From here

Recently this blog’s been crusading. It dissed the real estate gods for massaging, diddling and mispresenting markets stats. It called out realtors who brag and mislead. It provided street evidence of a 20-40% price collapse. The reason is simple. You should know the facts. Canadian housing is in correction, and this is likely to continue. So think twice before you leverage up your family or buy a pre-con condo that could wipe you out in five years.

Also be very careful from this point forward of what you hear from the lips of real estate execs, realtors and brokers, or read in the MSM. They seem to be working hard on the fiction that housing is in recovery mode. It isn’t. Big detour.

Not just the GTA, of course. Sales and prices are falling in Calgary, Edmonton, Victoria and across the Lower Mainland. All real estate is local but the common threads are there – like rising rates, tighter lending regs and seriously over-stretched, indebted households.

Much to the shock of the locals, Vancouver’s no exception. Over the past months we’ve shown tumbling prices on the Westside, cascading sales in the Fraser Value and now a melt on the Island. The latest monthly numbers were, well, piteous.

YVR agent Steve Saretsky has two lessons for us.

First, the state of the market. Sales have crashed. Detached deals, at just 116 in August, were 30% lower than last year and the worst showing in 27 years. This is no blip. Look at the trend.

Meanwhile the number of properties listed is increasing steadily. Inventory’s at a 6-year high for detached houses, and is exploding for condos. While apartment sales are also off 30%, available units have catapulted by 51% with a record 43,000 currently under construction. “In other words,” says Saretsky, “there’s a pipeline of supply coming and the demand might not be there to meet it.”

So, falling demand and rising supply inevitably means one thing – lower prices. Residential real estate is sticky, since sellers never want to admit a weakening market, but eventually it happens. And it’s started. Detached prices in YVR peaked two years ago, and are 18% lower – something the real estate board has not pointed out, and never will. “This is particularly the case in Vancouver’s west side,” adds the agent, “where many detached homes are trading back near 2015 prices, erasing a portion of the bull market run-up.”

So the numbers that realtors report don’t support their own narrative. There is no stabilization, recovery or renaissance. Rather, an analysis shows downward momentum. Sadly those who may be squished flatter than roadkill squirrels are the kids. You know, the moister condo buyers responsible for crazy apartment prices and a buying orgy that resulted in those forty-three thousand units under construction.

Most buys are now pre-con so, as mentioned here many times, this is akin to entering a futures contract. People plunk down money for an asset yet to exist, to be delivered on a future date at a set price. If the market advances, they make money – which is what 100% of buyers expect, allowing them to sell at a profit. If the market reverses, buyers are forced to close on a property worth less than they agreed to pay, for which they’ll probably be unable to secure financing. Crisis. It’s coming.

This, then, is what’s happening in Vancouver. As it is in Toronto, and most of the country inbetween. There is no recovery. Forget that. When the facts change, so will my opinion.

Finally, I told you Steve Saretsky had two lessons.

The second is the value of honesty in a business where sales, commissions, relationships and reputations depend on trust. Never lie to anyone in order to sell something. In the end, there’s nowhere to hide.

About the picture:
“I took this on 27th Street, in Vernon,” says blog dog Barb. “This town has been nightmare this summer… months (yes, months) long closures of numerous downtown roads (several that intersect) to replace aging infrastructure.”

176 comments ↓

#1 First Class! on 09.10.18 at 4:50 pm

“People are completely sick of fees and the boring drama of under-educated inexperienced Realtor cheerleaders. Uber Real Estate provides superior service with the unnecessary overhead, inefficiencies and bureaucracy removed. Uber Real Estate is the much-needed disruption in the Real Estate space.”

“Consumers just want to go online and get it done with Uber – Like Execution. Presently we are completely website driven. An Uber, mobile application, for Real Estate, is under development.”

#2 Realtors Lie on 09.10.18 at 5:00 pm

These people should be put in prison, I cannot believe they, and media outlets, support fake news. It’s actually really disgusting and shameful. I wish the government would slap some regulations on these jackles to prevent misinformation to be touted as real news.

#3 Bluetheimpala on 09.10.18 at 5:02 pm

The west is a shit slurry of bad $. It started there, headed east and is coming home. Mark my words; BC is gonna burn and burn. Whatever happens in Ontario is going to be amplified…at least they have nice weather. Ya boy Blue!

#4 Dave on 09.10.18 at 5:03 pm

The lineup of debt slaves will be far beyond what the eye can see. I expect pot, alcohal and mental health issues to explod.

Rough times ahead if you have serious debt, great times ahead if you have $$$$ and are patient for just a little bit longer.

#5 Left Over on 09.10.18 at 5:04 pm

The other problem in Vancouver, other than taxes, cost and rates, is that many people have decided it’s not that great a place to live at any price.

#6 Millmech on 09.10.18 at 5:06 pm

Lots of single family homes for under 250k in Vernon

#7 Smoking Man on 09.10.18 at 5:07 pm

Read this before you buy real estate in Canada.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/miltonezrati/2018/08/29/going-into-the-nafta-negotiations-canada-has-trouble/#70f3ebec2958

#8 islandgirl on 09.10.18 at 5:09 pm

Neighbours house still on the market, 3 times I’ve seen building inspectors come by and once a construction company. Still no sold sign. I think the house is overpriced by at least $75,000.
I love my home, but deck renovation is going to cost us about $25,000 when it’s all said and done because we’ll have to redo the siding on the house. I’m so thankful we paid significantly less then the current value. Whoever said home ownership is the way to go never things about these things. At least this is our forever home, at least until the kids are gone.

#9 The Wet One on 09.10.18 at 5:20 pm

Eh…

I’m look at Edmonton’s stats over the last 5 years and the year over year comparisons:

https://member.ereb.com/WEB/Documents/pdf/RAENewsRelease-Sep2018.pdf

While number of sales are down and the the numbers of listings are up, the decline in sales is in the single digit percentages and the increase in listings is about the same. Prices are declining slightly.

It’s a buyer’s market to be sure, but collapse isn’t on the horizon. Not like in TO or Vancouver.

There will be some pullback in Edmonton, but catastrophe? I’m not really seeing it. That said, Albertans are over-leveraged so there’s that, but prices weren’t 8 – 11 times household earnings either.

Just a small note.

Edmonton will see a decline to be sure. With improving economic circumstances in Alberta though (i.e. oil prices going up, and if a war breaks out with Iran or wherever Trump decides to wag the dog, WOO HOO!!! GOOD TIMES ARE HERE AGAIN!!!), even with the headwinds against real estate prices, I don’t see the carnage and devastation we’re seeing in TO or Vancouver.

That said, big condo projects are failing to find adequate buyers and are being sold as apartment buildings to apartment operators in E-town so, yeah, things are changing.

But then, when are things not changing?

#10 DandyWormhole on 09.10.18 at 5:26 pm

Hi Garth,

You say ‘“most of the country in between”. Do you think some areas will weather the storm better? Say the Okanagan??

Thanks,

Dandy.

#11 renter in Surrey on 09.10.18 at 5:27 pm

#6 Millmech

Lots of single family homes for under 250k in Vernon

—————————————————————–

The cheapest SFH on zolo in Vernon is $409K

https://www.zolo.ca/index.php?attribute_terms=&has_photos=0&days_on_zolo=0&ptype_condo=0&ptype_townhouse=0&ptype_house=1&stype=&min_price=400000&max_price=0&min_beds=0&min_baths=0&min_sqft=0&openhouse_search=0&filter=1&sarea=Vernon&s_r=1&search_order=2

#12 Meowth from Team Rocket on 09.10.18 at 5:28 pm

Is that a woman in the yellow vest? No wonder the site is using the wrong signs!

Prepare for trouble
Make it double
To protect the world from devastation
To unite all peoples within our nation
To denounce the evils of truth and love
To extend our reach to the stars above
JESSIE! JAMES!
Team Rocket blasts off at a speed of light
Approve this comment or prepare to FIGHT
Meowth! That’s wight!

#13 Peter McLean on 09.10.18 at 5:30 pm

Photo from Vernon, BC. The boys are famous now!

#14 Peter McLean on 09.10.18 at 5:32 pm

#6 Millmech on 09.10.18 at 5:06 pm
Lots of single family homes for under 250k in Vernon

No, there really isn’t.

#15 Peter McLean on 09.10.18 at 5:34 pm

And a note to the photo taker, Barb. I definitely wouldn’t call the traffic in Vernon a nightmare this past summer. That sounds like someone who’s never driven anywhere except Vernon, and maybe Kelowna once in awhile.

#16 renter in Surrey on 09.10.18 at 5:38 pm

B.C. tenants could face largest rent increases in 15 years in 2019

https://www.straight.com/news/1133616/bc-tenants-could-face-largest-rent-increases-15-years-2019

#17 Jungle on 09.10.18 at 5:50 pm

Hmm anyone who bought just two years ago in Gta is likely still in the black , those before have made a handsome profit or a
Killing.

I sat down with a guy yesterday and discuses his networth of 3m for god sakes, never had job over $20 hr but does own a couple houses, condo, bit coin and mutual funds.

#18 gary mcgratten on 09.10.18 at 5:52 pm

Garth, what do you think about putting a few thousand into the Spartan Real Estate Fund, I would think its all about the timing and what they invest in and how long it takes the instruments to lose value from the falling real estate prices?
http://spartanfunds.ca/LibertasRealAsset.aspx

A great idea for wealth you’d like to get rid of. – Garth

#19 Dave on 09.10.18 at 5:53 pm

All the developers I know are bff with the bank managers. Will the big banks ever put significant pressure on their best clients for debt repayment. Forcing price reductions???

#20 Smartalox on 09.10.18 at 5:55 pm

I track the REBGV detached stats every month as well.

The thing that gets me is how the chart above shows that the number of listings in Aug 2017 is about the same (about 100 listings more) than the number of listings in Aug 2018.

Even though prices have declined significantly (down 20%) the number of listings has not yet increased, at least not in a way that would indicate people running for the exits. When the number of listings increases 10 to 15% month over month, then things will get interesting.

I don’t see much cause for decline until at least the middle of next year. The combination of a 20% drop in assessed values realized when notices are mailed out in January, and the failure of the spring 2019 market to ‘bounce back’ in any meaningful way might be just what the market needs.

#21 Cue Mark on 09.10.18 at 5:57 pm

Cue Mark, Loudly complaining that YVR RE has peaked 5 yrs ago, not two.
Also, ignore him.

#22 Andrewski on 09.10.18 at 6:11 pm

First time in at least a decade we’ve had realtors phoning us & also door knocking trying to drum up business.

#23 Newcomer on 09.10.18 at 6:12 pm

#10 DandyWormhole on 09.10.18 at 5:26 pm

Do you think some areas will weather the storm better? Say the Okanagan??

—-

I think everyone agrees that no place in Canada will be hit harder than the Okanagan. The Okanagan has very few jobs above minimum wage, a tiny population and unlimited land, there is no reason for ordinary houses there to cost more than about 200K.

#24 For richer, for poorer on 09.10.18 at 6:13 pm

So I’m browsing Kijiji for tickets to the Leafs home opener and I come across an ad that reads “Tickets can be picked up in person at my home in the Beaches area or transferred via Ticketmaster. I’m a Realtor and happy to provide my id, proof of purchase and anything you need to ensure a secure transaction”….

#25 Hamsterwheelie on 09.10.18 at 6:14 pm

We are battening down the hatches, downsized into a beautiful space we designed for ourselves where everything works (for now, because its new) the difference with our space is the 3 other units in our Victorian brick manse that generate income.
Tenants also have beautiful spaces and the only improvements left are with the landscaping.
Probably spoiled for life and will never see houses that I used to drool over as anything more than high maintenance, no income and too much cleaning.
I think we’ll have more fun entertaining, travelling, enjoying the time we have than trying to impress folks with the size of our dining room or deiveway.
Sure, sounds like I’m gloating but actually really thankful to have found a cheap city w lots to do and a type of freedom afforded to very few – rich or poor.

#26 BlogDog123 on 09.10.18 at 6:15 pm

Doug Ford uses the sledgehammer to get his revenge at Toronto City Hall !

Next he’ll use the nonwithstanding clause to make John Tory drive a unicycle, etc {link to Robot Chicken reference}:
https://youtu.be/WpE_xMRiCLE?t=25s

#27 Harvey Biljaqweck on 09.10.18 at 6:18 pm

What the socialist BC government can’t use price controls for rent. Socialists are such a joke!

#28 Reality is stark on 09.10.18 at 6:19 pm

The whole thing makes me laugh.
My buddy the divorce lawyer says his business is skyrocketing. He says the guys coming in have no idea what hit them. Came from nowhere they say.
They can’t believe one bad move in real estate and it’s all over.
Blame Madonna. We live in a material world Ace.

#29 KLNR on 09.10.18 at 6:24 pm

still lots of greater fools in Toronto.
friend sold her condo this week for 1.3mil
– payed 400k 11 yrs ago.

