45 & done

45 turned out better than many suspected. They thought Donald Trump would have a hard time lasting a year, let alone two. But in that time US unemployment hit a 50-year low and is considered full employment. The stock market went up 22%. Taxes went down 30%. The economy grew robustly. Corporate profits thundered higher. At times he actually looked presidential.

So it’s hard to tell exactly when the moment was that it all went to dog poo. Maybe it’s the admission he had tawdry affairs (with sleazy women) that he previously denied. And paid them. Or when he called Rex Tillerson, a monumental man and his former secretary of state, “dumb as a rock.” Or when his his lawyer, campaign manager and national security advisor were indicted for criminal acts. Maybe it when he thwarted the global climate change conference a day or two ago weeks after California burned, or refused to recognize that migrants are people with rights. Just like billionaires. Perhaps it was the crushing defeat in the midterm elections. Or having China’s greatest female businessperson arrested and shackled. Or when it became evident what’s coming, which could include impeachment.

Beats me. I am but a distant observer. But I’m also a financial dude. And Trump is now giving the markets more to worry about than he did to pump them up.

Trade wars, especially with China, are high on the list of anxieties. Tariffs may have brought a few more jobs to Toledo, but they’ve mercilessly increased the cost of doing business in America. GM alone is spending $1.4 billion more for stuff like steel. (And look what it just did.) The modern US economy has been built on free trade. Protectionism and nationalism are ancient, discredited concepts leading to isolation, xenophobia and reduced growth. Markets hate all that.

But the main Trump worry now is how to unwind this presidency.

Yes, he can be impeached and it looks like the Democratic-controlled House will try that. But unless Trump completely ticks off his Republican base in the Senate, the process will fail. Nonetheless, a move to dump him will stir strong passion, increase the nation’s divide and weaken the States on a world stage where it’s already seen as unreliable, quixotic and retrograde as its leader.

The Mueller investigation could uncover enough new crap that running for a second term of office in 2020 is impossible. His party will not endorse him. He’s toast. Or, Donald Trump can continue to campaign as he has for two years, go into an election year and – if the midterms were any indication – lose the contest. Victory seems off the table, unless the opposition hauls out Hilary Clinton again. (Perish the thought.)

In all of these scenarios, Trump will not go quietly, professionally or gentlemanly. He is no loser, ungracious in defeat and incapable of admitting a reversal. It’s his very core and essence to be combative and victorious. And tens of millions of people hoist him on their shoulders as the iconoclastic champion of their expectations. Will Mr. Trump call the next election rigged, claim millions of illegal and dead people voted against him, and refuse to leave office? Will his supporters, many of them well-equipped with weapons and F150s, challenge any anti-Trump outcome? What leader is there who can emerge and bridge this divide between left and right?

This year coming, 2019, is the third one of the Trump presidency. Typically this phase of the presidential cycle is the strongest for financial markets. If the Fed backs off on rate hikes, corporations keep making piles of dough and full employment continues, then investors can do well. But being overweight America is probably a bad idea.

However, the year coming also promises turmoil. Trump has no chief of staff. Mueller is nipping at his jugular. In Europe Macron is French toast after having dome the wrong thing (never give in to trolls or thugs), Merkel is heading for the exit and Brexit is soon to be Brokeit. Russia and China, crafty and playing the long game, are happy to increase their global influence as Trump flounders, alienates allies, fights with everybody and heads for inevitable oblivion.

As stated, the 45th president – an improbable, inexperienced egomaniac – did some good. He rattled cages, shook the established order, turned the chair upside down and brought populism to high office instead of letting it burn down the streets as is happening in France. The night he was elected stocks crashed in fear then surged in anticipation that this guy would do crazy things to goose the economy. And he did. Now the hangover. Everybody wonders how it can end well.

What to do?

Be aggressively conservative. Stay invested with balance and a broad diversification of assets. You have no idea how this will play out, and the best path through the chaos is the same one that led through the 2008 disaster, the 2011 debt ceiling crisis, the 2015 oil crash and the 2018 trade wars. The economic fundamentals are sound. The world is expanding. Companies are prospering.

Ignore the noise. And expect a lot.

206 comments ↓

#1 Reximus on 12.11.18 at 6:14 pm

Trump will be gone or irrelevant to politics this time next year

#2 Chester on 12.11.18 at 6:14 pm

Trump will win in 2020

#3 mrnick on 12.11.18 at 6:18 pm

Would you please expand “aggressively conservative?”
A sample allocation would be of immense help and value to those who are unable to afford your services.

#4 Reximus on 12.11.18 at 6:20 pm

Trump will win in 2020
—-
wanna bet? wont even be on the ticket

#5 life is good on 12.11.18 at 6:23 pm

Prediction: Trump wins in 2020 for a second term.

#6 Samuel on 12.11.18 at 6:25 pm

Trump has a chance of winning if he becomes a third party candidate. Much better odds of him getting a third of the votes than half.

#7 Unhinged Trader on 12.11.18 at 6:26 pm

Trump needs no chief of staff. Donald has his own way of doing things that involves establishing a “hub and spokes” system and that he needs people he trusts and who accept his personal judgment, judgment based on his own “feel” for situations.

I have seen this kind of methodology many times before in the world of sole owner entrepreneurial business. In that world egotism is king and the owner/wheeler dealer stands alone surrounded by underlings and consultants. For him they are nothing. They are expendable assets who exist only to serve his egocentric will and interests. They are there to be useful to him and can be disposed of whenever they are not. Trump operates exactly that way. Subordinates are disposable at will. Institutions mean nothing to such a man.

He needs a secretary to run errands for him, not a chief-of-staff who will inevitably wish to be a “player.” Anyone who takes the job is a fool.

#8 Nick on 12.11.18 at 6:30 pm

okay I have to reply to the GM comment that it Trumps fault. that is spin and can’t be further from the truth!!

GM did it to themselves! Their products have been crap! Their customers ditched them. GM employees themselves wouldn’t buy there own product. this is insider info.

…now back to reading the article…

#9 Debtslavecreator on 12.11.18 at 6:30 pm

The more the democrats attack him and deomonize him into 2020, the better his ratings will trend
If the Dumocrats are good enough Trump stands a good chance of winning in 2020 by a landslide
Dumb left wingers , bunch of useful idiots
I hate Socialists

#10 acdel on 12.11.18 at 6:32 pm

Yep, I predict that Trump will win in 2020; I am not an American; so I have no say or care to say about there politics.

One thing that I have noticed every time someone has said that he is going down he props right back up again; so many under estimate the mood of the general people and him. He will win!

#11 Trumpocalypse2018 on 12.11.18 at 6:33 pm

Trumpocalypse has begun. He is desperate to find major distractions from his issues. Understand what that means, and how easily things will be triggered.

PREPARE

#12 Reximus on 12.11.18 at 6:36 pm

Trump needs no chief of staff.

====

Did you see what happened today? Trump has no clue what he’s doing, and he knows it. Even Pelosi was trying to cover for his ineptitude

#13 Linda on 12.11.18 at 6:36 pm

Excellent advice regarding portfolios. Sadly, far too many will give in to the fear factor if markets continue to buck like a brahma bull – which, given Trump’s track record to date is as sure a bet one could ask for. Then there will be those who will try to time the market. I had my suspicions that various tweets by the current POTUS might have enabled those ‘in the know’ to make some serious coin. Thing is, given the revolving door of WH staff to date & the sheer random nature of various outbursts I now believe that not even Trump knows what he will do next. Or the time lag between thought & action is so short as to render any chance of making money off it via market manipulation virtually impossible. Maybe a computer algorithm could do something in time to take advantage.

For now, I continue to look at the factors that indicate that markets should provide a decent ROI & hope that the craziness won’t get so far out of hand that our monetary issues are the least of our concerns. Here is to a joyous holiday season & a stellar (& peaceful!) New Year.

#14 When Will They Raise Rates? on 12.11.18 at 6:40 pm

Impeach him on what grounds?

Campaign finance violations? Obama was simply fined for his campaign finance violations, not impeached… But it’s irrelevant, because Trump paid the woman with his own money (not a crime) and would have done so to protect his reputation even if he wasn’t running for office – and thus it’s not even considered a campaign expense.

Russian collusion? There is no such crime as “collusion”, but even if there were, there’s zero evidence. Ie, it didn’t happen.

Hacking the election? Lol

Again, impeach on what grounds???

There is however overwhelming evidence that the DNC, Hillary Clinton, Comey, Strozk, McCabe, Lynch, Rice, Ohr, Clapper, the CIA, NSA, MI6, etc… conspired to spy on the Trump campaign… using a phony dossier paid for by the DNC and Hillary Clinton to fraudulently attain a FISA warrant.

Remember when Hillary Clinton said “if that ***** wins, we’re all going to hang”?

That’s because many of the players mentioned above are all corrupt and if Trump were to discover their crimes… what did he say? “You’d be in jail”

Obama, the FBI and DoJ were complicit in the Clinton Foundation Uranium One scandal. They were also complicit in the selling of US advanced weaponry companies (in exchange for contributions to the Clinton Foundation) to Russia , who planned to use the tech to develop weapons to be used against the US. There is your Russian collusion. It’s being investigated right now, as I type this.

This is the biggest political scandal in US history and people are going to jail.

I’m afraid that in In 2021, Hillary and her co-conspirators will be in jail and Trump will still be president. Sorry to break it to all the Trump haters.

#15 Rex Moreland on 12.11.18 at 6:41 pm

Mike Pence for 2020! Trump for VP?

#16 Dolce Vita on 12.11.18 at 6:43 pm

Well Garth, there you again…rattling the Trump “I wear the chains I forged in life”. This ought to be good and make for some very entertaining reading tonight.

I might even stay up for the MELEE that is to come.

The image was hilarious.

And on Macron, there you go again…your typical N. American Lefty MSM 10 second snippet “now I know everything about Macron” believer. I’ll not bore you other than to say:

Inform yourself better (Hint: 18% popularity…makes Trump look like Lincoln or FDR).

Oh ya, POPULIST Italy…we’re happy with our Gov…everyone else in the EU is pissed with theirs and wants to secede. That must just grate your pure as the driven snow butt Garth..and wonder why????

Simple:

Salvini (enforce the Rule of Law incl. for “Migrants”, work to change the EU from within) & Di Maio (Anti-Corruption, Anti-Gov Graft, Confiscate Mafia chattels at breath taking speed, etc.) doing what they PROMISED. Still a LOT of corruption in Italy, but they’re chipping away at it every day (hard to unwind decades of crime in an immediate gratification instant).

Imagine that…doing what they promised.

You know, just like Justin (sorry, I could not resist but payback’s a female dog).

#17 Danny on 12.11.18 at 6:54 pm

Nice overview…..in uncharted waters.

Yes as you say “The modern US economy has been built on free trade”….yet Trump’s tribal followers….both rich for saving taxes…..and the others like Trump…are the nationalist you say are wrong in their belief.

Remember dictator Mussolini also brought his family members into nice government jobs….with no qualifications.

Trump and family were always arguing against Government as a developer and real estate thug…that is their core.

Now though he loves government especially because ….it makes him happy that he and his family are not having to pay for their security like in the past….now that tax payers will do that for them.

Trump does not believe in free anything….free trade or free anything else….unless it’s a ” free get out of jail card” to save his “A” and his family members too.

The investigation into the Trump wrong doings just keep surfacing more and more from his vindictive underground world……no wonder why the investigation can’t wrap up!

And we thought the Mafia was difficult to lock up!

#18 diharv on 12.11.18 at 7:03 pm

#15 Mike Pence for 2020 ? Judging by his ZERO words in the Oval Office meeting today with Trump , Schumer and Pelosi , he serves a better purpose as an off white background tapestry . I tend to agree with Joe Scarborough from MSNBC that Trump will NOT run in 2020 but will bow out and return to profiting personally from his time in office , as he is probably doing now.

#19 JSS on 12.11.18 at 7:06 pm

Enbridge – 10% dividend increase announced today.

Woo hoo! Gonna take the family to kfc tonight! Toonie Tuesday!

Rub tummy

#20 SoggyShorts on 12.11.18 at 7:08 pm

#15 Rex Moreland on 12.11.18 at 6:41 pm
Mike Pence for 2020! Trump for VP?
******************
The 22nd and then 12th amendments make this difficult.

#21 SoggyShorts on 12.11.18 at 7:08 pm

Whops was thinking about 3rd term laws (shudder)

#22 acdel on 12.11.18 at 7:12 pm

Off topic, kinda, but never a doubt on my part! Interesting I say…

Let the plot unravel, fascinating!

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6485297/Huawei-CFO-HUSBAND-KIDS-two-multi-million-dollar-homes-sureties-bail.html

#23 Hillbilly Pete on 12.11.18 at 7:15 pm

#3 mrnick on 12.11.18 at 6:18 pm
“Would you please expand “aggressively conservative?”

Aggressively conservative is: A.some land to grow your own veggies and raise some livestock B. gold safely buried on said property C.plenty of ammo in case the hordes invade D.get a license to grow weed for income.

#24 BobC on 12.11.18 at 7:16 pm

Wow….

“It isn’t so much that liberals are ignorant. It’s just that they know so many things that aren’t so.”

Ronald Reagan

#25 akashic record on 12.11.18 at 7:18 pm

#12 Reximus on 12.11.18 at 6:36 pm

Did you see what happened today? Trump has no clue what he’s doing, and he knows it. Even Pelosi was trying to cover for his ineptitude

Yeah…

The Democrat leaders preferred to discuss border security in private.

Pelosi arrogantly pretended to lecture Trump about the branches of government, while kept asking why Trump would not want a vote on a legislation that would never pass, because of her party.

Schumer said he and Nancy had a plan, the same as last year (and the previous decade). “If it was good then, what’s wrong with it now?” (beside the millions of illegal immigrants living now in the US, who successfully exploited the lack of border security).

Anyone who watching this still doesn’t understand why life-long career politicians lost the election to an outsider, never will.

#26 young & foolish on 12.11.18 at 7:19 pm

Just what I thought ….. more and more volatility with fewer places to hide. You might be making some money over here, while losing it over there.

#27 Mactep on 12.11.18 at 7:22 pm

с новым годом!

#28 palebird on 12.11.18 at 7:25 pm

#14 Impeach him on what grounds?

I agree 100 %. This is a pitiful show put on by the Democrats.

#29 reynolds531 on 12.11.18 at 7:25 pm

I can’t predict the market. Except CPD which will continue to plummet. Until I finally throw in the towel and sell it at a UGE loss. On the day my sell order settles, it will immediately stage a UGE rally back to $20.

Because it hates me.

#30 AK on 12.11.18 at 7:25 pm

“Ignore the noise. And expect a lot.”
====================================
Indeed. President Trump will be in office for another 6 years.

I am more concerned about Canada’s future.

#31 For those about to flop... on 12.11.18 at 7:26 pm

Race to a million.

This one I’ve been watching drift down looks like it’s a candidate to be Vancouver’s next sub one million sale.

The details…

1578 e 22nd ave, Vancouver.

