The manipulators

On Wednesday the central bank will raise its key rate. The third time in ten months. Three more to come by late Spring or early summer. Tomorrow (Monday) mortgage brokers expect to see one or more major banks jump the gun and add a quarter point or so to their five-year home loan rates.

Mr. Market says a Bank of Canada trigger-pull is 100% certain. So, if is doesn’t happen, the dollar will crush. But, fear not. It’s a done deal, despite soft inflation stats out last week.

Here’s the latest scorecard of Overnight Index Swaps, indicating universal confidence about what happens Wednesday morning at 10 am ET.

An hour later Governor Poloz and his minions will hold a media conference and give a little taste of what lies ahead. According to Scotiabnk’s Derek Holt, it will be hawkish. While The Ploz will not actually tell you the date of the next increase, he will say stuff like, “higher interest rates will be warranted to achieve the inflation target”, and refer to the bullish sentiment CEOs expressed in the bank’s latest Business Outlook Survey. Also expect happy words about the USMCA, the son of NAFTA, since trade worries kept rates lower than in the States.

The quarter point will cause the Big Six to raise prime to 3.95%, instantly increasing the cost of all lines of credit and HELOCs. The B-20 stress test rate, currently at 5.34%, will shortly thereafter jump to about the 6% mark, marking an almost 300% increase in the qualifying rate for a mortgage over just 18 months. Wow.

But it’s working, of course. Transactions in most markets have withered. The autumn selling season turned non-existent. At least eight in ten realtors in major markets have had two, one or zero deals this year. Credit is being restricted and a fifth of buyers can’t act as a result. Meanwhile the stress test is trapping renewers. In order to move to another lender for a lower rate they must pass the stress test. According to veteran broker Rob McLister, about one in ten cannot.

Meanwhile the bond market has hung onto most of that yield gorge. The GoC 5-year debt, which is a benchmark indicator of fixed mortgage rates, still sits near the 2.5% mark, which is 25% more than it was in July. Interest rates – long-term (bonds) and short-term (central bank rate) – are moving up and expected to stay elevated. Like, forever. Or until a recession hits after Trump is defeated in 2020 and The Troubles begin. But we’ll deal with that in a subsequent post…

Now, we have a bigger problem. Politics. Tomorrow the GTA elects a new mayor. This weekend Vancouver did the same. And he’s a doozy.

Kennedy Stewart squeaked in as the boss of YVR, coming up through a crowded field in an election that was all about one thing. You know what it is. He’s a former university prof, Dipper MP, buddies with Comrade Premier Hogan, and continues the serious tilt left in BC politics. The big planks of his housing platform are (a) triple the tax on people with second houses (called Vancouver’s ‘empty home tax’), (b) double the density in all those leafy Van hoods where people paid a premium to have single-family homes, (c) build a whack of ‘affordable’ housing units with financing yet to be determined and (d) establish the office of a rent czar to stand up to the ‘rentier class’ (landlords) that lefty Mills so hate.

So, yes, it’s an anti-wealth agenda. More political intervention into the marketplace. Instead of allowing tighter mortgage regs, buyer fatigue, rising interest rates, unsustainable pricing and fatal levels of family debt to correct the market, this guy will join Horgan in trying to crush it. Combined with the new BC speculation tax, which is another assault on the wealthy using real estate as the weapon, the future seems entrenched. Buy in this market at your peril.

And in Toronto, it’s boring but stable John Tory against another interventionist, Jennifer Keesmaat. She’s a former city planner trying to ride a wave of renter support by promising to build 100,000 affordable units over the next decade – which is 100 times more than Tory has done annually over the last four. Unrealistic does not begin to describe it. Keesmaat would finance all this with a special uber-tax on high-end homeowners, Hoovering $80 million a year from about 3,000 families. Yes, that’s a new $26,000 annual tax, on top of property tax and income tax.

The latest poll has Tory at 62% support and Keesmaat at 27% – but that comes from the Toronto Sun, so be careful.

In any case, the animal spirits have been cut loose. The same people whose speculation and house lust created a debt-fueled gasbag of excess now want socialists to fix it. We’re a strange bunch.

139 comments ↓

#1 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.21.18 at 4:00 pm

Yep,
Halifax born and Oxford Uni educated Kennedy Stewart will ride to Vancouvers’ rescue……on the backs of taxpayers…. when they can least afford it.
The whipsaw backlash against Gregor the Dim’s ignoramus development policies was epic

Between Stewart and Horgan raising taxes to build affordable rental housing.
And rising interest rates

The housing ponzie in BC is done….for a long, long time.

I guess we need a housing reset every generation or so.

A year from now we’ll get a “Pink Mushroom Cloud” post from the Flopster……. just before we go to the polls for Trudeau’s drubbing .

#2 reynolds531 on 10.21.18 at 4:05 pm

The municipal election tomorrow in London likely decides the issue of bus rapid transit. Half a billion dollars to rip up our city, cut arteries down by a bus lane, and disrupt traffic permanently. All in order to save transit users four minutes crossing the city. And make some suspect gains in fighting emissions if people get out of their cars.

I wouldn’t trust the electorate to choose a clown for a kids birthday party.

#3 Ustabe on 10.21.18 at 4:09 pm

Yesterday was Tommy Douglas’s birthday.

The man who many Canadians look to as the founder of our single payer medical system.

While that may be true, I remind you that it was a Progressive Conservative government that enshrined the CCF’s taxpayer funded medical care for ALL Canadians into being.

Meanwhile, the US has, under extreme right political ideology, fallen (risen?) to the worst developed nation for maternal deaths. Mothers dying while in childbirth. By a significant margin.

The US is pulling out of the international postal treaty…ostensibly to punish China and Trump just appointed his new ambassador to South Africa…a Mar A Lago member who previously designed purses for a living.

Anyway, if you have something to mail into or out of the US better do it soon and I’m going out to work on my new gate on the back fence.

While there I’m going to ponder why the CCF and PC’s could come together and create and implement something as monumental as our healthcare system in Canada while today a would be Mayor 5,000 kilometers away is branded a socialist in a pejorative manner.

#4 islander on 10.21.18 at 4:10 pm

‘The same people whose speculation and house lust created a debt-fueled gasbag of excess now want socialists to fix it.”

Uhh, I don’t think these are ‘the same’ people. YVR is a city divided, and I don’t mean by ethnicity.

#5 millmech on 10.21.18 at 4:11 pm

Remember that the banks are also planning four rate hikes next year independent of the BoC rate hikes.This time next year there is a high probability of posted rates being 2-3% higher, plus the 2% stress test on top of that.

#6 The Real Mark on 10.21.18 at 4:20 pm

Surely the BoC is smarter than to raise into what is unfolding into a significant amount of deflation, especially due to last month’s auto sales and retail sales collapsing. Increasing trade storm clouds. A chronically weak labour market. And significant interbank stress.

The hype machine in the “financial” fake news media is in full force, with retail-facing “economists” (banks maintain two sets, you know, their best, albeit perhaps not so photogenic set to advise their proprietary management on strategy, and the other, the prettier ones, to feed propaganda to the public on public TV) feeding horror stories of interest rate hikes to come.

That swap index hasn’t proven historically to be 100% accurate. Much of the concern expressed by Poloz, who apparently was described just a few short years ago as being exporter-friendly, was on account of what was believed to be overheating speculative activity in the housing market. Which as we all know, has collapsed big-time in the past few months. In other words, there is a very high probability that the Bank of Canada was ‘jawboning’ and has no intention of doing rate hikes.

Currency valuations, are not controlled by interest rate differences (higher rates may actually drive even faster depreciation!). There might be something very short-term traders might try to make a temporary trade out of such (and they might be successful in the very short term), but most investors actually achieve a higher after-tax real return in a more stable, even slightly deflating currency, over an inflating currency albeit with a higher interest rate.

To top it all off, there appears to be no emerging demand driver in the Canadian economy. RE is cooked. The O&G industry is cooked until more pipelines are built. The retail/consumer economy is dead. The food industry actually led the deflation, so clearly signs of overcapacity (which is set to worsen if US dairy gets access to the Canadian market). Manufacturing could undergo another round of decimation due to the auto industry globally collapsing. Even most kinds of mining is at serious risk with the global slowdown. Poloz isn’t stupid. The data is staring him in the face and its pretty ugly. The stock market has done nothing in a decade for Canadians, another impediment to growth and reconfiguration of the economy away from housing speculation being a wealth driver.

#7 X on 10.21.18 at 4:24 pm

But Keesmaat said those home owners were rich and could afford anything. Whats a little $26,000 average tax for one of those people.

The irony in her thinking, is that when that homeowner, also cuts his receptionists hours to save the money to put towards the new home tax, then the rent to own, and affordable homes will be even more necessary then before the tax was implemented.

#8 Debtslavecreator on 10.21.18 at 4:46 pm

What’s happening in BC is merely a glimpse into our federal and provincial future in the next 5-10 years as the financially illiterate and brainwashed population vote in radical left/ neo Marxist crook politicians to fix a problem enabled by the state itself as well as the financial stupidity of so many
As the credit based system continues to slowly die , many a great Canadian financial myths will be proven false and for about 30-40% of the population it will be lights out within 5 years
Poloz is stuck – damned if he does and damned if he doesn’t – I happen to think he will but this could be one last time before the “unconventional “ monetary policy “tools” start to be discussed by mid year 19
Much of the imaginary credit driven wealth is going to be wiped out over the next 5-10 years

#9 Rick on 10.21.18 at 4:53 pm

TO has to have Faith.

#10 eightlock90 on 10.21.18 at 4:59 pm

People in these cities have voted in governments that they feel will best represent their interests. Such is the nature of a free liberal democracy. People have had enough of the costs of housing and want something done.

