The end of innocence

Last Christmas, when we were still innocent and Bitcoin was testing $20,000, this pathetic blog was also prophetic. Bitcoin, we said, was the new dot-com. The end result would be the same.

So I get digital money. Who doesn’t? How many people still carry folding money, ever write a cheque or go to a physical bank? A dwindling number. In time, none. I also understand how moisters who have grown up taught to be afraid of stocks and realize they can’t afford real estate would be drawn to cryptos. In large part, they own this market. They constitute the millions of retail investors who have been pouring billions into Bitcoin and its clones on the faith that it’s the future. And in that, a huge parallel with the dot-com bubble of 18 years ago. We know how that ended, even though the underlying principle – that the whole world would go online – was totally valid.

So while cryptocurrencies have legs – the Bank of Canada is investigating creating one of its own and Bitcoin ETFs will soon appear – the current trading platforms and valuations could turn to dust before long. The sheep are doing predictable things – flocking to anything that promises rapid gains with renegade genes. The current story illustrating this is of the Long Island Tea Corp, whose stock jumped 289% when it renamed itself the Long Blockchain Corp. Hey kids, maybe you should Google pets.com.

Like dot-coms with cool ideas, CEOs on skateboards and no profits, cryptos are not valued based on traditional metrics. Most investors wouldn’t know a blockchain if they fell over one. The market is completely driven by speculation. It’s gambling, not investing. The surprise which awaits the buyers when they decide to become sellers will be epic. As the financial professionals move in – and it’s happening – the kids will end up being someone’s lunch. The coolness and technological elegance of the underlying asset will not matter one whit. Early speculators are often rewarded. Later ones are always spanked.

Bitcoin, Litecoin, bitcoin cash, ethereum, ripple and whatever’s next may be new. Human nature is not. And the young must learn the same stuff over and again. It’s not different this time.

Nope, it’s not different. But it’s worse. While the tech-heavy Nasdaq shed a stunning 78% of its value as the Internet bubble burst in 2000, cryptocurrencies as a group have erased lost 80%.  And the losses aren’t over. Some of these puppies could go to zero.

The parallels are profound. Yes, blockchain is just as promising as the World Wide Web was almost two decades ago. A game-changing technology with a myriad of applications will undoubtedly alter the way so much is done, making it cheaper, more effective, secure and reliable. Just like online connectivity has come to connect your refrigerator and your car, or let Siri tell you what to wear.

But when it comes to investing, some things never change. Speculation, greed, ambition and bravado can easily propel assets beyond their intrinsic values. Combine that with endless, irresponsible and unregulated hype, plus investor naiveté and ignorance, and the die is cast. It was evident from the early days of the BTC explosion that cryptos would hurt a lot of people. Sadly, most of them are kids with no financial reserves. And billions in trades were put on credit cards. Ouch.

It was always clear regulators, central banks, organized financial markets and national governments would not allow alternative currencies to thrive. The intense volatility of cryptos has made them inherently useless as a medium of exchange, and events of the last year have shown they’re no storehouse of value. In short, worthless. But at least you learned something. Maybe.

$   $  $

Markets are saying there’s an eight-in-ten chance the cost of money will go up again next month. It would be the fifth increase in about a year for the Bank of Canada, and come despite the sucky job numbers delivered last last week.

Face it: the bankers have no choice. The current CB rate is negative – less than than inflation (at 3%). Our guys have raised rates four times while the Fed has pulled the trigger on seven occasions. We’re way behind the curve in terms of normalizing the cost of money from the historic lows hit after the GFC.

Soon we’ll be even further back as the Fed’s expected to lift its benchmark rate twice more before the end of the year, plus another two by the summer of 2019. Yes, blame Trump. The American economy is running hot thanks to his massive (and probably dangerous) corporate tax cut, serious deregulation, and a trade war that’s increasing inflation and goosing jobs.

So, we can resist cuts, watch the loonie flounder and import American inflation (without the growth), or keep gradually increasing rates. Markets are getting ready for the latter. You should, too.

$  $  $

Silly us. We thought when the Toronto Real Estate Board resoundingly lost a seven-year legal battle to blind consumers to market stats (being shut down repeatedly by the courts and censored by the federal government) that it would capitulate. We all believed a new day of transparency was coming, that citizens would finally see beyond realtor claims and fibs and make their own informed decisions on price and value.

But, alas, no such deal. These guys refuse to die.

Zoocasa just received one  of those miserable cease-and-desist letters threatening to take away its access to MLS info if it continues to publish it, even in a password-protected state. TREB argues that after being spanked by the Supreme Court in August it has 60 days to prepare for the release of its data. And many lawyers.

Not. Holding, Breath.

About the picture...

Steve writes: “This is Buddy. He’s my first dog. Buddy is 12 and unfortunately he’s got heart disease. Our vet gave him one year, which was six months ago. Fortunately, our family lives well below our means and never ever tried to show our worth through excessive material things. That’s allowed us to engage a cardiologist for Buddy and give him a longer and/or more comfortable life. He gets a walk every day. He’s smiling here because he knows he’s about to get a little piece of pizza.”

125 comments ↓

#1 Toronto Real Estate Update on 09.12.18 at 4:31 pm

TRUE OR FALSE (searching for a grain of truth in the unsubstantiated claims of those who “are not realtors” in the GTA)

“This is not going back to easy days of cheap housing and rents now that GTA is a global, growing and world class city.

History has shown over and over again that house prices never fall in global, world class cities. It just doesn’t happen. It doesn’t happen because it’s impossible. That’s why it doesn’t happen.

And it won’t happen in the GTA. Renters will never get what they want. Their pathetic dreams of lower house prices in the GTA will never happen. They need to buy now.

The fact that global, world class cities never see housing price corrections is rooted in factual history. And the US housing melt totally showed how true this really is and how bad things suck for renters who pathetically wait for the impossible.

Fact is US global, world class cities experienced minor blips that amounted to nothing while smaller, non global and non world class cities went through huge price corrections that completely flattened the jungle.”

*****************************

FACT: Hundreds of years of world housing bubble history shows that prices in (both big and small) bubble cities always revert back to the long-term mean. And it never happens in a slow, safe, gentle, controlled, harmless manner. The US housing melt demonstrated that big bubble cities always go through major corrections/crashes.

US CITIES – PRICE DECLINE (%) (after 2006/08):

(Arguably) GLOBAL, WORLD CLASS CITIES (where prices never fall):

* San Francisco, California (-45%)… (in 3 short years)
* San Diego, California (-42%) * Phoenix, Arizona (-56%)
* Miami, Florida (-55%) * Los Angeles, California (-41%)

NON GLOBAL, NON WORLD CLASS CITIES:

* Bismarck, North Dakota (-1%)
* Shreveport, Louisiana (-1%)
* Amarillo, Texas (-2%) * Cedar Rapids, Iowa (-2%)
* Davenport, Iowa (-2%) * Fargo, North Dakota (-2%)
* Texarkana, Arkansas (-2%)
* Oklahoma City, Oklahoma (-3%)
* Rapid City, South Dakota (-3%) * Wichita, Kansas (-4%)
* Great Falls, Montana (-4%) * Billings, Montana (-4%)
* San Antonio, Texas (-4%) * Little Rock, Arkansas: (-4%)
* Lexington, Kentucky (-4%) * Austin, Texas (-4%)
* Sioux Falls, South Dakota (-4%)
* Omaha, Nebraska (-5%) * Tulsa, Oklahoma (-5%)
* Louisville, Kentucky (-6%) * Des Moines, Iowa (-7%)
* Jackson, Mississippi (-7%) * Madison, Wisconsin (-8%)

(Sources: Case-Shiller Index, All-Transactions House Price Index)

#2 CHERRY BLOSSOM on 09.12.18 at 4:40 pm

Banks will be the ultimate culprits of Canadas’ financial demise. They encourage borrowing to uninformed people and push credit cards on anyone with a heartbeat. Soon people will just be paying interest only just to stay afloat. People will not have any disposable money to spend on anything creating a further downward spiral of large and small retail business

I hope that Trump instructs all the Canadian Banks to leave the USA.

#3 Stan Brooks on 09.12.18 at 4:44 pm

…So while cryptocurrencies have legs – the Bank of Canada is investigating creating one of its own

In my mind loonie is already a cryptocurrency for quite a while, worth exactly as the trust in BoC and it’s boss, i.e. not much.

So why do they need another one? Let me guess: To use it to prop up the loooooooooooooooonie?


…We all believed a new day of transparency was coming, that citizens would finally see beyond realtor claims and fibs and make their own informed decisions on price and value.

sigh… a deeper sigh, the deepest sigh, the deepest ever sigh…

Smart people and yet that naive.

There will never ever be transparency in real estate in Canada. Never Ever. Whatever ”data’ they publish will be obscured in every possible way.


…Silly us.

Not me. I proudly exclude myself from the majority.

