Me first

Will they do it again in a few days? The odds were slam-dunk a couple of weeks ago before the latest Trump trade tantrum that rates would pop. Now? Meh. Not so sure. Chances are the Bank of Canada will add a quarter point on the 11th, but reluctantly. Because our nation is at more risk today than in decades.

Seriously. You should pay attention to this.

So much has changed in scant months. NAFTA was busily being negotiated during the winter. Now it’s likely paws up. Real estate markets – a major piece of the country’s economy – are being leveled by the stress test. Consumer confidence has fallen sharply as the trade war develops. Our prime minister was called cheap and dishonest by the world’s only omnipotent leader. The currency has lost ground. Household debt continues to rise. Our steel and aluminum industries have been whacked hard. And now the biggest blow appears to be coming.

Meanwhile the news people are talking about? Weed. Legal in October. Molson says it’s planning a weed-infused beer. Ottawa is reportedly ready to approve not only pot plants in your bathroom, but also your backyard. Provincial governments are planing to become drug pushers with new retail outlets. Rome burns. We fiddle.

Anyway, the White House is expected to decide in a few weeks whether or not to slap a 25% tariff on cars made in Mapleland which are then shipped to the States. At stake are the jobs of some 120,000 souls – good ones, generally with high wages, decent benefits and above-average pensions. The auto trade tallies about $62 billion in trade between the two countries. That’s 15% of our entire exports (oil is 20%), accounting for a fifth of all production jobs in Ford Nation.

Trump’s tariff would be a fell blow to everyone. Immediately affected would be the car manufacturers, dealers, parts makers, retailers and transport companies. As production was drained off to America, the job losses would be relentless. Then, of course, we’d all pay more for vehicles. Potentially a lot more, as the entire production chain becomes less efficient.

A report by Moody’s this week also made it clear Trump could be blowing off America’s nose to spite its face. GM and Ford, for example, depend on Canadians and Mexican-made cars (and especially trucks) to satisfy US domestic demand (up to 30% of it). So Americans will pay more, too.

“Both manufacturers would need to absorb the cost of scaling back Mexican and Canadian production and moving some back to the U.S.,” Moody says. “They would also probably need to subsidize sales to offset the tariffs for a time, with higher costs eventually passed onto the consumer.”

The idiotic, destructive, expensive, protectionist, America-first Trump move would not just kneecap Canada. Toyota sends over 20% of its cars to the States. For Nissan it’s 30% and 70% for those awful Kia guys. At a stroke, imposing such prohibitive tariffs on vehicles so integrated into the global supply chain would cause a form of industrial chaos unseen since the end of the last World War.

However, it may be coming.

If that’s the case, the currency could well weaken further, especially if the BoC signals on the 11th that it’s turning tail. A US$ now worth $1.33 in Canadian Tire money might be closer to a buck-forty before you know it. I hope you heeded the advice here, often repeated, to have at least 20% of your portfolio in American-denominated assets.

The carmakers will suffer, obviously, so expect that to be reflected in North American equity markets. Investors hate trade wars because they increase costs, decrease efficiency, diminish corporate profits, fuel inflation, dampen economic growth and cost jobs. They’re not good, nor easy to win. Those who profess such things will be proven as wrong as they are dangerous. Just ask the boys at Harley how this is all going for their business.

On Canada Day our country will retaliate against the US with tariffs on billions of dollars’ worth of American goods. That means you will pay more to buy stuff, without earning any more or having your tax load reduced. No benefit. Just more cost. At the same time, we grow closer to losing a slew of jobs and seeing one of the most successful international relationships in the world shredded. That’s what a trade war means.

This week a movement began in the US Senate to restrict a president’s ability to impose tariffs, allowing one man to ignite a global meltdown, affecting humanity. That’s in case an unstable despot ever achieves the White House.

Oh, wait…

216 comments ↓

#1 fancy_pants on 06.27.18 at 5:42 pm

Let’s just cut to the chase – rates will remain perpetually low until hyperinflation runs rampant

#2 Drink up on 06.27.18 at 5:45 pm

There once was a poodle who thought he was a cowboy
But he lived in a cage the size of his thumb
And, though his white horse was a box of toothpicks
He galloped around until hit by a car
And sometimes I flap my arms like a hummingbird
Just to remind myself I’ll never fly
And sometimes I burn my arms with cigarettes
Just to pretend I won’t scream when I die

And if my life was as long as the moon’s
I’d still be jealous of the sun
And if my life lasted only one day
I’d still be drunk by noon

#3 SmallTownSteve on 06.27.18 at 5:47 pm

DELETED

#4 Screwed Canadian Dollar on 06.27.18 at 5:49 pm

USD/CAD 1.3329 -0.0012 -0.09%

Where is Mark (not the imposter) to tell us how our Loonie will be above par to the green?
I foresee a Loonie valued at 68 cents this Winter or about C$1.40 to one dead president bill.

#5 BobC on 06.27.18 at 5:52 pm

You perfectly described what happened to the states when NAFTA was passed by the democrats. Don’t worry about jobs. Do what we had to do. Replace those good jobs with more bartenders and wait people.

#6 Fake News Again on 06.27.18 at 5:54 pm

DELETED

#7 Bob Dog on 06.27.18 at 5:56 pm

Oh no weed available in canada. Thats completely new and has never occurred in the past.

#8 Peter on 06.27.18 at 5:59 pm

I don’t think anyone can stop him. he is crazy and he has a support from lobby who made him president

BTW he is doing good things for US. more jobs there and US$ getting stronger every day.

#9 Eco Capitalist on 06.27.18 at 5:59 pm

If that auto duty happens, and those jobs are lost, they are never coming back.

Here’s a handy reference for those of you who don’t know which vehicles are made in Canada:

https://www.ic.gc.ca/eic/site/auto-auto.nsf/eng/am00767.html

#10 S.Bby on 06.27.18 at 6:01 pm

Trump has basically declared economic warfare on Canada. It’s hard to believe one person can do so much damage in such a sort period of time. Especially when there is no need for it other than pandering to the knuckle draggers.

#11 Spia on 06.27.18 at 6:01 pm

This too will pass. One has to wonder if all of these events are designed to break alliances so that when the big default hits, there are no obligations or rules to follow. I agree, diversify, spreads the pain.

#12 I’m stupid on 06.27.18 at 6:02 pm

This week a movement began in the US Senate to restrict a president’s ability to impose tariffs, allowing one man to ignite a global meltdown, affecting humanity. That’s in case an unstable despot ever achieves the White House.

If it clears the Senate and House I’m sure it will be vetoed before it gets to the oval. Good luck getting 2/3rds of the votes to overturn the veto. Thank Justin for the legal weed, we’re all going to need some.

I still believe Trump is playing a game to get a better deal. I can’t believe he’s that stupid. Maybe I’m stupid for not recognizing Trumps stupidity. We’ll see, at least I’m diversified lol!

#13 Musty Basement Dweller on 06.27.18 at 6:05 pm

“Canadian Tire Money” LMAO I love that I’m going to use it. Don’t worry, Mr Dressup says we won’t be pushed around. But If Canada stops sending cars to the US we could be really screwed we may lose that forever, because Mexico is probably 8X cheaper still and higher quality labour and assembly and technology all the time. So once the fan gets hit in the US because of higher vehicle prices, they may solve that by going to Mexico. Mr Dressup should have gone for the Sunset clause when he had the chance and before he started to mouth off.

#14 NAFTA on 06.27.18 at 6:08 pm

It appears to be going paws up because its looking that way. The beast is a few bulbs short of a pack, and never wanted an agreement except on his terms. The new President of Mexico is so far left he falls off the edge. AMLO, the tyrant and the beast will clash, so it looks bad for all concerned or pray for a miracle.

#15 Bob on 06.27.18 at 6:12 pm

Rome burns. We fiddle.

____________________________________________

Those four words kind of say it all about the Canada of 2018.
One day, one may ask looking back, “How did it ever come to this…?”

#16 Lost...but not leased on 06.27.18 at 6:15 pm

Fhyrrsst…..

#17 islander on 06.27.18 at 6:16 pm

Finally –Peter German’s report, ‘DIRTY MONEY’, is out and the suspicions of angry, long-time residents of YVR (of all ethnicities!) have been vindicated.
The Vancouver Model: (laundered money, drugs and real estate) – money made coming and going. We’ve been played big time and didn’t we know it!

https://news.gov.bc.ca/files/German_Gaming_Final_Report.pdf

http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/b-c-government-to-release-casino-money-laundering-report

“ the 247-page report, ‘Dirty Money,’ by former RCMP deputy commissioner Peter German paints a troubling picture of a (liberal/socred) government that turned a blind eye to money laundering by organized criminals in B.C.”
(See page 213 for information regarding real estate etc.)

