If you flog houses for a living, you pray potential buyers will think only about two things. One a little: sales. One a lot – prices. This is how the fiction of a rising or stable market can be maintained, even in the face of facts. You know, just like Baghdad Bob during the Gulf War. Or David Lereah, the realtor ‘chief economist’ who predicted a US housing boom just before a total bust. Or, of course, real estate boards in Toronto or Vancouver.
For example, when sales of houses in Vancouver plunged 34% last month and listings swelled 42%, this was the public message:
“The supply of homes for sale today is beginning to return to levels that we haven’t seen in our market in about four years,” Phil Moore, REBGV president said. “For home buyers, this means you have more selection to choose from.”
Hey, sounds good. Let’s buy!
However the real story of what’s going on comes from the actual behavior of sellers. As supply overwhelms demand not only are sales declining relative to total inventory, but vendors are forced to reset expectations as buyers retreat from a wall of fear. In one word it means this: relistings.
To date the big real estate boards continue to blind buyers to price reductions. In some place you will see DOM (days on market) showing how long a property has sat at its current price. But rarely is CDOM (cumulative days on market) visible. In other words, most buyers have no idea if a property has been reduced, how often, when or by how much unless an agent is working for them, pulling data. It’s planned obfuscation. It’s like Baghdad Bob who declared of the enemy, while his regime was being pulverized by the Yanks, “Our initial assessment is that they will all die.”
So here is a picture of what’s actually going on. The site ‘myrealtycheck.ca’ tracks relistings in YVR, of which there have been a fat 2,285 so far in November. The red arrows are price reductions. The blue ones (if you can find any) are price increases.
This is how a bull housing market dies – by a thousand cuts as retreating buyers force sellers to reprice their product. You can see why the real estate establishment would rather have folks concentrate on sticky prices (the average is still extreme) and ‘increased choice’, rather than the downward momentum clearly at play.
Just to reinforce the trends, here is a summary of the price cuts/hike in urban Metro Vancouver. If you like falling knives, this is your moment.
A year ago this pathetic blog told you to sell your Bitcoins, cut up the crypto-buying credit cards of your moister children then tune out the blatherings about it being ‘different this time’ and that an asset backed by faery poop could be worth a fortune. And here we are. It’s all going down.
Bitcoin, the digital nothingness Ponzi scheme, has lost a third of its value in a week. From closing in on $20,000 a unit a year ago it is $4,000 and change as I write this. Panic selling has set in. There is no bottom except, maybe, zero. Seven hundred billion, pissed away.
This is worse that the collapse of gold and silver decades ago. It beats the 80% plunge in technology stocks after the dot-com mania. It’s far steeper than the slide in equities during the credit crisis. And it’s made all the worse for two big reasons: (a) billions in Bitcoins were purchased through dodgy exchanges by young gullibles who put them on plastic with 19% owning on unpaid balances and (b) there’s nothing here. Nada. No hunks of metal. No operating companies. No real estate or hard assets of any kind. No cash flow. On interest or dividends. No distributions. No power to tax. And mounting evidence the insane escalation during 2017 was the result (at least in part) of rank market manipulation.
That’s what authorities think. Last week the American SEC announced penalties against two crypto outfits. The US Justice department is investigating trading fraud. The European Central Bank (ECB) calls Bitcoin “the evil spawn of the financial crisis. The Bank for International Settlements has said cryptos are “in a nutshell, a bubble, a Ponzi scheme and an environmental disaster.”
There should be no surprise here. Blockchain technology is a breakthrough, and already being incorporated into systems and processes globally. But using is to cook up a ‘currency’ in a process that consumes enough electricity to light up a country, is inherently unstable, subject to theft, hacks and fraud, is regulated by nobody and can never be a medium of exchange, therefore buying nothing, is beyond stupid.
Thank God we now have vaping and legal weed. Way more productive.
148 comments ↓
CONFIRMED PINK SNOW.
Condo edition.
Confirmation of this condo flip gone wrong, that one of my regulars A.B was good enough to show the result in real time, has now worked its way through the system.
The details…
2201 – 867 Hamilton Street, Vancouver,
Paid 1.23 April 2018
Sold 1.10 September 2018
Asking 1.18
Assessment 1.00
So they were in by April out by September and my notes suggest they never asked close to what they put in after realizing they overpaid by a vast amount.
Just sloppy all round.
Does anyone think a high net worth individual is doing this sort of thing?
Nah, this reeks of amateur hour at the local comedy club.
They incinerated nearly 16% after expenses, or roughly a 200k boot to the backside…
M44BC
https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/867-hamilton-street/2201
https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAwNDYwRQ==
Subprime Rises: Credit Card Delinquencies Blow Through Financial-Crisis Peak at the 4,705 Smaller US Banks
http://www.investmentwatchblog.com/subprime-rises-credit-card-delinquencies-blow-through-financial-crisis-peak-at-the-4705-smaller-us-banks/
3rd? Case for the year end rally. Kaput.
central banks are at fault for the messes they created. 2008 market collapse and real estate collapse . bitcoin. nasdaq 2000. canadian housing market today. they are not competent at what they do.
you can’t cut the bank rate to 50 bps and not think there won’t be consequences. you can’t buy $4 trillion in garbage debt like the FED and not think there won’t be consequences. you think that paying out billions in bonuses to bankers after a market melt down would be a good thing. these people needed to go to jail. nothing happened. and so, the roller coaster continues.
you think stock valuations are a reality today? they are not. facebook, amazon, apple, netflix. they are all overvalued by massive amounts. they are priced with rates far below historical norms. you think housing is overvalued? what do you think stock valuations would look like with a 4% fed funds? and a 5% 10 year treasury? no matter what earnings are, prices would collapse.
and if the FED doesn’t raise rates as promised, watch out.
The NASDAQ busted through its trend line. Further decline to around 6,000 all but certain.
That would still leave it absurdly high, mind you.
Garth,
I’ll I want for Christmas is some stability in my preferred share holdings!
The interest rates hikes are over.
I know a few people here had a few choice words to say about my suggestion that the economic data warranted rate cuts at the last BoC meeting. A few weeks later, here we are. The TSX is melting along with the Dow. The housing market is melting down. Oil has lost 30% from when inflation numbers were last calculated. Consumer insolvency numbers are set to explode. And CPI will almost certainly be significantly deflationary in the numbers released later this week.
So I ask simply, “Do you believe me now?”.
Next BoC meeting, almost certainly will be on hold or a rate cut. This entire rate hiking cycle was completely unjustified and is proving to be a policy mistake.
Few comments on Bitcoin.
China’s government is still half-sustaining Bitcoin as aversion and disgust with US dollar grows there , recently fueled by bestseller “Currency Wars” by Song Hongbing (translation to English has been forbidden). Japan is always about innovation and created Bitcoin supporting climate with government strongly supporting it. Bitcoin is here to stay, over 60% of transactions occur in China. The price of it is another story.
Recent BCH coin (that stemmed from BTC) hard fork wars (one blockchain fighting with the other) created massing dumping of those assets and were detrimental to the entire crypto market.
Be it as it may, there are entire conglomerates and joint-ventures of various financial institutions developing software applications as we speak to benefit from blockchain technology.
Russia China and many other countries want US dollar domination to end, quantitative easing and printing US dollars out of thin air does not help this scenario either.
Some exchanges offer BTC for 4.1K, some for 5 K, volatility is extreme, easy to profit from it now, just by hedging positions on multiple exchanges.
Benefit of it? All tax free. If you are not too late.
The Auditor General says not all taxpayers are treated the same. Who said life was fair?
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/how-cra-treats-you-depends-on-where-you-live-auditor-reports-1.1171106
“The agency is allowed to waive fees and penalties in some cases when imposing them would cause a taxpayer extreme hardship”
So when the CRA agent investigating your basement rental or condo flip checks your bank account and finds out and you have money, expect no mercy.
Wise words from the other day about trying to catch a falling knife
-How does something lose 90% of its value?
First it drops 80% and then falls 50%.
Global markets sink again as tech and retail stocks drop
Facebook
Twitter
Mounting losses for big tech companies put U.S. markets back in the red for the year
The Associated Press · Posted: Nov 20, 2018 11:09 AM ET | Last Updated: 5 hours ago
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/markets-drop-1.4912854
Actually buyers can see all that info like CDOM and what properties sold for and when on sites like Housesigma.
Something I’ve noticed more and more are conditional offers and some of those conditional offers falling through.
Huh I woke up this morning and apparently the world is still in a wretched state – SHOCKED – is it just me or is the world truly spiralling out of control
RATM
Garth likes to talk about bubbles and ponzis. Crypto and weed. What about the stock and bond markets i.e. the indicies? The reason these other things have taken off and subsequently bubbled and crashed is a huge amount of young people havent believed in the mainstream financial markets since 2008. And it’s been crashing again for weeks now. As has housing, for months. The only bright light i can see is rates are finally going up. Maybe this next generation can just sock away their life savings in gics within tax sheltered accounts and call it a day. Let the rich gamble on literally everything else because nothing is a safe investment for almost 20 years now (a lifetime for anyone 40 and younger today).
US equities are not ‘crashing’ but correcting in a healthy way after sitting at historic highs for a long time. Just change your diaper and relax. – Garth
Homes in my neighbourhood are not selling. 1 particulate (vacant) house has switched realtors 3 times, each time the sign on the lawn states that it’s a “new listing”, however no downward price adjustment.
Vaping and legal weed for the win!
Legal weed has got to be more productive than jailing people and destroying their lives for using weed (which practically everyone I know, except for a literal handful of people) has done.
Illegal weed is just stupid. Why give criminal networks so much money? Why make basically everyone a law breaker?
It’s idiocy.
Which is what we’re here to talk about.
But not criminal idiocy, so I’ll stop.
Again, yay legal weed. Long may Canucks be able to inebriate themselves without fear of a stint in the slammer.
I cant handle the truth. Where’s my safe space?
CPD down 2.2 percent today. It’s tough to have patience with this asset class sometimes.
I do not understand the “BTC is not going anywhere” argument.
Like sure, it isn’t going anywhere, but that alone does not mean it should cost $5000USD per coin. Weak argument.
Was in Vegas last 5 days. Got a good idea of what the fallout of an economic crisis looks like on the drive between the main strip and the classic old vegas… holy.
#7 Eleven on 11.20.18 at 4:50 pm
The interest rates hikes are over.
