Mr. Bubbles

A few days ago, when spewing about slagging markets, I also slagged a Houston-based financial dude and columnist for the august American publication, Forbes. In suggestig that Chicken Little, doomster, we’re-all-gonna-die, gonzo apocalyptic journalism is not worth following (and, so far, wrong) I held up a column by Jesse Colombo written in 2014. It warned of a “devastating crash” in the stock market – which has since risen about 40%.

Jesse wrote:

“Following the bull market pattern of the past five years, the U.S. stock market continues to climb to new highs while shaking off all reasons for pessimism as well as the warnings of skeptics. Stock market bulls are becoming increasingly brazen as they drive the market to nosebleed heights, which is convincing a greater number of people into believing in the economic recovery. Unfortunately, the public is being fooled because the U.S. stock market and economy is experiencing another classic central bank-driven bubble that will end in a calamity, erasing of trillions dollars of wealth.”

Turns out Jesse is a permabull who’s made bubbles into a growth industry. For a decade he’s been hammering away at warning people about an economic and financial market smoky hole which has yet to materialize. It seemed reasonable to recall his failed words when arguing on this pathetic blog with all the deplorable doomers who show up with their guns, flashlights, Cottonelle, MAGA hats and cans of tuna. Besides, he’s in Texas. Some big Forbes guy. What would he care about GreaterFool?

But, apparently, he reads this blog. Oops.

“This is Jesse Colombo, the “high-falutin’ financial analyst” you recently wrote about and criticized on your blog,” he says. “I tried to post my rebuttal in your comments section of that blog post, but it wouldn’t let me. Please publish my rebuttal in the name of fairness…”

  Of course. In fact, Jesse – who has that American jock rockstar Alpha Dog look about him – and I seem to share some common ground when it comes to waving a yellow flag in the face of fools who keep buying stuff just because everybody else is buying stuff.

Here is what he wants you to know about the scary, debt-fueled, gossamer world in which we live.

“You completely ignored the specific conditions that I said would pop the bubble,” he argues. “Rising interest rates. As I wrote in that article you quoted…

Scenario #1: After several more years of the bubble-driven economic recovery, the Fed has a “Mission Accomplished” moment and eventually increases the Fed Funds rate (after it ends its QE3 program this year), which pops the post-2009 bubbles that were created by simulative monetary conditions in the first place. Rising interest rates are what ended the 2003-7 bubble, which led to the Global Financial Crisis.

“Come on, Garth – an article headline is not a prediction. I listed specific conditions that would cause the bubble to pop in the content of the article. It’s not fair for you to ignore that and distill my entire argument from a headline.

“I explained that this bubble would continue to inflate and grow even riskier as long as interest rates remained at extremely low levels, which is exactly what has happened. I said that the bubbles would finally burst when interest rates rise to a high enough level, which is only starting to happen recently. People are mistaken if they think I was “calling the top” back then.

“I was carrying out my mission – to give early alerts for dangerous bubbles.”

Here’s the interesting part, considering this is a blog that has long warned little beavers not to throw most of their net worth into a single inflated housing asset, since it would inevitably correct. Just as warning about the US real estate bubble years before it blew would have been useful, Jesse says he’s doing the same now about the unsustainable path the Trump-goosed US economic recovery is on.

Calling out a bubble is best before it's a bubble. Duh.

This is not true growth, he says, but the illusion of it – bubbles in housing, tech, stocks, bonds “and U.S. exports to countries that are experiencing bubbles of their own (Canada, China, and emerging markets).”

“It is stressful and challenging enough to be living in a world that has so many dangerous bubbles, but even worse that our fellow man makes it unnecessarily difficult to actually warn about them and prevent the damage they cause. Despite these hurdles that I see in front of me, I intend to do my best to keep warning about bubbles in hope that humanity will finally advance beyond this era of artificial economic booms and subsequent crises.”

Hmm. So I empathize with J. After all, it’s easier for a man who makes his money from investing others’ assets to fudge risks and kibitz clients. The world is full of people who lie. If he truly sees systemic risks, he’s right to call them out. He may be correct, maybe not. So far, pfft. But that’s not distant from what the canine-addicted host of this blog is all about. I’ve spent the last few years telling people they may regret throwing everything they have at one asset and taking on epic debt to do so.

Stocks & bonds bubble or real estate bubble. How are you supposed to deal with this stuff? Should you listen to the warnings and heed, or go with the crowd and chase gains?

The answer will only be clear in the rearview. Meanwhile the best way forward is a common sense one. Buy a house if you need it and can afford it without being buried in debt or blowing all your wealth. Invest in a portfolio that holds safe things as well as growth assets – balanced, diversified and liquid. Have a Plan B. Ignore the extremes. Listen to your gut. Be aggressively conservative.

Be fair.

113 comments ↓

#1 Sideshow Rob on 10.31.18 at 5:12 pm

Even though the stock markets bounced nicely this dead cat is still a fail. The dow couldn’t finish above the 200 day moving average. The bottom is not in yet. I’m betting the fang bang resumes tomorrow.

The Dow is back being positive for the year and has a 12-month return of 10%. This must kill you. – Garth

#2 Parksville Prankster on 10.31.18 at 5:18 pm

… I read today’s post four times… not sure if it’s a retraction, an apology, or a confirmation (maybe a little of each?). Perhaps a fifth read is in order.

Then I have succeeded. – Garth

#3 Jonah on 10.31.18 at 5:19 pm

First !?

#4 Steerage Bubble Boy on 10.31.18 at 5:20 pm

Bubble boys are over-rated.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_SULQSL4Cd0

#5 Linda on 10.31.18 at 5:45 pm

Bubble trouble! The problem with media headlines is sorting through all the hype & finding out whether 1) there really, truly IS a bubble & 2) bailing before that bubble bursts.

Bubble or not, the bottom line for many is whether they can continue to stay afloat as interest rate hikes continue.

#6 baloney Sandwitch on 10.31.18 at 5:53 pm

the Buddha describes the Noble Path as the middle way of moderation, between the extremes of greedy indulgence and self denying mortification. He sayeth: Dogs, these two extremes ought not to be practiced by one who seeks a path to financial freedom.

#7 Lead Paint on 10.31.18 at 5:57 pm

Perhaps I missed it, but I’m surprised no one is railing against this announcement of a new department of gender equality:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-budget-bill-includes-pay-equity-law-creates-new-department-for-women/

A noble goal, but forcing small and large businesses to submit plans and stats to get to gender parity in pay, and to hire bureaucrats to to review and penalize via these hundred of thousands of reports annually seems like a terrible idea. Terrible. How does this help Canadian companies compete globally? Innovate?

Not to mention there is no valid proof that women get paid less then men for equal work.

#8 Darts on 10.31.18 at 5:58 pm

Believe Jesse might have been one of the original users of the term “everything bubble”. But if hypothetically, bonds, stocks, and housing were all go down together, cash would be king in the short term but could having a few pet rocks (gold and silver) be a good investment?

#9 Debtslavecreator on 10.31.18 at 5:58 pm

While it is possible to see a 20% -25% drop in major US stock averages, it remains much more probable that US stocks continue their major upward long term trend for some time yet
Watch the FXE/ euro and bonds / yields
Much more likely we see a confusing and wild upside move in us stocks into 2021-2023 even IF we see a quick drop of 20-25% first that would ideally bottom in 2020
When the markets drop by about 20-25 and / or recession comes this time it will be most secondary CBs printing money like mad including Canada
We are still nowhere near a major long term peak in US Stocks just yet
It’s coming
But we’ll see DOW 38-40 k, 10 yr US yields of at least 4.25 and a CAD at .55-.60 with 5 year mortgages around 5 % in Canada before the wheels come off
Much more likely than a long term peak and horrible bear market , and the level of bearishness among the average retail investor is extreme , so this also suggests a market rise long term is much more likely than a major collapse

#10 Guy in Calgary on 10.31.18 at 6:18 pm

I have dealt with a lot of retail investors in branch land. A fair number wanted to ditch fixed income completely during the run up. They no longer wish to do this, now it’s the opposite.

This is why so many DIY’s fail. I also think that many people think they have a higher risk tolerance then they actually do.

#11 Ace Goodheart on 10.31.18 at 6:30 pm

Been watching videos as to what the Chinese have been up to, investment wise.

In Canada people have been buying houses and condos “investments” and then rent them out (often at a loss) in hope of future financial gain through endless upward price movements.

In China they kind of do it a little more intense.

The Chinese build “investment cities”.

Yes, entire cities, full of houses and condos that are owned by people who will never live in them. Giant shopping malls that will never see a customer or open a store.

Massive boulevards and highways that no car or truck will ever drive on.

Google “Chinese Ghost Cities”

It will blow your mind.

A lot of the world’s growth has gone into building these things.

#12 Dolce Vita on 10.31.18 at 6:34 pm

Many can explain what a bubble is about and that it will eventually burst. The question they rarely get correct or offer to answer precisely is:

When?