#18 Reality is stark on 06.27.18 at 6:16 pm

At least we can take solace in the fact that we have an extremely well paid public service.
More taxes should also help us retain jobs.
These are the go to solutions for all our government strategy.
All government employees have been brainwashed to think that this is how all problems are solved.
We are lost as a nation.

#19 Roger on 06.27.18 at 6:16 pm

The world economy might tank this year. All because of one man….

#20 Doug t on 06.27.18 at 6:19 pm

I had a 2 week trip to Vegas and Palm Springs booked for November -car booked – hotel booked – flights booked (Air Alaska) – yesterday we cancelled all of it -sent email to the hotels, car company and airline telling them why we cancelled – doesn’t do much but gotta do something

RATM

#21 Smoking Man on 06.27.18 at 6:23 pm

Trump won because of the insanity of the left pushing more outrageous things everyday..

The last straw for normals was allowing men into our daughters and wives bathrooms.

Trump capitalized on that sentiment and built momentum from there.
The left made it so easy for him.

As far as not doing a deal with Canada. There are more job openings in the USA than people to fill them. Trump is softening up his rivals before final negotiations. NAFTA will get done.

Man if not. Everyone is doomed on both sides of the border.

Dr Smoking Man.
Phd Herdonomics.

#22 CanadianOne on 06.27.18 at 6:23 pm

Do trade wars re-price the market? If so, which direction? Who takes the hit first? How hard would the impact be on the subsequent chains of producers and consumers alike? Shitshows are brewing if not already spewing… If everything is going to go KABOOM, what does one “buckle” down to? Interesting!

#23 MF on 06.27.18 at 6:27 pm

Disgusting turn of events if this all comes true. I like Trump, but the attack on Canada is uncalled for.

Any Canadian siding with the US on this specific issue is self hating and a traitor. You can dislike the PM and the Liberals as much as you want (I’m no fan), but your loyalty should still lie with your own country.

As for the BoC. No change. We have seen how out of touch with reality they are. They will sacrifice the loonie, along with all our purchasing power, for some weird competitive export strategy.

Many people have been saying that rates should have been rising earlier so that, in the case of any economic shock -like a trade war- rates can be lowered to grease the economy and soften the blow. Well, here we are. Zero bound still, and having to raise into the face of uncertainty.

Great job Boc.

MF

#24 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.27.18 at 6:28 pm

@#6 Flake News

Hitting the bottle a tad early this evening are we?

#25 Anin on 06.27.18 at 6:29 pm

>despot

Your neoliberal hysterics never fail to amuse.

#26 Ace Goodheart on 06.27.18 at 6:30 pm

What’s happening across the border with the housing markets:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/26/weekly-mortgage-applications-fall-sharply-as-potentialhome-buyers-dro.html

Wait, what? Sellers prefer cash payment to financing, so they don’t have to worry about appraisals?

Who pays cash for a house (other than me I guess)?

Well, if you are in Detroit, where houses cost less than used cars, I guess you pay cash:

https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/Detroit-MI/88277069_zpid/17762_rid/42.436633,-82.945233,42.268417,-83.25285_rect/11_zm/1_fr/

#27 Scared on 06.27.18 at 6:31 pm

Scared of people in your comment section, jeez.

People have forgotten how a democracy is supposed to work, and the entire West has checked out due to apathy. The cycle of history continues, I guess we can just hope to avoid the barbarians/crippling hunger this time?

The guy calling you a Anti-White racist, such a clown. (Also, you’re a marxist? Garth, how could you!? I’m pretty sure the guy has no idea who Marx even was)

The guy saying Trump is good for the states? Wow, sure, ok, glad to see Canadians who would support that rhetoric (Holy, not at all, are people this out of touch?)

Rome is Burning, we fiddle. Maybe everyone should remember that years of ‘Voting makes no difference’ and a lack of any kind of rational education around governance got us here.

Every day I’m angrier at the people who came before me for letting it get this bad. Yes, an entire generation has dropped the ball on Democracy.

#28 Reximus on 06.27.18 at 6:32 pm

Nafta will be resolved before the fall, as the economic impact in many states will be a disaster for the Repubs in the US mid-terms

#29 MF on 06.27.18 at 6:34 pm

#17 Reality is stark on 06.27.18 at 6:16 pm

A close family member is a government employee, and they are as conservative/pro business as they come.

As always, your post is 100% grade A bs.

MF

#30 Nonplused on 06.27.18 at 6:35 pm

Tariffs on so large a portion of Canada’s trade won’t be good no matter whether they are on outbound or inbound goods.

If Canada isn’t in a recession yet, it should be soon.

#31 Eaglebay on 06.27.18 at 6:40 pm

#16 islander on 06.27.18 at 6:16 pm

Can you explain to me how to go about laundering money in a casino?
The odds are on the casinos side. Maybe they should just give the money away.

#32 renter in Surrey on 06.27.18 at 6:42 pm

At stake are the jobs of some 120,000 souls – good ones, generally with high wages, decent benefits and above-average pensions.

—————————————————————–

Who cares about few lost jobs. Those people can go into RE flipping and make fortunes.
RE is the engine of Canadian economy.
Just keep rates low and credit available.

#33 Strathcona on 06.27.18 at 6:50 pm

I don’t see this all as a bad thing. There used to be a time when your TV set was made in Canada. Washer, Dryer, most of the appliances. Each would be a massive spend, not disposable like today. If any of them broke down, it was way cheaper to pay someone to fix them then to replace.

In this small example, jobs to make it expensively in Canada. Jobs to repair it expensively in Canada. The days of filled e-waste depots of old Chinese exports could someday be behind us.

#34 the Jaguar on 06.27.18 at 6:53 pm

This NAFTA/Tariffs debacle reminds me of Rebel Without a Cause. A game of ‘Chicken’, to see who has the gonads to bail out of the car last. Love him or hate him, I think it’s foolish to dismiss Trump as the village idiot. While his impulsive and explosive behaviour blows our minds, all presidents receive the counsel of informed advisors. The rest is theater and high stakes poker, which he loves as do his fans.
The military industrial complex will give him a long leash for the moment provided their interests are secure. Stay tuned. Everyone will kiss and make up before Labour Day Weekend so Trump can scrawl his large and clinically diagnosable signature across another piece of parchment for the cameras.
As for pot legalization there really are no words. I detest it. The smell, the lethargy it breeds, etc. The Jaguar will avoid those social circles. Enough said.
I like that Instagram photo of the reno crew. Their expression says ‘We are proud to have been a part of bringing this old gal back to life”. Rightly so.
Maybe Darryl White will show up in a tux to cut the ribbon on opening day.

#35 Lost...but not leased on 06.27.18 at 6:55 pm

Who cares..

Mr. Fidel Castro II (aka PM Socks) is reaping what PET wrought…let the inevitable (and by design) collapse of Canada commence…

BC traitor Premier Sir James Douglas . WITHOUT ANY AUTHORIZATION..co-opted and condemned BC to become a province as opposed to a member of Cascadia.

#36 604renter on 06.27.18 at 6:55 pm

So…..is that Trump in the Lambo? He is TAKING the money, correct?:)

Seriously tho, he is making the US unrecognizable. Shameful. And shame on every lousy Democrat who was too lazy to get off the couch and vote.

#37 Gyga on 06.27.18 at 6:58 pm

Trump is doing the right things that way overdue in EU case and obviously in Chinese case
these fact that we got under the truck is that one Drama teacher remains a Drama teacher instead of being a PM

#38 Big Kahuna on 06.27.18 at 6:59 pm

Trudeau publicly insulted Trump at least 3 times-the TPP, Paris Accord and the G7-as our largest customer by far (86%) Canada needs the USA far more than they need us-a rational leader would stop trying to grandstand and mend the fences with the USA.

#39 akashic record on 06.27.18 at 7:00 pm

None of this would be happening of course, if previous trade deals didn’t destroy systematically the American middle-class.

If you bought shares of the winners of those previous trade deals you had a great run.

Nothing last forever, re-balancing time.

I am sure, it will be possible to make good money under these circumstances, too.

Figuring out how is time better spent than joining the chorus of hysteria. That’s the prefect role of the lunatic left.