#4 Andrewski on 09.12.18 at 4:52 pm

It’s been said before, but it’s astounding that the Real Estate Boards can obfuscate their data, unlike the Investment industry which is so much more tightly regulated with providing so much data & information. Why can the RE boards do this?!

#5 Reality is stark on 09.12.18 at 4:54 pm

As in all things when you can control your lust you win.
Never buy into the hype whether it is housing, bitcoin or marriage.
If they will let you rent, rent. It is always cheaper and more satisfying. When something doesn’t work out you can move on to the next and usually get something better and less worn out.

#6 paul on 09.12.18 at 4:55 pm

Like Garth says you can’t buy time, this is what boomers want.
Take a minuet have a look.

https://www.youtube.com/embed/nSC7SXQpInM?rel=0

#7 Sask to AB on 09.12.18 at 5:23 pm

re #6 paul on 09.12.18 at 4:55 pm

Thanks for sharing that, it was great.

#8 yvrguy on 09.12.18 at 5:27 pm

Hey HHCE, check out this SHYSTER…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HPe26I8U_bM

Nothing to see here in YVR! No biggy… Just buy and hold! He’s always buying too!!

According to this SHYSTER detached has only “cooled off” and lauds financial suicide via bidding wars on 1bdrm chicken coups this late in the credit cycle. LOL!

He should have a chat with his pal Saretsky.

#9 Dolce Vita on 09.12.18 at 5:33 pm

There will be more rate hikes coming. 6/10 chance my butt.

It’s not only US inflation we are importing, it’s also our own Government’s tariffs raising the price of imported goods.

$286.5 MM raked in by Ottawa since July 1.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/surtax-retaliatory-trump-imports-cbsa-1.4815400

It will take time to show up in prices. Expect more rate hikes to keep inflation at bay, more than expected.

But hey, Morneau says the money will be funneled to Canadian industries hit by the Trump tariffs.

Like that will help the Canadian consumer and save job losses.

How to shoot oneself in the foot, Canadian style.

#10 Penny Henny on 09.12.18 at 5:51 pm

#1 Toronto Real Estate Update on 09.12.18 at 4:31 pm
//////////////////

Hey VREU how are prices doing in Victoria.
I believe you called a crash 3 or 4 years ago.
How’s that going?

#11 Damifino on 09.12.18 at 5:53 pm

How many people still carry folding money, ever write a cheque or go to a physical bank? A dwindling number.
———————————–

Well… I do. And you’re quite correct. Like the Wicked Witch of the West, I’m ‘dwindling’ in a puff of steam.

But I’m not a Luddite. I’m as connected as most. I just happen to like cash for some things. Say anything under $50. It’s fun to pay with cash and there’s no peripheral baggage attached. Post-dated checks are great for paying rent. Here’s a few month’s worth. See you later.

Also, I find myself saying the word ‘no’ a lot…

May we have your e-mail? No.
Do you collect bonus points? No
Want an ‘exclusive member’ card? No.
Will you take a survey? No.
Super-size that? No.
Two for one? No.
Scratch and win? No.

‘No’ is still a very misunderstood answer. Most merchants think it really means “convince me”.

#12 ts on 09.12.18 at 5:55 pm

@ #6 Paul Thanks for sharing the video. That was awesome.

#13 Parksville Prankster on 09.12.18 at 6:10 pm

According to the Huff, we’re now down to 37th place from 4th place globally for the hottest residential real estate market.

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2018/09/12/worlds-hottest-housing-markets-canada_a_23525123/?utm_hp_ref=ca-homepage

#14 Muttley O'Toole on 09.12.18 at 6:13 pm

Consequences – blog heading yesterday, but in respect to the content I couldn’t post this:

Oh My – Canadian Foreign Minister Left NAFTA Negotiations To Attend “President Trump is a Tyrant” Conference…
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2018/09/11/oh-my-canadian-foreign-minister-left-nafta-negotiations-to-attend-president-trump-is-a-tyrant-conference/

I reckon this will have CONSEQUENCES – I thought Canadian gov. ministers would think to put Canadian interests first – apparently not so.

#15 reynolds531 on 09.12.18 at 6:17 pm

Buddy says

“Hey Primates… it’s not the size of the dog in the fight. See you next year.”

#16 Dogman01 on 09.12.18 at 6:26 pm

Hi Garth
NY Times article on FIRE, they reference your two moister clients.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/01/style/fire-financial-independence-retire-early.html

#17 Ronaldo on 09.12.18 at 6:28 pm

#6 Paul

Great video. Brought back lots of memories. Thank you.

#18 Mattl on 09.12.18 at 6:32 pm

The banks and their regulators are obsessed with KYC and AML. An anonymous ledger like Bitcoin never had a chance in hell of scaling up. Its biggest strength – anonymity – will be its downfall.

#19 Stan Brooks on 09.12.18 at 6:40 pm

#6 paul on 09.12.18 at 4:55 pm
Like Garth says you can’t buy time

=======================

You can actually buy time:
https://www.iflscience.com/brain/money-can-buy-you-happiness-if-you-spend-it-on-time/

Human nature is pretty much about finding a permanent worry free state of mind.

So we worry our whole life about how to/whether we can ever/ get there or we choose pot.
Brought to you by T2/ junior, the wisest man ever.

#20 YVR Drunks on 09.12.18 at 6:50 pm

The people in Vancouver are so punch drunk on real estate they could very well have permanent brain damage.

No, no, prices will be up another million in a few more years.

Reminds me of that realtor with a head on a lamb’s body saying Toronto condos will be 3 million CAD per by 2030. I guess this could be true if the dollar gets thrashed and becomes worthless from not raising rates while the US rips ahead.

Too bad the government let fraud go on for so long where a whole generation of younger people think such is normal in the white collar banana republic of Canada.

#21 ANON on 09.12.18 at 6:56 pm

He’s smiling here because he knows he’s about to get a little piece of pizza

Steve, I suggest you and stop fooling around and give the carnivore some meat and offal. At least if you care about it. Otherwise, cardiologists, pizzas and walks are perfectly fine.

#22 -=jwk=- on 09.12.18 at 7:07 pm

@#6 paul

A long time ago for me was about an hour. My kids are growing up on a street and in a time just like that video….no real changes here, except they get 20minutes of tablet time a night. They like the math games.

#23 NOSTRADAMUS on 09.12.18 at 7:09 pm

THE PRINCE OF NIGERIA!
Of course ,the real challenge, the one that’s just around the corner, is the turmoil that always appears at the worst possible time. When the boom ends, and the bust begins, chaos rains down with exacting vigor. That is when the real trouble arrives.
Moreover, the real trouble arrives at the precise moment when liquidity of credit withers to a bone dry wishing well. That is when stock and real estate prices, which are now priced with no connection to the underlying economy, collapse, when paper wealth vaporizes faster than you can say Jack Robinson.
And the Loans officer starts asking questions, such as “any other collateral besides your heart of gold and million dollar smile? or “Do you have any other collateral.. besides this e/mail from a Nigerian Prince”?
It is said that credit is suspicion asleep … you know it has woken up when loan officers suddenly ask all sorts of strange questions.
Corporate and consumer debt, which has accumulated over the last decade far beyond its capacity to be repaid, will go bad all at once. Then , as the layoffs rise, consumer confidence- the last fortification against a recession- will roll over.
At the same time a certain clarity will be dispensed with efficient precision.
You can trust me as the teller of truth in the land of gypsies, tramps and thieves.

#24 Danny on 09.12.18 at 7:19 pm

Garth….I predicted before that with the new era of angry pissed off family gang guy Doug Ford, we would see the fangs of the Toronto Real Board cartel.

Yes today they showed their “balls along with their fangs”

No longer need to hide in the secret closets of financial backers of Ford and his tight suits guys and gals.

The Cartel came out swinging saying they are out of the closet and will get involved in the municipal elections.

But of course raising social issues and questions when we know that they are furthering the cause of developers and lobbyists of the strong secret alliance behind Doug Ford…to make even more money by building shoe boxes in the air at a frantic pace.

Therefore move quickly to control City Council by backing Ford supporting candidates. Really make the conservative party openly take over Council.

I guess I hope you have the balls to keep up the good fight…. with your honest writing along with other very few transparent writers on the topic of real estate manipulation of the poor suckers who have had drilled into their heads….mainly by family members….” that you must own a house “….the ultimate symbol of having made it and have the castle to protect you against the bad “boogie men”

Like Trump…Ford is really pushing real estate to make the his very rich backers even richer!

Selfishness…again takes over and Queens Park is its Fortress.

It was actually good to hear Brian Mulroney and Bill Davis talk intelligently about abuse of Power by “Doug the Thug”.

Why isn’t Doug reducing the size of Queens Park as well.
Oh he probably forgot that he was at Queens Park today and not at Toronto Council Chambers.

Vendettas like in the old hills of Calabria never end well anywhere.

#25 DON on 09.12.18 at 7:25 pm

Good story about the family dog in the picture! I have a big white mountain dog who is loyal and believe it or not…more considerate and behaved than most humans. I pay money for his addisons medication and happy to do so. Happy balance in life and my dog is one of my priorities. The type of dog that goes on duty as I leave the house and acts like a puppy when I come through the door.

