Lofted

“I’m a long time reader of the blog and finally in a financial situation to follow some advice,” says Timothy, which is good, because he needs it.

“I have zero debt after aggressively paying it down over the years.  Bought a condo/loft a few years back right in downtown Toronto, worth $725-750k, remaining mortgage 300k.  Zero investments (personal debt was the priority), TFSA/RRSP contributions untouched.  I have a defined-benefit pension plan and make just over 100k salary.

“The options I am considering:
1.  Sell the condo, invest the 400k and come visit you as I don’t feel comfortable managing that amount of money with my limited knowledge in the market.
2. Stay put in my Condo.  My unit is a 1 bedroom hard loft in King West, and many tell me this area/unit won’t follow the typical market fluctuations the looming rate hikes should create.  Though I am having a hard time believing there is much more room for equity growth for a 1 bed, 1 bath condo worth 750ish K.
3. My GF (also owns a condo with about 300k equity in it, rents it at $800 monthly profit) and I have been looking at houses in the Beaches area.  I’m not sure if I want to buy, it’s more her dream, but again, many people I know keep telling me the Beaches are never going down in value, and get in now, it’s a great investment.  However, while dropping into some open houses, 1.2 million doesn’t go very far in that area and I just can’t wrap my head around spending/incurring that much debt for a house that needs an incredible amount of work before I could be happy living in it.

“Ultimately I’m just trying to make the smartest financial decision for my future, I’m fine with renting vs owning, but concerned about getting out of the market and finding my buying power significantly less down the road if the Beaches/King west area continues the growth.  Also the rental market in the beach area comes at a serious premium, but I’m a firm believer of living where you play and jointly renting with the GF will reduce my monthly bills over our current situation by about 1k. Any advice is much appreciated!”

I wrote Tim and asked how the GF can make $800 renting a one-bedder. “So her unit is worth about 500k,” he replied. “Her mortgage + prop taxes is about $1100 monthly.  Condo fees $400 and Insurance $50.  She has a mortgage balance of approx $175k remaining. She is just moving in a new tenant at $2500 (fully furnished unit).  She has not in the past claimed as a taxable income, but will most likely going forward.  I pay the majority of the bills on my unit, about $2300, while she pays me $1000 per month.”

What’s wrong with this picture? Lots.

First, Tim has only one asset, no liquid investments, no financial reserves and a house-horny GF. Never a good combo. That might be tolerable, but she’s in the same situation and thinks her unit is a money machine. Such delusion. Added to the overhead of $1,550 per month is the $1,750 which the equity could be generating in a balanced portfolio. So the true ownership cost is $3,300 a month, for a loss of $800. In addition, the rental income must be added to her existing income and taxed at that marginal rate (she’s now a criminal). The loss, then, is even greater.

As for Tim, he’s correct to expect little or no growth on a one-bedroom loft that cost three-quarters of a million. (We have lost our way…) The city is a forest of condo cranes with huge new supply coming down the pipe. Can Tim & babe stay in a small loft forever? Unlikely. But spending $1.2 million on a dodgy house in the hipster east end is hardly an intelligent move – even if she sees the light, sells her unit and combines it with his equity.

That would leave them with a $500,000 mortgage and an unrenovated, largely unlivable house – so another hundred or two in debt would be added. Now the couple would have a bigger borrowing, no liquid assets and a single shared asset. Worse, they’re not married, which adds more risk. If one person walks, it guarantees the real estate must be liquidated, regardless of market conditions.

So, dilemma. They can’t really live long-term in either condo. Capital appreciation on those units is unlikely. Jumping to a semi is a huge leap. And yet, on paper, the two of them own $1.2 million worth of real estate with $700,000 in equity. It’s a classic lesson in why buying condos is an idiot move for most young people, leading to more complication as life inevitably evolves.

So a good option is to sell both and invest. Turn the $700,000 into a million in five or six years and buy the single-family home in the moribund, rate-slowed market that lies ahead. Wait and see if the relationship holds. Decide if you want a family. Get used to having the security, flexibility and promise of holding financial assets. Revel in mortgage freedom. Set up individual accounts and grow funds tax-free as well as a joint non-registered vehicle. Rent a unit from some sucker who doesn’t understand he’s subsidizing you. Stop drinking the DT loft Kool-Aid. And get the misguided waif to read this blog.

That should fix everything.

115 comments ↓

#1 Midnights on 07.24.18 at 4:48 pm

Quote…
The most obvious manifestation of the affordable housing crisis is in rising rents. Between 1900 and 2013, rents rose faster than inflation in virtually every region of the country and in cities, suburbs, and rural areas alike. But there is another important factor at work here that is an even bigger part of the story than the hikes in rent: a fall in the earnings of renters. Between 2000 and 2012 alone, rents rose by 6 percent. During that same period, the real income of the middling renter in the United States fell 13 percent. What was once a fissure has become a wide chasm that often can’t be bridged.

#2 Lee on 07.24.18 at 4:57 pm

Even at 7% compounded yearly you can’t turn $700,000 into any more than $1,100,000 before taxes. You would need at least 10% a year compounded to get to $1,300,000 over six years. And this is before factoring in their cost of renting. Can only do that with small cap etfs, and that is a risk (unless you can stomach a downturn – although otherwise small cap etfs outperform everything).

#3 The Real Mark on 07.24.18 at 5:05 pm

” Between 1900 and 2013, rents rose faster than inflation in virtually every region of the country and in cities, suburbs, and rural areas alike.”

Of course rents rose faster than inflation. The quality and quantity of RE that an average person occupies (as an owner or renter) has also grown significantly in terms of size and quality. What you rent (or own) today is much different than what a person would have rented in, say, 1900.

Family units have also enjoyed significant wage gains above inflation since 1900 to pay for those higher rents, whether imputed or actual.

I talk a lot here about the sales mix, and how changes to the sales mix have been responsible for most, if not all of the alleged “increases” in GVR/GTA RE since the 2013 peak. But the same concepts apply to rent. With the onslaught of brand new luxury rental units in the major cities, of course average rents will rise. But if you adjust rents for the changing mix, and compare rents sequentially on individual identical units, you’ll likely see that rent growth hasn’t been above inflation.

> Between 2000 and 2012 alone, rents rose by 6 percent.

I know that rents didn’t double in 12 years except in very specific niche situations, so I assume you’re referring to 6% over the span of 12 years, which is well beneath inflation over the time period.

“During that same period, the real income of the middling renter in the United States fell 13 percent.”

Perhaps, but again, you need to adjust for the fact that during the interval home ownership levels went to record highs, and a considerable proportion of the cohort that previously were renters, became owners. This adjustment alone drives a lot of the change in those numbers.

““I have zero debt after aggressively paying it down over the years. Bought a condo/loft a few years back right in downtown Toronto, worth $725-750k, remaining mortgage 300k…..”

Anyone other than me spot the subtle dishonesty in this statement? And no, I’m not even referring to the sheer impossibility of accumulating $400k of equity over “a few years” when RE prices on individual identical condo units have been flat in Toronto.

#4 HoweStreet.com on 07.24.18 at 5:05 pm

Ross Kay on HoweStreet.com Radio:
Some Banks are Lowering Rates.
China’s Real Estate Bubble.

https://www.howestreet.com/2018/07/23/some-banks-are-lowering-rates/

#5 Moniker on 07.24.18 at 5:08 pm

What happens when an entire generation of Canadians buy overpriced real estate, pay it off for their working lives, save little, then attempt to retire with just a paid off home?

#6 Karl on 07.24.18 at 5:21 pm

I’m in a slightly similar situation as Tim. I own a single searched in the GTA. The other main differences are that I have an infant with the plans to add another in a couple years. Also my wife, to the most likely envy of this forum, is not house horny and has no qualms with renting. Also we have a TFSA around 60K.

My question to you Garth, what happens if I decide to follow your strategy and wind up moving three or four times (or more), seeing my friends’ properties keep soaring in value and not having the stability of one home?

It’s not an easy choice.

#7 pay your taxes on 07.24.18 at 5:24 pm

” . Capital appreciation on those units is unlikely. ” Garth

Ever? Not even in 10 or 20 years?

I do guarantee that there will be hefty rent increases over that period of time. I’m playing devil’s advocate here as I have owned condos and will never do so again. That attitude has cost me hundreds of thousands in tax free appreciation since leaving the market, but I really did hate ownership that much. Still, these younuns have to live somewhere and even modest rent increases are a bitter pill to swallow.

#8 NotLegalAdvice on 07.24.18 at 5:28 pm

Garth, how much do I need to save before you help me invest my money? Like how do we create a well balanced diversified portfolio ?

#9 jess on 07.24.18 at 5:31 pm

Chinese Reversing Big U.S. Real Estate Buying Spree That Had Helped Boost Prices
Chinese investors become net sellers of U.S. commercial property for the first time in a decade -wsj

Rents are down and vacancy is up on one of the city’s famed shopping corridors
http://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20180723/REAL_ESTATE/180729968
===========
remember those rocket mortgages?
startup LoanSnap Inc. branson and j montana

https://www.therecord.com/news-story/8754001-the-end-of-the-resume-hiring-is-in-the-midst-of-a-technological-revolution-with-algorithms-chatbots/

Cathy O’Neil, a mathematician and author of the 2016 book “Weapons of Math Destruction,” worries that algorithms developed to predict whether an applicant will be a good fit based on the types of employees who have been successful before could perpetuate implicit biases.

