Everybody knows

The bulk of people buying million-dollar properties in Toronto and Vancouver carry debts equal to, or exceeding, 450% of what they earn. Gulp. That should answer the question oft posed: how can the average income-earner afford the average house?

Answer: they can’t. So the average family has borrowed excessively, or cashed in existing real estate and added in more mortgage financing, to move up the property ladder. This is why a household in Van with the median income of $80,000 can’t afford a $1.6 million house without existing savings, equity or a rampant disregard for debt. It’s also why BC has a negative personal savings rate. Last year the Bank of Canada crunched the numbers and concluded 8% of the national population – those with borrowings of more than four times income – were at high risk if interest rates ever increased. Which they are.

By the way, when 8% of Americans became over-extended and wobbly, the entire market grew unstable. Then crashed.

The housing market being what it is, each sale sets the floor for prices on a street, in a hood or an entire city. So when some fools decide to borrow a huge amount and spend their brains out, it drives the entire thing skyward. This is why prices escalate – a cycle of moronic behaviour, cheap credit and FOMO.

However, most folks don’t see it that way, because they don’t want to. It’s easier and more comforting to blame others for a situation which is now largely untenable. So, enter the bad guys. They are (alternatively) Chinese dudes, temporary foreign workers, Albertans (or anyone with truck nuts), gangs or money launderers.

Lately it’s the latter who are much in vogue following a sketchy report done for the BC Dippers alleging $100 million in dirty money was laundered through BC casinos over the past decade. Wow. A hundred mill. Sounds like a lot. And so everyone thinks (a) it all went into residential real estate and (b) that’s why houses cost a pile.

But, alas, it’s a myth.

Over the past ten years there have been $1 trillion worth of residential real estate transactions in BC, most of them being in YVR and the LM. Because math is hard, let’s spell out what $100 million is as a component of one trillion dollars: 0.01%. Yup, statistically insignificant. Even if were all concentrated in Vancouver, still meaningless. Last year $37.8 billion worth of properties sold in that one city alone. So, if $10 million of that came from money laundering, it would account for ten properties, or 0.029% of all deals.

But, ask the average dude if dirty money/gangs/casinos is responsible for the stupid price of a house in Kits, and the answer will be the same, ten times out of ten. “Plus the Chinese,” he’ll tell you, nodding. “Everybody knows that.”

Well, almost everyone. Last week CMHC released an interesting study on market perceptions. What impact, it asked, do you think foreign buyers are having? In Vancouver 68% answered “a lot of influence” while in Toronto 48% agreed foreigners are driving up house prices.

But there is zero statistical evidence to support this. Every study has found remarkably similar totals for foreign buying of domestic real estate in these two cities. StatsCan numbers are typical: 4.8% of transactions in Vancouver and 3.4% in Toronto.

“What is striking,” says the crown corporation, “is the significant gap between perceptions of the public and available data, so much so that the perception of non-resident ownership takes centre stage when discussing the drivers of price growth.” You bet. And it’s safe to say the comment section will soon be filled with angry posts from people alleging foreigners hide their buying through corps, kids or casinos. No matter what facts are trotted out, people believe what people believe. Ask the North Koreans.

By the way, CMHC also found that almost half of all buyers in Vancouver and Toronto end up spending more on their home than they budgeted for. Because, of course, some money-laundering Asian predator is just around the corner ready to offer cash.

Without a doubt, the perception of foreign buyers, illicit funds and offbook deals has done much to turn housing booms into gaseous, bloated and unstable bubbles. That’s been fed relentlessly by individual realtors and local media, when the real culprits have been cheap rates, lax lending, financial illiteracy and buckets of house lust. Now we’re pickled in debt with an extreme home ownership rate, more vulnerable than ever to higher money costs, trade wars, economic torpor or Trump.

Ground zero, as you might imagine, will be Vancouver. Governments there have the bulk of people believing they can chase away foreigners, Albertans, and other cheaters while taxing the rich as never before.

They won’t. But all politicians need to do is change perceptions. Then the correction will be epic.

181 comments ↓

#1 duplexinvan on 07.02.18 at 4:02 pm

Garth,
Prices are set at the margin. All it takes is a very few people with bags of money to drive up prices

As I wrote. Perceptions. – Garth

#2 Karl on 07.02.18 at 4:23 pm

Acquaintances of mine just bought a 1.3M semi in East Toronto. First house. Everyone I talk to or hear basically all believe the same; RE in TO is a long term winner.

Don’t know if that is true or not, but there definitely is a FOMO/lemming feel to it.

#3 Parksville Prankster on 07.02.18 at 4:24 pm

Given that folks will do almost anything to stay in a ‘forever’ home, and often fall victim to ‘anchoring’ by not wanting to sell at a perceived loss, the glacial pace of a housing market correction could take a long time. In some cases in the past, the peak to trough residential market corrections have taken 7-10 years. That’s a long wait for many that only have nesting instincts though their mid thirties until their fifties, and that may never actually be owners during their lifetimes in some of the hotter markets. That’s a tough pill to swallow for many, but it really comes down to each person’s individual description of ‘home’.

#4 Bobs ur uncle on 07.02.18 at 4:25 pm

“when 8% of Americans became over-extended and wobbly, the entire market grew unstable. Then crashed.”

“Every study has found remarkably similar totals for foreign buying of domestic real estate… 4.8% of transactions in Vancouver”

Just a suggestion: maybe don’t put these stats in the same post if you want your position to be taken seriously.

Huh? 4% of transactions does not equal 8% of owners. Think, then write. – Garth

#5 Kev on 07.02.18 at 4:25 pm

wrong tree, try tax evasion ie. most not claiming everything they make

See what I mean? – Garth

#6 Smoking Man on 07.02.18 at 4:28 pm

Herdonomics 101

Perception is reality.

#7 The Truth on 07.02.18 at 4:32 pm

It’s not foreigners – it’s wealthy new immigrants. There are multitudes of new residents buying multiple properties. They’re Canadians now sure – but it’s still foreign money and speculation flooding in. Nothing right or wrong about this – just fact, and not reflected in official statistics which only call out non-residents as ‘foreign’ purchasers.

#8 paulo on 07.02.18 at 4:34 pm

Smoke and mirrors:
the current real estate mess is a direct result of essentially free money, poor underwriting of mortgages by the big five and greed and stupidity period.
Add in the ” Lottery” win of tax free profit,courtesy of the
tax exemption on principal residence sale profits you have the perfect storm, hell so many people have 2 or 5 properties titled through there kids dogs and cats its ridiculous.
the Chinese boggy man with suite cases of cash is a myth, same with gangs and money launderers, all smoke and mirrors:
The reality is local home grown players playing and gaming the system for financial gain period.
aided and abetted by poor fiscal policy by the central bank, lax lending, and of course the realatard and cartel gang.
well the party is over,trump will likely drop a nuke on the Canadian economy shortly, and the disappearance of essentially free money will conspire to create a epic correction in real estate values.

#9 Bobs ur uncle on 07.02.18 at 4:37 pm

And 4.8 is closer to 5 than 4.

Speaking of perception. :)

#10 cramar on 07.02.18 at 4:39 pm

Well, shook hands with the PM on Canada Day. Wasn’t going to miss the opportunity of him being a few blocks from my home. Walked over, hung around for a hour-and-a-half, shook his hand, welcomed him to Leamington, then walked home.

When he gave the short live greeting to Ottawa at 12:35, he mentioned he was in the “tomato capital of Canada.” Strange! That is so… pre-Trudeau. I expected him to now say the weed capital, but maybe not politically correct. But he must have shook hands over a thousand times (for a hour) and hundreds of selfies. Garth should be so popular!

Walking home had to stop for his motorcade. Six to eight black SUVs (just like in the movies for U.S. President), racing to the airport in Windsor, then off to Regina, then Yukon. It was all in a day’s work for our PM.

Good Canada Day all round!

#11 -80% bear on 07.02.18 at 4:39 pm

Hi Garth,

What about the fact that Vancouver’s most expensive neighbourhoods also has the most “low income” families per capita? Welfare bums living in Dunbar?

#12 Debtslavecreator on 07.02.18 at 4:39 pm

Main factors in huge bubble in RE ARE
-financial illiterate population who CHOOSE to speculate on tax free capital gain by borrowing massive amounts of artificially cheap credit
-government policies that purposely subsidize credit to keep the fake prosperity going in order to continue siphoning money for the elites at the top
-this includes junk monetary policy and government insurance schemes to subsidize mortgage backed securities to further the debt based Ponzi scheme going
-this massive wall of cheap credit artificially inflated spending, which inflated income (GDP), and resulting tax revenues and compensation for the top layer of FIRE sector elites
-rate of growth in credit averaged 8-12% /yr but wages are growing by about 1.5-2
– sheep are being taxed and robbed but fooled into thinking they’re getting rich
-no one forced you to buy a house !!!
-debt based money is a fraud and designed to rob the masses for the kleptocracy

#13 Suburban Guy on 07.02.18 at 4:42 pm

Regardless of anything you’ve said, Garth, there is no inherent right for foreigners to buy Canadian properties. It is not a “human right”. Why should a Canadian have to compete with a foreigner to purchase property, even it only happens on one single occurrence? We have a very different socialistic society here in Canada and it makes no sense to be competing with other citizens from extremely capitalistic or even corrupt countries. There are many people who would support a Canada for Canadians platform.

#14 For those about to flop... on 07.02.18 at 4:45 pm

I’ll give you another way to look at the insignificance of 100 million of dirty money being washed through the system over a decade.

235 million was wiped off asking prices for the month of May 2018

205 million was wiped off asking prices for the month of June 2018.

Just those two months tallied together in reduction of asking prices dwarfs the 100 million of supposed dirty money washed through the system in a decade.

People were whipped into a frenzy because they wanted to be…

M44BC

#15 Meaganopolis on 07.02.18 at 4:46 pm

I was yelling at the news story yesterday when the guy alleging BC house prices were driven up by Asian money laundering… what is next blaming the alignment of the stars? Very glad to see your sane thoughtful take on it today!

#16 Jimbo on 07.02.18 at 4:53 pm

#1 duplexinvan on 07.02.18 at 4:02 pm
Garth,
Prices are set at the margin. All it takes is a very few people with bags of money to drive up prices

As I wrote. Perceptions. – Garth
#######################
Duplexinvan is ABOSLUTELY CORRECT! Perception or not, bags of money from the chinese dudes have run up prices in VanCity, Markham, Richmond Hill, Agincourt etc etc

I give up. – Garth

#17 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.02.18 at 5:00 pm

I spoke to a co worker today.
One of the other contractors working on the jobsite couldnt buy material at the supplier yesterday.
Credit card declined.
All the other cards maxed….. no cash.
Couldnt work. No material. He went home…..to his brand new recently purchased 800k house
I wonder how many other people out there are hanging on by their fingernails…….
Greaterfools
Its gonna be epic

#18 Fluorine on 07.02.18 at 5:02 pm

Margin price: say it was bought by a foreign buyer, then all the nearby properties raise their prices to match.
All those properties are then bought by locals, until a foreigner buys something else at a higher rate, causing everything around it to jump… etc.

Maybe there were a handful of foreign buyers goosing the jumps, but the vast majority of the Fomos who bought up all the inventory at the new high price were locals. All everyone talked about was real estate for YEARS.

When HGTV and all the papers are blabbing about how real estate always goes up, and GUARANTEED profits can be made just by buying empty condo income properties, and VanCity and other shady lenders vulching desperate mortgagees… it’s not hard to see how the people of Vancouver managed to do this to themselves with very little help from others.

Just look at the total amount of real estate transactions in the time period… there is no way that is not the poor shmucks who went to those real estate seminars snapping up ‘investment’ properties. Pointing out all the dark units at night doesn’t mean the owners are all in China, it just means that there are a ton of desperate locals who are under a lot of stress.

I think that can be seen in the rhetoric coming out of there, and the current political climate. Don’t get me wrong, I think Eby is a hero, and long overdue, and they need to clean up opaque corporate ownership, and lawyer FINTRAC immunity, but don’t draw the wrong conclusions. This is the same crap they were spoonfeeding you with the chinese buyers flying around in helicopters, and the like.

#19 Fluorine on 07.02.18 at 5:04 pm

Flop: You keep doing what you are doing. Don’t mind the squawkers.

#20 Right On on 07.02.18 at 5:06 pm

Those statistics tell the story just like last night. All the opponents conceded defeat in Mexico based on the exist polls starting at 8:13 PM. This amounted to the figure of 00.0561%, and the votes from 156,840 boxes of ballots hadn’t even been counted yet. Trump finally tweeted on the Mexican feed at 10:01 PM to give his best to the new President.

#21 Victoria Real Estate Update on 07.02.18 at 5:13 pm

Housing bubbles always deflate.

