Katelyn’s condo is in DT Toronto. “Perfect location,” she says. “Perfect building. So why can’t I sell it? I have to.”
It’s been a couple of months since she listed. Price reductions: 2. Relistings: 1. Showings: 16. Offers: 0. A year ago – even three months into the past – there’d likely have been a sale within a week. Multiple offers, even. Her agent, Pamela, tells me, “The market is weird. All I can say about it. The new buyers are just not showing up.” When the official realtor stats are released at the beginning in a few days, it’ll be an interesting tale. Seems we have entered a new phase.
Increasing DOM, relistings, reduced prices and scared sellers are just a few indicators of a market in the throes of transition. It would be hard to argue that a one-two punch of higher rates and the stress test has not done serious damage. To buyer confidence. To available credit. And now to sales and prices.
This statement by a prominent Toronto broker struck me this week: “In this late stage of Canada’s housing and credit cycle where house prices are moderating and interest rates are rising it’s not the time to be increasing your overall debt load – it’s time to deleverage.”
Hey, that sounds like me. But it’s not. Instead these are the words of veteran realtor John Pasalis. Together with Teranet he wrote a report on how pooched a large cohort of debt-pickled GTA homeowners are, now that the cost of money is normalizing and the stress test is getting truly stressful. Scary stuff. For example, the share of homeowners refinancing debt, using their houses as banks to suck up high-interest loans and inflate their mortgages, has jumped from 12% two years ago to 20% now – a 67% increase. Even scarier: “More and more homeowners are turning to higher interest private debt.”
In other words, regular people – who have jobs, new iPhones, kids, Netflix and pets – are struggling with existing debt service costs, and being shoved into the jaws of the sharks, who charge rates (sit down) of between 7% and 20%. All so borrowers can avoid the stress test.
Many buyers looking to take on additional debt when refinancing their home (to consolidate debt or to finance a renovation) are having a hard time qualifying with traditional banks under the new stress tests. As a result, owners are turning to private lenders to fill this gap. Private lenders serve as the lender of last resort for most home buyers and owners.
Now, kids, remember that these are the “lucky” people who own residential real estate already. You know, those folks that all the entitled moisters and Boomer-haters come here to dump on as being rich, privileged and out-of-touch. Turns out many of them may, in fact, have been the greater fools – buying inflated assets with a massive pile of borrowed money destined to reset to higher rates (as this blog forecast with nauseating regularity). As money gets more dear, houses become less so. It’s a vicious circle. There is no escape now for those who flung all their eggs into a single basket.
Here is Pasalis’ stark news. And be aware – this is coming from a person who makes his living flogging houses. Some truths can no longer be hidden:
So, who are all of these homeowners turning to private lenders? Do they resemble the sub-prime owners in the US who had poor credit and no income? Not at all, according to a panel of mortgage brokers specializing in private lending who spoke at a housing conference I recently attended.
They described home owners with great credit and fantastic jobs who are simply living beyond their means. Owners who accumulate debt each year because of countless expenses they hadn’t budgeted for that they can’t say no to (like house repairs, surgery for the dog, and hockey lessons for the kids who suddenly want to play).
Unfortunately, there are two problems with this trend. Firstly, interest rates are only expected to rise over the next couple of years which means people who are having a hard time making ends meet today are going to have an even harder time a year from now.
The other problem is that the amount of money people can pull out of their home to finance their lifestyle is finite – especially in a market where house prices are not rising rapidly. Eventually, that well will run dry and owners will have no choice but to sell their house.
If this is correct (and it is), a large deleveraging in the real estate market is inevitable. It will be the consequence of over-buying, over-borrowing and raw financial illiteracy. Real estate went up because rates went down. Now we’re reverting to the norm. The impact over time on house values in those places where debt was snorfled with gay abandon should be dramatic. Yup. The GTA. Van. Victoria. Prices and sales dribble. Listings gush.
Some solace is taken by those who argue the central bank will turn tail once real estate descends, and plunge rates – especially if the country heads into a housing-induced recession. But, a faint hope. In fact, in the last few days The Ploz himself moved to quash it.
Testifying before my old buddies on the House of Commons Finance Committee, Governor Poloz said the Bank of Canada intends on pushing its rate up to “neutral levels” from the rock-bottom depths of the past few years. This won’t happen overnight, of course, likely within the next 18 months.
What does this mean?
So far we’ve had five rate hikes. The bank rate has achieved 1.75% and Poloz has told us ‘neutral’ is about 3%. This means five more increases – so we’re 50% of the way into the tightening process.
Want cheaper houses? Just wait.
About the picture...
“Seen on Learmouth Road in Coldstream, BC,” says blog dog Barb, who snapped it. “A metaphor for all manner of captions…*grin*…”
Suggestions welcome.
146 comments ↓
Let the interest rate increases BEGIN!
Would love to see an update of
torontorealestatecharts.com
I believe I have seen someone post here with that name.
Perfect. Now the question is what will the commies in Ottawa do when it call comes tumbling down? That’s what I’m worried about…
Will these people demand raises or move to higher paying jobs and drive down the cost of money? Or will it be like the 90’s when everyone was driving a beat up old rust bucket (like my parents).
My experience right now in the trenches tells a different story. I’ve been shopping for a detached in Burlington or a townhouse in oakville and have now been outbid 3 times. Admittedly it has been for AAA listings, shitty listings are sitting longer. It’s business as usual, at least in these two markets.
I have a very nice 2 bedroom condo very close to the downtown in Calgary. I bought it for $325,000 in 2008 because of a divorce, right before everything crashed. Today, 10 years later, I just saw a similar unit in the neighborhood going for $275,000. It’s being rented now and the rent covers everything, but I think it’s going to get a lot worse before it gets any better.
Two realtors that I spoke with recently (with one whom I know very well) say things are slowing down big time, nothing is moving. Nothing is selling, and they are having a hard time convincing people wanting to list that the parties over and the prices they think they could get are in the rear view mirror now. People listing don’t want to admit it and are still in fantasy land. In addition, Buyers can’t get access to the same amount of credit and / or are unwilling to purchase at the prices being listed which = no sales! Looks like bah humbug for these realtors this year with no sales and none on the horizon. One guy said he had to send his wife back to work because there was no income coming in from him not having any sales. Yikes!
Montreal never gets a mention, but the bubble has been huge here as well as certain neighbourhoods, notably tbe Plateau, Miles End, Outremont, Westmount, and Victoria Village. Many places have quadrupled in value since the year 2000. And, as elsewhere, many uneducated geniuses have overleveraged themselves to the hilt to buy multiple homes using the increasing value of earlier acquisitions to get mortgwges for new ones. If you analyze the ownership data in these neighbourhoods, you will be shocked to see how a small group of highly leveraged speculators each “own” in the order of 5 to 10 homes in these areas. I wonder what the deleveraging effect will be once the fun is really over…
People have been relying on the equity in their homes to finance their lavish lifestyles for YEARS now.
The debts have already been rung up.
Rising rates have put the brakes on rising home values.
In the new year, the bills come due.
Then the panicked selling will begin.
Unlike the US, where the majority of ‘deleveraging’ and real estate crash involved middle class homeowners selling off secondary and speculative properties – losing fortunes, but for the most part keeping their principal residences, Canadian homeowners won’t be so lucky.
When deleveraging your properties, remember to sell the biggest one first: you’ll be able to pay off a larger share of your debts, and if you move into one of your smaller assets you’ll likely pay less for operating costs.
Most don’t do it that way. Instead they sell off all the little things, losing money on each one until they end up owing thousands of dollars for stuff they don’t even own any more.
I don’t think people realize how close to the edge many people are living. People use credit with reckless abandon, just go to a mall and try and get a parking spot. People are spending like drunken sailors. Our adult child works at a high end retail store and when a persons card gets declined and they say “hold the item” I’ll go get some cash, they never return. If you took away peoples credit cards and HELOCs the malls would be empty and the people shopping in the high end retail stores, would actually be people who have money to spend.
Buddy of mine works for BMO.
He attended a local pep rally with a next-to-head honcho from Toronto recently. The guy said that 2020 is when the standing wave of refinancings really hits the fan and advised the troops to stay alert in 2019 for fire sales. They expect a “few” forclosures.
Let’s see.
Garth, thanks are in order; we just jumped ship from big-bank financial mgmt, to a more responsive, fee-based advisor. Also upped our risk tolerance(all the way to ‘balanced’!), due to the valuable information that this pathetic blog offers up for free, everyday.
Victoria is certainly seeing a slow melt in prices for entry-level SFH, along with rising DOM. The higher end homes have been suffering for a while, now. No move-up buyers; the new lending rules are doing the job. The economy here, like alot of southern BC, is very dependant on construction/RE. As the work dries up in these sectors, housing demand will sag further.
