Not quite

Love’s labour lost. Or, in this case, Val’s condo.

“Both my brother and my boyfriend are huge fans, and advised me to write in,” she writes, understanding the benefit of a meaningful suck-up. Turns out bro lives in Ottawa, is a renter, and worries about sis who’s recently moved in with the BF.

Val’s tale:

I bought a (gasp) condo in (gasp) Calgary at age 26 in 2013 with my modest marketing job and immaculate saving skills. I put $48,000 down and paid $231,000. It sure is a beauty. I’ve never regretted buying it and I really enjoyed living there for the last five years, but now I am living with my boyfriend and we plan to get married and start a family.

You can see the listing here.

I am currently flooded with offers around $1700 rent for the condo, as it hasn’t sold in 2.5 months so I listed it for rent. Two weeks before the contract with my realtor is set to expire, I get an offer: $230,000. I dropped the listing from $249,000 twice already and it is now listed at $242,000.

My boyfriend and I want to buy a home and while he is willing to pay the down payment, (although I’m sure it would be nice if I contributed funds from the condo sale) and rent the condo to keep as an investment, we are still trying to decide what to do with it. I hate to sell at a loss, but he is also willing to help me invest my funds from the condo and he consistently yields at least 6% a year from his own portfolio. Please help!!”

I wrote and asked her for numbers. Turns out the mortgage owing is still $185,000 and costs $900 a month. The monthly condo fees are $300, with property tax/insurance coming in at $120. A 6% return on her downpayment equals $240, so the true carrying cost of the condo ends up being $1,560. Not bad, and apparently a little less than if she had rented the same unit for $1,700. So her annual benefit from owning would be $1,680.

So has it been the “investment” she believes?

Meh, not exactly. The market value is apparently $230,000, and to realize it will cost $11,500 in realtor fees. After the mortgage principal is retired (assuming a zero break fee) it leaves Val with $33,500. In other words, she put down $48,000 and is recovering $33,500 five years later. Ugh. But over five years she had a net benefit of $8,400 (since the cost of owning was a little less than renting), which reduces the overall loss of $14,500 to just a little over $6,000.

The conclusion: bro is right. Renting would have been cheaper. But what to do now?

If Val rents the place out for $1,700 a month, she ends up with a small cash flow which is added to her employment income, fully taxed. She gambles that real estate values in Calgary will recover to the point where she might be able to sell without a loss –which (with $55 oil today, ouch) is far from certain. On the other hand, if she sells the place and eats the loss she still has $33,500 to add to her BF’s stash in order to buy a home and start a family (apparently you need to do both at the same time in Calgary).

However if she invests the $33,500 to earn 6% over time, and does it entirely within her TFSA (she has no savings now) the $2,000 annual growth will be tax-free.

Now for the tricky, emotional, touchy-feely part. Val loved her condo.  Yes, she didn’t have  much equity and ended up losing a piece of her net worth, so it was a lousy investment. But it was hers. Moving in with the BF changed everything. That was risk and love, co-mingled. If the relationship doesn’t work out, and the condo’s gone, she is adrift. Selling the place and dumping her proceeds into a communal house takes things to a new level of dependency and trust. But by renting the condo out, and telling herself ‘it’s an investment’ she can hang on to a piece of the old Val, in case the new one is hurt.

And you thought this blog was just about ETFs and carburetors.

Well, Val, here’s a solution. Keep the condo you fancy. Wait for that Jason Kenny guy to win Alberta back and ram a few pipelines through. Invite the BF to move into your place, cementing your position as emotional overlord. Forget the house until you see if this is the real deal. And understand there’s nothing stopping you from starting a family in a two-bedroom unit.

Now, quick, delete this before he reads it, for I have broken the Man Oath.

128 comments ↓

#1 islandgirl on 11.13.18 at 4:31 pm

I have to agree with you Garth, that’s totally the best move. Hopefully the boyfriends realizes how logically that is the best decision, plus then he can continue to save for that house he wants when the market slows down. Because renting something that nice might not be so easy to do.

#2 Guy in Calgary on 11.13.18 at 4:32 pm

I am pretty surprised a condo in Copperfield is fetching that much TBH.

#3 NotLegalAdvice on 11.13.18 at 4:50 pm

Great Advice.

Don’t sell the place and dump money into a home with someone unless it’s the real deal.

If it is, tell him to put a ring on it.

#4 islander on 11.13.18 at 4:51 pm

Yeah, Garth!

#5 Brian Ripley on 11.13.18 at 4:51 pm

Alberta Household Earnings are back to within less than 1% of their Oct 2014 peak on my earnings chart. That’s good for households who can save or invest in dividends.

But the total residential sales plot on my Calgary Housing chart is evidence for caution and probably explains why Val’s condo is not going to be valued at what her capital cost was when she bought in 2013.

Chart: http://www.chpc.biz/calgary-housing.html

Calgary total residential housing sales have been in a well defined downtrend since 2Q 2013 (the year she bought)… and the average condo price plot on the chart has been in a similar downtrend since 2Q 2014 with periodic failed price spikes as FOMO types made wild bids in a descending market.

The chart also shows the TSX Energy Index which also has been in a deep dive from the July 2008 peak.

Townhouse and SF detached properties have kept their average prices closer to their peak prices, but both of those sectors have seen lots of spikes but no price breakouts.

Trading properties in Calgary has been a sideways exercise since Val bought.

#6 SimplyPut7 on 11.13.18 at 4:53 pm

Sell
Rent
Don’t worry about the house until the kid(s) are 4 or 5.

That way you can buy a house in a school district you love, with your bigger down payment.

#7 Lord loves a Canadian Millenial! on 11.13.18 at 4:59 pm

The second last paragraph may have been the best ever written on this blog. Should be framed and put on the wall in her condo because it will give her success!

#8 Andy on 11.13.18 at 5:02 pm

is Anybody actually paying these realtor fees???
All the people I know in Lower Mainland sold with a fixed fee of $300 or so for the realtor or 1% at the most…
I know 2 realtors who took side jobs recently and one of them is ready for a career change altogether…

#9 SoggyShorts on 11.13.18 at 5:12 pm

#111 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 11.13.18 at 4:22 pm

In theory, an elected official voting on your behalf can dedicate 8h a day to understanding the issues. It’s quite unreasonable to think that the average person would be able to do that.

Here’s your test: Spend 1 hour evenly split between reading articles for and against it, and then go quiz someone. A stranger, a spouse, whoever. I’m willing to bet that even though it has been an issue for years, your knowledge after just 1 hour will outstrip theirs.
And yet I’m also willing to bet that they have a strong opinion one way or the other.

I’m not saying that the average person isn’t capable of making the best choice given all of the facts and enough time. I just don’t think that they ever have either of those.

#10 Dave on 11.13.18 at 5:13 pm

Come on, this place will be a ghost town in 20 years. Oil and gas as a percentage of revenue will continue o shrink, regardless of whether or not the God-fearing nutbar is elected premier. If he’s stupid enough to build pipelines, the impact on the housing market will be small, with a much higher risk for the environment. There is a move
by endowment funds and institutions toward divesting oil and gas stocks for multiple reasons and to get behind more sustainable ventures. Don’t buy real estate in Calgary unless you plan on living there a long time.

#11 Love Is In The Air on 11.13.18 at 5:19 pm

Val wants a safety net just in case things turn sour, and the solution is to rent it out. What would happen if the new tenants trashed the place with wild parties, and just disappeared? They may even have done a few renovations by painting the walls in black decorated with pretty flowers.

#12 OttawaMike on 11.13.18 at 5:34 pm

The apps are coming:
https://bc.ctvnews.ca/mobile/real-estate-app-forces-realtors-to-bid-for-business-1.4174335

Used house sales people are eventually going to get sideswiped like taxi companies. 5% of your equity to sell a property? Enjoy it while it lasts, “professionals”.