– – –
Hmm, given that the BoC has just said it is re-examining it’s overwhelming focus on fighting inflation, don’t be too sure of that.
https://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/bank-of-canada-plans-thorough-review-of-inflation-targeting
trumps administration lying? say it ain’t so
A federal judge ordered the Trump administration on Tuesday to release Iraqis facing deportation who have been detained for more than six months, slamming the government for making false claims in order to justify keeping the Iraqis in detention
…Goldsmith concluded his decision by highlighting the human cost of the government’s deception. “Families have been shattered,” he wrote. He added that the harm to “people who are ostensibly not being punished for criminal activity” is “intolerable and ongoing.”
https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2018/11/judge-orders-trump-administration-to-release-iraqis-after-it-made-false-claims/
“Blockchain technology is a breakthrough, and already being incorporated into systems and processes globally.
Lemme know if anything comes of that, aside from some temporarily pumped stock prices. I bet Larry Ellison wishes HE invented the steam powered database. The rest of us will get by just fine with centralized databases and the usual legal system to decide and enforce ownership of assets. Don’t go trading your cow for magic beans.
However the real story of what’s going on comes from the actual behavior of sellers. As supply overwhelms demand not only are sales declining relative to total inventory, but vendors are forced to reset expectations as buyers retreat from a wall of fear. In one word it means this: re-listings.
the real story is BC real estate is not worth that much.
A year ago this pathetic blog told you to sell your Bitcoins, cut up the crypto-buying credit cards of your moister children then tune out the blatherings about it being ‘different this time’ and that an asset backed by faery poop could be worth a fortune. And here we are. It’s all going down.
I still think this is funny:
Bitcoin Guy:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lQegMA_kY9Y
James # 178
#173 Blacksheep on 11.20.18 at 2:37 pm
Hillary C:
Was the Head of the State Department and 4th, in ‘The line of succession’, of the US Gov. Meaning if a certain three people died, she would be running the country.
Ivanka T:
Is the head of planning family dinners, put in the W.H. playing a token role to appease the Donald. It does not matter if every single person in the Legislative, Executive and Judicial branches were to die, Ivanka is still a unelected nobody, with zero power.
Yes, of course Ivanka F-ed up with the handling of her emails, (specially after Don’s rants) but comparing the two situations as equal (in power and consequence) is completely ridiculous.
—————————————————-
“If the shoe was on the other foot the Republicans would be screaming bloody murder.”
Of course they would, they’re politian’s man, doesn’t mean one has to regurgitate their rhetoric.
—————————————————–
“She broke it, end of discussion!”
I guess it is, if your unable to offer a tangible argument.
—————————————————–
“If you rear end a car at 5km per hour or 50 km per hour obviously there is potential for greater damage at 50km per hour, however it is still your fault as the driver that rear ended the other driver. The law does not state its OK to have a little accident with no repercussions.”
That is the most irrelevant comeback I’ve heard in a long time, surely you can do better.
——————————————————
“So from your tone can I surmise your a amoureux de Trump ?”
I was referencing your nonsensical comparison between Ivanka & Hillary. Sorry, your off topic distraction didn’t work, try again.
The irony of Ivanka’s actions is not lost on me, I just don’t the buy comparison of equal wrong doing or the potential severity of consequences, do to said missdeeds.
#125 Tater on 11.20.18 at 7:45 am
#21 SoggyShorts on 11.19.18 at 6:19 pm
#107 Tater on 11.19.18 at 8:11 am
#48 SoggyShorts on 11.18.18 at 5:45 pm
you don’t know enough about markets to be investing your own money.
***************************
Ummm that’s why I’m asking questions? If I knew everything why the hell would I ask?
Do you also make fun of the fat guy at the gym? That’s why here’s there.
—————————————————————–
You bought an ETF and to value it you only need to know 2 pieces of information. And you didn’t know one of them.
You should have known this BEFORE investing. It was dumb, own it and learn from it.
*****************************
Where did I say I bought anything?
Hint: I didn’t, because I haven’t even opened a questrade account yet.
I am in fact doing research before doinganything and you are just being a prick.
This will not age well. Agreed as far as crypto being dead, but incorrect to lump bitcoin in with the rest of them. Blockchain not bitcoin is equivalent to saying email not internet.
https://nakamotoinstitute.org/the-skeptics/
Look forward to your humble post when you’re off zero. Keep up the great work otherwise.
Dow 30, s&p 500, tsx are negative for the year. Down between 8-10% from their highs. CPD is way down depite rising rates. Most advise staying away from bonds. Emerging market stocks are in the tank worse than ours. Forecast are for economic slowdowns next year lower than 2% growth. Trade wars. Rates are rising. Low unemplymentbrates in the states are now a grag on economic performance.
#17 The Wet One on 11.20.18
Jailing and charging people for weed smoking was (and should still be) the right thing to do because doing weed was (and should still be) breaking the law.
Only drug addicts use weed. I don’t care about who you know and who you don’t.
I don’t smoke and tons of my friends don’t either.
Don’t try to normalize this garbage behaviour.
MF
Blacksheep on 11.20.18
Love Ivanka. Couldn’t care less about the email non-story.
SHE should run for president and be the first woman president (seriously).
MF
Birmingham Real-Time News
EPA administrator, former environmental commissioner booked into jail
Updated Nov 15; Posted Nov 15
In honor of Scott Pruitt and Trey Glenn’s ethics issues, the EPA will now be known as the PPA, “Polluter Protection Agency”.
The scandal stems from an effort by the Alabama-based Drummond Coal company to block an EPA effort, overseen by Region 4, to clean up the 35th Avenue neighborhood, a badly polluted, mostly African-American community in north Birmingham. Under the Obama administration, the EPA identified a group of companies as potentially liable for the neighborhood’s polluted state—and potentially on the hook for a costly cleanup. But a major cleanup of the site never happened, in part thanks to a massive pushback from state officials. That pushback, it turns out, was orchestrated by Drummond and attorneys from the Birmingham law firm Balch & Bingham
===========
Jeff Sessions Is in Charge of a Bribery Prosecution Involving Two of His Top Donors
Talk about a conflict of interest.
Russ Choma and Nick SchwellenbachOctober 25, 2017 6:00 AM
According to prosecutors, Robinson signed a secret contract with Balch & Bingham, agreeing that his eponymous foundation, originally set up to run an annual “Black Achievers Awards Gala” and publish a magazine about community investment, would not engage in work opposing anything involving Balch & Bingham’s clients. Robinson was instructed by Gilbert and McKinney to surreptitiously record meetings with EPA officials and activists and to send letters ghostwritten by Balch attorneys on official stationary, according to the indictments the Justice Department handed down in September. Balch attorneys, the indictments allege, set up a tax-exempt organization called the Alliance for Jobs and the Economy in order to funnel donations from Drummond and other unnamed companies to Robinson’s nonprofit, which employed several family members.
https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2017/10/jeff-sessions-is-in-charge-of-a-bribery-prosecution-involving-two-of-his-top-donors/
@#30 MF on 11.20.18 at 6:25 pm
#17 The Wet One on 11.20.18
Jailing and charging people for weed smoking was (and should still be) the right thing to do because doing weed was (and should still be) breaking the law.
Only drug addicts use weed. I don’t care about who you know and who you don’t.
I don’t smoke and tons of my friends don’t either.
Don’t try to normalize this garbage behaviour.
MF
____________________________
I enjoy most of your comments but your stance on weed is an over-the-top absurd generalization. Is it satire maybe? lol
Re Bitcoin – Not sure where it goes but why dont you show the first 4 – 5 years of amazon for a comparison.
Up to $107+ then down to under $7 then …. well you know the answer.
Amazon does something. – Garth
Re: #5 Howard on 11.20.18 at 4:42 pm
That market doesn’t matter, Trump will never allow the DOW to drop below the 22,500 level (close) before the year 2021.
#9 Property Accountant
Some exchanges offer BTC for 4.1K, some for 5 K, volatility is extreme, easy to profit from it now, just by hedging positions on multiple exchanges.
Benefit of it? All tax free. If you are not too late.
—————————————————————
Not according to CRA it ain’t free.
https://business.financialpost.com/technology/blockchain/if-you-sold-or-used-bitcoin-last-year-the-cra-needs-to-collect-its-due
Race to a million.
Richmond edition.
I’ve recently been showing how detached houses in East Van,Richmond and Burnaby are selling below a million.
Realtors around Vancouver are currently fundraising for a poisoned sponge cake to sent to my house to reward these efforts.
Some of these houses have been half decent, others awaiting a date with a bulldozer.
This one in Richmond is fully renovated and was built in the mid 80s,back when guys thought they were cool wearing pink and lemon pastel sweaters.
The details…
12331 Greenland Dr,Richmond.
Originally asking 1.33
Now Asking 999k
Assessment 1.25
Zealty is showing a sale of 1.07 in March of this year,so I could have ran this as a Pumpkin post but saw no evidence of this on Rew Insights.
Could be the database is not yet updated as I still have some cases from the first half of this year to be confirmed as well.
So like I’ve said, you are not spoiled for choice under a million, but if you look around you will find the odd nugget and other buyers are waiting it out.
By the looks of it, competition is so 2016…
M44BC
2018-09-10 : $1,338,000
2018-11-13 : $999,000
https://www.zolo.ca/richmond-real-estate/12331-greenland-drive
https://www.rew.ca/properties/R2322017/12331-greenland-drive-richmond-bc
Well MF,
We live in a democracy. Most people don’t agree with you.
Weed is a far less harmful drug than alcohol, which is perfectly legal.
There’s no sense whatsoever in weed being illegal and alcohol being legal.
Most people agree with me, and accordingly, per democracy, weed is no longer illegal. It took a long while, but it’s the right move.
It’s a waste of time and resources and too much money given to bad actors to have weed illegal. It’s time for the stupidity to end.
I don’t use weed either. I’ve never seen the point. That being said, I don’t see the point in it being illegal either. That makes no sense.
Thankfully, finally someone has seen the folly of criminalizing weed and undone the folly. It’s a better Canada as a result.
I have difficulty distinguishing the difference among a bust, correction and rout. Except in Alberta. Definitely a rout. Full on “donnybrook” in hockey lingo.
#25 45north on 11.20.18 at 6:08 pm
Bitcoin guy.
———————————————————–
That is very funny. Reminded me so much of my sons buddy who has lost thousands playing the penny stocks. Even talks and looks like him.
Median house prices are still 10-11 times the median income. Where are the buyers who can afford even the reduced prices on offer?
@#31 MF
“Love Ivanka. Couldn’t care less about the email non-story.
SHE should run for president and be the first woman president (seriously).”
