Going, going…

Is it over? Finally?

Quietly last Friday our central bank released stats showing a dramatic, almost historic, drop in family borrowing. It’s plunged by more than half in the last few years, and tumbled topsy-turvy in the last 12 months. In fact, we’ve cut our borrowing level back to what it was in 1983.

The bankers and the mortgage brokers know this. That’s why they were lobbying their pants off in Ottawa a couple of weeks ago, trying to gut the universal house-buying stress test. They failed. Since then interest rates have popped again, and the stress test bar will likely be rising again.

So, when the annual growth in debt falls from plus-8% into the 3% range, isn’t this good?

You bet. The steaming pile of debt – now at more than $2.1 trillion (two-thirds is mortgages) grows a little more slowly. That pile, by the way, is larger than the entire Canadian economy, and explains why 75% of all properties in Vancouver are now assessed at over $1 million. The damage our debt-appetite has wrought is epic.

But here’s the thing. Real estate – which secures most of this debt – is now retreating. At the same time interest rates are rising. Tighter lending regs means credit growth is withering. So a new report this week from Morgan Stanley lumps us in with Australia as “facing a critical juncture as housing markets weaken, forcing a reappraisal of leverage and wealth, as global financial conditions tighten, increasing the consumption drag from debt service and rising savings.”

Huh? This means rates are going up across the planet (as global growth creeps forward, inflation returns and protectionism spreads), causing people to borrow less while rising debt costs eat into their spending. There’s more to come, as the Bank of Canada told us. The current central bank rate of 1.75% will be rising at least a full 1% before it reaches ‘neutral.’Thus, a bank prime of about 5% and a stress test over 6%. Given that, there’s no way places like Vancouver will escape a market correction. Yeah, probably a big one, given the Dipper tax assault now taking place.

Now, speaking of Australia, we could be importing more than homeowner misery from them.

In a recent post we brought you the breaking news that blind housing auctions will soon come to an end. No more submitting an offer in a multiple-bid situation and having no idea what you actually need to pay. The real estate regulator in Ontario is revamping the act covering the industry, giving full disclosure to all parties. An open auction, in other words. Just like Down Under – where they’ve also done a fine job at screwing up the property market. But at least it’s all beentransparent.

To date, auctions are rare in Canada and have only happened with bow-wow listings that failed to sell through traditional MLS exposure. But open auctions are inherently fairer than forcing buyers to guess what price they should offer in competing against unknown parties – while being equally blinded to other important details, such as conditions and closing dates. In order to ‘win’ people are encouraged to inflate bids and strip them of important protections. At the end of the process, unsuccessful bidders walk away without knowing exactly why they lost while the triumphant one always wonders if she overpaid. The system sucks.

Of course, if you’ve ever been to a country auction of furniture or tractors, or a fine art auction selling valuable works, you know what can happen. Bidding fever, competition, testo and adrenalin can cause prices to pop. But it all happens in the light of day, in real time. So when your spouse starts breaking your ribs with her elbow, you know it’s time to stop.

On Monday afternoon, Bloomberg reported this:

White House officials are largely resigned to losing Republican control of the US House and are bracing for an exodus of staff worried about a torrent of subpoenas from Democratic congressional investigators.

President Donald Trump’s team still sees a possible path to victory. But talk of a “red wave” has ceased, advisers inside and outside the White House said. Trump last uttered the boast in public in August. The mood around the president has darkened as many challengers continue to out-raise seasoned Republican incumbents and Democratic enthusiasm surpasses that of the GOP.

Yes, next Tuesday will be a biggie. It’s the first comprehensive referendum on the Trump presidency in a nation deeply polarized. Recent events (Supreme Court, pipe bombs) have only increased the fissure. Left against right, con vs lib, nationalists against free marketers – American politics have gone toxic. And because Trump is the poster boy for populism around the world, what happens next week has implications from Brexit to the creep Brazil just elected.

Markets will be watching this intensely, as you might imagine. Trump poured gas on equities with a big tax cut, laxer regulations and protectionist tariffs. But he’s scared markets with his one-man trade war, worsening relations with China and now a runaway budget deficit. (It happened again Monday – stocks sold off on word Trump will impose duties on remaining Chinese goods).

Will a Democratic win on the 6th cheer investors? Or might it pave the way towards reversal of the tax cut and maybe even impeachment – killing off what’s left of the Trump Bump? Is a red wave in the midterms a signal to the world the America is great again, and ignite more gains? Or will investors just be happy it’s over, whatever the result, making October look like it was a big buying opp?

Without a doubt, this is a Trump moment. And there will be a market reaction.

My suspender-snapping fancy portfolio manager buddies Doug Rowat & Ryan Lewenza will be joining me for a private conference call to analyze all this tomorrow night. That call will be available Wednesday morning here. Whatever happens, don’t blame us.

190 comments ↓

#1 jermike on 10.29.18 at 4:31 pm

first by a mile

#2 PartyLikeIts1929 on 10.29.18 at 4:39 pm

Meanwhile if you had invested in the Canadian Stock Market back in 2008 you’d have negative returns 10 years later and even more losses if you count inflation and management fees….

Our market, like most, has had some great years and poor ones. Rebalancing is a way of routinely harvesting gains. More importantly, the TSX is just one component of a B&D portfolio, so your comment has little utility. – Garth

#3 David Smoltz on 10.29.18 at 4:43 pm

If I’m reading correctly in between the lines here, I am reading (Sell, Sell, Sell!) But If I am reading the lines its 60/40 stay invested.

Why would you sell? All this is temporary and you have no idea what will happen in a week. – Garth

#4 EmmEmm on 10.29.18 at 4:48 pm

not sure about the market correction, but people are buying condos at shameless prices (upwards of 500K) and the rents are increasing in GTA like there is no tomorrow..

#5 Guy in Calgary on 10.29.18 at 4:55 pm

Here I was thinking that daily 100+ point gains in the Dow was how it would always be. Looks like it can go down too. Who would’ve known.

#6 Proud Dreg on 10.29.18 at 4:57 pm

With how the insane FAR Left has treated people with their hate, violence and smear campaigns – only a fool would actually think the criminal Dems have a chance.

Tell us about the pipe bombs. – Garth

#7 Stan Brooks on 10.29.18 at 4:58 pm

Australian housing market is already deflating very fast:

https://www.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/buying/experts-warn-of-debt-bomb-as-housing-downturn-worsens/news-story/6006ca1cc5771c53e3bfac1c07dbd176

According to reporter Tom Steinfort, the current slump is actually “more like falling off a cliff”, with a number of real estate and finance experts claiming houses could plummet in value by up to 40 per cent in the next 12 months.

As I expected it turns out we, the Canadians are the stupidest from all when it relates to housing which is not surprising considering the amount of brainwashing, lies and half truths disseminated by media and real estate ‘professionals’ for a very, very long time as well as the total failure of authorities (Just look at the finance minister, BoC governor and CMHC moral hazard corporation.)

We simply will fall hardest, it is a certainty.

Note that Australia is expecting 40 % decline in 12 months.

Of course we are ‘different’, much more ignorant (which is very hard to say when compared to Australians) but apparently possible and a fact.

#8 rc99ar on 10.29.18 at 5:02 pm

@party. You’re forgetting to add in the dividends you would have collected over the 10 years.

#9 Yvrdood on 10.29.18 at 5:16 pm

Hey Garth,

What are your thoughts on propotional election proposed in BC?
Would appreciate your insight if it’s a sham in favour of the green party or a good idea

#10 Doug t on 10.29.18 at 5:16 pm

The U.S. situation is a lose lose game – both parties are horrible and poisonous. If you think the people running the Dems are going to make things magically different then you are a fool

RATM

#11 jojo on 10.29.18 at 5:17 pm

Today’s market reversal clearly shows big money backing away becuase of the election.

If teh DEMS take any executive pillar you can be sure the market will crash….

The DEMS have stated crystal clearly they will impeach, they will stall teh Trump economic miracle, tehy will tax the beejesus out of wealth…

Then add Germany coming apart which means the EU will fall apart…

BIG and SMART money is going to cash.
Cash has made 10-20% after a 2% return minus a 15-20% crash in stocks in many sectors…

Now add the millions of people underwater in tehir mortgages..

And where is Crybaby or Morneau?

Gone….

It must really suck to be you. – Garth

#12 Stan Brooks on 10.29.18 at 5:19 pm

The steaming pile of debt – now at more than $2.1 trillion (two-thirds is mortgages) grows a little more slowly. That pile, by the way, is larger than the entire Canadian economy,

So we are not rich after all, it was just debt?

How surprising.

And it gets worse: young people are leaving Toronto:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/high-rent-could-make-toronto-a-generational-ghost-town-1.3999022

But the banks will stay, so Shawn Allen can sleep well, he (and his behind) will be taken care of.

#13 Stan Brooks on 10.29.18 at 5:23 pm

Strange that my post on the (latest under-) performance of TSX did not make it.

I guess it was politically incorrect. :(

You are posting obsessively and will be limited to three entries per day. – Garth

#14 Rick on 10.29.18 at 5:37 pm

Stan, don’t feel bad… this is his dark little corner of the web.

#15 yvr_lurker on 10.29.18 at 5:40 pm

With being just above 14,700 the TSX is on a downward race to get to 14,000 in as short a time as possible starting from around 16,300 just on Sept. 21st… just under a 10% drop in a little over a month… perfectly reasonable given all the doom and gloom out there with job numbers, low company profits, debt, pipe bombs, etc… etc…(sarcastic). Maybe its because Greece may default on its bailout (again sarcastic)…. the little country with 0.32% of the world economy blamed for a big previous dip in the global markets… Yet when YVR locals say that the 5% (or whatever number) of foreign buyers are driving tmuch of the increases in the local housing market, many right-wing “experts” say that this is not a key factor etc….we are being xenophobic etc…

Bottom line is, people believe what they want to believe….

#16 Renter's Revenge! on 10.29.18 at 5:41 pm

“consumption drag from debt service and rising savings”

The very words send a chill down every economist’s spine and make their hairs stand on end!

The sky darkens. Scary music starts playing. The end times are near.

“What is the world coming to?” they cry, “We must find ways to make them borrow more!”

Mortgage brokers begin throwing their own into volcanoes to appease the debt gods. Realtors park their Audis in the middle of nowhere and flip the bird to their lessors via Snapchat.

“Abandon all hope, ye who enter a period of rising rates” is spray painted above the entrance to the Bank of Canada.

But wait… what’s that sound off in the distance?

Environmentalists rejoice! Slightly less garbage everywhere as the citizens get their financial acts together. Climate change policies are abandoned as people cut back on non-essential items like heat, electricity and milk-runs in the Escalade.

A new company is created in Canada, for the first time in years, as the entirety of Canadians’ cash flow stops being funneled into the housing market!

Take heed. All is not lost. There is hope yet.

#17 yvrguy on 10.29.18 at 5:49 pm

#13 Stan Brooks on 10.29.18 at 5:23 pm

You are posting obsessively and will be limited to three entries per day. – Garth

///////////////////

thank you Garth! too much stan. sheesh.

#18 Cody on 10.29.18 at 5:55 pm

Garth – it is admirable that you take time to respond to the wide range of commentary (constructive to idiotic) so regularly. No hiding behind a username for you. Kudos!

You noted above that pushing the panic button and selling may be shortsighted. If a person is not currently invested in equities, what would you recommend in the short-term? Waiting until Nov 7th?

The best time to invest is when you have the money. – Garth

#19 jobob on 10.29.18 at 5:56 pm

For all the same reasons credit across the world is more expensive for corporations too.

The S&P 500 corporations are systemically dependent on global demand, the tax cut may help, but a cross road will be met. Is this just the start?

What else is holding up USA stock markets?

Maybe this isn’t just another 1/3 annual mild correction, but a new direction.

#20 Shawn Allen on 10.29.18 at 6:03 pm

Mid Term Elections

Has Trump set it up to blame any loss on the media that he calls – “the real enemy of the people”?

How will Trump’s supporters react to a loss in the mid terms much less any charges against Trump or impeachment?

Is it safe for a CNN host to walk down the street in America? Is it safe for any prominent person to speak out against Trump?

Does the U.S.A. still have freedom of the press and freedom of speech?

I am starting to wonder just how ugly things will get.

Also I have posted more than enough lately so will limit myself to no more than three in a day like Stan.

#21 Pete from St. Cesaire on 10.29.18 at 6:04 pm

Red tidal wave coming on the 6th. Stand fast Craigellachie!

#22 Danny on 10.29.18 at 6:08 pm

“The real estate regulator in Ontario is revamping the act covering the industry”….Garth thanks for the good news.

But who this regulator and can they be influenced by politicians and Queens Park?

Public auctions are a more transparent and fairer process as you say.

I once sold a house and I had no idea what the agent representing me actually said to the one family in a car that wanted to be on site when the bids were open. They never submitted another bid that day.

I found out later that the agent who represented the successful bidder….actually was connected to my selling agent.

That was 6 years ago….and to this day I question the fairness and if I was scammed?

Public auction bids would remedy that.

To avoid scams….will all bidders be required to put down a nonrefundable bidding cheque….should they put in the acceptable highest bid?

#23 AGuyInVancouver on 10.29.18 at 6:10 pm

#11 jojo on 10.29.18 at 5:17 pm
Today’s market reversal clearly shows big money backing away becuase of the election.

If teh DEMS take any executive pillar you can be sure the market will crash….

The DEMS have stated crystal clearly they will impeach, they will stall teh Trump economic miracle, tehy will tax the beejesus out of wealth…
_ _ _
LOL, the Trump Economic Miracle? How fast is that debt clock clicking over now?

#24 Penny Henny on 10.29.18 at 6:17 pm

#13 Stan Brooks on 10.29.18 at 5:23 pm

You are posting obsessively and will be limited to three entries per day. – Garth

///////////////////

I’m obsessive? I’M OBSESSIVE?
NO!! YOU’RE OUT OF ORDER!!!

Stan asked me to write that Garth because he is all tied up ;)

#25 Ex-Cowtown on 10.29.18 at 6:18 pm

“On Monday afternoon, Bloomberg reported this: Orange man bad” Wow….what a surprise by a TDS enraged media outlet.

