Too hot

No surprise, interest rates rise again.

Did you catch the survey a few days ago showing 85% of first-time homeowners are hitting the wall? Their budgets are shot. Creamed. Pooched. There’s nothing left to give, since they stretched like crazy in order to buy.

No shock there. That’s what young buyers do. They gamble.

But these are not normal times. Since 2009 interest rates have lain fallow, only rising, phoenix-like, since the summer of 2017. With tomorrow’s hike by the Bank of Canada, there will have been five increases in little more than a year. And three more to come in the next eight or nine months.

Just as stock markets have been reacting to rising bond yields lately – selling off from their record-high levels – so real estate is feeling the crunch. The pressure, it seems, has only just begun. This week’s survey (an Ipsos poll) is a shocker.

So, kids, it asked, thinking of the cost of money rising, are you worried about paying your monthly bills? Might this even cause you to contemplate bankruptcy? The results: 62% are worried, and 46% are mulling over financial suicide (which is what bankruptcy means). These are huge numbers – all the more worrisome because interest rates are still near their historic low point. Just imagine if mortgages were back at their long-term average of  8%. There would be moister guts everywhere. But houses would cost a lot less.

The Ipsos poll also found angst among all ages. A third said more increases could cause them to fail and almost half (45%) claimed they’re already struggling “with the effect of higher rates.”

Higher rates? Give me a break. The bank rate is just 1.75%. Long-term mortgages are still 3.5%. Secured lines of credit are 4%. This is still ridiculously cheap money – exactly why the central bank is desperate to get rid of it. The distortions caused by loans at this level are growing a sea of risk.

Ten years ago the prime rate at the banks was 5.75%, and we thought that was cheap. Five-year mortgages were over 7% – or exactly double what they are now. It’s no real coincidence, either, that houses cost twice as much, or family debt loads have gone up 100%.

In short, the pendulum now swings back towards the centre. Two per cent loans are history. Real estate will inevitably soften or decline, depending on local conditions. If you’ve been trying to sell a condo in Toronto or a detached house in Van, you already know it. But every major urban region will be equally impacted. There is no scenario under which interest rates stop rising, or are reduced. Sorry kids, you blew it.

Despite faltering stocks (weed shares are being hammered this week), weaker oil and the looming US midterm elections, there is core strength in both the Canadian and American economies. Inflation is back. There are more people working in America than at any time in half a century, and the Canadian unemployment rate has bottomed. Corporate profits have been outstanding. Nine rate increases by the Fed have crashed nothing. Now that the USMCA is in place, our trade picture is looking ducky. In short, the economy is running hotter than Chrystia Freeland.

Too hot means more inflation. That devalues the currency, starts a wage-price spiral and, ultimately, makes housing less affordable. The central bank has a mandate to battle rising costs, prices and non-productive income gains. And battle, it shall. This is the essence of modern monetary policy – to protect us from ourselves.

Sadly the feds don’t get it. The latest stats out of the indy Parliamentary Budget Office show fat deficits as far as the eye can see. Meanwhile Ottawa’s new carbon tax is destined to swell the bureaucracy, add about $500 to every family’s expenses and turn into a giant money-recycling scheme with 90% of the amount collected doled back in the form of cheques designed to – guess what – make you vote Lib in 2019.

At the same time, leading up to that election, the feds plan on ramping up infrastructure spending, running big budget shortfalls and generally throwing money around. This, as the bishop told the actress, is highly stimulative. It adds to inflation. It runs counter to the central bank trying to remove monetary stimulus. Plus, finance guy Bill Morneau is expected to announce corporate tax cuts in his next budget, including the ability of companies to depreciate equipment faster – just like Trump did. Yup. More stimulus.

The bottom line: Wednesday’s rate jump is not the end. Maybe not even the middle. May God have mercy on the moisters.

218 comments ↓

#1 Mr X on 10.23.18 at 5:11 pm

hi Garth.

how many times BOC will hike the interest rate in future. One is tomorrow and 3 more are in next 6 months. when they will stop… at 4%?

#2 The Real Mark on 10.23.18 at 5:12 pm

I’ve outlined the reasons over the past few weeks, but the data most certainly does not support a rate hike, and probably more closely supports a rate cut. Especially with the deflation that was experienced recently, the chronic inability of the BoC to meet its inflation mandate of 2% (inflation over the past 10 years has been around 1.5%/annualized), the meltdown in the RE marketplace that is seeing retail credit credit spreads expanding, and even recently, the slow-motion melt in the stock market even amongst some of the highest quality issuers. Barely even back to levels first achieved a decade ago despite a decade of retained earnings, significant monetary expansion, and prices 15-20% higher.

Maybe the BoC won’t go for a rate cut, but a rate hike, seriously?? It looks like the financial media has been seriously trolled by Poloz if they actually believe that nonsense.

Garth is so eager to talk about the Bank of Canada’s mandate to suppress inflation, but the 2% inflation mandate also implies that they have a mandate to create sufficient inflation (ie: 2% inflation) to combat stagnation and maintain sufficient resiliency in the economy. The market is firing its warning shots loud and clear that there is actually a need for rate cuts as deflationary forces are becoming increasingly overwhelming in Canada. How much more pain must we suffer. Will Poloz have to be dragged kicking and screaming, or will he accept reality kindly and get on with adhering to the BoC’s mandate.

#3 Learning To Invest on 10.23.18 at 5:17 pm

“Just as stock markets have been reacting to rising bond yields lately – selling off from their record-high levels “..

Just curious why my high yields fell so much if the yields are rising. Are the High yield ETF and yields inversely proportional? Thanks for the posts..

#4 ShawnG in TO on 10.23.18 at 5:19 pm

it’s called liberal’s carbon tax

it’s not 90% money back. if you include the cost of business, which leads to higher cost of services and goods, it’s maybe 50%

buying your votes with your own money. and buying bureaucracy union votes with your money too. shysters

#5 LovethisBlog on 10.23.18 at 5:32 pm

As harsh as it sounds, I have no sympathy.

I see lots of 24 year old couples with 2 new vehicles,
Camper, boat and brand new house

All on credit.

Reap the whirlwind.

#6 Derrie McLean on 10.23.18 at 5:42 pm

Hi Garth, Preferreds have been soft lately. Will that change tomorrow with the hike and in the months to follow? Is it time to back-up the SUV and load?

#7 Madcat on 10.23.18 at 5:46 pm

It’s about time a law was passed that Banksters aren’t allowed to mess with interest rates anymore… Set them… Leave them alone… They just pooch the situation up worse than it would have been if they hadn’t tried to save the day…

#8 TurnerNation on 10.23.18 at 5:51 pm

Trick or treat? Soon in the dreaded Tower of Ottawa the Monarch’s bankers will be tightening the thumb screw of interest rates on the captive debt slaves.

I’m somewhat heartened that there’s been no change in human behavior over time. Consistency is good. Just do’t put faith in gold (or goldy).

#9 Alberta Ed on 10.23.18 at 5:52 pm

How many moisters will be able to absorb the equivalent of another monthly mortgage payment due to Justin’s carbon tax?

#10 Linda on 10.23.18 at 6:01 pm

I don’t doubt inflation is back, but given the Ontario government just announced they will not proceed with minimum wage increases (for now, frozen at $14 per hour) the expected wage/price spiral from inflation may just be on the price side of things.

As for the indebted, going to be tough going & yes, some will not be able to keep afloat. However, if the economy is doing well presumably employment will not be interrupted & people will be able to reduce their debt loads or at least continue to carry them. It may mean a period of frugality – no eating out, no daily coffee treat, brown bag work lunches, no new clothes & doing ‘staycations’ where one sleeps at home or camps near to home if the great outdoors is calling. Oh, the horror! But things like daily work lunch & coffee adds up, given that most places charge $5 for a fancy coffee of some sort & that lunch out will likely cost $7 – $10 per day. Even if you get 4 weeks annual vacation, 48 weeks x 5 working days per week x $12 ($5 coffee break; $7 lunch) per day is still $2,880 per person, per year. For a working couple, that is at least one if not two mortgage or monthly rent payments they could make if they brought their own coffee in a thermos & brown bagged their daily lunch.

#11 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.23.18 at 6:03 pm

@#2 Be for Real Mark
“the data most certainly does not support a rate hike, and probably more closely supports a rate cut.”
++++

Were you dropped on the head in the delivery room?

#12 Alex from Edmonton on 10.23.18 at 6:16 pm

Many millennials say they want to own a big house, but while their mouths are moving it’s their parent’s voice that’s coming out. As a millennial myself, my parents badgered me constantly to put down roots as soon as possible, at a time when mobility would have been far more useful.

Cash gifts, loans against grandfolks’ inheritance, and even (and this one is embarrassing) a cash withdraw from my credit card were all used to squeak my way through down-payments and closing costs. I shudder to think of what might have happened if I had lost my job shortly after.

All the while getting nothing but encouragement and assurance that I was doing the right thing. They even helped me find a mortgage broker when the bank figured I was too big a risk to give $300k.

It’s been 6 years and my house is worth about the same (and therefore less) than I bought it. If I weren’t a moderately well paid programmer and a cheap SOB who likes living with housemates I’d probably have gone gray by now.

#13 AlbertaGuy in AB on 10.23.18 at 6:17 pm

Q: hey has anyone with a corporation full of retained earnings thought about purchasing personal residence and renting it back at market rate? Seems like a way to sell at the top, withdraw all equity from the home, and have the corp pay for all maint, repair, utils, taxes, insurance…..if houses fall in price, might even result in capital loss for corp. just wondering pros and cons. Mi

#14 BobC on 10.23.18 at 6:17 pm

DELETED

#15 Canis on 10.23.18 at 6:18 pm

The Real Mark: “deflationary forces” that are “increasingly overwhelming”? I wish I could go to your grocery store, or drug store, or gas station, or insurance agent.

#16 dakkie on 10.23.18 at 6:20 pm

The Housing Bubble Has Popped…Are Stocks Next?

http://www.investmentwatchblog.com/the-housing-bubble-has-poppedare-stocks-next/

#17 Meghan on 10.23.18 at 6:21 pm

Where did you get the survey results from? Parkdale, Rexdale, Lawrence Heights, Keelesdale, and the list goes on?……Pffttt…

Toronto is a boomin city ranked #1 as best city in the world. We have great restaurants, the Rogers Centre, a happy multi-cultural population and GDP that is ten times that of the median worldwide GDP.

TORONTO is a city that rewards those who work hard and respect others for their gender, identity, orientation and skin colour.

We are ranked Top 10 in the safest cities in the world.
Millions of foreigners dream of coning here to study in our prestigious institutions, and start a life where we respect everyone.

Toronto is for winners, not whiners!

#18 yvrmc on 10.23.18 at 6:24 pm

I’m maxed out in my TFSA , but its just sitting there earning nothing in interest. What things would you all invest in that are reasonably safe, yet yield something more than 1% ??

#19 Marco on 10.23.18 at 6:24 pm

Chrystia Freeland is hot?

#20 GenX on 10.23.18 at 6:28 pm

I like you Garth. I like your sometimes contrarian views, I like your wit and your ability to explain complicated financial constructs to the average layman.

But why do you have to say stuff like this? “In short, the economy is running hotter than Chrystia Freeland.”

Hey, she’s the hottest thing in Cabinet. You have an unfortunate mind. But I still like you, too. – Garth

#21 say it ain't so on 10.23.18 at 6:31 pm

inflation doens’t come from a “hot” economy. it comes from excessive money printing. the kind that happened in the last decade. here, in Europe, Japan. Budget deficits financed by borrowing. Central banks not reducing their balance sheets. keeping interest rates lower for longer than needed….

this is a replay of the 1960s. Fed financed Vietnam war and Nixon spending programs. kept interest rates lower than needed for over a decade. it takes time to work into the system.

this time, Fed finances banking collapse. increases it’s balance sheet by $4 trillion from thin air. Trump cuts taxes and spends like mad. $1trillion a year in budget deficits..

the chickens are coming home to roost..

“Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” ― Milton Friedman, Money Mischief: Episodes in Monetary History

#22 and the budget will balance itself on 10.23.18 at 6:42 pm

why did cpd and zpr go down today if interest rates are supposed to go up tomorrow?

#23 Leichendiener on 10.23.18 at 6:46 pm

According to a supply drama teacher, carbon dioxide is air pollution and it must be taxed. But you’ll be reimbursed on your tax return…

#24 Deplorable Dude on 10.23.18 at 6:46 pm

Anyone explain how this new Carbon tax works….it seems bizarre?

Why is T2 giving rebate checks to Provinces that are refusing to take part in it????

#25 mortgagebrokeron on 10.23.18 at 6:49 pm

#2 i work with a lot of business owners and they have to keep increasing wages (for skilled workers) or they lose their employees to a competitor. there is a lack of skilled trades out there and yes the economy needs less stimulus so we can have more balance. inflation needs to be held in check. inflation is really hurting the poor and the seniors. their small cheques are not buying good groceries anymore. if we don’t match usa in rate hikes our inflation will go way too high… ie really expensive groceries

#26 RMH on 10.23.18 at 6:49 pm

Garth – thanks for your post tonight. I agree interest rates are on the way up. Quick question – during inflationary times, what should we expect from the performance of equities and the stock market. Thanks Very Much.

Inflation (as long as it stays moderate) usually stems from increased economic activity, which sustains corporate profits and equity values. – Garth

#27 Spiltbongwater on 10.23.18 at 6:52 pm

How is JTs carbon tax different then the green shift you and Stephane Dion sought to bring us? I used the green shift calculator and found out how much money I would get, so was that not doled out money as well?