DETROIT — The pair of allegedly rare Air Jordan sneakers arrived last month to the bunker-like Authentication Center of StockX, a Dan Gilbert-backed company that is one of Detroit’s fastest-growing startups.

One of the centre’s “authenticators” took a whiff of the Jordans and immediately knew something was off. Smell is one of the 25 to 30 indicators they can use to distinguish a legit shoe from a cheap knock-off.
==========================
mr. d. called it a witch hunt
hum maybe should have put the “smell” test to the mortgage loans

https://www.metrotimes.com/news-hits/archives/2017/08/30/on-dan-gilberts-ever-growing-rap-sheet-and-corporate-welfare

#10 Long-Time Lurker on 07.24.18 at 5:33 pm

#108, FloridaMan

Thanks! More fake news.

#11 Larry B on 07.24.18 at 5:38 pm

Best advice given in a long time that WILL be ignored.They can’t help themselves.

#12 Cherry Blossom on 07.24.18 at 5:39 pm

40 years ago the annual rental increase was 3% and the rents were $300 to $400 a month. Rents have escalated and the 3% stays the same at 3%. It’s too much of an annual increase. also there is a compounder in the adjustments. It is always 3% of the escalated amount AFTER the increases. At the very least the annual increase should remain a percentage of the original amount.

For seniors, the OAP goes up $6.00 a month and the rental increase is huge in comparison. This is NOT sustainable for the Seniors demography. We are on the verge of a Seniors a very large rental crisis……Even if the Seniors have to get subsidized that will be a huge financial burden on government…

#13 Dave on 07.24.18 at 5:46 pm

The global elite have herded the masses into debt slavery. When people thought $1M for a crack house was crazy, then 2 years later it peaked to $1.7M – that previous milestone was cheap. The billionaires have manipulated our mindset, we all now say a cool million is cheap for a 50 year old house.
Lost have lost our way…masses have been screwed for life.
This is why we cheer Trump, NDP BC taxes, anti globalism. Let it burn to hell, what do I care. Cant get any worse for 70% of Canadians

#14 The Real Mark on 07.24.18 at 5:51 pm

“#5 Moniker on 07.24.18 at 5:08 pm
What happens when an entire generation of Canadians buy overpriced real estate, pay it off for their working lives, save little, then attempt to retire with just a paid off home?”

Well for starters, productive assets *other* than RE will remain abnormally inexpensive. Like the TSX for example. When investments like the TSX indices remain cheap, individuals can build and accumulate a lot of wealth by investing in them.

Of course the situation of RE remaining an excessive allocation in portfolios can’t continue indefinitely. There is no historic precedent for such. No single asset class, not even gold, nor houses, nor tech stocks, can remain indefinitely elevated. Eventually the supply onslaught that the high prices causes ends up, ironically, collapsing the prices for that particular asset class. As we’ve been seeing in the post-2013 era.

Canadian banks, although they ordinarily would be structurally harmed through higher interest rates and falling RE prices (as they were in the US), actually stand to benefit from the fact that they are now in an excellent position to predate on their overly indebted clients. CMHC subprime mortgage insurance, which allowed many Canadians to purchase homes with subprime credit, also allows the banks effectively to adopt a ‘take it or leave it’ policy towards borrowers — with complete comfort that the CMHC will pay for a default if the bank cannot come to a deal with a customer to roll a loan.

In short, the coming years will represent perhaps one of the greatest transfers of wealth in history. Away from leveraged homeowners who have been so smug in the ‘free’ equity that the market granted them up until the 2013 plateau in prices. And towards primarily shareholders in banks and even much of the rest of the currently deeply out of favour TSX. The BoC will be forced to keep rates low for probably a good coming decade, if not longer, just to deal with the deflationary fallout unfolding.

#15 espressobob on 07.24.18 at 5:53 pm

If I’ve learned anything over the years reading Garths blog it boils down to two things. Cash-flow and balance. It’s tough to have it any other way.

Piling all that hard earned dough into a single asset could prove disappointing. Lemming mentality.

There are far better challenges in life and more rewarding.

#16 Wallflower on 07.24.18 at 5:54 pm

um…………. almost nobody reports their rental income… I am late 50s – only ever knew one person who reported it; and, I suspect he only reported some of it – he is a serial flipper and certainly does NOT report this as he sees it all as principal ownership and yet it ain’t – it has been the driver for his wealth accumulation

#17 SoggyShorts on 07.24.18 at 5:57 pm

#78 MF on 07.24.18 at 6:59 am
#67 viorelli on 07.24.18 at 12:08 am

1. The climate is exactly the same as it was when I was growing up in the 80’s and 90’s.

*************************************
What are you basing that statement on?
Seventeen of the 18 warmest years in the 136-year record all have occurred since 2001, with the exception of 1998.
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/WorldOfChange/decadaltemp.php

#18 The Real Mark on 07.24.18 at 6:05 pm

“Ever? Not even in 10 or 20 years? “

Toronto RE, on individual identical units, in a long-term falling rate environment no less, took 13-14 years to recover its value in the aftermath of the 1989/1990 bubble peak. From less inflated valuations no less relatively speaking.

So 20 years of stagnation is entirely possible, especially as long-term rates will have a hard time falling to anywhere near the extent they did in the early 2000s. An entire generation of Canadians will essentially held financial prisoner in their own (leveraged) homes.

Very, very deflationary.

#19 young & foolish on 07.24.18 at 6:16 pm

$1750 per month from 325k …. I can like that :)

#20 Stan Brooks on 07.24.18 at 6:17 pm


As for Tim, he’s correct to expect little or no growth on a one-bedroom loft that cost three-quarters of a million

Come again here, 750 k for a fu..ng one bedroom most likely 500 sqft condo in Toronto?

Bhahahahahahhahahahahahahhahahaha.

And the prices will only correct by max 10 % from here?

Sell an run. This place is going down, big time.
750 k? Really? Is the sheeple that stipid?

LMFAO

#21 TheDood on 07.24.18 at 6:17 pm

#5 Moniker on 07.24.18 at 5:08 pm
What happens when an entire generation of Canadians buy overpriced real estate, pay it off for their working lives, save little, then attempt to retire with just a paid off home?

________________________

They retire poor and struggle financially until they die.

#22 Stan Brooks on 07.24.18 at 6:19 pm

#16 Wallflower on 07.24.18 at 5:54 pm
um…………. almost nobody reports their rental income… I am late 50s – only ever knew one person who reported it; and, I suspect he only reported some of it – he is a serial flipper and certainly does NOT report this as he sees it all as principal ownership and yet it ain’t – it has been the driver for his wealth accumulation

This is exactly what I and the french villa guy have been telling you for quite some time: Paying taxes in this place is for idiots!

#23 FreeBird on 07.24.18 at 6:27 pm

Garth covered CRA rental income rules many times. Sesrch this site or Google it to see past posts. Meantime stay cool with you until the rain…

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.thestar.com/amp/vancouver/2018/05/29/canadas-taxman-becoming-more-aggressive-with-real-estate-tax-evasion-in-hot-vancouver-and-toronto-markets.html

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/taxes/if-you-sell-real-estate-expect-the-taxman-to-take-a-close-look-in-continued-cra-crackdown/amp

#24 TurnerNation on 07.24.18 at 6:35 pm

Embrace the New World Order.
Since time began humans have been ruled over by brutal supra-national dictators. We love this. We require it. British Empire. T-rump runs USA and it is the ‘world’s policeman’ right?

A handful of tech firms have been tasked to aid in this regard. The ones we know and trust…

Problem, Solution:

https://tvo.org/article/current-affairs/why-ontario-municipalities-are-struggling-to-make-ends-meet

Google is already buying up chunks of the Bay Area and New York; its power and public appeal could easily overwhelm cash-strapped local governments even before it becomes the repository for all that citizen data

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/06/29/google-city-technology-toronto-canada-218841
In Toronto, Sidewalk sketches out a picture of a neighborhood where intelligent “pay-as-you-throw” garbage chutes separate out recyclables and charge households by waste output

#25 Stan Brooks on 07.24.18 at 6:39 pm

https://ca.yahoo.com/news/vote-still-think-toronto-safe-city-193630603.html

77 % of the population thinks Toronto is not a safe city.

And what happened to the investigation of that bombing in Mississauga? That’s right, nothing.

========================

#18 The Real Mark on 07.24.18 at 6:05 pm
“Ever? Not even in 10 or 20 years? “

Toronto RE, on individual identical units, in a long-term falling rate environment no less, took 13-14 years to recover its value in the aftermath of the 1989/1990 bubble peak. From less inflated valuations no less relatively speaking.

So 20 years of stagnation is entirely possible, especially as long-term rates will have a hard time falling to anywhere near the extent they did in the early 2000s. An entire generation of Canadians will essentially held financial prisoner in their own (leveraged) homes.

That is the role of the sheeple, to serve the masters.
It won’t be 20 years but 30 + (see Japan and their deleverage, our will be much worse.).

And just wait when the over-leveraged start leaving the country en masse leaving the debt to CMHC (oops, that’s you and me) to pay.

