Great again

Any doubt rates will pop on Wednesday has been eliminated. Prepare. Uppa she goes.

The prime will be a quarter point higher on the 11th, and augment more in the autumn. Three more next year. The stress test will be plus- 6% in 12 months. I mean it. Get ready.

The latest data is clear. Over 75,000 new bodies flooded into the labour force in Canada last month, attracted by rising wages and more openings. Half of them found work within a few weeks. Economists expected 20,000 hirings. Instead there were about 32,000. Lots were part-time, but a job is a job. Said CIBC: “A higher unemployment rate coinciding with a strong jobs gain in June is the best of possible worlds for Canada, with more of us working, but perhaps a bit more room for that to continue without triggering an inflation spike.”

The big news is wages. In June they went up 3.6% year/year – one of the highest readings in almost a decade. Thanks higher minimums for part of that. There were even 11,000 manufacturing jobs created. The first time that’s happened this year – despite trade wars and you-know-who.

So, more workers, more jobs and more money being made, along with higher tariffs and input costs = more inflationary pressures. And that = higher rates. As documented here yesterday, the normalization continues. And, no, it will not trigger a serious recession, depression, or crash. Higher growth and incomes allows an economy to better digest debt. Yes, family finances are a mess and, yup, tens of thousands of households will suffer as rates move up and housing moves down. But it won’t kill the country. Or the banks.

What to do?

Pay down your LOC with regular monthly payments which exceed interest charges. Four in ten people aren’t doing this. They will seriously regret it. If you’re borrowing for a house, a VRM is still the best bet, given the premium for a fixed-rate. But if your lender offers a spread of less than about three-quarters of a point, seriously consider locking in to a fiver. We’ll be there in less than a year.

If you’ve been thinking of selling your property, do it. Rates are not retreating. They’re the single greatest determinate of real estate valuation. The falling cost of money was at the root of the historic romp in prices and the debt orgy which accompanied it. Now we’re on the other side of the mountain. Wait if you want, but you’ll get less later. Especially in poor BC.

And understand that as nutty and flawed as he may be, Donald Trump personifies one thing above all: inflation.

He’ll do anything necessary to promote growth, expansion and more GDP. It’s at the heart of the massive corporate tax cuts, the gutting of the EPA (what a circus yesterday), the America-first trade war, the Mexican wall, the military spending binge – it’s all designed to maximize economic activity, at the heart of ‘making America great again.’ The Fed knows this, which is why it will be even more aggressive in increasing rates and withdrawing stimulus, in an attempt to keep the inflationary fires under control.

Then there’s oil to vex over. Nothing stokes inflation more than this stuff. It’s the bloodflow of the global economy, and there are concerns we could be on the way to an astonishing $150 per barrel. The reason is a dearth of exploring, drilling and investment by the oil guys in the years since the price of crude collapsed as supply overwhelmed demand. These days global demand has hit a new all-time record, and will not retrace. It’s estimated a billion people will be moving to cities, buying cars and sucking more energy over the next couple of decades. Proven reserves have fallen by a third in the last 18 years. Could we once again start talking about ‘peak oil’? I think so.

Combine oil and commodity prices with President MAGA and the next decade will be nothing like the last one. It’ll feel a lot more like the Eighties. Google it, kids. And the music was way better.

122 comments ↓

#1 Wait There on 07.06.18 at 4:08 pm

Yes the best music was from the 70s and 80s.

Does that mean that balanced portfolio returns can return to 10%?

#2 SmallTownSteve on 07.06.18 at 4:14 pm

YES!!! I will be able to afford a new Kia!
Lol!

#3 CanadiansareMAGA on 07.06.18 at 4:14 pm

Beware of Economic Growth at all Costs, one of the deadliest economic sins….

Left Wing Economic Policies are luring and pushing the herd off the cliff again….

#4 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.06.18 at 4:16 pm

early today,
Going sailing this evening Garth?

#5 Dave on 07.06.18 at 4:24 pm

What will happen in Alberta !!!

Oil Boom = Jobs = Real Estate Boom

Or does it???

Oil has more than doubled since 2015. No boom. – Garth

#6 Stan Brooks on 07.06.18 at 4:29 pm

It takes quite some skills to spin the catastrophic experiment with minimum wage increases and inflation coming with it as ‘success’ measuring wages year/year.

or qualify 40 000 part time jobs take on by desperate mortgage holders as positive news.

spot on on the music :)

#7 I’m stupid on 07.06.18 at 4:29 pm

Am I the only one who sees a problem with expanding the global population? How many more people can this planet support? If population growth continues it will only be a matter of time before either war for resources breaks out or we screw up nature so bad our own existence will be in jeopardy.

#8 JSS on 07.06.18 at 4:46 pm

Garth, based on your blog today, does this spell an increase in the TSX over the years to come?

Seems likely. The market has lagged, is under-valued and we expect good stuff. – Garth

#9 Im with stupid on 07.06.18 at 4:47 pm

#7 – many people think this, myself included. And people like Doug Ford are short sited by not reflecting the cost of the environment by polluting. I hear people complain that money is mismanaged, but to me it’s a tax to consume carbon as well as a dissuasion to use of carbon and serves to promote cleaner energy options.

#10 ben senise on 07.06.18 at 4:55 pm

[from the third paragrah] ” Said CIBC: “A higher unemployment rate coinciding with a strong jobs gain…”
a higher *un*employment rate?
shouldn’t that be “employment” rate?

#11 FLHTK on 07.06.18 at 5:02 pm

Oh man, hang on to your purse strings

#12 Ian on 07.06.18 at 5:05 pm

Garth is right, Canada rates definitely up a quarter on 11 July.

What is uncertain is what happens after that. US GDP is starting to crater again like it does every time we get to the end of a completed quarter.

It’s weird with these midterms, I thought the Powell would help the Trumpy by pausing the rises, but maybe they are playing a longer game and thinking about 2020. Like, boost rates now and cut later when everyone realises what a mirage the supposed great US economy is.

Will be fun to monitor as always but in the meantime England wins this World Cup!!!

#13 Moot Inflation on 07.06.18 at 5:09 pm

So if the economy is doing well, employment is increasing, and we are seeing significant wage growth, how can that not moderate any housing correction?

People will have more cash to service their debt, and the inflationary growth in wages and interest rates will cancel oneanother out. There will be more people able to take out a mortage.

If prices are to correct to any reasonable ‘affordable level’ like they were 10 years ago, adjusted for inflation of course, you need a recession – not a hot economy….

All you need to know is the inverse relationship between interest rates and real estate values. – Garth

#14 Ex-Cowtown on 07.06.18 at 5:10 pm

Ahhhh… the Eighties…. Can I grow my Mullet again?

You still have hair? – Garth

#15 Shawn Allen on 07.06.18 at 5:11 pm

Alberta?

#5 Dave on 07.06.18 at 4:24 pm asked:
What will happen in Alberta !!!

Oil Boom = Jobs = Real Estate Boom

Or does it???

Oil has more than doubled since 2015. No boom. – Garth

**************************************
Alberta is not booming. But looking around Edmonton and my suburb (St. Albert) and the nearby part of Edmonton there is an awful lot of real estate investment taking place. New commercial areas are going in. This is not stuff that would have been committed to before the oil price decline. This is new stuff started in the last year. Home building does not appear to have slowed much. At least two large condo or apartment complexes are under construction near downtown St. Albert. These are large concrete six story buildings, not three story particle board stuff.