For the love of all that’s holy please cool off the Victoria market by 30 to 49% PULLEEZE
RATM
The melt is happening here in New Brunswick also. Two houses for sale on my street of 7. One assessed at 240k, the other 190k. First owner was asking 239k. After 2 price reductions it sold for 198k. 20% below assessed. 2nd owner listed at 179k. Got an offer for 164k and then nothing. Took off the market. Just relisted for 164k. Realtor said he would be lucky to get 150k. Smaller numbers than YYZ,YVR but still pertinent examples.
happy Days of the Dead all u Dogs
The Days of the Dead
October 31st – All Hallow’s Eve, Halloween
November 1st, Dia de los innocents, All Saint’s Day
November 2nd – the Day of the Dead, All Soul’s Day
Indeed painful for those who bought in YVR at the peak with very little to put down. However, I am hoping that in the LONG TERM these price reductions will allow the next generation (the ones now at University or studying a trade etc…) to have a fighting chance to be able to live in greater YVR, have families, and a decent housing arrangement just like us 50 year olds had years ago. New industries (high-tech or otherwise) will then be able to attract workers who can afford to live here with the salaries offered and, in this way, YVR will hopefully not become Monaco…. I don’t care that I am losing value on my place…. A world-class YVR does not mean that housing purchase and rental prices are Hong Kong level with the average salary one of the lowest in Canada… this is not the definition of “world-class” that I want to see…. set the clock back please…
DELETED
When you drive through Tim’s next time or the shopping malls – count the number of real estate related trucks and cars that have signs on their doors.
Reno, electricians, plumbers, sales, etc
It will shock you
Those aren’t the bagholders – those are the ones who rely on the bubble.
The secondary industries are getting whacked.
Garth,
I don’t see the logic to binge on 20% private loans only to avoid the stress test. Is the CHMC insurance that big a bump in total debt that it will warrant paying interest to the tune of 20%? Even at the conservative 7%, I still think failing the test and taking on the CMHC insurance is a better deal for the greater fools.
Thoughts…
-RD
The stress test is not to avoid paying for CHMC insurance. It is to establish a credit limit. People who fail the test and need/want more funds must go rogue to get them, since the banks will not lend. – Garth
#2mikeb.
Then just go to the website and look at the chats dumbass. Don’t be so lazy expecting to be spoon fed by others.
Howard on 11.01.18 at 9:46 am
#65 When Will They Raise Rates? on 11.01.18 at 2:02 am
Without immigrants we would all be poorer. BTW, the coutry’s mostly empty. – Garth
They’re flooding 350,000 immigrants per year into areas where the jobs actually exist, while simultaneously restricting housing construction in the immediate and surrounding areas.
Do you not see a problem with this?
—————————————————————
It almost seems like Garth expects native born Canadians (but only those under 60ish, naturally) to move to Yellowknife and Kapuskasing in order to make room for more New Canadians in Toronto and Vancouver.
There are 8 million people in the GTA and greater Van, and welcoming some new folks who constitute a drop in the bucket is the rational and decent course of action. Maybe you should go to Texas and fight ‘the invasion’ along with Trump. Sounds like you have the right attitude. – Garth
Currently living in Kirkland Lake and i can tell you there are plenty of immigrants in Northern Ontario. They seem to be much more willing to go where the work is. so no, they arent all cramming themselves into the GTA and the LM, granted, most of them are. There are plenty of high paying jobs in the north that often go unfilled because few people want to move here. I moved here from just outside the GTA in 2016 and in terms of a career choice, i do not regret it one bit.
All of the socialist supporters are about to learn the hard way about banks and governments.
These two, run predominately by the children of the wealthy, work together.
The idea is to keep you poor, keep you working, and keep you believing in the social myth that pays their bills. People have to pay high taxes and interest. Stuff has to be expensive.
If everyone owned their stuff, had no debt and could live cheaply, no one would work.
That situation craters the incomes of the wealthy, who as a rule do not work but rather earn their incomes from dividends and capital gains (which is why these are taxed less than your employment income and always will be).
The solution?
The socialist cause.
Tax the crap out of everyone, loan out tons of money to create price inflation in basic goods (like housing) and couch your taxes in socialist causes.
Keep the tax money. Don’t actually give it to the needy. Give it to the children of the wealthy who will provide “services” to the poor at vastly inflated rates.
The result: a struggling middle class that cannot ever get ahead or make ends meet, poor who stay poor, and an upper class closed off to the masses like the speed of light is closed off to aero engineers.
It’s about to happen again.
Hope no one quit their day jobs….
#16 yvr_lurker
Either prices are sky high, interest near zero.
Or prices are low, but rates are sky high.
Either way, buying is expensive.
It’s just who you have to pay the bulk: bank or seller.
This is great news for my family and myself, we are planning on moving home within the next two years. It’s gotten just too weird down here in the states.
Liquid. Balanced. Diversified. Debt free forever.
Takes knowledge and creativity as well as superhuman control and a total lack of ego as well as a one of a kind modesty for a man to live life as I do. Freedom First.
Haven’t seen HHCE here lately to say the Shyster realtors are going down in flames…
Well folks, with the socialists in Ottawa (and here in BC) desperate to tax and spend your dollars (endlessly), the many massively indebted Canucks, and rising interest rates, it could get ugly out there fast.
Time to batten down the hatches, maybe raise a little cash, buy a case of single malt (and some kibbles for your friend), and watch the show.
World wildlife ‘falls by 58% in 40 years’
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-37775622
Garth Turner served as national director of the Vancouver-based Sierra Legal Defence Fund, an organization dedicated to upholding environmental laws.
So Garth , will we survive another 30 years of humanity paving the planet and covering the oceans in plastic debris ?
Caption: “Life’s a Witch!”
‘who are simply living beyond their means’. Ah yes, the age old ‘but I wants it!’ vs ‘living within your means’. Because a home reno or kids playing hockey are not ‘necessities’. They are nice to haves. If ‘keeping up with the Jones’ means matching their debt load & filing for bankruptcy at the same time, time to shed the ego & accept that financially speaking you may not be ‘richer than you think’.
I was in my 50’s before I “ had it all “. Big house with i/g pool, upscale neighbourhood, 2 vehicles, boat, atv, snowmobile, etc. I always had little or no debt.
Nowadays kids in their 20’s or 30’s have all that I had in my 50’s and good for them. But mostly all done with 2-3% mortgages/helocs. It could be really ugly out there in a year or two. It makes me wonder how high interest rates can go before the debt bomb explodes.
Our friend Benny Tal thinks 3% may be way too high and I think I agree with him. Inflation data has been largely the same as it has been for the last 5 years with the only difference being Poloz’s unexplained optimism.
I dont understand why they needed to do nothing, even cutting twice in 2016 and now it’s a race to Jam through 10 hikes in 2 years?? Something is up and it wont be our asset values.
There are witches in the hills calling my name
saying come join us sister, come kiss the flame
Come dance in the moonbeams, ride the night wind
make love to the darkness and laugh at man’s sins
I shiver with delight, I shiver with fear
my heart wants to go but my soul’s filled with fear
So I turn to my lover and ask what do I do
do I answer their call or stay here with you
But under spell of deep sleep he moans and turns away
taking his protection and my desire to stay
So I rise to the hill tops, I ride the night winds
I make love to the darkness and laugh at man’s sins
# 23 either way
In 2002, prime rate was just under 5%… Could get a decent 2-bedroom apartment downtown YVR for around 300K and a decent house in Dunbar, Kits, or Point Grey for around 650K… I know these numbers since this is when I was out there looking…. perfectly reasonable for two income professional family (house) or single (apt.)…. Clearly situation is infinitely worse for people starting out now…. no comparison…. let the next generation have a similar chance with the answer not being move to Yellowknife, Sept-Illes, or wherever…..
WHAT’S THAT TICKING SOUND?
Because debt doesn’t matter, right? right? I have heard that line so many times, it sounded like an old broken record. Funny, every time someone goes down the drain— it’s because they can’t meet their debt obligations. Of course the fix— is always more debt, right? right?. Most people(except you and me) are in too deep. They’re all just treading water to stay alive. Nobody has a plan except to just keep treading, double down and hanging on. I’m no explosive expert, but from what I see in the movies when a bomb goes off there’s not a lot of warning and the results can be catastrophic. For years Garth has been working in the bomb squad pointing out potential financial trip wires. Some he saved, but a great number ran ahead , no danger here, right? right? You can trust me as the teller of truth in the land of gypsies, tramps and thieves.