Trump was also supposed to lose to Hillary in 2016 by a landslide. What most media types have failed to learn is that many people are lying to them in their polls. Case in point: last night we family over. The talk turned to Trump. They all dissed him and expected that I felt the same. I smiled and nodded in agreement, but I’d vote for him in a heartbeat rather than our gutless Soy Boy with the matchy-matchy sockies.

I suspect many Republicans and independents are like that; they smile and nod to their Trump Deranged relatives but pull a different lever in the voting booth and then feign surprise later on.

#26 Trumpocalypse2018 on 10.29.18 at 6:28 pm

9 Days to Disaster.

American factions taking up arms against each other while Trump will be desperate for an international distraction war.

PREPARE

#27 pay your taxes on 10.29.18 at 6:31 pm

“Nationalists against free marketers ”

Who are the “free marketers” of which you speak? All I’ve seen are the oligopolies that privatize profit and become socialists the minute their hare brained schemes go awry. Who could imagine that lending 700 grand to a house horny fry cook would end in tears?

The guy who sent the fake bombs was a nut living in a van and obviously not the sharpest tool in the shed. Had he possessed the intellect of Ted
Kaczynski this would have been a real story and we’d be reading about the Clintons in the back pages of the newspapers instead of the front. Looks like van boy’s DJing days are over unless inmates have access to turntables and vinyl.

I’ve been looking at XTR lately and the price keeps falling. Does this indicate a future reduction of dividends?

#28 Ex-Cowtown on 10.29.18 at 6:32 pm

Tell us about the pipe bombs. – Garth

Tough to compare fake pipe bombs to real bullets fired by a Democrat hunting Republicans at their baseball practice. Luckily no one was killed although several Republicans were injured.

Just for interest I Googled “Left wing U.S. violence” a couple of days ago. Instead, my Google search returned nothing but “alt-Right wing violence”. Just a small example of how the leftists control the conversation. If you didn’t remember that a Democrat attempted to murder Republicans at a baseball practice and almost succeeded you would not be able to find it on Google in a general search.

“Strawberry you want? Nah… you get chocolate and we tell you it’s strawberry, and you believe it.” – Google

Another conspiracy nut. Go away. – Garth

#29 KLNR on 10.29.18 at 6:36 pm

meh, the dems appear to be the less poisonous option. But ya, that country appears – politics wise – seems to be circling the drain.

#30 Greg on 10.29.18 at 6:37 pm

What’s going on with prefs? Bought more CPD last week and it’s down 2 more percent.

#31 young & foolish on 10.29.18 at 6:39 pm

Hang tight Blog Dogs …. Mr. Market is proving once again that you just can’t outrun him. As usual, people pilled in when indexes were rising only to have him suddenly wipe the smile of everyone’s face. Best get used to single digits going forward for some time. And that’s in the best of times.

My Grandad’s advice …. buy the indexes (domestic as well as international) and forget them … Mr. Market will do the rebalancing for you. He uses rental RE as a stand-in for bonds. The rest is just hand-holding through volatility.

#32 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.29.18 at 6:42 pm

@#13 Stan the Man

“Lucky” 13 ?

#33 Proud Dreg on 10.29.18 at 6:47 pm

Proud Dreg on 10.29.18 at 4:57 pm
With how the insane FAR Left has treated people with their hate, violence and smear campaigns – only a fool would actually think the criminal Dems have a chance.

Tell us about the pipe bombs. – Garth

>>>>

Or how about the dozens and dozens of cowardly ANTIFA attacks where the FAR LEFT attackers used weapons on people and/or firebombed places of business.

How many people did the fake pipe bombs injure again?

You sound like you’re 11. Violence and hate do not justify violence and hate. – Garth

#34 Moosemandible on 10.29.18 at 6:53 pm

LOL; free pizza with that house purchase. That takes the cake…no pun intended :)

#35 Network Admin on 10.29.18 at 6:56 pm

Typo beentransparent

#36 Shawn on 10.29.18 at 7:01 pm

A bear market would be mostly unexpected which makes it all the more likely unfortunately. An environment of negative equity and zero (or negative) bond returns would be something not seen in a very long time.

There will be no bear market without a US recession. None is on the horizon. – Garth

#37 Steven Rowlandson on 10.29.18 at 7:10 pm

“The steaming pile of debt – now at more than $2.1 trillion (two-thirds is mortgages) grows a little more slowly. That pile, by the way, is larger than the entire Canadian economy, and explains why 75% of all properties in Vancouver are now assessed at over $1 million. ”

If this pile of debt or all government debt or may be both are un-payable all and may be more than all Canadian currency goes poof! Gone, Nada, Zilch! Why?
Because all currency is backed by debt and not equity. How do you start over? Use the coins in your pocket?

#38 Ogopogo on 10.29.18 at 7:18 pm

I’m happy to report that housing in Kelowna is in a downward spiral. Everywhere you see “new price” signs (realtorspeak for “reduced price”). Listings mount and houses sit unloved, unsold. It’s just starting.

Grab the popcorn, pour the butter, enjoy the show.

#39 Nonplused on 10.29.18 at 7:20 pm

To my way of thinking, rates at 3% are still incredibly low. That’s still only 1% above the inflation target, so the economy can’t be all that strong. But if it is strong, I say we see 4-5% before it is done so the stress test makes sense.

The number 1 rule of lender is to vet the borrower. It’s not like lending money to your brother where you know you will never see it again, banks need to get the money back. I know this type of logic is lost on the people who say things like “but what about the people who get shut out of the housing market?”, but there is a primacy to logic and those poor souls come in second to the bank getting it’s money back.

Reminds me of all the generous lottery winners who went on spending sprees after winning, buying their family members houses and cars and dream vacations, only to end up broke. Should have been a slam dunk, invest with Garth and you and your children will be wealthy for generations, which many of them do, but a surprising number of them are right back where they started in 10 years (but what a party!). It should be mandatory that they have to sit down with a financial planner when someone wins. But unfortunately the thing with the lottery is it is exactly those people who aren’t likely to be able to handle the money who are most likely to play, because they don’t understand statistics. If they would invest all the money they spend on lottery tickets they’d in all likelihood be far better off.

So why bring up the lottery players? Well, those are the exact group of people the banks need to protect themselves against. And there are a lot of them.

A reminder that probably most of the readers here already know, lotteries pay out about 30% of what they take in. So if over your lifetime you spend $100,000 on lottery tickets (or VLT’s) your expected return is $30,000. That is $70,000 of after tax hard earned money you probably can’t afford to lose out the door. Meanwhile the kids go without braces. Casinos and bingos, meanwhile, have to by law pay up around 95% out. But that’s “per play”, so they get you anyway because most people spend the evening in there, so by the end of the evening the odds are you will leave with a lot less than you came in with. But at least many people find it entertaining. I personally don’t, because other than blackjack (21) and poker there is very little you can do to influence the outcome. It’s just a roll of the dice. Even a game like roulette, your decision has no outcome over the long run. You can leave your chips on the same number for your whole life and the results will be the same. It must be so or lotteries and casinos would all go broke very quickly. But the games are designed to give players the illusion of skill when in fact there is nothing they can do to change the odds. The house always wins in the long run, because the odds are stacked in their favor. Even in Blackjack, “staying” on 17 is the perfect strategy, and in the long run you can not beat the dealer’s forced strategy unless you are a card counter and then they throw you out. You could break even though, but the house knows someone is either going to hit on 17 or stay at less than 17 eventually, because they perceive they have “skill”.
Well, unless your skill is counting cards, you don’t. The game is designed to remove it. The dealer is in fact playing the perfect game. At best, you can tie him. This is over many many hands of course. And it must be so, or casinos would not have blackjack tables. I know, I have a knack for taking the fun out of everything.

The lessons to be learned from analyzing casino and lottery odds have analogies for trading. Buying and holding good companies is the only strategy that “beats the house”. You can’t “out-trade” the computers and the pros. Buying options is a fools game (I found out the hard way, I was short (bought puts) Nortel all the way down and merely broke even.) The premiums are calculated such that when you lose you lose, and when you win you don’t win anything. Selling options is the only way to make money in options but you better have a really good idea what you are doing, it’s not for amateurs.

Anyway enough statistics. My point is that any time you see someone in front of you buying lottery tickets at the convenience store or going into a casino, you are looking at someone who probably can’t figure out for themselves how much they can borrow without going broke. So the banks have to do it themselves. This is why in an era of rising rates the stress test makes sense. In fact it’s probably too loose. It should be +3% or more.

#40 Chris on 10.29.18 at 7:21 pm

Hi Garth: Just a brief ‘feel good’ note. Thank you very much for all of the information you have shared so freely over the past few years. I’ve read every one of your columns, and while I don’t completely share your political views, I’ve learned a lot about financial matters from you, and have shared much of it with my grown kids in their 20s. So thank you. The work you do is appreciated.

#41 Ace Goodheart on 10.29.18 at 7:28 pm

If history is any guide, word on the street proves as reliable as it usually is, and Americans behave in their general predictable way, the Republicans will not lose control of Congress next Tues.

Let’s see if I’m right.

#42 For those about to flop... on 10.29.18 at 7:30 pm

Just gonna wade in and drop this one now that I put my wellies on…

M44BC

“Visualizing $21 Trillion of National Debt: Which Presidents You Should Blame the Most.

Ernest Hemingway once supposedly wrote, “How did you go bankrupt? Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.”

Hemingway’s observation looks increasingly spot on when it comes to the U.S. national debt, which now stands at well over $21 trillion. A trillion dollars written out is $1,000,000,000,000. That’s 12 zeroes. How did we get here? Our visualization offers a unique perspective, breaking down the debt into the deficits each U.S. President has added throughout American history.

The U.S. Treasury tracks the historical data for U.S. government debt. Overall figures from before 1950 can be found here, and more specific numbers after 1950 can be found here. We should also give proper credit for pulling these disparate sources together to The Balance. We created a 3-D visualization showing the cumulative deficits each U.S. President has added to the national debt in history, where each block represents $3 billion in today’s dollars. All the Presidents from 1789 – 1913 are lumped together at the bottom, but as you move from the bottom up, you can see the color-coded contribution from each administration. The numbers for future increases to the debt under President Trump came come directly from the White House.

There are a few caveats to keep in mind when thinking about this visualization. First off, the numbers represent inflation-adjusted dollars to make a fair comparison over several years. Presidents also don’t have total control over the deficit. For example, the deficit during their first year in office is predetermined by their predecessor’s budget. Fiscal policies are also ultimately set by Congress even if the President submits a budget blueprint for consideration. And finally, deficits tend to grow during economic downturns and times of war and shrink during more prosperous and peaceful times. That’s why some economists prefer to look at deficits as a percentage of national GDP as opposed to overall terms. After all, a “large” deficit might not actually be very big if it’s tiny compared to the size of the economy.

With all that being said, there’s a lot that we can learn from our visualization. Let’s start by looking at the overall picture, namely, deficits only started growing substantially in the last 40 years of American history. Prior to the Reagan administration, the combined cumulative U.S. debt stood at only about $750 billion, which Reagan almost tripled over 8 years. None of his successors then slowed down, with George H.W. Bush adding $1.55 trillion in a single term, followed by Clinton at $1.4 trillion, Bush at $5.85 trillion, and Obama $8.59 trillion, all over 2 terms. Trump is meanwhile projected to add a total $4.78 trillion during his first term.

So the overall trajectory of the deficit is to keep getting bigger year after year. Reagan inherited a national debt of $750 billion, and Trump added almost $779 billion in fiscal 2018 alone. Yes, there are some periods of stabilization or even contraction, but in general, Presidents from both parties keep adding more and more to the national debt.

What does all this really mean? Is the country ever going dramatically change course? It’s hard to say, but the good news is that the U.S. government can still issue debt at historically favorable rates, with the 30-year treasury bill yielding only 3.24% right now. And measured against the size of the entire economy, the annual deficit is still less than 5% of GDP even if the total debt is now larger than 100% of GDP. Eventually something is going to have to change, but in the near term it looks like deficits really don’t matter. Remember what Hemingway said, “Gradually, then suddenly.”

29 October 2018

Visualization
https://howmuch.net/articles/usa-debt-by-president

#43 SoggyShorts on 10.29.18 at 7:33 pm

#15 yvr_lurker on 10.29.18 at 5:40 pm

Maybe its because Greece may default on its bailout (again sarcastic)…. the little country with 0.32% of the
world economy blamed for a big previous dip in the global markets… Yet when YVR locals say that the 5% (or whatever number) of foreign buyers are driving tmuch of the increases in the local housing market, many right-wing “experts” say that this is not a key factor etc….we are being xenophobic etc…

Bottom line is, people believe what they want to believe….

*************************************
How many times does it need to be explained?

Were Chinese buyers responsible for YVR prices?
Yes, but only in that the media, realturds, and suckers used them to scare locals into outbidding the crap out of other locals.

Actual purchases made by foreigners were minimal and wouldn’t have affected the market in a meaningful way if it wasn’t for the fearmongering.

That’s how the Greeks got blamed for a global dip in the economy-The media takes one little country and turns it into “Greece can’t pay debts!!! Is this a sign that the EU going to collapse!?!?!?” So silly people sell, and even smart people sell knowing that stupid people will sell and you get a little snowball selloff for no real reason.

So yeah technically Greece is “responsible”, but really?

#44 Long-Time Lurker on 10.29.18 at 7:34 pm

#82 For those about to flop… on 10.28.18 at 9:57 pm

Hey Lurker,I must be slipping.

I was referring to the choppiness of the markets…

>Got it, Flop. This place is rife with canine distemper. Actually, it’s going downhill again.

>Just do whatever is best for yourself, Garth.

#87 ETF vs stock on 10.28.18 at 11:28 pm
Hello Garth, I just sold my rental house in Penticton, I have 510k to invest. You talk about etfs but my uncle tells me to invest it all in stocks, not junk stocks he says cn rail, td, Rbc, Mcdonalds etc… only great quality companys that will grow and pay dividends…. what’s the difference between stocks and etf?
Thanks
Arby

>You need a lot of help. A stock certificate is an ownership share of a company. An exchange traded fund is a fund traded on an exchange that can hold stocks. Good quality companies are called blue-chip stocks.