#26 pay your taxes on 07.24.18 at 6:54 pm

#18. The real Mark
“Very, very deflationary”

In theory perhaps, but where is this deflation? Certainly not where I shop, nor in the YVR rents, nor at the gas pumps.

And most of all, where is my $1.50 CAD/USD ?

#27 Freebird on 07.24.18 at 6:59 pm

#8 notlegaladvice
Garth, how much do I need to save before you help me invest my money? Like how do we create a well balanced diversified portfolio ?
———————
You can do what Ive done and search this site or use Google with tag words. There’s alot of great free info in past posts by Garth, Ryan, and Doug on what to have inna bal portfolio (weightings etc) except fund names but read the related comments esp on weekend and you’ll find some. From experience I learned it starts to make sense at ~$150k-200k for fee based advisors (vs adviser) like Garth and his firm. For those just starting (at any age) he’s given suggestions for smaller DIY portfolios of about 3-4 good funds as have R&D. Garth may still correct this info but it’s a start.

#28 mj on 07.24.18 at 7:15 pm

hi garth, I have a request. Could you please talk about any benefits we can get with disabilities. Thank you

#29 Stone on 07.24.18 at 7:25 pm

#6 Karl on 07.24.18 at 5:21 pm
I’m in a slightly similar situation as Tim. I own a single searched in the GTA. The other main differences are that I have an infant with the plans to add another in a couple years. Also my wife, to the most likely envy of this forum, is not house horny and has no qualms with renting. Also we have a TFSA around 60K.

My question to you Garth, what happens if I decide to follow your strategy and wind up moving three or four times (or more), seeing my friends’ properties keep soaring in value and not having the stability of one home?

It’s not an easy choice.

———

Do you need someone to hold your hand for every decision? You make a choice and then you live with the consequences of that choice. It’s easy. Sometimes, it works out to your advantage. Sometimes it doesn’t. That’s life.

I hope you don’t teach your infant to be a wet noodle like you. There are too many wet noodles around right now as it is. And quit the envy thing. It’s annoying as well.

Time to consider some intrinsic goals and values instead of extrinsic ones.

#30 dakkie on 07.24.18 at 7:25 pm

Market Rigging EXPOSED – Credit Default Swaps & The FALL Of Investor Confidence!

http://www.investmentwatchblog.com/market-rigging-exposed-credit-default-swaps-the-fall-of-investor-confidence/

#31 For those about to flop... on 07.24.18 at 7:31 pm

Pink Lemonade Stand in West Vancouver.

To say that these guys have been all over the shop price wise ,could perhaps be an understatement.

Picked up for 2.2 June 2016 in an Avenue that has previous Pink Snow cases ,other current Pink Lemonade Stands and most likely future cases as well,as a few former cases have pulled their property from the market because they know under current conditions they can’t be made whole.

In the detached market no other street/avenue has come up more in my study the last eighteen months or so.

Turner Street in Vancouver probably comes in second.

Anyway back to this case ,they were asking 1.98 and already staring a substantial loss in the face.

So what do you do when you are in panic mode and are bleeding into your glass of lemonade?

You take another 488k off of course.

How can anyone predict anything when there are people trying to sell property 60% less than original ask?

When I started my Pink Project I had to endure lots of chirps saying no one would take a loss….Wrong

The market would come back as soon as people worked around the new rules…Wrong

Only the high- end of the market would be affected….Double Wrong

The latest one that the attached market will be unaffected….Wrong

I could go on ,but no one knows what people are going to do which is part of the reason I do this.

Don’t write me and tell me what people are going to do because until you are placed in this position you just don’t know.

From what I have seen things will only get crazier ,but we will all see at the same time.

The house pumpers that say on here that say they scroll by my posts are only lying to themselves.

You think you know ,but you don’t.

Nobody knows.

You want to know so you’ll read my Pink Posts…

M44BC

1046 Mathers Ave,West Vancouver.Paid 2.2 June 2016 ass 1.99

Was asking 1.98

Now asking 1.50

1046 Mathers Ave,West Vancouver.

Jan 24:$3,888,000
Jun 20: $2,050,000
Change: – 1838000.00 -47%

2017-01-09 : $2,588,000
2017-03-09 : $2,380,000
2017-05-11 : $2,680,000
2018-06-20 : $2,050,000
2018-01-24 : $3,888,000
2018-05-31 : $1,700,000
2018-06-22 : $1,988,000

https://www.zolo.ca/west-vancouver-real-estate/1046-mathers-avenue

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAyOTlWSg==

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Feel free to make a donation.

Flop For Fox Fund…

http://www.terryfox.org/get-involved/ways-to-give/

#32 Wise Wilson on 07.24.18 at 7:33 pm

The reason rates are going up has nothing to do with the health of the economy. The Federal Reserve is simply implementing plan D – bring down the system and blame Trump – since plan A, B and C have not accomplished the goal of his impeachment. Prepare and get your financial house in order as the deep state globalists are pi$$ed.

#33 ABB on 07.24.18 at 7:39 pm

You forgot to recommend she talk to a tax attorney about filing a voluntary disclosure on the rental income!!

#34 Tony on 07.24.18 at 7:51 pm

Re: #5 Moniker on 07.24.18 at 5:08 pm

The most likely outcome is they won’t be able to retire and will work until they die of old age. Canada will follow America with a 2 to 10 year lag period of time.

#35 Fish on 07.24.18 at 7:51 pm

Price increases at wally land, I noticed today as I had to pick up a few things

#36 MF on 07.24.18 at 7:53 pm

#17 SoggyShorts on 07.24.18 at 5:57 pm

The other poster was trying to paint Canada poorly by saying it’s too hot, which is hilarious considering all Canadians do is complain about the cold winter (me included). Hot temperatures are definitely not a Canada specific worry.

I’m honestly on the fence when it comes to the climate change issue. I really don’t know who to believe anymore.

1) Your link shows an increase in temperature since 1855. A lot has changed since 1855, particularly in the world of technology obviously. It’s possible that the technology being used to observe ground temperature has become more sensitive to temperature fluctuations. Actually we can assume it has.

2) 1855-2018 is 163 years. If we are to assume this is some longitudinal study of temperature changes, then the longer the time period observed the more significant the results. Even though 163 year is a long time in human years, it’s too short a time to make any conclusions for a planet.

3) I won’t get into taxes and economics, but anecdotally speaking, I remember my parents complaining about the heat before we (and most homes) had air conditioning in the late 80’s. Climate change wasn’t a thing then so nobody thought anything of it.

MF

#37 Federal Serious Organized Crime lead in BC on 07.24.18 at 7:54 pm

Federal Serious Organized Crime lead in BC Supt. Henry Tso, comment on today’s story ‘Lots of work to be done’ in BC, First Nations casinos too

#38 Tony on 07.24.18 at 7:57 pm

Re: #7 pay your taxes on 07.24.18 at 5:24 pm

Many prominent American economists see the U.S housing market bottoming out around the years 2032 to 2034.

Total crap. Stop making things up. – Garth

#39 MF on 07.24.18 at 7:59 pm

#32 Wise Wilson on 07.24.18 at 7:33 pm

Umm a few holes in your conspiracy theory:

Powell was nominated by Trump. Trump campaigned that rates were too low for too long. Remember?

Low rates benefit the rich as asset prices increase (see Canadian RE). If anything, Trump’s recent campaigning for low rates to continue is a dumb move (See BoC policy).

MF

#40 Rates are going up on 07.24.18 at 8:01 pm

Rates are going up because the cycle of economics and the way to control it is what causes the boom bust cycle.

Ease monetary policy to let things get cooking and have economic expansion and tighten monetary policy to control the growth from getting out of control and clear off the bad debt.

The problem with right now is the easing in monetary policy over the past decade in unprecedented, which could cause some wild swings in rates as inflation can explode like a light switch going off at any moment.

The gov is the only one with the most up to date information, where most people figure it out months after the fact it has been released.

#41 Midnights on 07.24.18 at 8:09 pm

The Real Mark on 07.24.18 at 5:05 pm
Thanks for the response TRM. I was looking up some information and came upon that quote by,Kathryn Edin. Just found it interesting what she had to say. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kathryn_Edin
But again thanks.

#42 tbone on 07.24.18 at 8:12 pm

# 8 notlegaladvice

mawer balanced fund is a good way to start .
google it , you might like what you find.

#43 Mindy Zale on 07.24.18 at 8:14 pm

DELETED

#44 Tony on 07.24.18 at 8:19 pm

Re: #32 Wise Wilson on 07.24.18 at 7:33 pm

They got the same result as Japan when zero interest rates were implemented. Bernanke in my opinion was wrong and they should have let the big banks fail. The central bankers now know it was the wrong move and they’re trying to push rates up worldwide.

#45 Qhebec is Great on 07.24.18 at 8:19 pm

Re: #31

Boom! Looks like a definite sign that RE is rolling over in Vancouver. Holy Crap!

Thank you for the posts Mr Flop

#46 Spectacle on 07.24.18 at 8:37 pm

Just an unsolicited response to #6 Karl::

#6 Karl on 07.24.18 at 5:21 pm
I’m in a slightly similar situation as Tim. I own ( owe on one?) a single ….in the GTA. 1) :: then as you read this evenings post, You are heading way into the wrong direction financially!

