The mill chill

For decades Boomers dominated housing. They still do. The home ownership rate among the wrinklies exceeds 70%. Compare that with 50% for the moisters (those aged 30 or more) and just 35% for American millennials. If there’s a lock on real estate, the old people have it. The asset’s performed well for them in, thanks to rampant inflation and fat economic growth, followed by years of lean interest rates.

But all this is changing.

There are more millennials (aged 22 to 37) than depleted hippies (54 to 72). In fact, mills are the biggest demographic in Canadian history. But the contrast with the old guys is dramatic. When they were 30, almost six in ten Boomers had houses. They got married earlier, established families sooner and walked away from their parental home as quick as possible.

Today the biggest generation is more urban, indebted, educated and in no hurry to leave the womb. A new survey (Royal LePage) found, astonishingly, 44% of Boomers still have children living with them. Of those, 20% expect the moisters to be in the basement until after age 30 and 10% are planning not to get rid of their kids after 35 – which used to be called ‘middle-aged.’

Huh? What happened to that youthful drive to be independent, free and wild oats-sowing?

The impact on real estate is palpable. It’s going down. Just as the wrinklies need to be extricating their net worth from those big four-bedroom suburban McMansions, the generation that should be popping kid #2 and moving up the property ladder is busy having mom do laundry.

Reasons abound. Student debt is crippling since now even baristas need MAs (or think they do). Cheap money since the credit crisis doubled the value of real estate, pushing prices out of reach. Insane government regs and taxes have skewered the market, making cheap houses and condos into unaffordable assets and retarding the entire market. Intense competition among the teeming masses of moisters has exacerbated this. And the economy has sucked for most of the time since they got out of uni. Slow growth. Stagnant incomes. Gig jobs. No pensions. Plus everyone needs to spend their disposable income on tats and iPhone 8s. S’tough.

Now interest rates are rising and will continue, thanks in part to the Inflation President. Big issue for real estate, which is negatively correlated to the cost of money. Millennial demand for housing has been seriously muted by flatlined incomes and retarded family formation. And a wave of Boomer selling is just commencing. While as a generation these people are wealthy, a disproportionate share of that net worth is in housing. It must be unlocked, since 72% have no corporate pensions and many have a piteous amount saved or invested.

In 1995 I wrote a book forecasting that by 2015 the stock market would be at record levels and housing would be in decline. I aced equities, but was three or four years off on real estate. But, sure enough, here we go.

Realtor conglomerates know what’s coming. There is an utter inevitability about the overall erosion in the market value of residential real estate as rates rise, generations jockey, taxes augment and the economy lurches forward in a Trumpian fog of protectionist tribalism. Desperation makes men to despicable things. When it comes to house-humpers, not much changes.

So, Royal LePage needs a spanking for its deliberate attempt to misstate the facts. Two days ago it issued a ‘report’ claiming real estate will be buzzing – with 1.4 million new purchases in the next five years – because Boomers will be moving to smaller properties or into smaller towns. “This is expected to have a meaningful impact on the housing market,” the company said. But “prices will not retract. When it comes to smaller homes and condos, downsizing boomers often become competition for young families and immigrants, helping to push prices up.”

“The main beneficiaries will likely be first-time homebuyers who are at the tail end of the millennial cohort and the much smaller generation Z. Downsizing boomers will also likely leave more space for older millennials who already own a house but are a looking to move to a bigger home as their families grow.”

Of course, LePage is in the business of selling houses, and making people want to own them. So it infers moisters should be buying now before downsizing Boomers suck up all the condos and affordable properties and price them out, giving them yet another reason to hate their parents. But the reality could be far different.

For a house-rich, investment-poor wrinklie to downsize there needs to be a sale first, then a purchase. More than 1,000 Canadian boomers retire every day, a number which will be matched every 24 hours for at least another 19 years. Twenty per cent of those people have saved nothing. Nothing. Over 40% intend to live primarily on government pogey – CPP and OAS crumbs. And three-quarters told fund company Franklin Templeton in a survey that they’re stressed out about not having enough to finance the rest of their lives.

This is why a tsunami of listings will materialize in the next five years. LePage may be correct about 1.4 million selling and downsizing, but there could be five million more who just need to bail to survive. This will happen during a period of higher interest rates and when the retirement of eleven million Boomers adds a deadening weight to government overhead, and the economy.

The only possible conclusion: stay in mom’s basement as long as possible. When she punts you you to move to Temagami, buy.

164 comments ↓

#1 Honky Donkey Blues on 08.12.18 at 2:21 pm

I’m guessing the first strategy for a home owner living on OAS/CPP is to try and supplement with a reverse mortgage? How will the RM industry be affected?

#2 Bytor the Snow Dog on 08.12.18 at 2:22 pm

#64 Gravy Train on 08.12.18 at 9:52 am
#56 Bytor the Snow Dog on 08.12.18 at 8:00 am
“@55 GRAVY TRAIN-You might wanna rethink that. Asbestos is a set of six naturally occurring silicate minerals, which all have in common their eponymous asbestiform habit[….]

You missed the point entirely: Asbestos is both a mineral and a chemical substance. Jess had it right, and Russ had no right to disparage him. Minerals are inorganic chemistry. Get it? No? I give up! Conversing with deplorables is exhausting. Why do I even try? :)
——————————–

Jess had it wrong, and so do you. Asbestos is NOT a “manufactured chemical substance”.

Sorry it hurts your condescending feminist teacher sensibilities to be wrong, but wrong you are.

PS- It wasn’t her turn, honey. You’ll be ok.

#3 Andrewski on 08.12.18 at 2:23 pm

Holy crap, “44% of boomers still have their kids living with them…”! Enablers or disablers?!

#4 dosouth on 08.12.18 at 2:23 pm

An excuse for everything and a reason for nothing. Nothing changes if everything remains the same as these excuses for grown-up’s are allowed to wander aimlessly with poor parenting and thanks to today’s Social Media …. the ideal that actual work is so Baby Boomerish.

We know what they think of Baby Boomers……just get a job.

#5 ulsterman on 08.12.18 at 2:36 pm

Huh? What happened to that youthful drive to be independent, free and wild oats-sowing?

Maybe the moisters have it all figured out. Live with your parents for virtually nothing and have large disposable incomes even on a modest salary. Independent and free? I bet most can go out to the bar, go to Cabo for Spring Break, and pretty much do whatever they want anyway. The freedom home ownership brings may only be the freedom to visit Home Depot and IKEA every weekend! I don’t know, I’m just speculating, but i bet many of them are living a pretty fun, independent, iPhone, Starbucks, and patio-dwelling lives all while living in the family home. Sure, bringing back a date may get a little complicated, but i’m sure there’s an app for that i’m too old to even understand!

#6 crossbordershopper on 08.12.18 at 2:38 pm

what a rat race southern ontario is now. Wow, lots more people from around the world. Kinda have to be on your toes driving, i remember when the traffic would start o nthe 401 from the west around the mississauga curve, now wow, before milton,
southern ontario will be like southern california in 20 years, with the young people or not. how can you not say its not immigration, no old white people have kids, man they dont even get married.
real estate is crazy expensive for nothing, crap houses on shared cement foundation,cheap oriental board, cheap frame, drywall some trim, tape paint shingles, plug and play appliances and wow 700K for a townie.
i got to look at getting me some lots in southern ontario, someone is making money. i can bring in that stuff from the usa for half price. i will be forewarding everyone my wholesale contacts drive to detroit or buffalo and pick them up yourself.
do people really think people spend 8000 to change a roof in buffalo? $2500 shingles, the black paper, a couple of those air flow things, a couple monkeys and 4 hours. people make way too much money here, and the houses reflect it.
the problem with that is that people are financing the upfront profit from the builders and contractors with debt for 25 years,
i would not like to be young in southern ontario, low wages and high real estate prices, good luck with that life. i was talking to an east indian guy and he said he has 1 million in equity, one house and one rental, do you know he doesnt eat out, have a cell phone or travel. weirdest place in the world where millionaires cut their own lawn, and dont have 20 bucks in their pocket and are on par with the bumb.

#7 Vancourerite on 08.12.18 at 2:46 pm

1/4 of households in the Dunbar neighborhood of Vancouver declare less than 35 thousand a year in income, yet the houses are over 2million. How can this be Garth? Undeclared foreign income perhaps?

#8 Catalyst on 08.12.18 at 2:47 pm

The downsizing wave is still 10 years off. It is a myth in my opinion that boomers are willing to downsize from their mcmansions to closets – it just doesnt happen in practice until medical problems really start to mount.

#9 North Burnaby on 08.12.18 at 2:54 pm

I am starting to see the real estate market recovering in Burnaby, Vanciuver still have ways to go though.

#10 Fish on 08.12.18 at 3:01 pm

Don’t see anything that remotely moves me,
lots of the same RE listings, some have come done in price, rethinking this but once again

#11 TheDood on 08.12.18 at 3:08 pm

#9 North Burnaby on 08.12.18 at 2:54 pm

I am starting to see the real estate market recovering in Burnaby, Vanciuver still have ways to go though.

______________________

Really? Pass that spliff dude.

#12 Hawk on 08.12.18 at 3:11 pm

#6 crossbordershopper

millionaire’s cut their own lawn and don’t have 20 bucks in their pocket.

==============================

lol funny, but a bit exaggerated. The interesting thing I notice, when I got to have coffee/lunch is that the malls in my area of Etobicoke are all packed…..even on weekdays.

So people are spending,………just wonder how much of it’s debt vs. earnings based.

#13 Penny Henny on 08.12.18 at 3:13 pm

I thought you were going to talk about the scuzzbuckets at Remax today Garth?

#14 mike from mtl on 08.12.18 at 3:22 pm

#8 Catalyst on 08.12.18 at 2:47 pm
The downsizing wave is still 10 years off. It is a myth in my opinion that boomers are willing to downsize from their mcmansions to closets – it just doesnt happen in practice until medical problems really start to mount.

////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Spot on.

Not a single boomer I know has any sort of plans to downsize. Even when health and mobility issues arise they are too damn proud and entitled to ‘step down the ladder’. Move to a retirement community? You nuts?

Home care nursing I think will become a huge industry.

#15 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.12.18 at 3:26 pm

@#9 North Burnaby
“I am starting to see the real estate market recovering in Burnaby”
+++++

I drive through North Burnaby on a daily Basis.
I’m seeing the same “For Sale” signs on Single Family Dwellings and condos for almost two months now.

Either you’re delusional or a Realtor…. either way…… wrong.

#16 fred graves on 08.12.18 at 3:27 pm

Thank God! After weeks of zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz you snap out of it and write a funny, acerbic, and even possibly insightful article.
Welcome back

#17 Anon in KL on 08.12.18 at 3:29 pm

Temagami?!?! Never thought id see that town on this blog. Or any town up here for that matter. Granted, Temagami was in the news recently with the forest fire situation. It is a scenic town on the lake. Housing is cheap where I live. And if you can score a decent job in the mining industry, you can save a pile of money in a short period of time (if you dont spend it on 60k pickups with truck nuts) and not have to worry about being illiquid come retirement.

#18 Damifino on 08.12.18 at 3:42 pm

Huh? What happened to that youthful drive to be independent, free and wild oats-sowing?
————————————-

That drive still exists. But now it’s possible to realize those goals in the comfort of mom’s basement suite.

I don’t think my dad sowed a single wild oat in his lifetime and he sure wouldn’t have had his son doing any such thing under his roof. Or under his floor.