Here, read this:

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2013/09/27/investing-101/

Investing 101 by Garth Turner
September 27th, 2013

Most people suck at investing. The banks know this. Mutual fund salesguys depend on it. Insurance hawkers, too. Plus the cowboys who flog gold and silver. The vast majority of us make two one of two mistakes. We get greedy and end up taking huge risks. Or we get scared and bury money in dead-end GICs. Either way, we lose….

#45 Nineteen84 on 10.29.18 at 7:35 pm

“There’s more to come, as the Bank of Canada told us. The current central bank rate of 1.75% will be rising at least a full 1% before it reaches ‘neutral.’Thus, a bank prime of about 5% and a stress test over 6%. Given that, there’s no way places like Vancouver will escape a market correction. Yeah, probably a big one, given the Dipper tax assault now taking place.”
—————————————————————
Canada – a Nation from
-“Sea to Sea” or from
– “C to C”…or from

– Correction to Crash (in Garth’s more gentle way):

“there’s no way places like Vancouver will escape a market correction. Yeah, probably a big one”

Was this ever in question? Not in my mind – but I was wrong in how long it took!

1984

#46 Ottawamike on 10.29.18 at 7:36 pm

This turbulence is no different than the late 60s. Another time of prosperity and historical stock market gains.

Dont under estimate the deplorables and the uber wealthy of America. The Repubs will do fine.

#47 IHCTD9 on 10.29.18 at 7:39 pm

I’m starting to wonder if schools should start teaching mandatory courses on hardening ones’ self against the BS on the www.

Look at that guy who shot up that synagogue in Pittsburgh, not known to Police, no criminal record at all. He’s on the net posting about a Jewish organization that is importing refugees that were then “slaughtering” Americans, and he wasn’t going to sit by and let it happen. Next thing you know he’s shooting up a bunch of senior Citizens.

This wasn’t happening. No refugees were slaughtering Americans, yet this guy was so convinced, and so angry, that he turned to mass murder. Not known to Police…

Scary stuff going on, especially in the USA.

#48 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 10.29.18 at 7:41 pm

#9 Yvrdood on 10.29.18 at 5:16 pm
Hey Garth,

What are your thoughts on propotional election proposed in BC?
Would appreciate your insight if it’s a sham in favour of the green party or a good idea.
……………………..
Here is an example of France’s procedure for proportional representation:

Round 1: In the first round of voting each diner votes for the one candidate they most prefer. The results are as follows:

Ice cream: 10 votes
Apple pie: 6 votes
Fruit: 8 votes
Celery: 1 vote
Round 2: No candidate has an absolute majority of votes (in this election that would be 13) so the two candidates with the most votes, Ice cream and Fruit, proceed to a second round, while Apple pie and Celery are eliminated. Because their favorite candidates have been eliminated Apple pie and Celery supporters must now vote for one of the two remaining candidates. The sole Celery supporter is health conscious, so now gives his vote to Fruit. However Apple pie supporters are split: three prefer Ice cream and three vote for Fruit. Of those who supported Ice cream and Fruit in the first round no-one decides to change their vote. The results of the second round are therefore:

Ice cream: 13
Fruit: 12
Result: Ice cream now has an absolute majority so is declared the winner.
Something along those lines would seem to be more democratic than 2 politicians negotiating a coalition in a back room. The voters should get the ultimate last say in the matter.

PS : this is only one example of how it could work.

#49 Stan Brook's Psychiatrist on 10.29.18 at 7:44 pm

#13 Stan Brooks on 10.29.18 at 5:23 pm
“Strange that my post on the (latest under-) performance of TSX did not make it.”

“You are posting obsessively and will be limited to three entries per day. “– Garth

Yes Stanley has been going berserk all day in the asylum. He accused the visiting pastor of being a realtor in disguise. We will do our part by increasing the voltage to his shock treatments and increase his straight jacket time….

#50 Kilt on 10.29.18 at 7:46 pm

Great buying opportunity coming up. Dow headed for 20,000. TSX will hopefully find support at 13,600. Timing will be tough, my thinking is things will pick up next August. But I will average down through the whole bear.
Weed stocks are looking really beat up. Thinking of doing a long pair trade in hopes that earnings come in either better or worse than expected. Any suggestions?

Kilt.

#51 baloney Sandwitch on 10.29.18 at 7:55 pm

Not worried. Good time to load up on dividend paying low volatility stocks.
Get educated about the Coppock curve. I only start worrying if the curve hits zero. My rule is to stay long as long as this is above zero, go short if it dips below zero and then go long again when it start to turn up (from below zero).
https://i.imgur.com/Y9HTd2J.png

#52 AK on 10.29.18 at 7:58 pm

“Is a red wave in the midterms a signal to the world the America is great again, and ignite more gains?”
=====================================
Don’t be surprised of the above outcome….

#53 KLNR on 10.29.18 at 7:58 pm

@#47 IHCTD9 on 10.29.18 at 7:39 pm
I’m starting to wonder if schools should start teaching mandatory courses on hardening ones’ self against the BS on the www.

Look at that guy who shot up that synagogue in Pittsburgh, not known to Police, no criminal record at all. He’s on the net posting about a Jewish organization that is importing refugees that were then “slaughtering” Americans, and he wasn’t going to sit by and let it happen. Next thing you know he’s shooting up a bunch of senior Citizens.

This wasn’t happening. No refugees were slaughtering Americans, yet this guy was so convinced, and so angry, that he turned to mass murder. Not known to Police…

Scary stuff going on, especially in the USA.
_______________________________________

and sadly some of trumps biggest cuts were to funding for mental illness.

#54 Vancouverless on 10.29.18 at 7:59 pm

Garth, I’m not sure how many comments you’re deleting or withholding, but that’s for wading through a cesspool of alt-right insanity daily. It looks like it’s ramping up towards midterms.

My concern is what fraction will go beyond being keyboard warriors. It’s clear at least a few do.

I have my hip waders and rubber gloves on. – Garth

#55 Kilt on 10.29.18 at 8:04 pm

Hey Garth. Clicked on your link. You guys should try and smile a little bit in the photo. Especially you. At least a half smile. That might require you to stop reading the comments for a few days though.
Will you guys talk about technical analysis tomorrow? You guys have gone to TA for your bull case. What about the bear case.

Kilt.

#56 Pollster on 10.29.18 at 8:05 pm

I wouldn’t trust Bloomberg as far as I could throw them when it comes to election forecasting. They totally blew 2016. By now we should have come to realize that it is a grave mistake to underestimate president Doritos.

Anyway it’ll be an interesting election to watch. Either outcome will be a complete surprise. Also I put my money on more interesting events like caravans and pipe bombs in the news in the coming days. These are contrived events instigated with the intent of influencing the election results. I don’t know by who, probably not the Russians though. I don’t think they would touch this election with a 10 foot pole after last time.

And nobody is buying the “fake bomb hoax”. The US postal service could not possibly have delivered 10 packages to 10 different locations all on the same day. Try mailing out 10 Christmas cards and see when they arrive. Plus you don’t mail a bomb with timer, who knows where the heck it will go off. You use a trip of some sort. And it’s pointless to mail bombs to people who don’t open their own mail. The best you could do is kill some unsuspecting staffer in the mail room. Also real bombs have explosives in them. Our polls indicate absolutely nobody is buying this story. At best we have some crazy person trying to cause alarm. At worst a contrived “fake news” story.

In the old days it was standard practice for politicians to throw a brick through their own window and then tell the press they had been attacked by their opponents supporters. That looks like what we may have here. Hard to say though, the facts are not known.

The caravan is something new though, and too well organized not to have funding. It’s hard to say who is behind it though, because it generates talking points for both democrats and republicans. The “bad orange man” is sending the army to stop them and his base loves it. The 1/1024 party is saying “let them in” but it is being met with mixed response. Our polls indicate that most Americans feel you can’t just storm the boarder even if they are in favor of immigration. And they should feel that way. If this caravan is allowed to pass, it’ll be caravans all day every day from here on in. Our polls indicate a great many people in the third world are watching this caravan and planning to do the same thing if it is successful. God help us if they keep walking to Canada. We already have unacceptable levels of homelessness.

The American natives at first welcomed the Europeans, because it gave them access to steel tools including guns and also horses in exchange for furs and other resources. But I suspect the natives did not expect the Europeans would move very far inland away from their boats. They did not know about the “iron horse”. How could they? The Europeans didn’t even have them yet. Had the natives known what was coming I suspect they would have started the “battle to the death” much earlier than they did and perhaps won. As it was they still put up a pretty good fight. But what happened to them is a really good lesson as to what happens to a nation that allows unrestricted immigration.

No country has ‘unrestricted immigration.’ I thought more of you than that. – Garth

#57 the Jaguar on 10.29.18 at 8:05 pm

#39 Nonplused
“To my way of thinking, rates at 3% are still incredibly low.”

If one thinks back in time to when rates approached 20% that’s true. But what’s different (then and now) is the size of the average mortgage (then and now). At some point in time it all became play money and ordinary folks began to see mortgages for 500,000 ( HALF A MILLION DOLLARS!) as some kind of new normal. But they seemed not to notice that their salaries never kept up with the price increases and large payments. They have also trusted the banks to tell them what was affordable and sensible and now the chickens are coming home to roost for both lender and borrower. And as it all unfolds there will be the unmistakable sound of a deflating gasbag. No, that wasn’t your dog that farted.

#58 the Jaguar on 10.29.18 at 8:08 pm

Also, the Jag finds Doug Rowat sexier with his poindexter black framed glasses on….

#59 Tony on 10.29.18 at 8:10 pm

Re: #11 jojo on 10.29.18 at 5:17 pm

I’ve been hoping Trump gets impeached from the first day he was elected.

#60 Tony on 10.29.18 at 8:15 pm

Re: #50 Kilt on 10.29.18 at 7:46 pm

Trump will never allow a bear market before 2021. He’ll make sure the DOW never falls below the 22,500 mark. That’s the line in the sand that will never be crossed.

#61 Ustabe on 10.29.18 at 8:15 pm

Is three posts a day cumulative or does the count reset every 24 hours?

I mean if you must have rules you need addendum’s, loop hole plugs, some method of allowing favorites to do an end run, no?

Three posts of 30 words each are the same as one post of 90 words if it is tripe. Look at this comment string….50 responses in and you have had to respond or correct a significant portion of off topic posts. From the same old same old.

My advice (I know you want to take it, really I do….) is the never complain/never explain path.

Just disappear them. Take them up in the helicopter and drop them in the Bay of Fundy. Can’t do the Lunenberg harbour, I hear its already got a fecal count problem, no?

#62 renter in Surrey on 10.29.18 at 8:16 pm

When this damn RE is going to crash in lotusland?
I see around 5% reductions in the valley on zolo so far,
5% on $mil+ does not make much difference

#63 SoggyShorts on 10.29.18 at 8:29 pm

#48 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 10.29.18 at 7:41 pm

I don’t love any system where 49.99% of voters can “lose”. I guess it’s better than FPTP where you can have 66% of voters lose, but I think I’d rather have all votes count and be represented in government. That said, I haven’t seen an actual functioning system that impresses me.

#64 Blobby on 10.29.18 at 8:32 pm

Wow, so many conspiracy nuts out today

So I’ll change topic – Garth, I find this stuff interesting, so let’s imagine America keeps going along well and increasing their rates, we keep following

This leads to a correction in van and Toronto. This puts people underwater, no longer able to take out helocs, struggling to pay debt, not going out and spending. Causing a dent in the economy

What happens then?

Does bank keep increasing rates, to stave off inflation (with states raising theirs?). Does it lower rates (nuking value of cad?).

I read recently 1 in 4 recent buyers were struggling to pay down their mortgage.. what happens when rates go up another 1%?

Is there other possible scenarios to fix this? Sure bank could lower rates, Nuke CAD, etc, but then we know from experience – low rates are a bad idea, it encourages idiots to over borrow.

Would this be a case of just ripping off band aid and letting it happen? If so, that’ll be kiss of death to whichever party is in power

#65 the ryguy on 10.29.18 at 8:36 pm

Any of you expecting a blue wave are going to be thoroughly disappointed. Nearly ever single metric available is showing a gain for GOP in the house & senate. Yes traditionally the party in power loses seats if not control.. thats because usually all the voters that were lied to vote for someone else. Trump has kept his word, sorry guys, Trumps gonna gain seats.

Re the pipe bombs..Im not saying this is a big conspiracy theory..but this is straight from CNN (Bible for lefties):

“Magistrate Judge Edwin G. Torres informed Sayoc of the five federal crimes he’s facing: interstate transportation of an explosive, illegal mailing of explosives, threats against former presidents and other persons, threatening interstate communications and assaulting current and former federal officers.”

Can anyone tell me why he isn’t being charged with attempted murder? That’s weird isn’t it? Hmm, something is fishy about it.

Murder is not a federal crime. – Garth

#66 Pete from St. Cesaire on 10.29.18 at 8:39 pm

#47 IHCTD9 on 10.29.18 at 7:39 pm I’m starting to wonder if schools should start teaching mandatory courses on hardening ones’ self against the BS on the www.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
And maybe start teaching them to not blindly believe the main stream media before they get caught up in any more of the ‘babies removed form the incubators’ or ‘so-and-so has weapons of mass destruction’ lies.

#67 bdwy sktrn on 10.29.18 at 8:42 pm

Weed stocks are looking really beat up. Thinking of doing a long pair trade in hopes that earnings come in either better or worse than expected. Any suggestions?
——————–
earnings will come and prove that these things are still 70% overvalued.
continue shorting aggressively.

pure poison.

at 3x sales best estimates for 2019 will put tilray/weed into single digits.

#68 paul on 10.29.18 at 8:43 pm

59 Tony on 10.29.18 at 8:10 pm

Re: #11 jojo on 10.29.18 at 5:17 pm

I’ve been hoping Trump gets impeached from the first day he was elected.
——————————————————————–
Ya, I thought they should have fired you on your fist day as well.
But I guess they kept you for awhile just goes to show you everyone makes Huge mistakes.

