Careful

Never buy a dog when you're drunk

Another one bites the dust.

Days ago a big GTA-area developer went paws up, filing for bankruptcy protection and leaving a lot of debris in its wake. Forme Development Group, out of Markham, has specialized in building low-rise, high-rise, mixed-use and hospitality developments. But no more. The company says it has $220 million in debt and can’t make payments despite having 18 projects on the go in the Toronto region, Waterloo, Niagara and Prince Albert out there in the flatlands.

Forme says in court documents it has “been experiencing increased stress on its cash flows for the last year, which has led to occasional late and missed debt payments.” And this: “In recent months, however, the company has encountered serious liquidity issues  due to  a slowdown in the real estate market in the GTA, as well as delays in planning and development of several projects resulting from municipal delays. Consequently, the company can no longer advance its projects since it does not have the liquidity to pay development costs.”

The outfit has scrounged up five million to keep going until its various projects are liquidated. So if you were planning to move into a new Forme town house in Mississauga or Toronto, a condo in Waterloo or the GTA, good luck. Remember the GreaterFool Guide to Buying Real Estate – Rule 7: never purchase anything you can’t yet pee in. If it doesn’t exist, it’s a futures play. And this is what can happen.

$     $     $

It’s disasters like Forme that have a Big Rethink going on right now over the mortgage stress test. Builders, realtors and some provincial politicians have been seriously lobbying Ottawa to back off this sales-killer, or at least cap the beast. Without a doubt this thing has squished credit, squashed moisters, dampened sales and erased the profits of people who gambled that housing demand would continue despite whatever regs the feds came up with. (Look at what just happened to sales in Vancouver. Shudder.)

As you know, the stress test was the immediate result of banks’ mortgage portfolios getting too ugly for the regulator to gaze upon. Thanks to the Bank of Mom, tons of unqualified kids were buying houses without mortgage insurance because they were gifted 20% downpayments and could escape close scrutiny. So the bank cop put his foot down and declared everyone be tested to ensure they could make the payments. Okay, we get that, the industry says. But did you have to make it so extreme?

So the pressure is on to have the qualifying rate (now at the bank offer +2%) capped at a lower level, and not float up with future rate hikes. I hear this is exactly what will happen in 2019. By the way, don’t be shocked if Ottawa – going into an election year – also allows 30-year amortizations again (with CMHC coverage), plus mortgage insurance for properties selling over $1 million.

You can draw your own conclusions. Maybe someday we’ll elect people with spines.

$     $     $

Tuesday’s big dump on stocks was a complicated thing, it turns out. Trump bragged about his deal with China, then reversed himself in a tweet (“I’m a tariff man,” he foolishly wrote). A Fed official said some hawkish things just days after the market figured rate pressures were easing. Bush’s well-earned state funeral shuttered markets on Wednesday, forcing traders to cover positions. And the yield on long bonds flopped, making people wonder if debt markets were forecasting slower times ahead.

In any case, one day does not a market make. And for investors with balanced, diversified portfolios it was just noise. Ignore it.

A more fundamental issue is if central banks will continue to tighten in 2019, or back off – as Trump has demanded. So here is what TD Economics says in a fresh report: (a) next year will be Peak Rate in Canada and the US. (b) Any sharp drop in consumer or business confidence (including real estate) will help kill more increases. (c) Given debt-drenched households and a wonky energy industry the Bank of Canada will blink first.

$     $     $

When GM restructured, punting 2,500 workers in the iconic Oshawa plant, it was a huge story. But that may be the just the start of an unwinding of our car business, despite the USMCA. Next up – Ford.

While the company disputes it, Morgan Stanley analysts are sticking with a report saying the company is about to axe 70,000 workers across its global platform in a $11 billion restructuring as it, too, gets ready for a future with fewer cars, more autonomous vehicles, electric models plus way fewer grunts on the assembly line and white shirts watching them. In the crosshairs might be the sprawling complex in Oakville where 4,500 people toil. Current production includes the Edge, Flex and two Lincoln somethings.

Let’s hope not. But lately I’ll believe almost anything.

157 comments ↓

#1 Kevin on 12.05.18 at 3:59 pm

Hey Garth, any chance you could update your website so it’s more user friendly on mobile? Current mobile view is a bit 1985….

#2 James on 12.05.18 at 4:03 pm

Huh, Trump said pleading the fifth was for the Mob! Now guess who is pleading the fifth? Roger Stone!

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-associate-roger-stone-to-plead-the-fifth-in-senate-russia-probe

https://globalnews.ca/news/4169357/donald-trump-pleading-5th-guilty-as-hell-stormy-daniels-case/

#3 Frank The Tank on 12.05.18 at 4:07 pm

Wait, so the stress test is going to be lowered and capped along with peak interest rate in 2019 – oh boy.

I hate to say it, but uppa Uppa UPPA she goes. Nono is going to be strutting around like a wrinkly peacock.

#4 Dave on 12.05.18 at 4:14 pm

With everything going bad financially in Canada, I predict we will have a BORROWING economy.
Retail giants like Amazon, Costco, etc that have a no questions asked return policy will be seeing millions of customers buy, use and then return merchandise.
Why pay when you can borrow for FREE. So the question is, Are you a borrower or buyer???

#5 crossbordershopper on 12.05.18 at 4:25 pm

its kinda sad for the future where a little interest rate rise and tip the economy off kilter. People have too much debt, less debt less to worry about. Trump is correct stop buying junk from China, you dont need it, and you can live without out and surely dont go in debt to acquire it.
Trust me the Jones next door dont care about you anyway. They dont even know you let alone what you have or dont have.
I remember going to a wedding, as the Bride was walking in front of us, you know young pretty white dress pretty lady in her spendler on her day.
next to me was two old ladies one turns to the next saying she looks fat in that dress. I am sure they will talk bad about her later as they sip on their wine.

#6 Exilled on 12.05.18 at 4:34 pm

Sir Garth:

Thank you for correcting the call delay. With Thanks You.

#7 Old news on 12.05.18 at 4:39 pm

A few of us blog dogs knew from the beginning that anything that seriously jeopardizes the massive capital gains on homes since 2010 would get killed. This stress test will disappears, guaranteed. No surprise here.

#8 Ubul on 12.05.18 at 4:42 pm

“I’m a tariff man”

Canada is a tariff country from the beginning of times.
Inter-provincial tariffs. Who are the Canadian closet Trumps who invented and maintain this system, without being the target of ridicule?

#9 Dolce Vita on 12.05.18 at 4:44 pm

What, no “The most important charts to watch in 2019” commentary?

Ya, I know I baited you last night and was hoping you’d toss 1 or 2 of them up today with commentary.

Mostly about “debt bad” and every second title has “slow” or “slowdown” in it.

A lot like StatCan’s “Gross domestic product, income and expenditure, third quarter 2018” Report with Sector performance title words such as “Slows, Declines, Falls, Slower, Fall, Edge Up”. There only bright spot Sector title was:

“Strength in mining and petroleum refineries”…well, we all know how that’s going as of late.

Told you so Garth that the economic slowdown begins in 4th Qtr 2018 in earnest (and like a broken record for the past year).

1st Qtr 2019 comes a recession.

Writing on the wall since early 2017. I don’t like it because many people will be hurt financially, a lot.

Each generation has its financial Waterloo, time for the Millenials now to go thru some tough times.

The economy needs a good purging of bad economic actors every so often and from this some thing new and better emerges and money is put to better use.

CHART MAVEN HEAVEN:

https://www.macleans.ca/economy/economicanalysis/the-most-important-charts-to-watch-in-2019/

#10 Lost...but not leased on 12.05.18 at 4:47 pm

Phyrrzt!

#11 Smartalox on 12.05.18 at 4:47 pm

First of all, tough luck about Forme. But hey, it’s called ‘Real’ Estate, not ‘Potential Estate’ for a reason!

Scenes from the November stats release from the REBGV:

– Median detached prices are down in all areas, though some areas (like New West and Port Moody) the number of sales is so low, that prices are not reported.
– West Van, Van West Side, East Van, North Van and Delta all show multi-month price declines stretching more than 6 months.

Sales:
– Detached sales are down 38% compared to Nov 2017, and Year to Date figures show that the , the gap is increasing. Big hitters:
– Burnaby down 55% from 2017 (and down 24% from Oct 2018),
– North Van down 47% compared to 2017 (and down 41% from last month),
– Maple Ridge down 44% from 2017, (down 25% from October),
– Delta down 41% from 2017(down 19% from October).
– East Van: sales down 39% vs 2017, down 29% from October.

Sales to Listings:
With sales cratering so deep and so quickly in so many regions, you’d expect that ‘Sales to Listings’ would be down. too. Oddly, this is not the case. While sales to listings ratios have dropped slightly year over year, they’ve actually spiked in most areas in both October and November.

If sales are down, then listings must be down, too. And they are:
– Listings down 46% in Burnaby vs. 2017, down 54% from Oct 18 to Nov 18.
– Listings down 26% in North Van vs 2017, down 43% Oct to Nov, (and total 70% decline from September!)
– East Van listings down 36% on the year, 25% last month, and down 37% from September)

I’ve written before how the monthly figures show listings surging into the market one month, then surging out a few months later as the 90-day terms expire. Last month’s drops in the numbers of listings was twice the usual volume for this pattern.

What does it all mean? Well, I’m no expert. I’m not even a Realtor. But I suspect that after failing to make a sale at the prices that they feel they deserve, sellers are pulling their properties off the market, for the holidays, anticipating a hotter markets in the spring.

Of course in BC, around Jan 8th, homeowners (and their bankers) will be receiving their notices of assessment, and many will realize that if they didn’t get their price in 2018, they sure won’t get it in 2019.

Look for a flood of listings in January, followed by a round of removals in April, with no sales.

Then come the price cuts, when the masses re-list in May.

#12 Shawn on 12.05.18 at 4:48 pm

The question isn’t whether or not the FED will stop raising rates it’s whether they stopped in time.

If not expect a lower low for the S&P500.

#13 Hello Low Rates on 12.05.18 at 4:49 pm

Looks like the end is near for any rate increases. They will be lucky if they don’t have to cut with all the automobile restructuring and oil prices in the toilet. Once the NDP is punted from office in BC, Real estate will rise from the ashes to be king again. Just look at immigration to the lower mainland. Yuge. Lowest vacancy rates in the country.

