The S-word

For months Trump’s been raggin’ on the Fed. Jacking interest rates relentlessly, he says, is ‘insane’. And last week Feb boss Powell fudged a little, suggesting if The Data looks weaker in ’19, central bankers might tap the brakes.

Hmm. How about Canada? Only a few weeks ago our guy was sounding all hawkish when he upped the bank rate yet again, sending the prime to almost 4%, and broadly hinting two to four more hikes were in the cards.

Since then a new spat of volatility has hit stock markets. World oil prices dumped. The money our Canadian guys receive for their product (thanks in part of clogged pipelines) dropped to an all-time low. The US escalated trade tensions with China. In the UK, Brexit caused yet another crisis and might fell the feisty PM. Italy’s a populist mess. Merkel’s on the way out. US voters seem more polarized than ever after the midterms. And now the debt market is scaling back a little both in America and Canada as yields fall.

In short, central bankers have new data to deal with. So the questions are simple: if we’re in the later stages of the business cycle (contraction-expansion-contraction-expansion) have banks upped rates too much? Or just enough? Or still too little? Is the economy so strong, with growing GDP and jobs, that stimulus should be removed? Or are things slowing and higher rates will hasten a recession?

Let’s ask two who know.

First, Mr. Bond Market. Yields on US 10-year Treasuries are fading back towards 3%. The Government of Canada 5-year bond has retreated from 2.5%. A leading indicator for fixed-rate mortgages in Canada has declined to where it was six months ago. The big banks edged the cost of home loans up since the central bank moved, but are now under competitive pressure to back them down. Meanwhile the mortgage market has withered seriously since the stress test sheriff came to town and shot all the moisters.

Bond yields have dropped as markets anticipate less growth and inflation. And if that’s truly where we’re headed then two to five more rate increases might be overkill. (And, OMG, Trump would be right.) Yup the bankers want rates higher than they are now, but the pace can slow. Besides, if the economy starts circling the drain, rates need to be elevated enough so they can drop. (Seriously.)

Second, Mr. Socks.

Remember in a recent post I told you about the only two kinds of stimulus that really matter – monetary and fiscal (neither involve latex). So while the central bank is taking its away, the feds are busy adding fiscal whoopee. In fact what we saw this week is more Trumpian than Trudeauesque. Less than a year after waging war on business owners, entrepreneurs and corps, the federal Libs have decided to let the deficit go to hell and spend $14 billion on corporate tax breaks.

This is pure stimulus. Manufacturers buying new equipment will be able to write it off their corporate taxes immediately – often wiping them out entirely. Other types of business can triple their existing write-offs in the first year that assets are purchased. Regulations will be overhauled and chopped. It’s a Canadian reaction to Washington’s lowering of the corporate tax rate and similar measures allowing companies to avoid tax altogether if they invest in growth. As a consequence, the federal deficit will swell to almost $19 billion and your toddler will be getting his first tat by the time the budget is balanced.

Combine this with a rebound in oil prices (if it comes) and you will be so happy that you overweighted Canadian equities when they were, like me, cheap and unloved. You did that, right?

           

Some of the acutely deplorable members of this blog’s steerage section routinely blame immigration for everything from expensive houses to clogged roads and a lack of  doctors. Figures. This is the age of nationalists, tribalism and intolerance. After all, when the US president calls ragtag economic refugees ‘invaders’ and sends in combat troops with the authority to use ‘lethal force’ it’s not surprising intolerance goes mainstream.

But let’s look at the opposite for a minute. Without immigrants Canada’s population would age and decrease over time. Just a statistical fact. Like climate change. Actually we have a great example of an advanced industrialized nation which has maintained closed borders and is now paying the price.

Just over 127 million people live in Japan where the population shrinks annually. It will be 97 million by 2050. Almost a third are over 65, and in huge numbers these folks are abandoning houses – just walking away from the burden. The overall impact on real estate values, as you might imagine, is depressing.

The Japanese word for ‘abandoned houses’ is akiya, and it’s getting wide usage. There are about nine million empty dwellings – 14% of the entire housing stock of the nation. By 2033 this is expected to swell to 20%. Lots of them are also free for the taking, or available dirt cheap to anyone willing to take over the costs of ownership. As a CNBC article pointed out this week, you can get a fixer-upper for about $4,000 US, or a really nice place for $177,000US.

But before you book a flight, remember how the Japanese feel about immigrants or refugees. Not generous. In fact last year almost 19,628 people sought asylum and 19,608 of them were rejected. Meanwhile Japan has been plagued by deflation, has the highest public debt ratio in the developed world and, as mentioned, more deaths than births.

But, hey, houses are free.

Be careful what you wish for.

211 comments ↓

#1 Flamen Lupanares on 11.22.18 at 4:23 pm

Wanted: Climate Deniers

Due to some unfortunate circumstances, our museum has lost the dino exponates. Our taxidermists, that the best of the breed and have graduated at the Lenin Museum, will do any of you climate denier bloggers. The brain (if you have it) will be returned to your family. If interested, get in contact with Mr. Turner. We will donate up to 5% of the ticket sales to his preferred canine charity. Reserve your place in history before you go extinct like a dino!

#2 mrnick on 11.22.18 at 4:26 pm

It’s good to be cheerful about the supposed fiscal stimulus, but the professionals strongly disagree.

For most businesses not in the target sector, instead of providing 100% write off for capital equipment like the US, all this does is allow accelerated deprecation of 30% instead of 10%.
Much hoopla about nothing. In Trumpland, the same capital equipment would be eligible for 100% write off in the year of purchase. No comparisons.

https://www.moodysgartner.com/how-to-not-respond-in-a-non-knee-jerk-fashion-to-us-tax-reform/

#3 A on 11.22.18 at 4:28 pm

What is quality of life in Japan though? Doesn’t seem to be too bad, is it because they have an economy based on producing actual goods and not real estate?
And are high levels of immigration not responsible for increasing traffic and hospital wait times in Toronto? The government does not build the infrastructure to support he amount of people that move to the region.

#4 For those about to flop... on 11.22.18 at 4:32 pm

CONFIRMED PINK SNOW.

Confirmation of this major hit on the Westside that I showed in real time has come through.

The details…

3329 Puget Drive, Vancouver.

Paid 3.26. November 2015

Sold 2.75 September 2018

Originally asking 3.86

Assessment 3.41

So the main news with one besides the big hit was that it was purchased in late 2015 before the big Spring Fling 2016 real estate party,but it couldn’t save them.

Over 20% loss after expenses and with opportunities lost they could easily have paid the membership to join the infamous Club 25.

So this one works out roughly to a 700k loss.

Their neighbors down the road at 3595 Puget lost over a million after expenses,so combine to the two attempted flips and they torched the best part of two million.

Textbook case of Chlamydomonas nivalis…

M44BC

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/3329-puget-drive

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAwMEwwNg==

#5 renter in Surrey on 11.22.18 at 4:34 pm

What’s wrong with declining population?

Earth can’t sustain unlimited number of people.

How many people do we want in Canada?
300 millions, 3 billions, 30 trillions?
Is there no limit?

Solving low birth rate by immigration is madness.
Having welfare state and uncontrolled immigration is even worse idea.
It’s like curing headache with guillotine.

#6 NotLegalAdvice on 11.22.18 at 4:44 pm

First?? Maybe not.

If we won’t increase interest rates again 5x next year….. will “up” go the real estate market??

#7 Gunnevera on 11.22.18 at 4:46 pm

Why do you never talk about record levels of debts by Governments, Consumers, Financial Institutions and Corporations Mr Turner? Are you becoming a Liberal or something?

#8 Guy in Calgary on 11.22.18 at 4:46 pm

Kind of seems like JT is just making it up as he goes.

#9 Red_falcon on 11.22.18 at 4:53 pm

Ya! Keep saving and investing!!!
And um, first!!!

#10 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.22.18 at 4:53 pm

I don’t think it’s immigration per se that the blog dogs have issues with.
Its the seemingly unfettered access that offshore money seems to have to Canadian real estate that is wrong.
Stats or not.
Doq Whistle politics or not.
Casino money laundering or not.
The corruption in BC is endless…..
Another year…. another raid on the BC Legislature.

https://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=6&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwjonYOg_ujeAhV9IDQIHT0xDk0QFjAFegQIARAB&url=https%3A%2F%2Ftheprovince.com%2Fnews%2Fbc-politics%2Fmike-smyth-wild-day-at-legislature-as-officials-are-suspended-marched-out-by-cops&usg=AOvVaw3N0Kw60uBdzDT3xeqfcbNC

#11 JacqueShellacque on 11.22.18 at 4:57 pm

I think use of Japan as an example should be done very hesitantly. 30 years ago they were going to take over the world because they emphasize education and work long hours (in fact I believe for one brief quarter in 1988 they were the world’s largest economy). Now they’re stagnant and headed down the crapper because they don’t allow immigration. Both were/are oversimplifications. One could just as easily also argue they are an example of how wealthy a nation can become when it builds industries behind tariff walls and keeps its currency artificially low. The truth is Japan is a very idiosyncratic place that can provide ‘lessons’, at least at a glance, for whatever you want to do (or don’t want to do). Certainly their lack of immigration makes their society less vibrant, but their refusal to bow to the altar of the diversity cult makes their society stable and predictable. We know very little about what makes a large group of people like a society function smoothly, and to propose throwing in millions of newcomers in the belief that it’ll just work out will, to future generations, seem more insane than walking away from old houses.

#12 Cowboy Calgarian on 11.22.18 at 5:00 pm

Isn’t it logical to think monetary and fiscal stimulus efforts (i.e. the Bank of Canada and the Feds) should be working together, not against each other? Or is there a reason they’re working in opposing directions?

#13 Clev on 11.22.18 at 5:01 pm

I thought immigration does nothing to house affordability *cough* Japan *cough*…
But on a serious note why is a population decrease a bad thing. Wont it just fluctuate up another time?

#14 Shawn Allen on 11.22.18 at 5:02 pm

Trump Can Get What He Wants…

But the Price can he high

Trump wanted lower oil and gasoline prices. It rather appears that he has gotten that from Saudi Arabia by forgiving the Crown Prince about allegedly ordering the murder of a journalist, inside the Saudi embassy in Turkey. This journalist lived in the U.S.A. and worked for the Washington Post. Normally it might have meant big sanctions on Saudi Arabia.

A certain percentage of Americans elected Trump.

Be careful what you wish for indeed.

#15 The Wet One on 11.22.18 at 5:05 pm

That’s a pretty good rebuke to those who hate “others.”

That said, why do we not have babies?

I suppose I should ask myself, given that I’m up for my first at age 45.

Hmmm…

Why did I not have kids? It wasn’t taxes. I generally wasn’t interested. What was the point? My wife made it a condition of getting married (at age 35) so now we’re having our bundle of joy and I (we) bought a house.

Hmmm…

Why did the Japanese stop reproducing?

Was there a point for them? I suspect not. Is there a point for us? I suspect not. Otherwise we would.

Japanese fertility is 1.42. Canada, 1.6. – Garth

#16 [email protected] on 11.22.18 at 5:06 pm

Any examples of fixer-upper for about $4,000 US ? Did you know some of their toilets have bottom spray just like at the car wash.

#17 SoggyShorts on 11.22.18 at 5:12 pm

@Stan Brooks: Here you go for all of your rent increase questions:

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2018/11/22/which-neighbourhoods-have-seen-large-spikes-in-rent-the-star-mapped-5-years-of-rental-data-in-15-canadian-municipalities.html

As you can see, most neighbourhoods in both Edmonton and Calgary have seen rent increases between 2012 and 2017 of around 10%, or less than official inflation.

Now you don’t need to believe me, you have another source.

[email protected] frank for the link yesterday

#18 RWMZ on 11.22.18 at 5:26 pm

“…routinely blame immigration for everything from expensive houses to clogged roads and a lack of doctors. Figures.”

Since the remainder of the blog entry effectively says: “what, do you want to be Japan?” you seem to be accepting this (obvious) causal connection. Also, no need to blame your comments section when the folks at CMHC and the REALTORS(TM), routinely proclaim that prices are steady and rising due to immigration (and they seem to be correct). Blame them. They convinced us of this lie somehow… this idea that a higher ratio of people to space results in a higher price for space.

There are two things to be said about Japan. First of all, at least when I went there, there’s no sign of people “paying the price” for anything. Apparently if some lines on a graph go down, people are “paying the price,” even if life is good. The economy being worse is only worse if life is worse and I have to work more for the same thing.

Second of all you seem to entertain absolutely no concept of differences in degree rather than kind on this matter. If it’s 200,000 people a year it’s “immigration.” If it’s 300,000 people a year, again it’s just “immigration.” If you want to increase it to 200K you’re “for immigration” and if you want to reduce it to 200K you’re “against immigration” even though you have the same target.

It’s not an all or nothing scenario.

#19 MF on 11.22.18 at 5:26 pm

Lol..just lol.

No one actually believed interest rates would rise significantly anyways. No surprises there. Everyone knew it was a bluff anyways.

Brexit, volatility, trade wars. Can anyone remember a time when there were zero potential or real threats on the horizon?

Psst: never.

All that talk about higher rates being baked in. All the talk that the FED had telegraphed their plan to us years in advance in preparation. All the talk about bank spreads and how banks want higher rates. How we will never see rates so low in our lifetimes. Our central bank blabbing about debt levels.

Must have been bovine excrement like we all knew.

How. Pathetic.

MF

#20 SimplyPut7 on 11.22.18 at 5:27 pm

Great post.

Hopefully speculators and flippers will remember Japan while holding on to their empty investment homes in the hopes prices rise back to March 2017 levels:

In Tokyo, the proportion of vacant homes stood at 11.1 percent in 2013 — among the lowest in the country, according to official statistics. But that number is expected to grow above 20 percent by 2033, said Fujitsu Research Institute.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/22/japan-free-homes-empty-houses-given-away-and-sold-cheap.html

I still have many empty homes in my area, there are parts of the GTA that look like a ghost town with all of the empty newly built houses and condos. How many rate hikes do we need to find out what’s really going on in YVR and GTA?

#21 Fish on 11.22.18 at 5:29 pm

Canada will scrap the nickel within 5 years, Desjardins predicts

Changes coming to denominations offered, but Canada won’t go cashless anytime soon
Pete Evans · CBC News · Posted: May 03, 2016 10:48 AM ET | Last Updated: May 3, 2016

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/desjardins-nickel-cash-1.3563961

#22 Courage and Poo on 11.22.18 at 5:31 pm

Garth, you are conflating immigration with illegal entry into the country. Shall we just cast aside those following the rules we all agreed upon?

