The wrong guys

So how much stress is the stress test stressing stressed-out mortgage dudes?

Oodles. Enough to have a small army of them swarming over Parliament Hill today (Tuesday), bombarding 50 MPs and policy poohbahs trying to get B-20 gutted. The damage they see being done to their business is palpable. Mortgage originations have plunged, credit has dried like an old prune and house sales are on course to be the weakest in decades. “Fewer Canadian now are able to obtain the mortgage they need to acquire a home, and many sellers now find fewer buyers to sell their home too,” says the Mortgage Professionals Canada boss. “As we first outlined at the time of the mortgage rule changes, it’s now clear that our concerns regarding the cumulative impact of said changes are decreasing competition and increasing costs for consumers.”

The ask: uncouple the stress test rate from the Bank of Canada benchmark rate, and make it a mere.75% higher than what a bank is offering its mortgage client. The difference would be dramatic. For example, a fiver at most banks now costs about 3.6%, but the current stress test level is 5.6% (with the central bank benchmark at 5.34%).

As mentioned yesterday, B-20 has meant a couple making $125,000 can now afford a $625,000 house compared to the $800,000 place they could swing a couple of years ago. The cooling effect this will have on prices is only just starting. As mentioned, it’s irreversible. About to get worse with the next rate hike in a week.

But, sadly, the mortgage warriors are making the same mistake a lot of misguided (if cute) bloggers here are guilty of. They’re lobbying the wrong guys.

The stress test didn’t originate in Parliament. Nor was it Bill Morneau’s fault. Instead this was cooked up by OSFI, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions, which is the bank cop. It was created when more than half of Big Bank mortgage portfolios became uninsured. The reason: scads of families were gifting money to Junior to buy a house with 20% down, thereby avoiding paying the CMHC premium. This was done to save the insurance money but also because the kid lacked the income required to pass the stress test then in place for first-time, insured buyers. As a result, banks found their risk needle was pushing red. OSFI reacted. Now everybody needs testing.

This is regardless of the downpayment size or if you’ll be buying CMHC insurance. It also applies to renewers who switch mortgage lenders when their term comes due – so it’s a kind of mortgage prison for bank clients.

Anyway, MPs have zero to do with the stress test. They never voted on it Parliament, and never will. OSFI is an independent agency of the Government, set up for the sole purpose of “contributing to public confidence in the Canadian financial system.” Yes, it does report to the minister of finance, but Morneau would seriously overstep his authority by ordering the regulator to throttle back on its efforts to protect Big Six assets.

Now, all this will become a tad more desperate next week. The Bank of Canada, by all accounts, is ready to pop its rates again on the 24th, adding a quarter point. At this moment markets expect one more move in early 2019 – then we all need to pause and see where the economy sits. Meanwhile the US Fed is expected to hike four times – one full percentage point – between now and Easter Bunny time. Our guys will have trouble hanging back without scuttling the loonie.

The icing on the central bank cake came yesterday with the BoC’s Business Outlook Survey. It showed a majority of the CEOs who actually run the country (unlike MPs) are optimistic and plan to spend money expanding in the next year. This, says a National Bank economist, means, “all in all, the Bank of Canada would be justified by the data to step up monetary policy normalization.” The score was 51 to 19 (CEOs planning to expand/contract) – the biggest spread in a decade. In other words, uppa she goes.

Says Scotiabank’s Derek Holt:

“The Canadian outlook has improved markedly in recent weeks. The long-awaited rotation of demand away from housing and consumption towards investment and exports is underway, as regulatory changes and higher interest rates are slowing the former and capacity constraints and very strong growth in the United States are spurring the latter.’

Says my colleague Ryan with the yellow Porsche & the trophy wife: “1) the US economy is the strongest it’s been in years as captured by the lowest unemployment rate in decades (3.7%), the US leading indicator continues to rise, and Q2 US GDP hit 4.2%; 2) corporate earnings remain stellar with the S&P 500 expected to deliver its 3rd consecutive quarter of 20%+ Y/Y earnings growth, 3) we’re heading into the strongest seasonal period with Nov to May being the best six month period historically for the markets, and 4) with the recent selloff the markets are very oversold on a technical basis. Basically, all these fancy charts and analysis suggests more upside in the coming months.”

And here’s a fancy chart to prove it:

Say, did you notice the market was up 547 points today? Enjoy the stress, mortgage dudes.

130 comments ↓

#1 Doug t on 10.16.18 at 4:57 pm

DEBT -the world is swimming in it -drowning in it – 2019 gonna be UGLY

RATM

#2 Karl on 10.16.18 at 5:01 pm

So here’s my question; if markets are doing so well and CEOs are unloading dump trucks full of money on investments because of foreseen growth, why wouldn’t RE go along for the ride? I understand rates are swelling, but all these workers shoving fists full of bills into their pockets have to live somewhere and in the GTA it is limited.

#3 Kurt on 10.16.18 at 5:03 pm

God what a bunch of clowns. The stress test is to protect the financial system itself. Not banks, mortgage dudes, consumers, or politicians, but the very idea that Canadian money is real and valuable (that is, as real as money gets.) I’m trying to think of anything more essential to Canada as a going concern, and I’m drawing blanks.

#4 David on 10.16.18 at 5:04 pm

Oh, don’t forget the provinces that also have stress tests – guess you will have to go after the provincial MPPs and lobby them to change rules set by provincial regulators, also arms length from the MPPs. Oh, you also have companies that have voluntarily adopted B20. These broker clowns don’t have a clue what their doing – which isn’t news at all.

#5 Jungle on 10.16.18 at 5:10 pm

Brokers are obviously fighting for the business they lost.

For the GTA: I am amazed the stress test did not affect price or sales so far.

#6 Clueless Canadian MILLENIAL on 10.16.18 at 5:27 pm

So Doug Ford will bring a renaissance of business productivity, jobs and wealth into Ontario?

When Wynne was Premier and I was in high school, the only thing I learned was that I can be a lover of men from age 3 as it’s a social construct, and that I can plan a date with my male teacher or feminist ally from age 9.

Teenage pregnancies wouldn’t go up as females are taught to hate males, but deviance like NABMLA will flourish like honeybees.

#7 Jessie McDrudge on 10.16.18 at 5:34 pm

Beautiful day today in the US Stocks. Trump knows how to run an economy. USMCA is going to really help The Western Hemisphere!

Today was all about corporate earnings. – Garth

#8 Wait There on 10.16.18 at 5:40 pm

To the mortgage guys….as the pendulum swings….

You gotta know when to hold em Know when to fold them, Know when to walk away, Know when to run.

Run….quickly find another source of income soon.

#9 The Real Mark on 10.16.18 at 5:46 pm

Enough to have a small army of them swarming over Parliament Hill today (Tuesday), bombarding 50 MPs and policy poohbahs trying to get B-20 gutted.-Garth

///////////////////

I have small army men that I play with in my basement when my mom is at work.

#10 Guy in Calgary on 10.16.18 at 5:47 pm

Today was about corporate earnings. All is well. Tech popped.

Tomorrow is about da ganja mon. Dabble in da peace pipe and take a toke. Pass da dutchie to da left hand side mon. Go camping and hit da herb, enjoy some of the devil’s cabbage.

Also, go Raptors!

#11 dakkie on 10.16.18 at 5:47 pm

The Most Important Chart In The Universe

http://www.investmentwatchblog.com/the-most-important-chart-in-the-universe/

#12 Bullet Train on 10.16.18 at 5:48 pm

Japan solved their urban housing cost issues decades ago – built the new bullet rail lines out to their country’s hinterland to whisk the workers in and out of the cities on business days. Problem solved. Now every one can afford a place. Get the builders and realtors completely out of the picture and build some desperately needed infrastructure in Canada’s urban areas.

Canada better pull up its socks soon and get some real political and business leadership, and QUICK!!

#13 the ryguy on 10.16.18 at 5:50 pm

#2 Karl on 10.16.18 at 5:01 pm
—————————————–

In my humble opinion, theres no one left that wants to buy. There are other reasons as Garth always mentions, but honestly, whos left?

Canada already has almost a 70% home ownership rate. Over the last decade plus there has been historically low rates as well as an influx of “buy RE it only EVER goes up” mentality that swept the nation. During that time people used their “hard earned equity” to buy 2,3,4 or more properties.

Because of the above everyone became a developer, builder, fixer uper etc.

If today you have a job and not a house/property in Canada, its because you really didn’t one.

#14 will on 10.16.18 at 5:54 pm

The Wrong Guys

Got it. Thanks Garth.