#40 Leo Trollstoy on 06.27.18 at 7:02 pm

#4 Screwed Canadian Dollar on 06.27.18 at 5:49 pm

I feel badly for criss, he been wrong for years. Wrong on c$, inflation, gold, tech :(

Mark77 posts on March 29, 2014:

And the fundamentals show the CAD$ is going to shoot past parity and beyond as a reflection of the far higher quality that has been built in Canada

http://forums.redflagdeals.com/canadian-dollar-its-ups-downs-1442859/15/

#41 Michael King on 06.27.18 at 7:03 pm

Thank you #8, interesting and useful info.
Trump is being advised on trade by Peter Navarro. This article is a year old but it gives a clear picture of where Trump’s obsession with tariffs is coming from. This critique of Navarro is from that bastion of socialist thought The National Review.
https://www.nationalreview.com/2017/04/peter-navarro-trump-china-adviser-bad-economics/

#42 jim on 06.27.18 at 7:03 pm

…but it’s OK for us to put tariffs on Chinese steel….POT/KETTLE/BLACK. No shortage of self righteousness north of the 49th…

#43 akashic record on 06.27.18 at 7:09 pm

#19 Doug t on 06.27.18 at 6:19 pm

I had a 2 week trip to Vegas and Palm Springs booked for November -car booked – hotel booked – flights booked (Air Alaska) – yesterday we cancelled all of it -sent email to the hotels, car company and airline telling them why we cancelled – doesn’t do much but gotta do something

===

You got triggered into tribalism pretty easily.

Even this blog has suddenly discovered Canada as “our nation”.

#44 Balmuto on 06.27.18 at 7:09 pm

“On Canada Day our country will retaliate against the US with tariffs on billions of dollars’ worth of American goods. That means you will pay more to buy stuff, without earning any more or having your tax load reduced. No benefit. Just more cost. At the same time, we grow closer to losing a slew of jobs and seeing one of the most successful international relationships in the world shredded. That’s what a trade war means.” – Garth

I’ve often wondered if this was the correct response. Maybe we should have just told him that his trade war was stupid and insulting, and wouldn’t impact the NAFTA negotiations in any way, and left it at that. Slapping on steel and aluminum tariffs will hurt our manufacturers the same way it hurts theirs. Maybe the best way to win a trade war is by refusing to participate.

#45 KommyKim on 06.27.18 at 7:12 pm

Sure Trump has managed to dodge reality and say that aluminum and steel from Canada is a security threat. But he cannot do this with Honda Civics, dairy, lumber, etc so I do not understand how this trade war can escalate much further without the rest of the Republicans backing it. That would be unlikely, so why is the fear level so high Garth?

#46 greyhound on 06.27.18 at 7:12 pm

“Seriously. You should pay attention to this.”

Looks like there’s a large financial storm brewing and it will affect everybody including the Americans. A big break in US stocks will likely lead the Fed to resume QE to keep interest rates suppressed and support the stock market. Will that force the US dollar back down?
Will markets then figure out that QE doesn’t work? Then what happens to interest rates? Interesting times.

#47 Lawnboy on 06.27.18 at 7:19 pm

#19; Ditto, lots of places to see in the world and I am voting with my feet, they wont be found south of the 49th.

#48 Jane Wilson on 06.27.18 at 7:24 pm

We have prepared for economic mayhem for 35 years now. Stock market crashes, lower interest rates, 3 job losses, rising high property taxes, water, utility, electricity rates, much higher insurance, food, gasoline prices, NAFTA, 6 recessions etc. etc.

We have laddered strips and GIC’s maturing over the next 30 years.

Each year a $5,000 increase. We start out at year 1 at $90,000, then $95,000, $100,000 etc. etc. and the last year is $235,000.

Protection from rising and falling interest rates and rising cost of living. Since this is a household plan, income split fours ways keeps taxes lower and minimized.

RRSPs and TFSAs maximized keeps 25% at sheltered, tax free as well. No debts, no credit, nothing to pay interest, fees on. Happy Canada Day!

#49 Ivan the Moderate on 06.27.18 at 7:26 pm

ACCORDING TO J.D. POWER’S 2018 VEHICLE DEPENDABILITY STUDY, THE KIA RIO IS THE MOST DEPENDABLE SMALL CAR

https://www.centennialautogroup.ca/en-CA/according-to-jd-powers-2018-vehicle-dependability-study-the-kia-rio-is-the-most-dependable-small-car

#50 Robin on 06.27.18 at 7:27 pm

It’s hard not to believe that Russia didn’t have a hand in electing this President. He’s doing a better job destroying the G7 and other American alliances than America’s enemies ever did.

#51 Capt. Serious on 06.27.18 at 7:29 pm

The problem with a Republic with a President is that it assumes a reasonable man holds the office. Good theory. Evidently flawed in practice.
Only 45 could take an economy that is smoking hot and turn it to recession. The definition of fixing what is not broken. Who knows, maybe it’s all just manipulation for the grossest insider trading ever?

#52 Reynolds531 on 06.27.18 at 7:30 pm

I bought shoes today. Made in China. Not smuggled in from the US.

#53 KLNR on 06.27.18 at 7:33 pm

@#19 Doug t on 06.27.18 at 6:19 pm
I had a 2 week trip to Vegas and Palm Springs booked for November -car booked – hotel booked – flights booked (Air Alaska) – yesterday we cancelled all of it -sent email to the hotels, car company and airline telling them why we cancelled – doesn’t do much but gotta do something

RATM
_______________________

have a cottage in the adirondack booked for a couple weeks. considering doing the same. not because of $ but because that country is broken and getting more divided and dangerous by the minute.

#54 HoweStreet.com on 06.27.18 at 7:34 pm

Ross Kay on HoweStreet.com Radio:
Timing the Housing Market is a Science not Fiction.
Why Canadians are not stressed by the new stress test.

https://www.howestreet.com/2018/06/26/timing-the-housing-market-is-a-science-not-fiction/

#55 45north on 06.27.18 at 7:39 pm

Anyway, the White House is expected to decide in a few weeks whether or not to slap a 25% tariff on cars made in Canada which are then shipped to the States. At stake are the jobs of some 120,000 souls – good ones, generally with high wages, decent benefits and above-average pensions. The auto trade tallies about $62 billion in trade between the two countries. That’s 15% of our entire exports (oil is 20%), accounting for a fifth of all production jobs in Ford Nation.

Jim Watson, mayor of Ottawa has declined his invitation to the July 4 celebration at the US Embassy.

http://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/trade-war-prompts-mayor-watson-to-decline-u-s-ambassadors-party-invitation

This is the right way to express our opposition to Trump’s threat to undo the North American Free Trade Agreement. Unlike Justin Trudeau, who abused his position as host of the G7 to criticize Trump.

#56 Chimingin on 06.27.18 at 7:41 pm

#19 – Yay Doug! I am sure you are disappointed to miss your trip but I applaud your effort.

I just baked a cheesecake with (local) raspberry sauce. I wish I could send it to you to say thanks!

#57 The boulder on 06.27.18 at 7:43 pm

I guess in worst case, Trudeau will bend down, will accept to remove tax on US dairy, and will go for a bilateral deal in lieu of NAFTA. Don’t think he has much choice.

#58 For those about to flop... on 06.27.18 at 7:43 pm

I don’t consider myself special, but as a Caucasian male who is in an interracial marriage and it was I who migrated here ,I get my fair share unusual comments sent my way.

Being a construction worker that works for several developers ,when I work for the guys that were born here a lot of them pine for supposed days gone by but immigrants have always been coming here for different reasons.

It is probably more noticeable now that they mainly pile into Vancouver and Toronto.

” These guys are taking all our jobs” I here a lot of ,and they are normally pointing to someone of Asian appearance.

“You mean guys like me?” I reply.

“Oh,no! Not you!”They usually continue.

” Why not me?”Apparently it is o.k for 6 foot 2 ,250 pound white guys to migrate here but not some small little Asian dude.

When I first tried to come to Canada via a work visa, I had just turned 26 and the cut off was 25.

The next year Australia and Canada changed their agreement and the new limit to get a one year unsponsored working holiday visa was 31 years old.

I applied,and was granted access to Canada.

I only intended on staying 1 year ,working part of the time and catching up with friends I used to live with in London, in British Columbia and Nova Scotia.

I arrived in the winter ,and so started in Vancouver and after enjoying the summer went to Nova Scotia and New York in the Autumn.

During the year I met my future wife and although the details are a little fuzzy as I recall we contacted Ottawa to see what the best course of action was and upon looking at my status,country of origin and ability to carve out a life here and my wife able to sponsor me ,Ottawa told us to get married with their blessing.

We were originally not looking to get married only looking for the best option without having to sneak around or get in trouble with either government.

I didn’t come here to steal anyone’s job.

I didn’t come here to steal anyone’s house.

I was allowed to stay here to be with my wife, a successful union that has lasted 16 years.

