Is it over? Well, almost?
That’s what Mr. Market is asking about that long string of future rate hikes everybody expected a month or two ago. The return on US ten-year bonds has dropped like Tony Clement’s shorts and now sits closer to 3%. The yield on Government of Canada five-year bonds (which influences fixed-rate mortgages) has retreated decidedly from the 2.5% neighbourhood.
On Wednesday US stocks surged 600 points (and 200 on Bay Street) after dovish Fed comments. Speculators on futures markets have been betting four more hikes next year are turning into just two. And Donald Trump’s amped up the vitriol when it comes to bank boss Jay Powell. “I am,” he said this week, “not even a little bit happy with him. They’re making a mistake because I have a gut and my gut tells me more sometimes than anybody else’s brain can ever tell me.” Hours later Powell threw in the towel. We’re almost there, he said.
Higher rates would prick Trump’s bubble at the worst moment. His big tax cuts and fiscal stimulus wallop of last year are wearing off. The one-man global trade war has ended up making investors nervous and goosing input costs for big US corps like General Motors (look what just happened). The decade-long economic expansion grows longer in the tooth. And nine Fed hikes are taking a toll (house prices in bellweather places like Seattle and Dallas are fading). Trump wants greatness at all costs – record stocks, inflating wages, full employment.
Bond yields slip. Mortgage pressure off?
Meanwhile in Canada, yuck. The oil patch is a mess thanks to crappy crude prices, clogged pipes and political constipation. The GM announcement on Monday was taken as a sign the new USMCA may have Trumped us. And the feds just abandoned even trying to balance the books, assuring deficits of close to $20 billion a year will be the Trudeau legacy. Last week Morneau brought in billions worth of corporate tax breaks – something that would be unneeded if the economy needed higher rates to chill.
But, back to bonds. They tell us a lot.
When stock markets were roiling last month, rivers of money flowed into the safe stuff. Now a bunch is flowing back, since equity values are more attractive, sentiment has improved and corporate profits continue to please (RBC just hit it out of the park). If Trump and Xi come to an agreement this weekend at the G20 summit – any deal, even a tepid one – markets could roar into a year-end romp.
What does it mean?
If rates moderate and the trade tantrum fades anyone who bailed out of their portfolio in panic last month will regret it. Unloved equities and oversold preferreds are assets to be bought, not punted. The best strategy of all is to get a balanced and diversified portfolio, then fuggedaboutit.
As for real estate, well, the big banks are having a year from hell in terms of new mortgage originations. The golden goose croaked was sautéed by the new stress test which wiped away about 20% of the market. So while higher interest rates help bank spreads, more costly mortgages erode one of their most important long-term sources of revenue. Rest assured if bond yields continue to back off, a home loan rate cut is coming.
Second, if we’re looking at one, two or maybe three more central bank increases before this cycle ends (instead of five or six), it makes sense to borrow with a variable rate. This now feels less like gambling, and means borrowers can enjoy lower payments for a long time. Those VRMs are still out there for about 2.5%.
In short, interest rate risk is falling. But before you pull your party pants on, be aware market risk is rising. House sales are slowing, prices are under pressure, credit is restricted and family finances are tight. If GM means anything, that’s not cool. And our oil situation won’t turn around fast, which is a threat to the whole economy – just like the feds adding $100 billion to the national debt, guaranteeing (even) higher taxes. At the same time, a quarter of all mortgages come up for renewal in the next few months, and most borrowers will see their payments rise.
So, curb your enthusiasm.
Finally, this pathetic blog yaks about Vancouver and Toronto too much, as you know. This is not all of Canada, as yesterday’s post tried to make clear.
“Just thought I’d send you a note on house prices in our little city,” writes Dan from Saskatoon. “These are CREA stats, I’m surprised they still publish them with their push for the lipsticked pig of HPI. I saw a lot of articles recently about how Canada has achieved a soft landing (they even called it “Magical”) which seems premature. Tell someone who lost $50,000 in two years (15% so far), that it was soft and even magical!”
Things are not so 'magical' here
122 comments ↓
Seems like the path to rate neutrality is now on hold according to the US Feds. Seems that Trump did not like all those rate increase despite criticizing Yellen for keeping rates low. But the markets love it – both real estate and the stock market.
Oh well, bears will have to await the next calamity to befall the real estate market as nothing has touched the hottest markets.
Funny how expectations have been walked back for those patient bears that missed the biggest chance at wealth accumulation. For years, it was watch out for the crushing impact of rising rates as they reach the ‘historical norms’ of 5-6%; then, when it was clear those levels were a pipe dream, it was ‘rates will rise substantially to 3-4%;’ and now it looks like rates will continue to stay low.
All the while, real estate went through the stratosphere because of the supposedly biggest determinant – low interest rates. Looks like the era of cheap rates will continue after a little market tease. Looks like minor price gains or a flat market will be the norm going forward as the ‘fear’ and ‘financial stress’ of these few piddley 0.25 rate increases have failed to fell the market. Without very significant rate increase, there is no driver for a market correction in the hottest markets like the GTA and Metro Vancouver.
All those bears on the sidelines waiting for rates to shake up the market will continue to be waiting – and wrong for many more years to come.
The Economic Calamity Underway
http://www.investmentwatchblog.com/the-economic-calamity-underway/
Cookies for Satan?
Sounds good for my mortgage renewal in 3 years.
“Higher rates would prick Trump’s bubble at the worst moment. His big tax cuts and fiscal stimulus wallop of last year are wearing off. ”
=====================================
Indeed. November 2020 is less than 2 years away. Soon, he will be hitting the campaign trail. He will do anything to avoid a recession.
@ CC
“All those bears on the sidelines waiting for rates to shake up the market will continue to be waiting”
*******
You obviously don’t know what is going on in the market right now
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Good…wait to resume until I renew my mortgage.
No, not everyone thought rates would continue to go up.
The system can’t handle it. The next rate moves will be in the opposite direction, and QE within the next 2 years.
Cookies for Satan.
Best Freudian Slip.
@#6 Les, Course Correction is a real estate troll. He’d be the last one to understand what’s going on. If rate increases are on hold, it’s because the central bankers see economic weakness ahead. If long term bond yields are off, it’s because the bond market sees the same thing. If the banks start cutting mortgage rates to match the declining 5 year bond yields, it’s because they’re trying to compete within an increasingly small pool of mortgage originations. A bearish economy is not bullish for housing. He will get his course correction.
RE: “You will be waiting a long time. Look at RBC today. The slide in pref values says zero about the market’s opinion of banks. It’s simply a risk-off moment which has put preferreds on sale. Ignore it. – Garth”
True.
But I just made out like a bandit with my purchases of preferred shares this past few weeks, if today’s suddenly dovish central bank comments, and the Trumpster talking like Rickey from “Trailer Park Boys” has any effects on the markets.
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Meh nobody outside this blog believed rates would rise anyways. Our central bank and the fed lost any credibility after the decade of zero rates.
They exposed themselves as shortsighted, politicized and hyper cautious. Badically always bluffing. Basically incompetent
As I’ve been saying Toronto re to the moon.
MF
Rates did rise, and have not stopped yet. – Garth
So… is it finally time to buy? I was gonna buy in 2010, and put that project on the back burner after reading Garth. Now prices have increased about 40% where I live — will they go down 50% before this is finished?