+++++
Well, it would raise the IQ of the Trump Presidency by about 300%…..but that’s still frightfully lower than the average poo flinging chimp…
@#189 Bitter Frank who’s poor.
“All you losers with 6-figures or low-7 figure savings accounts after a life time who think you’ve ‘worked hard’, ‘saved’ and deserve tax breaks are clowns who are supporting policies that prop up the truly rich. Congrats, you’ve traded the majority of your waking hours for a sum on money you’re now too old to appreciate.”
++++++
ahahahahahahahahaha.
Just keep telling yourself your right Frank.
You’ve got it alllllllll figured out.
Enjoy working til you drop dead.
I plan on comfortably retiring in less than 5 years and living off your punitive taxes for another 30 – 50 years……
Thanks buddy!
16 Andrewski on 11.20.18 at 5:28 pm
Homes in my neighbourhood are not selling. 1 particulate (vacant) house has switched realtors 3 times, each time the sign on the lawn states that it’s a “new listing”, however no downward price adjustment.
————————————————————————————————
Well it is a new listing if there was a price adjustment it would say new price. There you go!
I borrowed the following from a comment in a Calgary Herald article. Albertans and free enterprise. 44 years of waste by the PCs.
Oh, to be an oil tycoon (read “welfare case”). We sold our heritage for a “mess of pottage”. Let it all crumble.
Mostly true:
“Intervention in the form of subsidies for business in Alberta is certainly welcome though.
$26 billion to NWUpgrader
$2.6 billion to Keystone XL
$2 billion for upgrading bitumen
$1 billion for petrochemical startups
$1.6 billion average per year in Crown Royalty
Reductions
$1 billion in emerging/marginal plays, MRR RMC carbon cost deductions and other incentive programs
$400 million in CCIR payments for innovation$235 million for OWA
$50 million for Education Property Tax relief resulting from oil and gas linear defaults
$400+ million AIMCO funding nearly insolvent operators ie Calfrac/Perpetual
$250,000 per facility per year for methane emissions reductions
$60-260 billion unsecured liabilities”
Good blog Garth, we are in serious trouble; unfortunately we have a government more interested in spewing there beliefs rather than facing the truth.
Never trusted bitcoin but the technology behind it; blockchain is something not to be ignored.
Please stop encouraging “Felix” with these feline pics to once again remind us on how he/she thinks that felines are superior; this is a dawg blog! Bandit is the boss. :)
#27 SoggyShorts on 11.20.18 at 6:12 pm
#125 Tater on 11.20.18 at 7:45 am
#21 SoggyShorts on 11.19.18 at 6:19 pm
OK gentlemen, time to stop! Both of you often have interesting insights, and I appreciate your input. Please keep it light.
May 20,2018 the TSX hit 15,000 and closed at 14,877 today. I ‘ve heard several portfolio managers saying recently that now is the time to start buying the index again ? One thing is for sure, the bar has been set pretty low.
#15 Oilaphant on 11.20.18 at 5:27 pm
Maybe this next generation can just sock away their life savings in gics within tax sheltered accounts and call it a day.
This has never and never will be an effective way to save for retirement. Sure, if you prefer a 40% savings rate, be my guest, but (say if with me with gusto) you will never earn a high rate of return on a safe investment. There is not such thing. The promise of such is the clearest indication of fraud.
Crypto Currency.. Meet Quantum Computing
https://gizmodo.com/blockchain-is-especially-at-risk-for-quantum-attacks-s-1830567357
#51 Bob Dog
Thanks for that link. Very informative but what a shame.
That is unfortunate but I hope that we can agree that the principle behind blockchain is incredible; it is new technology and of course there are many wrinkles to iron out but??????
Given the vast sea of red arrows on chart #1, I find it surprising how many blue arrows actually appear. In just a minute of counting I found more than 20. Either these folks are very optimistic or are hoping that a price increase will bring an offer via reverse psychology (its going up, must be worth buying!!!).
There have recently been predictions Bitcoin will slide another 70% in value from today’s prices. If those predictions come to pass Bitcoin will be trading in the $1,300 range. Quite the smoking crater of an investment for anyone who bought when the price was closing in on $20,000 per coin. Somewhere someone is laughing like a loon as they count up big piles of cash, just before they move it to whatever account or investment vehicle they think will ensure they get to keep it should ‘the law’ come knocking at the door.
very interesting read this evening Garth. thank you for this.
That map graphic bears a strange resemblance to something called a “target token” that were sometimes handed out to Bomber Command crews after a trip.
Guess I just can’t get the word “cratered” out of my head when I think about YVR RE lately…
To all of you who have lost your shirts in bitcoin and are holding on because its gonna take over the world I have one word for you
Tulip
If you honestly believe that the elites and governments will accept competition for currency are gonna let bitcrap survive as a tradeable currency I have some swampland in Florida for sale.
Like all Tulip manias it attracts the weak minded and simple folk with glorious stories are exclusivity.
Tell that to the hundreds of folks who got robbed with a keystroke…
Safe currency?
What a joke
You’ve been had.
Sell before zero
Like all great trades there have to be bagholders
Log chart time!
*snickers*
Was doing a loop around Stanley Park behind a few locals few weeks back. Nice sunny Thursday. Had to walk off that peaked pie lunch.
Husbands were up front talking about how awesome the new Kia Stinger is and how wonderful their new Bengal cat is, and how civilized it is to not have to pick up their steaming pile of poop in public.
Wives were behind talking about how their friend listed a home in Richmond for 1.1M and was happy to close at just under $900k.
Hey Garth, can you do a piece that shows what 900k gets you in Richmond and in some US markets perhaps? You know…for perspective.
>Check the dates and times below. A websearch reveals:
—
https://www.greaterfool.ca/2018/11/19/tax-cops-cometh/
#67 ww1 on 11.19.18 at 8:23 pm
#61 Long-Time Lurker on 08.15.18 at 7:53 pm
Report a tax cheat and earn some coin….
I have done this five times now. The last time was the best. I made $12,500 commis. Well worth seeing all those leased cars hauled off.
https://www.canada.ca/en/revenue-agency/programs/about-canada-revenue-agency-cra/suspected-tax-cheating-in-canada-overview.html
Are you trolling, Mr. Long-Time Lurker?
From your linked page :
“Furthermore, the CRA does not give monetary rewards for information about suspected tax cheating under this program.”
—
https://www.greaterfool.ca/2018/08/15/the-illusionists/
#63 Long-Time Lurker on 08.15.18 at 7:53 pm
#52 Contrary Canadian on 08.14.18 at 9:12 pm
Hey Flop, where you hiding? Did I miss the vacation notice maybe? Haven’t seen you post in a while, hope everything is okay.
>Flop’s got his own blog now. It’s called Pink Snow. Look it up.
—
>So who are you ww1 besides a mud-slinger? Now who would have such a motive?
Why is CPD down around 10% in the last year. The drop has been happening pretty much all year long, not just when markets are falling. And rates have been going up. I thought that preferred shares were supposed to give you protection in a rising rate environment even if stock markets are faling?
I’m wondering if General Electric is going to go under. That was Thomas Edison’s company. I also have an eye on Deutsche Bank.
From the highs:
Dow Industrials -9.2% (Pullback almost in a Correction)
S&P -10.2% (Correction)
Dow Transports -12.1% (Correction)
Nasdaq Composite -15.1% (Correction)
Nasdaq 100 -15.3% (Correction)
Russell 2000 -15.6% (Correction)
It’s during times like these that real wealth is created. If you sold off some of your high flying home runs just 3 to 4 months ago and then added more new money with your sell-off profits and continued to buy more of what you still hold on too even as prices continue to drop………………then you will be rewarded in about 6 to 12 months from now, maybe longer, with a portfolio that will be higher in value than your previous record high in a shorter period of time. To do this you will have to fight against your human nature which is buying when prices keep going up and panic selling when prices keep going down. So ask yourselves the question………………..can I trade against my basic human nature? If you can, then you will make money during this market downturn and if you can’t, then you will continue to repeat the mistakes many investors make time and time again.
Happy Investing and remember the only thing that will possibly go to zero is Bitcoin.
RE prices tripled and quadrupled since this blog came up online.
So $20K-$50K discount on $1mil+ house is hardly a bust.
Just my two cents.
Among the crypto and security experts around the globe, you can hardly find a single one who thinks Bitcoin is any good. This summary by a professor from Berkely sums up quite well why the death of Bitcoin is long overdue. It is sad that regulators have been asleep at the wheel for so long.
https://www1.icsi.berkeley.edu/~nweaver/cryptocurrency_burn.pdf
Our PM gave reasons to legislate was nothing more than pandering to a selective audience for the vote. His reasons were bizarre, because weed before was only available for controlled medical or to the minority few. Now its available to everyone being legal now to buy or grow, that is a disaster in the making for society. Imagine this magic trick of legislating the illegal into legal with a majority government before our very eyes – dangerous.
#113 Frank on 11.20.18 at 12:55 am
So if I live frugally and save while you live paycheck to paycheck (by choice) I should give you some of my money?
Bite me.
——————————-
No, I’m advocating for policies which aren’t in my best interest. And living frugally doesn’t help the economy. Spend more cheapskate, amassing a fortune doesn’t do anyone any good why should society reward you?
******************************
Nonsense. The economy doesn’t miss out because I choose to spend my wealth later instead of spending everything every paycheck. In the end, by the time I’m dead, I will have spent the same, I will have just worked fewer years.
It’s a choice. You can either half-ass it from 20-65 and retire then, or go full tilt, be smarter with your money and retire at 40. I chose the later and I’ll be damned if envious people like you get to penalize me for it now.
Bull market death watch continues…
Day 4 into a 50×150 EMA bearish crossover, sandwiched between the 150 and 200, closer to the 200 now and every spike is seen as an opportunity to get out instead of a reversal to the upside.
If there is no solid reversal by end of this week or early next week, it will be interesting to see how much the gasbag will deflate, no support in sight for another 7-10% drop, which puts the whole market in the bear zone.
Recent sale report.
Have a look at this hot mess in Surrey.
Someone stumps up 2.48 in January 2016
They hold it until July 2018,selling for a big loss to be confirmed at 2.1
In the blink of an eye that person gets in trouble and has it back on in August and it ends up as a court sale for 2.3 just now,to be confirmed.
So down she went and back up she came closer to assessed value.
Who knows if these guys are going to be able to hold on?
Man! This is some crazy stuff, who needs fiction?
