The decline of manufacturing

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RYAN By Guest Blogger Ryan Lewenza

In my last blog post I mentioned how I was looking forward to the holidays as I needed some festive cheer following the recent stock market rout. Well, there’s more than 2,500 families in Oshawa (and thousands more in the Canadian energy patch) that are going to have a pretty crappy holidays after hearing the terrible news that General Motors is going to shut down its Oshawa plant as part of a global restructuring (interesting that they call it a “global restructuring” when just US and Canadian plants are being closed!). Timing, as they say, is a bitch!

Having grown up in Windsor ON, the automotive capital of Canada, I’ve seen this story many times before with the US car companies scaling back operations and moving production and jobs to Mexico where the labour costs are a fraction of the costs here. Fortunately, President Trump is trying to address this in the new NAFTA agreement requiring that 40-45% of car parts be made by workers earning US$16/hr, which will help to narrow the wage gap between North American and Mexican autoworkers. This is a great step in the right direction for our workers but unfortunately comes a little too late for Oshawa. In fact, our manufacturing sector, and our government policies (or lack thereof) supporting the sector, has been one step behind for years now.

The manufacturing sector in Canada has been in a steady decline for years, if not decades. As seen below, manufacturing jobs have declined from roughly 2 million (peak of 2.3 million in the early 2000s) in the 1970s to just 1.7 million today, with most of these job losses being concentrated in Ontario. But as a percentage of our population, the declines in manufacturing jobs are even more glaring with manufacturing jobs declining from 8% in the 1970s to just 4.7% today. What caused this dramatic change in our Canadian manufacturing the sector?

Canadian Manufacturing Jobs

Source: Stats Can, Turner Investments

It’s never one thing that causes these dramatic shifts in an economy or sector. I see a number of factors all coming together for this perfect storm in the manufacturing sector. They include:

1. Productivity gains and automation: Without a doubt, productivity gains, through things like computers, supply chain management, robotics and automation, have had a transformative impact on the auto and manufacturing sector. For example, according to the International Federation of Robotics, the US car industry had 127,000 industrial robots installed in 2016, up 70% from 2006. Over this period, US jobs in the car industry declined from 1.1 million to 960,000 today. Productivity gains benefit an economy by increasing output per worker, however, it can be disruptive and lead to job losses. My mother works as a cashier at Zehrs and her job is under pressure from the self-checkout machines, which is why I never use these when buying my groceries!

2. Globalization and offshoring: Globalization, which the IMF defines as “the growing economic interdependence of countries worldwide through increasing volume and variety of cross-border transactions in goods and services, free international capital flows, and more rapid and widespread diffusion of technology”, has had a profound impact on the global economy and manufacturing sector. Add in NAFTA and these factors have greatly contributed to the major offshoring of auto and manufacturing jobs in Canada. Jeff Rubin, the ex-CIBC Chief Economist, wrote a great report on this topic and found that Canada has seen a decline of 45,000 jobs in the auto sector since 2000 with many of these jobs going to Mexico. Below is an interesting chart from the report and it clearly shows Mexican auto job gains have been at the expense of Canadian auto jobs losses. Jeff noted in the report that as of 2008, Canada and Mexico had roughly the same number of auto sector jobs between the two countries, but since then Mexican auto jobs have more than quadrupled to almost 900,000 jobs, versus Canada at 171,000 jobs. This is why I commend President Trump for demanding Mexico auto plants pay their workers a higher wage in the latest NAFTA negotiations.

3. Transformation to a service-based economy: Another major factor for the decline in manufacturing is the ongoing shift in North America to a more service-based economy. Canadian service-industry jobs have increased from 10 million to 14.5 million over the last 20 years. As a percentage of our population this equates to an increase of 34% to 40% today. This includes areas like finance, real estate, education, etc. Our consumption patterns are changing, which is in part driving these dramatic changes in our labour force.

Auto Sector Jobs for Canada and Mexico

Source: Stats Canada, Center of International Governance Innovation

The world is changing rapidly, which is having demonstrative effects on our economy and labour force. These changes in part explain why GM decided to shut down its Oshawa plant this month. So what are we to do to combat these changes? First, our government needs to support and foster growth in the manufacturing sector by making Canada more competitive and attractive to manufacturers. This includes things like offering tax incentives, allowing for faster capital investment depreciation expensing, and cutting red tape. For example, the OECD recently published a report highlighting that Canada ranks second last of 35 countries in the average time required for regulatory approval for construction projects. Our government should be all over this and look for ways to streamline regulatory approvals to reduce this lead time.

Second, we need to focus on skills retraining programs and ensure our kids and young adults are concentrating in the areas of high job growth in Canada. Below is a list of the top 15 careers in demand in Canada. It includes areas of skill trades, health care, technology, education, finance and engineering. To all the GM workers (and the young kids heading off to university) take a long, hard look at this list and determine what peaks your interest, since unfortunately we’re likely to see a continued decline in the manufacturing sector given these tectonic changes in the global economy.

Top 15 Careers Most in Demand

Source: Trade School, Turner Investments
Ryan Lewenza, CFA, CMT is a Partner and Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments, and a Senior Vice President, Private Client Group, of Raymond James Ltd.

 

145 comments ↓

#1 Sam604 on 12.08.18 at 3:40 pm

Wait… pharmacists make 47 an hour?!!?

#2 Joe on 12.08.18 at 3:41 pm

you can insert the Construction Industry on the list

#3 Shawn Allen on 12.08.18 at 3:41 pm

So Adam Smith was wrong that a country should buy from other countries when those other countries can offer a cheaper price, lower cost of production?

Canada should attempt to buy jobs by offering incentives and lower income taxes?

How did Canada ever expect to have a competitive advantage in auto assembly?

#4 Shawn Allen on 12.08.18 at 3:44 pm

There are fewer manufacturing jobs. And yet what has happened to GPD per capita and the standard of living over the past 40 years? Risen a lot? What about over the last 20 years? Also risen?

#5 Shawn Allen on 12.08.18 at 3:45 pm

And yet the unemployment rate just hit a record low not seen in well over 40 years.

#6 WUL on 12.08.18 at 3:45 pm

The decline of manufacturing in Canada is due to the purposeful manufacturing of decline. We have lots of room to depress wages further and create more poor people.

#7 Linda on 12.08.18 at 3:47 pm

Excellent post regarding factors that have led to the decline in manufacturing. I especially like the reference to changes in consumption as new technologies & societal shifts come into effect. The sheer pace of change can be daunting, but there are opportunities. The trick is in recognizing them soon enough to reap the benefits.

#8 Shawn on 12.08.18 at 3:48 pm

Good podcast last week.

#9 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.08.18 at 3:49 pm

“We need to focus on skills retraining programs and ensure our kids and young adults are concentrating in the areas of high job growth in Canada….”

+++++

Excellent article Ryan but I think the “change” in our “job skills” requirements moving forward needs a radical rethink from our school system right up to the expectations of young workers moving forward.
Too much time spent on touchy feeling anti bullying garbage and less time spend preparing kids for the real world where things aren’t fair and bully’s really do exist

The majority of workers in the trades are in their 50’s or older.
Kids have been brainwashed to think a university education is the only way to get ahead.
Physical labour, dirt, noise, sweat….is just not in young men’s vocabulary today.
And God forbid me for mentioning this gender sensitive topic but……
Is the rising divorce rate and single family homes partially to blame?
No working Father figure role models? No men “fixing things” in the garage or around the home creating a nation of young boys lacking the most basic tool skills?
A nation of children unable to handle someone criticizing their shoddy, slackadasical work ethic?
A nation of 20 something manchilds honing their PS4 skills gaming in the basement?
Or parents dragging their children into extra curricular activities and after hours tutoring so that they are “top of the class” in marks but bereft of any part-time job skills?

18 to 20 year olds with excellent educations but the people skills of an accountant at an amateur Comedy Club and the trouble shooting skills of a Cloistered Nun at a Vegas casino…

All in all ……Canada , a nation that has been training kids to expect, nay demand, constant praise for a “good job” even when they arrive late, barely work and ask to leave early……
And when they are fired. They couldn’t care less.

Perhaps a potential brutal, prolonged recession to wise up a ton of people who have never experienced “hard times” might do the trick…..at least it will get them out of the basement when the internet is cut off due to lack of payment.

#10 Wiggle room on 12.08.18 at 3:50 pm

I wouldn’t include truck driver in this list. They’re soon to go the route of automation as well.

#11 Red_falcon on 12.08.18 at 4:01 pm

Or you can be a Pokémon boss raid hunter. Someone in Singapore did that and is being paid for it. He got banned from the game for 30 days too.

First!!!

Red :)

#12 Stan Brooks on 12.08.18 at 4:03 pm

These occupations in the list are called careers…

With these wages, most of them part time, people can barely survive after paying all the taxes with the ever increasing cost of living.

Bottom line is: all these ‘service’ jobs are doomed.

I don’t thing people understand that we live at game changing times of total outsourcing and disappearing of jobs and replacement with part time gigs that can not support a family.

All these upbeat news and political mumbo jumboes are just noise to confuse the herd.

Investments here are not likely due to multiple reasons:
– inability to attract top talent,
– lack of innovation culture despite all these ‘innovation’ news reported the most notable of them lately being the analog watch that will kill iWatch and the business entrepreneurship of a former porn star in Montreal, completely in line with IQ of the current rulers from the T2’s gang.
– weak currency,
– terrible politics culture, horrible taxes
– unwillingness to reward justly skills

Smoking Man’s words on the topics are spot on, despite being accepted as clinical, from a side things look verry different.

What kills me intellectually is the willingness of the current rulers to increase immigration despite the dire situation with the economy and the extreme debt that we are drown in.

What are these people going to go here, further erode and underbid the labout market? Why immigration services keep hiding from the true state and quality of of life here, is that fair to future immigrants who would most likely feel miserably here?

#13 Figure it Out on 12.08.18 at 4:12 pm

How do you grow a manufacturing sector in a country with a small home market and a fluctuating, cyclical currency (a petrodollar)? In the Auto Pact years, domestics had to build a car here for every one they sold, and tariffs and quotas kept foreign manufacturers at bay. No longer.

Canada’s competitive advantages are in stock scams, money laundering and moose pasture. If you could build an industry combining those things… Oh, Cannabis!

#14 Stone on 12.08.18 at 4:15 pm

Fortunately, President Trump is trying to address this in the new NAFTA agreement requiring that 40-45% of car parts be made by workers earning US$16/hr, which will help to narrow the wage gap between North American and Mexican autoworkers.