#13 NOTHING SURPRISES on 11.13.18 at 5:38 pm

Val, get a ring and at the same time a prenuptial agreement!

#14 Nat on 11.13.18 at 5:38 pm

Wow, really puts in perspective how messed up it is here in the GTA. Nice place.

#15 SmarterSquirrel on 11.13.18 at 5:42 pm

I have a cousin who invests in pre-construction condos who has done quite well. I was considering investing in one in Toronto that he was looking at, Artworks Tower. After doing the math and realizing it wouldn’t be cash flow positive if I rented it out (based on my assumptions), I decided against investing in it.

I compared investing in that pre-construction condo, with a multi-unit rental property and with a dividend growth stock (Bank of Nova Scotia), if you believe enough assumptions on property prices going up, the returns were pretty close to each other. (My analysis is here: https://smartersquirrel.com/real-estate-or-stocks ) But the effort involved is way less on dividend growth stocks and the ease of exiting a dividend stock position is so much easier than exiting a property investment gone wrong. I decided to stick with dividend investing.

#16 WISE ADVICE on 11.13.18 at 5:43 pm

Val, do these in tandem.
Ask for a ring and a prenuptial agreement.
Don’t even think about not doing this!!

#17 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 11.13.18 at 5:53 pm

#9 SoggyShorts on 11.13.18 at 5:12 pm
#111 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 11.13.18 at 4:22 pm

In theory, an elected official voting on your behalf can dedicate 8h a day to understanding the issues. It’s quite unreasonable to think that the average person would be able to do that.
………………………….

In theory. Yah. Sure. In REALITY elected officials vote on their own behalf, not mine. It is quite unreasonable to think that the average politician would be able to do anything other than that.

#18 Gal In Calgary on 11.13.18 at 5:55 pm

Guy in Calgary
“I am pretty surprised a condo in Copperfield is fetching that much TBH.”

I agree. We rent a 1750 square foot, 3 bedroom, finished basement, fenced yard and attached garage in Tuscany for $1800. Just renewed the lease last month.

#19 Calgary Retiree on 11.13.18 at 5:57 pm

Jason Kenny will ram a few pipelines through? Is that delusion the basis for a UCP win next year?

#20 CheckMath on 11.13.18 at 5:57 pm

Garth,

If she bought for $231K in 2013 with $48K down, her original mortgage would be $183K.

How then could her mortgage be $185K 5 years later? Did she take on a second mortgage or something?

The numbers don’t make sense here.

CHMC insurance and closing costs added to the principal. And maybe some Ikea. – Garth

#21 Dolce Vita on 11.13.18 at 5:58 pm

You present only half the story.

You forgot to ask or did not tell us WHERE the BF lives and the economics, aesthetics, emotions, etc. of that so we can compare apples to apples as to which is the better decision.

Of course, that assumes they really are intent on being a parental unit.

If not, yes, do not cede territory.

#22 Land Baron or Baron of Beef ? on 11.13.18 at 6:01 pm

People always get their “cold shower” and wake up when the winter storms arrive and no one is out looking for property anymore. When it is over – IT IS OVER!!

#23 finally on 11.13.18 at 6:01 pm

Finally some good advice on this useless blog. I agree that the BF should move in a test the waters first. But he is likely an idiot and will still do the manly thing and take on unneeded stress and buy another place.

#24 AGuyInVancouver on 11.13.18 at 6:01 pm

Ah, to live in a city where $242k gets you a 2 bed 2 bath condo. That might get you someone’s garden shed in Vancouver.

#25 WUL on 11.13.18 at 6:05 pm

Garth writes:

“…add to her BF’s stash in order to buy a home and start a family (apparently you need to do both at the same time in Calgary).”
loveandmarriageloveandmarriage…

I often reflect on my wife and I getting married 28 years ago (the only day she ever displayed bad judgment). Her father gave us $10,000 for a down payment on a bungalow in Lakeview here in the Stampede City. No thought went into either the gift or the purchase. It was cultural and it is what you did.

Garth is trying, sensibly, to alter the cultural landscape out here. Hardly a conservative stance. A wise one nonetheless.

Thanks, Turner.

WUL

#26 Cody on 11.13.18 at 6:09 pm

I’d be nervous holding a condo in Calgary, especially that far out in the Burbs, even if it is lovely.

Sell it, make 6%, and rent (from me) until the market bottoms, then buy!

#27 jess on 11.13.18 at 6:15 pm

“If PG&E is found responsible for burning down the state again, at some point we have to say enough is enough and we have to ask should this company be allowed to do business in California?” Hill told AP. “These fires take a spark, and at least in the last few years fires have been caused by negligent behavior by PG&E. We need to see how we can hold them responsible, or look at alternative way of doing business.”

PG&E knew about ‘problems with sparks’ that may have set off killer California wildfire

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/pg-e-knew-about-problems-sparks-may-have-set-killer-n935571

#28 Reximus on 11.13.18 at 6:25 pm

Net in-migration to So. Alberta is near zero, last year

Net in-migration to Toronto, (not GTA) , last year, 68k

The trend is your friend

#29 jess on 11.13.18 at 6:31 pm

“birdnesting” ?

https://www.nbcnews.com/better/health/birdnesting-gives-kids-one-stable-home-after-divorce-does-it-ncna935336

#30 crossbordershopper on 11.13.18 at 6:37 pm

Canadians talking pennies about implied returns on down payments, value of the implied value of the ownership vs rental.
all wrapped up in cheap drywall and leveraged investment, and cant write off your mortgage. what a kids game people play up here.
omg has anyone been watching how western based oil and gas companies stocks will all be coffee money values soon enough.
half of them could be gone when oil gets down to 45 wti and add 35 discount you get 10 bucks a barrel out west, might as well close up shop at that value.
thanks trudeau, how complicated can a pipeline be to build, well for him obviously hard. something about a native and moose, its a joke in there somewhere, just a sad joke for Canadians.

#31 patrick on 11.13.18 at 6:38 pm

i agree with Garth 100%, super sound advice.
Gotta have that safety net…or put a ring on it!

#32 Slim on 11.13.18 at 6:50 pm

Another thing to keep in mind about renting out your unit, is the possibility of a rental restriction bylaw being passed by majority vote of Strata owners. I’ve seen it happen. You’ll always be at the mercy of the strata council.

#33 PastThePeak on 11.13.18 at 6:54 pm

#10 Dave on 11.13.18 at 5:13 pm
Come on, this place will be a ghost town in 20 years. Oil and gas as a percentage of revenue will continue o shrink, regardless of whether or not the God-fearing nutbar is elected premier. If he’s stupid enough to build pipelines, the impact on the housing market will be small, with a much higher risk for the environment. There is a move
by endowment funds and institutions toward divesting oil and gas stocks for multiple reasons and to get behind more sustainable ventures. Don’t buy real estate in Calgary unless you plan on living there a long time
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

What colour is the sky on your world…?

#34 Young Boomer on 11.13.18 at 6:59 pm

Completely agree with Garth on this. Keep your condo, have the bf move in, and do up a rental agreement for him. It’s amazing what comes up when you put things in writing. Then spend time discussing your future and make sure you’re on the same page.

I’ve know of at least one realtor in AB advising his long term client to wait for the inevitable change in government before selling.

#35 Jesse Martin on 11.13.18 at 7:07 pm

Don’t forget that Alberta only changed its laws regarding familial discrimination January 1st of 2018, with a 15 year grandfather period for pre-existing condo bylaws that ban children. Raising a family in Alberta is often not possible in “multi-family” buildings.

I only know one family that was allowed to raise their children in a condo they bought back in the ’70s.

