The trap

Dom and his squeeze are regular readers, recently out looking for digs to rent. “We found a place on our own via MLS,” he reports. “We called the number and a property management company sent a real estate agent to let us into the vacant house.”

So far, so good. Now check out what happened:

One more visit with the agent a couple days later and we processed the lease online with the property management company. Beyond opening the door for us, the agent wasn’t involved in the final documentation.

After approval of the lease, the real estate agent sends us 3 documents to sign and demands 1/2 the 1st month rent as a fee, $1200. At no time did the real estate agent mention about fees during the 2 house visits. We believed that since the property manager sent her, the property management would cover any agent costs.

The 3 documents are:

*         Working With A Realtor (Form 810) 1pg
*         Buyer Representation Agreement (Form 300) 3 pgs
*         Confirmation of Co-operation and Representation (Form 320) 2 pgs

From your blog I understand I don’t need to sign the BRA.

Given that we never agreed to her being our agent up front or discussed fees, do I need to sign any of the documents or pay her?

Tsk, tsk. Is this realtor greed. Or a landlord trying to wriggle out of the arranged commission on a successful rental?

No matter, Dom. You need not sign any documentation with the realtor nor, of course, pay a commission to the guy who’s acting on behalf of the landlord taking your rent money. However, if you do sign the BRA, all bets are off. Then you’ve agreed to pay a portion of the commission outstanding, or worse. The landlord could refuse any compensation to the agent, leaving you to pick up the whole tab. And still have to pay the rent.

This is a fine example of why nobody, ever, anywhere, under any circumstances (unless you have a law degree and specialize in real estate transactions) should sign a Buyer Representation Agreement. It’s a trap. The document is wholly one-sided, designed to protect and reward the realtor, heaping obligations upon the buyer while conferring no benefit.

Shame on this woman for trying to ensnare you, Dom. Print out this blog post, hand it to the person, then suggest where she might file it.

$     $     $

As you know, politicians have done more to make housing unaffordable and screwed-up than any other group.

Cheap interest rates inflated prices dramatically and led to historic levels of family debt. So they’re now swelling. Loose lending regs that encouraged borrowing have been turned on their head because people did exactly what they were encouraged to do. Real estate’s been milked relentlessly by local governments through things like Toronto’s double land transfer tax and Vancouver’s insane ‘empty-houses’ levy. One government encourages real estate with the RRSP homebuyer’s plan and a capital gain exemption, then another squeezes homeowners with a speculation tax, a luxury tax and a non-resident’s tax. Ontario and BC are trying to manipulate the market while municipalities wildly inflate new housing costs by insisting developers pay for public services.

It’s a mess. Soon to get worse.

The current election campaign in YVR is a case in point. It’s all about housing – just as every other BC vote has been lately. The poor locals are obsessed with this. One mayoralty candidate (Kennedy Stewart) vows to create a renters’ advocacy office to battle landlords, create 25,000 affordable housing units and triple the empty-houses tax. Oh yeah, and he wants the city to expropriate the private property of people who the state believes are ‘negligent’ landlords.

Meanwhile his opponents are howling against a 4.5% rent increase the province is allowing for 2019 (hardly a stretch when inflation is 3% and owners’ mortgage costs are rising). One (Ken Sim) would immediately allow homeowners to create two suites in every detached dwelling, tripling the density of residential zones, helping to erode property values and hammer down rents.

The drift left in local politics is unmistakable, and the consequences predictable. Politics as usual is bad enough. The politics of envy, even worse. Resist it.

124 comments ↓

#1 Ian on 09.14.18 at 4:08 pm

It’s a wonderful day for Canada!!!!!

People’s Party of Canada!! woohoooooo

Already a member. Sending my Blue card back to Scheer and his gang of Liberal Lite clowns.

Free to join before October. Join the movement!!!!

peoplespartyofcanada.ca

#2 Overheardyou on 09.14.18 at 4:12 pm

Unfortunately this is what happens when you have a population that doesn’t feel they need to work to earn what they want. Good things don’t come easy.

#3 Bluetheimpala on 09.14.18 at 4:19 pm

Tick tock. Love ya Garth!

#4 Mattl on 09.14.18 at 4:22 pm

Not sure I’m following how allowing home owners to add rental suites to existing properties would negatively impact property values. Quite the opposite, if I can build 2 suites behind my house that would only support and increase propert values. The Kennedy guy is a nut however.

And lets be honest, monetary policy has inflated both re and equity markets. No way that balanced portfolio bounces back in 2 years without gov’t intervention. Piper need to be paid on both RE and equity markets. Going to be an ugly few years when free money is gone.

In-demand, desirable areas are ones populated with single-family homes, not triplexes. Figure it out. – Garth

#5 Brian Ripley on 09.14.18 at 4:27 pm

“…howling against a 4.5% rent increase the province is allowing for 2019” Garth

Rents may be surging up in Vancouver, and they are; my unit went from $2700/mo to $4700/mo after I fled the lower mainland as a housing migrant, but residential sales are deteriorating and signalling a trend change on my Monthly Absorption Rate chart:
http://www.chpc.biz/mar-moi.html

And on the Sales charts, Vancouver sales have dropped 47% since the 2016 peak and in Toronto, sales have plunged 63% since their 2016 peak.

#6 Danforth on 09.14.18 at 4:32 pm

Are you not obliged to sign a BRA if actually buying a property, even if it is only valid for a single day, the day you’re offering?

Of course not. – Garth

#7 Alan from NH, on 09.14.18 at 4:35 pm

Garth,

Not sure how you figure allowing two suites in your basement lowers your value of your house, or for that matter drives down rents.

I’m guessing you’ve never had to rent a basement suite in Vancouver, but they aren’t plentiful.A couple thousand more will do nothing to affect the rental market, given the size of Greater Vancouver.

There can be parking issues in tight residential areas, but that could be addressed separately.

Ken Sim is the only one against speculation taxes, at least giving some nod to private property rights. Hopefully gets rid of the ban on Airbnb and lets people make their own choices about renting their property.

#8 Party on Garth on 09.14.18 at 4:43 pm

The borrowing and spending binge by Canadian households, businesses and governments (all levels) continues unabated. Growing the debt in the economy significantly faster than the economy itself grows seems to have developed into a way of life in Canada.

At the end of June, 2018 the total debt outstanding in Canada (bottom line of the Statistics Canada credit market summary data table) was $7.895 trillion. At the end of June, 2017 the total debt outstanding was $7.501 trillion. In the 1 year period from the end of June, 2017 to the end of June, 2018 it increased by $394 billion. This is an increase of 5.3%.

Canadian total (household, business, and all levels of government) debt numbers as of the end of June, 2018

https://owecanada.blogspot.com/2018/09/canadian-total-household-business-and.html

#9 Chaddywack on 09.14.18 at 4:46 pm

We were looking for a place in Vancouver recently and finally found one with a good, honest, company that seems to follow the rules.

A lot of the houses we vetoed were (mostly offshore) owners who had questionable companies. A lot of them wanted cash only and insisted that we could not have a lease that converts to month to month (even though BC legislation says after the fixed term [unless there’s a move out clause] that leases are deemed to convert)

It’s all about screening your landlord!

#10 BC housing crisis? on 09.14.18 at 4:51 pm

Been following the blog for years, bought in Vancouver two years ago, selling my condo for $300k more than I bought, might have to drop my price. No worries I said as housing is dropping everywhere. Wrong! Spend five days looking in Nainaimo, Parksville and Comox. While there, 20 houses I was looking at, over 12 sold. Agent said market is red hot as everyone is selling in Vancouver and Victoria and buying up island. Hers one example. House was bought in April for $500k sold in 8 days for $585. Panic buying?
I wish I could sell and rent but I have three years left on my mortgage and a three month penalty is not in the cards. I am totally depressed. I am not greedy but I was hoping to sell and buy an house and pocket some change. Now I am forced to,sell my condo lower as prices decline and buy into housing that is increasing. I know this is not right but I am on the ground and it’s happening. Advice?

#11 ContentIn306 on 09.14.18 at 4:55 pm

As Ian mentioned above, the platform Bernier/The People’s Party of Canada is putting out does seem interesting. I worry that it’s all a bluff and vapor, though. Not going to be a card carrying member until I see more substance.

Vote Bernier, get Trudeau. That should be the party slogan. – Garth

#12 Reality is stark on 09.14.18 at 5:01 pm

Housing prices are going down like a wet noodle.
That does not mean that the government can live with less tax revenue.
The mill rates will be rising.
Public servants still expect raises and the money has to come from somewhere. Suck it from whatever sector has seen a 10 year increase until the sector is bled dry.
The public service does not believe in compensation for risk, they want reward solely based on education even if that education has little value.
Pay up because you are too stupid to understand the difference.

#13 ContentIn306 on 09.14.18 at 5:04 pm

“Vote Bernier, get Trudeau. That should be the party slogan. – Garth”

Well I voted Green and “got Trudeau” last time. Par for the course out here. They don’t even mention Sask in the election night coverage.

#14 Nemesis on 09.14.18 at 5:05 pm

“The Politics of envy” – ProvocateurGT

#AuContraire… #It’sJustThe…

https://youtu.be/sRrSwLHyxGc

#15 oncebittwiceshy on 09.14.18 at 5:11 pm

BC housing crisis? “While there, 20 houses I was looking at, over 12 sold. Agent said market is red hot as everyone is selling in Vancouver and Victoria and buying up island.”

<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
Seriously ……….. give us all a break and do a little research before you start pumping the Island here.

https://www.tomwhitfield.ca/toms-blog.html

Continuing Trend Towards a Balanced Real Estate Market
Less Upward Pressure on Prices
The Qualicum Beach Parksville Nanoose Bay Fairwinds & Area real estate market has seen a shift towards a more balanced condition over the July, June & May period. The number of single family home sales has dropped by 30% with sales dollars down by 18% compared to the same period last year. The number of listings of single family homes is up by 35% compared to last year while the number of listings among all types of properties is up by 23%. It appears as though we may have begun a trend towards more balance between supply and demand, causing less upward pressure on prices.

