Mother’s milk

RYANBy Guest Blogger Ryan Lewenza

Larry Kudlow, Trump’s key economic advisor, and one of the more reasonable economic minds in his administration, is famous for saying “profits are the mother’s milk of stock prices”. Meaning, where profits go, generally goes the stock market.

This can be seen in the chart below which overlays the S&P 500 with the index’s earnings going back decades. This simple but important chart captures the strong relationship between stock prices and earnings over the long run. Further hitting home this point is the fact that, since the 1950s, earnings growth for the S&P 500 has averaged 7.5% annually, which is roughly the average yearly price return of the S&P 500. We can slice the data a number of ways and it all comes back to the fact that earnings drive stock prices over the long run.

So what’s happening with corporate profits?

Where Earnings Go, Stocks Go

Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments

In short, they are on fire!

Following the earnings recession of 2015-16, S&P 500 earnings have surged hitting new all-time highs in the process. S&P 500 Y/Y earnings growth has averaged 16% since 2017 with Q1/18 earnings growing at an impressive 20%, marking the strongest earnings growth rate since 2011.

This quarter analysts are projecting earnings to rise 17% Y/Y, however, given the recent historical beat rate of 4% (earnings have beaten analyst’s estimates by 4%), I see earnings growing at roughly 20% Y/Y again this quarter. This is incredible and is very supportive to stock prices.

The strong earnings growth is being driven by a combination of robust revenue growth (7-8% over the last few quarters), continued high margins, stock buybacks and a lower corporate tax rate following last year’s historic US tax reform.

Strong Earnings Growth Expected for Q2/18

Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments

A common talking point among analysts and the media is that earnings are going to peak soon and that this will be the final nail in the coffin for this bull market. This has been the most hated bull market in history with one excuse after another supporting an imminent bear market sell-off. To cite just a few: end of Fed’s QE policies, high valuations, record debt levels, Trump, trade war, Brexit, Greece, etc. We agree that earnings are of course going to peak, as nothing lasts forever, but we see this as more of a 2019 or 2020 story.

One reason I believe this trend of strong earnings can continue is because of what we are seeing with analyst’s earnings revisions. Typically, analysts start out with high expectations at the beginning of the year then revise them lower over the year. You can see this typical pattern in the chart below. This year we saw the opposite with S&P 500 earnings being revised significantly higher from US$148/share at the beginning of the year to US$159/share currently. The positive earnings revisions reflect stronger US and global growth and the much lower corporate tax rate for this year.

Typically Estimates Are Revised Lower – Not This Year!

Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments

Right now we’re getting bombarded with lots of headline risk, much of it emanating out of 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. So during these hectic periods it’s critically important to refocus on the fundamentals. The US and global economy remain strong right now and corporate profits are hitting new all-time highs. If Trump can get out of the way with his escalating trade war (and save himself), stocks should continue to gain in the second half of the year on these robust corporate profits.

Ryan Lewenza, CFA,CMT is a Partner and Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments, and a Senior Vice President, Private Client Group, of Raymond James Ltd.

79 comments ↓

#1 For those about to flop... on 07.21.18 at 11:00 am

Weekend rewind.

This week in howmuch articles…

M44BC

Find Out How Much Your Country Spends on Research & Development.

https://howmuch.net/articles/research-development-spending-by-country

The iPhone X Index: This Chart Shows How Ridiculously Long You Have to Work to Get One.

https://howmuch.net/articles/hours-work-buy-iphone

Mapping the Best (and Worst) Places for Millennials to Make a Living.

https://howmuch.net/articles/how-much-money-millennials-make-in-every-state

#2 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.21.18 at 11:06 am

Trump.
The wild card joker in any game.

#3 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 07.21.18 at 11:40 am

Interesting numbers. The TSX might be a different story.

#4 BobC on 07.21.18 at 12:20 pm

You didn’t mention Trump’s name when describing what’s driving prices only when describing what could lower them.
Trump syndrome is so obvious and easy to spot.

#5 KLNR on 07.21.18 at 12:46 pm

@#69 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.21.18 at 9:22 am
@#65-66 Dolce Vita

Ah yes….
Viva Italia.
You may not excel at fighting wars, forming stable long term govts, balancing budgets, or winning World cups but Italians certainly excel at bragging, govt corruption,olive oil, and shoes…..

___________________________

LOLOLO, great post.
Guys like dolce are the worst kind of immigrant – come live off Canada then go back to their origin backwater and complain about how bad it was/is in Canada.

#6 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 07.21.18 at 12:48 pm

#1 For those about to flop… on 07.21.18 at 11:00 am
Weekend rewind.

This week in howmuch articles…

M44BC

Find Out How Much Your Country Spends on Research & Development.

https://howmuch.net/articles/research-development-spending-by-country

The iPhone X Index: This Chart Shows How Ridiculously Long You Have to Work to Get One.

https://howmuch.net/articles/hours-work-buy-iphone

Mapping the Best (and Worst) Places for Millennials to Make a Living.

https://howmuch.net/articles/how-much-money-millennials-make-in-every-state
………………………………..
Keep up the good work Flop. It is informative and interesting. And many of us appreciate it.

#7 Ryan Lewenza on 07.21.18 at 1:23 pm

Bobc “You didn’t mention Trump’s name when describing what’s driving prices only when describing what could lower them. Trump syndrome is so obvious and easy to spot.”

The S&P 500 is up roughly 300% since 2009 and 20% since Trump was elected. You ascribe too much to President Trump and recent stock returns. But I did like his corporate tax cut which has contributed to the earnings growth and some of 20% gains since he was elected. – Ryan L

#8 Catalyst on 07.21.18 at 1:24 pm

I hear alot of people calling for 19/20 recession when QE falls off and trade wars start to bite. Given how hard it is to time the market, why not just go defensive now. Even if you miss the 5% up, you miss the 15% down.

#9 For those about to flop... on 07.21.18 at 1:49 pm

Pink Lemonade Stand in Vancouver.

People looking for an explosive rebound in prices on the Westside will most likely be disappointed for the foreseeable future ,as these guys were no more ambitious as to aim for a Pink Draw right out of the gate.

Picked up for 2.6 in September 2017,the aim was to probably go for an 8 second ride and get out with a big payday.

Now they are hanging on in a deteriorating market.

