Eighteen months ago house lust peaked. You recall those days, surely. Prices shot ahead 30% year/year in the spring of ’17. FOMO swept across the landscape as young buyers were convinced they’d never own if they didn’t plunge immediately. Royal LePage, Re/Max. Sotheby’s and their ilk milked it relentlessly with ‘reports’ proving real estate was actually under-valued. Household debt romped higher. A million became the starting point in the bubble markets. Contagion spread throughout 905, 705 and the LM. Suddenly people in Saint Catharines and Vernon were being priced out. Multiple offers. Blind auctions. No conditions. Risk on.
Well, as 2018 winds down it’s a different world.
Interest rates have increased five times. The mortgage stress test knocked a fifth of new buyers out of the market or dashed their expectations. Sales are down. Listings are up. In 11 of the 13 largest markets real estate activity has slumped. Gone are the expectations of unbridled advance.
But wait. Prices haven’t moved that much in demand markets, despite all.
Sure, Cowtown and Deadmonton are pooched, but with Canadian oil virtually being given away, what can we expect? The exurbs on the frontier fringes of the GTA saw 20% to 30% plops months ago and have not recovered. But the inflation there was just senseless. And, for sure, tony properties in YVR, especially on the Westside, have been seriously kicked. However, plunging from $5 million to $3.5 million lacks tragedy.
So year/year values in both bubble markets prices are stable, even ahead a little – pulled up by condos. Detacheds gave up some froth, but it’s hard to call that a correction. Other markets – like Montreal, Halifax and Ottawa – are, in a word, stable. This might change. But maybe not.
Meanwhile the Bank of Canada is predicting three to five more increases and the stress test rate will be approaching 7% if it happens. Within four years almost all families with mortgages will have renewed at a higher rate. Oil – our biggest export – has crashed. Ontario – our biggest province – has a larger deficit than the entire nation. And yet surveys show almost 45% of people expect house prices to be up in six months.
All of this begs one question. Is this the soft landing? Did it arrive? Was this blog actually correct four months ago in telling people who *really* wanted a house to go shopping in those areas where prices had crashed by a fifth and sellers were desperate? And in suggesting those waiting for a 40% decline in 416 might was well covet a pony?
Some economists say so. Naturally they work for banks who float mortgages, which is worth remembering. Last week some were crowing this message to Bloomberg. Not too hot. Not too cold. Just perfect.
Eric Lascelles, RBC: “It’s a pretty good spot to be in, avoiding boom but avoiding bust as well. The rule changes that have been made have been effective in cooling these markets down.”
Robert Kavcic, BMO: “It looks like we’re settling into this environment in Canada where price growth is going to be flat in real terms.”
The pro-housing Benny Tal, CIBC: “Overall, yes the medicine is working. We are reaching some sort of landing, how soft it will be I don’t know, but we aren’t in a free-fall by any stretch of the imagination.”
So are these guys trying to lead the market, joining hands with the big property marketers and real estate boards to encourage FOMO, more buying, more debt, steady demand, price escalation and a higher home ownership rate? Not purposefully, perhaps. But that’s the net outcome. If Canadians fall for it, there’ll be no housing reset. Not until a personal finance crisis arrives.
However, here’s the reality. We’ve never been more indebted than at this moment. The economy is doing okay, but real income growth has seriously lagged. Interest rates are in the middle of a tightening cycle. The cost of servicing all that debt will only rise. Tighter lending regs have hit detached and high-end housing the most and inflated the price of cheaper stuff. Major demographic changes are underway with Boomers needing to cash out and Mills – now the largest cohort – struggling to buy. Subprime borrowing has blossomed. HELOCs are out of control. Four in ten people couldn’t survive one missed paycheque.
Does this sound like it will end softly?
In 2006, just months before the entire US housing market came crashing down – after a relative period of soft landing and soothing words, the National Association of Realtors (America’s equivalent of CREA) ran this ad in major markets across the nation:
At that time, as in Canada now, people could buy houses with adjustable-rate mortgages, relatively scant down payments, interest-only loans and play the futures market with pre-construction condos. Yes, interest rates were rising and tighter lending controls were being implemented and, yes, sales and prices had stabilized, but none of this prevented the inevitable. Two years later the average house price across the States was down 32% and in some bubble markets (Florida, Arizona, California) there were 70% declines.
Mr. Market’s funny that way. Goldilocks can end up as lunch.
150 comments ↓
First! This is the most glorious moment of my life.
What a great time to be in all the the markets, house paid off.
Especially on the west coast where there has been more sunny days than rainy days in November.
It’s almost eerie that way.
But if this is Global Warming then I’m all for it.
My end point is only 30 years out anyhow.
Where’s the doomers who keep calling the area Raincouver? It’s kinda like Trump calling that California fiire area “Pleasant” instead of Paradise. No kidding, he did that yesterday. Bad as T2, mostly, nobody knows what they’re talking about.
1/5th of all real estate in China is sitting empty. China collapse coming?
Looks like Edmonton house prices are getting hammered.
Do rents drop as house prices drop?
Mortgage stress test rules may be pushing borrowers towards unregulated lenders
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Bank of Canada report shows banks have lowered risk, but questions remain about private lending market
Jacqueline Hansen · CBC News · Posted: Nov 18, 2018 4:00 AM ET | Last Updated: 8 hours ago
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/mortgage-stress-lenders-unregulated-1.4909617
I don’t know if we are in a soft landing phase or just a baby step away from chaos.
I thought this past thursday’s Ford budget was going to usher in some big cuts and layoffs. If he did trim the fat and really try to reduce the deficit, there would be more than a few newly unemployed people that would have to declare bankruptcy.
Also there is also Trump… if he wants to be re-elected will he do some crazy corporate tax scheme which will encourage many auto part suppliers/manufacturers to relocate to the US?
The Central Bank of Mexico increased their rate to 8% recently, because were worried about inflation.
i wonder how much of the private mortgages are included in the personal debt figures. it’s funny that so much of the private mortgages are money from the “investors”‘ heloc. lolz, this is going to get ugly very quickly.
the dominoes are all lined up. which rate hike will be the push?
I would not bet on anything until the Q2 2019 housing numbers are released. That should tell us where we are going. Also, another Turdo Liberal government in Oct.2019 could really put the final nail in the Canadian economic coffin. I hope I am wrong.
When mainstream media publishes doctored-data and juked stats fluff pieces by the real estate cartels as “news” there is no trust left in public information.
The Globe and Mail has a weekly real estate section that is basically an extended advertorial. How can anyone expect the paper to objectively report on crashing sales and price erosion when their ad revenue depends on pleasing their ad-paying overlords in the most corrupt industry in the world?
In the Okanagan, where the correction is obviously under way the local cartel OREB still tries to hide and mask the correction. Meanwhile, the main news source Castanet avoids any coverage of the swelling inventory and falling prices. Corrupt, dirty, filthy to the core.
As painful as a housing crash always is, there’s nothing more effective in resetting the system and chastening the greedy bottom feeders that have gorged on the soft brains of housing cultists. It’s obvious to anyone here that the party has ended, and yet silence from the information gatekeepers. Let’s see how long they can keep their yaps shut once it’s no longer possible to ignore the crashing wave.
“Mr. Market’s funny that way. Goldilocks can end up as lunch.”
The bearded mystic sage, all knowing all wise oracle that runs this pathetic blog is Galbraithian in his use of humour! Kudos to you senor!
There are a lot of hurtin Albertins in the oil patch and this past week was historic in it’s oil futures negativity. The NDP will be thrown out and a more common sense approach (I hope) will be used to balance Alberta’s books. Alberta is being held back by selfie boy and his minions. If you are a PM and have a hydrocarbon idealogy BUT hold the direct future of the oil industry ( TransMountain P/L) in your hands under direct control of the PMO and caucus. Canada wake up. All bank economists agree that the Canadian export market numbers are about to give a lesson in the extreme importance of our domestic oil market.
I glanced at the October real estate data in my old stomping grounds of Fort McMisery. A miserable October and how is it going to improve with the $24 (Cdn) handle on the Alberta sludge we dig up?
Glance at October figures for duplex, townhouse and condo. A world of hurt.
I have a lot of terrific friends in The Mac and I feel for them.
https://www.fmreb.com/sites/5098200ae7e1b41bc50042de/content_entry50bf9565e7e1b41bc501133d/5beb00ad5918ad149f249ac3/files/October_2018.pdf?1542127789
B.C. Supreme Court sides with West Van in $5.3M waterfront property dispute
District, which appropriated lot “for public use” in 2015, will not have to pay higher amount previous owner demanded
Brent Richter / North Shore News
JUNE 12, 2018 03:52 PM
https://www.nsnews.com/real-estate/b-c-supreme-court-sides-with-west-van-in-5-3m-waterfront-property-dispute-1.23333652
@#9 Four Fingers
“another Turdo Liberal government in Oct.2019 could really put the final nail in the Canadian economic coffin. I hope I am wrong.”
++++
Yeah, If Trudeau does manage to remain as PM it will be in a Minority govt where , hopefully , he can do less harm and STFU.
Maxime and the NDP will take Quebec and Ontario is a crap shoot between Red or Blue.
Maritimes will subserviently vote for who ever hands out the most EI benefits…
Western provinces will vote Con or Green or Dipper.
@#10 Ogopogo
“When mainstream media publishes doctored-data and juked stats fluff pieces by the real estate cartels as “news” there is no trust left in public information”
++++
Yeah, most newsprint has morphed into advertisement clogged fish wrapper with the morals of alley cats in heat.
Benny Tal and all mortgage “pumpers” like him should be kept on much tighter leashes with their “sunny days are here again” pontificating….
He ( and they) have lost all credibility with the few people in the know….as for the rest of the “sheeple” that stumble from unaffordable financial loans to overextended lines of credit……They never, ever learn….
hmmmm,
Isnt Montreal experiencing a “sales boom”?
https://www.vancourier.com/real-estate/exclusive-chinese-buyer-interest-in-metro-vancouver-real-estate-soars-again-1.23473185
We’re imagining it all.
Nothing to see here , move along.
#50 SmarterSquirrel — “Finding solid businesses that you can invest in for the long term with dividend growth and reinvesting the dividends regularly is a much better way to go. Someone who did that with JNJ stock since 1972 as an example would have 150x their initial investment by 2017.”
Absolutely. But would you have had the stones?
