The reset

Poor moisters. If they didn’t have five or six decades of life ahead of them, you could almost feel bad. But here’s a new survey from the orange fruit people saying 70% of Mills “are worried about their financial future” compared to ‘just’ 48.5% of everybody else. Worse, only a third of the kids say they can pay their monthly bills. So is that a revenue problem, or a spending one?

And GTA realtors and builders just combined forces to be even scarier: over 90% of those between 18 and 35 think they’ll never afford a house (which is a safe bet when two-thirds can’t handle their regular payments).

“Approximately 92 per cent of those surveyed said that the dream of home ownership is becoming more difficult to achieve for young people living in their respective cities and 86 per cent agreed with the statement that it is important that young families can afford to live and work in the GTA without having to commute for more than an hour to get to their place of employment. About seven out of 10 respondents said that they don’t think their children will be able to afford a home in the community where they grew up.”

But wait. The world’s changing. What’s been the reality for the past decade is ending. Finito. A new chapter. All this moister angst may be for naught. Perhaps it’s the smug, irritating, house-rich, cash-poor Boomers we should fret over – at least those too thick to harvest their tax-free windfall property gains.

This week’s blog theme is simple: what goes up, eventually comes down. When loans were cheap, houses inflated. As debt and payments rise, properties reverse. First, sales drop. Prices follow.

The evidence of this is playing out before our eyes. Behold the latest stats.

“By all measures, Vancouver residential real estate prices are falling,” says local realtor Sam Wyatt. “Average sale prices for houses are down 30% from their October 2017 high point – back to late 2015 prices!  Attached homes are down about 12% in September and Apartments almost 20%. Based on current MOI (months of inventory) levels, it is likely that we will continue to see sale prices fall for all home types.  The dramatic MOI level for houses means we will probably see even lower sales volumes in October.”

Speaking of how many properties are for sale, on the tony Westside of YVR (taken as a barometer of the entire market) there’s a 20-month supply – the most since the lights went out in 2008.

“Moreover,” adds Wyatt, “MOI has been in double digits for 11 of the past 14 months.  Contrast this to the Credit Crisis where MOI was in double digits for only 7 months.  MOI rose also for attached homes and apartments to more than 8 and 6 months respectively. Active listings rose across all product types.  In the case of apartments, the Westside active listing volumes have not been this high since September 2015.”

The prediction: “Markets generally over react and we might see prices fall by 40% or more from their high points before rising back up to about 20% off.”

And remember, that’s a realtor talking.

Overall Van sales plunged 17% in a month, and sit 45% below year-ago levels. This comes after a disastrous summer. The new mortgage stress test, rising mortgage rates and Comrade Premier Horgan’s parade of anti-homeowner taxes have accelerated in VYR a general real estate malaise that is spreading nation-wide.

In the GTA, for example, there was hardly a Spring market, while the fall buying season withered like the Liberals. Sales of 6,455 in September were the lowest since the metropolis was buried in snow last February, despite summer-like weather all month. Prices have gone nowhere this year, and are still sitting 15-25% below peak house of April 2017, depending on the hood. There are 20,000 properties currently for sale, almost 6% more than last year, and everywhere realtors are reporting a horrible sales-to-showings ratio. Once sellers understand price resistance is futile, down she goes.

So much for the ‘rebound’ and ‘hot market’ the real estate board tried to manufacture through its media lackies a few weeks ago. If Ontario had the same crazed, tax-happy, anti-house government as BC, the GTA would be a smoky hole in the earth since it is (according to UBS) now the third-bubbliest burg on the planet. With household debt ratios rising, the certainty of higher money costs now that USMCA has arrived, the B20 stress test and the fact two-thirds of Millennials can’t pay their monthlies, how does the market recover – especially as we head into winter?

It doesn’t.

Just consider this statement by TD chief economist Beata Caranci, made at a Bloomberg conference the other day. The topic was how debt-riddled consumers will be impacted over the next three years: “Past 2020 it’s really going to hit the fan. At that point you have high level of indebtedness combined with income stress happening simultaneously. So we are definitely not out of the woods.” The next recession, she added, “will be a household-led one.”

So, it’s simple. Moisters should just wait. Don’t worry about high house prices. They’ll get fixed.

And for the Boomers? Do not under any circumstances show a young person this blog – until after they’ve made you a firm offer.

173 comments ↓

#1 Guy in Calgary on 10.03.18 at 5:29 pm

Who cares about housing crashes, increasing rates and a household debt crisis. You failed to mention the biggest boon of all:

The 20cm of snow that fell here yesterday :(

#2 Dr. Watson on 10.03.18 at 5:36 pm

Tightening bond market.
USD goes up and USD yield goes up.
Non-reserve, 2nd grade currencies go down and their yields go up higher than the USD.
If USD goes to 4 % CAD goes to 5-6 %.
It is going to hit the fan in 2019, not 2020.
Housing will be the last problem of this economy going forward.

#3 Dusty on 10.03.18 at 5:41 pm

Maybe things will change so much in five years that Garth will be making fun of people who rent in GTA/LM!

#4 Bobs ur uncle on 10.03.18 at 5:43 pm

“Past 2020 it’s really going to hit the fan.”

Couldn’t believe this was an actual quote from a big bank economist, actually speaking some truth. Would love to hear what they are telling themselves internally.

Batten down the hatches!

#5 Lawnboy on 10.03.18 at 5:49 pm

@#1. But its a DRY snow!…

#6 yvr_lurker on 10.03.18 at 5:52 pm

It is unfortunate for those who bought at the peak in YVR around 2 years ago, but for the long-term viability of this city for the next generation prices did need to come down to more reflect local salaries. It will never be the case that an average wage will buy you a SFH in Kitsilano, but when this wage will only buy a condo in Chilliwack we have a problem. Ditto if a dual income high-tech couple with 300K/ year income can only afford an 850sq condo close to downtown. I am happy at the direction things are now going, and it took the NDP and their policies to push the market over the edge…. We still have a long way to go to let more air out of the balloon…..

#7 Tedfiftyfour on 10.03.18 at 5:52 pm

Ya but, ya but, ya but it’s maybe different this time. Ya think? Maaby!

#8 The Real Mark on 10.03.18 at 5:53 pm

Guess the credit to the dominant-in-the-market landlord families has been exhausted. No longer can they purchase a 31th property to establish a fake higher reference valuation for their 30 other properties in the GTA/GVR. This is the logical consequence of negative cashflow and a lack of appreciation in the post-2013 era.

Foreclosures, logically, will surge shortly. Interbank stress is at significant levels between Canada’s major banks. The Bank of Canada governor fortunately has lots of leeway in terms of retaining policy rates at current levels or even lowering them at the next meeting, but may not appreciate the gravity of the situation.

If Millennials are broke, it logically follows that house prices will need to fall to such an extent that Millennials will be able to afford them. Which means that, either directly or indirectly, enormous amounts of wealth, both of RE owners, and that of the people who bought GICs to fund the whole mess, is apt to go up in smoke. The impending legalization of marihuana is just a sideshow, another sort of smoke, that political leaders hope will serve as a distraction.

#9 Jungle on 10.03.18 at 5:56 pm

Toronto and most of GTA still showing 1-3 MOI for condo and detach. You won’t see any folding with that, and perhaps explain why the average price is up form last month.

#10 Brian Ripley on 10.03.18 at 6:00 pm

…70% of Mills “are worried about their financial future” compared to ‘just’ 48.5% of everybody else. Worse, only a third of the kids say they can pay their monthly bills. So is that a revenue problem, or a spending one?. … Garth

Older people (boomers), both men and women, both full and part time, continue to work later in life.

So it’s not surprising that millennials worry about their financial futures. The solution for them is to have or acquire specialized skills that cannot be easily automated.

The other skill they need is patience because a great transfer of real estate wealth is just beginning to occur as boomer real estate goes to auction.

I have updated my earnings charts
http://www.chpc.biz/earnings-employment.html

IN THE LAST 10 YEARS
AVERAGE
SFD Prices are up:​
112% in Vancouver
23% in Calgary
120% in Toronto
WHILE
Employment Earnings are up:
23% in British Columbia
28% in Alberta
25% in Ontario​​

#11 Smith on 10.03.18 at 6:09 pm

Anyone check out the bond spikes in the US and Canada today? Best case scenario is an orderly price decline in the GTA and GVRD. Worse case scenario is a wave of defaults and foreclosures.

Who is going to buy all these pre-sale assignments?

#12 David Chin on 10.03.18 at 6:09 pm

I live in Coquitlam, British Columbia. I laugh at the amounts that some people are trying to sell their houses for. Most decent houses are over $2 million. In COQUITLAM! They could all cut their asking prices 50% and they will still not be good deals.

#13 MF on 10.03.18 at 6:16 pm

“Worse, only a third of the kids say they can pay their monthly bills. So is that a revenue problem, or a spending one?”

-It’s probably both. Rents are a joke here in the GTA. 1600.00/month for a one bedroom is considered cheap now. It’s hard to save when you spend 50% of your income right off the bat on housing. That’s before utilities, gas, tax, etc.

I disagree with this idea that we millennials are spending all of our money on frivolous things. Myself, and almost of my friends, are big savers.

Those of us who went into debt to buy houses have seen values increase enough to justify their decision. For those of us who are saving, watching the increase in prices far outstrip our investments and savings was demoralizing. The goal posts kept moving, so I can’t fault any of us for buying

As an aside, the millennials that spend a lot on cars/clothes/vacations are usually living at home with less expenses. There are a lot of those skewing the perception a bit.

MF

#14 Ten Percenter on 10.03.18 at 6:17 pm

Bring on higher rates. Money moves around the globe looking for the highest rates paid on deposits at the click of a mouse.

All my buddies need the % interest money paid on their savings accounts at their bank every month.

Why own a house or a condo that is dropping in value and cost you money to own every month when instead you can sell out and turn the it into a money generating investment ?

https://www.reinisfischer.com/highest-deposit-rates-world-country-2018

#15 Debtslavecreator on 10.03.18 at 6:24 pm

The situation could not have been better established by a designer. Certainly no conspiracy . Corrupt yes, conspiracy no
But over the next 10 years, as the greatest junk debt bubble deflates and along with it the imaginary wealth and gdp, you will have huge and growing numbers of increasingly desperate millenials, retirees, and low-medium skilled workers left broke, unemployed and unable to support themselves
The pool / tax base (does NOT include public sector workers and retirees) will continue to shrink just as health care and pension costs explode and just as the debt servicing grows even more than health care and pension spending
And voila , while we could swing right of centre , it won’t last long and we will certainly elect an extreme radical left wing majority who will try to rob the minority to help pay for those who gambled and lost on housing and eventually the stock market
So boomers , sell to the sucker millenials but don’t stay in the city
Many of these young buyers will be toast by 2021 and within 5-10 years they will, along with growing hordes of elderly retirees, an crazy neo Marxist to get the “rich”
Because it’s “fair” you know

#16 The Wet One on 10.03.18 at 6:26 pm

Well the solution is simple.

Move.

D’uh!

Lotsa places in the country where homes are affordable and you can have the dream.

Honestly.

People have such limited imagination don’t they?

#17 the ryguy on 10.03.18 at 6:27 pm

Whenever I talk to someone divorced they almost always say the same thing..never again.

Ive noticed in the last couple years some people have started saying the same thing with home ownership, never again, its just not worth it.

That is with home prices increasing most places over that same time frame. Can only imagine the ugly thats going to come out of all this.

#18 jojo on 10.03.18 at 6:35 pm

US 10 year 3.181% today
decade long downtrend broken – massive breakout which will cripple most G& economies.

News comin in 2020 as no MSM would ever print a truly true story.

Only after the crash and the muffle wuffs broken crying on street corners as they read Glove and Pravda in April 2020 that bond rates effect mortgages…. and 10 year mortgages break 10%

No worries though – you have Garth
thanks buddy

Denial is not a river in Egypt my mother used to say

#19 Dave on 10.03.18 at 6:36 pm

Price increases have been unprecedented over the last decade, uncharted territory.
Now for the correction, 40% in some markets but the ones that were red hot…even 60% is possible.
Debt Debt Debt = Control
Mission Accomplished by Elite

#20 old millennial on 10.03.18 at 6:36 pm

Re: millennial financial worries

Pretty simple really:

Real wages greater in 1970
Job opportunities greater in 1970
Education cost lower in 1970
Education requirement in 1970 = zero to minimal
2018 Cost of living +300% in real dollars vs 1970

It’s like a bell curve in school, a millennial that is successful in today’s world, would have been extremely successful in 1970.

Cue the boomers….

#21 Dolce Vita on 10.03.18 at 6:42 pm

“Finito.”

It’s just starting.

Wyatt correct about -40% or more with a bounce back. He is using history as a reference point.

Image link below 416 Avg. house prices since the 50’s by a Toronto Realtor that added in a mean price trendline. 3 observations (1989 price fall numbers added in by myself):

1. The higher the peak, the greater the fall.
2. The higher the peak, the more rapid the fall.
3. Fall in prices undershoot the mean and then bounce back, but still negative (Despair Phase of a RE asset).