Things are starting to look rough all around for every investor–the new normal.

#14 Victoria Real Estate Update on 12.05.18 at 4:50 pm

TRUE OR FALSE (searching for a grain of truth in the unsubstantiated claims of Victoria real estate “experts”)

“House prices in Victoria continue to skyrocket higher every month.

Year-over-year compared to last November house prices across Greater Victoria are like 10% higher. That’s nothing new for our desirable world-class city.

10% higher than the previous year became the new normal for house prices in our city after things changed forever in 2015/16. I‘m totally serious. The official stats prove it.

No price correction is coming our way. Buy now and WIN or wait it out and LOSE!”

===================================

Based on the stats from Victoria’s R/E board, the average price of a single family home (house) in Greater Victoria in November was – 6% lower than in November 2017.

What this means: when we add together all 239 SFH sale prices in the region in November and divide by 239 to find the average price – that average price is – 6% lower than it was a year ago.

This official data from Victoria’s R/E board proves that the local real estate market has been changing from an up market to a down market in recent months. What’s happening in Victoria isn’t unlike that which has happened with every housing bubble in history.

There is usually some degree of fluctuation with the average price on a monthly basis, but Victoria’s overall average price trend is making a clear statement: the inevitable bubble price correction is beginning.

Victoria single family home – average price
( % difference year-over-year (YoY ):

2018:
November: – 6%…. (the average SFH price in November was – 6% lower YoY)
October: + 8%
September: + 4%

2017:
November: + 6%
October: + 11%
September: + 14%
(Source: Victoria’s R/E board)

(continued)

#15 Old news on 12.05.18 at 4:53 pm

The government is well aware that these losses to critical economic infrastructure in Ontario is a death spiral. They also know that home values are the only thing that will keep some of these families afloat when they lose their work.

So their creative solution is more of the same we have seen for the last 10 years…..keep homes inflated at any cost. Locals don’t have the money at these prices so the plan is to ramp up the wealth migration into Ontario.

Say hello to the new boss, same as the old boss.

#16 Victoria Real Estate Update on 12.05.18 at 4:53 pm

Every housing bubble in history – and there have been thousands – has seen the direction of prices turn from positive to negative. And Victoria’s price reversal is simply the beginning of the inevitable correction that all housing bubbles experience.

And as prices fall we can expect the usual suspects – bankers, policy makers, realtors, brokers, etc. – to employ typical housing bubble damage control procedures by:

* claiming that there is no bubble or the that it has disappeared,
* releasing news articles every day saying that no major correction will take place,
* officially announcing every day that the price bottom is in and it’s safe to buy,
* claiming that nobody could have seen it coming after the market has proven them wrong.

In Canada’s case the price correction/melt experience will generally be no different than that of any other housing bubble in history. Those who have done their bubble homework may recall that American real estate “experts” claimed that San Francisco had no bubble in 2006/08, that no correction would take place in that city and how the market then proceeded to prove the “experts” wrong with a – 45% price melt in 3 short years.

US CITIES – PRICE DECLINE (%) (after 2006/08):

* San Francisco, California (-45%)… (in 3 short years)
* San Diego, California (-42%) * Los Angeles, California (-41%)

* Bismarck, North Dakota (-1%)
* Shreveport, Louisiana (-1%)
* Amarillo, Texas (-2%) * Cedar Rapids, Iowa (-2%)
* Davenport, Iowa (-2%) * Fargo, North Dakota (-2%)
* Texarkana, Arkansas (-2%)
* Oklahoma City, Oklahoma (-3%)
* Rapid City, South Dakota (-3%) * Wichita, Kansas (-4%)
* Great Falls, Montana (-4%) * Billings, Montana (-4%)
* San Antonio, Texas (-4%) * Little Rock, Arkansas: (-4%)
* Lexington, Kentucky (-4%) * Austin, Texas (-4%)
* Sioux Falls, South Dakota (-4%)
* Omaha, Nebraska (-5%) * Tulsa, Oklahoma (-5%)
(Sources: Case-Shiller Index, All-Transactions House Price Index)

200 years of world housing bubble history shows that house prices in bubble cities always get dinged hardcore. No exceptions.

And history shows that those who wait out the bubble price correction always end up having plenty of time to buy at much lower prices – prices that give their income the same purchasing power that families had for decades before government intervention in the housing market began to inflate the bubble.

#17 John on 12.05.18 at 4:54 pm

First?, for the first time?,
Let me say Trump is obviously a
complete bulls__tter, and sooner or later
he is bound to trip over what he spouts
out, which is what happened with his
disjointed comments on the china meeting,
Looks like dividend stocks are making
a comeback today as the prospect of
high inflation and rate hikes has diminished,

#18 Joel on 12.05.18 at 4:54 pm

Garth, just wondering what you think this will do to residential real estate prices. The increase to 30 year amortizations and CMHC insurance over one million. Wasn’t this why we got into this mess, or do you think people are so stressed financially it won’t matter. Should buyers who can afford it think about purchasing before the rules change.

#19 unbalanced on 12.05.18 at 4:57 pm

As I told ya yesterday,Frump the chump has a big mouth.

#20 Felix on 12.05.18 at 4:57 pm

Don’t knock it till you’ve tried it.

The creature pictured today would actually be a much more intelligent and useful choice than a dog.

Plus it would pay dividends in the form of consumable dairy.

#21 AGuyInVancouver on 12.05.18 at 4:57 pm

How ridiculous is it that the bank regulator essentially has to force banks to be prudent in their lending? Isn’t that the banks job? Want to get rid of B20 – Fine, on the condition the CMHC gets out of the business of insuring any mortgages. Let the “free market” ie the banks, live with the consequences of their business decisions!

#22 Doug t on 12.05.18 at 4:58 pm

good ridence to combustabel engines

RATM

#23 Troy McClure on 12.05.18 at 5:01 pm

Ooooh, I love border collies! 10 bucks says its name is Oreo.

#24 The Wet One on 12.05.18 at 5:06 pm

Related to all of this and ever lurking in the background, there’s this: https://phys.org/news/2018-11-climate-extensive-worse-thought.html#jCp

So many good days ahead!

Boo yaa!!!

#25 Dolce Vita on 12.05.18 at 5:09 pm

Well, your image today of “Spot” from the Dick & Jane Reading Collection says it all.

It totally explains why Canadians ate 95 million less kg. of beef this year compared to 2010. And, you can’t blame the 3 million Plant Eaters for that, there’s not enough of them.

With weed having been legalized, Lord only knows what will show up on that couch next.

Ya, I know…Buonanotte.

#26 Shawn on 12.05.18 at 5:13 pm

Preferred shares are beginning to price in a rate cut by the BOC…

#27 Penny Henny on 12.05.18 at 5:15 pm

DELETED

#28 ts on 12.05.18 at 5:15 pm

Garth, I thought you said that they couldn’t meddle with the stress test. Now it looks like we’re going backwards again….. 30 year mortgage. etc. This is making my head spin.

#29 MF on 12.05.18 at 5:20 pm

“(a) next year will be Peak Rate in Canada and the US. (b) Any sharp drop in consumer or business confidence (including real estate) will help kill more increases. (c) Given debt-drenched households and a wonky energy industry the Bank of Canada will blink first.”

-Ha Ha Ha. Hilarious.

Bravo to all those who called the bluff and purchased RE.

We all knew the central banks couldn’t raise rates “too much” because of debt levels. We all knew they were hamstrung, totally paralyzed with fear, and pretty much had to resort to talking about raising rates more so than actually doing it.

The emperor has no clothes. GTA RE to the moon.

MF

#30 Kamaljit Takhar on 12.05.18 at 5:22 pm

When in 2019 are these rules to the b20 most likely to change…..will this cause r/e to prop up again??

#31 SmarterSquirrel on 12.05.18 at 5:23 pm

Garth,

A while back I looked at investing in a reconstruction condo vs. investing in an existing multi-unit property vs. investing in a dividend growth stock… (https://smartersquirrel.com/real-estate-or-stocks), the returns were all within the same ballpark given enough of the right assumptions… but the risk of the developer going belly up wasn’t part of my calculations…

thanks for the insight… it confirms my decision to stick with a diversified portfolio of dividend growth stocks for now and eventually to look for a positive cash flow multi-unit property that already exists!

#32 dakkie on 12.05.18 at 5:25 pm

Visualizing the Aftermath of the Real Estate Bubble (2007-17)

http://www.investmentwatchblog.com/visualizing-the-aftermath-of-the-real-estate-bubble-2007-17/

#33 pay your taxes on 12.05.18 at 5:40 pm

Looks like Mark was closer to being correct than most of the commenters in the peanut gallery, though few will be inclined to admit it and give him his due. He’s still on crack about the 2013 real estate peak and sales mix but he was right about interest rates. The jury’s still out on deflation but with good paying blue collar jobs disappearing there’s a strong check on inflation.

#34 Not So New guy on 12.05.18 at 5:40 pm

“As you know, the stress test was the immediate result of banks’ mortgage portfolios getting too ugly for the regulator to gaze upon. ”

===========================

It’s getting so bad our banks only made $43 billion in profits this year. Call the fire department!

#35 Shawn on 12.05.18 at 5:41 pm

Could see $CAD in the 60s in 2019.

#36 LP on 12.05.18 at 5:42 pm

Aw come on…there’s got to be a story behind the calf on the couch!

#37 Debtslavecreator on 12.05.18 at 5:42 pm

B20 will be massaged to help these crooked politicians- got to keep the debt based Ponzi going to maintain the illusion of wealth
BofC now about to start buying a “small” amount of govt bonds and Canada mortgage bonds in a desperate bid to devalue / steal your assets by maintaining fictitious nominal asset values to protect tax revenues used to pay interest on the massive govt debt pile
My oh my
We are in the early stages of a historic recession which will be obvious in 6 months and those “small” amounts of govt bonds and CMBs will suddenly be not so small
The blatant corruption at all levels of government is so obvious
It is spreading to law enforcement and the judiciary
See the latest in the rcmp stay of charges in the major money laundering case and the recent Supreme Court decision on access to journalist work
Keep saving those loonies and maxing our your TFSAs and RRSPs folks
Let’s see how you are doing in 5-7 years after tax and inflation
I really hope I’m wrong but T2 and his friends are having too much fun borrowing all this debt to help their campaign contributors – the young be damned

l

#38 Ex-Cowtown on 12.05.18 at 5:45 pm

Interest rates could stabilize, the stress test could be cut in half; but the thing that is changing rapidly is market psychology. People’s blind belief that real estate will always rise is being shattered.

