The soft touch

Last month 88% of detached houses listed for sale in Vancouver failed to find buyers. So far this year, 39,900 properties in the giant GTA market have sold. That compares with 54,500 at the same time last year. Sales were down 30% in Vancouver. In Calgary transactions were off 11% and listings up 32%. In Edmonton sales are lower by 10% and prices 4% cheaper.

Is this the soft landing the Bank of Canada so craves?

We won’t know that for a year or so, but there’s little doubt momentum and sentiment have changed. It was the soggiest spring in two decades. Like, phfft, people just stopped talking about real estate. Mortgage originations have plunged. Eighty per cent of the largest brokerages in the GTA are pounding salt. No crash. Just an eerie silence over the entire market.

B20 is at the heart of this, plus rising mortgage rates. They go up again Wednesday as the Bank of Canada adds another quarter point. The decent jobs stats on Friday pretty much guaranteed that outcome. But now there are other uncertainties in the air that also have buyers recoiling. These are among the things that’ll probably take house prices lower:

  • The benchmark stress test mortgage rate will be almost 5.6% later this week or next and 6.5% within a year. Remember there’s an inverse relationship between rates and house prices.
  • The Trumpian trade war is just hotting up. He whacked China this weekend. If he slams the Canadian car business, the southern Ontario housing market is in the crosshairs.
  • BC’s Dipper government’s taxes are only now starting to have an impact. The speculation tax, the 20% anti-Chinese-dudes tax, the eat-the-rich tax plus the empty-houses tax are market-killers.
  • Trade wars will lessen economic and business activity everywhere, with Canada especially vulnerable. More than a third of our economy depends on trade.
  • If Trump levies the 25% tax on Canadian-made cars, production will likely shift out of Canada. The estimate of additional cost per vehicle to Canadian consumers: $9,000. Imagine what that does to family finances.
  • Speaking of which, household debt just hit a new high. LOCs are outta control. Yes, wages are risen 3.5% year/year but debt is increasing at about 8%. More borrowing, less spending. Not good for realtors.
  • And because we’ve foolishly, selfishly allowed real estate to become such a driver of overall economic activity, the landing now – soft or hard – will be impactful. Sales decline first and prices drift down later, so buyers are probably wise to stay on the sidelines.

Every market is unique, however. So we should probably expect a lot more agony in YVR than the GTA; in the 905 than the Six; and less in regions, like Montreal and Halifax, where prices never did go crypto.

Meanwhile, each interest rate increase (at least one more this year, maybe three next year, say economists) takes us closer to the point at which the Bank of Canada thinks the cost of money is “neutral.” That seems to be about 1% away, based on the central banks’ inflation forecast. So two key points: (a) why would you buy now?, and (b) if you do buy, be careful about the kind of loan taken. For example, a five-year variable is 2.6% at RBC while the five-year fixed rate is 3.4%. The cheap one looks appealing, but odds are it will be 3.6% in a year – seriously eating into your ability to pay the loan down over 60 months. And for those with existing bargain-basement mortgages in place (anything sub-3%), it makes no sense to be aggressive about paying it off. Instead of shoveling cash against the loan, invest it, then use gains at the end of the mortgage term to pay the principal down. Your net worth will probably be higher.

So, soft landing?

In some places, yeah, it looks that way. In others, pad your codpiece.

137 comments ↓

#1 Victoria Real Estate Update on 07.08.18 at 3:33 pm

TRUE OR FALSE (searching for a grain of truth in the unsubstantiated claims of Vancouver Island agents)

“Outside buyers from around the world continue to pour into Victoria creating stronger and stronger demand for single family homes every year.

This has been the case since 2015 when it became obvious to me (from what I thought was increased ferry traffic) that Victoria changed forever, suddenly becoming a world class city. Move over San Francisco!”

******************************************************

If stronger SFH sales levels every year suddenly became the new normal for Victoria in 2015, it would definitely show up in the local real estate board’s sales numbers.

June single family home sales in Victoria:
2018: 317*
2017: 476
2016: 585
2015: 481
2014: 379
2013: 359
2012: 336
2011: 317
2010: 302
2009: 484
2008: 358
2007: 482
2006: 414
(Source: Victoria’s R/E board).

Those numbers don’t show that sales of SFH homes have been stronger every year since 2015, the year that sales levels were supposed to rocket higher every year, leaving past sales levels in the dust.

Victoria SFH sales in June 2018 were:
* – 33% lower than in 2017 (the year demand was “likely to continue”)
* – 46% lower than in 2016 (the year the “new normal“ for sales was set)
* – 34% lower than in 2015 (the year Victoria “changed forever”)
* – 16% lower than in 2014 (a year before the world “suddenly discovered Victoria”)
* – 12% lower than in 2013 (one of Victoria’s t all-time weakest sales years since 1984)
* – 6% lower than in 2012 (one of Victoria’s all-time weakest sales years)
* Even with 2011 (one of Victoria’s all-time weakest sales years)
* Only 5% higher than in 2010
* – 35% lower than in 2009 (during the financial crisis)
* – 11% lower than in 2008 (that was like a decade ago)
* – 34% lower than in 2007 (than was like over a decade ago)
* – 23% lower than in 2006 (9 years before Victoria “changed forever” in 2015)

Victoria just posted its second lowest June SFH sales total for the data available on the local board‘s site.

This comparison includes the years 2011, 2012 and 2013 which posted some of the lowest SFH sales totals on record since 1984 when Victoria had like one McDonald’s.

This follows last month’s nasty eye-opener which saw Victoria post its second lowest May SFH sales total for the data available on the local board’s site.

#2 Smoking Man on 07.08.18 at 3:48 pm

Capital has wings.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-06/state-new-jersey-just-signed-its-own-death-warrant

#3 Niagara Region on 07.08.18 at 3:53 pm

NEW STATS FOR RE SALES IN JUNE 2018

New stats for Burlington real estate sales in June 2018:
http://torontorealestatecharts.com/2018/07/07/june-2018-detached-burlington/

Click in various places on the webpage for data on other types of housing and for other cities in the Toronto region (If June 2018 data for your preferred city in the Toronto region is not yet up, it should be shortly.)

#4 232 on 07.08.18 at 3:56 pm

Hi Garth,
Do you have any updates regarding the public getting access to MLS data? I know the cartel is fighting hard to keep that data, but haven’t heard anything lately.

#5 georgist on 07.08.18 at 4:18 pm

I saw this idea that BoC will stop at “neutral” on ratespy earlier also.

Nope. BoC will stop when the FED stops. And not before.

They wouldn’t even be raising at all right now if the FED had not raised.

I disagree. The bank wants to normalize rates since cheap money has blown a giant housing bubble and enslaved the populace. That spells risk. – Garth

#6 Hard Landing Markets on 07.08.18 at 4:22 pm

#1 – Entire Lower Mainland (-31% projection by 2020)
#2 – Victoria (-35% projection by 2020)
#3 – Kelowna (-42% projection by 2020)

The GTA is going to thrive because a revived industry has headed their way – diverted BC money laundering through real estate.

#7 Bruce on 07.08.18 at 4:22 pm

Canada’s prosperity, built on personal liberty and self-determination, is crumbling. Canadians just don’t know it yet.

But a new reality has dawned.

Citizens have borrowed irresponsibly, and as rates rise they will be backed into a corner with nowhere to turn. Too late they will realize that debt is slavery. The borrower is the servant of the lender.

More than this, however, no one in Canada’s leadership (neither courts nor government) has respect for the Constitution. A nation’s prosperity is dependent on a recognition of liberty, including freedom of speech, freedom of association, and freedom of religion. Canada is becoming an oppressor in these areas, not a defender.

Prosperity rises and falls with a recognition and respect for personal liberty.

#8 Can't wait for those cheap variable rates to rise on 07.08.18 at 4:25 pm

Those rising variable and fixed rates are a real estate market killer.

Even dumb people can see the risk right now, hence the sudden loss of interest in real estate.

The only interest in real estate these days is the entertainment of an epic market meltdown that is underway.

#9 Rates Jacking - The US ain't Screwing Around on 07.08.18 at 4:28 pm

Inflation is on fire in the US and they are going all out with rate hikes.

#10 Dippers = Lowering Your Cost of Living on 07.08.18 at 4:32 pm

Your local NDP making BC affordable again.

Unlike the crooked Liberals who will never get my vote again for as long as I live.

#11 Gyga on 07.08.18 at 4:33 pm

GTA is crazy expensive
Not sure what it will require to make a haircut of 25-30% to make it look more normal

#12 akashic record on 07.08.18 at 4:50 pm

The bank wants to normalize rates since cheap money has blown a giant housing bubble and enslaved the populace. That spells risk. – Garth

If BoC was so concerned about the risk of enslaved populace it would have stepped in before the enslavement happened.

It didn’t, because the BoC is not concerned – arguably not even mandated – about the enslavement of the populace, it is concerned about being in sync with the FED.

BoC is about risk of capital, not risk of enslavement of populace.

The risk of indebted households is to the economy and capital markets. – Garth

#13 Westcdn on 07.08.18 at 4:54 pm

I am hoping for a France / England showdown for the world cup (presumptuous). Bring on the traditional war. Both sides look good. I am very long French heritage although I can only utter a few phases. My father was no help and used French as a secret code. But then I am okay to only butcher English language. My heart goes with France and winning against Belgium is a tough task, never mind the English.

I am guessing hard on future Cdn interest rates on how far they will rise. I am betting not much, say 1%. Most depends on what Trump does – does he want us as a friend or not? I can agree to give up a few jobs and stupid policies but don’t expect me to like it and not push back. I think Canada is noble but don’t count on me to support things that don’t make sense to me. I will also champion Alberta interests in my own ways.

Would have I have done better with a financial advisor? Given the small player that I am, the managed 1.25% ETF is a bite. I am willing to challenge that I can do better on my own until I succumb to old age. I have learned a few things about investing and taken hard knocks. I despise failure and having to eat a lot of crow (it is nutritious). Luck is something I can’t control yet there seems to be a force that wants to keep me around. I learned time can be my friend and free lunches are a trap. I don’t think trust is like candy that one can buy to hand out. Such is the life of an introvert and contrarian who likes Savary Island – I was raised a coast boy in the area and now an Albertan. Bring Cash can keep it…

#14 Mark on 07.08.18 at 5:01 pm

Guess the positivity lasted only one blog? Garth, you do know that housing sales are picking up steam. What is this downturn you speak of? I just don’t see it. Try the positive blog momentum for a full week. You may surprise yourself and you’d be right more often.

Sales nationally are not picking up steam. – Garth

#15 Zapstrap on 07.08.18 at 5:04 pm

Some good deals on slightly used cars out here in LaLaLand right now … no rust … house prices dropping too … no lust …

#16 islander on 07.08.18 at 5:04 pm

https://www.straight.com/news/1099146/open-letter-attorney-general-david-eby-and-investigator-peter-german-bcs-dirty-money
(Not sure why this link didn’t get posted a couple of days ago – will try again.)

