Tremendously wet

DOUG By Guest Blogger Doug Rowat

Hurricane Florence barreled into the Carolinas last week causing widespread damage and significant flooding. As the category 4 hurricane approached, Donald Trump helpfully alerted the locals to the hurricane’s dangers by noting that it would be “tremendously wet”. Trump doesn’t always have a firm grasp of the obvious (you shouldn’t stare directly at the sun during an eclipse, for example) but, of course, in this instance, he was correct, with the ‘wetness’ causing some US$20–25 billion in damages.

We’re now, in fact, entering the heart of Atlantic hurricane season, which runs each year from June to November with peak season occurring right about now. And each decade the hurricanes get more plentiful and more damaging. For example, according to the North Atlantic hurricane database, or HURDAT, in the 1920s, there was only an average of 4.2 hurricanes per year. In the 2000–09 decade, by comparison, the average shot up to 7.4 per year. And virtually all of the most damaging hurricanes have occurred since 2000 (see table below).

Wrath! Every hurricane season results in ominous images in the financial press

Source: Bloomberg

Now the increase in hurricane severity and frequency is a result of global warming. But before the climate-change deniers clog the comments section, keep in mind that I don’t particularly care why they’re occurring more frequently or increasing in strength—my only concern is their possible effect on equity markets. Based on the prevalence of hurricane coverage in the financial press at this time each year (like the example above) you would think that hurricanes have enormous market impact. It’s now become an annual tradition to have a steady stream of terrifying satellite images and hurricane-tracker graphics come across the Bloomberg feed. In the end, Florence didn’t quite live up to the hype, despite the best efforts of this weather reporter:

https://www.cnn.com/videos/weather/2018/09/15/weatherman-criticized-for-being-overdramatic-hurricane-florence-lc-orig.cnn

In a few decades perhaps, more numerous and more massive hurricanes will actually influence equity markets, but for now, and historically, they matter little. Below I examine the 15 most damaging hurricanes in history and the performance of US equities three months and 1 year after. While challenging and often devastating for the areas struck, for the US stock market, hurricanes amount to sound and fury signifying nothing.

While hurricanes always make the financial news, they don’t actually impact markets

Source: Bloomberg, National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration, Turner Investments. Total return shown. Damages not adjusted for inflation.

The reason, of course, is that as damaging as hurricanes are locally, in the context of the overall US economy, they’re a drop in the bucket. Last year’s Hurricane Harvey, for example, the costliest hurricane in US history with an estimated US$125 billion in damages, still only amounted to about 0.6% of the US$19 trillion total US economy. So, while it may suck to be invested in, say, the insurance sector after a bad hurricane season, the market quickly recognizes that the impact on the overall economy is minimal and, ironically, the hurricanes may even provide economic stimulus as the rebuilding process begins (new houses, infrastructure, cars, etc.). So, equity markets quickly brush off hurricane season focusing instead on bigger issues such as overall corporate profitability, which does, in fact, meaningfully affect market direction.

Hurricanes make for great lead stories on the nightly news, but with the exception of short-term commodity traders and isolated sub-sectors, they—no matter how “tremendously wet” and powerful—don’t affect the market.

Scary, eye-of-the-hurricane satellite images can be quite misleading.

Doug Rowat, FCSI® is Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments and Senior Vice President, Private Client Group, Raymond James Ltd.

 

95 comments ↓

#1 Random Gibberish Man on 09.22.18 at 4:08 pm

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/21/on-monday-google-facebook-and-netflix-will-make-a-big-market-move.html

Market-leading companies including Alphabet, Facebook and Netflix are changing S&P 500 sectors on Monday, with big implications for investors who use technology, consumer discretionary and telecom index funds and ETFs.

The new S&P communications sector that replaces the telecom index will include these big technology stocks, changing the nature of what has been one of the market’s best defensive and highest-dividend yield stock strategies.

There also will be a reduction in the market weighting of the S&P technology sector in the S&P 500 index, but investors and market strategists remain skeptical that this reshuffling of widely held stocks will solve the problem of big tech’s outsized role in stock performance.

#2 SoggyShorts on 09.22.18 at 4:17 pm

I’m curious what the blog dogs think of my early retirement portfolio:

VCN…20% CDN All Cap
VRE…10% CDN REIT
XUU…20% US total market (CAD)
VTI…20% US total market (USD)
XEF…15% international
VEE…5% emerging
VIG…5% Dividend Growth
cash..5%

MER: 0.124%
Dividend Yield: 1.94%
The 5% cash plus dividends is enough for 3 years of living expenses(4% rule) in order to weather a bear market without having to sell holdings at the bottom.

This is why I’m not adding bonds in my portfolio. I may have a 50 year retirement(hopefully), and the drag on returns for bonds is too high IMO.

I was going with 40% XUU, but then thought I was missing the USD portion… Is VTI the simple fix for that?

#3 Newcomer on 09.22.18 at 4:18 pm

http://www.drroyspencer.com/2018/09/u-s-major-landfalling-hurricanes-down-50-since-the-1930s/

#4 Kim on 09.22.18 at 4:21 pm

First at last

#5 NoName on 09.22.18 at 4:36 pm

Hi Doug

Whats a deal with DJI volume spike on friday?
http://schrts.co/4Ka6nq

#6 jess on 09.22.18 at 4:43 pm

https://waterkeeper.org/news/

but what about those dam failures flooding the rivers and streams with pig poop /coal ash -environmental health hazard

There are more than 2,000 state-regulated dams in South Carolina, most of which are earthen dams on small lakes and ponds”, said Bill Stangler, Congaree Riverkeeper. In 2015, 50 dams around the state failed. The next year, another 20 regulated dams failed during Hurricane Matthew.

Waterkeeper Organizations in the state, along with local allies, have pushed for dam safety reform. But, so far, those efforts have been rebuffed by special interests, led by South Carolina Farm Bureau.

Following a coal ash spill at Duke Energy’s L.V. Sutton Power Plant, Cape Fear Riverkeeper Kemp Burdette assessed the area by motorboat on Friday, Sept. 21 and released the following statement:

“Coal ash will be in the floodwaters of downtown Wilmington shortly. The coal ash ponds, Sutton Lake, and the Cape Fear river are now one. This was an entirely avertable tragedy that Duke Energy could have prevented. We will all be paying for this disaster for years to come.”

#7 Russ on 09.22.18 at 4:54 pm

Hi Doug,

If Katrina caused 125 B dollars in damages way back in 2005 then every hurricane since then is a bargain, in regards to S&P 500, from that time onwards.

