‘It has begun’

Photo: @trailsandbears

After all of the reports, data, stats and polls, let’s finish off this dreary week with some real-life reasons why Canadian real estate – at least as we know it in the bubble regions – is a big-risk place to put money. The supply of greater fools is being exhausted. We’re hitting the wall of affordability. Even the rich are vexed.

Herewith two examples of high-income, professional people –  in Van and 416 – seriously worried about what they see around them. Should they roll the financial dice and buy into markets that are clearly irrational? Or be prudent and wait? But what happens if everyone’s gone completely bananas and continue to inflate properties? Is FOMO warranted, or does  logic dictate it’s better to sit on the curb?

Meet Alice and Bev. Both blog dogs. Trying not to be roadkill.

In April of 2016 Bev, a corporate president, and her husband moved to Vancouver on a corporate transfer. “We didn’t know it would be the worst possible timing,” she says. Here is the experience:

“We thought we could come from Ontario and buy a home after selling ours, we knew it would be smaller, but um, no. Wow, were we wrong. Worked with a great realtor, yes there are a few of those, I was once one myself, we learned quickly that we could never own a home here. The crack shack next door to the part of a house we pay $5000/month rent for sold for over $2.6 million. It’s a dumpy teardown, nothing updated since 1970. The roof had a tarp, selling owner told me the basement leaked and mold permeated.  It is now stuffed with 6 students in a 2 bathroom, with beer bong still out front from the summer and knee high grass.

The house we rent was worth $3.8 million at peak. It should go for $550K in Collingwood, ON.  Even on a President’s salary, we didn’t hold a hope. Coquitlam was $1.8 million for anything built in last decade. We did heartily try to find that unturned stone, a decent, fairly priced property. Uh uh. I recall the Customs House project starting up in Victoria harbor, converting that lovely old building to condos. We thought, well maybe Victoria is affordable. Are you kidding? Everything started at $1500/sq ft. Every project in Vancouver started at $1500-1800/ft, and they were taking price increases to $2000 + up soon. For particle board, cookie cutter, cheap Ikea type cabinetry. Identical in every development, grey. How long till they all look old? And these are small places! Nothing over 1200 sq ft, usually hovering around the 1000 mark.

Checked out the Horseshoe bay development…the West Van sales office was stuffed with Lambo-driving shiny-shoed salesman snobs, and starting at $1800/ft. To live way out there with nothing nearby? We told both of those developments, give us a call when you come back to earth. Looks they are all starting to!

Oh, and there are still a lot of empty houses in Kitsilano. One that sold last spring by us couldn’t be emptier, no redevelopment permits or orange tree wrap. I see them every night, walking the dog. Meantime, plotting our return to Trillium land ASAP so we can afford to live.

By the way, Bev just emailed me a promotional piece for a “Black Friday Sale” on townhomes in Seymour Village – a hefty commute across from downtown Vancouver.  “It has begun,” she says. “We couldn’t believe our eyes – this it the very first “discounted pricing” for a new development we have seen in YVR yet.” As this pathetic blog pointed out the other day, prices have indeed started to fall as BC is blanketed in new NDP taxes. But sales are falling, too. And ‘affordable’ is a distant mirage.

Far, far away, but sharing the same anxiety, Alice and her husband try to balance fear of debt with desire to own. Even for two lawyers, there seems no clear path forward. It takes at least a million to buy half a dodgy house in a gentrifying part of town that’s 45-minutes distant in rush hour from the downtown towers.

“Love you and figured I would write to you to see if you could give some advice about a high-income-millennial-renter situation. Our combined annual income is $230k plus bonuses (likely to increase in the next couple years). We really want to buy a house, but we live in Toronto and we’re pretty conservative people, so we’re scared to death to go for it.

We’ve been renting a concrete shoebox for five years now, saving and paying down law school student loans. We have about $150k for a downpayment/taxes/closing costs, plus we have nicely funded RRSPs in 50% fixed income-50% equity portfolios.

We’ve been looking for a house for the last 12 months. We’ve made some offers and lost, made conditional offers and backed away, and passed on more houses than I can count. We really feel like we’re “homeowner” type people, we want to get something rough and fix it up over time, and we feel extremely unsettled as renters.

I saw your post today about prices not falling in the 416, and I’m really interested in hearing what you think about our search (I was surprised to read that sentence on your blog). We know we want to buy a house at some point in the next year or two, it has to be relatively close to downtown, and we’re not willing to consider a condo. Our mortgage broker says that we can get a five year fixed rate at 3.39%, so our monthly mortgage payment would be about $4600 (leaving some of our “downpayment” cash as an emergency/repair fund). That $4600 monthly mortgage payment *should* be doable on our $12k/month take home (pre-RRSP funding) pay – but are we crazy to go for it?

I guess the shorter question is – are we better off buying now, or renting for another year and then buying? Will rising rates bring entry level homes in prime Toronto neighbourhoods down in price, or will they become even more expensive as more buyers are pushed to compete in the sub-$1M bracket? I think what we struggle with is that this is obviously an uncomfortable amount of debt to take on, but maybe that’s just the new normal – if it’s going to be the case for the foreseeable future that rowhouses in Leslieville cost $1M, we might as well do it now and like where we live. Anyways thanks again for considering writing about it.”

Bev, who is older, says no to debt and silly prices. Alice the younger is not so sure. She may end up with a needs-work slanty semi costing five grand a month to carry and requiring two hundred in structural work. So is it worth taking on $900,000 in debt and unknown liability?

Being impertinent, I wrote and asked Alice if they’re going to have kids, how many and when? Yes, she said. Two. Within a couple of years. Because young barristers don’t have pensions and seldom paid mat leave, starting a family could be a financial bomb. But they want one. They want it all. They’re human. Well, as much as lawyers can be.

No, urban housing will not be clobbered like the suburban stuff.  At least in Toronto. But it will be impacted as credit shrinks and even high-earners like Alice and Bev recoil at what’s happened. Prices will flatline. Bargains will emerge as the over-extended panic and bail. Given the extreme costs of buying and selling, understand that even in the Big Smoke, real estate could well be a losing investment.

Advice? If the monumental sacrifice and gamble is worth it, buy. But purchasing in conditions like these is emotional, not logical. Not worth it. So when the wealthy balk, the rest should walk.

 

96 comments ↓

#1 Tater on 11.16.18 at 4:57 pm

In my old hood we would regularly see young families pay 1.2 or 1.4 for a house off famiy incomes of 200k or so. My wife and I were appalled. The great part about these folks is they assume that if you rent you must be poor. Nope, family income is 3-4x yours, we just don’t think 1mio in debt, with rates set to rise at the tail end of massive run in house prices is the time to lever up. But have at it if you want.

#2 Biddy on 11.16.18 at 5:07 pm

1st…?

#3 For those about to flop... on 11.16.18 at 5:07 pm

I could probably help one of these ladies out.

Tell her I charge 50 an hour.