No house,no kids,just each other.

What happened to to person that got to go to Australia for a year?

I have no idea.

Two countries entered into and agreement that changed my life.

It’s not all one way traffic.

The door swings both ways…

M44BC

#59 AGuyInVancouver on 06.27.18 at 7:50 pm

#16 islander
Finally –Peter German’s report, ‘DIRTY MONEY’, is out and the suspicions of angry, long-time residents of YVR (of all ethnicities!) have been vindicated.
The Vancouver Model: (laundered money, drugs and real estate) – money made coming and going. We’ve been played big time and didn’t we know it!..
_ _ _
Yes, how is Garth going to spin this story away? From the Globe & Mail:
British Columbia’s dysfunctional regulatory regime for casinos helped fuel a perfect storm for large-scale, transnational money laundering and organized crime networks, a report released Tuesday by Attorney General David Eby says.

“Vancouver is a hub for Chinese-based organized crime,” the report, titled Dirty Money, says, but adds that large quantities of illicit drug money also move through Vancouver casinos related to Mexican drug cartels and others, including Middle East organized crime..
…Mr. German provided 48 recommendations, including a designated police force and specialized prosecutors to help rein in the problem. He also recommends further investigation into allegations of organized crime penetration of real estate…
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/british-columbia/article-bc-casinos-laundromats-for-proceeds-of-organized-crime-report/

#60 When Will They Raise Rates? on 06.27.18 at 8:02 pm

Wow, Trump derangement syndrome (TDS) really turns otherwise intelligent people into raving lunatics. I thought libtards were bad before Trump got elected, now they’ve become completely unhinged! It’s hilarious!

RESIST:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nw9kyYEwg2A

BTW, I know that keeping campaign promises is not what politicians typically do, but when one finally comes along who respects the wishes of those who elected him, only the warped mind of a leftist would consider that despotism.

Turn off CNN, it’s messing you up.

#61 Pepito on 06.27.18 at 8:02 pm

Actually, if you look at the euro and yen, the loony has been fairly stable. It”s the US $ that has risen to higher levels in relation to most currencies, including the Canadian dollar.

#62 For those about to flop... on 06.27.18 at 8:14 pm

I don’t consider myself special, but as a Caucasian male who is in an interracial marriage and it was I who migrated here ,I get my fair share unusual comments sent my way.

Being a construction worker that works for several developers ,when I work for the guys that were born here a lot of them pine for supposed days gone by but immigrants have always been coming here for different reasons.

It is probably more noticeable now that they mainly pile into Vancouver and Toronto.

” These guys are taking all our jobs” I here a lot of ,and they are normally pointing to someone of Asian appearance.

“You mean guys like me?” I reply.

“Oh,no! Not you!”They usually continue.

“Why not me?”Apparently it is o.k for 6 foot 2 ,250 pound white guys to migrate here but not some small little Asian dude.

When I first tried to come to Canada via a work visa, I had just turned 26 and the cut off was 25.

The next year Australia and Canada changed their agreement and the new limit to get a one year unsponsored working holiday visa was 31 years old.

I applied,and was granted access to Canada.

I only intended on staying 1 year ,working part of the time and catching up with friends I used to live with in London, in British Columbia and Nova Scotia.

I arrived in the winter ,and so started in Vancouver and after enjoying the summer went to Nova Scotia and New York in the Autumn.

During the year I met my future wife and although the details are a little fuzzy as I recall we contacted Ottawa to see what the best course of action was and upon looking at my status,country of origin and ability to carve out a life here and my wife able to sponsor me ,Ottawa told us to get married with their blessing.

We were originally not looking to get married only looking for the best option without having to sneak around or get in trouble with either government.

I didn’t come here to steal anyone’s job.

I didn’t come here to steal anyone’s house.

I was allowed to stay here to be with my wife, a successful union that has lasted 16 years.

No house,no kids,just each other.

What happened to to person that got to go to Australia for a year?

I have no idea.

Two countries entered into and agreement that changed my life.

It’s not all one way traffic.

The door swings both ways…

M44BC

#63 yyzer on 06.27.18 at 8:16 pm

Garth, did you learn what Tim Hudak shared at today’s the OREA webinar? You’d mentioned the webinar in a blog last week…

If anyone listened in, it would be great if you shared some details.

#64 leebow on 06.27.18 at 8:17 pm

Trump is a rookie. Compared to sharks like Xi, Putin, most of the European leaders, or pretty much anybody else at that level, who had to make it from the very bottom (one in a billion chance for some!). He’s gonna be the one left holding the bag and not quite able to make sense of what just happened.

#65 Timberr on 06.27.18 at 8:20 pm

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/garth-turner-bank-of-montreal-building-lunenburg-renovations-1.4676815

Congrats Garth on the opening of 12 King Street in Lunenburg! My parents made the trip down to check out the new digs at the open house tonight and were quite impressed. The NS symphony, eats, local art and restoration – super class act.

Thank you for everything – The blog. The restorations. The investment in people and communities. The TFSA. Cheers!

#66 ANON on 06.27.18 at 8:21 pm

Don’t they have a pro business shrewd dude they put their faith in down south? Wha’appened to that guy? I must be getting old. … plus commenting on a “that dude did it” post… :)

#67 MSM-Free Zone on 06.27.18 at 8:22 pm

Watching NATO falling apart, Putin’s online pumping of America’s favourite thin-skinned, serial-lying, draft-dodging man-child to office probably exceeded his wildest dreams.

How long until rational Republicans decide to put their country before their careers and begin abandoning their wackjob Fuhrer v2.0

#68 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.27.18 at 8:31 pm

@#57 Floppie

ahhh, Nova Scotia. I know it well.
Where’d ya stay? Halifax?

#69 georgist on 06.27.18 at 8:33 pm

Either they prop up CAD by raising rates, which tanks housing further, removing “wealth” from boomers, or they hold rates and tank CAD, increasing food costs for boomers.

Either way it seems BoC cannot increase wealth through housing.

Why? Because it’s a lie. Because it’s always been a lie.

#70 Jeff on 06.27.18 at 8:33 pm

so, the pot thing has been going on for a few years, and you think this is all the Liberals are focused on? I’m sure they are just as concerned as you and I are; do you agree with the Liberal’s stance thus far or not? Ford and Harper back him, at least to my knowledge…drop the pot thing and enjoy a scotch

#71 @careeraftschool on 06.27.18 at 8:34 pm

It’s all about perspective. I spoke with a relative from California a few days ago. Middle aged, mid level businessman. Several advanced engineering degrees, international traveler and speaks many languages. Not your stereotypical Trump supporter. He doesn’t even vote.

He said that since Trump took over, the confidence in the US business community is at an all time high. In the business circles he is a part of, people hate Trump personally but admit that they are seeing positive change in the economy. Everyone is hiring and making money. We argued for a few minutes about the damage his actions could do to the global economy. He responded by saying “We care about our economy more than whats happening around the world. We went through a Depression in 2008 and alot of people still haven’t recovered from that.” Think about that for a minute.

Time to build some pipelines people.

#72 Stratovarius on 06.27.18 at 8:39 pm

Legalization of pot can’t come fast enough since you need to calm your nerves. The “despot” that you so warmly refer to has a very simple formula for trade: reciprocity. If you think about it, the vast bulk of trade with our Southern Friend is reciprocal. However, there are a few relatively minor product categories in which Canada imposes unreasonable tariffs. All Mr. Socks needs to do is embrace reciprocity, and everything will be well in the kingdom. In the meantime dear Sir, please toke up and relax; the Donald really is everyone’s friend!

#73 David Eby on 06.27.18 at 8:40 pm

Part two of this investigation now kicks off in analyzing the real estate sector in BC.

Albeit a bit slow here, at least they are finally going to start cracking down on the dirty RE transactions happening will illicit money. This has been widespread since 2006.

Take note how “the apex” of the money laundering “peaked” in 2015.

Right when RE in BC started going crazy, then a year later, RE peaked in BC.

Just a coincidence I am sure. Yeah, right! Nothing to see here. Move along.

Where is our Federal Government?

Doug Ford just turned on the open for business sign in GTA.

#74 Chaddywack on 06.27.18 at 8:42 pm

As the dollar drops it gets cheaper for foreign buyers to buy Vancouver and Toronto real estate.

Maybe the drop is enough to offset the foreign buyers taxes?

