Walking it back

Stocks have been going down. Bonds shooting up. Yields are falling. Central banks are walking back. Things have been evolving quickly over the last few days. And you can bet some of those 2019 events mentioned here yesterday have a pretty fair chance of taking place.

As Canada enters an election year the economy’s starting to limp, which scares T2 more than a call from Donald Trump. GM was a blow. Bombardier, too. Ford may be coming. But mostly this is a story about oil. Our crude crashed in price and was only rescued when Alberta said it was curtailing production. But because oil is our biggest export, selling less of it isn’t exactly a brilliant move.

Now housing is wobbling badly. Look at poor Van.

Sales last month were the worst in a decade, down 42% year/year and 35% lower than the ten-year average. But that’s just one piece of the story. Listings have exploded – ahead more than 40% from this time last year. And now the real estate board has admitted what every seller knows – prices are tumbling. They have fallen up to 7% in the past six months, while the benchmark Frankenumber is down 6.5% from this time last year.

The reason: Average people can’t afford average houses. Prices are still stupid, mortgage credit has been squeezed and mortgage rates have gone up. Add in an idiotic layer of taxes by the anti-house cabal now running the province, and you have all the elements for a tumble.

Even in the Kingdom of 6ix, things are not cool.

The Toronto market took its biggest plop last month since the Spring. Sales crashed from the previous month by the greatest amount in eight months. Prices dipped an annualized 5% in November. And unlike YVR, where sellers are scrambling to get out, in the GTA listings have dropped 26% from last year. As the number of houses on the market falls faster than the overall sales total it underscores just how much the cost of borrowing has chased off buyers. Less inventory should bring higher prices. But now when the moisters have been frozen out.

Well, our bankers are watching this. Not happy dudes, suddenly. The trade deal with Trump has not lifted steel or aluminum tariffs, and sure didn’t help us with GM. The Alberta oil cap is just a stopgap measure, and maybe a bad one since it scares off new investment bucks. And if the Trump Bump is over in the States – as the stock and bond markets have been hinting – then a stalling-out of that economy could mean we go into reverse.

So, of course, the Bank of Canada did not raise rates this week. And after what the bankers had to say on Wednesday our dollar fell, bond prices (and bond ETFs) jumped higher, the yields bond pay dropped and the markets seriously reduced the odds of a rate increase in January. Meanwhile in the US, the president’s ‘awesome deal’ with China has been sloughed off as hyperbole and markets are pricing in two more interest rates hikes (not four), and a slowdown in 2020.

Whether this happens or not is unknown. But Mr. Market is a capricious dude, able to turn on a dime, change its opinion in mere moments and be completely unapologetic for it. Those investors who have balanced and diversified portfolios with a nice little pile of the right kind of bonds are seeing a bounce there at the same time equities sell off. It also helps to have a low-vol vehicle for exposure to Canadian stocks, and some exposure to real estate investment trusts, which have had a great year. Diversification. It works. Going all-stock is gambling. Wear your asbestos undies.

Government bond yields plop, bond prices rip

So Government of Canada bond yields have retreated seriously. It looks like we’ll get two more rate hikes in 2019, then the bankers will be done. But even adding just 50 bips to the cost of loans, mortgages and HELOCs will keep housing on the ropes (sales are falling 80% of Canadian markets), and put pressure on the feds to ‘do something.’ As mentioned yesterday, that could come in the form of insurable 30-year mortgages, CMHC coverage for properties over a million and a cap on the stress test.

Suck and blow. Gas, brake, gas. It’s getting increasingly tough to have confidence in our leaders. With real estate still largely unaffordable and the economy softening, is this really the time to be encouraging even more household debt?

Just to get some votes and be in power?

You can tell I made a lousy politician.

150 comments ↓

#1 Rob on 12.06.18 at 4:29 pm

But a great blogger

First!

#2 Dave on 12.06.18 at 4:32 pm

With Huawei CFO headed for big trouble and China to punish western nations in retaliation…whats next?
Expensive Goods from china = higher interest rates

#3 bsallergy on 12.06.18 at 4:33 pm

I used to say beware of selfservatives in search of a majority, now we need to beware of fauxselfservatives in search of a majority. What ever happened to the days of responsible government?

#4 Ustabe on 12.06.18 at 4:33 pm

And its not just us, here, in Canada.

Go to any news aggregator and skim the headlines…world wide, country after country, there are major issues. Some geopolitical, some climate, some just pure evil…its everywhere.

We need a distraction…I hesitate to ponder what that could be…and who it will be starting one.

https://www.kxan.com/news/investigations/man-loses-home-after-bastrop-county-leader-plants-no-trespassing-sign/1637084874?utm_source=fark&utm_medium=website&utm_content=link&ICID=ref_fark

#5 Nat on 12.06.18 at 4:36 pm

Please go back into politics you are too smart for your own good. We need you Garth!

#6 Frank The Tank on 12.06.18 at 4:42 pm

I recently changed from a 80-20 to a balanced 60-40. Glad I did. I know I have many years left to invest, but 60-40 eases the volatility and thus is probably going to make me a better long term investor.

#7 n1tro on 12.06.18 at 4:51 pm

…the world is coming to an end!
….for those not diversified.

#8 MF on 12.06.18 at 4:53 pm

Sorry but it was only this blog that thought rates would rise to a meaningful level. Or that the bank of Canada didn’t care about housing and were apolitical.

Most people knew it was all fake.

MF

Canadian rates have risen 5 times. Two more to come. How is that fake? Useless comment. – Garth

#9 Alistair McLaughlin on 12.06.18 at 4:54 pm

5 year GoC bonds down from 2.5% to 2.2%? A mortgage rate cut at the Big 5 is coming, regardless of what the BoC does. It won’t rescue the housing market, but that won’t stop the usual suspects from showing up here crowing “I told you so.” They need something to hang onto.

Bank do not want to cut since the mortgage business is plunging. Cuts cost them money. – Garth

#10 SmarterSquirrel on 12.06.18 at 4:55 pm

Garth,

When the equities market drops significantly, depending on if someone is an emotional investor, it may be best to follow Dr. Jones’ advice when it comes to their investment portfolio… “Don’t look at it… Shut your eyes…, don’t look at it no matter what happens!” Otherwise this could happen…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YcR9k8o4I0w&t=13s

#11 The Real Mark on 12.06.18 at 5:05 pm

Ross Kay, my hero, fortold the incredible challenges the Vancouver market currently finds itself in. If you haven’t yet heard Ross’ latest interview on howestreet you should go listen now before doing anything else. There is something about his voice I find soothing, and frankly a bit arousing.

Deflation is showing itself as I said it would. Inevitable given the debt of the world and the ongoing housing decline since 2013.

Recognize the genius I am. You personating trolls should show yourselves for who you are and apologize.

#12 crossbordershopper on 12.06.18 at 5:10 pm

investors are not being compensated for the significant variability of stock prices. Volatility is risk , and investors especially in Canada collect dividends. many stocks are trading at a reasonable dividend yield, but their stocks have bounced around for years and many are at the same place they were years ago. My point is simple if i invest in Bank of Nova Scotia, (i can input 100 more names, all the same) of Tier 1 Canadian companies, that are trading at the same price they were 5 years ago. What do we get for going on a wild ride, 4.25 percent div.
I have a meridian savings account that gives 3.15%, sure only for 6 months, but in six months you shop around, Oaken Financial, etc all giving no brainer interest at near the same div return (putting the tax credit aside, TFSA sheltered account etc) . Simple question. why are investors not being compensated for the volatility risk they should be paid but are not. Major Issue for people, crazy ride for many people for what a few extra points, thats why immigrants buy real estate.
even if prices do move, they are sticky and dont move up and down 2 percent a day because someone said something around the world.

#13 AFD on 12.06.18 at 5:23 pm

Is there any good news on Canada’s horizon or are we going to suffer for 15 years… (well 25 if TSX continues sideways)

#14 oakville sucks on 12.06.18 at 5:25 pm

I just sold the remainder of my Canadian ETF’s and bought more American and Global ETF’s.

Since last spring (on this board) I’ve been calling for a recession in Canada starting early next year.

Furthermore, the FAKE NEWS will tell you about it in another years time.

#15 AGuyInVancouver on 12.06.18 at 5:31 pm

And why is it “Average people can’t afford average houses” in Vancouver? Who was snapping them up over the last 5 years?
Enquiring minds want to know.

#16 Kreditanstalt on 12.06.18 at 5:32 pm

You forgot: Trudeau acting as a toady for the US imperialists doesn’t exactly inspire confidence here…as someone pointed out, arresting Huawei’s CFO is rather similar to the Chinese holding a member of Jeff Bezos’ family.

#17 RWMZ on 12.06.18 at 5:32 pm

I know this question has probably been done to death but I never see a clear answer: both stocks and bond fund ETFs go down together. My bond fund and preferred ETFs are down by like 4 years worth of dividends in the past month.

So where are these magical “bonds” you invest in that go up when other things go down, unless you’re a big fish holding the actual bonds?

#18 Mike in Airdrie on 12.06.18 at 5:38 pm

Both the banks and politicians seem to be more than happy to encourage Canadians to continue to pig out on debt and kick the can down the road.

Eventually all this debt has to be unwound which will be a massive drag on an economy based on consumer spending.

#19 Mr pragmatic on 12.06.18 at 5:38 pm

The yield curve very close to inverting . Could happen anyday now .Has predicted 9 recessions since the late 50’s. Most practical predictor of a looming recession.

A balanced portfolio will not get enough of a bump from fixed income to offset losses on the equity side.

Seems like market participants are at a party , late , with cocaine all over the table and the cops on their way.

On equity investments at your on peril

#20 The Wet One on 12.06.18 at 5:38 pm

I guess we’ll see huh Garth?

T2 doesn’t have much by way of competition though. Scheer isn’t the guy and the CPC isn’t the party. Not right now.

