‘Stay far away’

First the easy stuff.

“I’ll make it short,” says Toronto Paul. “33, single, 85k a year with 10-20% bonus potential. 230k saved, 35k in line of credit (carried me when I lost my job). Own a property in YYC that has 206k mortgage and I think I could get 230k for. Rented out for last 6 years, tenant pays 1300, costs me to 1400 a month. I paid 258k and have owned it for 8 years.

“Debating if I should sell my place or continue to rent? I don’t see the oil and gas situation in YYC getting any better that’s why I want to sell. Thanks – please please please answer! I am so confused as what to do. “

Seriously, Paul? You sound like an industrious guy, having saved about four years’ worth of after-tax income. So why the confusion? The condo in Cowtown is not an asset, but a liability. It’s worth thirty grand less than eight years ago. It loses money monthly. If you sell now the proceeds will barely cover liabilities. You walk away with zero. Less than zero, after eight years of red ink. And it’s 3,400 km away.

There are but two reasons not to sell. First, you’re a cowboy and selling for a loss is an admission you made a mistake. Cowboys would rather have an arm ripped off riding a brahma bull and walk home with a bloody stump than do that. Second, you think Calgary condos will rise in value. Pffft. Not happening.

Calgary housing is mired in misery. Month after month it’s the same story of declining sales, swelling listings and softening prices. Last month another 17% drop in deals, with prices down 4%. It’s been almost a decade now since the market crested, with no sign of recovery. Even the real estate board spokeslady sounds depressed: “Recent challenges in the energy sector have weighed on consumer confidence over the past month. Combined with weakness in the employment market and further gains in lending rates, this is impacting ownership demand.”

Of course, the NDP government just made things worse by announcing an OPEC-style production cap will be slapped on the industry starting next month. While that boosted the price of Canadian crude, it also sent a message to corps thinking about investing in the oil patch: Go away.

Give it up, Paul. You learned the lesson.

Now the hard stuff:

“I’m a daily reader, sporadic commenter and full time dog lover,” says Brandon. “I’ve sought your wisdom in the past and I feel like it’s lead me down a good path (thanks). I’ve said before this blog has really taught me a lot. In your ‘Trapped’ post from July 10th, yours truly asked about selling my Guelph condo. I figured the market would allow me to get 330k and I have since sold the condo. That’s one problem gone and a new one has surfaced.

“My plan was to manage the money myself.

“Insert Saturday night. By chance I had an opportunity to chat with a Professor of Derivative Securities at one of our major Universities. Something he said that stayed with me was ‘Stay away from the stock market. Stay as far away as possible.’ The comment took the wind out of my sail since this has been my plan for months. He explained that historically there’s a bear market/recession every 10 years and he’s currently short on the market. He mentioned the VIX is starting to indicate higher volatility and recommended I don’t risk anything.

“I respect this man’s opinion since he’s far more educated in this space than I am, he’s also a family friend so I know he wouldn’t intentionally steer me wrong. Now I’m left not knowing what to think. I was ready to pull the trigger on my plan and now the conversation I had is picking away at me. Maybe he thought I was going to pick individual stocks and dump all my money into cannabis. I understand that it’s talk and a lot of people talk. Is it noise? Am I reacting too much on emotion? Or is there something to what he’s saying? The money I’m using is every penny I have in the world so making the most educated choice I can make is important to me. Thanks for reading this Garth, and for running the best damn blog around.”

A professor of derivative securities? Who’s currently shorting the market? Does his mom know?

Hey, Brandon, if the guy was an equity-picking genius, he probably wouldn’t be spending his time hanging around a campus packed with young, nubile coeds. (I may reconsider that last sentence.) In any case, bear markets, in which stocks lose 20% of their value, do happen routinely. But they last an average of only 350 days, are followed by rapid recoveries and occur for a reason. Typically it’s a recession (several quarters of negative economic growth), or a rapid run-up in rates, a burst of inflation, mounting unemployment, commodity price shock or public policy mistakes. Bears don’t wander in on their own, or because there’s a cycle. There isn’t. The prof made it up.

Nor does volatility bring carnage. Ignore the Vix. Noise. Focus on the fundamentals. Unemployment is at the lowest point in 50 years. Corporate profits have been extreme. The economy of North American is robust. Inflation is subdued. Oil costs a third of what it did before the GFC. The US has slashed taxes while technology is making the world more productive and efficient than ever before. There’s no recession on the horizon and no bear lurking.

Of  course, there will be more turmoil thanks to Trump, China, Brexit, French Toast, populism, central banks and that woman George Clooney wed. More noise. So just follow the rules. Be balanced. Own safe assets as well as growth ones. Be diversified. No individual stocks, but ETFs instead. Spread exposure across Canada, the US and the world. No crypto. No weed. Be tax-efficient. Brim your TFSA. Get the proper weightings, then forget about the chatter.

Remember the odds are with long-term investors, no matter how much a shorting, lubricated academic might try to convince you otherwise. Over the decades the market has risen 78% of the time. In any ten-year period there’s an 88% chance of inflating values. I’ll take those odds anytime. In fact, during the worst bear of our lifetimes (2008-10) people with B&D portfolios averaged a 5% annual return while the stock market lost 57% and took seven years to recover.

Here’s the best advice I can give: if you invest, stay invested. Ignore the merchants of fear. But if you harbour doubts, don’t even start. You’ll panic, sell into a storm and lose. Hence the difference between knowledge and wisdom.

121 comments ↓

#1 Debtslavecreator on 12.10.18 at 5:37 pm

The blue chip US markets are much more likely to be a lot higher by 2023-2024 than lower
In my view as long as the Dow holds 21500 on the month end close its a long term hold / buy under 24 k with sights on 38-40 k by 2024
Short term don’t be surprised by a powerful dead cat bounce of 8-10% into mid January before the final scary mini crash which should bottom in March-May

The problems are in the bond market

The next BIG ONE is going to happen but no one knows when

Those holding most of all of their long term money in GICs and or savings accounts will be done in the final stage of any huge monetary crisis
Those trying to be most safe will look smart for 3-6 months next year and maybe in the early-mid 2020 s but the last laugh will be on them and on those whose income is mostly pension and annuity
People in Canadstan will come to understand why their currency is aptly called the Loonie

#2 Guy in Calgary on 12.10.18 at 5:44 pm

Just put all your money in BTC. It is like, super cheap right now and the fundamentals are like, so good.

#3 Oakville Sucks on 12.10.18 at 5:53 pm

Canada is toast! I sold all Canadian equities a WHILE ago. All in Global and US markets. There is nothing going for us thanks to the Trudeau Government.

#4 Ummmmm on 12.10.18 at 5:55 pm

The Rothchild cabal is planning something huge for 2019! Buy tangible assets.

#5 SmarterSquirrel on 12.10.18 at 5:56 pm

Brandon talking with his prof leads me to believe he’s in his 20s. Brandon as someone in your 20s you should be filled with glee any time the market craters. It’s like a Black Friday or Cyber Monday or Boxing Day sale but on financial assets. You have so much time to prepare for retirement, getting a chance to buy assets at low valuations so early in life is a great thing.

Garth is absolutely right. Once you start investing. Stay invested. Even if the market keeps going lower. Eventually it will rise. I’d suggest you buy ETFs and buy with a portion of your money once a month. Spread out the purchasing. Find some ETFs that give you a diversified portfolio like Garth has discussed many times or look at one of those ETFs that gives you a good mix of global equities and bonds.

As a beginner you just need to do three steps. Open a self directed investing account (hopefully with a TFSA, an RRSP and an unregistered Cash account), fund those accounts and then buy ETFs. I give some detail on those three steps here https://smartersquirrel.com/three-easy-steps-for-beginner-investors

Or find someone qualified to help you manage it. I hear the guy who runs greaterfool does that for his day job.

#6 In Garth We Trust on 12.10.18 at 5:56 pm

“Here’s the best advice I can give: if you invest, stay invested. Ignore the merchants of fear. But if you harbour doubts, don’t even start. You’ll panic, sell into a storm and lose. Hence the difference between knowledge and wisdom.”

The bearded mystic sage, all knowing, all wise, financial oracle, debunker of fake financial advisors, former National Revenue Minister, dog lover extraordinaire and all round jolly good fellow has once again shown his sagacity. Truer words were never spoken and all ye blog dogs ignore this advice at your own peril. P.S. Don’t forget to send Captain Garth a nice Christmas present in gratitude for all the FREE ADVICE he has given everyone this past year. I hear he likes his old scotch….