It’s funny how conservatives call liberal housing measures ‘intervening in the market’ but when the cons brought in 0 down 40 year ams and negative interest rates they had nothing to say. Probably because their real estate and stock holding took off. See dictionary: hypocrit.

If all you fake conservatives don’t like free democracy, feel free to sell off all your financial assets, buy bricks of gold and sail off to whatever favourable tax jurisdiction you prefer.

I was the only Conservative MP to oppose 0/40. So stuff it. – Garth

#11 Canada on 10.21.18 at 5:04 pm

Hey Garth , anything good to say about Canada ?

Someone reading over the last, say 3 yrs would think the place is headed to the toilet . It’s no wonder the number of loons that comment regularly here …geez

#12 Penny Henny on 10.21.18 at 5:05 pm

Hey Garth,
why is CPD fairing so badly?

Requisite suck up to follow if I like your answer.

#13 Fish on 10.21.18 at 5:06 pm

B.C. government moves ahead with speculation tax on vacant homes

Tax ranges from 0.5% on secondary homes left vacant by B.C. residents, to 2% on foreign-owned properties
CBC News · Posted: Oct 16, 2018 1:10 PM PT | Last Updated: October 16

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/speculation-tax-tabled-by-bc-government-1.4865185

#14 AK on 10.21.18 at 5:07 pm

“An hour later Governor Poloz and his minions will hold a media conference and give a little taste of what lies ahead.”
=====================================
I am going to have the rubber boots and a shovel ready for the occasion.

#15 TurnerNation on 10.21.18 at 5:08 pm

There was a backward time whereby any dissenters to the Church’s orthodoxy were met with the worst.
Today this is anybody which dare question the Media.
Glad to see no change in human behavior.

Any times a bit of green is involved humans conspire to make more. So yes almost everything is a conspiracy. Many men would sell out at a price. Greatness, fame, threats. Just throw this sports game and you’ll go places. Tell em the UnimaginableThreat from overseas. UnlikeAnyOther. Act now.

#16 Penny Henny on 10.21.18 at 5:08 pm

and don’t say don’t worry about it because it pays a tax favorable dividend (which has been dropping yearly by the way)
2014- .74
2015- .71
2016- .64
2017- .62

#17 Hawk on 10.21.18 at 5:15 pm

A Question For Fellow Canadians (from immigrant Canadian)

============================

Eightlock90’s comment above makes me ask the question, is Canada a “democracy”?

What I mean by this is that our neighbours to the South are often projected by leftists to be democracy, but in fact are a constitutional republic, where there is no intrinsic right for the collective to use voting to “re-distribute” resources from the productive to the “gimme gimme gimme” crowd. In real life of course it has not always worked out and too much of the constitution has been violated by leftist Americans, but at-least technically it is still a constitutional republic, although if the democrats have their way the electoral college will be abolished and its bye bye America.

What is Canada’s history and philosophy on this? Are our rights inalienable…….or are they whatever the collective determines them to be at any given point in time. In asking this I am asking what is technically true, not what the mob can enforce with muscle, as it becomes ver more left leaning.

Thanks.

#18 Uh Huh! on 10.21.18 at 5:17 pm

So why aren’t interest rates open in a free market just like everything else but rather controlled buy the powerful and rich?

They are set by an independent agency to ensure financial stability and economic advance. – Garth

#19 AK on 10.21.18 at 5:19 pm

“The latest poll has Tory at 62% support and Keesmaat at 27% – but that comes from the Toronto Sun, so be careful.”
=====================================
They are more reliable than CNN and MSNBC…

#20 Felix on 10.21.18 at 5:20 pm

Surprisingly, these three mutts actually look somewhat more intelligent than the average canine.

But that’s not saying much.

#21 Charles on 10.21.18 at 5:31 pm

Hate to break it to you, Trump will win in 2020 and no mention of Faith Goldie in the Toronto race… time to stop listening to the CBC( communist broadcasting corporation) and think for your self. I do agreeed that Vancouver and Toronto are screwed for the next 10 to15 years and people who are landlords, in these cities,are going to get bent over as big bad capitalists.. other than that I am agreement with you postings.. have a great day…

Faith Goldie is polling zero. – Garth

#22 Victor V on 10.21.18 at 5:38 pm

“Consider their candidate, Jen Keesmaat. Toronto’s former chief planner jumped into the race way back in July. She was, and is, smart, articulate and telegenic. She attracted a top-notch team of professionals to advise her: former NDP leadership candidate Brian Topp, senior Ontario New Democratic comms guru Chris Ball, former federal Liberal ministerial advisor Beth Clarkson, Jack Layton muse Brad Lavigne, and a former Parliamentary Secretary to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Adam Vaughan. Among others.

Keesmaat gave as good as she got in debates. She knew the issues. The camera loved her, the media gave her plenty of attention, and she could speak in pithy soundbites on command.

But her campaign – despite all of that – never caught on. It stalled, and then it ground to a halt. When the Toronto mayoral campaign concludes on Monday, Jennifer Keesmaat may well end up more than forty percentage points behind her main opponent, Toronto mayor John Tory. As such, she is days away from the most humiliating municipal loss the Left has experienced in Toronto in decades.”

– Political Strategist, Warren Kinsella
https://www.facebook.com/kinsellawarren/posts/10156874106228945

#23 Dolce Vita on 10.21.18 at 5:45 pm

Shelter as property.

More than a basic right in Canada, it’s a get rich quick scheme for some, an ATM for others. Or just a place to call home.

Many are left out and feel ignored.

Economic Stress. Envy. You name it.

They all end in contempt.

Wounded animals lash out. Humans do the same and at the polls they elect steal from the rich give to the poor Gov.

Gov only too happy to pluck wealth especially when asked to do so by the voters.

Basic human nature.

For now, contempt for wealth seems to be the soup du jour. When RE asset values plunge, ALL will be affected by this.

In the meantime, lay low I say. Get out if you can. Come back when the dust settles (by then RE asset wealth will have been plucked by Gov and Market forces).

#24 BS on 10.21.18 at 5:47 pm

(c) build a whack of ‘affordable’ housing units with financing yet to be determined

Apparently Kennedy Stewart said this wouldn’t be a problem. He stated he knows people in Ottawa. Who knew being a former dipper back bencher gave access to such funds just by asking.

Horgan is yet to start on his promised 120,000 affordable housing units nor come up with a way to pay for them.

I think these dipper voters like being lied to.

#25 yvr_lurker on 10.21.18 at 5:50 pm

Delighted about the outcome for mayor for YVR. Would have preferred Sylvester, but did not want to split the vote with the two progressive candidates. This was the shared sentiment with my late boomer 10K running group. Both Kennedy and Sylvestor are no intellectual slouches, they just have a different vision for the city which I generally share.

#26 majik on 10.21.18 at 6:03 pm

NPA hold all the cards in Vancouver council. They are anti-tax and pro-developer. Stewart will get nothing done. Everybody was focused on the mayoral race and completely ignored the big lurch in the other direction on the council.

#27 Linda on 10.21.18 at 6:11 pm

Well, I can see people wanting to sell & get out of town. Problem is, who the heck wants to buy – except, of course, those who couldn’t afford the pricey properties in the first place.

Also, the whole ‘affordable’ homes meme. First, the promise to build does not translate to actual buildings, especially in the quantities promised. Second, the prices I’ve seen for some of these affordable units doesn’t seem that affordable considering the income demographic it is supposed to provide housing for. Add in that any buyers will still have to pass the stress test tells me that there isn’t going to be a happy outcome here.

#28 Dolce Vita on 10.21.18 at 6:11 pm

#11 Canada

Interesting time span choice (subliminal):

3 years.

To answer your question, recall who has been in charge of the nation.

#29 georgist on 10.21.18 at 6:32 pm

Was always going to end like this. The boomers said “yes please” to the question “would you like to be handed hundreds of thousands of dollars in paper value, to be paid by the next generation?”.

They can vote now. In numbers. Chickens home to roost.

#30 Shawn Allen on 10.21.18 at 6:40 pm

The B-20 stress test rate, currently at 5.34%, will shortly thereafter jump to about the 6% mark, marking an almost 300% increase in the qualifying rate for a mortgage over just 18 months. Wow.

*****************************
From just over 1.5% then? Or did it triple (up 200%) from just over 2%? In any case, agreed, that is a huge increase in the qualifying rate.

#31 Barb on 10.21.18 at 6:42 pm

Bet many (older) folks are stunned Stewart won in Vancouver.

The only light (albeit dim) on the horizon is that Krog is no longer an MLA. Nanaimo voters electing a new MLA is a tad shaky, I admit, but ANY hope of weakening the Comrade’s grip on provincial power is encouraging.

Dr. Weaver, slide over a bit on that bench.

#32 Kelly on 10.21.18 at 6:42 pm

Not 100% sure we will get an increase.
Core inflation at 2%, exactly on target.
Perhaps protecting the dollar will trigger the increase.

A central bankers job is not easy.

#33 Leftover on 10.21.18 at 6:42 pm

Real estate has always been tax evasion for the masses (tennants paying cash, unreported capital gains). CRA has twigged on, maybe 5 years late.

In BC the NDP won’t quit until housing drops by 40 to 50%; they’re almost halfway there in some neighborhoods in Vancouver. Some are still clinging to 2017 prices but, as Hemingway said about bankruptcy, it happens slowly at first and then all at once.