Go get ’em cowboy…

M44BC

3996 w 23rd ave,Vancouver. Paid 2.68 September 2017 ass 2.82 asking 2.86

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/3996-west-23rd-avenue

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAwMEhGTQ==

#10 JSS on 07.21.18 at 2:00 pm

Hi Ryan, good news story for the S&P500, but can you please provide your insight towards the TSX. Where is it headed
Thanks

#11 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.21.18 at 2:06 pm

@#74 Il Duce Vita
“…..esp. as I am retired”
+++++
Well as previously stated.
Enjoy the Canadian taxpayer funded CPP and OAS cheques.
As for your minority govt “leader” stopping the Lampedusa “flow” ….good luck with that.
Enjoy the “good life” while it lasts.
The Mediterranean “moat” isn’t quite as effective as the good old Atlantic and Pacific for keeping out those pesky economic refugees and terrorists.

When Italy leaves the EU (or is kicked out) thats when the lira will really “show its true self”.

Endless ineffective minority govts with former clowns as their leaders, Dreadful budget deficts, overwhelming national debt, unaffordable healthcare, failing banks, ….

https://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/debtclock/italy

Mamma mia !

Not to worry…..that Canadian govt stipend will be appreciated when you need suitcases of lira to buy some bread……………..
And when you ask Canada for more we’ll answer “no” because…….thats amore!

#12 Westcdn on 07.21.18 at 2:16 pm

I am fascinated by the proposal to use my RSP to purchase a commercial property as suggested by GT a few days ago. I never thought the government would allow me to deduct the interest portion of my RSP loan as an allowable deduction against the property income. Believe me when I say I am looking hard.

Oh, looking at the latest Trump rants against US Fed interest rate increases, I expect the US Fed to curtail the reduction of their balance sheet. It should reduce pressure of lowering US bond prices yet allow them keep raising rates to save face. Yield inversion speaks to smart money betting on long term deflation. Sadly, I am missing an economic sugar high with my income stocks these days. Did I get it wrong? Who knows but I will keep trying to hit singles and score later.

#13 Last of the Boomers on 07.21.18 at 2:18 pm

Ryan,

If corporate earnings are so great and the stock market is suppose to follow then why is my balanced and diversified portfolio at slightly less than 0% gain after fees so far this year and down a full percentage point after fees from the Jan 25th, 2018 high. When is this gain suppose to materialize, or are we really balanced?

#14 Ryan Lewenza on 07.21.18 at 2:33 pm

Catalyst “I hear alot of people calling for 19/20 recession when QE falls off and trade wars start to bite. Given how hard it is to time the market, why not just go defensive now. Even if you miss the 5% up, you miss the 15% down.”

A few points. First people have been saying a bear market is just around the corner for years. Those doom and gloomers have missed one of the best bull markets in history. Second, the fundamentals and technical trends remain bullish so why fight the trend. Third, when our indicators and technicals turn negative then we’ll look to reduce our equity exposure and risk. – Ryan L

#15 Stone on 07.21.18 at 2:50 pm

#8 Catalyst on 07.21.18 at 1:24 pm
I hear alot of people calling for 19/20 recession when QE falls off and trade wars start to bite. Given how hard it is to time the market, why not just go defensive now. Even if you miss the 5% up, you miss the 15% down.

———-

Isn’t that what adding a little alpha is all about? I completely agree with the above statement.

Methinks everyone including the analysts have some recency bias. Markets only go up, they don’t go down, until they do. At that point, it becomes moot. Especially when you find out those same analysts don’t have a penny to their name invested in the markets.

Also, it’s nice to see how often analysts are wrong and need to continuously revise their predictions. It’s like wetting your finger and putting it up to sense the direction of the wind. All we’re missing is burning incense and reading thrown bones.

#16 Ryan Lewenza on 07.21.18 at 2:58 pm

JSS “Hi Ryan, good news story for the S&P500, but can you please provide your insight towards the TSX. Where is it headed. Thanks”

We see the TSX heading higher, especially if we can renegotiate NAFTA sooner than later. TSX earnings outlook is solid and is very attractively valued at 14x earnings. If we can addesss the NATFA overhang I believe international investors will come back to the Canadian markets, helping to push our market higher. – Ryan L

#17 jess on 07.21.18 at 3:37 pm

another kind of inflation rankings

Temple business dean forced out over falsified MBA data used in rankings
Updated: July 9, 2018 — 6:56 PM EDT
…school had falsified data about its online M.B.A. program. The review showed that the Fox School of Business misrepresented the number of applicants who took the GMAT test, exaggerated their average undergraduate grade point averages, and understated the amount of debt that students incurred.”..

http://www.philly.com/philly/opinion/commentary/temple-university-business-school-falsified-rankings-us-news-world-reports-attorney-general-probe-20180716.html

fake science
The organization that uncovered the world of offshore tax havens and rogue international finance in the Panama Papers and Luxembourg Leaks has shifted its attention to fake science.

http://retractionwatch.org/

====

‘Fake Science’ investigation
COLLABORATION
New international investigation tackles ‘fake science’ and its poisonous effects

Hundreds of thousands of scientists worldwide have published studies in self-described scientific journals that don’t provide traditional checks for accuracy and quality, according to a new journalistic investigation.

Dozens of reporters from media outlets in Europe, Asia and the United States have analysed 175,000 scientific articles published by five of the world’s largest pseudo-scientific platforms including India-based Publishing Group and the Turkey-based World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology, or Waset. In addition to failing to perform peer or editorial committee reviews of articles, the companies charge to publish articles, accept papers by employees of pharmaceutical and other companies as well as by climate-change skeptics promoting questionable theories.

https://www.icij.org/blog/2018/07/new-international-investigation-tackles-fake-science-and-its-poisonous-effects/

#18 Peter McLean on 07.21.18 at 3:40 pm

So Ryan, what you are saying is that I should buy low, then sell high?

#19 Penny Henny on 07.21.18 at 4:04 pm

My version of balanced and diversified is up 2.5% so far this year. I’m wondering how this compares to other balanced and diversifieds out there?

#20 Stan Brooks on 07.21.18 at 4:14 pm

#11 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.21.18 at 2:06 pm

I respect your opinion but I think you are wrong on Italy.

Calling the descendants of the greatest Empire the world has ever known who established the foundation of our civilization, law, culture and society ‘paisanos’ is kind of inappropriate at mildest, after all these people ruled the known then world for over 1000 years. Or 2000 if you count the Eastern Roman Empire/Byzantium.