Originally asking 1.15( was reduced to this number)

Now asking 998k

Assessment 1.31

So I wrote 1.15 for originally asking, but I started paying attention to it when it had already been reduced to this number.

The pulled out the buyers bleach and tried to wipe up as much history as they could.

Zealty and Zolo show it as just coming on the market but Zolo still has the 1.15 number up if you google the address.

Reduce your house as many times, or increase your price, I couldn’t care less just stop with the shady behaviour on what will be most Canadians most expensive purchase.

Anyway,once again this on is on the market for 25% less than assessed on the bottom rung of the Vancouver ladder.

If you’re gonna try and spot clean with bleach, pull out a mop and bucket and clean up the rest of the industry as well…

M44BC

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/1578-east-22nd-avenue

#32 Investx on 12.11.18 at 7:29 pm

#14 When Will They Raise Rates, educating the people, especially those who get their news from left-wing biased mainstream media.

#33 Brian Ripley on 12.11.18 at 7:30 pm

The thing about Trump is that he is a psychopathic liar with an autocratic agenda that can easily be described as fascist according to Robert Hare’s description of a psychopathic personality as well as Umberto Eco’s definition of Facism
http://www.chpc.biz/history-readings/liar-liar

The reason why the republicans who still hold an office after the last midterms and surf on Trump’s wake with their noses pinched, is because of the underlying long term GOP political game plan to rewrite the constitution when necessary to implement a plan that “includes harsher laws to undermine unions, privatizing everything from schools to health care and Social Security, and keep as many of us as possible from voting.” and “The capitalist radical right has been working not simply to change who rules, but to fundamentally alter the rules of democratic governance.” read Nancy MacLean’s ‘Democracy in Chains’ or see her recent april 2018 Youtube presentation https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lk2d-LeFlr8

And of course the ideological war is international and Trump easily aligns himself with other global autocrats especially if he thinks he can enrich himself.

This is a dangerous form of capitalism if it even is capitalism. Putin is the current master at this game, Xi Jinping is another.

I am surprised that so many in this comment section present themselves anonymously as Trumpniks; do they want the U.S. and Canada and Europe to model themselves after Chinese and Russian societies?

Meanwhile here in Canada we have serious problems and one of them is our real estate market. My big city chart is up:
http://www.chpc.biz/6-canadian-metros.html

#34 Doug t on 12.11.18 at 7:33 pm

The “noise” is going to be deafening in 2019

RATM

#35 Ustabe on 12.11.18 at 7:33 pm

Would you please expand “aggressively conservative?”
A sample allocation would be of immense help and value to those who are unable to afford your services.

I think you might be surprised at what you can and can not afford. Its that attitude holding you back, right?

Being a choosy beggar, asking for a sample…for free…of something that really needs be individually prepared is not going to happen.

#36 NOSTRADAMUS on 12.11.18 at 7:38 pm

FILLER, WHEN SPEAKING!
Wow! Garth you went way over the top on your rant on my good friend Donald. Basically all filler. Filler consists of empty extraneous language that pads your sentences without adding any additional meaning. It’s there but it doesn’t nourish. Garth, almost everyone, you included. will continue to believe whatever they want to believe, which is mostly whatever they currently believe. People will continue to look for views that support their current views, “confirmation bias”. With the internet, everyone will find plenty of evidence for their current beliefs, no matter how wrong they are. Garth being a somewhat humble man, I point out there is a difference between humility and false humility. Sometimes you have to speak the truth if you believe it will be helpful to someone, even if they don’t want to hear it. In the age of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act. You can trust me as the teller of truth in the land of gypsies, tramps and thieves.

#37 MF on 12.11.18 at 7:39 pm

Zero chance any of that occurs. Expect a second term.

No competition to rival Trump for miles.

MF

#38 Yukon Elvis on 12.11.18 at 7:42 pm

I blame the Democrats for electing Trump. Eight years of Obama’s politically correct race and gender politics, the prospect of more of the same with Hillary, and the shafting of Bernie Sanders all contributed to the Trumpet getting elected. Voting for Trump was a protest vote and a loud one. If the Dems have not figured this and don’t come up with a leader and a platform that the average American can relate to out the Trumpet may return in 2020.

#39 Ronaldo on 12.11.18 at 7:43 pm

#7 Unhinged Trader on 12.11.18 at 6:26 pm

I believe you pretty much hit it on the nose. Basically how I see it too. A one man show. But he does get the job done and does command a great deal of respect from a lot of agencies under his leadership. Unfortunately, he will probably twitter himself out of existence. He needs to mind his mouth. The one thing that he did recently that many who were backing him may have second thoughts is calling Rex Tillerson dumb as a rock and lazy. Total lack of respect. That one got to me. Rex Tillerson’s net worth in 2016 was estimated at 180 million and expected to rise to 300 million the next 10 years. Much, much more than Mr. T. He didn’t need the job.

#40 Long-Time Lurker on 12.11.18 at 7:43 pm

This is a question I have from yesterday’s comments section.

What’s so great about Sun Tzu’s The Art of War? I tried to read it a few times and always stop after the first chapter because I think, “This is *&[email protected] obvious.”

#41 akashic record on 12.11.18 at 7:46 pm

Vancouver home equities set Meng free:)
At least it’s not her husband and kid. What a wild idea.

“A Vancouver realtor who helped Meng’s family purchase their Vancouver homes said he will pledge his $1.8-million property and act as surety, the court heard. An insurance agent who has been a Canadian citizen since 1999 and once worked with Meng at Huawei also offered to act as surety. He said he has known Meng since the mid-1990s and is pledging $500,000 of equity from his $1.4-million home.

The third surety is a homemaker. Her husband used to work at Huawei and knew Meng well, the court heard. She pledged $850,000 of equity from her home on Vancouver’s west side.

Another surety is one of Meng’s Vancouver neighbours who says she is close to the family, particularly with the parents of Meng’s husband. She pledged $50,000 in cash.”

#42 Figmund Sreud on 12.11.18 at 7:51 pm

45 turned out better than many suspected.
——————————————

Let’s acknowlage just one thing:… Trump, so far, does what every successful US administrations systematicaly do, that is, hand out pork to his supporters at the expense of his rivals. Such behaviour continues to help to shore up his base. And if he manages to hand out even more pork to his voter base between now and the next presidential election, the Democratic dream of securing the next presidency will almost certainly go whistling down the wind. Just sayin’…

Best,

F.S.: Calgary, Alberta.

#43 AGuyInVancouver on 12.11.18 at 7:53 pm

#7 Unhinged Trader on 12.11.18 at 6:26 pm
Trump needs no chief of staff. Donald has his own way of doing things that involves establishing a “hub and spokes” system and that he needs people he trusts and who accept his personal judgment, judgment based on his own “feel” for situations.

I have seen this kind of methodology many times before in the world of sole owner entrepreneurial business…
_ _ _
Too bad running the world’s largest economy is nothing like running a small sole proprietor business.

All the delusionals saying “6 more years” forget one thing: Trump hates to lose. When the polling numbers show him going down to certain defeat he will find a way to not run. In 2016 he won just by getting the nomination, like many others I believe he never expected to win the presidency. In 2020 a loss will make him a Loser, and he can’t abide that label.

#44 acdel on 12.11.18 at 7:53 pm

#31 For those about to flop…

Interesting but unfortunately unsurprising, it seems to be the signs of the time. Not looking good!

Thanks…

#45 Ronaldo on 12.11.18 at 7:57 pm

Further to Rex Tillerson. He did ok considering he is dumb as a rock. Not so dumb after all.

http://time.com/5197763/rex-tillerson-net-worth-tax-break/

#46 Fish on 12.11.18 at 7:59 pm

Just sayin thank you haven’t read yet and I’m not sure

#47 john m on 12.11.18 at 8:00 pm

Aggressive conservatives?…lol aggressive at what?Building self worth?,giving free reign to the bankers with cmhc guaranteeing ridiculous loans,driving up housing costs,creating a false economy to buy votes at the taxpayers expense……….and so much more…may God help our youth!

#48 Samuel on 12.11.18 at 8:04 pm

So unpredictable. Dow futures are up 100 points while Trump says he may intervene on the Meng Wanzhou case if it helps with the biggest trade deal ever made. I still think the US bull market might power through 2019. Keeping my US exposure as is.

#49 Stats freak on 12.11.18 at 8:04 pm

What exactly does “aggressively conservative” entail? I have 15,000 to invest in new ETFs, any specific suggestions??

#50 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.11.18 at 8:04 pm

@#31 Flop.

Yep. A co-worker is watching a duplex neighbor in Coquitlam slowly whittle itself from $899…to $815…to $799…to $750…just reduced again to $719….no bites at all……and it aint even pink snow time yet.

#51 For those about to flop... on 12.11.18 at 8:10 pm

Race to 900k.

Here’s another struggler that chose to do it the proper way.

A few weeks ago I showed 720 Woodland sold less than 900k, half decent overlooking a park,now someone in the same area is facing to same challenges.

These guys started something they can’t finish in this market and are now looking for someone with deeper pockets.

The new owners might have to eat sawdust for a while yet.

Location might save it but there are totally liveable options around as well for the same money.

The details…

2547 Woodland Dr,Vancouver.

Originally asking 1.05

Now asking 965k

Assessment 1.13

So the gap isn’t as extreme between the ask and the assessments so the previous house, but even though you can get a detached property below a million dollars people aren’t clamouring to buy them.

Hence, prices will keep going down in the immediate future,most likely until the next provincial election where voters will see a fork in the road…

M44BC

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/2547-woodland-drive

#52 Bob Dog on 12.11.18 at 8:13 pm

“Protectionism and nationalism are ancient, discredited concepts leading to isolation, xenophobia and reduced growth. Markets hate all that.”

Vancouver and eventually Canada will go down the trump path because the standard of living has plunged for the next generation. Globalism means everyone has the same living standards weather you live in India or Canada. The elite own almost everything and humanity works for basic food and shelter.

#53 Randy on 12.11.18 at 8:22 pm

#Trump2020Landslide

#54 Bob on 12.11.18 at 8:31 pm

Garth, smart people ignore what the media says about President Trump and what they imagine what he says might mean, and look at the actual results of what his administration has done.

The difference between the two is remarkable.

So you are listening to the imagination of media types, who help people who can’t think imagine they know what is happening and why it’s all bad.

So, here you are doing the same thing. The Russians had zero influence on the election. Or that the amazing level of deregulation is incidental to the long term heath of the economy.

Remember, the economy is cyclical. The market determines what the cycle, not Presidents, Prime Ministers, central bankers et al.

#55 Paul on 12.11.18 at 8:39 pm

#43 AGuyin Vancouver
the delusionals saying “6 more years” forget one thing: Trump hates to lose. When the polling numbers show him going down to certain defeat he will find a way to not run. In 2016 he won just by getting the nomination, like many others I believe he never expected to win the presidency. In 2020 a loss will make him a Loser, and he can’t abide that label.
————————————————————————————————
So 2016 he won by getting nominated, never believed he would win but runs to make himself a loser.???

#56 DON on 12.11.18 at 8:42 pm

I got this off twitter, so probably fake news or spin…I hope…FFS!

“BREAKING: Interim OPP Commissioner Brad Blair alleges Premier Doug Ford’s chief of staff asked the police force “to purchase a large camper type vehicle … modified to specifications the premier’s office would provide us” and keep the costs “off the books.”

Robert Benzie – Toronto Star

#57 S.Bby on 12.11.18 at 8:43 pm

People generally get the government they deserve and when I see the knuckle draggers who are Trump supporters it’s hard to believe these people still exist in the 21st century.

#58 Blacksheep on 12.11.18 at 8:47 pm

CBC just reported Trump said:

“He may intervene in the wah wey, CFO case”

Doing the Chinese a solid? Now you, owe me…

Does anybody think todays little on camera blindsiding
of Pelosi and Schumer, as he passively aggravates the shit out of them with the world watching, was an accident?

Many underestimate tactical behavior of Donald Trump.

#59 Fish on 12.11.18 at 8:47 pm

still believe I’m a cougar, thanks

#60 S.Bby on 12.11.18 at 8:48 pm

Regarding Trump supporters, Remember what George Carlin said: think of how stupid the average person is, and realize that half of them are stupider than that.

#61 pay your taxes on 12.11.18 at 8:58 pm

Will Mr. Trump call the next election rigged, claim millions of illegal and dead people voted against him, and refuse to leave office?”

No Garth, that’s what Democrats do. Just like the woman in Georgia who refused to concede long after the writing was on the wall. Up to her eyeballs in personal debt too, a fine example for young people. Better luck next time.

That was called a ‘recount’ which I believe was legally mandated. You sound like a a Trump bot. – Garth

#62 Bdwy sktn on 12.11.18 at 9:09 pm

Could another 2008 happen?

IMF is warning so, apparently.
Woah.

Try researching before you post. Helps mitigate looking like an idiot. – Garth

#63 Bdwy sktn on 12.11.18 at 9:17 pm

I’m used to it!
…..
Buy then what does this mean…
Lipton, the No. 2 to IMF head Christine Lagarde, said there is a pressing need to work towards limiting the next, inevitable downturn to a “garden variety recession,” as/// the risks of another 2008-style global meltdown remain high.///

Just read the entire speech. – Garth

#64 Ex-Cowtown on 12.11.18 at 9:18 pm

DELETED

#65 BobC on 12.11.18 at 9:22 pm

DELETED

#66 Deplorable Dude on 12.11.18 at 9:33 pm

Trump’s finished…..

Awesome video of the hundreds of times the MSN thinking Trump was done….I pity the poor person who had to watch all that garbage to put this compilation together.

https://youtu.be/qjUvfZj-Fm0

In other news today China dropped tariffs on US Autos from 40% down to 15%.

Yep Trump has no idea what he is doing…..

#67 Asterix1 on 12.11.18 at 9:33 pm

Toronto Star
“Modest price gains expected in real estate in 2019”

Interesting. Oh wait! The article starts with: “Canadian realtors are predicting…….”

Journalism is dead in Canada. Got ca$h? Will print your lies. No questions asked.

https://www.thestar.com/business/real_estate/2018/12/11/modest-price-gains-expected-in-real-estate-in-2019.html

#68 akashic record on 12.11.18 at 9:35 pm

Victory seems off the table, unless the opposition hauls out Hilary Clinton again. (Perish the thought.)

During the last election for the presidency I had the impression that you wholeheartedly stood with her.

What has changed? What if Hillary won? Would you perish the thought now?

This blog often stated the choice US voters faced in 2016 was appalling. – Garth

#69 900k on 12.11.18 at 9:44 pm

#51 Flop

Interesting!
Last year, I would have sworn that Vancouver was well past the days where SFHomes went for less than 7 digits.

I guess not.

Now the question is, how low can it go?

I have a (theoretical) estimate…

If the average $400K SFH in the year 2000, would have underwent the normal inflation rate (per B.o.C.)…

…then it would be worth $559K in 2018.

Crazy!