#34 Penny Henny on 10.21.18 at 6:49 pm

#22 Victor V on 10.21.18 at 5:38 pm
“Consider their candidate, Jen Keesmaat. Toronto’s former chief planner jumped into the race way back in July. She was, and is, smart, articulate and telegenic. She attracted a top-notch team of professionals to advise her: former NDP leadership candidate Brian Topp, senior Ontario New Democratic comms guru Chris Ball, former federal Liberal ministerial advisor Beth Clarkson, Jack Layton muse Brad Lavigne, and a former Parliamentary Secretary to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Adam Vaughan. Among others.

Keesmaat gave as good as she got in debates. She knew the issues. The camera loved her, the media gave her plenty of attention, and she could speak in pithy soundbites on command.

But her campaign – despite all of that – never caught on. It stalled, and then it ground to a halt. When the Toronto mayoral campaign concludes on Monday, Jennifer Keesmaat may well end up more than forty percentage points behind her main opponent, Toronto mayor John Tory. As such, she is days away from the most humiliating municipal loss the Left has experienced in Toronto in decades.”

– Political Strategist, Warren Kinsella
https://www.facebook.com/kinsellawarren/posts/10156874106228945
//////////////////

she is laying the groundwork for 2022

#35 jojo on 10.21.18 at 6:50 pm

In my opinion we are not watching the rise of socialism, we are watching the final destruction of this evil program that has turned society into a bunch dead head zombies who salivate over their next legal joint instead of driving forward to create wealth for their families. They demand services, they demand programs, they demand supports….

They demand that the state look after their failing parents becuase they have kids to raise….

This is socialism. An addicted society.

The legalization is cannabis will go down in history as the final destruction of society.

Let me tell you a story of what I have experienced with this evil.

It had destroyed 2 friends of ours.

For 20 years we have travelled for a week a year with 5 other couples to teh Caribbean.

3 years ago – one couple went on cannabis for PTSD (retired Military). For 3 years they have been smoking cannabis daily.

We didn’t go South 2 years ago due to other commitmments. But the other couples said this particular couple behaved oddly all week and were shadows of themselves and very angry all week.

Last year everyone connected in Cuba, I was shocked when I saw this couple in person. They had lost incredbile weight. They looked like addicts….

The wife sat in the lobby of the hotel at checkin and called everyone a-holes becuase their room wasn’t ready…. We were shocked.

They stayed in their rooms for 2 days and at mid week the wife emerged to say if she didn’t get pot she was gonna go crazy.

The flight company were called and this couple was put on the next flight home….

They lockked them in their room for the day until they were taken by special taxi to the airport.

What we witnessed was the complete destruction of 2 people…..

Is this the future of Canada????

Blame socialism – it wanted to control you…. It legalized dope to make you stupid and compliant.

After this episode last year, I’d say our future is dim….

#36 The Real Mark on 10.21.18 at 6:59 pm

“#28 Kelly on 10.21.18 at 6:42 pm
Not 100% sure we will get an increase.
Core inflation at 2%, exactly on target.”

Inflation for the past decade has been 1.46% annualized (source: BoC CPI calculator). Essentially a giant windfall has been handed to the fixed income market through BoC policy that has been overly restrictive insofar as interest rate policies go.

The September CPI number was actually deflationary, at -0.4% month over month.

If we ignore the narrative in the media, and the “jawboning” from the BoC, there is absolutely no evidence out there in support of a rate hike. If anything, the BoC has ample leeway to cut rates. The mandate of the BoC, the 2% inflation target, is not a mandate to run inflation chronically below the target, and allowing inflation to run chronically below the target is just as much of a neglect of the mandate as allowing inflation to run chronically above the target. The BoC policy decision to raise rates as high as they have is already largely being proven a mistake.

For those who say, “low rates hurt the savers”, it should be noted that ‘savers’ have a wide variety of things they can do with their ‘savings’. Short-term fixed income is one but of a plethora of options available. If anything, as Garth tells us constantly, supported by data, Canadians are way too risk averse with the majority of self-directed TFSAs, RRSPs, etc., finding their way into GICs and other short-term fixed income, rather than being properly invested in diversified portfolios. BoC and GoC policy should be actively addressing such to get the Canadian economy back on its feet and to unlock Canada’s potential. BoC abuse of its monetary policy mandate is not helping matters.

#37 Chelsea on 10.21.18 at 7:01 pm

When Vancouver, B.C. prices fall, then the rest of B.C. will follow …. it is a domino effect. So, for now Vancouver is in a flat, go no-where mode… it won’t be long. RE will be in reload status, affordable prices, greed will dissolve into lets make a reasonable deal!

So glad to hear at last some action on these idiot asking prices…..

#38 Long Branch Apprentice on 10.21.18 at 7:02 pm

#9 Rick

Exactly.

#39 Nonplused on 10.21.18 at 7:06 pm

Wait, don’t people who have expensive houses already pay more in tax? I thought it was based on “appraised value”? So if the mill rate is 1%, doesn’t a guy with a $3 million dollar home already pay $30,000 a year, whereas someone with a $500,000 condo only pays $5,000 per year? I thought that was how it worked anyway.

In the same manner, doesn’t someone who owns 2 houses already pay twice as much property tax as someone who owns one?

There must be some sort of limit on the amount of new discriminatory taxes municipalities can levy. I thought they were limited to property taxes. I suppose they can go and say the “empty house tax” is a property tax but it is very much against the nature of “fairness” that supposedly the tax code is suppose to generate. Why should I have to pay more in tax just because I have a condo in Kelowna?

However they have been doing this sort of thing for years in the interior of BC. Residents get a substantial discount on their tax rate if they are full time residents. Supposedly it is justified two ways: The fist being that the cabins and condos create a need for more roads and plumbing than was necessary before, and secondly because the locals deserve compensation for hosting all these cowboys from Alberta every weekend.

Anyway, there are really only 3 ways to affect housing prices, same as any other commodity. Supply, demand, and interest rates. To affect supply the city needs to permit more development. The builders will come along and tear down those shanty 100 year old rotted out houses and throw up some newly built condos. To affect demand it has to be done at the federal level with reduced immigration until the builders catch up. And of course the central bank is already inching its way towards what needs to be done with interest rates.

Anyway, if they keep up with this nonsense in BC they are going to get exactly what’s coming to them: Drastically reduced housing prices and still nobody in a position to buy anything.

#40 Keith on 10.21.18 at 7:09 pm

The mayor in Vancouver gets one vote. The council of ten has five pro developer bought and paid for NPA councillors, who ran with a war chest of $800,000 far more than anyone else. Affordable housing came within a few hundred votes of dying for another four years.

The NPA five won’t be held back too often, they can turn one Green councillor and get most of what they want. Kennedy Stewart could well be a four year lame duck mayor. Adding density to single family home zoning in Vancouver increases property values, so old neighborhoods will change but the wealthy house owners will be able to cash out and move to the island. The huge affordability crisis is just as likely to continue, for the same reasons. In one year there could be a change in provincial government and federal. Stay tuned.

#41 Steven Rowlandson on 10.21.18 at 7:11 pm

“We’re a strange bunch.”

Yes indeed! Very strange indeed.
When you have a problem that was caused by the excesses of capitalism, communism and democracy you don’t count on people possessed by such ideologies to fix the problem. They won’t admit to it being a problem, they don’t know how to fix the problem and they don’t want to try…. They absolutely love things the way they are.

You need people who are adept at thinking and planning and like solving problems and have all the authority they want and need to straighten things out. Rest assured the the chances of allowing such avatars to work their magic are almost zippo. The Donald knows.

#42 young & foolish on 10.21.18 at 7:12 pm

Coming higher rates, tapped out families, stock buybacks fuelling pumped equity valuations, years of cheap money now coming to an end …. yet we are to believe we have solid growth with wage gains just around the corner?

Not sure about all of you blog dogs, but my balanced & diversified is stretching to hit 4% this year.

#43 renter in Surrey on 10.21.18 at 7:15 pm

0.5%tax , 2% tax… nobody will even notice.

That’s what we need in BC – Paris Targets Vacant Second Homes With 60% Tax.

https://www.planetizen.com/node/92029/paris-targets-vacant-second-homes-60-tax

It was not the free market that propelled priced to the moon.
There is no free market to bring prices back to fundamentals.

#44 Autotown South on 10.21.18 at 7:19 pm

Mr. Turner,
Have followed you and your attempt to educate the masses for over two decades including attendance at many of your public appearances. Love the dog photos and share them with fellow under paid/ under appreciated public service coworkers several times per week. Anyway, there seems to be a lot of discussion about what we have little control over. From a purely defensive and investment perspective we, individually and collectively, need more insight into what we can do at every level of society to survive. No big picture, no them versus us, just Canadians looking out for the best of all. Please continue to focus on this instead of party politics. To quote, “united we stand, divided we fall”

Thank you. Economies and markets are heavily influenced by political leaders and ideologies. We should pay close attention to them. – Garth

#45 renter in Surrey on 10.21.18 at 7:23 pm

RE: #39 Nonplused

Wait, don’t people who have expensive houses already pay more in tax? I thought it was based on “appraised value”? So if the mill rate is 1%, doesn’t a guy with a $3 million dollar home already pay $30,000 a year, whereas someone with a $500,000 condo only pays $5,000 per year? I thought that was how it worked anyway.

————————————————————————————-

If we have progressive income tax rates why we can’t have progressive property tax rates? What’s the difference?

I could argue that a person making 100K already pays twice more income tax than a person making 50K a year. Why should there be progressive rates for income tax?

Taxing income and consumption makes some sense. Taxing possessions purchased with after-tax dollars makes none. – Garth

#46 paul on 10.21.18 at 7:28 pm

Just remember when you think things in life are going great. There will always be something trying to pull you down.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QAO_vn_oPeU

#47 Gulf Breeze on 10.21.18 at 7:31 pm

Jojo,

Sounds like your friends are meth heads. Nobody, repeat nobody becomes addicted to pot, much less in the way you describe. There’s something missing from your story.

