The pups

It’s probably fake news, but worth noting. As the final weekend of the summer unfolded a new survey commissioned by a major, shameless, house-pumping, propagandistic marketing org that shall remain nameless (Re/Max), confirms a sad fact. The children are now infected.

We’re talking Gen Z here – the 18-to-24 crowd – still years away from careers, stable incomes or the sad grind into middle age, obligation and financial struggle. So are most of them looking forward to travel, freedom, romance, adventure and discovery?

Nah. Of course not. They want to turn into their parents. The Leger poll found 51% of Zers in Vancouver are focused on becoming homeowners “within the next few years.” The numbers are similar, but slightly less, for the GTA. And the young pups are already worrying about amortization, property taxes and the impact of monetary policy. This house thing has caused 71% of those in YVR and 75% in the 6ix to become, “stressed when thinking about buying a home.”

Who cares? Re/Max, of course. This is music to marketers’ ears. There are apparently scads of these people, set to outnumber Millennials within a year. Hopefully this new crop will rebel against rampant tats, nose hardware, lumberjack beards and manbuns. (Sometimes I miss goth and guyliner.) Anyway, with a big, house-horny cohort coming down the pipe, realtors hope for lots of action as the wrinklies cash out and the virginal set moves in.

Is this likely?

Sure, but only if real estate prices revert to the mean – pushed down by normalized interest rates, a mountain of household debt, escalating taxes and tight government regs. All of those will continue to influence values in the years ahead. After all, if the buyers next in line – the moisters now and the pups behind them – have scant savings and less credit, how can $1.2 million urban semis and seven-figure particleboard suburban McMansions exist?

They can’t. The market must continue its melt. Don’t fall for the Re/Max BS.

But you can, and should, lament for the children. So young and yet so pooched.

$    $    $

We had a good chat here this past week about FIRE, the financial-independence and retire-early movement that’s caught the attention of many 30-year-olds who hate their jobs. Lots of people decided I’m a patronizing dino for expressing reservations about the ability (or wisdom) of people retiring at 35. Obviously for an entire generation (or big chunks of it) the notion of a career path is kaput. In a gig economy, employees are loyal to their values, not their employers. It can make for a tough, and short, workplace relationship.

I referenced my two former clients (one code-named FIREcracker) who are central to this movement and squished their bank careers when they achieved a seven-figure portfolio. Of course, I was not slavishly supportive, which wounded them considerably. (Have you ever tried to criticize a moister employee??)

Once they recovered, I received this note:

Always an honour to be featured on your blog. I get a kick out of it every time.

Out of curiosity, what do you think of the FIRE movement that we’re now part of? You seem suspicious/hostile to it for some reason, and that’s fine. You’re entitled to your opinion, but I thought you’d be for it since it encourages people to save their money and invest it rather than spend it on a house.

Or has it generated a flood of emails from annoying millenials with no money expecting to retire in their 30’s that’s clogging up your inbox?

In short, the FIRE movement is worthy in preaching frugality, saving, investing and financial literacy. How can you dis any of that? Most people in this nation suck at managing money and will pay a large price for their sloth, emotionalism and inattention. And as this blog continually points out, we’ve become a country where a one-asset strategy is mainstream. The result is record house prices, record debt and historic levels of risk. No, this will not turn out well.

But, yeah, the FIRE movement and my clients’ championing of it, has resulted in massively unrealistic expectations on the part of some people who think DIY investing is simple, that they can live on twenty grand a year for the rest of their lives or that work-for-pay cannot be enriching, absorbing and fulfilling. Besides, who’s gonna buy all the Audis and Wifi-enabled garage door openers? The economy hates the FIRE people.

But let’s leave this on a constructive note. Here’s blog dog Amanda. She may be a labour organizer, but I still like her:

Longtime reader, please let me start by saying thank you for taking the time to share you knowledge.

I thought I would provide a more moderate counterpoint to the cringe-worthy FIRE movement letters you presented earlier this week. I’m early/mid 30’s living in Toronto with a husband, toddler, and a profusely hair dog, no debt, happily renting. Over the past 8 years I’ve diligently saved and invested (while also enjoying life) building up a nice nest egg that will hit seven figures before our 40th birthdays.

While the money certainly isn’t enough to retire on, it allows my husband to work a less demanding job that doesn’t involve shift-work, and it provides me with the safety net I need to do what I love. I’m a labour activist (love it or hate it I’m not asking for approval) and though I’m highly skilled and doing well professionally I’m sure you can imagine that this predilection impacts my overall employability. Our “financial independence” money ensures that if things go south and I end up having to work at a lower paying job our savings yield can make up the difference.

Rather than seeing FIRE as all or nothing, look at it as a way to work on your own terms. Part-time hours, a lower paying field, starting a business, the options are limitless. Early financial independence sucks as a retirement strategy but it’s an amazing investment in flexibility and a way to do what you love while still enjoying a reasonably comfortable standard of living. As you always say time is the most valuable (and fleeting) thing that any of us has…an investment in that is priceless.

Thank you,
Amanda

About the picture: From John Taylor – “Hi Garth, thought you might like this dog sign. Got it from my dad’s basement; he has been rescuing dogs for decades, people who have a dog and are no longer able to take care of it or people who have abandoned dogs, and his dogs have turned out to have some of the nicest personalities, dog or human. ( he currently has an old Rottweiler, who is the gentlest dog I’ve ever seen, and is a nanny for my kids when they visit there in the summer.)
He has 40 acres of beautiful land in Alberta, Aspen Parkland, and over the decades has planted a spruce tree over the grave of every dog has taken care of, who is passed away under his care, there are now dozens and dozens of spruce trees in an area where there are absolutely none naturally.”

 

105 comments ↓

#1 Ron K on 08.31.18 at 5:28 pm

(August 31, 2018)

Maxime Bernier: Why my new political movement? Because Canada has been hijacked

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/maxime-bernier-why-my-new-political-movement-because-canada-has-been-hijacked

#2 TheDood on 08.31.18 at 5:29 pm

Great post today, am happy some younger people have figured out their financial futures on their own terms, instead of being served a dud later in life.

“…survey commissioned by a major, shameless, house-pumping, propagandistic marketing org that shall remain nameless (Re/Max)”
What can you say, except the RE industry in Canada is pure dirtball.

#3 ByeByeVan on 08.31.18 at 5:35 pm

The trouble with Vancouverite Z’s is that they are currently living in their parents basements (and have been since forever). With rent prices that are out of reach for many… and serious renovictions and evictions happening across the city every day, many see the dream of ownership as not just a dream–– but the only way to live a life on their own terms. I know many of these kids. Super sad

#4 Grateful Boomer on 08.31.18 at 5:53 pm

Thanks for sharing the story behind today’s photo. Loved it

#5 r1200c on 08.31.18 at 5:54 pm

Actually surprised this wasn’t a post about the Trans Mountain court ruling…

It would have been interesting to hear your take on what happens next…

Nothing. The T2 regime is too invested in this for it not to proceed. – Garth

#6 FIRE is a symptom on 08.31.18 at 5:55 pm

The causes that 30 year olds plan for early retirement and subscribe to FIRE are plenty. On the surface it sounds like the kids are too lazy to work until they keel over or they don’t invest enough time to finish the work race. But if their economy would allow to make long term plans, they might feel more inclined to work long term. Don’t blame them for actually doing the research and having a strategy for their lives.

Job security past age 45 is a guessing game. After 50 most employers are looking at replacement with fresh blood. Retirement plans are hit and miss, mostly miss. The 30 y/o can see that there’s nothing in the kitty when it’s their turn.

Working is stressful and causes unhealthy lifestyles. Hard labor and longevity are not necessarily mutually exclusive but the downside and potential health risks when working long hours, little sleep, long commutes etc. are obvious.

Buying a house or condo ties them down. Their savings are gone into four walls that may turn into a mortgage prison.

Nomadic lifestyles are all the rage now. Lots of work can be had all over the globe. English is the most common language for global professional nomads. Canada is a safe place for the most part but at young age, that means nothing when the world is literally your oyster.

The money saved and invested is working for the FIRE community. Nobody ever fully retires at an early age. They will find something to do with their time, maybe start a business or get into politics. Take time training for a sport they love, investing time into the arts or any other hobby when the eyesight is still near perfect and the mind is sharp.

I totally get it and I wish I had started sooner. Well, at 50 it’s not too late. Living 3 years as FIRE executive of our family and loving it.