#16 yvr_lurker on 09.14.18 at 5:11 pm

seriously, would you expect otherwise? The rents and costs of everything in and near Vancouver zoomed forward for over 15 years, far outstripping the ability of the average wage-earner to keep up. The housing issue is THE ISSUE to a large segment of the LOCAL population, as all the polls have shown. If the BC Liberals had made any effort over 15 years to reign-in speculation, and the overseas buyers who turned Vancouver into a huge monopoly board, we would be in a different position today. A successful candidate for Mayor now needs to be in-tune with this issue to get the votes needed. Many people have strong views on this, and do not see the answer (as suggested from the well-off) to move to Chibougamau or some other Timbuktu if they don’t like the costs of YVR. I don’t know how all this will turn out, but the political tide is changing (and in my view for the better).

#17 Stan Brooks on 09.14.18 at 5:12 pm

Well, just another day in the mental facility.


#8 Party on Garth on 09.14.18 at 4:43 pm
The borrowing and spending binge by Canadian households, businesses and governments (all levels) continues unabated. Growing the debt in the economy significantly faster than the economy itself grows seems to have developed into a way of life in Canada.

At the end of June, 2018 the total debt outstanding in Canada (bottom line of the Statistics Canada credit market summary data table) was $7.895 trillion. At the end of June, 2017 the total debt outstanding was $7.501 trillion. In the 1 year period from the end of June, 2017 to the end of June, 2018 it increased by $394 billion. This is an increase of 5.3%.

Canadian total (household, business, and all levels of government) debt numbers as of the end of June, 2018

https://owecanada.blogspot.com/2018/09/canadian-total-household-business-and.html

According to Ray Dalio and his new book called:
“A Template For Understanding Big Debt Crises”,

when total debt goes over 300 % of GDP, the economic depression becomes inevitable.
We are close to 400 %.

So according to the best ever hedge fund manager we are in a big, smelly doo doo.

Everyone with half a brain can guess whether the depression will be inflationary or deflationary and prepare.

#18 Linda on 09.14.18 at 5:23 pm

‘while municipalities wildly inflate new housing costs by insisting developers pay for public services’. OK, some education here. Development levy fees are the only thing that permits development to occur at the pace developers require in order to make money. Municipalities simply have not got the funds to erect infrastructure for the vast swathes of new developments. The development industry however can & does front the funds for the infrastructure most people expect – water, storm & sanitary sewers, roads, streetlights & so forth – when they purchase a new build. Most municipalities work with the local development industry to determine where the best ‘bang for the budget buck’ can be had. This directly correlates as to which developments go forward & when. If the developer wants to develop in the NW quadrant of a municipality, but the municipality has budgeted for development in the SE quadrant for that budget year, then developers in the SE see their project moving forward while the NW developers have to either delay development or effectively offer enough incentive to get their project onto that year’s development list. Keep in mind that until the lands are actually serviced, buildings erected & sold that the amount of property taxes collected by the municipality is much lower than what is collected once those properties have been occupied. Every time another area is developed, the budget funds for municipal infrastructure have to incorporate the latest additions as well as maintain/repair/replace all the aging infrastructure in older neighborhoods. This is why new neighborhoods frequently have no transit service or very limited transit service, or may not have a dedicated emergency services station, library or school despite lands having been set aside for that purpose. Those ‘wildly inflated’ housing costs are the price of new development taking place & in effect ensure that residents in existing neighborhoods do not fund development in new neighborhoods. Infrastructure is a very expensive commodity. Not a few municipalities have gone bankrupt because the cost of repair/replacement of existing infrastructure far exceeded what they could raise via property taxes.

#19 Smartalox on 09.14.18 at 5:30 pm

There’s already been a lot of speculative development in Vancouver, houses ‘redeveloped’ with multiple basement suites, laneway houses, etc.

After investing, renting and waiting, I’m starting to pay attention to the detached market again, and find it difficult to find nice SINGLE FAMILY homes on lots that don’t have three or four other residences on them. I don’t want it for myself, and I sure don’t want to pay a premium to live next door to it.

Must be terrible to own a multi-million dollar property, only to have some upstart buy the house next door and convert it into a mini ghetto.

#20 Geesus on 09.14.18 at 5:31 pm

Did u think she was working for free ?

Good grief

#21 The Wet One on 09.14.18 at 5:32 pm

Ummm…

Garth.

You write this:

“… municipalities wildly inflate new housing costs by insisting developers pay for public services.”

But uh, who exactly should pay for new services to new suburbs that developers are building? Everyone else?

Do tell.

I mean, people in those new suburbs do want power, water, sewer and roads right? Probably also new libraries, fitness centers, pools, and whatever else the municipality provides right? So should people in older areas pay the freight for these services, or should the buyers in new areas buy them?

Are you trying to encourage more sprawl by making the new areas artificially cheap or what is it that you’re arguing here?

Someone’s gotta pay for all this new municipal infrastructure. It seems fair that the people who move into new areas that will be served by this otherwise unnecessary new infrastructure pay for it.

They shouldn’t pay any more than that cost, of course, but otherwise, it seems fair on the face of it. Why should new neighbourhoods get it for free or on the backs of all the other taxpayers?

What am I missing here?

#22 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.14.18 at 5:42 pm

Kennedy Stewart….. another in a long line of professional politicians ( Elizabeth May comes to mind) that originate in Nova Scotia and then move to the west coast to continue in their quest to milk the political teat.
Kennedy Stewart was the NDP MP in Burnaby North.
The Harper conservatives split the riding and Stewart became the NDP MP for Burnaby South.
He has now vacated the riding for The leader of the NDP Mr Singh to finally gain a seat .
( Gee. one wonders if Kennedy doesnt win in the Vancouver mayoralty race……… if he has a posh, well paid federal NDP position lined up to fall back on…..just sayin’).
Kennedy Stewart……another member in a long line of self serving political hacks that achieve nothing but milk the taxpayers dry………..

#23 YVR rents are flatlined on 09.14.18 at 5:43 pm

http://vancitycondoguide.com/rent-price-growth-flatlined/

Rent Prices in Vancouver have Flatlined

“However, as the real estate market begins to slow, while simultaneously new construction ramps up (currently at all time highs in Vancouver), vacancy rates increase and rent prices begin to fall as an abundance of new supply overwhelms the market.”

#24 Chris on 09.14.18 at 5:44 pm

Dom, if you don’t like the BRA, go topless

#25 Is housing really dropping? As compared to what on 09.14.18 at 5:44 pm

There been allot of talk and even more statistics about falling house prices! Has anyone really looked at prices? What are you comparing? Here’s an example of 100 houses on the realtors web site. I looked closely at over 100 homes, here’s what I found. Yes almost all are listed and now the price is up to 40 thousand less then original asking. Is this proof of a falling market or greedy expectations? Digging deeper I found over 90 percent have been owned for more than four years. Almost all were purchased at 40 to 50 percent less than current asking. So I ask again is housing falling out of the sky? The answer is no. It’s all fear spreading rumours. Yes housing is dropping because greedy people are asking pie in the sky prices, then dropping the price because the house does not sell. But I challenge everyone on this blog to show me a house purchased 3,4,5 or more years ago and is worth less or sold less now then they originally paid!
Any takers?
I am also looking at sold houses now compared to prices paid. I bet anything anyone who bought over three years ago there is nothing that sold less than original purchase price. Yeah you all cheer when a Vancouver house drops from 2 million to 1.5 million as proff of a falling market. But I bet if it’s more than three years old they paid much less for the house and so therefore who cares.
Chew on that bone.

#26 RISE Canada on 09.14.18 at 5:51 pm

Doug Ford should lock you and your wife up in prison for suppressing freedom of speech in Ontario.

#27 BC housing crisis on 09.14.18 at 5:54 pm

To oncebittwiceshy
You are quoting statistics. Which are meaningless
I am giving you actually facts from two days ago,
How can you dispute my facts? You are quoting listings are rising, balanced market. But when you looking. At housing and 12out of 20sold in a week, do you call that balanced.?
I don’t care if listings go up 100 fold if they sell then it’s a hot market.
You are quoting June, July August, which are the slowest months in housing. I am quoting two day old information.

I got my facts right, houses are selling red hot and most houses bought four years ago for $400,000are now selling over $600,000. Prices are not balanced.
You can quote all the stats you want, but I suggest you go to the ground like I did.
So what does it mean to you that 12 houses out of 20 sold for more than 200,000 than four years ago? Is that what you call balanced? There are only 26 homes in my price range listed and 12 sold this week. Better stop quoting three month old statistics and do like me and experience life two days old.

#28 Stan Brooks on 09.14.18 at 5:57 pm

It is an interesting phenomena.

Huge supper bubble in everything – fake economy, housing etc, driving sky high asset valuations based on huge leverage squared, cubed etc. and everyone wants to capitalize in real terms (income taxes, municipal taxes, provincial fees, real estate agent fees, rents, bank mortgages, insurance, oligopolies profits, etc.) in real money/wealth that does not exist.

Like trying to make a skyscraper with clay and fart as building materials.

Or trying to squeeze water out of a stone.

We should be in the economics text books as an example of absolutely idiotic economic policies that we actually somehow accepted as realistic and viable.

#29 Shawn Allen on 09.14.18 at 6:02 pm

The “We Myth” Gone Wild

So Maxime Bernier has not only unwisely chosen to call his party the “The People’s Party of Canada” but this has been allowed.

As one of the people of Canada who has no interest in supporting his party I don’t like that he has more or less co-opted me and every other person in Canada as a supporter or someone he represents.

This is a dumb name for a party and I trust his party will go no place.

Why not try for a name that at least suggests something of what the party stands for?

The “We Myth” is the mistaken idea that you are part of some team or that others are on your team. Bernier is very presumptive in trying to assert that he represents the interests of “the people” of Canada. And more so that very many of “the people” will be okay with being appropriated into his party like this. He will find out how false that idea is.

#30 DaleFromCalgary on 09.14.18 at 6:08 pm

Calgary assesses developer fees on new neighbourhoods. Somebody has to pay for streets, utility lines, parks, schools, and transit. Unfair to spread the load over the rest of the city, since property taxes are high enough. Older neighbourhoods had to pay for their public works, and so should new neighbourhoods.

#31 Shawn Allen on 09.14.18 at 6:08 pm

Capitalism is Fine … unless it goes too far

In the game of Monopoly, the game is over and must start fresh when one person ends up owning everything.

That could be one out of four people.

How should a democratic government react if the top 1% own 50% of the wealth and money? What is the limit where the system would need to change if the top 1% garner 50%, 60%, 70%, 80% or more of all the wealth? Are we there yet?

#32 Sne-Ny-Mo on 09.14.18 at 6:12 pm

#10 BC housing crisis?

