Marianne runs two car dealerships (not GM) and seems good at it. Ten years from retirement, she has business equity and an investment portfolio of just over two million. Sweet. But M suffers an affliction. She’s a Type A person who makes quick, gut decisions and takes her own advice above all others.
After doing fine for a year, in October her portfolio got the shakes like everything else. She called. “It’s down 2%,” she bellowed. “What gives?”
That was an easy answer. US stocks were blowing off froth in an overdue correction. Trump was being Trump, whipping up America for a Mexican invasion. The US midterms were happening. Interest rates were rising. Trade wars were continuing. Oil prices were swooning. Virtually every asset class was being blindly dumped as markets went risk-off.
Ignore it, I told Marianne. You don’t go and shutter your dealership when a seasonal slump hits, but rather hang in and anticipate sales will improve. Same with your portfolio. It’s balanced and diversified and boring. Relax. By the way, I said, my accounts have exactly the same stuff as you – and I’m not going to cash.
But she did. Marianne took a $40,000 paper loss and turned it into a real one. That, I told her sympathetically, was simply and truly dumb. ‘You’ll regret it.’ Two weeks later, the assets she punted restored. The forty grand she lost would have been returned to her portfolio. But she tossed it away.
Now she’s got millions sitting in a cashable bank GIC paying 1.9%, fully taxable, not even pacing inflation. And here I thought she had oodles of business acumen.
Why, I asked, did you do that? Answer: she read on some doomer blog that markets would crash. The US was going into recession. Things would get terrible. It was time to run and hide – despite the global economy growing, more Americans working than at any time in half a century, stocks near record high and corporate profits shooting out the lights. In the end, fear won.
What’s the story now?
The market rally in New York and Toronto on Wednesday was monumental. Perhaps pivotal. It occurred after Fed boss Jay Powell gave a speech saying US interest rates – after nine increases – were ‘just about neutral’. Neutral is the Holy Grail for central bankers – the point at which the cost of money neither encourages nor discourages economic activity. It was only a few months ago that the guy was convinced we were ‘a long way’ from neutral, leading markets to brace for five or more additional hikes.
So what changed?
The market roiled. Trump tweeted. Oil swooned. US house sales fell as mortgages swelled. The Fed looked at the impact of its actions to date and apparently reconsidered its aggressive path forward. So while everyone expects another rate hike in December, there likely won’t be three or four more next year. The markets roared higher as one big negative faded.
Now, two more to go.
The next Big Thing happens Saturday at the G20 summit in Buenos Aires – probably the most anticipated political gabfest in decades. In the midst of a global trade war that could get worse – or dramatically fizzle – Donald Trump will sit down to dinner with China’s boss, Xi Jinping. If they don’t see eye-to-eye the US leader has said existing tariffs on Chinese goods will double and billions more be hit. But if they do agree on a trade framework (as Trump has done with the EU and Canada/Mexico), markets will cheer again.
Here’s the latest: “President Donald Trump said he is very close to “doing something” with China ahead of a planned meeting with Xi Jinping, raising expectations again that the two leaders may be able to hash out a ceasefire in their trade war.” (Bloomberg)
The third hurdle is Brexit. UK leader Theresa May has the backing of European leaders for a workable departure from the EU while still maintaining trade ties. The thing goes to a vote in Parliament soon with the Bank of England warning of tough days for Britain if it doesn’t pass.
Here’s the view from my fancy portfolio manager buddy Ryan, always happy to show up and confuse us with a chart. “Technically, the S&P 500 is coming up to a key level around 2,740 to 2,780. This marks the confluence of the short-term downtrend, and the 50- and 200-day moving averages. We need to see a break about this range for us to move out of this current correction and resume the uptrend. I expect this to occur.”
Here’s the chart. Phew.
Well, I haven’t called Marianne in a few days. No point. She made an emotional decision, ignored reasonable advice, and blew it. Human nature being what it is, she’ll be defensive, maybe arguing that the End of Days could still come next week. Everybody wants to think they’re money geniuses, even when they suck at it. So, why push?
This is a volatile world. It won’t stop. Worrying about every little gyration, burp, plop, pop or pizzle that comes along is pointless. Exhausting. Marianne should focus on next year’s models. Because, yes, there’ll be a new year. And many thereafter.
About the picture...
Paolo writes this of Ruby: “She is a small Labradoodle with a hint of golden retriever. Unfortunately for her, she lives in Sudbury, but just for a little longer, as I am retiring to Niagara. She loves walking in the forest, chasing anything that moves. She eats everything, from celery and cucumbers to avocado and eggs with truffle oil. After dinner, while I am watching tv, she drops one of her toys by my feet and stares at me until I lie on the carpet and play. Contrary to my wife, she is always very happy to see me when I come back from work. Ruby is my shadow. Lovely.”
147 comments ↓
After it being confirmed that I am an unwanted dirty immigrant, and then add the fact that I consider, and have called myself, an old school blue collared bum on this very blog, now means that I am an apparent redneck as well.
Did not see that one coming.
It has been a rough week for the Flopster on this beast of a blog.
It’s o.k, live and let live.
It could have been worse.
I could have voted Liberal…
M44BC
What’s the big deal? She can write off the loss and move into a Tangerine or Oaken GIC at 3.6%. She’ll make that loss back in a year and avoid any further loss since 2019 and 2020 could be scary. Stuff as much in TFSA and RSP as she can. Still keep market funds in balanced but less % of it. And if she keeps in the GIC for 5 years that’s almost $200,000 on $1MM principal! The markets have been trading sideways all year and we may be in for more years of that. Give take give take.
The future is so bright I have got to wear shades.
Next stop Cabo.
See you snowflakes!
OMG ! look at the chart.
I see it’s going to breakout past the resistance level.
You can CLEARLY see the head and shoulders getting pierced below the neckline, AND the upside down cup with handle. Watch out.
Man, I’d be dancing a jig if I had 2 mil with 10 years left to go yet.
Either way she’s got it made in the shade, but that 40k would bought a lot of yellow (or red) iron…
I feel Marianne’s pain. When I was still new to investing I did a lot of research on a company called Medifast. It was a small company focused on selling weight loss meals at a time when obesity was increasing in the US. My analysis told me it would be a good long term stock. But markets and talking heads on CNBC spooked me. I had bought 1000 shares of MED for $8 and sold it for $9. I made $1000 profit. Today the stock is $147. If I had trusted my analysis and just held I would have had $139,000 profit (before tax).
Since then I’ve learned to ignore market fluctuations and talking heads. I do the analysis and if I believe the long term story is intact I continue to hold for the long term. I make sure I’m diversified by industry and geography and make sure no one stock is ever more than 5% of my portfolio. Now when I buy a Infrastructure stock like BIP or a consumer discretionary stock like SHAK (https://smartersquirrel.com/invest/will%20shake%20shack%20do%20to%20burgers%20what%20starbucks%20did%20to%20coffee) or a financial stock like TD or a REIT like CRT.UN I tend to hold for the long term unless something changes fundamentally.
It seems to me that’s the best way to go.
If I had 1 mil I’d retire today at 40. Different strokes for different folks, folks.
Ya lost me at “confluence”
:(
An Astounding Fact
Alberta Premier Rachel Notley noted that Canada had not built an oil pipeline from Alberta to Tidewater in 70 years (That was the existing TransMountain line).
I don’t know if any other oil pipelines connect indirectly to tidewater/ Enbridge line 3? But in any case the fact that that the only direct line was built 70 years ago is astounding.
The over-sensitivity here is palpable.
I never said blue collar people were “redneck”.
Everyone here knows what I meant; truck nuts, confederate flag and a staunch intolerance for anyone not named Mike Smith.
Move on.
Surprised,
Did Jerome Powel just go political?! The optics are for sure indicating…. Word is, lots of stacked short positions on US Bonds,oil, pricing of assets, etc. driving some portion of volatility. I am sure the enlightened here have come across this not-so-robust absorption of US Treasuries:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-bonds-foreign-graphic/foreign-buyers-find-u-s-treasuries-less-appealing-idUSKCN1NV27V
The Fed may have a few more hikes than they would have the broader world believe(forward guidance is in the rear view). US is(?) a safe haven for smart money, but the Fed might not stop rather keep sweetening the deal, seeing absorption rate is slowing.
Two Cents
AB41M
Trump: we need to build a border wall with Mexico to keep out…..well, not Mexicans. They cross legally every day and head home when their business is done.
The Mexican army is not invading. They gave up the territory lost in the Spanish American war long ago and are not currently trying to get it back.
If anything, Mexico should be sending Trump a bill for housing and feeding all of the illegal migrants currently stuck at the US border.
These people are not Mexican. They are predominantly from Central American countries. If they could have, they would have avoided Mexico entirely and headed straight for the USA. Unfortunately, geography being what it is and the human ability to swim being somewhat limited, they had no choice but to walk through Mexico. So walk through they did.
The migrants are an American problem. Mexico is just helping out. US policies in Central America have created the hell holes these people fled from, and not Mexican policies.
In other news, it appears to be extremely difficult for a six month old to own an equities portfolio. The poor little dude is stuck with GICs unless one of his parents wants to set up a trust fund.
Which sucks. Because they now tax the crap out of trust funds.
And I hate GICs
Disagree with the authors conclusion here. Yes in the long run a balanced portfolio will increase in value. But this is a person approaching retirement that has built millions in wealth to finance that retirement. She doesn’t have a long run to wait out a ‘possible’ sell off.
Risking what you can’t afford to lose for something you don’t need is one of the biggest mistakes investors make. Preserving capital as one approaches the need to use that capital should be your first, second, and third objective.
Being 10 years from a retirement that could last 30 years means a smart person stays invested. – Garth
Oil by Rail Economics
You might think that if buying hundreds of oil tanker cars to form new dedicated unit trains out of Alberta was economic, the private sector ought to be doing it.
But consider that such trains are intended to boost the price of oil in Alberta. The benefit of that would flow to dozens of companies (at least).
So the project might clearly be “profitable” for Alberta as a whole even if not necessarily profitable for a private company (like CN Rail) to do it. Of course, I expect CN and CP WILL be involved in hauling the cars. If nothing else they will be getting revenue for the use of their tracks.
Lo and behold, we may have a situation where ONLY the government can make this rail project work. It’s enough to explode the heads of dedicated government bashers. Alberta can count not only any profit from hauling oil but higher income taxes and royalties from the boost Alberta oil prices. And that is not even counting the indirect benefits of a stronger economy in Alberta.