#7 Reximus on 08.31.18 at 5:59 pm

GT great job on the building in NS..but what is it’s purpose? a new RJ office in Lunenburg…is that logical? I love that place but it doesn’t seem to be, ummm prosperous

My practice is national, not local. So why spend all year on Bay Street? – Garth

#8 LJ on 08.31.18 at 6:01 pm

Amanda (above) is one of the few who actually got what it means to work your butt off when you’re young, so you can enjoy life and do what you want and enjoy to do for a living, when you get older.

However, first one has to put in the time and effort to get over that hump. And, believe me, it’s not a cakewalk.

Start young and never give up!!!

#9 SmarterSquirrel on 08.31.18 at 6:01 pm

Garth,

I agree with Amanda’s approach. I’ve been saving and investing for years to create my own “pension plan”. Then one day I was let go from my job, and instead of having to hurry and find any job just to get income coming in, I realized I had enough coming in from my investments to take time off and enjoy my time off. I’ve been working or studying non stop since I was a kid so having a year off to enjoy the world is a wonderful thing. Like many people I decided to also share what I know about saving and investing with a blog, mine is SmarterSquirrel.com. But that’s more a fun hobby for me rather than a business. Once the weather gets colder I’ll look to find some stimulating work again. It’s just nice to have no financial stress and to be able to enjoy a year off.

#10 Zapstrap on 08.31.18 at 6:04 pm

What comes after Gen Z?

#11 espressobob on 08.31.18 at 6:06 pm

Investing is a subject like any other. You get out what you put in. Many chase gains and engage in commodity or sector plays not realizing the risk until it’s too late, panic sell and allow the markets to play them. Bummer.

A good globally diversified portfolio is that next rung up that delivers. Doesn’t have to be perfect. Like horseshoes and hand grenades close counts.

Early retirement for most of us is a pipedream.

#12 Reximus on 08.31.18 at 6:07 pm

My practice is national, not local. So why spend all year on Bay Street? – Garth

===

So you’re gonna retire there… Me too!

#13 LP on 08.31.18 at 6:09 pm

To Mr. Taylor Sr.

Thanks so much for what you do!

F71ON

#14 Smart outlook on 08.31.18 at 6:12 pm

That labour activist has a smart outlook. We all need to do something. My wife and I are financially independent, in our early 60’s. My wife rescues dogs (5 this year) and finds them homes. I still consult but instead of dealing with clients from hell, I choose to work for poeiple I like doing things that I want to do. Life is good.

#15 Reximus on 08.31.18 at 6:20 pm

My wife rescues dogs (5 this year)

—-
Bless you

#16 Mattl on 08.31.18 at 6:22 pm

I’m shocked that you’re shocked that younger generations of Canadians want to own RE. It is a proven way for the middle class to get ahead. And there is no conflict between travel, romance and home ownership. You yourself are a RE junky, albeit one with more
money then most.

As if a good life is defined by moving from cdn city to city, living in someone elses home, paying 40k a year in rent.

And travel? Walk the beach in Maui, find a few Canadians, and ask them if they rent or own back home. Wanna bet what the majority of them say? As of the worlds best beaches are full of middle class Canadian renters. Thai hostels – if thats your version of travel and freedom have at er.

#17 Wallflower on 08.31.18 at 6:23 pm

Dog-sitting this weekend. Doogies rock! Best.

#18 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 08.31.18 at 6:31 pm

Nothing. The T2 regime is too invested in this for it not to proceed. – Garth
………………………………..

I hope you are right cuz oil plays a big part in paying for our schools, hospitals, and infrastructure. But it could take years to accomplish, and in the meantime the message we send to the rest of the world is that Canada is NOT open for business. We are really gonna suffer if we get a poor NAFTA deal.

#19 Mattl on 08.31.18 at 6:42 pm

Oh, and the shift worker and activist that are going to hit 7 figures before 40? 100% they made a large portion of that on RE. In fact almost all the letters you recieve of fat net worth under 40s, large chunk came from a home or home sale.

So why is it surprising that youngsters want to buy RE? There is no path to comfy retirement contributing from a median cdn income and returning 6 points after fees. Median family income is 70ish in major cities and rent for a family home is 20-40k. So how again do families save, travel, romance etc? Math is hard, the numbers don’t work and you can’t blame median income families for swinging for the RE fence.

Renting is for the the not so well to do and the well to do, paying rent into your 70s for a median income family is suicide.

#20 Another Millenial on 08.31.18 at 6:58 pm

I decided not to wade into the discussion yesterday, and I didn’t need to. Amanda swooped in with the perfect explaination.

My wife and I are a few years younger than Amanda and Hubs. We both busted our butts in mega-corp engineering jobs for the last six or seven years; we lived a great life while banking a portfolio large enough to cover basic rent, groceries, and an old car. Now we’re bulletproof. This year we are downshifting into a shared remote consulting gig and starting our own company.

What’s good in life? Garth’s got it right. Friends and family, exciting new adventures and projects (yes, work can provide both!). Some of the best and most worthwhile adventures don’t play all that well on IG.

#21 Evangeline on 08.31.18 at 6:59 pm

((He has 40 acres of beautiful land in Alberta, Aspen Parkland, and over the decades has planted a spruce tree over the grave of every dog has taken care of, who is passed away under his care, there are now dozens and dozens of spruce trees in an area where there are absolutely none naturally.))

That is a book worthy story, imo. It brought a tear to my eye.

#22 Muttley O'Toole on 08.31.18 at 7:03 pm

A Tale of 4 T’s (or Shakespeare would have dined out on this for months).
First T – last week Australian liberal party (conservatives) punted their prime minister, “Tin-Ear Turnbull” as he was too far to the left. So, throwing all the toys out of the cot,he resigned from Parliament and exited stage left.
Second T – following his triumphant tour of India – and who could forget his dancing entrance stage left, to the dinner with sycophants (wince!) – Prime Minister Trudeau followed up by dissing Trump by tweet.Payback today as Canada faces its NAFTA disembowelment – tell me why would Justin try to make an issue of gender in trade talks? Another mistake was bringing his dancing pumps to a knock-down fight with a construction worker from New York.
Yes, uneasy lies the head that wears the crown as the tumbril trundles the cobblestones of Ottawa.
Third T – like a blazing comet across the firmament DJ Trump bestrides the political world like a colossus – adored by millions of Americans (and a huge following of conservatives around the world as a little research will show). Hated by the establishment, soon to turn to fear, as he peels back the corruption onion of Washington layer by layer. His race is not yet run but our world is forever changed.
Fourth T – take a bow Garth Turner. Punted by his political masters to the political gutter, like a phoenix he arose to grasp the nettle of reality and build a successful life sans politics. Not for him the cry of “Canada owes me” – no, with grit, humor & hard work he has built a very successful life and dare I say it, blog with a huge adoring following. (A bit of poetic license has to be allowed as the rubber bands of a story are stretched to make it interesting.)
Sometimes in my wild erratic fancy I picture Garth as a benign dictator making Canada great again, accompanied by his trusty sidekick Smoking Man.

#23 Until adults do their job in Canada... on 08.31.18 at 7:06 pm

…tax free RE gains will continue in a criminal way that everybody thinks is okay.

The flipping game has spread everywhere, because where else can you make 100K for holding a contact for a couple of months with 20K down?

I think the market will just eventually exhaust itself. In the meantime, lots of tax free fraud money for the players.

#24 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 08.31.18 at 7:07 pm

The National Energy Board has ordered construction on the Trans Mountain pipeline to stop, a day after the Federal Court of Appeal quashed the approval of the project and nullified the NEB certificate.
Experts say the Federal Court of Appeal’s decision to quash Canada’s approval of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion will likely delay the project for years.
The decision means the National Energy Board must conduct a new review of the impacts of increased tanker traffic on the marine environment and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government must consult more meaningfully with First Nations.

#25 ImGonnaBeSick on 08.31.18 at 7:08 pm

#10 Zapstrap – obviously nothing since the whole world is going to burst into a ball of flame in 2030, oh wait.. 2035 now.

#26 MF on 08.31.18 at 7:20 pm

#19 Mattl on 08.31.18 at 6:42 pm

Exactly.

We shouldn’t blame people for being attracted to RE. It’s destroyed renting and saving over the past 10-15 years…and that’s with the longest equity bull market in history. This is for people starting out, not people who had money to invest in the market bottom in 2009 and ride the QE driven fake bull market upwards.