The Edmonton area unemployment rate reported today is 6.6% down from 8.1% a year ago.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/180706/t007a-eng.htm

6.6% is well below the Canadian long-term average unemployment rate in the past 40 years.

If oil goes higher Edmonton will be hopping possibly even booming.

#16 Can You Dig It? on 07.06.18 at 5:14 pm

The Canadian 10 year yields 2.12%. 2 year bond yields 1.91%.

We are 21 basis points before it inverts. Looming recession??

In the absence of any other downward-pointing data, absolutely not.- Garth

#17 Shawn Allen on 07.06.18 at 5:16 pm

Alberta?

As far as a home price boom in Alberta, of course that seems unlikely. Higher borrowing costs are too big a drag. If home prices can just hold their own in the Edmonton region that will be a good outcome for the economy.

#18 fishman on 07.06.18 at 5:26 pm

Eighties: I had a huge analogue cell phone. You could get reception anywhere except the Charlottes. B,C, Tel had analogue repeaters all up the coast & all around Vancouver. It cost me $2.85/minute. I averaged $700-$/900 per month cell phone bill.

#19 Reximus on 07.06.18 at 5:28 pm

All you need to know is the inverse relationship between interest rates and real estate values. – Garth

===

not when they’re sub 5%, and we’re a long way from those rates

#20 Fish on 07.06.18 at 5:28 pm

@ #4 NotLegalAdvice on 07.04.18 at 4:25 pm
The key is finding a partner that is also okay renting. That will bring you true happiness

************
could possibly start by saying let’s have a coffee

#21 young & foolish on 07.06.18 at 5:29 pm

What happened in the 80s ????

#22 Ian on 07.06.18 at 5:30 pm

Ahhhh… the Eighties…. Can I grow my Mullet again?

You still have hair? – Garth

Garth I thought you were on your parliamentary path yesterday where we weren’t going to belittle people? lol.

I’m still calling Trudeau The Snowboarder and I’m still calling Morneau Tax Fairness. That has to stay. It’s important to me lol

#23 Blacksheep on 07.06.18 at 5:32 pm

Johnny # 201,

“Here is the poop with the USA in case you not up on their history.”

“Did I say it was mine”
—————————
You didn’t need too, you deleted Mr. Levin’s name twice from his article, when it would have been less work for you to just copy and paste the whole thing, untouched.

Was this an ‘accident’ or an attempt to appear more knowledgeable, than you actually are?

#24 Reynolds531 on 07.06.18 at 5:41 pm

So are bonds in that balanced portfolio now dead wood? Better to hang out at the short end of duration?

#25 AGuyInVancouver on 07.06.18 at 5:46 pm

A return to the Eighties makes sense. I never watched The Apprentice, so to me Donald Trump, with Ivana on his arm, was familiar only as the epitome of the tacky Lifestyles of the Rich & Famous era.

#26 OttawaMike on 07.06.18 at 5:51 pm

Realtors: The Stress Test will kill the market!

June Numbers: Prices up.

Realtors: See the Market is Healthy, Buy Now before you miss the boat!

#27 OttawaMike on 07.06.18 at 5:53 pm

Just like the 1980’s– We can expect $10/barrel oil like 1986 then?

#28 Smartalox on 07.06.18 at 5:53 pm

The thing about the last Alberta Oil Boom:

When oil shot to over $100/bbl, there was a huge demand for more wells and rigs to drill them. Able bodies flocked to the oil patch, and the high prices (and the promised potential payoffs) covered the costs of a lot of the inefficiencies that come along with a burst of exploration, including any dry holes that ended up not paying off.

But if the boom was in exploration – drilling wells – the difference in cost between drilling wells and pumping from them was the bust: exploration may be profitable at $100/bbl, but pumping is profitable at $30.

A lot of companies stopped exploring, but pumping companies kept on pumping, and remained profitable, even as oil prices fell.

Drillers, fabricators, repair techs, mechanics and engineers are really only needed for exploration. Once the initial work is done, the industry can get by with a fraction of the workforce.

So those in exploration parked their rigs, and went back home. Those in the support services, moved on. The big oil companies got a lot of new capacity, and the province, of course, got stuck with the bill for all those holes that didn’t pay off.

The country has excess capacity – which is why the issue now is pipelines – and also why as oil prices rise, the exploration component of the oil industry has not returned. It may not return again, for quite some time.

#29 lockdwn90 on 07.06.18 at 6:03 pm

Given that Canada has private debt to gdp ratio of 267%, I am not convinced that economy will be able to absorb the coming interest rate increases.

If our economy is so strong how come the BoC frets about every measly .25% bump in the overnight rate and why are exports declining with a 75 cent loonie.

Also I think the GDP growth was 1.3% in Q1? We’ll see Garth. I hope you are right but I think we are pooched.

#30 The Real BC Real Estate Correction is Happening on 07.06.18 at 6:10 pm

Condo blow-outs.

South Delta SFDs listing 400k off their 2016 peaks.

Townhomes in Langley now a buyers market.

A tidal wave of completions hitting all over the province. Almost 4 standard deviations above the previous record set.

And laundered money through real estate diverting to the GTA and avoiding BC.

#31 Lots of Jobs in BC on 07.06.18 at 6:16 pm

So, with lots of jobs, why are not people buying houses?

They can’t afford one without a job and they can’t afford one with a job.

No new money is entering the real estate system. Period!

Therefore cashing out is seriously curtailed.

So, if you have to rely on an income and financing for a home, you are screwed in BC as of now.

Your 100K a year job does not even afford you a house in the remote boonies of Nelson, BC. 127K income is the requirement there right now.

#32 jess on 07.06.18 at 6:16 pm

Police Arrest ‘Thieves-in-Law’ in Historic Spanish Bust

Print article
Published: Friday, 06 July 2018 15:36
Written by Lydia Osborne
Armenian mafia

Spanish police said Thursday that they have derailed an extensive Eurasian crime network, arresting several high-level criminals known as “thieves-in-law” in one of the country’s largest ever operations against organized crime.

The organized crime network is allegedly involved in a vast spectrum of illicit activity, including drug and weapons trafficking, money laundering, home burglaries, extortion, fraud, and corruption.

Police said the group smuggled contraband tobacco produced in Ukraine and Poland and distributed it throughout Europe. They were also purported to be involved in bribing basketball, beach volleyball, ice hockey and minor league tennis players in Azerbaijan and Russia to fix the outcome of matches.

” Bad Romanian Horse Meat Stampedes Across Europe

Published: Thursday, 05 July 2018 16:23
Written by Roxana Jipa, RISE Project

Over and over again, Romanian horse meat laced with cadmium made its way into European markets. A new investigation finds that the companies involved used counterfeit documents — issued by Romanian veterinarians overseen by food safety officials.’

https://www.occrp.org/en/28-ccwatch/cc-watch-indepth/8284-bad-romanian-horse-meat-stampedes-across-europe

#33 NEVER GIVE UP on 07.06.18 at 6:16 pm

#198 NEVER GIVE UP on 07.06.18 at 1:53 pm
I get daily tax fraud calls that wake me up, interrupt my dinner etc.

Why does our weak and pathetic government allow phone calls from fraud artists?

It is solvable.
You just have to remove the allowance for all non land based origin calls to come in. Including international calls.

This will inconvenience some for a time until they learn to use a real phone to call us.

If the CRTC allows this then they are complicit.

Or you could hang up instead of wanting momma government to protect you. – Garth
=================================

Garth, It is funny that you of all people, one who was as I understand at the administration level of the Tax Department.