#75 Ace Goodheart on 06.27.18 at 8:43 pm

Re: #52 KLNR on 06.27.18 at 7:33 pm
@#19 Doug t on 06.27.18 at 6:19 pm
I had a 2 week trip to Vegas and Palm Springs booked for November -car booked – hotel booked – flights booked (Air Alaska) – yesterday we cancelled all of it -sent email to the hotels, car company and airline telling them why we cancelled – doesn’t do much but gotta do something

RATM
_______________________

have a cottage in the adirondack booked for a couple weeks. considering doing the same. not because of $ but because that country is broken and getting more divided and dangerous by the minute.

Totally agree. Support the Canadian tourism industry. Do not go to the USA.

Canada is huge, beautiful, has micro climates ranging from sub tropical to arctic, and there is a massive, never ending experience here of things to do and people to see and food and drink that rivals any place in the world.

Support the Canadian tourism industry and boycott the USA.

Spread the word…..

#76 jeff on 06.27.18 at 8:43 pm

careeraftschool:

what you say is true, but it did not immediately happen as soon as Trump took power; Obama did a lot to dig the US out of the mess that the Wallstreet bankers created…think about that for a minute

#77 marcus on 06.27.18 at 8:46 pm

Canada’s parasitic and prehistoric economy is NOT situated well. It is by no means “future proof.” Dust off your diplomatic skills Canada …….. Nationalism and Nation States will win this battle vs Globalism.

#78 TRUMP on 06.27.18 at 8:48 pm

GARTH,

OCTOBER can’t come quick enough for you……

Chill out dude, everythings gonna be A OK.

PUFF-PUFF-PASS

#79 Ray on 06.27.18 at 8:48 pm

Bruce Heyman, a former U.S. ambassador to Canada speaks on BNN and gives his take on what is happening to world trade, and specifically with Canada. The short answer is Pres. Trump hates everything Canada stands for and will escalate his attacks on Canada. Mr. Heyman thinks there is a good possibility Pres.Trump will get re-elected in 2020. Pres.Trump is using the same trade tactics against Canada as it is against China, where one is a trusted alley and partner, the other is a real strategic national security threat. I thought this video dove tailed well to to-days blog theme.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OMNSQzK883s

#80 Fear Not on 06.27.18 at 8:51 pm

We have Lady Freeland day after day, and week after week telling us all the NAFTA negotiations are going ahead rather nicely, and we will continue to work on it some more all summer long. Give her another file to work on, because she has caused us enough pain, or send her packing to write another book.

#81 The Real Mark (not the imposter) on 06.27.18 at 8:52 pm

“#4 Screwed Canadian Dollar on 06.27.18 at 5:49 pm
USD/CAD 1.3329 -0.0012 -0.09%
Where is Mark (not the imposter) to tell us how our Loonie will be above par to the green?”

The CAD$ is pretty small and relatively illiquid. As such, it can be pushed completely opposite of natural market forces quite significantly by hedge funds and the like for a considerable period of time before there is a reversal.

But whenever people think that the CAD$ only has down to go, usually things turn around. Long-term, the bottoms are higher, and the highs are higher. Sentiment against Canada is at extreme levels right now in most asset classes except for housing.

Besides, does anyone really think that the Canadian oil and gas industry, already in severe overcapacity and over-investment, will get a free pass by the CAD$ weakening? Of course not. If anything, the very weak prices on Canadian O&G stocks are more indicative of substantial weakness ahead, ie: some combination of a fall in USD$ quoted oil prices, and a rising CAD$ that reduces CAD$-quoted oil prices.

As for hedgies who are betting against the CAD$ believing it to be proxy bet against the Canadian housing market, “perception is reality” in the short term, but in the longer term, I think those folks will have wished that they bothered to understand the basics of what happens to cash in a deflationary economy.

#1 fancy_pants on 06.27.18 at 5:42 pm
Let’s just cut to the chase – rates will remain perpetually low until hyperinflation runs rampant

In a market based economy, credit will disappear and rates will be irrelevant far before “hyperinflation” runs rampant.

Now ask yourself, how much would your neighbours be spending these days if access to HELOCs and credit cards was immediately zero’ed out? Not much at all. Hyperinflation can only occur in economies that are mostly devoid of debt and of productive capacity. Otherwise you end up with deflation, and perhaps even hyperdeflation.

#82 conan on 06.27.18 at 8:52 pm

#6 Fake News Again on 06.27.18 at 5:54 pm

Banned, or here for popcorn value?

#56 The boulder on 06.27.18 at 7:43 pm

Zero chance Canada surrenders their food security to the USA.

BTW Wisconsin farmers are asking Congress for their own Quota system. Too many family farms going under during the lean years, and it works well for perishable farm produce.

#83 Math is Fun on 06.27.18 at 8:53 pm

Poloz the putz can’t let too big of a spread develop between US rates and CDN rates. Canadian govt needs to raise money to pay for all its spending. Nobody is going to be interested in buying Canadian Govt Bonds, if they are paying far lower interest vs other low risk bonds.

If US rates go up, so will Canada’s. Maybe not step for step, but close to it.

#84 SoggyShorts on 06.27.18 at 8:55 pm

#30 Eaglebay on 06.27.18 at 6:40 pm
#16 islander on 06.27.18 at 6:16 pm

Can you explain to me how to go about laundering money in a casino?
The odds are on the casinos side. Maybe they should just give the money away.

****************************
The odds are only slightly in the houses favor. For example blackjack and craps are under 1%.
So if you are willing to pay that rate to clean you cash, and only cash out $9,900 at a time, I guess it works.

#85 Sam Cooper and Kathy Tomlinson Rule on 06.27.18 at 8:56 pm

If it wasn’t for Sam Cooper and Kathy Tomlinson much of this would be business as usual and mostly unknown.

They brought this to the public and the public outraged and pressed for action.

It is going to take awhile to fix, but at least starting today, hopefully a future generation never has to endure such a crisis.

I believe that just like how is ballooned real estate values that the crack down on the illicit money funneling in BC real estate is going to flat out crash the market right at a time when it is already dropping.

#86 SoggyShorts on 06.27.18 at 8:58 pm

#6 Fake News Again on 06.27.18 at 5:54 pm

Says the MARXIST Anti-White RACIST. How are your ANTIFA buddies doing Garth? Are they living in your basement?

**********************************
GARTH, it’s great that you let people post opposing viewpoints, but you really can ban this piece of garbage without anyone who matters thinking less of you.

Now deleted. – Garth

#87 genbizx on 06.27.18 at 8:59 pm

Canada should join the U.S. and be done with this corrupt little experiment called Canada. We spend so much money duplicating administrative structures for areas with city size populations, talking up what we are whether it rings true on the ground or not, and generally trying to hard seem somehow better. Of course we’ve been brainwashed to think we are so different but we’re not. Ask yourself who has more in common: a rural Quebecer and a Kelownite or a Kelownite and a chap from, say , Portland, Oregon. Heck, Quebec would separate if given the chance. Diversity? Tim Hortons? Hockey? Left leaning media who talk about Trump all day instead of our own mistakes? I love Canada but we’d be better as a few American states…Texas has its own culture too as we would have but without the wasteful border. And no more trade war.

#88 earlybird on 06.27.18 at 9:01 pm

Trump is playing a game to get a better deal. Don’t take it personally Canada….

#89 Ace Goodheart on 06.27.18 at 9:02 pm

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/27/elon-musk-says-model-3-delivery-skeptics-are-in-for-a-rude-awakening.html

So the Teslas being produced under the tent in the parking lot are actually better than the ones from the “alien dreadnought” factory.

I hate this guy. I really do. Sometimes someone comes along, breaks all the rules, gets away with it, and then just keeps going in circumstances where any normal person would just crumple up and die.

And yet, he is going to win this.

Elon the alien.

I guess I might as well just go out and buy a model 3.

Never buying TSLA stock though. Not ever. Never…

#90 jess on 06.27.18 at 9:04 pm

trump is a temp. perhaps he knows this …bring em all down attitude?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

President Trump’s Approval Rating Has Been Steady. Richard Nixon’s Once Was Too.

#91 El Joko on 06.27.18 at 9:04 pm

Economists try to explain why their predicted housing market rebound in spring didn’t happen:

https://www.livabl.com/2018/06/economists-predicted-canadian-housing-market-warm-spring-heres-theyre-saying-now.html

#92 For those about to flop... on 06.27.18 at 9:08 pm

#239 Blacksheep on 06.26.18 at 4:20 pm

Flop # 110,

“We don’t have to agree on everything ,but in a way we are all on the same team and we should be messengers in our families and our communities by passing on the useful information that is delivered everyday.”
———————————————–
Flop,
I appreciate your positive sentiment towards the blog and the family shout out, but have to disagree with your thinking that “we are all on the same team”

Why?

For you and I this is a RE blog, first and foremost, as displayed by the content in a very high % of your reports. Sure, we both partake in meaningful banter, but the numbers don’t lie.