#70 C7.R on 12.11.18 at 9:47 pm

#8 Nick…
You mean crappy cars like a 2009 Pontiac G8 with a small block 6.0L V8, rear wheel drive and limited slip diff, which still garners complements after 10 years on the road, or like a crappy 2014 Enclave whose recent Acura MDX owning passenger could not believe how quiet it is at speed insisting it must be brand new…. You confuse crap with awesomeness.

#71 DON on 12.11.18 at 9:49 pm

#37 MF on 12.11.18 at 7:39 pm

Zero chance any of that occurs. Expect a second term.

No competition to rival Trump for miles.

MF
***************

Anything is possible.

Trump would have to clear the media’s impeachment campaign (justified or not). He would have to be scandal free until the next election. Like Garth stated he bought populism against the establishment. Markets went up etc.

“He rattled cages, shook the established order, turned the chair upside down”

I was chatting with my BIL and he has a different opinion of Trump. He doesn’t care for Trump’s behaviour ‘but he is shaking things up and cutting through the crap’. Certain things can be overlooked if Trump is fighting the good fight.

And then there is the Saturday Night Live skit I watched between Pelosi and Trump White House. Once again Trump was cutting to the chase and trying to cut a deal right then and there to the shock of the establishment (it’s all about perception).

Then there’s China. In light of the recent Canada/China/US relations Trump having already picked a fight with China, may look like a defender to his base and the swing vote. It seems that the international community is jockeying and picking alliances. Fentanyl was hitting both the US and Canada, associated money laundering, real estate etc. Then China threatens Canada, and to a certain extent we fall naturally under the safety of our neighbour. Vancouver doesn’t need anymore anti foreigner sentiment.

IF Trump has no more scandals, the republicans will back him, they just want to remain in power. China is Trumps chance to look tough and stir US patriotism, Australia and Japan appear to be following along and Canada will slowly follow. Trump is unpredictable and entertaining to all. Like watching a goalie getting his fingers skated over.

A second term is plausible. Voters seems to vote for two terms. Trump’s behaviour was well known when he ran for President.

I am not hoping, just saying. Unless the Democrats get The Rock, Oprah or Harrison Ford to run.

I am waiting for Trumps tweets to Macron and May saying ‘Your Fired! I told you so’. Trump may be a shinning star at the moment.

Time will tell.

#72 Baa on 12.11.18 at 9:57 pm

#29 reynolds531
Sorry it hates you but if that’s the case please sell soon.

#73 Dominoes Lining Up on 12.11.18 at 10:02 pm

Real estate’s slow motion implosion in the 416 is already hitting government revenues, even with a “slight slowdown”.

Will this be a biggie over time?

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/star-columnists/2018/12/11/land-transfer-tax-shortfall-signals-trouble-ahead-unless-toronto-council-changes-course.html

The article estimates Toronto is already being hit with a $100 million loss of income in the next year due to reduced land transfer taxes paid thanks to fewer property sales.

People I know who deal with managing property taxes in the 905 and 416 say this will become part of a major budget crisis well before the next elections in 2022. There is nowhere to raise the needed capital to keep the buses moving and citizens are already screaming that they cannot afford any property tax increases.

Where will they get the money to fund needed municipal services?

This is one big, wobbling domino…….

#74 AK on 12.11.18 at 10:03 pm

#43 AGuyInVancouver on 12.11.18 at 7:53 pm

“All the delusionals saying “6 more years” forget one thing: Trump hates to lose. When the polling numbers show him going down to certain defeat he will find a way to not run.”
====================================
You mean the polling numbers that called for Hillary Clinton winning in a landslide on November 08, 2016 ??

Remember, polls are fake…

#75 Another Albertan on 12.11.18 at 10:17 pm

It’s been a long while… Life has been volatile in 2018 and hanging out here hasn’t been a priority. To make up for time, here are some Calgary anecdotes…

Cenovus announced its 2019 capital budget. They have a $100M commitment to build out the space they contracted for over half a decade ago. $100M for desks, chairs, structured cabling, and frosted glass walls. 7% of their budget. I shake my head.

My BiL is a VP at a significant manufacturer. A week ago, his CEO told him to find 10% of heads for January. The reasoning is that the CEO’s discussions with the CEOs of the homebuilders is that the latter are going to immediately cut 10 to 20% of their staff. Two days later, I talk to another executive whose buddy is a VP at one of said homebuilders… they just toasted 20% of their staff… over 70 people.

The follow-on stories are that the bigger builders who had still been building 7 or 8 spec homes per year will be down to doing 1 or 2 next year.

Another colleague owns a specialized manufacturing company that supports the homebuilders. He had to pivot in the last year to supporting the construction of barns. Yes. Barns. The only thing that is saving his business is helping the ag sector. Buddy hasn’t taken a paycheck in well over a year.

It’s a total bloodbath in the Calgary housing market. Edmonton is comparatively stable from the insider stories I’ve heard.

I was looking at 60-year old re-done split level last week. Very nice place. Even my Edmonton housing bear buddy Hilly McScottish admitted it was a lot of nice house for the money. Originally listed in September for $825k. It was priced last week at $700k… 15% lower in less than 90 days with 3 price drops. The MLS listing was pulled last week… not because it was sold, but because the owners rented it. Turns out they were running concurrent sale and rental ads… first transaction wins. I can’t wait to see what it lists for in the future.

Everyone else’s mileage may vary.

#76 For those about to flop... on 12.11.18 at 10:19 pm

pm
#51 Flop

Interesting!
Last year, I would have sworn that Vancouver was well past the days where SFHomes went for less than 7 digits.

I guess not.

Now the question is, how low can it go?

I have a (theoretical) estimate…

If the average $400K SFH in the year 2000, would have underwent the normal inflation rate (per B.o.C.)…

…then it would be worth $559K in 2018.

Crazy!

///////////////

I’m not sure as I’m just a volunteer real estate reporter.

This is fact.

The lowest I saw a house in East Vancouver sell for this year was 775k

The lowest I saw a house on the Westside of Vancouver sell for this year was 1.4m

Next year?…

M44BC

#77 not 1st on 12.11.18 at 10:22 pm

Migration is NOT a right. Citizenship is a privilege and countries have sovereignty over their borders and who gets in, not the corrupt UN.

How does paying off a hooker who threatened extortion a felony. Its not. Its all grandstanding. If the kavanauh hearings are any indication the dems should go for it.

Dems have lost 1000 seats of power recently so their little 40 seat fit is a minor blip. Trump will have it all in hand firmly in 2020.

#78 TRWM on 12.11.18 at 10:25 pm

Nationalism is an ancient concept for the 1%, you mean. Everyone else in the world cares about these things because they live in the real world.

#79 Stan on 12.11.18 at 10:27 pm

Mueller is barking up the wrong tree. He should be going after the Clintons. He has nothing on Trump. It’s just a witch hunt which will end in Mueller’s embarrassment. All the better for Trump.

#80 tccontrarian on 12.11.18 at 10:31 pm

“Be aggressively conservative.”

Or “concervatively aggressive”. Is there a difference?

“Stay invested with balance and a broad diversification of assets.”

Or… be a ‘pig’ – as per Stanley D. (and concentrate in areas that are historically undervalued). Energy and precious metals fit the bill currently, IMO
—-

“You have no idea how this will play out,…”

Some have a pretty good idea how this is going to end (but no-one wants to hear the bad news). Chances are that 2019 will be far worse than 2018, 2nd Quarter onwards.

Not one mention of the historic levels of debt (government, corporate, mortgage, auto, student …)?

Is that to be considered as ‘noise’??

The next month or two (or three…), should be good for practically all sectors. After that, be very, very cautious!
That’s how I see things…but I’m not Tater!

TCC

#81 Smoking Man on 12.11.18 at 10:35 pm

T2 sugar and spice and everything nice

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-11/canadian-personal-bankruptcies-are-surging-br

#82 DON on 12.11.18 at 10:39 pm

#40 Long-Time Lurker on 12.11.18 at 7:43 pm

This is a question I have from yesterday’s comments section.

What’s so great about Sun Tzu’s The Art of War? I tried to read it a few times and always stop after the first chapter because I think, “This is *&[email protected] obvious.”
****************

The theory is obvious but the application, implementation and discipline are the Art.

#83 Robert B on 12.11.18 at 10:41 pm

Garth
Don’t waste your time on Trump.
Worry about Canada’s and Ontario’s
deficits that have no end in sight.
We soon will be seeing a recession with
no ammo in the chamber.

I always liked Harper.
A proper PM and the love for hockey.

#84 Terry on 12.11.18 at 10:45 pm

TRUMP 2020! He will win again. Please ignore the negative media spin lies about Trump…..remember how that worked out for Democrats and Liberals in 2016? Secondly, don’t bet against America. Re-balance your weightings to include more U.S. equities, more global growth exposure and reduce your exposure to Canada. Canada is slowly witnessing capital flight and it will take years to get her back on course……if at all.

#85 Ex-Cowtown on 12.11.18 at 10:45 pm

Mea culpa. What I meant to say, in less colorful language, was that Trump has committed no crime and that even the most anti-Trump factions of the Supreme Court will not be able to wrap their brains around convicting someone when no crime occurred.

Any comparison with Watergate or Bill Clinton’s problems are flawed. With Watergate, the initial crime (Breaking and Entering) was readily apparent. In Clinton’s case, the crimes (perjury and obstruction of justice stemmed from the sexual harassment of Paula Jones) were the cause of Clinton’s impeachment.

In Trump’s case calls for impeachment began moments after his election and all investigations have focused on finding a crime, some crime, any crime.

Having said all that, the Democrats will almost certainly attempt impeachment, but in the absence of a crime, it’ll likely backfire on them.

#86 SmarterSquirrel on 12.11.18 at 10:52 pm

For those with portfolios large enough to invest in stocks, all you can do in turbulent times (like whatever happens with Trump and the markets in the next year), is revisit the math and fundamentals on the stocks you want to invest in. I look at a few key factors among other things… https://smartersquirrel.com/invest/dividend%20investing%20lesson%20with%20brookfield%20infrastructure%20partners When the market undervalues a stock with good fundamentals, consider it a sale on good stocks.

A good place to start to understand stock investing is reading The Intelligent Investor and to keep learning from there.

#87 Dolce Vita on 12.11.18 at 11:01 pm

Yup, MELEE. Good you can get the blood pumping in people Garth, indeed. Some very good rebuttals.

Thank you for the good read this AM…Buona Mattina. It’s good to read what people really think and a learning experience.

Hands down the Great Canadian Blog.

#88 Marcus on 12.11.18 at 11:05 pm

The utter lack of political knowledge on this pathetic blog is stunning. Trump may or may not run in 2020 but with the arrest of the Huawei ceo and other pressing factors in the South China Sea the election will be on a wartime footing. Or at least prepping for war with China footing. The American air-force is now producing mock J-20 Chinese stealth aircraft to train their pilots. Air to air combat over the South China Sea. Think it’s impossible? Guess again. Phantom works and skunk works scuttlebutt is heavily leaning towards war with China within 5 years. The amount of $$$$ pouring into programs is stunning. China had better get ready for another Century of humiliation if they keep on their present trajectory.

#89 Ronaldo on 12.11.18 at 11:10 pm

Someone’s been drinking the kool aid.

https://www.thestar.com/business/real_estate/2018/12/11/modest-price-gains-expected-in-real-estate-in-2019.html

#90 Remembrancer on 12.11.18 at 11:14 pm

#40 Long-Time Lurker on 12.11.18 at 7:43 pm
This is a question I have from yesterday’s comments section.

What’s so great about Sun Tzu’s The Art of War? I tried to read it a few times and always stop after the first chapter because I think, “This is *&[email protected] obvious.”
—————————————————————
Early tome that has been co-opted and mass popularised by 1980s business-types – while seemingly obvious and “famous-for-being-famous” (like Machiavelli’s The Prince ) its 13 chapters lay out succinctly an overall strategy of what to do when you need to face a bunch of people with sharp pointy sticks that want to take your stuff…

#91 jim on 12.11.18 at 11:20 pm

The president has a flair for winning over working-class voters that the Democrats can’t rival, the singer admits. In short, Trump was born to run, and may be unstoppable.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/exclusive-interview-bruce-springsteen-on-how-donald-trump-won-over-his-blue-collar-fans-8r5z5bn69

#92 Dolce Vita on 12.11.18 at 11:23 pm

“…migrants are people with rights.”

If you think Trump is bad on this, then there’s Denmark (from the great Nordic Socialist empaths):

“Denmark plans to isolate ‘unwanted’ migrants on remote island”

https://edition.cnn.com/2018/12/05/europe/denmark-immigrant-island-scli-intl/index.html

And from Ici Radio Москва, a.k.a. CBC (not to be outdone by some tawdry US Lefty MSM outlet):

“Denmark treating migrants like ‘inferior race’ by sending them to remote island: MP”

https://www.cbc.ca/radio/asithappens/as-it-happens-thursday-edition-1.4935124/denmark-treating-migrants-like-inferior-race-by-sending-them-to-remote-island-mp-1.4935751

And from the 1989 NOBEL PEACE PRIZE winner, the Dalai Lama:

“Europe belongs to the Europeans”. Refugees should return to their native countries to rebuild them.

“Receive them, help them, educate them… but ultimately they should develop their own country,”

https://www.france24.com/en/20180912-dalai-lama-says-europe-belongs-europeans

Could not resist the article reference from…Macron’s France. There are many other sources out there.

—————————————-

PS:

Crazy World Garth, indeed.

What a difference a bridge can make between Copenhagen and Malmo in Socialist attitude.

Then, there’s Tibet…curiously, not a word from CNN or Ici Radio Москва (heaven forbid Lefty: see no evil, hear no…).

#93 Robert B on 12.11.18 at 11:25 pm

Garth
Migrants should not have more rights than the citizens country they are trying to enter. Every person that I know came to Canada through the proper immigration rules.
My parents never had an American Express “ front of the line credit card.

#94 Drill Baby Drill on 12.11.18 at 11:34 pm

Republican party ? You mean the Trump party. Trump will run and win in 2020. No question. No one can really deal with him. People like the fact that he is turning things and shaking things up we need it. However he could also trigger a semi major incident with China, Russia or Iran.

#95 stage1dave on 12.11.18 at 11:43 pm

I’ll shy away from making predictions about 2020, because I’m still amazed “The Apprentice” lasted as long as it did…this guy has a real talent for fuzzifying mudification beyond recognition, and making people come back for more.

If nothing else, he’s proving to be the most entertaining president ever. Like some reality freak show that just won’t end (despite how distasteful one finds it) not one week has gone by without some tasty tidbit being spoken, tweeted, shouted, screamed, shouted about, alluded to, or alleged…or alleged to have been covered up, or created, or whatever.

#7 Unhinged Trader; I think that’s a great assessment, and the prime reason why “good” people won’t stick around. I too know many, many businesses that function pretty well with a “grand poobah” in charge; but they don’t deal outside of their respective range of business expertise…I would imagine running a country would force you to, plus having to do some delegating now ‘n then.

I do get the impression Mr. Trump sees himself as CEO of America, Inc.

