Fake-ish news

DOUG By Guest Blogger Doug Rowat

Unlike Donald Trump, I would never accuse the mainstream media of lying. They’re basically an honest bunch. However, they’re certainly selective regarding which stories they highlight. So, let’s call them honest but misleading.

The main reason for this, of course, is because fear sells. A story with modest journalistic merit but lots of anxiety-generation potential will always feature prominently. If you can frighten someone, you’ve likely picked up a reader or viewer of your content. But fear, though provocative, is not useful for investors. Fear misleads.

With this in mind, let’s also look at Bayes’s Theorem. Thomas Bayes was an 18th century English statistician, philosopher and minister most famous for his examination of the probability of certain events, specifically changes in probability when new information is introduced. Farnam Street sums up Bayes’s Theorem this way:

Knowing the exact math of probability calculations is not the key to understanding Bayesian thinking. More critical is your ability and desire to assign probabilities of truth and accuracy to anything you think you know, and then being willing to update those probabilities when new information comes in.

As a simple example, if the outcome of a dice roll is unknown, your odds of correctly guessing the right number are about 17%. However, if your friend takes a peek first and tells you that it’s an even number then your odds of correctly guessing shoot up to about 33%. However, you happen to be playing this dice game at a Yale kegger and your friend is Brett, a heavy beer drinker and all-round unreliable guy. This information should now be factored into your guess. It might be best to assume that your odds have dropped back to 17%.

News stories are like dice rolls. You might feel certain that you can guess their accuracy, but if you don’t account for the ‘fear factor’, you’ll make incorrect conclusions. Staying unemotional and assigning probabilities to the predictions made in such stories is critical. The media are like your drunken buddy Brett—loud and attention grabbing, but, in the end, probably leading you astray.

A good example of this can be illustrated by plotting news-story keywords against market direction. Looking at instances of the word ‘recession’, for instance, is revealing. Mentions of the word peaked at almost the exact financial-crisis bottom. Now, obviously, we don’t know the exact context of each of these news stories, but it’s a safe bet that in 2009, with a primed and shell-shocked investor audience, the media wasn’t publishing stories with rosy economic forecasts. More likely the content had a doom-and-gloom slant. Remember, fear sells. So, as it probably turned out, when the media was pumping out the highest volume of frightening stories about the economy, the best buying opportunity in a generation was indicated.

Bloomberg news stories mentioning ‘recession’ (white line) vs the S&P 500 (orange line)

Source: Bloomberg

And here’s another illustrative chart indicating the overall uselessness of scary predictions:

Keep this chart in mind when the negative forecasts start appearing following last week’s sell-off… (click to enlarge)

Source: Tradenavigator.com

So, employ Bayes’ Theorem when you hear terrifying market predictions or read alarming financial news stories. Don’t allow them to result in emotional investment decisions. Consider, for instance, if the experts quoted are always bearish. In other words, apply a probability of truth.

It’s best to keep a sober outlook with your hard-earned investments. Let Brett chug the beer.

Doug Rowat, FCSI® is Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments and Senior Vice President, Private Client Group, Raymond James Ltd.

113 comments ↓

#1 Sideshow Rob on 10.20.18 at 2:46 pm

You lost me at the first sentence. Must be nice to live in your world. Let me tell you about my world. In my world if anyone in the mainstream media ever told the truth, about anything, even by accident, they would be fired immediately. Cnn is all lies all the time. Heck even the local news is terrible. My cop friends can’t even tell when it’s their own case being discussed on the news because the facts are so “stretched” for dramatic effect. From personal experience every time I have been interviewed it was so edited that the point I was making was completely misrepresented. In my opinion the news media is the least trustworthy industry on earth. All. Liberal. Propaganda. Period.

#2 Alessio on 10.20.18 at 2:47 pm

So using this insight every time Garth says RE is pooched does that mean I should actually be buying RE?

#3 Judge kegger on 10.20.18 at 3:10 pm

I endorse the column. I like beer.

#4 AK on 10.20.18 at 3:11 pm

“Unlike Donald Trump, I would never accuse the mainstream media of lying.”
=====================================
LOL. Thanks to President Trump, both CNN and MSNBC are able to extend their life support for another 6 years….

#5 Long Branch Apprentice on 10.20.18 at 3:29 pm

The mainstream media…is basically an honest bunch.

ROTFLMFAO.

#6 Bdry sktrn on 10.20.18 at 3:41 pm

Do you like beer? How much beer do you drink? How much?
So what I like beer. I bet you like beer too. Do you blackout??? How much beer do you drink?
Brett.

#7 Marco on 10.20.18 at 3:52 pm

So called journalists are dishonest people. Public trust about them is lower than about used car salesman. It always amuse me they buy food for their children with money earned that way. They are public servants who are in love with fancy socks and monarchy. Monarchy which reside far away.

#8 young & foolish on 10.20.18 at 3:54 pm

Flat and possibly inverted yield curve signals upcoming downturn. Or is this time different?

#9 BS on 10.20.18 at 3:59 pm

I would never accuse the mainstream media of lying. They’re basically an honest bunch. However, they’re certainly selective regarding which stories they highlight. So, let’s call them honest but misleading.

That would be like calling a financial adviser “honest” when they are “misleading” their clients. An oxymoron.

Misleading someone is dishonesty. Unfortunately when it comes to politics or financial advice there is too much misleading going on. At least we know where you stand where you consider misleading as honest.

#10 SoggyShorts on 10.20.18 at 4:00 pm

LoL I bet Robert Wiedemer from the chart is Stan Brook’s hero

#11 Stan Brooks on 10.20.18 at 4:06 pm

Bayes theorem describes how the conditional probability of each of a set of possible causes for a given observed outcome can be computed from knowledge of the probability of each cause and the conditional probability of the outcome of each cause.

For example: what is the probability for house buyers to be exceptionally confused/stupid/broke/up to the eyeballs in debt/never to retire/ and what is the distribution of that confusion/stupidity across the whole sheeple specter (gaussian distribution?) given that average household income is 75 k before taxes (55 k after taxes) in GTA and an average house is 1.5 million, average condo – 800 k while cost of living skyrockets and their disposable income shrinks by the day.

4 measures to work with: confusion/stupidity (outcome) and income, cost of living, house prices (as input variables)

What media is doing is presenting house prices as the outcome measure, derived from economic conditions like wages and cost of living, rates, missing stupidity as a factor.