To Garth, for helping us ‘might be bigots’ in YVR broaden our minds and BE BE$T!

Here’s a balanced comment re the YVR real estate situation: ‘An open letter to Attorney General David Eby and investigator Peter German on B.C.’s Dirty Money report, by Ng Weng Hoong.

Many salient points, including:
“Why has Mr. Eby not considered other factors responsible for Vancouver’s housing price surge over the past decade? He has demonstrated little interest in discussing the impact of prolonged low interest rates, municipal and provincial government regulations, strong domestic demand, B.C.’s strong economy, the intergenerational transfer of wealth, and a host of other factors. Are these forces irrelevant to the housing market in Metro Vancouver?”

#17 islander on 07.08.18 at 5:05 pm

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/vancouver/article-recycled-listings-around-vancouver-obscure-a-major-market-correction/

“Skewed data are also failing to give the consumer at large a proper understanding of the housing market, particularly the market for detached houses – which has been undergoing a severe correction since 2016. That market is at a near 30-year low in Vancouver, according to realtor Steve Saretsky. “It’s pretty insane how this hasn’t received any headlines.”

Round and round and round we go!

#18 MSM-Free Zone on 07.08.18 at 5:47 pm

#2 Smoking Man on 07.08.18 at 3:48 pm
Capital has wings.
“….Two years ago, New Jersey’s richest resident – hedge fund billionaire David Tepper – decided to move himself and his business to Miami Beach.
“…Tepper, who personally earned more than $6 billion from 2012-2015, was tired of paying New Jersey’s top income-tax rate of 8.97% for the 20 years he lived there……..”
_________________________________

Given that we’re traditionally granted a mere 75 years(+/-) of life on the planet (with the possible exception of Smoking Man who appears to be galacticly ageless), what kind of moron worries about a few million in taxes after earning 6 billion in 3 years?

The 60-year old Tepper, whose current net with is reported to be around $18,000,000,000, would have to spend over $1 million/day for the next 40 years until age 100 just to break even.

With thinking like that, no wonder America is settling in for decades of Trump-induced class warfare.

#19 georgist on 07.08.18 at 5:51 pm

> I disagree. The bank wants to normalize rates since cheap money has blown a giant housing bubble and enslaved the populace. That spells risk. – Garth

BoC seem to want to raise rates, but the FED started first, and we have to follow. Therefore we can never really know if BoC are constructing a narrative post-reality or not.

That wasn’t my point though. My point is that when the FED raise BoC *have* to follow, whether they think it’s warranted or not.

And if the FED raise about the BoC “neutral” rate, say to 4.5%, BoC will have to go to at least 4%.

Therefore the BoC are not in the driving seat. They don’t get to decide if they stop at neutral.

#20 georgist on 07.08.18 at 5:53 pm

> “It’s pretty insane how this hasn’t received any headlines.”

Newspapers are dying. They get almost all their money from advertising. The main advertisers are:

* realtors
* banks

Newspapers are not “the news”. That died some time ago.

#21 Big assumption made on 07.08.18 at 5:53 pm

Invest and the markets continue to
Lag ?

Barely in the black

#22 Stan Brooks on 07.08.18 at 5:56 pm


I disagree. The bank wants to normalize rates since cheap money has blown a giant housing bubble and enslaved the populace. That spells risk. – Garth

The time to act was 10 years ago.
Quite on the money for enslaving the populace.

========================

#11 Gyga on 07.08.18 at 4:33 pm
GTA is crazy expensive
Not sure what it will require to make a haircut of 25-30% to make it look more normal

Quite a premium to pay for a city with nothing to do, with horrible weather but hey, this sheeple is stupid, big time.

#23 Stan Brooks on 07.08.18 at 6:00 pm

Living in this city requires paying a hefty premium:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/toronto/article-as-gun-violence-spikes-toronto-faces-a-reckoning-on-the-root-causes/

Of course, no associations/comparison with Detroit in the mind of the sheeple.

#24 Saver on 07.08.18 at 6:21 pm

I don’t see the problem with higher prices for everything; as a society and as a world, we will be more careful about whether something is a need or a want; one doesn’t need the latest phone, the latest car, the latest fashion, etc.
Protectionism is better than free trade. Want to be helpful to the earth, consume less. Why can’t people who like the environment or talk sustainability do that?

#25 Dean on 07.08.18 at 6:29 pm

What should I do?? Finances are in order, balanced and diversified, and I’m buying a nice house in a great location. Should I take the variable at prime -1 or go fixed rate? I can afford the additional payments as prime increases but it sounds like I may save money by locking it in over the 5 year term. Advice would be greatly appreciated. Thanks!

#26 Nonplused on 07.08.18 at 6:39 pm

I wonder how the BoC calculates the effect of tax increases on inflation? For example, the price of gasoline in Calgary just hit $1.40 a liter partially because of refinery outages but also partly because of the new carbon tax. Nutley got lucky with the timing when she introduced them because energy prices were at decade long lows but now as the price of oil creeps towards $80 you can see the effect at the pump and you will on your utility bills this winter too. And of course as we know the price of energy affects the price of everything, so that’ll all go higher too.

The tax rate affects the price of everything, whether it be income taxes, sales taxes, carbon taxes, or tariffs, it’ll all gets baked into what people have to pay for goods and services. But I have to admit I don’t know how BoC policy interacts with tax policy. The taxes mean people have less money to go around already, so do you need to raise rates? Yet the price of everything goes up because of the taxes, so that looks like inflation, which under normal circumstances would lead to higher rates. But the people don’t have the money to pay the higher rates because they just had all their money taxed away.

To me it looks like the perfect storm. Higher energy prices, higher taxes, higher interest rates, all at the same time. How we can not be forecasting a recession (at least in Canada) at this point is beyond me. Sure, we are seeing some growth, but to me it doesn’t look like enough and spending must slow down. A 3.6% salary increase in Alberta would barely cover the carbon taxes, which have to be paid with after income tax money in the first place, so they are a tax on a tax.

I guess we shall see, but it seems to me our politicians don’t have any idea what they are doing. That’s probably always the case at all times and in all places but this stuff is happening too fast for the system to adjust.

#27 georgist on 07.08.18 at 6:47 pm

Garth – did Bank of Canada take over your site’s back end?

If your database were a horse they’d have shot it a few hours back!

I have no idea what that means. My back end looks great. Sinewy. – Garth

#28 Moh on 07.08.18 at 6:47 pm

Thanks for the post Garth. Your blog has become an saving grace every time I am told that I am worthless by my parents because I didn’t buy a house. Just this afternoon I left sad and depressed because I had to sit through listening to my parents ranting on my cousins buying properties and they are very rich in comparison to me. I work on bay street as a it Analyst making decent coin. Tomorrow I have a big interview for a job that pays six figures. But for some reason in the eyes of my parents that’s not good enough. Sometimes I feel that if I was low life but had a house I would get the respect I deserve.

So leave home. Problem solved. – Garth

#29 PeterfromCalgary on 07.08.18 at 6:54 pm

Regardless of if Trump puts on a tariff or not the Ontario Auto industry is going to decline. What auto executive would risk investing in maintaining or building Ontario auto plants when it risks being a stranded asset due to possible tariffs? Also Michigan is a right to work state now so that has got to factor in to their investment decision making process.

My guess is Trump does not put on auto tariffs as they would cause problems for US auto makers. Instead Trump will let the fear of tariffs bring those jobs from Ontario and Mexico to the USA. When voters in the US rust belt see plants close or decline in Mexico and Canada and boom in Michigan and Ohio they will be supporting Trump.

#30 MF on 07.08.18 at 6:55 pm

22 Stan Brooks on 07.08.18 at 5:56 pm

“Quite a premium to pay for a city with nothing to do, with horrible weather but hey, this sheeple is stupid, big time.”

-The weather in the GTA has been hot, dry and beautiful since about early May.

Tons of people outside enjoying it in every way. The city is absolutely booming.

Your post proves you are a troll. I actually don’t think you have never even been to the GTA. If not, and you actually live here, you must be actively trying to be miserable and not enjoy yourself.

MF

#31 BillM on 07.08.18 at 6:58 pm

In the event of tariffs, just do not buy cars made in the USA if can be avoided. (I know I will not). Put a tariff on all cars from the USA. Its a big world, there are lots of other options, cars made in Canada and imports from Japan, South Korea etc. etc. The void will be filled. The biggest selling vehicle in the USA not counting trucks is the Toyota Rav4, (400K) made at 2 plants in Ontario. How is that going to work out ? Move next model year 2020 to the USA ? No easy answers but when Trump gets the boot things will return to some sort of sanity.

#32 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 07.08.18 at 7:02 pm

#2 Smoking Man on 07.08.18 at 3:48 pm
Capital has wings.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-06/state-new-jersey-just-signed-its-own-death-warrant

——————

“Capital has wings.”

Yeah no kidding Smoking Man. It’s almost like the billionaire globalist elites that you worship, serve and obey can hoard trillions offshore while the middle class plebs get stuck paying the damn taxes.

It’s hilarious how you try to pretend to hate George Soros when in all practicality, you are a servant for him.

The ultrawealthy have 10% of global GDP stashed in tax havens — and it’s making inequality worse than it appears
http://www.businessinsider.com/wealthy-money-offshore-makes-inequality-look-even-worse

#33 Blue Steel on 07.08.18 at 7:10 pm

DELETED

#34 Niagara Region on 07.08.18 at 7:19 pm

NEW STATS FOR TORONTO RE FOR JUNE 2018

Click here for Toronto RE sales, inventory, prices for June 2018:
http://torontorealestatecharts.com/2018/07/08/june-2018-detached-city-of-toronto/

This webpage also contains current RE data for other cities surrounding Toronto.

#35 Long-Time Lurker on 07.08.18 at 7:31 pm

#16 islander on 07.08.18 at 5:04 pm
https://www.straight.com/news/1099146/open-letter-attorney-general-david-eby-and-investigator-peter-german-bcs-dirty-money

(Not sure why this link didn’t get posted a couple of days ago – will try again.)

To Garth, for helping us ‘might be bigots’ in YVR broaden our minds and BE BE$T!

Some withering questions there:

https://www.straight.com/news/1099146/open-letter-attorney-general-david-eby-and-investigator-peter-german-bcs-dirty-money

The Dirty Money report alleges that mostly Chinese gangs and gamblers, helped by a dysfunctional Canadian regulatory system, are engaged in “large scale” transnational laundering of dirty money through Metro Vancouver’s casinos.

According to Mr. Eby, their criminal activities have simultaneously caused Vancouver’s housing bubble, fentanyl crisis, and gangland activities. Mr. German states that the “Vancouver Model” has laundered in excess of $100 million over a decade. This works out to an average of more than $10 million a year.