Canucks aren’t tired enough of T2’s schtick just yet. Maybe in another 4 years we’ll be there. Memories of Harper et. al. are still too fresh.

Thats my not so humble opinion and I’m sticking to it.

#21 Fed-Up on 12.06.18 at 5:47 pm

Garth, write a post called “Bull$hit” because that’s what the “markets” truly are… Everyone just kicking the can down the road not to upset the fake gains. (Including real-estate.)

#22 Lori Schwartz on 12.06.18 at 5:49 pm

DELETED

#23 Madcat on 12.06.18 at 5:59 pm

How is it two of the largest countries in the world with the smallest population to landmass ratios have the most out-of-control real estate prices?

#24 Doug t on 12.06.18 at 6:00 pm

Over priced – over valued – over cooked Canada – 2019 sees a slide to recession

RATM

#25 Reximus on 12.06.18 at 6:01 pm

Twittler, aka President Tariff Man, needs to shut this crazy volatility he causes with his phone, down

#26 Dolce Vita on 12.06.18 at 6:02 pm

416 RE market already shown to trail YVR’s by about 3 months (they had the same as in 416 now with low listings, few sales distorting price):

https://i.imgur.com/BLQka0C.jpg

If you look at 416 average prices over time vs. its 2017 peak price, 416 RE average price should drop $250K or about 30% to get back to the average price trendline:

https://i.imgur.com/2SYBufT.jpg

But alas, Despair during the Blow off Phase of an Asset is when the price drop undershoots the long term average or mean price (shown in the above 416 RE price chart, 4 Psychological Phases below):

https://i.imgur.com/oNInIiu.jpg

What does it all mean?

A lot of pain still to come in 416 RE price drops, a lot. Probably more than 30% due to Blow off Phase Despair and historically that’s happened in 416 RE.

Bad news today in your Blog Garth and I hope you are correct about Mr. Market turning on a dime. It does not look good for now. I hate to say it, but it will probably get worse.

#27 Guy in Calgary on 12.06.18 at 6:06 pm

Markets had a wild day today what a ride. Amazing what can happen with the Fed says they are adopting a “wait and see” approach in the USA. Stocks roar up into the close. What a crazy market these algos have created.

#28 dakkie on 12.06.18 at 6:08 pm

Canadian Oil Plummets To RECORD LOW! Natural Gas Fastest Increase Since 2008!

http://www.investmentwatchblog.com/canadian-oil-plummets-to-record-low-natural-gas-fastest-increase-since-2008/

#29 JTepic on 12.06.18 at 6:12 pm

First

#30 k on 12.06.18 at 6:18 pm

Feeling fortunate in Vancouver. Just sold our 1000 sq ft townhouse in Kits for $980,000 . A similar unit sold for $1,050,000 six months ago at the peak. $70,000 over asking. That got our interest ! Paid $600,000 5 years ago.

#31 Benjamin Hannah on 12.06.18 at 6:22 pm

They can lower the interest rate, change the underwriting rules or whatever other unnatural act they can think of to try and inflate the housing bubble again but the effect will be minimal.

Private debt to GDP is something like 267%. The proverbial credit card has already been maxed out for most people.

Time to let the housing market go down. We don’t need cater to people who borrowed obscene sums of money to bet on RE going up 15% yoy until the end of time.

#32 marcus on 12.06.18 at 6:24 pm

The extradition hearing on Friday for the Huawei CEO should be VERY interesting. Will Canada cave to China or will the collective west and the “five eyes” close ranks to reign in this giant of Chinese spycraft? President Xi stated today that “all measures” will be used to secure her release. she is also the daughter of the owner of Huawei Inc. Invest accordingly and remember knives are sharp!

#33 IHCTD9 on 12.06.18 at 6:26 pm

#147 KLNR on 12.06.18 at 3:48 pm
@#142 Howard on 12.06.18 at 2:05 pm
#138 KLNR on 12.06.18 at 12:05 pm
@#123 young & foolish on 12.06.18 at 10:15 am
Keep your eyes on France for upcoming social developments ….
_____________________________

France is the worst for not letting immigrants actually integrate.

——————————————

Is that so?

Well I’m an expat in France and I integrated without much difficulty. If you speak the language and respect the culture there is no issue.

The problem is more that some immigrants refuse to integrate, not that the French won’t let them.
________________________________________

I bet you’re a white dude right?
and not what I’ve read about France over the years
——-

Sure, White guys do fine, but so do East and South Asians wherever they go.

IMHO, as global migration carries on, there is a predictable trend developing in that some cultures will buckle down and make decent lives for themselves, where others have a lot more trouble doing the same.

#34 Linda on 12.06.18 at 6:27 pm

Given that the federal government has done nothing to aid Alberta, one can hardly blame them for taking a page out of the OPEC book to mitigate the losses & boost prices. Whether that move will work for any length of time is another matter. Meanwhile, Canada is now in China’s cross hairs due to our aid in the arrest of the Huawei CFO. How this will play out could be interesting. China does not like losing face & now Canada has put itself forward as a pawn in the USA/China showdown. You can bet China will not overlook that the USA grabbed one of theirs with Canada’s help. There will be retaliation. Given how 2019 is shaping up for the Canadian economy, the last thing we need is China looking to make a point using Canada as the messenger. Someone did not think this through. In the contest between elephants, the mouse gets stepped on.

#35 Ryan on 12.06.18 at 6:35 pm

I’m so glad our dearest leader is making sure he stays in the good books of late night comedians. I’m sure all this will balance itself out, right? It’s important we look after others first, before Canada gets any attention.

#36 Reality is stark on 12.06.18 at 6:35 pm

The chickens are finally coming home to roost. All we have in this country is an overpaid public sector. Once housing dissolves our disconnected populace will be running to government agencies and family courts for “justice” (money). This is how we raise our children. Those who sacrifice for a better future have their resources raided by the masses who only know how to want. Since the financial crisis welfare roles have continued to rise with a greater percentage of people refusing to look for work. Ontario has created a monster as entitlement is rising as quickly as obesity.
People who believe Venezuela cannot happen here are sadly mistaken. Expect the government collectors to become ravenous as more elected officials get into office believing that government programs are the answer.
Doug Ford and Donald Trump can temporarily try to bring back incentive but ultimately our society is dominated by bureaucratic socialists who want to kill us all with kindness. It is an inevitable slow death.

#37 What do you think of ... on 12.06.18 at 6:35 pm

The Bank of Canada stated this week that they would be ‘entering’ the securitized mortgage bond market for THE FIRST TIME EVER (as BUYERS of course).

They will be buying CMHC insured mortgage portfolios and CMHC insurance “wrapped” (guaranteed) securitized mortgage portfolios from banks and other lenders like HCG.

Quoted ‘providing liquidity’ as the motive.

This is the BoC doing this, not some pension fund !

The BoC is going to print money to buy those securitized mortgages !

The mechanism is now in place to quietly QE if/when CMHC or the banks run into liquidity issues.

They have shown their hand.

#38 James on 12.06.18 at 6:38 pm

Telling people what they need to hear vs what they want to hear is always a tough sell. Thanks for trying anyway Garth.

#39 Reximus on 12.06.18 at 6:38 pm

The yield curve very close to inverting . Could happen anyday now .Has predicted 9 recessions since the late 50’s. Most practical predictor of a looming recession.

—–

And just as many inversions did not lead to a recession

#40 You know on 12.06.18 at 6:43 pm

As mentioned here before “nobody can suck and blow at the same time”.. .but T2 has a hard head and and does not love his country….at the end of his term he will be working side by side with Ben Mulroney on e talk (ITS WHAT T2 WANTS…TO ENJOY THE GOOD LIFE)… if only his good father could see him now. WHAT A JOKE. Trump called the Ace card a nation buster…well we have T2…its going to be a double whammy….DUCK EVERYONE!

#41 Reximus on 12.06.18 at 6:46 pm

Feeling fortunate in Vancouver. Just sold our 1000 sq ft townhouse in Kits for $980,000 . A similar unit sold for $1,050,000 six months ago at the peak. $70,000 over asking. That got our interest ! Paid $600,000 5 years ago.

—-

Curious K: why did you sell it? was it your home, and you are moving elsewhere?

#42 Bill Grable on 12.06.18 at 6:47 pm

“You can tell I made a lousy politician”.

I disagree.

You were a fine example to anyone who reaches the stratosphere in Ottawa…..and simply works his face off. They treated you shabbily…because of jealousy and the fact you TOLD THE TRUTH.

If only we had more people like you in Government, we would not be facing some of the mess we are in.

Bravo Zulu, Mr. Turner!

#43 Harry on 12.06.18 at 6:57 pm

S&P is down 0.15% today.

oh noes.

#44 joblo on 12.06.18 at 6:57 pm

Alberta under Jason Kenney needs to set up and collect its own taxes ala Qbeck.
Then they have some leverage.
or join the good ol USA.
Staying in this “Post Nation State” is useless!

#45 Cow Man on 12.06.18 at 7:00 pm

Sir Garth:

You may, as you say have been a “lousy politician”; but you were still the best MP we ever had elected in the Region of Halton. That too is a qualifying statement I guess.

#46 Deception on 12.06.18 at 7:01 pm

#34 Linda – Maybe they did think it through. This reminds me of the twitter war with Saudi which was a prepared event. The trigger was they had a Canadian citizen now from two weeks before that was a member of the family in Saudi. The timing was perfect to further advance the agenda for human rights once again against Saudi. One never knows does one! I do not believe in a coincidence anymore.

#47 Clock Puncher on 12.06.18 at 7:04 pm

Wouldn’t it be nice to be a fly on the wall at tomorrow’s big meeting with the country’s political leaders all assembled ? Who cries first ? I think we all know the answer to that one. Gone with the wind….