2) ….I have an infant with the plans to add another in a couple years.
:: Your responsibility is now to the future of your family, your child.

My question to you Garth, what happens if I…….wind up moving three or four times (or more),
3) :: Rent from a professional corporation close to a great hood.

2) …seeing my friends’ properties keep soaring in value (please , stop the stitches. Not going to happen ever, never. It’s over re-read this evenings post) I had a discussion with THE department Head of a BC licensing and permits branch:: his perspective says, it is over for new builds. Laughed out loud, and confirmed huge factual basis for the numbers evaporating last few months.

3) ….and not having the stability of one home?
:: ever see those people commuting 3-5 or more hours , day after agonizing day, of their life, because they bought wrong place, wrong time, wrong financial choice? Way easier to rent, and then decide to Move!

Ps:: in al in certify, did you even read tonight’s blog post by The right Honorable Garth Turner. Past Finance Minister of Canada, and successful real estate developer/business builder. Yesterday was good too, almost get a tatto of it, that good!

It’s not an easy choice. Read today’s blog post:: it is easy, and easier than most other options.

Peace out my friends

#47 Fish on 07.24.18 at 8:51 pm

@ flop

Where any forced to sell? Like devorce

#48 Leo Trollstoy on 07.24.18 at 9:09 pm

Timothy has created $400k in equity because Toronto real estate prices peaked in 2017 for SFH but hasn’t peaked for condos yet

#49 Leo Trollstoy on 07.24.18 at 9:11 pm

#3 The Real Fake News on 07.24.18 at 5:05 pm

so sorry crissy!

#50 Leo Trollstoy on 07.24.18 at 9:15 pm

#3 sorry crissy I agree w gartho that RE prices peaked in 2017

Sure, the usual shameless pumpers (Royal LePage and Re/Max) are still at it, telling people the bottom is in and that there’s never been a better time to buy (like they suggested last spring when prices peaked).
https://www.greaterfool.ca/2018/07/10/trapped/

crissy wrong about RE, deflation, gold, and C$/US$… anything else? Lololol

#51 Spectacle on 07.24.18 at 9:16 pm

#31 Those about to Flop…

You want to know so you’ll read my Pink Posts…

M44BC

1046 Mathers Ave,West Vancouver.Paid 2.2 June 2016 ass 1.99

Was asking 1.98

Now asking 1.50

1046 Mathers Ave,West Vancouver.

Jan 24:$3,888,000
Jun 20: $2,050,000
Change: – 1838000.00 -47%

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~||||||||~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Flopper…Just WoW ! Just a change, not even sold yet….Down 47% in 2018

#52 Leo Trollstoy on 07.24.18 at 9:18 pm

#26 pay your taxes on 07.24.18 at 6:54 pm

And most of all, where is my $1.50 CAD/USD ?

in her mind

now u know why crissy is poor ;)

#53 ImGonnaBeSick on 07.24.18 at 9:22 pm

Does anyone have any idea why we’re not allowed to sell naked puts within registered accounts? I can understand not allowing naked calls, but naked puts are a legitimate, effective and, I would argue, conservative income strategy… We can sell covered calls… Mr. T, as an institutional investor, are you able to do this in clients’ registered accounts?

#54 Reality is stark on 07.24.18 at 9:24 pm

What part of he makes $100,000 and she has her own place did I miss?
You already have the ultimate life. It doesn’t get any better. Do not change a thing!
If you have to have real estate buy a dump, gut it, and renovate it on the side. Do the work yourself, it’s not that tough. You’ll gain some additional valuable skills.
You will thank me when you are 50 and worth a couple million as your friends are getting divorced.
No charge for the advice.

#55 yorkville renter on 07.24.18 at 9:29 pm

#32 The Federal Reserve is simply implementing plan D – bring down the system and blame Trump – since plan A, B and C have not accomplished the goal of his impeachment. Prepare and get your financial house in order as the deep state globalists are pi$$ed

Dude… dude…

You want to blame a shadowy organization that only recently became a “thing” instead of the moron who’s implementing tariffs en masse that hasn’t happened since the great depression?

I imagine you’re one of the supporters DJT wouldn’t lose if he shot someone on 5th avenue…

#56 Wrk.dover on 07.24.18 at 9:56 pm

Out front, I have a carriage house for my occasional guests and three of the cars I hoard. 450 sq ft of living space in part of the top. Assessed $21,000, taxes $340/yr. Full Replacement Insurance costs the same. 125′ frontage 200′ feet deep. Canada’s coast line is across the road. Better climate than GTA.

I have to climb up on the roof in a few years to nail $1000 in fresh shingles to it. Building is 20 now years old. Replaced two windows and a faucet so far.

Tonight’s couple has $1,200,000 worth of real estate!

$700,000 in equity.

Wow! Good for them?

#57 Wrk.dover on 07.24.18 at 9:59 pm

By the way Garth, NS TPP is 60% commutable to spouse upon death. I think all NS civil pensions roll that way.

#58 Smoking Man on 07.24.18 at 10:19 pm

T2 and Butts have been dead quite on twitter

It’s looking more and more like an ISIS-inspired murder rampage on the Danforth by a deranged lunatic.

The outrageous audacity of Canadian MSM, local govt doubling down, in fact conspiring to make the killer, and his family look like victims. Makes me want to puke.

The Toronto Sun is only real source news on this. Everyone else can not be trusted.

How do they expect to deal with a problem when you pretend it doesn’t exist.

I totally understand everyone not wanting to cause an uproar and have a bunch of rednecks blaming and taking revenge on the entire Islamic community who 99.9% are peaceful nice people. Surly that would only lead to more of these attacks. Radicalized more idiots on the fringe.

But in a coordinated attempt to sweap the real motive under the rug is an insult to all the victims and the moderate muslums who want this ISIS crap kicked out of their communities forever.

Identity politics is pure evil..Trudeau will pay a heavy price next year for this.

Dr Smoking Man
Phd Herdonomics

#59 Karl on 07.24.18 at 10:41 pm

#46 Spectacle

“Rent from a professional corporation…” What does that mean?

#29 Stone

You need to relax before you burst a blood vessel. I never said anything about not making a choice, all I said was that it’s a difficult one in my opinion. If it wouldn’t be for you, then congratulations.

As for the “envy” thing, I only wrote that because a lot of people on here and in Garth’s posts complain about the house horniness of their wives; it was a half joke. Again, eat a snickers or something.

#60 For those about to flop... on 07.24.18 at 10:46 pm

Less than assessed.

As if I don’t have enough going on, let’s add another branch to the Pink Tree.

I will call these posts ‘ Less than assessed’ and I know a lot of people watch the assessment number and sale price and so I will start off with these two.

1491 Nelson Avenue,West Vancouver.

Assessment 2.70

Sold recently for 1.80

33% less than assessed.

I know what you’re gonna say,that’s only happening on the higher end.

Nope,look what happened to this house in Vancouver.

Could have been an entrant in my Race to a million posts.

These people had room to maneuver and cashed in,but missed the top and left some money on the table,overall most likely still pretty happy.

The class of 2016/2017 has no such luxury…

M44BC

344 E 50th Avenue ,Vancouver

Assessment 1.54

Sold recently for 1.10

28.5% less than assessed.

#61 MDQ on 07.24.18 at 10:50 pm

Its really interesting to read these stories, thanks Garth for sharing them.

Most of these stories have to have one thing in common, lots of real estate; no money. No wonder everyone is doing the same thing, its the only way to make easy money! People are not even reporting their rental income as property and when they sell it is tax free as is declared as primary residence.

I believe the system is broken, imagine if I could tick a form on my T4 where I choose not to pay taxes. This is what people are doing and are getting away with it. They are not better that corrupt money coming from Asian countries, they can’t complain about people not paying their fair share.

I don’t agree w/ Garth statement about things flattening out, slowly. The pendulum rarely does a complete stop in the middle, it always swings to the opposite side.

#62 Oft deleted much maligned stock.picker on 07.24.18 at 10:51 pm

DELETED

#63 SmarterSquirrel on 07.24.18 at 11:04 pm

Garth,

Of the people you hear from, how many are more concerned with figuring out how to buy real estate to live in vs. those more concerned with putting together a financial plan that ensures they have money to live on throughout their retirement ’til death do them part.

I would hope with your blog being around for so long, people are starting to finally get that the real concern they should have is having cash flow to sustain an enjoyable quality of life for as long as they are alive.

Thanks for your blog.

SmarterSquirrel

#64 SoggyShorts on 07.24.18 at 11:07 pm

#36 MF on 07.24.18 at 7:53 pm
#17 SoggyShorts on 07.24.18 at 5:57 pm

I’m honestly on the fence when it comes to the climate change issue. I really don’t know who to believe anymore.

***************************
When in doubt with a matter of science, I go with the 97% of scientists that have done peer reviewed studies.

For me even the most basic explanation makes sense:
Since the start of the industrial revolution we’ve cut down a bunch of trees, and pumped loads of crap into the air. To think that would have an impact on the planet doesn’t seem like a stretch.

2 minute explanation:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=160&v=ztWHqUFJRTs

#65 WUL on 07.24.18 at 11:12 pm

#60 For those about to flop… on 07.24.18 at 10:46 pm

Less than assessed.

floppyfloppyfloppy…

I would caution against ascribing too much significance to municipal assessments. They are not appraisals unless a drive by, a postal code and lot coverage from the real property reports on file with the suggests a real measure of market value.

