Unthinkable

If the economy’s so great, why did stocks go down?

That simple question’s a good one. On Friday Washington announced a 4% spurt in US economic growth in the latest quarter. Twice that of the previous period. So yuge, said the president, that it was “unthinkable.”

Yeah, it was good. Not as sexy as the 5% jump under Obama in 2015, nor a 7% eruption under Clinton (many things erupted under him), but strong. The number reflected a surge in consumer confidence and since household spending is over 70% of the economy, the GDP swelled. But despite that, the stock market lost over 70 points and the euphoria lasted just a few minutes.

Huh?

Two things help explain this, and pose a warning of what lies ahead for us all. First, orders for US exports, especially soybeans (whatever they are) surged in advance of the trade war that will make everything more expensive. So it was a one-shot thing. Second, this economic stat is just another nail in the coffin of cheap money which has helped to fuel stocks. There’s no doubt now two more interest rate increases are in store from the Fed, and our central bank will likely follow.

Connect the dots. US unemployment at 4% is considered full employment. The jobless rate is at an 18-year low. There are more job openings than applicants. The cost of living and wages are both rising. The Trump trade war promises to be bigly inflationary. Stock markets are sitting just a few points below all-time highs. The deficit in Washington is on track to hit $1 trillion, for the first time ever. All that borrowing puts upward pressure on the cost of money. And corporate profits are on a tear.

So the Fed, which has upped the cost of money seven times in the past 18 months, will do it again in September and December. Higher rates will eat into consumer spending power, reduce borrowing, increase corporate costs and snaggle economic activity. Stocks don’t like that.

The Bank of Canada has now bumped rates four times and there is another to come, for sure, this year. More in 2019. Our guys can’t afford to fall far behind the American central bank or the dollar will fade more than Jagmeet Singh. It’s probably safe to say mortgages will cost a full 1% more by next autumn, which would push the stress test rate to almost 6.5%. As reported here a day or two ago, this is exactly what all those mortgage brokers nightmare about. Already this year, they say, 100,000 buyers have been shut out of the market – a big reason sales are tanking.

Donald Trump is the inflation president. He wants growth, expansion, jobs and spending. The price of that will be higher debt and rates. To think otherwise is rash.

$      $      $

“Long time reader,” says Malcolm, sucking up, “and dedicated follower of the balanced-diversified lifestyle. Thanks for all you do!”

Of course, he has a problem. His mother. She’s 78 and recently went bananas.

“She came into an unexpected windfall and I’m trying to help her figure out how to handle the change to her circumstances, and just wondering if I could get a bit of direction to the best way of going about it.  She’s definitely not a very financially literate person, all her life she’s lived paycheque to paycheque.  Along the way, a combination of bad luck and bad choices, she eventually found herself retired at 70yrs old, single, and essentially penniless.

After a few very lean years of living off CPP & OAS, while living in a subsidized seniors residence, she got news that some family land in SE Sask inherited years ago had been targeted by an Oil & Gas company with news they were interested in drilling.  In one of life’s crazy twists, they ended up with a successful well and subsequently my mom started receiving royalty cheques for her mineral rights on the land.

For someone who had always lived hand to mouth to suddenly start receiving monthly cheques averaging about $10K per month, it was a life changer.  For the first few months she splurged and treated herself and family, paying off all her debts and moving to a new condo (as she no longer qualified for subsidized housing). Now reality is setting in and she realizes this money needs to be handled properly going forward.

What are your suggestions for someone in this situation?  I told her to make an appointment with an accountant for professional advice as there will be tax repercussions, obviously.  She has no interest in investing, doesn’t want to have money tied up in the market. She bought a GIC to cover half her taxes next year and aside from that just puts the remainder in her savings account.

I’m not sure what her next move should be, any advice would be greatly appreciated.”

Royalty money can end as fast as it appears. It’s unpredictable, non-guaranteed and entirely at the discretion of the issuer. Besides, wells dry up. Mom must understand this. She also can’t afford to blow the cash because the CRA needs to be fed. Royalty income is treated like regular earned wages – so mom now has a marginal tax rate of 36% and will owe at least $35,000 on the windfall being received over 12 months. This will also affect her CPP, plus there’s the OAS recovery tax (which clicks in at $75,000).

The woman may be nice, and your mom etc., but she obviously can’t be trusted with money. Time for you to man up, move in, craft a budget, go joint on her chequing account, cut off credit, make quarterly tax payments and protect her from herself. Do you have power of attorney? No? Then get it.

There comes a time child and parent must change places. She cared for you during the idiot years. Now rescue her.

114 comments ↓

#1 The Greater Cauliflower on 07.27.18 at 6:14 pm

Why would it affect her CPP?

Higher tax rate, obviously. – Garth

#2 Reximus on 07.27.18 at 6:17 pm

100,000 buyers have been shut out of the market – a big reason sales are tanking.

====

Buyers haven’t been shut out of the market, they’ve just bought less expensive properties than the ones they might have wanted, probably a good thing

Not what was reported. – Garth

#3 LP on 07.27.18 at 6:24 pm

Hi Garth

Two things…why would her windfall affect her CPP? Presumably she worked at something during her younger years and the income from that would dictate whatever sum she gets from the plan. An increase going forward surely doesn’t impinge on that payment.

And secondly, your advice to the son would seem to say that his mother in legally incompetent. If she gets her back up and tells him to MYOB, which is what I would do under the same circumstance, he’ll have to go to court to have himself appointed her guardian. Is that what you’re advocating?

CPP is taxable. Her marginal rate goes up, she keeps less. And I hope you think more of your children. – Garth

#4 Kelowna House Prices Reach Tipping Point as Area is Literally Burning Down on 07.27.18 at 6:26 pm

Welcome to the Smokanagan. Where you can choke on both smoke and obscene house prices.

All residents of the Wilden neighbourhood (where house is typically 900k) are on evacuation alert as a result of the Glenmore wildfire burning above Yates Road. The alert affects 933 properties.

Residents are being urged to not go outside or get into to much debt.

#5 R Vanzo on 07.27.18 at 6:29 pm

Trade war? Europe just blinked. Only Canada will be left out of the party, thanks to Justin. And it was not Bieber.

#6 TMAC on 07.27.18 at 6:29 pm

FIRST!

#7 Richmond Literally Burning Down as Well on 07.27.18 at 6:32 pm

Might just be a coincidence as house prices are rolling over in the debt danger zones of BC (Vancouver, Richmond, Lower Mainland, Victoria and Okanagan).

#8 Ex-Cowtown on 07.27.18 at 6:36 pm

“After a few very lean years of living off CPP & OAS, while living in a subsidized seniors residence, she got news that some family land in SE Sask inherited years ago had been targeted by an Oil & Gas company with news they were interested in drilling. In one of life’s crazy twists, they ended up with a successful well and subsequently my mom started receiving royalty cheques for her mineral rights on the land.

For someone who had always lived hand to mouth to suddenly start receiving monthly cheques averaging about $10K per month, it was a life changer. For the first few months she splurged and treated herself and family, paying off all her debts and moving to a new condo (as she no longer qualified for subsidized housing). Now reality is setting in and she realizes this money needs to be handled properly going forward.”
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Three words that strike fear into the heart of every oilman (or as T2 would prefer “Oil-people-kind-zers”)

DEE-PLEE-TION

$10K a month will likely turn into $6K in a year then $2K then zero.