I don’t get the Global Warming connection here.
Of course there were less hurricanes in the 1920s, many would have been unknown, since then the reporting mediums have come a long way.
Is it perhaps an incomplete data set or bad modelling?

Cheers, R

#8 DaleFromCalgary on 09.22.18 at 4:55 pm

Before you write about how disasters “provide economic stimulus”, you should read up on the broken window fallacy. Frederic Bastiat disposed of that idea in 1850 in his famous essay “Ce qu’on voit et ce qu’on ne voit pas” (“That Which We See and That Which We Do Not See”) .

#9 Long-Time Lurker on 09.22.18 at 5:15 pm

#2 Soggyshorts.

That looks kind of risky. That’s like an 85% equity allocation even if it’s internationally hedged. A global economic downturn lasting more than three years in the future would hamstring your portfolio especially with your fifty year time frame.

You could increase your cash allocation or add short term bonds or short term cash instruments but they are underperforming currently.

You’re taking a risk with so much equity for such a long time frame. How long did the US Great Recession last?

I think the VTI acts as a USDCAD hedge but I didn’t look up VTI.

Maybe Doug can give you his expert opinion if you compliment him? It works with Garth.

By the way, consistently good writing, Doug, Ryan and Garth. (hee hee)

#10 Barb on 09.22.18 at 5:22 pm

Hurricanes are certainly good for Canadian lumber and plywood producers…

oh wait…having successfully fought–and won–the countervailing duty issue twice in recent history, Canadian producers are at the mercy of TTs…Trump Tariffs.

#11 Crazyfox on 09.22.18 at 5:22 pm

If I might borrow some words from president Donald Trump, “Climate change is nothing more than a Chinese hoax to make money by the Chinese”. Extrapolated, “the haze you thought was smoke coming from BC’s second worst fire season and California’s worst ever isn’t actually smoke and falsely reported as fake news. Its just a haze caused by an accumulation of moisture, nothing more. Your irritated lungs and throat are all in your head. What you are experiencing isn’t caused by climate change and certainly not man made.”

Disclaimer: this message is sponsored by The Heritage Foundation, Americans for Prosperity, the Cato Institute, Freedom Partners, Manhattan Institute and many more like us who are against any efforts to fight climate change in any way, shape or form including the discouragement of green technology used as a replacement for fossil fuels. Take one guess as to who funds our work as well as donates over 40% of the Republican party donations in one way or another for Whitehouse, Congress, Senate and governor re-elections in effect controlling Republican policy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B6zSy5lAxd0

#12 Long-Time Lurker on 09.22.18 at 5:33 pm

Vomiting weed vapers!

https://pittsburgh.cbslocal.com/2018/09/21/cannabinoid-hyperemesis-syndrome-emergency-room/

#13 Victor V on 09.22.18 at 5:39 pm

#88 Rodger Campbell on 09.22.18 at 4:22 pm
Where do you pull your BoC rate hike odds from?

—————-
—————-

https://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/wrapup-1-canada-inflation-still-well-above-target-rate-hike-seen-likely

Market expectations of an interest rate hike in October, as reflected in the overnight index swaps market, rose to 88.74 per cent from 84.46 per cent before the release of the inflation data.

#14 For those about to flop... on 09.22.18 at 6:01 pm

What this thread needs is some Flopper magic…

M44BC

“The Economic Cost of Mother Nature’s Destructive Fury in U.S.
Hawaii’s Kilauea volcano is now threatening to destroy more homes, forcing the authorities to order a mandatory evacuation for additional neighborhoods. There’s no telling when the volcano will finally stop, but it has already destroyed 82 structures. That means we will have to wait assess the final cost of damages, but it got us thinking about the most expensive natural disasters in American history.

We found the numbers for our visualization from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which tracks the frequency of natural disasters, their total property damage and the resulting number of deaths. The numbers represent cumulative damage from each category of natural disaster between 1980 to 2017. NOAA has its own sophisticated methodology for how it accounts for these figures. They include both insured and uninsured losses that would not have happened had such an event not taken place. Of course, there’s considerable uncertainty involved in any such counterfactual estimate, but the research is backed by career scientists and economists with a sophisticated understanding of statistics. See here for a detailed description of NOAA’s methodology.

Our Voronoi diagram actually tells a compelling story. For starters, hurricanes loom large as the catastrophic events causing by far the most damage over the last 37 years, totaling an astonishing $850.5B. Hurricane season is upon us again, and sure enough Hurricane Florencehas the Carolinas in its crosshairs this week. And let’s not forget Hawaii, which just got through Hurricane Lane and is now facing another tropical storm in Olivia. The City of Houston meanwhile is still struggling to recover from an insane amount of damage from Hurricane Harvey. All of this suggests that hurricane damage has been and will continue to be a perennial challenge in the US.

One surprise in our visualization is how small the damage caused by wildfires ($53.6B) is compared to droughts ($236.6B). The media spends a significant amount of time covering fires, and rightly so—they are truly terrifying events to witness. California is still suffering from the Mendocino Complex wildfire, the largest ever. A separate fire even closed Interstate 5, forcing truckers to abandon from their vehicles. To put it crudely, crops withering in the field isn’t as compelling of a story as compared to the dramatic photos of houses bursting in flames.

Want to learn more? Check out our other visualization covering the most expensive natural disasters in the US over the last 40 years.”

17 September 2018

Visualizations.

This article

https://howmuch.net/articles/the-cost-of-natural-disaster-in-the-united-states

Previous related article

https://howmuch.net/articles/most-expensive-naturals-disasters-in-usa

#15 Damifino on 09.22.18 at 6:03 pm

In 1900, The deadliest huricane in US history wiped Galveston, Texas off the map. There were many thousands of fatalities. Even Canada was seriously affected by this monster when it tracked north. It was beyond nasty. At the time, nobody blamed global warming…

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1900_Galveston_hurricane

#16 dakkie on 09.22.18 at 6:14 pm

Americans and Canadian MASSIVE Debt IMPOSSIBLE To Ever Pay Back, Now Even Worse!

http://www.investmentwatchblog.com/americans-and-canadian-massive-debt-impossible-to-ever-pay-back-now-even-worse/

#17 conan on 09.22.18 at 6:16 pm

Re # 6

Yep, coal ash is Poisonous. That river is broken for years.

Re # 7
Man made Climate change is real. We needed to listen to the scientists when they first spoke up in the 1970’s.
All you’ve to do is believe what NASA is saying.