Michael Burry predicted when in 2005, 2 years in advance and even 2007 was his earliest year prediction for when the US RE bubble would burst.

The problem of prediction here is, and always will be, human psychology.

Something not easily captured in Excel and embellished with red circles, arrows and anything else you can think of.

Just look at 416 RE sales in 2017 and YVR RE sales in 2018 – both went from pandemonium to silence in a matter of a few MONTHS.

As if some yet to be identified Jungian collective subconscious event triggered an immediate off switch in those RE markets.

It’s in the WHEN. And there’s the rub.

Ray Dalio reckons the current US debt cycle will burst 2 years from now and he is using his dissection of 48 prior debt cycles as evidence.

Maybe the next Burry? Who knows. We’ll just have to wait and see, as always.

Continued caution is fine then again, there is the boy who cried wolf one too many times and lost investment opportunities in between whilst waiting for bubble Armageddon which never seems to come until you least expect it to.

#13 SaraJ on 10.31.18 at 6:42 pm

Nothing wrong in chasing bubbles in highly liquid markets as they can be amazing money makers, as long as you are able to recognize when a bubble has popped.

#14 O Cannabis! on 10.31.18 at 6:56 pm

Don’t matter either way, just Chillaz Dudes!!!!!

HAPPY HALLOWEED EVERBUDDY :) :) :)

Oh man, I am so cravin’ some junk food – better hit the streets before the little monsters take it all!!!

#15 Deplorable Dude on 10.31.18 at 6:58 pm

A small preview of the impending Red wave next week in the US.

Florida early voting.

2016…..Republicans trailed Dems by 96,400 votes in early voting…..and still won the State.

2018…..Republicans currently 64,000 votes ahead….

#16 Dolce Vita on 10.31.18 at 7:06 pm

#7 Lead Paint

No one railing since most Canadians are by now used to yet another Cum By Ya moment from the save Gaia’s trees, bees, snails, whales College Kids running the country.

If you believe Jordan Peterson and the irrefutable studies from the World of Shrink, this latest gender equality effort is utter hogwash. They already tried it in Social Engineering Central (a.k.a. Sweden) and it failed.

Apparently, according to the World of Shrink, Men really are from Mars and Women from Venus.

As for the rest in between/undecided, from Planet Claire (it has pink air).

Having said that, I hear you #7 Lead Paint and defer to yet another eye roll about the latest from Prime Minister Michael Row the Boat Ashore, Hallelujah, et. al.

#17 Frank The Tank on 10.31.18 at 7:18 pm

If only people were as preoccupied with being healthy and fostering their personal relationships as they are with their portfolios, we’d be a lot happier as a society.

#18 Danny on 10.31.18 at 7:23 pm

What has happened to the American Republican Party that historical feared debt?

Have they been so afraid of going against “bankruptcy Trump “…that they are now taking a new approach so that they can blame the Democrats for definitely a debt problem coming about in the near future?

I am surprised that Howdy Doody smiling face tricky phantom Toronto Mayor Doug Ford doesn’t talk about the high soaring American debt that the once upon a time Democrat Trump has brought about? Interesting that two guys….both conservative….not agreeing on fiscal approach to government debt.

Only Doug or Donald can be right…not both.

Guess we need to wait for the “ides of March “….2020…to see what goes down first the stock market or the American Government fiscal bankruptcy disaster thanks to debt driving Trump?

Trump bankrupted companies to avoid paying taxes….what is such an unsustainable government debt going to do to America?

Is this what Russian Putin is talking about when he states that Trump has succeeded in making America a super power….no longer?

Low interest for too long has caused both a private and public sector debt ….that is so large that it just can’t continue to grow without hurting a large number of people in North America….for a long time.

The question is can we learn to spend less and simplify our life style and stop and smell the roses instead of shopping like mad people.

That will require a more general acceptance that renting is not just for the lower class….and not a shameful existing which too many Canadians seem to think!

In Rome most people rent and enjoy evening walks and cafés.

#19 Al on 10.31.18 at 7:29 pm

“I explained that this bubble would continue to inflate and grow even riskier as long as interest rates remained at extremely low levels, which is exactly what has happened. I said that the bubbles would finally burst when interest rates rise to a high enough level, which is only starting to happen recently.”

So the bubble (“hot economy”) will burst (slow the growth) when the rising interests rates eventually have their intended effect? I can’t tell you when though, but it will happen. Thank you Capt. O. Keep spreading the warnings, theyre very practical lol

#20 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 10.31.18 at 7:32 pm

There are no bubbles when money is almost free. Anyone can afford a million dollar house and a new suv.

#21 For those about to flop... on 10.31.18 at 7:38 pm

Isn’t it a pity when you have to move to a different city…

M44BC

“Find Out Which City is Adding the Most Jobs in Your State.

The years of the jobless recovery are long gone as the national unemployment rate now sits below 4%, and some cities are seeing extremely high rates of job growth coupled with strong wage gains. But is this situation sustainable? As Isaac Newton might say, “What goes up must come down.”

We analyzed changes in employment figures between 2013 and 2018 from the 381 metropolitan areas defined by the U.S. Census Bureau. We started by mapping a vertical spike indicating the relative percentage of job growth change in the best city from each state. Then we outlined the geographic region of each metro area, color-coding each one according to a sliding scale of median household income from under $50k to over $65k. The result is an intuitive map showing the best places for job seekers combined with how much money a household might expect to make.

These are the top ten job markets in terms of employment change from 2013 to 2018, together with the median household income for each metro area.

1. Lake Charles, LA: 28.3% and $52,314

2. Bend-Redmond, OR: 26.6% and $66,273

3. Elkhart, IN: 24.0% and $58,960

4. St. George, UT: 23.4% and $54,842

5. Greeley, CO: 21.1% and $68,884

6. Gainesville, GA: 20.9% and $61,977

7. Fayetteville, AR: 20% and $56,038

8. Boise City, ID: 18.6% and $55,324

9. Austin, TX: 18.4% and $73,800

10. Reno, NV: 18.0% and $61,360

We can learn a lot about the American economy and the job market by looking at our map. The broader context is that unemployment is at its lowest rate since 1969 even if wage growthhasn’t necessarily spiked. That means the places on our map are truly remarkable job markets at the center of the recovery, perhaps because they were hardest hit by the recession. Consider Elkhart, IN for example, an area that’s seen tremendous job growth of 24.0% but where wage growth is still less than $60k. The town is known for being the “RV Capital of the World” because it has several major RV manufacturers and suppliers. That means blue collar work with low wages. Workers just can’t compete for significantly higher earnings because manufactures can just move jobs overseas, something President Trump is looking to improve.

There are other places seeing substantial gains in employment thanks to a thriving and well diversified economy. Consider Austin, Charlottesville and Nashville. These cities have a reputation as fun destinations with music and tech scenes. They are mid-sized cities with universities, hospitals, and large well-known employers. These are the ingredients for long-term economic growth and positive employment numbers, as our map clearly indicates.

Another story hiding in this map of thriving job markets is the number of places seeing substand growth. Two places actually saw negative job growth from 2013 – 2018, Cheyenne, WY and Anchorage, AK. The people in Burlington, VT meanwhile only saw 0.8% growth, and even in New York City the change was just +5.3%. These are the best metro areas for job growth during a time when the unemployment rate fell across the nation from 7.2% down to 3.7%, a rate that many observers believe indicates full employment. The results are disappointing to say the least.

There is therefore significant diversity across the cities on our map. Some places are factory towns with unsustainable growth rates. Others are truly remarkable places to live with thriving, growth-oriented economies, and still others are barely seeing any benefits from the economic recovery.

31 October 2018

Visualization

https://howmuch.net/articles/cities-adding-the-most-jobs

#22 Dolce Vita on 10.31.18 at 7:41 pm

#18 Danny

You are correct about Rome and renting.

The difference though Danny, is that in Rome there is actually something to see during that evening walk and as for the cafés, their espresso and food are not bad at all.

The latter true if you look at how tourists drink and eat like there is no tomorrow.

Poor things, I guess they know they will be going back home the next day….to Toronto (could not resist).

And yes Garth, that’s it from me tonight.

Buonanotte.

#23 tccontrarian on 10.31.18 at 7:43 pm

“The answer will only be clear in the rearview. …

…Be fair.” – GT
———————————

Does this mean you’ve reconsidered some lesser known facts I’ve posted (and thus the validity of my some claims) and the ‘ban’ is lifted?

If this entry appears, we’ll all know…

TCC

#24 espressobob on 10.31.18 at 7:50 pm

Marc Faber, Peter Schiff, Jim Rogers etc. Sorry dudes but the gold standard got cancelled decades ago.

Still, some jump on the bandwagon of doom. Its attractive for some reason? More like a river of verbal manure that flows freely and attracts likeminded individuals into a cult of BS. Commodities are what they is and valued in legal tender.

When corporations that generate earnings and enjoy growth start circling the drain, that might be grounds for concern. Don’t see that happening anytime soon.

And yes, some of these visionaries have paysites. Go figure.