Where I live – relatively new building with lots of flipper specuvestors – CRA keeps sending letters to people who [a] never resided in the building [b] sold off their vacant unit [c] have no forwarding address. So a group of us reads all their unforwardable mail (illegal, right?). Hilarious. CRA is trying to recoup HST credits because it appears there is no evidence these people lived in these residences. Seems to me in Canada, our honour systems have to be jettisoned. Make everyone pay the HST at point of sale (new build) then rebate the residents who PROVE residency a year later IN PERSON. And we could do this to just about everything in Canada: pay first and prove later, for the credits due, etc.
Unfortunately I had to take on debt to buy a new mattress for my mom’s basement
2% apr for 48 months
Where’s the deflation?
So the tax man has a new game.
It’s called the “net worth” argument.
The idea is, a person declares their income each year. You can simply add up all the years, subtract a reasonable number for cost of living, and compare the resulting figure to the person’s net worth.
Any discrepancy on the upward side is undeclared income, which you can then impute to the person, going back 30 years, with interest, and liquidate their net worth in back taxes and interest.
Why should this matter to honest tax paying Canadians?
Because most of the average baby boomer middle class person’s net worth came from their house, a non taxable capital gain.
For people who recently sold their houses, for millions in untaxed capital gains, this new tax game is a serious problem.
You have to be able to prove that your millions came from your house and that you lived in said house as a principle residence for the entire time, going back 20 to 30 years.
Banks keep records for 7 years.
Utility companies usually have five years back.
Try to prove that in 1978, you lived in your house as a principle residence, and you will start to see the problem.
Old family photos only go so far.
People need to start recognizing this and preparing for it.
The tax man acts presumptively and they have all the power.
Be sure you can prove your case.
Yes, it would be great to get back to normal rates with normal living. Would have to agree with #16 yvr__lurker on giving the trades/university students a fighting chance in the community. And I will add the honest middle class worker who works to provide and cannot get ahead, only falling behind.
And maybe get small business back, hopefully. When Harper was in power he did say that “small business is not happening in Canada.” I can see that.
But we now have $40 billion LNG “just like the other countries” and we get “build new schools.” Everything is all taken care of and we don’t have to worry about the emissions because it is exempt and the other disadvantages. All is great.
But maybe we should add a few more ministers on the list like Minister of Green Power, Minister of Distorting Earth, Minister of Loss Of Sea and Wildlife, Minister of Wells and Water, Minister of Cause and Effect from Chemicals and so on.
Right now all is great. Just ask the UN.
Currently living in Kirkland Lake and i can tell you there are plenty of immigrants in Northern Ontario. They seem to be much more willing to go where the work is. so no, they arent all cramming themselves into the GTA and the LM, granted, most of them are. There are plenty of high paying jobs in the north that often go unfilled because few people want to move here. I moved here from just outside the GTA in 2016 and in terms of a career choice, i do not regret it one bit.
My wife and I did the cross country Teardrop trailer camping thing this past summer. We used the Redcoat Trail and stayed well away from the Trans Canada eastbound and the Yellow-head west bound. Mostly.
Secondary roads. On our way into Ontario and them out we spent a lot of time camping in northern Ontario.
All that to say I 100% agree with the above…from roadside motels to two pump, surface storage tank gas stations to small town cafes it was overwhelmingly visible minorities/recent immigrants resurrecting these spots, employing local kids/folks to work the places.
2 1/2 months, 15,000 km, almost all of it on secondary roads, every province except Newfoundland and I will say that literally everyone we met, new or old stock, young or old, were the nicest people you could hope for.
Canada is a nice place…and I’m glad that some of you aren’t my immediate neighbours.
I have Google Translate with the dog whistle module installed.
About the picture…
“Seen on Learmouth Road in Coldstream, BC,” says blog dog Barb, who snapped it. “A metaphor for all manner of captions…*grin*…”
Suggestions welcome.
///////////////////
Spit roasted…
M44BC
Curiously, in the real life, looks peoples are not full of debt, every one look rich!
They travel a lot (even Venise residents tell tourist “go home”, at summer time if you want to go on Vancouver Island..good luck! …4 sailing wait, restaurants are full, and so on.
What I read on debt, etc..don’t reflect real life..at least for now.
#39
In YVR many small businesses are being killed by the sky-high rents, often controlled by overseas “investors”. Just walk down Broadway st. west of Granville or on 4th, the turn-over in small businesses is much more than ever before. Good friend owns a cafe-ice cream place in Coal harbour…. deserted in the winter as many of the towers nearby have very little occupancy; the only way he barely makes it is through the large tourist trade in the summer……. i.e. resort town… the Monaco effect… I have issues with this concept of a “world-class city” …. need to nurture small businesses (other than Real-estate based), high-tech spinoffs, film industry, etc… etc.. to diversify the economy….
#38
Combine this with the fact that Selfie Boy has given StatsCan the thumbs up to help themselves to your confidential banking transaction information (and, in typical arrogant style, has shrugged off the notion that this is a bad thing, and it’s “uncanadian” to argue it) – you could well be on to something.
#32 catalyst
I completely agree. On the ground I don’t see the reason to change direction so suddenly. And I heard poloz speak once, he doesn’t really convince me he gets it.
#38 Ace Goodheart
Land & Titles for evidence or Land Registry, whatever it is called where you lived.
OR, our ever efficient Security Services:
RCMP (before CSIS came into being).
Worked for a large US multinational (with an office in Canada) in the 1980’s on US Aerospace & Defence projects and needed a Top Secret clearance.
I got it.
I asked for some of the information they gathered.
The RCMP sent me pages that listed every place I had lived, phone numbers and how long at each place – the same for where I worked. I had moved around a lot in Canada during my youth and also studied/lived overseas (they had the exact info. for that too).
Their data came in handy for putting exact dates on my resume back then.
Typo: “You know, those folks that all the entitled moisters and Boomer-haters come her[e] to dump on as being rich, privileged and out-of-touch.”
I’ll send an invoice for my proofing :)
Whats your thoughts on CoPower Green Bonds 5%?
#32 Catalyst on 11.01.18 at 7:10 pm
Our friend Benny Tal thinks 3% may be way too high and I think I agree with him. Inflation data has been largely the same as it has been for the last 5 years with the only difference being Poloz’s unexplained optimism.
I dont understand why they needed to do nothing, even cutting twice in 2016 and now it’s a race to Jam through 10 hikes in 2 years?? Something is up and it wont be our asset values.
_ _ _
Sure, and your friend Benny Tal shills for the bank, which makes money by writing mortgages. Not only that, but for one of the two banks singled out for writing an inordinate amount of loans to foreign buyers in Vancouver.
https://business.financialpost.com/investing/global-investor/canadian-banks-help-chinese-flout-their-laws-to-get-piece-of-smurfing-billions
Freedom First #25
Is that the original FF….the quintessential MGTOW?
F53On
#22 Ace;
“If everyone owned their stuff, had no debt and could live cheaply, no one would work. ”
Sorta sounds like me and the wife, although we both enjoy what we do, and choose to “work”…it’s more of a temporary inconvenience, actually; about 2-3 days a week.
I would add one qualification, despite agreeing with your analysis; “nobody would work” at jobs they hated, for people they detested, and/or for companies/institutions they despised or didn’t respect.
I’m assuming that being freed from the prospect of a lifetime on the treadmill, a few peeps might have been prescient enuff to educate themselves about why they hated/despised/didn’t respect some of the above; and do so intelligently and without malice forethought.
They might even have the time to find out what they’re actually good at, and what they enjoy doing…and do those things instead.
Same difference I guess, and just as dangerous to TPTB.
Perhaps more so?
Life gets real simple when you don’t owe money and aren’t indebted, period.
4th Bacardi and diet rant
Other then Garth’s blog my connection with Canadians is 7 in-laws from New Brunswick and 3 beachfront neighbors in Florida.
I’m a public High School graduate that raised 6 kids and still managed to build a business that I sold at 60 for 7 figures and retired.
I suffered through our real estate melt down and lost big especially with commercial property I owned.
Add to that an unexpected divorce (where’s the freedom first guy?) and I’m still considered rich.
What’s my point? You guys. I read all the comments. Half of you are liberal and want bigger government and new and higher taxes and a million refugees a year to pay for. Anybody know what the hotel bill is up to so far? The other half are “professional” and think nothing bad will ever happen to you so let it go. Insult the little people and keep them in their place. Get a bug out on the east coast and stay politically correct.
Who said bankruptcy happens slowly and then real quick? Expect it. Even you rich professionals make your money only when the common guy has money to spend.
That’s why I’m a degenerate that respects the need for Trump. It is not and never has been a trickle down economy. It’s a trickle up economy. Trump with all his warts is working for the working man.