Adjusted for splits, JNJ was trading at $2.65 around this date in 1972. By 1979, it was down to $1.46. But with the raging inflation of the 1970s, that $2.65 in 1972 was $4.60 in 1979 dollars, so you were down 70% not including the divvies. Also, JNJ was in the “nifty fifty” group in the early 70s. If you’d have been comfortable buying Nvidia six weeks ago at a P/E of 50, JNJ probably would have appealed to you in ’72. And all your friends who bought $2.65 worth of average American house in ’72 had $5.73 worth by ’79 — assuming no leverage; could’ve financed it for 30 years at 7.43% with 25% down in ’72.
So would you have had the stones? Would your spouse have left you?
“It’s simple, but it isn’t easy.”
Recent sale report.
Still waiting to see what happened with that possible decent hit on the Yaletown condo on Homer, but this one has come through and so let’s see what these guys have been up to.
The details…
101 -1633 w 10th ave, Vancouver.
Paid 1.16 August 2017
Sold 1.11 November 2018
Originally asking 1.32
Assessment 1.07
So they covered the assessment number but not the buy price.
After expenses probably a 110k clip to the kisser…
M44BC
https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/1633-west-10th-avenue/101
Thank you, Garth.
Excellent piece!
Lat blog, you stated that areas outside 416 may drop but 416 would not see the same drop.
However, I could understand that prime 416 areas may hold their own, but 416 is huge and has some awful pockets which I feel will drop just as the 905 areas.
For example, parts of Scarborough, North Etobicoke, pockets of Jane and St. Clair . Weston Road, and even homes near the Toronto Western hospital are shockers. I really cannot see why anyone would want to spend their good money there in a down market, if they had a choice. This is why I believe that even 416 real estate prices will decline.
As well, it is people who buy houses and when they see prices dropping or staying the same, interest rates rising, why would they want to burden themselves with over a million loan.
However, if they are unaware of the news, or listen to “fake” news, then I guess they will keep buying.
But, if prices correct, I cannot feel sorry for those who were oblivious to logic or immersed in their greed with the anticipation of rising prices.
I have been mulling over similar thoughts as our blog host.
From what I read and see and the personal anecdotes I hear everyday, people are incredibly stressed financially and just barely making it through every fourteen days til payday. prices for everything are creeping up, and monthly credit payments are growing now and everyone feels it.
So where are we really, in this odd-seeming moment of calm before….whatever?
My gut tells me this says it as well as anything:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gq_bjaI0NTo
We are so screwed.
If even a skilled wordsmith like Garth lapses into the (common) misuse of “begs the question” . . . the barbarians must be at the gates.
‘Begging the question’ occurred because the facts I presented assumed a conclusion, but did not necessarily validate it. Thus, the question hung. Still does, barbarians or no. – Garth
#4 JSS on 11.18.18 at 12:52 pm
Looks like Edmonton house prices are getting hammered.
Do rents drop as house prices drop?
………………………………………………………………………
Yes real estate is deader then Deadmonton, but rent isn’t dropping. The demand is there to rent vs buy
With the rate increases a sure bet, and a nice 10% correction, time to top up the ole preferred share holdings Garth?
@#5 Fish, OSFI’s responsibility is to ensure that the big federally regulated lenders are not carrying too much risk. If the risk merely transfers to smaller unregulated lenders, then that is a success from OFSI’s standpoint. If RBC or TD were in trouble, it could tank the entire economy and necessitate a massive bailout. If Joe’s Mortgage & Massage Therapy Emporium goes under, few will notice, and fewer will care.
These articles try to make it sound alarming that risky borrowers are turning towards less credible lenders. In fact, that is the unstated goal of the policy. Push that risk out to the murky corners of the financial landscape where nobody will ever qualify for a bailout. As a taxpayer, I can appreciate that.
Now that we’re past peak credit, even if houses only return 0% year on year (which is a pipe dream) people will be very sorry about their purchase. Financial suicide.
#3 Gunnevera on 11.18.18 at 12:52 pm
1/5th of all real estate in China is sitting empty. China collapse coming?
—————————————————————–
Kinda doubt it. Here is the latest report from a well known financial institution re: China:
“In China real GDP growth delcined slightly to 6.% in the second quarter from the year-earlier periood after staying at 6.8% for three consecutive quarters. In response, Beijing appears to be shifting from tentative policy easing toward more robust stimulus measures including increased credit, lower financing costs for smaller companies and accelerated fiscal spending on urban infrastructure.”
#10 Ogopogo on 11.18.18 at 1:11 pm
I see that people owning a home on leased land up there in the Sunny Okanagan are still asking delusional prices and few over 300g’s are selling. One area I have been monitoring many homes have been on the market for a year or so and sellers reluctant to lower the price. Obviously they aren’t aware of what is going on around them. 2 years before most of those places were asking 100 grand less than they are now. And now winter is setting in and nothing will sell.
Garth you mentioned tat soem markets were down 70%.
What is not mentioned is the bank selloffs in most communities where any price biught a property at the auction.
In the earliest days, in Boca raton, we bought a condo for 15K that sold for 300K the year before.
What people were told about that time is that the 70% crash number is the official Real Estate association number.
That is not the real number…
As I mentioned a week ago a guy beside at that auction for 300K bought 17 condos valued at almost 5 million the year before…
In the earliest part for the crash the best money is made on bank flush auctions
watch for those folks – banks sell at any price and no one but the brave or cash rich participate.
#37 leebow on 11.17.18 at 8:32 pm
Shawn Allen
Interestingly enough, Smoking Man, a known contrarian, seems to be the only man in history who would simultaneously seat on the options trading floor and care about market direction (by his own admission 5 or so years ago).
====================
smoking man is the shoeshine boy here – just do the opposite as he states and get rich.
When the real estate cartel say it is always a good time to buy, regardless of the state of prices or economy or your personal financial condition, then you know there is something wrong. But hey, what do expect from salesmen?
Eric Lascelles, RBC: “It’s a pretty good spot to be in, avoiding boom but avoiding bust as well. The rule changes that have been made have been effective in cooling these markets down.”
Robert Kavcic, BMO: “It looks like we’re settling into this environment in Canada where price growth is going to be flat in real terms.”
The pro-housing Benny Tal, CIBC: “Overall, yes the medicine is working. We are reaching some sort of landing, how soft it will be I don’t know, but we aren’t in a free-fall by any stretch of the imagination.”
Sure. Now let’s transfer all the mortgages from CMHC back to the banks, shell we?
Mind-blowing. ‘Avoiding boom’. I have seen lies, dams lies, Canadians inflation statistics, but this is beyond anything I have ever seen.
Trust the banks including with your savings at your own risk.
When you ask a real estate agent, its always a great time to buy.
And the price is ‘what the market says it is’
I find most of them beyond useless. They are purportedly representing their clients, but that has not been my expeience. You’re still on your own if you want good advice, and experienced advice.
The future trend is always– ‘buy now’–becuase that’s when and only when they get paid.
I’m kicking the tires for a country property (40-100 acres) not sure if I want to build , in Mulmur – Mono – Creemore.
Are prices slowly declining , seems stable ,not sure. Anybody know these areas?.
Credit bubbles caused by the central banks always burst….
http://www.investmentwatchblog.com/credit-bubbles-caused-by-the-central-banks-always-burst/
Word of Mouth.
The most powerful form of advertising and what marketers hope to create.
4 Fingers has it, by end of 2019 1st Qtr. we will learn how very bad RE price drops have been in almost ALL of the major RE markets in Canada. Meanwhile RE boards, their acolytes, will fudge numbers as much as they can to hide the truth – buying time, polishing the portholes on a sinking ship.
From now until then, investments lost, some ruined, fear, panic selling and all of that on the QT for NOW.
Word does get out eventually, it takes a few months, at least a Quarter, but word does get out (bad news travels fast, of course after personal verification; i.e., someone you know).
As for the Bank Economists: New Age “thoughts create”, wishful thinking – like a lot of the sensationalist pollster garbage about Cdn. debt suicide, RE prices taking off.
That and 2 bits doesn’t buy you a cup of coffee nowadays.
Even our intrepid Blogger doesn’t buy what they say either (and he has more than 2 bits to spare).
Trust in human nature my friends AND, that history does repeat.
#27 Ronaldo on 11.18.18 at 3:34 pm
#3 Gunnevera on 11.18.18 at 12:52 pm
1/5th of all real estate in China is sitting empty. China collapse coming?
—————————————————————–
Kinda doubt it. Here is the latest report from a well known financial institution re: China:
“In China real GDP growth delcined slightly to 6.% in the second quarter from the year-earlier periood after staying at 6.8% for three consecutive quarters. In response, Beijing appears to be shifting from tentative policy easing toward more robust stimulus measures including increased credit, lower financing costs for smaller companies and accelerated fiscal spending on urban infrastructure.”
*********
China’s housing market is having problems – it could crash.
The Chinese economy will be affected, as it the case with the current Trade War. They expect the economy to slow but not crash. But with cascading dominoes who knows, most won’t know till it is happening.
The extreme prices sellers were/still are asking, is enough to stall the market. Once people think prices are stupid expensive – the beginning of the end.
Piling on all the other factors (as Garth has explained over and over again) will be the fuel for downward momentum.
Let’s watch consumer spending as the Helocs start to tighten. The industry is trying to jump start the industry again with a bad source battery.
#12 Drill Baby Drill on 11.18.18 at 1:27 pm
There are a lot of hurtin Albertins in the oil patch and this past week was historic in it’s oil futures negativity. The NDP will be thrown out and a more common sense approach (I hope) will be used to balance Alberta’s books. Alberta is being held back by selfie boy and his minions. If you are a PM and have a hydrocarbon idealogy BUT hold the direct future of the oil industry ( TransMountain P/L) in your hands under direct control of the PMO and caucus. Canada wake up. All bank economists agree that the Canadian export market numbers are about to give a lesson in the extreme importance of our domestic oil market.
****************************
Not sure any political party will be able to instantly fix the Tar Sand issues just by being elected. But we should have a debate on what can be don for the sake of the Country. Why not a pipeline over the flat lands to Quebec, Churchhill? Send the oil to Europe and back into Canada. I would like cheaper oil prices and could help make us more competitive.
As I understand it even if we build another pipeline, we still need the customers. As it stands most oil that travels through the existing Trans Mountain pipeline ends up in the US? After peak oil the world seems to be awash in oil of better grade then the Oil sands. So what can we do, and when do we do it, and how much money goes to Citizens? Yes we need to do something about it, but what?
[end of 1st Qtr next year about RE price drops]
WHY DIDN’T ANYONE SAY ANYTHING?
Truth-deniers into 4 groups:
1) Those suffering from COGNITIVE DISSONANCE — the intellectual crisis that occurs when a failed belief system or philosophy is confronted with proof of its implausibility.