Statistics and Bayes however include a bias (the optical illusion, perception) which in this case (if excluding stupidity as a factor) is probably a factor with 90 % weight in determining the outcome/house prices.
(i.e. rest of the factors are negligible in determining the outcome).

If you do further research you will find that the bias closely correlates with stupidity, i.e if you include stupidity the model becomes much more clear, reducing the bias significantly.

Given that bias is related to the lack of reliable information and aggressively promoted public myths of foreign buyers, fake economic conditions, prevailing ‘public’ opinion as disseminated by MSM which in reality acts as paid propaganda machine for scam artist real estate cartels and banking lobbies it is imperative in order to reduce the bias to assess each of the above bias sub-factors individually and then address it properly.

As in statistics everything eventually reverts to the mean with the tendency to overshoot on the downside it is clear that every attempt to remove the bias and influence people into starting to think normally again (converting them back into normality from the state of being real estate zombies) will result in horrendous real estate crash to the tune of 70 – 80 % price reduction in GTA and Vancouver, 50-60 % elsewhere, in order to keep the sheeple confused and happy we got the pot legalization and the pride that comes with it.

If stupidity (let’s add public policies here) is the prevailing factor in determining house prices (which is evident even to the blind) and we clearly have much of it around: why would then the housing market ever crash?

Because every complex system, specially those that are overstretched and abused has its Minsky moment and suddenly eventually collapses
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsky_moment

We are trying to fight it by promoting ignorance and will eventually fail miserably.

#12 Damifino on 10.20.18 at 4:11 pm

I saw former Prime Minister Harper being interviewed by Peter Mansbridge on CBC at the worst point of the Global Financial Crisis.

Harper suggested (perhaps rather thoughtlessly) that the present time might be a good buying opportunity. Mansbridge was aghast. “Are you sure you want to say that to Canadians” he said.

Predictably, Harper was roasted on a spit. And the rest is, of course, history.

#13 dakkie on 10.20.18 at 4:12 pm

US Housing Turns into Buyer’s Market

http://www.investmentwatchblog.com/us-housing-turns-into-buyers-market/

#14 reality check on 10.20.18 at 4:13 pm

Globalists control media to indoctrinate liberals into following their socialist agenda to break down nation states. Marxists know socialism ultimately leads to communism. The globalist goal has been obstructed by Brexit and the Donald. It may be hard to fathom, but the West is precipitously close to becoming the new USSR, albeit it a Sharia version, and Russia the last beacon of light.

#15 Penny Henny on 10.20.18 at 4:13 pm

For Doug, or any other wise person (this does not apply to you Mark)
Sorry for veering off topic but hopefully you can offer some insight on the performance of CPD.
5 yr bond rate is up approx 50% from last year at this time.
CPD is down about 3% since then.

What gives? In your opinion.

#16 arfmoocat on 10.20.18 at 4:26 pm

Chinese website talking about Canadian real estate

http://www.sohu.com/a/270176293_310420?_f=index_pagerecom_2

#17 Alberta Ed on 10.20.18 at 4:39 pm

As a former journalist, I believe about 30% I read and hear in our local media; that drops down to negative numbers when it comes to the MSM.

#18 For those about to flop... on 10.20.18 at 4:42 pm

Zillow has decided the time is right to come to Canada.

I will dust off my golf clubs…

M44BC

#19 Stan Brooks on 10.20.18 at 4:46 pm

#14 Penny Henny on 10.20.18 at 4:13 pm

Lack of interest by investors in a low yielding securities in an uninteresting economy with some degree of uncertainty, inflation, diving currency and questionable policies. It is a market after all, no interest by buyers, results in a lower price. Keep that in mind when considering the non-resource sectors of TSX.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investor-education/why-you-cant-trust-the-yields-on-preferred-etfs/article26231003/

#20 Leo Trollstoy on 10.20.18 at 4:46 pm

Unlike Donald Trump, I would never accuse the mainstream media of lying

Why not?

There’s no such thing as objective truth

Everybody pushes their own narrative

https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/truth/

#21 Leo Trollstoy on 10.20.18 at 4:48 pm

The media neither lies nor tells the truth

They push a narrative

Wise up

#22 Terrie Rolph on 10.20.18 at 4:54 pm

Thank you, Doug! I very much enjoyed your post. Well written, wise and helpful information.

#23 Spectacle ( struggling to understand) on 10.20.18 at 4:55 pm

For those interested in some fun stuff related to informed opinion and statistics in an information overload world. It might help ease the pain.

And Thanks Doug ! Very good blog posting!!!
And as always…Dorothy.

https://letterstonature.wordpress.com/2013/10/26/10-nice-things-about-bayes-theorem/

#24 Stan Brooks on 10.20.18 at 4:58 pm

#10 SoggyShorts on 10.20.18 at 4:00 pm
LoL I bet Robert Wiedemer from the chart is Stan Brook’s hero

———————-

I forgive your ignorance. I stated here at the time/a few years ago/ that DOW is going to 25 k first and then to 40 k when it was at all time high of 16 k.

#25 Wooly on 10.20.18 at 5:03 pm

Let us remember that the purpose of the media is to sell advertising to enrich the shareholders.

#26 Fish on 10.20.18 at 5:03 pm

Graceland?

I just see everyone trying to make a BUCK

https://www.graceland.com/about/

#27 My Shoes are my Misfortune on 10.20.18 at 5:06 pm

POTUS Trump can make Canada into a 3rd world country at the stroke of a pen and a tweet.

Who will Canada sell their tarry oil to because even the tarry oil at Orinoco basin is less costly to produce because they don’t have to pay feminists, SJWs and bureaucrats, and sweet crude oil is plentiful in the Caribbean basin as Exxon-Mobil has discovered vast quantities of sweet light crude oil in the Caribbean region.

America isn’t going to need Canada’s tarry oil in the future. Newfoundland has discovered over 20 billion barrels of offshore light crude oil, but Toronto doesn’t produce oil, just filth from the sjw movement.

#28 Spectacle on 10.20.18 at 5:11 pm

Regarding::
#6 Bdry sktrn on 10.20.18 at 3:41 pm
Do you like beer? How much beer do you drink? How much?
So what I like beer. I bet you like beer too. Do you blackout??? How much beer do you drink?
Brett.———————–
One Steam works micro brew Pumpkin . Yum.

