Market update

  “Get some popcorn,” says long-time Toronto house slinger Alex Prikhodko, “and watch the bloodbath this winter. It’s gonna be ugly – WAY worse than what you are expecting.”

Well, that got my attention. Even though the now-spanked Toronto real estate cartel has yet to release August stats, the tale from the rest of the country is ugly. And, if the sold listings displayed below are any indication, the might GTA market is also circling the bowl.

First, check out the carnage in BC, where just two years ago real estate was making everyone horny, indebted and feeling rich. Now just the debt part remains.

In Vancouver monthly sales didn’t even crack the 2,000 mark – tumbling 36.6% below a dismal August in 2017, and sitting 25% below the ten-year average. But that’s just the start. The number of properties listed is swelling as sales are contracting – up 34% from last summer. And, ugh, the sales-to-listings ratio for detached houses – once the object of everyone’s unbridled desire – is a lowly 9.2%. That means 91% didn’t sell, and won’t for a long time.

“With fewer buyers active in the market, benchmark prices across all three housing categories have declined for two consecutive months across the region,” says the head realtor. Detached prices are down 3% – the start of something much larger – while condo sales have crashed but prices are up 10%. The greater fool theory is on display. Poor kids.

And Victoria? Pffft. Nine consecutive months of sales declines now. Listings have plateaued, prices have flatlined and buyers have taken the ferry home. Stick a fork in it. As YVR wobbles, this place will be in for a serious correction.

And what about the hinterland? Yikes. Sales are back down to 1980s levels in the Fraser Valley, according to realtor Bill Coughlin, who estimates there’s been a 58% drop in activity in the last three years – a direct challenge to the official industry story.

Calgary? A disaster. Sales crashed 35% last month while active listings jumped 21%. The average price is now 10% lower than a year ago, which already sucked compared to five years before that. It no longer matters what happens to oil, pipelines or the crazy swings of provincial politics, Cowtown’s best-before date has come and gone in terms of residential real estate. Good luck trying to get out of a Cowboy McMansion without eating a lot of your equity.

But there’s more. The GTA market is not immune. Broker Prikhodko says it’s all about to hit the fan, with industry rumours at least one major bank is bracing for a real estate recession while a major high-profile builder teeters on the edge of bankruptcy. Scores of buyers are apparently walking away from their signed contracts.

“I would like to point out that up to this moment, the ‘correction’ has been purely psychological. Starting about now, the real economic factors (*cough* underwater debt) are starting to kick in,” he says. “Meat grinder has started, so far lips and ass are getting minced, with t-bone steak coming soon. People are in DIRE situations, with builder closings coming up and unable to sell even at massive discounts (and let’s not forget the mortgage renewals). I’m guessing this is what happens when you live in a city that approximates a casino at a mental clinic with a bank financing the Russian Roulette.”

Well, enough hyperbole. We want proof.

“I wish I could get credit for finding these,” he says of the three listings below, “but it was one of my realtors, who used to be one of the ‘Toronto is the next New York’ people and now is expecting a MAJOR correction.”

So, here are three urban sales, giving you a taste of what’s actually happening in the marketplace. It’s ugly, tough and bitter for sellers. It’s becoming a romp for buyers brave enough to reach for a falling knife. Let’s see how the local real estate cartel spins the numbers when they report tomorrow.

Brand new, 2017-built ‘executive’ town house in Scarborough sold for 27% below list. Pity the sucker who bought that one from the builder’s plans.

 

Well, so much for that great idea of buying a vacant lot in a hot market and flipping it for big bucks.  After 85 tortuous days on the market, this east-end piece of dirt sank 44%.

 

Monster home being built in Mississauga turned into a monster mess for this family. They walked away with $1 million less than they wanted.

 

182 comments ↓

#1 Jungle on 09.05.18 at 6:01 pm

THE BOC has no intention on aggressively hiking interest rates, nor are they overly concerned with headline inflation at 3%. Also, the days of “normal or high rates” are looking less and less likely. Think technology and globalization impact.

If you were expecting interest rates to crash the GTA housing market, you are likely to be disappointed. Demand, wealth , job creation is very strong in the GTA -There is literally no sign of collapse happening in the housing market. It might even grow. What’s incredible , is that even as we absorb a stress test, the market has show strength to overcome. Not crash.

Read the BOC press today and understand the wording. This is a trend starting. With 2-3 more hikes expected over the next year, then slowing economic growth by 2020 . Economist even calling for The FED to cut rate in 2020. And interest rates will still be at very low levels.

In the mean time, the growing economy, wage growth and employment will easily handle it.

Tomorrow TREB reports and I’ll spoil it for the bears: NO housing crash in the GTA!!

#2 I like it! on 09.05.18 at 6:06 pm

Let the bloodbath begin! I won’t shed on tear for the whole bunch of greedy sellers out there. Party is over folks, the fat lady is singing loud and clear!

#3 Suede on 09.05.18 at 6:08 pm

Damn.

Been there. Will never buy a pre-sale again.

This current crop will learn too. Unfortunately, the hard way. Like the rest of the herd that bought the last 4 years.

Herdonomics.

#4 Rod on 09.05.18 at 6:13 pm

Buy what you can afford..simple as that

#5 Question garth... on 09.05.18 at 6:22 pm

So why the (bleep) is my apartment company hiking rents for their apartments?

When I first rented back in 2009, my monthly lease was $900 (with rent hikes my last monthly rent was $1,169.85). Once I moved from there, my new tenants have to pay $1,600 + utilities for that same sh***y one bedroom.
Explain why?!

#6 Simon on 09.05.18 at 6:26 pm

The Homestead property sold for $950,000 in 2013.

#7 Aging in yvr on 09.05.18 at 6:28 pm

I can attest to the falling prices in my little east side yvr neighbourhood. After watching listings in our 100 unit townhome development rise ever higher in the last four years, with listings selling on the first weekend usually after a bidding war, change came in the last few weeks.
There are currently three listings that have been languishing and now all have dropped their prices. No big drops, but still, things have definitely changed. No line up of cars at the very quiet open houses. It’s happening … we used to get cards and gifts in the mailbox from realtors begging us to sell (to their clients who lost out on bidding wars), but nothing any more.

#8 k on 09.05.18 at 6:30 pm

NOT first ! Had to do it just once

#9 Dave on 09.05.18 at 6:30 pm

Hopefully there will be a day when we can buy a decent home for less then 7 figures in Vancouver. BOC interest bumps will make the difference in the world.

#10 Jungle on 09.05.18 at 6:33 pm

Gta examples does not represent the broad market. There’s always going to be some
Foreclosure or estate / bankrupt/ divorce sale –

How about the 500+ detached sold last month that posted an average on zolo for 1.3m?

Inventory was 3.5 months- for those who don’t know that means very stable

Do we need to show condos?

#11 dutch4505 on 09.05.18 at 6:37 pm

Reminds me of the correction we had on the USA side just south of Vancouver BC. (2006 to 2015) What I remember is that when you think it can’t get worse….well it does.

#12 Lufkin on 09.05.18 at 6:38 pm

At those prices, I’m in the mood to choke the old chicken

#13 Dave on 09.05.18 at 6:40 pm

What about the Okanagan, there was a major shift in people selling in Vancouver and retiring in Kelowna?

#14 Island Car Dude on 09.05.18 at 6:41 pm

Comox Valley has crapped out. One website that I follow shows “Price Reduced” on fully one third of homes for sale. Asking price cuts average around 4% after 30 days on the market and drops of 5-7% with more shopworn properties. High end trophy homes are cutting by 10-22%.

No further comment needed.

#15 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 09.05.18 at 6:41 pm

Half of B.C. workers are living paycheque to paycheque, according to the results of a new survey.
The Canadian Payroll Association poll suggests half live payday to payday, and one quarter would be unable to come up with $2,000 in an emergency.The survey also found about 70 per cent save 10 per cent or less of their earnings.
But the cash crunch isn’t just a B.C. phenomenon. Across Canada, 44 per cent of workers say they would have trouble meeting financial obligations if their pay were delayed by just one week.Canadians “continue to have high debt levels, chronically undersave for retirement, and put themselves at severe risk in the event of economic changes,” the CPA said.
The survey polled 5,074 employees from June 22 to Aug. 1.

#16 Steve on 09.05.18 at 6:43 pm

How long before this mess spills into the rest of the economy?
I need a good used car at a big discount

#17 Ex-Cowtown on 09.05.18 at 6:44 pm

Tomorrow TREB reports and I’ll spoil it for the bears: NO housing crash in the GTA!!

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Data about as reliable as CNN’s anonymous sources……

#18 young & foolish on 09.05.18 at 6:45 pm

Ouch … I am seeing many sale signs in my neighbourhood (downtown Toronto) fading from sun exposure.

Crickets …..

#19 SoggyShorts on 09.05.18 at 6:46 pm

Stan Brooks

Inflation is not at 8-10%, that would be a doubling rate of about 7 years, and it’s simply not possible in the future, nor did it happen in the past.

Imagine if it was true.
Going forwards, do you really think that on average everything will be 10 times more expensive in 25 years?
Think about actual examples:
A new truck $400,000
A 3BDR 2BTH house in Calgary $4,000,000
A 55″ TV $13,000
A 2L coke $20
[email protected] $13 per liter
Can of soup $10

How about going backwards? In the mid-late ninties I don’t remember these prices:
A new truck $4,000
A 3BDR 2BTH house in Calgary $40,000
A 55″ TV $130
A 2L coke 20¢
[email protected] 13¢ per liter
Can of soup 10¢

Look at actual items people buy.
Compare the same item from 2011, did it cost 50% less? Will it cost 100% more in 2025?
Look at housing outside the GTA/LM.
For the second year in a row I negotiated my rent down by 10%

Other things to consider:
Gas prices go up, but so does the fuel effeciency of cars.
Electricity goes up, but our tech improves efficiency there as well.

#20 Victoria - Its Different on 09.05.18 at 6:46 pm

Sales in Victoria have been ‘falling’ for the past 3 years while prices in the Victoria and the surrounding communities have gone up 30-40%.

Prices in communities surrounding Victoria continue to be up above 2017 prices, and have actually surged forward during post B20 implementation phase (from May on once the pre-approvals were expired).

The Multiple Listing Service® Home Price Index benchmark value for a single family home in the Victoria Core in August 2017 was $830,800, while the benchmark value for the same home in August 2018 increased by 6.9 per cent to $888,300, slightly lower than July’s value of $888,700. The MLS® HPI benchmark value for a condominium in the Victoria Core area in August 2017 was $453,900, while the benchmark value for the same condominium in August 2018 increased by 10.8 per cent to $503,000, slightly lower than July’s value of $507,700.

Sorry, but the whole ‘sales declininig leading to price declines’ have not materialized yet despite years of slowing growth.

#21 TheDood on 09.05.18 at 6:46 pm

#1 Jungle on 09.05.18 at 6:01 pm

….If you were expecting interest rates to crash the GTA housing market, you are likely to be disappointed. Demand, wealth , job creation is very strong in the GTA -There is literally no sign of collapse happening in the housing market.

….Tomorrow TREB reports and I’ll spoil it for the bears: NO housing crash in the GTA!!
_________________________

Yup! OK. Stick your head back in the sand – and take real deep breath.

#22 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.05.18 at 6:48 pm

@#1 Jungle The Realtor
“Tomorrow TREB reports and I’ll spoil it for the bears: NO housing crash in the GTA!!”

++++

Ahahahahahahahahahahaha.

Ladies and Gentlemen.
Living Proof Realtors believe their own Bull$h!t

#23 Prairieboy43 on 09.05.18 at 6:52 pm

Average home price Edmonton 2018 – $370,000.00. Edmonton 2017- $400,000.00. $ Edmonton 2016- $413,000.00. Edmonton 2015- $420,000.00. (Edmonton 2007- $420,000.00). Down she goes…….