2) The INNUMERATES, the people who truly disrespect a legitimate process of looking at the data and making intelligent assessments. They are mathematical illiterates who embarrassingly revel in their own ignorance.
3) The POLITICAL MANIPULATORS, who cynically know what they peddle is nonsense, but nonetheless push the stuff because it is effective. These folks are more committed to their ideology and bonuses than the good of the nation.
4) The PAID HACKS, who are being paid to hold a certain view. As Upton Sinclair has noted, “It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it.”
“The denying of reality has been an issue, from Galileo to Columbus to modern times. Reality always triumphs eventually, but there are very real costs to it occurring later versus sooner .”
———————————————-
APPLY THE ABOVE to the PROTAGONISTS spoken about in today’s Blog and past Blog’s on the subject of The Future Ahead for RE Asset Values by the Intrepid Garth.
Taken from Steve Denning’s Forbes article “Lest We Forget: Why We Had A Financial Crisis”, Nov. 2011.
A MEA CULPA for the 2007 Financial Crisis.
He is worried that history will may again repeat. Imagine that.
#23 arfmoocat on 11.18.18 at 3:03 pm
#4 JSS on 11.18.18 at 12:52 pm
Looks like Edmonton house prices are getting hammered.
Do rents drop as house prices drop?
………………………………………………………………………
Yes real estate is deader then Deadmonton, but rent isn’t dropping. The demand is there to rent vs buy
****************************
I negotiated my rent down twice in 2 years. I do however live in the south and they haven’t stopped building here, so it’s a mix of lower prices and more competition.
Rent vs buy is a calculation, and when the price of buying comes down some renters join the homeowner group. Smart landlords know that being vacant for a month or two costs more than dropping your rent by 5-10%.
Whenever your lease is up, be smart, checkout padmapper and see what similar places are renting for. If it’s less than you are paying, have an honest conversation with your landlord, offer to sign another lease instead of going month to month. Everyone likes stability, and knowing your rent checks are coming for another 12 months is worth a slight discount to some.
BTW the same goes for ALL contracts. When your cell phone contract or cable or whatever runs out, check the competition, and then call your provider. Most of the time you can at least get that special deal which they are offering to new clients.
#17 Figure It Out
Absolutely. But would you have had the stones?
I agree with what I think your point is. I believe in holding a stock even when the market misprices it, if the fundamental story and future potential is still intact. But to your point, that’s not easy to do.
I believe Garth has made this point before that many people bailed and sold at a great loss at the bottom of the market in 2008/2009. And had they held a balanced portfolio and not panicked they would have been fine a few years later.
The benefit of mispricing by the market while collecting dividends is you get to reinvest at a discount.
Now if only there was a good discount to be had on a home in Toronto!
RE: “Ontario – our biggest province – has a larger deficit than the entire nation.”
Yeah we are in trouble here. Can’t print money, and can’t do much to cut things. Most of our budget goes to health care and paying the interest on the Provincial debt. Try to cut health care and you get this massive screaming mob wanting to lynch you. Interest is interest, you have to pay it.
Ontario may have an idea with the whole “trash “The Beer Store” movement.
I think Doug Ford’s government is right on point with this.
Basically, we have a foreign corporation telling our Provincial government how beer is going to be sold in our Province, and how the profits are going to be divied up. When the Libs tried to intervene, the foreign Corp invoked NAFTA and threatened to sue for lost profits.
Then Trump ripped up NAFTA and the USMCA is stuck in congress (probably forever).
So what to do? Well Dougie is suggesting trash the Beer Store. Why should all the profits flow out of the country? Why not have beer sold in supermarkets, tax the crap out of it, and send all the money to the Provincial treasury? Prices wouldn’t change. What would change, is that instead of a foreign corporation ordering our government around, and taking all the money (and threatening to sue if they don’t get what they think they are owed) we would have our government ordering around beer producers, taking all the taxes themselves, and using that to balance out our massive deficit problem.
I am on board with the “trash the beer store” campaign. Get rid of them. This money is ours, not theirs. We need it. Our Province is going bankrupt as we watch, and this is a revenue source we are ignoring.
And also a Provincial embarrassment. We are watching as a foreign corporation tells our government the rules as to how alcohol is to be sold in our Province. You cannot sell it in your supermarkets. We are the only ones who can sell it, and only according to our rules!
It is a Provincial disgrace. Our elected government tells corporations what to do, not the other way around.
#10 Ogopogo
https://www.castanet.net/news/Penticton/241603/real-estate-down-to-reality
#34 under the radar – It looks like about 13,000 per acre for that size, but if the market is slowly coming down you might pause for a reset. Only you know the intent and other facts – be cautious!
#28 Ronaldo
I wonder if you are talking about the homes that have had five different drywall contractors in them to fix the constantly cracking drywall, or the windows and doors that do not open or close after a couple of months.
Lots of deficiency work in certain areas for drywallers and carpenters.
No economist employed by a financial institution will ever call a crash. They are bought and paid for. The government will never call for a crash either. If the financial institutions and the government called for a crash imagine what kind of panic that would induce. People would pull their money out of banks and sell property as fast as they could. It would be a self fulfilling prophesy. Show me a time when a financial institution or a government as ever called for a crash.
Maybe today someone has the answer…
VOO is a USD S&P 500 ETF
VFV is a CAD ETF with 1 holding:VOO
VOO is down 0.1% so far this year.
VFV is up 5.6% so far this year.
What am I missing?
@#33 Cecil1
“They are purportedly representing their clients….”
+++++
I always shake my head when I hear them say that on tv or read it in an article.
Its as if they’re volunteering their time between scrubbing oil off baby ducks and helping blind people across the street to……. “help you make the most important decision of your life”
When in reality…… it’s all about the obscene commission for….. unlocking a door, stepping aside and letting the property do the rest……
The mortgage? Brokers and Banksters
The legalities? Lawyers or Notaries.
The Realtor? Smoke and mirrors….
@41 And don’t forget it’s easy to cheap-out on the site prep and foundation strength too. Difficult for carpenters and drywallers to put lipstick on that particular pig….
Have you ever tried renting in Toronto?
An apartment that used to rent for $1,000/mthly back in 2013 now goes for $1,800/monthly.
Three-bedroom units now go for $2,000/monthly+hydro in Scarborough.
Can you explain this for me? Why are rents skyrocketing? Is it too many people living in Toronto and too many people moving into the city under Kathleen Wynne’s Agenda 21 policy?
You might argue that the suburbs are dying, but this is exactly what is planned—for all of us to live in Toronto and suffer under high prices, overcrowds and very nasty gender politricks.
48 Soggyshorts
Maybe today someone has the answer…
VOO is a USD S&P 500 ETF
VFV is a CAD ETF with 1 holding:VOO
VOO is down 0.1% so far this year.
VFV is up 5.6% so far this year.
What am I missing?
Usd/cad exchange rate on Jan 1 2018 vs today.
Funny thing that people are all worried that the US Government could access their Visa bills to see if they are buying cannabis and deny them entry.
What is our Governments response, just put the stated purchase under some generic name. This will fool those investigators(Canadian ones anyways). All that they will have to do is to check any purchase after Oct 17th and if where there was no activity for those agencies before that or if the price matches cannabis prices your flagged.
Another question for those that use cannabis is if cannabis is really like alcohol and legal why do they need to register every user anyways? I do not have to register to buy wine, beer, or cigarettes, why cannabis?
I also do not understand the pricing here, because when I read that in Colorado you can buy medical grade cannabis for $1.94/gram and you paying 6-10 times that amount in Canada?
Wow. Did #39 Don really just use the term ‘Tar’ Sands?
Mercy. Cowtown, Deadmonton, Hurtin’ Albertans. It would be a mistake to think Alberta and the people who love this province are unaware of the general ‘schadenfreude’ on daily display from many outside this province. Our future has yet to be written, but there is one thing I know for certain. ‘Adapt, improvise, overcome’ may be a marine corp motto, but we have been living it in Alberta since at least 1885.
There is also more to this province than oil. That’s a good thing considering the US will be a world supplier of that commodity in a very short period of time. Other places may wish to perform an analysis of what drives their own local economy and what impact robotics, artificial intelligence, and digital connectivity might have on their futures. Maybe start with all those big bank towers in downtown Toronto. Everything they do can be done somewhere else and more cost effectively. Don’t even need to throw Trump or nationalism into the mix in that equation.
Nevermind, it’s just that the CAD dropped 5% this year.
That plus withholding taxes makes sense I guess.
#26 LS in Arbutus on 11.18.18 at 3:32 pm
Now that we’re past peak credit, even if houses only return 0% year on year (which is a pipe dream) people will be very sorry about their purchase. Financial suicide.
————————————————————–
Or revert to the more traditional tracking to inflation after the post-burst values settle out…
So I got a week off and decided to read The Big Short.
Now, the idiotic American banks and the idiotic American insurers and the idiotic American ratings agencies (note: from here on out, whenever I write “American” think “idiot”) used subprime mortgages with 2-year teaser rates (that were typically 3-4% lower than the final rate) to get people to buy homes they could not otherwise afford. Worse, these homeowners needed the housing market to keep rising, so they could refinance at the higher valuation and thus keep their home for a few more years. And the ultimate stupidity was bundling these mortgages first into bonds, and then into CDOs, and selling them all over the place, infecting the entire global market (the first buyers being insurers like AIG). American finance for the win.
In Canada we’re not facing a problem with subprimes (at least nowhere near the rate of the US), and – as far as I am aware – Canadian banks keep the mortgages they sell on their books. So the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Fund shouldn’t go bankrupt because they bought bad loans.
However, we are definitely approaching that 2-year part of the cycle where interest rates go up just as market valuation goes down (although in Canada we should probably think of it as a 3-4 year cycle due to ARMs not being subprime). These weren’t teaser rates, so the increase wasn’t 4%, but it also wasn’t expected. We’re up, what… 1.5%? With a total hike of 2-3% being quite likely?
So what happens when people refinance? They can’t count on a higher valuation – that’s completely out of the question. Whether they go adjustable or fixed, they’re going to be paying a higher or MUCH higher rate (if they go from adjustable now, to fixed in the future). And while I don’t think we’ll see ~10% of homeowners defaulting as they did in the US, we should see quite a few defaults.
So what happens? Do our banks take a tumble? Crash and burn? Is the big housing market correction just around the corner?
#48 SoggyShorts on 11.18.18 at 5:45 pm
Maybe today someone has the answer…
VOO is a USD S&P 500 ETF
VFV is a CAD ETF with 1 holding:VOO
VOO is down 0.1% so far this year.