To the extent that there is any possibility that the government trains can make money, especially when the benefit of added income taxes and royalties from every oil producer is added in, it would seem wise for government to do this IF the private sector can’t. I see no excuse for the federal government not to participate. The federal government can share revenue charged for shipping the oil plus will get added income taxes. Is this not a good project for the federal infrastructure bank? Or what about that new federal department of pipeline buying?
#6 SmarterSquirrel on 11.29.18 at 5:44 pm
What’s your annualized return vs a balanced portfolio over the same amount of time. Has all the effort analyzing companies been worth it?
Not something I’d ever do – but just curious the rational for individual stock picking people have.
Taking profits is not a bad thing after a 300$% return or more from 2009.
I’ll never forget Nortel as Bell holders got free shares. My father in law who got several hundred grand in free shares refused to sell them because he didn’t want to pay tax.
How did that work out….
great returns require locking in profits. Its good investing
Holding on for 10-20% after tripling your money is foolish and that is why trillions were lost in 2008. Taking profits in 2007 after a great run from 2004 is just smart investing – period.
Holding on for eternity ridiculous.
The business cycle is ending for now…
If your comfort level was reached then any good money manager would tell you to take some off the table..
A bad manager tells you stay all in all the time..
At some point soon those who hold will regret it…
It’ll be my entry point
again
Who cares about inflation when you’ve made 300% or more form 2009.
Its called re balancing
I’m with Marianne – way too much noise out there in the world and at some point you just shrug and say “enough” – I had the old balanced portfolio for 15 years and woke up one day and didn’t care for the way I was always checking it and worrying – GIC for me – Garth you can commence with your usual put down but meh
RATM
Wow ! Excellent Macro analysis of what’s really going on Garth!
You hit all the resistance news that I have been reading about also!
The charts Ryan shows us is a visual GUI representation of all the macro events swirling around us right now. Great chart Ryan!
#2
You can’t write off a loss if it’s not a loss.
Buying a bunch of stocks at $20, which then rise to $40, before falling to $30 – at which point which you sell – is not a Capital Loss in mine, or the CRA’s book.
Just because she’s down $40k from her high water mark, doesn’t mean she’s underwater according to her ACB.
I could be wrong, but since the market was just blowing off steam after months of romp, I’m assuming she’s only lost some of the gain. No advantages here.
Hey Ace Goodheart. Its called RESP. Load up with ETF’s or just go VGRO. Get 20% upfront and let it go. Read on. Garth doesn’t like 1 fund but its Life Choices you make
GICs are not the only form of Income
#13 John on 11.29.18 at 6:11 pm said:
“Risking what you can’t afford to lose for something you don’t need is one of the biggest mistakes investors make. Preserving capital as one approaches the need to use that capital should be your first, second, and third objective.”
Being 10 years from a retirement that could last 30 years means a smart person stays invested. – Garth
************************************
Right stay invested. And how hard would it be to set up a $2 million balanced portfolio that throws off 4% cash ($80k annually) and where that income is available without the need to ever sell a single investment and where the underlying mostly equity investments will likely grow over the decades? Ask JSS or Bankish.
Any desired selling could be done only at opportune times and live off the cash income in years the market is down.
Being 10 years from a retirement that could last 30 years means a smart person stays invested. – Garth
————–
Here we go again:
Save and invest to have enough money at 95 to sustain the lifestyle that you had when you were 55.
I’m not an actuary but I think that the probability of a 55 year old reaching 95 and still spending like a 55 year old is probably very low.
May your wizkid Ryan can do some calculations.
Personally, I think it’s just to scare people into over-saving and investing.
Most people like a full life and to pass on some good fortune. – Garth
Doug t on 11.29.18 at 6:19 pm
I’m with Marianne – way too much noise out there in the world and at some point you just shrug and say “enough” – I had the old balanced portfolio for 15 years and woke up one day and didn’t care for the way I was always checking it and worrying – GIC for me – Garth you can commence with your usual put down but meh
RATM
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Alessio on 11.29.18 at 5:29 pm
What’s the big deal? She can write off the loss and move into a Tangerine or Oaken GIC at 3.6%. She’ll make that loss back in a year and avoid any further loss since 2019 and 2020 could be scary. Stuff as much in TFSA and RSP as she can. Still keep market funds in balanced but less % of it. And if she keeps in the GIC for 5 years that’s almost $200,000 on $1MM principal! The markets have been trading sideways all year and we may be in for more years of that. Give take give take.
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Just curious but are you two guys expressing the same level of fear and virtually instantaneous exiting of risk assets toward the risk asset of real estate ,or do you simply hold on , not value your RE holding(s) daily , ignore and carry on ?
Ya , exactly what I thought.
If moving the money has improved her quality of life and not impacted her long term objectives, then it’s fine.
I think going 100% GIC is a blunder but moving 50%-60% over to GIC’s if it helps you sleep at night is not the worst thing in the world assuming they will still meet their objectives.
Financial planning as we know, is about more then generating a return.
#113 Crazyfox on 11.29.18 at 2:51 pm
#107 AGuyInVancouver on 11.29.18 at 1:26 pm
The problem with a $ 20 billion dollar deficit from the Libs is that when one looks at the record of the previous government, one will see that the Harper government ran up $ 170 billion in his last 8 years averaging $ 21 billion a year.
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Sorry but you don’t get to selectively ignore the ~$50 billion in debt that Harper paid down in 2006-8 nor the breakeven/small surplus in 2015.
All told Harper added about $120 billion net to the debt. Not good, but you can lay a large portion of that at the feet of the GFC.
Put another way, Trudeau is on track to rack up almost as much debt in 4 years that Harper did in 10, and without a recession driving the spending.
#10 Frank The Tank on 11.29.18 at 6:01 pm
The over-sensitivity here is palpable.
I never said blue collar people were “redneck”.
Everyone here knows what I meant; truck nuts, confederate flag and a staunch intolerance for anyone not named Mike Smith.
Move on.
——————————-
Not that I care one way or another, but I would just point out that if you re-wrote your original statement, but substituted the word “redneck” with any other racial derogatory term applying to any race other than white, that comment would never be published here, you would be banned and labeled a racist.
It’s fascinating that racism is tolerable to leftists as long as it’s against whites.
And for the record, country folk are some of the nicest, down to earth people you’ll meet. I know because in one of previous businesses, I traveled all across Ontario, visited and dealt with clients in almost every small town spanning between Windsor and Ottawa and as far north Huntsville and beyond.
The people that were the worst to deal with were the city people. Go figure.
RE: #20 unbalanced on 11.29.18 at 6:25 pm
“Hey Ace Goodheart. Its called RESP. Load up with ETF’s or just go VGRO. Get 20% upfront and let it go. Read on. Garth doesn’t like 1 fund but its Life Choices you make”
Yeah got one of those. Lifetime contribution is 50K or so, and if you put more than 2700 per year in, you miss out on the $500.00 per year the govt throws in as a matching contribution.
That is pocket change. I could fill that up tomorrow.
We were looking to give him something more substantial.
But babies cannot hold equities.
Oh well.
Powell’s spine might be softening due to Trump’s whipping but the $200 trillion LIBOR is not buying it
LIBOR @ ten year highs
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-29/what-easing-libor-surges-most-8-months-squeezing-199-trillion-credit
From transcript of speech by Jerome Powell – “Interest rates are still low by historical standards, and they remain just below the broad range of estimates of
the level that would be neutral for the economy –
that is, neither speeding up nor slowing down growth. My FOMC colleagues and I, as well as many private
sector economists, are forecasting continued solid growth, low unemployment, and inflation near 2 percent.”
You Garth Turner have been misled by the media and not done your homework on what the Fed Chief said like most herd followers do. Interest rates are still going up next month….
As I stated. – Garth
If one mans [or women’s] word can change the direction of the markets, it makes me wonder about the fundamentals, i guess they don’t matter any more. The hope of more cheap money to invest seems to be all that does matter.
I love how Garth always understates GIC rates. Newsflash, if you were in GICs for the last year you’d be further ahead than if you were in stocks.
Newsflash no. 2, stocks shake and sputter when rates are increased. Why? Because we’re in a bubble that’s fueled by cheap money. The party eventually as to end and this woman’s gut feelings are right.
I’m with Garth … stay invested … even though I don’t think returns will be stellar for awhile going forward.
#16
Far from over, long ways to go..
1) Powell said without saying it that the economy is too weak to raise rates. The market isn’t quite getting that message.
2) The S&P 500 slammed it’s head on the 200 day moving average and stopped dead in it’s tracks. Not conclusive but not encouraging either.
Marianne may have more investing instincts than she is being given credit for. Or not. Either way it’s far too soon for the touchdown dance. This market is still vulnerable.
Being retired, I like to have a 5-year plan. I keep enough for our 5-year needs aside in laddered GICs or cash/ money market etfs. The rest stays invested in mainly dividend and income etfs, preferreds and some growthier (fairly safe/ managed money) investments like BAM.A, BIP.UN and BRK.B.
As time goes on, with cap gains and dividend/ interest income, I add to the cash/ GICs to always have about 5 years worth of ultra-safe stuff. I realize this is sort of a luzury, but it allows me to stay mostly (80%) invested in stocks and etfs, while allowing me to sleep well at night – and not to be tempted to sell in a downturn, even a 20% plus one. I play with some stocks in our TFSAs for fun and excitement.
Everyone has their right “balance”, but you have to get used to your own risk tolerance and what you do in a severe downturn – one that appears to have no end (like 2008 – which was a great learning opportunity).
Dear God. Canadian MSM 24/7 anti-Trump rhetoric.
It’s official. Canada is no longer owned by the British. Canadians are now the subjects of the unelected UN.
What a difference a year makes. Never saw this garbage last year.
And they’re love of T2 is absolutely nauseating.
Can leave fast enough…dont the door hit my back side…
Somehow, Ruby’s expression does not denote joy at her attire. She looks like a very dignified dog.
Coulda, woulda, shoulda & the one that got away. Meh. But with 2 million in the bag a decade before retirement, Marianne has nothing to worry about. Plus if she really is as described, she will only retire if she has no other choice.
#23
Sold my house in Victoria just over a year ago made a bucket load
RATM
I understand Marianne’s decision.
She’s a true Venus.
She’s worked her tail off to get where she is and, as her retirement approaches, security now has a capital “S”. We Venus folks tend to get a bit insecure as the years roll by…as though we might not have deserved to have done well. It’s an odd thing, but present nevertheless.
Marianne had Garth’s critical thinking to get her portfolio to this stage, and that’s good.
But now the measly 1.9% will allow her to sleep more soundly, and help to ease doubt and fear.