People who started with RE have done well. Really well.

Plus, anyone who has had a huge windfall to invest and live off interest with has usually made most of it from RE.

The fact remains that renting is crappy. It’s too expensive and eats too much into the savings that are needed to invest to “get ahead”.

Lol @ those who thought Gen Z were some ultra conservative morally superior generation to we Gen Y’s. Same crap.

MF

#27 Re., Amanda on 08.31.18 at 7:27 pm

You nailed it . Great letter . Thank you for sharing

#28 Shawn Allen on 08.31.18 at 7:32 pm

Fire The National Energy Board?

What has it accomplished for its huge costs in the past 10 years?

#29 MF on 08.31.18 at 7:33 pm

#6 FIRE is a symptom on 08.31.18 at 5:55 pm

Agreed.

Social media is also adding to the frustration.

Take this blog for example. If you were to believe all the fake E-stats you would assume that every 30 year old makes 100k/year and has 500k-1.5 mil in the bank.

…adding to the frustration.

MF

#30 arfmoocat on 08.31.18 at 7:38 pm

Great write Rex, you nailed it.

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/rex-murphy-how-much-more-can-canadians-ask-alberta-to-take

#31 Nonplused on 08.31.18 at 7:44 pm

I agree with Amanda, nothing beats having a million in the bank by the time you are 40, for those who can do it.

My contention with FIRE is that a million is not enough to retire on at 30, unless you want to live in a tent. It does buy you a lot of freedom though.

#6 FIRE is a symptom is correct that working past 45 or 50 is a guessing game. The layoffs targeting this age group in Calgary when the oil recession started were extreme. I know many people in this age range that will probably never work in their former profession again. Even if the oil patch recovers, there are plenty of new grads coming out of the UofC every year who will get the new jobs. The lesson to be learned here is avoid cyclical industries if you can, except they all seem to be cyclical now. Even a wonder-child like RIM had a relatively short lifespan before Apple and Google ate their market up. Apple itself is a “back from the grave” story but to think they’ll be at the top forever is probably wishful thinking. The iGadget market is probably saturated at this point so replacements are now their market and their biggest competitor is the very hardware they’ve already sold. There is that crowd out there that has to have a new phone every time a new model comes out but that isn’t me.

The problem with jobs is that if you aren’t something fairly universal like a plumber or an electrician, you run the risk of specialization. For example there was a story around here about a head ski-patroller at a resort, who got fired because he removed lift privileges from the wrong VIP for skiing on a closed run. Other reasons were cited by the employer but the 2 events occurred very close together. What was he going to do? The problem he faced is that now unemployed all the other ski resorts already have a head patroller and turnover for that position is pretty slow. Sure someone retires now and again but that resort already has home grown replacements waiting in the wing.

Specialized jobs always pay the best, but they also run the highest risk of becoming obsolete or just plain “aging” out the employees to early retirement aka unemployment at 50. So save the extra cash. You very well might need it later.

The other problem the 50+ crowd has, is that their “sponsors” I like to call them, the people they’ve worked for and with for 25 years, are retiring. Maybe they’ve gotten laid off too but decided to just retire. Well, what happens then is that here you are at 50 looking for work but your “network”, which is important in the corporate world, all the 55 and 60 year old folks you used to work for, are all out at the golf course.

I read an article recently describing how people have “winning streaks” in their careers just like athletes and teams do, sometimes more than one, most times not. If you are on a winning streak, save your money. It might not last. I knew Brian Hunter (Amaranth) personally back in the day. Not closely, but by name and we’d had the odd beer together. Classic example of “here today, gone tomorrow”. The Wikipedia description isn’t exactly what happened, I have some more information on that than what has been posted. But the details don’t matter, what matters is to understand that the sun doesn’t shine every day.

#32 Freebird on 08.31.18 at 7:45 pm

Agree with Amanda. Life is rarely black and white so a moderate view makes great sense. Our future lies in the hands of the young so let’s ignore the fairly predictable finger pointing to those older and support them in succeeding. We all win.

Also love the dog rescue in Alberta by John Taylor’s dad. The tree planting reminded me of my dad planting a tree in my parent’s backyard where he lovingly and carefully buried our (his) husky. It was only a few years before his own passing. No doubt he’s still making her home made meals and talking life w/her. Thanks for the story John and to your dad. Happy long weekend.

#33 Renter's Revenge! on 08.31.18 at 7:57 pm

Isn’t amazing that we live in a society where everybody has the opportunity to retire at 30 if they do the right things?

By the way, what comes after Gen Z? Or is nobody having kids anymore?

#34 BC Interior on 08.31.18 at 7:59 pm

Friends of mine just divorced after 16 years. All they have in assets is home equity. Didn’t save a dime elsewhere, even with a 180k gross annual household income.

#35 SimplyPut7 on 08.31.18 at 8:05 pm

Gen-Z doesn’t care about housing, they want to be the next social media star making millions from their parents’ basement playing the latest video game, showing the latest hairstyle or makeup trends, or “reacting” to videoes someone else posted.

The ones who have started to work, realize it’s not as great and as easy to change the world as their teachers and parents told them it would be. They are obsessed with FIRE. I had lunch with co-workers in their 20s and 30s today, they spent a good portion of the lunchtime calculating how many years would they need to work until they qualify for early retirement.

The young people who used to have FOMO, are starting to see prices fall drastically and are either choosy about what they want to buy or have lost interest in the housing market and are now, trying to figure out where is the cheapest place to live once they achieve FIRE.

I will state it again, there is no one coming to rescue the boomers and Gen Xers from all of the investment condos they are building in major cities across Canada. Young people would rather live in their parents’ basement, they get at least 1000 sq ft living space for free versus paying to live in a 500 sq ft condo asking for $1800 a month.

#36 jess on 08.31.18 at 8:10 pm

wittingly straw buyer

This is the first time the Justice Department has publicly charged a person for helping a foreigner secretly funnel money into a Trump political event. Under his deal with prosecutors, Patten is charged only with one criminal count. He faces a maximum of five years in prison and a $250,000 fine for the felony charge. A sentencing date has not been set.
Patten sought tickets to Trump’s inauguration on behalf of an unnamed prominent Ukrainian oligarch, according to court documents released Friday, ultimately paying $50,000 for four tickets. Patten used another American as a “straw purchaser,” funneling the Ukrainian’s money secretly to the inaugural committee through a Cypriot bank account.”

#37 Jungle on 08.31.18 at 8:18 pm

Gen z will not see a melt in RE in the gta.. not going to happen. There grandma and grandpa passing BIG inheritance from RE.

RE too desired in the GTA, you cannot win the game by renting anymore. The demand is simply too strong due to may reasons beyond fundamental bias.

There is still a chance to get in: east gta. Get in before its too late. Nobody has every regretted it over the long term- except those who didn’t get in.

#38 Danny on 08.31.18 at 8:29 pm

Garth well said: “The market must continue its melt. Don’t fall for the Re/Max BS.”….can I add Balls too?

Yes the real estate gang…cause the anxiety…raise prices to all time high..( of course since fees are a percentage of price )….and then say there is anxiety….they make the problem and then they say there is a problem…. Balls.

Although is it really any different than the Ontario Government with Mike Harris and his then apprentices now running the Government…caused the Mega City dysfunctional council and now saying it doesn’t work.

Cause the problem…..then say many years later its a problem.

See real estate and Ontario Conservatives….same tactic of public relations….Balls.

I forgot Real Estate….Developers…slum landlords….are the Conservatives Party in Ontario.

So don’t expect the real estate board will open ordinary people to their statistics on house sales…….unless of course the Courts grow……Balls!

#39 So glad I sold on 08.31.18 at 8:34 pm

A friend of mine whose daughter is going to Wales to finish her degree was questioned numerous times at the Credit Union regarding accessing funds from her resp for this. She did have all of the documentation regarding where she will be attending, but apparently some other students are wanting to have access to all of their money in their resp. Just wondering if the plans for the other students was to use that money for a down payment instead?

#40 SoggyShorts on 08.31.18 at 8:52 pm

#19 Mattl on 08.31.18 at 6:42 pm
Median family income is 70ish in major cities and rent for a family home is 20-40k.

****************************************
If you are making 70K as a family and want to live in a neighbourhood where rent is 40K….you are screwed.
No way in hell can you buy a house in that area anyways, so the rent vs buy argument is rather moot.
Seriously, if you are making close to minimum wage, you should be in a flop house with 5 other dudes saving cash while you figure out how to do better, not looking for a house to raise a family in in the most expensive markets in the country.