To equate your anecdote, further, with the end results of ‘socialism’ is a head scratcher.

#48 Roial1 on 10.21.18 at 7:32 pm

I was the only Conservative MP to oppose 0/40. So stuff it. – Garth

And did that not get you the “Fickle Finger of Fate” Award
from your “Right wing leader”?????

Just asking.

So what? I went on to be a billionaire blogger. – Garth

#49 Dan on 10.21.18 at 7:36 pm

Christ when will these rate hikes stop? I’m just trying to pay off student loans and the incessant rate hikes are really cramping my style.

You’re thinking this next one and 3 more, so I can count on another 1% by the end of 2019? Christ I gotta get these damned things paid off.

#50 TurnerNation on 10.21.18 at 7:49 pm

Hey climate change do gooders. All you stoners are wreaking the environ, your legal MJ deliveries tip the scales with waste. Not gonna stop your habit is it?
Signal that virtue again to me?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/plastic-cannabis-packaing-1.4871558

“Greg MacLean says he was in disbelief when he bought a small portion of marijuana on the first day of legalization at a Nova Scotia Liquor Corporation store in Antigonish, N.S.
“I took it home, and opened it all out and laid out all the packaging,” he said. “That’s when I realized how excessive it really was for just four grams of weed. It’s too much.””

#51 cd on 10.21.18 at 7:55 pm

I have a few RE questions…

1. With increasing rates, what is going to happen with these condo presale places? Should they close up shop? (I’m asking because I illegally park my car behind one).

2. Are we expecting to see a wave of power of sales next year? How crazy will prices get?

#52 Are we all missing ... on 10.21.18 at 8:04 pm

The big news in 604 …

https://www.vancouverisawesome.com/2018/10/20/joey-shithead-elected-burnaby/

#53 SoggyShorts on 10.21.18 at 8:06 pm

#109 Stan Brooks on 10.21.18 at 2:22 pm
#98 Doug Rowat on 10.21.18 at 12:01 pm,
#103 SoggyShorts on 10.21.18 at 1:08 pm

I also /for the record/ call for 70 /% + decline of house prices in GTA in nominal prices.

************************
Hang on there… When you say 70% decline in nominal prices are we talking based on your 10% inflation number?
So if house prices stay exactly the same for 11 years, that counts as a 70% drop?

#54 Jimbo on 10.21.18 at 8:11 pm

What is the size of the average mortgage and how much does it change when you take people who are mortgage free out of the equation? Online sources say the average mortgage in Canada is $200,000. That is a lot lower than I thought it would be.

#55 MF on 10.21.18 at 8:12 pm

Gulf Breeze on 10.21

https://www.drugabuse.gov/publications/research-reports/marijuana/marijuana-addictive

-Biggest myth in the world. Repeat after me. Biggest myth that MJ is not addictive.

Just because of the to be failed social experiment of legalization doesn’t mean we should neglect science.

MF

#56 the Jaguar on 10.21.18 at 8:16 pm

“In order to move to another lender for a lower rate they must pass the stress test. According to veteran broker Rob McLister, about one in ten cannot.”

Well. Enough said. If money is this tight in households it is hard to argue with the restraints introduced by OSFI.
While we might stand back and hope that common sense might have prevailed,….apparently not. Self restraint is a trait from another age. A ‘throw back’quality.. And in the absence of that and other virtues, the nanny state steps forth to round up the usual suspects. There has never been a greater opportunity to be informed about such matters.
For those who could not resist the temptation of bigger square footage and more granite and looked away from the reality of their wages, common sense, and whatever other practicalities fit their own situation I say ‘You had it coming’. And whoever else might be caught in this reality, yes……….you also had it coming.

#57 MF on 10.21.18 at 8:16 pm

Meh rates should have risen 5 years ago. For years we had these governors at the BoC telling us about “debt levels” while they did nothing.

Too little too late but better than nothing I guess.

MF

#58 down and out on 10.21.18 at 8:17 pm

BC the only province with a property tax deferment program.I just see more home owners during this causing bigger problems .

#59 Tim on 10.21.18 at 8:20 pm

Crooked Christy and her sleazy inept Liberals have ruined the housing market in Vancouver, encouraging money laundering and foreign speculation. Young people are screwed and they are leaving in droves. How dare you criticize the NDP after years of having the incompetent Liberals in power.

#60 Chaddywack on 10.21.18 at 8:24 pm

Hearing about the possible densification of the entire city definitely is causing me pause about buying in Vancouver….even on the west side.

I wonder if any other relatively close municipalities have stricter SFH zoning where these additional units are not allowed.

What’s the point of dropping 2-3 mil when a group of potheads moves into the duplex/carriage house/basement suite next door.

#61 NFN_NLN on 10.21.18 at 8:24 pm

#16 Penny Henny

I’ve also been burned by CPD. Not sure what to do. Luckily my Pot stocks have been carrying the weight.

CPD is up 1.2% YTD with a total return of 4.54%. – Garth

#62 Smelly on 10.21.18 at 8:29 pm

Prices are dropping, new construction is still going strong! All our builders are full steam ahead on everything they sold two years ago. Not sure how many people will default come closing time next year, we’ll see!

#63 SoggyShorts on 10.21.18 at 8:29 pm

Edit for
#53 SoggyShorts on 10.21.18 at 8:06 pm
#109 Stan Brooks on 10.21.18 at 2:22 pm
#98 Doug Rowat on 10.21.18 at 12:01 pm,
#103 SoggyShorts on 10.21.18 at 1:08 pm

Actually I can’t figure out how 10% inflation and 70% drop in housing fit together in your mind.
If the major cause of increased living costs drops by 70%, how is your 10% inflation maintained?

#64 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.21.18 at 8:57 pm

@#26 majik
“NPA hold all the cards in Vancouver council. They are anti-tax and pro-developer. Stewart will get nothing done.”
+++++
Yes and no.
While the voters rejected the Bike Path agenda of the previous Gregor the Dim govt…they were obviously not ready to jump in with both feet with the Pro developer NPA .
( VERY close electoral numbers and Ken Sim’s telemarketing “vote in the first asian Mayor of Van” was a pathetic last minute non starter with the electorate )

Mayor Stewrat ….errr ….sorry Stewart ….is the “tiebreaker” vote.
10 clowncillors and 1 Mayor.
So…..Lets see how long the 3 Greens, 1 independant and 1 social anarchist “co-operate” against 5 NPA…..

The next 4 years will be interesting….and …if nothing else…..Pot Shops are legal so you can legally suck on a carcinogenic “pacifier” and then watch the show on the internet…..

#65 palebird on 10.21.18 at 9:41 pm

#52 Joey Shithead got elected to Burnaby council.. he is a great guy, been going to his shows for years. We will see how he does in real politics.

#66 Marcus on 10.21.18 at 9:45 pm

I think the intelligensi in Toronto and in this blog are about to be surprised by the winner in Toronto. Global just asked for access to the Goldy Campaign’s Victory party. She is way ahead in Twitter polling and in official polling has been a steady third. She beats out 30 other contenders combined. She has been blocked from debating and has had her legal and required access to advertising in the media illegally blocked. This may well be another Trump Thump coming to Toronto. Time will tell. Gotta have Faith! LOL!

#67 Leo on 10.21.18 at 9:50 pm

Yes how dare politicians actually try to solve housing affordability by increasing supply rather than hoping for a crash to somehow magically come on its own.

#68 Marcus on 10.21.18 at 9:53 pm

Faith Goldie is polling zero. – Garth

Bwahahahahahahahahaha! I cannot believe you actually put that down on your blog for all eternity. She may well not win but she has really shook up the political scene in Toronto. So much so that they denied her the debates, advertising/media access. Your arrogance is showing Garth and it does not look good at all. She has a ton of support in Toronto and tomorrow may well shock you. If it does not shock you then you are just playing games.

#69 Blackdog on 10.21.18 at 9:55 pm

@#50TurnerNation re: “Hey climate change do gooders. All you stoners are wreaking the environ, your legal MJ deliveries tip the scales with waste. Not gonna stop your habit is it?
Signal that virtue again to me?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/plastic-cannabis-packaing-1.4871558

Did “stoners” design and enforce the excessive government regulated packaging that they don’t get from their illegal sources? If you are going to be upset over the potential environmental impact of all that unnecessary paper and plastic, at least blame the right guys.

#70 BS on 10.21.18 at 10:06 pm

Taxing income and consumption makes some sense. Taxing possessions purchased with after-tax dollars makes none. – Garth

30 years ago that made sense. People paid the taxes already when they earned the money. Anyone who owned expensive assets already paid the taxes.

Today with globalism here in Canada we have many wealthy people here who have paid little or no income taxes, investment taxes or business taxes. The tax system needs to be revised with lower income taxes, lower corporate taxes offset by higher consumption and property taxes.

#71 dakkie on 10.21.18 at 10:07 pm

Backlash Against War on Cash Reaches the Bank of Canada

http://www.investmentwatchblog.com/backlash-against-war-on-cash-reaches-the-bank-of-canada/

#72 Blackdog on 10.21.18 at 10:11 pm

@MF #57 re:”Biggest myth in the world. Repeat after me. Biggest myth that MJ is not addictive.”

Cannabis is not generally physically addictive as opposed to much more harmful drugs, for example alcohol. Cannabis can induce psychological dependence in people with a tendency towards addiction and pre-existing mental health issues, but so can many substances (food, sex, power). Generally, the mental health issues exists first, which is the basis for the psychological dependence on cannabis, or other subtances or activities. Given cannabis’s drastically lower risk profile as compared to other drugs, research shows it has great potential in a harm reduction approach to be used as a substitute for drugs which really ARE physically addictive (alcohol, opioids, etc).