#18 Doug Rowat on 09.22.18 at 6:29 pm

#7 Russ on 09.22.18 at 4:54 pm

Hi Doug,

I don’t get the Global Warming connection here.

There’s a disproportionate amount of hurricane coverage in the financial press relative to the hurricanes’ actual market impact. (I know, because I have to stare at the newsfeeds all day.) That was my point.

I’m not Al Gore.

–Doug

#19 Frustrated Kiwi on 09.22.18 at 7:04 pm

#3 Newcomer

Went to that site. Despite the author drawing a trend line where none exists, the main thing to conclude is that there is a lot of variance in # of hurricanes to make landfall in the US. Then, quoting from the comments section of that page from someone called Nate:

“Not limiting to land-falling in CONUS, these are the numbers of majors by decade (starting year). The last decade scaled by 10/8.7 to account for 8.7 instead of 10 seasons.
1930 22
1940 20
1950 29
1960 28
1970 16
1980 17
1990 25
2000 36
2010 30
The trend is positive with slope 1.0/decade.
Data from wikipedia.”

#20 Stealth on 09.22.18 at 7:13 pm

Any ultra short effect on the market, e.g.days during the hurricane?

#21 Ace Goodheart on 09.22.18 at 7:19 pm

Well Ottawa just got a tornado.

And Trump has apparently convinced the world that his lies about Canada having a trade surplus with the USA (We Don’t) are actually true and that Canada needs NAFTA and must sign on no matter what the consequences (We Don’t and we won’t) and that he has accomplished great things by signing a trade deal with Mexico (I hear He’s headed down to Belize next week to negotiate an historic accord with them next).

So while we all wait with baited breath while the US President negotiates trade deals with third world countries while attacking his allies, perhaps a sobering thought:

Amazon: currently priced at 151 times its earnings and an incredible 26.89 times its book value (This includes good will folks) operates in Canada.

We lose many retail stores each year due to Amazon.

They recently opened an office in Toronto and are recruiting. Slightly less than $16.00 per hour.

This is what our govt is fighting to protect folks.

Crap jobs offered by US companies operating on our soil.

When Trump says he’ll tax Canadian car companies he actually means he’ll tax US car companies. There are no Canadian car companies.

He wants to tax his own industries for the crime of operating here.

I say let him. Get rid of NAFTA

tell the Americans to go eff themselves.

Seriously are we a country or not?

#22 Dolce Vita on 09.22.18 at 7:21 pm

#8 DaleFromCalgary

Mercifully and soon after Mr. Bastiat, along came Mr. Schumpeter to give us:

Creative Destruction.

Schumpeter would have assumed that somebody would eventually get fed up with sharp shards of or shattering glass and come up with something new and better (and more productive).

Someone’s lost opportunity is another’s new found opportunity:

Corning’s Pyrex and GE’s Lexan.

If life were Zero Sum thinking, then credit would not exist.

#23 RICK on 09.22.18 at 7:31 pm

“But before the climate-change deniers clog the comments section, keep in mind that I don’t particularly care why they’re occurring more frequently ” WRONG. there were twice as many hurricanes in the 1930s, 1940s and 1950s. Do your homework. Hope you manage money better than your claims of climate change!

#24 Dolce Vita on 09.22.18 at 7:33 pm

On the subject of the effects of Acts of God upon financial markets, what about a Full Moon and October’s?

#25 Smoking Man on 09.22.18 at 7:41 pm

We live in a world of bull shit. Truth happens at the go pool at the flamingo. Boobs and tight bottoms. And a handsom beast, me. With the biggest beer belly in the world. Built in pillow if you have an imagination..

Shit faced pool peeing people. Love them..

Linked in .. Dogs bent over on there knees.

#26 Greg on 09.22.18 at 7:50 pm

“My only concern is their possible effect on equity markets.” Doug your a twit.

#27 Nonplused on 09.22.18 at 8:04 pm

“…the hurricanes may even provide economic stimulus as the rebuilding process begins (new houses, infrastructure, cars, etc.)”

Uh oh the broken window fallacy rears it’s ugly head again. If breaking things was really good for the economy then the logical thing to do would be to pay all the unemployed people to wreck stuff. It doesn’t make any sense at all. Strangely this fallacy simply doesn’t want to go away even though it’s been thoroughly refuted.

Hurricane damage can cause a boost to GDP given the way we measure it, but it is destructive to wealth. That is why the air force and the airlines fly their planes away from the storms. When they say something like “$25 billion in damages” they mean the US is $25 billion poorer because $25 billion worth of stuff just got wrecked. That may sound significant but contrast it to Apple which is worth $1 trillion all by itself, so it is survivable. A cost of doing business if you will. But it is a step in the wrong direction. If your teenager throws a party while you are out of town and his friends trash the place you are poorer as a result regardless that you having to buy new furniture is good for IKEA. There will be that much less money in your TFSA that could have been spent on something else, like a vacation or a bottle of whisky.

In a like manner, planed obsolescence isn’t good for the economy either. Having to scrap a car after 15 years because it’s rusted out might be good for Ford but it isn’t good for you. That’s money you could have spent on other things. Likewise having to buy a new cell phone every 2-3 years is slowly and silently bankrupting the middle class (especially since the kids all need one too). I realize there is some economic calculation that needs to be done when considering whether measures to make cars last longer like zinc coating the body make sense economically based on NPV, but the current trend is to make everything as cheap as possible and replace as much steel with plastic as they can. Also in the name of efficiency they are slapping electronics on everything, even fridges! But those control cards have a very high failure rate and are priced such that it often isn’t worth it to replace it, just get a new fridge. That’s more money that you don’t have to spend on something else and I doubt the energy saved by the control card makes up for the energy required to produce the new fridge. I have a 34 year old Sub Zero that is still ticking along just fine. The only thing that has gone wrong with it is ice maker broke. Know why? No electronics. Fridges that you buy these days are not expected to still be in service 34 years from now they are expected to last 10 years on average. Actually I think the Norge in the basement is also 34 years old and it’s still working too, also no electronics. The ice maker in that one quit too but I didn’t get it fixed I only need one. Prior to buying this house my wife bought a fancy Sears fridge with all the electronics and the control card went pretty much the week after the warranty expired. Luckily we had an empty suite in the basement with, surprise surprise! another old fridge with no electronics we were able to move all the food to.