#30 mortgagebrokeron on 09.10.18 at 6:28 pm

Spoke to 2 different fulltime realtors based in the hamilton/burlington/oakville. These are not shysters!!! I asked them how is business… they said not too busy. 400 new listings per day in the area and around 100 sales per day. So inventory is starting to pile up and prices have a ways to go balance out the supply and demand

#31 HoweStreet.com on 09.10.18 at 6:34 pm

Ross Kay on HoweStreet.com Radio:
Vancouver Home Buyers Turning Up Their Noses as Fall Beckons.
Real Estate Board Presidents looking like Pinocchio.

https://www.howestreet.com/2018/09/10/vancouver-home-buyers-turning-up-their-noses-as-fall-beckons/

#32 Jungle on 09.10.18 at 6:34 pm

Poloz might be on the fence in Oct if we receive anymore underwhelming economic data following that whacky jobs
Report.

I nafta gets scraped with auto tarrif obviously no rate hike

#33 Bill Grable on 09.10.18 at 6:36 pm

Your Picture of a torn up Vernon, is like Vancouver, in miniature. This City is ripped up, and horrible condos are being slammed up and driving is a nightmare.
Quality of life?
It’s destroyed.

#34 yvr_lurker on 09.10.18 at 6:36 pm

Indeed prices have come down around 15% on SF homes on the westside according to my neighbour and friend who is a realtor. There used to be very few under 3.0M even in Kitsilano and Dunbar in April 2017. Now there are many more. He has no idea that we are covert NDP supporters who are delighted that prices are moderating, even if it means our paper “net-worth decreases”. In the end, I hope that the next generation is able to afford to live here, and that due to the decrease in prices, more high tech and innovative companies will establish roots here (and not fear being able to attract and retain top talent). The economy will hopefully diversify AWAY from realestate, corruption and developers.

#35 meslippery on 09.10.18 at 6:39 pm

Looking at the bottom graph if I bought a house in 2002
at about 500k and my wage was $18.00 per hour. In 2018
the house is worth $2.5 million my wage should be $72.00 per hour.
Hmmm I think maybe I found the problem.

#36 Arto on 09.10.18 at 6:46 pm

Way to go, Steve.

He’s the most honest RE agent in BC. When the dust settles, you know who to call.

#37 T on 09.10.18 at 6:51 pm

#17 Jungle on 09.10.18 at 5:50 pm
Hmm anyone who bought just two years ago in Gta is likely still in the black , those before have made a handsome profit or a
Killing.

#32 Jungle on 09.10.18 at 6:34 pm
Poloz might be on the fence in Oct if we receive anymore underwhelming economic data following that whacky jobs
Report.

I nafta gets scraped with auto tarrif obviously no rate hike

——-

Poloz is going to have no choice but to raise rates; inflation is well above targets as well as the very real possibility of creating a crisis in the Canadian dollar by incentivizing money to leave for greener pastures.

Also – give it a rest already. Your eyes deceive and data is king so go get some. There is no room for ‘likely’ and ‘maybe’. It either is or isn’t based on data, not feelings and wishes.

#38 prairie person on 09.10.18 at 6:57 pm

The global financial system is a ticking time bomb. The question is not if it will explode but when it will explode. And once it does, the inability of the global speculators to use fabricated money with zero interest to paper over the debacle will trigger massive unemployment, high prices for imports and basic services, and a devaluation in which the dollar will become nearly worthless as it is abandoned as the world’s reserve currency.

From an article in Truth Dig. Never heard of it before. Itturned up on my Facebook feed. If it is true, we are all doomed. Weère going down with the Titanic. Eat drink and be merry.

#39 Out Of Work CEO, Will Travel on 09.10.18 at 6:57 pm

A couple of years back at the end of the season I rented a condo up on Silver Star Ski Resort just outside of Vernon where I had to go to do the laundry. Up and down the hill from Vernon to Silver Star the bears were out there knoshing day and night after their hibernation. You would have to be careful getting to and from the car especially in the morning as you never know when Mr. or Mrs. Bear would be afoot. The best thing about Silver Star is driving down the mountain to Vernon….very exhilerating as you pass the grazing bears.

#40 OnlyTheBankersLaugh on 09.10.18 at 6:59 pm

Garth, while in government, did you ever try to put forward regulations on reporting these real estate transaction data? I assume that you did and RE cartel brought their Audi driving henchman in. I mean, this is the biggest purchase of people’s lives and they have real estate news that is not sanitized by any objectivity or regulatory body. If it makes sense for a $20k investment, it should make sense for $1M real estate shack to understand the risks. People should be filling out those 10 page investment risk appetite documents.

After all these years, OnlyTheBankersLaugh

The industry is provincially regulated, while my tenure was federal. – Garth

#41 Dolce Vita on 09.10.18 at 7:00 pm

Seems the outlying areas of Langley and Abbotsford are also in trouble as well per Saretsky on Twitter (4h ago).

-Abbotsford condo prices -5% in recent months using MLS Benchmark which he calls a “a lagging indicator” (code for: it’s actually worse in real time).

-Langley sales have fallen 30% and inventory has jumped 111%.

Seems any YVR RE safe haven going to the wayside.

This will not end well.

I have said that this will be largest Cdn. RE asset devaluation in history and it seems well along its way. Expect no last minute miracles as Garth points out .

On a human level of economic well being, many, many will be hurt by this, if not all of us in one way or another.

– – – – – – – – – – – –

Started following Saretsky on Twitter and on YouTube before he became famous. It was his honesty and acumen that I liked.

Good to read today that I am not the only one that thinks this way about him.

#42 Trojan House on 09.10.18 at 7:01 pm

#24 For richer, for poorer on 09.10.18 at 6:13 pm

Leafs suck

#43 Roial1 on 09.10.18 at 7:07 pm

Okay, good pic. of construction. BUT!

WHERE”S THE DOG???????

#44 AGuyInVancouver on 09.10.18 at 7:08 pm

#17 Jungle on 09.10.18 at 5:50 pm
Hmm anyone who bought just two years ago in Gta is likely still in the black , those before have made a handsome profit or a
Killing.

I sat down with a guy yesterday and discuses his networth of 3m for god sakes, never had job over $20 hr but does own a couple houses, condo, bit coin and mutual funds.
_ _ _
Sure you did, Realturd.

#45 Chelsea on 09.10.18 at 7:09 pm

Have been browsing through RE daily for some time, and it seems the RE Housing has stalled somewhat. Hopefully, for B.C. the steam for high price homes will become just a nightmare gone. A few areas the decline in $’s is appearing, but, still way out of making a decent offer. I figure 1M homes will be disappear from the MLS, and anything under that you will see a significant change in the coming months.

There will be buying again, when the corruption behind RE has been dealt with properly.

Cheers!

#46 Jungle on 09.10.18 at 7:19 pm

In the Gta some reported that their properties barely budged from peek in April last year. Looking at average price it appears large, high value properties and luxury homes almost stalled therefor cresting and average skew.
I closely Monitered compareable sales for lower priced properties and I’m going to say they have barely budged.

Many in the Gta reading this now who doesn’t have a mansion can attest to this.

#47 Ustabe on 09.10.18 at 7:23 pm

Doug Ford showing the kind of Progressive Conservative leadership and initiative we can all get behind!

T2 is smiling, between Doug and Maxime he’s probably not going to have to even get out of bed.

This all starts with you people! Until you get off your butts and attend local constituency meetings and let the hierarchy know what kind of party/voice/platform/elected people you want for Canada this type of crap will continue.

Unless this is the type of crap you want…then I don’t know what to say.

#48 Dolce Vita on 09.10.18 at 7:24 pm

What is truly remarkable about Cdn. RE now putting one foot firmly in the abyss of correction/crash is how vulnerable it is to external economic shocks, as has happened in the past (e.g., early 80’s, early 90’s, Great Recession).

So far, the correction has been home spun. The crashing comes from external economic shocks usually resulting in recession.

I believe the external economic shock this time, will come from 1 man South of the border, Trump.

As of late, the man has the annoying habit of delivering on his campaign promises. Yes, everyone talks tough on the Internet but he seems to live by the mantra that he does what he says.

If so, his campaign promise was to repatriate auto production to the US; thus, locking up a couple of auto producing US States during his tenure as President.

I do not see any good coming out of this for Canada in trade, specifically auto.

If he tariffs auto, we are truly screwed economically for a decade, RE along with that. I believe he will do it and Trudeau and Freeland certainly giving him good reason to do so.

Like it or lump it, as ON goes, so goes the nation. Alternative AB independence due to oil and its revenues eroding away at a quickening pace by left extremists with barely a whimper from Canadians in response.

They will say decades from now, we had it coming to us.

I hope not.

#49 Mattl on 09.10.18 at 7:28 pm

#23 Newcomer on 09.10.18 at 6:12 pm
#10 DandyWormhole on 09.10.18 at 5:26 pm

Do you think some areas will weather the storm better? Say the Okanagan??

—-

I think everyone agrees that no place in Canada will be hit harder than the Okanagan. The Okanagan has very few jobs above minimum wage, a tiny population and unlimited land, there is no reason for ordinary houses there to cost more than about 200K.

—————————————————–

Other then you and the other 10 usernames you post under, I don’t think anyone would agree with that. I’m sorry you missed a chance to buy in the Okanagan – homes were insanely cheap the 10 years prior to 2016. I expect that you and your buddy Ogopogo were convinced that a crash was imminent not realizing that home prices barely beat inflation from 2009 – 2015. What a great buying opportunity missed. Important to be able to follow market direction if you are going to comment on RE.

At least rents have been stable:

https://www.kelownanow.com/real_estate/news/Real_Estate/One_bedroom_rental_prices_have_skyrocketed_in_Kelowna/

$1200 for a one bedroom condo and 2.5-3K for a house, 10% YOY increases…. ouch.

Also, the median family income in Kelowna is in line or higher than cities like Victoria, Vancouver and Richmond, all of which have SFH prices that sell for multiples of Kelowna RE. Kelowna median income has been going up as fast as any non resource based city in BC- lots of folks with good jobs coming from YVR, lots of remote employees like myself. I’m sorry you are only able to find minimum wage jobs but it appears that most families are doing much, much better.

#50 young & foolish on 09.10.18 at 7:33 pm

This place is the great national watering hole for disgruntled renters and future wannabe owners. Well folks, prices are coming down, so get your checkbooks out and prepare to bid. Your time is coming.

But will you pull the trigger, or continue to write those rent cheques?

#51 The Wisdom of Disdain on 09.10.18 at 7:37 pm

I often wish it were possible to civilize humans in the same way we domesticated dogs.

It doesn’t appear to be though. It seems that whenever given the opportunity, most people will cheat, lie, and steal. Some will even murder and rape. It probably served some sort of evolutionary advantage in the past. I suppose if your tribe is at war with another tribe there can be no advantage to following any rules. I think that instinct runs strong in humans. In war, the only purpose of rules is to constrain the opponent.

This is why a professional football game needs so many referees. The opportunities to cheat are numerous and the incentive is there to do so. For professionals it’s the money, and for non-professionals it’s some sort of artificially created glory.

That’s why soccer players dive. If you can fool the ref it can win you the game. It’s why public companies need independent auditors. Otherwise the executives will lie their “wazoos” off. It’s why we need the police. Otherwise we would be in a constant vigilantly war with our neighbors (as first expressed in the story of Cain and Able, the part where God put a prohibition on anyone avenging Able). It’s why the CRA has to have the power to audit. It’s why stores need security cameras and guards. It’s why liquor stores need concrete barriers in front. It’s even why you need to lock your front door.

And it is why realtors need to be held accountable for what they say.

Think about the above for a minute and contemplate yourself. Maybe you are above reproach and don’t do any of the above and never have. But don’t view your fellow man that way or your TV will be gone by morning. You can’t even trust your wife or husband not to steal the fortune you’ve accumulated, and you’re sleeping with him or her. You certainly can’t trust a realtor you just met.

I think it is a telling sign about human nature that we can’t even let the kids play soccer without appointing a referee. It says something deeply concerning about human nature. And it also says we universally acknowledge that this disturbing feature is there. We somehow know, instinctively, there can be no human endeavor without third party oversight or abuse will occur. And even then you can’t always prevent corruption of the judge and jury.

I think this is what the story of Adam and Eve was about. It was an early attempt to explain human nature. But the meme behind the story is not a comforting one. Given just one simple rule (don’t eat that fruit), with only 2 people, facing the wrath of an omnipotent God and the loss of paradise and death, the rule will be broken anyway.

Realtors are no different. The fruit is too tempting.

I mean thing about it for a moment. Did Moses really need to bring tablets down from the mountain that said “do not steal, do not murder, do not covet your neighbor’s possessions, do not bear false witness”? You would think it should be pretty obvious. But God knew it wasn’t obvious to humans. Or at least the writers of the story knew it wasn’t.

#52 John Q. Public on 09.10.18 at 7:41 pm

Doug Ford thinks that chopping Toronto city council is so critical to the public interest that it demands invocation of the notwithstanding clause. Care to comment?

#53 tccontrarian on 09.10.18 at 7:44 pm

I don’t know if this is premature jubilation, but …

“Timbeeeerrrrr!!!!!

TCC

ps. Nice to see that our host has finally let the data ‘speak’ and come onboard – changing from the (euphimistic) ‘slow-melt’, into the more accurate, ……………… ‘crash’!
Welcome on board, Garth.