I believe my side is going to lose congress next week. The downfall of America’s middle class will be the downfall of Canada as well.
So correct my grammar, keep you nose in the air and know, your turn is coming. Good luck.
My 26 old niece was recently boasting that she had already made 150 k on 2 preconstruction condos she bought. She planning to rent one out and live in one of them. Looks like she is in for a rude awakening.
#” What will the commies in Ottawa do”
Surely you know : they will step up the already implemented Wealth Tax, and not bother to veil it
in “carbon rebates”…just go full speed into a”one time”redistribution of wealth agenda to allay the distorted unfairness extant whereby the thrifty and harder working have unfairly accumulated (gasp) more wealth than the grasshoppers. Worked out great in Russia and Venezuela. Cheers!
#46 Dolce Vita:
Land titles has It’s own little trick for us.
Back in the early 2000s Ontario shredded all the paper land title documents and introduced electronic registration.
So you can now only go back as far as the date of conversion from the paper title to the electronic one.
The persons stating CPP is insurance.
.okay how much I get if I retire or die at age 40? At 50? Goose eggs.
A condo realtor in Toronto told me recently that they are doing only condo leases . No other work available.
This Time It’s Different. A good article from May 2017 and worth a read.
https://www.macleans.ca/economy/why-every-housing-bubble-looks-like-the-new-normal/
So Mongohouse is taking the treb/cartel to the wood shed. counter claim for 50k in lost revenue +++
mongohouse claims action is without merit,if they can make there position before the bench the treb/cartel may regret starting this,hears hoping mongohouse wins the day in court.
also odds are starting to favor the possibility that the new and improved aka found a pair poloz may pull the trigger on a further 1/4 point Dec 5th
Swerved to miss the flying pig
I’m 43. I grew up in a home where my mom and dad didn’t make wise financial desicions. Dad had a union job making huge bucks and mom did whatever she felt like doing whenever she wanted. They used credit cards in the eighties to an excessive degree. It was all based on dads work security. They felt invincible because there would always be another big fat paycheck to make those payments. They financed it all. Never saved a dollar. As the years went by in that household, things began to sour. The job was abusive and toxic. It required soul crushing hours and mandatory overtime. Mom and dad began to constantly argue over money in an alcohol addled state. The home became an unsafe place to be. If my father had not enslaved himself to a lot of debt, he could have left that miserable place he called “day jail” and lived a happier life. Thirty years later my dad retired from that place at 62 years old. Both elbows shot, both knees ground to powder, and within a few months of retirement was told he was going to die of cancer. He battled with cancer for 7 years and at the age of 69 he passed away. That was last year. You know, I had to clean up his empire of dirt. I remembered all of the old days sifting through thousands of pounds of tools and belongings. The one thing I couldn’t remember were all the good times. That’s because there were so few. All my childhood consisted of was watching two lost souls destroying each other chasing the wind. When I hear reports about Canadian homes dangling over a financial abyss, I worry about the children. They are the ones who won’t understand the tectonic forces tearing the parents they love to shreds and pitting them against one another. The love of money and the love of the things it can buy are the root of all evil, and anyone who has been led astray by that love will stab themselves all over with many pains. Sadly many young lives will be affected by the things to come.
So are immigrants welcome on this blog or what?
People always tell me that choosing to live in Canada instead of Australia proves that I’ve got rocks in my head.
I don’t have rocks in my head,I’ve got a whole gravel pit…
M44BC
@#40 Ustabe on 11.01.18 at 7:47 pm
Currently living in Kirkland Lake and i can tell you there are plenty of immigrants in Northern Ontario. They seem to be much more willing to go where the work is. so no, they arent all cramming themselves into the GTA and the LM, granted, most of them are. There are plenty of high paying jobs in the north that often go unfilled because few people want to move here. I moved here from just outside the GTA in 2016 and in terms of a career choice, i do not regret it one bit.
My wife and I did the cross country Teardrop trailer camping thing this past summer. We used the Redcoat Trail and stayed well away from the Trans Canada eastbound and the Yellow-head west bound. Mostly.
Secondary roads. On our way into Ontario and them out we spent a lot of time camping in northern Ontario.
All that to say I 100% agree with the above…from roadside motels to two pump, surface storage tank gas stations to small town cafes it was overwhelmingly visible minorities/recent immigrants resurrecting these spots, employing local kids/folks to work the places.
2 1/2 months, 15,000 km, almost all of it on secondary roads, every province except Newfoundland and I will say that literally everyone we met, new or old stock, young or old, were the nicest people you could hope for.
Canada is a nice place…and I’m glad that some of you aren’t my immediate neighbours.
I have Google Translate with the dog whistle module installed.
________________________________
lol great post. i’d love to do that trip with the fam
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Hey, where’s JSS? Sleeping on the job apparently :)
Manulife raised its dividend 14% today.
Time to rub tummy!
Elizabeth May thought she was turning left then reality hit her. Great Photo
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#60 Steve on 11.01.18 at 9:34 pm
——
I’ll bet you learned a few exceedingly valuable lessons from all that too no?
I likely learned a few of the same ones through my parents as well, although fortunately not through the same teaching methods.
Aye, the love of money (and possessions) is carnage waiting to happen. I have a couple in-laws who live simply to chase the dollar. No kids, no fun, no hobbies, and no time for anything else – extended family included.
For these folks the old adage “If you’re not careful, you will end up where you are headed” is an appropriate admonishment. But I’ll let someone else tell them! Life goes fast when you age two years every 12 months.
PS, if that’s the real Freedom First up there, welcome back!
#60 Steve on 11.01.18 at 9:34 pm
Poignant and well-written Steve. Your vivid and painful memories will serve one purpose. You’ll ensure that you won’t repeat that in your family home. Good for you.
Witnessed a sad episode today when picking up my new prescription glasses. An old gentleman…about 80+ handed his eye test prescription to the clerk and asked the price. $260 the clerk replied. He said “just hold off, I’ll be able to pay at the end of this month”.
We’re talking about his eyesight! $260!
It’s sad out there in so many ways.
Less than assessed.
This Westside detached went for 31% less than the recommended retail price.
The details…
3937 w 37th ave,Vancouver.
Originally asking 3.69
Just sold for 3.30
Assessment 4.76
People might as well save some gas money and buy closer to the Eastside where all the services are moving to or are shutting down.
Mechanic shops,hardware stores,paint stores,tool rentals are some of the places I’ve seen recently relocating on the Westside due to the desire to build condos on every thoroughfare.
You know what you can buy for lunch on most Main Streets nowadays?
Concrete.
Hard to swallow…
M44BC
https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/3937-west-37th-avenue
Guess who got a 14% raise…
Manulife…
14% dividend increase.
Rub tummy
Half way there, eh? Moisters feeling the heat now? Oh boy!
Moisters need to learn from the ancient ones (Boomers). There is much to learn from those older and wiser. So I will give you a piece of 2700 year old wisdom from the book of Jeremiah in the Bible:
“If you have run with the footmen, and they have wearied you, Then how can you contend with horses? (Jer. 12:5 NKJV)”
Translation: If you are having problems with the current market and mortgage rates, how will you deal with it when these conditions get much worse?
@#40Ustabe
Loved your description of your holiday. We would love to do that. I’ve never heard of the Redcoat Trail.
Will have to check it out. Sounds fabulous. The kids can use the cottage for the summer and we’ll explore Canada! YEAH! – a change! We might even get all the way from BC to PEI. Perhaps Garth will be “at home” !
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We live in a credit-based world. And credit growth in Canada is at a 35 year low. Also, debt servicing ratios are at an all-time high.
Deleveraging is right. And it’s gonna be painful.
https://www.risktopia.com/2018/10/canada-is-ripe-for-excruciating.html
Over 40% of young Torontonians give up dream of owning home
https://toronto.citynews.ca/video/2018/11/01/over-40-of-young-torontonians-give-up-dream-of-owning-home/
To clean up the Alberta Tar sands could cost $260 billion.
This could ruin Alberta and Canada.
————
The F-150 is the best selling vehicle in Canada.
120,000 sold in 2017.
136 liters to fill up one of these monsters.
Time to tax them into oblivion.
https://globalnews.ca/news/4617664/cleaning-up-albertas-oilpatch-could-cost-260-billion-regulatory-documents-warn/
#46 Dolce Vita on 11.01.18 at 8:11 pm
“The RCMP sent me pages that listed every place I had lived, phone numbers and how long at each place – the same for where I worked. I had moved around a lot in Canada during my youth and also studied/lived overseas (they had the exact info. for that too).
Their data came in handy for putting exact dates on my resume back then.”
