Stung

Lately some readers have accused me (among other things) of a political bias. That’s interesting. I was an economic nationalist/commie in my youth. Then a Tory. Elected as a PC in 1988. Lost a party leadership bid to Kim Campbell in the summer of ‘93 when Mulroney left. Ran again as a Con in 2005. Won, but rejected the social conservativism the party was embracing (and was kicked out for saying so). Sat as an independent in the House of Commons. Then accepted an invitation to join the Libs as a special advisor to the leader, working on environmental issues.

So, to summarize, my political career has been knit with a single thread – standing up for what I believed in. As age and experience gathered, those views changed. If yours have not, you’ve yet to mature. Nothing is black. Nothing is white.

Real estate is a common focus here, and nothing impacts housing more than politics. Governments routinely reward or punish homeowners or buyers. They let you raid your tax-free RRSP to get a house, for example. They shower incentives on first-time buyers, then turn around and slap surprise taxes on long-time occupants. They try to control rents, and pass laws making it harder (stress test) or easier (zero/40) to get a mortgage. They set the terms of home loan insurance, decide what the taxation of real estate sales should be and create the conditions determining interest rates.

So following the creation (partially by government) of a massive national property gasbag, we’re now into years where politicians attempt to crush the market because houses cost too much. Duh. That’s why this pathetic blog has been talking politics lately – since what do-gooder but naïve pols try will have large consequences.

Already happening, of course. Just wait until you see the October housing stats. Meanwhile everybody with a high-end house should be looking at what’s going down in Vancouver.

Rising mortgage rates, anti-foreigner taxes, the vacant house tax, the spec tax and the high-end property surtax – all political creations – have conspired to kill the market for expensive houses in YVR. Inventory is piling up dramatically. Sellers cannot sell. Especially creamed are those people on fixed incomes whose sole asset is their home, or investors who believed in bricks and mortar rather than stocks and bonds.

The detached market is crumbling. So are prices, and rents. Here’s a report from local broker Petr Vokoun: “The speculation tax, as well as the collapse in the housing market, is definitely going to affect rental rates in the high-end rental market. A $3 million house that would have rented for $5,000 a year ago will likely rent for around $4,000 a month today. What we’re seeing is that rental rates have decreased up to 20 per cent from the spring of 2017, and it’s getting even worse. And when you look at the ratios, if a person owns a $3 million property, to get $4,000 a month for it probably doesn’t make financial sense for them.”

So there you go. Cheaper houses and condos now cost more because of increased competition for ‘affordable’ homes as mortgage credit tightens. High-end houses are tumbling in value because of excessive taxation, but remain hopelessly unaffordable for average families. Homeowners everywhere, the bulk of them middle-class, are losing equity weekly. But if you can afford $4,000-$5,000 a month in rent, then fall to your knees and give thanks to the NDP, who are making mansions more readily available.

See what a great job political interference does in a marketplace? This is why I am a fiscal conservative, but grew a heart.

$          $          $

You remember Derek. Over the course of a year his story was told on this site, before he became a national news item – the poster guy for a real estate market toppled by its own speculative frenzy and indigestible avarice.

“When I went into this experience I had no knowledge things could turn out as they did,” he told me on Monday. “It was totally uncharted territory, and things certainly do not work the way people believe.”

Here are the facts: Derek listed his north-GTA McMansion in March of last year, just before the bubble burst. There were 18 frenzied showings in five days, followed by three offers, “with people waiting in cars outside. Insane.” The top two were for $2.25 million and $2.05 million. Derek picked the higher one after his agent did some investigation. “They were 1%ers with high income,” Derek says, “so everything looked great. We had no way of knowing they were so leveraged.”

The buyers panicked days later and walked, leaving only a partial ($30,000) deposit. Lawyers descended. The property was re-listed, eventually selling for $1.78 million after the market started to deflate. Negotiations, litigation and anxiety fell upon both parties as the legal bills mounted, and eventually a court date was set.

The judge ruled the former buyers were liable for the difference between the offer price and sale price, plus some legal expenses. The judgement: $470,0000. Derek rejoiced. The media pounced. His story was widely publicized as an example of what happens in a crashing market. Many people here called Derek out as greedy.

Then the buyers, who live in a million-dollar house and drive a Benz, filed for bankruptcy. That dragged on for months more before a final settlement was reached. At the end of the day Derek accepted $177,000 plus the deposit for a total of $210,000. To gain that he paid $120,00 in legal expenses, for a net of $90,000. He expects to receive a hundred grand by December, and the rest will be paid out in equal installments over five long years. Maybe.

So, I asked him, what have you learned?

“How deceitful people can be,” he said quickly. “This system is skewed to let people wriggle out of their debts and obligations. Sure, maybe I should never have taken that higher offer, since it was clearly bullshit. Maybe it never did pass the smell test – I just don’t know.

“In terms of the legal action, I would have tried harder to get them to the table, so we could have found some kind of negotiated settlement, instead of all that litigation.

“At the end of the day, we all got stung.”

150 comments ↓

#1 jojo on 10.22.18 at 4:41 pm

Crybaby and his band of socialists just wrote off a billion and some for Chrysler…..

No worries though

To socialists they believe money is created by God or pot plants.

Of course until it doesn’t.

Any person who has been through a serious recession can smell the napalm coming…

For those that have never seen a recession or 10% interest rates – you are simply boiling frogs.

Of course until you aren’t

#2 jojo on 10.22.18 at 4:43 pm

Is the tide out yet?
I wan to see the 99% swimming naked

#3 Kevin on 10.22.18 at 4:44 pm

I thought you said last week that the government don’t set the stress test and that it’s set by BOC? Sorry in advance if I’m mixing this up.

OSFI mandated the stress test. Political actions made that necessary. – Garth

#4 David Prokop on 10.22.18 at 4:49 pm

Can someone please explain to me, like I’m a 4 year old how the government calculates inflation? What do they throw in that basket that it comes up around 2% when everywhere you look you can see galloping inflation: housing, rent, food, insurance. Your dollar buys less and less every day, yet the government still looking for signs of inflation.
This must be the Greatest Lie Ever Told, to justify the theft from savers to speculators. Why does the government get a free pass??

#5 The Real Mark on 10.22.18 at 5:14 pm

“#1 jojo on 10.22.18 at 4:41 pm
Crybaby and his band of socialists just wrote off a billion and some for Chrysler…..”

Yet it was the Harper regime that actually made the loan. Instead of letting overcapacity in the sector liquidate normally. Last I heard the Tories were still running around claiming they left the country with a balanced budget, when in fact, they tacked on, annually, just as much debt as Trudeau has thus far. Not even adjusted for inflation or interest rates. Until they become honest about the disastrous fiscal record of the Harper regime, I just can’t see them getting many votes nor having much credibility in their attacks against Trudeau’s financial management record.

“what do they throw in that basket that it comes up around 2% when everywhere you look you can see galloping inflation: housing, rent, food, insurance.”

The Stats Can methodology is pretty rigorous and well regarded. Prices seem to be going down on most things I buy, and quality is going up. If anything, as I wrote yesterday, Bank of Canada policy has been overly tight and has kept inflation at rates far less than even justified by its own mandate. Essentially delivering a windfall to fixed income investors not justified by the state of the economy.

#6 K Teix on 10.22.18 at 5:15 pm

Keep doing what you’re doing Garth!

#7 Graeme on 10.22.18 at 5:16 pm

You stood up for what you believed in but your views changed? More than one way to interpret that.

Put it in context. If you learn nothing, it’s easy to be consistent. – Garth

#8 Ed on 10.22.18 at 5:18 pm

This is horrible. Derek sold at the right time, followed the rules, and got screwed. To call him greedy is ridiculous.

As for the people who made an offer they chose not to honour, it’s crazy that they can declare bankruptcy and maintain their lifestyle.

Strange world…

Thanks for the daily dose of perspective Garth…

#9 ShawnG in TO on 10.22.18 at 5:19 pm

if the offer didn’t pass the smell test, shouldn’t they…. sue the realtor? i guess now it’s not a good time. the realtors’ audi is on leasebusters

#10 NotLegalAdvice on 10.22.18 at 5:24 pm

Maybe I should change my career path and become a real estate litigation lawyer. Now seems like the right time!

#11 Dolce Vita on 10.22.18 at 5:26 pm

Reading RE Tweets (Saretsky, Pasalis, Punwasi, their acolytes, et. al.) you come to 1 conclusion:

Negative psychology has set in, and firm. Not a single story with good news about residential RE for months.

Next, come the inevitable large price drops. You need only read Flops Blog page for that – rare a sale with a profit after selling costs.

Price drops by end of Spring 2019 in the -30% range to correct to historical trendline pricing.

Subtract another 10% for Despair Phase psychology, as has happened in the past. -40% in total, probably more if we get an economic shock.

No slow melt either. The slow melt is years of small % drops to the bottom + prices recovering after that to the historical trendline, 10-20 year process.

It will be ugly for many to watch their RE asset wealth disappear rapidly. I believe it will be the largest residential RE asset wealth loss in Cdn. history.

This can come to no good end for anyone. That much wealth loss will affect the economy. RE is 20% of our GDP and a sizeable chuck of debt securitization.

November will be when we are told the gruesome details about price decimation.

RE Boards in October will still have their latent HPI type prices to lean on to forestall/fudge the truth.

October, November, who cares…it will get ugly, a price crash beginning in earnest by the end of this year.

Meanwhile, Gov’s in BC doing it all to appropriate RE wealth (while they still can) from the “paper wealthy”.

Hopefully, the rest of the economy will remain buoyant and take up the slack of crashing residential RE prices.

