By Guest Blogger Ryan Lewenza
The holidays can’t come soon enough! We need a little holiday cheer in our lives after the early lump of coal we got in October with the steep stock market declines. As we closed out the third quarter the global equity markets were doing ok. Global equities (MSCI World Index) were up 5.9% as of the end of Q3 with the S&P 500 driving most of the gains, up 10.6% including dividends. The TSX continued to lag up 1.4%. Well this all changed at the beginning of Q4 with the S&P 500 declining 9% and the TSX losing 6% as of November 21st. What the heck happened in October that caused this year’s gains to evaporate with many global equity markets now in the red for the year?
Equity Market Performance YTD
Source: Stockcharts.com, Turner Investments. As of November 22, 2018
The October sell-off was triggered by a strong economic report with the release of the September US nonfarm payrolls report. The report showed that the US unemployment rate fell to a 49-year low of 3.7%. This great news story led to market participants pricing in more inflation, and in turn, more Fed rate hikes. Bond yields spiked on the news, which was the spark that led to the first wave of selling in the equity markets.
Then Trump and his crew compounded the sell-off with continued threats and comments regarding their trade dispute with China. For example, Bloomberg published a report that Trump was preparing another round of tariffs and the stock market gains on the day quickly turned to steep losses following the news. And then last week we heard strong comments from VP Pence over China’s trade practices, which also contributed to last week’s declines. The Trump administration can blame the Democrats, the Fed et al. for the recent stock market weakness, but the reality is their tough stance with China is contributing to the negative sentiment on the equity markets and the recent volatility.
So the markets are grappling with concerns of Trump’s trade wars, the threat of higher interest rates, a moderating global economy and one-off issues like UK’s Brexit and Italy’s ongoing budget feud with the EU. The key question is whether the global economy will be dragged down by these headwinds, or does it work through these issues with minimal drag on the economy, thus keeping this bull market intact?
Our call right now is for the latter, and this view is predicated on a few key things.
First, almost all bear markets are caused by the US and global economy falling into a recession, and we just don’t see this in the cards for 2019.
From my investment strategist days I closely studied recessions and bear markets trying to isolate those economic and market indicators that gave us a good early warning of approaching recessions. From this analysis I created a “Recession Monitor”, which is a list of these key leading indicators and can be seen in the table below. This list includes things like US initial jobless claims (they tend to spike ahead of recessions), the ISM manufacturing index (it rolls over and declines below the key 50 expansion level), the yield curve (it inverts) and credit spreads (they blow out). Currently, none of these indicators are signaling a major slowdown in the US economy and imminent bear market.
Our Recession Monitor
Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments
Second, corporate profits – which are the mother’s milk of stock prices – have been nothing short of spectacular. We just wrapped up the third quarter earnings season and it was another blowout quarter. Sales for all the S&P 500 companies were up an impressive 11% Y/Y while earnings surged 29% Y/Y, marking the third straight quarter of 20%+ earnings growth. And I see another strong quarter coming for Q4.
Some believe we’re at or near peak earnings and therefore this is going to take down the market. I believe earnings growth (i.e. year-over-year change) will peak soon as the benefits of the lower US tax rate rolls off in 2019, however, I don’t see actual earnings peaking, which if correct, should continue to support stock prices. For earnings to drop materially from current levels we would need to experience a US/global recession, and I as covered above, I just don’t see it in the cards for 2019.
S&P 500 Earnings Are on Fire
Source: Stockcharts.com, Turner Investments
The third support for our continued positive view is that the technical trends remain bullish, supporting our fundamental assessment of the markets. Below is a chart of global equities and you can see that they remain in a well-defined upward channel. Yes we’ve broken the 200-day moving average, as we did in 2015 and 2016, but we have not yet broken the lower channel line. This is critically why we’re not freaking out over the recent bout of volatility. As they say, a picture is worth a thousand words.
Global Equities Still In an Uptrend
Source: Stockcharts.com, Turner Investments
Finally, for the first time in a while equity valuations are starting to look attractive. With the big increase in earnings and the lower stock prices, equity valuations (e.g., P/E ratios) have declined pretty significantly. In the US, the forward P/E has dropped from 20x in January to 16.8x currently. International stocks are even more attractive with European and Far East stocks trading at just 13.3x, the lowest level since 2013. Same thing with Canadian stocks now trading at just 13.7x. A lot of bad news is already priced in and, if there is no earnings recession, then the current valuations could be setting us up for a stronger 2019.
Global Equity Valuations
Source: Stockcharts.com, Turner Investments
Ok that’s a lot to take in and hopefully I haven’t bored you to death. I should have tried to mix in a joke about how two real estate agents walk into a bar, but alas, comedy is not my forte. What I am better at is assessing the economy and stock market and currently the weight of the evidence remains positive and supportive of our call for more equity market gains. But there’s no denying the higher risks today so we must remain open to the messages of the market and be prepared to shift our views and portfolio positioning if we start to see danger ahead. Until then, let’s enjoy some rum and egg nog to welcome the holidays and help us forget about the October sell-off.
100 comments ↓
Delusional fans of the Make Believes in Torswampo, Ontariowe, need holiday cheer big time, Ryan. Their team remains pathetic.
https://www.thestar.com/sports/leafs/analysis/2018/11/23/leafs-give-away-free-points-on-black-friday.html
Rum and egg nog is the only Cup Toronturds will be able to savour for a long time.
Hi Ryan,
From a valuations standpoint, what do you make of the S&P 500 valuations (www.multpl.com) and, in particular, the PE 10 (www.multpl.com/shiller-pe, http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm?fbclid=IwAR2tvBlzBgqn5tk2eWav6gsZWMECqTogofLR6xiPMzIUveC9HMMxI2A0vHY)?
Cheers,
Nick
…..and it probably would be good therapy for the rest of us Canadians for people in Toronto to indulge in rum and egg nog daily, keep them drunk and quiet for the next few months.
They can put it up to their lips ten times a day, and almost imagine what it’s like to hoist a real Cup!
Thankyou for the post Ryan.
Why do people take an instant dislike to real estate agents?
To save time.