Looking ahead, I can see a lot of prospective employees refusing a position in a Trump WH because there’s little (if any) job security. Well, that and having to wear cast-iron underwear would get a bit uncomfortable pretty quick…

If nothing else, he’s certainly shown America just how many fault lines are extant throughout the union (highlited them, if you will) because of his polarizing influence; and as a result might bring a political/economical/sociological volcano to eruption a bit quicker. Like lancing a boil, might as well get it over with…

Can’t leave this subject alone without commenting on his statements about Fed policy and the continual (and unending) military misadventures overseas; his clear statements about changing some of the former and scaling back the latter have obviously been overridden. The man may be a lot of things, but I doubt being dumb is one of them.

Despite his intentions, there’s no way he has not figured out the two untouchables in America: or has not had the sanctity of these areas explained to him by advisers and staff. They are Domestic Economic and Foreign Policy (hey, maybe he even listened)

But if he read, he might be able to familiarize himself with how interfering in those two areas have worked out for a bunch of other people…or perhaps he’s high enuff up the food chain to know, and all this idle chatter on twitter and in speeches is just pandering to his base?

Regardless, never a dull moment. Being very lightly invested at the moment, I’m not too worried about the short-range effect on markets…more concerned about potentially ruinous trade wars and the resulting long-term effect on the markets…and Canada in general.

(Well, that and an accidental causation of WW III…that would be bad stuff)

#96 Jackie Letterman on 12.12.18 at 12:00 am

French people are trolls and thugs for opposing Macron’s taxes? What? Brits want their country back from the EU, what’s wrong with that? Migrants have rights in their own countries, not in any country. Good Lord, imagine what would happen if all six billion in third world countries had a right to settle in Canada? You’re kidding right? Canadians have rights, Trudeau doesn’t agree, but you agree with that snivelling poseur? Your shame not ours. Trump has come as if by the hand of God to rebalance the out of control global nightmare that Soros and Obama set into play. If you don’t love Canada, respect citizen rights or prefer to be judged and ruled by EU facists leave us. We are ready for war to protect your grandchildren and neighbours even if you don’t have the guts to protect yourself.

#97 Oilaphant on 12.12.18 at 12:15 am

#75 – the problem with this housing market is that people think buying an 800k house for 700k is some kind of deal. I just bought a move in ready originsl owner estate sale house in Edmonton for 265k. Doesnt need any work, aim to have it paid off in 10 years or less. Theres a whole new generation of people who aint valuing houses at what most current owners believe theyre worth.

Let the bloodbath begin…

#98 condopoor on 12.12.18 at 12:17 am

I needed this post.

#99 For those about to flop... on 12.12.18 at 12:22 am

Recent sale report.

The owners of this court ordered sale just got bashed over the head with the gavel.

The details…

1727 e 22nd ave Vancouver.

Paid 1.77 September 2015

Originally asking 3.3

Just sold for 1.6

Assessment 1.78

So they picked it up in September 2015,tried to bend someone over a barrel for 3.3 in the mania that was the market during the first half of 2016, and ended up being spit roasted and marinating in their own juices a few years later.

Grandkids will love hearing that story.

After expenses its nudging a 275k kick to the knickerbockers…

M44BC

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/1727-east-22-avenue

#100 yorkville renter on 12.12.18 at 12:23 am

objectively speaking, Trump is a terrible person.

GOP was trounced in midterms, but Trump will win in a landslide? seriously? does anyone look at the basic math of the electoral college?

Is America broken? Yes.
Will Trump fix it? No.

#101 the ryguy on 12.12.18 at 12:43 am

Will Mr. Trump call the next election rigged, claim millions of illegal and dead people voted against him, and refuse to leave office?
————————————————————–

I try to not always be the sarcastic a*hole..mixed results..but you should at least acknowledge that some of this happens too. The whole Dade county was an absolute mess and if you just read a little bit its pretty obvious some tomfoolery was happening. There are also tons of videos online as well as tweets showing that SOME illegals do vote. There was even a hashtag that was trending on election night #IvotedNOWWHAT. We can skip the argument on how many, but to say none of this exists is (greater)foolish.

#102 Andrewt on 12.12.18 at 12:52 am

#77 not 1st on 12.11.18 at 10:22 pm
Migration is NOT a right. Citizenship is a privilege and countries have sovereignty over their borders and who gets in, not the corrupt UN.

How does paying off a hooker who threatened extortion a felony. Its not. Its all grandstanding. If the kavanauh hearings are any indication the dems should go for it.

Dems have lost 1000 seats of power recently so their little 40 seat fit is a minor blip. Trump will have it all in hand firmly in 2020.

—-
That 1000 state and federal seat number that gets thrown around happened over 3 election cycles.
Dems took back 400 in the midterms. Understand this: had this been a presidential election year, Trump would have not just lost the popular vote by almost 9% but the electoral college as well- as Michigan, Wisconsin & Pennsylvania went blue. On top of that, while Trump’s die-hards are remarkably consistent he’s lost support and is not gaining any at all. Time will tell, but it looks like Trump’s peaked.

#103 Brian Ripley on 12.12.18 at 1:02 am

#69 900k
Now the question is, how low can it go? I have a (theoretical) estimate…
If the average $400K SFH in the year 2000, would have underwent the normal inflation rate (per B.o.C.)… …then it would be worth $559K in 2018. Crazy!

Nice extrapolation… When I put the Plunge-O-Meter together many years ago, I used the Spring of 2005 as my base year:

http://www.chpc.biz/plunge-o-meter.html

Average Vancouevr SFD March 2009 = $503,141

At the present rate of deflation at November 2018, there is a price drop of 66% yet to come.

#104 acdel on 12.12.18 at 1:15 am

#75 Another Albertan

It is a very strange market. Just down the street from me a condo complex was completed last year (inner city Calgary, sorry no link due to my laziness). Each unit (according to the sign posted out front) is listed between 5 to 600k; not one has sold. Sitting empty, and yet there are multiple small condo complexes throughout the neighborhood being built as we speak.

Foolhardy??? I am too stupid to try to understand what the heck is going on. Optimistic, greed or obligated to build these things under a previous agreement???

#105 Jim Hurst on 12.12.18 at 1:21 am

I prefer a leader who sees his or her country as a
nation not an idea like PM Trudeau.
PM Trudeau is far more dangerous to our sovereignty with
signing it away without any vote in Parliament or explanations in anyway to Canadians before signing his UN agenda.
Bernier should get more votes…stay tuned!!

#106 Dom on 12.12.18 at 1:26 am

Did you post such bitter character smears of Obama? Being a lying wsr monger? Blowing the national debt into the stratosphere? Do you even have a shred of empathy for the middle Americans who saw their jobs and livelihoods fade away to cheaper Chinese options?

You’re actually a real jerk.

#107 Lee on 12.12.18 at 1:37 am

Hi Garth,
Though I may not necessarily agree with your politics, I find your blogs informative, interesting and witty. A favour, though? I know this is a somewhat male-dominated blog, but it would be great to keep terminology around women respectful. Slut-shaming is very passé, no?

You think Stormy is not sleazy? – Garth

#108 Figure it Out on 12.12.18 at 1:42 am

I have to laugh whenever I read this meme that China is playing the long game.

Two hundred years ago, China probably had the biggest economy in the world. Was it playing the long game when it refused to make any concessions to what was then the greatest naval power the world had ever seen? When it later refused to modernise or arm itself, and was colonised by Japan? When it told its people to stand in the fields and bag on pots until the sparrows fell from the sky dead from exhaustion, subsequently learning that sparrows had been eating the insects which now multiplied and feasted on their crops, causing widespread famine? When it rounded up all its educated people, executing many and sending the rest to rural farms to work as peasants? When it destroyed vast troves of its books and cultural relics? When it turned the “one country, two systems” promise upon regaining Hong Kong into “one country, much bullshit,” thus showing Taiwan that remaining independent is imperative? When it extended some loans to a few Asian and African countries under its Belt/Road initiative only to claim possession of infrastructure (ports, e.g.) when the borrowers got into financial difficulties, scaring off many other countries who otherwise could have been lured into the trap? When it kept its One Child policy in place so long that its working age population is already shrinking rapidly, a significant economic headwind to a still-developing nation? When Xi-who-must-be-obeyed refused to appoint a successor and effectively named himself emperor for life, jailing political enemies on corruption charges, thus making the state/party apparatus an unstable viper’s nest of personal power and succession? When he blew the biggest credit and real estate bubble the world has ever seen? When he got his country into a trade war with the US before it was big enough to dominate?

I’m not seeing long-game genius here, folks.

#109 Buy? Curious? on 12.12.18 at 1:43 am

Baby Boomers are OBESSED with Donald Trump! He political Viagra!

#110 acdel on 12.12.18 at 1:47 am

Very interesting! Posting two links of the same news items from different news outlets to not be biased on one. Yes, this could affect your portfolio.

https://nationalpost.com/news/first-nations-coalition-calls-for-rejection-of-trudeau-tanker-ban-plans-to-file-un-complaint-against-ottawa#comments-area

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/tasker-pro-pipeline-first-nations-c-48-1.4941165

#111 old gringo on 12.12.18 at 2:21 am

So it’s hard to tell exactly when the moment was that it all went to dog poo.

That’s easy JUNE14,1946.

#112 Randy Randerson on 12.12.18 at 2:29 am

Trump will win, 4 more years.

Of course migrants have no rights, they’re illegals and are not citizens of US, so why should US treat them the same as US citizens who pay tax. Just watch Canada and Trudeau virtue signal.

#113 Changeemall on 12.12.18 at 2:32 am

The US economy has been built on free trade… Lol give me a break Garth… The east has benefited from completely free exports to the west but far from the other way around. Today’s post is gag inducing, pretty much all your ‘opinions’ on global politics. Too much CNN and CBC.

How about a word on the UN migration pact that 98 percent of Canadians know nothing of. How about the government giving media 700 million bribe?

#114 Randy Randerson on 12.12.18 at 3:19 am

#77 not 1st on 12.11.18 at 10:22 pm

Agree. Just like I have my own private property to protect, so does country and its sovereignty. Illegal migrants are just that, illegals, they don’t get to enjoy a country’s rights.

#115 majik on 12.12.18 at 3:35 am

A presidential impeachment needs evidence that is clear as day and we’re very far off from that now. The likely scenario is that he will be criminally indicated after his term ends.

The terms of Mueller’s investigation are too broad, almost too vague. Collusion, a term that even Comey could not define in his recent testimony, is malleable, amorphous.

Originally thought of as a great catchall and flexible term, collusion could come back to bite the investigators in the ass. It’s loose meaning becomes unreliable in a court of law unlike clearly defined legal terms like aiding & abetting and conspiracy. That was at core of the House Oversight committees questioning of Comey a few days ago. For either side this will all be won or lost based on the meaning of words.

#116 J Hurst on 12.12.18 at 3:53 am

Trudeau is the UN prime minister!

#117 The Real Mark on 12.12.18 at 4:11 am

Another decent Ross Kay interview:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OqcC8AsGoog

Discusses some weirdness in the sales numbers as reported by the RE boards in 2014 and 2015 that I found rather interesting.

#118 Howard on 12.12.18 at 4:14 am

If the Democrats run another globalist shill proposing more open borders, Trump will handily win re-election.

If the Dems would come around on just this one issue and join Trump in favouring the wall in order to put an end to the illegal influx thereby protecting the wages of working class Americans, they can win and win big. But they won’t….so they won’t.

Nobody proposes open borders. Stop insulting us. – Garth

#119 Howard on 12.12.18 at 4:19 am

#16 Dolce Vita on 12.11.18 at 6:43 pm

Oh ya, POPULIST Italy…we’re happy with our Gov…everyone else in the EU is pissed with theirs and wants to secede. That must just grate your pure as the driven snow butt Garth..and wonder why????

——————————————-

Salvini is the man. My favourite politician on the planet right now.

Maybe second favourite after Viktor Orban.

Here in France, I assumed Macron would go the way of Sarkozy and Hollande and be a one-term failed president, but he’s outdoing both those gentlemen by a wide margin. He did achieve ONE good thing : he’s opened up the train network to competition, very badly needed. It’s entirely overshadowed by his globalist shilling though.

#120 mogulrider on 12.12.18 at 4:46 am

I live in the US.
Stop watching Clinton News Network, CBC, etc. That distortion field is clouding your vision

Trump will win in a landslide next time.
If all you watch is confirmation bias news you would think Americans hate him.

Yup he’s a goof, but he’s the deplorables goof.
Lets be clear – the only people who hate Trump are swamp dwellers.

The average American loves him… Talk to them, don;t believe me or CNN – talk to them..

From all walks of life not just knuckle draggers, they love him.

Yesterday was even more powerful as he nuked the Dems in the white house.

So you can say that he will get nuked next election.
I’m afraid you will teary-eyed like most Democrats were on election night.

I will argue that the American people are tired of the Dems drama and in fact they will lose the House and more seats in the Senate in the net elections.

#121 Howard on 12.12.18 at 5:05 am

#74 AK on 12.11.18 at 10:03 pm

#43 AGuyInVancouver on 12.11.18 at 7:53 pm

“All the delusionals saying “6 more years” forget one thing: Trump hates to lose. When the polling numbers show him going down to certain defeat he will find a way to not run.”
====================================
You mean the polling numbers that called for Hillary Clinton winning in a landslide on November 08, 2016 ??

Remember, polls are fake…

———————————————-

Really? This idiocy again?

Let’s explain yet again. Read slowly.

The final polls showed Hillary several percentage points ahead of Trump. That turned out to be accurate. She won the popular vote by 3 million votes.

She was almost assuredly headed to victory before the last-minute reopening of the email investigation by James Comey. This produced a small but significant shift in the last few days of the campaign that was almost imperceptible to the poll trackers. In the end Trump managed an electoral college win by 80,000 votes spread across three states.

Btw I don’t think any of the later polls were predicting a landslide for Clinton. They predicted she’d win obviously (NY Times famously being 99% certain), but that’s not the same thing as predicting she’d win by a landslide.

#122 earthboundmisfit on 12.12.18 at 6:12 am

Show tRump the middle finger and put her on the next flight to Beijing. The idea of a U.S. president using an extradition treaty with an ally as a political ploy in a trade war, I find appalling. BTW … Rex Tillerson called it first with …. “he’s a f****** moron”.

#123 Howard on 12.12.18 at 6:32 am

#83 Robert B on 12.11.18 at 10:41 pm

Garth
Don’t waste your time on Trump.
Worry about Canada’s and Ontario’s
deficits that have no end in sight.
We soon will be seeing a recession with
no ammo in the chamber.

I always liked Harper.
A proper PM and the love for hockey.

———————————————-

Even Harper was too globalist for my liking. Did not appreciate him flooding the country with TFWs to suppress Canadian wages.

However in comparison to Trudeau, it would be like comparing minor indigestion to severe food poisoning.

#124 Steven Rowlandson on 12.12.18 at 6:33 am

“In Europe Macron is French toast after having done the wrong thing.”