As for these younger ones.

“Sadly, most of them are kids with no financial reserves. And billions in trades were put on credit cards. Ouch.”

Will it become somewhat justifiable to default on certain obligations among this cohort?

I will await the news, when a younger person (due to group think) takes a realtor to court for financial losses on properties the realtor guaranteed would go up in value. Not saying the case would be successful but might be tried in desperation when the shit hits the fan. ‘It’s not my fault my realtor assured me that this was a good investment’.

#26 Toronto Real Estate Update on 09.12.18 at 7:26 pm

# 10 Penny Henny

“I believe you called a crash 3 or 4 years ago.”

********************

Obviously a realtor (the whole blog knows you’ll deny it) with a typical realtor comment.

No proof. Nothing to back the claim.

If you’re so sure that I predicted a crash for any Canadian market then perhaps you could provide proof of your claim in the form of a quote.

Of course you won’t be able to do that because no such quote exists.

And everybody knows that too many realtors believe false information if it fits their narrative and dismiss true and verifiable information that doesn’t fit their narrative.

Will any Canadian housing markets crash?

The fact of the matter is that hundreds of years of world housing bubble history shows that housing crashes are common with housing bubbles.

But I’m not calling it either way. Completely unnecessary. I haven’t in the past and I won’t in the future.

You’re obviously not enjoying the beginning of Toronto’s major correction.

The key word there is beginning.

#27 The Wisdom of Disdain on 09.12.18 at 7:35 pm

Thing is I don’t think Bitcoin was ever envisioned as a speculative investment. It was meant as a means of bank-free transactions. Sure, it would have to have some value in order to function in that manner, hence the limited supply, but I don’t think it was designed to be horded any more than cash is. The idea was you sell something for a Bitcoin, then you buy something for a Bitcoin. You don’t buy a bunch of Bitcoin and then just leave it in your “wallet”.

Unfortunately that’s what everybody did (buy a bunch and then horde it) and that’s why it turned into a speculation rather than an anonymous transaction system.

Anyway, it is too slow and uses way too much electricity to ever become a replacement for cash in the electronic form as we know it.

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2017/12/bitcoins-insane-energy-consumption-explained/

Bitcoin, in essence, is electricity. One could think of it as an “electricity backed currency”. The long term “intrinsic” value of Bitcoin is likely to be in the range of the cost of the electricity to keep the network running.

But I think this is a silly way to back a currency. With cash, you have something that might be useful to have on hand as hurricane Florence bears down on you. You might be able to buy a life saving bottle of whisky from your neighbor who was smart enough to clear out the liquor store before hand. Even a gold or silver coin might be bartered to the right person. But you won’t be able to trade your Bitcoin for a flat of bottled water until after the lights come back on. Assuming they do. That took quite a while in Puerto Rico.

But people, contrary to popular opinion, don’t generally think things through. Social and technological “progress”, if that is what it can be called, is more of a process of trial and error than linear progress towards a specific goal. In fact there really isn’t even a specific goal other than the survival of the system. In this way “progress” can be thought of as akin to evolution. Many things are tried, most go extinct.

Oh sure, every now and then there is a revolutionary moment when a bunch of powerful people sit around and design a new system more in their own interest. The framing of the US constitution is a classic example. But that was a system designed primarily to benefit land owners in a word without nationwide electronic communications and media. It has evolved into something much different. The US political system of today no more resembles that of the founding fathers than Windows 10 resembles DOS.

And what is this “Windows 10” thing? If things are “designed”, why didn’t they come out with this operating system 20 years ago? Why all the iterations? Well, the fact is Microsoft didn’t know how to do it and they didn’t have the resources. It takes a long time and a lot of failures to figure out what it is you are actually going to do. And they probably aren’t there yet. If we could imagine that there is some sort of ideal operating system that allows a computer to do everything it should quickly and with high security, why not just build that right away? Well, we don’t know how. All of the intelligence on the planet couldn’t do it in one fell swoop. We aren’t that smart. So instead we build on smaller past successes. If Windows can be viewed in any way as a “success”. Maybe I should have used a different example.

But anyway back to buying Bitcoin. The blockchain technology behind it will no doubt prove to be useful, and who knows where it might show up in the future, but people who gambled on version 1.0 will likely end up with something less useful than an old Windows 3.1 computer. At least the 3.1 computer makes a good door stop.

The other problem with Bitcoin type concepts is that there are not really any significant barriers to entry. There is no reason there couldn’t be 1000 versions of it kicking around, all independent. To make one or the other the “system of record” would require a fiat decree as with cash.

Anyway, Bitcoin had to be tried, it had to become a bubble, and now it has to run it’s course. This is just how humans adjust to new technologies and trends. I mean, how could anyone assume otherwise after the Beanie-Baby fad? At the height, Beanie-Babies accounted for 10% of the sales on eBay, possibly making a large contribution to eBay becoming a viable platform. Much the same way porn was decisive in making the VHS machine viable. And it did. Nobody was going to spend $30 to buy a VHS movie and $500 for the machine to play it to watch on a 24 inch screen with low resolution that they could see in a movie theater for the same price in 35mm without buying the machine. But if you had the thing anyway for those films you didn’t want to watch in a theater it began to make more sense. Being able to rent movies then made the whole thing work but sleazy back rooms with the porn in them were in every mom and pop video shop until the internet made them redundant, as it did the whole VHS rental market. Note to bitcoin “investors”. Your fate will be the same as Blockbuster.
Your “investment” has a “best before” date.

Corporations, governments, technology, everything evolves. Whatever fad you are investing in today will be part of the fossil record tomorrow. Buying at the right time is not the key to success. Selling at the right time is.

#28 Millennial905er on 09.12.18 at 7:39 pm

Steve, here’s hoping Buddy can enjoy many more days of pizza slices!

http://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/635-000-canadian-jobs-at-risk-amid-u-s-tax-overhaul-study-1.1136584

Trump knows what he’s doing!

#MAGA2020

#29 bellend on 09.12.18 at 7:41 pm

Garth: “We’re way behind the curve in terms of normalizing the cost of money from the historic lows hit after the GFC.”

Skippystan: “hold my beer”

#30 DON on 09.12.18 at 7:44 pm

#10 Penny Henny on 09.12.18 at 5:51 pm

#1 Toronto Real Estate Update on 09.12.18 at 4:31 pm
//////////////////

Hey VREU how are prices doing in Victoria.
I believe you called a crash 3 or 4 years ago.
How’s that going?
**************************

Does it really that he/she was off a couple of years? Other for the ones that bought last year and are already underwater. No one thought the sales people were allowed to lie out right but as that news starts to take hold…Yikes.

#31 Ogopogo on 09.12.18 at 7:50 pm

I remember well all the arrogant Bitcoin cultists crowing about their gains on the blog and spitting abuse at our gracious host. As usual, they scatter like cockroaches once the bubble pops. Where are the contrite “investors” acknowledging the errors of their ways and apologizing for their harsh words?

It reminds of a clown that used to comment, one “TurnerNation.” He used to mock anyone who dared suggest that rates would go up. He has gone into hiding lately, no doubt stung by the interest rates piling up fast on his lifetime of debt.

Somethings never change. For everything else, there is mockery.

#32 DON on 09.12.18 at 7:54 pm

#11 Damifino on 09.12.18 at 5:53 pm

I just happen to like cash for some things. Say anything under $50. It’s fun to pay with cash and there’s no peripheral baggage attached.

Also, I find myself saying the word ‘no’ a lot…

‘No’ is still a very misunderstood answer. Most merchants think it really means “convince me”.
*****************

lol – A lot easier to pay with cash – less wait time. Stimulates good on the job math skills as well.

I find myself saying ‘No’ as well.

Try this type of reply. I do not want your optimum card as I don’t plan on being a full time drug store junkie, besides it may offend my current dealer.

The best one is being asked (in a grocery store) by a person standing by – if I would like to learn how to use the self check out. “No thank you I am just too lazy and old to understand all those gizzmos. Thank you and have a great day!”

#33 Linda on 09.12.18 at 7:55 pm

Buddy has the big eyes & cute factor down pat. Given age & health, may as well ensure he enjoys what time he has left.

The cryptocurrency thing is indeed a disaster for many who invested. Expecting people to learn from history seems to be a losing bet. No matter how many prior examples of the balloon going ‘pop’ one provides, there are always those who believe it will be different this time.

Regarding TREB’s latest blocking of transparency, is it possible that the Supreme Court ruling did indeed give them six months before they had to drop their drawers & expose the real data? If the answer is no & TREB was not given an extension on obfuscation, could TREB then be deemed to be in contempt of court? While I can totally see TREB wanting to keep the lid on for as long as possible it seems to me that ignoring the ruling of the Supreme Court is not the smart thing to do. I’d imagine an annoyed Supreme Court could ensure any possible financial benefit TREB might gain by any further delay could be rescinded in short order.