No doubt, and I think that will continue to happen – that is, mainlander refugees moving over to the Island to free up capital. The opportunity is closing though.

Funny that we always thought the tide would go out first from the Island, Kelowna and other distant areas. It seems more like a Tsunami gushing through places unknown in odd ways. Long may it last for us Islanders.

#33 Stan Brooks on 09.14.18 at 6:17 pm


#25 Is housing really dropping? As compared to what on 09.14.18 at 5:44 pm

But I challenge everyone on this blog to show me a house purchased 3,4,5 or more years ago and is worth less or sold less now then they originally paid!
Any takers?
I am also looking at sold houses now compared to prices paid. I bet anything anyone who bought over three years ago there is nothing that sold less than original purchase price. Yeah you all cheer when a Vancouver house drops from 2 million to 1.5 million as proff of a falling market. But I bet if it’s more than three years old they paid much less for the house and so therefore who cares.
Chew on that bone

You are correct that housing has not dropped (yet) bellow prices from before 4-5 years.

But you are very quick on building expectations and then deriving strategic conclusions based on a very limited time frame.

The big housing crash is just beginning.

In my humble estimates houses in GTA/Vancouver etc. are priced currently over 3-4 times above defining fundamentals like utility, income, economy, demographics.

If revert to the mean means anything to you (after 20 and something years of the craziest debt fueled and manipulated real estate market in history where prices increased 6 – 10 times in some places like Mississauga and Vaughan, with incomes stagnant so we ended up in the biggest debt as part of GDP by far and the worse current account in the whole world) anything short of 70 % correction in real terms (considering real income, fundamentals etc) will be a total shock to me.

It would mean that we have defied with idiotic policies any logic and reason that ever existed in economy and markets.

No that it is not possible in an isolated mental institution.
But in the current world? No way.

Any expectations that we can continue with this insane policies, trends and debt growth going forward is ludicrous.

We borrow 400 billion yearly to produce GDP of 2 trillions.

I challenge you to come back in 5-6 years and then we can assess the state of the housing market, economy or
whatever is left from it.

#34 Paul on 09.14.18 at 6:20 pm

Hate to break it to you but, if the property is on M.L.S.
It is listed though a real estate broker.

I think we all know that. And the landlord pays the fee. – Garth

#35 Thumbs Up for Kennedy Stewart on 09.14.18 at 6:22 pm

Another running for Vancouver mayor is Shauna Sylvester who seems to actually care about people making an honest living in Vancouver.

And if you allow a home to have two suites, that home values sky rockets. Here is what the realtor ad will say, when cranking the sell price up 300K. “Excellent investment property with two legal suites where you can rent out each one for 2k per month” and the NDP allow you to increase it 4.5% annually. And then the bank will say, oh you can get 4k per month, we will apporove you for 2,800 per month additional rental income in your approval. Great, now you can afford that 2M dollar house on a 72,000 per year income.”

See how it works?

Called up-zoning. Changing zoning and bylaws is the oldest trick in the book to pump housing.

Don’t belive me? Just ask the kind owner Emily of the Oasis house in North Vancouver who just operates without any rule of law. When you turn your town home into a 15-bed short term rental the money is good. 212K income per year. If this was legal, the bank would say, okay, you are approved for your income +147K from the rental income parameters meaning, yes, you are approved for 2M. Now as an owner, I realize this and price my home up from 1M to 3M and accept 2.2M from the overstretched buyer.

That is one way to overtake Australia.

https://globalnews.ca/video/4356213/more-details-on-controversial-north-vancouver-hostel

#36 Linda on 09.14.18 at 6:29 pm

‘Is housing really dropping?’ – you make an excellent point that those who bought 4 or more years ago will probably be able to sell for more than they paid for that property despite the recent trend to lower selling prices in many areas. I think that anyone who bought a decade ago will still be able to get at least what they paid, even if current housing prices drop further than expected. The point Garth has made is that those who bought recently, at the ‘top of the market’ are going to be underwater if they try to sell now & depending on how much prices have dropped since their original purchase may in fact find that they will owe more on their mortgage than what they can sell their property for. Hence the outcry from those people in the GTA who purchased as yet to be built homes from a local developer only to see the exact same properties sold to later purchasers for as much as $100,000 less. Despite having freely signed contracts these folks were asking the developer to give back the money they had effectively lost since purchase. The developer apparently offered to adjust the original price by as much as $20,000 but these folks wanted the whole shebang because even before they moved in, they were underwater. However, I’m sure if the prices had continued to climb that these folks would not have felt any need to share any increased value with the developer…..

Bottom line is that most of the fallout applies to 1) those who bought at peak market; 2) those whose finances will not readily support the new mortgage rules upon renewal & who for whatever reason must sell in a falling market & 3) those who ‘must’ sell for whatever reason & who are competing with increased listings who also ‘have’ to sell for whatever reason.

#37 Stan Brooks on 09.14.18 at 6:32 pm

#29 Shawn Allen on 09.14.18 at 6:02 pm
The “We Myth” Gone Wild

So Maxime Bernier has not only unwisely chosen to call his party the “The People’s Party of Canada” but this has been allowed

======================

You will be hearing about this ‘people’s party’ and Max hourly on CBC, just watch it when the marching orders from the peoplekind sponsors arrive.

It is elementary manipulation, but it seems everything works with this sheeple, it is that stupid.

#38 Nonplused on 09.14.18 at 6:32 pm

How, exactly, does Kenny propose to create 25,000 “affordable housing” units? There are only 2 ways to affect the price of something: decrease demand or increase supply. The main role cities play in market dynamics is that they restrict supply through planning ordinances and development permits. They’ve been doing this in every city for a long time.

If you look at the price of houses in Calgary,

http://www.chpc.biz/6-canadian-metros.html

you can see that Calgary had a big explosion in 2006 that corresponded with the oil boom, but things have been much more subdued since. This is because they’ve been paving dirt and building condos at a good clip ever since, so there isn’t really a housing “shortage” an Calgary, although supply is still somewhat constrained.

Actually if you look at that chart it’s pretty clear that the only markets that have been nutso since the GFC are Vancouver and Toronto, but Toronto has been fairly reasonable compared to Vancouver. Calgary is still up about $100,000 or 25% or so over the 10 years, which is impressive, but more in line with inflation. Toronto and especially Vancouver are up nuts.

It’s hard to believe that in 2007 the price of a house in Calgary and Toronto was about the same. Calgary had just recently run up though, so that was probably an anomaly caused by the oil boom.

So I suspect Garth will be proven correct and real estate will prove to be local once again. Calgary could see a correction of about 20%, putting prices more in line with Edmonton and Ottawa, but probably not that extreme, so I am going to say the bottom for Calgary will be 10% lower. However looking at this chart there is no way to say how far Toronto and Vancouver could fall. If you visually fit an exponential trend line, the first support is 20-30% down. However there is a case to be made that Vancouver could fall 40%. Even then they’d still have the most expensive houses in the land.

What a mess that would be for the BC economy. Not saying it’s going to happen, but it could. They are perfectly set up for a “Minsky moment” when everybody realizes their equity has gone “poof” and can no longer carry the mortgage.

Debt growth is behind most bubbles as rising prices support increased lending. But it is also behind most collapses once the debt can’t be serviced.

#39 KLNR on 09.14.18 at 6:32 pm

@#26 RISE Canada on 09.14.18 at 5:51 pm
Doug Ford should lock you and your wife up in prison for suppressing freedom of speech in Ontario.
_______________________________

solid chance you’re the one that needs to be locked up lol

#40 Felix on 09.14.18 at 6:34 pm

A character-revealing photo tonight.

Pooch on the right trying to pickpocket the redhead.

Probably too dumb to realize it’s a mutt, not a kangaroo with a pouch.

Another low IQ canine criminal.

#41 mj on 09.14.18 at 6:38 pm

hi Garth, when I was putting offers on houses 5 years ago, I had a friend who was a realtor and he told me his company told him that everyone he works with has to sign a bra. So he would do it for 24 hours,. So every time I put an offer, I would sign one for 24 hours. I think it’s the big companies pushing it.

#42 Re: BC Housing Crisis on 09.14.18 at 6:48 pm

I can see the spread happening on the Island, but it would be a dire mistake to buy in unless you are coming all cash and could care less about future values.

I had a friend buy a house in Comox for 350k a year and half or so ago, and now they are going for 500k in that area. Stupidity. But hey, if you think that is a great value, go for it.

The Island (even though it is not on the mainland and might disappear in the big earthquake) is a better option than inland BC where they get hammered with extreme temperature changes, poor air quality that locks in from forest fires blocking the sun out most summers and wood burning heat in the winters, which causes a lot of health problems and extra money for constant heating or cooling. On the Island you can turn off your HVAC for 6 months and just open windows for fresh ocean air. Same as Vancouver (Vancouver, not the trashy Fraser Valley).

But, don’t start looking at stocks after hearing the news about them exploding in value. Same as a house. You missed out. Move on. Look at better options. It was easy to see this coming in 2014. All you do is watch what happens in Vancouver. That is your leading indicator.

Wait and see what happens to the house prices in these small communities in a economic contraction.

What really should be happening is Vancouver crashing to where people can climb the housing ladder and buy a house for 5-600k, enjoy life being able to afford it and make for a strong community. That is how is used to be in Vancouver around 2005. Doubt it will return. I already cashed out of Vancouver anyways.

But listen, most truly do not want to live in these remote so called affordable areas. But if you look at the alternative, picking up and moving out of the lower mainland is a no brainer. And until prices change significantly in Vancouver, people will continue to move to wherever they can find a great place that is affordable. Canada is a big country. You are not restricted in moving wherever you feel. Most of this movement has already happened. Victoria is an aftershock where people made an easy 3-400k the past few years and cashing that in for the same digs a few hour drive north is not a bad idea, if you can do it. People want to erase their debt and have tons of money. Human greed nature.

The big uptick and price adjustments for this movement however, peaked in 2017 along with price adjustment.

There might be a bit of movement on the Island, but how high will it go? 700K for a house? Like I said, people will start avoiding the area once that happens.

No economic fundamentals support this and the Liberals let the dirty money flow in and it is making its way through the system like a wave spreading out. The gateway for this that really kicked up in 2015 is all but gone now, so expect that wave to stop and eventually retreat. Again, I would not be buying any property that seems overpriced right now unless you are low leveraged or all cash and can easily absorb the cost of staying if values drop.