Jellybeans, that is…

M44BC

#4 Kiegan Scharnberg on 11.16.18 at 5:10 pm

Garth,

I read your blog religiously, and agree with pretty much everything that is said on here. However, today’s post is somewhat of a letdown. Your contributor Bev seems to be as out of touch as our Dipper government. Allowing stories like this to gain traction detracts from the credibility of this blog.

Bev, I am not sure you should be comparing house prices in Vancouver to that of Collingwood Ontario… Perhaps you should have researched house prices before moving? Realtor.ca is pretty easy to use… Especially as you used to be a realtor? I feel terribly for you that you thought some of the nicest new developments in one of the top ranked cities in the world were too expensive… Get a grip and adjust your expectations… or move back to Collingwood. Nobody feel’s sorry for you.

#5 For those about to flop... on 11.16.18 at 5:20 pm

Bev,you might want to read one of my recent blog posts.

I wrote it with people like you in mind…

M44BC

Recent sale report.

After all the doom and gloom of the previous posts I would like to submit this one for the people in Vancouver that need a little ray of sunshine to brighten their day

I ran this address yesterday and it was in transition in the system and the owner of Zealty, Adam Major was good enough to try and help and now it has come through as cleared.

A lot of people would like to buy a house in Kitsilano at a much lower price but this one set a new bar on the way down.

We’ve had a perfectly liveable detached go for 1.4 in Marpole ,a place that doesn’t get most people dreaming but this one although an oldie will surely make a few people believe that they can dream again.

The details…

2608 W 11TH AVENUE
Vancouver
Kitsilano.

Originally asking 2.04

Then 1.89

Then 1.69

Just sold 1.61

Assessment 2.48

So this perfectly liveable but in need of updating just sold for 35% less than assessed in one of Vancouver’s prime neighborhoods.

It’s still expensive granted,but only 2 years ago people were buying houses like this in non favoured parts of East Vancouver.

You are gonna need some cash but you can at least dream again.

I report negative real estate news in a positive manner most of the time, but with my Race to a million and Recent sale report posts like this, the people that it is the number one thing that they want in life then maybe a second chance is coming your way in the coming years.

I don’t know what I’m doing but whatever I’m doing feels good…

M44BC

https://pinksnow103480648.wordpress.com/2018/11/05/recent-sale-report-43/

https://www.westsiderealty.ca/ActiveListings.php/Details/1272/2608-west-11th-avenue-vancouver-bc#viewdetail

#6 Paul on 11.16.18 at 5:21 pm

Bev is paying $5000 a month rent… really?

Vancouver Sun says we dodge the housing crash. Now onwards and upwards!

https://vancouversun.com/real-estate/canadas-housing-market-shows-increasing-signs-of-soft-landing

#7 yorkville renter on 11.16.18 at 5:23 pm

$5k/mo rents an incredible place in the 416… and you keep the downpayment and avoid double land transfer tax.

mat leave maxes out at $958 every 2 weeks… dont buy until both incomes are back full time!

#8 Stan Brooks on 11.16.18 at 5:26 pm


#130 Sushma Kosaraju on 11.16.18 at 3:52 pm
Hi Garth, No one ever told us that we cannot contribute to TFSA and RESP while being non-resident. We are citizens, however living in US for 2 years on TN and have been contributing to these unknowingly. This year we are back, no jobs yet, and received a letter from CRA to payback thousands of dollars. Half of what we contributed, says that there is high penalty. All these big banks, tax guys , accounts…no one ever told us this. They are on time to grab money but couldnt tell us one point. with limited space i am not able to write more here. We were very disciplined, loyal, never broke one rule and yet being penalised for what we dint know. WOW, so much for being outside just because my son couldnt get autism services on time here and we moved to US just so he could get the support he needed. I wanted some space to rant and if it might help anyone like me.

Sorry to hear for your trouble and health problems.

For TSFA it makes sense to be linked to residency, but for the contributions to RRSP: you use room earned already, if you lived abroad/in US, you can not deduct that contribution from your US income and get tax refund with lack of residency. So to tax you half of that RRSP contribution is somehow unjust, but laws are sometimes deemed unjust. You can consult with tax lawyer to see if something can be arranged legally with CRA/if the amount is significant.

If the amount is not-so-significant just move on. There is nothing you can do in order to justify the potential effort, considering the low probability of winning. Government always wins.

As for not advising you on these potential problems from your financial institution: that does not surprise me, at all. It is just the nature of the society we live in where you are pretty much on your own.
Trust authorities and institutions at your own expense. I don’t.

To be wise to avoid fighting things you can not change or influence in this place is half a win already.

On the lack of autism services: It surprises me as there was some significant funding lately for that at least in Ontario as this/autism is starting to become an epidemy here.

Try sticking to organic food.

From Columbia university:

https://www.sciencealert.com/maternal-blood-levels-ddt-raises-risk-autism-intellectual-disability

#9 NotLegalAdvice on 11.16.18 at 5:35 pm

Alice, I suggest you consider commuting on the GO train for 45 minutes a day each way and get a place in Georgetown, Brampton, or Caledon for like 850k. You’ll get a 1900 sq ft home newly built.

You and your husband can definitely afford it with your 12k take home. Who cares if prices fall by 50k? Is that really a deciding factor to make you not buy yet?

My not so financial advice would be different if your take home was lower, like 8k…..

Your Husband’s salary will be enough to support you both and your baby (if you do have one and go on mat leave).

Don’t worry, be happyyyyyy. #TGIF

#10 Stan Brooks on 11.16.18 at 5:35 pm


#6 Paul on 11.16.18 at 5:21 pm
Bev is paying $5000 a month rent… really?

Vancouver Sun says we dodge the housing crash. Now onwards and upwards!

https://vancouversun.com/real-estate/canadas-housing-market-shows-increasing-signs-of-soft-landing

This is exactly the moment when you run for the hills.
It is starting finally.

#11 Brian Ripley on 11.16.18 at 5:40 pm

…is it worth taking on $900,000 in debt….

The short answer is sure, if your income contract is amortized over the same time frame as the mortgage.

You will however be paying over $500,000 in interest on that loan over 25 years at 4%. It might be worth looking at revenue properties rather than non income creating real estate (assuming prices will remain flat or come down).

Looking at real estate price momentum:
http://www.chpc.biz/housing-price-momentum.html

…it suggests that prices do not appear to be in any hurry to take off; note that in the $TSX Real Estate Index cash market, momentum has rolled over after a 2+ year old late stage rally. It peaked in Sept 2018 and is currently down 5.3% from the top.

Follow the money.

#12 interesting facts on 11.16.18 at 5:54 pm

some interesting facts

USA has total outstanding HELOCs of US $ 432 billion in a population of 320,000,000 (that is about Cdn $ 570 billion).

Canada has total outstanding HELOCs of Cdn $ 235 billion in a population of 36,000,000.

That means that Canadian total HELOC debt is 41 % of the American total, but we only have 11 % of their population.

On a per capita basis, Canadians owe HELOC debt at a rate that is 3.6 times that of Americans !!!

Should any major downturn occur, these interesting facts will have a big impact, particularly in a tightening credit environment.

Could get ugly.