1. Mr. Eby and the media have been describing an alarming scenario of Vancouver being enveloped by an out-of-control money-laundering crisis. To put this $10 million sum in perspective, BC’s cannabis market—legal and illegal—is estimated to be worth between $2 and $7 billion a year. How does $10 million a year fit with Mr. Eby’s description of this as a “mind-blowing” and “large-scale” crisis?

2. Should Mr. German investigate the cannabis industry for possible money laundering and gangland connections? As this industry has been in existence for much longer than the Chinese gamblers at River Rock Casino, its “practitioners” have a far better established network and business model. How did so many cannabis shops proliferate throughout Metro Vancouver in such a short time? Who is financing them, and would Mr. German investigate if criminal money is being laundered through these operations?

3. The Dirty Money report makes little mention of motorcycle gangs and criminal organizations in laundering money and buying real estate. Why is that? Organized crime has always been known to own real estate. This has been happening in Metro Vancouver for decades, long before the arrival of wealthy Chinese. Will Mr. Eby look into Vancouver’s own homegrown gangs and their money-laundering activities and real-estate dealings?

4. According to the B.C. Real Estate Association, the total value of homes sold in Metro Vancouver last year was $48.9 billion. In 2016, it was $53.3 billion. The $10 million in laundered money represents equal or less than 0.02 percent of both amounts. Mr. Eby has repeatedly claimed that laundered money has fuelled Vancouver’s “housing crisis”. Can he explain how $10 million is able to move a market 5,000 times as large?

#36 pay your taxes on 07.08.18 at 7:37 pm

Yes, wages are risen 3.5% year/year ”

Mine only rose by half of that, and I’m a filthy government worker. Time to wildcat and break out the burning barrel!

#37 Art Vandelay on 07.08.18 at 7:39 pm

I’ve really been thinking of unloading my condo and renting. Maybe it’s time to pull the trigger

#38 fake news on 07.08.18 at 7:40 pm

Stan Brooks on 07.08.18 at 6:00 pm
Living in this city requires paying a hefty premium:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/toronto/article-as-gun-violence-spikes-toronto-faces-a-reckoning-on-the-root-causes/

Of course, no associations/comparison with Detroit in the mind of the sheeple.

your’re the sheeple-you believe the globe, ha ha
ps the TO police budget is over a billion

#39 When Will They Raise Rates? on 07.08.18 at 8:11 pm

Soft landing? Naw… I think we ain’t seen nothing yet…

Ross Kay – who correctly called the Vancouver peak months before the media began reporting it – now says that GTA RE is in “free fall”.

#40 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.08.18 at 8:12 pm

@#36 pay my taxes (for your wage)

“Mine only rose by half of that, and I’m a filthy government worker.”
+++++
Not to worry. Poor thing.

Your paltry 1.5% “cost of living” wage increase will be more than offset by the taxpayer topped up (50%tax payer funded?) garanteed pension you’ll draw

#41 Saint Herb on 07.08.18 at 8:17 pm

I always heard that cottage prices drop before house prices, as people dump the recreational property when the heloc they used to buy starts to squeeze them.

Any sign of that yet?

#42 The Boulder on 07.08.18 at 8:19 pm

There is certain overvaluation in big markets. Last years provincial measures deflated some pressure. If that was not the case, mortgage rate increase would have made greater impact.
Even NDP’s more taxes can’t kill a dead cat more after it is dead ( It is not dead yet, Vancouver is way overvalued ). Here in Toronto, Ford might give some steroids to local market.

#43 Father Knows Best on 07.08.18 at 8:36 pm

#16 islander on 07.08.18 at 5:04 pm
https://www.straight.com/news/1099146/open-letter-attorney-general-david-eby-and-investigator-peter-german-bcs-dirty-money
Yes the article you mention in the George straight was very good and balanced. But just try writing anything nice about in the comments section. The non-believers will on you like white on rice.

#44 georgist on 07.08.18 at 8:42 pm

> I always heard that cottage prices drop before house prices

In Quebec anecdotally I’d guess most cottages are owned by boomers. They are not going to be dropping due to the heloc, but rather due to dropping dead.

I think cottage prices are going one way.

#45 Newcomer on 07.08.18 at 8:45 pm

#39 When Will They Raise Rates? on 07.08.18

Ross Kay – who correctly called the Vancouver peak months before the media began reporting it – now says that GTA RE is in “free fall”.

——-

Ross Kay says some interesting things, but he is a charlatan who claims to have a proprietary crystal ball.

#40 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.08.18 at 8:12 pm

#46 toronto1 on 07.08.18 at 9:22 pm

People should heed Garths warning about rates rising

in my opinion, rates will rise faster then most people think is possible. they will also go higher then most people think is possible.

just a reminder back in July 2007 before the financial calamity, the BoC overnight rate was at 4.5%, today it is at 1.25%, it actually hovered around the 5% point (plus-minus) from 2000-2007 until the financial storm hit.

At some point the bond vigilantes will rise again and at that point rates will rise hard and fast.

#47 BlorgDorg on 07.08.18 at 9:36 pm

House across the street in Markham (L3P):

Listed Jan/18: $1.33M
Listed Mar/18: $950K
Listed Jul/18: $1.29M with a new agent

Denial among sellers is alive and well. They expect to get early 2017 prices and if they don’t, it must be the realtor’s fault. This is so much fun to watch.

#48 Moh on 07.08.18 at 9:38 pm

I left home a few years ago. I rent an apartment. The constant battle with my parents is that I’m stupid for renting. Back in 2016 I was literally days away from buying a home. However I lost my job. I eventually found a job but I learned from here that would be financial suicide. I guess some force saved me from making a mistake and buying a home.

#49 Shawn Allen on 07.08.18 at 9:50 pm

Loud Belch

40 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.08.18 at 8:12 pm
@#36 pay my taxes (for your wage)

“Mine only rose by half of that, and I’m a filthy government worker.”
+++++
Not to worry. Poor thing.

Your paltry 1.5% “cost of living” wage increase will be more than offset by the taxpayer topped up (50%tax payer funded?) garanteed pension you’ll draw

************************************
Well, that was the deal when he was hired by the government… Actually the Federal pension has been more like 65% taxpayer funded I believe.

Most provincial government pension plans are 50/ 50 employer and employee.

Anyhow my flatulent friend … (loud) Belch.

#50 Linda on 07.08.18 at 9:51 pm

Garth, can you clarify the ‘more borrowing, less spending’ comment in your post today? If people are spending less, what would cause them to borrow more? About the only reason I can think of is to maintain a living beyond their means lifestyle. With all the credit tightening going on, surely there must be a point where people won’t be able to borrow ‘more’?

#51 Fish on 07.08.18 at 9:53 pm

Bridging North America to build Gordie Howe International Bridge
BY DALSON CHEN, WINDSOR STAR
ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED: JUL 6, 2018

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/windsorstar.com/news/local-news/bridging-north-america-will-build-gordie-howe-international-bridge/amp

#52 april on 07.08.18 at 9:56 pm

#45- don’t know but a few people who have checked his track record have found him to be right on.

#53 Dolce Vita on 07.08.18 at 10:24 pm

There will be no soft landing.

Your Blog points today report a rapidly deteriorating RE market in YVR and 416 et. al. Sales drop now, Prices soon to come (soon, as in months). The rest of the Cdn. RE markets will suffer too, relative to the size of their respective bubble.

“XXXX…employment levels were at an all-time high and unemployment rates were near historic lows in Canada.”

Reads like your recent Blogs Garth about how all is fine in Canada due to jobs, economic growth, unerring BoC, etc.

EXCEPT, replace the above XXXX with:

“For an extended period of time until October 2008,”

From the inconvenient historians at StatCan: “Canada’s employment downturn”.

Almost forgot, Self-Employment increased 4% then, a lot when it is measured in millions (you know, like the June Labour Force Survey where most of the job growth came from, 22,000 of the 32,000 net jobs created).

Conveniently over looked by our Math & Test of English as a First Language challenged MSM.

No one wants their apple cart upset, but it just happens.

And it happens fast, not slow…as always.

Saying soft or slow has never made it such.

#54 AB Boxster on 07.08.18 at 10:32 pm

The estimate of additional cost per vehicle to Canadian consumers: $9000.

————————————

So I get why it could cost more to buy an American car if all manufacturing went to the US from Canada and Mexico.

But why would it cost more to buy a car from Japan, Korea, Germany, etc?

Canada will not be putting tariffs on cars from these countries, though the Americans might.

Why would these cars cost more in Canada?

#55 Reality is stark on 07.08.18 at 10:33 pm

A real estate purchase in the last couple years is a long slow painful death.
When the opportunity cost is factored in your losses are frightening.
It really is a lousy way to die overpaying for an asset with a potential job redundancy on the horizon as a result of international tariffs.
Buying when prices are high is stupid. It is a bad bet if you are playing the odds. You have only yourself to blame. This blog is here to protect you from the herd mentality.
Another question to ask yourself. The average man with children loses three quarters of his wealth in divorce. The divorce rate is 52%. Women are now just as likely to cheat as men.
Would you marry because everyone else does?
Same reason why you shouldn’t buy a house.
The odds are not in your favour.

#56 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.08.18 at 10:51 pm

@#44 georgist
“In Quebec anecdotally I’d guess most cottages are owned by boomers. They are not going to be dropping due to the heloc, but rather due to dropping dead.”

+++++++

I’ll be sure to warn my Boomer friends in the Beauce

#57 Dolce Vita on 07.08.18 at 10:55 pm

U.S. exports to China were only $130 billion while imports from China were $506 billion.

$34 Billion in tariffed goods/services is just the starting point. Trump wins that one easily as the Chinese will run out of poker chips long before he does. Pretty much bravado from the outgunned Chinese.

“Statistics Canada data show it’s Canada with the surplus in goods and services, totaling C$18.8 billion ($14.6 billion) last year. That’s a $22.3 billion difference…” – Bloomberg (not exactly a right wing outfit).

Yet again, Trump holding all the playing cards.

And if he has started a trade war with China to get what he wants, surely he will do the same to Canada.

Saying it’s not so, will not make it so.

Not a snowballs hope in hell.

Not even Ford Nation can save ON then, nor what is left of their bubble RE market (and if Trump makes good on his threat and I expect he will, well, at least Ford Nation will make that bottle of beer easier to buy to wash away the ills of the World).

Ford then will have had his priorities correct.

#58 NoName on 07.08.18 at 11:11 pm

funny

A man tried to light his cigarette with the flames coming from his burning sedan after rear-ending an SUV westbound on Interstate 80, according to the California Highway Patrol traffic incident information page.

https://www.sacbee.com/news/local/crime/article214537559.html

#59 Tom from Mississauga on 07.08.18 at 11:41 pm

Just found out about the Six on Friday. What is that a Drake thing?

#60 westcoastguy on 07.08.18 at 11:57 pm

Is it too much to ask that such an unprecedented rise in values have an equally significant decline?

Forget this slow melt nonsense. We need to go all in this time make it one for the history books.