Keep your eye 2-3 years ahead of the present day changes. And make movements on that.

#43 -80% YVR Bear on 09.14.18 at 6:48 pm

Talking of city politics in YVR, which party will put the most negative for RE prices? Which one will inflict the most pain on homeowners?

#44 Debtslavecreator on 09.14.18 at 6:50 pm

As the system stumbles toward the inevitable final collapse, you will see polarizing politics with a move to the right but then just before the Big Bang an incredible move far left and this will accelerate the economy and society’s demise – aka the “re-set”
Not doomer porn either
You’ve seen nothing yet with these radical govt actions – outright near communist actions await us
Ford is an idiot and using the notwithstanding clause is harsh but he is using it to reduce a massively oversized local govt that cannot govern and ford is trying to save taxpayers huge money – but between 2021-2032 we will see radical left politicians using these crazy orders to seize property from everyone
What you see in YVR is merely an early but light taste of what’s to come – the left is much more aggressive and violent as govt collapses
Bernier might be able to destroy the PCs and take centrist Liberal votes – you cannot rule it out
If Bernier grows the party much more than expected watch the MSM blatantly attack and report almost all negatively on Bernier just as they do with Trump and Ford
The kleptocracy uses its media assets to mould public opinion to its preference and they will stop at nothing to protect big govt as that’s the main tool used to extract and protect their wealth
Be safe

#45 Nonplused on 09.14.18 at 6:54 pm

Speaking of bubbles, I wonder how much of the Bitcoin crash was caused by the credit card companies banning purchases of Bitcoin using their cards. I can see why they did it. In some sense in the early days it might have made sense to allow Bitcoin purchases because they might have thought it was just another payment method like PayPal. But once it was clear people were maxing out their cards to buy the Bitcoins themselves as a speculation, it probably became clear the default risks were great. Are people really going to pay off $10,000 worth of credit card debt if the coins are now only worth $5,000? And there was no way for the credit card companies to “margin” the account like a broker does. So I can see why they wanted out of that business.

For those unfamiliar with “margin” trading, what the broker does is they lend you money to buy stocks (as an example) but insist you maintain a “margin”, which is an amount of equity in the stocks or cash in the account to cover any loses so their loan does not become impaired if the stock goes down. If the stock starts going down they call you up and say you have to sell part of the position or give them some more cash by the end of the day. If you don’t they sell the stock for you until the margin requirement is met. This can mean, in extreme cases, that all your stocks are gone and you still owe them money. But not as much as you would have if they hadn’t sold them. Unfortunately Visa and the others had no way to do this with Bitcoin, hence the ban.

The banks, however, can do this with mortgages. Not right away, but look out upon renewal if you are underwater. They won’t renew at the previous price, and you’ll have to come up with the difference. That’s one thing the US has over Canada with their 30 year mortgages, since you don’t have to renew until in theory the house is paid off you can ride out such a storm as long as you are in good standing and making the payments.

#46 Democracy Is Mob Rule on 09.14.18 at 6:57 pm

#28 Stan Brooks on 09.14.18 at 5:57 pm

Huge supper bubble in everything
________________________________________________

Huge increase in money supply (purchasing power) due to quantitative easing.

Huge increase in debt (purchasing power) due to low interest rates.

The money has to go somewhere.

#47 Yo on 09.14.18 at 7:05 pm

BC Housing Crisis.

Relax.

Same price jumps happened all over BC. A fake 300k jump on average across the board that people are making real by accepting to pay it. The jump basically happened over night in Vancouver. Took a few years in the outlying areas.

This is old news. Might still be pumping up Island. But this will soon be old news as well.

Places like the Island and Interior will be falsely assessed 10-12% up again this year. But mr.market has other ideas and these changes are slow – multiple years – but already in progress. There was a big overshoot.

My old house in Tsawwassen has dropped in value by 450K since I sold it in 2016. I would not have seen this in 2016. I thought it might be up another 200k after I sold. A neighbor house has been on the market for for 8 moths, multiple price cuts, now 120k below assessed value and 350k below what I sold mine for. This is a comparable property to my old one.

And this my friend is coming to a town near you. Prices will massively overshoot, then massively undershoot, then balance somewhere in the middle, which will be a bit higher than say what you would have paid 10 years ago. A correction is happening and it is not hard to calculate how much it will correct to get in line with where it will settle.

Remember, if you borrow, the bank fully expects you to pay them back. CMHC can garnish your wages on future earnings and will sue you for any loss. YOU are the one who signs on the dotted line and YOU bear all responsibility any such decision.

The only people with a free pass to get away with this Ponzi are the banks.

#48 Retired in Kelowna on 09.14.18 at 7:21 pm

Garth I would be interested in your opinion on this disastrous Bill C-69 that is now before the Senate. From what I can understand this could be a disaster for Foreign Investment in Canada. People have no idea this is happening and now this is at the Senate. Trudeau at his best, following his father with the NEP. Only this could be worse. Thanks.

#49 Danny on 09.14.18 at 7:32 pm

Well now that Christine Elliott and Ms Mulroney are hiding behind “Doug the Thug “….we have to wait and see what Doug will do about housing as he said yesterday that his next priority is housing.

Of course this is after his government blamed immigrants for a housing crisis.

Of course unlike Garth….not a mention of low interest rates by banks, the onslaught by the frantic advertisements by the real estate boards to buy buy buy and sell sell sell, the impact speculators have had on the housing prices…No not one word from Doug about those folks.

And why not….of course they financed his election, made him King and pushed Elliott and Mulroney out of the way….

Doug yesterday complained about people trying to tape up his mouth…while he was busy taping up the mouths of his MPPs.

Does this “double standard” sound familiar…..yes Donald Trump…..the one who complains all the time when others use his past tactics…as if Doug and Donald have a patent on tactics which are self serving.

Garth….I suspect Doug will give you a lot of stuff to talk about…in the near future after his slaps down Toronto….not Windsor, Mississauga, Brampton, Markham for their municipal spending. Oh but of course only Toronto witnessed his dysfunctional running of Toronto with his mindless brother who could only talk with two syllable words. Now Queens Park will witnessed dysfunctional Doug Ford. Why doesn’t Doug reduce the cost of running Queens Park and their MPPs first?

But with you Garth…….I forecast that when the Real Estate Board Cartel and maybe even Doug try to put tape on your mouth….they won’t succeed.

You got my support if they try….stay strong.

#50 For those about to flop... on 09.14.18 at 7:33 pm

I see some people on here need to do some reading this weekend.

I plucked out some cases across various segments of the market to bust a few myths and to stop people talking horseshit, frankly.

Speaking of horseshit, it was Boom’s second anniversary of his passing on the 5th of September and I saw not one GAP code or mention.

Too busy attacking each other in this Trumpian era.

Stay classy Canada…

M44BC
M64WI

Block of land*******

CONFIRMED PINK SNOW.

SO what happened if you bought a prime block of land for someone to develop at the peak?

Can’t talk about everyone but these guys got spanked.

The details…

1650 Waterloo st,Vancouver.

Paid 5.39 April 2016

Sold 4.9 July 2018

Lots of numbers could be thrown around,like the fact it went for a million below original ask but most people are most interested in the bottom line.

9% between the numbers and 14% percent after expenses and we won’t even bother with opportunities lost or else we get near the million mark and let’s go with the nice easy number is a 750k punch in the pineapple…

M44BC

Sold mid July 2018

1650 Waterloo Street, Vancouver paid 5.39 April 2016 ass4.74 now asking 5.19

block of land

Jan 12:$5,900,000

Jun 20: $5,698,000

Change: – 202000.00 -3%

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/1650-waterloo-street

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAwMDVEWA==

Detached house ***

CONFIRMED PINK SNOW.

Well,here is confirmation of the biggest loss I have recorded since my study on the Vancouver real estate market started.

I do original reporting and research and don’t go regurgitating someone else’s porridge.

The details…

Paid 5m in April 2016

Sold 4.4 m in July 2017( the deal was done in late May)

Roughly a 17% loss after expenses and approximately 850k mistake with known expenses.

Seems like it is only a matter of time before someone takes a million dollar hit…

M43BC

Sold on May 22
4765 Pilot Rd West Vancouver 5m.paid asking 5.295
https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAyOTFTRA==

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAyOTFTRA==

https://www.zolo.ca/west-vancouver-real-estate/4765-pilot-house-road

Luxury condo***

CONFIRMED PINK SNOW.

I just want to get something out of the way right off the bat with this one.

I was told that they paid 2.98 by someone that tried to help me a while back and when they finally got around to updating it the loss is not as dramatic as suspected.

Numbers are written down wrong,mistakes are made,deals are broken.

I have seen people do segments of what I do here and on my blog but not from start to finish,double checking the result and then presenting them.

Anyway let’s check the result of this luxury condo sale and I because of the length of time involved I might need some help because compared to a lot of you guys I am a mathematical muppet.

The details…

103 5151 Brighouse Way Richmond

Paid 2.58 October 2013

Sold 2.68 February 2018

Originally asking 3.78

Assessment 3.38

So they held out for a while but didn’t get anywhere near asking but only took a loss after expenses.

Approximately 40k

Where this one is a little different than most of my cases which are normally resolved in a couple of years,this one basically dragged on for 4 and a half.

What could they have been doing with this money in the meantime?

I guess it is plausible to say the loss zone is over 200k.

In my mind the main story with this one is not the loss but how much it went below the assessment of 3.38

700k or over 20% below.

Richmond is not a healthy patient…

M44BC

Sold for 2.68 on February1 st,2018

103 5151 Brighouse Way Richmond . Paid 2.58 October 2013

Assessment 3.38

2017-03-08 : $3,788,000
2017-09-01 : $2,980,000

https://www.zolo.ca/richmond-real-estate/5151-brighouse-way/a103

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/RDAwMDBKUFFHWg==

Townhome ***

Let’s take a look at what happened with this townhouse flip in Richmond.

The details…

27 8051 Ash Street, Richmond

Paid 993k March 2016

Sold 964k March 2018

So 3% less,chuck in 5 for the realtor,that’s 8,and if you wanted to ding them a little bit for opportunities lost then a couple percent each year lands us a 12% loss.

The loss zone on this flip is between 80 to 120k.

When this townhome first sold I posed the question…

Can you still overpay for a townhouse in Vancouver and get away with it?