#13 SoggyShorts on 11.16.18 at 5:58 pm

Alice and hubby making 12K/mo takehome should be maxing RRSP and TFSA. If they can save 1K more per month (50% total savings rate) then that’s 1m in 8 years, 2m in 14 years.
With 2m in cash you should be able to move somewhere reasonable and practice whatever law you really want to.

Of course, those numbers all change with kids…

#14 ShawnG in TO on 11.16.18 at 5:58 pm

“soft landing”
i laugh whenever i hear that. ok, yeah, we re special. it is different this time.

#15 interesting facts on 11.16.18 at 6:04 pm

some interesting facts

USA has total outstanding HELOCs of US $ 432 billion in a population of 320,000,000 (that is about Cdn $ 570 billion).

Canada has total outstanding HELOCs of Cdn $ 235 billion in a population of 36,000,000.

That means that Canadian total HELOC debt is 41 % of the American total, but we only have 11 % of their population.

On a per capita basis, Canadians owe HELOC debt at a rate that is 3.7 times that of Americans !!!

Should any major downturn occur, these interesting facts will have a big impact, particularly in a tightening credit environment.

Could get ugly.

#16 Leichendiener on 11.16.18 at 6:07 pm

“Well, as much as lawyers can be.” Very funny. …and the other is a fish.

#17 Daniel Bouchard on 11.16.18 at 6:08 pm

I moved back from small town QC to Victoria, BC because i hate the cold 3 months ago and there’s one thing I’m certain of.. No buying any real estate for me , ever, with these conditions. I talk to locals here and they’re still giving me the standard BC rap: “its the price to pay to live in paradise”. Personally I think they’re going to choke in the BS soon. Even lots in the middle of nowhere in the woods with zero services fetch over $100K. Mad, sad, region. Too bad it was a nice place to live 20 years ago.

#18 Howard on 11.16.18 at 6:19 pm

Bev is probably your first letter writer at whom I didn’t roll my eyes. I like her writing style too. You should appoint her your west coast correspondant as long as she still lives there.

#19 Oli on 11.16.18 at 6:19 pm

I just received notice that my landlord wants to move into the brand new unit I’ve been renting the past two years in the west end of Toronto.

I am a model tenant, but I’ve been renting at what quickly became below-market rent whilst squirreling away money into a Garth Turner Millenial Portfolio. I can see why they want me out.

As I venture out, looking for a new rental that doesn’t look like a crime scene, I’m quickly finding there’s not much available under $1700+utilities in traditional apartment buildings and flats, and $2000+utilities for a one-bed condo in the far west of the city.

Seemingly similar story across much of Etobicoke, Mississauga and Oakville (the 905). It would appear one can’t comfortably rent a one-bedroom in Burlington (!) for less than $1900 a month.

When renting requires nearly half the take home pay of someone who makes a good salary, my heart truly goes out to those who make less.

Whether it bursts or it doesn’t, the housing bubble in Toronto and the GTA is hurting Canadians. Many are taking on dangerous levels of debt and others are being slowly pushed out of their communities due to ever-rising rents.

I can’t help but feel like our country will only be worse-off for this bubble, as an generation gets swallowed-up in the amortization of their futures.

#20 Dolce Vita on 11.16.18 at 6:19 pm

2015 median Cdn. family income was $70,336. ON $74,287 and BC $69,995. The 2 protagonists in your Blog today are well above the median.

1 has balked (older) at YVR RE prices and the other undecided with talk of wavering (younger) about 416 RE prices. Imagine then what the “median” family is thinking:

Wait it out until the prices drop.

We have just seen peak prices slide (e.g., 20-30% average RE price drops out in the 416 burbs, YVR consecutive months of price drops).

Prices will be sticky they say. Historic price drops are rapid, not slow (look at historic price charts & recent price drops in 416 burbs…hardly slow or sticky).

AND, there is always someone that has to sell quickly. They will make the market.

The price drop to the long term historical average price in 416 Land is -40% & add to that what ever the Despair Phase decreases will be. Half way there, more to come.

Good Blog today. When the Top 1% despair, the end is in sight.

#21 Yankee Canuck on 11.16.18 at 6:30 pm

This is absolute madness. I have not lived in Canada for more than a decade but I just can’t believe what people are willing to pay. I live in NH about an hour from Boston. We earn more than $250USD and our home is worth less than $700USD. Two acres and a mile from the ocean. We can drive to work in Boston in an hour (not close at all but prices reflect that). Based on what people are saying about prices in YVR and TO, I see no value in this real estate at the moment.

#22 mogulrider on 11.16.18 at 6:33 pm

Boiling frogs is the theme of this coming decade.
Eventually they just roll over in the water and and die

Kinda like real estate bagholders who believed they could be millionaires with a 1 million dollar mortgage and a 100K heloc on a house worth 600K
As central banks go nuclear

Hubris kills

#23 mogulrider on 11.16.18 at 6:37 pm

BTW I moved my family to the USA last year after Trump won.

I got tired off paying taxes to feed a nation of deadbeats. I also wanted to take advantage of the economy based on tax cuts, private sector growth not Trudeau Communism ( or whatever this crap is he spews)

I also moved becuase of the Maunder Minimum and teh declining temps of the northern hemisphere..

Well some people chuckled…..

Well sports fans

NASA just announced it

https://www.foxnews.com/science/nasa-warns-long-cold-winter-could-hit-space-in-months-bringing-record-low-temperatures

#24 Lost...but not leased on 11.16.18 at 6:44 pm

GARTH..

Using a legal term,you are acting as an”accomplice” helping lawyers…WT*?

PS:Purgatory is no longer tax deductible.

#25 Rural Rick on 11.16.18 at 6:50 pm

I know of a small town law practice for sale in an affordable real estate market. If you really want your clients to live well have them contact me.

#26 Apartment on 11.16.18 at 6:57 pm

#19 Oli – How is this deal in the West End with a lakeview by the park for a one bedroom apartment? It includes water, heat, hydro, indoor parking, games room, sundeck, and swimming pool too. The GO train takes you to Union in 25 minutes, and is only $1,525 on a guaranteed renewable lease. Just one problem to ponder, because the waiting list is long.

#27 Rexx Rock on 11.16.18 at 7:13 pm

GTA,Lower Mainland and Victoria are finished for the working class.Either you go in debt each month to survive and pay the bills or you leave.Theres no ifs or buts about it.Its way to expensive.Who do we blame?Anyone with half a brain knows the answer.Good luck Milleienals if you live in these places because you are nothing but a debt slave serf.

#28 Dave on 11.16.18 at 7:22 pm

Thanks to your favourite party Garth, the corrupt and inept BC Liberals housing has become unaffordable. Now the NDP is trying to fix things. What a mess they’ve inherited.

#29 Capt. Serious on 11.16.18 at 7:41 pm

Our mortgage broker says that we can get a five year fixed rate at 3.39%, so our monthly mortgage payment would be about $4600

Wow. That’s insane. If your income allows such expenses, you really have no reason to buy at these levels. You have so much excess cash flow you can rent and invest the difference and come out way ahead a few decades from now.