#69 AB Boxster on 10.29.18 at 8:47 pm

#28 Ex-Cowtown on 10.29.18 at 6:32 pm

Another conspiracy nut. Go away. – Garth

_——————–
Sorry Garth but you are wrong on this one.

Google, twitter and Facebook are extremely left wing and have been censoring their sites and search results for years.

It’s very well documented.

Next is the left effort to eliminate true freedom of speech.

GAB, the true free speech alternative to twitter is now being censored by PayPal refusing transactions, being booted off their ISP, and now GoDaddy cancelling their domain name host.

All because the synagogue shooter had an account on this site.

The same has not happened to Facebook or twitter despite having the same issues.

Free speech is under attack today by media, payment platforms, progressive universities, etc.

Google is happy to provide censored search engines to the Chinese because they can make a buck.

Very, very dangerous what is happening today.

GAB is sewer. Don’t crawl in. – Garth

#70 Yo on 10.29.18 at 8:48 pm

Garth,
When you hear someone saying something you don’t want to hear it’s a conspiracy nut?
You are totally wrong about the lefties. Go check out Cuba and Venezuela then we will chat again.
Thanks God for Donald Trump!

#71 young & foolish on 10.29.18 at 8:48 pm

“When this damn RE is going to crash … ” — Surrey

Do you need a further reason for why RE will never really “crash”?

#72 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 10.29.18 at 8:50 pm

#63 SoggyShorts on 10.29.18 at 8:29 pm
#48 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 10.29.18 at 7:41 pm

I don’t love any system where 49.99% of voters can “lose”. I guess it’s better than FPTP where you can have 66% of voters lose, but I think I’d rather have all votes count and be represented in government. That said, I haven’t seen an actual functioning system that impresses me.
………………………………..

All votes do count but sometimes you don’t get your first choice. Democratic government is about compromise, no one gets everything that they want.

#73 KLNR on 10.29.18 at 8:50 pm

@#68 paul on 10.29.18 at 8:43 pm
59 Tony on 10.29.18 at 8:10 pm

Re: #11 jojo on 10.29.18 at 5:17 pm

I’ve been hoping Trump gets impeached from the first day he was elected.
——————————————————————–
Ya, I thought they should have fired you on your fist day as well.
But I guess they kept you for awhile just goes to show you everyone makes Huge mistakes.
_____________________________________
lol, you suck at humour Paul.
Keep your day job.
If you have one :)

#74 Teacher Dan on 10.29.18 at 8:54 pm

#47 IHCTD9 on 10.29.18 at 7:39 pm
“I’m starting to wonder if schools should start teaching mandatory courses on hardening ones’ self against the BS on the www.”

That would be a parental duty first and foremost. I would extend it to BS in general with the internet being a big culprit. Einstein said it well: “the purpose of education is not to memorize facts but to train the mind to think.” A trained mind that can think critically can spot BS at a distance. Parents need to know how to do this and then pass it on to their kids. Education should also do it but don’t bet on it and take matters into your own hands as a parent.

#75 yvr_lurker on 10.29.18 at 9:03 pm

#43
How many times does it need to be explained?

Were Chinese buyers responsible for YVR prices?
Yes, but only in that the media, realturds, and suckers used them to scare locals into outbidding the crap out of other locals.

Actual purchases made by foreigners were minimal and wouldn’t have affected the market in a meaningful way if it wasn’t for the fearmongering.
——————————–

Dear Soggy…

You have identified only part of the story, which I do know well. However, you clearly do not live in YVR. The other key factor of foreign-influence of $$$ is un-deniable in much of the city, from all the empty high-rise towers in dowtown and ghost-neighbourhoods on the west side etc…etc… from extensive money- laundering in casinos and influence-peddling in city hall…. ALL The vision candidates were given the boot in the last election…
Easy to comment from the armchair in Toronto.

#76 Deplorable Dude on 10.29.18 at 9:04 pm

#65 The RYguy “Can anyone tell me why he isn’t being charged with attempted murder? That’s weird isn’t it? Hmm, something is fishy about it.”

Because they weren’t pipebombs.

Read the indictment………..http://www.documentcloud.org/documents/5022249-Cesar-Sayoc.html

The FBI issued a schetchy statement calling the devices “
energetic material that can become combustible when subjected to heat or friction.”

????????

If the mailed IED devices were “functionally explosive” they would fall under the category “weapons of mass destruction” and the indictment would include 18 US Code 2332a. The absence of this charge infers the devices were not functionally explosive.

If they were pipebombs its an automatic life sentence for each one. But the DOj said he’s facing max 48 years.

Fake pipebombs…..

Terrorism is when you terrorize people. There is no justification. – Garth

#77 young & foolish on 10.29.18 at 9:04 pm

“This puts people underwater, no longer able to take out helocs, struggling to pay debt, not going out and spending. Causing a dent in the economy … What happens then?” — Blobby

Well, probably recession. Have you noticed? Almost everybody everywhere (governments and corporations included) is running huge deficits. Without them, no growth.

#78 kbeank on 10.29.18 at 9:06 pm

Thanks for providing the call (and this blog) for free. These have been a guiding hand for our family.

#79 WUL on 10.29.18 at 9:08 pm

Miracles will never stop ceasing.

Opening of the 3rd period. Flame and Leafs 0-0. I’m watching anxiously.

Turner, you are a gifted man. (Mandatory suck up statement – contrary to my instincts).

WUL

#80 EP on 10.29.18 at 9:09 pm

When volatility is more severe and frequent (now), that is usually a sign of getting closer to the bear and until it shows up, the market goes up and down in a range without any new highs. Makes you think if you should really put yourself through the roller coaster.
If there is 6-8 more months of this for it to all go down by 20+%, why provide liquidity to those who will be out the door first.

The VIX does not forecast bears. – Garth

#81 R Vanzo on 10.29.18 at 9:12 pm

Tell us about the ricin sent to republicans, tell us about a democrat Bernie bro shooting a republican basebal game. Two can play his game.

You are as demented as they. – Garth

#82 45north on 10.29.18 at 9:14 pm

The bankers and the mortgage brokers know this. That’s why they were lobbying their pants off in Ottawa a couple of weeks ago, trying to gut the universal house-buying stress test.

The bankers are the dog; the mortgage brokers are the tail; the dog wags the tail.

I’m thinking, two years ago, the bankers decided to put the brakes on. They decided to reduce credit going into housing. They knew that real estate would retreat. Any discomfort the mortgage brokers would suffer was collateral damage.

here’s Garth from a few days ago:
Banks don’t want property. They know what’s coming.

what’s coming is real estate in retreat. At the banks, it’s already happened.

#83 WUL on 10.29.18 at 9:22 pm

#39 Nonplused on 10.29.18 at 7:20 pm

klein klein klein

*********

AB gov’t makes more moolah from booze and bingo/gambling than it does from its oil and gas royalties. An addiction. We gave away out natural bounty.

WUL

#84 Lottery Winner on 10.29.18 at 9:33 pm

To #39 nonplused

Let me introduce myself, a new poster here.

It was interesting to read your takes on lotteries. Some I agree with. For example, slot machines and VLTs are dumb, destructive and designed to play on human psychology at its weakest. Silly to play these, and only low IQ idiots spend much time in casinos. I find them dull and depressing, and walking into a slots room feels like going through a mental hospital to me. Similarly, just dropping $5 on a Lotto Max ticket whose odds are 1:28,633,528 on any size jackpot is not a strategy for success in most cases. (Though even the worst lotteries can have advantages over buying certain stocks, something I may discuss sometime here)

On the other hand, I have done very well with other traditional lotteries and also sports betting, plus other varieties of raffles. There are quite a few people like me. We are a quiet community of hard working professionals in our approaches.

Your estimate of the payout on lotteries at 30% is way off, if you can apply intelligence to game selection and the games themselves. I and many others are known for routinely recouping 60-70% SPPB (small prize pay back) on selected lottery games. This is the biggest secret, which I am happy to share here. It functions to keep you in the game long enough to have a chance to win major prizes, which fate has bestowed upon me a few times, thank you very much. Not a coincidence, but a strategy. Sports betting can be just as fun, as there are mathematical ways to counter-bet government games and claim prizes that yield very productive outcomes. (That information I will not share, too risky it might be shut down)

Carefully selected lottery play has cost me a bit over $50,000 a year in expenditures for just over a decade, and created an income stream of several times that annually on average, all tax free. No effect on my other income, and I have helped family members here and there too.

With my excess winnings over expenditures I regularly employ the kind of intelligent investing strategies that Mr. Turner recommends on this blog, and am grateful for that advice.

2017-2018 has turned into a very pleasant couple of years for me and I’ve been able to stop my other work. Perhaps if I am bored I will share some more tips here.

Good day to all!

#85 SoggyShorts on 10.29.18 at 9:34 pm

#65 the ryguy on 10.29.18 at 8:36 pm
Trump has kept his word, sorry guys
**************************
Top 5 Promises:

1. Repeal Obamacare Nope.
Build a wall, and make Mexico pay for itNope.
Suspend immigration from terror-prone placesYep.
Cut taxes for everyoneYep/Nope.*
Lower the business tax rateYep/nope**

2/5 isn’t quite the perfect score you’d like.

*While most income groups will get a cut, those benefitting the most are not the middle class as promised.
**from 35% to 21%, not 15% as promised.

#86 Axehead on 10.29.18 at 9:36 pm

Garth. One of your best posts. You age well. Thanks.

#87 the ryguy on 10.29.18 at 9:36 pm

Murder is not a federal crime. – Garth
——————————————–
Normally thats true, but there exemptions, one of which is “18 U.S.C. Section 1716”..same thing they got the unabomber for.

Just saying its weird, my radar isn’t usually wrong.

#88 For those about to flop... on 10.29.18 at 9:40 pm

Pink Pumpkins being carved in Vancouver.

The kool aid chugging continues with this one only being scooped up earlier this year.

They paid 4.4,pretty much bang on with assessment in April of this year.

According to the listing gods they had it back on by September and after starting off at 4.98 the ask has been whittled down to below purchase at 4.28

Because of the expenses involved cases like this one can result in 500k losses before anyone gets a chance to shout in anger.

It’s out by U.B.C.

Isn’t that where all the smart people are…

M44BC

4724 w 6th ave,Vancouver.paid 4.4 ass 4.4

New ask as of today 4.28

Oct 29, 2018 $4,280,000 Price Reduced
Oct 12, 2018 $4,500,000 Price Reduced
Sep 10, 2018 $4,980,000 Listed For Sale

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/4724-west-6th-avenue

#89 IHCTD9 on 10.29.18 at 9:51 pm

#53 KLNR on 10.29.18 at 7:58 pm

and sadly some of trumps biggest cuts were to funding for mental illness
—————

I don’t think this guy was any more ill than the proud boys and antifa airheads that are hosing each other down with pepper spray and showing up at rallies in body armour and balaclavas.

If you look at all this stuff with a wide angle lens, it looks more like anger, incited anger IMHO. Political issues have taken over some folks lives, they’re red hot over it, and want to fight the “enemy”. It’s civil war light.

Once you’ve let your mental guard down to the point where you want physical altercations or deaths over political/religious/racial issues, you’re on the edge of becoming the next Lunatic to hit the headlines. Especially if you end up consumed by what amounts to the generic, garden variety bull$h!t which totally infests the web.

IMHO, this is the stuff serious conflict could potentially rise out of.

#90 the ryguy on 10.29.18 at 9:52 pm

#84 SoggyShorts on 10.29.18 at 9:34 pm
———————————————-
Fair points, although he has gutted Obamacare, this was the first year the silver plan went down, progress is being made.

I dont remember him saying the middle class would benefit the most, but hey, maybe you are right. This was the first round of tax cuts, he said there will be more, so far he’s kept his word.

Im with you on the wall, I don’t know that it will ever get built..thats definitely where he gets the most push back. Besides if he did, then where would the democrats get their voters :)

#91 KLNR on 10.29.18 at 9:55 pm

@#70 Yo on 10.29.18 at 8:48 pm
Garth,
When you hear someone saying something you don’t want to hear it’s a conspiracy nut?
You are totally wrong about the lefties. Go check out Cuba and Venezuela then we will chat again.
Thanks God for Donald Trump!
_____________________
no no.
When you hear someone completely fabricate a story to fit their narrative – that’s a conspiracy nut.
lots of em’ on here lately.

#92 Calgary Retiree on 10.29.18 at 10:08 pm

65 the ryguy on 10.29.18 at 8:36 pm

Re the pipe bombs..Im not saying this is a big conspiracy theory..but this is straight from CNN (Bible for lefties):

————————————
Here we go again. Right wing conspiracies about the violent evil left. Must originate from the NRA, that far left liberal organization. The pipe-bomber’s profile fits the Trump crowd perfectly. With the mob at Trump’s Nuremberg rallies. goofy grin, MAGA hat and lock’er up on his lips.

The “violent left” mantra is another far right fantasy. As Bill Maher puts it; “the only time liberals carry a pitch fork is when they’re composting”.

#93 AK on 10.29.18 at 10:12 pm

“White House officials are largely resigned to losing Republican control of the US House and are bracing for an exodus of staff worried about a torrent of subpoenas from Democratic congressional investigators.”
====================================Makes perfect sense.
Instead of working for the people, they will waste tax payer’s money and play useless political games.

#94 Deplorable Dude on 10.29.18 at 10:23 pm

Terrorism is when you terrorize people. There is no justification. – Garth

Agreed.

Simply pointing out yet another news fallacy which is being repeated as gospel truth by the MSN

#95 For those about to flop... on 10.29.18 at 10:24 pm

Recent sale report.

This recent sale is probably enough to put the heebie jeebies on a few old time purchases.

The details…

5880 Falcon Rd.

Paid 2.38 in May 2012

Sold 2.25 August 2018

Originally asking 2.49

Assessment 3.19

So according to REW they bought in 2012,you have to do this with the older purchases.

I see people still pretending nothing is going on and that’s o.k but it’s better to be updated even if you can’t panic because your paycheque depends on not cottoning on.

I understand,but anything is possible in this new market.

You guys wanna talk porkies,fair enough,I’m not interested.

Most people that bought in 2012 are perfectly fine at this stage,not these guys…

M44BC

#96 50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE! on 10.29.18 at 10:34 pm

Pathetic Make Believes crushed by Calgary Flames!