With bubbles, the herd always goes from thinking in one extreme way to thinking in the opposite way in an equally extreme manner. This is part of the mechanism that brings prices back to the long-term mean.

The more extreme and emotional the price run-up in a bubble, the more extreme and emotional the inevitable price reversion.

Balance and support are always restored after a market has behaved in an extreme and irrational manner, regardless of the amount of time the price run-up has taken to play out.

Economic problems brought about by extreme debt levels are not solved by loosening lending standards even more to push debt levels to even more extreme levels (think Canada after 2006). This only exacerbates the original problem.

Prices in any market need to be properly supported and the price level that is properly supported by economic fundamentals is the long-term mean.

Hundreds of years of housing bubble history proves this to be true.

Vancouver will indeed be ground zero.

#22 TS on 07.02.18 at 5:14 pm

Garth, come on Man. “Every study has found remarkably similar totals for foreign buying of domestic real estate in these two cities” There has been exactly 1 half assed study (the one you reference from StatsCan) that admitted they didn’t even scratch the surface by omitting all of the usual avenues of numbered companies and buying through PR/Can citizen family members that just happens to be the worst kept secret in the world.

The only thing we know for sure because all the so called studies are garbage is that real estate values and declared income tax are inversely correlated in the GVR. We don’t know how much of that problem is coming from abroad versus Canadians involved in outright tax evasion or massive capital gains exception speculation, but we do know there is a massive problem and that nobody has been willing to figure out where the real cause is. It can’t however be explained simply by saying that people are borrowing over their heads or else income taxes paid would be expected to rise proportionately with real estate values.

#23 Paul on 07.02.18 at 5:17 pm

One sector to blame the BANKS. Agents can’t sell what the banks don’t lend money for.
To get the business they pay for appraisals, give cash back, go to the buyer’s home to take applications, at times lend the money for the deposit and wait for the funds from their rrsp they cashed.

#24 Honky Donkey Blues on 07.02.18 at 5:17 pm

I think the trajectory of reason for buyers will soon reach – “why did you lend me the money knowing I couldn’t afford it?”

#25 Phylis on 07.02.18 at 5:19 pm

Another version. Perception is everything, reality has nothing to do with it.

#26 North Burnaby on 07.02.18 at 5:20 pm

Just bought a 3bdr condo for $1.1M, whats next?

#27 Will on 07.02.18 at 5:21 pm

https://www.thestar.com/vancouver/2018/06/26/data-shows-bcs-biggest-hubs-for-globally-owned-real-estate.html

https://globalnews.ca/news/4306119/marc-cohodes-money-laundering-vancouver/

#28 Zapstrap on 07.02.18 at 5:24 pm

Used to say at work …”it’s not what you do that matters … it’s what they think you do that really matters.” Some could see it … some couldn’t.

#29 Leo Trollstoy on 07.02.18 at 5:26 pm

Ppl r dum

That’s why most are poor

When a person says prices are the fault of foreign money, I know they’re going to be poor. They’ve basically admitted it

Lulz

#30 TS on 07.02.18 at 5:31 pm

#26 Will – Round of applause for Will.

“Anyone who estimates the amount of foreign ownership of real estate in Canada will be wrong,” James Cohen, the director of the anti-corruption watchdog, wrote. “Everyone will be wrong because in Canada, a foreign investor can pour money into Canadian real estate through a Canadian company they set up either federally, provincially or territorially, using a Canadian as a nominee director/shareholder/beneficiary, without disclosing the true beneficial owner.”

And yet, we still pay StatsCan millions to put together a garbage study that is worse than doing no study because people think that they have it figured out and they definitely do not.

Why is nobody talking about a public registry? Probably because it would let the cat out of the bag.

#31 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 07.02.18 at 5:40 pm

#1 duplexinvan on 07.02.18 at 4:02 pm
Garth,
Prices are set at the margin. All it takes is a very few people with bags of money to drive up prices

As I wrote. Perceptions. – Garth
…………………………………….

David Rosenberg has issued yet another piece of blistering common sense (which most mainstream and sellside economists seem to lack in wholesale amounts these days), in which he explains why the action at the margin is all that matters for asset prices and all that follows.
Supply and demand at the margin in the real estate market consists of those who have “For Sale” signs on the lawn and those who are actively looking to buy. The price of the entire market is in their hands, not in the hands of those who are confidently sitting tight. This is important because it was the action at the margin that took prices parabolic, and all homeowners benefited during the bubble.

From Arthur Zeikel;
“As all of us were taught, but most of us have long since forgotten, economic change occurs at the margin, where the action takes place… individuals who can think on the margin always have an advantage over those who cannot.”

#32 Wrk.dover on 07.02.18 at 5:41 pm

The last comment yesterday was watcha mini again.

#33 For those about to flop... on 07.02.18 at 5:49 pm

#19 Fluorine on 07.02.18 at 5:04 pm
Flop: You keep doing what you are doing. Don’t mind the squawkers.

/////////////

Thanks Flu.

Also ,I do believe I owe a thanks to yvrmc for a really funny and positive message on the previous page.

Crowdie,you’ve supported the free movement of information I bring from the start.

Anyone on here that tries to ride shotgun on here with me will be attacked by the same hecklers I face.

I appreciate you guys sticking up for me but it is not necessary.

When Boom died I had a hard decision to make.

Do I continue down the same path and try and be all buddy,buddy with everyone.

Or do I ruffle some feathers and try and make a small difference on this blog and in this city.

My supporters can make their own decisions on whether they continue to fight beside me.

This is just something I have to do…

M44BC

#34 -=jwk=- on 07.02.18 at 5:52 pm

It’s not foreigners – it’s wealthy new immigrants. There are multitudes of new residents buying multiple properties. They’re Canadians now sure – but it’s still foreign money and speculation flooding in. Nothing right or wrong about this – just fact, and not reflected in official statistics which only call out non-residents as ‘foreign’ purchasers.

Quoted for Truth. Seen this with my own eyes 6 times now. And the BC ‘foreigners’ tax will just mean everyone becomes a resident, or uses one, to complete their purchase.

#35 Jacko on 07.02.18 at 6:01 pm

My experience with the issue is my colleagues. We are business owners and executives. We all own multiple houses and condos. It’s not right, but it was a great, easy investment.

When you hit financial freedom day in life and everything is covered, why not jump into residential real estate to make extra dough. That was a few years ago’s mentality.

Some of my colleagues own 4 or 5 houses/condos. It shorted the market and made FOMO even crazier. I believe most are selling now, but it’s like the casino, you never hear about when people lose money, only when they win. So, none of them are talking right now.

For everyone’s sake, including my millennial children, I hope normalcy reigns sooner than later.

I have no idea what percent of sales and ownership this makes in the overall market, but I for sure know it’s true for at least 5 close friends who own 15, over and above their own homes and cottages. Most are in names of wives, children, numbered companies, etc.

That’s my contribution and we are not foreigners. Just full Canadian citizens taking an opportunity when it was available. As with the USA years ago, this can bite them now the market is changing. I know many that did this a decade ago in Florida, Arizona and Nevada to lose them all. Canadian dollar was at par and the USA market was exploding. Here we go again, just north of the border this time.

#36 PeterL on 07.02.18 at 6:06 pm

Remember the housing bubble in the 80s? That time, it was claimed to be due to Hong Kong Chinese setting up safe alternatives before the handover.

The taxman thought otherwise and started going after flippers (there was a thick book of real estate transactions in the lobby of the taxation office in downtown Vancouver). And it turned out (after the bubble burst) that there were far fewer Hong Kong buyers than popular sentiment had believed … which is not to mean that overseas buyers had contributed nothing to the bubble, just that they were minor players.

Time to re-read “Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds”.

#37 Deplorable Dude on 07.02.18 at 6:10 pm

Was in Dollar Store on Saturday buying el’cheapo Canadian flags for Canada Day. Passed a couple…guy being very vocal about ‘Not buying American sh1t”……wonder if he realised almost everything in the store is made in China????

I’m bemused at this sudden patriotic Canadian purchasing desire to stick it to the US tariffs….shouldn’t one want to buy Canadian regardless?

Meanwhile Mexico just elected Hugo Chavez Mk2,, ,one of the few surviving politicians who weren’t assassinated in the recent election……election promises of amnesty for the Drug Cartels, and encouraging mass migration to the USA. He’s handed Mexico over to the drug cartels.

Add up all his socialist agenda items….and the USA will have a Venezuela type situation on it’s southern border soon…Trump needs to get that wall up….and fast.

#38 SoggyShorts on 07.02.18 at 6:10 pm

#14 For those about to flop… on 07.02.18 at 4:45 pm
I’ll give you another way to look at the insignificance of 100 million of dirty money being washed through the system over a decade.

235 million was wiped off asking prices for the month of May 2018

205 million was wiped off asking prices for the month of June 2018.
***************************
THIS is what I was talking about every time I mention your pink posts- THIS is excellent information
The details of a single address changing hands at a loss is interesting, but not altogether helpful without more, similar data seen together
Putting the total reductions for a month together like you just did is fantastic, and I’d love it if your posts had more of the same.

#39 bullwinkle on 07.02.18 at 6:10 pm

Gee I guess that there’s a lot of over extended people
buying up houses only not to live in them. Imagine that. When BC introduce a 15% tax sales slumped and demand moved to Toronto. When Ontario introduced a similar tax it stopped the market in its tracks with some demand moving to Montreal.

Canada and Australia have the same overpriced market.
Wonder what they have in common?
We also have the laxest money laundering laws around.
Also the Statscan report on foreign ownership states
offshore buyers as non residents. According to the following link non residents isn’t very clearly defined.
If you been in the country for more than 183 days you’re a resident

https://www.canada.ca/en/revenue-agency/services/tax/international-non-residents/information-been-moved/determining-your-residency-status.html

#40 Bobs ur uncle on 07.02.18 at 6:13 pm

From Will’s link at #27:

“The statistical agency released the first batch of data in December 2017, showing that 7.1 per cent of property in Vancouver is owned by non-residents”

7.1, but not a factor at all eh? I guess 8 is the magical percentage of ownshership that actually moves markets?

I get that you want to discourage locals from getting in over their heads, but you have to accept that, by your own logic, there has to be an effect from foreign money. It’s silly to suggest otherwise.

#41 Dave Ahem on 07.02.18 at 6:23 pm

We did an Airbnb in Richmond BC a few years back and it was a bizarre ghost town. Mansions sitting empty with no cars in the driveways, no lights in the windows. Empty streets and empty sidewalks in the middle of August. We played a round of golf at a city run pitch-n-putt and the facilities were fully staffed, gorgeous and totally empty. We played the course twice because we were the only ones on it for 2 hours. The streets were clean and the grass was cut and there was nobody there. It felt post-apocalyptic.

Spend a week in Richmond and it’s hard not to wonder where all the owners are. It’s hard not to wonder why families aren’t there since it’s so clean and beautiful and safe and the city facilities are so wonderful. Then you find out the houses cost five million dollars and so the city is making a fortune in taxes and there’s no garbage to pick up and nobody to use the libraries and parks but they’re really well funded. It feels like Westworld.

Don’t believe me rent a house there for a week and see for yourself.

#42 Cheesetoast on 07.02.18 at 6:24 pm

We let 300,000 + new immigrants into Canada every year, virtually all settle in GTA and greater Vancouver area – how is housing in these areas supposed to keep up with the demand?

Immigration has not changed substantially in decades at less than 1% of the population annually. Where did your people come from? – Garth

#43 bullwinkle on 07.02.18 at 6:27 pm

Also from Will’s link at #27:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/how-much-real-estate-do-foreigners-really-own-statscan-got-it-wrong/article37439665/

#44 OCAP Ontario Coalition Against Poverty on 07.02.18 at 6:31 pm

Everybody knows that Doug Ford is going to cut welfare by 95%, slash healthcare by the billions, and burn the salaries of teachers by 50% so that his cronies in real estate will pillage our greenbelt for condos and penthouses. The Time for a Trotsky revolution is NOW! SAY NO to Doug Ford and his neocon agenda!

Too late. – Garth

#45 Barbo on 07.02.18 at 6:37 pm

#1 duplexinvan on 07.02.18 at 4:02 pm
Garth,
Prices are set at the margin. All it takes is a very few people with bags of money to drive up prices

As I wrote. Perceptions. – Garth
*********
If they think its a 100 million dollar washup, it probably is more like 500 million and at 5% down, that equals 10 billions in RE, that’s more than enough to create a margin set FOMO, boosted by Real Estate people. I’ll side with duplexinvan on this one.