#24 bb on 09.05.18 at 6:53 pm

Checked out the Missisauga home (Housesigma.com). Turned out to be a 1.75M financial windfall for the seller as it was bought at 851k last 2016.

https://housesigma.com/site/listing/0ZxwR7MV5jz3KabB

As land. – Garth

#25 Rod on 09.05.18 at 6:54 pm

Buy what you can afford..and not regret

#26 Zapstrap on 09.05.18 at 6:57 pm

How bout a few new “Death Watches”? Seems timely … Can’t believe the house behind me just sold … they’re gonna be sorry … painting inside and new carpet going down as I type. New Asian neighbours … hope they are as nice as my Asian friends I already have …

#27 Jungle on 09.05.18 at 6:58 pm

Rents are on track to climb another 10% ish this year in the Gta, next year likely the same as intense pressure
Continues on very low vacancy rate and landlords use bnb instead of long term lease. Private investment does not want to build rental purpose buildings due too poor cap rate, high building and permit cost, and worse of all Ontario unfair housing plan .

Over the last 5 years, rents have surged 50% while income did not?

Immagrants are literally poring into this country and business investment continues in the Gta meaning this is where all the jobs are.

See where this is going?

#28 Vancouver Down on 09.05.18 at 7:01 pm

For July, it shows that prices for detached homes on Vancouver’s west side have fallen 26 per cent in a year, dropping by just under $1 million in price, from $3.8 million to $2.8 million. In West Vancouver, detached home prices have fallen over 30 per cent or $1.1 million, from $3.6 million in December 2017 to $2.5 million in July.

What is a Lotto 649 loss these days. No problem.

#29 Brian Ripley on 09.05.18 at 7:01 pm

“…up to this moment, the ‘correction’ has been purely psychological” Broker Prikhodko

I have my Calgary and Vancouver charts up now:
http://www.chpc.biz/

Vancouver sales are clearly exhausted.

Calgary buyers are still making bets in the face of both the long term sales and energy drain. Stubborn psychology I guess.

#30 Freebird on 09.05.18 at 7:02 pm

Any news on what’s happening north east of GTA like Ajax, Whitby, Peterborough, etc? Looking through the glossy listings last weekend and most left me thinking have they their minds? Maybe retirees miving north (trying) to get more for the money? Rumors are yet more big new developments are planned. Whose buying them I dont know. Not sure if new 407 ext to 115 is factor.

#31 Ca$h Money on 09.05.18 at 7:02 pm

Anyone who is bearish on interest rates needs to think about the level of public and private debt growth happening across the world. The U.S is piling a trillion a year now and will need to keep issuing bonds to cover this. The Fed can’t keep printing money forever or else inflation will get out of control.

We are going to get to a point when the Fed will no longer be able to resist and rates will go up. You can’t keep borrowing at these levels and printing money and not expect rapid inflation at some point; regardless of technological advancement.

#32 Dolce Vita on 09.05.18 at 7:02 pm

Had the presence of mind, 3 months ago to remind myself this Sept. 9th on Google Calendar of a Comment that I made then. My reminder was this:

“Canada Pooched 3 mo later.”

I said the RE crash in prices would begin in earnest right about now. I also said that if history repeats, RE crashes come hand in hand with a recession.

To which GARTH, YOU REPLIED:

“Wanna bet.”

Seems a major bank and some very alarmed and experienced RE industry people agree with me now.

Well Garth, time to PAY THE PIPER.

– – – – – – – – – – – – – – –

PS: Thank you for the honesty today that you will NOT find in the Cdn., bury your head in sand, MSM (they too must own properties as “RE investors”).

If I am correct and so far, so good, those 25% drops…just the beginning (3 months ago that number was a part of my price drops beginning in earnest Comment and many before that).

35%-50% by next Spring (I’m sensing a Garth “Wanna bet” thought percolating, yet again).

PRAY CRAZY MAN S. OF THE BORDER does not hate our PM enough to tariff auto.

If that happens, LAST PERSON out of 416 Land:

Don’t forget to turn the lights off.

Ya, I know, I stole that from Calgary in the early 80’s…I’m allowed, I was there then and almost a part of the carnage…I broke even (carnage to me, only place I never made money on).

I have faith in greed, avarice, human nature, history repeating and reading the writing on the wall well in advance (head not in sand).

— — — — —

PS, PS: Cannot wait for HHCE! with the written word rape, pillage and plunder the poor RE industry and their personnel and Lord knows what else.

#33 NO SUCH THING AS CHEAP DEBT on 09.05.18 at 7:02 pm

Jungle – you must be a realtor.

I live in Montreal, and I hear stories of people up to their eyeballs in debt, and how the past interest rate hikes are hitting people hard.

Salaries are not rising as you claim they are, yet debt is. People are underwater and it’s just a matter of time. Quit hyping a market that is on the way out. Im guessing you have money in this real estate game or are an agent, sorry you are caught on the wrong side of what was once a sure bet.

#34 HoweStreet.com on 09.05.18 at 7:03 pm

Ross Kay on HoweStreet.com Radio:
Vancouver – Is a 65% House Price Correction Possible?
Millennial home buyers make it happen with a plan.

https://www.howestreet.com/2018/09/04/vancouver-is-a-65-house-price-correction-possible/

#35 Alessio on 09.05.18 at 7:03 pm

All the homes in Vaughan sold close to asking or much more! You cherry picked a monster mansion. Some dirt on side road. And a town house in a bad rough Scarborough location. No one wants these even in booming times. And I’m a housing bear btw.

#36 Drew on 09.05.18 at 7:05 pm

#5 Question garth… on 09.05.18 at 6:22 pm

It’s probably demand, since nobody can buy, and still want to stay in Toronto, they rent. I think rents are only required to decrease if property tax is reduced and when’s the last time that happened?

I have a similar situation: crappy bachelor was $975 in 2010 and in Dec will be $1070. New tenants would have to pay $1300

#37 waiting on the westcoast on 09.05.18 at 7:10 pm

5 Question garth… on 09.05.18 at 6:22 pm says… “So why the (bleep) is my apartment company hiking rents for their apartments? When I first rented back in 2009, my monthly lease was $900 (with rent hikes my last monthly rent was $1,169.85). Once I moved from there, my new tenants have to pay $1,600 + utilities for that same sh***y one bedroom. Explain why?!”

The push in prices have increased demand for rentals and landlords atw getting to pass more expensive interest costs into renters.

During the GFC in the US, rents went up significantly while housing prices declined due to higher interest rates and fear of owning in a falling market.

#38 I’m stupid on 09.05.18 at 7:10 pm

Is the builder Brad Lamb?

#39 Crdt on 09.05.18 at 7:12 pm

Fraser Valley is very different then it was last summer… The are two places where there are 3 houses in a row for sale with no immediate sold stickers on them. There is one with a very cute agent’s pretty face on it for more then 3 months. Wonder if buyers are seeing the availability as a red or green light. Way later then I thought but it had arrived.. hold on to your butts..

#40 1% Prepper on 09.05.18 at 7:12 pm

#1 & #10

I think jungle is having a slow day at the Remax office.

#41 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.05.18 at 7:13 pm

@#10 Jungle the REALTOR
“Gta examples does not represent the broad market…..”
+++++

Bwahahahahaha.
Ladies and Gentlemen see the Realtor try and swallow his own BS!

Reality vs Realtors.
Also known as
Truth or Consequences.

Quite a conundrum

#42 jess on 09.05.18 at 7:14 pm

company’s own words: “Amazon dealers are independent companies and responsible for fulfilling their tax obligations.”

https://www.theverge.com/2018/9/4/17796118/amazon-ebay-chinese-sellers-tax-fraud-haven

==========

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA) have introduced a bill that would tax companies like Amazon and Walmart for the cost of employees’ food stamps and other public assistance. Sanders’ Stop Bad Employers by Zeroing Out Subsidies Act (abbreviated “Stop BEZOS”) — along with Khanna’s House of Representatives counterpart, the Corporate Responsibility and Taxpayer Protection Act — would institute a 100 percent tax on government benefits that are granted to workers at large companies.

The bill’s text characterizes this as a “corporate welfare tax,” and it would apply to corporations with 500 or more employees. If workers are receiving government aid through the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP, formerly known as food stamps), national school lunch and breakfast programs, Section 8 housing subsidies, or Medicaid, employers will be taxed for the total cost of those benefits. The bill applies to full-time and part-time employees, as well as independent contractors that are de facto company employees.

#43 arfmoocat on 09.05.18 at 7:24 pm

Let the romp begin !!

#44 Aristicus on 09.05.18 at 7:24 pm

Looking for recommended documentaries on the roaring 20’s and The Great Depression of the 30’s.

Any suggestions???

#45 Reality Bites on 09.05.18 at 7:30 pm

You should have rented instead.

#46 WelcometoSlurrey on 09.05.18 at 7:31 pm

Question regarding US Stocks in non registered accounts. Is it better to buy the US stocks in US currency , or buy with Canadian Currency ?……… If I can find the equivalent company on the Canadian markets I buy those, but if I can’t which currency do you hold them in ? Does it make a difference.

#47 BS on 09.05.18 at 7:32 pm

10 Jungle on 09.05.18 at 6:33 pm

Gta examples does not represent the broad market. There’s always going to be some
Foreclosure or estate / bankrupt/ divorce sale –

And those sale prices set the price for all future sales. Nobody will pay a dime more. In fact when the trend is down (like now) buyers want a lower price than the last sale. The next sale will be lucky to get any of those prices.

#48 Benny Tal on 09.05.18 at 7:36 pm

Our friend Benny used the word “recession” multiple times on Bloomberg today and predicts rates cuts by 2020.

Well, Benny, that means a recession will have hit Canada by then if what you say materializes.

I couldn’t make out the last bit of the interview: something about Vancouver, Victoria and Kelowna, BC seeing the greatest price drops in the Western World of our time?

#49 The Great Gazoo on 09.05.18 at 7:39 pm

Many people I know don’t believe real estate can go down in the GTA in any meaningful way. This is going to be an interesting winter and will be an eye opener for them.

#50 Lefty on 09.05.18 at 7:41 pm

West Vancouver nightmare. Sent to me by a third party.

http://cdn.ceo.ca.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/1dp0krg-80ADB011-93A5-4258-944B-F3351FD4415F.jpeg

#51 Hans on 09.05.18 at 7:43 pm

Just to keep things honest….

“Broker Prikhodko says it’s all about to hit the fan, with industry rumours at least one major bank is bracing for a real estate recession while a major high-profile builder teeters on the edge of bankruptcy. Scores of buyers are apparently walking away from their signed contracts.”

Prikhodko seems to have an amazing crystal ball. Where would I be able to buy one? I’m no hurrah man, but your go-to guy seems to be cherry picking some interesting sales….
89 Heron Park – who cares what the asking price is compares to the sale price. I could ask for your first born and the last bag of doggy kibble, it doesn’t make a lick of difference to the market. What are comparable sales, or perhaps more interestingly, what did they buy for? Maybe they tried to reach a bridge too far?
113 Homestead – it’s a power of sale, no kidding the sale comes in under the ask. Add to that, it’s a lot in Scarborough. I should also point out, Lawrence and Morningside is NOT a developers or speculators location. When you hear politicians talking about wearing a bullet proof vest….this is the area they are talking about. I’m sure one drive through the area would limit the willing buyers regardless of market conditions.
2617 Fifth Line – no one has ever claimed that sellers are calm and rationale. When I see something sold $1 mill less than ask, I have to ask myself, was the price they wanted remotely close to what the market would bare?

Rumours and hyperbole play both ways. As an industry insider/expert Prikhodko should have more to back up his claims beyond maybe bankrupcies and oh no, a bank preparing for a recession? Hahaha. What does that look like on the balance sheet? You know, the one that analysts pick through every 3 months, or are there more rumours to support his rumours, or maybe a listing that sold beside train tracks, where 3 people disappeared and is missing a foundation?

#52 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 09.05.18 at 7:43 pm

#13 Dave on 09.05.18 at 6:40 pm
What about the Okanagan, there was a major shift in people selling in Vancouver and retiring in Kelowna?
…………………………………

That has been happening for years now. People cash in from the Big Smokes and come to the Brokanagan…..Price reductions in Kelowna don’t tell the whole story. People buy for a million, list for two million when selling, then reduce to 1.5 to get more real. Price reductions don’t always reflect the “ photo grande “. I think not a lot of pain being felt yet.