This stuff is way better than any stuff the Nicotine Nutjob could come up with…
M44BC
3636 164a st ,Surrey
Recent sales history
Jan 2016 2.48
July 2018 2.1
November 2018 2.3
Assessment 3.08
https://www.zolo.ca/surrey-real-estate/3636-164a-street
Zillow in Canada?!
https://www.zillow.com/homes/vancouver-bc_rb/
@The Real Mark
If the Fed cuts rates the BOC will. The Fed isn’t cutting rates. The BOC will not either. Poloz testified before lawmakers about 3% rates being the new norm. He doesn’t control the Canadian interest rate. The Fed does.
176 IHCTD9 on 11.20.18 at 2:54 pm
#165 Hogtown Harry on 11.20.18 at 1:37 pm
“You think Toronto is great, but what you like about it is presently in spirit form – long dead – the ghost of Toronto decades past.”
Dream on cowboy, dream on. The world’s largest greenbelt (7500 sq km) surrounding Hogtown, the 3rd largest metropolis in North American, financial capital of Canada and not a single millenial I know has left this great city. The hordes you cite are in your wishful thinking. What are these professionals migrating to? Small town Ontario to do what??? Give your head a shake cowboy. Your are blathering utter dribble. Headline: MBA grads are leaving Toronto to set up shop in small town Ontario… You are starting to sound like Stan the Madman Brooks.
#68 For those about to flop…
Apart from reading Bandits wise words oops meant to say Garths, sorry Felix, dawgs rule, Flop. I enjoy your posts, they are an eye opener, thanks.
#113 Another Deckchair on 11.19.18 at 8:41 am
@54 our friend the Jaguar wrote:
I have no other comment other than to say the Jaguar is still basking in the reference from Another Deckchair referring to me as “our friend’.
Yes I am. Proud to be an Albertan. Always.
I wonder if they will do a follow-up article on the vancouver guy that mortgaged his house and put hundreds of thousands into bitcoins and mining i think the newspaper article came out near its peak. ouch!
You didn’t mention Bitcoin’s biggest problem: counterparty risk.
Dependent not only on the vagaries of electricity and the web, Bitcoin trades via commercially-owned “exchanges” which are themselves subject to GOVERNMENT. Edicts, meddling, regulating, taxing, controlling.
Physical gold, held not as a speculation but as long-term value storage, is far superior.
You mean the stuff that’s shed 37% if it’s value in eight years and pays nothing? – Garth
“If you like falling knives, this is your moment.”
——————
I like falling knives but ‘my moment’ is at least 1-2 years away. Meanwhile, I’ll continue nibbling on energy equities.
Has anyone else noticed that, even though oil prices are almost double the 2016 lows, related equites are at, or below, what they were during that time?
I think I’ve already mentioned this previously; it’s like shooting fish in a barrel!
TCC
Totally off topic but hey guys out there, did you know that yesterday Nov 19 was International Mens Day, I did not?? Not a peep out of our feminist P.M.. surprised!
What do you think about this article; I know what my wife and lady friends think about this, and it is not pretty! To be honest, I find it pathetically funny, I feel sorry for her!
Anyways, here it is: https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/hana-shafi/international-mens-day_b_6186484.html
#71 Hogtown Harry
I loved Toronto when I lived there back in the mid 80’s. If you were young, it was a real part city.
As for the rest, it’s just another large North American concrete, glass and steel city with some charms to distinguish it (YVR with its mountains and ocean, 416 the lake – neither water body I would swim in or do they recommend you do).
Still, both are good places to meet someone, have fun in your youth and eke out a living by virtue of the size of the cities (jobs).
There is some method to the madness from other Commenters about the young leaving Toronto for small town Ontario or elsewhere.
From the numbers below it does not seem a groundswell, more of an increasing trend, discontent about the price of housing.
Evidently, some Millennials are just giving up and leaving Toronto (and Vancouver):
May 14, 2018 Huffpost “Millennials Leaving Toronto, Vancouver, Statistics Canada Data Shows.”
Oct. 9, 2018 Globe & Mail “Goodbye Toronto, hello Winnipeg: Are Canada’s young giving up their big city dreams?”
https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2018/05/14/millennials-leaving-toronto-vancouver-statistics-canada-data-shows_a_23434284/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer_us=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLml0Lw&guce_referrer_cs=ofnS_Y2DYxbslo_9OU_8SA
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/personal-finance/household-finances/article-goodbye-toronto-hello-winnipeg-are-canadas-young-giving-up-their/
#71 Hogtown Harry – Gee Harry just hate to pop your bubble, but you guessed wrong. It was not Waterloo, but elsewhere. The modern world of today might be moving a bit too fast for you.
#33 KLNR on 11.20.18 at 6:39 pm
Thanks man.
I guess each of us have topics where we have stronger opinions on, and topics where we don’t care as much.
The weed thing bothers me. I see it as a move that will damage society by encouraging increased drug use. I also saw it as the clear vote buying ploy it was. It was simply taking advantage of people’s addictions, possibly damaging society, for the selfish motive of political power. How weak and immoral.
Also, pardoning people who willingly broke the law sent the wrong message. Those who got caught willingly broke the law and deserved the punishment.
Personally, I’ve never smoked weed. A lot of my friends are the same way. No need. Someone who tries to imply that “everyone” does this drug so he can feel better about himself needed to be told otherwise. We are all not stoners, thanks!
MF
#26 blacksheep… AGREED! The laws DO take into account the damage and severity of the offender… H.C. was far more a risk to her country with her email faux pas than Ivanka, with decades more experience!
#33 KLNR …AGREED! I too was never a “pothead” … would smoke it if I wanted to throw up…(never)… but it does have it’s benefits… we can’t as a society paint all with the same brush (we don’t even do that with a wall)
#42 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.20.18 at 7:13 pm
@#31 MF
“Love Ivanka. Couldn’t care less about the email non-story.
SHE should run for president and be the first woman president (seriously).”
+++++
Well, it would raise the IQ of the Trump Presidency by about 300%…..but that’s still frightfully lower than the average poo flinging chimp…
*********
lol good point…but we all know Oprah is a shoe in for President.
You are not alone in your assessments.
The house price correction would have its largest effects on the Ontario and British Columbia econo- mies, with important direct effects on residential investment; related consumption spending, such as furniture and appliances; and real estate services. The fall in house prices would also lead to negative wealth and collateral effects, which further weigh on consumption spending.
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/san2018-36.pdf
Nov 2018. Bank of Canada
#78 Dolce Vita on 11.20.18 at 10:17 pm
Already posted but I will post again.
https://www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/economy/demographics/projections/#s4f
Insignificant evidence for your claim that people are “leaving Toronto”.
The population has increased consistently for decades and will continue to increase consistently for decades. Inter-provincial migration is a moot point since it is on such a low scale in relation to the overall population inflow it is to be ignored.
Moreover, the proportion of Ontario’s population that lives in the GTA has grown and will continue to grow for the foreseeable future.
If people are leaving to live in the smaller towns, then they are commuting to work or play in the GTA…like people in New Jersey do in New York, or LA, or like they do in any other big city in the world.
Basically no evidence for anything you are saying. No evidence that “Toronto was better before”. That’s just nostalgia, which is an emotional response and not a rational one.
MF
Half the SFH places for sale in the 604 are being re-listed for about 50% – 100% more than what they were bought for in 2015/2016. The reductions you see are people wanting to crystalize their profits. Once the average ask is 10-15% above 2016 levels, then the market will get interesting. Faced with higher interest rates and a potential bottom line loss, it will be the real turning point. Hardly any of those red arrows show a real loss.
Why T2 is not opting out on the UNs compact on miration should tell you everything this traitor is up too. 50 IQ at best.
But it’s soon to be new Billionair Mr butts that’s driving this insanity. I’m think when Soros kicks the bucket. Mr Butts will be Mr big. Bank on It
USA
Israel
Czeck Republic
Estonia
Poland
Austria
Hungary
Croatia
Bulgary
Said NO!!!!!
To millions of migrants swarming urban centers where there is no infrastructure to handle the current population.
Only Mad Max is sheading light on this madness.. He’s got my vote Sorry Gartho.
T2 gets 4 more years to turn Canada into Venezuela, and will be the only thing he succeeds in.
T2 is making a new law to allow non-residence to vote.
Well Thanks T2
C’mon we all know weed was only legalized as a $$ grab for a gov’t that needs as much as it can once the reality of low to no growth kicks in once interest rates return to somewhat normal….as normal as can be expected in 2018.
Everything is over inflated except gold, silver.
Follow the fed….low interest rates, QE = stocks
Higher interest rates, reduced stimulus = anything but stocks….
Watch China as well….
#34 KJ on 11.20.18 at 6:42 pm
Re Bitcoin – Not sure where it goes but why dont you show the first 4 – 5 years of amazon for a comparison.
Up to $107+ then down to under $7 then …. well you know the answer.
Amazon does something. – Garth
———
What value does Amazon add?
No new concept.
Copy Sears.
Selling crap at inflated prices to lazy customers using taxpayers subsidized Canada Post to deliver said crap.
Imperfect inflation target may need overhaul: Bank of Canada
BARRIE MCKENNA ECONOMICS REPORTER
PUBLISHED NOVEMBER 20, 2018
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-imperfect-inflation-target-may-need-overhaul-bank-of-canada/
I guess now that bitcoin and crypto isn’t secure or risk free, it’ll be male dominated. Oh the misogyny as per CBC:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/bitcoin-s-gender-divide-could-be-a-bad-sign-experts-say-1.4458884
Re: Amazone
Before you call me a Luddite here’s my story.
I ordered three items:
two were not even close to what they looked on the website.
The third one was a large parcel which was stolen from my porch after delivery.
I’d rather go to my local Costco, where I can see what I’m buying.
And their return policy is second to none.
Hi Garth
So variable rate mortgages taken in 2015 when BoC was talking negative interest rates. Are those guys paying any principal off with the hikes we’ve had? What does the renewal look like in 2020?
Tom
Hi Garth
Is Cenovus going to default on their bond?
Tom
@#42 Fartz
“the average poo flinging chimp…”
+++++
At the risk of commenting on my own comment…..
Life imitates…….. art?
https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/cyclist-defecates-throws-own-poop-at-woman-after-vehicle-collision-in-b-c
Obviously a frustrated renter from Surrey….errr sorry, Realtor from Surrey.
#8 The Real Mark on 11.20.18 at 4:53 pm
……..Next BoC meeting, almost certainly will be on hold or a rate cut. This entire rate hiking cycle was completely unjustified and is proving to be a policy mistake.