The Green Shift plan reduced personal income tax and shifted that to taxing consumption. Logical. – Garth

#28 David Prokop on 10.23.18 at 6:54 pm

It seems that there is a begger at almost every intersection in Toronto, young, old, all kinds of people. Are things that bad? I thought our economy was firing on all cylinders

#29 Debtslavecreator on 10.23.18 at 6:55 pm

It’s called dumb moister syndrome and it will result in a majority hard core NDP or worse left wing govt federally and provincially within 5-10 years as these brainwashed and indoctrinated kids get angry and use a politician to steal our money to bail them out because it’s not fair their house went down
They have no clue what’s coming for them
All of it their choosing and mom & dads choosing
It’s so pathetic
The best voters and employees are those in massive debts
Good luck to them

#30 JSS on 10.23.18 at 7:02 pm

I’m waiting for Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ.TO) to drop to $33.50/share. This will give a dividend yield of 4%.
The stock is currently around $36.50/share, so it needs to drop around 9% from today’s price.

CNQ is an example of a dividend growth stock with a 17-year dividend growth streak. And i believe they will increase their dividend again early next year. And the year after…

Nobody wants to buy these days, so I’d like to dip my toes… says the bishop to the actress

#31 Brett on 10.23.18 at 7:10 pm

DELETED

#32 Brett on 10.23.18 at 7:12 pm

Hey guys

Ever notice how the closer you are to a communist the more you like carbon taxes ? I wonder why…..not

#33 pay your taxes on 10.23.18 at 7:16 pm

I work with some youngsters who were blocked from purchases due to insufficient income and they still don’t see how lucky they are. One guy wants to buy a condo that he can’t afford in the vain hope that the value will rise by 70% in the next ten years!

Us older guys who have seen a few of these cycles try to talk sense into the young’uns but all they’ve known is low interest rates and rising prices. Some of the guys who got into the market and will be up for renewal next year don’t even know what B 20 is or how it can negatively affect their ability to negotiate a lower interest rate.

#2 Real Mark
Where is the deflation of which you speak? I don’t mean to derride you as you’re obviously much better educated than I am, but I’m often left wondering which planet you currently inhabit. There’s certainly no deflation at the gas pumps or the grocery stores.

A store I shop at sold boneless, skinless chicken breasts in trays that cost $10 and the weight ranged from 1 to 1.2 kilos per tray. A couple of weeks ago the price was jacked up to $11 and there wasn’t a tray that weighed more than 850 grams. Just one example but certainly not an outlier.

#34 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.23.18 at 7:17 pm

@#114 Ubul
“According to the article, the new welfare policy is designed to lift 5 million Italians out of poverty.
It seems like the populist government is hellbent to send a message to EU about taking care of the 5 million Italians first, before taking care of others, outside of the EU…..”
+++++

Sorry, but Italian Govts spending money they dont have to buy votes and annoying the EU people setting the lending rates…..isnt exactly a sound fiscal strategy.
But what do I know.
With a populist, right wing party heading up a minority coalition and looking to stay in power……what could possibly go wrong?
Lets see where Italy’s economy is in 1 year, 3 years, 5 years…..I’m pretty certain it wont be “improved”.
No matter how many billions they squander on pencils in the Welfare office.

#35 AK on 10.23.18 at 7:18 pm

“designed to – guess what – make you vote Lib in 2019.”
=====================================

These clowns will not only lose the election in 2019, they will also lose their part status. Yeap, just like the Ontario Liberals. Looking forward to the day…

#36 In Garth We Trust on 10.23.18 at 7:24 pm

#19 GenX on 10.23.18 at 6:28 pm
“I like you Garth. I like your sometimes contrarian views,
But why do you have to say stuff like this? “In short, the economy is running hotter than Chrystia Freeland.”

Because it is the bearded mystic oracle’s blog and he can say whatever he bloody well wants to say…

#37 M. Gandhi on 10.23.18 at 7:26 pm

#9 Linda (who only posts but doesn’t read the comments)

“I don’t doubt inflation is back, but given the Ontario government just announced they will not proceed with minimum wage increases.”

Proof that the war on the poor has been won. The poor have been defeated!

#38 young & foolish on 10.23.18 at 7:30 pm

As we have noted many times, people and governments are carrying enormous debts … how are higher rates going to help with continued spending in a consumer driven economy?

Corporate tax cuts and stock buy backs resulted in a juiced equity market. The effect is wearing off.

#39 Marie Antoinette on 10.23.18 at 7:30 pm

#23 mortgagebrokeron

“…inflation is really hurting the poor and the seniors. their small cheques are not making ends meet…”

Let them eat cake!

#40 Brett on 10.23.18 at 7:32 pm

Great interview between Mark Levin and Dr Patrick Michaels on climate change. Garth deleted my post of the link. Anti science. PC bully.

We don’t run Fox News drivel here, unless she’s really cute. – Garth

#41 Jesus Christ on 10.23.18 at 7:33 pm

#26 David Prokop on 10.23.18 at 6:54 pm
“It seems that there is a begger at almost every intersection in Toronto, young, old, all kinds of people. Are things that bad?”

“The poor shall have always be with you.” Matthew 26:11

#42 adee on 10.23.18 at 7:34 pm

You are correct on some things, wrong on others – the general weakness with your analysis
(as it has been since day #1)
is that it is always based on the same three opening propositions:

1/ housing is not affordable

2/ housing is getting less affordable

3/ whatever any level of government had done or will do to respond to any situation will only make things worse.

Ultimately builders build what the market is willing/able to pay for according to the zoning that government allows.

When money becomes more expensive, the market will be able to pay less, and housing prices (and sizes) will adjust.

What’s happened in the past 10 years is not “forever”. And just as low interest rates created this mess in housing, they are in large part responsible for the performance of the stock market, which will also likely correct. Dead companies have stayed alive due to low interest rates. There will be a shakeout in the years ahead.

Equity markets have risen on corporate profitability, thanks to a general economic recovery after years of sub-standard growth. Housing has risen on people snorfling debt. – Garth

#43 JCS on 10.23.18 at 7:35 pm

“90% of the amount collected doled back in the form of cheques designed to – guess what – make you vote Lib in 2019.”

Isn’t that an overly cynical take on the carbon tax? The point is indeed that the money is doled back out but you don’t have to spend it on the things that cost more because of carbon.

So if you buy low-carbon things you are being subsidised by other people who buy high-carbon things. And since using carbon raises the price, something that costs a bit more but uses a lot less carbon might be actually be cheaper so there is an incentive to develop lower-carbon stuff.

Seems at least plausible doesn’t it? If not this, then how do we address the objective reality that we’re not behaving in a sustainable way? Aren’t some pretty solid economists on board with this line of thinking that aren’t trying to win elections?

Adding 4.5 cents per litre to gasoline prices and increasing home energy charges which are unavoidable does not exactly make most people change their ways, does it? – Garth

#44 Sebee on 10.23.18 at 7:35 pm

Everyone see the CBC bit about Canadians being debt junkies?

Turns out 55% buy cars with 84 month loans, and 32% sell the cars when they owe more than car is worth. Another measurement of temperature out there. I remember when choice was up to 4 years.

#45 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 10.23.18 at 7:36 pm

#17 yvrmc on 10.23.18 at 6:24 pm
I’m maxed out in my TFSA , but its just sitting there earning nothing in interest. What things would you all invest in that are reasonably safe, yet yield something more than 1% ??
……………………

Big Six common shares paying 4.5%+ dividend. Disclaimer: I am overweight these.

#46 The Real Mark is a real Nut on 10.23.18 at 7:37 pm

14 Canis on 10.23.18 at 6:18 pm
“The Real Mark: “deflationary forces” that are “increasingly overwhelming”? I wish I could go to your grocery store, or drug store, or gas station, or insurance agent.”

It should be obvious to you and everyone on this blog that the Real Mark is not in touch with reality. You respond to his comments at your own psychological peril…

#47 [email protected] on 10.23.18 at 7:38 pm

Took a walk down the street on Sunday.
I think 1809 Southwest Marine Dr. VR, was for Sale
in 2016 for $5.5 to $6 Million. Nice big sign on
the property inc price, now for you $3.99 Mil.
Lots of work to be done IMHO. However, with
the soggy winters we have, you can catch a
wave, in your indoor wave pool

#48 Shawn Allen on 10.23.18 at 7:38 pm

Channeling JSS…

Trucking company TFI International just increased its dividend by 14%.
Rub Tummy.

This is an extremely well-managed Canadian company that has done well even in the U.S.

Those who hitched their wagon to it have done very well.

#49 James on 10.23.18 at 7:39 pm

Yikes! Talk about terrible timing. I just went to realtor.ca. What a mess!

They have ‘upgraded’ their website, and now it is shockingly harder to navigate than before. Lots of confusion and roadblocks just to view properties on a regular screen.

Great timing realtards, just when the market is already tipping, you make shoppers feel frustrated and unable to use your site.

Idiots.

(This is what you get when someone like Hudak is your leader, I guess)

#50 Sebee on 10.23.18 at 7:39 pm

Buying our votes with out money. Politicians are really something.

Time for us to stop transferring our decision making ability on all manners to them for 4 years at a time. They never earn that level of trust. Technology is here for them to really be the servants of the people.

#51 The Real Mark is a real Nut on 10.23.18 at 7:40 pm

#10 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.23.18 at 6:03 pm
@#2 Be for Real Mark
“the data most certainly does not support a rate hike, and probably more closely supports a rate cut.
Were you dropped on the head in the delivery room?”

Read my previous comments on the Real Mark. He is a real whack job and you respond to him at your own psychological peril….

#52 Pole dancers on 10.23.18 at 7:40 pm

People answer polls in ways to try and manipulate the answer to their better interest.

Of course people are going to say that an interest rate hike will hurt them, not that it actually will, but because they like paying less for their mortgage.

Polls are like anything….garbage in garbage out

#53 M. Gandhi on 10.23.18 at 7:42 pm

#4 LovethisBlog on 10.23.18 at 5:32 pm
“As harsh as it sounds, I have no sympathy.”

You heartless [email protected]!

#54 will on 10.23.18 at 7:43 pm

#17 yvrmc

Buy a mix of preferreds and reits. For preferreds i prefer straights to rate resets but if rates go up as Garth says then maybe resets are the way to go.

#55 genbizx on 10.23.18 at 7:46 pm

Stunning ignorance of our economic system on this board..and these are the smarter ones..Your parents homes hitched a ride on an expanding and developing world economy, rising wages (growing union demands)and exponential expansion of credit..you can only massage the “dough” so thin

#56 In Garth We Trust on 10.23.18 at 7:46 pm

32 adee on 10.23.18 at 7:34 pm
“You are correct on some things, wrong on others…”

You should be burned at the stake for saying that to the bearded financial oracle that runs this blog…

.

#57 GTA Gary on 10.23.18 at 7:48 pm

#11 Alex from Edmonton

“It’s been 6 years and my house is worth about the same (and therefore less) than I bought it.”

Wow, it sucks to be a home owner in Edmonton…. The GTA would have to see a massive haircut in prices to not have had a gain in 6 years….

#58 Steven Rowlandson on 10.23.18 at 7:50 pm

The 3 years pay or less rule based on one income and a 25% down payment was devised for your protection young home buyer. Preferably based on minimum wage so that all wage earners have a chance of having hearth , home and family.
The one eighth to one quarter of months pay per month for renting an apartment rule was also devised for your protection. Real estate is not and never should be an investment. It is a place to live and nothing more. This is a fact of life and ignoring this might seem stylish and a way of getting what you want but it is a way of death and genocide.

#59 For those about to flop... on 10.23.18 at 7:50 pm

Pink Pumpkins being carved in Burnaby

These guys are going to have another go at hitting the exit.

Picked up for 1.67 at the peak in April 2016 as you can see by my notes they have been throwing all sorts of numbers out, hoping to get one to stick.

This time the ask is 1.59 and that means they will take a decent hit after expenses.

Some people got too comfortable speculating in Vancouver, acting like the market was a big fluffy blanket that would keep them warm on a cold winters night.

Safe and secure, nothing could go wrong.

Now they are being suffocated…

M44BC

4062 Venables St,Burnaby.

Paid 1.67 April 2016

Currently asking 1.59

Some of the asking price history.

Asking 1.75

Were asking 1.59 at one stage

Back on 1.48,now 1.62

https://www.zolo.ca/burnaby-real-estate/4062-venables-street

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAzVlI3SA==

#60 The Real Mark is a real Nut on 10.23.18 at 7:53 pm

#31 Payyourtaxes

#2 Real Mark
“Where is the deflation of which you speak? ”

In his little brain along side all the other imaginary items he conjures up during his hallucinations. Stan Brook’s Psychiatrist we have another patient for you!

#61 In Garth We Trust on 10.23.18 at 7:56 pm

” don’t run Fox News drivel here, unless she’s really cute. – Garth”

Hear, hear!

#62 IHCTD9 on 10.23.18 at 7:59 pm

Over the last couple days, I replaced an exterior door on the back of our house (leaking and a bit rotted). I put that door in there 17 years ago. It was a basic prehung steel, grated half window, 34” with the short jamb and no brick moulding. I bought an equivalent unit off the Rez for over a 100.00 less than I paid in ‘01, and went with a rot proof pre-mitred composite brick moulding this time for 60.00. I reused the lockset, and trimmed it out with leftover trim I had stashed years ago for $0.00. I had to remove all the siding because the new brick mould was wider than the original. I trimmed it to suit, and put it all right back up there; I even reused the same nails: $0.00.

The labour of course, was free. The installation quality is top notch, the kind of perfectionism only an owner would partake of. Taxes paid up to this point – $0.00. I do need some paint yet, I’ll likely just pick it up in town and suffer the $5.00 in taxes as I can’t drive to the Rez and back for 5 bucks.

T2 can carbon tax me all he likes, I’m not the least bit concerned. Even without my tax dodging antics, gas is just over a buck a litre where I fill up – and they pump it for you too. I’ll probably be cash positive after I get the Trudeau “rebate”.

#63 BlogDog123 on 10.23.18 at 8:02 pm

Boondoggle Alert! Boondoggle Alert!

Printing all those fancy Climate Change Dividend(tm) cheques just in time for the election will involve a vast army of bureaucrats, layers of do-nothing employees (liberal cronies) ready to screw this cheque/bribe/scheme up big-time. All with Gerald Butts gleefully wispering new “initiatives” into Trudo’h!’s ear…

God have mercy on us all…

#64 Rob on 10.23.18 at 8:06 pm

Sorry Garth, but you are wrong about gas and heating costs bring “unavoidable”….talked to one colleague today who saves $200 per month riding his bike to work. Three others are spending a small fortune choosing to commute 45 minutes each way to work and don’t even bother driving together! Heating costs are less flexible, but can be moderated with an electronic thermostat, etc. I’ll be happy to have pollution tax cheques rolling in, subsidized by those who use their F150s to take the kids to soccer practice.