#53 Danny on 09.05.18 at 7:43 pm

Yes…most people need to see the t-bone steak as you said.

Maybe when we know who is “a major high-profile builder teeters on the edge of bankruptcy” that will sound the alarms especially in the heads of those thousands of speculators who bought the “before built ”

But such a failure needs to be in the press for more than a day to sink into the speculators heads who need to be hit with a 2 by 4…….those greater fools who don’t believe the honey is running out.

There always needs to be a big fish…..that struggles…….before the little fish open their eyes.

Now today is the mother of all blogs.

Isn’t it great when this blog……..stays away from trying to figure out and not predict the outcome of Pathetic Trump’s….pea size real estate brain’s……threats about NAFTA or anything else that fool mutters about.

As to Etobicoke….still not seeing condo prices dropping.

Maybe we need to see that big fish….flopping first before the thousands of before built condo owners of units in those towers under construction see their poor speculation dwindle before they walk away.

I am sure if buyers are walking from those at least dozen towers……here…..the builders will not be talking.

It will probably be at least a year away when some of these towers are completed…..that the extent of those walking will be noticeable…..because the units are going to be resold by the builder….like Tridel.

One sure thing about developers…”.they never open their mouths…or flies will get in.”……. as has been said for many years by the Mafia in the hills of Calabria

#54 Dolce Vita on 09.05.18 at 7:48 pm

#44 Aristicus

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ccNilnpvbJg

PBS on YouTube, very vintage.

Better for my tastes by a good story teller Ken Burns, at PBS, if you have the time, 1st of 7:

https://www.pbslearningmedia.org/resource/great-depression-ken-burns-dust-bowl/great-depression-ken-burns-dust-bowl

Watched both series.

Hard to wrap ones mind around THAT actually happened.

#55 dakkie on 09.05.18 at 7:50 pm

50 US Metro Housing Areas See Double-Digit-% YoY Inventory Increase

http://www.investmentwatchblog.com/50-us-metro-housing-areas-see-double-digit-yoy-inventory-increase/

#56 CJohnC on 09.05.18 at 7:53 pm

#44 Aristicus
Try researching the Internet Archive. https://archive.org
archive contains:

279 billion web pages
11 million books and texts
4 million audio recordings (including 160,000 live concerts)
3 million videos (including 1 million Television News programs)
1 million images
100,000 software programs

#57 Lefty on 09.05.18 at 7:53 pm

Re: West Vancouver nightmare.

(Garth, here is the link to that article I posted. Just delete the prior post.)

http://cdn.ceo.ca/1dp0krg-80ADB011-93A5-4258-944B-F3351FD4415F.jpeg

#58 Debtslavecreator on 09.05.18 at 7:54 pm

High end of GTVA and GTA could see some more severe selling as the Chinese CRA starts seizing high end RE here now that they are sharing tax info
Banks in AUS and NZ have started freezing bank accounts
12 months out you will likely see a surge in POS sales as the Chinese go after the untaxed wealth that flowed in
A real black swan for high end RE
Hopefully the FED raises again later this month

#59 AGuyInVancouver on 09.05.18 at 7:57 pm

#1 Jungle on 09.05.18 at 6:01 pm
THE BOC has no intention on aggressively hiking interest rates, nor are they overly concerned with headline inflation at 3%. Also, the days of “normal or high rates” are looking less and less likely. Think technology and globalization impact.

If you were expecting interest rates to crash the GTA housing market, you are likely to be disappointed. Demand, wealth , job creation is very strong in the GTA -There is literally no sign of collapse happening in the housing market. It might even grow. What’s incredible , is that even as we absorb a stress test, the market has show strength to overcome. Not crash….
_ _ _
You are one seriously delusional realtor.

On another note, no surprise to see Poloz the Timid punt once again on interest rates. The worst BoC governor in years.

#60 Fish on 09.05.18 at 8:01 pm

You Don’t actually need 3 guys to move Table, I could possibly to it solo with a wheelbarrow, but then again at my tender age of Mr Wrinkle, Please remember your easy exercise workout and that would bring some country to you

#61 raisemyrent on 09.05.18 at 8:05 pm

FWIW people in Vancouver with skin in the game (most blue collar workers) are indeed blaming the NDP. Many cite the past NDP government and all the damage it left behind. No one talks about the credit crunch. The flabbergasting inference is that things before we’re just as they should be, and our market should continue to go up for ever. Construction is in for one mother of a crisis.

#62 arfmoocat on 09.05.18 at 8:05 pm

#52 FOUR FINGERS WATSON

The parties over in the Smokanagon

All the Albertan’s are selling their summer homes to avoid the speculation tax

They’re tired of the smoke every summer anyways

#63 Nonplused on 09.05.18 at 8:09 pm

Maybe this “house” will be the symbol of the “top” in Calgary rather than the usual latest tallest high rise:

https://calgary.ctvnews.ca/massive-multi-million-dollar-family-home-rising-west-of-calgary-1.1842534

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YxFzd5hjALk

I drove by it just the other week and it seems to be at or nearing completion. It is a horrid and grotesque structure that sticks out like a sore thumb right on the side of the highway in an area that is dominated by hay fields and a reservation. It looks like a hotel. But no, it’s a single family house. And guess who built it? The owners of Jager Homes. Real estate must have been good to them and they thought the party would never end.

And it speaks to a huge lack of taste and discretion, not to mention a complete disregard for person safety. If you are going to build a eyesore like this why not put it away from traffic down a valley and in the trees, so nobody knows it’s there? Instead it is right on the highway in the middle of a hay field. When the economic collapse comes, it’ll be the first place looted. I can’t believe they even got a building permit. What was the county thinking?

—————–

What is it with Nike and disgraced sports celebrities? I mean first the stayed on with Tiger Woods after the affair scandal, but I thought he was going to bounce back from that anyway because everyone kind of expects that billionaires sleep with whoever they want and there is a long line of groupies trying to get past security in every place they visit. Tiger was like a rock star. The only way Erin could have kept him chaste would have been to travel with him and keep an eye on things. But still, it was a sad day for sports fans to come to terms with human nature, and particularly the human nature of this idol.

But now they are on to Kaepernick. I think this is the most cynical and yet brilliant add campaign ever. I mean here they are operating child labor sweat factories in third world countries, but yet paying a guy who supposedly was protesting the living conditions of many black Americans. Why not move a factory to Detroit? They could use the jobs.

But no, the campaign is far more sinister and evil-genius than that. Here is a guy who has the attention of the President’s twitter feed! Sure, 46% of Americans are currently burning their Nike apparel, but Nike has now found a very low cost way to appeal to the other 54% who hate Trump. Brilliant. Evil, but brilliant.

I think it’s going to work. Nike has just created a bunch of free publicity with this stunt, and they are going to capture 54% of the market exclusively. There won’t be any liberal leftards buying Puma after this.

And all over a has-been millionaire pro-sports player that didn’t really do anything to help the poor, but has found a new way to enrich himself.

———————

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-09-05/nyt-publishes-anonymous-op-ed-saboteur-inside-trump-white-house

This is an obvious hit piece. I am sure that there are saboteurs inside the White House, but what could they possibly gain from making their presence known? The only possible explanations could be to take down Trump, or just reassure the populace that the “deep state” has their back, no matter what and everything will be fine.

Or of course it could be a complete fabrication to extract this response:

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-09-05/trump-orders-nytimes-reveal-op-ed-source-national-security-purposes

———————-

Elon Musk has gone off the rails. If you won TESLA, get out.

———————-

I think this guy is a psychopath but it’s important to understand them if you have to live with them:

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-09-04/meet-economist-behind-one-percents-stealth-takeover-America

I personally don’t believe that all humans are out only for themselves. But there is some truth to the concept that you must put your own air mask on first before helping others when the cabin pressure drops.

Remember, when the Titanic went down, they put the women and children in the life boats first. That’s because the men didn’t think it was actually going to sink.

Socialism is just another way to steal your neighbor’s bike. Plain and simple. But the alternatives aren’t great either.

#64 Jungle on 09.05.18 at 8:09 pm

Poloz is such a dove the boc keeps calling inflation to cool down to 2% next year as the gasoline boost fizzles out .

For those dreaming of rampid rate hikes this is very bearish of the boc considering where we are.

Rate hikes might even slow or pause next year .

Meanwhile wage growth is nearing 4% and employers keep adding job, huge investments like google labs downtown t.o

#65 When the Whip Comes Down on 09.05.18 at 8:10 pm

#20 – Vic – yep its different, its on an island y’know! Seems they don’t catch on to things here as fast. Smaller market. It took them longer to catch on to the price growth this last cycle and, probably, they’ll be a bit slower to see the correction. But they will see it. Incomes here are not brilliant there. Way less jobs too and far less turnover. You have a good job there, you remain in it for as long as you can.

#66 Josh on 09.05.18 at 8:12 pm

While I do hope houses become more affordable, the two examples Garth Turner provided are not accurate.

He picked houses from the West Hill area, and that area is a really really bad area, riddled with crime, and is closed to a lot of gangs. The fact that it even got 475k actually shows Toronto housing market is holding up quite well.

Not my choices, as clearly spelled out. But nice pivot. – Garth

#67 Linda on 09.05.18 at 8:14 pm

Transparency regarding actual RE stats (DOM, asking vs. sold price etc.) plus actual examples of RE going for less than list. For those who have been visiting this blog to decry their inability to purchase, it looks like opportunity may be coming your way. Time to put up or shut up. Not like that will ever happen, instead there will be a litany of reasons of varying validity as to why that longed for property purchase is being deferred. Just remember that the window of opportunity isn’t going to last forever.

Interesting to hear that some developers/builders may be on the cusp of receivership. Could be some real bargains to be had, but be prepared for delays in completion. Selling off the assets takes time & whoever buys the goods may have a different vision of how development will proceed.

#68 young & foolish on 09.05.18 at 8:15 pm

Grandad says — “Skittish buyers make good tenants”

#69 Dolce Vita on 09.05.18 at 8:15 pm

Last Comment – let others have their say too.

More grist for your mill.

Tweet by Steve Saretsky yesterday, a YVR Realtor, etc.

REBGV Vancouver August Detached unit sales by year since the early 90’s. 2018 worse than the Great Recession (his chart easier on the eyes than your Fraser Valley chart):

https://i.imgur.com/9u8VLml.jpg

#70 Jim on 09.05.18 at 8:22 pm

Re Cowtown,

There won’t be a boom anytime soon with fracking in the states and other sources of supply as well as the move toward more sustainable energy, so why would you buy in Calgary? The mild winters? The thriving cultural scene? The vibrant downtown? Plus, the sprawl continues, so they can build the city out so far that you can probably buy a house for $300K if you go far enough

#71 The Real Mark on 09.05.18 at 8:24 pm

The drop in sales is even more severe than Garth’s charts imply as the housing stock has grown considerably in the past few decades.

Adjusted to the change in the size of the housing stock, the drop in sales is absolutely and utterly devastating.

Since there is a large “industry” that has grown up around transactional RE, substantial numbers of individuals associated with those sectors are likely to have their income impaired severely.

Contagion….coming right up.

Poloz, at best, is on hold, and probably will be forced to cut pretty soon here. The brief burst of inflation was almost entirely due to oil’s recovery, and now oil prices are falling.

#72 The Real Mark on 09.05.18 at 8:31 pm

“#19 SoggyShorts on 09.05.18 at 6:46 pm
Stan Brooks”

Don’t waste too much time on Stan, or the outlandish claims, made by people like John Williams of Shadowstats, that inflation is running 8-10%.

If anything, the official “inflation” statistics are over-stated, so that public servants and pensioners, with inflation-indexed income, can get raises that are in excess of inflation. Since the public sector people have solidly out-earned most other Canadians over the past 20-30 years, they have most of the money in the country and there’s enormous incentive to manipulate the presentation of inflation figures to overstate inflation and thus improve their “returns” far beyond what the economy could normally support.