#23 Frank The Tank on 11.22.18 at 5:33 pm

This is so weird as I was having this exact discussion regarding fertility and Japan with a coworker today.

He asserts immigrants are getting a free ride and are out to end Canadian culture as we know it; sigh.

I believe Japan will open itself up to immigration at some point in the mid-future. And for those who ask why, who’s going to pay for the wrinkles care and your balanced portfolios for that matter?

Further, I expect Western nations to compete for immigrants (especially skilled) in the future. Canada has done a good job of this.

#24 When Will They Raise Rates? on 11.22.18 at 5:35 pm

Ahhh an immigration post. This should get spicy… Getting the popcorn ready.

#25 Blacksheep on 11.22.18 at 5:37 pm

“Besides, if the economy starts circling the drain, rates need to be elevated enough so they can drop. (Seriously.)”
—————————————–
IMHO at this late stage in the cycle, this is the sole reason rates are still moving at all, but they waited too long. Things are already turning and the justification for higher rates is rapidly deflating as evidenced by Garth’s blog today.

What happens next in Canada? Justin throws dough at corps like a pimp, but that only goes so far. What about a feel good wealth effect for the working class.

When’s the next election?

The gov. realizes people are gonna start hurting, so it loosens up lending to kick start spending and that good old cash cow that is RE, all to try and keep this pig airborne. What else is there?

But it may not work like it did in spring 2009, as we are way farther down the debt rabbit hole….

#26 MF on 11.22.18 at 5:43 pm

#6 NotLegalAdvice on 11.22.18 at 4:44 pm
First?? Maybe not.

If we won’t increase interest rates again 5x next year….. will “up” go the real estate market??

-Yes.

Also, it never went “down” in the first place. Okay fine maybe from 1.4 mil to 1.3 mil.

#11 JacqueShellacque on 11.22.18 at 4:57 pm

“but their refusal to bow to the altar of the diversity cult makes their society stable and predictable. We know very little about what makes a large group of people like a society function smoothly, and to propose throwing in millions of newcomers in the belief that it’ll just work out will, to future generations, seem more insane than walking away from old houses.”

Umm over the past few decades millions of newcomers have already called Canada home…and we function well.

MF

#27 AGuyInVancouver on 11.22.18 at 5:46 pm

Well, if you believe in man-made climate change Garth, the obvious solution is less mankind to make it. Maybe we need more countries to be like Japan. AI will help make this possible.

#28 Russ on 11.22.18 at 5:46 pm

Flamen Lupanares on 11.22.18 at 4:23 pm

Wanted: Climate Deniers

Due to some unfortunate circumstances, our museum has lost the dino exponates. Our taxidermists, that the best of the breed and have graduated at the Lenin Museum, will do any of you climate denier bloggers.
=============

Hi Flamo,

What is a climate denier? Are there really people out there who don’t believe in climate?

Anyhow, maybe check over at the Flat Earth Society, I think you have the wrong blog here.

Cheers, R

#29 Smith X on 11.22.18 at 5:50 pm

The bond market generally goes up when the stock market goes down. These are transient factors. If the stock market rebounds then the bond market selloff will resume and interest rates will increase.

#30 Not So New guy on 11.22.18 at 5:50 pm

“The Japanese word for ‘abandoned houses’ is akiya”

I think in Sweden it’s called Ikea

#31 Not So New guy on 11.22.18 at 5:57 pm

@16

“Did you know some of their toilets have bottom spray just like at the car wash.”

=================================

That’s good because I know a lot of people who could use an undercoat

#32 Penny Henny on 11.22.18 at 6:02 pm

DELETED

#33 young & foolish on 11.22.18 at 6:06 pm

It’s about time Mr. Market smiles on the TSX! Plus you get the dividend tax credit to boot :)

#34 Andrew on 11.22.18 at 6:06 pm

Future generations will look back at our current connection between money and state the same way we look at the connection between church and state. Thankful that a separation exists.

As we can see with current events and from examples of the past, pretending like central banks are independent is naive.

https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/jep.20.4.177

Bitcoin will restore sound money in the digital age. No more driving a car looking through the rear view mirror.

#35 Entrepreneur on 11.22.18 at 6:08 pm

Having a declining population is a problem but should not be replaced with “welfare state and uncontrolled immigration” #5 renter in Surrey. I agree! People in power should be looking at the real problem.

“Japan’s economy based on actual goods and not real estate” #3 A. To me that is a good thing. Think about it “on actual goods.” So does that mean like actual goods that they make and trade right in their own community? OMG, the real world!

If so, sounds to me that is what we should be doing. We have to fall down to build up for a healthy economy. Look at us now, pretending.

We have never had ‘uncontrolled immigration.’ – Garth

#36 Keyboard Smasher on 11.22.18 at 6:10 pm

I’ve been to Japan last year. It’s a paradise on Earth in terms of social order and harmony.

It’s safe to walk the streets at night. The transit system does not smell of urine and there are no concrete barriers needed to protect pedestrians from terrorism by truck.

De-population and reducing consumption are things that Canadians should strive for and regulate towards.

Why would I care about expanding the dreary, soul-less suburbs around the GTA and populating them with container-loads of fresh immigrants? I’m not a developer, I don’t gain anything from it.

#37 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 11.22.18 at 6:12 pm

DELETED

#38 Ian on 11.22.18 at 6:17 pm

The stock market is now clearly in a bear, and many stocks underneath the FANG stocks have been in a bear since the problems started in the spring.

I think if things continue to be bad the Fed doesn’t raise in Dec, and then it’s good night Charlie for the USD.

And the US economy is already falling precipitously, so if they do raise in Dec the economic decline will accelerate.

And bonds will not be a safe haven due to the debt levels.

You don’t actually know what a bear market is, do you? – Garth

#39 Sham the Sham on 11.22.18 at 6:19 pm

DELETED

#40 Penny Henny on 11.22.18 at 6:21 pm

DELETED

#41 Lost...but not leased on 11.22.18 at 6:30 pm

Japan ?

We like sushi….own (2) NISSAN Rogues…and like Godzilla movies.

We’re in !

#42 Newcomer on 11.22.18 at 6:32 pm

I have lived in Japan for big chunks of my life and visit often. The pros of falling population in Japan are that it is cheap. Houses are cheap, things like clothing are cheap, and you can find good food at low prices, especially in sinking neighborhoods. The cons are that it’s depressing. People sit around staring at the walls. Boarded up shops and houses are an eyesore and bring a sense of despair. If you like vitality, it’s a turnoff.

It’s also the future. We have already passed global peak child. Falling death rates mean that the global population will continue to grow for another twenty years or so. But the days of economic growth based on demographic growth are numbered. Canada has been keeping its growth rate steady at about 1% per year by increasing immigration. The longer we are able to do that, the better. As poor nations become richer and population pressure decreases, the future of cold, mostly empty countries like Canada and Russia doesn’t look that great.

#43 Proud Dreg on 11.22.18 at 6:33 pm

Flamen Lupanares on 11.22.18 at 4:23 pm
Wanted: Climate Deniers

Due to some unfortunate circumstances, our museum has lost the dino exponates. Our taxidermists, that the best of the breed and have graduated at the Lenin Museum, will do any of you climate denier bloggers. The brain (if you have it) will be returned to your family. If interested, get in contact with Mr. Turner. We will donate up to 5% of the ticket sales to his preferred canine charity. Reserve your place in history before you go extinct like a dino!

>>>>

Well gee would you look at that. 2/3s of the world is below ten degrees C. 75% of the world is below 15 C. If 10 degrees is your definition of global warming, I have a bridge to sell you. Facts Trump opinion.

http://www.intellicast.com/Global/Temperature/Current.aspx

#44 Shawn Allen on 11.22.18 at 6:35 pm

Scrape the Nickle:

#21 Fish on 11.22.18 at 5:29 pm

Canada will scrap the nickel within 5 years, Desjardins predicts

**************************************
That should be just in time to scrap all forms of coins and paper money. The dollar bill is long dead. But the dollar lives on!

Canada has had a mostly electronic currency for quite a while now. It is headed to 100% electronic dollars.

#45 Frustrated Kiwi on 11.22.18 at 6:36 pm

Yes, (controlled) immigration is very good for the economy etc., but (very) long term we’ll need to figure out how to do without it. World fertility rate is at 2.5 per woman and is projected to drop below replacement rate before the end of the century. Sooner or later we’ll have to figure out how to manage this and given Japan’s population density, it seems like maybe it’s best they figure it out sooner rather than later. Some interesting challenges ahead.

#46 Phylis on 11.22.18 at 6:38 pm

I had a-kia, it abandoned me.

#47 Proud Dreg on 11.22.18 at 6:39 pm

DELETED

#48 Rents are going up on 11.22.18 at 6:41 pm

Have you ever been to Japan? Low crime, incredibly clean, amazing infrastructure. They must be doing something right?

#49 the ryguy on 11.22.18 at 6:43 pm

Wonder what the record for deleted comments in one post is?

As a “deplorable” Id just like to say, it’s hard to have a reasonable conversation with someone on the other side when as soon as you open your mouth you instantly get slammed with racist, xenophobe, toxic masculinity etc.

There are legitimate cultural issues that should be at least considered, if you can’t even acknowledge (and maybe even discuss) those then its you who are close minded.

Then don’t say racist, xenophobic things. Simple. – Garth

#50 DON on 11.22.18 at 6:44 pm

#6 NotLegalAdvice on 11.22.18 at 4:44 pm

First?? Maybe not.

If we won’t increase interest rates again 5x next year….. will “up” go the real estate market??
*****************

The fact that we need a pause or decline in interest rate hikes is NOT good at this point in time as Garth has indicated.

“Yup the bankers want rates higher than they are now, but the pace can slow. Besides, if the economy starts circling the drain, rates need to be elevated enough so they can drop. (Seriously.)”

Lots of headwinds currently in play that can add momentum to the housing downturn. Affordability is a huge blocker at the moment. And then there is the fear of an earlier than expected Recession as trade wars continue. Trump is stubborn and is more likely to go down with the ship than compromise.

But I am open to all the positives if anything can list them or at least one. Reality bites in this case.

#51 Ronaldo on 11.22.18 at 6:48 pm

Just over 127 million people live in Japan where the population shrinks annually. It will be 97 million by 2050. Almost a third are over 65, and in huge numbers these folks are abandoning houses – just walking away from the burden. The overall impact on real estate values, as you might imagine, is depressing.
——————————————————————
Japan is .4 of the size of British Columbia and a population that is 26 times that of BC. A lot of people in a small area. And we worry about a few thousand coming to our country each year.

#52 Millennial Realist on 11.22.18 at 6:55 pm

Canada’s population is already much too high based on our world-leading energy consumption and climate change contributions. The average Canadian is a serious world-killer. No sign of that changing soon.

Overall, there are still just way too many people on this planet.

In Canada and other western countries, immigration has also been a convenient way to drive down demands of the working class by having them compete with temporary workers and newcomers who will settle for just about everything.

I am not against immigration in general. But the world needs fewer energy-snorfling Canadians. And our elites have used immigration as a tool to impoverish ordinary working-class Canadians, and that must be addressed before we open our doors wider.

#53 Changeemall on 11.22.18 at 6:56 pm

In this article Garth displays his social justice side. Calling people intolerant because they don’t want to be replaced by foreigners. After 50 years social engineering beating Western men and women with propaganda and toxic social ideologies that discourage breeding… All of a sudden, we need to replace you guys cause we can’t let the population decline… This entire economic Ponzi scheme works on an ever increasing population. Foreigers also lower wages, reduce social cohesion among many other things and nobody loves that more than the state and the big business interests.

Good on you Garth for proudly telling us how tolerant and ready you are to be replaced. Poor Japan, a tiny island, already over populated with declining population, get to keep it all for themselves and what thier ancestors built with blood and sweat.

You think this blog discourages breeding? – Garth

#54 When Will They Raise Rates? on 11.22.18 at 7:00 pm

#25 Blacksheep on 11.22.18 at 5:37 pm

“Besides, if the economy starts circling the drain, rates need to be elevated enough so they can drop. (Seriously.)”
—————————————–
IMHO at this late stage in the cycle, this is the sole reason rates are still moving at all, but they waited too long. Things are already turning and the justification for higher rates is rapidly deflating as evidenced by Garth’s blog today.

What happens next in Canada? Justin throws dough at corps like a pimp, but that only goes so far. What about a feel good wealth effect for the working class.

When’s the next election?

The gov. realizes people are gonna start hurting, so it loosens up lending to kick start spending and that good old cash cow that is RE, all to try and keep this pig airborne. What else is there?

But it may not work like it did in spring 2009, as we are way farther down the debt rabbit hole….

You will know they are truly desperate when they bring in zero down, 40Y amortizations, no proof of income for self employed and cash back for first time home-buyers!

Bad credit, no credit, no problem! Instant approval! And they’ll buy your gold jewlery too! Oh yeah!

#55 kommykim on 11.22.18 at 7:01 pm

RE: #7 Gunnevera on 11.22.18 at 4:46 pm
Why do you never talk about record levels of debts by Governments, Consumers, Financial Institutions and Corporations Mr Turner? Are you becoming a Liberal or something?

=====================

You must be really new here or have a really terrible memory.

#56 For those about to flop... on 11.22.18 at 7:03 pm

Q&A.

“You mentioned there are some honest Realestate agents out there, would you consider sharing that information?”

Someone was nice enough to leave me a nice message just now and part of it contained this question.

I did mention this in a comment the other day because unfortunately with thousands of realtors operating at different levels of professionalism it is a shame that a lot of times they all get tarred with the same brush.

I see them and converse with them at work on the Westside and some of them make me feel uncomfortable with their silver tongues so the three I would pick are ones that showed some transparency in their dealings without being told to.

In no particular order.

1) Norm Flockhart.

http://normflockhart.com

Norm has been selling houses since the 80’s mainly in East Van and Burnaby.

I have watched him sell house after house in my area the last few years.

I have never introduced myself because I did not want to blow my cover but he is always well presented and acts professionally and the main reason I am recommending him is because for a fair while now as soon as a sale was complete he would put the sale number up on his website when he did not have to.