No,no you can’t…

M44BC

Sold on March 4th 2018

27 8051 Ash Street, Richmond paid 993k March 2016 asking 969k

Feb 19:$999,000
Mar 1: $969,900
Change: – 29100.00 -3%

https://www.zolo.ca/richmond-real-estate/8051-ash-street/27

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDA1V1RWNQ==

Mid range condo

CONFIRMED PINK SNOW.

Here is one of the two condos that Old Bird was good enough to help me report in real time.

5001 and 5003 were sold at the same time and all the evidence pointed towards the same seller taking a double whammy but only this one has been updated in the database and so up she goes and I will post the other one when it becomes official.

The details…

Paid 593k October 2014
Sold 578k July 2017

This sale took place in the complex that I was referring to last night that the sales are starting fall off b.c assessment because the three years has expired and all I can do is reach out to realtors on here to help keep the information updated.

This is the low end of the ladder but some heavy hitters are in the 3 million dollar range having to same problem.One recorded loss on that front but no official confirmation.

Anyway,this particular case with known expenses I will go with a 7.5% loss or roughly 45k.

More to come in the same building…

M43BC

5001-5511 Hollybridge Way, Richmond Sold

Dec 18:$689,000
Jul 10: $578,000
Change: – 111000.00 -16%

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/property.aspx?_oa=RDAwMDBOQjRVOQ==

Low end Condo***

CONFIRMED PINK SNOW.

Here’s another case of junior Pink Snow but the reason I will share this one is because it is a Vancouver condo and also because they bought in 2015 and still took a small loss.

Nov 2105 paid 375k

April 2017 sold 384k

And so after holding for a year and a half they took roughly a 5% loss…

M42BC

101-1296 70TH AVE W VANCOUVER
https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAwMUczOA==

#51 BS on 09.14.18 at 7:33 pm

The current election campaign in YVR is a case in point. It’s all about housing – just as every other BC vote has been lately.

Problem is none of these politicians will keep their promises. Case in point BC NDP.

On the other hand down South we now have the “gold standard” for keeping election promises.

“Lawrence Solomon: Trump isn’t ‘unpredictable.’ He’s doing everything he said he would”

There has never been a more predictable, more steadfast or more constant president than Donald J. Trump. In public policy, he is the gold standard in staying the course.

https://business.financialpost.com/opinion/lawrence-solomon-trump-isnt-unpredictable-hes-doing-everything-he-said-he-would

#52 Millmech on 09.14.18 at 7:39 pm

#31
Yes I am all for wealth redistribution,make everybody equal, and in a generation the numbers will be where they are today. People are poor because they have “poor” money habits.
People at my work have no RRSP because they are allowed to pull out both theirs and company contributions once a year which they do and they whine about how broke they will be in retirement.About half the workers st my plant are in this situation after 30-40yrs of working nothing saved.

#53 Newcomer on 09.14.18 at 7:48 pm

#18 Linda on 09.14.18 at 5:23 pm

Thanks for explaining that. I never knew all that. Makes sense!

…….

On a separate note, I don’t see why Garth is drawing a line in the sand on government intervention at precisely this moment in time, when past intervention has given billions to one group of people for no particular reason. How likely are Mills to say, “That’s OK Boomers, you guys keep the free money. We’ll get by somehow. Let’s just not doing anything unfair.” — This may be Canada, but we’re not that Canadian. This is all part and parcel of the effects of the Harper policies and we are not done yet.

My line was drawn lone ago. – Garth

#54 Think About It on 09.14.18 at 7:53 pm

All this false projections of people retiring using ETF’s, mutual funds, stocks, REIT’s etc. for low savings rates is really getting old.

If you don’t save a minimum of $2,000 a month for minimum 30 years you have no chance in hell of ever living a decent life in or near retirement.

#55 The Real Mark on 09.14.18 at 8:00 pm

My wazoo is a kazoo,
in mom’s basement,
and at the kid’s zoo.

Oh, and my Chromebook has Wi-Fi and BlewToot. Top that, imposter!

#56 Hawk on 09.14.18 at 8:03 pm

#8 Party on Garth on 09.14.18 at 4:43 pm

No worries that debt has increased by 101% from 2007, since home values have increased by way more than that, so Cannucks are rich, plenty of gas left in the bag……..except if buyers stop buying than poof poof suddenly those houses aren’t “worth” endless sums of money, …………..oh shit!!!!!!

#57 oncebittwiceshy on 09.14.18 at 8:03 pm

BC Housing Crisis: “You are quoting listings are rising, balanced market. But when you looking. At housing and 12out of 20sold in a week, do you call that balanced.?”

<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Actually that was a real estate agent quoting facts, not me.

I'm not sure why I let realtors suck me in but I checked realtor.ca for you.

There are over 140 houses for sale in Nanaimo under $500,000. 60 under $400,000 and 16 under $300,000.

"Been following the blog for years, bought in Vancouver two years ago, selling my condo for $300k more than I bought, might have to drop my price."

So, dump your condo and go buy a house in Nanaimo.

$259,000
MLS® Number: 445183

Cue the excuses!

#58 conan on 09.14.18 at 8:03 pm

Don’t mess with Mr. Split-The-Conservative-Vote. He is Mad, and he is Max.
MadMax.

#59 Dolce Vita on 09.14.18 at 8:08 pm

#25 Is housing really dropping? As compared to what

Minutiae observations.

All your are doing is chronicling a downward price curve.

Take a look at the historical HPI Chart below and the 416 RE peak in 1989 (or others for that matter).

https://i.imgur.com/mekvuKH.jpg

In 1990 people can say: I bought in 1988 and broke even = 2 years ago.

In 1992 people can say: I bought in 1987 and broke even = 5 years ago.

In 1996 people can say: I bought in 1986 and broke even = 10 years ago.

And next year I fully expect you to post:

“But I challenge everyone on this blog to show me a house purchased 5,6,7 or more years ago and is worth less or sold less now then they originally paid!
Any takers?”

…and the year after that you will NOT post because 5,6,7 has become 10 and an end to your brazen ways.

History repeats and so does human nature.

#60 Hawk on 09.14.18 at 8:09 pm

#25 Is housing really dropping? As compared to what

===============================

When people refer to falling prices, its in the context of months not years i.e. houses are cheaper than they were a few months ago.

#61 paul on 09.14.18 at 8:10 pm

#34 Paul on 09.14.18 at 6:20 pm

Hate to break it to you but, if the property is on M.L.S.
It is listed though a real estate broker.

I think we all know that. And the landlord pays the fee. – Garth
—————————————————————–
“We found a place on our own via MLS,” he reports. “We called the number and a property management company sent a real estate agent to let us into the vacant house.”

Just going by their quote” if they called the number from mls I don’t know how they got the property management the number would have been the agent’s.

Either way the house owner or the management pays the fee.

#62 the Jaguar on 09.14.18 at 8:31 pm

In-demand, desirable areas are ones populated with single-family homes, not triplexes. Figure it out. – Garth

Garth, you forget the poster lives in the BC interior, which like all other areas of BC is the domain of people who like tenants. Everyone in BC has a suite and moister in the basement. Or two or three suites. They like to refer to them as ‘mortgage helpers’. It’s a cultural marker of the population. They don’t care if the suites are legal or not, and most municipalities are lax on enforcement. Just count the number of cars parked on the streets in these hoods and you’ll know you are standing in a neighbourhood where the term ‘single family residential’ is not well understood.

On another twist, (before you head out for a walk with Bandit), what do you think about the possibility of Mark Carney taking over the Conservative Party leadership? Is it realistic? He’s from Fort Smith. Imagine a Prime Minister who was actually born in Western Canada. Harper was from Ontario as is Jason Kenney. I hear strains of “When the Whip Comes Down” by the Rolling Stones in my head right now…… Maybe Nigel Wright could come back in come capacity as well…….

#63 Democracy Is Mob Rule on 09.14.18 at 8:37 pm

#52 Millmech on 09.14.18 at 7:39 pm

Yes I am all for wealth redistribution
________________________________________________

If wealth redistribution is good, then debt redistribution should be good too. Everyone’s credit card should go to the same account. At the end of the month, divide the bill by the number of people and everyone should pay an equal amount.

#64 Shawn Allen on 09.14.18 at 8:38 pm

Rent Controls

Thumbs up at 35 says:

you can rent out each one for 2k per month” and the NDP allow you to increase it 4.5% annually.

******************************
Well, the market also has a say in whether the rent can increase.

I believe this should read. “But buyers of this house be warned because the NDP will limit any rent increase to no more than 4.5% annually.”

#65 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 09.14.18 at 8:41 pm

#104 BillyBob
The problem with your observations is they fail to acknowledge that most in multi-family cultures aspire to the Western model of having more space and autonomy. It is not the other way around.
……………………………….

What you say is true, they do aspire to the western model of autonomous living. The Asian economies are growing and people are getting wealthier. But for most people it is just a dream at this point. Multi family households are the norm for the vast majority…..We on the other hand seem to be slipping further and further into debt and our standard of living is eroding.Many people of retirement age with no pension or savings will have a hard time here, just ask Garth hehhe. And many of their offspring are having a hard time leaving the nest. The answer seems clear, we will have multi generational housing and single people will have roommates as our historical standard of living slips away.

#66 Drill Baby Drill on 09.14.18 at 8:46 pm

#48 Retired in Kelowna
You are absolutely right. C69 is an abomination disguised as a protection of Canadian resources and environment. The West especially Alberta has been suffering from the effects of “Politics of Envy” for many many decades. The constitution gives the provinces the rights over resource development. The feds have never liked this obviously and have been trying to abate or scuttle Alberta’s wealth any way they can. Remember NEP well C69 is the days latest attempt. If the Feds had jurisdiction over resource development there would be no C69 or carbon tax nor NEP for that matter. In Alberta we have lived with this “politics of Envy” for at least 3 generations. Currently Alberta donates $10B loonies to equalization the vast percentage of which goes to Quebec.

#67 John on 09.14.18 at 8:54 pm

Who should pay for public services when a greenfield is developed?

#68 ImGonnaBeSick on 09.14.18 at 8:55 pm

Danny i have a sneaky suspicion that your real name Angrya Horwath?

Get over it mate, Dougie won and he’s hellbent on cleaning up and clearing out.

#69 Dolce Vita on 09.14.18 at 8:55 pm

#17 Stan Brooks

“when total debt goes over 300 % of GDP, the economic depression becomes inevitable.
We are close to 400 %.”