France RIOTS!!! Globalist Democracy Is CRUMBLING
https://youtu.be/gMFdjqsY1e8

More likely it could be the start of men getting off their knees worldwide and taking their countries and governments back. Watch and learn.

Oh, please. Put it back in your pants. – Garth

#125 MF on 12.12.18 at 6:59 am

#71 DON on 12.11.18 at 9:49 pm

“A second term is plausible. Voters seems to vote for two terms. Trump’s behaviour was well known when he ran for President.”

-Exactly. All of this was known beforehand by his voters and its precisely why they voted for him. It was a combination of anti establishment, fear of China, fear of free trade and further job losses, being pro business, rejecting the core of Obama’s policies and so on.

All of those factors are are still in play.

“I am not hoping, just saying. Unless the Democrats get The Rock, Oprah or Harrison Ford to run.

I am waiting for Trumps tweets to Macron and May saying ‘Your Fired! I told you so’. Trump may be a shinning star at the moment.”

Haha. I wish the Rock would run, that would be hilarious. He doesn’t seem to have the ego necessary to be a politician though.

Trump has been waiting to tell Macron and Merkel ‘Your Fired’ since day one!

MF

#126 MF on 12.12.18 at 7:11 am

#123 Howard on 12.12.18 at 6:32 am

Harper was as good as it gets.

TFW’s often have a path to permanent residency if they complete the requirements.

I’ve seen many of them become permanent residents, and eventually citizens. They go to school, get better jobs, buy homes and start families.

As always, nothing is black and white.

MF

#127 The real Kip on 12.12.18 at 7:13 am

I watched Nancy Pilosi go at it with Donald Trump yesterday over the government shutdown. The Dems are going to smash Donald and he’s stepping right up for it.

Maybe it wasn’t such a good idea to put a guy that started out with a few million from his daddy only to declare bankruptcy five times in The White House. Just sayin.

#128 Frank The Tank on 12.12.18 at 7:23 am

Garth, forgive my possible stupid question here:

If most successful investors ignore the noise, how come markets shift so dramatically when “bad news” hits? Is it all amateurs dumping their stocks in fear? I’m just trying to understand how it works.

And for everyone else, the immigration system has its flaws, but enough with the hatred of the other. Most people just want to work, support their families, support their communities and live in peace. No matter where they come from.

#129 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.12.18 at 7:33 am

@#88 Marcus
While I agree that a war before the next US election would goose Trumps ratings and it will probably start in the South China Sea….
The day of Aircraft carrier supriority is over.
One missle is all it would take to send a $900 Billion dollar ship to the bottom.
Hence the building of artificial islands and the grooming of potential allies like Duterte with billions in Chinese “aid” money.

The first week of any modern war will be devastating and Im sure the markets will reflect that.

#130 dharma bum on 12.12.18 at 7:42 am

“The modern US economy has been built on free trade.” – Garth
——————————————————————–

The old US economy was built on slavery.

The modern US economy is built on slavery – AKA:

Globalism
Free Trade
Illegal Immigrant Workers
Minimum Wage

Unless things can be manufactured for free or with ridiculously low labor costs, profits cannot be made.

It’s how the U.S. was built. Money for nothin’ and your labor for free.

Don’t kid yourselves.

Meet the new economy. Same as the old economy.

https://www.thesunmagazine.org/issues/310/the-new-slavery

https://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/economy-budget/335282-we-ended-slavery-so-why-exploit-people-with-a-725-minimum

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/03/american-immigration-service-slavery/555824/

https://www.theguardian.com/society/1999/may/12/guardiansocietysupplement1

https://www.antislavery.org/slavery-today/modern-slavery/

#131 jess on 12.12.18 at 7:48 am

limited-liability companies – described by the Economist in 1999 as “the key to industrial capitalism”

http://www.cityam.com/270132/why-river-dirty-money-flows-through-united-kingdom
================

http://www.cityam.com/270380/government-cracks-down-limited-partnerships-fight-uk-money

#132 Bezengy on 12.12.18 at 8:10 am

I remember a interview Harper gave a at local rink where his son was playing hockey. To be kind, I didn’t see any possibility of his son being of the 1st line if you know what I mean. Harper was the proudest father on the planet, stating “now that kid has real talent” when he was asked about his son. How can anyone not love this guy? Best PM ever except for Mulroney.

btw…Harper left office with a balanced budget, a fact the lefties refuse to accept. Hilarious!

#133 jess on 12.12.18 at 8:15 am

14 When Will They Raise Rates? on 12.11.18 at 6:40 pm
Are you what you read?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerome_Corsi
==========
The FTC’s complaint alleges that to further this scheme, the defendants used dozens of shell companies and straw owners—sometimes referred to as nominees or signors—to obtain the merchant accounts needed to accept consumers’ credit and debit card payments. Processing charges through other companies’ merchant accounts is known as “credit card laundering,” which is an illegal practice that some unscrupulous merchants use to bypass credit card associations’ monitoring practices and avoid detection by law enforcement.

The defendants formed at least 32 limited liability companies in Wyoming between August 2013 and May 2016. These companies allegedly had no employees, did not conduct business, and were formed solely to obtain merchant accounts used to accept consumers’ credit and debit card payments. To secure these merchant accounts, the defendants used California residents as signors on merchant account applications submitted to banks and other financial institutions.”

https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/press-releases/2018/11/court-temporarily-halts-international-operation-allegedly

#134 not 1st on 12.12.18 at 8:17 am

The Chinese military is mostly like Chinese products. Low quality fakes which wear out in a few days. There is a reason they don’t make cars or industrial equipment. Just throwaway consumer goods. Their only aircraft carrier was a former casino.

Their economy is a house of cards. Not worried about those guys at all. Trump can take them out without even firing a shot and he will unless they get in line.

#135 jess on 12.12.18 at 8:21 am

where is china’s outrage with lower profile women?

Cope said the detained women have similar harrowing experiences: they were in debt in China and tricked into thinking they would be given well-paid jobs; traffickers brought them to the UK through a very arduous journey; and they were then sold into a brothel and forced to have sex, often unprotected…”

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/dec/12/chinese-women-trafficked-uk-failed-home-office-medical

#136 TurnerNation on 12.12.18 at 8:23 am

Few months ago I posted that those “temporary” homeless shelters in Toronto most certainly are not.
And to check your privilege/home areas before buying.

The Left claims addiction is not a choice. OK so they therefore cannot choose NOT to. Van has best idea, herd them all into East Hastings.

Now this news from the city and some peoples’ opinion on the rich vibrancy and enrichment they experienced.

https://old.reddit.com/r/toronto/comments/a57fye/city_staff_consider_loosening_rules_for_shelter/

….

Say climate changers, before you tax us tell us , why one no longer can walk from Russia to Alaska. What happened to that ice floe? What a hoot.
Deindustrialization and communism wrapped up into one. AB O&G is done. Might as well join the big welfare state.

#137 Broadway Limited on 12.12.18 at 8:41 am

Three things:

1) You were saying since the election that Trump is a bum. Now you’re saying he wasn’t a bum, but starting now, he IS a bum. You were wrong before – and you admitted that – so what makes you correct now?

2) If Mueller had anything on Trump, it would have been out by now. Washington is leak city, and there are plenty of Hillary supporters still in high places who would have been only too happy to nail Trump. Hasn’t happened.

3) So he had sex with a couple of hookers – so what? At least it was consensual, which is more than Bill Clinton can say.

My opinion of Trump is based on his actions and the impact he has on others, including investors. Obviously I never called him a bum. nor would that be consequential. Take your blinders off. – Garth

#138 NoName on 12.12.18 at 8:57 am

#88 Marcus on 12.11.18 at 11:05 pm
The utter lack of political knowledge on this pathetic blog is stunning. Trump may or may not run in 2020 but with the arrest of the Huawei ceo and other pressing factors in the South China Sea the election will be on a wartime footing. Or at least prepping for war with China footing. The American air-force is now producing mock J-20 Chinese stealth aircraft to train their pilots. Air to air combat over the South China Sea. Think it’s impossible? Guess again. Phantom works and skunk works scuttlebutt is heavily leaning towards war with China within 5 years. The amount of $$$$ pouring into programs is stunning. China had better get ready for another Century of humiliation if they keep on their present trajectory.

There is no air to air combat that probably died in Vietnam, and shoulder launched Stingers closed that chapter for good. Its all about vertival take off and semy autonomous paylod delivery. Everything else is just for the show.

#139 Andrewt on 12.12.18 at 9:06 am

#112 Randy Randerson on 12.12.18 at 2:29 am
Trump will win, 4 more years.

Of course migrants have no rights, they’re illegals and are not citizens of US, so why should US treat them the same as US citizens who pay tax. Just watch Canada and Trudeau virtue signal.
—-

FFS- all human beings have rights. That’s an unassailable core foundation this country was built on. Being a migrant is not illegal. It’s only illegal to enter the country surreptitiously. Anyone can show up and ask for asylum and submit to due process. The mere act of trying to come here for a better life is not illegal.

#140 James on 12.12.18 at 9:10 am

DELETED

#141 James on 12.12.18 at 9:15 am

#137 Broadway Limited on 12.12.18 at 8:41 am

Three things:

1) You were saying since the election that Trump is a bum. Now you’re saying he wasn’t a bum, but starting now, he IS a bum. You were wrong before – and you admitted that – so what makes you correct now?

2) If Mueller had anything on Trump, it would have been out by now. Washington is leak city, and there are plenty of Hillary supporters still in high places who would have been only too happy to nail Trump. Hasn’t happened.

3) So he had sex with a couple of hookers – so what? At least it was consensual, which is more than Bill Clinton can say.

My opinion of Trump is based on his actions and the impact he has on others, including investors. Obviously I never called him a bum. nor would that be consequential. Take your blinders off. – Garth
__________________________________________
OK Garth, I will do it for you, Donald J Trump is a BUM!

#142 James on 12.12.18 at 9:20 am

#81 Smoking Man on 12.11.18 at 10:35 pm

T2 sugar and spice and everything nice

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-11/canadian-personal-bankruptcies-are-surging-br
___________________________________________
Yes if my memory serves me correctly you (Smoking Man) started the trend in around July of 2017 when you lost the home!

#143 For those about to flop... on 12.12.18 at 10:08 am

Hey Crowdie, you’ve got some competition.

These guys have got wind as well…

M44BC

“This Chart Shows Which States Produce the Most Wind Energy.

There are lots of problems with wind power.

Wind turbines are ugly and loud. They kill lots of birds. They only produce electricity if the wind is blowing, obviously. Plus, they’re expensive, relying on lots of government subsidies to get up and running. Combined with the fact that green energy is associated with left wing politics, it’s surprising to find out that states like deep red Texas and Oklahoma lead the country in wind power capacity.

We gathered our data from the American Wind Energy Association, a national trade association advocating for public policies friendly to the wind power industry. We used turbines in place of a bar chart to indicate how much electrical capacity each state generates. We then color-coded each turbine to highlight the number of homes the industry can power, combined with the total investment each state has made in the industry as of 2018. This approach gives you a quick snapshot of wind energy investments around the country.

Wind is a tricky thing to harness for electrical power, but there appears to be a correlation between the amount invested and total power returned. For instance, Indiana forked over some $4.5B to the wind industry and created in 2,117 MW of power. Texas put forward $42B and received 23,262 MW for the money, or about 10 times as much as Indiana. That being said, there are clearly some start-up costs associated with wind turbines. Unless a state is willing to spend or subsidize at least several billions of dollars, it won’t ever see substantial levels of power generation. Delaware, Connecticut and New Jersey have a long way to go.

At first glance, it also appears that the sheer amount of electrical capacity is directly related to the number of homes able to subsist on that power. After all, it makes intuitive sense that states generating the most power can supply more homes. But look at North Dakota, which only has 2,996 MW of installed capacity supplying some 1M+ homes. How can that be?

Part of the answer is that there is another dynamic hiding beneath the surface of our visualization. It’s critical to bear in mind differences between rural and urban states when looking at a chart like this. For example, Iowa and Kansas both have comparable wind capacity to California, but California is the most populous state in the country by far, with just under 40 millionpeople. Iowa (30th most populated) and Kansas (35th) are several orders of magnitude smaller, not to mention Oklahoma (28th), which by this measure is truly the nation’s leader in green energy. If California invested in wind energy at the same rate as Kansas, it’d have some 10 times more electrical capacity.”

12 December 2018

Visualization

https://howmuch.net/articles/wind-power-in-the-united-states-2018

#144 IHCTD9 on 12.12.18 at 10:24 am

#129 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.12.18 at 7:33 am

The day of Aircraft carrier supriority is over.
One missle is all it would take to send a $900 Billion dollar ship to the bottom.
_________

The AC is actually more important than ever. The US sails in a strategic formation called a “Carrier Strike Group’. These formations contain more air and sea power than most countries do. Groups like these are are the only real projections of power any nation can make outside of threatening to launch an ICBM fitted with a nuclear warhead – making said threat is for the insane.

Consider that sinking something like a US carrier would be considered Pear Harbor #2. It would be straight up asking the USA to turn your civilization back into a hunter/gather society – and they would – from afar, without nukes, and with few, if any casualties.

If you read up on what kind of support and defense systems a modern US carrier group has, you will see pretty quick that they are near untouchable (for a variety of reasons). You’ll also see they not only have the power to take out other ships and fleets – but entire COUNTRIES.

Google the Phalanx CIWS. This is actually really old school anti-missile defense, but it is still certain death for any cruise or anti ship missile that manages to launch, and breaks through the outer defenses. These things are common on naval ships the world over. Laser guided autonomous 20 mm cannon firing 4500 rounds per minute (75 per second) through 6 barrels at 3600 fps.

They fire lead (tungsten actually) so fast, you can not distinguish one round from the next. When it starts firing, it sounds like a buzzer.

These are 80’s technology – you can rest assured that there is much MUCH more where that came from since then.

Those islands China is building are a waste of time. They’re just going to end up as US bases if anything ever happened. China is in no position to defend far flung Oceanic positions with 1 crap carrier. Maybe someday they’ll be able to do something, but now ain’t the time.

The only reason China is not cranking out Carriers is that they don’t know how to yet. The one they have is a mildly updated re-eng. of an old soviet carrier that they copied. The main problem is that China can’t just steal other country’s technology and reverse engineer it when it comes to building a cutting edge Aircraft Carrier.

#145 The Trump Deal on 12.12.18 at 10:27 am

The deal on the table is if a good trade deal with China can be made in favour of USA, he will intervene for a Chinese executive who has been arrested, and all will turn out fine. Sounds like extortion to me. Trump is waiting for the Chinese ruler to call him for further discussions.

#146 "rosie" on 12.12.18 at 10:33 am

The more things change, the more they stay the same.

http://www.mohammadmossadegh.com/news/troy-times-record/rude-uncouth-ignorant/

#147 Tater on 12.12.18 at 10:39 am

#113 Changeemall on 12.12.18 at 2:32 am
The east has benefited from completely free exports to the west but far from the other way around.
—————————————————————-

You don’t think consumers have benefited massively from goods produced in low wage countries?

I mean, you can believe that, you’d be wrong, but have at it.