Have fun on the bike this winter! – Garth

#65 pay your taxes on 10.23.18 at 8:12 pm

Equity markets have risen on corporate profitability, thanks to a general economic recovery after years of sub-standard growth. Housing has risen on people snorfling debt. – Garth

Nothing to do with share buy backs?

I’ve got a question about rate reset preferred stocks. Do the rates reset at a predetermined date, or is it at the discretion of the company? Is there anything preventing a company from continuing to pay dividends at the lower rate instead of resetting it?

(a) Buybacks play a minor role, and are a good thing for shareholders. (b) Read the pref prospectus. Better still, buy an ETF. – Garth

#66 Blackdog on 10.23.18 at 8:18 pm

@#19 GenX, because he is a product of generation, gender, and society. Unlikely to change at this point. Too indoctrinated even though he doesn’t know it. Like what you like. Ignore and/or laugh at what you see is outdated and stereotypical. Shrug…..

#67 Dave on 10.23.18 at 8:20 pm

There is virtually zero sales activity in Vancouver, its getting really bad and the interest rate hikes is the last catalyst that was needed. Massive price discounts in 2019, you can see the stress on all those smart real estate investors who were running on pure debt.

#68 JCS on 10.23.18 at 8:23 pm

“Adding 4.5 cents per litre to gasoline prices and increasing home energy charges which are unavoidable does not exactly make most people change their ways, does it? – Garth”

Ya, I don’t see how that’d encourage anyone to drive less or live in a smaller, better insulated place. And also consume less beef, air travel and whatever else releases disproportionately more carbon and hopefully is made more expensive by this.

And it might not yet, as you point out, it’s quite small. But once people wrap their heads around it, it can be raised. It’s a start. It’s something. Like said, if not this, then what? Status quo isn’t sustainable.

Just Canada acting isn’t going to help either, but why not set an example? If everyone just waits for someone else to do it, no one will.

#69 Nobel Laureate on 10.23.18 at 8:24 pm

They already have a carbon tax. It’s called royalties. Then they have a tax on a tax called HST. Then they have a tax on a tax on a tax in the form of corporate income taxes. The carbon tax will thus officially be a tax on a tax on a tax on a tax.

Stupid governments.

#70 akashic record on 10.23.18 at 8:29 pm

Adding 4.5 cents per litre to gasoline prices and increasing home energy charges which are unavoidable does not exactly make most people change their ways, does it? – Garth

That’s way too logical for liberal minds to comprehend.

On the other hand, you don’t have a clue about hot.
That’s Justin’s role in Cabinet.

T2 is so hot, that Canada needs to be chained to the Paris accord, and all Canadians must pay extra for his carbon footprint.

Chrystia Freeland warms only old farts’ heart. Tax free for now.

#71 Apocalypse AL on 10.23.18 at 8:29 pm

#65 Dave

“There is virtually zero sales activity in Vancouver, its getting really bad and the interest rate hikes is the last catalyst that was needed.”

Praise the Lord! The end is nigh!

#72 jojo on 10.23.18 at 8:31 pm

Over the last 40 years my wife and I have accumulated a siginfiicant portfolio of high quality forrestry land that we have under management…

They selectively cut as required any wood that is at prime age. No clear cuts..

Recently we asked the federal governent why no tax credits were being given under their carbon tax plan to those entities that harvest timber and/or own forestry land. We could stop cutting some of our forests and let them absorb as they do thus saving our planet……

You know – the BS you all spout….

It is the ONLY! natural carbon sync on this planet that takes elements out of the air and converts it O2.

In Volume that is…

The FEDS looked at us like we were martians and stammered. One finally said that the carbon tax was about revenue and penalization.

It wasn’t about credits…..

There is your answer = CRYBABY”S destruction of our economy is about revenue…..

Anyone who tells you this tax is not a tax is full of BS.

The government of this country is broke.
It’s obligations far outweigh it’s revenue…

Crybaby’s deficits prove that.

You are being robbed. BTW each of you had a hand in this by beleiving the BS that they fed you.

I can show you 300 year old treee rings that clearly show drought, freezing cycles liek clockwork..

By the way
All related to solar minimums…..

I guess the Liberals will send the SUN GODS a tax bill too…

You all who beleive this rubbish look really really dumb today

This is another reason why my family left to the US.

#73 jojo on 10.23.18 at 8:33 pm

Just wait
When you see your gas go up by 10 cents a litre this year, next year, the year after that – it will then dawn on you that you are broke and humiliated as your family goes bankrupt to save the planet.

Then off course the ICE AGE hits

#74 reynolds531 on 10.23.18 at 8:36 pm

#63

Rate resets are usually pre arranged to get a new rate every five years. The prospectus will say….at prime plus one or something similar.

If you actually read the prospectus, it will lay out terms including such things as when and how the company could buy back shares or cancel all the shares. Usually terms are slanted in favour of the company. Remember though a partial buy back or cancellation won’t likely push the price higher. Price is a function of yield vs credit rating, and cancellation prices are normally spelled out in the prospectus.

#75 akashic record on 10.23.18 at 8:41 pm

#62 Rob on 10.23.18 at 8:06 pm

….talked to one colleague today who saves $200 per month riding his bike to work.

Bike lanes in Toronto are created strategically on streets with high vehicle traffic, exposing bikers to high concentration of toxic engine exhaust and high probability of accidents.

What’s saved on gas, will be spent several times over in health care cost – including related carbon footprint.

#76 Ange on 10.23.18 at 8:42 pm

Mr. Turner

What about Montreal market, will it soften as well?

#77 Remembrancer on 10.23.18 at 8:42 pm

#22 Deplorable Dude on 10.23.18 at 6:46 pm
Anyone explain how this new Carbon tax works….it seems bizarre?

Why is T2 giving rebate checks to Provinces that are refusing to take part in it????
—————————————————————
Try this on for size and follow the links explaining the non-carbon taxed provinces…

https://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/federal-carbon-tax-1.4874706

Basically provinces either signed on to their own system (ie ON previously had Cap & Trade a “market” system) or the Feds impose a Carbon Tax – both were taxes…

The idea is to come up with a cost for carbon emissions so that a steel mill say is charged more than the gas going in your F150. As the goal is to economically drive the primary carbon producers to reduce emissions over all thereby reducing the tax they pay just like trading your F150 for a Focus would do the same at some monumentally low level but maybe make you feel better… Anyway, since this is a tax, at some point the costs to end consumers will rise for the taxed goods as producers pass their costs on. So that steel mill charges for steel which means engine blocks cost more, meaning trucks cost more, which, along with higher taxes on diesel makes transportation cost more, which means your produce costs more to deliver to the grocery store, who raises their prices etc etc etc…

Now, since the overall goal is, ahem, to reduce carbon emissions, while the government is collecting all these juicy taxes along the way, JT says he’s giving it back to you the consumer, mostly, as compensation, sort of like a reverse GST and rebate program, I’m thinking…

Bottom line – Feds are introducing a new tax as a disincentive for a certain behaviour (producing carbon)…

#78 Fish on 10.23.18 at 8:45 pm

Please folks the writing is on the wall
And I don’t mean 867-5309

Cute pic of the dog!

#79 For those about to flop... on 10.23.18 at 8:47 pm

Pink Pumpkins being carved in Vancouver.

Last week I wrote a post about some of the cheaper houses in this area and called it dodgy and mentioned how some people got carried away paying way too much for new builds for that part of town.

This case was one of the examples on my mind when I mentioned that and now they are back on the market so we can shine the spotlight on their troublesome situation.

They paid 2.54 in July 2016 for this house,with an assessment of 2.52, the average new build in the area comes in at 2.15, which is still way above what people should be paying for this area.

To put it into context,you won’t get anything new on the Westside for the same money but you can get something half decent and then develop or renovate at a later date and it is coming down each month.

Surrounded by houses destined to sell for less than a million, if anyone pays anywhere near ask then the word “Turner” will be BANNED from my blog…

M44BC

3621 Turner Street, Vancouver

Now asking 2.49

Apr 26:$2,988,000
Jun 6: $2,380,000

Change: – 608000.00 -20%

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/3621-turner-street

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAwMlJWWg==

#80 Troy McClure on 10.23.18 at 8:48 pm

“In short, the economy is running hotter than Chrystia Freeland.” — Garth

Prediction:

2019: People realize the mistake they made, and we have Prime Minister Scheer.

2023: People realize the mistake they made, and we have Prime Minister Freeland.

#81 BS on 10.23.18 at 8:49 pm

38 Brett on 10.23.18 at 7:32 pm
Great interview between Mark Levin and Dr Patrick Michaels on climate change. Garth deleted my post of the link. Anti science. PC bully.

We don’t run Fox News drivel here, unless she’s really cute. – Garth

It doesn’t hurt to listen to both sides of an argument. You might learn something. It was a great segment.

Unfortunately Fox News is the only place to get news without a narrative crafted by the left.

#82 Victor V on 10.23.18 at 8:51 pm

[POLL] Do you think the BoC should consider the risk of personal bankruptcies before raising rates?

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/1-3-of-canadians-fear-bankruptcy-ahead-of-bank-of-canada-rate-decision-1.1156593

#83 pay your taxes on 10.23.18 at 8:52 pm

#64 Rob

I’ll be happy to have pollution tax cheques rolling in, subsidized by those who use their F150s to take the kids to soccer practice.
xxxxxxxxx

Don’t be such a fool. Every bite of food you eat, every article of clothing you wear and every component of everything you own required energy of some sort to produce and fossil fuels to transport it. This isn’t about soccer moms and F150s, it’s a consumption tax masquerading as good social policy. My hope is that some of these greenies living up north will opt out of turning on the heat this winter and sacrifice themselves on the altar of their misguided beliefs. Whatever CO2 reductions we make will be more than made up for in countries like India and China. More stupid millennial drivel.

#84 Long Branch Apprentice on 10.23.18 at 8:53 pm

#49 James

There ya go again with the victim narrative. Just because you can’t use technology doesn’t mean it’s broken. This isn’t my old man vs the VCR.

Will the carbon tax effect my driving habits with my Crown Victoria Police Interceptor P7B with 4.6L V8 and 3.27 rear end? Haha I drive that thing around the block for groceries.

Suck it greenies.

#85 Rexx Rock on 10.23.18 at 8:54 pm

I leave the country for 6 months a year to a warmer and cheaper place to live.Its great,no carbon taxes and hst for a wastefull goverment.Canadians deserve all they get because they really are just wipped dogs.

#86 BS on 10.23.18 at 8:54 pm

We don’t run Fox News drivel here, unless she’s really cute. – Garth

BBC, Fox News, PBS ranked as TV’s most trusted news brands

https://thehill.com/homenews/media/399701-bbc-fox-news-pbs-ranked-as-tvs-most-trusted-news-brands

#87 D. Suzuki on 10.23.18 at 8:55 pm

#61 BlogDOg123

“Boondoggle Alert! Boondoggle Alert!Printing all those fancy Climate Change Dividend(tm) cheques just in time for the election…”

So how are you going to spend your cheque?

#88 ImGonnaBeSick on 10.23.18 at 8:57 pm

If we’re going to geek out over federal politicians; I’d say Mélanie Joly is the hottest for those awful liberals, and Michelle Rempel for those lacklustre conservatives… All I can say about the Dippers… Woof..

#89 Chairman Mao on 10.23.18 at 9:00 pm

#83 Pay Your Taxes

“Whatever CO2 reductions we make will be more than made up for in countries like India and China.”

You gotta problem with the 700 coal plants we built in the last couple years??

https://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/fossil-fuels/coal/despite-paris-agreement-china-india-continue-build-coal-plants/

#90 The Real Mark on 10.23.18 at 9:01 pm

“#60 The Real Mark is a real Nut on 10.23.18 at 7:53 pm “

Well let’s bring yet another data point into the mix, the CAD$ GoC yield curve. 30-year paper is trading at a 2.52% yield. When you subtract even a relatively modest portion of that yield attributable to interest rate risk premia, long-term inflation expectations are very minimal.

If Garth is right about inflation being correlated with growth, then the long bonds are implying very poor growth ahead.

Should the BoC be full of ivory tower economists who merely keep monetary policy overly tight to benefit those in deflation-beneficial businesses such as the Canadian banking oligarchy? Or should the BoC hold itself to its mandate of 2% inflation, which implies that they let a little bit of growth actually happen?

The past decade, incidentally, has been, by far, one of the ever in terms of Canadian stock market growth.

BTW, for anyone who doubts Canadian deflation, here’s the latest CPI data:

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1810000413

#91 The Donald on 10.23.18 at 9:03 pm

#81 BS

“Unfortunately Fox News is the only place to get news without a narrative crafted by the left.”

That’s right cowboy, Fox News is the place to get news with a narrative crafted by the right!

#92 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 10.23.18 at 9:04 pm

Oil prices in Canada plunged late last month, with the losses continuing throughout much of October. Canadian oil producers exposed to the low prices are now fetching around $40 to 50 per barrel less than their counterparts in the United States.

Western Canada Select (WCS), which tracks heavy oil from Canada, typically trades at a discount relative to WTI. The lower price reflects quality issues, as well as the cost of transport from Alberta to refineries in the U.S.

In early 2018, the discount started to grow significantly, the result of Canadian pipelines filled to the brim. The inability of the Canadian oil industry to build a major pipeline from Alberta to either the U.S. or the Pacific Ocean is increasingly dragging down WCS. Keystone XL, Northern Gateway, Energy East, Trans Mountain Expansion – all of these pipeline projects have run into years of delays, and in the case of Northern Gateway and Energy East, scrapped all together.
The discounts mean that the oil industry in Alberta is losing around $100 million per day, according to GMP FirstEnergy and CBC.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Why-Canadian-Crude-Selling-For-20.html

#93 Nick B on 10.23.18 at 9:09 pm

There is one thing than can stop the rate increases immediately. A garden variety recession which is likely going to happen in the next 6 to 24 months, even prominent economists believe that is the case. Maybe we hit 3% but I don’t think much more. Your article highlights why, it’s the debt, nowhere to hide when your ATM (home) starts to decline in value and the cost of borrowing goes up. Maybe 2% mortgages will be here again some day. We’ll see.