No dung Sherlock. Business cycles. No one knows WHEN the economic shock will be to cause a recession. Why your guy hedges.

-2008-9 cause was the global financial crisis.
-Early 90s cause was the monetary policy of high interest rates to quell rising house prices, tax cuts, lower interest rates and high confidence.
-Early 80s was higher inflation, interest rates, and underemployment which lead to RE speculation and high borrowing rates quelled by very high interest rates (BoC = 21% Aug. 1981).

The hedge fund guy is correct to look at debt as that is 1 of the common threads in each of the above recessions.

It is not the only thread.

Mixed in the above recessions was the OPEC oil price shocks, a negative US current account balance, Windfall Profits Tax, NEP, and of course very high interest rates.

It is an external or home spun (shoot yourself in the foot) economic shock that brings it all crashing down – per the above.

Debt is a precursor for certain and the ability of people and business to pay.

To say we are ripe for the picking is child’s play; however, the question is WHEN?

I say it has begun in earnest this quarter (correcting to starting to crash RE prices), early 1st Qtr next year crashing RE prices. It = recession. Hand in hand with each other.

If that external shock = Trump Auto Tariffs, crash in RE prices inevitable along with a deep recession, 10 years to dig ourselves out of it.

Then I would agree with your “big, smelly doo doo” hyperbole comment and not before.

#70 Dolce Vita on 09.14.18 at 9:14 pm

Re: #59 Dolce Vita in response to #25 Is housing really dropping? As compared to what.

I forgot to mention that last year, end of 2017 people were still posting here about what genius RE investors they where stating they still made money having bought a mere 2 years ago.

No such posts anymore; hence:

“In 2017 people said: I bought in 2015 and broke even = 2 years ago.”

1 down.

More to come.

#71 Remembrancer on 09.14.18 at 9:34 pm

#45 Nonplused on 09.14.18 at 6:54 pm
That’s one thing the US has over Canada with their 30 year mortgages…
—————————————————————

If I had to pick one thing, it would be tax deductible interest…

#72 S on 09.14.18 at 9:40 pm

The People’s Party of Canada. How prophetic… Bernier gets any more traction with his nonsense by the end of Justin Trudeau’s second term this country will be referred to as People’s Republic of Canada. Marx and Engels are smiling today.

#73 Russ on 09.14.18 at 9:53 pm

The Real Mark
My wazoo is a kazoo,
in mom’s basement,
and at the kid’s zoo.

Oh, and my Chromebook has Wi-Fi and BlewToot. Top that, imposter!

————————————————

Here ya go R M

https://empiremusic.ca/index.php?route=product/isearch&search=wazoo&description=true

#74 pay your taxes on 09.14.18 at 10:12 pm

#44 debtslave creator

My God man (or woman)!

I’ve followed this blog for a while now and your posts are consistently the most negative drivel I’ve read on any blog. Is there any joy in your life? Please share one happy thought with us, just one so that we know you’re a real person.

Go outside, get some fresh air and if at all possible – play with a puppy. That kind of love and fun is sure to change anyone’s perspective.

#75 DON on 09.14.18 at 10:15 pm

#23 YVR rents are flatlined on 09.14.18 at 5:43 pm

http://vancitycondoguide.com/rent-price-growth-flatlined/

Rent Prices in Vancouver have Flatlined

“However, as the real estate market begins to slow, while simultaneously new construction ramps up (currently at all time highs in Vancouver), vacancy rates increase and rent prices begin to fall as an abundance of new supply overwhelms the market.”
***************

Is flatlined akin to cutting all the way through a big fir tree….TIMMMMBERRrrrrrr

Lane way houses, multiple suite houses, tons of basesment suites all over the place especially in the trendy areas of Vancouver.

And changing sentiment…That’s a Triple Lindy Yikes!

Household debt creeping higher (hot of the press) Did I mention Yikes!

#76 steerage steward on 09.14.18 at 10:16 pm

As Garth well knows you don’t get elected by trying to drum sense into the electorate.

Equally well known is that decisions aren’t made by a misinformed and distracted electorate. Our Lizard People masters will work this out.

Sorry couldn’t help it, the muni election has been so silly, hopefully my silliness won’t hurt (or help).

#77 Myra Andrews on 09.14.18 at 10:17 pm

Stats for Greater Vancouver from realtor Paul Boenisch

Sept 14 New 143 Sold 85 TI: 13,239
Sept 13 New 225 Sold 58 TI: 13,240
Sept 12 New 268 Sold 90 TI: 13,147
Sept 11 New 325 Sold 77 TI: 13,057
Sept 10 New 487 Sold 87 TI: 12,916

Sept 7 New 197 Sold 87 TI: 12,681
Sept 5-6 New 609 Sold 195 TI: 12,653
Sept 4 New 498 Sold 53 TI: 12,439

Inventory at the end of August was 12,510

#78 BobC on 09.14.18 at 10:21 pm

It’s hard to believe what’s going up there with your real estate laws.
On top of that is this true Garth? If so are Canadian families still paying? Who gets your money?

https://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/the-un-admits-that-the-paris-climate-deal-was-a-fraud/

#79 pay your taxes on 09.14.18 at 10:25 pm

#47
Remember, if you borrow, the bank fully expects you to pay them back. CMHC can garnish your wages on future earnings and will sue you for any loss. YOU are the one who signs on the dotted line and YOU bear all responsibility any such decision”

Xxxxx_xxxxx

All discharged in bankruptcy.

There’s been no risk and massive reward for those who signed on the dotted line 10 years ago with CMHC as a cosigner. Smart people made themselves judgment proof and rode the wave of prosperity.

#80 DON on 09.14.18 at 10:30 pm

#36 Linda on 09.14.18 at 6:29 pm

‘Is housing really dropping?’ – you make an excellent point that those who bought 4 or more years ago will probably be able to sell for more than they paid for that property despite the recent trend to lower selling prices in many areas. I think that anyone who bought a decade ago will still be able to get at least what they paid, even if current housing prices drop further than expected. The point Garth has made is that those who bought recently, at the ‘top of the market’ are going to be underwater if they try to sell now & depending on how much prices have dropped since their original purchase may in fact find that they will owe more on their mortgage than what they can sell their property for. Hence the outcry from those people in the GTA who purchased as yet to be built homes from a local developer only to see the exact same properties sold to later purchasers for as much as $100,000 less. Despite having freely signed contracts these folks were asking the developer to give back the money they had effectively lost since purchase. The developer apparently offered to adjust the original price by as much as $20,000 but these folks wanted the whole shebang because even before they moved in, they were underwater. However, I’m sure if the prices had continued to climb that these folks would not have felt any need to share any increased value with the developer…..

Bottom line is that most of the fallout applies to 1) those who bought at peak market; 2) those whose finances will not readily support the new mortgage rules upon renewal & who for whatever reason must sell in a falling market & 3) those who ‘must’ sell for whatever reason & who are competing with increased listings who also ‘have’ to sell for whatever reason.
************

and so on and so on – a change in sentiment is a powerful factor and so is Fear of not getting out. Why don’t we wait and watch the rest of this movie.

#81 Denial Stage on 09.14.18 at 10:32 pm

The stage of denial is upon us! RIP Bliss!

#82 Bytor the Snow Dog on 09.14.18 at 10:39 pm

Garth sez:
“Vote Bernier, get Trudeau. That should be the party slogan. – Garth”
————————————-

Shouldn’t that slogan be “Dump Scheer, Vote Bernier”?

Jus’ sayin’.

#83 Risktopia on 09.14.18 at 10:40 pm

This is the 10yr anniversary of the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy. What if you had invested on Lehman Eve?

http://www.risktopia.com/2018/09/what-if-you-invested-on-lehman-eve.html

#84 45north on 09.14.18 at 10:46 pm

Shawn Allen: How should a democratic government react if the top 1% own 50% of the wealth and money?

Millmech: People at my work have no RRSP because they are allowed to pull out both theirs and company contributions once a year which they do and they whine about how broke they will be in retirement. Half the workers at the plant are in this situation after 30-40 yrs of working nothing saved.

I think Millmech is saying that even if everybody started out equal, in one generation, they wouldn’t be.

Jesus said the poor will always be with you.

#85 45north on 09.14.18 at 10:47 pm

Democracy is Mob Rule:

#52 Millmech on 09.14.18 at 7:39 pm
I’m all for wealth redistribution
________________________________________________
If wealth redistribution is good, then debt redistribution should be good too.

sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander

#86 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.14.18 at 10:55 pm

I think cats are capitalists.
Just care about themselves.
Dogs are socialists.
Sucking up to everyone.

#87 Lobster Man on 09.14.18 at 10:55 pm

From “Politics of Envy”,

you get “Politics of Resentment”.

You can see that in their eyes!

#88 DON on 09.14.18 at 11:03 pm

#44 Debtslavecreator on 09.14.18 at 6:50 pm

You’ve seen nothing yet with these radical govt actions – outright near communist actions await us
Ford is an idiot and using the notwithstanding clause is harsh but he is using it to reduce a massively oversized local govt that cannot govern and ford is trying to save taxpayers huge money.
***********************
While I agree with saving taxpayers huge money, we should ensure we use the ‘not withstanding clause’ in the best interests of our democracy not for political reasons or haste.

I expect reasonableness from our leaders.

#89 Gotta Get Out of Calgary on 09.14.18 at 11:05 pm

#50 For those about to flop… on 09.14.18 at 7:33 pm
——————————————————-

Flop, so nice to see you back! Your posts always added a congenial note to the comments which has been missed.

Vancouver housing has no application for me but I appreciated your comments and the efforts you put into your posts.

#90 The Real Mark on 09.14.18 at 11:06 pm

#73 Russ on 09.14.18 at 9:53 pm

Here ya go R M
https://empiremusic.ca/index.php?route=product/isearch&search=wazoo&description=true

Are you sure about that? My wazoo is much heftier than those itty bitty noisemakers, on account of mom stocking crates of Twinkies just for my keyboard time.

However, you would be correct if you argued that my wazoo peaked way back in 2013. Since then, it has been relentless deflation. And my girlfriend says it’s not confined just to my wazoo. Putz.

#91 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.14.18 at 11:10 pm

Not sure why ignorant posters have an issue with at the name People’s Party.
This goes way back to ancient Greece:
Demos Cratus.
And ancient Rome:
Res Publica.
Guess where the two American political parties derive their names from?