A man was on his death bed, and gave $30,000 in cash to each of them, instructed to place it all in his coffin; one was his Real Estate agent, and the other was his Pastor. The man passed away, and at the funeral the Real Estate agent, and the Pastor got into a limo together. The Pastor confessed that he only placed $20,000 in the coffin because he needed a few renovations. The Real Estate agent shamed him badly with vulgarity. He told him, I put the entire amount of $30,000 in that coffin with my personal check.
Two Realtors walk into a Vancouver bar and noticed the bartender trying to change a lightbulb on a tall ladder.
“Do you need some help?”, asks one of the realtors?
“Sure, that would be great!”, said the nervous bartender, “If you guys change this bulb I’ll buy you some drinks.”
The second Realtor nodded and pulled out his phone and made a call.
Ten minutes later there were 4 more Realtors in the bar.
All six realtors then proceeded to help with changing the light bulb.
When they were finished that sat a table and waited for their drinks
“Why in the Hell did it take SIX of you to do that job?, asked the angry bartender.
“We can’t do anything unless we do it as a group”
@#5 Deplorable Comic
What do you say to a realtor in a suit?
Would the defendant please rise.
Ryan, where do you see the TSX at this time next year? Any guesses?
How many Vancouver realtors does it take to make pancakes?
101.
1 to hold the pan and 100 to flip the house.
This week’s Canadian innovation story.
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/innovation-canada-canadian-startup-wants-kill-apple-watch-151938714.html
Trading is very much like dealing with a wild animal.
If it is running, try to climb on top of it.
If it is thrashing or dying, don’t touch it until it stops.
If it is not moving, try and turn it into food
INCOMPETENCE, wrong blog ICYDK… no bites because folks here only care about money, not football.
Someone moved next door to his office with a sign that said, list with us and its sold in 30 days or we will buy it. The following week another office moved in on the other side with a sign that said, commissions paid only 3%. Well, this Broker had enough with these unethical realtors. He covered his picture window with his sign that said Main Office Here Come Inside For Details.
Enjoyed the read .
Ryan , with all due respect you underestimate how crazy Trump is . IF, the G20 doesn’t go well and Trump says as much wrt China I wouldn’t be surprised if Monday dec 4th a global market sell off occurs . Sentiment has dramatically turned .
Hey Ryan, thoughts on why preferreds are falling off a cliff? I hold HPR etf. Seems all are down 10%, CPD, ZPR etc…
Will they climb back up when this correction is over?
Any insight is much appreciated!
Nick “From a valuations standpoint, what do you make of the S&P 500 valuations (www.multpl.com) and, in particular, the PE 10 (www.multpl.com/shiller-pe).
The Shiller PE is a valuation metric I use but it doesn’t drive my decision making process on the market. I lump it in with Warren Buffett’s market cap to GDP ratio. My issues with the Shiller PE are 1) it’s not a great timing tool, 2) it doesn’t capture the changes in the underlying S&P 500 earnings (more earnings these days come from the tech sector which has much higher profit margins), and 3) it’s had a overvalued reading for almost all of this bull market so if just depended on this then you missed a historic bull market run. – Ryan L
@#1 50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE! on 11.24.18 at 2:25 pm
Delusional fans of the Make Believes in Torswampo, Ontariowe, need holiday cheer big time, Ryan. Their team remains pathetic.
https://www.thestar.com/sports/leafs/analysis/2018/11/23/leafs-give-away-free-points-on-black-friday.html
Rum and egg nog is the only Cup Toronturds will be able to savour for a long time.
______________________
wrong blog loser.
JSS “Ryan, where do you see the TSX at this time next year? Any guesses?”
Higher. The TSX is very cheap at 13.5x, earnings should rise on the decent Canadian/US economy, and the energy sector looks washed out. I would say 10% by end of the year. – Ryan L
Great entry “Ryan , with all due respect you underestimate how crazy Trump is . IF, the G20 doesn’t go well and Trump says as much wrt China I wouldn’t be surprised if Monday dec 4th a global market sell off occurs . Sentiment has dramatically turned.”
I agree the G20 meeting is important. I’m hoping for a positive meeting between Trump and Xi Jingping. If not we could see a short-term sell-off. – Ryan L
Until then, let’s enjoy some rum and egg nog to welcome the holidays and help us forget about the October sell-off.
——————————————————————
Good idea, but I’ve got an even better one. Let’s use this recent sell-off to scoop up some Black Friday sales on stocks and ETFs.
@crowdedelevatorfartz, post #8 and Not So New guy, post #12:
I got a good laugh from your posts!
Trudeau Economy: Surge In Number Of Canadian Businesses… Going Bankrupt.
https://www.spencerfernando.com/2018/11/24/trudeau-economy-surge-in-number-of-canadian-businesses-going-bankrupt/
Well done Ryan, excellent analysis, but some words of caution as we are, after all, talking about risk assessment.
Firstly, the data we use to look for risk and you’ve laid it out nicely: ISM manufacturing index (it rolls over and declines below the key 50 expansion level), the yield curve (it inverts) and credit spreads (they blow out)… are all rear view mirror meaning by the time these numbers correlate, we are already in a falling market, or in recession.
In other words, its too reactionary. Its not to say we shouldn’t be following this data, not at all, it gives us a heads up on the severity and does give us some reaction time but not as much as we like. The tell tale signs are in the streets, in the coffee shops, its in the air and its in the minds of those connected to the volume and intensity of the drum beat of war and despair getting to the heart of why this blog has value, but I digress.
I like the Shiller PE ratio chart:
http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/
Because it filters out some of the noise and what do we see when we look at this chart? I see risk. I see a market rising only if everything is going well but its not all going well, not really. The two largest world economies are in a serious 25% tariff on all trade war with each other. For the first time in U.S. history, we have a president who’s loyalty to his own nation is under serious question and should be.
We’ve never had a president that has notably taken the U.S. down a path of diplomatic, defense and to some degrees, economic isolation (Paris accord, huge cuts to state department, serious talk of getting out of NATO and the WTO, walking away from large trade agreements with Europe and Asia, the unnecessary NAFTA 2.0 which still isn’t ratified and still has base metal tariffs imposed), this is no longer the behavior of a nation that has previously built its empire’s strength on world trade through diplomacy and alliance.