#25 Funky on 10.31.18 at 7:51 pm

Common cents. Thanks.

#26 For those about to flop... on 10.31.18 at 7:55 pm

Race to a million.

This bulldozer just hit the market priced to go straight away,no mucking around.

The listing is on for 1.04 and the assessment comes in at 1.46 and it states that the house is not salvageable and so a date with a bulldozer awaits.

If we guess 100k to get rid of the structure and someone does a bit of haggling then they could have a cleared block for 1.10.

Cheap compared to 2016 but we have seen several go in the 900’s a couple in the 800’s and one in the 700’s

You can get a cleared block on Miller st for less than 1.2 and tell the bulldozer driver to have the day off.

So many it’s on 28% less than assessed at the bottom of the market and this will probably surprise a few people.

Stop being a Dundas…

M44BC

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/3433-dundas-street

#27 Howard on 10.31.18 at 8:10 pm

The federal government is ensuring condos will be profitable forever.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-immigration-increase-350000-1.4886546

#28 mogulrider on 10.31.18 at 8:24 pm

This bubble has nothing to do with the bubbles discussed. Prices are growing ebcuase the economies are growing and the tax effects of the LEft in power are reversing.

People have more liquid cpaital to deploy. Down here inte h uS the economy is screaming like never before becuase private capital has been liberated.

Capital is fleeing Canada due to Trudeau’s marxist economic strategy of monster government.

It also has to do with the move from Public to Private investment cycles.

Sovereign debt crisis is your bubble. Capital is moving to the private sector – i.e. stocks…

When your currency in Canada is worth less than a mexican burrito with flies on it – much will become clear.

As interest rates rise you are focusing on the individual. That is the small part of the problem

Its government debt crisis that one should be worried about…

Canada is bankrupt…
Along with many other G& and Emerging markets who bought debt in US Dollars.

At 10% this country is in big big trouble…

Canada and other Governments around the world will raise taxes to the point where their economies crack and welath leaves like it is now here in Canada

Leaving Canada will become a passtime not a hobby..

#29 mogulrider on 10.31.18 at 8:32 pm

If you can see the bubble it ain’t a bubble.

It swhen you everyone is in rapture that bubbles happen.

i.e. Real estate 2 years ago in Canada…

The bubble has burst
Like Bitcon a year ago…
The Market is not quite there yet.

I was out in August and wont return tot he markets until the 4 year cycle happens.. Not sure when that is….

Its better to sell before the waterfall anyway.
Its called the Swiss Investment Method.

Wehn you time your top – you time your demise…..
That is why most big money moves out of the asset months before it collapses…

You never wait for the top – you sell and take profits happily….

Hard to do when everyone is thumping the table on 2000 Dollar Amazon shares..

But that is actually the sell signal…

#30 homeless in B.C on 10.31.18 at 8:50 pm

Bubble, bubble, toil and trouble! (Shakespeare misquoted)

#31 will on 10.31.18 at 8:53 pm

“Ignore the extremes. Listen to your gut. Be aggressively conservative.”

yes, i said yes, i will yes.

#32 Slowly Boiling Frogs on 10.31.18 at 8:59 pm

Garth versus Jesse.

The battle of the Bubble boys.

Where’s George Costanza when you need him?

#33 45north on 10.31.18 at 9:15 pm

Lead Paint: a new department of gender equality

I worked for the Federal Government for 40 years. The last 30 years with the Canadian Soil Information Service:

http://sis.agr.gc.ca/cansis/index.html

I’d like to make two points: The first is that gender equality is a short term political perspective which competes with the longer term public service perspective. The second point is that the new department wouldn’t be cheap.

here’s Michael Ferguson, Auditor General:

He concluded there is an imbalance between political perspectives in government, necessarily short-term, and longer term public service perspective. The political side has become dominant over the past decades, as implementation of policy has been subverted to message and image management.”

https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/john-ivison-canadas-senior-bureaucrat-and-top-auditor-are-having-a-very-public-feud-over-the-public-service

I’d say if there were a choice between the Canadian Soil Information Service and gender equality, then gender equality would win. In fact if there were a choice between agriculture and gender equality then gender equality would win. After all you can always get food at the grocery store.

and here’s Michael Wernick, the clerk of the Privy Council and Canada’s most senior public servant:

“I’m not saying we don’t have a culture problem. We are risk averse, we are bureaucratic, we do tend to cling to process, we do tend to cling to rules,”

and if the rules say that gender equality is the priority then everything else suffers. Now I am exaggerating a bit. Civil servants still weigh different priorities. My guess is that every program at Agriculture Canada is affected by this short term political perspective.

The other point I’d like to make is that new departments are not cheap. Shared Services was a new department that is now costing $1.4 billion a year. It was supposed to save money but it won’t. Not even close. The message is that gender equality is such a good thing that we shouldn’t even be thinking about the cost.

#34 604 City Slicker on 10.31.18 at 9:24 pm

Garth’s been a god send for helping people sift through all the misinformation and down right lies about the state of our housing industry. Just don’t test his conviction in stock market ! Stocks are his bread and butter. And this blog also serves as a giant advertisement for his services. Don’t anger him with slander of the stock market. Just take what you need about housing, then smile and nod when he starts on balanced portfolio’s while walking backwards towards the exit lol

Actually I don’t sell stocks, and have argued consistently against rolling the dice with them. What I say about balance is the message. In housing, love and other marketable securities. – Garth

#35 Vince on 10.31.18 at 9:30 pm

Hey Garth, what happens to housing when there’s 350 000 newcomers a year? Vacancy rate is at 1%. There’s not even places to house them. Not trying to make this a racist thing but isn’t there a time and place for everything? Like when rent is up 10% – 20% a year. Where’s everyone going to live? I was wondering why houses keeps going up and then realize it will never stop going up. There is so many people born each day and so many being brought in that it’s impossible for houses to go down. Supply and demand. If you’re curious where the demand is coming from, then read the article. That’s where all the demands are from.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-immigration-increase-350000-1.4886546

Where did your family come from? – Garth

#36 espressobob on 10.31.18 at 9:50 pm

Jesse Colombo, seriously? This is comedy to perfection.
The stuff of late night humor.

http://www.thebubblebubble.com/home/about/

Jimmy Kimmel maybe?

#37 Fish on 10.31.18 at 9:54 pm

Just a thought, a small but nevertheless important change you could take bandit for a walk

#38 Terrie Rolph on 10.31.18 at 9:55 pm

“Not to mention there is no valid proof that women get paid less then men for equal work.” Lead Paint

I think there’s quite a bit.

https://www.google.ca/search?client=opera&q=research+about+women+getting+less+pay+than+men+for+equal+work&sourceid=opera&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8

#39 Hiding On the Backstreets on 10.31.18 at 10:08 pm

@#7 Lead Paint
#16 Dolce Vita

The article and pic in the Globe about the gender pay equity crisis in Canada says it all. Economic production and prosperity….women making more, spending more in the economy. The government wants more women in the work force. Never mind motherhood and child rearing. Just import a replacement population.

My buddies and I laugh at the whole sad gender equity pay shakedown industry, whenever it’s freezing cold or stinking hot out. It’s men, men and more men out in construction, cleaning/fixing sewers, laying down the pavement, roofing the houses, doing various back breaking, shitty, dangerous jobs.

Women want pay equity all right – as long as it’s in the cushy office jobs. Next time the ice storm knocks all the trees down and the hydro’s out, let’s send the all female crews to get the power back on. Bahahahahahaha

#40 espressobob on 10.31.18 at 10:19 pm

Sorry, I don’t mean to post in excess but this dude known as Jesse is providing me a hernia in laughter.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolombo/2018/10/31/why-bitcoin-may-make-a-powerful-move-soon/#1a8c04aaedf8

#41 Kelowna Banker on 10.31.18 at 10:19 pm

We are now appraising properties lower than last year tax assessed values in all neighborhoods now. However, demand for mortgages are stronger than ever by some locals risking to get in, but more so mainly Vancouverites bringing their equity and getting out of Van. Young and old. It has slowed off the peak but still pretty strong demand. Off-shore and private money is flowing strong into the towers being built in K-Town that will be mostly unoccupied upon completion. A few that have completed are already showing the Coal Harbor effect, which could easily be predicted a few years back. Finished projects, no lights on.

Working class is going to lose their shirts leveraging up. These portfolios are looking bad.

I have seen buyers going in on their 10th, 11th, 12th property. Using equity as leverage to load up. OZ fever is alive in BC.

The out of town “investor” source money being parked is pretty much unidentifiable. It has slowed, but still happening and very much welcome. Cash with no real trace on where it originated.

You can thank me in advance for this information that will be common knowledge in the coming years when the masses see what it has amounted to first hand.