#92 HT on 09.14.18 at 11:12 pm

Garth, care to explain what your issue is with the empty homes tax in Vancouver? Nobody is punishing multiple home ownership, if one is so fortunate. But there is hardly a reason to leave it empty amidst a no vacancy crisis within the city limits. You are siding with absentee foreign owners parking money? Who are these folks who have multiple homes in Vancouver and can’t even be bothered to utilize them? Nobody I know. You?

#93 viorelli on 09.14.18 at 11:19 pm

In a not so distant future, most of the kids here in the Greater Vancouver and probably other locations will be forced to work even harder just to survive. It will be rent and eat as long as you can work and not drop proposition by the banks, debt to rent and debt to eat. Many years ago a hard working husband could provide for the entire family while having a backyard, car, hockey, and decent education for kids. Now days you have two common laws without kids, in debt, and broke, while both are working two jobs. Where did it go so wrong? Globalists and outsourcing, gender studies, lack of financial education in schools, entitled offspring who had it too easy and were spoiled by parents, (of course not all of them), me toos, war on toxic masculinity, and credit bubble. We are digging our own grave. The smart ones already packed up and left, some societies are not changing, they are protecting their own.

#94 DON on 09.14.18 at 11:21 pm

#69 Dolce Vita on 09.14.18 at 8:55 pm

#17 Stan Brooks

“To say we are ripe for the picking is child’s play; however, the question is WHEN?”

So we are down to how long the average overly indebted home owner can possibly hang on in our current environment given all the variables.

6 months? longer with a heloc at current valuations?

#95 whiplash on 09.15.18 at 12:05 am

#44 Retired in Kelowna
#66 Drill Baby Drill

“If the goal is to curtail oil and gas production and to have “no” more pipelines built, this legislation may hit the mark,” Chris Bloomer head of the Canadian Energy Pipeline Association.
Bill C-69 is 400 pages in length and contains mainly four key elements gender diversity, first nations, climate change and environmental impact assessment. Minority interest groups have again highjacked what should be a technical process into a nightmare of regulations. In other words another version of the NEP that was shoved down out throats by Pierre Trudeau.

#96 Ace Goodheart on 09.15.18 at 12:08 am

I read what was suupsed to be a funny I suppose comment about toddlers. I have 99 problems and my toddler is responsible for 98.99 of them.

I was thinking people could learn a lot from their toddlers.

A toddler is just raw human desire coupled with the mobility that babies sadly lack and the ability to scream like a pterodactyl. No fear. No inhibitions. A toddler is what everyone is trying for when they get their Saturday night drink on. Pure toddler is the ultimate buzz. We get to be like this for max three years of our lives, which probably are the best three years ever, and then it all falls apart with Junior kindergarten and social skills and peer pressure. Everyone secretly wants those toddler years back. It is why the govt can sell us so much expensive alcohol.

So learn from your toddlers. Screaming is cool. Even cooler if you can sound like a prehistoric bird. It’s fun to break stuff. You are immortal. Drooling is good times. Throw your food around. Random temper tantrums don’t mean you have mental health problems and need medication they are just your way of expressing yourself.

We can learn a lot from toddlers

#97 325 Trillion on 09.15.18 at 12:10 am

Hedges in one of his upbeat pieces!

https://www.truthdig.com/articles/conjuring-up-the-next-depression/

#98 NJGeezer on 09.15.18 at 12:42 am

Hello Flop,
Have missed your posts lately. Longtime lurker.

Really appreciate your tribute to Boom. He was one of my favorite posters here, and i miss him too. Keep up the good work. You too Garth.

God Bless “Retired Boomer WI”

#99 Stan Brooks on 09.15.18 at 2:40 am

#46 Democracy Is Mob Rule on 09.14.18 at 6:57 pm
#28 Stan Brooks on 09.14.18 at 5:57 pm

Huge supper bubble in everything
—————————————–

Huge increase in money supply (purchasing power) due to quantitative easing.

Huge increase in debt (purchasing power) due to low interest rates.

The money has to go somewhere.

It is not money, it is debt, it has to be repaid.

=======================

#69 Dolce Vita on 09.14.18 at 8:55 pm

If that external shock = Trump Auto Tariffs, crash in RE prices inevitable along with a deep recession, 10 years to dig ourselves out of it.

Then I would agree with your “big, smelly doo doo” hyperbole comment and not before.

US was in deep smelly doo doo 10 years ago and our ‘business’ cycle is running for 10 years longer with all sorts of ‘incentives’ and tricks including ‘mortgage insurance’. So crash we will. It is inevitable. There is no free lunch, somebody has to pay.

The external shock will be just the excuse to blame somebody else.

It is almost impossible to predict the exact moment of the crash, some thought it was 10 years ago. It is a function of the stupidity of the sheeple and this sheeple keeps surprising us, so who knows?

=========================


#74 pay your taxes on 09.14.18 at 10:12 pm
#44 debtslave creator

My God man (or woman)!

I’ve followed this blog for a while now and your posts are consistently the most negative drivel I’ve read on any blog. Is there any joy in your life? Please share one happy thought with us, just one so that we know you’re a real person.

Go outside, get some fresh air and if at all possible – play with a puppy. That kind of love and fun is sure to change anyone’s perspective.

It looks pretty accurate in my view. It is hard to accept that one is just a sheep in the herd and is expected to produce a lot of stuff for somebody else’s consumption but just try to avoid going with the flow and see what happens. All these leftist agendas are just a way to keep you scared and obedient.

#100 BigAl in Ont (Original) on 09.15.18 at 3:00 am

“In-demand, desirable areas are ones populated with single-family homes, not triplexes. Figure it out. – Garth”

Personal/cultural bias with little basis in reality in today’s cities and burbs.

#101 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 09.15.18 at 7:56 am

Premier John Horgan wants people in British Columbia to take a “leap of faith” and vote in favour of changing the province’s electoral system this fall.

Horgan told municipal politicians at the annual Union of B.C. municipalities convention in Whistler that the current system of electing provincial governments must be amended to ensure political parties with 40 per cent of the vote no longer hold 100 per cent of the power.

The premier says he will be out strongly campaigning in favour of a Yes vote in B.C.’s electoral reform referendum.

A mail-in ballot referendum set to conclude Nov. 30 will give voters the opportunity to choose between three forms of proportional representation or support the current first-past-the-post system of electing governments.

Horgan says the time has come for voters in B.C. to change the electoral system.

#102 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.15.18 at 9:00 am

@#50 Flop and #77 Myra

Always enjoy the stats.
Keep up the good work

shout out to Boom
M57BC

#103 MF on 09.15.18 at 9:03 am

72 S on 09.14.18 at 9:40 pm

No it’s a good name. It’s good because the stupidity of it matches the stupidity of his platform.

A whole political party based on the jealous tendencies of one guy who is still sour because he didn’t win a trophy and is throwing a temper tantrum. Political scorched earth.

Trudeau is loving it. The people willing to vote for this party are throwing their votes away….and that’s the plan.

MF

#104 crossbordershopper on 09.15.18 at 9:03 am

crazy, in the us no one rents out their basement to a stranger for money? like what. man Canada is a weird place where the south asians all come with this crazy multi family, stranger in their basement to help with the mortgage. The mortgage interest is non deductible, (the smith maneuver biggest drawback is no one has the portfolio to swap out) .
Does anyone wonder while their asleep if the clown in the basement after crazy noises with their friends, is going to get drunk and torch the place while their asleep. and i have a daughter, i am not trusting some guy lving in my house with vulnerable children around.
paranoid. perhaps, but americans in general would never live the pathetic life that most Canadians do.
direct flights to fort lauderdale from hamilton $149 one way tax in canadian on swoop.
start your life where you will live better, and end up with something,
the neighbour up the street, 80 year old guy cutting his own lawn that place is probably a million, i kinda laughed, ya your rich dude, 80 years old cutting his own lawn to save 20 bucks. as he lives in his million dollar home, or prison as i like to refer to it as. Since he never leaves, he is always home.
i spoke with him said come to florida, i might as well asked him if he wants to go on the space x travel mission to the moon. i know my prison, l like my prison why would i leave, im sorry house.
people simply dont know what they dont know.

#105 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 09.15.18 at 9:13 am

A mail-in ballot referendum set to conclude Nov. 30 will give voters the opportunity to choose between three forms of proportional representation or support the current first-past-the-post system of electing governments.

And here is an example of how it might work:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Two-round_system

#106 Braj on 09.15.18 at 9:51 am

#72 S on 09.14.18 at 9:40 pm
The People’s Party of Canada. How prophetic… Bernier gets any more traction with his nonsense by the end of Justin Trudeau’s second term this country will be referred to as People’s Republic of Canada. Marx and Engels are smiling today.

***

LOL. Bernier is the only chance Canada has.

#107 Bdwy sktn on 09.15.18 at 11:07 am

80 years old cutting his own lawn to save 20 bucks.

………..
I cut the grass at all of my places. Fully paid off 2+mil. I only hope I can still do it at 80. Good free exercise. I also do the lawn of the young busy dad across the street. Roughly 90/ hr cash. ( he likely has a millon plus mtge)
I also do the old guy next door for free and sometimes even the kids place on the other side
when they neglect it (darn renters)

Be useful or die.

#108 Shawn Allen on 09.15.18 at 11:10 am

Inequality is Okay… To a point

84 45north on 09.14.18 at 10:46 pm quoted:

Shawn Allen: How should a democratic government react if the top 1% own 50% of the wealth and money?

Millmech: People at my work have no RRSP because they are allowed to pull out both theirs and company contributions once a year which they do and they whine about how broke they will be in retirement. Half the workers at the plant are in this situation after 30-40 yrs of working nothing saved.

45 North then said:

I think Millmech is saying that even if everybody started out equal, in one generation, they wouldn’t be.

Jesus said the poor will always be with you.

**************************************

What 45North says is absolutely true.

Our economic system creates incentives to work hard and create wealth and a fairly large degree of inequality is absolutely necessary to create the incentives.

But at some point it can go too far. How much wealth should be allowed to flow to the next generation?

If it ended up that 1% or possibly more like 0.01% end up owning 50% of the wealth has that gone to far.

Decades ago most middle class kids probably felt that they could definitely achieve a comfortable life better than their parents and many or most may have felt they could become quite wealthy if they tried very hard to do so. And they were right.

Today, is that still the case? The economic system will never ever achieve equal outcomes. Was it achieving fair outcomes 50 years ago? Is it still doing so?