Take Trump’s foreign policy stance on Iran as an example. Trump demonized Iran as a nation of terrorists that can’t be trusted with nuclear research and so, trade embargoes against oil must go up on Iranian exports forcing Iran’s customers to stock pile oil for months and pursue oil from the Saudis. And then, Trump does an abrupt U-turn granting waivers to oil exports on 8 nations causing a glut in world oil supply and the price crashes. This is classic market manipulation of the price of oil and lets not think for one minute that there isn’t big money with prior knowledge of this cashing in. Cashing in on oil’s rise, cashing in on its fall, cashing in on its recovery, its price manipulation from the WH and the whole world is watching.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/investing/video/trump-saudis-make-fundamental-oil-analysis-impossible-analyst-sen-says~1545487
I can’t help but think Trump has exercised a 1.4 million BOE per day U turn with Iran in granting 8 waivers to other oil import nations from sanctions against Iran for insider trading with hedge funds. Trump spent months talking up trade sanctions with Iran forcing their customers to stock up and switch to Saudi oil forcing the price of oil up with world expectation that 1.4 mil BOE’s per day of production was going to be shut in, only to do a U turn like this?
This is Trump world now. Gutter politics. Corrupt. Traitorous. That kind of noise is going to make the markets quick to hit the sell button but I again digress.
I don’t see a U.S. recession next year, I see it hit in Q1, more likely Q2 of 2020 and a Canadian recession comes sooner. You are welcome to read more detail if you are interested:
#108 Crazyfox on 11.23.18 at 11:52 pm from yesterday and #194 Crazyfox on the S word thread.
Again Ryan, nice piece.
Amazing work. Really like your rescuing moniter data would be cool to see an update of it once or bu monthly. Thank you for bringing some clarity!
crowdedelevatorfartz I burst out laughing. Loved those jokes.
“First, almost all bear markets are caused by the US and global economy falling into a recession, and we just don’t see this in the cards for 2019”.
US up, everyone else down.
Check the quarterly reports from the big banks, deposits transfers from Canada to the US of Awesome continue.
Business Taxation needs a redo…fast.
Hard to imagine interest rates moving up any further, unfortunately continued rate pressure adaquetly represents future risk, the bond market has it right, RISK ON, quality assets will be tested in the near term.
Is the TSX undervalued?
Not when you include currency risk.
Ontario will likely receive a bond rating downgrade in the coming year, higher rates in the near term keep the current trends in check, sideways down.
Congratulation to the sellers, if you sold in the last 60 days before the October blues hit, you may smarter then you think.
Good luck to all, and thanks you Ryan, Garth & company for all the important work that you contribute.
The stock market is like Calgary weather. If you don’t like it today wait because it will change.
Wow Ryan…………..that’s alot of technical and macro analysis which I interpret as I really don’t know what the heck happened! It is what it is Ryan. More people wanted to sell with fewer and fewer buyers. At the end of the day someone has to own the stocks and to get others to buy them the price has to come down. The reasons don’t matter. If you have quality Funds, ETF’s, REIT’s, Stocks etc…..and there is nothing wrong with them then buy more while they are on sale! If you bet wrong and lose on some of them…………who cares! It’s only risk capital money. Since I only invest money I can afford to lose it really doesn’t matter what happens since taking some losses, if I had too, won’t affect my lifestyle at all.
What it is with our elite controllers, people figure they wish to control our energy. All utilities are run by monopolies with records prices and taxation charged for these relatively ancient technologies. Carbon taxes will be part of this scam.
(Survaillence technology like social media and wifi, remains free of course)
Our mood are regulated by real or made up headlines blaring in their unison from screens every where. “Deadly mass attack”. “Tensions increase”. They sure do ours. Daily fear and tension.
Yes a day will come, a family starving unable to reconnect their utilities trying to cook their megre rations via fire or camp stove. Neighbours complain, armed UN-trained cops and threatened arrest or removal of children into State custody over environment transgressions. Good luck getting to wilderness and independance in your electric People’s Car with its few hundred KM range and 8-hour charging times.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-the-death-of-the-montreal-bagel/
“a member of the city’s executive committee whose responsibilities include the environment, said that wood-burning businesses unable to meet emissions bylaw requirements would be forced to switch to gas or electric. The decision, which came a few weeks after a bylaw banning the burning of wood in homes took effect, would affect approximately 70 businesses, including Italian pizzerias, Portuguese chicken joints and bagel bakeries. “
There exists in the markets a very special class referred to as the “Bitcoin Believers”.
These are the peeps who have chosen to accept a certain idea or notion and cling to the belief regardless of any evidence that might, for anyone else raise a red flag, bring it into doubt.
They are the ones who encourage and support the right to be a bag holder. No amount of evidence, no matter how strong, will change their enlightenment.
They are the sheep who beg to be fleeced and butchered, and who will battle fiercely to preserve their right to be victimized by Bitcoin.
Bitcoin $3,700 today
Thank you for the post Ryan. I appreciate the level of detail, and the perspective you bring.
Greater fool theory comes back to haunt bitcoin and tech stocks: Don Pittis
Bitcoin bust and tech bear market — isolated blips or symptoms of something else?
Don Pittis · CBC News · Posted: Nov 21, 2018
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/crypto-markets-downturn-1.4912807
Great post influenza.
Loved it.
Al
Exceptional explanation and reasoning. Thank you
2018-2019 may rhyme with 2015 -2016. The low did not come in until Feb 2016. That is what I see looking at the charts , another potential leg down before things get squared away. But things are more uncertain now than this time in 2015. There is less confidence for rule of law, less confidence the truth will prevail, less confidence in the national leaders.
#18 arfmoocat on 11.24.18 at 5:56 pm
There exists in the markets a very special class referred to as the “Bitcoin Believers”.
These are the peeps who have chosen to accept a certain idea or notion and cling to the belief regardless of any evidence that might, for anyone else raise a red flag, bring it into doubt.
They are the ones who encourage and support the right to be a bag holder. No amount of evidence, no matter how strong, will change their enlightenment.
They are the sheep who beg to be fleeced and butchered, and who will battle fiercely to preserve their right to be victimized by Bitcoin.
Bitcoin $3,700 today
—-
On monday morning i was told how its good time to buy more bitcon and that it will take off from that point. Over next few min i tried to explain poor soul that he got all that wrong, maybe iota make some sense, but that an idea that he hold in hes head that bitcon is currency, store of value and something that will revolutionize and put an end banks and corporation gauging with their fees.
