‘Until it bursts’

The good news? The economy’s steamy. Our GDP just blew past estimates. Factories humming. Eighteen months of consecutive gains. Despite grief with oil.

The bad? Growth means inflation. And higher rates. Given what the Fed did this week, rest assured our guys will repeat. (Markets figure an October hike is 80% done.) Regardless of what the orange guy does about a trade deal. Your mortgage is going up. Real estate markets, not so much.

But this is a good thing, as far as financial giant UBS is concerned. At least in the GTA, YVR and the LM. Because compared to the rest of the world, people there still live in a bubble. And according to CMHC, many of them are engaged in destructive behaviour. Yes, even before Weed Day arrives.

First, consider this: The UBS Global Real Estate Index of poochedness says there are 5 housing bubbles on the planet. Little Canada owns two of them. On their index a score of 1.5 means a giant gasbag likely to collapse. Vancouver scores a 1.92. Toronto gets a 1.95. The most unaffordable place in the world is Hong Kong, at 2.03. (The population density of HK is 6690 people/km, by the way. Canada’s density is 3.7/km.)

Says UBS: “tighter mortgage lending rates, rising interest rates or an economic downturn could turn the lights out on the party given the high valuations and strained affordability.” The organization’s definition of a bubble is interesting: “a substantial and sustained mispricing of an asset, the existence of which cannot be proved unless it bursts.”

Okay, bubble. We get it. Rising rates or an economic downturn are the threats. Check. The interest rate thing is happening. The NAFTA crash (if Trump is correct) might bring a made-in-Washington recession to Canada. Both of these are well-known, fully documented and headline-making issues.

And what are Canadians doing?

For that, let’s bring in the analysts at CMHC. This week they churned out a new report on what beavs in those markets are doing to prepare for an inevitable correction.

Ah… er, well, nothing actually. In fact, the polar opposite of what they should.

The fed agency says 3.1 million families now have HELOCs, or home equity lines of credit.

Is that a lot?

Well, there are (according to the last census) 8.5 million homeowners in the country, which means 36% have arranged to borrow against their houses. Two-thirds of them have drawn on those lines. In addition (according to StatsCan) 57% of homeowners have a mortgage. So, yeah, they’re swimming in debt. Plus, HELOC borrowing is swelling as folks refinance higher-interest car loans, unsecured LOCs and credit cards. And don’t forget about using the line to fund Junior’s condo down payment – increasing exposure to one, single asset class.

Why would so many families have HELOCs?

Here is how CMHC sees it: “Borrowers can draw on a set amount at their discretion, similar to credit cards and other types of revolving credit. The variable interest rate on a HELOC tends to be lower than that on an unsecured loan. Additionally, the repayment schedule is highly flexible. These are also less risky and have substantially lower delinquency rates compared to other consumer credit products.”

HELOCs appeal for their relatively low interest rates and (especially) because borrowers can make interest-only payments. In fact Ottawa says four in ten borrowers pay nothing back, letting their balances increase with interest payments that are essentially unmade.

And here’s CMHC’s warning:

“The use of these credit lines can lead to greater persistence of indebtedness and wealth erosion as homeowners tap their home equity. Higher debt service costs could become problematic for deeply indebted households during periods of rising interest rates. This type of debt can also become more problematic during periods when house prices decline. HELOC loan limits could be reduced, or the loan could even be called (since they are demand loans).”

Does it make sense to borrow on a HELOC at prime plus half a point (4.2%) to, say, invest in a balanced/diversified portfolio which may yield 7% over an extended period of time?

Sure, if you’re in a high tax bracket and can write off 100% of the interest; if you’re truly a long-term investor; if your portfolio is liquid and can be cashed if rates spike; if market volatility won’t spook you into selling into dips; if this debt is a small part of your net worth; and if you have some professional help to mitigate volatility, reduce risk and control emotion.

But, unfortunately. The top HELOC usages are (1) home renovations, (2) debt consolidation and (3) buying more real estate. So, in bubble markets folks are increasing their risk by borrowing against a threatened asset class to get even more of it. Or they’re taking high-interest, short-term debt and making it lower-interest, long-term debt backed by something that’s inflated and far from liquid.

Now consider RBC’s latest report:

Unaffordability is “off the charts” in Vancouver, Toronto and Victoria, with RBC’s index (amount of income needed to own) at 88 percent, 76 percent and 65 percent respectively — the highest in records going back to the mid-1980s. The measure uses an aggregate of all housing categories, including single-family detached homes and condos.

While rising prices had been the culprit behind the loss of affordability between 2015 and 2017, mortgage-rate increases accounted for the entire rise in carrying costs over the past year.

“We expect the Bank of Canada to proceed with further rate hikes that will raise its overnight rate from 1.50 percent currently to 2.25 percent in the first half of 2019,” the report said. “This will keep mortgage rates under upward pressure and boost ownership costs even more across Canada in the period ahead.”

Tell me how this ends well.

124 comments ↓

#1 Joe on 09.28.18 at 3:34 pm

I can’t believe… I am FIRST again…

Thank you Garth

#2 n1tro on 09.28.18 at 3:37 pm

Thank goodness my mortgage is only $700/month. :D

#3 Doug t on 09.28.18 at 3:40 pm

In the infamous words of Mr. T – I pity the fool

RATM

#4 Bert on 09.28.18 at 3:51 pm

Hi Garth! Moister and regular reader here. Just wanted to fix a few numbers:

“The population density of HK is 690 people/km, by the way. Canada’s density is 3.7/km.”

Hong Kong has a much higher density at 6690 people/km. Google screwed you with their poorly implemented automated bolding.

Also, seems more fair to compare Hong Kong density to Vancouver or Toronto (5400 people/km and 4150 people/km, respectively). Sorry to be stickler!

Not Google, my typo. – Garth

#5 Joe on 09.28.18 at 3:54 pm

it ends well the same way it has ended well for the last 10 years plus

#6 Karl on 09.28.18 at 3:57 pm

Majority of people continue to service their debt thanks to that electric economy you keep talking about.

For those who got greedy and maxed out their LOCs to buy more speculative real estate and are actually on the brink – they fail.

Simple as that.

#7 X on 09.28.18 at 4:00 pm

“We expect the Bank of Canada to proceed with further rate hikes that will raise its overnight rate from 1.50 percent currently to 2.25 percent in the first half of 2019,” the report said. “This will keep mortgage rates under upward pressure and boost ownership costs even more across Canada in the period ahead.” RBC

It sure will be worse if it goes from 1.50% to 3.0% by 2020.

#8 Penny Henny on 09.28.18 at 4:03 pm

and if you have some professional help to mitigate volatility, reduce risk and control emotion.- Garth

/////////////////

Garth what you said right there is exactly what Stan Brooks needs. Professional help to control emotion.

#9 Shawn Allen on 09.28.18 at 4:11 pm

It’s not Canadians’ problem rather it is Canadian’s problem. Sucks to be those particular Canadians who binged most irresponsibly on debt.

#10 Ponnaps on 09.28.18 at 4:13 pm

Canada rates went in lockstep with US when things were even keel with NAFTA agreements in place and US-CAN as equal trading partners.. things are obviously changing in quite the opposite direction and I don’t see why rate will and need to go in lock step anymore.