On Global last night Joe Average was interviewed and said, for all the Nation to see, that the U.S. style Real Estate meltdown is now here. Nuclear weapons grade persuasion in that comment.

Mr. Socks, Moroneau and the CREA are helpless against Joe Average comments.

#39 gardth on 12.05.18 at 5:50 pm

i’m shocked. the real question is how this fossil fueled, overpopulated, conspicuous consuming behemoth can do another doubling. the cheap tricks are done.
Something Has Got To Give – Tim Garrett | PREPARE for the collapse of industrial civilisation
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Efba4t2tF-g
have a great extinction!

#40 Pepito on 12.05.18 at 5:51 pm

The recovery was a fake. QE fuelled further misallocation of capitol, much of it into financial markets and realestate again, and exacerbated an already huge wealth inequality world wide. Ordinary people are tapped out and up to their ears in debt just trying to live ordinary lives. For anyone with a working brain it is obvious that all the bs about improving economies is just that, bs. Trump, Brexit, riots in France, and the turn to populism around the world are the consequences. I’m just amazed how many professionals in the money business just can’t see what”s right in front of their nose and continue to pretend that it’s just business as usual.

#41 Ray Skunk on 12.05.18 at 5:57 pm

2019 is Peak Rate in Canada, eh?

6 weeks ago I was strongly considering switching to fixed rate. Today, I’m not so sure.

Thoughts from Garth and the peanut gallery? Has the locking-in ship sailed?

#42 Renter's Revenge! on 12.05.18 at 6:08 pm

#133 Sold Out on 12.05.18 at 2:53 pm
Perhaps this article sheds a little light on today’s blog victim.

https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2018/12/rich-people-happy-money/577231/

====================================

I think that article probably describes a small number of psychotically-motivated people than it does your average well-off retiree.

#43 Frank The Tank on 12.05.18 at 6:11 pm

Things have changed. Quickly! Still can’t believe it.

#44 Not So New guy on 12.05.18 at 6:17 pm

So once again debtors get coddled and savers get a good hard kick to their softer parts courtesy of the banking cabal

#45 reynolds531 on 12.05.18 at 6:24 pm

I really need to find another public sector job so I can live blissfully unaware.

#46 Steven Rowlandson on 12.05.18 at 6:26 pm

“Never buy a dog when you’re drunk.”

Absolutely! On the other hand if you find out you have bought a dairy cow instead then you are in luck.
Free grass cutting, milk, meat, hides or if you know some one who has a bull you can let nature take its course and get more critters and if you have a bull there is the possibility of stud service for hire. Worst case scenario you wind up with meat in the freezer.
There are times when one must look for the goods in every situation.

#47 Brian 1 on 12.05.18 at 6:47 pm

20% of student loans lent out in Ontario but only 3% increase in enrolments. Did they buy houses instead?

#48 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.05.18 at 6:48 pm

@#36 LP
“there’s got to be a story behind the calf on the couch!….”
++++++

Sometimes there is no “why” when alcohol is involved.

#49 Bigriders Nonno on 12.05.18 at 6:50 pm

# 3 Frank The Tank on 12.05.18 at 4:07 pm

Wait, so the stress test is going to be lowered and capped along with peak interest rate in 2019 – oh boy.

I hate to say it, but uppa Uppa UPPA she goes. Nono is going to be strutting around like a wrinkly peacock.

——————————

Frank a the tank, I tella you lika I tella Louie the lip , Johnny coffee cake and our very shmarta but hava too mucha ofa da schooling GarthaTurner.

“She’sa only gonna go oneaway disa real estata markato ina Toronto, she’sa only gonna go uppa Uppa UPPA ” !

#50 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.05.18 at 6:51 pm

Speaking of “Why”.

Any Blogdogs in Jolly old Blighty venture to guess as to whether “Mother Theresa” will still be Prime Minister by Christmas?

#51 jack on 12.05.18 at 6:54 pm

“So the pressure is on to have the qualifying rate (now at the bank offer +2%) capped at a lower level, and not float up with future rate hikes.”

***************

The real problem is that house prices in Canada’s cities are still FAR TOO HIGH and the market is actually in the process of adjusting naturally.
Removing or easing the stress test will only kick the can further down the road.

#52 PastThePeak on 12.05.18 at 6:55 pm

Government logic 101:

Poloz: “Consumers have taken on too much debt, which is a both a drag on the economy and its recovery, as well as increasing financial instability”

Deputy Wilson: “So what do you propose?”

Poloz: “Cap and then lower the BoC rate to stimulate more borrowing to help the economy…”

#53 President Tariff on 12.05.18 at 6:55 pm

Factory jobs are going to China, and to Vietnam and Cambodia. “President Donald Trump’s trade war was meant to bring lost manufacturing jobs back to the U.S. However, it appears to be sending factory jobs out of the U.S. And while Trump punished some foreign competitors, he actually rewarded others. It’s one thing for a plan not to achieve its goal — it happens. But when your plan is making the problem worse, common sense says you stop right away.

Trump tapped the brakes at his G-20 summit meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. He agreed to delay the 25% tariffs that would have gone on Chinese goods beginning Jan. 1.

But the train is still rolling downhill. And more Americans are going to learn it the hard way… like thousands of Midwest automotive workers did last week.”
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/forget-the-trade-truce-trumps-tariffs-are-killing-us-jobs-2018-12-05?fbclid=IwAR1Jl2FQb_ZRf-JPROgi9m8cYPsgjjy3qhCBZCWEcFfq-hsXQFl1ULAQz0Q

#54 NoName on 12.05.18 at 6:57 pm

That old place i worked an abot two yrs before they put a look on a door, management went full gong ho on lean manufacturing. 5S was mantra, sunrise and sunset meetings, “we” were told to rejoiceing Sort, Set, Shine, Standardize, Sustain, that is all to make us more competitive that other plants.

Funiest thing at one of the meetings yrs ago some of managers told us that all overhead fornthe hear was made with in first month and a half, and rest of that was extra…

I gues place got so efficient that st some point there was no need for workers. Rummor is that plant who took our products and volume is steel struggling and making more scrap than good material. Knowing machine setup at that plant it is almost certainly that roomor is true.

During that time of lean manufacturing in my estimation they did made place more efficient and productive, while cutting cost.

On top of that brought half way thry transformation lean six sigma expert was brought in help them, who in his own words to me told me, “I LIKE HELPING CANADIAN MANUFACTURING”. Funy after small chat with dude and some googling place he worked on were closed or shinked to the point that they were on its last legs…

But i have to give credit to dude he all over this global warming thinge, probably fistbone that took gov grant and contract for alternative energy, one were we pay them 89¢ for kwh and we charge consumer 14¢.

He help them to save some more money, my theory was steel is that savings were used to offset cost of severance packages. Anyone with two brain sell would do that.

I remember last contract telling our umion pres, to something about severany for hourly employees, and he went on and on abot pie and how he is trying to devide pie equally between members… After that there was no point talking to him.

Way back during GFC most of db plans were underfunded, and because of it gov mandated for corp that plan has to up to some year, as soon plan was fully funded switch to dc was plant wide, so from that point there was no forward liabilities for company for underperforming db plan, and dc plan would put all risk on a employees, while they would fill make their own desition how to invest inside the dc plan.

So what i am saying in all this rant is if you are good, productive and contributing member of society you and your family is on path for tough time. What i would like to see tjat camada for next 10 years brings in 300 super rich people per year, so elite can indentifie with common deplorable, to se what competition is.

As my colleague alway says why i couldn’t be born rich instead of handsome…

As for my current employer it looks like that its doing exactly same thing as privous one.

And on a side note press play.
https://youtu.be/wZAxy3FNiwU

#55 Bigrider on 12.05.18 at 6:59 pm

Frank the tank and everyone else for that matter, I beg you not to write about my nonno being right about the RE market in the GTA.

I live with him as I can no longer afford to buy a home (waited) and I am tired of getting whacked in the head with his worn out garden shoes.

#56 Terry on 12.05.18 at 7:06 pm

“While the company disputes it, Morgan Stanley analysts are sticking with a report saying the company is about to axe 70,000 workers across its global platform in a $11 billion restructuring as it, too, gets ready for a future with fewer cars, more autonomous vehicles, electric models plus way fewer grunts on the assembly line and white shirts watching them. In the crosshairs might be the sprawling complex in Oakville where 4,500 people toil. Current production includes the Edge, Flex and two Lincoln somethings.”

I think Morgan Stanley has it right Garth. Despite USMCA the damage has been done. The roughly a dozen auto assembly plants in Ontario are built, are producing and are aging. With tax reform changes in the U.S., the constant threats of more tariffs on Canadian imports to the U.S., militant Canadian Unions to deal with, Canadian environmental and regulatory overreach, high electricity costs, and high taxes……….Auto exec’s are just running out the economic life clock with all their Canadian plants here and getting their shutdown timing right with labour laws for the upcoming 2020 contract talks. 2020 contract negotiations and beyond will see closure agreement after closure agreement until all the auto plants are gone. Also, long before that our oil and gas industry out west will be all shut down as well. Trudeau and Butts will get their way destroying our auto and oil industries.

Thanks Liberals……….for destroying everything you touch!

#57 Sebee on 12.05.18 at 7:10 pm

This is the one! This video is what I think about each time I read about how special a house is. Bugs Bunny nails it!

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=hnZw5C8AtqU

#58 marcus on 12.05.18 at 7:13 pm

Santa Rally is a no go. She was arrested while Trump was at the table with President Xi! LOL! This is a VERY big deal. Big big big story out today. This is huge w/r/t China and impending hot war ……. not just trade war. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-05/trade-truce-over-canada-arrests-hyawei-cfo-us-request

#59 Wild Bill Hickok on 12.05.18 at 7:15 pm

#36 LP on 12.05.18 at 5:42 pm
“Aw come on…there’s got to be a story behind the calf on the couch!”

It’s last peaceful moments before it began turning on the spit….

#60 S.Bby on 12.05.18 at 7:23 pm

I suppose we only need the mortgage stress test if interest rates are going up and it sounds like rates are going to be stalled for some time.