Broken windows and planned obsolescence are wealth destroyers not builders when looked at from the perspective of net wealth rather than simple GDP. Even when viewed through the rather simple lens of GDP they don’t add much, the money would have been invested or spent on something else, both of which are more productive than replacing stuff you already had. Anybody that’s ever had their bike stolen or left a teenager at home alone for the weekend understands this but many economists do not.

Whenever possible, buy things that are built to last. Filling up the landfill with cheap stuff is not the best use of your money. And don’t build your house on a flood plain.

#28 crossborder shopper on 09.22.18 at 8:07 pm

even with bad weather. America is the best country in the world, its where the action is.

#29 islander on 09.22.18 at 8:07 pm

From LLoyd’s:

“Scientific research points conclusively to the existence of climate change driven by human activity.”

https://www.lloyds.com/news-and-risk-insight/risk-reports/library/natural-environment/catastrophe-modelling-and-climate-change

“It is virtually certain that since the 1970s there has been an increase in the frequency and intensity of the strongest tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin.”

“Catastrophe modelling technology is now used extensively by insurers, reinsurers, governments, capital markets and other financial entities. “

#30 BS on 09.22.18 at 8:39 pm

29 islander on 09.22.18 at 8:07 pm
From LLoyd’s:

“Catastrophe modelling technology is now used extensively by insurers, reinsurers, governments, capital markets and other financial entities. “

It is used to justify higher rates, higher fees, new taxes or higher taxes. Hilarious people fall for this stuff.

The climate has been changing for ever. Some of the change is good, some bad. Just ask the dinosaurs. Nothing you can do about it. Paying a tax won’t help.

#31 Tony on 09.22.18 at 8:41 pm

Re: #2 SoggyShorts on 09.22.18 at 4:17 pm

With the lofty values of the markets don’t plan on retiring any time soon. Everything will seem to ride on how long Trump stays in office.

#32 Tony on 09.22.18 at 8:43 pm

Re: #5 NoName on 09.22.18 at 4:36 pm

Quadruple witching hour.

#33 Larry1 on 09.22.18 at 8:48 pm

“My only concern is their possible effect on equity markets.”

Profit before people/life/earth is what I read of this.
You twit just lost my respect. But this is what the CFA preaches about ethics as I understand.

#34 DaleFromCalgary on 09.22.18 at 8:51 pm

re: #22 by Dolce Vita

I’m familiar with Schumpeter’s creative destruction but it has nothing to do with the broken window fallacy. It refers to the replacement of one industry, product, or service by another kind.

If a hurricane smashes a window that costs $200 to replace, it does not create $200 in economic stimulus. The glazier makes $200, but the value of capital goods, ie, the total value of all windows, has decreased $200 because that broken window must be deleted from the nation’s capital goods.

Further, the $200 would have been spent on something else had the window not been broken. Perhaps instead of upgrading to a new smartphone, the homeowner will make do with the old one for another year.

As Bastiat explained in his famous essay, that which is seen is the broken window and the money spent on its replacement. That which is not seen is the loss of a perfectly good window and the reduction in spending on other things.

As an example, I doubt financial advisors will do as much business in the Carolinas over the next few years as they would have without the hurricane. Insurance doesn’t cover everything, and those coastal dwellers are not now in the mood to hear about balanced portfolios.

#35 Doug Rowat on 09.22.18 at 8:52 pm

#23 RICK on 09.22.18 at 7:31 pm

“But before the climate-change deniers clog the comments section, keep in mind that I don’t particularly care why they’re occurring more frequently ” WRONG. there were twice as many hurricanes in the 1930s, 1940s and 1950s. Do your homework. Hope you manage money better than your claims of climate change!

You’ll have to ask the hundreds of families who we’ve carefully being serving for years.

–Doug

#36 Doug Rowat on 09.22.18 at 9:10 pm

#20 Stealth on 09.22.18 at 7:13 pm

Any ultra short effect on the market, e.g.days during the hurricane?

Not at all how we invest. But, regardless, how would you play this with any precision? Short the market and then just hope that the hurricane turns out to be more damaging than expected? Have a view of the quality of infrastructure in the area that may or may not be hit and then hope that it fails? An impossible (and, frankly, morbid) task.

–Doug

#37 Chik Norris on 09.22.18 at 9:21 pm

“so elected poohbahs can rush by in black Yukons” From Garth’s vehicular dig yesterday. I envisage Garth cruising around Ottawa in his heyday in a Ddoge Ram while wearing a lumberjack shirt and giving the finger to other drivers in the Yukons. Kind of a Northern version of Walker Texas Ranger.

#38 Frederick Ponsonby on 09.22.18 at 9:29 pm

Dougie,

Surprised you would fall for the PC climate change nonsense. It is the same league as Agenda 21, UN resolution to “promote” sustainable development, i.e. a plot to subjugate humanity under an eco-totalitarian regime.

#39 garry galvex on 09.22.18 at 9:33 pm

#15 Damifino on 09.22.18 at 6:03 pm

In 1900, The deadliest huricane in US history wiped Galveston, Texas off the map. ”

Glen Campbell made a fortune off that with his hit single “Galveston”, so the hurricane generated millions in economic development, albeit 70 years later in the music industry

#40 TRUMP on 09.22.18 at 9:36 pm

DOUG – Read 1st sentence of 3rd paragraph and couldn’t read anymore. Looks like you drank the global warming Kool-Aid.

If global warming is a natural phenomenon then I buy it. But if were going to talk about humans causing it then that is complete B.S.

The entire solar system and the planets within it are changing all the time….guess what – no humans out there.

There was an ice-age, massive earthquakes, volcanoes, and mega-storms before humans were even a gleam in the eye of the creator on this planet earth.

Our solar system works of cycles…..hence 4 seasons. And it will continue to do so millions of years after humans no longer exist. It’s rinse – tumble – repeat over and over again.

If you want to share some real investment advice let us know what insurance companies we should be investing in on account of the storm.

#41 FATLADY on 09.22.18 at 9:38 pm

THE ONLY PROBLEM WITH THE CLIMATE IS THAT HUMAN’S ARE IN IT’S WAY!!!!

#42 Gravy Train on 09.22.18 at 9:41 pm

Donald Trump helpfully alerted the locals to the hurricane’s dangers by noting that it would be “tremendously wet”. Trump doesn’t always have a firm grasp of the obvious (you shouldn’t stare directly at the sun during an eclipse, for example)[…] — Doug Rowat

For your amusement, Doug, here are some more of Trump’s beauties:
• “This is a tough hurricane. One of the wettest we’ve ever seen from the standpoint of water.”
• “Rarely have we had an experience like it and it’s certainly not good.”
• “It’s tremendously big and tremendously wet.”