No recession on the horizon. – Garth

#94 Lorne on 10.23.18 at 9:14 pm

#49 James on 10.23.18 at 7:39 pm
Yikes! Talk about terrible timing. I just went to realtor.ca. What a mess!

They have ‘upgraded’ their website, and now it is shockingly harder to navigate than before. Lots of confusion and roadblocks just to view properties on a regular screen.

Great timing realtards, just when the market is already tipping, you make shoppers feel frustrated and unable to use your site.

Idiots.

(This is what you get when someone like Hudak is your leader, I guess)
………
What are they up to? Can’t even see a map like in the past! What use is this site now? Have to think it has something to do with them losing the court case?

#95 Lorne on 10.23.18 at 9:16 pm

#75 akashic record on 10.23.18 at 8:41 pm
#62 Rob on 10.23.18 at 8:06 pm

….talked to one colleague today who saves $200 per month riding his bike to work.

Bike lanes in Toronto are created strategically on streets with high vehicle traffic, exposing bikers to high concentration of toxic engine exhaust and high probability of accidents.

What’s saved on gas, will be spent several times over in health care cost – including related carbon footprint.
…..
I assume people also walk down this street? For them, there will now be a few less cars travelling there as some people are now on bikes. Still not ideal, but better than before!

#96 IHCTD9 on 10.23.18 at 9:17 pm

I’ve said it before, new taxation is going to come on things that you are hard pressed to avoid ie. gasoline, heating fuels, electricity, property taxes etc… The carbon tax is one of these. If they keep hammering us on fuels when oil is half of what it was in ’08, by the time it is up to 150.00/bbl. again, gas will be over 2.00/litre.

Get a plan in the works. DF might decide to axe KW’s “make the children pay” debt for discount fair hydro plan, and we’ll get a good front kick there too (although it needs to be done).

The IHCTD9 main bunker complex is ready for a heavy aerial bombardment courtesy of CFB Ottawa, you should be too. Get a plan together to reduce or eliminate your consumption of these products.

#97 Corporate Carl on 10.23.18 at 9:22 pm

12 AlbertaGuy in AB on 10.23.18 at 6:17 pm
“Q: hey has anyone with a corporation full of retained earnings thought about purchasing personal residence?”

Here you go cowboy. My bill is in the mail…

http://madanca.com/blog/how-to-purchase-a-primary-residence-with-a-corporation-in-canada/

#98 Alan Greenspan on 10.23.18 at 9:24 pm

7 Madcat on 10.23.18 at 5:46 pm
“It’s about time a law was passed that Banksters aren’t allowed to mess with interest rates anymore…”

Well what would we bankers do then??

#99 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 10.23.18 at 9:26 pm

#87 D. Suzuki on 10.23.18 at 8:55 pm
#61 BlogDOg123

“Boondoggle Alert! Boondoggle Alert!Printing all those fancy Climate Change Dividend(tm) cheques just in time for the election…”

So how are you going to spend your cheque?
…………………….

Prolly gonna score some Skunk Bud #3. You?

#100 The Real Mark is a Real Nut on 10.23.18 at 9:27 pm

#15 Canis on 10.23.18 at 6:18 pm
“The Real Mark: “deflationary forces” that are “increasingly overwhelming”? I wish I could go to your grocery store, or drug store, or gas station, or insurance agent.”

Sorry to break it to you but The Real Mark shares a rubber room with Stan Brooks in the mental asylum. The only drug store Mark goes to is the asylum drug dispensary for his daily meds….

#101 You've Been Warned on 10.23.18 at 9:29 pm

#17 Meghan

“Toronto is a boomin city ranked #1 as best city in the world. We have great restaurants, the Rogers Centre, a happy multi-cultural population and GDP that is ten times that of the median worldwide GDP.”

A heads up. The Toronto haters are going to come out in droves headed by the insane Stan Brooks…

#102 M. Gandhi on 10.23.18 at 9:31 pm

#24 Deplorable Dude

“Why is T2 giving rebate checks to Provinces that are refusing to take part in it????”

Because love is in the air Dude! Get with the program!!

#103 CRA on 10.23.18 at 9:33 pm

#62 IHCTD9

“Even without my tax dodging antics, …”

You can expect to hear from us soon….

#104 IHCTD9 on 10.23.18 at 9:36 pm

#87 D. Suzuki on 10.23.18 at 8:55 pm

So how are you going to spend your cheque?
———-

I’m thinking about a coal fired boiler to heat the old farm house.

#105 GTA Gary on 10.23.18 at 9:37 pm

#58 Steve Rowlandson

“Real estate is not and never should be an investment. It is a place to live and nothing more.”

Guess the good folks who sold their home in the GTA for multiple times their purchase price, all capital gains free, didn’t get your memo…

#106 For those about to flop.. on 10.23.18 at 9:40 pm

Pink Pumpkins being carved in Burnaby.

These guys are trying to get the bulk of their money back for the third time.

They tried 1.89 and 1.93,that didn’t work out and so now they’ll try basically what they paid at 1.79.

Here is another one that is coming up to two years trying to exit the market.

Spinning wheels.

Going nowhere.

Trapped…

M44BC

6843 Salisbury Ave,Burnaby.

Paid 1.78 June 2016 Ass 1.39

Asking 1.93 now 1.89

https://www.zolo.ca/burnaby-real-estate/6843-salisbury-avenue

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAzWDAxQg==

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Feel free to make a donation.

Flop For Fox Fund…

http://www.terryfox.org/get-involved/ways-to-give/

#107 In Garth We Trust on 10.23.18 at 9:50 pm

#70 Akashic Record

“Chrystia Freeland warms only old farts’ heart.”

I hope the bearded sage that runs this blog overlooks that comment….

#108 D. Suzuki on 10.23.18 at 9:52 pm

104 IHCTD9 on 10.23.18 at 9:36 pm
#87 D. Suzuki on 10.23.18 at 8:55 pm

So how are you going to spend your cheque?
———-
“I’m thinking about a coal fired boiler to heat the old farm house.”

I’m coming for you cowboy!

#109 La belle ville on 10.23.18 at 9:52 pm

76 Ange on 10.23.18 at 8:42 pm
Mr. Turner

What about Montreal market, will it soften as well?

It has yet to warm up from 1976…..

#110 BS on 10.23.18 at 10:00 pm

91 The Donald on 10.23.18 at 9:03 pm
#81 BS

“Unfortunately Fox News is the only place to get news without a narrative crafted by the left.”

That’s right cowboy, Fox News is the place to get news with a narrative crafted by the right!

That is correct. But if you want information you should listen to both sides of any debate. Without Fox News you will only get one side.

#111 D. Suzuki on 10.23.18 at 10:01 pm

99 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 10.23.18 at 9:26 pm

So how are you going to spend your cheque?
…………………….

“Prolly gonna score some Skunk Bud #3. You?”

I will probably donate it to the local food bank.

#112 Stan Brooks on 10.23.18 at 10:05 pm

#60 The Real Mark is a real Nut on 10.23.18 at 7:53 pm
#31 Payyourtaxes

#2 Real Mark
“Where is the deflation of which you speak? ”

In his little brain along side all the other imaginary items he conjures up during his hallucinations. Stan Brook’s Psychiatrist we have another patient for you!

============================

Stan Brook’s ‘Psychiatrist’ is a hungry real estate agent attacking everyone who disagrees with his ‘real estate is everything’ view, mostly inflation-ists (it seems most of the people on this blog today).

As with inflation interest rates rise, real estate deflates further and his stomachs becomes empty-er and more and more vocal.

Let’t not forget his toolkit (lobotomy, straight jacket).
And as he only specializes in inflation-ists, it till take him specialization for another 4-5 years to be able to start ‘dealing’ (same toolkit) with deflation-ists.

His job re-qualification as a debt collection agent should help in that.

=========================

As for our experience going forward, I believe it will be unique.

We have not started deleveraging yet, we used the period of significantly lower rates (in the whole world) not to deleverage but to leverage more (go much deeper in debt), we are in fact the most indebted in the world individuals.

There is no way this can be mitigated in any way possible and deleveraging avoided specially when interest rates rise. Nobody was ever able to achieve it, short of hyperinflation. It is the credit cycle, folks.

Deleveraging, combined with the effect from the housing ‘wealth’ quickly evaporating and the rising rates will leave much less money even in inflating currency in the people’s hands so not just recession but depression that follows every credit contracting circle is a certain.

How is that possible?

Simple: We will be spending less on much less, but more expensive items.

Watch prices of food, energy, some essential services.
We live in interconnected world, it is not possible to have isolated monetary policy without the currency thumbing and it’s potential complete destruction.

There will be big struggle to somehow maintain balance as depreciating currency means less investments/capital outflows and besides the resource sector there is very little we do that is competitive/not subsidized.

So expect 2 completely different economies: the resource sector outperforming and everything else significantly under-performing.

Which will bring us to the rightful place to be at the level of some developing countries in terms of competitiveness, productivity and standard of living.

Given the weather (it is obvious that even with the global climate change we are not becoming California any time soon) and exceptionally stupid monetary and tax policies we could become extremely unattractive even to cheap labour from Asia.

In the past 15 years we did very little as economy besides over-consuming through housing and putting all the eggs in one basket – real estate and financials.

So inflationary depression is pretty much a given, it might be masked by nominal GDP numbers but people will feel it hard at the store and with their pockets.

Still real estate that is overpriced 4-5 times in Vancouver and GTA has to fall by at least 60-70 % even in depreciating loonie/nominal prices, even without overshooting in-order to realign with other prices that will accelerate in the opposite direction – up.

Looking at the faces of our leaders (wild bill, T2 and gang) during the carbon tax and other announcements I have to tell ya that I have very little trust in their ability to carefully manage the slippery slope ahead of us.

Instead of boosting the economy through tax cuts they actually increase taxes and kill small businesses, shut down pipelines.

There is no doubt in my mind that at the end (as some form of minimum equilibrium must be maintained in order to avoid a catastrophe in the financial sector and the budget due to crashing debt) that will translate into further escalating horrific inflation (poor people always pay at the end).

I really appreciate the sense of humor of some people on this blog who really refuse to get it and think that by ignoring reality and refusing to acknowledge what is coming they will be somehow protected from it.

Scary times ahead.

#113 real estate on 10.23.18 at 10:07 pm

“Real estate is not and never should be an investment. It is a place to live and nothing more.”

………

wow. You live under a rock?

#114 akashic record on 10.23.18 at 10:12 pm

#95 Lorne on 10.23.18 at 9:16 pm

#75 akashic record on 10.23.18 at 8:41 pm
#62 Rob on 10.23.18 at 8:06 pm

….talked to one colleague today who saves $200 per month riding his bike to work.

Bike lanes in Toronto are created strategically on streets with high vehicle traffic, exposing bikers to high concentration of toxic engine exhaust and high probability of accidents.

What’s saved on gas, will be spent several times over in health care cost – including related carbon footprint.
…..
I assume people also walk down this street? For them, there will now be a few less cars travelling there as some people are now on bikes. Still not ideal, but better than before!

Most people in Toronto ride bike for exercise or because it is cheaper than TTC. Very few bike ride replaces car ride.

It is irresponsible from Toronto city planners to place bike paths on streets with the heaviest car traffic, instead of on streets with the least cars.

The city actually did not include any health impact study about biking in close proximity to heavy car traffic, for example on one-way streets, like Adelaide in downtown.

#115 the Jaguar on 10.23.18 at 10:15 pm

Hey, she’s the hottest thing in Cabinet. – Garth

She’s wicked smart. Principled. An Albertan. Stands up for her beliefs in hurricane winds. There’s a lot to admire. Goes without saying that she’s way smarter than her boss. I’ve poked fun at her fashion sense, but in a way it’s kind of endearing the way she tries so hard. Short little her standing up to tall Robert Lighthizer was classic David and Goliath. Wonder what kind of dog she has……?

#116 Stan Brooks on 10.23.18 at 10:19 pm

#101 You’ve Been Warned on 10.23.18 at 9:29 pm
#17 Meghan

“Toronto is a boomin city ranked #1 as best city in the world. We have great restaurants, the Rogers Centre, a happy multi-cultural population and GDP that is ten times that of the median worldwide GDP.”

A heads up. The Toronto haters are going to come out in droves headed by the insane Stan Brooks…

Ranked by whom? Real estate agents? Link please. I thought Vancouver was the best place on earth. Changing narratives on the fly?

Truly delusional.

They want you to love the expensive, extremely overprices, nothing to do (except blue jays game, yay!) crowded city with horrific traffic and undeveloped public transport, bad weather, lack of well paying jobs, that subsidized and survived on debt in the last 15 years with cornflakes homes and glass condos that cost 15-20 times yearly income and when you refuse they call you nuts?

Sure. Hope pot helps now, that is legal.

#117 JM Keynes on 10.23.18 at 10:20 pm

#21 say it ain’t so on 10.23.18 at 6:31 pm
“inflation doesn’t come from a “hot” economy. .”

“Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” ― Milton Friedman”

Ah good ol Uncle Miltie. You need to read Galbraith’s explanation of inflation which is that it is more than just a monetary phenomenon….

Galbraith’s main ideas focused around the influence of the market power of large corporations. He believed that this market power weakened the widely accepted principle of consumer sovereignty, allowing corporations to be price makers, rather than price takers, allowing corporations with the strongest market power to increase the production of their goods beyond an efficient amount. He further believed that market power played a major role in inflation.

#118 Slowly Boiling Frogs on 10.23.18 at 10:21 pm

On top of the new carbon tax, don’t forget that you’ll have a little bit less to pay it with.