As I have said: since the 2017 peak was gargantuan, so will be the price drops.

From the image, you can tell where Wyatt got his -40% and -20% numbers from.

https://i.imgur.com/PWtcjL5.jpg

– – – – – – – – –

Good advice Garth, as usual.

#22 jojo on 10.03.18 at 6:46 pm

I’ll never forget Edmonton int he early 80’s

My brother back then bought an entire street from the local bank ( back then mortgages were onthe local managers head) They sold for 90K 6 months before. He bought the shole street of spanking new contractor houses that had foreclosed for 18K each. The bank even wrote the mortgages at cost to get them off the books.

Middle finger Trudope had just brought in the NEP. Fort MAC closed in a week. We couldn’t buy a new car anywhere in Edmonton 4 weeks later as most dealerships shut down. Had to go to Red Deer.

A bunch of my buddies and I bought golf resort condos in Florida in late 2009 for practically nothing.

I am locked an loaded for those Vancouver and Toronto condos to do the same.

Sicne few have ever been through this, it is truly terrifying for those who get caught in it…

It is party time for those who listen to history…

Don’t have sympathy for morons who bought anything at any price to spec a few hundred grand.

They gambled with their greed

#23 The Real Mark on 10.03.18 at 6:46 pm

“#14 Ten Percenter on 10.03.18 at 6:17 pm
Bring on higher rates. Money moves around the globe looking for the highest rates paid on deposits at the click of a mouse.”

The rate of interest is *not* the return an investor receives on their money. Money does not just blindly chase the highest rate currencies. Monetary stability is far more important. Better to get 0% in a currency that appreciates in value, than 5% in a currency that loses 5%/year in value. Especially with the structure of our tax system which applies full marginal rates nominal interest coupons.

BTW, the word ‘deposit’ is really a misnomer in the modern banking system. More properly, when a person takes money to a bank, whether in Canada or elsewhere, they’re making an unsecured loan to the bank. The bank is a counterparty, not a trustee. Unfortunately the old-fashioned terminology has hung around, and for obvious self-serving reasons, the banks and the media they control go out of their way to foment the allusion of stability. But it logically follows that at some point in the cycle, there will be failure.

#24 Correction... on 10.03.18 at 7:00 pm

Lackeys

#25 How you make it in Vancouver on 10.03.18 at 7:07 pm

American authorities say the chief executive of a Vancouver-area company has pleaded guilty to aiding narcotics traffickers around the world by providing encrypted communications devices designed to thwart law enforcement.

The officials say they also used digital currencies, including Bitcoin, to facilitate financial transactions for Phantom Secure to protect users’ identity and to launder criminal proceeds into real estate.

#26 Bob on 10.03.18 at 7:08 pm

“Lotsa places in the country where homes are affordable and you can have the dream.

Honestly.

People have such limited imagination don’t they?”

Garth has peddled that canard before. Firstly, most people do not have the option of moving to the back of the beyond. Secondly, affordable compared to what? If you compare house prices to local household income (zoocasa is a good site for this), you’ll see that houses are severely unaffordable pretty much everywhere in this country.

#27 Dolce Vita on 10.03.18 at 7:09 pm

Forgot to comment using the chart from my prior post about the 416 price drops to come.

If you look at the mean price line to 2016, a drop back to the mean price = -30%. ([725-500]/725)

But, historically the drop undershoots the mean by half as much again, so the price drop at the bottom = -50%. ([40-26]/26) The Despair Phase.

I agree with:

#2 Dr. Watson

that our interest rates will be much higher next year than predicted as of late.

THAT will push price drops even steeper than the above which is based on history.

As I said many times, it begins in earnest this quarter and by the end of 1st Qtr 2019 price drops in -50% territory.

2019 will be recorded as the largest residential RE asset devaluation in Cdn. history (in $ and %).

Good advice Garth for the Boomers to cash in now and the kids to hang in there until 2019.

#28 Smith on 10.03.18 at 7:13 pm

“Foreclosures, logically, will surge shortly. Interbank stress is at significant levels between Canada’s major banks. The Bank of Canada governor fortunately has lots of leeway in terms of retaining policy rates at current levels or even lowering them at the next meeting, but may not appreciate the gravity of the situation.”

———–

@The Real Mark.

Sorry not sure I agree with the premise that the BOC will lower the lending rate to support he GTA or the GVRD. Its been well established that there is no real housing bubble in the rest of Canada. If the BOC lowers rates while the US FED raises we will end up with the Canadian peso.

Furthermore, I would encourage you to learn about how banks lend money. If you believe that they are restricted to lending out what they have in bank deposits you are mistaken. The big banks create money out of thin air when they give you a mortgage. This is what causes real asset inflation.

Nevertheless, I do agree that foreclosures are a high probability

#29 NoName on 10.03.18 at 7:15 pm

#150 A J on 10.03.18 at 3:19 pm
#123 NoName

I’m not quite sure if you’re trying to bash Trudeau and the Liberals for their handling of NAFTA, but what you said does the exact opposite. You’re right, they could have crushed us. But they didn’t. Because we stood up for our country and wouldn’t back down. Trudeau and our government deserve admiration and respect for not bowing down to Trump and the US. It could have been WAY worse and they deserve our thanks for the way they handled this whole situation.

—-

I am not bashing anyone, i was was supportive of negotiations as much as working stif can be, and i would support any decision they made, deal no deal. I do But spin that we stood and held line and “won”, plz explain me what exactly did we “win”? sunset claus light?.

of topic but interesting, if you have 5 min to spare
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kVk9a5Jcd1k

#30 Lost...but not leased on 10.03.18 at 7:21 pm

FYI: I still have no idea why my last comment was deleted

Regardless..my financial advisor has me lined up for big tax deduction !

#31 Smartalox on 10.03.18 at 7:22 pm

The coming rise in the cost of money (rising interest rates) will start to put pressure on the speculators and flippers.

Still, despite seeing median prices for detached 15% off values from a year ago in West Van, Richmond and Delta (21% off on Vancouver’s West Side!), there still hasn’t been a corresponding rush of new listings into the market.

When the listings spike, then the market will have really turned. Three months of that, as prices continue to decline, and you’ll see how greed turns to fear.

#32 MOK on 10.03.18 at 7:25 pm

Move to Kelowna.

Where MOI is almost at 10 months supply (7-fold up from last year) and prices are adjusting down.

Factor in the smoke tax (an altered combination of the carbon tax and the sunshine tax when sun used to be present back in the day) and you will only need an annual income of 170k large to afford a typical detached home.

Consider K-towns affordability index of only a few points below that of Victoria (a city that showed up on the UBS report).

Never been a better time to buy in BC.

Go long divorce rate increases in BC along with people taking it out on one another. Not sure what I mean? Come live in Vancouver for a week.

#33 Steven Rowlandson on 10.03.18 at 7:26 pm

“By all measures, Vancouver residential real estate prices are falling,” says local realtor Sam Wyatt.

Be that as it may be the essential truth is that sanity in the market place will not exist before any man jack with any kind of a job can easily and safely buy his first home on one income under the three years pay rule any where in Canada. Prices have much further to fall.

#34 dakkie on 10.03.18 at 7:29 pm

Rising Mortgage Rates Meet Canada’s Housing Bubble

http://www.investmentwatchblog.com/rising-mortgage-rates-meet-canadas-housing-bubble/

#35 Karl on 10.03.18 at 7:30 pm

#16 The Wet One on 10.03.18 at 6:26 pm
Well the solution is simple.

Move.

D’uh!

Lotsa places in the country where homes are affordable and you can have the dream.

Honestly.

People have such limited imagination don’t they.

————————

I would love to cash out of GTA and go somewhere much cheaper. Just need my workplace to move. And no, I can’t find a great job like the one I have anywhere.

#36 WUL on 10.03.18 at 7:31 pm

Boffo oil prices these days with West Texas Intermediate at $76 (U.S.) and rising (for now). The gall fighting this balm is the differential for Western Canada Select (the heavy blend which includes our bitumen) is at $50 (Cdn.).

I’m glad I own a Cowtown SFD. One of the few provident decisions I have made.

M62AB

#37 Whinepegger on 10.03.18 at 7:35 pm

For the majority of Boomers living in the GTA or GVA profits are inevitable. Even if prices are at 2015 levels now that puts them sky-high above purchase price + inflation + LOC. If they paid their homes off in the obligatory 16-20 years and sell now they can look forward to a comfortable retirement. Maybe the 200,000 listings are a good chunk of Boomers catching a price within sight of the peak. Not all of us Boomers read Greater Fool and had advance notice of the peak.

#38 Ange on 10.03.18 at 7:38 pm

Mr Turner,

What about the Montreal market? It’s crazy right now, will it settle down? Just sold my condo and scared I won’t get into the market ever if I don’t buy now.

#39 IHCTD9 on 10.03.18 at 7:43 pm

#13 MF on 10.03.18 at 6:16 pm
“Worse, only a third of the kids say they can pay their monthly bills. So is that a revenue problem, or a spending one?”

-It’s probably both. Rents are a joke here in the GTA. 1600.00/month for a one bedroom is considered cheap now. It’s hard to save when you spend 50% of your income right off the bat on housing. That’s before utilities, gas, tax, etc.

I disagree with this idea that we millennials are spending all of our money on frivolous things. Myself, and almost of my friends, are big savers.

Those of us who went into debt to buy houses have seen values increase enough to justify their decision. For those of us who are saving, watching the increase in prices far outstrip our investments and savings was demoralizing. The goal posts kept moving, so I can’t fault any of us for buying

As an aside, the millennials that spend a lot on cars/clothes/vacations are usually living at home with less expenses. There are a lot of those skewing the perception a bit.

MF
———

You knew I’d be along… :)

That’s big city millennial life pretty much anywhere you go.

But there are options. Choices that can be made at any time, and they can solve all these problems in one fell swoop:

Move somewhere else.

Also, find a well employed Woman and get married, that’s a game changer if well executed. Could also be an A-Bomb, but that’s in your hands.

The mils I work with are mostly married now, some with kids. Just about all of them own sfd’s, nice cars and trucks, atv’s and boats. They all fish, hunt and drink lots of beer. With the wages a young tradesman hubby and government wife can make these days, along with a sub 300k house – they’ve got it made in the shade. Easier than Gen X, WAY easier than the Boomers.

If you take a close look at all these articles detailing the plight of Millennials, it ain’t too hard to see they’re almost always talking about well educated metropolis dwellers.

That’s like talking about the pain poor Dobby the house elf must experience as he continually smacks his head against the wall instead of just telling him to cut it out.

I understand the allure of a big city, but some day you’re going to wake up in your mid 40’s realizing you’ve screwed yourself, and there’s going to be precious little you can do about it. Make sure you do the math carefully…

#40 pay your taxes on 10.03.18 at 7:51 pm

They should have bashed up the bike and tacoed the front wheel to make the photo more believable. Are prices really down that much? The “tony” west side isn’t much of a barometer for the rest of Vancouver but I guess we’ll see.

#8 The Real Mark

“This is the logical consequence of negative cashflow and a lack of appreciation in the post-2013 era”

Please stop with your 2013 bilge. Read the blog entry and you’ll see that even the agent stated 2017 was the high water mark. That such a stubborn individual attained a high level of education beggars belief.

#41 eightlock90 on 10.03.18 at 7:55 pm

Canada epitomizes neoliberal economics. Deregulate everything and let the ‘free market’ sort everything out. Except whenever the free market slows down, Ottawa and the BoC run galloping to the rescue to hold off the next recession.

Now after nearly 20 years of easy monetary and fiscal policy, housing is now so bloated and makes up such a large percentage of GDP, that when this monstrosity ends it will take out the economy with it.

Trudeau will likely get the blame, but it started way before him.

#42 Ex-Cowtown on 10.03.18 at 7:57 pm

Ok, I’m going off-road here, but I’ve had enough of the US Supreme Court circus.

The Democrats created this whole mess in 2013 when Harry Reid decided to poke a stick into the checks and balances that the founders built into their system to attempt to benefit the Democratic Party, Obama and Hillary.

Before Harry Reid came along, it required 60 senators to approve a Supreme Court justice. Harry Reid changed the rules so that Obama could appoint Merrick Garland with only 51. Republicans protested the sandbagging and made sure Garland’s appointment never saw the light of day. The Dem’s knew the change was risky, but gambled on it anyway, thinking that even if Garland lost, it was OK as they’d still get several more kicks at the can to cement a permanent lock on power for themselves, as everyone knew, it was Hillary’s turn and she was certain to win. But she didn’t.

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/01/democrats-trump-cabinet-senate/513782/

Harry Reid’s messing with the Founder’s checks and balances created a fricking mess as a simple majority vote meant that hyper-partisan politics could now invade the Senate. The result is the scorched earth actions of both Democrats and Republicans as the barrier to acting dumb has been effectively removed. With a 60 seat majority, there was little incentive to act in a purely partisan manner as one side always needed the goodwill of the other side to get their pick through. But with only 51? Dumb-assity blossomed as both sides felt that victory was now within reach without having to compromise. Massive, total idiotic move by Harry Reid.