———

Can you please advise and source when Mexico was excluded from North America please?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependent_territories_in_North_America

#15 AK on 12.08.18 at 4:17 pm

“Below is a list of the top 15 careers in demand in Canada. ”
====================================
There is only one job on the list that makes more money than an Oshawa GM worker.

#16 Stan Brooks on 12.08.18 at 4:26 pm

#5 Shawn Allen on 12.08.18 at 3:45 pm
And yet the unemployment rate just hit a record low not seen in well over 40 years.

============================

It is fake numbers.

Low paid service jobs. Try living on it.

As for TSX, just saw that TD and RBC are higher in terms of capitalization than Goldman Sacks, Morgan Stanley and UBS, note these are world stage top financial players.

BNS is on par with Goldman Sacks, with CIBC and BMO close behind. Insane valuations for the state and the size of the economy.

Imagine what is going to happen with the service jobs, when the housing super bubble and related financial services implode.

What a mess, first economy is booming, ‘huge’ job numbers, pay huge premiums for a house and sick up all taxes, skyrocketing cost of living, as you are getting ‘rich’ with the house valuation while enjoying the wise, progressive T2 policies.

But on another hand we keep piling record debt at all levels, private and public, with interest rates at 1.75 (?!?) while manufacturing jobs disappear?

So which one it is? Booming or tanking economy?

#17 Daughter of Ponzi on 12.08.18 at 4:30 pm

Canada and US are neither manufacturing nor service based, they are debt-based FIRE economies. Without debt there would be very little left here.

#18 Stan Brooks on 12.08.18 at 4:37 pm

Just saw that, worth sharing:


The CBC suggests having less children as a way to reduce carbon emissions

https://www.thepostmillennial.com/malcolm-the-cbc-should-stay-out-of-the-bedrooms-of-the-nation/?fbclid=IwAR399c_BPXAmKN03l3Z85VAZ5vGDU9vy4d5KSQQNNhU5D3Eui22k_rveZ80

The key points:
– Canada’s fertility rates are among the lowest in the Western world,
the herd is so indebted that it can’t reproduce.

Lower population but higher immigration?
This argument runs in the face of another favourite theory pushed by activists on the left, often advocated through the CBC: that due to Canada’s declining fertility rates, we need to take advantage of mass migration to boost our economy and grow the population. Without immigration-fuelled population growth, Canada’s lucrative social welfare programs would be unsustainable.

and the punchline:

Canadians want to have more children, but they can’t afford it

While people in supposedly third world countries can.

#19 unbalanced on 12.08.18 at 4:54 pm

Along time ago when NAFTA was signed, these points were brought up. Years later it is biting us in the a$$.

#20 John The Otter on 12.08.18 at 5:04 pm

Psychologists earning $40 in Toronto? They charge 4X that.

The new graduates from Toronto who work on a sliding scale wouldn’t even charge that for a broke young man like myself, who had to seek a therapist as a condition of a peace bond that was initiated by a false accusation.

Toronto is a money laundering haven, but hell for an average man.

#21 acdel on 12.08.18 at 5:04 pm

Great Post Ryan…

Some great comments today..

Always appreciated Garth, you are doing a great service to many..

#22 Ed on 12.08.18 at 5:06 pm

Most of our industries that pay the bills in Canada are looking to move or have moved south for better returns,less regulation,fewer roadblocks to prosperity.

Meanwhile Ottawa burns and someone is playing the fiddle.

#23 tccontrarian on 12.08.18 at 5:10 pm

My massage therapist, now mostly working out of his own space at home, charges $100 for a one-hour session.
He sees 5-8 clients a day!

I’m nudging my teenage son to consider going into this field, or similar. People will always need ‘therapy’, of one type or another.

Re “timing is a bitch”, Ryan – I prefer a more euphimistic “timing is everything”. We owe the existence of one our offspring due to some bad ‘timing’ on my part! :)

TCC

#24 You Missed One on 12.08.18 at 5:10 pm

The piano tuner with restoration skills.

#25 Self-checkout sucks on 12.08.18 at 5:11 pm

Ryan, I’m glad to read that you’re also demanding a real person instead of using self-checkout. Where are our kids and grandkids going to work?

#26 Ustabe on 12.08.18 at 5:15 pm

I wouldn’t include truck driver in this list. They’re soon to go the route of automation as well.

Autonomous trucks will maybe fine for the A to B part but once at the warehouse and split up for delivery to points C,D,E,F,G,H…and so on, that will require people.

A local couple and my wife and I trade dinner every now and then. He is a Vancouver refugee, too young to stop working, too well off to need anything real.

He took a job as a document courier, one of Transunion’s many companies. His route takes him 4-6 hours a day. He tells me (and I have zero reason to doubt him) that he bills $35-40,000 per year.

When we took daily deliveries on the vet clinic we had for a bit the Purolater guy would top $100,000 every third year or so while rattling around $90-95,000 always. He, however worked 10 hour days, had freight as well as smalls, looked like he was almost worked to death. He also worked 6 days a week.

#27 Ryan Lewenza on 12.08.18 at 5:22 pm

Wiggle room “I wouldn’t include truck driver in this list. They’re soon to go the route of automation as well.”

These are the top jobs in current demand. I agree autonomous cars are a real long-term threat to truck drivers, but I think we’re still a ways off from autonomous cars completely replacing truck drivers. – Ryan L

#28 Brett in Calgary on 12.08.18 at 5:24 pm

Good article Ryan. Automation is absolutely eating our standard of living by devaluing human labor (of course offshoring doesn’t help either). That combined with this blog’s principal topic (out-of-control housing) has really chipped away at the Canadian dream.

#29 Evangeline on 12.08.18 at 5:25 pm

Ryan,

To your second point, in July 2018 President Trump launched an initiative to get people trained in up to date skills. He enlisted 23 corporations like Home Depot, Fed Ex, Boeing etc. to start paid apprenticeship jobs. The program was launched at a WH event attended by the company CEO’s who announced how many apprenticeships they were starting and by students who are currently working as apprentices. I watched a video of the event and everyone was happy, the employers and the employees who were being paid to learn.

#30 slam on 12.08.18 at 5:39 pm

#1 Wait… pharmacists make 47 an hour?!!?

My cousin was offered 50/hour as a new grad pharmacists, but in Prince George.

#31 VicPaul on 12.08.18 at 5:43 pm

At 23 1/2 my middle child/eldest son earned his Red Seal Industrial qualification and stepped into a full-time gig with Seaspan paying $40.50/hr regular time. If he chooses, he can begin at 5 am and get double time for the first two hrs + Saturdays (again optional) at double time = $81/hr (ya, I did that calculation for you). He has now worked one year and will make more this year than his top-of-the-pay-scale Teacher Dad…I know, proud Dad (I’m bragging, not complaining). Young dudes/dudettes – check your options carefully.

#32 Dolce Vita on 12.08.18 at 5:47 pm

The common thread to success of your MOST IN DEMAND table is this:

Work that is CONSUMED LOCALLY AND ON THE SPOT.

China cannot as of yet ship you a home complete with a basement, foundation, services and hole in the ground nor send a plumber from Beijing to Mississauga in an hour or so to fix your water tank.

White collar jobs come under fire especially with an IT component to them.

For example, India’s InfoSys can have a Project Team working on an e-business project in Canada or the US and send most of the work to lower wage rate India, their work day is when we sleep; thus, offering a near 24 hour service that is cheaper with a faster turnaround for its clients.

Thus, even white collar jobs of the future have to be consumed locally and on the spot (e.g., Pharmacist, Vet. Tech, Nurse) along with an IT caveat ala InfoSys.

By the way, IBM and Accenture started doing what Infosys has done (use Indian IT personnel in India to do the work while we sleep) – just like Canadian and US manufacturing companies did, they offshored to cut wage costs.

Any type of manufacturing consumed locally and on the spot will also succeed. Clever Canadians have to figure out how to do that if manufacturing is to make a come back in Canada.

Gov. Reg cutting and lower taxes have to go a long country mile to offset the fractional wages of Mexico and Asia to boost Cdn. manufacturing jobs. I think that is ultimately a fool’s errand which will yield few results and cost Cdn. taxpayers a lot of money with little gain.

#33 Jan Corbinski on 12.08.18 at 5:56 pm

Truly concerning but not ALL loss. Historic photos of Toronto’s shoreline reveal an ugly, polluted past.

#34 KLNR on 12.08.18 at 5:57 pm

@#10 Wiggle room on 12.08.18 at 3:50 pm
I wouldn’t include truck driver in this list. They’re soon to go the route of automation as well.
_________________________

ya, replace truck driver with youtuber, blogger or influencer.
If I were just starting out now i’d consider
the healthcare-tech route.

#35 Joe Schmoe on 12.08.18 at 6:14 pm

Justin and Bill say everything is rosy.

I think I will believe them instead of this witchcraft of “math” and “facts”.

#36 Ryan Lewenza on 12.08.18 at 6:16 pm

Stone “Can you please advise and source when Mexico was excluded from North America please?”

You got me. I meant US and Canada. – Ryan L

#37 Ryan Lewenza on 12.08.18 at 6:24 pm

Daughter of Ponzi “Canada and US are neither manufacturing nor service based, they are debt-based FIRE economies. Without debt there would be very little left here.”

Well that’s one of the dumber things I’ve heard in a while. We have some of the best companies in the world and our governments are relatively stable. Go to Venezuela and then let me know what you think about Canada. – Ryan L

#38 BobC on 12.08.18 at 6:34 pm

Isn’t #3 caused by #2? Today’s title could have been “Why Trump was elected”

#39 TurnerNation on 12.08.18 at 6:35 pm

You know what you’re up against is the UN agenda when False Scarcity is being sold. Kanada is 2nd largest country by land mass, in the world.
But no we are to be herded into increasingly crowded cities , to go though the spastic machinations of living, or trying, when a permanent and violent underclass wreaks our havoc onto our plans. Public sector unions, running the poverty and crime industries, rejoice.

Grenenbelt? Give me a break. People spend most of their waking hours starting at a screen anyway.

https://globalnews.ca/news/4742833/ontario-development-legislation-greenbelt/

#40 Grocer on 12.08.18 at 6:36 pm

#25
Ryan, I’m glad to read that you’re also demanding a real person instead of using self-checkout. Where are our kids and grandkids going to work?