I get it; there won’t be a second chance as the senior years approach.
Best wishes, Marianne.
Today’s pic: Ruby’s a delight!
A previous pic: I’m still struggling with the look in Luna’s eyes…she shows her mistress’ fate on her face.
#36 Smoking Man on 11.29.18 at 7:47 pm
Dear God. Canadian MSM 24/7 anti-Trump rhetoric.
It’s official. Canada is no longer owned by the British. Canadians are now the subjects of the unelected UN.
What a difference a year makes. Never saw this garbage last year.
And they’re love of T2 is absolutely nauseating.
Can leave fast enough…dont the door hit my back side…
_ _ _
Really? It seems to be an excruciatingly long goodbye.
I know a few months back, Shawn Allen and others disagreed with my claim that rising central bank policy rates are not good for bank shareholders. At the time I believe it was suggested that (paraphrased) how dare I question the wisdom of guys like Warren Buffet who have been deploying significant capital into the financial stocks.
Well we now have the financial reporting of TD, BNS, CM, and RY.
Over the past year, the Bank of Canada has raised the policy rate by 100bp, ie: 4 25bp hikes. The US Fed has done similar.
TD, net interest margin, that is, the spread between what TD pays for funding, and what they are able to invest at, 2.87% in Q4 2018, and 2.86% in Q4 2017.
CM, Q4 2017 = 1.72%, Q4 2018 = 1.67%. Actually shrunk YoY.
BNS, 4bp of growth YoY. So much for the the 100bp of Bank of Canada increases having much impact.
RY, 1.66% to 1.67% this year. Literally 1bp growth for 100bp of Bank of Canada (and roughly equivalent Fed) policy rate increases.
Meanwhile as the central banks hike rates, they significantly increase the risk in the underlying portfolios. And drive the yield curve closer to inversion. To only increase net interest margin by a handful of basis points for every 100bp of increase to the Bank of Canada policy target (or Fed Funds for the US operations) definitively proves that higher rates are not particularly good for bank stocks, especially when significantly more risk is taken to achieve only miniscule improvements in margin. Additionally, it logically follows that higher rates will cause investors to more heavily discount the cashflows arising from common equity securities, long-term fixed rate preferred shares and long-term debt issues.
#14 Shawn Allen on 11.29.18 at 6:16 pm
Oil by Rail Economics
—————————————————————
I don’t believe that the railways have the capacity to handle the amount of oil that is currently being produced. The number of tank cars required would be incredible. Shippers of grain are constantly complaining of rail delays in getting the grain to ports. If people are concerned about oil spills with ocean vessels I would think that they would also be concerned about the very possible derailments that could occur by shipping via rail. Keep in mind that railways are built along river valleys and one can only imagine what would happen if we had a 100 car train of crude suddenly end up in the Fraser or Skeena rivers. Build that pipeline.
Marianne? Somebody has to be on the other side of our trades.
#15 Waiverless on 11.29.18 at 6:16 pm
It’s a good question. As of today’s close my avg annual return is just over 7%. Which appears to be inline with balanced funds I’ve looked at. So why bother with all the effort?
Several reasons I suppose…
To me it seems holding individual dividend growth stocks has allowed for a quicker growth of passive income than holding ETFs would allow. Is it just me, or does it seem dividends from ETFs never seem as high nor as quickly growing as from individual companies…for example if you compare holding TD, BNS, and RY vs holding a Canadian Bank ETF… maybe Garth or one of the Saturday guest writers can explain why?
In down markets, if I need cash flow, I don’t have to sell a holding at a loss, I can just collect the dividend income and use that. During the great financial crisis, for example, Canadian bank stocks dropped in value, but they did not cut their dividends and kept on paying them.
I actually lost my job of 10 years a year ago, and despite not working for the last year, I haven’t had to sell a single position to free up cash. I’ve been living all year on dividend/distribution income, so when this downturn hit that made Marianne panic sell, I just kept on holding. I didn’t need to sell a holding to free up cash, I had steady passive income coming in from my portfolio. If I was in ETFs, I don’t think I would have the same sense of calm that I have with individual dividend stocks paying me a passive income because I think the amount of dividends from ETFs would be much lower, forcing me to cash out part of my portfolio.
I was originally creating my own retirement income portfolio after speaking with my dad about how I don’t have a pension. (https://smartersquirrel.com/how-much-do-you-need-to-retire) But as it turns out, creating that retirement income portfolio of dividend stocks has helped me immensely during this year of not working.
Another reason is, you gotta do something to keep your brain active. For me, I enjoy reading quarterly reports from companies I follow, I like creating spreadsheets and the challenge of figuring out which businesses will do well into the future.
Maybe I’m wrong about the cash flow from a balanced etf portfolio not being as significant or as quickly growing as holding selected dividend growth stocks, but I’m happy to be corrected and to learn.
So in short, my returns are on par with a balanced portfolio, but I feel there are certain benefits to creating my own portfolio of stocks.
#26 When Will They Raise Rates? on 11.29.18 at 6:56 pm
#10 Frank The Tank on 11.29.18 at 6:01 pm
The over-sensitivity here is palpable.
I never said blue collar people were “redneck”.
Everyone here knows what I meant; truck nuts, confederate flag and a staunch intolerance for anyone not named Mike Smith.
Move on.
——————————-
Not that I care one way or another, but I would just point out that if you re-wrote your original statement, but substituted the word “redneck” with any other racial derogatory term applying to any race other than white, that comment would never be published here, you would be banned and labeled a racist.
It’s fascinating that racism is tolerable to leftists as long as it’s against whites.
And for the record, country folk are some of the nicest, down to earth people you’ll meet. I know because in one of previous businesses, I traveled all across Ontario, visited and dealt with clients in almost every small town spanning between Windsor and Ottawa and as far north Huntsville and beyond.
The people that were the worst to deal with were the city people. Go figure.
—————————
I have suddenly developed a great appreciation for Garth’s struggle here on this board.
CIBC was down 3% on the day. For those stock pickers out there, is this a buying opportunity or better to stick with the big boys like TD and RY? The 4.8% divvy is juicy.
Frank # 10,
“The over-sensitivity here is palpable.”
————————–
Yes, some can’t handle criticism, without throwing a hissy fit.
#31 none on 11.29.18 at 7:20 pm
“I love how Garth always understates GIC rates. Newsflash, if you were in GICs for the last year you’d be further ahead than if you were in stocks.”
Which doesn’t prove anything. But if you think you’re going to be able to retire someday by investing in an asset class (Savings accounts, GIC’s) that are fully taxable at your top rate and have a negative real return to begin with.. well good luck with that.
@#26 When Will They Raise Rates? on 11.29.18 at 6:56 pm
#10 Frank The Tank on 11.29.18 at 6:01 pm
The over-sensitivity here is palpable.
I never said blue collar people were “redneck”.
Everyone here knows what I meant; truck nuts, confederate flag and a staunch intolerance for anyone not named Mike Smith.
Move on.
——————————-
Not that I care one way or another, but I would just point out that if you re-wrote your original statement, but substituted the word “redneck” with any other racial derogatory term applying to any race other than white, that comment would never be published here, you would be banned and labeled a racist.
It’s fascinating that racism is tolerable to leftists as long as it’s against whites.
And for the record, country folk are some of the nicest, down to earth people you’ll meet. I know because in one of previous businesses, I traveled all across Ontario, visited and dealt with clients in almost every small town spanning between Windsor and Ottawa and as far north Huntsville and beyond.
The people that were the worst to deal with were the city people. Go figure.
______________________________________
oh boy here we go with the but, but, but the leftists nonsense
nobody ever got the lay of the land from a visit.
go figure.
Here’s the view from my fancy portfolio manager buddy Ryan, always happy to show up and confuse us with a chart. “Technically, the S&P 500 is coming up to a key level around 2,740 to 2,780. This marks the confluence of the short-term downtrend, and the 50- and 200-day moving averages. We need to see a break about this range for us to move out of this current correction and resume the uptrend. I expect this to occur.”
——
If truly ‘expecting’ this to occur, one should have bought the dip. If not, it’s all hypothetical and “told you so” only after the fact. What most ‘say’ they’ll do, vs what they ‘actually’ doesn’t usually jive.
My guess is that it will continue it’s upward surge, long enough to ‘calm’ the majority that the 10-year bull market is going to 20 (or something). At 2800, or higher, I’m definitely going to short this thing again (but mostly the Cubes, the FAANGs, and Russel 2000).
People that freak with a puny 2% drop in a month, shouldn’d be making investment decisions! But to put at least some money aside in a GIC (as in 2-3 years living expenses), isn’t necessarily a bad thing.
Now, when she sees the market moving up 2, 3, 4,.. percent, what does she do? Take it out of the GIC and back in the market?
People like her are a reliable indicator of what the market is likely to do next. Please Garth, if/when she calls you to inform you that she’s going back in, let us know. I’ll be doubling down on the shorts!
TCC
DELETED
#2 Alessio on 11.29.18 at 5:29 pm
==============
3.6% for 5yr GIC will get a haircut when taxed, depending on the income bracket this could be close to 50%, therefore it will not be 200K, perhaps little over half of this amount. Technically, it is @1.8%.
“Marianne runs two car dealerships (not GM) and seems good at it. Ten years from retirement, she has business equity and an investment portfolio of just over two million.”
———————————
Something tells me Marianne, doesn’t really need anybody’s council and is going to make out, just fine.
@#1 The Flopster
Unwashed, immigrant, redneck Tasmanians vote?!?!?!?!
@#22 Ponzi Pilot
“Personally, I think it’s just to scare people into over-saving and investing.”
+++++
Perhaps but I’d rather have money at 95 to pay the “diaper changers” than be working at Wal Mart at 70 to pay the rent on a mouldy basement suite.
Say goodbye to another 3/4 billion of your money while you huddle and scrimp for carbon taxes and even basic school supplies for the kids’ classrooms. Look it mentions banks (record profits) and charities (which produce only salaries & tax receipts).
We dont’ call it Korporate Welfare or Graft here in Kanada. We’re different.
From Stockwatch:
“The Globe and Mail reports in its Thursday edition that reaction to the government’s fall economic statement focused on the tax incentives to make Canada better for business. …. Buried deep in his speech, Finance Minister Bill Morneau announced the Social Finance Fund, a $755-million investment to kickstart Canada’s social-finance market
….
Now some of the public purse will be invested in projects, funds and social enterprises with the expectation of advancing priorities on social or environmental causes. RBC, Desjardins, Heart & Stroke and Vancity are already experimenting in the field.”
https://www.remax.ca/ns/barton-real-estate/north-range-cross-road-wp_id224423615-lst
——————————————-
Little off topic, but not too often a new house comes along for this price. On about a $3,000 lot. Car needed for everything from that location of course. And a trust fund.