My prediction? Kavanaugh will be confirmed; but just barely. Ruth Bader Ginsburg will retire in a year or two and Trump will appoint Amy Coney Barrett to fill RBG’s seat. Another fight will ensue, but less intense this time. Trump will win this one handily as the Dem’s will have blown their wad on Kavanaugh, been punished at the polls and lost their close minority on the Senate, going from 49 seats to 42. Massive Trump win.

After that? Trump, after taking advantage of the Democrats stupidity and stacking the bench with his picks will slam the door permanently on the Dem’s attempts to do it again. Being the only grown-up in the room, Trump will lobby the Senate to reverse Harry Reid’s mess. Reid was attempting a soft putsch and created instead a stupid hyper-partisan and cynical nominations debacle, guaranteed to screw things up every time. Trump will put a spike in it. Nominations will go back to requiring 60 Senate votes and the hyper partisan politics will decline as the incentive to misbehave will have been removed.

The Founders were smart enough to understand the thirst for naked power as they had just crawled out from under the thumb of a tyrannical king and built a system that defuses that tyranny. Trump’s constitution revering picks on the Supreme Court will ensure that no one like Harry Reid will pervert the system for at least a generation. Simple, eh?

#43 k on 10.03.18 at 8:22 pm

regarding #6 comment yvr lurker The communist premier of BC is a small flea on a big dog. The dog is the natural real estate market. His politically motivated dabbling in taxation and creating a “eat the rich” envy based platform is not what has cooled the market. The market has cooled the market. The market makes sense. The communist premier is an idiot . Remember “Communism is a great idea until you run out of other peoples money “

#44 Bob on 10.03.18 at 8:33 pm

“The Democrats created this whole mess in 2013 when Harry Reid decided to poke a stick into the checks and balances that the founders built into their system to attempt to benefit the Democratic Party, Obama and Hillary.”

That’s a pretty selective reading of history, I must say. You seem to have forgotten that the Democrats made this change after the Republicans repeatedly blocked Obama appointees for no other reason than Obama had appointed them. Furthermore, despite all the sound and fury from McConnell about “damage” to the system, he declined to repair said damage upon regaining a senate majority. It’s hard not to see the Republicans as the villains in that little drama.

#45 Bk on 10.03.18 at 8:44 pm

As much as I want to believe Vancouver prices are down 30% from their high, I would have to disagree. Maybe stuff in the higher range, but cheaper affordable detached homes are getting more expensive. (Asking prices anyway)

Of course that makes sense as rates rise and regs are tightened. It increases competition at the lower end of the market since the middle is now unaffordable. – Garth

#46 Tony on 10.03.18 at 8:47 pm

Re: #2 Dr. Watson on 10.03.18 at 5:36 pm

Everything is based on fabricated data as well as the stock market ruse all leading up to the midterms November 6th.

#47 LP on 10.03.18 at 8:48 pm

#39 IHCTD9 on 10.03.18 at 7:43 pm

I understand the allure of a big city, but some day you’re going to wake up in your mid 40’s realizing you’ve screwed yourself, and there’s going to be precious little you can do about it. Make sure you do the math carefully…
********************************************

I’m getting old now but I can still remember when my late husband and I bought our first house. I thought it was in the back of beyond. My first job out of high school was for an insurance company right at the corner of King and Yonge in Toronto. I don’t think the building is there any longer.
My point, though, is that I LOVED the city. I knew it like the back of my hand and was comfortable wandering any corner of it, which I did frequently from the time I was a teenager. Being broke most of the time, our date nights usually involved walking Yonge Street both sides from Front up to Bloor and back again.
When we moved 50 miles northwest of the city my husband promised that I’d never have to live more than an hour from downtown Toronto.
Fast forward 50 years and I can tell you that I avoid the city, and especially the area where my financial advisor hangs his hat occasionally, like the plague but not because of the people. It’s the noise and the traffic I can’t stand.

F71ON

#48 acdel on 10.03.18 at 8:52 pm

Yeah, I agree that 2019/2020 will be the next 2008/2009 but much worse. Nothing has changed, it has become worse! All an illusion, be smart “Listen to Garth”!

Are you a gambler; if so, good-luck!

#49 reynolds531 on 10.03.18 at 8:57 pm

Garth’s smh moment has arrived in my 60 year old neighborhood in London. The house three doors down went for $100k over asking. Now sits empty four months later.

Speculation?

#50 Chico on 10.03.18 at 8:58 pm

#35 Karl on 10.03.18 at 7:30 pm

#16 The Wet One on 10.03.18 at 6:26 pm
Well the solution is simple.

Move.

D’uh!

Lotsa places in the country where homes are affordable and you can have the dream.

Honestly.

People have such limited imagination don’t they.

————————

I would love to cash out of GTA and go somewhere much cheaper. Just need my workplace to move. And no, I can’t find a great job like the one I have anywhere.

——————————————————

The problem Karl is not that you or someone in your situation can’t move, it’s that they won’t take a real honest look at the option of moving. You may have, you may have not. Most people just jump to some flimsy conclusion without really investigating what is most important to them and what price they’re willing to pay.

My wife and I moved our family of 5 from the Lower Mainland to the east coast 2 1/2 years ago. It’s working out better than I could have imagined for all of us.

Here’s the rub Karl…how would I have known if we didn’t take a calculated risk? Most people can’t stomach the risk. Most people don’t spend the necessary energy to really consider the risks and rewards. They just assume it can’t be done because it would be difficult.

Without a doubt…this was one of the best decisions I’ve ever made!

In no small part, thanks to Garth.

#51 Dboy on 10.03.18 at 8:59 pm

In my hood in White Rock, about an hour south of Vancity, homes in excess of 2million have been sitting and sitting for months. Despite being an homeowner of one of these overpriced homes myself, I welcome a correction.

#52 BurlingtonShyster on 10.03.18 at 9:04 pm

Don’t believe a word people…..Burlington prices up 6% year over year

https://www.rahb.ca/press/2018/August/New/BurlingtonTable.PDF

#53 West side Drops on 10.03.18 at 9:05 pm

Friends of mine just bought a beautiful condo in the west side of Vancouver near Arbutus for $200,000 UNDER original asking price. 200K! Not a typo.
Condo prices are dropping.

#54 Lawnboy on 10.03.18 at 9:10 pm

@#42.

“Ok, I’m going off-road here, but I’ve had enough of the US Supreme Court circus.”

Fun fact: The White House is exactly one mile from the Hill, and of course SCOTUS is further yet. BY design.

The architecture , monuments , the mall and museums are fantastic , a great road trip. (rent a bike)

LB

#55 PBrasseur on 10.03.18 at 9:12 pm

Millenials are the stupidest generation to ever walk the crust of earth planet!!!

Fortunately as Mick Jagger used to say time is on their side.

#56 Editrix on 10.03.18 at 9:22 pm

Heck, I live in the east end and it still takes me more than an hour some days on public transit to get to my job in the west end. So Mils, even if you fork over a crap ton of money for a house in the city, if your employer can no longer afford to have an office downtown, you will have an hour commute.

#57 original observer on 10.03.18 at 9:25 pm

If indeed we see the 40% + devaluation, it will be interesting to see the impact it will have on the property taxes which have risen in lockstep with the R/E prices. I don’t understand what the correlation is in a falling market.

#58 yvr_lurker on 10.03.18 at 9:26 pm

# 47 LP

——–
I understand the sentiment completely. I used to love YVR when I was in my 30s and most of my 40s. Loved the film festival, fringe festival, eating out, running through the woods, community events etc…. For me, now in my 50s, the city has lost most of its appeal: intense traffic, no parking downtown or super-expensive meters, a hunger-games competition for skiing on weekends in Cypress or Whistler….. it has all gone down hill. We plan on retiring on one of the Gulf islands (Texada, Galiano, or Salt Spring) where life is more chill, and there is still a sense of community (we have good friends who have moved there….). It is getting to be time to kiss the big city good bye…..

#59 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.03.18 at 9:33 pm

@#47 LP
Interesting reflections of the city “back in the day”.
I was talking to my 88 year old mother the other day and she commented that a friend who grew up on the same road as her family just had her 100th birthday.
She’s still as sharp as a tack. Still physically able to do what ever she wants.
Can remember everything in her 100 years AND debate current events with anyone young or old.

God help the Millenials if a majority of Boomers live that long.
Basement Boomers playing video games……..oh the irony….

#60 Ustabe on 10.03.18 at 9:37 pm

Garth has peddled that canard before. Firstly, most people do not have the option of moving to the back of the beyond. Secondly, affordable compared to what?

The only cultural amenity we lack in my “back of the beyond” is opera. And pro sports.

But my two millennial children both own homes that produce more revenue than mortgage, taxes and insurance costs them, both in nice parts of town too. They both drive paid for automobiles, a full load Maxima and a full load Golf Allroad. Not at all like the poverty spec Audis and BMWs all rusted out I saw all over southern Ontario this past summer. Both are, I guess, middle management at prosperous local businesses.

Haven’t asked me for money ever and Mom says the same. No tattoos, haven’t seen the inside of a police car and no man buns either. But fully loaded TFSAs and a good start on RRSPs now that they earn enough money to make proper use of that.

I have zero idea about what they earn but trust me it is more than enough for out here in the back of the beyond. One is the sole IT guy for local automotive group that has 5 or 6 dealerships plus a couple of RV lots, the other wears multiple hats for a locally owned three outlet business…he looks after HR, training, safety, the warehouse that feeds the retail outlets, etc.

Neither need Metamucil or Xanex to get through a day.
Don’t disparage the back of the beyond…

On another point altogether: you smart folks realize that Mulrony, Ambrose and others associated with conservatism in Canada helped and advised and were integral to the Canadian bargaining team, its positions and its outcome. Or do they no longer count seeing as how conservatism in Canada is now more in line with the near fascist actions of our southern neighbours?

#61 Gravy Train on 10.03.18 at 9:37 pm

#42 Ex-Cowtown on 10.03.18 at 7:57 pm
“Simple, eh?” Yes, you are! :)

#62 Ex-Cowtown on 10.03.18 at 9:42 pm

That’s a pretty selective reading of history, I must say. You seem to have forgotten that the Democrats made this change after the Republicans repeatedly blocked Obama appointees for no other reason than Obama had appointed them. Furthermore, despite all the sound and fury from McConnell about “damage” to the system, he declined to repair said damage upon regaining a senate majority. It’s hard not to see the Republicans as the villains in that little drama.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I said several times that both sides were to blame. If I’m guilty of selective reading, you’ve joined me in sin.

Obama was busy with “a pen and a phone”. He had no interest in following the rules or Constitution and instead used Executive Orders to implement policy. EO’s were designed in horse and buggy days to ensure that the mundane daily work of government could continue, not as a means to circumvent Congress.

Obama was unable to make deals with Congress to implement his plans. Whether Obama’s ideas were good or bad or indifferent is uncertain. What is certain is that he failed to pass legislation, grew frustrated and went into the ditch, trying to skirt around Congress rather than learning how to compromise. But to get pulled out of the ditch, Obama and the Democrats needed a left leaning, constitution ignoring Supreme Court to rule that Obama’s EO’s were legal. Hence the importance of Harry Reid’s Supreme Court gambit. If Hillary would have won, Obama would have succeeded in subverting the legislative process. Soft Putsch 101.

If Obama was truly interested in respecting Congress and the Constitution, he would have taken a page from Bill Clinton’s or Trump’s books and made deals that everyone could live with and use Congress properly to pass his legislation. But Obama chose to try to short-cut everything and it alienated and angered Congress and began a poisoning of the well that Harry Reid’s actions finished.

If Hillary had won, Congress might today be irrelevant, replaced by rule by edict. Kind of like what we have in Canada…….

#63 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.03.18 at 9:44 pm

Totally off subject.

was at the Victoria shipyards today.
Everyone I talked to was shaking their head at Trudeaus announcement about the LNG construction.
“Where the hell are they going to find the qualified trades to do the work?
There is already a HUGE shortage of skilled trades workers ( note to all you able bodied Millenials out there with the wrong degrees and massive student debt….apprenticeship….. “earn while you learn” ) all over BC and even if there is a shut down in the housing/condo construction industry……..

Methinks temporary foreign workers will be filling the gap……..

#64 georgist on 10.03.18 at 9:46 pm

> CREA’s Board of Directors has voted to add sold and historical data to the property listings on Realtor.ca without the need for a login.

https://www.remonline.com/breaking-sold-data-coming-to-realtor-ca/

It’s going to get easier to see big drops.

#65 georgist on 10.03.18 at 9:47 pm

> What about the Montreal market? It’s crazy right now, will it settle down? Just sold my condo and scared I won’t get into the market ever if I don’t buy now.

This makes zero sense. Realtor.

I just exited the market and I’m scared I can’t enter the market. Sure thing.

#66 Ten Percenter on 10.03.18 at 9:54 pm

Bring on Higher Interest Rates

Higher rates mean slower markets and lower prices.

Realtors hate it when they have to chip in some of their commission and work hard to get a sale.