All of my millennial/gen-x friends were forced into houses in Calgary.

#36 Slim on 11.13.18 at 7:18 pm

Another option would be to just sell your unit at market price, then you and your boyfriend rent a apartment or a more child friendly townhouse.

Last time I looked there were lot’s of vacancies in your price range.
Later on down the road you guys can always buy something.

#37 Ryan on 11.13.18 at 7:22 pm

Literally the middle of know-where. I’d offer 199k.

#38 Alessio on 11.13.18 at 7:36 pm

Wait Garthy. Did you just compare ROI for RE based on 5 years of owning but for the balanced portfolio you used historical rate based on 60 years?? That’s not a valid comparison/argument.

#39 Val on 11.13.18 at 7:37 pm

“Val” here – I’ve been living in my boyfriends house for almost a year that he rents downtown. We will continue to live here until we make a move on buying a house.

#40 Slowly Boiling Frogs on 11.13.18 at 7:49 pm

#28 Reximus on 11.13.18 at 6:25 pm

Net in-migration to So. Alberta is near zero, last year
Net in-migration to Toronto, (not GTA) , last year, 68k
The trend is your friend
—————————————————-
Do you have a source for this number?

#41 Dan on 11.13.18 at 8:04 pm

Short of living in Mahogany, there are few places in the city with a commute that far. I was renting a 3 bedroom townhouse with a yard in Auburn Bay (close to the Deerfoot and busses) for $1400 a month. Moved because of a new job downtown and now rent 2 bedrooms overlooking DT for the same money, 10 minute bus ride to my tower and fun within 5 min walk. The old townhouse sat empty for 7 months before my over leveraged landlord lost the place to foreclosure and bankruptcy last month.

In Auburn Bay, Seton, Cranston, Academy and Silverado the blocks of cheaper/newer condos are still going up. With closer amenities and an easier and faster commute than the back side of Copperfield.

I disagree with Garth, dump it now that you’ve found a greater fool, spend less money and life on that massive drive, learn from your actions. Things aren’t going to get better if Garth is right about the HELOC trashing, they’ll only get worse by next Cowboy Halloween, this is an over leveraged/overbuilt city.

#42 barnz0rz on 11.13.18 at 8:13 pm

2 bed condos in Calgary for $230K?

Beats the hell out of FV and Vancouver right now….

#43 The Wet One on 11.13.18 at 8:16 pm

Er….

I know you know this Garth, but it’s not up to any Albertan politician to decide whether or not a pipeline gets built.

And it’s not looking good for Baby Face to get elected (whatshisnameagainIforgot).

So yeah. While we need pipelines, Kenney won’t be the one delivering. That’s just not how it works.

#44 Carpe Diem on 11.13.18 at 8:22 pm

Val,

Before having your BF move into your place, read Alberta’s family law. I don’t live in that province but what does it say about common-law relationships, marriage, matrimonial home and your assets in case of a split down the road.

Also, keep records of what your net worth is before shacking up with someone.

Love is pretty, separation can be ugly.

#45 CalgaryCarGuy on 11.13.18 at 8:29 pm

I consider myself to be an average Albertan in consideration to thoughts of where this province is headed. I also deal with a fairly large swath of people from all walks of life in my job. Let me tell you something…this province is absolutely holding it’s breath waiting for our next provincial election. We are counting on Jason Kenney to win it and we expect him to absolutely raise as much hell as possible in order to get this proud province back on track. It will be ‘no holds barred’ and it will be something to see. Myself, and many,many others can hardly wait. I can envision an historical uprising actually.

#46 IHCTD9 on 11.13.18 at 8:36 pm

#24 AGuyInVancouver on 11.13.18 at 6:01 pm

Ah, to live in a city where $242k gets you a 2 bed 2 bath condo.
———

So what’s stopping you?

#47 The Real Deal on 11.13.18 at 8:56 pm

#5 Brian Ripley on 11.13.18 at 4:51 pm

Alberta Household Earnings are back to within less than 1% of their Oct 2014 peak on my earnings chart. That’s good for households who can save or invest in dividends.
——————

I cant even believe that number. I had a rig manager working for me last year who made almost $400k in 2014. He wasn’t even making an eighth of that in 2017. His outfit had nearly 80 rigs in the field in 2014, they had three up in 2017. Nevermind the geologists bagging groceries and the engineers delivering pizza. Don’t even get me started on construction, which is just a big, ugly race to the bottom with the last two cockroaches left. Those stats are either flat out fake, or minimum wage was that big an influence on total per capita income.

Piles of self employed in Alberta not paying themselves dividends now that the cupboards are bare. Its ugly out here, and $13 western Canadian select is going to be a kick in the teeth when that finally feeds through over winter.

#48 cat on 11.13.18 at 8:56 pm

Looked at the condo listing – the relationship is doomed if you keep everything painted white. Guys don’t like that.

#49 -=jwk=- on 11.13.18 at 9:05 pm

2323 how is Kenney going to make the price of oil go up?

On topic; what this really shows is how little you ‘earn’ in your first 5 years of mortgage. if you can’t afford to double up or do the 10% thing in the first 5 years you overbought. Your should be paying 5% principal each year to get ahead of the curve.

Sell it only when you are married. Not when you get a ring, when you are legally married.

#50 Then there's these on 11.13.18 at 9:06 pm

#81 KLNR on 11.13.18 at 10:27 am
some folks on here may find this link interesting

https://www.fastcompany.com/90266261/the-out-of-control-price-of-american-homes-in-a-single-map?utm_source=postup&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Co.Design%20Daily&position=1&partner=newsletter&campaign_date=11132018
_____________________

And yet others may find these interesting

https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/economics/home-affordability-canada-vs-us-A6q9GVzCdEy_LU5_uiMUsA/

https://www.point2homes.com/news/canada-real-estate/canada-usa-housing-market-worse.html

#51 Dudlow on 11.13.18 at 9:15 pm

“Now, quick, delete this before he reads it, for I have broken the Man Oath.” Garth, I’ve been a reader for only about a year, but I’ve got to say that, quite apart from your excellent advice, you have an inspirational familiar prose style that would do William Hazlitt proud! Rock on, sir!

#52 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 11.13.18 at 9:17 pm

Canadian oil prices briefly plunged as low as $15 per barrel last week, after a U.S. federal judge blocked the construction of the Keystone XL pipeline.
Canada’s oil industry has lurched from pipeline crisis to pipeline crisis, with projects blocked at every turn. Just a few months ago, the Trans Mountain expansion – a proposed pipeline to be built from Alberta to the Pacific Coast – also ran into trouble and is now ultimately in doubt.
The inability to build new capacity capable of shipping higher levels of oil out of Alberta has crushed Western Canada Select (WCS), a price marker that tracks heavy oil from Canada. WCS has historically traded at a discount relative to WTI, taking into account differences in quality and the higher cost of transit, but the discount has exploded this year as Alberta’s pipelines are tapped out. In October, WCS traded at a record $50-per-barrel discount to WTI.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Oil-Prices-Plunge-Below-15-In-Canada.html

#53 Moses71 on 11.13.18 at 9:21 pm

Calgary has plummeted already yet building industry otherwise. Good for her to have Garthy’s advice looking out for the ladies.
A ring gives her a 50/50 shot but listen to Garth because he is also a man and has perused her letters loud and clear.
But the renting rate in Calgary, esp. Copperfield may not be stable. Ensure she has “coverage” for the down times.
You worked hard & stuck your neck out, lady. Be careful. A pre-nup sometimes is only worth the paper it’s written here..

#54 Corey on 11.13.18 at 9:26 pm

….
“Man Oath”???

It is the “Bro Code” Garth!!
Geezzzzzz

How old are you mate??