One clarification: the DJIA was up 547. The Canadian index closed up 170, a full percentage lower. Still, yay.

#15 Stan Brooks on 10.16.18 at 5:55 pm

TSX is spectacularly under-performing all markets today.

And then we are sold all that optimisms about TSX and ‘the economy’ which is at it seems completely baseless.

#2 Karl on 10.16.18 at 5:01 pm
Workers have no money, only debt.

And that light in the tunnel is not it’s end but the incoming train.

#16 Smartalox on 10.16.18 at 6:06 pm

I found it odd (telling?) that the statement from ‘Mortgage Professionals Canada’ quoted in today’s post, contained such appalling errors in grammar: “Fewer Canadian now are able to obtain the mortgage they need to acquire a home, and many sellers now find fewer buyers to sell their home too,”

I wanted to see if these errors were in the original press release, so I googled their website.

I could not find the press release, but I did see a non-working link to ‘Parliamentary Hill day’, along with a listing of professional ‘events’ that appear to be saturated with golf tournaments of various types.

Even Andrew Scheer looks uncomfortable being photographed with these guys!

#17 Shawn Allen on 10.16.18 at 6:12 pm

Leading Indicator and Recessions

From that chart the leading indicator was at a peak just as we entered the last three recessions and in one case even peaked after the recession started.

So a rising leading indicator is no guarantee a recession is not round the corner. A recession may or may not occur soon but it appears from that chart that the leading indicator does not do much indicating when it comes to recessions.

A recession is a decline in economic activity. Pretty much by definition it will start when things look rosy and economic activity is high.

Anyhow… predictions are difficult… I am not making any.

#18 BlogDog123 on 10.16.18 at 6:14 pm

They’re still gutting houses and building mini McMansions in my Peel Region neighbourhood.

Those poor builders are thinking: “every day, every week of delay and this place will sell for less than I expected when I bought the house last year. I thought prices would keep rising forever!”

The size and height of these reconstructions is unreal.

#19 Reximus on 10.16.18 at 6:15 pm

For the GTA: I am amazed the stress test did not affect price or sales so far.

—–

Sales are def. lower than 2 years ago, but I suspect that would have happened without B20 anyhow. Prices haven’t changed much overall, except in the areas of 905 where flippers were busy running up values…they’re getting hurt pretty bad

#20 yvr_lurker on 10.16.18 at 6:18 pm

Keep the stress test. It keeps people from impaling themselves with debt as the rates rise, and it is one of many good factors in moderating price increases. Anything that mitigates the obsence run-up in prices in our major cities is good in my view for the next generation.

#21 Doug Riddle on 10.16.18 at 6:19 pm

I hope they debate in the House of Commons tonight that if all Canadians go vegan, then we can drastically cut our carbon emissions. With the savings, let’s get the pipelines built. Seems like a genius move to me. We need more oil and less meat in this world.

#22 AGuyInVancouver on 10.16.18 at 6:21 pm

Here’s a thought, greedy sellers in Vancouver and the GTA could lower their prices to increase the number of potential buyers. Just thinking outside the box here…

#23 45north on 10.16.18 at 6:26 pm

As mentioned yesterday, B-20 has meant a couple making $125,000 can now afford a $625,000 house compared to the $800,000 place they could swing a couple of years ago. The cooling effect this will have on prices is only just starting. As mentioned, it’s irreversible. About to get worse with the next rate hike in a week.

which brings to mind 325 Perth Avenue which sold for $848,625 in 2014.

I think the Mortgage Professionals are conflicted in their message. The message being that sellers have fewer buyers. I mean they’re all over Parliament Hill but they that’s as far as they want the message to go.

#24 TalkingPie on 10.16.18 at 6:27 pm

My spouse and I happen to make just below the example $125,000 (gross) household income. We found it a little tight to buy our $350,000 house, and that’s with 20% down, some cash to spare, zero other debt, the time and willingness to perform our own home maintenance, a DB pension, and what most Canadians would consider frugal spending habits.

The idea that people of our income would commit themselves to a $625,000 house, let alone an $800,000 one, seems absolutely crazy to me.

#25 jojo on 10.16.18 at 6:36 pm

Human behaviour never changes.

You know when the bottom of a real estate market happens when you go to your local neighborhood party and announce you bought a house or a rental property.

They say “Are you nuts”

_________________________________________

You know when the top of the real estate market happens when you go to your local neighborhood party and announce you sold your house or your rental property –

They say “Are you nuts”
_________________________________________

Then there is a time in between where your neighbors refuse to talk to you because they have been foreclosed on.

They are replaced by renters who rent from the bank.
Then you buy the house at auction and start yoru rental career all over again…..

Wash, Rinse, Repeat

#26 Fish on 10.16.18 at 6:37 pm

Ontario Fact Sheet August 2018

https://www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/economy/ecupdates/factsheet.html

#27 Terry on 10.16.18 at 6:42 pm

Just some FYI for Y’all…………………

Trump is expected to GAIN more seats in Congress and the House in the upcoming Midterm elections.

Trump has also raised over 106 million for his re-election campaign in 2020!

Trump will get re-elected again in 2020 because despite the lies the media is telling you………………Trump is doing a FANTASTIC job as President of the USA!

And P.S. bye bye Stormy………….

https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/16/politics/donald-trump-fundraising/index.html

#28 IM in C on 10.16.18 at 6:43 pm

Got an unsolicited email from BMO today. They are pleased to inform me that I have been pre-approved for a $10,000 line of credit …at 7.73% !! The …very…fine print notes that this a variable rate and can change at any time without notice.

#29 Nonplused on 10.16.18 at 6:51 pm

The old maxim that a house that is 4 times income was affordable still works, so at $125,000 a year that would be $500,000 for your house. The stress test is still too loose for solid life-long financial planning. But of course grandma’s advice was from a time where rising real estate prices was not the retirement plan. You bought a house to live in, paid it off, and then saved for retirement.

Of course my grandparents did other weird things to prepare for retirement too, like buy new appliances and put them in storage while the old appliances were still working if they were on sale. They weren’t very investment savvy. So much stuff came out of my grandmother’s house when she passed it was hard to conceptualize how it all fit in. But all my grandparents had lived through the war in Europe, so nothing got thrown out that might have a potential use down the road. Empty ice cream bucket? Never know when you’ll need a bucket. Plus she had a whole freezer full of stuff in old ice cream buckets. No need to buy Tupperware when you get a free bucket with your ice cream.

#30 Shawn Allen on 10.16.18 at 7:10 pm

The Most important chart

#11 dakkie on 10.16.18 at 5:47 pm posted:

The Most Important Chart In The Universe

http://www.investmentwatchblog.com/the-most-important-chart-in-the-universe/

**********************************
And that chart appears to have predicted the past three recessions and is currently predicting the next one to start soon. I mean that is what the chart says, not me or dakkie.

#31 Karl on 10.16.18 at 7:15 pm

DELETED

#32 Linda on 10.16.18 at 7:15 pm

While I can see why new buyers & renewing ‘owners’ may find the stress test more than a little painful, I can’t help but feel reassured that OSFI made the move. Can you imagine the shrieks of outrage if Canadian banks had to bailed out – especially considering the quarterly profits being reported? Or am I mistaken that this move was to ensure no bank would be imperiled by the increase in uninsured mortgages in their portfolios?

The no doubt unintended restriction to acquiring massive debt by various Canadian residents is just another bonus. While I would no doubt be upset by what I’d see as a missed opportunity, in the long run I think I’d be thankful that circumstance kept me from being mired in debt – especially if I would have gone under if my finances were disrupted for any reason. Sometimes what looks to be bad luck turns out to be good luck in disguise.

#33 O Cannabis on 10.16.18 at 7:22 pm

Happy Weednesday Eve Dudes!

The world gets way better in just a few hours.

Chill, roll, repeat :)

#34 Reximus on 10.16.18 at 7:24 pm

The old maxim that a house that is 4 times income was affordable still works, so at $125,000 a year that would be $500,000 for your house.

—-
Ummm what if you have another 500k for down-payment

#35 Long-Time Lurker on 10.16.18 at 7:25 pm

#145 Brian Ripley on 10.16.18 at 3:47 pm
#137 Long-Time Lurker – please see

https://www.skepticalscience.com/fritz-vahrenholt-duped-on-climate-change.html

…The above is a quote snippet from the Skeptical Science site. It’s worth reading the whole piece.

>Yes, I read it. Thank you for sharing it. A good refutation was made in the article as far as it went. I’m still sitting on the fence. There’s a lot more to this issue and quite frankly I don’t have the time to look into it.