#30 Long-Time Lurker on 11.16.18 at 7:43 pm

Here’s another X-File for you, Smokey.

KOIN 6 Films UFOs During Live Newscast. Portland, Oregon. January 4, 2018

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ARxr0JwTd0c&feature=youtu.be

From Dr. Dana Scully, M.D., to Smoking Man.

When to go to the ER for high blood pressure (25s)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VEnwUxslAhU

High Blood Pressure, an educational care video (4m33s)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kD5WPQ5TKrA

Lowering your high blood pressure (1m41s)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EVVjMKmW_BQ

Signs and symptoms of hypertension (1m58s)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bwn7ztGyY3M

#31 J. Canuck on 11.16.18 at 7:46 pm

#23 mogulrider
BTW I moved my family to the USA last year after Trump won.
*******************
Given your devil-take-the-hindmost-I-got-mine attitude, I’m sure you’ll fit in.

Where’s your new job? The White House?

#32 Asterix1 on 11.16.18 at 8:03 pm

Two lawyers making tons of cash asking for free advise!

No way! Should have charged them ;)

#33 Drill Baby Drill on 11.16.18 at 8:09 pm

Sunspots remember this word. NASA has an excellent video on Sunspots. The Earth is about to enter the low end of sunspot activity Q4 2018 (solar minimums). This means that there will be slightly less solar energy hitting Earth. This means according to NASA the Earth will cool. The Earth has had many solar minimums over the past millennia and they averaged 60 yrs with the last one being 70 yrs. Can you say no food, ice, snow and guns. The only value of these Mc Mansions will be their building material BTU content. So by log homes.

#34 yorkville renter on 11.16.18 at 8:31 pm

Hey #19

new rules in Ontario… dont think Landlord can just kick you out for personal use anymore. I think they have to give a great deal of notice (1 year?)

I would also see if it’s listed to rent right after you leave… would be an easy lawsuit to win ;-)

#35 People Type on 11.16.18 at 8:31 pm

We really feel like we’re “homeowner” type people

Heh heh….

So, what “type” are non-owners then?

I think it all stems from your grandparents that could not vote in Canada, unless they held property.

The ruling class, and the peasant class?

#36 Sammy on 11.16.18 at 8:35 pm

Not buying this fear mongering . Prices have not fallen off the map despite mortgage rates raising , am surprised actually . Do wish the equity markets would get into the black (non US). Got a time frame for that ? Geez

#37 Interstellar Old Yeller on 11.16.18 at 8:36 pm

Useful letters today, Garth, thanks. Our family resembles Alice’s but we are older, earn less, and already have the rugrats. Alice & squeeze, get ready for the year when toddler + preschooler costs you $3500-4000 a month in childcare. The year after is still ~$2-3k/month, depending on ages. You are poorer than you think.

We still have the desire to own a house but are going to continue to rent and wait. We’re already in an excellent school district, our rent is a bargain, and with two little kids life is easier with no home maintenance or surprise costs. Being a dirty, dirty renter has its perks.

They’re human. Well, as much as lawyers can be.

Guffaw! (Sorry, lawyers!)

#38 IamsooooSMRT on 11.16.18 at 8:37 pm

Great advice, only applies to crazy towns like gta, gva. I just bought a bungalow in good condition on a huge lot walking distance to downtown Edmonton. $265k on a 6 figure income with no other debt. All situations and markets are different. If you cant live where you live, just move. Canada is a country of many markets.

#39 yvrguy on 11.16.18 at 8:39 pm

the gig is up SHYSTERS.

https://www.remonline.com/heres-what-the-future-realtor-wont-be/

love this line:

Realtors are intended to be “trusted” middlemen. What a future Realtor’s role might be requires a separate article but, with absolute certainty, it won’t be gatekeepers of MLS data. And the commission income stream will drop precipitously.

#40 Brian Ripley on 11.16.18 at 8:39 pm

The Earth is about to enter the low end of sunspot activity Q4 2018 (solar minimums). #33 Drill Baby Drill

You may want to read this before you start drilling.
https://skepticalscience.com/grand-solar-minimum-mini-ice-age-intermediate.htm

Snippet:

The bottom line is that the sun and the amount of solar radiation reaching Earth are very stable. Even during the Maunder and Dalton grand solar minima, global cooling was relatively small – smaller than the amount of global warming caused by human greenhouse gas emissions over the past century.

A new grand solar minimum would not trigger another LIA (Little Ice Age); in fact, the maximum 0.3°C cooling would barely make a dent in the human-caused global warming over the next century, likely between 1 and 5°C, depending on how much we manage to reduce our fossil fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. While this is equivalent to about a decade’s worth of human-caused warming, it’s also important to bear in mind that any solar cooling would only be temporary, until the end of the solar minimum.

The science is quite clear that the human influence on climate change has become much bigger than the sun’s.

#41 W11th on 11.16.18 at 8:40 pm

#5 flop

Hmm… I must admit that 2608 W11th looks like a steal!
Nice home, solid build.

The last time you could buy a Kits SFH that nice for 1.6M must have been 2012 or so?

West-side living, now at East-side prices.

I agree: first the sales numbers down, now the prices down, hard. Makes you wonder if there’s more to come.

#42 For those about to flop... on 11.16.18 at 8:41 pm

Pink Pumpkins being carved in West Vancouver.

Ah man!

Not this messed up situation again.

I dealt with a case like this on Burfield where they took a 250k tap to the turtle when they sold a similar type of property and were probably lucky.

This is another one that paid over 3 million for a luxury duplex.

They don’t exist people.

That’s like saying you know an intelligent guy from Tasmania.

Total myth.

These guys paid 3.01 in April 2016, by the looks of it before construction was completed,and just reduced the price and are still trying to get out with only singed fanny packs…

M44BC

2530 Marine Drive, West Vancouver paid 3.01 April 2016 ass 3.45

Oct 1:$3,498,000
Nov 15: $3,298,000
Change: – 200000.00 -6%

https://www.zolo.ca/west-vancouver-real-estate/2530-marine-drive

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Feel free to make a small donation for cancer research.

Flop For Fox Fund…

http://www.terryfox.org/get-involved/ways-to-give/

#43 LP on 11.16.18 at 8:46 pm

Alice, lawyers are needed/required in the less expensive suburbs or country towns too. Why are you tying your futures to the big city?

#44 Stormy Daniels on 11.16.18 at 8:56 pm

Oh crap! Avenatti’s in deep doodoo. It looks like I’ll need to get a new lawyer to go after Garth and Bandit.

WUL, what do you charge for a retainer?

#45 Jim Lahey on 11.16.18 at 9:03 pm

#125 Jim Lahey on 11.16.18 at 2:33 pm
#96 Hamsterwheelie

On the contrary sir, you were brilliant for investing in Hamilton before it became the rage and prices doubled because of the Toronto crowd looking for affordable housing within the GTA. Kudos to you!

#46 TSX on 11.16.18 at 9:08 pm

Serious question . Why do people ‘invest ‘in this space ? For the tax benefit in a non-registered account? Loyalty to country ?

I truly don’t get it . Chronic underperformer .