I used to use his sales in some of my Recent sales reports before more information became available.

2)David Richardson,mainly sells house on the Westside of Vancouver.

http://thecolourofrealestate.com

Similar story to Norm,puts the sale price up straight away, no hiding of information.

Never met him but seems very successful and seems to get the job done the bulk of the time.

3)Adam Major.

http://holywell.ourubertor.com

Adam seems to do most of his dealings on the Sunshine Coast but I’m sure he would be happy to help out in any way.

He actually would know who you were talking about if you mentioned “Flop”.

If he couldn’t help you out I’m sure he could refer you to someone.

Adam has just launched a game changing website called Zealty.

http://zealty.ca

It has all the updated information that you need to follow the current state of the market or just one sale.

I use it to help give my reports,it’s not perfect but it is a very useful tool.

Adam was gracious enough to help me out on multiple occasions when I asked for realtor assistance,giving my followers information that only people with access to the Mls had.

I could tell he always wanted to help more but I felt he didn’t want to compromise himself.

After the court decision involving the Toronto real estate board he felt to time was right to have more of this information online and he wrote me detailing his reasons and I wished him well.

Like I said I could list some realtors that I have met and dealt with personally but the old saying about how someone acts when no one is watching, I feel applies in this case.

All three men went above and beyond when they did not have to, and that shows some honesty and integrity.

Do your own research but I feel you could do a lot worse than these three experienced and transparent individuals.

I hope this helps…

M44BC

#57 T on 11.22.18 at 7:06 pm

It’s a rate bear trap. It’s so easy to see, and obviously many are falling for it. I’m looking at you, MF.

#58 jim on 11.22.18 at 7:08 pm

“After all, when the US president calls ragtag economic refugees ‘invaders’ and sends in combat troops with the authority to use ‘lethal force’ it’s not surprising intolerance goes mainstream.”

**************************************

I’ll bet that the folks waiting in line, who want to immigrate legally have something to say about that…
The U.S. accepts over a million of them yearly…hardly intolerance….

According to the 2016 Yearbook of Immigration Statistics, the United States admitted 1.18 million legal immigrants in 2016.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_to_the_United_States

#59 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.22.18 at 7:12 pm

My goodness!
Smoking Man hasnt even shown up yet and we have a tsunami of DELETED.

#60 Dave on 11.22.18 at 7:17 pm

yeah without immigrants it would cost $200k for a houuse in Vancouver or TO

Idiot comment of the night. And that’s saying something. – Garth

#61 Buying RE Again on 11.22.18 at 7:18 pm

Rates will stay very low for a very long time. Anyone that thinks they can actually go up significantly is delusional. If they did, everything would blow up. Simple as that.

#62 Give me RE, on 11.22.18 at 7:23 pm

“As a consequence, the federal deficit will swell to almost $19 billion and your toddler will be getting his first tat by the time the budget is balanced.” – Garth

——————————————————–

It would be political suicide for any government to really balance the budget. Maybe the debt will continue to grow until we have a global financial crash. Who knows what our leaders have in mind.

#63 J. Canuck on 11.22.18 at 7:23 pm

#1 Flamen Lupanares
Climate Denier
********************
I don’t like the term “climate denier”. I prefer to be called “rational and sensible”.

#64 Arun on 11.22.18 at 7:24 pm

about aging population and the need of more young people to support; is it not a Ponzi scheme…hear this argument from lots of so called economists; i cant get my head around it…

#65 Immigration Truth on 11.22.18 at 7:25 pm

The reason our population will shrink without immigration, is Gen Y (and to some extent earlier, Gen X) can’t afford to have children. They can’t even afford to move out of Mom and Dad’s basement by the time they are 30. Why? Because mass immigration into T.O. and Van has 1) suppressed wages 2) driven real estate prices out of range. It’s the excessive immigration into these two regions, that’s the root of the issue of why we can’t keep our population stable naturally.

#66 When Will They Raise Rates? on 11.22.18 at 7:34 pm

DELETED

#67 eightlock90 on 11.22.18 at 7:38 pm

I’m having a good laugh @ this post and the people in here in thinking the Fed is going to stop hiking because there is a small stock market sell off.

It took the NASDAQ going down 75% in 2000 and the SP500 dropping 50% in 2008 to get them to stop hiking.

I don’t understand these people thinking their stock and real estate holdings are going to return 15% yoy until the end of time. The Fed will keep hiking and people who got reckless borrowing money will go bankrupt. Such is the nature of capitalism. Better luck next time.

#68 JuliaS on 11.22.18 at 7:39 pm

Japan went to war because they were highly industrialized, but energy deprived. No oil meant going from industrial dominance to irrelevance. Well, they lost and had to earn oil instead of taking it. However, the need for cheap energy didn’t diminish. In fact, if you’ve ever been to Japan, you’d know how much effort goes into conservation of every natural resource. Remember Fukushima? In case you wonder why a country would build a nuclear reactor in a seismically active zone close to the shore, the answer is: “The lost the war, didn’t they? You think they’re doing this because of abundance of oil gas and coal?”

As for declining birth rates – when your’e energy deprived it’s a blessing. It means fewer moths to feed and less need to build “earthquake-ready” reactors.

Aging population wouldn’t be a problem either, along with deflation, if their government didn’t attempt to fix the bubble economy the same way ours did back in 2008. Ours (and the US counterpart) are as much fixed as the Japanese one, only we’re decades behind in terms of realizing long-terms implication of interest rate meddling.

#69 Price reduction Calgary on 11.22.18 at 7:40 pm

Originally $4,200,000 October 27/2018-new listing. Drop over $300,000 in less than one month. Was way over priced then and still WAY over priced now. Nice home, nice neighbourhood. Notice all the ‘8’s.

4 bed Detached at 4328 Coronation Drive Southwest, Calgary for $3,888,000 https://www.zolo.ca/calgary-real-estate/4328-coronation-drive-southwest

#70 akashic record on 11.22.18 at 7:40 pm

Here is the list of the countries with the highest population:

https://www.internetworldstats.com/stats8.htm

Do these countries create economy and society that they serve as the most sought after immigration destinations?

Which one would you rather live than in Canada or in Japan?

If population growth increase through immigration creates indisputable economic growth and prosperity, why don’t countries just multiply their population?

Here is the list of countries with the highest population growth.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/264687/countries-with-the-highest-population-growth-rate/

Which one would you rather live for catching the benefits of the supposed population growth triggered economic growth – or other reasons?

#71 Lawnboy on 11.22.18 at 7:42 pm

@24 WWTRR

CANADIAN: ” A deported person with seniority ”

Sgt. Renfrew

#72 Mr. Spellcheck on 11.22.18 at 7:46 pm

Who is Mr. Socks? Lol

#73 baloney Sandwitch on 11.22.18 at 7:47 pm

https://guff.com/15-drastic-effects-of-population-decline

#74 Barb on 11.22.18 at 7:49 pm

Canada’s debt approaching three-quarters of a Trillion dollars.

The Liberals scare the hell out of me.

#75 Rick on 11.22.18 at 7:58 pm

Deleted, deleted, deleted…
Hmmm…lots of deleting today.

#76 Travelling in Japan on 11.22.18 at 7:59 pm

I have been travelling in Japan since the start of November. This is my second trip. The cities are vibrant, clean, safe, and there are so many options for good food. The quality of customer service here is very high. And yes, there are a lot of old Japanese most of them appearing to be in good shape and very active. On a Tuesday morning, museums are packed with both oldsters and school kids. The Japanese love museums.

Strictly a surface impression but I believe that seniors here are more self sufficient for longer and there appears to be more family support. Of course there are homeless and there are food banks but nowhere near the level that we see in Canada. The population decline is a ticking time bomb and the situation will only get worse even if the government allows increased migration.

In a sense, this is happening now on a small scale as there are a lot of foreign workers including people from China, Malaysia, the Philippines, and the rest of South East Asia. And of course there are a lot of Europeans, Americans, Australians, and Canadians youngsters here working as English teachers or, to a lesser extent, as software developers. A developer with skills in developing mobile apps can be paid as much as the CIO in some companies, the situation is that desperate. What was true when I was a kid is still true today – stay in school kids…

#77 Blacksheep on 11.22.18 at 7:59 pm

Shawn #14,

“Trump wanted lower oil and gasoline prices. It rather appears that he has gotten that from Saudi Arabia by forgiving the Crown Prince about allegedly ordering the murder of a journalist, inside the Saudi embassy in Turkey. This journalist lived in the U.S.A. and worked for the Washington Post. Normally it might have meant big sanctions on Saudi Arabia.”
———————————-
I’m all for the freedom of the press, but this dude displayed, extremely poor judgment, (Darwinism?) strolling on in to sovereign territory, that is a Saudi Arabian embassy.

He was said to be a big deal in international journalistic circles, so clearly knowledgeable on how the world and the monarchy / dictator ship based country he was highly critical of, operated.

I’m guessing he thought he was untouchable, do to his American residence and employment, but his thinking unfortunately was quite flawed.

So where’s the outrage based action?

When your talking 1/2 a Trillion $’s in US trade, (and many, many jobs) a lot can be ‘over looked’. Speaking of overlooking, I have not yet heard our own illustrious leader (the one with extensive school teacher experience) cancel our military vehicle sales to the tune of 15 Billion with the Saudi’s yet. Specially considering all the chirping Chrystia Freeland did.

Moral of the story: Never overestimate your worth….

#78 Can-mex on 11.22.18 at 8:07 pm

@ cowboy calgarian
Logic and politics are incompatible. Politicians do what will benefit their interests. Logic might suggest a different approach. However, you and I elected the politicians, so we must suck it up until the next election. Then we might get a new group of politicians, and a different set of interests for them to defend. Democracy at work, but tell me, what is the alternative?

#79 akashic record on 11.22.18 at 8:13 pm

Then don’t say racist, xenophobic things. Simple. – Garth

Who decides what are “the racist, xenophobic things”?
Where do these people get their license?

The ones who own blogs. Now shut up. – Garth

#80 yvr_lurker on 11.22.18 at 8:14 pm

Immigrants have contributed greatly to Canada and the only issue is at what the immigration level should be. If most end up in Toronto and Vancouver it puts a strain on local resources if done too quickly. Where I object strongly is the previous bone-headed investor (cash loan to the Gov’t for permenant residency). Many in this group are the ones who work overseas, claim 20K per taxable revenue (no tax payable to Canada) and skew the real-estate landscape leaving places vacant etc… We don’t need these programs.

#81 arfmoocat on 11.22.18 at 8:21 pm

Bitcoin should see 3’s tonight or tomorrow

#82 Shawn Allen on 11.22.18 at 8:23 pm

Who Can Deny even the RISK of Human-caused Climate Change?

It might be fair game to be skeptical about human-caused climate change.

But can anyone logically deny that there is even a risk that it is happening?

Also Re-branding needed pronto.

Forget Climate Change

It should be called Climate Change Risk

or Climate Disruption Risk.

Who can be against mitigating what MIGHT be a serious risk?

Clearly the marketing guy was not in the room when the scientists said let’s warn people about “Anthropologically-caused Climate Change” Anthro who?

#83 mogulrider on 11.22.18 at 8:23 pm

#1 Flamen Lupanares

I’m a climate denier you sanctimonious infant.
I’m in the forest inductry. I can show you hemlock tree rings which show drought, cold, extreme cold in the last 150 years.
Here’s clue for you –
Look up at the yellow thing in the sky Mr Dino.

It’s decreasing the fastest in 150 years….
You will be crying like blog post this decade for carbon.
People like you make the elites proud.
Look around the room when you can’t find the sucker you are it.

#84 sharon in salmon arm on 11.22.18 at 8:24 pm

That’s right Garth…let all the sick, infirm,crims etc breach the borders and have the tax payer pay for them. Don’t see you plutocrats stepping up to offer a warm bed for these folks. No, it’s always the poor sucker tax payer, many who don’t have a home or 3 square meals have to pay for these folks..

I guess I should expect some nasty comment from you about helping the poor, disenfranchised…the misunderstood terrorists and criminals..

You sound more like Bernie Sanders every day..

You are right Sir, this blog hasn’t changed the past few years but you sure have…Sleep well in your safe bed..

Note to readers: this post was not deleted to give you a taste of the ones that are. God help us. – Garth

#85 mogulrider on 11.22.18 at 8:25 pm

#1
Hey Climate puppet
Ask a geologist to show what history says.
None of you ever ask the real experts…

Of course you wouldn’t
The sophistry would fall apart
It’s called CYCLES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

#86 T on 11.22.18 at 8:29 pm

#61 Buying RE Again on 11.22.18 at 7:18 pm
Rates will stay very low for a very long time. Anyone that thinks they can actually go up significantly is delusional. If they did, everything would blow up. Simple as that.

—-

The trap has been set. Sign up for all that debt you have ever wanted.

#87 sideshow on 11.22.18 at 8:29 pm

Virtual Reality Bank

“You’re more indebted than you think!” ™

#88 SoggyShorts on 11.22.18 at 8:30 pm

#43 Proud Dreg on 11.22.18 at 6:33 pm
Trolling, right? Not actually that retarded?
“It’s cold today, so climate change is fake”

https://medium.com/matt-bors/cold-weather-and-global-warming-both-real-things-40052cbdb4d2

#89 Sword on 11.22.18 at 8:31 pm

The S – Word Means Sword because its on you tube now from yesterday afternoon in Mississauga. The sun was out, and a group of hooded men stopped beside a jewelry store. They were smashing the windows with hammers to steal some goods, and were met by the inside employees swinging swords. The crooks got back in their car and took off, and it appeared some old lady walking by pulled out a gun to take a shot at them driving away. Why do I always miss the excitement of just another normal day in Hollywood.

#90 Bk on 11.22.18 at 8:32 pm

Hey… At least the Japanese are happy.

If things didn’t get so out of control in Canada, our people would be having more children.

#91 jess on 11.22.18 at 8:40 pm

maybe they could rescue some of these children to repopulate

An unprecedented drought in Afghanistan has led to families selling their children just to be able to feed their households.
CNN has spoken to multiple families around the western city of Herat who have been forced from their homes because of a record dry spell that, according to the United Nations, has forced more people from their homes in 2018 than the record violence afflicting the country.
The UN estimates that over 275,000 people have been displaced by the drought, 84,000 of them in the city itself, and 182,000 in the region of Badghis.
Four years of failed rains have savaged the agriculture of the region, and even caused the opium crop to fall by a third this year, despite record output in 2017. The extreme weather conditions are causing concerns that global climate change is having a severe impact on the world’s most fragile country, where decades of war have ground the economy and society to dust.