This is the department that they are defrauding.

They are scarring a large cohort of weak and frightened Canadians who are fearful of the strong arm tactics they have heard about the Tax Department. Everyone knows one or two horror stories.

Using the name of the Taxation Canada they are able to get people to withdraw money from their bank and go to a bitcoin machine to settle their “tax” bill before going to jail.

It seems you are not deeply offended by this.?

There are many weak people in our society that have no bullshit detection skills. The fraud is working and in full swing. I also get daily calls in Mandarin for the same scam. They must have got my name from some Chinese database and think I am Chinese.

Yes, I do believe in this case just like cases of securities fraud that we need “Momma Government” or the equivalent police forces involved.

And further to my complaint, I do believe if you added up all the times I spent getting up to answer the phones in my life to deal with fraudsters, not even including unwanted phone sales, It would amount to many thousands.

I need to answer my phone unlike my children because I have random business calls coming in. I need to be open. When I retire you will never get a hold of me unless you can punch in a password.

#34 BigEnglish on 07.06.18 at 6:17 pm

Co worker finally sold condo in downtown YVR for $35k less than his last offer, which fell through and was less than list.
Had been on market for 4 months.
When first listed, ~80 units of similar stock for sale, when sold 200 units of similar stock for sale.
Feel they got out in time, with only a minor hair cut.

#35 Bill Grable on 07.06.18 at 6:17 pm

* Mr. Turner – here is an example of the lunacy that reigns supreme here in ‘The Couv”. This from a craigslist.ca ad.
The area is nice but, its just the “Top 2 floors (private unit) in a 90 year old house, rent includes utilities (hydro/gas/internet). Beautiful location close to several shops on Dunbar and walking distance to groceries (Stongs). 15 minutes from UBC by transit. Big back yard shared with downstairs tenants. 4 bedrooms with a 5th potentially or playroom/office. Big living room, dining room, and kitchen. Updated kitchen appliances 3 years ago with natural gas stove and bbq. 2 full bathrooms, bathtub in both.

House is 90 years old and has its quirks. Kitchen floor/cupboards are quite dated. Upstairs is poorly insulated and will require space heaters/ac to maintain a comfortable temperature.

Rent? $3600 a month.

This is totally ridiculous……

https://vancouver.craigslist.ca/van/apa/d/house-in-dunbar/6631763376.html

#36 Flat Earth Society on 07.06.18 at 6:17 pm

Peak conventional oil (the cheap stuff that can be produced for $20/bbl) is already a rear view mirror thing, it happened around 2006ish. There is still a lot of it to come but it’s pretty much all been discovered so it’s a matter of how long it takes to produce it.

So how did oil production continue to rise since then (and it has)? Well, the shale oil boom in the US had a lot to do with it, as well as expansions in the tar sands, increased NGL production, and increases from Russia and other countries that have large reserves.

Unfortunately in the case of shale oil in particular you need somewhere around $80/bbl to make a go of it. The shale oil industry has burned through by some estimates over $500 billion of capital in the last 5 years and it’s not clear how they are going to pay all it back because they didn’t make any money. You can only sell at a loss for so long. So that is the first place I would look at for a possible price disturbance is if shale oil drillers finally stop drilling uneconomic wells just to keep their production numbers up.

Also there a few powder kegs in the world that could blow at any moment which could cause a lot of short term havoc. The main one is probably Iran, which is mad as hell at the prospect of having their oil exports embargoed by the US. Because of the geography of the region, it would be fairly simple for them to shut down the Straight of Hormuz for at least a while and make things very difficult until the Americans can punch a hole through there.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/05/iran-retaliate-us-oil-threats-eu-visit-hassan-rouhani-trump

I have no doubt that the US and whatever other nations dispatch forces to the region would prevail but it’ll be a major military campaign on par with the Iraq war. It’s going to take a lot of bombs dropped to make sure Iran doesn’t have any more anti-ship missiles hidden in caves that they can lob at passing oil tankers. But before you can get to that you’d want to neutralize the Iranian air force, so things could get out of hand pretty quickly. Iran has spent a long time thinking about just such a scenario so it’s hard to see how it could be done without at least some American casualties.

Oh well at least it would give the MSM something to talk about besides Stormy Daniels. And Keystone will get fast tracked.

#37 Foreign Buyers Primer on 07.06.18 at 6:21 pm

DELETED

#38 WUL on 07.06.18 at 6:21 pm

If my salary is included in the wage gain stats are included, the stats are skewed. My outrageous and largely undeserved good fortune was a 15.2% increase. That shows up on a pay stub.

Youngsters, be patient. You too will reach the point where grey hair is mistaken for competence. Rampant ageism.

Oh, I forgot the 1% or so increase in my CPP.

#39 MSM-Free Zone on 07.06.18 at 6:24 pm

Took a Hawg ride through Pennsylvania a couple of weeks ago to see it for myself.

Today’s photo pretty much sums up the mentality down there. Almost had to cover up my Canadian plates, lest my (partially) made-in-America V-Twin be labelled a threat to national security.

The only exception was a rural volunteer fire hall with a sandwich board out front, “Is that any way to treat your friends and neighbors?”

Given yesterday’s Pocahontas routine v2.0, it’s hard to believe there are still human beings down south who find the time to support one of the most despicable creatures ever to master the art of walking upright on two legs.

#40 B Wilds on 07.06.18 at 6:24 pm

I feel we are in uncharted waters and should take nothing for nothing for granted. To assume we will move forward without a glitch is extremely optimistic. With the passage of time, things change and evolve. This transformation can be seen in both society and the economy. A question we must ask is just how relevant today’s comparisons are with prior economic cycles?

The situation today is in many ways “historically unique” due to the rampant expansion of credit in recent decades. Recently I found myself pondering the line, “outwit and outlast” that is often used during the popular hit television show Survivor. It occurred to me the winners in both life and investing often reflect these qualities and that this game is far from over.

#41 Sonia in Salmon Arm on 07.06.18 at 6:30 pm

TATER from yesterday..

#93 Sonia in Salmon Arm on 07.05.18 at 8:41 pm
I’ve checked out your blog over the years. A few years back you were at least partially warm to gold, now seems you won’t touch it. In 2002 I sold some bonds (10 %) of my portfolio and bought 100 Canadian Gold Maples at an average cost of abt 345.00 US. I put them away in my safe deposit box and today they are worth approx. $132,000.00 US. Seems to me they were a pretty good investment. And, if sold a certain way (legal) no capital gains…

—————————————————————-
So, about an 4% CAGR in CAD terms. While XIU returned 7.3% annually over the same time period. Not sure that’s really a pretty good investment.

Much of the gains were in forex, remember. – Garth

TATER:

You’re right.. XIU has done a bit better over the same period of time. Some other investments have as well. I didn’t say gold is the best investment around but if you do some research you’ll find it’s done much better than most historically. Of course you want to have other investments..Even Garth doesn’t know which will be the best the next 5 years. I’d invite you to compare the performance of gold to XIU in 5 years…Could be very interesting..And no Garth the gains were not in Forex. Coins in my safe deposit box are not contracts sir.. Metal, not paper..cheers..Sonia.

#42 Danny on 07.06.18 at 6:32 pm

Garth……I am not an economist in any way. I am more of a social justice guy.

Which is why I read your blog….to learn more and somehow look into the near future.
But….is there any real indicator of personal debt that can be easily understood by the masses regarding the debt mess most people are in?