Canada doesn’t have much going for it; no new oil pipelines, auto industry job losses, deficit government spending etc., we are probably going into a recession soon so let’s pump up our non-productive real estate again.

#61 Smith X on 12.05.18 at 7:30 pm

Garth, are you saying the Liberals are willing to risk a financial crisis by removing the stress test just so they can get reelected? Naw really?

#62 joblo on 12.05.18 at 7:33 pm

Is that the Prime Ministers dog?

#63 theoryAndPractice on 12.05.18 at 7:40 pm

Tuesday’s big dump on stocks was a complicated thing, it turns out. Trump bragged about his deal with China, then reversed himself in a tweet (“I’m a tariff man,” he foolishly wrote). -GT
———————-
Could this be just premeditated tweets or talks ? What if some group of people knows exactly when, which news is going to be released for a reason. I do not think the tweeter is foolish but may be having an agenda to follow.

#64 Bob Dog on 12.05.18 at 7:44 pm

This could upset Trump trade talks. What was she doing Vancouver today? Buying what left of the city?

Canadian authorities arrested Wanzhou Meng, the CFO of Huawei Technologies and daughter of the telecom giant’s founder, Ren Zhengfei. An ex-officer with the People’s Liberation Army, Ren is one of the country’s most revered business figures.

#65 For those about to flop... on 12.05.18 at 7:50 pm

Recent sale report.

I featured this ugly duckling in a Race to a million post.

Turns out I was off by a couple of grand.

I’ll survive.

The details…

1948 e 33rd ave ,Vancouver.

Originally asking 1.09

Just sold for 1.02

Assessment 1.26

So they started off at 1.09 ,terminated and had a time out.

Probably surprised at the lack of interest at the bottom of the market.

Came back on at 1.08 ,still one of the cheapest options going.

I think the guys at Inverness that paid the same money got a much better deal but maybe a developer saw something they liked.

Totally liveable.

Looks like someone was using it as a daycare.

Last year I saw a couple like this go on 33rd for around 1.2

That’s as good a comp you will get to see that the bottom of the market has shed at least 200k

It wasn’t that long ago that there was nothing going under 1 million and now you can get a block of land for 800k.

The market has the chills.

Better go and see the quack…

M44BC

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/1948-east-33rd-avenue

#66 theoryAndPractice on 12.05.18 at 7:55 pm

So the pressure is on to have the qualifying rate (now at the bank offer +2%) capped at a lower level, and not float up with future rate hikes. I hear this is exactly what will happen in 2019. By the way, don’t be shocked if Ottawa – going into an election year – also allows 30-year amortizations again (with CMHC coverage), plus mortgage insurance for properties selling over $1 million.- GT

As long as gov’t puts CMHC out of business, this is fine. Then, the banks are free to provide NINJA mortgages to $10 million properties! Would bankers take the ‘same’ risk without it ?

#67 NOSTRADAMUS on 12.05.18 at 8:02 pm

GOODFELLAS!
Probably one of the best gangster movies ever. And , how appropriate for today’s real estate speculators , one and all looking for guidance in an uncertain time. With liberty, I quote ” And, finally, when there’s nothing left, when you can’t borrow another buck from the bank or buy another case of booze, what do you do? Answer, You light a match. Questions ??? Could freedom 55, really be within reach? Is it really possible to retire to Miami beach on fire insurance money? That’s a question for you and your insurance company. Once again, you can trust me as the teller of truth in the land of gypsies, tramps and thieves.

#68 Shawn Allen on 12.05.18 at 8:08 pm

Auto Assembly in Canada?

In theory, a country should export those things it has a competitive advantage in producing. For Canada this has historically been resources.

The auto trade was created by the Auto Pact which was basically a form of protectionism.

What is Canada’s competitive advantage in assembling autos? Low dollar which means low wages? (Sad, if true but with high union wages it is not even true). Bigger government subsidies? (Extremely sad if true.) Lower electricity prices in Ontario due to Hydro? (long gone due to incredible mismanagement of electricity ion Ontario)

If I were an auto assembly worker in Canada, I would be worried.

#69 common sense on 12.05.18 at 8:12 pm

#40 Pepito

Bingo.

A total fake recovery based on debt and yes most in the financial business (except Garth) will keep pimping everything is awesome to keep the masses invested and collecting commissions…

same as it ever was.

#70 Linda on 12.05.18 at 8:21 pm

If the stress test does indeed get capped, revised or repealed, not a surprise. As the effects became apparent those who experienced business adversity naturally began to lobby against the measure. Heck, they were lobbying even before it went into effect. As disappointing as it may be, every government looking for re-election has made promises, revised or implemented legislation & announced programs/funding in an effort to ensure that the majority of votes cast would be cast in their favour. Good government used to mean doing what was best for the majority of Canadians; sadly, it appears to have been replaced with doing what is best for the politicians.

In this age of the Internet, why do we still use the old style of governing? If we can vote in a representative electronically, why can’t we vote on whether legislation is implemented? Of course, if we do take control we can’t blame anyone but ourselves if things don’t work out as we thought they would, but at least ‘the will of the people’ would prevail. Something to think about.

#71 Asterix1 on 12.05.18 at 8:31 pm

These bankers are just glorified “mortgage pimps”. They will say anything for you to sign your next 25 years away to a life of debt.

Wont make a difference if you lower rates. Most people in Canada have low salaries, no cash, no savings and tons of varied debt.

Australia is what Canada (GTA/Vancouver) will be in the near future.

– “Australia’s once-booming housing market is in a retreat, with prices falling the most since the 2008 global financial crisis last month”

– “But with house price weakness accelerating, wages slow to pick up and consumption softening, the outlook may not be so rosy.”

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2018/12/04/australia-central-bank-holds-rates-still-optimistic-on-economy/

#72 The Real Real on 12.05.18 at 8:50 pm

“#33 pay your taxes on 12.05.18 at 5:40 pm
Looks like Mark was closer”

Thank you. Big question right now is how quickly the BoC will act upon the deflationary crisis that is unfolding. Will Poloz come out and admit that hiking from 0.5% was a mistake in light of the falling house prices and severe overcapacity in the housing and O&G sectors that had developed? Or will they keep hiking rates until there’s a systemic crisis in the Canadian financial system?

I’m kinda skeptical which way it could swing, as I never believed Poloz was so out of touch with the state of the real economy to actually believe that hikes were justified in the first place.

#73 cramar on 12.05.18 at 8:52 pm

See the price of cauliflower lately? Shades of two years ago!

Saw something on the news last night to expect large increases in prices on fresh-food items. They said a typical Canadian family of 4 will now spend well over $12k/yr in 2019 feeding themselves.

Inflation on real things that you MUST buy with after tax dollars is a big deal for those with massive debt and high mortgages. If many Canadians are strapped now, how will they deal with increased food costs? Probably more KD.

#74 The Real Mark on 12.05.18 at 8:57 pm

“we are probably going into a recession soon so let’s pump up our non-productive real estate again.”

Its almost impossible to pump an asset class that is in physical oversupply up once it has popped. There are plenty of examples throughout history of government trying in vain but failing.

Best case scenario for Canada is that global macro-events trigger a gold rush, and investors and workers in Toronto/Vancouver in the sector, which has provided no shareholder returns since the 1970s, get filthy rich and start spending enough to reboot the economy and pull it out of its deflationary funk.

But given that gold stock ownership is so concentrated amongst so few, and gold stock owners have had the proverbial tar beaten out of them, it will take some pretty extreme gains before those people are inclined to spend anything that even begins to resemble the impact that wide-spread RE gains had in the economy.

So yeah, some pretty dark times ahead. Hopefully things won’t turn too nasty socially, politically, and otherwise.

#75 OttawaMike on 12.05.18 at 8:57 pm

Somebody needs to ask these high rise tower builders such as Brad Lamb and their ilk, if buying a condo as an investment is such a good thing why are none of them building purpose built rental towers and doing it themselves?

#76 Vancouverless on 12.05.18 at 8:58 pm

>By the way, don’t be shocked if Ottawa – going into an election year – also allows 30-year amortizations again (with CMHC coverage), plus mortgage insurance for properties selling over $1 million.

This is practically a nation-wide “Ralph Bucks” move with an eye on the house horny middle-class.

How could this go wrong?

#77 When Will They Raise Rates? on 12.05.18 at 9:00 pm

#70 Linda on 12.05.18 at 8:21 pm

If the stress test does indeed get capped, revised or repealed, not a surprise. As the effects became apparent those who experienced business adversity naturally began to lobby against the measure. Heck, they were lobbying even before it went into effect. As disappointing as it may be, every government looking for re-election has made promises, revised or implemented legislation & announced programs/funding in an effort to ensure that the majority of votes cast would be cast in their favour. Good government used to mean doing what was best for the majority of Canadians; sadly, it appears to have been replaced with doing what is best for the politicians.

In this age of the Internet, why do we still use the old style of governing? If we can vote in a representative electronically, why can’t we vote on whether legislation is implemented? Of course, if we do take control we can’t blame anyone but ourselves if things don’t work out as we thought they would, but at least ‘the will of the people’ would prevail. Something to think about.

———————–

I almost started a political party back in Uni days based on this exact principle. It’s problematic…

#78 For those about to flop... on 12.05.18 at 9:05 pm

Pink Pumpkins being carved in North Vancouver.

Let’s see who has some blood splatter on their decaying pumpkins.

Featured these guys a few weeks ago when they put their house back on the market for 1.89

They were originally chasing 1.98, but with the new ask being 1.79 they are in the hole after expenses because they paid 1.80 in October last year.

They will be lucky to escape with a Pink Draw.

Will they make any profit?

All Hope is gone baby, gone…

M44BC

1429 Hope Rd,North Vancouver.paid 1.80 October 2017

Originally asking 1.98

Then asking 1.89

Now 1.79

https://www.zolo.ca/north-vancouver-real-estate/1429-hope-road

#79 akashic record on 12.05.18 at 9:23 pm

“Wanzhou Meng was arrested in Vancouver on December 1. She is sought for extradition by the United States, and a bail hearing has been set for Friday,” Justice department Ian McLeod said in a statement to The Globe and Mail. “As there is a publication ban in effect, we cannot provide any further detail at this time. The ban was sought by Ms. Meng.”

The news hit the wire on December 5th.