#46 Casino Market on 07.02.18 at 6:37 pm

The buying spree can best be contributed by past events, where family members and relatives living in Canada for years established the example going back to the early 1970’s. The younger generation saw and heard all the money made in real estate by holding, flipping, or buying several properties to rent out in a booming market. All ethnic groups were involved including lawyers, accountants, real estate agents, and mortgage brokers. The millennials thought now its our turn and how can we loose, so they went ballistic with cheap money because real estate only goes up, and attempted to duplicate the past with greed and passion. Most of the buying came from the local community, and very little from foreign elements within the GTA. This is how I see it, but cannot speak for the Vancouver area.

#47 NEVER GIVE UP on 07.02.18 at 6:41 pm

Lets say for arguments sake there are only 100 houses for sale at $1 million each. In a balanced market there are 100 buyers in a 2 month time period.

Let in some outside buyers escaping a command economy or simply trying to hide illegal wealth from the Old Soviet Union. Lets say that added 5 extra buyers. any time you have more buyers than sellers the price will go up.

Lets add some Fraudulent local real estate board, some agencies and some cash starved local Newspapers.

Add in some Criminally minded bankers who know very well what is going on and want to party.

Add a Federal Government that wants to win an election and (releases the hounds) of CMHC to do their bidding for the banks leaving them free to loan money to anyone who can hold a pen.

How about adding a Fraud infested Provincial government that is intent on cashing in on this party even they know it will trounce the hopes and dreams of their very own children.

There you have only part of the forces at work.

In my lifetime of bullshit detection, I have never seen more greed, avarice or eating of their own young.

These (Personal Real Estate Corporations) (pronounced “PRICKS”) and all of the above should enjoy all the money they now have that the young people of Vancouver and Toronto have borrowed to put in their pockets to enjoy their retirement.

These young people will never pay these loans off.

In summation there are many reasons for the bubble but most of the reasons are simply distortions of the honest rules based economy.

#48 conan on 07.02.18 at 6:42 pm

Belgium 3 Japan 2

Great game!!!

Belgium plays Brazil next. Good luck with that.

https://youtu.be/wPTgvamBXUs?t=4

#49 NoName on 07.02.18 at 6:47 pm

Hey flopie what is going on in that basketball match Phillipines vs Australia, fight than match continue with 5 players for Australia an 2 for Phillipines…

#50 the ryguy on 07.02.18 at 6:54 pm

DELETED

#51 50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE! on 07.02.18 at 6:56 pm

Hey Toronturds!

Less Than 100 Days Until Your Next Loser Hockey Season!

Get Your Overpriced Tickets Now! Pay Whatever!

Because It’s Different in Toronto!

Losing=Winning :)

(Hey – you can just pay for them with the HELOC on your empty, overpriced investment condo that will be falling apart within ten years, or the slanty semi that you gambled on like a herd animal, ignoring your low-class financially illiterate neighbours – easy peasy!)

October will be here before you know it, and the puck will drop right along with your housing prices :)

G-OWE LEAFS, G-OWE!!!!!!!!

#52 Allison Jean Munn Barber on 07.02.18 at 6:59 pm

P.S. Please don’t refer to the leaders of our Province ‘Dippers’. If you want to use disparaging monikers, the ‘party’ that deserves them is the BC Liberal Party. Try: Crooked to the Core.

#53 Long-Time Lurker on 07.02.18 at 6:59 pm

So what’s with Kim’s hand gesture in the photo? Is he a member of a secret society? A gang?

#54 C. DUNLOP on 07.02.18 at 7:03 pm

And because of a total inability to look forward or to do something that might, God forgive, alienate the voters that put them in their plush jobs politicians and ourselves tolerated years of low rates that made buying too easy. The ONLY way to control buying and house pricing is by controlling the rates given for mortgage money. What suckers we all are falling for the BS fed to us from top to bottom.

#55 Long-Time Lurker on 07.02.18 at 7:03 pm

SPECTRE?

Calling 007!

#56 For those about to flop... on 07.02.18 at 7:04 pm

CONFIRMED PINK SNOW

I just want to get something out of the way right off the bat with this one.

I was told that they paid 2.98 by someone that tried to help me a while back and when they finally got around to updating it the loss is not as dramatic as suspected.

Numbers are written down wrong,mistakes are made,deals are broken.

I have seen people do segments of what I do here and on my blog but not from start to finish,double checking the result and then presenting them.

Anyway let’s check the result of this luxury condo sale and I because of the length of time involved I might need some help because compared to a lot of you guys I am a mathematical muppet.

The details…

103 5151 Brighouse Way Richmond

Paid 2.58 October 2013

Sold 2.68 February 2018

Originally asking 3.78

Assessment 3.38

So they held out for a while but didn’t get anywhere near asking but only took a loss after expenses.

Approximately 40k

Where this one is a little different than most of my cases which are normally resolved in a couple of years,this one basically dragged on for 4 and a half.

What could they have been doing with this money in the meantime?

I guess it is plausible to say the loss zone is over 200k.

In my mind the main story with this one is not the loss but how much it went below the assessment of 3.38

700k or over 20% below.

Someone will bail me out if I have botched the diagnosis.

Richmond is not a healthy patient according to Dr Flop…

M44BC

Sold for 2.68 on February1 st,2018

103 5151 Brighouse Way Richmond . Paid 2.58 October 2013

Assessment 3.38

2017-03-08 : $3,788,000
2017-09-01 : $2,980,000

https://www.zolo.ca/richmond-real-estate/5151-brighouse-way/a103

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/RDAwMDBKUFFHWg==

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Feel free to make a donation.

Flop For Fox Fund…

http://www.terryfox.org/get-involved/ways-to-give/

#57 BK on 07.02.18 at 7:08 pm

#7 is right. I browse open houses all the time around Coquitlam/poco. 95% of the people there are not speaking English. Wealthy immigrants 100%

Breaking news: not all Canadians speak English (like my wife’s parents). Who knew? – Garth

#58 -80% bear on 07.02.18 at 7:08 pm

DELETED

#59 Lost...but not leased on 07.02.18 at 7:10 pm

crowdedelevatorfartz is a popular dude…with smoking man clones cheering them on.

#60 Duck Duck Goose on 07.02.18 at 7:13 pm

Its been widely reported that 1 trillion dollars fled China in the last decade. It went somewhere.

#61 Teresa on 07.02.18 at 7:13 pm

My neighbour is an ed assistant in the local elementary school. She told me she makes $31k per year. Her landlord wanted to sell and told her if she would give them $280k for the house she could have it. Somehow someone gave her a mortgage for 9 times her income. We live in a small town in southwestern ontario. There is no foreign money here. Just financially illiterate homegrowns.

#62 For those about to flop... on 07.02.18 at 7:15 pm

#37 SoggyShorts on 07.02.18 at 6:10 pm
#14 For those about to flop… on 07.02.18 at 4:45 pm
I’ll give you another way to look at the insignificance of 100 million of dirty money being washed through the system over a decade.

235 million was wiped off asking prices for the month of May 2018

205 million was wiped off asking prices for the month of June 2018.
***************************
THIS is what I was talking about every time I mention your pink posts- THIS is excellent information
The details of a single address changing hands at a loss is interesting, but not altogether helpful without more, similar data seen together
Putting the total reductions for a month together like you just did is fantastic, and I’d love it if your posts had more of the same.

/////////////////

Sorry Soggy,this is the last time I am gonna reply to you.

I dumped you and a few others in my Do not reply to folder.

I’m sure you’ll get over it quickly as there are lots of people on here to exchange information with.

Maybe you should of been more encouraging yesterday instead of disparaging me and hoeing the boots in the last month or so.

It’s my project ,but I let people ride shotgun and make suggestions and try to keep as many people happy but not everyone wants the same information.

I’ve said before I will take constructive criticism and try to modify certain things if I can.

I will not be anyone’s doormat.

Anyway,good luck with everything.

Peace,Flop…

M44BC

#63 leebow on 07.02.18 at 7:16 pm

It’s in our nature to come up with explanations. Doesn’t matter if we understand the true nature of events, or not.

Clearly, the rising prices are due to the extending life expectancy. People will live forever, imagine how quickly that will exhaust housing supply. Plus, Garth occupies multiple residences. The only solution is to buy before it’s too late.

Similar effect in pigeons.
[i]
A pigeon is brought to a stable state of hunger by reducing it to 75 percent of its weight when well fed. It is put into an experimental cage for a few minutes each day. A food hopper attached to the cage may be swung into place so that the pigeon can eat from it. A solenoid and a timing relay hold the hopper in place for five sec. at each reinforcement.

If a clock is now arranged to present the food hopper at regular intervals with no reference whatsoever to the bird’s behavior, operant conditioning usually takes place. In six out of eight cases the resulting responses were so clearly defined that two observers could agree perfectly in counting instances. One bird was conditioned to turn counter-clockwise about the cage, making two or three turns between reinforcements. Another repeatedly thrust its head into one of the upper corners of the cage. A third developed a ‘tossing’ response, as if placing its head beneath an invisible bar and lifting it repeatedly. Two birds developed a pendulum motion of the head and body, in which the head was extended forward and swung from right to left with a sharp movement followed by a somewhat slower return. The body generally followed the movement and a few steps might be taken when it was extensive. Another bird was conditioned to make incomplete pecking or brushing movements directed toward but not touching the floor. None of these responses appeared in any noticeable strength during adaptation to the cage or until the food hopper was periodically presented. In the remaining two cases, conditioned responses were not clearly marked.[/i]

#64 Reality is stark on 07.02.18 at 7:20 pm

Doug Ford will have no effect on real estate.
Let’s hope he can curtail public service spending which is out of control.
The deep discounts in housing start in September when the flood of new listings becomes parabolic. Believe me everyone will be talking about real estate. To get the sector back on it’s feet there will be home renovation tax credits from all levels of government. This is likely a poor way for the government to spend money since it really doesn’t add productive capacity. We had a wonderful opportunity to educate our young towards IT opportunities and wasted it creating social justice warriors who only know how to cry in family court.
The government failed us for short term gain but will rape housing for every last nickel.
No real wealth has been created.
The white elephant in the room is the Diabetes epidemic which is forcing governments to charge for more “non-essential” health services.
A lot of the social justice warriors we educated are also morbidly obese.
People walk around in this country thinking we are a superior nation. The reality is that we have created a polarized dysfunctional populace and the prescription of anti-depressant medication due to the impending recession is likely to skyrocket.

#65 majik on 07.02.18 at 7:20 pm

#35 Jacko on 07.02.18 at 6:01 pm

Lots of colleagues in the exact same boat, including one moister who is in the clutches of REIN. They own multiple condos and are currently looking to leverage them further into multi-million dollar mortgages.

These folk aren’t investment bankers or c-suite types, just regular folk with admin type desk jobs that pay average salaries. Scariest of all, none of these guys actually live in any of the properties they own, they’re all renters too, it’s a disaster waiting to happen.

#66 Danny on 07.02.18 at 7:24 pm

Garth very good summary as you say: ” when the real culprits have been cheap rates, tax lending, financial illiteracy and buckets of house lust. ”

But wait…..we are now entering the ” Slogan Era of Ford ”
Isn’t he going to save the day?

Hey Doug —–When are we getting the 10 cents off a litre in gas….you promised? Many voted for you for this introductory offer….”Save gas $ with Ford ”

Or he is too busy screwing up the environment…..more than usual any way with his silly statement ” I believe in climate change “….when in his simple mind is saying ” But I don’t care”

Interesting to see when Doug will pontificate with another mindless slogan about the serious housing and debt questions that you Garth, have honestly (without slogans) sounded the alarm many times.

But I don’t expect illiterate Ford to read or understand what Garth exposes practically daily.

Doug will be more focused on making his campaign funding contributors…become richer . And they will be at his door…..lapping.

#67 Got out in time on 07.02.18 at 7:27 pm

I cant help but not to think that the real bad guys in all of this are the ones that are not allowing proper information to surface and they use that to manipulate to their advantage. For example realtors cartel that is keeping stronghold on data.

One of the things that frightens me the most is the fact that people become irrational once they are able to see behind the curtain and realize the size of the wizard pulling the strings. And also the fact that sometimes the manipulation becomes so large that it can not be contained any longer and it self destructs like it is happening now with our real estate market. Whether it is domestic buyers who are inflating the bubble or foreign buyers or dirty money the fact is that jig is up and our real estate market and quite possibly our economy is going down and I am not so sure that there is a proper cover that people can take and be spared from it. If it is/was domestic buyers shame on our banks and regulators for allowing it to come to this. Conversely if it is/was foreign buyers or dirty money shame on our government and regulators for allowing it to happen.
Someone with enough knowledge and authority on the subject should write the book regarding how did Canada gave birth to the largest asset bubble in the history of mankind(Garth I believe you are the only person who can write this book without bias) so that future generations can learn from it.
In the meantime there is just a lot of hurt and pent up emotions and not enough facts. See it for yourself below.

https://www.nationalobserver.com/2018/06/30/opinion/stop-whitewashing-bloodstains-bcs-dirty-money-laundromat

#68 Trojan House on 07.02.18 at 7:27 pm

#43 OCAP Ontario Coalition Against Poverty on 07.02.18

What???? Who’s been fearmongering you? One of the dumbest comments posted on here in a while.