#7 Rick on 12.10.18 at 5:57 pm

The best advice is to never panic; what goes down, goes up 75% of the time. I am always invested, and never panic. I remember my portfolio dropping 40% in 2000. I never panic. It always goes back up.

#8 espressobob on 12.10.18 at 5:58 pm

This late day rally is most disappointing. Bring on all the mayhem and carnage.

That would be worth buying into.

#9 Dave on 12.10.18 at 6:00 pm

With no megaprojects on the radar in Alberta for the foreseeable future, why would house prices rise here? Come to a barren prairie city with 5 months of snow and sub zero temperatures. Instead of focusing on diversifying, the economy they continue to waste their efforts on pipelines, when there is a glut of oil in the States.

#10 The Real Mark on 12.10.18 at 6:09 pm

Yet another data point that late 2010 was the peak of the Calgary RE market, and there’s been stagnation ever since.

Of course, you won’t hear the Realtors tell you that because they hide behind their non-sales-mix adjusted prices. Even though, in the post-2010 peak era, there was a significant dramatic shift.

Unemployment is at the lowest point in 50 years.

I personally don’t believe this for a moment. When unemployment was low in 1999/2000, there legitimately was wage inflation. Today, there is next to no wage inflation, and there doesn’t seem to be any big rush to productivity-enhancing investment like there was in the late 1990s when things were legitimately tight. Long-term US government (or Canadian for that matter) debt isn’t indicating any risk of inflation either, which would be the natural consequence of the economy reaching its capacity if indeed unemployment was low.

So the most likely scenario is that the ‘unemployment’ numbers are completely unadulterated nonsense. After all, they don’t even count new college grads unemployed. They don’t count people who work less than they want to unemployed. They don’t count an engineer who has to deliver pizzas or drive Uber as being unemployed. Honestly calculated, unemployment is still probably closer to 10-15%.

#11 Cowboy on 12.10.18 at 6:11 pm

I only met a real cowboy once in my life who was on a vacation. I was in Vegas at the time staying at a small motel with a pool called the Tropicana for $25.00 a night. He was by the pool, and we chatted asking him what he did for a living, and he shoed horses doing a few per day at $100 each. The average wage was about $5.00 an hour in Canada, so you do the math.

#12 Victoria Real Estate Update on 12.10.18 at 6:13 pm

TRUE OR FALSE (searching for a grain of truth in the unsubstantiated claims of Canadian real estate “experts”)

“Canada’s economy has totally become dependent on higher and higher house prices. This has become clear over the past 20 years. The wealth effect is what pays the bills in Canada now. Let the wealth effect disappear and we’re totally screwed and the government knows it.

To keep house prices rising, every 3 to 4 years the government brings in policy that ignites another speculative frenzy that sends house prices soaring.

Don’t be confused – it isn’t families and their stagnating incomes that have been behind the rapid price appreciation. It’s speculators! And CMHC stands behind and supports Canada’s R/E speculators, taking all of the risk away from the banks and putting it on taxpayers.

The last time Canada brought in policy to induce another CMHC-backed R/E speculation frenzy was in 2015 when it lowered the (already emergency level) BoC rate twice that year. It was a clear sign to its valued speculators that the government had their back. 2015’s CMHC-backed speculation frenzy sent prices in Vancouver, Victoria and Toronto soaring to even more extreme bubble levels in no time.

Clearly the government waits until house prices start to fall and the economy starts to sputter and then – POOF – suddenly policy is brought in that ignites another CMHC-backed speculative frenzy. Speculators rush into the market causing house prices to soar, rescuing Canada’s ailing economy yet again.”

*****************************

There exists no proof that this is the government‘s strategy. But let’s examine it anyway.

To those who know little about world housing bubble history it may appear that Canada has found the key to easy and permanent economic prosperity through bringing in occasional policy changes to ignite another real estate speculative buying frenzy.

But 200 years of world housing bubble history shows that all countries with housing bubbles tried to maintain their bubbles (and the associated wealth effect) the exact same way. And history shows that in each case this strategy worked for some time (years) but inevitably failed for every country when house prices ended up falling back to the long-term mean.

Indeed history has shown that there comes a time with every housing bubble when new policy fails to ignite the market and the downward price forces – extreme debt, extreme prices, the weakness of a speculation-dependent economy, etc. – take control of house prices, pushing them back down to the long-term mean.

If Canada does bring in policy in 2019 that, on paper, should have the effect of increasing sales and prices, the housing market may or may not react positively to it. This might prove to be the time that policy fails to rescue Canada’s falling bubble market – an inevitable fact that every housing bubble in history has been forced to face. In this case house prices would continue to correct until they reach the long-term mean, reversing the economy-boosting wealth effect along the way.

#13 Unhinged Trader on 12.10.18 at 6:18 pm

“Stay away from the stock market”

The guy is probably a rock-hoarding Boomer.

What’s with Boomer’s and shiny metals which produce no income and an inflation-adjusted 2-century return of less than a GIC?

P.S.

When does this obnoxious dog-posting streak end? Animals which were cruelly mutilated by their owners and devolved into servile, mentally defective creatures trained to react to the cues of their masters should not be celebrated.

I weep for what we’ve done to the wolf.

#14 pay your taxes on 12.10.18 at 6:19 pm

Many references to corporate profits, but what about their debt levels? Are they really borrowing money to fund share buybacks in order to jack up share prices and increase bonuses? If so, it sounds like one hell of a ponzi scheme. No wonder they’re screaming about rate increases.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolombo/2018/08/29/the-u-s-is-experiencing-a-dangerous-corporate-debt-bubble/#6c21dd25600e

The stock market sounds as bloated as the housing market. Less leveraged perhaps but you can’t live in an ETF and the poor returns on that money don’t pay the rent in any place you’d want to live. Ok, I’ll go back to the glue bag now.

#15 gfd on 12.10.18 at 6:21 pm

Real estate pump working overtime.

Canada’s high home prices likely to just stay high: says CPA chief economist Joannah Connolly/Glacier Media Real Estate DECEMBER 10, 2018 12:28 PM

https://www.vancourier.com/real-estate/canada-s-high-home-prices-likely-to-just-stay-high-economist-1.23526744

Housing-starts data beat expectations in November, CMHC says. THE CANADIAN PRESS, PUBLISHED DECEMBER 10, 2018
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/the-market/article-housing-starts-data-beats-expectations-in-november-cmhc/?cmpid=rss

REAL ESTATE, Home building in Canada beats forecasts
https://o.canada.com/real-estate/annual-pace-of-housing-starts-picked-up-in-november-tops-expectations/wcm/076dd171-25cd-49b0-98c0-9bacf0749da9

Canadian housing starts rise more than forecast in November
By GREG QUINNBloomberg
Mon., Dec. 10, 2018
https://www.thestar.com/business/2018/12/10/canadian-housing-starts-rise-more-than-forecast-in-november.html

#16 bunny on 12.10.18 at 6:27 pm

Garth,

We interviewed a few wealth managers. One told us not to invest in ETFs due to liquidity issues. Her business model is an individual stock portfolio under AUM fees. What is your take on that ? I am only interested in broad market ETFs, not very specialized ones.

Major ETFs are completely liquid. Cross her off the list. – Garth

#17 Mohammad on 12.10.18 at 6:33 pm

Thank you Garth. Every post you put up gives me hope! Keep them coming!

#18 Graeme on 12.10.18 at 6:36 pm

Buy stock when the markets appear to hit bottom, not before. They have a long way to go. And historically they can go down and stay down a veryong time..decades. It’s happened in my lifetime. This isn’t market timing. It’s what is referred to as a no brainer.

Um, what decades? – Garth

#19 gfd on 12.10.18 at 6:38 pm

. . . . and don’t forget Yukon
Yukon real estate prices, sales hit record highs. ‘We know that the Yukon economy is doing well, and there’s more demand for housing’
CBC News · Posted: Dec 10, 2018

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/yukon-real-estate-2018-1.4939771

#20 Graeme on 12.10.18 at 6:41 pm

Buy stock when the markets appear to hit bottom, not before. They have a long way to go. And historically they can go down and stay down a veryong time..decades. It’s happened in my lifetime. This isn’t market timing. It’s what is referred to as a no brainer.

You have no idea where bottom is. Nor does anyone else. Nor is there a reason for a significant decline. So, yeah, you are market timing. It never works. – Garth

#21 Oil Buff Stanley on 12.10.18 at 6:49 pm

When Warren looks at the Canadian Oil Patch today does he think to himself.. “be Greedy when others are fearful..” ?