#148 Kilt on 12.12.18 at 10:41 am

#29 reynolds531

You are not buying CPD for a huge capital gain. You are buying for the dividends. Buy it and forget about it, or accumulate over time to keep things balanced.
Having said that, as much as I like etf’s and buying an index, I do think there are better individual plays, but you are accepting credit risk. Regardless, you are still a prisoner to interest rates. And a prisoner to how the fund is balanced. Check out the top 10 holdings of CPD from quarter to quarter and you’ll see it changes significantly. Personally, I prefer to stick to stock index funds and toss on some bonds or split preferreds to balance things out.

Kilt.

#149 Marcus on 12.12.18 at 10:54 am

@crowdedelevatorfartz The first 2 weeks of a real Naval War in the South China Sea would leave NOTHING above the water line. With the creation/invention of the new Stingray the American carriers can stay another 250 miles out of the combat zone and just have their planes mid-air refuel via the MQ-25 drone system. China due to their 1 child policy has hundreds of millions of 20 something young men with zero chance of finding a mate and continuing their family line. How does a govt get rid of such a large amount of young men that could cause disruption to govt control? You start a war. The propaganda in China over the South China Sea is out of control. Recently a Chinese Admiral declared that the island of Palawan (Philippines) was “historic Chinese territory.” Code for we will take it soon. China is in the “expand or die” phase of their most recent empire and this absolute need for resources will put them at loggerheads with the west. Australia is arming up big time. As I stated earlier the tech development end of this eventuality is being given funds like you could never imagine. Exotic weapons systems that can obliterate those artificial islands in one hit are already in place. If a person doubts this then just ask oneself …… Just what is the X-37B doing up in space for months at a time anyway? China is making a fatal error. Duterte is trying to play both sides but his armed forces is decidedly “Pro-American. Their Air Force is about to aquire a couple of squadrons of Saab Gripen MRF fighters and they are also buying anti submarine helicopters. Lockheed Martin just sealed the deal with the Philippines for 16 Apache gunships (helicopters) and Turkey did the same by selling the RP some Fast attack helicopters. Also the RP will soon receive new Frigates and by 2023 will have three new submarines. My sources say it will be SOKO subs (south Korean) but I hope for the Saab A-26 platform. These acquisitions may not sound like much but they are necessary for the Philippines to have a “minimal credible defense” so that when they are attacked the Mutual defense treaty with the USA could be enacted. Like I said before …… China is running headlong towards another Century of humiliation.

#150 IHCTD9 on 12.12.18 at 10:59 am

#134 not 1st on 12.12.18 at 8:17 am
The Chinese military is mostly like Chinese products. Low quality fakes which wear out in a few days. There is a reason they don’t make cars or industrial equipment. Just throwaway consumer goods. Their only aircraft carrier was a former casino.
____

This is China’s big problem. No matter what you care to look at that is produced in China, you will see elements of foreign manufacturers in the design. This can range from subtle bits to out-right rip off.

China was too rushed to get their economy going to learn to innovate themselves. They stole everyone else’s ideas and technology and just produced a cheap rip-off of same.

Some day, the costs of R+D, design efforts, market research, advertising testing, etc… will have to go into their prices as there will be nothing left worth stealing and reverse engineering anymore. They’ll have to come up with their own ideas.

At that point, China better hope they can come up with something people want to buy – and that they can still make it dirt cheap. No one will pay the same for a Chinese product as they would for an American, Scandinavian, European, Japanese etc… one. They’ve built garbage for way too long.

The fact is, I won’t live to see China become highly regarded for quality, innovation, etc.. like the Swedes and Germans etc… are today. If the day ever comes that they have reproduced everything that is worth reproducing, they’ll have to be content with that customer base (those that buy cheap junk) – or they’ll have to start over trying to re-design themselves into a country that innovates and produces quality (like Japan did).

#151 Brett in Calgary on 12.12.18 at 10:59 am

My BIL has been a site foreman/super for 4 housing companies over the past handful of years. So far when laid off he has managed to find another post, but the options are dwindling. He now finds himself working for a small mom/pop shop that builds 10-20 infills a year in the core. Probably a wise move IMO as the top 1% will still build… everyone else will not. Good bye to the good days for Jayman, Excel, Morrison, etc.

#152 not 1st on 12.12.18 at 11:01 am

If people want pure leaders then they cant vote for Justin or the pope or Bono if they want.

I will vote for the SOB who is fighting the global swamp.

#153 Figure it Out on 12.12.18 at 11:10 am

“The modern US economy has been built on free trade.”

Check your facts. The US is the LEAST reliant on trade of the major economies. Observe:

Exports:
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS?locations=CA-CN-JP-DE-GB-US

Imports:
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.IMP.GNFS.ZS?locations=CA-CN-DE-GB-US

American multinationals are the backbone of the modern economy. Their reach is global. This is due to a free trading environment. – Garth

#154 Hypersonic Weapons on 12.12.18 at 11:13 am

China, like Russia has the fastest anti-ship ballistic missiles in the world – Mach 10. There is no defence against the DF-21D and the latest DF-26. Always remember what happened to the Donald Cook destroyer two years ago with the so-called latest defense systems. The Russians shut everything down, and just sat in the water for the Russian jets to practice their bombing raids endlessly. Furthermore, there is no defence against the Russian Satan 2 that can destroy all USA in minutes.

#155 Hawk on 12.12.18 at 11:29 am

45 did very well and delivered a lot more than many in his base or even the broader population expected. But he is making a fatal mistake in ignoring the centrepiece of his campaign which is ultimately what gave him the presidency.

He should have Finished the wall while he had both houses. He can still do it even though it’s a lot harder now. If he doesn’t get it done and this is increasingly looking to be the case, the base will not turn out for him in full force in 2020. And without the full force of the base and many independents he has no chance.

Indeed this is the reason why he lost the house in the midterms.

Tax cuts, trade deals, the DPRK peace its all nice but the wall is what the people want. Without that the Trump train grinds to a halt.

The wall is a symbol of political failure.mWhat a massive waste of money that could be spent in the advance of society. I pity those who support this archaic measure. – Garth

#156 Frank Strongback on 12.12.18 at 11:30 am

China as a climate champion in Paris was nothing more than a PR charade.

https://business.financialpost.com/opinion/china-was-the-climate-champion-of-paris-now-its-doing-a-complete-u-turn

Trudeau is the only dupe standing and Canada stands in the crosshairs of this idiots misadventure. When does Canada stand up to this abuse and liars folly?

Most rational people know that climate hysteria was always about wealth distribution never about climate. Get rid of the notion or beggar your country.

Tell it to the scientists. Are you one? – Garth

#157 Remembrancer on 12.12.18 at 11:49 am

#88 HAM R Us on 12.11.18 at 9:22 am
#105 China Has A Book on 12.11.18 at 1:01 pm
#115 Quality Weapons on 12.11.18 at 4:06 pm
#120 The Duck on 12.11.18 at 7:45 pm
#134 not 1st on 12.12.18 at 8:17 am
et al…

Since you’ve been so politely earnest and note that I am not speaking for our esteemed host but you seem to have wandered off the beaten path to our little corner of the internet. I humbly submit that trolling on pan-Asian geopolitical military topics and the relative merits of 1980s Warsaw Pact fighters with magical ship killer rays here will simply waste your employers’ time as the knowledge and opinions here on those topics are even subjectively lower than finance and real estate – if its to demoralize YVR and YYZ potential home buyers/sellers, taunt mils or bait boomers or try to get free investment advice from paid professionals along with the rest of us here in steerage then the fiddles are warmed up and you’re all welcome to the party – just mind the locked gates in the passage ways to avoid us hoi polloi from mingling with the upper decks and have an outstanding day! Spa-see-ba / xie xie

#158 Smartalox on 12.12.18 at 11:55 am

Here’s how it will end:

– The NRA SuperPAC is revealed to be the recipient of millions of dollars worth of Russian money.
– Donald Trump Jr. (lifetime member, and sometime poster boy of the NRA), is found to have arranged with Russian financiers and NRA executives to use Russian money from the SuperPAC to influence the election.

– it is revealed by the CFO of Trump Inc. (who is already working with the Mueller investigation) that the Trump corporation has been a Laundromat for millions in ill-gotten Russian money, used to finance construction of Trump-branded towers in Toronto, and Vancouver, Manila, and other locations between 2009 and 2014 – a period notable for being the greatest credit-crisis in history.

– Donald Trump Jr. is indicted for:
— lying to congress about the June 19th meeting, with a Russian Agent at Trump Tower, and informing his father;
— about finding a way to accept Russian money to influence the 2016 campaign through the NRA SuperPAC,
— and for attempting to bribe Vladimir Putin personally, with the promise of a $50M penthouse in the Trump Tower Moscow.
– One of two things happen to Donald J Trump Sr. (The President): either he pardons his son, and raises the ire of the American people (he’s already been softening up his base, with all the rhetoric about the investigation being an ‘illegal witch hunt’), and is impeached.

– Or, before he can do so, Donald Trump Sr. suffers a massive stroke, and is reduced to a vegetative state.

– Mike Pence assumes the presidency. The GOP cuts Trump lose, tells Pence not to pardon anyone related to 2016, or he’ll be radioactively unpopular.

– Pence is also effectively corralled by Congress, while the GOP in the senate falls apart with everyone scrambling to run for president in 2020.

#159 KLNR on 12.12.18 at 11:59 am

trumps good for a couple laughs a week.
Hope he wins, just for the entertainment provided.

#160 NoName on 12.12.18 at 12:06 pm

IHCTD9

That six barrels shooting projectiles 3500 ft/sec at 4500 per minute grabbed my attention.

Iam not bosting i can do that to just at bit slower 3 per minute, and after that i have to ice my shoulder…

Someone just have to look at athe map to see that even geography is not working in its favour. Very long sea cost but also very limited, tbey can drive their ships around but going out would be very difficult, especially now when everyone is watching and measuring. Blocade very easy. Rest of tje the stuff, half of country is inhabitable, kind of.
Desesert is spreading faster than tbey can plant shrubs lot bigger problem that they would like to admit. Northern part is writoff nothing there, on a weat side big population that is treated as crap easily most volotile part, that would join anyone in fight. South side occupied territory same deal as a west side. Bit more south countys that have ongoing disputes ober the borders. Probably many more pressing issues than border alone. 50kg of meat per capita, 40 of finsh, just blocking of fishing boats, fishing in world oceans would do a number alone, not mentioning that 67 percent of food import is soybean for live stock.

Looks good for Donny.

Interesting read.
https://chinapower.csis.org/china-food-security/

Phillipines is a wild card in all this.

#161 jess on 12.12.18 at 12:10 pm

eight years later !

This fall, the Reiners learned from media reports they were among the approximately 545 homeowners who lost their homes because of an apparent software glitch with Wells Fargo’s loan modification process.

The Reiner family, whose home was foreclosed on by Wells Fargo after a glitch.
The foreclosure problem is just the latest in a long series of issues confronting Wells Fargo, one of America’s biggest banks.

he latest was last week. A lawsuit was filed against Wells Fargo seeking justice for borrowers like the Reiners who say they were victimized by the bank’s wrongful foreclosures.
‘I had a breakdown’
In September 2018, Wells Fargo sent the Reiners a letter explaining that the bank had “difficult news” to share: The family’s plea for a mortgage modification would have been accepted if not for a “faulty calculation. Wells Fargo said the couple should have been approved for a trial modification — a reduction in monthly payments that would have saved their house from foreclosure.
“I had a breakdown. I could not believe we’d get a letter of that nature so many years later,

#162 jess on 12.12.18 at 12:20 pm

the “glitch” defense but who was the tool who made the tool?

Wells Fargo accepted up to $6.4 billion in HAMP funding
, but failed to fulfill its obligations and dutiesto its customers under HAMP’s loan modification program.
4.Rather than use software developed by Fannie Mae to calculate a borrower’s eligibility for HAMP, Wells Fargo developed its own proprietary tool. Wells Fargo now admits that this tool caused systematic miscalculations that led to Wells Fargo wrongfully denying loan modifications to over 870 borrowers
who qualified for a loan modification under HAMP. Of those, Wells Fargo admits it foreclosed on 545 borrowers when it should have instead offered them a loan modification.

but the bank blames the issue on a series of calculation errors,

https://www.classlawgroup.com/wells-fargo-mortgage-modification-lawsuit/

#163 Barb on 12.12.18 at 12:22 pm

#123 Howard on 12.12.18 at 6:32 am

“…Even Harper was too globalist for my liking. Did not appreciate him flooding the country with TFWs to suppress Canadian wages.”
———————————-
Flooding the country?
Suppress Canadian wages?

They’re certainly NOT replacing locals in farm jobs.

We were orchardists 20+ years ago.
We couldn’t get “local Canadians” to do farm work, no matter what the wage was.

Especially the young folk…spoiled, entitled lot that they were. Then and now.

#164 Spock on 12.12.18 at 12:45 pm

DELETED

#165 the ryguy on 12.12.18 at 12:45 pm

#158 Smartalox on 12.12.18 at 11:55 am
———————————————–

Indeed that will be the downfall of Trump. Too bad he wasn’t smart enough to do it with a foundation. That way he could have sold US assets..like hypothetically uranium..and then take “donations” from 3rd parties who get the money from the benefiting parties.

And you wanna talk about an easy way to hide foreign money to influence an election? A foundation would have worked perfectly. Thanks Iran for the $30 Million..we will be sure to use this on Haiti..wink wink.

Yawn..you lefties, wake me up when you have a single shred of evidence..its been over 2 years and the best you have is Russia buying facebook ads.

#166 Lee on 12.12.18 at 12:52 pm

Mr. Trudeau will win in 2019. He has tied up Quebec. Recent polls show him with as many as 65 seats there. While he has lost a small number of seats in the Maritimes, his 2019 numbers out West and on the Prairies will be about the same as 2015. He is sure to get 55-60 seats in Ontario and win a small majority. Bernier’s party is having almost no effect on Tory numbers.

#167 jess on 12.12.18 at 12:55 pm

Is “going global ” no longer the phrase?

….the global tribunals that multinationals use to bypass national courts have come under attack….

https://www.economist.com/briefing/2017/01/28/the-retreat-of-the-global-company

#168 TurnerNation on 12.12.18 at 1:03 pm

#139 Andrewt as everyone coincidentally is migrating at once into NA and EU, with our colder weather they will increase “carbon output” with heating. You lefts can’t have it both ways.

What’s wrong with nice warm places favourable to growing crops. Their failure to thrive there warrants closer consideration.

What’s

#169 Farm Crops on 12.12.18 at 1:09 pm

#163 Barb – There was a time long ago, that parents were proud for the public school kids bringing in the farm field crops. It was a learning lesson more than the money, and one’s first job at working for a living.