#43 Lead Paint on 09.22.18 at 9:50 pm

#15 Damifino on 09.22.18 at 6:03 pm

Of course death tolls from large hurricanes were higher before satellite technology could be used to warn people to evacuate, or buildings were built to withstand hem.

#44 odious herodias on 09.22.18 at 9:53 pm

Ryan, you’re pumping mud, “And each decade the hurricanes get more plentiful and more damaging”

The last decade has been virtually silent in terms of hurricanes. And the last 50 years?? See Joe’s figures:

https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1040206533425065984

#45 Lead Paint on 09.22.18 at 9:57 pm

Doug, glad you stated unequivocally that global warming is responsible for these increased hurricanes. While you will get attacked, look on the bright side, you’ll get more comments than Ryan.

I assume your comment about ‘not caring ‘ pertains to this article or your investment strategy, not about the people impacted or the environmental destruction associated with man made climate change.

#46 Al on 09.22.18 at 10:11 pm

Soggy Shorts, your 5% cash holdings will increases your chance of portfolio failure, the forgone gains are just too great to be overcome by the avoidance of selling at the bottom. How do you plan to successfully and consistently time the cash deployment to avoid selling “at the bottom”? Its a fools errand. Stay invested and leave the timing to the pros who get paid to play with other peeps’ money and get paid either way.

#47 Leo Trollstoy on 09.22.18 at 10:14 pm

You’ll have to ask the hundreds of families who we’ve carefully being serving for years.

–Doug

Thank goodness cuz you’re clearly not careful about hurricane data lol

#48 Asterix1 on 09.22.18 at 10:19 pm

#4 Kim on 09.22.18 at 4:21 pm
First at last
____________________________________________

It’s time to ban anyone who says #1 and is not for at least a year.

You cant just drop “I’m #1” and end up in second place or worse! It’s a gamble, just like RE market.

Lets make this interesting!

#49 oneheroz on 09.22.18 at 10:49 pm

#47 Asterix1 on 09.22.18 at 10:19 pm
It’s time to ban anyone who says #1 and is not for at least a year.”

I am pre-number 1! I am posting this as a comment to tomorrow’s yet to be published blog post, so that in effect, I am pre-number 1. Would this posting gambit run afoul of your totalitarian proposal or am I still good?

#50 Fish on 09.22.18 at 11:12 pm

about broken things do you have any idea the cost of putting a waterline in, and burry it , Expensive, as I do know,
I had to replace an entire line which 500 feet of hose required to complete it, was very painful job to do,
, and if you live in the boondocks even more,

If you live in the boondocks in the winter you are going to need heating for your waterline,

And say you want to barrier that line 6 feet under even more work and hydro to keep it flowing, if you get the drift,

#51 Doug Rowat on 09.22.18 at 11:26 pm

#46 Leo Trollstoy on 09.22.18 at 10:14 pm

You’ll have to ask the hundreds of families who we’ve carefully being serving for years.

–Doug

Thank goodness cuz you’re clearly not careful about hurricane data lol

I source all of it and don’t snipe from the safety of anonymity. You?

–Doug

#52 Doug Rowat on 09.22.18 at 11:39 pm

#44 Lead Paint on 09.22.18 at 9:57 pm

Doug, glad you stated unequivocally that global warming is responsible for these increased hurricanes. While you will get attacked, look on the bright side, you’ll get more comments than Ryan.

I assume your comment about ‘not caring ‘ pertains to this article or your investment strategy, not about the people impacted or the environmental destruction associated with man made climate change.

Correct. I care about potential market impact because client assets, which I want to protect, are all I have influence over. Hurricane damage? Not so much.

–Doug

#53 A NATION OF SUCKERS on 09.22.18 at 11:40 pm

Before humans…….major climate change.

As humans roam the earth…..major climate change.

After humans………major climate change.

The ice age happened without humans, the earth broke apart and created 7 continents without humans. The 4 seasons like clockwork happen without humans. Humans especially CFA holders take too much credit for what happens on earth.

Guess what….humans or not, its gonna happen.

Even the Big Bang happened without humans.

#54 REALLY?? on 09.22.18 at 11:50 pm

This blog recognizes value in a useless “First” comment but if you call out the author and express a view you have that contradicts their ideology then your comment doesn’t get posted.

SHAME!!

Your change-denier comment was, in fact, posted. Now run off and drain the swamp. – Garth

#55 AsiaKid on 09.22.18 at 11:53 pm

I thought I was the only one who thought Doug was always trying a bit too hard and making one too many assumptions using book smarts.

Then I read the messages.

Nope, I definitely ain’t the only one who senses he just isn’t as sharp as his number one.

#56 Stealth on 09.23.18 at 12:39 am

Thanks for responding Doug.
I was not implying anything, question was about your second to last paragraph pointing out commodity trading and sub sectors. I did not understand, perhaps an example would suffice.
Rest of the article is well supported except this area.

Thank you.

#36 Doug Rowat on 09.22.18 at 9:10 pm
#20 Stealth on 09.22.18 at 7:13 pm

Any ultra short effect on the market, e.g.days during the hurricane?

Not at all how we invest. But, regardless, how would you play this with any precision? Short the market and then just hope that the hurricane turns out to be more damaging than expected? Have a view of the quality of infrastructure in the area that may or may not be hit and then hope that it fails? An impossible (and, frankly, morbid) task.

–Doug

#57 Nonplused on 09.23.18 at 1:40 am

#47 Asterix1

I think it would be tough for Garth to ban anyone because all you have to do is change your handle and use a spoof email address. The alternative would be for him to use a registered comments section but I think he spends enough time on this thing already!

#58 SoggyShorts on 09.23.18 at 2:56 am

#45 Al on 09.22.18 at 10:11 pm
Soggy Shorts, your 5% cash holdings will increases your chance of portfolio failure, the forgone gains are just too great to be overcome by the avoidance of selling at the bottom. How do you plan to successfully and consistently time the cash deployment to avoid selling “at the bottom”? Its a fools errand. Stay invested and leave the timing to the pros who get paid to play with other peeps’ money and get paid either way.

****************************
The biggest risk an early retirement portfolio faces is starting in a bear. If I’m fully invested and the first years are bad while I pull 4% out to live I may not recover.

There’s no need to time the market with 5% starting cash it’s just a simple checkup at the end of the year:
♦ If the rest of my portfolio is down or even from where it started, then I started with, then I use the cash to live on until that is no longer true.
♦ If the portfolio goes up, I won’t add more cash, I’ll just ignore the cash and withdraw a little to live on from my gains.