#22 Figure it Out on 12.10.18 at 6:51 pm

I have to ask. You’re all “stay balanced; can’t time the market.” But only a few months ago your acolytes were posting here saying reduce duration in the fixed income portfolio to reduce butthurt due to rising rates. Which would have been great if rates kept going up — but they didn’t.

So your shop’s credo is Don’t try to Time the Market and stay Balanced, or… not so much?

My colleagues did not offer actionable advice on bond investing. Our weightings have not changed in some time. – Garth

#23 Prof in da houze on 12.10.18 at 7:03 pm

I have to confess I agree with the prof. Better first wait for the 10+ percent drop in the equity market and then invest, if you must, then to start now. It is really no different than investing in the housing market; same advice here. The everything bubble is only now starting to burst. Even if the drop in stock and housing values in the coming year were to be less than 10%, which I doubt, it still makes sense to wait. Heck, even if the odds of a 3 percent drop are high you should clearly wait. And who here does not honestly believe we will see a sizable drop in all these bubbles in the coming years?

Based on what? – Garth

#24 espressobob on 12.10.18 at 7:04 pm

#2 Guy in Calgary

Yes, bitcoin is an excellent investment. Very profitable over time like any other commodity play. I’m sure most individuals loaded to the teeth on this ponzi scheme are quite pleased with that decision.

You make your bed, now go sleep in it.

#25 White House Adult Daycare Worker on 12.10.18 at 7:14 pm

EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITY

White House Chief of Staff

Start Date: January 1, 2019

End Date: Impeachment date or July 4, 2019, whichever comes first

PLEASE! Blog Dogs, we are desperate to fill this position but have zero applicants so far.

This job could be yours faster than you can get a HELOC or a MasterCard increase.

Do you have a pulse?

Can you shut up?

You are qualified!

Mark, if you apply you can work remotely part time from your mom’s basement.

Garth, if you apply you can bring the Amazons and bandit with you.

Pleeeeeeeeaaaaaaaaassssssse !!!!!

#26 NOSTRADAMUS on 12.10.18 at 7:15 pm

Garth, your Quote, “There’s no recession on the horizon and no bear lurking “. Nostradamus disagrees.
The housing market appears to be cracking up. Existing and new home sales are on the decline. Similarly the pace of home appreciation has declined month after month. Soon enough there will be more and more reports of actual home prices in decline.
Auto manufacturing and housing are both canaries in the poorly ventilated coal mine. In particular, these two sectors are very sensitive to credit costs. A modest rise in interest rates and they keel over. No doubt there are many encumbered corporations that are one or two quarterly earnings reports from slumping over.
A winner in todays economic world is the man or woman losing ground slowly. I see a confidence recession coming. You can trust me, as the teller of truth in the land of gypsies, tramps and thieves.

#27 reynolds531 on 12.10.18 at 7:19 pm

#16 bunny

ETFs are mutual fund trusts. Assets are held separately from the managers own assets, by a custodial bank. You can literally call and have them redeem your units in kind. They will deliver underlying securities to your account.

Liquidity and counterparty risk are only a problem if they’re a problem with whatever your etfc invested in.

#28 AK on 12.10.18 at 7:23 pm

“By chance I had an opportunity to chat with a Professor of Derivative Securities at one of our major Universities. Something he said that stayed with me was ‘Stay away from the stock market. Stay as far away as possible.’ ”
=====================================
This is very sad. This Prof is full of crap…

#29 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.10.18 at 7:38 pm

Geez, that mutt passed out in the driveway reminds me of…….my youth…. after a major bender and almost making it home to my bed.
God Bless 4am irrigation timers to keep the neighbours unaware of my drinking faux pas……

#30 Dolce Vita on 12.10.18 at 7:43 pm

Good advice as always.

Garth, I was touched by your Cowboy, Brahma bull and bloody stump story.

So much so, that a few puffs of dust were shed from my eyes.

And they wonder why we wanted to let the Eastern Children Born out of Wedlock freeze.

—————————————

PS:

“nubile coeds” – they’re nimble as well.

Buonanotte.

#31 palebird on 12.10.18 at 7:44 pm

#19 Yukon

The Yukon is in a bubble that is going to let go and it will be ugly. If you have real estate take your profits and run

#32 yvrguy on 12.10.18 at 7:44 pm

Garth and blog dogs, any thoughts on PSP ETF for private equity investment and an uncorrelated asset class?

#33 Juve101 on 12.10.18 at 7:45 pm

Why go to the shrink when you can read Garth. Dose of sanity each and every time. Thank you sir!

#34 Kelly on 12.10.18 at 7:45 pm

Would-be Cowboy “Paul” should consider hanging on a bit longer.

Quebec, armed with its fresh $13 billion transfer from the other Provinces, is rumoured to be looking for sound investments.

If there is one thing the Trust Funds Twins know, it’s spending other people’s money in questionable areas.
Their advice will be considered by those blessed with this windfall.

If not spent in Alberta (from where it came), where else?

So … my advice to Paul is … hang in there.

#35 Long-Time Lurker on 12.10.18 at 8:01 pm

#180 Long Time Lurker on 12.10.18 at 11:05 am
I think there are other measurement that could’ve been implemented instead of arresting the CFO of the company. There are enough companies all over the world doing business with Iran, the usual way is to sanction the company so that they can no longer operate in US or do business with any company that wants to do business in the US.

Just for shi+ and giggles, what if one day China detains Justin Trudeau for smoking weed in canada, which is a crime in china?

>Not me again. Long Time Lurker get your own handle… or else put up some good UFO clips every so often.

#36 Lawnboy on 12.10.18 at 8:02 pm

@#25 WHAD Worker

I am presently working as a lifeguard in a car wash…
Never done the Big House Gig, sure would like to try!!!!

LB

#37 Unemployed Mark on 12.10.18 at 8:03 pm

#10

Just because *you* are unemployed, doesn’t mean that 15% of Canadians are.

Take some personal responsibility!

#38 For those about to flop... on 12.10.18 at 8:09 pm

Just gimme a chance.

Well, after I came home from bashing the tools around for 8 hours and freshened up with a shower, I sat down and opened up my Zolo Folder.

To make it easier on me and less time consuming, I have hundreds of houses in my favourites folder,where it is easier to track reductions and it separates the ones no longer on the market and then you have to open them to see if they are sold or just removed.

I noticed a new one today sold ,Monday doesn’t seem to be the busiest day of the week, nor Friday, Saturday and Sunday,most of the action seems to happen in the middle of the week,Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

This in part sums up also unless I am doing a CONFIRMED PINK SNOW session why there aren’t as many posts on the weekends,when perhaps I might have the most time to do them.

Anyway,back to the main point of this post,after I realize one is sold I then go to Zealty to find out what it sold for to do a Recent sale report.

I’m not sure what’s really going on but the other day I called it data masking as a heap of sales are not being put up in a timely manner.

During the summer on Zolo a heap of cases were taken off with just removed written beside them and then retroactively they were tagged as sold with dates,sometimes 4 or 5 months previous.

None of these houses are up on Zealty,even if you do sales in the last year and also none of them have been updated on b.c assessment,even though some of them sold apparently in the first half of the year and in a lot of clear cut cases they seem to be updated to September of this year

What’s up with that?

I don’t even blame Zealty as they are probably only able to put up what the MLS system clears.

I would love my buddy Adam Major of Zealty to chime in on all this, as surely it should be all or nothing.

I could list a whole heap from the summer but I will just do a dirty dozen of recent sales that seem to be lost in the system.

5958 Sprott st,Burnaby.

12331 Greenland Dr. Richmond

101-1318 Homer st,Vancouver.

305 40th ave,Vancouver.

1208- 1009 Expo Blvd,Vancouver.

8060 Dalemore Rd.Richmond.

1310 129 st,Surrey.

12651 15th ave, Surrey.

11786 Summit Crescent,Delta.

21110 80th ave,Langley.

341 Johnston st,New West.

6828 Ontario st Vancouver.

One theory we can throw right out the window is that they were all heavy hitters that lost a lot of money.

These are just run of the mill cases in the types of areas that people ask for assistance in deciphering just exactly is happening in their part of Greater Vancouver.

Most likely a mixed bag of wins, losses and Pink Draws.

Let’s see if Pink Snow and Greaterfool readers can help me to help them…

M44BC

#39 Steven Rowlandson on 12.10.18 at 8:10 pm

“Calgary condos will rise in value. Pffft. Not happening.”