VFV is up 5.6% so far this year.
What am I missing?
—————-
Currency Exchange
Garth,
Price declines are quite common throughout the entire Greater Vancouver area and across all housing categories, too. A quick look at “My Realty Check.ca”will confirm that asking prices are going down daily.
So, along with a continuing drop in sales, rising inventory levels, rising rates and buyer exhaustion, I’d say this goose is getting cooked.
Also, a buyer’s spending power goes a lot further these days; that $1M spent two years would have bought a crack shack while today, a buyer can get a much nicer house.
As for Vancouver’s West Side, some prices are selling for East Side prices according to “Flop”.
While it is true that the GTA contains a substantial chunk of Canada’s population, it seems to me that markets will continue to adjust to the new reality. Prices may yet decrease even in the most desirable areas, although not in any significant way. Meanwhile, outside of GTA & YVR the majority of Canadian buyers will reap the benefit of price drops as listings increase in volume.
The housing crash in the USA was tied to & an integral part of the great financial crisis of 2008. Canada’s economy may stall, but if the US economy continues to roar I doubt Canadian households will suffer the extreme price drops that occurred during 2008 in the USA.
Between rising rates, possible new regulations around HELOC’s & the stress test I expect 2019 to be another year with reduced sales volume. Naughty or nice, realtors are not likely to receive anything but lumps of coal this holiday season.
Garth asked, “Does this sound like it will end softly?”
Nope. The GTA is in a downward spiral, economically and socially.
Today, the only noteworthy happening in that deplorably overrated space was a record, 90th murder.
https://torontosun.com/news/local-news/toronto-records-its-record-breaking-90th-homicide
Uggh. I could make some sad but true joke, like ‘hey, the Blue Jays only had 89 losses and look here now at the murder rate of 90 surpassing that number……’
But the truth is much more sad and sobering.
Toronto and the GTA is a wildly overpriced, completely ghettoized wasteland of unaffordable housing in ‘communities’ where there is literally no sense of community. Only a sense of fear and isolation for far too many.
As people go to bed every night wondering who will be next, it can’t help but undermine any sense of confidence in quality of life and property values across the flat, boring landscape of the GTA.
Dead ahead is much more of the same, magnified by the soon-to-be terrible family tensions of real estate ‘investors’ who will be going under water. The murder rate will probably top 100 this year and more in the years ahead.
And this is a social shift, not a demographic one. Murder rates across North America began to decline in the 1990s, due to demographic shifting and an aging population. (Older people commit fewer murders, that’s not rocket science, though some politicians like idiotic Rudy Giuliani tried to take credit for this change in the 1990s) That shift has continued across the continent, and more of the population will be much older with each passing year for a few more decades.
But not in the GTA is murder and crime dropping. What is happening there is is a qualitative, sociological change brought about due to the character of and conditions facing the residents there.
It’s all on you, Toronto. A bloody mess of losers in an overpriced swampland of slanty semis and shaky condos, where jobs are slowly racing to the bottom, too. And your political elites enable this to get worse.
The coming property crash in the GTA will be epic as residents and wannabee residents realize what that place is really all about, and get the hell out.
That’s no Lhaso Apso
“However, plunging from $5 million to $3.5 million lacks tragedy.”
THAT was good and theologically LOGOS (to your Greek drama reference).
I know, Buonanotte.
As an experiment, last year I begun to focus a watch on a small but expensive area which was deemed “up and coming” in the 416 … I can verify that prices have been sliding and properties sitting on the market way longer this year.
more ‘fairy tales’ ?
Blankfein Says He’s Just Doing ‘God’s Work’ The chief executive of Goldman Sachs, which has attracted widespread media attention over the size of its staff bonuses, says he believes banks serve a social purpose and are “doing God’s work.”
old style corruption
https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/15/business/goldman-sachs-1mdb-scandal/index.html
“god” must be toxic looking at the violations
Violation Tracker Parent Company Summary
Parent Company Name:
Goldman Sachs
Ownership Structure:
publicly traded (ticker symbol GS)
Headquartered in:
New York
Major Industry:
financial services
Specific Industry:
banking & securities
Penalty total since 2000:
$9,602,492,860
Number of records:
26
https://violationtracker.goodjobsfirst.org/prog.php?parent=goldman-sachs
@40 agree
Real numbers, eg Not fuged packed
on or about Accurate ACTUALs
for example I had in my left had pant pocket in 2011
ACTUALLY $ 64.67 ,
Dear Garth:
Please go back into politics, take over the Conservative party and run this country.
PS:maybe build a couple pipelines so we no longer have to buy foreign oil?
Buy real estate in Dubai Gartho! Prices have dropped substantially.
No Deadmonton, no Hongcouver, no Turdonto!
Just West of Toronto there is a listing just off the 401. Its a 3 acre forest piece of land for $149,900 with a cute little clearing for the family. The agent is flogging this with no hydro or services but its multi-use, so just add a place to live – like a tent – or what? This was no joke, but am still laughing.
Unbelievably, the price for the Western Canadian Select heavy oil fell to a gut-wrenching $14.65 yesterday down from a high of $58 in May. Tar sands oil is now selling at an amazing $40 discount to U.S. West Texas Oil which is trading at $56.
Government cupboards are nearly bare
Great g Sir Turner…and
To quote your blog entry quotation…”Eric Lascelles, RBC: “It’s a pretty good spot to be in, avoiding boom but avoiding bust as well. ”
True fact it is that as we mature, we realize how much drama in life costs us in business matters. Those Boom & Bust moments are hard to time, and more akin to Gambling or crap shoots than strategic and safe life plans.
In direct relation to this boom / bust , I am amazed at the number of $700 – $900 lease takeovers on the marketplace! Actually better value to lease/ purchase 2019 than take over those used leases.
Very telling of what is to come in Real Estate, Automotive…..Career wages. There will be no soft landing, But a painful destructive one.
Nite all
regarding heavy oil price in Alberta
Heavy-oil producers are getting 40 percent of what they normally would be paid if we had access to markets,” said Grant Fagerheim, CEO of Calgary-based Whitecap Resources, which produces about 60,000 barrels per day.
He estimates the price differential costs Canadian producers up to $100 million per day in lost revenue at current levels.
…. “We are basically giving this stuff away,” analyst Martin King of GMP FirstEnergy told a Calgary Herald columnist.
It is never just one event but a bunch of them. The Alberta government will bleed losses from this causing all levels of government to raises tax revenue
Another kick int eh face to the economy
It’s rarely one thing that sets a recession event in to play.
BTW several large Hedgies managing clients money just went dark from NATGAS shorting.
100’s of millions – poof! The customers also owe millions because the play wasn’t hedged
We are starting to see who’s swimming naked
PS: oil just had its Ass handed to itself on a platter again.
Ouch my beloved Canada.
#48 SoggyShorts on 11.18.18 at 5:45 pm
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Well ya, VFV is priced in poloz peso and VOO is US$.
VOO along with IVV and SPY track the 500 very tightly in their native US$. VFV is simply the same holding in CA$ which are not equivalent.
Same for say tse:VIU and nyse:VWO.
Sorry…
VWO and VEE.
Smoking Man on 11.18.18 at 6:25 pm
18 months ago I cashed out, sold shlong branch.. Moved to California to gladly pay 30% income tax VS T2s 53% theft. Vegas every second weekend.
Shlong branch proceeds doubled on very aggressive risk taking. In a much lower tax environment.
That’s why the teachers in this dog pound hate me. Convinced safe spaces the only way one lives and wins.
Brainwashed idiots..
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48 soggy
Recheck your source 1 year return on fact sheets are 17.87 and 17.85.
Google directed me to an old fact sheet first.
However you would see minor difference due to withholding taxes.
#72
You mean who was swimming naked shorts, beautiful strategy, from what I understand some clients were not aware the brokerage was even using this system.
And yes they have to settle accounts(liquidate) tomorrow morning, should be a once in a lifetime wake up call.
It amazes me how doomers are still bearish on GTA housing. They have been so wrong these last 9 years, and still they yammer about a housing bust. No way. Not unless we have another major financial crisis. Regardless, in 10 years GTA RE will be worth much more than it is today.
My first born married a lesbo. She killed his dream of being a poet. A music man. She talked him into selling wigs.
She’s gone, hopefully he makes a come back to doing what he loves.
It won’t be job.
Go Ryan, I did a good job as a dad no matter what the middle kid tells everyone.
https://youtu.be/R3iX0SUQpPg
Is that Trump’s new dog or another porn star? Stormy pooch. She is cute.
#34 under the radar on 11.18.18 at 4:23 pm
I’m kicking the tires for a country property (40-100 acres) not sure if I want to build , in Mulmur – Mono – Creemore.
Are prices slowly declining , seems stable ,not sure. Anybody know these areas?.
——————/———————
Hello Under the Radar,
I have no idea of the areas you request further insights into.
However:: the purchase of Real Estate ,including Agricultural designated land, is a serious consideration at this time.
You will notice that Garth invests in properties that make immediate sense, buying, converting/ restoring and turning them into a value proposition. He does not just flip titles. He imbues them with value and finds a ready Investor.
This reminds me of the story about the Farmer who wins the million dollar lottery, and the news castor asks him ” what are you going to do with the money?” .
The Farmer answers, ” well, I guess I will keep on farming until that money is all gone as well….”
You must add value…finding the dirt is the easy part.
Extreme caution my blog dog friend!
#36 Dolce Vita
Word of Mouth.
So very true, my field of work takes me to various locations across the city, from the downtown and midtown office towers out to the suburbs and into the field (construction-infrastructure).
Whispers are already starting but its not mainstream yet. I do agree that by the end of Q1 2019 people will be talking– when that happens watch how fast the decline accelerates.
in 2017 people where bragging they made 100K a year in property– in 2019 people will be bragging they saved 100K a year by waiting.
From my observations- surprisingly the suits in the office towers seem to be really concerned about the rising cost of money– these are people who are clearing in the 100-150K range minimum. I overheard the same thing on job sites.
from my point of view and talks with various people- it seems the suits just overspent- HELOC $ on new cars, boats, vacations etc… where as the working grunts in the field are more speculators- purchased spec condos or homes up in the north end of York Region or even farther with the minimum down hoping to strike it rich.
funny how greed transcends all education levels, social class levels.
#78 Reynolds531 on 11.18.18 at 8:30 pm
48 soggy
Recheck your source 1 year return on fact sheets are 17.87 and 17.85.
************************
I was working with YTD, not 1 year, so the numbers are a little different.