#12 meslippery on 10.22.18 at 5:43 pm

#4 David Prokop on 10.22.18 at 4:49 pm

Maybe cell phones ,tvs stuff you buy every five years or more. Every day needs way up or smaller package for same price.

#13 jess on 10.22.18 at 5:46 pm

quantity over quality

The United States alleged that between January 1, 2006, and December 31, 2011, UAMC knowingly submitted loans for FHA insurance that did not qualify. The United States further alleged that UAMC improperly incentivized underwriters and knowingly failed to perform quality control reviews, which violated HUD requirements and contributed to UAMC’s submission of defective loans.”…

Department of Justice
Office of Public Affairs
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Friday, October 19, 2018
Universal American Mortgage Company LLC (UAMC) Agrees to Pay $13.2 Million to Resolve False Claims Act Allegations Related to Loan Guarantees

https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/universal-american-mortgage-company-llc-uamc-agrees-pay-132-million-resolve-false-claims-act

#14 Smartalox on 10.22.18 at 5:48 pm

A $3 million dollar house still won’t rent for $4000/mo., at least not in South East Vancouver. I’ve been tracking rentals unscientifically on Craigslist.

We’re really bursting at the seams in our little 1br + den townhouse, but the rent is super cheap, and we like our neighbours.

Besides, it’s one thing to pay $1500/mo in rent; at $4000, I think I’d want to start putting that kind of scratch toward a mortgage.

#15 After Communism on 10.22.18 at 5:55 pm

Global government is inherently a communist idea. Nationalism is sometimes not commie. You have a commie thread in all your iterations.

#16 Eco Capitalist on 10.22.18 at 5:56 pm

@#4 David Prokop

This must be the Greatest Lie Ever Told, to justify the theft from savers to speculators. Why does the government get a free pass??

Because they no longer have guillotines to fear.

#17 WUL on 10.22.18 at 5:58 pm

I’m up in Fort McMurray for some lawyering. Got curious and checked out the FMREB stats.

Appears folks think this might be a good re-entry point.

Sept SFD sales up YOY (YTD) – up 21%.

Sept new listings YOY (YTD) – down 23%.

Sept active listings YOY (YTD) – down 27%

If memory serves, in the first half of 2014 before the Saudis opened the spigots, the average price for a SFD was ~ $740,000.

Now $567,500 or down ~ 23% over those three years or $172,500.

A melt, but not a particularly slow one.

#18 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.22.18 at 6:00 pm

As I recall.
The person that “outbid” everyone else for Derek’s house was a Realtor.
And Mr Realtor is now bankrupt?
Wont be the only one I’m sure.

#19 Smartalox on 10.22.18 at 6:01 pm

@Garth,

You should offer up your services to advise the current Liberal government on issues related to personal finance.

If the current government’s goal is to ‘build middle class wealth’ or, in the event of widespread wealth immolation resulting from an implosion in residential real estate, ‘RE-build middle class wealth’ I suspect that they could really benefit from your wisdom.

Any party could, actually, but I’d be less inclined to vote for a party with social conservative mindsets.

#20 ContentIn306 on 10.22.18 at 6:04 pm

I really dig the “fiscal conservative who grew a heart” thing you’ve got. Shame that isn’t better represented in our political options at the polls. Part of what keeps me reading.

#21 Victor V on 10.22.18 at 6:05 pm

#14 Smartalox on 10.22.18 at 5:48 pm
A $3 million dollar house still won’t rent for $4000/mo., at least not in South East Vancouver. I’ve been tracking rentals unscientifically on Craigslist.

We’re really bursting at the seams in our little 1br + den townhouse, but the rent is super cheap, and we like our neighbours.

Besides, it’s one thing to pay $1500/mo in rent; at $4000, I think I’d want to start putting that kind of scratch toward a mortgage.

=========
=========

Our family rents a $3 million SFH for $5,000 month in one of Toronto’s best neighbourhoods. To the average person, this feels like a crazy amount of money to ‘throw away on rent’, but the reality is we could never afford to own this house between mortgage, property taxes and maintenance.

So we live a millionaire’s lifestyle, and our investment portfolio income helps pay for much of the rent.

There’s more than one way to get ahead, and renting can work nicely in the luxury end of the market, provided one has a solid lease, good landlord and is properly saving and investing the capital that would normally have gone towards a down payment.

#22 Re: inflation on 10.22.18 at 6:11 pm

@David Prokop:

Inflation calculation assumes that people switch to “alternatives” if things get too expensive.
For example, you eat beef several times a week. Then, when it gets too expensive, you switch to chicken. Thus, your protein consumption did not go up in price, so no inflation there.

Thus is a more extreme example, things are not that drastic across all inflation calculations, but this is actually done.

#23 Jungle on 10.22.18 at 6:16 pm

ZOLO showing a strong market still for Toronto. 1.4M holding for detach, under 3 MOI. Condos holding as well, about 2 MOI

Report in the news from Credit Suisse says Canadian millionaires ($1M USD) to raise by 54% in 5 years.

There’s wealth here.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/millionaires-wealth-credit-suisse-canada-1.4870248

#24 Guy in Calgary on 10.22.18 at 6:22 pm

Did the buyers walk because they did not want to close or because they couldn’t close?

I assume the 2 offers both required financing due to the price but if one of them didn’t I’d be taking that deal all day.

#25 Guy in Calgary on 10.22.18 at 6:24 pm

8 Ed on 10.22.18 at 5:18 pm
This is horrible. Derek sold at the right time, followed the rules, and got screwed. To call him greedy is ridiculous.

As for the people who made an offer they chose not to honour, it’s crazy that they can declare bankruptcy and maintain their lifestyle.
—————————————————————–

Do you know what happens after declaring BK? I assure you with 99.99% certainty that after declaring BK, they are not maintaining their previous lifestyle lol.

#26 Observer on 10.22.18 at 6:25 pm

Found this in my tweeterating browsing: https://twitter.com/JamesAddison/status/1054491538279944192

“There’s not a lot of dramatic & over-reaching pricing examples in #victoriabc’s #realestate, but this is one. Re-listing/price drop chaos!

Spent 69 DOM starting at $979k, dropped to $865k, then cancelled. Re-listed at $815k, finally sold for $751k after another 27 DOM.”

Haircut indeed!

#27 Triplenet on 10.22.18 at 6:29 pm

Derek (and his Realtor) accepted an offer that did not require the Buyer to identify or disclose their financial position with regard to the purchasers mortgage financing – and all other pertinent financial details.
….and no legal review.
Who is surprised ?

#28 leebow on 10.22.18 at 6:37 pm

What is the most annoying thing is that the regulations often give mixed incentives and can vary so much between jurisdiction.

It wouldn’t be surprising at all if, contrary to BC’s government reckless policies, Comrade Ford introduces his own reckless policies that “supports” builders and “homeowners” with some sort of a subsidy. Both Ford and Horgan will somehow claim that their policies are *pro-middle class*. They just can’t leave people alone.

#29 Young Boomer on 10.22.18 at 6:39 pm

Heard this ‘joke’ once from a stockbroker – could easily apply to some lawyers — “I’ll take your money and my experience and turn it into my money and your experience!”

#30 Sebee on 10.22.18 at 6:43 pm

If You Are Not a Liberal at 25, You Have No Heart.
If You Are Not a Conservative at 35 You Have No Brain.

Old saying but holds decent amount of truth. Even for Garth looking at his bio.

#31 Remembrancer on 10.22.18 at 6:46 pm

#4 David Prokop on 10.22.18 at 4:49 pm
Can someone please explain to me, like I’m a 4 year old how the government calculates inflation?
————————————————————–
Hey you’re paying for it so may as well watch / look…

– jaunty sound track video here> https://www.statcan.gc.ca/eng/sc/video/cpi

– lots of words here>
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/181019/dq181019a-eng.htm

#32 Stormy Daniels on 10.22.18 at 6:46 pm

Hey, $90k is not bad Derek. Now you can finally buy yourself a brand new Tesla!

#33 Ex Pat Canuck on 10.22.18 at 6:49 pm

Well, hey, I never thought you were ever pretending not to be who you are politically – I always feel like I know where you are coming from base on the actual words you choose to write down and share, and I respect your choices/opinions. I like to hear thoughts and views from all sides, and I wish more would do the same in these politically divided times. We have much more in common that we have differences…need for clean air, water, good food, housing etc. Appreciate your blog Garth, I don’t always agree with you as you know but that does not mean that I don’t respect your right to express your beliefs and concerns. I’ve always said I’d rather have a moderate conservative or liberal politician in office as most of us fall somewhere in the middle politically and moderates work well for us. This is no longer a part of the political landscape here in the previously united states much to the detriment of a great deal of the population. Cheers from Oregon!

#34 Capt. Serious on 10.22.18 at 6:51 pm

#4 David Prokop on 10.22.18 at 4:49 pm

Can someone please explain to me, like I’m a 4 year old how the government calculates inflation?

Sure, roughly they take a representative basket of goods and price that. They also take into account that goods that you buy may improve for the same dollars out the door (which is deflationary).
Actually the practice of calculating a single core CPI ended not that long ago. They now use three measures
of core inflation to gauge core inflation. You can read the gory details here if you are really interested:
http://www23.statcan.gc.ca/imdb-bmdi/document/2301_D64_T9_V1-eng.htm

When people say the government doesn’t know how to calculate inflation, I just kind of laugh. They have a very transparent and thorough calculation methodology, if one wants to read about it.

#35 Andrewski on 10.22.18 at 6:51 pm

A buddy’s wife is a real estate lawyer in Oakville. “ The RE lawyers are swamped with lawsuits from reneged offers”!