I have never really understood the Canadian Consumer Price Index and what the ordinary person can take from it?

Globe and Mail article……”The CPI basket excludes mortgage principal, opting instead for a much lower expenditure weight to reflect long-term housing depreciation. (Prior to 2009, it excluded both interest and principal for secondary residences, too.) Also, the CPI basket either partly or entirely excludes current costs of land, renovations, condo and lot fees, indirect taxes and transaction fees for primary residences, and most current costs for secondary residences.”

1.So what useful factors includes what is listed above as missing?
2.What few indicators and few answers are important for the masses to get it, when it comes to them knowing “really they are poorer than they think?

You probably covered this many times….thanks for your patience. I know you have patience based on some of the comments you get.

Maybe it is just too complicated for the masses and educating them ( and myself ) ….is pointless?

#43 For those about to flop... on 07.06.18 at 6:34 pm

Recent sale report/ Realtor assistance needed.

This luxury duplex sold 26 days ago.

Luxury duplexes,I didn’t know they existed,but when someone shells out 3.5 million and only own 3.5 walls,what else can you call it.

That’s a million per wall.

Paid 3.5 February 2017

Asking 3.59

Sold June 10 ,2018

Hit me with it…

M44BC

2998 Burfield Place, West Vancouver paid 3.5 February 2017 asking 3.59

Jan 9:$3,760,000
Mar 22: $3,598,000
Change: – 162000.00 -4%

https://www.zolo.ca/west-vancouver-real-estate/2998-burfield-place

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/RDAwMDBUVExZTg==

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Feel free to make a donation.

Flop For Fox Fund…

http://www.terryfox.org/get-involved/ways-to-give/

#44 Capt. Serious on 07.06.18 at 6:36 pm

I remember my uncle had to raid his RRSP (despite the tax consequences) to pay the mortgage in the 80s. Let’s hope we’re not going ALL the way back to high teens interest rates. I have a feeling CBs have learned that lesson and will slam the breaks hard if inflation starts to take off.

#7 I’m stupid on 07.06.18 at 4:29 pm
Am I the only one who sees a problem with expanding the global population? How many more people can this planet support?

Well, we’d better hope the answer is “more” because population should hit close to 10 billion souls on board by 2050. (This is actually less than 3 billion more than our current 7.6B.) The population growth rate is slowing though — as we industrialize we tend to have fewer kids. By 2100 projected to be around 11 billion.
Kind of puts our fewer than 40 million people in Canada in context doesn’t it.

#45 D C on 07.06.18 at 6:39 pm

I respect your blog, opinions, and great educational service you offer Garth. I also have considered you a valuable information resource to counter the sometimes xenophobic ideas about housing. But I have to ask you opinion on today’s MacLean’s (opinion) piece. Pretty scathing indictment with arguments countering some of yours…

https://www.macleans.ca/opinion/dirty-money-is-destroying-vancouvers-civic-fabric-and-causing-lasting-damage/

#46 akashic record on 07.06.18 at 6:53 pm

If it was so good we would know.

#47 TheDood on 07.06.18 at 7:03 pm

#5 Dave on 07.06.18 at 4:24 pm

What will happen in Alberta !!!

Oil Boom = Jobs = Real Estate Boom

Or does it???

Oil has more than doubled since 2015. No boom. – Garth
__________________________________

Nothing is going to happen in Alberta.

There is currently zero investment by big oil players in AB. Until AB punts out the environmental types and ditches all the nonsense regulations nobody will touch that place. Why would they? Doesn’t matter if oil shoots up to $200. There are too many better options elsewhere. The day AB voted orange was the day big oil started cleaning out their offices in Cowtown. Orange is bad for big oil.

#48 Ace Goodheart on 07.06.18 at 7:04 pm

Yeah in the states Trumpster is mashing liberal socialism into a smelly pulp and goosing the manufacturing and military industries.

In Canada Mr. Dress Up is worrying about his outfits and nationalizing impossible to build pipelines.

We are going to get screwed.

Trump is right. Who cares about being sensitive or trying to conform to the ongoing socialist wave?

The world runs on oil and industrial/military money.

We are going to once again get screwed by our excessive socialism while the USA rockets ahead of us.

History repeats itself

#49 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 07.06.18 at 7:13 pm

I thought all the greedy corporate shills on Bay Street said the economy was supposed to crash because of higher minimum wages?

Funny how employment and the economy continues going up instead. Almost like higher wages for hard working Canadians is a good thing… despite what conservatives would have you believe.

Now all the high-paid baristas can have increased debt service costs. Woohoo. – Garth

#50 Math is Fun on 07.06.18 at 7:14 pm

“A higher unemployment rate coinciding with a strong jobs gain in June…”

Shouldn’t that read a higher employment rate CIBC?
A higher unemployment rate indicates a higher rate of unemployed people.

#51 Shawn Allen on 07.06.18 at 7:18 pm

The Unemployment rate is low

The unemployment rates in Canada’s urban areas are shockingly low.

Yes, many jobs are part time. But that has been the case for decades.

Anyone who recalls the unemployment rates of the late 70’s, the 80’s the 90’s might be shocked by these low numbers.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/180706/t007a-eng.htm

Peterborough is 2.7%. If true, then things have really picked up in Peterborough.

Well, I suppose that one calls into question the accuracy of this data which is from surveys of households and does have a high statistical error rate but still…

#52 conan on 07.06.18 at 7:20 pm

France 2 Uruguay 0

They shut out a good team!

Sky is the limit, but first…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sNEvS-1ZGgM

#53 Jonnyb on 07.06.18 at 7:28 pm

The prime will be a quarter point higher on the 11th, and augment more in the autumn. Three more next year. The stress test will be plus- 6% in 12 months. I mean it. Get ready.

Seriously Garth? C’mon this isn’t politics anymore. The chances of that happening are only highly probably if nothing changes between now and 12 months. And how often do things stay the same? Whether it’s recession, trade wars, oil prices, or any of hundreds of other influences, what seems probably today will no doubt sway back and forth over time. 12 months is a long time – the weatherman can only predict the weather a week away based on current conditions, and therefore they’re woefully bad at it. What makes you think you’re any better in predicting our economic climate a year from now? At least do us a favour and qualify your prediction with something like “if things are like the way they are today” – otherwise you lose any and all credibility. A year from now when confronted about your predictions (if they’re wrong) and pick an event that changed the validity of your prediction -why not preempt it now? You’re not buying votes so unless you just need to feel smart, downplay the chest-puffing Trumpism a little for our benefit..

US rates have increased six times in 18 months and Canada will next week see its fourth hike. Prior to every such event people like you have said exactly the same thing. It isn’t working. – Garth

#54 VanMan on 07.06.18 at 7:31 pm

Agree on the next pop. The others, too early to tell. There has been certainty of rate increases in the past and then poof…all but vanished

#55 Tommy Simms on 07.06.18 at 7:38 pm

Nobody is going to like this or believe it but Dow Jones will be 16,000 by 2019, S&P 500 1,600 by 2019, TSX 11,000 by 2019, Nasdaq 4,500 by 2019.

Notice how interest rates, real interest rates long term ones 20 to 30 years are actually dropping. Recession, slowdown, economic downturn etc. pick your words but its all going down!!!