Which coincidentally made this post particularly entertaining and funny.
“SoggyShorts on 10.20.18 at 4:00 pm
LoL I bet Robert Wiedemer from the chart is Stan Brook’s hero ”
Because a little levity and humour will allow one to see the depth and importance of a situation.
Please, all in good humour Stan Brookes ……

#29 SoggyShorts on 10.20.18 at 5:11 pm

#23 Stan Brooks on 10.20.18 at 4:58 pm
#10 SoggyShorts on 10.20.18 at 4:00 pm
LoL I bet Robert Wiedemer from the chart is Stan Brook’s hero

———————-

I forgive your ignorance.
************************
It’s his 100% annual inflation that floats your boat…admit it.

#30 Doug Rowat on 10.20.18 at 5:14 pm

#16 Alberta Ed on 10.20.18 at 4:39 pm

As a former journalist, I believe about 30% I read and hear in our local media; that drops down to negative numbers when it comes to the MSM.

So, sometimes, like, negative 30% of what you read?

–Doug

#31 Nineteen84 on 10.20.18 at 5:16 pm

“So, employ Bayes’ Theorem when you hear terrifying market predictions or read alarming financial news stories. Don’t allow them to result in emotional investment decisions. Consider, for instance, if the experts quoted are always bearish. In other words, apply a probability of truth.”
—-
True, but you’re only capturing 1/2 of the problem; the other 1/2 involves ‘bullish’ commentary and Goldilocks-type of market prognostications.
“Greed” is the other side of “fear” – and best to heed pitfalls of both emotions.

Just sayin…

1984

#32 Penny Henny on 10.20.18 at 5:16 pm

#23 Stan Brooks on 10.20.18 at 4:58 pm

I forgive your ignorance. I stated here at the time/a few years ago/ that DOW is going to 25 k first and then to 40 k when it was at all time high of 16 k.

///////////////////

Forgive us Stan for not remembering. You were obviously posting under a different name ‘a few years ago’.

You shtick is very similar to ‘Euro Observer’ though.

#33 Stan Brooks on 10.20.18 at 5:17 pm

Please ignore all my prior posts. They’re all utter garbage. Maybe, if I had something useful to do with my time, I wouldn’t waste it here writing so many useful posts. Humble apologies to all.

#34 Sitting on the toilet thinking on 10.20.18 at 5:40 pm

Quick question, how much of your net worth would you keep invested and how much would you keep in cash.

#35 Ed on 10.20.18 at 5:41 pm

The first warning sign for the near-term peak is the sharp collapse in the Smart Money Flow Index over this year’s rally after the late January 2018 peak.
But another warning sign is the collapse in China’s stock prices, down 26 percent recently, after a second bubble peaked in late 2015, and crashed 49 percent into early 2016.
Emerging market stock indices are also down just over 20 percent, with a rising dollar and interest rates that they largely borrow in impacting them negatively.
This could be the next subprime crisis in debt, as most of the global debt came from emerging countries since the 2008 debt crisis when the U.S. had lower interest rates and a lower dollar.
Cryptos like Bitcoin are at critical levels, as is gold and Treasury bonds. These are all indicators of a coming crash if they move down much more.
We’ll see a major crash 2019 into the early 2020s. It’s Great Reset Cycle every 90 years. It aligns with the Great Depression, which happened between late 1929 and early 1933.

This was copied from a Harry Dent article and pasted here without attribution. You will not be posting on this blog again. – Garth

#36 NoName on 10.20.18 at 5:49 pm

Unlike Donald Trump, I would never accuse the mainstream media of lying. They’re basically an honest bunch. However, they’re certainly selective regarding which stories they highlight. So, let’s call them honest but misleading.

—-

As conventional media monopolies of information delivery and distribution keeps crumbling with their catch phrases, and lets say madness of “laying by omission” madness will just be wretcheted up. For how long podcasts and online videos are having exponential growth and poaching viewing or listening “customers” for their click bait links, this news shock therapy will get even more interesting. It was some years ago that big news outlets outsourced some aspect of news to algos, if i remember correctly sports section was first casualty. Given few years between then and now i can only expect that algos have sufficient amount of data and freedom to steer stories in direction of more traffic.

I am not saying media corp are only to be blamed user is at blame to, way back 10-12 yrs ago, at my old job in a wee hours of graveyard shift i come across article on msn or yahoo, that talks about some research from mid 90s and follow up study in early 2000. At same time time there was very fast internet adoption of internet, basically in a short few year, 5 or 8 cant remember, what follow up study found, was what between old and new study people dint care any more about accuracy of reporting how long presented information was in line with their belief…

#37 Marcus on 10.20.18 at 5:50 pm

#1 Sideshow Rob Amen to that. The media is a Liberal lie factory. Only “useful idiots” believe what they shovel.

#38 NoName on 10.20.18 at 5:53 pm

Best example of some “random” dude tearing apart misleading mass media and fake beliefs.

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCQNqxS0Fu6CmzmVHSlnrShw/videos

#39 Fish on 10.20.18 at 5:56 pm

Upcoming Events
October 24, 2018
Media Lock-Up – Interest Rate Announcement and Monetary Policy Report

https://www.bankofcanada.ca

#40 Renter's Revenge! on 10.20.18 at 5:56 pm

Robert Wiedemer isn’t just “always bearish”, he says the exact same thing over and over! LOL (UPDATE! Same information as before.)

Can the probability that I think he’s right go into negative territory, or does it have to stop at zero?

#41 Shawn Allen on 10.20.18 at 5:58 pm

But Always Assume Buffett Is Correct

On October 16, 2008 in the depths of the financial crisis, when many were selling stocks and fleeing to cash, Warren Buffett took the time to write an editorial for the New York Times indicating he was buying stocks. In the article, he correctly predicted that equities would far out perform cash in the next decade.

The man knows a thing or two about probabilities.

https://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/17/opinion/17buffett.html

#42 akashic record on 10.20.18 at 6:04 pm

“Unlike Donald Trump, I would never accuse the mainstream media of lying. They’re basically an honest bunch.”

When comparing your personal experience with Trump’s personal experience about main stream media, the probability of you discovering the significant finding drops to insignificantly low.

Much less than playing dice game at a Yale kegger and your friend is Brett, a heavy beer drinker and all-round unreliable guy.