#69 Nemesis on 07.02.18 at 7:31 pm

“Every study has found remarkably similar totals for foreign buying of domestic real estate in these two cities.” – HonGT

#YouCanSayThatAgain!… #HolidayMischief,Or… #SomeStudiesAreMoreCredibleThanOthers…

[ThinkPol] – “If the Chinese market doesn’t want it, I have no interest in it” – Ian Gillespie

https://thinkpol.ca/2018/05/02/chinese-market-doesnt-want-no-interest-vancouver-developer/

[VancouverSun] – Mainland Chinese ‘dominating’ high-end Vancouver real estate market

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Mainland+Chinese+dominating+high+Vancouver+real+estate+market/11282771/story.html

[CBC] – Foreign buyers crushing Vancouver home dreams as governments do little: study

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/sfu-real-estate-study-foreign-buyers-1.3572499

[FP] – Foreign buyers are fuelling a seismic spike in Vancouver’s luxury housing market, realtors say

https://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/china-buyers-vancouver-housing

#70 Musty Basement Dweller on 07.02.18 at 7:31 pm

Isn’t it fairly easy to pull out statistics on cash real estate deals vs those that have significant loans and debt associated? That would be an interesting stat to see for Vancouver and Toronto. BTW I visited a loans officer at the big green bank in Vancouver last week. The first thing she said as I sat down is that her bosses at the bank are clearly predicting a real estate correction. (although she personally didn’t agree with it). I found that interesting. Then, as a typical banker she proceeded to explain to me that in order to borrow money I would have to prove that I didn’t need to. That’s kind of what I am used to from bankers in years past.

#71 Moses71 on 07.02.18 at 7:35 pm

4.8% and counting of foreigner influenced us in line with what percentage of households can change a market.
And too bad to keep hearing the reverberations of the cheap house interest and incentivized Harper help to buy a house influences are still rearing their consequences on us

#72 Opinion Article on 07.02.18 at 7:37 pm

#42 bullwinkle – The major premise in that article is wrong, so can you identify it?

#73 Nemesis on 07.02.18 at 7:38 pm

#Denouement…

[ColonialTimes] – Real-estate refugees flock to Vancouver Island

…”New figures from the Vancouver Island Real Estate Board show that Lower Mainlanders last year accounted for a record 26 per cent of home buyers on the Island north of Greater Victoria — up from 10 per cent just three years ago.

Four out of five are buying homes as their principal residence.

“They’re cashing out,” said Don McClintock, a Duncan real estate agent and president of the real estate board. “Not necessarily retiring; they may have a portable business.”

Most are middle-class — not affluent, by any means — fleeing the noise, traffic and humanity, and reaping a tidy profit in the process.”…

http://www.timescolonist.com/real-estate/real-estate-refugees-flock-to-vancouver-island-1.23354022

#74 Garth Doesn't Know the West on 07.02.18 at 7:47 pm

That report was a 100 million (seriously watered down) amount that flowed through casinos.

Part two of the investigation which is wayyyyyy more many times more volume of money flow through as per money laundering lawyer Christine Duhaime is about to start.

The real estate portion of the investigation is just starting.

My report shows $695 billion dollars of laundered money through BC real estate since 2011 alone.

This isn’t the margin. It is basically the entire market.

Which, is why Vancouver real estate is in serious trouble right now.

‘Your report’? Who are you? Link the report. – Garth

#75 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 07.02.18 at 7:52 pm

#52 Long-Time Lurker on 07.02.18 at 6:59 pm
So what’s with Kim’s hand gesture in the photo? Is he a member of a secret society? A gang?
……………………..

He’s better now. Rodman brought him a stool softener on his last visit.

#76 Gaga on 07.02.18 at 8:02 pm

Garth, don’t be naive.
It’s too easy to buy here using different schemes
This is criminal money, you think these people are stupid and dont know how to bypass?
Canada is a safe heaven for criminal money and it’s been like that for a while

#77 Stone on 07.02.18 at 8:07 pm

Lately it’s the latter who are much in vogue following a sketchy report done for the BC Dippers alleging $100 million in dirty money was laundered through BC casinos over the past decade. Wow. A hundred mill. Sounds like a lot. And so everyone thinks (a) it all went into residential real estate and (b) that’s why houses cost a pile.

But, alas, it’s a myth.

————

I totally agree. Once the money launderers have whitewashed the money, they want to keep it nice, safe, and legitimate. Residential real estate is not the place at this time.

So where would they put their cleaned money to keep it safe?

A 60/40 balanced and globally diversified portfolio perchance?

Hmmmm….quite plausible my dear Watson. Actually, elementary.

#78 JT on 07.02.18 at 8:07 pm

Garth, I think you must have either had fun or dread writing this one, knowing what kind of comments it would attract. I see this comment section as a reality check that the trend towards conspiracy theories, extremely divided and uneducated political views, tribalism; and uncouth, unfiltered expression via anonymous media are as problematic in Canada as in North Korea, Russia, the US, Europe…

#79 Lost...but not leased on 07.02.18 at 8:07 pm

#40 Dave Ahem…

Good points re: Richmond..

IMHO. Gov’t at all levels have lost their way insofar as original mandates(aka as servants of the public)

They have morphed into the worst forms of corporatism…aka monopolies.

Local Gov’ts have set up quasi “Federal Reserve” via zoning powers…abusing them to flood the market with higher density (regardless of actual market demand) the ad nauseum fees and ultimate property taxes enrich City coffers which allows them to indulge in various pet projects, all the while setting ALL their constituents up for collapse in equity as the RE market makes it delayed (but not denied) market correction.

The ultimate salt in the wound is if for whatever reason you can’t pay your property taxes…Gov’t is literally first in line as creditor.

Multiply THAT by potential orders of magnitude of other citizens in the same boat.

#80 Ex-Cowtown on 07.02.18 at 8:10 pm

Garth, I’m not saying anything about whether the statistics that you quote re: casino money laundering and RE money laundering are right or wrong. It doesn’t matter; you still goofed. You begin with the assumption that the $100 million in casino funds all went into the RE market.

There are many, many, many ways to launder $$$ in RE. The casino, although easy to spot and dramatic is a red herring. The larger issue is what have the banks, trusts and credit unions including HSBC been up to in these shenanigans? Nobody has looked into that yet.

On a side note, I find it cutely ironic how you view a 0.01% share in the RE market as laughablly insignificant, but that a tiny shift in a 0.04% trace gas in the atmosphere (as claimed by Global Warming believers) can make you blind, curve your spine, lose the war for the Allies and end all life on Earth as we know it. Kind of puts it in perspective doesn’t it?

#81 Hot Money on 07.02.18 at 8:11 pm

There are many forms of hot money coming from different sources. Likewise, the purposes are varied depending on the holding pattern needed. Some might be used for long term commercial investments, or even buying a home to be used for permanent living at a future time. These are cold investments that may be legitimate. The hot money has two end goals, which are control over the term, and washing it clean. Real Estate purchases are out, but the financing of Real Estate has these attributes in many forms. I say from experience that very little Real Estate will be bought with so-called hot money in Canada.

#82 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 07.02.18 at 8:14 pm

I can smell the fear you dirty SHYSTERs. Your lies stink and have ruined thousands of families. Housing will crash so hard that SHYSTERS will deny they were SHYSTERS for fear of reprisals. It could get that bad you evil monsters.

Enough. We get it. – Garth

#83 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 07.02.18 at 8:16 pm

You dirty SHYSTERS. Ford will keep the green belt because it benefits developers and the SHYSTER industry.

#84 acdel on 07.02.18 at 8:18 pm

#56 Got out in time

Excellent response! Completely agree with you..

#85 Wrk.dover on 07.02.18 at 8:19 pm

#152 last post and #62 this evening, copied and pasted right off the web….irritating.

#86 conan on 07.02.18 at 8:20 pm

#52 Long-Time Lurker on 07.02.18 at 6:59 pm
So what’s with Kim’s hand gesture in the photo? Is he a member of a secret society? A gang?

His hands are spelling ” hood”

Kim’s gang robs from the rich and gives to the poor. Meaning, Kim.

Kim is tight with Trump. They have an understanding.
Hype the talks and make them go on forever.

#87 jess on 07.02.18 at 8:29 pm

A non-resident owner is someone who has a primary residence in another country. This could be a foreign buyer that’s never set foot in Canada, using the property strictly as an investment. It also includes Canadians that owned, and picked up to move elsewhere. Ruthless speculator buying homes to hold and keep empty for appreciation? Non-resident owner. Canadian that keeps their home while they work in the US for a few years? Also non-resident.

look at 2016-2017 #’s
https://betterdwelling.com/city/vancouver/foreign-buyers-45-25-billion-worth-vancouver-real-estate/

#88 Shawn Allen on 07.02.18 at 8:42 pm

Hey Trump, Tariffs Protect Weak Losers!

What say Canada unilaterally drops all tariffs to zero (most are close to zero anyhow under NAFTA and or WTO) and sends a loud message to Trump that tariffs are only needed by weak loser countries and companies and their employees?

#89 Shawn Allen on 07.02.18 at 8:45 pm

Can native Canadians compete with and benefit from immigrants?

Yes, the vast majority (over 90%) certainly can. The bottom 5% or whatever are right to complain though.

#90 majik on 07.02.18 at 8:47 pm

#73 Garth Doesn’t Know the West
‘Your report’? Who are you? Link the report. – Garth
—————

Wasn’t Dan Perrin’s report on the BC real estate regulators due on June 15th? I haven’t seen sight of it since the investigation was announced by the dippers a long while back. German’s report was a distraction, tip of the iceberg stuff. Perrin’s recommendations are going to touch on the fundamentals of the real estate business in BC.

Whether property funding is local or foreign, BC real estate is corrupt to the core either way. I’m not even talking about laundering though, just the multitude of regulations busting practices that realtors have used to pump the market.

#91 Sierts on 07.02.18 at 8:51 pm

Foreign money…

Well, I’m not a chinese, but I’m (from your point of view) a foreigner.

Please, somebody explain to me, why should I, or any other foreigner buy a house in Canada, at your fairytale prices?
(taking into account, that the same sum would buy me two houses in the US, or three in Germany or France, or even four in Spain)
Do you people think the whole world wants to come to Canada for free weed and low taxes?

#92 akashic record on 07.02.18 at 8:52 pm

Everybody knows.

Listened to it over and over again, and reading it here, appearing on a regular schedule on slow news days.

The Leonard Cohen version is still better.

Turning this version to a song would allow to replay it on demand, without rewording the same thing every time, saving the pain of repetition and wasting of the most precious asset.

#93 When the Whip Comes Down on 07.02.18 at 8:57 pm

#73 Garth doesn’t know the west – yes pls let’s see your “report”. Give some credibility to your claim rather than Just an assertion of your claim. Otherwise you are just a fart In a windstorm.

#94 Rothschild on 07.02.18 at 8:58 pm

July 1, 2018 Teaser:

https://globalnews.ca/video/4307439/ex-wall-street-short-sellers-drastic-advice-for-saving-vancouvers-economy-and-itself

___________________________________________

That report was a 100 million (seriously watered down) amount that flowed through casinos.

Part two of the investigation which is wayyyyyy more many times more volume of money flow through as per money laundering lawyer Christine Duhaime is about to start.

The real estate portion of the investigation is just starting.

My report shows $695 billion dollars of laundered money through BC real estate since 2011 alone.

This isn’t the margin. It is basically the entire market.

Which, is why Vancouver real estate is in serious trouble right now.

‘Your report’? Who are you? Link the report. – Garth

#95 For those about to flop... on 07.02.18 at 8:58 pm

CONFIRMED PINK SNOW

Well ,once again b.c assessment only seems to be updating certain ones.

Not too sure if it is conspiracy or coincidence ,but we go with what we’ve got.

I have had a few deals fall apart as well.

This one is only a light dusting ,but let’s review what happened.

The details…

7200 Lucas Rd ,Richmond

Paid 2.07 July 2017

Sold for 2.15 December 2017

Last asking 2.38

They took a long time to update this one ,and I did not expect them to take a loss at all after having such a healthy margin between the last ask I saw and the original buy price.

Those pesky expenses would have most likely left them out of pocket.

They started off asking 2.5 and settled for 2.15,and it definitely softened the blow but considering they only picked it up in July ,and despatched of it in December taking a 30k plus hit before opportunity cost ,would knock most people out of their stride.

The force was not with them on this one…

M44BC

2017-07-17 : $2,500,000

2017-08-12 : $2,480,000

https://www.zolo.ca/richmond-real-estate/7200-lucas-road

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDA1V1NUOA==

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Feel free to make a donation.