So i asked what about exchange fees, fees for makers and takers how do you explain those, and i told him a story of my chq account being emptied and with in few days (and some frustration) acc was made hole by bank, or that time when some one skimmed my visa and bougth probably all inventory of food supplements in some ge en cee in uk, how visa handled that. Then i conveniently i asked what about those hacked account will those people ever get their bitcons back?
oh bitcons…as a dude says being bitcon advocate is like veganism of financial world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-zIbVEjVpQ
IMHO the October selloff was caused by something real simple…
Profit taking at year end.
Hedgies, banksters, seem to always sell in early Oct.
I always do after having my lunch eaten in the 90s’. I sell Mid- Sept. Then buy back in November.
I bought a 40% position back in most of my favorites.
I’ll buy back more as we get to the new year.
Octobers seem to be smack the dumb money months as advisors tell their fish to hold as they sell out the back door.
Like the 80 years before it.
There is a reason October collapses are common.
No BUYERS!
Well except the soon-to-be -bagholders who sell in early November back tot he elites as they load for the following year.
Is that chart eps or absolute earnings? I think absolute is not up much other than due to one-time tax cut. I see recession coming…
Quality of life continues to dive in Toronto, as thousands now live in darkness in their overpriced condos.
https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2018/11/24/as-toronto-gets-more-and-taller-condos-the-city-is-left-grappling-with-shadows.html
All those sad people closeted in their dark sky high condos, afraid to go outside because of the incredible murder rate on Toronto’s streets, too uptight to ever go outside to interact with neighbours (like there’s any such comradery in soon-to-be-falling glass wall condos there) and now they will only get to glimpse sunlight a few precious times each week.
And other idiots think those ‘investment properties’ are worth $750K. LOL. What a bubble.
Real worth is more like $4000, the Japan prices Garth quoted this week.
At least when the glass towers have to be torn down in a few decades, there will be a little more sunlight. Say, by 2050 or so.
Maybe the Make Believes will win by then, too.
See, Toronto…it’s all good. :)
Nice article Ryan. I appreciate your insight and the straight forward argument you make.
Pink Pumpkins being carved in Vancouver.
Starting to see an uptick in the amount of court ordered sales on the market.
The squeeze is definitely on.
Some have been in what most would call the luxury market,where supposedly only the well-to-do dabble.
This one is pretty much your run of the mill East Van house.
The details…
1727 e 22nd ave,Vancouver.
Paid 1.77 September 2015
Originally asking 3.3
Now asking 1.69
Assessment 1.78
So I guess that main points on this one is the delusional original asking price and also that this is yet another 2015 purchase that is in deep trouble.
Some of the houses that were bought in my area for around 1.4 are still getting bulldozed when cheaper options were available if you were going to go that route.
I see a big red flashing light.
Some of the developers I work for are seeing flashing amber, and proceeding with caution but optimism.
Next year is looking like it is going to set the tone for the 4 or 5 that follow.
Dunno,people are seeing what they want to see,I guess.
I write my posts through the lens that I see with my own eyes, and feel with my heart to be true.
I try to write real estate entertainment pieces, that is take something fairly mundane and jazz it up a bit.
Some people take my posts out of context,they are not meant to hurt anyone.
Marvin Gaye perhaps summed it up best.
When I get that feeling I need contextual healing…
M44BC
https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/1727-east-22-avenue
With all due respect, the arsenal of techniques that exist for forecasting investment trends is similar to charting and other techniques by astrologists – while it all looks very fancy and accomplished, and certainly requires a lot of studies (nobody is disputing that), the big question is whether the resulting forecasts are meaningful in any way. In the investment realm, the main problem is that there are so many intelligent investment professionals, who in effect all bring their sophisticated analyses to bear in what in essence is one gigantic zero-sum game (fluctuating around the trend line that is the rate of risk-free return, in essence) that as a result all this analysis cancels each other out – that is, the real market movements are as a result determined by factors that are, in essence, random (around the risk-free trend line). This is in essence a refined explanation of the efficient market hypothesis. While that hypothesis may not hold fot certain markets, for widely-traded publick stock it is quite accurate. That does not at all mean one should not work without any professional advice, indeed I do so myself, and certainly Ryan seems to be very good at his job judging from the weekly contributions on this blog. But for the ordinary man in the street with savings to invest, one can easily see that none of all the sophisticated analysis will convince them that it will help increase their return on investment. I remain in doubt myself. Ryan, do you have any persuasive argument that can skeptics should be aware of in order to properly judge the benefits of involving a professional advisor?
PS thanks for your always-insightful blog contributions!
“The October sell-off was triggered by a strong economic report with the release of the September US nonfarm payrolls report.”
Or maybe the almost 10-year-old market mania is finally exhausting itself. Tech is starting to copy YVR housing. Asking for a friend: How many folks here really think the TSX will be higher this summer?
Pink Pumpkins being carved in Coquitlam and Burnaby.
I will do a double pumpkin as I have already featured these guys but they both just played around with their asking prices.
One sensible, one stupid.
Only featured these guys less than a couple of weeks ago when they relisted after taking a break.
The asking they come up with at the time was 1.38.
Well they just hacked another 50k off and are already losing money after failing to sell the house at the first attempt and deciding to give the house a facelift.
This is the one were I showed the before and after photos where they chopped the tree down and in my opinion made the house less attractive.
These guys are at least trying to find out where the market is and get someone to the table to exit the market and put their mistakes behind them.
819 RONDEAU ST COQUITLAM. Paid 1.28 March 2017
Now asking 1.33
https://www.zolo.ca/coquitlam-real-estate/819-rondeau-street
https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAzWE5WTg==
Another house I showed a couple of weeks ago is going the other way and doing themselves no favours.
I featured these guys when they lowered their price to 999k in a desperate bid for attention.
Fair enough,no one expected them to sell it for that,get someone interested and then try to close the gap between 999k and 1.49.
What these guys have done is decide to burn any interest from that stunt and put the ask back up to 1.56.
Now it could well go for that number,this is Vancouver real estate, anything is possible, but as an act of community service I’m gonna give these guys a friendly reminder.
Not just these guys, but anyone trying to offload old,stale,product that the market has refused to swallow.
Newsflash people,you can now get a starter home on Vancouver’s tony Westside for the same money.
Which one do you think is gonna hold its value better short and long term?
I’m pretty sure the one I showed in Arbutus that just sold for 1.54 is roughly the same age as this one.