Why? – Garth

#56 the Jaguar on 07.06.18 at 7:44 pm

Thank you #28 Smartalox for your comments. It’s nice to have analysis from someone who understands the industry. I continue to see optimistic outlook around me here in the southern part of the great province of Alberta. Hard work, investment, both economic and personal, and pride of province will never allow this province to fail. Stampede began today on a 33 degree, sunny day. City full of tourists. Patios full. Money being spent everywhere. While Rome burns (BC) we have our eye on the prize, always.
Regarding this business of job numbers going up, factory orders, interest rates up, etc. I like it. It feels ‘normal’, and seems to represent real people taking charge of their own destiny, doing things, moving ahead. All that money printing and low interest rates just felt like we were all in the soup line or something. Waiting around for all levels of government to throw out a crumb. Pretty sure I can hear the sounds of Merlin engines overhead. They are unmistakable.

#57 Bonhomme Carnaval on 07.06.18 at 7:54 pm

The Eighties!?!

_Quebec Referendum
_Four years of PM Trudeau / Six years PM Mulroney
_18% mortgages
_Back to the Future 4
_The Wonder Years 2.0
_Pleated acid-washed jeans
_The Satanic Verses, for millennials

LOL

Totally rad!

From that list I’d say you were in Huggies then. – Garth

#58 espressobob on 07.06.18 at 7:54 pm

The future is an unknown quantity. Always has been. Investors that are diversified look past what could be.

That’s why we make returns correlated to the cost of living. Doing otherwise employs way more risk.

#59 you are wrong on 07.06.18 at 7:55 pm

Hi Garth,
Before you take off into ‘irrational exuberance’ as outlined by Greenspan in 1996 when talking about the U.S economy and stock market.I suggest you read the following.
You will remember the famous speech made by Yellen head of the U.S Fed at Jacksonville last September 12, 2017. She told the world’s bankers that she did not understand why wages were not rising.
Since then we have a new head of the Federal Reserve who also does not know why wages are not rising.
Remember, every news item on the economy especially the US economy tells us that things are GREAT and booming, the economy is SO healthy.
If the economy is so so healthy and stocks are booming, why are govts.? coffers not rising through taxation, why are we not racking up vast budget surpluses. Why are govts? not giving back all the surpluses so we can go and buy more stuff? Why are countries particularly the U.S talking about huge infrastructure projects?
Have a listen to Professor Danny Blanchflower put forward a much more rational explanation. Then let me know what you think. In case you can’t get in it is on Juggling Dynamite.

Blanchflower: ‘Fed doesn’t understand today’s labor market’
Posted on June 22, 2018 by Danielle Park
Nice to hear some truth in this clip about the state of present labor conditions. Nine years after the great recession we still have massive under-employment in much of the west. This on top of record debt and minuscule liquid savings mean the masses are more vulnerable than average late cycles, amid slowing global growth.
Dartmouth College Professor of Economics Danny Blanchflower discusses the lack of wage growth in the U.S. and U.K. economies. Here is a direct video link.

#60 Brian Ripley on 07.06.18 at 8:00 pm

If you’ve been thinking of selling your property, do it. Garth

My Vancouver vs Toronto housing chart is up
http://www.chpc.biz/compare-toronto–vancouver.html

Note: the absorption rates are dropping as FOSI (fear of staying in) gathers momentum.

#61 Newcomer on 07.06.18 at 8:10 pm

#7 I’m stupid on 07.06.18 at 4:29 pm
Am I the only one who sees a problem with expanding the global population?
——–

Just read up on it. It’s not a problem. In fact, the worry is the opposite. We recently passed peak-childbirth. Population will continue to grow, increasingly slowly, for about two generations, then fall. There is a lot of information available on this. Population decline is deflationary, which is to say the opposite of all the good stuff that Garth just listed.

#62 april on 07.06.18 at 8:14 pm

#30 – The asking prices on MLS for old condos in White Rock BC, are outrageous. A couple of yrs ago they were listed for around 200 thous, now they’re asking well over 300 thous and up. Bring on the crash!

#63 akashic record on 07.06.18 at 8:17 pm

As a “social justice guy” you shouldn’t have much problem to understand the CPI basket.

The CPI basket is changing the same political ways as social justice is bent by the social justice warriors of the day.

For an example, just think of the children in the news lately.

One day the same children are counted as parts of the law enforcement stats, other times they are counted as children in cages.

#64 WUL on 07.06.18 at 8:18 pm

After a couple of wobbly pops in a hot Calgary, I am in an improvident and uninformed wagering mood. But before I gamble my easily earned money, let me chime in on the predictions of a spike in oil prices to $150/bbl.

Poor Syncrude:

https://business.financialpost.com/commodities/energy/expect-a-ripple-effect-on-oil-prices-boots-on-the-ground-analyst-says-syncrude-wont-return-to-full-capacity-by-august

Also, before you go all bullish on O&G company investments, I suggest you have a look at the hedges they made on future production in Jan-Feb of 2016 when WTI hit ~$27/bbl. Those $40 hedges will look poor in 20/20 hindsight.

Turning to my wagers. I bet, against no one in particular, that two gov’t bailouts have higher odds than rate increases by the BoC. First, Premier Ford will bail out lower C02 emitting owners of credits earned under a now scrapped carbon cap and trade regime. I don’t know what the value of that is. Next, dairy farmers are worried about the future of the supply management lunacy is. One thing is certain, in my ill informed view. Massive cheques from governments for compensation for loss of quota. Billions

The Canadian way. Corporate welfare and massive debts.

Garth, again my thanks for providing this platform for my inanities and best wishes to you.

I’ll take my seat now.

#65 april on 07.06.18 at 8:20 pm

#26- and apparently that’s how the market always works…the last few fools buying in at the top pushing prices even higher only to painfully regret their decision when they see the value drop within months of their purchase.

#66 Long-Time Lurker on 07.06.18 at 8:22 pm

Now I’m glad I kept those acid-wash jeans and leotards. 80’s hair: if only.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lDK9QqIzhwk

If we take the U.S.’s population to be 300 million and 1/3 of them to be firearms owners then any group trying to physically invade the U.S. is going to be facing a 100 million person militia. Good luck with that.

42% of households in 2017 below:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/249740/percentage-of-households-in-the-united-states-owning-a-firearm/

#67 Jimers on 07.06.18 at 8:23 pm

#36 Flat Earth Society – The earth still holds abundant oil and renewable natural gas. New technologies are constantly finding new extraction and refinement methods, increasing supply and and reducing costs. The US strategy on conventional or sweeter oil has been to exhaust the Middle East first before they seriously tap into there own reserves. Its a game of last man standing. Based on Trump’s attitude towards coal things may change, but unlikely.

#68 Dolce Vita on 07.06.18 at 8:28 pm

It seems the MSM reads only Table 1 and the Summary paragraphs of the Labour Force Survey, why I read the Survey first and then amuse myself with the 2 bricks short of a full load MSM take on it.

June Jobs Report, and I quote StatCan:

…”In June, employment rose for men aged 55 and older, while it held steady for the other demographic groups.”

– Great news if you are a Boomer male. For the rest, you are SOL (you know who the “rest” are, younger people that actually buy stuff).

…2nd leading job creation was from the Public Sector +11.8 thousand, May to June.

-Yea Gov! for spending more money you do not have.

…Leading job losses was the Private Sector -2.0 thousand, May to June.

-Clearly, the Public Sector’s enthusiasm lost on them.

…LEADING ALL THAT JUICY job creation were the “Self-Employed” +22.0 thousand, May to June.

-Yes Folks, that’s where the “jobs” mostly came from.