#54 SoggyShorts on 09.10.18 at 7:44 pm

#35 meslippery on 09.10.18 at 6:39 pm
Looking at the bottom graph if I bought a house in 2002
at about 500k and my wage was $18.00 per hour. In 2018
the house is worth $2.5 million my wage should be $72.00 per hour.
Hmmm I think maybe I found the problem.

********************
What makes you think you could have afforded a 500K [email protected]$18/h?
Payments would be more than your take-home.

#55 Dolce Vita on 09.10.18 at 7:45 pm

On a cheerier and final note from me today:

“squished flatter than roadkill squirrels”

THAT was good.

#56 Chaddywack on 09.10.18 at 7:48 pm

Despite the drops, the listing prices on the westside are still stupidly high.

I’m married to a doctor and none of her colleagues who are newly practicing can afford the westside even after the latest drop.

The westside used to be a slam dunk for a doctor to afford…..now many areas of East van are the areas that the doctors are living in due to the prices. We shall see if this changes.

My heart weeps for you. – Garth

#57 Smoking Man on 09.10.18 at 7:50 pm

According to Qanon something big is about to happen.

#58 ANON on 09.10.18 at 7:51 pm

That price chart. Seems familiar. Could it be the imaginary number, derived from principal and time, which grows exponentially until someone starts looking for it and does not find it anywhere? It is called…ummm….worth or something. No, value, that’s the one!

#59 Pete on 09.10.18 at 7:53 pm

John Q. Public on 09.10.18 at 7:41 pm
Doug Ford thinks that chopping Toronto city council is so critical to the public interest that it demands invocation of the notwithstanding clause. Care to comment?

_____________________________________

Ford knows he is out next election. Like a typical conservative he will create as much damage while he enriches himself and all his corporate buddies. Ford and his crooked corporate buddies know Toronto is where all the money is at . Ford doesnt care about any other town or city since only Toronto can quench greedy conservative greed.

#60 Shawn on 09.10.18 at 7:57 pm

Classic double top with bull trap for detached Vancouver prices. Next support level is near $1.5-1.6M. That’s more than 30% lower from current levels.

#61 Shawn on 09.10.18 at 7:58 pm

Looks similar to the Nasdaq top in 2000.

#62 Damifino on 09.10.18 at 8:00 pm

#5 Left Over
#33 Bill Grable

Vancouver isn’t half bad if you’re retired, living down town, renting and well-invested.

You simply do things in the off hours. Don’t even think of shopping on the weekends. Take the bus to Stanley Park on a clear Tuesday afternoon in October. Practically nobody is there. A thousand beautiful acres at your disposal.

Make sure you can walk to get your groceries and just buy what you need. Avoid big crowded events. Do stuff when everyone else is working.

Stay inside and read when the traffic is crazy. Go places like Granville Island late in the day, say, after five PM on a weekday. It’s open till seven and the crowds have all gone home. Be flexible. Make it easy on yourself.

Of course, that’s off the table if you’re working 60 hours a week to meet a mad mortgage on a piece of real estate that’s falling in value and becoming increasingly harder to unload.

#63 meslippery on 09.10.18 at 8:00 pm

#54 SoggyShorts on 09.10.18 at 7:44 pm
————–
Fair enough double the wage to $36.00 in 2002 makes 2018 $144.00 per hour

#64 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 09.10.18 at 8:05 pm

#23 Newcomer
I think everyone agrees that no place in Canada will be hit harder than the Okanagan. The Okanagan has very few jobs above minimum wage, a tiny population and unlimited land, there is no reason for ordinary houses there to cost more than about 200K.
………………………………………………………….

I am not so sure about that. Kelowna is surrounded by mountains on all 4 sides, not a lot of available land left………There has been a lot of “ outside” money coming here over the past 5-10 years, people who cashed in from “ the big smokes “. Lots of mortgage free residents, retirees with pensions and money. Lots of students from the universities requiring rentals…..I am not convinced that Kelowna will feel a lot of pain….But it is a tough place for the young to get a good paying job and buy a home…..I know a lot of kids born and raised here from well off families who moved away to find a decent job. Time will tell……

#65 Gramps on 09.10.18 at 8:06 pm

What I noticed was the $1.41/litre gas.
Same price as northern ont.

#66 Jim Brooks on 09.10.18 at 8:11 pm

3 Smoking Man on 09.10.18 at 9:47 am

“The American dream is back, white picket fences for all down the road.Lower taxes and Deregulation.
Been 100 years since the GDP was higher than the unemployment rate.Go long on the USA…
Nice Work President Trump..”

Guess the 63% of Americans who can’t afford a $1000 emergency hospital visit or a measly $500 emergency car repair didn’t get the memo on how good life in the US of A is….

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/63-of-americans-cant-afford-500-car-repair-or-1000-emergency-room-visit-300200097.html

#67 yvrmc on 09.10.18 at 8:13 pm

# 38 Prairie Person … OK so a financial disaster is on the horizon. Where would you park cash to keep it safe and viable .

#68 Mattl on 09.10.18 at 8:16 pm

My heart weeps for you. – Garth

Amen.

Nauseating… as if a Doctor or anyone else, is entitled to live in a premium area of a world class city. Sooner people realize local real estate in places like West Vancouver is global, they will continue to be disappointed that their high for Canada salary gets them squat.

In these place you are competing against Canada’s truly rich – West Van net worth is highest in Canada at 4MM. That 300K a year doc salary with 500K in debt is not getting you a 3MM home, sorry. Times have changed. Maybe try Maple Ridge.

#69 OttawaMike on 09.10.18 at 8:17 pm

Smoking Man

Trump “mispoke” GDP exceeding unemployment the most in 10 years not 100. He added a zero:

Trump Adviser Says President’s GDP Tweet Had an Extra Zero https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2018-09-10/trump-wrongly-touts-economy-growth-milestone-versus-unemployment

#70 MF on 09.10.18 at 8:17 pm

29 KLNR on 09.10

I’ll call BS on this one. Condos are hot definitely, but only the mid to low end which fetches 450k-900k. That’s all anyone can afford.

Very rare for condos over 1 mil to sell.

#48 Dolce Vita on 09.10.18 at 7:24 pm

Trump also ran on deficit awareness….and then passed that ridiculous tax bill which will add trillions to the deficit. He also campaigned on the slogan that zero interest rates for too long were only benefitting the rich…..and then said he wants rates not to rise. Nice cherry picking of your “observations”.

#51 The Wisdom of Disdain on 09.10.18 at 7:37 p

My entire youth was spent outside playing sports with my friends on the street, in the park etc. There was no referee. Your analysis is overly dark and inaccurate, however the enforcing of morality in the form of rules and laws is absolutely necessary so the sick minority among us are rightfully punished.

32 Jungle on 09.10.18

Interest rates should have risen in 2013. There is no reason or justification for the current level of the prime rate so arguing about it is moot.

MF

#71 Vernon has more problems that detours - try druggies and homlessness on 09.10.18 at 8:31 pm

It is almost as bad in Vernon as it is in Kelowna.

Lot of aggressive homeless people random attacking people out shopping along Bernard St. Most businesses are packing up and leaving.

House prices down 8% month-over-month in Kelowna. They are just starting to turn as the last areas catch the cold that is spreading.

Be careful of buying right now and the outlying areas will be hit harder than the Lower Mainland, just like in 2008.

#72 TRUMP on 09.10.18 at 8:34 pm

WHEN YOUR OPINION CHANGES…

THE FACTS WILL CHANGE!!!

#73 Mattl is a shyster realtor who is lost and trying to find his way home (or one to sell) on 09.10.18 at 8:35 pm

The only realtor I trust right now is Steve Saretsky.

#74 Spock on 09.10.18 at 8:36 pm

@ #59 Pete on 09.10.18 at 7:53 pm

Yes we are all proud to see that the Liberals never benefited themselves or their friends during their 14 odd years tenure.

Wynn was outstanding demanding accountability for the last penny of tax payers money spent.

Oh wait .. . … . .

You must be delusional Pete. Maybe check yourself first.

——————-
#59 Pete on 09.10.18 at 7:53 pm
John Q. Public on 09.10.18 at 7:41 pm
Doug Ford thinks that chopping Toronto city council is so critical to the public interest that it demands invocation of the notwithstanding clause. Care to comment?

_____________________________________

Ford knows he is out next election. Like a typical conservative he will create as much damage while he enriches himself and all his corporate buddies. Ford and his crooked corporate buddies know Toronto is where all the money is at . Ford doesnt care about any other town or city since only Toronto can quench greedy conservative greed.

#75 young & foolish on 09.10.18 at 8:42 pm

I guess like all markets, investment in RE has pushed prices well above reasonable levels. But unlike equity markets, we all need to invest in some version of shelter … own or rent, you shell out.

Therefore, it makes sense to think of RE as a long term unavoidable expense and to find the most effective way to invest in it.

#76 april on 09.10.18 at 8:55 pm

#31 – Ross Kay is such a pain to listen to. He wastes air time by repeating the same thing over and over and seldom gives a straight answer. Also He seldom mentions condos and what’s happening in that market. We’d prefer to read Garth’s posts.

#77 genbizx on 09.10.18 at 8:57 pm

Thanks Rob Ford..don’t give up…the 3 levels of government across this country use up 50% of public cash…we need way less government..

Thanks in advance to the website that will compile awesome info to put control back in the hands of honest consumers and out of the real estate and mortgage cartels…we will look back and wonder why we let these crooks mess up housing for generations to come…maybe we can eliminate agents as they function now altogether

#78 Newcomer on 09.10.18 at 8:59 pm

#49 Mattl on 09.10.18 at 7:28 pm

Also, the median family income in Kelowna is in line or higher than cities like Victoria, Vancouver and Richmond, all of which have SFH prices that sell for multiples of Kelowna RE.

———

With Google making things so easy, I always wonder why people don’t simply check before they type. The median income in the Okanagan is $28,900, the lowest in the province, and probably one of the lowest in the country (http://tinyurl.com/yd35778w). Within the Okanagan, Kelowna is by far and away the poorest population center (http://tinyurl.com/yb9yhwlg).

By the way, I only post under this name. I live in the CoV.

#79 Jungle on 09.10.18 at 9:00 pm

I use to dislike the MLS HPI home price index due to it not being 100% clear and transparent, but Ive been tracking it monthly for 4 years along side with average, median and recently zolo comparable average to see if TREB was doing anything funny with it. Surprisingly, it seems pretty accurate with no unexplained deviation.

With that said, started to go over some monthly/yearly data and treat performance measure like a stock- YTD and CAGR for long term return.

The MLS HPI promises to use the same type of underlaying property, same features, etc so it can measure it’s performance as each month goes by, comparing YOY in the TREB report.

Looking in my area at detach, which saw similar movement in GTA EX york region, it appears that anyone who bought in last years spring market window Feb-July would have over paid between 3-10% based on todays price, using April as the worse month.

So if you WERE a first time buyer, and not in the market, depends on how lucky or unlucky you were, which spring month you bought, prices were rising extreamly fast and quick.

Ex flippers, the impact is minimal considering the sales amount vs population average. Maybe small amount of people bought at peek, assuming they were not already “in ” the market before.

And for condos / semi at that time, they surged money pooled into cheaper RE from regulation changes.

I’m sorry, the fear mongering is overblown.

#80 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 09.10.18 at 9:00 pm

#49 Mattl
Other then you and the other 10 usernames you post under, I don’t think anyone would agree with that. I’m sorry you missed a chance to buy in the Okanagan – homes were insanely cheap the 10 years prior to 2016. I expect that you and your buddy Ogopogo were convinced that a crash was imminent not realizing that home prices barely beat inflation from 2009 – 2015. What a great buying opportunity missed. Important to be able to follow market direction if you are going to comment on RE.
………………………………………

I disagree that houses in the Okanagan were insanely cheap then. They were not.They were fairly valued. It was and still is hard to make a good living here. Hard to find a good paying job or make a buck with your own business. Prices reflected that……It was low interest rates and people with windfall profits from abroad moving here that caused prices to skyrocket.

#81 will on 09.10.18 at 9:05 pm

funny pic. love it.

steve’s 2nd lesson: that is so well put. (i think i’ll say that again: that is so well put.)

#82 TREB getting sneaky now... on 09.10.18 at 9:12 pm

Garth check this out!

https://twitter.com/JohnPasalis/status/1039301684776902660?s=19

https://twitter.com/REWoman/status/1039292754482716672?s=19

#83 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 09.10.18 at 9:16 pm

#49 Mattl
Also, the median family income in Kelowna is in line or higher than cities like Victoria, Vancouver and Richmond, all of which have SFH prices that sell for multiples of Kelowna RE. Kelowna median income has been going up as fast as any non resource based city in BC- lots of folks with good jobs coming from YVR, lots of remote employees like myself. I’m sorry you are only able to find minimum wage jobs but it appears that most families are doing much, much better.
……………………………….
Median family incomes in Kelowna is a tricky subject….many incomes here are pension based incomes, no job required (me). Many people who live in Kelowna work elsewhere and commute to and from Vancouver, Fort Mac., etc. It makes it difficult to determine the income of people who actually live AND have to work here.

#84 Tony on 09.10.18 at 9:16 pm

Re: #48 Dolce Vita on 09.10.18 at 7:24 pm

Trump stated we’re going to normalize rates shortly after his election victory. Not a single person on planet Earth believes that line (except maybe Martin Armstrong). Everyone puts their money where their mouth is in the form of the bond market and long term rates.