#47 WileE Toronto on 11.16.18 at 9:10 pm

In my part of Toronto , Humewood Cedarvale, you can still buy detached houses for under a mill. and the St.Clair streetcar takes you directly to the subway line. Easy access to the ALLEN EXP, and pretty easy drive downtown.

I own a renovated 2 apartment detached house with a mutual drive , and will be selling in spring ,hopefully , not because of rising interest rates or fear of falling prices . Just want to spend more while I am healthy.

Paid 407 in 2007 , spent 200k plus over 11 years and was well rented to good people , and I would expect to get just over a million . I do not think it is a bubble price and I really worked hard for the money I made, which wasn’t a lot.

Some of the comments about Toronto declining is not going to happen.

Dolce Vita , you kept saying a 25% decline in Toronto in the 4th quarter of 2018 (now), still watching houses get over list around here.

To MF , my house for sale would be perfect for you , you can live in the 2bd or 3 bd apartments and charge outlandish rent for the other and still have an empty basement ,backyard and garage.

IF shortymac is still looking , let me know , I will keep you posted .

Take care all

#48 Ace Goodheart on 11.16.18 at 9:10 pm

Re: “It takes at least a million to buy half a dodgy house in a gentrifying part of town that’s 45-minutes distant in rush hour from the downtown towers.”

I’ve been harpin’ on this point for years, now right here, with little acknowledgement of my words.

Here we go again.

UPX is building a new train station. Where? Up here on the mount. Time to Union from this station? Around 9 minutes, with one stop intervening (Bloor UPX). $5.00 currently is the price to get downtown.

Here is one of our wonderful houses (for much less than a mil, and not half a house):

https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/20117023/3-bedroom-single-family-house-30-lambton-ave-toronto-rockcliffe-smythe

Yeah, it needs renos. But look at the lot size. Full driveway, park about four cars there, and a lot depth of 168 feet (they’re all like that up here, you can literally cut the lot in half, and build a second house – and most of them have laneways behind them).

My point?

People, in 2021 this house will be a 9 minute $5.00 per ticket commute from Union Station. 9 f*&k*ng minutes. For under 700K. I have bought properties up here for under 300K (I still have them, they are rapidly appreciating). 9 minutes lets you perhaps drink half a perrier. Or read the front page of the Globe. Nine minutes.

Why does no one get this.

If you work downtown, you should seriously be looking at the house prices up here.

I know people who have downtown condos and commute via the “Path” who spend longer than 9 minutes getting to work.

#49 Remembrancer on 11.16.18 at 9:14 pm

#32 Asterix1 on 11.16.18 at 8:03 pm
Two lawyers making tons of cash asking for free advise!

No way! Should have charged them ;)
———————————————————–
There’s a difference between the featured guest Q & A foils and the random comments looking for free services like “hey Garth I have $500k to invest, what are your 6 favourite ETFs for a balanced portfolio?

#50 Vancouver on 11.16.18 at 9:25 pm

#10 Stan Brooks
These were exactly my thoughts when I read that Vancouver Sun article – run for the hills! There is no such thing as soft landing in bubble of these proportions. Just watch it!

#51 Mikael Churymoff on 11.16.18 at 9:38 pm

has anyone ever thought this: Canadian economy is on the verge of a major catastrophe? Major as in making financial crisis look like a picnic… Doug Ford extending LCBO hours, marijuana legal, are they getting ready for the storm?

#52 AGuyInVancouver on 11.16.18 at 10:12 pm

#6 Paul on 11.16.18 at 5:21 pm
Bev is paying $5000 a month rent… really?

Vancouver Sun says we dodge the housing crash. Now onwards and upwards!

https://vancouversun.com/real-estate/canadas-housing-market-shows-increasing-signs-of-soft-landing
_ _ _
Yup, PostMedia has been flogging this story in all their papers, they must be missing the real estate ad revenue. If we barely managed a soft landing when times are good, what will happen when the economy goes south?

#53 KLNR on 11.16.18 at 10:12 pm

@#14 ShawnG in TO on 11.16.18 at 5:58 pm
“soft landing”
i laugh whenever i hear that. ok, yeah, we re special. it is different this time.
_________________________________

I laugh whenever i hear all the armageddon posts on here. 15yrs and counting. As they say, even a broken clock is right twice a day

#54 Kaganovich on 11.16.18 at 10:15 pm

Drill Baby Drill

You should let NASA know the meaning of what their scientists are doing because I don’t know if they’re on the same page lol: https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/

#55 For those about to flop... on 11.16.18 at 10:34 pm

W11th
#5 flop

Hmm… I must admit that 2608 W11th looks like a steal!
Nice home, solid build.

The last time you could buy a Kits SFH that nice for 1.6M must have been 2012 or so?

West-side living, now at East-side prices.

I agree: first the sales numbers down, now the prices down, hard. Makes you wonder if there’s more to come.

//////////////////////////////////

I will give you two more to prove that wasn’t a flash in the pan.

3375 w 12th ave,Vancouver.

Originally asking 1.88

Just sold for 1.88

Assessment 2.4

Updated

https://pinksnow103480648.wordpress.com/2018/11/13/recent-sale-report-47/

2833 w 18th ave Vancouver.

Originally asking 1.78

Just sold for 1.54

Assessment 2.0

https://pinksnow103480648.wordpress.com/2018/11/09/recent-sale-report-46/

#56 Fish on 11.16.18 at 10:42 pm

Alberta oil price collapse raises fears of economic contagion
DAVID BERMAN INVESTMENT REPORTER
PUBLISHED 4 HOURS AGO

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-alberta-oil-price-collapse-raises-fears-of-economic-contagion/

#57 Greg on 11.16.18 at 11:13 pm

Alice seems smart. Is she hot? Forget your squeeze and Toronto. Come live in my paid off $700k SW Calgary house. I’m not much older than you. I’ll stay home and you can be a sugar-momma lawyer downtown for a few years till we travel. Point is you have options

#58 viorelli on 11.16.18 at 11:57 pm

To have a good, comfortable life for a family of 4 in YVR, one must clear at least $ 10.000 – 13.000 per household monthly. If you don’t you can still get by, but a rent in a small condo, one used car, mostly eating at home, less TFSA and RESP investments or maybe none. One trip every two years max. No sports or tutors for kids, etc. Just got back from Moscow, my nephews are all playing hockey and its like $250 per season, full Olympic size ice rinks, gear included except skates, they travel to Europe at least twice a year. My younger brother is going to a ski trip in Austria this winter and then catching a train to Prague for Christmas. He has a small business there. The place seems to be more capitalist and very hectic, traffic gridlock and pollution. It is nice to get back to Vancouver, but it looks like we are becoming more socialist while out there it is like Chicago in the 30’s. I went to see a new condo tower being built there as it was on the way to my nephew’s hockey practice. Pre sales center, had to show ID, they told me that I should not be there. I only have my CAD passport by the way. And I speak the language! Nevertheless, it nice to be back home but one must pay the price to live here that much is obvious.