That sounds about right. There is much further to fall for home prices everywhere before any man Jack with a job can buy a home and have a family on one income.

#40 Terry on 12.10.18 at 8:11 pm

“The money I’m using is every penny I have in the world”

Wow…..seriously??? If this guy is wanting to invest with money he cannot afford to lose……….then why is he even investing in the first place? You should only invest money that you can afford to lose so that if it does happen your lifestyle will not be affected.

#41 We Are Not As Dumb As You Think on 12.10.18 at 8:15 pm

After the pursuit of freedom overcame the pursuit of wealth – every one was happy. Go tell the banks, the politicians, the realtors and the builders to go get a life. Enjoy yours – quit funding theirs!

#42 Mutual Funds on 12.10.18 at 8:28 pm

Stay away like the plague, and the banks are selling their funds for investment too. Fees are too high, portfolios change with buyouts; liquidity can become a nightmare on a run, and management can change like the wind. Do not ever buy into a Mutual Fund because you will be sorry.

#43 The Real Mark on 12.10.18 at 8:39 pm

“#37 Unemployed Mark on 12.10.18 at 8:03 pm “

Rude, dishonest, completely and utterly uncalled for.

Grow up.

#44 genbizx on 12.10.18 at 8:42 pm

DELETED

#45 Oil North on 12.10.18 at 8:47 pm

Ok Folks, what’s it going to take to get Oil to $80-$100 in short order and have Canadian Oil becoming the Super Power once again like O’ Harpo was talking about last mid-decade?

#46 Oilaphant on 12.10.18 at 8:49 pm

Agree with everything Garth said except staying away from weed stocks. That sector has just gone through a huge correction and has imho very good long term growth potrntial. As Garth usually advides use a diversified ETF like HMMJ; throw 5 to 10% into it now and let it ride for a good decade at least. I think it’s not a terrible move at this time.

#47 AisA on 12.10.18 at 8:58 pm

Happy housing crash can’t do it all so…

Our housing market ends with a terrible crash that will suck… alot. There is nothing that can save it. The debt is too much, the population too low, no matter how many are allowed in. The debt load is too great “TO BE CARRIED BY THE YOUNG AND IMMIGRANTS” end of story.

#48 young & foolish on 12.10.18 at 9:02 pm

Some elderly financial guy with a heart problem still insists that you are better off buying broad index funds as opposed to ETFs because they are more difficult to trade and therefore more likely to keep you out of trouble :P

#49 young & foolish on 12.10.18 at 9:07 pm

I know some old guys who only hold gold and real estate. Temped to call them stupid, but they are all quite wealthy. Sometimes investing seems complicated.

#50 tccontrarian on 12.10.18 at 9:11 pm

Lots to comment on here:

1. “Cowboys would rather have an arm ripped off riding a brahma bull and walk home with a bloody stump than do that.” —
According to this definition, I’m definitely not a “Cowboy”. I’ve been busy with selling some losers last few days, as I’ve got to bring down my cap.gains tax bill. 2018 was a very good year…

2. “Ignore the Vix. Noise.” —
Some of my sources state that at extremes (high or low), VIX is a very useful indicator (and good measure of fear vs complacency). The rest of the time yes, it’s not very useful and can be considered as ‘noise’.

3. “if you invest, stay invested. Ignore the merchants of fear. But if you harbour doubts, don’t even start. You’ll panic, sell into a storm and lose. Hence the difference between knowledge and wisdom.” —

Yup!

TCC

#51 TheBurper on 12.10.18 at 9:14 pm

@ #28 AK on 12.10.18 at 7:23 pm

“By chance I had an opportunity to chat with a Professor of Derivative Securities at one of our major Universities. Something he said that stayed with me was ‘Stay away from the stock market. Stay as far away as possible.’ ”
=====================================
This is very sad. This Prof is full of crap…

—————————————————

The Prof is well aware of the inner workings of the stock market and so his/her advice deserves some respect. The companies trading on the stock exchanges are vastly outnumbered by the private companies out there.

There are more private companies estimated to be worth over a Billion dollars in the USA, then there are public companies trading on the stock exchanges.

A lot of people would be better off investing in their own business instead of taking their $50K and stuffing it into other people’s businesses through the stock market. Even if your business is just grooming the neighborhood dogs or lap dancing for the neighborhood hockey moms. You will have more control over the fate of your investment and not just sitting there like a fool as you watch the market players just push prices up and down to maximize their profits but not yours.

#52 mike from mtl on 12.10.18 at 9:15 pm

#32 yvrguy on 12.10.18 at 7:44 pm
Garth and blog dogs, any thoughts on PSP ETF

//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Huhn never heard about this one before.

Quick chart, it’s pretty correlated with the 500 but in a bad way. YTD TR is -7.3 which is terrible compared to a straight 500 like VOO or IVV. It didn’t help at all with the recent sell off and fared much worse.

Would have to read the prospectus as PE typically have lots of restrictions and are.. well.. not publicly traded. So this must be some sort of synthetic product or something.

#53 Longterm on 12.10.18 at 9:38 pm

#34 Kelly on 12.10.18 at 7:45 pm

Transfer payments come from federal income tax and are distributed by the federal government to ensure roughly equal health and other services across provinces. They do not come ‘from Alberta’ nor from oil revenue, which is a common misunderstanding / fake fact one hears out of Alberta. Sure some of the payments comes from income tax off of oil workers – especially higher earners – and thus indirectly from oil but the same is true for every industry in Canada.

#54 Shawn Allen on 12.10.18 at 9:44 pm

Equalization Fake News

#34 Kelly on 12.10.18 at 7:45 pm said:

Quebec, armed with its fresh $13 billion transfer from the other Provinces, is rumoured to be looking for sound investments.

********************************

Equalization has been falsely represented and so the above misunderstanding is… well, understandable.
Equalization and all federal transfers come from federal taxes and revenue and zero dollars come from provincial taxes or royalties.

No province pays into equalization.

As a wise man in Alberta wrote in a letter to the editor. A high income earner in Quebec pays exactly the same federal tax as a high income earner in Alberta. Therefore both of these INDIVIDUALS contribute equally to equalization.

Low income people in Alberta that pay zero federal income tax do not contribute to equalization as individuals and certainly not as residents of Alberta.

And, by the way, there are also no federal royalties paid by oil companies.

The notion of the province of Alberta sending dollars to Quebec is popular and a nice image but completely false.

Alberta’s only valid complaint about equalization is that it is not on said Federal dole.

I say this as a 30 year resident of Alberta. Not a citizen of Alberta though, I have only one Citizenship. I am Canadian.

You have earned my respect. – Garth

#55 Longterm on 12.10.18 at 9:48 pm

#45 Oil North on 12.10.18 at 8:47 pm

Nothing is going to make ‘Canadian Oil’ a superpower. The bulk of it is low grade, high in sulfur and other impurities, with high refining costs and low return on energy invested and low return on dollars invested. Even with pipelines there’s scant evidence of a market for the stuff except at low prices to a limited number of refineries [mostly in the US] and the petcoke market in India has dried up due to bans on burning this awful material in power stations. Basically Canadian oil is scraping the bottom of the barrel and is priced accordingly, though if all of the subsidies were removed and negative externalities added on to the price, each barrel would probably be losing money and be better left in the ground.

#56 For those about to flop... on 12.10.18 at 9:50 pm

Recent sale report.

This house near the paradise on earth that is Knight street just sold.

The details…

Paid 2.28. February 2016

Originally asking 2.58

Just sold for 2.00

Assessment 2.15

So this house would have been roughly four years old when they bought it and most likely in excellent shape but 2.28 was way to high for the Knight street corridor of ven at that euphoric time.

I have some neighbors that paid close to 2.5 in a much nicer area and they won’t be putting out a for sale sign anytime soon unless they want to crystallize a 500k loss.

These guys lost 17% or close to 400k after expenses.

And now for the big finish with a pun about the street name.

Dumfries…

What to do, what to do?

Ah man, I’m getting soft,they just lost 400k so that’s enough of a pun)ishment…

M44BC

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/7215-dumfries-street

#57 Long-Time Lurker on 12.10.18 at 10:17 pm

Ok, (the other) Long Time Lurker, since you’re here I’ll give you some pointers:

1. Lose the man-bun and avocado toast. They’re not cool. Who do you think you’re fooling?

2. Your mom lied to you. Justin Bieber is NOT cool. Sorry. I know it’s hard to take.

Not cool:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kffacxfA7G4

3. Listen to Rock. Got that? Rock. No, not grunge. That’s what happens when you mom stops doing your laundry.

3a. Rock. Like this. See:

Cool!!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HlEuo9aR7Qo

Points:
-Get an electric guitar and learn what a riff is.
-Get tight pants and stay in shape.
-The top hat and bandanna DO NOT go together.
-Cancel a concert and start a riot.