Not 150 as independent state for a former colony as us.
And we are already moving towards ‘post-national’ state at least in the delirium tremens ‘mind’ of our leader T2 without never ever actually been a nation (cough cough, Quebec).

I was pleasantly surprised that Italians are much better financially educated, do not overextend in mortgages and overall their financial situation despite what we read in the press is much more sustainable that ours (total debt much lower than ours).

Same for the health care.

Maybe is time to stop living on former glory and start changing actually something in this place.

I can guarantee you that the average Italian lives much better life, is much less stressed and eats much better cuisine than the average Canadian. And Italians can actually retire, I have never ever seen an Italian retiree digging in the garbage bins as you can see in many places in the ‘world class city Toronto’.

As for Berlusconi, he is miles ahead of the likes of T2 and the french villa guy.

As for the weather, scenery, quality of food, it is truly incomparable.

We should probably learn to be suck ups to the Italians as they are actually blocking currently the EU/Canada trade agreement, probably afraid of our GMO food, pesticides, growth hormones, antibiotics and all that fake food jazz that comprises our food industry.

Ever tried just-fished fresh sardines with lots of green salad and olive oil and lemon? Accompanied by Italian wine? You should.

#21 AK on 07.21.18 at 4:24 pm

” If Trump can get out of the way with his escalating trade war (and save himself)”
=====================================
If President Trump does that, that will mean that CNN and MSNBC will have to shut down.

He is keeping these 2 useless Networks and a few others in business.

#22 Ryan Lewenza on 07.21.18 at 4:31 pm

Last of the Boomers “If corporate earnings are so great and the stock market is suppose to follow then why is my balanced and diversified portfolio at slightly less than 0% gain after fees so far this year and down a full percentage point after fees from the Jan 25th, 2018 high. When is this gain suppose to materialize, or are we really balanced?”

S&P 500 earnings where up 13% last year helping to drive a 20% total return and a 10.5% return before fees for our balanced portfolio. We’re only one full quarter into 2018 with the S&P 500 up roughly 5% and our balanced portfolio up roughly 3%. So we’re not doing that bad so far. I believe Trumps tariff war is weighing on stock returns this year. If he can give it a rest and earnings continue to grow then I see more upside in the second half. – Ryan L

#23 Stan Brooks on 07.21.18 at 4:41 pm

I have a feeling that this bull market in stocks will run for much longer than anyone actually anticipates.

As normalization of rates is not possible in any shape of form we can see temporary fluctuations down due to recessions but the overall trend should be up, once the fact that rates can not and will not be normalized (in our lifetime according to Bernanke, and he plans to live a long life…) becomes apparent.

There is simply no other relevant market except the world stock markets, a portfolio diversified in international stocks, split between growth and dividends, very little or no bonds, some preferred (maybe), some solid commodity exposure (traditional, non dirty oil) will probably beat any alternative.

By the way the resilience of cryptos is interesting. I guess anything is possible when there are believers.

#24 Shawn Allen on 07.21.18 at 4:41 pm

The chart scales left and right are inconsistent

Right hand earnings scale should go zero to $250 to be consistently one tenth of the index scale at left that goes zero to 2500. Shown with consistent scales it would be more clear that index has in fact grown faster than earnings as the P/E has expanded by at least double since 1980.

Nevertheless I agree with the conclusions here. Earnings must drive the index long term albeit with volatility in the relationship. But it would seem fair to use consistent scales, no?

#25 Shawn Allen on 07.21.18 at 4:45 pm

Whither Competition?

So, much or almost all of the income tax reductions have fallen to the bottom line earnings. In a truly competitive market ALL of that would soon be competed away in lower prices and/or higher wages.

Conclusion: U.S. large companies face little competition?

Anti Trust action needed?

#26 Stan Brooks on 07.21.18 at 4:57 pm

#12 Westcdn on 07.21.18 at 2:16 pm

Sit on your behind, collect your income and dividends and live your life.

Why would you use growth-tax-free RRSP room to finance commercial property purchase at times when commercial properties and economy are at their peak (driven by huge credit bubble)?

Disclaimer: Like every investment that RRSP that you grow carefully might be claimed by somebody else in the form of outright confiscation or increased withdrawal taxes.

Interesting what will happen if you used it to finance commercial property purchase, you will be effectively stuck to that mortgage and unable to withdraw the funds from the RRSP if needed rt the thing really hits the fan and they come after/your RRSP.

My advice is to keep your RRSP relatively liquid with ever increasing flexibility and readiness to collapse and withdraw portions/all of it on short notice.

When the things start unraveling (it could be long wait before that) it could be quick.

#27 Top on 07.21.18 at 5:04 pm

20 Stan Brooks on 07.21.18 at 4:14 pm

————————————————–

Well said Stan. Those other two dolts haven’t even stop to think abput what the Italians have brought to civilization and continue to bring the modern world on a daily basis. Canada is an inconsequential country. It could sink into the ocean and no one would notice for weeks.

#28 For those about to flop... on 07.21.18 at 5:14 pm

CONFIRMED PINK SNOW

O.k ,so this one I got to show you pretty much in real times father reaching out , thanks go to Burnaby Renter.

The details…

428 Northcliffe Crescent, Burnaby.

Paid 1.82 July 2017

Sold 1.62 April 2018

So a straight 200k between numbers and although not too sure what they got up to in the interior,on the outside they at bare minimum painted the exterior and done some major landscaping.

It looks as though the plan was the focus on the house as is after some renovations and then when that didn’t work they focused on potential redevelopment of the site and the view.

So if we ding them 16% after sale expenses and then say 50k for improvements we arrive at a loss of about 350k in less than a year…

M44BC

////////////////////////
#102 Bby renter on 05.15.18 at 2:12 am
Flop,
Definitely drove over…
Northcliffe in Burnaby sold for $1,625,000 on April 25th.

Sold April 26 2016

428 Northcliffe Crescent, Burnaby paid 1.82 July 2017 ass 1.76 asking 1.89

Jan 8:$2,598,000
Feb 8: $1,998,000
Change: – 600000.00 -23%

https://www.zolo.ca/burnaby-real-estate/428-northcliffe-crescent

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAzVkxDSA==

#29 akashic record on 07.21.18 at 5:16 pm

“The S&P 500 is up roughly 300% since 2009…”

If people felt that their life got 300% times better, Hillary would be the president.

And the debt… In January 20, 2009, it stood at $10.6 trillion; in 2016, it was at $18 trillion. The increase “is $65,443 per household, $70,985 per full-time worker and $84,266 per full-time private-sector worker.”