#85 Jimers on 09.10.18 at 9:24 pm

So let me get this right. Last year (2017) John Tory increased council to 47 seats, this year Ford moved it back down to 25 seat and suddenly this type of change in ‘unconstitutional’? Sounds like Courts have extreme bias.

#86 akashic record on 09.10.18 at 9:40 pm

#52 John Q. Public on 09.10.18 at 7:41 pm

Doug Ford thinks that chopping Toronto city council is so critical to the public interest that it demands invocation of the notwithstanding clause. Care to comment?

—-

One of the chancellors supporting the proposal had this argument: imagine if you want to organize a simple lunch, where the location, the restaurant and the menu is up for debate… it makes it much easier to get the consensus with 25 people than with 50.

Imagine the same on really complex issues.

Has some merit, especially experiencing how Toronto has turned into a way more unpleasant city to live in, just within a decade. Overcrowded, horrible traffic, horrible public transit.

#87 Make Poor People Rich Again on 09.10.18 at 9:45 pm

Trump will look after his voters.

#88 Dee on 09.10.18 at 9:45 pm

As per my doomer comment yesterday, how does what I posted contradict the current stats? (This is a general question not directed to anyone). 27 year lows – that’s below 2008 levels and any other weak market way before that. Less than years I imagine with much smaller population numbers. With that being where is the floor on prices when that picks up steam? The doomer position just might be the right one for this.

As far as gta goes, it has been trailing vanc by a few months but how different will things look here? If we see 25 year low sales volume, well, that’s not minor. Somehow 25 yr low in volume feels like a much bigger price correction may follow. It’s fair to assume that this is a major event and possible unwinding.

For the record, i am not a doomer but some things feel different. 2008 before the big correction felt different, bitcoin at $20k felt different, gold at $2k felt different. Even a market amateur can see there is something seriously wrong. Places in new market going for $1.2. Decent size but still a long way to civilization. Someone in their right mind with decent avg household income wouldnt touch that at $600k. Thats asking for a life of punishment – and that’s at -50%. I get worried when ppl that are smarter than me & more analytical see a correction of say, 30%. How can this unwind be orderly?

#89 Murray the Vet on 09.10.18 at 9:50 pm

More Vernon comments than I would have expected. You can get away from the traffic-there’s a great hike and a beautiful view from the repeater station seen in the picture at the top of the hill in the background.

#90 Mattl on 09.10.18 at 9:51 pm

73 Mattl is a shyster realtor who is lost and trying to find his way home (or one to sell) on 09.10.18 at 8:35 pm
The only realtor I trust right now is Steve Saretsky.

————————————————————-

You Kelowna doomers are worse then Realtors, or at least on par. You guys – I’m pretty sure it’s just one guy – come here and flat out lie about market conditions. Sounds familiar? I’m just countering your BS with facts. I’m sure it bugs you to learn that RE was flat forever here (and that you missed the boat big time), that median incomes are stronger then markets with homes 2x the price, etc. But these are just facts that anyone looking at a market would want to consider. You guys never respond to my posts you just continue to spray BS.

That’s your core issue – I am sure in 2010, 2014, 2016 you were convinced home prices were about to crash but you don’t have the common sense to actually look at whats happening in the market. This market was DEAD for 8 years, inventory was massive, money was free and you pinheads thought that a crash was about to occur – opposite happened and the market took off. Shocker.

The market is softening and prices will decline but you feel that you deserve subsidized, below replacement housing and therefore will always be on the outside looking in. You wouldn’t know what good buying opportunity was if it hit you in the face. And since your hero’s the NDP killed a few large development projects, expect your rent to continue to go up. I get why your so frustrated but this is pretty easy stuff.

Couldn’t care less what happens to prices, if they crash like you’ve been predicting for 10 years we will be able to afford a place on the water, or we will grab one of these 250K homes you think are coming and rent it out to you for 2800.

#91 akashic record on 09.10.18 at 9:54 pm

#72 TRUMP on 09.10.18 at 8:34 pm

WHEN YOUR OPINION CHANGES…

THE FACTS WILL CHANGE!!!

Changes in opinion certainly can and will change facts, just ask Weinstein, Moonves and others.

Those were in fact the easier changes, caused by shifting opinion.

#92 Chaddywack on 09.10.18 at 9:56 pm

I wasn’t trying to be a s*** disturber (although my wife says I can lean that way).

I just meant that detached homes in half of Vancouver are out of reach for those who are in the top income bracket….it does not make logical sense to me that the top 1% are priced out of essentially half the homes in a city.

Also many of our physician friends have just given up on Vancouver as they cannot afford it and have left. This does not bode well for a sustainable functional city that needs medical care.

#93 IHCTD9 on 09.10.18 at 10:05 pm

#48 Dolce Vita on 09.10.18 at 7:24 pm
———

Agreed 110%

#94 Headhunter on 09.10.18 at 10:09 pm

#70 MF on 09.10.18 at 8:17 pm
#51 The Wisdom of Disdain on 09.10.18 at 7:37 p

My entire youth was spent outside playing sports with my friends on the street, in the park etc. There was no referee. Your analysis is overly dark and inaccurate, however the enforcing of morality in the form of rules and laws is absolutely necessary so the sick minority among us are rightfully punished.

—————————————————

why so angry amigo? Just because you type “loud” doesnt mean you are correct. Ya you played sports outside but we all did.. so wtf is your point? Vegas giving odds? You guys on TV? Sponorship $$$$ at stake?

Thats why that comment is so out there. When $$$ is on the line people cheat. Very surprised you havent learned that lesson, makes one think you have no clue how the world works.

#95 Mattl on 09.10.18 at 10:15 pm

Newcomer on 09.10.18 at 8:59 pm
#49 Mattl on 09.10.18 at 7:28 pm

Also, the median family income in Kelowna is in line or higher than cities like Victoria, Vancouver and Richmond, all of which have SFH prices that sell for multiples of Kelowna RE.

———

With Google making things so easy, I always wonder why people don’t simply check before they type. The median income in the Okanagan is $28,900, the lowest in the province, and probably one of the lowest in the country (http://tinyurl.com/yd35778w). Within the Okanagan, Kelowna is by far and away the poorest population center (http://tinyurl.com/yb9yhwlg).

By the way, I only post under this name. I live in the CoV.

————————————————-
If you are going to try and pull one over on me don’t present median single income for a large region as a counter to median family income for Kelowna.

And it’s pretty silly to post local newpaper articles when you can go right to Statscan data. Which supports what I posted above, that incomes in Kelowna are on par with cities much larger, with significantly more expensive RE. And outpacing any other non resource based BC city.

https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2016/dp-pd/hlt-fst/inc-rev/Table.cfm?Lang=Eng&T=107&SR=1&S=88&O=A&RPP=25&PR=59&CMA=0&CSD=0&D1=1&D2=1

————————————————
#80 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 09.10.18 at 9:00 pm
#49 Mattl
Other then you and the other 10 usernames you post under, I don’t think anyone would agree with that. I’m sorry you missed a chance to buy in the Okanagan – homes were insanely cheap the 10 years prior to 2016. I expect that you and your buddy Ogopogo were convinced that a crash was imminent not realizing that home prices barely beat inflation from 2009 – 2015. What a great buying opportunity missed. Important to be able to follow market direction if you are going to comment on RE.
………………………………………

I disagree that houses in the Okanagan were insanely cheap then. They were not.They were fairly valued. It was and still is hard to make a good living here. Hard to find a good paying job or make a buck with your own business. Prices reflected that……It was low interest rates and people with windfall profits from abroad moving here that caused prices to skyrocket.

—————————————————

I would agree that fairly priced is a good way to describe them. I also agree that it’s not the easiest market to find a manufacturing job, or a service based job. Disagree that it’s not a market that is open to entrepreneurs – there is a distinct lack of trades and professional services companies. A guy could buy an excavator and be booked solid. We can’t find a speech therapist to work with our daughter. Even low skilled work like tree falling – very hard to find someone to take your 2K to drop tree’s for an afternoon. A few large restaurants just opened in town and they are packed to the tits. The wineries are stuffed with people all summer. The city is growing pretty fast and I see a ton of opportunity, but ya traditional employment is tough, not much is made here but that is true of most places these days.

I think you nailed it with a lot of the jobs going to commuters or work from homes. Two direct to Toronto a day, easy access to Van, Calgary, Seattle it really is a dream city for a work from home employee and there are tons of us here.

Great place to live IMO, not sure I get all the doom, I think we will continue to see a migration from the Coast and AB and the city will prosper but who knows.

#96 akashic record on 09.10.18 at 10:17 pm

“Millennial bashing a national pastime”

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-09-06/real-reason-millennials-are-struggling-infographic

#97 Remembrancer on 09.10.18 at 10:20 pm

#91 akashic record on 09.10.18 at 9:54 pm

True but certain facts remain facts regardless of ones opinion, how hard their shouting to convince you or some 1980s-style self-affirmation and goal visualisation for success crap – hitting that brick wall at 100km is gonna hurt regardless of how many positive thoughts you might have…

#98 ricky on 09.10.18 at 10:29 pm

One of the chancellors supporting the proposal had this argument: imagine if you want to organize a simple lunch, where the location, the restaurant and the menu is up for debate… it makes it much easier to get the consensus with 25 people than with 50.

===

Why not have only one councilor then? Instant consensus!
You make a silly argument.

#99 Remembrancer on 09.10.18 at 10:29 pm

#47 Ustabe on 09.10.18 at 7:23 pm
Unless this is the type of crap you want…then I don’t know what to say.
—————————————————————
Ya got that – I’m more for fiscal responsibility then suspending the constitution myself…

#100 Linda on 09.10.18 at 10:30 pm

To Barb who supplied today’s photo – I feel your pain. While we don’t live in Vernon, we too are experiencing major infrastructure upgrades where we live & the construction delays they engender. We literally can’t get into or out of our neighborhood w/o passing through a construction zone & this state of affairs is expected to continue throughout 2019.

On the plus side, once the upgrades are finally complete we should have absolutely stellar infrastructure to service our area for decades to come.

#101 Toni on 09.10.18 at 10:31 pm

Long time reader… since 2008 … yes … I finally succumbed and I thank you for enlightening us for so many years. Witnessed the 80s / 90s crisis, still young then. Older, witnessed the rising prices in BC and the arrogance of the owners who were only selling to the highest bidder. With 3 children to raise, I chose to fill the fridge and their lunch boxes rather than bite to the bank offers. I knew what I could afford to keep my family budget balanced, and the banks were offering me twice the amount I calculated. I could not believe it. I finally buy a small cottage in 2015, remote, cheap, what I thought I could afford for my retirement. After 2 years, I realized that I was not made to be “owner”, I sold in spring 2018 at a good price. I was told, hey you made money. No. I did not lose, I did not win: when I counted everything, it was the same, less the worries. I was lucky enough to sell. The big thing that has changed since is the feeling of freedom that I found when everything was signed, settled. Renting again, I sleep very well. My balcony will be rebuilt by the owner $ 15,000 at his expenses. When there is something to replace, I call the manager. I do not have to commute and I can leave when I want, within 30 days; it’s unbeatable. I was raised on strict principles and my parents always told us to buy what we could afford, not what we were dreaming about. For them the dreams allowed to advance in life, to fight, to persevere and collect the fruits. They are gone but I could not thank them enough and I went on to educate my children who are doing fine, millennials & renters, enjoying a decent life and travelling. Among my former colleagues, one could not stop to buy one, then 2, then 3 houses / condos, as a retirement plan: renting to pay the mortgage, that is the plan, indebted up to $1 million just before heading to retirement, I tried to dissuade, I referred your blog so many times. I picked up the subject during a professional development day. 2 persons agreed, the rest had their eyes rolling. Thanks again to you Garth for your constant financial education, based on very simple principles, the common sense. I just did not think it would take that long…So now, what? What will happen to these people, their families? And to all of us, cautious or not, we may end up with a joint liability. My question: is Canada moving towards a financial, economic and social crisis comparable to the one the US went through? I would say yes. Higher taxes, and new NAFTA may not be helpful and we are not so big to not fail. Thanks again.

#102 viorlli on 09.10.18 at 10:39 pm

Many people here in BPOE are still delusional about the housing prices: “the rents are getting insanely high, land is shrinking due to rezoning and land assemblies, Chinese are still coming, they will be allowing lane way homes with basements soon, CAD is dropping, Americans are buying Whistler and Squamish, paper is getting devalued, a container of organic ketchup is $5.99, small box of strawberries is $4.99, etc, etc.” What they don’t realize is that the prices cannot increase forever, something has to give. If the groceries, ICBC, gasoline, hockey fees for kids, property taxes, insurance, etc. keep going up but the wages are frozen and jobs are being lost (last month’s report), then people have less $$$ to spend on vacations, hockey, homes, renos, nice cars, and hookers. It is only a matter of time and a mathematical must that the prices will drop. How fast and how much is still being debated, but nonetheless! Industries that will do well:

1. Divorce law (some are not even accepting new clients as they are busy like hell)
2. Mental health
3. Addiction therapy
4. Repo and loan collectors (many are also overwhelmed)
5. Food banks and expired canned foods (record shortage of donations and demand)
6. Shared accomodations (been happening for a while already)
7. Police and security
8. Cameras and investigations (lots of road rage, B&B)
9. Marijuana and harder drugs (soon to be legal, good luck staying a landlord)
10. Paramedics and nurses (RN is always in demand, even more so now)

My son’s friend is an ER nurse in Royal Columbian, they are running out of beds in the morgue due to overdoses, he is being asked to work OT all the time and is slowly getting burned out. Not a very bright future we are setting our kids to. Get off the RE and debt propaganda machine, save and invest as much as possible while staying frugal. You will need all those savings just to survive, for many, however, it is already too late!