#49 AGuyInVancouver on 11.01.18 at 8:29 pm
“Sure, and your friend Benny Tal shills for the bank, which makes money by writing mortgages. Not only that, but for one of the two banks singled out for writing an inordinate amount of loans to foreign buyers in Vancouver.
https://business.financialpost.com/investing/global-investor/canadian-banks-help-chinese-flout-their-laws-to-get-piece-of-smurfing-billions”
++++++++++++++++
So since the RCMP knows every move “everyone” makes, then it’s probable to deduce they know what is happening in Canada.
So, I have to ask, why is this allowed to happen if they know so much? Are ordered to not do anything except the token sacrificial lamb, along Australia (their police forces), other forces etc? Hiding behind lawyer-speak?
I guess Truedough isn’t getting enough info from the deplorables that he has to “resort to bank info invasion without our knowledge”?
I guess they brought this out to the public since someone was going to rat them out anyway.
They’ve been doing it for 15+ years already. Why come clean now?
Also: https://www.thestar.com/news/investigations/2018/11/01/what-would-it-cost-to-clean-up-albertas-oilpatch-260-billion-a-top-official-warns.html
Hmmmmm.
Methinks it’s all in the plan.
People who control this are doing it on purpose and the rest is a “stage”. No Chinese foreign buyers, no offshore money, it’s all “offshore”-your tax money used against you. Maybe this blog also, as one fellow blogger mentioned; a honey pot.
Maybe Shakespeare was right……”It’s all a stage” with a pre-written script. And not by Dog.
If this doesn’t get published then I’ll know, right?
#38 Ace Goodheart on 11.01.18 at 7:31 pm “Try to prove that in 1978, you lived in your house as a principle residence, and you will start to see the problem.”
About ten years ago, I needed to supplement an application form with proof of residency at a certain address, going far back. I tried getting “proof” from several local bureaucracies, all in vain.
Eventually the federal census bureau, for a fee, provided me with an official document proving proof of residency, at the address in question, at the time in question.
Re: Halfway There
Autonomous brooms are a work in progress, I agree.
Signed off like Freedom would have…welcome back Freedom.
Still living the dream?
Can this housing deleverging ultimately put further downward stress on the TSX which is down a whopping 9% ytd ?
I guess nobody really knows , most market answers I’m learning are usually after the fact . Lots of opinions tho !!
#55 Ace Goodheart
Oh well Ace, there’s always the RCMP.
Hard to believe they did that in ON. Boggles the mind.
Picture caption, “Don’t text and fly!”
#31 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 11.01.18 at 6:59 pm
I was in my 50’s before I “ had it all “. Big house with i/g pool, upscale neighbourhood, 2 vehicles, boat, atv, snowmobile, etc. I always had little or no debt.
Nowadays kids in their 20’s or 30’s have all that I had in my 50’s and good for them. But mostly all done with 2-3% mortgages/helocs. It could be really ugly out there in a year or two. It makes me wonder how high interest rates can go before the debt bomb explodes.
————————————–
An infinitesimally tiny proportion of 20/30-somethings have all that. Negligible.
Where do you come up with this nonsense?
“Swerved to miss the flying pig” was good,
First thing I thought of was “Women drivers”…
#56 TurnerNation on 11.01.18 at 9:07 pm
The persons stating CPP is insurance.
.okay how much I get if I retire or die at age 40? At 50? Goose eggs.
A condo realtor in Toronto told me recently that they are doing only condo leases . No other work available.
————————————————————–
Yep, that’s why the OP compared CPP to insurance, as in a pool of funds that is collected at a certain rate but not necessarily paid out equally to everyone over the same time. Some collect for 30 years, some don’t make it to collect at all… that’s part of the deal…
Condo leases you say? Sharing an average 1 month rent payment as commission – its going to take a lot of those to pay for the A6 lease…
@#64 Ponzi P
“The F-150 is the best selling vehicle in Canada.
120,000 sold in 2017.
136 liters to fill up one of these monsters.
Time to tax them into oblivion.”
++++
Not just Canada. The US as well. The 150 Assembly line is running at 100% , 3 shifts, they keep up with orders for the most popular truck in North America.
Huge, fuel sucking beasts.
I heard an ad the other day for a Dodge truck.”The luxurious Dodge Ram will get you there…..’
“Luxurious”?
When did we expect/demand trucks to be “luxurious” to haul dirt, lumber, furniture….?
Well if the 538 Pollsters have this Nov race locked in….
Prez Trump could have some ‘splainin to do in any investigations they drum up….
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/
I wonder if he ever will release his tax records like every modern President of the past 60 years…
Trump is there for the workin’ man….riiiiiight.
Greaterfools and their votes.
#85 Gramps on 11.02.18 at 7:21 am
I was about to fire back at you for your anti-female comment. Then I remembered that my sole at-fault accident occurred when I backed into the only other car in the parking lot.
F71ON
My early 30’s kids live in Kelowna subdivisions. Most of the people i see in those subdivisions have young kids and are say late 20’s or early to mid 30’s. Seems like most of them have nice vehicles, BMW, Mercedes, Acura suv’s, boats and motorcycles in the driveways. I never had those things when i was that young. It blows my mind every time i go visiting there.
Higher rates will be good for savers and anything that collapses home prices and rents will be good for those who are getting paid to live in the late 1960s.
Garth!
What do you think of using options to hedge against a possible recession? I would love if you did a post on this!
#87 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.02.18 at 8:14 am
When did we expect/demand trucks to be “luxurious” to haul dirt, lumber, furniture….?
————————————————————-
Its been a thing for awhile…
http://vintagepaperads.com/assets/images/AL031.jpg
https://autowise.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/1975-gmc-gentleman-jim-pickup-02-03.jpg
“The solution?
The socialist cause.
Tax the crap out of everyone, loan out tons of money to create price inflation in basic goods (like housing) and couch your taxes in socialist causes.”
This is not the solution, it is the problem and the current reality. This democratic, capitalist- communist PC paradigm must go! It must be replaced by what is good for the nation and its founding peoples and compliant with natural and divine law.
# 52 – Half of you are liberal and want bigger government and new and higher taxes and a million refugees a year to pay for.
What a dream!
@ #3
There will be no tumbling……just a lot of histrionics and stamping of feet by the indebted. They will cry and moan because they can’t go on a sunny vacay this winter but most will find ways to pay back what they owe.
Those who cannot will simply have to forfeit the cottage or toys.
Personal finance 101 should kick in shortly.
#87 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.02.18 at 8:14 am
@#64 Ponzi P
“The F-150 is the best selling vehicle in Canada.
120,000 sold in 2017.
136 liters to fill up one of these monsters.
Time to tax them into oblivion.”
++++
Not just Canada. The US as well. The 150 Assembly line is running at 100% , 3 shifts, they keep up with orders for the most popular truck in North America.
Huge, fuel sucking beasts.
I heard an ad the other day for a Dodge truck.”The luxurious Dodge Ram will get you there…..’
“Luxurious”?
When did we expect/demand trucks to be “luxurious” to haul dirt, lumber, furniture….?
_________
Trucks aren’t nearly as bad as all that. Most of the new ones are made from aluminum, and these things get great mileage for what they are – hence their popularity.
The Boss has a ’17 4×4 4 door F150 3.5 ecoboost with 10 speed auto, gets 25 mpg on the highway.
Buddy has ’17 4×4 ext cab F150 with 3.7 with 10 speed and can get 28 mpg on the highway
Company truck ’15 2wd std cab 3.7 with 6 speed and I get 27 mpg on the 401 when I use it.
Compare that to my old SAAB at 20-21 mpg hwy with a 2.0 motor.
Sure, if you go out and get a 3500HD/F350 with the biggest engine available you are looking at 10-12 mpg – but the truck craze is almost exclusively for half tons.
Also at least out here in tumbleweedville, Trucks are as much a status/commuter vehicle as the gas sucking high end Benz’s are out in the GTA. The hauling they do in most households is confined to Bass Boats, Camper Trailers, ATVs etc… no one is getting their bed dirty unless they have to!
If you think about it – if you have a newer 4 door 4×4 short bed truck that gets mid 20’s on the highway and can tow over 10,000 lbs – you’ve got a vehicle that can do it all – and is still good enough on fuel for the daily grind. This is why they are becoming much nicer overall and more luxurious inside. They’re not just a work vehicle anymore, they are the family car.
Canadians can start this day with a lift in their step and chins held high. In particular if they like shinny.
Within the top 12 teams in NHL standings:
The Peg
Cowtown
Habs
Hogtown
YEG
Crazy Town on the Coast ‘Nucks
“Savard with the spinnerama and a scintillating drive!”
@#93 Remberancer
I never considered the El Camino a “truck” . A station Wagon missing its roof perhaps….but never a “truck”.