___________________________
Not gonna happen no matter what the insolvency numbers, what the TSX or Dow melt to, or if Oil falls to $10. Economy is strong, job numbers good, and markets are only experiencing a small hiccup. Rates are going up for at least another year.
The “policy mistake” was lowering and holding rates to the numbers they were, which triggered household debt to current levels. Zero sympathy for the financial illiterates who will soon burn at the roadside.
#78 Dolce Vita..birn and raised there… ontario lakes and air are revoltingly polluted… no coming back.. moved to hogtown after days at the beach turned horrid. Being overthrown and running in terror from seagulls Jackson’s Point at Lake Simcoe where my daughter got sick.with ecoli poisoning.. and after watching dozens of very young children play in the sand, got up at 5am and serpent’s beach by peterborough had huge machine raking up bird feces so not noticeable to next batch of blind-sided unsuspecting parents… we packed our car by 6am and moved to Calfary within weeks. Clean air and lakes within an hours drive! Can drink the lake water! Who’d have thunk it?
#78… Dolce Vita..birn and raised there… ontario lakes and air are revoltingly polluted… no coming back.. moved to hogtown after days at the beach turned horrid. Being overthrown and running in terror from seagulls Jackson’s Point at Lake Simcoe where my daughter got sick.with ecoli poisoning.. and after watching dozens of very young children play in the sand, got up at 5am and serpent’s beach by peterborough had huge machine raking up bird feces so not noticeable to next batch of blind-sided unsuspecting parents… we packed our car by 6am and moved to Calfary within weeks. Clean air and lakes within an hours drive! Can drink the lake water! Who’d have thunk it?
Re: #86 Matt on 11.19.18 at 9:32 pm
Hey Garth!
If I rent in the city, and own a cottage, can I make the cottage my PR? Technically it’s the only property I would own..
Just a thought…
Matt
++++++++++++++
Read this:
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/personal-finance/taxes/article-making-sense-of-how-the-exemption-on-your-residence-works/
MJ=Freedom
Sorry MF, your ideology is similar to prohibition and all those folks who died for nothing as gangs ruled then.
I drink but I don’t dope and I understand.
US equities are not ‘crashing’ but correcting in a healthy way after sitting at historic highs for a long time. Just change your diaper and relax. – Garth
_________________
Looking at a SP500 chart, I agree with your assessment….to date. But are we done? Personally I dont think so. You replied to another comment the other day something like “we’re not likely to see another 2008 style event in our lifetimes” IIRC. I remember 2008, it started out a lot like the last few weeks has and continued bleeding into January. With Trump, current geopolitics i.e. China and Russia, it could be just as bad and maybe worse. Sorry man, i guess im not as optimistic as you. Unlike in 2008, where i got lucky, this time around im fully invested and hanging on for the ride. Send me a costco pallet of pampers if youre wrong, will ya?
No affiliation at all, I was just looking for a log graph of historic housing prices. Haven’t checked the math, but it looks correct.
https://househuntvictoria.ca/2016/03/17/a-brief-history-of-prices/
average inflation is around 2%, so returns according to this are just under 6%.
Not a bad return since you can’t leverage your returns like this on the equities market.
Only rules are:
1. Have enough money to weather mortgage increases with at the renewal
2. Don’t move
3. Expect the property to be illiquid at some points in time (ie now).
4. Buy the worst house on the street with the best land
Other than that, where else can you get 6% annualized returns on your 500,000 that you never had. ROI on a 10% down payment of 50,000 lets say is quite good.
How come this never gets brought up here?
The core of China’s ‘ Great Leap Forward’ is being gutted.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/21/china-debt-small-firms-have-difficulty-getting-loans-amid-trade-war.html
A collapse of the individual effort that drives China’s economy is directly caused by the Communist Party retreating back behind a wall of state owned Enterprise.
Look at Vancouver s West Side listings ballooning….lists up 41% and prices down 36% . My prediction of a capitulation and dumping of foreign assets by credit strangled Chinese is happening right before our eyes.
This is not isolated to West Side, as many foreign buyers bought multiples of houses in Delta, Maple Ridge, Cloverdale, White Rock and Coquitlam. The suburbs were like a 3 for 1 sale on price comparables. Now thousands of multiple property owners who are not Canadian are forced to dump as China’s economy collapses.
There have been many Chinese “shadow bank” call centers busted in Thailand. Shadow Banks aka Loan Sharks, have moved the call centers to SE Asian countries because the collection practises aka kneecappings come with heavy penalties in China. The calls might be made from Bangkok, but the knock on your door is typical “Guido’ style collection, Mafia style.
What many westerners fail to understand was a desperation of Chinese families to smuggle money out of the country, and Canada was a top destination. Now, these same families are getting body slammed by both sides.
These forced sales will drive towards a oanic selling capitulation and eventual exhaustion phase, s long way down from where prices currently sit. Remember, Chinese markets are not underwritten by super pension funds and trillion dollars insurance companies. There is no plunge protection team in China. 70% of China’s stock market is individual retail investor owned. It was designed that way to fund the state owned enterprises that China could not finance itself. Now comes the chaos of acwrak and disorderly market.
#93 Tom from Mississauga on 11.20.18 at 11:41 pm
“Hi Garth,Is Cenovus going to default on their bond?
Tom”
Garth said yes. What else do you want fortune teller Garth to predict? Lotto 649 numbers?
#79 Just Need To Do It on 11.20.18 at 10:22 pm
#71 Hogtown Harry –” Gee Harry just hate to pop your bubble, but you guessed wrong. It was not Waterloo, but elsewhere. The modern world of today might be moving a bit too fast for you.”
Where is this mysterious city that is going to cause a mass migration from Hogtown? Please elaborate o’ wise one. These 3000 jobs are the catalyst for a mass migration from the big smoke? I can see it now, corporate headquarters currently residing on Bay Street are going to your new metropolis. Please, oh please enlighten poor old Harry on this magnet city. I need a good belly laugh to start my day….
#30 MF all over North America enforcement of laws especially drug laws is being dialed back, because they “disproportionately target members of vunerable and marginalized communities”
It’s being pointed out those areas which are awash in tax free unreported cash money earned from trafficking drugs, humans and stolen goods. The poor don’t wear rags no more. The wear the latest bling. Yet cry out for more food stamps and assisted housing.
Our yellow tractor friend hints at other more friendly areas still which are baked in tax-free cash and government benefits.
MF going forward unless you belong to a magical protected class of the champange socialists you will be guilted not guilded.
Good pic and lesson.
Don’t mess with us. Or we’ll burst all your balloons.
@#86 Smoky
“T2 gets 4 more years to turn Canada into Venezuela…”
++++
Election in less than 12 months.
We’ll see how well “selfie” does at the polls.
The Maritimes are in the EI bag.
He’s not well liked in Quebec.
Ontario has turned into “Ford Country” after Ms Wynne’s ridiculous social experiments.
Man and Sask…either way.
Alberta vote for Trudeau? You’re kidding right?
BC? He’ll be fighting for scraps between the Greens, NDP, Cons, and other people.
IF Trudeau is PM next Dec…. he’ll be riding a minority coalition horse that talks out of both sides of it’s mouth and has a big Butz.
Life (not much) and death (way too much) in Torswampo:
https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/toronto-breaks-annual-homicide-record-on-pace-to-exceed-100-in-2018-1.4182828
Police say part of this is due to an increase in gang violence. That’ll make your declining-value Mcmansion wastelands feel safer, eh, GTA?
(Isn’t it true as the Globe reported that Ontario recently elected a former drug gang dealer as premier? That’s a great role model, Ontariturds!)
And I hear Toronto’s mayor tried to subtly downplay the murder rate, because it was skewed due to a mass murder van attack on Yonge Street.
What a classy and compassionate message. So fitting for Torswampo, Ontariowe.
I don’t see how our plastic money is any less imaginary than Bitcoin. The big difference being, the privately owned central bank has been making (Is it called printing when it’s plastic?) money like no tomorrow since ’08, same old story as all the other countries that tried this, causing massive inflation. At least with bitcoin, you know some corrupt central banker that’s never worked a day in his life, won’t conjure up a few billion more to lend out. Of course all central bankers will say Bitcoin, and all crypto’s are evil! they aren’t able to control them and enslave people do debt with crypto’s or skim billions off them. BTC may not last, I doubt if zero is any more likely to see than the TSX going to zero though. However, BTC was the first, of course as things progress, other, better, faster programs will takeover, as has already happened with hashgraph. Smart people got out of BTC at the right time, what an opportunity it was. Being open to change and new things can pay off. Has BTC lost more than the overvalued tech stocks have this past week?
The Bank of Canada is a crown corp, and not privately owned. Our currency is backed by foreign reserves but, most importantly, the power to tax. Bitcoin is backed by vapours and is inherently worthless. – Garth
Toronto murder rate worse than NY.
https://www.blogto.com/city/2018/06/toronto-homicide-rate-now-higher-new-york/
And your politicians keep trying to make it sound like this is sad but an exceptional year, etc… etc…
Wait! ……….Don’t they sound just like Realtors claiming that “the stats are actually fine, the market is healthy and it’s a good time to buy…” ?
So, no problem then. Carry on, Toronturds.
“deferred maintenance deficit
$83M needed to repair ‘fire hazard’ 24 Sussex and other official residences, commission says
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/24-sussex-millions-official-residence-1.4865372
24 Sussex Drive and Harrington Lake residences are in ‘critical’ condition
Catharine Tunney · CBC News · Posted: Oct 16, 2018 4:17 PM ET | Last Updated: October 16
=========
Residents say they had warned that the buildings were structurally unsound for years
It’s been 10 years that I’ve been living here and I’ve never had anyone come and inspect my apartment,”
“a 2015 report written for France’s minister of housing found that 40,000 dwellings in Marseille were unsafe — which is 10 percent of all unsafe buildings in France, and affects 100,000 of the city’s inhabitants.
Marseille, France’s second-largest city and one of Europe’s poorest, is facing a housing crisis that, more deeply, is a crisis of poverty. More than a quarter of the population is officially poor.
Many are asking why it has taken officials so long to address the dire conditions and what Marseille’s persistent poverty says about the neglect of “the other France”
Marseille building collapse: sixth body found in rubble | World news …
https://www.theguardian.com/…/marseille-building-collapse-fifth-body-found-in-rubble
Nov 7, 2018 – Six bodies have now been found in the rubble of two dilapidated buildings that collapsed in the centre of Marseille earlier this week.