I’ll put in my personal thoughts thus far:

-Is global warming occurring? Probably.
-Is it caused by man? Possibly.
-Is it dangerous enough to do something about it? Maybe.
-What should we do about it? Evolve past fossil fuels and nuclear fission. We stopped hunting whales for oil to fuel our lamps.
-Renewable energies then? The problem is cost of building and energy storage. A long time ago I wrote here that the Long Island Hydrogen House guy has the most promising tech. I didn’t say why. Why?… because he’s storing solar energy as separated hydrogen and oxygen gas. All these renewable energy sources need to store their energy and batteries are unlikely to do it cost-effectively but the existing natural gas facilities could be altered to store the hydrogen and oxygen gas.
-The carbon tax? A general money grab. Balance your budget and come up with a better solution. (See above.)
-So now what? Get your budget balanced and give an incentive to develop the new technologies. I’ve read a bit about nuclear fusion. I think the smaller companies have a better chance of succeeding compared to the huge government projects just because they’re building smaller prototypes that can be tried out and improved upon faster than some government facility that takes a decade to build.

#36 Bottoms_Up on 10.16.18 at 7:27 pm

I know the real reason that line was drawn in green.

#37 For those about to flop... on 10.16.18 at 7:41 pm

Pink Pumpkins being carved in West Vancouver.

Featured these guys once before when they lowered from 3.48 to 3.28.

Now they have repeated that experience and relisted at 3.08

Picked up for 3.16 in June 2016, the first reduction still had them in escape mode but they now know they are in a shootout.

As I wrote the first time, any offer starting with a three, take it.

The detached market is going down like Bonnie and Clyde…

M44BC

1027 Clyde Avenue, West Vancouver.paid 3.16 June 2016 ,assessment 3.26

Now asking 3.08

Jun 26:$3,488,000
Jul 25: $3,288,000
Change: – 200000.00-6%

https://www.zolo.ca/west-vancouver-real-estate/1027-clyde-avenue

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Feel free to make a donation.

Flop For Fox Fund…

http://www.terryfox.org/get-involved/ways-to-give/

#38 yvrguy on 10.16.18 at 7:44 pm

almost p*ssed myself reading this poorly attempted fomo scare tactic. how do these SHYSTERS sleep at night?

https://www.citynews1130.com/2018/10/16/housing-market-runaway-prices/

#39 Chelsea on 10.16.18 at 7:50 pm

Alas, B.C. is still in that denial stage with home prices. New listings still unreachable, and unaffordable for any local pursing to buy a home here. It will be interesting if the sellers or realtor bale out first and lower the asking price. The other shoe hasn’t dropped yet…..

Off the subject “Happy Halloween”…. spooky times ahead!

#40 MF on 10.16.18 at 8:03 pm

#33 O Cannabis on 10.16.18 at 7:22 pm

-Good.

Now we can publicly call out the idiot pot smokers like we do cigarette smokers. We can freely implement laws that render smoking weed on certain premises off limits and prosecute the idiots who ignore them. We can call weed smokers out on their laziness, absenteeism, awful smell, and schizophrenic personalities. We can openly advise our children to stay away, and freely explain how smoking hinders brain development.

Above all, we can state loud and clear that the drug was only made legal to take advantage of this dumb voting bloc for votes, and, that the only touted benefit anyone agrees on is that we are going to suck these losers dry for tax revenue.

Have another toke.

MF

#41 Doug in London on 10.16.18 at 8:13 pm

So how much stress is the stress test stressing stressed-out mortgage dudes?
————————————————————-
I need to get my tang untungled after saying that sentence!

#42 NoName on 10.16.18 at 8:28 pm

#35 Long-Time Lurker on 10.16.18 at 7:25 pm

fuel cell and this and that

Honda had fuel cell working car fcx for lease in between 2008-24 and home fuel charging stations that separated hidrogen and oxigan for fuel and they also could suply small porion of energy for hoouse, or same station could provide power for fuelcell car and charge hybrid or battery car, and for some reason “we” went for battery cars…

There is some simplicity with electric car when it comes to moving parts, but making and recycling battery is very difficult and expensive.


Home Energy Station is the name of Honda’s heat and electricity generator for the home as well as a fuel provider for hydrogen-powered fuel cell vehicles. HES IV is able to supply a sufficient amount of hydrogen to power a fuel cell vehicle, such as the Honda FCX, for daily operation while providing electricity for an average-sized household on an average days usage of energy.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Home_Energy_Station

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Honda_FCX

pros and cons electric vs hidrogen cars
https://youtu.be/f7MzFfuNOtY

#43 Nineteen84 on 10.16.18 at 8:31 pm

“Basically, all these fancy charts and analysis suggests more upside in the coming months.”
——————————————————-

I’m looking at the chart in a different way: I measured the distance between the vertical grey bands (the recessions), and figure that the next one should be just around the corner.
But I don’t drive a Porche nor do I have a trophy wife. However, I understand the human tendency to extend the recent past into the indefinite future!
I’m >50% cash now.

1984

The Measuring Indicator. Impressive. – Garth

#44 Doug t on 10.16.18 at 8:42 pm

#40 MF

Chill out Aunt Bee – yer knickers are all knotted up

RATM

#45 AK on 10.16.18 at 9:02 pm

“Say, did you notice the market was up 547 points today?”
=====================================
Indeed. So much for all the “Late Cycle” and “(9th Inning” garbage by the so called experts….

#46 georgist on 10.16.18 at 9:02 pm

Realtors are vested interests. We shouldn’t heed their cries. Same for the banks. We’ve seen them go off a cliff like lemmings.

Kudos to this regulator for *not* rolling over like their USA and UK counterparts.

#47 renter in Surrey on 10.16.18 at 9:03 pm

RE: #38 yvrguy

… how do these SHYSTERS sleep at night?

——————————————————————-

In there own houses, unlike you.

#48 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.16.18 at 9:10 pm

@#40 MF
You’re wasting your time.

Smoking pot doesnt make you more intelligent.

I for one will be glad when Wednesday passes so the media will finally stop bombarding us with the same asinine pot stories over and over and over.

Oh Cannabis indeed.
Keeping the fools placid.

#49 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.16.18 at 9:12 pm

@#47 Realtor in Surrey
” There own houses”?
+++++
Their? They’re? There?

Proof once again that even uneducated buffoons that rely on spellcheck can pass the Real Estate Exam

#50 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.16.18 at 9:18 pm

@#47 Realtor in Surrey

Hey Realtor you live in Surrey right?

What do you say to a guy from Surrey in a suit?
Would the Defendant please rise…….

#51 renter in Surrey on 10.16.18 at 9:33 pm

One of regions where prices are “soaring” is Langley — a market that’s been attractive for potential buyers because of its relatively cheaper prices compared to Vancouver. However, the survey found that median prices have jumped 16.1 per cent year-over-year to $990,000

https://www.thestar.com/vancouver/2018/10/16/study-shows-vancouver-home-prices-remain-out-of-reach-for-new-buyers-despite-slower-market.html

Looks they did not get the memo. Prices supposed to go down, not up.

#52 Fun By the Sea on 10.16.18 at 9:39 pm

June 1 our house listed for 1.69

Reduced three times over the summer to 1.499 then 1.45 and finally 1.399.

Then relisted at 1.349 a couple of weeks ago, today, 1.329

Bad to chase a falling knife, worse to catch it.

#53 Yuus bin Haad on 10.16.18 at 9:43 pm

I remember one time we were supposed to feel sorry for (and compensate) the ski resort owners ’cause it didn’t snow.

#54 Felix on 10.16.18 at 9:50 pm

HAPPY GLOBAL CAT DAY EVERYONE!!!!!!!!

Too bad there is so much ANTI-FELINE RACISM on this blog to appreciate the brilliance of CATS!!

https://nationaltoday.com/global-cat-day/

Cats = by far the most intelligent choice for human companionship.

#55 TurnerNation on 10.16.18 at 9:54 pm

I saw an basket, adjusted by a factor, of only 30 large cap US stocks move up 500 odd points today. What’d I see-saw?

Say when will Dollarama being selling Govt Weed? A buck or more.

#56 akashic record on 10.16.18 at 9:55 pm

The reason: scads of families were gifting money to Junior to buy a house with 20% down, thereby avoiding paying the CMHC premium. This was done to save the insurance money but also because the kid lacked the income required to pass the stress test then in place for first-time, insured buyers. As a result, banks found their risk needle was pushing red. OSFI reacted. Now everybody needs testing.