Seriously, the equity risk premium in Canada has been non-existent for a generation. That should tell you everything you need to know, that interest rates have chronically been set too high, relative to the actual amount of inflation present in the Canadian economy. Various BoC governors have pursued “anti-inflation” policy that crushed the economy. John Crow’s late 1980s interest rate policy was disastrous for Canada in hindsight.

#73 Ack! on 09.05.18 at 8:35 pm

Carbon taxes are a scam! I just went through my mail and since April the carbon taxes have been approximately 80% of what the charges for the natural gas were! Now granted, natgas prices in Alberta are pretty low right now, but I guarantee you there isn’t much more I can do to save on heating costs besides shutting off the furnace. That won’t work in the winter. They may as well tax air, I need some amount of natural gas or the pipes will freeze.

Carbon taxes are really just a pole tax. But then, so are most taxes. They could have just raised the HST to 25%, same effect.

#74 KLNR on 09.05.18 at 8:36 pm

@#5 Question garth… on 09.05.18 at 6:22 pm
So why the (bleep) is my apartment company hiking rents for their apartments?

When I first rented back in 2009, my monthly lease was $900 (with rent hikes my last monthly rent was $1,169.85). Once I moved from there, my new tenants have to pay $1,600 + utilities for that same sh***y one bedroom.
Explain why?!
__________________________

It’s called supply and demand.
I feel for folks who have to rent in TO.
Rents are insane here.

#75 S.Bby on 09.05.18 at 8:36 pm

Jungle:
Thanks for the comic relief.

#76 Prairieboy43 on 09.05.18 at 8:38 pm

Alberta referendum may be on the Table. Jason Kenney once elected (March 2019), may entice refendum vote Stamp it. NDP will be dismantled and entered into Alberta Political History. Take a picture.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/separatism-may-be-on-the-rise-in-alberta-after-trans-mountain-decision-kenney-1.4081573

#77 Balraj Dhalandar Roy on 09.05.18 at 8:42 pm

Is “Pink about to flop” on vacation? I’m glad I don’t have to read his/her non-sense posts.

In other news, Vaughan is still a hot area where houses are going for over list prices. Go figure!

49 Timna Cres – Ask $1.598m Sold $1.73m
82 Jazz Drive – Ask $1.42m Sold $1.43m

These are just a few samples. Now can you dig that, suckaaaa?

#78 Pete on 09.05.18 at 8:43 pm

if I posted my email in name field as error, please remove it

The CRA has been notified. – Garth

#79 MTLmarket on 09.05.18 at 8:46 pm

A friend is trying to buy a house in MTL on island right now and is finding it incredibly difficult. Houses still have multiple bids and they were outbid on the last house because the winner (of the 5 bidders involved) waived the inspection (bad idea in MTL with hard winters wrecking havoc on foundations and roofs etc). Wondering if you are seeing/hearing the same and if Montreal will feel this RE crash at all.

#80 Spectacle on 09.05.18 at 8:53 pm

#22 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.05.18 at 6:48 pm
@#1 Jungle The Realtor
“Tomorrow TREB reports and I’ll spoil it for the bears: NO housing crash in the GTA!!”

++++

Ahahahahahahahahahahaha.

Ladies and Gentlemen.
Living Proof Realtors believe their own Bull$h!t

+++++++++++++++++}{+++++++++++++++
I had to laugh …does he get the hidden joke about a Bear market and a Bull (Shiite) market?

I got to get out more often! Damn this blog ; )

#81 Tony on 09.05.18 at 8:55 pm

Re: #23 Prairieboy43 on 09.05.18 at 6:52 pm

The resale townhouses and resale apartments today in Edmonton sell for about half or 50 percent less than what they sold for way back in May 2007 almost eleven and a half years ago. These are the identical townhouses and identical apartment units.

#82 Tony on 09.05.18 at 8:56 pm

In a real estate correction or crash land and vacant lots always fall first and hardest.

#83 arfmoocat on 09.05.18 at 8:58 pm

Bitcoin crash is on !!

#84 Spectacle debunker.. on 09.05.18 at 8:59 pm

#72 pm

“#19 SoggyShorts on 09.05.18 at 6:46 pm
Stan Brooks”

Don’t waste too much time on Stan, or the outlandish claims, made by people like John Williams of Shadowstats, that inflation is running 8-10%.

//////////////////(:) \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\

Seriously ? Haven’t even gassed up an Elevator lately then, much less a Hummer H1 TD. The gas station auto loads now for $200, yes. Gone is that stinky little $50 preach debit! Ouch.

#85 BlogDog123 on 09.05.18 at 8:59 pm

From TREB law firm

Hey those screenshots are the property of TREB(TM). Your REALTOR(R) friend is gonna hear from our legal henchmen. We demand a hefty fee for lifting our copyrighted info and putting it on your website.

Your fiendly neighbourhood Toronto Real Estate Board, owner of said copyrighted MLS(R) screens.

#86 Asterix1 on 09.05.18 at 9:01 pm

#1 Jungle on 09.05.18 at 6:01 pm

“…There is literally no sign of collapse happening in the housing market.”
___________________________________________

I think you drank too much TREB Kool-Aid!

Nasty stuff, very bitter and smells like crap!

#87 renter in Surrey on 09.05.18 at 9:02 pm

I have got so much popcorn for the last few years so I can open popcorn shop now.

Langley prices are still holding. Can’t see any material discounts.

#88 arfmoocat on 09.05.18 at 9:07 pm

1) Jungle: In the mean time, the growing economy, wage growth and employment will easily handle it.
………………………………………………………………………

There isn’t any wage growth, the median house income was higher in the 70’s then it is today.

#89 Fish on 09.05.18 at 9:14 pm

funny you said to me
I REALLY don’t know about you,
and I ACTUALLY don’t know why you asked?

moving house isn’t easy by yourself,
After I got relief from 2 guys and grateful

#90 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.05.18 at 9:16 pm

@#76 Spectacle
“I had to laugh …does he get the hidden joke about a Bear market and a Bull (Shiite) market?”
++++

Yep.
Poor delusional Jungle.
Believes his own Realtor propaganda.
Sad.

Today in Vancouver.
City of Van reports AirBnB “official” listings at 3300.
In April there were more than 6600 AirBnb sites.

Oh where will those underwater mortgage holders get money to stay above water?

Burnaby?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/burnaby-fire-metrotown-empty-home-1.4810788

#91 yorkville renter on 09.05.18 at 9:19 pm

#77 – a simple search on Zolo says the average ask for the hood where 82 Jazz is located is $1.6mm, so selling for $1.43mm over ask isn’t really gangbusters, is it?

also, YoY the neighborhood is down over 11%

#92 Fish on 09.05.18 at 9:19 pm

PLEASE FOR got to say I’m done. 2014 and waiting for homes price to change and if you need a Confirmation I have the letter IN storage

#93 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.05.18 at 9:19 pm

Why bother owning in Burnaby when one can live in Vandelusional…..

https://globalnews.ca/news/4427697/metro-vancouver-fire-crews-battle-pair-of-blazes-tuesday-night/

Ahhhhh,
the 1980’s ……all…… over…… again.

#94 Wrk.dover on 09.05.18 at 9:23 pm

#19 SoggyShorts on 09.05.18 at 6:46 pm
Stan Brooks

Inflation is not at 8-10%, that would be a doubling rate of about 7 years, and it’s simply not possible in the future, nor did it happen in the past
—————————————-

Were you in soggy diapers in the post ‘Nam / OPEC era?

Everything inflated plenty, monthly actually except of course income. I know a man that worked a farm tractor daily, and he traded in three years in row because he was getting what he had paid as the trade in allowance.

Mini’s, then the cheapest car of all, tripled in price from 73-78, then stopped rolling off the ship altogether, with 79’s being leftover 78’s.

In the early 90’s CDN$ was worth about sixty cents US, when car prices peaked. Then as CDN$ went up, it ate the increases.

I foresee no reason for $CDN to go up in your lifetime.

Stan Brooks is just trying to preach to the deaf here.

I’m quite glad he is making the effort. He is truth.

Happy currency crash Soggy Shorts!

#95 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.05.18 at 9:23 pm

@#666 Josh
“Toronto housing market is holding up quite well.”
++++

You’re joshing us right?

#96 Pete on 09.05.18 at 9:27 pm

#77 Balraj Dhalandar Roy………………………………………….

you probably purchased your 1st home recently and are in denial…

#97 SimplyPut7 on 09.05.18 at 9:30 pm

Nice to see the truth come out, I was tired of everyone in Toronto pretending they make a lot of money and saved cash or sold financial assets to buy these investment homes. GTA residents are poor and have no savings like the rest of Canada.

I saw those very low sold prices in the Toronto area sold reports, but just thought they were computer errors. There are examples like those in all cities reported in the TREB sold data reports.

Many homes on MLS are empty, many more homes are empty and haven’t been listed on MLS yet. I don’t know what the end game is for these people, especially those with 2 or 3 mortgages that will be coming due in this rising rate market.

The kids are broke, the little foreigners we had are gone. All of those homes listed for more than 5 times people’s salaries are in for a rude awakening.

#98 X on 09.05.18 at 9:35 pm

Odds of a US Fed rate hike later this month? I am guessing another quarter point.

Also guessing BoC will follow suit at the Oct meeting.

#99 ANON on 09.05.18 at 9:48 pm

Get some popcoin also to go with it. And a big umbrella. The sh** storm is about to begin.

#100 Comrade Maritimer on 09.05.18 at 9:48 pm

Meanwhile, in Fredericton, NB someone bought all or nearly all half-decent houses. There were quite a few options in the $200-250k range, most are gone. Must be YYZ / YVR folks cashing out and retiring

#101 Financial Orchid on 09.05.18 at 9:55 pm

The carnage begins!!
I should have listened to my mother!
Ooh wait.

#102 PastThePeak on 09.05.18 at 10:18 pm

#83 arfmoocat on 09.05.18 at 8:58 pm
Bitcoin crash is on !!
+++++++++++++++++++++++++

Actually Bitcoin has held up better than I thought (hasn’t gone down long below $6K USD, though of course it is off about 70% from its brief peak). The other popular cryptocurrencies, like Ethereum and Bitcoin Cash though, have been severely trounced.

#103 Spectacle on 09.05.18 at 10:22 pm

#90
crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.05.18 at 9:16 pm
@#76 Spectacle
“I had to laugh …does he get the hidden joke about a Bear market and a Bull (Shiite) market?”
++++

Yep.
Poor delusional Jungle.
Believes his own Realtor propaganda.
Sad.

Today in Vancouver.
City of Van reports AirBnB “official” listings at 3300.
In April there were more than 6600 AirBnb sites.

Oh where will those underwater mortgage holders get money to stay above water?

Burnaby?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/burnaby-fire-metrotown-empty-home-1.4810788
::::::::::::::::::::::::—-::::::::::::::::::::::
So many Fires! Well…..how do you start a flood? They saved $50k on demo, less the torching fee!

#104 Smoking Man on 09.05.18 at 10:36 pm

If you’re a ceo of a publicly traded company, you chose sides in this polatized world you’re going to cost your share holders huge.

What is wrong with them? What’s to gain? A better seat at Davos. A George Soros ataboy? Beats me.

Jordan quits Nike board and pulls his air jordans. His dad was vet.

https://trumpbetrayed.us/all/breaking-michael-jordan-resigns-from-the-board-at-nike-takes-air-jordans-with-him/

#105 Nonplused on 09.05.18 at 10:38 pm

#19 SoggyShorts

Ya, it did happen in the past, the 70’s to be precise. The main difference back then was that wages somewhat kept up and then Volker stopped it in the 80’s.

Inflation is a real problem. It destroys savings and if wages don’t keep up it destroys lifestyles. Even at 2% there are problems.

#106 Toronto Renter on 09.05.18 at 10:46 pm

So.. does that mean now is the time to buy?

#107 Stan Brooks on 09.05.18 at 10:49 pm

So it officially starts to unravel.

Calgary was never in a bubble but it is crashing down.

‘Executive townhouse’/’Luxury condo’ in Scarborough? Cough cough.