#48 Smartalox on 12.06.18 at 7:22 pm

Let’s play spot the Euphanism:

BC Property Assessments will be more ‘moderate’ in 2019

https://vancouversun.com/business/real-estate/b-c-s-property-assessments-more-moderate-in-2019

After years of dramatic increases in B.C.’s property assessments, this year they will likely be more moderate, with some Vancouver homes going down in value.

The soon-to-be-released 2019 property assessments are based on what was happening in the real estate market as of July 1.

B.C. Assessment says some Metro detached single-family homes were showing decreases in value of five to 10 per cent over last year, including in areas of Vancouver, the North Shore, South Surrey, White Rock, South Delta and Richmond.

Timeline of future events:
– Jan 8th: homeowners open BC assessment letters
– Jan 10th: homeowners open letters from HELOC lenders, demanding repayment
– Jan 11th: Holiday Credit Card Bills arrive.
– Jan 12th: listings spike
– Jan, Feb, March: few sales. Rate Hike.
– End of March: listings cancelled. Banks getting antsy for owners 90+ days in arrears.
– April: listings spike. More Price Reductions.
– April, May June: few sales.
– July 1: Housing Values Assessed for BC Assessment

#49 Sebee on 12.06.18 at 7:24 pm

Garth,

If you were to guess odds on 2% stress test roll back, what would it be? I thought the bankers liked the stress test?

And 30 year mortgage odds?

Thanks for the betting stats!

#50 k on 12.06.18 at 7:24 pm

The CFO of HUAWEI getting detained in Vancouver and extradited to New York is due to the HSBC regulators findings of suspicious account activity and possible money laundering. Do you want the West to turn a blind eye to such activities ? Canada is not a pawn for the USA.The rule of law is important to the western powers. Not so much for China. Meng’s father started the company with $1500 dollars. Do you think it helped him to become a multi billionaire by being an army engineer with close connections to party leaders ? Remember George Orwell’s book “Animal Farm ” [China today } ” All animals are created equal . Except some are more equal than others” Good ol’ Capitalist for the leaders and bread crumbs for the masses.

#51 espressobob on 12.06.18 at 7:26 pm

Mr. Market is having a little hissy fit. When prices go lower the safer it is to buy. Volatility is good.

#52 Long-Time Lurker on 12.06.18 at 7:26 pm

That german shepherd looks like my dog from when I was a kid. Kids and dogs are the perfect combination.

#53 Pepito on 12.06.18 at 7:30 pm

Reximus on 12.06.18 at 6:38 pm
The yield curve very close to inverting . Could happen anyday now .Has predicted 9 recessions since the late 50’s. Most practical predictor of a looming recession.

—–

And just as many inversions did not lead to a recession
__________________

Evidence or source for both of these assertions?

#54 Joe Schmoe on 12.06.18 at 7:31 pm

I watched JT’s unscripted G20 interview on a non-North American news site.

first comment under the article: ” what the hell was that?” from a non-Canadian.

JT confuses people of many languages and backgrounds.

#55 Blue collar blues! on 12.06.18 at 7:35 pm

With pending job loss at the Bombardier facility. Combined with the Downsview lands being sold for housing development for tomorrow’s Ontario housing capital! Then the pending Carmigedion hitting the Shawa and 3,000 employees between G.M workers and in-house contract employees all making a living wage get the heave ho. Where’s the opportunities for working stiffs that buy cars, houses, cottages, atv’s….all the other assorted toys that promote all the trappings of success? How’s the stock market going to preform. Where’s the money coming from to drive growth? Better yet, how will house prices keep there inflated value in and around the GTA and other back waters. If I was a betting man I’d be thinking the best days are over. T2 removal won’t stop this train wreck coming. Oh….don’t for get the sub plants like A.G Simpson and the massive supply chain of companies that support production of the Bombers products. Mind you commuting along the 4 nothing 1 might be easier with less people. Merry Christmas.

#56 k on 12.06.18 at 7:36 pm

# 41 Reximus

Feeling fortunate in Vancouver. Just sold our 1000 sq ft townhouse in Kits for $980,000 . A similar unit sold for $1,050,000 six months ago at the peak. $70,000 over asking. That got our interest ! Paid $600,000 5 years ago.
—-
Curious K: why did you sell it? was it your home, and you are moving elsewhere?

Interesting you ask ! Most of my friends say “What will you do ?” My wife and I have no kids …are in our sixties and have done the “Take the profit” thing about 10 times over 30 years in the Vancouver market. That works out to about 2 million over the years. Not bragging …just answering your question. We will probably rent for the next few years. Who knows…we might buy it back for $600,000 4 years from now ! Cheers k

#57 Brian Ripley on 12.06.18 at 7:54 pm

Look at poor Van… …Toronto market took its biggest plop

My chart comparing Vancouver and Toronto housing is up:
http://www.chpc.biz/compare-toronto–vancouver.html

Toronto’s market is much bigger and more active than Vancouver’s and yet Vancouver sellers are still getting prices that are 20-50% more than Toronto sellers.

Drug dealers prefer the more temperate climate I guess.

TOR has 1.3 x more Listings than VAN
TOR has 3.9 x more Sales than VAN

Total Inventory Sold Each Month
TOR sells 38% – VAN sells 13%

Total Months of Inventory
TOR has 2.6 months – VAN has 7.6 months

VAN SFD is valued 49% higher than a TOR SFD
10 year inflation rate of SFDs VAN: 125% TOR: 120%

VAN T-House is valued 26% higher than a TOR T-House
VAN Condo is valued 20% higher than a TOR Condo

#58 the Jaguar on 12.06.18 at 7:56 pm

Agree with #32 & #34 Marcus and Linda.
The arrest of the Huawei executive is a very big story.
Bigger than Jesus as Lennon said. The publication ban is especially interesting. Guess it allows a little time for the government of China to come up with a strategy on how to spin and win.

#59 acdel on 12.06.18 at 7:56 pm

What a bloodbath in the stock market in the past few days. Good! Macron is running scared, hopefully this trend continues.

As Garth mentioned many times before, hang on.

I predict that those green vests of France will be a hot seller in the West in the near future, times are changing.

#60 AK on 12.06.18 at 7:57 pm

“Meanwhile in the US, the president’s ‘awesome deal’ with China has been sloughed off as hyperbole and markets are pricing in two more interest rates hikes (not four), and a slowdown in 2020.”
=====================================
I can see a slowdown in 2021, but no way it’s happening in 2020, while President Trump is on the campaign trail.

#61 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.06.18 at 8:04 pm

@#30 k
“Paid $600,000 5 years ago.”
+++++

Very well done. You dodged the worst of it. Gotta luv greaterfools ;)

#62 45north on 12.06.18 at 8:04 pm

Suck and blow. Gas, brake, gas. It’s getting increasingly tough to have confidence in our leaders. With real estate still largely unaffordable and the economy softening, is this really the time to be encouraging even more household debt?

Just to get some votes and be in power?

You can tell I made a lousy politician.

The problems with the housing market cannot be papered over. They are fundamental problems and require fundamental answers. Mr Dress-up is not the man for the job.

Two men come to mind: Winston Churchill in Great Britain and Franklin Roosevelt in the United States. Both men were out of power after the First World War – they were in a kind of political wilderness. They survived and went on to lead their nations out of the depression and to victory against the Axis Powers in the Second World War.

I cannot see Justin Trudeau surviving the wilderness. And neither can he.

#63 Kelly on 12.06.18 at 8:06 pm

Love that 630 point recovery on the Dow today.
The PPT was working hard after lunch.

Hopefully, Mr Ford got T2 to reset the agenda for first minister’s talk back to Canada.

I have never lived under such poor leadership. T2 is a disgrace to this fine nation.

#64 Robert Ash on 12.06.18 at 8:09 pm

It is interesting to me that only one Blogger noticed the fact that the Bank of Canada, is entering a QE phase, which they are if they inject liquidity into the Government Coffers, by Purchasing Mortgage Backed Assets, in a consolidated/collaterized form… This is a real sign that the Gov., is trying another tool, in their toolbox, to manage, the Long term Credit markets… So our Currency is being devalued, with low interest rate maintenance and we are printing money, and the Libs have even tried a Policy Amendment, via the 14 Billion of incentives in latest Fiscal Update, last month… the only tool left is Austerity, and then Management or Redistribution of Wealthier folks, assets, or maybe just a shot in the dark… It is more scary the possible outcomes, in an Election year… almost upon us… Here are the four things that Policy makers can do, to avoid a Long Term Credit market Debt Crisis… 1) Austerity 2) Debt/Defaults Restructuring 3) Print Money.. Purchase Bonds from CMHC 4) Transfers of Money from those whom have more than they need to others…Scary… EH? I vote JT tries the Austerity option, and reduces Spending.. but that isn’t the slant today… Anyones guess, but add up the Options, not employed presently.

#65 AGuyInVancouver on 12.06.18 at 8:12 pm

#143 gattaca on 12.06.18 at 1:58 pm
Arrest of Huawei exec is going send a chill to Chinese real estate buyers in Canada.

Since Canada appears to kowtowing to US interests, Canada as a safer haven view will crumble.
_ _ _
Awesome! That’s fantastic news.

#66 k on 12.06.18 at 8:15 pm

#36 reality is stark You nailed it pal ! And all the kids think Socialism is great ! Until you run out of other peoples money !

#67 april on 12.06.18 at 8:17 pm

5pm Global news. ?? According to Ross Kay the housing market moves “en masse” so don’t be fooled by some gal from CMHC saying some areas up or stable while others are going down. Lies, lies, lies… typical of that industry.

#68 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.06.18 at 8:22 pm

“All I want for Christmas is my old job back, my old job back……”

British PM May decided to “double down” and go for broke…..