—-

The 20% down was set – probably by OSFI or similar – as the insurance protection for the banks, against the outstanding 80%. No proof was ever required that the buyers themselves made the money.

If the buyer can’t come up with the 20% down, buyer pays for CMHC insurance – for the same purpose.

How do banks find themselves then with 20% down paid off, still “the risk needle pushing red”?

The only way the risk needle is pushing red if the price of the house drops 20% or more.

In that case, the problem is the 20% insurance threshold is the problem.

The “stress test” is nothing else but raising the 20% insurance threshold to provide more protection for banks, without announcing it.

Why not just call what it is? CMHC is the answer.

#57 reynolds531 on 10.16.18 at 10:13 pm

#47 renter

Yes in their own leveraged to the t-ts houses. Better keep those commissions churning.

#58 ShawnG in TO on 10.16.18 at 10:14 pm

where is Happy Housing Crash Everyone! ?

the suffering of the mortgage dudes and dudettes is making me very happy.

i think we should change the rules again to add some skin in the game: for every fraudulently approved mortgage that is delinquent the mortgage “professional” who approved it gets to pay it out of their own pockets.

that should stop bad mortgages in a hurry, and help getting housing prices to where it should be. ie, a lot lower.

#59 Nonplused on 10.16.18 at 10:16 pm

#34 Reximus on 10.16.18 at 7:24 pm
“The old maxim that a house that is 4 times income was affordable still works, so at $125,000 a year that would be $500,000 for your house.

—-
Ummm what if you have another 500k for down-payment”

——-

Where would that come from? If it’s from years of hard work and savings that is probably your retirement money. If it’s an inheritance you should probably think twice before buying a $1,000,000 house on $125,000 a year.

#60 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.16.18 at 10:20 pm

Says my colleague Ryan with the yellow Porsche & the trophy wife: “1) the US economy is the strongest it’s been in years as captured by the lowest unemployment rate in decades (3.7%), the US leading indicator continues to rise, and Q2 US GDP hit 4.2%;
————–
This is the view from your ivory tower.
Friends just came back from a trip to LA.
Beggars and panhandlers everywhere.
Had their rental car broken into.
God bless America, for sure.

#61 renter in Surrey on 10.16.18 at 10:34 pm

RE #49 crowdedelevatorfartz

” There own houses”?
+++++
Their? They’re? There?
————————————————————–

I misspell when I’m drunk.

#62 Rolf Klippington on 10.16.18 at 10:37 pm

Marijuana will be legal tomorrow and can you believe it, it wasn’t the green party that did it!

#63 windsor guy on 10.16.18 at 10:47 pm

#60 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.16.18 at 10:20 pm
Says my colleague Ryan with the yellow Porsche & the trophy wife: “1) the US economy is the strongest it’s been in years as captured by the lowest unemployment rate in decades (3.7%), the US leading indicator continues to rise, and Q2 US GDP hit 4.2%;
————–
This is the view from your ivory tower.
Friends just came back from a trip to LA.
Beggars and panhandlers everywhere.
Had their rental car broken into.
God bless America, for sure.
They are begging because they want to …that’s the reason 7 million jobs are going unfilled, obviously you haven’t left your moms basement and saw whats happening in Canada. Sounds like any large city in Canada

#64 For those about to flop... on 10.16.18 at 11:05 pm

Pink Pumpkins being carved in Delta.

The guys decided to thrust themselves into harms way.

Picked up for 1.51 in June of last year they are already looking like getting skewered on the stick,with the new ask of 1.49

Will they make it out o.k?

Or will the market give them the Goldenrod…

5710 Goldenrod Crescent, Delta paid 1.51 June 2017 ass1.45

Apr 25:$1,589,000
Oct 15: $1,499,900
Change: – 89100.00 -6%

https://www.zolo.ca/delta-real-estate/5710-goldenrod-crescent

#65 k on 10.16.18 at 11:12 pm

#60 comment submission Ponzius Pilatus Not to sound like Jesus….but give your head a shake ! We will always have the poor and mentally challenged…often in combination. This is the fringe …thankfully and not the general populous that is more the engine of the economy

#66 Cici on 10.16.18 at 11:13 pm

I guess I’m a wuss, but I find it alarmingly scary that
B-20 permits $625,000 in RE financing with just $125,000 in yearly household income. That’s still a mother of a loan!

#67 cheechmydog on 10.16.18 at 11:17 pm

Garth

Amongst the clouds of blue smoke, I smell a class action lawsuit by the great unwashed against the Feds, when lung cancer rates start to skyrocket. It will be a “nobody told us about the risks” kind of thing. You heard it here first.

#68 Fish on 10.16.18 at 11:22 pm

long time ago Butternut was
A name of a candy bar

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hollywood_Candy_Company

http://candyaddict.com/blog/2007/03/07/retro-flashback-butter-nut-bars/

#69 First In Line on 10.16.18 at 11:34 pm

First legal rec. weed has been sold. That will be one valuable purchase, the customer is framing it.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/legal-marijuana-st-johns-first-sales-1.4865855

#70 Tony on 10.16.18 at 11:58 pm

Re: #58 ShawnG in TO on 10.16.18 at 10:14 pm

What will stop it will be the banks asking the mortgagor for more money up front as the price of homes drops in the GTA. All the people will liar loans and false income likely have no more money to ante up front meaning all these people have to list and sell their properties or lose them to the banks.

#71 Mr White on 10.17.18 at 12:02 am

The big question is what are ‘normal’ mortgage rates in Canada? All things return to norm.

#72 Elizabeth on 10.17.18 at 12:15 am

Mock your co workers fancy car but maybe he is his wife’s Trophy Husband? That Trophy Wife term you’ve used a few times is offensive. It’s sexist. From your comments over the years about your own wife and her strengths, I’d have expected better.

I found this definition: “Trophy wife is an informal term for a wife, usually young, successful and attractive, who is regarded as a status symbol for the husband, who is often older or unattractive, but usually wealthy.” But don’t tell Ryan. – Garth

#73 For those about to flop... on 10.17.18 at 12:22 am

Less than assessed.

This house in Shaughnessy just sold a fair whack under assessment and also the original ask was worth a laugh as well so I will include that.

The details..

1526 W 28TH AVENUE,Vancouver.

Originally asking 7.82

Just sold for 4.00

Assessment 5.11

So 22% less than assessed and almost 50% off original ask.

These guys took the,you don’t ask ,you don’t get, thing a little too far…

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/1526-w-28th-avenue

#74 SwingTrader on 10.17.18 at 12:28 am

For anyone who wonders which way the STOCK MARKET is going, look at this one interactive chart and compare the rates on the 20 year bonds vs the 30 year bonds:
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/yieldcurve.php

or this chart: http://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/country/united-states/

or this table of bond values, available for all years: https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield

You will notice that it is ALWAYS the case that when the economy is growing healthily and the stock market is on a rising trend, the yield on the 20 year bonds (treasuries) is LESS than the yield on the 30 year bonds. Then about 1.5 to 2.5 years Before the stock market takes a nose-dive, the yield on the 20 year bonds rises so that it is now HIGHER than the yield on the 30 year bond. That is the signal, the CRYSTAL BALL that indicates that it will soon be time to start shorting the stock markets in preparation for the upcoming bear market in equities. And when that bear market ends, the yields on the 20 year bonds fall right back down to LESS than the yields on the 30 year bonds, and that’s a signal to stop shorting stocks and start going ‘Long’ once more. That’s the secret to how the big Wall Street banks keep making so much profits; they know what signals to look out for.

So looking at all of those charts is is very, very clear that this recent stock market crash is pre-mature, and in a few weeks it will be as if it never happened. Keep an eye out for those 20 year rates to rise above the 30 because when it does you only have about 2 more years of stock market gains to enjoy before you have to start worrying about a recession coming.

#75 Dolce Vita on 10.17.18 at 12:57 am

And here I expected weed purchasers would be a bunch of Lefty college student drop outs.

But alas, the 1st legal weed purchase made by a handsome couple fresh from chopping a chord of wood and a successful moose hunt (from St. John’s).

Good old pluralistic Canada!

https://i.imgur.com/RqxBmXl.jpg

#76 Damifino on 10.17.18 at 1:07 am

#48 crowdedelevatorfartz

I for one will be glad when Wednesday passes so the media will finally stop bombarding us with the same asinine pot stories over and over and over.
——————————-

I have never more wholeheartedly agreed with you. Man! It’s worse than another interminable Royal Wedding.