;)

#55 Ronaldo on 11.13.18 at 9:27 pm

Totally agree with you Garth. Great advice.

#56 Axehead on 11.13.18 at 9:28 pm

Have never seen real estate this bad in Alberta (‘cept when T2 caused a major meltsown in 80’s). Like a perfect storm, politically, economically, with the only hope changing the socialist dweebs in charge and getting back to buainess.

#57 Gregor Samsa on 11.13.18 at 9:30 pm

The situation is much, much worse than Garth or Val paint it. Val got completely hosed. Suckered. Bamboozled.

I find it very hard to believe that people are dumb enough to want to rent that place for $1700 a month. $1700 a month will get you a 2 bed, 1000 sqf luxury condo right in downtown Calgary. Why on earth would someone want to rent one at that price out on the edge of the city? Look at map, that place is practically a farm. And that building doesn’t even look concrete, rather a wooden ratbox where you can hear every minute of your neighbor’s life.

Great rental units are available in Calgary right now for around $1000 right in downtown. Out in the sticks like that, anyone paying over $1000 needs to have their head checked.

So in reality, Val could have been paying $1000 rent all these years with no other expenses, pocketed and invested the rest, and would have a 6 figure deposit to roll into a house instead a handful of dust. Like I said, hosed.

The sooner she gets rid of the condo, the better.

#58 Ronaldo on 11.13.18 at 9:33 pm

#24 AGuyInVancouver on 11.13.18 at 6:01 pm
Ah, to live in a city where $242k gets you a 2 bed 2 bath condo. That might get you someone’s garden shed in Vancouver.
————————————————————-
That may be the case now for Vancouver but wait another year and see what happens. Vancouver real estate is cooked.

#59 palebird on 11.13.18 at 9:44 pm

Alberta is hooped as is BC for the foreseeable future. Sask and Manitoba are going to rally in the next few years due to agriculture. Prices are going to take off for agricultural commodities. Rest of the country stagnation. Call them as I see them.

#60 Ronaldo on 11.13.18 at 9:45 pm

#36 Slim on 11.13.18 at 7:18 pm
Another option would be to just sell your unit at market price, then you and your boyfriend rent a apartment or a more child friendly townhouse.

Last time I looked there were lot’s of vacancies in your price range.
Later on down the road you guys can always buy something.
———————————————————–
The problem with humans is that once they have the cash in hand they find other things to spend it on like cars or holidays.

#61 Yuus bin Haad on 11.13.18 at 9:47 pm

I really love the fable editions of this blog.

#62 dakkie on 11.13.18 at 9:47 pm

Real Canadian Mortgage Growth Points to Early-80s-Style Meltdown

http://www.investmentwatchblog.com/real-canadian-mortgage-growth-points-to-early-80s-style-meltdown/

#63 IHCTD9 on 11.13.18 at 9:48 pm

#28 Reximus on 11.13.18 at 6:25 pm

Net in-migration to Toronto, (not GTA) , last year, 68k

The trend is your friend
———

Just a heads up, the population growth trend in Toronto is down, not up.

In 1955, Toronto’s population growth was 5.02%.
In 1990 it was 2.56%
This year we’re looking at 1.21%
Expectations for 2030 are less than 1%

On top of that, intraprovincial migration shows Toronto hemorrhaging residents at unprecedented levels.

Especially youth.

The latest period tracking 20-34 year olds leaving Toronto shows a massive 306% increase over the previous period. Even 35-49 year olds are bailing out with a 49% increase over the same period.

Toronto will eventually be filled primarily with old folks and newcomers based on the current numbers. Sounds great.

And now, for this evening’s monolouge:

I’ve said it before, the gta will become a landing pad for folks looking to get started, but a giant chunk of them will leave for greener pastures once they gain traction (and those pastures include other countries). Only the rich, and those unable to get a leg up will stay.

There is no dominant culture in the gta, no one really feels at home. The ethnic enclaves in the gta while pure gold to many new arrivals, are not nearly as important to first gens as they were to their parents. The fact that few first gens will be able to afford to put down roots where they grew up will only accelerate the sentiment.

IMHO, the very process of Westernization will drive folks out of the gta. First gens are native English speakers, they’re influenced by Western Culture starting at day 1, have no history of living in a deadbeat old country to remember hard times by and be happy just to live here, and they’re faced with every problem any Canadian kid is.

First gens can live 4 families packed into a suburban house like their parents did, in an area where no one speaks their language, or move. It’s a no brainer.

I fully expect the exodus to accelerate into the future.

#64 animal lover on 11.13.18 at 9:48 pm

Such thoughtful advice Mr. Turner, as always. Put a ring on it before even considering a real estate purchase together. You need the ties that bind for a long term investment. Same advice for getting a pet, IMHO.

#65 Long-Time Lurker on 11.13.18 at 9:53 pm

I feel like I’m reading an Ann Landers column.

#92 Francois Labelle on 11.13.18 at 1:05 pm
How come the price of the ETF HEJ is so low? It pays 7.65% in dividend and sells at 11.1 times the profits. The dividend payment has been stable for a few years and yet the price remains very low. Do you have an idea of the fundamental reasons that explain this price?

>Ask Ryan Lewenza on a Saturday. A quick guess is: EM economies cratering due to a strengthening USD.

#76 TurnerNation on 11.13.18 at 8:40 am

They landed onto beaches and faced the same. Our elite could have ordered airplane bombers onto those same dug in positions (1), or floated tanks across on barges to blast them (2). Instead they sent flesh and small arms.

The trend is clear: Getting people off their land and self sufficiency. No more farm boys. (3)

>I’ll add something to this (from memory):

(1) I watched a documentary on the D-Day landing. The Allies sent bombers to bomb the coastal positions but they arrived late so the landing force didn’t have the Axis defences weakened. Vagaries of war.

(2) I saw a documentary on the failed Dieppe raid and in that raid they tried using tanks but the tanks just got stuck in the sand. Sitting ducks.

(3) I read a book about the Lakota Chief and Medicine Man, Frank Fools Crow (If memory serves correctly). He said that President Roosevelt once came to him to pray together to end WWII because if it didn’t end soon everyone was going to starve to death.

#66 Val on 11.13.18 at 9:59 pm

The situation is much, much worse than Garth or Val paint it. Val got completely hosed. Suckered. Bamboozled.

I find it very hard to believe that people are dumb enough to want to rent that place for $1700 a month. $1700 a month will get you a 2 bed, 1000 sqf luxury condo right in downtown Calgary. Why on earth would someone want to rent one at that price out on the edge of the city? Look at map, that place is practically a farm. And that building doesn’t even look concrete, rather a wooden ratbox where you can hear every minute of your neighbor’s life.

Great rental units are available in Calgary right now for around $1000 right in downtown. Out in the sticks like that, anyone paying over $1000 needs to have their head checked.

So in reality, Val could have been paying $1000 rent all these years with no other expenses, pocketed and invested the rest, and would have a 6 figure deposit to roll into a house instead a handful of dust. Like I said, hosed.

The sooner she gets rid of the condo, the better.

Response from Val:
——
First of all I had an offer for 235k and an offer for 1700 rent sitting on the table at the same time, that’s why I wrote in.
Second of all my mortgage was $900 for the last five years and I had a roommate paying $700 the whole time.
Third of all I only owe 165k on my mortgage, I originally wrote 185k when I thought he was asking my original mortgage, not my mortgage after five years.
And one more point—my boyfriend rents a house downtown, cheap obviously, and that’s where we are living together. He pays the bills while I figure out what I’m going to do with my condo.
Downtown is a ghost town, a nurse would see the benefit in living in my condo 5 minutes from the new hospital. The rental market in that area is really good. Not sure how any of this adds up to me getting hosed, I just wanted to ask an expert on the most logical thing to do.