#42 Fish on 10.31.18 at 10:19 pm

While out for your walk tonight some safety tips

6 tips to help keep your kids safe this Halloween
Facebook
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B.C. Children’s Hospital shares its list of safe Halloween habits
CBC News · Posted: Oct 29, 2018 12:00 PM PT | Last Updated: October 29

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/keep-kids-safe-halloween-1.4874874

#43 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 10.31.18 at 10:21 pm

#35 Vince on 10.31.18 at 9:30 pm
Hey Garth, what happens to housing when there’s 350 000 newcomers a year? Vacancy rate is at 1%. There’s not even places to house them. Not trying to make this a racist thing but isn’t there a time and place for everything? Like when rent is up 10% – 20% a year. Where’s everyone going to live? I was wondering why houses keeps going up and then realize it will never stop going up. There is so many people born each day and so many being brought in that it’s impossible for houses to go down. Supply and demand. If you’re curious where the demand is coming from, then read the article. That’s where all the demands are from.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-immigration-increase-350000-1.4886546

Where did your family come from? – Garth
………………………..

Virtue signalling….He was making a comment on supply and demand.

Without immigrants we would all be poorer. BTW, the coutry’s mostly empty. – Garth

#44 Warren Buffett on 10.31.18 at 10:21 pm

IS THIS ARTICLE A TRICK OR TREAT????

#45 OttawaMike on 10.31.18 at 10:49 pm

I am worried about Smokingman.

Is Jim dead in a Vegas hotel room or in jail?

#46 Bottoms_Up on 10.31.18 at 10:55 pm

#24 espressobob on 10.31.18 at 7:50 pm
——————————-
It’s one thing to ‘predict’ something once (and then hope you get LUCKY again), like Schiff, but a whole other ball game to be Warren Buffet (consistently right) or Garth Turner (consistent rational messaging that can truly help the masses).

#47 akashic record on 10.31.18 at 11:03 pm

Where did your family come from? – Garth

Is this a special Canadian political mind control phrase?

In other countries you never hear this question thrown out of the blue in the middle of a debate about some aspects of immigration.

Here it comes up all the time and magically signals “discussion over” for the participants who are not in the position of power.

Just a reminder. A worthy one. Still awaiting the answer. – Garth

#48 Bottoms_Up on 10.31.18 at 11:04 pm

#45north on 10.31.18 at 9:15 pm
——————–
Gender equality in the federal public service means increasing the proportion of men right?
Demographic snapshot 2016
Female 55.1%
Male 44.9%

https://www.canada.ca/en/treasury-board-secretariat/services/innovation/human-resources-statistics/demographic-snapshot-federal-public-service-2016.html#toc2-2-1

#49 For those about to flop... on 10.31.18 at 11:13 pm

CONFIRMED PINK SNOW.

O.K, so the confirmation of this major loss that I showed a while back has come through and so let’s see what happened.

The details…

3595 Puget Dr,Vancouver.

Paid 3.5 November 2016

Sold 2.6July 2018

So 26% and 31% loss after expenses or over a million bucks washed away in Puget Sound…

M44BC

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/3595-puget-drive

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAwMEwyMw==

#50 Bottoms_Up on 10.31.18 at 11:17 pm

#38 Terrie Rolph on 10.31.18 at 9:55 pm
——————————–
Actually one of the smartest people of our time (JP) has looked into the issue of pay inequity. After stratifying the statistics for things such as years in the work force and job type preference that men and women may be more predisposed to, there is actually no good proof that women are paid less (in general) then men for doing the same job with the same qualifications. Of course there will always be anecdotal examples of pay inequity. But the proper statistics must be done to show the true account.

#51 Rexx Rock on 10.31.18 at 11:18 pm

The new normality is reverse immigration.The low and middle class will retire in 3rd world countries while the poor will continue to come to Canada to make a better way of life.Sad but true.Thats whats been happening for the last 25 years.If you are on a fixed income then you will work until you drop dead or live some where else affordable.Just do the math and travel and open your eyes.

#52 Risktopia on 10.31.18 at 11:27 pm

Market is way oversold. At least over the short term.

https://www.risktopia.com/2018/10/oversold-anyone.html

#53 Ca$h money on 10.31.18 at 11:35 pm

Hey kelowna banker thanks for that insight into the local market. It’ll be interesting to see this all play out but when the money starts to slow down the impact will be material and highly visible.

I wonder what this 2% spec tax will do when that gets going? Can only assume it won’t be good!

#54 For those about to flop... on 10.31.18 at 11:39 pm

CONFIRMED PINK SNOW.

I just did a higher end one and now let’s see what happened to these guys at the other end of the spectrum.

You can see by my notes that at one stage they did what would have seemed like a dramatic drop to drum up some business and possibly a bidding war but it roughly ended up being the sale price as things have gone stale.

The details…

3255 Mayne Crescent,Coquitlam.

Paid 900k August 2016

Sold 849k August 2018

11% loss after expenses or the best part of a 100k bash to the bread basket…

M44BC

Sold early August.

3255 Mayne Crescent, Coquitlam paid 900k August 2016 ass 912

Apr 4:$1,099,900
Jul 27: $848,000
Change: – 251900.00 – 23%

https://www.zolo.ca/coquitlam-real-estate/3255-mayne-crescent

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAzWFhTRw==

#55 AACI Homedog on 10.31.18 at 11:47 pm

Attaboy mr. Turner..

#56 Stop it Garth on 11.01.18 at 12:07 am

Without immigrants we would all be poorer. BTW, the coutry’s mostly empty. – Garth

——————————————————–

Empty, hollow and evasive rebuttal. Try staying on point for once when someone is making a valid point about supply and demand.

#57 Long-Time Lurker on 11.01.18 at 12:47 am

Gasp. Who else reads this blog? I’d better straighten out and fly right…. Nah.

Presenting, piano for pachyderms:

Tickling the ivories! Classical pianist takes his piano into the Thai jungle to play for injured and elderly rescue elephants

Paul Barton plays Bach and Beethoven symphonies to elephants at a sanctuary

Elephants World, near Kanchanaburi, cares for more than 30 rescued animals

Mr Barton, who lives at sanctuary, has been performing for animals since 2011

By FAITH RIDLER FOR MAILONLINE
PUBLISHED: 08:46 EDT, 8 October 2018

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6252345/Classical-pianist-takes-piano-Thai-jungle-play-rescue-elephants.html

#58 Brier Barrington on 11.01.18 at 12:49 am

#45 OttawaMike on 10.31.18 at 10:49 pm
I am worried about Smoking man.
Is Jim dead in a Vegas hotel room or in jail?
……

He imprisoned himself, I called Jim today, was worried too, we go back many years, long before this blog.

He’s suffering from hyper-paranoia. He got Hunter S Thompson wasted in Vegas this past weekend.

He said he went nuts on Linked In, so much so he had to deleted his account. Says he’s looking for excuses and lies when it catches up to him.

“Do you think they will believe me if I said my account was hacked?”

I said “No they won’t. You’re going need to man up, tell the truth about your addictions and deal with the consequences, it might work out for you, its a progressive world now, people have feelings.”

He told me to go f myself libtard. I told him to read this book. He lives it, but doesn’t know it.

(The Subtle art of not giving A #@%!) By Mark Manson

We ended the conversation on his assessment of the Tuesday conference call with Ryan, Doug and Garth.

He said, “I can’t believe they can’t see the massive red wave at the mid-terms, I lost the edge, Im afraid to take a bet.”

OttawaMike, Smokes talks foundly of you, says your not the typical federal civil servant, if you were he would already be in Jail.

I will share up dates if he picks up the phone.

#59 akashic record on 11.01.18 at 12:54 am

#47 akashic record on 10.31.18 at 11:03 pm

Where did your family come from? – Garth

Is this a special Canadian political mind control phrase?

In other countries you never hear this question thrown out of the blue in the middle of a debate about some aspects of immigration.

Here it comes up all the time and magically signals “discussion over” for the participants who are not in the position of power.

Just a reminder. A worthy one. Still awaiting the answer. – Garth

Just a reminder that “we are a nation of immigrants”, I guess.

It is a really weird phrase for me now.

Most of the countries in the world don’t use it for describing themselves. Most of those countries were established much earlier than this one, their “nation of immigrants” phase sunk deep in the historic past. They are now just China, Russia, Germany, Turkey, South Africa.

Our families moved around in many countries in the past. My grand grandparents were born in a different country from my grandparents, my parents were born in a different country from their parents and I don’t live where I was born.

I came here, just like my ancestors went to other places with good intentions, to become good members of those societies, make a good living and live a happy life.

A decent human, not hesitating to claim what felt like a natural right to go and live anywhere in the entire world where I feel like.

Here it is very different though.

Anyone willing to see, even an immigrant, can still see the indigenous people, and the enormous pain they paid for this land to become the “nation of immigrants”. It is not in ancient history books, it’s in the very near past, it’s in the present on the streets if you are willing to see it.

It took me a couple of decades to notice. But when you finally see the pain of these people, I, as an immigrant, feel more like a member of the nation of invaders. It takes away the fuzzy pride of nation of immigrants.

This nation of invaders guilt seems to be attempted to be diluted by bringing in more and more immigrants.
Conveniently and for more practical consideration, also supplying cheaper labor, new consumers, grateful voters.