#43 Long-Time Lurker on 10.20.18 at 6:06 pm

Speaking of Elvis:

I was watching a conspiracy theory show with host Richard Syrett where he interviewed people who tried to find out if Elvis faked his death. What I remember was that the man and woman he interviewed were smiling and laughing like they were trying to hide something; and at the end of the show Syrett had a smile on his face and said:

“The King is dead. Long live the King.”

It makes me wonder if Elvis faked his death and these people found him?

#44 just a dude on 10.20.18 at 6:14 pm

Thanks, Doug. Great post. Most interesting chart; I’m glad I cancelled my subscription to Marc Faber’s newsletter back in ‘09!
Cheers

#45 Tony on 10.20.18 at 6:27 pm

Re: #8 young & foolish on 10.20.18 at 3:54 pm

Since everything has been completely different this time the inverted yield curve won’t matter either.

#46 Penny Henny on 10.20.18 at 6:39 pm

#37 Shawn Allen on 10.20.18 at 5:58 pm
But Always Assume Buffett Is Correct

Hey Shawn Allen, thanks for the link but Warren was wrong about this in his 2008 article “Indeed, the policies that government will follow in its efforts to alleviate the current crisis will probably prove inflationary and therefore accelerate declines in the real value of cash accounts”

Not that his advice was wrong.

#47 Doug Rowat on 10.20.18 at 6:48 pm

#30 Nineteen84 on 10.20.18 at 5:16 pm
—-
True, but you’re only capturing 1/2 of the problem; the other 1/2 involves ‘bullish’ commentary and Goldilocks-type of market prognostications.
“Greed” is the other side of “fear” – and best to heed pitfalls of both emotions.

—-

Correct. And then there are the truly misleading keywords. For instance, don’t bother plotting ‘stormy’ right now.

—Doug

#48 espressobob on 10.20.18 at 6:53 pm

Good post Doug.

These charts just prove how futile market timing can be. Even a contrarian approach has its flaws. Makes one think.

Thanks.

#49 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 10.20.18 at 7:07 pm

Reality is subjective, not objective. Everyone has an agenda.

#50 Terry on 10.20.18 at 7:10 pm

“Unlike Donald Trump, I would never accuse the mainstream media of lying. They’re basically an honest bunch. However, they’re certainly selective regarding which stories they highlight. So, let’s call them honest but misleading.”

So Ryan are you and Garth competing now on who can get the most comments posted for baiting Trump supporters? Secondly, “let’s call the MSM honest????” Are you kidding me? All I can say here is you guys really don’t get it. I think it’s about time I recycle y’all to the trash bin shredder. I’ve just about had enough of all this leftist Liberal claptrap from this blogpost. I see that Trump is also living rent free in your head.

#51 Shawn Allen on 10.20.18 at 7:12 pm

Warren Buffett Wrong??

#44 Penny Henny on 10.20.18 at 6:39 pm
#37 Shawn Allen on 10.20.18 at 5:58 pm
But Always Assume Buffett Is Correct

Hey Shawn Allen, thanks for the link but Warren was wrong about this in his 2008 article “Indeed, the policies that government will follow in its efforts to alleviate the current crisis will probably prove inflationary and therefore accelerate declines in the real value of cash accounts”

Not that his advice was wrong.

************************************
Right, the inflation that almost everyone expected from the money printing never did show up much in CPA.

Also Warren is indeed sometimes wrong. But based on probabilities the smart bet is always to assume he is correct.

#52 millmech on 10.20.18 at 7:22 pm

Banks raising rates 25BPS on Monday, 25bps on Wednesday

#53 boomorbust on 10.20.18 at 7:27 pm

#11 Stan Brooks

Good post, thanks for taking the time to point out some of the non-obvious bits.

#54 For those about to flop... on 10.20.18 at 7:28 pm

Pink Pumpkins being carved in Vancouver.

Here’s another person struggling with a 2015 purchase.

Picked up late that year, they have been trying to reverse the transaction since the summer of 2016,when compared to now, things were still reasonably intact.

No sale all that time does not bode well for them,although they still are asking above what they paid which is 2.68

Having it on the market every year for the last three suggests they are serious,but maybe they are one of the ones that are just gonna hang on to the edge of the magic carpet and ride it down.

Stock up on velcro if you are going to do that, as it’s going to be a bumpy ride…

3947 W 18th Avenue, Vancouver paid 2.68 November 2015 ass3.01

Aug 28:$2,920,000
Oct 19: $2,860,000
Change: $-60,000.00 -2%

https://blurealty.com/r2316771-3947-w-18th-avenue

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/3947-w-18th-avenue

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Feel free to make a donation.

Flop For Fox Fund…

http://www.terryfox.org/get-involved/ways-to-give/

#55 Pathetic PhD on 10.20.18 at 7:50 pm

Bayes Theorem is about how to update prior knowledge with new information (while considering the uncertainty in both). So it includes the possibility that the prior knowledge is highly uncertain and the new information (news, in your example) is highly accurate.

However, your point is taken and it’s good advice. Very cool figures.

#56 arfmoocat on 10.20.18 at 8:03 pm

When you go vote remember…

Under Justin Trudeau a 3 gram packet of pot is worth the same price as a barrel of WCS crude oil

#57 kbean on 10.20.18 at 8:06 pm

One of the most boring reads is David Rosenberg. He’s a perma bear. Hard to take him seriously when something is actually seriously wrong.

#58 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.20.18 at 8:10 pm

Well.
If Elvis were alive today and reading this blog I think he’d sing,
” Wise men saaaaay, Only fools ruuuuush out…….

#59 Sold Out on 10.20.18 at 8:12 pm

Good explanation of our mis-perception of probability. Excellent troll of the conspiracy-prone tin foilers! So, my strategy of buying two 649 tickets doubles my chances of winning, right?

#60 Ronaldo on 10.20.18 at 8:13 pm

The media:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rCuX4Up-plc

#61 Proud Dreg on 10.20.18 at 8:14 pm

Unlike Donald Trump, I would never accuse the mainstream media of lying. They’re basically an honest bunch. However, they’re certainly selective regarding which stories they highlight. So, let’s call them honest but misleading.

HAHAHA – Thanks for the laugh Doug.