#26 MF on 08.31.18 at 7:20 pm
#19 Mattl on 08.31.18 at 6:42 pm

Exactly.

We shouldn’t blame people for being attracted to RE. It’s destroyed renting and saving over the past 10-15 years
*************************
It’s beat out renting in 2 markets where 75% of Canadians don’t live, and with no guarantee of doing so again for the next 10-15 years.

It’s been proven again and again on this blog(and dozens of others) that you can rent the same place for less and invest the difference to come out ahead.*
The problem is discipline–you actually have to invest the difference

*yes, buying beats renting with 30% y/y gains, but then picking weed stocks or buying bitcoin at the right moment wins too.

For mostCanadians inmostmarkets inmostsituations, renting + investing is the best choice.

#41 TheDood on 08.31.18 at 9:09 pm

#16 Mattl on 08.31.18 at 6:22 pm
I’m shocked that you’re shocked that younger generations of Canadians want to own RE. It is a proven way for the middle class to get ahead. And there is no conflict between travel, romance and home ownership. You yourself are a RE junky, albeit one with more
money then most.

As if a good life is defined by moving from cdn city to city, living in someone elses home, paying 40k a year in rent.

And travel? Walk the beach in Maui, find a few Canadians, and ask them if they rent or own back home. Wanna bet what the majority of them say? As of the worlds best beaches are full of middle class Canadian renters. Thai hostels – if thats your version of travel and freedom have at er.
____________________________________

Homeownership WAS a proven way for the middle class to get ahead – 15 or 20 years ago. What’s your definition of getting ahead anyways?

If you’re TFSAs and RRSPs are bursting at the seams then it might make sense to consider ownership after you’ve socked away a few hundred k.

18-24 year old kids shouldn’t be considering ownership unless they’ve got a 6 figure, growing portfolio first.

Only a Canadian would ask such questions on a beach in Maui.

#42 Dee on 08.31.18 at 9:09 pm

here is still a chance to get in: east gta. Get in before its too late. Nobody has every regretted it over the long term- except those who didn’t get in.

—————-

Regretting or not regretting doesnt change the numbers. Someone may have bought in the u.s in 2007, saw massive declines but still may not regret the purchase in 2025. That doesnt change the fact that they paid double the price in 2007 that they could have purchased for in 2010

#43 akashic record on 08.31.18 at 9:30 pm

But, yeah, the FIRE movement and my clients’ championing of it, has resulted in massively unrealistic expectations on the part of some people who think DIY investing is simple

It’s end of August… What’s the year to date performance of the balanced portfolio?

#44 acdel on 08.31.18 at 9:43 pm

Great post today Garth, I really enjoyed it, thanks.

#45 Fish on 08.31.18 at 9:59 pm

there is no way in creation that doing everything twice right down to reg say example a vech license two tines and have inspection done, a

Also, when YOU are told by assistant to be at the meeting , and you go to the meeting and YOU saw a LONG time friend HE SAYS didn’t THEMAN tell you

MEANWHILE , COMPLETE horror left walk away

#46 Frank Blood on 08.31.18 at 9:59 pm

God bless John Taylor’s dad.

#47 Smoking Man on 08.31.18 at 10:00 pm

Trump to T2. Give you first crack at a deal on nafta.

T2 huddles with Mexico. Let’s stand together against the bully.

Mexico nods sure thing kid then goes behind T2 back and makes a deal with Trump.

Now Trump hands T2 a take it or leave it deal…

T2 is the master of high school diplomacy.. He wasn’t ready for the real world. Canadians elected him.. Now live with consequences.

#48 Ace Goodheart on 08.31.18 at 10:00 pm

“Of course, the mother of all political hijackings is the ridiculous influence the small supply management lobby for dairy, poultry and eggs has managed to exert over every political party and every politician in Canada. Should we be surprised that it had 25 lobbyists at the Conservative convention in Halifax last weekend?

Beyond the importance of this issue at the NAFTA negotiations, the reason I have focused on supply management so much is that it is a litmus test: If you let yourself be manipulated by such a small cartel, how will you be able to resist other interest groups and make the right decisions for all Canadians? Simply, you won’t.”

Maxime Bernier

Ontario is about to lose its auto industry to save a small group of politically well connected “dairy farmers”.

These people benefit no one. They control “quotas” which they rent out to others. Most of them don’t even own cows.

They ensure, with their cartel, that dairy prices in Canada are among the highest in the world. These high prices disproportionately effect low income people, who cannot afford milk and dairy products and must purchase low cost substitutes.

Watch as our happless PM sells out Ontario’s mighty auto industry to save a group of people who contribute nothing to our society.

Long live the Dairy board (pffffttt)

#49 Doug t on 08.31.18 at 10:10 pm

DOOMED – this is sad on so many levels – young people wasting their youth on this sh*t – wait till you get older to waste your life

RATM

#50 THREE FINGERS WATSON on 08.31.18 at 10:12 pm

#40 SoggyShorts

It’s been proven again and again on this blog(and dozens of others) that you can rent the same place for less and invest the difference to come out ahead.*
The problem is discipline–you actually have to invest the difference

*yes, buying beats renting with 30% y/y gains, but then picking weed stocks or buying bitcoin at the right moment wins too.

For mostCanadians inmostmarkets inmostsituations, renting + investing is the best choice.
…………………….
I’m not so sure about that. If i sold my condo in Kelowna and invested the proceeds wisely i would not generate enough revenue to cover the rental cost of an equivalent unit esp after being bumped into a higher tax bracket. I have done the math for my situation. I think better to own outright and then invest.
Your mileage may vary……..

#51 Fish on 08.31.18 at 10:41 pm

Please I forgot to say, meet with , the other side,
which
Was,kind enough to enforme the meeting next week,
WHICH NOBODY TOLD ME

( by the way very nice guy, did business with him years ago) not easy , when I’m doing things twice, the COST

Is UNMENTIONED THE LOSS.
ALL TO LIARS
Thanks

#52 Fish on 08.31.18 at 10:53 pm

BUT, when I go out side and I c 10 lights on that Is reassuring

#53 Abalone on 08.31.18 at 10:57 pm

#10
In Canada, Generation Eh? follows. Elsewhere, A.

#54 mike from mtl on 08.31.18 at 11:02 pm

#29 MF on 08.31.18 at 7:33 pm

Take this blog for example. If you were to believe all the fake E-stats you would assume that every 30 year old makes 100k/year and has 500k-1.5 mil in the bank.

///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Total fiction, like everything written towards hedonistic asswipes in social media is fake, so are these.

Even IF real (pfft right) who with seven figures would be writing here for advice apart from hedonistic buttwipes looking for redemption?

Even still does this affect you directly?

#55 OttawaMike on 08.31.18 at 11:13 pm

#48 Ace Goodheart on 08.31.18 at 10:00 pm

America has its own dairy supply management.
Govt of USA has been buying up cheese eggs and powdered milk for years to prop up farmers.current cheese pile is 1.39 billion lbs.

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/us-government-buying-tons-eggs-and-cheese-180960296/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/06/28/americas-cheese-stockpile-just-hit-an-all-time-high/?utm_term=.ed6a5fe88dc7

#56 viorelli on 08.31.18 at 11:15 pm

All the kids now days want to have an easy, comfortable life without any extra effort. My youngest is telling me this: “dad, stop trading your time for money!, You are not getting anywhere”. One thing that he forgets to remember is I am the one who lets him live in a 2br apartment basement at a reduced rate while he is getting an education, I still feed him, own good properties in central Vancouver, decent size portfolio, support his mom who just retired with a hospital employee’s pension, take them traveling with me, and still running my own business at 62. Waking up everyday at 5.30 am to beat the Vancouver traffic while making my own coffee and sandwich in the morning, instead of waiting for mom’s breakfast. I am not even planning to retire for quite a while. Luckily, my oldest was way more disciplined and learned business and finances early in life. He is 39, two kids, good hard working wife (for now), owns his business and home, employees 6 people here in BPOE. He is trading most of his time for money and is not very exited about the Fire or Me Too movements and the rest of the kommie non sense.

#57 Fish on 08.31.18 at 11:49 pm

Garth, could you please tell us all about new changes about investments and forward thinking cost wise
NO
Fees and stuff

thankyou fish

#58 Linda on 08.31.18 at 11:50 pm

Have to say I like what Amanda is saying regarding FIRE. A balanced approach, in that the goal isn’t necessarily never to work again, but instead to work at something one enjoys because you have that cushion to ensure that the necessities are paid for.