#92 Where's The Money Greedeau? on 11.22.18 at 8:45 pm

I thought that zolo was publishing sold prices on its site.
I noticed that the house I was commenting on in Maple Ridge, 21948 Acadia Street, Maple Ridge House for sale (MLS® R2258275), was sold on Nov. 15th but you have to log in to zolo to get the sold price.
I don’t give out my info as the banks have given away enough to the US, read #52 Where’s The Money Greedeau? on 11.19.18 at 7:36 pm (https://craft.co/mx-technologies) and now to StatsCan.
Does BC/Canada not have to publish sold info, I thought that ship of them denying the info had sailed?

#93 arfmoocat on 11.22.18 at 8:47 pm

Average Joe cares more about gas prices then stock market prices

#94 For those about to flop... on 11.22.18 at 8:52 pm

#91 Where’s The Money Greedeau? on 11.22.18 at 8:45 pm
I thought that zolo was publishing sold prices on its site.
I noticed that the house I was commenting on in Maple Ridge, 21948 Acadia Street, Maple Ridge House for sale (MLS® R2258275), was sold on Nov. 15th but you have to log in to zolo to get the sold price.

Hey Greedy.

It sold for 620k on November 8th

Asking 629k

If you want more information go to Zealty and type in the address.

Peace,Flop…

M44BC

#95 Ian on 11.22.18 at 8:55 pm

Of course I know what a bear is. It’s not when the main indexes are down 20% like you think. It’s when the long term monthly PMO on Stockcharts turns down which it has, and the only thing supporting the indices are a handful of massively overvalued garbage. Look at all the decay underneath. I’ve been shorting for months now. Even Netflix is down 20%. Wake up.

#96 Wrk.dover on 11.22.18 at 8:55 pm

What a great night to pack it in early Garth.

Good Night…

#97 acdel on 11.22.18 at 8:56 pm

If multiculturalism works then why are there so many sections of cities strictly against fitting into Canadian culture and have created there own little country?

Before you dish me, I have friends from different cultures that totally get what I am saying but are powerless to act (for now) due to family pressures. It works both ways and we get it.

I think Japan understands this. They have thousands of years of experience in this.

People like to be around people like them. You are a good example. – Garth

#98 common sense on 11.22.18 at 8:58 pm

Gee a slowdown in rate hikes and more stimulus BECAUSE THERE IS HARDLY ANY GROWTH WITHOUT MORE AND MORE AND MORE DEBT….It’s demographics 101.

Stealth inflation and stagnant wages…..

Most are going backwards…..thank the FED for legalized theft.

#99 D. Suzuki on 11.22.18 at 9:08 pm

#43 Proud Dreg

“Well gee would you look at that. 2/3s of the world is below ten degrees C. 75% of the world is below 15 C. If 10 degrees is your definition of global warming, I have a bridge to sell you.”

Would that bridge be in Brooklyn?

#100 Ian on 11.22.18 at 9:16 pm

OK let’s use your 20% definition:

% down from their peak earlier this year:

Apple 24.3%
Netflix 38.1%
Facebook 38.4%
Google 18.5%

And you don’t think this is a bear market?

And that’s only the big names. I’ve been shorting all kinds of stuff for months that has been decaying since much earlier in the year like ABMD, JLL, and LVS.

As I’ve been saying for months…stocks AND bonds will get murdered, so the balanced strategy is complete twaddle. Bonds will NOT be a safe haven, their yields should be WAY higher.

#101 Kilt on 11.22.18 at 9:16 pm

House prices are cheap in Japan? Not sure where you get you info from but prices are only in the country where there are no jobs and nobody wants to live. Houses are also treated like a depreciating asset.
It will happen here as well. And you will also find that some people will take advantage of it. Some younger people in Japan are leaving the city and moving out to the country to take up farming. Who knows, it might catch on.
I’ve looked at buying property there, and it is not as cheap as you suggest. Especially when you factor in the exchange rates.

Kilt.

#102 acdel on 11.22.18 at 9:19 pm

DELETED

#103 Andrewt on 11.22.18 at 9:28 pm

#84 mogulrider on 11.22.18 at 8:25 pm
#1
Hey Climate puppet
Ask a geologist to show what history says.
None of you ever ask the real experts…

Of course you wouldn’t
The sophistry would fall apart
It’s called CYCLES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
—-
Actually it’s called cause and effect. And basic physics.
You have no idea what you’re talking about.

#104 ronh on 11.22.18 at 9:30 pm

your toddler will be getting his first tat by the time the budget is balanced.

your toddler’s kid will be getting his first tat by the time the budget is balanced. Fixed it for ya.

#105 Changeemall on 11.22.18 at 9:35 pm

“In this article, Garth displays his social justice side. Calling people intolerant because they don’t want to be replaced by foreigners. After 50 years social engineering beating Western men and women with propaganda and toxic social ideologies that discourage breeding… All of a sudden, we need to replace you guys cause we can’t let the population decline… This entire economic Ponzi scheme works on an ever increasing population. Foreigners also lower wages, reduce social cohesion among many other things and nobody loves that more than the state and the big business interests.

Good on you Garth for proudly telling us how tolerant and ready you are to be replaced. Poor Japan, a tiny island, already over populated with declining population, get to keep it all for themselves and what their ancestors built with blood and sweat.

You think this blog discourages breeding? – Garth”

Is that all you got from my comment?

No, your blog doesn’t discourage breeding. I’m curious, what is your stand on current immigration levels into Canada? What are your thoughts on the 350k targets by our wonderful government? Not even accounting for mass refugees and foreign temp workers.

Is yearly job creation in this country keeping up with hordes of immigration?

Who really benefits from an accelerated demographic replacement of Canada?

Also, you are a fairly intelligent and accomplished individual. Yet actually believe that the caravan of people that somehow covered the distance of what usually takes over half a year by foot, in weeks, just in time for midterm elections, with the intention of crossing the border illegally and breaking the law, a group of “economic refugees”… It’s really amazing.

I have learned over the years that when you wrestle with a pig you both get dirty, and the swine loves it. So wallow on. – Garth

#106 stage1dave on 11.22.18 at 9:36 pm

Seems strange, but to a person my age the only time I’m actually conscious of immigration is when I notice that there isn’t too many young caucasian workers at the local Tim Hortons!

Interestingly, the neighbour across the street has a son that works there part time (he’s Chinese) and HIS GRANDPARENTS were born here…guess if the skin colour is darker, they must be immigrants, huh?

Kind of a dangerous road to go down…what I do notice is that there’s lotsa folks around here who don’t want a damned thing to change…ever. People who look different than you do, in your locale, are a visible sign of change, and a convenient target when jobs start drying up or you can’t afford a place to live…or your kids can’t.

I have to admit to being annoyed on a few occasions when repeating my order for the third time because ESL, but honestly I haven’t made much of an effort to learn Farsi or Mandarin…my French still sux, fer chrissakes! Hats off to people who move here for trying to learn this convoluted linguistic medium. Plus, I’m smart enuff to know this is just a temporary kneejerk reaction on my part.

(dammit! I’ve been inconvenienced! Now there’s something worth getting upset about…)

Btw, I doubt very much that I’d want to move “somewhere else” if it meant working in a fast food franchise eking out minimum wage. I was born here, and it still has never occurred to me…go figure.

Anyway, re: the population density thingie; I did a quick google search on Ontario vs. India. India is slightly more than 3 times as large in land area with almost 1.4 BILLION souls, Ontario contains a bit over 14 MILLION. We have great deal of unused RE in this country…and a very long ways to go before we run outta land…or fill it up with, well; us…

Despite our somewhat inhospitable living conditions during winter (or sometimes in the summer…haha) in much of the northern areas, we still have a lot of room.

It sounds almost Orwellian, but I think what’s needed is perhaps a “sensible” immigration policy to place immigrants in areas where their skills and enthusiasm (yup, enthusiasm…a somewhat un-Canadian trait; unless we’re playing hockey, or bitching about who’s to blame for something) are needed and wanted.

Now if we had some sort of sensible macro-economic policy that, for instance, involved support for inventing/manufacturing/selling things and making stuff instead of just dumping raw resources very cheaply onto the market; or inflating (or re-inflating) one bubble after another, or producing lots of numbers on a computer to show how great our FIRE sector has done; the immigration part of the equation would be a lot easier to figure out…and then explain or rationalize.

#107 IHCTD9 on 11.22.18 at 9:38 pm

#65 Immigration Truth on 11.22.18 at 7:25 pm
The reason our population will shrink without immigration, is Gen Y (and to some extent earlier, Gen X) can’t afford to have children. They can’t even afford to move out of Mom and Dad’s basement by the time they are 30. Why? Because mass immigration into T.O. and Van has 1) suppressed wages 2) driven real estate prices out of range. It’s the excessive immigration into these two regions, that’s the root of the issue of why we can’t keep our population stable naturally.
—————

Seems like a handy explaination, but we’ve been below replacement since the 70’s, and so has Japan. Plus, there are piles of wealthy enough folks in North America with no kids.

Money is not the issue, I think it’s Western Culture overall. Individualism, feminism, birth control, education, security, technology, pursuit of wealth and an ever higher standard of living. Kids put a dampener on a lot of those things.

In the end, it may turn out that humans need a good reason to have kids, or need to be pushed into it through cultural pressures (the same way adult males need to be pushed into marriage IMHO). Current culture in the West puts child rearing on the back burner behind education, work, achieving stable finances, chasing your dreams, travel, living life to the fullest etc etc etc…

There is just not many reasons for an individual to have kids in a wealthy, secure society with a giant government “looking after you” from cradle to the grave.

For a Society though, big consequences. The bills need to be paid, work needs to get done (even the crap jobs), and government needs to be fed. The above won’t be happening without strong young backs, and sharp young minds taking the reins when us older folks shuffle off the retirement homes, keeping the hospitals busy, and draining the federal government.

Elderly benefits is the single biggest expense in the Federal budget.

#108 ImGonnaBeSick on 11.22.18 at 9:41 pm

#83 – sharon in salmon arm – you know, Salmon Arm was the only town where I actually locked the deadbolt on our hotel room when my wife and I toured around BC. Thanks for confirming that I wasn’t being paranoid. Woof, that town is full of ugly people … Almost as ugly as Toronto. Go Leafs.

#109 Fish on 11.22.18 at 9:45 pm

Digital currency
From: Financial Consumer Agency of Canada

https://www.canada.ca/en/financial-consumer-agency/services/payment/digital-currency.html

#110 Where's The Money Greedeau? on 11.22.18 at 9:45 pm

Re: #93 For those about to flop… on 11.22.18 at 8:52 pm
#91 Where’s The Money Greedeau? on 11.22.18 at 8:45 pm
I thought that zolo was publishing sold prices on its site.
I noticed that the house I was commenting on in Maple Ridge, 21948 Acadia Street, Maple Ridge House for sale (MLS® R2258275), was sold on Nov. 15th but you have to log in to zolo to get the sold price.

Hey Greedy.

It sold for 620k on November 8th

Asking 629k

If you want more information go to Zealty and type in the address.

Peace,Flop…

M44BC
++++++++++++++++++++++++
Thanks for the tip but…….
I did just that, went to zealty, typed in addy-MLS#…..no info, just saying sold. Have to register there also.
Not a chance!
It was originally for sale if I remember right either $7 or $899k back in the spring, so quite a tumble, >25% to over 30% for the latter.
Would love to see original DOM. How about 180 days, sounds close lol.

#111 Where's The Money Greedeau? on 11.22.18 at 9:50 pm

Re: #93 For those about to flop… on 11.22.18 at 8:52 pm
+++++++++++++++++++++++
Oops, my bad, the info is up on the side. Never noticed it.
204 DOM, wow…
Still doesn’t show original asking price…..and how many times it was re-priced.
I think it was 5-6x over that time.

#112 Yuus bin Haad on 11.22.18 at 9:54 pm

I find myself more-and-more reading all the comments from top to bottom – tonight’s have been the best yet (with some classic “– Garth”s) – catch you all in the AM

#113 Marcus on 11.22.18 at 9:58 pm

The solution is simple. Turn off the media in your house and purge your mind of the globalist programming. Step two is the fun part. Make babies. Lots of babies. If you don’t ….. then your ancestors fought for nothing. Honor your ancestors by continuing their legacy. Not doing so is just plane suicide.

#114 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.22.18 at 10:00 pm

#3 A on 11.22.18 at 4:28 pm
What is quality of life in Japan though? Doesn’t seem to be too bad, is it because they have an economy based on producing actual goods and not real estate?
And are high levels of immigration not responsible for increasing traffic and hospital wait times in Toronto? The government does not build the infrastructure to support he amount of people that move to the region.
———-
Great post.
Been to Japan and had to avail myself of their emergency hospital services.
Ambulance, emergency room with 2 doctors and 4 nurses all in white coats.
Discharged within one hour.
Damage: $55 Canadian

#115 akashic record on 11.22.18 at 10:01 pm

#78 akashic record on 11.22.18 at 8:13 pm

Then don’t say racist, xenophobic things. Simple. – Garth

Who decides what are “the racist, xenophobic things”?
Where do these people get their license?

The ones who own blogs. Now shut up. – Garth

Jawohl, comrade.
Should I also move to restricted section of the bus?
Should I pin a star on my coat?

Nah, stick with the horns. – Garth

#116 Ustabe on 11.22.18 at 10:06 pm

What a mess this comment section is today…people are tense, letting their real thoughts flow.

Ontario integrity commissioner under significant pressure to open an investigation into D. Ford. Trump increasingly shoved further into a corner, the White House turkey refusing a pardon and cooperating with Mueller.

Stock markets flat or decreasing, incomes being stretched.

So we will fight one another I guess.

I have a solution. Make enough money so you don’t have to worry if you lose a chunk. Respect others. Allow yourself to enjoy your country, your fellow citizens and those who would come here and share that with you.

I road tripped across Canada and back last summer. Met a whole bunch of folks from all different provinces and walks of life. None of them live in the bubble that exists for so many who post here.

Some of you, who I have been reading for months and months, have significantly changed your voice, how you present. That gets my spidey sense going. If you need help, reach out.

I mean, today alone I’m seeing folks deleted who I have never seen prior.