Still today, I suspect, without seeking consent of the indigenous people of this land, who are still distinctly present, unlike in most other parts of the world.

I find myself thinking every day, “please forgive us for what was done to you, I am very grateful that my family can live here, on your beautiful land now, I am very grateful that you were kind to share with us your unique wisdom you learned about the world, long before we showed up”.

So here is your answer. Maybe a worthy one.

#60 Frustrated Kiwi on 11.01.18 at 1:38 am

Very cool of you to post such a fair follow-up on Jesse, who I follow. Like you, I have no idea if he’s going to be proven right. I think the biggest lesson is, if you’re going to panic if things go down (or be in hardship because actually you plan to spend the money next year), take it out now. But best to not panic and just keep the faith with a balanced portfolio. Personally, I did the math(s) – more than 10 years until retirement, best to just stay the course.

Can we have have a fair commentary on Steve Keen next? I find his debt deflation ideas very interesting. Again, no idea if they’ll be proven right.

#61 DON on 11.01.18 at 1:41 am

While trick/treating, I over heard three moms talking about interest rates and how one was glad she renewed her mortgage and locked in “just got in” The same one took out a flask and took a swig and asks another mom if she was ready to renew. All 3 bought in the last 10 years.

I was just standing there waiting to move to the next house (30 ft away).

On our way up the densely packed street (10 feet between houses …maybe) we saw 5 for sale signs within 300 ft of either other. Walked up further and two more for sale and two sold signs. Westhills Langford bc. Those sold signs have been up for a while. And one guy planted tall bamboo on his lawn…for privacy?? Looked like a mini jungle…couldn’t see the front door/porch standing on the sidewalk 20 ft away. I didn’t realize big trucks could fit into such small driveways on such steep angles and bottomed out. Great area, close to all the new stores, schools, fields, rec center, library, sports centers all new. And the developments continue but lots of for sale signs on New builds. Not a bad area, just not for me. But wow! Mainstreet is talking rate increases and the BoC is coming out with stronger language after 2 years of warnings. ‘We warned you’ from the BoC.

Where’s ET when you need him? Saw Freddy Kruger, but he wasn’t dressed up…kids say the funniest things at the slightest resemblance. Everyone had a good laugh though.

#62 DON on 11.01.18 at 1:45 am

Next year…I am dressing up as Smoking Man.

#63 NoName on 11.01.18 at 1:46 am

Now that we are on bubbles topic, here are two bubbles that i am somewhat worried about.

Non bancrupta discharge student loan bubble, whats funy about this inany cases where loan is in collections very often is hard to prove who owns what. In many cases wo event tooknit to court and demanded proof for chain of ownership, debtor won, many collection agencies or loan issuers had hard time.providing paperwork. If you dont believe me gargel it.

Student loan by age
https://imgur.com/a/eAfWaD8
Student loan growth total
https://imgur.com/a/h1Jbizz

And share buyback bubble
https://imgur.com/a/4glgeeC

What was intersting when all that CA and FB dust settled down a bit MZ sold tons os fb shares mid summer this year.
But wahts interesting there is also uptick in insider selling on snp 500 accompanying big buybacks.
https://imgur.com/a/DiJIAHb

#64 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 11.01.18 at 1:50 am

#47 akashic record on 10.31.18 at 11:03 pm
Where did your family come from? – Garth

Is this a special Canadian political mind control phrase?

In other countries you never hear this question thrown out of the blue in the middle of a debate about some aspects of immigration.

Here it comes up all the time and magically signals “discussion over” for the participants who are not in the position of power.

Just a reminder. A worthy one. Still awaiting the answer. – Garth
………………………..

What difference does it make ? Are u trying to prove that u are more virtuous than he is ? Is it a contest to see who has the most virtue ?

#65 When Will They Raise Rates? on 11.01.18 at 2:02 am

Without immigrants we would all be poorer. BTW, the coutry’s mostly empty. – Garth

They’re flooding 350,000 immigrants per year into areas where the jobs actually exist, while simultaneously restricting housing construction in the immediate and surrounding areas.

Do you not see a problem with this?

#66 RocDoc on 11.01.18 at 2:31 am

Great follow up post Garth. You were fair and generous giving this man some rebuttle room. When you initially posted about his equity investing bubble warning from 2014 and criticized him, I did wonder why you criticized him when his thoughts seemed to echo your own on the housing bubble. Better to warn before than after.

#67 Fortune500 on 11.01.18 at 2:47 am

That was big of your Garth. It is on reason I read this blog. Glad to see someone in the public will to hear the other person out and to at least try and find common ground. That is character.

The truth is, I see a lot of similarities between the two of you. I guess we have to play our cards in a responsible way and hope for the best. This low interest experiment has definitely created some less than ideal/normal conditions.

#68 Spectacle on 11.01.18 at 2:50 am

49 For those about to flop… on 10.31.18 at 11:13 pm
CONFIRMED PINK SNOW.

O.K, so the confirmation of this major loss that I showed a while back has come through and so let’s see what happened.

The details…

3595 Puget Dr,Vancouver.

Paid 3.5 November 2016

Sold 2.6July 2018

So 26% and 31% loss after expenses or over a million bucks washed away in Puget Sound…

M44BC
———–::———-::———- Wow ———-::—–
Thanks Flop! I knew the original owner, gosh he did very well.

He is probably getting a shock and a giggle at this news. He had a nice collection of cars, sold the vintage Ferrari too soon, but he is not a greedy man. Hard working. Have to call him some time.

But Wow, bubbly style losses that were unimaginable some months ago, then it all begins to change; as Mr Turner has been correctly speaking of.

#69 NoName on 11.01.18 at 3:03 am

There was a place few min away from where we live, few times i took kids there to play indoor bubble soccer.
https://youtu.be/s5Ym_Lj7J7E
And this down hiill bubble
https://youtu.be/qPKKtvkVAjY

#70 Howard on 11.01.18 at 4:44 am

#43 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 10.31.18 at 10:21 pm
………………………..

Virtue signalling….He was making a comment on supply and demand.

Without immigrants we would all be poorer. BTW, the coutry’s mostly empty. – Garth

———————————————————

Garth, your first comment is an ideological statement.

Your second comment is technically true but how is it relevant when most immigrants settle in GTA or GVR?

The Minister of Immigration has stated he wants to gradually increase the intake to 450,000 AND take in more refugees. Where are they going to live? I don’t see anyone building a brand new city the size of London, Ontario every year.

#71 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 11.01.18 at 7:05 am

#59 akashic record
I find myself thinking every day, “please forgive us for what was done to you, I am very grateful that my family can live here, on your beautiful land now, I am very grateful that you were kind to share with us your unique wisdom you learned about the world, long before we showed up”.
…………………………….

You are nuts. Aboriginal ancestors emigrated here from Asia tens of thousands of years ago. They are emigrants too, as are all humans who originated in Pangea millions of years ago and spread across the globe. If your line of reasoning is correct then the Americans own the moon since they were the first humans to set foot on it. Get a grip, maybe smoke some pot. It is legal now.

#72 maxx on 11.01.18 at 8:02 am

@#32

Preparing for Festivus.

#73 TurnerNation on 11.01.18 at 8:10 am

Is the Pension game rigged?

A man dropping dead at age 65 is an ASSET to governments, corporations, wiping out their associated pension liability. He’s been a good worker slave.

I read something about this. The slow kill: Food pyramid was inverted favoring carbs with sugar and processed chemicals post-WW2.
Leading to people given all kinds of never ending toxic meds for blood pressure, cholesterol and more.
Add a sedentary TeeVee lifestyle with excessive alcohol and recreational drugs. Bingo.

Killing us softly. Remember they’ll stone you just like they said they would.

#74 Hamsterwheelie on 11.01.18 at 8:12 am

We used the cheap money, leverage and easy mortgage approvals to ramp ourselves up from a mere $10,000 downpayment on our first home into having 4 houses within 6 years.
Both self employed in a satisfying but low paying trade, banks weren’t interested, brokers made it happen. The real estate opportunity we saw (and jumped in flailing wildly) continues an incremental rise even now. We did learn firsthand about bubbles when listing our PR home 6 years after purchase and 2 weeks after the spring dead zone of 2017. (Stressssssy)
We sold anyway at double what we purchased at, then a few months later sold another property, rebuilt another and now have income from 5 stellar tenants over a more manageable, 2 houses as well as lovely place to live.
Evolve or die has been a lifelong motto, being self employed will do that. I no longer see the same opportunities in real estate that existed in 2011 so we’re attentive to other potential income streams (we’re also getting too old for the physical labour required for our jobs)
I like the comment ‘Aggressively conservative’ we had our wild times, now we are battening down the hatches.

#75 Trumpocalypse2018 on 11.01.18 at 8:15 am

5 days until Hell breaks loose.

Expect astonishing violence and social disruption afterwards in the States.

Be ready to evacuate any Canadian locations within 150km of the border.

PREPARE.

#76 Another Deckchair on 11.01.18 at 9:05 am

Heard some report on CBC radio this a.m. about single family dwellings being unaffordable for millennials still.