#36 Danny on 10.22.18 at 6:59 pm

I like that you said that you grew a heart. I see that many times in your blog when you talk about the human factor.

Experience and understanding the predicament of a range of residents in Canada is surely your teacher and we the readers benefit from your sensitive statements and honesty especially when you remind us that we are all descendants of immigrants expect for the natives.

Too bad so many conservatives in “Smiley face” Ford Government…..refuse to come out to community meetings, residents associations meetings and even talk to the press (except their flagship…and public relations propaganda folks……in the Toronto Sun Newspaper). Is the new Ontario Government Leader …going to put a muzzle on their cabinet members…just like Harper did?

Is the phantom Mayor of Toronto….Tricky Dougie Ford……going to help developers or tenants and home buyers ……it is such a secret…guess Ford needs more free lunches with the Toronto Real Estate cartel….and those once conservative politicians who run the Board….before he decides and calls us all “my friends”: his usual and now tiring introduction to his two syllable dictums.

As to government intervention…..many European governments put an extra tax if anyone sells a house within 5 years of purchase…..to minimize flipping and speculating in the housing market….also encourages commitment to neighborhood.

Low interest and flipping have made Toronto’s housing market especially in town houses and condos…too high for too long.

In Etobicoke…town houses still selling for $1 million and condos at highest level ever…..no drop in prices.

Unraveling will take some time when sellers look back only one year….a year of high record prices.

#37 Corpoate welfare CONservatives on 10.22.18 at 7:04 pm

jojo on 10.22.18 at 4:41 pm
Crybaby and his band of socialists just wrote off a billion and some for Chrysler…..

No worries though

To socialists they believe money is created by God or pot plants.

Of course until it doesn’t.

Any person who has been through a serious recession can smell the napalm coming…

For those that have never seen a recession or 10% interest rates – you are simply boiling frogs.

Of course until you aren’t

____^___^_______________^__^^^^^^^^^

You do umknow it was that corporate socialist for the rich HARPER who gave Chrysler that money? CON conservatives are usually so stupid.

#38 My 2 cents on 10.22.18 at 7:06 pm

purpose of deposit is to show good faith and become part of purchase price
this buyer shows up with a low deposit- bad faith
offer says they agree to pay a further deposit at a later date, more bad faith
buyer show up next day and wants out of the deal= more bad faith.

Derek decides he want to force the contract.
Many bidding wars ended up with non closing last year, and vendors were surprised on closing day, but Derek had red flag after red flag and instead of doing the right thing ie sign a release on day 2 and let the dead beats go, he decides to flog them to death

#39 diharv on 10.22.18 at 7:08 pm

#5 The RealMark The Stats Can methodology is pretty rigorous and well regarded. Prices seem to be going down on most things I buy, and quality is going up. If anything, as I wrote yesterday, Bank of Canada policy has been overly tight and has kept inflation at rates far less than even justified by its own mandate. Essentially delivering a windfall to fixed income investors not justified by the state of the economy.
Prices down and quality up ? Fixed income returns a windfall ? Are we on the same planet ? There’s not one sentence in that paragraph that isn’t idiotic .

#40 Linda on 10.22.18 at 7:10 pm

Derek’s story just underlines the fact that appearances can be deceiving. 1% earners with a ‘million dollar’ house & a Bemz had to declare bankruptcy. Just because someone lives a ‘rich’ lifestyle does not mean they have any actual money. Many who are living high on the hog are leveraged to the hilt. All it takes is a hitch in the income flow to crumple their house of cards around them.

Now to the rental wars. I’ve read a few posts that claim renters have ‘all the rights’ & talk about trashed units. Question re: damage deposit. If one is truly concerned, can one request a bond be posted for the unit value by the occupant as part of the rental agreement? That way if they trash the unit the bond (or insurance policy) pays for any damages. In the new era of legal marijuana, perhaps this would ensure that landlords do not end up with a trashed grow-op at the end of a lease. Or would such a request/requirement be forbidden under the Landlord Tenant Act?

#41 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.22.18 at 7:14 pm

@#31 Stormy D
“Now you can finally buy yourself a brand new Tesla!’
++++

Before Tesla goes bankrupt!
:)

#42 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 10.22.18 at 7:18 pm

Nothing is selling you dirty lying SHYSTERS. Prices are falling month after month. Houses are falling in prices by hundreds of thousands of dollars.

Happy Housing Crash Everyone!

#43 beelzebub on 10.22.18 at 7:30 pm

41 Happy Housing Crash Everyone!

Nothing is selling you dirty lying SHYSTERS. Prices are falling month after month. Houses are falling in prices by hundreds of thousands of dollars.

Happy Housing Crash Everyone!

—————————————————–
LOL welcome back!!!

#44 Freddie Greenspan on 10.22.18 at 7:50 pm

“At the end of the day, we all got stung.”

Well everyone except the lawyers….

#45 young & foolish on 10.22.18 at 7:52 pm

So blog dogs … those smugly rubbing their hands with glee over the hopeful demise of the housing market …. prepare for lower spending, recession, and forget about 7% equity returns for awhile …

Oh, and BTW, keep on renting …

There is no recession on the horizon, and no correlation between the returns of a balanced, diversified portfolio and the Canadian real estate market. After several years commenting here, isn’t it time you grew up? – Garth

#46 For those about to flop... on 10.22.18 at 7:55 pm

Pink Pumpkins being carved in Vancouver.

These guys are acting like they’re freaking out.

I only just featured them last week when they lowered the price to 1.29, a couple of days later it was off the market and I thought that they had a buyer.

Nope, put it back on today at 1.25, which seems like an insignificant reduction, but the obviously didn’t feel confident about getting someone to pay over ask,what is what they need.

If this was a beater detached,then no problems,but this is a townhome that the media keeps telling us is still going strong.

Unless….unless…

Fool me once, shame on me.

Fool me one thousand,four hundred and eighty six times,shame on you…

M44BC

242 Waterleigh Drive, Vancouver paid 1.22 November 2016 ass 1.32

Jul 13:$1,390,000
Oct 15: $1,290,000
Change: – 100000.00 -7%

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/242-waterleigh-drive

#47 yvrmc on 10.22.18 at 7:57 pm

Interesting point to ponder…. today I was on Zolo north Van mls listings. I saw a house listed for 1.2 mil. I checked the photos and saw that it needed updating. I contacted the agent and said I can’t go 1.2 but could probably do mid 900s. Her answer, “Try the offer it just might go.” I was a little shocked at the response. Just highlights an asking price is just that, an ask.

#48 arfmoocat on 10.22.18 at 7:58 pm

Is the high over…lol

The Globe and Mail reports in its Saturday edition that the idea that today’s pot companies will be tomorrow’s multibillion-dollar behemoths have driven their shares to astonishing heights, but this is completely divorced from today’s financial results. The Globe’s David Milstead writes that the vast majority of listed cannabis companies are unprofitable, making a conventional price-to-earnings ratio incalculable. The 62 companies that make up the Solactive North American Marijuana Index trade at an average of almost 84 times sales. By contrast, the average company in the S&P/TSX Composite trades at a little less than three times sales. Many investors have stayed on the sidelines, and they missed a remarkable run in the shares in the two months leading up to legalization. Mr. Milstead wonders if the great pot boom will turn into a big bust. Caution is creeping in. Earlier this month, Veritas analyst Stuart Rolfe initiated coverage on four cannabis stocks — Aphria, Aurora, Canopy and Cronos — with “sell” ratings. In the case of Canopy and Cronos, Veritas’s estimates of the shares’ worth are less than half current market prices. Mr. Rolfe said that planned capacity expansions risk overrunning demand.

#49 Xpat on 10.22.18 at 7:59 pm

#23 Jungle on 10.22.18 at 6:16 pm

Report in the news from Credit Suisse says Canadian millionaires ($1M USD) to raise by 54% in 5 years.

There’s wealth here.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/millionaires-wealth-credit-suisse-canada-1.4870248

——

Everyone is a millionaire because 70% of Canadians own a home. Wait until they try to make those paper gains real.

Real money has to come from somewhere at that point.

#50 Xpat on 10.22.18 at 8:02 pm

#44 young & foolish on 10.22.18 at 7:52 pm
So blog dogs … those smugly rubbing their hands with glee over the hopeful demise of the housing market …. prepare for lower spending, recession, and forget about 7% equity returns for awhile …

Oh, and BTW, keep on renting …

—-

Pigs get slaughtered my friend

#51 Trump on 10.22.18 at 8:06 pm

AND THE LAWYERS…….
They just get richer no matter what the situation.

#52 KLNR on 10.22.18 at 8:07 pm

@#4 David Prokop on 10.22.18 at 4:49 pm
Can someone please explain to me, like I’m a 4 year old how the government calculates inflation? What do they throw in that basket that it comes up around 2% when everywhere you look you can see galloping inflation: housing, rent, food, insurance. Your dollar buys less and less every day, yet the government still looking for signs of inflation.
This must be the Greatest Lie Ever Told, to justify the theft from savers to speculators. Why does the government get a free pass??
_________________

shhhhhhhhh, you’ll wake up the stan brooks.

#53 yvrmc on 10.22.18 at 8:13 pm

HHCE , wondered where you had gone. This is your time, you should be posting every day now.

#54 largeypoo on 10.22.18 at 8:27 pm

So when the houses plunge in value across the land I would like to know how cities plan to build all this affordable housing when the property tax base will start shrinking. They could raise rates but who is going to pay if the amount is as big as a mortgage payment. A lot of unsustainable things going on in Canada we really have nothing going for us right now. The venture market just hit a 10 year low, despite pot stocks being in the index. The oil and gas market is being obliterated by lack of pipelines and prices there are in the toilet. Real estate is crashing all around as rates rise….what do we have left to keep this going any longer? As Peter Shiff wrote how many more canaries have to die?