There always going to be a need for someone to take that E. coli ridden lettuce off the shelf.

#41 TurnerNation on 12.08.18 at 6:36 pm

…and in those cities to be ruled over by the Global A.I. state (we’re really too dumb anyway) while local elected reps do nothing – if they value their jobs.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/sidewalk-labs-consultation-privacy-concerns-1.4938331

Since the partnership between Waterfront Toronto and Google-affiliated Sidewalk Labs was announced in October 2017, the proposal has been marred by questions over how data will be collected, kept, accessed and protected.

#42 IHCTD9 on 12.08.18 at 6:41 pm

Wages too high. Energy too high. Regulation too high. Taxes too high. Litigation too high. Pensions too high. Liabilities too high… Compared to the Southern USA, Mexico, and any 3rd world / developing nation you care to name.

That’s it in a nutshell. If cars were still made 100% in the 1st world like they were in the 50’s – and with all that has transpired since the birth of the industry, huge numbers of us would not be able to afford them. Now add in all the financing options available today, and nuke them too. Say goodnight, almost no Westerner could buy a brand new F150 under these conditions.

We’re just way too expensive, top to bottom. Getting competitive with places like China and Mexico isn’t going to happen without a commensurate reduction in quality of life, and lifestyle, so – it’s not happening – period. There is going to have to be a different way forward outside of making stuff, we’ve plain priced ourselves out of the market.

I regularly lose work to foreign countries, the prices are so cheap we stop bidding immediately. There’s no way to pay everything we have to pay here in the West and be competitive with these places. They get paid peanuts, and their currency is worth Jack. I slash our price to the bone marrow, and I’m still 100’s of percent high.

And then there’s the effects of automation and AI to consider on top!

#43 espressobob on 12.08.18 at 7:11 pm

Self employment is the path younger people should consider. Longer hours, more work and loads of headaches, and way more rewarding than working for someone else.

Why serve one boss when you can answer to a customer base?

#44 Daughter of Ponzi on 12.08.18 at 7:19 pm

37 Ryan Lewenza on 12.08.18 at 6:24 pm
Daughter of Ponzi “Canada and US are neither manufacturing nor service based, they are debt-based FIRE economies. Without debt there would be very little left here.”

Well that’s one of the dumber things I’ve heard in a while. We have some of the best companies in the world and our governments are relatively stable. Go to Venezuela and then let me know what you think about Canada. – Ryan L
——————————————————————-
Of course this is the opinion of someone working for the FIRE industry. What actually do you guys make that is really beneficial to this society?
Take out the colossal private and government debt in US and Canada and then let me know how much is left.
Okay it is better than Venezuela. But can you explain why it only attracts immigration from third world countries when it’s so good here.

#45 Deplorable Dude on 12.08.18 at 7:20 pm

Ross Perot…1992 Presidential election…

“We have got to stop sending jobs overseas. It’s pretty simple: If you’re paying $12, $13, $14 an hour for factory workers and you can move your factory South of the border, pay a dollar an hour for labor, … have no health care—that’s the most expensive single element in making a car— have no environmental controls, no pollution controls and no retirement, and you don’t care about anything but making money, there will be a giant sucking sound going south.

… when [Mexico’s] jobs come up from a dollar an hour to six dollars an hour, and ours go down to six dollars an hour, and then it’s leveled again. But in the meantime, you’ve wrecked the country with these kinds of deals”

#46 Shawn Allen on 12.08.18 at 7:20 pm

Then Let Them Eat Capital?

#28 Brett in Calgary on 12.08.18 at 5:24 pm said:

Good article Ryan. Automation is absolutely eating our standard of living by devaluing human labor

***********************************
That is certainly true for unskilled labour in particular. To the extent it is or will be true of skilled labour it means more of what the economy produces (and it will produce more with automation) must go the owners of the machines, the owners of capital.

The only way for most of us to participate in that is to buy shares in companies and some corporate debt / preferred shares as well. These are somewhat on sale now. Buy early and buy often. Save your money and invest.

#47 Keith on 12.08.18 at 7:28 pm

For the the list of dead department stores in Canada in the last quarter century tells the story:

Woodwards, Eatons, Zellers, Sears.

Hudson’s Bay is the last one standing that caters to what used to be the middle middle class. Dollar stores, Costco and Walmart are thriving. The growth of high end stores in Vancouver has been unbelievable – Tiffany’s, Brooks Brothers, Hermes, Van Cleef and Arpels, not to mention the explosion of luxury car dealerships.

Productivity increases used to be shared with workers, taking the legal work week from 100 down to forty. Those decreases ended decades ago. Every time a manufacturing plant gets remodeled, employment plummets. In the sixties, the sawmill in Port Alberni employed 2000 and produced a million board feet a day. Today the productivity is the same, and employment is down to less than a hundred.

Sadly the government talks about preserving and enhancing a middle class that is history. The middle class is already effectively dead. The changes that are coming will steamroller vast chunks of the working population. The auto industry is investing tens of billions in electric vehicle development. There goes over half the petroleum product consumption in the U.S. alone.

Retail is one of the biggest employers in Canada, and online shopping will wipe out 50 – 90% of those jobs. I can see some kinds of showrooms surviving, and some sales people but people will largely shop from home.

The automation, computerization and robotization will move relentlessly up the economic food chain. As for professionals, work that can be outsourced overseas will go to highly educated professionals in China and India and temporary foreign workers will continue their negative influence on working wages.

I wouldn’t look to government for leadership and sound policy in the painful transition to come. It will be up to everyone to take care of their own. The people without financial resources or other skills will be twisting in the wind.

#48 Not So New guy on 12.08.18 at 7:31 pm

Funny how the price of their labor drops by 75% but the price of their cars never does

#49 Canada Can Compete on 12.08.18 at 7:37 pm

The official minimum wage for an 8 hour day in Mexico is now $5.81 CAD per day – not per hour.

#50 Salutations Sally on 12.08.18 at 7:39 pm

Kudo’s to you Ryan, for refusing to use the self-checkouts. I’m the same; these are jobs that people need to have. I do most of my banking on-line, but when I do go into a bank and the teller suggests that I could do my transactions on the ATM machine, I just smile and tell him/her that I’m helping to keep his/her job relevant.

#51 Drill Baby Drill on 12.08.18 at 7:39 pm

As a comparison in the oil patch. 80% of the recent past layoffs have been oil patch service industries ie: surveyors, truckers, new trucks, food supply, welders, engineers, pipe valves & fittings. Steel of all kinds.

Canada’s oil patch is 6 times that of auto manufacturing. So why would Libs not “be all over this.”

#52 Long-Time Lurker on 12.08.18 at 7:48 pm

A well written post, Ryan. See, I’m on topic today!

#53 not so liquid in calgary on 12.08.18 at 7:50 pm

“peaks your interest,”, or “piques your interest,”?

#54 Jack Sparrow on 12.08.18 at 7:55 pm

Who needs manufacturing when we’ve got pot, crypto, mining… Oh, wait! https://biv.com/article/2018/12/massive-corrupt-bc-cannabis-crypto-mining-and-energy-shares-scheme-alleged

#55 For those about to flop... on 12.08.18 at 7:56 pm

Pink Pumpkins being carved in Richmond.

Well, in a couple of weeks we switch over to Pink Snow for the third time, but there are still a couple of people struggling to offload their oversized pumpkins.

Speaking of Pink Snow, I have had some action up in this area of Richmond before,would have to go through the Pink Files to see how close the address is to this one, but with the amount of speculation the last decade and and a half,I guess you can’t cast a stone without hitting someone’s land bank.

The details…

3391 Rosamond Ave, Richmond.

Paid 1.8 March 2016

Originally asking 2.48

Now asking 1.68

Assessment 1.7

So after picking it up during Spring Fling 2016 they had it back on by September and have had a least one crack at getting their money back in the following years.

After listing originally for 2.48 , they obviously fancied their chances at a quick profit but Mr Market was full as a fat lady’s sock and needed a rest.

When they listed in September 2016 the market was already starting to roll over under its own weight.

A change in rules and regulations,change of government and seemingly enough of a pause in proceedings that the smart money looked for the exits, and since then the lambs have been lead to the slaughterhouse when they were only looking for shelter…

M44BC

3391 Rosamond Avenue, Richmond paid 1.8 March 2016 ass 1.7

Aug 9:$1,875,000
Dec 7: $1,680,000
Change: – 195000.00 -10%

https://www.zolo.ca/richmond-real-estate/3391-rosamond-avenue

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Feel free to make a small donation for cancer research.

Flop For Fox Fund…

http://www.terryfox.org/get-involved/ways-to-give/

#56 WUL on 12.08.18 at 8:07 pm

For about the millionth time I read here that there is two much “red tape” and we need to reduce regulation. Sometimes I read the height of idiocy of proposals along the lines of “For every regulation government passes, two should have to be rescinded.”

None of the authors of these conservative bumper sticker slogans ever list even a couple that call for rescission.

I have a few suggestions. Food safety, elevator safety, traffic safety and pharmaceutical approval.

Absent suggestions, the wailing is hollow.

Jeez.

#57 NoName on 12.08.18 at 8:12 pm

42 IHCTD9 on 12.08.18 at 6:41 pm

Wages too high. Energy too high. Regulation too high. Taxes too high. Litigation too high. Pensions too high. Liabilities too high… Compared to the Southern USA, Mexico, and any 3rd world / developing nation you care to name.

That’s it in a nutshell. If cars were still made 100% in the 1st world like they were in the 50’s – and with all that has transpired since the birth of the industry, huge numbers of us would not be able to afford them. Now add in all the financing options available today, and nuke them too. Say goodnight, almost no Westerner could buy a brand new F150 under these conditions.

—-

You are wrong, other than regulation being stricter here and wages lot smaller its basically only difference, hydro is probably 25% more expensive in Mexico than in us. If all products in you example cars were being made “here” we would be able to buy them because wages would mach needs as they did before.

One thing actually two things that are interesting when henry started car company he was paying people decent wage so his employees can buy his cars, and on an average he was paying much more than gm and chrysler, so he doesn’t have big turnaround of workers, and other two would not easily poached already trained employees. Trening someone on a job is expensive, unless you are paying them a peenuts.