Where has all that S&P 500 wealth and money from the debt increase go?

Looking at the chart, this should be the Golden Age of the USA.

How come the Democratic Party, that brought this growth on the chart lost the election, it is disintegrating, moving towards “democratic socialism” – traditionally the platform for the poor, that doesn’t have a good track record worldwide to create wealth?

Do you see any disconnect here that may have a material effect in investors portfolio?

#30 akashic record on 07.21.18 at 5:25 pm

#24 Shawn Allen on 07.21.18 at 4:41 pm

The chart scales left and right are inconsistent

Definately, this chart with Max looks more like it for telling the story visually.

It looks like jackpot. Who are the winners?

http://www.fedprimerate.com/s-and-p-500-index-history-chart.htm

#31 Stan Brooks on 07.21.18 at 5:40 pm

https://www.buzzfeed.com/tanyachen/things-canadians-are-truly-proud-of?utm_term=.me59oV6By#.anK4yokm0

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seven_deadly_sins#Pride

Pride (Latin, superbia) is considered, on almost every list, the original and most serious of the seven deadly sins: the perversion of the faculties that make humans more like God—dignity and holiness. It is also thought to be the source of the other capital sins. Also known as hubris (from ancient Greek ὕβρις), or futility, it is identified as dangerously corrupt selfishness, the putting of one’s own desires, urges, wants, and whims before the welfare of people.

In even more destructive cases, it is irrationally believing that one is essentially and necessarily better, superior, or more important than others, failing to acknowledge the accomplishments of others, and excessive admiration of the personal image or self (especially forgetting one’s own lack of divinity, and refusing to acknowledge one’s own limits, faults, or wrongs as a human being).

What the weak head with strongest bias rules, Is pride, the never-failing vice of fools.

— Alexander Pope, An Essay on Criticism, line 203.

#32 emerging markets on 07.21.18 at 5:50 pm

Ryan, are you still bullish Emerging Markets? they have been crushed

thoughts?

#33 tccontrarian on 07.21.18 at 5:51 pm

On the other hand…

… there are many examples of investors assuming extrapolation risk. The most obvious is the use of recent earnings results and forecasts to calculate the value of equities. One of the most popular methods of equity valuation is to simply apply an earnings multiple to next year’s earnings estimate, with many estimates assuming current trends will persist without interruption. In effect, earnings predictions are based on the past several quarters of operating results (extrapolation), not full-cycle margin dispersion and scenario analysis (normalizing).

#34 For those about to flop... on 07.21.18 at 5:53 pm

CONFIRMED PINK SNOW

O.k ,so this one I got to show you pretty much in real time after reaching out , thanks go to Burnaby Renter.

The details…

428 Northcliffe Crescent, Burnaby.

Paid 1.82 July 2017

Sold 1.62 April 2018

So a straight 200k between numbers and although not too sure what they got up to in the interior,on the outside they at bare minimum painted the exterior and done some major landscaping.

It looks as though the plan was the focus on the house “as is” after some renovations and then when that didn’t work they focused on potential redevelopment of the site and the view.

So if we ding them 16% after sale expenses and then say 50k for improvements we arrive at a loss of about 350k in less than a year…

M44BC

////////////////////////
#102 Bby renter on 05.15.18 at 2:12 am
Flop,
Definitely drove over…
Northcliffe in Burnaby sold for $1,625,000 on April 25th.

Sold April 26 2016

428 Northcliffe Crescent, Burnaby paid 1.82 July 2017 ass 1.76 asking 1.89

Jan 8:$2,598,000
Feb 8: $1,998,000
Change: – 600000.00 -23%

https://www.zolo.ca/burnaby-real-estate/428-northcliffe-crescent

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAzVkxDSA==

#35 Ryan Lewenza on 07.21.18 at 6:02 pm

Shawn Allen “The chart scales left and right are inconsistent. Right hand earnings scale should go zero to $250 to be consistently one tenth of the index scale at left that goes zero to 2500. Shown with consistent scales it would be more clear that index has in fact grown faster than earnings as the P/E has expanded by at least double since 1980.”

Stock prices have grown at a higher rate than earnings growth (8% versus 7.5% for earnings growth) and stock prices include the change in P/E over time. That explains the difference in scales. It’s more about the clear trend then having consistent scales. – Ryan L

#36 Ryan Lewenza on 07.21.18 at 6:42 pm

emerging markets “Ryan, are you still bullish Emerging Markets? they have been crushed thoughts?”

I sure am. EM equities crushed it last year up 30% and are down 6-7% YTD. The stronger US dollar and Trump’s trade war are the reasons behind the weakness. These are short term headwinds but the longer term outlook remains bright based on 1) nearly a decade of underperformance, 2) incredibly cheap valuations, 3) much stronger economic growth from EM countries and 4) improving technical trends. While the next quarter or two could be a challenge as we work through Trump’s trade war, I think the outlook over the next 5 years looks great. – Ryan L

#37 Can You Dig It? on 07.21.18 at 6:53 pm

#34 Confirmed Pink Snow’s posts are so useless.

Dude a house that goes from $900k in 2014 and sells at $1,788,000 with 200k off asking is crazy insane.

Get some perspective dum dum.

#38 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.21.18 at 7:06 pm

@#27 Top
“Those other two dolts haven’t even stop to think abput what the Italians have brought to civilization…”
++++++

Dolt…..glad to know I’ve come up in the world…… but I do know how to spell “about”

Italians have also brought the following to civilization, Circus Maximus, Pax Romana, Crucifiction, Christians fed to Lions for “sport”, Religious Crusades, The invasion of the Middle east…twice, La Cosa Nostra, Omerta, Pasta ( “discovered” in China), Pizza ( refined finger food), Mussolini, espresso, Lamborginis, Ferraris, Pirrelli rubber, hand gesturing as an art form, Pablo Picasso paintings where everyone’s face looks like a two eyed flounder…. on and on and on….
Never mind Canada disappearing…….

How DID we survive without Italy when Canada was settled by the Aboriginals, Vikings, French, British, Spanish? Didnt hear of a lot of Italians setting up camp….
How WILL we survive if Italy implodes financially( massive debt), or politically( endless coalition minority govts with former clowns running the show), or more probably demographically ( mamma’s little boys aint having enough bambinos to replace the workers).

Nah. Dolce Vita is bragging about TODAYS’ Italy so let ALL us Dolts focus on that shall we?
The way things are going…….
“Viva Italia!” may be something historians query in 200 years at the University of British Columbia…….