#55 Long-Time Lurker on 10.22.18 at 8:30 pm

#133 millmech on 10.22.18 at 3:48 pm
#111 ICTD9
Pot is now the go to for reducing morning sickness, a couple of guys at work swear by it as it enables their wives to overcome the morning hurls.

>I guess they’ve never heard of Fetal Alcohol Syndrome?

>You’re getting closer to me insulting you, Justin. I’ll just go with maybe your mom smoked.

https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/fetal-alcohol-syndrome/symptoms-causes/syc-20352901

Fetal alcohol syndrome

Fetal alcohol syndrome is a condition in a child that results from alcohol exposure during the mother’s pregnancy. Fetal alcohol syndrome causes brain damage and growth problems. The problems caused by fetal alcohol syndrome vary from child to child, but defects caused by fetal alcohol syndrome are not reversible.

There is no amount of alcohol that’s known to be safe to consume during pregnancy. If you drink during pregnancy, you place your baby at risk of fetal alcohol syndrome.

If you suspect your child has fetal alcohol syndrome, talk to your doctor as soon as possible. Early diagnosis may help to reduce problems such as learning difficulties and behavioral issues….

#56 Allen McBay on 10.22.18 at 8:35 pm

Garth, I thought with that picture and your topic of politics that you were hinting at running for the Green Party in 2019!

#57 Ace Goodheart on 10.22.18 at 8:36 pm

If you think what happened to Derek was bad, wait until people start learning about all the stuff that’s gone down with syndicated mortgages. That’s all coming down the pipe. people are going to lose millions. A billion maybe. And they’re all regular folk who invested their life savings

#58 will on 10.22.18 at 8:41 pm

#4 David Prokop

Check out: http://www23.statcan.gc.ca/imdb/p2SV.pl?Function=getSurvey&SDDS=2301

at the store where i work the “price collectors” are there at least once a week entering numbers into their handheld devices.

#59 yorkville renter on 10.22.18 at 8:46 pm

Tory re-elected Mayor… sucks to have Faith!

Stuff it xenophobes

#60 will on 10.22.18 at 8:49 pm

“I am a fiscal conservative, but grew a heart.” – Garth

Got it. Thanks Garth.

a friend of mine asked me in a text the other day what i thought of hunter harrison, and i went into my long rant about hunter harrison. after a few paragraphs of text, he said i sounded like a socialist. if that is true then i guess i have something in common with socialists. but i just think of myself as a fiscal conservative with heart. thanks for the language Garth. it’s exactly as you say. it’s not black and white.

#61 Ustabe on 10.22.18 at 8:50 pm

#39 Linda:
Now to the rental wars. I’ve read a few posts that claim renters have ‘all the rights’ & talk about trashed units.

Anyone who comes at it from that perspective is either not a landlord or is promulgating a political position.

You are renting bedrooms, not welcoming someone into the military or a cult where you can inflict certain behaviour and proscribe others.

A result of offering a home/condo/townhouse for rent is that the folks renting it may or may not keep it pristine. They may also engage in a promiscuous lifestyle, vote for the wrong party, eat the wrong food, drive the wrong car…all things you can do little about.

What you do is have in place a proper plan to mitigate stuff…be it a hole in the drywall or tenancy regulations you regard as one sided.

I live in BC. All our rental property was in Alberta. That was for a number of reasons but jurisdictional regulations were top of mind.

As for damage, well after 30+ years of running multiple units I certainly do have some stories but none are earth shaking, none are poor me, none would dissuade me from doing it again were I to be 40 years younger.

The folks who take the time to complain, on this blog or any other, are just that..complainers. Those of us who chose real estate to make a living generally just do that.

I will say this, my brother (partner) and I, in and around year 10, made a pact…we would not own nor rent out a place that we, ourselves, would not live in. That alone mitigated many issues.

I’m sold out and retired now…still get Christmas cards from some of our former tenants.

just saying.

#62 Comrade premier horgan on 10.22.18 at 8:52 pm

We will get you back in the fold one day comrade turner… I believe you have a green hummer… it’s in your soul.

#63 OttawaMike on 10.22.18 at 8:54 pm

And the realtor walked off free. Where is the liability and errors omissions insurance on the realtor for not performing the proper due diligence on the buyers?

As for politics, do yourself a favour and listen to Enright’s Sunday interview of Scheer. To my own dismay, I found my self agreeing with many things the guy had to say:

https://www.cbc.ca/radio/thesundayedition/the-sunday-edition-october-21-2018-1.4866236/andrew-scheer-on-how-canada-would-be-different-if-he-were-prime-minister-1.4869863

#64 Keith on Rio on 10.22.18 at 8:55 pm

At the end of the day you got stung…….and the lawyers got paid first.

#65 Al on 10.22.18 at 9:06 pm

“Or would such a request/requirement be forbidden under the Landlord Tenant Act?”

No damage deposits allowed in Ontario.

#66 acdel on 10.22.18 at 9:20 pm

No need for explanations regarding your background or beliefs. We have two choices, read your blog or don’t!

Personally, I will keep on reading! :)

#67 will on 10.22.18 at 9:23 pm

as a fiscal conservative i think i have more in common with the liberals, the ndp, and the greens. and just about nothing in common with the so-called conservatives. they are conservative in name only. and they really don’t like people who are fiscally conservative.

#68 islander on 10.22.18 at 9:26 pm

Sellers can sell in any market when buyers perceive they’re getting their monies worth. Until recently many buyers of SFH in YVR were not paying attention to ‘the house’ – as obvious teardowns were selling for astronomical prices. Those days are over.
Now local buyers realize that they may actually have to live in these dumps (maybe for many years) and are having second thoughts. No more unloading onto the next ‘greaterfool’.
No more bidding wars and ridiculous offers.
Sellers who have for decades neglected to maintain their properties are having a hard time unloading them.
Buyers are having inspections done (imagine that) and are finding long terms issues with many older houses in YVR.
Mould, rot, drainage issues, creaky foundations, leaky roofs, leaking siding ….the list goes on.
Concerned about paying over a million dollars to house their families in buildings that in other jurisdictions would be condemned, buyers are having second thoughts.
About time.

#69 Dolce Vita on 10.22.18 at 9:35 pm

#23 Jungle

For 416 RE asset wealth I hope you are correct (as in bad for economy if this drops by a lot).

However, consider your sources and others tracking the Toronto RE market argue a 9 mo. time shift behind (a near mirror when time shifted) YVR’s plummeting price drops in %:

https://sixhousingsense.com/2018/10/11/toronto-vancouver-comparison-shifting-timelines/

Note, YVR had a Dead Cat Bounce in price. 416 Land half way thru its Dead Cat Bounce.

The chart will be updated in October.

Expect a down trend. Both are subject to the same interest rate increases and lending practices/rules.

#70 greyhound on 10.22.18 at 9:35 pm

Jack and Jill are 30 years old, live next door to each other in identical houses. They make the same annual income, have the same 3-member families. Jack buys a boat, Jill buys a mutual fund.
Fast forward 30 years. Now 60, Jill has a nest egg, Jack has an old boat.
Jack writes to his MP, “we’re starving out here; you gotta tax Jill and give the money to me or we’re going to vote for your opponent.”

#71 Tedfiftyfour on 10.22.18 at 9:38 pm

Derrick
Accepts the highest price with $30,000 deposit that should have been no less than $100,000
Greedy greedy greedy. Anybody who has a house to sell worth 2.5m is no fool but they are Greedy greedy greedy

#72 Fish on 10.22.18 at 9:39 pm

What today’s savers can learn from today’s seniors about retirement planning
Jason HeathJason Heath
May 23, 2018 6:15 AM EDT

Last Updated May 23, 2018 6:15 AM EDT

https://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/retirement/what-todays-savers-can-learn-from-todays-seniors-about-retirement-planning

Filed under:
Personal Finance Retirement

#73 For those about to flop... on 10.22.18 at 9:56 pm

Race to a million.

Burnaby edition.

This detached on Gilley Ave just sold.

The details…

8626 Gilley Ave,Burnaby.

Originally asking 1.27

Just sold for 1.00

Assessment 1.23

50 x 200 lot.

Leading edge of Vancouver is already well under a million in East Van.

Richmond just under a million.

Burnaby just going under now.

Apparently Zillow is only adding 50k Canadian addresses to their system.

I prematurely dusted off my golf clubs.

You boys and girls are stuck with me for a little while longer…

M44BC

https://www.zolo.ca/burnaby-real-estate/8626-gilley-avenue

#74 Proud Drega on 10.22.18 at 10:00 pm

DELETED

#75 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.22.18 at 10:05 pm

Not even 12 hours after the new Vancouver city council is elected and the (lack of ethnic diversity) whining begins.

8 of the 10 councillors are women.
But apparently the “issue” is….. all 10 councillors and the Mayor are white…….

Never mind that the asian community was well represented in the candidates that ran and lost.

Niki Sharma, Lawyer, activist, Senior Ministerial Assistant,former southasian elected to the Van Parks Board Council, etc., etc.,etc….. tweeted last night’s election results were….
” The unbearable whiteness of election results” in reference to the inordinate amount of caucasians on Vancouver City Council after this election……

And of course CBC 6:30 News gave her 7 minutes to essentially accuse the voters of Vancouver of racism…..

……Not for voting for who they felt would do the best job…..no no.
Its because we’re all racist.

God bless post election sour grapes…..

One can only imagine the National uproar if a white candidate complained about non caucasians winning en mass…….