#67 IHCTD9 on 11.13.18 at 10:14 pm

#45 CalgaryCarGuy on 11.13.18 at 8:29 pm
I consider myself to be an average Albertan in consideration to thoughts of where this province is headed. I also deal with a fairly large swath of people from all walks of life in my job. Let me tell you something…this province is absolutely holding it’s breath waiting for our next provincial election. We are counting on Jason Kenney to win it and we expect him to absolutely raise as much hell as possible in order to get this proud province back on track. It will be ‘no holds barred’ and it will be something to see. Myself, and many,many others can hardly wait. I can envision an historical uprising actually
———

Well if it’s anything like the pile driving Wynnie took here in Ontario, it’ll be a rout to remember.

#68 Bob Loblaw on 11.13.18 at 10:24 pm

#18 Gal in Calgary

You are correct. That is high for Copperfield. We’re renting a 3,500 sq ft house on a large corner pie lot in Evergreen (Calgary) for $2,150 a month. 6 bedrooms, double car garage, finished basement, 2 fireplaces, built in 2004. The owners moved out of the country and couldn’t sell it. It’s a fools game buying any real estate in this city for at least a few more years.

#69 Tony on 11.13.18 at 10:28 pm

That condo at best will pull $150,000. Commission in Alberta is 7 percent, $180,000 is owing, if it even rents its a miracle in Calgary. Anyone crunching numbers would have walked away long ago from this one. Edmonton is much worse with resale townhouses and resale apartments today selling at half or less than half of what they sold for way back in the spring of 2007. In both Calgary and Edmonton no one drops their selling price and no one buys anything. Prices continue to fall.

#70 joblo on 11.13.18 at 10:32 pm

Dump it, looks like it backs onto a highway. Ugh!
and just wait fir that “Special Assessmint” coming down the pipe.

Oh wait, maybe not your gonna get the Oilympics in 2026, yeah baby!

#71 Tom from Missisauga on 11.13.18 at 10:32 pm

Buy the house while on your 2nd maternity leave. In a 800 s/f it can be done.

#72 Tony on 11.13.18 at 10:33 pm

Read the mls listings in Calgary. There’s no way on Earth that same condo would sell for more than $150,000 today. The owner must have his head in the clouds or be in dreamland.

#73 Tony on 11.13.18 at 10:40 pm

Re: #66 Val on 11.13.18 at 9:59 pm

Take another look at that offer on the table. You’re looking at a $135,000 offer not $235,000. On a very good day that condo might pull $150,000 maximum. No one who buys it will live in it so like the other guy said the most that place would rent for would be about $1,000 a month. Even $150,000 is a stretch only pulling in $1,000 a month if and it’s a big if, if it rents.

#74 Moses71 on 11.13.18 at 10:41 pm

#66 Val comeback
There are condos being built all around the not so new hospital in Seton and ready to go in a year or so when Kenney fixes the oil pipeline issue (fingers crossed)
This is shortlived, so instead of being defensive, take your lumps as you did just write it to an open blog.
Save the angry eyes and laugh it off. Jeesh
From someone in the know here

#75 Fish on 11.13.18 at 10:58 pm

When the developer next door comes calling
Recent New York City case raises questions about construction access
Thursday, January 4, 2018
By John De Vellis

https://www.reminetwork.com/articles/what-to-do-developer-next-door/

#76 Steve French on 11.13.18 at 11:04 pm

Including dividends, my balanced and diversified ETF portfolio is now down -0.55% since June.

Garth: should i sell everything and buy real estate?

#77 Tony on 11.13.18 at 11:07 pm

Re: #10 Dave on 11.13.18 at 5:13 pm

The province refuses to promote Alberta as a retirement community for the poor where the cost of living is virtually free.

#78 Gregor Samsa on 11.13.18 at 11:12 pm

#66, Val: You found two greater fools, congrats. $1700 in your hood can rent a giant 3 bedroom house, or as I said, a luxury condo downtown. Don’t count on an infinite supply of fools.

Your other fool, offering $235,000 (a net loss for you considering carrying costs and fees), is the one you should go with. Hard to see you doing better when similar places sell for the same price in actual desirable parts of the city and new condos coming online every day. So you might be coming out of it with around $50K instead of a “handful of dust,” only because you had to throw away the best years of your life (a) enduring a roommate and (b) living a bottled up life out in the sticks. A high price to pay indeed when you could have had $200K in the bank and a better life with other choices. I still call that ‘hosed.’

#79 yvr_lurker on 11.13.18 at 11:13 pm

Val:
I would do as Garth suggests. Keep your place for the time being, and rent it out for 1700 to cover expenses. The stock market this year and probably next is on a roller coaster. No way you would have gotten anywhere near 6% this year (this is complete fallacy), and I think next year will be another sideways year in the market with all the uncertainty. Live with your partner, keep your place for now, see how things go, and then re-evaluate in a year from now. I doubt that your place in Calgary will decrease much more, and most likely it will be up a bit by Christmas 2019. By then, you will also know where you are with your partner.

#80 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.13.18 at 11:26 pm

Condo Sales in overbuild Langley are a mess.
Developers are offering incentives of 1year no mortgage payments.
Presales are toast due to NDP legislation demanding capital gains disclosure.
Thank you, Mr. Horgan.
Let’s make BC fair again.

#81 DON on 11.13.18 at 11:32 pm

#45 CalgaryCarGuy on 11.13.18 at 8:29 pm

I consider myself to be an average Albertan in consideration to thoughts of where this province is headed. I also deal with a fairly large swath of people from all walks of life in my job. Let me tell you something…this province is absolutely holding it’s breath waiting for our next provincial election. We are counting on Jason Kenney to win it and we expect him to absolutely raise as much hell as possible in order to get this proud province back on track. It will be ‘no holds barred’ and it will be something to see. Myself, and many,many others can hardly wait. I can envision an historical uprising actually.
**************

You mean Jason Kenny and the Soldiers of Odin right!!!

Can’t you ask him to step down and replace him with someone with an actual resume.

Bit – u – men needs a market. The oil boom is not the result of any political party just like the bust wasn’t.

No disrespect intended.

#82 TS on 11.13.18 at 11:33 pm

If she got an offer for $1700 to rent it, she should have taken it in a heartbeat because as others have pointed out, that probably 30% to 40% higher than the going rate. I rent a fully renovated 1500 ft2, 3 bed, 3 bath townhouse in Inglewood (2014 best neighborhood in Canada..whatever that means) for less than that.

#83 Calgary Real Estate Guy on 11.13.18 at 11:44 pm

Sell the Condo.

You and your boyfriend should find a cheaper rental. A basement suite for $1000 /mo all in.
Save your money. Subscribe to the philosophy of Minimalism.

#84 DON on 11.13.18 at 11:47 pm

#71 Tom from Missisauga on 11.13.18 at 10:32 pm

Buy the house while on your 2nd maternity leave. In a 800 s/f it can be done.
**********

Val, I’m with Tony on this one.

Babies don’t need yards and a baby remains in that state for almost 2 years. If you have a second, well it may be just one more but it is exponential in terms of energy, time, and perseverance. That’s when you get the yard, and make it a heated dome so you can send them outside in the winter (husband included – lol).

No one really knows what is it like to have kids until you go through it. And by then the contract is signed your life as you know will truly be diversified. But the hugs are rewarding. And remember when you are looking at mini you – your parents were right… payback is served.

Sell and wait! Don’t rush to loose your free time. Keep the rental house until it make sense to move and come out financial ahead in the end.

#85 TS on 11.13.18 at 11:56 pm

Oh and Val, Garth’s advise is solid. Your mortgage is $900 a month and even though Alberta isn’t kicking ass these days, it still has by far the highest median earnings and the lowest taxes in the country. If you and your squeeze have jobs, and only pay $900 a month to put a roof over your heads, you are way ahead of the crowd even if your condo math isn’t very good.