Dude i worked with oftel told me a same story over and over about his employer who also had plant in China, every time when they could not meet or they wanted more throughput they would just hire one or two more to satisfy need, while price would be affected just a tiny bit…

How did we mange to have families with lots of kids and only one income earner, we were building stuff, not outsourcing it. If epa gas mileage wasn’t scraped maybe things would look bit more different.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eT1ucETSySs

#58 Smoking Man on 12.08.18 at 8:34 pm

The little weasel is on the run. French generlas tell macron no to global compact on migration.
If internet reports are correct Macron is in hiding.

It’s spreading to Belgium now.

Come on Canada. Save yourselves. Yellow up and meet up in Ottawa and tell T2 to shove it..

#59 ww1 on 12.08.18 at 8:38 pm

#48 Not So New guy on 12.08.18 at 7:31 pm
Funny how the price of their labor drops by 75% but the price of their cars never does

I wondered about that too, but then I looked at the “standard equipment” on even the most inexpensive cars. Air bags, anti-lock brakes, power steering, power brakes, power windows, power locks, entertainment systems, electronic ignition, etc. All those things used to be extra cost options. Not to mention the huge improvements in gas mileage, pollution levels, safety, rust prevention, and driving performance. Overall I’d say you get a lot more car from your money today than 25 years ago once you adjust for inflation.

#60 Toni on 12.08.18 at 9:05 pm

“Her job is under pressure from the self-checkout machines, which is why I never use these when buying my groceries!”…Well said!! I think we should really start to pay attention to our buying behaviors, on a daily basis, which, multiplied by millions of us can make the difference; behind each save job, there are X saved jobs. It’s a bit late but not quite. Still in the grocery theme, look where the products come from and buy Canadian made. Avoid using plastic bags and replace by available environmental solutions; there is already enough plastic floating in oceans and ingested by marine life. We are individually responsible for what’s going on. All these little things that make big differences when multiplied by millions of consumers. We ignore the massive power we have as individuals.

#61 Solutions Here! on 12.08.18 at 9:26 pm

Let’s move those auto workers to the oil patch and move some energy. Lose the carbon taxes or we will get yellow-vested. Fiscal Security is real and if you don’t have that, what have you got? Venezuela.

#62 Common Sense on 12.08.18 at 9:39 pm

DELETED

#63 Stan Brooks on 12.08.18 at 9:41 pm

#37 Ryan Lewenza on 12.08.18 at 6:24 pm
Daughter of Ponzi “Canada and US are neither manufacturing nor service based, they are debt-based FIRE economies. Without debt there would be very little left here.”

Well that’s one of the dumber things I’ve heard in a while. We have some of the best companies in the world and our governments are relatively stable. Go to Venezuela and then let me know what you think about Canada. – Ryan L

For US spot on.

There are some good companies in Canada, no question about it.

But the whole argument: Go to Venezuela if you don’t like it here is very lame, as it gives carte blanche to any government first, no matter the quality and second shuts down any criticism.

190 countries can say it (Go to Venezuela if you don’t like it here) and the things are not rosy in all of them.

The fact that FIRE and debt is blown out of proportion here is solid, the fact that there are some good companies does not invalidate it.

#64 Grand Am on 12.08.18 at 9:42 pm

#59 ww1 – I had all that fancy equipment, and after 35,000 clicks it was costing me $2,000 in annual part replacements. The car was falling apart while driving down the street. It was a lemon for sure, and it even needed new tires, but my guy got me a deal by buying a set through the backdoor. The tires are dated, and once a year is up they cannot be legally sold from a retail store, and guess where they came from?

#65 IHCTD9 on 12.08.18 at 10:00 pm

#57 NoName on 12.08.18 at 8:12 pm
———-

I’d love to agree with you on this one, but these guys are getting paid 35.00+/hr to bolt on fenders. If every last component on the car was built 100% by us folks at these rates, a Chevy Cruze would probably cost 100k.

I work at a facility that builds things out of steel. 100% of all work is done in house right here in Canada. When I see a riding mower on sale at Canadian Tire for $999.99, I do a quickie estimate in my head of how many hours I would have to build it based on a rough guess on the weight of it and current steel prices. It’s a joke at our shop rates. I’d need 10x the price or more to end up in the black. Would you buy a “Yard Works” lawn tractor for 10k?

Globalized manufacturing has absolutely pounded the prices of just about any consumer goods you can name right into the ground. Cars lagged behind, but the writing was on the wall near 20 years ago already. There’s no way to compete with our high cost society against one where folks work in factories with dirt floors with zero benefits, crap wages, no pension, no health care, basically no nothing. It’s just impossible.

#66 Stan Brooks on 12.08.18 at 10:04 pm

#32 Dolce Vita on 12.08.18 at 5:47 pm

Good post.

But maintenance jobs do not create an economy, where we are headed, the demand for such will be reduced first and second the insane competition in that only viable field left (except agriculture and farming that is automated and limited by weather) will drive further wages down there as well.

It is a strange situation – buildings here are not built to last, not the glass condos, nor the cardboard particle homes, they need constant maintenance, not like in Europe where low rise homes and apartment buildings last centuries with little maintenance.

So we need extra maintenance of homes and infrastructure but owners become poorer and can’t afford it, not a pretty picture.

So those jobs won’t stay attractive for long.

As for complete automation of driving, it is a done deal, the technology is evolving very quickly and at some point, very soon (5 to 10 years max, maybe less) will be mature enough to make truck and taxi drivers obsolete. That and shared service platforms like Uber.

Retail jobs are done.

Pharmacies can and will be completely automated.

I would advise on looking for farmland or a village in a country with nice weather and think about relocating there from the big cities, Italy or southern France could be a very good choice.

No GMO, very cheap, a castle in France with huge piece of land is 20 % of the cost of a crack shack in Vancouver that is already marginalized as a city with all the druggies and empty homes.

Prepare for total disappearance of jobs and automation, service jobs can not maintain an economy.
Big cities will be worse affected, what will these people in the suburbs do without jobs?

Look at Detroit, it was the richest city in the world just a century ago.

This time though the speed of change is 10 times faster.

Give it 10 years and you won’t recognize the big cities.
Crime will probably explode.

The days of the waged labour will very soon be over so prepare for life after that.

#67 Suburban Bob on 12.08.18 at 10:21 pm

I have friends in Oshawa who are facing this tough reality now. They are long past the time when you could retrain and re-employ yourself easily, but not yet at retirement age. What will they do? What will happen to their neighborhoods and property values?

#68 SmarterSquirrel on 12.08.18 at 10:30 pm

Jobs are no longer secure. People should be aware of their rights under employment law, and if you’re not aware and you lose a job, before you sign anything, speak with a qualified lawyer with a focus on employment law and wrongful dismissal.

Also, given that jobs are no longer secure, while you’re earning an income you really should be preparing for a day when you lose your job, by building a passive income to help buffer you from the financial pain of a job loss. It’s the same action you take for building a retirement portfolio, it just comes in handy if you lose your job before you were planning on retiring. This is how I’ve done it over many years https://smartersquirrel.com/how-i-built-a-six-figure-passive-income-by-age-47

And if you have a good lawyer they can help you negotiate a proper severance package that can either help you get through your period of unemployment by providing cash to help supplement your passive income which would then be followed by any EI payments.

As for pharmacists, just know that the industry is dominated by a few big players. They are squeezing every ounce of blood out of pharmacists that they can. Speak with a few older pharmacists to find out how attractive that profession is today, despite it being the top hourly wage in the table of 15 professions.

#69 KLNR on 12.08.18 at 10:40 pm

@#66 Stan Brooks on 12.08.18 at 10:04 pm

Look at Detroit, it was the richest city in the world just a century ago.
________________________________

Also look at businesses like blockbuster video, the taxi industry, hotel/travel industries. Even the financial services industry is evolving with all the big players coming out with roboadvisors.
Don’t get too comfortable or complacent folks.
Keep learning and stay ahead of the game – it’s ever changing.

#70 Harry on 12.08.18 at 10:41 pm

Welder $36

Where is from – American dollars 20 years ago?

#71 Viorelli on 12.08.18 at 11:28 pm

With the constant increase in the cost of living, more taxes, China, TFW, loss of good jobs, one day there will be no middle class. The planet is overpopulated and there will be no piece of pie to go around for everyone. People in developed nations will be crushed by excessive taxes, worsening quality of life, crime, and inflation. Eventually a civil unrest will follow, those who are armed and well organized will seal the borders, and get their own economy going while shutting the globalist parasitic activity out of their economic zone of control. Those will survive, others will be whipped into total submission and become slaves working for food and credit cards balancing.

#72 yvrmc on 12.08.18 at 11:45 pm

#55 Flop…. thanks for the update re 1640 Riverside… things are slowly working their way down …..

#73 Barb on 12.08.18 at 11:51 pm

My household misses Canada’s textiles.

Now we have foreign-made towels whose colour must be carefully matched to other same load laundry items, or you’ll never recognize those dishtowels are even yours.
The factory saved on janitors as their dusty clippings made the export trip into my dryer’s lint screen.

Same thing for underwear other than white: you don’t want to shock the ambulance attendant.

Sheets that only before the first wash actually fit the bed.
But, ick, who’d use them without washing them first?

Self checkouts: I refuse to use them! But I confess I love the ATM at the bank.

#74 NoName on 12.09.18 at 12:07 am

#65 IHCTD9 on 12.08.18 at 10:00 pm
#57 NoName on 12.08.18 at 8:12 pm
———-

I’d love to agree with you on this one, but these guys are getting paid 35.00+/hr to bolt on fenders. If every last component on the car was built 100% by us folks at these rates, a Chevy Cruze would probably cost 100k.

I work at a facility that builds things out of steel. 100% of all work is done in house right here in Canada. When I see a riding mower on sale at Canadian Tire for $999.99, I do a quickie estimate in my head of how many hours I would have to build it based on a rough guess on the weight of it and current steel prices. It’s a joke at our shop rates. I’d need 10x the price or more to end up in the black. Would you buy a “Yard Works” lawn tractor for 10k?

Globalized manufacturing has absolutely pounded the prices of just about any consumer goods you can name right into the ground. Cars lagged behind, but the writing was on the wall near 20 years ago already. There’s no way to compete with our high cost society against one where folks work in factories with dirt floors with zero benefits, crap wages, no pension, no health care, basically no nothing. It’s just impossible.

few yrs back i watched bnn and they had a dude talking about manufacturing cost of small cars in canada, i remember well he did mention civic, corolla and focus, i don’t remember exact numbers for each but what was striking is that car#1 (made in canada at the time) was cheapest to produce, equivalent car#2 (also made in canada) was 25% more expensive, and car#3 made in us was twice as much than car#2. All workers are paid same. At some point later production of car#1 got moved to mexico. Now with 2 tier wage in for 10+ yrs going, probably with in 5-10 yrs all those 30+ jobs will be gone.