In Canada, a foreign national, arrested on international warrant has the power to delay the news for days and force a publication ban?

#80 ts on 12.05.18 at 9:24 pm

#29, MF

I wouldn’t feel too smug about interest rates and the stress test. Things have a way of changing pretty damn fast and not everything is within the government’s or the BOC’s control as much as you would like to believe. With so much government manipulation and incompetence, the real estate market may just “balance itself” in the famous words of JT.

#81 unbalanced on 12.05.18 at 9:26 pm

Trumps house of cards is falling down. This is why he keeps mouthing off the way he does. China ain’t taking no crap from him. Putin is more crookeder than him. No one can stand a bully. He has met his match. All air and Fake Hair.

#82 Vampire studies on 12.05.18 at 9:28 pm

I like fords. Used to be GM guy, but now have an F150
and an edge. prefer the F150 ride.

If the BOC has a “neutral” rate in mind, I think it would be good enough to have the stress test at that rate, or maybe a little over, depending how much higher that is than now.

#83 Danforth on 12.05.18 at 9:32 pm

Garth, any thoughts on another car maker picking up the Oshawa GM plant at a fire sale prices and retooling, hiring a local work force under non-union terms?

(Honda comes to mind…they’re up in Allison…)

#84 Cedric on 12.05.18 at 9:49 pm

So just when the YVR market is starting to show potential for meaningful price drops…. rate hikes cease, talk of 30 year ams, and potential watering down of b20. Sounds about right.

#85 Leo Trollstoy on 12.05.18 at 9:57 pm

#35 Shawn on 12.05.18 at 5:41 pm
Could see $CAD in the 60s in 2019

That’s very unlikely. But I like your chutzpah

#86 Vision on 12.05.18 at 9:58 pm

I agree with the stress test. What is wrong with buying a house you can afford on the long term and not extending yourself to the max. Eliminating the stress test makes it easier for speculators to flip.

#87 PastThePeak on 12.05.18 at 10:07 pm

While Canada’s economy is definitely on not-so-firm-footing, I wouldn’t say the same about the US. We will see this Friday, but wouldn’t be a surprise to see continued good employment numbers, and the wage increases continue (yes the wage increases are not big, but trending in the right direction).

So, I would expect more rate increases out of the Fed than BoC would want to consider. The only question is how far BoC is willing to trash the Looney.

And as a side note, does Powell feel that he has to follow through on the previously set expectations for a Fed rate hike in Dec, to avoid looking like Trump’s lap dog?

#88 AisA on 12.05.18 at 10:10 pm

Down fast or down slow, there is only one direction if you’re in the know.

#89 tccontrarian on 12.05.18 at 10:18 pm

For Flopper:

https://www.zolo.ca/langley-real-estate/8729-222a-street

8729 222A ST LANGLEY V1M 3S8

Assessed at $2,174,000 in 2017
Offered for sale at $1,799,900 (listed 2 days ago)

“No sales history for the last 3 full calendar years”

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDBGNUdXOQ==

#90 Axehead on 12.05.18 at 10:18 pm

2,500 jobs lost here, 4,500 jobs lost there. Alberta looses that many jobs every month. And guess where those poor jobless souls migrate back to.

#91 For those about to flop... on 12.05.18 at 10:21 pm

Race to a million.

Richmond edition.

This is what affordable housing looks like in Vancouver.

I get all sorts of mail about what’s happening where, and since I’m not good with words I prefer to show examples.

The details…

1005 Williams Rd Richmond.

Originally asking 1.35

Then 1.19

Then 1.05

Now 999k

Assessment 1.03

So while they overshot the assessment at the start they are probably one of the few that could argue they were under-assessed compared to some others I have seen out that way.

This house was built in 1985 and has a half decent interior.

I have showed a couple of others go for around a million in Richmond,much better product for the same money in Vancouver.

If this thing was across the water in South Van they would probably still be chasing their original ask of 1.35.

So like I said, this is what affordable housing looks like in Vancouver.

You mightn’t like the price tag, but that’s where we’re at.

This one should keep someone happy for a long time yet and shouldn’t be too much of a money pit compared to others in this bracket city-wide.

Sing this to the Nationwide jingle.

Flopperwide is on your side…

M44BC

https://www.zolo.ca/richmond-real-estate/10051-williams-road

#92 millmech on 12.05.18 at 10:31 pm

#58
The Chinese govt will make it so that anyone putting money into Canada will be considered a criminal and be subject to immediate imprisonment. Fentanyl will flow even faster into Canada from China, they are not a paper Dragon!

#93 AGuyInVancouver on 12.05.18 at 10:32 pm

#79 akashic record on 12.05.18 at 9:23 pm
“Wanzhou Meng was arrested in Vancouver on December 1. She is sought for extradition by the United States, and a bail hearing has been set for Friday,” Justice department Ian McLeod said in a statement to The Globe and Mail. “As there is a publication ban in effect, we cannot provide any further detail at this time. The ban was sought by Ms. Meng.”

The news hit the wire on December 5th.

In Canada, a foreign national, arrested on international warrant has the power to delay the news for days and force a publication ban?
_ _ _
Some Foreigners are more equal than others. Just ask those like Miaofei Pan who managed the neat trick of fundraising for both Trudeau and Scheer.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/british-columbia/article-chinese-canadian-who-held-a-liberal-fundraiser-at-his-home-wins/

Maybe this will force the Liberal Polyanna’s into opening their eyes about Huawei’s security risks. Up until now they’ve been pushing the notion that Canada has superduper spyware-busting powers the Americans don’t.

#94 The Fat Lady on 12.05.18 at 10:43 pm

BRAMPTON ASSEMBLY OFFICIALLY on the chopping block.

Who buys chrysler 300s, challengers, and chargers anymore?

NEXT is WINDSOR ASSEMBLY. Those newly named minivans called the Pacifica are not selling as intended. All shifts are working 5days 5hours a day.

#95 Hydro One on 12.05.18 at 10:48 pm

What is this mess all about involving Ford?

#96 Paul on 12.05.18 at 11:00 pm

83 Danforth on 12.05.18 at 9:32 pm
Garth, any thoughts on another car maker picking up the Oshawa GM plant at a fire sale prices and retooling, hiring a local work force under non-union terms?

(Honda comes to mind…they’re up in Allison…
————————————————————————————————
I don’t think G.M. Would sell to a competitor.
Most likely a grow op. To keep the millennials high and comply.

#97 DON on 12.05.18 at 11:36 pm

So our economy and related debt is so fragile we cannot handle simple rate hikes. YIKES!

How will house prices do during a recession? The market has been spooked. Prices are un-affordable as it is, how much higher can they go? Whose’s gonna buy them, the money launderers and drug king pings that were allowed to do business under the former BC Liberals or Wynne’s crew in Ontario? In BC’s case the first party to call for a Quebec style corruption investigation wins a majority.

How many people under the age of 36 have experienced a full on recession in their adult years and under current debt burdens? Things don’t happen in a vacuum. Lost jobs affect consumerism and consumer spending is declining. How can anyone who just read what Garth wrote not be a little worried about our collective future.

The Australians barely moved rates and their housing market is set to be the same or worst then the 1987 downturn. A couple of months back it was a temporary dip, then it was a soft landing, then it was much better than 1987 and now there are hoping that it won’t be worse. AND economic growth is declining.

Why on earth are the real estate cheer leaders happy that Canada is not in a position to raise our interest rates. How attractive do we look to international, let alone our own native investors.

Reality bites! The fact that good times turned to less than stellar times should make people think carefully.

#98 DON on 12.05.18 at 11:44 pm

#81 unbalanced on 12.05.18 at 9:26 pm

Trumps house of cards is falling down. This is why he keeps mouthing off the way he does. China ain’t taking no crap from him. Putin is more crookeder than him. No one can stand a bully. He has met his match. All air and Fake Hair.
****

That’s a nut-bar, Tin-foil conspiracy theory…Trumps Hair is the real deal. It’s lit!

#99 Long-Time Lurker on 12.06.18 at 12:07 am

Condolences, WUL.

Speculations:

So interest rates are going to rise slower and Justin’s planning on propping up the housing bubble because nothing else is driving the Canadian economy?

So what happens to pension funds? They were already in trouble a few years ago when they were unsustainable at below 8% interest rates?

Let’s say pension funds implode as a result of delaying raising interest rates. People will lose or get reduced pensions. Many retirees will probably sell their houses to cover the difference. Housing market prices will decline anyway in the ensuing avalanche.

With government budget deficits increasing and economic torpor inhibiting growth, that spells stagflation along this route. Add in a probably unavoidable recession and you get The Great Recession, Canadian Edition.

Kick the can down the road or take your lumps now with a shorter corrective recession? Rhetorical question.

By the way, for those who’d reply I wanted the Van housing bubble to decline slower: The BC Guacamole Party policies only make the bubble burst faster outside of rising interest rates. Don’t be so gleeful. You’ll be worried about your job in Vancouver’s recession. Don’t think it’ll happen here? Just ask the U.S., Ireland, and Iceland.

#100 Blutterfy on 12.06.18 at 12:16 am

KD is for rich people. Buy bulk pasta from Costco and add a bit of milk, garlic salt, and nutritional yeast. Much cheaper than name brand.

#101 april on 12.06.18 at 12:27 am

#84 – Cedric — read Ross Kay – howestreet.com – Monday the 3rd. Yes I understand what your saying though.. just as the correction is in full swing they step in and try to slow it down but not according to Ross Kay… “historical wealth distruction” in Canadian housing market is about to happen.

#102 Gordon Leadfoot on 12.06.18 at 12:59 am

Ford can punt every worker in North America if wants and still have a bright future in China and it’s newest acquisition India. Those two markets dwarf anything Canada has to offer and that’s the future of Ford. They are investing in China big time and have just partnered with Indias biggest car company to produce Ford at a tenth the cost of production in Canada, workers at a dime a dozen , a growing middle class in the hundreds of millions. Canada is not worth the time it takes to “negotiate” with our barbaric job killing unions. In five years there will be no Ford Canada. As a shareholder I’m proud of them. Liberals have killed manufacturing in Canada and have used union leaders like the executioner. Yesterday I read that young educated Canada are flooding out of the country in droves as the Trudeau subsidizes companies to hire refugees. The coming election will be about bodies, not a future for your children. Liberals seem to be saying, ” If you don’t vote Liberal, we’ll replace you.