If it cant take a payload across a muddy field fuggeddaboutit.
Almost as ugly as the Honda “Ridgeline”…which has a trunk UNDER the box almost as big as the box…..Is it a car? Is it a truck? Who knows? Its just ugly!”
As for the 80’s GMC. Yeah. I remember those.
But they were no where near the Land Yachts we have on the roads today.
The trucks of 30-40 years ago were half the size of the beasts taking up two lanes today.
And gas was a hell of a lot cheaper.
Nope. I’ll drive my paid for 4×4 Toyota Tacoma for another 15-20 years and continue to shake my head at the kids driving leased $50,000 F-150’s through Vancouver city traffic with empty boxes at $1.52/liter gas…..
Yeah, they got it alllll figured out.
One wonders who car/truck the repo man will come for first.
Realtors or out of work house/condo builders…..
Just like the mid 80’s…..what’s old is new again.
Get rid of frivolous debt before the tsunami of interest rates washes everyone away.
@#94 Steven Rowlandson on 11.02.18 at 8:56 am
“The solution?
The socialist cause.
Tax the crap out of everyone, loan out tons of money to create price inflation in basic goods (like housing) and couch your taxes in socialist causes.”
This is not the solution, it is the problem and the current reality. This democratic, capitalist- communist PC paradigm must go! It must be replaced by what is good for the nation and its founding peoples and compliant with natural and divine law.
___________________________
LOL. ‘divine law’? No thanks.
democratic/capatalist/communist paradigm?
@#90 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 11.02.18 at 8:34 am
My early 30’s kids live in Kelowna subdivisions. Most of the people i see in those subdivisions have young kids and are say late 20’s or early to mid 30’s. Seems like most of them have nice vehicles, BMW, Mercedes, Acura suv’s, boats and motorcycles in the driveways. I never had those things when i was that young. It blows my mind every time i go visiting there.
__________________________________
any burger flipper can lease those things these days.
In toronto everyone drives a merc/bmw/audi/f150.
young or old. A lot of $$s out the door for badge value imo
@ #109 Herb
virtue became “a bad thing” when it was weaponized to silence opposition. For instance, you now are a racist if you mention race or colour as a factor in anything, a xenophobe if you raise the impact of foreigners, a homophobe if you fail to support LGBTQ2 issues, anti-American, anti-whoever or unpatriotic if you question whatever the indicated nation, or your own, is doing or has done.
Only red meat conservatives think, or act this way. nd in teh fox news eho chamebr they have convinced themselves that the world is out to get them – where ‘them’ is older white males.
Liberals are more than happy to have rational debates about racism (historic or recent), gay rights (historic or recent) etc. It’s the ‘grab em in the pussy’ conservatives who worry about being labelled misogynts. Perhaps for good reason.
#32 Catalyst on 11.01.18 at 7:10 pm
Our friend Benny Tal thinks 3% may be way too high and I think I agree with him. Inflation data has been largely the same as it has been for the last 5 years with the only difference being Poloz’s unexplained optimism.
I dont understand why they needed to do nothing, even cutting twice in 2016 and now it’s a race to Jam through 10 hikes in 2 years?? Something is up and it wont be our asset values.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
I don’t think we will get to 3% in Canada (I think the economy will roll over before then), but I wouldn’t rule it out. It depends on how much inflation the U.S. generates with its growth, unemployment, and tariffs. I certainly think 2.5% will be hit.
Poloz is a strange beast for sure – the most unpredictable BoC governor that I remember. He cut rates when he shouldn’t have, kept them ultra low for too long & talked about only about downside risks, then abruptly changed course into raising rates relatively quickly (given his previous pessimism). Something happened to him to make him change (maybe the Fed called to warn about currency manipulation…:)
People here keep talking about 3% as though it is so horrible and can never / should never happen (think of the indebted souls!!!). The thing is, rates should NEVER have gone so low. It wasn’t required. QE was the answer to the financial crisis, not ultra low rates (and certainly not for 8 years). The point of lowering rates is to spur economic activity – and should be productive activity (primarily through business investment). But at some point, rates going lower are not going to be a factor in business decision making – “we would go forward with this project if rates were lower” – because the difference between 2% and 1% in the business case is negligible.
Businesses (most) are rational in that way. They pay people a lot of money to manage risks, project costs, etc. The smarter ones would consider ultra low rates a risk (debt, future taxes, sharp reversal, inflation…).
Consumers on the other hand tend not to be so rational. The cheaper the money, the more debt they accumulate, and never consider the future. It leads to asset bubbles (duh!)
So these ultra low rates (I say anything below 2%) didn’t necessarily do much for business investment, but they sure helped to pooch the consumers…
#97 IHCTD9 on 11.02.18 at 9:10 am
Company truck ’15 2wd std cab 3.7 with 6 speed and I get 27 mpg on the 401 when I use it.
Compare that to my old SAAB at 20-21 mpg hwy with a 2.0 motor.
///////////////////////
Must have been something awful wrong with your SAAB.
I had, for a short while, a 1993 9000 CDE Turbo, 2.3 l 200 hp. I could get 37 MPG highway.
But the best part of the story is I had leased it on a one year lease back in 1995 and my payment was under $300/month tax in. 12% lease rate and $1.00 depreciation
#101 KLNR on 11.02.18 at 9:53 am
In toronto everyone drives a merc/bmw/audi/f150.
—
If I have to choose between leasing a Benz and deduct the cost or pay more income tax to finance crazy ideas of politicians to get themselves reelected – the choice is clear.
People kept strictly on payroll don’t have this essential voting tool.
#90 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 11.02.18 at 8:34 am
My early 30’s kids live in Kelowna subdivisions. Most of the people i see in those subdivisions have young kids and are say late 20’s or early to mid 30’s. Seems like most of them have nice vehicles, BMW, Mercedes, Acura suv’s, boats and motorcycles in the driveways. I never had those things when i was that young. It blows my mind every time i go visiting there.
_______
Yep – I see the same all over. IMHO the combination of cheap easy credit/financing, low prices on consumer goods, and sky high low end wages enable the kids to load up with toys if they don’t sink themselves with a mammoth mortgage.
My 16 year old just got his first job working for a caterer making 15.00/hr – I thought that was pretty high wages. But they all split the tips so often he’s over 20.00/hr. That is insane IMHO.
When I was 16 I made 3.25/hr, and gas was about .48/litre. In 2018 my eldest makes 15/hr min and gas is 1.09/litre. Cheap night movies back in the 80’s were 4.50, today it’s 7.00. Back then a decent well used 12+ year old car was 3500.00 – today it’s even less – maybe half that.
You can also go out and take over a 5 yr lease on a 1 year old C series Benz for like 650.00/month. A guy can walk out the door at a YAMAHA dealer with a brand new Grizzly 700 SE for 45.00/wk. A new low end electric Guitar costs LESS in 2018 than the identical one I bought in 1987. Electronics are so cheap you break out laughing when you see the prices. Tools are so unbelievably bloody cheap I am literally ROFLMAO when I see those “80%” off sales and wonder just how much Canadian Tire actually paid for those Chinese Ratchet sets.
The kids have buying power galore these days. If they don’t kill themselves with mortgage debt they’ll have 10X the toys as any generation who has ever lived before them. They got it made in the shade if they want it.
#104 Penny Henny on 11.02.18 at 10:11 am
Must have been something awful wrong with your SAAB.
I had, for a short while, a 1993 9000 CDE Turbo, 2.3 l 200 hp. I could get 37 MPG highway.
But the best part of the story is I had leased it on a one year lease back in 1995 and my payment was under $300/month tax in. 12% lease rate and $1.00 depreciation
______
Hmm, the wife’s 08 Civic with a 1.7, no turbo, way better aero, and less weight struggled to get 37 mpg..
Mine was a ’99 9-3 SE turbo 205hp, nothing wrong with it. No one who has ever owned one of these things ever accused them of getting great mileage. I worked the mileage out regularly via refill pump litres and calculator multiple times over 5 years of ownership – always the same (crap).
There’s basically no way that 9000 brick got anywhere near 37 MPG. It’s rated from the factory at 17 City/25 hwy. I also checked Fuelly.com for real world reports by owners, and the range was 16-28 mpg, with 75% or respondents getting between 19-22 over hundreds of fill ups.
You either did the math wrong, are getting vehicles mixed up, or had the most fuel efficient turbocharged SAAB ever produced.
A neutral rate of 3% will have rate-reset preferreds paying a tidy sum in a few years. Hopefully we get there and it holds.