———————————–

#1 Jungle on 09.05.18 at 6:01 pm
THE BOC has no intention on aggressively hiking interest rates, nor are they overly concerned with headline inflation at 3%. Also, the days of “normal or high rates” are looking less and less likely. Think technology and globalization impact.

If you were expecting interest rates to crash the GTA housing market, you are likely to be disappointed. Demand, wealth , job creation is very strong in the GTA -There is literally no sign of collapse happening in the housing market. It might even grow. What’s incredible , is that even as we absorb a stress test, the market has show strength to overcome. Not crash.

Read the BOC press today and understand the wording. This is a trend starting. With 2-3 more hikes expected over the next year, then slowing economic growth by 2020 . Economist even calling for The FED to cut rate in 2020. And interest rates will still be at very low levels.

In the mean time, the growing economy, wage growth and employment will easily handle it.

Tomorrow TREB reports and I’ll spoil it for the bears: NO housing crash in the GTA!

You exemplify the absolute stupidity, ignorance and confusion that characterizes and helped blowing this super bubble.

Wealth, job, demand in GTA? What planet or universe do you live on?

There are plenty of signs for the coming collapse, an absolutely devastating storm about to hit GTA and the ‘economy’, you just choose to ignore it.

The whole wealth effect is based on the housing market/super credit bubble Ponzi scheme and it will quickly evaporate as indicated on this article.


I’m guessing this is what happens when you live in a city that approximates a casino at a mental clinic with a bank financing the Russian Roulette.”

Exactly. A mental Institution. Total failure of authority.
Words from my dictionary entering the mainstream.
Impossible to hear just a year ago.

The little pathetic man at BoC can not raise rates meaningfully. The whole world knows it. He does not need to in order to crash the Ponzi scheme.
Capital already is leaving this place.
You can only lie, extend and pretend that much at least to the external world.

As for the gullible local sheeple who has any trust left in ‘authorities’, that will start facing it’s limits soon as well.

——————————————-

#19 SoggyShorts on 09.05.18 at 6:46 pm

Pretty much yes on most of the stuff.

Which part of a ‘currency crises’ is not clear to you?
The NAFTA stability is over. Look at Mexico. You think we are superior to them? They certainly look much smarter than the T2 crying negotiators lately.

https://tradingeconomics.com/mexico/inflation-cpi


Inflation rate in Mexico rose to 4.81 percent year-on-year in July 2018 from 4.65 percent in June and matching market expectations. It was the second straight increase in inflation and the steepest since March, prompted by higher prices of energy, housing and food. Inflation Rate in Mexico averaged 24.89 percent from 1974 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 179.73 percent in February of 1988 and a record low of 2.13 percent in December of 2015.

Keep in mind, Mexico is much warmer place, you can grow stuff in your backyard and they depend on their government for most of their pensions.

Here I guarantee you with the aggressive depletion of CPP and OAS through inflation nobody is going to give you anything than a pittance not enough even for substitute GMO food.

How much is a pound of organic tomatoes at whole foods compared to 25 years ago? You do that math but you can hardly call the crap sold at grocery store ‘tomatoes’ these days.

It is cold here, you can’t grow stuff to eat in your backyard and you rely on the grocery stores for everything food related.

GTA is already full with working poor, soon many more of them will go hungry. There is nothing apocalyptic in that picture, it happens all around the world, look at Argentina for example and they are a fine food producer.

Currency crises are crises of confidence and tend to unravel very quickly, we are not prepared for that and the bozos at BC have not clue what kind of fire they are playing with.

The face of the BoC boss looks pretty reddish on latest photos, not sure if he is into heavy drinking or just having some health issues but I have some feelings that being the chicken little he is he would be retiring pretty soon by health reasons.

The sheeple will be left with the bill and the clowns.

#108 jane24 on 09.05.18 at 10:52 pm

This is my 4th housing downturn in a very long and varied life. The next stage is indeed the FALLING KNIFE stage. Prices have dropped a little so you are tempted to buy but then they just keep on dropping a little each month for years. If you are legit future buyer please wait or you will be very sorry that you caught that falling knife. Don’t get excited abut 5% off, wait for the final sale.

#109 neo on 09.05.18 at 10:54 pm

#24 bb on 09.05.18 at 6:53 pm
Checked out the Missisauga home (Housesigma.com). Turned out to be a 1.75M financial windfall for the seller as it was bought at 851k last 2016.

https://housesigma.com/site/listing/0ZxwR7MV5jz3KabB

As land. – Garth

****************************************

Ya, that sucker paid $851K in 2016 as a land deal and carried that for two years while they tried to built a 8,500 sq/ft house which at a minimum of 250 a sq/ft for a custom house would be $2,125,000 and that’s without landscaping and hardscape which could add another $100,000 for a lot that size. They are easily into this project $3,000,000 and took a $400,000 haircut on the sale.

I am not even sure the guy that bought it for $2,600,000 got a good deal considering the amount of work that looksl ike still needs to be done.

#110 MF on 09.05.18 at 10:58 pm

#97 SimplyPut7 on 09.05.18 at 9:30 p

A complete BS comment. Almost as bad as a realtor’s comments but with a role reversal. The collapse is always “around the corner”….like a pot of gold next to a rainbow.

Take My parents for example. Purchased years ago in the gta and have seen huge increases in value over the years. Zero mortgage ever. Tons of financial assets on top of it all. Many many others in their position. If a downturn occurs they will consider purchasing.

All my 35 year ish friends who bought here did so years ago and enjoyed the huge increase in values. Most are sitting on lots of equity as a result.

Poloz didn’t raise today. Rates aren’t going anywhere and monthly payments are still affordable. Rents are a hilarious joke, creating an aversion to lifetime renting. Most people are waiting just waiting to buy.

Add a tight job market, with the GTA being where the jobs are, and this idea that everyone is house poor is laughable. It sounds like some of the small town Americans I hear complaining about New York.

“I would never want to live there!”….okay, someone tell them the city will keep booming with or without them. The trend is towards urbanization. And it’s speeding up, not slowing down.

Most immigrants families I know purchased In Scarborough, or Brampton, have multiple breadwinners and are doing well. Again, rates are going nowhere fast and monthlies are affordable. Rents being so high are prohibitive.

Nice propaganda but 100% bull excrement.

MF

#111 Reality is stark on 09.05.18 at 11:01 pm

It is always better to rent rather than own.
The new model always gives a better ride. Old models need maintenance and look worse with age.
Let the owner have all the problems.
If you absolutely have to own buy in your 50’s when you can easily afford it and buy new so that you won’t have any grief for at least 10 years.

#112 SoggyShorts on 09.05.18 at 11:05 pm

#94 Wrk.dover on 09.05.18 at 9:23 pm
#19 SoggyShorts on 09.05.18 at 6:46 pm
Stan Brooks
#105 Nonplused on 09.05.18 at 10:38 pm
#19 SoggyShorts

To be clear, Stan has been claiming that the real inflation is currently 8-10%, and presumably he means it has been for a while. At no point has he mentioned inflation rates 50 years ago. We are talking about the last few years, maybe as far as a couple of decades (he doesn’t give dates) and forward from now until who knows (again he doesn’t give dates)

So when I said rates have not been 8-10% “in the past” I am referring to last year, the year before, and up to whatever he is talking about, when he says rates “are” 8-10%, not the 70s, 30s, 1800s etc.

#113 yorkville renter on 09.05.18 at 11:10 pm

#104 – smoking man – I’m calling shenanigans.

1) MJ didn’t quit the board
2) I don’t believe this is a real SM post

I did hear that MJ said he didn’t do politics because Republicans also buy shoes, but the article above is pure BS.

#114 Jack Richardson on 09.05.18 at 11:10 pm

All those that take comfort at low interest rates and central banks as their friends just wait next year.

If you think 2008 was bad, watch out in 2019! I am glad our family does not need to depend on 7%-10% a year returns to live with content and enjoyment.

Being debt free is the new retirement wealth and it does not matter what great rate you think you have with your debts. Enjoy paying your monthlies…………

#115 viorelli on 09.05.18 at 11:18 pm

Nothing lasts forever, the bull run is finally over in BC. The prices could only go so high and became utterly ridiculous a while ago. Unfortunately the sheeple could not see it coming and many are up to their eyeballs in debt, bad bad debt, which most likely cannot be repaid by many. This, however is just the beginning and many new NDP rules are here: spec taxes, Air B and B, empty home tax, carbon tax, give back to the community tax, casino crackdown, etc, etc. This spells only one long term direction for the real estate here: down. The rents will hold for a while but will be also reduced in a not so distant future. Most of the smart people had already cashed out last year and diversified into US RE (USD rent), and only kept the boats moorage downtown (some have several bedrooms and can be written off as business expense, promotional, while showing our beautiful city to the potential customers). It is truly just the beginning.

#116 Mad realtor on 09.05.18 at 11:19 pm

With MLS open we can no longer lie. The truth is now coming out the housing market is crashing and has been crashing for awhile. Lies was holding it from a collapse. You can see the fear and anger from my fellow out of work realtors

#117 crdt on 09.05.18 at 11:31 pm

I’ve been following the real estate market since 07 with utter amazement as prices soared out of reach. Million became understood, like an inside joke shared by the denizens, asking 1.2 paid 1.2++. People were actually bragging how much they paid. People who would balk at the cost of a new car, threw multiples of that amount at the seller with reckless abandon. They bared their buttocks proudly. Like gasoline on a barn fire. The more the sellers got, the more they wanted.

Then came the attitudes that came with the “wealth”. People actually took credit for it as if they created this new wealth with their spectacular drywall. With so much money appearing on their assessments, their self estimation got ever more skewed.

As the market is now CLEARLY correcting, those sold stickers are WAY out numbered by the flood of bubble priced listings.

Soon saving money; bragging about how much less one paid will be in vogue. The realization of the epic blunder jack hammered home by the thousands of self reprimands, the days working for nothing in perpetuity to save face, to provide, to keep the pretense.

I feel real pity for the stress this will put on the children, and eventually for the “owners” as well. This bubble will be one of legends, as first time buyers during the last few years get thrown into financial purgatory until their respect for the number “million” returns.

It has been a slice, great opportunities, lots of really awesome places were built, like new rec centers, cool water park in Aldergove, towers, really nice communities, unique houses… Kind of sad to see it blow the “f” up like a slow motion “cool guys don’t look back” type thing.

I would really like to imagine that the impact will be minimal, and I truly hope it will be. I suppose all those construction workers could start teaching yoga classes to help everyone de-stressed from their financial s*domy.

#118 PeterfromCalgary on 09.05.18 at 11:55 pm

One thing that puzzles me about Calgary is all the new condos going up in my hood. Who is going to buy these things with rising interest rates and a depressed economy?

#119 John on 09.06.18 at 12:00 am

SMOKING MAN
If you’re a ceo of a publicly traded company, you chose sides in this polatized world you’re going to cost your share holders huge.

What is wrong with them? What’s to gain? A better seat at Davos. A George Soros ataboy? Beats me.

Jordan quits Nike board and pulls his air jordans. His dad was vet.

Geez and YOU complain about fake news…what an idiot

#120 penguin on 09.06.18 at 12:05 am

The senior bank manager (maybe 30 years old) at the green bank was surprisingly frank tonight on how much real estate would go down in the GTA during 2019 while my wife and I applied for a pre-approved mortgage. Many of his clients are already desperate to dump their detached homes.

#121 TurnerNation on 09.06.18 at 12:37 am

Three weak examples. No one cares about east West Hill or west end land.
Fact is any place withing easy distance to downtown or subway will run 1 milllion+.

Even if downtown 1.5m and 2m semis drops tons, 1m still will be the point of entrty into this market

Case in point. Tiny crappy semi in so-so area, with an 80s kitchen. Should be 500k, but 1m it is:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/toronto/article-removing-renters-from-queen-west-home-in-toronto-accelerates-its-sale/

#122 Wallflower on 09.06.18 at 12:38 am

Has anyone checked out Fort McMurray lately? Not too long ago, all you could find under $400K was a trailer.