#19 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 08.12.18 at 3:47 pm

Lots of boomers already downsizing and moving to Kelowna. I see it every day. And it will continue for the next 10 years or so. Little do they know…Kelowna looked apocalyptic this morning. I checked my weather app and it said 12* and foggy. I stepped outside and my 2 thermometers said 16* and my nose said smoke….Government numbers eh? My tax dollars at work…Air quality index is off the chart at 10+. Another Ventolin day for me and the grandkids have been housebound most of the week. Hong Kong looked better last time i was there in March. But people keep on moving here. Best place on earth.

#20 dakkie on 08.12.18 at 3:56 pm

Redfin Stock Crashes 22% – Redfin CEO “significant slowdown” in home sales.

http://www.investmentwatchblog.com/redfin-stock-crashes-22-redfin-ceo-significant-slowdown-in-home-sales/

#21 The Cynic on 08.12.18 at 4:09 pm

The truth is the rest of the world shares a home through generations. Kids become adults, get married have kids etc. The grandparents look after the kids. The adult kids look after their parents when they are elderly.

The “leave home, break the bank at college, and get a 9-5 and get a house/mortgage” is the North American dream – almost certainly that narrative continues to get pushed so as to put the chains of debt on the moisters.

We also get taught “sex is bad” and can’t have adult conversations with our parents – so during the prime mating years the kids want out. You’d be surprised how open other cultures are about that…

#22 conan on 08.12.18 at 4:11 pm

Hitler was a socialist. – smoking man

OMFG!
The only people who spin that line are alt right looney tunes.

#23 Stone on 08.12.18 at 4:23 pm

Talking about selling real estate. My former landlord is selling their rental house now that I moved on to something a bit better to rent. They were boasting how they got the New Home HST credit making it look like they were using it as a principal residence, didn’t declare any of the rental income nor have plans to declare any capital gains from the sale of the property. Well, I thought I’d help them out in that regard and let CRA know on their behalf. I pay all my taxes and everyone else should as well. This may cost them between $50k-$100k. That’s money everyone else needs to foot because they want to cheat the system. No thanks.

Should you find yourself in the same situation with a boastful (stupid) landlord, do them a favour and use the link below.

https://www.canada.ca/en/revenue-agency/programs/about-canada-revenue-agency-cra/suspected-tax-cheating-in-canada-overview.html

#24 arfmoocat on 08.12.18 at 4:37 pm

Moved out at 18 and shared a house with two other guys, never looked back. I’m 62

#25 akashic record on 08.12.18 at 4:48 pm

#74 NoName

In 1992 George Soros made 1 billion dollar profit shorting the pound, which helped the British economy and improved the financial well-being of the UK people.

For all this goodness Mr. Soros granted himself the privilege to influence politics in Great Britain ever since, as if he was someone with a right to cast vote.

Luckily, George Soros was born a few hundred kilometers West from the borders of the USSR and he didn’t make his fortune there, otherwise his political interference would be seen as an attack of a Russian agent on Western democracy.

He would have been indicted by now by special prosecutor Muller, and certainly couldn’t spend a dime trying to invalidate the Brexit vote of the UK people, without the danger of getting sent to prison.

#26 young & foolish on 08.12.18 at 4:51 pm

” .. prices will not retract .. ” —- LaPage

Well, if real assets are said to protect value during inflationary times, should the above statement not maintain some credence?

#27 Zapstrap on 08.12.18 at 5:00 pm

I didn’t know you were allowed to say Temagami on line.

#28 Yvonne Cunnington on 08.12.18 at 5:06 pm

Correction needed in the last paragraph. Given the population of Canada, there cannot be 30 million boomers.

According to the 2011 Census, 9.6 million persons, or close to 3 Canadians out of 10 (29%), were baby boomers. Besides the number of births between 1946 and 1965, this generation has benefited from sustained immigration levels since the end of the 1980s in Canada.Dec 21, 2015
Generations in Canada – Statistics Canada
https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2011/…/98-311-x2011003_2-eng.cfm

Of course, it is 32% of the population, not 30 million. – Garth

#29 young & foolish on 08.12.18 at 5:24 pm

“Well, I thought I’d help them out in that regard and let CRA know on their behalf.” — Stone

That’s it folks, the Stasi mentality (mass surveillance enhanced by ratting on your neighbours) coming for us, where we turn on each other while the elites leave us in the dust.

#30 Long-Time Lurker on 08.12.18 at 5:28 pm

I read a book called “Movers of Men and Mountains” about the construction equipment mogul Robert LeTourneau. LeTourneau founded a college in Texas and eventually sold his patents to Caterpillar. Back before World War 2 and the Boomers it seems that three generations living under one roof was the norm. The economic boom after WW2 may have allowed the Boomer generation to experiment with the nuclear family (amongst other things).

Last week, I heard that restaurants in Van are having trouble getting workers because of wages and affordability. The restaurant association spokesperson cited giving better scheduling and hiring marginalized workers but didn’t mention any wage increases. This week I heard that S’Bagels is cutting service hours for the same reason. S’Bagel’s looks to be trying to increase efficiency to solve the problem while the restaurant association is trying to get blood from a stone.

To keep this short, if businesses can’t find a solution to the worker shortage, they’ll shut down. With no shops in the neighbourhood the value of the residential real estate will drop. Eventually an equilibrium of affordability will result. So, the free market could correct itself without any government intervention.

Businesses shutting down because of lack of affordable rents has already been happening in New York City. I read about that last year.

https://wolfstreet.com/2017/06/24/haunting-photos-of-shuttered-stores-on-madison-avenue/

#31 The real Kip on 08.12.18 at 5:33 pm

In 1974 I was the ripe old age of 15 and my dad called me to the living room and said “Kip, you only skip school, smoke weed and won’t listen to anyone now go upstairs and pack your gear and get out.” I said “what?” He said, “if I have to tell you one more time then you’ll go out the front window.”

Years later when we were speaking again my father said “Kip, I knew you struggled with work, money etc. but you never came back looking for money or help from me.” I said nope, no way that was happening!

Many Boomers can tell similar stories and you are right Garth, we went out our own way, learned from our own mistakes, figured a path forward and did it. There will be some Boomers in the situation you described tonight for sure but many more have good pensions, paid off homes and will once again be most likely to succeed. I retire in three months and can’t live anywhere cheaper than this paid off house.

Oh, and for the record, I have to say, thanks dad, best thing you could have done, I needed that.

#32 Tony on 08.12.18 at 5:33 pm

Re: #1 Honky Donkey Blues on 08.12.18 at 2:21 pm

Too many go bankrupt and lose everything by taking out a reverse mortgage.

#33 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.12.18 at 5:34 pm

@#24 arfmoocat
“Moved out at 18 and shared a house with two other guys, never looked back. I’m 62”

+++++
Still shacked up with the two other guys?
(not that theres anything wrong with that)

#34 Parksville Prankster on 08.12.18 at 5:49 pm

Thank goodness we have new Canadians coming in to offset those shuffling off this mortal coil. According to BMO and the Huff, there’s clear sailing ahead…

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2018/08/11/population-growth-canada-real-estate_a_23500516/?utm_hp_ref=ca-business

#35 Danny on 08.12.18 at 5:53 pm

” Insane government regs and taxes have skewered the market, making cheap houses and condos into unaffordable assets and retarding the entire market.”

Well Garth now that “I’m for the little guy ” Ontario Government….shows its real fangs against the low income and some very unfortunates……we will have to see if their stay out of the real estate market ends up making housing affordable. How long should we wait…..two years!

Of course by then rent control will probably be gone…so that Ford’s slum landlords can drive greed to newer depths on the back of tenants.

You have rightly directed your readers to spread the word to rent instead of buy…..but Ford’s latest on housing seems to me to be opposed to your wisdom… with his real estate boards buddies pushing “dirt” and buying concrete and glass and further keep misinterpreting the real figures….from the public…will be a challenge to you.

This blogs has very important figures…..but in my mind when governments says they want to stay out of the “housing market “….they are really still getting involved big time.

I think that your analysis and observation, Garth , that shows rent over buying is more sound in this over inflated housing prices condition……. it will be getting harder and more frustrating in Ontario ….for you as a professional in the housing market and for people looking for a roof over their heads….especially if rent costs skyrocket.

Isn’t that a grand plan by Ford’s funding supporters….drive rent up to make people buy instead. What a pickle!

A majority government from only 24 % (40 % of 60%)of the electorate?……there in lies the rub!

King Ford and his iron fist and now with his “skit ” fake interviews by his staff ….showing…..what daily…like the “Howdy Doody”….show…..puppets that talk with a frozen smile.

#36 The Real Mark on 08.12.18 at 5:54 pm

I live in my mom’s basement and it’s a phenomenal life. Why would I leave when all my meals are covered and the only woman who could ever love me is just a holler away?

#37 Ron on 08.12.18 at 5:59 pm

Higher rates are correlated with lower home prices but also with higher economic and wage growth, which is positive for RE.

So which of these competing forces will have a stronger impact on home prices? Higher rates or higher growth?

Wages would have to double to justify prices in the GTA or YVR. How likely is that? – Garth

#38 Linda on 08.12.18 at 5:59 pm

One wonders whether the next generations are the least bit interested in purchasing these Boomer homes, many of which are older than the prospective purchasers & may lack the mod cons they expect. Given the less than stellar Boomer finances cited in Garth’s post – 20% have saved nothing! – 40% intend to ‘live’ on CPP/OAS!! – the sale of the house or sucking out all equity by whatever method is indeed the only option that permits retirement to occur. As always, the first out the gate will likely reap the biggest reward financially. Those selling later will be competing with motivated sellers & housing prices will reflect that new reality.

As for those who do sell, if they are part of the cohort who have saved nothing it is unlikely they will improve how they handle their finances. ‘But they’ll get CPP/OAS which is ‘X”. Funny how all the financial examples regarding CPP presume that whoever is receiving it will get ‘full’ CPP. Like any other pension plan, the payment you receive is based on 1) how many years you contributed & 2) how much you contributed. Unless you have contributed the maximum CPP contribution for 39 out of 47 years (from age 18 to 65) AND don’t take CPP until age 65 you will not get ‘the maximum’ with one possible exception. That is if your pension partner dies & you receive the survivor’s benefit. That circumstance may be enough to ensure you do receive maximum CPP benefits even if your own work history/contributions fall short.

#39 Gravy Train on 08.12.18 at 6:03 pm

#2 Bytor the Snow Dog on 08.12.18 at 2:22 pm
“Jess had it wrong, and so do you. Asbestos is NOT a ‘manufactured chemical substance.’”

You didn’t pass Chem 12 in high school, did you? :)

#40 renter in Surrey on 08.12.18 at 6:14 pm

it is happening

I can see prices going down in Langley

https://www.zolo.ca/langley-real-estate/9421-202a-street

at this rate we will be back to 2015 prices in just 15-20 years, maybe

yahoo!

#41 OttawaMike on 08.12.18 at 6:19 pm

Alternate Royal Lepage Headline:

Reverend Jim Jones of Royal Lepage declares purple Koolaid is refreshing and nutritious.

#42 young & foolish on 08.12.18 at 6:32 pm

“So, the free market could correct itself without any government intervention.” — Lurker

Nothing seems to focus the mind (not to mention individual initiative) more than when people take ownership of their own affairs.

#43 Bytor the Snow Dog on 08.12.18 at 6:34 pm

#31 The real Kip on 08.12.18 at 5:33 pm sez:

“In 1974 I was the ripe old age of 15 and my dad called me to the living room and said “Kip, you only skip school, smoke weed and won’t listen to anyone now go upstairs and pack your gear and get out.” I said “what?” He said, “if I have to tell you one more time then you’ll go out the front window.”

Years later when we were speaking again my father said “Kip, I knew you struggled with work, money etc. but you never came back looking for money or help from me.” I said nope, no way that was happening!