#102 -=jwk=- on 11.02.18 at 9:57 am
@ #109 Herb
virtue became “a bad thing” when it was weaponized to silence opposition. For instance, you now are a racist if you mention race or colour as a factor in anything, a xenophobe if you raise the impact of foreigners, a homophobe if you fail to support LGBTQ2 issues, anti-American, anti-whoever or unpatriotic if you question whatever the indicated nation, or your own, is doing or has done.
Only red meat conservatives think, or act this way. nd in teh fox news eho chamebr they have convinced themselves that the world is out to get them – where ‘them’ is older white males.
Liberals are more than happy to have rational debates about racism (historic or recent), gay rights (historic or recent) etc. It’s the ‘grab em in the pussy’ conservatives who worry about being labelled misogynts. Perhaps for good reason.
____
Sounds to me more like you are an equal distance from the center as Herb – just in the other direction.
If you were reasonable, you’d admit that the left also has a bin full of red meat loonies in their camp- equal in size to that possessed by the right – that absolutely do not engage in rational debate.
An intellectually honest individual MUST concede that there are twits on both sides of the political fence.
Said twits are easy to identify as they are the ones claiming the only idiots in the room are those on the other side of the aisle..
#69 For those about to flop… on 11.01.18 at 10:33 pm
Less than assessed.
3937 w 37th ave,Vancouver.
Originally asking 3.69
Just sold for 3.30
Assessment 4.76
=================
Whoever bought this property will cry in less than a year. This little ordinary house for $3.3mil? It should be less than $1mil at best.
good things come to those who wait, wipe that thought, let it go
#107 IHCTD9 on 11.02.18 at 10:49 am
#104 Penny Henny on 11.02.18 at 10:11 am
You either did the math wrong, are getting vehicles mixed up, or had the most fuel efficient turbocharged SAAB ever produced.
==================
Right on. There is no way ’93 SAAB 9000 can get 37MPG. Maybe his calculation really is for ‘KPG (Killometers per gallon)’ or he is just confused that km=mile.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-lenders-to-seize-13-fortress-real-estate-projects/
The size of the car is inversely related to the brain of the owner.
A new F-150 can set you back 82 k.
And it’s still just a truck.
Kids need a ladder to get in.
#107 IHCTD9 on 11.02.18 at 10:49 am
#104 Penny Henny on 11.02.18 at 10:11 am
Must have been something awful wrong with your SAAB.
I had, for a short while, a 1993 9000 CDE Turbo, 2.3 l 200 hp. I could get 37 MPG highway.
But the best part of the story is I had leased it on a one year lease back in 1995 and my payment was under $300/month tax in. 12% lease rate and $1.00 depreciation
______
Hmm, the wife’s 08 Civic with a 1.7, no turbo, way better aero, and less weight struggled to get 37 mpg..
Mine was a ’99 9-3 SE turbo 205hp, nothing wrong with it. No one who has ever owned one of these things ever accused them of getting great mileage. I worked the mileage out regularly via refill pump litres and calculator multiple times over 5 years of ownership – always the same (crap).
There’s basically no way that 9000 brick got anywhere near 37 MPG. It’s rated from the factory at 17 City/25 hwy. I also checked Fuelly.com for real world reports by owners, and the range was 16-28 mpg, with 75% or respondents getting between 19-22 over hundreds of fill ups.
You either did the math wrong, are getting vehicles mixed up, or had the most fuel efficient turbocharged SAAB ever produced.
///////////////////////
100km/hr, feather the gas and it could be done. Not that I always drove like this. I think you are using U.S. gallon instead of Imperial. I used to sell them they were really not at all heavy on gas consumption.
Sad hearing vehicle owners cherry-picking fuel economy values. An F150 uses 13-17 litres/100km, not 9.
The only way to calculate fuel economy is to divide actual litres at fill-up by actual trip km (over many tanks).
“My buddy can get 25mpg on the hwy” is a totally dishonest way to rate fuel economy. Add to this the 6-9X higher emissions than a passenger car …
#14 Heloguy
Smaller numbers than YYZ,YVR but still pertinent examples.
——————————————————————–
Wow. Smaller numbers, I’ll say.
Those prices are just about what the buyers of the house I just sold as POA for my old mom are gonna pay in land transfer tax!
Sheesh!
Time to cash in the chips, move to New Brunny, and live like a king for practically free!
Caption suggestion for today’s pic: a boomer working the striptease pole to make ends meet.
#112 Duke on 11.02.18 at 11:13 am
#107 IHCTD9 on 11.02.18 at 10:49 am
#104 Penny Henny on 11.02.18 at 10:11 am
You either did the math wrong, are getting vehicles mixed up, or had the most fuel efficient turbocharged SAAB ever produced.
==================
Right on. There is no way ’93 SAAB 9000 can get 37MPG. Maybe his calculation really is for ‘KPG (Killometers per gallon)’ or he is just confused that km=mile.
////////////////////
here is another SAAB driver discussing on google groups
“My ’95
Aero gets 25-28 mpg (U.S. measurement) in “mixed” driving–including mostly
suburban (60-70 mph constant) and some stop-and-go city miles. If I go a
constant 60 mpg, a very difficult proposition in this car, I can get ~35 mpg
or more depending on conditions.”
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!topic/alt.autos.saab/thRZEJNbg_M
#31 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 11.01.18 at 6:59 pm
I was in my 50’s before I “ had it all “. Big house with i/g pool, upscale neighbourhood, 2 vehicles, boat, atv, snowmobile, etc. I always had little or no debt.
Nowadays kids in their 20’s or 30’s have all that I had in my 50’s and good for them. But mostly all done with 2-3%
—————————————————————–
As someone in their 20′ almost 30’s and having friends in Calgary and Ontario I do not know a single one of them that has all these things. Maybe one of them but not all like that.
#115 Penny Henny on 11.02.18 at 11:23 am
100km/hr, feather the gas and it could be done. Not that I always drove like this. I think you are using U.S. gallon instead of Imperial. I used to sell them they were really not at all heavy on gas consumption.
____
There does seem to be a big gap in mileage claims (I saw this when I was researching the car before I bought one), so maybe there are some factory freaks out there.
The other thing I discovered at the time was that in the US you can get zero ethanol gasoline, and this resulted in about 10% better mileage compared to the stuff we have up here – especially compared to our winter blends.
So I suppose if a guy were to hyper-mile the thing in perfect conditions on flat ground with a tailwind it might do 37 mpg (IMP) once, but there was no chance my old 9-3 would even get 30 mpg ( I did figure using USG ) – no way, no how.
#114 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.02.18 at 11:22 am
The size of the car is inversely related to the brain of the owner.
A new F-150 can set you back 82 k.
And it’s still just a truck.
Kids need a ladder to get in.
____
Those 82K F150’s have power backlit side steps that pop out when you open the door to help with that :).
What do you get for your 82K when you buy a Benz? You get a car with a trunk and the hope that other drivers on the road think you’ve arrived.
…and in a lot of cases, the Benz will get worse mileage than the big truck (C63 AMG **cough**).
Did not mean to be anti-feminine,
For this blog I probably should of said
“Moister drivers” :)
Stocks fall as tech declines hit indices
Emily McCormick
Yahoo FinanceNovember 2, 2018, 11:15 a.m. CDT
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-futures-rise-following-strong-october-jobs-report-124339092.html
@#40Ustabe
Loved your description of your holiday. We would love to do that. I’ve never heard of the Redcoat Trail.
Will have to check it out. Sounds fabulous. The kids can use the cottage for the summer and we’ll explore Canada! YEAH! – a change! We might even get all the way from BC to PEI. Perhaps Garth will be “at home” !
Redcoat Trail is the route the RCMP took when they came out west to Fort Walsh to protect the area from US whiskey traders and those intent on doing in Sitting Bull after he retreated to the Cypress Hills area after the Custer thing.
Banging around the Souris River Valley, going through Ontario the “wrong” way, man did we meet folks…a surprising number of them US citizens, up here, marveling at our country, its beauty and people.
When we pulled into Lunenberg Garth actually was home…in fact his evening constitutional took him, his lovely and gracious wife Dorothy and his bad ass dog Bandit right past the Lunenberg community campground. I couldn’t believe my eyes!
Garth emanates a calm, stoic solidness. I tried to not be a fan boy seeing as I’m in my 70’s and all…I wonder if I succeeded.
Anyway, a slow, zig zag trip across Canada and back is heartily recommended. I’d do it again in a heartbeat but there still is the Alaska highway and the Pacific coast to do and I may run out of go go years anytime now so…you do it and report back.
@ #60 Steve, that was an awesome post. I think I will copy it and save it. Thanks for sharing your experience. You came by your wisdom the hard way. Let’s hope someone reads it and benefits from it.
#114 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.02.18 at 11:22 am
The size of the car is inversely related to the brain of the owner.