Buy a new computer…I just did and this one lets me know that there are hot women in my area who want to date. That cheered me up!

#117 AM in MN on 11.22.18 at 10:09 pm

The issue with immigration is not simply a numbers game, it has to do with culture and belief systems, and to a certain extent language.

Canada does a better job than most because the immigrants are from mixed languages and cultures, and therefore are forced to adopt the dominant culture. As long as they are at an acceptable rate for cost burdens such as free healthcare and education for the children. Canada is already in a competition for skilled and investor immigrants, the problem is the unskilled that come with a lot of burden.

Also, the bigger problem is voting rights. How soon to give them this if they can’t speak the language or mix with the broader culture. Can you have individual rights, including private property, along with a reasonably un-corrupt (by world standards) bureaucracy and security state when many of the voters are from unfree countries and used to voting for corrupt ones?

Ask people in London and Paris these days. The problem is, once the answer is NO, it’s probably too late to reverse the trend. Most of California is on the same path.

Further, I don’t “deny” that it’s the coldest November in more than 100 years…and that “global warming” theory is based on fraudulent numbers! Time to force the doom mongers to put up some real people who will put their professional credentials behind the numbers!

#118 Salmon Arm on 11.22.18 at 10:13 pm

#107 I’m Gonna Be Sick
You locked a dead bolt.
in Salmon Arm?
ROFLMAO

#119 Doug in London on 11.22.18 at 10:13 pm

So stocks are down recently. Well, what did you expect? Nov. 23 is Black Friday and many stocks and ETFs, just like merchandise in many stores, are on sale now.

#120 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.22.18 at 10:25 pm

Garth was once courted by the Green Party.
—————-
On October 19, 2006, the Toronto Star reported that Turner was being courted to become the first ever Green Party of Canada member of Parliament. Turner praised Green leader Elizabeth May on his blog and campaigned for her in her bid to win a seat in the London by-election.[4] According to Turner’s weblog, his constituents were consulted over a number of weeks, and various options for action were considered: that he remain an independent Member of Parliament with no party affiliation; that he reconcile with the Conservative party; or that he join the Green Party.
——
Interesting

Everybody loves me. – Garth

#121 Linda on 11.22.18 at 10:34 pm

Very interesting information on Japan. I had not been aware people were abandoning houses. Where then do they live? Also, the anticipated change in population is a stunner, though not unexpected as Japan has such a high percentage of aged citizens. How does one deal with an annual death rate of nearly one million people?

As for replacing those people, should we? Over population has its issues. The effects of technology means far fewer people are required to perform the same amount of work. It has never been considered a good thing to have a high percentage of the working age population out of work. A shrinking population may have more benefits than are immediately apparent.

#122 Dr PetVet on 11.22.18 at 10:35 pm

Here Kitty, kitty, kitty,…..

https://ca.yahoo.com/news/cat-tests-positive-rabies-southern-055313999.html

Garth your love for pooches has been biologically validated!

#123 Kilt on 11.22.18 at 10:37 pm

Hehe. Garth sounds more like Bernie Sanders every day? So far from the truth.
Canada should send buses down to those caravan refugees and bring them all up here. I’m sure there is lots of place like Salmon Arm where they can find work and friendly people to assist them in becoming Canadian. The people in my town who are breaking laws or causing trouble are not refugees or immigrants.

Time to buy into the TSX? Not so sure of that. I still think we have room to drop. Hopefully we will bounce off 14,000. Once BNS and CM start paying over 5%, then I will start to nibble. Judging from how things are going, we likely won’t get a year end rally, instead a bunch of tax loss selling.

Kilt.

#124 Lawnboy on 11.22.18 at 10:47 pm

@107

I spent a week in Salmon Arm one night!

LB

#125 Changeemall on 11.22.18 at 10:50 pm

“I have learned over the years that when you wrestle with a pig you both get dirty, and the swine loves it. So wallow on. -Garth”

An old saying goes… you can’t teach an old dog new tricks. But today’s neuroscientists have proven that neuroplasticity is available at any age. I just can’t give up on you boomers, even if you refer to me as a swine.

#126 akashic record on 11.22.18 at 10:50 pm

#114 akashic record on 11.22.18 at 10:01 pm

#78 akashic record on 11.22.18 at 8:13 pm

Then don’t say racist, xenophobic things. Simple. – Garth

Who decides what are “the racist, xenophobic things”?
Where do these people get their license?

The ones who own blogs. Now shut up. – Garth

Jawohl, comrade.
Should I also move to restricted section of the bus?
Should I pin a star on my coat?

Nah, stick with the horns. – Garth

I am very grateful for the grace of your permission.

#127 Fish on 11.22.18 at 10:53 pm

legal tender, simple guarantee

Digital currencies are not a legal tender
Digital currencies, such as Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies, are not legal tender in Canada. Only the Canadian dollar is considered official currency in Canada.

The Currency Act defines legal tender.

Legal tender is defined as:

bank notes issued by the Bank of Canada under the Bank of Canada Act
coins issued under the Royal Canadian Mint Act
Digital currencies are not supported by any government or central authority, such as the Bank of Canada.

Financial institutions, such as banks or credit unions, don’t manage or oversee digital currency.

#128 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.22.18 at 11:03 pm

@#83 Sharing in Salmon Arm

Really?
The “invasion” has reached the center of BC?
Forest Fire central.
Where do they all stay?
Smoke damaged winterized Houseboats beached for the season?
Or the TravelLodge near the “new” downtown core conveniently nestled on the “other side of the highway” away from the “toney” waterfront district…..(folks dont get too drunk and wander or the trains will get ya) just down the tracks from the defunct Greyhound station…. Just one question
Have they rebuilt the burnt Bar/Beer store yet?
Salmon Arm never has to apologize and say their “Surrey”.

#129 toronto1 on 11.22.18 at 11:18 pm

Interest Rates– unbelievable how much a panic 1-1.25% increase causes.

my personal perspective- rates will continue to rise because they have to preserve the greater financial system. The “market” must be able to buy bonds at a price point that makes sense. The central banks are walking a tightrope right now– they are trying to ease off the QE and hope that the market will step up to support but they also know that the market will not do it at the current yield.

personally, i am more worried about Europe going bust when the ECB tries to ease up on their QE and finds that the market will only do so at yields north of 5%………

the other side is pension funds and insurance companies- with the grey wave about to crest out- thats a lot of people drawing down pensions— without a significant rise in rates- those pensions are in jeopardy.

Insurance companies run a tight margin- only making a few percent spread on the actuary models and making up the difference in the markets- mostly safe stuff like bonds…. well they also need better yields to maintain status quo

#130 Daniel Bouchard on 11.22.18 at 11:27 pm

An economy based on continual growth in a finite space is running towards a wall. We can already see part of the wall as in climate change. The only solution is population reduction and control. somebody was comparing India to Ontario , do we need to aspire to such cesspool like living conditions? I may have a truckload invested in the market, but I’m very clear headed knowing this is all going to bust one day or another and/or we’ll all end up living the Indian nightmare. Democracy/ supply-demand economy as we presently know it is but a pimple on the history of humanity. PS: Garth, nobody wins on these blog subjects, too hot to handle. Wow i feel like I’m a doomer today….

#131 Long-Time Lurker on 11.22.18 at 11:38 pm

Well, that was depressing. (Comments section)

So…

Happy Thanksgiving, Americans!

and…

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-6417443/Regular-exercisers-hearts-muscles-people-decades-younger-them.html?ns_mchannel=rss&ito=1490&ns_campaign=1490

Staying active ‘takes 30 years off your body’: Regular exercisers have the hearts and muscles of people decades younger than them, study finds.

By PETER LLOYD FOR MAILONLINE
PUBLISHED: 07:24 EST, 22 November 2018 | UPDATED: 11:28 EST, 22 November 2018

Physically fit pensioners have almost identical muscles to 25-year-olds, a study has found.

Experts from Ball State University in Muncie, Indiana, studied 28 people over 70 who have been exercising consistently since the 1970s to determine how staying active can offset the physical decline associated with ageing.

The results, published in the Journal of Applied Physiology, also noted those who work-out regularly shave 30 years of their body’s ‘biological’ age compared to their peers….

#132 DON on 11.22.18 at 11:40 pm

#83 sharon in salmon arm on 11.22.18 at 8:24 pm

That’s right Garth…let all the sick, infirm,crims etc breach the borders and have the tax payer pay for them. Don’t see you plutocrats stepping up to offer a warm bed for these folks. No, it’s always the poor sucker tax payer, many who don’t have a home or 3 square meals have to pay for these folks..

I guess I should expect some nasty comment from you about helping the poor, disenfranchised…the misunderstood terrorists and criminals..

You sound more like Bernie Sanders every day..

You are right Sir, this blog hasn’t changed the past few years but you sure have…Sleep well in your safe bed..

Note to readers: this post was not deleted to give you a taste of the ones that are. God help us. – Garth
************

Most of our families are immigrants Sharon.

Garth has been consistent and balanced through out the history of his blog.

Is Salmon Arm being over run with immigrants. Nice place but quiet, I hear house prices are high there, is that correct? But life must be decent, no stray bullets, gangs or violent crime.

#133 iogitra on 11.23.18 at 12:00 am

The 1st solution to remedy ageing population should be stimulating the improvement of birth rates. For example tax stimulus for families with children and with a stay-at-home parent raising children.
Why corporations can get financial stimulus and tax breaks and families can not? Seems our governments deems corporations much more important than the family unit? Why have both parents have to work their ass off so that the’d be able to make the payments for the half to 1 million mortgage for 2/3 bedroom particle board detached or a box in the sky? A cynic might say this is by design so that people cannot pay attention to the real problems in their life/society. You know how communists were doing it just smarter, with bells and whistles instead of trips to the gulag.
Immigration is good but should not be the main solution just the complimentary one. Only those who deserve should be welcomed. An analogy: If you build a big house in good order and clean – if you want to rent half of it – would you screen your potential tenants or welcome just anybody without any discerning assessment?

#134 Charlez Genge on 11.23.18 at 12:08 am

Something is going on and no one knows the answers. Your insight is refreshing Mr. Turner!

#135 IHCTD9 on 11.23.18 at 12:11 am

#96 acdel on 11.22.18 at 8:56 pm
If multiculturalism works then why are there so many sections of cities strictly against fitting into Canadian culture and have created there own little country?
—————

Same thing happened decades ago, but instead of cramming themselves into enclaves, immigrants built a Church and a formed community around that. All the basic help a newcomer needed could be had through this community, language, accommodations, jobs, fellowship, marriage partners, you name it. Same deal as today’s enclaves. It cost the taxpayer $0.00, and zero government agencies were required.

Today, these small town Churches stand in memory of those nationalities that came before us, but many are now empty. The descendants of the original immigrants have moved on, and new immigration from their homelands petered out. Take a peek in a few of these old stone and brick Churches on a Sunday morning and you’ll see a small group of mainly Women, and everyone is 70+ years old. Kind of a canary in a coal mine no? Eventually, they won’t be able to pay the heat and hydro bills and that’ll be another old empty Church. The same end will meet any nation that lets itself age out of the money.

The 1+ Gen GTA enclave dwellers will move on in similar fashion over time, the enclaves will grow as long as new immigration keeps happening, and when it doesn’t; they will slowly die out.

Oh, speaking of money – that is what immigration is all about. When I hear the word “multiculturalism” it goes in one ear and out the other. If we had hoards of Western, English speaking Caucasians scratching at the door with kids in tow, you can bet your @ss we’d be filling our boots. But they aren’t. The problem with Western Caucasians is that they are doing just fine wherever they are, and feel zero need to move.

We are getting mostly developing/semi third world immigrants right now because that is the best we can do – simple as that. They’re educated, many speak English, so they do have the potential to become solid taxpayers (economic class immigrants). In about 30 years though, we won’t even be able to get these if China and India keep getting wealthier.

Then we will be either drawing folks with a very poor taxpayer potential, start having babies again, or not pay the heat and hydro bill…

#136 For those about to flop... on 11.23.18 at 12:18 am

#110 Where’s The Money Greedeau? on 11.22.18 at 9:50 pm
Re: #93 For those about to flop… on 11.22.18 at 8:52 pm
+++++++++++++++++++++++
Oops, my bad, the info is up on the side. Never noticed it.
204 DOM, wow…
Still doesn’t show original asking price…..and how many times it was re-priced.
I think it was 5-6x over that time.

**************************

Hey Greedy,this is what I was able to dig up on your behalf.

Maybe all my posts should come with an asterisk now as I was born in a foreign country.

I would be wary if I was you as this information is being supplied by a dirty immigrant…

M44BC*Dirty Immigrant.

2018-04-17 : $899,900
2018-10-11 : $729,900
2018-10-29 : $629,900

#137 Dolce Vita on 11.23.18 at 12:36 am

So, if I have this correct today’s Blog was about the future ahead for Fiscal Policy (Mr. Socks) and Monetary Policy (Central Bankers) with some market feedback thrown in for good measure (Mr. Bond Market).

Like a few others, I have read the Comments to #126 and early this AM here in Italia, sipping my Espresso Lungo, I am wondering what the heck?

You JUST HAD TO threw your less than devout followers a bone with raw meat on it to spice things up (Japan vis-à-vis population age, immigration, collapsed RE market, the kitchen sink, climate change, etc.).

Queue FREE FOR ALL.

Nicely done Turner, though your rebuttals were WORTH the read.

On the bright side, you ought to apply for some of that $600 MM in Cdn. MSM RELIEF…if anyone needs relief today, it would be you.

Buona Mattina.

———————————————

PS:

Thanks for not deleting #84 mogulrider and:

“…Hey Climate puppet”,

THAT was good.

I also liked the use of the word “sophistry” after the above…from Slacker to Philosopher juxtaposed in the same breath, too funny. Still killing myself laughing. Just as good, the Comment was pretty Zen, Laconic. Nice.

If that was a Moister that wrote that, there is hope for Canada.

#138 Rentin on 11.23.18 at 1:00 am

If the Canadian birth rate was +2.0 , then we wouldn’t have a declining population. Both parents need to work now, to afford a house and there is no way that with 3 or 4 kids that anyone can afford the payment for care. So with planned families, the average ends up short of 2.0. I don’t think artificially keeping the number above 2.0 with immigration really helps solve the problem of prosperity.