#123 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.06.18 at 12:39 am

I vote this the handle of the month.
Yesterday poster

Toaster Oven Strudle

#124 Trumpal Lobotomy Victom on 09.06.18 at 1:17 am

#104 Smoking Man on 09.05.18 at 10:36 pm

If you’re a ceo of a publicly traded company, you chose sides in this polatized world you’re going to cost your share holders huge.

What is wrong with them? What’s to gain? A better seat at Davos. A George Soros ataboy? Beats me.

Jordan quits Nike board and pulls his air jordans. His dad was vet.

https://trumpbetrayed.us/all/breaking-michael-jordan-resigns-from-the-board-at-nike-takes-air-jordans-with-him/
..
FAKE, FAKE , FAKE… wow are you gullible,, well that what’s you get after a Trumpal Lobotomy

#125 SoggyShorts on 09.06.18 at 1:27 am

#107 Stan Brooks on 09.05.18 at 10:49 pm
#19 SoggyShorts on 09.05.18 at 6:46 pm
Pretty much yes on most of the stuff.
****************
Could you be a little more specific?
How long do you think inflation has been at 10%?
The only example you gave was organic tomatoes which you then immediately dismissed.

It’s possible I just don’t buy enough stuff, but over the past few years I haven’t noticed my per dollar purchasing power drop significantly at all. Sure restaurants and gas has gone up, but not 60% in the last 5 years, at least not in Alberta, and really not even enough to offset the drops in rent the last couple of years.
With my rent dropping 10% 2 years in a row, I’m actually able to make my spending money go further than before.
My goal the last 3 years was
70% investments
10% rent
10% travel
10% everything else
And we haven’t changed our lifestyle at all, so either we are extremely strange with our spending, or there wasn’t 10% yearly inflation the last 3 years.

#126 Karma on 09.06.18 at 1:29 am

#104 Smoking Man on 09.05.18 at 10:36 pm
“If you’re a ceo of a publicly traded company, you chose sides in this polatized world you’re going to cost your share holders huge.

What is wrong with them? What’s to gain? A better seat at Davos. A George Soros ataboy? Beats me.

Jordan quits Nike board and pulls his air jordans. His dad was vet.

https://trumpbetrayed.us/all/breaking-michael-jordan-resigns-from-the-board-at-nike-takes-air-jordans-with-him/

^ Definition of fake news.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/jordan-nike-board/

#127 Smoking Man on 09.06.18 at 1:43 am

169 James on 09.05.18 at 4:02 pm
#112 Smoking Man on 06.08.18 at 12:57 am

Vegas tomorrow dogs. My knights are throwing a huge party. Sucks they lost. I’m happy for Ovy. He deserves it.
Now I don’t have to rip my appt apart looking for my 500 to 1 fifty dollar ticket, that bet on the knights winning the cup.
Ford wins. Justin the girl groper is next to go down.
If in the land of cbc weirdos could not stop Ford. Trump will kill insanity in the mid terms.
Life is getting good.
Periscope in vegas. Action can be followed here.
@SmokingMan
On Linked In
Jim Stojsin.
My friends call me Stoj.
Your serve JohneeBoy. James, Grvey Train..
I’m board.
________________________________________
Hey old man I don’t know what you call yourself AKA Jim Stojsin but I thought you said Roger Waters sucked, education is for losers and your in favour of building a wall with the Trumpster.
Wow did you flip or are you simple an opportunistic yoke hitcher on the Trump Train?
Just do a quick search and viola.
Per Jim Stojsin “And finally, if you want to stop the children of Palestine strapping dynamite to themselves, let them have an education, give them something to hope for.”

TEAR DOWN THE WALL!

https://english.tebyan.net/newindex.aspx?pid=26400

……

Jim Stojsin is a gutless wimp. A good little tax farm slave..His alter ego Smoking Man has taken over his trump key storks for survival.

Jimmy is a good man. Smoking man taught jimmy how to trade forex.
Fire me tomorrow. Wont make a difference .

Someone please send in a shrink for wee Jim Stojsin.
He is nutless.

I finally made the chicken shit a winner.
I’m smoking mans alter ego.

Dr Smoking Man
Phd Herdonomics.

#128 Reader on 09.06.18 at 1:45 am

I can as easily find listings that sold for over asking. Please show me the same examples in prime Toronto locations like Lawrence park, Leaside, Highpark, etc… Sorry you can’t because they don’t exist. Today’s blog is very disappointing that you are just trying to scare your readers with no real evidence. Two of the listings that you showed are in the same area so it doesn’t represent the average GTA.

#129 Howard on 09.06.18 at 4:14 am

LOL @ “Executive Townhouse”

What the hell is that?

#130 Looney Baloney on 09.06.18 at 4:24 am

DELETED

#131 Evangeline on 09.06.18 at 5:46 am

#104 Smoking Man

I believe your link went to a satire site

In small print beside the byline: Political misinformation under the guise of offering satire

and the url was “trump betrayed dot us”

#132 Wrk.dover on 09.06.18 at 6:11 am

#112 SoggyShorts on 09.05.18 at 11:05 pm

So when I said rates have not been 8-10% “in the past” I am referring to last year, the year before, and up to whatever he is talking about, when he says rates “are” 8-10%, not the 70s, 30s, 1800s etc.

—————————————-

I see an every fifty year pattern right here…..

#133 Wrk.dover on 09.06.18 at 6:46 am

#125 SoggyShorts on 09.06.18 at 1:27 am

My goal the last 3 years was
70% investments
10% rent
10% travel
10% everything else

————————————————-

Uh, has the cost of those investments gone up? As in less shares for more money, gulp?

So, your own particular rent went down, but the cost of running a home hasn’t for those of us that can afford to own one outright, under the rule of 90. Did the landlord reduce your rent because his costs decreased? But of course she did not!

Any Caribbean resort worth going back to has been up more than 10% each of three years running. (the only travel I know currently/very intimately)

Everything else to sheeple is car expense, check your labour cost on past car service invoices. Uppa uppa!

I’ll tell you right now Buddy, Stan Brooks is low balling the inflation numbers to sound credible in reality.

#134 SimplyPut7 on 09.06.18 at 7:32 am

#128 Reader on 09.06.18 at 1:45 am

Wow! The realtors are out to get you Garth.

For the umpteenth time, as explained by Ross Kay 2 or 3 years ago when he warned you Vancouver was starting to turn and no one was paying attention.

If I have $2 million and in late 2016 and early 2017, I could only afford a crap box in Leslieville, Leaside, High Park, Lawrence Park, the Beaches, Thornhill, certain parts of Richmond Hill and Markham. If I still qualify for a $2 million home in 2018 and I have lost my sanity and still want to live in these overpriced areas, I will use ALL of my $2 million to buy the home that used to cost $2.5 million – $2.9 million.

There are many examples of that all over the high-end parts of the GTA, our sold data shows us that. But the average sold price the media and real estate boards will show still be high, because it’s hiding the fact that the house that used to sell for $2.5 million is now selling for $1,999,000 and went for $5,000 over asking so the realtor could feel happy about putting up a sold over asking sign on the front lawn (rare now, but still happens).

As rates continue to rise and people realize their debts need to be paid off, that $2 million may become $1.85 million and eventually $1.5 million. But high-end areas make up a small portion of the entire GTA market, where there are thousands of poor people who cannot afford to carry their flipped homes, empty investment condos or rent out their condos at a loss for too much longer. Especially as it becomes more apparent that prices are falling, as it became more apparent in Vancouver, where sales have cratered.

All prices are still too high, many of the people in the expensive parts of the GTA and middle-class and low-income areas of the GTA, have no savings. There is nothing put away to pay for higher mortgage payments or the risk of job loss, as thousands of realtors, stagers, mortgage brokers, construction workers are at risk for being out of work or not making half of what they used for the next several years. Which means they will not be able to spend money on luxury cars, take clients to restaurants, buy expensive clothing, pay for expensive vacations etc. When home prices reflect these realities, maybe we can start talking about rock bottom prices. We are not there yet.

Interesting that my post covered urban Vancouver, the Fraser Valley, Victoria, Calgary and the Big Smoke – and look at reader/realtor reaction. Denial is alive and well in poor GTA. – Garth

#135 Tater on 09.06.18 at 7:40 am

#129 Howard on 09.06.18 at 4:14 am
LOL @ “Executive Townhouse”

What the hell is that?
——————————————————————-
Something NYC and London have, but Toronto doesn’t.

#136 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.06.18 at 8:21 am

@#110 MF
“rates are going nowhere fast and monthlies are affordable. Rents being so high are prohibitive.

Nice propaganda but 100% bull excrement…..”

+++++

Soooo when rates hike in the next 4 weeks you’ll be willing to eat some of that hypothetical BS?

#137 yorkville renter on 09.06.18 at 8:21 am

a couple points on tonight’s blog

1) Yes, the listings are cherry picked, but crashes start somewhere and usually in crappier goods… not prime hoods

2) Transactions have collapsed, prices will be next.

#138 Howard on 09.06.18 at 8:24 am

#44 Aristicus on 09.05.18 at 7:24 pm

Looking for recommended documentaries on the roaring 20’s and The Great Depression of the 30’s.

Any suggestions???

—————————————-

I concur with the PBS video Dolce Vita posted : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ccNilnpvbJg

It was made in the 90s and therefore includes numerous personal accounts of those who actually witnessed the 1929 crash. I’ve watched many documentaries about 1929 and it’s the best by far.

#139 Karl on 09.06.18 at 8:26 am

“Toronto’s housing market kept its footing August as sales gained while prices were little changed, continuing to stabilize after a turbulent year.”

But, but … what about those crappy listing examples?!?

Let’s see how people here spin the “spin”.

#140 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.06.18 at 8:29 am

@#129 Howard

“Executive Townhouse”

What the hell is that?

++++++

Thats what Realtors call Townhouses ( aka duplex).

“Executive” just makes it sound more important to the rubes being fleeced.

Realtor doublespeak sales pitch. Totally BS like most everything that spews forth when they open their mouths.

Dont forget people.
Realtors live off sales commissions that your so helpfully provide.
Used car salesmen with the power of their “closed shop” cartel information providers.
The party is over realtors.
Welcome to the internet.

:)

#141 thebarold on 09.06.18 at 8:45 am

List price and DOM cannot be trusted as indicators of the real estate market. They can be manipulated by realtors re-listing, or by setting a price no-where near ‘market value’ The only true indicator is sold price, after conditions are met (DFT could be an indicator that should not be fudged) – and as the stats build you can see the trend in market value and therefore the health of the real estate market.

#142 Victor V on 09.06.18 at 8:50 am

Terence Corcoran: Don’t blame ‘rich’ bankers for the 2008 global crash. Blame socialism

https://business.financialpost.com/opinion/terence-corcoran-dont-blame-rich-bankers-for-the-2008-global-crash-blame-socialism

#143 KLNR on 09.06.18 at 8:54 am

@#114 Jack Richardson on 09.05.18 at 11:10 pm
All those that take comfort at low interest rates and central banks as their friends just wait next year.

If you think 2008 was bad, watch out in 2019! I am glad our family does not need to depend on 7%-10% a year returns to live with content and enjoyment.

Being debt free is the new retirement wealth and it does not matter what great rate you think you have with your debts. Enjoy paying your monthlies…………
______________________________________
You guys have been saying watch out since I bought my first house in 2000. Everytime I bought another – watch out! Maybe the market does settle down in 2019, maybe not. Have to agree with you on being debt free – it is a nice feeling.

#144 45north on 09.06.18 at 8:56 am

Alex Prikhodko says it’s about to hit the fan, with industry rumours at least one major bank is bracing for a real estate recession while a major high-profile builder teeters on the edge of bankruptcy. Scores of buyers are apparently walking away from their signed contracts.
“I would like to point out that up to this moment, the ‘correction’ has been purely psychological. Starting about now, the real economic factors are starting to kick in,” he says. “People are in DIRE situations, with builder closings coming up and unable to sell even at massive discounts”.

the key words are “starting about now”. It’s interesting that houses on Mortimer Avenue in Toronto are selling as soon as they are put up for sale while houses further out might not sell in a year. I’m thinking the banks would have stricter rules for houses further out. The stricter rules, in effect, reduce the price of the houses further out.