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu/rejecting-suggestions-of-delay-pm-mays-team-says-brexit-vote-will-go-ahead-idUSKBN1O511O

#69 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.06.18 at 8:27 pm

@#33 IHCTD9
“as global migration carries on, there is a predictable trend developing in that some cultures will buckle down and make decent lives for themselves, where others have a lot more trouble doing the same.”
+++++

Reminds me of a conversation I had with a French citizen visiting Canada during our last “seperation scare”.
“Why does Quebec want to leave Canada ?”, He asked.
My Quebecois friends proceeded to give him all their reasons for leaving Canada and the last one was immigration.
He laughed and said, ” Well, if you only want french speaking immigrants. France has 7 million they will send you…..”

crickets…..

#70 yvr_lurker on 12.06.18 at 8:29 pm

#12 crossboarder

I agree completely with what you have written. In late August decided to open tangerine account with extra $$$ outside main pension plan. Was not clear what to do at the time, but in retrospect it was a really good short-term move. When the 6 month expires in January will stuff it somewhere else at 3.xx percent (whatever that may be) and then re-evaluate at the end of next summer. I expect that the market will be on a roller coaster ride going nowhere for the next while…. until there appears to be more stability I am happy to be collecting my 3.xx percent and every month can still sock more extra cash away…. Main DC pension plan, fully balanced, is down 2.5% since September…..

#71 arfmoocat on 12.06.18 at 8:39 pm

The DOW had given back all it’s 2018 gains today before it roared back.

#72 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.06.18 at 8:42 pm

@#156 nitro1
“700 students arrested…good luck trying to find the news on google”
++++

Mere “Students” in the middle of a rock throwing, car burning, tear gas engulfed ….Parisian riot…..riiiiiiight.

As a cop said to me many years ago during the first Kelowna riots…..” As far as we’re concerned, if your here watching, you’re fair game.”
We left, other friends stayed to “watch” and were arrested.

#73 Parksville Prankster on 12.06.18 at 8:48 pm

@17 RWMZ on 12.06.18 at 5:32 pm

“I know this question has probably been done to death but I never see a clear answer: both stocks and bond fund ETFs go down together. My bond fund and preferred ETFs are down by like 4 years worth of dividends in the past month.

So where are these magical “bonds” you invest in that go up when other things go down, unless you’re a big fish holding the actual bonds?”

I feel your pain, but four months of volatility in a long term investing horizon is simply a rounding error. Set up your weightings, then go enjoy life – checking buy /sell prices in the short term will only serve to drive you into the arms of “helpers”, that will be more than willing to do the balancing for you (and charge a fee for services of course), which only continues to drag on overall long term returns. The market will give what the market gives, no more, no less, minus any fees or trading charges. The largest hurdle most investors will face is not the fees however, but the guy/gal staring back in the mirror. Selling and buying at the absolute worst times is the hallmark of Newbie DIY Investors. In that case, hand over your moola to someone you can trust, for the minimum fee and let them do it for you. Emotion and investing rarely go well together.

#74 tccontrarian on 12.06.18 at 9:16 pm

#121 Tater on 12.06.18 at 9:23 am

———-
Wow. Need to take a screen shot of this. Probably the worst non-TCContrarian take I’ve seen in this comment section.
++++++

Tater…the kind of guy (or whatever gender pronoun you go by), that I’d like to meet in person – just to see what an ‘internet jerk’ looks like.
I know you mocked the TLT buy a few weeks ago – well, FYI, I sold it all today at ~$119, for a small gain (+dividend) – not bad, as everyone else it seems, was in panic mode (you as well?)
I still think the worst has yet to come – what we’ve exprienced this year is the first stage of a crushing bear market, that (very) few are prepared for.
{Just as in the RE market, the ‘fun’ is just beginning. There’s a long way down to 3-4 times gross-family income – a ratio I’m sticking with.}
Call me crazy but I can’t see how you fix problems created by easy credit, by providing access to more credit (ie debt). Something’s got to give!

For those that haven’t noticed, precious metals have been acting as they usually do (and should), during times of uncertainty – the ‘anti-stock’ trade some call it. And in the Trump/Trade War/Currency War era, I think these are indeed, very uncertain times.
So, and dear Titer-Tater, I’ll be sure to post something especially fitting for you, but only when the SP500 has lost 50% or more. Don’t worry, this won’t be happening any time soon. Mr. Market needs to convince the majority of participants that “all’s well, stay invested”.
The Santa-Claus rally is ahead which will likely carry well into 2019…then be ready for another ‘October-like’ event, just when everything looked ‘normal’.

TCC

ps. I hope Garth isn’t a Grinch with my post! :)

Too funny to delete. – Garth

#75 arfmoocat on 12.06.18 at 9:20 pm

Liepert rips Trudeau

https://www.facebook.com/AndrewScheerMP/videos/593368854433674/UzpfSTEyMDY5MzE3MTI5Nzc3NzpWSzo1OTMzNjg4NTQ0MzM2NzQ/

#76 young & foolish on 12.06.18 at 9:48 pm

Mr. Market is breaking my heart :(

#77 Air Pocket on 12.06.18 at 9:53 pm

#75 tccontrarian – Do not have a hissy fit because its just all an air pocket. One night I flew to Windsor, Ontario for the first time. All of a sudden the jet engines began to roar and the plane was going down. I grabbed the lady beside me saying we are going to crash, and she just laughed at me shaking in fear. I was informed later that it happens in this area often because of a Lake Erie effect.

#78 viorelli on 12.06.18 at 10:07 pm

The slide in real estate values will only accelerate in the near future, unless its commercial, fully leased and in a good location. Many people here in YVR are barely making ends meet, even if their house is mortgage free. Many retirees have insufficient savings, low pensions, and an ever increasing property tax and insurance bill. An average home in Kerrisdale is now facing $7.000 – $ 10.000 yearly in city taxes alone, plus the repairs, upkeep, insurance, and rising utility bills. Soon many will face the choice: to stay warm or eat fresh food? Forget about helping your offspring, your house will not sell for what you were hoping for. The only way is to redevelop with two rental suites in a basement and a coach house in the back lane. This will provide you with some monthly cash flow, but requires quite an investment, and the tax man will want a cut of your rental income as well. Thus many are stuck in a limbo and are hoping for things to get better in the spring.

#79 Barb on 12.06.18 at 10:15 pm

#3 bsallergy on 12.06.18 at 4:33 pm

“What ever happened to the days of responsible government?”
————————————————–
Deficit government budgets should be illegal.
Permanently.
Municipal, provincial and federal.

Perhaps then qualified candidates would let their names stand.
People with 10 or 20 year plans, regardless of election terms.

#80 Drill Baby Drill on 12.06.18 at 10:25 pm

Never ever count Alberta out.

#81 IHCTD9 on 12.06.18 at 10:33 pm

#72 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.06.18 at 8:42 pm
@#156 nitro1
“700 students arrested…good luck trying to find the news on google”
++++

Mere “Students” in the middle of a rock throwing, car burning, tear gas engulfed ….Parisian riot…..riiiiiiight.

As a cop said to me many years ago during the first Kelowna riots…..” As far as we’re concerned, if your here watching, you’re fair game.”
We left, other friends stayed to “watch” and were arrested.
———-

The story is starting to make the rounds now:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6469939/Child-rioters-young-12-153-arrested-SINGLE-French-high-school.html

Looks like Macron might want to acknowledge the hint and take a permanent vacation from politics…

Seems like France hasn’t had much of a break since those Charlie Hebdo shootings a few years back.

Why do they keep voting in guys like Macron?

#82 All equity portfolio is gambling ? on 12.06.18 at 10:41 pm

No it’s not Garth . It’s called investing , and it beats a 60/40 portfolio . Facts .

Have a look at the long term chart the SPY

Perhaps you were referencing a short term horizon

#83 Alberta Ed on 12.06.18 at 11:16 pm

Should be fun at the premiers’ whine and dine tomorrow. We can expect from Sock Boy “…as fine a record of knavery, cowardice and fleeing for cover as you’ll find outside the covers of Hansard” (apologies to George McDonald Fraser).

#84 The Real Mark on 12.06.18 at 11:20 pm

“#11 The Real Mark on 12.06.18 at “

Nice try, but you’re “The Real Personator”. Not The Real Mark. Seriously knock that nonsense off. Its incredibly disrespectful.

#85 Bear Capitulation on 12.06.18 at 11:23 pm

Quite the course correction yesterday with the acknowledgement that 30 year amortizations and a stress test cap are forthcoming.

As a long time bear sitting on the sidelines, I must now give full credit to the only people that knew that interest rates would stay low for more than a decade and that the government would do everything to keep the party going – that is, the realtors and development industry.

Only these uneducated, self-interested, salespersons whose greed is at the expense of the public, accurately predicted the above. And those that followed their advice, which is the vast majority of people, have gained immensely. And those that have waited, have forever fallen behind.

After a mere six months of miniscule rate increases and a stress test, the government is about to roll over – reinflating the market with a 30 year amortization and a cap to the stress test. If anyone thinks these measures will be neutral in their effect, you are naive. The 40 year amortization goosed the market huge until it was cut; and the two quarter rate cuts in 2015 goosed the market another 30-40% in the hottest markets.

I missed the run-up twice – first in 2009 when everyone screamed watch out for 80’s style interest rate increases, and I was eventually pushed out of a major due to unaffordable houses despite being a top 5% income earner; and again in 2015, when interest rates were actually cut, and prices went up to 40% in my new community. In the latter, my portfolio advisors highlighted the extreme risk of buying and strongly advised that I would be renewing a potential mortgage with lower house values.

After 10 years of analyzing the market, and having a risk aversive nature that is nurtured on blogs like these, I can say that I have been wrong.

Since 2012, Carney warned of Canada’s rising debt and pending rate increases – and Canadians only gorged more on debt.

For half a decade, we have been warned that rates will be normalized at 5-6% historical levels; and then that has been walked back to a 3-4%; and now mabye less as the central banks realize what a pickle we are in.