4. The truth be told, the beard only works if you’re Garth or have a spinning guitar like this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eUDcTLaWJuo

Millenials.

#58 Long-Time Lurker on 12.10.18 at 10:19 pm

Millennials.

#59 Doug in London on 12.10.18 at 10:29 pm

I see a lot here about staying out of stocks because they might drop in value. Has it ever occurred to anyone that a lot of stocks and ETFs have already dropped in value and thus are on sale now?

#60 saskatoon on 12.10.18 at 10:32 pm

#54 Shawn Allen

this is a logical fallacy.

it isn’t about the equality of the initial contribution; it is about the subsequent inequitable redistribution.

#61 AB Boxster on 12.10.18 at 10:55 pm

#54 Shawn Allen on 12.10.18 at 9:44 pm

Equalization Fake News
—————————–
Well that certainly is one way to present equalization as a great nation building exercise.

You are correct that no one province pays into equalization and equalization dollars do not come from the provincial treasury.

But the high federal tax dollars collected that come from Alberta, is because Alberta has (or once had) a thriving energy industry with high paying wages, hence high taxes.

And, yes, money does not go into equalization, it goes into the big pot called the federal treasury. And then they dole it out based on some bizarre computation that always benefits Quebec massively.

So, sure, Alberta does not directly send money to Quebec. It sends it to Ottawa, who then forwards it on to their favorite regions. Wow. Big difference.

When Quebec is running a surplus this year, and Alberta is running an 8 billion dollar deficit, Quebec gets 13 billion from the pot more than it puts in.

While Alberta and Newfoundland have a higher unemployment rates than Quebec, and their economies are suffering due to pipeline issues, yet Quebec refuses pipelines through their province.

Happy to receive equalization money though that comes from the taxes and wealth generated for these two provinces and their ‘dirty oil’.


Alberta’s only valid complaint about equalization is that it is not on said Federal dole.

Really?
So that is what you see as a successful country, where all provinces are on the dole?

If you were a real Albertan you would know that Alberta does not want to be on any dole.

They want to keep the money that the earn in their own province, rather the send it to Quebec (via Ottawa) so that Quebec can give free university education and daycare to all.

Or perhaps you feel that the idea of the federal government collecting money, so that they can then return it back to its vassal states, is a excellent way to run a country?

When in fact it is just a way for Liberal governments to buy votes in the east, and screw the regions with the actual ingenuity and hard work generate real wealth.

I doubt that you are a real resident of Alberta.
Albertan’s know when something looks like sh!t, and smells like sh!t.

We don’t need to feel it and taste it to know that it is actually sh!t.

And for Alberta, equalization, is definitely sh!t.

#62 Bottoms_Up on 12.10.18 at 11:12 pm

Its a great time to enter the stock market in a balanced manner. It has sold off a bit, largely on fear rather than fact. Be greedy when others are fearful.

#63 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.10.18 at 11:17 pm

#109 Drill Baby Drill on 12.09.18 at 8:39 pm
The Chinese love to gamble. Anyone who has spent time with them will tell you this. They play the long game which North Americans do not understand. If you want to win a game then this is the perfect opponent to have. Check Mate Canada.
——————-
Amen.
Chinese are a patient people.

#64 islander on 12.10.18 at 11:23 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/true-north/2017/oct/26/revealed-oil-giants-pay-billions-less-tax-in-canada-than-abroad

Thank you #54 Shawn Allen

Sobering thoughts

#65 For those about to flop... on 12.10.18 at 11:25 pm

Recent sale report.

These guys just decided to bite the bullet.

The details…

3525 Hull st,Vancouver.

Paid 1.49 January 2016

Originally asking 1.29

Just sold for 1.39

Assessment 1.44

So it appears they priced it for a bidding war and could only get someone up half of what they needed, less expenses.

When the dust settles they would have lost at least 12% or a 175k bash to the brain with a bit of burnt toast…

M44BC

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/3525-hull-street

#66 SoggyShorts on 12.10.18 at 11:26 pm

#40 Terry on 12.10.18 at 8:11 pm

“The money I’m using is every penny I have in the world”

Wow…..seriously??? If this guy is wanting to invest with money he cannot afford to lose……….then why is he even investing in the first place? You should only invest money that you can afford to lose so that if it does happen your lifestyle will not be affected.
******************************
I kinda disagree. I mean of my net worth over 95% is invested. I certainly would be crushed if I lost it, but that’s not really possible. I mean if a diversified global portfolio goes to zero it’s because of nuclear winter and it doesn’t really matter then, does it?

I don’t see a compelling argument for having any significant amount of your worth not invested.

Isn’t the whole idea of investing to have your money work for you? So how much unemployment do you want? 10%? 20%? If your NW is significant, even 5% is too much. A month or 2 of expenses and an untapped LOC is all you need.

Another way to look at it is that every dollar not invested is actually an investment in CAD. How often has the CAD outperformed the S&P? Not a great bet IMO.

#67 Leo Trollstoy on 12.10.18 at 11:46 pm

#20 Graeme on 12.10.18 at 6:41 pm
Buy stock when the markets appear to hit bottom, not before. They have a long way to go. And historically they can go down and stay down a veryong time..decades. It’s happened in my lifetime. This isn’t market timing. It’s what is referred to as a no brainer.

I found the poor person!

#68 Leo Trollstoy on 12.10.18 at 11:46 pm

<b#10 The Real Mark on 12.10.18 at 6:09 pm
Yet another data point that late 2010 was the peak of the Calgary RE market, and there’s been stagnation ever since.

I found another poor person!

#69 Smith X on 12.11.18 at 12:20 am

@ For those about to flop..

It’s not that easy to save 400k, even if they had a property beforehand. I’m assuming these people losing 400k are losing a large portion of their net worth.

#70 Slip slider on 12.11.18 at 12:29 am

No matter what sort of noise takes over as “financial news” , Fortis, Bns, T, etcetcetc will continue to pay dividends because you pay your bills. The current tempest in a tea pot is the Huawei thing. The Meng woman is one of tens of thousands of wanted criminals that China wants . In fact China says 60% of it’s most wanted criminals live in Canada.

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/protester-says-canada-doing-u-s-dirty-work-outside-huawei-execs-bail-hearing

#71 Vampire studies on 12.11.18 at 12:34 am

51 Burper – why not do both?

#72 No Chance on 12.11.18 at 12:38 am

#45 Oil North on 12.10.18 at 8:47 pm

Nothing is going to make ‘Canadian Oil’ a superpower. The bulk of it is low grade, high in sulfur and other impurities, with high refining costs and low return on energy invested and low return on dollars invested. Even with pipelines there’s scant evidence of a market for the stuff except at low prices to a limited number of refineries [mostly in the US] and the petcoke market in India has dried up due to bans on burning this awful material in power stations. Basically Canadian oil is scraping the bottom of the barrel and is priced accordingly, though if all of the subsidies were removed and negative externalities added on to the price, each barrel would probably be losing money and be better left in the ground.

#73 Smoking Man on 12.11.18 at 2:20 am

DELETED

#74 Mr Wang on 12.11.18 at 2:24 am

DELETED

#75 jon snow on 12.11.18 at 3:33 am

OECD warns Australia to prepare contingency plans for a ‘severe collapse’ in the housing market

Australia is warned to prepare “contingency plans for a severe collapse in the housing market” that could lead to a “crisis situation” in our banks.

https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/oecd-warns-australia-to-prepare-contingency-plans-for-a-severe-collapse-in-the-housing-market/news-story/19d35f6461b01ae456162a3208277c50

#76 Dolce Vita on 12.11.18 at 3:36 am

Sorry Garth,

#54 Shawn Allen,

As I admire both your Adeste Fideles, Captain Canuck, Nessun Dorma view on Nationhood and that which binds us (and by in large what you both have to say) a BRIEF HISTORY LESSON and a 4.8/5 “Good Read” would benefit the 2 of yours’ thinking as in seeking out the OTHER side of the story that actually features facts supported by data rather than off the wall vanilla fervor:

“The trouble with Canada” by Bill Gairdner.