I know a number of retirees who have taken up part time work, not because they require the money but to keep themselves active & to maintain social contacts. So are they still retirees or are they FIREees?

#59 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.31.18 at 11:54 pm

Most of the parents on my son’s Junior hockey team in Richmond are millionaires.
Most of them bought 15 years ago and their average house price is about 1.5 Mill.
Are they happy?
No, they are spending about 60k pretax each year on their two wannabe Gertzkies each year.
Combined family income (before tax) about 90k.
HELOCed to the max.
Canadian hockey parents are suckers

#60 Smartalox on 09.01.18 at 12:06 am

If you’re in a dual-income relationship, it’s relatively easy to live on one income, and to invest the other. If you do this in your 30s, you probably only have to do this for five to seven years in order to save enough to retire on in your 60s.

If you start saving for retirement in your 40s you’ll have to save for a little longer. Maybe 10 years. You’ll probably be investing more, too.

If you start in your 50s, you’ll be saving and investing until you retire.

If you start in your 60s, you’ll be using the CHIP reverse mortgage plan, or social assistance, or both.

#61 Mrs. Fool on 09.01.18 at 12:22 am

About yesterday’s post I have to say it’s a beautiful thing what you have done in Lunenburg. You are truly inspiring Garth. I hope one day to have the money to do the same.
There are so many gems waiting to be restored, demolishing them is like destroying part of our history.

#62 n1tro on 09.01.18 at 12:31 am

SoggyShorts on 08.31.18 at 4:40 pm
————————-

Wrong on all counts. Both books already have outlines and pages upon pages of notes.
The school idea isn’t a “far out there” idea either, as I’ve already spent 2 years teaching English in Asia as well as having visited schools in the Dominican, Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Jamaica for research on charitable school building.

Who doesn’t have a plan for what they would do in retirement? Do people like that actually exist?
I mean who hasn’t at least spent some time fantasizing?
Really all it takes is a little research on your idea of a fulfilling retirement plus money plus time.
———————–
Kudos on having a plan and getting started on them!

Who doesn’t have a plan for retirement? Most Canadians because putting your life savings into a house isn’t a retirement plan according to Garth. What compounds this delusion are FIRE chasers. What are the plans beyond 5 years after quitting? Most couldn’t tell you anything concrete.

I think retiring at 50 is a good goal. By then you should have learned enough in the workforce to either continue up or just be done with the politics and do your own thing. At 30, wtf do you know?

#63 Nonplused on 09.01.18 at 12:44 am

#48 Ace Goodheart

“Quotas” are indeed an interesting thing. We all hate OPEC, but essentially quotas are all what they are about. But at least they are not a government enforced thing, Russia and the US and even Canada are free to produce what we want outside the OPEC system. Canadian dairy farmers, not so.

And the quota system never ended up helping anyone. Now, dairy farmers have so much money invested in their quota that they would be bankrupt the moment the system went away. It would be like taxi medallions in NY when Uber arrived.

Al Gore saw it right and clearly. The easiest way to make a bunch of money is to get the government to restrict business to “permit holders” and then buy up all the permits. That’s all “cap and trade” ever was. A way for good old father Santa Al and his personal jet to make money off a problem that didn’t previously exist. And let it be known to everybody, if Al Gore really thought CO2 was an existential threat to the planet, he wouldn’t fly in a private jet and live in a 20,000 sqft house. He knows he’s selling snake oil.

Question: When does a dairy farmer in Canada finally make even? Answer: When he sells his quota. Until then the banks take all the money because the quota has to be financed. Quota is incredibly expensive. It’s way more than the tractor and the barn combined.

#64 Nonplused on 09.01.18 at 12:50 am

PS everybody, I have a “rescue dog”, and he’s a very good dog. But I also consider “pure breeds” to be “rescue dogs”. The breeders aren’t necessarily nicer than fate and the dogs aren’t necessarily better. It’s a dog. Why get all hung up on the breed? Put the breeders out of business. It’s a dog. The mixed breeds are most often much better if what you want is just a dog instead of a status symbol.

#65 Interstellar Old Yeller on 09.01.18 at 12:54 am

John Taylor’s dad: oh, the size of your heart, to have rescued so many dogs, given them a good home for the rest of their days, and continued to do it after many hard goodbyes. Lucky pups, to have found you. John – great sign, thanks for sharing!

Amanda – you have it figured out. The main downside to the path you describe is that my kids won’t have seen the years when DH and I were busting our asses to earn and save. We will have to resort to being the tiresome old parents who tell stories about when they walked to school through summer blizzards, uphill both ways, etc. :>

#66 DON on 09.01.18 at 1:18 am

Jungle And Mattl

Your scenarios about owning real estate are happy path…life is long and housing with unfold on its own timeline. Recognize you are still on the rollercoaster and the turbulence is about to take hold. No theory or best homes and wishes can fix the soon to be hangover.

#67 Fish on 09.01.18 at 1:46 am

Excuse me but seen somebody name Linda
To move to Calgary. I talk with at the car dealership,
Actually I didn’t like her. She wants to go to red lake and Calgary

Sorry, I don’t like red lake

Oh yes, I used to garden , but the cottage is out
Of reach

Thanks

#68 SoggyShorts on 09.01.18 at 3:14 am

#50 THREE FINGERS WATSON on 08.31.18 at 10:12 pm
#40 SoggyShorts
I’m not so sure about that. If i sold my condo in Kelowna and invested the proceeds wisely i would not generate enough revenue to cover the rental cost of an equivalent unit esp after being bumped into a higher tax bracket. I have done the math for my situation. I think better to own outright and then invest.
Your mileage may vary……..

***************************
Just a quick stab at the math since I’m guessing on a lot of numbers:
$300K condo
$300 condo fees
That’s 21,000 at 7%
plus 300 per month fees
=2050 per month. Does a unit like yours cost over 2 grand to rent?

#69 Cdn Mom on 09.01.18 at 3:18 am

FIRE is great, but don’t forget to live on the way. Retirement may never happen.

My mom got the “you have 6 months to a year” talk from the doc, she got 9 painful months. She was 64 when she died. My friend just got word she has maybe 6 WEEKS, doubtful she’ll be conscious for many of them. Hope there’s lots of morphine. Pancreatic cancer. She is 63.

Enjoy your life while you can.

#70 Honey Dripper on 09.01.18 at 6:26 am

It takes 40gal of water to make a gallon of milk that also produces 2 gallons of manure.
We have too many resource sucking dairy farms anyway. Let some go away!

#71 Evangeline on 09.01.18 at 6:43 am

#22 Muttley O’Toole on 08.31.18 at 7:03 pm
A Tale of 4 T’s ….

That was excellent writing and fun to read.

#72 Evangeline on 09.01.18 at 7:11 am

Maxime Bernier talking to Bloomberg Markets about the trade deal(6:06 mins)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BwPaq5fI_zE

#73 FOUR FINGERS WATSON ®️ on 09.01.18 at 7:48 am

#68 SoggyShorts on 09.01.18 at 3:14 am
#50 THREE FINGERS WATSON on 08.31.18 at 10:12 pm
#40 SoggyShorts
I’m not so sure about that. If i sold my condo in Kelowna and invested the proceeds wisely i would not generate enough revenue to cover the rental cost of an equivalent unit esp after being bumped into a higher tax bracket. I have done the math for my situation. I think better to own outright and then invest.
Your mileage may vary……..
***************************
Just a quick stab at the math since I’m guessing on a lot of numbers:
$300K condo
$300 condo fees
That’s 21,000 at 7%
plus 300 per month fees #68 SoggyShorts on 09.01.18 at 3:14 am
#50 THREE FINGERS WATSON on 08.31.18 at 10:12 pm
#40 SoggyShorts
I’m not so sure about that. If i sold my condo in Kelowna and invested the proceeds wisely i would not generate enough revenue to cover the rental cost of an equivalent unit esp after being bumped into a higher tax bracket. I have done the math for my situation. I think better to own outright and then invest.
Your mileage may vary……..
***************************
Just a quick stab at the math since I’m guessing on a lot of numbers:
$300K condo
$300 condo fees
That’s 21,000 at 7%
plus 300 per month fees
=2050 per month. Does a unit like yours cost over 2 grand to rent?
…………………………………

Good luck with a safe 7%. Too much risk….4-5 % is more like it. Don’t forget the taxes on the income. A decent 1BR basement suite in Kelowna is going for around 13-1400, never mind a nice condo with an indoor pool and sauna, hot tub, gym, billiard room, library with “ free” internet, cinema room, elevator, and underground parking.