They also hate when they have to justify what they charge for their services.

Do yourself a favour – Sell your house yourself. Hire a lawyer to write up the deal and do the transfer, secure the funds etc.

You will save a ton of your own equity money $$$.
KA-CHING!

#67 genbizx on 10.03.18 at 10:04 pm

Wait it out mills…stop listening to parents who hit the house jackpot through no real effort of their own…prices can only outpace income and money supply for so long…and please tell me u won’t vote again for a guy who thinks it’s ok for a child killer to go to a “lodge” …that child had no second chance and her parents have to live with the horror…disgusting lack of justice

#68 HelpMeImAStudent on 10.03.18 at 10:09 pm

I’m so sorry Garth, I’ve shown this blog to all my fellow Uni-student colleagues

:(

#69 dzh on 10.03.18 at 10:14 pm

#44 Bob – “You seem to have forgotten that the Democrats made this change after the Republicans repeatedly blocked Obama appointees for no other reason than Obama had appointed them. ”
_________________________________

Who’d the GOP block again that required the simple majority? Seems to me plenty of them voted for Sotomayor and Kagan. The Garland nomination happened when GOP held Senate, so your logic does not obtain.

The selective reading of history seems to be yours, friend.

References (so you can count the votes and GOP cross-aisle voters):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sonia_Sotomayor_Supreme_Court_nomination#Senate_votes

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elena_Kagan_Supreme_Court_nomination#Senate_votes)

#70 IHCTD9 on 10.03.18 at 10:17 pm

#47 LP on 10.03.18 at 8:48 pm
#39 IHCTD9 on 10.03.18 at 7:43 pm

I understand the allure of a big city, but some day you’re going to wake up in your mid 40’s realizing you’ve screwed yourself, and there’s going to be precious little you can do about it. Make sure you do the math carefully…
********************************************

I’m getting old now but I can still remember when my late husband and I bought our first house. I thought it was in the back of beyond. My first job out of high school was for an insurance company right at the corner of King and Yonge in Toronto. I don’t think the building is there any longer.
My point, though, is that I LOVED the city. I knew it like the back of my hand and was comfortable wandering any corner of it, which I did frequently from the time I was a teenager. Being broke most of the time, our date nights usually involved walking Yonge Street both sides from Front up to Bloor and back again.
When we moved 50 miles northwest of the city my husband promised that I’d never have to live more than an hour from downtown Toronto.
Fast forward 50 years and I can tell you that I avoid the city, and especially the area where my financial advisor hangs his hat occasionally, like the plague but not because of the people. It’s the noise and the traffic I can’t stand.

F71ON
———-

I can especially understand Women enjoying a big city. Something about hunting and fishing out in the backwaters of rural Ontario seems to not appeal.

Ms. IHCTD9 knows it’ll never happen, but she would not hesitate to move to Toronto, or near it these days. That would not have been the case when we first started out however.

I like the sound of those walking date nights with your late hubby. These days the kids sit at a table together staring at their phones.

#71 bingblingblong on 10.03.18 at 10:18 pm

How much ended up in Vancouver real estate?

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/x-men-actress-fan-bingbing-resurfaces-disappearance-face-130-million-tax-fine-134045892.html

#72 The Real Mark on 10.03.18 at 10:21 pm

#28 Smith on 10.03.18 at 7:13 pm
Furthermore, I would encourage you to learn about how banks lend money.

I already know how the banks lend money. My mom taught me almost 10 years ago. When I move out of her basement I’m going to have a lot of money as a down payment on a brand new bungalow in Saskatoon!

#73 Leo Trollstoy on 10.03.18 at 10:25 pm

I feel bad for millennials

Who am I kidding. No I don’t

Lol

#MAGA!

#74 The Real Mark on 10.03.18 at 10:31 pm

“Where the hell are they going to find the qualified trades to do the work?”

Whomever made that comment obviously has forgotten about the large numbers of people who formerly were engineering and constructing oilsands projects who have been unemployed or underemployed for the past few years. With the engineering side of things, in particular, peaking in 2011.

And then you have all the tradespeople involved in residential construction who will be scrambling for jobs as the sector slows dramatically going forward.

Pipeliners too. Its not like these people just got up and died after their earlier projects were done.

#75 MF on 10.03.18 at 10:50 pm

Oh my…out for a walk this fine evening in Victoria and encountered a Bayliff scouring the neighbourhood for a vehicle repo. Asked how business is going? Brisk he answers. Banks are one of my clients and we’re up to 120 repos a month. That’s one Bayliff servicing the southern half of Vancouver Island. I believe your warnings, Garth! Too much debt out there and many are a few dollars away…so scary and it’s not Halloween yet!!!

#76 IHCTD9 on 10.03.18 at 11:05 pm

#58 yvr_lurker on 10.03.18 at 9:26 pm
# 47 LP
————

I think with age comes a distaste for headaches and BS. A new kind of math ends up on the chalkboard which factors in the amenities of a big city at a much lesser value than when you were 25.

I’m mid 40’s, and the last vestiges of the hobbies of my youth have largely disappeared. Through my 20’s and 30’s, I was into fast cars and drag racing. My garage was packed with Mustang parts end to end. Eventually, I developed a distaste for the money/time spent, risks taken, and the ever increasing pile of headaches involved with the hobby. My nitrous fed 10 second foxbody was finally legislated off the road through Drive Clean and the Smog Patrol, so I started selling everything. I still have the parted out carcass of that car out in the back 40.

I just lost my mojo for it, and I know I’ll never do it again. The same sentiments are taking hold and affecting my buying decisions (buying good quality, like new stuff instead of cheap used up crap I have to constantly frig with), my thoughts on my house (want smaller, and newer), everything really. I’m just not down for BS or headaches and I’m now happy to spend money to avoid them. I sold, scrapped, and junked pretty much all the things I collected through my 30’s.

As I age, I seem to like reliability, predictability, quality, and security more and more.

#77 waiting on the westcoast on 10.03.18 at 11:11 pm

#40 pay your taxes says… “Please stop with your 2013 bilge. Read the blog entry and you’ll see that even the agent stated 2017 was the high water mark. That such a stubborn individual attained a high level of education beggars belief.” Regarding The Real Mark…

Does it really surprise you that our education system produced Mark? ;-)

#78 CalgaryCarGuy on 10.03.18 at 11:12 pm

Re yesterdays snow in Calgary…20 cms in city was maybe average. Certain areas got 40 cms. I live west of the city in the foothills near Bragg Creek. Last night I measured 16 inches (40.6 cms) and had another 3-4 inches fall overnight. 20 inches is over 50 cms. Biggest one day dump of snow since I moved here five years ago. That’s Calgary….the weather is always changing here and it can surprise you. I don’t mind.

#79 waiting on the westcoast on 10.03.18 at 11:12 pm

Physics doesn’t support the photo… but it is funny!

#80 Bytor the Snow Dog on 10.03.18 at 11:20 pm

#39 IHCTD9 on 10.03.18 at 7:43 pm sez to
#13 MF on 10.03.18 at 6:16 pm:

“You knew I’d be along… :)
That’s big city millennial life pretty much anywhere you go.
But there are options. Choices that can be made at any time, and they can solve all these problems in one fell swoop:
Move somewhere else.
Also, find a well employed Woman and get married, that’s a game changer if well executed. Could also be an A-Bomb, but that’s in your hands.
The mils I work with are mostly married now, some with kids. Just about all of them own sfd’s, nice cars and trucks, atv’s and boats. They all fish, hunt and drink lots of beer. With the wages a young tradesman hubby and government wife can make these days, along with a sub 300k house – they’ve got it made in the shade. Easier than Gen X, WAY easier than the Boomers.
If you take a close look at all these articles detailing the plight of Millennials, it ain’t too hard to see they’re almost always talking about well educated metropolis dwellers.
That’s like talking about the pain poor Dobby the house elf must experience as he continually smacks his head against the wall instead of just telling him to cut it out.
I understand the allure of a big city, but some day you’re going to wake up in your mid 40’s realizing you’ve screwed yourself, and there’s going to be precious little you can do about it. Make sure you do the math carefully…”
————————————–

LOL. “Guys” like MF hunting, fishing, drinking beer, and getting dirt under their fingernails! HA!

Where will he find his skinny jeans and latte shops out in the boonies?

#81 The Real Mark on 10.03.18 at 11:39 pm

“Please stop with your 2013 bilge. Read the blog entry and you’ll see that even the agent stated 2017 was the high water mark. That such a stubborn individual attained a high level of education beggars belief.”

2017 was the peak according to Realtor numbers which appears to be what Garth used. 2013 was the peak when you adjust changes to the sales mix out of the numbers. Coincident with the first time buyers mostly being priced out due to changes to CMHC subprime mortgage insurance.

Obviously the author is free to use whichever of the numbers he wishes to support whatever point he’s trying to make. But 2013 being the high water mark is pretty well known to those who have access to sales-mix adjusted figures (ie: constant quality price per square foot data).

Spreads started expanding accordingly on bank credit in the wake of the 2013 peak which was marked by Flaherty (RIP)’s policy statement, respected even by the Liberals to this day, that the CMHC subprime mortgage insurance program’s expansion would be severely limited and capped. So far, a reasonably successful policy, although even at current (ie: 2013) pricing, it will take many more years of inflation to restore balance between labour prices and housing prices.

#82 The Real Mark on 10.03.18 at 11:45 pm

“@The Real Mark.
Sorry not sure I agree with the premise that the BOC will lower the lending rate to support he GTA or the GVRD.”

They’ll have to lower policy rates to keep the broader economy out of deflation. Of course, once an asset class is in physical overcapacity, such as housing, all the credit in the world can be thrown at it and re-levitation of prices is impossible.

Which means that they’ll most likely blow up a bubble in another asset class.

Furthermore, I would encourage you to learn about how banks lend money. If you believe that they are restricted to lending out what they have in bank deposits you are mistaken. The big banks create money out of thin air when they give you a mortgage. This is what causes real asset inflation.

We’ve had plenty of discussions of this, a bank cannot lend what it cannot first borrow. So the availability of funds is an actual constraint on, and a means of determining the price of credit. Plenty of discussion on this in the past. Banks are merely just highly structured leveraged investors. Most of the time it works, but occasionally there are accidents. Precipitated by bad decision making and macroeconomic policy decisions.

#83 SoggyShorts on 10.04.18 at 12:42 am

#62 Ex-Cowtown on 10.03.18 at 9:42 pm

Obama had no chance with that Congress.
There are literally tapes of Congress admitting that they will block anything Obama wants just to make Dems look bad so that the next president will be a Republican.

I wish Obama had gone on TV and just said “Listen up folks, I want to pass the common-sense background checks that 82% of Americans want, but Congress has made a pledge to not pass anything in order for me to look like a failure”

https://www.politico.com/story/2010/10/the-gops-no-compromise-pledge-044311

#84 Fortune500 on 10.04.18 at 12:55 am

I suspect Doug Ford is going to remove the non-resident buyers tax and that will likely keep the party going a bit longer in the GTA and the rest of Ontario.

We just need to help the last of the boomers cross that finish line with their retirements intact. Then we will let it collapse.

#85 LP on 10.04.18 at 1:19 am

#70 IHCTD9 on 10.03.18 at 10:17 pm
#47 LP on 10.03.18 at 8:48 pm
#39 IHCTD9 on 10.03.18 at 7:43 pm

Funny you should speak of fishing. There was a time when Joe, our kids and I went very often to the pier at Southampton for salmon fishing. In fact, if I searched long enough, I believe there is still a photo of me standing in the fog very early one morning proudly holding up a salmon that I caught and landed all by myself. It was only a comparatively small one, about 15 pounds, but I was thrilled with it all the same. We used to arrive on site around 5 in the morning in order to avoid the bulk of loud, usually drunk, young guys who would crowd the pier and annoy with their antics trying to show off with shouts of “fish on”, only to see them ruin the mouths of the poor fish and then break the line anyways. What a waste of a beautiful creature!

Fishing together was one of the things that he and I enjoyed so much. We would get up very, very early in the morning to drive a couple of hours so as to watch the sun come up behind us. And in the winter, our Saturday mornings were often spent eating breakfast in front of the television watching fishing shows. When he was self-employed and working at home and I was still working in Guelph, often I would arrive home on a Friday afternoon to find that he’d cleaned the house, made a picnic supper and packed the car. He’d wrap his arms around me and whisper, “Go get changed; we’re going fishing.” I miss those days.

But my fishing rod is still on the back deck of the car and the tackle is in the trunk. This weekend my kids and I are driving north to Algonquin to scatter my husband’s ashes on Lake Opeongo. One day I’ll join him there.

F71ON

#86 Buy? Curious? on 10.04.18 at 1:25 am

Boomers! Don’t let Garth scare you. You’re smarter. Just stay where you are. A home is a man’s castle. Whoops, I mean a “person’s” castle. Spend your kids inheritance, drink alcohol and enjoy life! You are the greatest generation in the history of Peoplekind.

#87 Fun By the Sea on 10.04.18 at 1:33 am

And we’re “relisted”. Another 25K off the asking.