Required reading for all AB Millenials and GenX that weren’t even a Glimmer in their Daddy’s Eye as of yet (queue Windfall Profits Tax, NEP, Western Alienation, etc.).

Explains why there was such a thing that existed as the “Western Canada Concept Party” and that gained much traction in the early 80’s (and eventually got rolled into the Reform Party – a card carrying member here and back then).

Albertan’s are not a wanton lot and for them (and myself at the time) to resort to PQ style separative politics requires some egregious doing by the Feds.

PQ always the vote darling, enfant terrible of Fed political parties and it requires feeding for its favor (they talk with their hands on their heart but vote with their hands on their pocketbook…smart I say).

Read the above and inform yourselves first, then Comment.

There are typically, 2 sides to a story, lest you have a narrative and enjoy languishing in: bury head in sand AND see no evil, hear no…

#77 Dump and Run on 12.11.18 at 4:17 am

Huawei Spy Network (alleged) days the first thing they’ll dump as surety is “equity” in the two houses Meng owns, claiming they’re worth seven million each, yeah right, knife fall, stupid.

http://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/china-pressures-canada-u-s-ahead-of-huawei-hearing-1.1180891

It’s been well discussed on this blog that Chinese citizens have zero connection to Vancouver and are dumping, in this case to pull the wool over a judges eyes.

She’s supposed let a billionaire, why doesn’t she put up something like ‘a billion dollars’? Not just a rapidly failing asset like a Vancouver speculation?

#78 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.11.18 at 5:22 am

@#49 Shawn Allen
“The notion of the province of Alberta sending dollars to Quebec is popular and a nice image but completely false.”
++++++

My my your simplistic assessment( personal income tax) of the equalization program conveniently neglects several other taxation revenues the Feds use to “equalize” payments.

Personal income tax
Business income tax
Consumption tax
50% of Natural Resource revenue
Property tax

Hence the decades long complaint that Quebec has always received more than it has paid in

I guess all those years ( every year of the program)of Quebec receiving billions of dollars in “equalization” payments from the feds is propaganda?……
Someone should tell Quebec they deserve more……

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equalization_payments_in_Canada

The last 4 paragraphs of the wikipedia article are most revealing.

#79 Gotta Love Trump on 12.11.18 at 6:20 am

This means War!!?

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/11/us-has-a-concerted-strategy-to-push-allies-to-reject-huawei-eurasia.html

Wars in the past we’re fought over trade routes, resources, markets and women, This 5G War is being fought over the ownership of 21st century technology commanding ownership of all future communication and signal technology.

China has discredited itself after decades of bellicose chest thumping and slip-fisted sleaze. Trump is our new George Patton, fighting for Western Civilization .

Huawei is a Communist Party Trojan Horse. Trump stands up, ahead of the weak dummies like Trudeau and Obama .

#80 Headhunter on 12.11.18 at 7:10 am

Stay invested is good advice!

Don’t sweat the Huawei stuff. Just high end chess. If you want to talk about spying just look to facebook Google et al. Everything we do is recorded, key strokes counted has been this way for years… Sorry.

Same with trading stocks its called “frontrunning”

Why play a game you have no chance of winning? (bank of mom has been played out)
I’m sticking with my 50% housing correction in the GTA and surrounding areas. Housing will revert back to the mean 3-4X income

The next generation has done a cost/benefit analysis. Juice aint worth the squeeze, not going to own shit so “why bother” may as well enjoy and be happy.

Good luck selling those 4 bedroom McMansions to people that have no kids, no cars and cant drive.

#81 the Jaguar on 12.11.18 at 7:50 am

“You know, I don’t even turn on GPS,” Chen said onstage at the Toronto Global Forum Monday morning, in conversation with business journalist Amanda Lang.

“I’m amazed how each and every one of us are willing to give up what’s most valuable that we have, which is our data, in exchange for convenience.”
John Chen, CEO Blackberry

I just love this guy.

#82 dharma bum on 12.11.18 at 8:27 am

#18 Graeme

“And historically they can go down and stay down a very long time..decades. It’s happened in my lifetime.”

Um, what decades? – Garth
——————————————————————–

1929-1949

This is Graeme:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7oaQGw2W8IU

Now we all know!

#83 gfd on 12.11.18 at 8:55 am

#31 no kidding. Everyone wants to live in Yukon, especially winter time. (sarc)

#84 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.11.18 at 8:56 am

Well, well well.
China’s finally found a “Canadian of convenience” to grab in retaliation for Ms Meng

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-icg/former-canadian-diplomat-detained-in-china-sources-idUSKBN1OA1EB

I’m amazed it took them this long.

On a side note.
Anyone notice the “rent a protesters” on tv last night complaining outside the Vancouver Court House during the latest Bail hearing?
Clamouring for “justice” on the 6pm News?
Perhaps Canada should hold her until China releases the 1 million Uighers held in re-education camps …………that would be justice.

#85 Remembrancer on 12.11.18 at 8:59 am

#78 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.11.18 at 5:22 am

You left out aerospace and shipbuilding subsidies and contracts too…

#86 Congrats Shawn on 12.11.18 at 9:03 am

#54 Shawn Allen on 12.10.18 at 9:44 pm
Equalization Fake News

(…)

You have earned my respect. – Garth

Congrats on earning a gold star Shawn – they are really tough to get!

#87 IHCTD9 on 12.11.18 at 9:07 am

Invest, stay invested – good chance all will be fine.

If not, that likely means SHTF has happened.

So while you invest, make sure you also build an underground bunker and fill it with food, guns, and ammunition. The more ordinance, the better. There are many online survivalists ready to sell you everything you need to survive a grid-down apocalypse with minimal discomfort.

#88 HAM R Us on 12.11.18 at 9:22 am

The Art of War, RE: the arrest of Huawei CFO Meng
Wanzhou

To paraphrase the Art of War (Sun Tzu, 500 BC): know your enemy, know yourself, victory will always be yours.

Let me ask readers here, which country has the biggest number of English language learning population?

You probably answer right away, USA. Someone who has a little more expanded world view will probably name another country that used to be a British colony.

The correct answer is China. Nowadays the Chinese have their English lesson right from cradles all the way to university and to their adult life.

Let me then ask readers another question: how many of you know which is Meng Wanzhou’s last name? Do you know the meaning of Wanzhou (晚舟)?

Now you realize, they know you, and you do not know them.

For all the bravado, ultimatum, deadline issued by President Trump and his team, please read the below article. Then let me hear your reflection.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/the-u-s-has-huawei-in-cuffs-china-has-the-u-s-in-chains-1.1180657

#89 eTA on 12.11.18 at 9:51 am

#77 Dump and Run – This is more complex than meets the eye. On August 22, 2018 a Federal US judge issued an arrest warrant for this Chinese lady which she was aware of. In order for her to fly into Canada via Vancouver she needed a eTA. This should have been in Canada’s data bank or they knew she was coming, but
it should have been refused. The other question to ponder is she should have known. Anyone leaving Hong Kong on their passport flying to Canada needs clearance with a eTA in order to board the plane.

#90 Canadian Arrested on 12.11.18 at 10:01 am

Michael Kovrig a former Canadian Diplomat working in China has just been arrested there.

#91 gfd on 12.11.18 at 10:05 am

The count of cranes per city used as a proxy for real estate mania (August 2018):
97 – Toronto
65 – Seattle
40 – Chicago
36 – Los Angeles
30 – Portland, Ore
28 – Denver

#92 David Paquette on 12.11.18 at 10:28 am

I perceive a few Canadian Equity shares that are undervalued and I have placed a few sh*t bids in the hope of catching a panic sell. It is a standard tactic of mine when times are tough. It is the only time I can front run algo’s. My guess is that I will be doing this for a few months to minimize overpaying.

The Meng/Huawei saga strikes me as contrived. I expect her to get bail and detainment. In my opinion, this is just a scripted show by the Americans using Canadians as custodians because she will be merely inconvenienced – nice digs by the way. I am convinced she will never be sent south of the border so let the show continue. I expect she will be on her way to China within a few months after being shaken down for dollars/promises.

#93 Mattl on 12.11.18 at 10:43 am

#69 Smith X on 12.11.18 at 12:20 am
@ For those about to flop..

It’s not that easy to save 400k, even if they had a property beforehand. I’m assuming these people losing 400k are losing a large portion of their net worth.

——————————————————–

I actually assume the opposite when I see these big losses. The assumption I make is that they are ether investors that have made a ton of money on the 15 year run up. Or in the case of some of the very high end properties in the West end and Richmond, cleaning money.