No one from the City of Calgary has ever been inside my house. There could be removal of structural support walls, all copper wiring, all plumbing fixtures and the walls could be plastered with posters of the Goolong Cats for all they know. And the ants I am currently fighting with. In other words, the structure could be worth zilch (in Canadian dollars!)

Yes it is one indicator but it is the last indicator I would base a decision on when arriving at a purchase price I would pay or try to sell for.

Cheers mate and keep on truckin,

WUL

#66 The Real Mark on 07.24.18 at 11:15 pm

“#48 Leo Trollstoy on 07.24.18 at 9:09 pm
Timothy has created $400k in equity “

Bzzt, wrong! There’s two problems with such claim. First, he probably brought a down-payment to the table. “A few years” is rather vague — could be a decade, ie: RE returns were pretty vigorous from the mid 2000s until the 2013 plateau in Toronto condos. And there might have been paid-in equity. I was in no position to attack the $400k equity, which may be based on an inappropriate extrapolation of average selling prices, and accordingly, explicitly excluded it.

Anyways, that wasn’t the major defect I identified with the statement. The major defect was not considering a mortgage to be debt. Unfortunately Realtors and mortgage brokers have become de facto trusted financial professionals, and have largely succeeded in brainwashing the home-buying public into thinking that mortgages aren’t debt. A pretty sad state of affairs indeed.

#67 NEVER GIVE UP on 07.24.18 at 11:41 pm

BC Blocks ride sharing and hands out $400,000,000.00 in licences to friends.
No you did not read that wrong. thats 400 million dollars.
That’s 500 licences at $800,000.00 each in 2016 reported dollars.

This is what I would do if I was in a corrupt government like the NDP has decided to become, like their predecessors the Liberals.

There is too much under the table money here to say no to. Here is how I would think if I were a corrupt politician with a black heart.

There is Brown bags of cash money that the Taxi industry is known for because they deal mostly in Cash.

This money is easily distributed to key politicians who are my friends, in under, and over the table campaign contributions to win seats.

Maybe we will take home a few bags of cash for some nice holidays later on.

BTW the taxi industry in BC is very , very active in politics.

Me and my corrupt politician cronies wholeheartedly support this Oligopoly of deceit. It helps us win elections!

Who cares if a few hundred more British Columbians are killed in Drunk Driving incidents because of the lousy and expensive taxi service. Really who is going to attach their deaths to our corruption?

I try not to think of all the British Columbians harmed by their loss of precious time by our restricted licences that allow the high taxi rates that make drunks and everyone else take their cars.

I’m good with that… I got a car!

https://vancouversun.com/opinion/op-ed/opinion-an-economics-lesson-on-ride-hailing-in-british-columbia

#68 Put freedom first on 07.24.18 at 11:44 pm

To Karl #6
I’m in a slightly similar situation as Tim. I own a single searched in the GTA. The other main differences are that I have an infant with the plans to add another in a couple years. Also my wife, to the most likely envy of this forum, is not house horny and has no qualms with renting. Also we have a TFSA around 60K.

My question to you Garth, what happens if I decide to follow your strategy and wind up moving three or four times (or more), seeing my friends’ properties keep soaring in value and not having the stability of one home?

It’s not an easy choice.

The choice is to choose to be yourself, not to be like your friends. You can value and support your friends for who they are instead of placing value on their properties. Property is just property, owning it is boring for the most part. You can appreciate all forms of property without owning and getting locked into one address. Instead, travel, enjoy your time as a renter. Instead of spending your time working on or around a property, as a renter you have time to explore parks, all areas of a city, get out of town …
Stability of a home = drudgery. Spontaneity of renting is a different way of living. Who know’s, maybe your friends envy your freedom.

#69 Dolce Vita on 07.24.18 at 11:45 pm

You and the GF have debt and a condo each.

GF lessens her financial risk by 1/3 (she wants to pay you $1,000/mo rent vs. her current $1,550/mo condo expense).

You increase your financial risk 2X by incurring more debt and decreasing your monthly cash flow ($350K mortgage vs. $800K mortgage difference @ 3%, 25 yr amort. = $2,130/mo…that $1,000/mo from GF will offset just half of what your monthly costs will increase by).

She incurs no more debt, increases her monthly cash flow while keeping her asset.

You in essence: are planning to do the opposite.

Are you OUT OF YOUR MIND?

Is love THAT BLIND?

Great deal for the GF whilst you get taken all the way to the cleaners.

Listen to Garth.

#70 Yorkville Renter on 07.25.18 at 12:06 am

#58 – why glorify ISIS? dude was clearly deranged…
at this point, why does motive matter? how does it ‘help’?

#71 georgist on 07.25.18 at 12:35 am

This guy is stupid yet he’s been handed hundreds of thousands in profit via government policy.

That is the rentier economy. Shifting value from wealth creators to lazy rentiers.

#72 Smoking Man on 07.25.18 at 12:51 am

While the Toronto Star spins the Danforth killers motivation to toxic masculinity. And little boys wanting to grow up to be cowboys. Save damsels in distress.

The usa press has another opinion. Fake news even sees it.

https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/faisal-hussain-toronto-shooting-rampage-new-details-emerge-about-gunman-2018-07-24/?__twitter_impression=true

#73 Smoking Man on 07.25.18 at 1:08 am

DELETED

#74 jane24 on 07.25.18 at 2:09 am

The problem with one bed condos is that they are never a long term home and always a lousy investment to rent out. Always stretch to a townhouse or semi. These can be longer term houses and hold their value better. Advice good today and every previous decade that I have been alive and I am in my 60’s and an old RE agent.

Better yet with buying and selling costs so high always buy a house you can build onto for that bigger kitchen and extra bedroom. Think about it. If it costs you $60,000 in fees to go in and out then you can build an extension for that money.

Strange how in those 60 pus years the beaches have always been the trendy place. King St has been trendy this last decade and Queen St the decade before but always always the TO Beaches have been and are trendy. Crazy really for rotting timber houses with termites on a polluted beach.

#75 Stone on 07.25.18 at 5:31 am

#59 Karl on 07.24.18 at 10:41 pm
#46 Spectacle

“Rent from a professional corporation…” What does that mean?

#29 Stone

You need to relax before you burst a blood vessel. I never said anything about not making a choice, all I said was that it’s a difficult one in my opinion. If it wouldn’t be for you, then congratulations.

As for the “envy” thing, I only wrote that because a lot of people on here and in Garth’s posts complain about the house horniness of their wives; it was a half joke. Again, eat a snickers or something.

———

Again, not a difficult choice. As for the envy, I was not talking about your wife. I was talking about the envy you have for your friends who might one up you by holding their real estate while you sell it. It’s the “but my friends could do better than me” part I find annoying. Set your own goals in life and stop comparing yourself to others. That’s the problem with most people and why people are in so much trouble financially.

Be honest with yourself and reread your original post. It sounds petty.

#76 Karl on 07.25.18 at 6:53 am

#75 Stone

Fair enough. You have to understand that I’ve been beaten over the head with RE ownership as a must from every single corner of my life and i’ve seen those people become successful. Not just my Boomer parents, but my brother and sister as well. I’m not petty, but I am confused.

I also feel like a lot of pro renters here are single or in a relationship with no children. The family aspect makes a choice more complicated.

#68 Put Freedom First

Thanks for the note. I see your points. My main concern, as noted above to Stone, is the stability of raising a family in one home as opposed to moving around. That’s the main thing. If it was just my wife and I, I wouldn’t care as much.

#77 MF on 07.25.18 at 7:09 am

#64 SoggyShorts on 07.24.18 at 11:07 pm

I did a Master’s program in the sciences so I am familiar with the greenhouse effect thanks.

A couple things:

-There are natural sources of CO2, like volcanoes, which pump gargantuan amounts of the gas into the atmosphere. These have been operating since the dawn of time.

-The carbon cycle ensures that plant life consumes CO2 to produce glucose and grow. People often cite deforestation as a reason why CO2 levels are rising, but this is not a fixed factor. We can plant new trees of course. Plus plant can adapt and grow in very harsh environments.

-As you get further up the academic latter, and start to delve really deep in the scientific literature with a skeptical mind you will start to see that even peer reviewed published articles are often very flawed. This is even ignoring the desire to produce a result from stakeholders and researchers who are more often than not under extreme external pressure. Negative results or null hypothesis’ are often not published and discarded.

Again, I’m not a conspiracy theorists, or anti science in any way. I saw the Inconvenient Truth. I grew up hearing about acid rain and the green house effect. I just believe the jury is still out on this particular topic: man made global warming.

MF

#78 young & foolish on 07.25.18 at 7:47 am

Two current and well worn opposing memes:

1. “Paying someone else’s mortgage”

2. “The Landlord is subsidizing the tenant”

It’s like a red state / blue state divide and it seems to have no end is sight.

#79 Remembrancer on 07.25.18 at 7:54 am

#74 jane24 on 07.25.18 at 2:09 am

The problem with one bed condos…

——————————————
How about the problem with condos, period, of any type, is you have thrown your lot in with a group of people in a “community” that over time is going to need more and more maintaining – especially towers with expensive complex mechanicals, underground garages which leak since the day the place opened, and with condo boards that tend to attract people with time on their hands, little or no actual management experience and/or personal axes to grind.