Lets admit it Canada is no more a favorable trading partner with the US and as a consequence we needn’t keep looking for interest rate nor exchange rate parities anymore…

With 1000s of jobs set to be lost, it just doesn’t make sense to raise rates just to maintain parity when we don’t satisfy the preconditions to make that happen nor have the post conditions to bear the consequences of it..

Dropping or even holding rates may actually give Canada the opportunity to clean up the mess, invest in future technologies, ensure its sovereignty thereby removing that dependency which dictates us to go lockstep with the US all the time..

#11 Lost on 09.28.18 at 4:17 pm

Well increase the no. of immigrants. half million every year to keep up the economy. world has lots of money and lots of rich people wants to come here. But this all hurting working class locals. hard to keep it up. everything is expensive here.

#12 Mossy on 09.28.18 at 4:44 pm

@#4 Bert on 09.28.18 at 3:51 pm

Source for these population density stats?

I see a 2018 Fraser Institute study that puts HK at 25,719 residents/sq km and Toronto at 4,457.
https://www.fraserinstitute.org/sites/default/files/room-to-grow-comparing-urban-density-in-canada-and-abroad.pdf

#13 IHCTD9 on 09.28.18 at 4:44 pm

#2 n1tro on 09.28.18 at 3:37 pm
Thank goodness my mortgage is only $700/month. :D
—-

Sweet!

Cheaper than rent, same as mine was. :)

“Cheaper than rent” suggests you have zero dollars tied up in equity. That’s never the case. – Garth

#14 Guy in Calgary on 09.28.18 at 4:47 pm

As more working couples are approaching retirement, they may be looking to establish HELOC’s as a type of emergency fund before they stop working and risk not being able to qualify.

#15 FLHTK on 09.28.18 at 4:48 pm

With the cost of living in Canada, it’s no wonder people move to different countries like Panama, Costa Rica and ecuador. Cheaper living, nicer weather. It’s almost getting to the point where one should consider moving to a cheaper part of the world or at least live their 6 or 7 months a year and rent an apartment here for the remainder…..what’s a guy in his mid 30’s to do?

#16 Mike on 09.28.18 at 4:56 pm

Doesnt matter what Fed or B20 or whoever does, not much price cuts seen in Calgary or Edmonton market – even when economy/oil industry is on done side.

Things are booming. Housing inventory is high, but nobody is cutting prices.

Calgary Real Estate Board: so far in September sales -12%; listings +17%, prices -4%. Some boom. – Garth

#17 ts on 09.28.18 at 4:57 pm

@#5
Sure Joe. Keep wearing those rose coloured glasses. That’s all you’ll have left soon as interest rates keep rising to the moon. And in HHCE’s famous words “happy housing crash”.

#18 Smith on 09.28.18 at 5:05 pm

@Ponnaps.

A large interest rate disparity between Canada and the US will:
1. Devalue the Canadian dollar.
2. Increase imported inflation. 65% of our imports are from the US.
3. Increase foreign capital in our real estate and ownership of our corporations at the expense of locals.
4. Decrease the attractiveness of Canadian government debt international markets, until it drops in price price. This will actually force long term interest rates up, which is primarily how your mortgage rate is determined.

Interest rates are going up. The BOC doesnt have a choice. The banks have raised fixed rate mortgages even when the BOC held the rates. Their cost of borrowing has gone up.

While Canada is inextricably tied to the United States our interest rates will be in lockstep. If Canada had a more balanced import and export market we would have more control on our interest rates. So unless you want a Northern Peso or South American style inflation you raise rates.

#19 Dave on 09.28.18 at 5:08 pm

What about Kitimats billion dollar project cause real estate boom?

#20 HowDeepThePain? on 09.28.18 at 5:17 pm

“Lets admit it Canada is no more a favorable trading partner with the US and as a consequence we needn’t keep looking for interest rate nor exchange rate parities anymore…
With 1000s of jobs set to be lost, it just doesn’t make sense to raise rates just to maintain parity when we don’t satisfy the preconditions to make that happen nor have the post conditions to bear the consequences of it..”

But mortgage rates are set by the bond market…I can’t picture a situation where Canada gets punted from NAFTA, experiences a severe economic recession…and buyers line up to buy our bonds?
It seems obvious that Trump is going to slap Canada to send a message to the real trade target- China

#21 John on 09.28.18 at 5:24 pm

Question for Garth

Where can you find the probability for BOC Canadian overnight rate hikes? I have seen a similar benchmark for the US Fed rate on Bloomberg but can’t find for ours.

Thanks

John

Overnight index swaps. – Garth

#22 Stan Brooks on 09.28.18 at 5:26 pm

The Road To Hell

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ToQhVV7WpLk

Chris Rea

We’ll I’m standing by a river but the water doesn’t flow
It boils with every poison you can think of.
Then I’m underneath the streetlights
But the light of joy I know
Scared beyond belief way down in the shadows.
And the perverted fear of violence chokes a smile on every face
And common sense is ringing out the bells.
This ain’t no technological breakdown
Oh no, this is the road to hell.

And all the roads jam up with credit
And there’s nothing you can do
It’s all just bits of paper flying away from you.
Look out world
Take a good look what comes down here
You must learn these lesson fast and learn it well.
This ain’t no upwardly mobile freeway
Oh no, this is the road
This is the road
This is the road to hell

#23 Russ on 09.28.18 at 5:27 pm

Bert on 09.28.18 at 3:51 pm

Hi Garth! Moister and regular reader here. Just wanted to fix a few numbers:

“The population density of HK is 690 people/km, by the way. Canada’s density is 3.7/km.”

Hong Kong has a much higher density at 6690 people/km. Google screwed you with their poorly implemented automated bolding.

Also, seems more fair to compare Hong Kong density to Vancouver or Toronto (5400 people/km and 4150 people/km, respectively). Sorry to be stickler!

Not Google, my typo. – Garth
====================

Those densities don’t seem all that bad…

How wide is that kilometer you guys are using?

Cheers, R

#24 Loonie Doctor on 09.28.18 at 5:27 pm

Unaffordability in Toronto the highest in records going back to the mid-80s. I remember what followed… the 1990s. My “wealthy” Toronto relatives suddenly went silent. It was great.

#25 False comparison on 09.28.18 at 5:35 pm

There ya go again, creating silly comparisons that only the most gullible blogdogs lap up without question.

Why would you compare HK (a city state) with Canada (a barren wasteland). If you compare apples to apples, or HK to Toronto the population densities are not that far off.

HK is 6690 people/km.
Toronto is 4,149.5 people/km (2011).

https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2011/as-sa/fogs-spg/Facts-csd-eng.cfm?Lang=eng&GK=CSD&GC=3520005

Not my comparison. Go argue with UBS. Anyway, NY has double the density of Toronto. – Garth

#26 Well on 09.28.18 at 5:37 pm

Tell me how this ends well.

If inflation starts to really get roaring, the debt principle will wither away in real-money terms.

$1M debt in 2023 dollars may be quite manageable, because the cad has lost half its buying power by then?

This only works if your interest rate is fixed of course.