You currently do not own, RE in Vancouver (what you’ve said) and you spend a lot of energy trying, (succeeding?) to show the Vancouver RE prices are declining on the blog with said pink snow reports.

I currently do own, RE in Vancouver (mentioned before) but am just to lazy to expend the energy (no gunpowder?) you do, in attempt to support Van RE on the blog, so I for the most part, am just along for the ride.

So, what am I saying?

We have diametrically opposed financial interests when it comes to cost of Van RE. I want prices to stay / be up for my retirement years, you want prices to come down for the benefit of your family’s potential home ownership.

But lets be honest here.

Neither one of us is behaving, altruistically.

It just means we are both are seeking, what’s in our own families, financial best interest and there is absolutely nothing wrong with that. So keep up your reports as many here seem to like them.

No need to respond, just making an observation…

////////////////////////

Blackcreep.

What part of don’t ever write me again can you not get through your thick head?

Write me again and I will no longer post on Greaterfool.

You have had your final warning,I will not waste my time helping out despicable people like yourself.

In the last two weeks I have banged out 32 posts on my Pink Snow blog.

I could write a thousand and this will probably still be my favourite passage I have come up with…

M44BC

“***This blog is dedicated in the memory of Roy H.Stacey ,also known as Boom ,a wonderful man from Wisconsin ,full of wisdom ,that I had the pleasure of conversing with on The Greaterfool blog.

The Pink Snow Project was started as tribute project on that blog shortly after I learned of his passing to honour him for his kindness.***”

M64WI

#93 Mike tompa on 06.27.18 at 9:11 pm

“#18 Roger
The world economy might tank this year. All because of one man….”

-not because the entire world was binging on cheap money for the last 10 years, living way beyond their means…no, not at all….

The chicken is coming home to roost

#94 Smudgekin on 06.27.18 at 9:13 pm

and ya know Garth,

meanwhile organized labor seems all quiet on the front. Where’s the AFL, UAW, UNIFOR etc?

Come on Jerry, autoworkers need more than another natty haircut from you…

#95 salted on 06.27.18 at 9:13 pm

So how can this be shorted? What is the golden lining?

#96 Timmy on 06.27.18 at 9:17 pm

Polz has been using every excuse to keep rates low so as not to blow up the real estate industry so those of you who are waiting for a crash…

#97 Barb on 06.27.18 at 9:26 pm

I don’t want to see our auto industry hurt or see Canadians lose their jobs due to the free trade re-negotiations. I really hope we pull through it okay. But I understand Trump’s position too. He is shaking up the world right now and I don’t think that’s necessarily a bad thing.
This rhetoric of Trump being a blowhard maniac is getting stale. He’s clearly very intelligent and cares about America.
Canada should not take a victim stance on this but stay positive and look for new opportunities in the “chaos.”

#98 Spectacle on 06.27.18 at 9:30 pm

#20 Smoking Man…..

The Gender bathroom Agenda, Yes sinister stuff. It is the Soros gang and his control and destruction of everything ever.

George Soros: the money behind the transgender movement …

#99 Leo Trollstoy on 06.27.18 at 9:30 pm

Mark 77, Apr 7th, 2014:

“I view it as very likely that the CAD$ has probably bottomed out and is moving to parity and beyond — far beyond, over the next number of years. ‘

https://forums.redflagdeals.com/canadian-dollar-its-ups-downs-1442859/15/#p18633499

lol crissy so silly. when called out about ‘next number of years’ prediction, crissy change to a 25 year prediction

lolz

#100 MSM-Free Zone on 06.27.18 at 9:31 pm

#64 Timberr on 06.27.18 at 8:20 pm
“…..Congrats Garth on the opening of 12 King Street in Lunenburg!……”
____________________________

Ditto. Congrats.

Probably on time and on budget as well.

#101 Leo Trollstoy on 06.27.18 at 9:34 pm

lol crissy so wrong so much lulz

no wonder he broke jobless

big words small returns

lolol

#102 For those about to flop... on 06.27.18 at 9:42 pm

Pink Lemonade Stand in Burnaby.

Featured these guys a couple of times and they are still struggling

They just took it off the market and reduced the asking by 100k and put it up as a new listing.

Started off asking 2.16 in November 2017 and have drifted all the way down to 1.79

They paid 1.9 in May 2016 and it is only assessed at 1.65

They are not the only people in trouble on McKee.

Toni Basil sang it best.

Oh McKee,you’re so fine,you’re so fine you blow my mind ,hey McKee.

Hey McKee…

M44BC

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=WFrmapGCuhs

4891 Mckee Place, Burnaby paid 1.9 May 2016 ass1.65

Now asking 1.79

Nov 17:$2,168,000
Feb 9: $1,997,000
Change: – 171000.00 -8%

4891 Mckee Place, Burnaby

Nov 17:$2,168,000
May 10: $1,890,000
Change: – 278000.00 -13%

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAzV0YzRg==

https://www.zolo.ca/burnaby-real-estate/4891-mckee-place

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Feel free to make a donation.

Flop For Fox Fund…

http://www.terryfox.org/get-involved/ways-to-give/

#103 young & foolish on 06.27.18 at 9:48 pm

Don’t bet against America ???

#104 Samuel on 06.27.18 at 9:50 pm

We need Mr. Dressup to get on a plane to Washington and tell Canada he won’t return until he has a new NAFTA deal. We win either way.

#105 What can I say about that? on 06.27.18 at 9:50 pm

#1 fancy_pants on 06.27.18 at 5:42 pm

———————————————————

Exactly! Why doesn’t everyone see the blatantly obvious fact that rates will NEVER rise to level of 10 years ago. The economy can’t stand that and so rates will NOT rise. The system now depends on increasing debt at all levels. Eventually, the whole precarious house of cards will come tumbling down. Definitely. Somehow. Massive, forever increasing debt is just NOT sustainable. Under the current plan, hyperinflation is quite possible.

#106 Moses71 on 06.27.18 at 9:52 pm

Well since some people are screaming that minimum wage is too high at $15/hr, how about we keep auto industry jobs and pay them the “new wage”?
Ever spoke to any of those people who work there? Human overpaid entitled robots.

#107 John on 06.27.18 at 9:58 pm

Putin is the smartest dude around. Brexit. with UK leaving EU. Controls Trump and has him fighting with all the NATO allies. Guy is a genious.

#108 conan on 06.27.18 at 10:07 pm

#87 earlybird on 06.27.18 at 9:01 pm

“Trump is playing a game to get a better deal. Don’t take it personally Canada….”

Too late. No other Country is going deal with Trump. We call it the “asshole rule.”

Trump can bring grief to his people, and pay the price in November. You want a deal, then pay us a big WTO penalty.

Trump is cornered, and he did it to himself. Very much like a reverse Sun-Tzu.

#109 Hawk on 06.27.18 at 10:09 pm

We can keep wallowing in negativity and blaming Trump all we want, for everything, for all the good it will NOT do.

Or we can eat a slice of humble pie and require selfie boy, or preferably someone sensible, to accept the de-facto reality of “not betting against America”, and commence the process of mending the US/Canada relationship.

It’s our choice!

#110 The Real Mark (not the imposter) on 06.27.18 at 10:10 pm

“Canadian govt needs to raise money to pay for all its spending. Nobody is going to be interested in buying Canadian Govt Bonds, if they are paying far lower interest vs other low risk bonds.”

And the markets determine those rates all the time. As it stands, Canadian debt of all maturities trades at considerably lower yields than USD$-debt. The implication here being that the market anticipates that part of the return on CAD$-denominated debt will be appreciation in the CAD itself, in addition to the coupon return. As it stands, the CAD$ yield curve is extremely flat and there is no risk of any creditworthy CAD$-issuer being unable to fund its debt financing in CAD$.

Actually if you look at the longer-term evidence, money chases falling and lower rates, not higher rates. Its the high interest rate currencies that tend to experience depreciation. Why? Because a central bank typically will only raise interest rates in response to inflation, and inflation, by definition, is a weakening of the currency relative to goods and services people use the currency to purchase. Sure, you can get 10% interest rates in various emerging market currencies, but chances are pretty good that between inflation and taxes, most of those returns will be wiped out.

Even in Canada, savings accounts/GICs/etc. have had better returns in low rate environments than high rate environments. Run through the math sometime, you’ll see that higher rates that are typical of higher inflation environments produce negative real after-tax rates of return. Very positive, of course, if you’re the issuer of debt, but if you’re the owner of the debt (ie: an investor/saver), higher rates are at a huge loss.