#76 Wanting to be stung on 10.22.18 at 10:11 pm

Someone sting me please. A house sold for 1.78 mil, a hundred grand this year, and maybe a free 20k for each of the next five years. Probably not worth going through all that legal BS to gain an extra 90k, but I’ll bet the transaction with the second buyer was effortless and the gain tax free. Stung … Please ….

#77 Fish on 10.22.18 at 10:32 pm

Estimating the cost of CPP additions for employees
Here’s what we can expect to pay under the new system

By: Doug CarrollSeptember 21, 2018 12:00

https://www.advisor.ca/tax/tax-news/estimating-the-cost-of-cpp-additions-for-employees/

#78 D.D. Corkum on 10.22.18 at 10:43 pm

#30 Sebee on 10.22.18 at 6:43 pm

If You Are Not a Liberal at 25, You Have No Heart.
If You Are Not a Conservative at 35 You Have No Brain.

Old saying but holds decent amount of truth. Even for Garth looking at his bio.

————

Didn’t Garth do the opposite, in a way? Guess that means he has neither heart nor brains, or the saying is wrong. :p

#79 Smoking Man on 10.22.18 at 10:52 pm

Chuck in a carbon tax, out tomorrow, and rising rates, slowing economic growth. Lack of investment. More regulations, red tape on doing business.

I figure the real estate decline is about to hyperbolic.

Canadas trees eats more Carbon than Canadians produce.
All other 1st world countries are bailing on the Paris accord.

Liberalism is all about power and force you to change your behaviour.
They get off on that.

Wondering if T2 is looking at the crowds at Trump ralies.

#80 viorelli on 10.22.18 at 10:56 pm

I really, really dislike globalists and the commies. Heard somewhere on the news today that Canadians should be happy as $ 4000 net worth puts you above the 50% of the world’s population and if you clear $1800 per month it will automatically put you in the top 10% of the world’s population. As the globalists take away more and more from you (soon they will come for your pension, housing, fair share and healthcare no doubt), they want you to feel happy about where you are, even though the standard of living had eroded significantly for many in North America over the past 20 years. My relative in Vladivostok clears roughly $ 1900 per month, but the cost of living including housing is not comparable to Vancouver. In Vancouver to have the same standard of living you’ll need above $ 7000 per month after taxes.

#81 Doug in London on 10.22.18 at 11:03 pm

Am I asking too much for governments to leave real estate alone and let market forces take care of it all?

#82 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.22.18 at 11:13 pm

Garth,
You walked among the giants in Canadian politics.
Why do you bother with us lowlifes?

#83 Smartalox on 10.22.18 at 11:15 pm

[email protected] #63:
Thanks for the link. I read the article, didn’t listen to the tape, but confirmed to me that Scheer and his Conservatives are still more interested in complaining about the current government than having any solid ideas about doing ANYTHING differently, let alone better.

Except, possibly building the Energy East Pipeline. IF he can somehow manage to clear the roadblocks that confounded everyone else. How many speculative clauses would that be?

but everything else? Trade? We could have done better. How? Not a word. the environment?All will become clear. What will become clear? The air? the water? Is this policy by magic 8-ball, or what? Take on the Saudis?

Scheer’s running campaign-style ads in Vancouver, talking up his mom’s hard work as a nurse. Not much about his hard working career as a student council politician, though, or even his record as an MP.

#84 Ustabe on 10.22.18 at 11:29 pm

jojo on 10.22.18 at 4:41 pm
Crybaby and his band of socialists just wrote off a billion and some for Chrysler…..
No worries though
To socialists they believe money is created by God or pot plants.
Of course until it doesn’t.

First, the automakers paid back a good chunk of their bailouts. The governments, federal and provincial, took ownership positions in the new, restructured entities as partial payment that have been quite profitable as well.

The loans being written off were to the old corporate entities (that no longer exist) under restructuring/bankruptcy protection; they were to keep the plants open and the workers paid until the assets could be transferred to the new corporate entities. So, a few billion in exchange for keeping a few dozen plants, related parts suppliers and half a million auto workers employed for a while? not a bad deal.

The government never expected to get this part of the bailout back. It got a good chunk of the “rest of” the bailout back. Accounting practices cover rules on how/when write downs like this can happen, this is business as usual, move on.

And by the way it was your boy Stephen Harper who doled out the money and the terms and conditions…kind of disingenuous to now pin the blame on the current Prime Minister.

And, you are way off topic. I guess your need to place a less than thought out post bashing the current government overrides your ability to, you know, actually contribute to the conversation.

#85 viorelli on 10.22.18 at 11:50 pm

@ # 75, “Not even 12 hours after the new Vancouver city council is elected and the (lack of ethnic diversity) whining begins.
8 of the 10 councillors are women.
But apparently the “issue” is….. all 10 councillors and the Mayor are white…….”

The PC is running amok wild here in BPOE! They have their priorities instead of focusing on the housing crisis, the homeless crisis, the overdose crisis, you name it. My friend and a good former old business partner was recently accused by someone of hiring mostly male employees. He said: “it’s my business which I built from scratch and I decide whom I hire or fire. I don’t want to be another false victim of me too movement and be accused of something that I did not do 30 years ago! Now ff off!” The accused said she will bring it to the humans right council! Insane times. Move your business to China or Russia, it is not all lost there yet.

#86 Concerned Reader on 10.23.18 at 1:02 am

Mr. Turner I would be interested in a post where you outline what policies you would implement or scrap as a benevolent dictator to fix our housing market. Or at least the housing markets in our two most skewed markets. Obviously you would reverse all recently implemented taxes, but would you still allow people to raid their RRSPs?

Really, I would be interested in any post where you outline what policies you would like to be implemented in our country regardless of the topic. It seems pretty safe to assume that you would reverse marijuana legalization.

#87 MaxBerniersShorts on 10.23.18 at 1:22 am

Wow, an impressive 3.4% of the Toronto mayoralty candidate and right-wing loon Faith Goldy. Now will those posters who were plumping for her please slither back under your rocks.

#88 NoOneOfConsequence on 10.23.18 at 1:27 am

I have been tracking rents for quite a while now.
I am seeing widespread drops in rental prices for very nice homes. It’s possible to rent 4 and 5 million dollar homes for only $4000 – $5000 per month now.
Even in West Van – there are some 10 million dollar homes only asking $6500 per month for rent.

#89 Smoking Man on 10.23.18 at 1:40 am

DELETED

#90 Newguy on 10.23.18 at 1:54 am

It seems the only ones that always win are bankers and lawyers

#91 Smartalox on 10.23.18 at 1:55 am

Victor V @ #21:

When I was growing up in Toronto in the 1980s, my parents rented a large house (6br) in the Forest Holl district in Toronto, and paid between $2500 and $3000 per month in rent. I figure the same house would be worth between $3M and $4M now.

Say what you will about inflation and the soaring cost of Real Estate, but rents certainly have not risen at anything approaching the same pace. At least not for detached properties.

#92 Smoking Man on 10.23.18 at 2:09 am

Being good to your fellow humans should not involve taking a 45 magnem, putting to your temple and pulling the trigger, figartivly speaking.

Butts has a damaged mind, his dad was proud coal miner, had best buds under ground. It emberested this intellectual sporting an obidince certificate of pure intellectual achievement.

You want to save the world. Cut taxes and waist. Grow the pie. Take the crumbs and give it to the downtroughten.

Shrinking the pie by high taxes only make every more miserable, it will make the 3rd world unlucky bitch starve to death.

See Garth, I have a heart too.

Re think your attraction to globalisn. Shrinking pies do nothing for humanity.

Grow the pie, make it bigger, given them crumbs so the beasts who had bad luck growing up in a land where daddy got a bonner with no judgement or responsibility.

Not my fault as a 1/2 geek and a 1/2 Serb.

I’m not white. I get a pass

Only growth, will save them. T2 and Soros will kill them.

#93 NoName on 10.23.18 at 2:14 am

I was red proofing some of the emails that i have sent earlier today, and i come to conclusion that i couldn’t write my way out of the paper bag.

As my propensity to misspell is increased greatly over last while, i come to conclusion that relying only on google’s adaptive learning keyboard, or microsoft spell checker in my case futile. I managed to teach them wrong.

What is interesting during same period i solely focused on acquisition and knowledge of technical skills vs communication and networking skills, i can say that my emotional attachment to everything technical did not served me well.

So I’m on my quest is to learn how to spell without pressing f7 or using other left mouse click.

I’m having that funny feeling that will power alone will not be enough…

#94 Oft deleted much maligned stock.picker on 10.23.18 at 2:24 am

BANNED

#95 Rene on 10.23.18 at 3:08 am

MIght be time to focus on the lawyers egregious costs!

#96 Stan Brook's Psychiatrist on 10.23.18 at 5:52 am

#52 KLNR on 10.22.18 at 8:07 pm
@#4 David Prokop on 10.22.18 at 4:49 pm
Can someone please explain to me, like I’m a 4 year old how the government calculates inflation? Your dollar buys less and less every day, yet the government still looking for signs of inflation.
This must be the Greatest Lie Ever Told, to justify the theft from savers to speculators. Why does the government get a free pass??
_________________

shhhhhhhhh, you’ll wake up the stan brooks

Too late! Stanley is up and we just let him out of his straight jacket. He is going over his burrito index. He is foaming at the mouth over his inflation numbers. Apparently the burrito guy gave him an extra large burrito yesterday after he saw Stanley shaking violently after his latest round of shock treatments. Stanley can’t stop muttering, “huge burrito equals huge inflation, Venezuela style hyperinflation is coming!!” Get ready folks, Stanley is heading over to his keyboard now….