Buy when you can afford it and need real estate. I’ve said that time and again. – Garth
So much for that synchronized global growth narrative. We are going into the next recession with rates below 3% that sounds healthy.
RBC has record profits in the Billions, executives to get bonuses and watch for upcoming employee layoffs.
Buy some shares and be happy. – Garth
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Calamitous Calgary:
Synthetic Crude, Edmonton Mixed Sweet and Western Canada Select oil prices are less than 1/2 of the price they were one year ago today and less than 1/2 the year to date average.
While I have not been to or through Saskatoon in quite a while, I always felt it was a nice little city. Not too far from Prince Albert National Park and Waskesiu. The stomping grounds of Grey Owl. Good canoeing.
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Rate up good. Rate hold good. Rate down good.
The future is unknown – as it has always been.
Great gift for mankind.
Plan on at least 10 years of housing market stagnation, even with 300,000/yr+ in immigration, unless a bunch of wealthy ones start flooding in. The personal debt unwind takes that long, or longer, look at the US since 2008.
The kind of economic growth it takes to reverse a debt fueled housing party takes time, and with tax burdens going nowhere but up in every part of the country, there will also need to be a change in voter sentiment towards wealth creators before they take big risks in Canada.
Also, residential real estate is the only major source of tax revenue the government can go after. You can’t take it off-shore. Many other investments can be sheltered in todays global world, but not real estate.
Just heard a story of an upper income type in Vancouver with a big house in South Van and a condo downtown. Uses the condo for an office and to stay overnight when he works long hours and doesn’t want to fight the traffic. Just got a bill for $41k for an “empty house tax” because it isn’t his primary residence. This is for 2017, and is on top of all the other taxes. Trying to sell it as fast as he can.
Changes in voter sentiment also take a long time. Right now too many people think that good people work for the government and should have high pay and no risk. Only greedy people invest for profit.
Hey Garth, you were so sure rates were going up. It seems like the opposite keeps happening on real estate markets and interest rates for the past 10 years. What now Garth? What now???
Rates did rise and are not done yet. – Garth
#5 AK on 11.28.18 at 4:06 pm
“Higher rates would prick Trump’s bubble at the worst moment. His big tax cuts and fiscal stimulus wallop of last year are wearing off. ”
=====================================
Indeed. November 2020 is less than 2 years away. Soon, he will be hitting the campaign trail. He will do anything to avoid a recession.
————————————————————-
He hasn’t gotten off the trail since he was elected by the number of MAGA rallies he has been having. Expect a lot more of them in the coming months.
Welp, it appears the 5th retrace of approx. 80% from the all-time high has now run its course for Bitcoin.
One of the most obvious opportunities to 25x your principal within 2 years.
“Rates did rise, and have not stopped yet. – Garth”
-That feels like the goal posts are being moved though. Rates did rise yes, but not as much as they were expected to in order to normalize to a healthier long term average.
The corollary to this is that rates appear to not be able to rise too much because of a few ugly facts: debt levels are too high, central banks are now political (apparently…how pathetic), stocks/bonds are addicted to low rates, businesses are addicted to low rates, and homeowners are addicted to low rates.
These are not secrets. That’s why this blog was one of the few worried about substantial rate increases and now has to back track a bit. Oh well.
MF
None of those reasons impact monetary policy. If anything, they would force rates up. – Garth
The seeds of the next financial crisis were sewn in the last. So much debt created by cheap rates held down far too long, and now policy makers are cravenly chickening out on correcting their error before the job is done. What tools will they have to use when the debt bubble comes crashing down?
#13 Penny Henny on 11.28.18 at 4:42 pm
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#18 Penny Henny on 11.28.18 at 5:03 pm
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#20 Penny Henny on 11.28.18 at 5:09 pm
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I believe Lionel Richie summed this situation up best.
You’re once….twice….three times a crazy…
M44BC
More proof the game is rigged. That’s what any bear worth his salt will tell you #1.
The debt will continue until morale improves!
Now back to the wheel!
As I cautioned the readership here…there will be no appreciable increase in rates in the U.S and Canada won’t just tap the brakes, it’s going to throw this thing into reverse when the wheels start to come off. Watch it happen.
The decision to close of the GM plant in Canada likely would have been done some time ago. These decisions are strategic and require a good deal of review and approvals.
I think it has more to do with the future of the auto industry and the migration to electric driverless vehicles.
However an argument can also be made for the high cost of Canadian labour. Too often we see people crying on the 6 o’clock news because they’ve lost their job. It makes me wonder what they’ve been doing with time off to improve their skills in the event of a factory shutdown where they are out of a job.
if there is no appreciable increase in rates what can we expect status quo, up or down?
We are witnessing a minor adjustment or a hiccup in market conditions. The upward path has been clearly established for increasing rates in the longer term, so prepare accordingly.
Analysis by Global News suggests the same extended crime network may have laundered about $5 billion in Vancouver-area homes since 2012. (Global News, November 26, 2018)
AND
The C.D. Howe Institute study estimates of money laundering in Canada range from $5 billion to $100 billion. C.D. Howe Report, (September 2018)
It’s called the “Vancouver Model” and I mashed up the links here http://www.chpc.biz/history-readings/dirty-real-estate
Remember the Panama Papers? and Cyprus?
Now, the “Vancouver Model: is rampant in Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal.
Drugs > Casinos > Gangster Financing > Real Estate
Ok it’s official; we have in Canada a huge problem with offshore criminals and onshore administrators tilting the playing field (NIRP, ZIRP, CMHC, CRA) and of course FOMO.
This is a big complex hidden story that has been a major influence on our culture, and there is no end in site because gangsters (autocrats) are winning.
Violent Crime in Canada bottomed in 2014 but has increased 9% to 2017 (Statista)
We have been duped into irrational behaviour and we are now exposed to tremendous global criminal forces that are overwhelming our societal norms and controls.
Interest rate increases on hold may embolden more speculation in some markets; Toronto months of real estate inventory is under 3 months, but Vancouver’s supply is over 6:
http://www.chpc.biz/mar-moi.html
The real test of affordability for most tax paying citizens is still income. Make sure you can count on it if you are bidding on real estate that is still at historic prices.
El-Erian: Fed will have to go through with another rate hike next month or risk appearing politically influenced
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/27/el-erian-the-fed-will-have-to-go-through-with-four-rate-hikes.html
re: bellweather. i think it’s bellwether.
Santa does not deserve cookies.
He’s a fat, lazy capitalist who works 1 day a year.
He employes children who have to work under deplorable conditions producing cheap toys in China.
#32 Tron,
The high cost of Canadian labor? You have a problem with working people being able to afford decent food and shelter?
So wrong headed. Had they been paid a low wage it could have represented a problem for the trilateral trade deal. Mexico had to promise to RAISE auto worker’s wages to qualify.
And alas, auto jobs are vanishing in U.S. too,
as other posters have pointed out. Trump’s tariffs make it too expensive to import material for parts.
But if it makes YOU feel better to think everyone is totally in control of their own destiny unless they indulge in the economic debauchery of decent pay for hard work, well go ahead.
So where’s the best places in Ontario to Buy/Rent, and still be within a couple hours of Brampton/Miss/Toronto??