#103 Ogopogo on 12.06.18 at 1:55 am

Great news: Kelowna RE continues to go down, even by the frankennumbers of the local cartel OMREB.

Cue the fearmonger by the clown-president of OMREB, the hilariously named Merv Beer:

“OMREB president Marv Beer believes if the government doesn’t stop meddling in the market with the speculation tax, interest rates hikes and the stress test, people are going to start losing their jobs and their homes.”

https://www.castanet.net/edition/news-story-243672-1-.htm#243672

#104 Smoking Man on 12.06.18 at 1:59 am

Wondering if T2 will walk back his carbon tax and the compact on migration seeing what just happened in France.

If he doesn’t, he thinks you are all stupid.

Or he gives no shit about you and wants to please his UN masters hoping for a job once he gets broomed. Part time drama teacher and shitty money manager is all the bugger has on his resume.

I don’t blame him for sucking up. It’s what all useless people do.

Dr Smoking Man
PhD Herdonomics.

#105 Dominion Minion on 12.06.18 at 2:14 am

His doctor wanted him to switch to de calf.

#106 Dolce Vita on 12.06.18 at 2:37 am

I can’t help but notice Canadian news from here, there and elsewhere that there is:

Too Much NEGATIVE Sentiment (well, save the Unsinkable Garth).

People have good rationale I am sure for this thinking but with it, an economic slowdown can be turned into a recession (after all, recessions are HALF psychology). A slowdown is OK, an economic “breather” for want of better words and only the very irresponsible will financially suffer.

A Despair Phase exacerbates a decline beyond what it should have been and many suffer, not only the irresponsible.

Somehow, this sentiment has to be turned around.

How? I do not know. If it keeps up though, tough times ahead by early next year.

#107 mogulrider on 12.06.18 at 4:48 am

Lots of real estate pumpers here.
Interest rates will not pause much as they rise to 10-12% in the next 24 months.

The one piece everyone forgets or don’t know about is this.

Pension funds are in deep deep trouble after 10 years pf ZIRP.

Both public and private pension funds are deeply underfunded from lack of growth due ot zero bound.

Central banks will raise and will raise more than most people think.

We had 1000 year lows in rates and teh central banks are now behind the curve.

Yield curves are in trouble and are showing 2007 type behavior.

I guess the point of this memo is this.
Prepare for 10-12% interest rates far faster than you think.

#108 mogulrider on 12.06.18 at 4:52 am

The best time to buy real estate is when you come upon a guy with a microphone and a portable speaker yelling that these condos will go to the highest bidder….

Any bids?
C’mon people these were 500K last year
Any bids?

OK lets start at a penny

That’s what we heard standing on a beach if Fort Laud in 2009…..

bought two for 18K each
Oh and they would even take visa and would let you clear the card and put the other one on a few days later…

Priceless

#109 Sunny on 12.06.18 at 5:43 am

Garth,
You mentioned government has no role or control over the stress test. It’s the bank cop (OSFI) which is responsible for the stress. Government has just do the fiscal policy. Then how come you expect stress test watered down in 2019 and also 30 year amortization. If this is the outcome, we should expect prices increasing again.

#110 Howard on 12.06.18 at 6:09 am

#101 Gordon Leadfoot on 12.06.18 at 12:59 am

Ford can punt every worker in North America if wants and still have a bright future in China and it’s newest acquisition India. Those two markets dwarf anything Canada has to offer and that’s the future of Ford. They are investing in China big time and have just partnered with Indias biggest car company to produce Ford at a tenth the cost of production in Canada, workers at a dime a dozen , a growing middle class in the hundreds of millions. Canada is not worth the time it takes to “negotiate” with our barbaric job killing unions. In five years there will be no Ford Canada. As a shareholder I’m proud of them. Liberals have killed manufacturing in Canada and have used union leaders like the executioner. Yesterday I read that young educated Canada are flooding out of the country in droves as the Trudeau subsidizes companies to hire refugees. The coming election will be about bodies, not a future for your children. Liberals seem to be saying, ” If you don’t vote Liberal, we’ll replace you.

———————————

All foreign entry into Canada is now off the charts under this government. TFWs now total more than 300,000, effectively doubling yearly immigration. Wages in Canada will be suppressed for yet another generation and beyond.

Young Canadians had better look into acquiring second citizenships. Take your pick – US, Australia, New Zealand, UK, EU – just get a job abroad and stay long enough to get the passport. Invaluable to keep your options open.

#111 NoName on 12.06.18 at 6:33 am

Hey DV is this what you are refaring to?

High Earners Are Making the Fed’s Job More Difficult
In a rare occurrence, households with the most purchasing power are more pessimistic than those with the least.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-12-05/high-income-households-aren-t-very-optimistic

#112 Frank The Tank on 12.06.18 at 6:40 am

‘High’ house prices are the new normal?

“We should consider the possibility that, given Canada’s relatively healthy financial system, the current level of home prices is justified and that significant downward pressure is unlikely to occur,” writes Mr. Fong, who then acknowledges that the idea that high prices might be “the new normal”

Link: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/article-high-home-prices-are-the-new-normal-cpa-economist-says/

#113 Frank The Tank on 12.06.18 at 7:16 am

#55 Bigrider on 12.05.18 at 6:59 pm
Frank the tank and everyone else for that matter, I beg you not to write about my nonno being right about the RE market in the GTA.

I live with him as I can no longer afford to buy a home (waited) and I am tired of getting whacked in the head with his worn out garden shoes.

———————————————

My condolences.

Do you at least get really good homemade gnocchi?

#114 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.06.18 at 8:20 am

Commuting through the Lowerbrainland ….I’m noticing the same “For Sale” signs in front of the same places for months now,not weeks,….months.
It must be killing Realtors to actually work for a sale….and those obscene commissions…buh-bye. :)

Let’s see what the indebted, Visa bill laden, non mortgage qualifying public does in Jan when December’s non sales numbers hit new depths in the Vancouver blood bath.
“Uppa Uppa Uppa! It always goes Uppa!” …… until it doesnt.
Panic Listings in Spring 2019?
Its been 35 years since the real estate meltdown of the 1980’s graced us with it’s cold icy grip….time for a refresher course in the risks of debt in the Lower Brain Land?
Long overdue.

#115 Trumpocalypse2018 on 12.06.18 at 8:21 am

Have you ever watched a tornado form from nothing into an F5?

It’s happening right in front of you with Trump.

1.Mueller probe going for the jugular, redacted bits will blow everything up for the Donald.

2. Don Jr will be indicted

3. US tariff war about o bite back big time.

4. NKorea exposed as lying about nukes, Trump must respond and desperately needs a distraction=WAR. NK has amazing nukes already that can reach N.America today.

4+ This WAR will bring in China and Russia as US overreacts. Need we say more?

5.Brexit, French social revolts and EU mess have prepped Europe to be part of WAR, a distraction again very helpful for the imperiled political classes.

If we do not go into lockdown in the next 72 hours I will be posting important updates here in the days ahead. Everything is going to be shaken up, very quickly.

PREPARE.

#116 Frank The Tank on 12.06.18 at 8:27 am

#106 mogulrider on 12.06.18 at 4:48 am
Lots of real estate pumpers here.
Interest rates will not pause much as they rise to 10-12% in the next 24 months.

———————————————–

Uhh, 10-12%? This is the funniest thing I’ve heard all year.

#117 Alistair McLaughlin on 12.06.18 at 8:51 am

@ #111 Frank the Tank, such pronouncements remind me of the time when Jeffrey Rubin called for a 50 cent CAD, and later, when he called for $200 oil. You hear such things, and you just know the market is about to turn. The “new normal” is neither new nor normal. Just another bubble that sticks around long enough to entice even those who should know better.

After hearing “it’s different this time” and “this is nothing like 2004-2008” for the past 6 years, the San Francisco area is correcting once again. Median home price down 15.5% from peak.

https://wolfstreet.com/2018/12/05/san-francisco-house-condo-bubble-prices-fall/

Don’t worry though. The GTA has a way bigger tech industry than Silicon Valley. It could never happen there. (Sarcasm.)

Oh, and if anyone wants to bring up immigration, have a look at California’s population growth over the past decade. Phenomenal, despite net out-migration of American citizens to other states (due to the high costs of living – sound familiar? IHDTC9 has described precisely the same process occurring in the GTA). California gets 100s of thousands of newcomers a year, and the Bay area sees its share. Yet it is seeing a 15.5% correction while the economy is still booming. Imagine what the next recession will do. In the Bay area…. and in the GTA. Regardless of mortgage rules, regardless of interest rates, regardless of immigration.

#118 -=jwk=- on 12.06.18 at 9:01 am

Some of us need to visit a farm. Without a bull, you don’t get milk. That’s how nature works.

No increase today:
Governing Council determined yesterday that the current level of interest rates remains appropriate for the time being. And, weighing all of these developments, we continue to judge that the policy interest rate will need to rise into a neutral range—somewhere in the neighbourhood of 2.5 to 3.5 per cent—in order to achieve the inflation target. The pace at which this process occurs, of course, will remain decidedly data dependent. We will continue to gauge the impact of higher interest rates on consumption and housing, and monitor global trade policy developments. The persistence of the oil price shock, the evolution of business investment and our assessment of the economy’s capacity will also factor importantly into our decisions about the future stance of monetary policy.

#119 dharma bum on 12.06.18 at 9:01 am

#20 Felix

The creature pictured today would actually be a much more intelligent and useful choice than a dog.
——————————————————————–

McDonalds, Burger King, Wendy’s, Carl’s Jr., Jack-In-the-Box, and Hardee’s are all in a race right now to get to that that puppy first and grind it into their gnarly burgers.

#120 dharma bum on 12.06.18 at 9:21 am

Ford Motor Company C.E.O. Jim Hackett openly admits that they are embarking on a worldwide major restructuring campaign, and in the future will be producing far less traditional vehicles. They want to become a “transportation technology” company. The wholesale cutting of jobs is a given.

Hear Jim Hackett speak about this:

http://freakonomics.com/podcast/ford/

“What’s going on is … a lot. Hackett recently announced a huge restructuring plan, hoping to cut $25 billion in costs; this includes a lot of layoffs and a realignment of how Ford does business in Europe, South America, and China. Hackett also announced that Ford will cut way back on making cars.”