A new F-150 can set you back 82 k.
And it’s still just a truck.
Kids need a ladder to get in.
—
Climbing the ladder is a good skill to perfect from early childhood. It will serve them well for the rest of their life.
They can reach their own Mercedes faster than climbing into the back of a Toyota Corolla (?).
About the picture…
“Seen on Learmouth Road in Coldstream, BC,” says blog dog Barb, who snapped it. “A metaphor for all manner of captions…*grin*…”
Suggestions welcome.
—
The caption could not be more obvious:
#ItWasHerTurn
Rate Reset Preferred Shares – Prices and Yields
#108 David on 11.02.18 at 10:58 am
A neutral rate of 3% will have rate-reset preferreds paying a tidy sum in a few years. Hopefully we get there and it holds.
******************************
Absolutely. If the Bank of Canada Overnight target rises to 3.0% and if the 5 year Canada bond maintains its current spread of 0.69% then it will be at 3.69%. Reset spreads vary quite a bit depending when they were issued but a recent RBC one has a reset spread of 2.38%. It would, under our scenario here, reset to 6.07%.
In some cases though the reset date is close to five years away. In other cases it is imminent. Ideal might be a reset date about a year from now.
Do not expect any of the rate resets to go much above $25 ever because the issuer can redeem at $25 on the reset dates. Some but not all of those that are well under $25 will move back towards $25. Some of the lower ones though suffer from a low reset spread and will likely never again see $25. Some of the low ones are down there due to their credit risk deteriorating and some of those could recover.
#114 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.02.18 at 11:22 am
——————————————————
Pfftt, well pony up for the platinum cheapskate, the running boards slide in and out when the door is open/closed.
#93 Remembrancer on 11.02.18 at 8:56 am
Its been a thing for awhile…
https://autowise.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/1975-gmc-gentleman-jim-pickup-02-03.jpg
—————————
Back in ’90, I drove a Scotsdale of that body style 3600 miles in six days. Seat all the way back and arms bent like a praying mantis.
Two door truck, never again.
#101 KLNR on 11.02.18 at 9:53 am
any burger flipper can lease those things these days.
In toronto everyone drives a merc/bmw/audi/f150.
young or old. A lot of $$s out the door for badge value imo
________
I laugh at the “marque” wars in the GTA. I use quotes there because so much of the auto industry is Global with all kinds of makes built on the same chassis.
I bet the guy cruising along in his new MB E class would be real pissed if I asked him how he liked his new Chrysler 300. Sorry guy, that’s what you’re driving.
How about complimenting buddy on his new ML class by asking him how he likes his Jeep?
Not to mention (like you said) just about everyone knows you can lease just about any of these German sleds for under 1500.00/mo.
#120 IHCTD9 on 11.02.18 at 12:39 pm
#115 Penny Henny on 11.02.18 at 11:23 am
100km/hr, feather the gas and it could be done. Not that I always drove like this. I think you are using U.S. gallon instead of Imperial. I used to sell them they were really not at all heavy on gas consumption.
____
There does seem to be a big gap in mileage claims (I saw this when I was researching the car before I bought one), so maybe there are some factory freaks out there.
The other thing I discovered at the time was that in the US you can get zero ethanol gasoline, and this resulted in about 10% better mileage compared to the stuff we have up here – especially compared to our winter blends.
//////////////////////
Speaking of gas (no, not that gas Fartzy)
The other day I filled up at 115.9 for regular and I happened to look over at the price of the 91 octane.
140.9 OMFG!!
25 cents a litre more. What a rip off!
In the States it is probably 25 cents a gallon more
#127 Ubul on 11.02.18 at 1:28 pm
About the picture…
“Seen on Learmouth Road in Coldstream, BC,” says blog dog Barb, who snapped it. “A metaphor for all manner of captions…*grin*…”
Suggestions welcome.
—
The caption could not be more obvious:
#ItWasHerTurn
////////////
Took me a second but I got it.
Poor Hillary
Guy in Calgary on 11
Lol was going to post the same thing.
I’m 35. None of my friends have all three of those. What the heck is that poster talking about?
MF
Judging by this comment section I’ll be able to get a hell of a discount on a motorcycle soon.
Canada should be afraid of this indicator now flashing red, Goldman says
Bloomberg News Michelle Jamrisko
August 27, 2018 7:41 AM EDT
Filed under:
Investing
https://business.financialpost.com/investing/canada-should-be-afraid-of-this-indicator-flashing-red-goldman-says
will those ads come up here
Tuesday, October 30, 2018
United States Alleges Florida Law Firm Discriminated Against Hispanic Homeowners With A Predatory Loan Modification And Foreclosure Rescue Services Team
According to the Complaint allegations, from 2009 through at least 2015, the Defendants deliberately targeted the Complainants and other homeowners with an unfair and predatory loan modification and foreclosure rescue services scheme because of their Hispanic national origin. During this time period, the Defendants purposefully targeted Hispanic homeowners with Spanish-language advertising that falsely promised to cut their mortgage payments in half. In client meetings, the Defendants promised lower payments in a short timeframe in exchange for thousands of dollars of upfront fees and additional, continuing monthly fees. The Defendants also instructed their clients to stop making monthly mortgage payments and to stop communicating with their lenders, placing their clients’ homes at risk of foreclosure. Additionally, the Defendants sent to the Complainants a package of documents, written in English, that were sent to the bank on their behalf, but provided no translation of the documents. These documents contained untrue statements, including an offer to the bank to return the Complainants’ homes in exchange for a rescission of the mortgage without the Complainants’ consent to do so. Despite charging high fees, the Defendants did little or nothing actually to obtain loan modifications.
https://www.justice.gov/usao-mdfl/pr/united-states-alleges-florida-law-firm-discriminated-against-hispanic-homeowners
———-
Michael Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. equity strategist, said he believes the market is undergoing a “rolling bear market.”
#130 Wrk.dover on 11.02.18 at 1:51 pm
#93 Remembrancer on 11.02.18 at 8:56 am
Its been a thing for awhile…
https://autowise.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/1975-gmc-gentleman-jim-pickup-02-03.jpg
—————————
Back in ’90, I drove a Scotsdale of that body style 3600 miles in six days. Seat all the way back and arms bent like a praying mantis.
Two door truck, never again.
——
Heh, we had a ‘73, those things had like, a “too long” steering column or something (I’m 6’-3”). No room.
Bench seat and skinny steering wheel sucked too.
@#130 Wrk.dver
“Back in ’90, I drove a Scotsdale of that body style 3600 miles in six days”
++++
Calgary to Halifax?
This post gave me goosebumps.
#88 crowdedelevatorfartz…”Trump is there for the workin’ man….riiiiiight. Greaterfools and their votes.”
Monster US Jobs Report
250,000 Jobs
32,000 manufacturing
30,000 construction
5,000 mining
24,800 transportation & warehousing
Wages soaring 3.1%
And a President who donates his salary and has lost several hundred million in net worth since taking office…..
Ohhh and you keep following Mr 538- Nate Silver….he totally nailed it in 2016……
Re: #141 Deplorable Dude on 11.02.18 at 4:39 pm
Totally fabricated data before the midterms. I’m hoping the democrats come up big and impeach Trump.
#131 IHCTD9 on 11.02.18 at 1:57 pm
#101 KLNR on 11.02.18 at 9:53 am
any burger flipper can lease those things these days.
In toronto everyone drives a merc/bmw/audi/f150.
young or old. A lot of $$s out the door for badge value imo
________
I laugh at the “marque” wars in the GTA. I use quotes there because so much of the auto industry is Global with all kinds of makes built on the same chassis.
I bet the guy cruising along in his new MB E class would be real pissed if I asked him how he liked his new Chrysler 300. Sorry guy, that’s what you’re driving.
How about complimenting buddy on his new ML class by asking him how he likes his Jeep?
Not to mention (like you said) just about everyone knows you can lease just about any of these German sleds for under 1500.00/mo.
—————————————————————-
Nope. The 300 used an old E class platform. That was the genius idea behind that merger. Amortize platform costs and production facilities across 2 brands with a 1 model cycle delay.
@#141
Deplorable Dud
“Ohhh and you keep following Mr 538- Nate Silver….he totally nailed it in 2016……”
++++
Gee Trump wouldn’t be in power to make himself richer now would he? Naah never happen.
As for 538 predictions on 2016 results.
I’d say the last minute FBI investigation into Hillary’s Blackberry faux pas that found nothing of consequence might have tipped the scales?
But its all heresay.
We’ll talk next week after the results pour in….. :)
For your entertainment….
https://www.realestate.com.au/news/were-heartbroken-home-in-same-family-for-93-years-passes-in/