#59 Long-Time Lurker on 11.17.18 at 12:19 am

How ‘miniature suns’ could provide cheap, clean energy
By Emma Woollacott
Technology of Business reporter

We’re just five years away from harnessing almost unlimited power from “miniature suns”, some start-ups say: nuclear fusion reactors that could provide abundant, cheap and clean energy…

…The new kids on the block think they can do better.

“With the new HTS magnet technology, a net-energy fusion device can be much, much smaller – Sparc would be about one sixty-fourth the volume and mass of Iter,” says Martin Greenwald, deputy director of MIT’s plasma science and fusion centre.

Smaller size means lower costs, leaving the fusion field open to “smaller, more agile organisations”, says Mr Greenwald….

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46219656

#60 For those about to flop... on 11.17.18 at 12:47 am

Race to 900k.

This detached just hit the market for 948k

As with most options down the bottom of the market, you will have to compromise in some sort of way and this one comes with a skinny lot.

It was built in 1974, so it has some patina but it’s not ancient.

The details…

153 e 64th ave,Vancouver.

Asking 948k

Assessment 1.02

Guys this could be the one.

Think about it.

Skinny house means you might get away with putting your feet up on the coffee table…

M44BC

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/153-east-64th-avenue

#61 For those about to flop... on 11.17.18 at 12:54 am

Race to 900k.

This detached just hit the market for 948k

As with most options down the bottom of the market, you will have to compromise in some sort of way and this one comes with a skinny lot.

It was built in 1974, so it has some patina but it’s not ancient.

The details…

153 e 64th ave,Vancouver.

Asking 948k

Assessment 1.02

Guys this could be the one.

Think about it.

Skinny house means you might get away with putting your feet up on the coffee table…

M44BC

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/153-east-64th-avenue

#62 WUL on 11.17.18 at 1:09 am

#44 Stormy Daniels on 11.16.18 at 8:56 pm
Oh crap! Avenatti’s in deep doodoo. It looks like I’ll need to get a new lawyer to go after Garth and Bandit.

WUL, what do you charge for a retainer?
$$$$$$$

Now that you ask, in my (diminishing) capacity as an attorney, my retainer is tiny. About $1000.

I’m also a licensed Orthodontist. If that is the type of retainer you need, $16,000 to $18,000 depending on the state of your teeth. For Smoking Man, about $63,000.

Cash on the barrelhead. A free initial consult of about 5 minutes.

Call me,

WUL

#63 Smoking Man on 11.17.18 at 1:28 am

Emergency room 215 over 150.
Or Vegas.

I have a gambling problem..

#64 Lolo on 11.17.18 at 2:54 am

When we were househunting in YVR in 2010, we bid on only a few places, because most of the houses we saw were not ‘worth it’. For one house, the winning bid was $1.2M(not our bid!), over 300K above ask. I think rates must have been in the low 3%. Now that rates are trending higher (and similar houses in the neighbourhood going for $2M), I can’t fathom when a house will ever be ‘worth it’ to me? Especially now that i am contemplating freedom 55 (or perhaps even 50). Made possible by not having an mortgage to pay off.

#65 You know on 11.17.18 at 3:03 am

The fed needs to speed up the soft landing by increasing interest rates 0.5% at there next couple of meeting, this should provide them some fresh blood

#66 Hamsterwheelie on 11.17.18 at 6:00 am

If you’re earning that much…surely you wouldn’t mind lifting your collective heads, having a good look around and living somewhere else?
In my youth I lived in London England for a while, stayed at my aunt’s lovely place for free and worked earning a pittance – I could barely afford to get to work each day and lived on Guinness as a meal replacement. What that taught me (aside from the fact that a liquid only diet will cause weight loss) was how the high cost of some places could really impact your freedoms and lifestyle – much as I love London and the south of France (where I met my husband) I am fully aware of the crushing uncertainty, financial instability and long term frustration it would take to live there.
I blame lack of travel on the blinders some folks have on regarding living just in Toronto or YVR or perhaps its just that making that much income means you only wanna swim with the other big fish? Let me recommend a smaller pond, better lifestyle, more travel, less work, happier family, ‘cos you know those other fish are too busy worrying about status and mortgage payments to notice you anyway.

#67 Steven Rowlandson on 11.17.18 at 7:39 am

When home prices fall through the floor and the banks wouldn’t touch it with a 300,000 light year long pole then it is time to buy a place to live as a place to live and never as an investment….. May that day come quickly.

#68 Smoking Man's Cardiologist on 11.17.18 at 8:48 am

Folks, I understand Smoking Man was a regular and much loved contributor to this blog but he just ruptured a few arteries with his sky high blood pressure….

#69 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.17.18 at 8:48 am

@#39 yvrguy

Excellent link

https://www.remonline.com/heres-what-the-future-realtor-wont-be/

The comments after the article are revealing.
Endless Realtors poo pooing the idea that changing tech can relegate their jobs to dust…
And the article didnt even touch on the recent Court ruling’s regarding access to real estate information.

#70 Wrk.dover on 11.17.18 at 8:53 am

With five grand/month budgeted for rent, I would sleep under an over pass, and telecommute ten consecutive days every month from my favourite Jamaican all inclusive four star.

Then that way, I could also cut my monthly food and liquor budget down by 33% thus affording a full two week stay.

Bang for buck!

#71 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.17.18 at 9:11 am

@#63 Smoky
“Emergency room 215 over 150.
Or Vegas.
I have a gambling problem..”

+++
No no no.

When you’re IN the Emergency Room in Vegas and you’re looking for a Keno machine to punch in your Blood Pressure/ temp/ heart rate numbers as sure fire “winners”……

THEN you have a gambling problem…..

#72 Oli on 11.17.18 at 9:13 am

#34 yorkville renter

Residences in Ontario lived in prior to November 15th, 2018, require a minimum 60 days notice plus one month’s rent for landlord to evict tenant so they can move in. From notice, tenant is able to leave with only 10 days notice to landlord, but still a pickle.

Been in contact with an LTB lawyer who says it’s hard to fight a landlord when they say they’re moving in. Really difficult to prove they’re acting in bad faith until tenant has already moved out.

Sure, I’ll keep an eye on if it gets posted for rent or sale, but the lawyer said the most compensation I could get is the difference in rent between what I’m paying now and what I’ll pay in the next place plus moving expenses for 1 year.

Even if the landlord were to have to pay out 5k for having tossed me for their own gain, I’m still SOL.

Thanks to Douggie Ford, new landlords won’t even need underhanded tactics. They’ll simply be able to jack the rent indiscriminately… every… single… year.

#73 Oli on 11.17.18 at 9:24 am

#26 Apartment

I think you misunderstood my point.

I don’t care for view, ammenities, etc. I would be happy to give up a lot of extras for rent that is affordable.

A safe 1-bed home with some outdoor light and a parking spot for under 1700/month does not seem an unreasonable ask. Especially outside the 416.

The problem is… There is no affordable rent until you start to enter buildings that are run-down, filled with questionable entities, and dealing with vermin and bedbug infestations. As condo owners jack up their rents, without proper rent controls, purpose-built rental buildings are doing the same thing. Mr. Ford is working to ensure future housing insecurity is the name of the game for the young people entering housing going forward.