Many Boomers can tell similar stories and you are right Garth, we went out our own way, learned from our own mistakes, figured a path forward and did it. There will be some Boomers in the situation you described tonight for sure but many more have good pensions, paid off homes and will once again be most likely to succeed. I retire in three months and can’t live anywhere cheaper than this paid off house.

Oh, and for the record, I have to say, thanks dad, best thing you could have done, I needed that.”
———————————–

Same here, but my Dad had a little more patience. I was 18.

You can’t do that now though as today’s special snowflakes will call 5-0 or the local Children’s Aid and you’re going to jail for abuse.

IMO more of these adult children need tough love.

#44 Smoking Man on 08.12.18 at 6:38 pm

#22 conan on 08.12.18 at 4:11 pm
Hitler was a socialist. – smoking man

OMFG!
The only people who spin that line are alt right looney tunes.
…….

Educate yourself.
https://youtu.be/m6bSsaVL6gA

#45 The Real Mark on 08.12.18 at 6:38 pm

The only possible conclusion: stay in mom’s basement as long as possible.

That’s exactly what I’m doing

I told you so

#46 Leo Trollstoy on 08.12.18 at 6:41 pm

Hitler was rejected by the far right

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/30/hitler-joined-nazis-only-after-another-far-right-group-shunned-him

Good job liberals!

#47 Karl on 08.12.18 at 6:43 pm

According to a recent article by the Financial Post, boomers are renovating, not downsizing. The wrinkles are also living a lot longer. I think you might keep waiting for the second part of your prediction back from 1995.

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/business.financialpost.com/real-estate/most-boomers-plan-to-stay-put-renovate-rather-than-move-in-next-5-years-study/amp

#48 Nonplused on 08.12.18 at 6:48 pm

Brian Ripley through out a new term I kind of like, not sure if it’s original but I hadn’t seen it before:

“priced in”

Definition: The opposite of “priced out”, you own a home you can no longer afford to sell.

I wonder how many people are “priced in” and if that will slow the number of listings, providing a sort of false bottom to the market. The real estate market has always depended on appreciation to cover realty fees, maintenance, and various other expenses because very few people have that kind of money in the bank to spend on realtors, new roofs, what have you. So I can imagine a person who has little to no equity in his/her house being unable to sell, or even maintain it. They simply can’t afford it. Therefor they do not list, even if they want to. They don’t fix the roof, there is no money in the HELOC. Etc.

#49 NOSTRADAMUS on 08.12.18 at 6:48 pm

Garth, you must be mellowing!
You only took two shots at my dear friend Donald in todays post. Moving on.
The idea that government has a responsibility to provide everyone a house is economically insane.
Everyone wants free stuff until they are told the cost.
There is no such thing as “free housing” “free medical care” or “free anything else.
Untold millions of dollars have been spent funding homes for the homeless, and yet yearly the numbers are rising.
That is expected behavior, homeless people from all over will attempt to get to a place that wants to hand out free housing, free everything. Some people object to the subsidized housing cost story . I do not know the true cost of “free ” housing for all and neither does anyone else. But I do know that hundreds of government sponsored “affordable housing programs ” including “low cost” government loans drove up the cost. Now, I am on a roll. Tuition support did the same for the cost of education.
Government involvement in anything is bound to raise the price, cause massive tax hikes, or both.
Perhaps on the next election ballot, ” Question, Are you in favor of providing free shelter to the homeless if your personal taxes were to double or triple. Hmmmm, Another spoiled ballot. Governments by and large are economically illiterate, all socialists are, by definition.

#50 Ron on 08.12.18 at 6:55 pm

#37 Ron on 08.12.18 at 5:59 pm
Higher rates are correlated with lower home prices but also with higher economic and wage growth, which is positive for RE.

So which of these competing forces will have a stronger impact on home prices? Higher rates or higher growth?

Wages would have to double to justify prices in the GTA or YVR. How likely is that? – Garth

——————————————

Wages do justify today’s prices by virtue of being able to service today’s mortgage payments with minuscule delinquency rates. The question is, which is rising faster, wages or mortgage payments?

Mortgage delinquencies have always been a meaningless statistic in Canada. Look elsewhere for reality. – Garth

#51 Ken M. on 08.12.18 at 6:58 pm

For a house-rich, investment-poor wrinklie to downsize there needs to be a sale first, then a purchase. More than 1,000 Canadian boomers retire every day, a number which will be matched every 24 hours for at least another 19 years. Twenty per cent of those people have saved nothing. Nothing. Over 40% intend to live primarily on government pogey – CPP and OAS crumbs.
——————————-
Can live on JD and other cheap booze too by what I read here. Can always live in the theirs kids basement.

#52 joblo on 08.12.18 at 7:15 pm

Wuz in the Big Smoke over the weekend.
Million CDN pesos for a home, no way.
City smells like garbage, wanna get out of town? 401 blocked, try 403?
Parking lot in Burlington, and a special treat, in the municipal parking lot off Yonge human feces as the homeless use it as a bathroom.
No thanks what a world class city, not.
Ya think the politcos can fix, doubtful.

#53 Re 30. All time lurker on 08.12.18 at 7:15 pm

You’re wrong about the condo prices in van dropping due to closing stores beacuse the condos are largely empty.
However, since the true reason for that is not allowed to be discussed here let’s just leave leave it at that.

#54 Dying of Smoke in Kelowna on 08.12.18 at 7:32 pm

So, I am fit and healthy and cannot leave my house due to thick smoke that makes it feel you are in a house fire everywhere outside.

The sun has been blocked for a week or so, but now it is really bad.

You can’t even see 100 feet.

And there is nowhere to go. This stretches from Osoyoos to Kamloops.

Be prepared to choke for any boomers thinking of moving here. I think I would check into the hospital if I was older.

Summer isn’t what is used to be. Same thing in California. Every year!

This is when fresh Vancouver ocean air is priceless.

Two things people need: air and water.

The interior will give you asthma and polluted water / water advisories year round.

#55 Smoking Man Visits Kelowna on 08.12.18 at 7:34 pm

Realizes too much smoke.

#56 How do realtors pitch those interior homes? on 08.12.18 at 7:38 pm

I never saw anything about smoke in those nice magazines published about the Interior and how awesome it is.

And here we have a back deck, which is hard to see through the smoke where you can come out on all summer long and smoke for free by just breathing the never ending smoke.

And you car will hidden by the beautiful ash that snows weekly.

Man, nothing stokes me up like end of the world looking wasteland.

Better buy now before this place is vacated like Cali.

#57 Mean Gene on 08.12.18 at 7:38 pm

I work with a Boomer financial disaster, 70 years old collecting CPP and OAS and still working full time at her 70k a year snivel service job even though she is fully qualified for the DB pension (35+ years of service) reason for not retiring is because she can’t afford it and retirement equals death.

No wonder young people can’t start their careers with the old and busted in the way… btw, both knees replaced, wrist shot, packing on weight and has problems walking. Makes a lot of mistakes doing her work ect.

Eliminating mandatory retirement at 65 may have been a bad idea.

#58 The real Kip on 08.12.18 at 7:48 pm

#43 Bytor the Snow Dog on 08.12.18 at 6:34 pm

“Same here, but my Dad had a little more patience. I was 18.

You can’t do that now though as today’s special snowflakes will call 5-0 or the local Children’s Aid and you’re going to jail for abuse.

IMO more of these adult children need tough love.”

Oh yea, the party was definitely over for me. No more easy weed money when I had to pay for the roof over my head. I quickly learned that you had to stay in school when under 16 or they’d toss me in reform school so I spent 8 months in a boy’s home until my 16th birthday, then I quit school and went to work. A-holes couldn’t toss me in reform school then!

There’s an easy fix for the basement dwellers, start packing!

#59 young & foolish on 08.12.18 at 7:53 pm

“There is no such thing as “free housing” “free medical care” or “free anything else.” — Nostradamus

This is true. Ditto for economic “growth”. There is always a price … for us lately it’s been increasing debt mixed with share buy-backs. Rates increasing, soon equities decreasing. Turkey today, who knows who else tomorrow. Maybe Bogle is right …. expect 4% over the next decade.

#60 -=jwk=- on 08.12.18 at 7:54 pm

Same here, but my Dad had a little more patience. I was 18.

You can’t do that now though as today’s special snowflakes will call 5-0 or the local Children’s Aid and you’re going to jail for abuse.

IMO more of these adult children need tough love.

This has been addressed ad-nauseum. Over and over. You got kicked out, joined a union and on your single salary bought a house , a car, and raised two kids. Good for you. That isn’t possible today. Anywhere. “Tough love” isn’t going to realign house prices with inflation, or get high school jobs back to the salaries you enjoyed. Or make it as easy to find a permanent job as you enjoyed.
Or lower tuition to the amount you enjoyed (as the case may be). etc, etc.

#61 Fiendish Thingy on 08.12.18 at 7:57 pm

This boomer sold in 2010, and is happily renting until around Spring 2020, when there should be plenty of listings for the picking…

#62 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.12.18 at 7:59 pm

@#38 Linda
“One wonders whether the next generations are the least bit interested in purchasing these Boomer homes….”
+++++
Nah, once the home inspections are done and Millenials realize the basement foundations, the driveways, the outside front stairs, the chimneys all contain concrete with silica……
Game over.
Its might as well be a toxic waste site full of asbestos with all that potential silica lurking in plain sight just waiting to jump into your lungs……
Egad!
What to do?
What WILL we do!
Epoxy!
Yes! Of course. That new alternative to silica based products. Thank God we have epoxy to fall back on. Now we can continue building our new epoxy houses with no worries about silica. Damn silica. What were we thinking? Playing with dynamite. Fools! Idiots!. Now we’re safe!
We have epoxy based oil byproducts to save us!
Thank God in his infinite wisdom.

Until WCB and the “experts” deem epoxy a lung cancer causing agent in about 50 years……
Back to the drawing board.

#63 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.12.18 at 8:04 pm

@#57 Mean genes
“Eliminating mandatory retirement at 65 may have been a bad idea.’
++++

I believe the Inuit have(had?) a better solution.
Taking the grandparents for a long walk in a snowstorm and let the polar bears do the rest…..
Unfortunately global warming seems to be eradicating THAT tasty bear alternative.

jane24 take note. Dont move to Inuvik with the grandkids.

#64 John Brydle on 08.12.18 at 8:06 pm

Vancouver Condo Prices are Declining

This simply verifies what Garth has been saying for a long time now

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=achQdayq750&app=desktop

#65 Gravy Train on 08.12.18 at 8:07 pm

#44 Smoking Man on 08.12.18 at 6:38 pm
“#22 conan on 08.12.18 at 4:11 pm
Hitler was a socialist. – smoking man

OMFG!
The only people who spin that line are alt right looney tunes.
…….

Educate yourself.”

Hey, Smokey. Were you at the neo-Nazi rally today in DC? :)

#66 young & foolish on 08.12.18 at 8:07 pm

“Wages would have to double to justify prices in the GTA or YVR. How likely is that? – Garth”

Not any more likely than wages can justify prices in other large and popular cities around the world.

#67 Shawn Allen on 08.12.18 at 8:12 pm

Reverse Mortgages

#1 Honky Donkey Blues on 08.12.18 at 2:21 pm said:

“I’m guessing the first strategy for a home owner living on OAS/CPP is to try and supplement with a reverse mortgage? How will the RM industry be affected?”

*************************************
That sounds correct. If a lot more people start looking for monthly payments from reverse mortgages then maybe the rates will come down somewhat closer to those of regular mortgages. The big banks could get into the game.

I think it is a reasonable solution for some people, especially if the interest rate is fair, and I think you are right more people will do it.

Impact, less houses for sale than otherwise, prices higher than otherwise.