Not a word that government retired pensioners are familiar with, but all of us who have to pay their way know very well.

My advice to Mama? invest it in solid dividend paying ETF’s and learn to live off the dividend.

Oil wells, like many other things, crap out slowly at first, then all at once.

#9 The Real Mark on 07.27.18 at 6:37 pm

Let’s see. The yield curve is just as flat as ever, and is maybe 2-3 hikes away from going into inversion which pretty much always guarantees a US recession. The US economy is highly dependent on ‘cheap’ money which may be disappearing as well. The tech sector is rolling over, a victim of over-investment and over-hype. The President’s strategy, although bombastic, isn’t coherent and doesn’t even appear to have a lot of support amongst other lawmakers.

Unemployment is still very high. Job ads are routinely exaggerated as 3rd party headhunting firms copy and paste trying to score their own commissions. A lot of ads aren’t even real, especially in the tech sector, but are just postings for immigration compliance purposes.

Wage pressures, accordingly are minimally existent. Minimum wage employers are not dreading the loss of employees. The US Treasury Bond market is not fearing, at all, Trump being an ‘inflation’ President.

Of course those ‘corporate profits’ are on a tear — a reduction to tax rates will do that. But when government runs deficits, taxes inevitably have to rise to balance the budget and repay such. So in the short term, that might be positive, but in the long term, neutral, or even negative at best.

Lots of other landmines as well. A housing bubble that some say has reflated to levels similar to that of the mid 2000s. Pension implosions. A medical system that continues to consume an ever increasing share of the economy’s output. A few big brand name, high market cap, no-earnings tech companies that are just waiting to implode. Meanwhile the US stock market is ‘priced to perfection’, as though nothing can or will go wrong.

#10 The Wet One on 07.27.18 at 6:41 pm

“The woman may be nice, and your mom etc., but she obviously can’t be trusted with money. Time for you to man up, move in, craft a budget, go joint on her chequing account, cut off credit, make quarterly tax payments and protect her from herself. Do you have power of attorney? No? Then get it.”

Whew.

Good luck with doing all that if the mom in question has all her faculties. You can’t just go in and do it. She has to agree. It’s still her money.

But otherwise, yeah, something like that.

#11 Kelowna Ave. Price Continues Down From June on 07.27.18 at 6:43 pm

An additional -0.42% or -109k down on average price (including some big ticket homes that are majorly price cutting causing the average list cut to be over negative 100k in price in just one month within the active listing pool) from June last month.

Average change down of -7.63% at just over 2.5 million cut in sales volume just on the price cutting.

GTFO.

#12 akashic record on 07.27.18 at 6:46 pm

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#13 Okanagan Best Bets - Have I got a Deal for You on 07.27.18 at 6:53 pm

Here we have a beautiful house that was originally listed at 1.85M in West Kelowna where they still have that water advisory issue going on 3 years or so. Use the Mexico rule here. Don’t drink the tap water. Supposedly E coli issues. You can find these signs at all the main street corners when on your wine tour.

Anyways, no money launderers showed up this year and the place seems to be sitting quite awhile.

So, now we have price cut $300,000 for the special offer of 1.55M or -16% change in price.

#14 Linda on 07.27.18 at 6:54 pm

I thought ‘the Donald’ was going to stack the Fed with his appointees as he doesn’t want any more interest rate hikes? Or has he reversed course on that plan?

#15 Greg on 07.27.18 at 6:58 pm

Out of curiosity dioes anyone know what software Garth uses to run this website. I am thinking of starting my own blog and like the simple elegance of this website? Thanks in advance

#16 BC Assessment on 07.27.18 at 6:58 pm

We are actively working to figure out how we can somehow increase valuations on all BC homes to keep up the gravy train of income tax collection by our beloved municipal partners.

2009 freeze over again to preserve valuation and property tax growth for this year?

As long as it is written on a letter that is stamped by the government and mailed out it must be real.

Stay tuned for this years magic trick to be revealed in 5-months time.

#17 akashic record on 07.27.18 at 7:00 pm

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#18 BlorgDorg on 07.27.18 at 7:03 pm

“Time for you to man up, move in, craft a budget, go joint on her chequing account, cut off credit, make quarterly tax payments and protect her from herself. Do you have power of attorney? No? Then get it.”

Or just stop returning her phone calls.

Most of my friends’ parents are in a similar situation: retired, no net worth, financially illiterate, ageing rapidly, unwilling to listen to reason, even if it’s from their kids.

You can do the “right” thing and try to help her, but like a drowning man, be careful not to get too close as you do, lest her poor decisions impact your finances as well.

I strongly recommend never having parents.

#19 We will miss you Doug on 07.27.18 at 7:05 pm

Great fight against the Okanagan spec tax and keeping high home prices out of reach of local working citizens who apparently don’t matter in the race to build for outside speculators with money from who knows where – hence the fight to rid the spec tax.

Selling out the millennial and protecting the boomer equity is fading with time as the demographic majority shifts.

Best of luck in your future endeavors.

#20 The Don wants higher rates on 07.27.18 at 7:11 pm

Quit watching CNN and start listening straight from the horses mouth.

He has stated time and time again that savers are being punished and that interest rates have been kept artificially low.

Recent talk about interest rates jacking the growth is just jibber jabber. Some nice commentary for stocks. The economy is going to boom, and so are interest rate hikes until mid 2019 when the economy snaps and goes into recession.

#21 Hababa on 07.27.18 at 7:11 pm

Canada doesn’t follow the fed. The US has raised interest 7. times and Canada has raised interest 4 times….that’s only 57% of the time.

#22 So glad I sold on 07.27.18 at 7:14 pm

Love the dog picture. Is that a beagle? I’m house and pet
sitting and they have a beagle- just makes my day. I agree with him helping his mom regarding finances, because I have a cousin that’s also not good with money
And she’s still working at 71 but now is collecting her MPP as well as CPP and OAP. Warned her about paying quarterly to CRA and that some of her OAP will be clawed back due to income approaching $100,000.
Unfortunately one and sometimes 2 of her grown kids
Look at her as their own ATM and she can’t say no.
She does rent a basement suite.

Her Mom will soon be in long term care so her house in Vancouver will need to be sold to help pay for that.
My cousin at the end of the day will probably have a sizable inheritance with her sister, but will need a good
Investor to help with growing that amount. Someone like you.

#23 Parksville Prankster on 07.27.18 at 7:16 pm

@15 – WordPress, with his own theme design. You can type the address of any site here and it’ll let you know if it’s WordPress or not.

https://www.isitwp.com/

#24 Hababa on 07.27.18 at 7:16 pm

Money supply is the greatest inflationary measure. Therefore fractional reserve banking by banks and 2008 to 2015 by OBama printing trillions!!! Trump no like dee inflation!

#25 AK on 07.27.18 at 7:16 pm

“First, orders for US exports, especially soybeans (whatever they are) surged in advance of the trade war that will make everything more expensive.”
=====================================
Soybeans are consumed. A new batch will need to be ordered next quarter.

#26 akashic record on 07.27.18 at 7:19 pm

The GF moral contentguard AI algo has an unusually eruptive day today :)

Maybe it’s the channeling of Bill’s spirit and ‘Blood Moon’, the longest total lunar eclipse of the century, all on the same day.