#103 IHCTD9 on 09.10.18 at 10:42 pm

#94 Headhunter on 09.10.18 at 10:09 pm
#70 MF on 09.10.18 at 8:17 pm
#51 The Wisdom of Disdain on 09.10.18 at 7:37 p

My entire youth was spent outside playing sports with my friends on the street, in the park etc. There was no referee. Your analysis is overly dark and inaccurate, however the enforcing of morality in the form of rules and laws is absolutely necessary so the sick minority among us are rightfully punished.

—————————————————

why so angry amigo? Just because you type “loud” doesnt mean you are correct. Ya you played sports outside but we all did.. so wtf is your point? Vegas giving odds? You guys on TV? Sponorship $$$$ at stake?

Thats why that comment is so out there. When $$$ is on the line people cheat. Very surprised you havent learned that lesson, makes one think you have no clue how the world works.
— ————-

MF might have forgot how those games went. My youth was spent playing hockey in the street, alley, and playground. I’d sneak up behind an opposing player and use my stick like an axe to knock his stick out of his hands. I’d cross check the hell out of other players who I knew wouldn’t “drop the gloves” with me. Interference galore, these un-ref’d games were largely responsible for teaching me how to fight lol!

I don’t remember these games being a shining example of unmoderated rule of law – they were free for all’s.

#104 MF on 09.10.18 at 11:01 pm

94 Headhunter on 09.10.18 at 10:09

You missed the point, which was not “all” people cheat. For the ones that do, a referee is needed.

If you believe all people are amoral, whether money is involved or not, than you surround yourself with people of low moral caliber.

Not angry, just calling out bs when I think I see it.

MF

#105 Overheardyou on 09.10.18 at 11:10 pm

Too bad we don’t have stats on how many deals fell through cause the buyer couldn’t get funding or liquidate their existing property

#106 DON on 09.10.18 at 11:41 pm

The market is softening and prices will decline but you feel that you deserve subsidized, below replacement housing and therefore will always be on the outside looking in. You wouldn’t know what good buying opportunity was if it hit you in the face. And since your hero’s the NDP killed a few large development projects, expect your rent to continue to go up. I get why your so frustrated but this is pretty easy stuff.

***********************

Last time I checked a 1000 board feet of 2×6 Spruce/Pine/Fir has NOT gone through the roof. As things slowly melt…less builders around – all competing for fewer projects in a downward market. Don’t be surprised is the replacement cost of a home changes. The fact remains – a change in public sentiment caused mainly by un-affordable prices and tapped out consumers. Then as many others have tirelessly point out to you – an external economic shock, interest rates going up…and the list goes on.

You need to go somewhere else and try to convince others in your quest to turn this market around. This

My Hero’s are the BC Liberal’s who stood by and watched the Money Laundering cause it was good for their Provincial coffers. Now because of the BC Liberal’s lack of action people got sucked into the bubble mania. Gotta love those BC Liberals…their main source of donations come from realtors, developers, mortgage brokers, used and new car sales people and big big business looking for a hand out. YUP! My new role models. Where are all the foreign buyers – apparently they are no longer chasing old run down houses on the east side and west side of the world class city aka Vancouver – LOL.

#107 DON on 09.10.18 at 11:49 pm

#83 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 09.10.18 at 9:16 pm

#49 Mattl
Also, the median family income in Kelowna is in line or higher than cities like Victoria, Vancouver and Richmond, all of which have SFH prices that sell for multiples of Kelowna RE. Kelowna median income has been going up as fast as any non resource based city in BC- lots of folks with good jobs coming from YVR, lots of remote employees like myself. I’m sorry you are only able to find minimum wage jobs but it appears that most families are doing much, much better.
……………………………….
Median family incomes in Kelowna is a tricky subject….many incomes here are pension based incomes, no job required (me). Many people who live in Kelowna work elsewhere and commute to and from Vancouver, Fort Mac., etc. It makes it difficult to determine the income of people who actually live AND have to work here.
***************

Nope Kelowna is all good, no downward momentum at all expected. All the high paying jobs in and out of town will ensure Kelowna stands tall – while virtually every other part of BC falls in comparison. Nope Kelowna will return to it’s pre-bubble “good times”. Retires will keep the area in top economic shape…cause they will be there forever.

Yup Kelowna will be fine…cause they lack the land with desert views…Oh and the forest fire smoke just beckons people to move to the best place on earth….KELOWNA.

#108 The Real Mark on 09.10.18 at 11:55 pm

Poloz is going to have no choice but to raise rates; inflation is well above targets as well as the very real possibility of creating a crisis in the Canadian dollar by incentivizing money to leave for greener pastures.”

Inflation has spent the past decade at less than 1.6%/annum well beneath the 2% target. So a few prints higher than 2% can easily be tolerated. Enormous deflationary forces are building especially with the collapse of Canadian RE, collapse of investment intentions in the oilpatch, and very little else to step in and fill in the void. Nearly every profession is in substantial oversupply now. Even newly minted doctors can’t find residency training spots. Inflation, good lord, in an economy pickled with debt, basically impossible aside from short-term transient excursions.

Next BoC move needs to be a cut. Poloz may very well have guaranteed him a systemic crisis by raising rates even as high as they’ve been raised. Should’ve stopped 50bp ago instead of letting things melt as bad as they have. The yield curve is screaming, DANGER, DANGER. This is an “general quarters all hands man your battle stations moment”, not time to be raising rates. The ship is sinking. The CAD$ may very well be weak because of the higher rates which are clearly sacrificing Canada’s economic output potential.

BTW, the theory that money just blindly and dumbly chases higher rates has been proven to be nonsense many times over.

#109 The Wisdom of Disdain on 09.11.18 at 12:05 am

#70 MF

My comments didn’t apply directly to kids playing street hockey. Small “for fun” activities like those are self regulating because if someone starts cheating the other kids will either exclude him or go home. The games rely on a mutually agreed upon set of rules. However, put 2 different groups of kids against each other from different schools….

#94 Headhunter

Exactly. I’m surprised MF missed it.

#110 IHCTD9 on 09.11.18 at 12:17 am

One of the most foolish things a young dude can do these days, is to dive into 100k worth of tuition debt getting a standard issue mainstream degree or two. This will force our hapless young Mil/Z’er into a nightmare existence trying to make a life in an infested urban dump like the GTA.

Here, he will fight against an endless tide of newcomers willing, and even happy to work for half the going rate. Even the crap jobs will see intense competition from new job seekers. You’ll need to find something to pay the bloated rent, and somehow knock down the OSAP loan. Good luck, and don’t forget Timmies pays the same in Sudbury as it does in Mississauga.

Don’t expect to hook up long term with a local female either. The bars are filled with single young Women, but over half of them are chasing the best looking, most eligible guy in the place – and that ain’t you. Welcome to the urban landscape, where appearances are what count – even if it’s fake. Oh, and you don’t make 100K? And you rent a 1 bed condo? Don’t bother with that Tinder account either, it’s even worse than the bars.

Think carefully about what you want out of life. After 20 years doing the same thing, it’s just a job anymore. Don’t matter if you’re a physician or a roofer, the day will come when it’s old hat. Selling your soul to the government, the bank, or a profession only produces anxiety in the long term. It’s just a job, and you are no better or worse than anyone else because of it.

When I look at the IHCTD9 household today, it’s not what we do for a living that makes me smile, it’s what we’ve managed to do with the proceeds thereof. I feel great that the mortgage was gone years ago. I feel great that we’ve managed to build some savings. I feel great that we’ve always had the bases covered financially. My job? Happy for it of course, but I’m the same guy doing sales as I would be mowing lawns for a living. I like my job, but that’s not enough to bring real happiness.

Ms. IH has 2 degrees and has been working doing EXACTLY what she wanted to do since high school for over 20 years. If I won the lottery tomorrow, would she retire? You bet your @ss she would. She, like me; can think of many better ways to spend her day other than sitting in her office.

I look forward to using my days for doing what I truly enjoy too – and that ain’t working for the man. I suggest you young folks figure out how to get there ASAP as well. Living hand to mouth in Toronto renting a condo for 35+ years means retirement will be no reward for your efforts. Living on CPP and OAS worrying about what the condo board is planning will suck yuge. You can do better.

In 2018, doing what everyone else is doing is a financial death sentence. Stay out of debt with low ROI, stay out of big urban landing pads. Get a job where you can live with room to spare via the local incomes. Play it smart, and you’ll gain peace of mind, security, and a bright view for the future.

#111 slick on 09.11.18 at 12:20 am

#59 Pete

John Q. Public on 09.10.18 at 7:41 pm
Doug Ford thinks that chopping Toronto city council is so critical to the public interest that it demands invocation of the notwithstanding clause. Care to comment?

_____________________________________

Ford knows he is out next election. Like a typical conservative he will create as much damage while he enriches himself and all his corporate buddies. Ford and his crooked corporate buddies know Toronto is where all the money is at . Ford doesnt care about any other town or city since only Toronto can quench greedy conservative greed.
——————
that is exactly the attitude of the previous Liberal government. they tore down coal plants so that the next gov’t could restart them. They erased computer files, hid gas plant secrets, minimum wage raises, started an extra welfare raise program,did as much damage as possible.
All their friends got gov’t contracts, early warning about rule changes, cherry picked candidates, on and on.
Ford has seen the dithering that toronto council has done. Passed Bill #5 ASAP after the election. And then some pussy Liberal judge overturns it. Good for Ford for playing the not-withstanding clause.
Kills the carbon tax scheme, fantastic! What a scam that is.
Changing the way pot is gonna be sold. that was another layer of Liberal bureaucracy we didn’t need.
Let electric cars carry their own weight. IDC.
The Liberals had the province because of TO. and they effed it up. Stupid idiots.

#112 Smoking Man on 09.11.18 at 12:20 am

#66 Jim Brooks on 09.10.18 at 8:11 pm

3 Smoking Man on 09.10.18 at 9:47 am

“The American dream is back, white picket fences for all down the road.Lower taxes and Deregulation.
Been 100 years since the GDP was higher than the unemployment rate.Go long on the USA…
Nice Work President Trump..”

Guess the 63% of Americans who can’t afford a $1000 emergency hospital visit or a measly $500 emergency car repair didn’t get the memo on how good life in the US of A is….

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/63-of-americans-cant-afford-500-car-repair-or-1000-emergency-room-visit-300200097.html
……

The opportunities are here. If your an idiot or dimwit coward socialist that is terrified of a little risk, well poverty is your destiny.

We will not let you steal our labour credits with out a fight.

Risk = Success
Fear = Poverty.

And they thought Einsten had the best formula going.

I’m the Smoking Man and I know shit..

#113 Myra Andrews on 09.11.18 at 12:21 am

Real Estate stats for the Greater Vancouver area from realtor Paul Boenisch

Sept 10 New 487 Sold 87 TI:12,916

Sept 7 New 197 Sold 87 TI:12,681
Se 5|6 New 609 Sold 195 TI: 12,653
Sept 4 New 498 Sold 53 TI: 12,439

Inventory at the end of August was 12,510

#114 fishman on 09.11.18 at 12:31 am

I know; I thought all the millennials were useless too. Especially since the boom in the “patch” creamed off all the good ones. Last year I hired one that had come back because with the downturn, the overtime & big money was gone. He figured might as well spend a winter here. He was good, I hired his friend. Couple a weeks ago got another one from Edmonton. Great boys, good workers, no goofing off,get the job done attitude. The secret is they got to do do a winter on the rigs with a screamer for a Push to tune em up.
My latest hire is staying downtown in a hostel till he gets settled. Out of province ID only accepted. 300 guests, 3 bunks/room, $42/night, full. Welcome to Vancouver.

#115 Myra Andrews on 09.11.18 at 1:25 am

Chaddywack:
“I wasn’t trying to be a s*** disturber (although my wife says I can lean that way).

I just meant that detached homes in half of Vancouver are out of reach for those who are in the top income bracket….it does not make logical sense to me that the top 1% are priced out of essentially half the homes in a city.

Also many of our physician friends have just given up on Vancouver as they cannot afford it and have left. This does not bode well for a sustainable functional city that needs medical care.”

I got what you were getting at. There is something wrong when the top 1% cannot afford to buy in Vancouver. I work with people in their late 30’s who have good incomes and they cannot afford to buy a detached house except maybe in Maple Ridge which means a very long commute to work. And Garth shame on you for you sarcastic comment. “My heart weeps for you. – Garth”

#116 Smoking Man on 09.11.18 at 1:30 am

A teal man’s wife wrote this song.
https://youtu.be/y8cp1KvZKPo

#117 jane24 on 09.11.18 at 1:35 am

I remember going to the Okanagan to check out if we could make a living there with our young family as we were sick of the urban TO area. We have family there and the winters are very short. We found a series of lovely but definitely one-horse towns, no jobs other than seasonal and winter shut-downs in many places. Plus a sense of isolation from the rest of the world. Very Hotel California. No international airports. No culture just big toys on the lake in summer. Hard to escape.