As for Canadian deficits, they’re actually lower under Trudeau than they were under Harper. Harper ran, what, $27B/year, which would be closer to $32-$34B/year if you did normal CPI adjustments. Trudeau’s deficit last year was $23B (Dec 2016- Dec 2017).

#98, pretty rich nonsense coming from the person who thinks that RE actually peaked in 2017, rather than the actual 2013 peak. The nonsense you spew here runs very strong. Really unfortunate.

#111 Comncerned Reader on 06.27.18 at 10:17 pm

#43 Balmuto on 06.27.18 at 7:09 pm

I agree with you. It is disappointing that the Liberals didn’t ignore Trump, and state it exactly the way you did. We are not a strong enough nation to really do anything about the tarriffs, but at least we wouldn’t have punished our own citizens and looked so weak internationally.

#112 Doug in London on 06.27.18 at 10:29 pm

I see some comments here said they’re cancelling trips to The States. Will this boycotting the United States actually do any good?

Given that the United States is the largest economy in The World, and also highly diversified the impacts will be minimal so why bother? I figure that by buying more Canadian goods that will keep more money in the economy. It won’t do much good for workers who could lose their job in the automotive industry, but will at least help out other sectors of the economy.

One place such a boycott might be noticed would be if a lot of Canadians didn’t bother going to Florida or other southern USA destinations. It wouldn’t be devastating, but tourist operators would probably notice the loss of business. Just think, business that would otherwise go to The States ends up going to Mexico or Cuba instead! I’m sure the Trump administration would like that.

Last but not least, there’s plenty to see right here at home in Canada. Anyone here planning to drive that new road to Tuktoyaktuk, NT this year?

#113 meslippery on 06.27.18 at 10:38 pm

#32 Strathcona on 06.27.18 at 6:50 pm

I don’t see this all as a bad thing. There used to be a time when your TV set was made in Canada. Washer, Dryer, most of the appliances. Each would be a massive spend, not disposable like today. If any of them broke down, it was way cheaper to pay someone to fix them then to replace.

In this small example, jobs to make it expensively in Canada. Jobs to repair it expensively in Canada. The days of filled e-waste depots of old Chinese exports could someday be behind us.
—————
Some old fridges now maybe beer fridges from the 60s
are still working so yes you paid more than made in (fill in the blank) but the stuff could be repaired and that was local work for repair folk. Just cause it costs more to make at home is not necessarily bad if it serves you
forever.

#114 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.27.18 at 10:46 pm

@#239 Blacksheepdip

Soooooo
You own Real Estate in the Lowerbrainland and are annoyed that The Flopster produces verifiable stats DAILY that real estate is dropping in value.

And the best arguement you can come up with is….he rents therefore he has an ulterior motive to report Real Estate values are dropping?

Wow…..
Its all about you because your long term investment program is………… prices must always go up………..

Well, Daddy Warbucks….there are many many potential buyers and many many renters that appreciate the Flopsters endless hours of work posting ACTUAL Real Estate sales reports that the scum in the real estate sales industry try to hide or spin……
and if you dont like hearing the truth………
Go somewhere else.

#115 crossbordershopper on 06.27.18 at 10:47 pm

trump is going to rip a patch out of trudeau. trump writes books on how to squash, out hussle, out legal people Trudeau isnt in his league. i honestly want trump to put a tarrif on the auto sector the dairy farmers etc.
reality is canada business is nothing compared to the americans. if the americans have to feel some pain for the adjustment it will go away. i always thought that southern ontario has been riding the coat tails of the usa for far too long.
its time canada start paying its way and not being protected like in the past. Trump owes nothing to no one, except to make america great again, its not a slogan. its a vision, a heat filled passion belief in your country and to truely try to create wealth employment and control for its citizens. Trudeau, what do you want me to say, it seems like he thinks Canada is a temp job before he moves to brussells or switzerland or france or something on some international post. All to the canadian citizens costs.

#116 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.27.18 at 10:49 pm

Garth ,
Well done on the restoration of the BMO in Lunenburg.
Another part of Canadian History given a new lease on life.

#117 YVR - 60% crash! on 06.27.18 at 10:51 pm

#19 Doug t

I had a 2 week trip to Vegas and Palm Springs booked for November -car booked – hotel booked – flights booked (Air Alaska) – yesterday we cancelled all of it -sent email to the hotels, car company and airline telling them why we cancelled – doesn’t do much but gotta do something

Don’t forget to cancel your American TV, stop listen to american musics and be sure ban all the vegetable this comming winter cuz we aren’t got no vegies during winter months.
Good luck cuz you’re going to need it.

#118 CTV Exclusive on 06.27.18 at 10:56 pm

Harpo will be going to the WH next week for consultations. Will he meet with the Beast?

#119 Realtors = communists on 06.27.18 at 11:00 pm

Time to open up your communist website and time to shut down communist CMHC. Why no CONservative loving communists complain about communist CMHC? Oh you are communist SHYSTERS who dont like to work? Oh I see. Communist Harper was ok to allow taxpayer money to back fraudulent mortgages? The communist CONservatives have got to go. Lazy communists dont like to work.

#120 Doug in London on 06.27.18 at 11:03 pm

@meslippery, post 3112:
Would anyone here actually believe me if I said my old 1986 vintage RCA TV was assembled in Prescott, Ontario? Come to think of it many years ago I had an Electrohome TV that, if my memory serves me right, was assembled in Kitchener. There may still be some old appliances around that were made my McClary, right here in the Forest City.

#121 Smoking Man on 06.27.18 at 11:07 pm

Anyone who has cold called on thousands of people in sales, or read trumps book art of the deal knows exactly what he’s up too.
Those who have not, those that don’t know how to catch or hunt a meal will probably dislike him.. Govt workers for example they are feed by hunters, naturally they hate him.

#122 Lots Of Food on 06.27.18 at 11:10 pm

#116 YVR – I eat vegetables all winter long in Canada.

#123 yvr_lurker on 06.27.18 at 11:19 pm

We have been boycotting the U.S. since Trump came into power. No cross-border shopping (the outlet malls near YVR are decently cheap), no need to go down there for any reason. Have been to Nicaragua on holiday at Xmas, and it was a really good trip (need to know a little spanish though). It won’t make a wit of a difference, but if many Canadians followed the same plan, it would be noticeable in Florida, and Arizona in the winter, and frankly there are much more interesting places to visit in Central America.

If Canada develops closer trading ties with Europe and stands with the other members of G7 who hopefully will have some collective resolve to fight back, this is our best chance. However, Trump poking the bear in China may come back to bite him in the ass, as the Chinese will for sure develop a coordinated centralized plan to retaliate in so many ways (economically, calling in their loans, and politically by developing partnerships with countries that are not aligned with the US). I think China will be Trump’s downfall if he goes hard at them….

#124 Oft deleted much maligned stock.picker on 06.27.18 at 11:21 pm

The Canadian economy is in free fall under Trudeau/Butts….no way Poloz pulls the trigger . Short CDN is a global theme. World wants Trudeau out….Foreign investment is fighting to get out….it’s a flood….SMEs begging Trudeau to get his head out of arse….to no avail. Trudeau is anti Trump and he’s standing with Obama and EU protectionists .

#125 AB Boxster on 06.27.18 at 11:40 pm

I’m not a fan of seeing people lose well paid jobs.

That was one of the reasons I supported the bailout of the auto industry by the Harper government. It seemed the Canadian thing to do.

But, now I don’t think I really care now about this industry or dairy producers in Ontario or Quebec.

They are not in Alberta.
We have our own issues to deal with, what with 4 years of the worst job killing recession still impacting our economy and Ottawa killing all the pipeline projects that might help us recover.

And then refusing to listen to any changes to the ridiculous equalization formula that continues to enrich Quebec and Ontario at the expense of provinces like Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland (yes, wealthy Newfoundland with its 15% unemployment rate)

And, as Canadians, and their government of central idiots has shown, what is really important is to kowtow and pay homage only to your tribe.
That being BC only for Comrade Horgan and many BCites, and Ontario and Quebec , for the Liberal virtue feminists.

Garth, you write far too much on tribalism at the national level as is exhibited by Trump. The real danger is tribalism at the political and cultural, and individual level.

Watch the tribal left in the US call for violence against men and women they disagree with.
See them call for the physical and sexual assault of their children. Tribalism at its best.

The Global warming tribalists, the left wing media tribalists, the identity politics that seeks to break society down into its tribes of gays, blacks, transgendered, indigenous, left, right, eyi eyi o.
That is the real concern.
Listen to Jordan Peterson on this. He has nailed this issue perfectly.

But tribalism is hard to fight against.
It’s hard to be a Canadian tribalist when your government does not support Canada or Canadians.