Hopefully this will save the next generation if there is one as there are news stories out there now saying that birth rates are declining cause couples are not financially secure.

#61 Nonplused on 07.09.18 at 12:37 am

#24 Saver

What meds are you on? I want some. Paying more for stuff is not the goal of economics. Getting more for less is. Sure, we can argue that at some point we have to reign it in and think about the environment (probably 30 years ago) but the idea that we can achieve happiness by making everything more expensive goes counter to every economic and psychological theory that ever was presented. Even Karl Marx was after more for the workers, only at the expense of the capitalists. But there were more workers, many more, so he was just marketing more to the masses. He never suggested they should close the factories and live in mud huts.

Anyway if you want less, feel free. I want more. The desire for “more” has driven mankind out of the stone age and into modern living. You know who doesn’t want more? Chimpanzees. They are happy to live in the trees and let the rain fall on their heads. I am not.

The same factors that drive the economics of cell phones drove the economics behind the development of agriculture thousands of years ago. “How do we get “more” food for less effort?” Thus, farming began, we domesticated animals and tilled the fields. It wasn’t because we were happy with less. If humans could be happy with less we’d still be hunter-gatherers, shivering in the dark and hoping a lion wasn’t about to attack.

#62 Yorkville Renter on 07.09.18 at 1:10 am

#30 – MF – Yes! 100% agree.

Summer in Toronto is an amazing spectacle. Because winter sucks so large, everyone tries to make the most of it. You really do have to work hard to not enjoy and appreciate it.

#63 Smoking Man on 07.09.18 at 1:19 am

Screwed Canadian Millenial on 07.08.18 at 7:02 pm
#2 Smoking Man on 07.08.18 at 3:48 pm
Capital has wings.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-06/state-new-jersey-just-signed-its-own-death-warrant

——————

“Capital has wings.”

Yeah no kidding Smoking Man. It’s almost like the billionaire globalist elites that you worship, serve and obey can hoard trillions offshore while the middle class plebs get stuck paying the damn taxes.

It’s hilarious how you try to pretend to hate George Soros when in all practicality, you are a servant for him.

The ultrawealthy have 10% of global GDP stashed in tax havens — and it’s making inequality worse than it appears
http://www.businessinsider.com/wealthy-money-offshore-makes-inequality-look-even-worse
……..

You just don’t get it, kid. When people make big money it usually requires a substantial amount of risk. If it bombs your screwed. If it pays off you know you’re going to have to share with govt. My points is if govt puts too many restrictions on your bets, takes too much of your windfall . you’re going to seak and find business friendly places to do your thing.

It’s human nature. How much of a lottery win if you won would you give out to all your causes.
My guess zero, you would instantly turn into a capitalist, seak advice and try and make it grow.

Soros does what I do. He makes big bets in forex. But unlike me who uses Herdonomics to gage direction. He bets against countries pays off local politicians who help him destroy their own countries.

#64 Fortune500 on 07.09.18 at 1:41 am

Stats show house prices are rising again in Toronto. It is what it is.

#65 Where's The Money Greedo? on 07.09.18 at 1:45 am

Re: #35 Long-Time Lurker on 07.08.18 at 7:31 pm
#16 islander on 07.08.18 at 5:04 pm
https://www.straight.com/news/1099146/open-letter-attorney-general-david-eby-and-investigator-peter-german-bcs-dirty-money

3. The Dirty Money report makes little mention of motorcycle gangs and criminal organizations in laundering money and buying real estate. Why is that? Organized crime has always been known to own real estate. This has been happening in Metro Vancouver for decades, long before the arrival of wealthy Chinese. Will Mr. Eby look into Vancouver’s own homegrown gangs and their money-laundering activities and real-estate dealings?
++++++++++++++++++

If you don’t know, the RCMP stated when the BC Lieberals first got into office in the early 2000’s, that organized crime had infiltrated the legislature. Then they were bought off.
I’m assuming the motorcycle gangs are still there and the gov’t won’t be playing that card so they don’t end up like 100’s of other gang-bangers out here, lying in a ditch with a bullet to the brain. Better to blame the far away crime groups where they remain hidden from view. The bikers are too close to home….

#66 dosouth on 07.09.18 at 2:25 am

For all those that think the speculation tax isn’t hurting the economy in the Okanagan….this group seems to differ. Interesting reading especially the very bottom of the website page with the comment from Francis Braam, Broker/Owner of Royal LePage Kelowna (tee hee)

http://scrapthespeculationtax.ca/

#67 Smoking Man on 07.09.18 at 2:34 am

DELETED

#68 Stan Brooks on 07.09.18 at 4:15 am


#38 fake news on 07.08.18 at 7:40 pm

your’re the sheeple-you believe the globe, ha ha
ps the TO police budget is over a billion

You pay for it, getting nothing in return.
Did you read the article in the link? It talks about widely spreading poverty in GTA.
Poor city can not have high house prices.

=======================

#30 MF on 07.08.18 at 6:55 pm
22 Stan Brooks on 07.08.18 at 5:56 pm

“Quite a premium to pay for a city with nothing to do, with horrible weather but hey, this sheeple is stupid, big time.”

-The weather in the GTA has been hot, dry and beautiful since about early May.

Tons of people outside enjoying it in every way. The city is absolutely booming.

Your post proves you are a troll. I actually don’t think you have never even been to the GTA. If not, and you actually live here, you must be actively trying to be miserable and not enjoy yourself.

MF

Last 3 winters have been very bad.
this summer is boiling hot and always humid.

Every public place in GTA is overcrowded at any time of the day/year.

Infrastructure is built for 3 millions, not 6.
Bumper to bumper in the traffic, nowhere to go in the summer, hence the status of ‘resorts’ for blue ‘mountain’ and Collingwood, where a condo is more expensive than a villa with a pool at the seaside in Spain and you get bored in exactly 30 min in the summer and 3 hours in the winter.

The crowd gathering in the malls in endless stampede,
the ‘lucky’ hit the cottage country (after 4 hours drive one way) again with absolutely nothing to do in most cases, just stay at the cottage as you paid so much for it, you got to pretend you enjoy it.

Downtown overbuilt, all new glass condos, some so close to disintegrating QEW that you can touch the cars literally.

The city is booming in credit and idiots.

‘Revitalized’ waterfront at huge cost and little to show, few hundred meters around Lakeshore.

Absolutely horrific traffic in Bramgladesh (oops Brampton even on the weekend), Vaughan, Markham.

Somehow revitalized Highway 7 after 10 years of construction can’t catch up with the traffic.

#69 Dolce Vita & England's "Flag" on 07.09.18 at 4:28 am

England, STOP using OUR flag and buck up.

The Saint George’s Cross is Genova’s and you leased it from us from 1190 AD to 1771 AD; whereupon, you stopped paying.

You flew our flag in the Mediterranean for centuries to feign protection from the then powerful Genovese navy (enemies at the mere sight of the Saint George’s Cross on a ship would turn tail the other way out of fear).

It’s time to pay up or use somebody else’s flag and NOT ours.

Besides, Italy’s GDP and Genova could use the cash.

All the best on Wednesday England (a game where I love both teams, the other 2 semi-final teams…not so much).

After the game, Genova Mayor Marco Bucci will yet again mail the invoice with accumulated interest to QE2.

#70 Scott Disanter on 07.09.18 at 6:01 am

Buzz Hargrove wanted to put tariiffs on Japanese, Korean etc. cars by more than 25%.

So who cares what Trump does.

#71 BillyBob on 07.09.18 at 6:22 am

#68 Stan Brooks on 07.09.18 at 4:15 am

Last 3 winters have been very bad.
this summer is boiling hot and always humid.

Every public place in GTA is overcrowded at any time of the day/year.

Infrastructure is built for 3 millions, not 6.
Bumper to bumper in the traffic, nowhere to go in the summer, hence the status of ‘resorts’ for blue ‘mountain’ and Collingwood, where a condo is more expensive than a villa with a pool at the seaside in Spain and you get bored in exactly 30 min in the summer and 3 hours in the winter.

The crowd gathering in the malls in endless stampede,
the ‘lucky’ hit the cottage country (after 4 hours drive one way) again with absolutely nothing to do in most cases, just stay at the cottage as you paid so much for it, you got to pretend you enjoy it.

Downtown overbuilt, all new glass condos, some so close to disintegrating QEW that you can touch the cars literally.

The city is booming in credit and idiots.

‘Revitalized’ waterfront at huge cost and little to show, few hundred meters around Lakeshore.

Absolutely horrific traffic in Bramgladesh (oops Brampton even on the weekend), Vaughan, Markham.

Somehow revitalized Highway 7 after 10 years of construction can’t catch up with the traffic.

===================================

You’re wasting your time. MF has never actually lived anywhere outside of the GTA, so he simply doesn’t know anything else. Amusingly myopic, really.

Hope he’s wearing his body armour these days. Perhaps by “booming” he was referring to gunfire and murder?

#72 Oft deleted much maligned stock.picker on 07.09.18 at 6:23 am

Don’t forget that 4 trillion dollars has been wiped out in the China crash since January..( 2 trillion in retail value off the stock market and 2 trillion from foreign exchange treasuries with the PBOC shoring up failing banks and underpinning a collapsing Yuan).

80++ % of the stock ownership in China is retail…..so lots and lots of stock market millionaires have been gutted. 2 trillion is a lot of money that won’t find it’s way out if China…including into Canadian real estate.

People I talk to in Asia tell me Chinese focused business gas dried up very quickly. Those Chinese with cash in the mattress will soon spend it and hunker down. Meaning far fewer tourists etc. Figure in the butterfly effect and make a call. I think a lot of luxury price houses will be coming on the market soon as Chinese banks have frozen loans and cash will have to be raised.

#73 IHCTD9 on 07.09.18 at 6:54 am

#54 AB Boxster on 07.08.18 at 10:32 pm
The estimate of additional cost per vehicle to Canadian consumers: $9000.

————————————

So I get why it could cost more to buy an American car if all manufacturing went to the US from Canada and Mexico.

But why would it cost more to buy a car from Japan, Korea, Germany, etc?

Canada will not be putting tariffs on cars from these countries, though the Americans might.

Why would these cars cost more in Canada?
____________________________________________

Because once the entire US auto market increases in price for Canadians, every other foreign car maker will increase their prices to us as well – just because they can. They can still be less, but they don’t need to be 20% less to sell the car.

The pressure is to get prices up, no auto manufacturer will pass on a golden opportunity like this. The big fishes set the price, the little fishes follow.

The same thing happens with steel, and I’ve watched the ebb and flow for near 25 years. Even if our government slaps a tariff on just a single major product coming from a major global producer like the USA – the price from EVERYONE also making that product floats up to that level over a year or so after inventories turn over.

You can expect this type of stuff with any product where there are only a handful of companies that make it the world over, and when prices are artificially increased through means like tariffs.

#74 MF on 07.09.18 at 7:08 am

#68 Stan Brooks on 07.09.18 at 4:15 am

-What you describe are issues that every single large populated city will have.