At least Calgarians alive today know what it’s like to win a Cup, or make it to the finals. Only about
10% of Toronturds can even remember that sort of feeling.

And now the second tier “star” player of the Make Believes is out, probably for a couple months. Just what management needs, an excuse for yet another failing season. Time to start increasing the prices for 2019-2020, LOL!!!

All your sports teams, Toronto, are emblematic of what a pathetic, fifth-rate dirty toilet bowl of a city and region the GTA is.

Your delusional real estate bubble has not lifted the quality of your lives one iota. Just made it all worse.

The Arghh! Hoes!, boring Jayzzzzzzzz, Wrapped Whores and Make Believes all symbolize how you’re all going down the drain together.

What a wasteland of losers :(

#97 Smartalox on 10.29.18 at 10:51 pm

AB Boxer and Ex-Cowtown:

Free speech means you can speak your mind without fear of arrest by the state. Period.

Free Speech:
– Does NOT entitle you to an audience
– Does NOT entitle you to a ‘platform’
– Does NOT entitle you to a service that collects donations from like-minded twits to compensate you for your vulgarity.

But it does make it easier.
– Easier to find out who agreed with the mass-murder in Pittsburgh.
– Easier to identify and locate other users of the platform, who agreed with the killer, and encouraged him in his actions.
– Easier to trace the exchanges of funds amongst similarly vile-minded individuals, to identify conspiracies, and alert others who may be in danger.

#98 Capt. Serious on 10.29.18 at 10:52 pm

This is a pretty interesting Twitter thread by Meb Faber about reasonable expectations for a US stock / US bond portfolio going forward. Reasonable may well be about 3-4%.
https://twitter.com/MebFaber/status/1057044524017438720
Hot quote:
“We’ll use today’s 2% dividend yield and historical growth rates.

If valuations just head back to normal (long term average of 17 and low inflation average of 21) you have stock returns of about 1-3% per year for a decade. Meh. Not negative, not a bubble, but not exciting…”

Of course, we don’t know what will really happen, but it’s an interesting thought process.

#99 Fish on 10.29.18 at 10:52 pm

How a shift in Ottawa’s bookkeeping is going to make the deficit loom larger

The change will make the federal government’s estimate of future pension costs more accurate

Karina Roman · CBC News · Posted: Oct 19, 2018 4:00 AM ET | Last Updated: October 19

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/pension-interest-deficit-canada-1.4869285

#100 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.29.18 at 10:55 pm

#49 Stan Brook’s Psychiatrist on 10.29.18 at 7:44 pm
#13 Stan Brooks on 10.29.18 at 5:23 pm
“Strange that my post on the (latest under-) performance of TSX did not make it.”

“You are posting obsessively and will be limited to three entries per day. “– Garth

Yes Stanley has been going berserk all day in the asylum. He accused the visiting pastor of being a realtor in disguise. We will do our part by increasing the voltage to his shock treatments and increase his straight jacket time….
————–
Posting obsessively on Garth’s blog is now a COPD recognized by the Canadian Society of Psychiatrists..
Prozac is the first line of treatment until newer drugs come on the market.

#101 John on 10.29.18 at 11:01 pm

EX COWTOWN “I smiled and nodded in agreement, but I’d vote for him in a heartbeat rather than our gutless Soy Boy with the matchy-matchy sockies.”

I agree with you 100%. Not on Trump but that people that vote for him won’t admit it. Shows you (particularly you) the lack of guts and conviction to stand up for what you believe in.

#102 will on 10.29.18 at 11:19 pm

read an interesting thing the other day about the left and the right. the guy was saying it’s not about left vs. right like in a Venn diagram anymore. he was saying that it’s one circle with the 2 party system occupying the centre and everybody else in a circle on the periphery. it’s the centre vs. the periphery. i thought that was interesting. it’s as if the left and the right are not opposed on key issues. sorry, no link.

#103 Ottawamike on 10.29.18 at 11:25 pm

DELETED

#104 will on 10.29.18 at 11:34 pm

blind auctions are bull shit

#105 Paul on 10.29.18 at 11:43 pm

#53 KLNR on 10.29.18 at 7:58 pm

and sadly some of trumps biggest cuts were to funding for mental illness.
————————————————————————————————
Sounds like you didn’t get your cheque. Well there always rattling your cup on the corner. But you already knew that.

#106 fishman on 10.29.18 at 11:47 pm

#9 proportional representation? v/s 1st past the post?
The thing to remember is not how you elect someone ; but how do you get rid of someone once you’ve elected them. Very difficult.
Party “A” gets 20% of vote & wins 10 seats outright out of say 100 . Therefore 10 more members must come from the Party. Elected by Party members at large. Not quite a “he who counts the votes ” moment . But close, with a “he who controls the Party’s membership list” moment.
The Party apparatchik’s will get a strangle hold on the membership list. Then they can control internal Party elections & Party candidates. All the elites from the different Party’s can become just like elites everywhere. Their common raison d’être; Maintain power & dispense patronage.
No more good guys-bad guys. Its the Party thats going to look after your best interests.

#107 BS on 10.29.18 at 11:53 pm

DELETED

#108 BS on 10.30.18 at 12:03 am

DELETED

#109 Marcus on 10.30.18 at 12:06 am

Nationalism for the win. Invest accordingly.

#110 Nancy Taylor on 10.30.18 at 12:08 am

DELETED

#111 MolsonBear on 10.30.18 at 12:20 am

#51 baloney Sandwitch on 10.29.18 at 7:55 pm
Not worried. Good time to load up on dividend paying low volatility stocks.
Get educated about the Coppock curve. I only start worrying if the curve hits zero. My rule is to stay long as long as this is above zero, go short if it dips below zero and then go long again when it start to turn up (from below zero).
https://i.imgur.com/Y9HTd2J.png

I wonder if you would be so kind as to share where and perhaps how I can run the same comparison as you have provided in your link?

#112 Jay Currie on 10.30.18 at 12:32 am

Following US politics fairly closely I would estimate 54 to 58 Republican Senate seats – which makes impeachment a pipe dream at trial.

The House is more interesting. My own betting line is that the Dems will win massively where the Dems usually win. But, at the margins, I don’t see the Dems picking up many seats, if any. The Kavanaugh thing hurt them badly. They looked deranged. The caravan thing will bring Republican and a fair number of indy voters into the fold. You don’t have to be anti-immigrant to be anti-illegal immigrant (a fact young Mr. Trudeau should bear in mind.)

Plus, and this is the wild card, Latinos and black people are beginning to wonder what the point of voting Dem actually is. Trump promised jobs. He has delivered jobs. To black and Latino communities as well as the heartland “deplorables”.

The Dems have to pick up 22 seats for a squeaker majority. I don’t see where they get them.

If the Republicans win the House and the Senate the market will explode – and not in a fake kinda bomb way.

Hang on tight…It’s gonna be huge.

#113 DON on 10.30.18 at 12:36 am

What are the leading indicators of an upcoming recession? And Horizon is 1 – 2 years or more? I am trying to figure this out. Seen a decrease in consumer spending on Newsweek recently. China’s housing market is experiencing sudden price declines. Trade wars, countries trading in national currencies, buying gold and preparing for a geopolitical shift.

The US may be farther away from recession, but what about Canada. Any deflation in housing can start the ball rolling and we will have to wait for the US to recover (from their cyclical recession) before we can.

Can housing deflate in Canada without causing a recession. Taxes aside this market was always destined to correct, things simply got UN affordable. The BoC spent the last two years warning people not to over borrow…now their message with respect to rates increases “well…we warned you”.

Like the Jaguar stated 500k is still a lot of debt for the average wage earner paying the bare minimum. 500k and no pool? 2 million in Van and no yard for a pool.

#114 Brier Barrington on 10.30.18 at 12:48 am

The above mentioned Bloomberg Article was written by this established gentlemen.

Read @MikeDorning twitter feeds, he’s clearly liberal and partisan.

If you follow MSM outlets and try and make political predictions of late you are going to lose the bet every time.

SM is going to earn treasured bragging rights come Nov 7th with his MEGA red wave prediction. Hope he returns to gloat.

#115 Pollster on 10.30.18 at 12:52 am

“No country has ‘unrestricted immigration.’ I thought more of you than that. – Garth”

I was referring to the caravan(s) and why it (they) must be stopped. Allowing the caravan(s) through could open the door to unrestricted immigration. Perhaps I should have been more clear. I did not mean the US has unrestricted immigration now. They have processes, criteria, laws and a judicial system set up to evaluate legal immigrants and asylum seekers, and 80% of the people who seek asylum get sent home (or at least elsewhere). But the purpose of the caravan is to bypass those routes to citizenship. That’s what I meant. Otherwise why would they all have to come together? Their intent is to overwhelm the boarder, enter illegally, and disperse into the population, leaving ICE with 7000+ people to track down, which could take years. It is an invasion plain and simple. And if it succeeds it will be met with more and more caravans. That is why it must be stopped, to send a clear message that this isn’t going to work, apply properly.

‘Invasion.’ You are as nuts as Trump. – Garth

#116 Frustrated Kiwi on 10.30.18 at 1:03 am

Auctions work OK in a hot housing market (when nothing is great). Typically here there is a three week “campaign” followed by the auction. Biggest down side is that all potential buyers have to do their own home inspection before the auction, which can get expensive. Amazing how many people you see bidding with agents running back of the envelope #s for them on the spot. Sensible buyers know their max before the bidding starts.

#117 Charles Ashman. on 10.30.18 at 1:14 am

#81 R Vanzo on 10.29.18 at 9:12 pm

Tell us about the ricin sent to republicans, tell us about a democrat Bernie bro shooting a republican basebal game. Two can play his game.

You are as demented as they. – Garth

##########

Where do these crazy people come from Garth?
Hey James, you are my new God.

Nice Job on chasing smoking man away. Don’t know what you did. Care to share?

Lotti on my tab bud….

#118 KelownaBusinessman on 10.30.18 at 1:21 am

Garth,

Your experiment with a blog on the internet is over. The crazy posts so outnumber the logical or enlightening posts, it is becoming impossible to stomach.

You really have to exercise the DELETE button much much more. With so much experience at this, you should be able to remove the trash in microseconds. Save us.

#119 Arun on 10.30.18 at 1:27 am

Canadians are amateurs when it comes to housing ponzi …its not Open auctions you need to import from professionals land down under…to further the ponzi import Negative gearing…

#120 Nonplused on 10.30.18 at 1:40 am

#84 Lottery Winner

“Your estimate of the payout on lotteries at 30% is way off, if you can apply intelligence to game selection and the games themselves. I and many others are known for routinely recouping 60-70% SPPB (small prize pay back) on selected lottery games.”

How do you make a living recouping 60-70% of what you spend? And even if you are saying you personally recoup 160-170% of what you spend, maybe because you have more skill than the bookies running Sports Select, somebody else is losing most of their money.

So two things come into play here. The first is that if you are playing online sports betting where you are actually betting against other gamblers, it is possible that you could be better at running the numbers and winning more often than not. That is similar to poker, where if you are good enough at knowing the odds and what to bet and mostly bluffing, you can win a lot of money by taking advantage of the inexperienced players. Pool sharks are no different. Sure, a pool shark could lose any given game due to luck, but he isn’t going to lose many of them. The second thing that comes into play is that even though a coin flip is 50/50 odds, it is not impossible to get heads 10 times in a row before your luck runs out. Technically, 100 times is possible, but would be extremely unlikely. The odds would be 0.5^100, so 7.88861E-31, but some captain of the soccer team might have done it and not even realized it.

Anyway you said you were going to share some tips on how to beat the lottery but all I got was “keep playing until you win”. Problem is most people never win more than they “play”. If they did there would be no lotteries, raffles, or Sports Select. But the games are designed to play on the human brain, where you only bet a little at a time so each loss seems like no big deal but when you do win you win big so you suddenly think this thing is a money maker. And then they parade the big winners around so everybody thinks “hey, that could be me for $5!”. It’s psychology at it’s best for evil purposes.

All such games, even the carnival games on the midway, are designed such that the odds of having to give away the giant pink teddy bear are so low as to make the game highly profitable to the house. But not so low as to have nobody lugging this huge stuffed toy around the fair grounds. That’s excellent advertising. People look at the girl carrying the giant pink teddy bear and then they look at the guy with her and say to themselves “I can probably throw better than he can”. Then they are parted with their money. Then, not having knocked the bottles over, they are embarrassed in front of their girlfriend, try again, and part with more money. If they keep at it long enough they will get a giant pink teddy bear for their girlfriend but not until way after they paid for it. That’s how these things work. And yes if you are a pro baseball pitcher you might be able to win the giant pink teddy every time but they’ll only let you play once and they consider it an advertising expense.

I have seen enough people gamble themselves into bankruptcy and divorce, all the while claiming they have a system to beat the VLT or know when the slot will pay out, and that they are up a lot of money but they don’t track it in a ledger, to know this practice is evil. There is a reason gambling used to be illegal. Some people are smart enough to beat the odds, we call them casino operators. Everyone else isn’t. If you want to profit on gambling, buy shares in a casino, don’t gamble in it.

#121 Re Ogopogo on 10.30.18 at 1:45 am

Surprised a negative post about Kelowna posted.

They usually get blocked these days. Could be wealthy clients that read this blog and are living in that area who feel it is an insult to know the truth about the crashing market in Kelowna after going up like Toronto. If Kelowna had a bigger population it would be on the UBS report on world wide housing bubbles at the top like Victoria. Price and un-affordability between Victoria and Kelowna are pretty close, and that ain’t a good thing if you are looking for a prosperous future. A million dollars isn’t nothing in those areas anymore. It is insanity.

#122 SoggyShorts on 10.30.18 at 1:51 am

#72 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 10.29.18 at 8:50 pm
#63 SoggyShorts on 10.29.18 at 8:29 pm
#48 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 10.29.18 at 7:41 pm

All votes do count but sometimes you don’t get your first choice. Democratic government is about compromise, no one gets everything that they want.

*****************
But if you have 2 parties with opposite views and goals with one of them winning 51%, then that isn’t the same as “not everyone gets their first choice.”
That isn’t even “compromise”
That is just losing and then not being represented at all.