#73 reynolds531 on 10.21.18 at 10:19 pm

#70 BS

How about these wealthy people pay on foreign income? The USA has FATCA. How about if you want to live here, hold a passport here, you file taxes here?

Higher consumption and property taxes would hit the poor AND as pointed out above it would retax assets bought with after tax dollars.

#74 georgist on 10.21.18 at 10:23 pm

> She is way ahead in Twitter polling and in official polling has been a steady third.

you have to take this with a pinch of salt, it’s demographic based plus people share social media with like-minded people.

What I’m not surprised at is that outsiders become popular at the same time as rocketing land costs.

We have the bankers to thank for this. Nobody else is creating money and laundering foreign money to facilitate these prices, which are detached from wages.

#75 Hamsterwheelie on 10.21.18 at 10:28 pm

If renters think it sucks now…keep voting against landlords (trust me when I say renters hold all the rights at the Landlord Tenant Board, tenants get free lawyers and can destroy a home or condo with zero repercussions)
My predictions on the tightening screws of ‘rentiers’
1) More small holdings (1-6 houses or rentals) landlords will sell = more single family homes (vs duplexes or triplexes etc) until you can only rent in apartment blocks because thats all that’s left.
2) More basement apartments at very high rents as rental spaces dry up due to homes being sold to owners w zero interest in renting out (roi doesn’t make sense)
3) More short term rentals because the rules protecting renters over landlords are unblanced = no one wants a tenant who you can’t raise the rent on or even evict without months of paperwork
4) Rentals will be even tougher for families to find esp as existing, older apartment blocks renovate to make more, but smaller units.
Everyone hates landlords but if your gov’t hates em too then they will disappear. So good luck in that rental market ;landlords will sell & no one is building more rentals = even crazier rent prices.
Ya, I know, just full of good news today! -but unlike some, I speak from direct experience.

#76 Chaddywack on 10.21.18 at 10:40 pm

@#64

The 1 “independent” councillor is Christine Boyle who ran with “One City.” She is ultra-left wing probably to the same degree as Swanson on the spectrum. The way I understood her platform was that all parts of the city should be zoned for housing for lower income people. That includes the wealthy neighbourhoods too. Essentially a Marxist ideology about taking from those who have and giving to those who have not.

The Greens seem moderate compared to Swanson and Boyle and will probably side with the NPA on some more moderate issues. In any event, these two ladies will certainly shake up the dynamic……we’ll see if the “progressive” majority actually carries the day or not…..

#77 kbean on 10.21.18 at 10:46 pm

CPD is up 1.2% YTD with a total return of 4.54%. – Garth

Not sure how you are calculating this by I am getting 0.82% YTD total return with dividends reinvested.

Growth of $10,000.00
Start date: 01/02/2018
End date: 10/19/2018
Start price/share: $14.35
End price/share: $14.02
Starting shares: 696.86
Ending shares: 719.13
Dividends reinvested/share: $0.45
Total return: 0.82%
Annualized Gain: 1.04%
Starting investment: $10,000.00
Ending investment: $10,082.00
Years: 0.79

Can you please tell where I am getting it wrong?

#78 Dan on 10.21.18 at 11:31 pm

In the last 15 years, the western world as we once knew it, is becoming insane, I think we are slowly experiencing what will be known as the end of Western civilization through social erosion. I need to get my shack in Northern QC or BC and stock up on ammo, seeds and bear traps….

#79 Nobel Laureate on 10.21.18 at 11:37 pm

Speaking of manipulators…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fA5sGtj7QKQ

#80 Vision on 10.22.18 at 12:11 am

Keesmaat would finance all this with a special uber-tax on high-end homeowners
————-
There are a lot of wealthy homeowners in Toronto that are not paying the equivalent of what their homes are worth, because they are in older neighbourhoods .
Their taxes do not reflect the value of their homes.
So, tax them away!
Why should someone who has a new townhouse be paying more tax than someone who has an older house in Rosedale?

#81 k on 10.22.18 at 12:20 am

Our wonderful part time drama teacher Prime Minister and full time trust fund baby is planning a state visit to Uruguay (the only other country on the planet to legalize pot ) to sample South American legal dope . He plans to dress up as a Mayan God and dance around the Uruguayan Capital smoking bud . His State visit will last 3 weeks and only cost 16 million dollars ! Hey it’s FUN being a rich socialist !

#82 Vampire studies on 10.22.18 at 12:25 am

Surrey renter 43 – you could have just scrolled down the article and found this comment for clarity:

“This is a rather deceptive headline and article as nowhere does it state 60% of what. If were 60% of the property value that would make a second home completely prohibitive. But buried in the linked article is the fact that it is 60% of a fair market value rent for the property. How about a little real content and context Planitzen?

The reason this annoyed me is that other cities in the world, Vancouver included where I live, have implemented an empty home tax but are not basing it on rental value but on property value. So the figure of 60% just is inflammatory. For example in Vancouver the tax is 1%. However it is 1% of the value of the home. Which is apples and oranges to Paris’ 60%, hard to say which is higher. The Planitzen summary and the original article could have supplied some context and comparison to other taxes”

#83 Investx on 10.22.18 at 12:51 am

Faith Goldy for mayor of Toronto!

#84 AB Boxster on 10.22.18 at 1:09 am

The us stock market is one of the only investment classes making any money today other than Canadian REITs.
Morningstar show cpd down 2.5% YTD and with interest so far total yield is about 1%.
All other fixed asset classes are down around 2%.

CDN index ETFs down about 2% YTD.
Europe down about 3%
Emerging markets down 10%.

With continued rate increases by the fed to cool inflation and the economy the US markets are in for a correction.

Canada.? Who knows? No one wants to invest here anymore and the real estate industry is about to get kicked just as the energy industry has been.
And as the housing market cools so does demand for lumber, construction workers etc.

Does not bode well for balanced portfolios this year.

And if rates continue to rise it will soon make more sense just to buy quality bonds that will yield 4.5 – 5%.

Not sure why it will make sense to invest in more risky investments that are impacting even balanced portfolios when one will be able to receive 5% return without the hassle of trying to predict how asset classes in a portfolio are going to react to higher rates, slower growth, trade wars, China’s economy, Russia’s policies, etc, etc etc.

The model is for the fed to keep raising rates until it is obvious that they have raised them too much, and by that time we are in another recession and rates are backed of.

I’m thinking the US markets will begin to react negatively to further rate increases, but the fed does not really care about stock market growth, as inflation and GDP growth are it primary concerns.

#85 shaelynn wheeler on 10.22.18 at 3:09 am

https://www.timescolonist.com/real-estate/metro-vancouver-s-high-end-house-rents-plunge-as-inventory-spikes-experts-1.23470360

#86 NoName on 10.22.18 at 3:52 am

Interesting read

#87 TurnerNation on 10.22.18 at 6:21 am

#34 Penny Henny great point. 2022 could be pivotal year. Trump will be replaced in 2022 too.
A full slate of What’s-yours-is-mine Communist leaders will be introduced in 2022 imo.

Google: UN Agenda 3030. There is a long term plan for us tax farm slaves and it’s being rolled out.

I bet with rate hikes Toronto prices will slump. Then corps like Blackstone LP Will swoop in buying up swaths of houses, condos, for pennies on the dollar as they do after every ‘natural’ or financial crisis in the USA . That plan again…densifiction.
Keesmat could then expropriate parts of city for more planned kandos like this one. Land ownership is forbidden under the comms.
How nice 10,000 people an a bleak cement park:

https://www.blogto.com/city/2018/10/woodsy-park-bessarion-community-centre-toronto/

** And Google- the techno control state – is being given control over a part of Toronto to build their ‘smart’ city tracking and controlling behavior over all its inhabitants. Computer says no? City council is but a facade, enablers.

#88 TurnerNation on 10.22.18 at 6:28 am

I’m not getting a good feeling for rural areas under Agenda 2030. With driving people off their land and self suffiency, they could be wiped out with the stroke of a pen, overnight. Et tu, Fort Mac?

If the banks or insurance companies or CMHC says that they will stop insuring or lending in rural areas due to some high risk…then it’s over. And we are to fear some overseas bogeyman?
The pen is mightier.

#89 akashic record on 10.22.18 at 6:51 am

#77 kbean on 10.21.18 at 10:46 pm

CPD is up 1.2% YTD with a total return of 4.54%. – Garth

Not sure how you are calculating this by I am getting 0.82% YTD total return with dividends reinvested.

Growth of $10,000.00
Start date: 01/02/2018
End date: 10/19/2018
Start price/share: $14.35
End price/share: $14.02
Starting shares: 696.86
Ending shares: 719.13
Dividends reinvested/share: $0.45
Total return: 0.82%
Annualized Gain: 1.04%
Starting investment: $10,000.00
Ending investment: $10,082.00
Years: 0.79

Can you please tell where I am getting it wrong?

#84 AB Boxster on 10.22.18 at 1:09 am

Morningstar show cpd down 2.5% YTD and with interest so far total yield is about 1%.

Indeed, how is the performance of CPD evaluated so differently?

This is not secret TREB data, it is supposedly fully transparent, all calculations should arrive to the exactly same result.

The deviance for total yield between 1% or 4.54% is worst than RE phantom numbers.

Just Google the fund stats. – Garth

#90 Ace Goodheart on 10.22.18 at 7:03 am

Tory in by a landslide tonight. But his counsel (down to 25 from a previous 43) will be a weird and perhaps not quite so wonderful mix of old and new. Watch for long term counsellors splitting their own votes as they go head to head with each other, with the result being unknowns getting in for the first time in their lives.