#27 In Progress on 07.27.18 at 7:22 pm

Hi Garth, just wondering if some money market funds are more secure than others if someone needed to park some funds until they can be invested or is there a better option? Thank you.

#28 The Real Mark on 07.27.18 at 7:23 pm

Also, obtaining power of attorney over a parent is tough when you are still living at home at 47 and receiving an allowance from mom. How do I know? Experience. Make sure you have your own ends in order first.

#29 Mattl on 07.27.18 at 7:23 pm

#4 Smokanagan

Just come out and say it, you are hoping for homes here to burn down, would show us suckers that own out this way. What a show of callousness. Homes here were cheap forever, you missed 10 years of cheap money and homes and are now giddy about a fire. Class act.

If you haven’t noticed fires and weather are a problem everywhere. Greece, Florida , Cali.

Hope you have your renters insurance up to date, wouldn’t want you to lose your N64 games and pet rocks in a disaster. I guess thats the upside to having nothing, nothing to lose.

#30 Mattl on 07.27.18 at 7:34 pm

Jesus what is with all the mouth breathers having a melt over centeal Okanagan prices. Sales are down, and prices will for sure fall, it residential is up almost 8 points yoy. Hardly a disaster for homeowners.

The doomers have really taken over here. Sad that people are cheering fires, you have to be one sad SOB to get excited about fires in the town you rent.

#31 Nonplused on 07.27.18 at 7:47 pm

Definitely want to watch the taxes on this one. If she hasn’t been paying them in advance using quarterly installments a bank account is probably the best place for that money. If she blows it she could end up in another type of “assisted living” center.

Also the royalties will decline as Ex-Cowtown pointed out. But you didn’t say how much land there was so who knows the oil company might be interested in drilling more wells if they haven’t already tapped the property out. In that area of the world it is most likely the oil company went after a shale deposit, which would mean exceptional production the first couple years dwindling to almost nothing after year 5. So this windfall could be very short lived. So it would be a very good idea for you to find out exactly what they are drilling there, what their plans are, the extent of the deposit, and make yourself an expert in the business.

All oil royalties on a single well eventually decline to zero, but if it is shale oil it will do so incredibly fast. You need to find out if they are planning other wells on the property or this could be a very short lived bonanza. Until you figure out what the future income stream is going to look like, she should probably be saving most of the money.

#32 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 07.27.18 at 7:47 pm

#4 Kelowna House Prices Reach Tipping Point as Area is Literally Burning Down on 07.27.18 at 6:26 pm
Welcome to the Smokanagan. Where you can choke on both smoke and obscene house prices.

All residents of the Wilden neighbourhood (where house is typically 900k) are on evacuation alert as a result of the Glenmore wildfire burning above Yates Road. The alert affects 933 properties.

Residents are being urged to not go outside or get into to much debt.
…………………………………….

Just another typical Okanagan summer…….yet more and more people keep coming here. We will be smoked in until the rains and snows come in October.And the building boom continues….Thirty minutes this morning to cross the bridge from Kelowna to Westbank. Bumper to bumper.

#33 Ace Goodheart on 07.27.18 at 7:50 pm

Trumps about to brutalize the US auto industry.

If you own auto stocks you might want to sell them….

#34 Reynolds531 on 07.27.18 at 8:00 pm

#27 progress

Money market securities are safe until they aren’t. ABCP was a perfect example. But you can usually find a high interest account or two with similar rates.

There is nothing unsafe about money market funds holding short-term government securities. – Garth

#35 The Real Mark on 07.27.18 at 8:01 pm

#28, stop the personation please. Very childish and dishonest, a sign of profound mental illness.

“Canada doesn’t follow the fed. The US has raised interest 7. times and Canada has raised interest 4 times….that’s only 57% of the time.”

True. And the argument that the CAD$ would crater if CAD$ interest rates don’t match USD$ rates in reasonably close proximity is pretty weak as well. Investors aren’t just idiots that blindly chase the highest nominal rates with their cash. The ability to run low rate policy implies currency stability. Much better to get 3% in a currency that has 2% inflation, for example, than to get 10% in a currency that has 10% inflation. On an after-tax basis, its pretty much no-contest historically, that savers do a lot better when rates are low, than when rates are high, in terms of real after-tax returns.

Also higher rates, particularly in the US, may very well imply currency weakening in the long term as their public and private sectors are extremely heavily indebted and mathematically more USD$ would have to be conjured into existence to facilitate debt service at higher interest rates without inducing widespread defaults.

#36 Richard on 07.27.18 at 8:04 pm

The Real Mark #9 says it all and understands the situation.

#37 Long-Time Lurker on 07.27.18 at 8:11 pm

Flop, you still here? I’m sure more people read your Pink Posts than disparage them. (Say they suck.)

#38 Tony on 07.27.18 at 8:11 pm

Re: #30 Mattl on 07.27.18 at 7:34 pm

It’s amazing how fires just happen to occur when real estate prices peak and turn downward the same as we saw in Fort McMurray when oil tanked and property prices there did the same thing. Insurance companies should beware of peaking real estate prices.

#39 Mattl on 07.27.18 at 8:12 pm

Hey Four Fingers Watson – you clearly hate Kelowna, you are always posting how much it sucks out here. As a renter you can pick up and move, if you own, cash your cheque and run.

You’ve obviously made it, this place isn’t for you. You’ve outgrown us.Why not just move? Leave us suckers behind.

If you decide to stay maybe keep an eye on the news, Centre of Gravity is this weekend and there are tons of people in town. Terrible time to cross the bridge mid day, but great weekend for the city. City will be rocking.

#40 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 07.27.18 at 8:21 pm

#39 Mattl on 07.27.18 at 8:12 pm
Hey Four Fingers Watson – you clearly hate Kelowna, you are always posting how much it sucks out here. As a renter you can pick up and move, if you own, cash your cheque and run.

You’ve obviously made it, this place isn’t for you. You’ve outgrown us.Why not just move? Leave us suckers behind.

If you decide to stay maybe keep an eye on the news, Centre of Gravity is this weekend and there are tons of people in town. Terrible time to cross the bridge mid day, but great weekend for the city. City will be rocking.
…………………………….

Sounds like fun, i might check it out…..i hope they don’t choke on the smoke. We need all the tourist dollars we can get.

#41 Mattl on 07.27.18 at 8:22 pm

#38 Tony

Yes Tony, the correlation between fires and property values is fascinating. Homes have been rising and there are a few small fires, mostly caused by lightning, burning. Sorry whats the connection again? People are causing lightning due to rising house prices? Is that you theory Einstien?

#42 dakkie on 07.27.18 at 8:23 pm

Spending on Housing Dropped 12% in Canada in June

http://www.investmentwatchblog.com/spending-on-housing-dropped-12-in-canada-in-june/

#43 NoName on 07.27.18 at 8:49 pm

watch !!! (less than a minute)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FBz0kqUuy1Q

#44 EP on 07.27.18 at 8:53 pm

These stock moves, could it be month-end re-balancing and unloading the tech fluff for safer and down-to-earth companies/stocks?

S&P and DOW seem to both be above all moving averages in both daily and weekly charts

#45 Flat Earth Society on 07.27.18 at 8:53 pm

Now might be a good time to remind blog dogs of a few fundamental characteristics of the nature of “fossil fuels”.

First, they didn’t come from fossils, for the most part. The name is a misnomer.