#34 AK on 09.12.18 at 7:55 pm

“Zoocasa just received one of those miserable cease-and-desist letters threatening to take away its access to MLS info if it continues to publish it, even in a password-protected state.”
=====================================
So, that’s what happened.

I was able to view all the sold listings for about 7 days, then boom…

#35 young & foolish on 09.12.18 at 7:58 pm

Hahaha … everybody who says something positive about RE on this blog gets immediately accused of being a realturd. Meanwhile, you all need housing.

Groupthink in technicolour ….

#36 Nonplused on 09.12.18 at 8:06 pm

#28 Millennial905er

Interesting article. But you see it can’t be true because of socialism! (That was sarcasm.)

Socialism has been tried probably 100 times in the modern era (since 1920) and it has failed every time. Why? Because you can’t harvest what you didn’t plant. Every farmer knows you must sow in the spring to harvest in the fall. Every socialist just goes and steals the pumpkins. Well, eventually the farmer stops planting them. Soon, Halloween isn’t what it was. No jackolanterns, no candy, no costumes, no lawn ornaments, no parties. Just hordes of people begging.

Socialism occurs when there are more beggars in a society than producers, and they control the vote. But they drive the producers out. It doesn’t happen overnight, nothing does, but it happens.

The situation we are in is that capital is mobile. It goes where it is treated best. Like Trump or hate him, if the US becomes a more attractive place to do business than Canada is, capital will move and it will bring the jobs with it.

All things must eventually move towards a level playing field. That’s why pretty much any burger shop sells the same burger for the same price. If McDonald’s raises the price of their hamburgers a Wendy’s opens next door. It is just how a free market works.

That said, the tax cuts in the US are not a slam dunk. The Democrats are working hard to get Trump out and reverse them. Companies consider this kind of political risk when considering investing long term capital. It could be a trap. Why would Suncor move operations to the US if the corpse of Bernie Sanders could be the next US president?

It’s early days my friend. But the trend is clear, government is too big and areas that reduce government are likely to attract the most capital.

#37 Bob Dog on 09.12.18 at 8:10 pm

Organized religion was the most brilliant scam ever conceived until Bitcoin came along. Well done Goldman Sachs.

#38 Protea on 09.12.18 at 8:16 pm

yvrguy keep up your propaganda what do you expect from another shyster lawyer .

Eventually you are going down its just a matter of time !!

#39 akashic record on 09.12.18 at 8:23 pm

#14 Muttley O’Toole on 09.12.18 at 6:13 pm

Consequences – blog heading yesterday, but in respect to the content I couldn’t post this:

Oh My – Canadian Foreign Minister Left NAFTA Negotiations To Attend “President Trump is a Tyrant” Conference…
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2018/09/11/oh-my-canadian-foreign-minister-left-nafta-negotiations-to-attend-president-trump-is-a-tyrant-conference/

I reckon this will have CONSEQUENCES – I thought Canadian gov. ministers would think to put Canadian interests first – apparently not so.

—-

Historical moment of Canadian diplomacy.

CBC broadcasted for the public Freeland’s trip back to Canada as “to participate in liberal party policy discussion”.

CBC forgot to report that the Liberal party policy is the grandiose “Taking On the Tyrant”.

Maybe they just run out of airtime, that was needed to talk about how stupid, incompetent are some leaders.

Listening to Heather Reisman was also an enlightening experience. She is definitely not an indigo.

#40 Tony on 09.12.18 at 8:23 pm

Re: #34 AK on 09.12.18 at 7:55 pm

They showed all the sales price history. You could see real estate prices really went nowhere from 2011 to 2013 then took a big jump from the spring of 2015 and a massive spike from November 2016 to April 20th 2017 when Trump stated he’d kick all the illegal immigrants out of America.

#41 Henry Munson on 09.12.18 at 8:24 pm

Garth, On TVO Chris Hedges says America will collapse.

Do you agree or is this another crackpot trying to sell books get traffic on his website.

You always said don’t bet against America. Is this still true today. They have been wrong still so far.

#42 Ustabe on 09.12.18 at 8:39 pm

Yesterday there was a poster who in two separate responses put forward two different and rather significantly wrong thoughts.

I didn’t want to step on either the poster or the remembrances of 9/11 but here I am today and it still bothers me.

If we are to ever be able to yank conservatism in Canada from its currently non-electable form we are, all of us, going to have to stop conflating socialism with communism. This is poly sci 101 and perhaps Google or Wikipedia could help?

Secondly we could use those same resources to figure out neo-liberalism. I see folks tossing the term about and most of the time it doesn’t mean what the context of the post imputes it to mean.

If you would like to be taken seriously, I guess, is what I mean.

#43 Slowly Boiling Frogs on 09.12.18 at 8:57 pm

I have a question about all that undisclosed TREB data.

If bidding wars, bully bids, or just plain old over paying for a house/condo were based on the misleading or false data made available to buyers, cannot TREB and all of its brokerages and agents be sued for fraud?

Lying about re-listings or days on market should make them a perfect case for a class action suit for every home buyer in Toronto who over paid in the last few years.

#44 Jimers on 09.12.18 at 9:00 pm

If Hilliary hadn’t been defeated, BTC would be a $100k. With Trump, and faith in the $USD some what restored, BTC and other private monies are much less attractive.

#45 Entrepreneur on 09.12.18 at 9:07 pm

Some mayors are grouping together to get out of BC speculation tax. Really!?!

How about speaking up about the 4.5% rental increase!?!

How about speaking up about the working person who has to pay higher rent and now more!?!

How about the person who doesn’t have a mom and dad bank for a down payment!?!

How about speaking for the taxpayer in your community, to make it a healthy one!?!

All I have to say to those mayors and all the others “Suck it up, Buttercups!”

And how more homeless tent cities do you need!

All

#46 Jimers on 09.12.18 at 9:08 pm

Justin’s step-brother was a founder of Canada’s first Bitcoin exchange. (Who said it was unregulated?) Word on the street has always been been that T2 got into BTC early and is quite crypto-savy.

#47 Jimers on 09.12.18 at 9:21 pm

#41 Henry Munson on 09.12.18 at 8:24 pm

FWIW; Chris Hedges weekly show is home based on Russia Today, its called On Contact.

#48 Capt. Serious on 09.12.18 at 9:30 pm

Totally unrelated: Canadian road cyclist Mike Woods won a stage today at the Vuelta a Espana (like the Tour de France, but in Spain)! He is only the second Canadian to do so. Awesome.

#49 Angelo on 09.12.18 at 9:31 pm

The crypto bite was a bit too two faced….

Blockchain as promising as the web….but worthless….ok / erro9r

BTC is still at $6400 as of writing, up from .0001 cents ten years ago. The shame of it all….

Crypto’s will survive and continue to develop and grow, many blockchains and tokens may themselves become worthless.

BTC will survive the forseeable future because it is Brand Blockchain, those who don’t see this need to look closer.

BTC is not anonymous, talk of BTC as anonymous proves you don’t understand what you’re talking about.

Things (technologies) will be built on blockchains of various sorts, some of the current blockchains will act as the backbone of future economic infrastructure.

10% > 90%

#50 AB Boxster on 09.12.18 at 9:39 pm

Ah yes, Pets.com

I remember the dot com bubble.
Many in our office were playing penny stocks (penny dreadfulls my dad called them).
At the time,many of the penny ore mining stocks were converting themselves to become ‘data mining ‘ companies overnight.

Pump and Dump baby.

Sure. Like there is really no big difference between resource mining and data mining right?

Invested 10k in some super speculative stocks. (Not pets.com though that one may no sense.)
At the top the portfolio was 35k.
At the end it was 10k so no harm done.

Good learning experience though.

Like the lessons being learned with Bitcoin.
Sound like some expensive lessons being learned though.

Anyone want to buy some tulip bulbs?

#51 conan on 09.12.18 at 9:44 pm

Can we use the Not Withstanding Clause to recall this odious Ontario government?

#52 Would Not Expect Anything Less From TREB on 09.12.18 at 9:49 pm

Realtors must report accurate sales prices for properties they’ve listed now that the public can access that data, the Toronto Real Estate Board is warning its members.

“We have received reports that some members have been reporting inaccurate figures in the sold prices of their listings due to privacy concerns raised by their customers,” TREB wrote in a letter sent to its members.

#53 TREB Integrity on 09.12.18 at 9:52 pm

TREB = zero integrity, zero credibility.

Take their data away. You don’t need an agent in this day and age, but their data is very helpful, when not fluffed.

The Canadian Press obtained a $3.1-million dollar listing in Scarborough that appeared to be reported as selling for $1.

The listing now has an updated sold price tag of $2.98 million, according to Mongohouse, a website that includes sold prices.

Publishing false prices is contrary to TREB’s rules and policies, and could lead to disciplinary proceedings, the board said in the letter, as well as possible membership suspension or termination.