#170 EB on 12.12.18 at 1:13 pm

It’s easy to dismiss the opposition as populism if you don’t like it, but I’m still not convinced that’s the appropriate moniker. The question at hand is, does the citizenry have the right (and the ability) under a globalist ruling class, to push back against policies which enforce profits ahead of sovereignty? Maybe not. But the forces at hand are deep and ancient, and waggling the corpses of AH and BM around yet again as totems against the zeitgeist is producing diminishing returns. The reaction is here, and it will be a mistake to minimize how strongly a non-trivial minority feel on the topic.

#171 Y. Knott on 12.12.18 at 1:14 pm

#129 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.12.18 at 7:33 am
@#88 Marcus
The day of Aircraft carrier supriority is over.
One missle is all it would take to send a $900 Billion dollar ship to the bottom.

Sure – if it’s a nuclear missile – and then we’re right into Mutual Assured Destruction; a conventional missile, no way. The Chinese have been placarding their ICBM-style anti-carrier missiles for over a decade now; my concern would be “okay, they’ve launched ICBM’s at American carriers – how would the BMEWS sites distinguish between anti-carrier ICBM’s and a nuclear first strike, and why wouldn’t the U.S. assume the worst and retaliate with a full launch?” China would be insane to use them. For anything else, there’s Phalanx.

And if the ‘one missile’ is being launched from a Chinese ship or sub, wish it luck. The Chinese have a couple antiquated nuclear subs; the U.S. has dozens of brand-new state-of-the-arts. In an at-sea shooting war, the Chinese navy doesn’t stand a chance. For those ‘islands’ they’ve stolen in the South China Sea, crater the runways with JDAMS and then blockade with subs so they can’t get construction crews in to patch them.

And China has the world’s biggest land army; the U.S. would be insane to imagine a successful invasion – so they’d likely send everything they have to Taiwan, Japan and South Korea to keep the Chinese out. Stalemate – and the U.S. can afford a stalemate, but China would lose its overseas markets the day war broke-out; they’d have a hundred million unemployed malcontents rioting within weeks. They’d HAVE to launch an all-out effort for Taiwan and the U.S. would HAVE to stop them. And China’s leaders COULD NOT lose face among their people by losing that battle; if it turned against them, they’d have to nuke the place.

Which ultimately, brings-up the question I’ve never gotten a successful answer to – what happens when a major nuclear power starts losing a war bigly, and decides it has nothing left to lose?

#172 IHCTD9 on 12.12.18 at 1:16 pm

#160 NoName on 12.12.18 at 12:06 pm
_____

I agree, China has problems coming out its wazoo. It is eventually going to face a tapering off of its GDP growth to Western levels – inevitable and natural. How are the Chinese folks going to deal with recessions and job losses? More importantly, how is their dictatorship going to handle it?

What about all these Chinese folks that are heavily invested in real estate that is essentially worthless (all those ghost cities) when they realize their life savings is gone?

Not the least of the potentials is China starting something in their region that obligates the US to step in. Their economy better be able to stand on their own. They had best wait until the USA become less powerful – even if it takes 100 years to happen. If they have to fight the USA anytime soon, they are done like dinner.

#173 yorkville renter on 12.12.18 at 1:22 pm

#155 – Hawk – DPRK peace its all nice but the wall is what the people want.

_____

what DPRK peace? what changed?

the only people who want a wall will support Trump no matter what, so building it is only for Trump’s ego… besides, Mexico is supposed to pay for it so why does Trump need $5 billion? Also, Trump said he’s already building it, so I guess it’s already been taken care of.

You believing a grifter is embarrassing… wake up to reality.

#174 Evangeline on 12.12.18 at 1:41 pm

#155 Hawk on 12.12.18 at 11:29 am
“45 did very well and delivered a lot more than many in his base or even the broader population expected. But he is making a fatal mistake in ignoring the centrepiece of his campaign which is ultimately what gave him the presidency.”

A lot of his base are seriously ticked off about Trump’s pumping Jared’s collaboration with Van Jones and the prison reform bill. One thing that Trump never mentioned in all his campaigning was prison reform. (It’s actually sort of a jobs program.) Trump’s several years of experience in the Democrat Party are going to help him more than hurt him over the next two years.

#175 Headhunter on 12.12.18 at 1:42 pm

Aircraft carriers are obsolete end of story. They used to be good tools of “washington diplomacy”

Direct Energy is where its at. Tech has been around a long time.

Just look to Cali the fires and the DEW weapons.. Cali the only forest fire where the forest doesnt burn

#176 Tater on 12.12.18 at 1:50 pm

#175 Headhunter on 12.12.18 at 1:42 pm
Aircraft carriers are obsolete end of story. They used to be good tools of “washington diplomacy”

Direct Energy is where its at. Tech has been around a long time.

Just look to Cali the fires and the DEW weapons.. Cali the only forest fire where the forest doesnt burn
—————————————————————-
Get help. These sorts of delusions are not healthy.

#177 Marco on 12.12.18 at 1:51 pm

DELETED

#178 Y. Knott on 12.12.18 at 2:00 pm

Most rational people know that climate hysteria was always about wealth distribution never about climate. Get rid of the notion or beggar your country.

Tell it to the scientists. Are you one? – Garth

– No, and they aren’t either, Garth; they’re shills advocating for money, in support of a global order that has stated it wants to abolish capitalism. Calling them ‘scientists’ is an insult to real scientists. I have the following objections to the Great Global Warming Scam ( – and yeah, I know you don’t care ;)

1) the hysteria. “No! The time for talking is past – we have to act NOW, to SAAAAAVE THE EARTH!!!” With all due respect, I’ve seen this movie before – several times in the past twenty years, and every catastrophe deadline that passes, they just redouble their volume and hype toward their new “It’ll REALLY end THIS TIME” date.

Just the facts, ma’am – I’ll draw my own interpretation, because I don’t trust yours.

2) The facts. I remember at the time, ~20 years ago, the icecaps WERE melting – on Mars – and another red-spot storm system was breaking-out on Jupiter. I hadn’t read the Enquirer that day, so I didn’t know how many men were on Mars and Jupiter, causing Global Warming there – but if the total was “none”, then could whatever was causing warming on Mars and Jupiter, be causing it here too?

I actually had an alarmist tell me that the Sun had been pretty-well discounted as a driver of global warming; what then? And the Arctic was losing ice cover at the time; yet during the same period the Antarctic had set new yearly accumulation records, every year since they started measuring it – and still is; the only part of the Antarctic losing ice is that peninsula that’s been found to have a rift fault and 60+ active volcanoes under the ice. The Arctic and Antarctic are on the same planet, are they not?

3) The lies, notably on the part of ‘scientists’. Michael Mann “I’m a Nobel Prize winner” – ahh Sir, the Nobel Committee says ‘no you aren’t either’; but he still says he is. His hockey stick graph, which once the algorithm was finally pried from his bloodied fingers, was shown to give that result no matter what data you fed into it – including the New York telephone book – but it’s still touted with fury, and the UN IPCC put it on the cover of one of their recent Reports.

The other models – that predict dire warming that hasn’t happened – but it WILL, just you wait. The temperature measurements – all of which are rising precipitously, except for the satellite and balloon measurements, you know, the REAL measurements. The Hadley CRU’s unprofessional and occasionally hysterical efforts to smear and discredit other scientists who disagreed with them, and ultimately destroying their raw data “because they moved to a new building, and couldn’t store it”. The “temperature corrections”, the “rationalisations”, the “adjusted averages” – that always adjust only upward. If they’re “average”, shouldn’t half of them adjust downward, instead of none?

Finally, 4) the hypocrisy. Al Gore charged $1,000-each to pose with admirers at Copenhagen, and his house is (said to be) the only private dwelling visible from space with the naked eye; his energy usage surpasses that of many towns, and he tells us we have to cut back? David Suzuki divides his time between his Kitsilano mansion and his estate on Quadra Island, while telling us we have to live like our grandparents? { – which I wouldn’t mind, personally; Nanny & Grandpa’s house was SWANK! – } And while telling us we have to cut back, David Suzuki has five kids – but that’s okay, they’re being raised by David Suzuki.

Both of these clowns are VILE, and whatever you may call their outlandish behaviour, I don’t call it ‘leadership’. As Glenn Reynolds put it, “I’ll believe it’s a crisis when the people telling me it’s a crisis start acting like it’s a crisis”.

– Not holding my breath.

I forgot my own advice of never wrestling with a pig. You get dirty. She loves it. – Garth

#179 Marco on 12.12.18 at 2:01 pm

#40 Long-Time Lurker on 12.11.18 at 7:43 pm
This is a question I have from yesterday’s comments section.

What’s so great about Sun Tzu’s The Art of War? I tried to read it a few times and always stop after the first chapter because I think, “This is *&[email protected] obvious.”

Well, you obtain your position above a crowd (with a little help of your friends) and then piss on cattle beneath. You are above and that is your advantage.
That is about that.

#180 USA on 12.12.18 at 2:02 pm

How many wars have they won since the 1960’s? They can’t even defeat third world countries. Has USA ever gone to battle with a superpower? Russia and China signed an agreement, if one comes under attack the other will join them in battle. Can you imagine in your dreams USA going against two superpowers?

#181 Marco on 12.12.18 at 2:06 pm

DELETED

#182 saskatoon on 12.12.18 at 2:12 pm

you’re goin’ emo, garth.

#183 MF on 12.12.18 at 2:21 pm

#177 USA on 12.12.18 at 2:02 pm

The wars the US fought since the 60’s have been with their hands tied behind their back. If they were full on, the other side would have been easily defeated.

And make no mistake the US could take on Russia, China, and the entire world by themselves.

That navy is by far and wide the most powerful on earth. A huge naval blockade would strangle these landlocked countries and prevent them from accessing enough oil to continue any fight. The US mainland would also be protected from any invasion or attack while it pumps out new weapons and munitions the whole time. American oil would sustain the military.

The Air Force would neutralize any threats to ground troops.

MF

#184 Tater on 12.12.18 at 2:35 pm

178 Y. Knott on 12.12.18 at 2:00 pm

Finally, 4) the hypocrisy. Al Gore charged $1,000-each to pose with admirers at Copenhagen, and his house is (said to be) the only private dwelling visible from space with the naked eye; his energy usage surpasses that of many towns, and he tells us we have to cut back?
—————————————————————

Can’t take anyone seriously who thinks that Al Gore’s house can be seen from space. If this is the level of your critical thinking, why should anyone believe anything you write?

#185 Doug in London on 12.12.18 at 2:42 pm

I Shih Tzu Not! Dammit, if that isn’t funny I don’t know what is!

#186 IHCTD9 on 12.12.18 at 2:59 pm

#180 USA on 12.12.18 at 2:02 pm
How many wars have they won since the 1960’s? They can’t even defeat third world countries. Has USA ever gone to battle with a superpower? Russia and China signed an agreement, if one comes under attack the other will join them in battle. Can you imagine in your dreams USA going against two superpowers?
_____

As MF said, the USA could take out both Russia and China simultaneously. Do some reading on US military power, they could conceivably take on the entire world simultaneously and win.

Indeed, the US government usually puts heavy restraints on it’s forces in modern warfare, the days of indiscriminate carpet bombing are long gone.

Take the cuffs off, and let the US armed forces act on identified, and targets of opportunity without restraint, and there is just no chance for basically any country that wants to step up. Even then, there would be little collateral damage. Just country with an utterly destroyed infrastructure.

#187 not 1st on 12.12.18 at 3:00 pm

#166 Lee on 12.12.18 at 12:52 pm

—–

Don’t worry. The west has a strategy for a 2nd Trudeau term. Equalization will go to a referendum, non-renewables will be taken out of the formula and we will trim back the welfare queens in the country. They will get mad and try to separate again and this time we will hold the door open.

Don’t think the west is going to lie down like some dog. That’s not how this place was built.

#188 Best Defences on 12.12.18 at 3:04 pm

http://www.voltairenet.org/article175641.html
Nothing better than USA defending their country from enemies far and wide.

#189 Y. Knott on 12.12.18 at 3:06 pm

#184 Tater on 12.12.18 at 2:35 pm
If this is the level of your critical thinking, why should anyone believe anything you write?

– A [email protected] good question; sorry, I got nuthin’… ;)

#190 Renter's Revenge! on 12.12.18 at 3:07 pm

On a normal day the comment section is full of armchair economists and political scientists.

Today we are lucky enough to be in the presence of some armchair admirals and generals!

The honour is ours, sirs!

#191 Marco on 12.12.18 at 3:12 pm

MF on 12.12.18 at 2:21 pm
#177 USA on 12.12.18 at 2:02 pm

The wars the US fought since the 60’s have been with their hands tied behind their back. If they were full on, the other side would have been easily defeated.

And make no mistake the US could take on Russia, China, and the entire world by themselves.

That navy is by far and wide the most powerful on earth. A huge naval blockade would strangle these landlocked countries and prevent them from accessing enough oil to continue any fight. The US mainland would also be protected from any invasion or attack while it pumps out new weapons and munitions the whole time. American oil would sustain the military.

The Air Force would neutralize any threats to ground troops.

MF

Only war USA won after WWII is against Grenada.
In WWII USA fought alongside with USSR.
And finally attack China and Russia. World is eager to see that. And world is bigger than USA and its servants. I am really surprised that USA lost in Vietnam and Korea having such formidable ally like Canada.

#192 stage1dave on 12.12.18 at 3:19 pm

#171 Y Knott;

“Which ultimately, brings-up the question I’ve never gotten a successful answer to – what happens when a major nuclear power starts losing a war bigly, and decides it has nothing left to lose?”

Didn’t Israel’s leadership at onetime refer to that scenario as “the Samson Option”? Should be some links on the net.

All this discussion of military “what ifs” has me remembering that quote of Einstein’s: he wasn’t sure what weapons would be used to fight WW III, but he was certain WW IV would be fought with sticks and stones.

The next WW will be the last one for quite some time, and it’s doubtful that anyone left alive (in whatever remote armpit of the globe) will be spending too much of their time writing it’s respective history, assuming there’s anything left to record.

Personally, my interest in modern weapon systems has declined considerably in the last 25 years…once past the fascination of the technological abilities, one realizes their only purpose is the mass extermination of people, performed as expediently as possible.

As the old joke about the unveiling of the “next” deadly interceptor used to go;

“Will this thing actually work?” asks the General…”Hope not” replies the chief designer…”Why would you design and build something you hope doesn’t work?” the General queries…”Because if it doesn’t work, only a few people are gonna get killed” explains the designer; “if it actually does work, LOTS of people are gonna die!”

On a personal note, I’ve noticed having a few pics of Vimy Ridge, a couple of a Lanc and Hally warming up and getting a “green” before an op, really helps mitigate any serious interest in how the next generation of madmen will actually plan, fight, and exterminate yet another generation.

A large reference library helps as well, in case a person starts to forget about how things worked out the last time…

#193 AGuyInVancouver on 12.12.18 at 3:37 pm

#184 Tater on 12.12.18 at 2:35 pm

Can’t take anyone seriously who thinks that Al Gore’s house can be seen from space. If this is the level of your critical thinking, why should anyone believe anything you write?
_ _ _
Never underestimate the stupidity of Contards.