Oil and natural gas came from a one time event that occurred 500-350 million years ago. At that time the atmosphere was rich in CO2 and life was primitive. But that life there was was extremely good at converting the CO2 and sunlight into itself, which was probably some sort of plankton or algae. When those little single celled critters died they sank to the bottom of the ocean as there wasn’t a lot around yet to eat them. Their bodies (which were just cells) got encased in the shales that were forming on the sea bed due to erosion. This was a one time event which was also largely responsible for the oxygenation of the atmosphere. (Plants consume CO2 and release Oxygen).

Coal comes from trees but the great coal deposits were formed prior to the evolution of bacteria that could consume dead wood fiber. So the early forests didn’t decay as they did today, the dead trees just pilled up sometimes to depths of hundreds of feet. Eventually they got buried and “fossilized” but maintained most of their energy content.

Both of these events were “one time”, the conditions no longer exist for them to occur today. However when I say “one time event” keep in mind they were events that lasted 100 million years +/-. So a lot of carbon could be sequestered in the ground during these events. Most of it will never be recovered due to economic constraints.

People who believe in “Abiotic Oil” simply do not know what they are talking about. They assume because oil is found in the ground it is formed somehow in the earth’s core and there is an unlimited supply. But we can prove this idea false simply by three facts: There is no proposed method or source of carbon in the earth’s core, oil is always found in or above shale deposits, and unrefined oil has genetic markers (gene fragments). A forth damning factor is that we can make oil from algae by simulating the heat and pressure found in the shale deposits buried at depth, so we know the proposed process works. There is no discussion going on in scientific circles about the matter anymore.

Conventional oil was not extracted from the source rock, it was too deep and uneconomic until recently. Instead, domes and other underground structures, sometimes large coral reefs in the case of Leduc, that had filled up with oil and trapped it were targeted. (Oil is lighter than water so if it escapes or gets squeezed out of the shale it migrates towards the surface.) Most of this conventional oil has already been found and is now in production.

Because conventional oil is in or soon to be in decline, higher prices lead to a technological revolution in oil drilling and fracking practices and technology that we call the “shale oil boom”. In practice though, a shale oil well must be drilled far deeper, and vertical for long distances once the target is reached, and frack’d far more intensively, and uses much more horsepower, steel, cement, sand, water, and labor than conventional wells did. And although initial production is impressive, the wells don’t last long because shale is not very porous, so oil not contacted by the fracturing process does not migrate through to the well very effectively. Only oil in close proximity to a fracture can be recovered. Shale gas has better prospects because it’s just a single carbon molecule and can fit through smaller spaces, so the recovery rates are better. But oil is much more valuable at this current juncture.

So what does all this mean? It means that oil, natural gas, and coal, are indeed non-renewable resources. Whatever amount of them there are, and the number keeps changing as new reserves are discovered, but there is and always will be a finite amount. Once we use it all up there will be no more.

So, when will that be? In a 1998 Scientific American article Colin J. Campbell and Jean H. Laherrère estimated that cheap, conventional oil would “peak” in 2006. They seem to have been right within a few years, and peak conventional oil is a rear-view mirror event. Most of the additions since have come from “expensive oil” additions like tar sands and shale oil. Prices haven’t ever returned to 1998 levels either.

So what does all this mean? It means that oil wells are not like water wells. There is no “rain from below” that keeps filling them up again. Once the oil is extracted and burned it is gone, never to be replaced. It is a “finite” resource. You can’t replant the oil forest like you can with trees. The same is true of coal and natural gas, although the decline rates are different.

So what does all of that mean then? Well, the news isn’t good. Despite all of the nuclear power plants, hydro dams, wind farms, and solar panels we’ve been slapping up haphazardly, “fossil fuels” still make up the lion’s share of our energy supply. Until a “silver bullet” solution is found, maybe thorium or maybe fusion, the long term prospects for the industrial experiment are bleak. 100 years from now, what humans who survive the nuclear war, if any do, will be living like the Romans did. They’ll be using horses and oxen, not tractors, to till the land.

And that my friends is the unavoidable truth. Enjoy the party while you can and the whisky bottle is still half full. And don’t have any children. They will have to live (and die) through all of this. If you’ve already had children, don’t beat yourself up, you didn’t know.

#46 EP on 07.27.18 at 8:54 pm

…looks more like a change in leadership in stocks but still overall up

#47 Adam on 07.27.18 at 8:54 pm

How do you think the unthinkable?

With an itheberg.

#48 The Real Mark on 07.27.18 at 8:57 pm

#36 Richard on 07.27.18 at 8:04 pm
The Real Mark #9 says it all and understands the situation.

Thanks Dick. Comments like this are what makes the countless hours I spend researching worthwhile.

See Leo the troll, others agree with my analysis.

#49 BS on 07.27.18 at 8:59 pm

Yeah, it was good. Not as sexy as the 5% jump under Obama in 2015

Obama had the worst GDP growth performance of any president in history. He averaged 1.8% over 8 years and is the only president in history to not have even one year at 3% or above. One quarter at 5% under Obama after nearly 7 years of sub 2% growth is not worth mentioning.

It was a global credit crisis. Silly comment. – Garth

#50 Leslie on 07.27.18 at 9:09 pm

Man… This is crazy…this lady is 70….let her do whatever she want ..just don’t borrow..

#51 akashic record on 07.27.18 at 9:12 pm

Abnormal is the new normal.

#52 arfmoocat on 07.27.18 at 9:25 pm

70 and still working… keep going mama !!!

I’m turning 62 in a week and hope I can keep it going that long.

#53 Poor Okanagan Air Quality Again on 07.27.18 at 9:29 pm

Babyn says he’s a healthy man, and he is finding the smoke is making breathing difficult.

Welcome to the smokanagan.

Same crap air quality every year.

#54 The Real Mark on 07.27.18 at 9:30 pm

#48, sigh, knock that off. Personation on a blog comments section? Seriously somebody needs a life.

#55 Mattl by Royal Lepage on 07.27.18 at 9:34 pm

It has never been a better time to buy BC Real Estate.

#56 Leo Trollstoy on 07.27.18 at 9:38 pm

I’ve dealt w old financially illiterate ppl when my parents were alive

Short answer is that they’re hopeless

You can’t change ppl

If they’ve sucked w money for half a century, they’ll suck w money forever

#57 Leo Trollstoy on 07.27.18 at 9:42 pm

#18 BlorgDorg on 07.27.18 at 7:03 pm

Totally correct

Don’t get close to financially illiterate old ppl. Esp family. They’ll drown themselves and everybody around them and then blame you for it

#58 akashic record on 07.27.18 at 9:45 pm

Stripping away private property…

First it was software: you could not buy it, you licensed it. Then you can’t even license it, you must rent it.

Then came music, movies.

Cars are in the process of shifting out of ownership, making them too expensive to buy.

Land, real estate to follow.

All papa’s mama’s remaining property to be moved to stock market, which is controlled, influenced by monetary policies, central banks, lobbyist of virtual monopoly industry giants.

Central economy. Masses dependent on government.
Monolithic political power. Monopoly on ideology, science, culture, community standards.

Deja vu script if you lived long enough at a variety of places. Brave new world for born and raised North Americans.

#59 Leo Trollstoy on 07.27.18 at 9:46 pm

im luvin my US$ all day ery day!

C$ parity w US$ no time soon

lol

#60 Difference between Vancouver and Kelowna on 07.27.18 at 9:47 pm

Nothing.