Starting in 2019 we will see 7 years of rising CPP contributions coming off your pay cheques and coming out of the budgets of all the employers.

#119 Smoking Man is a Joke on 10.23.18 at 10:27 pm

131 Smoking Man is a Joke on 10.23.18 at 2:39 pm
#129 Gravy Train

“I can’t understand why Smokey finds Soros so deplorable. Do you suppose it’s really Smokey who’s deplorable? :)”

Duhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

#120 WUL on 10.23.18 at 10:29 pm

Chin up folks that paid too much for a house in a rising rate period.

Could be worse. You could be the GM of the Oilers who signed Lucic to $6MM per year. A third line winger with 2 points after 6 games and a -5 +/- rating.

Now there’s a stupid investment. Buying an over priced house does not cause job loss. Stress? Yes. A firing? No.

#121 The Real Mark on 10.23.18 at 10:37 pm

“In the past 15 years we did very little as economy besides over-consuming through housing and putting all the eggs in one basket – real estate and financials.”

I think you’re completely forgetting the massive investment in the energy industry that has cemented Canada’s position as a long-term net exporter and energy independence. You’re forgetting billions invested in modernizing Canada’s telecoms. You’re forgetting large investments in energy infrastructure. The housing stock of Canada, the primary focus of this blog, has been completely rejuvenated. And infrastructure has been installed to house, feed, and govern, and take care of the health care needs of millions of additional Canadians.

Not sure how you make the leap from the investments of the past 15 years, to the outcome being an ‘inflationary depression’. Especially when there’s so much available capacity in the Canadian economy and long-term inflation expectations are so low that long-year GoC paper is trading at a mere 2.52%. It doesn’t make any sense to me whatsoever. And Canadians are so pickled in debt that inflation is basically impossible until a significant amount of it is either paid off or is otherwise resolved through default.

Unlike the US, where you could argue that there are trillions of USD$ outside of the US that could come back and flood the US economy with demand, thus driving inflation, such doesn’t exist for the CAD$. CAD$ offshore are nearly fully accounted for in central bank reserves. And there are legitimate reasons why foreign central banks would actually want to hold CAD$ reserves — Canada actually has valuable exports. Contrast this with the US for which its domestic manufacturing industry has been decimated, and even its “tech” sector is largely replicated with ease overseas.

#122 sideshow on 10.23.18 at 10:42 pm

Millenials: Please give us more cheap money.

Finance Minister: More? No.

#123 Bdwy sktn on 10.23.18 at 10:48 pm

talked to one colleague today who saves $200 per month riding his bike to work.
———
Math says if he drives a civic he’s got to bike only 100km/workday to save 200/mo.

Might make sense if he drives an winnebago.

#124 Trojan House on 10.23.18 at 10:48 pm

For once, can’t government just stop taking money out of our pockets???!!!

#125 Moisters on 10.23.18 at 10:51 pm

we will be fine. We have youth……….it’s what you old guys envy. :)

#126 David on 10.23.18 at 10:55 pm

So, it seems like things are ripe to fail on the housing front… but what about the rental market?

Those who saved themselves mortgage debt by renting are now facing exorbitant costs! $1900/mo. in Mississauga for a 1-bed condo; even more in Barrie for the same thing!

How can ridiculous house prices, rising interest rates and outrageous rental fees not lead to recession when it’s clearly outpacing wage growth?

#127 You've Been Warned on 10.23.18 at 11:01 pm

#116 Stan Brooks

“A heads up. The Toronto haters are going to come out in droves headed by the insane Stan Brooks.”

On cue, here came Stanley:

“They want you to love the expensive, extremely overprices, nothing to do (except blue jays game, yay!) crowded city with horrific traffic and undeveloped public transport, bad weather, lack of well paying jobs, that subsidized and survived on debt in the last 15 years with cornflakes homes and glass condos that cost 15-20 times yearly income and when you refuse they call you nuts?Sure. Hope pot helps now, that is legal.”

Ah Stanley, Stanley. As Keynes once said, the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent on in your case, sane. Wait, you are not sane…

Anyhoots, you can keep bashing Toronto all you want Stanley but your housing apocalypse ain’t happening. Keep droning on like the madman you are (jealous perhaps since you have missed out on huge capital gains while you live your life out in some rented hovel…) Stan Brook’s psychiatrist, time to put Stanley to bed for the night…

#128 Stan Brook's Psychiatrist on 10.23.18 at 11:10 pm

#112 Stan Brooks

“Stan Brook’s ‘Psychiatrist’ is a hungry real estate agent attacking everyone who disagrees with his ‘real estate is everything’ view, mostly inflation-ists (it seems most of the people on this blog today).”

The hallmark sign of a person confined to a mental ward is the delusion that resides in his cranium that others are what the aforementioned whacko imagines them to be. Time for the straight jacket Stanley and your shock treatment…don’t worry, you will get your burrito tomorrow…

#129 BS on 10.23.18 at 11:20 pm

Economist Art Laffer to Newsmax: Trump’s First Term Is Best Ever

Economist and author Art Laffer, the architect behind the Reagan tax cuts that ushered in an era of economic prosperity for a generation, tells Newsmax in an exclusive interview that President Donald Trump is enjoying “the single best first term in economics that I’ve ever seen…. and he’s not even halfway through it.”

Laffer credits reduced regulatory burdens and lower taxes. He says Trump’s pro-growth policies are even stronger than Reagan’s.

https://www.newsmax.com/platinum/art-laffer-trump-first/2018/10/22/id/887344/

#130 Linda on 10.23.18 at 11:21 pm

#37 M. Ghandi – actually, I do read the comments & your post quoting me does not finish – as it should do – with ‘(for now, frozen at $14 per hour) the expected wage/price spiral from inflation may be just on the price side of things’. You then comment ‘Proof that the war on the poor has been won. The poor have been defeated!’.

Being in a state of poverty does not mean one must remain in that state. If you believe otherwise, then a state of defeat has been achieved – via self affliction.

#131 Fortune500 on 10.24.18 at 12:34 am

It is interesting to actually personally feel how rising interest rates and falling home prices impact buying decisions.

There is a good chance our family will be buying a rural property for cash in the next year or two, but we are in no rush. The fact is, we don’t know exactly what Canada’s terminal rate will be, but we certainly know it wont be hit for 12 to 24 months. So we are waiting. And we may wait a bit more beyond that since we aren’t really in a rush to buy.

I wonder how many other buyers will be doing the same. True, we may not see prices fall like they did in the US, but clearly we are in a rising interest rate cycle with an end point in the not-too distant future. Why catch a falling knife?

If we are wrong, it is highly unlikely that prices will have gone up much, but if we are right in thinking interest rates double what they are now will impact affordability and force sellers to lower expectations … why not wait and see.

#132 DON on 10.24.18 at 1:01 am

#85 Rexx Rock on 10.23.18 at 8:54 pm

I leave the country for 6 months a year to a warmer and cheaper place to live.Its great,no carbon taxes and hst for a wastefull goverment.Canadians deserve all they get because they really are just wipped dogs.
******

Right! Do you need a ride to the airport/ferry.

Christmas is coming early this year folks!

#133 I like cookies on 10.24.18 at 1:19 am

Low interest rates are undoubtedly bad for consumer debt, but raising them too quickly can be really bad for the rest of the economy. Are we strong enough to handle it? https://ourfiniteworld.com/2018/02/21/raising-interest-rates-is-like-starting-a-fission-chain-reaction/

#134 Concerned Reader on 10.24.18 at 1:27 am

JCS you put it well. The status quo is unsustainable and while I disagree with this government’s carbon tax (I much preferred the Dion green shift) any carbon tax is better than no carbon tax and once we get the ball rolling and people get used to the new reality the tax can be adjusted as needed.

#135 Buy? Curious? on 10.24.18 at 1:29 am

Hey Garth, great observations about the majority of “moisters and millienals” not being able to afford homes but what about the greatest generation ever, Baby Boomers? They’re wasting away in their homes unable to get into assisted living homes. They only go out to see the doctor and live on porridge. Aren’t those people the ones we should worry about? Ever visit a couple both suffering health issues who can’t go up and downstairs and move into their living with camping toilets?

Oh, Baby Boomers, I wish I could more to help.

#136 Interstellar Old Yeller on 10.24.18 at 1:52 am

Wow, not much love for Chrystia Freeland in the steerage section. She is currently a very recognizable politician with positive associations for the average Canadian due to the new-NAFTA deal. Maybe “running hotter” needed to be “winning streak”?

#137 The Real Mark on 10.24.18 at 2:00 am

I guess I was wrong about deflation and the BoC cutting rates

#138 The Real Mark on 10.24.18 at 2:11 am

Inflation? The only thing that inflates in my mom’s basement is my air mattress

#139 Jay Currie on 10.24.18 at 2:45 am

Well the “carbon tax” is a remarkably silly idea a) because the science behind CO2 as a temperature control is shaky, b) because Canada’s emissions are tiny in comparison to many other countries’, c) because the entire idea of revenue “neutrality” will, as it has in BC, quickly succumb to the Fed’s endless need for money.

As to real estate, the only question in the face of rising interest rates is whether we can pretend to have a “soft landing” or are we going back to the 1980’s where you could not sell a house for love or money?

In Victoria, where I live, there is a Potempkin soft landing in houses under 800k and some condos. The rest of the market has hit the wall. No sales. Stealth price reductions. No showings. It’s interesting to look on Craigslist and see all the houses for rent which are using MLS watermarked pics.

Keep hammering away Garth. You are wrong on climate but right on real estate.

#140 not so liquid in calgary on 10.24.18 at 3:10 am

The Green Shift plan reduced personal income tax and shifted that to taxing consumption. Logical. – Garth

=========================================

Yes! Tax consumption, not income… that way the “rich”, who obviously spend more, will pay more in tax

#141 Stan Brooks on 10.24.18 at 3:32 am

#121 The Real Mark on 10.23.18 at 10:37 pm

Of course there is capacity. Who will consume is the question. And what is the cost of production, quality, productivity.

Telecoms? We got fiber optics in Toronto 15 years after some developing countries.

Energy investments? To sell dirty oil at $ 25 bucks to US while buying at international prices in Quebec, BC and Ontario?

Infrastructure? GTA is jammed with traffic, public transit is really bad.

Renewed housing stock? You mean all these glass condos with windows falling, where you can hear the neighbour sneezing? Or cornflakes homes with leaking kitchens and pipes? With new kitchen cabinets that have to be replaced in 2 years?

Ability to handle millions of immigrants?

You are delusional. You must be a cabinet minister in this liberal government.

And who exactly is buying that paper at 2.5 % as it surely ain’t Warren Buffet or any other sane investor?

#142 Dolce Vita on 10.24.18 at 3:53 am

BRAD WALL Tweet about the Carbon Tax:

“Usually when someone tells you to send in money but you’ll get more back in return, it’s a Nigerian prince. #carbonTAX”

And on that, OTHERS could not resist:

“I’m sure @JustinTrudeau has a Nigerian Prince costume in his tickle trunk… #carbonTax #cdnpoli”

– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –

Garth, I hope you are correct that the rest of the economy will be able to “suck up” the GDP losses that are to come from both:

-people feeling less “wealthy” as their RE asset values go down (and thus, will probably spend less) and,

-young homeowners that will have less disposable income to spend as Consumers with rising interest rates (they spend the most vs. other age cohorts).

Recall, Consumer Spending +60% of the Cdn. economy.

You cannot have both a buoyant GDP and Consumer Spending decreasing due to the psychology of feeling “less wealthy” and with the young, actually having less to spend.

It makes no sense. Something has to give.

Either they continue to spend and borrow freely or GDP will take that inevitable hit and job losses to follow after the fact.

Still, I prefer your “can do, Unsinkable Garth” attitude since the alternative will be bad for EVERYONE, not just some, ALL of us.

On the latter, I agree with you.

#143 BillyBob on 10.24.18 at 4:09 am

#96 IHCTD9 on 10.23.18 at 9:17 pm
I’ve said it before, new taxation is going to come on things that you are hard pressed to avoid ie. gasoline, heating fuels, electricity, property taxes etc… The carbon tax is one of these. If they keep hammering us on fuels when oil is half of what it was in ’08, by the time it is up to 150.00/bbl. again, gas will be over 2.00/litre.

===================================

Gas here in the UK is about £1.40/litre, or about $2.38 CAD/litre. Wages are lower and taxes are higher. Canada has a long way to go.

Of course there are large differences between the geography and demographics of Canada and the UK, but on a basic level most people here drive for exactly the same reasons as Canadians: commuting, errands, and the like.

And life goes on.

#144 Howard on 10.24.18 at 4:24 am

#115 the Jaguar on 10.23.18 at 10:15 pm

Hey, she’s the hottest thing in Cabinet. – Garth

She’s wicked smart. Principled. An Albertan. Stands up for her beliefs in hurricane winds. There’s a lot to admire. Goes without saying that she’s way smarter than her boss. I’ve poked fun at her fashion sense, but in a way it’s kind of endearing the way she tries so hard. Short little her standing up to tall Robert Lighthizer was classic David and Goliath. Wonder what kind of dog she has……?

——————————————–

She also said we shouldn’t criticize the custom of honour-killings because it would offend people.

She is a cultural marxist. But yes, her IQ isn’t anywhere near as low as that of her boss.

#145 Stan Brooks is a Kook on 10.24.18 at 5:19 am

“So inflationary depression is pretty much a given, it might be masked by nominal GDP numbers but people will feel it hard at the store and with their pockets.

Still real estate that is overpriced 4-5 times in Vancouver and GTA has to fall by at least 60-70 %…”

Stanley you crack me up! You have a greater chance of becoming sane than the GTA falling 60-70%. Your paranoia makes you think that anyone who doesn’t agree with your predictions on real estate is a realtor. A true sign of madness. Admit it Stanley, you missed out of the capital free gains homeowners have made in spades. Don’t like your rented hovel which has made you nothing? Keep on with the drivel you spew out here every day. It really does provide comic relief….Is it time for more of your shock treatments?