I do not plan to keep it at 5%, but rather to keep it at 3 years of expenses.
Perhaps I should adjust the numbers and simply not include the 3 years expenses in the list since the “5%” is misleading

#9 Long-Time Lurker on 09.22.18 at 5:15 pm
Thank you for taking a look. I’ve been reading and reading but it seems to me like every calculator I find shows a higher probability of success with higher equity portfolios(at least 75%)

#31 Tony on 09.22.18 at 8:41 pm
There’s a fairly decent chance that I’ll chicken out and work 1-2 extra years in order to save up a much fatter safety cushion….

#59 Gravy Train on 09.23.18 at 7:36 am

#56 SoggyShorts on 09.23.18 at 2:56 am
“There’s a fairly decent chance that I’ll chicken out and work 1-2 extra years in order to save up a much fatter safety cushion….”. When you get to be my age, you’ll discover that time is much more valuable than money! :)

#60 Gravy Train on 09.23.18 at 8:55 am

Doug, I omitted this beauty from my previous list:
“At least you got a nice boat out of the deal.[…] I think it’s just incredible what we’re seeing. This boat just came here. They don’t know whose boat that is. What’s the law? Maybe it becomes theirs.” — Donald Trump

You just can’t make this stuff up! Is this the ‘finders keepers’ rule of law? Everything Trump learned in life he learned on the playground! :)

#61 KLNR on 09.23.18 at 8:59 am

Doug, it’s officially clogged.

#62 Rob on 09.23.18 at 9:04 am

“Gravy Train”

You ridicule a man that has kicked the American economy into high gear?

Would you rather have an inept socialist that flies all over the country wasting taxpayer money, messing up business deals and dragging our economy into the toilet?

O that’s right you and your incompetent bungling socialist brethren probably do.

I call on all Canadians to purge this chaff and build a prosperous country. It’s time to rid ourselves of those that contously try to ruin our nation!

Maybe gravy train can pay for some of Justin’s plane flights?

#63 dharma bum on 09.23.18 at 9:26 am

This the real story of the hurricane:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=piEl-dHGuRk

#64 Gravy Train on 09.23.18 at 9:46 am

#62 Rob on 09.23.18 at 9:04 am
“You ridicule a man that has kicked the American economy into high gear?” All I did was write down what Trump said! His ridiculousness is of his own making. :)

#65 Remembrancer on 09.23.18 at 9:52 am

#10 Barb on 09.22.18 at 5:22 pm
Hurricanes are certainly good for Canadian lumber and plywood producers…

oh wait…having successfully fought–and won–the countervailing duty issue twice in recent history, Canadian producers are at the mercy of TTs…Trump Tariffs.
—————————————————————
Sure, though Econ 101 says as soon as the local NC/SC market runs out of wood that a) wasn’t already bought to prepare for the storm or b) wasn’t damaged and unusable afterwards, then there’s a draw from other sources, if that exceeds US national capacity and demand then more is imported at a higher price, from say Canada. Your Trump Tariffs then impact the little people by making lumber more expense driving up their costs, their insurance costs etc while their gov collects more taxes from ultimately themselves #MAGA!

BTW, I’d love to see what’s already been collected in terms of tariffs by sector, where that money is going, etc etc… #TariffWarProfiteers #TariffsRTaxes

#66 KLNR on 09.23.18 at 9:57 am

@#60 Gravy Train on 09.23.18 at 8:55 am
Doug, I omitted this beauty from my previous list:
“At least you got a nice boat out of the deal.[…] I think it’s just incredible what we’re seeing. This boat just came here. They don’t know whose boat that is. What’s the law? Maybe it becomes theirs.” — Donald Trump

You just can’t make this stuff up! Is this the ‘finders keepers’ rule of law? Everything Trump learned in life he learned on the playground! :)
_________________________________
hahahaha, trump may be a lousy human being but he sure is a great entertainer. who knew the whitehouse as reality tv could be this fun/ny.

#67 Remembrancer on 09.23.18 at 10:34 am

#60 Gravy Train on 09.23.18 at 8:55 am
You just can’t make this stuff up! Is this the ‘finders keepers’ rule of law? Everything Trump learned in life he learned on the playground! :)
——————————————————————-
You can add Maritime Salvage Laws to the list of things he doesn’t know squat about. Or he’s a pirate too…

#68 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.23.18 at 10:51 am

Was in an Air Canada plane yesterday from YHZ to YYC.
5.5 hour flight.
Airbus 319M
No TV’s.
No power portals for computors, phones, tablets or earphones.
Nothing.
And it looked like a new plane.
In 45 years of flying I have never seen anything so stupid.
A sign of things to come?

But we did have 6 children under the age of 4 !
5 of the 6 screamed non stop from Halifax to Calgary.
It was awesome.
All the parents ignored their brats while the stewardesses should have been given the Order of Canada for trying to entertain the wailing ones.
They had some success but the others just kept on screaming.
The sound of a dentist drill couldnt have been more effective on the brain.

Thank you Air Canada for not providing any access to alternate sources of distraction.
185 passengers paying $400 + per seat were livid.
Well done.
Air Canada saved a few bucks by not installing tv’s and lost god only knows how many customers from that one flight.
And now I get to tell thousands of other potential customers how stupid they are……..

As one passenger quipped upon leaving the flight.
“Air Canada’s new motto……
We’re not happy until you’re not happy.”

Open skies and Deregulation cant come soon enough.

#69 Evangeline on 09.23.18 at 11:03 am

#49 oneheroz on 09.22.18 at 10:49 pm

“I am pre-number 1! I am posting this as a comment to tomorrow’s yet to be published blog post, so that in effect, I am pre-number 1 … ”

very funny … thanks for the laugh!

#70 conan on 09.23.18 at 11:20 am

Re 62

I also think he inherited Obama’s economy. FFS, Obama started with what Bush left him.
Trump’s tax cuts are going right on the deficit. Not one job is being created because of the tax cuts. Ask any rich person, they only create jobs if there is work to do. Tax rates are secondary.

#71 Shawn Allen on 09.23.18 at 11:28 am

GDP is obviously not a perfect measure

Nonplused at 27 is of course correct when he says:

Hurricane damage can cause a boost to GDP given the way we measure it, but it is destructive to wealth.

*****************************************
First GDP attempts to measure economic activity in a given period of time and is is not in any way a direct measure of wealth. A portion of GDP always gets used up replacing worn out stuff and in some years I suppose more stuff gets worn out / destroyed. GDP does not adjust for that.