Strange look from people when saying hi.

Insanely high shelter prices.

Dog eat dog.

Everybody in debt up to their eyeballs.

Cut you off in traffic, etc.

Feedback loop from either too much debt or being priced out fueling anger and populism.

#61 x-moose on 07.27.18 at 9:48 pm

I lurk here now and then for a very long time, mostly to feed my Schdenfreude sentiments from the galaxy far far away (SoCal). It is interesting to see how the minds of supposedly better off and better educated part of the populace work. Then to extrapolate. The picture, as Jordan Peterson – the newly discovered master of the obvious, would say is “Not good”:

The endlessly repeated mantra of balanced portfolio returning magic 6-8%, to which simpletons cheer many times over every night, is hopelessly flawed, based on the ridiculous notion that the markets are not rigged. They are. One may get 7% over the last few years but this is meaningless unless one is a speculator. The historic returns, dating from before WW1 are also meaningless: there was the gold standard and money meant something else back then.

The plug can and will be pulled at the right moment.

Hey, out of necessity of being a non resident, and not being able to actively manage my RRSP account, I left it stagnate in that perfect balanced portfolio fantasy land of preferred stocks and bonds ETFs for 10 years now. Combined with the same 10 years of balanced 401k from the Fortune 10 company (Retire in 2030 or some such crap by Fidelity), my total investment return is about 2%. This is on par with the GIC return. Actually I do better at Tangerine: I make close to 3% there and it is tax free because interest income is below my individual exemption (even for a non resident).

I am looking forward to when they decide to have the next round of WFR (a gentle term of corporate speak to what happens a lot to the companies that “return value to shareholders” in the age of full employment and 4.6% annual GDP growth, to move to the NB backwater and purchase a couple of goats. If only I find a few acres not contaminated with Agent Orange that is.

Good idea, since you suck at investing. – Garth

#62 akashic record on 07.27.18 at 9:53 pm

Imagine if the governments of Hitler and Stalin had access to Google data… we would not have any of those movies you saw where truth and freedom had some kind of happy end.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-27/what-does-google-know-about-you-complete-guide

#63 Jacques Strappe on 07.27.18 at 9:56 pm

“Royalty income is treated like regular earned wages”.
———————————————-

Garth – not sure this is true actually. I’ve had my own experience with mineral rights and strangely, if you sell them they are taxed as income, but the royalties are taxed as capital gain. Yes, backward. I know.

If anyone owns highly prospective mineral rights that are yet to be exploited, they should consider incorporating them. Ditto if Malcom’s mother is considering kicking the bucket any time soon. When she moves on, the govt will tax all future royalties as a deemed disposition, potentially forcing the beneficiaries to sell the MRs to cover the tax liability.

https://www.mnp.ca/en/posts/freehold-mineral-rights-canadian-resource-property-for-income-tax-purpose

#64 First we saw it in Vancouver, now the Okanagan on 07.27.18 at 10:01 pm

Read this community letter published recently.

LETTER: When will Kelowna city councillors address needle problem?

Let’s talk needles. Not homelessness, not drug use but needles. Needles in our parks. Needles on our beaches. Needles in our lakes.

Instead of pointing out the problem (needles everywhere) I would like to suggest some solutions. How about raking all public beaches every morning? Perhaps 24 hr patrol for all parks? Temporary fencing at night? It may not solve all problems but it’s a start.

https://infotel.ca/opinion/letters-to-the-editor/letter-when-will-kelowna-city-councillors-address-needle-problem/it54419

This is exactly what happened in Vancouver.

#65 Boomer Buddy Just bought a Condo in Vancouver on 07.27.18 at 10:05 pm

He will be 92 years old when the $4,500 per month (at current rates) mortgage is paid off.

#66 Traffic Fun on 07.27.18 at 10:15 pm

#32 FOUR FINGERS WATSON

The drive from Kelowna to Westbank is like a George Massey Tunnel re-make.

Forget about it. Same jam pretty much year round.

If anyone knows what I am talking about then they will know what a bottle neck this area is.

Road development is way behind. More interested in getting condo towers up. They are talking about a second bridge. Kind of needed it yesterday. Won’t see it for 20 years probably.

The other brutal drive is coming in from Quail Ridge to downtown. Plan for about 45 minutes to drive 10 km. Just a nightmare.

Traffic is a mess there. Just like Vancouver.

#67 Mortgage Prison: Sydney Home Prices Suffer Largest Annual Decline Since 2008 on 07.27.18 at 10:27 pm

News AU reports House Prices Drop in Sydney, as Melbourne Prices Stall.

Apartment Boom Comes to End

Next up, please consider Construction Set for Biggest Decline Since the Global Financial Crisis

Mortgage Prison

Finally, and most importantly, please consider Aussie Homeowners Trapped in ‘Mortgage Prison’.

Oops!

As an example in which a couple was able to borrow $800,000 a year ago can now only borrow $680,000 under the same rules.

They are now trapped in a mortgage with no way to refinance and no buyers because of declining prices.

#68 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 07.27.18 at 10:31 pm

#53 Poor Okanagan Air Quality Again on 07.27.18 at 9:29 pm
Babyn says he’s a healthy man, and he is finding the smoke is making breathing difficult.

Welcome to the smokanagan.

Same crap air quality every year.
……………………….

The air quality index in Kelowna jumped to 4 from a low 2 earlier this week since the Wilden fire broke out Friday afternoon.

Don Babyn, a pharmacist (#7092) tells Castanet he is available if anyone needs Ventolin, commonly referred to as a blue puffer, used primarily by asthma sufferers.

“I live just down the road and can be available if residents or police and emergency crews need my help. I can be reached by cell at 250-869-6996.”

Babyn says he’s a healthy man, and he is finding the smoke is making breathing difficult.

#69 arfmoocat on 07.27.18 at 10:38 pm

Just finished 3 weeks working in West Kelowna, aka:Westbank

I was so glad to get out of there, all the hotel/motel prices are jacked sky high for summer rip off season and I couldn’t even find one with my $150 a day perdium.

Ended up staying at UBC in a dorm room for $100 a night and driving 2 hours a day there and back stopping at every intersection for a red light.

The place sucked

#70 Ronaldo on 07.27.18 at 10:46 pm

#18 BorgDorg

”Most of my friends’ parents are in a similar situation: retired, no net worth, financially illiterate, ageing rapidly, unwilling to listen to reason, even if it’s from their kids.”
——————————————————————-
You need to consider hanging out with a different crowd.

#71 x-moose on 07.27.18 at 10:46 pm

Good idea, since you suck at investing. – Garth

Wasn’t preferred / bonds ETF your go to mantra since, like, forever? Oh, and don’t dismiss Fidelity Retire in Whenever 401k lightly: the plans are as diverse and by the book balanced as one can get. With MER of 0.2% if you work for the right people. Google it.

I suck in investing, I fully admit. Aside form an odd million stashed in the above, all I got are a few rolls of corrosion resistant Mapple Leafs, the last manual transmission M6 on Earth, a daily dose of Pino Noir with some fine fromage and very sound sleep while Mr Yellen or whomever is in her/his place is plotting the next globalist revolution and fine Nigerian folks trot into la Belle Province.

#72 S.Bby on 07.27.18 at 10:50 pm

#60
And the Smokey air.