This is a problem. Not just a whiney millenial complaining they can’t have their cake and eat it, too.

#74 Stan Brooks on 11.17.18 at 9:35 am

#65 Hamsterwheelie on 11.17.18 at 6:00 am

One of the best posts today. The cost of living and the stress that comes with it is absolutely outweighing all the perceived ‘pros’ of living in the big cities here.

A fried of mine said once that he can’t take a vacation or enjoy life due to the mortgage and at that time houses in Toronto were worth sub 300 k….

============================


#51 Mikael Churymoff on 11.16.18 at 9:38 pm
has anyone ever thought this: Canadian economy is on the verge of a major catastrophe? Major as in making financial crisis look like a picnic… Doug Ford extending LCBO hours, marijuana legal, are they getting ready for the storm?
=====================
#56 Fish on 11.16.18 at 10:42 pm
Alberta oil price collapse raises fears of economic contagion
DAVID BERMAN INVESTMENT REPORTER
PUBLISHED 4 HOURS AGO

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-alberta-oil-price-collapse-raises-fears-of-economic-contagion/

So far all plays were pro-housing. To the point where we gambled everything on it. And now everything is against it.

One helluva storm brewing, and if it’s true that cost of money/interest is really not determined by the ignorants and incompetents at BoC but by the US 30 years bonds that are rising and further elevating itself from the 10 years US bond rates with mortgages in US expected to surpass 6 % very soon, (read 8 % with stress test here) we are facing Armageddon of biblical proportions.

The only thing BoC influences is deposit/short term rates.

US is in far better shape and the Fed will keep raising rates, long way to go until something brakes, as usually credit and business cycles work. That will play slowly there but extremely fast and 5 times the severity here as it is combined with the collapse of WCS prices and an absolutely clueless liberal government.

It is absolutely astonishing to see how banks ‘heads of strategy, etc’ are trying to proclaim the delusional and never ever achieved soft landing in housing as a fact here despite the fact that the crisis has not even started after 20 years of extreme bubble expansion.

They now say: 10 years growth (not 20 in which a house in Van City ‘appreciated’ from 350 k to 3 millions), no crash, the worse is over while featuring brown spots on their pants.

What we are going to see here in the next 5-10 years will an an absolutely mind blowing calamity that will make 1989 like a walk in the park/piece of cake experience.

As for the interest rates on federal bonds and the chance of those hitting double digits: do not underestimate that chance. It is not nil.

#75 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.17.18 at 9:45 am

From the “Here’s the Money Greedo File”

Times are tough.
The things one has to do to keep above water…..
Another day and other “former” Realtor goes down in flames…

https://theprovince.com/news/crime/former-b-c-realtor-sentenced-to-2-years-for-money-laundering/wcm/75debd53-d5e4-4f6e-abad-7c4ad7e0ca1e

#76 jess on 11.17.18 at 10:09 am

writing about the high end what about the lower end

“Pretty Much a Failure”: HUD Inspections Pass Dangerous Apartments Filled With Rats, Roaches and Toxic Mold
The system for inspecting federally subsidized properties is failing low-income families, seniors and people with disabilities and undermining the agency’s oversight, The Southern Illinoisan and ProPublica have found.

by Molly Parker, The Southern Illinoisan Nov. 16, 11 a.m. EST

https://www.propublica.org/article/hud-inspections-pass-dangerous-apartments-with-rats-roaches-toxic-mold

#77 Old Beaver on 11.17.18 at 10:22 am

https://edmontonjournal.com/business/energy/david-staples-krause-leads-fight-against-americans-who-have-landlocked-the-oil-sands

Anyone have the balls to speak out and save Canada?

#78 jess on 11.17.18 at 10:42 am

mr. “wonderful” giving back to canadians ?

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/kevin-o-leary-says-campaign-financing-rules-breed-mediocracy-1.4181130

#79 Freebird on 11.17.18 at 10:53 am

Mr Wohl may also be in deep trouble. Time and real investigation will tell.

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/lawandcrime.com/high-profile/if-surefire-intelligence-really-was-behind-false-avenatti-police-report-jacob-wohl-could-be-in-deep-trouble/amp/

#80 Figus Makum on 11.17.18 at 10:59 am

#58 viorelli
Your are right! Life in Putin’s Russia has all the benefits …….. if you are a male. Even the Russian Orthodox Church has your back.
Russian women continue to admire and vote for Putin. Likewise, hordes of American women revere and vote for Trump.
Грустно, очень грустно.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/11/15/in-russia-feminist-memes-buy-jail-time-but-domestic-abuse-doesnt/

#81 Trumpocalypse2018 on 11.17.18 at 11:07 am

‘It has begun’

Truer words were never spoken.

Soon most will be struggling to survive, just like the California fire evacuees.

Those few of us thinking forward will be okay.

PREPARE.

#82 karlhungus on 11.17.18 at 11:11 am

Discounted new condos were the beginning of the end for Edmonton in 2007/2008. I bought at the peak and prices are still dropping to this day. Never in a million years would I think that prices would still be falling a decade after I bought. Ugh.

#83 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.17.18 at 11:28 am

@#78 Figus Makum

In Putin’s Russia which harkens back to its Communist “Glory Day’s” with a smidgen of Oligarch corruption mixed in…..
All comrades are created equal, some more equal than others…….

#84 For those about to flop... on 11.17.18 at 11:57 am

Recent sale report.

Attached edition.

O.k so a couple of attached properties came up as sold in my Pink Folder this morning.

One cleared,one still in the system.

I will do this townhome in North Vancouver.

The details…

2133 St Georges Avenue,North Vancouver.

Paid 729k July 2016

Sold 725k November 2018

Originally asking 865k

Assessment 852k

So not the biggest hot to the hip but considering attached properties exploded since they bought then I’m sure they are surprised they couldn’t at least find a new buyer to foot the expenses which they had to eat totalling around 40k.

A downtown condo at 101 – 1318 Homer Street ,Vancouver, Yaletown , that was on the market for less than purchase price just sold and I will report that one when it comes through.

Did they hit a home run?

More likely a swing and a miss…

M44BC

https://www.zolo.ca/north-vancouver-real-estate/2133-st-georges-avenue/20

#85 Reality is stark on 11.17.18 at 12:00 pm

Alice’s husband will be a “dead man walking” if he is foolish enough to succumb to the pressure to buy. It is nothing but a path to misery and divorce.
You don’t need to try to kill yourself in order to be happy.

#86 jess on 11.17.18 at 12:21 pm

Season 36: Episode 17

In the wake of the deadly anti-Semitic attack at the Tree of Life synagogue in Pittsburgh, FRONTLINE and ProPublica present a new investigation into white supremacist groups in America – in particular, a neo-Nazi group, Atomwaffen Division, that has actively recruited inside the U.S. military. Continuing FRONTLINE and ProPublica’s reporting on violent white supremacists in the U.S. (which has helped lead to multiple arrests), this joint investigation shows the group’s terrorist objectives and how it gained strength after the 2017 Charlottesville rally. [Watch the first documentary in this series, August 2018’s Documenting Hate: Charlottesville, online.]

https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/film/documenting-hate-new-american-nazis/

The revelation about the Atomwaffen flyer comes a day after ProPublica and Frontline reported that Edward Clark, the younger brother who killed himself last month, may have been associated with the organization. Atomwaffen is thought to have scores of members around the country, and the anti-Semitic organization calls for a coming race war and encourages lone-wolf terror attacks like what happened in Pittsburgh. The group’s members or associates have been charged in five murders in the last two years.