It doesn’t matter if the Fed doesn’t hike rates much anymore. If they get in two more rate hikes that will be enough. It is already enough. There are too many forces conspiring against the GTA and the GVRD. They are not just interest rate related. Sales in the GVRD are already in the dumps at current interest rates. The prices are so far beyond normal that a rate hike or cut of 0.25% won’t make a difference.
Nothing good comes from saskatoon
Here’s the kicker…
With a 20 Billion annual deficit, Trudeau and the Liberals are in the lead according to the latest polls!
#3 Steve Rowlandson
It’s a typo…was supposed to read Cookies for Santa, but someone mixed up the last few letters of Jolly Saint Nick’s name.
Are you saying it’s time to dump bank stocks?
As I noted in post #35 above… the gangster are winning:
#43 Oakville Stinks on 11.28.18 at 7:01 pm
“Here’s the kicker…
With a 20 Billion annual deficit, Trudeau and the Liberals are in the lead according to the latest polls!”
====================================
Coming from the CBC, equivalent to CNN’s “Fake News”..
“According to the CBC’s Poll Tracker, an aggregation of all publicly available polling data, the Liberals lead with 37.3 per cent support nationwide, putting them four percentage points ahead of the Conservatives, who trail with 33.1 per cent.”
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Photo reminds me of Dana Carvey as his frumpy and overly devout Church Lady character that appeared during segments known as “Church Chat” on SNL in the late 80’s.
On one Church Chat “she” was talking about how Santa bounces boys and girls, up and down, up and down, on his knees implying, well, you know what…
“She” then takes out a magnetic board with SANTA spelled out and asks who do you suppose makes Santa do that, then rearranges the letters and asks:
Could it be…
SATAN?
Short excerpt of the magnetic board ending:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8_mePjkQW_c
Moisters, you weren’t even a glimmer in your Daddy’s eye back then and if so, you were in or fresh out of the diaper phase of you existence back then.
For those that like Rob Lowe, in one episode Church Lady spanks him for being a bad boy with a what looks like a Cricket bat, it was pretty funny.
For the young, a lot of the humour was about events in that period of time, still, Church Lady’s dance…priceless (watch the above video first and repeat):
S-A-T-A-N.
——————————-
Off topic Garth but worth a watch for the uninitiated.
Yes, I know…Buonanotte.
OK Garth, I lied.
My last post was a penultimate Buonanotte.
I forgot to mention today (night in Italia):
Between me with Church Lady and
#29 For those about to flop…
with Lionel Ritchie (THAT was good Flop), it has to be:
80’s RETRO NIGHT AT THE BLOG.
All we’re missing is a Disco reference…
Buonanotte, for real.
I posted this in the other thread but this one was posted right after.
https://betterdwelling.com/city/toronto/toronto-new-condo-sales-drop-over-43-inventory-rises-nearly-18/
So even condo sales are down in Toronto – 43% year over year (October sales) and an 18% increase in inventory. If you think that might mean good news for detached homes, unfortunately not – they took an even bigger hit (46%) and the inventory increased even more (30%!).
So with condos now on the downswing, the entire market is going pop. We may, hopefully, see a crash to reasonable prices, but I suspect that government action (especially Ontario, as Doug Ford is apparently tight with developers) will prop the zombie market up to the overall detriment of everyone except recent homebuyers.
That change in pricing at the end of this article is exactly what made this house I bought in S’toon affordable to me. It may drop a little more, but so what? I’m content with the outcome so far.
funny, when Obama was President, Trump was mad at the Fed for keeping rates low… now he’s mad they are raising them.
Same goes for unemployment numbers- trending lower under Obama, fake news… trending lower for Trump and he says he’s thankful for himself.
Remind me why people like this chump Trump?
So Garth,
I had thought that the historically low rates didnt allow the Fed or Finance Minister any “wiggle room” if they eventually have to lower rates again during an economic slow down?
Or do you think Poloz will eventually have to bump up rates to keep the Canuck buck from sinking?
Good question Garth, is there nothing to worry about? Or is this little mini market pop a good time to get out…
I still believe a rate hike is all but certain. Strong jobs growth numbers coupled with inflation at or around 2.5% means another hike coming. In relation to Powell’s comments concerning we are “near neutral”, one can interpret that there’s room for one more .25% rate hike in Dec. Powell can then declare “neutrality” with one more rate hike and the markets can recover a little bit… until earnings and inflation reports in Q1 change everything. At that point, Powell will have to make a decision, fight inflation or adjust to a slowing economy. My money is on inflation.
Maybe… what if…. maybe Trump will get impeached! Problem with that theory is that it takes a majority congress and a 2/3 Senate vote of which the Republicans have 53 Senate seats out of 100. It would have to be beyond bad to see Trump impeached and even though he should be, I don’t see that happening.
Maybe… Trump will end the trade war with China! I don’t see that happening either. Traitor is as traitor does. I see it ending with congress in Q3 of 2019 but by then, the damage is done.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/26/tariffs-could-cost-american-households-2400-each-in-2019-study.html
If projections in this chart above can be trusted, the U.S. drops between 1.5 to 2% GDP in 2019 from a trade war with China and tariffs alone. Couple that with a global slowdown (with China leading the way) and we will likely see a recession maybe sooner than one thinks or, GDP hovers near zero and inflation soars (how can it not?), the dollar falls and the fed will have to act with higher rates triggering a recession next year.
Nothing’s changed for me. Still see a U.S. recession in Q1, more likely Q2 of 2020 and a Canadian recession in Q3 or Q4 of next year. But then, if I had a buck for all the times I’ve been wrong in life…
35 Brian Ripley
The handling of any illegal activity in Canada by our authorities and courts and any crackdown is pitiful and disgusting.
Human rights,… Canada the good. We are this utopian Paradise ripe for the taking. Innocent caring humanitarian people unaware that they are going to be conquered. The world is a very tough place outside of Canada’s borders and humankind has learned all the nasty tricks. They’re going to use them on us , (the sheltered kid with no street smarts).
Hey Garth how about a pic of the tug?
RATM
Ah the greater fool cycle. Give the bears hope…then more hope…then a punch in the gut. I’m doubtful rates will rise enough to make a large enough dent in the gasbag. There’s a wealth divide alright…those that bought and those that didn’t (the fools)
The gasbag is already torn. – Garth
#32 Tron
It makes me wonder what they’ve been doing with time off to improve their skills in the event of a factory shutdown where they are out of a job.
______________________________________________
I guess they were feeding their family, coaching teams , volunteering and living life.
What improvements are you currently taking in the advent your job is toast? None, but I have several you could really use, starting with empathy but that won’t happen because its not job related and would only make you a better person.
Garth sounds like he’s angling for a New York Times gig… 10 year expansion?
The first 8 was more like a snails pace, but good of you to cover for Obama’s fairy tales as he makes the rounds demolishing every Ex POTUS norm in the book…
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I have always loved your turn of a phrase. “dropped like Tony Clement’s shorts” is a classic. All hail the masterful Garth.
“deficits of close to $20 billion a year will be the Trudeau legacy”
You shouldn’t argue with an academic.
Japan and cheap re was mentioned other day, interesting read.
https://www.travelandleisure.com/travel-news/japan-free-abandoned-house
—-
Hey KLNR
I was using gargler to look for opportunities few months back, something that can be scaled up or down for working stiff, than i came across blog post (link below), reading it didn’t help me at all.