The “Self-Employed” (StatCan words, not mine – someone there had a sense of humour, link at the end of this diatribe):

-includes “babysitters and newspaper carriers”.

In 2009 Statistics Canada’s Business Register counted (breakdown of the “Self-Employed”):

1.2 MM w/no paid employees,
0.6 MM w/1-4 employees, and
0.2 MM w/5-9 employees.

Still, a job is a job. In that you are correct Garth.

Most of them came from Ontario.

Hopefully Mr. MAGA will not make good on his trade threats and that it is just talk.

Same for ON’s newly minted Premier on shrinking the Public Sector.

Fear not if the above 2 happen, we will still have the “Self-Employed”, as always, to Save the Day (thank the babysitters).

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/21-006-x/2012001/data-eng.htm

#69 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.06.18 at 8:30 pm

@#21 young and foolish
“What happened in the 80s ????”
+++++
Those that lived it to the max cant remember…..or was that the 70’s?

#70 young & foolish on 07.06.18 at 8:34 pm

I love coming here to get an optimistic economic perspective. Simple reminders like interest rates up, house prices down are very useful reminders. Even Trump’s seeming chaotic agenda is woven together toward a better growth ahead strategy.

Stay positive Blog Dogs!

#71 baloney Sandwitch on 07.06.18 at 8:47 pm

Combine oil and commodity prices with President MAGA and the next decade will be nothing like the last one. It’ll feel a lot more like the Eighties. Google it, kids

Seems likely. The market has lagged, is under-valued and we expect good stuff. – Garth

S&P went from 100 to 1400 from 1980 to 1990.

#72 conan on 07.06.18 at 8:49 pm

Belgium 2 Brazil 1

Unexpected, must be the mojo.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EvA2RNci3SE

#73 Graeme on 07.06.18 at 8:57 pm

Oh boy! Lots more part time minimum wage jobs. We NEVER had it SO good! Wopppeeee! No wonder the CB has to raise rates. We’re on fire!! And the stock market…don’t get me started. Everybody knows that tariffs, chaos and confusion will drive it to higher and higher heights!

#74 Tony on 07.06.18 at 9:02 pm

I still can’t believe “the powers that be” allowed oil to spike above the 60 dollar U.S. mark. The frackers need around 60 dollars a barrel to make money. I still think oil is headed to sub-60 territory.

#75 Habbitt on 07.06.18 at 9:04 pm

53 jonnyb. You dumb ass. Nobody expects our gracious host to be right about everything all the time. What we are getting is the man’s opinion based on his considerable experience. What’s yours eh.Thanks again Mr. Turner.

#76 Tony on 07.06.18 at 9:11 pm

Re: #12 Ian on 07.06.18 at 5:05 pm

The monthly U.S. jobs report has a direct correlation with the level of the stock market and the level of the U.S. dollar. If the stock market short term has lagged and the dollar index is high chances are near 100 percent either the jobs report will come in weak or the wage gains will come in weak. Gold and silver should have spiked after the jobs report but the speculators seem to be waiting for the counter tariffs from outside America before unloading their shorts.

You just unloaded your shorts here. Go away. – Garth

#77 Capt. Serious on 07.06.18 at 9:27 pm

#73 Graeme on 07.06.18 at 8:57 pm
And the stock market…don’t get me started. Everybody knows that tariffs, chaos and confusion will drive it to higher and higher heights!

Just so you are not confused, literally the only thing the stock market cares about is earnings. The rest is noise.

#78 Moses71 on 07.06.18 at 9:31 pm

No, music was NOT better in the eighties!!

#79 ANON on 07.06.18 at 9:58 pm

These days global demand has hit a new all-time record, and will not retrace.

It Is Different This Time ©

Demand is demand. Price will therefore be determined more by supply. – Garth

.

#80 Bigrider on 07.06.18 at 9:58 pm

Garth, I warned you once already not to use the term “uppa” as I have a copyright.

You’re rich, I’m not, so I’m suing you.

#81 Cici on 07.06.18 at 10:00 pm

#7 I’m stupid

You definitely are not the only person worried about the path of destruction that we are on. I worry the most about all the sweet, innocent children, as well as all the animals and birds, who are going to get tangled up in this mess. Very sad and scary.

#82 ANON on 07.06.18 at 10:15 pm

Demand is demand. Price will therefore be determined more by supply. – Garth

I remember when demand was what one could afford, but maybe I was dreaming, it was really long ago.

The reference was to global oil consumption. – Garth

#83 mark on 07.06.18 at 10:26 pm

How quickly things change and how worthless forecasts and the media bozos who repeat them are. 18 months ago idiots were talking about $10 oil, next thing it will be $200 oil. Yes, IF it keeps on raining it may well flood. About as good as Goldman’s Germany v Brazil world cup final probability.

#84 renter in Surrey on 07.06.18 at 10:31 pm

30 The Real BC Real Estate Correction is Happening

Townhomes in Langley now a buyers market.

Are you talking about those $700K townhouses in Langley?

https://www.zolo.ca/langley-real-estate/2521-wilding-crescent

Yahoo! Real buyers market is finally here…

#85 renter in Surrey on 07.06.18 at 10:35 pm

sorry, wrong URL

I mean these 600K (rounded) townhouses

https://www.zolo.ca/langley-real-estate/9525-204-street/36

I believe in correction when I see it for below 400K (still crazy expensive)

#86 conan on 07.06.18 at 11:04 pm

It’ll feel a lot more like the Eighties. Google it, kids. And the music was way better. – Garth

bEsT sOnG eVeR fRoM tHe 80’s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1x_zeY5h0QI

#87 Doug in London on 07.06.18 at 11:36 pm

Where’s the price of oil going in the next year or so? I have no idea, but let’s look at some history. In 1998, when oil was at about $11/barrel some “expert” said that there’s so much oil out there that it could go to $5/barrel. Ten years later it peaked at $147/barrel or thereabouts. My biggest regrets are that, while I did make a profit, I sold my all my TD Energy Fund too early. In 2015, when oil was dropping in price some “expert” said it could go to $20/barrel. It actually did drop to $27, but didn’t stay there too long. Now oil is steadily going up, presently something like $73/barrel now. Coincidence? Not likely, everything goes full circle. I’ll hold on to my XEG for now.

#88 dosouth on 07.06.18 at 11:50 pm

and so we bid adieu to the Real Estate sales figures in the Okanagan….

Sunshine and lollipops no more…

#89 Graeme on 07.07.18 at 1:26 am

“You just unloaded your shorts here. Go away.” Garth

That was darned funny. I am still laughing half hour later. Thanks Garth!

#90 Smoking Man on 07.07.18 at 2:05 am

It’s obvious that T2 and his band of lunatics are going down in the next election..

Is it an accident or theatrics.

The obiviousnees of it is sinister.

Those thoughts happen every time you mix bourbon with weed.

#91 Dolce Vita on 07.07.18 at 3:11 am

1 Labour Force Survey result I did like, very much:

“There were even 11,000 manufacturing jobs created.”

Still, not much to crow about (read below why) but MUCH better than losing jobs in this well paying and value added Sector.

Per StatCan’s Employment by industry, monthly, unadjusted for seasonality, Table: 14-10-0201-01 (formerly CANSIM 281-0023),

Canada went from:

2,028,083 Manufacturing Jobs in June 2001

to

1,529,199 Manufacturing Jobs in April 2018.

– – – – – – – – – – –

About 500,000 Manufacturing jobs lost over that period (on average: 30,000/year) – near precipitous for that Sector.