#97 Tater on 10.23.18 at 7:49 am

#57 Ace Goodheart on 10.22.18 at 8:36 pm
If you think what happened to Derek was bad, wait until people start learning about all the stuff that’s gone down with syndicated mortgages. That’s all coming down the pipe. people are going to lose millions. A billion maybe. And they’re all regular folk who invested their life savings
—————————————————————–

The lucky ones will lose their savings. The unlucky ones borrowed from a HELOC for these investments.

#98 Remembrancer on 10.23.18 at 8:10 am

#67 will on 10.22.18 at 9:23 pm
as a fiscal conservative i think i have more in common with the liberals, the ndp, and the greens. and just about nothing in common with the so-called conservatives. they are conservative in name only. and they really don’t like people who are fiscally conservative.
————————————————————–
will you hit the nail on the head, not enough smart fiscal policy and too much a coalition of special interest small “c” social conservative axes to grind by people who spend too much energy on not liking “others” or protesting some local / regional slight. Great for a talk radio show or blog’s ratings, lousy for forming a multi-term majority government that accomplishes meaningful economic progress for the population as a whole…

#99 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.23.18 at 8:19 am

@#71 ted54
“Anybody who has a house to sell worth 2.5m is no fool but they are Greedy greedy greedy”
++++

No not greedy, just smarter than the greaterfool that PAID for the house.

And if a greedy “flipper” buys (in what turns out to be a falling market)….who’s fault is that?
The sellers?
My god the way some of you people think is truly mind boggling.
Next time you sell a car for more than its worth…stop the sale and tell the buyer they are paying too much and give them their money back.
Tell them there is an identical car for sale on Kijiji for a lower price.
Feel better now?

#100 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.23.18 at 8:32 am

Hmmmm

Italy’s populist govt 5 Star Movement seems Hell bent on spending the Economy into the toilet as fast as they can…..
Will the EU enforce sanctions against the prolific spending Italians a la Greece?
Only Angela Merkle ( or her successor in a minority coalition) knows for sure……..

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-italy-budget-basic-income/dusty-files-and-paper-clips-behind-italys-welfare-revolution-idUSKCN1MX1OK

#101 Smoking Man is a Loser on 10.23.18 at 8:45 am

#92 Smoking Man

“Not my fault as a 1/2 geek and a 1/2 Serb.”

If we are going to start talking numbers let me give you one. You are 100% a drunk loser….:)

#102 KLNR on 10.23.18 at 8:53 am

@#71 Tedfiftyfour on 10.22.18 at 9:38 pm
Derrick
Accepts the highest price with $30,000 deposit that should have been no less than $100,000
Greedy greedy greedy. Anybody who has a house to sell worth 2.5m is no fool but they are Greedy greedy greedy
_____________________________

lol, has nothing to do with greed.

#103 JT on 10.23.18 at 9:11 am

Welcome back Happy Housing Crash Everyone! Always enjoy your posts!

#104 Ace Goodheart on 10.23.18 at 9:32 am

Serious fire sale developing in the equities markets. Not quite time to jump in yet but things are looking very cheap.

This is the thing with interest rate tightening cycles. Everyone sells their equities to pay down debt as they can’t afford the rate increases so you get these wonderful miss priced equities being sold at discounts to their valuations that are just unreal.

Like a kid in a candy shop. I love it when this happens.

Freed up a few hundred k for my 2019 shopping spree. Just waiting for one more rate increase…..

Be greedy when others are fearful.

If you want to buy equities you want markets to be in decline. Not rising.

This is shaping up to be a market crushing event that is going to increase my net worth considerably.

#105 James on 10.23.18 at 9:37 am

#92 Smoking Man on 10.23.18 at 2:09 am

Being good to your fellow humans should not involve taking a 45 magnem, putting to your temple and pulling the trigger, figartivly speaking.

Butts has a damaged mind, his dad was proud coal miner, had best buds under ground. It emberested this intellectual sporting an obidince certificate of pure intellectual achievement.

You want to save the world. Cut taxes and waist. Grow the pie. Take the crumbs and give it to the downtroughten.

Shrinking the pie by high taxes only make every more miserable, it will make the 3rd world unlucky bitch starve to death.

See Garth, I have a heart too.

Re think your attraction to globalisn. Shrinking pies do nothing for humanity.

Grow the pie, make it bigger, given them crumbs so the beasts who had bad luck growing up in a land where daddy got a bonner with no judgement or responsibility.

Not my fault as a 1/2 geek and a 1/2 Serb.

I’m not white. I get a pass

Only growth, will save them. T2 and Soros will kill them.
___________________________________________
Not bad 1/2 Geek only seven spelling mistakes. Now you get to go sit in the corner now with the pointy hat!
Wow do you start drinking before typing or just type while your drinking?

#106 Evangeline on 10.23.18 at 9:39 am

#86 Concerned Reader on 10.23.18 at 1:02 am “Mr. Turner…. I would be interested in any post where you outline what policies you would like …”

I agree, that would be interesting reading. I know one thing he’d do is increase TFSA contribution room.

#107 Smoking Man on 10.23.18 at 9:40 am

101 Smoking Man is a Loser on 10.23.18 at 8:45 am
#92 Smoking Man

“Not my fault as a 1/2 geek and a 1/2 Serb.”

If we are going to start talking numbers let me give you one. You are 100% a drunk loser….:)
…….

When you mine for truth. It can only be found at the bottom of an empty bottle. Not ashamed. Try it some time.

#108 James on 10.23.18 at 9:40 am

This market is starting to flatten out. I feel that the end is Nigh. Could be the Black Swan is about to spread her wings on this bull.

#109 For those about to flop... on 10.23.18 at 9:44 am

I’ve got no money to give away,so I am generous with my time…

M44BC

“Wealthiest People in America & Their Generosity.

Becoming a successful billionaire is the dream of many Americans. But often times people are more impressed by the charitable actions of billionaires, rather than by their success. This may be why Forbes included a new philanthropy score to its latest 400 billionaires list. Take a look at our chart below to see the wealthiest 30 Americans and their philanthropy score.”

https://howmuch.net/articles/top-30-wealthiest-people-in-america

#110 45north on 10.23.18 at 9:51 am

Washed Up Lawyer: If memory serves, in the first half of 2014 before the Saudis opened the spigots, the average price for a SFD was ~ $740,000.

I cannot think how the Saudi Royal Family could undermine the Kingdom more thoroughly than it has with the murder of Khashoggi. What a bunch of fools.

In final months, Khashoggi repeatedly hit nerves as persistent critic of Saudi Arabia

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/jamal-khashoggi-saudi-arabia-timeline-1.4872817

#111 Evangeline on 10.23.18 at 9:58 am

#84 Ustabe on 10.22.18 at 11:29 pm

“So, a few billion in exchange for keeping a few dozen plants, related parts suppliers and half a million auto workers employed for a while? not a bad deal.”

Thanks for your post, that was interesting. Was that transaction related in any way to new conditions in the USMCA?

#112 Ubul on 10.23.18 at 9:59 am

#104 Ace Goodheart on 10.23.18 at 9:32 am

Freed up a few hundred k for my 2019 shopping spree. Just waiting for one more rate increase…..

—-

In other words, you sold, as well, something…

#113 Penny Henny on 10.23.18 at 10:09 am

Perhaps Derek’s big mistake in selling his house was in sending the two highest offers back to see if they would improve their bid. (This is what I read in a news article).
Had he not done this it may have been a very different story.

#114 Ubul on 10.23.18 at 10:15 am

#100 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.23.18 at 8:32 am

Hmmmm

Italy’s populist govt 5 Star Movement seems Hell bent on spending the Economy into the toilet as fast as they can…..
Will the EU enforce sanctions against the prolific spending Italians a la Greece?
Only Angela Merkle ( or her successor in a minority coalition) knows for sure……..

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-italy-budget-basic-income/dusty-files-and-paper-clips-behind-italys-welfare-revolution-idUSKCN1MX1OK

According to the article, the new welfare policy is designed to lift 5 million Italians out of poverty.

It seems like the populist government is hellbent to send a message to EU about taking care of the 5 million Italians first, before taking care of others, outside of the EU.

#115 n1tro on 10.23.18 at 10:40 am

#75 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.22.18 at 10:05 pm
Not even 12 hours after the new Vancouver city council is elected and the (lack of ethnic diversity) whining begins.
———————
Reverse racism. But it’s alright since she is a minority and a woman…those 2 things will get you far in life in 2018. I’m only half as lucky.

#116 dharma bum on 10.23.18 at 10:46 am

#1 jojo

Any person who has been through a serious recession can smell the napalm coming.
——————————————————————–

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nx5N-4JvVyk

#117 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.23.18 at 10:46 am

@#107 Smokie
“When you mine for truth. It can only be found at the bottom of an empty bottle”
++++
Quoting Hemmingway now Smokie?
Im impressed

#118 When Will They Raise Rates? on 10.23.18 at 10:49 am

correction, 2 weeks ago:

https://www.greaterfool.ca/2018/10/10/plop/#comment-617174

Every correction, the same moans and whimpers. – Garth

#119 Howard on 10.23.18 at 10:49 am

The major indices are breaking down. This feels like it might be “it”. One chartist I follow (yes, go ahead and laugh, some of them are worth reading) has tentatively gone bearish on the major US indices at least in the short to intermediate term after being a very consistent equity bull the past few years. He wasn’t convinced by the January correction, and was proven right.