#27 NoName on 09.28.18 at 5:44 pm

And what are Canadians doing? -GT

Now that you asked, i was getting our furnace fixed, repair bill added up to 666, you should see our faces when we realized that, so i told dude, why don’t you make that first 6 in to 5 for just in case…
Repair guy must be dikleksiks he did exactly opposite he made last 6 in to 5.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A_sY2rjxq6M

#28 -=jwk=- on 09.28.18 at 5:51 pm

With an uplifting speech from the plucky young star, and a rousing song and dance number.

#29 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.28.18 at 5:51 pm

I cant think of a better economic scenario for Trudeau to try and get re-elected in 13 months……….

#30 dakkie on 09.28.18 at 5:52 pm

Global central bank watch, chart

http://www.investmentwatchblog.com/global-central-bank-watch-chart/

#31 GW on 09.28.18 at 5:55 pm

DELETED

#32 RWZM on 09.28.18 at 6:00 pm

Where will they hike this rate of mine
I run but it swells, like rising tides…

#33 theoryAndPractice on 09.28.18 at 6:05 pm

#4 Bert on 09.28.18 at 3:51 pm

Hi Garth! Moister and regular reader here. Just wanted to fix a few numbers:

“The population density of HK is 690 people/km, by the way. Canada’s density is 3.7/km.”

Hong Kong has a much higher density at 6690 people/km. Google screwed you with their poorly implemented automated bolding.

Also, seems more fair to compare Hong Kong density to Vancouver or Toronto (5400 people/km and 4150 people/km, respectively). Sorry to be stickler!

Not Google, my typo. – Garth
———————————————————–

In fact Garth is right on Canada number and has typo on HonKong , but the measurement unit must be said km^2

Ref 1:
https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2011/dp-pd/hlt-fst/pd-pl/Table-Tableau.cfm?LANG=Eng&T=101&SR=1&S=10&O=A

Canada Poupulation Density = 3.7 /km^2 (square km)

Ref2 : https://www.gov.hk/en/about/abouthk/factsheets/docs/population.pdf

Hon-Kong Pop density = 6690 / km^2 (square km )

#34 AGuyInVancouver on 09.28.18 at 6:14 pm

Am I correct that OFSI’s B20 rule has nothing to do with HELOCs? That banks can hand them out willy nilly if they like?

#35 The Real Mark on 09.28.18 at 6:21 pm

“Cheaper than rent” suggests you have zero dollars tied up in equity. That’s never the case. – Garth

///////////////////////

Sorry Garth but I don’t pay my mom any rent to live in the basement AND I have zero tied up equity except for my ‘Cabbage Patch Doll’ collection. Of which my mom approves. Sucks to be you.

#36 [email protected] on 09.28.18 at 6:32 pm

https://renx.ca/construction-begun-mississaugas-m-city/

The first tower received 13,500 offers for 550 units in the first three days, so a second building was quickly brought to market. The two 62-storey towers, M1 and M2, are a combined 93 per cent sold-out. The construction budget is $378 million.

M3 is next. Where is the demand coming from? 13,500 offers for 550 units ?

#37 Guy in Calgary on 09.28.18 at 6:35 pm

#16 Mike on 09.28.18 at 4:56 pm
Doesnt matter what Fed or B20 or whoever does, not much price cuts seen in Calgary or Edmonton market – even when economy/oil industry is on done side.

Things are booming. Housing inventory is high, but nobody is cutting prices.
—————————————————————-

Prices are being cut. Houses are being listed multiple times. The mortgage business here is very, very slow.

#38 Tom Clark on 09.28.18 at 6:45 pm

Living in Toronto feels like it has a density of 10,000+ during rush hour and some places resemble Dhakka, Chennai, Lagos or Mexico City even the people look weird too like they don’t belong here. It doesn’t help that feminists are also crying wolf at the TTC and claiming someone groped them during the Nazi occupation of the Roman Empire.

#39 Democracy Is Mob Rule on 09.28.18 at 6:46 pm

“Cheaper than rent” suggests you have zero dollars tied up in equity. That’s never the case. – Garth
_______________________________________________

Your calculations also ignore an important factor. That is the time spent in an owned property after the mortgage is paid off. You always include the mortgage in your comparisons, as if it never ends.

Suppose someone bought a house when they were 20 years old and paid off the mortgage by the time they were 50. Then they continue to live in the house until they are 80. All those years of living mortgage free bring down the average mortgage cost per year by half. Some people pay it off faster.

Suppose someone pays cash for a home. Then there is no mortgage interest to pay. Opportunity cost is then the main item to compare. This could be possible in some of the lower cost areas, like Moncton, where the median price is $140,000 (according to Demographia).

http://www.demographia.com/dhi.pdf

You also seem to conveniently ignore taxes on the assumed 7% return on investments.

That made little sense, since equity tied up in a property (no matter for how long nor how much) has a monetary value that needs to be factored in when pricing accommodation. As for investment returns, they are free of tax inside registered accounts. – Garth

#40 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.28.18 at 6:51 pm

@#35 The Real Real Mark
“Sorry Garth but I don’t pay my mom any rent to live in the basement AND I have zero tied up equity except for my ‘Cabbage Patch Doll’ collection. Of which my mom approves. Sucks to be you.”
+++++

ahahahaha good one.

It deserved repeating… :)

#41 Tony on 09.28.18 at 6:55 pm

Hong Kong is like a legal tax haven for the ultra rich. Comparing Canada and Hong Kong is like comparing apples to oranges. You can’t compare housing because of the high demand to live in Hong Kong due to low tax rates.

Bubbles are bubbles. The comparison is moot. – Garth

#42 reynolds531 on 09.28.18 at 6:55 pm

When you go to the bank for a mortgage now, it’s usually a loan which builds a HELOC as you pay it down. They didn’t even ask me if I wanted that….just sign here.

#43 Stan Brooks on 09.28.18 at 7:00 pm

#38 Tom Clark on 09.28.18 at 6:45 pm
Living in Toronto feels like it has a density of 10,000+ during rush hour and some places resemble Dhakka, Chennai, Lagos or Mexico City even the people look weird too like they don’t belong here. It doesn’t help that feminists are also crying wolf at the TTC and claiming someone groped them during the Nazi occupation of the Roman Empire.

Good observation.
Density is light but there is no infrastructure to support the population so the traffic is horrible, subway is bad and very limited, public transport is almost non existent for all intends and purposes.

European cities have 3 times the density and are much more accessible with much better public transport.

If you take pictures in some of the GTA suburbs and show it to foreigners they will think of some third world city, never guessing it is Canada. Istanbul looks much better.

95 % + working poor by any standard, but debt ‘millionaires’. Funny, the bigger the debt, the higher the ‘wealth’.

Walk around in Manhattan and you can see the difference, how rich people look like.
But hey, it is cheaper than Toronto.

#44 Jungle on 09.28.18 at 7:04 pm

Heloc spending is actually good. At least it’s being spent otherwise sitting there being unproductive.

Remember there are a lot of people with hundreds, and thousands of dollars in equity. So much wealth tied up . Might as well use it , what good is it tied up for?

Since interest rates started going up, condos have surged and detach are steady holding value in Toronto.

Both central banks are not worried about inflation and cite targets in 2% range, very sustainable Ina growing economy.