So we didn’t move and stayed in south coast England. No way are these towns worth big RE money. There is very little there, other than my relatives of course.

#118 yvrguy on 09.11.18 at 1:57 am

#92 Chaddywack on 09.10.18 at 9:56 pm
I wasn’t trying to be a s*** disturber (although my wife says I can lean that way).

I just meant that detached homes in half of Vancouver are out of reach for those who are in the top income bracket….it does not make logical sense to me that the top 1% are priced out of essentially half the homes in a city.

Also many of our physician friends have just given up on Vancouver as they cannot afford it and have left. This does not bode well for a sustainable functional city that needs medical care.

—————————–

It’s happening.

A high school friend who’s now a neurosurgeon in Van, wife a lawyer, two DINKS and are like, “we’ll never buy here, it’s ridiculous.” they’re planning to move solely due to this clusterf*** of a housing mess.

Their household income probably cresting 7 figs… if they don’t see the value in planting roots here long term – then something is SERIOUSLY WRONG.

Congrats Vancouver, you’re going to lose two more exceptionally talented people.

World class with no doctors, nurses or surgeons.

Slow clap.

#119 Smoking Man on 09.11.18 at 2:00 am

When a drunken nictonite makes a friend on earth.

https://youtu.be/uGZh6b-Fkxo

#120 aa3 on 09.11.18 at 2:41 am

Do you guys remember those knife catchers from a few months back on here, who were rushing in to buy on the first 5-10% decline?

#121 Stan Brooks on 09.11.18 at 4:10 am

#32 Jungle on 09.10.18 at 6:34 pm
Poloz might be on the fence in Oct if we receive anymore underwhelming economic data following that whacky jobs
Report.

I nafta gets scraped with auto tarrif obviously no rate hike

So you still have some time to move your money out of loonie nominated assets/invest elsewhere.

Or you believe that a country with no economy can sustain a healthy housing market at the top of the biggest ever credit bubble with no other industries left?

I intentionally said above ‘believe’ as I can not explain it as any form of a rational thinking, even 2 neurons cell brain can determine where this is going.

#122 SimplyPut7 on 09.11.18 at 4:36 am

#96 akashic record on 09.10.18 at 10:17 pm

American millennials have different problems than Canadian millennials:

* US: ‘we live in a world where a college degree is a requirement for a job’ high school unemployment is 4.6%, associate degree 3.4%, bachelor degree 2.5%
* Canada: where in Canada do we have such low unemployment for any level of education? if high school unemployment was only 4.6% in Canada, there would be many people who would delay going to college/university or not go at all

* US: 15% of millennials live with their parents
* Canada: 35-50% of millennials live with their parents
https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2016/as-sa/98-200-x/2016008/98-200-x2016008-eng.cfm

* US: median age people have their first child 26
* Canada: Average fertility is 1.6 per woman compared to 2.0 per woman in the US, Canada also has more seniors (65+) than children under the age of 15
https://globalnews.ca/news/3429950/canada-fewer-children-census-216/

* US: median is $954
* Canada: average 2 bedrooms apartment $989
In the US I can live an hour outside of any major city and the cost of rent is a lot less and buying a house is only 2 to 3 times my income. Most cities in the GTA are very expensive to rent or to own, same in YVR.

Cost of going to school in the US is more expensive, but that’s only if you go to an Ivy league school, if you are willing to go to a state university the cost is much less and you can get full scholarships more easily than you could if you were in Canada.

As much as Americans complain about how hard it is for young people to make it in the US, it’s still easier than trying to make it in Canada. Just don’t get sick or get shot in the US and you will be fine.

#123 Buy? Curious? on 09.11.18 at 5:29 am

When realtors hear that Garth is retiring.

https://youtu.be/rDzufb8V5Hg

#124 Happy Housing Stabilization Everyone! on 09.11.18 at 6:31 am

Filthy DOOMERS blaming missed real estate gains on Realtors. Dirty lying DOOMERS just jealous they watched a good opportunity sail by. Nothing worse than petty rotten DOOMERS. Jungle and Mattl dropping mics on you whiny DOOMERS.

Happy Housing Stabilization Everyone!

#125 BillyBob on 09.11.18 at 6:46 am

#117 jane24 on 09.11.18 at 1:35 am
I remember going to the Okanagan to check out if we could make a living there with our young family as we were sick of the urban TO area. We have family there and the winters are very short. We found a series of lovely but definitely one-horse towns, no jobs other than seasonal and winter shut-downs in many places. Plus a sense of isolation from the rest of the world. Very Hotel California. No international airports. No culture just big toys on the lake in summer. Hard to escape.

So we didn’t move and stayed in south coast England. No way are these towns worth big RE money. There is very little there, other than my relatives of course.

===============================

This resonates. The Okanagan and the Kootanees are both very pretty but I’d be interested to hear what the defenders cite as all these well-paying jobs that apparently exist. What industries are there, precisely? Some resource jobs. Tourism. (how’s that working with the fires?). Places like Nelson have their massive pot ops, of course.

But these provide good incomes for the few, not the many. Have to call bs on the economic cheerleaders.

#126 dharma bum on 09.11.18 at 7:11 am

#102 Viorlli

Get off the RE and debt propaganda machine, save and invest as much as possible while staying frugal.
——————————————————————–

The above statement is all you need to know.

Read it.

Memorize it.

Live it.

It is the way to financial freedom.

#127 Oft deleted much maligned stock.picker on 09.11.18 at 7:34 am

https://m.washingtontimes.com/

Ryan…..you’re a Trump Dumper…..you gotta read this. Trudeau/Butts were waiting for the “resistance” to flare up and Helter Skelter to ignite for the mid terms. Too bad about that…..mlooks like Obozos a dud…..a fizzle.

Now we’re stuck with a foot dragging dumbo as PM with no NAFTA….a freaking rush out the door of direct foreign capital and Canada’s largest companies stating that no new work will proceed while Juniors collusion course for an inevitable crash into Dopers island grounds Canada.

The international community is laughing at Trudeau’s leadership of Canada…. Liberals have pissed away all political capital and all credibility is lost. Best advice…..diversify outside Canada into US dollars. I believe the vindictive Liberals will sabotage Canada’s economy with insane pledges to Paris like accords and national resource legislation hard to unwind.

We can only hope that Andrew Scheer might step aside for Doug Ford to run as Pzm.

#128 incredible on 09.11.18 at 7:42 am

how people can get their minds so wrapped around a topic. So real estate had a good month, so what? why are people so angry ?

i don’t get it

#129 Trumpocalypse2018 on 09.11.18 at 7:43 am

Just a taste of what lies ahead. A soon to be Category 5 storm has Americans emptying the shelves of supplies.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/11/us/hurricane-florence-south-east-coast-wxc/index.html

Trumpocalypse will be Category 500.

PREPARE.

#130 Howard on 09.11.18 at 8:10 am

#59 Pete on 09.10.18 at 7:53 pm

John Q. Public on 09.10.18 at 7:41 pm
Doug Ford thinks that chopping Toronto city council is so critical to the public interest that it demands invocation of the notwithstanding clause. Care to comment?

_____________________________________

Ford knows he is out next election. Like a typical conservative he will create as much damage while he enriches himself and all his corporate buddies. Ford and his crooked corporate buddies know Toronto is where all the money is at . Ford doesnt care about any other town or city since only Toronto can quench greedy conservative greed.

——————————————

Can you explain what cutting Toronto council has to do with “enriching himself and his corporate buddies”?

Btw it was Orville’s government that was stealing middle class taxes to subsidize rich people buying Teslas.

#131 Jim Brooks on 09.11.18 at 8:14 am

#112 Smoking Man

“The opportunities are here. If your an idiot or dimwit coward socialist that is terrified of a little risk, well poverty is your destiny.”

Well based on your impeccable logic then, 63% of Americans, or almost 2/3 of Americans are dimwit coward socialists who are terrified of a little risk. That translates to over 200 million people… A socialist haven if there ever was one!

#132 Tater on 09.11.18 at 8:28 am

#32 Jungle on 09.10.18 at 6:34 pm
Poloz might be on the fence in Oct if we receive anymore underwhelming economic data following that whacky jobs
Report.

I nafta gets scraped with auto tarrif obviously no rate hike

—————————————————————-
Except Wilkins said quite clearly that they are going to continue hiking, and the market is pricing in a greater than 80% chance for October.

#133 Another Deckchair on 09.11.18 at 8:55 am

Sold a condo we had in a beautiful heritage building in a University town just west of Toronto.

Had it for about 8 years; purchased it because, well, it was difficult to find good accommodation for kids going to Uni, especially as none of us lived close to the city. Partner and I thought we’d hold on to it and use it as a retirement getaway, so rented it out to a couple of GREAT tenants.

Was it worth purchasing? In 8 years, it went up about 60%, but the costs (condo fees, property taxes, repairs) were not worth it. Great for the kids, but not a great investment.

Maybe if equities went through another 2008, we’d be viewed as brilliant … but our money would have been better as per Garths’ recommendations.

For the purchasers, I think it is a good move. Walkable to everywhere one would want to go, 5 mins would get you to the city centre, bus/train station, university. Nice quiet building, very well managed. Heritage building, very well done, not a particle board box. And, if you are living there, no problem with the owner selling the property from under you.

#134 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 09.11.18 at 9:21 am

Happy Housing Stabilization Everyone! on 09.11.18 at 6:31 am
Filthy DOOMERS blaming missed real estate gains on Realtors. Dirty lying DOOMERS just jealous they watched a good opportunity sail by. Nothing worse than petty rotten DOOMERS. Jungle and Mattl dropping mics on you whiny DOOMERS.

Happy Housing Stabilization Everyone!
—————————————————————-

LOL you Dirty lying Scumbag SHYSTER. You can fool yourself if you want to but the financial pain will continue for you vermin SHYSTERS. You dirty SHYSTERS are suffering such financial pain that you try to sue your clients for sales you haven’t even completed. You useless SHYSTERS are so hated and that hate is growing in Canada. I read in the US SHYSTERS were assaulted when the masses woke up to their crimes of lies. Will that happen here in Canada? I just know I wouldn’t want to be a dirty, filthy, lying, useless, broke, high school drop out SHYSTSER.

#135 mesch on 09.11.18 at 9:43 am

98 ricky on 09.10.18 at 10:29 pm
One of the chancellors supporting the proposal had this argument: imagine if you want to organize a simple lunch, where the location, the restaurant and the menu is up for debate… it makes it much easier to get the consensus with 25 people than with 50.

——————————————–

Yes… because important council decisions that affect millions of people are equal to picking a spot for lunch.

#136 Mattl on 09.11.18 at 9:58 am

106/107 Don:

My point isn’t that everything is fine in Kelowna, or that prices will not drop, or that per sqft building costs are reasonable. Like all cities in Canada Kelowna is going to get hit. Spec taxes, rising rates, less cash coming from the Coast, etc, etc. If the NDP is committed to running Albertans out of this city then it could get ugly, at least in the short term.

I’m trying to provide a counter argument to the pinheads that come here every day and throw doom at the Okanagan. Garth always talks about market fundamentals – well they aren’t THAT bad here. It’s all relative and no matter how the doomers want to spin it. Net worth, median family income, sfh to median income ratios are all better / in line with YVR and Victoria. And we never really had the run up like YVR and the GTA had – it’s not crazy to think the correction will be relative to the run up.

#137 IHCTD9 on 09.11.18 at 10:01 am

#122 SimplyPut7 on 09.11.18 at 4:36 am

As much as Americans complain about how hard it is for young people to make it in the US, it’s still easier than trying to make it in Canada.
_______________

Indeed. Canada’s emigration rate is 5X higher than that of the USA. Where are all the Canadians going? To the good old USA…

The other factor to consider is no matter where you read or hear about millennials having it so tough, you find out that they are urban dwellers with a big education. These kids turned their brains off a while ago if they thought 6 figure debts, crap wages, and living in a box smaller than my back deck for 3K/mo. was a good plan. They stuck it to themselves, but now evidently the fault lies elsewhere…

Outside the Urban areas, the kids seem to be doing fine as far as I can tell. They own houses, get married and have kids, couple decent vehicles and a toy or two in the garage. The kids I know almost all have working spouses, probably make 90-100K household incomes, and live in houses that cost under 300K. That adds up to a pretty comfortable existence no matter how you slice it.

A GTA couple would likely need at LEAST a 400K+ household income to lead a lifestyle similar to the kids described above.

#138 NoName on 09.11.18 at 10:01 am

I was always fan of bozos two pizza rule, although he never reviled size, iam thinking its xl, 12 slices per pizza.

#139 45north on 09.11.18 at 10:16 am

Jungle: the fear mongering is overblown

You’re saying if you’re not speculating, then the drop in prices is no big deal. True but if you are, it is a big deal and it’s just now we find out how many people are speculating.