Great to rent someone else’s though…

#80 Can You Dig It? on 07.25.18 at 7:57 am

Just another “analyst” making 100k salary at Toronto Hydro while in private sector would make 55k.

Funny isn’t it how overpaid these guys are?

#81 SimplyPut7 on 07.25.18 at 8:20 am

#20 Stan Brooks on 07.24.18 at 6:17 pm

A lot of speculators in the condo market have lost their mind, in a similar way they did in the detached housing market in late 2016 early 2017.

Considering condo sales are down double digits, condo inventory is up and prices for 500 sqft concrete boxes with maintenance fees that go north of $500 a month, cost as much as a large resale detached house located just outside the Toronto borderlines, I thought prices would have fallen more by now.

I think the speculators are going for broke. In the detached and townhouse market, they are too afraid to sell and take the loss on their investment homes. In the condo market, they can’t see the party is over and they should bail before the market turns on them like it did for the detached housing market.

There are lots of vacant homes (condos, detached homes, townhouses) all over the GTA, maybe they will start to unload them once they realize Doug Ford isn’t going to save them from their financial mess.

#82 Stan Brooks on 07.25.18 at 8:23 am

#80 Can You Dig It? on 07.25.18 at 7:57 am
Just another “analyst” making 100k salary at Toronto Hydro while in private sector would make 55k.

Funny isn’t it how overpaid these guys are?

==========================

Paid by your electricity bill/almost tripped in the last 5-6 years, there are people north of GTA paying $ 1250 CAD per month on delivery of $ 250 CAD electricity (used for heating).

There are too many parasites, lairs, extortionists in this place – real estate, governments of all type and sort, oligopolies and monopolies everywhere and no intelligent workers.

Who in their right mind intelligent enough would live here to be screwed by really low intelligence (to degree of being offensive) of the french villa guy, T2 and the butts guy. Thinking about it, seriously? These are the our leaders?

Pay 40-50 % in income taxes, a house costing 20 years your net income, ever increasing property taxes, for the privilege to live in a glass condo or cardboard particle house? Never to retire. Your kids will never ever find a good paying job or afford a house.
Really? Is the sheeple that stupid?

These that are left surely are that stupid but the ability of a stupid group of individuals to survive and thrive in today’s world is very limited.

Do you want your kids to be part of that circus?

#83 Stan Brooks on 07.25.18 at 8:41 am

The innocence of this place/GTA, Toronto is long gone.

Don’t live with memories, the real world is much, much different.

Suddenly New York starts looking appealing.
It seems we are going the Chicago/Detroit way.
Just wait for the fallout from the big credit orgy and you will see how all the pretended politeness driven by the ‘feeling rich’ effect from housing quickly disappears, to be replaced by hostility and rudeness.

No? Just wait.

I foresee long list of unfortunate events, but hey, T2 tweets will make us strong and united again.

It bugs me big time, the gullibility and complacency of the sheeple ruled by really stupid politicians,

Killing? They praise the police.
Mass murder? They praise the police and the firefighters, ambulance responses.
With ‘stay strong, we are with you/behind you’ messages.
All inconvenient facts are quickly forgotten.

Remind me again, what happened with that Mississauga bombings?

Absolutely mind-blowing brainwashing.
Most of the people can’t wipe their behind without supervision/approval.

Pretend, lie, hope people will forget, rinse and repeat.
Hey, it seems to work so why not continue doing it?
We are pushing hard the boundaries of stupidity, boldly jumping off the cliff without thinking.

There will be consequences.

#84 James on 07.25.18 at 9:14 am

#72 Smoking Man on 07.25.18 at 12:51 am
While the Toronto Star spins the Danforth killers motivation to toxic masculinity. And little boys wanting to grow up to be cowboys. Save damsels in distress.
The usa press has another opinion. Fake news even sees it.
https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/faisal-hussain-toronto-shooting-rampage-new-details-emerge-about-gunman-2018-07-24/?__twitter_impression=true

__________________________________________
You are an idiot old man, did you even watch the CBS news report you attached? At no point did it state anything other than the facts. There was no difference between Canadian news reporting of it and the CBS report. You’re deranged old man, stop looking for monsters under your bed old man! Stick to the facts! When the facts prove he was a proponent of a terrorist group then come back. Now go have a nap after you have downed a bottle of Jack Daniels. BTW Did you eat any lead paint chips when you were younger?

#85 Tater on 07.25.18 at 9:31 am

#70 Yorkville Renter on 07.25.18 at 12:06 am
#58 – why glorify ISIS? dude was clearly deranged…
at this point, why does motive matter? how does it ‘help’?
——————————————————————–
Motive is extremely important. If this was ISIS inspired (I personally doubt it) the police and intelligence agencies need to be looking at his friends and family to see where those threads go.

If it was just a mentally disturbed guy it bolsters the argument for better mental health care and better background checks.

#86 James on 07.25.18 at 9:58 am

#77 MF on 07.25.18 at 7:09 am
#64 SoggyShorts on 07.24.18 at 11:07 pm
I did a Master’s program in the sciences so I am familiar with the greenhouse effect thanks.
A couple things:
-There are natural sources of CO2, like volcanoes, which pump gargantuan amounts of the gas into the atmosphere. These have been operating since the dawn of time.
-The carbon cycle ensures that plant life consumes CO2 to produce glucose and grow. People often cite deforestation as a reason why CO2 levels are rising, but this is not a fixed factor. We can plant new trees of course. Plus plant can adapt and grow in very harsh environments.
-As you get further up the academic latter, and start to delve really deep in the scientific literature with a skeptical mind you will start to see that even peer reviewed published articles are often very flawed. This is even ignoring the desire to produce a result from stakeholders and researchers who are more often than not under extreme external pressure. Negative results or null hypothesis’ are often not published and discarded.
Again, I’m not a conspiracy theorists, or anti science in any way. I saw the Inconvenient Truth. I grew up hearing about acid rain and the green house effect. I just believe the jury is still out on this particular topic: man made global warming.
MF
____________________________________________
I have to say I would agree with both sides on this. Natural cyclic patterns of high CO2 have occurred for millennia, turning the planet into an overheated greenhouse literally. As well my opinion is that scientist and for that matter any intelligent person deal with factual evidence based on a SOP that dictates you use the scientific method. A proven method of research in where an issue is identified, appropriate data is gathered, a hypothesis is formulated from the gathered data, and then the hypothesis is empirically tested. Scientists know that the facts can speak for themselves however some scientists can be appropriated for either side disseminating essentially fake news if I could use the term. Unfortunately I believe that the effect from man-made CO2 is real but rather it is a moderate amount compared to natural based CO2. The uncontrolled use of coal by Asian countries and surprisingly the USA is contributing to the issue. The main problem is that CO2 distribution can be accumulative over time so we may not see the effect but our children and grandchildren may have to endure the brunt of the environmental destruction we create today. You have to ask yourself the question do we need energy? Do we need safe clean energy? Until we can master clean energy we need to be cognizant of the fact that almost all of our energy creates carbon based greenhouse gases. We need to minimize the effect of those gases. Who in their right mind believes that coal is the answer to our energy needs? Would you want to live next to a coal generating station for your entire life?

https://qz.com/477784/which-countries-in-the-world-use-the-most-coal-charted/

https://today.tamu.edu/2016/11/14/researchers-solve-mystery-of-historic-1952-london-fog-and-current-chinese-haze/

#87 Ubul on 07.25.18 at 10:00 am

#70 Yorkville Renter on 07.25.18 at 12:06 am
#58 – why glorify ISIS? dude was clearly deranged…
at this point, why does motive matter? how does it ‘help’?

How does truth help?

By the way:
http://www.france24.com/en/20180725-islamic-state-group-claims-responsibility-toronto-shooting-canada-terrorism

#88 For those about to flop... on 07.25.18 at 10:01 am

11:12 pm
#60 For those about to flop… on 07.24.18 at 10:46 pm

Less than assessed.

floppyfloppyfloppy…

I would caution against ascribing too much significance to municipal assessments. They are not appraisals unless a drive by, a postal code and lot coverage from the real property reports on file with the suggests a real measure of market value.

No one from the City of Calgary has ever been inside my house. There could be removal of structural support walls, all copper wiring, all plumbing fixtures and the walls could be plastered with posters of the Goolong Cats for all they know. And the ants I am currently fighting with. In other words, the structure could be worth zilch (in Canadian dollars!)

Yes it is one indicator but it is the last indicator I would base a decision on when arriving at a purchase price I would pay or try to sell for.

Cheers mate and keep on truckin,

WUL

////////////////

Hey WULLY, I don’t disagree, I just came across a couple of low ones in a row and thought maybe I should be doing something with these as I know some posters on here watch the gap in between the two numbers.

CONFIRMED PINK SNOW is still the best.

What they paid for it, and what they sold it for.

Pink Lemonade Stand shows what might be coming down to pipeline to give posters roughly a 3-4 month jump over the average Joe.

Put the two together and by the time everything is official and people on here have a 9 month jump on the guy at work who thinks that real estate only goes up.

I just try to show what is happening and what is possible.

People value the assessment number here,but seemingly only when they paid over that amount.