Since 2010, we saw measures to curb the market – elimination of the 40 year/0 down; increases in down payments; a shift back to the 25 year mortage; changes in loan valuations that can be withdrawn as HELOCs; elmination of insurance for homes over a million; and on and on with mild mannered measures designed to give the illusion of trying to contain risk in an inflated housing market. All of them did nothing.

And when after only a few short months of declining sales – and not even real declining prices – we find out the government will put inflationary measures back into the market place. These measures, if implemented, are utterly abhorent, self-serving, and borderline treasonous as it creates a debt slave nation.

However, I will not miss the third wave of this bull market if these measures are implented – they will likely be put into place just before the Spring hot seling season. So when Spring comes, and inventory rises, this bear is finally joining the herd and buying. The government has tipped its hand that it will keep the punch bowl full, and the 2019 election will not change that as ALL federal parties want the keep the party going.

Only the bears have been slaughtered in this decade long bull market. The 70% of Canadians that own have made irreversable lifetime capital gains that crush the miniscule increases in balanced portfolio gains during that time – all because of leverage, emergency low rates for a decade, and governments at every level too weak to take responsible action.

Its ironic that the only provincial government still trying to reduce demand, pop the bubble, and increase affordability for the average joe, is continuously ripped apart for indiscriminate taxes and xenophobic tendencies. At least one provincial government ‘gets it’…too bad they are fighting an uphill battle against the federal government that does not get it.

You’re adroit at blaming others for your own decisions, then come here to moan about the outcome. Now you figure real estate will rise from present values, so you’re waiting for the next ‘bull market’ to buy? Sheesh. – Garth

#86 fishman on 12.06.18 at 11:46 pm

A little chill in Van town tonite. There’s a nice little ridge on the west side overlooking the city. A couple square blocks up there with only one or two originals left. Telephone girl had been buying everything that came up for 5 or 10 million or whatever. Her & her Party friends that is.Now she might be making new friends in a New York holding cell. Wonder what her friends back on the hill are thinking? Wonder if their looking out their window at the two bulls in the unmarked car down the block?
I mean you gotta love being a B.C.er. The mayhem generated from this idyllic little province lately is epic.

#87 Shawn Allen on 12.07.18 at 12:29 am

You Want More Risk Compensation? Careful What You Ask For:

#12 crossbordershopper on 12.06.18 at 5:10 pm said

[Canadian] investors are not being compensated for the significant variability of stock prices. Volatility is risk

********************************
Okay, and let’s say that is true. How can the market deliver more risk compensation? The market can’t affect earnings…

But the market can increase the risk compensation by lowering the price of stocks. That in fact is exactly what has been happening in a number of cases. Especially rate reset preferred shares. The expected dividends have not changed much but the prices are down a lot. The market decided more risk compensation was needed. Thanks for asking for that!

It can only give this compensation on a go forward basis and does so by lowering prices.

“Risk On” equals lower prices. Investors see risk and push prices lower to give a higher risk premium.

“Risk off” means higher prices. When investors have less concern about risk they need less risk premium and bid up prices on stocks and bonds.

#88 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.07.18 at 12:46 am

@#81 IHCTD9
Well.
12 year old kids throwing rocks and bottles in an anonymous mob harkens back to my youth.
And at the tender age of 12….I knew exactly what I was doing AND I knew the worst that would happen IF I was caught was …. a ride home in a police car.

As for these rioters…..If it was China…..they’d be shot and the “News” wouldnt report it……..

I’m surprised Macron hasnt declared the France version of the “War Measures Act” and started filling the jails with broken boned anarchists……
But he’s a career politician and hasnt discover his spine in a real “test” yet.
C’est la vie

#89 A Final Warning on 12.07.18 at 1:38 am

This was a docudrama filmed for television in 2003 with George Orwell on his death bed discussing the chaos in the world with a boot stamping on your face forever. His final words were, “Don’t let it happen; it depends on you.” This relates to the link that IHCTD9 put up with #81. Always remember what the PM stated about Canada being a non national state leading the way into what? We are not Canada anymore because you let him get away with it, according to his personal agenda for a new world order.

#90 Dolce Vita on 12.07.18 at 1:43 am

#15 AGuyInVancouver

You know, when you get old enough you see RE get rich quick euphoria, “FOMO” in today’s parlance, repeat over and over as the decades pass.

I agree with what you imply. We need only look in the mirror as to whom to blame for unaffordable homes.

History repeats. We get none the wiser buying things we cannot afford. Blinded by dreams of wealth and ego (I can afford more than you can) that turn into financial ruin when the economy sours.

#91 Dolce Vita on 12.07.18 at 2:21 am

Garth, this hope that Mr. Market can turn on a dime is a good one, and you being you (Unsinkable). As you wrote today the near term economy does not look good nor in the intermediate either.

The AB oil industry price problem will not be cured overnight. They need pipelines to foreign world oil price markets and that is years in the making. Lower revenues. Less export dollars.

RE takes years to completely unwind to a historic average price trend and we have just begun the unwinding process with single digit price drops from peak. People will not “feel” wealthy and spend less. The highly leveraged will be taken out of the economy for a decade or more.

Auto is in tumult. Years for that industry to change over to the electrical, ride share and autonomous vehicle demands of consumers. No large capital expenditures in the near term, white/blue collar layoffs in gasoline and diesel engine technologies.

On balance and in Canada, the highly indebted will suffer & the financially prudent will be fine.

Regardless, we will weather this economic storm as we have in the past. History repeats as does human nature. It is not different this time; rather, Same Dung Different Pile.

As you recommend, diversify and not to panic are the panacea for weathering the storm.

#92 joe calgary on 12.07.18 at 2:57 am

So housing doubles again in the next 3 yrs, stock market sucks and drops another 20% in the next 3 yrs. Another 3 yrs of all the junior Trumps telling me about the incredible investment they made leveraging themselves beyond belief. Meanwhile our govt is looking for any excuse to keep this Ponzi sheme going, to the point that I think the only way out of this debt problem will be hyperinflation.

#93 David Driven on 12.07.18 at 3:27 am

DELETED

#94 Stan Brooks on 12.07.18 at 3:37 am

BoC’s boss balls are inversely proportional to Priyanka Chopra’s wedding veil.


Bank of Canada: The economy isn’t ready for higher interest rates…yet

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/bank-canada-economy-isnt-ready-higher-interest-rates-yet-150039304.html

We maintained crappy NOMINAL economy growth for 15 years primarily due to aggressive credit expansion, as a result the fake economy became so distorted that even credit normalization triggers recession.

The economy is so dependent on ever increasing credit (in true Ponzi style) or it inevitable collapses if that credit growth is normalized.

It is a direct result from keeping the interest rates unnecessary way too low for far too long + intentional policy incentivizing aggressive credit growth.

A direct failure of BoC and financial ministry’s policies, as a result private credit is at its peak, plus no one has any money/savings.

Make no mistake.
To maintain the Ponzi scheme going just stopping interest rate increases is not enough, they have to be cut back, even in negative territory + BoC has to start buying aggressively government bonds/our form of QE for which BoC already indicated intend.

And even that will not stop the housing market collapse
as mortgage rates are linked to US long term treasuries and people will have less money to pay the mortgage due to cost of living increasing significantly.

It will kill savers and retirees though.

So expect aggressive inflation (It is amazing how Boc publicly and openly lies that interest rate increases cause inflation, while it is the exactly opposite, interest rates increases is the reaction to inflation), cost of living sky rocketing while public debt increases, jobs disappear, wages are stagnant, even go lower (our labour market is the exact opposite of the US labour market that is on fire).

We basically diverge from the rest of the world, no wonder investors are leaving en masse.

The loonie will be destroyed.

#95 Stan Brooks on 12.07.18 at 4:05 am

81 IHCTD9 on 12.06.18 at 10:33 pm

I would not worry about France, our situation is much more dire.

French healthcare is much better, as is food and weather. Education is free.

You can buy 5 french castles for the cost of a crappy moldy crack shack in Vancouver.

There was never housing bubble in France as the French buy with savings, not credit.

The riots are because the French as truly free men will never allow a bureaucrat to determine their destiny. They are not pussies (like us) and will most likely storm the Bastille again, 229 years after the original event.

Note that the French government immediately froze the intended gas tax hike while there is virtually no opposition against sock’s boy carbon taxes here.

Oh, if he only was the french president….

#96 Stan Brooks on 12.07.18 at 5:19 am

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/darling-dud-dollaramas-4-items-bad-business-194124719.html

Dollarama selling $ 4 items. No inflation here, right.

#97 The Real Mark on 12.07.18 at 5:42 am

I’m thinking of going into politics

I’m making signs in my mom’s basement

#98 Stan Brooks on 12.07.18 at 6:11 am

#91 joe calgary on 12.07.18 at 2:57 am

So housing doubles again in the next 3 yrs, stock market sucks and drops another 20% in the next 3 yrs. Another 3 yrs of all the junior Trumps telling me about the incredible investment they made leveraging themselves beyond belief. Meanwhile our govt is looking for any excuse to keep this Ponzi sheme going, to the point that I think the only way out of this debt problem will be hyperinflation.

The ONLY way for the housing market to go up from here/at peak debt is hyperinflation. Period.

A highly unlikely event at the moment, but honestly, looking at the BoC and political ‘leadership’ … who knows… I have seen stranger things.

#99 MF on 12.07.18 at 6:59 am

#94 Stan Brooks on 12.07.18 at 4:05 am

“France is totally bankrupt”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/france-is-totally-bankrupt-french-jobs-minister-michel-sapin-embarrasses-francois-hollande-with-8471077.html

-Try to troll harder Stan. Month after month. Day after day it’s 100% negativity with you. You sound like you should have been in “les miserables”.

“It also calls into further question Hollande’s controversial “tax and spend” policies that have seen numerous entrepreneurs and high profile celebrities leave the country.”

-Woops. Who does that sound like?