You have to wonder where all those jobs went to and why?

+11,000 Manufacturing jobs a good thing, in fact, a VERY good thing – PROBABLY THE BEST news from the Labour Force Survey, June 2018.

#92 Flat Earth Society on 07.07.18 at 3:17 am

#67 Jimers

I didn’t say there wasn’t lots of oil left, only that the “cheap” oil is no longer to be found. And no, technology doesn’t make the hard to get at cheaper. I mean there is a learning curve where in full production it is cheaper than in development, but it’ll never be as cheap as the easy oil was. It takes too much technology, and technology isn’t cheap.

Look, you have to study economics and engineering to understand such things. The easy resources always get extracted first. The California gold rush involved mostly panning on the surface or surface mines. It wasn’t until those resources were more or less gone that they started drilling mile deep mines in South Africa. That same thing is happening now with oil. Doesn’t mean we’ll run out any time soon, but it won’t be cheap.

I’ve been to a fracking sight and stood there as they put down a frack, monitored by a team of engineers and computers as it went with all sorts of hydrophones. The shear number of large pumps, and these things take up a whole tractor trailer and are each powered by an engine you’d normally find in a train, was breath taking. And they had to repeat the process dozens of times, although we couldn’t stick around for that. And then the well runs dry in 3 years. It’s not like the old days where you could pound a hole in the ground with trees like the oil derrick the have at Heritage park and the oil would just come up. We’ve use all that up. The stuff we have left takes more doing to get at.

There was a reason the BP was out in the deep water of the Gulf Coast when Deepwater Horizon blew up. That’s where the rest of the oil is. And that was not a cheap operation, much more costly and expensive than what would have been attempted 40 years ago.

We won’t ever run out of oil. It will just gradually get so expensive that even Garth has to trade in his SUV.

And this is the way all things go. Very expensive at first, but gradually the price drops, but the new lower price is always more than what the previous technology costed. Take the phone for example. What did you pay for your land line in 1980? What do you pay now for you and your spouse and every kid you have who is over 12 to have a smart phone? The difference even adjusted for inflation is stunning. Or take the TV. Sure, a 32 inch LED is pretty cheap, about the same price as a 32 in tube TV was, but who buys those anymore? It’s got to be 55 inch now and you need to bring $800 to the store, plus it’s no good without cable.

Technology never makes things less expensive. This laptop I’m using right now for example, pretty cheap for what it is only $700 plus tax, but I have to buy a new one every 3 years because they just quit working, and I need an internet connection. And what does it gain me? I can comment on Garth’s blog and do online banking.

#93 Jay Currie on 07.07.18 at 4:06 am

I loved the 80’s. Cool car and first ever mortgage at 19.5%…for a $215,000 house in Kits. Good Times, no mullet.

#94 Oft deleted much maligned stock.picker on 07.07.18 at 6:24 am

Gosh…..you can’t bemoan the rationalization of the EPA and then cry about a slow capex in ‘the patch’. The Obama propaganda and phony climate doctrine is the direct cause of the EPA blundering into a fossil fuel free fantasy. Personally I’m backing up the truck on all energy equities….ZEO…XEG….CVE….HSE….TRP….IPL….NPI…ENB…PR…TDG….shotgun…heavy….you name…this platter of yummy goodness is already in the black by 25% ytd. Imagine the frenzy at $150?

Trudeau is backed into a corner…..he’ll have to capitulate. He counted on his groping victim to stay quiet like she said she wanted …but then Trudeau started talking stupid….about how maybe her perceptions on the incident we’re wrong…..then she fired back….not happy to be called a witless female who didn’t know a gropes from the back of his hand. Didn’t he do the same thing to Trump…..wait till he was out of earshot and talk stupid and brave…..now Trudeau is dangling on a lie his lawyers can’t spin off as credible.

#95 Wrk.dover on 07.07.18 at 6:28 am

35 Bill Grable on 07.06.18 at 6:17 pm

House is 90 years old and has its quirks. Kitchen floor/cupboards are quite dated. Upstairs is poorly insulated and will require space heaters/ac to maintain a comfortable temperature.

Rent? $3600 a month

—————————-

In the good old eighties, during the renaissance of waterbeds with my ten foot satellite dish streaming rock videos 24/7 on two channels on a 29″ glass TV tube linked to a four channel quad decoder at home, my self employed goal was to gross $100/day.

Sometimes it took all day, sometimes a few hours.

Now that wouldn’t cover Buddy’s rent….

#96 Ponnaps on 07.07.18 at 8:23 am

Most of the jobs added are part time..and this seems to be the case for several Qs now…

so lol looks like part time was included, propped up and normalised as major job gains just as a ruse for BoC to increase the rates.. pure gimmicks by the govt in cahoots with the BoC.. no one else sees part time as a positive esp the ones in it..

#97 Howard on 07.07.18 at 9:08 am

#94 Oft deleted much maligned stock.picker on 07.07.18 at 6:24 am

Gosh…..you can’t bemoan the rationalization of the EPA and then cry about a slow capex in ‘the patch’. The Obama propaganda and phony climate doctrine is the direct cause of the EPA blundering into a fossil fuel free fantasy. Personally I’m backing up the truck on all energy equities….ZEO…XEG….CVE….HSE….TRP….IPL….NPI…ENB…PR…TDG….shotgun…heavy….you name…this platter of yummy goodness is already in the black by 25% ytd. Imagine the frenzy at $150?

—————————–

Any smaller players? I’m in TOG and ATH, both have excellent balance sheets which is rare among oil sands firms.

Also, note that if oil skyrockets, demand for uranium will assuredly increase, pushing up uranium equities too.

#98 Howard on 07.07.18 at 9:11 am

Party like it’s 1984!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PGNiXGX2nLU

I just imagined a younger Garth Turner bopping to the above in an 80s club. That’ll give me a few nightmares.

I never bopped. – Garth

#99 Ace Goodheart on 07.07.18 at 9:14 am

What investors need to take from the current situation is this: your investments in renewable energy companies, which are all basically government funded experiments, are hanging by an increasingly unpopular thread called Justin Trudeau.

If Canada swings right and elects a conservative government in the next federal election and Trump manages two terms, any government funded renewable energy company is going to be reduced to tattered shreds.

A Canadian federal conservative govt is going to fully align itself with Trump and that will be the end of the fight against global warming. Bye bye carbon tax.

And if people think that won’t happen consider: no federal govt in history has managed to be elected without winning Ontario.

Justin just told Ontario voters, who gave Doug Ford a landslide majority, that they don’t have the right to decide whether they participate in carbon taxation and He is going to force it on them.. Doug promised to litigate.

It might not matter. Justin may have just lost the Province of Ontario with that stunt and with it the next federal election

#100 Evangeline on 07.07.18 at 9:36 am

#91 Dolce Vita

“About 500,000 Manufacturing jobs lost over that period (on average: 30,000/year) – near precipitous for that Sector.”

Those jobs mostly went to China and other places that had extremely low wages. That’s why so many things in our stores are now “Made in China.” (Yesterday people were asking how China advanced to rapidly, and this answers that question too.)

American jobs also went the way of shuttered factory.

One of President Trump’s major promises was to bring back jobs.

#101 Brian1 on 07.07.18 at 9:40 am

DELETED

#102 Karl on 07.07.18 at 9:48 am

Garth, how would you convince a young family to sell their home and rent instead? Asking for a friend.