The problem was that I didn’t realize the CAD had lost 5% this year so far. I feel like I’ve been doing “times 1.31” calculations forever, but in truth, Jan 1 was only 1.25
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BC is pooched. From the Kelowna news:
“Addressing attendees at a housing conference in Vancouver on Sunday, Horgan said the government will have to work with partners including Indigenous communities, transgender and social justice advocates and women’s groups to resolve the crisis.
Horgan said it’s not just affecting those who have small incomes, but is creeping into the middle-class too.
He said his government is doing its best to ensure that critical work staff such as teachers, nurses and construction workers have houses so that they can build the economy.
British Columbia should not be a place to fear because of unaffordable housing, Horgan said.”
It’s All Greek to me
#68 Gravy Train on 11.18.18 at 1:55 pm responded:
#60 Shawn Allen on 11.18.18 at 11:19 am
“Regarding gamma and delta and Black-Scholes, Warren Buffett’s advi[c]e is: ‘Beware of Greeks bearing formulas.’” No, Buffett said, “Beware of geeks bearing formulas.” It’s, of course, a play on the paraphrase of Virgil’s words (from the Aeneid), “Beware of Greeks bearing gifts.” Shawn, you mixed your metaphors! :)
***************************************
Point taken…
But here is another variation that works:
“Beware of Formulas bearing Greeks.”
#61 Stan Brooks masquerading as Toronto Hater
Stan you are the biggest loser that has ever posted on this blog. I can only imagine how miserable and useless a life you have led. You are a frustrated moron who vents blather and nonsense on this blog and the kind Mr. Turner realizes that you provide the comic relief we all need and hence are tolerated. Go back to your straight jacket you mindless moron…P.S. Your hated Leafs were in first place in the NHL on Saturday without their star Auston Matthews playing or the talented and unsigned William Nylander…
In YVR it is not just the uber high-end properties that are decreasing in value. There is weakness at all price points (although more at the higher end); duplexes, east-side homes, the burbs etc. Painful for some for sure who recently over-leveraged. However, after a few more years of this we will hopefully end up with a city which is somewhat more affordable for the next generation to make a go of it. Should the teachers, firefighters, police, small business owners, and middle income workers have to commute in to YVR for their jobs from Langley, Abbotsford, Chiiliwack? The way it was going under the BC Liberals, without getting a start with the “family plan; inheritance, gifting of huge sums”, it was impossible for the next generation. I don’t care that my place is going down in value; it’s paid off and when I signed up to live here years ago YVR was a great place with strong communities. I have no interest in living in Monaco.
There is never a soft landing. We haven’t even declined much yet. We’ve got nothing but headwinds as it relates to real estate prices. If rates continue to increase both equities and real estate will continue to trend down. Lower rates helped drive them both up and higher will do the opposite.
#85 soggy.
No problem bud. Looks like you got piled on for asking!
Now if they only had an SP500 plus 25 fund, so you could net out people who “front run” index changes!
@61
As someone whose grandparents settled in downtown Toronto, parents were raised in the old city, and now myself having lived in the core for nearly two decades, I’m afraid I have to agree. The real estate mania has enabled — or at least amplified — an insidious and frightening cultural shift throughout the 416.
Some will naively or defensively claim the “world class city” trope, but that facade falls away faster than cheap glass panels from a Bay Street condo tower. Being the most populous city in Canada doesn’t mean anything when daily life is isolating, expensive, and angry.
Sure there are plenty of friendly, nice people here. Too bad they’re too stressed and frightened to introduce themselves. Toronto the Good has been gone for a while now.
For all the wrinklies, best line I heard all day:
“At my age I pee in Morse code, dots and dashes” :)
Garth,
Today you finally wrote THE post. Congrats. It will happen as you wrote it. It.
IS.
OOOOOVVVVVEEEEERRRRRRR.
Bye bye real estate: Hello normal productive Canada. Welcome back to the arts. We missed you small business! Real estate has been the evil holding this country back.
Ciao Bello!
I fail in the “worst is yet to come” camp. Canada has the largest baby boomer bulge (proportionally) of any nation and we still haven’t seen the avalanche of detached housing that will surely come on to the market as the geezers finally realize they don’t even want to negotiate the steps up to the front door, let alone mow the grass.
And who is going to buy them? Surely not my three kids or their many friends that I talk to. House buying is no longer even a dream for them. With stagnant incomes at best and a job market that is spewing out more and more below poverty line pay checks, they can do the math. They’re estatic to cohabit so they can share the rent of a one or two bedroom apartment.
Also, what is with the doom and gloom here associated with low oil prices? Surely low pump costs benefit far more Canadians and the businesses they work for than it hurts?
#48 SoggyShorts
Even though “VOO “has only returned about 2% to date for 2018, I think now would be a good entry point. Over the past 8 years, it has had an average annual growth rate around 13%. In 2018, it has moved from the top of the trend channels to the bottom, and the last one-month candle stick was green. This indicates, to me, that the bottom trend channel is being respected, and it could be a 13% plus for 2019. I can tell you more about that this time next year
The “soft” landing will continue for years. A gradual decay of value relative to other asset classes.
The FED will slow down (or stop) as will the BOC prolonging the slow motion housing pain.
S&P500 to 3753
TSLA to $525
#3 Gunnavere, News Flash, China has already collapsed. The same type of propaganda that keeps wankers like Trudeau in power is also hiding the fact the China is in free fall. Credit in China has poached, the PBOC has been caught with it’s pants down, there’s no more American money flooding in, the PRC spent money like a Trudeau paving roads in Palestine, and they pissed trillions down the drain. Did you see their naval excersises last week? One renovated 50 year old Russian carrier and twenty WWIi surplus “destroyers”.
The truth about China is that they are by definition a paper tiger, if not for the billions of dollars stores they would have collapsed a decade ago. Trump has called their bluff. Now China, like Russia did, has collapsed under the weight of thier in spending. Without new money coming in they’re screwed.
China’s stick market isn’t underpinned by globbsl pension funds and trillion dollars money runners, 80% of Chinese equity is owned by retail investors, ergo, when the Shenzen collapsed 70% recently, the same ratio of Chinese lost the equivelant in life savings. Expect a large number of foreign owned houses to list in Canada at hefty discounts.
Meanwhile, America is strong, with 57% of citizens having less than $1000 in the bank. The new retirement plan is to die at your desk, or face plant on the factory floor as gracefully as you can.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/16/heres-how-to-overcome-poor-retirement-planning.html
[next morning for me]
Off topic but VIGILANTISM alive and well in BC with Gov. as its fan boy (today from Twitter):
https://i.imgur.com/4YkBGd5.jpg
Chief AG now has his own “high brow” Police Tips Line.
Well, this ought to send them scurrying into the wall crack bowels of BC for the vengeance alone.
Soft landing soon to be known as the “spliff effect”, with a chart based on the “spliffer curve”, not to be confused with the Laffer Curve
260 miles. Two dogs, a wife that never slept.
I’m driving through barstow, will stop for alien jerky. Will I make it to work by 9am.
That’s what a coin toss is for.
While I own GTA property, I am appalled by the greed of it all. Not by everyone, but by some.
Families are forced to split further and further away from each other because of greed monsters like the example below…
Bought in April for 1.1M, ZERO work done and listed for 1.4 seven months later.
Link: https://housesigma.com/site/listing/02Zpj391zvP3DrK8
Re: #1 binkybarnes on 11.18.18 at 12:26 pm
Sometimes longshots come in first.
Re: #4 JSS on 11.18.18 at 12:52 pm
Mostly townhouses and apartments are what people rent there. The prices of the resale apartments and resale townhouses today are half or less of what they sold for way back in the summer of 2007 in Edmonton, spring 2008 in Calgary. It costs about twice as much to rent as it does to buy. No one is listing anymore and as more housing goes into foreclosure it means less stock as the banks always price all their foreclosures too high so they sit for endless years on mls.
#88 Shawn Allen on 11.18.18 at 9:34 pm
“Point taken…. But here is another variation that works: ‘Beware of formulas bearing Greeks.’” Yes, Shawn, that does work! Very good! Buffett may have had your triple pun in mind!
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greeks_(finance)
#48 SoggyShorts on 11.18.18 at 5:45 pm
Maybe today someone has the answer…
VOO is a USD S&P 500 ETF
VFV is a CAD ETF with 1 holding:VOO
VOO is down 0.1% so far this year.
VFV is up 5.6% so far this year.
What am I missing?
—————————————————————
That you don’t know enough about markets to be investing your own money.
@#100 Dolce Vita
David Eby’s anonymous tip line….what a joke.
As if that will fix decades of corruption and billions in vacant or flipped properties. Off shore money runs this Province and if Revenue Canada doesnt give a s##t , then no one in govt. gives a s##t.
Perhaps he should focus his energy on something he can actually eradicate a la , the “Dumpster Fire” aka ICBC( govt car insurance monopoly for all you non BC residents).
Another ICBC Rate rise announcement expected in Dec for the 2019 car insurance season.
They have a long way to go to recoup the $1.3 Billion in losses for 2018……
Apparently ICBC has capped a “concussion” injury in car accidents to $5500….that should cover one month’s worth of mortgage payments and property taxes in the Lower Brainland for anyone in a car accident severe enough to sustain a concussion…..more cuts to come while the rates continue to skyrocket.
Perhaps the govt should unload the Dumpster to eradicate the “fiscal fire”?
Private car insurance? Gasp! The novelty!
And lay off all those unionized , NDP card carrying govt employee members?
Well, they dont call them “Dippers” for nothing.
#99 Jacob Rune
“Meanwhile, America is strong, with 57% of citizens having less than $1000 in the bank. The new retirement plan is to die at your desk, or face plant on the factory floor as gracefully as you can.”
57% of Americans equates to 125 million folks…. To boot, these 57% probably have little to no health coverage so they will be spared having to work into their 80s because they won’t live long enough because of poor to no medical coverage. America the Great!
Exaggerate much? 11.3% of Americans were without health insurance this year, up from 10.9% under the Obama administration. Now let’s talk about how many Canadians are on wait lists for family doctors or common tests such as MRIs. – Garth
#57 El Joko on 11.18.18 at 6:21 pm
So I got a week off and decided to read The Big Short.
Now, the idiotic American banks and the idiotic American insurers and the idiotic American ratings agencies (note: from here on out, whenever I write “American” think “idiot”) used subprime mortgages with 2-year teaser rates (that were typically 3-4% lower than the final rate) to get people to buy homes they could not otherwise afford. Worse, these homeowners needed the housing market to keep rising, so they could refinance at the higher valuation and thus keep their home for a few more years. And the ultimate stupidity was bundling these mortgages first into bonds, and then into CDOs, and selling them all over the place, infecting the entire global market (the first buyers being insurers like AIG). American finance for the win.