The two cases I showed cashed in way below that amount because they could and good for them.

My post are open to interpretation, I’ll just keep banging them up and no one can say that at least there was no information out there as to what was happening on the softer side of the market.

My post are not perfect but an effort is being made…

M44BC

#89 James on 07.25.18 at 10:01 am

Now here is some irony. MAGA but really MADE IN CHINA ASSHOLE “MICA”

http://thehill.com/policy/international/398733-keep-america-great-flags-made-in-china-could-be-hit-by-trump-tariffs

#90 Fish on 07.25.18 at 10:19 am

@#20 Stan Brooks on 07.24.18 at 6:17 pm

As for Tim, he’s correct to expect little or no growth on a one-bedroom loft that cost three-quarters of a million

Come again here, 750 k for a fu..ng one bedroom most likely 500 sqft condo in Toronto?

Bhahahahahahhahahahahahahhahahaha.

And the prices will only correct by max 10 % from here?

Sell an run. This place is going down, big time.
750 k? Really? Is the sheeple that stipid?

LMFAO

*********

Perhaps he had an emergency, like in his family?

Perhaps it’s all about LOCATION –

perhaps it’s about job security?

Perhaps it’s about finding a new friend?

#91 Tony on 07.25.18 at 10:29 am

Re: #48 Leo Trollstoy on 07.24.18 at 9:09 pm

In Alberta the condo market went down first (although it really has been falling since 2007). It took a second leg downward early in 2015. The single detached housing market took another two years to finally break and follow the condo market downward. That happened in 2017. Point is both markets went down.

#92 Smoking Man on 07.25.18 at 10:41 am

Butts finally blocks Smoking Man on twitter. I threw everything at the bugger. Yet no block. Even called him a pu$$y once. Twiiter blocked me for 24 hours and shadow band the account. My new account with 50 followers gets hundreds of the tweets a post. Smoking Man account with 2500 followers gets zero.

The tweet that made him hit the block button.
“Hey man. Canadian trees eat 10 times the CO2 Canada generates. Ask the UN for a check, no need for Carbon Tax.”

New account @William B Davis. Still antagonizing the little shit. Twitter roomers say this son of a coal miner is worth 20 million.
Not bad. No gambling required . just chill with Soros and Gore.

It’s not for me. Bighting my nails and big forex bets is how I roll.

#93 Leo Trollstoy on 07.25.18 at 10:57 am

#66 The Real Fake News on 07.24.18 at 11:15 pm

“Sure, the usual shameless pumpers (Royal LePage and Re/Max) are still at it, telling people the bottom is in and that there’s never been a better time to buy (like they suggested last spring when prices peaked).
https://www.greaterfool.ca/2018/07/10/trapped/

dont respond if u wrong crissy

u welcome

#94 Zapstrap on 07.25.18 at 11:08 am

#31 For those about to flop… on 07.24.18 at 7:31 pm
Don’t write me and tell me what people are going to do because until you are placed in this position you just don’t know.

Nobody knows where the hobo goes
Nobody knows where he get’s his clothes

#95 Duke on 07.25.18 at 11:08 am

#64 SoggyShorts on 07.24.18 at 11:07 pm
#36 MF on 07.24.18 at 7:53 pm
#17 SoggyShorts on 07.24.18 at 5:57 pm

I’m honestly on the fence when it comes to the climate change issue. I really don’t know who to believe anymore.
***************************
When in doubt with a matter of science, I go with the 97% of scientists that have done peer reviewed studies.

For me even the most basic explanation makes sense:
Since the start of the industrial revolution we’ve cut down a bunch of trees, and pumped loads of crap into the air. To think that would have an impact on the planet doesn’t seem like a stretch.

2 minute explanation:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=160&v=ztWHqUFJRTs

===================

The largest part of Canada’s climate change is done by oil sands development. We have to stop it before it is too late. Oh, it is too late already.

#96 Mattl on 07.25.18 at 11:35 am

I know this won’t be popular here but I see a good opportunity to move up. Condo’s are up and selling reasonably well. SFH’s are down 30% – at least that’s what this blog has been telling me. And money is still cheap.

Seems like a great time to sell the two condo’s, put 400 down on a SFH in a desirable area, and put 300 or so into investments and buckle down. This guy has a DB pension, these are the exact types of people that should go big on RE. Buying a house would not = a one asset retirement strategy, his pension will be worth 7 figures when he retires. That 300K will triple over the next 20 years. And his home will go up, and down, but should at least beat inflation over the next 20 years. And he gets to live in a great area, one of the best places in a great city. Net result in 25 years, a 2MM home paid for, 1MM+ in liquid and 80K a year for life from the pension.

Yes he will have to mow the lawn, paint, do a roof every 25 years, pay property taxes. I know that seems like an incredible sacrifice to many here but getting into a SFH in a great spot in the city, prices down, with basically free money from the equity in their condo’s seems like the right play to me.

#97 IHCTD9 on 07.25.18 at 11:50 am

#77 MF on 07.25.18 at 7:09 am
____

Part of my tax reduction plan calls for a gasifier that produces gas from wood to run a vehicle and other things.

The funny thing is, while I’m not paying for fuel, or the carbon tax either – the wood powered vehicle is in fact carbon neutral.

The trees absorb carbon to grow for 100+ years. If it falls over dead someday, it will rot and thereby release the carbon back into the air/eco system. If I take the dead tree and burn it – same thing happens – all the carbon the tree absorbed during its life is then released back into the system.

In fact, if I take the spent ash and char out of the waste pan of the gasifier and bury it in my garden to feed the veggies – I have then released back into the system only what C02 the tree took out in the first place, and then I buried a portion of it (sequestering it).

Fertilizing my garden with the spent char and ash then reduces the carbon in the system from what it was when the dead tree was laying there in the forest. If I buried every full pan of ash and char, I would then be driving a carbon Negative vehicle.

I’m going to have to send T2 a bill for my services…

#98 Oft deleted much maligned stock.picker on 07.25.18 at 11:52 am

Although it was deleted….the story I reported that hadn’t been reported on regarding a panic of Chinese capital getting dumped is now front page news. The crashing markets are forcing flagrant laundered ‘investments” will see thousands of high end houses flooding the market.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-real-estate-investors-retreat-from-u-s-as-political-pressure-mounts-1532437934

I think hiding behind racism to keep this news off the headlines is going to cost buyers currently shopping a devastating financial blow…..all due to some people trying to be politically correct for the sake of it…..but not really doing thier job as a commentator.

The comment was deleted for your disgraceful characterization of the the prime minister. Disagree with him if you wish, but cut the childish tone. – Garth

#99 James on 07.25.18 at 12:45 pm

#92 Smoking Man on 07.25.18 at 10:41 am
Butts finally blocks Smoking Man on twitter. I threw everything at the bugger. Yet no block. Even called him a pu$$y once. Twiiter blocked me for 24 hours and shadow band the account. My new account with 50 followers gets hundreds of the tweets a post. Smoking Man account with 2500 followers gets zero.
The tweet that made him hit the block button.
“Hey man. Canadian trees eat 10 times the CO2 Canada generates. Ask the UN for a check, no need for Carbon Tax.”
New account @William B Davis. Still antagonizing the little shit. Twitter roomers say this son of a coal miner is worth 20 million.
Not bad. No gambling required . just chill with Soros and Gore.
It’s not for me. Bighting my nails and big forex bets is how I roll.
____________________________________________
Well after seeing you do your thing on twitter and Periscope no wonder they blocked you old man. Jesus old man peeing in the pool and you appear quite pugnacious about it with your devilish grin. God damn hold old you? Perhaps it’s time for waterproof Depends. William B Davis is probably going to be pissed at some point after learning you purloined his moniker on twitter.

#100 James on 07.25.18 at 12:59 pm

It’s coming, down boy, down boy good Yuan, good Yuan.
This is how the Chinese will win the tariff battle with the USA. Americans love inexpensive stuff. A strong US dollar just can not cut it on the world stage producing cheap stuff.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-targets-economy-not-trump-with-weaker-yuan-1532511994?mod=nwsrl_heard_on_the_street&cx_refModule=nwsrl

#101 IHCTD9 on 07.25.18 at 1:32 pm

Tim, let’s do some quicky math.

You make about 100K gross, so you net about 72K after taxes and deductions, so about 6000.00/month

A crap hole 1.2 Mil beaches shack would become an 850K mortgage after you liquidate your condo and pay off the mortgage on it, plus all the realistic associated costs of doing the above and buying anew. That’ll be a 1.3 million cost after 3.5-3.75% average rate over 25 years. So 4330.00/month.

Add in monthly costs:
Maintenance – 100.00
Taxes – 350.00
Insurance – 225.00
sewer/water – 150.00
Total: 825

So you’re looking at 5155.00 minimum with costs pretty much only going higher – expect nearly your entire 6000.00/month net income to be consumed within 10 years with interest rate increases and all the associated costs of owning going up – just on regular run of the mill house expenses.

Realistically, you can expect to have dumped over 1.7 Million on just basic ordinary house costs by the time it’s paid for. I’m not including heat and hydro, or required renovations.

Obviously you have to eat and have something resembling a life too, but you’re already totally broke just paying for the shack.