#54 DON on 09.12.18 at 9:59 pm

#35 young & foolish on 09.12.18 at 7:58 pm

Hahaha … everybody who says something positive about RE on this blog gets immediately accused of being a realturd. Meanwhile, you all need housing.

Groupthink in technicolour …

*******************************
Positive should be back up with facts…not msm industry written news advertisements.

Australian’s also believed all the positives about their housing market until it started turning south. A recent headline…’set to the biggest housing decline in Aussie history’. Google 100K losses.

Honk Kong markets wavering both housing and stocks.

A world embroiled in in trade wars, armed conflict, a tapped out consumer, over stretched individuals, increasing and unafordable prices.

The following is not meant to be against you or your call name but sometimes young and foolish turn into old and foolish. Never trust anything you hear without seeking confirmation with verifiable stats. Some people rely on lying to others.

Knowledge is your friend but then again ignorance is bliss.

#55 akashic record on 09.12.18 at 10:00 pm

This video was really fun to watch.

Unknown to old stock Americans and H-1B visa holders, Google picked up the abandoned great tradition where the enlightened leaders of companies explained the big picture of daily politics for the employees in big assemblies every week.

Behind the iron curtain, several decades ago, when the leaders of the companies were Communist party card holders. An exclusive club. Kind of like the club of tech billionaires of Silicon Valley.

Some things were fundamentally different though.

Back then it was clear for everybody that the whole thing was just a big lie. Additionally, back then the free corporate cookies were not loaded with edibles.

The hallucination seems the same.

I wonder if the politically neutral Alphabet AI promotes it to go viral on YouTube.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-09-12/panic-and-dismay-leaked-video-reveals-distraught-google-execs-grappling-hillary

#56 Sydneysider on 09.12.18 at 10:03 pm

“He’s smiling here because he knows he’s about to get a little piece of pizza.”

Most dogs are lactose intolerant, so he won’t be smiling once those cramps from intestinal gas kick in.

He’s 12. Probably not his first rodeo. – Garth

#57 Doug t on 09.12.18 at 10:24 pm

Steve give your little buddy a hug for me – I read that and just about lost it – had to say bye to our friend 6 months ago – tough soooo tough

Dog love

#58 TheDood on 09.12.18 at 10:25 pm

#43 Slowly Boiling Frogs on 09.12.18 at 8:57 pm
I have a question about all that undisclosed TREB data.

If bidding wars, bully bids, or just plain old over paying for a house/condo were based on the misleading or false data made available to buyers, cannot TREB and all of its brokerages and agents be sued for fraud?

Lying about re-listings or days on market should make them a perfect case for a class action suit for every home buyer in Toronto who over paid in the last few years.
_________________________________

I love it!

A few thousand poor souls who are set to lose their life savings, a superstar dream team of lawyers, who knows what could happen. Could be the trial of the century – Canadian style!

#59 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.12.18 at 10:28 pm

#161 dollar cost averaging on 09.12.18 at 10:06 am
the markets are showing us , YET again, the value of dollar cost averaging Vs taking a large position on a given moment. I recall a blog entry advocating a bulk position.

History says DCA doesn’t work. And it doesn’t. – Garth
—————–
wow, Garth is taking on the Wealthy Barber.
He was on the Dragons Den along Kevin O’Leary.

#60 TheDood on 09.12.18 at 10:38 pm

#35 young & foolish on 09.12.18 at 7:58 pm
Hahaha … everybody who says something positive about RE on this blog gets immediately accused of being a realturd. Meanwhile, you all need housing.

Groupthink in technicolour ….
_______________________

What’s so positive about RE anyways? That it goes up forever? Not. That it’s worth overpaying for? Not. That you need to buy now or forever be frozen out? Not.

The fact is no one can trust anything that comes out of the mouth of anyone who has skin in the RE game. If they stand to gain from a transaction, they will lie through their teeth. The industry needs some hardcore regulation, starting with truthful data available to potential customers.

#61 Oakville Rocks! on 09.12.18 at 10:40 pm

Best wishes and many more years to Buddy and his family.

Crazy comments lately.. lots of misinformation and nonsense. I do not envy the person who has to read all of it.

#56, Most dogs are not lactose intolerant. Some are. Common sense might tell you that a family living with a dog for 12 years would know if their best friend could enjoy cheese and dairy once in a while. I share a small amount of pizza with my dog too, as well as ice cream.. never a problem.

#62 Rexx Rock on 09.12.18 at 11:02 pm

Check out this funny video of bitcoin.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XmMQAuO62gI

#63 Gulf Breeze on 09.13.18 at 12:06 am

Speaking of sick puppies, I woke up a few mornings ago to find my 14 year old pup who looks just like the little dude pictured above covered in bright red blood.

As she has heart liver adrenal and other medical issues I made an appointment with the vet that day to have her euthanized.

Vet checked her out and turned out to be a …nose bleed! She’s just as bright and cheery as anything now since antibiotics kicked in.

I thought I’d share this in the event anyone here has a dog who appears to be coughing up blood. What they are coughing up can be originating in their nasal cavity!

Back to topic–the Feds may choose inflation as they eye Nafta and try to pinpoint the fall out. And it looks like Canadians are trying to stall a deal until after the midterms.

What a crazy world…so many tyrants in charge now. It is clearly safe to use the f word, ‘fascism’ now. It’s no longer an exaggeration.

#64 Nonplused on 09.13.18 at 12:39 am

#56 Sydneysider on 09.12.18 at 10:03 pm
“He’s smiling here because he knows he’s about to get a little piece of pizza.”

Most dogs are lactose intolerant, so he won’t be smiling once those cramps from intestinal gas kick in.

He’s 12. Probably not his first rodeo. – Garth

——————–

Once again we prove that dogs are smarter than people. Even little dogs.

https://lifehacker.com/the-best-cheeses-to-eat-if-youre-lactose-intolerant-1563386663

Hard cheeses like cheddar and mozzarella hardly have any lactose. Further dilute it with some pizza crust and a bit of pepperoni, and the pepperoni is the problem not the cheese. A little dog like Buddy knows this even though he doesn’t have internet.

People, these days it is possible to learn just about everything you don’t know by typing a few words into Google. The problem is most people don’t know that they don’t know and assume they know what they think they know when they don’t, so they don’t bother to ask. Just ask Siri if you don’t know something like how much lactose is in cheese. It’s simple. It’s available. It’s instantaneous.

I knew the dog-cheese thing must be suspect because I have a dog and he loves cheese. Never doubt the dog. It took me about 15 seconds to confirm my suspicions.

Mind you the dog can still be pretty stupid about eating things he shouldn’t. For example when we buy steak I trim and fry the fat to make dogie treats. He loves them. Gets more excited than about anything else. I heard the fat was bad for you, which is why I trim it, but he apparently doesn’t read the food guides. To him that is as good as it gets. Probably because I fry it first, if he got some raw he’d probably think that is as good as it gets. Mmmmm. Raw steak fat. Yum.

Never, ever question the dog. He probably was barking for a reason. Always question yourself. Most of the things you think you know are just assumptions you put there because there was nothing else to go in the hole because you are too lazy to use Google or Wikipedia.

#65 SWL on 09.13.18 at 12:46 am

I spent the evening on Mt Prevost digging on mountain bike trails. Helps to sooth my soul.

Yesterday was difficult day remembering how the world changed after that tragic day. I’ve been so busy these last few years that I’ve kind of forgot or lost focus on the reality of the situation

Anyways, I don’t have much time to comment here and I’m sure many are ok with that. Still a daily reader and I really do respect everything Garth does for us all here

Thanks for being a gracious host

Scott

#66 NoName on 09.13.18 at 12:56 am

Is this funny or what?

CNBC: China may use its property markets to defend against Trump’s trade war offensive.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/13/rising-chinese-property-prices-a-potential-trade-war-defense-clsa.html

#67 Flamed out in Kitchener on 09.13.18 at 1:02 am

Look at that picture of little Buddy. Then read the paragraph about his situation. That’s all you need to bring home the lessons that Garth tries desperately to get folks to understand.

These are the real things that matter, that bring true joy. So pay attention, build your liquid, well diversified portfolio, and enjoy your time on your terms.

Everything else is just noise.

Good luck little Buddy.

#68 Smoking Man on 09.13.18 at 1:10 am

Innocence died on Sep 12 2001

Got sent here form another galaxy to bring Justin. Shit mean to say Justice.

Shlong Zumamga brought Justin.

People from any galaxy will get pissed off and vow revenge on other people who forgot about them or belittle em when they are down.

I love coal miners.

Shlong has issues.

Gerry Butts dad must be spining in his grave.
Some people don’t qualify for collage. Either to smart or like to work with their hands.

The forgotten man showed up in 2016. Just watch the mid terms ….
They all walked away…

Blood red all the way.

Dr Smoking Man
Phd Hetdonomics.