#86 DON on 11.13.18 at 11:58 pm

#54 Corey on 11.13.18 at 9:26 pm

….
“Man Oath”???

It is the “Bro Code” Garth!!
Geezzzzzz

How old are you mate??

;)
*************************

It’s certainly not called the ‘Hipster Code’

#87 DON on 11.14.18 at 12:04 am

#48 cat on 11.13.18 at 8:56 pm

Looked at the condo listing – the relationship is doomed if you keep everything painted white. Guys don’t like that.
**************

Guys and dogs don’t care as long as there is something nice to look at. Yup a big screen TV for gaming.

#88 Fred Murtz on 11.14.18 at 12:05 am

Wait for Kenney to ram a few pipelines through? Do we dare dream? Trudeaus American backers want zero pipe and it looks like Trudeau is nestled into the lint lining their deep pockets. Kenney will have to separate from Canada and shoot his way through the suck up line of American protestors massed along the BC border. We need Trudeau out more than we need Kenney in. Trudeau isn’t Canada, Canada is Rockefeller, George Soros, DNC, Farrallon Capital and the thousands of people who accept who hate Canada. Trudeau is an actor, pretending to be a politician .

#89 Smoking Man on 11.14.18 at 12:29 am

DELETED

#90 SoggyShorts on 11.14.18 at 12:35 am

Val, whatever you do, do it FAST!
I’m too lazy to check what your place should sell for, but 5 minutes on padmapper shows that your tiny 800 sq ft condo sure as hell shouldn’t rent for more than $1,400 per month.

Right around the corner, $1395/mo
50 sqft bigger

https://www.padmapper.com/apartments/32836868/2-bedroom-2-bath-apartment-at-99-copperstone-park-se-calgary-ab-t2z-0p2#warm

a few blocks away $1600/mo
1200 sq ft — 50% bigger than your condo!

https://www.padmapper.com/apartments/33609401/2-bedroom-2-bath-apartment-at-159-new-brighton-walk-se-calgary-ab-t2z-4y2#warm

2 KM away 1550/mo
1400 sq ft Almost double the space!
https://www.padmapper.com/apartments/33581727/3-bedroom-2-bath-apartment-at-120-marquis-lane-se-calgary-ab#warm

#91 Rargary on 11.14.18 at 12:56 am

VAL…the most logical thing to do is get married 1st! That’s what Gartho was saying. What’s the rush? And how is your wedding getting paid for? Your bf’s down pymt savings or the proceeds of your sale or rental income? He’s your bf, not fiance so he still has to buy a ring… have we talked dollars yet for your honeymoon? You’ve already decided to sell (offer on the table?) Lol… let’s do the math… it might be your 1st rodeo, but it’s not ours.

#92 Kilt on 11.14.18 at 1:29 am

Val – best to ask Garth’s advice and then read it. Don’t bother with the comment section.

Kilt

#93 Delirious Deloris on 11.14.18 at 3:30 am

https://www.moneysense.ca/save/investing/an-investors-guide-to-robo-advisors-2018/?utm_sourcealt=nl&utm_mediumalt=em&utm_campaignalt=pfm_invest&utm_contentalt=214917&utm_termalt=0&sfi=6852a9e94eeba16cb65777259f846fcb

Garth, I’m putting up my CV for your first robot advisor position. I’ll say “set it and forget it” non stop until people are sick of it. Anyway, I’m available to work remote, as a robo, financial insights are for a librarian.

#94 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.14.18 at 8:10 am

When the next provicial election in Alberta?
Pretty much a foregone conclusion Notley gets punted.
The oil taps will start flowing again.
Property values begin their rise from the hideous market that they are currently suffering through….
Might not be a bad idea to it rent for a while.

#95 baloney Sandwitch on 11.14.18 at 8:13 am

Good luck, Val. Hurry up and pop out those rugrats. We need a lot of those future taxpayers to pay for our boomer retirements. He plan to live almost forever.

#96 Trumpocalypse2018 on 11.14.18 at 8:20 am

Trump is hunkered down, with his finger on the button.

Melania messing up national security. Big shake-up in the White House on the way.

North Korea has been outed – they duped Donald over missiles, and he will soon unleash his fury over this plus how he has been denigrated over the midterm results and his Veterans Day actions. He knows his tax returns and impeachment are now dead ahead.

He is furious, closeted and ready to explode.

Guess what happens next.

PREPARE

#97 Calling all Idiots on 11.14.18 at 8:33 am

https://www.660citynews.com/2018/11/13/bbb-uncovers-advance-fee-loan-scam-in-calgary/

Desperate Calgarians plagued by lending scams. These kind of scams crop up when people are still their most desperate. These are mean and petty thieves who know that desperate Mom’s have hungry kids at home, and father’s with no unemployment’s cheques working day labour. This is the Trudeau/Notley economic miracle.

#98 TurnerNation on 11.14.18 at 8:44 am

Circling back to the Nov 11 topic another clear goal of war was destruction of family. Kill off all the fathers.
And in WW2 women got a taste of the future, they were put to work in war factories. Now they must work and still families struggle.

And the baby boomers? By that time everyone was herded into cities were they could be controlled using TV and media. Sold the middle class debt lifestyle – with dependence upon the State and Bankers.
Leading us to today’s debt bubble and drug-addled infertile generation.

#99 YourSmarterThanThat on 11.14.18 at 8:46 am

Garth, how exactly would Jason Kenney winning the election lead to jamming pipelines through? Notleys NDPs have been 100 percent pro pipeline. Partisan much? The roadblocks are not currently at the provincial level. Did you mean when Kenney switches to Fedrral politics and unseats the drama teacher as PM….or maybe somehow gets himself appointed to the Supreme Court?

#100 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.14.18 at 9:29 am

@#96 Trumpocalypse2018

aaaaannnd as another year draws to a close we must suffer through the dire predictions of soon to be Trumpocalypse2019…..
What will you call yourself after the 2020 elections ….Clintonapocalypse2021?

#101 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.14.18 at 9:39 am

@#99 I should be smarter than that……

“Notleys NDPs have been 100 percent pro pipeline. Partisan much? ”
++++

While the use of the word “much” was totally unnecessary, I understand the Dipper predeliction to revert to slang to gain a bit of “cred” with the other bobblehead dolls agreeing with you.

Perhaps Trumpocalypse2018 was correct but he was referring to todays annihilation of the English language?

Dare I suggest…?
“You’re smarter than that” as opposed to the grammatically incorrect “Your smarter than that” …..

#102 joblo on 11.14.18 at 9:56 am

https://qz.com/1461958/justin-trudeau-has-a-meeting-escape-button-according-to-alex-trebek/

Buzzerpeople unite!

#103 Alistair McLaughlin on 11.14.18 at 9:57 am

It is often said, nearly always correctly, that the cheapest car to drive is the one you’re driving right now, whatever that happens to be (extreme cases excepted). In Val’s case, the cheapest home to live in is the home she’s living in right now.

#104 David on 11.14.18 at 10:03 am

I see a lot of properties in Halifax with static prices over the last 7-9 years (suburbs in the 300-400k range).

e.g. SFH in Clayton park
Aug 2010 sold for 370k
July 2018 Price change 410k -> 399k
Sept 2018 Price change 399k -> 387k

They’re trying to “break even” after 7 years.

Still the realtors tell me prices have increased 2-3% every year. These growth statistics must be fed by flip-renovations or rebuilds pushing up average prices.

A price peak was reached here in 2009-2011, coincident with announcement of the shipbuilding contract.

For years I’ve heard coworkers deciding to become landlords with properties they can’t unload at a profit.

No immunity here.