You know what the mother load is? 10m in Gta by 2040. And we are very desirable and multicultural, in like Hong Kong. Anyone can live here

#45 Fish on 09.28.18 at 7:09 pm

Canadian Existing Home Sales (August 2018)

https://economics.td.com/ca-existing-home-sales

#46 Dolce Vita on 09.28.18 at 7:25 pm

Hang on there…

Of the 3.1 million HELOCs, 1.1 million are untapped (have a zero balance) or about 1/3 have a zero balance.

The average HELOC is about $65,000 which is MISLEADING as it includes zero balance HELOCs.

Non-zero balance HELOCs average at $97,000 (tapped).

Highest tapped HELOC average is BC at $124,000. In perspective, the lowest average is the Atlantic region at $68,000.

66% of all outstanding household debt are mortgages and 11% HELOCs.

77% of household debt secured by Real Estate.

-above source: Equifax/CMHC calculations, September 25, 2018.
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –

How does it end well?

After a RE price crash people pay down their debt like the Americans did post Great Recession after RE prices there dropped on average 25%.

Ends well as bad economic players are taken out of the economy for at least 10 years. Prosperity results as that money put to better use by others in the economy. Creative Destruction.

And if dick wad South of the border tariffs Cdn. auto, forget Creative Destruction, segue a decade of Stagflation.

#47 For those about to flop... on 09.28.18 at 7:31 pm

#159 AfterTheHouseSold on 09.28.18 at 12:41 pm
#146 For those about to flop…
RE: real estate reports
“It is rather unfortunate that people on this blog cannot accept these facts and just let me report.”

That is not the case at all flop. It has never been about content. It’s about quantity, thousands of posts by your own admission, and the huge moderating workload that you have heaped on Garth. You continued flooding this blog with your posts despite Garth warning of shutting the comment section down, workload being part of the reason.”

////////////////////////

You are absolutely wrong on this point, I have private emails between Garth and I where he asks me to continue to post this content on his blog.

Have you ever seen him ask me to stop posting?

No, because he knows what is going on and what is at stake.

I recently stated that I would not post anymore and I took a break and when we were talking off blog he said don’t worry about the whiners and to continue doing what I’m doing and come back on the blog.

The only reason I came back on the blog was because he sincerely asked me to continue to contribute and so I had to decide between helping him out and breaking a promise.

He appreciates the effort I put into my posts and has noticed how many people are interested in my study as well.

Not one Pink Post out of thousands has been deleted and you are also wrong about increasing his workload as I stepped up to the plate and supplied thousands of photos for him to use,he is still occasionally using them to this day.

Just an ill informed post all round, but anyway have a good weekend,Australia’s version of the Superbowl on TSN 2 tonight.

Black eyed peas performance before…

M44BC

#48 Al on 09.28.18 at 7:42 pm

standing room only at YSL Condos pre-construction sale in Markham. Haven’t seen this since Jan 2016.

#49 Greg Smith on 09.28.18 at 7:47 pm

2.25% is still 50% less than 2007’s Bank of Canada rate was 4.5%. This simply means rates will still be low!!!!!

#50 Harvey Lipshitz on 09.28.18 at 7:57 pm

What’s a mortgage ?

#51 Adam Major on 09.28.18 at 8:00 pm

Hey Flop,

Remember the Realtor who answered your sold price questions in the comment section a while back?

I built this site for you!

http://www.zealty.ca/map

Here is some more press:

https://www.livabl.com/2018/09/what-neighbours-paid-for-vancouver-homes.html

https://www.repmag.ca/news/greater-vancouver-sold-data-available-online-for-the-first-time-ever-248605.aspx

http://dailyhive.com/vancouver/zealty-interactive-real-estate-map-canada-bc

We had about 800 email sign ups an hour this morning and temporarily overloaded our server but I think we have it figured out now. Apparently people want sold data! Good news is the Real Estate Board has not shut us down yet. Will keep you posted on the progress.

Ask Garth, I sent him the press release first and name dropped “for those about to flop”!

#52 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.28.18 at 8:06 pm

@#47 For those about to Flop

Keep on posting amigo.
The information is appreciated and (unlike Realtors) true, unbiased and timely.

M57BC

#53 Linda on 09.28.18 at 8:07 pm

So RBC expects at least 3 rate hikes to take place between now & mid-2019. I’m just presuming 3 hikes of .25 per so the BOC base of 1.5% today becomes the estimated 2.25% predicted by RBC by mid-2019. Obviously interest rates for mortgages, HELOC’s & other loans will increase by at least the same amount as each BOC rate hike.

Can we expect said hikes will occur even if a ‘made in USA’ recession comes to Canada? Ouchies!

#54 JuliaS on 09.28.18 at 8:08 pm

HELOC is a secured loan. The house is not what makes it secure, but the fact property represents a block and a chain around your ankle you can’t run away from. So when you take out that which will take you the next 30 years to pay off, the bank goes: “Sure! Have that money. We know where you live!”

#55 Long-Time Lurker on 09.28.18 at 8:11 pm

#112 Karlhungus on 09.27.18 at 11:41 pm
I’m in a variable rate mortgage, prime minus .6. I’ve inquired about locking in, lender said I could lock in for 5 years at 3.59%. Should I?

>There ya go. Apply.

#18 Smith on 09.28.18 at 5:05 pm
@Ponnaps.

Interest rates are going up. The BOC doesnt have a choice. The banks have raised fixed rate mortgages even when the BOC held the rates. Their cost of borrowing has gone up.

So unless you want a Northern Peso or South American style inflation you raise rates.

#47 For those about to flop… on 09.28.18 at 7:31 pm

>Hi, Flop. Nice to have you back.

Flop always posts constructive comments and has a sense of humour which is a real lifesaver in the comments section or should I say Garth Turner’s Thunderdome of Greater Fools.

#56 Cto on 09.28.18 at 8:16 pm

44 jungle
Question… Are you just plain old, run of the mill “General troll” or are you a “realtor troll”??? Which one?

#57 John on 09.28.18 at 8:24 pm

STAN BROOKS

lol…typical Stan remark.. dumber than a hammer..

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/istanbul-revealed-as-the-most-congested-city-in-the-world-10149543.html

#58 Calgary Market Insiders on 09.28.18 at 8:30 pm

Re #37

—–

Can some insiders share their wisdom on what has been happening in the Calgary RE market?

Looking at CREB statistics gives the impression that prices have been rather sticky, but how does that compare to the real world transactions when we account for changing sales mix and other factors that CREB numbers mask?

Based on MLS listed numbers, it seems that even in very good areas (e.g., Varsity Estates, Bayview, Pump Hill, Elbow Valley Estates) prices have been eroding and there is an ample selection of solid detached homes in these upscale areas well under 1M or just under 1M, which if my memory serves me well was not the case in 2014.

Any market insights from blog dogs with knowledge on what has really been going on in the Calgary RE market would be appreciated.

#59 the Jaguar on 09.28.18 at 8:32 pm

“Poochedness”. What a gem. Hard to imagine that some folks in places like the greater Vancouver area have not heard the sound of hissing as the gas bag deflates. There will be some who by their alert nature and ability to keep an ear to the track will exit with most of their marbles intact, but what about the financially illiterate ones who just kept using the ATM on their home to feed the fix they needed and get from spending, spending, spending? Oh me. It won’t be pretty. Maybe they think they can hand back the keys and walk away like some story they heard out of Alberta during the early 1980’s, but real estate law isn’t the same in B.C., and those old meanies at the bank won’t be walking away until every stone has been turned over. The fun part will be the finger pointing that goes on between those same lenders who made loans on inflated property assessments that were never based on substance but only on the ponzi scheme that unfolded in front of them for the last 20 years. Blind leading the blind. In these cases I always recommend the advice offered in the movie ‘Heat’, where Robert De Niro says. “Don’t let yourself get attached to anything you are not willing to walk out on in 30 seconds flat if you feel the heat around the corner.”