Ok – with the “densification” plans (at least here in Ottawa) older single family dwellings are being torn down to make:

1) Condo towers.
2) huge SFD’s with zero greenspace, and worth about 2 million.
3) a Duplex and a Triplex on one old lot. (just southeast of the Dovercourt RA for those Ottawanians who don’t believe me)

The old huge back yard on a nice street in the city is gone. The city says so. Densification m.u.s.t. happen, no matter what the outcome.

The old huge back yard on a nice street in the city is gone. It was too carbon-intensive. We can’t continue the old ways. The greens are right, and we all know this, whether we want to follow along or not.

Nobody wants green grass any more. That’s what VR is for. Real grass is a pain to keep up. Easier to drive to a park than it is to push a lawnmower around.

We ALL look back with nostalgia. Even kids. But, that’s not going to bring back Elvis, Steam Trains, and reunite the Spice Girls.

Get over it – accept the fact that it’s not like yesteryear or Disneyland and move on.

Signed – the coffee machine is broken today and I’m grumpy. ;-)

#77 -=jwk=- on 11.01.18 at 9:06 am

Do people really think 340,000 (in 2020) are going to need 340,000 homes? Like every single immigrant is single and looking to buy in the burbs? You think we sponsored our mother in law so she could *not* live with us?

In 2001 we had 250,000 immigrants and the average home in Toronto was $250,000. Somehow, amazingly, the immigrants were absorbed without having to build a new city ‘the size of london’ to accommodate them.

In 2019 We’ll have 310,000 immigrants and the average home price in Toronto will be over 1,000,000. The flow of rural to urban will continue, there will be more rural canadians moving to cities than immigrants moving to cities. And guess what, they will be accommodated.

TLDR; no need for panic, no need for mass building projects, immigrants are not the cause of home price runups – the locals are.

#78 russell on 11.01.18 at 9:07 am

The Yanks love doom porn, from the finacial world to the pulpit Jesus is coming soon and the rest of the world will go straight to hell… or at least to walmart…

#79 Howard on 11.01.18 at 9:46 am

#65 When Will They Raise Rates? on 11.01.18 at 2:02 am
Without immigrants we would all be poorer. BTW, the coutry’s mostly empty. – Garth

They’re flooding 350,000 immigrants per year into areas where the jobs actually exist, while simultaneously restricting housing construction in the immediate and surrounding areas.

Do you not see a problem with this?

—————————————————————

It almost seems like Garth expects native born Canadians (but only those under 60ish, naturally) to move to Yellowknife and Kapuskasing in order to make room for more New Canadians in Toronto and Vancouver.

There are 8 million people in the GTA and greater Van, and welcoming some new folks who constitute a drop in the bucket is the rational and decent course of action. Maybe you should go to Texas and fight ‘the invasion’ along with Trump. Sounds like you have the right attitude. – Garth

#80 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.01.18 at 10:06 am

@#77 jwk
” And guess what, they will be accommodated.”

++++
Really ?
Well at the risk of throwing gas on this debate fire.

https://ca.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idCAKCN1N52V6-OCADN

I’ll summarize……
More than 36,000 “walkers have crossed the border” since jan 2017 and have “thrown the CSB in turmoil”.

We have vacancy rates in the lowermainland of less than 1%. .
Perhaps slowing the immigration rates for a year or two might not be a bad thing until things stabilize……
Or should all the taxpayers and voters “move away to accommodate”?

I will not tolerate an anti-immigrant meme on this blog. Don’t even start one. – Garth

#81 Howard on 11.01.18 at 10:17 am

#77 -=jwk=- on 11.01.18 at 9:06 am
Do people really think 340,000 (in 2020) are going to need 340,000 homes? Like every single immigrant is single and looking to buy in the burbs? You think we sponsored our mother in law so she could *not* live with us?

In 2001 we had 250,000 immigrants and the average home in Toronto was $250,000. Somehow, amazingly, the immigrants were absorbed without having to build a new city ‘the size of london’ to accommodate them.

In 2019 We’ll have 310,000 immigrants and the average home price in Toronto will be over 1,000,000. The flow of rural to urban will continue, there will be more rural canadians moving to cities than immigrants moving to cities. And guess what, they will be accommodated.

TLDR; no need for panic, no need for mass building projects, immigrants are not the cause of home price runups – the locals are.

——————————————————

What you’re completely missing is the cumulative nature of these immigration numbers.

Canada’s immigration intake was quite low in the 70s and early 80s under PET. It jumped in the late-80s under Mulroney and remained high to the present day.

Those higher (and gradually increasing) numbers can perhaps be sustained for a decade or two. But there comes a point at which housing and infrastructure cannot keep up.

History proves that is utterly incorrect. Just stop spewing Fox News talking points and this blog will thank you. – Garth

#82 BlackDog on 11.01.18 at 10:19 am

@TurnerNation #73 re: “Is the Pension game rigged?
A man dropping dead at age 65 is an ASSET to governments, corporations, wiping out their associated pension liability. He’s been a good worker slave.”

No, not rigged. CPP is an INSURANCE program. With insurance, some people pay, but get nothing or much less back than what they put in, while others collect. That is how ALL insurance works.

#83 JB on 11.01.18 at 10:21 am

#11 Ace Goodheart on 10.31.18 at 6:30 pm

Been watching videos as to what the Chinese have been up to, investment wise.

In Canada people have been buying houses and condos “investments” and then rent them out (often at a loss) in hope of future financial gain through endless upward price movements.
In China they kind of do it a little more intense.
The Chinese build “investment cities”.
Yes, entire cities, full of houses and condos that are owned by people who will never live in them. Giant shopping malls that will never see a customer or open a store.
Massive boulevards and highways that no car or truck will ever drive on.
Google “Chinese Ghost Cities”
It will blow your mind.
A lot of the world’s growth has gone into building these things.
…………………………………………………………………..
Condos in Canada are for stupid people. No land, no grass and no future. You invest your money in one of these pits when the walls come down you wont get your money back out. I’m just young enough to wait out all of these old boomers buying into the idea of a cozy concrete jail at high prices. Ten to twenty years down the road they will be dust and Condos will fall like dead birds from the sky. Their children will be left with pennies on the dollar. Then is the time to swoop in a buy low. Until then ghost cities will flourish.

#84 BlackDog on 11.01.18 at 10:24 am

DXP (actively managed rate reset preferred) is rebounding nicely. Up 2.04% yesterday, and 1.32% this morning.

#85 BlackDog on 11.01.18 at 10:32 am

@Don #61 re: ” While trick/treating, I over heard three moms talking about interest rates and how one was glad she renewed her mortgage and locked in “just got in” The same one took out a flask and took a swig and asks another mom if she was ready to renew.”

LOL. Kids are too old for “trick or treat” now, but I remember those days, with the coffee mugs filled with what one of my neighbours referred to as “mommy juice”.

#86 OttawaMike on 11.01.18 at 10:40 am

The immugrunts is gonna steal our jorbs and our women plus bring diseases.
—————————————–

I would argue that Canada’s selection criteria for new Canadians enriches our country by bringing in skilled and energetic citizens.

One troubling stat is that immigrants arriving over the past 20 years are not faring as well as previous cohorts.
We need to better in establishing criteria on foreign equivalency credentials.

#87 Remembrancer on 11.01.18 at 10:46 am

#82 BlackDog on 11.01.18 at 10:19 am
@TurnerNation #73 re: “Is the Pension game rigged?
A man dropping dead at age 65 is an ASSET to governments, corporations, wiping out their associated pension liability. He’s been a good worker slave.”

No, not rigged. CPP is an INSURANCE program. With insurance, some people pay, but get nothing or much less back than what they put in, while others collect. That is how ALL insurance works.
————————————————————-
Which is why, depending on circumstances etc etc etc everyone should look at starting to collect @ 60 as part of retirement planning…

#88 Frank The Tank on 11.01.18 at 11:12 am

There are 8 million people in the GTA and greater Van, and welcoming some new folks who constitute a drop in the bucket is the rational and decent course of action. Maybe you should go to Texas and fight ‘the invasion’ along with Trump. Sounds like you have the right attitude. – Garth

————————————————

I am definitely for immigration here in Canada, but the situation south of the border right now is very different.

Canada is quite good at expelling illegal immigrants. The caravan(s) pose a threat because of their sheer numbers. You can despise Trump, but he is right about emphasizing legal immigration.

Just yesterday he spoke to media about how he has no issue with more immigration, just done legally. Actually, the very system he was pining for is the system Canada uses.

#89 Long-Time Lurker on 11.01.18 at 11:16 am

Spinal implant helps three paralyzed men walk and regenerates damaged nerves.