#105 IamsooooSMRT on 11.14.18 at 10:23 am

#101 lol as we kidz say….

Itz “farts” in englizh

#106 Ronaldo on 11.14.18 at 10:25 am

#98 TurnerNation on 11.14.18 at 8:44 am
Circling back to the Nov 11 topic another clear goal of war was destruction of family. Kill off all the fathers.
And in WW2 women got a taste of the future, they were put to work in war factories. Now they must work and still families struggle.

And the baby boomers? By that time everyone was herded into cities were they could be controlled using TV and media. Sold the middle class debt lifestyle – with dependence upon the State and Bankers.
Leading us to today’s debt bubble and drug-addled infertile generation.
———————————————————-
Oh, to be back on the farm when life was so simple.

#107 Brian Ripley on 11.14.18 at 10:28 am

Those stats are either flat out fake, or minimum wage was that big an influence on total per capita income. #47 The Real Deal

Statistics Canada Data: Employment & Average Earnings including Overtime seasonally adjusted, for all employees (2 months lag) for British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec, Newfoundland, New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island and Nova Scotia. (Aug data, 2 months lagging)

http://www.chpc.biz/earnings-employment.html

​Total Median Family Household
Income from 2016 StatsCan Census​

Calgary = $107,620/yr
​Vancouver = $88,000/yr
​Toronto = $88,170/yr
Montreal = $86,160/yr

From my calculations:

IN THE LAST 10 YEARS AVERAGE
SFD Prices are up:​
119% in Vancouver
21% in Calgary
132% in Toronto

WHILE Employment Earnings are up:
26% in British Columbia
29% in Alberta
24% in Ontario​​

It’s going to either take a long time for household earnings to catch up or a much shorter time for housing costs to correct back down. The wider the divergence between earnings and shelter cost the more fragile the balance becomes. As more and more income gets diverted into shelter costs, less income is going to discretionary spending. Less spending, fewer sales, slower wage growth.

The bigger problems are going to be household debt and Canada being a much bigger consumer of global goods rather than a producer of goods; “For every $1 of investment coming in to Canada, $1.36 leaves (full year 2017 data)” see the FDI FDO plot:

http://www.chpc.biz/household-debt.html

#108 For those about to flop... on 11.14.18 at 10:58 am

The Horn Section of the commentators were a disgrace on Remembrance Day.

I thought they would have at least behaved themselves during The Last Post…

M44BC

“Visualizing Financial Literacy Rates Around the World.

What is financial literacy? The S&P’s Global Financial Literacy Survey defines it as the ability to understand essential financial concepts in making informed decisions about saving, investing and borrowing. The survey asked respondents a series of financial literacy questions. Here’s one example. Suppose you have some money. Is it safer to put your money into one business or investment, or to put your money into multiple businesses or investments? The answer is obvious to anyone familiar with risk diversification.

Top 10 Most Financially Literate Countries (%)
1. Denmark: 71%

2. Norway: 71%

3. Sweden: 71%

4. Canada: 68%

5. Israel: 68%

6. United Kingdom: 67%

7. Germany: 66%

8. Netherlands: 66%

9. Australia: 64%

10. Finland 63%

https://howmuch.net/articles/financial-literacy-around-the-world

#109 For those about to flop... on 11.14.18 at 11:09 am

This article was referred to in the first one..

Both articles have been edited as although their normal articles are short and concise, these global ones are a bit longer as they break down each continent.

Click on the links for full range of maps…

M44BC

“Visualizing the Huge Disparities Between People’s Wealth Around the World.

Comparing wealth inequality numbers across several countries can be very tricky. Countries have different methodologies for calculating wealth. The cost of living varies dramatically within and between countries, plus there are all sorts of gaps in any dataset that incorporates information from Albania to Zimbabwe.

The Credit Suisse Research Institute has a highly respected approach in its Global Wealth Report. Credit Suisse defines “net worth” as the market value of all assets minus any outstanding debts. Researchers calculated average wealth numbers by for adults estimated to be living in each country. We took the figures (Table 2-1 in the report) and mapped them onto a heat map of the world. It’s important to note that average numbers like these can obscure crushing levels of poverty even in what appear to be wealthy countries, however they still provide an interesting snapshot of the wealthiest and richest countries in the world.

Looking at the average net worth across the entire world indicates the enormous disparity between the developed world and everyone else. At one extreme, there are countries with net worth numbers over $500,000, and at the other extreme, there are places where people have less than $500 to their names. There is a smattering or light orange countries in between, but the worldwide map demonstrates an astonishing level of inequality between the have’s and the have-not’s.

The story in North America is one of stark inequality. Northern countries like Greenland, Canada and the United States boast extremely high average figures. It’s no surprise that Americans are by far the wealthiest with $404K, but take a look at Mexico ($20.6K) and even the Bahamas ($47.8K). This means that the US is 10 times richer than the Bahamas and an eye-popping 20 times wealthier than Mexico.”

https://howmuch.net/articles/world-wealth-map-2018

#110 IHCTD9 on 11.14.18 at 11:28 am

#107 Brian Ripley on 11.14.18 at 10:28 am
Those stats are either flat out fake, or minimum wage was that big an influence on total per capita income. #47 The Real Deal

Total Median Family Household
Income from 2016 StatsCan Census​

​Toronto = $88,170/yr

______

That number probably includes all earners in the household including kids and other extended family members. Not to be confused with a typical household consisting of 1-2 earners. Toronto probably has more earners jammed in per roof than anywhere else in Canada – maybe even North America.

Careful reading of media that further delves into this StatsCan data reveals about 78K per regular Canadian style household is more like it in Toronto. Up about 3.3% total over the last 10 years (ouch!).

https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2016/as-sa/fogs-spg/Facts-CMA-Eng.cfm?TOPIC=6&LANG=Eng&GK=CMA&GC=535

I read a while back that “economic households” (figure 3-4 earners or more) in the GTA earn a median of about 88K

#111 IHCTD9 on 11.14.18 at 11:54 am

#103 Alistair McLaughlin on 11.14.18 at 9:57 am
It is often said, nearly always correctly, that the cheapest car to drive is the one you’re driving right now, whatever that happens to be (extreme cases excepted). In Val’s case, the cheapest home to live in is the home she’s living in right now.
_____

True dat. I was recently chatting with a co worker who had scrapped plans to build a house. Land was too expensive, 10’s of thousands in fees, permits, and general regulatory BS like a 30K septic system and a 30K well. 6 figures gone before a drop of concrete went into the foundation – almost all of which goes to government for essentially ZIP. Then the taxes would have been stupid x forever. He’s staying put, just not worth the BS or the cost.

I told him to take the savings and buy a new Griz 850 twin when they hit the market, or tell the wife he’s getting old and needs a new SxS because of his back :).

#112 Y. Knott on 11.14.18 at 11:59 am

thanks trudeau, how complicated can a pipeline be to build, well for him obviously hard

– Real easy for him, as he never wanted it built in the first place. He’s a true-born “Save-the-Earth’er”, and Soros and the Sierra Club are whistling his marching-song; I’m sure he laughs himself to sleep over the collapse of Energy East, Trans-Mountain and Keystone XL. And in other news, Western Canada Select is ~ $15 a barrel; no pipeline to get it to market, and the First Nations and Sierra Club are trying to get a judge to outlaw oil transport by truck / train.

“Leave all that filthy oil in the ground – the Earth you save might be your own!!!” ad nauseam. And Canadians can go back to hewing wood and drawing water, to make a buck…

#113 Gregor Samsa on 11.14.18 at 12:19 pm

One more tidbit to add to this conversation: Kevin O’Leary’s says you need to answer just two questions to determine if you should rent or buy a property:

“Are you married?” asks O’Leary. “If the answer is no, rent.”