From the June listing date at 1.675 we have gone to 1.375. Waterfront, Saanich. Assessed is 1.25.

The melt is on in Victoria and environs for anything over 1.0m. Why buy now when you can buy in six months at 30% off?

#88 TalkingPie on 10.04.18 at 1:44 am

Life for us millennials isn’t so bad if we make it out of the wrong cities and luck into the right jobs combined with a rudimentary level of logic and financial discipline.

I worked 12 days last month in a job that requires no post-secondary education. This month I’ll have about 3 weeks paid vacation. I own two cars – a 3 year-old economy car with more bells and whistles than a Rolls-Royce had 15 years ago, and a 20 year-old convertible that I set up to be fun on the race track. My house is about 2,500 sq ft on a 25,000 sq ft lot whose ownership I share with a cute, frugal, well-educated 27 year-old who makes less than I do. She has her own 3 year-old car, and works from home. We still have empty rooms despite using one of them for her office, which she works out of full-time. Current goal is a 25% net savings rate. That should be sufficient, provided that my 60% DB pension kicks in at 55 years-old like it should. I drive to work, on average, 2-3 times a week at most, 35 minutes each way. If we want culture, socialization, and overpriced restaurants and bars, the country’s second largest city is a 45 minute drive away.

If I’m honest, I’m lazier than I should be, and spend a good portion of my time watching Netflix and reading online, although I’m making some strides on getting the landscaping of the house up to date, and I do my own maintenance on my cars. The doomers who complain about what a wasteland Canada is don’t register with me; every day I wake up feeling lucky that life is as great and easy as it is, and I haven’t even started collecting on any of the money my parents have accumulated yet. I completed a business degree in my spare time, but I don’t really see it furthering my career. At least it was something enriching to do. On Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, my biggest problem is definitely on the self-actualization level. I’ll work on that when I take a company-funded flight to New Orleans, Miami, Barbados, or wherever I decide to go with my girlfriend next week.

#89 Smoking Man on 10.04.18 at 1:50 am

Globalist Davos CEO’s, I give you your future employees. Hope your share holders stay sleeping for your sake. But who knows what clip will wake em up. This one maybe.

A woman’s rights crusader kicks a woman in the head. Liberalism is a mental disorder.

It’s not progress, it’s insanity.

Dr. Smoking Man
PhD. Herdonomics.

https://youtu.be/z7SqtIe5rZQ

#90 Smoking Man on 10.04.18 at 1:57 am

MY WIFE is from Glasgow.

I figured it out. Where did my glass go?

Beauty drunks. I should have an honorary membership.

#91 Fortune500 on 10.04.18 at 6:05 am

So Realtor.ca will now show sold data and other historical information without the need to log in. This will really be a game changer:

https://www.remonline.com/breaking-sold-data-coming-to-realtor-ca/?utm_source=REM+Inbox+Update&utm_campaign=8d2a24c7af-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_10_03_08_21&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_3f4c7c7b65-8d2a24c7af-61545497

#92 dharma bum on 10.04.18 at 6:32 am

#38 Ange

What about the Montreal market? It’s crazy right now, will it settle down? Just sold my condo and scared I won’t get into the market ever if I don’t buy now.
——————————————————————–

Montreal is a good place to leave.

That’s not a typo.

#93 Karl on 10.04.18 at 6:45 am

#50 Chico on 10.03.18 at 8:58 pm
#35 Karl on 10.03.18 at 7:30 pm

#16 The Wet One on 10.03.18 at 6:26 pm
Well the solution is simple.

Move.

D’uh!

Lotsa places in the country where homes are affordable and you can have the dream.

Honestly.

People have such limited imagination don’t they.

————————

I would love to cash out of GTA and go somewhere much cheaper. Just need my workplace to move. And no, I can’t find a great job like the one I have anywhere.

——————————————————

The problem Karl is not that you or someone in your situation can’t move, it’s that they won’t take a real honest look at the option of moving. You may have, you may have not. Most people just jump to some flimsy conclusion without really investigating what is most important to them and what price they’re willing to pay.

My wife and I moved our family of 5 from the Lower Mainland to the east coast 2 1/2 years ago. It’s working out better than I could have imagined for all of us.

Here’s the rub Karl…how would I have known if we didn’t take a calculated risk? Most people can’t stomach the risk. Most people don’t spend the necessary energy to really consider the risks and rewards. They just assume it can’t be done because it would be difficult.

Without a doubt…this was one of the best decisions I’ve ever made!

In no small part, thanks to Garth.

—————————————-

I love the East Coast!

While I understand the world does not revolve around GTA, mine kinda does. I have 15 years in my job, great seniority, great pay (even for GTA), and a great DB pension. Family as well.

Risking that for a little bit of an easier ride on housing cost isn’t worth it. I am not floundering in GTA by any means, but cashing out and moving East would be a cash boon of course.

#94 Howard on 10.04.18 at 6:46 am

#60 Ustabe on 10.03.18 at 9:37 pm

On another point altogether: you smart folks realize that Mulrony, Ambrose and others associated with conservatism in Canada helped and advised and were integral to the Canadian bargaining team, its positions and its outcome. Or do they no longer count seeing as how conservatism in Canada is now more in line with the near fascist actions of our southern neighbours?

—————————————

You don’t know what fascism means.

Take your meds and read a dictionary or an encyclopaedia.

#95 Howard on 10.04.18 at 6:52 am

#20 old millennial on 10.03.18 at 6:36 pm

Re: millennial financial worries

Pretty simple really:

Real wages greater in 1970
Job opportunities greater in 1970
Education cost lower in 1970
Education requirement in 1970 = zero to minimal
2018 Cost of living +300% in real dollars vs 1970

It’s like a bell curve in school, a millennial that is successful in today’s world, would have been extremely successful in 1970.

Cue the boomers….

———————————————–

It has always astounded me how so many of the Boomer directors I’ve had to work with over the years are blithering idiots. Overpaid imbeciles. Not all, but a fair number.

There are idiots in every generation of course. The difference is that Millennial idiots will be stuck working at Starbucks or McDonalds for life. Boomer idiots, due to the factors you listed, effortlessly made it to C-Suite while they lord over junior level Millennials with twice their IQ.

You may have had a point until the ‘twice the IQ’ remark. Now you’re just an entitled prick. – Garth

#96 Antisocial social club on 10.04.18 at 7:10 am

Just returned from Portugal, what incredible cities Lisbon and Porto are. Left me with an urge for a winter get away home. Do any bloggers own winter homes and if so what is your experience of doing so? Is it worthwhile or is just renting and keeping money invested better? As I near retirement in less than 2 years I can’t imagine spending all winter in Canada. Any experience or views on the matter would be welcome.

#97 Wrk.dover on 10.04.18 at 7:48 am

#76 IHCTD9 on 10.03.18 at 11:05 pm

Flogging a brick shaped horse with a boat anchor for an engine would be frustrating when the Chevy’s show up.

No wonder you quit!

#98 John Kenneth Galbraith on 10.04.18 at 8:01 am

Ford’s PC government is going to scrap the minimum wage hikes. The war on poverty has been won!

The poor have been defeated!!

https://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/premier-doug-ford-vows-to-scrap-key-liberal-labour-reform-legislation

#99 NoName on 10.04.18 at 8:03 am

@MF

The mils I work with are mostly married now, some with kids. Just about all of them own sfd’s, nice cars and trucks, atv’s and boats. They all fish, hunt and drink lots of beer. With the wages a young tradesman hubby and government wife can make these days, along with a sub 300k house

You jst described me and my wife right there, and we cant afford trucks, atv’s and boats and get enough free time to fish and hunt…
Unless they are milking house, equity and grandparents are babysitting kids something’s fishy there.
As someone sed working is expensive, and i 100% agree with that.

#100 Andrewt on 10.04.18 at 8:17 am

#42 Ex-Cowtown on 10.03.18 at 7:57 pm
Ok, I’m going off-road here, but I’ve had enough of the US Supreme Court circus.

The Democrats created this whole mess in 2013 when Harry Reid decided to poke a stick into the checks and balances

——
Just need to clear up an important detail: while the Democrats removed the filibuster on most judicial appointments, the filibuster on Supreme Court nominees was only removed by Mitch McConnell last year during the Gorsuch confirmation.
In terms of who started the unyielding obstructionism and breakdown of bipartisanship- that can most likely be traced back to Newt Gingrich’s Republican house caucus in the mid 90’s.

#101 Ian on 10.04.18 at 8:18 am

I just love the bank economists! ‘Things will really hit the fan in 2020’

Right, because things haven’t really been hitting the fan this year. They should really read this blog.

The fallout from a 21 year GTA bull market is only kicking off even though we are only 1.5 years into the bear (or 6.5 in Mark years). The fun is only beginning.

I can’t wait to see how the CP24 – Realtor – Harold The Mortgage Lender fake news industrial complex explains things in 2019, never mind 2020.

Now we will have the nightmare scenario of both bonds and the stock market selling off. Yields are out of control the last 24 hours. More fun ahead today!

#102 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.04.18 at 8:54 am

@#71 BingBingBroke

I guess BingBing might be regretting her decision to critisize the Chinese govt for its ruthless policies in Tibet?

Her weeks long “disappearance” was more than likely a “re-education” in a prison cell.
And the $130 million tax “fine” more than likely a get out of jail card.
She’s lucky she’s a “crazy rich” famous movie star in China….most political demonstrators over there end up rotting in prison for a few years……

#103 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.04.18 at 9:00 am

@#74 The REAL Mark
“Whomever made that comment obviously has forgotten about the large numbers of people who formerly were engineering and constructing oilsands projects who have been unemployed or underemployed for the past few years”
+++++

The ravings of an uninformed idiot.

I have seen many many Alberta license plates at jobsites in BC over the past 5 years.
Many more are working on the Site C dam in Northern BC.
OBVIOUSLY the trades have moved west to where the work is.
There is STILL A MASSIVE TRADES SHORTAGE.
Oh, and we done need more “wet behind the ears” just out of uni “engineers” that dont know shit telling us how to fix their design “f-ups”.
If you want to get a real job Mark and move out of Mom’s basement….get an apprenticeship and a job…..before they are all taken by temporary foriegn workers.

#104 KLNR on 10.04.18 at 9:01 am

@#94 Howard on 10.04.18 at 6:46 am
#60 Ustabe on 10.03.18 at 9:37 pm

On another point altogether: you smart folks realize that Mulrony, Ambrose and others associated with conservatism in Canada helped and advised and were integral to the Canadian bargaining team, its positions and its outcome. Or do they no longer count seeing as how conservatism in Canada is now more in line with the near fascist actions of our southern neighbours?

—————————————

You don’t know what fascism means.

Take your meds and read a dictionary or an encyclopaedia.
____________________

LOL, 99% of the folks on here have no clue what fascism, socialism, communism actually mean.
Those terms are so abused and misused.

#105 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.04.18 at 9:11 am

@#94 Howard
“It has always astounded me how so many of the Boomer directors I’ve had to work with over the years are blithering idiots. Overpaid imbeciles. Not all, but a fair number.
There are idiots in every generation of course. The difference is that Millennial idiots will be stuck working at Starbucks or McDonalds for life.
+++++

It must be truly painful suffering through day to day barrista service listening to the inane conversations Boomer bosses have.
Not to worry.
Eventually they will retire and Starbucks Manager will be yours……
Then you’ll be the blithering idiot all the younger , smarter, university educated, indebted barristas bitch about.

#106 cya on 10.04.18 at 9:23 am

I have a neighbour who is out of work, wife minimum wage job, rent out basement, completely house poor, paycheck to paycheck. Looking forward to a nice correction as it realigns the stars and forces the ‘should nots’ to live within their means. cya

#107 Dr. Watson on 10.04.18 at 9:32 am

10 years US Treasuries at 3.19 % already.

Word is, tomorrow’s job report will add 500 k to the US economy.

Overheated job market, inflation, rates going up, mortgages going up.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-10-04/why-traders-are-whsipering-about-500000-jobs-print-tomorrow

#108 Ian on 10.04.18 at 9:56 am

PredictIt seems to think Kavanaugh’s got it:

https://www.predictit.org/Browse/Group/39

FBI report the wildcard.

#109 Spectacle on 10.04.18 at 9:59 am

Regarding this posting::
#96 Antisocial social club on 10.04.18 at 7:10 am
Just returned from Portugal, what incredible cities Lisbon and Porto are. Left me with an urge for a winter get away home. Do any bloggers own winter homes and if so what is your experience of doing so? Is it worthwhile or is just renting and keeping money invested better? As I near retirement in less than 2 years I can’t imagine spending all winter in Canada. Any experience or views on the matter would be welcome.
———————(.)——————

Really giving this one thought last few years.

According to the financial Rules of Thought gleamed from Garths blog, important to bring in the financial along with life implications , to answer your question.

Plenty of Rules to guide you.
1) like the Five “F’s” of Life.
Food,
Friends/family,
*Finances ( Yay Garth),
Fitness/health,
and Sex.

or 2) The “3 legged Stool” required to keep that perch up. The simplest chair or stool requires 3 Legs. A 2 legged chair/stool doesn’t work well. If one of those 3 legs goes missing, either of
1) Health,
2) Financial ( Thanks again, you Go Garth…)
and 3) Family support ( friendships).