“It’s beyond vehicles to transportation, and actually a transportation operating system.”

It’s not all bad. I hear Amazon is eyeing the Oakville plant to use it as a warehouse for snow shovels and ice choppers.

#121 Tater on 12.06.18 at 9:23 am

#106 mogulrider on 12.06.18 at 4:48 am
Lots of real estate pumpers here.
Interest rates will not pause much as they rise to 10-12% in the next 24 months.

The one piece everyone forgets or don’t know about is this.

Pension funds are in deep deep trouble after 10 years pf ZIRP.

Both public and private pension funds are deeply underfunded from lack of growth due ot zero bound.

Central banks will raise and will raise more than most people think.

We had 1000 year lows in rates and teh central banks are now behind the curve.

Yield curves are in trouble and are showing 2007 type behavior.

I guess the point of this memo is this.
Prepare for 10-12% interest rates far faster than you think.
—————————————————————
Wow. Need to take a screen shot of this. Probably the worst non-TCContrarian take I’ve seen in this comment section.

#122 young & foolish on 12.06.18 at 10:06 am

Soon, there will be “blood in the streets”.

#123 For those about to flop... on 12.06.18 at 10:09 am

Will that be debit or credit…

M44BC

“How Much Longer Until the U.S. Debt Bubble Bursts?

The American government is fast approaching the $22 Trillion mark in national debt. That’s about 137% of our entire GDP, one of the highest rates of indebtedness in the entire world.

If the government seems addicted to adding to the national balance sheet, then Americans have a similar obsession for personal debt. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data recently found that household debt has risen for 16 straight quarters. What does that look like today?

Our visualization paints a detailed picture of what’s really going on underneath the surface of alarming headlines about debt. There are different categories of personal debt, like mortgages, student loans, and home equity loans. Some of these are healthy for economic growth. Having a mortgage is good if it lets you build equity. Student loans represent an investment in yourself and usually bring about higher future earning potential. Car loans are likewise necessary because most people can’t afford to buy a vehicle outright.

Here’s the problem. Even if carrying certain kinds of personal debt at reasonable levels is a good financial decision, lots of Americans are in way over their heads. Demand is soaring forsubprime mortgages, which caused the housing crash 10 years ago. More than 44 million people carry a student loan and 10.7% default on their repayments every year. GM’s decision to cut 14,000 jobs is rooted in the fact that Americans prefer large SUVs and trucks to more efficient and affordable sedans. The average new vehicle now costs an astonishing $36,000, and delinquency rates are ever increasing.

And that’s just for the so-called “good” forms of personal debt. Credit card and home equity debt are both universally considered unhealthy because they fuel unsustainable levels of consumption in exchange for punitive interest rates. Good debt, like mortgages, usually don’t cost very much. Home loans are about 4.5% to 5.0% right now if you have good credit. But credit card rates start at 13.99% at the low end. And what about that $0.4T “other” bubble sitting at the right of the visual? That includes things like payday and car title loans. Only the companies actually offering these products think they’re good for the economy.

Debt isn’t an essential part of life. There are really only two ways to pay it off. You either have to increase your income, or cut things from your budget. Either way, paying off debt requires the discipline to devote the extra cash toward a long-term goal. And if past is prologue, Americans won’t be able to look to their leaders for inspiration.”

https://howmuch.net/articles/the-great-american-debt-bubble

#124 young & foolish on 12.06.18 at 10:15 am

Keep your eyes on France for upcoming social developments ….

#125 Howard on 12.06.18 at 10:36 am

#116 Alistair McLaughlin on 12.06.18 at 8:51 am

Oh, and if anyone wants to bring up immigration, have a look at California’s population growth over the past decade. Phenomenal, despite net out-migration of American citizens to other states (due to the high costs of living – sound familiar? IHDTC9 has described precisely the same process occurring in the GTA). California gets 100s of thousands of newcomers a year, and the Bay area sees its share. Yet it is seeing a 15.5% correction while the economy is still booming. Imagine what the next recession will do. In the Bay area…. and in the GTA. Regardless of mortgage rules, regardless of interest rates, regardless of immigration.

—————————————-

Per capita that is still well below what Canada/Toronto receive.

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2018/11/26/population-growth-canada-housing-immigrants_a_23601374/?utm_hp_ref=ca-business

Some 413,000 people arrived in Canada in the 12 months to July, a growth rate of 1.4 per cent, the fastest among G7 countries. The population passed the 37-million mark earlier this year, according to Statistics Canada.

That’s not counting border-crossers from the US or TFWs, btw.

Good thing Canada is building a new city the size of London ON every year to accommodate the newcomers /sarc.

#126 Alistair McLaughlin on 12.06.18 at 10:38 am

@#122 Flop, the scary thing is Canadian household debt is so much worse than American household debt. Household debt in Canada is 100% of GDP, and 170% of disposable income. That’s not just higher than the US today, it’s higher than the US was in 2008 just before the GFC. Where does that leave us?

#127 On The Hook on 12.06.18 at 11:09 am

Ontario is on the hook for $103 million plus a share collapse on a kill fee for the Hydro One takeover deal. Ford Nation makes me cry, and am seriously thinking of moving away to greener pastures.

#128 IHCTD9 on 12.06.18 at 11:18 am

#109 Howard on 12.06.18 at 6:09 am

Young Canadians had better look into acquiring second citizenships. Take your pick – US, Australia, New Zealand, UK, EU – just get a job abroad and stay long enough to get the passport. Invaluable to keep your options open.
______

The problem with this plan is that anywhere worth going (ie. the Western World), the song will remain the same. No kids, huge 3rd world immigration, and one overloaded crappy job market.

I think salvation for today’s youth can be had through choosing a career path that is not commonly also pursued by many of the immigrants. If there is a trend – don’t go there. Immigration numbers will keep going up indefinitely from here on in.

Another good idea is, if the immigrants are mostly headed to just a handful of areas (and indeed they are here in Canada), then avoid those places. Many won’t/can’t leave these areas, and huge job competition will drive wages and job security down (as has already happened in the GTA).

Do both of these, and never forget what technology is doing: Automation and AI.

Getting into anything to do with manufacturing, business admin, management, engineering etc is not a good plan IMHO.

A career with the forces, high end security, Police, Corrections, and pretty much any unionized government position is a good bet I think. Getting a small business or 2/3 going in a low cost area also has worked many times.

#129 Duane on 12.06.18 at 11:24 am

#1 Kevin
You have to pay for the premium subscription to get the modern mobile view.

#130 AB Boxster on 12.06.18 at 11:26 am

MoneySense.ca has its list of ‘Dividend All Stars’ for great dividend stocks in Canada.

Based on the 2018 list here are the following returns thus far:

Company YTD stock Dividend Yield
Bank of Montreal (BMO)  -6.65% 4.28%
CIBC (CM)  -11.45% 4.99%
Great-West Life (GWO)  -14.61% 5.04%
Power (POW)  -16.91% 5.96%
Power Financial (PWF)  -18.48% 6.01%
Sun Life Financial (SLF)  -8.17% 3.27%
TD Bank (TD) -2.93% 3.71%

Total Growth YTD: – 11.31
Annual Div Yield : 4.69%

Good thing that according to Santa Poloz, Canada is booming, with a strong economy, and great growth.

Hate to see how Canada’s best dividend paying companies would be performing in an actual poor economy.

You know, an economy where oil prices are hammered, well paying resource and manufacturing jobs are being lost, capital investment is leaving the country for better pastures, and federal deficits are high to stimulate the economy.

Good thing Canada is not in that kind of economy right now.

#131 Howard on 12.06.18 at 11:33 am

#127 IHCTD9 on 12.06.18 at 11:18 am

Lots of opportunities in Germany. Unlike in Canada where the “labour shortage” is largely a myth of the immigration lobby, in Germany claims of a shortage are more substantiated. Memo to young Canucks : LEARN GERMAN. Yes the language is tough but not anywhere near as difficult as its reputation would have people believe.

#132 Doug in London on 12.06.18 at 11:33 am

So how did a big GTA-area developer manage to go paws up, filing for bankruptcy protection? I keep reading in the comments section about how thousands of immigrants flood into the GTA each year, adding to housing demand. I also read where many so called experts say the biggest problem with housing in the GTA is lack of supply. If there really is increasing demand and limited supply of housing, how could a company that provides more of what is badly needed possibly fail?

#133 Rexx Rock on 12.06.18 at 11:34 am

Like I said so many times before.The debt is to high so this fairy tale of normalized interests rates is absurd.Drink the kool aid of higher rates to come.Rate cuts are coming.I can’t believe so many smart people fell for this con.I guess they listen to people like Poloz the clown who has as much credibilty as a convict on parole selling used cars.

#134 Alistair McLaughlin on 12.06.18 at 11:40 am

@#126, On the Hook, Mr. Market would disagree with you. Hydro One shares are up more than 4% today on the news – on a day when EVERYTHING ELSE IS WAY DOWN. The market is relieved this takeover did not go forward. Seems Ford inadvertently bumbled his way into a good decision.

#135 Alistair McLaughlin on 12.06.18 at 11:43 am

@#124 Howard, better buy that second GTA condo then.

#136 young & foolish on 12.06.18 at 11:45 am

Today it’s the Chinese executive … 2 days ago it was a Trump tweet …. tomorrow ???

No confidence in this market.

#137 IHCTD9 on 12.06.18 at 11:57 am

#116 Alistair McLaughlin on 12.06.18 at 8:51 am

Oh, and if anyone wants to bring up immigration, have a look at California’s population growth over the past decade. Phenomenal, despite net out-migration of American citizens to other states (due to the high costs of living – sound familiar? IHDTC9 has described precisely the same process occurring in the GTA). California gets 100s of thousands of newcomers a year, and the Bay area sees its share.
____

Interesting. I had mentioned Vancouver was also experiencing this same thing too, AND that lots of folks of all walks of life also bail out of Canada every year. Yet, despite all this movement; YVR, GTA, and Canada’s overall population keeps growing – massive influx of immigrants required to make this happen.

The more worrying thing here is what are the implications of what would be a very bad demographic shift if these actions were to keep trending? Established young born Canadians bailing and being replaced by ever more new 3rd world immigrants – all while the elderly sit tight.

What does the future hold for a city packed tight with seniors and brand new immigrants?