I think this line might have been stolen from Fishman, who posts here occasionally and has the same rascally tendencies.

#60 Russ on 09.28.18 at 8:35 pm

JuliaS on 09.28.18 at 8:08 pm

HELOC is a secured loan.
The house is not what makes it secure, but the fact property represents a block and a chain around your ankle you can’t run away from.

So when you take out that which will take you the next 30 years to pay off, the bank goes: “Sure! Have that money. We know where you live!”

———————————————–

Julia,

I love you. No truer words have been spoken on this blog.

These HELOC people become bank bitches and don’t even know it.

Cheers, R

#61 Dolce Vita on 09.28.18 at 8:37 pm

#49 Greg Smith

In 2007, household credit was a little over $1 trillion. Then household debt to disposable income was about 130%.

As of July 2018, household credit is $2.1 trillion. Household debt to disposable income is about 170%.

The 2007 rate was half of what it is today but today’s rate eats 40% more of disposable income with twice the debt load.

A Pyrrhic victory.

#62 april on 09.28.18 at 8:48 pm

#47- Flop, we also want you to keep posting. You do a great job.

#63 waiting on the westcoast on 09.28.18 at 8:53 pm

Calgary Real Estate Board: so far in September sales -12%; listings +17%, prices -4%. Some boom. – Garth

Lol… truth hurts!

I’m scared to actually feel that the waiting will finally bring some benefit. It is a bit brisk in Victoria.

Starting to see some prices drop significantly. Still more of a general trend. Hope it corrects reasonably slowly over the next couple of years.

#64 Chimingin on 09.28.18 at 8:55 pm

#47 – Flop: Go Eagles!!!!

#65 Dolce Vita on 09.28.18 at 8:55 pm

#57 John

I think you mean “dumber than a sack of hammers”.

I like “dumber than a a box or rocks” myself (more elemental and less processed, au naturel).

– – – – – – – – – – – – –

#47 For those about to flop…

Every day a visit to your website from Italia.

Keep posting the “amateur RE investor” results from La La Land.

Misery loves company as here in Italia RE is a down, down and more down proposition – simply a roof over your head and not a get rich quick scheme.

#66 Danny on 09.28.18 at 8:59 pm

Bubble…….”the existence of which cannot be proved unless it bursts.”…the 2 by 4…against the head..that unfortunately in a so called educated society in Canada…too many people need.

Priceless….shows that most people look at high mortgage payments….like gambling at the Casino.

They only talk about the few winnings…not the total accumulative losses over the course of being an addict at gambling.

Everyone who bought real estate in the last two years …paid too much.

Those who sold….laughed all the way to the bank.

#67 Risktopia on 09.28.18 at 9:05 pm

So many people think they’ll outsmart the market when the bubble bursts. In fact, they’re planning for it.

Little do they know.

Even the most ‘prepared’ will get pummeled by the bear.

http://www.risktopia.com/2018/09/you-wont-outsmart-next-bear-market.html

#68 Vision on 09.28.18 at 9:05 pm

I work in a hospital with educated professionals, mostly millenials.
All the talk today was about Kavanaugh and the scandal
No one mentions Nafta talks failing, the potential interest rate increases and the impact on our economy .
These are people who have bought homes recently, in Toronto and GTA. These are people who get their news on Twitter ( and admit it) These are people who believe home prices will go up. These are the same People who will re-elect Mr. Dressup.
If educated people are thinking this way, what are the uneducated population thinking?
These are people who are paid by public money and are so smug that their jobs are secure.
These are people who probably have $ 1 Million dollar mortgages. Who have no issues to go out for lunch.
And rent their extra condos they bought for investment.
I wonder if there is a downturn, will they keep grinning.

#69 Gulf Breeze on 09.28.18 at 9:29 pm

#10 Ponaps,

Agreed. The Bank of Canada would be out or their minds to raise interest rates. Fade those who use history as a guide in that respect. We are in uncharted waters.

Of course the central bank will hike. – Garth

#70 rc99ar on 09.28.18 at 9:32 pm

Double digit inflation will clean it up eventually. Not great for retired fixed income types but politically palatable. Welcome back stagflation

#71 ImGonnaBeSick on 09.28.18 at 9:35 pm

I knew the population in Toronto was dense…

#72 rc99ar on 09.28.18 at 9:36 pm

@Dolce Vita. I love Italian REITS at these prices. Hope to make them 5% of portfolio soon

#73 Terry on 09.28.18 at 9:40 pm

NAFTA trade negotiations underway in Washington between the U.S. and Canada right now. Canada giving way on dairy and supply management. Expect a breakthrough trilateral new NAFTA agreement this weekend.

Stay tuned…………..

#74 45north on 09.28.18 at 9:47 pm

The UBS Global Real Estate Index of poochedness says there are 5 housing bubbles on the planet. Little Canada owns two of them. On their index a score of 1.5 means a giant gasbag likely to collapse. Vancouver scores a 1.92. Toronto gets a 1.95.

yeah I saw that

the fact that Hong Kong and Munich had a higher index doesn’t mean much. What is important, très important is that both are likely to collapse. What’s also important is that Toronto and Vancouver are the two biggest real estate markets in the country. They will pull down the entire country. How could they not?

#75 For those about to flop... on 09.28.18 at 9:52 pm

Recent sale report.

O.k so using the new tool that Adam created I can pass this information on.

Paid 1.38 November 2018

Sold 1.30 August 2018

So after paying expenses they are probably out 150k on a downtown condo.

I went looking for a couple of recent sales and they weren’t up but overall I think this will help you still need to know where to look.

I said we needed realtors with consciences to make the marketplace a better place for the consumer.

It looks like I finally found one…

M44BC

Asking 1.35

102 1168 Richards Street, Vancouver paid 1.38 November 2017 ass 1.39

Mar 28:$1,538,000
Jun 28: $1,450,000
Change: – 88000.00 -6%

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/1168-richards-street/102

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/RDAwMDAyQlBDVA==

#76 John on 09.28.18 at 9:53 pm

Dolce Vita

Dumber than a sack of hammers gives credit to maybe being smarter than a single hammer. And that is not possible. But your correction on the proper saying is duly noted with thanks.

#77 Myra Andrews on 09.28.18 at 9:54 pm

Stats for Greater Vancouver from realtor Paul Boenisch

Sept 28 New 153 Sold 77 TI:13,766
Sept 27 New 184 Sold 81 TI:13,755
Sept 26 New 236 Sold 78 TI:13,724
Sept 25 New 270 Sold 127 TI:13,649
Sept 24 New 288 Sold 142 TI:13,586

Sept 21 New 171 Sold 63 TI:13,574
Sept 20 New 218 Sold 81 TI:13,538
Sept 19 New 227 Sold 99 TI:13,472
Sept 18 New 266 Sold 99 TI:13,418
Sept 17 New 360 Sold 93 TI:13,339

Sept 14 New 143 Sold 85 TI:13,239
Sept 13 New 225 Sold 58 TI:13,240
Sept 12 New 268 Sold 90 TI:13,147
Sept 11 New 325 Sold 77 TI:13,057
Sept 10 New 487 Sold 87 TI:12,916

Sept 7 New 197 Sold 87 TI:12,681
Sept 5-6 New 609 Sold 195 TI: 12,653
Sept 4 New 498 Sold 53 TI:12,439

Inventory at the end of August was 12,510

#78 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 09.28.18 at 10:12 pm

#47 For those about to flop… on 09.28.18 at 7:31 pm
……………………….