Fair outcomes are very hard to judge. Fair economic incentives and outcomes are not automatic.

Sometimes taxes need to be lowered on some people. At other times and situations taxes need to be raised on some people and some forms of income.

Too much inequality and too little opportunity for too many young people leads to a break down in civil society. Are we there yet?

I am not sure that we have too much inequality, too little opportunity for youth. But it is fair to think about it. It is fair for disadvantaged young people to raise the question.

#109 Oft deleted much maligned stock.picker on 09.15.18 at 11:45 am

Wait just a minute……I call bullshit. A property management company does not have any license to authorize a real estate agent to do business on their behalf…..a real estate agent is a sub-agent of a licensed broker manager under section 9.15 of the Real Estate Act. That does not describe a property manager. Who carries the E&O insurance for the sub-agent?

These joker’s are running some kind of scam and should be reported.

#110 I'm Voting PeePee on 09.15.18 at 11:47 am

The People’s Party Rocks!

This will be a scheer wipeout. And justin time to kiss the drama teach goodbye forever!

PeePee for you and me !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

It’s always interesting, and depressing, how naive people (like you) can be. – Garth

#111 Linda on 09.15.18 at 11:54 am

‘Millmech’ – don’t worry about your generation receiving money from the government. Vote buying is a tried & true political tactic by every party as they strive to keep power by being voted back in or achieve power by winning the next election. Of course it isn’t called ‘vote buying’ but that is what it is & everyone knows it.

Apparently the Millennial generation is now the biggest slice of the population, not the Boomers & since this is 2018, most if not all should be eligible to vote. Therefore there will be plenty of largesse being promised to Millennials come the next election. Expect that trend to continue for as long as that generation makes up the largest cohort of voters.

The main reason Boomers still get plenty of attention is that they tend to vote in greater numbers. They also by default tend to have more assets because they’ve had more time to accumulate them. So for now governments will continue to court the Boomers. As Boomers die off & as the Millennials inherit or accumulate wealth in turn, governments will naturally spend more time wooing the group they see as having the greatest ability to vote them in.

Just remember that a promise will not necessarily become a reality. Political promises by definition are only words. It is only when those words are written into a Bill & voted into existence that they mean anything.

#112 IHCTD9 on 09.15.18 at 11:56 am

#93 viorelli on 09.14.18 at 11:19 pm
In a not so distant future, most of the kids here in the Greater Vancouver and probably other locations will be forced to work even harder just to survive. It will be rent and eat as long as you can work and not drop proposition by the banks, debt to rent and debt to eat. Many years ago a hard working husband could provide for the entire family while having a backyard, car, hockey, and decent education for kids. Now days you have two common laws without kids, in debt, and broke, while both are working two jobs. Where did it go so wrong? Globalists and outsourcing, gender studies, lack of financial education in schools, entitled offspring who had it too easy and were spoiled by parents, (of course not all of them), me toos, war on toxic masculinity, and credit bubble. We are digging our own grave. The smart ones already packed up and left, some societies are not changing, they are protecting their own
——————

Here is a more likely scenario: The youth will just leave, just like the did in Greece. Kids are more mobile every generation. The worse things get, the more kids will pack up and bail.

Outside of looney bins like the GVRD, a couple making even just minimum wage can buy a house and live decently. I’ve shown the math on this here several times. These smaller areas are also pleasantly void of most of the SJW and hard left afflictions that have infected our larger cities, so win/win.

Fact is, many younger folks love the big urban areas for reasons attributable to youth, so it’s expected they will suffer to some degree if they think it’s worth it. Just a matter of how much, and for how long. Age and circumstances will eventually bring the big picture into focus, but it will be too late by then for most who chose the road of suffering.

IMHO, a Western dude/ette has from graduation day till 40 years old to build a life for themselves. If you arrive at 40 without a mostly paid off house, and with no savings – or heaven forbid – a pile of debt, you’re screwed. All the advantages of youth and time have exited stage left. Tailwinds peter out at 40, and it’s all uphill from there. It’ll be exponentially more difficult to hit 65 in a good place when you start at 40 compared to starting at 25.

#113 dharma bum on 09.15.18 at 12:03 pm

It’s snowing in Red Deer.

And cold too.

But the rent is cheap!

Just moved my kid into a beauty apartment for a third of the cost of similar digs in the big city.

Lotsa freaks around here though.

#114 LP on 09.15.18 at 12:33 pm

#104crossbordershopper on 09.15.18 at 9:03 am

people simply dont know what they dont know.
**********************************

Or to put it another way, they don’t want what you want. A world of difference!

#115 AGuyIn Vancouver on 09.15.18 at 12:46 pm

#27 BC housing crisis on 09.14.18 at 5:54 pm
To oncebittwiceshy
You are quoting statistics. Which are meaningless
I am giving you actually facts from two days ago,
How can you dispute my facts? You are quoting listings are rising, balanced market. But when you looking. At housing and 12out of 20sold in a week, do you call that balanced.?…

_ _ _
Nice try, Realtor.

#116 IHCTD9 on 09.15.18 at 12:47 pm

#107 Bdwy sktn on 09.15.18 at 11:07 am
80 years old cutting his own lawn to save 20 bucks.

………..
I cut the grass at all of my places. Fully paid off 2+mil. I only hope I can still do it at 80. Good free exercise. I also do the lawn of the young busy dad across the street. Roughly 90/ hr cash. ( he likely has a millon plus mtge)
I also do the old guy next door for free and sometimes even the kids place on the other side
when they neglect it (darn renters)

Be useful or die
——-

My Dad and my Father in law both practise the B.U.O.D. Religion. Both still heat with wood and look after their own properties 100%. Hell, Dad still works part time doing property maintenance for other even more elderly folks. Both these guys are late 70’s.

BUT, the time will come when it’s time to park the mowers for good.

A few weeks ago, I was driving along and saw my first robot mower doing it’s job on about a half acre lot. I pulled over to watch. It was amazing – quiet, no dust and grass blowing all over the place, no tire tracked grass flattened by a half ton mower, the lawn looked amazing. Better job was being done with no effort expended by the owner, and with none of the racket and other drawbacks associated with a gas tractor/push mower, and for half the price of what I paid for my Simplicity Broadmoor.

I drove away knowing someday soon, this would be what everyone would be buying. There was no downside unless you love sitting on a loud dusty machine that sounds like a helicopter taking off. The lawn mowing exploits of our youth and aged alike are not going to last too much longer.

I think the future is going to require much less work for all walks of life, just not sure if this is good or not. It is going to happen either way if technology presents more arguments like that robot mower does. It’s just a no brainer.

#117 S on 09.15.18 at 1:06 pm

#103 MF on 09.15.18 at 9:03 am

72 S on 09.14.18 at 9:40 pm

No it’s a good name. It’s good because the stupidity of it matches the stupidity of his platform.

A whole political party based on the jealous tendencies of one guy who is still sour because he didn’t win a trophy and is throwing a temper tantrum. Political scorched earth.

Trudeau is loving it. The people willing to vote for this party are throwing their votes away….and that’s the plan.

MF
————————————————-
Correct. And prophetic!

#106 Braj on 09.15.18 at 9:51 am

LOL. Bernier is the only chance Canada has.
————————————————

Yes. A chance to become Venezuela.

#118 Marco on 09.15.18 at 1:47 pm

envy is a deadly sin and just distribution of wealth is called socialism or worse. So break the spin of the poor and import more refugees. That is sane business proposal. Gllobaly, human life is so cheap…

#119 Tamsen on 09.15.18 at 5:50 pm

Not sure if this has been posted here yet. Note the gap between required income and actual income …

https://www.vancouverisawesome.com/2018/09/12/unaffordable-homes-vancouver-infographic/

#120 Bby renter on 09.15.18 at 8:04 pm

Welcome back Flop!

#121 Remembrancer on 09.15.18 at 8:18 pm

#110 I’m Voting PeePee on 09.15.18 at 11:47 am

The People’s Party Rocks!

This will be a scheer wipeout. And justin time to kiss the drama teach goodbye forever!

PeePee for you and me !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

It’s always interesting, and depressing, how naive people (like you) can be. – Garth
——————————————————————-
As much better than me have said:

“Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others.”

Unfortunately PeePee comes with the territory. As an aside, was walking by a random couple discussing something this evening and when I heard her say “its our job to support our government no matter what”, I just held my tongue, quickened my pace and said a silent prayer for western civilization…

#122 Smoking Man on 09.16.18 at 12:43 am

Retirement. Been there done that when I moved to Shlong Branch.

Bored out of my mind. Code smiths and algorithm traders never retire.

We just get to live in cool spots , move around a bit.
The islands are next. Tax free…..

#123 Shawn on 09.16.18 at 4:30 pm

Come on you know it’s true. The irony is that people will likely need LESS $ in the future compared to past generations of retirees. As governments become more socialist, more gets paid for (ie national pharmacare, homecare, etc.).

Additionally technology is demonitizing and reducing the cost of many things that used to consume a large % of spending (ie telecommunications, healthcare, education, travel planning, many forms of entertainment, etc).

That’s nice that your grandmother lives in a $5000/month home. However 1/3 of retirement beds in Niagara priced at ~$1800/month are vacant while more retirement homes are being built.

#124 majik on 09.16.18 at 5:11 pm

112 IHCTD9
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Nobody born in the last 40 years has purchased a house before they are 30. So by the time they hit 40 they are only starting to make headway in a mortgage if they have one. They probably have a few young sprogs too and have probably just only recently exited from a mountain of educational debt. The idea that people are buying properties at 25 and are all settled down by 40 is a concept rooted in the distant past.

Yes there are outliers to this, those that received inheritance early or a loan from mom and pop or maybe the FIRE crowd. But the general trend is that people spend more of their early years enjoying their youth rather than thinking of retirement. In fact they don’t think of retirement at all or very little. Many are in creative, fun and exciting career fields that allow them more flexibility than previous generations had. Why stop working at 65 or 70? Life expectancies are increasing dramatically in all Western countries. In 2030 Canada will be the nation leading global life expectancies for men over 65.

My parents generation retired by 55 or 60 because by that age they were old and in not great physical shape. When I look at historical pictures of people in their 30s or 40s from 1970s or 1980s I whince at how old they all look. They were so unhealthy compared to the avocado toast generation of today. This current generation of 30-40 year olds will still be doing “useful” things when they get to their 70s, except it will be far more useful things than being retired and doing manual labour in the garden.