I’d opt for the 1/2 million condo in Toronto this time.
Being 10 years from a retirement that could last 30 years means a smart person stays invested. – Garth
I don’t really know what is or is not in the ETF’s you recommend. However as a generalization, I always wonder why people think that during a market downtrend Colgate will stop selling toothpaste or the bank will stop earning money. Makes no sense to sell, based on news, a website, or a down month in the market.
Make a good plan, stick to it. Trust in the plan. Doesn’t get easier than that.
Shawn Allen once or may be more than one said:
stock chart analysis = astrology
It’s hard to believe that a person intelligent enough to run two successful car dealerships can be so stupid
“nor the breakeven/small surplus in 2015.”
I think you really mean the non-existent surplus, and actually large deficit. If you go here:
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/markets/government-securities-auctions/goc-t-bills-and-bonds-outstanding/
Its pretty easy to see that debt increased considerably in the last year of Harper’s reign. Thus the claim of running a surplus or a ‘balanced budget’ was dishonest. As was the claims made by the Harper/the Tories of fiscal prudence when their reign of fiscal terror left Canada with in excess of $270B of additional new debt over the decade in power.
Like the Liberals or not for their social policy stuff, they actually run a very tight ship. Spending announcements look big, but they’re spread out over so many years that its really not a lot of money. And a lot of practices that were based on dogmatic considerations, such as outsourcing of certain government functions, and not cost criteria obviously are in far less favour historically with the Liberal governments. For how poorly the Canadian economy has performed, with no tailwind to the treasury from capturing capital gains tax as there’s been no housing nor stock market appreciation since Trudeau came to power, the deficits they’re running are actually quite minimal. Inflation-adjusted, they’re beneath what the Harper regime ran, that’s for sure. And that giant timebomb that Harper/Flaherty left at the CMHC with their reckless policy should properly be added to the tally of Tory debt.
This morning:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-29/powell-s-remarks-misunderstood-by-markets-deutsche-bank-warns?srnd=markets-vp
“Skeptics are warning U.S. stock investors they overdid it with their exuberant reaction to comments from Jerome Powell on Wednesday.
Traders read too much into the Federal Reserve chairman’s comments that suggested interest rates may not need to go much higher, according to reports from Deutsche Bank and RBC Capital Markets. Instead, they should focus on fundamental economic data that suggest the U.S. central bank will need to raise borrowing costs to keep wages and inflation in check.”
This afternoon:
“Fed Emphasizes Flexible Rate Path After Likely December Hike”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-29/fed-sees-rate-hike-soon-sets-stage-for-more-flexible-path?srnd=markets-vp
Then:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-30/bank-of-korea-raises-benchmark-rate-for-first-time-in-a-year?srnd=markets-vp
and
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-30/the-london-housing-market-is-worse-than-it-looks-here-s-why?srnd=markets-vp
and
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-29/mortgage-spreads-seen-widening-more-as-demand-dynamic-shifts?srnd=markets-vp
So will Trump strike a deal or raise a middle finger. I wonder what Vegas is betting? I am leaning towards a deal, but Trump’s ego is trying to Make Merica Great Again.
I think it comes down to time frame.
you mentioned she was close to retiring, and after so much success you’d hate to lose 20% a year or two before retirement.
I’ve got another 20 years, I’m mostly on autopilot
Ten years out, and a long retirement to finance. Besides a 20% loss is only realized if you are silly enough to cash in. As she did. – Garth
. By the way, I said, my accounts have exactly the same stuff as you –
I don’t know why, but seeing this in print relaxed me quite a bit. This little revelation makes me have even more faith in Garth’s advice. Thanks.
I used to look at my investment portfolio daily, then weekly, then when something big happens, now I really don’t watch it at all. It goes up, then down, them back up, over and over again, but the trend is more up than down. As Garth says, boring. Now I just do life.
Thought this was a joke. It’s real
Monoply for millennials. Hilarious. On sale at Walmart.
https://youtu.be/DA4nUDb3uo4
#38 Doug t on 11.29.18 at 7:52 pm
#23
Sold my house in Victoria just over a year ago made a bucket load
RATM
***********
Nice! Perfect Timing. Congrats.
I haven’t seen a lot of new ‘Sold’ signs lately (in my area) you?
#10 Frank The Tank on 11.29.18 at 6:01 pm
The over-sensitivity here is palpable.
I never said blue collar people were “redneck”.
Everyone here knows what I meant; truck nuts, confederate flag and a staunch intolerance for anyone not named Mike Smith.
Move on.
————
You (we) hung out some red meat and the dogs are snapping.
I know what you meant, and FWIW, those kind you refer to are not common out here in the ice pack, you will see many more along the lines of what Allister described.
That’s coming from someone who has several camo ball caps and drives a 7000 lb truck to work everyday (sans truck nutz).
I’ll tel ya what the problem is.
If you guys can’t listen to a white guy who happens to be an immigrant then what hope is there that you will ever listen to anyone else when they tell you to turn down the rhetoric.
Couldn’t be bothered going after people of colour today so a few guys thought that it was a good idea to profile other Caucasian people on location of residence,type of vehicle driven,style of dress.
I’ve got no problem when this is done jokingly.
I joke about myself and my heritage on here all the time.
If anyone was to ask me what is the most important thing you need to successfully migrate to Canada, I would reply,you need to have a sense of humour.
That is number one thing that will help if you are a middle class working citizen.
Another thing,why do people always assume immigrants are needy?
There are many reasons for immigration,in my case it was to keep a family unit together.
Don’t care about much else except trying as many experiences in life and trying to help out the people around me as much as possible.
I have enough money to keep me out of harms way,but by this blogs standards I am a blue collar bum.
Can’t be as generous with my money as I would like so I am generous with my time.
One of the projects you guys might be familiar with is I currently run a grassroots blog where I help out fellow Vancouverites will real estate information and ask for nothing in return except the occasional donation for cancer research…
M44BC
#54
I’d rather be dead thanks lol – some people have weird ideas about living long
RATM
“In the end we are all dead.” Author unknown.
Marianne has nothing to worry about – if she works another 10 years as she says then she probably will add a huge amount to what she already has – she makes the rest here look like punters – stay the course girl
RATM
Move to a warmer climate
Mini Ice age is coming.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/1052236/UK-weather-forecast-snow-uk-cold-how-long-freeze-met-office-long-range-forecast/amp
So Long, Marianne…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZI6EdnvH-8
#60 The Real Mark on 11.29.18 at 9:09 pm
“nor the breakeven/small surplus in 2015.”
I think you really mean the non-existent surplus, and actually large deficit. If you go here:
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/markets/government-securities-auctions/goc-t-bills-and-bonds-outstanding/
Its pretty easy to see that debt increased considerably in the last year of Harper’s reign. Thus the claim of running a surplus or a ‘balanced budget’ was dishonest. As was the claims made by the Harper/the Tories of fiscal prudence when their reign of fiscal terror left Canada with in excess of $270B of additional new debt over the decade in power.
Like the Liberals or not for their social policy stuff, they actually run a very tight ship. Spending announcements look big, but they’re spread out over so many years that its really not a lot of money. And a lot of practices that were based on dogmatic considerations, such as outsourcing of certain government functions, and not cost criteria obviously are in far less favour historically with the Liberal governments. For how poorly the Canadian economy has performed, with no tailwind to the treasury from capturing capital gains tax as there’s been no housing nor stock market appreciation since Trudeau came to power, the deficits they’re running are actually quite minimal. Inflation-adjusted, they’re beneath what the Harper regime ran, that’s for sure. And that giant timebomb that Harper/Flaherty left at the CMHC with their reckless policy should properly be added to the tally of Tory debt.
————
Please, for the love of all things furry and panting, stop with that stupid link. What is it, the 10th time you’ve posted that dumbass “bonds outstanding” page? Bonds outstanding has squat to do with an annual budget deficit. My cat knows this.
The PBO reported the deficit (not debt) as bouncing between small reds and blacks all of 2015 and finished up at a little over -900 million in October when Harper got booted.
Part of sounding credible is being intellectually honest. I can admit when air head Trudeau does something right. I can admit when Harper screwed up. Blithering on with this endless monolouge that every single dog commenting here knows is false will only fertilize the growth of 20 more Leo Trollstoy types that will be ripping you a new one 24/7.
Hopefully you are somehow getting paid to do this to yourself.
2 million portfolio. $40k loss. 2% loss unnerved her?
Doesn’t seem right. The loss would be bigger than that. For the owner of a cyclical business such as car dealership, I would imagine she’s more used to the vicissitudes of economy and business cycle.
If she has sizable equity and dealership, presumably worth a few million more, a 2% fall in her total net worth would be rounding error.
Why worry so much?
So the little one is going through his first ever sickness on planet earth. Whether or not he had an illness, wherever he was before here, we won’t know. He’ll forget that time before he remembers this time. It seems you can’t know both at once. One seems to cancel out the other somehow. Like dark matter.
So, it’s a cold. And we’re like, well we’ve all had them. Kind of sucks, feel not so good. Used to have a friend out East who swore that when she got a cold, she’d open up a mickey of Canadian Club and drink the lot. Wake up the next day sober as a salmon, and healthy as a mule, cold gone, no hangover. I always questioned her on that, because I had seen her post drinking days and how long it took her to get down the stairs in the morning (used to be room mates with her way back when, in a dive bomb of a house out in Guelph during some of my weirder post grad days).
But yeah, he has a cold. We went out and bought $100.00 worth of baby cold remedies from Walmart. Whatever we could find, really. It seems to help to some extent, but the administration of said remedies is a bit of a chore. The only thing he likes is the bubble gum flavoured benedryl. And he has not even ever chewed a piece of bubble gum.
Sick babies r’us.
It’s a cold, kid, time to be a little tougher. But I guess if you can’t breath when you’re on the boob, then all things start to fall apart for you.
#10 Frank the Tank
«and a staunch intolerance for anyone not named Mike Smith»
Hilarious!
@ #1 Flopster
“After it being confirmed that I am an unwanted dirty immigrant, and then add the fact that I consider, and have called myself, an old school blue collared bum on this very blog, now means that I am an apparent redneck as well.”
Wait til you get called a Coal Rollin’ Tree Cuttin’ Moose Huntin’ Beer for Breakfast Drinkin’ Anglo Speakin’ old s**t, and you’ll know that you’ve finally made it to top of the envy ladder!