Keep up the good work dude. You are appreciated here.

#79 mike from mtl on 09.28.18 at 10:20 pm

#38 Tom Clark on 09.28.18 at 6:45 pm
Living in Toronto feels like it has a density of 10,000+ during rush hour and some places resemble Dhakka
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Duh that’s because TO is like any other North American city NYC included, with awful public transit. EU (mostly) and East Asia don’t even compare in this regard to the shitty metros and bussing we have here.

Pop density or lack thereof is not an excuse for how terrible in general transit is in here.

#80 renter in Surrey on 09.28.18 at 10:21 pm

Vancouver home prices likely aren’t done rising yet: Scotiabank Economics report

https://www.livabl.com/2018/09/vancouver-home-prices-arent-done-rising-yet.html

#81 For those about to flop... on 09.28.18 at 10:28 pm

Recent sale report.

Well, I could do these as CONFIRMED PINK SNOW posts but I guess it is best to leave that as I do when the bc assessment database is updated.

Anyway this drags the information forward a couple of months…

M44BC

Paid 854 July 2017

Sold 838 August 2018

Townhome

16 16261 23a Avenue, Surrey paid 854 July 2017

https://www.zolo.ca/surrey-real-estate/16261-23a-avenue/16

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/RDAwMDBZWTdOOQ==

So they paid 854k and they were asking 838k when it sold 39 days ago.

#82 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.28.18 at 10:38 pm

@#56 Cto re “the jag”
“Question… Are you just plain old, run of the mill “General troll” or are you a “realtor troll”??? Which one?

+++++
As a self admitted “general troll”….I’m putting my money on “realtor troll” for Mick the jagger……

#83 SnowLover on 09.28.18 at 10:45 pm

“In Toronto, the average household would need to spend 75.9 per cent of its income to cover the cost of owning a home, says RBC. That compares to a Canadian average of 53.9 per cent, up from 43.2 per cent three years ago.”

https://www.thestar.com/business/2018/09/28/canadas-housing-affordability-has-reached-the-worst-level-in-28-years-and-toronto-is-off-the-charts-report-says.html

My household % in sunny Edmonton, Alberta: 18.9%. Great place to live, if you like snow.

#84 Doug in London on 09.28.18 at 10:48 pm

So how does this story end well? In the near future it doesn’t for anyone heavily mortgaged and struggling to make mortgage payments now and will have to renew. How about many years from now? Here’s something I read in August of this year: After a correction in the price of real estate or any other hot investment, people won’t be urging you to buy anymore. At that point let the bargain hunting begin. How’s that for a happy ending?

#85 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.28.18 at 10:50 pm

@#73 Terry
“Canada giving way on dairy and supply management….”
+++++
Well… I’ll believe it when I see it but perhaps Ontario’s car industry really can “trump” Quebec’s 50% lock on the Dairy cartel…

Either way, Trudeau will be eviscerated in the federal election in 2019 if either the Supply management OR the Car industry is “NAFTA’d” away………say bye bye to either Ontario or Quebec seats…… painful for “baby T2” ‘s ego but ….he’s young….perhaps he can run for PM again in 2039?

#86 45north on 09.28.18 at 11:13 pm

Vision: These are people who have bought homes recently, in Toronto and GTA. These are people who get their news on Twitter ( and admit it) These are people who believe home prices will go up. These are the same People who will re-elect Mr. Dressup.
These are people who are paid by public money and are so smug that their jobs are secure.
These are people who probably have $ 1 Million dollar mortgages. Who have no issues to go out for lunch.
And rent their extra condos they bought for investment.
I wonder if there is a downturn, will they keep grinning?

no they won’t

#87 Viorelli on 09.28.18 at 11:14 pm

Soon even the upper middle class will be collecting crumbs, as there will be no work for lawyers, accountants, pharmacists, teachers, professors, etc. The only answer they have for you is war as starving masses will need someone to blame and will be directed by the elite to slaughter. There is no other way for the globalists out of the mess they had created, the house of cards will eventually fall. Do you still have faith in pensions, and ever appreciating real estate with Air B and B’s? I have seen the initial signs of upcoming disaster just prior to the collapse of the USSR and run when I had the chance. I see a very close resemblance of what is about to hit the “progressive” western democracies.

#88 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.28.18 at 11:16 pm

Of course, the economy is booming.
Even doctors and dentists are working 24/7.
Fuelled by cheap labour from Asia.
Cutthroat competition.
24 hour rush hour in Vancouver.
Doctors offices full with patients asking for Lorezepan.
Overdose deaths are now about 5 a day.
Best place on earth, my ass.

#89 Long-Time Lurker on 09.28.18 at 11:24 pm

For the young’uns who have no idea what the Thunderdome is.

Turner vs. Turner. Hot abs vs. hot legs.

Mad Max Beyond Thunderdome (1985) – Two Men Enter, One Man Leaves Scene (4/9) | Movieclips

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9yDL0AKUCKo

#90 fishman on 09.28.18 at 11:24 pm

Alls well that ends well. So what if a bunch of speckers get creamed with rising interest rates. We went through that in 82. We were young then & fearless. Had to unlearn some good habits. Become a scab & break a union. Midnight shifts on the 100 fathom edge. Sell when the believers are buying. The regular stuff that successful uneducated men do.
A few no no’s. Don’t lose your drivers license or FAC. Don’t mess with the regulars & don’t do your own product. Simple.

#91 Vampire Studies on 09.29.18 at 12:04 am

Flopper – keep posting. People can just scroll if they want to.

Re: Population density of Vancouver’s west end is over
20000 per sq km.

57 John – go to the tomtom site to get the latest. Vancouver is No 34, ahead of Paris and New York. Yeppers, world class!

https://www.tomtom.com/en_gb/trafficindex/list?citySize=LARGE&continent=ALL&country=ALL

#92 Guy1 on 09.29.18 at 12:30 am

Dairy won’t be thrown under the bus until after the Quebec provincial election.

#93 DON on 09.29.18 at 12:48 am

Good to have you back Flop.

Blog dawgs will give you cover…keep shining the light!

M46BC

#94 Stan Brooks on 09.29.18 at 1:32 am

#57 John on 09.28.18 at 8:24 pm
STAN BROOKS

lol…typical Stan remark.. dumber than a hammer..

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/istanbul-revealed-as-the-most-congested-city-in-the-world-10149543.html

Hm, let’s see:

Your statistics is for 2015.

Commuters in Istanbul experience the worst traffic congestion overall, the evening rush hour is no exception. The average 30 minute drive in the city will take over an hour during evening rush hour

Here is the one for 2018:

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2018/02/28/the-hidden-cost-of-congestion

Istanbul is behing Chicago. Tell me now how Chicago has worse traffic than GTA.