#74 FredfromKitchener on 09.01.18 at 8:13 am

An abundance of wisdom in today’s column.

#75 KLNR on 09.01.18 at 8:26 am

@#56 viorelli on 08.31.18 at 11:15 pm
All the kids now days want to have an easy, comfortable life without any extra effort. My youngest is telling me this: “dad, stop trading your time for money!, You are not getting anywhere”. One thing that he forgets to remember is I am the one who lets him live in a 2br apartment basement at a reduced rate while he is getting an education, I still feed him, own good properties in central Vancouver, decent size portfolio, support his mom who just retired with a hospital employee’s pension, take them traveling with me, and still running my own business at 62. Waking up everyday at 5.30 am to beat the Vancouver traffic while making my own coffee and sandwich in the morning, instead of waiting for mom’s breakfast. I am not even planning to retire for quite a while. Luckily, my oldest was way more disciplined and learned business and finances early in life. He is 39, two kids, good hard working wife (for now), owns his business and home, employees 6 people here in BPOE. He is trading most of his time for money and is not very exited about the Fire or Me Too movements and the rest of the kommie non sense.
__________________________
LOL, anyone who doesn’t do it your way is a Kommie?
Such an abused word by you folk. Sounds like your younger son has a bit more wisdom than you or the other kid.

#76 Headhunter on 09.01.18 at 9:10 am

#59 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.31.18 at 11:54 pm
Most of the parents on my son’s Junior hockey team in Richmond are millionaires.
Most of them bought 15 years ago and their average house price is about 1.5 Mill.
Are they happy?
No, they are spending about 60k pretax each year on their two wannabe Gertzkies each year.
Combined family income (before tax) about 90k.
HELOCed to the max.
Canadian hockey parents are suckers

—————————————————————
that post really hit home as we were a HUGE sports family all seasons.. lucky business was good cause it does cost a bundle. 2 cars driving over hells half acre!! Hotels, food,..(beers) etc! Let alone the price of some CCM Supertack skates. We didn’t have to put up with $400 sticks tho…I had 2 sons playin hard!

Hockey in this country is a con on the population. I guess being #1 in maple syrup doesn’t count for much. Canada Russia series 1972 we were LUCKY to win. Bobby Clarke intentionally two handed the best russian player and broke his ankle… never played the entire series. sorry.

The cost to play now at a competitive level is too prohibitive.. Your dad better be rich.. like tennis golf and motor sports. $$$$$$ at the grass roots level, Head injuries and the complications with, will be the death knell of the sport.

Canadian Tire and Bauer already know this hence the “jumpstart” type programs. Fat lady is singing and Elvis has left the building.

#59 Ponzius Pilatus tell your maxed-out parents to sell while they can and enjoy the windfall. Not worth the stress. The music has stopped, not enuf chairs for everyone.

#77 Bezengy on 09.01.18 at 9:27 am

The dilemma for the baby boomer generation obsessed with retirement. Retire and do what?, or keep working and make more money you’ll never spend. Who thought winning the monopoly game of life would be so complicated?
___________________

Should be hearing something big from Trump today. No way he’ll let the Mccain funeral steal the show. Humility just doesn’t work for him.

#78 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.01.18 at 9:45 am

@#45, 51, 52, 67 Fish

How’s the head this morning?

#79 Millennial Realist on 09.01.18 at 10:21 am

Pups, eh…

https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2018/09/01/precarious-work-poses-serious-consequences-for-millennials-mental-health-report-says.html

Thanks again, Boomers. Everything you’ve done for yourselves has come at our expense. You have no idea how much more challenging life is for us than it was for you. This is why as we take control of everything over the next 2-5 years, we will be fair but merciless about taking control and privilege away from you. Get ready for major changes to unequal tax privileges, inheritance rules and more. You will suffer greatly, but it will only be a fraction of what we are already enduring.

Be part of the change. Or be run over by it.

#80 Maggie the Tec Writer on 09.01.18 at 11:00 am

@#56 viorelli on 08.31.18 at 11:15 pm

Can you explain what is kommie (sic) about MeToo?

Only “kommies” fight back against abuses of power? Surely that’s not what you mean to imply if you think well of the capitalist system, or even our mixed economy.

#81 NoName on 09.01.18 at 11:09 am

Last night I was reading mews about nafta talks falling through and thinking how and whhat Frantz would write about it. Most likely it would sound like this; As Joe the Average awoke one morning from uneasy dreams nafta negotiation he found himself transformed in his bed into a gigantic Joe the Deplorable. And i guess from now on many in canada will go through kafkas routine that he described in his diery way back in a 20s; Sunday, 19 July, slept, awoke, slept, awoke, miserable life. When I think about it, I must say that my education has done me great harm in some respects.

#82 Armpit on 09.01.18 at 11:42 am

EVERYONE WHO LOOKS TO RETIRE IN 5 YEARS SHOULD PRACTICED “FIRE”, AND THOSE THAT DO…. REALIZE THEY MAY HAVE TO WORK ANOTHER 10 YEARS.

#83 Glengarry Girl on 09.01.18 at 11:42 am

I can share some insight into my thoughts when it comes to Employment and Work and Retirement. I think people that think like we do are misunderstood. I have had the good fortune to have many experiences and I am a keen observer of People and Behaviors. I’ve lived and spent time with the Wealthy and the Poor. My husbands is a high level IT Consultant and I’ve held professional jobs as well as hussle jobs in the Service industry.. His career is Soul Sucking, as are most, and my recent experiences bordered modern day slavery. There are those that object to my realist point of view because it is frightening or uncomfortable for them to imagine a path that is not like the one that they know or are planning for. I feel the opposite, I feel free and prepared because I dont believe in those principals of the past and I act accordingly. I have seen countless people including my own dear Father give his all to his employer just to get screwed over come retirement. Times are changing, Education, Health, Work, Retirement and Investments and even Death are predatory business models and we are the Cog in the Wheel. The working business model is not good for the employee and it shows with our Society, many are sick and depressed and trapped. Those people that tell us Stay the Coarse, Change is Bad, Switching jobs and moving is bad, so is Renting are either benefiting from our conforming or they are Frightened of Change. The realist in me really observes the behaviours and outcomes of all People. If you believe in the Old Rules, you work hard for one Company, they reward your Loyalty and you retire at 65 with a nice pension. This Facade is what keeps many still plugged in, drinking the koolaid, but it is a thing of the past. These are the people that I find to be angry and don’t understand our Lifestyle. I often hear these people criticizing the young for being lazy and unloyal. I feel sorry for those people, still brainwashed that they should keep working harder, they will be rewarded. The reality is that Companies are no longer looking out for the best interest of the Employee, they use us. That business model was gone decades ago, some just haven’t accepted it yet. My husband has switched employers so many times, he quits and get another job quite easily. He has worked for many of the leading companies in his Industry, the workers are slaves and there is no work life balance. this is the model going forward. If you haven’t experienced this first hand you must be delysional or living under a rock. Husband works with IT people that have no job security past next month, we have seen the results of a demoralizing job on these people for years, divorce, addiction, sickness. However, because we have the FIRE mentality we are not captive. We have the financial freedom that many are describing here. We can quit jobs, start new ones, start a business, move and travel anywhere in the World. We are very Happy, have great self sufficient kids that we brought up to adapt to this new reality too. Some think that being a realist and thinking this way would make us negative and worried, it’s the furthest from the Truth. I think most people I’ve met or read that have adapted their lifestyle to thrive and survive through this reality are very positive people. I think that we also share the belief that Society expects us to conform and consume and we reject this. I would imagine that anyone of us in this movement are free thinkers. We aren’t too concerned what some Old Fart thinks anyway. I just thought some readers here might be interested in the background of what motivates some like me.

#84 Dissident on 09.01.18 at 11:43 am

#79 Millennial Realist on 09.01.18 at 10:21 am

Have to agree with you. Just the mere fact that starting salaries for most entry-level jobs have not increased from $35K in the last 10 years is a sign that things are not good. (If I started at the bottom again, today, that’s how much I’d get paid).