#39 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 07.21.18 at 7:23 pm

#13 Last of the Boomers on 07.21.18 at 2:18 pm
Ryan,

If corporate earnings are so great and the stock market is suppose to follow then why is my balanced and diversified portfolio at slightly less than 0% gain after fees so far this year and down a full percentage point after fees from the Jan 25th, 2018 high. When is this gain suppose to materialize, or are we really balanced?
………………………….
I’m not Ryan but : One year is nothing…there will be ups and downs….think in decades, like 20 or 30 years….Time IN the market is the biggest factor in growing your portfolio.

#40 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.21.18 at 7:24 pm

@#31 Stan Brooks
Pride is one of the seven deadly sins…”
++++++

I assume you have included Dolce Vita’s comments in that statement?

Lets refresh our memories from #65 yesterday shall we?
+++++++
“BTW Canada, upper 20’s °C to low 30’s °C and you’re all having a KANIPSHIT with HEAT WAVE warnings…WHAT a BUNCH of PUSSIES…it’s been like that since April when God turns on the heat lamp in Italia (low to mid 30s °C since then, it was 43°C yesterday in my home town in NE Italia).

Why we Italians go to the beach in Summer AND to avoid the tourist hordes that are still plying our streets wreaking of sun tan lotion, half naked in their less than stylish vanilla and boring GAP outfits, with white salted soaked TILLEY HATS, cheap rubber/plastic flip flops and wheeled luggage creating a racket at 0200 hrs on centuries/millennia old cobblestone streets (late flight in)…….

+++++++

…and I thought arrogance was a French trait….
Perhaps some of Napoleon’s invading/ conquering army troops stayed 200 years ago??

#41 For those about to flop... on 07.21.18 at 7:37 pm

Dum dum at 6:53 pm
#34 Confirmed Pink Snow’s posts are so useless.

Dude a house that goes from $900k in 2014 and sells at $1,788,000 with 200k off asking is crazy insane.

Get some perspective dum dum.

/////////////////

O.k, so you got the dum dum part right ,but everything else in your post was wrong…

M44BC

#42 Shawn on 07.21.18 at 7:37 pm

Yeah you’re probably right.

Historically the S&P500 has posted a major low during every mid term election year. When it hasn’t really bad things happened afterward. The question is was Feb the low? Maybe…

#43 Shawn on 07.21.18 at 7:39 pm

Now is probably an excellent time to add emerging market exposure. BAML data indicates they are the most hated segment of the global market among fund managers.

#44 NEVER GIVE UP on 07.21.18 at 7:53 pm

More clear evidence that foreign money exacerbated our housing bubble in a powerful way.

Why anyone can not see that is difficult to understand.
When our loonie dropped housing sales rose fast in the 2 main markets.

https://business.financialpost.com/opinion/philip-cross-how-canadas-weak-dollar-strategy-flopped-and-then-backfired

#45 Stone on 07.21.18 at 8:15 pm

#19 Penny Henny on 07.21.18 at 4:04 pm
My version of balanced and diversified is up 2.5% so far this year. I’m wondering how this compares to other balanced and diversifieds out there?

————

3.52%.

#46 Tony on 07.21.18 at 8:32 pm

Re: #12 Westcdn on 07.21.18 at 2:16 pm

They’re simply going to hide the balance sheet likely one and the same.

#47 NoName on 07.21.18 at 8:38 pm

Attention agents use this teknique to avoid pink posts.

https://elgan.com/blog/real-estate-agent-stages-a-house-using-a-t-rex-costume

Real estate agents are getting creative. An agent in Granbury, Texas, staged a home for an online listing with someone wearing a T. Rex costume (available for $50 on Amazon). The stunt worked, apparently, because the home sold quickly.

#48 For those about to flop... on 07.21.18 at 8:39 pm

Pink Lemonade Stand in Burnaby.

Here’s another one for all the Burnaby people on the blog that I will track on their behalf.

They paid 1.55 in June 2016 and never even tried to get whole after expenses from the get go.

They did exactly what the cartel wanted them to do.

They were good Buffalo Soldiers…

M44BC

7132 Buffalo Street, Burnaby paid 1.55 June 2016 ass 1.59

Apr 9:$1,580,000
Jul 20: $1,480,000
Change: – 100000.00 -6%

https://www.zolo.ca/burnaby-real-estate/7132-buffalo-street

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Feel free to make a donation.

Flop For Fox Fund…

http://www.terryfox.org/get-involved/ways-to-give/

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=S5FCdx7Dn0o

#49 Ray on 07.21.18 at 8:46 pm

“Trump has broken with precedent in recent days with comments criticizing the U.S. dollar’s strength and the Fed’s monetary policy, tweeting on Friday that the Fed’s rate hikes take away the U.S. “competitive edge” in exports.
“Let me be clear, this is not in any way the president trying to intervene in the currency markets whatsoever,” Mnuchin said, adding that the United States does not try to manage its currency valuation.”
—-
https://www.reuters.com/article/g20-argentina-mnuchin/update-1-trump-not-trying-to-intervene-in-currency-markets-mnuchin-idUSL1N1UH05B

How can Mnuchin state what the Trumpster means with his tweets or even means when he speaks. No-one on this earth knows what Trump means, including Trump. I think Trump is amazed every single second he is speaking, listening to himself. He is saying to himself. “Holy Crap! , I never even thought of that before! I’ve got to keep speaking to see how this thought ends”

#50 I'M A STABLE GENIUS! on 07.21.18 at 8:47 pm

Sorry America!
Canada is the Most educated country in the world!
We could teach you, but we’d have to charge!

https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/d796ea9f-4192-47e7-8da4-898d84076dd8

http://newsfeed.time.com/2012/09/27/and-the-worlds-most-educated-country-is/

#51 TRUMP on 07.21.18 at 8:47 pm

Strong … Right NOW!

All-TIME HIGHS!

Those two events in one sentence worries me.

#52 NoName on 07.21.18 at 9:41 pm

fartz, dolce vita and i’m thinking apocalipse any min now…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u76u2vPcDUM

#53 Ace Goodheart on 07.21.18 at 9:45 pm

So we’ve basically gotten screwed.

For rich folk like me it doesn’t matter. I just collect my free monthly income, dividends distributions and sell stuff for capital gains. If one market croaks the other one sings. I am fine whatever. Smart enough to keep my money working for me.