#69 Myra Andrews on 09.13.18 at 1:31 am

Stats for Greater Vancouver from realtor Paul Boenisch

Sept 12 New 268 Sold 90 TI: 13,147
Sept 11 New 325 Sold 77 TI: 13,057
Sept 10 New 487 Sold 87 TI: 12,916

Sept 7 New 197 Sold 87 TI: 12,681
Sept 5-6 New 609 Sold 195 TI: 12,653
Sept 4 New 498 Sold 53 TI: 12,439

Inventory at the end of August was 12,510

#70 Smoking Man on 09.13.18 at 2:02 am

You will never see this on cbc or msm.

Eye witness , the edgy narrative must preval . read about witches and warlocks. Safety first..

https://youtu.be/LIIVWEeQ2HM

Gartho is a good sport . he lets us crazy people express our ideas .

#71 Tom from Mississauga on 09.13.18 at 2:09 am

Hi Garth
Back to school shopping in Ontario this year was nonexistent. Usually one retailer or brand beats another but not this year. All our retail clients AND brand competitors got crushed. Ontario September job numbers could follow August.

#72 Smoking Man on 09.13.18 at 2:16 am

When work for a globalist corp and did not see the email. It’s pink shirt day, and you don’t oun a pick shirt. Double jeopardy .

https://youtu.be/LIIVWEeQ2HM

#73 Tom from Mississauga on 09.13.18 at 2:26 am

Maybe people working in the auto sector aren’t spending

#74 NoName on 09.13.18 at 2:47 am

Interesting podcasts.

Press play 1st
https://piie.com/experts/peterson-perspectives/trade-talks-episode-52-nafta-deal-fever

Press play 2nd
https://piie.com/experts/peterson-perspectives/trade-talks-episode-53-oh-nafta-its-canadas-turn

#75 Oft deleted much maligned stock picker on 09.13.18 at 4:06 am

DELETED

#76 Howard on 09.13.18 at 4:38 am

#21 ANON on 09.12.18 at 6:56 pm

He’s smiling here because he knows he’s about to get a little piece of pizza

Steve, I suggest you and stop fooling around and give the carnivore some meat and offal. At least if you care about it. Otherwise, cardiologists, pizzas and walks are perfectly fine.

—————————————–

Dogs are omnivores.

#77 Howard on 09.13.18 at 4:43 am

#51 conan on 09.12.18 at 9:44 pm

Can we use the Not Withstanding Clause to recall this odious Ontario government?

———————————————

Too bad we didn’t do that to the government that wanted to teach pornography to 5-year olds and use middle class taxes to subsidize rich people buying Teslas.

#78 Howard on 09.13.18 at 4:52 am

#41 Henry Munson on 09.12.18 at 8:24 pm

Garth, On TVO Chris Hedges says America will collapse.

Do you agree or is this another crackpot trying to sell books get traffic on his website.

You always said don’t bet against America. Is this still true today. They have been wrong still so far.

————————————–

Who’s going to take its place?

Japan, a country with a declining population?
Russia, a country with a smaller GDP than Canada despite 4 times the population?
China, a country where people think rhino horn confers aphrodisiac powers?
EU, crisis of illegal migrants and on the verge of breakup?

No – it’s America. Nobody alive today will witness a planet in which America isn’t top dog.

#79 Stan Brooks on 09.13.18 at 7:39 am

2 standards of law: One (strict law, beats with a stick) for the sheeple, another one (small fines) for the elite.


https://ca.yahoo.com/news/newsalert-leblanc-conflict-over-surf-150739758.html

Last year, then-commissioner Mary Dawson found Prime Minister Justin Trudeau broke Canada’s ethics laws over two all-expenses-paid family trips to a private island in the Bahamas owned by the Aga Khan. Trudeau also had to pay a $100 fine earlier this year for failing to disclosing a gift of sunglasses from the premier of P.E.I.

Finance Minister Bill Morneau has also been investigated several times by the ethics czar. He was cleared in two of those probes, which involved sponsoring a bill that reformed Canadian pension regulations while he and his family members held shares in a pension firm as well as accusations of insider trading over the sale of those shares.

He was fined $200, however, for failing to disclose a villa he owns in France via a holding company.

What a joke this country has become.

$ 100, 200 fines for such violations?
If you try to justify personal expense as a Business one if you own small Business, you will be literally killed by CRA. Go to Vegas and try to expense that as ‘conference’, you are looking for potential fines and penalties in thousands of dollars.

For the corrupt liberals there is no law as they work hard for all of us, Canadians.

But hey sheeple, pay your fair (according to minister of fairness) share of taxes.

And where is state media? Occupied with Trump and kept silent by $ billions of dollars of handouts from our tax money, courtesy of the finance department. That is right, liberals are purchasing media cooperation with our tax money as they did pay for a defunct pipeline in order to save the investors.
Would they have done it with their own money?

Who in their right mind (if not completely incompetent, not to imply anything worse here as these guys/gals have lawyers and loves to parade with that) would pay billions for a defunct pipeline/ a project that investors are leaving in a panic (99 % approved the sale) without negotiating a better price?
Why if such a good deal they did not buy it with their trust funds money?

But don’t worry, they will protect our interests on the NAFTA deal (by ‘us’ they really mean the corrupt media and Quebec dairy farmers, so that can pass even a lie detector test).

And we are looking for transparency in real estate.
Not gonna happen folks.

#80 Tater on 09.13.18 at 7:45 am

Markets are saying there’s a six-in-ten chance the cost of money will go up again next month.
—————————————————————-
I’m seeing 88% chance, based on OIS.

Updated. – Garth

#81 Stan Brooks on 09.13.18 at 7:56 am

In some estimates Canada can lose over 1 million jobs:
– over 600 k due to NAFTA excluding Canada (Mexico was smart enough to sign quickly an agreement with US)
– over 600 k due to US tax cuts.

This could bring real unemployment in places like Ontario/GTA to 25 + %.

And what are the fiction author turned foreign affairs minster, the part time drama teacher and the financial ‘star, daddy’s boy’ billy the kid doing?

Attending SJW conferences and increasing taxes/killing small Businesses.

#82 Penny Henny on 09.13.18 at 8:52 am

#34 AK on 09.12.18 at 7:55 pm
“Zoocasa just received one of those miserable cease-and-desist letters threatening to take away its access to MLS info if it continues to publish it, even in a password-protected state.”
=====================================
So, that’s what happened.

I was able to view all the sold listings for about 7 days, then boom…

//////////////////

Go to mongohouse.com

#83 KLNR on 09.13.18 at 8:59 am

@#77 Howard on 09.13.18 at 4:43 am
#51 conan on 09.12.18 at 9:44 pm

Can we use the Not Withstanding Clause to recall this odious Ontario government?

———————————————

Too bad we didn’t do that to the government that wanted to teach pornography to 5-year olds and use middle class taxes to subsidize rich people buying Teslas.

____________________

LOLOL, you’re unhinged howard.

#84 232 on 09.13.18 at 9:00 am

With all due respect, Garth and dear blog dogs, you simply don’t understand crypto.
While most of you are happy it “crashed” as you’ve missed this boat, you can’t deny the fact that change is coming. FIAT will be gone (sooner or later) and will be replaced with crypto.
For those that don’t understand the technology, and what is capable of, yes, it is gambling.

Meanwhile, my diversified indexed portfolio is up 5% this year. A complete joke, barely keeping up with inflation. You people keep playing with that. I’ll take my chances and continue my “gamble” with crypto.

I guess it is true: “all the smart people have money invested in crypto”

BTC loss is over 70% since Christmas and you are worried abut a positive 5% return on financial assets? Methinks the joke is on you. – Garth

#85 KLNR on 09.13.18 at 9:11 am

@#37 Bob Dog on 09.12.18 at 8:10 pm
Organized religion was the most brilliant scam ever conceived until Bitcoin came along. Well done Goldman Sachs.
_______________
hahaha, so true.

#86 Melania wears plaid & Nike to bed on 09.13.18 at 9:13 am

#79 So try moving to the US where the US President is required to disclose every…. oh wait….

The man holding the most powerful job in the world disclosed nothing, probably because his business dealings in the past 15 years have been financed by Russian oligarchs with ties to the Kremlin.

I used to find that the sound of babbling brooks relaxing… now it is just noise, lots of meaningless noise.

Interesting RE story in the G&M this morning..
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/first-person/article-i-tried-to-cash-in-on-my-toronto-home-and-got-burned/

#87 Katie Hamel on 09.13.18 at 9:23 am

About Chris Hedges on TVO, it is clearly an attack on the U.S. as just this morning I read that the EU wants to challenge the U.S. reserve currency status with the Euro because Trump is in power.

Who would want to put faith in the Euro. Europe is a socialist basket case. They can’t even grow their economy if it is growing at all. The America haters are coming out in full force.

#88 Evangeline on 09.13.18 at 9:42 am

#64 Nonplused on 09.13.18 at 12:39 am “I heard the fat was bad for you, which is why I trim it, but he apparently doesn’t read the food guides. ”

Maybe he read a keto high fat-low carb food guide. There are thousands of videos about keto on youtube, many by MD’s and nutritionalists. Keto makes oil and fat instead of carbs serve as the body’s energy source. The before and after pictures are amazing.