I think the individual wealth of a country is mostly controlled by the amount of marketable product created from within its borders that can be sold for a large profit margin abroad. Like oil, lumber, metals, AI, electricity, tourism…..

This QE cycle that we are finally through has just created a big mess. We are now selling fancy boxes to each other at, until last year, ever increasing prices. That’s not creating wealth, that’s only moving it around.

And its not real wealth since the bulk of it is borrowed. The debtor is now stuck with a pile of debt leveraged against an asset the they are only able to sell at a profit should that greater fool come along.

Depressing really. What’s worse is what will happen in the next 400 years or so with climate change. Canada too cold and politically stable for you right now? Just wait. There will be contries that you can’t live in whether they are under water or so hot and dry nothing will grow (unless you are pumping out 30MB of oil each day and can pay for indoor ski hills in the desert or desalination plants).

Then Canada will look like a cozy place to call home.

#139 Vampire studies on 11.23.18 at 1:02 am

126 Fish. I get paid direct deposit. I pay all bills on-line.
I invest on-line. I use CC for larger purchases and interac for latte and small stuff.

No need to see a “red cent”, a C-note or anything else physical.

My business can pay remittance (ie taxes owed by my
employees) on-line.

So it would seem it is all digital and legal tender.

#140 Dolce Vita on 11.23.18 at 1:17 am

Since today has been a total FREE FOR ALL, I may as well throw in as well.

“Italy’s a populist mess.”

Do me a favor Garth, stop letting yourself be brainwashed by the soon to be $600 MM funded Lefty Cdn. MSM.

The vote plurality was near 70%.

Unlike Canada where you elect a majority Gov with 39% of the vote. Thus and to your point:

“Canada hijacked by a Leftist minority.”

Italian’s are sick and tired of a go nowhere GDP and being France, Germany and anyone else on our borders’ “Migrant” dumping ground. The EU is run by a non-elected Globalist bureaucracy, simple as that. They will do anything to discredit a democratically elected Gov that does not agree with them.

Every day I read from Commie: Il Manifesto, to Righty: Il Foglio and everything else in between (La Repubblica, RAI, Il Giornale) to get at the truth.

You should DO THE SAME to better inform and to avail yourself from necessarily short Lefty slogan’s for the weak of mind.

But alas, GOOD LUCK WITH THAT in Canada (still have CBC, CTV, Global, CNN, MSNBC and Fox in my Chrome “Entertainment” bookmarks folder since that is all they are good for).

I minor sampling below. Tip of the iceberg. So where did all that CBC, CTV, Global Lisa LaFlamme “Migrant” indignity go to?

Here is everyone’s Lefty darling Macron sending armed police on Italian soil to intercept and stop “Migrants” from entering France on an inbound train in Italy (this from Centrist, or Left of Center Corriere della Sera):

In Chrome, right click, select Translate to English.

Bardonecchia: «French armed police in Italy hunting for migrants»

https://www.corriere.it/cronache/18_marzo_31/bardonecchia-polizia-francese-armata-territorio-italiano-caccia-migranti-7faf8cc8-3467-11e8-a1e2-51062e133ddb.shtml?refresh_ce-cp

One more. Here’s THE North American darling NGO ship Aquarius from SOS Mediterranee, perennial Migrant ferry ship, caught trying to dump 24,000 kg of caustic and infective waste in Italian waters, in Chrome use English Translate:

https://www.quotidiano.net/cronaca/aquarius-sequestrata-1.4304183

So where’s all that GREEN, CLIMATE CHANGE environmental indignity gone to North America?

Oh where or where?

And they wonder why Italy has gone “Populist”.

North American MSM:

HEAD, BURY IN SAND.

#141 Proud Dreg on 11.23.18 at 1:19 am

SoggyShorts on 11.22.18 at 8:30 pm
#43 Proud Dreg on 11.22.18 at 6:33 pm
Trolling, right? Not actually that retarded?
“It’s cold today, so climate change is fake”

https://medium.com/matt-bors/cold-weather-and-global-warming-both-real-things-40052cbdb4d2

>>>>

Funny how you would use the word retarded when what I was trying to demonstrate is we have been fed a lie called GLOBAL warming. The earth is not getting warmer, its getting colder. Why do you think the #fakenews continues to concentrate on small areas like LA and areas in Australia where there is a drought, while leaving 50 million square kms of land absent from their science.

The why is easy. Taxes to feed the gargantuan monster called government.

#142 Smoking Man on 11.23.18 at 1:22 am

DELETED

#143 Deplorable Dude on 11.23.18 at 1:31 am

There are alternatives to immigration to grow a population…e.g. offer incentives for the native population to have more children.

We do that. – Garth

#144 robert james on 11.23.18 at 1:49 am

Trump is bragging again… https://forums.castanet.net/download/file.php?id=40936&mode=view

#145 S on 11.23.18 at 2:00 am

#96 acdel on 11.22.18 at 8:56 pm

People like to be around people like them. You are a good example. – Garth

Apparently they do. My (mixed race) daughter tells me that some of her high school friends are not allowed to invite home their white classmates even to complete joint projects. Racism and bigotry is a fact of life and is a two way street.

#146 Eric on 11.23.18 at 2:58 am

DELETED

#147 Jacky Dangerous on 11.23.18 at 3:50 am

Calling all climate crazies, it’s all been a fraud. So say the experts. Not to late to seek help.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/23/asia-markets-us-china-trade-war-brexit-currencies-in-focus.html

#148 Jacky Dangerous on 11.23.18 at 3:52 am

Woops, wrong link. Good thing it wasn’t my dick pics collection, whew!!

https://business.financialpost.com/opinion/peter-foster-another-report-reluctantly-admits-that-green-energy-is-a-disastrous-flop

#149 Howard on 11.23.18 at 5:24 am

Japan is the 3rd biggest economy in the world and its GDP per capita is one of the highest. It is a crowded place and could do with some population decline. As long as quality of life remains stable (and it has), what’s the problem?

Oh my goodness, lots of cheap houses for young Japanese people. Sounds awful! So horrible for Japan to be looking out for its own citizens.

And Garth, why are the only two options “no immigration” or one of the highest immigrant rates in the Western world? There is a middle ground.

#150 When Will They Raise Rates? on 11.23.18 at 5:33 am

#126 Fish on 11.22.18 at 10:53 pm

Digital currencies are not a legal tender

—————————————————–

Not until “they” say so, that is:

https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2018/11/13/sp111418-winds-of-change-the-case-for-new-digital-currency

^ Right there from the horse’s mouth, they’re planning a new world cryptocurrency issued by the central banks.

Reject it.

#151 When Will They Raise Rates? on 11.23.18 at 5:52 am

DELETED

#152 Howard on 11.23.18 at 6:15 am

After all, when the US president calls ragtag economic refugees ‘invaders’

———————————

“Economic refugee”?

Is that like Trudeau’s “irregular border crossers”?

If a migrant enters a country for purely economic reasons, by definition the migrant is not a refugee.

Of course they are. War, turmoil, drug cartels and corrupt leaders destroy economic opportunity, causing people to flee in order to survive and care for their families. Have you ever suffered thusly? Well, then silence. – Garth

#153 In Garth We Trust on 11.23.18 at 6:17 am

“Combine this with a rebound in oil prices (if it comes) and you will be so happy that you overweighted Canadian equities when they were, like me, cheap and unloved. You did that, right?”

The most important point in Captain Garth’s blog and so little comment on it…. Blog dog alert! The financial oracle that runs this blog is telling you what to do to benefit from Canadian equities. Get crackin!

#154 "we do that" on 11.23.18 at 6:45 am

keep pushing your globalist tripe, you only discredit yourself further. as for the climate change UN agenda that you seem to swallow hook,line and sinker, watch this and look at what you are actually supporting

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bkar4jn3JWw

you come off as a useful idiot to those of us whom you berate, and the irony is that you will never have a seat at their table

wake up

#155 Frank The Tank on 11.23.18 at 6:48 am

I live in Newmarket and there has been a great blend of immigrants from Persia, Russia, China, Latin America etc… It has worked out amazingly. They are doctors and dentists and entrepreneurs. Everyone here cares about their neighborhoods and the integration with long time generational residents (English, Scots, Italians, etc..) has been inspiring to say the least.

I truly believe Newmarket is a special place because unlike Brampton or Richmond Hill or Markham or parts of the Big Smoke, there is a complete blend here. The city is growing rapidly, especially with young families and my kids are getting exposed to all kinds of cultures but under the banner of CANADA – – not really something one once thought about Newmarket.

Canada is beautiful – and that includes welcoming those who want to make it more so … and they do.

#156 David Prokop on 11.23.18 at 6:50 am

Anybody noticed there was no Happy Thanksgiving to our American friends from Junior? Nada, at least not on Twitter. Cold war?

#157 Adrian on 11.23.18 at 6:57 am

I think if you follow your own observations to their logical conclusion, Garth, you’ll realize that Professor Steve Keen is right after all, and the data is verifying it.

Pick two, at most:
a) Balanced government budget,
b) Higher interest rates,
c) Growing economy.

How Austerity Works: a simple numerical example:
https://youtu.be/0y5rP56OX78

#158 Frank The Tank on 11.23.18 at 7:04 am

An interesting rebuttal to CHMC report on suburban commuting cost. The author asserts suburbia is still cheaper. I don’t think this argument will go away anytime soon.

Link – https://business.financialpost.com/real-estate/dont-let-the-cost-of-commuting-from-the-suburbs-fool-you-its-still-cheaper-to-live-there

#159 akashic record on 11.23.18 at 7:25 am

We have never had ‘uncontrolled immigration.’ – Garth

Canada as a country was created by immigration the natives could not control.

Do Japanese people have the right to decide what level of immigration they want?

Should they decide or others should decide for them?

Can Japan, the Japanese people be called “racist, xenophobe” because their preference about immigration?

Is implying or calling them out as “racist, xenophobe” in order to change their practice a collective bullying?

Someone pee in your cereal today? Japan is merely an example of demographic inevitability. – Garth

#160 Mike on 11.23.18 at 7:32 am

@Garth – have you seen this?
Monopoly for Millennials Board Game https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07K2HWK2B/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_api_Vf.9BbEHB65BM

“Forget real estate – you can’t afford it anyway”

#161 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.23.18 at 7:52 am

@#135 Flop
“I would be wary if I was you as this information is being supplied by a dirty immigrant…”
+++++

And I always thought Tasmanians bathed on a regular basis…..

#162 Y. Knott on 11.23.18 at 7:53 am

#1 Flamen Lupanares
Climate Denier
********************
I don’t like the term “climate denier”. I prefer to be called “rational and sensible”.

I don’t like it either – I prefer to be called “That’s grape kool-aid, and I ain’t drinkin’ it!”

#163 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.23.18 at 7:58 am

Hmmmmm

If the British PM is kicked out of office because of Brexit and the minority govt reforms as Labour in power.
Will avowed socialist/communist PM Jeremy Corbin nationalize everything?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-labour-mcdonnell/britains-opposition-labour-party-plots-overthrow-of-capitalism-idUSKCN1NS189

Hold on to your financial pants ladies and germs….you aint seen nuthin yet.

#164 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.23.18 at 8:01 am

@#147 jacky Delusional
“Good thing it wasn’t my dick pics collection…”
++++

They can make files that small?

#165 TurnerNation on 11.23.18 at 8:19 am

I think what bothers Canadians the most is the selective application of laws unto the Liberal’s/UNs protected or special classes of people. Privilege trumps right.
Victimhood is assured its place in our society

example
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/manitoba-impaired-driving-penalties-deportation-1.4917026

#166 TurnerNation on 11.23.18 at 8:45 am

If I got convicted of a serious crime they’d throw the book at me. Long sentence no chance of parole for a long time. Why: I present as a high functioning productive worker. The kind they want to keep in line. The judge would thunder We must send a strong message that behavior like this Must. Not. Be. Tolerated. In a civillized society.

Yet you see in the local news teenaged career gangbangers charged again and again with serious weapons offences and…breach of parole or probation. They are described smirking in court. And free to walk around. Not I. I’m a walking target.

The Canadian Barter of Rights and Freedoms – a T1 work of fiction under T2.

I am the new victim – of my success. How’s the weather in Arizona now ex-pats? And house prices? Looking good?

#167 James on 11.23.18 at 9:13 am

#59 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.22.18 at 7:12 pm

My goodness!
Smoking Man hasnt even shown up yet and we have a tsunami of DELETED.
_________________________________________
First post for Smoking Man.

#141 Smoking Man on 11.23.18 at 1:22 am

DELETED
__________________________________
We did not miss anything important.

#168 difference on 11.23.18 at 9:27 am

The difference between Canada and the US is that here we have JT, whereas Americans have DJT – with a big D.
The Canadian one has no D at all.

#169 Employed on 11.23.18 at 9:47 am

#166 James – I will have you know that the Smoking Man has incorporated a new business. He has many customers, and is earning a good cash return by advertising his expert services on billboards. He is now the official Newport Beach dog walker for the little old ladies, and they are given treats.

#170 Fish on 11.23.18 at 9:55 am

Ontairo cottage sales surge amid double-digit price increases

Grand Bend, Haliburton and Rideau Lakes areas see largest sales spikes
Colin Butler · CBC News · Posted: Jun 27, 2017 2:18 PM ET | Last Updated: June 27, 2017

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/london/real-estate-ontario-cottage-sales-grand-bend-1.4179879

#171 ANON on 11.23.18 at 10:01 am

OIL

.

’nuff said

With global demand at record levels anyone with exposure to crude at these prices will probably be happy in the future. – Garth

#172 Multicultural Mel on 11.23.18 at 10:38 am

#154 Frank The Tank on 11.23.18 at 6:48 am
“I live in Newmarket and there has been a great blend of immigrants from Persia, Russia, China, Latin America etc… It has worked out amazingly.”

Kudos to the good folks of Newmarket who are a microcosm of what makes this nation great. The GTA is probably the most multicultural area in the world and for the most part we are living in harmony. Let’s pat ourselves on the back folks and continue to set an example for the rest of the planet.

#173 Travis on 11.23.18 at 10:45 am

My wife taught for a year in Korea in 2010-2011, they’re going in the same direction as Japan. They’re also quite xenophobic (they regularly have news articles decrying the wave of immigrants invading their country, in reality this is less than 1% of their population.) Some of these articles featured prototype robots that they hoped could be used in a classroom to replace teachers (most of their foreign population are English teachers and other such jobs where you need a fluent English speaker.)