But I also moonlight as a social justice warrior. And man, people are pissed.

I don’t think the majority of the wealthy understand the depth of the anger that is out there.

I see it every day.

This extreme right wing conservative stuff that is sweeping over everything is crushing something dangerous.

At any rate, being the liberal that I am I have noticed something.

People have stopped believing

Me? I have made my fortune and my life on one principle: NEVER BELIEVE IN ANYTHING. Full stop.

Have no beliefs. No values. No principles. Do what you do. Justify it by the results. If things get hard have an outlet. For me it was nature. Find your special place. I have an island up North, Crown land, owned by no one. I go there when things get to much for me. Tin boat. 9.9 merc four stroke on the back. Sometimes I stay for weeks. After a few days the mosquitos stop biting you. You make friends with the Racoons (incredibly intelligent animals). At some point I feel better and I go back. Sometimes it takes weeks.

What I have noticed is that people have lost faith. A lot of people feel how I do. I meet more and more people who feel like I do. They don’t care.

The problem with this is of course the self made wealthy know that the way to wealth is play on everyone else’s values. If you have none yourself, you win every time.

It is easy for a valueless person to beat someone who cares.

Problem is more and more people don’t care.

#54 Heloguy on 07.21.18 at 9:50 pm

#38 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.21.18 at 7:06 pm
@#27 Top
“Those other two dolts haven’t even stop to think abput what the Italians have brought to civilization…”
++++++

Dolt…..glad to know I’ve come up in the world…… but I do know how to spell “about”

Italians have also brought the following to civilization, Circus Maximus, Pax Romana, Crucifiction, Christians fed to Lions for “sport”, Religious Crusades, The invasion of the Middle east…twice, La Cosa Nostra, Omerta, Pasta ( “discovered” in China), Pizza ( refined finger food), Mussolini, espresso, Lamborginis, Ferraris, Pirrelli rubber, hand gesturing as an art form, Pablo Picasso paintings where everyone’s face looks like a two eyed flounder…

But you don’t know Picasso was Spanish. lol

#55 Long-Time Lurker on 07.21.18 at 9:56 pm

>Communism fails yet again:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cuba-assembly/cuba-aims-to-build-socialism-not-communism-in-draft-constitution-idUSKBN1KB0ML?il=0

…The current draft omits a clause in the 1976 constitution on the ultimate aim of building a “communist society”, instead simply focusing on socialism.

…Laying out the new constitution to lawmakers on Saturday, the secretary of the council of state, Homero Acosta, said it included the recognition of private property, something long stigmatized by the Communist Party as a vestige of capitalism.

That change should give greater legal recognition to the micro businesses that have flourished in the wake of market reforms to the ailing state-run economy that have fostered a small but vibrant private sector and attempted to rake in more foreign investment…

The reforms have slowed however in recent years amid fears they have allowed some Cubans to enrich themselves, fostering inequality, and weakened the control of the state….

>By the way, the situation in Nicaragua is deteriorating.

#56 BS on 07.21.18 at 10:59 pm

#8 Catalyst on 07.21.18 at 1:24 pm
I hear alot of people calling for 19/20 recession when QE falls off and trade wars start to bite. Given how hard it is to time the market, why not just go defensive now. Even if you miss the 5% up, you miss the 15% down.

After the market has gone down 15% how do you know that is the bottom and it is time to buy? You won’t. If you are too scared to be invested now when the market is going up, you certainly won’t be buying after it has gone down 15%. Were you buying in February after the last 10% correction? If you did you just made over 10% in 5 months. Close to 20% if you were invested in US unhedged. Those who sold gave up 20% already. By the time the next correction comes they may have given up 50%.

Most people who wait for the correction never buy after it happens. It sounds like it is easy but it is not. If you bought the 2008 correction after the first 15% down you lost a lot of money and it would have taken years to break even. Nobody knows when the top or bottom is in until long after it happens. Not even the pros. Best to just stay invested and ride out what ever happens.

#57 Ace Goodheart on 07.21.18 at 11:19 pm

So had the discussion with the wifey about Santa Clause.

She’s like, we need to involve this person in our son’s life. So I’m like yeah, we need to lie to him, tell him that a person who doesn’t exist, rides a flying snow sled to our house, on December 25th each year, slips down our chimney, deposits presents in the living room, and then off he goes, pulled by reindeer (that don’t exist in North America) to do the same thing to every other house (and condo I guess) all over the world.

I’m like, the North Pole is water. Are you nuts? I am not telling him that someone lives up there. The only things that live up there are fish and whales. Even seals can’t go there (it’s too remote and there’s no land anywhere near it).

A reindeer in North America is a Caribou. Those horned deer thingys you see way North (but not at the North Pole, that is water).

Why do we lie to our kids? Don’t we realise that is what makes them into screwed up adults? Waiting for mythical creatures to come and save them? Believing in willow the wisp and fairies and benevolent other worldly beings?

I was like, NO, no Santa Clause. No Easter bunny (though that is slightly more realistic than the sled guy living in water world up north somewhere), no tooth fairy. At Christmas, we tell him, your parents bought you a bunch of gifts, because we love you. We’ll buy you more, at least four times a year. Happy birthday! (and no, a magical man from an inhospitable frozen water covered part of the planet, where nothing can survive other than hardy fish and the occasional misguided whale, did not bring you your birthday presents).

She’s still mad at me. Says that Santa Clause was one of her favourite child hood memories. I am like “you poor misguided dear you”.

Being a street kid has its advantages. We learned young that fairies, Santa Clauses and mythical creatures were just a load of caca, rich kid stuff, something to laugh at.

Don’t lie to your kids people. It doesn’t help them….

#58 For those about to flop... on 07.21.18 at 11:37 pm

Pink Lemonade Stand in North Vancouver.

These guys picked this riverfront property up for 1.75 in October 2017.

They just took 2% off because they are already down to break even territory after expenses.

The assessment lags at 1.68

Vancouver is enduring a mild correction at this stage,but after a lot of folk getting used to 20% a year appreciation of their properties , anything negative is a shock to the system.

No sign of a major crash as yet,just some dark clouds on the horizon.

For some people those clouds contain Thunderbolts and Lightning.

Very,very frightening….

M44BC

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=fJ9rUzIMcZQ

1020 Seymour Boulevard, North Vancouver.paid 1.75 October 2017 ass 1.68

Mar 20:$1,888,000
Jul 20: $1,848,000
Change: – 40000.00 -2%

https://www.zolo.ca/north-vancouver-real-estate/1020-seymour-boulevard

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Feel free to make a donation.