Flop For Fox Fund…

http://www.terryfox.org/get-involved/ways-to-give/

#96 Tony on 07.02.18 at 9:04 pm

People who know nothing or are just plain stupid look for one thing that will make them rich. This is the mistake the poor people always make. This is why people who buy homes at peak prices always lose.

#97 Rifles on 07.02.18 at 9:16 pm

The academic research conducted by those mentioned in #1 on this article’s list is worthy of mention too. Certainly not the work of swivel eyed racists or charlatans. Independent academic research is a useful foil for the likes of CMHC and the off shore money deniers. Inconvenient? https://www.moneysense.ca/spend/real-estate/8-factors-that-really-mess-up-vancouvers-real-estate-prices/

#98 Stormy Daniels on 07.02.18 at 9:18 pm

“Everybody knows” ?

Not yet. But everybody WILL know, Garth.

All about you, and me, and Bandit, and my poodle. That day in the dog park.

$130,000.

Or the Lunenburg Enquirer gets an interesting call.

#99 Nemesis on 07.02.18 at 9:18 pm

#JustAnotherShunnyDay…

[CBC] – ‘High roller’ suspected of laundering $855M arrested in B.C., ordered deported

https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.4695231

#100 Smoking Man on 07.02.18 at 9:27 pm

The #WalkAway movement is the new in vogue counterculture and it is certain death to modern day insane liberalism.

Good Riddance.

#101 akashic record on 07.02.18 at 9:27 pm

#88 Shawn Allen on 07.02.18 at 8:45 pm

Can native Canadians compete with and benefit from immigrants?

Yes, the vast majority (over 90%) certainly can. The bottom 5% or whatever are right to complain though.

Out of curiosity, for the record, where are you pulling from those numbers?

#102 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.02.18 at 9:30 pm

@#90 Seirts
“Do you people think the whole world wants to come to Canada for free weed and low taxes?”
+++++
Free Weed and low taxes?
What part of Canada are YOU living in ?

#103 Al on 07.02.18 at 9:38 pm

Is there a CMHC report or another body tracking the source of the money used for real estate transactions? Didn’t think so. Until then this is all conjecture when attributing influence to certain factors. Id love to see a detailed breakdown, local BoM money, overseas money, BoM overseas money, their own savings, etc..

#104 KLNR on 07.02.18 at 9:51 pm

Immigration has not changed substantially in decades at less than 1% of the population annually. Where did your people come from? – Garth

_________________________

didn’t you know Garth, every generation of immigrants thinks they were the last of the good ones lol.

#105 For those about to flop... on 07.02.18 at 9:59 pm

#48 NoName on 07.02.18 at 6:47 pm
Hey flopie what is going on in that basketball match Phillipines vs Australia, fight than match continue with 5 players for Australia an 2 for Phillipines…

///////////////

Hey NoName,i just saw the news.

Pretty crazy stuff!

Probably not as good as the Malice at the Palace…

M44BC

#106 Doug in London on 07.02.18 at 10:01 pm

@PeterL, post #36:
Yes, I remember it well how rising house prices in the 1980s were blamed on Hong Kong Chinese buying up houses or condos to get their money out of Hong Kong. There seems to be a timing issue here, Hong Kong wasn’t transferred back to China until 1997 and yet the housing markets went bust starting in 1990? How could that be?

#107 Mr. Happy Socks on 07.02.18 at 10:18 pm

When I saw the blatant sexism our Prime Minister displayed in insisting that half his cabinet had to be male and completely ignored experience, qualifications and merit, it was time for me to #walkaway

#108 1990's bust on 07.02.18 at 10:24 pm

This became a train wreck with corruption everywhere and the lawsuits flooded the courts for years. A ton of money was lost by those who remembered the 1970’s boom wanting to ride the wave. Mostly long term residents from all ethnic groups.

#109 Shawn Allen on 07.02.18 at 10:25 pm

Competing With Immigrants

#100 akashic record on 07.02.18 at 9:27 pm asked:
#88 Shawn Allen on 07.02.18 at 8:45 pm

Can native Canadians compete with and benefit from immigrants?

Yes, the vast majority (over 90%) certainly can. The bottom 5% or whatever are right to complain though.

Out of curiosity, for the record, where are you pulling from those numbers?

***********************************
Fair question and I should be more clear that is just a guess.

My sense is that most immigrants arrive without the education or licenses to compete for a lot of jobs. In medicine, law and engineering for example, it can be very hard to get international credentials recognized.

But most people who immigrate tend not to have higher education since if they came form a country with good schools and got a higher education they might not need to leave.

Many immigrants therefore start at the bottom.

The vast majority of native born Canadians should certainly have had the chance to get a university or trades education that leaves them well placed to compete with immigrants, no?

Immigrants add to demand in the economy and so many Canadians will benefit from that.

But those native-born Canadians competing for minimum wage type jobs may well be right to complain about competition from immigrants. What percent of the Canadian workforce is that? Is my 5% too low a guess?

#110 Ronaldo on 07.02.18 at 10:40 pm

We’ve had a few foreigners buy houses on our street in Nanaimo lately. Most are just under a mil and those on the water side all over a mil. A couple from Ontario, a couple from Campbell River, a lady from Tofino, just recently a couple from Nanaimo. Damn those foreigners.

#111 crossbordershopper on 07.02.18 at 10:41 pm

go to america and buy a nice house in most places for like $250K with nice backyard and kitchen.
why anyone pays top dollar for partical board houses. its funny the best wood is canadian and its in american houses, canadians live in second rate canadian lumber, you either cry or laugh. i dont know which one, and the prices we pay up here.
and deduct your mortage interest, with a 401K , no state taxes in florida, etc people can make good income and pay like a few grand in total in tax on like 80 grand of income. up here, they line you up

#112 akashic record on 07.02.18 at 10:47 pm

#107 Shawn Allen

Thanks.

Maybe there are no numbers, maybe there are no studies. If there are, the findings don’t seem to be common knowledge. Which is surprising, considering the role of immigration in Canada.

#113 Ronaldo on 07.02.18 at 10:57 pm

Some interesting readings from the past. The more things change the more they stay the same.

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/09/1970s-great-inflation.asp

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/04/25/toronto-real-estate-1988_n_9762348.html

#114 Ronaldo on 07.02.18 at 11:00 pm

I think it’s time to buy a new cap.

https://www.amazon.ca/make-canada-great-again/s?page=1&rh=i%3Aaps%2Ck%3Amake%20canada%20great%20again

#115 45north on 07.02.18 at 11:02 pm

Ground zero, as you might imagine, will be Vancouver. Governments there have the bulk of people believing they can chase away foreigners, Albertans, and other cheaters while taxing the rich as never before.

They won’t.

meaning that governments won’t be successful

they will chase away a lot of foreigners, Albertans and rich people but they won’t make housing more affordable. In fact they will impoverish British Columbia. Then there’s going to be trouble.

But all politicians need to do is change perceptions. Then the correction will be epic.

If this means change, let it come.

#116 Rates vs Capital on 07.02.18 at 11:04 pm

Are you seriously pushing back on the whole ‘foreign capital has no influence’ narrative that has been completely discredited in the Lower Mainland for the past two years through a dozen investigative reports and provincial stats.

Those that have ran with the realtor numbers or Stats Can or CMHC numbers that said foreign ownership is negligible and only 5% have had to eat serious crow.

Once you dive into the stats, the statistical reality is that 1 in 4 new condos in major Metro Vancouver communities were bought by foreign buyers. Even the head stats guy at Stats Can said the numbers were the ‘tip of the iceberg’ because it did not account for proxy buyers, numbered companies and condo pre-sales.

http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/dan-fumano-digging-deeper-following-the-money-on-foreign-property-ownership

As you have pointed out many times, it took only 8% of marginal buyers to cause a 32% decline in US prices. So everyone fails to see why 20% of a market being determined by foreign captial in a quarter million person city like Richmond or Burnaby would somehow have no impact.

Those that deny the influence of foreign capital are so discredited that even the development industry is acknowledging the role of foreign capital following massive exposes and one credible report after the other.

#117 Smartalox on 07.02.18 at 11:20 pm

I think that if you’re going to launder money, there are lots of different ways to do it.

Take condo per-sales, for example. We have already seen evidence that:
– condo project per-sales people were effectively commissioned retailers, they weren’t even licensed Real Estate professionals.
– Sme real estate corporation professionals were found to have not complied with reporting of suspicious large cash transactions. I can’t imagine that condo retailers were trained much better or behaved more diligently.
– lots of evidence of ‘normal people’ lining up for condo pre-sales, only to get in through the door, and find large percentages of units sold to ‘insiders’ before they even had a chance to bid.
– lots of evidence reported of people flipping condo assignments before finalization for profit (but again, not using RE professionals, and not registering titles)

To me, this route seemed to be a much more reasonable process for laundering ill-gotten wealth (to me, at least, though I have no actual experience with these sorts of things) than Casino transactions, where at least there are multiple people watching.

When it came to the casinos, I think that it was dumb luck for the launderers that the various watchdogs and controls were as dysfunctional as they were. I seriously doubt, given what I read in the German report, that some criminal masterminds visited the casinos, and listed all the weaknesses they could exploit.

Instead, these criminals rolled up to the casinos, ran the schemes they were going to run anyway, and happened to get away with it.

As for the pre-buyers and assignment – flippers, the CRA is cracking down on them, and collecting lost taxes.

#118 Dan on 07.02.18 at 11:28 pm

Garth writes:
“The housing market being what it is, each sale sets the floor for prices on a street, in a hood or an entire city. So when some fools decide to borrow a huge amount and spend their brains out, it drives the entire thing skyward. This is why prices escalate – a cycle of moronic behavior, cheap credit and FOMO.”

Buf, of course, those “some fools” can’t be foreign buyers, whom brought over a huge amount and spent their brains out, driving entire market skyward. Followed by local fools being forced to borrow more to compete.

I trust government studies about as much as I trust government numbers on unemployment or inflation.

#119 Math on 07.02.18 at 11:32 pm

Mr Turners,
Can you please give us an example of how it is possible for someone making $80,000/ year to purchase a $1,500,000 home? Please show in facts and figures how this transaction would be achieved?

You talk about available stats of 4.8% etc. That’s the problem – “available” stats. The full stats are not available.

This is why people are sceptical. Show us how your theory of FOMO works in dollar amounts?

#120 Yorkville Renter on 07.02.18 at 11:44 pm

#85 – the fake pic is spelling “blood”, as in Crips and Bloods – gangs of L.A.

#121 Bob Dog on 07.02.18 at 11:45 pm

Let’s explain it so even an inbread hillbilly can understand.

When wealthy migrants dump a mil on a B.C. outhouse, they are not buying a shitty outhouse in a rain forest. They are buying a country for their grandchildren.

You are selling your home out from under your loser children.

Try to think in terms of centuries not weeks.

#122 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.02.18 at 11:53 pm

Re: Picture
Trump sucks up to this guy and salutes his Generals.
Dementia is setting in.
Thank God.

#123 AsiaKid on 07.03.18 at 12:09 am

Garth,
isn’t it a bit of a bait and switch to tell pple the avg million dollar home+ owner is buying a home 450% his earnings and hten the example u use is a person buying a 1.6mn home for 80K

In the first example, 450% would equal 355K down plus an earnings of 355K per yr, which seems very reasonable

In your case, you list a 2000% a person’s life savings (and exaggerate it, possibly, by saying he or she has to scrape that together).

I think if the typical mortgage is 4x to 5x a person’s earnings (annually i assume), it shouldn’t be a problem. Even if it is just total savings, that gives them about a 22% commitment into the property which means property has to drop below that for them to be under water.

#124 A Yank in BC on 07.03.18 at 12:21 am

#52 Long-Time Lurker on 07.02.18 at 6:59 pm
“So what’s with Kim’s hand gesture in the photo? Is he a member of a secret society? A gang?”

Those aren’t even his hands. Photoshopped all the way. He was in fact applauding his military.. who were of course applauding him as well, just as vigorously as possible.

#125 Wiretap on 07.03.18 at 12:26 am

8 times the amount reported in the recent report by just one individual.

Close to $700 billion through BC home buying by last count in 2017.
_______________________________
#JustAnotherShunnyDay…

[CBC] – ‘High roller’ suspected of laundering $855M arrested in B.C., ordered deported

https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.4695231

#126 Dolce Vita - Poor Garth on 07.03.18 at 12:31 am

Well Garth, that went well.

Yet again, statistically significant numbers and common sense fly out the door when they conflict with people’s perceptions, usually based on the antithesis of the former two.

You are indeed unsinkable Garth.

Same thoughts as you when I saw the news about $100 MM in money laundering went to RE in YVR – a pittance.