What i found interesting but to late to ackt on it that few business around closed up and become dispensaries. Is this possibly one of those opportunities you were referring to?
http://arnerichmassena.com/blog/incredible-shrinking-stock-market-whats-happening/
Your all jealous because there is a complete line from the mini on up. I wouldn’t mind having one myself, and is a class act on the water for fishing or cruising. Looks study and practical for a fun ride of it alone.
happy thoughts
no panic lots of Time
Saskatoon had a massive run-up in house prices in the 2000’s. The fact it came down some ain’t surprising.
It was called the Saskaboom.
Where is a VRM still available for 2.5%?
#57 Doug t on 11.28.18 at 8:42 pm
Hey Garth how about a pic of the tug?
The Jag is going to wager a guess it is a Ranger Tug.
And we want to know what he named it.
What is its registration?
I wonder if the name “Endurance” could be resurrected, or does that belong to Ernest Shackleton? Weigh in maritimers, we prairie folk know nothing of these matters. I like the idea of Garth and Shackleton being intertwined. Kind of romantic and appropriate to my thinking…
63 Post“deficits of close to $20 billion a year will be the Trudeau legacy”
You shouldn’t argue with an academic.
————
Millenials are used to debt, know nothing else. “ you are richer than you think philosophy”
They will vote him in next election.
They do not understand debt but use it to live their good lifestyle. Hence their huge debts.
Trudeau has the same philosophy for the country.
Huge debt. What does he care?
He will get voted in again, since the sheeple do not comprehend the implications of debt
“deficits of close to $20 billion a year will be the Trudeau legacy“
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Garth, you need to aim higher. Trudeau’s legacy will be deficits much higher than that! That is $20B with relatively good conditions (considering the past decade) – low unemployment, ok Cad growth, good global growth, really good US growth, soaring govt revenues, etc.
The deficits will be $50B+ when the next recession hits, and they are likely to stay up there until we face a 90s style reckoning. And the Libs, unfortunately, are likely to win the next election, so T2 will be here when that happens.
#43 Oakville Stinks on 11.28.18 at 7:01 pm
Here’s the kicker…
With a 20 Billion annual deficit, Trudeau and the Liberals are in the lead according to the latest polls!
_ _ _
Oooh, $20 Billion CAD, scary! Have you seen the size of other G20 budget deficits? Hint: Canada is doing well.
https://www.statista.com/chart/10156/budget-balance-of-g20-members-as-share-of-gdp/
“Cookies for Satan”? Took me awhile. Did our fearless leader lose me with his daily opening picture? No, just his inner dyslectic God.
I’m back in Toronto for a week dogs.
Who’s in for some drinks?
Yesterday our beloved RCMP threw in towel on money laundering and racketeering charges on the alleged $250 million dollar operations of Silver investments in Richmond. They were allegedly laundering drug and corruption for members of an unnamable community in a unnamable country whose very mention spikes crazy hair fire in our most politically correct pundit. It’s likely business as usual for those couriers of hockey bags full of cash that went in one door as twenties and right into (allegedly) a real estate purchase scheme. But don’t mention that, because foreigners don’t exist in that market as we’ve been told, repeatedly. Sad day for Canada. Does make me wonder about the publicity around the RCMP returning all that unnaccounted for cash that came in from that unnamable country. Sad. It’s open season on Canada. But Trudeau did say ” We’re open for business”. He just didn’t say what kind.
Meanwhile, in that same unnamable country, and I’ll continue not to name it for fear of being called all sorts of childish names. 10% of 3 trillion USD denominated corporate bonds have defaulted in the past month. Trump has Xie over a barrel at G20 Friday. The Great Unnamed is sinking faster than expected. The ancillary effects are imaginable. More corruption money will flood into Canada now that the RCMP has been neutered and defamed, more suited to handling baggage than crime.
Will Trump re-apply tariffs on impoeted autos? He should. He has no reason to give Trudeau and hand out, not after the way he and Freeland yakked up behind his back. Europe would be devasted, so what? Jerry Dias would go catatonic. But what a deserved object of ridicule to bark at GM over 2300 Oshawa mortgages when AB has lost 100,000 jobs a month for two years, and billions in revenue to Canadian citizen owners of our energy resources. What did Trudeau/Butts do, laugh? Hypocrisy is a blood sport in the Satanic Circles of Liberal power.
Canadians need to lose all respect for our broken political system, it’s either revolution or desperation, you choose. As Garth mentioned, taxes must go up to service the burgeoning debt. 100% might wake you up, by then it’ll be too late.
Agree, CPD is a buy. But there are much better deals in individual equities that pay better dividends with better fundamental growth prospects. My play on the CPD would be (and I’m not) , if your underwater, hold until par and sell out for the juicy growth of a Dividend Aristocrat equally oversold.
Fed’s statement was political.
The chance of December rate hike just increased from 75 % to 83 %. So mortgages go up.
However stock markets – Dow, Europe, emerging markets will keep going up long term.
GT said it perfectly: invest and forgetaboutit.
It won’t help housing in Canada that is doomed, the 3-4 times overpricing in GTA and Vancouver due to excess credit has to correct one way or another.
Far worse than the coming housing crash is the disappearance of the jobs due to the fake economy that we built combined with extreme cost of living, and of course the impact to TSX that will under-perform for quite a while – no investor’s interest due to idiotic liberal policies, plus the sheeple has no money to invest, it has to pay the mortgage.
It is interesting to see how second T2 term in office will shape the nation (sorry, post nation), it looks increasingly likely as he just bought the media with our tax money.
Don’t we love that democracy, that we used to have.
#57 Doug t on 11.28.18 at 8:42 pm
Hey Garth how about a pic of the tug?
RATM
—————- Just Wondering ————
Did I call it when you posted a pic of your beautiful pup…with the “Unsinkable ” moored off in the distance along the sea Wall?
Think my comment was… “Garth bought a Boat?”
IHCTD9, have you encountered this guy? Lots of IHC TD’s, and a wealth of hard-won knowledge. No WD’s tho’; found him on the redpower board:
kingofobsolete.ca
This whole up and down ride this fall/winter with markets has been a great learning experience. Not to say it was THAT bad, but I feel holding steady during each volatile period makes me more ready for the next. Hopefully when the big correction comes, I won’t even bat an eye.
#72 AGuyInVancouver on 11.28.18 at 11:55 pm
#43 Oakville Stinks on 11.28.18 at 7:01 pm
Here’s the kicker…
With a 20 Billion annual deficit, Trudeau and the Liberals are in the lead according to the latest polls!
_ _ _
Oooh, $20 Billion CAD, scary! Have you seen the size of other G20 budget deficits? Hint: Canada is doing well.
_____
Come on dude – you can’t make a judgement call on our financial condition based on how much worse other countries are doing. That kind of logic is for little kids.
An annual 20 Billion dollar exit wound is not doing well.
I don’t give a rip if Saudi Arabia is doing worse.
Another day another criminal money laundering trial is quashed in BC.
These non starter “non trials” are costing us millions in RCMP salaries, overtime, wages……
And the fentynal keeps flowing.
https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/criminal-charges-stayed-in-major-b-c-money-laundering-investigation
Let me know when we get back to February 2016 stock prices.