“If you’re married, do you have children?” he asks. “No? Rent.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/08/kevin-oleary-unless-you-can-pass-this-test-dont-buy-a-home.html

Excellent advice, IMO. So many deluded single, young, Canadians are living miserable lives as debt-slaves.

#114 Train on 11.14.18 at 12:57 pm

#112 Y. Knott – There was another pipeline that T2 killed, and secret documents showed with black outs that the government officials had approved it in principal. Train would have been the answer with a newly improved line from the oil sands to Prince Rupert Port. CN has developed new technology for the bitumen that any spill will not effect the environment, and the government is aware of this too.

#115 KLNR on 11.14.18 at 1:11 pm

@#50 Then there’s these on 11.13.18 at 9:06 pm
#81 KLNR on 11.13.18 at 10:27 am
some folks on here may find this link interesting

https://www.fastcompany.com/90266261/the-out-of-control-price-of-american-homes-in-a-single-map?utm_source=postup&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Co.Design%20Daily&position=1&partner=newsletter&campaign_date=11132018
_____________________

And yet others may find these interesting

https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/economics/home-affordability-canada-vs-us-A6q9GVzCdEy_LU5_uiMUsA/

https://www.point2homes.com/news/canada-real-estate/canada-usa-housing-market-worse.html
__________________________________
yup, pot meet kettle

#116 Howard on 11.14.18 at 1:11 pm

Wowee what a wild ride on Nat Gas today!

#117 tkid on 11.14.18 at 2:23 pm

Val, I have a brother living in Calgary. Sell your place for what you can get and rent downtown. A thousand a month rents you a decent apartment with lots of space if the boyfriend doesn’t work out.

That’s my recommendation.

#118 bdwy sktrn on 11.14.18 at 2:31 pm

Wowee what a wild ride on Nat Gas today!
————
yeah and the dow has only swung 560 today so far.

at dow 20000 does one ditch the fixed income and go all equities? Or wait for 18k?

#119 Midnights on 11.14.18 at 2:53 pm

15 SmarterSquirrel on 11.13.18 at 5:42 pm
I have a cousin who invests in pre-construction condos who has done quite well. I was considering investing in one in Toronto that he was looking at, Artworks Tower. After doing the math and realizing it wouldn’t be cash flow positive if I rented it out (based on my assumptions), I decided against investing in it.
Great article thanks
Midnights

#120 JB on 11.14.18 at 3:02 pm

#116 Howard on 11.14.18 at 1:11 pm

Wowee what a wild ride on Nat Gas today!
………………………………………………………………….
I’m covered I have two fuel sources but all of those poor suckers linked into condos have no choice. Good luck one day when the gas lines fail! Condos freeze up quicker than brass balls on a monkey. I can hear the pipes bursting now.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Gas-Prices/Natural-Gas-Prices-Soar-To-9-Year-Highs-As-Cold-Forecast-Bites.html

#121 Stan Brooks on 11.14.18 at 3:04 pm


#118 bdwy sktrn on 11.14.18 at 2:31 pm
Wowee what a wild ride on Nat Gas today!
————
yeah and the dow has only swung 560 today so far.

at dow 20000 does one ditch the fixed income and go all equities? Or wait for 18k?

Some say it will go down to 5000.

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2010/08/24/dow-5k-on-horizon-nenner.html

Buy when it hits 5001 on it’s way back up?

#122 Stan Brooks on 11.14.18 at 3:06 pm

Here is the link:

https://www.open-mind.news/index.php/2018/11/14/nenner-warns-dow-is-going-back-to-5000-but-life-is-not-going-to-stop/

#123 Brian Ripley on 11.14.18 at 3:08 pm

Toronto probably has more earners jammed in per roof than anywhere else in Canada – maybe even North America. #110 IHCTD9

I think that is a good guess judging from my Employment Rates chart (Sept Data; will get Oct data next week)
http://www.chpc.biz/earnings-employment.html#Rate

There are probably many household residents in Toronto who have dropped off the employment rolls but have T4’s that get counted into “household” earnings.

#124 KLNR on 11.14.18 at 3:10 pm

@#113 Gregor Samsa on 11.14.18 at 12:19 pm
One more tidbit to add to this conversation: Kevin O’Leary’s says you need to answer just two questions to determine if you should rent or buy a property:

“Are you married?” asks O’Leary. “If the answer is no, rent.”

“If you’re married, do you have children?” he asks. “No? Rent.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/08/kevin-oleary-unless-you-can-pass-this-test-dont-buy-a-home.html

Excellent advice, IMO. So many deluded single, young, Canadians are living miserable lives as debt-slaves.
___________________________
could probably take single and young out of that sentence lol

#125 IHCTD9 on 11.14.18 at 3:12 pm

“I bought a (gasp) condo in (gasp) Calgary at age 26 in 2013 with my modest marketing job and immaculate saving skills. I put $48,000 down and paid $231,000. It sure is a beauty. I’ve never regretted buying it and I really enjoyed living there for the last five years, but now I am living with my boyfriend and we plan to get married and start a family.”
_____

So the above is reasonably impressive when you consider what was accomplished and by when. At 26 Val had 48K that she saved on her own – that speaks.

Now she’s 31, and wants to get married and have kids. Yeah I can see that, her most fertile years are already behind her. In only 3-4 years, she’s running smack into some strong reproductive headwinds that only increase from there on in, and become worse with every additional year that passes. At this point, if she wants 2 kiddies, she’ll barely get them born by 35.

IMHO, she doesn’t have any waiting time left if kids are on the menu, she’s got no more “caution time”. They’re not growing up any more than they already are – commitment and determination will get a Western marriage further than love will any day of the week anyway. If you two can handle some rough waters without collapsing into a quivering gelatinous blob of negativity, then you’ll be fine. I think Val is not a snowflake type – just a hunch. If you guys both want the marriage to work – it’ll work, simple as that.

So on that note: skip the house for now, get hitched, start nesting in the condo. Wait on the market for a few years and see what’s up. You may be glad you did. Kids don’t really need a ton of interior space. I’m sure you’ve got parks/beaches etc for when the time comes.

#126 Steven Rowlandson on 11.14.18 at 3:55 pm

They should view their possible home as a place to live plus nothing. Buy it for equal to or less than 6000 man hours using one income and a 25% down payment with the balance financed over 25 years at a fixed rate. Enjoy it and start a family. That is the classic 3 years pay rule.

#127 Fish on 11.15.18 at 10:24 am

Provincial Land Tax
The Provincial Land Tax (PLT) is the property tax paid in unincorporated areas of northern Ontario outside municipal boundaries

https://www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/consultations/landtaxreform/

Recreational Waterfront Property Assessment in Ontario

https://www.mpac.ca/PropertyTypes/PropertyAssessmentProcedures/RecreationalWaterfrontPropertyAssessmentOntario

#128 Russ on 11.15.18 at 1:57 pm

JB on 11.14.18 at 3:02 pm
#116 Howard on 11.14.18 at 1:11 pm

Wowee what a wild ride on Nat Gas today!
………………………………………………………………….
I’m covered I have two fuel sources but all of those poor suckers linked into condos have no choice. Good luck one day when the gas lines fail! Condos freeze up quicker than brass balls on a monkey. I can hear the pipes bursting now.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Gas-Prices/Natural-Gas-Prices-Soar-To-9-Year-Highs-As-Cold-Forecast-Bites.html
=====================

A price increase from $4 -> $5 would be a cake walk for us right now.

Vancouver gas market flirted with $100/GJ gas for Friday’s gas day. Enbridge is inspecting the line near Chilliwack and reduced capacity some more.

The operation burns 4000 GJ per day so that’s a quarter of million dollar premium to operate manufacturing for the day.

We have to cut back.

Cheers, R