#68 I ask the questions on 08.12.18 at 8:14 pm

Hold on a sec, if we are entering a inflation era, isn’t real estate supposed to be a hedge against inflation?

#69 Howard on 08.12.18 at 8:15 pm

A new survey (Royal LePage) found, astonishingly, 44% of Boomers still have children living with them..

How is that “astonishing”?

Most younger Boomers would still have many kids currently in the 12-22 age range.

#70 young & foolish on 08.12.18 at 8:16 pm

“Wuz in the Big Smoke over the weekend ….
No thanks what a world class city, not.” — Joblo

Yup, spoken like a true traveller. As if the streets are any more polished, people are friendlier, and the rents reasonable in Paris, London, Barcelona, Warsaw, NY, etc. I’ve heard this before, but it is always confirmed for me when I read this blog: Canadians LOVE to hate their urban centres like nobody else!

#71 genbizx on 08.12.18 at 8:24 pm

Talking to boomers, I think way less are looking to downsize than conventional wisdom suggests. At least not until health concerns make it impossible. The insane valuations of crappy condos or poorly built particleboard boxes two feet from neighbouring homes don’t help. Better to stay in a paid for (or near paid) home and get help. Then make the move to a seniors resort er home and hope you don’t outlive the money. If housing prices decline more affordable seniors dwellings will be the pressing need. The rest of housing will levitate on realtor fiction for a while but if anyone thinks debt loads can continue doesn’t understand economics. Either raise now or allow debt to outpace gdp beyond the current 250% worldwide and make the explosion bigger. Pain is coming one way or another…just hope that China has enough control over its ridiculous house of cards to avoid implosion in its massive underground debt market.

#72 Rain on 08.12.18 at 8:25 pm

#9 Wishful thinking. You must be missing the numerous houses with For Sale signs that have been up for months. Even condo sales seem to have slowed down. The market is collapsing in Burnaby.

#73 akashic record on 08.12.18 at 8:27 pm

#60 -=jwk=-

IMO more of these adult children need tough love.

In my experience the best thing parents can give to their kids, young or adult, is unconditional love and trust.

In my experience, after that, everything falls at the right place at the right time.

It’s a great mystery how. And one can’t have enough gratitude for it.

#74 RICK on 08.12.18 at 8:33 pm

There are more millennials (aged 22 to 37) than depleted hippies (54 to 72). In fact, mills are the biggest demographic in Canadian history. But the contrast with the old guys is dramatic.
Ok, I’m in neither group; I’m 38 to 53. How does this affect Me?

#75 Dolce Vita on 08.12.18 at 8:33 pm

Looked at the demographics back in the 80’s and my cohorts free spending, few savings & no other pension ways – concluded the same (more jaded than you Garth and at an earlier age).

Retired Boomer homily nowadays:

“Not me, I’m not one of those pension and savings failures.”

-The debt stats say otherwise.
-Boomer finance & pension stats say otherwise.
-Ego and Save Face human nature say otherwise – hang on to the bitter end…continue to live the lie.
-HELOC money is not infinite & decreasing as RE asset values go down…will be eaten up by SFH city taxes, maintenance, etc. fast enough and Boomer free spending ways continue (renovations, trips – see Ego and Save Face).
-CPP & OAS only pension cash will be eaten up even faster by SFH home expenses.

Inevitable RE price collapse starts now as market flooded with property’s listed by “motivated sellers” (should say instead “Motivated Boomer retirees running out of HELOC money.”).

Simple Math and Stats numbers do not lie, people do (for the Commenters here stating that the Boomers they know have no plans to sell their homes in the foreseeable future…probably from Boomer children hoping to inherit property).

Garth is correct. That time is now.

Have faith in 70% of Boomer retirees, they’ll burn through that ever dwindling HELOC money fast enough. 40% in even deeper dung, financial basket cases.

Let the games begin.

#76 Reximus on 08.12.18 at 8:34 pm

9 in 10 seniors plan to stay in their homes while retired

https://globalnews.ca/news/4337529/senior-homes-retirement-young-homebuyers/

The poll does not say that. By the way, it was done by the reverse mortgage outfit, HomeEquity Bank. Are you normally this gullible? – Garth

#77 Jimers on 08.12.18 at 8:41 pm

At the start of my last year of high-school my Dad said when your done your can either go live at university or get a job and move out of the house.

#78 Game Over on 08.12.18 at 8:47 pm

@ #50 Ron

The low delinquency rate is probably a symptom of the amount of liquidity right now in the housing market. When the credit dries up that will probably reverse. I don’t think wages justify the mortgage payments right now with the proof I think in the growth of LOC and HELOCs. People can’t afford everything so they are making up the difference by putting it on the “the tab”. I think eventually it might catch up to them if the there is a meaningful decline in credit or house prices.

#79 D Apostrophe on 08.12.18 at 8:47 pm

Hard to imagine how stupid you have to believe the realtors of Toronto.

#80 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.12.18 at 8:54 pm

@#69 Howard
“Most younger Boomers would still have many kids currently in the 12-22 age range.”
+++++

I have always considered Boomers people born between the years 1945 and 1965.

Which would make the ‘younger boomers” 53 -58?

Popping out kids at the ages of 35 – 41?

Ahhhhh, nothing like living with hormonal teens that you have zero in common with in your retirement years……

yep.
Thats MY dream retirement……….

#81 Smoking Man on 08.12.18 at 8:58 pm

Gravy Train on 08.12.18 at 8:07 pm
#44 Smoking Man on 08.12.18 at 6:38 pm
“#22 conan on 08.12.18 at 4:11 pm
Hitler was a socialist. – smoking man

OMFG!
The only people who spin that line are alt right looney tunes.
…….

Educate yourself.”

Hey, Smokey. Were you at the neo-Nazi rally today in DC? :)
……

Right, associate opinions not in line with yours as being Nazi. Hum? what play book did that come from I wonder.

I assumed you were intelagent. But this post clearly shows when you can’t compete on facts you toss out garbage like this.

What happed to my original link. Conveniently removed with this post.. Why don’t you comment on the content of the video link you removed.

I know why. You are not skilled enough to argue against its content..

#82 Stone on 08.12.18 at 9:02 pm

29 young & foolish on 08.12.18 at 5:24 pm
“Well, I thought I’d help them out in that regard and let CRA know on their behalf.” — Stone

That’s it folks, the Stasi mentality (mass surveillance enhanced by ratting on your neighbours) coming for us, where we turn on each other while the elites leave us in the dust.

————

I was wondering who would be young and foolish enough to make such a remark. Remember stupid, everyone has to cover the shortfall these tax frauds commit. Commit fraud, pay the piper.

No sympathy here. I know where you stand though. With the stupid. How much experience do you have living under a Stasi style regime? I’m betting none. Big talk, little substance. Typical of the stupid.

#83 Ace Goodheart on 08.12.18 at 9:05 pm

So when you’re building a motor, there is one thing That’s hard to get. That thing is oxygen. A motor is just a big air pump. The more air you can get through, the more fuel you can burn, and the more power you get.

Oxygen is a gas. Cool it down, you have more of it. Compress it and you have more. Compress super cooled oxygen and you have way more than you otherwise would. Hence the turbo combined with the intercooler.

The one thing you can never get enough of in motor design and building is oxygen. Thus modern engine design revolves around getting as much oxygen into the engine as you can, as fast as you can.

An economy is the same. There are always things that you need to make it run, that are essential and that you can’t get enough of.

So to figure out where things are going, all you need to know is, what are the rare things that your economy needs? And then of course, who controls them.

The answer can be weirder than you think. Like my engine example, the rare thing is air, plentiful and free everywhere, but very difficult to get into your engine.

#84 Dolce Vita on 08.12.18 at 9:12 pm

Labour Force Survey July stats.

Almost all in MSM cooing about the 54,100 jobs created in July, very low unemployment at 5.8% with the only negative being most of the jobs were Part-Time.

Talk about creative writing by the MSM.

Part Time jobs +82,000.
Full Time jobs -28,000.

Public Sector jobs +49,600.
Private Sector jobs +5,200.
“Self-Employed” jobs -700.

92% of the jobs came from Big G.

How very Keynesian. Big G jobs increase mostly from Education and Health Care.

A job is better than no job and high unemployment I suppose. The summary numbers do not lie.

I read in the underlying numbers a skittish Private sector happy to replace full time jobs with part time jobs to cut costs and at the drop of a hat.

I read a Big G goosing the economy with suspiciously high job creation (look at Education and Health Care June 2018 or July 2017 numbers vs. July 2018). Lazarus of Bethany.

#85 Vampire studies on 08.12.18 at 9:17 pm

39 G train. O you’re a tough one! Not really though. It is just a definition, so just chill for a bit. What you are not considering is the logic I present that allows one to determine whether something is manufactured. Lets look at the well example. The groundwater is not accessible to humans directly. We may use a mechanical drill to find it, an and electric pump to extract it. Remember in the definition, the word “make” is used. I say we have not made the water (nor the asbestos), so I say it is not manufactured.

I think you’ll find the word “produced” more commonly used. Canada “produces” oil, lumber, gold, wheat and used to be a big producer of asbestos. All go through processes or refinements, but by my reasoning, they are not manufactured. Hydro electricity takes some thought . Even though we are only converting energy, and not really “making” it, the new form is very different from before, so I might consider that manufacturing.

Hewers of wood, drawers of water……..

#86 Annick Dotal on 08.12.18 at 9:23 pm

Not many in my close circle of boomer friends have downsized within the last 5 years. Of 10 boomer households (ages 60-68), only 1 downsized and that was due to divorce. 3 actually upsized and 2 bought cottages in addition to their main residence!

Wait. – Garth

#87 Howard on 08.12.18 at 9:26 pm

#14 mike from mtl on 08.12.18 at 3:22 pm
#8 Catalyst on 08.12.18 at 2:47 pm
The downsizing wave is still 10 years off. It is a myth in my opinion that boomers are willing to downsize from their mcmansions to closets – it just doesnt happen in practice until medical problems really start to mount.

////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Spot on.

Not a single boomer I know has any sort of plans to downsize. Even when health and mobility issues arise they are too damn proud and entitled to ‘step down the ladder’. Move to a retirement community? You nuts?

Home care nursing I think will become a huge industry.

—————————————————————

I think both of you are missing Garth’s point. He is talking about Boomers who will HAVE TO sell and downsize as they have no savings. They won’t have much choice unless they want to eat Kraft Dinner every night with the OAS money.

For those Boomers who have sufficient savings, I agree with what you’ve stated – you will have to pry away their McMansions from their cold dead hands.

#88 april on 08.12.18 at 9:49 pm

#87 – It only takes a small percentage of people who have to sell, and who will be forced to lower their prices which will bring down the rest.

#89 Steven Rowlandson on 08.12.18 at 9:58 pm

Well Ladies and Gents I think we are living in the human version of John Calhoun’s Mouse utopia experiment.

TL;DR – What Was the Mouse Utopia?
https://youtu.be/HfNKFvHtA3g
Death Squared
https://youtu.be/qDUUpMt1ruw

#90 acdel on 08.12.18 at 10:09 pm

There is a large proportion of boomers that have to sell as Garth related to.
I am a Gen-X er; contrary to what many beleive we got our asses kicked.
But I do feel for mills and I fear for today’s kids; when prices of a litre of gas can go up 15 cents a night, we can all relate on how expensive everything is out there, lots of lost dreams out there. I fear for the future; especially for Canada.

The electorates are only in it for themselves not what is good for the country; I am just dismayed by this, what a selfish country. Good-luck; I am retiring elsewhere and I will let the door hit me in the ass on the way out! What a shame!!!