Imagine your “financial” situation , or your “Health” changes while you have relocated to an investment in a place removed from your Family support network. The other 2 essential , but overworked, components of your Personal Perch are now overstrained.

The journey of finding that ” Place ” out of the Canadian cold, is what it’s about. Lucky you to be able to get out and explore the World. Happiest multi-millionaires Inknow personally have sold off their big ticket stuff, and engage in meaningful work and family. Healthy lifestyle ( no smoking, not much in booze etc) is a close but essential 3rd place.

Spend a month doing the Louvre in Paris,
Cuba, home stay…
Be a part of the elephant rescue in Asia (yes, Elephants Paint!). Will blow your mind into Elon Musk territory.

And let us know what you are doing about Agenda 30. The biggest 4th essential! Do something that matters, gives meaning to the world.

#110 Ubul on 10.04.18 at 10:02 am

IMF, Gartman, JP Morgan, Peter Shiff, Putin, US crude oil carriers are all worried about some aspect of the economy this morning. On top of that it turns out that China has compromised servers at the CIA, Dod and 30+ US companies, including Apple and Amazon.

Check your seat-belts.

#111 russell on 10.04.18 at 10:06 am

Thing is mills are far more aware of the geo-political shit storm happening world-widen than young people of a generation past. Currency wars and trade wars historically always lead to shooting wars. Buying a house is one concern, having a job that pays enough to even plan a future is another, that is the broader picture.

Yes, you are so well informed on macroeconomic events by Instagram. – Garth

#112 millmech on 10.04.18 at 10:16 am

#99
Young HD mechanic at our plant clears 2800/biweekly, his GF who is an electrician clears 3200/biweekly, they rent a house in Chilliwack for 1k/mth and making bank of over 5k a month.
Watch trades rates go even higher with the new LNG plant and bridge construction coming up here in lower mainland pulling guys out of plants to work on the projects.
Highest trade rate for industrial trades I have seen posted is $55/hr in North Van.
I do not understand how millennials complain about not getting ahead when there are so many jobs out there paying 100k+ right out of school, with signing bonuses now too!

#113 young & foolish on 10.04.18 at 10:21 am

Higher rates will be a game changer … but not only for RE values. Equity markets will also take a hit (since they too have been egged on by cheap money).

Foolish comment. Higher rates come from enhanced economic growth, inflation and wage gains. All excellent for corporate profits. – Garth

#114 n1tro on 10.04.18 at 10:35 am

#95 Howard on 10.04.18 at 6:52 am
———————————————–

It has always astounded me how so many of the Boomer directors I’ve had to work with over the years are blithering idiots. Overpaid imbeciles. Not all, but a fair number.

There are idiots in every generation of course. The difference is that Millennial idiots will be stuck working at Starbucks or McDonalds for life. Boomer idiots, due to the factors you listed, effortlessly made it to C-Suite while they lord over junior level Millennials with twice their IQ.
——————————-
Have you seen the profiles of managers/directors in Linkedin now? Lots of millennial “directors” with a whopping 3-4 years experience at doing something low level or irrelevant to what is required of the job.

Examples from my own career are:

Canada largest grocery chain – couple of co-ops that were hired when I was a SFA are now VPs. Vice Presidents! Only work experience came from co-op terms.

Canada/US biggest SaaS healthcare platform – I came in and made them $50M/yr after 4.5 yrs. Everyone above me were patting themselves on the back on how great they were. Thoughts of IPO were in the works.
When I left, as a measure to sustain and increase what I did to get a fat IPO price, they made a millennial who didn’t finish college but had been with the company near the beginning a Senior Director of Operations! 2 years have passed and no IPO and they are struggling to maintain the revenue recognition after having doubled the project/support team.

Largest(?) MGA in Canada – a millennial who started out as a file clerk is now VP of Ontario region. Only work experience is with the MGA.

Current Company – a millennial who went to college for marketing, jumps around jobs after graduating as a Admin Assistant and lands a job as (shockingly!) an Admin Assistant but then after 6 months is now Marketing Manager.

And you wonder why some good companies go down the toilet. A bunch of idiots running the show with no experience is nothing new.

#115 millmech on 10.04.18 at 10:44 am

#107
Good times for savers and those on fixed incomes coming, the chart is basically straight up now for yield. Watch how often banks raise their rates now, some of the smaller lending institutions raised their special rates 10-15 bps just the other day.

#116 Linda on 10.04.18 at 10:48 am

Comments: ‘one third of Millennials can’t meet their monthlies’; ‘Boomers are working later & longer’; ‘50% of income spent on rent’.

Like other commenters, I think the monthlies is a combination of overspending & high prices. As in rent in the ‘hot’ housing markets, though to be fair decent places to live in cooler housing markets have higher rents as well. The Boomers working later/longer? Same thing – overspending, high prices, have no savings or inadequate savings, have no workplace pension etc. Millennials at least have decades to accumulate. Boomers who have not already built up a nest egg, not so much. In fact, they will likely work until they can’t because that is their only option.

Millennials who are spending 50% of their income on rent are getting a taste of what life will be like if they don’t save or build a nest egg. Talk about incentive to succeed. Any time you want to slack off, think about having to make ends meet when you are a wrinkly. Not a happy prospect, so do what it takes to ensure you won’t be in that position later in life.

#117 Uncle Al Sinclair on 10.04.18 at 10:50 am

#101 Ian

“I can’t wait to see how the CP24 – Realtor – Harold The Mortgage Lender fake news industrial complex explains things in 2019, never mind 2020.”

You are such a pessimist Ian! Buy now cowboy before you get shut out of the market and rent for the rest of your days! Real estate only goes one way as the late great Jackie Gleason would say, “to the moon Alice!”

http://alsinclair.com/our-cp24-hot-property-show/

#118 IHCTD9 on 10.04.18 at 10:52 am

#85 LP on 10.04.18 at 1:19 am
#70 IHCTD9 on 10.03.18 at 10:17 pm
#47 LP on 10.03.18 at 8:48 pm
#39 IHCTD9 on 10.03.18 at 7:43 pm

But my fishing rod is still on the back deck of the car and the tackle is in the trunk. This weekend my kids and I are driving north to Algonquin to scatter my husband’s ashes on Lake Opeongo. One day I’ll join him there.

F71ON

______

You and Joe sound like my kind of people.

My condolences on his passing, I did not realize it was so recent.

#119 n1tro on 10.04.18 at 10:52 am

#98 John Kenneth Galbraith on 10.04.18 at 8:01 am
Ford’s PC government is going to scrap the minimum wage hikes. The war on poverty has been won!

The poor have been defeated!!

https://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/premier-doug-ford-vows-to-scrap-key-liberal-labour-reform-legislation
———————————
Awesome to hear! SJW agenda has been pushed back a bit longer.

#120 IHCTD9 on 10.04.18 at 10:57 am

#97 Wrk.dover on 10.04.18 at 7:48 am
#76 IHCTD9 on 10.03.18 at 11:05 pm

Flogging a brick shaped horse with a boat anchor for an engine would be frustrating when the Chevy’s show up.

No wonder you quit!
_____

HA!

I never had any problems with those overweight sleds with the glass differentials and spaghetti axles!!

Truth be told – I was a Chevy guy until the 87 Foxbody appeared.

These days I drive a GMC pick up with a 496 BBC under the hood! :).

#121 NoName on 10.04.18 at 11:12 am

Interesting read

Yes, it is that time, tinfoil hat on, and as a goo measure double walled. :)

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/612212/the-first-social-network-of-brains-lets-three-people-transmit-thoughts-to-each-others-heads/

#122 Smoking Man on 10.04.18 at 11:14 am

107 Dr. Watson on 10.04.18 at 9:32 am
10 years US Treasuries at 3.19 % already.

Word is, tomorrow’s job report will add 500 k to the US economy.

Overheated job market, inflation, rates going up, mortgages going up.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-10-04/why-traders-are-whsipering-about-500000-jobs-print-tomorrow
…….

No shit. My inbox regarding my IT skill set. Full.
Trumps America is creating massive job openings and huge wage growth. Supply and demand.

T2s Canada, flood gates wide open for TFW. Zero chance of wage grouth. Just higher rates and high inflation. Did anyone sell their house yet. The shit storm is on the way.

#123 JTH on 10.04.18 at 11:16 am

I am surprised that you haven’t said anything about the latest Vancouver real estate stats.

I realize the following is from Zero Hedge, which gets very little love, but even they can be right every once in a while….

“What happens when prices rise so high that a chasm forms between bids and asks? The market grinds to a halt.

That’s what happened in Vancouver housing in September, when according to the Real Estate Board of Vancouver (REBGV), residential property sales tumbled by 17.3% from August 2018, and a whopping 43.5% from one year ago. In fact, a total of only 1,595 transactions took place as both buyers and sellers continue to sit on their hands amid confusion whether the recent torrid price gains will continue or whether the housing bubble has burst.”

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-10-02/vancouver-home-sales-crash-44-sale-inventory-soars

#124 Hamsterwheelie on 10.04.18 at 11:33 am

Well – end o’ the comments here but I wanted to contribute a wee opinion on moving.
8 years ago we left the big smoke – for a smaller smoke, had low expectations, bought 4 houses which all doubled in value – sold 2, rebuilt one and have a tidy little income plus a lovely place to live.
Different opportunities here because its a different city – no plans to move out to the middle o nowhere as that would dent our freedoms and our pocketbook. (currently walk to all shops, galleries, restos and farmers markets plus plenty of health services nearby)
Building a place and a community you can age comfortably within, with lots to do, is my idea of a great retirement. Maybe we have another move in us, maybe not – either way a big change can often kick start great opportunities and expand your horizons. Do it, if in any way possible.

#125 re-listing hell on 10.04.18 at 11:40 am

saw this from victoria recently – we all know it happens. it’d be good if there was something that could be done about it

https://twitter.com/JamesAddison/status/1047600572898013184

are there any realtor rules or regulations that can get these fellas in a little hot water?

#126 KLNR on 10.04.18 at 11:40 am

@#103 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.04.18 at 9:00 am
@#74 The REAL Mark
“Whomever made that comment obviously has forgotten about the large numbers of people who formerly were engineering and constructing oilsands projects who have been unemployed or underemployed for the past few years”
+++++

The ravings of an uninformed idiot.

I have seen many many Alberta license plates at jobsites in BC over the past 5 years.
Many more are working on the Site C dam in Northern BC.
OBVIOUSLY the trades have moved west to where the work is.
There is STILL A MASSIVE TRADES SHORTAGE.
Oh, and we done need more “wet behind the ears” just out of uni “engineers” that dont know shit telling us how to fix their design “f-ups”.
If you want to get a real job Mark and move out of Mom’s basement….get an apprenticeship and a job…..before they are all taken by temporary foriegn workers.
_________________________

Now, now children.

#127 Howard on 10.04.18 at 11:40 am

#105 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.04.18 at 9:11 am

@#94 Howard
“It has always astounded me how so many of the Boomer directors I’ve had to work with over the years are blithering idiots. Overpaid imbeciles. Not all, but a fair number.
There are idiots in every generation of course. The difference is that Millennial idiots will be stuck working at Starbucks or McDonalds for life.
+++++

It must be truly painful suffering through day to day barrista service listening to the inane conversations Boomer bosses have.
Not to worry.
Eventually they will retire and Starbucks Manager will be yours……
Then you’ll be the blithering idiot all the younger , smarter, university educated, indebted barristas bitch about.

——————————————–

You misunderstood me.

My point was that the proportion of idiots doesn’t change much generation to generation. In the Boomer era, even the idiots did well, for the reasons outlined in post #20. In the Millennial era, the idiots will be working paycheque to paycheque at McD or SB for life.

In that sense there’s perhaps a more brutalist meritocracy today. Perhaps there’s nothing wrong with that, it is what it is, but it was not the case 40 years ago.

And my comment about Boomer bosses referred to C-Suite executives in large companies. Some are brilliant but others….wow. If they were born 40 years later they’d be picking up trash on the highway for minimum wage.

#128 Ex-Cowtown on 10.04.18 at 11:44 am

#100 Andrewt on 10.04.18 at 8:17 am
#42 Ex-Cowtown on 10.03.18 at 7:57 pm
Ok, I’m going off-road here, but I’ve had enough of the US Supreme Court circus.

The Democrats created this whole mess in 2013 when Harry Reid decided to poke a stick into the checks and balances

——
Just need to clear up an important detail: while the Democrats removed the filibuster on most judicial appointments, the filibuster on Supreme Court nominees was only removed by Mitch McConnell last year during the Gorsuch confirmation.
In terms of who started the unyielding obstructionism and breakdown of bipartisanship- that can most likely be traced back to Newt Gingrich’s Republican house caucus in the mid 90’s.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Valid points. The clown train has had many conductors over the years. All share one thing in common though; moving away from the original rules.