Is there traffic in LA? Yes.

Are people running on credit elsewhere? Of course.

And winter is a fact of life here. Complaining about it is dumb. In other parts of the world it’s hurricanes, monsoons, cyclones etc. The winter actually has positives. It prevents tropical diseases like malaria that kill millions worldwide from incubating.

To me, it sounds like you just don’t like people and will be unhappy wherever you are.

MF

#75 Victor V on 07.09.18 at 7:41 am

28% of Canadians fear bankruptcy ahead of Bank of Canada decision

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/28-of-canadians-fear-bankruptcy-ahead-of-bank-of-canada-decision-1.1104704

With just two days to go before an anticipated interest rate hike by the Bank of Canada, one of country’s top bankruptcy firms is warning a “staggering” number of Canadians are on the brink of financial disaster.

Twenty-eight per cent of respondents to a new survey, which was conducted on behalf of MNP from June 15 to June 19, said another rate increase will hurdle them toward bankruptcy, while 42 per cent say if rates rise much more they’d fear for their financial well-being. While both readings were down modestly from the previous quarterly survey, that’s not lessening the alarm.

“When you look at the staggering number of people who are teetering on the edge, it’s clear that we are going to start seeing a rise in delinquencies as rates rise,” said MNP President Grant Bazian in a release.

#76 50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE! on 07.09.18 at 8:01 am

Yet another dreadfully sad weekend has just passed, of losing sports teams and more murderous rampages in the GTA.

The Toronto/GTA is Canada’s biggest disappointment, now circling the drain.

In three months, your real estate market will be in free-fall, and your Make Beliefs will be starting a brand new losing streak.

So much to look forward to, eh……

#77 Shawn on 07.09.18 at 8:01 am

The price of Canadian real estate will likely consolidate through time (rather than direction). It’s probable that home prices in 2028 are relatively similar to today.

#78 SimplyPut7 on 07.09.18 at 8:03 am

Is this the soft landing the Bank of Canada so craves?

——————-

No.

At the end of the boom, there were too many poor domestic investors who bought homes that are now selling for less than 30% to 40% their peak price and haven’t been able to sell in the slowing housing market. These buyers can’t afford to take the loss on the property and are struggling to keep up with the housing costs on the investment property.

Take for example the area Patterson in Vaughan, ON or any home in Brampton, ON trying to sell for $1 million or more. Sellers think discounting 20k-50k will bring foreign buyers that are tired of losing money in Canadian real estate or local buyers who no longer can fake their income to buy speculative properties.

Also, at some point, the provincial and federal government is going to have to start investigating private lenders and all of the fraud in the shadow banking market. How does a home that was originally bought for $1.95 million in 2006 that sold for $3.45 million in 2018 and have $10.5 million in mortgages against the property?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DgpOvrWXUAEYYw5.jpg:large

I know none of the media outlets listed below are not ready to talk about the underlying problem with this court-ordered sale, but is 4 Birchmount Avenue in Toronto a one-off situation or as interest rates increase will these stories become the norm in larger cities in Canada?

https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2018/05/10/this-scarborough-mansion-was-just-listed-for-38-million-its-been-abandoned-for-years.html

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2018/05/10/probably-toxic-toronto-mansion-for-sale_a_23431768/

https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/3-8m-is-a-fantastic-price-for-this-mouldy-animal-infested-toronto-mansion-realtor-1.3926044

#79 jess on 07.09.18 at 8:05 am

different this time

https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2018/07/the-oil-industry-has-launched-a-preemptive-strike-over-washington-states-carbon-tax-ballot-initiative/

#80 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.09.18 at 8:23 am

British PM Theresa May’s Brexit strategy unravelling faster than even she expected?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/uk-brexit-secretary-david-davis-resigns-1.4738690

“Commie” Corbyn to be PM before the real “Brexit”?

God help them all.

Oh well, at least they have the World Cup to keep their minds off impending catastrophe…….

Bread and circuses

#81 IHCTD9 on 07.09.18 at 8:24 am

Piles of deb in both government and Citizenry, gas prices could hit 2.00/litre in a couple years in some Provinces, 15 grand more for a new truck post auto tariff, lost high paying auto jobs and all the pain that comes with that, lower revenues for government across the board, Loonie sinking sending costs rising, good paying FT job losses in just about every area of the private sector.

We’re in for a rough ride. I’m going to stick my neck out and say, at least for Ontario; I’ll never see the kind of prosperity we had in 2000-2008 in my industry ever again.

I’m going to keep my head low and race for retirement. If Trump slaps on an auto tariff, Ontario will enter an irreversible economic slump for as long as I have left to work.

From there, the Provincial Government will also see massive revenue problems. Since the last guy who knew how to fix a problem without just slapping on a new tax has evidently been dead for decades – you know what the answer will be.

Get your house in order – seriously. If you’re struggling now, you’re toast later 100%. Give yourself an honest appraisal of how long your job will last given some of the potentials out there. Honestly consider how long you’ll carry on with your current expenses, will EI cover it? How long to get an similar job? Will that even be likely to happen at all?

Those coasting blindly are going to get napalmed.

#82 TurnerNation on 07.09.18 at 8:37 am

Seen in the Globe today…

Got money troubles? Need more Gimme Dat Green?
Talk to Wild Bill. This Golden Boy’s stock price (MSI.TO) rocketed to record highs after he took office. Yee haw.

His co will dirty talk money to you online at work.
https://www.morneaushepell.com/ca-en/internet-based-cognitive-behaviour-therapy-icbt

#83 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.09.18 at 8:39 am

@#81 IHCTD9
“Those coasting blindly are going to get napalmed.”
+++++
My apologies to Robert Duval for my personal editorial changes …..but…..

“Can you smell that? Can you smell that?
I love the smell of gas in the morning…..
It smells like……victory!”

#84 dharma bum on 07.09.18 at 9:02 am

#48 Moh

The constant battle with my parents is that I’m stupid for renting.
——————————————————————–

Abandon your parents.

Stop speaking to them.

Change your phone number.

Move.

Leave no forwarding address.

Change your life. Free yourself.

Discard the cultural traditions that enslave you, and you will never regret it.

Freedom comes at a high price. Why?

Because it’s worth it.

#85 TurnerNation on 07.09.18 at 9:02 am

Stan Brooks, Billy Bob. Toronto is over Downtown is run by druggies and bums.
I heard if you report drug dealers openly dealing near your home or school the police, who are public unionistas, will not attend. Their focus is on “harm reduction” which means saving addicts in city approved Safe Injection sites run also by public unionistas. They get priority medical care. You? not so much.
We are to be milked dry us honest tax paying people.

Recent anecdotes from online on two totally different webpages unrelated:
“A hoodlum with no shirt on walks in and unprovoked starts picking a fight with 2 customers.
Store clerk picks up phone to call 911. Gets put on hold.
Hoodlum now physically pushing customers and staff
911 operator asking why she should send police – if there’s no weapons involved.
Hoodlum leaves store cursing everyone
911 dispatch sends no one
Store clerk on 911 call is tearing up and almost has a nervous breakdown!”

“Hmmm I’m a middle class worker, I pay an inordinate amount of rent, drycleaning, transportation, groceries, insurance, childcare, prescriptions, taxes just to live in a sh-thole city surrounded by junkies downtown because City Hall thought it a “good idea” to set up pop up shelters everywhere and charge me everytime I make a wrong turn onto King St. or suffer traffic hold ups because every square inch there’s a new condo development making shittier another previously cool hood thanks to gentrification. Hipster spot wants to charge me three times than McDonald’s for a f-ning sandwich. “

#86 Zed on 07.09.18 at 9:09 am

If Trump puts tariffs on canadian made cars, maybe some car makers will their operations to the U.S.

I don’t think that Canada would die just for that reason, we have more to offer the world than car making.

Australia stopped making cars 2 years ago and it is still a going concern, interresting place with good people.

Lets not fall for the bully that Trump is or “terrorism” that he inflicts on the world. We can just modify our lives around his tactics and behaviour

#87 dharma bum on 07.09.18 at 9:17 am

361 Nonplused

I want more. The desire for “more” has driven mankind out of the stone age and into modern living.
——————————————————————–

There is no greater crime than desire. ~ Lao Tzu
[Tao Te Ching chapter 46]

Those who know when they have enough are rich. ~ Lao Tzu
[Tao Te Ching chapter 33]

The continuation and intensification of desire brings about the continuation and intensification of suffering.

https://blavatskytheosophy.com/desire-the-cause-of-all-suffering/

#88 ottawa on 07.09.18 at 9:24 am

Ottawa market is on bidding war. Properties are snapped up in days (if not in hours). Any idea why?

Ottawa sales declined 4.3% year/year in June. – Garth

#89 Ian on 07.09.18 at 9:35 am

Hi I asked a question on saturdays post but worded it wrong, I should have asked what is the minimum amount of funds that you need to be taken on as a client.
Thanks

Because of the wide range of services a fee-based advisor provides (tax avoidance strategies, portfolio management, financial planning, retirement preparedness, investor protection insurance etc.) there is a minimum charge to maintain accounts. Thus it is most affordable for people with $150k or more to invest. Then the overall fee can be kept to a maximum of 1% of assets managed per year. This comes from accounts on a monthly basis (one-twelfth of one per cent), is tax-deductible on non-registered accounts and typically flows entirely from growth. – Garth

#90 BillM on 07.09.18 at 9:35 am

Hey .. I am wishing for 17.5% GICs again (I had some). Others may not be (21% morgages) . We all survived. :)

#91 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.09.18 at 9:52 am

@#85 Turner Nation
“police, who are public unionistas, will not attend”
++++++

Welcome to Vancouver.

Manys a time I have called the police for “assault in progress”, B&E in progress, etc.
If they grudgingly attend …what follows is “street justice” Kangaroo Court where upon Vancouver’s “finest” make an “on the spot decision” to arrest and charge which will take up the rest of their morning in paperwork …. so 99% of the time….the perp walks.

Two examples from several buildings I managed.
One building had a photocopy store as ground floor retail. The scam was to steal a very high end photocopier to make counterfeit “Scratch and Win” tickets. The machine was big and heavy.
The machine had been stolen twice using stolen trucks as battering rams to destroy the front glass wall.
Theft #3. Security was stationed in the lobby. 3am Monday morning. KABOOM! KABOOM ( truck smashing wall down. Security calls police. 5 minutes later thieves load copier in truck and take off. Security follows in car. Truck reaches 90 mph through empty downtown streets. Security breaks off chase drives back to building. Waits another 45 minutes until police arrive….. Give police report of what happened. Police issue ticket to security guard for “initiating an illegal pursuit”.
I asked police why response took 55 minutes. ” The Sunday night, Monday morning shift has 7 response cars…. for the entire city of Vancouver”
Criminals take note.