Second, GDP as an attempt to measure economic value added in a period has always been an imperfect measure. I don’t think it even tries to measure unpaid work. A part of the big rise in real GDP per capita in the past 75 years surely came from a lot of unpaid work (child care, home cleaning and a lot of entertainment) moving from the unpaid and uncounted category to the world of paid and tracked. I suspect that more of the economy was cash and untracked years ago as well compared to today. In any case GDP was never a perfect measure, but is probably the best available measure of value added.

#72 Bytor the Snow Dog on 09.23.18 at 11:32 am

#42 Gravy Train on 09.22.18 at 9:41 pm sez:

• “It’s tremendously big and tremendously wet.”
———————————————————–
Trump is describing you while you indulge your obsession with him. ;-)

#73 Shawn Allen on 09.23.18 at 11:38 am

Protect ‘us’ from Amazon

Ace Goodheart at 21 complains

We lose many retail stores each year due to Amazon.

They recently opened an office in Toronto and are recruiting. Slightly less than $16.00 per hour.

This is what our govt is fighting to protect folks.

Crap jobs offered by US companies operating on our soil.

****************************************
Oh, did “we” own those retail stores that Amazon caused to close? A lot of the population does not and did not own a retail store or shares in a retail store.

Canadians do not form a collective “we” when it comes to economics. You are on your own. Others are not on your team that way. This is one of the key essences of a relatively free country. Free to succeed. Free to fail.

Canadians are free to invest in and own Amazon. It has always looked way too expensive on a P/E basis but it seems that was a misleading signal.

Amazon provides products at a lower cost. That is a huge benefit to Canadian consumers. Now they should be taxed on the same basis as a Canadian competitor and if they were not that can be fixed.

And you are complaining that Amazon is providing jobs at $16 per hour to people who want the work? Seems like a good thing.

#74 KLNR on 09.23.18 at 12:00 pm

@#68 Shawn Allen on 09.23.18 at 11:38 am
Protect ‘us’ from Amazon

Ace Goodheart at 21 complains

We lose many retail stores each year due to Amazon.

They recently opened an office in Toronto and are recruiting. Slightly less than $16.00 per hour.

This is what our govt is fighting to protect folks.

Crap jobs offered by US companies operating on our soil.

****************************************
Oh, did “we” own those retail stores that Amazon caused to close? A lot of the population does not and did not own a retail store or shares in a retail store.

Canadians do not form a collective “we” when it comes to economics. You are on your own. Others are not on your team that way. This is one of the key essences of a relatively free country. Free to succeed. Free to fail.

Canadians are free to invest in and own Amazon. It has always looked way too expensive on a P/E basis but it seems that was a misleading signal.

Amazon provides products at a lower cost. That is a huge benefit to Canadian consumers. Now they should be taxed on the same basis as a Canadian competitor and if they were not that can be fixed.

And you are complaining that Amazon is providing jobs at $16 per hour to people who want the work? Seems like a good thing.
______________

folks are afraid of the future. Best start future proofing your job skilss now.
Bricks and mortar retail, car manufacturing and jobs like shipping/truck driving won’t be around much longer.

#75 Stan Brooks on 09.23.18 at 12:22 pm

A dozen doughnuts at Tim Horton’s.

Used to be 5.99 3 years ago now is 9.95.
66 % increase in exactly 3 years.

And inflation is sub 2 % yearly.

Sure.

#76 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.23.18 at 12:29 pm

Wars and disasters have always been good for the money lenders.
Wake me when you have something original to say.

#77 Stan Brooks on 09.23.18 at 12:33 pm

#71 Shawn Allen on 09.23.18 at 11:28 am

In any case GDP was never a perfect measure, but is probably the best available measure of value added.

===============================

No way. Our GDP is 2 trillions and we increase our debt by 400 billions early.

GNP – (minus) Debt is the best indicator for net economic output.

#78 NoName on 09.23.18 at 12:52 pm

#68 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.23.18 at 10:51 am
Was in an Air Canada plane yesterday from YHZ to YYC.
5.5 hour flight.
Airbus 319M
No TV’s.
No power portals for computors, phones, tablets or earphones.
Nothing.
And it looked like a new plane.
In 45 years of flying I have never seen anything so stupid.
A sign of things to come?

Wait until they incorporate standing “seats” with all that. I don’t fly often but after what AC did to me and my 1yold, i go out of my way to pay someone more just not fly with AC.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/news/skyrider-standing-plane-seats-future-of-budget-flying/

I hope no man experience any turboolance with those standing seats, because if they do squiky voice is guarantied.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YgxMQs12s5M

#79 Shawn Allen on 09.23.18 at 1:13 pm

Airline passengers are getting what they apparently want:

Crowded Elevator Farts at 68 complained about Air Canada:

“Was in an Air Canada plane yesterday from YHZ to YYC.
5.5 hour flight.
Airbus 319M
No TV’s.
No power portals for computors, phones, tablets or earphones.

185 passengers paying $400 + per seat were livid.
Well done.

**********************************
That is awful and stupid, i agree. I am not sure I should believe there was no place to plug in a phone. That is the standard these days. The TV’s are gone or going and you bring your own phone / device.

But I blame the passengers to an extent for lousy crowded conditions. Most passengers choose the cheapest flight. Air passengers have zero loyalty and can be counted on to choose the cheapest flight. Hence we have long had a race to the cheapest service possible. People are getting what they voted for with their wallets.

$400 to be whisked several thousand miles? Compare that to the cost and time of driving. It’s an amazing bargain.

#80 Gravy Train on 09.23.18 at 1:19 pm

#66 KLNR on 09.23.18 at 9:57 am
“hahahaha, trump may be a lousy human being but he sure is a great entertainer. who knew the whitehouse as reality tv could be this fun/ny.”. I do admit that Trump gives me at least one good belly laugh a day!

#67 Remembrancer on 09.23.18 at 10:34 am
“You can add Maritime Salvage Laws to the list of things [Trump] doesn’t know squat about. Or he’s a pirate too…” Trump proves the old adage: The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits! :)

#72 Bytor the Snow Dog on 09.23.18 at 11:32 am
“Trump is describing you while you indulge your obsession with him. ;-)” Who’s doing what to whom? :) Come on, Bytor, whatever your political affiliation, you’ve got to admit that Trump’s an idiot! Fess up! :)

#81 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.23.18 at 1:45 pm

@#79 Shawn Allen

Trust me when I say.
There were NO plugs to recharge any electronic devices.
NO TV’s, no USB ports, no power plugs, nothing.
Everyone was mentioning it.