#120 Fish on 10.23.18 at 11:25 am

Canada Pension Plan enhancement

https://www.canada.ca/en/services/benefits/publicpensions/cpp/cpp-enhancement.html

#121 Gravy Train on 10.23.18 at 11:30 am

#104 Ace Goodheart on 10.23.18 at 9:32 am
“Serious fire sale developing in the equities markets. Not quite time to jump in yet but things are looking very cheap.[…]” Yes, I agree—esp. in emerging markets. Very tempting to ‘buy the dips’, but I’m just waiting on a few financial statements before I do. Are we catching a falling knife? :)

#122 Ace Goodheart on 10.23.18 at 11:31 am

RE: #100 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.23.18 at 8:32 am

” Hmmmm

Italy’s populist govt 5 Star Movement seems Hell bent on spending the Economy into the toilet as fast as they can…..
Will the EU enforce sanctions against the prolific spending Italians a la Greece?”

The old order is re-establishing itself like it always does. People forget history very quickly.

Back in the 1990s when I was traveling in Greece and Italy, the remnants of the last financial crisis could be seen quite readily in the valuations of the currency. $1000.00 Greek Drachma was worth about 90 cents CDN, and $1000.00 Italian Lira was about 88 cents CDN.

There are certain realities of this world that you simply do not get around. One of those is that certain places will always be poorer than other places. Certain countries have predictable currency crises, which happen at predictable time intervals. Greece has pretty much had theirs, Italy is next.

The problem that Greece and Italy have right now, is they do not print their own money anymore, so they cannot just devalue their currencies and keep going. The train wreck is much more interesting, and lasts for years while they cling to the Euro and all the financial stability that it brings to their banking systems.

But the writing is on the wall here. Neither Italy nor Greece will ever repay their debt, and they are both pretty much insolvent. It is just a slow motion train wreck in progress.

#123 Shortymac on 10.23.18 at 12:27 pm

That house down the street from me that I have been on the market since July has supposedly sold, I’m going to hunt down the actual facts when I get home.

This house had been relisted constantly between 800k-700k during that 4 months. My bet is that it went for under 700k.

#124 James on 10.23.18 at 12:36 pm

#117 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.23.18 at 10:46 am

@#107 Smokie
“When you mine for truth. It can only be found at the bottom of an empty bottle”
++++
Quoting Hemmingway now Smokie?
Im impressed
_______________________________________
A writer of fiction is really… a congenital liar who invents from his own knowledge or that of other men.

Ernest Hemingway

#125 Marco on 10.23.18 at 1:33 pm

jojo on 10.22.18 at 4:43 pm
Is the tide out yet?
I wan to see the 99% swimming naked

Oh, you do not want that. Naked, they can get bad lusty ideas about your womenfolk

#126 Johnny on 10.23.18 at 1:35 pm

Hear we go again with Garth bemoaning the poor millionaires in BC who will experience a long overdue housing crash. The real problem should have been addressed 10-20 years ago with the central bank not cutting interest rates to record low levels and leaving them there too long causing rampant speculation. And the con government should have never loosened mortgage standards..5 percent down..40 year mortgages..those are the real two issue.
Now Garth wants to blame the BC government for causing all this angst when it was clearly policies from decades ago that are to blame. This bubble was gonna pop one way or another..lets just get it over with and watch the devastation.
Do we really care about people spending 2 million dollars for a tear down shack or rich millionaires having to pay more taxes for their second home which is empty most of the year..really??

#127 America is Great? on 10.23.18 at 1:45 pm

#109 For those about to flop… on 10.23.18 at 9:44 am

“Becoming a successful billionaire is the dream of many Americans. ”

Actually that is a pipe dream of the highest magnitude. The dream of many Americans is to avoid bankruptcy due to medical expenses and not have to spend their working lives paying off student debt. Becoming a billionaire? You have to be kidding….

#128 In Garth We Trust on 10.23.18 at 1:53 pm

“Lately some readers have accused me (among other things) of a political bias.”

All nonsense Captain Garth. You are the bearded mystic financial sage, all knowing, all wise, debunker of scandalous politicians, crystal ball gazing financial oracle, Harley riding badass, champion of financial literacy, lone voice of financial reason crying out in the financial wasteland of Canada and finally just a down to earth jolly good fellow! Carry on undeterred!

#129 Gravy Train on 10.23.18 at 2:02 pm

#109 For those about to flop… on 10.23.18 at 9:44 am
“Becoming a successful billionaire is the dream of many Americans. But often times people are more impressed by the charitable actions of billionaires, rather than by their success.” I certainly am. Warren Buffett has given away to charity more than three times Donald Trump’s net worth.

According to the article you posted, Floppy, “George Soros gave away more than any other [billionaire] at a total of $32 billion, or 79% of his wealth, given to charity.” I can’t understand why Smokey finds Soros so deplorable. Do you suppose it’s really Smokey who’s deplorable? :)

#130 jess on 10.23.18 at 2:35 pm

#23 Jungle on 10.22.18 at 6:16 pm

loto millionaires!

Canada had 1.3 million millionaires in 2018 and 1 –
when i win the lottery Friday I will need to call Garth.

#131 Smoking Man is a Joke on 10.23.18 at 2:39 pm

#129 Gravy Train

“I can’t understand why Smokey finds Soros so deplorable. Do you suppose it’s really Smokey who’s deplorable? :)”

Duhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

#132 jess on 10.23.18 at 2:40 pm

Violation Tracker Parent Company Summary
Parent Company Name:
Credit Suisse
Ownership Structure:
publicly traded (ticker symbol CS)
Headquartered in:
Switzerland
Major Industry:
financial services
Specific Industry:
banking & securities
Penalty total since 2000:
$9,233,499,630
Number of records:
18
#of records

toxic securities abuses $6,335,300,000 4
tax violations $1,800,000,000 1
investor protection violation $458,554,714 5

read further violations here

https://violationtracker.goodjobsfirst.org/parent/credit-suisse

#133 Bob on 10.23.18 at 3:17 pm

Lawyer’s fees of 120k is criminal for something so straightforward.
I feel sorry for the seller, not the buyers. Hopefully, they had to pay 120k in lawyers blackmail fees also.

#134 Jack Stamos on 10.23.18 at 3:24 pm

John Tory which never was a conservative is reelected and now don’t be surprised that the typical homeowner will see a $1,500 total increase in 4 years garbage tax, water rate increase, property tax increase. Fools!

#135 jess on 10.23.18 at 3:33 pm

finance running dry ?
Thousands of residential wells ran dry in California’s Central Valley region during the state’s years-long drought.

…”The cost to dig a new well with a new pump and equipment can be $19,000—$30,000 or more. It’s an expense out-of-range for most working-class families. Affected homeowners often live in fear that they’ll lose their homes.

“If you don’t have potable water at your house, your house can be condemned. A condemnation proceeding is grounds for defaulting on your mortgage, which is grounds for a foreclosure,” explains Jesse M. Keenan, a visiting scholar with the San Francisco Fed’s Community Development department.

Compounding the problem, banks and brokers won’t lend on an existing house that doesn’t have public water or a functional well.

One solution is bridge financing.

Bridge financing allows homeowners to take out a short-term loan to reconstruct wells, making homes habitable and also eligible for traditional financing again. Such a program was put in place as a partnership between Northern California Community Loan Fund, a local Community Development Financial Institution (CDFI), and Self-Help Housing. The state made grant dollars available to help homeowners construct new wells. While the program’s funds are almost tapped out, it serves as a promising model for other CDFIs.

https://www.frbsf.org/our-district/about/sf-fed-blog/california-drought-dries-up-central-valley-lending/
====================================

Q&A from:
https://www.frbsf.org/community-development/blog/qa-climate-adaptation-and-resilience-from-a-community-development-perspective/

What is ‘climate gentrification’?

JMK: Climate gentrification is a theory that explains the disruption in property markets and communities stemming from changing consumer preferences based, in part, on a given geography’s exposure and its infrastructural and institutional capacity to adapt to climate change impacts. For example, in Miami, low and moderate income residents residing in high elevation areas are finding themselves increasingly priced out, in part, from increased speculative investment in these higher elevation markets that are anticipated to be superior investments in the long term when compared to lower elevation areas that are already experiencing nuisance flooding. However, this may also play out in a variety of geographies exposed to forest fires, water shortages, or landslides that are being driven in their frequency and/or intensity by climate change impacts.

There are three pathways by which climate gentrification may manifest. The first pathway is the Superior Investment Pathway. In this case, people move—and shift their investment—away from a zone of high exposure and low resilience to an area of low exposure and high resilience, as described in the Miami example. The second pathway is the Cost Burden Pathway. Here, you can have something like inverse gentrification—where the cost burden of living in a vulnerable area is so high that it drives people out. For example, the costs from rising insurance bills, increased taxes, and an overall loss of economic productivity collectively operate to force people of lesser means out. Eventually, only the wealthy can afford to live—or rebuild—in these high exposure areas. The third pathway is the Resilience Investment Pathway. This pathway runs counter to the dominant narrative in which people think of resilience as an absolute good without realizing that there are always trade-offs. In this pathway, resilience investments operate to increase the value of a particular market or sub-market to such an extent that it increases the area’s desirability and rents go up. This is an unintended consequence of resilience that has actually operated to drive out the very people that the investments were intended to protect. It forces us to question and think carefully about who pays and who benefits from resilience investments. Given local government’s bias to preserve a tax base, these issues will be increasingly exacerbated as we make more public and private investments in resilience, adaptation, and hazard risk reduction.

read more @

#136 Stan Brooks on 10.23.18 at 3:34 pm

#96 Stan Brook’s Psychiatrist on 10.23.18 at 5:52 am
#52 KLNR on 10.22.18 at 8:07 pm
shhhhhhhhh, you’ll wake up the stan brooks

————————————-

Hahahahaha,

That was funny, Sauter du coq à l’âne.
Happy carbon tax, folks. With HST on top of it.