Case #2
Telephone store on ground floor broken into ever Sunday night at 3am. ” Smash and grab”. 4 weeks in a row a $2000 glass door was “bricked out” and the thieves hauled away dozens of new phones in their packing. Easy money.
Week #5 . Guard in lobby at 3am. SMASH! Out he goes. Door broken, thief inside filling a bag. The chase is on. Thief manages to escape out the side door and starts running up the street ( remember its 3am). The thief literally runs smack into two cops ( wait for it) walking out of Tim Hortons with coffee and donuts.
Big collision.
Cop lets perp go because the guard didn’t see the actual “break in”.
I have dozens of similar stories of……
Vancouvers finest

#92 Yorkville Renter on 07.09.18 at 10:04 am

#74 – MF – I agree with you again. Some people choose to be miserable, so don’t bother trying to reason with them. Toronto is laid-back and easy; people who complain that it’s too big, too busy or too dangerous have no idea what those things mean in a global context.

A guy who lives in Caledon has no viable opinion to offer or consider.
Someone who labels a city based on its inhabitants has a very small mind and narrow view. I’m sure those same people wish it was 1986 all over again

#93 Smoking Man on 07.09.18 at 10:07 am

SCM Money Has Wings.

https://www.facebook.com/prageru/videos/1808309292545252/

#94 IHCTD9 on 07.09.18 at 10:09 am

#91 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.09.18 at 9:52 am

I have dozens of similar stories of……
Vancouvers finest
_______

…and it’s not just Van Cops. It’s EVERYWHERE in Canada’s Public service where there are Unions and 6 figure paycheques.

That is why I skip most any permit requirement, consider by-laws as a suggestion, and generally do as I see fit when I run into useless regulatory red tape stuff. Chances of consequences are essentially zero. For me, so far; zero consequences issued for being caught twice in 17 years without permits.

Tons of rules for no reason other than revenue collection, Policed by some dude making an 80K salary and no quota. How is this supposed to end any other way?

#95 AB Boxster on 07.09.18 at 10:13 am

#73 IHCTD9 on 07.09.18 at 6:54 am

Because once the entire US auto market increases in price for Canadians, every other foreign car maker will increase their prices to us as well – just because they can.

————————————

I’m not sure I buy that argument.

Firstly, the assumption that just because a car made in the US will cost $9000 more in Canada is based upon what?

Today, Canadian labour, costs more than labour costs for building cars in the US. The Americans and everywhere else in the world can build a car for less than it is built in Canada.

So moving all Canadian production to the US will somehow raise the price of a car in Canada?
Explain how.

Yes, our dollar against the US dollar is crap, so this always has some impact.

But the argument you make would be similar to the following example..

Sony decides arbitrarily to increase the price of its TV sets in Canada by 25%.

So because the world of electronics is not subject to competitive or market forces, every other TV manufacturer is going to raise its prices accordingly.
Just for Canadians. And then Canadians have no option but to pay higher prices for these goods?

I thought that the whole globalist argument, that having production of goods occur in the cheapest country, was supposedly great for the entire world.

As well, Canada is not a captive market.
Canadians on a daily basis cross border shop to buy products in Canada on a daily basis. We buy goods from all over the world, including cars.

Oddly, cars made all over the world, still cost less to buy in America, and to have them shipped north, despite currency differences.

And products manufactured in Canada (like Bombardier ATVs) are often much more expensive to buy in Canada, than they are in the US. Despite the fact that they are made in Canada, and then shipped to the US.

My point is this.

Maybe Canada should not be in the car manufacturing business at all.

I mean if Canada had a specific current economic advantage at manufacturing cars, would there not be a Canadian industry that would do this regardless of the American companies?

And according to the globalist mantra, if Canadians are not competitive at building cars (which is why much of the manufacturing has gone to Mexico and southern US States-where labour costs are far lower) then why should Canada have a car industry at all?

Yes, they are great well paying jobs.
Yes, the industry makes up a huge proportion of GDP in Ontario.
Yes, it would be a huge blow to the Canadian economy.

I suspect that if all vehicle manufacturing were to move from Canada to the US, the Canadian economy would take a huge hit, but that Canadians would pay competitive prices for vehicles that are manufactured all over the world, as the market is today.

And, if one is a true globalist zealot, and believes in the religious mantra of the manufacturing of goods going to the cheapest country, so that the rest of us can benefit from the cheap goods in return (as is the historical case for manufacturing of pretty much everything else that has moved offshore from Canada in the past) then why is this any different for auto manufacturing in Ontario?

No one shed a tear for our loss of manufacturing of every other product that went to Japan, Taiwan, Korea, China, India, Indonesia etc etc.

Every other commodity in Canada, (except for protected dairy farmers) has to compete directly with every other country in the world.

Grain farmers, wine producers, oil producers, forestry,(lets not get into Bombardier) etc, etc, etc.

Maybe Canada no longer has a competitive advantage in building cars.
Maybe Canadians would pay less for their cars in the end.
Sure we would lose some of the best paying jobs in Canada and there would be massive disruption in the east.

But isn’t this just another example of the market doing its work, in the great globalist experiment that has been foisted on the world.

#96 Smoking Man on 07.09.18 at 10:33 am

Highest ever recorded temperature in Canada.
Notice none in the last 50 years. Say no to Carbon Tax. It’s a scan.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_extreme_temperatures_in_Canada

#97 Robert Ash on 07.09.18 at 10:39 am

What is frustrating me is the lack of Common sense, from our Leaders, and it is scary. If you factor in that JT, is so obtuse, he would hobble the number one export in Canada. Why are the Saudis so rich, what was that? Or the Norwegians, why are they so affluent, or the UAE, or you guessed, it… it is Oil, we have a lot, but not a lot of smart people at the Helm. It is really sad for the Young folks, but they have the Voting numbers. Please vote for Politicians, in the Future, with only Business Training. We can have a Social department, that focuses on Policy and Improving life for the less fortunate, financially or those challenged with Disabilities. We need to carve out a Business, focus, and prioritize the mandate, to operate with GAAP. Without this change, we will lose to other countries, and jurisdictions, which will elect, vote or assign Business knowledgeable folks, who can do the job..Look at the Mess created by Wynne, who rides into the Sunset, with her failed and ridiculous policies, moving on South likely.. Costa Rica… sad about those Canucks, still in Southern Ontario, … I didn’t study Finance in Uni… I was a Masters of Teaching… and Stupidity… but we pick up the pieces, for folks, that have inherently about 40% support… And look at the BC mess…. An individual or two, can upset the whole process, and hobble the entire country, for well… Stupidity… Sad… We have to change this…

#98 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 07.09.18 at 11:00 am

ottawa on 07.09.18 at 9:24 am
Ottawa market is on bidding war. Properties are snapped up in days (if not in hours). Any idea why?

Ottawa sales declined 4.3% year/year in June. – Garth

—————————————————————

You SHYSTSERS are lowest form of scum. You try to deceive people and distort reality. Stick with the news media who you can pay to lie for you.

#99 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.09.18 at 11:01 am

Chaos over Brexit.
Davis and Johson gone.
The birth place of Capitalism on the brink.
Only a World Cup win can save them now.

#100 Tony on 07.09.18 at 11:03 am

Re: #76 50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE!

The problem with the Toronto Maple Leafs is conditioning. They’ve always been out of shape since the early 1980’s and fall apart every 3rd period. Mats Sundin was the only player the Leafs had that was in shape in the last 30 to 40 years.

#101 NoName on 07.09.18 at 11:04 am

@ dharma bum

Now that you always art of war, we were on a way home from our well deserved vacaton we stopped by wife’s cousin in NC, 5 great kids one wants to be doctor, secon is all.geard up to be nurse practitioner and other 3are just to young to know…
Anyway second oldest kid (one who wans to be doctor), is one of those kids that is super smart, likes to read, so I aks him what is he reading now, and guess what, he takes me to his room and shows me lao’s thzu Art of War… So next thing I asked him to show me his 3 favorite books, some novel that I can’t remember what was and second one was history book.

Anyway I left him some money probably enough to buy 6-7 hard cover books, and I told him first thing to do is to buy and Freakonomics, Thinking fast & slow and
10% Entrepreneur, and what ever is left to pick what he likes.

Kids like him will MAGA, not orange octopus.

#102 Penny Henny on 07.09.18 at 11:06 am

#74 MF on 07.09.18 at 7:08 am
#68 Stan Brooks on 07.09.18 at 4:15 am

To me, it sounds like you just don’t like people and will be unhappy wherever you are.

MF
/////////////

That’s Stan alright!
The only person who is unhappier than Stan is his wife!

#103 James on 07.09.18 at 11:18 am

#63 Smoking Man on 07.09.18 at 1:19 am
Screwed Canadian Millenial on 07.08.18 at 7:02 pm
#2 Smoking Man on 07.08.18 at 3:48 pm
Capital has wings.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-06/state-new-jersey-just-signed-its-own-death-warrant

——————
“Capital has wings.”
Yeah no kidding Smoking Man. It’s almost like the billionaire globalist elites that you worship, serve and obey can hoard trillions offshore while the middle class plebs get stuck paying the damn taxes.
It’s hilarious how you try to pretend to hate George Soros when in all practicality, you are a servant for him.
The ultrawealthy have 10% of global GDP stashed in tax havens — and it’s making inequality worse than it appears
http://www.businessinsider.com/wealthy-money-offshore-makes-inequality-look-even-worse
……..
You just don’t get it, kid. When people make big money it usually requires a substantial amount of risk. If it bombs your screwed. If it pays off you know you’re going to have to share with govt. My points is if govt puts too many restrictions on your bets, takes too much of your windfall . you’re going to seak and find business friendly places to do your thing.
It’s human nature. How much of a lottery win if you won would you give out to all your causes.
My guess zero, you would instantly turn into a capitalist, seak advice and try and make it grow.
Soros does what I do. He makes big bets in forex. But unlike me who uses Herdonomics to gage direction. He bets against countries pays off local politicians who help him destroy their own countries.
__________________________________________
Isn’t that exactly what you are always quipping about here. The destruction of Canada? So you are a George Soros protege.
BTW how do you like the AB-375 that came into effect. It was too late for you as your already in the system, ha that was interesting.
https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtml?bill_id=201720180AB375

#104 Pre-retiree on 07.09.18 at 11:42 am

re: #88 Ottawa
Ottawa market is on bidding war. Properties are snapped up in days (if not in hours). Any idea why?

Ottawa sales declined 4.3% year/year in June. – Garth
_________________

Garth, I am interested in the Ottawa market.
Could you please tell me what your source is?

Thanks

Ottawa real estate board. – Garth

#105 Vanzo on 07.09.18 at 11:53 am

I read that GTA prices are going up again and sales are heating up. Is that true?

#106 Tater on 07.09.18 at 11:58 am

#71 BillyBob on 07.09.18 at 6:22 am
#68 Stan Brooks on 07.09.18 at 4:15 am

Last 3 winters have been very bad.
this summer is boiling hot and always humid.

Every public place in GTA is overcrowded at any time of the day/year.