Flop For Fox Fund…

http://www.terryfox.org/get-involved/ways-to-give/

#59 Spectacle on 07.22.18 at 12:50 am

Hey there Flop,

” #9 For those about to flop… on 07.21.18 at 1:49 pm ”

I greatly appreciate your input my friend. Thanks to You, and Ryan cudos, and Garth.

I understand you are in YVR. Any personal opinion you want to sum up in regard to your postings. What is your boots on the ground feeling.

Residential construction , new custom builds pretty much stopped lately. Thoughts?

#60 will on 07.22.18 at 1:41 am

“The strong earnings growth is being driven by a combination of robust revenue growth (7-8% over the last few quarters), continued high margins, stock buybacks and a lower corporate tax rate following last year’s historic US tax reform.”

Need to break it out. In particular I would like to know what % is attributed to buybacks, though I guess that would be rather complex as all companies would be different.

#61 Stan Brooks on 07.22.18 at 2:51 am

#40 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.21.18 at 7:24 pm

Both of you and Dolce Vita (he actually wrote it Il Duce Vita, probably referring to Il Duce – Mussolini…) have some valid points but the pissing match was interesting.

I personally find the heat in southern Canada/Ontario much more difficult to handle due to the unbearable humidity which is a factor all year around, making both the winter and the summer weather much worse.

Italians are nor that arrogant in general, much more difficult to brainwash.

#62 Stan Brooks on 07.22.18 at 3:01 am

I could not find the BoC boss’s email address so I am posting this here:

http://www.cleansehelp.com/cleanse-detox-blog/15-constipation-home-recipes-linkme/

Judging by his monetary policies (small chunk/token interest increases that takes very long to produce) he could be suffering from constipation.

=======================

Or the verbal diarrhea that he spews could be indicative of another type of real digestive problem (+he looks dizzy and disoriented at these press conferences)

https://www.webmd.com/digestive-disorders/understanding-diarrhea-treatment#1

#63 MF on 07.22.18 at 9:44 am

38 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.21
Stan Brooks on 07.21.18 at 4:14
7 Top on 07.21.18 at 5:04 pm

-It’s been mentioned here a few times before with respect to this topic but Canada has a massive Italian population and they have done well in Canada.

Nobody cares about wine and olive oil when your country is Collapsing from corruption, war, or economic failure.

Most Italians immigrated here in the 40’-60’s when Italy and much of Europe was afflicted by these factors.

How quickly we forget eh?

-a lot of immigrants have a romantic notion of what their previous countries were like. If it’s so good why don’t they all leave? (they never do)

-In the case of Italy, it’s in a very precarious place today again. There is the migrant situation that is threatening the very cohesiveness of the entire populace. There will be massive repercussions that are only now beginning to be felt. Also, Italy is part of the EU which will collapse at one point for sure. When that happens all of the former EU states will suffer.

MF

#64 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.22.18 at 9:44 am

@#54 Heloguy
“But you don’t know Picasso was Spanish. lol”
+++++
A Helicopter guy who dabbles in art.
A true renaissance man.

Ah yes “Geurnica” . How silly of me.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guernica_(Picasso)

I was never a Picasso fan. The “two eyes on one side flounder faces” got me every time…. $50 million for kindergarden etchings from essentially a hallucinating schizophrenic….time to pick up a crayon and render “masterpieces” and sell to the uber rich.

Since you’re the first to point it out you get a free elevator ride OR you can take me for a helo ride….. Confined spaces with ups and downs are my farty forte.

#65 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.22.18 at 9:54 am

@#47 NoName

https://elgan.com/blog/real-estate-agent-stages-a-house-using-a-t-rex-costume

That was hilarious.
One hopes and prays (preys?) the realtors up here will have to debase themselves even further than that to close a sale.

#66 Ryan Lewenza on 07.22.18 at 9:59 am

will ““The strong earnings growth is being driven by a combination of robust revenue growth (7-8% over the last few quarters), continued high margins, stock buybacks and a lower corporate tax rate following last year’s historic US tax reform.”

Need to break it out. In particular I would like to know what % is attributed to buybacks, though I guess that would be rather complex as all companies would be different.

It’s not that complicated since it’s just the aggregated amount of stock buybacks for the overall index. Stock buybacks have been adding an estimated 2-3% of earnings growth these last few years. – Ryan L

#67 Renter's Revenge! on 07.22.18 at 10:14 am

#57 Ace Goodheart on 07.21.18 at 11:19 pm

Ace, learn how to spell. It’s Santa Claus, not Clause.

Santa Clause sounds like a clause in your marriage contract where if your wife ever gets a chance to sleep with Santa, it’s not cheating, but with any other guy it is. Maybe that’s why she wants to “include him in your son’s life”. You better find out who this guy is, quick.

#68 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.22.18 at 10:45 am

#65 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.22.18 at 9:54 am
@#47 NoName

https://elgan.com/blog/real-estate-agent-stages-a-house-using-a-t-rex-costume

That was hilarious.
One hopes and prays (preys?) the realtors up here will have to debase themselves even further than that to close a sale.
—————–
I hope he enjoyed himself.
He and all realtors will soon be extinct.

#69 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.22.18 at 10:55 am

As for Italy’s economy.
About 50 %f it is under the table. Always has been, always will be.
Therefore official numbers are not reliable.
It’s true, that the south is a mess, but the northerners enjoy a very good standard of living.
Just visit Milano or Torino.
Also, Turism alone could sustain them forever.
And the man, are the best lovers.
So I’m told.
I’m not Italian, by the way.

#70 Geoffrey on 07.22.18 at 11:02 am

Excellent content in this article. Keep up the informative work that your post provide.

#71 For those about to flop... on 07.22.18 at 11:08 am

Spectacle at 12:50 am
Hey there Flop,

” #9 For those about to flop… on 07.21.18 at 1:49 pm ”

I greatly appreciate your input my friend. Thanks to You, and Ryan cudos, and Garth.

I understand you are in YVR. Any personal opinion you want to sum up in regard to your postings. What is your boots on the ground feeling.

Residential construction , new custom builds pretty much stopped lately. Thoughts?

///////////////////////

Morning Speckie,maybe I had a bit of a premonition when I wrote the below sentence last night.