In Canada we’re not facing a problem with subprimes (at least nowhere near the rate of the US), and – as far as I am aware – Canadian banks keep the mortgages they sell on their books. So the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Fund shouldn’t go bankrupt because they bought bad loans.
However, we are definitely approaching that 2-year part of the cycle where interest rates go up just as market valuation goes down (although in Canada we should probably think of it as a 3-4 year cycle due to ARMs not being subprime). These weren’t teaser rates, so the increase wasn’t 4%, but it also wasn’t expected. We’re up, what… 1.5%? With a total hike of 2-3% being quite likely?
So what happens when people refinance? They can’t count on a higher valuation – that’s completely out of the question. Whether they go adjustable or fixed, they’re going to be paying a higher or MUCH higher rate (if they go from adjustable now, to fixed in the future). And while I don’t think we’ll see ~10% of homeowners defaulting as they did in the US, we should see quite a few defaults.
So what happens? Do our banks take a tumble? Crash and burn? Is the big housing market correction just around the corner?
—————————————————————-
You should probably read a bit more on the crisis. Subprime was not the issue, the rate of defaults of subprime borrowers as a share of total defaults FELL during the GFC. It was generally prime borrowers with a bit of wealth who levered up to chase housing who defaulted.
Canada does have a massive securitized mortgage market, it’s just that they only do it with CMHC insured mortgages. This give buyers some comfort, but if they knew that CMHC doesn’t do any document review at inception, only at default, and they can put mortgages back to holders if there are any irregularities, they probably would think twice.
And we absolutely have subprime in Canada. I was renting a house with a prime +10% mortgage with a LTV at inception of 100%. Handed out by one of the big 5. Also had a second from a private lender at 7% iirc.
Add into that, all the amateur mortgage lenders using their HELOCs, to get in the game and the whole system looks as wobbly as the US in 06 or 07.
Ho Hum
Another year another APEC photo op squandered in empty promises, navel gazing and announcements that mean nothing.
Is it me or do ALL the leaders in this photo look like they wish they were anywhere but APEC….?
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-apec-summit/asia-pacific-leaders-fail-to-reach-consensus-on-apec-communique-idUSKCN1NN05N
Even “selfie” looks bored……
#72 mogulrider on 11.18.18 at 7:41 pm
Serious question – what’s the actual “leave it in the ground” price then?
@54 our friend the Jaguar wrote:
“… Maybe start with all those big bank towers in downtown Toronto. Everything they do can be done somewhere else and more cost effectively. ”
Yep, that can be said about a lot of business. We have to lower our standard of living to compete; something that we have not done well yet as a society.
How do you tell someone that they’ll have to have a 50% decline in standard of living; pay for medical care, road network, sharing houses, clean up after themselves, repair clothes and other things rather than replace, etc, etc?
It’s really easy to go up the economic ladder, incredibly painful to go down.
#93 BlorgDorg you want a shift? Here it is. Our lives are worth little now. Almost nothing to the fellow humans preying upon us – while the crime and poverty industries – and they are – continue doling out fat salaries to themselves. Never mind, T2 will drop by with a rousing speech.
The left drops by with damage control:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/toronto-breaks-homicide-record-from-1991-but-numbers-don-t-tell-whole-story-1.4887417
Meanwhile at Square One shopping mall…(and a few weeks ago at Yorkdale Mall young armed “youths” were robbing people at gunpoint. Yes for real. They need to be locked up as adults.)
https://old.reddit.com/r/toronto/comments/9yd8f7/2_carjackings_mississauga_both_armed_with_handguns/
#51 Wise Canadian Gen Zer on 11.18.18 at 6:00 pm
Can you explain this for me? Why are rents skyrocketing? Is it too many people living in Toronto and too many people moving into the city under Kathleen Wynne’s Agenda 21 policy?
————————————————————–
You mean the sitting ON MPP from Don Valley West from the party without official status in the provincial legislature? She’s in her secret bunker on Eglinton Ave plotting while the LRT construction rumbles on is she?
More likely something like lack of a coherent mixed use housing plan in Toronto and Northern / Western / Eastern GTA coupled with a transit plan to move people to where their work is with a side helping of a population who seems to want to (deserves to) live within roughly 2 blocks of their parents and levels of local government that have been ineffectively arguing about things like a 1 stop subway routing and / or false morality masking intolerance, petty-mindedness and what looks like a general lack of a Big Plan beyond cheap theatrics and funding cuts to people at the lower end of the economic spectrum…
Or is that part of the A21 manifesto, plan or whatever?
#12 Drill Baby Drill
Don’t hold your breath on any pipelines being put in the ground any time soon.
The timeline under “existing” legislation is 18 months from the time an application is deemed to be complete to a cabinet decision at the end of the process. Bill c-69 now extends that to 29 months, not including the time required by a proponent to complete an impact assessment report, which can add many more months.
Bill c-69 also references the potential for time extensions at least 40 times, significantly reducing the probability that any project will meet legislated timelines.
Canadian Energy Pipeline Association
wow. another destructive day in the preferred share market. i guess Ryan’s “support” didn’t hold..
No housing plan; no energy plan; no military plan; no transportation plan; no environmental plan; no free trade plans; no medical care plan, and the list is long. What a joke the twin pipeline is going to be for example. No modern bulk carrier can travel through the Lions Gate Bridge to the bulk offloading terminal because a ship’s clearance is just 200 feet. Canada has another port in BC that can did this all.
#114 TurnerNation on 11.19.18 at 8:43 am
#93 BlorgDorg you want a shift? Here it is. Our lives are worth little now. Almost nothing to the fellow humans preying upon us – while the crime and poverty industries – and they are – continue doling out fat salaries to themselves. Never mind, T2 will drop by with a rousing speech.
The left drops by with damage control:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/toronto-breaks-homicide-record-from-1991-but-numbers-don-t-tell-whole-story-1.4887417
Meanwhile at Square One shopping mall…(and a few weeks ago at Yorkdale Mall young armed “youths” were robbing people at gunpoint. Yes for real. They need to be locked up as adults.)
https://old.reddit.com/r/toronto/comments/9yd8f7/
—
Don’t you worry, bill c71 will take care of that, criminals will line up to return their handguns.
#110 Tater on 11.19.18 at 8:29 am
#57 El Joko on 11.18.18 at 6:21 pm
So I got a week off and decided to read The Big Short.
Now, the idiotic American banks and the idiotic American insurers and the idiotic American ratings agencies (note: from here on out, whenever I write “American” think “idiot”) used subprime mortgages with 2-year teaser rates (that were typically 3-4% lower than the final rate) to get people to buy homes they could not otherwise afford. Worse, these homeowners needed the housing market to keep rising, so they could refinance at the higher valuation and thus keep their home for a few more years. And the ultimate stupidity was bundling these mortgages first into bonds, and then into CDOs, and selling them all over the place, infecting the entire global market (the first buyers being insurers like AIG). American finance for the win.
In Canada we’re not facing a problem with subprimes (at least nowhere near the rate of the US), and – as far as I am aware – Canadian banks keep the mortgages they sell on their books. So the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Fund shouldn’t go bankrupt because they bought bad loans.
However, we are definitely approaching that 2-year part of the cycle where interest rates go up just as market valuation goes down (although in Canada we should probably think of it as a 3-4 year cycle due to ARMs not being subprime). These weren’t teaser rates, so the increase wasn’t 4%, but it also wasn’t expected. We’re up, what… 1.5%? With a total hike of 2-3% being quite likely?
So what happens when people refinance? They can’t count on a higher valuation – that’s completely out of the question. Whether they go adjustable or fixed, they’re going to be paying a higher or MUCH higher rate (if they go from adjustable now, to fixed in the future). And while I don’t think we’ll see ~10% of homeowners defaulting as they did in the US, we should see quite a few defaults.
So what happens? Do our banks take a tumble? Crash and burn? Is the big housing market correction just around the corner?
—————————————————————-
You should probably read a bit more on the crisis. Subprime was not the issue, the rate of defaults of subprime borrowers as a share of total defaults FELL during the GFC. It was generally prime borrowers with a bit of wealth who levered up to chase housing who defaulted.
Canada does have a massive securitized mortgage market, it’s just that they only do it with CMHC insured mortgages. This give buyers some comfort, but if they knew that CMHC doesn’t do any document review at inception, only at default, and they can put mortgages back to holders if there are any irregularities, they probably would think twice.
And we absolutely have subprime in Canada. I was renting a house with a prime +10% mortgage with a LTV at inception of 100%. Handed out by one of the big 5. Also had a second from a private lender at 7% iirc.
Add into that, all the amateur mortgage lenders using their HELOCs, to get in the game and the whole system looks as wobbly as the US in 06 or 07
…………………………………………………………….
HELOCKs should be outlawed, too many smart ass millennials get themselves into hot water via easy money. A HELOCK is always your last resort. With the upcoming condo crash these millennials should wait it out. The pickings will be nice as the investment condos that the have HELOCKs on come due for possession will flood the market in 2020 and beyond. The left over ones will be stuck to carry them and rent them out to try to keep from going bankrupt. They bought too early and now they will loose investment money as the prices start to fall. It’s going to be a bloodbath in the condo market.
#76 Smoking Man on 11.18.18 at 8:26 pm
Smoking Man on 11.18.18 at 6:25 pm
18 months ago I cashed out, sold shlong branch.. Moved to California to gladly pay 30% income tax VS T2s 53% theft. Vegas every second weekend.
Shlong branch proceeds doubled on very aggressive risk taking. In a much lower tax environment.
That’s why the teachers in this dog pound hate me. Convinced safe spaces the only way one lives and wins.
Brainwashed idiots..
…………………………………………………………
Cashed out? You were forced out.
Didn’t you get refused by the bank in extending your HELOCK? Running out of cash. You had to sell if I recall, you were losing the home without a job on the horizon.
As of December 1st, the housing market will essentially go dormant. Hibernation time.
We will see what materializes in April.
I don’t think it will be good.
‘as people go to bed every night wondering who will be next’. While the climbing murder rate in GTA is a cause for concern, time to rein in the fear factor. GTA population is 2.8 million in 2018. So your chance of being murdered is roughly one in 31,111 for the 2018 year. Meanwhile, tens of thousands of traffic accidents occur annually in Ontario. 2017 saw some 36,000 accidents. Traffic fatalities (all categories) in the GTA area for the past 3 years as per the official Toronto Police website: 65 in 2015; 77 in 2016; 62 in 2017 & as per the Toronto Star as of June 2018 there were 17 pedestrian & 3 bicyclist deaths 2018 year to date. I very much doubt most people go to bed at night & worry about who might die in traffic next & everyone’s chances of being involved in an injury accident are much higher than being murdered.