I also have to disagree with your statement that “all votes do count” since they don’t count equally.
If party A gets 100% of the votes in 49% of the districts, and party B gets 51% of the votes in 51% of the districts then party B gets all of the power despite only getting ~26% of the votes.
So someone in a “swing” district has far more power than someone in a different one simply due to zip code.
Gerrymandering is horrendous in the US and the electoral college is deeply flawed as well.

On the Canuck side, our FPTP means that in each riding the winner of the seat could have 34% of the vote with the other 2 getting 33% each. If that happens, 66% of voters aren’t “getting their second choice” or “compromising” They are getting screwed.

In theory, your party could win a majority with as little as 15% of the popular vote as long as the votes were spread out the right way. That’s a little nutty.
Maybe the liberals getting 40% of the votes should mean that they get 40% of the seats?
Maybe the green party getting 3.5% of the votes should mean that they get 3.5% of the seats?

I don’t know if proportional representation wouldn’t have flaws that are even worse, but let’s not think that our(or their) system is perfect.

#123 Annek on 10.30.18 at 1:53 am

So many people I talk to in the GTA, presently, are so convinced that houses and condos will keep going up and it is your best investment.
They read the Star ( or perhaps do not follow news at all) and are oblivious to the data that you are reporting.
They are the “greater fools.
Houses and condos are still selling, albeit at a reduced rate and price. But if purchasers waited a bit longer, they would do so much better. But these are the guys that don’t see the trends. They operate with their blinkers on.
Thank Goodness that the smart ones are waiting.
Let the fools having purchased recently and / or purchasing now get burned. I guarantee that these people will never see the error in their ways unless they go bankrupt. They will keep functioning with their blinkers, thinking how smart they are. I look at them and shake my head.

#124 Jeremiah Chew on 10.30.18 at 1:57 am

The Trudeau government through stats can is collecting banking info on Canadians.

Has Smokey pissed them off so much that they are obsessed with finding his offshore automated forex trading account?

The guy is a fiction writer. More wasted taxpayer dollars chasing a fantasy.

#125 SoggyShorts on 10.30.18 at 2:26 am

#75 yvr_lurker on 10.29.18 at 9:03 pm
Hey my armchair is in Edmonton where my rent went down the last 2 years, and houses haven’t gone up in a decade, not TO.

Serious question:
Has it been confirmed that the “empty high-rise towers in downtown and ghost-neighborhoods on the west side” are predominantly foreign owned? I admit that I don’t follow YVR RE very closely because it’s just a spectator sport for me, but I don’t recall seeing any proof that those aren’t also Canadian’s fault.

For the money laundering casinos, 10m per year doesn’t impress me much. In 10 years 100m vs 360,000m in RE transactions seems a little weak too. Less than 0.03%

I just feel like jumping on the “It’s them foreigners takin our houses” bandwagon is easy and unproven- it’s been called hongcouver for 30 years, and I doubt that even locals can tell what kind of passport someone with Asian ancestry has.

#126 Willie Sutton on 10.30.18 at 6:28 am

DELETED

#127 Smoking Man is a Drunk Loser on 10.30.18 at 6:32 am

DELETED

#128 NoName on 10.30.18 at 6:59 am

#124 Jeremiah Chew on 10.30.18 at 1:57 am
The Trudeau government through stats can is collecting banking info on Canadians.

Has Smokey pissed them off so much that they are obsessed with finding his offshore automated forex trading account?

The guy is a fiction writer. More wasted taxpayer dollars chasing a fantasy.

There are more sinister things shared around with out our knowledge, lets say health recordings, “randomly” selected people for stats can. to see their transactions its not big deal.

What is ts interesting that banks are aking stand in “protecting” their customers while they are blinding same them dry with fees… my account statred wit all unlimited and free bank draft for 9.99 now same charge but fraction of service, when i go to withrowal 20 feom my chq, they will remind that i can do that on atm so i dont have to wait in line.
And that one is funny.

I don’t se what is this so big of a deal with some people, especially when you know tbat Visa shares its transaction with google who is contacting them its users…

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.technologyreview.com/s/607938/google-now-tracks-your-credit-card-purchases-and-connects-them-to-its-online-profile-of-you/amp/

If all that botber you use cash, very simple go to bank make a withdrawal and when they ask you why you are witrowing all cahs tell them iam recovering drug user. After that they won’t ask you anymore.

#129 Capt. Serious on 10.30.18 at 7:22 am

#122 SoggyShorts on 10.30.18 at 1:51 am

In theory, your party could win a majority with as little as 15% of the popular vote as long as the votes were spread out the right way. That’s a little nutty.
Maybe the liberals getting 40% of the votes should mean that they get 40% of the seats?
Maybe the green party getting 3.5% of the votes should mean that they get 3.5% of the seats?

I don’t know if proportional representation wouldn’t have flaws that are even worse, but let’s not think that our(or their) system is perfect.

For one, we’ve been using FPTP since confederation and I don’t see our country in smoking ruins.
Secondly, in proportional representation you may have an MP representing your riding who has a very weak association to your geographic location. How is that better?
Thirdly, proportional representation tends to spawn more fringe parties, which of course can split the vote and lead to surprisingly outcomes in who forms the government.
There is no panacea, only trade-offs.
Best may actually be a mixed system, where the number of members is adjusted by the popular vote mix, so you get a kind of hybrid of local representation and national representation. This is more or less what Germany uses.

#130 Fish on 10.30.18 at 7:47 am

Morneau leaning toward ‘targeted measure’ to boost corporate investment – not tax cut

Source says minister looking at speeding up capital investment write-offs, among other ideas

Karina Roman · CBC News · Posted: Sep 12, 2018 6:47 PM ET | Last Updated: September 12

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/morneau-trump-tax-competitiveness-1.4821182

#131 dharma bum on 10.30.18 at 8:18 am

#39 Nonplused

My point is that any time you see someone in front of you buying lottery tickets at the convenience store or going into a casino, you are looking at someone who probably can’t figure out for themselves how much they can borrow without going broke.
——————————————————————-

Lotteries and Casinos are a tax on the poor.
It’s the greatest government sanctioned strategy ever.
Better than consumption taxes (sales tax).

It provides low-lifes with the never ending illusion of hope, disguising the fact that their lives are truly hopeless.

It gets them through, psychologically, while enriching the coffers of the governments that approve them (i.e., OLC).

#132 jess on 10.30.18 at 8:27 am

HMRC will be made a preferred creditor in insolvencies, Chancellor Philip Hammond announced today.

The government will end the practice of purchasing services through offshore countries and introduce a restriction on the small and medium sized enterprise research and development tax credits scheme.

Monday 29 October 2018 4:37pm
HMRC to be made preferred creditor in tax avoidance crackdown

http://www.cityam.com/267570/hmrc-made-preferred-creditor-tax-avoidance-crackdowntax

=

wealth
U.K. Government Renews Its Crackdown on Offshore Tax Evasion
By Benjamin Stupples
October 29, 2018, 3:05 PM EDT Updated on October 30, 2018, 5:32 AM EDT

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-29/u-k-government-refreshes-its-crackdown-on-offshore-tax-evasion

#133 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.30.18 at 8:34 am

@#84 Lottery Winner
Re your “winning system”
+++++++

You forgot to provide a link to “How you can make $10,000 per week selling windshield wiper blades from the comfort of your own home…”

#134 The Blue Wave on 10.30.18 at 8:38 am

Trump should accept the fact that one cannot swim upstream forever. Consensus ‘trumps’ truth every time.
Best to leave politics to the politicians and puppets, business savvy has no place there. I wouldn’t fall off my chair if I was told they had a cell waiting for him next to Steve Avery’s.

#135 OttawaMike on 10.30.18 at 8:47 am

#103 Ottawamike on 10.29.18 at 11:25

Not my post.

#136 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 10.30.18 at 9:00 am

#122 SoggyShorts on 10.30.18 at 1:51 am

#72 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 10.29.18 at 8:50 pm
#63 SoggyShorts on 10.29.18 at 8:29 pm
#48 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 10.29.18 at 7:41 pm

All votes do count but sometimes you don’t get your first choice. Democratic government is about compromise, no one gets everything that they want.
*****************
But if you have 2 parties with opposite views and goals with one of them winning 51%, then that isn’t the same as “not everyone gets their first choice.”
That isn’t even “compromise”
That is just losing and then not being represented at all.

I also have to disagree with your statement that “all votes do count” since they don’t count equally.
If party A gets 100% of the votes in 49% of the districts, and party B gets 51% of the votes in 51% of the districts then party B gets all of the power despite only getting ~26% of the votes.
So someone in a “swing” district has far more power than someone in a different one simply due to zip code.
Gerrymandering is horrendous in the US and the electoral college is deeply flawed as well.

On the Canuck side, our FPTP means that in each riding the winner of the seat could have 34% of the vote with the other 2 getting 33% each. If that happens, 66% of voters aren’t “getting their second choice” or “compromising” They are getting screwed.

In theory, your party could win a majority with as little as 15% of the popular vote as long as the votes were spread out the right way. That’s a little nutty.
Maybe the liberals getting 40% of the votes should mean that they get 40% of the seats?
Maybe the green party getting 3.5% of the votes should mean that they get 3.5% of the seats?

I don’t know if proportional representation wouldn’t have flaws that are even worse, but let’s not think that our(or their) system is perfect.
………………………………..

Biggest crock of shyt I’ve ever read on this blog. Perhaps you have diaper rash of the brain.

#137 Gravy Train on 10.30.18 at 9:15 am

#69 AB Boxster on 10.29.18 at 8:47 pm
Another conspiracy nut. Go away. – Garth

“Sorry, Garth, but you are wrong on this one.[…]”

GAB is a sewer. Don’t crawl in. – Garth

What part of ‘Go away’ do you not understand, genius! Go listen to Alex Jones, Sean Hannity and other whacko alt-right (far-right) nutjobs for your favourite conspiracy theories. You won’t find them in any of Garth’s blogs. :)

#138 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.30.18 at 9:27 am

@#135 OttawaMike
Re #103 Ottawamike

“Not my post….”

+++++

I dunno.
Our hand writing experts detected some similarities in the style and font……

#139 Dolce Vita on 10.30.18 at 9:35 am

Very good Blog today on borrowing, our pile of debt and on the US economy which is not going into recession any time soon and factual.

On our pile of debt, Canadian’s feeling some pain but nothing catastrophic yet since Canadian Consumer Insolvency rates are at a 7 year low (15 year low for ON):

https://www.ic.gc.ca/eic/site/bsf-osb.nsf/eng/br01820.html

Heck, even Joe Debtor is in pretty good shape (yet, vulnerable they say…sensationalists I say):

https://www.hoyes.com/press/joe-debtor/

As usual, income earners below median income are the most vulnerable. Nothing new there.

Why I take a dim view of these Armageddon <$200/month away from financial oblivion, et. al., polls. Armageddon can only come once. These polls/studies will end up like "the boy who cried wolf".

I do believe what will happen is a RE price crash back to the long term average price trendline (to do that, prices will have to crash in the 40% range).

Interest rate increases and Gov't regulations will see that thru (exacerbated by the latter in YVR).

I say it will happen quicker than most expect due to psychology, you need only review what happened in 416 land in 2017 as evidence.

#140 Bob on 10.30.18 at 9:53 am

Trump will win the senate and gain a couple extra seats. He will win the house by a couple seats as well. He will go on to win the 2020 election as well. Libtards will be furious and continue to blame him for all sorts of problems that will be non of his doing. For example, if there is a plague of locusts across the land, the rivers all turn to blood, and all the first born babies meet and untimely visit by a certain angel, Trump will get the blame. He is making America great again. Markets are resilient and will rebound and then go on to grow to even higher levels. Stay invested.

Any more posts using puerile terms such as ‘Libtards’ or ‘Repugnicans’ will be deleted. I have had it with you children. – Garth

#141 AB Boxster on 10.30.18 at 10:23 am

#97 Smartalox on 10.29.18 at 10:51 pm

Free speech means you can speak your mind without fear of arrest by the state. Period.

—————-
Huh.

I guess that’s why the left is defending the ‘free speech’ rights of protesters in the NFL.

Cuz the NFL is an obvious department of the government.

Or the left believes that that they can shout down speakers on universities, (pretty much all government funded) that they disagree with.
Cuz universities have never been places to learn about different points of view.

Or the left defending the actions of ANTIFA, including real violence against others who wish to exercise these rights peacefully.

Because the left believes that any and all actions are acceptable to defend their beliefs (no matter how screwed up they are), and that any speech that the left disagrees with is violence against them, so that it is appropriate to respond with real physical violence against those they disagree with.

But its easy to go both ways.
The nutty left shuts down the right because they disagree with their beliefs.

The right will shut down the left just the same.

Good luck with a society based on your sort of logic.

But the left has never been accused, by anyone, anywhere of having any sort of intelligence or decision making based upon logic.

As long as your feelings are not hurt, and you get your participation ribbon, then life’s good baby.

#142 TurnerNation on 10.30.18 at 10:44 am

Humm PIMCO Global Opportunities fund PGI.UN dropped as much as 15% in past two days on TSX
SM??

Why would you own that? – Garth

#143 Remembrancer on 10.30.18 at 11:18 am

#128 NoName on 10.30.18 at 6:59 am
#124 Jeremiah Chew on 10.30.18 at 1:57 am
The Trudeau government through stats can is collecting banking info on Canadians.
———————————————————–
The big deal is that every time this data – potentially all your financial data, gets moved from one place to another it has the potential to be exposed either in transit or at its new resting place… Let’s face it, neither Libs nor Cons nor government in general has a particularly good track record with new IT projects which this would be…

#144 Ponnaps on 10.30.18 at 11:34 am

Garth,

1. Put out a list of hate words, phrases that generally finds its way in obnoxious comments.
2. Ask your developer to script a filter that automatically discards comments with those keys
3. People will know better not to use those keys leading to better quality of comments
4. Publish an updated list as and when needed…

#1 and #4 are actually optional. Your blog your rules, the obnoxious dont need to know.. frustrate them into better behaviour..