Don’t get me wrong, my wife loved being there and met great people, but there was clearly a xenophobic element in their country. They’re going to go in the same direction as Japan now that families are getting smaller. It’s sad to see the xenophobia taking root here now as well. As Garth said, be careful what you wish for. A country that puts up walls sets itself up for stagnation, decay, and irrelevancy.

#174 IHCTD9 on 11.23.18 at 10:50 am

#132 iogitra on 11.23.18 at 12:00 am

The 1st solution to remedy ageing population should be stimulating the improvement of birth rates. For example tax stimulus for families with children and with a stay-at-home parent raising children.
______________________

Been tried for ages and it doesn’t work. Never has worked.

Makes sense too – if you absolutely did not want to have kids, how much money would you need to change your mind?

Having kids is a lifestyle decision. It involves major sacrifices on every front. You need to be prepared to endure vulnerability, loss of control, emotional strife, worry, and fear. A lot of the plans you may have had for your life go out the window for a couple decades when raising the kiddies.

I know what it takes, and for the government to make me have kids if I did not want them – they’d have to make me a millionaire first. No way would I dive into that kind of commitment against my will just for a 500.00/mo CCB cheque.

You pretty much have to raise the value of having children in your society so folks will want to have them all on their own.

An example of what government could do to raise the value of having offspring would be to eliminate OAS, GIS, and CPP along with all the other senior benefits currently being handed out. That would essentially make having children mandatory.

Of course – this will not happen in a million years. Short of folks voluntarily putting aside their individual desires to have children for the sake of the nation’s future (not happening either), – it will remain immigration Canada’s job to replace, and grow the Canadian population.

#175 James on 11.23.18 at 10:51 am

#68 JuliaS on 11.22.18 at 7:39 pm

Japan went to war because they were highly industrialized, but energy deprived. No oil meant going from industrial dominance to irrelevance. Well, they lost and had to earn oil instead of taking it. However, the need for cheap energy didn’t diminish. In fact, if you’ve ever been to Japan, you’d know how much effort goes into conservation of every natural resource. Remember Fukushima? In case you wonder why a country would build a nuclear reactor in a seismically active zone close to the shore, the answer is: “The lost the war, didn’t they? You think they’re doing this because of abundance of oil gas and coal?”

As for declining birth rates – when your’e energy deprived it’s a blessing. It means fewer moths to feed and less need to build “earthquake-ready” reactors.

Aging population wouldn’t be a problem either, along with deflation, if their government didn’t attempt to fix the bubble economy the same way ours did back in 2008. Ours (and the US counterpart) are as much fixed as the Japanese one, only we’re decades behind in terms of realizing long-terms implication of interest rate meddling.
_______________________________________

The Japanese had been at this long before the industrial proliferation had begun. they were invading in the 1800’s. The Japanese started the modern imperialist expansion with the conquest of Manchuria in 1931. Manchuria (China) was rich in natural resources, something that the island nation of Japan did not have. This invasion was extensively perceived as an economic holy grail to the Japanese as they were crumbling under the effects of the Great Depression. Much of the Korean peninsula was already under control from the first Sino-Japanese War in 1895. So the Manchurian invasion was simply an imperialist expansion of territory needed to succeed as a powerful nation. The Japanese could not take the nearby Philippines as they were in American control and influence at the time. The Japanese were notorious for raping and pillaging the Asian controlled area and were also known as extremely racist peoples towards other cultures. Japan would not let any foreigners into its home Islands and barely tolerated the subjugated peoples that they had invaded. They thought of them as inferior and not worthy to share Japanese culture. The Japanese believed that they were a racially superior people compared to the rest of Asia and that they were preordained to rule all of Asia. Japan was ostracized for its invasion and occupation of Manchuria by the League of Nations and withdrew from it totally isolating themselves from the rest of the world. Sound familiar to any other country today?

https://qz.com/1317508/the-racist-tweets-following-osakas-earthquake-echo-a-dark-moment-in-japanese-history/

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/2123539/no-chinese-why-anti-china-racism-so-big-japan

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2018/06/03/commentary/japan-commentary/face-reality-racism-japan/

#176 James on 11.23.18 at 10:56 am

#168 Employed on 11.23.18 at 9:47 am

#166 James – I will have you know that the Smoking Man has incorporated a new business. He has many customers, and is earning a good cash return by advertising his expert services on billboards. He is now the official Newport Beach dog walker for the little old ladies, and they are given treats.
____________________________________________
Eeew I just threw up………………….

#177 dharma bum on 11.23.18 at 11:03 am

#112 Marcus

“Not doing so is just plane suicide.”
——————————————————————–

Is that, like, when, an airplane crashes itself?

#178 Stone walker on 11.23.18 at 11:08 am

Wow, the comment section is really living up to it’s reputation today. I will say, publishing the different viewpoints and idea’s makes it very interesting to read and often learn, good of Garth to allow the variety.
#38 Ian, does it seem to you that age plays a part in peoples view of some of the worlds problems? Also #52 Millennial realist, seems the people that will be alive when sea levels increase, droughts and food shortages ravage society are the ones that don’t deny these things and are legitimately concerned about them. However folks that won’t see the massive negative impacts on their lifestyle in their lifetime, seem to like to deny any of these things are a problem? just something I’ve noticed. Some things I’ve never seen an answer to with the climate change argument, how many million years old is the great barrier reef estimated to be, yet it’s died in one generation? why is that? how many climate cycles has the barrier reef lived through before it died? if we’re experiencing a climate “Cycle” that’s happened many times before, why didn’t it survive? just curious. Also, Polar bears are facing extinction. They have been around for how long, and lived through how many other climate cycles? but now their facing extinction? why is the ocean warming and becoming acidic from absorbing carbon and killing marine life, this is a natural event that’s happened before?
Or are the 97% of scientists that say pollution is changing the climate making all this up and faking these facts?
The comparison with Japans economy, population is interesting. Many economists said Japan would be one of the first dominoes to fall. I remember when their central bank rate was 0% 15 years ago, same tactic tried in N. America, it didn’t work for them. However, how much oil does Japan produce? what is their biggest export? do they have as many natural resources as Canada? while I see similarities, there’s also a lot of other factors that make their situation quite different from Canada’s.
If the population doesn’t grow, demand for everything goes down, government has less people to tax ect. One of the worst things for the infinite growth paradigm. Canada has supplemented population growth with immigrants, taking professionals and high income earners, doctors, engineers ect. It just makes sense to want more trained people, however this can drive up prices as we’ve seen happen. It’s unfortunate for some, like a friend of mine that is struggling because of not having a degree or family here (I’m not an immigrant BTW, and don’t hate them either)
We’ll see some interesting times soon,
Salmon arm, doesn’t everyone want to live there? houses cost a fortune, hardly ever see jobs advertised, mild climate…
Prince George on the other hand….

#179 For those about to flop... on 11.23.18 at 11:26 am

Pink Pumpkins being carved in Vancouver.

Here’s another heavy hitter on the Westside in trouble.

One of hundreds, if not thousands.

I just showed you some big losses on Puget and these guys are heading down the same path.

The details…

4086 w 13th ave Vancouver.

Paid 4.5 June 2016

Originally asking 5.89

Now asking 3.68

Assessment 3.89

Shaping up as another million plus loss after expenses.

How low can you go…

M44BC

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/4086-west-13th-avenue

#180 Keyboard Smasher on 11.23.18 at 11:43 am

Typical. Preaches pro-immigration propaganda, yet censors arguments even mildly critical of immigration.

Let me guess, it’s “racist” to comment about immigration?

Only when you say racist things. – Garth

#181 joe bloggs on 11.23.18 at 12:12 pm

Only when you say racist things. – Garth

– LOL!!! And let me guess – you are the judge and jury…

Congrats – you are a real idiot, man, and then you keep whining about Harper…

Of course I am the judge. It’s my space. And when did I mention my bud Steve? – Garth

#182 Wrk.dover on 11.23.18 at 12:14 pm

#177 Stone walker on 11.23.18 at 11:08 am

—————————-

Hit the enter key twice once in a while

It makes a space

Like these!

#183 millmech on 11.23.18 at 12:14 pm

#147
Do not worry about sending the wrong pics, we would just all be wondering why you sent us shots of a button on a fur coat :)

#184 Long-Time Lurker on 11.23.18 at 12:18 pm

Dolce Vita, did you read this yet? Two big short positions against two Italian banks: Banca Mediolanum and Mediobanca.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-23/big-bet-against-italian-banks

#185 whiplash on 11.23.18 at 12:22 pm

Isn’t it great to live in Canada we are blessed to have the US as a friend and neighbor, thousand miles of frozen mosquito infested bush to the north and oceans on each side. One only has to look at the hard data provided by Homeland Security and the numbers are staggering to say the least. The southwest area which represents San Diego to Big Bend Texas or about the came distance from Vancouver to Manitoba. US Border patrol has apprehended in the past 14 years 8,557,930 individuals from crossing into the US illegally.

That represents the combined population of the city of Toronto and Montreal.

And it’s 2% of the US population. – Garth

#186 bdwy sktrn on 11.23.18 at 12:32 pm

A country that puts up walls sets itself up for stagnation, decay, and irrelevancy.
————————————
yup , sure.
china the most dynamic, fastest growing, and relevant economy on the planet a perfect example of why the above argument is junk.

#187 PeterfromCalgary on 11.23.18 at 12:49 pm

OK an aging population is easy to predict but saying climate change is a statistical fact is just wrong.

Climate change is based on computer models which are based on untested assumptions about the effect of CO2 on warming and feed backs like less snow and ice reflecting back less heat. If any of the assumptions are off than the model is wrong. Any wrong assumptions will be amplified over time so the farther out the models predict the more wrong they become.

The IPCC propaganda has been predicting a climate disaster for 30 years. In that time global life expediencies have increased from 65 years to 72 years and absolute poverty has fallen to an all time low. Climate change if it is happening does not out weight the increasing advantages of our fossil fuel powered technology.

Ask your grandkids. – Garth

#188 Tim Kacurov on 11.23.18 at 1:14 pm

It is not the number of immigrants or immigration per se, Garth….it is Quality if immigration…………quality………this is the key……….

Quality like you? – Garth

#189 SoggyShorts on 11.23.18 at 1:15 pm

#140 Proud Dreg on 11.23.18 at 1:19 am
@mogul

I have a question for all you climate deniers:

What’s the motive? Who is being the lie?
Is the trillion-dollar solar energy industry? Oh, wait that doesn’t exist…
Is it a Chinese hoax? Do they somehow control both NASA and 95% of all other scientists? Did they trick 174 countries+the EU into signing the Paris Accord?

So who? Why? What is the motive for trying to trick you into thinking the global average temperature is rising and that human’s are impacting it?

Does it not seem more likely that the actual lies are the ones from those who have something to gain?

#190 Deplorable Dude on 11.23.18 at 1:17 pm

DELETED

#191 ll on 11.23.18 at 1:17 pm

“But before you book a flight, remember how the Japanese feel about immigrants or refugees. Not generous”.

Japan is one of the world safest place to travel on earth.
I would travel first to Japan before going to Germany, Sweden, Uk or Paris!

#192 ll on 11.23.18 at 1:23 pm

There is other way to increase population.
Immigration is not the solution.

Italy prime Minister now offer young couple who want kids, farmland, lot.

Other countries also having creative idea.

#193 IHCTD9 on 11.23.18 at 1:33 pm

When I think about the future success of Canadian immigration, I think it all hinges on the success of China and India.

If the quality of life keeps improving in these two countries, the raft of folks exiting same for Canada will peter out. I think it’s just a matter of time before it happens.

Life has to be real tough for folks to exit their culture for one utterly different. If life becomes even just adequate or “good enough”, then they won’t be leaving.

In the first half of the 20th century, it took massive wars and famine to get immigrants into Canada – and these folks were white, had the same religion, and were culturally similar to Canadians at the time! Uprooting is tough, and anyone considering it evidently needs an outstanding reason to do so.

If Indians and Chinese stay home, that pretty much leaves the Middle East and Africa where we can expect that many Citizens will want to gtfo for a long while yet. The folks exiting same destined for Canada will not have the big enclaves, the language skills, or the education of the Indians and Chinese we mostly get now. These folks will have a near zero chance of making much money. They will likely not reproduce much either.

Then there’s this:

“Some 35 per cent of male immigrants to Canada return home, many within the first year.”

https://www.thestar.com/news/immigration/2016/06/02/gloomier-future-seen-for-canadian-immigration.html

And This:

“They are not lining up,” said Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist at CIBC World Markets. “We’ve got to wake up to this realization.”

https://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/dont-count-on-future-immigrants-for-economic-growth

On top of that – developing Nations are working harder than ever to retain their talent – they will eventually succeed in keeping them (they have no choice). “The economic centre of gravity shifts ever eastward. So too do the best career options”.

I think things are going to get tougher and tougher as the decades pass.

#194 Crazyfox on 11.23.18 at 1:35 pm

Couldn’t resist another fine piece from Garth to comment on.

As far as Trump goes, it doesn’t matter what he says, its what he does. His words are meaningless, having lost all credibility. So what has he done? Deregulate and by doing so, weaken the systems long term for a start. Trump is Mr. inflation for a reason, lets not forget. He’s started a highly inflationary trade war with China with numbers kicking in hard in Q1 and Q2, the fed is running a highly inflationary trillion dollar deficit even after tariffs thanks to him. Forget about what he says, is what he does. He’s trying to create a bogeyman for future blame, its blowhard noise, forget what he says… sort of.

General consensus is that the economy will slow but gradually and employment to remain high. GDP expanded at 3.5% in Q3 and 3.5% for the year which is sweet for an economy of this scale. This by itself is enough for the fed to raise rates regardless of what oil does. Forget about oil for now, its the least of U.S. worries, they are a net importer, its a good thing that it falls. What will inflation do? If these numbers can be trusted:

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi

October inflation is running at 2.5%, a full percentage point below GDP but above 2%, another reason to raise rates. So up she goes at the end of the year to 3%, of this I have no doubt.

The numbers from the trade war with China will start hitting as retailers restock the shelves in Q4. Q1 and Q2 will see further inflationary pressure from China and indications are inflation will rise by a full percentage point by the end of June from this alone meaning inflation will be around 3.5… 4% by the end of Q2. Yes, it will be that high. If GDP shrinks to 2.5% by this time and I expect it to, especially if employment stays strong the fed will still have to react and raise rates. The U.S. budget numbers will come in Q2 and will surprise I believe, coming in larger than expected around 1.1 trillion meaning more inflation and the grown ups are in charge in congress now meaning there will be an actual annual budget, it all factors in.