The rate hikes in Canada and the US, and US companies leaving Canada while the Canadian savings rate is at all-time lows and debt is at all-time highs should expose how many people were swimming naked during the monetary expansion phase in both Canada and the US.
#74 Smoking Man on 11.29.18 at 1:20 am
I’m back in Toronto for a week dogs.
Who’s in for some drinks?
——————————————————————
I’ll buy you all the anti-freeze you can drink.
I missed the whole “Escape” post reaction, so I wanted to just say this:
I am open to all kinds of places, but I drastically fear one thing: rednecks.
That’s not to say all smaller towns or cities are redneck, but that does seem to be their stomping ground.
Trudeau should stay in Canada for a few days a year instead of going to G2 and G7 and G20 and g25 and UnitedNations, WTO and IMF Meetings. It seems he just likes to be seen which is about all he is cut out for, Shaking hands, wearing ridiculous socks and burning Canadian Tax money on flights all around the world. He should just stay in Canada and try to fix some of our problems. One big problem in BC is the Chinese Cartel who launder money in casinos and then buy really expensive real estate and import fentinal killing our young people. This is all noted and spoken of by the Attorney General on CYV. So Garth, this has been going on for years here in BC and we the people on the street have known it but our government is just now finding out. Our RCMP say they are aware but are not staffed to handle this. I sure wish we had a leader instead of someone wanting a seat at the UN at our expense. Jason Kenny where are you.
#75 David Driven on 11.29.18 at 2:10 am
Canadians need to lose all respect for our broken political system, it’s either revolution or desperation, you choose. As Garth mentioned, taxes must go up to service the burgeoning debt. 100% might wake you up, by then it’ll be too late.
_______
Here’s a better plan:
First, understand that there will be no revolution in Canada. Also understand that no politician can “fix” the issues as they stem from the voters not politicians. T2 leads the polls because just enough Canadians don’t really care all that much about our financial or economic condition, high taxes, or adequate revenues.
Once you have that put to bed, understand that Canadian voters need to experience some pretty good fear and hardship before enough of them rearrange their priorities such that politicians eventually see it in voter feedback, and put basic 1st world economic needs back into their platforms.
So how does one bring these events about? Pretty simple, we’re already gushing good paying full time jobs like an open hydrant, we’ve already seen massive core Canadian industries like oil and mining shrivel up into quivering of mediocrity, we know revenues have took a pounding right alongside all these events, and the budget of course; has definitely not balanced itself.
So, the ball to a serious revenue problem is already rolling and picking up speed all on its own. To speed it up a little more, do just three things:
1. Vote for morons like Trudeau, with the hope that they may receive a majority.
2. Make big changes in your own life to reduce your tax remittances. There are tons of things you can do via your consumption habits, personal habits, and via tax sheltering and offsetting – plus avoiding all the fees and permits you possibly can. Even a little effort can make a big difference.
3. Get prepared. I expect the financial strain on regular Canadians to keep on increasing a little more every year. Actively pursuing maximum financial pain for our leadership and the Citizenry at large, means you need to be debt free, hardened against new taxes and fees, and have a little pile built just in case your job goes up in smoke too. You should do all this anyway, so get started if not already.
I will make a second post dealing with it# 2+3 in more detail
Everyone should check out BOOTS AND SUITS. There you will find the names of Senators who may vote down Bill69. You can do your part.
Well,
Looks like the EU is NOT going to “renegotiate” Brexit no matter what the British Parliament votes.
https://ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/idCAKCN1NY1EP-OCATP
So…. a “no deal” Brexit with financial pain to follow?
https://ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/idCAKCN1NY0TX-OCATP
https://ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/idCAKCN1NY0ZJ-OCATP
#77 Spectacle – The Ranger Tug is built in Ontario north of Toronto, and has been for decades. The Mini Tugs can be found in the Muskoka area, and thousands attend the Tug Fest in Midland. There is none finer, and forget the fancy speed boats, because this is class that demands respect. Any young lady who wants to cruise, and given a choice, will pick the Captain driving a Tug.
#86 IHCTD9, agreed, the sheeple voting Liberal obviously like being sheared. In Medieval times there was a contagion of ‘ dancing fits’ where for no reason large groups of people would dive into a communal panic and flail around, inexplicably for days on end, with no obvious catalyst, it happened over generations. This sounds to me certain much like the last election, when a mass of Canadians were bewitched by a sockpuppet .
The evidence of a mass fraud re: climate change is in. Now that the head Warlock of Doom, Barack Obama and his army of carpet baggers aren’t confusing people with a billion dollar propaganda campaign and threatening key academics with dismemberment, it’s going to surprise you , but it’s all been a ruse to raise money for UN bum rub causes aka ‘globalism’. Hah, and the globalists are in a panic, Angela Merkel is calling German nationalist “traitors” for believing themselves to be German. Sound like our own Globalist Dictator , “Little Potato”.
https://www.iceagenow.info/mini-ice-age-in-a-matter-of-months/
Climate Barbie and Junior Butts are so out to lunch it’s crazy funny. Somehow we need to embarrass the CBC and the Unions to stop supporting a lie and start telling Canadians the truth, literally, the Emperor has no clothes.
#86 IHCTD9 on 11.29.18 at 8:26am
You must have read my mind, I talk to my wife almost every day about this. Admittedly though a sad testament to the state of affairs in Canada these days.
@88 Fartie;
This Brexit thing has been fascinating to watch. Farage and Boris have taken an extreme position, but don’t seem to want to take control; I guess it’s more fun to sit on the sidelines, muss up your hair, and throw words about.
PM May is, despite her vote of “no”, is an absolute public servant – the public voted “yes”, so she’s keeping the decision of the public forefront.
Interesting watching this unfold. Sad, but interesting.
Interesting on how the public is swayed by words and emotions, but not on the underlying meaning of things. The soundbite rules.
I do wonder whether it was worth renewing my UK passport. Time will tell.
Oh well – Garth – you also get my pat on the back; you, May, and some others understand the underlying principles, even if you do throw the odd zinger in (Tony Clements’ Shorts, for one!).
That’s not to say all smaller towns or cities are redneck, but that does seem to be their stomping ground.
What an awful assumption! I live (20+ years) in a community of sub 5,000 that is close to larger communities but nothing over 20,000.
I am surrounded by artists of every stripe, writers, theater groups, local charities that actually do something, various rehab groups all volunteer driven…we have in my immediate neighbourhood, teachers, RCMP, contractors, college instructors, a dentist and me…
You see “fearful of others” type person, in a small community we don’t wall ourselves off into segments, we live, love and laugh altogether. Even the lesbians have terrific senses of humour.
Now, every once in a while I have to trek to the big city…for either a professional hockey game or to attend a board meeting for an outfit that would have me on the board…and its there I encounter racism, bigotry, misandry and misogyny, lack of humour and the love of Trump covering up for feelings of inadequate masculinity…just like in this comment section.
So stay in the big city, among those who make you feel comfortable. Means my community remains charitable, empathetic and happy.
Canadian tax revenues are routinely squandered by inept politicians put in place by birdbrain voters. The best plan is to just pay less of them – and it’s not that hard to do.