#77 Big Al (Original) on 10.17.18 at 1:15 am

40 MF on 10.16.18 at 8:03 pm
“Good.

” Now we can publicly call out the idiot pot smokers like we do cigarette smokers. We can freely implement laws that render smoking weed on certain premises off limits and prosecute the idiots…” and ideologically, viciously, obtusely on and on and on.
=======================

Legalization is happening because, after 40 years of a trillion+ dollar drug war, any person can still buy any drug they want, any time they want. So what exactly have I been paying for in bloated police budgets, massive court resources, full prisons? What have we all traded off civil liberties liberties for, paramilitarized police for? 40 years we’ve tried this police boot nonsense and all these drugs are still not only available for all, but the drug problem has only gotten worse and worse and shoved truckloads of cash into the coffers of street and organized crime. So where’s it gotten us? It baffles me how anyone can think that the police and jail system can solve what is fundamentally a health issue – addiction. (I guess in your world a good old expensive swat team door bashing, court process, and stint in prison can miraculously solve everything from depression to cancer). If we had put even a fraction of the wealth we wasted on the destructive and failed drug war into addiction treatment and research instead, we would all be far better off, and the gangsters and mobsters would be a lot poorer. No more nonsense.

#78 Observer on 10.17.18 at 3:09 am

I have recently discovered an interesting thing. Coyotes have learned that “black hole gopher traps” sometimes contain dead gophers. So if they see one they will pull it out of the ground. If there is no gopher, they leave it right there, right by where it was set, but they don’t put it back in the hole. If there is a gopher, they take the trap to the safest spot possible, away from the houses and the dogs, and eat the gopher. But now you have to walk all around to find your trap.

This is, in essence, how socialism works. Coyotes pulling your gopher traps out of the ground, and running away from the dogs (police) if there is food in it. They never put the trap back if it is empty, and they only steal the ones that have a gopher.

Socialism is nothing but a coyote seeing if he can get a free meal by pulling a gopher trap out of the ground and then discarding it. Someone like me has to find the trap and put it back in the ground, because the coyote isn’t gonna. He’s a socialist.

#79 maxx on 10.17.18 at 6:31 am

@ #1

Yes, and THE worst thing OSFI could ever do is to reverse course and pander to mortgage floggers.

Debt now occupies a morbidly obese portion of the overall economy and the cure for that is the value of money needs to rise.

Just as most people have had to adapt to the changing workplace since paid employment began, realtards and “mortgage guys” will need to suck it up and retrain.

Tough noogies.

#80 O Cannabis! on 10.17.18 at 7:51 am

HAPPY WEEDNESDAY EVABUDDY!

#81 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.17.18 at 8:15 am

@#63 windsor guy
“They are begging because they want to …that’s the reason 7 million jobs are going unfilled”
+++++

Yep.
BC has “help wanted” signs everywhere.
“Will train drivers” signs on trucks.

Yet we have well dressed kids ( with cute puppies) begging on street corners which begs the question… “Where’d ya steal the puppy?”.
I will buy food and give it to the dog if it looks hungry. The professional beggars get nothing.

#82 Me on 10.17.18 at 8:18 am

https://www.facebook.com/ArchiDesiign/photos/a.249883585166904/1604649706356945/?type=3&theater

#83 Tater on 10.17.18 at 8:20 am

#40 MF on 10.16.18 at 8:03 pm
#33 O Cannabis on 10.16.18 at 7:22 pm

-Good.

Now we can publicly call out the idiot pot smokers like we do cigarette smokers. We can freely implement laws that render smoking weed on certain premises off limits and prosecute the idiots who ignore them. We can call weed smokers out on their laziness, absenteeism, awful smell, and schizophrenic personalities. We can openly advise our children to stay away, and freely explain how smoking hinders brain development.

Above all, we can state loud and clear that the drug was only made legal to take advantage of this dumb voting bloc for votes, and, that the only touted benefit anyone agrees on is that we are going to suck these losers dry for tax revenue.

Have another toke.

MF
—————————————————————
So bitter. I know many successful people who smoke pot. They own homes, make high 6 figure incomes, and don’t particularly care what a plebe, like yourself, thinks of their lifestyle.

Perhaps if you directed your energy to your career, rather than ranting about pot smokers and how the housing market has left you behind, you might be a bit less bitter.

#84 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.17.18 at 8:25 am

@#80 O Cannabis

Kinda reminds me of Brexit.

Lets hold off “celebrating” for a few months shall we?
If Donald Trump is as much of an A-hole as I suspect…..U.S. Customs may ruin the “celebrations” for thousands and thousands of people…….
I cant wait for the media to jump on those stories, “I’m a unionized employee working for a govt pot distributor and I’m banned for life from the US” or
“My kid had some pot in his luggage and we all banned for life from the US”.

And if you think the Canadian govt has your back…..nah. They just want the billions in tax revenue.

I guess this means all the idiots that used to gather on the lawn of the Art gallery in downtown Van every April 20( 4-20) will leave their garbage at home next year?
No need to stink up the air and litter anymore? Pot’s legal! Hurray!
Lets hurry the process up and legalize everything.
Vancouver needs more overdose records to break.

#85 In Garth We Trust on 10.17.18 at 8:27 am

#77 Big Al The Original

Well said Big Al! You should record this message and put it on the CBC to be heard from coast to coast! Bravo senor!

#86 Remembrancer on 10.17.18 at 8:28 am

#56 akashic record on 10.16.18 at 9:55 pm

The only way the risk needle is pushing red if the price of the house drops 20% or more.

Why not just call what it is? CMHC is the answer.
———————————————————-
I’ll take tax payer funded bailouts for $100, Alex.
Who do you think pays ultimately for CMHC? Hint: us…

Seriously though, the risk needle pushing red is predicated on an environment of mortgagers who scrape together 20% by the skin of their teeth, have no reserves and have risk of losing the ability to make committed monthly payments thrown in on top.

As has been said many times before here in different ways, banks are in the business of moving money around for profit, there is no desire to “acquire” RE at a 20% discount from defaults and have to manage that headache – they understand the greater fool theory…

Now there are predators er entrepreneurs with their rent to-own schemes, reverse mortgages, 2nd & 3rd mortgages so easy even a bank manager came to get one etc etc – they are more interested in monetizing an inability to meet payments like pay day loans and an inability to manage spending…

#87 In Garth We Trust on 10.17.18 at 8:30 am

#72 Elizabeth

“Mock your co workers fancy car but maybe he is his wife’s Trophy Husband?”

Well put Elizabeth! I think this term should enter the language because it is as real as a trophy wife and then the whole sexism angle will be dropped…

#88 O Cannabis! on 10.17.18 at 8:31 am

HAPPY WEEDNESDAY!

oh wait, did I already say that……..can’t memba nuttin…

#89 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.17.18 at 8:31 am

@#72 Queen Elizabeth II
“That Trophy Wife term you’ve used a few times is offensive. It’s sexist.”
+++++

We apologize M’Lady.
Henceforth all “Trophy Wives” shall be referred to as “Arm Candy”.

#90 TurnerNation on 10.17.18 at 8:32 am

One of the most popular facebook groups is “I f-n love science”. People hold useless “Marches for Science”. (When all ‘science’ gives us these days more toxicity in our drugs, food and more big brother control)
So on this note…all you smokers I hope you will not have kids. A grand experiment on your little swimmers and rollers. And strands of DNA.

Our elite rulers must be rolling with laughter. They always said: “The cattle will brand themselves”. Amen and hit the government store to get blitzed both ways.

#91 America the Great? on 10.17.18 at 8:35 am

#60 Ponzius Pilate

“This is the view from your ivory tower.
Friends just came back from a trip to LA.
Beggars and panhandlers everywhere.
Had their rental car broken into.
God bless America, for sure.”

Yep, America the Great! The 40 million living in poverty didn’t get the memo that they live in a great land. Or the millions who go bankrupt over medical bills…

#92 russell on 10.17.18 at 8:35 am

It is abundantly clear it is the right time to liquidate all assets including the dog and buy more property. GTA and Van is looking good since the numbers show we are bursting with great economic news. Anything left over jump into the markets because they always go up and hardly, mostly, almost never, really go down.

#93 Remembrancer on 10.17.18 at 8:41 am

#78 Observer on 10.17.18 at 3:09 am

Hmm. Little fuzzy on the finer points of Das Kapital but doesn’t the coyote seizing the opportunity to profit (by getting a gopher to eat) based on your work (setting the trap, searching for a gopher trap and resetting it) make him a capitalist?

Its not like you are going to eat the gopher are you? You get a gopher free utopia w/o having gophers to dispose of so win-win and the coyote can even claim enviro cred for “recycling”.