#146 Stan Brooks is a Kook on 10.24.18 at 5:30 am

#116 Stan Brooks

“Ranked by whom? Real estate agents? Link please. I thought Vancouver was the best place on earth. Changing narratives on the fly?”

Here is your link Stanley. Now go back to your rubber room you moron….

https://www.cp24.com/video?clipId=541778

#147 LP on 10.24.18 at 5:41 am

#41 Jesus Christ on 10.23.18 at 7:33 pm
#26 David Prokop on 10.23.18 at 6:54 pm
“It seems that there is a begger at almost every intersection in Toronto, young, old, all kinds of people. Are things that bad?”
**********************************

I can’t speak for Toronto but I can for Kitchener/Waterloo. As in the big city there are beggars at a lot of intersections here. I gladly hand out $5 most of the time if I’m in the right lane and won’t be holding up traffic; I can afford it and “there but for the grace of God go I”.

But after doing that recently I continued on my way and it suddenly occurred to me that all the beggars I see are white people. I have never seen a person from the Far East, South-east Asia, any people of colour. The Kitchener/Waterloo area is a cosmopolitan region due, in part, to the presence of two large universities with students from all over the world.

Is it because non-white people have more pride than to beg? Are non-white people more able to find ways to support themselves? Are non-white people more willing to take ANY job than to beg? I am really interested to know the answer.

#148 enegry mizer on 10.24.18 at 6:37 am

China has commissioned 59 coal fired station in ine year, they have 480 in middle class and anothe 800 million that wnat what we have….. that is more tha ONE COAL FIRED POWER PLANT STARTING UP EVERY WEEK.
what we polute ehre in nothing, CO2 is needed for plants to survive, excess no not good, but mother nature has a way of adapting.
I het giving any money to rich little boys to screw us some more….

#149 Trumpocalypse2018 on 10.24.18 at 7:41 am

Yellow Alert in Effect!

Today, RUSH has confirmed it will never tour again.

….and

Canada Post disruption at Toronto’s Eastern Avenue sorting station stops cannabis delivery across the country.

MILLIONS of Canadians are now entering personal crisis.

In just hours, their debt fiasco will start to explode with the interest rate rising.

The personal becomes political, then it will all blow up.

PREPARE

#150 Jesus Christ on 10.24.18 at 7:41 am

#147 LP

“Is it because non-white people have more pride than to beg? Are non-white people more able to find ways to support themselves? Are non-white people more willing to take ANY job than to beg? I am really interested to know the answer.”

I normally give $5 or even $20 until I began to think about most of these folks and I saw seemed able bodied and then I viewed a program that showed some of them make 100s of dollars a day…. The best answer I can give you is a true story. A friend of my uncle worked a back hoe for decades. He became virtually a cripple and to see him walk with two canes was painful. He still went to work every day and climbed up on his back hoe and bounced around for 10 hours. So one day he is going to a mall with two canes in tow and a beggar asks him for money. He looks at the able bodied beggar and says, “look at me. I work 10 hours a day…” The beggar hung his head in shame and walked away….

Enough of this drivel. – Garth

#151 Stan Brooks on 10.24.18 at 7:46 am

#143 BillyBob on 10.24.18 at 4:09 am

Of course you are joking.

London is expensive as it is one of the 2 major world financial hubs with New York being the other.

You can buy a nice house in Leicester for 300 k. Manchester is working class city, much cheaper than Toronto. United tickets are 1/3 of leafs/raptors tickets.

There are at least 20 world other class cities before Toronto and Vancouver in the list.

Besides it/London has excellent public transport. Of course you are joking about driving in London as well, it is a compact city and driving is frankly not recommended.

UK is 60 millions on 2% of Canada’s territory.

People in UK have actually pensions, the pension system is very different, much better than CPP and very close to defined benefit pensions plan.

If you believe that Toronto or Vancouver can or will compare with London in the next 100 years, you are insane.

#152 M. Gandhi on 10.24.18 at 7:48 am

#130 Linda

“Being in a state of poverty does not mean one must remain in that state. If you believe otherwise, then a state of defeat has been achieved – via self affliction.”

You should have told that to John Kenneth Galbraith who is the originator of the quote the war on the poor has been won, they have been defeated. Easier said than done for those toiling away for low wages. You make it sound like they are all self afflicted losers. They are not. Minimum wage provides them with a poor person’s union. Another Galbraith quote.

#153 Stan Brooks is a Kook on 10.24.18 at 7:53 am

#149 Stan Brooks

More drivel by the mindless babbling Brooks. I lived in London you moron and it is prohibitively expensive. Only old money owns property. Toronto is bargain basement when it comes to prices in comparison to London. Give it up Stanley. As you look around your rubber room you grieve the capital gains you could have made on a principal residence. Your delusions of a 60-70% drop in prices is proof positive you are not playing with a full deck…

#154 Jesus Christ on 10.24.18 at 7:54 am

“Enough of this drivel. – Garth”

Sorry for telling a true story….

A friend of your uncle… sure… – Garth

#155 Tater on 10.24.18 at 8:02 am

#123 Bdwy sktn on 10.23.18 at 10:48 pm
talked to one colleague today who saves $200 per month riding his bike to work.
———
Math says if he drives a civic he’s got to bike only 100km/workday to save 200/mo.

Might make sense if he drives an winnebago.
—————————————————————–
Might also make sense if he has to pay for parking.

#156 Stan Brooks on 10.24.18 at 8:03 am

#142 Dolce Vita on 10.24.18 at 3:53 am

Still, I prefer your “can do, Unsinkable Garth” attitude since the alternative will be bad for EVERYONE, not just some, ALL of us.

On the latter, I agree with you.

=============================

It/the crash is frankly inevitable. Better prepare for it, one can’t be ignorant.

For decade and a half we over-borrowed and overspent on credit. Now when capital is leaving we are saying that economy is good, so we increase rates.

We can’t increase budget deficit as that would be warning sign for investors. So no one will send back refund cheques. Holding or reduced rates will crash the loonie and investors will rush for the exit.

How exactly would the over-indebted consumers keep the consuming orgy going now that they have less disposable income (there is NO wage pressure in Canada) with the higher rates?

We were running on fumes like HELOC for quite some time, now the bill is due and the party over.

Pretending won’t create magic wealth or decrease prices at the store.

And mark my words, once the ‘wealth’ effect from the sky high house prices disappears and only debt remains, then watch out, consumers spending will plunge.

Titanic was unsinkable, remember?

This is not a time for political correctness, better get prepared.

#157 Tater on 10.24.18 at 8:08 am

#140 not so liquid in calgary on 10.24.18 at 3:10 am
The Green Shift plan reduced personal income tax and shifted that to taxing consumption. Logical. – Garth

=========================================

Yes! Tax consumption, not income… that way the “rich”, who obviously spend more, will pay more in tax
—————————————————————–

Hmmmm. Who would pay more under a 20% consumption tax vs the current income tax regime? A person making 35k a year who spends it all or a person making 500k who spends 75% of it?

The vicious capitalist in me would love a 20 or 25% consumption tax! My tax bill might come close to being in the vicinity of the services I receive.

Now, the rational human side of me says I don’t want to live in a country where the government is as starved for revenue it would be under that tax system.

#158 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.24.18 at 8:13 am

@#115 jaguar

I couldnt help but notice you omitted “hot” in your description…..

#159 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.24.18 at 8:22 am

@# 148 enegry mizer

So many spelling mistakes!
Was it your fat fingers furiously fighting the keyboard?
Or coal dust from those Chinese power plants?
Either way….spell check is a wonderful thing.

#160 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.24.18 at 8:31 am

@#149 Trumpocalypse2018

Rush will never tour again….thank God.

Canada Post workers interrupt deliver of millions of pieces of mail…..no one notices.

Interest rates Rise today. Only Greaterfools and Realtors feel panic…..

Its not an Apocalypse.
Just overly intelligent Cape Bretoner and supreme puppet master Gerry Butz running the show behind the scenes…..

https://ottawacitizen.com/news/politics/the-man-behind-the-curtain-why-gerald-butts-is-trudeaus-most-trusted-adviser

#161 dharma bum on 10.24.18 at 8:34 am

#3 Learning to Invest

Just curious why my high yields fell so much if the yields are rising.
——————————————————————–

“When bond prices rise, yields fall, and vice versa. Hence, when fear rises and money flows into bonds, it pushes prices higher and yields lower. Therefore, when interest rates rise, bond prices fall, and bond investors, especially those who remain in bond funds, will feel some degree of pain.”

https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikepatton/2013/08/30/why-rising-interest-rates-are-bad-for-bonds-and-what-you-can-do-about-it/#8ecd2dd63088

Use the internet to learn some basics about the relationship of various types of securities to interest rates (or “yields”).

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/why-interest-rates-have-inverse-relationship-bond-prices/

#162 KLNR on 10.24.18 at 9:02 am

@#72 jojo on 10.23.18 at 8:31 pm
Over the last 40 years my wife and I have accumulated a siginfiicant portfolio of high quality forrestry land that we have under management…

They selectively cut as required any wood that is at prime age. No clear cuts..

Recently we asked the federal governent why no tax credits were being given under their carbon tax plan to those entities that harvest timber and/or own forestry land. We could stop cutting some of our forests and let them absorb as they do thus saving our planet……

You know – the BS you all spout….

It is the ONLY! natural carbon sync on this planet that takes elements out of the air and converts it O2.

In Volume that is…

The FEDS looked at us like we were martians and stammered. One finally said that the carbon tax was about revenue and penalization.

It wasn’t about credits…..

There is your answer = CRYBABY”S destruction of our economy is about revenue…..

Anyone who tells you this tax is not a tax is full of BS.

The government of this country is broke.
It’s obligations far outweigh it’s revenue…

Crybaby’s deficits prove that.

You are being robbed. BTW each of you had a hand in this by beleiving the BS that they fed you.

I can show you 300 year old treee rings that clearly show drought, freezing cycles liek clockwork..

By the way
All related to solar minimums…..

I guess the Liberals will send the SUN GODS a tax bill too…

You all who beleive this rubbish look really really dumb today

This is another reason why my family left to the US.
_______________________

LOL, we’re all certainly glad you left. You’ll fit right in down there. Please don’t come back.

#163 the Jaguar on 10.24.18 at 9:05 am

@ #144 Howard–I don’t disagree with you. I also don’t like the way she antagonizes Putin and Russia, but this can be traced to her Ukrainian roots. Good and bad, I suppose. Like most things.

#164 Kilt on 10.24.18 at 9:06 am

Stock market down YTD and only up 9% since the Liberals took power. Interest rates rising. House prices dropping. People stretched thin. New carbon tax is a joke. About the only things the Liberals have done is make weed legal. Curious how a recession showing up end of Q1 2019 will affect the Liberals at the polls next year. I suspect the NDP will be handing out free houses. And the cons are already hinting at tax cuts.

Kilt.

#165 Wrk.dover on 10.24.18 at 9:10 am

My evacuated solar tube hot water system has just had it’s fourth anniversary, once again paying a dividend of $600 (=$750 of pre-tax earnings here) in electrical savings, according to the computerised controller.

Plus there is the unaccounted for amount heating my basement floor sporadically all winter on this $4500.00 investment.

I was just looking for a link for a supplier to add in here, and I now see the cost of the collectors has tripled in the same four year time frame. My supplier has shrivelled up and gone away, waiting for people to wake up and get with the times. The others are gouging to stay alive.

Solar works exceptionally well, seasonally in gloomy SW Nova Scotia and like it or not, it will work to some degree where you are too.

Or prepare to pay the carbon tax on hot water.

In review, I have gleaned $2400 of tax free money out of a $4500 outlay in four years and have something durable working for me that has tripled in value.

I think I will take a long hot shower right now!

#166 fancy_pants on 10.24.18 at 9:23 am

Low rates have been nursed for too long. Inflation is chasing us down and the only way to ward it off is by setting the cost of money properly – aka. higher rates. Money shouldn’t be next to free. Either way, the debt-gorged masses get creamed first.

And the rise and fall of the next best thing (weed stocks as of late) is so predictable.

#167 Karl on 10.24.18 at 9:35 am

The “moisters” will be fine, at least those with good jobs. Which judging by all the euphoria around the economy (leading to rate increases), it suggests they do. Canadians pay their debts.

Those survey’s just prey on Canadians’ insecure nature.

#168 fancy_pants on 10.24.18 at 9:36 am

#24 Deplorable Dude on 10.23.18 at 6:46 pm

T2 game plan is to mess things up enough so it all explodes when the conservatives take over. It will take most of the con’s four year term just to fix all the problems generated by the libs, and little time to improve the economy.

In addition, the liberals (like the democrats down south) take marching orders from the far left global elite, Soros, illuminati, top global brass who are pushing the global economy towards a one world government, economy and religion. Someone has to roll the red carpet for the antichrist.

#169 Stan Brooks on 10.24.18 at 9:36 am

#153 Stan Brooks is a Kook on 10.24.18 at 7:53 am

Chilax,
You can get some hearth attack with all these emotions.
Not that you will be missed/there are 49 999 other realtors in GTA but still we don’t want that health system overloaded.

Old money you are saying?
How about Chicago, much more old/and new money than Toronto and prices 1/3 of GTA?

Any explanation?

Cheers,

#170 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.24.18 at 9:39 am

@ #154 Jayzus Kee-rist

I normally give beggar $5 – $20 ….”
++++

Really? Where do you live? I’d like to visit.

I have a couple of McDonalds coffee coupons in my truck ashtray for the inevitable “Vancouver shakedown” at a traffic light.
You know, the young 20 something with a sign, a knapsack and a nose piercing giving you the “please please I’m dying” look….
And after I hand them a coffee coupon worth about $1.50 I look around me in the stopped traffic at the “We’re Hiring Drivers!” and “Willing to train!” signs pasted on just about every commercial vehicle I see.
Lazy pricks that are earning their life of purgatory wasting the most productive period of their lives ……begging.

If you actually give $5 – 20 to every beggar that asks…. you’re even more of a fool than someone buying a housing in this market AND your perpetuating ( empowering?) beggars to continue their life of sloth, addiction and criminality.