Meanwhile, houses have doubled in price in the last 10 years. Your lunch is more expensive today. And people are still working for the same money they were 10 years ago. It’s kind of ridiculous.

#85 Jungle on 09.01.18 at 11:45 am

IN the GTA rents have gone up 30-40% ? alone in the last 3 years at least while incomes have not. Vacancy rate very low 1% putting enormous pressure on this , not in favour of tenants.

Immigration continues and aggressive targets are set to increase by 2020 to 370k/ year.

Surprisingly, strongest job growth and incomes in the core cities. Toronto becoming dense , world class city with many high rises now as there is no more land to build houses.

Things have changed- globalization, cheap credit, and gap between rich and poor has increased.

Homeowners are advantaged because of leverage, access to cheap credit and stable payments.

Even with the stress test, ZOLO reports 3.5 months of inventory for detach last month, and condos even tighter.

3-9 months of inventory=No crash.that’s why prices are sticking .

You want a crash wish for a horrible recession, span out many years with 12+ months of inventory.

Good luck!

#86 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.01.18 at 11:55 am

@#79 Millenial Surrealist
“This is why as we take control of everything over the next 2-5 years”

+++++

Ahahahahaha

Is that before or after you leave mom’s basement?

#87 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.01.18 at 12:06 pm

@#85 Jungle Fever
“Even with the stress test, ZOLO reports 3.5 months of inventory for detach last month, and condos even tighter.
3-9 months of inventory=No crash.that’s why prices are sticking ”

+++++
and speaking of delusional…..

Prices are “sticking” because the Summer real estate sales doldrums are about to be punched in the face by Autumn’s “fall” ( haha pun intended) market.

You’re “pumping” real estate to the wrong crowd Jungle.
A slow inexorable slide into Crickets-ville would seem to the be future of Realtor bankruptcy in TO and Vandelusional.
Next up!
Another interest rate increase!
Followed by dismal NAFTA news!
B20 regulations kicking potential buyers in the goolies.
All formulating into the prolonged real estate slide we have been waiting for.

Nope.
All your spin and sales hype are for not.
Threats of new Canadian immigrants buying everything and 30-40% rent increases (spare me please) are total garbage. The same old rhetoric from a worn out and tired realtor.
You need to up your sales pitch schtich.
Its laughable.

#88 Viorelli on 09.01.18 at 12:06 pm

@#80, Maggie. I did not mean to label everyone who doesn’t agree with our current system a commie. Obviously everything is not black and white like someone here is trying to describe the current situation of millennials. The system is not perfect, but for now it works, it allows the hard working, the goal driven, the ambitious to succeed in life given the favourable circumstances. Nevertheless in the socialist system everyone shares the misery. I was born in the former Soviet union and know exactly what it’s like, only the corrupt commie leadership has any chance at “favourable circumstances “, everyone else is thrown under the bus. Theses movements like: gender neutral, mee too, gender balanced, post national state, sexual education agendas, rich versus poor, boomers versus millennials, masculinity versus feminism are desired to divide and concour the slave’s minds while they are fighting over left over crumbs of the success of globalization and free trade! Instead we should better the futures of our millennials by focusing all our efforts on creating fair employment and business opportunities here at home, not in China or the USA.

#89 GenerationAA on 09.01.18 at 12:08 pm

To all the people wondering on this board what generation comes after Z, look no further than every financial planners best friend: Microsoft Excel.

After Generation Z, comes Generation AA, of course!

#90 Damifino on 09.01.18 at 12:16 pm

#79 Millennial Realist

When the ‘PEPSO Research Group’ speaks, I listen. “..the cards haven’t been dealt well for them.” No Doubt. “The word that comes to mind is disturbing”. I’ll say.

Another word comes to my mind: ‘repetition’. Every generation has trotted out that ‘bad set of cards’ lament. I know I did. I had as much success with it as you will.

Fortunately you have something I didn’t, namely a “networked approach when it comes to tackling big ideas” as opposed to the every-man-for-himself dictates of the rotary dial landline era.

I urge you now to seize the reigns of power that my cohorts have abused for their own greedy and corrupt purposes at your sole expense. Create the final app that will right the wrongs of history and send me to my just desserts.

When we meet on the other side there will be time to discuss why every generation makes a proper hash of things, just like the one before mine.

#91 Dissident on 09.01.18 at 12:18 pm

I actually think that corporations are hanging on to “recessionist thinking”, from 2008, when it comes to worker salaries – that’s when it’s convenient for them to justify paying someone the same salary as they did 10 years ago, just before/just after the crash. “Oh, we’re just getting out of a recession”.

Meanwhile, it a completely different story on the books – their post-crash downsizing, low emergency interest rates, tightening of budgets, and government stimulus packages (i.e. social assistance for corporations), post-2008, have inflated their profit margins so greatly, they keep hitting record highs, just like the stock market.

So when it comes to paying people proportionally more than they did in 2008, there’s the fall-back crutch of “Oh, we just got out of a recession”. But when it’s time to report profits, it’s, “I can’t believe we made this much money!”

How convenient. And I think it’s this kind of “double-think” that has pooched the younger generation. Companies everywhere are still operating in “lean mode” when it comes to expenses and spending on employees, but profit-wise, it’s a waaaaay different story. They’re jacking prices on everything, but still paying people the same salary (time-adjusted for incremental annual raises), for the past decade.

#92 dakkie on 09.01.18 at 12:22 pm

Supply of Homes Surges 20% to 90% in Many Markets Just as Pending Home Sales Drop

http://www.investmentwatchblog.com/supply-of-homes-surges-20-to-90-in-many-markets-just-as-pending-home-sales-drop/

#93 B Wilds on 09.01.18 at 12:33 pm

We are talking about to totally different markets but here in America, the government, coupled with a slew of builder and Realtor associations control the housing narrative. Huge discrepancies exist in the cost of housing in the various markets across America and while price variations are not uncommon they should be seen as a reason for caution.

The future of the housing market is a topic that has been subject to a great deal of debate and can be somewhat confusing. The intention of the post below is to shed light on some of the myths that have been generated and add some clarity to the discussion of where housing policies are taking us.

#94 Ace Goodheart on 09.01.18 at 12:38 pm

#79 Millennial Realist on 09.01.18 at 10:21 am

“Thanks again, Boomers. Everything you’ve done for yourselves has come at our expense.”

Interestingly enough, the reality of the Millennial and soon to be Gen Z experience with employment, has nothing to do with a bunch of people born in the late 1940s (who all area in their late 60’s now).

It has to do with something I like to call “soft push back economics”

Post 1945, it became apparent to North Americans and Western Europeans that the rest of the planet was basically a large, badly organized and hopelessly poor human discount grocery store. Ie, you could purchase, for almost nothing, endless amounts of labor, and fill your homes with cheap, mass produced junk that was made by people who earn less in a year than you do in a week.

We have done this, quite religiously, getting into it earnestly in the 1960s, and perfecting the exploitation of impoverished governments and countries during the 1970s and 1980s US “purge wars” (where left wing democratically elected governments were replaced by force, through military invasions, with right wing dictators, in target countries where the USA had a proposed or actual economic interest).

We created the “big three” in the 1990s, the USA, South East Asia and Russia, with the USA being known for its military, South East Asia for its unstoppable and incredibly cheap workforce, and Russia for its endless natural resources, particularly its natural gas (which keeps the lights on and the frost out in Western Europe).

By the early 2000’s however something started to go wrong. Again, it is not possible to blame a bunch of late 1940’s babies for the situation. You could as easily blame Santa Clause or the Easter bunny (and you probably would be hitting closer to the mark). But the actual reason for the slow collapse, that we are now all experiencing, is the above mentioned “soft push back economics”.

Simply put, people do not like to be exploited.

You can put up walls, barricades, you can deny immigration, you can build a military that is able to crush any foreign government any time it likes. But you cannot stop the soft push back.

People who traveled internationally in the 1990s and into the 2000’s probably noticed how hard it was to get out of the third world and back into the first world. They probably visited an airport in Kinshasa, DRC and saw masses of people trying to get out, who could not board airplanes to North America or Western Europe. A massive global armed guard force was put in place, to make sure that no one without the right passport got out of the third world and into the first.

Why all this effort to keep people from moving from one place to another? The exploited labor is in the third world. The consumers are in the first world. What would you rather be?

Then it all blew up. WTC was destroyed on Sept 11th, 2001. The “war of errors” followed, a global assault on the planet, by a country afraid of its own shadows. A great economic collapse, banks and countries imploding everywhere, and followed hard on by the most brutal, useless, childish and dangerous President the USA has ever had the misfortune of suffering under.