Istanbul has much better public transport than Toronto:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_transport_in_Istanbul

Note: average drive in the city. Not commute. You can get public transport/much better than To.

How much is that average evening rush hour dirve in Toronto?

It must be really hard for real estate agents these days. Hungry and pissed off. Cherry picking. Lying for living.
Game over folks.

#95 Smoking Man on 09.29.18 at 1:44 am

Dr.Jimmy

I despise idiots.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RVk8Ze26_PA

#96 Stan Brooks on 09.29.18 at 2:32 am

Surprising news, it seems we are agreeing at the last moment with orange hair’s guy ultimatum on NAFTA.
In a humiliating manner, left without a room to negotiate and giving up on out pride, begging pretty much for a deal, but hey, it is a step forward.

Now no excuse for BoC not to raise after the ‘amazing GDP numbers’ (0.2 % monthly growth with 0.5 % monthly inflation and 1.5 % of GDP monthly debt growth, but hey, when you understate inflation you get ‘growth’ so now you have to raise rates) so another nail in the coffin of the real estate bubble and the hope of ‘return to normal’ by hungry delusional realtors.

#97 Stan Brooks on 09.29.18 at 2:50 am

#65 Dolce Vita on 09.28.18 at 8:55 pm
#57 John

I think you mean “dumber than a sack of hammers”.

I like “dumber than a a box or rocks” myself (more elemental and less processed, au naturel).

– – – – – – – – – – – – –

#47 For those about to flop…

Every day a visit to your website from Italia.

Keep posting the “amateur RE investor” results from La La Land.

Misery loves company as here in Italia RE is a down, down and more down proposition – simply a roof over your head and not a get rich quick scheme.

You are wasting your time with professional lairs, scammers and con artists aka ‘realtors’, they lie for living, had it good for a while and are now hungry as there is no more sheeple left to milk.

They will tell you how the whole world wants to live here, how they do not make any more land (in Canada?) and how you have to pay a premium for the privilege to be a debt serf for life and will accuse you of all crimes (with pretty much the same words from a very limited dictionary, but what do you expect from real estate agents and amateur ‘investors’ after all?) as you are the ‘enemy’ to their scam ‘getting rich quickly with no work’ delusional schemes.

Of course a house is a necessity, a shelter, not an ‘investment’.

And of course it won’t work with Europeans, Italians have 40 % of GDP private debt, Canadians over 100 %,
for a price of a crack cornflakes moldy shack in Vancouver/GTA you can buy an Italian village or 3 french castles.

#98 Evangeline on 09.29.18 at 6:55 am

‘We’ll know in 48 hours’: Mexico sees new hope of trilateral NAFTA
David Lawder, Adriana Barrera
6 MIN READ
WASHINGTON/MEXICO CITY (Reuters) – Mexico on Friday said the U.S. Trump administration and Canada were making serious efforts to resolve trade policy differences after days of bickering, raising hopes of saving the North American Free Trade Agreement as a trilateral pact.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-trade-nafta/well-know-in-48-hours-mexico-sees-new-hope-of-trilateral-nafta-idUSKCN1M81OE?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=Social

#99 For those about to flop... on 09.29.18 at 9:21 am

#51 Adam Major on 09.28.18 at 8:00 pm
Hey Flop,

Remember the Realtor who answered your sold price questions in the comment section a while back?

I built this site for you!

http://www.zealty.ca/map

Here is some more press:

https://www.livabl.com/2018/09/what-neighbours-paid-for-vancouver-homes.html

https://www.repmag.ca/news/greater-vancouver-sold-data-available-online-for-the-first-time-ever-248605.aspx

http://dailyhive.com/vancouver/zealty-interactive-real-estate-map-canada-bc

We had about 800 email sign ups an hour this morning and temporarily overloaded our server but I think we have it figured out now. Apparently people want sold data! Good news is the Real Estate Board has not shut us down yet. Will keep you posted on the progress.

Ask Garth, I sent him the press release first and name dropped “for those about to flop”!

//////////////////////////////

Hey Adam, yes it has been a while but I remember you.

You were one of the few realtors to step up to the plate, as I think most of the people that helped me out were potential buyers that had access to the information.

I remember you wanting to help me but appeared somewhat conflicted as to what to do,you did good, if every realtor chipped in once a month with one piece of information we would have a clearer picture of the present market.

I was trying to build relationships and free up information as yelling at each other and calling people names is of no real benefit to anyone.

I still see your name occasionally when I visit my confirmed folder as I try to record people’s names and give credit when it is due.

I signed up on the first night after a guy that helps me out on my blog named Mike pointed it out.

I struggled a little bit to navigate my way around as I am not the most tech savvy guy, but last night with a bit of practice I was able to locate and report 6 cases with your help.

I have sausage fingers that have a habit of hitting the wrong button at the wrong time.

I found I had to go to google maps to find to address to know where to zoom in on to click on the right one, and so it would be great if there was a box to enter and address,but I don’t really want to criticize as I’m sure there are reasons for the way things are.

Your site brings the market one step closer to transparency and I wish you well.

Peace, Flop…

M44BC

#100 dharma bum on 09.29.18 at 9:26 am

#18 Smith

If Canada had a more balanced import and export market we would have more control on our interest rates.
——————————————————————–

Never fear!

I heard that Canada Goose jackets are so popular, that foreign demand will erase any looming trade deficit, eh!

#101 dharma bum on 09.29.18 at 9:42 am

#38 Tom Clark

Living in Toronto feels like it has a density of 10,000+ during rush hour and some places resemble Dhakka, Chennai, Lagos or Mexico City even the people look weird too like they don’t belong here. It doesn’t help that feminists are also crying wolf at the TTC and claiming someone groped them during the Nazi occupation of the Roman Empire.
——————————————————————-

Yah, exactly.

What’s up with that?

Lived here since ’59. What a transformation. Ooooofah!

Whatever happened to all the fun in the world?!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BuVz4f94uBg

#102 Stan Brooks on 09.29.18 at 9:43 am

For all the ‘smart’ investors out, there:

Vancouver home sales are at a six-year low, and now is the time to buy

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/vancouver-home-sales-six-year-low-now-time-buy-141410905.html

The sheeple better hurry up, the sale won’t last long.

Those hungry real estate agent stomachs and empty sockets must really hurt. It would be better to move to the pot sector.

#103 Alberta Ed on 09.29.18 at 9:50 am

Meanwhile, Mr. Dressup is schmoozing at the UN, oblivious to the real issues facing Canadians, as usual.

#104 After Communism on 09.29.18 at 10:17 am

UBS is using Greenspan’s too-loose-excuse that a bubble cannot be proven until it bursts and he specifically meant asset valuations are not proof of a bubble. So UBS cannot call that table a Bubble Index if they believe world central banking’s thirty year orthodoxy.

#105 X on 09.29.18 at 10:18 am

re #102 – I have wondered if his agenda on the side was to get himself some sort of Noble prize for gender issues….not that, that isn’t a good thing to try to improve, but I somehow don’t feel like he is doing it as part of a selfless cause.

#106 MF on 09.29.18 at 10:22 am

dharma bum on 09.29.18 at 9:42 am

I too have lived here my whole life in the GTA. Not sure what you are getting on about but the city is better than it was before.