McD’s coffee coupons is all they deserve ( and it costs you nothing) and hopefully they will be allowed to clean up in the restaurant washroom after their coffee “purchase”.
A “win win” in my book.

#171 The Real Mark on 10.24.18 at 9:47 am

#11 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.23.18 at 6:03 pm
@#2 Be for Real Mark
“the data most certainly does not support a rate hike, and probably more closely supports a rate cut.”
++++

Were you dropped on the head in the delivery room?

/////////////////

No, it was much later than that.

#172 Heloguy on 10.24.18 at 9:54 am

https://www.cbc.ca/archives/when-15-per-cent-was-a-good-rate-for-a-mortgage-1.4872597?fbclid=IwAR3ggF2n5qmWLWHsyokeElyPDPtJfFQX02Us1YNhsZu3_UO8kiZxC9EcrJ0

#173 Jesus Christ on 10.24.18 at 9:56 am

“A friend of your uncle… sure… – Garth”

I swear it is a true tale. Are uncle’s not allowed to have friends?

#174 Jesus Christ on 10.24.18 at 10:03 am

#170 Crowdedelevatorfartz

“If you actually give $5 – 20 to every beggar that asks…. you’re even more of a fool than someone buying a housing in this market AND your perpetuating ( empowering?) beggars to continue their life of sloth, addiction and criminality…”

Did you read my whole post cowboy? I said I did in times past give as much as $20 if I felt the person was actually down and out but have changed my ways. Call it a generous spirit and the fact that it is no biggee part with such sums. The founder of Second Cup, Frank O’Dea was an alcoholic street person begging for change and an individual who gave him a dime enabled him to make a call the AA that changed his life. It is in his books and he has mentioned it many times in his speeches.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yxZT1PJlbD8

Books[edit]
2007: When All You Have is Hope (Penguin Canada) ISBN 978-0-670-06427-4
2013 Do The Next Right Thing: Surviving Life’s Crises (Penguin Canada) ISBN 9780670065875

#175 Smoking Man on 10.24.18 at 10:09 am

Boom. Up she goes. Chuck in the carbon tax, sorry I mean the price on pollution. You now have the catalist of mass real estate sell off.

It’s coming..

#176 KLNR on 10.24.18 at 10:10 am

@#170 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.24.18 at 9:39 am
@ #154 Jayzus Kee-rist

I normally give beggar $5 – $20 ….”
++++

Really? Where do you live? I’d like to visit.

I have a couple of McDonalds coffee coupons in my truck ashtray for the inevitable “Vancouver shakedown” at a traffic light.
You know, the young 20 something with a sign, a knapsack and a nose piercing giving you the “please please I’m dying” look….
And after I hand them a coffee coupon worth about $1.50 I look around me in the stopped traffic at the “We’re Hiring Drivers!” and “Willing to train!” signs pasted on just about every commercial vehicle I see.
Lazy pricks that are earning their life of purgatory wasting the most productive period of their lives ……begging.

If you actually give $5 – 20 to every beggar that asks…. you’re even more of a fool than someone buying a housing in this market AND your perpetuating ( empowering?) beggars to continue their life of sloth, addiction and criminality.

McD’s coffee coupons is all they deserve ( and it costs you nothing) and hopefully they will be allowed to clean up in the restaurant washroom after their coffee “purchase”.
A “win win” in my book.
_____________________________________

would think most folks that resort to panhandling are suffering some form of mental illness.
fed/prov/municipal govs have really dropped the ball on this one. Ignoring the problem isn’t going to make it go away.

Does belittling these folks plight make you feel better?
god forbid a mental illness befalls you or your family

#177 Rabbitt One on 10.24.18 at 10:11 am

>#3 Learning To Invest on 10.23.18 at 5:17 pm

>Just curious why my high yields fell so much if the yields are rising. Are the High yield ETF and yields inversely proportional? Thanks for the posts..

In addition to price changes due to interest rate increase, HY bond and No-risk bond (Fed)’s spread is now much higher.
Therefore HY price is down.

#178 PastThePeak on 10.24.18 at 10:11 am

#168 fancy_pants on 10.24.18 at 9:36 am
#24 Deplorable Dude on 10.23.18 at 6:46 pm

T2 game plan is to mess things up enough so it all explodes when the conservatives take over. It will take most of the con’s four year term just to fix all the problems generated by the libs, and little time to improve the economy.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

It is highly likely that T2 will win the next election (whether majority of reduced to a minority). Due to a few simple reasons:
– Scheer is not well known, doesn’t have much gravitas, and the Conservatives have little platform presented
– Max Bernier bomber
– The economy is likely to still be doing well enough, employment low, by election time.
– Two terms is pretty common historically

While a 2nd fed Liberal T2 gov’t is clearly bad for the country, so is having a new Conservative gov’t get into power just to face the coming economic correction, and they take all the blame for issues, paving the way for Liberal rule into the 2030s. At least this way T2 will have to own it…

#179 Rabbitt One on 10.24.18 at 10:14 am

Sorry, HY bond and Fed bond’s spread is now much “narrower” = HY price lower than AAA Bonds

#180 KLNR on 10.24.18 at 10:14 am

@#168 fancy_pants on 10.24.18 at 9:36 am
#24 Deplorable Dude on 10.23.18 at 6:46 pm

T2 game plan is to mess things up enough so it all explodes when the conservatives take over. It will take most of the con’s four year term just to fix all the problems generated by the libs, and little time to improve the economy.

In addition, the liberals (like the democrats down south) take marching orders from the far left global elite, Soros, illuminati, top global brass who are pushing the global economy towards a one world government, economy and religion. Someone has to roll the red carpet for the antichrist.
__________________________________

ATTENTION SHOPPERS
tinfoil hats now on sale, aisle 666

#181 Stan Brooks is a Kook on 10.24.18 at 10:15 am

#169 Stan Brooks

“Old money you are saying? How about Chicago, much more old/and new money than Toronto and prices 1/3 of GTA?Any explanation? Cheers,”

You must have failed history in school Stanley. Chicago is much older than Toronto? Toronto was established in 1793 as York. Chicago was settled circa 1780. A whole 13 years older Stanley….Did you think Chicago was founded before America perhaps?

Want to go live in a Chicago ghetto? Go ahead Stanley . Except for the downtown core which is great, the rest of the city is a scary place. Been there many times on business. I stick to the downtown core and nothing else. When I did venture out on one occasion, the cabbie told me, en route to see a Frank Lloyd Wright home, “don’t walk around the neighbourhood. Call a cab when you are done and head back to downtown.” On another occasion as I flipped on the tv set on Monday morning before heading to a meeting the announced nonchalantly says, “there were 60 shootings in Chicago over the weekend…”

#182 ShawnG in TO on 10.24.18 at 10:23 am

> #175 Smoking Man on 10.24.18 at 10:09 am
> Boom. Up she goes. …

i hear music from Jaws, better fill up on popcorn, the good part is coming

#183 Ian on 10.24.18 at 10:25 am

Happy BoC day everyone!!!

Hope you all got rid of your real estate and debt…

#184 IHCTD9 on 10.24.18 at 10:43 am

#165 Wrk.dover on 10.24.18 at 9:10 am
My evacuated solar tube hot water system has just had it’s fourth anniversary, once again paying a dividend of $600 (=$750 of pre-tax earnings here) in electrical savings, according to the computerised controller.
_____

How do those tubes work in the winter? How hot can they get the water that flows through them?

#185 millmech on 10.24.18 at 10:54 am

This getting interesting, this place dropped 100k today,11%,by next year with five more rate increases will be priced right for the market For Sale | 1 – 597 Westminster Ave W, Penticton

#186 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.24.18 at 11:10 am

@#165 Wrk.Dvr
“My evacuated solar tube hot water system has just had it’s fourth anniversary, once again paying a dividend of $600 (=$750 of pre-tax earnings here) in electrical savings, according to the computerised controller.”
+++++

I’ve always been fascinated by this technology.
Whats the size of the vacuum tube bank.
Size of the hot water tank?
How warm does the tank get in the winter months?
Do you supplement the heat with a wood burning stove/ heat exchanger?

#187 Oft deleted much maligned stock.picker on 10.24.18 at 11:17 am

BANNED

#188 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.24.18 at 11:22 am

KLNR

Well
I used to work part time in a mental Hospital all through High School before the Feds closed most of them.
Does that count?

As for most of the beggars having “mental issues”.
Nice try.
The majority of young kids I see are dressed better than I am and they get to play poverty for a few hours each day.
The govt funds, addiction centers, Drop in sights, welfare, free transit passes, etc and we also have churches, food banks, on and on and on PLUS the unemployment rate is at record lows in BC.
You have to work harder to AVOID a job than finding one now a days.
My heart pumps purple pee for healthy a 20 year old kid with English as a first language, holding a stolen puppy up to my car window …… begging.

#189 SimplyPut7 on 10.24.18 at 11:41 am

“Governing Council agrees that the policy interest rate will need to rise to a neutral stance to achieve the inflation target,” policy makers led by Governor Stephen Poloz said…

And what is the definition of neutral rates?

‘Officials seem to be indicating they expect the current hiking cycle will include at least three more rate increases after Wednesday’s move, given the central bank estimates the neutral rate — a level that is neither stimulative nor contractionary — at anywhere between 2.5 per cent and 3.5 per cent.’

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/bank-of-canada-raises-key-rate-drops-pledge-to-move-gradually-1.1157338

What happens when the poor local speculators do not have enough money to close on the condos under construction?

How high do interest rates need to be to stop people from putting non-essential items on the HELOC?

When people stop buying non-essential items what will the owners of those businesses do?

The next 18 months in Toronto should be interesting.

#190 Stan Brooks on 10.24.18 at 11:50 am

#181 Stan Brooks is a Kook on 10.24.18 at 10:15 am

I am really concerned about your mental health.
You seem to scream all the time. Relax. I promise I will be patient with you.


Chicago Family Income
The ACS 1-year data shows the median family income for Chicago was $82,221 in 2016. Compared to the median Illinois family income, Chicago median family income is $5,271 higher. As with the median household income data, 2017 family income data for Chicago will be released in September of 2018.

Show dollars as: Nominal Real
Real Median Family Income for Chicago Illinois
2016 1 Year Change 3 Year Change
US $71,062 +2.81% +7.71%
Illinois $76,950 +2.85% +7.36%
Chicago $82,221 +3.64% +8.69%

People in Chicago earn more than people in Toronto.
Housing is 1/3 on average.

Quality of life is in the eye of a beholder.

There are many more dangerous areas in GTA today, than 10 years ago and the trend is not good, just wait for housing to collapse and then see what happens with all these ‘obedient’ citizens.There are areas that qualify as ghettos in GTA as well.

============================

Up it/the rate goes. We are literally hitting the wall in slow motion, as we speak. Fear fast evolves into panic and soon into outright hysteria.

In 2 years housing will be a dirty word and realtors will be erasing that experience from their resumes and potentially chased on the street by former clients.

#191 Ogopogo on 10.24.18 at 11:59 am

#2 The Real Mark on 10.23.18 at 5:12 pm
I’ve outlined the reasons over the past few weeks, but the data most certainly does not support a rate hike, and probably more closely supports a rate cut.
[…]
Maybe the BoC won’t go for a rate cut, but a rate hike, seriously?? It looks like the financial media has been seriously trolled by Poloz if they actually believe that nonsense.

Well, that backfired quickly. No wonder no one respects you in this blog.

Poloz made my day, for once. Up she goes, baby!

#192 Stan Brooks Is a Kook on 10.24.18 at 12:05 pm

#190 Stan Brooks

“I am really concerned about your mental health.
You seem to scream all the time. Relax. I promise I will be patient with you.”

That is the kettle calling the pot black if there ever was such a thing….LOL!

“People in Chicago earn more than people in Toronto.”

An insignificant amount Stanley. An inconsequential amount…

“There are many more dangerous areas in GTA today, than 10 years ago and the trend is not good, just wait for housing to collapse and then see what happens with all these ‘obedient’ citizens.There are areas that qualify as ghettos in GTA as well.”

I will have to stop this dialogue with you Stanley because I have to remind myself that I am talking to a mindless moron whose posts are in those rare moments he is released from his straight jacket…

Anyhoots, one final comment for kicks. If you think Toronto has ghettos on par with Chicago then you have never been to Chicago. Oops, forgot you inhabit a rubber room and your only excursions are to get your shock therapy….

Keep waiting for the 60-70% housing collapse in the GTA Stanley and keep spewing out your dribble on this blog. We need the comic relief…

#193 Y. Knott on 10.24.18 at 12:13 pm

– Have to throw this in here…

“Enjoy cycling this winter.”

It can be done – I did it for several years – but there are three things you MUST have:

1) fog-proof ski goggles ( – lot of sand, salt, crud flying-about on days when it ISN’T blowing a blizzard, and any other eye protection will fog-to-blind in the time it takes to tell about it.)

2) a good helmet (fell off at one point and landed on the back of my head on the ice; I’m here today telling you about it because I was wearing a helmet.)

3) Nokian carbide-studded bike tires; ask for them by name – and don’t waste your money on steel, steel studs wear-out in a couple months and Nokians will last you years. One winter there were two of us from the office who cycled all winter; I fell off once that winter, he fell off three times a week.

#194 milltown on 10.24.18 at 12:17 pm

anybody know the current b20 qualifying rate now that they raised?

#195 Howard on 10.24.18 at 12:21 pm

Here’s a term I’ve never heard or seen used before : Peak Profit.

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/us-stocks-slump-deepens-on-peakprofit-concerns-markets-wrap-1657826

#196 X on 10.24.18 at 12:32 pm

Instead of the carbon tax getting us at the pumps, why doesn’t gov’t mandate auto manufacturers to have to achieve a certain mileage to sell an auto in Canada?

My distance to work is what it is, and I can only buy the autos that are available on the market, so why not change that availability.

I mean, if I am going to get hit with an extra $2000 in gas tax over 6-8 years filling up, I would rather pay a premium for a hybrid car, and not get nickeled and dimed at the pumps. I can see the reduced emissions with, my better mileage, vs however the Liberals decide to piss away my carbon taxes paid.