Medical doctors now recognize the “climate hysteria” type as suffering from a condition similar to PTSD. Eight years and billions of dollars of Obama and UN screaming propaganda created a level of Armageddon-like thinking that not was only devastating the lives of the little sheep and the moronic flock who couldn’t cope with with intense level of bullshit, it actually became real and morphed into a medical condition now known as “climate hysteria”.
According to the medical community the deniers are in fact the believers.
https://nationalpost.com/opinion/randall-denley-with-pragmatic-new-climate-change-plan-ontario-offers-antidote-to-eco-hysteria
There has never been an iota of truth to the propaganda. It’s all been made up as a fund raising gimmick to spend on wealth distribution and other wastrel activity. But the sheep were forced into a black well of doom every day for years and now a huge number of people became mentally ill.
Climate change finance is the worst maniacal horror perpetrated on global citizens since the Second World War. But, no bullet holes to patch, just a new world of opportunity for psychotherapists. Goebbels couldn’t have done better when he turned Germans against Jews.
This just tells me we are all doomed if you are under 40.
2% drop and she panics? Markets bounce around that much in one day. G. Turner himself calls to be the voice of reason and she still sells?
How’s that going to work out for people that are moving to Robo Advisors for a perceived ‘savings’? Do you think the call centre will be the voice of reason? Or are Robo investors going to continuously sell low and buy high? …Creating an even bigger retirement crisis.
#62… I missed 10 years out… I mean, it was buried all the way into the second sentence
#66
Victoria has gone cold for sales and about time lol
#44 Smartersquirel….’So in short, my returns are on par with a balanced portfolio, but I feel there are certain benefits to creating my own portfolio of stocks’
Same boat as you. YTD my dividend income has increased 8.2%. 14 out of my 15 holdings have increased dividend payouts this year.
Increasing income every year….and no need to sell the underlying stock…..yummy.
These are all good companies providing intrinsic value. I don’t care about stock price fluctuations. I’m in for the long term. Its noise. Folks are fools to be spooked by a 2% price drop.
I assume Marianne also has an annual advisor fee of 1%, otherwise selling all costs a bundle more, at likely 1.5% of her portfolio. Then again, to buy back in. Stay put !
When discussing the rural/urban cultural divide, one thing is certain; if you ever find yourself lost in the woods, living thru an earthquake, or escaping a forest fire, your survival will probably depend on a bunch of rednecks. I know where I want to be when the big shaker hits the Wet Coast, and it ain’t Granville and Georgia.
I don’t get it. How could someone with enough business smarts not see the logic with holding investments and waiting out the correction?
What we’ve seen here is another example of the logic behind a diversified portfolio. If you get impatient during those inevitable market corrections, why not cash in some fixed income investments that dropped less in value and buy more equities while they are ON SALE?
“Bonds outstanding has squat to do with an annual budget deficit. My cat knows this.”
Bonds outstanding is like your credit card balance. T-Bills and T-Bonds are the borrowings of the Government of Canada. When debt increases, by definition, the government has spent more than it has taken in. That’s the very definition of a deficit. Whether its in personal finance, or honest government finance.
The PBO simply isn’t credible and has obviously been captured by partisan interests if they characterize the addition of around $20B of new debt in Harper’s last year in office as being a ‘balanced budget’. The government lost credibility for its claim that it was running a ‘balanced budget’ when there was no such thing. The Tories will continue to lag at the polls until such time that they own up to their legacy of an additional $270B of debt added. Literally the most significant nominal addition of debt and the chronic running of deficits of any sitting government and Prime Minister in the history of Canada.
Not trying to mock Canadians. I’m one of you with zero support. But man look what at the French did in France when the mighty midget spiked gas prices in the name saving the planet.
We are talking the soft French. This why I can’t stay in the only place on earth that has swiss chalet which devoured tonight. So good
But I can’t stay around and watch the nicest people in the world get bent over by two bit sales men, tossing you under the bus while you say thank you. Globalism and the UN are evil.. They want to take it all from you, pretend to give it to the meak, and pocket it all, these power hungry freeks
When I get a plane next week going to Trumps America to help make it great again..
This song will be in my head once I cross the border.
https://youtu.be/iMaJyUQfwv4
Until then while here in Canada.
RIP Canada as you know it. This is what will be left.
https://youtu.be/OO5y2O_hv3I
Frank….sometimes you win and sometimes you learn.
Paint with a broad brush you miss the detail is something you might ponder.
Or how about you don’t get to slag me, my neighbours, our way of life, where we live, over some perceived misconceptions you hold. Roll your prejudiced populism out on your old stock friends, not in my presence.
You profess bewilderment over my lesbian reference yet tell us that of course everyone knows what you meant by calling us rednecks. Well, everyone with half a brain knows what I meant as well. Except for you it seems.
And before you pull out some made up crap about how I must be a panty waist liberal I have PC membership cards from the 70s, 80s, don’t know what happened in the 90s because they are gone but not only was I a paid up member I was also a bag man…er, fundraiser that decade. and a couple from the 2000s on. Not many then as the whole sell out to the Reform thing drove me away …
I know a Frank Doolan. A Frank Bouree. A Frank Weins.
Doolan invented a sort of Geiger counter thing that scanned the Shield, hung from a helicopter. It showed where oil probably was.Wealthy doesn’t come close as a descriptor. He lived out of city, in a small town on the banks of the Red River, north of Winnipeg.
Bouree was the A&W master franchisee area holder for all of BC and most of Alberta. Sold out of that and semi-retired (became a consultant, lol) to a smaller community on Vancouver Island.
And Weins was around when Ted Byfield cut his chops in the Anglican bureaucracy, before he started up Alberta Report and Canada Report. Both were teachers of mine, both lived in small communities, both do not deserve to have their contributions to conservatism in Canada besmirched by the new view so-called conservative of today… Eh?
Are you understanding this or just getting angry? Because I am reminded of another story. It was Ted Byfield who, via his publisher, introduced me to Pierre Berton. I still get residuals from a deal Berton helped me out on. Last cheque was for $1.17…I kid you not. Cost them more to calculate and mail it to me than the amount. Apparently the book I contributed to is still sporadically selling in Asia somewhere.
Anyway, long story short…Berton and I end up on a circle route canoe/camping trip. We talked. I a rabid PC guy, he a well left of center guy. Never once did he denigrate me or anyone. Never once was he dismissive of my perhaps somewhat unformed political beliefs. Not once did he hold himself out as anything other than a companion on this five day canoe thing.
He sure could drink tho…
Anyway we all should strive to be a little more like Pierre Berton.
Live in the country, eat a lot of peaches.
Which reminds me…I have a great story about me and Burton Cummings of the Guess Who. Maybe another time, unless you strongly feel you have nothing to gain by conversing with a probable redneck.
If you know what I mean…and I think you probably do.
What a dunce of a person.
When you see ALL of the asset classes plummeting synchronously for no goddamn reason other than some chicanery related to Tweets and public sentiment, I can’t think of a more clear buy signal.
Loaded up on an REIT that fell 13% on no actual change in the underlying business (are we allowed to name tickers), a senior energy firm and some renewable energy crap that was also on sale.
Free money.
On the road back to Toronto from Arizona.
It was fun while it lasted.
Holed up at a Holiday Inn in a CRAPHOLE town just outside of Oklahoma City. It makes Toronto look good. Not as good as Phoenix, but good none the less.
I’m happy I got into the GTA real estate market back in 1985, so my out-of -pocket cost to live in this currently ridiculously overpriced and congested megametropolis is negligible.
If I had to get in at today’s prices? Forget it. Not. Worth. It.
People have to be outta their minds to be buying in Toronto at today’s prices.
It’s just a bad deal.
@SmarterSquirrel
“or a financial stock like TD or a REIT like CRT.UN I tend to hold for the long term unless something changes fundamentally”
What the heck is going on with CRT.UN? Not looking too stellar on the 1-year.
MacArthur to 93, 93 to 55, 55 to 91 toll lanes, you make a left on 15, Hesperia is first, Barstow second, Baker is 3rd.
The last waypoint after 4 hours is 15 and Flamingo road. Then your dogs get excited and make weird happy dog sounds, they know where they are and are happy as shit, all the attention they get.
Put that route on your bucket list. Hunter S lived it, so have I. Never saw the bats. Had dogs and a hot gambler on board.
My dogs have pissed in 5 star rooms In:
Atlantic City
Biloxi
Florida
Tunica
New Orleans
Laughlin
Vegas
Memphis
Nashville
Cleaveland
Lost Angles
San Deago.
And many more.
My dogs seen it all.. Wyett told me he’s writing a book about his epick road trips, says he’s going be honest and I might not like it.
I’m putting you and mom in the spot light.
Wyett, this 12 lbs beast is not afraid to show his teeth.
#14 Shawn Allen on 11.29.18 at 6:16 pm
Oil by Rail Economics
choo…choo…choo
As usual, your analysis is reasonably sound but might have some flaws. A few points, if I may. Oil shipped by pipeline is, subject to correction by those who know better, is about $6 or $7 per barrel. By rail, about $15 or $16 per barrel. And yes, unit trains beat manifest trains. Also, another benefit to rail arises from pipelines have a fixed end point that cannot be moved. Via rail, maybe heated to keep the sludge less viscous (maybe dilbit requiring the return of diluent), oil can be sent anywhere. Even to Natchez, Mississippi and onto a barge to any refiner on the Gulf (yet more moolah $).
But the railways want longer term contracts. Understandable. They even want, I expect, “take or pay” contracts from shippers, so if the railcar leaves the trans-shipment depot empty, the shipper pays the full rate. A dead loser, so the oilcos balk.
Only a government would think this a wise investment. The producers are wiser and would not do this on their own initiative. Amounts to a $430 million dollar subsidy for 120K bbl/day. Also, the Alberta royalties are among the lowest of any sentient developed nation so this is a sop to voters and the oilco bosses of the AB Gov’t.
Ultimately, it is not an economic solution, IMHO.
Nonetheless, your thoughts caught my eye.
M62AB Oilfield Trash WUL
#68 For those about to flop… on 11.29.18 at 9:32 pm
…Can’t be as generous with my money as I would like so I am generous with my time…
>Flop: The Greater Fool Knight. What say you, Lord Garth of The Greater Fool Kingdom?
Yeah, I stuck around. Barbarians at the gate, Garth!
http://www.bbc.com/travel/story/20181129-the-last-true-knight-on-malta
The last true knight on Malta
The storied Knights of Malta shaped the Maltese capital of Valletta into a ‘city for gentlemen’, but how much longer can chivalry survive in the modern age?