#89 trump on 09.13.18 at 10:05 am

without NAFTA the TSX is d.e.a.d

cmon, get a deal

#90 Evangeline on 09.13.18 at 10:15 am

#64 Nonplused on 09.13.18 at 12:39 am “I heard the fat was bad for you, which is why I trim it, but he apparently doesn’t read the food guides. ”

Maybe he read a keto high fat-low carb food guide. There are thousands of videos about the keto lifestyle on youtube, many by MD’s and nutritionalists.

Keto eating makes oil and fat instead of carbs serve as the body’s energy source. The before and after pictures of people who’ve switched from low fat to high fat ketogenic diets are amazing.

#91 AK on 09.13.18 at 10:37 am

#82 Penny Henny on 09.13.18 at 8:52 am
#34 AK on 09.12.18 at 7:55 pm
“Zoocasa just received one of those miserable cease-and-desist letters threatening to take away its access to MLS info if it continues to publish it, even in a password-protected state.”
=====================================
So, that’s what happened.
I was able to view all the sold listings for about 7 days, then boom…
//////////////////
Go to mongohouse.com

———————————-
Thank you Penny Henny

#92 Stan Brooks on 09.13.18 at 10:39 am

#87 Katie Hamel on 09.13.18 at 9:23 am
About Chris Hedges on TVO, it is clearly an attack on the U.S. as just this morning I read that the EU wants to challenge the U.S. reserve currency status with the Euro because Trump is in power.

Who would want to put faith in the Euro. Europe is a socialist basket case. They can’t even grow their economy if it is growing at all. The America haters are coming out in full force.

=======================

Good question.

Euro is 0.66 % up against the loonie today.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_current_account_balance

top countries by surplus:
1 Germany 296,000

top countries by deficit:
3 Canada 55,570

Note that we are # 1 deficits per capita in the world

Also on the CIA site:
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2187rank.html

Next patient please.

#93 akashic record on 09.13.18 at 11:10 am

#88 Evangeline on 09.13.18 at 9:42 am

#64 Nonplused on 09.13.18 at 12:39 am “I heard the fat was bad for you, which is why I trim it, but he apparently doesn’t read the food guides. ”

Maybe he read a keto high fat-low carb food guide. There are thousands of videos about keto on youtube, many by MD’s and nutritionalists. Keto makes oil and fat instead of carbs serve as the body’s energy source. The before and after pictures are amazing.

Corrupt Harvard scientists were paid by the sugar industry to shift blame for heart disease from sugar to fat, in the 1960’s. The “research” made it to the food guides all over the world for decades, creating army of sick people, suffering and healthy profits.

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/13/well/eat/how-the-sugar-industry-shifted-blame-to-fat.html

Sugar is poison.

First step to take care of your own health is to break your sugar addiction. If you take it seriously, you will find surprisingly few items to buy in stores, despite the endless products on the shelves.

Switching to artificial sweeteners is not better. You just have to suck it up that not everything has to be sweet.

Eating mostly what you grow with care and gratitude may keep you free of prescription drugs. I have not had any for decades, except the occasional dental treatment, which is also due to my sugary past.

#94 Remembrancer on 09.13.18 at 11:13 am

#84 232 on 09.13.18 at 9:00 am

For those that don’t understand the technology, and what is capable of, yes, it is gambling.

I guess it is true: “all the smart people have money invested in crypto”
—————————————————————
No they don’t – stop this nonsense, especially on a blog that vilifies real estate pumping…

Blockchain-based application startups that solve a real certified distributed ledger problem, are a speculative play like any startup but may make sense in the space they play.

Bitcoin / Initial Coin Offering schemes etc – anyone smart who is in this “as an investment” is using their play money to gamble on greater fools paying them out from lower in the pyramid, looking for blind luck the same way they might drop a token into the $1000 giant slot for kicks at Caesars or collecting a toll on the obscene amounts of processing power being consumed world-wide…

That said, there is another use for crypto currency as a proxy medium of exchange which has likely put a crimp on the sellers of black leather jacket / turtle neck sweater combos, identical leather suit cases and cafes in Vienna, but that’s for a different blog…

#95 232 on 09.13.18 at 11:29 am

Now agents put down sale price of $1.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/toronto/article-real-estate-agents-warned-by-treb-about-posting-inaccurate-home-sale/

#96 SoggyShorts on 09.13.18 at 11:46 am

#32 DON on 09.12.18 at 7:54 pm
#11 Damifino on 09.12.18 at 5:53 pm

Why not “say no” while paying with a credit card that gives you 1.5% cash back?

Cash is not faster ->tap and pay is as fast as dropping exact change into the cashier’s hand.

Cash does not teach the cashier math->they are required to enter everything into the register(calculator)

#97 garth seriously on 09.13.18 at 12:28 pm

why do you let Stan Brooks post ? he’s obviously a troll

#98 Shawn Allen on 09.13.18 at 12:36 pm

Humboldt Broncos and Bus Safety

The team’s return and the spirit around that is fantastic.

I’d like to see Humboldt used to promote bus safety. I know from personal experience that kids (much less adults) are not (at least prior to Humboldt) using seat belts on coach buses even when the belts are present.

As a direct result of Humboldt, Transport Canada has ordered new buses to come with seat belts by 2020. There has been almost no news coverage of that positive development.

Meanwhile:

1. If you are involved with booking a coach bus try to get one with seat belts.

2. If you are an adult on a coach bus with seat belts use your belt and try to encourage others to do so. If you are in charge of kids or young adults on a coach bus please require them to use seat belts.

3. If you book a bus, make it clear to the driver that the speed limit is not to be exceeded. Not saying that was the case here but certainly in my experience bus drivers, like most of us, are apt to exceed the speed limit at times.

I live in St. Albert where four of the deceased kids were from. Please spread the word to try to prevent bus injuries and deaths in future.

#99 Stan Brooks on 09.13.18 at 1:08 pm

#97 garth seriously on 09.13.18 at 12:28 pm
why do you let Stan Brooks post ? he’s obviously a troll

————–

Obviously to whom? You?

What exactly is incorrect in the facts quoted in my posts? Anything in particular?

#100 IHCTD9 on 09.13.18 at 1:08 pm

#78 Howard on 09.13.18 at 4:52 am

No – it’s America. Nobody alive today will witness a planet in which America isn’t top dog.
————-

Nor will their kids, grandkids, or great grandkids.

More land, air, and sea power than the rest of the world combined. This has been the trump card held by the USA since the end of WW2. This is what any country ends up having to deal with ultimately if they can’t agree with the USA on a fundamental issue.

There is no one even close. The US can essentially do as it pleases. The end game of severe, end of the line international disagreement is and always will be open warfare. War is the last negotiation between Nations that can’t solve their differences. The US will win this final round of negotiations with anyone… with ease.

A quick trip through a logical thought experiment on an end of the line situation has the US’s opposition left with 2 options, capitulate or launch a nuke. Either way, the US wins.

The US will fade someday, but it will die via the hand of their own citizens over a long protracted period of decline (already in the works).

#101 Remembrancer on 09.13.18 at 1:14 pm

#96 SoggyShorts on 09.13.18 at 11:46 am

And… cash payers are already paying whatever little add on goes to support credit card transactions anyway unless there is a (legal of course) cash discount or posted CC user add-on at checkout…

#102 Howard on 09.13.18 at 1:14 pm

#93 akashic record on 09.13.18 at 11:10 am

When I significantly cut back on my sugar intake, I noticed fairly quickly how sickly-sweet almost everything started to taste. Nowadays I will occasionally crave a dessert at work, but after one or two bites of cake (or whatever) I can barely continue without gulping down copious amounts of water to dilute all the sugar.

#103 Victor V on 09.13.18 at 1:24 pm

“We are seeing some 40% off peak prices hitting in Richmond Hill in August. One young family bought a home for $1,115,000 and now their neighbours who own the same home are getting $650-$730,000. Historic Net Wealth devastation.”

https://twitter.com/rosskay/status/1040001940799795201

#104 Penny Henny on 09.13.18 at 1:27 pm

Dollarama took a big hit today on lower sales.

https://business.financialpost.com/news/retail-marketing/update-1-dollarama-posts-profit-same-store-sales-below-estimates

I called that one right in this space two weeks ago.
Prices rose too much too fast, no longer my favorite store.

#105 Marco on 09.13.18 at 1:47 pm

Bitcoin ETF exists and split up already

#106 Marco on 09.13.18 at 1:57 pm

Well, it is nice historic video but show it to Justin and he will call you a racist….

#107 Remembrancer on 09.13.18 at 2:10 pm

#105 Marco on 09.13.18 at 1:47 pm
Bitcoin ETF exists and split up already
—————————————————————
Great I enjoy new twists on this and am prepared to be informed, got a link on performance history from somewhere west of the Black Sea or east of the Yangtze River though?

I’d Google myself but don’t want to wade through 20 “Top X of 1980s, 90s & 2000s, and you won’t believe #10!” links to get there.