Exaggerate much? 11.3% of Americans were without health insurance this year, up from 10.9% under the Obama administration. Now let’s talk about how many Canadians are on wait lists for family doctors or common tests such as MRIs. – Garth
………………………….
Yah, let’s talk about that…are we proportionally increasing the number of doctors and MRI clinics and nurses and hospitals and schools and roads to accommodate 300,000 new immigrants every year ? Just wondering.
You are done here. – Garth
A few guys were talking about this on here recently.
Here is the American version.
I pay around $1800 CAD a year to haul my tools around.
My wife pays around $100 a year for a new pair of shoes.
Leg power, baby…
M44BC
“Find Out Which States Have the Most Expensive Car Insurance Rates in 2018.
There’s a lot that goes into determining how much you pay for car insurance. Your age, gender, marital status, driving record and perhaps most importantly your home address are all major factors. This makes it difficult to compare prices between car insurance companies without going through the hassle of obtaining very specific quotes. That’s why we crunched the numbers for you and created our newest map.
The data behind our map come from Insure.com, which provides lots of information on different insurance products, including health, life and auto insurance. They worked with Quadrant Information Services to calculate car insurance rates for a 40-year old man seeking full coverage from 6 different major carriers. They tabulated the price quoted in 10 zip codes for every state, looking for the average of a 2018 model-year version of America’s 20 best-selling vehicles. We mapped the average annual premium as a heat map, letting you easily and quickly see at a glance the states and regions with the best (and worst) rates.
Top 10 Most Expensive States for Buying Auto Insurance
1. Michigan: $2,239
2. Louisiana: $2,126
3. Florida: $2,050
4. Rhode Island: $1,852
5. Connecticut: $1,831
6. Washington, DC: $1,827
7. California: $1,731
8. Georgia: $1,668
9. Delaware: $1,600
10. Texas: $1,589
The good news? There are a few clusters of states with relatively cheap rates for insurance. Across the Northeast, Vermont ranks among the cheapest in the entire country at just $932. There’s also a smattering of states across the Midwest with affordable numbers, stretching from Pennsylvania ($1,130) all the way to Nebraska ($1,214). Oregon ($1,250), Idaho ($989) and Utah ($1,131) also appear to be favorable markets for motorists.
Moving up the pricing scale, there are 19 states shaded yellow, indicating a medium-to-high price range for car insurance. One of the most interesting states in this group is New York, where average rates include prices for New York City as well as rural upstate areas. Presumably insurance rates within the metro area are significantly higher than $1,361.
There are also 9 states at the high end of the spectrum, which we define as $1,600 or more, or about $133 a month. A number of explanations readily come to mind for why insurance is so expensive in these states. Insurance is regulated at the state level. For example, Michigan is the most expensive in the country at $2,239, well over $1,000 more than neighboring Ohio. Part of the explanation for why has to do with state-mandated no-fault insurance policies. This lets people claim insurance proceeds from a company regardless of who is at fault for the accident, and according to the Insurance Information Institute, Florida and Michigan are two states with no-fault conditions that make it easier to get money from car insurance companies.
It’s no surprise to see California topping the charts as one of the most heavily populated and well-trafficked states in the country. Los Angeles is literally the worst city in America in terms of congestion. The group of pink and red states from Louisiana ($2,126) to Georgia ($1,668) and Florida ($2,050) also makes a lot of sense. They each have large metro areas that suffer damage from hurricanes. Mississippi ($1,410) and Alabama ($1,235) simply don’t have any huge cities. Connecticut ($1,831) and Rhode Island ($1,852) are similarly near the top of the chart as wealthy exurbs of New York City, not to mention the fact that winters in the Northeast can be particularly harsh for drivers.”
18 November 2018
Visualization
https://howmuch.net/articles/average-cost-of-car-insurance-in-america
#103 Frank The Tank on 11.19.18 at 6:53 am
While I own GTA property, I am appalled by the greed of it all. Not by everyone, but by some.
Families are forced to split further and further away from each other because of greed monsters like the example below…
Bought in April for 1.1M, ZERO work done and listed for 1.4 seven months later.
Link: https://housesigma.com/site/listing/02Zpj391zvP3DrK8
——
This stuff happens all over – even out here within spitting distance of the Arctic Circle. A place I watched drop from 550K to selling under 470K in late 2015 is back up for sale again – untouched – barely even moved in to (almost no furniture), for 600K.
It will end when lots of folks like this get destroyed on their flip attempt. The house I mentioned above was likely bought via a variable rate mortgage, the taxes are 500.00/mo., and interest rates are going up steady.
I figure this place is draining the owner of no less than 28K per year in H+H, Insurance, Taxes, and Mortgage interest. He’s sneaking up on 100K in costs thus far, it took 3/4 of a year and multiple price drops to sell it last time – when rates were sub 3%. Pictures show an empty house that needs shingles and updating inside.
Come spring 2019, if he has to drop 50K to move it, he’ll be in the red. He needs to make over 15K just to beat what the same money would have done invested at 5.0% – and IMHO, he needs something for his time and effort too.
The way I see it – he’ll need a fool buyer to make anything, he’ll be lucky to break even, and chances are excellent that he’ll have ultimately just blown 3.5+ years incinerating 10’s of thousands of dollars.
#110 Tater is correct, sub-prime borrowers did not sink the US economy or cause the 2008 GFC. Middle class borrowers who levered up their homes to purchase more real estate had a far greater effect. I won’t say those middle class borrowers caused the GFC – it had multiple causes going back many years. But the spread of the idea that maximizing leverage to “invest” in real estate was the best way for the middle class to get ahead was a MAJOR contributor.
Poor people (i.e. sub-prime borrowers) go under all the time. That was nothing new, then or now. They have little money to begin with, and therefore the economy doesn’t miss them much when they become insolvent. What was new in 2007-2011 was the millions of over-leveraged middle class types going under. That was the death knell for lenders and the overall economy.
Interesting development for all those folks who thought it would be a good idea to purchase weed online using their credit cards.
Turns out our major credit card companies are actually all American companies (who knew?), and they share their purchase data freely with the US government, when it comes to purchases by non-US Citizens (ie, individuals without any rights under US law).
If you buy weed, and the US government finds out about it, you will be banned from entering the USA for life.
I believe you can apply for a waiver.
Oh, and now that our government is going to start collecting detailed records of all of our bank accounts, and since our government routinely shares our personal information with the USA for “anti terrorism” reasons, you can expect that if you used your bank card to buy weed, you will also likely be banned for life.
Wondering what happens when the Americans start looking at our investment portfolios (shared with the Canadian government by the banks at tax season) and find lots of pot stocks, and ETFs and ETNs and mutual funds containing pot stocks?
Maybe they’ll ban all those people too?
Sell your bitcoins now! it’s going to zero.
https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-46263998
tater
“should probably read a bit more on the crisis.”
without confirming or denying seem to be the common statement after paying big fines
Bill Black: How Many Lies Can the WSJ Pack into a Chart on Liar’s Loans?
Posted on February 5, 2016 by Yves Smith
Yves here. Bill Black is not happy about the revisionist history on liar’s loans. And separately, this piece is a useful exercise in the critical reading of narratives.
By Bill Black, the author of The Best Way to Rob a Bank is to Own One and an associate professor of economics and law at the University of Missouri-Kansas City. Originally published at New Economic Perspective
This is the second article in my series prompted by the Wall Street Journal report that “big money managers” want to bring back “liar’s loans.” Given that the best study of liar’s loans during the crisis found a fraud incidence of 90% — this is a startling proof of how openly addicted to fraud the “big money managers” remain. It demonstrates some of the terrible costs of the Department of Justice’s refusal to prosecute the fraudulent loan originators’ controlling officers.
In this installment I lay out briefly the lies that the banksters made, and continue to make, about liar’s loans and why those lies are so harmful. The WSJ chart on liar’s loans faithfully repeated those lies as if they were revealed truth. The chart is shown below. Let us count the lies.
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2016/02/bill-black-how-many-lies-can-the-wsj-pack-into-a-chart-on-liars-loans.html
As Tom Miller, the Nation’s longest serving state attorney general testified to the Fed a year before the acute phase of the crisis began:
[Many originators invent] non-existent occupations or income sources, or simply inflat[e] income totals to support loan applications. Importantly, our investigations have found that most stated income fraud occurs at the suggestion and direction of the loan originator, not the consumer…..
“Alt-A” is a double lie. “Alt” stands for “alternative” and “A” means “prime” quality loan – an ultra-low credit risk home mortgage loan. Taken together, the claim was that the lender used an “alternative” underwriting process that ensured that the loans made were ultra-low credit risk. Unless you think “not underwriting” one of the essential “4 Cs” of prudent lending (Capacity) is an “alternative” means of underwriting you know that word is a lie. As even the WSJ admits “Alt-A” loans had, by 2010, a 90+ day delinquency rate of “26%.” They were slime, not prime. The industry deliberately creates these lies to help them deceive customers, regulators, and others.
Lies 6-9: The chart separates liar’s loans and subprime – creating the sixth lie that the two categories are mutually exclusive. It then commits the seventh and eighth lies by purporting that subprime required and requires verification of the borrower’s income through “pay stubs and two years of tax returns” while liar’s loans purportedly required and require verification through “some combination of proof of assets, bank statements or tax returns.” It was, in reality, common to lend to borrowers with subprime credit scores without “pay stubs” or “tax returns.” By 2006, roughly half of all subprime loans were also liar’s loans.
The claim as to how liar’s loans were and are “documented” is more disingenuous. The reader is never told of the “4 Cs” required for prudent real estate lending, which lets the industry and the reporter to play fast and loose with the entire concept of underwriting. Note that the word “or” is used rather than “and” – “some combination of proof of assets, bank statements, or tax returns.” These forms of documentation, given the use of the word “or” are inherently vague, but they are also deceptive because they are not nearly equivalent and only documentation of income was in fact virtually never used.