Some of these guys are getting funky information for sure…
M44BC
7922 Suncrest Dr,Burnaby.paid 1.49 March 2017
Was asking 999k
Now asking 1.56
https://www.zolo.ca/burnaby-real-estate/7922-suncrest-drive
This is the house that just sold on Vancouver’s Westside for 1.54
2833 West 18th Avenue, Vancouver | Sold on Nov 7 | Zolo.ca
https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/2833-west-18th-avenue
An excellent post, Ryan. People tend to focus on the immediate and place a greater emphasis on ‘bad’ news than good news. Thus any market correction or downturn immediately sees headlines & pundits proclaiming that ‘the end is nigh’. Disaster being so much more exciting, which is why all those epic apocalypse movies are so popular & continue to be made.
Good post…
But the entire thing could’ve been summarized as follows:
“(From 2016, November), Trump Giveth us a Bull (with tax-cuts, etc.); now Trump’s Bull$hit may Taketh it All Away!”
—
“The key question is whether the global economy will be dragged down by these headwinds, or does it work through these issues with minimal drag on the economy, thus keeping this bull market intact?”
—
I believe that ‘this bull market’ has already ended, so it cannot keep ‘intact’, as you state. It will likely rebound enough to calm the nervous ones (a lower high), and then plunge again to lower lows. This is the definition of a bear market that makes sense to me.
But WTH do I know?
TCC
I am still laughing about our trade agreement because all along our negotiators didn’t know who they were dealing with. It was not the President of Mexico, but AMLO who takes power on December 1st. Trump and AMLO just made a deal in regards to the border issue, and now you know why a bi-lateral agreement was made excluding Canada. AMLO hooped what he wanted, and there will be surprises in the future.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-24/bank-canada-start-buying-mortgage-bonds-canadian-housing-market-cools
Don’t know if the Zero guy is correct, but this is absolutely a giant mistake the Bank of Canada is making. The housing sector is collapsing because it is overheated and physical supply is in excess. The Bank of Canada should be using monetary policy, ie: interest rates, to fight the slow-down in the Canadian economy. Not targeted buying of bonds in a sector which is already in severe overcapacity.
I have to do a little bit more research on the topic, but I think I will actually mail my first letter to the Minister of Finance and to the Bank of Canada Governor if the Zerohedge article is actually correct.
14 of my 17 holdings are now negative. How much rum is required?
The little things that go bump in the night
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-23/bank-of-canada-expands-assets-for-balance-sheet-management
Canary!
Ooops.
Sorry Ryan. I was picturing a trophy wife and got distracted.
Cheers, R
Well, hello again, Ryan. Just wondering if you had a chance to consult your team of energy geniuses to see if they would share their assumptions and methods for determining that Canada is losing revenue at the rate of $90,000,000 a day because we are unable to get our diluted bitumen to markets. You had made this claim in your previous column. Rachel says it’s $80,000,000 a day. My energy consultants say both figures are rubbish.
#43 Pierre ” [Is there] any persuasive argument that can skeptics should be aware of in order to properly judge the benefits of involving a professional advisor?”
For you? Nope. None at all.
RE: “The holidays can’t come soon enough! We need a little holiday cheer in our lives after the early lump of coal we got in October with the steep stock market declines. ”
Dude, this is not a “lump of coal”.
The lump of coal has been the ridiculously overpriced equities markets this past couple of years.
The current crash is like someone opening up the heavens and dropping gold on top of you.
Markets are a turd show. People buying stuff they don’t understand, driving the prices up, then dumping it at the sniff of decline. A lot of human nature at its worst.
For someone who can dig into companies, understand their metrics and their values, and get “panic selling” these sorts of market declines are basically like someone backing up a truck full of gold bars to your house and saying “this stuff is worthless, I’ll sell it to you for whatever you want, just get it off my truck”.
This is Christmas for equities. This is a gift from the Gods. This is the most wonderful time of the year. I can buy stuff at discount, fire sale prices, for absolutely no reason.
Coal? No. Just a massive buying opportunity that, due to the weirdness and shortsightedness of the human race, comes alive once every ten years or so.
Shopping spree. Equities on sale. Be greedy when others are fearful. Ridiculously low prices for quality products.
Crash, markets, crash. I am in heaven……
I wonder why wage growth spikes prior to a recession. Maybe due to low wage earners being laid off? I guess be careful what you wish for BC Dippers…
Btw. #1 – although I love your use of Torswampo, how dare.you pile up on us poor Leaf fans… Shaame, shaaame.
Pink Pumpkins being carved in West Vancouver.
Let’s add these guys to the long list of people in trouble in West Vancouver.
People had gotten comfortable with demanding and getting Shaughnessy type of prices on the North Shore and now that the air being let out this area is ripe for some possible 40-50% losses in the coming years if the current trajectory continues
These guys just took out the hedge trimmer and shaped 400k off the price.
You see this a lot.
People start with the dreamer price and then instead of battening down the hatches and moving the product so it doesn’t turn into a million dollar loss ,they instead drop the price to around 7% to cover all expenses comfortably for the inconvenience of not making any money on Vancouver real estate.
A lot of people that got too cute in 2017, when they had a chance to bail have paid a steep price in 2018,with by the looks of the stubbornness getting to grips with current conditions,ensuring more major losses to come in 2019.
If these guys have one thing in their favour it is that the house was built in 2015 so it’s not as old as some of their competitors.
Speaking of competition,that’s one thing besides current market sentiment that they have against them.
In West Vancouver there are a vast number of people trying to sell in this price bracket that purchased in they last two years with hopes of turning that into 7-8 million.
What we’ve got now is thousands of people trying to climb through the escape hatch at the same time to ensure their seat on the life raft.
Most of the people don’t even seem to know that a lot of people have already jumped overboard.
A lot of these guys are going to be swept out to sea.
Is the lighthouse over there still operational…
M44BC
https://www.zolo.ca/west-vancouver-real-estate/1715-22nd-street
1715 22nd street ,West Vancouver. Paid 4.17 March 2017 ass 4.87
Aug 14:$4,890,000
Nov 23: $4,488,000
Change: $-402,000.00 -8%
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Feel free to make a small donation for cancer research.