First, understand that there is almost nothing you can do in Canada without paying a fee, a tax, for a permit, or a license, and multiple combinations of these. The good news is that means there are limitless ways to pay less. Here are some of the methods I employ:
1. I shovel into RRSP’s and TFSA’s I have received 10’s of thousands worth of taxes back. Our combined return is 5 figures every year.
2. I claim everything I can on my return, I employ a Pro to help with this
3. I buy many things “like new”, but used (Kijiji etc), less costs and zero taxes paid.
4. I buy from Amazon.ca – for unknown reasons, much of the applicable taxes are not charged – I’ll take it.
5. I fix things myself when they break – often modifying and adapting “in stock” parts to work. Many times the repair is free but for my time. No taxes paid on parts and services not purchased. I’ve saved 10’s of thousands over a couple decades – along with all the taxes that would have gone with that amount.
6. I shop the local FNR’s – you can save huge dollars here on some stuff – why? No taxes of course! Government is scared stiff of the Natives and I hope it stays that way ensuring decades of savings.
7. Whenever it’s an easy no-brainer – I don’t bother with regulatory fees like building permits, demolition permits, fire permits, yard sale permits etc. I know how to do all this stuff just fine. I go ahead and do what I want and skip all the useless costs, time, and BS.
8. I get a registered appraisal done on replacement vehicles now, cut the value in half and save a grand or more on taxes. Dishonest? Yes. Is paying taxes to the government on a used car for the 13th consecutive time fair? (true story, I was paycheque #13 for the gov. on a used car years ago) Nope, it’s not. I call it even.
9. I don’t smoke or drink regularly – this stuff is taxed so bad here in Ontario that I’ve watched out of Province folks literally shaking their heads in the aisles, and at the checkout counters. I can buy a 26’er of Rum for 11.50 in the US, here it’s 27.50. ALL taxes. I think smokes are like 16.00/pk these days
10. Garbage/Landfill used to be a government service paid for by my taxes – now I pay them piles of cash on top of said taxes to use said services. I found other ways to deal with these wastes – no charge.
11. I use a one time alternative fuel for heating. It used to be tax free too, but now it is taxed. I am collecting/building the equipment to make this same fuel myself, the feed stock will be free from local supplies. Huge cost savings – big taxes not paid out.
12. I am doing the same for vehicle fuel – using the exact same fuel I hope to heat with. Thousands saved every year, transportation fuels are massively and relentlessly taxed. I hope to bid adieu to that whole hamster wheel. This is not for everyone, but it’s right up my alley.
13. I push back when provoked. When Wynne put the license stickers up for like the 3rd or 4th time in a row, I did not renew on my recreational (3rd) vehicle, pulled the plates and insurance then sold it. When the Province decided I needed to pay more to maintain my Z license, I told them to forget it. I will do the same again for my D license in a few years as they’ve done the same thing to that now too. Fuel and carbon takes may just make me one in a million persons or less – who don’t use gasoline.
Other folks will have abilities, talents, resources etc, that I don’t and could add another 13 to the above list.
There are no special “opportunities” blog dogs … you can’t outrun this market. This year everything is down. The sentiment is to sell the bounce, not buy the dip. Growth is slow and debt will weigh heavily. Headwinds from all directions.
There are greater fools in every market. Don’t be a chump.
This cannot be done without risk today, and the best option by far is a balanced portfolio managed by a fee based advisor. The world has changed too much to time the market for buying and selling investments held.
Allright, a quickie for #3:
Don’t do any of that stuff I mentioned if you have a large mortgage burden, or any tough to manage debt. You need to be solid yourself if your MO becomes hacking at the ankles of the society you live in.
Might as well help it along though, the sooner the better. I hate to say it, but T2 getting another majority is the best thing that could happen. He’d run 20-25+ Billion deficits every year, and almost none of it would do any good for anyone.
Everything important would keep on going to sh!it, while he dresses up like a dork and blows billions on foreign SJW initiatives, trying to reverse the sexist climate change, and avalanche awareness programs.
Just make sure you’ve hardened yourself against the fallout.
Recent sale report.
You want capitulation?
I will show what capitulation looks like.
Another day ,another 500k plus loss.
The details…
3918w 18th ave Vancouver.
Paid 5.60 April 2016
Sold 5.29 November 2018
Originally asking 5.98
Assessment 5.62
So after expenses they took it in the teeth for close to 600k.
It must be noted that they bought this house brand new and it is only a few years old not some rotten piece of garbage.
Most of the city is now in correction mode.
Places like East Van ,Burnaby,Richmond and North Van are experiencing different levels of corrections.
On the Westside houses that were going for 2.5 not that long ago now struggle to get 1.7
I think it is now fair to say that the Westside of Vancouver and West Vancouver are now suffering from a total collapse…
M44BC
https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/3918-west-18th-avenue
#93 Ustabe on 11.29.18 at 10:47 am
That’s not to say all smaller towns or cities are redneck, but that does seem to be their stomping ground.
What an awful assumption! I live (20+ years) in a community of sub 5,000 that is close to larger communities but nothing over 20,000.
I am surrounded by artists of every stripe, writers, theater groups, local charities that actually do something, various rehab groups all volunteer driven…we have in my immediate neighbourhood, teachers, RCMP, contractors, college instructors, a dentist and me…
You see “fearful of others” type person, in a small community we don’t wall ourselves off into segments, we live, love and laugh altogether. Even the lesbians have terrific senses of humour.
Now, every once in a while I have to trek to the big city…for either a professional hockey game or to attend a board meeting for an outfit that would have me on the board…and its there I encounter racism, bigotry, misandry and misogyny, lack of humour and the love of Trump covering up for feelings of inadequate masculinity…just like in this comment section.
So stay in the big city, among those who make you feel comfortable. Means my community remains charitable, empathetic and happy.
——————————————————
You assume way too much about me. I don’t live in “the big city”. And I clearly said not all small towns or cities are occupied by rednecks – and what I mean by that is confederate flag waving, monster truck driving, bigot type people. Those people don’t tend to be living in High Park.
Now of course there are bad people everywhere, including Toronto, and I never suggested otherwise. Neighborhoods vary as do small towns from place to place.
“Even the lesbians have terrific senses of humour.” – I don’t even understand what that is supposed to mean. Do they normally not?
#78 Y. Knott on 11.29.18 at 5:12 am
IHCTD9, have you encountered this guy? Lots of IHC TD’s, and a wealth of hard-won knowledge. No WD’s tho’; found him on the redpower board:
kingofobsolete.ca
____
Yep! I’m a big fan of his webpage. Joey I think? He was featured on “Ice Road Truckers” a few times along with “The Screaming Ford” Interesting lifestyle and love how he still whips the old IH’s and CAT’s into doing the heavy work around Lynn Lake Mb. I bet he knows more about these old machines than anyone else in Canada.
Duals Rule! and thansk! :) (haha)
#94 IHCTD9 on 11.29.18 at 11:14 am
Those are all fantastic tips for avoiding tax, and are highly appreciated, but I can’t help get the feeling that the CRA has a department that creeps financial websites, looking for ways that people say they’re avoiding taxes, so they can close all the loopholes. Greedy bastards wouldn’t surprise me. I don’t know, it might be good to keep some of the good ones secret and only share them with trusted friends. Then let the smart folk figure it out for themselves.
Rates are doomed to stay low forever. No surprise there. How could anyone think that rates will ever go up significantly? That would destroy the economy.