What has happened? Why is the UK acting like a petulant child, “we don’t want to play with you anymore, you’re mean!”. Why is the USA degenerating into a class warfare populist state, with no clear direction and a President who fights with everyone “just because”, making policy decisions based on gut reactions and perceived slights against him and his family?

Soft push back economics, folks. The chickens are coming home to roost. The global workforce that the North Americans and Western Europeans have exploited since the 1950s, is requesting its rights.

And it will get them. So instead of competing with a few hundred people to get that prized job you want so bad, you are competing with the planet. A person in India, who has worked way harder than you, is not the spoiled, overfed, under worked, pampered little brat that you are, also wants that job and due to the portability of the global workforce and the interconnected nature of our planet, they will get the job and not you.

Little by little, the third world has taken its rights back. They have pretty much gotten back everything that was stolen from them by now. But they have something else too, that they did not have before.

They understand us. Better than we understand them. And they are very, very angry.

#95 Dissident on 09.01.18 at 12:39 pm

Right up this blog’s alley.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-cost-of-buying-a-home-is-rising-three-times-faster-than-the-cost-to-rent-2018-09-01?mod=MW_home_top_stories

#96 Bytor the Snow Dog on 09.01.18 at 12:41 pm

#79 Millennial Realist on 09.01.18 at 10:21 am sez:
“Pups, eh…

https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2018/09/01/precarious-work-poses-serious-consequences-for-millennials-mental-health-report-says.html

Thanks again, Boomers. Everything you’ve done for yourselves has come at our expense. You have no idea how much more challenging life is for us than it was for you. This is why as we take control of everything over the next 2-5 years, we will be fair but merciless about taking control and privilege away from you. Get ready for major changes to unequal tax privileges, inheritance rules and more. You will suffer greatly, but it will only be a fraction of what we are already enduring.

Be part of the change. Or be run over by it.”
————————————————————

Note to All Boomers: Screw these aholes. Sell everything and spend it ALL. Leave no inheritance for ingrates like these.

#97 Linda on 09.01.18 at 12:44 pm

‘Cdn Mom’ – I hear you on the life is short. I’ve worked with far too many people over the years who did not live long enough to retire. This whole plan to live to age 90 scenario is something most people won’t have to worry about. As per recent StatsCan data, just over 1.5 million Canadians are aged 80 plus. So about 4.5% of the total population. The breakdown by age range is 700,000 between ages 80-84; 500,000 between ages 85-89 & 300,000 for all Canadians aged 90 or older. So not even 1% of Canadians live past age 90. Yes, everyone should plan for their golden years, but be realistic. If everyone in your family dies in their 70’s, your chances of living past the average are not as good as someone whose family histories are filled with people who live to 100+ years of age. Not to mention what your own state of health is. Obviously if you are healthy & take care of your health/fitness your chances of living longer are better than someone who suffers from chronic health issues & doesn’t practice a healthy lifestyle.

‘Fire is a symptom’ – further regarding health issues, work isn’t necessarily the root of all illness. In fact, working has some health benefits. Studies have shown that those who have a fixed routine tend to live longer than those whose daily routine is unregulated. Work usually provides a framework for a daily, regulated routine. Depending on employer, there may be medical benefits coverage that encourages the employee & family to have regular dental & medical treatments. Apparently lack of dental care was a major factor in lower life expectancy for previous generations. Work also provides social interaction, which in an age where many mainly interact via an electronic device has increasing importance. Plus even the most boring job requires some neural activity, which again benefits overall health.

Earning a living is what most of us have to do in order to get what we want. The challenge is figuring out how to enjoy the life we are living along the way.

#98 SoggyShorts on 09.01.18 at 12:50 pm

#73 FOUR FINGERS WATSON ®️ on 09.01.18 at 7:48 am
Good luck with a safe 7%. Too much risk….4-5 % is more like it. Don’t forget the taxes on the income. A decent 1BR basement suite in Kelowna is going for around 13-1400, never mind a nice condo with an indoor pool and sauna, hot tub, gym, billiard room, library with “ free” internet, cinema room, elevator, and underground parking.
********************
Those amenities sound great. Is the condo fee pool all stocked up? Sounds like a lot of stuff that will need to be fixed/maintained/replaced over the years. 7% gains might sound risky, but I’m thinking those special assessments are too. BTW was I close with the 300K/300 fee numbers? I tried looking online, but not a single condo I could find in Kelowna listed the condo fees.

#99 Xpat on 09.01.18 at 1:25 pm

#69 Cdn Mom on 09.01.18 at 3:18 am
FIRE is great, but don’t forget to live on the way. Retirement may never happen.

My mom got the “you have 6 months to a year” talk from the doc, she got 9 painful months. She was 64 when she died. My friend just got word she has maybe 6 WEEKS, doubtful she’ll be conscious for many of them. Hope there’s lots of morphine. Pancreatic cancer. She is 63.

Enjoy your life while you can.

Everyone should read your post a few times. Wise words.

The common man lives better than kings did just a couple centuries ago and yet we have skyrocketing depression. We have it easy if we find the courage to walk our own paths.

#100 Fish on 09.01.18 at 1:43 pm

Please enjoy free dounuts at the front desk dropped them off a bit ago with the NICE lady at the front desk for the crew,

#101 SoggyShorts on 09.01.18 at 2:01 pm

#79 Millennial Realist on 09.01.18 at 10:21 am
Pups, eh…

https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2018/09/01/precarious-work-poses-serious-consequences-for-millennials-mental-health-report-says.html

Thanks again, Boomers. Everything you’ve done for yourselves has come at our expense. You have no idea how much more challenging life is for us than it was for you.
*************************
Ugh blame the boomers again. Why do some Mills seem to think that every boomer got a 9-5 career out of highschool and a gold plated pension, and then specifically cancelled those pensions for future generations?

You know what I never seem to hear? That a Mill moved to a different city for better work and lower cost of living.
Yet when I think of all of my fathers friends, they all lived and worked in at least 3 different provinces depending on the economy.

So you can’t afford a 1.2m house in TO. Ok.
How about the same house for 3-400K 1,2 or 3 provinces to the left?

#102 AGuyInVancouver on 09.01.18 at 2:01 pm

#18 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 08.31.18 at 6:31 pm
Nothing. The T2 regime is too invested in this for it not to proceed. – Garth
………………………………..

I hope you are right cuz oil plays a big part in paying for our schools, hospitals, and infrastructure. But it could take years to accomplish, and in the meantime the message we send to the rest of the world is that Canada is NOT open for business. We are really gonna suffer if we get a poor NAFTA deal.
_ _ _
Alberta needs to get off oil The smoke from the fires in BC, the +30 temps in places like Stockholm, it all should have been a strong enough warning that AB is peddling a toxic product. The province should be planning an exit strategy and looking to the future, not a 20th century past.

As to NAFTA, maybe Canada needs its version of a “Hard Brexit”. Free trade with the USA made us lazy in looking for other markets. America is declining in global importance, let’s look for opportunities elsewhere. You can’t negotiate free trade with someone like Trump, who has no interest in free trade at all.

#103 Fish on 09.01.18 at 2:13 pm

Linda having a picnic at the table last year living roommates, she said in a small Ontario

well great no roommate for me
I’m independent just going to get a dog, for true companion ship,

#104 Tupelo Honey on 09.02.18 at 3:42 pm

Jacked in a job I disliked two years ago at 46 with just into seven figs in the bank. Now do the things I always wanted to do but which pay 35% of what I used to earn. Much, much happier.

#105 PastThePeak on 09.02.18 at 3:46 pm

Generations:

Most demographers would say, based on birth year:
’45 – ’64 => Baby Boomers
’65 – ’82 => Gen X (early 80’s)
’83 – ’00 => Millennials (Gen Y)
’01 – ’18 (so far) => Gen Z (also the iGeneration)

In other words, the oldest Gen Z is 18 with these definitions. There is one book that defined Mills as having been born up to ’96 (so a Gen Z might be 22), but most don’t consider ’96 a logical boundary. Generations are exactly that – around the 20 year duration mark, give or take.

Anyways, most sources would consider Mills as about 18/19 to ~36/37. All of the house interest is with the Millennials – Gen Z is still playing Fortnite and hanging on SnapChat, and have given 0 consideration for their future…(I know, ’cause they are my kids…)…