#73 Ronaldo on 07.27.18 at 10:59 pm

#52 arfmoocat on 07.27.18 at 9:25 pm

70 and still working… keep going mama !!!

I’m turning 62 in a week and hope I can keep it going that long
———————————————————–
Sounds like we were born on the same day…..only I have you beat by 10 yrs……

#74 akashic record on 07.27.18 at 11:03 pm

America’s dirty secret is the coming democratic socialism.

The details are really murky if you are trying to figure out the blueprint from the rising star posterperson.

“The Daily Show” host @Trevornoah asked Socialist congressional candidate Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (@Ocasio2018) how she plans to pay for her agenda.

https://twitter.com/DailyCaller/status/1022852142682570752/video/1

All the talk about “the rich paying their fair share” and Average Joe carbontaxed to his core for the greater good is just willful obscurage (it’s a brand new English world, I just invented it, spare your whining posts grammar Nazis) of the truth.

We all remember when the Americans stuck their flag on the Moon, which gives them all the mineral rights.
That’s what their soldier, Neil Amstrong was talking about while descending from the ladder, “that’s one small step for a man, one giant leap for mankind”. Mankind translates to US government in proper American English.

Neverthless, he was referring to the coming golden age of Americankind, since NASA knew by then that our shiny sister in the sky is actually an artificial object, that contains high concentration of GLD. This was quickly confirmed from the dust and rocks that the American space soldiers brought back to Earth.

Many wonders why NASA lost further interest in Moon travel, the reason is simple. Once NASA legal confirmed that sticking the US flag converts yo mineral rights, the focus of the space agency quickly shifted for securing the bright democratic future of the USA. All they had to do was the get in touch with the Anunaki, who used to mine gold on Earth before, even taking the trouble of genetically engineering semi-intelligent humans from some ancient dull spieces to run the dirty work. Once the secret handshake was established, the US government secretly licensed their mineral rights to the Anunaki.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, of course doesn’t know any of this, she just got the leak of the coming American democratic socialism. She has no clue that it is actually true and it will have much more reliable financing that she could imagine. The Anunaki will send the US government the royalty checks. The disclosure is close, all that needs to be decided, whether the Anunaki is interested to also buy the labor supply for the gold mining operation from the Americans, who could cut deal with China and other governments to send their unemployed off sight.

#75 Long-Time Lurker on 07.27.18 at 11:52 pm

>It’s interesting. I read a piece by Harvard Law Professor and Constitutional Law expert Alan Dershowitz where he’s still wondering who leaked the Trump-Cohen audiotape to CNN. So the leaker might not have been Cohen’s lawyer, Davis.

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/12767/who-leaked-the-trump-tape

Who Leaked the Trump Tape?
by Alan M. Dershowitz
July 26, 2018 at 6:00 pm

Someone leaked the lawyer/client confidential tape containing a conversation between President Donald J. Trump and his lawyer Michael Cohen. A former judge, assigned by the presiding judge to evaluate the seized tapes, reportedly concluded that this conversation was privileged. Yet someone leaked their contents. The President Trump’s current lawyer, Rudy Giuliani, then waived the privilege as to that tape. He said he never would have waived it had its existence and content not been improperly leaked.

So, the question remains: Who leaked this privileged material? If it was anyone in the Trump camp, there would be no violation of confidentiality, as the privilege belongs to the client, namely Trump, who can waive it. But no one else, most especially his lawyer, may properly waive the privilege. And Giuliani has categorically denied that it was leaked by Trump or anyone on his behalf. Indeed, he has expressed outrage at the leak.

Whom does that leave? Cohen is an obvious suspect, although I am confident that his excellent and experienced lawyer, Lanny Davis, would not have done so. Perhaps Cohen himself, who ran into Michael Avenatti at a restaurant, told him about the tape. We simply do not know.

It is unlikely that any judicial or prosecutorial authority is responsible for the leak, because they would have more to lose than to gain if they were caught.

>So the Trump team is unlikely, the Mueller team is unlikely, and even Davis is unlikely. So the likely leaker of the Trump-Cohen tape was Cohen himself.

#76 Mattl on 07.28.18 at 12:10 am

#55 – bud I feel for you, missing out on the biggest wealth opp we will see in this lifetime. I would be bitter too.

I would not go all in on BC real eatate right now, it is absolutely overpriced, and bless the good lord I don’t have to. Believe it or not we all didn’t buy in last month.

I feel sad for you, I do hope there is a correction that gets you out of your basement suite in Rutland! God willing you will find a place at 2015 prices and twice the interest rates. That would be a huge win.

#77 Oft deleted much maligned stock picker on 07.28.18 at 1:38 am

The CRA prides itself on ripping off helpless old ladies .

https://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/taxes/switch-to-electronic-tax-slip-almost-costs-pensioner-a-10000-penalty

I know a student who was ripped off when a bank had overlooked a mailing. They fined him $1500, and when the acct applied for understanding including a letter admitting oversight from the bank …the CRA said….”Get it from your family or take us to tax court”. And who is the tax court….the scum at CRA.

#78 Greg on 07.28.18 at 2:11 am

#23 Parksville Prankster on 07.27.18 at 7:16 pm
@15 – WordPress, with his own theme design. You can type the address of any site here and it’ll let you know if it’s WordPress or not.

https://www.isitwp.com/

————————

Thanks for the info Parksville!

#79 Smoking Man on 07.28.18 at 3:55 am

Vegas again dogs. Place is way to damn close to home. Feeling weak. Over abused my body for thrills. Be paying the piper soon.

Life is for living, death lasts a long time.

#80 technical analysis?? on 07.28.18 at 7:11 am

“Donald Trump is the inflation president. He wants growth, expansion, jobs and spending. The price of that will be higher debt and rates. To think otherwise is rash.”

and to think stock prices will rise under those conditions is equally foolish. higher inflation, higher rates = lower p/e and lower stock prices.

Not really. Higher inflation flows from increased economic activity which fuels profitability. Look at the chart. – Garth

#81 The real Kip on 07.28.18 at 8:24 am

“The woman may be nice, and your mom etc., but she obviously can’t be trusted with money.“

Really? What happens if Mom tells sonny-boy to go dunk his head in the toilet? I’m 60 and I’d use the money pretty much the same as Mom, pay off debts and bank the rest in SECURE places. Does that mean my 35 year old daughter should get power of attorney over me and take over my finances?

She’s 78, not 60. She blew the cash irresponsibly and not in her own best interests. Her concerned child has a responsibility for her well-being. Getting a POA is insurance against what looks to be inevitable for a financial illiterate. It does not mean forcing decisions on the parent. BTW, I feel for your kid. – Garth

#82 Gravy Train on 07.28.18 at 8:27 am

#74 akashic record on 07.27.18 at 11:03 pm
“All the talk about ‘the rich paying their fair share’ and Average Joe carbon-taxed to his core for the greater good is just willful obscurage (it’s a brand new English world, I just invented it, spare your whining posts grammar Nazis) of the truth[….]”

Er, um. You need not coin a word for one that already exists: obfuscation. :)

#83 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.28.18 at 8:37 am

@#32 Four Fingers
“Thirty minutes this morning to cross the bridge from Kelowna to Westbank. Bumper to bumper….”
++++

Tourists getting the Hell out of Smokanagan or Evacuees?

#84 technical analysis?? on 07.28.18 at 8:38 am

that a new economic theory??