Nope. It is simply a function of ‘demand’ hoods. As this blog has stated for a long time, do not expect a crash in urban 416 – but years of torpor. – Garth

#145 dharma bum on 09.06.18 at 9:10 am

#35 Alessio

All the homes in Vaughan sold close to asking or much more! You cherry picked a monster mansion. Some dirt on side road.
——————————————————————–

Vaughan is on the verge of increasing in value. The major surface transit improvements currently under construction and the completed direct link to the subway system will be a major boon to the “City Above Toronto”.

Vaughan is essentially now geographically very well positioned as the “heart” of the GTA. Almost dead centre. It borders Toronto “proper” and the number one non-highway artery of Toronto (aka Yonge St.), encompasses Hwy. 400, Hwy. 427, Hwy. 407, and Hwy 7.

Real estate values in the Vaughan area, while prone to market corrections, will remain relatively stable, compared to other less desirable suburban wastelands (i.e., Brampton, Whitby, Ajax, Pickering, Oshawa).

#146 45north on 09.06.18 at 9:35 am

SimplyPut: As rates continue to rise and people realize their debts need to be paid off, that $2 million may become $1.85 million and eventually $1.5 million. But high-end areas make up a small portion of the entire GTA market, where there are thousands of people who cannot afford to carry their flipped homes, empty investment condos or rent out their condos at a loss for too much longer. Especially as it becomes more apparent that prices are falling

The words “may become” and “eventually” give the impression of a slow decline but what if people realize all at once that their debts need to be paid off and they cannot afford to carry their flipped homes etc.? They rush to sell. They act like cattle in a herd. And it’s not like only the sellers are in the herd. The buyers are too. The buyers stop buying.

#147 SimplyPut7 on 09.06.18 at 9:58 am

#129 Howard on 09.06.18 at 4:14 am
#135 Tater on 09.06.18 at 7:40 am
#140 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.06.18 at 8:29 am

I have seen some executive townhouses in better areas of Toronto.

They are usually large like a detached home, with upgraded finishes and a large backyard or roof top garden – sometimes both.

There are not many in the GTA, most of the ones built in the last 2 years are crap. Developers started to cut corners to make more money or save on the rising construction costs. You can see it in the quality of the finished product.

#148 Uncle Bob on 09.06.18 at 10:03 am

It should be emphasized that we have championed ultra-low interest rates for way too long. Inflation is going to hit like a tidal wave and just like the financial collapse of 2008, all the collective bean counters will insert the standard lip-service plug ‘nobody saw it coming’. Let it be known that Uncle Bob sees it coming. You have been warned.

#149 Tater on 09.06.18 at 10:03 am

#104 Smoking Man on 09.05.18 at 10:36 pm
If you’re a ceo of a publicly traded company, you chose sides in this polatized world you’re going to cost your share holders huge.

What is wrong with them? What’s to gain? A better seat at Davos. A George Soros ataboy? Beats me.

Jordan quits Nike board and pulls his air jordans. His dad was vet.

https://trumpbetrayed.us/all/breaking-michael-jordan-resigns-from-the-board-at-nike-takes-air-jordans-with-him/
—————————————————————–
You are fantastically stupid. How you could read this:

“He obtained the patent for the exclusive pump and anti-gravity liquids in 1987. Since then, Air Jordans have sold more than a billion pairs of shoes in literally every country on Earth. There are two pairs floating on the feet of astronauts in space at this very moment.”

And think it was true, is beyond any logical thought.

Jordan hasn’t left Nike, he’s not even on the board, he doesn’t own “Air Jordan” (http://tmsearch.uspto.gov/bin/gate.exe?f=doc&state=4809:468im2.4.1)

For a guy who claims to be a critical thinker, you’re quite quick to swallow BS that fits your preconceptions.

#150 Tater on 09.06.18 at 10:05 am

#142 Victor V on 09.06.18 at 8:50 am
Terence Corcoran: Don’t blame ‘rich’ bankers for the 2008 global crash. Blame socialism

https://business.financialpost.com/opinion/terence-corcoran-dont-blame-rich-bankers-for-the-2008-global-crash-blame-socialism
————————————————————–
Terrance is fantastically wrong. During the subprime bust, subprime borrowers defaulted in lower rates than they did historically. Meanwhile, prime borrower who had loaded up on debt to speculate were the ones who got torched.

#151 Scott on 09.06.18 at 10:22 am

Do you mean real estate isn’t going to
ignore the reversing credit cycle or the inevitable
recession .
But the sales man said prices could never
go down.
Yummy , Bloodbath popcorn.

#152 Smoking Man on 09.06.18 at 10:23 am

Of course it was fake news. It’s in the head line. Glad to see some noticed.

Doesn’t change the fact that in this polarized world. A CEO who choses sides risks losing 1/2 of the market share.

Makes investing tricky was my trade mark drunken take on shit.

#153 James on 09.06.18 at 10:24 am

#127 Smoking Man on 09.06.18 at 1:43 am

169 James on 09.05.18 at 4:02 pm
#112 Smoking Man on 06.08.18 at 12:57 am

Vegas tomorrow dogs. My knights are throwing a huge party. Sucks they lost. I’m happy for Ovy. He deserves it.
Now I don’t have to rip my appt apart looking for my 500 to 1 fifty dollar ticket, that bet on the knights winning the cup.
Ford wins. Justin the girl groper is next to go down.
If in the land of cbc weirdos could not stop Ford. Trump will kill insanity in the mid terms.
Life is getting good.
Periscope in vegas. Action can be followed here.
@SmokingMan
On Linked In
Jim Stojsin.
My friends call me Stoj.
Your serve JohneeBoy. James, Grvey Train..
I’m board.
________________________________________
Hey old man I don’t know what you call yourself AKA Jim Stojsin but I thought you said Roger Waters sucked, education is for losers and your in favour of building a wall with the Trumpster.
Wow did you flip or are you simple an opportunistic yoke hitcher on the Trump Train?
Just do a quick search and viola.
Per Jim Stojsin “And finally, if you want to stop the children of Palestine strapping dynamite to themselves, let them have an education, give them something to hope for.”

TEAR DOWN THE WALL!

https://english.tebyan.net/newindex.aspx?pid=26400

……

Jim Stojsin is a gutless wimp. A good little tax farm slave..His alter ego Smoking Man has taken over his trump key storks for survival.
Jimmy is a good man. Smoking man taught jimmy how to trade forex.
Fire me tomorrow. Wont make a difference .
Someone please send in a shrink for wee Jim Stojsin.
He is nutless.
I finally made the chicken shit a winner.
I’m smoking mans alter ego.
Dr Smoking Man
Phd Herdonomics.
________________________________________
Sure old man whatever, perhaps your wife can help you find Jimmies nuts.

#154 R Vanzo on 09.06.18 at 10:29 am

Data from TOronto and GTA came out today. No crash, no rtorpor, a 4% increase over last month. The party is back. As a housing bear, I got frustrated. There are simply to many new residents coming over and they will keep the party alive.

#155 Howard on 09.06.18 at 10:30 am

Interesting how the shills didn’t mind cherry-picking when citing a condo that sold for $200K over asking in 2016. But now, apparently nobody is allowed to mention examples where property owners lost their shirts because, well, cherry-picking.

#156 SimplyPut7 on 09.06.18 at 11:31 am

#146 45north on 09.06.18 at 9:35 am

There are a few areas of Toronto (e.g. Rosedale, Forest Hill, Bayview Avenue from Lawrence to Steeles, homes near Castle Frank subway station and Casa Loma etc.) that have “old” money or money from self-made multi-millionaires – the type of people who invest with brokerages that demand $10 million as a minimum investment to be accepted as a client.

If a home in those areas were deeply discounted. They would sell in a downturn easily. Parts of Oakville, Mississauga, Markham and Richmond Hill are like that as well.

When $2 million buys a home in Canada that looks similar to a $2 million home in the USA. I think buyers for high-end real estate will come back.

#157 Toni on 09.06.18 at 11:39 am

Which developer is rumoured to be close to bankruptcy?
Won’t this impact all the people who have put down deposits?

#158 Gravy Train on 09.06.18 at 11:45 am

#152 Smoking Man on 09.06.18 at 10:23 am
“Doesn’t change the fact that in this polarized world [a] CEO who cho[o]ses sides risks losing [half] of the market share.” Do you mean a CEO like Donald J. Trump? :)

#159 Mattl on 09.06.18 at 11:53 am

#62 arfmoocat on 09.05.18 at 8:05 pm
#52 FOUR FINGERS WATSON

The parties over in the Smokanagon

All the Albertan’s are selling their summer homes to avoid the speculation tax

They’re tired of the smoke every summer anyways

————————————————————-

I don’t see any evidence of this. In my area on/near the lake there is little inventory and the few homes that came up this year sold in under 30 days at or very near asking price. Kelowna will see downward pressure on prices due to the YVR market imploding but from what I can tell that hasn’t happened yet.

Also, what the Kelowna doomers ignore is that prices in Kelowna didn’t have the same trajectory that YVR prices did. The market was mostly flat forever, then took off in 2016. So it’s only been a 2 year run here….those two years might be given back but I don’t see a huge decline in what are already fairly affordable homes. You can still get a home in Kelowna for under 500, and you can get a lakeview acreage for under 1MM …like the house that just sold on my street – 3500 sqft craftsman, 2+ acres, walk to beach lakeview for under 1MM. Sold at ask, around 30 days.

#160 Gravy Train on 09.06.18 at 11:54 am

#149 Tater on 09.06.18 at 10:03 am
“[…] For a guy who claims to be a critical thinker, you’re quite quick to swallow BS that fits your preconceptions.”
I don’t know that Smokey has ever claimed to be a critical thinker—just a drunken sot. :)

#161 SimplyPut7 on 09.06.18 at 12:01 pm

#145 dharma bum on 09.06.18 at 9:10 am

You do understand we get the sold data right?

Very few homes in Vaughan sell over $1.2 million – the actual sold price not the listed price. There are over 480 homes listed for sale on zolo that want $1.2 million or more. And that doesn’t include the vacant homes that have been removed from MLS because they can’t get the price they want and will wait for next spring to list.

How long will private lenders put up with these speculators? If they have to renew, what will their mortgage rate be? We get leased sale data now too! The lease does not cover the mortgage costs on the houses out there – or in most places in the GTA.

What do you tell the buyer who just moved into their brand new home in the Patterson area of Vaughan, in the cramp, cheaply built townhouse with barely one parking space, looking at the zolo listings and sold data (from sites we won’t mention while TREB is not in compliance) of detached homes that are twice as big and costs 20% less than the townhouses on Thomas Cook Avenue, Carville Woods Circle or Arianna Crescent?

Every interest rate hike must be heartbreaking to these families, and listening to TREB realtors tell the same lies over again that got them stuck in their current situation must not be helping either.

#162 bdwy sktrn on 09.06.18 at 12:02 pm

getting a bad feeling about equities last couple days. leaders breaking down. been a super run.

just unloaded everything. bye bye vfv xaw xiu. (keeping costco of course!)
a 5% pullback would be fine. then i get all my shares back and get to pocket 30k or so.

wish me luck!

#163 Ace Goodheart on 09.06.18 at 12:24 pm

So the official word on the Toronto market is prices are rising as supply is tightening, and we are officially in a recovery:

https://www.thestar.com/business/2018/09/06/home-prices-rise-against-tighter-supply-in-august.html

I am hoping that you are right about the impending Toronto collapse. It has been a while since I went shopping in Toronto for my usual distressed, under priced properties that I like to buy (as everything was simply too expensive). It would be nice to get out there and start picking things up again.

I did not forecast a ‘Toronto collapse.’ But there is no recovery. – Garth

#164 SimplyPut7 on 09.06.18 at 1:16 pm

#97 SimplyPut7 on 09.05.18 at 9:30 pm
#110 MF on 09.05.18 at 10:58 pm

You don’t have to believe me – there’s no hiding what is happening anymore.