Van: becoming a very socialist place. What is going on over in BC?

Everyone in Toronto: get out and vote! This is NOT your usual run of the mill ordinary election. Real changes are going to happen tonight, and you can be part of them.

#91 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.22.18 at 8:24 am

@#76 Caddywack
“we’ll see if the “progressive” majority actually carries the day or not…..”
++++
Exactly my point.
It will be amusing watching the dysfunction of what boils down to 5 capitalists bickering with 5 socialists and an NDP “mayor” as umpire .
All while the voters watch their property, water, garbage taxes go up up up as their property values go down down down.
Gregor the Dim social experiment part deux.
Stewart will be a one term wonder. The electorate’s hair will be on fire.
Its unfortunate that it takes 4 loooong years to rid ourselves of that voting mistake.
NDP Mayor of Vancouver, NDP Premier of BC and Trudeau as PM.
We’re doomed for at least a year

P.S. You can call me fartz, everyone else does.

#92 jp on 10.22.18 at 8:41 am

Will be very interesting to see how this all plays out in Vancouver. Any chance anything this new mayor does will work? If no, how can lower home prices be attained in metro Van?

#93 dharma bum on 10.22.18 at 8:47 am

Postal Strike Starts Today

https://globalnews.ca/news/4579283/canada-post-announces-strike-nationwide/

Canadian postal workers still think it’s the ’70s.

Newsflash: Nobody cares.

Less junk mail for a while.

#94 Gravy Train on 10.22.18 at 8:53 am

#84 AB Boxster on 10.22.18 at 1:09 am
“[…] Morningstar show [CPD] down 2.5% YTD and with interest so far total yield is about 1%.[…]”

CPD is up 1.2% YTD with a total return of 4.54%. – Garth
https://www.blackrock.com/ca/individual/en/literature/fact-sheet/cpd-ishares-s-p-tsx-canadian-preferred-share-index-etf-fund-fact-sheet-en-ca.pdf

“CDN index ETFs down about 2% YTD. Europe down about 3%. Emerging markets down 10%.” Have you even looked at earnings? In the near term you should be focused on ROI, not share price! Finance 101. :)

“With continued rate increases by the [F]ed to cool inflation and the economy the US markets are in for a correction.[…]” Anyone can predict a correction! You’re worth your salt if you can tell us when! :)

“And if rates continue to rise it will soon make more sense just to buy quality bonds that will yield 4.5 – 5%.” Don’t get me started! :)

“Not sure why it will make sense to invest in more risky investments that are impacting even balanced portfolios when one will be able to receive 5% return without the hassle of trying to predict how asset classes in a portfolio are going to react to higher rates, slower growth, trade wars, China’s economy, Russia’s policies, etc.[…]” Have you not been reading Garth’s blog? Trump is the inflation president—what with his jingoism, nativism, protectionism, isolationism, and fiscal policies. You’ll just have to grin and bear it now—like the rest of us. Oh—and, as the market interest rate rises, bond prices will continue to fall.

“The model is for the [F]ed to keep raising rates until it is obvious that they have raised them too much, and by that time we are in another recession and rates are backed of[f].” Sources? Evidence? Or is this pablum just conjecture?

“I’m thinking […]” I see no evidence! :)

#95 Remembrancer on 10.22.18 at 9:07 am

#35 jojo on 10.21.18 at 6:50 pm

Reefer madness then?

#96 Remembrancer on 10.22.18 at 9:32 am

#39 Nonplused on 10.21.18 at 7:06 pm
> I thought that was how it worked anyway.

Yep

>In the same manner, doesn’t someone who owns 2 >houses already pay twice as much property tax as >someone who owns one?

Yep, dependent on the assessed value of each, maybe more, maybe less…

>There must be some sort of limit on the amount of >new discriminatory taxes municipalities can levy.

Discriminatory is a loaded term in this context, provincial legislation will control municipal taxation powers over coverage but likely not amount. There are natural limits ie tax @ 100% and likely no land owners within your boarders and tax at 0% and the dirt roads, tar paper shacks and dysentery will likely achieve similar results…

>…immigration…

Nope – nice assumptive close attempt but anyone using builder backlogs as a shield for an anti-immigration agenda is really stretching it, why not just come out and say it in the light of day? The reality of commercial financing is builds largely happen when occupancy is contracted – ie majority buyers have to buy before the build happens for new construction…

#97 Danforth on 10.22.18 at 9:42 am

Tory takes positions on city building which are not evidence based, nor good urban design practises. For this reason he needs to go.

Tory wants to rebuild the Gardiner East a little bit to the north, at tremendous cost to the city… forget how much but its like a billion dollar plan or something. The Gardiner East has very low volume, and is much better served by a Boulevard like University Avenue, at a 500M savings This is Keesmaat’s position.

Tory has forever said “Lets just get on with building a subway into scarborough” at massive expense, when the region doesn’t have the density to warrant a subway. Scarborough needs transit badly, but the right order of transit for its density. The subway isn’t it.
Keesmaat’s ideas on this are better.

Tory supports the racist tactic of ‘carding’, which disproportionately targets black and brown people.

I read an article recently which described Tory as the perfect candidate for a job such as “Governor General of Toronto”, a job which alas does not exist. To be agreeable and ruffle no feathers….this is Tory defined.

This City – as in the municipality – is stuck in old ideas. The city – the people and industry – are far ahead of the City.

#98 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.22.18 at 10:07 am

@#94 D- Bum
“Canadian postal workers still think it’s the ’70s.
Newsflash: Nobody cares.
Less junk mail for a while.”
++++

Total agreement.
Postal Strike = Paper recycling box empty
Will anyone notice?

Canada Post should lock them out for 6 weeks and let the Mortgage/Visa/LoC Payment missed banksters do the rest……..
Let them come crawling back Dec 1st and hire part timers to eat up all the overtime……

#99 Fish on 10.22.18 at 10:10 am

news
Homeowners worried about paying down debt as interest rates go up

Homeowners worried about paying down debt as interest rates go up

Younger homeowners have never experienced a significant rise in interest rates

Sophia Harris · CBC News · Posted: Oct 22, 2018 4:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/cbc-survey-rising-interest-rates-household-debt-mortgage-1.4864965

#100 Eks dee Siple on 10.22.18 at 10:21 am

They are set by an independent agency to ensure financial stability and economic advance. – Garth

Thanks for the laugh this morning! Faith Goldy is played by the same actor that plays Abby Martin, voters beware.

#101 AB Boxster on 10.22.18 at 10:22 am

#94 Gravy Train on 10.22.18 at 8:53 am

Your an idiot.
But feel free to keep posting.
Wouldn’t want to deprive this blog of your valuable insight.

#102 yorkville renter on 10.22.18 at 10:44 am

35 candidates for mayor of Toronto… ridiculous

even more ridiculous are Faith supporters who think a white power candidate had a snowball chance in hell of winning… sometimes someone isn’t covered because they aren’t worth covering

#103 PastThePeak on 10.22.18 at 11:01 am

#78 Dan on 10.21.18 at 11:31 pm
In the last 15 years, the western world as we once knew it, is becoming insane, I think we are slowly experiencing what will be known as the end of Western civilization through social erosion. I need to get my shack in Northern QC or BC and stock up on ammo, seeds and bear traps….
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Hence my screen name (no, it doesn’t refer to real estate…:).

I firmly believe that “western society” is in a long term decline, due to a number of factors (social / cultural, economic, demographic). The start of the millennia is likely to be seen as the peak.

That being said, I don’t see any dramatic decline – just a slow erosion for decades. No hurry for your “guns ‘n ammo plan – though if you like the rural areas, it can be a much lower cost of living.

#104 Ubul on 10.22.18 at 11:04 am

#90 Ace Goodheart on 10.22.18 at 7:03 am

Everyone in Toronto: get out and vote! This is NOT your usual run of the mill ordinary election. Real changes are going to happen tonight, and you can be part of them.

#97 Danforth

This City – as in the municipality – is stuck in old ideas. The city – the people and industry – are far ahead of the City.

—-

Watch out for 30 km/h uniform speed limit, making Toronto/GTA traffic great again.

#105 AB Boxster on 10.22.18 at 11:05 am

#94 Gravy Train on 10.22.18 at 8:53 am

CPD is up 1.2% YTD with a total return of 4.54%. – Garth
https://www.blackrock.com/ca/individual/en/literature/fact-sheet/cpd-ishares-s-p-tsx-canadian-preferred-share-index-etf-fund-fact-sheet-en-ca.pdf

—————————————

CPD pays a monthly distribution that over that past 12 months worked out to about 4.15%.

Over the past 9 months in 2018 distribution has been a total of .447.
If the same dividend of .049 per month occurs for the next 3 months, then the total dividend for 2018 will be .594 cents.

On the current price of about $14, this equates to 4.24% on the year.

But , ytd (which means year to date – Finance 101) for CPD has a current distribution of .447 which is a dividend YTD of 3.1%.

And, the value of the fund has fallen YTD from 14.35 to current value of 14.

That is a ‘decline of 2.44%
Here, let me do the math for you:

14.35-14.0 = .35
.35/14.35 = .0244

So as a percentage, the fund has fallen 2.44%
Cool how that works. Math 101

Now, on a YTD basis, the dividends on the fund have paid 3.1% but the value of the fund has fallen 2.44%

So given these actual numbers feel free to explain how the actual value of the fund YTD has increased by 4.15%.

In fact if you go to the following link:
http://quote.morningstar.ca/quicktakes/etf/etf_ca.aspx?t=CPD&region=CAN&culture=en-CA

You can easily see that the the YTD , return percentage for CPD is .68%.