—-
There’s no way to compete with our high cost society against one where folks work in factories with dirt floors with zero benefits, crap wages, no pension, no health care, basically no nothing. It’s just impossible.

i agree.

Now that you mention steel and riding lawn mower.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8IR00IT0lZA

#75 palebird on 12.09.18 at 12:09 am

#50

I went to a CIBC the other day in Vancouver to deposit some cash in someone elses account. Walked in the door and was looking around for the tellers. Did not see any and was doing a doubletake when the standard issue pasty faced bank manager walked up and asked me if he could help. As I was looking at him I noticed that there was only a large table in the middle of the room with several laptops on it. I explained my situation and he told me that they did not offer that service anymore at this branch. I just looked at him hard and shook my head as I turned and headed out the door. That was a waste of time and breath. Drove down Hastings another km and found a “real” branch with a couple of tellers.

#76 Crazyfox on 12.09.18 at 12:40 am

This is why I commend President Trump for demanding Mexico auto plants pay their workers a higher wage in the latest NAFTA negotiations. – Ryan

President Trump isn’t doing it for the benefit of U.S. auto makers. Everything he has done with automakers has been bad for them:

– U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs 25/10%
– Rolling back EPA gas mileage standards
– Jacking labor costs in Mexico
– Trade war with China
– pro coal/oil, anti green tech policy (includes electric
cars

If Trump’s move to raise wages in Mexico through NAFTA II was a stand alone move, I could see that as good policy but what Trump is doing to U.S. manufacturers as a whole is hurting the industry, in particular, the auto industry. Its why Chev as a defensive move is closing 7 plants and Ford is rumored to do something similar.

The key question is why. Why is Trump ushering in policies that are inflationary and why is he hurting U.S. auto makers as a whole? Its because of the impact of what this will have on debt and what brand icons like Ford and Chev represent.

Last week the world learned that Trump made a deal to have a Trump tower built in Russia in return for dropped sanctions against Russia. We would be very foolish to think political support (propaganda campaigns) for Trump’s election campaign would also come for free. Dramatically shrunken state department, threats to pull out of NATO, highly inflationary policy, the end to nuclear treaties between the U.S. and Russia, tariffs and trade wars, its all connected. Traitor is as traitor does. If I hear you commend Trump with anything ever again, I may have to wash your mouth out with soap!

#77 Nonplused on 12.09.18 at 12:46 am

Ryan, my dear friend, productivity gains do not cause unemployment or manufacturing job loses. They never have. If they did we would have less people employed in manufacturing clothing than we did prior to the invention of the loom, and we don’t we have many, many more (world wide).

I can’t remember the name of the guy and Google isn’t helping but it has certainly been observed on the energy side that increased efficiency increases demand, it does not decrease it. More people can now afford to consume, even at higher prices. Just look at the amount of LED lights and inflatable snowmen in your neighborhood. They weren’t there 20 years ago.

Manufacturing efficiency including robotics lower prices and increase demand. It’s simple S-curve stuff. You should know this.

Something else is afoot and it’s not the economics of building a plant with robots. It’s government and union policy. You can only attach so many wagons to a horse before the horse can’t be beaten into pulling it anymore.

GM is pulling out of Canada, they aren’t transforming those plants to have more robots. Robots could be added but they will still have to pay all the taxes, carbon taxes now the worst idea ever, but also all the pensions. They are not fleeing high wages, wages are so low the government thought they had to regulate them up to $15/h. They aren’t fleeing the cost of putting a robot in a factory in Canada, that can be done for the same price as in China. They are fleeing the increasing financial obligations they face for taxes and union pensions. I say pensions, because the hourly wage isn’t the problem. The GM factory workers don’t get paid anymore than my wife gets paid to do para-legal work, the difference is she doesn’t have a pension and the only form of strike action available to her is to quit.

Folks, it’s simple. Parasites degrade the host. And when the parasites get too big both the host and the parasites die.

GM deserves to die. They have been building crap cars for far too long because they can’t afford to build good cars and cover the pension and the taxes. But they signed the deal.

Remember folks, when Turduea taxes GM he taxes you. GM doesn’t have any money but what they charge you for the car. Tax the rich? Nope. They are taxing you.

#78 akashic record on 12.09.18 at 12:56 am

The wages in the top 15 in-demand jobs are mediocre.
This top15 list represents a Mikey-mouse economy.

#79 Fortune500 on 12.09.18 at 12:58 am

Interesting, I know a plethora of college and university professors who are only ever given part-time contracts. It is a gig economy job now, especially for the younger ones.

I also know many airline pilots who have either given up or moved to other regions of the world due to the low pay and lack of future growth. I would suggest any young student looking at this supposed list to go an do their own research and talk to REAL people in the jobs mentioned.

Oh, and if you are pretty decent in software, don’t bother with Canada. You will be paying San Francisco property prices (ie. Toronto and Vancouver), without the corresponding pay. Better to go to the West Coast of the US and at least get paid the salary needed to live.

Canada has not invested in it’s youth for some time now and seems to be more interested in importing TFWs and keeping home prices artificially high for the benefit of Boomers retirements and foreign investors.

You don’t owe Canada anything. It is a global work force now, and hey … we don’t have a Canadian culture anyways, so go forth and prosper. Where you can.

#80 A Yank in BC on 12.09.18 at 1:14 am

“..and her job is under pressure from the self-checkout machines, which is why I never use these when buying my groceries!”

An understandable emotion given the circumstances.. but does the self-service equipment that you eschew not have to be manufactured and maintained, thereby providing jobs to others? And does the use of this equipment by the customer not allow Zehrs to operate more efficiently, thereby lowering the cost of providing the goods they sell to all?

#81 Dolce Vita on 12.09.18 at 1:40 am

#66 Stan Brooks

As long as we traded with the US we were fine.

Used to work at GE HQ when Welch was CEO. Where to put a plant based on hourly workers mattered little as wages about the same. Canada had much cheaper white collar costs. If a plant had a large salaried cost and manufacturing shipping costs not prohibitive to market then Canada would get the plant.

We traded that economic advantage away when we decided to go along with globalization and NAFTA (as if we were going to compete with Mexican wages, dumb, dumb decision).

This started mid 80’s. People got what they wanted like cheap cars, tee shirts, toys, etc.

Economic Advantage said the bozo Economists. Yet another notch in their Unintended Consequences lipstick case.

In my view we gave up too much. We have been reduced to a job rich but low paying Service Industry nation. All you have to do is look at wage gains. When all you do is trade services internally or hew and draw resources for export, then buy them back as a car from Mexico or Japan, wage gains will only get worse.

But hey, that Superstore Joe tee shirt or whatever name it is, costs $10 bucks so yippee. People are happy.

Dead set against globalization from the word get go for what it would do to Cdn. workers and wages…but here we are.

Grin and bear the stupidity of Gov’s that gave us globalization. We did nothing to stop it. We got what was coming to us.

But financial people made happy as money can now chase deals across the World. At least we still have that. Invest Cdn. cash where we get the best return globally.

And AI + Automation I don’t worry about because then everyone vulnerable including China and Mexico.

On my Frecciarossa high speed train to Milan to finally see da Vinci’s Last Supper. So sorry about mistyped words and it’s early here thus the crankiness.

#82 SoggyShorts on 12.09.18 at 2:26 am

#66 Stan Brooks on 12.08.18 at 10:04 pm
#32 Dolce Vita on 12.08.18 at 5:47 pm

As for complete automation of driving, it is a done deal, the technology is evolving very quickly and at some point, very soon (5 to 10 years max, maybe less) will be mature enough to make truck and taxi drivers obsolete. That and shared service platforms like Uber.

*****************************
5-10 years max? Are you by chance very young? It’s just that you seem to think this is a long period of time.
Most of the 3 million semis active in the US will still be active then.
Do you really think that all 3 million will be converted to AI, or scrapped for AI models?

I thought we talked about this. Try not to say things like “obsolete in 5-10 years max” it makes you sound crazy.
“Maybe less”?!?! What is less than 5? 4? Maybe in 4 years truck drivers will be obsolete?! Come on now.
Exaggerating does not help you.

Even “possibly as soon as 5-10 years from now AI will start replacing drivers in large numbers”
That at least seems plausable because it has “possible & large” which aren’t so specific.

BTW gas has been under $1 for a couple weeks now, how do you feel about your guarantee of $2 gas in 4 years? 100% increase? Feeling good about that one Nostradamus? =)

I think I might be on board with you about pharmacists. I honestly don’t know what they do that a smart vending machine and a decent website couldn’t do. Maybe I just don’t have much experience with them though.

#83 Raigan Burns on 12.09.18 at 2:41 am

“what peaks your interest”

Ahem… it’s “piques”! ;)

#84 Terrier on 12.09.18 at 3:31 am

If robots/ai can keep the corporations profitable, why would voters matter….until they realize robots/ai dont buy things or food…and machines dont have a will to live.

#85 Mark Crook on 12.09.18 at 3:53 am

Shawn Allen nails it at 3, 4, 5. Fewer manufacturing jobs overall because lesser need to manufacture things that hurt when you drop them on your foot. So manufacturing workers freed to take on better-paid jobs in specialist manufacturing, services and other economic activity. GDP rises, wages rise, cost of manufactured goods falls. Virtuous circle.

Frédéric Bastiat had all that thought through and described in the 1840’s; the Candle-Makers Petition, and the Broken Window Fallacy. Well worth the exercise of some Google-fu.

#86 gmc on 12.09.18 at 5:51 am

just look at China, 400 million in the middle class and another 800 million want what we have… they commisioned 59 coal fire power stations last year, that turning on one coal fire station per week, canada polutes ?????

#87 Landless in Van on 12.09.18 at 6:10 am

”determine what peaks your interest”

Sorry, but it’s spelled ‘piques’ your interest.

#88 Flip Jones on 12.09.18 at 7:04 am

The Trudeau economy is failing . Liberal globalists are flushing Canadian jobs down the toilet purposefully and replacing them with newly minted civil servants who are otherwise unemployable. The coming election will pit citizens against the UN . How many bodies can Trudeau stuff into the growing politicaly potent ghettos? If you don’t have a yellow vest, buy one, the end run by your armed civil servants disguised as “Antifa” should have tuned you in to the Trudeau Plan.