===============
grenfell uk
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/707785/Building_a_Safer_Future_-_web.pdf
#109 Toronto Hater thinly veiled as Stan “Insane” Man Brooks…
“So, no problem then. Carry on, Toronturds.”
We will Stanley and you carry on in your rubber room…
“The Bank of Canada is a crown corp, and not privately owned. Our currency is backed by foreign reserves but, most importantly, the power to tax. Bitcoin is backed by vapours and is inherently worthless. – Garth”
I have to give credit to the bearded oracle that runs this blog for the patience he demonstrates with some of the mindless comments of blog dogs.. We may have to refer to you as Saint Garth going forward…
#71 Hogtown Harry on 11.20.18 at 9:19 pm
Dream on cowboy, dream on. The world’s largest greenbelt (7500 sq km) surrounding Hogtown, the 3rd largest metropolis in North American, financial capital of Canada and not a single millenial I know has left this great city. The hordes you cite are in your wishful thinking. What are these professionals migrating to? Small town Ontario to do what??? Give your head a shake cowboy. Your are blathering utter dribble. Headline: MBA grads are leaving Toronto to set up shop in small town Ontario… You are starting to sound like Stan the Madman Brooks.
______
Right. So you need me to repeat the same stuff I already said yesterday?
Sure, no problem:
1. I don’t know too many Millennials that are leaving the GTA either…
…but I’ll get StatsCan on the phone right away to let them know they can put their calculators down. The all knowing, all seeing Hogtown Harry has just decreed that he does not know any millennials that are leaving the GTA. They can stop counting the rest of them, Hogtown has spoken. The Millennials are not leaving.
2. I made no assertions as to the numbers leaving. That was Statistics Canada’s doing. Sorry about your luck on that one.
3. I made no statement as to the destination of those leaving. That was your doing.
Ok, now it’s your turn to again respond to assertions I never made, ask rhetorical questions, and avoid the facts.
I’ll leave you with a quote you should meditate on:
“Sit down before fact like a little child, and be prepared to give up every preconceived notion, follow humbly wherever and to whatever abyss Nature leads; or you shall learn nothing.”
― Thomas Henry Huxley
#86 Smoking Man on 11.20.18 at 11:07 pm
Why T2 is not opting out on the UNs compact on miration should tell you everything this traitor is up too. 50 IQ at best.
But it’s soon to be new Billionair Mr butts that’s driving this insanity. I’m think when Soros kicks the bucket. Mr Butts will be Mr big. Bank on It
USA
Israel
Czeck Republic
Estonia
Poland
Austria
Hungary
Croatia
Bulgary
Said NO!!!!!
To millions of migrants swarming urban centers where there is no infrastructure to handle the current population.
Only Mad Max is sheading light on this madness.. He’s got my vote Sorry Gartho.
T2 gets 4 more years to turn Canada into Venezuela, and will be the only thing he succeeds in.
T2 is making a new law to allow non-residence to vote.
Well Thanks T2
__________________________________________
T2 will not be here for the next round. The provincial and federal swing is now going away from Mr Socks. He is as much a lame duck and your revered Donald J trump. Bill C-76 is their (The Liberals) attempt to control the vote for their own benefit. As for non-residents voting I have no problem with that as long as they are Canadian citizens. You for example old man are a Canadian citizen living away from Canada in the USA. I have no-problem with allowing you to vote in our election as long as you are still a citizen of the country. The Liberals’ Bill C-76 is a omnibus bill is simply an attempt to undo the previous conservative government’s Fair Elections Act that was applied to guarantee greater veracity in our elections scheme. The problem is that they are proposing a voter ID card as a vetted credential that would have to be accepted by the elections Canada staff. The ID card could potentially permit innumerable non-citizens, as well as asylum seekers, illegal border jumpers and refugees whose applications that have been rejected to vote in the next election. As for creating a new law to allow non-citizens to vote, that would go down in flames if and when it ever hit the floor. That is the problem. Bill C-76 has not passed as of yet.
https://openparliament.ca/bills/42-1/C-76/?singlepage=1
Bitcoin is a highly speculative ?commodity? What it is has never existed before.
But I seriously doubt it will go to zero, it has been chugging along perfectly for 9 years now. I could be wrong though. Market speculation is one thing, but the bitcoin network itself is another.
I understand the skepticism, but there is something in the works here that is on the level of the development of the internet.
Currency supply and its creation should never be privatized. It should always be a government monopoly.
The real estate prices can fall off a cliff for all I care. Let the real estate market burn down to nothing and blow away.
#84 MF on 11.20.18 at 10:51 pm
Basically no evidence for anything you are saying. No evidence that “Toronto was better before”. That’s just nostalgia, which is an emotional response and not a rational one.
MF
——————————————-
You’re correct re: nostalgia. It’s never a rational way of looking at something. I remember downtown Toronto circa 2000 when the Richmond & Peter area had the highest concentration of nightclubs in North America. It was gritty, thrilling, and enigmatic for a suburban kid. If I recall correctly, at its height there were something like 80 clubs crammed into an area stretching just a few blocks in each direction. Then the NIMBYs moved in with Adam Vaughan as their leader, and clubland died. Nearly all the old venues are gone, although the decline of nightlife over the past 20 years is a phenomenon observed in cities throughout the Western world. I have fond memories but, as you said…..nostalgia.
Will the new crop of youngsters feel such nostalgia for the plastic new condo-fied Toronto and plethora of “craft brew pubs” (snoooooooze….)? I guess we’ll know in 20 years.
Here is a tune that fits the situation.
Apocalypse Now intro: The Doors, The End {1979}
https://youtu.be/CIrvSJwwJUE
#91 ponzius pilatius
Bought a table saw at Amazon. Big box stores (blue or orange) sell it for $500.00. Amazon price $300.00.
The seller is none other than the manufacturer himself.
You get all the warranty and so on. What am I missing here?
#84 MF on 11.20.18 at 10:51 pm
Already posted but I will post again.
____
I think at this point, you are willfully avoiding the irrefutable (and evidently shocking) StatsCan Data I posted last week, and again yesterday, and that which was also carried forward by other posters who graciously dug up my original post and re-posted it – explicitly for your benefit.
That’s cool bra, ignorance is bliss.
Just one question though – do you know the difference between iterprovincial and intraprovinicial?
I have to assume you don’t via your continual posting of that same Ontario demographics data followed by your assertions on Toronto demographics.
Calling Bitcoin a ponzi scheme betrays a breathtaking ignorance of the basic reality of what it is…
A Ponzi scheme needs an owner, an operator, a central authority collecting the upward flow of money. There is no such entity in Bitcoin, it’s a collection of servers, miners, nodes and users.
Sure, late 2017 produced a bubble of epic proportions, but the public is to blame for that as usual, not Bitcoin.
Now is a great buying opportunity, since the long term trajectory for Bitcoin and Ethereum is limit-less.
Think of it: programmable money that can securely relay value across the entire world for a small fee, and without the need for a bank. The market has still not come to value this asset correctly, so buy now.
The next bull run is 2021, the surest way to convert a 20K investment into half a million dollars that I know of.
There’s even better re: Bitcoin, Garth, as related by Karl Denninger. As follows.
A whole lotta’ money-traders who knew better than us – just ask them – or maybe shoulda’ known better, sold their Bitcoin at the top of the market and, having made thumpin’ great fortunes thereon, ploughed (they spell it ‘plowed’) their profits into younger, newer cryptos, hoping to do the same again. No such luck; they lost it all.
But – and here’s the rub – they SOLD THEIR BITCOIN. They therefore took profit on a highly lucrative speculation, and they owe tax on the profit. A LOT of tax. And then lost their pile on the next turn of the wheel, so they have no money left to pay the tax – and Uncle Sam is slapping a blackjack in the palm of his off-hand and looking their way meaningfully.
So sad, so very sad…
This is the part where I normally do a snappy intro.
This time I will just thank acdel for their kind message…
M44BC
“What’s the Average Cost of Utilities Where You Live?
If you are trying to save money, take a look at your electrical usage. That’s the message from a new report detailing average utility costs across five different categories for every state across the country.
Researchers at move.org crunched the numbers for five essential utilities. They looked to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) to determine average electrical consumption per U.S. resident. They also used EIA’s figures for average natural gas usage, which is 168 cubic feet per day. They relied on Numbeo to calculate average figures for both Internet and cable bills, assuming 60 Mbps with unlimited data. And finally, they looked to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to estimate the average daily water usage of 300 gallons per day for a family.
This methodology gives us a true apples-to-apples comparison of utility costs across states. And instead of creating a simple heat map comparing total prices, we broke each state into a diagram illustrating how much each one costs, letting you easily see which states and which utilities drive the highest monthly expenditures.
States with the Highest Total Cost for Utilities
1. Hawaii: $730.86
2. Alaska: $527.96
3. Rhode Island: $521.98
4. Connecticut: $496.07
5. New York: $477.31
6. New Hampshire: $477.02
7. South Carolina: $473.78
8. Massachusetts: $469.13
9. Vermont: $468.3
10. Maine: $464.45
At its most basic level, our visualization demonstrates where utilities are very expensive (or relatively cheap). There’s an obvious large block of color in the Northeast representing a cluster of states with above-average prices. Hawaii and Alaska both stand out toward the bottom left of the map as well. The most budget-friendly states stretch across the Midwest and West. Idaho takes first place as the cheapest state overall at just $344 per month. California is also relatively expensive but not necessarily budget-shattering at $438.
One way to think about these figures is to compare it with population density. Utilities cost more where there is higher demand, like the Northeast. Hawaii and Alaska stand alone as unique situations given their geographic distance from the mainland. And as we might expect, prices are substantially lower in sparsely populated regions, like the West.
But the real value of our visualization is how it ranks each category. Electricity is the most expensive for every state in the Northeast, but natural gas takes first place across the South. And here’s the interesting thing. There appears to be a ceiling on the cost of natural gas, but not electricity. In some states like California, New Jersey and Massachusetts, electricity makes up a whopping 40% of the overall outlay for utilities. Compare that to states like South Carolina and Georgia, where natural gas sits at about 32% of the total. To put it simply, electrical rates are the primary driver pushing up overall utility costs. If you want to save money, odds are you should look for high-efficiency light bulbs and appliances.”
20 November 2018
Visualization
https://howmuch.net/articles/cost-of-utilities-in-every-state
@Kreditanstalt on 11.20.18 at 9:48 pm
“Physical gold, held not as a speculation but as long-term value storage, is far superior.”