#91 Vision on 08.12.18 at 10:11 pm

#29 young & foolish on 08.12.18 at 5:24 pm
“Well, I thought I’d help them out in that regard and let CRA know on their behalf.” — Stone

That’s it folks, the Stasi mentality (mass surveillance enhanced by ratting on your neighbours) coming for us, where we turn on each other while the elites leave us in the dust.
……
I disagree. If people cheat the system, we need to report them. Too many Canadians are working for cash money and do not pay their fair share while others are taxed to the hilt.

#92 Dolce Vita on 08.12.18 at 10:13 pm

Justin and Chrystia very quiet as of late.

Well, except for Chrystia going full Trump with Twitter Diplomacy vis-à-vis the KSA.

Justin and Chrystia a long time ago adamant that Canada and Mexico will stand together in NAFTA negotiations with the US and there will be no 5 year American sunshine clause.

Fast forward to today.

Trump conducting bilateral NAFTA negotiations with Mexico.

Canada on the sidelines in the mean time.

What happened to bravado Justin’s usual bombast on NAFTA matters since G7 in Canada? Good he is learning to keep his mouth shut, for once.

In the last week and yet again, Trump threatens Canada with auto tariffs if he does not get his way, from his “real Donald” Twitter account.

At least he is consistent. Instead, we have inconsistent bravado people at the helm that are slowly coming to their senses and beginning to understand the witticism:

“The tail does not wag the dog” (more like pit bull with Trump).

I hope this ends well for us. 25% auto tariffs will most certainly wipe the smiles off of the faces of ON voters and guarantee a Liberal defeat in the next election (not to mention put a hole in our GDP not only numerically but as in doom and gloom).

If Trump is really as nasty as some say he is and he is certainly no fanboy of Justin’s – what an opportunity to get rid of Justin for 4 years at least.

If so, pity Canadian auto workers caught in the cross fire whose only sins were being hard working and putting in an honest days work.

What a messed up World this could come to be for Canada because of 1 person S. of the border.

#93 Millennial Realist on 08.12.18 at 10:13 pm

Generational economics and politics will certainly make a huge impact, in that you are very correct, Garth.

However some more precision is needed in dividing up the groups and how they may differ. As a millennial child of parents (and in-laws) from the early and mid 1960s, these folks have always been clear to me and other kids about how they were not ‘Boomers’ in any way. They had none of the advantages of those born before about 1960 or so, and most have had much more precarious financial lives as a result. Hence, the name “Generation X”, (roughly born from 1961 to 1981 according to Wiki) the group considered sort of invisible but hugely different from the Boomers in all meaningful ways.

I think a lot of them have finally jumped into the housing market fairly recently, so it will be interesting to see how this group impacts or possibly stalls the expected downturn.

As for the actual Boomers, a huge number are now in their late 60s and 70s, literally in their last 5-10 years of life and for most health is already deteriorating, so things are even worse than you suggest for many.

The crisis you correctly project for many Boomers is already here for lots, and will probably hit even earlier than five years out. The only question I see is how many Gen X types will be buying, or dumping, real estate during this time and how this may muddy the waters of any forecasts.

#94 Sam the Sham on 08.12.18 at 10:23 pm

#49 NOSTRADAMUS on 08.12.18 at 6:48 pm

“There is no such thing as “free housing” “free medical care” or “free anything else.”
————————————————
I certainly hope that this isn’t some sort of jab at our wonderful culturally enriching “irregular” migrants flooding into this county. That would not be acceptable!!

#95 pay your taxes on 08.12.18 at 10:31 pm

hem. So it infers moisters should be buying now before downsizing Boomers”

Royal le Page implies, you infer.

#96 young & foolish on 08.12.18 at 10:36 pm

“Big talk, little substance. Typical of the stupid.” — Stone

Credulous and self-righteous, just enough to be dangerous. I am sure glad I am not your neighbour.

#97 Oft deleted much maligned stock.picker on 08.12.18 at 10:56 pm

Vancouver Health is forced to go public on the raw human feces on area beaches…..again.

https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/e-coli-prompts-no-swimming-advisories-at-three-more-vancouver-beaches

It’s not just the water, it’s deep in the sand…..it’s dangerous to walk there….yuccchhhhh!!!!

Oh….and Trudeau lashes out at the Mexican President…behind his back….like he did to Trump…..after calling him a gentleman to the Mexican press…he stabs him in the back for the CBC……coward.

#98 Jorge on 08.12.18 at 10:59 pm

West Island Montreal prices are out of control.

We recently made an offer to purchase on a decent but small 4 bedroom across from a park for 620k, and ultimately pulled out as we came across some mold in thr roof and other issues during the inspection. Apparently, the seller fixed the mold for 3k and ended up selling for 660k, 30k over asking! Guess we missed out huh?

Well over 20% of buyers are foreign, and that includes Americans and people from Dubai, not just Chinese. It’s really hard for us locals paying 50% in taxes to keep up. It’s a crazy market over here right now!

#99 Jorge on 08.12.18 at 11:03 pm

Here’s an article talking more about the current situation in Montreal: https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=http%3A//www.lapresse.ca/affaires/economie/immobilier/201808/12/01-5192786-une-rare-situation-de-guerres-dencheres-immobilieres-a-montreal.php

#100 mike from mtl on 08.12.18 at 11:05 pm

#87 Howard on 08.12.18 at 9:26 pm
///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Again that would be few and far in-between.

Any boomer selling ‘the house’ because they ‘have to’ would have admit failure, exhausting all other avenues. In their time, ‘the house’ is an object to display their successes. Anecdotally everyone I know in this age group either (at least one) a HELOC, collecting CPP/QPP, pension of some description, working somehow until death. Zero have any sort of savings worth mentioning.

Boomers put everything they had into housing and it’s quite obvious.

#101 Vampire studies on 08.12.18 at 11:13 pm

60 =jwk=

I agree things are not the same. That doesn’t mean they couldn’t be, or even just different than what they currently are.

You could skip the university degree, maybe get a certificate, or be an apprentice. you could live in a
crappy dingy house with no heat pump, one bath. Skip the car, or maybe get a beater that you can work on yourself. No lattes, no cable, no iPhone. (Still don’t have one) You could always take a second job (bartender, janitor) for an evening or two each week. Or work in some remote place doing a tough job.

One thing I’ve noticed is that places that I would have thought attractive for young people and their families (think small town BC) are having trouble getting workers even for good skilled jobs. They want Van, Vic, Calgary. Why?

And when did two incomes become the necessity we so often hear it is? It’s more like it became the norm, and the economy responded accordingly.

Yes, I am a boomer, but not yet 60 and didn’t get it figured out until I was 30 and started fresh. Have not
had a union job or pension plan since. Wife was
childrearer for 15 years. Still only works part-time.
First house was 1100 sq ft. Town is still small.

Sorry to bore you, but I’ve seen a few young people who have figured it out, and others who have squandered opportunities.

#102 Terry on 08.12.18 at 11:28 pm

“Huh? What happened to that youthful drive to be independent, free and wild oats-sowing?”

What’s happened is they have lost their moral compass and don’t know Jesus.

#103 The Real Mark on 08.12.18 at 11:33 pm

Anyone else notice recently that XIU’s unit issuance is dropping like a stone? Now under 400,000,000 units. The fund’s status as Canada’s largest mutual fund is increasingly seriously in jeopardy with a market capitalization of less than $10B.

Are Canadians losing interest in Canadian ETFs and selling? Is this a bullish sign, that Canadians are so pessimistic about the Canadian stock market that outsized returns, when they happen, are likely to accrue to an increasingly limited subset of the population?

#104 Overheardyou on 08.12.18 at 11:37 pm

To those who keep saying their boomer friends aren’t planning on selling, just wait till they realise they need the cash to sustain their life style. Oh any maybe more drops in the value of their principal retirement egg

#105 Oft deleted much maligned stock picker on 08.13.18 at 12:50 am

DELETED

#106 Oft deleted much maligned stock picker on 08.13.18 at 1:03 am

#7 Vank-its

Same in Richmond where entire sub areas like Thompson are multimillion dollar houses….two Mercedes’s , one Mom, three kids, three to four grandparents but no adult male provider…..claiming under $25,000. Poverty level….as reported by the City of Richmond Mayor. Real mystery. An equal number of properties remain uninhabited with weeds and flyers blowing down the front lawns of neighbors.

#107 AGuyInVancouver on 08.13.18 at 1:24 am

#9 North Burnaby on 08.12.18 at 2:54 pm
I am starting to see the real estate market recovering in Burnaby, Vanciuver still have ways to go though.
– – –

Ha Ha Ha, but No.

Burnaby, with it’s explosion of boxes in the sky in Brentwood and Metrotown is going to be screwed more than most. Hope you weren’t one of the suckers who bought a presale there.

#108 cultural elitist on 08.13.18 at 1:49 am

@ #81 Smoking Man

Ok, Smoking Man, I’ll bite. I should know better, but what the hell. It’s late, and I can’t sleep.

First, you are correct in claiming that, economically speaking, fascism is a form of state-directed economic control. As your video pointed out, Fascist philosophy holds that there is no distinction between the public and private good. What’s good for state is by definition good for me, so I must support the state. Call it leftist economics, if you like.

However, Fascism (as practiced by Mussolini, to take the archetypal example), also has historically gone together with a kind of state-worship and a personality cult for the leader. This is necessary because people understand that their own interests do not actually align with the interests of “the state” in all circumstances.

So the goal of fascist propaganda is to convince you to follow orders. They wave flags, hold rallies, and get you to identify with the greatness of your nation, or the greatness of a great man. If that doesn’t work, they have other, less friendly means. All for the greater good of course. You understand.

In between rallies extolling the greatness of the nation and himslef, Mussolini terrorized his political opponents, dismantled democratic institutions and eventually made himself dictator. Both Stalin and Hitler followed similar paths.

When people call someone in the current political arena a fascist, they are usually aren’t talking about the merging of state and corporate power, although that may be part of it. What that are more worried about, I suspect, is the brainless flag-waving, the ethno-nationalism, the attempt to discredit and silence any and all critical thinking or opposition, and the movement towards dictatorship.

Speaking of educating yourself, try this:

https://www.amazon.ca/Origins-Totalitarianism-Hannah-Arendt/dp/0156701537/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1534139028&sr=8-1&keywords=the+origins+of+totalitarianism

I’ll make you a deal: I’ll take up serious drinking if you’ll take up serious reading. :-)

#109 Oft deleted much maligned stock.picker on 08.13.18 at 2:16 am

As I said a few weeks ago China’s internals are collapsing and unrest is building.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-08-12/social-unrest-breaks-out-china-after-panic-bank-run-peer-2-peer-lenders

Interestingly as discussed investors are bailing and “managers are going missing”…..meaning fleeing to places like Canada with more filthy lucre. Interesting collision afoot as previous investors bail and new ones want to launder.

Trump has got his testicle shears out…..Chop chop. It doesn’t look good for Canada in any way. Crooks coming in…..crooks in office. Bad for Canada.

Can Trudeau keep hiring his potential votes at the rate of 54000 a month?

#110 Howard on 08.13.18 at 3:29 am

#60 -=jwk=- on 08.12.18 at 7:54 pm
Same here, but my Dad had a little more patience. I was 18.

You can’t do that now though as today’s special snowflakes will call 5-0 or the local Children’s Aid and you’re going to jail for abuse.

IMO more of these adult children need tough love.

This has been addressed ad-nauseum. Over and over. You got kicked out, joined a union and on your single salary bought a house , a car, and raised two kids. Good for you. That isn’t possible today. Anywhere. “Tough love” isn’t going to realign house prices with inflation, or get high school jobs back to the salaries you enjoyed. Or make it as easy to find a permanent job as you enjoyed.
Or lower tuition to the amount you enjoyed (as the case may be). etc, etc.