#145 AB Boxster on 10.30.18 at 11:37 am

#137 Gravy Train on 10.30.18 at 9:15 am


What part of ‘Go away’ do you not understand, genius! Go listen to Alex Jones, Sean Hannity and other whacko alt-right (far-right) nutjobs for your favourite conspiracy theories. You won’t find them in any of Garth’s blogs. :)

——————-
Are you not tired of sucking up to Garth yet?
I mean, it’s getting a little embarrassing, don’t you think?

FFS, at least have something interesting to say.
Just mimicking what Hillary and CNN believe, really makes you sound like a bad recording.

Hillary good.
Trump bad.

Obama Saint.
Trump Devil.

Yeah we get it.

It really looks bad that you don’t have an original thought of your own.

At least make an attempt at posting something intelligent.

#146 yvr_lurker on 10.30.18 at 11:40 am

#125
One brave soul documenting this is Andy Yan, Prof at SFU…

https://www.macleans.ca/economy/realestateeconomy/andy-yan-the-analyst-who-exposed-vancouvers-real-estate-disaster

The link above is a brief summary of his findings with available data. Gov’t is now only collecting better data. One in five new condos bought by non-residents…. just keep increasing the supply-side the developers say… Believe what you want….

#147 Remembrancer on 10.30.18 at 11:42 am

#47 IHCTD9 on 10.29.18 at 7:39 pm
I’m starting to wonder if schools should start teaching mandatory courses on hardening ones’ self against the BS on the www.
—————————————————————-
Yes, to go further mandatory courses should be on, critical analysis, basic math including statistics and micro/macro econ concepts along w/ media awareness and hardening ones’ self identify to not be influenced by a forest of self-serving sites that any kook with a WordPress account can conjure up.

In Ontario for example, while there is a small “c” conservative preoccupation with one element of the health curriculum which comes off as thinly veiled intolerance (anyone who actually reads the elementary docs available on the gov site can see through the hysterics) you can stop taking math at Grade 11 and graduate, but you need grade 12 English with its mixture of mid-20th century American Lit and a Shakespeare play. Got no issue with the bard myself, but maybe sneak in a resume and cover letter writing requirement there somewhere along with public speaking with job interview skills…

Politicians of all stripes say nice things about preparing for the economy of the future but are short on actions to help future-proof the citizenry…

#148 Ex-Cowtown on 10.30.18 at 11:50 am

#101 John on 10.29.18 at 11:01 pm
EX COWTOWN “I smiled and nodded in agreement, but I’d vote for him in a heartbeat rather than our gutless Soy Boy with the matchy-matchy sockies.”

I agree with you 100%. Not on Trump but that people that vote for him won’t admit it. Shows you (particularly you) the lack of guts and conviction to stand up for what you believe in.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Not really. Just because I didn’t pick a family function to shred my clueless family members means that I’m tolerant. I may not agree with their opinions but there’s a time and place for soul crushing debate. I’ve shredded many, many people in my time and when I get going it ain’t a pretty process. My wife actually commented on my restraint. I must be turning into a softie these days.

#149 PastThePeak on 10.30.18 at 11:58 am

#9 Yvrdood on 10.29.18 at 5:16 pm
#48 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 10.29.18 at 7:41 pm
#106 fishman on 10.29.18 at 11:47 pm
#106 fishman on 10.29.18 at 11:47 pm
#129 Capt. Serious on 10.30.18 at 7:22 am
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I fully agree with ol’ 4 Fingers. The only electoral reform that is worth undertaking is one similar to France’s, where a first round (if no outright majority) whittles down to a contest of 2 in the 2nd round, where a majority will be had.

The only downside is that an election takes longer, but so what. It only happens every 4 years.

This is also similar to the system that most (all?) Canadian political parties use to elect their leaders (it can be multi round as there is no official only top 2 in second round, but the principle is the same). The issue with party leadership contests is f*cking around with who gets to vote & how (last minute purchased memberships essentially). Other than that, it works well.

That this simple system (which gets you one MP per riding, voted on by the people of that riding, with a majority of the vote) is not the NDP or Liberals want in electoral reform only goes to show you that they want to make the system more bureaucratic to improve their chances.

I will say it unequivocally – proportional representation at the federal level will be the end of Canada.

#150 kbeank on 10.30.18 at 12:03 pm

What’s going on with prefs? Bought more CPD last week and it’s down 2 more percent.

Not sure why the prefs are falling? Sure the bank stocks are a bit lower, but we did not see this sort of reaction during the Feb correction. I will rebalance soon if it keeps falling.

#151 Al Pek on 10.30.18 at 12:09 pm

Garth,

I don’t understand why preferred shares have been dropping the last month, down another 1%+ today. Shouldn’t they be increasing in a rising interest rate environment?

Al

Just relax and enjoy the dividend. They will recover and these are not assets you buy for capital growth. – Garth

#152 Steven Rowlandson on 10.30.18 at 12:14 pm

Given enough time and the ice age cycle all this crime and nonsense is going to look like a total waste of time and effort…..

#153 Jack on 10.30.18 at 12:16 pm

Garth, with interest rate rising, are preferred shares doomed?

Of course not. – Garth

#154 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.30.18 at 12:41 pm

@#149 past the peak
” proportional representation at the federal level will be the end of Canada.”
++++
Total agreement.
First Past the Post with “run off” elections for a clear majority.
Nothing more simple than that.

#155 jess on 10.30.18 at 12:48 pm

https://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/prog.php?parent=general-electric

GE hit with new investigations from SEC and Justice Department

By Matt Egan, CNN Business

Updated 11:40 AM ET, Tue October 30, 2018
GE changed our lives. Why is it struggling?

https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/30/business/ge-investigation-justice-sec/index.html

GE warns its subprime mortgage unit could file for bankruptcy
by Matt Egan @MattEganCNN May 2, 2018: 4:58 PM ET

https://money.cnn.com/2018/05/02/investing/ge-subprime-mortgage-bankruptcy-wmc/index.html

#156 KLNR on 10.30.18 at 12:50 pm

@#148 Ex-Cowtown on 10.30.18 at 11:50 am
#101 John on 10.29.18 at 11:01 pm
EX COWTOWN “I smiled and nodded in agreement, but I’d vote for him in a heartbeat rather than our gutless Soy Boy with the matchy-matchy sockies.”

I agree with you 100%. Not on Trump but that people that vote for him won’t admit it. Shows you (particularly you) the lack of guts and conviction to stand up for what you believe in.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Not really. Just because I didn’t pick a family function to shred my clueless family members means that I’m tolerant. I may not agree with their opinions but there’s a time and place for soul crushing debate. I’ve shredded many, many people in my time and when I get going it ain’t a pretty process. My wife actually commented on my restraint. I must be turning into a softie these days.
__________________________
I get the feeling nobody really wants to be around you.

#157 Shawn Allen on 10.30.18 at 12:51 pm

Is it Ever Okay to Spend the RRSP Refund?

Sort of… Imagine you have $10,000 cash. $4000 is earmarked and budgeted for a long-planed and well-deserved vacation. $6000 is for investment.

You decide to put all $10,000 into an RRSP and get a $4000 refund at your 40% refund. You have effectively temporarily borrowed your own vacation money.

The $4000 refund replaces the borrowed vacation fund and you spend it.

This a perfectly good scenario. In “form” you have spent your refund. In “substance” the refund has gone to fund $4000 of your $10,000 RRSP (You only had $6000 to invest of your own and that is your own net investment cost int he RRSP). The $4000 or 40% share of “your” RRSP funded by the refund will then grow and will fully fund the tax and any associated old age claw back as long as your all-in marginal tax rate remains 40% at the time of withdrawal.

If as will often be the case your income drops by 30% in retirement (inflation adjusted) you may well find yourself in a lower tax bracket and the refund will have grown to more than fully fund your tax hit upon withdrawal. Meaning that not only will your $6000 net cost have grown completely tax free but the 40% refund share of your RRSP eventually becomes partly yours as well which you could think of as negative taxation. Believe it or not!

But by the way, never think of “your” RRSP as all yours. It is pre-tax money and you should remember that about 30 to 40% is most likely going to go to the taxman. “Your” RRSP is likely worth 60 to 70 cents on the dollar after tax – but the missing 30 to 40 cents was funded by the refund so all is good.

Of course if your marginal tax rate in retirement is a lot higher than 40% then you will face a big tax on your share of the RRSP over and above what the refund funds. There are certainly scenarios where that occurs especially if you made and claimed an RRSP contribution when your marginal tax rate was very low.

#158 KLNR on 10.30.18 at 12:54 pm

@#145 AB Boxster on 10.30.18 at 11:37 am
#137 Gravy Train on 10.30.18 at 9:15 am

What part of ‘Go away’ do you not understand, genius! Go listen to Alex Jones, Sean Hannity and other whacko alt-right (far-right) nutjobs for your favourite conspiracy theories. You won’t find them in any of Garth’s blogs. :)

——————-
Are you not tired of sucking up to Garth yet?
I mean, it’s getting a little embarrassing, don’t you think?

FFS, at least have something interesting to say.
Just mimicking what Hillary and CNN believe, really makes you sound like a bad recording.

Hillary good.
Trump bad.

Obama Saint.
Trump Devil.

Yeah we get it.

It really looks bad that you don’t have an original thought of your own.

At least make an attempt at posting something intelligent.
____________________________

no seriously, go hang out with smokingman.
get lost already

#159 LL on 10.30.18 at 1:00 pm

“Free pizza with house purchase!”

Les temps sont dur, c’est vrai!

Every one is having hard time!

#160 Biddy on 10.30.18 at 1:08 pm

The pattern of referring to anyone who doesn’t consume the majority narrative as ‘crazy’ ‘deplorable’ ‘nuts’ etc. is what brings down the tone of this comments section.

It also makes people with informed opinions rather resentful.

It also reinforces the very conviction that too many minds remain closed to some pretty dark truths, which looks like head-in-the-sand fear.

It’s not crazy to see true motivations and beneficiaries for what they are: political actions that aims to benefit a desperate opposition party.

What’s deplorable is the depths that opposition party will go to to create fear, division, hatred etc.

Garth I love your blog, but you need a second one. On this one, you are fearful of allowing political discussion and facts you find unpleasant, so you denigrate those posters with your great wit. This sadly has you coming off as biased, which does you a great disservice.

I am done with the mindless partisanship, lack of civility and endless lies, misrepresentations and divisive crap being spewed here. The election of Donald Trump marked the beginning of a time when people think their closet prejudices, hates and fabrications are suddenly legitimate and mainstream because the Big Guy is saying the same thing. Well, tough. Go spray elsewhere. It will not be tolerated here. – Garth

#161 jess on 10.30.18 at 1:17 pm

As American Public Turned To Opioids, OxyContin’s Founder Tapped A Private Swiss Bank

Mortimer Sackler’s family’s files were among 60,000 leaked documents that make up Swiss Leaks. Here’s what we found.

https://www.icij.org/investigations/swiss-leaks/as-american-public-turned-to-opioids-oxycontins-founder-tapped-a-private-swiss-bank/

Taxman criticised for letting Sackler companies ‘dodge millions in corporation tax’

David Cohen
Friday 25 May 2018 11:50
Rudy Giuliani won deal for OxyContin maker to continue sales of drug behind opioid deaths

The US government secured a criminal conviction against Purdue Pharma in the mid-2000s but failed to curb sales of the drug after Giuliani reached a deal to avoid a bar on Purdue doing business

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/may/22/rudy-giuliani-opioid-epidemic-oxycontin-purdue-pharma

B.C. alleges 20 years of deception in opioid lawsuit
Andrea Woo and Karen Howlett
Vancouver
Published August 29, 2018
Updated August 30, 2018
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-bc-launches-proposed-class-action-lawsuit-against-opioid-manufacturers/

============
Opioid billionaire granted patent for addiction treatment

https://www.pharmamanufacturing.com/industrynews/2018/oxycontin-maker-patents-drug-to-treat-opioid-addiction/

Taxman criticised for letting Sackler companies ‘dodge millions in corporation tax’

David Cohen
Friday 25 May 2018 11:50

#162 GW on 10.30.18 at 1:34 pm

DELETED

#163 LL on 10.30.18 at 1:36 pm

# 150

..”What’s going on with prefs? Bought more CPD last week and it’s down 2 more percent”….

Only down 2%? They are doing well! LOL

#164 David on 10.30.18 at 1:42 pm

Another set of questions today about falling values of CPD – basically, why are higher rates not driving up preferreds?

Depends on the details in the prospectus. Here is one example:

trp-pr.c pays 2.15% on $25.00 face value.

Today, trp-pr.c trades for $16 but a few weeks ago it was $18.00. Why did it fall when interest rates went up?

At $18 it payed 3.15% interest. You can park your cash in a HISA at 2.75% interest. That HISA will pay more as rates increase, but trp-pr.c has a fixed rate until 2021.

Buyers avoiding risks and stagnant interest rate in trp-pr.c can get good rates elsewhere, so they do. Prices fall to attract buyers.

The magic happens at reset time, when trp-pr.c pays 3.61% (based on todays goc 5-yr rate of 2.3% + 128bp) on $25.00 face. At today’s share price and 5-yr rate … that’ll be 5.6%. That’s sure to drive up its price as we near reset date, especially if the 5-yr rates keep rising.

CPD owns a lot of rate-resets and CPD will benefit. You’d have to look at a lot of prospectuses to get the whole picture.

#165 AB Boxster on 10.30.18 at 1:45 pm

#158 KLNR on 10.30.18 at 12:54 pm

At least make an attempt at posting something intelligent.

———————–
Ditto.

#166 Stephane Bergeron on 10.30.18 at 1:57 pm

Sending love Garth,

I see the world is becoming crazy, from the shit you are receiving in the comments. I have not read them in over a year, it has come a long way from the time of Harper extremist, those lovable guys compared to these dangerous delusional ‘people’… stay sane, the strong and open-minded will prevail through all this, one hopes.

#167 Leo Trollstoy on 10.30.18 at 2:38 pm

So… what did I miss?