#89 Steven Rowlandson on 12.09.18 at 7:15 am

Construction trades.
$15 +/- 10 or 20% Part time or seasonal. Kiddie pay even for experts.

#90 Bdwy sktn on 12.09.18 at 7:41 am

Posted china trade numbers released yesterday. Shockingly bad results.

This gets censored? Or did I accidentally post it to the wrong blog .

#91 Bdwy sktn on 12.09.18 at 7:43 am

I’ll try again……

China Exports, Imports Weaken Ahead of US Talks

https://www.voanews.com/a/china-exports-imports-weaken-ahead-of-us-talks/4692128.html

Missed consensus by more than a country mile.

#92 Ryan Lewenza on 12.09.18 at 8:17 am

A Yank in BC “An understandable emotion given the circumstances.. but does the self-service equipment that you eschew not have to be manufactured and maintained, thereby providing jobs to others? And does the use of this equipment by the customer not allow Zehrs to operate more efficiently, thereby lowering the cost of providing the goods they sell to all?”

Yes there will be technical jobs created to look after the machines but these will be a fraction of the cashier jobs lost. And of course it will lower costs and help the margins of the grocery stores but it’s not always about profits. This is one small thing I can do to try to support jobs in Canada and all it costs me is a few extra minutes in a line. – Ryan L

#93 Ryan Lewenza on 12.09.18 at 8:24 am

Suburban Bob “I have friends in Oshawa who are facing this tough reality now. They are long past the time when you could retrain and re-employ yourself easily, but not yet at retirement age. What will they do? What will happen to their neighborhoods and property values?”

Many of the older workers will have to take the buyout package and retire early. They’ll still have a pension but will lose those additional work years they were banking on so this will impact their lifestyle, savings, and overall net worth. The younger ones will have to find a new job and be retrained. Unfortunately they will likely see their wages and income drop given how good paying these jobs were. The entire city/region is going to be impacted and it’s just terrible. But Oshawa will get through it just like Windsor did in the 80s and 90s. – Ryan L

#94 Ryan Lewenza on 12.09.18 at 8:28 am

Crazyfox “If Trump’s move to raise wages in Mexico through NAFTA II was a stand alone move, I could see that as good policy but what Trump is doing to U.S. manufacturers as a whole is hurting the industry, in particular, the auto industry.”

I agree with this. Some of Trump’s policies (tariffs, trade war with China etc.) are providing a headwind to the US auto and manufacturing sector. That’s why I always say he’s a walking contradiction. – Ryan L

#95 Unifor on 12.09.18 at 8:50 am

Ryan seems to be misinformed about the vehicle and auto parts section in the Free Trade Agreement with Mexico. The $16 per hour on auto workers was an illusion that he is excited about and fully approves; ALMO was laughing about the 2% penalty for vehicles made over the extended limit; and AMLO wrote the auto parts section into the bi-lateral agreement. The President for the Auto Union was played, and can you believe that in DC, the auto section was formulated by AMLO’s shadow advisors there in front of Jerry Dias.

#96 Stan Brooks on 12.09.18 at 8:54 am

#82 SoggyShorts on 12.09.18 at 2:26 am

On driver-less trucks:
10 years is pushing it.

from Financial times (from January this year):

Volvo Group already has a fully automated truck operating in Kristineberg mine in Sweden. It also recently demonstrated a fully driverless truck in China that can drive between delivery hubs without the need for a human operator.

https://www.ft.com/content/7686ea3e-e0dd-11e7-a0d4-0944c5f49e46

and:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/17/truck-drivers-automation-tesla-elon-musk

==========================

On gas prices obviously I did not mean Costco but average prices. Today they are not under $ 1 but $ 108.9 in Toronto and don’t worry, gas will be at 2 $ in 4 years, T2 will make sure of it with the weak loonie, the carbon taxes, lack of pipelines (that means purchases on international markets, no local WCS for eastern provinces)

Plus once this ‘rate increase’ story is over and the QE starts again prices will move very fast, so watch out for price of oil and potentially gold.

#97 dharma bum on 12.09.18 at 9:04 am

The world is changing rapidly, which is having demonstrative effects on our economy and labour force. These changes in part explain why GM decided to shut down its Oshawa plant this month. So what are we to do to combat these changes? – Ryan
——————————————————————–
“Life is a series of natural and spontaneous changes. Don’t resist them; that only creates sorrow. Let reality be reality. Let things flow naturally forward in whatever way they like.”
― Lao Tzu

#98 Figure it Out on 12.09.18 at 9:11 am

“5-10 years max? Are you by chance very young? It’s just that you seem to think this is a long period of time. Most of the 3 million semis active in the US will still be active then. Do you really think that all 3 million will be converted to AI, or scrapped for AI models?”

1. I imagine there will be conversion kits to give trucks automated drive. Where economical, human driven trucks will be converted.
2. It doesn’t matter when ALL trucks become automated, only when a tipping point is reached and the “truck driver” job category goes from shortage to surplus. Then it will be a job where only the best with the cleanest records have jobs, and they’ll have even less bargaining power than they have had.
3. Between insurance costs for human driven trucks and possible stricter pollution regulations banning older OTR trucks, they could be priced and/or legislated off the road quite quickly.

#99 Frito Bandito on 12.09.18 at 9:16 am

#49 Canada Can Compete

The official minimum wage for an 8 hour day in Mexico is now $5.81 CAD per day – not per hour.
——————————————————————–

Ay Caramba! That’s 3 days work for 1 margarita in Toronto! Mucho dinero!

#100 DLee on 12.09.18 at 9:45 am

#25 Self-checkout sucks on 12.08.18 at 5:11 pm</b?

Is that really the goal of life you want for your children and grand children? To work as a cashier? (no disrespect to anyone in this profession). But why not encourage our young citizens to be all that they can be? An engineer, a scientist, invent something. Help improve something in the world to improve the lives of everyone.

Why don't we bring back the daily delivery milk man and the full service gas station attendant too? The world changes and we need to adapt, not hang on to the past.

#101 M. Towne on 12.09.18 at 9:47 am

I guess I would have to ask, “How much regulation (red tape) would have to be eliminated, how low would wages have to go, and how low would corporate tax rates have to go to bring back a certain level of manufacturing employment?”

I get that we have to be competitive with other countries, but this line of reasoning is always presented in terms of “Whatever the situation is now, we need to accept lower wages/lower corporate tax/less regulation” without any real sense of whether that will do the job.

So we definitely get less oversight of industry to protect the environment and the public good, lower pay, and less money for the functioning of government and the provision of services, without any benefit on the other side of the trade.

Maybe the experts should tell us just how much we have to give up to get back our manufacturing jobs, and then we can all look at that proposition and decide whether we’re willing to accept that trade. I suspect that many of us might decide we just don’t want to work on an assembly line that badly.

#102 Jean Pascille on 12.09.18 at 9:53 am

Ryan,
Do you think too much automation of jobs leads to a tipping point of political instability? If too many people are out of work (or secure work) they have time to go to rallys etc. Technological advances are great but if too many people are out of work they can organize against the political leaders that put them out. Just a thought.

#103 Caledondave on 12.09.18 at 9:57 am

If I go to a store with only self checkout, I will purposely put extra stuff in my cart. I will scan only what I want. The rest stays in the cart. An employee will then have to put it away, thus creating employment as well as doing a silent protest.

If we all did this would retailers get the message?

#104 down and out on 12.09.18 at 10:01 am

No one wants to see two superpowers (China and USA ) go at it everyone loses .So they posture a position to show each other how tough theyare and we have many examples thru history . Trump got T2 to arrest a Chinese top executive now China says to T2 release her or face the consequence (trade deal ). This is like two bullies beating up the same innocent victim to show they can dominate each other meanwhile the innocent victim is thinking what did I do to end up on the mat.Some leadership in Canada,sucks to be us.

#105 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.09.18 at 10:08 am

@Stan Brooks

AI at the controls

The drunk drivers salvation……..

https://www.theverge.com/2018/12/3/18124017/chp-tesla-autopilot-police-redwood-city-drunk-driver

#106 IHCTD9 on 12.09.18 at 10:19 am

#74 NoName on 12.09.18 at 12:07 am

few yrs back i watched bnn and they had a dude talking about manufacturing cost of small cars in canada, i remember well he did mention civic, corolla and focus, i don’t remember exact numbers for each but what was striking is that car#1 (made in canada at the time) was cheapest to produce, equivalent car#2 (also made in canada) was 25% more expensive, and car#3 made in us was twice as much than car#2. All workers are paid same. At some point later production of car#1 got moved to mexico. Now with 2 tier wage in for 10+ yrs going, probably with in 5-10 yrs all those 30+ jobs will be gone.

…i agree.

Now that you mention steel and riding lawn mower.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8IR00IT0lZA
—-

I got a BIL that works at Honda, I seem to recall that their Alliston plant was pretty high up the ranking in productivity at one point. When the GFC happened they brought in that 2 tier wage system, years of contracts before full time, and then a decade or more to hit top wage. I think reduced benefits too.

This plant is non Union, but it always waited to see what GM gave before settling with their own workers. It will be interesting to see how the exodus of GM affects future negotiations at other Ontario car plants (both Union and non Union).

Honda has a lot more reasons to stay in Canada than GM did, so we’ll see, but I know that they are poking around in Mexico too from other sources.

That vid says it all. Enough to give any MOL agent a heart attack. Hell, it’s enough to give ME a heart attack! Something tells me that “steel mill” owner there isn’t paying a WSIB premium!

#107 NoName on 12.09.18 at 10:31 am

#97 dharma bum on 12.09.18 at 9:04 am
The world is changing rapidly, which is having demonstrative effects on our economy and labour force. These changes in part explain why GM decided to shut down its Oshawa plant this month. So what are we to do to combat these changes? – Ryan
——————————————————————–
“Life is a series of natural and spontaneous changes. Don’t resist them; that only creates sorrow. Let reality be reality. Let things flow naturally forward in whatever way they like.”
― Lao Tzu

that thing remind me of alan watts, and his cloud thingy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IM_GSyQuinQ

#108 BillyBob on 12.09.18 at 10:35 am

#37 Ryan Lewenza on 12.08.18 at 6:24 pm
Daughter of Ponzi “Canada and US are neither manufacturing nor service based, they are debt-based FIRE economies. Without debt there would be very little left here.”