Infrastructure is built for 3 millions, not 6.
Bumper to bumper in the traffic, nowhere to go in the summer, hence the status of ‘resorts’ for blue ‘mountain’ and Collingwood, where a condo is more expensive than a villa with a pool at the seaside in Spain and you get bored in exactly 30 min in the summer and 3 hours in the winter.

The crowd gathering in the malls in endless stampede,
the ‘lucky’ hit the cottage country (after 4 hours drive one way) again with absolutely nothing to do in most cases, just stay at the cottage as you paid so much for it, you got to pretend you enjoy it.

Downtown overbuilt, all new glass condos, some so close to disintegrating QEW that you can touch the cars literally.

The city is booming in credit and idiots.

‘Revitalized’ waterfront at huge cost and little to show, few hundred meters around Lakeshore.

Absolutely horrific traffic in Bramgladesh (oops Brampton even on the weekend), Vaughan, Markham.

Somehow revitalized Highway 7 after 10 years of construction can’t catch up with the traffic.

===================================

You’re wasting your time. MF has never actually lived anywhere outside of the GTA, so he simply doesn’t know anything else. Amusingly myopic, really.

Hope he’s wearing his body armour these days. Perhaps by “booming” he was referring to gunfire and murder?
—————————————————————
As someone who’s lived in the UK, Asia and a large chunk of the Caribbean, you have to be phenomenally stupid to believe Toronto is a dangerous city.

#107 IHCTD9 on 07.09.18 at 12:00 pm

#68 Stan Brooks on 07.09.18 at 4:15 am
_____

I find in the last few years, on major long weekends; that the 401 near to IHCTD9 headquarters is jammed with GTA traffic. IHCTD9 head offices are 200 km away from Toronto. Yes – 200km.

Same thing has happened to Hwy 28 to Bancroft. Bumper to bumper traffic on holidays, easy to see it’s 90% Toronto Traffic.

The Provincial Parks are now jam packed with GTA’ers, I mean the parks sell out immediately in the Spring – and everywhere you look it’s folks from the GTA. Never seen such frantic reserving of camp sites in all my life. (I suppose it won’t be long before bidding wars break out).

So a couple possibilities for this:

1. GTA’ers can no longer stand the city and need to escape to the hinterland for a time to allow their sanity to return.

2. GTA’ers can no longer afford the local Toronto attractions so must now make do with camping trips out in the boonies.

I think it’s both. It’s pretty amazing how many Toronto folks will now actually haul this far out spending what could be 8 hours in a car – just for a long weekend. It was a fast 1.5 hr. drive 25 years ago, now on a long weekend you’re looking at 4-5 hrs. I’m talking a 100+ km long stretch of bumper to bumper traffic going 30-40 km/hr. Just how bad is it in Toronto that this can be worth it?

There is a huge hill right near the 401, I took the almighty Grizzly 700SE “Tactical Black” up to the top on Labour Day weekend. There had been a crash in the Eastbound lanes, and the GTA escapee’s behind this were at a dead stop for miles. Westbound looked totally normal going 120-130km/hr. Eastbound was all headlights for as far as I could see – and I could see a long way on top of that hill.

IMHO, the GTA is already insufferable for someone who was not born into it, or did not come from an equivalent city elsewhere in the world. It is a 100% guarantee that Toronto is going to keep getting worse.

#108 dangerine on 07.09.18 at 12:27 pm

Hey Garth, when is time to back up the trucks on Canadian banks?

#109 Irwin on 07.09.18 at 12:54 pm

Drumheller AB:
“Real estate agents in the valley are reporting increasing sales after an extended period of a slower market, as Drumheller’s bloated inventory of houses begin to move.

“With over 115 houses currently on the market, Drumheller and area has had a 12-18 month period of slow sales but this past month has seen an increase in sales. While the number of houses for sale is higher than usual, local realtors say it is not a cause for concern.”

Keep on dreaming there, Mr & Ms Local Realtor.

Full piece found here: http://www.drumhellermail.com/news/30944-realtors-see-upswing-in-market

#110 TurnerNation on 07.09.18 at 1:00 pm

Great news for MF we are well on way to becoming a city of Zombies like San Fran. Search Zero Hedge for recent reports on SF.

Liberal and public union permissiveness we stand on guard for thee. What we fight for yo.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/toronto/article-torontos-chief-medical-officer-calls-for-decriminalization-of-all/

#111 TheDood on 07.09.18 at 1:24 pm

31 BillM on 07.08.18 at 6:58 pm
In the event of tariffs, just do not buy cars made in the USA if can be avoided. (I know I will not). Put a tariff on all cars from the USA. Its a big world, there are lots of other options, cars made in Canada and imports from Japan, South Korea etc. etc. The void will be filled. The biggest selling vehicle in the USA not counting trucks is the Toyota Rav4, (400K) made at 2 plants in Ontario. How is that going to work out ? Move next model year 2020 to the USA ? No easy answers but when Trump gets the boot things will return to some sort of sanity.

_________________________

Why wait for tariffs? Nobody should be buying american as the big 3 (Ford, GM, Chrysler) haven’t made decent vehicles in years. Vehicles coming out of japan have been head and shoulders (quality and performance) above anything made anywhere else for the last 40 years.

#112 jess on 07.09.18 at 1:31 pm

awaking

annual economic report just issued by the Bank of International Settlements.

https://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/ar2018e.pdf

https://www.ft.com/content/f3e5ce4a-7f7b-11e8-bc55-50daf11b720d

corporate debt
https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/rising-corporate-debt-peril-or-promise

#113 IHCTD9 on 07.09.18 at 1:47 pm

#95 AB Boxster on 07.09.18 at 10:13 am
#73 IHCTD9 on 07.09.18 at 6:54 am

Because once the entire US auto market increases in price for Canadians, every other foreign car maker will increase their prices to us as well – just because they can.

————————————

I’m not sure I buy that argument.

Firstly, the assumption that just because a car made in the US will cost $9000 more in Canada is based upon what?
________________________

You make several good points, and I agree with 99% of it.

It is true that auto manufacturers have been bailing to the USA for years already as it is indeed less expensive now to operate there compared to here. There is a good argument to be made against cars costing more if tariffs happen.

But, my experience in buying (globally) has shown me that if there is any opening, however it happens; for prices to go up – they will. I have also learned that you could never possibly ever guess what that opening could be, or understand it in advance. I have also learned that when the boat gets rocked, these opportunities happen.

So, your arguments are sound; but my experience says otherwise. I expect prices on cars to increase before too long in the event of an auto tariff. Why? Good question, the details remain to be seen – but I’ll likely be correct.

All I know is, it only takes one reason, and one big fish to act in the right economic climate – and EVERYONE EVERYWHERE goes for the increase.

#114 IHCTD9 on 07.09.18 at 1:59 pm

#111 TheDood on 07.09.18 at 1:24 pm
31 BillM on 07.08.18 at 6:58 pm
In the event of tariffs, just do not buy cars made in the USA if can be avoided. (I know I will not). Put a tariff on all cars from the USA. Its a big world, there are lots of other options, cars made in Canada and imports from Japan, South Korea etc. etc. The void will be filled. The biggest selling vehicle in the USA not counting trucks is the Toyota Rav4, (400K) made at 2 plants in Ontario. How is that going to work out ? Move next model year 2020 to the USA ? No easy answers but when Trump gets the boot things will return to some sort of sanity.

_________________________

Why wait for tariffs? Nobody should be buying american as the big 3 (Ford, GM, Chrysler) haven’t made decent vehicles in years. Vehicles coming out of japan have been head and shoulders (quality and performance) above anything made anywhere else for the last 40 years.
______

What if you need to haul or pull something big and heavy?

My wife’s old ’08 Honda Civic drained the oil pan between oil changes from 280K forward. That Honda was the only car she ever owned that ended up burning oil.

#115 Mattl on 07.09.18 at 2:00 pm

“#3 – Kelowna (-42% projection by 2020)”

Ya right. Inventory today is well below the 10 year average and prices, unlike other markets, are still relatively affordable. Kelowa has not seen the dramatic appreciation that other markets have. A home that was 400K 6 years ago is maybe 600k, no way it goes back to 350.

What I find funny about the Kelowna market is there are locals that complain about how affordable it is .5 years ago, when Van was on year of being on fire, you couldn’t sell a home in Kelowna. It really only took off in 2016 and has already settled down already. I doubt the long overdue increase in housing prices is fully wiped out, very much doubt we go back to what were insanely under priced homes of 2013.

Case in point you can still get an acreage here with a nice lake view, 20 mins from downtown, 3500sqft updated home for under 900K. Walk to the beach. That is still below replacement – you couldn’t buy 2 acres water view and build for 900K. So I just can’t see a big decline in prices for the city, at least overall. Rutland being the exception.

#116 Ubul on 07.09.18 at 2:09 pm

#107 IHCTD9

I find in the last few years, on major long weekends; that the 401 near to IHCTD9 headquarters is jammed with GTA traffic. IHCTD9 head offices are 200 km away from Toronto. Yes – 200km.

Same thing has happened to Hwy 28 to Bancroft. Bumper to bumper traffic on holidays, easy to see it’s 90% Toronto Traffic.

The Provincial Parks are now jam packed with GTA’ers, I mean the parks sell out immediately in the Spring – and everywhere you look it’s folks from the GTA. Never seen such frantic reserving of camp sites in all my life. (I suppose it won’t be long before bidding wars break out).

Everything is insanely jam packed – even city parks, with parking cars blocking the lanes to the parking lots. Law enforcement seems to have been suspended.

#117 Ubul on 07.09.18 at 2:15 pm

#106 Tater on 07.09.18 at 11:58 am

As someone who’s lived in the UK, Asia and a large chunk of the Caribbean, you have to be phenomenally stupid to believe Toronto is a dangerous city.

It is phenomenally stupid to be happy because Toronto is not as bad as shith0les around the world. Compare it to what it used to be to see the trend.

#118 Lies on 07.09.18 at 2:30 pm

#105 Vanzo on 07.09.18 at 11:53 am
I read that GTA prices are going up again and sales are heating up. Is that true?
———

No.

#119 tkid on 07.09.18 at 2:30 pm

Garth, please could we have more photos of your new office digs?

I am loathe to make you crazy envious. – Garth

#120 45north on 07.09.18 at 2:31 pm

When Will They Raise Rates: Ross Kay now says that GTA RE is in “free fall”.

Garth: Is this the soft landing the Bank of Canada so craves?
We won’t know that for a year or so

if a year from now, sales in the GTA fall another 25% – to 30,000 – then that would be a miracle. Not loaves and fishes, but still a miracle.

#121 Blacksheep on 07.09.18 at 2:36 pm

AB Boxster #95,

“Today, Canadian labour, costs more than labour costs for building cars in the US. The Americans and everywhere else in the world can build a car for less than it is built in Canada.”

“I thought that the whole globalist argument, that having production of goods occur in the cheapest country, was supposedly great for the entire world.