#138 Gregg in Victoria on 12.06.18 at 11:57 am

#20 FELIX
The creature pictured today would actually be a much more intelligent and useful choice than a dog.

Plus it would pay dividends in the form of consumable meat.

Fixed

#139 KLNR on 12.06.18 at 12:05 pm

@#123 young & foolish on 12.06.18 at 10:15 am
Keep your eyes on France for upcoming social developments ….
_____________________________

France is the worst for not letting immigrants actually integrate.

#140 MF on 12.06.18 at 12:44 pm

Howard on 12.06

Not a negative but a positive.

Those immigrants are potential customers for existing businesses too. And they often start their own.

I thought this blog was pro business? Where do you think the customers come from?

MF

#141 JInVic on 12.06.18 at 12:48 pm

I really hope they don’t buckle on the stress test. Seriously, let it do its job for a while and have things reset. Capitulating to an industry full of idiots and thieves is no way to run the show.

#142 under the radar on 12.06.18 at 1:38 pm

#131
Most of their properties are in the development stages waiting for approvals and not generating enough or any cash to service their debt.I examined the CCAA filing and can advise their properties are mostly over leveraged and cannot support the debt acquisition and servicing costs. The principle is on the hook personally for much of the debt.

#143 gattaca on 12.06.18 at 1:58 pm

Arrest of Huawei exec is going send a chill to Chinese real estate buyers in Canada.

Since Canada appears to kowtowing to US interests, Canada as a safer haven view will crumble.

#144 Howard on 12.06.18 at 2:05 pm

#138 KLNR on 12.06.18 at 12:05 pm
@#123 young & foolish on 12.06.18 at 10:15 am
Keep your eyes on France for upcoming social developments ….
_____________________________

France is the worst for not letting immigrants actually integrate.

——————————————

Is that so?

Well I’m an expat in France and I integrated without much difficulty. If you speak the language and respect the culture there is no issue.

The problem is more that some immigrants refuse to integrate, not that the French won’t let them.

#145 mike from mtl on 12.06.18 at 2:14 pm

#129 AB Boxster on 12.06.18 at 11:26 am

MoneySense.ca has its list of ‘Dividend All Stars’ for great dividend stocks in Canada.

////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

This is precisely why blindly chasing yield is a losing strategy. Total return on index is -5.0% YTD so not much different.

#146 La Marseillaise on 12.06.18 at 2:22 pm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KTsg9i6lvqU
While going to university I met this student from France, and asked her out to a movie for the evening. In this scene she stood up shouting while singing this song. I would not worry about France because nationalism will prevail in the end.

#147 Bigriders nonno on 12.06.18 at 2:32 pm

#113 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.06.18 at 8:20 am

Commuting through the Lowerbrainland ….I’m noticing the same “For Sale” signs in front of the same places for months now,not weeks,….months.
It must be killing Realtors to actually work for a sale….and those obscene commissions…buh-bye. :)

Let’s see what the indebted, Visa bill laden, non mortgage qualifying public does in Jan when December’s non sales numbers hit new depths in the Vancouver blood bath.
“Uppa Uppa Uppa! It always goes Uppa!” …… until it doesnt.
Panic Listings in Spring 2019?
Its been 35 years since the real estate meltdown of the 1980’s graced us with it’s cold icy grip….time for a refresher course in the risks of debt in the Lower Brain Land?
Long overdue.
——————–

You makafun of a nonno ina hisa ‘uppa Uppa UPPA” but a you maka puzza ina da elevator anddis isa ok? So many timesa I smella someone anddisa not verry nice.
———————–
#112 Frank The Tank on 12.06.18 at 7:16 am

#55 Bigrider on 12.05.18 at 6:59 pm
Frank the tank and everyone else for that matter, I beg you not to write about my nonno being right about the RE market in the GTA.

I live with him as I can no longer afford to buy a home (waited) and I am tired of getting whacked in the head with his worn out garden shoes.

———————————————

My condolences.

Do you at least get really good homemade gnocchi?
————————
My wife nonna, she maka da best homemade gnocci (fata in casa) froma scratch you ever tasted. Sugo de pomodore fresca for da sauce

#148 young & foolish on 12.06.18 at 3:11 pm

What’s wrong with immigrants? Some of my best contacts are with new immigrants. I think fear of the “other” has gotten the better of too many people. Canada and the US is mostly made up of immigrants (aboriginal peoples excepted).

#149 James on 12.06.18 at 3:46 pm

#142 Howard on 12.06.18 at 2:05 pm

#138 KLNR on 12.06.18 at 12:05 pm
@#123 young & foolish on 12.06.18 at 10:15 am
Keep your eyes on France for upcoming social developments ….
_____________________________

France is the worst for not letting immigrants actually integrate.

——————————————

Is that so?

Well I’m an expat in France and I integrated without much difficulty. If you speak the language and respect the culture there is no issue.

The problem is more that some immigrants refuse to integrate, not that the French won’t let them.
___________________________________________
Exactement mon ami. Malheureusement, ici au Canada, notre gouvernement encourage la non-intégration par rapport au melting-pot au sud de nous.

#150 KLNR on 12.06.18 at 3:48 pm

@#142 Howard on 12.06.18 at 2:05 pm
#138 KLNR on 12.06.18 at 12:05 pm
@#123 young & foolish on 12.06.18 at 10:15 am
Keep your eyes on France for upcoming social developments ….
_____________________________

France is the worst for not letting immigrants actually integrate.

——————————————

Is that so?

Well I’m an expat in France and I integrated without much difficulty. If you speak the language and respect the culture there is no issue.

The problem is more that some immigrants refuse to integrate, not that the French won’t let them.
________________________________________

I bet you’re a white dude right?
and not what I’ve read about France over the years.

#151 James on 12.06.18 at 3:50 pm

Surprise!

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-12-03/u-s-yield-curve-just-inverted-that-s-huge

#152 PastThePeak on 12.06.18 at 3:59 pm

#136 IHCTD9 on 12.06.18 at 11:57 am
#116 Alistair McLaughlin on 12.06.18 at 8:51 am

Oh, and if anyone wants to bring up immigration, have a look at California’s population growth over the past decade. Phenomenal, despite net out-migration of American citizens to other states (due to the high costs of living – sound familiar? IHDTC9 has described precisely the same process occurring in the GTA). California gets 100s of thousands of newcomers a year, and the Bay area sees its share.
____

Interesting. I had mentioned Vancouver was also experiencing this same thing too, AND that lots of folks of all walks of life also bail out of Canada every year. Yet, despite all this movement; YVR, GTA, and Canada’s overall population keeps growing – massive influx of immigrants required to make this happen.

The more worrying thing here is what are the implications of what would be a very bad demographic shift if these actions were to keep trending? Established young born Canadians bailing and being replaced by ever more new 3rd world immigrants – all while the elderly sit tight.

What does the future hold for a city packed tight with seniors and brand new immigrants?
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I would say, from the perspective of the Liberal parties, this is a highly desired outcome. The “natural born” Canadians emigrating for better career chances are likely a mixed bag of (potential) Liberal, Conservative and NDP voters. They are replaced by immigrants which are overwhelming herded to vote for Liberals, the self-branded party of immigration.

The Liberals couldn’t care less about the “brain drain” – it is beneficial to their future election prospects.

#153 Rexx Rock on 12.06.18 at 4:19 pm

IHCTD2

I see some people understand whats going on.The smart Canadians do the opposite.They work like dogs,save and invest and then leave for cheaper countries to live out their golden years.Thailand,Mexico,Vietnam,Bali,Malaysia,Argentina and the list goes on.Mass immigration is great for small business owners because labour is the biggest expense.Open up a small business, here in Victoria labour is plentiful and cheap to the rest of Canada.

#154 n1tro on 12.06.18 at 4:21 pm

Seems suppression of news is quite strong these days. France is burning yet little to no news…

700 students arrested…good luck trying to find the news on google
https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article185103854/Frankreich-Mehr-als-700-Schueler-nach-Protesten-festgenommen.html

#155 AA on 12.06.18 at 4:51 pm

On The Hook on 12.06.18 at 11:09 am
Ontario is on the hook for $103 million plus a share collapse on a kill fee for the Hydro One takeover deal. Ford Nation makes me cry, and am seriously thinking of moving away to greener pastures.
_______________________________

If you were truly concerned about fiscal irresponsibility; you would have left sometime within the last 15 years

#156 jess on 12.06.18 at 5:04 pm

the three d’s of finance
deregulation, desupervision, and de facto decriminalization –

Bill Black : “We have trashed a regulatory system that was the envy of the world. It helped bring us prosperity, far greater economic stability, fewer and less severe recessions, and reduced income inequality. It made freer enterprise possible because the regulatory cops on the beat helped limit the Gresham’s dynamic in which bad ethics drives good ethics out of the marketplace. When frauds prosper honest businesses are among the victims. The three de’s have brought us recurrent, intensifying financial crises, the end of any material gains by the middle class, losses for the working class, the expansion of poverty and extreme inequality, and the domination of our political system by crony capitalism.”

http://treasureislands.org/the-three-ds-of-finance-and-the-race-to-the-bottom/

=========
Butina who went from that sexy mag cover dressed in black and holding her gun ornaments for many to view….to sitting in a small windowless room wearing a baggy orange jumpsuit

The two purchases may have looked coincidental; Red Eagle and AMAG appear at first glance to be separate firms. But each is closely connected to a major conservative media-consulting firm called National Media Research, Planning and Placement. In fact, the three outfits are so intertwined that both the NRA’s and the Trump campaign’s ad buys were authorized by the same person: National Media’s chief financial officer, Jon Ferrell.

“This is very strong evidence, if not proof, of illegal coordination,” said Larry Noble, a former general counsel for the Federal Election Commission. “This is the heat of the general election, and the same person is acting as an agent for the NRA and the Trump campaign.”

Documents Point to Illegal Campaign Coordination Between Trump and the NRA
Trump and the gun group used the same consultants to spearhead TV ad blitzes at the height of the 2016 election, likely in violation of federal law.
Mike Spies December 6, 2018 1:25 PM
https://www.thetrace.org/(
in partnership with motherjones)

#157 Jorge on 12.07.18 at 10:26 am

Don’t listen to #1, the site works just fine on mobile. I’m reading it on a mobile right now. Special ‘mobile-optimized” themes are lame and limiting.