By Ross Kenneth Urken
30 November 2018
…After bidding farewell to the marquis, I headed for a sundowner at The Phoenicia Hotel’s Club Bar, where for some 30 years Pierre ‘Pitro’ Walton has been head bartender and served the likes of Queen Elizabeth II and Frank Sinatra. As I was trying to review my lessons in gallantry – humble pride, charity work, valour, humour – I wondered what Walton, a commoner like myself, thought of his country’s knightly legacy….
—
Smokey, what’s your b.p.?
Appreciate the positive outlook.
I can easily see how a balanced and diversified portfolio can be down 2-3% this year.
A sample of common ratios in past recommended amounts shows:
Canada – down 3%
Preferred – down 5%
High yield bonds – down 3%
Short term bonds – even
International EAFE – down 2.5%
Emerging markets – down 5%
Us index – 5% up
REITs -9% up
These include dividends.
And while much of these drops have occurred in the past 2 months, I don’t think that any of these indexes have recovered enough to offset a 2-3% portfolio drop as yet.
Unless these markets come roaring back, Marianne’s choice may not be a bad one for a year or so.
At the end of next year she will have another 2% growth and can still get back into balanced investments without too much pain, if things seem to stabilize.
The current volatility is what drives people nuts.
And yes,over the long term, balanced investments do provide around 6% return.
But the ridiculous ups and downs make people very nervous given past financial messes.
And the actions of the so-called financial experts running the world, really don’t give much comfort that any of them really have a clue what they made doing.
Problem is, that those making the decisions, (Trudeau, Trump,Morneau, Putin, Merkel, Eu) none of them will really suffer from massive financial blunders like those that took place in 2008.
Can we really have any trust in leaders that believe killing Canadas energy industry is a good idea, or that running huge deficits during supposedly old times, makes any sense at all?
They have so frigging much wealth that a haircut of 50% means nothing.
For the rest of the paeons, a 10, 20, 30% loss can be huge.
She created the loss. The point is that thinking like yours is the enemy of long-term financial security. – Garth
Let’s have a vote.
Who thinks they will live to 95.
DELETED
She owns 2 dealerships (not GM). Right off the bat that is the best choice. Probably Honda or Toyota? N.A. cars are junk and always will be. Thats why I have owned foreign. My 2010 Honda has had 16 oil changes,new set of brakes, tires and 1 battery.Oh yea ,set of wiper blades. Life choices
Sorry you don’t get to selectively ignore the ~$50 billion in debt that Harper paid down in 2006-8 nor the breakeven/small surplus in 2015. – Howard
The breakeven budget from 2015 was a sham.
The Conservatives had fired,layed off, treated like crap, thousands of pay roll and benefit employees and advisors. Then they booked the salary savings into the future.
The cons caused Phoenix
It was spear headed by Tony Clement, employee of the year 2018
I don’t know how anyone can vote Conservative in Canada.
China is being hammered internally. A late poll below 50 registers a shock shrinking in manufacturing. Consumer spending crashing. And now, a pig killing African virus is nearly wiping out all live pork and pork products.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-29/killer-pig-virus-nears-china-s-major-cities-as-spread-quickens
If there were any Chinese buyers holding property in Vancouver ( which were told there isn’t and warned not to mention it ), it is possible that the wave of buying ( that some fools thought they’d personally witnessed) might turn into a tsunami of selling?
Worth thinking about. Even those rich ” students and housewives) might have to sell one or two out of panic like Garths Car Lot Queen. If the corporate bond default rate is any reflection of state enterprise pain. I’m thinking off that ” This little piggy ” story. Maybe China is a straw house about to get blown down by the big bad wolf.
#89 Ustabe on 11.29.18 at 11:16 pm
Frank….sometimes you win and sometimes you learn.
Paint with a broad brush you miss the detail is something you might ponder.
Or how about you don’t get to slag me, my neighbours, our way of life, where we live, over some perceived misconceptions you hold. Roll your prejudiced populism out on your old stock friends, not in my presence.
You profess bewilderment over my lesbian reference yet tell us that of course everyone knows what you meant by calling us rednecks. Well, everyone with half a brain knows what I meant as well. Except for you it seems.
And before you pull out some made up crap about how I must be a panty waist liberal I have PC membership cards from the 70s, 80s, don’t know what happened in the 90s because they are gone but not only was I a paid up member I was also a bag man…er, fundraiser that decade. and a couple from the 2000s on. Not many then as the whole sell out to the Reform thing drove me away …
I know a Frank Doolan. A Frank Bouree. A Frank Weins.
Doolan invented a sort of Geiger counter thing that scanned the Shield, hung from a helicopter. It showed where oil probably was.Wealthy doesn’t come close as a descriptor. He lived out of city, in a small town on the banks of the Red River, north of Winnipeg.
Bouree was the A&W master franchisee area holder for all of BC and most of Alberta. Sold out of that and semi-retired (became a consultant, lol) to a smaller community on Vancouver Island.
And Weins was around when Ted Byfield cut his chops in the Anglican bureaucracy, before he started up Alberta Report and Canada Report. Both were teachers of mine, both lived in small communities, both do not deserve to have their contributions to conservatism in Canada besmirched by the new view so-called conservative of today… Eh?
Are you understanding this or just getting angry? Because I am reminded of another story. It was Ted Byfield who, via his publisher, introduced me to Pierre Berton. I still get residuals from a deal Berton helped me out on. Last cheque was for $1.17…I kid you not. Cost them more to calculate and mail it to me than the amount. Apparently the book I contributed to is still sporadically selling in Asia somewhere.
Anyway, long story short…Berton and I end up on a circle route canoe/camping trip. We talked. I a rabid PC guy, he a well left of center guy. Never once did he denigrate me or anyone. Never once was he dismissive of my perhaps somewhat unformed political beliefs. Not once did he hold himself out as anything other than a companion on this five day canoe thing.
He sure could drink tho…
Anyway we all should strive to be a little more like Pierre Berton.
Live in the country, eat a lot of peaches.
Which reminds me…I have a great story about me and Burton Cummings of the Guess Who. Maybe another time, unless you strongly feel you have nothing to gain by conversing with a probable redneck.
If you know what I mean…and I think you probably do.
———————————–
Letter “L”, Letter “O”, Letter “L”.
We will know soon enough whether Marianne made the right decision or not. Until then, today’s posters and critics are all just speculating.
I would also remind people that the meme that “ financial markets always go up over time” sounds oddly familiar.
How could the basic message of ‘stay invested, ignore the noise’ be so lost on so many? No wonder most people fail financially. They ignore history. – Garth
Dogs cannot eat avocado. You should let that guy know he’s poisoning his poor dog….
#83 Deplorable Dude YTD my dividend income has increased 8.2%.
Yeah the great thing is if you don’t spend all of the dividend income then you can reinvest the left over dividend income into buying more dividend growth stocks. And the dividends from each company get increased each year if you have selected regularly growing dividend stocks. Those two things allow for some fast growing passive income.
When I turned 40 I finally woke up and started focusing on creating a passive income with dividend stocks. And at 47 I was able to live the lifestyle I’m accustomed to on those dividends without any work income. It took years and years of saving and living below my means but it’s been worth it.
#12 Ace Goodheart on 11.29.18 at 6:09 pm
In other news, it appears to be extremely difficult for a six month old to own an equities portfolio. The poor little dude is stuck with GICs unless one of his parents wants to set up a trust fund.
Which sucks. Because they now tax the crap out of trust funds.
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No, “they” don’t. Cap gains can be taxed in the kids hands, income taxed in yours.
#106 SmarterSquirrel on 11.30.18 at 7:36 am
#83 Deplorable Dude YTD my dividend income has increased 8.2%.
Yeah the great thing is if you don’t spend all of the dividend income then you can reinvest the left over dividend income into buying more dividend growth stocks. And the dividends from each company get increased each year if you have selected regularly growing dividend stocks. Those two things allow for some fast growing passive income.
When I turned 40 I finally woke up and started focusing on creating a passive income with dividend stocks. And at 47 I was able to live the lifestyle I’m accustomed to on those dividends without any work income. It took years and years of saving and living below my means but it’s been worth it.
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Nice!
… Now work on a strategy to get it the eff out of this country before T2 grabs that shit
@#98 Ponzi Pilates
“Who thinks they will live to 95.”
++++
Longevity is in my gene’s. 95 is a very distinct possibility. I’m hoping to ring the bell at 105. I’ll email you in 50 years and let you know how that works out
But you’re missing the point.
People that “Live” have less stress ( ie enough money, savings, time to relax and enjoy a bit of retirement).
As opposed to people that “survive”, no money, stressed, scrabbling for every grocery store coupon…… If thats how you want to spend your “retirement”….fill your boots.
Everyone knows their birthday not their death day.
Enjoy working at WalMart at 70 ……
I hear they give employees discounts on Depends and denture glue.
#92 Unhinged Trader What the heck is going on with CRT.UN?
I want to be respectful of Garth’s blog. It’s his space. I don’t think he wants this comment section to devolve into discussing the merits of one particular stock. I try to make my comments on point with the topic Garth is discussing in his blog. And I don’t think I should comment four times in his comment section in one day. (Sorry Garth, I’m making my fourth comment to say I’m not going to comment.)
So Unhinged Trader, I didn’t want to ignore your question, because trust me, I like the question. If you would like to discuss CRT.UN, I’m happy to, but I don’t think we should in Garth’s space. If you click on my name you should be able to find a way to send me an email and we can discuss that way.
#104 Mr Pragmatic on 11.30.18 at 7:11 am
We will know soon enough whether Marianne made the right decision or not. Until then, today’s posters and critics are all just speculating.
I would also remind people that the meme that “ financial markets always go up over time” sounds oddly familiar.
How could the basic message of ‘stay invested, ignore the noise’ be so lost on so many? No wonder most people fail financially. They ignore history. – Garth
—————
As a reminder see staying invested in 1929 would have required staying invested until the mid 1950’s in order to recover losses.
The 2008/9 drop and subsequent quick recovery was done with the backdrop of available monetary policy which will be next to impossible to implement this time should things spiral out of control.
Not saying it will , I stay invested however the meme that markets always rise belies the fact that time is irrelevant.
Marianne May have decided that time is relevant to her .
Go ahead and be afraid. Let us know how that works out. – Garth
@#102 David Driven
“Even those rich ” students and housewives) might have to sell one or two out of panic like Garths Car Lot Queen.”
++++
The houses never go first.
Its the toys.