————————————————————-

It’s like talking to a brick wall. I’m surprised he didn’t bring up the ol’ interest rate canard, because apparently 18% mortgage rates (worst case scenario, for all of what, 15 minutes in 1982?) on a house costing 2.5x yearly income in an era of mostly stable employment is even remotely comparable to low mortgage rates on a house costing 11x yearly income in an era of precarious employment (the gig economy that Garth referred to).

#111 NoName on 08.13.18 at 5:51 am

#89 Steven Rowlandson on 08.12.18 at 9:58 pm
Well Ladies and Gents I think we are living in the human version of John Calhoun’s Mouse utopia experiment.

TL;DR – What Was the Mouse Utopia?
https://youtu.be/HfNKFvHtA3g
Death Squared
https://youtu.be/qDUUpMt1ruw

—-

Hej Stevo check this comment out from 2016

https://www.greaterfool.ca/2016/09/15/merciless/#comment-472766

#112 Gravy Train on 08.13.18 at 6:52 am

#81 Smoking Man on 08.12.18 at 8:58 pm
“I assumed you were intelagent [sic].”

Did you mean to write the word intelligent? Get your wife to help you with four-syllable words, too! Don’t you have a spell-checker? Or are you trying to appear stupid and ignorant? Is it your shtick?

On a serious note, democratic socialism is not totalitarianism. Go take a first-year political-science course.

Oh—and you claim to be a capitalist. Do you even own capital stock, ETFs, or units in a stock mutual fund? Do you own a business or company? If you answered no to both questions, you’re not a capitalist! :)

#113 Gravy Train on 08.13.18 at 7:28 am

#46 Leo Trollstoy on 08.12.18 at 6:41 pm
“Hitler was rejected by the far right.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/30/hitler-joined-nazis-only-after-another-far-right-group-shunned-him

“Good job liberals!”

You didn’t either read or understand the article you posted. Here’s a brief excerpt:

“Thomas Weber, a professor of history at the University of Aberdeen, unearthed a previously unpublished document that reveals that in 1919 the newly formed German Socialist party shunned Hitler [italics added], telling him that it did not want him in the party or writing for its paper.

“Weber said that history would have taken a different path if his membership had been accepted. Although also far-right [italics added], the German Socialist party was at the time bigger and more successful than the Nazi party. Hitler might have settled for a more minor role and would therefore ‘have been unlikely to ever come to power,’ Weber added.”

So do you now understand that both parties were far-right? Maybe you did all along, and you’re just a troll. :)

#114 Karl on 08.13.18 at 7:37 am

Not many in my close circle of boomer friends have downsized within the last 5 years. Of 10 boomer households (ages 60-68), only 1 downsized and that was due to divorce. 3 actually upsized and 2 bought cottages in addition to their main residence!

Wait. – Garth

I think you’ll be waiting a long time. 80% of boomers are renovating, not selling.

See: https://business.financialpost.com/real-estate/most-boomers-plan-to-stay-put-renovate-rather-than-move-in-next-5-years-study

Off by 3-4 years on your prediction you say? I think you’ll be forced to revise that.

The survey was done by a company pushing reverse mortgages. The bias is obvious. In any event, what people want (to stay in their homes) and what they can afford (a fifth have zero money to live on in retirement) are wildly divergent. Realtors like you can wish all you want. – Garth

#115 Elcheapo on 08.13.18 at 7:53 am

Dear lord the boomers are whining about the millenials today. For the love of Pete, THEY ARE YOUR KIDS! YOU RAISED THEM!

#116 Tater on 08.13.18 at 8:05 am

#22 conan on 08.12.18 at 4:11 pm
Hitler was a socialist. – smoking man

OMFG!
The only people who spin that line are alt right looney tunes.
—————————————————————
Or proud boy wankers like SM

#117 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.13.18 at 8:36 am

@#110 Howard
“….because apparently 18% mortgage rates (worst case scenario, for all of what, 15 minutes in 1982?) on a house costing 2.5x yearly income in an era of mostly stable employment…”
+++++

My My
A little fast and loose with the “facts” arent we?

I seem to recall most mortgages last 5 years not 15 minutes.
I also seem to recall (when living through that decade not just reading about it) the high interest rates also included ALL loans.
A friend of mine bought a brand new Toyota 4×4 in 1982 at 24% interest…..
As for “an era of mostly “stable” employment……News to me.
I was unemployed or employed part time for over 2 years in the early 1980’s.
NOTHING was happening. No one was hiring. there was NOTHING going on. The small construction boom for Expo86 saved Vancouver form being totally decimated like Toronto.
I finally started a small company and went out looking for work (hence the 2 year gap in my CPP payments for the early 80’s).
Nothing else to find.

Careful what you mock Howie.
If we get hammered with an 80’s type recession.
It wont just be Millenials living in basement apartments………

#118 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.13.18 at 8:48 am

@#101 majik
“Love how the myopic arrogant Brits completely overlooked the issue of the Irish border. It was a topic that didn’t come up once in either sides campaign. Hilarious now watching Dublin dictate terms to London.”
+++++

Yep.
May’s minority govt could fall at any time if the seats in Northern Ireland vote against her.
And no one seems to be discussing the mandatory border which would have to be installed between EU Eire and Brexit Northern Ireland.
A real curve ball game changer.

Oh and please note.
jane24 isnt a brit, she’s an expat Canuck that pretends to be a brit spending half her time in an Italian villa…I’m sure the Brexit she voted for will be an unpleasant surprise in the long run…..Not to worry mate. Have another pint on me!
Although she does have the arrogant part down pat.

Not to worry majik.
Brexit will reduce the economy to rubble via the new economy slowing Customs, new rules for everything and everyone entering and leaving, financial companies pulling out (to lower tax Eire? Paris, Berlin?), EU sanctions, less Polish plumbers to unplug toilets, and more anglo welfare recipients in the cities pushing prams.
Rule Britannia

#119 NoName on 08.13.18 at 8:49 am

I was listening to this guy on my way home this morning, he is either knows what he is talking about, or he is hardcore closet communist. Iam thinking 1st is more likely.

https://youtu.be/XepCi0I_g6I

#120 Remembrancer on 08.13.18 at 8:53 am

#85 Vampire studies on 08.12.18 at 9:17 pm

Agreeing, asbestos is not a chemical, try on for size:

1) Asbestos is a mineral, it is extracted, mined etc… (which works for your water example as well – pun intended)

2) Asbestos the mineral is (was) used in the manufacture process of various products – e.g. fire retardant electrical insulation or my personal favorite, in the past, cigarette filters…

#121 Rembrancer on 08.13.18 at 9:28 am

#90 acdel on 08.12.18 at 10:09 pm
#93 Millennial Realist on 08.12.18 at 10:13 pm

“Generation X”, (roughly born from 1961 to 1981 according to Wiki) the group considered sort of invisible but hugely different from the Boomers in all meaningful ways.

I think a lot of them have finally jumped into the housing market fairly recently, so it will be interesting to see how this group impacts or possibly stalls the expected downturn.
————————–

MR – I’d say pull those dates in 3-4 years to start and maybe 2-3 years to end – Wikipedia moves them from time-to-time. Not sure what you are basing the housing comment on, I’d expect most of the MTV generation are already where they are going to be and not in a position to be major movers in a new housing boom. Any just recently in the housing market are likely the result of split ups etc…

ACDEL – yep,Gen X has been getting nuggies from Boomers from our start, first as older siblings then as the generation that won’t move on, clinging to power, position and their houses figuratively and literally…

#122 Bytor the Snow Dog on 08.13.18 at 9:30 am

I previously posted:

Same here, but my Dad had a little more patience. I was 18

You can’t do that now though as today’s special snowflakes will call 5-0 or the local Children’s Aid and you’re going to jail for abuse.

IMO more of these adult children need tough love.

Then, #60 -=jwk=- on 08.12.18 at 7:54 pm whines:

“This has been addressed ad-nauseum. Over and over. You got kicked out, joined a union and on your single salary bought a house , a car, and raised two kids. Good for you. That isn’t possible today. Anywhere. “Tough love” isn’t going to realign house prices with inflation, or get high school jobs back to the salaries you enjoyed. Or make it as easy to find a permanent job as you enjoyed.
Or lower tuition to the amount you enjoyed (as the case may be). etc, etc.”
————————————————————-
Wrong, wrong, and wrong. Worked two jobs, got roommates. Went back to school for a trade. Meet girl that eventually becomes wife, dump roommates, move in with her. I still work 2 jobs, she works 1, barely squeezing by. Get “union job” at 26. Can finally work 1 job. Have first kid at 28, have second kid at 32, finally buy first house at same age.

I’m tired of this nonsense that Boomers had it easy. Stop whining and get out there.

#123 Smoking Man on 08.13.18 at 9:52 am

Gravy Train on 08.13.18 at 6:52 am
#81 Smoking Man on 08.12.18 at 8:58 pm
“I assumed you were intelagent [sic].”

Did you mean to write the word intelligent? Get your wife to help you with four-syllable words, too! Don’t you have a spell-checker? Or are you trying to appear stupid and ignorant? Is it your shtick?

On a serious note, democratic socialism is not totalitarianism. Go take a first-year political-science course.

Oh—and you claim to be a capitalist. Do you even own capital stock, ETFs, or units in a stock mutual fund? Do you own a business or company? If you answered no to both questions, you’re not a capitalist! :)
……

Even though your grammar a spelling skills are superior doesn’t change the fact that you are wrong 100% all the time. Blinded by savage ideology and manufactured talking points. You lose every time. Sadly you don’t see it. You suffer from confirmation bias, all it takes for you to get excited is s few minions bashing the great smoking man..

Libs are finished, they have drifted into a snake-filled swamp of insanity, the normals will punt them into the history books at mid terms here in the USA and then Justin next year.

Democratic Socialism…hahaha. No its still Communism , no matter how much lipstick is painted on the pig.

#124 Steven Rowlandson on 08.13.18 at 9:52 am

RE: NoName

You must have seen the videos on the same experiment recently or read about it in the Readers Digest Encyclopedia back in the late 1960’s like I did. With humans the walls are financial and legal but the basics are the same with time and species being the variables..

#125 dharma bum on 08.13.18 at 9:59 am

In 1995 I wrote a book forecasting that by 2015 the stock market would be at record levels and housing would be in decline. – Garth
——————————————————————–

I read that book back then!

Thank goodness.

(Garth looks very handsome on the cover. Hasn’t changed a bit!)

https://www.amazon.ca/2015-After-Boom-Revised-Retirement/dp/155013826X/ref=pd_sim_14_2?_encoding=UTF8&pd_rd_i=155013826X&pd_rd_r=a9089bd8-9f00-11e8-bbda-63260424ec2e&pd_rd_w=mLXSK&pd_rd_wg=RJbcq&pf_rd_i=desktop-dp-sims&pf_rd_m=A3DWYIK6Y9EEQB&pf_rd_p=ef8f8eb7-735f-4375-bdd3-c49ff7e7a853&pf_rd_r=QQ0BK7ZS1Q40RRKS491D&pf_rd_s=desktop-dp-sims&pf_rd_t=40701&psc=1&refRID=QQ0BK7ZS1Q40RRKS491D

#126 Steven Rowlandsone on 08.13.18 at 10:27 am

DELETED. The Nazi discussion is over. – Garth

#127 Ray on 08.13.18 at 10:43 am

#103 The Real Mark
RE the fall of the volme of XIU.T
————–
Look at XIU.T with weekly sticks over the past 8 years. A trend line connecting the bottoms, and a parallel connecting the tops suggests the Annual Growth of the channels is only about 3%. The price is currently in the top of the channels suggesting it may return to the mean and will fall, (perhaps to the $19.50 area by 2019). Maybe this is what other investors are seeing and are deciding there are better ETF’s out there.