Flop For Fox Fund…
http://www.terryfox.org/get-involved/ways-to-give/
ryan great work, but its all bs.
the reality is that the vast majority of canadian investors make no money in the market.
the amount of individual stocks that canadians own is not nvidia or palo alto, man most people dont know where that is let along a good tech company.
go look at the real charts ryan, the real charts, of all these great public canadian companies that people own and have not seen a return in 5 to 10 to 20 years.
all the big gold and oil stocks, even bank of nova scotia has been dead money for 5 years. and on and on, most people actually have lost money,
people put up these charts of the s and p, listen 90 percent of canadian investors own bombardier or some weed stock, they eat at mcdonalds and shop at walmart, they dont own their stock , its because of firmiliarity, the canadian bias to resource stocks, the canadian tax system due to div tax credits, etc. we own crap. and the winners you guys talk about but few people own. thats the ugly truth of the canadian mutual fund and investment community.
for most people if you can earn 3% in a gic, which you can now, why waste your time with a div of 3% and no capital gain, why would you risk 1 minute or 1 dollar.
either try for 20 to 40 percent a year, which is possible, or stay home for 3,
They’ll come around and make a fair deal.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2018/09/05/trade-war-update-china-to-suffer-greater-loss-of-income-than-u-s/#49b7ab134700
Ryan, If you had extra dry powder would you add to Emerging Markets here, Canadian stocks or both?
Thank-you for your articles and enjoy your Rum and Egg Nog by the fireside.
Thanks for the clear explanation and graphs, Ryan. Hope you are having a great weekend!
Here comes the capitulation/washout week. Huge losses across all markets setting up right now! Get the popcorn out it’s going to be a wild week! This is where money goes from weak hands to strong hands. How deep are your pockets? Hold on until December…….that will be the time do add more to your positions. Here’s the TED spread for ya Ryan.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TED&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p14376210905
DELETED
BDO Canada
TAX ALERT – TAX MEASURES CONTAINED IN ONTARIO’S FALL ECONOMIC UPDATE
November 20, 2018
https://www.bdo.ca/en-ca/insights/tax/tax-alerts/ontario-fall-economic-update-2018/
DELETED
meanwhile at charging station
https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/9zwunv/supercharging_lines_are_battle_grounds/
and i’m thinking 4-5 min long visits to gas stations are waste of time, funny how this progress works.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DsedvxWUwAEQPb5.jpg
#113 Smoking Man on 11.24.18 at 1:19 am
On the road to no where. A view exists.
Happy to share.
It’s a road. Not everyone sees .
>Whatever happens, Smokey, I appreciated your company.
—
#117 Dolce Vita on 11.24.18 at 3:25 am
#184 Long-Time Lurker on 11.23.18 at 12:18 pm
Sorry I did not respond. Good link; although, Zero Hedge can be conspiratorial at times….
>It’s okay. I’m always late here. The shorts against the two banks are a warning signal. I just thought you should know in case you had money with them. Someone’s betting against them.
I’m wondering if the EU will come apart. It was a good idea as a free-trade zone (European Economic Union) then rapidly turned into something else when people weren’t watching (European Union).
>You might want to think twice before buying a Tesla in Canada: repair waits.
Surrey Tesla owner still waiting for repairs, nine months after accident
BY RENEE BERNARD
Posted Nov 23, 2018 11:53 pm PST Last Updated Nov 24, 2018 at 12:01 am PST
VANCOUVER (NEWS 1130) – Drivers interested in buying a Tesla might want to look into how long it takes to get repairs done in the Lower Mainland.
Surrey resident Rex Gao has been waiting since February, when he had his accident, and he still doesn’t know when he’ll be able to drive it.
The Model S, which he had bought in the spring of 2017, needed work on its suspension after the crash. He waited four months for the necessary part to arrive from Tesla to his Vancouver auto body shop….
https://www.citynews1130.com/2018/11/23/surrey-tesla-owner-still-waiting-for-repairs-nine-months-after-accident/
S&P 500 50×200 Death Cross is 1 day away – major decision point for the markets this coming week.
Usually, when these crosses happen, we’re about half way on the the way down which means there’s another leg down of 10+% and that sounds like 20+% overall to me or an official bear market. Plus, this follows the same cross that already happened to the Russell, so all the stars seem to be aligned so far.
If we do cross on the dark side, turning those 50 and 200 averages around, it will take a lot of time and work. I would not necessarily get out now, but I would definitely not go in, just yet.
I think the issue the ‘market’ and many people watch it have with things going forward is that, even if Trump doesn’t throw a wrench in global trade (and I believe he is a big enough ideologue to do so despite all the warnings), that still leaves us with normalizing interest rates.
This has to happen, or we will have no powder dry for the future recession you allude to. So if it isn’t trade and China that will take this lower, it will be rising interest rates.
Do you see normalizing slowing down, or ending? If not, how will this allow the bull market to continue?
What happened?
Globlists (and their agents. Mr. Butts. T2, climate barbie are to stupid to know what’s going on. ) are going to turn Canada into 3rd world country.
Look at France. The midget put a price on polution then sicks the water cannons on the minuons.
Guess he don’t know the story of Marree Antonet.
Save your country Canadians. T2 just bought MSM .
Risist.
Market cap to GDP ratio. Interesting idea. (of course anything authored by Warren Buffett is interesting). But can you please give us some background/insight on this ratio? How to think about it?
Hey fellow nuts. Sell your bitcoin now, you know where it is heading!
https://www.businessinsider.com/bitcoin-crashes-through-4000-2018-11
I dropped the mike in a lounge in funner California, David Hasttlehoof is the mayor.
Did nothing else matters. Standing ovation. Can’t believe I’m still alive. Got a shit load of cancer making a come back, blood pressure is 200 over 150..
One more song is my goal. Can I make it back to Canada next week to pencil one of my kids out of the will.
I will not tolerate disrespecting his mother. I’m the loser in the equation. He’s stupid.
Race is on. .
Hey Ryan
Today’s article calmed me down. Yeah, it’s a normal correction in a long term uptrend. One could say the XSP just double bottomed and is ready for a Christmas rally. Nice choice to move clients to ZLB 2 or 3 months ago, saved them from the WCS oil meltdown. Friday you mentioned it’s going to bounce but I don’t see it, even Steve Laut doesn’t believe it. Why do you?
Tom
Ryan, I have always liked reading your analyses which are sound and a broad based sampling of the economy.