Like the High School student last week that almost sideswiped me in his Maserati SUV ( First Maserati SUV I have ever seen) with the “N” sticker on the plate.
The toys get dumped first…then the houses.
But I doubt it.
With the corruption crackdown in China we will probably see an upsurge in money fleeing to “safer” countries with lawyers that can tie things up for years until the money laundering case gets ‘stayed”.
Which begs the question.
“If a corrupt govt official in China is executed …does his Canadian numbered company still have to pay taxes?”
How could the basic message of ‘stay invested, ignore the noise’ be so lost on so many? No wonder most people fail financially. They ignore history. – Garth
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I know many people who ignore that message for one simple reason; they think they can outsmart.
Just spoke to a co-worker who is convinced the markets will crash like no other time in history. He is taking money out to outsmart the suckers and he will re-enter when he has personally assessed that it is safe to do so.
I don’t know how anyone can vote Conservative in Canada.
– When the only alternative is to vote Liberal, it’s not only easy, it’s intuitive.
Confucius say, “Politician are like diaper – must change often, and for same reason.”
A real redneck would not try to understand the science behind seven billion people affecting a limited envelope.
The same redneck would try to offset buying $1000 of fuel a month by using 7000lb truck to bring home free pallets to burn them, hoping the gas produced would power this perpetual motion scheme. The energy equivalent of 1500lbs of gasoline = how many lbs of recovered, bottled flammable wood gas again? From how many lbs of wood brought home each day to achieve the goal?
And advocate creating a time capsule pimple by shunning tipping fees and burying trash on the back 40.
All seven billion of us?
And how did her investments get to 2 mill??? What was she invested in? Something fishy here. Business minded, well off. Something just dont sound right.
I was looking at my latest flyer for my favorite grocery chain, and saw – being ripped off. Looked for the first time at Food Basics for example, and was amazed by it all, because it looked like a half price sale for a large list of items. I saved a lot of money which can be used elsewhere.
#10 Frank, you didn’t disparage blue collar people, you disparaged small town and rural people. You stated that your main fear of moving out of your urban utopia to a smaller town was “red necks”. You seem surprised that you don’t get to toss out passive-aggressive insults without getting some blowback. Worse, you blame the oversensitivity of others, rather than take some responsibility for your own words. You don’t always get to hide behind your own fashionable (and narrow) definition of “tolerance”. Grow up.
The lesson here? Turn off the financial entertainment news. Turn off BNN, CNN, MSNBC, Cramer, FOX, Zero Hedge, Motley Fool, etc. Don’t listen to the likes of Goldman Sachs who are notorious for making forecasts and calls that are the exact opposite of what happens. Take responsibility for your wins and losses. People without trading plans act on emotion, end up losing and blame it on someone else or the market.
Anyone else who likes to get confused by charts may like the video I’ve linked to. When you step back and see the bigger picture, things are still looking positive and may be the start of a longer move up. Of course any outcome is possible, but this isn’t the end of the world as people always seem to think it is. It’s just time for me to put some of that cash to work and make some money.
All of the videos by Ciovacco Capital are top notch.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pcpdsfXoX_U&t=1478s
Trudeau announces his Presidency.
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=2041654232555851&id=944819212239364
The “Artiste Manque’ aka Justin Trudeau has left behind the notion that a mere title of Prime Minister is enough to elevate him on the laughing world stage. He’s on to much grander things, Monsieur le President Justine.
Who’s getting sued: November 27, 2018
These corporate claims were filed with the BC Supreme Court registry in Vancouver. Information is derived from notices of civil claim. Civil claims have not been tested or proven in court.
November 27, 2018
https://biv.com/article/2018/11/whos-getting-sued-november-27-2018
Marianne was just born at the wrong time. Everything was basically honest in the stock market until around 1994. Now everything is rigged or a ponzi where fundamentals mean absolutely nothing. It’s very common for the bankers to take the flip-side of every trade and then squeeze out all the longs or opposite positions with their vast sums of money. The trick at least so far has been to get into every niche ponzi and out of it before each niche ponzi collapses. Put another way go with what the crooks are going with buying things out of favour doesn’t work anymore. The Templeton strategy is a free trip to personal bankruptcy.
#119 Alistair McLaughlin on 11.30.18 at 10:33 am
#10 Frank, you didn’t disparage blue collar people, you disparaged small town and rural people. You stated that your main fear of moving out of your urban utopia to a smaller town was “red necks”. You seem surprised that you don’t get to toss out passive-aggressive insults without getting some blowback. Worse, you blame the oversensitivity of others, rather than take some responsibility for your own words. You don’t always get to hide behind your own fashionable (and narrow) definition of “tolerance”. Grow up.
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1. I didn’t say all small towns. I have clearly stated that multiple times.
2. I don’t live in an urban utopia (also stated multiple times), I am on the very outside fringes of one and rural is right next door.
3. What is it to you? I don’t like highly intolerant, truck nutz hanging, monster truck driving, good ol’ boys. Do I have to like everybody? In any interaction I would not treat them any different than anyone else. By the way, some of these people do live near me – this is not a blind assumption.
You could just as easily say you don’t like living next to Harry Rosen wearing city snobs and that is your prerogative. No one should have a meltdown over it.
I stand by my over-sensitive claim.
She created the loss. The point is that thinking like yours is the enemy of long-term financial security. – Garth
————————————————–
Not really my thinking.
I am still invested, as my financial situation is not hers.
Actually picked up some oversold preferred shares as I did in 2016 when they were massively oversold for no apparent reason.
But I do understand her concerns.
One side of me agrees fully with you and your investment and financial advice and I think you do a great service to those who read your blog and consider your advice.
The other side of me thinks that the people running the finances of the world, do not really have a frigging clue as to what they are doing.
So while I respect your opinion and thoughts on investing, my faith in others who actually control the worlds finances and economies, is far, far lower.
Marianne’s risk tolerance obviously does not work well with the current level of volatility.
Rather than being invested in instruments that tend to react to the volatility of the world with wild swings up and wild swings down, for her a more conservative investing model is not so bad.
Certainly not GIC’s at 1.9% , which is an overreaction too far.
The balanced and diversified portfolio truly makes sense for those with a longer investing horizon so the portfolio can weather the volatility, (or the stupidity of 2008 events) or who really need 6% long term, or who are able to ignore the swings.
Obtaining a lower return longer term – say 4%, with less volatility, less risk, and lower stress is still a reasonable option.
2% GIC’s, is a bad long term idea.
But there is a middle ground between 2% at no volatility, and 6%, at today’s volatility.
#119 Alistair McLaughlin – I could show Frank a small town of a few thousand in Ontario just off the 401. The town folks are all driving around in Ford Lincolns; mansions with 3 car garages all over; and the old farm houses have been replaced with Estate like homes. Yep, those rednecks are living well. All one sees for miles around are corn fields, and this little town has an RBC facility just like the big city, but all the basics are there for goods and services.
Jerry was killing them on open mic last night – what a card! Buzz was a no show – turns out he forgot about his skins game at Punta Espada.
Ok, but here is another equally plausible scenario. Trump makes a deal with China and we have a year end rally. Things bump along near the top again for a few months, but as 2019 dawns the market realizes higher interest rates are here to stay and more are coming, despite a slow down in frequency. The markets also realize that no more tax breaks are coming, and China is not where it was a decade ago. Things don’t crash, but over the next few years they churn lower. Slowly.
And we give back some of this bull run that has mainly been based on cheap credit. Nothing extreme. And over the next decade we go nowhere, or lower. Or much lower. Maybe we are Japan. Marianne doesn’t care. She has her nearly 2 million in something safe (covering inflation) and is enjoying her early retirement.
Ten years is not as long as you think. But maybe she doesn’t have much time after that. Or maybe her spouse doesn’t. No one knows.
I guess my point is that I can see her willingness to take a sure thing vs. taking a bet that one of the longest bull runs in history that has existed during a time when interest rates were suppressed in a way they have never been before, is going to resist the downward pressures that come with raising rates.
This one isn’t so clear cut to me.
So, simple. Don’t invest. Just try to keep your fear, uncertainty and lack of confidence from infecting too many others. Most people need more wealth in their lives, and will not get it through a savings account. – Garth
Or the markets could have slid further down wiping out 100 large on paper… anyone who says they know what the market will do short or long term with any degree of certainty is full of it… the markets are not driven by basic economic fundamentals but by a system designed to ruin the small investor and so how do you predict that…
Obviously you do not invest and should not be giving advice. – Garth
Expenditure Estimates for the Ministry of Community and Social Services (2018-19)
The 2018-2019 Expenditure Estimates set out details of the operating and capital spending requirements of the Ministry of Community and Social Services for the fiscal year commencing April 1, 2018.
https://www.ontario.ca/page/expenditure-estimates-ministry-community-and-social-services-2018-19
@Flopper;
(full respect as always for you – I’m having fun with those who ridicule others on this list)
I forgot about Truck Nut Hangin’ – thanks to Frank for this one! You do BC, I’ll cover Ontario, and we’ll let WUL handle the land between, and Billy Bob for the skies above (Ozone suckin’ ??).
I know, it’s tough, but we gotta keep the red-neckin stereotype on the go for the Torontonians, ok? Gives them something to feel superior about. (almost typed inferior there, slip of the fingers…)
Mind you, the politicians have some categories sewn up;
Tony Clement owns: Pants’ fallin’;
Trudeau’s got: aah aah hesitatin’;
Doug Ford’s got (unfortunately): Frog Batin’;
and Garth Turner’s got: Tugboat Smokin’
so we just have to concede defeat at the hands of our superiors sometimes. Keep them Truck Nuts flailin’, 10-4 good buddy – Deckie.
what about :
for language literate here or english
https://www.publiceye.ch/de/
“The Federal Council is due to release its latest assessment of the state of the Swiss commodities sector in the coming days, five years on from its “Background Report: Commodities.” Despite the countless scandals that have hit Swiss commodity trading companies, the government has failed to take effective measures to mitigate corruption and other risks. Public Eye is issuing an advance “shadow report” analysing the government’s “sins of omission” and outlining feasible ways in which Switzerland can and must fulfil its responsibility to help combat the resource curse.
In 2013, the Swiss Federal Council recognised that “as the industry […] increases in size it brings with it additional challenges that must be taken seriously”, especially in relation to respect for human rights, the environment of commodities exporting countries and combatting corruption. The report concluded that these challenges posed “reputational risks” to Switzerland. Nevertheless, the Swiss government ignored all recommendations to regulate the commodities trading sector in a bid to maintain the attractiveness of Switzerland as a business location. Since 2015, it has only recommended the adoption of eight parliamentary initiatives, opting instead to rely on the sector to “conduct itself responsibly, and with integrity.”