Now… the big question is what happens to the U.S. dollar and I predict the U.S. dollar will weaken as the stock market continues to unwind meaning, you guessed it, more inflation and it will slow the economy with more losers than winners. I see the fed forced to react to a weaker dollar & inflation until it becomes transparent that raising rates will no longer support the dollar and they will let it fall oh… around Q4.

Again I see the fed ending Q4 at 3%, Q1 at 3.25, Q2 at 3.75% (yup a .5% gain as Chinese and budget numbers come in), Q3 at 4% and Q4 at 4.25%, possibly even 4.5% because of, more than any other reason, dollar support but beyond that, I believe the fed will just let it fall.

As for a U.S. recession, this Chinese trade war is predicted to slow world GDP growth by .5% and I think its accurate but how long will it last… I think U.S. congress will put an end to it in Q3 and whether Trump gets impeached or not this late in the game won’t change things much, its still a Republican WH… but an end to trade wars will make a difference. Still, I think higher rates and most importantly a weakened dollar will see the U.S. slide into recession in Q1 or Q2 and rates will come down but the damage is already done in Canada. A 3.75 – 4% fed rate for Canada to borrow on will spin Canada into a recession in Q3 I should think, it will be real estate driven caused by 10 long years of 2% or less here at home, it will be long and nasty and last until 2021.

As for business tax cuts in Canada, The Libs have no choice. They support business and run red ink or risk losing the next election of which, lets remember, the Harper gov ran up $170 billion from 08′ to 2015 averaging $ 21 billion or so annually during these last 8 years. $20 billion is evil under these circumstances, I don’t buy it unless you are partisan, $20 billion dollar deficits have become too normalized, shall we say. Not saying that’s a good thing, its just what the numbers say. Now if it was $40 or $50 billion, that would be bad and I am predicting a Canadian recession next year as a result of rising rates chopping high priced RE at the knees so $40 could happen, we shall see.

But what do I know? I’m just an armchair economist! I still think our loonie is cooked. That’s what my tea leaves came up with anyhow, each and every time I think on it.

#195 Guy in Calgary on 11.23.18 at 1:56 pm

By the time I was finished perusing the comments I legitimately forgot what the original post was about.

What I learned today: climate change is a farce, deadbolt your doors in Salmon Arm, immigration is a touchy subject and the market is going to crash.

Thank you everyone.

#196 Crazyfox on 11.23.18 at 1:59 pm

Thanks btw for the comic relief and distraction, Garth. Economics is sometimes dry. Trudeau’s mug coupled with the Japanese example on immigration is too good for some to resist. :)

Immigrant haters are really out today. Always blaming everyone, always the victim, poor sops. “Its the immigrant’s fault for my problems” and if we didn’t immigrate they would say, “Oh, my house isn’t worth much, too many vacancies, my homies aren’t making babies because of no jobs and money and low sperm counts and such”, all they will ever do is complain with or without, creating a bogeyman to blame. I have to chuckle, poor sops, hard times for them. :)

#197 NO, i didn't on 11.23.18 at 2:15 pm

Combine this with a rebound in oil prices (if it comes) and you will be so happy that you overweighted Canadian equities when they were, like me, cheap and unloved. You did that, right?

………

down again. Why overweight a chronic under-performer?

rebound in oil prices? Garth, you mush everything?

You can wait and buy high. That sound smart. – Garth

#198 bro on 11.23.18 at 2:23 pm

“But let’s look at the opposite for a minute. Without immigrants Canada’s population would age and decrease over time. Just a statistical fact. Like climate change. Actually we have a great example of an advanced industrialized nation which has maintained closed borders and is now paying the price.”

wow 2 lies in one paragraph. keep it up.

#199 Stone walker on 11.23.18 at 2:30 pm

#181 Wrk.dover – Thanks for the advice, I’ll make sure I use proper punctuation and spacing from now on

Like

This

LOL

#188 Soggyshorts – More good, unanswered questions. Another one I wonder about is; How long has the antarctic ice sheet been covering the continent? Ice cores have been cut that are said to prove it’s very old, and likely has stayed frozen through many climate cycles, but it’s been melting at an exponential rate over the last 40-50 years. I wonder why it hasn’t melted in the past climate cycles, since the temps were as high or higher and CO2 emissions were higher in the past, at least according to deniers. What’s different this time?

#192 IHCTD9 – Is the power shifting back from West to East, as the 500 year cycle shows? Britain isn’t much of an empire anymore and the US looks like it’s in the twilight of it’s reign. Once the USD loses reserve status, that’s it for their hegemony. All those dollars they’ve exported over the years are coming home, this is going to be interesting

#200 Lisa on 11.23.18 at 2:44 pm

Hi, Garth. I just wanted to thank you for this pathetic but fabulous blog. You’re doing a hell of a job. Please keep it up. My brain isn’t full yet. Happy Friday!!

#201 James on 11.23.18 at 2:52 pm

#193 Crazyfox on 11.23.18 at 1:35 pm

Couldn’t resist another fine piece from Garth to comment on.

As far as Trump goes, it doesn’t matter what he says, its what he does. His words are meaningless, having lost all credibility. So what has he done? Deregulate and by doing so, weaken the systems long term for a start. Trump is Mr. inflation for a reason, lets not forget. He’s started a highly inflationary trade war with China with numbers kicking in hard in Q1 and Q2, the fed is running a highly inflationary trillion dollar deficit even after tariffs thanks to him. Forget about what he says, is what he does. He’s trying to create a bogeyman for future blame, its blowhard noise, forget what he says… sort of.

General consensus is that the economy will slow but gradually and employment to remain high. GDP expanded at 3.5% in Q3 and 3.5% for the year which is sweet for an economy of this scale. This by itself is enough for the fed to raise rates regardless of what oil does. Forget about oil for now, its the least of U.S. worries, they are a net importer, its a good thing that it falls. What will inflation do? If these numbers can be trusted:

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi

October inflation is running at 2.5%, a full percentage point below GDP but above 2%, another reason to raise rates. So up she goes at the end of the year to 3%, of this I have no doubt.

The numbers from the trade war with China will start hitting as retailers restock the shelves in Q4. Q1 and Q2 will see further inflationary pressure from China and indications are inflation will rise by a full percentage point by the end of June from this alone meaning inflation will be around 3.5… 4% by the end of Q2. Yes, it will be that high. If GDP shrinks to 2.5% by this time and I expect it to, especially if employment stays strong the fed will still have to react and raise rates. The U.S. budget numbers will come in Q2 and will surprise I believe, coming in larger than expected around 1.1 trillion meaning more inflation and the grown ups are in charge in congress now meaning there will be an actual annual budget, it all factors in.

Now… the big question is what happens to the U.S. dollar and I predict the U.S. dollar will weaken as the stock market continues to unwind meaning, you guessed it, more inflation and it will slow the economy with more losers than winners. I see the fed forced to react to a weaker dollar & inflation until it becomes transparent that raising rates will no longer support the dollar and they will let it fall oh… around Q4.

Again I see the fed ending Q4 at 3%, Q1 at 3.25, Q2 at 3.75% (yup a .5% gain as Chinese and budget numbers come in), Q3 at 4% and Q4 at 4.25%, possibly even 4.5% because of, more than any other reason, dollar support but beyond that, I believe the fed will just let it fall.

As for a U.S. recession, this Chinese trade war is predicted to slow world GDP growth by .5% and I think its accurate but how long will it last… I think U.S. congress will put an end to it in Q3 and whether Trump gets impeached or not this late in the game won’t change things much, its still a Republican WH… but an end to trade wars will make a difference. Still, I think higher rates and most importantly a weakened dollar will see the U.S. slide into recession in Q1 or Q2 and rates will come down but the damage is already done in Canada. A 3.75 – 4% fed rate for Canada to borrow on will spin Canada into a recession in Q3 I should think, it will be real estate driven caused by 10 long years of 2% or less here at home, it will be long and nasty and last until 2021.

As for business tax cuts in Canada, The Libs have no choice. They support business and run red ink or risk losing the next election of which, lets remember, the Harper gov ran up $170 billion from 08′ to 2015 averaging $ 21 billion or so annually during these last 8 years. $20 billion is evil under these circumstances, I don’t buy it unless you are partisan, $20 billion dollar deficits have become too normalized, shall we say. Not saying that’s a good thing, its just what the numbers say. Now if it was $40 or $50 billion, that would be bad and I am predicting a Canadian recession next year as a result of rising rates chopping high priced RE at the knees so $40 could happen, we shall see.

But what do I know? I’m just an armchair economist! I still think our loonie is cooked. That’s what my tea leaves came up with anyhow, each and every time I think on it.
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OK that stole my thunder!
But it does matter what he says because others can react and do it for him. He is a mob boss, the Don doesn’t do the dirty work he is the capo di tutti capi (boss of all bosses). His base is blindly caught up in the Make America Great Again bull$hit. They are too ignorant to see that the average Joe factory jobs have sailed and that boat is not coming back. Ever!

#202 AGuyInVancouver on 11.23.18 at 3:01 pm

#178 For those about to flop… on 11.23.18 at 11:26 am
Pink Pumpkins being carved in Vancouver.

Here’s another heavy hitter on the Westside in trouble.

One of hundreds, if not thousands.

I just showed you some big losses on Puget and these guys are heading down the same path.

The details…

4086 w 13th ave Vancouver.

Paid 4.5 June 2016

Originally asking 5.89

Now asking 3.68

Assessment 3.89

Shaping up as another million plus loss after expenses..
_ _ _
It would be interesting to know who the owners is: A spec builder? A lot flipper? Or offshore buyer? It would definitely help give context as to who is being forced to bail out of the market.

#203 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.23.18 at 3:23 pm

@#194 Guy in Cowtown
“Thank you everyone.”

+++++

Glad we could help

#204 Dave Ahem on 11.23.18 at 3:34 pm

My grandparents came from Poland and Italy in the 50’s. Neither side spoke a lick of English. Their kids learned it when they started school and taught a little to their parents. They lived in areas that were exclusively Polish and Italian in Etobicoke. They worked in trades or places where English was not spoken and only spent time with their own culture. The women didn’t work at all and rarely left the house.

If you met their kids, my parents, you would have no clue they are immigrants. No flags on their cars pining for the “old country”. No accents either. Just two Canadians who worked their a$$es off, had 2 kids who are gainfully employed, tax paying parents as well. They bowl and watch Netflix. They eat burgers and chicken wings. They fled the Nazi’s and communism and the Mafia to be here so I guess you could say there were seeking asylum too? Look at us now! It took less than 1 generation for us to become fully Canadian.

I’m pretty sure that’s still the dream regardless of where people are coming from.

#205 KLNR on 11.23.18 at 4:54 pm

@#42 Newcomer on 11.22.18 at 6:32 pm
I have lived in Japan for big chunks of my life and visit often. The pros of falling population in Japan are that it is cheap. Houses are cheap, things like clothing are cheap, and you can find good food at low prices, especially in sinking neighborhoods. The cons are that it’s depressing. People sit around staring at the walls. Boarded up shops and houses are an eyesore and bring a sense of despair. If you like vitality, it’s a turnoff.

It’s also the future. We have already passed global peak child. Falling death rates mean that the global population will continue to grow for another twenty years or so. But the days of economic growth based on demographic growth are numbered. Canada has been keeping its growth rate steady at about 1% per year by increasing immigration. The longer we are able to do that, the better. As poor nations become richer and population pressure decreases, the future of cold, mostly empty countries like Canada and Russia doesn’t look that great.
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on a less doomer note, at least we have a substantial portion of the remaining fresh water on the planet.

#206 KLNR on 11.23.18 at 5:09 pm

@#158 akashic record on 11.23.18 at 7:25 am
We have never had ‘uncontrolled immigration.’ – Garth

Canada as a country was created by immigration the natives could not control.

Do Japanese people have the right to decide what level of immigration they want?

Should they decide or others should decide for them?

Can Japan, the Japanese people be called “racist, xenophobe” because their preference about immigration?

Is implying or calling them out as “racist, xenophobe” in order to change their practice a collective bullying?

Someone pee in your cereal today? Japan is merely an example of demographic inevitability. – Garth
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god I hope someone did that to his cereal. if anybody deserves that it’s this guy.

#207 Gotta Get Out of Calgary on 11.23.18 at 10:52 pm

#72 Mr. Spellcheck on 11.22.18 at 7:46 pm

Who is Mr. Socks? Lol

_______________________________________

Justin Trudeau

#208 Gravy Train on 11.24.18 at 6:09 am

#82 Shawn Allen on 11.22.18 at 8:23 pm
“Clearly the marketing guy was not in the room when the scientists said let’s warn people about “Anthropologically-caused Climate Change” Anthro who?” It’s easier, and more accurate, just to write anthropogenic climate change. N’est-ce pas? :)

#209 rc99ar on 11.24.18 at 4:31 pm

Japan’s public debt is misleading. The BOJ is a vast holder, more so than the other central banks. If your own central bank and government institutions hold most of the nations debt, and that debt is serviced in your own currency, does it really exist? US debt is held around the world, not so for Japan. They could sell it in the future to slow an overheated economy, but that prospect seems a long way off.

#210 Prince Polo on 11.25.18 at 8:29 am

#84 sharon in salmon arm on 11.22.18 at 8:24 pm
[blah, blah, blah]

Note to readers: this post was not deleted to give you a taste of the ones that are. God help us. – Garth

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You are still my hero, Garth!

Would you consider hiring an assistant editor-in-chief for the deplorables (comments) section? Of course, you will have to test my level of snark. :)

#211 mikeybags on 11.26.18 at 3:04 pm

Hi Garth
Im from the entitled city of vancouver and as much as i agree with you about needing immigration as my family immigrated to this country like most of us at some time, don’t you think assimilation needs to be pressed? The lower mainland has become so dense with what in my opinion would be ignorant immigrants who have no want to fit into society but keep there own… look at richmond as a prime example. I know its a touchy subject and after bill c-16 i could be labelled as a racist for saying this but even my chinese friends think its ridiculous. On a similar note did you see todays article about the fentanyl crisis fuelling BC real estate …