Well that’s one of the dumber things I’ve heard in a while. We have some of the best companies in the world and our governments are relatively stable. Go to Venezuela and then let me know what you think about Canada. – Ryan L

====================================

The statement is a bit dumb in its breadth, but I’m fairly certain that one way Venezuela and Canada are exactly the same is that no Venezuelan ever thought things would get to the incredibly dire state they’re in now. Venezuela was not always the way it is today.

There’s more than one spot on the same road, y’know…

#109 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.09.18 at 10:55 am

Speaking of “job retraining”……
How does one go about training for a job at Science Care?
Dissectionist?
Packager?

https://ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/idCAKBN1O70RT-OCATP

#110 MF on 12.09.18 at 10:55 am

“All in all ……Canada , a nation that has been training kids to expect, nay demand, constant praise for a “good job” even when they arrive late, barely work and ask to leave early……
And when they are fired. They couldn’t care less.”

-This comment is pure BS. Almost all of my friends work 6-7 days a week. Most with decent jobs. Almost all with part time or moon lighting gigs. We all understand house prices are high and we blame you, the boomers for pooping the post ww2 bed (who caused 2008?).

Yet we adapt.

The boomers are my workplace are a different story but I don’t come on here and chide them, so stop with with the stupid stereotypes already.

MF

#111 Windsor Ontario on 12.09.18 at 11:03 am

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TFhiNnTf3Tc
Our carnival barker speaks like a typical Union Boss in Windsor, Ontario. Look carefully at the assembly line with little in robotics; the number of auto workers; and how they are dressed. A modern auto plant in Mexico, one will see robots manufacturing a vehicle with a few workers dressed in uniforms managing a few items.

#112 MF on 12.09.18 at 11:03 am

#88 Flip Jones on 12.09.18 at 7:04 am

Looks like this clown is looking for someone to blame.

A close family member was a “civil servant” and I watched them work 6-7 days per week with long hours growing up. Me and my sibling now work in the private sector and are doing well. We always voted Conservative so life is not all black and white.

BTW, if you don’t like political policies then blame the politicians who you elected to make them, not those who enforce them.

MF

#113 TRUMP on 12.09.18 at 11:16 am

TO…….. #15 AK

In a years time they’ll “ALL” make more than an Oshawa GM worker.

“Below is a list of the top 15 careers in demand in Canada. ”
====================================
There is only one job on the list that makes more money than an Oshawa GM worker.

#114 Max Tork on 12.09.18 at 11:22 am

Re: #1 Sam604: That is the starting rate, not including benefits. Top scale is over $70. Worth every penny.

#115 The Fat Lady on 12.09.18 at 11:22 am

WE HAVE A PRIME MINISTER

Who would rather work on getting everyone “High” on weed than deal with our manufacturing and energy policies.

He took the easy route – spineless, gutless, loser.

And to everyone who voted for him #### you too.

#116 IHCTD9 on 12.09.18 at 11:32 am

I’ve always had trouble playing Advocatus Diaboli against Dr. Joseph Tainter’s complexity theory. It seems he is bang on with respect to Canada. The fact that ALL rich Western Nations are fighting the same battle against EROEI, only backs him up further as this is what should be expected based on his ideas. He acknowledges collapse when a society begins to cast off it’s complex nature and begins to simplify itself out of need for survival.

When I think about automation and AI, it seems that this technology is a step towards simplification. Much higher EROEI, no pile of complexity as with employing humans. I see moving manufacturing to 3rd world countries as a bid for the same. No Unions, few obligations, minimal liabilities, much higher EROEI, much less complexity.

If JT (unfortunate initials) is correct, we should see increasing attempts at simplification in the West. IMHO, every one of these attempts will be a problem for Government, and to a lesser extent, the Citizenry. Simplification means casting off complexity. The killer part of complexity is its cost and underlying low EROEI. So then, casting off complexity means a simultaneous reduction in costs. What costs? Wages, pensions, benefits, taxes, regulatory fees, insurance, etc. It’s the burden of an advanced society that we all must pay, if we don’t pay, that which makes us advanced will deteriorate.

I can’t see any kind of overpriced labour carrying on anywhere in the world. It was a good run for those that benefitted, but it never was sustainable. Manufacturing will carry on in very low priced, low overhead countries until they too advance, become complex and expensive, and then automation will take over.

JT doesn’t really delve into the fate of big Western Governments, but it goes without saying that they too, can’t carry on the way they are EROEI here is horrifyingly low. Massive complexity and cost, for what is today a very low benefit to the individual Citizen. Just head over to the CBC to see what our Government is spending its resources on. J Tainter is bang on the money here, total waste of human and revenue resources.

It won’t carry on forever, because it can’t. The end game is probably a fully integrated global economy, that’s if we don’t burn down our cities first.

#117 #100 Hurray!!! on 12.09.18 at 11:40 am

You deserve it, Ryan – great blog this week!

#118 IHCTD9 on 12.09.18 at 11:47 am

#47 Keith on 12.08.18 at 7:28 pm
———-

All good points. I think all this will allow further reductions in prices for consumer goods. That’s good because we’ll need it. We might just get by ok.

But, who is going to pay the government when average wages only go down, and millions are unemployed going into this transition to whatever comes next? That’s the wild card. Everything will get cheaper except for anything the government has its fingers in, these will instead keep getting more expensive, and bigger, and more burdensome.

I’d be shocked if Canadian governments could muster the brass to reduce itself, can’t see it.

That leaves some pretty scary remedies…

#119 Shawn Allen on 12.09.18 at 11:53 am

Look on The Bright Side…

A lot of people think the Canadian economy is terrible.

Here are some facts:

In 2017 Canada’s GDP (final retail values of goods and services produced) was $2,180 billion. Population 36.71 million, so $59,380 per person! This is fact.

Now we don’t, even on average, get all of that as income or consumption because some of that value in in free government services and some goes to investment in long-lasting assets and other things for the future.

In fact we consume 58% of GDP so $34,000 per person per year. If that sounds high based on your family, well, I guess you are below average. And this is average not mean which partly explains why it seems high.

We also benefit from $11,000 per capita in government services of all kinds (health care, courts, police, schools, defense and much more).

And perhaps most surprisingly almost $14,000 per capita is being invested mostly by business but partly by government in various longer-lived non-consumption things like buildings and roads and software and machines and much more.

Surprising facts, no?

Here is another figure. Canada brings in $18,000 per person in export revenue per year. And imports a roughly similar amount. Energy and motor vehicles /parts are the two biggest categories.

Read this again and then go sing Oh Canada out loud! We are truly blessed.

#120 Figus Makum on 12.09.18 at 12:07 pm

Nearly two decades ago, I audited household/consumer goods manufacturers in third world countries. Nearly all the line employees in mainland China factories were teenage girls. They laboured 5.5 days/week, were housed and fed at the factory. Employees had one yearly holiday period, approx. 10 days in duration, for Chinese New Year. Monthly remittance was about $ 90 US for these unskilled, mind numbing, repetitive jobs. The more skilled workers, (machinists, plant electricians, etc.) earned around $ 200 US/month. Factories were clean, well organized and safe….. at least the ones I visited.
Even to this very day, I can’t help but wonder how our young people would manage under those working conditions.

#121 Shawn Allen on 12.09.18 at 12:12 pm

Mark Crooks at 85 reveals himself to be very intelligent.

#122 NoName on 12.09.18 at 12:24 pm

#82 SoggyShorts on 12.09.18 at 2:26 am

On driver-less trucks:
10 years is pushing it.

from Financial times (from January this year):

Volvo Group already has a fully automated truck operating in Kristineberg mine in Sweden. It also recently demonstrated a fully driverless truck in China that can drive between delivery hubs without the need for a human operator.

https://www.ft.com/content/7686ea3e-e0dd-11e7-a0d4-0944c5f49e46

and:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/17/truck-drivers-automation-tesla-elon-musk


volvo you are saying…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AsTxS6tg6xc

#123 NoName on 12.09.18 at 12:25 pm

and bonus video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aNi17YLnZpg

#124 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.09.18 at 12:34 pm

#48 Not So New guy on 12.08.18 at 7:31 pm
Funny how the price of their labor drops by 75% but the price of their cars never does
——————-
The magic of capitalism.
Adam Smith never mentioned that.

#125 TalkingPie on 12.09.18 at 12:43 pm

#48 Not So New guy on 12.08.18 at 7:31 pm
Funny how the price of their labor drops by 75% but the price of their cars never does

**********************************************

This of course isn’t true. Adjusted for inflation and content, cars are wild bargains compared to a couple of decades ago.

I remember when my dad bought his 1992 Oldsmobile Cutlass Supreme when it was new. He paid $25,000 out the door – a considerable amount below the optimistic sticker price GM had set for it. This car had steel wheels with hubcaps, ABS that barely worked (and in fact failed within a year or two), no airbags, and was built poorly enough that the digital odometer wasn’t set up to read 200,000 km – after 199,999 it forever just read “Error.” It was thoroughly ragged and rusted out by 225,000, including the time the brakes failed when I drove it down the street, and an electronic climate control that defaulted to blowing full heat with no way of shutting off. With 140 hp it was lucky to pull off 0-60 in under 10 seconds.

By comparison my 2015 Mazda 3 cost $26,000, is considerably quicker (0-60 in under 8 seconds), vastly more fuel efficient, has a host of safety features that didn’t exist in 1992, including electronic stability control and 6 airbags. Sat nav, a vastly better stereo, Bluetooth, heated seats, 16″ aluminum wheels, handling and brakes that are in another league, automatic windshield wipers, keyless ignition, security system, and a promise of much better reliability and durability.

That’s really not bad considering the nominal price is nearly the same after 23 years of inflation! Inflation adjusted, that Oldsmobile cost $37,000 in 2015 dollars, so 40% more than my superior Mazda.

#126 Nick B on 12.09.18 at 12:45 pm

I can tell you have a union friendly slant to you which is not surprise. Businesses will move production to where in most efficient and government agreements and policies should get out of the way. Let free markets decide how this should play out. Requiring higher wages for auto workers just increases the cost of a car, penalize the many for the sake of a few. It’s sad. Not using the automated teller is not going to save any jobs, do you also not use automated bank teller machines or online banking. Good luck with that. You can thank central bank policy of 2% annual inflation for causing the need for wages to constantly increase to keep up with living costs. Deflation in prices can be good thing for many reasons and the BIS has reports which support this. Just my views.