There is a particularly urgent need to act in terms of combatting corruption. A 2015 report by Switzerland’s interdepartmental coordinating group on combating money laundering noted that the activities of commodities trading companies make them particularly vulnerable to the risk of corruption abroad. Indeed, from dodgy deals with oligarchs from Congo to Kazakhstan, to the revelations of the Paradis Papers or the huge corruption scandal that enveloped the Brazilian oil company Petrobras: there have been repeated signs of the risks associated with the practices of Swiss commodity traders. These companies engage with dubious door-openers or enter into partnerships with politically exposed persons to gain access to lucrative markets. The lack of action from the Swiss authorities has not gone unnoticed: in its latest assessment of the country’s anti-corruption provisions, published in March 2018, the OECD recommended that the country introduce “suitable and binding regulations.”
https://www.publiceye.ch/en/media/press-release/fatal_inaction_swiss_government_has_shied_away_from_regulating_the_commodities_sector_since_2013/
T2 is coming out with some real corkers down in Argentina….
“…because women entrepreneurs tend to make better choices than others.”
“Others”? Damn…..totally not sexist in any way……
Also…..there are “social” impacts of bringing male construction workers to rural areas…..
Whats he implying……all males are sexual predators?
It would be nice if just once he could not inject Marxist identity politics into evertything….
Oh and in other news….some unelected EU beaurcrat literally said this yesterday about the UN global migration pact that many countries are refusing to sign…
“The criticism of migration will be a criminal offense.”
Welcome to 1984…….we’re nearly there….
From personal experience the return on my ‘balanced portfolio’ has not been what you talk about. At this point in the market I would be happy to get my initial investment out and I started investing in 2015. Have ETF’s, emerging markets, bonds, preffered’s, equities, renewables.
What I learned is investing in my business has had the biggest returns, investing in tangible assets which are under my control beats the market by a long shot (throwing a rock vs. rocket launcher) type of long shot.
If you’ve made nothing in three years you did it wrong. The cumulative return for a correct 60/40 is about 18% over that time. – Garth
Details are scarce… Sounds as if Marianne recently inherited the dealerships/savings or just went through a divorce (most likely inherited)
Someone that freaks out over 2% correction is not fitted to run a dealership business.
She was probably given advice to get a financial planner to manage her recently acquired wealth and she is freaking out at the thought of loosing a penny… Dumping Garth and his services along the way.
My 2 cents
I was not the dumpee. – Garth
132 jess on 11.30.18 at 12:45 pm
what about :
for language literate here or english
https://www.publiceye.ch/de/
“The Federal Council is due to release its latest assessment of the state of the Swiss commodities sector in the coming days, five years on from its “Background Report: Commodities.” Despite the countless scandals that have hit Swiss commodity trading companies, the government has failed to take effective measures to mitigate corruption and other risks. Public Eye is issuing an advance “shadow report” analysing the government’s “sins of omission” and outlining feasible ways in which Switzerland can and must fulfil its responsibility to help combat the resource curse…
_ _ _
Maybe we should let the Swiss investigate money laundering in Canada. They likely wouldn’t bungle the job the way the RCMP and Feds did with the charges recently stayed on their biggest money laundering case. The world’s criminals laugh at Canada lax rules and pathetic enforcement:
https://vancouversun.com/business/local-business/attorney-general-incredibly-disappointed-by-charges-stayed-in-b-c-s-largest-money-laundering-case
#116 Wrk.dover on 11.30.18 at 9:47 am
A real redneck would not try to understand the science behind seven billion people affecting a limited envelope.
The same redneck would try to offset buying $1000 of fuel a month by using 7000lb truck to bring home free pallets to burn them, hoping the gas produced would power this perpetual motion scheme. The energy equivalent of 1500lbs of gasoline = how many lbs of recovered, bottled flammable wood gas again? From how many lbs of wood brought home each day to achieve the goal?
And advocate creating a time capsule pimple by shunning tipping fees and burying trash on the back 40.
All seven billion of us?
_______
Riiiight.
Just a couple problems with your post:
First – You wanted to make an assertion, but you were short on the facts needed to make it. So you then reached for your @ss to fill in the blanks. I’m not doing ANY of that stuff you claim I am doing – not a single one.
Second – you obviously do not know your @rse from a hole in the ground when it comes to gasification. That’s understandable however, as it is a huge topic that 99.9% of folks could give a rip about. However, you probably should not try to make a point via a subject you know sweet **** all about (IMHO.)
Lucky for you, I am here to serve! A gasified truck like mine will typically get 2-3 km per lb of fuel such as I would employ (densified and torrefied wood).
One cubic foot of said wood fuel weighs 40 lbs. I expect to go about 100 km minimum on that cf of wood fuel – 2.5 km per lb.
One cubic foot of gasoline weighs 45 lbs. I can go 144 km on that cf of gasoline – 3.2 km per lb.
I’ve never done the math, but apparently if you work out miles per BTU – you actually go further on wood than you do on gasoline.
You seem very concerned about the environment, so you’ll be happy to learn that wood burning engines are carbon neutral, and if you bury (sequester) the spent char and ash (to your veggie garden), then they are carbon NEGATIVE. No sequestered carbon was dug up and re -introduced into the environment when fueling with wood.
You can think about that the next time you take your southern 3/4 ton 4bbl gas sucking full sized Van out for a drive.
Frank, then we have something in common. I don’t like “rollin’ coal” drivin’ knuckle-draggers either. Be more specific as to your target next time. I’ll try to do the same.
#89 Smoking Man on 11.29.18 at 11:08 pm
Not trying to mock Canadians. I’m one of you with zero support. But man look what at the French did in France when the mighty midget spiked gas prices in the name saving the planet.
We are talking the soft French. This why I can’t stay in the only place on earth that has swiss chalet which devoured tonight. So good
But I can’t stay around and watch the nicest people in the world get bent over by two bit sales men, tossing you under the bus while you say thank you. Globalism and the UN are evil.. They want to take it all from you, pretend to give it to the meak, and pocket it all, these power hungry freeks
When I get a plane next week going to Trumps America to help make it great again..
This song will be in my head once I cross the border.
https://youtu.be/iMaJyUQfwv4
Until then while here in Canada.
RIP Canada as you know it. This is what will be left.
https://youtu.be/OO5y2O_hv3I
_________________________________________
Actually you old fart you do knock Canadians every time you put your fingers to the keypad on this blog. What the hell do you have alzheimer’s? I would put my money on a bet that you are here to exercise your OHIP contributions and get fixed as much as possible before you trance back to SoCal. Health care is a little pricey there old man. If you truly have confidence in your belief that you can contribute to America then good for you old man because they truly need help! I have never in my life seen so much racial bias and hatred come out since your glorious orange leader was fallaciously elected by narrow minded right and the uncouth uneducated lower class who were hoodwinked into thinking that Trump would deliver them from their misery. He has made America great again but only for the 1%. They are reaping the benefits while the huddled masses are unpretentiously in for a colossal letdown after putting their support behind the man behind the curtain.
BTW You appear to have fantasy dreams about scantily clad young girl’s old man. Is that why you picked you video? What does the “hag” have to say about your taste in music videos?
Please leave Canada now, we’ll help you pack!
Why the Alberta Government will buy rail cars
95 WUL on 11.30.18 at 12:05 am responded to me:
#14 Shawn Allen on 11.29.18 at 6:16 pm
Oil by Rail Economics
As usual, your analysis is reasonably sound but might have some flaws. A few points, if I may.
…But the railways want longer term contracts. Understandable. They even want, I expect, “take or pay” contracts from shippers, so if the railcar leaves the trans-shipment depot empty, the shipper pays the full rate. A dead loser, so the oilcos balk.
Only a government would think this a wise investment. The producers are wiser and would not do this on their own initiative.
*****************************************
Exactly my point. It was not economic for the private sector. But it might be for the government.
In the private sector one or two shippers doing this would bear all the costs which might be too high. But if it caused Alberta oil prices to rise as the glut was reduced that benefit would flow partly to all other producers (their competitors), and would create higher royalties to Alberta and higher income taxes to Alberta and the Federal government and beyond that would boost the Alberta economy with spin-off benefits.
ONLY the government is in a position to benefit from and take into account those benefits in its return calculation.
Even if the oil producers as a group could do it economically, there is little or no ability to get together as a group. They are competitors. There is no “we” in private company economics.
The point is sometimes there is indeed a role for government and this might be one.
I would far rather if CN or CP found it economic to do maximum oil by rail but apparently they don’t. If there is a huge benefit for the province overall in oil by rail and the private sector won’t do it because the economics are not there, then there is a role for government.
Nothing better than a wood burning fireplace that uses dried out wood from the stacked pile. This produces a lot of CO2 that feeds the trees, crops, and all plant life to breath in. A process known called photosynthesis then produces oxygen from the plant life to keep us humans healthy by an exchange process. Carbon Tax is nothing more than a fraud.
Shout out to Paolo for the dog pic and sentimental story. Sorry to hear about your wife, but at least you’ve got a great pup.
#133
“…because women entrepreneurs tend to make better choices than others.”
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Others?? Dogs? children? men? plants?……….
Fair enough Garth. I am fully invested with a portfolio just under a million. But my family has a longer time frame, and we don’t have the level of wealth mentioned. If I was afraid, I wouldn’t be investing, and I wouldn’t be advising my younger peers to get invested (which I am). My point was just that in this particular case (10 years or less and with enough wealth to carry her through) it might be a reasonable plan depending on one’s risk tolerance. It’s not always an either or proposition. Shades of grey exist .. or so my wife tells me ;)
You do not stop having investments on the day you retire. The point is to generate life-long income. Going to cash in your 50s is nuts, unless you have a fortune. – Garth
Government Shipping Oil by Rail
And normally I find spin-off effect calculations (to justify industry subsidies) to be extremely suspect. Jobs “created” at one company often just displace jobs at a competitor. Subsidizing jobs is just a bad idea.
In the case of oil though it is a commodity that is exported and where the price has been hammered way below the U.S. price by a lack of pipelines. It is a fairly unique situation. It looks like a rare case where a government solution is needed.
#139 James – thank you for that well crafted diatribe re ‘Smoking man’. Nicely done!
Sail in Cape Breton
I must plug my homeland. Sail boats, even more so than houses, are cheap in Cape Breton. Brador Lakes make for some of the finest sailing. There are races regularly out of Baddeck yacht club. They need new blood as the population is aging rapidly, not to mention the other alternative to getting older that comes into play.