By Pallab Ghosh
31 Oct 2018

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-46043924

#90 millmech on 11.01.18 at 11:22 am

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstories/private-lender-mortgages-on-the-rise/vi-BBP8w8W?ocid=spartanntp

#91 Remembrancer on 11.01.18 at 11:43 am

#83 JB on 11.01.18 at 10:21 am
Ten to twenty years down the road they will be dust and Condos will fall like dead birds from the sky. Their children will be left with pennies on the dollar. Then is the time to swoop in a buy low. Until then ghost cities will flourish.
————————————————————–
A tad hyperbolic – can’t tell if you mean prices or the actual structures themselves, but agreed these condo thingees are not built to be the Pyramids of Giza or Rome coliseum. Either way, end of life is not time to buy a condo unit – the ground is worth much more to redevelopers probably…

HuffPost has this not too dated op piece on condo aging. You could argue exact lifetimes but relative comparisons look reasonable and match a general 50 years utility rule of thumb with much less for some major mechanical elements… The structure itself will depend on how well built and maintained. Note the caution of glass tower construction – potential chic money pits…

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/dan-s-barnabic/condos-lasting_b_6956838.html

#92 JB on 11.01.18 at 12:19 pm

#91 Remembrancer on 11.01.18 at 11:43 am

#83 JB on 11.01.18 at 10:21 am
Ten to twenty years down the road they will be dust and Condos will fall like dead birds from the sky. Their children will be left with pennies on the dollar. Then is the time to swoop in a buy low. Until then ghost cities will flourish.
————————————————————–
A tad hyperbolic – can’t tell if you mean prices or the actual structures themselves, but agreed these condo thingees are not built to be the Pyramids of Giza or Rome coliseum. Either way, end of life is not time to buy a condo unit – the ground is worth much more to redevelopers probably…

HuffPost has this not too dated op piece on condo aging. You could argue exact lifetimes but relative comparisons look reasonable and match a general 50 years utility rule of thumb with much less for some major mechanical elements… The structure itself will depend on how well built and maintained. Note the caution of glass tower construction – potential chic money pits…

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/dan-s-barnabic/condos-lasting_b_6956838.html
…………………………………………………………………
Ten to twenty years for the aging boomers. The condos will not be far behind though. They do not build them like the old days. All condos since the 80’s are built for a short lifespan. When the owners find out the hidden cost they will flee like rats on a sinking ship.

#93 AB Boxster on 11.01.18 at 12:26 pm

DELETED.

I said we are not opening a debate on immigration. And we’re not. – Garth

#94 jess on 11.01.18 at 12:37 pm

Malaysian Financier Low Taek Jho, Also Known As “Jho Low,” and Former Banker Ng Chong Hwa, Also Known As “Roger Ng,” Indicted for Conspiring to Launder Billions of Dollars in Illegal Proceeds and to Pay Hundreds of Millions of Dollars in Bribes
Former Banker Tim Leissner Pleaded Guilty to Conspiring to Launder Money and to Violate the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act Related to 1MDB
Justice Department to Charge Former Goldman Bankers in Malaysia 1MDB Scandal
Charges will name former Goldman bankers Tim Leissner and Roger Ng, as well as Malaysian financier Jho Low

#95 jess on 11.01.18 at 12:53 pm

Thursday, November 1, 2018
Court Appoints Receivers to Inventory and Distribute Client Files of Lawyer Involved in Largest Social Security Fraud Scheme in History
The Receivers Have Taken Possession of the Client Files and Will Oversee Distribution Process

Former fugitive and social security disability lawyer Eric Christopher Conn, 58, of Pikeville, Kentucky, was sentenced in September to a total of 27 years in prison for his role in retaliating against an informant, fleeing from the United States, and defrauding the U.S. Social Security Administration (SSA) of more than $550 million. When he went to prison, however, approximately 6,000 to 7,000 client files relating to claims for social security benefits remained in his former Kentucky law office. The building and land was forfeited to the United States and will be sold. Before the building can be sold, the client files had to be removed and ultimately distributed to his former clients – a daunting task made even more difficult by the fact that they are attorney-client privileged materials.

https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/court-appoints-receivers-inventory-and-distribute-client-files-lawyer-involved-largest-social

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/29/how-a-country-lawyer-pulled-off-the-biggest-social-security-fraud-ever-and-why-it-could-happen-again.html

#96 jess on 11.01.18 at 1:19 pm

carlin : america is circlin’ the drain

“The voting machines purchased back in the early two-thousands were never meant to last this long. They have a shelf life of ten, maybe fifteen years. Many are no longer made, or the companies that manufactured them have gone out of business, or both. To get spare parts, election officials have had to scour eBay and Craigslist, looking for old machines that other municipalities have discarded. Those municipalities have the funds to buy new voting equipment. Under-resourced communities do not.

This is especially troublesome because Kemp, the Georgia secretary of state, is overseeing his own election. If the state’s voting machines—which he has resisted replacing—are flipping in his favor, there will be no way to prove it. On October 22nd, the former President Jimmy Carter, a lifelong Georgian and veteran international-election observer, called on Kemp to resign as secretary of state to eliminate this conflict of interest. Kemp did not respond. Earlier this year, after purging more than half a million voters—more than three hundred thousand of them erroneously—and sidelining fifty-three thousand voter-registration applications in this election cycle, most of them from African-Americans (Abrams is black), Kemp said, “For anyone to think there’s a way to manipulate the process because you’re secretary of state is outrageous.”

https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/how-voting-machine-errors-reflect-a-wider-crisis-for-american-democracy

#97 AB Boxster on 11.01.18 at 1:26 pm

I said we are not opening a debate on immigration. And we’re not. – Garth

————————————–
Actually you responded to multiple posts on immigration earlier in the blog. Nowhere, did you mention anything about not opening a ‘debate on immigration’.
And you did encourage others to follow up in your comments on immigration.

You did comment the following:


I will not tolerate an anti-immigrant meme on this blog. Don’t even start one. – Garth

If you consider my comment in any way anti-immigrant the you are 100% mistaken. Nothing in the post disparaged immigration or immigrants in any way.

Of course its your choice whether to allow debate on this subject or any other.

But nothing in the previous posts or your response made any mention of this.

#98 yorkville renter on 11.01.18 at 1:35 pm

#17 – deplorable dude & red wave

What you wrote was interesting, so I looked it up… here’s what I found
Examining the early votes cast by party registration in the state, 40% have been cast by Democrats and 42% by Republicans. Roughly 18% of the votes have been cast by those with no party affiliation

With Trump’s low approval rating, and 18% of votes by Independents, how does the data sync with your Red wave sentiment?

#99 KLNR on 11.01.18 at 1:37 pm

@#92 JB on 11.01.18 at 12:19 pm
#91 Remembrancer on 11.01.18 at 11:43 am

Ten to twenty years for the aging boomers. The condos will not be far behind though. They do not build them like the old days. All condos since the 80’s are built for a short lifespan. When the owners find out the hidden cost they will flee like rats on a sinking ship.
_____________________________

I was looking for some reliable info on this issue.
You have any good links?

#100 PastThePeak on 11.01.18 at 1:41 pm

Where did your family come from? – Garth
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I’m 7th generation Canadian. Ancestors came across from Scotland back in 1840 (to Upper Canada:). They didn’t go to the great metropolises of York, Kingston or Bytown though, instead to a little patch of woodland on the g*d forsaken Canadian shield, near the military outpost of Perth.

I feel bad for the life they would have endured (but of course I am grateful as that is why I am here:). No doubt would have gone back but had no money. I am sure before they came they had no idea about the incredibly cold winters, humid summers, and the endless insects. Developing a farm out of land covered in trees and rocks.

But after multiple generations of subsistence farming, my grandfather and father built it into something to be proud of. And that is partly why I need to save some additional money & greatly appreciated Garth’s advice – to keep this historical land in the family – at least for one more generation…

No point to that really :) – felt like writing it after Garth’s question.

#101 Biddy on 11.01.18 at 1:58 pm

Garth, beware the chum-infused waters of any successful blog’s comments sections. You can’t dip your toes into topics (even by responding to comments) without expecting to get wet man.

Step in with both feet because your great wit and intellect attracts people to you and not just on financial and RE topics. Keep engaging with those you think are wrong and maybe you’ll change a few minds.

Why not a respectful discussion about immigration? It’s intrinsically connected to investing and RE, among many other things.

We’re big kids here, we can see the nutbars for what they are and they’re not going to unfairly dominate the discussion. Let the comment section self regulate and watch what happens with a light touch.

Otherwise, I predict your recent pattern of flagging many you disagree with as nutbars (in as other words) will spell the end of a vibrant blog comment section.

As an example, a question: if anyone who thinks immigration numbers should be limited is regarded as anti-immigrant, then those who support current limits would also be anti-immigrant.

Why is one person’s limit fine but another’s racist/anti-immigrant?

Is there an ideal immigration percentage that makes one virtuous, and supporting any lower percentage immediately means one is anti-immigrant?

Btw, this from someone who thinks Canada needs about 100 million people and who supports vastly increasing *legal* immigration while strongly curtailing illegal.