#61 Why delete a legitimate post? on 11.28.18 at 9:16 pm
DELETED
.. oxy-moron ..?
@#93 Ustabe on 11.29.18 at 10:47 am
That’s not to say all smaller towns or cities are redneck, but that does seem to be their stomping ground.
What an awful assumption! I live (20+ years) in a community of sub 5,000 that is close to larger communities but nothing over 20,000.
I am surrounded by artists of every stripe, writers, theater groups, local charities that actually do something, various rehab groups all volunteer driven…we have in my immediate neighbourhood, teachers, RCMP, contractors, college instructors, a dentist and me…
You see “fearful of others” type person, in a small community we don’t wall ourselves off into segments, we live, love and laugh altogether. Even the lesbians have terrific senses of humour.
Now, every once in a while I have to trek to the big city…for either a professional hockey game or to attend a board meeting for an outfit that would have me on the board…and its there I encounter racism, bigotry, misandry and misogyny, lack of humour and the love of Trump covering up for feelings of inadequate masculinity…just like in this comment section.
So stay in the big city, among those who make you feel comfortable. Means my community remains charitable, empathetic and happy.
______________________________
lolol, pot calling the kettle black.
Your generalizations are as dumb the one you’re critiquing
#84 Frank The Tank – I grew up in a small farming town, and also lived in the largest cities in Canada. Hence, know and experienced both sides of the fence, and things have changed. The rednecks like you call them are all living in the bigger cities such as Toronto for example. Now we migrate to the smaller town communities to get away from the crime, higher costs, better housing, and the rat race of it all, to once again live the good life in peace with others who come from all professions, both rich or poor in harmony. Fear not this opportunity and adventure, and test the waters with a vacation.
Every news story to come out of BC really seems to reveal the place as a steaming, putrid pile. Carole James and David Eby seem to be doing their best to clean it up but the place is as dirty as the ocean water receiving Victoria’s raw untreated sewage. Fentanyl offshore drug money propping up a criminal-strewn housing market – just when you think the story can’t get any worse.
To those who won the housing lottery out there, was it really worth it? Honest question. Was it all worth it?
Don’t believe everything you read. – Garth
#80 IHCTD9 on 11.29.18 at 7:38 am
_____
Come on dude – you can’t make a judgement call on our financial condition based on how much worse other countries are doing. That kind of logic is for little kids.
_ _ _
Do you think Canada gets a Boy Scout badge for a balanced budget, when every other country is taking advantage of deficit financing? It doesn’t work that way. Canada’s yearly deficits are miniscule in the big scheme of things.
An annual 20 Billion dollar exit wound is not doing well.
I don’t give a rip if Saudi Arabia is doing worse.
#105 Fear Not on 11.29.18 at 12:51 pm
#84 Frank The Tank – I grew up in a small farming town, and also lived in the largest cities in Canada. Hence, know and experienced both sides of the fence, and things have changed. The rednecks like you call them are all living in the bigger cities such as Toronto for example. Now we migrate to the smaller town communities to get away from the crime, higher costs, better housing, and the rat race of it all, to once again live the good life in peace with others who come from all professions, both rich or poor in harmony. Fear not this opportunity and adventure, and test the waters with a vacation.
—————————————
I understand what you’re saying. Again, I don’t live in the big city. I live in Newmarket and before that Toronto.
With all due respect, I never saw a single redneck when I lived in Sunnylea. Or many of the surrounding areas. Now, have I been to every corner of Toronto? No.
DELETED
New terminal building at Kenora airport could attract more flights, official says
Airport manager says he hopes to add routes between Kenora, Winnipeg, Thunder Bay and the U.S.
CBC News · Posted: Sep 14, 2018 8:00 A
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/thunder-bay/kenora-new-airport-1.4822818
$1.7M boost for the Sudbury Airport
Porter Airlines also gets funding for local maintenance facility
CBC News · Posted: Apr 20, 2018 3:27 PM ET | Last Updated: April 20
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/sudbury/sudbury-airport-nohfc-funding-1.4629089
Christmas is coming early up that way, and wonder why so many listings there, and in the general area too. It appears way too many listings for this time of the year – interesting! Its a growing city, and looks very nice, but where is everybody going upon a potential sale?
#99 Frank The Tank on 11.29.18 at 12:20 pm
… And I clearly said not all small towns or cities are occupied by rednecks – and what I mean by that is confederate flag waving, monster truck driving, bigot type people. Those people don’t tend to be living in High Park.
_____
I think I know what you’re getting at. I work in a small town, and a kind of those people are present. You won’t really see them at public gatherings and such, and if you don’t have to work with them – you’re good.
I would characterize them as “old school blue collar” as redneck makes a guy think about the southern US stereotype which as far as I can tell, does not exist up here.
These types are essentially simple minded, overly opinionated folks with very poorly reasoned world views, and probably not too well educated. I have to think they exist everywhere.
#107 AGuyInVancouver on 11.29.18 at 1:26 pm
The problem with a $ 20 billion dollar deficit from the Libs is that when one looks at the record of the previous government, one will see that the Harper government ran up $ 170 billion in his last 8 years averaging $ 21 billion a year.
Not saying that’s cool, I’m saying the previous government normalized it so the voter asks themselves, “what can we do to improve on this? A voter change?” According to history, it won’t. We’ve got a new leader for the Cons Andrew Scheer who looks upon Harper as a mentor…. and with his hitching a ride to that train takes on all the baggage and previous expectation. Not politically smart, if you ask me but that’s just me.
I see the Libs winning another majority due to the NDP not doing so well. The Cons need the NDP to split the vote and that’s not happening according to poll #’s. My best guess why that is, is due to the NDP’s choice of leader. Perhaps Canadians will warm up to him as they become more familiarized but I believe Canadians will judge this book by its cover and good or bad, will see NDP numbers fall and Libs retain a majority as a consequence.
What I don’t like about the Libs (they all have their faults) is a void in vision, a refusal to take the tough stands needed against corporate will to protect the consumer. I’m not against corporations making profit here, but at the health of others, that’s bad and needs to be stopped, but isn’t because people have no true grasp of how serious some issues are. Here’s an example of what I’m saying:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tHYu8NlWDLU&t=1844s
If you have an hour and 40 minutes to burn, you will see my point.
Ok, so… after watching this, you will likely be wondering if there is anything safe to eat. Of the 600,000 or so products on grocery shelves in
North America, 75% have added sugar. So, you tell me. The main message is, eat whole foods. Eat foods in their natural, raw form that haven’t been processed. Its the only way to keep added sugar out, and fiber in. There really isn’t much choice unless you wish for a metabolic disease and/or obesity.
Lets again look at the numbers. Of the 240 million American adults in the U.S. , 72 million are obese (30%) and of that 30%, 80% have a metabolic
disorder meaning 60 million Americans. Of the 168 million Americans that are considered “normal” weight, 40% also have a metabolic disorder. 40% of
168 = 67.2 million. All told, there is 60 + 67 million = 127 million people out of 240 million with a metabolic disease. Today!
Right now, in North America, (we can include Canada with this), its more than 1 in 2 adults that have a metabolic disorder, at least 75% of which
is totally preventable with diet and I’m thinking that percentage of 75% is actually higher, like in the 80’s.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metabolic_disorder
And that’s just metabolic disorders. When one adds cardio, cancer, mental health… the numbers keep going up, up, up and the food that we eat is the smoking gun.