Younger demographic, more energy, more confidence, bigger economy, more wealth. Better.

If you are trying to envision a time when the 401 had no traffic you might have to go back to 1940 prior to the baby boom. Your nostalgia is, like most, over exaggerated and inaccurate.

MF

#107 Adam Major on 09.29.18 at 10:33 am

Thanks Flop,

If you are logged in on the Map with your email and password: http://www.zealty.ca/map
you should be able to just type in the house number and all the matching listings in the province with that house number will show up. (Search bar top left). Turn on 365 days worth of solds if you want a years data. You can also select 7 days worth of solds and click “show solds only” to only see everything sold in the last week. We only have solds for Vancouver, Fraser Valley and Chilliwack boards. We will work to add Victoria and Okanagan soon.

FYI, if you want to see what is happening in the Vancouver Luxury market check out this link: Scroll down for MLS history. Sold for half the original list price. 30% below assessed value!

https://www.zealty.ca/mls.html?id=R2295521&[email protected]

We are still top trending article on Daily Hive Vancouver so that is great:

http://dailyhive.com/vancouver/category/urbanized

Feel free to email me through the Zealty.ca site as I don’t read the comments every day.

Cheers,
Adam

#108 Adam Major on 09.29.18 at 10:44 am

Flop,

For the Zealty.ca site, I should add there are more features on the desktop version of the map than the mobile version so if you are on a tablet or phone you don’t get as many options:

http://www.zealty.ca/map

Mobile version works on a desktop if you want full screen map:

http://www.zealty.ca/imap

#109 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.29.18 at 10:53 am

@#98 Flop
“Your site brings the market one step closer to transparency and I wish you well.”
+++++

Yep, and its only been a few months since the Court ruling.
A falling sales market.
Rising interest rates.
Perfect.
I’m thinking in another year there will be dozens ( if not hundreds) of real estate sites where the public can finally, finally get real, unbiased, verifiable sales info without the real estate sales BS…..
May the honest realtors survive….
May the rest file for unemployment.

#110 fishman on 09.29.18 at 11:26 am

SM, Maybe not a good idea to despise idiots. Follow Lenin’s teachings that they can be quite useful. Stroke them into the comfort zone. Deal with them accordingly at appropriate time.

#111 Oft deleted much maligned stock.picker on 09.29.18 at 11:33 am

Don’t believe the Trudeau GDP numbers for a second. Auto sector players are shovelling parts across the border as fast as they can to avoid the tariffs .This is not a booming economy it is snowing economy of terror.

https://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/update-1-u-s-mexico-trade-deal-text-to-be-released-as-focus-remains-on-canada

Trudeau described as ” apoplectic” because he’s being forced yo make decision instead of doing pirouettes for the CBC cameras. If there’s no decision by the 1st Canada will start falling like a drunk off his chair. Thousands would be laid off on Monday.

Likely the failure to knock off Kavanah from his SC appointment has the Dems crapping razor blades ….and Obama and Clinton will use Trudeau to fpit back at Trump. Trudeau needs the Democrat war chest to pay for his election…..expect no deal on NAFTA …..it’s out of our hands.

#112 nonconfidencevote on 09.29.18 at 11:33 am

Todays National Post re

The Province’s disastrous fiscal debt looming ever higher….

https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/andrew-coyne-the-wolf-is-really-at-provinces-door-pbo-fiscal-report-warns

The biggest cost moving forward….the demographic timebomb ….
Healthcare for an ageing boomer population….

We get to annoy Millenials into our 90’s !
Some of us will still be expensively drooling porridge and needing diaper changes at the old folks home until at least 2060.

#113 Smoking Man on 09.29.18 at 11:42 am

Best road trip while hung over.

https://youtu.be/wCYcSbCR6z4

#114 Heloguy on 09.29.18 at 12:04 pm

#71 ImGonnaBeSick on 09.28.18 at 9:35 pm

I knew the population in Toronto was dense

Best comment all day

#115 HowDeepThe Pain? on 09.29.18 at 12:13 pm

10 years later some homes still underwater…

https://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/rpt-insight-millions-of-americans-still-trapped-in-debt-logged-homes-ten-years-after-crisis?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1537006417

Meanwhile…Apple stock moves from $15 to $225. Maybe a one asset strategy (Real Estate) should be rethought? Sounds familiar…

#116 50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE! on 09.29.18 at 12:34 pm

Yep, Toronto is “dense” and simply not worth it. My friends came to that shithole every weekend this summer, and reported that traffic jams on the 401, 400 and DVP on Saturday and Sunday are worse than anywhere else on weekdays. Even if there was something interesting to see in the GTA, you can’t get there, LOL! Quality of life sucks there, neighbors talk about nothing but real estate like shallow doofuses.

And all the sports teams continue to suck, duping the local morons out of their cash to buy tickets with no value.

*Hey Toronturds – Better dip into that HELOC to get your Make Belief tickets soon – they haven’t lost a regular season game yet this year ;)

#117 yvrmc on 09.29.18 at 12:51 pm

Flop …. you have to stop listening and concerning yourself with asshat whiners on this blog… There are wayyyy more people that appreciate your efforts … keep it up brother….

#118 Overheardyou on 09.29.18 at 2:25 pm

#36 [email protected] on 09.28.18 at 6:32 pm

—————

That was launched last March, peak demand. Look out for the numbers on M3 this Fall, if it even get’s released

#119 Fish on 09.29.18 at 2:26 pm

Retirement savings gap

https://www.ontario.ca/page/retirement-savings-gap

#120 Ken on 09.29.18 at 2:37 pm

Hey Flop…your posts always contain interesting info, unlike so many others.
Keep up your good work, it is appreciated by many.

#121 For those about to flop... on 09.29.18 at 3:47 pm

#107 Adam Major on 09.29.18 at 10:44 am
Flop,

For the Zealty.ca site, I should add there are more features on the desktop version of the map than the mobile version so if you are on a tablet or phone you don’t get as many options:

http://www.zealty.ca/map

Mobile version works on a desktop if you want full screen map:

http://www.zealty.ca/imap

//////////////////

Hey Adam, there is just one more thing you could help me and perhaps Garth’s readers with.

I have no trouble when I type a street name like 123 Apple Street in for example, it takes me straight to the property.

How are you supposed to enter numbered avenues?

It just takes me back to the map.

Are you supposed to write…

123 e 23rd ave

123 East 23rd Avenue

Or what?

As I have tried different ways to enter a numbered Avenue and still haven’t had any success.

With your tutorial I have already gotten a lot better but I would appreciate if you can show us how we are supposed to enter these types of addresses…

M44BC

#122 Freedom first on 09.29.18 at 9:09 pm

…..it’s been a while. Good to be back. Flop….keep up the good work. Garth is still the man, and I, of course, am still living the Freedom First lifestyle.

#123 Steven Rowlandson on 09.30.18 at 10:36 am

“Tell me how this ends well.”

It doesn’t Garth. We will be lucky if it isn’t as bad as John Calhoun mouse utopia.

Death Squared
https://youtu.be/qDUUpMt1ruw

#124 Ilia Baskin on 10.02.18 at 12:56 pm

Are historic numbers for the Real Estate Bubble Index available anywhere?