Other compelling statistics (that require Grade 5 math skills) that concur with your post:

Go to Zolo.ca for YVR market stats (oh no, real numbers), take the average selling price for each category, multiply by the number of sales, add the 3 numbers up (detached, townhome, condo), repeat for the year and presto: $100 MM = a pittance vs. RE sales (and, that is for only 1 year…allegedly money laundering has been going on for 10 years; thus, multiply the current yearly number by 10 as an estimate).

And yes, I did the above for 2016 and 2017 (Excel a good thing) and was left scratching my head at how $100 MM was seen to be a market crushing number – then again, our MSM are not the brightest bunch mathematically (or in Excel), for certain.

$100 MM = a pittance.

I admire your verve as a “giving, caring, sharing” contrarian with figures to support the facts.

I AGREE, the “locals” need only look in the mirror as to whom is to blame for the RE correction that is just beginning [record breaking crash will be more like it] AND the economic turmoil that brings with it.

#127 SoggyShorts on 07.03.18 at 12:35 am

#61 For those about to flop… on 07.02.18 at 7:15 pm

Well you asked me to contribute, and I did with a compliment and a helpful suggestion.

If you want to let a grudge hold you back from improvement, that’s your call. It’s kind of a weird call to make though….

#128 Dolce Vita - YVR Condo Unit Sales on 07.03.18 at 1:05 am

Well, it is beginning in YVR.

Condo sales plummet. The unimaginable has happened (well, not really, read on unless this disagrees with your perception of the YVR Condo market…could not resist).

Per the Steve Saretsky Twitter post 9 h ago of Vancouver Condo Sales for the month of June (using REBGV numbers…he is reliable, I have compared numbers with him over the past 2 years and we concur every time using seemingly different data sets, mine Zolo.ca, his REBGV):

“Vancouver condo sales fell 32% year over year in June. Fewest sales since June 2012.”

His chart (year, unit sales month of June):

2012, 468
2013, 484
2014, 588
2015, 753
2016, 763
2017, 699
2018, 475

He also states prices peaked in January 2018 at a ridiculous $1124 per sq. ft., a 5% gain y/y – dumb, less than self-empowered/uninformed buyers believing their local MSM replete with weather report RE and Mortgage advertising.

He concludes “gone are the days of 30% year over year gains.”

That is a PRECIPITOUS drop in sales.

Why I believe their market will crash severely by 4th Qtr in price.

After all, it was INEVITABLE.

TransUnion reported in early 2017 that the <= 5% down Oct. 2016 B20 stress test decapitated the buyer crowd by 30-35% numerically.

You and many others have reported that the 5% down January 2018 B20 stress test decapitated the same number of buyers by about April, May (lower in other parts of Canada).

Queue about 60% of buyers disqualified.

What is being reported now was after all, INEVITABLE.

A 32% drop in unit sales in just the BEGINNING…that is only half of the buyers lost due to B20 in YVR.

Much more pain to come and not only in lower unit sales…you know, many more sellers than buyers…we all know the ending to that story (unless, “it’s different this time”).

#129 Dolce Vita on 07.03.18 at 1:26 am

All quiet on the Western Front (and the Eastern Front for that matter).

What happened to all the 2016, 2017 RE braggarts from YVR (and 416 et. al.) that would Comment here regularly about their paper gains?

The “paper millionaires”, unmonetized, self-determined investment genii?

Currently, unit sales are plummeting, average price holding but for how much longer with many more sellers than buyers?

I expect everyone on the Western and Eastern Fronts holding their collective breath hoping for an average soaring price miracle turnaround.

Rather, expect the inevitable that was the early 80s, early 90s, 2006/2007 RE price correction AND that is afoot.

“It’s different this time” and history, never, ever repeats since human nature has miraculously amended its ways in the past 10 years.

Last seller to the turnstiles loses – 4th Qtr 2018.

#130 fishman on 07.03.18 at 2:15 am

Vancouver is the epicentre. The trend setter. Vancouver is post modernist tribal. Interestingly, the Greenies are the most populist with the Dippers a slower cousin. No Reformer’s,Conservative’s,Trumpster knock offs in play for their natural constituents here.
I know; it doesn’t make sense. But look at an electoral map. The richer,coastal ,elite, old stock whiteys go “lil potato” federally & Dipper/Green provincially.
Since man is ruled by fear & greed; greed must have first taken over & many took the money & ran. The ones that stayed are now fearful. Caucasians are now officially a majority minority. Their sons & daughters finding it onerous getting STEM placements in university, affording accommodation, fingers desperately clawing into the bank of middle class lifestyle while feeling the slime oozing into their boots from the working class wage slave pit below.

You really have to spend many winter months over a few years travelling throughout Asia. Then it will come. The bone structure, the shape of the head,skin shade. Vietnamese,Chinese,Koreans,Japanese,Philippinos are as different physically as Italians,Swedes,Spanish,French, English. Not by a long shot is every Asian here Chinese.
When I go through my town I see a smorgasbord of nationalities.
Lately, the Spanish, Mexicans, Guatemalans, Hondurans. Also lots more Middle Easterners on the bus. And the slavic languages seem everywhere. Persians, Punjabis lots them.
There may very well be an epic R/E crash out here. I’m still betting that those Boeings at YVR disgorging hundreds of thousands of people from all over the world will take up the slack.

#131 Can You Dig It? on 07.03.18 at 3:14 am

Here’s a real life scenario for the blog dogs.

Mr. Business Analyst making $65k and his human resources wife earning 55k, just bought a $1.916 million dollar home in Burnaby.

Sold previous home for $1.25m that was bought in 2008 for $630k.

600k profit + initial 60k down payment + mortgage paydown = 200k for a total down payment of 860k. Total mortgage = $1.1 million.

This is how you afford a $1.1 million mortgage on a paltry $120k household income.

#132 Sierts on 07.03.18 at 5:53 am

#101 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.02.18

@#90 Seirts

What part of Canada are YOU living in ?
———–
South America.
Some years ago, I came to this and other Canadien sites, to see, if Canada might be a safe place to invest some money.

But your society seems to be so suicidal, that this question was answered long ago.

On this blog I stayed for the comments from Garth & minions, the pics and the big drama show in the comments section.

#133 Linda on 07.03.18 at 8:03 am

But Garth, it isn’t ‘just’ the Chinese who are now considered ‘foreigners’ in BC. Just look at the vitriol hurled at those evil Canadians residing in other provinces – Albertans & Ontario-ites in particular – who do not reside in BC full time & how it is ok to tax them into oblivion because ‘BC for BC’ers’. Plus them ‘furrin’ fellow Beavers obviously only were able to purchase property because they are 1) laundering money; 2) are ethnically advantaged (aka: Chinese Canadian) or 3) are rich Boomers who shouldn’t be allowed to purchase property in BC since that means less property for someone who actually lives in BC year round to purchase at a reasonable price. The fact those BC folks still couldn’t purchase the properties in question as they would still be way out of the price range they could afford is not relevant. It is all rigged to ensure the ‘native’ BCer can’t have what they want & has nothing, absolutely nothing, to do with locals driving up prices. Because you know, locals just wouldn’t DO that, being all laid back, non-competitive Kumbaya types who’d like, mellow out & share their weed, man.

#134 the Jaguar on 07.03.18 at 8:12 am

“#129 FishmanVancouver is the epicentre. The trend setter. Vancouver is post modernist tribal.”

Yep. It’s trendsetter. Or maybe just one end of the spectrum. Was in south eastern Ontario recently and could not believe how ‘white’ the landscape was…
Include Ottawa in that analysis. If you are living in an area that attracts people who come for opportunity you get diversity. If you are in a decaying part of the country, not so much. Not implying Ottawa is decaying, but it’s a government town, after all. All those buses lined up to take the ‘workers’ back to their hoods each day. Laughed my ass off. I thought I was in Havana.

#135 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.03.18 at 8:18 am

@#131 Sierts
“What part of Canada are YOU living in ?
———–
South America.”

++++++
Aha.
That explains the “free weed and low taxes” statement.

Speaking of South America my smug little Chavista.
How IS the Bolivarian revolution working out in Venezuela these days?
I hear the Four Horsemen (starvation, cholera, polio and typhus) are making a comeback….

#136 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.03.18 at 8:23 am

@#129 fishman
“I’m still betting that those Boeings at YVR disgorging hundreds of thousands of people from all over the world will take up the slack.”
+++++
Well …as long as they go directly from the airport to River Rock Casino….you may be right.

#137 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.03.18 at 8:31 am

@#130 Dig it
“Mr. Business Analyst ……..and his human resources wife ”
+++++
My Gawwd!
A Business analyst and an HR sloth?
Two jobs that didnt exist 50 years ago and wont exist 50 years from now once shareholders realize what completely useless skills they “contribute” to the bottom line.
I cant wait for the breakfast table conversation when Mr.Analyst tells Ms. H.R. , “Your job isnt necessary!”
To which H.R. replies, ” I cant handle the stress! I’m going off on a paid leave of absence!”
Push the endless paperwork that no one reads…..baaaack and forth people….push the paper baaaack and forth….. for 35 years.

#138 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.03.18 at 8:55 am

#105 Doug in London on 07.02.18 at 10:01 pm
@PeterL, post #36:
Yes, I remember it well how rising house prices in the 1980s were blamed on Hong Kong Chinese buying up houses or condos to get their money out of Hong Kong. There seems to be a timing issue here, Hong Kong wasn’t transferred back to China until 1997 and yet the housing markets went bust starting in 1990? How could that be?
————–
You got your Chinese mixed up.
It were the Taiwanese. Afraid of Mainland China invasion.
I know, because I sold to one.

#139 PastThePeak on 07.03.18 at 8:58 am


600k profit + initial 60k down payment + mortgage paydown = 200k for a total down payment of 860k. Total mortgage = $1.1 million.

This is how you afford a $1.1 million mortgage on a paltry $120k household income.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Perception. It can change.

When RE is rising, money is super cheap, and you believe this could go on forever, a $1.1M mortgage on $120K income may seem doable. Hang on for a few years, the market rises and you have paper equity, and if the worst happens (loss of a job, illness, etc) then you sell house and make some tax free profit (and rent).

It is different when the market turns though. Even if prices aren’t falling, a flat market is a completely different beast. Now $1.1M is “debt”! Your interest only payments (or close to it – what else can one afford on such a salary) mean that in 5 years, you still owe that, and there is no equity. Job loss could be catastrophic. Houses could take a long time to sell. Now there’s a big risk of default on the house.

When people start thinking of it that way, party is over.

#140 Tater on 07.03.18 at 9:03 am

#52 Long-Time Lurker on 07.02.18 at 6:59 pm
So what’s with Kim’s hand gesture in the photo? Is he a member of a secret society? A gang?
——————————————————————-
It’s a photoshop, but the hands are spelling out “Blood” like the street gang.

#141 dharma bum on 07.03.18 at 9:11 am

No matter what facts are trotted out, people believe what people believe. – Garth
——————————————————————–

Correct. That’s why societies at large have to contend with the massively propagated myth commonly known as…religion.

http://commonsenseatheism.com/?p=7680

#142 IHCTD9 on 07.03.18 at 9:15 am

Things starting to look good for a move up (provided I remain employed). The upper end of our local market has been stalled all year, those that evidently have to sell have been shaving the price as Spring turned into Summer. Of the 3-4 places I’m following, none have sold yet despite multiple reductions on a couple of them. Now, every day the sun sets a little earlier. There is some substantial bang for the buck developing in the upper end of the market. The 3-400K homes are still selling however.

All it’s going to take now is an Auto tariff to kick off some serious economic problems in Ontario. While Trump beats up the Private sector, DF will be slapping around the Public one. If this all comes to pass, only a couple reasonably likely scenarios will stop me from moving up: 1. A Property Tax Bill of over 6K. 2. Unemployment.

I’m not paying more than 6K in taxes for a house out in the badlands of Southern Ontario no matter what it has to offer. We’ll see how long my industry holds out. Probably not long if Trump gets another round.

#143 Tom White on 07.03.18 at 9:25 am

Garth,

You have been quoting the non-resident figures for years now, saying they have had no impact on the LM market. How do you explain the significant boom in the Asian population in the LM compared to 15-20 years ago, moving to > 50%? As many people have commented, the gov’t stats are absolutely useless.

Of course foreign buying impacts any market, but it does not dominate it the way people perceive. There is no evidence to support that view. As for an increasing population of people of Asian background, why does that mean they are ‘foreign’? – Garth

#144 BillyBob on 07.03.18 at 9:29 am

I actually agree with the basic premise that cheap borrowed money has been far more of an influence on price inflation than foreign money. It’s not really an either/or thing, though, as far as the factors listed (Chinese dudes, temporary foreign workers, Albertans , gangs or money launderers”) it’s quite certainly possible that it’s “all of the above”.