#103 Evangeline on 07.07.18 at 10:40 am

Maybe this is one of the underlying reasons for the oil surge.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6kA_qGFUMEQ

#104 AM in MN on 07.07.18 at 10:48 am

There is no boom in Alberta because the oil is landlocked.

–What will happen in Alberta !!!
Oil Boom = Jobs = Real Estate Boom
Or does it???
Oil has more than doubled since 2015. No boom. – Garth

Western Canada Select has not doubled, it sometimes trades at a $30 discount to WTI. Two pipelines to the west coast and one to the east and Canada would be booming. The dollar would rise significantly if the country exported 2M bpd more at global prices.

Just need to find Canada’s version of Trump….perhaps better mannered version, who will sign decries and make it happen. A Canadian PM has broad powers if he wants to use them.

Many people fail to realize that the US economic boom going on is very much tied to energy, and signing the orders on the Keystone XL, Dakota Access and a gas line to Maryland, as well as junking the fraudulent global warmer hysteria, has led off an investment boom that won’t stop unless oil crashes again.

The Canadian business media should publish daily prices of WCS next to WTI so idiots could see what’s going on.

The term “oil” is almost universally synonymous with WTI. – Garth

#105 Oft deleted much maligned stock.picker on 07.07.18 at 11:08 am

#97 Howard….why not shotgun ZJO….speculating on Juniors is a traders game.. The uranium game is likely over for the foreseeable future.

#106 theoryAndPractice on 07.07.18 at 11:10 am

#33 NEVER GIVE UP on 07.06.18 at 6:16 pm
#198 NEVER GIVE UP on 07.06.18 at 1:53 pm
I get daily tax fraud calls that wake me up, interrupt my dinner etc…
———————————————–

Check if your current phone service provider supports wild-card phone blocking. If not,
Transfer your phone number to a VOIP, provider, that supports regex or wild-card phone blocking accessible through a web browser, and block the numbers using wild-card pattern that you don’t want.

#107 Rargary on 07.07.18 at 11:33 am

K. Garth? Or anyone intell on here… Calgarys economy has moved up somewhat in the last year… oil doubled but no boom in site… however, they’re finally making some bucks in oil and if it does reach $100, the gains and work go up substantially as we’d be that much over the bar. The pipeline is imminent so I (wistfully?) Foretell a good little boom not too far around the corner for us Albertans… am I so off the mark here or do tell pls greaterfool intell

#108 Damifino on 07.07.18 at 11:45 am

#107 Rargary

The pipeline is imminent…
————————————-

In theory, at least.

#109 Big Kahuna on 07.07.18 at 11:48 am

DELETED

#110 Quebec Is Great on 07.07.18 at 12:01 pm

my feeling on gold:

“…slow supply growth explains why gold traded for just $20.67/ounce in the year 1900, and presently trades for $1,320/ounce — a compound growth rate of 3.6%. Perhaps not surprisingly, if one subtracts the CAGR of the gold supply from the CAGR of the gold price, you get 3.6% – 1.3% = 2.3%, which is probably a reasonable proxy for global real GDP growth since 1900.” (source:Medium.com

#111 Brian1 on 07.07.18 at 12:10 pm

Well Garth, I try to contribute. What else can I do? Too political?

#112 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.07.18 at 12:21 pm

@#106 theoryandprctice
‘Check if your current phone service provider supports wild-card phone blocking. If not,
Transfer your phone number to a VOIP, provider, that supports regex or wild-card phone blocking accessible through a web browser, and block the numbers using wild-card pattern that you don’t want.”
+++++

Thanks for the info

But this AGAIN begs the question.
If you can find a way to block unwanted spam numbers ……Why cant the billions of dollars profits Telco companies ?
They’re incapable of blocking what essentially constitutes harassment and fraud…..Total horseshit.

#113 Smoking Man on 07.07.18 at 12:52 pm

Arazona came to the beach yesterday. Thank god for Costco and a kick ass made in China AC got the last one.

http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-record-heat-20180706-story.html

#114 saskatoon on 07.07.18 at 1:22 pm

garth, your blog is becoming borderline delusional in quest to maintain msm narrative.

– public sector gained 11,800 jobs and the private sector lost 2,000

-unemployment rate moved up (now 6% and change)

– hourly wages dropped from 9 year high

– statscan reported merch trade deficit widened to almost 2.8 billion

– labour force participation rate now at 1999 level

– canadian exports have slowed nominally

Labour force participation increased last month. Wages are up strongly year/year. Job creation beat estimates by over 50%. No, it’s not ponies & sunshine. But it’s getting better. Deal with it. – Garth

#115 Shawn Allen on 07.07.18 at 1:39 pm

The Dood at 47 said:

Nothing is going to happen in Alberta.

There is currently zero investment by big oil players in AB. Until AB punts out the environmental types and ditches all the nonsense regulations nobody will touch that place. Why would they? Doesn’t matter if oil shoots up to $200. There are too many better options elsewhere. The day AB voted orange was the day big oil started cleaning out their offices in Cowtown. Orange is bad for big oil.

************************************
Well, the FIRST thing Alberta needs is pipelines. Until the pipeline capacity is in place, the LAST thing it needs is any more investment in oil production which would just add to glut of locked in oil and the discount to world prices.

The oil industry vastly over-invested in production in excess of pipeline capacity. That pre-dated the election of the NDP.

Meanwhile at least where I sit (near Edmonton), a lot is happening in Alberta. Lots of new houses being built. Loads of new retail and commercial development. Someone is showing confidence. Time will tell who is right.

Check out all the green on the Alberta economic dashboard:

http://economicdashboard.alberta.ca/

There are some indicators in the red but most are green.

#116 Triplenet on 07.07.18 at 1:46 pm

#43 Flop
Luxury duplex or semi- detached housing both fall under condominium ownership.
Hope this helps.

#117 45north on 07.07.18 at 2:10 pm

dosouth: from your link: talking about residential sales in the Okanagan:

“In a weird kind of irony, government measures to increase housing affordability are actually having the opposite effect; not just curbing housing demand but affecting household purchasing power as well,”

which is what I said. The Dippers’ tax is having the opposite effect. There is a tax on foreigners and on Canadians who do not live in British Columbia. Also a tax on those deemed as speculators.

The Dippers have such a sense of entitlement. Which is a weird kind of irony because in their minds they represent the downtrodden.

#118 jess on 07.07.18 at 3:53 pm

The UK’s Office for National Statistics is reinventing how it publishes the most important numbers about the British economy. From next week, the ONS will start publishing a monthly GDP figure in addition to the usual quarterly series

=

FUTURE OF FINANCE FRIDAY
Get ready for self-driving money?

https://qz.com/1311135/credit-karma-ceo-ken-lin-says-autonomous-money-will-be-here-in-five-years/

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/010815/why-credit-karma-free-how-it-makes-money.asp

#119 Steven Rowlandson on 07.07.18 at 9:09 pm

6% or better. Does that mean it will pay to save?

#120 Doug in London on 07.07.18 at 10:35 pm

Return of the 80s you say? I’m looking for my tapes of Duran Duran, U2 The Joshua Tree, The Sugar Cubes, and Van Halen 1984.

#121 midnights on 07.08.18 at 1:02 am

other suggestions
Martin Armstrong
ITR Economics
Hard to argue with people that have been more right than wrong.

#122 theoryAndPractice on 07.08.18 at 11:52 am

80’s music, nice to remember..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0fAQhSRLQnM