Moving it to the other trouser and sipping a glass of Jack Daniels. T2 will take of all of ya. He is da men.
How are the sales, fellas? The empty stomachs playing the funeral march?

#137 Stan Brooks on 10.23.18 at 3:41 pm

#122 Ace Goodheart on 10.23.18 at 11:31 am

And how many new immigrants from Italy or Greece have you seen in Canada in the last 30 years?

Exactly zero, that is right.

https://www.pexels.com/search/italy/

https://www.pexels.com/search/greece/

and Canada:
https://www.pexels.com/search/canada/
(warning, 85 % of the pictures have snow or ice)

#138 NoName on 10.23.18 at 3:44 pm

#129 Gravy Train on 10.23.18 at 2:02 pm
#109 For those about to flop… on 10.23.18 at 9:44 am
“Becoming a successful billionaire is the dream of many Americans. But often times people are more impressed by the charitable actions of billionaires, rather than by their success.” I certainly am. Warren Buffett has given away to charity more than three times Donald Trump’s net worth.

According to the article you posted, Floppy, “George Soros gave away more than any other [billionaire] at a total of $32 billion, or 79% of his wealth, given to charity.” I can’t understand why Smokey finds Soros so deplorable. Do you suppose it’s really Smokey who’s deplorable? :)

—-
buffet gave more, around 46b since 2k and bill did around 50-something with in same tame frame. Both numbers are bigger than 36…

By being filantropist my self, last year i came across book: Who Really Cares: The Surprising Truth About Compassionate Conservatism, by by Arthur C. Brooks. It was interesting read.

#139 Stan Brooks on 10.23.18 at 3:47 pm

Canadians getting richer, if you believe it:

Federal carbon tax rebates will exceed the cost for most people affected

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/trudeau-says-cash-back-federal-130634578.html

so house prices will keep going up?

Here my bottom starts hurting really bad from all that laughing.

Chao.

#140 Victor V on 10.23.18 at 3:59 pm

1/3 of Canadians fear bankruptcy ahead of Bank of Canada rate decision

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/1-3-of-canadians-fear-bankruptcy-ahead-of-bank-of-canada-rate-decision-1.1156593

Canadians are growing increasingly anxious about their ability to handle higher interest rates, with a new survey showing a rising proportion of consumers fear they will be pushed over the brink.

Indeed, one-third of respondents to an Ipsos survey conducted on behalf of MNP said they’re concerned higher interest rates could push them toward bankruptcy, marking a slight uptick since the previous survey in June. Meanwhile, almost half of respondents (45 per cent) said they’re already feeling the effect of higher rates.

“With little decrease in household debt and the pace of rate hikes expected to accelerate, we will likely see a more immediate and significant effect on borrowers with rate increases in the future,” said MNP President Grant Bazian in a release.

The reality of higher rates is expected to be on full display Wednesday, with investors almost universally expecting the Bank of Canada will raise its benchmark interest rate to 1.75 per cent from 1.5 per cent. The bank has already raised that main policy rate four times since the summer of 2017.

#141 Ustabe on 10.23.18 at 4:00 pm

#111 Evangeline
Thanks for your post, that was interesting. Was that transaction related in any way to new conditions in the USMCA?

I can’t answer that but I would add that the US “wrote off” multi billions at the same time. Pure accountancy move, nothing more. No one, Canada or US, is taking actual physical dollars and shredding them.

This is simply balancing the books off some years along.

#142 Stan Brooks on 10.23.18 at 4:08 pm

Mark’s deflation in action:

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/growing-inflation-risks-in-america-by-stephen-s–roach-2018-10

Therein lies the Fed’s dilemma. Knowing full well that monetary policy works with lags of 12-18 months, the central bank has to be forward-looking, setting its policy rate on the basis of where it thinks inflation is headed, not on the basis of a backward-looking assessment of where inflation has been. And that’s precisely the problem: Based on the confluence of global and domestic pressures outlined above, 3-3.5% inflation is well in sight over the next year.

============================

Oops, Steve (Poloz)

#143 Arctic Gringo: Qallunaaq on 10.23.18 at 4:10 pm

The National Revenue Minister is proposing things again:

http://nunatsiaq.com/stories/article/65674canada_tax_agency_pitches_minor_change_to_northern_residents_benefit/

https://www.canada.ca/en/revenue-agency/programs/about-canada-revenue-agency-cra/acts-regulations/forward-regulatory-plan/current-initiatives/travel-expenses.html

Now I need to keep track of the Y-fare on the date of travel, before applying any fare discount codes. Prior to that, I could simply email the airline requesting lowest return airfare, and they’d obliged. Nothing for me to remember.

Note to self – book flights during peak season.

#144 KLNR on 10.23.18 at 4:13 pm

@#124 James on 10.23.18 at 12:36 pm
#117 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.23.18 at 10:46 am

@#107 Smokie
“When you mine for truth. It can only be found at the bottom of an empty bottle”
++++
Quoting Hemmingway now Smokie?
Im impressed
_______________________________________
A writer of fiction is really… a congenital liar who invents from his own knowledge or that of other men.

Ernest Hemingway
_____________________

one of my faves

“all thinking men are athiests”

Ernest Hemingway

#145 AGuyInVancouver on 10.23.18 at 4:25 pm

#109 For those about to flop… on 10.23.18 at 9:44 am
I’ve got no money to give away,so I am generous with my time…

M44BC

“Wealthiest People in America & Their Generosity.

Becoming a successful billionaire is the dream of many Americans. But often times people are more impressed by the charitable actions of billionaires, rather than by their success. This may be why Forbes included a new philanthropy score to its latest 400 billionaires list. Take a look at our chart below to see the wealthiest 30 Americans and their philanthropy score.”

https://howmuch.net/articles/top-30-wealthiest-people-in-america
_ _ _
No surprise to see the odious little toad that owns Fox News gets the lowest score.

#146 Vlad on 10.23.18 at 4:34 pm

I heard the prices for lower end rental units will go down as well… I’m renting a 2bdrm for 2k/month in toronto right now and it’s pretty expensive for a single Male, had to settle for an apartment because everyone who was renting a condo thought I was getting it for Airbnb…enjoying my white Male privilage.. cant rent a unit.

Either way the lowering of regular apartment rental prices goes like this: 3 mil houses rent for 4k, people who used to rent 1.5 mil houses rent those cz they can not afford it now… the 1.5 mil houses go down in demand because people can afford more expensive units, this makes the 1.5 mil houses cost less, so people who were renting 800k houses can now rent 1.5 mil houses, that continues all the way down until people who can only afford to rent 250k condos can now rent 500k condos… that’s the road. trickle down housing lol

Can somebody explain to me how this is wrong?

#147 Ace Goodheart on 10.23.18 at 4:41 pm

RE: #121 Gravy Train on 10.23.18 at 11:30 am

#104 Ace Goodheart on 10.23.18 at 9:32 am
“Serious fire sale developing in the equities markets. Not quite time to jump in yet but things are looking very cheap.[…]” Yes, I agree—esp. in emerging markets. Very tempting to ‘buy the dips’, but I’m just waiting on a few financial statements before I do. Are we catching a falling knife? :)

It’s earnings season. We’ll soon know.

Bought Ford today at a P/E ratio of 4.9 with a 7.2% dividend. How anyone can think that is the correct price for that stock is beyond my understanding. $1.68 earnings per share, and I got it for $8.23 per share.

I guess everyone is going to go out and buy a TSLA (EPS -$16.12)?

There’s so much candy out there right now. Just digging around. We’ll know whether all of this is real once the majors start posting their quarterly results, but I am fairly confident there is a lot of miss priced equities out there right now.

#148 Phylis on 10.23.18 at 4:55 pm

Hey, congrats to the mayor of Milton… any words of wisdom for us?

#149 The Real Mark on 10.23.18 at 5:00 pm

“#142 Stan Brooks on 10.23.18 at 4:08 pm
Mark’s deflation in action:”

A US article. I’ve always maintained that there will be a significant divergence between Canada and the USA, to restore long-term trade balances. Deflation in Canada and the other long-term net exporters. Inflation in the USA, the UK, and the other long-term net importers. To rebalance global trade balances.

Due to such, interest rate policy will likely disconnect quite significantly between Canada and the USA going forward.

The Bank of Canada is basically certifiably insane at this point if they proceed with a policy rate increase. Especially in light of the markets undergoing a slow-motion meltdown, back to levels of more than a decade ago. RE prices collapsing. Global tariff wars threatening to flood Canada with a torrent of even cheaper imports from overseas. And the employment market remaining chronically weak aside from relatively low-end, low quality jobs.

#150 Tater on 10.23.18 at 5:02 pm

#147 Ace Goodheart on 10.23.18 at 4:41 pm
RE: #121 Gravy Train on 10.23.18 at 11:30 am

#104 Ace Goodheart on 10.23.18 at 9:32 am
“Serious fire sale developing in the equities markets. Not quite time to jump in yet but things are looking very cheap.[…]” Yes, I agree—esp. in emerging markets. Very tempting to ‘buy the dips’, but I’m just waiting on a few financial statements before I do. Are we catching a falling knife? :)

It’s earnings season. We’ll soon know.

Bought Ford today at a P/E ratio of 4.9 with a 7.2% dividend. How anyone can think that is the correct price for that stock is beyond my understanding. $1.68 earnings per share, and I got it for $8.23 per share.

I guess everyone is going to go out and buy a TSLA (EPS -$16.12)?

There’s so much candy out there right now. Just digging around. We’ll know whether all of this is real once the majors start posting their quarterly results, but I am fairly confident there is a lot of miss priced equities out there right now.
—————————————————————
With an ROIC of 4%, Ford isn’t even earning it’s cost of capital.