I just seems so simple, and does not require as much oversight or intervention. I have not been told yet (and am not expecting to) how the gov’t is going to spend the carbon tax money and how much carbon emissions it will reduce.

#197 KLNR on 10.24.18 at 12:41 pm

@#188 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.24.18 at 11:22 am
KLNR

Well
I used to work part time in a mental Hospital all through High School before the Feds closed most of them.
Does that count?

As for most of the beggars having “mental issues”.
Nice try.
The majority of young kids I see are dressed better than I am and they get to play poverty for a few hours each day.
The govt funds, addiction centers, Drop in sights, welfare, free transit passes, etc and we also have churches, food banks, on and on and on PLUS the unemployment rate is at record lows in BC.
You have to work harder to AVOID a job than finding one now a days.
My heart pumps purple pee for healthy a 20 year old kid with English as a first language, holding a stolen puppy up to my car window …… begging.
_________________________________

So bitter.
I guess it’s different out on the west coast.
sure, you’re going to get the odd kid doing it on a lark but the vast majority are dealing with serious issues.

#198 Prince Polo on 10.24.18 at 12:48 pm

I tried to post a comment last week on the day with 300+ comments. Maybe I have problems clicking submit?

Anyways, just wanting to say to you Garth: sorry to hear about the abuse. Perhaps you can put on Taylor Swift’s “haters gonna hate” and pour yourself a double – neat.

Oh, now I see that maybe it was deleted due to mention of pop singers…. ;)

#199 Linda on 10.24.18 at 12:59 pm

#152 M.Ghandi: Given how you edited my quote, I have doubts that the quotes you attributed to John Kenneth Galbraith were exactly what he said. Certainly when I went searching for the quote none of the JKG quotes i found on poverty matched the words you cited in your reply.

You appear to require the appearance of the moral high ground, beginning with assumption of a user name synonymous with morality & advocacy for the disadvantaged. I make the point that one need not remain poor. I did not in any way imply that being poor was to be a loser; what I stated was that a belief in defeat is self afflicted.

Somewhere along the way working for minimum wage changed from ‘starting opportunity’ to ‘evil capitalist scheme to oppress’. Because, you know, everyone should start out at ‘the top’ regardless of skill, experience or work ethic. I do not agree, if only out of respect for those who paid their dues & worked to acquire the life skills & experience to move up to a better paid position. Is it hard working for less? Yes, it is. It is also one heck of an incentive to improve one’s lot in life. ‘Has it been done before? Yes, millions of times – so we know it works!’ (quote from Riders in the Sky Radio Theatre).

#200 Renter's Revenge! on 10.24.18 at 1:01 pm

#193 Y. Knott on 10.24.18 at 12:13 pm

– Have to throw this in here…

“Enjoy cycling this winter.”

It can be done – I did it for several years – but there are three things you MUST have:

1) fog-proof ski goggles ( – lot of sand, salt, crud flying-about on days when it ISN’T blowing a blizzard, and any other eye protection will fog-to-blind in the time it takes to tell about it.)

2) a good helmet (fell off at one point and landed on the back of my head on the ice; I’m here today telling you about it because I was wearing a helmet.)

3) Nokian carbide-studded bike tires; ask for them by name – and don’t waste your money on steel, steel studs wear-out in a couple months and Nokians will last you years. One winter there were two of us from the office who cycled all winter; I fell off once that winter, he fell off three times a week.

==================================

There’s a reason motorcycle season is from May to October.

#201 Ezzy on 10.24.18 at 1:04 pm

#17 Meghan

LOL that’s the best piece of sarcasm I’ve ever come across. Well done Meghan!

(In case I’m wrong in my assessment, however, see below)

As a born and bred Torontonian I can safely say it’s an alright city, mostly meh in the restaurants and entertainment arenas, cultural and religious sensitivities are generally available across Canada, and it’s not a global city, notwithstanding what every mayor tells us. Like, it’s an okay city, but it’s not memorable. I mean why else is Toronto always played off as some other city when it’s featured in movies? But hey, if you want an over priced condo or hole-in-the-wall then ya totally, Toronto is primo!

#202 Wrk.dover on 10.24.18 at 1:22 pm

#184 IHCTD9 on 10.24.18 at 10:43 am

The tubes are constructed identical to six foot long, two wall vacum core thermos bottles, with a heat absorbing blue inside finish. In the hollow cavity where you would put the coffee, is a copper tube with aluminium contact wings which contains acetone that heats and rises, releasing that heat at the top from its bulbous head that stuffs into a dry socket in a tubular manifold circulating food grade glycol into the house.

The bulb at the top of the tube will burn your hand when the tube is covered in ice, if the sun is shining.

That circulation pump can be powered by a solar electric panel, pumps with sun, doesn’t with none.

The glycol circulates into the house, where there are two flat plate heat exchangers, one is linked to the hydronic floor to exhaust excess heat, the other to a 40 gallon hot water heater, unplugged. Their pumps are controlled by a bought unit.

The solar tank is linked to a second plugged in hot water heater.

When I draw hot water, what ever the temperature of water is in the solar tank, replenishes the plugged in tank. Virtually every day for five months, the solar tank is at 46C (my setting choice) by supper time. It can fully recover from a shower in an hour when the sun is at the right angle, read on.

The basement floor is 21C all summer, from the excess. With a simple 9 watt exhaust fan sucking floor air to outdoors, no dehumidifier required. Does not smell like basement.

That is the bonus, uncalculated right there.

The collector is supposed to angle match your latitude, while facing due south, like the electric ones.

I stood mine like a picket fence running SE/NW, and get solar gain at dawn and dusk plus all winter when the sun is low in the sky, far beyond what the engineers intended. The trade off is nothing at mid day while the sun changes sides on the collector tubes, but it does recover from an end of day shower in the hour before the sun goes down, while other peoples collectors get no sun.

From now until April, I surrender all of the gain into the floor, unmeasured. Wood heated house with a bare foot warm basement floor, all winter. That’s different. We go away for up to two weeks mid winter and come home to find the three baseboard heaters have used ten dollars of power, set at 8C, and the floor is down to 10C.

I INVESTED in this after I read that these tubes are nine times more efficient than conventional flat plate design.

#203 Figus Makum on 10.24.18 at 1:30 pm

#163 the jaguar
@ #144 Howard–I don’t disagree with you. I also don’t like the way she antagonizes Putin and Russia, but this can be traced to her Ukrainian roots. Good and bad, I suppose. Like most things.
******************************************
I recall that our former PM, Stephen Harper, antagonized Putin in 2014 at the G20 mtg. by telling him: “Well, I guess I’ll shake your hand, but I only have one thing to say to you: you need to get out of Ukraine,”
Does that mean Mr. Harper has Ukrainian roots?

#204 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.24.18 at 1:32 pm

@#197 KLNR
“I guess it’s different out on the west coast.”
+++++

Yes it is,
The economy is booming, Help wanted signs on every block, the weather is nicer so “livin on the street” isn’t life or death 11 months of the year.
But apparently only young healthy caucasian people have ” mental issues” to deal with since they seem to be the predominant group at most traffic lights these days and yet we should give more than we already do.
When does it end?
When we’re all taxed penniless and begging?.

#205 Penny Henny on 10.24.18 at 1:42 pm

#184 IHCTD9 on 10.24.18 at 10:43 am
#165 Wrk.dover on 10.24.18 at 9:10 am
My evacuated solar tube hot water system has just had it’s fourth anniversary, once again paying a dividend of $600 (=$750 of pre-tax earnings here) in electrical savings, according to the computerised controller.
_____

How do those tubes work in the winter? How hot can they get the water that flows through them?

///////////////////////

My gas bill during the summer months (hot water heating) amounts to about $44.00/month.
Of which $20 is a customer fee and $5 or so is HST.
So the gas and delivery portion of my hot water heating bill is $20/ month or so. For my situation it is definitely not worth installing any other type of system.
Oh yeah, this is just a regular hot water tank (not vented).

#206 IHCTD9 on 10.24.18 at 2:05 pm

#196 X on 10.24.18 at 12:32 pm
Instead of the carbon tax getting us at the pumps, why doesn’t gov’t mandate auto manufacturers to have to achieve a certain mileage to sell an auto in Canada?
____

They do – although it’s mainly a regurgitating of the standards set in the US by the EPA, the CAFE requirements, and sometimes CARB. We get them this way either way.

The emissions levels and average fuel economy of a motor vehicle product line is VASTLY superior to that of even just 20 years ago.

The carbon tax is not about cleaning up the air, it’s about revenues. I don’t believe for a minute that a significant portion of that tax will end up back in our hands in the long run (just like how the now defunct “revenue neutral” Ontario Drive Clean program inexplicably started making tens of millions for the government under the Ontario Liberals – until they got caught…). The improvement in air quality will not be measured, and if the government actually wanted to be honest and measure the improvements – there would be none to document.

Anyone thinking that this tax will actually improve our air quality is simply allowing themselves to be led.

#207 M. Gandhi on 10.24.18 at 2:30 pm

#199 Linda

#152 M.Ghandi: “Given how you edited my quote, I have doubts that the quotes you attributed to John Kenneth Galbraith were exactly what he said. Certainly when I went searching for the quote none of the JKG quotes i found on poverty matched the words you cited in your reply.”

The quotes are accurate, I just have to find them in one of my Galbraith books. May take some time….

#208 kommykim on 10.24.18 at 2:49 pm

RE:#65 pay your taxes on 10.23.18 at 8:12 pm
I’ve got a question about rate reset preferred stocks. Do the rates reset at a predetermined date, or is it at the discretion of the company? Is there anything preventing a company from continuing to pay dividends at the lower rate instead of resetting it?

==============================

Like garth says, “read the prospectus” for these details.
But in general, most rate resets have fixed anniversary dates (every 5 years) where the interest rate to be paid resets to a new rate (Usually based on the 5 year government bond rate plus a spread). The company can call the shares back if they don’t like the new rate and pay you out (At a typical par value of $25) on those dates. Or they will let it reset as per the rules in the prospectus. Anything else would be “breaking the contract” spelled out in the prospectus.

#209 Damifino on 10.24.18 at 2:49 pm

#197 KLNR

Mr. Fartz can be rather uncharitable when it comes to panhandlers, but I can tell you that Vancouver is a city where one must choose their beggars wisely.

In my travels I see deeply disturbing cases of human misery on the streets. These aren’t people who’ve ‘fallen through the cracks’ so to speak, but victims of childhood abuse, abandonment and neglect who’ve been (probably literally) dropped on their heads.

Here, you learn to tell who is more or less ‘faking it’ and who is unquestionably messed up. I keep change in my pocket for the latter. Granted, it’s not much coming from a man who’s mother loved him and who lives like a king but they’re always grateful.

It’s interesting to note there’s one ethnicity you never, ever see begging on the street. I’ll let you guess which one that might be. Hint: It’s one that tends to honour, respect and care for their elders.

#210 Govt performance eval on 10.24.18 at 3:22 pm

Every job requires periodic evaluation. If you do not perform, you are fired.
We need an option to fire the govt for their stupidity rather than waiting 4 years.
I would be shocked if Mr. T is re-elected next yr.

#211 Steven Rowlandson on 10.24.18 at 3:23 pm

It seems that the prime rate really is going up! Triple digit losses on TSE and NYSE.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/4-of-canada-s-major-banks-raise-prime-rate-to-3-95-following-bank-of-canada-decision-1.1157512

#212 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.24.18 at 3:51 pm

@#209 Damifino

I tend to assume the “fakers” are the young healthy kids with clean clothes and spiffy knapsacks that walk quickly and endlessly from car to car..

The gaunt, legless, wheelchair bound wayward soul in filthy rags with an empty cup I see occasionally downtown on my walks…..I assume to be genuinely desperate.
I give him money…..but don’t tell anyone.

#213 IHCTD9 on 10.24.18 at 3:58 pm

#202 Wrk.dover on 10.24.18 at 1:22 pm
#184 IHCTD9 on 10.24.18 at 10:43 am

The tubes are constructed identical to six foot long, two wall vacum core thermos bottles, with a heat absorbing blue inside finish. In the hollow cavity where you would put the coffee, is a copper tube with aluminium contact wings which contains acetone that heats and rises, releasing that heat at the top from its bulbous head that stuffs into a dry socket in a tubular manifold circulating food grade glycol into the house..
____

So the heat in the acetone is transferred to the glycol via a spherical head (ie large surface) at the top of the tube? No glycol through the tubes then?

I always figured the heating medium was itself pumped through the tubes.

#214 Ubul on 10.24.18 at 4:00 pm

202 Wrk.dover

Thanks for the great details, that’s really awesome.

Are you using this brand, or something else?
https://shop.latitude51solar.ca/evacuated-tube-solar-collectors-p/tz-58-1800-30r.htm

It looks like these evacuated tube solar collectors could be also diverted over to heat the pool in the summer.

#215 Chinese Dude on 10.24.18 at 4:03 pm

If the economy is really good, how come TSX fell so much today?

Do the market makers worry about an incoming recession with the cost of money rising? After all, if people pay more on interest, they have to buy less goods and services.

Weed helped. What goes up goes down. Like Canopy – 73 to 49 in the blink of an eye. – Garth

#216 Matsebula on 10.24.18 at 4:19 pm

Hate saying it, but when we are running deficits in a fully employed economy, something is disconnected. Strip out housing from GDP and growth is far less strong. This climate change tax is ridiculous, and if Scheer was anything like Mulcair he would be having a field day in QP every day, all day, ripping apart JT.

Just after the election, rebates get smaller and smaller and the whole thing comes home to roost.

#217 Barb on 10.24.18 at 11:15 pm

#83 pay your taxes on 10.23.18 at 8:52 pm

“…Whatever CO2 reductions we make will be more than made up for in countries like India and China.”

————————————————————

plus all the spewing volcanoes in Costa Rica…

#218 Carrie Wong on 10.25.18 at 2:36 pm

Liberals and Trudeau are puppets of socialism. Canadians are so lost. Socialism only fails time and time again.