#62 Gravy Train on 10.20.18 at 8:47 pm

With this in mind, let’s also look at Bayes’s Theorem.
— Doug

Whatever you do, don’t ever misapply Bayes’s Theorem—esp. when it comes to your health.

For example, “[i]f a test to detect a disease whose prevalence is one in a thousand has a false positive rate of 5 percent, what is the chance that a person found to have a positive result actually has the disease, assuming you know nothing about the person’s symptoms or signs? Assume that there are no false negatives—that the test correctly diagnoses the disease every time.”*

Only 18 percent of a group of physicians, residents and fourth-year medical students at a prominent medical school got the correct answer.

Think about that the next time you’re prescribed some pills with those horrific side effects. :)

Answer tomorrow. :)

*Bennett, Deborah J. 1999. Randomness. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 3-4. Original citation in Cassells, Ward, Arno Schoenberger, and Thomas Grayboys. 1978. Interpretation by physicians of clinical laboratory results. New England Journal of Medicine 299: 999-1001.

#63 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 10.20.18 at 9:49 pm

Unlike Donald Trump, I would never accuse the mainstream media of lying. They’re basically an honest bunch. However, they’re certainly selective regarding which stories they highlight. So, let’s call them honest but misleading.
…………………………….

And inflation is only 2 %. And the budget will balance itself.

#64 Ustabe on 10.20.18 at 9:51 pm

When you go vote remember…

Under Justin Trudeau a 3 gram packet of pot is worth the same price as a barrel of WCS crude oil

$300,000+ in tax revenue day one…and that is with not all Provinces on board, hardly any retail stores open as of yet and supplies running short before day’s end.

Do the math…

#65 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.20.18 at 9:51 pm

@#59 Proud Dreg
++++++
Its been my personal observation that the Main Stream Media in BC ( a small market when one considers the profitable regions selling “news” consist of Van , Vic, Kelowna, and Pigs Gorge…. 80 % of the provincial pop) will never “report” on a controversial story unless it is so obvious to everyone…. or the majority of the population is so outraged about something…. that even IF the MSM is not reporting…. the MSM can’t avoid eventually reporting “real news” .

Thus we now have the majority of the voting public… sceptical of the MSM , sceptical of politicians and sceptical of the large corporations that spend millions to spew their version of the truth.

And people wonder why we have falling rates of voter participation OR minority govts. continuosly elected ….all ….over…..the “democratic” world.

Perhaps a banning of “big money” ( Corporate or Union)from the election process might help?

#66 GordMember on 10.20.18 at 9:55 pm

speaking of fear….Canada is not even a top 10 country, even be outperformed by lethargic scandis and the dutch

http://reports.weforum.org/global-competitiveness-report-2018/competitiveness-rankings/

#67 David W2 on 10.20.18 at 10:30 pm

Great post.

#68 OttawaMike on 10.20.18 at 10:37 pm

In Smokingman we trust.

#69 Doug in London on 10.20.18 at 10:50 pm

So is there going to be a recession within the next year? I have no idea, but many years ago I read in an economics textbook that economists successfully predicted 7 of the last 5 recessions. Something to keep in mind.

#70 fishman on 10.20.18 at 11:02 pm

Me & a few others out west here have been saying for years there is a tidal wave of Chinese money coming into town. Today Bloomberg’s called it one of the largest financial flows of the 21 st century. Too late.
Guess what bloggies? Its here, its legalized, its like a huge wall of water, a massive tsunami of potential energy. Its coming over the Rockies & rolling east. Don’t sell your quality, anything with land underneath it generating cash flow. The longer you wait, the more you’ll get.

#71 yvr_lurker on 10.20.18 at 11:14 pm

Bayes theorem I understand. This is a good website to explain the main points (Doug did a good job here as well).

https://betterexplained.com/articles/an-intuitive-and-short-explanation-of-bayes-theorem/

I am not a consipracy theorist, but must admit I have little trust that the market is not being manipulated by influential forces who engineer mini-crashes, and other instabilities before mainstream small market people can quickly reposition themselves. With the latest rather sudden dip in a week, brought on by nothing substantial it seems, one small-time investor vacationing in Thailand who was not reading the news for a week would have lost 2% in such a short time. it seems like stories about why the market dipped etc.. are “fabricated” as afterthoughts and to me do not seem credible…. It seems as though invisible hands are at play….. I have a much better understanding of being frugal, conservative with cash, and the evil of debt….

#72 Brett N Chad on 10.20.18 at 11:24 pm

But why Yale tho?

#73 Smoking Man on 10.20.18 at 11:51 pm

DELETED

#74 For those about to flop... on 10.21.18 at 12:12 am

Pink Pumpkins being carved in Vancouver.

Yet another case that bought in 2015,albeit late, but still before the epic Spring Fling 2016.

They signed on the dotted line for 2.83 and with this massive reduction all the wiggle room has disappeared.

Assessment comes in at 3.22.

This house was flipped in 2014 for a decent profit and then again in 2015 for a Pink Draw- no money made after expenses,but that person couldn’t have known at the time how lucky they were to at least break even.

There was a time in summer 2016 that these guys could have possibly exited and taken a profit, but they waited to long and now it could be a painful experience.

What is this house going to do to them?

Possibly, Laburnum…

M44BC

7491 Laburnum Street, Vancouver paid 2.83 December 2015 ass 3.22

May 7:$3,680,000
Oct 19: $2,998,000
Change: $-682,000.00 -19%

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/7491-laburnum-street

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Feel free to make a donation.

Flop For Fox Fund…

http://www.terryfox.org/get-involved/ways-to-give/

#75 will on 10.21.18 at 1:20 am

#2 Alessio

Greaterfool.ca is not MSM. It’s alt (alternative) media. The best journalism is not found in the MSM. It’s found in the altmedia.

#76 Fish on 10.21.18 at 1:31 am

October 22,2018 the average Joe,
Will be able to see how badly they got ripped off
When you are forced to sell or not but according to what I see realestate has to fall alot

Competition Bureau vs. TREB
BUSINESS | AUGUST 29, 2018

https://torontorealtyblog.com/blog/competition-bureau-vs-treb/

#77 LP on 10.21.18 at 5:19 am

Mark Twain said it best:

“If you don’t read the news you are ill-informed.
If you do read the news you are mis-informed.”

#78 Mike in Toronto on 10.21.18 at 7:27 am

“the best buying opportunity in a generation was indicated.”