“Proof of assets” and “bank statements,” like credit scores, are inherently incapable of answering the question (for any but the wealthiest few percent) of whether the borrower has the capacity to repay the loan – which requires verifying the borrower’s income, assets, and debts and other liabilities. Only “tax returns” can be used to verify the borrower’s income. But the purpose of liar’s loans is to inflate the borrower’s income, so the CEO of the lender is not about to verity the borrower’s income through checking his tax returns. To create the appearance of prudence, lenders on liar’s loans routinely required borrowers to sign IRS 4506-T consents allowing the lender (and any purchasers of the loan) to obtain a “transcript” of the borrower’s last two years of tax returns. (A transcript has all the key information boiled down.) But lenders, and purchasers, virtually never used these consents – even after they were put on notice that the fraud incidence on liar’s loans was 90 percent. Indeed, I do not know of any case where lenders verified the income reported on a sample of liar’s loans applications prior to funding them. Even after making the liar’s loans and knowing about the 90% fraud incidence I know of only one case, Countrywide, where the lender made an ex post review of a sample of liar’s loans that they had funded. Countrywide’s study confirmed that the loans were riddled with fraud – and Countrywide’s leaders responded by adopting what they called an “Extreme Alt-A” program modeled after Bear’s to dramatically increase the amount of fraudulent loans it made.
#80 Nothing to Say on 11.18.18 at 8:42 pm
It amazes me how doomers are still bearish on GTA housing. They have been so wrong these last 9 years, and still they yammer about a housing bust. No way. Not unless we have another major financial crisis. Regardless, in 10 years GTA RE will be worth much more than it is today.
______
Not if wages, living conditions, and congestion keep getting worse. Not if interest rates are 7+%.
Local residents of the GTA are already bailing, most of them are the youth (over 300% increase). These kids have had enough time in Toronto to realize they will not be getting ahead in life as costs are too high, and wages are too low; for the vast majority (see Friday’s blog post). These folks are also the primo home buying demographic.
Canadians are leaving Canada too – Canada has an emigration rate over 500% higher than the US does – even with Trump at the helm.
Then there is also the matter of new immigrants to Canada going back home – like nearly 40% of them within 10 years of arriving according to some studies.
Just looking at the real numbers – it seems the GTA will soon consist mainly of just Seniors and new arrivals. None of these folks are interested in buying a million dollar spore factory…
#127 Alistair McLaughlin on 11.19.18 at 12:12 pm
Umm, and how much did spicing these sub-primes with AAA salting contribute?
#112 asked
Serious question – what’s the actual “leave it in the ground” price then?
I’d say 30 bucks LOL
These guys are bleeding blood
They are negotiating with the government to go APEC and decrease production
Nov. 13, 2018
MOSCOW — An independent Russian magazine has raised over $370,000 to pay a fine to the government.
The New Times magazine was fined 22 million rubles last month for failing to notify authorities on time of receiving foreign funding. The fine, which had threatened to force the magazine to shut down, followed recent legislation aimed at what the Kremlin sees as foreign influence in Russian media.
The New Times’ editor-in-chief, Yevgeniya Albats, said on Twitter on Tuesday that the magazine has raised more than the necessary amount in just four days after it announced the fund-raising campaign.
Government critics and media experts have viewed the fine as retribution by the government for the New Times’ critical reporting
Putin’s Bodyguards Rewarded with Land and Power
Print article
Published: Monday, 19 November 2018 16:15
Written by Roman Anin
Once responsible just for his physical security, President Putin’s bodyguards now have impressive titles — and land worth many millions in Russia’s most expensive region. The workers and pensioners who previously held the property say they were swindled out of it.
https://www.occrp.org/en/28-ccwatch/cc-watch-indepth/8922-putin-s-bodyguards-rewarded-with-land-and-power
#132 IHCTD9 – Many thousands have left during the past few years especially in the tech areas. Along 401 small centers have increased. First an industrial park was formulated; then companies moved in followed by the home builders. All is moving away from the GTA, but close enough for business. The other trend is that recent university grads cannot afford to move into Toronto, and their skills are going to the smaller communities. They can now buy a real home, live a better lifestyle, living costs are lower, and on a net basis earn a great income.
“Exaggerate much? 11.3% of Americans were without health insurance this year, up from 10.9% under the Obama administration. Now let’s talk about how many Canadians are on wait lists for family doctors or common tests such as MRIs. – Garth”
That still equates to 36.72 million Americans or roughly Canada’s population without health coverage. A disgraceful amount for a rich country like the USA. The rest having varying degrees of health coverage that often still involve large out of pocket expenses…
Just apologize for saying it was 57%. Faster. – Garth
From the Economist
Why house prices in global cities are falling
“Foreign demand has spillovers. If an oligarch buys a house, it drives up the prices of smaller properties nearby. A paper by Dragana Cvijanovic of the University of North Carolina and Christophe Spaenjers of hec Paris finds similar effects in Paris’s property market. Foreign buyers, mostly from China, have been a force behind booms in the big cities of Australia and Canada”.
whitaker is citing a law from 1863!
https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/169/331/
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/13/us/politics/matt-whitaker-lawsuit-illegal-appointment.html
hum
trump hotel bad year until
last minute visits from saudi ‘s came and occupied the hotel …the fourth quarter went well in fact the entire year went positive
===============================
Who’s profiting from this administration and at what cost?
The Emolument Suit Against Trump That Is Moving Ahead
Nov 14, 2018
discovery process goes ahead prove he is getting money from foreign and certain states maine and federal agencies trump hotel why stay there they want to honour the president show respect they have to do business with them.
the hotels that bought suit failed no standing
The District of Columbia Attorney General Karl Racine discusses the suit, what it might uncover and why the Founding Fathers put the Emoluments Clause in the Constitution.
https://www.wnycstudios.org/shows/trumpinc
=====
19. “I don’t — I don’t know. You know, who can really know? But I can say this, he’s got many people now that say he had no knowledge.”
Another example of Trump willing to bend over backward to give an ally — in this case Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman — the benefit of the doubt. Trump’s comments about MBS came on the same day that sources told CNN that the CIA has concluded that MBS personally ordered Khashoggi’s murder.
“Mr. Market’s funny that way. Goldilocks can end up as lunch.”
Indeed she could. Then again she could get chewed up some and mauled severely. May be enough to avoid playing monopoly in the real world for a very long time.
@#138 Arto
Re The Economist article…
” Foreign buyers, mostly from China, have been a force behind booms in the big cities of Australia and Canada”.
+++++
Nothing to see here folks…move along.
Rock/hard place?
Meet Premier Notley in AB. The unfolding crisis in AB with unprecedented cellar oil prices warranted an announcement from her this morning. I thought she might actually accede to the request of some oil companies to mandate a curtailment of production and illegally fix prices.
Nope. The usual political move. Appoint a “Blue Ribbon Committee” to study the issue.
We might be running out of time and “Running on Empty”
Thanks for the space and tolerance Garth.
WUL
#136 Changing Times on 11.19.18 at 2:20 pm
#132 IHCTD9
Changing Times – Thousands have left, especially in tech? Really? What are you using as your definition of “Toronto” and GTA for all these “young people going to smaller communities” somewhere else?
@#126 IHCTD9
“This stuff happens all over – even out here within spitting distance of the Arctic Circle…”
++++
Careful.
Trumpocalypse2018 has read “The Last Canadian” as his OTG Bible and with that little bit of “spitting distance to the Acrtic Circle) info…..he can track you down….
https://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwi2t_qjseHeAhVVLX0KHRfaChUQFjABegQIERAB&url=https%3A%2F%2Fen.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2FThe_Last_Canadian&usg=AOvVaw1CMY-1MJS1bsVKtYUKPMS4
IHCTD9
Come on IH. I already posted about this.
Zero evidence to support that claim. Complete opposite Is occurring.
MF
Only the King has authority at high levels in Saudi; not the Crown Prince, who disappeared after April 21, 2018 from the public, because all photos shown were old. Why would a group of men go to a foreign country to murder a person in their own diplomatic building? The blowback on Saudi alone would not make this possible or approved. The victim lived in Virginia, and his demise could have been easily done through a third party with no blowback. Conclusion, what you are being told is bogus, so who gained in the end?
Late to this party but I was raking my property and it started to rain…you understand, I’m sure.
Now let’s talk about how many Canadians are on wait lists for family doctors or common tests such as MRIs. – Garth
The answer to that is dirt simple…move or travel to where this impediment doesn’t exist. My local paper has been running ads from two new medical clinics taking on clients. Additionally we have similar ads from newer dental clinics. Additionally established clinics take on new clients from time to time as they add a doctor or expand location.
Our local MRI has a short non emergent wait list but its in one community or another, one hour apart, and is available on an emergent basis within hours.
This type of thing has been ongoing over the two decades I have resided here. As demand increases, new services are offered. Local motels offer medical stay rates as well, often covered by your out of province medical plan I might add.
Or you can simply sit in your condo in the midst of a bazillion others and wait…and bitch and moan.
To 2 earlier post on tax and foreigners selling….
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-the-deplorable-condo-shell-game-that-needs-to-end/
I needed a bank’s help with transferring a commuted pension amount to my LIRA. I made an appointment to meet with a bank rep to get the paperwork moving. I can renew my mortgage at the end of Dec 2018 and I have a large unused Helco amount. The rep was confident the bank would renew my mortgage and Helco with no issue which would be fine by me. I guess the US Fed will hike their prime rate by a ¼ point in Dec 2018 and the BoC grudgingly following later. That would work out okay for me as I think the US Fed prime rate increases will stall out, at most, 1% higher than today and my Helco represents investment cash to me.
I am expecting existing cyber currencies to die like beanie babies (they still have a residual value). I am thinking higher precious metal prices (PMs) in US$. There is a lot of overhang (people selling to get out). I am seeing a pattern of higher highs and lower lows for the last few months. PMs are not get rich quick but there are a few things I like about gold. It is universally recognized, remains inert buried, high unit value malleable and fungible. My concerns are yield, border transport and money changers. I prefer bullion over equity shares because “managers” like to pay themselves first before distributing the residual.
Money talks but it takes a while after ideals go into action. Land and gold are my sleep easier assets but not dominate.
I think interest rates are still too low despite the downward asset correction currently underway. IMO, cheap debt is bad but I was happy to use it. Could it be true about minimum wage consequences? Maybe a Universal Income scheme is better and you can bet I would make it a tax credit. It would make the acronym “UI” great again.
https://www.tmxmoney.com/en/news/company_releases/index.html?rkey=20181120C3600&filter=8242
My DNA won’t change and I refuse to be taken captive unless it is not just me. Katy Perry has one of my inspirational songs. This video reaches me on several levels. https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=katy+perry+part+of+me&view=detail&mid=28E68B587F394EE7EFAA28E68B587F394EE7EFAA&FORM=VIRE
I favor a new refinery over the Olympics in Alberta – carbon omissions will be managed or die trying. My instincts are telling me that stock markets are oversold but common sense says to sit on my hands.