Look at these quick numbers:
-Cdn. stock market indices increase by 50% in a couple of years.
-GDP growth rate of 3.5%.
-Unemployment at historically low threshold of about 7%.
All very ROSY.
All from 1981 just before July 1982.
Queue external economic shocks. None of which I see in your charts.
Many good at reconnoitering the past, but it’s in the future predictions…
In the end, nobody knows when it will happen…thief in the night stuff.
With a stalled RE market (20% of GDP many say) and a no growth oil industry due to a production glut that is now bringing in a FRACTION of revenues compared to a few months ago (2nd largest $ export generator) I’d say:
The sun has set, the thief is knocking at the door.
DM
I’m cool with it. I did not drop to my knees like you.
I know the end date of best before date
https://youtu.be/k3_RU30tEIE
#51 mogulrider on 11.24.18 at 7:53 pm
The little things that go bump in the night
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-23/bank-of-canada-expands-assets-for-balance-sheet-management
Canary!
=========================
That explains why the rates on bonds are so low, simply BoC is buying that crap that no one else wants.
Of course under the radar.
What a piece of lies and crap that article is:
Expanding the list of eligible assets has no implications for monetary policy or financial stability, the bank said. Bank of Canada held C$78.2 billion of Canadian government bonds and C$22.2 billion of treasury bills for balance sheet management purposes as of Nov. 21, according to its website
Somebody enlighten me:
Why exactly BoC needs that ‘quality paper’ on it’s balance sheet? I don’t need it on mine.
================================
As for buying MBS, these are the ‘quality mortgages’ that no private bank and now even no CMHC wants to hold.
I call that spreading the crap around so it is thinner and not that smelly.
Of course no one was aware of these BoC ‘operations’
“we’re not freaking out over the recent bout of volatility” not sure why investors would freak out about the asset with a stellar performance over the long period of time (by losing its value – see the chart of VXX).
Nobody knows nothing… Next 5-10 years markets may stay here and there is no P/E number that can make them do otherwise.
Perhaps stock market returns got well ahead of business fundamentals? Everyone seems to be carrying a lot of debt (GE?), and perhaps sanity is returning to the market? Can we really know for sure? I don’t count on it, rather, I see the market as a reflection of growth and productivity regularly distorted by human emotion (greed / fear).
Dividends and compounding are your two best friends.
Dolce Vita “Ryan, I have always liked reading your analyses which are sound and a broad based sampling of the economy.
Look at these quick numbers:
-Cdn. stock market indices increase by 50% in a couple of years.
-GDP growth rate of 3.5%.
-Unemployment at historically low threshold of about 7%.
All very ROSY.
All from 1981 just before July 1982.
Queue external economic shocks. None of which I see in your charts.”
I agree, none of my analysis considers an external shock which may or may not occur, hence why they are called shocks. We don’t invest based on ifs (ie what happens to the markets if Italy leaves the EU). We invest based on our analysis and probabilities (there are no certainties). Sometimes we get it right and sometimes we get it wrong. But we keep learning and trying to get better. – Ryan L
Phil “Is that chart eps or absolute earnings? I think absolute is not up much other than due to one-time tax cut. I see recession coming…”
The EPS chart is the year-over-year change of operating or absolute earnings. Yes earnings got a big boost from the lower US tax rate this year, but still revenues are up over 10% this year which is a function of the strong US/global economy. So the strong earnings were driven by both stronger revenues and the lower tax rate. But as I said this tax boost rolls off in 2019 so year-over-year growth will slow considerably, maybe to 6-9% next year. – Ryan L
#71 Smoking Man on 11.25.18 at 12:06 am
“What happened?
Save your country Canadians. T2 just bought MSM .
Risist.”
=====================================
Still not going to do them any good.
T2 and his Liberals will be without a status next election, and will take them decades to recover.
yvrguy “Hey Ryan, thoughts on why preferreds are falling off a cliff? I hold HPR etf. Seems all are down 10%, CPD, ZPR etc…Will they climb back up when this correction is over? Any insight is much appreciated!”
Yes the pref market has taken a beating in October as the current risk off environment is pushing down all risky assets. But I think this is a complete overreaction as 1) recessions odds are low so we shouldn’t see a big increase in credit spreads (this sends pref prices lower), 2) we see more rate hikes by the BoC so this should drive the 5-year GoC bond yield higher which drives the Canadian fixed reset market, and 3) the yields are still quite attractive which should put a floor under prices. We could see some more near-term pressure if markets remain volatile but I don’t see a major leg down in pref market. – Ryan L
#71 Smoking Man on 11.25.18 at 12:06 am
What happened?
Globlists (and their agents. Mr. Butts. T2, climate barbie are to stupid to know what’s going on. ) are going to turn Canada into 3rd world country.
Look at France. The midget put a price on polution then sicks the water cannons on the minuons.
Guess he don’t know the story of Marree Antonet.
Save your country Canadians. T2 just bought MSM .
Risist.
—
Now that mention Mary A.
What i learned few weeks ago, lot more interesting that what is often passed around, cake and cake eaters is usually attributed to her, but there is very good chances that line was told whole 100 yrs before buy someone else.
I dont know who is Fraser dude but he claims that Maria Teresa spanish princess married for luis some number.
What very interesting that people, some, believe that she lost her head because pesants being hungry and mad, but truth is that she lost her head for grand treason, because she was writin form “house arrest” to some nordic king and asking him to invade france and restore monarchy. If i got numbers correct
there are 2 escape attepmts, last one done them in because king would not leave without wine chest… i think that was 1st time they got cut, and second time was when swidish king came over with his army to liberate them but king trow a hissy fit and didn’t wanted to leave, and from there all went down hill for them…
and on a side note, you cant depart before make hole with that dude you owe beer to, and i heard you are paying to.
“Well this all changed at the beginning of Q4 with the S&P 500 declining 9% and the TSX losing 6% as of November 21st.”
=====================================
Within the next few months, the TSX will be looking past October 21, 2019 and I will not be surprised to see it outperform the S&P 500 by a large margin going forward.
Be ready…
#19 Ryan Lewenza on 11.24.18 at 4:29 pm
JSS “Ryan, where do you see the TSX at this time next year? Any guesses?”