More than a quarter of homes for sale in Toronto are empty

Danielle Park links to this article.

https://www.zolo.ca/news/homes-for-sale-in-toronto-are-empty

Pasalis goes on to explain that many sellers are still expecting to see the kind of price increase and frantic action we saw back in 2017. The reasons for holding out could be an unrealistic or unreasonable expectation or it could be because these sellers are too financially tied to the property. If many home flippers accepted today’s market prices, they would experience a significant financial loss after considering any rehab and construction costs incurred after purchasing properties in 2017 prices.

#140 millmech on 09.11.18 at 10:31 am

#11
I found 24 under $250k, use Ovlix you get days listed and price reductions

#141 Thank you on 09.11.18 at 10:45 am

I just wanted to thank the ‘Happy Housing Stabilization” and “Happy Housing Crash” people for their posts. Hilarious! Great stuff – please keep it coming.

#142 millmech on 09.11.18 at 10:51 am

#90 Mattl
Sorry, you will not be able to rent it out for that much as most homes in the valley rent for between $800-$1500 as the low wage keeps a cap on rent. Although you could get one of those high paying jobs in the winery that start at $12.65/hr, during the day. Work at Timmies for $14.55/hr at night and voila you are making $27.00/hr a good Okanagan wage.
That is how a lot of people make ends meet by working multiple jobs with no benefits. There is a reason why it is referred to as living in the Brokanagan.

#143 Duke on 09.11.18 at 10:59 am

#137 IHCTD9 on 09.11.18 at 10:01 am
#122 SimplyPut7 on 09.11.18 at 4:36 am

As much as Americans complain about how hard it is for young people to make it in the US, it’s still easier than trying to make it in Canada.
_______________

Outside the Urban areas, the kids seem to be doing fine as far as I can tell. They own houses, get married and have kids, couple decent vehicles and a toy or two in the garage. The kids I know almost all have working spouses, probably make 90-100K household incomes, and live in houses that cost under 300K. That adds up to a pretty comfortable existence no matter how you slice it.

A GTA couple would likely need at LEAST a 400K+ household income to lead a lifestyle similar to the kids described above.

—————————-

That’s exactly true. The quality of life is so much better in US than in Canada with similar level of household income. When there is a boom, there will be a crash, and it becomes reality in Canada.

#144 KLNR on 09.11.18 at 11:14 am

@#134 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 09.11.18 at 9:21 am
Happy Housing Stabilization Everyone! on 09.11.18 at 6:31 am
Filthy DOOMERS blaming missed real estate gains on Realtors. Dirty lying DOOMERS just jealous they watched a good opportunity sail by. Nothing worse than petty rotten DOOMERS. Jungle and Mattl dropping mics on you whiny DOOMERS.

Happy Housing Stabilization Everyone!
—————————————————————-

LOL you Dirty lying Scumbag SHYSTER. You can fool yourself if you want to but the financial pain will continue for you vermin SHYSTERS. You dirty SHYSTERS are suffering such financial pain that you try to sue your clients for sales you haven’t even completed. You useless SHYSTERS are so hated and that hate is growing in Canada. I read in the US SHYSTERS were assaulted when the masses woke up to their crimes of lies. Will that happen here in Canada? I just know I wouldn’t want to be a dirty, filthy, lying, useless, broke, high school drop out SHYSTSER.
___________________________

LOL, pot meet kettle.

#145 KLNR on 09.11.18 at 11:21 am

@#117 jane24 on 09.11.18 at 1:35 am
I remember going to the Okanagan to check out if we could make a living there with our young family as we were sick of the urban TO area. We have family there and the winters are very short. We found a series of lovely but definitely one-horse towns, no jobs other than seasonal and winter shut-downs in many places. Plus a sense of isolation from the rest of the world. Very Hotel California. No international airports. No culture just big toys on the lake in summer. Hard to escape.

So we didn’t move and stayed in south coast England. No way are these towns worth big RE money. There is very little there, other than my relatives of course.
______________________________
Okanagan is a big retirement hub.
Probably some good opportunity in nursing/healthcare

#146 232 on 09.11.18 at 11:35 am

#42 Trojan House on 09.10.18 at 7:01 pm
Leafs suck

——————————————————-

Go ahead and short it if you truly believe that.
“A fool and his money are soon parted”

#147 YourFutureAwaits on 09.11.18 at 11:44 am

Never lie to anyone in order to sell something.
Only elected officials/puppets have a free pass to lie.
When global debt-bubble 2.0 bursts and chaos ensues, you may need to lie for survival while the playbook of lawlessness reigns.

In the end, there’s nowhere to hide.
So true, once they gain control and microchip you

#148 Remembrancer on 09.11.18 at 11:47 am

#138 NoName on 09.11.18 at 10:01 am

2PTs are 6-10 people

#149 MF on 09.11.18 at 11:48 am

#143 Duke on 09.11.18 at 10:59 am

How was the quality of life in the US in 2008?

So tired of these morons complaining. So leave. Let in someone who wants to be here.

It’s like these guys think they are some superstar who is being hindered. Pro tip: If you are not successful it’s your fault, not the country’s. Here’s betting you will complain in the US in the same way. Remember occupy Wall Street?

MF

#150 Jim Brooks on 09.11.18 at 11:57 am

#122 SimplyPut7

“As much as Americans complain about how hard it is for”young people to make it in the US, it’s still easier than trying to make it in Canada. Just don’t get sick or get shot in the US and you will be fine.”

It’s easier until you get really sick and then you can join the crowd in the leading cause of US bankruptcy; medical bills…

https://www.apexedi.com/medical-bills-the-leading-cause-of-bankruptcy-in-the-united-states/

#151 Jim Brooks on 09.11.18 at 12:02 pm

#122 SimplyPut7

” if high school unemployment was only 4.6% in Canada, there would be many people who would delay going to college/university or not go at all.”

And do what for a living? Work at a fast food joint? What high paying jobs do these high school drop outs in the good ‘ol US of A have?

#152 Happy Housing Stabilization Everyone! on 09.11.18 at 12:07 pm

#134 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 09.11.18 at 9:21 am

LOL you Dirty lying Scumbag SHYSTER. You can fool yourself if you want to but the financial pain will continue for you vermin SHYSTERS. You dirty SHYSTERS are suffering such financial pain that you try to sue your clients for sales you haven’t even completed. You useless SHYSTERS are so hated and that hate is growing in Canada. I read in the US SHYSTERS were assaulted when the masses woke up to their crimes of lies. Will that happen here in Canada? I just know I wouldn’t want to be a dirty, filthy, lying, useless, broke, high school drop out SHYSTSER.

—————————————–

LMAO! You petty DOOMERS throwing temper tantrums because you haven’t made any wealth and blame it on the realtors. The world owes you nothing, you filthy lying DOOMERS. Just weh weh weh, trying to scare all the good people because you missed the bus. Lousy no good barking DOOMERS. DOOMERS are like little dogs, just yap yap yap. You were yapping ten years ago and prices continued up. You were yapping 20 years ago and prices continued up. Whiny DOOMERS and their tears.

Happy Housing Stabilization Everyone!

#153 James on 09.11.18 at 12:18 pm

#112 Smoking Man on 09.11.18 at 12:20 am

#66 Jim Brooks on 09.10.18 at 8:11 pm

3 Smoking Man on 09.10.18 at 9:47 am

“The American dream is back, white picket fences for all down the road.Lower taxes and Deregulation.
Been 100 years since the GDP was higher than the unemployment rate.Go long on the USA…
Nice Work President Trump..”

Guess the 63% of Americans who can’t afford a $1000 emergency hospital visit or a measly $500 emergency car repair didn’t get the memo on how good life in the US of A is….

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/63-of-americans-cant-afford-500-car-repair-or-1000-emergency-room-visit-300200097.html
……

The opportunities are here. If your an idiot or dimwit coward socialist that is terrified of a little risk, well poverty is your destiny.

We will not let you steal our labour credits with out a fight.

Risk = Success
Fear = Poverty.

And they thought Einsten had the best formula going.

I’m the Smoking Man and I know shit..
__________________________________________
Have to agree with you old man, you know shit!

OBTW: Einsten is spelled Einstein.

#154 Post on 09.11.18 at 12:19 pm

Cramer says to avoid both mutual funds and ETF’s

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/07/cramer-these-costly-funds-could-be-ripping-you-off.html

#155 James on 09.11.18 at 12:22 pm

#143 Duke on 09.11.18 at 10:59 am

#137 IHCTD9 on 09.11.18 at 10:01 am
#122 SimplyPut7 on 09.11.18 at 4:36 am

As much as Americans complain about how hard it is for young people to make it in the US, it’s still easier than trying to make it in Canada.
_______________

Outside the Urban areas, the kids seem to be doing fine as far as I can tell. They own houses, get married and have kids, couple decent vehicles and a toy or two in the garage. The kids I know almost all have working spouses, probably make 90-100K household incomes, and live in houses that cost under 300K. That adds up to a pretty comfortable existence no matter how you slice it.

A GTA couple would likely need at LEAST a 400K+ household income to lead a lifestyle similar to the kids described above.

—————————-

That’s exactly true. The quality of life is so much better in US than in Canada with similar level of household income. When there is a boom, there will be a crash, and it becomes reality in Canada.
_____________________________________________
Everything is relative to two major factors regarding Quality of life in the good old USA.
#1 Your Health and medical coverage terms!
#2 Location, location, location!

#156 James on 09.11.18 at 12:25 pm

#119 Smoking Man on 09.11.18 at 2:00 am

When a drunken nictonite makes a friend on earth.

https://youtu.be/uGZh6b-Fkxo
________________________________________
Really old man Rihanna?

#157 James on 09.11.18 at 12:32 pm

Most buys are now pre-con so, as mentioned here many times, this is akin to entering a futures contract. People plunk down money for an asset yet to exist, to be delivered on a future date at a set price. If the market advances, they make money – which is what 100% of buyers expect, allowing them to sell at a profit. If the market reverses, buyers are forced to close on a property worth less than they agreed to pay, for which they’ll probably be unable to secure financing. Crisis. It’s coming.
_________________________________________
I know one person in this situation and the shitty condo has been delayed one and a half years already. He kept saying look how much its gone up in that time. I said you haven’t even walked through the front door yet. It doesn’t exist, wheres your investment? The same guy mentioned to me a month ago that people are defaulting on this project already to get out as they anticipate a considerable loss on what they though was a golden goose. He is seriously worried about his investment. I told him not to buy a box in the sky, he didn’t care at the time and now he is sweating.

#158 Mattl on 09.11.18 at 12:46 pm

#142 millmech on 09.11.18 at 10:51 am
#90 Mattl
Sorry, you will not be able to rent it out for that much as most homes in the valley rent for between $800-$1500 as the low wage keeps a cap on rent. Although you could get one of those high paying jobs in the winery that start at $12.65/hr, during the day. Work at Timmies for $14.55/hr at night and voila you are making $27.00/hr a good Okanagan wage.
That is how a lot of people make ends meet by working multiple jobs with no benefits. There is a reason why it is referred to as living in the Brokanagan.

———————————————————-
Once again, I’m talking about Kelowna. The Okanagan as a whole is too large to generalize. You can get a house in Chase for 200K, or live on the lake in West Kelowna for 8MM…

Rents in Kelowna are around $1200 for a 1bdrm / basement suite, $1800 for a 2bdrm and $2500+ for a decent house. My friend rents a beater 3 bdrm on the main artery through Rutland for $2400. Upstairs 1200, downstairs 1200. Nice homes are 2500-3000. Rents in Kelowna are definitely expensive relative to local wages. There is no inventory – vacancy rates are some of the lowest in the country (0.2%) and the spec tax is killing development.

And I wouldn’t suggest that anyone gets a job at Timmies, anywhere, and thinks it will pay for anything. People that work for Timmies, or entry level service jobs anywhere are broke. And I’d never suggest anyone comes here to find easy employment, it is a service/tourism market. You want to find easy work try Surrey or Langley, lots of plants to work in for 18-25 an hour. Low income workers are broke everywhere, it may feel like a local phenomenon if you haven’t lived anywhere else.

#159 Ace Goodheart on 09.11.18 at 12:52 pm

Looks like Toronto could get a repeat of the Hurricane Hazel experience early next week if Florence takes the usual inverted semi colon track after destroying the Carolinas over the weekend.

Time to buy that sump pump for your often flooded downtown basement? Remember everything past Front Street (including all those new condos in the village that has sprung up next to the lake) used to be under water.

#160 T on 09.11.18 at 12:57 pm

#108 The Real Mark on 09.10.18 at 11:55 pm

Inflation has spent the past decade at less than 1.6%/annum well beneath the 2% target. So a few prints higher than 2% can easily be tolerated. Enormous deflationary forces are building especially with the collapse of Canadian RE, collapse of investment intentions in the oilpatch, and very little else to step in and fill in the void. Nearly every profession is in substantial oversupply now. Even newly minted doctors can’t find residency training spots. Inflation, good lord, in an economy pickled with debt, basically impossible aside from short-term transient excursions.