#194 Howard on 12.12.18 at 3:48 pm

#170 EB on 12.12.18 at 1:13 pm
It’s easy to dismiss the opposition as populism if you don’t like it, but I’m still not convinced that’s the appropriate moniker. The question at hand is, does the citizenry have the right (and the ability) under a globalist ruling class, to push back against policies which enforce profits ahead of sovereignty? Maybe not. But the forces at hand are deep and ancient, and waggling the corpses of AH and BM around yet again as totems against the zeitgeist is producing diminishing returns. The reaction is here, and it will be a mistake to minimize how strongly a non-trivial minority feel on the topic.

————————————————

I’m sure the answers are obvious but they elude me. Who or what are AH and BM?

#195 Figure it Out on 12.12.18 at 3:53 pm

“Only war USA won after WWII is against Grenada.”

What, Yugoslavia was over so quickly that you forgot about it? I’d have thought that the USA’s, ahem, accidental bombing of the Chinese embassy might make it memorable, but apparently not. As I recall, that one was over before the TV generals finished informing me that it couldn’t be won without boots on the ground.

#196 Old Books on 12.12.18 at 3:56 pm

#192 stage1dave – There was a used bookstore that opened up in a small mall during the 1990’s. I took at look around, and bought a couple about WW2. It was published in NYC; funded in NYC; and written by a scholar in NYC, and all were from the same organization for the one book dated 1954. The purpose was simple, because they instructed the scholar to document the truth before it was changed forever. I will not disclose what I read in over 300 pages – shocking!

#197 Blacksheep on 12.12.18 at 4:04 pm

Re: Donald Trump’s wall

The US Defense budget for 2019 is about 690 Billion.

https://dod.defense.gov/News/SpecialReports/Budget2019.aspx

The proposed wall between Mexico and the US cost has been recently updated to a more realistic value of 18 Billion for the required 722 miles.

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/border-issues/2018/08/06/cost-estimates-trumps-border-wall-could-cost-more-than-expected-report-says/919104002/

This mean this solid barrier between the two countries land mass, would cost approximately 0.024% of a single years defense budget at full completion. This structure would physically stop, illegal parties from entering the sovereign state that is the USA and would be considered a ‘defensive expenditure’ of tax payers dollars.
————————
“The wall is a symbol of political failure.mWhat a massive waste of money that could be spent in the advance of society. I pity those who support this archaic measure. – Garth”
————————-
I live in the Fraser Valley where we have many miles of unfenced / un walled border, with nothing more than a very small, shallow ditch a 4 X 4 could easily navigate, between the Canadian border and our good neighbors to the south, with roads on both sides.

We, do not require a wall between our two nations.

Why, because of the enforcement of the rule of law, by both countries.

Just try testing the border security / guards resolve, buy just jumping across the ditch (it’s that small) and you will get a swat team like response, from both sides of the border in minutes (US anyway)

So why does the US, not handle it’s border to the south, in the same manner?

OK show of hands, how many Canadian’s want to walk into the United States…nobody? That’s right. Now look to the southern border, at the multi thousand person caravans that has started arriving at the US border.

It seems the US was not processing the migrants fast enough to satisfy the mob, so a significant number attempted to rush the border, trying over whelm security to get in, while some even start throwing rocks at border guards?

This is called: Illegal immigration

Wiki quote:

“Illegal immigration refers to the migration of people into a country in ways that violate the immigration laws of that country, or the remaining in a country of people who no longer have the legal right to remain.”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illegal_immigration

Long story short, we (Can) are not a problem for the US, Mexico, lacking the rule of law in it’s own country is.

Why the hell did Mexico admit these massive caravans of non citizens into their country in the first place?

Since they chose to allow them in, why did the migrants not settle in the first country (Mexico) they arrived at, as they are expected to do, having escaped the ‘dangers’ of the home country they left, not keep on walking for another 2000 miles till to get to a more socialistic state and then demand entry.

How many countries did migrants / refugees cross, before deciding to settle in the land of milk & honey that is Germany?

Instead of disparaging migrants and wanting a wall, you might reflect on the courage, resolve and bravery it takes to uproot your family and head into unknown dangers in order to possibly find a better life. Immigration has always been about courage. The armchair combatants who sit at home and write on blogs about ‘mobs’ of barbarians at the gate would be wise to reflect upon this. – Garth

#198 Vic on 12.12.18 at 4:07 pm

Best USA economy in 10 years. Come on Garth give the man credit. He did what he said he would do. He pulled the USA out of a social justice downward spiral. If Clinton had won do you think there would be a 3+ GDP growth per quarter

You mean, like Obama had? – Garth

#199 IHCTD9 on 12.12.18 at 4:11 pm

I’m sure the answers are obvious but they elude me. Who or what are AH and BM?
__

Adolph and Benito

#200 Nineteen84 on 12.12.18 at 5:45 pm

#178 Y. Knott on 12.12.18 at 2:00 pm

Most rational people know that climate hysteria was always about wealth distribution never about climate. Get rid of the notion or beggar your country.

Tell it to the scientists. Are you one? – Garth
**********
– No, and they aren’t either, Garth; they’re shills advocating for money, in support of a global order that has stated it wants to abolish capitalism. Calling them ‘scientists’ is an insult to real scientists. I have the following objections to the Great Global Warming Scam ( – and yeah, I know you don’t care ;)

1) the hysteria. “No! The time for talking is past – we have to act NOW, to SAAAAAVE THE EARTH!!!” With all due respect, I’ve seen this movie before – several times in the past twenty years, and every catastrophe deadline that passes, they just redouble their volume and hype toward their new “It’ll REALLY end THIS TIME” date.

Just the facts, ma’am – I’ll draw my own interpretation, because I don’t trust yours.

2) The facts. I remember at the time, ~20 years ago, the icecaps WERE melting – on Mars – and another red-spot storm system was breaking-out on Jupiter. I hadn’t read the Enquirer that day, so I didn’t know how many men were on Mars and Jupiter, causing Global Warming there – but if the total was “none”, then could whatever was causing warming on Mars and Jupiter, be causing it here too?

I actually had an alarmist tell me that the Sun had been pretty-well discounted as a driver of global warming; what then? And the Arctic was losing ice cover at the time; yet during the same period the Antarctic had set new yearly accumulation records, every year since they started measuring it – and still is; the only part of the Antarctic losing ice is that peninsula that’s been found to have a rift fault and 60+ active volcanoes under the ice. The Arctic and Antarctic are on the same planet, are they not?

3) The lies, notably on the part of ‘scientists’. Michael Mann “I’m a Nobel Prize winner” – ahh Sir, the Nobel Committee says ‘no you aren’t either’; but he still says he is. His hockey stick graph, which once the algorithm was finally pried from his bloodied fingers, was shown to give that result no matter what data you fed into it – including the New York telephone book – but it’s still touted with fury, and the UN IPCC put it on the cover of one of their recent Reports.

The other models – that predict dire warming that hasn’t happened – but it WILL, just you wait. The temperature measurements – all of which are rising precipitously, except for the satellite and balloon measurements, you know, the REAL measurements. The Hadley CRU’s unprofessional and occasionally hysterical efforts to smear and discredit other scientists who disagreed with them, and ultimately destroying their raw data “because they moved to a new building, and couldn’t store it”. The “temperature corrections”, the “rationalisations”, the “adjusted averages” – that always adjust only upward. If they’re “average”, shouldn’t half of them adjust downward, instead of none?

Finally, 4) the hypocrisy. Al Gore charged $1,000-each to pose with admirers at Copenhagen, and his house is (said to be) the only private dwelling visible from space with the naked eye; his energy usage surpasses that of many towns, and he tells us we have to cut back? David Suzuki divides his time between his Kitsilano mansion and his estate on Quadra Island, while telling us we have to live like our grandparents? { – which I wouldn’t mind, personally; Nanny & Grandpa’s house was SWANK! – } And while telling us we have to cut back, David Suzuki has five kids – but that’s okay, they’re being raised by David Suzuki.

Both of these clowns are VILE, and whatever you may call their outlandish behaviour, I don’t call it ‘leadership’. As Glenn Reynolds put it, “I’ll believe it’s a crisis when the people telling me it’s a crisis start acting like it’s a crisis”.

– Not holding my breath.

***************
I forgot my own advice of never wrestling with a pig. You get dirty. She loves it. – Garth
/////////////////////////////////////

The guy (or gal) goes thru a lot of effort to provide ‘reasons’ to not take the (fake) scientists seriously (another version of “Merchants of Fear” you so despise, Garth), and all you’ve got for rebuttal is an insult!
You want everyone else to be respectful, but you’re not leading by example here. Sorry to say…

1984

ps. I agree with him (her).

#201 Y. Knott on 12.12.18 at 7:30 pm

I forgot my own advice of never wrestling with a pig. You get dirty. She loves it. – Garth

– Quite alright – I’ve been called worse! Honoured to get a response out of you – and I actually got a giggle out of it; I’ve used that line several times myself.

Point of contention being the size of Al Gore’s house – I looked it up, the biggest problem is choosing “which one?” – and they’re all BIG. A quick Duckduckgo (I don’t use Google-anything if I can avoid it) search says he uses between 21 and 34 times as much energy as the average – possible sensationalism on the 34-times, I don’t know for sure.

But I do know he’s vile. Cheers!

#202 KLNR on 12.12.18 at 7:54 pm

@#200 Nineteen84 on 12.12.18 at 5:45 pm
#178 Y. Knott on 12.12.18 at 2:00 pm

Most rational people know that climate hysteria was always about wealth distribution never about climate. Get rid of the notion or beggar your country.

Tell it to the scientists. Are you one? – Garth
**********
– No, and they aren’t either, Garth; they’re shills advocating for money, in support of a global order that has stated it wants to abolish capitalism. Calling them ‘scientists’ is an insult to real scientists. I have the following objections to the Great Global Warming Scam ( – and yeah, I know you don’t care ;)

1) the hysteria. “No! The time for talking is past – we have to act NOW, to SAAAAAVE THE EARTH!!!” With all due respect, I’ve seen this movie before – several times in the past twenty years, and every catastrophe deadline that passes, they just redouble their volume and hype toward their new “It’ll REALLY end THIS TIME” date.

Just the facts, ma’am – I’ll draw my own interpretation, because I don’t trust yours.

2) The facts. I remember at the time, ~20 years ago, the icecaps WERE melting – on Mars – and another red-spot storm system was breaking-out on Jupiter. I hadn’t read the Enquirer that day, so I didn’t know how many men were on Mars and Jupiter, causing Global Warming there – but if the total was “none”, then could whatever was causing warming on Mars and Jupiter, be causing it here too?

I actually had an alarmist tell me that the Sun had been pretty-well discounted as a driver of global warming; what then? And the Arctic was losing ice cover at the time; yet during the same period the Antarctic had set new yearly accumulation records, every year since they started measuring it – and still is; the only part of the Antarctic losing ice is that peninsula that’s been found to have a rift fault and 60+ active volcanoes under the ice. The Arctic and Antarctic are on the same planet, are they not?

3) The lies, notably on the part of ‘scientists’. Michael Mann “I’m a Nobel Prize winner” – ahh Sir, the Nobel Committee says ‘no you aren’t either’; but he still says he is. His hockey stick graph, which once the algorithm was finally pried from his bloodied fingers, was shown to give that result no matter what data you fed into it – including the New York telephone book – but it’s still touted with fury, and the UN IPCC put it on the cover of one of their recent Reports.

The other models – that predict dire warming that hasn’t happened – but it WILL, just you wait. The temperature measurements – all of which are rising precipitously, except for the satellite and balloon measurements, you know, the REAL measurements. The Hadley CRU’s unprofessional and occasionally hysterical efforts to smear and discredit other scientists who disagreed with them, and ultimately destroying their raw data “because they moved to a new building, and couldn’t store it”. The “temperature corrections”, the “rationalisations”, the “adjusted averages” – that always adjust only upward. If they’re “average”, shouldn’t half of them adjust downward, instead of none?

Finally, 4) the hypocrisy. Al Gore charged $1,000-each to pose with admirers at Copenhagen, and his house is (said to be) the only private dwelling visible from space with the naked eye; his energy usage surpasses that of many towns, and he tells us we have to cut back? David Suzuki divides his time between his Kitsilano mansion and his estate on Quadra Island, while telling us we have to live like our grandparents? { – which I wouldn’t mind, personally; Nanny & Grandpa’s house was SWANK! – } And while telling us we have to cut back, David Suzuki has five kids – but that’s okay, they’re being raised by David Suzuki.

Both of these clowns are VILE, and whatever you may call their outlandish behaviour, I don’t call it ‘leadership’. As Glenn Reynolds put it, “I’ll believe it’s a crisis when the people telling me it’s a crisis start acting like it’s a crisis”.

– Not holding my breath.

***************
I forgot my own advice of never wrestling with a pig. You get dirty. She loves it. – Garth
/////////////////////////////////////

The guy (or gal) goes thru a lot of effort to provide ‘reasons’ to not take the (fake) scientists seriously (another version of “Merchants of Fear” you so despise, Garth), and all you’ve got for rebuttal is an insult!
You want everyone else to be respectful, but you’re not leading by example here. Sorry to say…

1984

ps. I agree with him (her).
_________________________________

Garth, love your rebuttals to some of the tripe posted on here, but you can’t fix stupid lol

#203 acdel on 12.12.18 at 8:59 pm

#150 IHCTD9

Good post!

#204 stats freak on 12.12.18 at 11:36 pm

Key-riced! Garth – Can you perhaps consider a maximum number of keystrokes per submission? The long windedness (is that a word?) of so many of these posts is getting out of hand…..

#205 Frank Strongback on 12.13.18 at 2:12 am

#156, Garth, the East Anglia University email dump explicitly explained how peer review study applicants were being extorted and threatened by a small group who controlled the academic publishing rights ( the infamous Micheal Mann etc) to go silent on the falsehoods, lies and inconsistencies of what was being published by climate hysterics. It is openly concluded now that 99% of scientists were being forced to agree with the nonsense crowd or lose grants, positions and peer review status nessecary to maintain their academic standing. Frankly I’m shocked that you are so far behind or will fully ignorant in this subject as it stands currently.

99% of scientists agree in climate change has withered to around two percent who receive grants from UN agencies to continue to pump propaganda into a rapidly deflating balloon.

Please read the original documents, the Brundtland Commission, that invented climate taxation as a means to fund wealth distribution. The flurry of climate conferences recently show that the funding model is collapsing and that side has become increasing desperate and belligerant. The Emperor has no clothes and it’s been 10 years of blasting propaganda that will have to the next big social issue, the hysteria, is in itself, the world’s biggest negative.

#206 Eks dee Siple on 12.13.18 at 10:27 am

Hey G-man. Long time. So, I see you are starting to see the light. I appreciate this opportunity to remind everyone that ALL NEWS IS FAKE. Thomson Reuters family is the wealthiest in Canada for a good reason.
For yet another example: Do you blog dogs actually take the Huawei case seriously? Can’t you see it’s just all made up? Really? As soon as they looped in the detained Canadian with the connection to North Korea and Dennis Rodman?! Give your heads a shake.