MF

#100 Tater on 12.07.18 at 7:38 am

#17 RWMZ on 12.06.18 at 5:32 pm
I know this question has probably been done to death but I never see a clear answer: both stocks and bond fund ETFs go down together. My bond fund and preferred ETFs are down by like 4 years worth of dividends in the past month.

So where are these magical “bonds” you invest in that go up when other things go down, unless you’re a big fish holding the actual bonds?
—————————————————————–
The negative correlation between stock and bond prices has only been in effect for about 30 years. Before that, they spent more time being positively correlated.

The worldwide slump in interest rates corresponded to a huge demographic bubble. A bunch of working age people around the world hit the labour force in the last 30-40 years. More workers > wages lower > less inflation > rates lower.

Now, though, things may be begin to flip as that cohort moves out of the work force and moves from being net producers to net consumers. Wages higher > inflation higher > rates higher.

No central bank can do anything to stop this.

#101 Tater on 12.07.18 at 8:02 am

#35 Ryan on 12.06.18 at 6:35 pm
I’m so glad our dearest leader is making sure he stays in the good books of late night comedians. I’m sure all this will balance itself out, right? It’s important we look after others first, before Canada gets any attention.
——————————————————————
Have you always had a problem with foreign aid? Or just when you don’t like the PM?

As a percentage of GDP, Canada’s foreign aid spending has been fairly consistent over the past few decades. And we tend to be a the low end of the OECD.

I know, that doesn’t fit your narrative of “dirty liberals give all my money away” but it is a fact. Try to learn more of them.

#102 Tater on 12.07.18 at 8:07 am

#74 tccontrarian on 12.06.18 at 9:16 pm
#121 Tater on 12.06.18 at 9:23 am

———-
Wow. Need to take a screen shot of this. Probably the worst non-TCContrarian take I’ve seen in this comment section.
++++++

Tater…the kind of guy (or whatever gender pronoun you go by), that I’d like to meet in person – just to see what an ‘internet jerk’ looks like.
I know you mocked the TLT buy a few weeks ago – well, FYI, I sold it all today at ~$119, for a small gain (+dividend) – not bad, as everyone else it seems, was in panic mode (you as well?)
I still think the worst has yet to come – what we’ve exprienced this year is the first stage of a crushing bear market, that (very) few are prepared for.
{Just as in the RE market, the ‘fun’ is just beginning. There’s a long way down to 3-4 times gross-family income – a ratio I’m sticking with.}
Call me crazy but I can’t see how you fix problems created by easy credit, by providing access to more credit (ie debt). Something’s got to give!

For those that haven’t noticed, precious metals have been acting as they usually do (and should), during times of uncertainty – the ‘anti-stock’ trade some call it. And in the Trump/Trade War/Currency War era, I think these are indeed, very uncertain times.
So, and dear Titer-Tater, I’ll be sure to post something especially fitting for you, but only when the SP500 has lost 50% or more. Don’t worry, this won’t be happening any time soon. Mr. Market needs to convince the majority of participants that “all’s well, stay invested”.
The Santa-Claus rally is ahead which will likely carry well into 2019…then be ready for another ‘October-like’ event, just when everything looked ‘normal’.

TCC

ps. I hope Garth isn’t a Grinch with my post! :)

Too funny to delete. – Garth

—————————————————————–
Soooo, you didn’t get the 130-135 price target you said would happen in a couple of months? The one you were so sure of you mocked someone for investing in a GIC because they could make much much more following your sage advice ? And not have their money tied up to boot!

So the term of you investment was more than double what you expected it to be and the return was 1/10th.

Well done.

And I assure you, I’m as much of an *sshole to idiots in real life as I am online.

#103 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.07.18 at 8:13 am

@#86 fishman
“The mayhem generated from this idyllic little province lately is epic.”
++++
One wonders if the Huawei extradition may be just the beginning and if it will start a property sales exodus…just what a falling RE market really needs…..panic selling…. :)

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bail-hearing-huawei-cfo-1.4936150

#104 Tater on 12.07.18 at 8:20 am

#87 Shawn Allen on 12.07.18 at 12:29 am
You Want More Risk Compensation? Careful What You Ask For:

#12 crossbordershopper on 12.06.18 at 5:10 pm said

[Canadian] investors are not being compensated for the significant variability of stock prices. Volatility is risk

********************************
Okay, and let’s say that is true. How can the market deliver more risk compensation? The market can’t affect earnings…

But the market can increase the risk compensation by lowering the price of stocks. That in fact is exactly what has been happening in a number of cases. Especially rate reset preferred shares. The expected dividends have not changed much but the prices are down a lot. The market decided more risk compensation was needed. Thanks for asking for that!

It can only give this compensation on a go forward basis and does so by lowering prices.

“Risk On” equals lower prices. Investors see risk and push prices lower to give a higher risk premium.

“Risk off” means higher prices. When investors have less concern about risk they need less risk premium and bid up prices on stocks and bonds.
—————————————————————-

You’ve got your risk on/risk off backwards. It relates to whether investors are putting risk on their books (buying risk assets) or taking it off (selling).

#105 Tony on 12.07.18 at 8:29 am

Quick guess 287,000 in America at 8:30am

#106 -=jwk=- on 12.07.18 at 8:35 am

“I know this question has probably been done to death but I never see a clear answer: both stocks and bond fund ETFs go down together. My bond fund and preferred ETFs are down by like 4 years worth of dividends in the past month.

So where are these magical “bonds” you invest in that go up when other things go down, unless you’re a big fish holding the actual bonds?”

I feel your pain, but four months of volatility in a long term investing horizon is simply a rounding error. Set up your weightings, then go enjoy life
=================

That’s all great, but it doesn’t answer the question- bonds are dropping *faster* then stocks and recovering *slower*. They are NOT going up when stocks go down. As least none of the Bond ETF’s I own are. So why bother? Just go 100% stocks and then go enjoy life. If my bond ETF’s ever back to even, which seems unlikely at this point, I am selling and buying stocks.

#107 Dominoes Lining Up on 12.07.18 at 8:35 am

600 call centre jobs lost in NS.

https://www.thechronicleherald.ca/news/regional/updated-servicom-call-centre-in-sydney-throws-600-out-of-work-266092/

The whole population is barely 32,000 there. What makes this so striking is that such businesses locate to such places to drive down wages and yet they cannot be sustained there.

This plus Oshawa plus upcoming further cuts as car companies go to electric and self-driving vehicles is a huge economic change domino that we thought would always be far in the future. It seems it’s at our doorstep now.

My thoughts are with the hundreds of NS families now out of work, still waiting for three weeks of unpaid wages.

What’s next?

#108 TurnerNation on 12.07.18 at 8:43 am

Folks in a market like this you must call your advisor/adviser and insist nay demand that they sell sell sell – all your Cash and buy into Reits, preferreds and international markets :)

A sign of the times: these all are Import car dealerships. None domestic.

“Automotive Properties Real Estate Investment Trust has entered into an agreement to acquire a portfolio of 11 properties from a privately held automotive dealership group, subject to a leaseback, for a combined purchase price of approximately $101.3-million. The portfolio includes six properties that are exclusively occupied by nine automotive dealerships and five properties designated for ancillary dealership services, representing a total gross leasable area (“GLA”) of approximately 303,817 square feet located on approximately 29.7 acres. Upon closing of the Acquisition, the REIT’s GLA will increase by approximately 18% and the portfolio will consist of 54 income-producing properties. Nine of the properties are located in the Ottawa, Ontario metropolitan area and two properties are located in Kingston, Ontario”

#109 ShawnG in TO on 12.07.18 at 8:45 am

94.1k new jobs in Nov
only 10k expected
rate hike in Jan is on

#110 Remembrancer on 12.07.18 at 8:54 am

#23 Madcat on 12.06.18 at 5:59 pm
How is it two of the largest countries in the world with the smallest population to landmass ratios have the most out-of-control real estate prices?
—————————————————————
Get a map, look at the actually mass habitable parts of both Australia and Canada, then look at where actually habited now based on historic patterns and population centres of gravity… The landmass ratios are a statistical data point, not the story…

#111 Justin McFaceplant on 12.07.18 at 8:56 am

#94 Stan, of course France is bankrupt, and now it’s trying to extort countries by using migration as an excuse.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-migrants-idUSKBN1O51X9

When Trump pulled out of the climate change fraud he also bankrupted every other EU nation that was using climate taxation as a means to fund globalization. Now with the US billions off the table and countries like France blowing trillions on population reconfiguration, they had had to resort to some nasty tactics , increased taxation on everything. And good for the French for rioting, shocked that Canadians aren’t doing the same. Vive la Revolution. Also shocked the Canadian media has a total blackout on all the protests that are occuring across Canada every day.

#112 Mr Pragmatic on 12.07.18 at 8:59 am

So many posts today expressing the frustration that a comparison between balanced portfolio investors and real estate investors inevitably brings.

There is simply no doubt that an RE investor enjoys a government that is supportive of continually rising prices through policy updates, a media and RE industry that can easily obfuscate the true nature of the market to their benefit a population religiously oriented in favor of RE in all of its perceived aspects .

Contrast with financial markets which are volatile by the second and a media that exacerbates that fact, an environment where industry participants are so regulated to death they are afraid of their own shadow and a public so distrustful even after a 300% +rise in the S&P past ten years.

You simply have no chance of stopping the RE obsession for long.

Most people do not understand that the last 30 years of their lives requires liquidity and cash flow, not real estate. – Garth

#113 neo on 12.07.18 at 9:05 am

So Poloz is “walking it back” and pausing rate hikes due to weakness in the economy yet Canada just printed a job growth of 94,000 for November sending unemployment to a record low 5.6%. Nothing fishy here.

#114 dharma bum on 12.07.18 at 9:22 am

#54 Joe Schmoe

JT confuses people of many languages and backgrounds.
——————————————————————–

Yes, but at least gender confusion issues are now being paid attention to in Canada. I’m so relieved.