#102 Tony on 11.01.18 at 2:11 pm

There seems to be two types of people, the people like Jesse who know what they’re doing and the suckers who did the wrong thing but at the right time but don’t know it and will get steamrolled when the ponzi finally implodes. I do feel sorry for the short sellers who did the right thing and got fleeced thanks to Bernanke the Fed and the central bankers. I more or less saw through it ages ago but still believe more money was to be made selling short rather than buying long.

#103 JB on 11.01.18 at 2:17 pm

#99 KLNR on 11.01.18 at 1:37 pm

@#92 JB on 11.01.18 at 12:19 pm
#91 Remembrancer on 11.01.18 at 11:43 am

Ten to twenty years for the aging boomers. The condos will not be far behind though. They do not build them like the old days. All condos since the 80’s are built for a short lifespan. When the owners find out the hidden cost they will flee like rats on a sinking ship.
_____________________________

I was looking for some reliable info on this issue.
You have any good links?
…………………………………………………………………
One of many links just google condo problems.
1. Records

Records issues include disagreements about whether or not someone has a right to access records and/or the types and quality of records being kept.
2. Cannabis
On October 17, 2018, Ontario’s Cannabis Act, 2017 came into force and will govern the lawful production, possession, and use of cannabis for recreational purposes in private residences.
3. Noise

Noise complaints are one of the most common condo issues. In many instances, living in a condominium will mean living close to your neighbours, and sounds from one unit can travel into another unit or into the common elements.
4. Personal property

Generally speaking, owners and residents are usually prohibited from storing their personal property in a condominium corporation’s common elements.
5. Meetings

Condos hold different types of meetings for a number of different purposes. For example, the condo’s board of directors meets regularly to discuss the business of the condo, and to make decisions affecting the community.
6. Odours

Complaints about unpleasant or unwanted odours are a common condo issue. In many instances, living in a condominium will mean living close to your neighbours, and smells can sometimes travel from one unit into another unit, or into the common elements.
7. Issues with condo manager

A condominium corporation’s board of directors makes decisions about the corporation on behalf of the owners. While the board is ultimately responsible for making all decisions about the corporation and its management, many boards hire someone to carry out the day-to-day operations. This person is called a condominium manager.
8. Pets

Problems may arise when residents don’t pick up after their pets. Many condo buildings have rules around the types of pets people can keep in their condo unit. Noise complaints are one of the most common condo issues.
9. Neighbour to neighbour

Living in a condominium community means that you may sometimes be unhappy with something one of your neighbours has done.
10. Rules

Condominium corporations and owners must comply with a number of different requirements. These requirements are set out in a series of documents, such as the Condominium Act, 1998 (“the Act”), and its Regulations; the Declaration of the condominium corporation; the by-laws of the condominium corporation; and the Rules of the condominium corporation.
11. Short-term rentals

Short-term rentals can sometimes lead to issues in condo communities, as people renting condos may be disruptive to other residents, and may not follow the condo rules.
12. Enforcing Settlement Agreements

https://www.cbc.ca/doczone/episodes/the-condo-game
https://www.cbc.ca/doczone/features/condo-minium-what-can-go-wrong

#104 MF on 11.01.18 at 2:21 pm

Immigration should be increased.

It’s not just our aging demographics. Canada needs to increase its population numbers in general. That’s how we can have more clout and say in the world.

/debate

MF

#105 Newcomer on 11.01.18 at 2:36 pm

#64 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 11.01.18 at 1:50 am

………………………..

What difference does it make ? Are u trying to prove that u are more virtuous than he is ? Is it a contest to see who has the most virtue ?
————

This is admittedly off topic, but how did virtue come to be seen as a bad thing by the alt-right? Virtue used to be a mainstay of conservatism. Other people could be hedonistic reeds in the wind, but conservatives lived by values and sought to do what was virtuous even when it was difficult. Turn your back on that at your own peril.

#106 Renter's Revenge! on 11.01.18 at 3:19 pm

#105 Newcomer on 11.01.18 at 2:36 pm
#64 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 11.01.18 at 1:50 am

………………………..

What difference does it make ? Are u trying to prove that u are more virtuous than he is ? Is it a contest to see who has the most virtue ?
————

This is admittedly off topic, but how did virtue come to be seen as a bad thing by the alt-right? Virtue used to be a mainstay of conservatism. Other people could be hedonistic reeds in the wind, but conservatives lived by values and sought to do what was virtuous even when it was difficult. Turn your back on that at your own peril.

==================================

The problem isn’t people having virtue in the classical sense (courage, responsibility, prudence, etc.), it’s people performing “virtue signalling”. It’s a strategy invented by the left to subvert rational argument. They do things like act as if they are less racist or sexist than you, or show that they are more oppressed than you are, and that is supposed to shut down any rational argument and automatically prove that you’re wrong whenever you argue with them.

#107 When Will They Raise Rates? on 11.01.18 at 3:33 pm

#106 Renter’s Revenge! on 11.01.18 at 3:19 pm

The problem isn’t people having virtue in the classical sense (courage, responsibility, prudence, etc.), it’s people performing “virtue signalling”. It’s a strategy invented by the left to subvert rational argument. They do things like act as if they are less racist or sexist than you, or show that they are more oppressed than you are, and that is supposed to shut down any rational argument and automatically prove that you’re wrong whenever you argue with them.

——————————————

^ This.

#108 Hicksville Alberta on 11.01.18 at 4:14 pm

#33 45north

Great information. Thanks.

Now we are supposed to get a brand new Federal Bureaucracy with all the trimmings for more micro managed ” equity ” ( this time ) and doubtless there will be heavy and serious obligations and consequences on employers both criminally and civilly for anyone that employs anyone and are deemed to be unfair.

What a bunch of facetious dopes and good luck to them for that.

With all the new Great and Better things this bait and switch gang are bringing in to protect us from ourselves , it wouldn’t be difficult to think of the possibility of one or more regions in our effective Confederation of Regions electing to withdraw from the country and going their own way.

Both B.C. and the Maritimes are outstanding candidates for that.

B.C. has definitely outgrown the Canada backwash and the Maritimes ( although i don’t think they realise it ) could easily and very successfully become an international financial center and haven for offshore and Canadian money should they go on their own, especially with their direct proximity to the USA and the rest of Canada for starters.

I think both might have to beat back the monied hordes wanting to migrate and settle there.

Bigger is not always better, especially in this day and age and just remember that Freedom is just another word for nothing left to lose.

#109 Herb on 11.01.18 at 4:44 pm

#105 Newcomer,

virtue became “a bad thing” when it was weaponized to silence opposition. For instance, you now are a racist if you mention race or colour as a factor in anything, a xenophobe if you raise the impact of foreigners, a homophobe if you fail to support LGBTQ2 issues, anti-American, anti-whoever or unpatriotic if you question whatever the indicated nation, or your own, is doing or has done.

It is part of the tyranny of labels used to dispose of opposition without having to resort to reasoning because virtues supposedly are self-evident, even when their nature or meaning is not. For instance, what does “right” or “left”, “progressive” or “conservative”, actually mean, although they are used denigrate the other side? Do “progressives” actually want to throw every established institution or practice overboard, or are “conservatives” against progress of any kind as such? Or what does “Disparity is our strength” mean in fact?

A German author recently coined the term “Tugendterror” to describe the new practice of using virtue to terrorize opposition. Actually, this is new only in politics; in the bad old days an accusation of heresy got one burned at the stake. Now it only invites one to shut up.

#110 jess on 11.01.18 at 5:01 pm

Japan lands trove of offshore asset data to fight tax evasion

Half a million overseas accounts identified through reporting program
TOMOSHIZU KAWASE, Nikkei staff writer
November 01, 2018 06:01 JST

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Japan-lands-trove-of-offshore-asset-data-to-fight-tax-evasion

#111 jess on 11.01.18 at 5:05 pm

The CRS system was created by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development to fight international tax evasion and avoidance. Tax authorities in participating countries require financial institutions to report information on nonresident customers, including their names, addresses, account balances and interest and dividend amounts. Data is then shared among CRS participants once a year

although,
The U.S. is not a participant; but it has a system of gathering account information of U.S. taxpayers from offshore financial institutions under the Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act

=====

London (CNN Business)Big tech companies are bracing for new taxes in Europe that could cost them billions.
Policymakers across Europe are developing rules that would force tech companies to pay taxes on revenue generated in the region, rather than on profits. Tech companies are lobbying hard against the changes.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/30/tech/europe-tech-tax-google-amazon/index.html

#112 Remembrancer on 11.01.18 at 6:09 pm

#99 KLNR on 11.01.18 at 1:37 pm
———————————————————-
A quick google for “studies of condo building longevity” set this link near the top – nice little project from a more academic p-o-v and supporting / informative links…

https://www.daniels.utoronto.ca/sites/daniels.utoronto.ca/files/kesik-buythatcondo.pdf

#113 Glengarry Girl on 11.02.18 at 1:25 pm

Oh Come On, there is and always has been the Truth and Fiction, Right and Wrong. you are either are a Racist or you’re not. Its not as blurred lines as the New Reality and Alternative Facts is trying to make it out to be to suit their Narrative.