The dogs though as the police, aren’t they actually regulators getting in the way of the coyote’s enterprise?

#94 Stan Brooks on 10.17.18 at 8:55 am

#71 Mr White on 10.17.18 at 12:02 am
The big question is what are ‘normal’ mortgage rates in Canada? All things return to norm.

6 % +. In the current situation with excessive inflation probably 8 – 10 %.

Everything below that is a theft from savers.

And we know who is the reverse Robin Hood – stealing from the poor to give to the rich – BOC.

#95 KLNR on 10.17.18 at 9:16 am

@#40 MF on 10.16.18 at 8:03 pm
#33 O Cannabis on 10.16.18 at 7:22 pm

-Good.

Now we can publicly call out the idiot pot smokers like we do cigarette smokers. We can freely implement laws that render smoking weed on certain premises off limits and prosecute the idiots who ignore them. We can call weed smokers out on their laziness, absenteeism, awful smell, and schizophrenic personalities. We can openly advise our children to stay away, and freely explain how smoking hinders brain development.

Above all, we can state loud and clear that the drug was only made legal to take advantage of this dumb voting bloc for votes, and, that the only touted benefit anyone agrees on is that we are going to suck these losers dry for tax revenue.

Have another toke.

MF
_______________________

LOL

#96 KLNR on 10.17.18 at 9:21 am

@#89 TurnerNation on 10.17.18 at 8:32 am
One of the most popular facebook groups is “I f-n love science”. People hold useless “Marches for Science”. (When all ‘science’ gives us these days more toxicity in our drugs, food and more big brother control)
So on this note…all you smokers I hope you will not have kids. A grand experiment on your little swimmers and rollers. And strands of DNA.

Our elite rulers must be rolling with laughter. They always said: “The cattle will brand themselves”. Amen and hit the government store to get blitzed both ways.
_____________________________

LOL, thats all science gives us? Really?

I can’t tell if your posts are just satire or trolling.

#97 KLNR on 10.17.18 at 9:36 am

@#63 windsor guy on 10.16.18 at 10:47 pm
#60 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.16.18 at 10:20 pm
Says my colleague Ryan with the yellow Porsche & the trophy wife: “1) the US economy is the strongest it’s been in years as captured by the lowest unemployment rate in decades (3.7%), the US leading indicator continues to rise, and Q2 US GDP hit 4.2%;
————–
This is the view from your ivory tower.
Friends just came back from a trip to LA.
Beggars and panhandlers everywhere.
Had their rental car broken into.
God bless America, for sure.
They are begging because they want to …that’s the reason 7 million jobs are going unfilled, obviously you haven’t left your moms basement and saw whats happening in Canada. Sounds like any large city in Canada
____________

haha, you should get out of your moms basement.
you obviously haven’t been to any big american cities.
apples and oranges when comparing to canada

#98 robert james on 10.17.18 at 9:37 am

#73 For those about to flop… on 10.17.18 at 12:22 am……….. I have a Trophy Labrador retriever.. He is not really a trophy but he thinks he is.. Sometimes I put an old quilt down on the back seat of my jaguar and take
him with me when running errands.. He sometimes sees other dogs riding in the back of a truck which makes him pretty poop hot and I am sure it has went to his head..

#99 LP on 10.17.18 at 9:51 am

#72 Elizabeth on 10.17.18 at 12:15 am
***********************************
The best song that addresses this very thing is one from the 80s. Go to youtube.com and enter: Willie and Mary.
It’s a song by that wonderful lyricist K. T. Oslin.

#100 JM Keynes on 10.17.18 at 10:03 am

#78 Observer

“Socialism is nothing but a coyote seeing if he can get a free meal by pulling a gopher trap out of the ground and then discarding it. Someone like me has to find the trap and put it back in the ground, because the coyote isn’t gonna. He’s a socialist.”

Captain Garth needs to address what type of economy Canada has which is a mixed market economy. We have a free market economy with a good dose of government workers who provide aggregate demand that benefits the private sector. It is a symbiotic relationship that keeps our economy humming. Classical economics which all right wingers repeat ad nauseam as a mantra had its moment to prove itself correct in the Great Depression and it failed miserably. It was replaced by Keynesian and it has been a part of the Canadian economy ever since. It is staggering that so many Canadians don’t even realize the type of economy they have….

#101 In Garth We Trust on 10.17.18 at 10:07 am

#82 Tater

“Perhaps if you directed your energy to your career, rather than ranting about pot smokers and how the housing market has left you behind, you might be a bit less bitter.”

Very insightful comment Tater. You hit the nail on the proverbial “pot head”. Bravo!

#102 Grandma Moses on 10.17.18 at 10:58 am

https://business.financialpost.com/opinion/terence-corcoran-why-insurers-keep-hyping-climate-risks-that-dont-materialize

Climate hype has been an easy way for insurance companies to rip us off. Government will do drugs for kiddies, but turn a blind eye to what basically amounts to a con.

With the fresh hype around marijuana has anyone forgotten our PM being accused of sexual assault? No? Me neither. Guess I’m not stoned.

#103 dharma bum on 10.17.18 at 11:17 am

I’m in Calgary today.

A lot of bums walking around here.

Like, I mean, everybody.

I feel so at home.

At least the mountains are close.

#104 Guy in Calgary on 10.17.18 at 11:22 am

#40 MF on 10.16.18 at 8:03 pm
#33 O Cannabis on 10.16.18 at 7:22 pm

-Good.

Now we can publicly call out the idiot pot smokers like we do cigarette smokers. We can freely implement laws that render smoking weed on certain premises off limits and prosecute the idiots who ignore them. We can call weed smokers out on their laziness, absenteeism, awful smell, and schizophrenic personalities. We can openly advise our children to stay away, and freely explain how smoking hinders brain development.

Above all, we can state loud and clear that the drug was only made legal to take advantage of this dumb voting bloc for votes, and, that the only touted benefit anyone agrees on is that we are going to suck these losers dry for tax revenue.

Have another toke.

MF
—————————————————————

I agree that anywhere you cannot smoke cigarettes you should not be able to smoke pot UNLESS you have a medical prescription.

The war on drugs that you seem to endorse was and is an epic failure so, lets just tax it. You seem to be a conservative yet are fine with trillions of dollars being funneled into restricting citizens access to a plant.

The only thing hindering brain development in this blog are posts like this. Do yourself a favour, remove your bias and do some research. No it is not for everyone, just like alcohol isn’t for everyone.

Plenty of people use and are productive members of society, make good incomes, have good jobs and have a family.

This day was 30 years overdue.

#105 jojo on 10.17.18 at 11:24 am

One of the interesting things occuring now is the disappearance of liquidity which is part of the reason for the rate rises across the G7.

As CB’s tighten the new word QT comes into play. Qualitative Tightening is the new investing mantra.

As liquidity further dries up and then you add government and corporate debt repayments exploding, NO MARKET is tlaking about this.

Here are some new words for you to watch for
Sovereign Debt Crisis
Corporate Bond Crisis.

Earnings in the private sector will diminish as debt payments soar.

Government revenue collapse at all levels will cause massive tax increases to pay for fatcat bureaucrat and union fatcat contracts…

What moves stock prices up? Profit!

Profit slipping is not mentioned much as analysts are despareately trying to talk up stocks.

Also UBER and LYFT are going public in early 2019, you can guarnatee the banks will keep the markets elevated to get these issues through.

If I was a betting man I’d say that is your market top….

Once those issues happen I’d say April 2019 is where the markets slides into a Fall 2019 crash..

food for thought

http://gnseconomics.com/en_US/2018/10/12/the-ominous-problem-with-global-liquidity/

#106 MF on 10.17.18 at 11:26 am

#82 Tater on 10.17.18 at 8:20 am

Get off your high horse you arrogant prick.

I’m doing extremely well, thanks. Why did you assume otherwise? This blog is loaded with wealthy renters who can buy but don’t. As a matter of fact the whole premise of this blog, which you posted in, is about balance. So spare me your week minded feeble attempt at patronization.

And your idiot friends who make 6 figures and smoke pot are still idiots. If you hang around professionals like I do, you’ll see that if you dig a bit, you’ll find all kinds of substance abuse, alcoholism, spousal problems and the like.

I’m short, shove it.

MF

#107 jojo on 10.17.18 at 11:28 am

On Cannabis Day be careful out there as stoners and non-stoners inhale and drive cause they all say it makes them better drivers….

Sometimes one wonders what we fought wars for.