#128 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 08.13.18 at 10:43 am

Another apocalyptic morning in Kelowna. Temperature is 14*outside my place midtown. Sky is darkly overcast, the sun can’t get thru to warm the earth. Extreme air quality warning, 10+ on a scale of 10. Another housebound Ventolin day for me and many others. This a typical summer now in the Brokanagan. Something the realtors and glossy magazines don’t tell you.

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca/forecasts/air-quality/british-columbia/kelowna

#129 Guy on 08.13.18 at 10:49 am

Garth that was a bit powerful for my Monday morning. Woah man Canada could really change.

#130 Ubul on 08.13.18 at 11:05 am

DELETED. The Nazi discussion is over. – Garth

It would be good, but as the Russian interference is unlikely to stick, the Nazi card is next, as heard loud and clear on CBC this morning.

http://www.cbc.ca/radio/thecurrent/charlottesville-resistance-knocked-the-alt-right-back-on-its-heels-says-prof-1.4782952

#131 Oft deleted much maligned stock.picker on 08.13.18 at 11:06 am

DELETED

#132 BoomerKid on 08.13.18 at 11:26 am

For all those comments about how the boomers just “don’t want to downsize as they get older and therefore they won’t sell”. Well, if they wait to do it when a health crisis hits instead of doing it in a systematic, thoughtful way prior to that, then they will be selling in a rush likely at a much lower price. Even though people statistically don’t die until their 80s, many people suffer some sort of disability well before then (eg. 60s or 70s)… like a stroke, cancer, or a broken hip.

I work in health care and I see how quickly a health crisis can change a person’s life and it’s not pretty. It works much better to foresee potential problems and make your living situation accessible so that a health crisis doesn’t cripple your quality of life (ie. Not a house where you need to walk up steps just to get inside, another flight of stairs and another set of stairs to get to your bathroom/bedroom, and where you need a car just to get groceries or go to the doctor).

#133 Citizen on 08.13.18 at 11:36 am

#93 – Millennial Realist

MR – yes.
Garth – Great Blog!
Garth can you please include us in your analysis.
I find Boomers and Mills seem to be the focus and Gen X is often not mentioned.

#134 Ezzy on 08.13.18 at 11:36 am

Re: Temagami

I received authorization from work so starting 2019 I get to work from home 4 out of 5 days of the week, which is awesome.

I get to move to Parry Sound, which I’ve always wanted to do, and the leave the smelly GTA (that I’ve lived in for 38 years) far behind me.

#135 Headhunter on 08.13.18 at 11:37 am

Wrong, wrong, and wrong. Worked two jobs, got roommates. Went back to school for a trade. Meet girl that eventually becomes wife, dump roommates, move in with her. I still work 2 jobs, she works 1, barely squeezing by. Get “union job” at 26. Can finally work 1 job. Have first kid at 28, have second kid at 32, finally buy first house at same age.

———————————————————-
how did it come to this? We are a 1st world country, technologically advanced! Two jobs slaving away hours of your youth that you will never be able to re-claim. My respect for providing for your family, but what a cost.

#136 Ezzy on 08.13.18 at 11:51 am

#31 The real Kip

Cool story and I’m sure it served you well, in 1974. While such things may have worked out for the best in 1974 it’s not 1974 anymore, and hasn’t been for 44 years. Well-paying work isn’t as easy to come by (yes, that’s true for the trades, too), and the cost of living (only decently mind you) is far higher than what it was more than 4 decades ago. Annually I make a good bit more money than my parents’ first town home cost them in 1977, yet I couldn’t afford a condo without destroying my opportunity to invest/save money for my own future. And I’m not referring to a posh condo, or one even close to downtown; just a regular, middling condo. I do not live a lavish lifestyle, by any means. For example, my car was purchased used and it was 5 years old when I bought it, and my primary concern is having enough money to actually retire at some point in my life. Now, please imagine a 15 year old living in the GTA being booted out in said fashion, how far do you think they’d get? I always appreciate the history of a person, but when 4 decades separates said history from current events it’s just not relevant anymore.

#137 Oft deleted much maligned stock.picker on 08.13.18 at 12:29 pm

DELETED

#138 Lee on 08.13.18 at 12:48 pm

#114 Karl,

I think it is safe to say the increase in longevity has stalled, and at least among boomers, men especially, it is reversing. Men die first, and women are more likely to downsize or move in with kids. Notwithstanding the large number of immigrants coming to Canada, they typically have larger households and if single men, just group together in a rental. So they won’t increase demand for real estate much if at all. Young people will never be able to afford SFHs at these prices in Toronto. Do you have any idea what it costs to carry a $1.5 M house with even a mortgage of just a couple of hundred thousand? Heating/AC costs on a typical 3,000 sft house run about $1,000 per month. Such a house would carry for no less than $4,000 a month inclusive of cable, cleaning, landscaping, etc.

Prices over the long haul will stay right where they are, probably for 15-20 years.

#139 DM in C on 08.13.18 at 12:56 pm

My parents are 70 and 67. Bought their first house in 1980 for $25k.

Sold it and bought another closer to the city about 15 years ago. STILL HAVE $149k mortgage.

Dad had a heart attack and two strokes and just left mom after 50 years to be with his HS GF because he ‘deserves to be happy’

The boomers in my acquaintance are selfish, crappy with money and narcissistic.

#140 Millennial Realist on 08.13.18 at 1:23 pm

#121 Rembrancer

Your point is true about the changing years/definitions of what made “Gen X”. While that term had been around for a while, it was really launched as a concept by the writing of Douglas Coupland around 1990, whose book popularized the term. he was writing of his own group’s experience and he was born in 1961, so my folks and others their age have said that really does mark the start of that ‘generation’ for them, give or a take a year or two.

They tell me of a very different experience than Boomers. Boomers entered the job market when post-war workers were retiring and upward mobility was a given, while house prices were barely 2 years salary, tops, even in parts of Toronto, and that was one salary, not two, per household. (As my dad says, if a Boomer passed the “pulse check” in 1975, he was guaranteed “management material”) Gen Xers entered the workforce during the slump of the 1980s following one real estate boom, with super high interest rates.

Most Gen Xers have been waiting for their full working lives for Boomers to clear out and open up positions, only to see that hope of more positions erode due to technological changes and the fact that Boomers are hanging on so long to pay their badly managed debts. More Gen Xers have had to have much smaller families as well.

Millennials will definitely clean up this mess, but I remain intrigued by what the final parting shots will be of the Gen X group as they try to seize their fleeting opportunity once the Boomers exit the stage. Could be very short and bitter for them, as we Millennials are truly ready to take over, and we’re generally much more computer-literate and trained for precarious work.

#141 S.Bby on 08.13.18 at 2:25 pm

The BC interior is burning up. There are air quality advisories for heavy smoke and ash from Prince George down to the US border and all through the Okanagan. Even Vancouver is smokey and the sky is an overcast solid grey. Every summer now for at least the last 5 years it has been this way. The people who bailed from Vancouver and moved into the interior are probably wondering what they got themselves into.

#142 jess on 08.13.18 at 2:58 pm

next russ will think i’m part of the deep state :)

TRUE: A Russian asbestos producer shared a photograph of their product to social media with a seal of Donald Trump’s face and the text “Approved by Donald Trump”.

Trump once opined, in his 1997 book The Art of the Comeback, that efforts to reduce and regulate asbestos (a material he claimed was “100% safe” once applied) in building construction were part of a mob-led conspiracy:

I believe that the movement against asbestos was led by the mob, because it was often mob-related companies that would do the asbestos removal. Great pressure was put on politicians, and as usual, the politicians relented.

=============================
A chemical compound is a chemical substance composed of many identical molecules (or molecular entities) composed of atoms from more than one element held together by chemical bonds.

take this composition
Mg3(Si2O5)(OH)4 – Chrysotile;
Chrysotile has been recommended for inclusion in the Rotterdam Convention on Prior Informed Consent,[18] an international treaty that restricts the global trade in hazardous materials. If listed, exports of chrysotile would only be permitted to countries that explicitly consent to imports

UN numbers (United Nations numbers) are four-digit numbers that identify hazardous materials, and articles (such as explosives, Flammable Liquids to oxidizing solid or toxic liquids, etc.) in the framework of international transport.

What is a chemical UN number?
UN numbers or UN IDs are four-digit numbers that identify dangerous goods, hazardous substances and articles (such as explosives, flammable liquids, toxic substances, etc.) in the framework of international transport. They are assigned by the United Nations Committee of Experts on the Transport of Dangerous Goods.
=================
Hazardous substances
friability

According to subsection 122.(1) of Part II of the Canada Labour Code, “hazardous substance includes a controlled product and a chemical, biological or physical agent that, by reason of a property that the agent possesses, is hazardous to the safety or health of a person exposed to it”.
Chemical, biological and physical agents

In industrial hygiene:

a chemical agent is a mist, a vapour, a gas, fumes or dusts of a chemical compound or a mixture of chemical compounds that present a hazard to the health of any person exposed to it.Hazardous chemical substances are found in most workplaces and may include, amongst others, cleaning and disinfectant agents, paints, pesticides and fuels.

Hazardous chemical substances refers to any toxic, harmful, corrosive, irritant of asphyxiant substance or, a mixture of substances, including dusts, fumes, gases, mists and vapours, that may produce adverse health effects in individuals when exposed to sufficient quantities.

Hazardous chemical substances can enter the human body through inhalation, ingestion or absorption through the skin or mucous membranes.
—————————————-
A Russian manufacturer of the hazardous chemical substance
noun:
a person or business concern that manufactures goods or owns a factory

man·u·fac·tur·er
ˌmanyəˈfak(t)SHərər/
noun
noun: manufacturer; plural noun: manufacturers

a person or company that makes goods for sale.
“the manufacturers supply the goods to the distribution center”

——————————–

Jess had it wrong, and so do you. Asbestos is NOT a “manufactured chemical substance”.

#143 Barb on 08.13.18 at 3:02 pm

#29 young & foolish on 08.12.18 at 5:24 pm

“Well, I thought I’d help them out in that regard and let CRA know on their behalf.” — Stone

That’s it folks, the Stasi mentality (mass surveillance enhanced by ratting on your neighbours) coming for us, where we turn on each other while the elites leave us in the dust.

——————————————————–
My thoughts exactly when I read Stone’s post!
Hitler loved Stone and his ilk.

The CRA will call it Kristallnacht II.

#144 Shortymac on 08.13.18 at 3:16 pm

Hooooooo boy. These comments.

– I wonder how many of the 44% fall into the following categories: a) child is disabled b) child has moved in to take care of parent c) Just went through divorce/other hardship and this is a temporary situation

– FYI, losers exist in every generation.

– The answer to WW2 Germany was socialist or capitalistic is: whatever kept AH in power. He nationalized some industries and privatized others. I could give plenty of examples to argue either side.

Garth, what is your take on wage stagnation that has gripped Canada for the past few decades and how to fix it?

It seems like businesses would rather die off rather than raise wages. Why?

#145 Stan Brooks on 08.13.18 at 3:19 pm

The real pimps/house pumpers:

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/montreal-apos-hot-real-estate-140004629.html

Canadian press telling you about foreign buyers apparently driving up house prices in Montreal. The interesting question is where were these foreign buyers before. I guess they start to be interested in a specific housing market exactly when CMHC needs to place some more ultra sub prime mortgages in order to continue their subsidies of the banks.

scum of the worse type ever imagined.