Amazingly stupid decision by some nameless, faceless, unaccountable Air Canada beaurocrat that should be forced to sit in an uncomfortable seat with the recording of 5 screaming children all around them for 5.5 hours……..

As for the $450 price to be transported 4000 miles in 6 hours.
Sure.
But that still doesn’t justify turning it into a torture session that the Marquis de Sade would be proud of…..

#82 Gravy Train on 09.23.18 at 1:49 pm

#73 Shawn Allen on 09.23.18 at 11:38 am
“Canadians do not form a collective ‘we’ when it comes to economics. You are on your own. Others are not on your team that way. This is one of the key essences of a relatively free country. Free to succeed. Free to fail.” You’ve obviously never heard of collaborative consumption or the economic theory of clubs. Read up!
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collaborative_consumption
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Club_good

#83 KLNR on 09.23.18 at 2:00 pm

@#75 Stan Brooks on 09.23.18 at 12:22 pm
A dozen doughnuts at Tim Horton’s.

Used to be 5.99 3 years ago now is 9.95.
66 % increase in exactly 3 years.

And inflation is sub 2 % yearly.

Sure.
________________________________
being bought buy an american conglomerate looking for more profit probably has something to do with that.
Shouldnt be eating donuts anyhow so think of it as them doing you a favour :)

#84 Doug Rowat on 09.23.18 at 2:22 pm

#61 KLNR on 09.23.18 at 8:59 am

Doug, it’s officially clogged.

—-

Agreed.

—Doug

#85 akashic record on 09.23.18 at 2:50 pm

#68 crowdedelevatorfartz

“There is an app for that.” Bring your own device. Power sockets tends to be at feet level, these days.
AC entertainment system is on the internal wifi network.
If you can hack it, you can send message to the stewardess. Just call her flight attendant to avoid any legal troubles or twitter crucifixion.

“Watch it on your own” is becoming the standard all over the world these days, the screens tend to be reserved to full priced overseas flights.

To quote the Virgin ads “it’s better to be a member”.
Member of the business class or better yet, the class that flies private jet.

#86 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.23.18 at 3:18 pm

@#85 Akashic

Yeah. I hear ya.
Some of the people had the “on board” app and were “eye straining” to watch a movie on a 4 inch x 2 inch telephone screen…..awesome.

I read an Economist Mag I had thankfully brought along just in case.
It didn’t block out the 5.5 hours of baby wailing.

Cheaper cheaper cheaper seems to be the way of everything.
Perhaps why I despise the “cattle car” mentality of flying nowadays.
People used to be somewhat well dressed and well mannered.

Now?
You have some obese blob sitting next to you in spandex wearing sandals over their unclipped filthy toenails grunting down another burrito they have spirited out of the bottomless handbag that has more surprises coming out of it than a Houdini magic show.
I cant wait until private smart phones will be allowed on flights so that we can all listen in to inane vapid gossip from the Steerage section.

Hopefully Star Trek transporters aren’t that far off……

#87 Vinny on 09.23.18 at 3:23 pm

Florida has has 119 hurricanes since 1850 but the last one was due to climate change?

#88 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.23.18 at 3:24 pm

Oh, almost forgot.
“Stewardess” vs “flight attendant”
Perhaps they will eventually be referred to by their true name, “Sky waitress”.

Gone are the days when “stews” had to be qualified nurses and single before they were hired.
Now?
Bilingual with a “tude” seems to be the qualifications.

Can anyone explain to me why every announcement on a flight from Calgary to Vancouver must be repeated in French? Seems like a pointless exercise in meaningless govt mandates and judging from the passengers….English and mandarin would have been more appropriate.

#89 Damifino on 09.23.18 at 4:00 pm

#43 Lead Paint

Of course death tolls from large hurricanes were higher before satellite technology could be used to warn people to evacuate, or buildings were built to withstand hem.
—————————–

It’s indeed fortunate then, that the burning of fossil fuels has allowed society to advance to the point where we have satellites to warn us the next time mother nature is about to slap us silly.

#90 Wrk.dover on 09.23.18 at 4:05 pm

I got in trouble using the stewardess word in flight. It denotes the sex of the attendant. Bad.

En Francais it has to denote that…not bad?

#91 SoggyShorts on 09.23.18 at 4:24 pm

#75 Stan Brooks on 09.23.18 at 12:22 pm
A dozen doughnuts at Tim Horton’s.

Used to be 5.99 3 years ago now is 9.95.
66 % increase in exactly 3 years.
********************************
Quick google search shows that prices went up to
$7.49 in 2014
and
$8.99 is today’s price
That is a 20% increase over 4 years or around 4.6% per year.

Sources:
https://insidetimmies.com/2014/04/28/tim-hortons-raises-its-prices-a-timbit-now-costs-0-25-and-a-donut-is-a-1/
https://www.fastfoodmenuprices.com/tim-hortons-prices/

#92 Looney Baloney on 09.23.18 at 4:29 pm

Tremendously wet indeed!
https://i.pinimg.com/originals/d7/43/e8/d743e8d9c0d085b4b173be4214bd8642.jpg

#93 jess on 09.23.18 at 5:04 pm

“remote mothering’
find my phone apps

“It’s the idea that they have 24/7 surveillance on the younger gang members.

“So they know if they sent them 200 miles away to sell drugs across county lines within crack houses… they could see where they were at every point in that journey.

“What it means is that those young people are unable to let their battery go dead, unable to lose their phone, have their phone stolen or be out of range.

“Because if they can’t be seen, if they don’t know where or what they are doing – then that means there’s consequences and those consequences are violence towards them or violence towards their family.”

http://www.itv.com/news/2018-09-21/what-is-remote-mothering-and-how-are-apps-being-used-to-control-child-drug-runners/

#94 Kim Scott on 09.24.18 at 4:49 am

Amazing and tremendous wet story, the view is awesome – Oshawa apartment for rent is not going to cheap see this.

#95 RD on 09.26.18 at 11:09 am

Commenting late, but maybe someone will still read this. Hurricane strikes on the US by decade (total hurricane count is obviously different and less reliable in earlier decades): https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastdec.shtml. Draw your own conclusions on whether that number is increasing (hint: look at the average and the last time that that was exceeded). If you want more recent years, go ahead and count at http://www.stormfax.com/hurdecad.htm – the 2000s were slightly worse than average, the 2010s have been pretty quiet.