Not really. Higher inflation flows from increased economic activity which fuels profitability. Look at the chart. – Garth

#85 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.28.18 at 8:46 am

@#74 akashic ravings

Off your meds again?

#86 Reynolds531 on 07.28.18 at 8:50 am

#45 flat Earth

You’re right. Except methol hydrate. Problem solved.

#87 Bytor the Snow Dog on 07.28.18 at 9:01 am

Well, it looks like Flop kept his promise (so far). I predict he’ll be back. All addicts eventually return to their habit.

#88 Asterix1 on 07.28.18 at 9:01 am

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/toronto/article-buyers-warned-of-bidding-war-for-coveted-entertainment-district-condo/

Sold for 685,000$ (369K in 2013)
– Only 663sqf
– Bedroom is in a closet, no windows.

This is insane! And idiotic…

#89 akashic record on 07.28.18 at 9:20 am

#82 Gravy Train on 07.28.18 at 8:27 am

#74 akashic record on 07.27.18 at 11:03 pm
“All the talk about ‘the rich paying their fair share’ and Average Joe carbon-taxed to his core for the greater good is just willful obscurage (it’s a brand new English world, I just invented it, spare your whining posts grammar Nazis) of the truth[….]”

Er, um. You need not coin a word for one that already exists: obfuscation. :)

—-

Of course, obscurage exploits your mental memory of obfuscation, but ob is not a root word, it’s a prefix at best, you grammar commmie.

Obscurage is the word that mixes mental memories of obfuscation, the mirage of courage and certainty of getting screwed at the end.

Just the right phrase to put in the same sentence with American democratic socialism.

#90 Aspirant maple leaf dweller on 07.28.18 at 9:23 am

Its all about supply right? Yes but not how those with self serving agendas would see it. In fact there is too much supply and no demand. I suspect prices are cracking significantly

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/british-columbia/article-proposal-for-luxury-condo-tower-in-vancouver-pulled-amid-signs-of-weak/

I can only offer anecdotal evidence gathered in my own house search for detached homes but $300k to $500k price reductions are now common place. At this rate my dream of owning a beautiful vancouver home will be realised.

#91 Joe on 07.28.18 at 9:28 am

West side Vancouver fire sale.

1243 64th Ave W
Ask 1.59
Assessed 1.95

After sitting for months on the market (pics still with snow) they decide to slash the price and relist.

Only dumb money now getting into condos and townhomes but even that has slowed.

#92 The Real Mark on 07.28.18 at 9:29 am

I’m writing a biography on Ross Kay and looking for a few quotes for the cover. Would any of you like to read the final edit and provide?

The book is to be called ‘Ross Kay and 2013 Peak Canadian Real Estate Prices’. It’s a graphic novel.

#93 akashic record on 07.28.18 at 9:37 am

#85 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.28.18 at 8:46 am

@#74 akashic ravings

Off your meds again?

What? You still have not connected the dots that Trump’s tariffs are all about lowering the cost of foreign labour, to be sold for the Anunaki in a package deal to exploit American gold mining rights on the Moon?

The extra money goes to purchase Anunaki technology that gives American production of goods and services skyhigh advantage over other economies, as Area 51 used to provide.

Anunaki royalty checks and technology will substitute the economic role of the middle-class in the revamped American Dream, politically manifested as democratic socialism to make it more swallowable for the rest of the envy world, left out of the #MAGA deal.

#94 NoName on 07.28.18 at 10:07 am

wow, what we have here, one that don’t believe in the moon landing, one that does, with mentions of mining gold on it. Why gold why not helium. Now i wonder when they were talking and making loose plans for mining on a moon, what concept won open pit or underground.

Now that we/i are on space tpoic, it cost around 20k usd to lift 1kg to lower orbit, a one-way trip is a way cheaper and simpler vs round trip, just plain old phisics.

(Atlas V can launch 8123 kg for $164 Million per a 2015 about ULA’s rocket building & launch business. That works out to $20,200 per kg.)

Cheapest thing we can send in space are baby squids 1-8usd each…

https://www.businessinsider.com/spacex-rocket-cargo-price-by-weight-2016-6#bottle-of-water-9100-to-43180-1

#95 TurnerNation on 07.28.18 at 10:12 am

The stage is set the fix is in, the die is cast.

Former Toronto “city planner” Jennifer K has been all over Twitter and news, and now making a run for mayoral office.
IMO it is the same single-drum densification agenda banged.

Toronto city council apparently will slash its ranks and consolidate power within a few.

What would you think the outcome.

#96 Jimers on 07.28.18 at 10:21 am

#45 Flat Earth Society on 07.27.18 at 8:53 pm

Future is in abiotic gas, not oil. The Russians have discovered NatGas deep down, below the bathyscape(where temp > 100C), meaning in places where life has never existed, indicating that it is being produced inorganically, and likely continuously. Analogies have been made to Saturn’s gas moon Titan and a virtually unlimited supply of methane.

#97 Conspiratard on 07.28.18 at 10:21 am

Bush 1’s doctor murdered in Houston.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/25/us/mark-hausknecht-possibly-targeted-houston/index.html

Targetted killing. Multiple shots at a moving target. Totally accurate, military-style precision and sequencing, two to the chest, then one to the head.

Revenge against the Bush family for opposing Trump.

Watch out Cohen, you’re next. Better stay in the hotel room for now. Trump will get you though, one way or another.

Coincidence? I think not.

I think not.

#98 Mom on 07.28.18 at 10:31 am

Hmmm, when might the idiot years end? insurance companies say 25… feels like forever

#99 dharma bum on 07.28.18 at 11:01 am

Hey Malcolm,

Guess what?

Not your problem.

It’s her money. She couldn’t figure it out when she was in her prime – she ain’t gonna figure it out now.

Let her be. Easy come, easy go.

Oh, and getting POA? Hahahahahahahahahahaha!

If the bitch won’t listen to you about how to budget, save, and invest, do you really think you’ll convince her to go to a lawyer and have the documents drafted?

And after the lawyer goes through the mandatory explanation that this POA is essentially a document whereby she signs her life away by putting all of her financial decisions into the hands of another, do you think she’s just gonna say: “Great! Where do I sign?”?

Give it up. Let her spend her way into oblivion.

Maybe get a new car out of it for yourself before the cash disappears.

Having a POA in place does not mean it is invoked. Surely you understand that. – Garth

#100 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 07.28.18 at 12:10 pm

#93 akashic record on 07.28.18 at 9:37 am
#85 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.28.18 at 8:46 am

@#74 akashic ravings

Off your meds again?

What? You still have not connected the dots that Trump’s tariffs are all about lowering the cost of foreign labour, to be sold for the Anunaki in a package deal to exploit American gold mining rights on the Moon?

The extra money goes to purchase Anunaki technology that gives American production of goods and services skyhigh advantage over other economies, as Area 51 used to provide.

Anunaki royalty checks and technology will substitute the economic role of the middle-class in the revamped American Dream, politically manifested as democratic socialism to make it more swallowable for the rest of the envy world, left out of the #MAGA deal.
……………………………………

The Ferrenghi will be pissed. Prepare for tariffs and an inter galactic trade war. You heard it here first.

#101 The Real Mark on 07.28.18 at 12:28 pm

#88 Asterix1 on 07.28.18 at 9:01 am
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/toronto/article-buyers-warned-of-bidding-war-for-coveted-entertainment-district-condo/

Sold for 685,000$ (369K in 2013)
– Only 663sqf
– Bedroom is in a closet, no windows.