This is hilarious. I can’t think of a worse-performing asset class than gold. Consider this fact:
$10,000 invested into gold 200 years ago would be worth $26,000 today and since 1968 has produced an inflation adjusted return of less than 3%.
Sources:
(https://www.joshuakennon.com/stocks-vs-bonds-vs-gold-returns-for-the-past-200-years/)
(https://dqydj.com/inflation-adjusted-gold-return-calculator/).
#122 Y. Knott on 11.21.18 at 10:32 am
……………….
capital losses cancel out cap gains. no tax owing.
also, loss carry fwd for any initial funds lost.
no prob there.
but!!!! according to mr Unhinged, boofcoin goes 25x from here. got my best laugh of the day in early. thanks UT.
in 3 yrs the price of btc is removed from quote headers (cnbc etc) when the price goes sub 100.
#103 Hogtown Harry on 11.21.18 at 6:07 am
Where is this mysterious city that is going to cause a mass migration from Hogtown? Please elaborate o’ wise one. These 3000 jobs are the catalyst for a mass migration from the big smoke? I can see it now, corporate headquarters currently residing on Bay Street are going to your new metropolis. Please, oh please enlighten poor old Harry on this magnet city. I need a good belly laugh to start my day….
_________
Here are some nice charts showing where Torontonians are moving when they bail:
https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2017/03/01/canadians-leaving-major-cities_n_15080726.html
This is EXACTLY the information you asked for delivered to you on a silver platter, at no cost whatsoever!!
You can thank me later.
I must warn you however, that this link will connect you with media containing verifiable and irrefutable facts, so you may be unable to understand what is being said.
You may find yourself getting confused and experiencing a sudden unexplained loss of the ability to read.
Chronic Factophobia is real, and should not be suffered in silence. It is OK to need help sometimes, especially with difficult flare ups of fact, truth, and times when intellectual honesty is getting you down.
Well, I’m here to help hogster! In the event you find yourself unable to digest said facts, I am trained to help you absorb them, just a little bit at a time; so as to minimize your discomfort.
#119 Shopper on 11.21.18 at 10:19 am
#91 ponzius pilatius
Bought a table saw at Amazon. Big box stores (blue or orange) sell it for $500.00. Amazon price $300.00.
The seller is none other than the manufacturer himself.
You get all the warranty and so on. What am I missing here?
_____
You will probably be missing a good chunk of the tax. It seems every time I buy something from Amazon that comes direct from China – the tax is always way less than it should be.
#121 Unhinged_Trader on 11.21.18 at 10:29 am
You are right, calling Bitcoin a Ponzi scheme is giving Ponzi schemes more of a bad rap then they deserve.
Bitcoin and its copy / paste / rename code imitators along with ICO snake oil pushers and their ilk are an entirely different game…
Block chain-based ledgers; great technology with a lot of potential…
@#78 Dolce Vita on 11.20.18 at 10:17 pm
#71 Hogtown Harry
I loved Toronto when I lived there back in the mid 80’s. If you were young, it was a real part city.
As for the rest, it’s just another large North American concrete, glass and steel city with some charms to distinguish it (YVR with its mountains and ocean, 416 the lake – neither water body I would swim in or do they recommend you do).
_____________________________
other than being absolutely frigid most of the time, the beaches in TO are great for swimming water activities. they do daily tests. whenever there’s a huge rain storm it usually takes a few days for the run-off to dissipate.
Toronto’s also an incredibly green city. enormous canopy – tons of greenspace. Just a great place to live in general, high housing costs notwithstanding
#121 Unhinged_Trader on 11.21.18 at 10:29 am
The next bull run is 2021, the surest way to convert a 20K investment into half a million dollars that I know of. ————————————————————-
You must have a lot of money tied up in these things. You sound very desperate.
Driving along 401 you will see nothing, but turning off there are surprises to be discovered. Farmland with crops growing far and wide with huge farms. A small town with all the basics, not far from a major city needs to be looked at filled with beautiful homes both young and old fully renovated. 18 months or so ago were selling cheap. One goes to satellite mode, and plots of land were sold with clusters of new monster homes having 3 car garages, no more than 6 per cluster – retired people or working somewhere? The best of both worlds because could enjoy the small town environment with the larger city at hand. The small town had everything Foodland, huge RBC Financial Group, and just one modern car dealership selling one type of vehicle that all were driving around – Ford Lincoln. This wasn’t the GTA anymore.
#115 Braj on 11.21.18 at 9:55 am
Bitcoin is a highly speculative ?commodity? What it is has never existed before.
But I seriously doubt it will go to zero, it has been chugging along perfectly for 9 years now. I could be wrong though. Market speculation is one thing, but the bitcoin network itself is another.
I understand the skepticism, but there is something in the works here that is on the level of the development of the internet.
————————————————————
Is this what you are getting at?
https://polyn8.io/blockchain-101/blockchain-technology-is-to-bitcoin-what-the-internet-is-to-google/
Recent sale report.
I recently featured this house as the detached option in my ill fated poll,where I asked you guys which option you would pick out of the three segments, but people got distracted and decided to try and find out just how ugly I am by clicking on my gravatar instead.
The results of that b-grade poll was…
Detached option 66%( this house)
Townhome option 29%
Condo option 5%
Anyway let’s have a look at this house sale.
The details…
7296 Inverness st,Vancouver.
Originally asking 1.37
Just sold for 1.02
Assessment 1.28
So as I mentioned in a post last night some of the ones around the bottom of the market have been respectable and some have needed demolishing.
These guys tried it on for the 2017 price at the start in May, but quickly found out that there is no stable footing at the bottom of the market.
The new guys got a decent house with hardwood floors with a newer hot water tank, furnace ,air conditioning and roof.
Only have one neighbor to annoy them as well.
The market can continue down and these guys will be alright for a while…
M44BC
https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/7296-inverness-street
#123 For those about to flop… on 11.21.18 at 11:03 am
If you want to save money, odds are you should look for high-efficiency light bulbs and appliances.”
=================================
While using less of something that costs money is rarely a bad plan at an individual level, unintended consequences can kick in at the macro for infrastructure costs ie looking at the component costs of electricity – in ON, at least, the costs to maintain the infrastructure to create and move those electrons is higher than the actual electrons themselves when the bill is actually split out…
Another real life example is the local water utility raised costs b/c conservation was costing them on the sales side and there’s fixed plant and piping costs regardless…
#125 bdwy sktrn on 11.21.18 at 11:07 am – nope; it didn’t work-out that way. I looked-up the original Denninger article on market ticker org, it’s his article 233294; no longer available. :(
#109 50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE! on 11.21.18 at 8:53 am
Toronto murder rate worse than NY.
https://www.blogto.com/city/2018/06/toronto-homicide-rate-now-higher-new-york/
And your politicians keep trying to make it sound like this is sad but an exceptional year, etc… etc…
Wait! ……….Don’t they sound just like Realtors claiming that “the stats are actually fine, the market is healthy and it’s a good time to buy…” ?
So, no problem then. Carry on, Toronturds.
___________________________________________
The gloomy state of a large city as in any city is that crime is an inevitable result.
Yes the numbers do not lie. Tory is affirming that ten of those people were massacred in the April van attack. New York City has not experienced another mass murder this year thank god. I would remind everyone these were people who lived, breathed and had families we should not forget that any of these victims deserve our sympathy. Unfortunately it always comes down to numbers.
So would you rather locate to New York City or do you just have so much abhorrence against Toronto that you constantly feel the need to knock in it down? If you don’t like the city then as a free Canadian citizen I implore you to relocate to a place where you can bitch all you want about the lack of attributes of your new digs.
http://homicidecanada.com/toronto-homicide-victim-list-2018/
#30 MF on 11.20.18 at 6:25 pm
#17 The Wet One on 11.20.18
Jailing and charging people for weed smoking was (and should still be) the right thing to do because doing weed was (and should still be) breaking the law.
Only drug addicts use weed. I don’t care about who you know and who you don’t.
I don’t smoke and tons of my friends don’t either.
Don’t try to normalize this garbage behaviour.
MF
—————————————————————
You said jailing people “should still be” the right thing to do because “it should be” still breaking the law. I find it amazing when someone with no experience with something holds such strong opinions based on said lack of experience.
It has helped my grandfather with stomach pains and lack of appetite… essentially given him his life back. It has taken someone I know’s wife off of sleeping pills. She was once a zombie but now has her life back thanks to CBD oil. My stepmother is terminally ill and a MEDICAL PROFESSIONAL so not you, has provided cannabis products.
You are fortunate enough to presumably not suffer from such ailments and therefore do not require medications. Thankfully you are not the judge, jury and executioner when it comes to how people choose to deal with their ailments and how DOCTORS with more knowledge choose to treat their patients.
As someone that lives in Calgary where there are numerous shops to purchase, I have seen literally no change in the smell of the air and people using in public. It has not made a difference.
As a fiscal conservative it makes significantly more sense to allow those that choose to indulge whether occasionally or often to do so and tax it then it does to throw them in prison and incur significantly more costs and further burden our strained financials.
If you choose to smugly scoff at those that choose something that you do not approve of that is your problem. You will be the one that gets left behind. No one should force it on you but at the same time, you should not judge someone because they enjoy something that you don’t.
#100 rentin on 11.21.18 at 3:24 am
No affiliation at all, I was just looking for a log graph of historic housing prices. Haven’t checked the math, but it looks correct.
https://househuntvictoria.ca/2016/03/17/a-brief-history-of-prices/
average inflation is around 2%, so returns according to this are just under 6%.
Not a bad return since you can’t leverage your returns like this on the equities market.
Only rules are:
1. Have enough money to weather mortgage increases with at the renewal
2. Don’t move
3. Expect the property to be illiquid at some points in time (ie now).
4. Buy the worst house on the street with the best land
Other than that, where else can you get 6% annualized returns on your 500,000 that you never had. ROI on a 10% down payment of 50,000 lets say is quite good.
How come this never gets brought up here?
___
That graph shows a long term annual price increase of 3.74%. You can not add the inflation rate on top of that as a 2% increase in value. 3.74% is what it is – all in. The inflation rate is not additional profit.
So you make 3.74% then deduct all the costs you never mentioned like insurance, property taxes, mortgage interest, maintenance, renovations, realtor fees, legal fees, CMHC fees, etc. A good estimate for the meat and potatoes costs of ownership of a 500K house over 25 years and averaging 5.0% is 600K
Now you want to sell so add a 100K reno+costs and you are into it for 1.2 Mil since day 1 all in (MINIMUM).