“My point is this”

“Maybe Canada should not be in the car manufacturing business at all.

I mean if Canada had a specific current economic advantage at manufacturing cars, would there not be a Canadian industry that would do this regardless of the American companies?

And according to the globalist mantra, if Canadians are not competitive at building cars (which is why much of the manufacturing has gone to Mexico and southern US States-where labour costs are far lower) then why should Canada have a car industry at all?

Yes, they are great well paying jobs.
Yes, the industry makes up a huge proportion of GDP in Ontario.
Yes, it would be a huge blow to the Canadian economy.

I suspect that if all vehicle manufacturing were to move from Canada to the US, the Canadian economy would take a huge hit, but that Canadians would pay competitive prices for vehicles that are manufactured all over the world, as the market is today.

And, if one is a true globalist zealot, and believes in the religious mantra of the manufacturing of goods going to the cheapest country, so that the rest of us can benefit from the cheap goods in return (as is the historical case for manufacturing of pretty much everything else that has moved offshore from Canada in the past) then why is this any different for auto manufacturing in Ontario?

No one shed a tear for our loss of manufacturing of every other product that went to Japan, Taiwan, Korea, China, India, Indonesia etc etc.”
—————————————
Unfortunately, for those employed in the Canadian auto sector, this rational is completely reasonable. How can anyone defend auto manufacturing against something so obvious, especially now that Trump has got his teeth into it and will likely force change.

I’m guessing Canada will end up building trucks for its domestic market, but only if there is enough sales to keep the industry alive AND Canadian auto retailers are willing to pay the higher wholesale costs of, in country production.

Great observations and honesty AB….

#122 Karl on 07.09.18 at 2:58 pm

GTA is rammed, there is no doubt about that. Everywhere I take my family, no matter what corner of the GTA, what festival, what park, all rammed. It’s starting to get to me.

My wife and I have very good jobs in GTA, but the sheer population boom is waning on us. I would love to go out East.

#123 Tea4Two on 07.09.18 at 3:02 pm

Tariffs on US cars is not a threat, it is a blessing in disguise for those otherwise naive enough to buy one.

#124 TurnerNation on 07.09.18 at 3:25 pm

#107 IHCTD9 you must one day host a Blog Dog meetup at your heteronormative rural compound. Gartho’s is too far away.
Oh what fun we will have, bikes babes and balanced portfolios.

#125 jess on 07.09.18 at 3:27 pm

This 27 x 27 leather pillow costsPrice: $274.00
http://www.leatherpillowfactory.com/leather-pillow-classic-collection.html ?

===================
reupholster job?
Chair One Cushion, Seat/Back Cushion, 2/Pkg
Fabric [email protected] natural leather
http://www.taxpayer.com/media/Mexico-GAC-A-2017-03080.pdf

OTTAWA, ON: Canadian Taxpayers Federation (CTF) Federal Director Aaron Wudrick released documents obtained through Access to Information by the CTF showing that in 2016, Global Affairs Canada spent $24,638 to purchase 86 seat cushions for the Canadian embassy in Mexico City.

http://www.taxpayer.com/media/Mexico-GAC-A-2017-03080.pdf

#126 Midnights on 07.09.18 at 3:50 pm

For something not being worth anything, it sure hard getting it back.
https://youtu.be/GZvnJ7sEcA8

#127 Stan Brooks on 07.09.18 at 3:54 pm

#106 Tater on 07.09.18 at 11:58 am

As someone who’s lived in the UK, Asia and a large chunk of the Caribbean, you have to be phenomenally stupid to believe Toronto is a dangerous city.

———————————-

You have to be phenomenally ignorant and stupid to ignore the trend, which is pretty clear.

Packed and jammed poor/working class city that is getting more expensive by the day, inhibited by people who have nothing to do with relatively low income but high taxes, what do you expect? Of course crime will rise.

If you have any integrity, then compare GTA with world class cities, not with s..tholes.

#128 AGuyInVancouver on 07.09.18 at 4:00 pm

#13 Islander
#35 Long time lurker
That article in the Georgia Straight isn’t worth the paper it was printed on. It merely shows how far the Straight has fallen from being a counterculture paper to a tool of developers that only survives thanks to big ads from the latest condo project being pimped. They know where their bread is buttered and Ng Weng Hoon is helping them to spread it on thick.

#129 TheDood on 07.09.18 at 4:04 pm

#115 Mattl on 07.09.18 at 2:00 pm

Ya right. Inventory today is well below the 10 year average and prices, unlike other markets, are still relatively affordable……………

……………Case in point you can still get an acreage here with a nice lake view, 20 mins from downtown, 3500sqft updated home for under 900K. Walk to the beach. That is still below replacement – you couldn’t buy 2 acres water view and build for 900K. So I just can’t see a big decline in prices for the city, at least overall.

______________________________

And I suppose (according to your idiot logic) salaries in the Okanagan fully support that kind of pricing huh?

#130 Ubul on 07.09.18 at 4:07 pm

#95 AB Boxster

Good points. Will you get counter-arguments? Nope. Your points will probably be just ignored.

#131 IHCTD9 on 07.09.18 at 4:19 pm

#122 Karl on 07.09.18 at 2:58 pm
GTA is rammed, there is no doubt about that. Everywhere I take my family, no matter what corner of the GTA, what festival, what park, all rammed. It’s starting to get to me.

My wife and I have very good jobs in GTA, but the sheer population boom is waning on us. I would love to go out East.
—————-

Small town Ontario living is sweet IMHO, but for us; it’s that way only because the wife and I have been lucky enough to hold on to decent employment. It depends on what you can expect to get for work out here, and what that earns you. Things are getting tougher, not easier.

For some perspective, the wife and I gross about 115-120k combined. That sucks compared to some Toronto white collar pay. But it goes a long way out here. One thing is sure for me, I can’t make the premium I’d need from the GTA to uproot here, and move into that rat race. Not even close. I’ll also note the car pools out here are jammed full every morining.

I won’t go on about the financial advantages of living out here, but they are a home run. I pass multiple 70,000.00 dollar trucks pulling 50,000.00 bass boats every weekend. It seems everyone has a garage stuffed with expensive 5 figure toys. The wife and I were well positioned at 40 years old, paid house, great nest egg, pay everything these days with cash.

Now, you’ll have to forego the gay pride parades and slut walks in favour of Scottish/Irish festivals and craft beer parties, but it really doesn’t take too long to like these events if you give them a chance :).

#132 IHCTD9 on 07.09.18 at 4:40 pm

#116 Ubul on 07.09.18 at 2:09 pm

Everything is insanely jam packed – even city parks, with parking cars blocking the lanes to the parking lots. Law enforcement seems to have been suspended

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I shudder to think what it’s going to look like 20 years from now, some studies say nearly 10 million in the GTA come 2041. The only way that’ll work is BILLIONS AND BILLIONS piled into public transit with HUNDREDS of new condo towers sprouting up all over the place.

Of course, our Provincial debt will probably be near 1 Trillion by then (we’ll be half a Trillion before 2028 at the rate we’re going, hell – we’ll be over 400 Billion before DF even finishes), so massive public transit won’t be happening.

More likely is that eventually, folks will be bailing out of the GTA faster than they’re moving in…

#133 Ubul on 07.09.18 at 4:51 pm

#54 AB Boxster on 07.08.18 at 10:32 pm

The estimate of additional cost per vehicle to Canadian consumers: $9000.

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So I get why it could cost more to buy an American car if all manufacturing went to the US from Canada and Mexico.

But why would it cost more to buy a car from Japan, Korea, Germany, etc?

Canada will not be putting tariffs on cars from these countries, though the Americans might.

Why would these cars cost more in Canada?

The source of the supposed price increase is CADA, the group, which represents 3,200 Canadian car and truck dealers. Their estimate is actually between $5K-$9K.

#134 Tater on 07.09.18 at 4:58 pm

117 Ubul on 07.09.18 at 2:15 pm
#106 Tater on 07.09.18 at 11:58 am

As someone who’s lived in the UK, Asia and a large chunk of the Caribbean, you have to be phenomenally stupid to believe Toronto is a dangerous city.

It is phenomenally stupid to be happy because Toronto is not as bad as shith0les around the world. Compare it to what it used to be to see the trend.
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TIL: some people think London and Hong Kong are sh*tholes.

As for how bad it is now, violent crime is lower than it was in the 80s and 90s, property crime is lower as well. Do you have anything to base your opinion on other than your vague feelings?

#135 KLNR on 07.09.18 at 5:55 pm

@#106 Tater on 07.09.18 at 11:58 am

#71 BillyBob on 07.09.18 at 6:22 am
#68 Stan Brooks on 07.09.18 at 4:15 am

Last 3 winters have been very bad.
this summer is boiling hot and always humid.

Every public place in GTA is overcrowded at any time of the day/year.

Infrastructure is built for 3 millions, not 6.
Bumper to bumper in the traffic, nowhere to go in the summer, hence the status of ‘resorts’ for blue ‘mountain’ and Collingwood, where a condo is more expensive than a villa with a pool at the seaside in Spain and you get bored in exactly 30 min in the summer and 3 hours in the winter.

The crowd gathering in the malls in endless stampede,
the ‘lucky’ hit the cottage country (after 4 hours drive one way) again with absolutely nothing to do in most cases, just stay at the cottage as you paid so much for it, you got to pretend you enjoy it.

Downtown overbuilt, all new glass condos, some so close to disintegrating QEW that you can touch the cars literally.

The city is booming in credit and idiots.

‘Revitalized’ waterfront at huge cost and little to show, few hundred meters around Lakeshore.

Absolutely horrific traffic in Bramgladesh (oops Brampton even on the weekend), Vaughan, Markham.

Somehow revitalized Highway 7 after 10 years of construction can’t catch up with the traffic.

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You’re wasting your time. MF has never actually lived anywhere outside of the GTA, so he simply doesn’t know anything else. Amusingly myopic, really.

Hope he’s wearing his body armour these days. Perhaps by “booming” he was referring to gunfire and murder?
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As someone who’s lived in the UK, Asia and a large chunk of the Caribbean, you have to be phenomenally stupid to believe Toronto is a dangerous city.

____________________

FYI Tater. those two miserable dudes are phenomenally stupid :)

#136 Smoking Man on 07.09.18 at 9:45 pm

Screwed Canadian Millenial on 07.09.18 at 6:47 pm
Smoking Man the George Soros wannabe LOL. Fancies himself being a billionaire globalist elite, meanwhile back in reality he’s a thousandaire Canadian pleb.

You really are Smoking too much substance, Man.
…….

It’s all about winning an argument with you. You have zero interest in learning anything of value. You preach a script written by some evil pricks that was slowly planted in your brain since JK.

Grow up, wrote you’re own script.

#137 Midnights on 07.10.18 at 10:38 am

A Tech Guru Captivated Canada. Then He Fled to China. https://nyti.ms/2NGlVue?smid=nytcore-ios-share