#129 Ogopogo on 10.04.18 at 11:56 am

#9 Jungle on 10.03.18 at 5:56 pm
Toronto and most of GTA still showing 1-3 MOI for condo and detach. You won’t see any folding with that, and perhaps explain why the average price is up form last month.

This clown-realtor’s daily bleatings against mathematical evidence are as predictable as my morning meditations on the plastic throne. And just as stinky.

#130 Damifino on 10.04.18 at 11:58 am

#103 crowdedelevatorfartz

I have seen many many Alberta license plates at jobsites in BC over the past 5 years.
——————————-

I think I’d be a bit uneasy driving through Alberta with BC licence plates at this point in Canadian history.

They must be delighted about the Kitimat LNG facility news. Alberta is now the energy-locked backwoods of the country. They must be seriously steamed about it.

#131 IHCTD9 on 10.04.18 at 12:00 pm

#99 NoName on 10.04.18 at 8:03 am
@MF

The mils I work with are mostly married now, some with kids. Just about all of them own sfd’s, nice cars and trucks, atv’s and boats. They all fish, hunt and drink lots of beer. With the wages a young tradesman hubby and government wife can make these days, along with a sub 300k house

You jst described me and my wife right there, and we cant afford trucks, atv’s and boats and get enough free time to fish and hunt…
Unless they are milking house, equity and grandparents are babysitting kids something’s fishy there.
As someone sed working is expensive, and i 100% agree with that.
_____

Two incomes at 110K combined is about 6900.00/mo take home.

One 300K mortgage at 3.5% is 1500.00/mo. This is max – most Mils I know paid 250K or less (200K is 1K/mo. payment)

Balance remaining for everything else 5400.00 – take off 1.4K per month for heat, hydro, food, taxes, insurance etc, and you’re down to 4K surplus or 48K/year.

Nice atv 9K
Nice Truck 20K
Nice boat 6K

All used but mint.

Total – 35K

Paid for in one year with left overs. In reality, these are not all bought simultaneously, or financed in one year making things even easier.

You can home daycare in our area for 6-700.00/head/mo., so it’s a lot less than some of what you hear out there. Maybe it’s day care killing you out your way…

#132 bdwy sktrn on 10.04.18 at 12:01 pm

RE is not the only thing to get hit by rates.

Richly valued equities respond instantly by comparison.

And responding they are. A big leg down is underway.
+1k off the dow from here

i got out last week , feels pretty great.

order ready to re enter at better prices.

#133 IHCTD9 on 10.04.18 at 12:33 pm

#93 Karl on 10.04.18 at 6:45 am

I love the East Coast!

While I understand the world does not revolve around GTA, mine kinda does. I have 15 years in my job, great seniority, great pay (even for GTA), and a great DB pension. Family as well.

Risking that for a little bit of an easier ride on housing cost isn’t worth it. I am not floundering in GTA by any means, but cashing out and moving East would be a cash boon of course.
____________________

Well it sounds like you are “net win” to stay in the GTA then. If you have a great job with a DB, and can still make the mortgage payment you’re ok. I’m not blind to the possibility that for a handful of people, they are better off in the GTA.

However, if you can reap the same lifestyle, and benefits outside the GTA with more left over at the end of the month – regardless of what you get paid – then you have a reason to consider moving.

A good plan for you sounds like doing your time in the GTA, paying off all debts and mortgage – then cashing out to Lunenburg with your RE proceeds and DB.

#134 Ian on 10.04.18 at 12:40 pm

#119

Forget scrapping the minimum wage HIKES…Ford should be scrapping minimum wage altogether. Awful, awful policy.

#135 AB Boxster on 10.04.18 at 12:41 pm

#95 Howard on 10.04.18 at 6:52 am


there are idiots in every generation of course. The difference is that Millennial idiots will be stuck working at Starbucks or McDonalds for life.
Boomer idiots, due to the factors you listed, effortlessly made it to C-Suite while they lord over junior level Millennials with twice their IQ.

——————————————-
Which is exactly where you belong.
Serving fries and lattes.

Touted as the most tech savy and educated generation.

Well, I guess if screwing around on SnapChat or Tinder all day long counts as being tech savy.

Or, that a PHD in lesbian dance theory degree with a minor in transgender self identity, can be considered education .

Good luck with that.

Difference between Millennials and Boomers is that Boomers had a ton of competition from other boomers, had no problem taking entry level jobs and building a career, and then spent the next 40 years working their asses off to become successful.

Millennials all got a ribbon just for participating (look how special we are, just for showing up!) and now think that that is how the real world works.

“What? There is no cushy gov job paying 100K that allows me to research lesbian dance?
It couldn’t be that my ultra left marxist profs are were lying to me. It must be the evil boomers.”

Here’s a hint.
In the real world IQ don’t mean jack shit.

Thank god for Gen -Z.

#136 Ian on 10.04.18 at 12:45 pm

#117 Uncle Al Sinclair

Haha exactly!!! He’s the most honest of them all for sure.

#137 Karl on 10.04.18 at 12:56 pm

#133 IHCTD9 on 10.04.18 at 12:33 pm
#93 Karl on 10.04.18 at 6:45 am

I love the East Coast!

While I understand the world does not revolve around GTA, mine kinda does. I have 15 years in my job, great seniority, great pay (even for GTA), and a great DB pension. Family as well.

Risking that for a little bit of an easier ride on housing cost isn’t worth it. I am not floundering in GTA by any means, but cashing out and moving East would be a cash boon of course.
____________________

Well it sounds like you are “net win” to stay in the GTA then. If you have a great job with a DB, and can still make the mortgage payment you’re ok. I’m not blind to the possibility that for a handful of people, they are better off in the GTA.

However, if you can reap the same lifestyle, and benefits outside the GTA with more left over at the end of the month – regardless of what you get paid – then you have a reason to consider moving.

A good plan for you sounds like doing your time in the GTA, paying off all debts and mortgage – then cashing out to Lunenburg with your RE proceeds and DB.

————————————-

It’s like you are inside my head! You pretty much nailed it. If my work moves location outside of GTA, it would present a great opportunity for me.

#138 Barb on 10.04.18 at 1:03 pm

#130 Damifino on 10.04.18 at 11:58 am
———————————————————
“I think I’d be a bit uneasy driving through Alberta with BC licence plates at this point in Canadian history. ”

A disgusting and divisive comment!
And totally false.

#139 yvrguy on 10.04.18 at 1:04 pm

People love to talk about the bubble… **smirk, giggle giggle** that’s not the message we’re sending…

https://bc.ctvnews.ca/video?clipId=1505583

because we are heartless SHYSTERS who will financially ruin you for profit.

SHYSTERS are worse than FERENGI.

Ferengi Rule of Acquisition #39 – Don’t tell customers more than they need to know.

Ferengi Rule of Acquisition #87 – Learn the customer’s weaknesses, so that you can better take advantage of him.

Ferengi Rule of Acquisition #121 – Everything is for sale, even friendship.

Shall I go on?

#140 n1tro on 10.04.18 at 1:07 pm

#89 Smoking Man on 10.04.18 at 1:50 am
Globalist Davos CEO’s, I give you your future employees. Hope your share holders stay sleeping for your sake. But who knows what clip will wake em up. This one maybe.
A woman’s rights crusader kicks a woman in the head. Liberalism is a mental disorder.
It’s not progress, it’s insanity.
Dr. Smoking Man
PhD. Herdonomics.
https://youtu.be/z7SqtIe5rZQ
—————————————

Justice and closure…
https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/man-who-roundhouse-kicked-pro-life-woman-identified-gets-fired

#141 Sheila Walsh on 10.04.18 at 1:13 pm

Cya, I work 3 part-time jobs, 65 hours a week making between $14.50 to $15.50 an hour.

I bring home $750 a week take home pay. I don’t get overtime and refuse to get government handouts.

I live in a small apartment here paying $875 a month out of Toronto. I have a cheap car good on gas. My point is if someone wants to be in debt to your eyeballs with big mortgages then it is their life mistake.

I have managed work and be very careful with my money for 11 years now and managed to have now $275,000 in my TFSA, RRSP. People stop wining, complaining and take responsibility for your lives. Educate yourself on money, saving, investments.

#142 TurnerNation on 10.04.18 at 1:16 pm

What’s this and where there’s smoke there’s ire?

“Manulife Financial refutes Muddy Waters report

MANULIFE STATEMENT ON MUDDY WATERS REPORT

Manulife Financial Corp. has stated that the Muddy Waters report is a short seller’s attempt to profit at the expense of the company’s shareholders, and Manulife disagree with its conclusions. Manulife continues to believe that Mosten’s position is legally unfounded. The company firmly believes that the consumers purchasing universal life policies, and the insurers issuing these policies, never intended to have the policies function as deposit or securities contracts. The company has a sound, highly rated global franchise. The company expects it will prevail with respect to this matter and that it will not affect Manulife’s business operations or its ability to meet obligations to its customers, vendors and other key stakeholders”

#143 Shawn allen on 10.04.18 at 1:44 pm

Real mark, your lecturing style is so incredibly annoying and off putting. I implore you to read how to win friends and influence people and to take a dale carnegie course.

Perhaps I need a refresher too because of course no one ever accepts unsolicited criticism. But give it some thought. You are smart enough to know you can improve in that area.

#144 John Kenneth Galbraith on 10.04.18 at 1:55 pm

#141 Sheila Walsh on 10.04.18 at 1:13 pm

” I work 3 part-time jobs, 65 hours a week making between $14.50 to $15.50 an hour.
I have managed work and be very careful with my money for 11 years now and managed to have now $275,000 in my TFSA, RRSP.”

Good for you Sheila! Well done!

#145 Shortymac on 10.04.18 at 1:56 pm

Can confirm, a bunch of houses by me have just sat all summer long, despite price adjustments. Every month they go off my realtor saved list, and then they come back on.

House right down the street from me went from 800k July to 700k August to 750k September, to 730k October.

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/19960178/29-HADRIAN-DR-Toronto-Ontario-M9W1V5-Elms-Old-Rexdale

#146 Gulf Breeze on 10.04.18 at 2:03 pm

#58 YVR Lurker,

I lived on Pender island for many years and finally left that rock for Salt Spring Island close to three years ago. It’s a move I should have made much sooner for a variety of reasons.

The smaller islands lack the population to attract and keep a thriving economy of any sort, outside of tourism. There are limited services. It’s boring as heck in the winter and ferry service is inadequate all year.

Take my advice. If you are moving to the islands and can afford it, don’t even consider a smaller island. Great places to visit…but that’s it! Many people who are on the smaller islands feel trapped there.

#147 Wrk.dover on 10.04.18 at 2:15 pm

#120 IHCTD9 on 10.04.18 at 10:57 am

I never had any problems with those overweight sleds with the glass differentials and spaghetti axles!!

———————————————
Nor I.

Fastest is lightest. Why they don’t drag Hummers.

You didn’t do your research. Lightest V8 RWD domestic built was an AMC Hornet. Skip that. The next lightest was Monza. Looked like a Ferrari 365 from the rear angle you saw them all at because same designer.

Poseurs prefer GAP, Old Navy and Mustang, so those three things are all overpriced.

An unmolested bone stock Monza or derivative with a bone stock bolt right in place, small valve 69 truck SB, no mods other than 252 cam, headers open Y pipe and shift kit runs very high thirteens with a 2:29 posi rear on bald 185 70 13 tires.

You know enough about cars to understand that particular all legal $2000 more or less ride right there can do even 12’s or less with just a ratio/housing change and slicks. But as is will cruise at the length of 401 at 150km/hr with out spewing coolant while returning 20mpg.

‘Magin what potential could have been possible for you there with a fraction of the stupid money you threw at your elegant brick to taste some tens!

#148 MF on 10.04.18 at 2:26 pm

AB Boxter,

The fact is the boomers came of age during the biggest post ww2 boom in the history of the western world.

To compare their experience to ours is to ignore that fact.

All I hear from boomer co workers was how “good it was before”, so this idea is coming from them most of the time anyways, not us.

MF

#149 Ubul on 10.04.18 at 2:31 pm

“The immigration department changed a web page about asylum seekers to swap the word “illegal” for “irregular” as a debate was erupting between the federal government and Ontario on the issue, CBC News has learned.”

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/asylum-seekers-immigration-illegal-irregular-federal-government-1.4847571

Great idea.

Decriminalization of illegal activities has great potential, just to name a few:

tax evasion = irregular income declaration

bank robbery = irregular cash withdrawal

sexual assault = irregular flirt

rape = irregular sexual intercourse

theft = irregular acquiring

election rigging = irregular vote count

lying = irregular use of words/facts

break and enter = irregular use of door

government decriminalizing illegal activities without legislation = irregular regime

minister decriminalizing illegal activities without legislation = irregular politician

Mr. Orwell missed this “irregular” opportunity big time.
Or he just didn’t see the future beyond 1984.

#150 MF on 10.04.18 at 2:32 pm

“Yes, you are so well informed on macroeconomic events by Instagram. – Garth”

-Yes. We need to get back to Walter Cronkite telling us what the body count in Vietnam for the day was! We are winning for sure!