Most Canadians that have a large portion of their net worth in a house will buckle down and make the payments rather then sell for a loss. Thats why prices have been so sticky on the way down, no one seems willing to give, because in a lot of cases everything they have is in the home. They will sell all the toys and stop spending before losing their home and taking a massive loss.

#94 n1tro on 12.11.18 at 10:59 am

#81 the Jaguar on 12.11.18 at 7:50 am
“You know, I don’t even turn on GPS,” Chen said onstage at the Toronto Global Forum Monday morning, in conversation with business journalist Amanda Lang.

“I’m amazed how each and every one of us are willing to give up what’s most valuable that we have, which is our data, in exchange for convenience.”
John Chen, CEO Blackberry

I just love this guy.
———————————–
Johnny boy…you should know that you don’t need to turn on the GPS for them to know where you are. As for for an individual’s data being “worth” the most, that’s also laughable. The presumption for that insight is that an individual is so special that their behavior pattern is going to give the data collector some divine insight when really it is the aggregation of the group’s data that is valuable. So opt out all you want and pull out the paper map driving to you meeting Mr. Chen, the rest of use can just make a spoof account side by side on the same phone and enjoy our turn by turn directions.

#95 Guy in Calgary on 12.11.18 at 11:10 am

#24 espressobob on 12.10.18 at 7:04 pm
#2 Guy in Calgary

I’ll be sure to include a /s to indicate sarcasm even though I thought it was obvious :/

#96 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.11.18 at 11:16 am

@# lucky 88 Ham on Rye

No one cares what Meng’s name means.
And the reason there are more English speaking people in China is due to the fact that the language of money is English.
We won :)

At least appreciate the irony of being able to have this English language discussion in a democracy.

Speaking of freedom.
Next time your in China try and Google “Winnie The Poo”

Banned
Why?
Because it’s the nickname millions have given their exalted “Leader for Life” Xi and the communist party does not approve such insubordination.

https://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwiCvcGtlpjfAhVDIjQIHfQXCtUQFjAAegQICRAB&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fworld%2F2018%2Faug%2F07%2Fchina-bans-winnie-the-pooh-film-to-stop-comparisons-to-president-xi&usg=AOvVaw2m5_khyRDjyu1904uvElZY

#97 Remembrancer on 12.11.18 at 11:19 am

#88 HAM R Us on 12.11.18 at 9:22 am
The Art of War, RE: the arrest of Huawei CFO Meng
Wanzhou
———————————————————-
We can all play this game…

The art of war teaches us to rely not on the likelihood of the enemy’s not coming, but on our own readiness to receive him; not on the chance of his not attacking, but rather on the fact that we have made our position unassailable.

One Belt, One Road suggests expansion is an imperative – upsetting the world’s economic apple cart is in no one’s interests. It is encouraging that English is a widely studied subject, I advocate Mandarin as a 2nd language as well…

#98 whiplash on 12.11.18 at 11:27 am

#79 Gotta Love Trump
Huawei is a Communist Party Trojan Horse. Trump stands up, ahead of the weak dummies like Trudeau and Obama.

A year ago president Trump signed into law a bill banning software from the Russian company Kaspersky from being used within the US government. This follows a directive four months earlier that civilian agencies would have 90 days to remove software produced by this company as well.
China has banned not only Kaspersky but US based Symantec antivirus products, basically a national security chess game of who do you trust or don’t!

#99 jess on 12.11.18 at 12:11 pm

money laundering through ice cream parlors omg!

from the occrp:
“In 2017, Germany introduced a transparency register that requires nested corporate structures to disclose their true beneficiaries. This information is accessible to notaries and real estate agents, who are obligated by money laundering laws to assess their clients for potential illegality and report suspicions.

However, Transparency asserts that the register has been underutilized and ineffective. Of the 60,000 questionable transactions brought to the attention of authorities in 2017, only 20 came from real estate agents.

Additionally, organized criminal networks, particularly the Italian Mafia, exploit legal loopholes in existing regulation to obscure the true beneficiaries of real estate transactions.

Nicola Gratteri, the chief prosecutor of the Italian province of Calabria, said in the report that “the mafia is laundering enormous sums of cocaine trade money in Germany.”

Up to 30 percent of criminal proceeds are invested in buying, selling, renovating, or renting properties in Germany, and these illicit dealings are often run through frontmen who do not appear in legal databases.

#100 Remembrancer on 12.11.18 at 12:12 pm

#92 David Paquette on 12.11.18 at 10:28 am
The Meng/Huawei saga strikes me as contrived. I expect her to get bail and detainment. In my opinion, this is just a scripted show by the Americans using Canadians as custodians because she will be merely inconvenienced – nice digs by the way. I am convinced she will never be sent south of the border so let the show continue. I expect she will be on her way to China within a few months after being shaken down for dollars/promises.
————————————————————
Next layer down is Canada in trying to work the middle between US and China / Huawei game of thrones now being put into a position to have to chose a side…

By shaken down for dollars/promises I assume you mean fined and slapped w/ a consent decree?

#101 When Will They Raise Rates? on 12.11.18 at 12:28 pm

#90 Canadian Arrested on 12.11.18 at 10:01 am

Michael Kovrig a former Canadian Diplomat working in China has just been arrested there.
—————————————

He’s most likely a Canadian spook… If they prosecute him to the full extent of the law, it means the death penalty. It will be interesting to see how this affects the bail hearing. I think she’ll now get bail, despite the fact that if there ever was a flight risk, this is it. lol Judge probably gets a call informing him that her release is now a matter of national security.

There are several twitter accounts reporting live play by play from inside the courtroom, here’s one of them:

https://twitter.com/MelanieNagyCTV

#102 David Paquette on 12.11.18 at 12:38 pm

#86 Congrats Shawn on 12.11.18 at 9:03 am

#54 Shawn Allen on 12.10.18 at 9:44 pm
Equalization Fake News
(…)
You have earned my respect. – Garth
Congrats on earning a gold star Shawn – they are really tough to get!

One of my favourite writers was Allan Fotheringham. I keep his book “Birds of a Feather” in my library.
Nuff said.

#103 JB on 12.11.18 at 12:40 pm

#90 Canadian Arrested on 12.11.18 at 10:01 am

Michael Kovrig a former Canadian Diplomat working in China has just been arrested there.
……………………………………………………………………
Its is natural for the narrow minded leaders in China to do exactly this. The Asians feel insulted and humiliated by Canada acting on behalf of the Gutless Americans who did not immediately extradite Meng Wanzhou to the USA. We have done the dirty work and the Americans as usual have plausible denial. We are stuck in the middle of their problem holding the bag. Grow some balls America and take her off our hands for whatever reasons you can come up with. Then the Chinese can deal with you directly.

https://qz.com/1491292/china-detained-a-former-canadian-diplomat-michael-kovrig/

#104 Another Deckchair on 12.11.18 at 12:53 pm

@94 n1tro

“the rest of use can just make a spoof account side by side on the same phone and enjoy our turn by turn directions.”

Just FYI: your “solution” doesn’t change the IMEI number, nor the IMSI number, used to track mobile.

#105 China Has A Book on 12.11.18 at 1:01 pm

China is an ancient society of many centuries. I have seen and read this detailed book detailing the makings of war with various strategies of losing or winning a battle in any war. They use these ancient writings today in order to size up the potential enemy with their weaknesses in order to win politically or in a military battle.

#106 Crazed and a little confused on 12.11.18 at 2:05 pm

HI guys,
I feel I should say something. Investing is a scarey game. I had 6 commodity stocks sold 3 at near peak and kept 3. 2 are down 75% and the other down 52%.
But also I have 3 stocks that gained 300% McDonald and Pfizer and apple. I have bought and traded them a few times to get that return. But let’s face it . These are no Brainers for such strong blue chips nd yes I bought during 2010_ 2015 period.

I have also bought bond etfs, reits and insuranice stock . I have bought and traded them a few times to. Now day trading. But it could be months. Timing the market is difficult…not impossible. But it more like Reba lancing.

#107 espressobob on 12.11.18 at 2:14 pm

#95 Guy in Calgary

My mistake, and apologies. Sarcasm is an art so I’m told. Still working on that.

#108 Crazed and a little confused on 12.11.18 at 2:22 pm

HI guys,
I feel I should say something. Investing is a scarey game. I had 6 commodity stocks sold 3 at near peak and kept 3. 2 are down 75% and the other down 52%.
But also I have 3 stocks that gained 300% McDonald and Pfizer and apple. I have bought and traded them a few times to get that return. But let’s face it . These are no Brainers for such strong blue chips nd yes I bought during 2010_ 2015 period.