As Warren Buffett has stated:
‘You never know who’s swimming naked until the tide goes out’

I too have enjoyed multiculturalism in Canada and understand very well how multi-generational immigrant families gather in one home to raise the next generation and save money for the next family to move out and buy a home of their own.

I also understand there are younger gen-x and older gen-y who have benefited from the interest rate cycle and bought homes that they were able to pay off because they got well paying jobs back when employers were willing to train people. And continue to get jobs over younger gen-y with fancier degrees, but no real world experience.

I have also met many mid-30s to early 40 year olds who don’t remember the last crash, and have used the equity in their homes to buy condo after condo, flipped homes they can’t sell now or decided to become a landlord for the first time and realize they are subsidizing their tenant’s rent.

Canada hasn’t reinvented the wheel. Debt is meant to be paid off – principal and interest, not just interest only payments. There are no rich foreigners coming to rescue these people from the choices they have made. And all of this is starting to unravel as a more conservative federal government may be elected in less than 400 days. The number of immigrants that will be allowed into Canada will probably be cut in half. Which will end the theory that the rich immigrants will come rescue Canadians from their debt problems.

There’s no magical solution: either pay off the debt or declare bankruptcy or file a consumer proposal.

#165 Stan Brooks on 09.06.18 at 1:38 pm


#154 R Vanzo on 09.06.18 at 10:29 am
Data from TOronto and GTA came out today. No crash, no rtorpor, a 4% increase over last month. The party is back. As a housing bear, I got frustrated. There are simply to many new residents coming over and they will keep the party alive.

They won’t. GTA is full with poor people with debt. Nobody in their right mind will buy in this place at current valuations.

Here is the official warning:

NAFTA deal won’t stop Canadian economic slowdown: CIBC

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/nafta-deal-wont-stop-canadian-economic-slowdown-cibc-164921196.html

“Canadian housing, where affordability is already stretched in many places, will become even more costly for many buyers,” Mendes said. “Both housing and consumption will no longer be able to carry the Canadian economy on their backs come 2020.”

We are falling from the 20th floor and just passed the 2nd floor. The ground is in clear sight and there is no way to levitate back and avoid the impact. Or dig quickly a deeper hall.
So brace for it, it will be a nightmare that you will remember forever.

But if you have doubts, go ahead and buy.

In just a year when everyone’s naked behind is exposed, you would be wondering what exactly forced you to make that purchase. FOMO.

I am kind of sick and tired of all this political correctness: 416 will moderate but won’t crash, blah blah blah.

My view: 416 will crash horrendously. People here have no money, small salaries, are overtaxed, have no investments and are house poor.

Nothing can justify 5-6 times prices increase that we saw in the last 1.5 decades.

The worse decline in Ireland’s and Japan’s real estate bubble crashes was exactly in the big cities.

Vancouver and Toronto/GTA are done. 3-4 times decline in real terms is baked in and even with the loonie going down we could see 60-70 % decline in nominal values.

No? Just wait.

=======================

#133 Wrk.dover on 09.06.18 at 6:46 am

You are absolutely correct, I am low balling inflation numbers in order to be credible.

GT is doing the same with his statements on ‘no crash in Toronto/416’ as any other statement will face complete rejection and lack of ‘credibility’ acusation by the sheeple.

This is like dealing with underdeveloped but sensitive (and I almost forgot): SOPHISTICATED children who have to be spoon fed the truth as full disclosure of reality will overwhelm them.

==================================

#112 SoggyShorts on 09.05.18 at 11:05 pm

Go and discover/calculate inflation yourself, use your brains and see how much electricity (2 times increase in 3 years), gas, food (grocery, food courts, restaurants), rent (35-40 % increase in GTA lately in just 2-3 years) have increased.

For example: Jimmy the Greek roast chicken dinner increased from $ 3.99/4.49 to $ 8.99 in less than 10 years with 30 % reduction in size of the meal. For the change in quality I dare not to elaborate on.

So use you brains and make conclusions for yourself.

In a way I agree that psychological aspect and euphoria in housing is already all gone/used up and now the hard stuff starts, the inevitable and inescapable crash, there is no way to avoid or mitigate that.

The fallout from that will be unprecedented though, a clear 100 % inflationary depression for quite some time, 1.5 – 2 decades in my view.

That outcome is not negotiable, subject to arguments or tantrums, rights or wishes or real estate cartel disinformation.

#166 Shortymac on 09.06.18 at 1:41 pm

House down the street from me went from almost 800k, to 700k to 750k over the past 3 months. Someone thinks it’s 2016 still.

It’s Rexdale FFS:

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/19810218/29-HADRIAN-DR-Toronto-Ontario-M9W1V5-Elms-Old-Rexdale

#167 Stan Brooks on 09.06.18 at 1:50 pm

Ah, and he actually never ever had a real crash in 2008-2009, we just deferred it by a decade with the ultra low rates and all the additional borrowing that fueled all the bubbles.
Which is now over. Like the drunk to death getting few extra bottles of ‘fuel’ in order to delay the inevitable severe hangover.

What is worse is that it was a choice made by the elite despite all the warnings and examples from 2008,
what made it ever worse was all that bragging: we are better, we have the safest financial system, our economy is strongest and even some former ministers giving advise to the world/European on how to manage their affairs.

Now we will see how much worse we are than Italy or Spain and probably in the league of Greece in terms of debt and economy, but with much worse weather.

#168 Marco on 09.06.18 at 1:57 pm

Dog Ford and Tim Hudak will find the way to avoid real estate meltdown by nixing so called green belt around Turdonto….

#169 SoggyShorts on 09.06.18 at 2:06 pm

#133 Wrk.dover on 09.06.18 at 6:46 am
#125 SoggyShorts on 09.06.18 at 1:27 am

I’ll tell you right now Buddy, Stan Brooks is low balling the inflation numbers to sound credible in reality.

*******************
So now you’re saying it’s more than 10%, and has been for a while? Why isn’t this the only thing anyone is talking about?
I mean losing 50% of your purchasing power every few years would surely be noticed?
Wouldn’t 100% of those people who are “1 paycheck from failure” go hungry after 1 year of 10% inflation?

To answer your specific questions:
Did the cost of owning a home go down along with my rent?
No, but the cost of buying a home did, so there is up and down.
Did the cost of your investments (price per share) go up?Yes, but not at an average of “over 10%” the past 3 years. (would have been close but this year is a bit of a downer)
Vehicle repairs?went up about 5% at some point for a full service, but only once in the past 4 years.
Maybe I’m lucky there? Also the last truck I bought for my company was 4K lower sticker price (5k lower paid) than the one I bought 5 years ago, which wipes out that increase in service costs by a lot.
Caribbean vacations?
We only do 2 weeks down south at a princess resort, and the rest of our travel is usually elsewhere, but no, I have not found an increase in prices at all. Admittedly this might simply be because we’re super flexible and can always book during a sale.

Yes, some things have gone up, but others have not, or have even decreased, so the average is what matters. (weighted)
Like I said, maybe my weightings and expenses are totally different from Canada as a whole, but I just don’t see how the weighted price of everything is going up on average by over 10% without anyone noticing.

#170 Stan Brooks on 09.06.18 at 2:21 pm


#169 SoggyShorts on 09.06.18 at 2:06 pm

Yes, some things have gone up, but others have not, or have even decreased, so the average is what matters. (weighted)
Like I said, maybe my weightings and expenses are totally different from Canada as a whole, but I just don’t see how the weighted price of everything is going up on average by over 10% without anyone noticing.

Nobody noticing inflation?

The number of people scavenging the garbage bins in GTA has significantly increased, everyone I know is bargain shopping, spending pretty much their weekends and evenings on that, to save a few bucks.
That switch of behavior happened in the last 2-3 years.

You have not noticed the higher grocery prices, higher gas prices, higher electricity prices?

What has gone down and how much of it you consume?
Private schools tuition increased by 50 % in the last 4 years.

Are you on vegetation? The only thing potentially declining is pot.

#171 Renter's Revenge! on 09.06.18 at 2:21 pm

Turdonto, meet plunger.

#172 bdwy sktrn on 09.06.18 at 2:24 pm

the nice mail girl was just here.

she brought the new converse runners for the kid i ordered 18 hours ago.
free delivery 2-5 days it said. it lied.
saves much time and a bit of gas too.
this helps with inflation, a bit.

was not amazon this time but they are same superfast delivery

amazon is DEFLATION on hundreds of millions of items.

#173 Ian on 09.06.18 at 2:36 pm

I was wondering when we would see some hard core declines like this. This is absolutely breathtaking.

Going to get a lot worse too!

Can’t wait until all that TRANSPARENT DATA is out!

#174 Slowly Boiling Frogs on 09.06.18 at 2:39 pm

#168 Marco on 09.06.18 at 1:57 pm

Dog Ford and Tim Hudak will find the way to avoid real estate meltdown by nixing so called green belt around Turdonto….
—————————————————-
You do realize that if they really did nix the green belt and started building like crazy it would add to the supply and send prices down throughout the GTA much faster than anything happening right now.

#175 Linda on 09.06.18 at 3:38 pm

I wonder if ‘Reader’ wrote the Sept 6 headline in the G&M? ‘Toronto RE sputters back to life’ that claims sales & prices have gone up for August 2018? For sure Reader does not seem to like seeing any evidence of price declines & is quick to point out highly desirable areas have not declined in value. Fair enough, but doesn’t invalidate the evidence that people are indeed selling for less than list.

#176 232 on 09.06.18 at 3:59 pm

Sellers of the $1 million monster mess wrote the following review to KBK Studios Inc., one year ago. I wonder if they still feel the same

“Our company is called Luxury Holmes we gave our personal designs to build our home, To Kyle our Architect he has done an amazing job to make it happen, He is a wonderful person to work with extremely calm & very professional. I would definitely recommend his company to others.”

#177 T on 09.06.18 at 4:12 pm

#110 MF on 09.05.18 at 10:58 pm

Why are you so angry? Relax MF.

And listen to those with experience beyond yours. The tide is going out, it’s not different this time, end of story.

#178 The Real Mark on 09.06.18 at 4:26 pm

“Inflation is going to hit like a tidal wave and just like the financial collapse of 2008,”

Inflation is basically impossible in an economy pickled with debt. Especially adjustable rate debt, which we all know is ubiquitous in the Canadian economy. The moment lenders detect any slightest bit of inflation, the lending disappears.

Inflation is possible if an economy is mostly financed for the long term (which Canada and the USA is clearly not), or if there’s no financing at all and there’s a lot of central bank money printing (the Weimar scenario). But the current structure of the Canadian economy implies that deflation, and particularly, undesirable deflation, is far more likely. Especially with prices probably starting to trend beneath their 2013 apex levels in the major cities that have thus far hung on.

#179 IHCTD9 on 09.06.18 at 4:27 pm

#172 bdwy sktrn on 09.06.18 at 2:24 pm
the nice mail girl was just here.

she brought the new converse runners for the kid i ordered 18 hours ago.
free delivery 2-5 days it said. it lied.
saves much time and a bit of gas too.
this helps with inflation, a bit.

was not amazon this time but they are same superfast delivery

amazon is DEFLATION on hundreds of millions of items.
___

Yep. It’s going to keep getting cheaper too – until we have robots making robots where prices will start to level out.

In fact, we might even start manufacturing our own personal stuff some day when 3D printers have another 50 years of advancement under their belts.

#180 Tom Santiago on 09.06.18 at 4:35 pm

Socialism is the cancer of society and that has been proven over and over.

I know, I am from Chile.

#181 april on 09.06.18 at 4:57 pm

#154- BS.

#182 noyb on 09.07.18 at 9:19 am

#104 Smoking Man on 09.05.18 at 10:36 pm

If you’re a ceo of a publicly traded company, you chose sides in this polatized world you’re going to cost your share holders huge.

What is wrong with them? What’s to gain? A better seat at Davos. A George Soros ataboy? Beats me.

Jordan quits Nike board and pulls his air jordans. His dad was vet.

https://trumpbetrayed.us/all/breaking-michael-jordan-resigns-from-the-board-at-nike-takes-air-jordans-with-him/

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Stop spreading fake news with fake website you dotard.