MF

#151 SimplyPut7 on 10.04.18 at 2:40 pm

TREB is suing Mongohouse for $2 million.

Mongohouse is still down. I’m going to miss them.

https://business.financialpost.com/real-estate/canadas-largest-real-estate-board-sues-listings-website-mongohouse-for-2m

#152 AGuyInVancouver on 10.04.18 at 2:48 pm

Pretty much everyone interviewed in one media story from Kitimat was an Alberta refugee, already circling for BC jobs.

#153 jess on 10.04.18 at 2:50 pm

women as the commodity …
https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/04/africa/paris-nigerian-women-trafficking/index.html

The International Organization for Migration says the number of potential victims of sex trafficking arriving by boat in Italy has increased by almost 600% in the past three years, and 80% of them are Nigerian.
================
The trafficking of Nigerian women for prostitution began in the late 1980s, according to the UN, when women were sent to Italy and forced into sex work. Returning home, they became the first generation of madams. They, in turn, made other young women suffer as they did.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/04/africa/paris-nigerian-women-trafficking/index.html

A migrant’s journey: raped, beaten and forced into prostitution in Italy
Some of these women may in time buy trafficked girls of their own to pimp out. They become madams to free themselves from prostitution and earn the European riches they were initially promised.
The madams form clubs — sometimes with Facebook pages — and throw big parties where they charge for entry, using the profits to buy more girls. Nadège says her madam had young women throughout Europe — from Spain to Russia.
Les Amis du Bus des Femmes (LABF), a charity that works with prostitutes in Paris, says the sex trafficking route from Nigeria to Paris has existed for 20 years. But since 2015 the charity has noticed increasing numbers of under-age Nigerians. It recently found girls as young as 12 working as prostitutes on the streets of Paris.

#154 IHCTD9 on 10.04.18 at 2:54 pm

#126 KLNR on 10.04.18 at 11:40 am
@#103 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.04.18 at 9:00 am
@#74 The REAL Mark
“Whomever made that comment obviously has forgotten about the large numbers of people who formerly were engineering and constructing oilsands projects who have been unemployed or underemployed for the past few years”
+++++

The ravings of an uninformed idiot.

I have seen many many Alberta license plates at jobsites in BC over the past 5 years.
Many more are working on the Site C dam in Northern BC.
OBVIOUSLY the trades have moved west to where the work is.
There is STILL A MASSIVE TRADES SHORTAGE.
Oh, and we done need more “wet behind the ears” just out of uni “engineers” that dont know shit telling us how to fix their design “f-ups”.
If you want to get a real job Mark and move out of Mom’s basement….get an apprenticeship and a job…..before they are all taken by temporary foriegn workers.
_________________________

Now, now children.
_____

…and if the boys wanna fight, you better let ’em!

CEF is right tho.

#155 Vlad the inhaler on 10.04.18 at 2:57 pm

And that’s why we need a draft, maybe raise the age limit to include millennials, they complain too much, send them off to make the world safe for democracy

#156 Newcomer on 10.04.18 at 3:01 pm

#116 Linda on 10.04.18 at 10:48 am

Boomers who have not already built up a nest egg, not so much. In fact, they will likely work until they can’t because that is their only option.

——–

You are consistently the most sensible person in the comments section.

In the case of boomers, there is another option, which is cut spending right now. Many boomers could sell the house, downsize the cars, retool their vacations, and put together a retirement sized egg in just a few years. Cutting expenses is much more powerful in getting to financial independence than increasing earning because it not only increases savings but reduces future costs. And a modest stress-free lifestyle is more of a luxury than the most lavish hand-to-mouth existence. Unfortunately, the window for selling the house is rapidly closing.

#157 PastThePeak on 10.04.18 at 3:10 pm

#138 Barb on 10.04.18 at 1:03 pm
#130 Damifino on 10.04.18 at 11:58 am
———————————————————
“I think I’d be a bit uneasy driving through Alberta with BC licence plates at this point in Canadian history. ”

A disgusting and divisive comment!
And totally false.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Take it easy there snowflake. Overreact much?

It might be a divisive comment, but it is certainly not “disgusting”

Not sure the steerage comments section of Garth’s blog is the right place for you – triggering abounds…

#158 Alistair McLaughlin on 10.04.18 at 3:14 pm

MF, if you want to understand the advantages the boomers had, I strongly advise you to read Boom Bust and Echo. The book shares some insights that should be common knowledge, but aren’t. For example, the author makes the point that the early crop of boomers did indeed have it very good. Those born between 1946 and 1955 or so had it splendid as far as jobs, wage growth and general economic conditions. Those boomers born after 1955, and particularly those born 1960-65 encountered a much different world, and a much more difficult time of it. As did GenX that followed.

He lays waste to the idea that all boomers had it easy. Only the early ones did. A boomer born at the tail end of the boom – say 1965 – would have come of age in the miserable job market of the 1980s, sandwiched between the devastating 1981-83 recession and the not-quite-as-devastating-but-much-longer-lasting 1990s recession. For many, that had a permanently deleterious effect on their financial well-being. Yours is not the first generation to encounter stagnant wages, tight job markets, and little opportunity for advancement. I’ll leave aside the fact that you frequently brag about how well you and your friends are doing in the GTA, which according to you is “booming”. Apparently many of you are doing quite well.

#159 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.04.18 at 3:17 pm

@#130 Damfino
“I think I’d be a bit uneasy driving through Alberta with BC licence plates at this point in Canadian history. ”
++++

Total media horseshit.
A friend who is from Edmonton and has family in Calgary drives from BC 3 times a year all over Alberta for family visits.
NEVER EVER had an issue with BC Plates.

Total media BS to sell newspapers and tv ads.

“State of Fear” by Michael Crichton comes to mind where the media constantly feed “crisis” stories to keep people hooked…for the next story…..

#160 Damifino on 10.04.18 at 3:21 pm

#138 Barb

I’m not saying I think they would ambush me (although I wouldn’t blame them). I’m saying the welcome mat is probably not out on the flatlands, and for very good reasons.

They’ve played by the book every step of the way and we’ve dragged our heels as much as possible. But when it comes to flogging our north-eastern hydrocarbons out the back door we have the full support of government and first nations and can’t get it done fast enough.

I’d be angry about that. But I guess that’s just me. The prairie folk will probably just turn the other cheek, eh?

#161 Alistair McLaughlin on 10.04.18 at 3:26 pm

@ #98 John Kenneth Galbraith, only the increase to $15 has been cancelled, along with possibly some of the other reforms. They’ll keep their $14 per hour. The poor haven’t been defeated, though a few of them might have just had their jobs saved. Have you noticed the sudden increase in self-checkouts? The shortened hours at some stores? The increase in the number of restaurants closing? The increased prices at restaurants that remain open? The sudden uptick in the loss of part time jobs last month that was unique to Ontario? I have. Be glad Ford is doing what he’s doing. Too many marginal employees are already priced out of the jobs market by the current minimum wage. No wonder guys like you favour the guaranteed annual income.

#162 Long-Time Lurker on 10.04.18 at 3:57 pm

Cannabis ‘more harmful than alcohol’ for teen brains
3 October 2018

Teenagers using cannabis are causing long-lasting damage to their developing brains, a Canadian study suggests.

It found the impact on thinking skills, memory and behaviour was worse than that of teenage drinking.

The researchers, from the University of Montreal, urged teenagers to delay their use of cannabis for as long as they felt able.

The study tracked and tested 3,800 adolescents over four years, starting from around the age of 13.

Drinking alcohol and taking drugs, such as cannabis, at a young age is known to cause problems with cognitive abilities such as learning, attention and decision-making as well as academic performance at school.

This study found these problems increased as cannabis use increased – and the effects were lasting, unlike those of alcohol…

…”Their brains are still developing but cannabis is interfering with that,” Prof Conrod said, of teenagers….

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-45732911

#163 AfterTheHouseSold on 10.04.18 at 4:00 pm

#85 LP
“Funny you should speak of fishing.”

You reduced me to tears this morning LP. When we packed up my father’s house, his metal ribbed flashlight used for dew worm picking, was one of the few items I kept.

When he came in with his catch, he’d hold the stringer up beside us while pictures were taken, we being the yardstick by which the fish were measured.

He passed away a number of years ago on opening day of fishing season. It comforts me to think of him not as gone, but gone fishing.

Thank you for sharing that beautiful memory.

#164 jess on 10.04.18 at 4:02 pm

should have asked where the money was coming from?

“In a country where people lived so well for 20 years, it’s normal there will be protest,”

Leaders of the medieval enclave of San Marino are preparing to ask the International Monetary Fund for a €250m (£222m) loan to bolster its banks, still weighed down by bad debts 10 years after the global financial crisis.

The microstate, which is landlocked within central Italy, has struggled to recover from the effects of the 2008 crisis, which not only exposed the secret bank accounts that helped to generate a hefty amount of its wealth over the years but also embroiled its largest bank – Cassa di Risparmio della Repubblica di San Marino (CRSM) – in a money-laundering scandal.

Seven banks have closed within the past decade with the last five standing saddled with bad debts of approximately €1.7bn, equal to about 117% of the state’s GDP.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/oct/03/san-marino-plans-ask-imf-bailout-banks

#165 jess on 10.04.18 at 4:05 pm

the reset would be a double impeachment!

Mike Pence accuses China of meddling in US elections despite lack of evidence

Vice-president’s allegation echoes similar claim made by Trump last week but has been contradicted by cybersecurity experts

Mike Pence has claimed that Russian interference in US elections “pales in comparison” with Chinese meddling, which he said was aimed at ousting Donald Trump.
Trump accuses China of meddling in midterms, citing Iowa newspaper ad
Read more

The vice-president’s allegation echoes a similar claim made by the president at the UN last week, but it has been contradicted by cybersecurity experts and the administration has yet to provide any supporting evidence.

The administration’s own secretary of homeland security, Kirstjen Nielsen, said: “We currently have no indication that a foreign adversary intends to disrupt our election infrastructure.

#166 Gravy Train on 10.04.18 at 4:09 pm

#135 AB Boxster on 10.04.18 at 12:41 pm
“[…] Here’s a hint: In the real world IQ don’t mean jack […].” That certainly explains your success in life, doesn’t it? :)

#167 The Real Mark on 10.04.18 at 4:42 pm

“#143 Shawn allen on 10.04.18 at 1:44 pm “

Took me a while to figure out what was going on here, but I think the real Shawn Allen has an imposter. Just like I have an imposter who keeps concocting nonsense about me living with my mom (something I haven’t for decades!).

Maybe pick up a better hobby whomever you are, because personation is just a quintessentially lame thing to engage in.

#168 John Kenneth Galbraith on 10.04.18 at 5:09 pm

#161 Alistair

“No wonder guys like you favour the guaranteed annual income.”

My quote that the poor have been defeated was an actual quote of the real John Kenneth Galbraith. He called mimimum wage the poor person’s union. Your buddy Ford has no problems supporting ultra rich farmers and their managed supply system while not giving the poor a higher minimum wage. Hypocrisy of the highest order.

#169 John Kenneth Galbraith on 10.04.18 at 5:16 pm

#158 Alistair

“He lays waste to the idea that all boomers had it easy. Only the early ones did. A boomer born at the tail end of the boom – say 1965 – would have come of age in the miserable job market of the 1980s, sandwiched between the devastating 1981-83 recession and the not-quite-as-devastating-but-much-longer-lasting 1990s recession.”

The tail end of the baby boom would be me. Born in 1965 I bought my first home in 1990 in the year I was married and our combined income was 1/3 of our purchase price. Paid it off by the time I was 29. In the GTA, on the subway line. Today it is a rental and worth 1.2 million. How many 25 year olds could buy it today?

#170 Linda on 10.04.18 at 6:12 pm

#156 Newcomer – thanks for the compliment:) You are correct that indebted Boomers can retrench. Whether they have the will to do so is another matter. I think that some people have a spending addiction. Or maybe its a phobia about saving money. Regardless of why, these folks have a fiscal problem & like any other addict, have to want to change. Preferably before they end up having to rely on the social safety net. Old & broke does not generally result in a high quality of life.

#171 Steven Rowlandson on 10.04.18 at 7:06 pm

RE:#74

“Where the hell are they going to find the qualified trades to do the work?”

Maybe they won’t find the people to do the work.

The trades don’t get paid to live in Canada therefore if they couldn’t find work they are either retired, doing something else or having supper at the Sally Anne and if they are lucky they sleep in their car just like me.

#172 Steven Rowlandson on 10.04.18 at 7:15 pm

RE#23

Currencies for the most part are based on debt not equity.
So if the debt is no good neither is the currency…..
0% to 5+% on garbage is still garbage. Guess why Asia and parts of Europe love gold and silver? Properly done there is little counter party risk.

#173 Tater on 10.05.18 at 7:34 am

Since profits determine markets, no crash.

——————————————————————–
This assumes that the rate of growth in earnings is equal to or faster than the raise in rates.

Considering how low rates are, that doesn’t seem likely.

Profits have been growing at double-digits. The Fed funds rate is 2.25%. – Garth