Trouble with this is that assumes you weren’t fully invested going into the crash.

#79 Wrk.dover on 10.21.18 at 7:32 am

Press journalism is akin to the sexual predator practice of grooming? Sure!

#80 Bezengy on 10.21.18 at 7:55 am

My TV satellite provider just gave me access to CNN for free! I’m considering calling them up and asking them to remove it. Some weird mind bending journalism going on there 100% of the time.

I like my CBC and their obsession with Trump and left-wing ideology. Right now I’m waiting to find out what happened on SNL last night. A top story 100 weeks in a row and counting, talk about being reliable.

#81 crossbordershopper on 10.21.18 at 8:23 am

i honestly can attest that about 66% of all canadians live like their in a recession every day.
i remember the last receession, i didnt notice much different from the people who i see, no change. then the economy got better and the market got better etc.
and guess what no change,
canada is a weird place where so called good times or so called bad times are the same, generally lousy for many many people.
hand to mouth existance waiting for child tax then their month end cheque, its a low end no growth existance.
all this mathematical interpretation of things is irrelevent in the lives of most canadians.
who have no savings, no real assets, live paycheque to paycheque and are generally not happy.
cycles come and go, sure, a year longer than most a year shorter than most, but economic cycles have bee naround for 400 years. and i am sure in 2020 we will have a dip, its due everyone knows it including the fed and their just getting ready for it.
in terms of regular people , interest rates mean nothing since they cant borrow at any price since they have no income or assets.
dealing with people with nothing is kinda liberating, stress in another way, but not like retirement stress etc.
they will live off the government cheque till they day they die, they know that, so it makes things very simple in other ways.
so they can go back to watching hockey.
my buddy said his bns stock is down this year, and i said oh thats no good, i am sure they will go up next year
and my other buddy said this the year of the leafs, i said sure they will probably do better than previous years.
moral of the story, different story, the actors change, but the story is the same, some people talk sports, other business, some politics.

#82 For those about to flop... on 10.21.18 at 8:25 am

Recent sale report.

As Robin Williams yelled in one of his more famous roles.

GOOOOD MOOORNING VANCOUVER!

I don’t know if y’all ready for this one.

If you live in West Vancouver or Westside of Vancouver, I recommend pushing the cornflakes away for a minute, so you don’t choke on ’em.

This house was purchased in early 2014 and they just took a major loss.

Picked up for 5.5 million in March 2014 according to REW,it just sold a few days ago.

The details…

6269 St Georges Cres, West Vancouver.

Paid 5.5 March 2014

Sold 5.0 October 2018

Originally asking 8.38

Assessment 6.18

So 3/4 of a million down the drain,well over a million after opportunity cost and all that jazz.

Probably get someone to sharpen the pencil when I do a CONFIRMED PINK SNOW post in a few months.

They rode the gondola up no problems, but it certainly came off the cable on the way down..

M44BC

https://www.zolo.ca/west-vancouver-real-estate/6269-st-georges-crescent

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=AwSra5p8MDw

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Feel free to make a donation.

Flop For Fox Fund…

http://www.terryfox.org/get-involved/ways-to-give/

#83 dharma bum on 10.21.18 at 8:39 am

News = Noise

See the “news” as just another form of “entertainment”.
Put it in perspective.
That’s all it is.
Simply another distraction from boredom.
TV shows, music, books, eating in restaurants, movies, sports, news…….it’s all the same fluff. Mind candy.
None of it is real.

#84 Stan Brook's Psychiatrist on 10.21.18 at 8:57 am

#23 Stan Brooks

“I forgive your ignorance. I stated here at the time/a few years ago/ that DOW is going to 25 k first and then to 40 k when it was at all time high of 16 k.”

Yes Stanley, we know you did. Time for you meds and next round of shock treatment. We promise we will take you to the burrito truck afterwards. Then you can tell the blog dogs how the humble burrito will foretell the dow’s future and the rate of inflation for the next decade. Come along now Stanley, in the straight jacket you go….

#85 Bart Simpson on 10.21.18 at 9:00 am

#80 For those about to Flop

Ouch! 500k loss in 4 years! Aye carumba!

#86 Stan Brook's Psychiatrist on 10.21.18 at 9:07 am

#10 SoggyShorts on 10.20.18 at 4:00 pm

“LoL I bet Robert Wiedemer from the chart is Stan Brook’s hero.”

Actually Stanley’s hero is the burrito truck driver. When we let him out of his straight jacket, Stanley gets all excited talking economics and the markets with the truck driver who Stanley claims can foretell all market movements with his burritos. The driver humours Stanley and goes along with it….Yesterday, after Stanley’s shock treatment the driver gave Stanley a burrito and said, “this is it Stanley, the Dow’s future for the next 10 years….” Stanley was overjoyed and then returned to his rubber room.He will be posting shortly…

#87 akashic record on 10.21.18 at 9:20 am

“So, as it probably turned out, when the media was pumping out the highest volume of frightening stories about the economy, the best buying opportunity in a generation was indicated.”

The best buying opportunity in a generation was provided and artificially maintained by the FED, and following the FED, by other central banks, QE, at the cost of ending up now with the highest public and private debt in history, and historically highest prices in Canadian real estate, for example.

It is not clear yet how the gains of the best buying opportunity in a generation will be crystallized, how much of it is going to be recollected for servicing the cost of higher public debt, moving forward.

It remains entirely open question how dealing with the skyrocketing debt will be resolved.

Not too many news about that.

#88 NoName on 10.21.18 at 9:26 am

Why this doesn’t surprise me.

https://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/customers-flock-back-to-illegal-marijuana-dispensaries-in-ottawa

#89 jojo on 10.21.18 at 9:29 am

Clinton News Network
Communist Broadcasting Corp

nuff said

The mosst corrupt group in our society Journalists are.
They embed their socialist views into eveyrhtign they write.

To say they are honest calls into question your integrity or your intelligence sir.

You can decide which

The distorted views of posters here is truly distressing. Social media has turned into the enemy, reinforcing biases and becoming a giant echo chamber. No wonder we are headed for the wall. – Garth

#90 jojo on 10.21.18 at 9:34 am

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#91 KLNR on 10.21.18 at 9:43 am

Not sure folks these days understand the difference between news and opinion. Especially the ones constantly bleating about the msm.