Higher. The TSX is very cheap at 13.5x, earnings should rise on the decent Canadian/US economy, and the energy sector looks washed out. I would say 10% by end of the year. – Ryan L
I am not sure how we find TSX cheap when most of the profits (over 30 % of it is financials) are based on a huge credit expansion, the largest ever in our history.
60 % of the economy is consumption/credit driven.
To expect that to continue is insane in my mind.
More realistically we are looking at (sustained) real profits that are 50-60 % from the current levels, so TSX adjusted for NNP is more of a 20 times P/E.
My personal take is that the resources sector as a classical late cycle play is fine but the rest (70 %) is not, there is very little value and definitely lack of foreign investment and interest in TSX.
Keep in mind that even the energy sector is on shaky ground due to price/demand and market problems for our WCS.
If markets rebound developing markets would shoot up much more than TSX, if markets go down, the value play is Europe, not Canada.
with the incompetents in the current liberal government in charge and their ‘investment strategies’ I see no influx of foreign investors and Canadian demand is well, over, consumers are indebted to the max and have no money to invest, just debt to pay.
I had a few warnings on Canadian preferreds deleted here, I triple down on the really bad outlook for them.
We are 2 % of the world economy and anything above that allocation to TSX is not justified as a diversified portfolio in my mind.
Tom from Mississauga “Hey Ryan. Today’s article calmed me down. Yeah, it’s a normal correction in a long term uptrend. One could say the XSP just double bottomed and is ready for a Christmas rally. Nice choice to move clients to ZLB 2 or 3 months ago, saved them from the WCS oil meltdown. Friday you mentioned it’s going to bounce but I don’t see it, even Steve Laut doesn’t believe it. Why do you?”
Good to hear you found the post useful and calming. When the markets go a bit crazy it’s always good to step back, take a breath, and focus on the key economic and fundamental factors, which as I laid out still look good. We went into the low volatility ETF earlier this year as we saw higher market volatility from the Fed rate hikes and Trump. Good call as it’s only down 1-2% this year. Finally, my bullish call on WCS oil price is based on 1) WTI rallying when OPEC announces production cuts, 2) some mean reversion for the WCS/WTI spread as it’s at a record high spread and 3) the US refiners will be ramping up production soon following their downtime so this should bring back demand for our oil. I’ve just learned over time when things get so far out of whack and sentiment is so negative, then we’re usually close to a bottom and recovery. – Ryan L
If you are currently invested, you just gotta wait it out.
Forget the analysis. Forget the reasoning. Forget the postulating.
You just need to have a lot of patience.
“Do you have the patience to wait
Till your mud settles and the water is clear?
Can you remain unmoving
Till the right action arises by itself?”
~Lao Tzu
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ErvgV4P6Fzc
Look at the Dow chart. We broke the uptrend line that was in place since Feb 2016… If we break 23,500 there’s no support until 18,500.
I hope you’re right because it means higher rates, but unfortunately that chart screams sell to me. Then again, who knows.
Good post, enjoyed the read.
Fear has an effect for buying or selling investments or products on sale. A good example has been established for Black Friday with two videos published by the Sun. The Best Buy was located there with bargains to be had, but the crowds never came. It was easy to save $1,000, and walk back home because it was just another day unlike the riots in USA.
With 4 MORE YEARS! of T2 crew, TSX, record territory in 2019 and BEYOND.
@#85vanja culjak on 11.25.18 at 10:50 am
#71 Smoking Man on 11.25.18 at 12:06 am
What happened?
Globlists (and their agents. Mr. Butts. T2, climate barbie are to stupid to know what’s going on. ) are going to turn Canada into 3rd world country.
Look at France. The midget put a price on polution then sicks the water cannons on the minuons.
Guess he don’t know the story of Marree Antonet.
Save your country Canadians. T2 just bought MSM .
Risist.
—
Now that mention Mary A.
What i learned few weeks ago, lot more interesting that what is often passed around, cake and cake eaters is usually attributed to her, but there is very good chances that line was told whole 100 yrs before buy someone else.
I dont know who is Fraser dude but he claims that Maria Teresa spanish princess married for luis some number.
What very interesting that people, some, believe that she lost her head because pesants being hungry and mad, but truth is that she lost her head for grand treason, because she was writin form “house arrest” to some nordic king and asking him to invade france and restore monarchy. If i got numbers correct
there are 2 escape attepmts, last one done them in because king would not leave without wine chest… i think that was 1st time they got cut, and second time was when swidish king came over with his army to liberate them but king trow a hissy fit and didn’t wanted to leave, and from there all went down hill for them…
and on a side note, you cant depart before make hole with that dude you owe beer to, and i heard you are paying to.
_____________________________________
you two might want to consider taking an english glass or three. May help you articulate your ideas a bit better.
oh, and the black friday tinfoil hat sale is still on if you need to replenish.
Who are we kidding people. Ryan could have two pre-written posts.
“It’s all good, go get drunk”
Or
“It’s all bad, go get drunker”
God knows I ain’t steering this thing. Keep the rubber side down Ryan my good man…..bartender, I’ll have another.
i agree with the “out of whack” and who is speaking (trump crew ) but Whom do you believe? Will he “cash out” early? better check the the actuarial tables
cecil1 on 11.24.18 at 4:52 pm
“surge” ? review the math on negative slopes
https://www.spencerfernando.com/2018/11/24/trudeau-economy-surge-in-number-of-canadian-businesses-going-bankrupt/
https://www.ic.gc.ca/eic/site/bsf-osb.nsf/eng/br03984.html
Good post Ryan. You explain the facts without the bull. Unfortunately sometime during the coming week I find myself loading up on the major indices ETFs, for a second time. An arduous task.
My calculator is going to wear out if this keeps up.
Gee I wonder if the markets fell or took a miniscule drop in October because valuations are at least fifty years in the future? Trump will never let the DOW fall below the 22,500 mark but what happens when there is no Trump as president? Had Hillary won the election we’d already be seeing DOW 5,000 today.
I’m really beginning to enjoy these Saturday articles that are more technical and stock market focused. Thanks Ryan!
#93 KLNR on 11.25.18 at 12:53 pm
you two might want to consider taking an english glass or three. May help you articulate your ideas a bit better….
_ _ _
True that. Maybe Garth should delete such painfully unreadable posts rather than factual ones.
Recession early 2020 US stock market peak may june 2019