#127 TalkingPie on 12.09.18 at 12:57 pm

It’s no surprise that aircraft pilot is a profession in demand in Canada. In fact, I know a lawyer at IATA who’s told me that planners are nearly in tears due to the impending shortage. A quick Google search will reveal dozens of articles about the issue.

Pilots spend $60,000+ for their training, which takes years. Then they have to work their first jobs for barely over minimum wage to build hours. If all goes well they’ll eventually get hired by a big airline like Air Canada, where they’ll spend their first year or two making less money than some of the flight attendants serving drinks on the plane that they’re flying. It’s a very long road with the hopes that at the end of their career they’ll make the big bucks and pension to make it all worthwhile. Indeed, at the end they can make $200k+, but it’s a lot of risk to take for a payoff that may never come, especially since we don’t know when the next aviation downturn will come or what will happen with automation in the next decade or two.

All the while the airlines in Canada are publicly in denial about the shortage and continue to claim that there are vastly more applications than jobs to fill. You’ll note that the word “qualified” isn’t in that statement.

#128 Vampire studies on 12.09.18 at 1:17 pm

Lots of good thoughtful comments on this topic.

If we look at the last couple of centuries, we will see
many occupations eliminated, replaced, or reduced
over time spans of years or decades. Excavators replacing labourers, power saws reducing the number of tree fallers, etc. But we cannot argue that the standard of living did not improve over that time, or even over those shorter time spans.

I find Ryan’s stand against self-checkouts somewhat hypocritical, as many of the companies he would find to
be good investments have probably trimmed workforces
considerably, and continue to seek ways to increase efficiency and productivity.

#129 KLNR on 12.09.18 at 1:19 pm

@#88 Flip Jones on 12.09.18 at 7:04 am
The Trudeau economy is failing . Liberal globalists are flushing Canadian jobs down the toilet purposefully and replacing them with newly minted civil servants who are otherwise unemployable. The coming election will pit citizens against the UN . How many bodies can Trudeau stuff into the growing politicaly potent ghettos? If you don’t have a yellow vest, buy one, the end run by your armed civil servants disguised as “Antifa” should have tuned you in to the Trudeau Plan.
_________________

LOL

#130 Crazyfox on 12.09.18 at 1:29 pm

#94 Ryan Lewenza on 12.09.18 at 8:28 am

As the economy worsens, more and more will like Trump less and less. Its interesting watching the suburbs reject Republicans in the midterms while rural areas stick with Trump but then, when one realizes where Fox news is watched in the U.S. its not so hard to understand why.

An interesting year is shaping up. The Muller investigation should make its findings public at some point. The question is, if there is provable evidence of crimes and Russian collusion by the Trump campaign/WH, will the Republican dominated senate still have 34 seats of support out of 53 to keep him in office regardless of what should be blatant impeachable offenses… that is the question.

There are a lot of dots to connect out there making it hard to speculate on outcomes and timelines but some things are quite clear at this point. The high WH turnover, the elevated public levels of debt from tax cuts, the long term problems from Trump WH deregulation, the damage to trade and international relations from foreign policy, the scandals, corruption and bigotry, and if treason can be proven especially, we are looking at what is likely the worst U.S. WH since U.S. confederation. The longer Trump remains, the worse off the world will be for it including North American economies.

#131 Heloguy on 12.09.18 at 2:01 pm

“There is only one job on the list that makes more money than an Oshawa GM worker.”

And therein lies the problem. Unskilled workers making what a registered nurse makes. Surprised it wasn’t shuttered years ago. Unions caused this problem. Too many workers thinking they are relevant and irreplaceable.

#132 Ryan Made A Good Point on 12.09.18 at 2:15 pm

In order to offset these changes one must reset their life going forward. This can only be obtained with two elements at play. The first is to supply a present and future demand for employment by selecting education at a community college for example and enroll in a specific trade program where a demand for a skill will be needed to earn a living. The second thing one must consider is relocating elsewhere, whereby the cost of living is more affordable.

#133 Alternative Education on 12.09.18 at 2:23 pm

https://uoit.ca/
This is a very complex website that has everything, and includes futuristic employment courses; not to mention an array of standard academic courses of study. Now those who have children in High School, this is a must for discussion like none other.

#134 T on 12.09.18 at 2:31 pm

Buddy

We are the largest (large machining and fab) company in Canada. We pay our welders $30 an hour base and most machininst we pay $40+ an hour. Plus over time.

We have an actual registered school in our company more comprehensive than any other company in Canada. Yes. We are not a training center but accredited by the ministries of colleges and university. An 18 year old will come out debt free making 100K a year before he is 25. We used to be able to find students. No sweat. Classes are 4 kids to ONE teacher. Not so much now. Nobody wants in cause of idiotic education that spews “university” as the silver bullet. or working for google.

Well we are now expanding yet again. And have been for 5 decades. We are capitalizing on the us manufacturing base (trained workers) that is now-non existent.

The key is not drill holes in doughnuts and hope you are set for life.
Take a second look at windsor where you came from. And ask how the tool and die/mold guys are doing.

#135 Dave on 12.09.18 at 2:53 pm

In BC all the hig paying jobs are still in construction. Things maybe slowing down but for now all trades are still in demand

#136 Lost...but not leased on 12.09.18 at 2:59 pm

Re: Ontario , manufacturing and job losses.

Sorry,but this was inevitable.
Auto industry in Canada was subsidized since DAY ONE.

As a member of the British Commonwealth…we were able to export to other Commonwealth nations…The US created the Auto Pact as a means to enter this market.

In addition, the Maritimes was once the industrial hub of Canada, till various administration did their usual @ss kiss of Central Canada and this hub “moved ” East.

Of course Pierre Trudeau simply made it more than obvious with such things as NEP and creation of Petro Canada, with East exploiting the West on par with US North versus US South in 1800’s.

Therefore…unless there is another massive whack of “subsidy”….the writing is embedded in the wall.

#137 Johnny Biscotti on 12.09.18 at 3:03 pm

The future is bright. I am telling my teenager about two surefire occupations. Funeral director or accountant. Death and taxes a no brainer.

#138 Interesting on 12.09.18 at 3:06 pm

#134 T – I was in a restaurant having lunch back in the early 2000’s with a friend. The waitress was a young lady and it came up in discussion that she was going shortly to a welding school. I asked her why, and she replied that she loved the idea, and jobs were plentiful at the time. She was so excited about the future, and forget the time frame, but maybe 6 months, so said how much – $15,000, and that was a lot, but she didn’t care, and all was well which was fine.

#139 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.09.18 at 3:09 pm

@#110
” Almost all of my friends work 6-7 days a week. Most with decent jobs. Almost all with part time or moon lighting gigs……stop with with the stupid stereotypes already.”
+++++

Pot meet kettle
If your friends had “good jobs” then why work 6-7 days a week and moonlight?

As for the “stupid stereotypes” …well, you were half right though not on the “stereotypes”.
We’re not talking Starbucks Barristas or Flagmen here slick.
The jobs involve dirt, sweat and noise for a starting minimum $25 buck/hr to start. If you cant hack it we don’t want you.
I hire and fire for my company and EVERY other business manager I talk to in the industrial construction sector has the same beef. …. the kids cant hack it and they either quit or are fired within the first 2 weeks….
I tolerated one 28 year old manchild for 3 months because we were extremely busy ( late everyday at least 15 minutes to an hour and a half OR he just pulled a “no show” without a heads up call with others waiting for and counting on him. He might have been on time 5 days out of three months and couldn’t have cared less. “I slept in” and shrugged as he sauntered into work. The kid loved to stand around and talk, always quick with the excuses as to why he couldnt do a job. His parents let him drive the family BMW to work since he had no “ride”. Lives at home. Mommy packed his lunch every day…… The last straw was a “no show” on an extremely important job with a deadline for the next day…..fired. 3 weeks later his daddy phoned to ask why he was “laid off”……….. The others will just work one day and never show up again OR ( my favourite) find a place to hide so they can sleep…….
Great “work ethic” these kids have now MF…it took Boomers decades to figure out how to screw the pooch. These kids show up already lazy.

As I said, we need a prolonged, brutal recession to refocus our overly indulged youth.
OR Increase the immigration labour force…either way the bratz are out of work….
I’m not here to hold hands. Im here to get a job done and if you cant do it . I’ll get someone who can.

“You showed up on time two days in a row!….Good Job!” Yeesh.

#140 Stan Brooks on 12.09.18 at 3:33 pm

#119 Shawn Allen on 12.09.18 at 11:53 am

Forget the numbers.
The important part is what it buys you.

Can the average family have 2 kids, educate them, live decent life style, buy a house at current prices or ever retire?

The answer to the above is no/to all counts.

Nothing else matters.
You can shove these Poloz pesos statistics you know where.

Go to the closest grocery or department store and see what is made in Canada. Almost nothing.

GDP is misleading (the more you spend on credit, the highest the GDP), look at NNP instead.

You are the perfect example of a brainwashed sheeple.
Write all those statements you made on a board and go to Jane and Finch area in Toronto to explain to the people how lucky they are and see what happens.

The wealth of a nation is reversely proportional to the numbers of fast credit shops.

#141 Fish on 12.09.18 at 3:51 pm

Pensions and retirement
Retirement planning, public and registered pensions, RRSPs, RRIFs, retirement income calculator

https://www.canada.ca/en/services/finance/pensions.html

#142 acdel on 12.09.18 at 4:28 pm

With all the happenings in this crazy world of ours this is actually a cool story. Enjoy your Sunday dawgs!

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/amish-in-manitoba-1.4937694

#143 Shawn Allen on 12.09.18 at 4:37 pm

Angry Stan at 140 is angry about the average GDP per person facts.

He is correct of course that not every Canadian is well off.

After all, fully half of Canadians are less well off than average. That’s 18.35 million people! Stan is far from alone. Some have nothing.

But many Canadians are out there contributing to a pretty healthy GDP per capita as my numbers demonstrate. Somehow, someway, in spite of all the negatives, the economy produces quite a bounty.

#144 Evangeline on 12.09.18 at 5:14 pm

#73 Barb

I liked your comments about non Canadian textiles and I feel exactly the same way.

#145 MaxBerniersShorrs on 12.10.18 at 12:49 pm

I’m surprised at this, if it was 1950 would you be lamenting how many people had left toiling in farmers fields behind?