#108 akashic record on 09.13.18 at 2:44 pm

#102 Howard on 09.13.18 at 1:14 pm

#93 akashic record on 09.13.18 at 11:10 am

When I significantly cut back on my sugar intake, I noticed fairly quickly how sickly-sweet almost everything started to taste. Nowadays I will occasionally crave a dessert at work, but after one or two bites of cake (or whatever) I can barely continue without gulping down copious amounts of water to dilute all the sugar.

That’s right. Most processed food is loaded with insane amount of sugar and other artificial crap, people should never eat or drink.
Nothing beats what you can grow and prepare from the beginning to the end. Once you cleared all the garbage from your body you can’t even look at what’s sold as food. I rather fast for a day or two than touching them.

People say we had to switch to digesting garbage to be able to supply billions of people and to keep the economy grow.

The entire concept is like sugar.

#109 nimrod on 09.13.18 at 2:55 pm

I still can’t believe people elected a part time drama teacher dropout to run this country.

He was an MP for eight years, then won a party leadership. He may not be your choice (or mine), but he is no dropout. – Garth

#110 akashic record on 09.13.18 at 2:59 pm

106 Marco on 09.13.18 at 1:57 pm

Well, it is nice historic video but show it to Justin and he will call you a racist….

When you know yourself, you know who you are, where are you from, why are you here and where do you go, it does not matter how other people call you.

Most people never asked themselves in their entire life these basic questions, how would they have any idea?

#111 MF on 09.13.18 at 3:24 pm

Stan Brooks on 09.13.18 at 10:39 am

The other poster is correct and you are wrong again. The EU has no future, and the currency will be worth 20 cents on the dollar eventually.

Could be the rampant socialism, rise of nationalism, refugee crisis, PIGS, Brexit or all of the above.

Might be ten or twenty years but it’s coming.

MF

#112 Marco on 09.13.18 at 3:27 pm

First, I do not think that USA is a military superpower
because they won only against Grenada under superhero Regan.
Second to be colony of Great Britain and has no its own royals is hard. Justin is a Canadian Royal that’s why he was elected. Now he brings shame to the country and that is a good reality check. Globalists are rabid militants and he is a face of them. He will go far on international stage.

#113 Renter's Revenge! on 09.13.18 at 3:30 pm

“Silly us. We thought when the Toronto Real Estate Board resoundingly lost a seven-year legal battle to blind consumers to market stats (being shut down repeatedly by the courts and censored by the federal government) that it would capitulate. We all believed a new day of transparency was coming, that citizens would finally see beyond realtor claims and fibs and make their own informed decisions on price and value.

But, alas, no such deal. These guys refuse to die.”

=================================

They stab it with their steely knives, but they just can’t kill the beast.

#114 NoName on 09.13.18 at 3:33 pm

Interesting read

https://theintercept.com/2018/09/13/google-china-search-engine-employee-resigns/

#115 Marco on 09.13.18 at 3:33 pm

GBTC resembles an exchange-traded fund in that it is passively managed and has been seeking to replicate bitcoin’s movement.
So, Sir Turner is actually right.

#116 bdwy sktrn on 09.13.18 at 3:35 pm

I still can’t believe people elected a part time drama teacher dropout to run this country.

He was an MP for eight years, then won a party leadership. He may not be your choice (or mine), but he is no dropout. – Garth
——————————-
correct, he’s not a dropout, he’s a double dropout.
but we can all have faith that the programs he bails on (or flunks out of) are those programs which require marginal brains and where a famous last name won’t help.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Justin_Trudeau
Justin Trudeau
From Wikipedia

…..He completed one year of an engineering program at Montreal’s École Polytechnique, from 2002 to 2003, and one year of a master’s program in environmental geography at McGill University, from 2004 to 2005.

He graduated from McGill in 1994 and from UBC in 1998. The courses you refer to were post-graduate. Feel free to criticize the policies, not the man. Your words are trite and say more about you. Loser. – Garth

#117 Stan Brooks on 09.13.18 at 3:36 pm

All indications are: NAFTA is over.
Prepare accordingly.

https://ca.yahoo.com/finance/news/amid-trade-fight-canada-returns-roots-opposition-us-174419584.html

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/canadas-freeland-wont-hold-nafta-talks-says-more-033141038–finance.html

https://www.youtube.com/embed/AuUa5sFt1gM

#118 SilverSon on 09.13.18 at 3:41 pm

#95 232 on 09.13.18 at 11:29 am

real-estate-agents-warned-by-treb-about-posting-inaccurate-home-sale/
______________________________

Further proof that the real estate industry is in desperate need of regulation. I can’t believe real estate agents don’t realize they’re incriminating themselves by doing stuff like this so blatantly. I don’t know how agents thinks this helps earn the trust of new clients. It takes years of not lying to gain a reputation of being honest but only one lie to gain a regulation of being a liar.

#119 Stan Brooks on 09.13.18 at 3:51 pm


#111 MF on 09.13.18 at 3:24 pm
Stan Brooks on 09.13.18 at 10:39 am

The other poster is correct and you are wrong again. The EU has no future, and the currency will be worth 20 cents on the dollar eventually.

Could be the rampant socialism, rise of nationalism, refugee crisis, PIGS, Brexit or all of the above.

Might be ten or twenty years but it’s coming.

MF

Sure.

And you are shorting the Euro then with all you have, right?

Go ahead, put your money where you mouth is.

I would advise you to look at our own problems here, as all indications are that NAFTA is over, see my last post above.
So get ready for the bumpy ride and let’s leave Europe to itself, it had civilizations 2000 years ago while we have only 150 years history as a country.

#120 bdwy sktrn on 09.13.18 at 3:56 pm

The courses you refer to were post-graduate. Feel free to criticize the policies, not the man. Your words are trite and say more about you. Loser
————————-
gee, thanks garth!

and today i learned that the pre-req for post graduate courses in engineering is a BA in literature. why bother with all those years of punishing differential calculus, eh?

i didn’t call him a loser. dropping out of a very difficult program does not make one a loser. he’s just more of a storyteller/actor than a thinker (ie. make diversity a plank of trade policies)

i still love ya though!

#121 young & foolish on 09.13.18 at 3:59 pm

“What’s so positive about RE anyways?”

Well, nothing really, except that we all need it. It’s not like equities or bonds, it’s a necessity. Aren’t you happy somebody built that place where you sleep in every night?

I agree that RE sale histories should be transparent. But prices today are not only influenced by available credit (although it’s a major reason), but speculation, and municipal policy (supply).

For those who expect prices to drop through the floor, I suggest you head to the nearest Home Depot and conduct some research on material costs (then call some trades people and check out their rates).

RE tends to rise in tandem with inflation (over the long term). There is one other sure way to make money in RE (besides waiting for the price to go up) … secure the building, manage the rentals, and wait until the mortgage is paid down. Simple, requires some work, but effective.

#122 JCH on 09.13.18 at 7:34 pm

#98 Shawn re seat belts:
Thanks for bringing this up – there is no justification for seat belts not being used on buses except wishful thinking. Sure, you’re perfectly safe sitting there not secured — right until you’re not. Statistically you’re quite safe on a bus but we forget that they occasionally have major accidents like every other vehicle.

On a recent trip to Cuba, I was the only person (almost entirely Canadians) on our modern Chinese-made tour bus digging the seat belts out from under the seats and making my daughter put one on. For some reason, they were wrapped around under the seat frames and hidden, instead of being prominently out in the open.

When my son went on a school camping trip 2 hours away, I was so pleased that the principal ordered buses with seat belts, and I checked that the kids put them on.

Really, every kid in Canada has never been in a private vehicle without being secured in a belt, so why should public transport be any different?

I also have always taken the kids’ car seats on airplanes, and insisted to the flight crews that we were going to use them. Babies and kids are used to being secured, so why would they mind on a plane? It’s not much more hassle to bring the carseat through the airport, then you have it at the other end too. Sudden turbulence can fatally injure unsecured people, including your precious children.

I wish more people would be good examples in this manner, which might help make kids safer.

#123 Glenn on 09.14.18 at 11:04 am

“Nor is a 2008 coming again the lifetime of anyone reading this.”

You must have a crystal ball or something to make such a bold prediction.

Debt levels much higher now than 2008, recession just around the corner, trade friction everywhere, Trump, Italy, China, Trudeau!…

Nah, another crash could never happen again in our lifetime. Inconceivable!

Stock markets will of course correct over time. But another global credit crisis? Nope. – Garth

#124 Jib Halyard on 09.14.18 at 1:26 pm

Sounds like the TREB has invoked the notwithstanding clause.

#125 georgist on 09.15.18 at 1:04 pm

> Yes, blockchain is just as promising as the World Wide Web was almost two decades ago. A game-changing technology with a myriad of applications

It’s nothing like the web. Bitcoin has very few (if any) applications that are viable at scale.

Bitcoin is the perfect expression of neoliberalism. Trust nobody, all the time. The cost of this, like in real life, is huge.