Priorities, y’know.

#115 Smoking Man on 12.07.18 at 9:39 am

neo on 12.07.18 at 9:05 am
So Poloz is “walking it back” and pausing rate hikes due to weakness in the economy yet Canada just printed a job growth of 94,000 for November sending unemployment to a record low 5.6%. Nothing fishy here.
…..

Means one thing. Poloz know real estate is in decline and is terrified of the massive debt Canadian house holds have. He is definitely. Moving away from capping wage inflatin. Could also be influenced by the liberals, first they want your banking info, next they pay off msm who knows what dirty deals are done in back rooms.

#116 dharma bum on 12.07.18 at 9:55 am

#112 Mr Pragmatic

You simply have no chance of stopping the RE obsession for long.
——————————————————————–

There ‘s some truth to that statement.

As long as the human species continues to exist on this planet, there will always be a desire for shelter.

Neanderthals coveted caves. There is even archeological evidence indicating that their dwellings were decoratively adorned.

Tens of thousands of years later, Homo Sapiens covet houses, and obsess over owning and decorating them.

It’s in our most basic nature. The dumbest human understands and desires houses (to the extent that they do), but has zero concept of finance.

In the current world where housing and finance are necessarily intertwined, most regular folk (i.e., stupid) cannot comprehend the complexity of this, and doom themselves to lifelong economic peril. Once they are involved in home “ownership” (i.e., mortgaged for life to the max), they are forced to learn some basics of finance, and the relationship of houses as assets to the economy in general. They discover that as a ‘home owner” (i.e. debtor) they have a stake in a financial market on which their economic fate depends.

Hence, their new interest and concern about “the housing market”. These same people, for the most part, have no stake or interest in real financial markets, and therefore, no awareness or knowledge of anything financially related, other than “what their house is worth”.

Their financial survival is totally dependant on the thing they crave and have committed their life and labour to.

#117 Frank The Tank on 12.07.18 at 10:06 am

Most people do not understand that the last 30 years of their lives requires liquidity and cash flow, not real estate. – Garth

————————————-

And if a couple has solid DB pension plans? People with balanced portfolios will still need a place to live in those last 30 years. Not attacking, just asking.

No pension plan is a substitute for personal savings and investments. Stuff happens. Finding real estate is simple. Amassing liquid wealth is not. – Garth

#118 Alistair McLaughlin on 12.07.18 at 10:09 am

@#16, Canada and the US have an extradition treaty. (Unlike Canada and China.) Living up to those obligations is not “kowtowing to the US.” Ignoring our obligations under that extradition treaty most certainly would be kowtowing to the PRC.

#119 MR. Pragmatic on 12.07.18 at 10:14 am

#112 Mr Pragmatic on 12.07.18 at 8:59 am
So many posts today expressing the frustration that a comparison between balanced portfolio investors and real estate investors inevitably brings.

There is simply no doubt that an RE investor enjoys a government that is supportive of continually rising prices through policy updates, a media and RE industry that can easily obfuscate the true nature of the market to their benefit a population religiously oriented in favor of RE in all of its perceived aspects .

Contrast with financial markets which are volatile by the second and a media that exacerbates that fact, an environment where industry participants are so regulated to death they are afraid of their own shadow and a public so distrustful even after a 300% +rise in the S&P past ten years.

You simply have no chance of stopping the RE obsession for long.

Most people do not understand that the last 30 years of their lives requires liquidity and cash flow, not real estate. – Garth
————————————

Your response Garth is of course completely true but inconsequential to the fact that promotion of your position is stacked greatly against you. My point stands that RE enjoys a powerful tailwind while financial markets and products , a relentless and merciless headwind.

Just admit I’m correct. We all need money first. How hard is that to absorb? – Garth

#120 Sean on 12.07.18 at 10:40 am

#106 -=jwk=- on 12.07.18 at 8:35 am

I agree!

I bailed out of the ETF bonds i had recently so I could use that cash for depressed stocks instead. They barely did anything and certainly were not going ‘up’ in relation to the stock market going down.

My outlook is 30+ years though, so I figure heavy weight in stocks is still the way to go.

#121 Braj on 12.07.18 at 10:42 am

“Prices dipped an annualized 5% in November”

Does this mean prices have dropped 5% since last November? Or that you have converted .4% drop in November to an annualized percentage?

#122 mike from mtl on 12.07.18 at 10:45 am

#106 -=jwk=- on 12.07.18 at 8:35 am

That’s all great, but it doesn’t answer the question- bonds are dropping *faster* then stocks and recovering *slower*. They are NOT going up when stocks go down
///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Understand what you’re buying, all open end bound funds rise and fall in price according to various coupon rate. They’re always measured at market value, not face maturity value like a GIC or actual Bond.

Don’t forget bond funds payout the interest and capital gains (if any) constantly as their holdings mature. So long as you hold the fund for about the same timeframe as the maturity say 5 years, it should add up in total return the same as holding one stack bonds for 5 years until maturity.

There’s pros and cons of each or sure, but in either case selling for rebalancing will be at market rate.

Also short 1-5 yr are faring better than mixed medium and long 5-10 yr funds.

#123 PastThePeak on 12.07.18 at 10:47 am

#109 ShawnG in TO on 12.07.18 at 8:45 am
94.1k new jobs in Nov
only 10k expected
rate hike in Jan is on
+++++++++++++++++++++++

US Numbers are a bit lower than expected (155k new jobs, below the 189k consensus expected), but unemployment rate is unchanged, and that 155k is still an “economy is humming along” rate. Wage gains remained at 3.1% annualized, same as last month, and the highest since 2009.

Doesn’t seem like anything to derail a Fed Dec. rate hike (otherwise we know the Fed has fully surrendered to the Donald…). And with that, US goes to 2.5% and BoC at 1.75%, or a 75 basis points differential. With a strong Nov jobs report there at 94k new jobs (acknowledging this data tends to be volatile), the only downside news was that wage increases were 1.7% annualized (almost half our neighbour).

Provided that the Dec. jobs report doesn’t tank, there is a better than 50% chance IMO that the BoC makes an increase, but then waits it out (as I imagine the US Fed will also pause).

If not – hold on the the Looney train as it goes off a cliff…

#124 Alistair McLaughlin on 12.07.18 at 10:51 am

Anyone else see this?

https://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/canada-posts-record-jobs-gain-despite-concerns-in-oil-sector

Unless things change, a January rate hike is still on.

The only thing that will cause Poloz to back off is a weakening jobs report. He will not forego rate hikes due to market volatility:

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/bank-of-canada-governor-says-there-s-no-poloz-put-for-stock-rout-1.1179367

His allegedly “dovish” tone earlier this week was a switch from a firm commitment to further hikes to a more “data-dependent” course. With data like today’s jobs report, that means another rate hike.

#125 Frank The Tank on 12.07.18 at 10:51 am

No pension plan is a substitute for personal savings and investments. Stuff happens. Finding real estate is simple. Amassing liquid wealth is not. – Garth

————————————-

That is a fair response.

Could those people with DBs and RE just sell the home tax free and amass wealth that way? Or tap home equity if required?

#126 n1tro on 12.07.18 at 11:48 am

#50 k on 12.06.18 at 7:24 pm
The CFO of HUAWEI getting detained in Vancouver and extradited to New York is due to the HSBC regulators findings of suspicious account activity and possible money laundering. Do you want the West to turn a blind eye to such activities ? Canada is not a pawn for the USA.The rule of law is important to the western powers.
—————————————-
^ this is horseshit. Rule of law applies to the country and jurisdiction it was made. If the CFO was in the US, by all means, “detain” her. She was in a different country! And since when does “suspicion” warrant an arrest of an individual?

China and the many businesses it has is corrupt as sin but don’t go painting the picture that the US and its use of “laws” is pure in any way.

#127 n1tro on 12.07.18 at 11:55 am

#72 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.06.18 at 8:42 pm
@#156 nitro1
“700 students arrested…good luck trying to find the news on google”
—————————-
I’m not for or against the stuff that is going on in Paris. I just find it odd that the news is not making it to mainstream media. Megan Merkle wears Christmas dress and it’s right there for you to read. Violent protest based off of an increase in gas tax not so much.

#128 happily detached on 12.07.18 at 11:57 am

What happens next?
Suddenly
Like a spike in the night
Without warning
On a sharp incline upward
Faster than expectations
Quicker than licketty splits
Grab your hat
Hold on tight
For what happens next…

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?width=880&height=440&id=UNRATE

#129 Automotive REIT on 12.07.18 at 12:21 pm

#108 Turner Nation – This deal is for the Smoking Man and its not even April 1st yet. Great investment for him to buy, like all his other stuff that went down the tubes.

#130 neo on 12.07.18 at 12:54 pm

#115 Smoking Man

I just never believed in this recovering at all. Rates are still incredibly low by historical standards yet stock markets and government officials on both sides of the border are freaking out. There is just too much debt out there that can not be serviced above 3% on the 10 year for any extended period of time.

Canada will go into recession before the U.S. does. We never even really had a recession in 2009 because we goosed real estate for 10 years. You are right though. Next year is an election year and JT will just make things worse not better in order to get re-elected. Nobody wants to accept the fact that we need deflation to reach some equilibrium to begin a new credit cycle.

#131 n1tro on 12.07.18 at 1:11 pm

https://www.thelocal.fr/20181207/thousands-of-police-to-swamp-paris-streets-to-keep-order-on-saturday

89,000 police officers to be deployed. What is the ratio of police officer to protester to keep the peace? 1:10? 1:5? 1:1?

#132 In Garth We Trust on 12.07.18 at 1:14 pm

#42 Bill Grable on 12.06.18 at 6:47 pm
“You can tell I made a lousy politician”.

“I disagree.You were a fine example to anyone who reaches the stratosphere in Ottawa…..and simply works his face off. They treated you shabbily…because of jealousy and the fact you TOLD THE TRUTH.”