This is insane! And idiotic…
/////////////////////////

That is clearly false. It is an impossibility that the price of that condo is almost double what it was when it sold at it’s peak in 2013. The only way the price has increased is because, based on rumour, Prince Harry once had a dump in the toilette.

#102 Oft deleted much maligned stock.picker on 07.28.18 at 12:37 pm

DELETED

#103 Mattl on 07.28.18 at 12:48 pm

#90 – prices are definatley down in Van. But only running at 2016 levels. Lets say they give back 15-20 more points and end up at 2014 or 2012 levels. Is that when you jump? Serious question for those on the sidelines, how can you consider it a success to come in years later at same prices, with more expensive money? No one ever answers this question…. how do you justify prices you passed at, 200k in rent later with twice as much to borrow?

Thats the big flaw in the vulcher math.

#104 Ace Goodheart on 07.28.18 at 1:10 pm

Re: the old dearie:

78 is kind of close to the end of the road.

But she’s female. They live longer than males by about 15 years on average.

Yeah spending 120k per year in Royalty payments without considering income tax is kinda dangerous.

The tax Gods will not be pleased (women and girls all over the planet need our tax dollars urgently and T2 is more than willing to help out …. through his close family friends and their foundations).

Why is grandma living in Canada?

Does she like our winters? Maybe she thinks health care is only available here?

Why do rich folks live on private islands in the Bahamas?

The old dearie should become non resident.

Why pay taxes when you don’t have to?

Part of my retirement plan is getting out of here. Once I no longer need to run my businesses in a stable western democratic social welfare state, why would I choose to live here?

Cuban health care is better, cheaper and faster than what we have here. Have cancer? You can get the same 10,000 cancer drugs in Cuba for 100 convertible Pesos (ie $115 CDN). And you get seen quicker, by better doctors.

We live in a tax cesspool. If you need this place for a job I totally understand why you are here.

If you are retired, have a good income and are still paying our ridiculous tax rates while socialist leaders give your money to their friends, what in the world are you doing?

You can live like a Queen in Jamaica for $1500 CDN per month. I’m taking servants, large house, the whole thing.

Non resident, non resident, non resident.

Retiring in Canada is just dumb.

There are much better places to live

#105 AGuyInVancouver on 07.28.18 at 2:00 pm

#90 Aspirant maple leaf dweller on 07.28.18 at 9:23 am
Its all about supply right? Yes but not how those with self serving agendas would see it. In fact there is too much supply and no demand. I suspect prices are cracking significantly

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/british-columbia/article-proposal-for-luxury-condo-tower-in-vancouver-pulled-amid-signs-of-weak/

I can only offer anecdotal evidence gathered in my own house search for detached homes but $300k to $500k price reductions are now common place. At this rate my dream of owning a beautiful vancouver home will be realised.
_ _ _
Chinese developer building for Chinese clients who now can’t get the money out of China and also realized Big Daddy Xi and the CRA will start sharing tax info in September. Say goodbye to insanely priced condos.

#106 B Wilds on 07.28.18 at 2:05 pm

A great deal of America’s economy is based on deficit spending. While we fixate on an improving GDP the national debt is not just growing but it is exploding. An under-reported and unnoticed report was issued last week by the Office of Management and Budget which is required to from time to time review and update the U.S. federal budget. The report titled the “Mid-Session Review” paints a far bleaker forecast of the deficit going forward than originally predicted.

James Grant and Jim Chanos recently participated in a talk at the New York Historical Society, both men make it perfectly clear they see what is being cast upon us is a giant fraud. We should be dubious of those making promises this will end well. The article below delves into the bleak deficit numbers now being predicted.

http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2018/07/national-debt-exploding-is-fraud-cast.html

#107 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.28.18 at 2:43 pm

@#93 Akashic Ramblings

Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight.

#108 Shawn Allen on 07.28.18 at 3:22 pm

Logical sounding nut wrong

#24 Hababa on 07.27.18 at 7:16 pm
Money supply is the greatest inflationary measure.

|||||||||*********

Inflation is defined as the average change in prices so the change in prices would obviously be the best measure of inflation. Not easy to measure but that is the correct measure.

Is there any actually any great correlation between money supply and inflation?

But no matter, since those who “know” inflation is high and refuse to believe official figures know what they know. I mean why believe the real figures when you prefer to believe something else?

#109 LP on 07.28.18 at 4:33 pm

#81 The real Kip on 07.28.18 at 8:24 am
BTW, I feel for your kid. – Garth

Garth – That’s at least the 2nd time this post you’ve expressed concern for the well-being of our children (first mine and now Kip’s). What exactly do you mean? Go ahead, spit it out; we can take it. ;>)

#110 akashic record on 07.28.18 at 5:31 pm

#100 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 07.28.18 at 12:10 pm

#93 akashic record on 07.28.18 at 9:37 am
#85 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.28.18 at 8:46 am

@#74 akashic ravings

Off your meds again?

What? You still have not connected the dots that Trump’s tariffs are all about lowering the cost of foreign labour, to be sold for the Anunaki in a package deal to exploit American gold mining rights on the Moon?

The extra money goes to purchase Anunaki technology that gives American production of goods and services skyhigh advantage over other economies, as Area 51 used to provide.

Anunaki royalty checks and technology will substitute the economic role of the middle-class in the revamped American Dream, politically manifested as democratic socialism to make it more swallowable for the rest of the envy world, left out of the #MAGA deal.
……………………………………

The Ferrenghi will be pissed. Prepare for tariffs and an inter galactic trade war. You heard it here first.

I haven’t heard of the Ferrenghi, but it has a Star Trekish energy footprint resonance, based on the half episode I ever watched.

Anyway, there is no “f” in MAGA, the Moon Anunaki Gold Accord.

It will make America great again by also decoupling from the petro dollar, and switching to the exclusive Moon gold royalty wealth based currency, processed in BTC. For anyone doubting the universal intrinsic value, the new US Space Force will give the guidance.

#111 Linda on 07.28.18 at 6:12 pm

About the mama – the woman is 78, for heaven’s sake. How much time do you think she has left to live? Canadian life expectancy for women is 84. Even if she lives to be 90, that is at most 12 years. While it is prudent to set aside funds in case the cash flow suddenly gets cut off & especially set aside enough dough so the CRA gets what it is due, she should enjoy it while she can. Doesn’t should like she has had a lot of opportunity to splurge up till now.

#112 Smalltownsteve on 07.28.18 at 7:52 pm

6/6(got the bonus question right too)

#113 Frito on 07.28.18 at 8:02 pm

I worked at a CA firm in the early 80’s. We had a number of clients in the Vancouver Stock Exchange mining penny stocks game (remember Murray Pezzim?). I will always remember advice my boss gave me on how the stock market works (worked?).

Up on speculation, down on fact.

Almost 40 years later…

#114 Smoking Man on 07.29.18 at 3:26 am

Doug. We go through life trying to make the best choices. .

What if an asteroid hits you in the head while jogging?

Just saying. Learn to live. If you run out of money before death. You won. Your kids will hate you. So what .

Had a nefew bite the farm 4 years ago. Kid was a rock star on the way to super star. , his folks still fkd. What a lesson.

Live bitches live…..