“Vancouver is enduring a mild correction at this stage,but after a lot of folk getting used to 20% a year appreciation of their properties , anything negative is a shock to the system.”

As I touched on the other day ,the euphoria on Westside detached seems to have died down a bit ,but most people seem to be continuing on ,albeit a little bit more cautiously than recent years.

The developers that bought the land early enough and can modify budgets and plans before construction can still do alright as although not as hot as before there is still demand for the shiny new things in life.

Margins will obviously be a bit tighter but still enough jam on the toast for most.

The guys that paid 5-8 million for and old piece of crap or empty block of land ,and were planning on holding for a year or so and selling,I don’t see things working out so well for them.

Just saw a empty block of land sell that I will do in a separate post.

As I told you recently,I am hedging my bets and trying to protect myself as much as possible, I recently applied for a job working for the city and they extended the deadline for applications by a couple of weeks so we’ll see what becomes of that.

If more gaps appear in the building schedule I will have to reevaluate ,but even the guys on the bottom of the ladder get roughly twice minimum wage ,so a lot of guys will probably just ride it till the end,I look around and don’t see much else going on to diversify into.

Just one more point if I may ,and I will use a couple of cases nearby where I live as an example.

Some flipping is worse than others and perhaps the distinction between flipping and hoarding should be made.

This is a former case.

They paid 1.51 and sold for 1.58 and took a loss after expenses.

They played the game but it didn’t work out for them but at the least they pumped money into the economy.

They rehabbed the house,so money went to cabinet shop,counter tops, plumbing shops,paint stores ,yada ,yada.

Keeps companies profitable and people employed.

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/5540-windsor-street

On the other hand ,guys like these are hoarders,picked up for 1.2 ,chasing the best part of 1.5,had it on for 999k for a while trying to whip the crowd into a frenzy,didn’t work.

They have done nothing since moving in and the house continues to slowly disintegrate and they just sit around waiting for a pay day.

https://jaybanks.ca/vancouver-real-estate/904-e-37th-avenue

In a perfect world the two cases would be switched ,but we know that’s not how it it works. The first guys put some effort and some capital in and got zip,I walk by it and the new family seems to be enjoying it.

If the flippers stop and the hoarding continues then problems in Vancouver will just be magnified.

I think that’s why some people aren’t very happy with the decision to rezone some of the houses in the Grandview area.

The city takes some of the more affordable housing stock out of the pot ,and drops in some glass and granite ,and then wonders why people have a hard time swallowing the meal they just served up…

M44BC

#72 Biff on 07.22.18 at 11:16 am

Great post Ryan and thanks for the Q&A in the comments.
Keep up the good work, break a leg. :-)

#73 Oft deleted much maligned stock.picker on 07.22.18 at 11:26 am

Mexico has thrown Canada under the bus….you’ll see the headlines likely next week. The money in things like TRP and ENB pipelines in Mexico have teflected the coming splatter of Liberal against the media windscreen. Biggest firms in US energy are tipped to preceed. Plan is to rebuild Mexican infrastructure in exchange for closing southern border with Central America. Big Face for Trump and the all important Latino vote….90% Mexican.

Obviously …..Harper is to blame…….strange timing though eh? Right after Harper went to Washington the Trudeau Globalist Gambit gets flushed…..yup real mystery.

#74 For those about to flop... on 07.22.18 at 11:45 am

Recent sale report/ Realtor assistance needed.

Well,being Sunday and all maybe these guys need a few prayers said on their behalf.

Nah, too late for that ,the deal looks already done although Zolo is yet to update.

This block of land on Vancouver’s Westside just sold.

This was one of the blocks of land I was referring to in my previous post.

Picked up when the water was boiling over in Spring Fling 2016,they paid 5.39 for a block of land.

Started off trying to get the best part of six ,and forget about the worst part of five ,the sale number most likely starts with a four.

This is Vancouver,where stupidity knows no bounds real estate wise ,and so now I have to wait for confirmation and anything is possible.

The chefs over in Victoria are trying to turn the heat down ,and while they reach for the condiments ,the waiters over at Vancouver city hall play around with the controls and pour alcohol everywhere ,thinking that its residents want everything flambéd.

Most people seem to want a slow rolling boil.

Are these guys cooked?

Oy Oy Saveloy…

M44BC
1650 Waterloo Street, Vancouver paid 5.39 April 2016 ass4.74 now asking 5.19

block of land

Jan 12:$5,900,000
Jun 20: $5,698,000

Change: – 202000.00 -3%

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/1650-waterloo-street

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAwMDVEWA==

http://www.westsiderealty.ca/ActiveListings.php/Details/1156/1650-waterloo-street-vancouver-bc

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Feel free to make a donation.

Flop For Fox Fund…

http://www.terryfox.org/get-involved/ways-to-give/

#75 ShawnG in TO on 07.22.18 at 12:44 pm

yo Ryan,

i’ve been saving this techno trading page just for you:

http://www.newtraderu.com/2018/05/14/the-moving-average-system-that-crushes-buy-hold

s&p 500
200 day moving average
look once a month (adjust if necessary)
out performs and less volatility

#76 Tony on 07.22.18 at 12:55 pm

Re: #66 Ryan Lewenza on 07.22.18 at 9:59 am

If you factor out cost cutting and share buybacks earnings are flat to down since 2011. If you factor out the fall in the U.S. dollar earnings are mostly negative since 2009. No one knows the fate of these corporations making the wrong decision to buyback shares.

#77 B Wilds on 07.22.18 at 1:14 pm

A slew of stories and articles have hit the news recently about how companies buying back their own stock are driving the market higher. The new recently passed tax law which lowers corporate taxes and encourages repatriation of cash that has been stored overseas is feeding fuel into the share buyback frenzy. These price insensitive buyers ready to purchase the market on weakness has added greatly to distorting and disrupting true price discovery.

To be perfectly clear, buybacks are a tool corporate boards and CEOs use to manipulate the prices of their own shares higher. This means insiders can get out or hedge their positions before reality sets in and prices fall back to earth. Call it a well constructed exit strategy if you like. More on this issue in the article below;

http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2018/03/stock-buybacks-driving-market-its.html

#78 genbizx on 07.22.18 at 1:20 pm

If having money made one happy….oh how happy these jerks would be

#79 Wrk.dover on 07.22.18 at 1:59 pm

I’ve been married to Santa Claus’s sister for 37 years, but I have yet to meet him. Not sure of his existence, but I am sure glad of hers, over 13,500 Christmas days onward.