#92 jojo on 10.21.18 at 9:44 am

Garth wrote “The distorted views of posters here is truly distressing. Social media has turned into the enemy, reinforcing biases and becoming a giant echo chamber. No wonder we are headed for the wall. – Garth”

Garth I am not on social media never have been because of its security risks and threat to personal data.

CNN and CBC create one massive disortion field by pounding this notion that Trump and Republicans are evil. Immigration is great at any cost, Clinton is going to win in a lndslide, etc etc etc

Social Justice this and Social Justice that. Conservatives are racists, blah blah blah…

People wish to live simple lives and the media has created class and wealth warfare for the sake of clicks and chaos.

It sells news…..

So I disagree, one can easily see the distortion field if one stands back and looks.

CNN and CBC on a daily basis create these distortion fields becuase it sells.

Truth is not important anymore

#93 Doug Rowat on 10.21.18 at 9:56 am

#23 Stan Brooks on 10.20.18 at 4:58 pm
#10 SoggyShorts on 10.20.18 at 4:00 pm
LoL I bet Robert Wiedemer from the chart is Stan Brook’s hero

———————-

I forgive your ignorance. I stated here at the time/a few years ago/ that DOW is going to 25 k first and then to 40 k when it was at all time high of 16 k.

What does a “few years ago” mean? The DOW has moved higher throughout its history, so not much of a prediction. And when does it hit 40,000? Be bold.

–Doug

#94 Concerned Reader on 10.21.18 at 10:08 am

Thanks for an interesting way of looking at news/media bias.

Shocking to see how many commentators here ascribe to the conspiracy of “fake news.” The news isn’t fake but is definitely framed for consumption. People are generally to blame for not being willing to actually look at the facts and do the work to make their own minds up about an issue.

A bigger problem may be that unbiased news struggles in a capitalist frame work. Unbiased/non-sensationalized news is boring and attracts fewer viewers and no advertising dollars. It’s hard to produce great journalism without resources. This is why it behooves us as a society to support the CBC. It may not be perfect but it’s better than for-profit news only.

#95 Evangeline on 10.21.18 at 10:10 am

“85 AR “It remains entirely open question how dealing with the skyrocketing debt will be resolved.

Not too many news about that.”

WRT the USA’s debt, I believe it was last week that President Trump said he is making reducing the debt a priority and to start he had asked each of his cabinet ministers to reduce their spending by five per cent.

#96 Figure it Out on 10.21.18 at 10:12 am

“The distorted views of posters here is truly distressing. Social media has turned into the enemy, reinforcing biases and becoming a giant echo chamber.”

Gresham’s law of comment sections — loony commenters drive away sane ones. You want a decent comment section? Put on the gloves and get out the bleach. Permanent, IP based bans on 9/11 truthers, chemtrail explainers, climate change deniers, sloppy drunks, and all the rest of the cranks and loonies who you’ve made a home for here over the years. No warnings, and no “DELETED” tombstones. Because frankly, pleading for a change of tone from the regulars (or worse, your passive-aggressive “or I’ll shut down the comment section” threat, again) is like walking into a men’s shelter and announcing “Tomorrow, it’s Dress for Success, and we’re going to get out there and conquer the world!”

Watching the bumfights in your comment section, as currently constituted, is a guilty, low pleasure for some. But it wouldn’t be terribly missed, or mourned. Break out the bleach!

#97 Victor V on 10.21.18 at 10:29 am

Kennedy Stewart wins razor-thin vote to become Vancouver’s next mayor

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/british-columbia/article-vancouver-election-results/

Kennedy Stewart, a former NDP MP who pledged aggressive measures to tackle Vancouver’s housing crisis by tripling a tax on empty homes and by pushing neighbourhoods to build denser housing, has become Vancouver’s new mayor.

#98 Stan Brooks on 10.21.18 at 11:29 am

#91 Doug Rowat on 10.21.18 at 9:56 am
#23 Stan Brooks on 10.20.18 at 4:58 pm
#10 SoggyShorts on 10.20.18 at 4:00 pm
LoL I bet Robert Wiedemer from the chart is Stan Brook’s hero

———————-

I forgive your ignorance. I stated here at the time/a few years ago/ that DOW is going to 25 k first and then to 40 k when it was at all time high of 16 k.

What does a “few years ago” mean? The DOW has moved higher throughout its history, so not much of a prediction. And when does it hit 40,000? Be bold.

–Doug

Early 2016 after a correction at 16 k/on Dow 25 k

Expect DOW 38-40 k in 2023-2024 time-frame/with 70 % probability.

With the same probability:
Gold at 2500 – 4000 USD in 2023-2024.
Oil at 120 USD+ per barrel.

How about your predictions on the above?

Thank you.

#99 Heloguy on 10.21.18 at 11:33 am

#90 jojo on 10.21.18 at 9:44 am

Garth I am not on social media never have been because of its security risks and threat to personal data.

Was this sarcasm, or you don’t realize what this blog is?

#100 Doug Rowat on 10.21.18 at 12:01 pm

#96 Stan Brooks on 10.21.18 at 11:29 am

———————-

I forgive your ignorance. I stated here at the time/a few years ago/ that DOW is going to 25 k first and then to 40 k when it was at all time high of 16 k.

What does a “few years ago” mean? The DOW has moved higher throughout its history, so not much of a prediction. And when does it hit 40,000? Be bold.

–Doug

Expect DOW 38-40 k in 2023-2024 time-frame/with 70 % probability.

You expect the Dow to advance roughly in line with its current annualized 10-year growth rate with “70% probability” (hence your excuse if you’re wrong). Brave call.

–Doug

#101 MF on 10.21.18 at 12:03 pm

64 GordMember on 10.20.18 at 9:55 pm

-so a publication based in Switzerland puts Switzerland at number 4.

So disregard.

Got it.

MF

#102 Shawn Allen on 10.21.18 at 12:19 pm

Cross Border Shopper – Get Better Friends

Cross Border Shopper at 79 said…

“…most canadians. who have no savings, no real assets, live paycheque to paycheque and are generally not happy.”

“in terms of regular people , interest rates mean nothing since they cant borrow at any price since they have no income or assets.”

“…some people talk sports, other business, some politics.”

********************************
If the average person in your circle is so pathetic then try to get better friends, join better circles.