Until we have a government in the world, any kind of government that is willing to stand up to the dangers what food manufacturers are selling consumers and so far I see nothing, we will continue to see what we have now, billions of unhealthy people straining the health care systems toward collapse.
We want to fix our deficit? Fix the food supply!!!!! Set an example for other nations to follow! I mean, its not like food manufacturers don’t know the side effects of what they are selling and they do it knowing they will benefit off of your poor health and reduced life span. Same as selling cigarettes:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4cpdb78pWl4
#101 Renter’s Revenge! on 11.29.18 at 12:30 pm
#94 IHCTD9 on 11.29.18 at 11:14 am
Those are all fantastic tips for avoiding tax, and are highly appreciated, but I can’t help get the feeling that the CRA has a department that creeps financial websites, looking for ways that people say they’re avoiding taxes, so they can close all the loopholes. Greedy bastards wouldn’t surprise me. I don’t know, it might be good to keep some of the good ones secret and only share them with trusted friends. Then let the smart folk figure it out for themselves.
___
100% they do. Most of the stuff I mentioned is not illegal. Not buying permits is not their turf, nor is garbage disposal.
All that is small potatoes to the CRA when they’ve got hundreds of millions being blatantly evaded illegally.
The best idea I have is getting off the energy treadmill and I already spilled the beans on that one :).
#88 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.29.18 at 9:19 am
Well,
Looks like the EU is NOT going to “renegotiate” Brexit no matter what the British Parliament votes.
https://ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/idCAKCN1NY1EP-OCATP
So…. a “no deal” Brexit with financial pain to follow?
https://ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/idCAKCN1NY0TX-OCATP
https://ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/idCAKCN1NY0ZJ-OCATP
—
Few weeks ago on a way to work i was listening to podcast about brexit and who all that unwinded since referendum in 16.
Basically my understanding is that all this time uk was trying to figure it out how use free trade with Ireland as a back door to eu, but as of lately they are getting lots of push backs from brussel.
It is basically eu telling the you in or out. I don’t know what kind of pressure is on ireland not to go along with free trade with uk, but there most be some.
Older article from 2017 pretty much states same, but podcast had lot more details.
—-
https://euobserver.com/uk-referendum/138879
BRUSSELS, 5. SEP 2017, 09:24
Ireland cannot be part of creating a “backdoor” into the EU’s single market after Brexit, Irish foreign minister Simon Coveney said on Monday (4 September).
112 IHCTD9 on 11.29.18 at 2:48 pm
#99 Frank The Tank on 11.29.18 at 12:20 pm
… And I clearly said not all small towns or cities are occupied by rednecks – and what I mean by that is confederate flag waving, monster truck driving, bigot type people. Those people don’t tend to be living in High Park.
_____
I think I know what you’re getting at. I work in a small town, and a kind of those people are present. You won’t really see them at public gatherings and such, and if you don’t have to work with them – you’re good.
I would characterize them as “old school blue collar” as redneck makes a guy think about the southern US stereotype which as far as I can tell, does not exist up here.
These types are essentially simple minded, overly opinionated folks with very poorly reasoned world views, and probably not too well educated. I have to think they exist everywhere.
—————————————————————–
Boy, I would like to know how you breath with your nose so high in the air.
#111 Newmarket on 11.29.18 at 2:21 pm
Christmas is coming early up that way, and wonder why so many listings there, and in the general area too. It appears way too many listings for this time of the year – interesting! Its a growing city, and looks very nice, but where is everybody going upon a potential sale?
———————
It is burgeoning to say the least. In terms of listing volume, I suspect two things; 1) Lots of older citizens have unfortunately passed or need care & 2) Speculation. Newmarket was a target of speculators during the boom. It could be that with rates having risen and the market not as frothy to say the lease, they are trying to unload.
@#84 Frank the Tank, those “red necks” will pull you out of the ditch in a snowstorm. They’ll offer you a neighbourly hand if you need it. They’ll teach you how to garden, how to preserve food, even how to shoot and kill your own food (or fish it out of a lake) if you want. In short, they’ll make a hell of a lot more time to be neighbourly and helpful than your average over-stressed urban progressive.
I guarantee you will not like their political views. You will almost certainly find them “racist” and “sexist” and “xenophobic” by your own standards. But shocking as it might be for a progressive urbanite who has never bothered to differentiate the political from the personal, people aren’t defined by their political views. Character is something entirely apart from politics, and infinitely more important. If you can’t get past that, you’re better off staying in the city.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/29/fed-points-to-december-rate-hike-but-is-worried-about-tariffs-and-debt.html
Can’t see how they won’t raise it. 3.5% Q3 GDP…. 3.7% unemployment… they are concerned with tariffs and debt levels as they should be but the numbers haven’t come in yet.
When they do, its decision time based on market reaction to earnings and inflation. Do they fight inflation by propping up the dollar, or ease debt loads and let it fall as money leaves the markets causing further inflation?
The U.S. does well with a strong dollar. With a weak dollar, not so much. The Fed knows it. Trump doesn’t. Trump has been on record numerous times saying a weaker dollar is good.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/25/trump-weak-dollar-policy-could-kill-economy-analyst-bove-says.html
Trump is either docile, is gaslighting the masses with a weaker dollar being a good thing because the dollar has fallen 14% on his watch or traitor is as traitor does. There is no argument to be made here concerning the strength of the dollar’s impact on the economy, one need only look at history to know the truth of it.
#113 Crazyfox on 11.29.18 at 2:51 pm
#107 AGuyInVancouver on 11.29.18 at 1:26 pm
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The problem with a $ 20 billion dollar deficit from the Libs is that when one looks at the record of the previous government, one will see that the Harper government ran up $ 170 billion in his last 8 years averaging $ 21 billion a year.
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Not sure if you are deliberately avoiding the context differences, or truly are unaware of recent history.
The Fed deficits under Conservatives from 2008-2013 occurred as a result of what became known as the “Great Recession”. The worst global recession since the 1930s Depression. It left scars in the US that are only recently healing.
To add further context, it was a proposed coalition of Libs/NDP/Bloc (yes, the separatists) that threatened to take vote down in non confidence government if spending was not increased to help with issues of said recession. Yep – the Libs, NDP and Bloc demanding more spending (re: bigger deficits).
Contrast this to the T2 Liberal deficits, which are occurring during the expansion phase of this economic cycle, with some of the best global and US growth in a decade to pull us along. Federal tax revenues are growing quite well, and it is being spent along with $20B in borrowing.
Do you see the difference? (not holding my breath)
#116 paul on 11.29.18 at 2:56 pm
Boy, I would like to know how you breath with your nose so high in the air.
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Right.
So how would you describe a loud mouthed racist bigot?
I though I was being reasonably gentle considering the options on hand.
#118 Alistair – nailed it.
#118 Alistair McLaughlin on 11.29.18 at 4:07 pm
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I don’t think those are the folks Frank was talking about.
There are folks like you describe everywhere, the “other” folks I think we’re referring to are rare, and usually associated with more backwoods locations.
The kind of “rednecks” you describe are most of the folks I know, and I doubt Frank would feel fearful around them.