#87 HowDeepThePain? on 11.17.18 at 12:24 pm

What a pump by the Real Estate Industry!
https://www.thestar.com/life/homes/2018/11/16/a-mississauga-womans-retirement-plan-included-buying-homes-a-lot-of-homes.html

So how is Lisa Nagy effected by the new HELOC rules?
If these new rules were in place in 2014 could she have bought all these homes?

#88 FIsh on 11.17.18 at 12:42 pm

#73 Stan Brooks on 11.17.18 at 9:35 am
#65 Hamsterwheelie on 11.17.18 at 6:00 am

One of the best posts today. The cost of living and the stress that comes with it is absolutely outweighing all the perceived ‘pros’ of living in the big cities here.

A fried of mine said once that he can’t take a vacation or enjoy life due to the mortgage and at that time houses in Toronto were worth sub 300 k….

============================

#51 Mikael Churymoff on 11.16.18 at 9:38 pm
has anyone ever thought this: Canadian economy is on the verge of a major catastrophe? Major as in making financial crisis look like a picnic… Doug Ford extending LCBO hours, marijuana legal, are they getting ready for the storm?
=====================
#56 Fish on 11.16.18 at 10:42 pm
Alberta oil price collapse raises fears of economic contagion
DAVID BERMAN INVESTMENT REPORTER
PUBLISHED 4 HOURS AGO

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-alberta-oil-price-collapse-raises-fears-of-economic-contagion/

So far all plays were pro-housing. To the point where we gambled everything on it. And now everything is against it.

One helluva storm brewing, and if it’s true that cost of money/interest is really not determined by the ignorants and incompetents at BoC but by the US 30 years bonds that are rising and further elevating itself from the 10 years US bond rates with mortgages in US expected to surpass 6 % very soon, (read 8 % with stress test here) we are facing Armageddon of biblical proportions.

The only thing BoC influences is deposit/short term rates.

US is in far better shape and the Fed will keep raising rates, long way to go until something brakes, as usually credit and business cycles work. That will play slowly there but extremely fast and 5 times the severity here as it is combined with the collapse of WCS prices and an absolutely clueless liberal government.

It is absolutely astonishing to see how banks ‘heads of strategy, etc’ are trying to proclaim the delusional and never ever achieved soft landing in housing as a fact here despite the fact that the crisis has not even started after 20 years of extreme bubble expansion.

They now say: 10 years growth (not 20 in which a house in Van City ‘appreciated’ from 350 k to 3 millions), no crash, the worse is over while featuring brown spots on their pants.

What we are going to see here in the next 5-10 years will an an absolutely mind blowing calamity that will make 1989 like a walk in the park/piece of cake experience.

As for the interest rates on federal bonds and the chance of those hitting double digits: do not underestimate that chance. It is not nil.

*******

thankyou for your insight Stan

i have noticed a fair number of houses on the market with price decline, as for myself I’m in no hurry, I haven’t
Seen anything remotely interesting or worth my time

All eyes on FM next week

Morneau unlikely to match Trump’s tax moves in economic update
Facebook
Twitter

Source says matching U.S. tax changes would cost the government $30 billion over 5 years

Karina Roman · CBC News · Posted: Nov 16, 2018 4:00 AM ET | Last Updated: November 16

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/morneau-trump-capital-tax-fall-economic-statement-1.4908012

#89 jess on 11.17.18 at 12:48 pm

could it be happening here?

The New Brothels: How Shady Landlords Play a Key Role in the Sex Trade (nytimes)

The Prostitution Empire and the Former N.Y.P.D. Detective, Always One Step Ahead of the Law

A former vice detective is at the center of one of the New York Police Department’s worst scandals in recent years. Here is his story, as uncovered by a team of Times reporters.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/21/nyregion/nypd-prostitution-ring-brothels-gambling.html?module=inline

#90 Ogopogo on 11.17.18 at 1:02 pm

Love to report on the unraveling of Kelowna. Here is a property that started at $900,000 and now after months of endless open house events, just crickets. Now at -$130,000 from original asking:

https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/20071128/3-bedroom-single-family-house-1876-marshall-street-kelowna-kelowna-south

I can’t help but chuckle heartily at the greedy being chastened.

#91 The Lawyers on 11.17.18 at 2:14 pm

They need to sit down some night and calculate their net income after ALL expenses which they have never done before. Perhaps they are young enough for a reset in life with a renewed vision of the future. The professions they have should be portable, and might have enough assets to make things work. Cast the net over Canadian Real Estate, and opportunity for a home they can afford. Buy that $1.5 million home with a mortgage of $100,000 because it costs $245,000 on a large lot fully renovated. There is even a large community college minutes away with a two year course teaching Law. Its all about starting over which could become a rewarding challenge and opportunity for moving ahead.

#92 Yuus bin Haad on 11.17.18 at 2:15 pm

Who hires these people?

#93 DON on 11.17.18 at 2:30 pm

‘It has begun’

Wake me up when it is over!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yVjjuOqMQIw

#94 DON on 11.17.18 at 2:32 pm

#27 Rexx Rock on 11.16.18 at 7:13 pm
GTA,Lower Mainland and Victoria are finished for the working class.Either you go in debt each month to survive and pay the bills or you leave.Theres no ifs or buts about it.Its way to expensive.Who do we blame?Anyone with half a brain knows the answer.Good luck Milleienals if you live in these places because you are nothing but a debt slave serf.
**********

‘The Converted?’

#95 DON on 11.17.18 at 2:48 pm

#53 KLNR on 11.16.18 at 10:12 pm
@#14 ShawnG in TO on 11.16.18 at 5:58 pm
“soft landing”
i laugh whenever i hear that. ok, yeah, we re special. it is different this time.
_________________________________

YIKES!

I cry when people misuse logic.

Mortgages last a long time in most cases 40, 35, 30, 25, 20 years. Isn’t the first decade spent paying the interest?

Given a lot of owners got caught up in the emotion and perhaps over paid on the way up.

At this point we are still waiting for the roller coaster to start its downward trajectory after a long long ride up.

Thru contagion we will all feel it.

Not happy about it or a doomer, just realistic. Denial is bliss until it is not.

Not hoping for it, more like bracing for the coming onslaught.

#96 DSA on 11.17.18 at 7:06 pm

Hi Garth – Respectfully, may you please clarify how the 416 is going to avoid a downturn with the obvious end to this most recent cycle being upon us. Unless I missed it, there’s no data that you’ve cited within blog nor anything beyond which supports this concept of immunity.

I greatly enjoy your work.

Very best.