What I do take exception is the careless and somewhat illogical methodology presented to dismiss foreign inflows. Using the figure for “total real estate transactions” to represent the sales price influence of foreign money? Arbitrarily picking 10 million for the amount injected? Come on. This is the sort of figure massaging you take RE boards to task for.

And I’m puzzled as to how “each sale sets the floor for prices on a street, in a hood or an entire city”, yet foreign money exerts no influence because it’s too insignificant…?

So one home dropping their price lowers it for everyone, but a few selling at inflated prices doesn’t have an effect?

Nothing wrong with rhetoric to make a point, but from here it just looks just like anyone else determined to “believe what they believe”.

Provide all the factual evidence you want as a counter-argument. – Garth

#145 For those about to flop... on 07.03.18 at 10:01 am

“This Map Shows the Highest-Paying Companies in Every State.

Everybody assumes that CEOs make the most money, but it turns out that getting into the C-Suite isn’t the only way to earn a giant paycheck. Publicly traded companies are now required to release pay figures for their average workers, and some are indeed paying big bucks to the Average Joe. Our new map breaks down the highest-paying companies by industry in every state.

Companies now have to disclose key data about employee compensation thanks to a new rulefrom the SEC. One of the organizations paying close attention to these disclosures is the AFL-CIO, where we found the data for our map. They’ve used the data to point out the discrepancy in the pay received by CEOs versus that received by “production and nonsupervisory workers,” but we wanted to take a look at where those in the latter group are also making out well. First, we identified the companies in each state that pay the highest salaries to their average workers. Then we color-coded our map by industry and overlaid the top company’s logo and its average worker’s salary for easy reference.

Top 10 Highest-Paying Companies
1. New Jersey: NRG Yield, $964,005 (energy)

2. Nevada: VirnetX Holding Corp, $562,062 (technology)

3. California: Geron Corporation, $500,250 (health)

4. Massachusetts: Infinity Pharmaceuticals, $495,513 (health)

5. Virginia: Arlington Asset Investment Corp, $483,502 (financial)

6. Michigan: Esperion Therapeutics, $409,294 (health)

7. New York: Intra-Cellular Therapies, $354,916 (health)

8. Maryland: Chesapeake Lodging Trust, $347,750 (real estate)

9. Texas: Capstead Mortgage Corporation, $300,000 (real estate)

10. Utah: Lipocine, $299,612 (health)

Our approach to mapping the best companies for average compensation reveals several key insights about the American economy. For one, you can see which professions tend to pay the most in different parts of the country. For example, there are two obvious clusters of yellow states across the Northern Plains and the Deep South—these states have several energy companies with extremely high-paying salaries. The same can be said about health companies (like pharmaceutical and insurance companies) across the country’s mid-section.

Our map also highlights a few surprises. For instance, a bank is the highest paying employer in both Alaska and Montana, not an energy company as one might initially expect. And in California, a health company called Geron pays its average employees better than any of the Silicon Valley giants. But keep in mind there are significant differences between the companies on our map. At the high-end, NRG Yield average pay is $964k, and on the low-end, Union Bankshares from Vermont pays only $39,346. One reason for these discrepancies and surprises could be that, since it’s a new rule, companies are still releasing their figures; our data might change.

There are a few other important caveats to keep in mind when looking at our map. The underlying data only concern publicly traded companies headquartered in each state. For example, Alaska is certainly home to several highly-paid oil engineers, but they work for multinational companies headquartered elsewhere. Also bear in mind that not very many people work for these companies. On average, the top ten companies listed above only employ 21 people each (that data wasn’t available for NRG Yield). In other words, these are extraordinarily hard jobs to find. Nevertheless, if you see a job opening for one of these companies where you live, you might as well submit an application.”

https://howmuch.net/articles/highest-paying-company-in-every-state

#146 CJBob on 07.03.18 at 10:02 am

I notice that among the doom and gloom posts there has been no mention of the fact that the TSX was up 6% in the last quarter and sits at an all-time high. Another good quarter for a balanced portfolio. Slow and steady…

#147 TS on 07.03.18 at 10:45 am

Garth congrats on the most ironic blog title of the century. The comments here are proof…everybody thinks they know what is going on but the truth is nobody knows. That is the true crime under all our naive noses. How can it be after years of Canadians talking about nothing else are we no closer to understanding what is really going on. Nobody wants to look under the sheets because they know there is a boogyman waiting for them. If we really wanted to figure this out it wouldnt be that hard. Register all real estate transactions with the CRA and create a public real estate registry. Did we really expect that people wouldnt do shady things when the government purposely avoids transparency?

#148 IHCTD9 on 07.03.18 at 11:04 am

#133 the Jaguar on 07.03.18 at 8:12 am

Was in south eastern Ontario recently and could not believe how ‘white’ the landscape was…
Include Ottawa in that analysis. If you are living in an area that attracts people who come for opportunity you get diversity. If you are in a decaying part of the country, not so much. Not implying Ottawa is decaying, but it’s a government town, after all. All those buses lined up to take the ‘workers’ back to their hoods each day. Laughed my ass off. I thought I was in Havana.

_______

It’s like that everywhere in the entire Country outside the big Urban areas (white). The big cities attract the newcomers for job opportunity, but also some for the big ethnic enclaves where you don’t need to learn the language and other Canadiana right away (if ever).

The really small/remote Mill based towns are eventually going to die out as their revenue creators close/move. Other medium sized cities will carry on for a number of reasons, and are in fact some very prosperous areas with household incomes higher than the GTA, but where a million buys you a Mansion instead of a POS.

Non-White newcomers do exist in these cities, but with limited demographics. What you see a lot of out my way is a lot of young immigrant Women who are visible minorities, and come from countries which are Culturally Christian (basically all kinds of Asians, South Americans, and blacks from all over the world). They marry a local White guy and start a family with him. They’re in like Flynn just like that.

Walking around town on any given day will see many couples consisting of a White Male, with a non-White Female. Most have kids with them also. Many of these Women are educated and have decent jobs.

I guess it’s a great strategy to gain a great lifestyle in no time. One of my Bro’s buddies married a Woman from the Philippines. She got educated here and is now an RN, he’s a Business Owner. Combined income probably near 200K. Beautiful brand new house probably all paid for. 2 sweet trucks for daily drivers. 2 kids being educated in a private schools. A sweet life to be sure. She came here with next to nothing about 20 years ago.

#149 IHCTD9 on 07.03.18 at 11:30 am

#131 Can You Dig It? on 07.03.18 at 3:14 am

This is how you afford a $1.1 million mortgage on a paltry $120k household income.
______

Let’s call 120K household 90K net take home or 7500.00/month

At 3.5% that’s a 5500.00/month payment
Heat – 100.00
Hydro – 150.00
Taxes – 350.00
Insurance – 250.00
Maintenance – 100.00
Sewer – 100.00
Water – 100.00

Total 6650.00

That’s leaves like 10K per year to pay for everything else in life non-house related.

The Mortgage is 12.2X their Net income.

Total housing costs are 88.7% of take home pay.

I do not dig it. If they did get a mortgage like this – they went alt-lend and are paying 8.5% on a 40 year amortization. No real bank would provide a loan like this.

#150 Oft deleted much maligned stock.picker on 07.03.18 at 12:03 pm

China collapsing ….and now Trump’s tariffs may kill the Canadian real estate boom…..interesting butterfly effect…..that Trudeau could have settled with a handshake.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-03/condos-may-be-next-domino-as-tariffs-ensnare-canada-construction

Trump is right…..Canada will pay a big price for Juniors ignorance.

#151 yorkville renter on 07.03.18 at 12:23 pm

#150 – what was “Juniors ignorance”?

We are not dealing with a rationale actor in Trump, and virtually all feedback on how Canada has managed this situation has been positive – including from former PM Mulroney.

Who is feeding your talking points on ignorance?

Trump said countries shouldn’t retaliate? ridiculous.

#152 RE_Investor on 07.03.18 at 12:31 pm

re: #81 Happy Housing Crash Everyone!

ha! The only thing you’re smelling is that mold from your basement suite in your father’s house. Get out quick before it totally rots what’s left of your brain. The fresh air will do you good.

#153 Victor V on 07.03.18 at 12:41 pm

Rising interest rates taking a bite out of housing affordability: RBC

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/rising-interest-rates-taking-a-bite-out-of-housing-affordability-rbc-1.1102356

RBC warned the potential for the Bank of Canada to raise rates by a full percentage point by this time next year could make for an even bleaker future when it comes to Canadians’ mortgage rates. The central bank will make its next interest rate decision July 11, with the implied probability of a hike hovering around 82 per cent as of 10:11 a.m. ET Tuesday morning.

“Our view is that the Bank of Canada will proceed with a series of rate hikes that will raise its overnight rate from 1.25 per cent currently to 2.25 per cent in the first half of 2019. This would have the potential to stress housing affordability significantly.”

The report also saw no reprieve for Vancouver’s housing market, which it described as having reached “crisis levels.”

#154 Howard on 07.03.18 at 12:52 pm

#109 Shawn Allen on 07.02.18 at 10:25 pm

My sense is that most immigrants arrive without the education or licenses to compete for a lot of jobs. In medicine, law and engineering for example, it can be very hard to get international credentials recognized.

But most people who immigrate tend not to have higher education since if they came form a country with good schools and got a higher education they might not need to leave.

Many immigrants therefore start at the bottom.

—————————————–

Wow, your impression of immigrants to Canada is about 50 years out of date.

Canada now takes the most educated and the wealthiest – the ones who have the smarts and funds to navigate the immigration process. Moving to Canada involves moving from one gated community to another; there is no starting at the bottom. Until 2014 we even had an immigrant investor program that allowed people to legally buy Canadian citizenship. Thankfully the Harper government axed the program.

I WISH we took in more poorer immigrants – those with at least a certain amount of education and who demonstrate potential. There are many TFWs who have worked hard in Canada for decades (in agriculture, for instance) but remain uneligible for citizenship for whatever reason. This should change.

#155 IHCTD9 on 07.03.18 at 12:58 pm

#141 dharma bum on 07.03.18 at 9:11 am
No matter what facts are trotted out, people believe what people believe. – Garth
——————————————————————–

Correct. That’s why societies at large have to contend with the massively propagated myth commonly known as…religion.

http://commonsenseatheism.com/?p=7680
________

Ask any follower of any Abrahamic Religion (and probably many others) if their Religion was organized by Humans and the answer will be “Yes of course”. All Christian Doctrines were established and documented in writing by Humans, and several of the Humans who penned these are highly recognizable in Western Culture.

Why do you think there are like 30 thousand Christian denominations?

Because Humans.

#156 fancy_pants on 07.03.18 at 1:26 pm

They will just cram more people under one roof.

My street in Kitchener is a newer one with 2500+ sq ft homes and it is just a circus … basement rentals left, right and center and clans of 12+ under one roof. Cars on drive skirts, no escape from the aromas of stoves in garages furiously cooking up exotic dishes … sometimes I step out and forget what country I’m in. I think my name is Waldo.

The generation coming up will certainly experience a decline in standard of living as wages are stagnant but housing and the cost of living has been driven through the roof.

#157 Ponnaps on 07.03.18 at 1:26 pm

“…The housing market being what it is, each sale sets the floor for prices on a street, in a hood or an entire city. So when some fools decide to borrow a huge amount and spend their brains out, it drives the entire thing skyward….”

——————–

this is all we’ve been says all these years in regards to foreign money/ownership driving up the RE prices. It doesn’t matter if the participation rate is only 2-5%. All it takes is that one transaction to create the benchmark for future prices… and unfortunately for those future buyers the opacity of MLS means they wouldn’t know the buyer and/or his money was foreign based…

#158 jess on 07.03.18 at 1:29 pm

#105 Doug in London

wasn’t there a song called “i think i’m turning japanese…i really think so

saving and loan bust contagion competition for savings accts. high interest lure

When American Continental Corporation, the parent of Lincoln Savings, went bankrupt in 1989,[6][7] more than 21,000 mostly elderly investors lost their life savings. Lincoln Savings was seized by federal authorities the day following American Continental’s bankruptcy filing.[8][9][10] This total came to about $285 million, largely because such investors held securities backed by the parent company rather than deposits in the federally insured institution, a distinction apparently lost on many if not most of them until it was too late.[11] The federal government covered almost $3 billion of Lincoln’s losses when it seized the institution. Many creditors were made whole, and the government then attempted to liquidate the seized assets through its Resolution Trust Corporation, often at pennies on the dollar compared to what the property had allegedly been worth and the valuation at which loans against it had been made. Charles Keating would be sent to prison for fraud.[12]

At the time of the Federal seizure on April 14, 1989, Lincoln Savings was the 42nd largest savings & loan in the country with 29 branches throughout Southern California and assets of $5.4 billion and deposits of $4.4 billion but only $20 million in required capital on hand instead of the required $325 million in capital.[10] It took two years for the RTC to liquidate Lincoln Savings. In March 1991, Beverly Hills-based Great Western Bank paid the RTC $12.1 million for 28 offices and $1 billion in deposits.[13][14]

#159 jess on 07.03.18 at 1:36 pm

Affirmative Action Battle Has a New Focus: Asian-Americans
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/03/us/politics/trump-affirmative-action-race-schools.html

A Princeton study found that students who identify as Asian need to score 140 points higher on the SAT than whites to have the same chance of admission to private colleges, a difference some have called “the Asian tax.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/02/us/affirmative-action-battle-has-a-new-focus-asian-americans.html

#160 Spelling on 07.03.18 at 1:50 pm

#119 Math on 07.02.18 at 11:32 pm
Mr Turners,
Can you please give us an example of how it is possible for someone making $80,000/ year to purchase a $1,500,000 home?
——

While I am not “Mr Turners,” I can answer your question. They sell their existing house for 1.2 M and take out a 300 K mortgage. It’s not the math that is hard.