Hear! hear! I second that!

#133 Noam Chomsky on 12.07.18 at 1:17 pm

#126 1Ntro

“China and the many businesses it has is corrupt as sin but don’t go painting the picture that the US and its use of “laws” is pure in any way.”

Exactly! Watch one of my videos and you will see what the US of A is all about….

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vRbnPA3fd5U

#134 Russ on 12.07.18 at 1:40 pm

happily detached on 12.07.18 at 11:57 am

What happens next?
Suddenly
Like a spike in the night
Without warning
On a sharp incline upward
Faster than expectations
Quicker than licketty splits
Grab your hat
Hold on tight
For what happens next…

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?width=880&height=440&id=UNRATE
===================================

Hoo boy, Happy.

The FRED chart makes it easy to conclude that low unemployment numbers cause high unemployment.

Kinda like the CO2 vs Global Warming camps.

Does it mean we get ready for a coming recession? What can go wrong with using a single metric eh?

#135 Stan Brooks on 12.07.18 at 2:44 pm

Re: France is bankrupt.

The facts/when they speak even brain-frozen idiots are silent:

Private debt: based on 2016

France:
private debt: 230 % of GDP
https://tradingeconomics.com/france/private-debt-to-gdp

Canada:
private debt: 264.61 %
https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/private-debt-to-gdp

=============================

Public debt:

France:
Public debt: 97 %
https://tradingeconomics.com/france/government-debt-to-gdp

Canada: 89.60 %
https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/government-debt-to-gdp

==========================

You do the math, we have over 27 % of GDP more total debt than France.

#136 Shawn Allen on 12.07.18 at 2:46 pm

Unemployment Rate sort of Fake News

Statistics Canada headline”

“The unemployment rate decreased 0.2 percentage points to 5.6%, the lowest since comparable data became available in 1976.”

Which you might think implies the unemployment rate was 5.6% or lower in 1976. It was not. That was in the time of Stagflation (high unemployment combined with high inflation).

The unemployment rate in the data that Statistics Canad references for 1976 ranged from 6.7% in February to 7.5% in January. A far cry from today’s 5.6% which is more correctly stated as the lowest ever in data going back to January 1976 when the rate was 7.1%.

In any case, the press should also look into the (in) accuracy of this report. The unemployment rate is a statistical sample estimate subject to a high error rate. It’s become highly volatile month to month and its lack of accuracy is becoming a joke.

#137 Stan Brooks on 12.07.18 at 2:51 pm

There will be no more rate increases in Canada except maybe only one /to save some face for the incompetents at BoC and their BIS bosses.

#138 Linda on 12.07.18 at 3:25 pm

‘neo’ – Deflation may ‘begin a new credit cycle’ but there will be considerable carnage. During deflation, cash is king & the problem for many is that they have no cash. What they own deflates in value along with everything else – properties, for example. So those who purchased at the height of the market will still owe ‘X’ number of dollars on the mortgage, but the property is worth less. Sell & get out? Fine, for those who have the cash to buy. You can bet though that those who can buy are going to cherry pick to ensure they get the absolute best bang for their buck. Human nature being what it is, they will likely hold off in hopes of getting the best deal possible.

#139 PastThePeak on 12.07.18 at 3:28 pm

#135 Stan Brooks on 12.07.18 at 2:44 pm

Public debt:

France:
Public debt: 97 %
https://tradingeconomics.com/france/government-debt-to-gdp

Canada: 89.60 %
https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/government-debt-to-gdp
==========================

You do the math, we have over 27 % of GDP more total debt than France.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Unfortunately, most Canadians, and a significant portion of the commenters here, are financially illiterate and easily manipulated:

– They fall for T2 / Morneau’s trick to only talk about the federal debt, as though that was it. Of course all provinces, and I would guess most large municipalities, are also in permanent deficit mode. Ontario’s debt is about 1/2 of the federal debut. These two combined is just under $1Trillion of accumulated debt. BC, Quebec and AB add another $305B.

– They do not understand the level of Canadian private (consumer and business) debt, relative to GDP. It is a considerably higher level than the US.

Oh well…

#140 Ace Goodheart on 12.07.18 at 3:48 pm

For real estate to ever be affordable in major urban centres in Canada there would need to be more land.

Go find somewhere, anywhere in Toronto where you can purchase a building lot for under 500k. The neighbours down from us just severed and sold, with variances, a 14 foot by 128 foot building lot off their property (used to be their driveway) for 750k. And it is an empty lot. Nothing on it. Someone will build a two or three storey, 12 foot wide house on that lot (they have a variance that allows foundation footings to be one foot from the lot line) which will sell for around 1.5 mil.

That is how things are in Toronto as people scramble for every last piece of buildable land.

Sorry to all the hopefuls but you are not going to get a detached house in Toronto in some great real estate crash. Not happening. Not enough available land.

Condos on the other hand…..

Or if you want a mcmansion in Brampton…..

#141 Blacksheep on 12.07.18 at 3:48 pm

Ahhh!

Run screaming!!!
|
“‘Great Dying’: Biggest ever mass extinction triggered by global warming leaving animals unable to breathe”

“Study highlights potential for similar event resulting from man-made climate change, scientists say”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/mass-extinction-great-dying-global-warming-climate-change-oceans-animals-a8671971.html

Our world…gets ever more ridiculous, by the day.

#142 jess on 12.07.18 at 3:55 pm

is this too good to be true?

Canada’s largest railway believes the “CanaPux” can be a game changer for the country’s oil industry.

The CanaPux, developed by the Canadian National Railway, is essentially crude oil mixed with a polymer and wrapped in that same polymer. The result is a solid puck-like product that CN Rail believes will mitigate the risks associated with train-based oil shipping, while at the same time opening the product to the global market and reducing shipping costs.

The Canapux would be shipped as a solid product. When it arrives at its destination it can be processed and restored to a traditional crude oil. ..
“They won’t burn, they won’t ignite, they won’t create any dust, they won’t leach or dissolve into the environment and the best part about CanaPux is they float in water,” he said.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/cn-rail-developing-method-for-shipping-oil-in-puck-form-1.4207379

#143 The Revolution on 12.07.18 at 3:57 pm

This will become nasty in France because 65,000 police officers have been drafted into service. The military has been called into action too, because its spreading nationwide. The youth and older have said enough is enough with men and women arm in arm going to support the revolution. Macron must go, and they will be marching for the love of country. Viva La France for the courage to face Fascism head on.

Ah, wasn’t he elected? – Garth

#144 jack on 12.07.18 at 3:57 pm

“As Canada enters an election year the economy’s starting to limp, which scares T2….”

****************

Doesn’t seem to be “limping” yet….

Canada gains 94,100 jobs and unemployment rate drops to record low

https://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/canada-posts-record-jobs-gain-despite-concerns-in-oil-sector

#145 Steven Rowlandson on 12.07.18 at 4:06 pm

Unfortunately there is no will to take corrective measures that will solve problems and curb abuses. What ever council has been offered to governments and financial institutions has been rejected. Home owners and other property owners feel an invincible entitlement to their asset prices and those who are promised government benefits and subsidies also feel an invincible entitlement. No one wants to cut back , accept less or increase wages therefore there are only a limited set of possibilities.

1. Deflationary collapse due to too much bad debt and a starving main street economy.

2. Hyper inflationary wipe out that destroys all savings, renders currency and work useless and makes life impossible until there is currency reform and enforced austerity..

Since capitalism, communism and democracy led to this mess I would imagine all 3 would be seen as the work of Satan for at least awhile. Once people had some time to calm down and get preoccupied with survival related problems the same type who made the mess would get back to the business of doing the same thing over and over again expecting a different result. The public lacking a legal alternative will vote the same people back in. They like getting something for nothing and they like being lied to.
It is always the doom of people that they forget the past and don’t learn from it.

#146 Tater on 12.07.18 at 4:07 pm

#140 Ace Goodheart on 12.07.18 at 3:48 pm
For real estate to ever be affordable in major urban centres in Canada there would need to be more land.

Go find somewhere, anywhere in Toronto where you can purchase a building lot for under 500k. The neighbours down from us just severed and sold, with variances, a 14 foot by 128 foot building lot off their property (used to be their driveway) for 750k. And it is an empty lot. Nothing on it. Someone will build a two or three storey, 12 foot wide house on that lot (they have a variance that allows foundation footings to be one foot from the lot line) which will sell for around 1.5 mil.

That is how things are in Toronto as people scramble for every last piece of buildable land.

Sorry to all the hopefuls but you are not going to get a detached house in Toronto in some great real estate crash. Not happening. Not enough available land.

Condos on the other hand…..

Or if you want a mcmansion in Brampton…..
—————————————————————-

Homes in Brampton and Richmond Hill and Vaughn are substitutes for Toronto houses. Once the prices fall too much people will make the sacrifice of the commute.

That’s why prices there matter. On the flip side, if the city gets too expensive, that prices pressure bleeds outwards and inflates the burbs.

#147 Uzurpator on 12.07.18 at 4:41 pm

Ya, Richmond BC is really affordable city to leave in Canada….
https://www.zolo.ca/richmond-real-estate/3-bedroom-houses

#148 Fish on 12.07.18 at 5:02 pm

Market Insight:
What to Expect From Central Bankers in 2019
Beata Caranci, SVP & Chief Economist | 416-982-8067
James Orlando, CFA, Senior Economist | 416-413-3180
Date Published: December 4, 2018

https://economics.td.com/ca-market-insight-central-bankers-2019

#149 Reply on 12.07.18 at 5:18 pm

#143 – Of course he was elected based on what he said, but he changed course and lied. In 2017 62% were in favour of Macron’s leadership, but now its at 23% that was done recently.

#150 PR on 12.08.18 at 10:04 am

Federal reserve raise Interest rate 0 time under Obama and now 7 times under trump ! You see something here ?