Which brings us to the GF…

She’s part of the grand plan right? You need her income (what does she make?), you need her 300K condo equity too. Without the GF, you are staying exactly where you are because you can’t afford to go up a notch in the RE hierarchy.

Tread carefully Mr. Tim.

She may not like, you may not like – but IHCTD9’s frontal lobe says to let that relationship sauté in a nice apt while your 400K and her 300K earn interest in a BP per GT. It’s a good time to sell those condo units right now.

Think of it this way: You can sell and invest that 700K (tax free equity), and if you rent for 2.5K,. you could also pile in the monthly balance of what you would have otherwise sunk into ownership (~2.7K/month) into a BP at maybe 5.0%.

If you did this for the same 25 years that the house would have taken to pay off, you’d have 4 Million sitting in your accounts – and that’s a lowball.

That’s a pile of money – and you didn’t have to hang drywall to get it either. Plus if the GF makes say 50-60K net, you’d have over 7K per month sloshing around after you covered the rent, and still nearly 5K after you’ve pumped your investments.

Icing on the cake: almost 2.5 Mil of the 4 is interest. 188K income per year at 5.0. Probably more than you and the GF Gross right now combined.

#102 Leo Trollstoy on 07.25.18 at 1:35 pm

Toronto tech booming

I called it

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-toronto-ranked-highest-in-tech-jobs-growth-in-canada-us/

#103 NoName on 07.25.18 at 1:35 pm

#97 IHCTD9 on 07.25.18 at 11:50 am
#77 MF on 07.25.18 at 7:09 am
____

Part of my tax reduction plan calls for a gasifier that produces gas from wood to run a vehicle and other things.

The funny thing is, while I’m not paying for fuel, or the carbon tax either – the wood powered vehicle is in fact carbon neutral.

The trees absorb carbon to grow for 100+ years. If it falls over dead someday, it will rot and thereby release the carbon back into the air/eco system. If I take the dead tree and burn it – same thing happens – all the carbon the tree absorbed during its life is then released back into the system.

In fact, if I take the spent ash and char out of the waste pan of the gasifier and bury it in my garden to feed the veggies – I have then released back into the system only what C02 the tree took out in the first place, and then I buried a portion of it (sequestering it).

Fertilizing my garden with the spent char and ash then reduces the carbon in the system from what it was when the dead tree was laying there in the forest. If I buried every full pan of ash and char, I would then be driving a carbon Negative vehicle.

I’m going to have to send T2 a bill for my services…

i am not so sure that at the end that car is carbon negative, but with little bit chemistry from left over ash you can separate calcium carbonate and CaCO3 and sell to people that get work up over global warming and help them with gastric acid, ca.carbonate help with ulcers also.

#104 Leo Trollstoy on 07.25.18 at 1:37 pm

My condos in TO keep rising in price

SFH prices peaked 2017 (sold my last SFH in 2015) but condos still hot

$800+/sqft

#105 McLovin on 07.25.18 at 2:09 pm

If you have an overwhelming desire to be a landlord, buy a REIT. There are some you can buy out there for 60 to 90 cents on the dollar (less than book), you have no mortgage, they’re managed for you, and they pay you every month at an annual rate 4 or 5 per cent (or more). No crummy tenants, no maintenance hassles. Why anyone considers a house to be an ‘investment’ is beyond me. It’s just a place to live and hang your hat.

#106 young & foolish on 07.25.18 at 2:30 pm

Sometimes it’s hard to understand how RE values could fall by more that a few percentage points in growing cities …. common sense suggests demand will act as support, even under challenging economic circumstances.

#107 IHCTD9 on 07.25.18 at 3:15 pm

#103 NoName on 07.25.18 at 1:35 pm

i am not so sure that at the end that car is carbon negative, but with little bit chemistry from left over ash you can separate calcium carbonate and CaCO3 and sell to people that get work up over global warming and help them with gastric acid, ca.carbonate help with ulcers also.
______

Not the whole vehicle obviously, but just the fueling of it would be. A regular fossil fuel vehicle will take carbon that was sequestered millions of years ago, and “re-liberate” it out of the exhaust pipe by burning gasoline refined from oil pumped from deep within the earth.

A wood powered vehicle while introducing new co2 during it’s manufacture, is way ahead of a gasoline vehicle on the tailpipe emissions front – especially if you bury the ash, char, and light/heavy condensates collected during the running of the vehicle.

Charcoal has so many uses, it’s amazing stuff. It was a cornerstone to the industrial revolution. Some people eat the stuff straight out of the retort claiming health benefits.

#108 Newcomer on 07.25.18 at 3:22 pm

#106 young & foolish on 07.25.18 at 2:30 pm
Sometimes it’s hard to understand how RE values could fall by more that a few percentage points in growing cities …. common sense suggests demand will act as support, even under challenging economic circumstances.
——

Use Google to look at house prices and population and you will soon see that they are not closely related on shorter (10 yr) timescales. Also, use Google to compare house prices in cities of similar sizes to the one you are interested in and you will again see that there is no strong correlation between city size and house prices. Common sense is great but looking at data helps too.

#109 SimplyPut7 on 07.25.18 at 3:51 pm

#83 Stan Brooks on 07.25.18 at 8:41 am

I’m more worried about being hit by a car walking down the street than acts of terror plaguing the city.

http://data.torontopolice.on.ca/pages/fatalities

#110 jess on 07.25.18 at 4:01 pm

localized view (weather )is a narrow view as is short termism
Money velocity, like wind velocity in a weather pattern,fluctuates widely and suddenly, caused by complex factors (climate) feeding back on each other.
=============================================
alarmists?
Dark Pools are trading venues that should not exist in an efficient, transparent and honest securities market. They are effectively unregulated stock
As history has demonstrated all too well, unregulated swaps dealing almost always ultimately leads to extreme economic suffering and then too often to systemic breaks in the world economy, thereby putting U.S. taxpayers, who suffer all the economic distress that recessions bring, in the position of once again being the lender of last resort to these huge U.S. institutions….”
Michael Greenberger, Too Big to Fail U.S. Banks’ Regulatory Alchemy
“‘We didn’t truly know the dangers of the market, because it was a dark market,’ says Brooksley Born, the head of an obscure federal regulatory agency — the Commodity Futures Trading Commission [CFTC] — who not only warned of the potential for economic meltdown in the late 1990s, but also tried to convince the country’s key economic powerbrokers to take actions that could have helped avert the crisis. ‘They were totally opposed to it,’ Born says. ‘That puzzled me. What was it that was in this market that had to be hidden?’…

sman don’t you think you could speak more regarding this type?

The ‘Behaviour and Culture of the Irish Retail Banks’ report found some banking executive committees display “firefighting behaviour” 10 years after the banking collapse.There is a focus on urgent and short-term issues.”This may be a remnant of a crisis-era mindset which persists because of the necessity to solve a multitude of legacy and regulatory issues,” the Central Bank said.There is a need to empower senior staff rather than have all decisions going through chief executives, it added.The Central Bank wants the law changed to give it powers to make individuals in banks accountable for their actions. Senior managers would have to set out where responsibility and decision-making lies in their bank.”

Bank bosses would have to adhere to new ‘conduct standards’ setting out what was expected of them by the regulator.

Central Bank director general financial conduct Derville Rowland said culture is set from the top down.

#111 Tony on 07.25.18 at 6:49 pm

Re: #100 James on 07.25.18 at 12:59 pm

Until the GDP figure comes out Friday out of America, then the U.S. dollar will fall off a cliff. So much for the theory about everyone buying everything before the tariffs hit. If the 10 year treasury is near 3 percent and the DXY dollar index is near 95 all the data that comes out of America is negative.

#112 Wrk.dover on 07.25.18 at 9:30 pm

edit : to stunting laws

#113 Mr Gadget on 07.25.18 at 9:43 pm

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/stock-futures-cautious-ahead-of-earnings-tariff-meeting

FROM THE ARTICLE
Trump welcomed Jean-Claude Juncker and Cecilia Malmstrom at the White House on Wednesday afternoon to discuss tariffs between the U.S. and European Union. In an unexpected announcement after the meeting, Trump announced that the U.S. and EU agreed to work toward zero tariffs and zero subsidies on non-auto industrial goods and avoid any new tariffs while talks are ongoing. Trump had threatened to slap tariffs on European car imports.
The EU also agreed to buy more U.S. soybeans, while the U.S. will work toward resolving tariffs recently imposed on European steel and aluminum.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 172.16 points, or 0.68%, to 25,414.10. The S&P 500 gained 25.67 points to close at 2,846.07. The Nasdaq Composite was up 91.47 points at 7,932.24.
—————

TDS (Trump Derangement Syndrome) is blinding people to what is going on. Better the news media should report about Stormy and that Playmate the Donald banged. There are those of us in the US who can appreciate the problems Canadians face in their ‘housing crisis”. Maybe your problem is “leadership”. It was here.

#114 Oft deleted much maligned stock.picker on 07.26.18 at 9:01 am

DELETED

#115 Bank of Canada on 07.26.18 at 2:01 pm

The problem of the 2% stress test can be solved by forcing the banks to offer 25/30 year interest rate terms as are done in the US. This improves financial stability as your payments will be fixed for the life of the loan. No need to worry about interest rates rising 2% or to do a stress test. There are ways we can solve this problem right now!