#161 Yvrmc on 07.03.18 at 1:51 pm

Re #75
Hahahahahahhahahaha that was excellent !! OMG I’m in a small Portuguese restaurant having dinner in Portimao. I burst out laughing so loud the other diners looked at me !! I had to apologize .

#162 Kitchener on 07.03.18 at 2:12 pm

#156 fancy_pants – You must have a bad street, because just checked the up to date stats. What you are stating here is impossible because this city looks great. Next time find a better street lol.

#163 NotLegalAdvice on 07.03.18 at 2:31 pm

I was 2 days late on the blog. Just got caught up!

My house search continues. Market showing a slow decline.

The amount of properties on the market has risen. I have lots of options now…. but the time isn’t right.

Just a few more months and a few more increases on interest rates. Until then, I’ll keep saving!

#164 millmech on 07.03.18 at 3:06 pm

#113 Ronaldo,
Do the math on 850k mortgage over 30 yrs at 7.5% they end up paying about $2,000,000 in total for a house that sells for about $2,000,000 now. They are financial geniuses, look at all the money we made on our investment over the last 30yrs, about 2.7% CAGR!

#165 AGuyInVancouver on 07.03.18 at 3:07 pm

As I wrote. Perceptions. – Garth
_ _ _
Well, no. What you wrote was: “The housing market being what it is, each sale sets the floor for prices on a street, in a hood or an entire city. So when some fools decide to borrow a huge amount and spend their brains out, it drives the entire thing skyward. This is why prices escalate – a cycle of moronic behaviour, cheap credit and FOMO.”

Or for some reason you don’t think the rule you specifically refer to here applies to Foreign Buyers?

Until it ends. And it has. – Garth

#166 Adrian on 07.03.18 at 3:10 pm

JUICY!
https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAwMlFZVQ==

Sales history (last 3 years)
29-May-2018 $1,304,500
19-Jan-2016 $1,398,000

Land transfer tax on purchase: $25,960
Sellers Agent Commission $19,985
Buyer Agent Commission $17,127
GST $1,856

Seller Receives $1,265,532

Less the land transfer tax from initial purchase = $1,239,572

So in 2 years they lost $158,428 (-11.33% ROI)

And I’m not even factoring in the loss due to having that initial investment tied up, or the cost of interest on the mortgage. Assuming they put down 20%, there’s another loss of approx. $34558 (based on two years of 6% per year gains in ETFs, which potentially could have been tax free if done in a TFSA)

In the 2.5 years of holding this property with 20% down they would have put approximately $76,183 in interest payments on the mortgage.

TOTAL LOSS: 269,169
FINAL ROI: -19.25%

#167 Oh Canada on 07.03.18 at 3:35 pm

#100 Smoking Man on 07.02.18 at 9:27 pm

The #WalkAway movement is the new in vogue counterculture and it is certain death to modern day insane liberalism.
Good Riddance.
………………………………………………………………..
Ha, ha, ha your a Breithbart flunky, what a joke you are Smoking Man. You really are an old man that’s gullible, ha, ha Walkaway. BTW your senile if you believe your buddy Trump. If your not senile then you just plain dumb as a post. Insane Liberalism? Have you read you masters manifestos lately, Jesus he is just this side of becoming the de facto head of crazy old white guy land. The guy is a racist plain and simple.

#168 Sue on 07.03.18 at 3:47 pm

#53 Long-Time Lurker on 07.02.18 at 6:59 pm
So what’s with Kim’s hand gesture in the photo? Is he a member of a secret society? A gang?

‘blood’

Had to ask my kid.

#169 Stan Brooks on 07.03.18 at 3:47 pm

#12 Debtslavecreator on 07.02.18 at 4:39 pm

Good summary.

But you underestimate the stupidity of the sheep, this sheeple is stupid, big time!

They will keep dreaming about wealthy foreigners looking to buy their crack shacks long after the ashes of this real estate bubble and the (shitty, artificial) ‘economy’ along with it are blown out/away by the winds of the greatest depressions that imminently will follow.

It all aligns perfectly:

– NAFTA disintegrating (it drove the growth in the last 2-3 decades)
– record credit bubble
– economy of financial ‘services’ with nothing real
– trade wars
– currency wars
– incompetent and corrupt politicians
– greedy oligopolies

shittshow starting in 3,2,1….

#170 Dissident on 07.03.18 at 3:48 pm

Please note, everyone, that Ontario has had a debt problem both during, and outside of the Harris/Eves Conservative years over a decade ago (8 year span in total).

https://business.financialpost.com/opinion/ontarios-decades-of-debt-will-resonate-with-taxpayers-for-years-to-come

Note that the debt never went down with a Conservative government at the helm of Ontario’s economy (Mike Harris/Ernie Eves). It went up, up, up, just as it did with Bob Rae and the latest Liberals.

So the myth that Conservative governments will right some Liberal/NDP wrong, is total baloney. It’s an economy issue, not a politics issue. One that politics is apparently unable to solve.

Ontario has both the largest GDP of all the provinces (of both BC and Alberta combined), but also the largest population to care for and spend money on (see Wikipedia). Hence our debt. Gotta keep the brass knobs shiny on the doors in Ottawa. Keep up appearances and such.

#171 Stan Brooks on 07.03.18 at 3:51 pm

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/canadian-home-ownership-costs-hit-151900070.html


In Vancouver, home ownership costs hit their highest level on record, yet again; it takes 87.8 per cent of an average PRE-TAX income to afford an average home, which RBC describes as “crisis levels.”

Things are only slightly better in Toronto (74.2 per cent PRE-TAX income) but the Toronto area was just one of two cities, along with Winnipeg, to see an improvement in affordability in the first quarter of this year.

This sheeple is stupid.

#172 IHCTD9 on 07.03.18 at 4:07 pm

deposits.[13][14]
.#159 jess on 07.03.18 at 1:36 pm
Affirmative Action Battle Has a New Focus: Asian-Americans
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/03/us/politics/trump-affirmative-action-race-schools.html

A Princeton study found that students who identify as Asian need to score 140 points higher on the SAT than whites to have the same chance of admission to private colleges, a difference some have called “the Asian tax.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/02/us/affirmative-action-battle-has-a-new-focus-asian-americans.html
______

Yep, but this is old news. Asians tend to do good in school, so the lefty affirmative action policy has to cut them down a little.

It’s not about race, it’s about success – if you got too much…

#173 IHCTD9 on 07.03.18 at 4:13 pm

#154 Howard on 07.03.18 at 12:52 pm
_____

While you are not wrong – many of those 3rd world educations don’t cut the mustard in Canada. Most 3rd world immigrants I know are going to school again here in Canada as their Chinese and Indian Degrees will get them a bottom end job here and that’s it.

Employers call the shots on this one, and I’ve never seen or heard of a 3rd world degree launching an outstanding 1st world career.

#174 jess on 07.03.18 at 4:13 pm

trump believes putin over his entire house!

The Senate report said that the intelligence community’s assessment of Russia’s intentions were sound, which is at odds with the House Intelligence Committee Republicans’ report that found “significant intelligence tradecraft failings” in the assessment of Putin’s objectives.
“The Committee has spent the last 16 months reviewing the sources, tradecraft and analytic work underpinning the Intelligence Community Assessment and sees no reason to dispute the conclusions,” Senate Intelligence Chairman Richard Burr said in a statement, reiterating what he had initially said in May.

The unclassified summary released on Tuesday provides details on why the Senate Intelligence Committee agreed with the intelligence community that Russia was trying to help Trump and hurt Hillary Clinton’s campaign.The conclusion has been affirmed by Trump’s entire national security team

=====
The census determines how $675 billion in federal funding is allocated, how much representation states receive, and how political districts are drawn.

ACLU Sues Trump Over Census: “A Naked Act of Intentional Discrimination”
This is the sixth major lawsuit challenging a controversial question about US citizenship on the 2020 census.
Ari BermanJun. 6, 2018 11:24 AM
wilber ross
chicken or the egg

Judge Jesse Furman of the Southern District of New York,Furman cited Ross’s memo to question his truthfulness and the administration’s motives in adding the question. “It now appears these statements were potentially untrue,” Furman said of Ross’ claims that the question was added at the Justice Department’s request. “It now appears that the idea of adding a citizenship question originated with Secretary Ross and not the Department of Justice.”

#175 Can You Dig It? on 07.03.18 at 5:07 pm

Oh I forgot to add guys. Mr. Business Analyst has a basement that could easily bring in $1600 per month.

So up that income to about $140k per year gross.

#176 Can You Dig It? on 07.03.18 at 5:23 pm

#149 I do not dig it. If they did get a mortgage like this – they went alt-lend and are paying 8.5% on a 40 year amortization. No real bank would provide a loan like this.

——————

They closed before stress tests kicked in. Interest rate is closer to 2.69% 5 year fixed. Plus see my comment about the basement.

BC (bring cash) loves illegal basements. It’s the only way to afford a bloody mortgage out here.

#177 Steven Rowlandson on 07.03.18 at 7:15 pm

“The bulk of people buying million-dollar properties in Toronto and Vancouver carry debts equal to, or exceeding, 450% of what they earn. Gulp. That should answer the question oft posed: how can the average income-earner afford the average house?”

They can’t! Never ever. That is why we need home price implosion to reduce prices to equal to or less than 3 years pay at minimum wage for one person. Price reduction is just numbers being changed and the chance to live being created. The opposite is genocide.

#178 Tamsen on 07.03.18 at 8:02 pm

“Tom White on 07.03.18 at 9:25 am

Garth,

You have been quoting the non-resident figures for years now, saying they have had no impact on the LM market. How do you explain the significant boom in the Asian population in the LM compared to 15-20 years ago, moving to > 50%? As many people have commented, the gov’t stats are absolutely useless.”

“Of course foreign buying impacts any market, but it does not dominate it the way people perceive. There is no evidence to support that view. As for an increasing population of people of Asian background, why does that mean they are ‘foreign’? – Garth”

Dear Garth, We’ve lived in the LM for more than two decades and have seen for ourselves the overwhelming changes in foreign ownership. We have eyes and ears so we can see and hear them not speaking English which means they were not born in Canada and are foreigners, whether landed immigrant or otherwise.

They can speak whatever tongue they wish. You are free not to listen. – Garth

#179 Smoking Man on 07.03.18 at 11:00 pm

53 Hawk on 07.03.18 at 8:48 pm
#29 Smoking Man on 07.03.18 at 6:35 pm

========

Agreed SM, too many north of the 49th keep on deluding themselves about the reality of the quiet under-current of support, that exists for conservative policies down south.

The MSM is controlled by the elite,……..the deplorables keep quiet, due to the “shaming culture” for voicing non-pc opinions……..but make themselves heard at the voting booth.
…….

So True….Indians, Asians, Mexicans who are legally here are sure liking their tax cuts and bonuses and the fact that there are so many jobs, employers are upping wages to keep hard to find staff.
Capitalism Works.

And the illegal workforce are eyeing Canada right now. My lift driver a Mexican, not legal is taking his entire family to Canada at the end of the month. He told me you get free housing and money..He loves Canada and showed me a map were they can cross.

This trickle will be an avalanch soon.

Nice people but where you going yo put them.

#180 Clifford Tindall on 07.04.18 at 12:07 am

When are people going to realize StatsCan is bogus! Foreign money funnels through local business and children. Why dont they share those facts?

#181 Exodus 2020 on 07.04.18 at 3:33 am

#42 “We let 300,000 + new immigrants into Canada every year, virtually all settle in GTA and greater Vancouver area – how is housing in these areas supposed to keep up with the demand?

Immigration has not changed substantially in decades at less than 1% of the population annually. Where did your people come from? – Garth”

Hey Garth, maybe it remains at 1%, but the base population is growing so the annual influx grows. Your argument is only valid if the annual immigration rate was a fixed number, not a %.