#146 Stan Brooks on 08.13.18 at 3:28 pm

Some more misinformation from the financial parasites sponsored by CMHC:

https://ca.yahoo.com/finance/news/canada-apos-sudden-population-apos-192000983.html

#147 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 08.13.18 at 3:34 pm

#141 S.Bby on 08.13.18 at 2:25 pm
The BC interior is burning up. There are air quality advisories for heavy smoke and ash from Prince George down to the US border and all through the Okanagan. Even Vancouver is smokey and the sky is an overcast solid grey. Every summer now for at least the last 5 years it has been this way. The people who bailed from Vancouver and moved into the interior are probably wondering what they got themselves into.
………………………………………

A number of flights due to arrive at Kelowna International Airport are delayed this evening, and a Castanet source on board one of the delayed flights says it’s due to smoke.

The passenger was en route from Toronto to Kelowna aboard a WestJet flight this evening when her flight was suddenly turned around right before landing.

The pilot allegedly said the smoke was to blame, and so the flight was turned to Vancouver instead, to refuel and try again later.

The flight is currently listed as delayed on YLW’s website, and “diverted to YVR (Vancouver)” on WestJet’s.

Several other flights, both from Air Canada and WestJet, are also currently listed as delayed on YLW’s arrivals page.

#148 James on 08.13.18 at 3:43 pm

#123 Smoking Man on 08.13.18 at 9:52 am

Gravy Train on 08.13.18 at 6:52 am
#81 Smoking Man on 08.12.18 at 8:58 pm
“I assumed you were intelagent [sic].”

Did you mean to write the word intelligent? Get your wife to help you with four-syllable words, too! Don’t you have a spell-checker? Or are you trying to appear stupid and ignorant? Is it your shtick?

On a serious note, democratic socialism is not totalitarianism. Go take a first-year political-science course.

Oh—and you claim to be a capitalist. Do you even own capital stock, ETFs, or units in a stock mutual fund? Do you own a business or company? If you answered no to both questions, you’re not a capitalist! :)
……

Even though your grammar a spelling skills are superior doesn’t change the fact that you are wrong 100% all the time. Blinded by savage ideology and manufactured talking points. You lose every time. Sadly you don’t see it. You suffer from confirmation bias, all it takes for you to get excited is s few minions bashing the great smoking man..
Libs are finished, they have drifted into a snake-filled swamp of insanity, the normals will punt them into the history books at mid terms here in the USA and then Justin next year.
Democratic Socialism…hahaha. No its still Communism , no matter how much lipstick is painted on the pig
_______________________________________
Gravy Trains questions were as follows…..
#1 Do you even own capital stock, ETFs, or units in a stock mutual fund?
#2 Do you own a business or company?
Now answer the question you crazy old coot. Stop pulling an alt right left hook with the Trumpster style of dodging the question. READ Smoking Man READ! Put on your reading glasses, that if you can find them in your drunken stupor.

#149 Wrk.dover on 08.13.18 at 3:49 pm

Thirty eight years ago I dropped out to play Hippy and built in this remote, depressed rural area where most of the people were retired, and I have witnessed the succession over the years. It is not as ugly as it sounds. There are only a few people my age that have lived here longer than I, most of the old timers are long gone. Many boomers have passed away too.

When I arrived, there was an old couple taking care of her ancient mother right where she had been born in the house across the field, which has now sat empty for almost twenty years as they have all passed on.

The house in front of that had a WWI vet whom had retired into that house from the inland back country in ’65. He and his wife, and the couple that had moved in to care for them are long gone too.

Up the road a retired Boston factory worker renovated and retired in her family homestead in ’73 which her father had previously renovated in 1918. We used to take her to the hospital in the middle of the night about once a year, but she made it to 91. Her house remains empty.

All of these people lived on OAS, too old to have contributed to CPP. The Boston lady had US So Security, and a chump pension. She constantly upgraded her house with it, it was/is pretty nice.

One OAS income here will cover taxes, power and heat.

My mother in law born in 1910, supplemented her OAS with the interest she collected from a $17,000 GIC all through her seventies and eighties, while living in the house she had raised ten children in.

The ratio of old singles was determined to be 64 women for one man in a nearby village back in the eighties.

The bachelor across from us regularly abandoned his house and shacked up with some one or other every winter, until he died. Another one nearby does the same periodically. He is now eighty.

At one point, one year, all eight houses you can see from mine when the leaves are gone, were vacant.

Retired people around here are pretty happy to be in their home 24/7, aware of how things are in the big T.O., and in govt. “homes” too.

The sun comes up in the morning, and you can read the sky fifty miles away from any window. The road gets plowed in the winter, shopping for essentials can be done monthly or even more often. The air is clean, the water is too, and loneliness is not a thing, it is a friend.

Real Estate has not much value, because it is not much in demand. It always was tradition here to get someone who hadn’t materially succeeded real well in life to move in, and sign over the deed to them in exchange for companionship and care.

Many people from away have come to retire here over the years, immediately over extend on the house they think they need, always seeming to have money problems from the get go, and leave within a decade.

These are the folks that think a car has to be on the road daily.

Old age is not a time to need gratification. It is a time to stay alive and appreciate the day itself. All of them.

I’m ready for the change over to that mode and live in my guest house with a caretaker in my house, when I do get there. My city mother, at 96 not so much! She wants to consume, and fine dine with the best of them, so she does!

I suppose this tale has Garth pretty much manically depressed. I’m just pointing out that there is more than cat food in a GTA condo for Canadians that only need a few neighbours, rather than a city of strangers.

#150 Gravy Train on 08.13.18 at 4:09 pm

#142 jess on 08.13.18 at 2:58 pm
“next russ will think i’m part of the deep state :)”

Aren’t you ‘Q’? I sure needed your help yesterday! :)

#151 mike from mtl on 08.13.18 at 4:25 pm

#132 BoomerKid on 08.13.18 at 11:26 am
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Right, you’d think so but pride and selfishness get in the way.

That unfortunately did happen to a family member of mine quite recently. She got very bad quickly, almost no mobility, her husband basically became a live-in nurse, stairs and all.

Only after it go so bad and a hospital stay, she passed there a week in.

Very sad stuff but I’m sure not unusual.

#152 TheDood on 08.13.18 at 4:28 pm

#138 Lee on 08.13.18 at 12:48 pm

…Prices over the long haul will stay right where they are, probably for 15-20 years.

________________________

Not if they’re sitting on the market for months/years. Prices will revert to what the LOCALS can afford to pay.

#153 Gravy Train on 08.13.18 at 5:06 pm

#123 Smoking Man on 08.13.18 at 9:52 am
“Even though your grammar a[nd] spelling skills are superior, [it] doesn’t change the fact that you are wrong 100% all the time.” I’m wealthy, healthy and happy, so I must be doing something right! :)

“[You’re] [b]linded by savage ideology and manufactured talking points.” No, I just have abilities that you lack: critical-thinking skills, common sense, and a vocabulary. :)

#154 MiFi on 08.13.18 at 5:11 pm

What’s going down Tomorrow?

https://twitter.com/financecanada/status/1029071620873355264?s=21

#155 TheDood on 08.13.18 at 5:17 pm

#144 Shortymac on 08.13.18 at 3:16 pm

….It seems like businesses would rather die off rather than raise wages. Why?

____________________

Good question. Not sure what the answer is. Maybe they’re just cheap, stupid idiots.

I’ve had the good fortune to work in 3 different continents over the last 15 years. It’s been my experience that working in Canada generates a pretty low amount of disposable income. A combination of low wages, high taxes, and expensive everything I guess. This explains our current record household debt levels. If you want to get ahead while living a high quality life, you need to look beyond the Canadian border. Very few jobs/industries in this country pay well – Oil and Gas in Alberta was king, but we all know what happened there.

#156 EB on 08.13.18 at 5:20 pm

Hippies. 54. I still resent being lumped in with them. When they were at Woodstock I was entirely concerned with not missing cartoons that day.

#157 Ronaldo on 08.13.18 at 5:41 pm

#139 DM in C on 08.13.18 at 12:56 pm

The boomers in my acquaintance are selfish, crappy with money and narcissistic.
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Sounds like quite a crowd you hang out with. Maybe time for a change of acquaintances. Would do wonders for the attitude.

#158 Bytor the Snow Dog on 08.13.18 at 5:49 pm

Jess @ 143.

Shocking fact #1: Stuff that comes out of the ground has a molecular formula.

Shocking fact #2: Because something is classified as a “hazardous chemical substance” under some government’s Health and Safety Regs does not make it a “manufactured chemical substance”.

You and Gravy Train need to give up on your all men are wrong all the time mantra.

#159 Linda on 08.13.18 at 6:25 pm

‘TheDood’ – I don’t think Canadian disposable income is the issue. I think what people spend is the issue. People often purchase the ‘want’ rather than ‘the need’. Case in point: the humungous tricked out truck with the extended box, electronic everything, fancy chrome etc. You’d think the owners were using these for work purposes – landscaping/contracting etc. but no. They are driving them to the office cube farm in the big city. They don’t require the truck but – they wants it! My precious!

Ditto the house. Used to be a family of four (& often more) were raised in a 3 bedroom, 1 bath bungalow averaging about 1,200 square feet on an oversized lot. These days 1,200 square feet qualifies as a tiny home. In fact, anything under 1,500 square feet is considered small & cramped, so you see two people living in a 3 or 4 bedroom, 2 1/2 bath edifice of at least 1,600 square feet which is considered a ‘starter’ home. When & if children arrive, they promptly start looking for bigger digs. With plenty of fancy upgrades to boot.

So not a disposable income issue. Spending issue. Stop making excuses for those whose wants exceed their income.

#160 Gravy Train on 08.13.18 at 6:25 pm

#158 Bytor the Snow Dog on 08.13.18 at 5:49 pm
“You and Gravy Train need to give up on your all-men-are-wrong-all-the-time mantra.”

No, all men are not wrong, all the time. Just ‘idjits’ like you and Smokey. :)

#161 Headhunter on 08.13.18 at 7:16 pm

Daily fix @greaterfool are we in the “end times?” people are losing their shit here bout SmokingMan.. “we dont like in others what we dont like in ourselves” he is playin you guys like a champ and you just keep feeding the machine. Dopamine I guess.

read this post just now

Now, please imagine a 15 year old living in the GTA being booted out in said fashion, how far do you think they’d get? I always appreciate the history of a person, but when 4 decades separates said history from current events it’s just not relevant anymore.

Truer words have never been spoken about todays youth vs.. we “us”

#162 Russ on 08.13.18 at 7:21 pm

Hi jess,

Thanks to you and your agent’s efforts this weekend we helped push Doug to the 100 comment level.

BTW, the motorcycle ride was splendid.
Just the right temperature, ~25 C and tourist traffic was tolerable (to & from the little known byways).

I didn’t get the deep state until almost midnight though, summertime movie watching. Not concerned about work or bothered by anything really.

#163 Doug in London on 08.13.18 at 10:53 pm

@Anon in KL, post #17:
Yes, places in northeastern Ontario are rarely mentioned here, and seeing Temagami here is a first. You’re quite right, the north is a relatively cheap place to live. For many years I lived in Timmins, had a good paying job, and wisely accumulated wealth. No need for 60k pickups with truck nuts, my front drive cars travelled more back roads of the north, often with a canoe on the roof, than many of those trucks ever have.

#164 DM in C on 08.14.18 at 9:31 am

Ronaldo @ #157 Sounds like quite a crowd you hang out with. Maybe time for a change of acquaintances. Would do wonders for the attitude.

As I put in my post, they’re my parents and their crowd. I agree. Time to stop spending time with them. It would improve my mood immensely.