Society is destructing without any outside influence…

Crybaby (T2) and his merry band of Marxists will be red-eyed in Ottawa today as they realize the next election is a shoe in since 70% of the population wil be eating Cheetos and playign video games on Election Day instead of voting.

Soon the Social Justive nutbars will be demanding a new sex classification.

METROSEXUAL STONER!

#108 jojo on 10.17.18 at 11:36 am

Socialism is great until you run out of other people’s money..

M. Thatcher

_________________________________________

Sums it up in Canada nicely…..

How does it feel to be the other people as public sector workers drive Porche Cayennes ( 3 teachers at my son’s school do) ….., 40 foot RV’s in every driveway, a convertible for the sunny days, a Mercedes SUV for the rainy ones.

It used to be that public sector workers made 20-30% less than private sector workers because of their gold plated benefit packages.

Now they make 2-3 times the private and still have gold plated benefit packages

Just saying…

However, it’ll be interesting to see them eat each other as govt revenues collapse and 30% get laid and program cuts happen across the board….

Glad I moved to Trumpland where taxs were cut 20%.

#109 jess on 10.17.18 at 11:41 am

threats or bargaining chips …lower your oil prices or else
driving miss crazy :immunity impunity is the opportunity
*when you are a foreign diplo
driving in your car you are in your own country

nopec/

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-opec-usa-exclusive/exclusive-dont-mention-the-oil-price-us-legal-threat-prompts-change-at-opec-idUSKCN1MR0T0

speaking of flipping?

” Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act (JASTA) – a piece of legislation that allows Americans to sue foreign states in US courts. Barack Obama had opposed the law, but the Senate overturned his veto of the legislation. (Trump, by contrast, strongly supported the bill.)’
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/trump-saudi-arabia-9-11-victims-compensation-how-president-could-help-pay-out-a7782841.html

#110 IHCTD9 on 10.17.18 at 11:56 am

Word in the office today is that the Sunshine girl today is Mary Jane.

Oh Cannabis, we stand in line for thee!

#111 Canaduhhh on 10.17.18 at 12:14 pm

82 Tater on 10.17.18 at 8:20 am
#40 MF on 10.16.18 at 8:03 pm
#33 O Cannabis on 10.16.18 at 7:22 pm

-Good.

Now we can publicly call out the idiot pot smokers like we do cigarette smokers. We can freely implement laws that render smoking weed on certain premises off limits and prosecute the idiots who ignore them. We can call weed smokers out on their laziness, absenteeism, awful smell, and schizophrenic personalities. We can openly advise our children to stay away, and freely explain how smoking hinders brain development.

Above all, we can state loud and clear that the drug was only made legal to take advantage of this dumb voting bloc for votes, and, that the only touted benefit anyone agrees on is that we are going to suck these losers dry for tax revenue.

Have another toke.

MF
—————————————————————
So bitter. I know many successful people who smoke pot. They own homes, make high 6 figure incomes, and don’t particularly care what a plebe, like yourself, thinks of their lifestyle.

Perhaps if you directed your energy to your career, rather than ranting about pot smokers and how the housing market has left you behind, you might be a bit less bitter.

———————————————————————

Hey Tater,

I can list many people that are multi-millionaires and even own their jet airplanes who abuse cocaine and freebase heroin. Do you support the legalization of that as well?

Your comment was just plain dumb. Sounds like you’re high at the moment.

#112 Guy in Calgary on 10.17.18 at 12:20 pm

#105 MF on 10.17.18 at 11:26 am
#82 Tater on 10.17.18 at 8:20 am

Get off your high horse you arrogant prick.
————————————————————

Did you read your first post about pot?

“Pot” calling kettle black lol.

#113 IHCTD9 on 10.17.18 at 12:24 pm

#107 jojo on 10.17.18 at 11:36 am

…it’ll be interesting to see them eat each other as govt revenues collapse and 30% get laid…

———–

Ancient Rome lives!

#114 Remembrancer on 10.17.18 at 12:31 pm

#99 JM Keynes on 10.17.18 at 10:03 am

Yep – what JMK said…

#115 GameSetMatch on 10.17.18 at 12:42 pm

We are moving toward a one world government, a one world economy and a one world religion. Nearly every country has a central bank now, which is nothing more than a global system that is designed to create an enslave as many into debt as possible.

The governance of this planet is increasingly becoming more globalized and centralized, but most people don’t seem alarmed by this.

There will be a lot of chaos along the way but every major crisis will be used as an excuse to advance this agenda. A “one world tyranny” is on the distant horizon.

#116 KLNR on 10.17.18 at 12:44 pm

@#105 MF on 10.17.18 at 11:26 am
#82 Tater on 10.17.18 at 8:20 am

Get off your high horse you arrogant prick.

I’m doing extremely well, thanks. Why did you assume otherwise? This blog is loaded with wealthy renters who can buy but don’t. As a matter of fact the whole premise of this blog, which you posted in, is about balance. So spare me your week minded feeble attempt at patronization.

And your idiot friends who make 6 figures and smoke pot are still idiots. If you hang around professionals like I do, you’ll see that if you dig a bit, you’ll find all kinds of substance abuse, alcoholism, spousal problems and the like.

I’m short, shove it.

MF
_____________________

hahaha, you sound like a guy who might need the weed.
May help with your anger/anxiety issues. just sayin’

#117 Macofthenorth on 10.17.18 at 12:51 pm

Many years back, Garth told me I was a loser if I didn’t have $100,000 by the time I was 30. I wasn’t yet 30 at the time, but I still took it on the chin.

I ended up slimming down my financial obligations, trimmed the fat on my lifestyle; and paid my debts. Since then I’ve built a dirt cheap, and nearly Net zero primary residence in even cheaper Nova Scotia. Best move I ever made, and it was made on the back of what most people thought was an insult.

Now that $100,000 is enough to last me literally a decade if I don’t work (I wouldn’t be able to afford many luxuries, and I would have to deal with a lot of my own food production, but I’m set up for it).

I travel all over, but primarily I’m in Calgary for the bulk of my contracts. Looking at the poor saps here that are indebted to the tune of 1/2 to 3/4 mil before they are 30 terrifies me. A lot of the folks that were getting themselves into debt trouble did so when the job market is booming, and now they have to deal with the wrath of rising rates in an economy where companies are still shedding employees.

Most of the people I work with seem unfazed. I don’t know if it’s ignorance, denial, or Valium. Perhaps all three. Pray for the greater fools.

#118 Bandit on 10.17.18 at 12:59 pm

Owners of dogs will have noticed that, if you provide your beloved mutt with food, water, shelter and affection, they will think you are god.

Owners of cats are compelled to realize that, if you provide your favourite feline with food, water, shelter and affection, they draw the conclusion that they are gods.

#119 Oh happy day on 10.17.18 at 1:03 pm

@#105 MF on 10.17.18 at 11:26 am
#82 Tater on 10.17.18 at 8:20 am

Get off your high horse you arrogant prick.

I’m doing extremely well, thanks. Why did you assume otherwise? This blog is loaded with wealthy renters who can buy but don’t. As a matter of fact the whole premise of this blog, which you posted in, is about balance. So spare me your week minded feeble attempt at patronization.

And your idiot friends who make 6 figures and smoke pot are still idiots. If you hang around professionals like I do, you’ll see that if you dig a bit, you’ll find all kinds of substance abuse, alcoholism, spousal problems and the like.

I’m short, shove it.

MF
__…

MF enjoying a day in his cubicle……. knowing he’s never going buy that house he craves…. dudette’s got pent up issues

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FydMvyM857M

#120 Tater on 10.17.18 at 1:04 pm

#105 MF on 10.17.18 at 11:26 am
#82 Tater on 10.17.18 at 8:20 am

Get off your high horse you arrogant prick.

I’m doing extremely well, thanks. Why did you assume otherwise? This blog is loaded with wealthy renters who can buy but don’t. As a matter of fact the whole premise of this blog, which you posted in, is about balance. So spare me your week minded feeble attempt at patronization.

And your idiot friends who make 6 figures and smoke pot are still idiots. If you hang around professionals like I do, you’ll see that if you dig a bit, you’ll find all kinds of substance abuse, alcoholism, spousal problems and the like.

I’m short, shove it.

MF
————————————————————–

Got a bit of little man’s syndrome eh?

Which professionals? CA, CFA, LLB, MD (both physician and banker), PHD? All in my peer group. Not all smoke pot, but enough do.

Any impression I have of you comes from your own words, written in the comments of this blog. You come off as a whiny brat, who missed the boat on housing and thinks he’s far smarter and successful than he is. A terminal stick in the mud, who must be incredibly annoying in the real world.