But hey, you feel free to quote ishares promotional material and returns from the past 12 months, if it makes you comfy.

Now, CPD will surely pay out its remaining distributions for the year, but the value of the fund may also continue to fall.

The point is, that YTD, (not over 10 years, not last year, not in 2020) the fund is not producing 4.4%

And especially since CPD, is supposed to be positively impacted by rising rates, the fact that it is losing value seems odd.

Not this may not be the case next year, and I’m sure you can come up with a bizarre theory or formula to explain it all to the rest of us financially challenged, but it is just a discussion point that doesn’t really require your arrogant responses.

#106 Damifino on 10.22.18 at 11:12 am

#75 Hamsterwheelie

Everyone hates landlords but if your gov’t hates em too then they will disappear. So good luck in that rental market ;landlords will sell & no one is building more rentals = even crazier rent prices.
———————————

I don’t hate my landlord. I find it hard to hate someone I’ve never even met. I pay my rent to a building manager and I doubt he sees much of the landlord either.

Everything is done by the book. The rent is controlled by the BC government and rises annually by about 2%. Damage to the structure is repaired (albeit, a bit slowly) and old appliances get replaced (eventually).

Here in Vancouver more and more purpose-built rentals are coming online, or are in the works. Supplying accommodation is a business. It is best performed by business people. It’s better that way.

The problems you predict arise when basements and so-called ‘investment properties’ are put on the rental market by people whose real priority is capital gain.

#107 Divya on 10.22.18 at 11:14 am

Faith Goldy for Toronto Mayor!!! Only candidate who can reverse the chaos Tory has created and the mess Keesmat would make. VOTE GOLDY. Goldy has got it going on :-)

#108 Ubul on 10.22.18 at 11:15 am

From CBC: $2.6 billion Canadian taxpayer bailout write off to Chrysler!

The Liberal government has quietly written off a $2.6-billion auto-sector loan that was cobbled together to save Chrysler during the 2009 global economic meltdown.

The write-off, among the largest ever for a taxpayer-funded bailout, is buried in a volume of the 2018 Public Accounts of Canada, tabled in Parliament on Friday.

The reference contains no explanation for the write-off, identifying neither the business that received the loan nor the sector of the economy.

But CBC News has confirmed the money was lent on March 30, 2009, to Chrysler LLC by the federal government – a non-performing loan that grew with interest over the following nine years. The loan was made by the Harper government, in co-operation with the Ontario government.

“After exhausting all potential avenues for recovery, a $1.125 billion US principal plus accrued interest write-off in respect of ‘Old Chrysler’ occurred in March,” said John Babcock of Global Affairs Canada, the department responsible.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/chrysler-auto-loan-canada-account-write-off-edc-bailout-taxpayer-wudrick-milke-1.4871648

#109 AB Boxster on 10.22.18 at 11:22 am

#94 Gravy Train on 10.22.18 at 8:53 am

“CDN index ETFs down about 2% YTD. Europe down about 3%. Emerging markets down 10%.” Have you even looked at earnings? In the near term you should be focused on ROI, not share price! Finance 101. :)

——————————————–
Go ahead, look at earnings.

Earnings are certainly one component of stock price.

Using your theories and stats, they make up an important component.

However, you know that the stock market is more a reflection of future earning potential, right?

So given that earnings are important, maybe explain why Amazon has a P/E of 139 while Apple has a P/E of 18.5?

Does the share price of Amazon at around $1800 per share reflect its current earnings like the share price of $222 reflects its current earnings?

Or are there other factors that influence markets, such as interest rate policy, consumer sentiment, geopolitical issue, trade policy, etc, etc, etc?

Did the global financial crisis of 2008 happen because business fundamentals and earnings were bad, or did it happen for other reasons?

And these other reasons, essentially decimated the world’s economy for the next 10 years.

And this had nothing to do with earnings.

But you focus on earnings to the exclusion of all else.
I’m sure you will be successful with this strategy.

#110 Dandelionfluff on 10.22.18 at 11:36 am

Cerberus is looking a little less threatening today.

#111 IHCTD9 on 10.22.18 at 11:36 am

#72 Blackdog on 10.21.18 at 10:11 pm
@MF #57 re:”Biggest myth in the world. Repeat after me. Biggest myth that MJ is not addictive.”

Cannabis is not generally physically addictive as opposed to much more harmful drugs, for example alcohol. Cannabis can induce psychological dependence in people with a tendency towards addiction and pre-existing mental health issues, but so can many substances (food, sex, power). Generally, the mental health issues exists first, which is the basis for the psychological dependence on cannabis, or other subtances or activities. Given cannabis’s drastically lower risk profile as compared to other drugs, research shows it has great potential in a harm reduction approach to be used as a substitute for drugs which really ARE physically addictive (alcohol, opioids, etc).
____

Ms. IH has watched many marriages go down in flames. Flames that burn hubby’s finances for life, burning hubby’s kids for life, and incinerating an otherwise perfectly happy family all for the lack of one thing.

That one thing was the ability to cease smoking MJ.

The stuff is addictive, it’s habit forming, and folks that use it regularly will have trouble stopping, no matter how high the stakes get.

#112 CharlestheHammer on 10.22.18 at 11:42 am

Whenever a post like #3 starts with describing the US as extreme right wing, I know they are selling something. Extreme is throwing commies from helicopters. Extreme is not allowing CA to violate immigration law without any consequences that i can see.

Make no mistake, that extreme right wing country is paying the full cost for much of the drugs and medical innovation you free ride off of. Pulling a single medical statistic that looks bad is a ridiculous argument. Canadian free health care killed my father because of an incompetent surgery. Does that incident define Canadian health care as primarily a manslaughter inducing organization.

I am sorry to waste your time, i just get tired of reading this kind of vomit.

#113 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.22.18 at 12:12 pm

@#102 Yorkville

“even more ridiculous are Faith supporters who think a white power candidate had a snowball chance in hell of winning…”

++++

I wouldn’t be too smug about the intelligence of voters in the Land of Rob and Doug Ford……

Protest votes take many forms.

#114 Remembrancer on 10.22.18 at 12:27 pm

Re:#3 Ustabe on 10.21.18 at 4:09 pm
#112 CharlestheHammer on 10.22.18 at 11:42 am

Not to belittle your loss and very good point taken on a single statistical point does not make an argument, but Ustabe’s use of maternal mortality is a WHO-recognized proxy for public health that applies to multiple related conditions and factors across the population, not a single point. While the US has many things to be proud of, this is clearly not one of them.

#115 Remembrancer on 10.22.18 at 12:29 pm

#110 Dandelionfluff on 10.22.18 at 11:36 am
Cerberus is looking a little less threatening today.

BRAVO!

#116 IHCTD9 on 10.22.18 at 12:30 pm

#107 Divya on 10.22.18 at 11:14 am
Faith Goldy for Toronto Mayor!!! Only candidate who can reverse the chaos Tory has created and the mess Keesmat would make. VOTE GOLDY. Goldy has got it going on :-)
____

She’s a lot easier on the eyes than Tory – but Man, this is the lady who was too extreme for Rebel Media to keep on staff lol!

#117 Boots on the Ground in Ptown on 10.22.18 at 12:41 pm

#87 and 88 TurnerNation
———————————————————
100% Bang on, agreed. Have cogitated for a few yrs now on those very same likely events. The banks- and associated insurances etc- will always win.

The hidden ugly underbelly of how those ambitious goals for 2030 will be met are then obvious when you read the full text of A 2030. It sounds real rosy until some other, more familiar, text flashes through the back of my mind. “When they shall say peace and safety…”

#118 SunnyDays on 10.22.18 at 12:54 pm

#109 AB Boxster on 10.22.18 at 11:22 am
#94 Gravy Train on 10.22.18 at 8:53 am

Plot CPD against CADUSD for the last 10 years in your favourite financial website, and you will see what you are betting on by investing in CPD.

#119 bdwy sktrn on 10.22.18 at 1:04 pm

pot stocks getting killed.

tony gets credit.
it was about the surest thing i’ve seen in a decade.
still -80% to come.

short freely.

#120 Penny Henny on 10.22.18 at 1:18 pm

#61 NFN_NLN on 10.21.18 at 8:24 pm
#16 Penny Henny

I’ve also been burned by CPD. Not sure what to do. Luckily my Pot stocks have been carrying the weight.

CPD is up 1.2% YTD with a total return of 4.54%. – Garth

/////////////////////////////

Jan 2, 2018 CPD closed trading at $14.35, today it is trading at $14.02.
Distributions total $0.447 so far this year.
So in total stock is down 33 cents but distributions are up 44.7 cents, net return of 11.7 cents = 0.81%

Your numbers confuse me Garth

#121 Steven Rowlandson on 10.22.18 at 1:19 pm

Taxing income and consumption makes some sense. Taxing possessions purchased with after-tax dollars makes none. – Garth

I am assuming you are talking about property taxes Garth.

#122 AGuyInVancouver on 10.22.18 at 1:21 pm

#26 majik on 10.21.18 at 6:03 pm
NPA hold all the cards in Vancouver council. They are anti-tax and pro-developer. Stewart will get nothing done. Everybody was focused on the mayoral race and completely ignored the big lurch in the other direction on the council.
_ _ _
Nope, there are five other councillors on the Left and the Greens are no fans of developers. They mayor will cast the deciding vote.

If the Province of BC and the City of Vancouver send out the message foreign capital is no longer welcome in the residential market I am totally fine with that. This weekend no less a source than Bloomberg outlined the problems it has caused in Vancouver:

The City That Had Too Much Money
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-10-20/vancouver-is-drowning-in-chinese-money

#123 jess on 10.22.18 at 1:36 pm

frankensteins created by the “city” of london – global finance
us 19% and the uk 25% global market add others and ex colonies etc hong kong singapore dubai cypress 40%?