#103 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.21.18 at 12:41 pm

@#90 jojo
Apparently todays The Globe and Mail opinion piece agrees with you.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/arts/television/article-what-election-cbc-decides-whats-news-and-you-and-i-just-pay-for-it/

The “bias” in “Media” sells advertising…..I get it.
But truth and objectivity takes a distant second in todays media.

An unbiased, taxpayer funded, CBC News report is all one asks for and expects.
The MSM (left wing CBC included)only have themselves to blame for their falling subscriptions and viewership.
Last night’s 6pm News was a prime example.
CBC english channel in BC at 6pm on election night? Toronto vs St Louis hockey.
CBC french channel in BC at 6pm? Local news, shootings, the election , etc etc etc. Apparently CBC french taxpayers in BC ( all 6000 of them) dont want to watch hockey at 6pm on a Sat ( or Sun at 6pm if the truth be told).
And if the CBC english channel does put news on…..its nauseating in its endless, biased, tree hugging, tofu eating, LGBTQQQ ( did I forget a Q?) lifestyle promoting, left wing drivel that would embarrass the propaganda ministry of North Korea if they were forced to watch it.

An absolute WASTE of taxpayer money.
And when Trudeau is booted out next year just wait to see what Scheer and Berniers coalition minority govt does to it.

#104 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.21.18 at 12:56 pm

@#95 VV
“Kennedy Stewart, a former NDP MP who pledged aggressive measures to tackle Vancouver’s housing crisis by tripling a tax on empty homes and by pushing neighbourhoods to build denser housing, has become Vancouver’s new mayor.”

++++

Well it should be amusing watching the voters of Vancouver explode when they have to pay for the looney ideas dreamed up by ….
Kennedy as the tie breaking Mayor teemed up with 3 Greens , and independent and a self described social activist.
Build MORE bike paths?
Plant more trees to hug?
One term wonder for our Kennedy?
As Vancouvers housing market begins to swirl the toilet?
As the economy begins to creak kennedy has promised to build MORE social housing?
With who’s money?
Get ready for painful tax hikes folks. These socialist loons aint done yet.
On a good note. Gregor ( “we’re ending homelessness”)Robertsons party was essentially wiped out.
Reduce to 1 lonely seat on the Parks Board out of 27 seats…..
The next 4 years will be hilarious.

#105 SoggyShorts on 10.21.18 at 1:08 pm

#96 Stan Brooks on 10.21.18 at 11:29 am
#91 Doug Rowat on 10.21.18 at 9:56 am
#23 Stan Brooks on 10.20.18 at 4:58 pm
#10 SoggyShorts on 10.20.18 at 4:00 pm

Expect DOW 38-40 k in 2023-2024 time-frame/with 70 % probability.

*******************************
Dow is 25,444.
At 7% annual increase that will make it just over 38,000 in your timeframe.
You are predicting the exact same 7% historical returns that this blog has always cited, but hedging with a “70% probability”

Bold prediction there Nostradamus. /eyeroll

#106 slick on 10.21.18 at 1:19 pm

‘Remember, fear sells. ‘
Change the word ‘recession’ to ‘climate change’ and explain why there is a difference.
mention recession on this blog, and everyones ears perk up. Have an opinion denying climate change, and their heads explode.
for those of you confident that the world is ending, remember this; just cause you say it louder, don’t make it true.

#107 Short term prediction Doug? on 10.21.18 at 1:37 pm

rough and ugly Oct. Do you think the equity markets end black for 2018? balanced portfolio +3-4%ish?

enjoyed the blog entry, thank you

#108 SoggyShorts on 10.21.18 at 1:59 pm

#104 slick on 10.21.18 at 1:19 pm
for those of you confident that the world is ending, remember this; just cause you say it louder, don’t make it true.
********************
And for those of you who don’t believe in science, sticking your fingers in your ears doesn’t make it go away either.

It used to be that the 0.0001% of the population that were nutters (e.g. flat-earthers) could be ignored as lone voices, but because of the internet those 7500 people can now find each other and get much more notice than they deserve. Add in a giant orange Cheeto for leader of the free world as one of those and you get “climate change is a hoax from china”

#109 Stan Brooks on 10.21.18 at 2:22 pm

#98 Doug Rowat on 10.21.18 at 12:01 pm,
#103 SoggyShorts on 10.21.18 at 1:08 pm

You expect the Dow to advance roughly in line with its current annualized 10-year growth rate with “70% probability” (hence your excuse if you’re wrong). Brave call.

–Doug

===========================

I think given current market valuations and the last 2 years run up, it is an extraordinary call. Of course it is based on rather aggressive inflation expectations. Every expectation has certain probability and mine is 70 %. There is 1 % chance that my friend Robert Wiedemer is correct… There is 15 % chance that Dow will be over 50 k.

I also expect TSX and Canadian preferreds to unperformed (kind of enjoy how wrong are some people on the topic.) with growth of up to 30 % of the Dow’s growth, if resource sector is excluded it could even shrink.

I also /for the record/ call for 70 /% + decline of house prices in GTA in nominal prices.

Cheers,

#110 Evangeline on 10.21.18 at 2:29 pm

#90 jojo on 10.21.18 at 9:44 am “Conservatives are racists, blah blah blah…”

A recent example of that trick: NBC presented Trump’s statement, “General Lee was a great general” totally divorced from its context.

Statues of General Lee are being toppled and destroyed in the southern states, so it was logical for the NBC audience to conclude that Trump is racist because he said General Lee was a great general.

What NBC omitted to include was that Trump’s statement about Lee was from a speech Trump gave at an Ohio rally, in which he told how General Lee was beaten by the great native of Ohio, the civil war hero, General Ulysses S. Grant.

It took two weeks for NBC to admit to and correct its lie of omission.

#111 Gravy Train on 10.21.18 at 3:22 pm

With this in mind, let’s also look at Bayes’s Theorem. — Doug

Answer to yesterday’s question (using Bayes’s Theorem):
(1.00 x 0.001)/((1.00 x 0.001) + (0.05 x 0.999)) = 0.019627

#112 CHERRY BLOSSOM on 10.22.18 at 2:46 pm

I am perplexed at the high demand for housing. Canadians are not really breeding anymore. Used to be 6 or 7 children per couple. It’s dropped down to one or none per family. Why the hell is the demand so high????

#113 ozy - are u sick? on 10.22.18 at 9:41 pm

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