#121 Tater on 10.17.18 at 1:10 pm

#110 Canaduhhh on 10.17.18 at 12:14 pm
82 Tater on 10.17.18 at 8:20 am
#40 MF on 10.16.18 at 8:03 pm
#33 O Cannabis on 10.16.18 at 7:22 pm

-Good.

Now we can publicly call out the idiot pot smokers like we do cigarette smokers. We can freely implement laws that render smoking weed on certain premises off limits and prosecute the idiots who ignore them. We can call weed smokers out on their laziness, absenteeism, awful smell, and schizophrenic personalities. We can openly advise our children to stay away, and freely explain how smoking hinders brain development.

Above all, we can state loud and clear that the drug was only made legal to take advantage of this dumb voting bloc for votes, and, that the only touted benefit anyone agrees on is that we are going to suck these losers dry for tax revenue.

Have another toke.

MF
—————————————————————
So bitter. I know many successful people who smoke pot. They own homes, make high 6 figure incomes, and don’t particularly care what a plebe, like yourself, thinks of their lifestyle.

Perhaps if you directed your energy to your career, rather than ranting about pot smokers and how the housing market has left you behind, you might be a bit less bitter.

———————————————————————

Hey Tater,

I can list many people that are multi-millionaires and even own their jet airplanes who abuse cocaine and freebase heroin. Do you support the legalization of that as well?

Your comment was just plain dumb. Sounds like you’re high at the moment.
—————————————————————
Yes, I absolutely do. The negative effects to society of hard drug abuse are primarily related to the fact that those drugs are illegal.

A harm mitigation strategy of legalization would take away a key funding source for criminals. Would also allow addicts to get the help they need. Take a look at Portugal’s example.

#122 JM Keynes on 10.17.18 at 1:15 pm

#107 JOJO

“How does it feel to be the other people as public sector workers drive Porche Cayennes ( 3 teachers at my son’s school do) ….., 40 foot RV’s in every driveway, a convertible for the sunny days, a Mercedes SUV for the rainy ones.”

I would say the Mercedes, RV and Porche dealers appreciated their business….

#123 oncebittwiceshy on 10.17.18 at 1:24 pm

RenterinSurrey: “Looks they did not get the memo. Prices supposed to go down, not up.”

<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Perhaps they should have actually gone to the FVREB for numbers which shows prices are down 2.2% over the last month and 4.4% over the last three months.

It's so cute that Realtors are actually trying to build momentum in a falling market.

http://www.fvreb.bc.ca/statistics/Package201809.pdf

LANGLEY 1,027,000 257.3 -2.2 -4.4 0.0 2.7 60.1 84.2 91.3

#124 Tony on 10.17.18 at 1:35 pm

Re: #74 SwingTrader on 10.17.18 at 12:28 am

All the rules or laws of economics from the past do not relate or pertain to anything we see today. All we know is the central bankers will be the first ones out the door.

#125 n1tro on 10.17.18 at 1:41 pm

#120 Tater on 10.17.18 at 1:10 pm
#110 Canaduhhh on 10.17.18 at 12:14 pm
82 Tater on 10.17.18 at 8:20 am
#40 MF on 10.16.18 at 8:03 pm
#33 O Cannabis on 10.16.18 at 7:22 pm

Take a look at Portugal’s example.
————————————

The Portugal example isn’t apples to apples. Portugal decriminalized drugs not made it legal like Canada has. Regardless, it has brought a lot of positives to their society.

The people who need help can get it, and the people who have a death wish can easily get access to their fix of choice and get on with the process of dropping dead.

Win-Win in my opinion.

#126 Remembrancer on 10.17.18 at 1:42 pm

#107 jojo on 10.17.18 at 11:36 am
#112 IHCTD9 on 10.17.18 at 12:24 pm

That’s scandalous. Where is this bountiful school district exactly? Luckily teacher’s salary are usually a matter of public record so easily verifiable.

#127 IHCTD9 on 10.17.18 at 1:56 pm

#116 Macofthenorth on 10.17.18 at 12:51 pm

Most of the people I work with seem unfazed. I don’t know if it’s ignorance, denial, or Valium. Perhaps all three. Pray for the greater fools.
____

All seems well, when everyone around you is in the same boat. It’s easy to say “that’s how it’s done” when in fact that IS what EVERYONE is doing.

It’s not until said folks’ finances burst into flames that other options suddenly appear as having been reasonable and sound choices, right from the get go.

#128 Good on 10.17.18 at 2:01 pm

#107 JOJO

“How does it feel to be the other people as public sector workers drive Porche Cayennes ( 3 teachers at my son’s school do) ….., 40 foot RV’s in every driveway, a convertible for the sunny days, a Mercedes SUV for the rainy ones.”

——

Am I supposed to feel jealous about teachers driving Porsche SUVs? Guess what I’ve been there done that. We are in our mid thirties, multimillionaires due to a frugal but comfortable lifestyle with two kids. We have a small house and one SUV that is 7 years old. A Porsche, heck a Bentley or lambo is loose change for us. But yet I take public transit to work (which ends up being faster than driving and less stressful) or on a nice day ride my bike. We are financially free while my friends sister who is a teacher is drowning in debt with the big house and nice Porsche Cayenne and private schools. I would say F-CK face and F-CK my image and F-CK pension plans when my monthly income from dividends alone puts me in the top 1% of income earners in my 30s. I am proud of wearing four year old falling apart sneakers while my ETFs give me ever increasing dividends. Thanks to idiots who drive Porsche Cayennes and those who drank the real estate kool aide my family is financially free and our ultra early retirement is paid for.

#129 Long-Time Lurker on 10.17.18 at 2:16 pm

>Better tech.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/iceland-geothermal-power/

One Hot Island: Iceland’s Renewable Geothermal Power
Iceland goes green by tapping the power of the planet
By Christopher Mims on October 20, 2008

…Whereas district heating in Iceland is straightforward —naturally pressurized “low temperature” geothermal fields containing potable water at temperatures less than 300 degrees F (150 degrees C) are common throughout the country, according to Reykjavik Energy,
the regional power authority that includes Iceland’s capital city—it wasn’t until the first oil shock of the early 1970s that Icelanders got serious about exploiting their native energy resources. Ásgeir Margeirsson, CEO of Geysir Green Energy, says that at the time homes in
Iceland were almost entirely dependent on oil heat.

By financing thermal and electric power plants throughout the country, as well as the infrastructure required to deliver hot water to homes, the Icelandic government not only eliminated the country’s dependence on fossil fuels for heating and electricity, but also jump-started an entire industry, according to Alexander Richter, Director of Sustainable Energy, Global Research and Communication at Glitnir Bank.

…Today, Reykjavik is home to the largest district heating system in the world, and it has been estimated that were Icelanders still dependent on oil, their heating costs would be five times as high, according to Margeirsson. Across all of Iceland, 90 percent of households are connected to a district heating system, with just a few remote households getting their heat from fossil fuels such as propane.

Today, 99 percent of Iceland’s electricity is produced from renewable sources, 30 percent of which is geothermal (the rest is from dams—and there are a lot of them), according to Iceland’s National Energy Authority. When transportation, heating and production of electricity are considered as a whole, geothermal provides half of all the primary energy used in Iceland.

(Although there are efforts underway to use the island’s supplies of renewable energy to power its fishing fleet and motor vehicles through conversion to hydrogen fuel, these efforts are still at the earliest stages of development.)

Yet only a small fraction of Iceland’s geothermal capacity has been tapped….

#130 Long-Time Lurker on 10.17.18 at 2:18 pm

>NASA approved. A shocking new pump I saw around 35 years ago on an Arthur C. Clarke program.

https://spinoff.nasa.gov/spinoff2000/ip3.htm

A Shocking New Pump

NASA engineers are well known for their skills overcoming obstacles encountered when designing space missions; but they are also able to provide solutions for more down-to-earth problems. Just ask Hydro Dynamics, Inc., of Rome, Georgia, which benefited from the helping hand Marshall Space Flight Center was able to provide.

Hydro Dynamics’ patented device, the Hydrosonic Pump,TM (HPump) kept running into problems with the bearings needed to operate a rotor inside the device. In search of an answer for how to fix the problem and make the device marketable, Hydro Dynamics turned to Marshall. Through a Technology Transfer Agreement, Marshall scientists and engineers were able to examine and analyze the problem and provide some solutions for the company….

A bit of the Arthur C. Clarke episode:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7pSJ1GcXCK8