I have also bought bond etfs, reits and insuranice stock . I have bought and traded them a few times to. Not day trading. But it could be months. Timing the market is difficult…not impossible. But it more like Rebalancing . Not perfect I sold merck when it was $70/ all time at the time. Bought heinz/ kraft.$55. 3 year low. But I lost 10%.. better dividend yield long term

So I’m created my own balanced portfoliob with 50% stocks. I’m 47. . The dividend and cash distribution cover all of my rent. Especially since Im a major holder of US stocks in US dollars. I did the math. I get about $700 / month and $2800 / 3 months CANADA $

I sold 3 of my mutual funds because 2 were peak and one underperforming …only 59 dollars in 10 years…sad. free up some cash for continue correct ion. One thing people overlook is cash flow. I don’t need to sell because my cash flow covers my cost of living. Just barely but yes and I get all those tax breaks from tfsa and rrsp

#109 Ace Goodheart on 12.11.18 at 2:25 pm

OMG can people please stop selling their stocks. This is getting stupid. I get it you’re all nervous. But really dumping good companies for ridiculous values is not going to fix anything.

And what is everyone doing? Rushing into Canadian dollars? Yeah that’s an amazing choice. No chance of any currency risk there, with oil prices collapsing and there still being a lot of wind left in the Federal Liberal sails.

Yeah I like buying stuff at a discount but this is getting stupid. It’s just a downturn. Look at any graph of historical stock market value fluctuations or index graph. You get peaks and troughs. We are going into a trough. Big deal. There will be another peak.

#110 Ace Goodheart on 12.11.18 at 2:35 pm

RE: #92 David Paquette on 12.11.18 at 10:28 am

” I perceive a few Canadian Equity shares that are undervalued and I have placed a few sh*t bids in the hope of catching a panic sell. It is a standard tactic of mine when times are tough. It is the only time I can front run algo’s. My guess is that I will be doing this for a few months to minimize overpaying.”

This is a “weirdo” economic downturn and index trough that we are going into right now, only because it is externally driven, which is not usual for such events.

Usually there is something wrong with the valuations and it comes to light, causing a cascading failure of sorts, such as the dot com bubble bursting or the sub prime mortgage collapse of 2008. In those cases, securities were improperly valued, the problems came to light and catastrophic re-valuation occurred. Similar issue happened recently with crypto currencies when everyone realized they are worthless.

This market downturn is odd. It is driven by interest rate increases which have forced people to sell their equities so they can keep up with their debt payments, and it is kept moving by the weird forces of populism which are causing politicians to erect trade walls and barriers around perfectly sound economies for what appear to be folklore based reasons.

Underneath it all you have solid, well run companies being sold at major discounts, for absolutely no reason. Earnings are up, dividends are being increased, everyone is making lots of money, so let’s dump all our stock holdings, and put up trade barriers, and lets all fight with each other.

Why is the USA angry at China? Because Huewai allegedly tried to sell telecom stuff to Iran? Why did the USA sanction Iran? Because “The Donald” decided that Iran should be sanctioned. So you have a fight over nothing, for no reason, just because.

It’s all like that. The most make believe economic crisis that never existed.

#111 IHCTD9 on 12.11.18 at 2:52 pm

#88 HAM R Us on 12.11.18 at 9:22 am

Now you realize, they know you, and you do not know them.
____________

I’m not sure they know a whole lot about me, and I’m not really planning on learning much about them.

What I do know about them is that China has one aircraft carrier.

One.

And it is essentially a reverse engineered 80’s soviet carrier. It is steam powered by way of oil fired boilers (lol).

This compares to the USA’s 10 modern Nuclear powered Carriers, several of which are cutting edge, including the most advanced, most powerful, and largest Carriers ever built.

US Sea Power eclipses that of China by at least 100 X.

That’s about all I know, other than English skills don’t do much to stop incoming cruise missiles, F-22’s or F-35’s.

#112 mogulrider on 12.11.18 at 3:24 pm

DELETED

#113 n1tro on 12.11.18 at 3:27 pm

#104 Another Deckchair on 12.11.18 at 12:53 pm
@94 n1tro

“the rest of use can just make a spoof account side by side on the same phone and enjoy our turn by turn directions.”

Just FYI: your “solution” doesn’t change the IMEI number, nor the IMSI number, used to track mobile.
——————————-
My solution isn’t meant to spoof the IMEI. Like I said, unless you turn off your phone, “they” will always know where you are. Spoofed accounts/apps is more to throw off the google tracking of all the freaky deeky websites you hit so Google can sell your “profile” to Ashley Madison.

My main point is John Chen is just spouting out a flavor of the month topic with some nonsensical tin foil conjecture added.

#114 LP on 12.11.18 at 3:40 pm

#103 JB on 12.11.18 at 12:40 pm
……………………………………………………………………
Its is natural for the narrow minded leaders in China to do exactly this. The Asians feel insulted and humiliated by Canada acting on behalf of the Gutless Americans who did not immediately extradite Meng Wanzhou to the USA. We have done the dirty work and the Americans as usual have plausible denial. We are stuck in the middle of their problem holding the bag. Grow some balls America and take her off our hands for whatever reasons you can come up with. Then the Chinese can deal with you directly.
………………………………………………..

Full disclosure: I don’t know how these things work. But my instinct would be to contact the Chinese embassy in Vancouver to tell them that at such and such a specific time Ms. Meng will be driven to the border crossing at Port Roberts where she will be helped out of the car at the Customs Plaza. We will drive away without her.

I know…far too simplistic.

#115 Quality Weapons on 12.11.18 at 4:06 pm

#111 IHCTD9 – The Chinese are not worried about US carriers or battleships. China develops deadly weapons like the DF-21D or CM-401 that are the fastest anti-ship missiles in the world. The entire US fleet would be sent down within minutes visiting the fish. Quality versus quantity wins in the end.

#116 n1tro on 12.11.18 at 4:35 pm

#111 IHCTD9 on 12.11.18 at 2:52 pm
#88 HAM R Us on 12.11.18 at 9:22 am

All I know is I don’t think the next world war will require boats regardless of how advanced they are.

#117 Ray on 12.11.18 at 4:38 pm

#88 HAM R Us on 12.11.18 at 9:22 am
——
You make a good point on the vulnerability of US supply chains dependent on China. More elemental to manufacturing component supply chains is the issue of Rare Earths supply. All electronics requires Rare Earths to function, no substitutions, its quantum mechanics, not chemistry. China supplies 90% plus of all of the worlds Rare Earths. They are nasty to mine and refine, almost always have a radio active residue. So far ,I believe ,China has not threatened export quotas because it is their strategic “ace in the hole”.

#118 NoName on 12.11.18 at 4:39 pm

@ihctd9

What that dude is hintig is that otner guys are reasy for asimetrical confrontation. Remember cold war who knows how many spy eastern block exported to west thru imigrant visa…

But if i am thinking this smarter people than me thought of it long time ago…

If you treat you own people bad thats bad lomg term. Lao Tzu

#119 Remembrancer on 12.11.18 at 6:03 pm

#105 China Has A Book on 12.11.18 at 1:01 pm
re: The book…
————————————————————
Ya, but you forgot to mention that everyone has access to it and its on the reading list of any self respecting war college on the planet along with classics like the Battle of Thermopylae…

To heavily summarize: show up with more guys at the top of the hill…

#120 The Duck on 12.11.18 at 7:45 pm

#119 Remembrancer – The Russians have even better weapons. Do you remember what happened to the Donald Cook destroyer 2 years ago? All weapon systems were shut down while the Russian jets practiced their bombing raids 100 feet away endlessly. The modern weapon US warship was renamed Donald Duck by the Russians.

#121 Underachieving Calgary Gen X on 12.11.18 at 9:29 pm

I’m 47, have never owned property, and am in a $1150 a month condo rental in a neighborhood I enjoy in downtown Calgary.

Earning $105,000 a year, government job, defined benefits pension plan. Plan to work until I’m 70. Wife doesn’t work, no kids. $250,000 inheritance coming.

Thinking I might just skip buying altogether and follow Garth’s plan.

Was a lifelong Dipper moister until I discovered this blog. Was about to buy a year ago. Garth dissuaded me, thank god.

What say all of you? Any reason I should buy at this stage in the game?