3.74% appreciation annualized after 25 years means your 500K house is now worth 1,252,000.00, so you sell after 25 years and pocket 52K for an annual profit of about 2 grand per year.
If you took that 4K/mo you dumped into home ownership and invested it (sheltered) at the same 5.0% for the same 25 years, you’d make 1.16 Million.
That’s why it never gets brought up here.
#30 MF on 11.20.18 at 6:25 pm
#17 The Wet One on 11.20.18
Jailing and charging people for weed smoking was (and should still be) the right thing to do because doing weed was (and should still be) breaking the law.
Only drug addicts use weed. I don’t care about who you know and who you don’t.
I don’t smoke and tons of my friends don’t either.
Don’t try to normalize this garbage behaviour.
MF
/////////////////////
Hey MF, you are becoming a cranky old man right before our very eyes.
Welcome to the club!
M53ON
#137 Guy In Calgary – I have no problem with medical weed products that are controlled by an MD, and a regulated dispensing authority for the betterment of a medical condition. The problem arises when its available to all being legal, and you can grow it at home, which crosses the line for a political agenda. The young kids will be smoking dope eventually just like obtaining a pack of smokes. I have seen this happen at the shopping centers, whereby a friend of age buys a pack for the kid, and a few minutes later the minor is smoking outside.
@#138 IHCTD9 on 11.21.18 at 1:32 pm
#100 rentin on 11.21.18 at 3:24 am
No affiliation at all, I was just looking for a log graph of historic housing prices. Haven’t checked the math, but it looks correct.
https://househuntvictoria.ca/2016/03/17/a-brief-history-of-prices/
average inflation is around 2%, so returns according to this are just under 6%.
Not a bad return since you can’t leverage your returns like this on the equities market.
Only rules are:
1. Have enough money to weather mortgage increases with at the renewal
2. Don’t move
3. Expect the property to be illiquid at some points in time (ie now).
4. Buy the worst house on the street with the best land
Other than that, where else can you get 6% annualized returns on your 500,000 that you never had. ROI on a 10% down payment of 50,000 lets say is quite good.
How come this never gets brought up here?
___
That graph shows a long term annual price increase of 3.74%. You can not add the inflation rate on top of that as a 2% increase in value. 3.74% is what it is – all in. The inflation rate is not additional profit.
So you make 3.74% then deduct all the costs you never mentioned like insurance, property taxes, mortgage interest, maintenance, renovations, realtor fees, legal fees, CMHC fees, etc. A good estimate for the meat and potatoes costs of ownership of a 500K house over 25 years and averaging 5.0% is 600K
Now you want to sell so add a 100K reno+costs and you are into it for 1.2 Mil since day 1 all in (MINIMUM).
3.74% appreciation annualized after 25 years means your 500K house is now worth 1,252,000.00, so you sell after 25 years and pocket 52K for an annual profit of about 2 grand per year.
If you took that 4K/mo you dumped into home ownership and invested it (sheltered) at the same 5.0% for the same 25 years, you’d make 1.16 Million.
That’s why it never gets brought up here.
______________________________
hmm, Over the past 15yrs I’ve made substantially more on housing than I could have ever made with a balanced portfolio. lucky timing for me, definitely couldnt achieve same results if I started now.
The Value of a (Canadian) Dollar and what backs it
Our currency is backed by foreign reserves but, most importantly, the power to tax. Bitcoin is backed by vapours and is inherently worthless. – Garth
**********************************
This gets into the nature of money. In general it is FAR FAR more productive for Canadians to focus on accumulating more Canadian dollars rather than trying to understand the nature of money or to protect against its fall in value. Especially since the there are so many scary opinions out there on the matter.
(Be cautious reading any opinion that uses the word “fiat” or “fractional reserve” in a negative scary way. There are grains of truth to such matters but mostly the opinions will be ill-informed or at least needlessly alarmist).
Ultimately, the ability and likelihood of a Canadian dollar maintaining its value (or not losing much) in terms of U.S. dollars depends on expectations that inflation will be not much different than in the U.S.
And ultimately, the ability and likelihood of a Canadian dollar maintaining (or only slowly losing) its value in terms of purchasing power of real goods and services depends on expectations that inflation will be modest. And the Canadian dollar WILL lose some value in terms of purchasing power over time since inflation is expected to be positive.
Now why should Canadians or the world have confidence that inflation will be low and not much different than in the U.S?
1. We have a central bank charged with making that happen and with a strong history of achieving it.
2. The Canadian government has manageable debt and has taxation powers and is therefore unlikely to ever simply print money to repay or service its debt which is mostly denominated in Canadian dollars. And actually there is no need to ever repay the debt. The Canadian government does not have a finite life and can simply service the debt forever.
3. I suspect the Canadian government has little in the way of foreign currency borrowing and this makes it less likely it will need to “print” money to repay or service debt.
4. In spite of gloom the Canadian economy continues to grow and can support the taxation the government needs to service its debt without ever printing money and causing inflation.
I am sure what I am saying misses some things but I think the above is reasonably correct.
Canadians do not have much to worry about in terms of devaluation of the dollar, especially not int terms of purchasing power as high inflation is nowhere in the cards.
There is always some risk of lower value in terms of America dollars and most can handle that with a portion of their investments in U.S. dollars or just forego travel and spending in the U.S.
Again, focus on getting MORE Canadian dollars not worrying about its vale.
BitCoin? Laugh out loud!!
@#136 James on 11.21.18 at 1:10 pm
#109 50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE! on 11.21.18 at 8:53 am
Toronto murder rate worse than NY.
https://www.blogto.com/city/2018/06/toronto-homicide-rate-now-higher-new-york/
And your politicians keep trying to make it sound like this is sad but an exceptional year, etc… etc…
Wait! ……….Don’t they sound just like Realtors claiming that “the stats are actually fine, the market is healthy and it’s a good time to buy…” ?
So, no problem then. Carry on, Toronturds.
___________________________________________
The gloomy state of a large city as in any city is that crime is an inevitable result.
Yes the numbers do not lie. Tory is affirming that ten of those people were massacred in the April van attack. New York City has not experienced another mass murder this year thank god. I would remind everyone these were people who lived, breathed and had families we should not forget that any of these victims deserve our sympathy. Unfortunately it always comes down to numbers.
So would you rather locate to New York City or do you just have so much abhorrence against Toronto that you constantly feel the need to knock in it down? If you don’t like the city then as a free Canadian citizen I implore you to relocate to a place where you can bitch all you want about the lack of attributes of your new digs.
____________________________
Something real bad must have happened to this guy.
Toronto is such a trigger for him lol.
#140 Weed Being Legal on 11.21.18 at 2:10 pm
———————————————————-
I disagree. Education and controlling the advertising is what is needed. For example, the reason young people drink is the glamorous culture behind it. Celebs, glitzy commercials, “have a beer and watch the game” kind of mentality. They see mom with wine and dad having beers with his pals and it becomes normalized. In reality, it is incredibly unhealthy and potentially dangerous.
There should be alcohol commercials that are the same as cigarette commercials. Show the homeless alcoholic, show the alcohol withdrawals, show the drunk driver and show someone with jaundice. That would likely make people second guess their choices. I am certainly not against people that enjoy having some beers or a scotch but it has to go both ways.
Unfortunately that won’t happen because we are in too deep wit the booze. It is not yours or anyone else’s business if someone chooses a safe alternative to alcohol to let loose and watch the game. Criminalizing it is even more stupid.
Oil.
The bringer of external economic shocks (queue early 80’s recession).
We ship 3.3 MMbpd south about 10% of that by very costly rail (per Forbes: “The difference in cost is about $50 billion a year for shipping via the Keystone versus rail.”).
So money still flowing in.
Now, excess and new AB capacity backlogged, depressing prices. Crazy.
10 years ago I mentioned to fellow Albertan’s all gleeful about many new tar sands plants being built about how are you going to ship this oil to market and got summarily told to go copulate with a duck.
So here we are, a glut. Low prices, if they persist, will cost the AB and SK Gov’s dearly and ultimately Canada.
Cut production, same end game. Less stuff being made to tax.
I hope this is not going to lead to another oil induced economic shock, this time in REVERSE; rather than high oil prices, we have low oil prices and hence LOW Gov REVENUES.
This article by the Financial Post begins to scratch the surface of the economic shock due if low prices persist (replete with your perfunctory sensationalist title):
“Canada’s pipeline crisis needs a fix now — the country’s entire standard of living is on the line”
https://business.financialpost.com/opinion/canadas-pipeline-crisis-needs-a-fix-now-the-countrys-entire-standard-of-living-is-on-the-line
———————————————-
For now, JOE & JANE CANADA DO NOT CARE since it costs a lot less to fuel your vehicle.
We’ll worry about the economic outfall of this some time in the future (just like Albertan’s built lots of plants with no future pipeline capacity to get that oil to market).
Typical. Eventually, the cream rises to the top and in this case, the cream will be skim milk.
Not only are Gov coffers affected, so will JOBS be affected.
Hopefully a solution found (you know, cut production, magically conjure a pipeline to markets out of nowhere).
#112 In Garth we trust
I have to give credit to the bearded oracle that runs this blog for the patience he demonstrates with some of the mindless comments of blog dogs.. We may have to refer to you as Saint Garth going forward…
The chartered banks in Canada can print as much money as they want, and they are private. Look it up for yourself, Mulroney changed reserve requirements to 0% in the ’80’s. The BOC is a “Special crown corp” their website tell us: the Minister of Finance has held the entire share capital issued by the Bank.
Sounds the same as a private bank. In any case, don’t miss the point. If you print enough of it, doesn’t matter what it’s backed by, it’s worthless. The people in Canada have no say over the billions upon billions the bank conjured into existence. It’s only “Currency” just like BTC, I’m not into Crypto’s, don’t own any, but it’s a currency like all others, just not controlled by banks. If you could solve all the worlds problems by turning the printing press on, Rome would still be an empire. Just look at all the currencies in the past that are no longer used, why is that?
#142 Shawn Allen
Very well put and good points. As I see it, fractional reserve banking and fiat currency are just that, no matter what country is producing it. That being said, the last Trudeau government decided to start borrowing off chartered banks instead of the BOC back in ’74 at the Basil committee. Since then government debt levels have risen exponentially. Look at how the buying power of the dollar has dropped, especially since they’ve been printing over the last decade, following suit with US and EU with QE style programs. History shows that printing like this has consequences. I see your point in trying to get more money, however, investing it in something that won’t lose as fast as the value of the CAD is the trick. That being said, long term calls on oil? it will come back, just a matter of time, but is it too much of a gamble?