Next BoC move needs to be a cut. Poloz may very well have guaranteed him a systemic crisis by raising rates even as high as they’ve been raised. Should’ve stopped 50bp ago instead of letting things melt as bad as they have. The yield curve is screaming, DANGER, DANGER. This is an “general quarters all hands man your battle stations moment”, not time to be raising rates. The ship is sinking. The CAD$ may very well be weak because of the higher rates which are clearly sacrificing Canada’s economic output potential.

BTW, the theory that money just blindly and dumbly chases higher rates has been proven to be nonsense many times over.

———-

1. Inflation is now above the 2% target. We need to live in the now and not 2013.

2. I will bet you the BoC continues to raise rates over the next year as the real battle against inflation begins. I’m open to suggestions on possible wagers.

3. I didn’t say anything about blindly and dumbly chasing higher rates. You are so biased in your opinions you jump at the first opportunity to defend them. It’s amusing.

#161 IHCTD9 on 09.11.18 at 1:06 pm

If Trudeau is verbalizing this kind of stuff, it ain’t looking good.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/nafta-washington-auto-trudeau-freeland-1.4818446

Trudeau says he won’t sign a deal that isn’t in the best interests of Canada. What the Libs need to do is make a list of potential outcomes in order of best to worst similar to the following:

1. Deal is struck, we got everything we wanted.
2. Deal is struck, we had to make some concessions.
3. Deal is struck, but on Trumps terms.
4. No deal, Canada is out of NAFTA.

I think the Libs are dealing for #2, but will not accept #3, so if #2 fails, we drop right to #4. What’s in our best interest is probably too much for Trudeau’s ego to take.

I think we’re screwed, I wish Trudeau and his cast of airheads would have kept themselves off of Twitter and kept their big yappers shut. They could have made things a lot easier on themselves and us – on multiple fronts. You can actually see they are indeed starting to clam up (especially Freeland), but too little too late now.

So if it’s #4 – what’s plan B Trudeau?

How about giving China a good finger wagging about their human rights record and then try closing a big trade deal with them?

Or maybe haul the tickle trunk back to India for another shot?

How about a new deal with Saudi Arabia?

Maybe there are some other middle eastern dictatorships that will be receptive to a good lecture on their human rights abuses followed by a multi billion dollar international trade deal?

Plan B will be panic mode, Trudeau has already ****** up foreign relations with half planet. He can literally do nothing without eating a giant bowl of crow first – no matter what he wants to do. He just won’t be able to do that, the CBC will cover for him; and we all get to watch the bow slip under the waves.

#162 Blacksheep on 09.11.18 at 1:08 pm

Happy Housing Stabilization Everyone! # 124,

“Filthy DOOMERS blaming missed real estate gains on Realtors. Dirty lying DOOMERS just jealous they watched a good opportunity sail by. Nothing worse than petty rotten DOOMERS. Jungle and Mattl dropping mics on you whiny DOOMERS.”

“Happy Housing Stabilization Everyone!”
————————————–
Happy Housing Crash Everyone! # 134.

“LOL you Dirty lying Scumbag SHYSTER.”
————————————–
HHSE bates…and HHCE takes it.

Hilarious.

#163 IHCTD9 on 09.11.18 at 1:11 pm

#145 KLNR on 09.11.18 at 11:21 am

Okanagan is a big retirement hub.
Probably some good opportunity in nursing/healthcare.

___________

Also in light construction, renovations, landscaping, fence and deck building, property maintenance, and more.

A lot of these nicer small areas are filling with retired boomers who have cash. It’s probably the last economic hurrah for a few of these towns.

#164 n1tro on 09.11.18 at 2:06 pm

#161 IHCTD9 on 09.11.18 at 1:06 pm

Best insight to what’s going on I’ve read in quite a while. Kudos.

#165 MF on 09.11.18 at 2:18 pm

#137 IHCTD9 on 09.11.18 at 10:01 am

Same in the US. Remember occupy Wall Street? Sounds eerily similar to what you described with big education urban young people being “disillusioned” doesn’t it?

Go on any forum with Americans and you hear the same crap. New York is awful, LA is awful too expensive, too Liberal and so on.

MF

#166 Shawn Allen on 09.11.18 at 2:20 pm

You (Should Have) Seen The Enemy By Now

MF at 149 wisely said:

Pro tip: If you are not successful it’s your fault, not the country’s.

**********************************
That’s very true.

A long time ago I came up with a politically incorrect saying that indicates how to predict future success.

“Winners Win and Losers Lose.”

That is, Past Winners will most likely continue to win and succeed in future and past losers (and especially losers that whine a lot) will most likely continue to lose and not be very successful in future.

If you are not winning and succeeding, you may need to change your attitude first and then change your tactics.

#167 jess on 09.11.18 at 2:36 pm

New Study Confirms Offshore Earnings are Flowing into Stock Buybacks, Not Jobs and Investments

…” As predicted, those riches are flowing back into corporate coffers and to wealthy shareholders. A new study by the Federal Reserve found that the evidence so far suggests that the new repatriation tax break has resulted in a surge in stock buybacks and little discernable impact in investment by its biggest beneficiaries, just as critics predicted.”

FEDS Notes

September 04, 2018
U.S. Corporations’ Repatriation of Offshore Profits
https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/us-corporations-repatriation-of-offshore-profits-20180904.htm

https://itep.org/new-study-confirms-offshore-earnings-are-flowing-into-stock-buybacks-not-jobs-and-investments/

#168 James on 09.11.18 at 2:37 pm

#161 IHCTD9 on 09.11.18 at 1:06 pm

If Trudeau is verbalizing this kind of stuff, it ain’t looking good.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/nafta-washington-auto-trudeau-freeland-1.4818446

Trudeau says he won’t sign a deal that isn’t in the best interests of Canada. What the Libs need to do is make a list of potential outcomes in order of best to worst similar to the following:

1. Deal is struck, we got everything we wanted.
2. Deal is struck, we had to make some concessions.
3. Deal is struck, but on Trumps terms.
4. No deal, Canada is out of NAFTA.

I think the Libs are dealing for #2, but will not accept #3, so if #2 fails, we drop right to #4. What’s in our best interest is probably too much for Trudeau’s ego to take.

I think we’re screwed, I wish Trudeau and his cast of airheads would have kept themselves off of Twitter and kept their big yappers shut. They could have made things a lot easier on themselves and us – on multiple fronts. You can actually see they are indeed starting to clam up (especially Freeland), but too little too late now.

So if it’s #4 – what’s plan B Trudeau?

How about giving China a good finger wagging about their human rights record and then try closing a big trade deal with them?

Or maybe haul the tickle trunk back to India for another shot?

How about a new deal with Saudi Arabia?

Maybe there are some other middle eastern dictatorships that will be receptive to a good lecture on their human rights abuses followed by a multi billion dollar international trade deal?

Plan B will be panic mode, Trudeau has already ****** up foreign relations with half planet. He can literally do nothing without eating a giant bowl of crow first – no matter what he wants to do. He just won’t be able to do that, the CBC will cover for him; and we all get to watch the bow slip under the waves.
____________________________________________
Electing a part time teacher/ bouncer to run this country would be like the USA electing a crazy old man to run America. Oh shit were all F#$ked.

Trudeau had almost a decade of political experience prior to becoming PM. Trump had zero. – Garth

#169 The Real Mark on 09.11.18 at 2:52 pm

“1. Inflation is now above the 2% target. We need to live in the now and not 2013. “

True, but as I suggested, it was so far under the 2% target that a few quarters or years slightly above 2% is perfectly tolerable. Savers and those invested in fixed income were basically handed a windfall over the past decade with inflation running substantially beneath target. Largely at the expense of Canadian equities which have performed incredibly poorly since the 2008 apex. And even so, with the economy clearly slowing dramatically and deflationary forces gathering steam, the Bank of Canada needs to take a longer-term view. Significant inflation in an economy as pickled in debt as is Canada’s consumer economy is basically impossible. Its never happened anywhere in the world, ever. The Bank of Canada is fighting the wrong battle if they think that inflation is actually the enemy here.

#170 jess on 09.11.18 at 2:57 pm

WASHINGTON – Today, more than 50 national organizations sent a letter urging members of Congress to co-sponsor the No Tax Breaks for Outsourcing Act, which would overhaul the new international tax system put in place by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act to ensure that multinational corporations are no longer allowed to pay a lower tax rate on their offshore profits than they pay on their domestic profits.

The legislation is originally introduced by Representative Lloyd Doggett (D-TX) and Senator Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI).

As the letter explains, “This bill would provide a simple, straightforward fix to one of the most egregious problems created by the TCJA. It would level the playing field for small and wholly domestic businesses by eliminating the deep discount that multinational companies get for shifting profits offshore and outsourcing jobs.

“The Trump-GOP tax law continues to encourage corporations to shift enormous profits offshore and outsource good-paying American jobs. The No Tax Cuts for Outsourcing Act should allow us to recover hundreds of billions of dollars in corporate taxes owed on those profits, which can be invested to create good jobs at home,” said Frank Clemente, executive director, Americans for Tax Fairness.

“This bill ends the backward incentives created by the new tax law to move jobs, profits, and operations overseas. The simple fix — to even up the rates — levels the playing field for domestic companies and reverses some of the worst damage caused by the new law,” said Gary Kalman, executive director of the Financial Accountability and Corporate Transparency (FACT) Coalition.”…

https://www.commondreams.org/newswire/2018/05/24/more-50-organizations-urge-congress-end-tax-preference-shifting-jobs-and-profits

#171 jess on 09.11.18 at 3:02 pm

unholy alliance

Donald Trump’s nomination of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court is a gift to evangelical Christians. It was their ardent hope the president would pick a justice friendly to their cause that drove many evangelicals to vote for Trump in the first place. As Ed Stetzer, writing in Christianity Today, put it: “It’s the Supreme Court, stupid.” Stetzer’s piece was published in early 2017 after Trump nominated Neil Gorsuch to the position Republicans had blocked President Barack Obama from filling with his own nominee. Stetzer wrote, “Simply put, the Supreme Court is the reason that many Evangelicals voted for Trump.” By swallowing their moral standards and voting for a president who violates so many evangelical sensibilities, religious conservatives may achieve—if Kavanaugh is confirmed—a 5-4 hard-right majority on the court for decades.

Evangelical leader Franklin Graham (Billy Graham’s son) posted to his Facebook page a month before the 2016 election: “The most important issue of this election is the Supreme Court. That impacts everything.” Appearing critical of both major party presidential nominees, he added, “There’s no question, Trump and [Hillary] Clinton scandals might be news for the moment, but who they appoint to the Supreme Court will remake the fabric of our society for our children and our grandchildren, for generations to come.”

https://www.commondreams.org/views/2018/09/10/unholy-alliance-among-trump-kavanaugh-and-evangelicals

trump promised afterall have a listen
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/acts-of-faith/wp/2016/06/20/how-can-trump-win-the-many-undecided-evangelicals-we-asked-them/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.33c3e1cf02d4

#172 N on 09.11.18 at 3:25 pm

Waiting For A Toronto House Price Crash? You’ll Be ‘Disappointed,’ RBC Says

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2018/09/11/toronto-house-price-crash_a_23524006/

#173 KLNR on 09.11.18 at 3:55 pm

@#159 Ace Goodheart on 09.11.18 at 12:52 pm
Looks like Toronto could get a repeat of the Hurricane Hazel experience early next week if Florence takes the usual inverted semi colon track after destroying the Carolinas over the weekend.

Time to buy that sump pump for your often flooded downtown basement? Remember everything past Front Street (including all those new condos in the village that has sprung up next to the lake) used to be under water.
_____________________

Everyone in TO (old or new build) should have a sump and backflow valve. the gov will pay for most of it.
with climate change we’re going to see more extreme weather.

#174 KLNR on 09.11.18 at 4:00 pm

@#171 jess on 09.11.18 at 3:02 pm
unholy alliance

Donald Trump’s nomination of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court is a gift to evangelical Christians. It was their ardent hope the president would pick a justice friendly to their cause that drove many evangelicals to vote for Trump in the first place. As Ed Stetzer, writing in Christianity Today, put it: “It’s the Supreme Court, stupid.” Stetzer’s piece was published in early 2017 after Trump nominated Neil Gorsuch to the position Republicans had blocked President Barack Obama from filling with his own nominee. Stetzer wrote, “Simply put, the Supreme Court is the reason that many Evangelicals voted for Trump.” By swallowing their moral standards and voting for a president who violates so many evangelical sensibilities, religious conservatives may achieve—if Kavanaugh is confirmed—a 5-4 hard-right majority on the court for decades.
____________________

wifes uncle moved to illinois and married into an evangelical family. Those folks are a special kind of crazy.

#175 Andrea Sargeant on 09.12.18 at 2:00 am

Garth, “who” is responsible for correctly monitoring and reporting these statistics for Canadians? Why aren’t we able to get reliable numbers? Isn’t in the best interest, pardon the pun, for Canadians?

#176 B Wilds on 09.12.18 at 8:06 am

In America, the government, coupled with a slew of builder and Realtor associations control the housing narrative. Huge discrepancies exist in the cost of housing in the various markets across America and while price variations are not uncommon they should be seen as a reason for caution. The future of the housing market is a topic that has been subject to a great deal of debate and can be somewhat confusing. The intention of the post below is to shed light on some of the myths that have been generated and add some clarity to the discussion of where housing policies are taking us.