“The Spider’s Web – Britain’s Second Empire. TRUSTS
invisible arrangements
belonging to nobody!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=np_ylvc8Zj8

#124 espressobob on 10.22.18 at 1:47 pm

Prefs are one of those positions that require patience. Most lack this fundamental and react at the worst possible moment. Bummer.

The whole point of owning any asset class is to make a profit over the long haul, not complicated. Rate resets are on sale.

Short term thinking equals long term losses.

#125 Fish on 10.22.18 at 2:11 pm

OREA loses real estate licensing education
NewsBoards & AssociationsJan 30, 2017
By Tony Palermo

https://www.remonline.com/orea-loses-real-estate-licensing-education/

#126 JB on 10.22.18 at 2:18 pm

#35 jojo on 10.21.18 at 6:50 pm

In my opinion we are not watching the rise of socialism, we are watching the final destruction of this evil program that has turned society into a bunch dead head zombies who salivate over their next legal joint instead of driving forward to create wealth for their families. They demand services, they demand programs, they demand supports….

They demand that the state look after their failing parents becuase they have kids to raise….
This is socialism. An addicted society.
The legalization is cannabis will go down in history as the final destruction of society.
Let me tell you a story of what I have experienced with this evil.

It had destroyed 2 friends of ours.
For 20 years we have travelled for a week a year with 5 other couples to the Caribbean.
3 years ago – one couple went on cannabis for PTSD (retired Military). For 3 years they have been smoking cannabis daily.
We didn’t go South 2 years ago due to other commitmments. But the other couples said this particular couple behaved oddly all week and were shadows of themselves and very angry all week.
Last year everyone connected in Cuba, I was shocked when I saw this couple in person. They had lost incredbile weight. They looked like addicts….

The wife sat in the lobby of the hotel at checkin and called everyone a-holes becuase their room wasn’t ready…. We were shocked.

They stayed in their rooms for 2 days and at mid week the wife emerged to say if she didn’t get pot she was gonna go crazy.
The flight company were called and this couple was put on the next flight home….
They locked them in their room for the day until they were taken by special taxi to the airport.
What we witnessed was the complete destruction of 2 people…..

Is this the future of Canada????
Blame socialism – it wanted to control you…. It legalized dope to make you stupid and compliant.
After this episode last year, I’d say our future is dim….
………………………………………………………………..
All this thanks to our ex bouncer, actor, teacher and wanna be Prime Minister. If T2 has the guts to do something really good for Canada he would have created employment opportunities via tax grants to evolving companies in technology and assisted what is left of our manufacturing companies. But no he decided to schlep to the lowest common denominator of the millennial’s. Legalized Pot! Well kiddies you’ve got what you asked for.
Oh I’m sorry kiddies whats that? He gave you Legal Pot but you don’t have jobs to pay for it?
Elect him again and maybe he will make it free, because a Pot Smoking Canadian is a Pot Smoking Canadian is a Pot Smoking Canadian!
LMAO

#127 Ubul on 10.22.18 at 2:33 pm

#124 espressobob

The conversation revolves around the specific question: what makes CPD act differently then expected?

Generic clichés don’t address the issue, they just sound arrogant.

#105 AB Boxster

The point is, that YTD, (not over 10 years, not last year, not in 2020) the fund is not producing 4.4%

And especially since CPD, is supposed to be positively impacted by rising rates, the fact that it is losing value seems odd.

#128 IHCTD9 on 10.22.18 at 2:38 pm

#103 PastThePeak on 10.22.18 at 11:01 am
#78 Dan on 10.21.18 at 11:31 pm
In the last 15 years, the western world as we once knew it, is becoming insane, I think we are slowly experiencing what will be known as the end of Western civilization through social erosion. I need to get my shack in Northern QC or BC and stock up on ammo, seeds and bear traps….
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Hence my screen name (no, it doesn’t refer to real estate…:).

I firmly believe that “western society” is in a long term decline, due to a number of factors (social / cultural, economic, demographic). The start of the millennia is likely to be seen as the peak.

That being said, I don’t see any dramatic decline – just a slow erosion for decades. No hurry for your “guns ‘n ammo plan – though if you like the rural areas, it can be a much lower cost of living.
____

I agree. I like Joseph Tainters assessment in how as we grow, our society becomes more complex. As more problems are solved via ever more complexity – the cost of it all eventually stalls our increases in quality of life to where we all pay more every year, but the standard of living stays the same. Eventually, we have no choice but to start going backwards.

I think that the individual States that start having troubles will eventually become a Global complexity issue as multinational organizations offer help with collective money. An example is the IMF helping various EU countries with loans to keep them afloat. You, and I as individual Canadians have backstopped those loans with our taxes as Canada helps fund the IMF.

Some day, I think huge global financial “insurance companies” similar to the IMF, will be supporting most of the economies on the planet. Everyone will have skin in the game through their quotas paid into the funding pools of same. This will drain the last of the above board wealth of the world after which these future IMF’s will start declining in their ability to lend, and that which they sought to prevent, will slowly start taking place.

Although we definitely could face more abrupt and disastrous ends than this, it all heads in the same direction.

You never know – guns ‘n’ ammo may not be a bad idea!

#129 espressobob on 10.22.18 at 3:05 pm

The pot argument is sad on so many levels. A gateway more towards attitude than anything productive?

Being the best at whatever you do in this life for yourself or others has more merit than being a stoned dumbass . DUH!

#130 jess on 10.22.18 at 3:08 pm

Global complexity
under errors and omissions imf balance of trade
(illicit financial flows )

bail-outs and austerity

Danske Bank’s choice of CEO blocked by Danish regulator

Bank hit by money-laundering scandal dealt humiliating blow as candidate rejected

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/oct/17/danske-bank-choice-of-chief-blocked-by-danish-regulator

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2018/10/11/londons-financial-flows-are-polluted-by-laundered-money

#131 yorkville renter on 10.22.18 at 3:37 pm

#113 – with about half of Toronto being from somewhere in the world, there is ZERO CHANCE a bigot will be mayor of Toronto.

RoFo and DoFo appeal to minorities because they are conservative.

#132 espressobob on 10.22.18 at 3:41 pm

#127 Ubul

As investing goes nothing is guaranteed in the short term. Goes with Prefs just the same.

Owning this asset class in a non registered account provides a T3 instead of the dreaded T5 for tax purposes. Forgot the dividend tax credit?

Averaging in is a lot like rebalancing. For the short term crowd GICs where made. Nasty.

#133 millmech on 10.22.18 at 3:48 pm

#111 ICTD9
Pot is now the go to for reducing morning sickness, a couple of guys at work swear by it as it enables their wives to overcome the morning hurls.

#134 A. Morris on 10.22.18 at 3:51 pm

So..Mr. Turner…Let’s propose all people who are making 90,00 or less not submit a tax return for this coming year…what then? It is time for a revolt against the tax payer to say NO MORE.

#135 JB on 10.22.18 at 3:53 pm

#116 IHCTD9 on 10.22.18 at 12:30 pm

#107 Divya on 10.22.18 at 11:14 am
Faith Goldy for Toronto Mayor!!! Only candidate who can reverse the chaos Tory has created and the mess Keesmat would make. VOTE GOLDY. Goldy has got it going on :-)
____

She’s a lot easier on the eyes than Tory – but Man, this is the lady who was too extreme for Rebel Media to keep on staff lol!
………………………………………………………………
Other than Goldy’s views being far-right perhaps alt-right and she is supporting white nationalism everywhere. Sure OK, WFT! She truly believes in the white genocide conspiracy theory. The way she reported the Charlottesville demonstration was sickening. She was quite frankly pushing the far right demonstrators as normal straight up patriots and that anything contrary was anti-white! She has been labeled as one of Canada’s most prominent propagandists. She recycled white supremacist Richard Spenser’s manifesto a great guide for creating ethnic divides. She is a real piece of work. Anyone who would support her is as a wingnut and a modern day supported of Lebensraum.

#136 Linda on 10.22.18 at 4:42 pm

Did some quick searching for data on Google. As per the search, average household income in Vancouver before tax came back with $56,000 to $72,000 depending on the site. I then searched for houses for sale that were under $500,000 & found 3, all of them on Musqueam lands. Nice houses, but the purchase price for the property does not include the annual rent on the land to the Musqueam band, said rent currently ‘under $25,000’ per annum, to be renegotiated in 2035. Carrying on, I then entered a household income of $72,000 with a 20% down, $400,000 mortgage on the handy government mortgage calculator. As per the calculator, a 25 year term @ 5% interest, 5 year fixed but only $72,000 in annual income would likely be denied as the bank would deem the loan too risky. The next most ‘affordable’ house property for sale after the Musqueam properties was priced about $775,000.

For 2018, Vancouver’s council has deemed ‘affordable’ rent to range from $3,300 per month for a 3 bedroom (east side) to $3,700 per month for a 3 bedroom (west side). Even if one went with 2 bedroom rates, those ranged from $2,300 to $2,500 per month. Affordable? Not.

#137 Doug in London on 10.23.18 at 12:07 pm

@Penny Henny, post #12 and NFN_NLN, post #61:
Look at the bright side. Presently CPD is trading below 14 bucks so it’s on sale now, as are many other stocks and ETFs. Black Friday sales came early this year!

#138 1/3 of Canadians Face Bankruptsy on 10.23.18 at 12:10 pm

Garth called it:
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/1-3-of-canadians-fear-bankruptcy-ahead-of-bank-of-canada-rate-decision-1.1156593

#139 mary on 10.23.18 at 12:36 pm

Looks like that Sun poll had the vote total almost exact.