Lol

#168 Biddy on 10.30.18 at 2:40 pm

I am done with the mindless partisanship, lack of civility and endless lies, misrepresentations and divisive crap being spewed here. The election of Donald Trump marked the beginning of a time when people think their closet prejudices, hates and fabrications are suddenly legitimate and mainstream because the Big Guy is saying the same thing. Well, tough. Go spray elsewhere. It will not be tolerated here. – Garth

Understood, although I don’t think I’ve ever been partisan or uncivil online or elsewhere.

For what it’s worth, I don’t care for the personality of Trump, but it can’t be denied that he’s brilliant modern politician.

I’ve thought what I think long before he came along, and he’s changed none of my opinions which are well researched, evidence based, not prejudiced, and certainly not hateful to anyone on either side of any political debate.

But to quote Philip K. Dick, “Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn’t go away”

People might not want to believe the motivations and machinations behind many deplorable headline creating actions, but that doesn’t make them untrue.

In parting, Garth I consider you a near-national Canadian treasure (do we have those?) when you speak truth. When you dither, the heart sinks.

#169 Paul on 10.30.18 at 3:00 pm

Tell us about the pipe bombs. – Garth

What?
You mean the fake bombs designed not to detonate?

They were designed to terrorize people. There is no excuse. Don’t even try. – Garth

#170 James on 10.30.18 at 3:24 pm

Markets will be watching this intensely, as you might imagine. Trump poured gas on equities with a big tax cut, laxer regulations and protectionist tariffs. But he’s scared markets with his one-man trade war, worsening relations with China and now a runaway budget deficit. (It happened again Monday – stocks sold off on word Trump will impose duties on remaining Chinese goods).
___________________________________________
Just flew back in from the UK for a meeting.
I can tell you that the Brits are waiting to see Donald J Trump fall flat on his large derrière after poking the Asian Tiger in the eye.
China has all the time in the world, they can wait it out until Trump and his raving lunatic fringe are dust. The Chinese are not stupid people and the problem is that Trump and his sycophants are truly racist believing that the Chinese people are his to be conquered. He is also devoid of the fact that the 3rd largest market is now China after the EU. The USA needs both markets to succeed.

#171 Dave on 10.30.18 at 3:44 pm

It is not only the realtors doing blind auctions. This is common place in B.C. with Judges doing blind auctions on foreclosure listings. So if we have Judges doing it, how can we blame the Realtors?

#172 NoName on 10.30.18 at 3:45 pm

@Rembrancer

Now that iam done wit my grapes ill type this for you.

I am aware what are you saying, but question for youd, did you read that article i posted a link to?

It was been done already by corporationsare doing it gov. Is just late to game. Bank is already doing that, why trust bank or corporation but not gov. They both want more money from you to them, that is all what that transactions are abot, how to optimize tax based on how people spend their money.

Years 2006-2007 ago i am talking to co-worker and she was telling about movie some kid who is helping his disabled friend by carring him aroud on his shoulders and helping him to find his father or something loke that. So couldn’t remember the name i told her just to gargel it some thing will.come.op possibly title. You try copy and paste bold, now gargler much better. Conversation stopped there. Few day later she comes to me all stressed out hownshe is seeing advertising for that move on “any” page she goes to.
So i sked he does she knows about cookies, she didnt, so i told her just delete cookies that will help a bit so you dont see them being blatent tracking you around, but they are tracking you anyways.

Here it is small window in tracking. Anf if that is spooky for you try using forefox focus it will.does a same make you feel not tracket, but they’ll track anyways.

We can have discussion about vpns and onions but let’s not forget that tney are put there by gov, if you cannot live your house through linux box and couple fireals to scrab ans much data as they can befor you hit vpn, you are pooched.

And one more thing your router firewall is set sot it keeps anything from outside out but not preventing anything from inside going out.

Maybe if gov. sea so many chq acc in overdraft who know maybe they would lower taxes, ya i know that is funny though.

http://webkay.robinlinus.com/

#173 IHCTD9 on 10.30.18 at 3:49 pm

160 Biddy on 10.30.18 at 1:08 pm

The pattern of referring to anyone who doesn’t consume the majority narrative as ‘crazy’ ‘deplorable’ ‘nuts’ etc. is what brings down the tone of this comments section.

It also makes people with informed opinions rather resentful.

It also reinforces the very conviction that too many minds remain closed to some pretty dark truths, which looks like head-in-the-sand fear.

It’s not crazy to see true motivations and beneficiaries for what they are: political actions that aims to benefit a desperate opposition party.

What’s deplorable is the depths that opposition party will go to to create fear, division, hatred etc.
____

No one who can’t admit that both ends of the political spectrum are actively expectorating the same well composted political humus all over the place – is thinking reasonably.

Don’t mind the details. You have all the power: your vote and your taxes.

If you don’t like them, vote against them, and reduce your tax remittances.

#174 KLNR on 10.30.18 at 4:11 pm

@#169 Paul on 10.30.18 at 3:00 pm
Tell us about the pipe bombs. – Garth

What?
You mean the fake bombs designed not to detonate?

They were designed to terrorize people. There is no excuse. Don’t even try. – Garth
________________________

Bwahahaha.

but, but, but they weren’t ‘actual’ bombs

#175 KLNR on 10.30.18 at 4:13 pm

@#168 Biddy on 10.30.18 at 2:40 pm

For what it’s worth, I don’t care for the personality of Trump, but it can’t be denied that he’s brilliant modern politician.
___________________________

LOL

#176 Dolce Vita on 10.30.18 at 4:14 pm

The seeds of discontent in todays Comments.

Hard to put a finger on it but I think it is an unhealthy Canadian preoccupation with American politics (understandable due to geography and economics).

SOMEONE HAS I believe PUT A FINGER ON IT.

Even in the America’s outward seemingly polarized, word seething and contemptable culture, it is that the VAST MAJORITY ARE NOT LIKE THIS, enough to form a quorum.

If you believe a Harvard Prof. on Government, Yascha Mounk a declared “Lefty”, he has gotten on board with a recent study of the aforementioned American phenomenon (“Hidden Tribes: A Study of America’s Polarized Landscape” – your usual exhaustive study):

1. 25% of Americans are traditional or devoted conservatives, and their views are far outside the American mainstream.

2. 8% of Americans are progressive activists, and their views are even less typical. As a group: progressive activists are much more likely to be rich, highly educated—and white. They are nearly twice as likely as the average to make more than $100,000 a year.

3. 67% of Americans who don’t belong to either extreme constitute an “exhausted majority.” Their members “share a sense of fatigue with our polarized national conversation, a willingness to be flexible in their political viewpoints, and a lack of voice in the national conversation.”

Of the 2/3 Majority, 80 percent believe that “political correctness is a problem in our country.” Even young people are uncomfortable with it, including 74 percent ages 24 to 29, and 79 percent under age 24. On this particular issue, the WOKE are in a clear MINORITY across all ages.

And about the 8% Progressives, he says:

“…not so much genuine concern for social justice as THE PREENING DISPLAY OF CULTURAL SUPERIORITY.”

He self deprecates himself as a Progressive (and presumably the misery they have wrought on the 67%):

“…a decent approximation for a particular intellectual milieu to which I also belong: politically engaged, highly educated, left-leaning Americans—the kinds of people, in other words, who are in charge of universities, edit the nation’s most important newspapers and magazines, and advise Democratic political candidates on their campaigns.”

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2018/10/large-majorities-dislike-political-correctness/572581/

– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –

I agree with you Garth on Trump the person but careful on being too dismissive of the 25% traditional, devoted Conservatives that Comment here.

You risk alienating the 67% exhausted majority with your Political Correctness if we believe that “tribal” breakdown is mirrored in Canada.

I believe it is. I also believe in your being genuine.

And thank you for using the words far right as opposed to alt-right. That did not go unnoticed.

Far enough, but the 25% of right-wingers (at least on this blog) try to bully opponents and dominate the conservation, as if they were the majority. They are not. Many are intimidated from commenting as a result. Which is what the ‘free speech’ advocates apparently want. Free for them. – Garth

#177 KLNR on 10.30.18 at 4:16 pm

@#165 AB Boxster on 10.30.18 at 1:45 pm
________________________________

At least make an attempt at posting something intelligent.

———————–

thats pretty rich coming from you nutter

#178 jess on 10.30.18 at 4:19 pm

sketchy

https://www.thestar.com/news/investigations/2018/09/27/this-condo-developer-collected-millions-in-deposits-and-hasnt-built-anything.html

#179 Nineteen84 on 10.30.18 at 4:20 pm

“One Free Pizza per Week Until Mortgage all Paid”,

might do it for me.

ONE lousy pizza as an incentive??

Come on RE marketing geniuses – do your math!

1984

#180 dave on 10.30.18 at 4:27 pm

“You sound like you’re 11. Violence and hate do not justify violence and hate.” – Garth

….true but Garth, you only point out one side and never mention the other…go ahead and dislike Trump all you want but let’s be balanced with the commentary…

#181 Ubul on 10.30.18 at 4:48 pm

#177 KLNR on 10.30.18 at 4:16 pm

@#165 AB Boxster on 10.30.18 at 1:45 pm
________________________________

At least make an attempt at posting something intelligent.

———————–

thats pretty rich coming from you nutter

You keep proving him right and you don’t even notice.

#182 Dolce Vita on 10.30.18 at 4:58 pm

“bully…dominate the conservation, as if they were the majority. They are not.”

Garth, as the study called them: “traditional or devoted conservatives”.

A polite way of saying and what I say: “You cannot reason with fanatics.”

Still, good you do not back down to them then again, you held Public Office at the highest of levels and we “the exhausted majority” need to see someone such as yourself stand up to such biased nonsense.

Still Garth, do not go to PC, you know why per the article.

Now, if I can only get you to say LEFT, CENTERE and RIGHT (and call the rest out of the mainstream of thinking) and not use silly American terms such as Antifa, alt-right, woke, etc. non-sensical labels for the simple of mind (the latter not you, so I say, don’t slum it with the prose of American MSM and their brainwashed acolytes North of the border: CBC, CTV, Global et. al.).

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BTW, darn, are you ever a quick read and quick thinking in your response.

Heck, I just hit Submit and PRESTO there he is…

Have a good night Garth, take heart and Ciao d’Italia.

PS: you meant “fair enogh”, you type “far enough” then again, having read the Comments today I hear you.

#183 R Vanzo on 10.30.18 at 7:08 pm

But not nearly as demented as you. And you’re wrong, as you usually are.

#184 Pollster on 10.31.18 at 4:27 am

DELETED

#185 Nonplused on 10.31.18 at 4:30 am

I’m as nuts as Trump? Well if we are going to trade insults I’s say you are as nuts as Soros. I’d rather be as nuts as Trump.

#186 Gravy Train on 10.31.18 at 8:50 am

#183 R Vanzo on 10.30.18 at 7:08 pm
“But not nearly as demented as you. And you’re wrong, as you usually are.”

#184 Pollster on 10.31.18 at 4:27 am
DELETED

#185 Nonplused on 10.31.18 at 4:30 am
“I’m as nuts as Trump? Well if we are going to trade insults I’s say you are as nuts as Soros. I’d rather be as nuts as Trump.”

Does this sudden self-awareness mean that the three of you won’t be posting here anymore? Smokey appears to have packed it in; hopefully, we can add AB Boxster to the list. :)

#187 Remembrancer on 10.31.18 at 11:13 am

#172 NoName on 10.30.18 at 3:45 pm
@Rembrancer

I am aware what are you saying, but question for youd, did you read that article i posted a link to?

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Yes. Apples and Oranges. If you are smart of enough to be quoting tracking cookies and the like, you are smart enough to know that a systems chance of failure increases dramatically with added complexity… The argument that at least some of this is commercially done already rings hollow. BTW as a matter of policy I never click through one of those to purchase. Will go directly to the site separately, out of spite for suggestive sells just like I never get the XL fries if I didn’t order the XL fries :-) Do you work for Google or maybe in ad auctioning?

Anyway, I do not find ads following me around the web spooky, I know exactly what’s happening behind the curtain.

Back to my point, there’s a difference between anonymous and anonymized. Reports suggest that the data is being moved from its native storage and in place industrial and regulatory safeguards to a different storehouse and then somehow anonymized for statistical purposes – the original is still exposed while in transit and in the pre-anonymized store…

This is not akin to Harper-era short form / long form arguments – completely different beastie…

#188 Bottoms_Up on 10.31.18 at 12:57 pm

#180 dave on 10.30.18 at 4:27 pm
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You can’t have balanced commentary when the original poster is a nut.

#189 Nonplused on 11.01.18 at 4:16 am

“Does this sudden self-awareness mean that the three of you won’t be posting here anymore? Smokey appears to have packed it in; hopefully, we can add AB Boxster to the list. :)”

OMG full Hillary and SJW. No dissenting voices allowed. I’ve posted a lot of comments that I thought helped the flow of the main argument but I think I’ll go the way of smokey (not that I ever liked smokey, I couldn’t ever understand what he was getting at). There are other websites and there really isn’t a need for Greater Fool anymore if it doesn’t allow an open exchange of ideas.

And anyway if a comment doesn’t have my email it doesn’t have my consent.

Anyway, it has been the case that you have told me to stop commenting many times and never thanked me for commenting when I had a good one. Actually I don’t think you have ever thanked anyone for commenting. You hate all your followers. Sheer narcissism. I think I have switched position and decided that there should be no comments section. I think I should find other venues. You’ve made it clear I am not welcome here, even when I post a good comment. (Although I admit I am hit and miss).

I am not Trump crazy because he is reacting to a boarder situation. You are crazy if you think he could just let it pass. There are a lot of things to thing about, and you are doing ok if you can make a few right decisions. I’m sure Trump did not make the border decision on his own but you have it all figured out. You know nothing about it. Nothing.

#190 Prince Polo on 11.01.18 at 11:30 am

#160 Biddy on 10.30.18 at 1:08 pm
[blah blah blah]

I am done with the mindless partisanship, lack of civility and endless lies, misrepresentations and divisive crap being spewed here. The election of Donald Trump marked the beginning of a time when people think their closet prejudices, hates and fabrications are suddenly legitimate and mainstream because the Big Guy is saying the same thing. Well, tough. Go spray elsewhere. It will not be tolerated here. – Garth

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Garth is my hero!!!! Keep full suction on that septic truck, good sir.