It’s hard to support other Canadian regions when the regions don’t really give a flying F about your region, other than to suck them dry through equalization.

So I’m just going to become a tribalist as well.

Alberta all the way.
Whatever is good for Alberta I will support.
Whatever is good or bad for he rest of Canada, I’m really ambivalent about.

If Trump helps build Keystone and it is good for Alberta, hey I will love Trump.
If Trump kills thousands of jobs in the east, well it sucks to be you.

The global warming tribalists will be happy too, given all of the C02 that will be reduced when no autos are produced in Ontario.
See how tribalism works?

As good Liberal Keith Davey said in 1980 – ‘Screw the West. We’ll take the rest’

It’s pretty much the same today, and frankly the Liberals can have the rest.
It took 20 years, after T1 and his band of Liberal bandits, for Alberta to feel that it had a stake in the country. (Well other than Alberta’s role in perpertually contributing to economic basket case provinces)

And here we are again, another Trudeau leading this once-great nation into economic oblivion.
And supporting the breakdown of Canada into a multitude of tribal interests.

This Canada day, I’ll be happy to fly the Alberta flag.

#126 Dead Cat Bounce on 06.27.18 at 11:44 pm

https://www.myrealtycheck.ca/

2201 Price changes in GVRD RE in June… 1894 DOWN !!!

M55BC

#127 Jimini on 06.27.18 at 11:51 pm

Trump is making Canadians choose between their own national interests and the interests of the globalist establishment.

That is what good leaders do, lead people to make the right decisions.

#128 waiting on the westcoast on 06.27.18 at 11:55 pm

Hey Flop,

I enjoy your posts and stories.

WRT the story of your immigration… it is not a zero sum game. Don’t fall into the trap of the victims of our society who need to blame others for their misfortune or poor choices.

You worked hard, you did well, you have had some luck and you give/care about the community! Thank you for being a big part of Canada!

#129 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.28.18 at 12:19 am

@#116 YVR
“Don’t forget to cancel your American TV, stop listen to american musics and be sure ban all the vegetable this comming winter cuz we aren’t got no vegies during winter months.
Good luck cuz you’re going to need it.”
+++++

Ladies and Gentlemen.
An English Lit Major from Trump University…….

#130 Canada=Poor cousin of U.S on 06.28.18 at 12:20 am

The problem is, in this fight between the elephant and mouse, its a no brainer to tell who wins. I feel bad for Canada.

#131 jane24 on 06.28.18 at 12:42 am

Thanks for this Garth. Note to self, get money out of Canada today and into euros to pay for new bathroom. £ is holding steady so leave that.

Why the Trump hate? His job is not to maintain Canada but to build the USA. That is what he was elected by American voters to do, bring the jobs back and he is doing it. Why would he care about other countries, he is not their President. With 400 million people plus the USA doesn’t really need the rest of the world. It is massive enough to be a self-sufficient entity.

Canada’s problem is that it has always expected the neighbour to play nice. Canada has no strategies for supporting itself.

#132 Dolce Vita on 06.28.18 at 1:04 am

NAFTA is dead.

Trump wants 1 on 1 trade accords and will have his way with Canada & Mexico if they want to sell to America. Trump cares only about America. He has said so enough times.

Canadians are THICK to this fact.

They cannot believe that “Leave it to Beaver” next door would do such a thing [bad, but irresistible pun].

Supply chains will readjust as they did when NAFTA came into being. As it took years for them to adjust to the then new reality of NAFTA, it will take years to revert back to what was before NAFTA – but revert they will.

Nothing is irreversible save Acts of God.

Pray for an Act of God Canada [a good one].

As I have said for at least 1 year:

Recession and RE asset values crashing in 4th Quarter 2018 [the latter historical].

The writing was on the wall.

#133 rp on 06.28.18 at 1:33 am

Markets will remain very volatile for the next several months.People are pulling money out of the markets and there is very little hope to get satisfactory nafta deal before the end of this year.Markets will tank in the next 2-3 weeks and then near the end of august markets will be sliding down further for several months as usual.Retired persons should be very very careful now and they must protect their money in a very conservative portfolio where they can make 4-6% and enjoy good sleep.

#134 fishman on 06.28.18 at 1:57 am

Rally round the flag boys. Like my old man in the back of an army truck in 43 going through Quebec to an Air Force base to fly patrol over the North Atlantic. They weren’t allowed off the truck. Weren’t allowed off base in La Belle Province ever.
B. C.& Alberta plundered by Central Canada. Like Tito asking Stalin for a smelter. Don’t worry son, mother Russia will make the steel, you just send us the ore.
Out here we got our choice; unite as Canadians & we got a chance with the Yanks, divide & they’ll eat us. But what’s the use: the west’s resources are bargaining chips to be dealt away for Eastern interests like the Maritimes was hundred years ago.
I don’t want to be a Yank but my detestation of Liberal Central Canada feudalism just keeps growing. The two solitudes in Canada isn’t red & blue but east & west. The Trumpster got a big sledge hammer & a cold hardened steel wedge & he keeps pounding it. Sooner or later we’ll all have to pick a side to jump to. I could never jump to a post modern Liberal politically correct side. Never.

#135 Stan Brooks on 06.28.18 at 2:50 am

Unstable despot?

More wind into the windmill of the strange guy south.
The more you spit on him and attack him, the stronger he becomes.

And still can’t help it shutting up, can’t we?

For our economy’s sake we should wise up and protect our interests, not the interest of globalists represented by a very, very intellectually limited fancy socks guy who choose to derail pretty much agreed upon revised NAFTA with his transgender stupidities and confrontation vs. cooperation only to please his global masters.

And you know what? Like his daddy he most likely will be rewarded with reelection for ruining us.

As for BoC I think that Poloz will not raise rates. This is the wrong guy at the wrong place at the wrong time.

Loonie about to dive, as I said, targeting 0.6-es for now, despite oil getting more expensive.
Combined with Canadian tariffs on US goods we are going to get one hell of a nice inflation which of course will not be recognized by BoC.

So sad.

#136 Stan Brooks on 06.28.18 at 2:56 am

As for socker/football:

I posted here 10 days ago on Germany, Sweden, Mexico,
look at what happened (exactly as I said it would, based on knowledge of current conditions for these teams), Sweden and Mexico moving ahead, Mexico and South Korea beating Germany, Germany, the ‘most likely’ champion out at the last place in the group.

Six sigma event? Like it never happened before?

Coming to the Canadian and local municipal economies near you very, very soon.

Brace for impact and take cover.

#137 Blacksheep on 06.28.18 at 3:29 am

crowdedelevatorfartz # 113,

“And the best arguement you can come up with is….he rents therefore he has an ulterior motive to report Real Estate values are dropping?”

“Wow…..

Its all about you because your long term investment program is………… prices must always go up………..”
————————
Yes, oh smelly one, you are 100% correct.

That IS, the very best argument I can come up with because it’s the truth. Notice, saint flop didn’t even attempt a rebuttal beyond, “I’m gonna leave if you”
cause I mean really, what’s he gonna say?

I’m doing it for the children!!!

Please…

And clearly you’ve got nothing for me either, witnessed by your scathing response: “You just want houses to go up forever” Well yes, of course I do, but I thought I made that part clear.

I only stumbled upon his: Sermon from the mount, while reading the blog from the bottom up, when Love Guru (#202) quoted Garth’s:

“I’m hating this blog tonight”

My standard go to is I skip right by, he who must not be named. I assumed he was doing the same with mine, until tonights hissy fit.

So…I have an agenda, he clearly has an agenda, we all have a friggin agenda. Difference is, I am not ashamed of wanting whats in my family’s best interest and I unapologetically admit it.

#138 3s on 06.28.18 at 4:50 am

Oh stop spreading panic. Here in Australia we successfully got rid of car manufactures all together and plugged the whole by upping housing construction.

#139 Dan on 06.28.18 at 6:03 am

Looks like Trump was right and protecting local industries is a matter of national security. If only we had a Trump here.

#140 Censor Much on 06.28.18 at 6:23 am

Rate hikes are done, QT is done.

We will see the US 10 year at 2% before we see it at 3%.

No real trade wars will break out. All it will take to shelf that will be a 2K down day on the Dow

#141 Mini on 06.28.18 at 6:27 am

We will see 2% on the US 10 year before we see 3%

Interest rate hikes are done; QT will end in a couple of months, and a new round of QE will start.

No trade wars; a 2k down day on the Dow will put an end to that.

#142 Stan Brooks on 06.28.18 at 7:01 am

#98 Leo Trollstoy on 06.27.18 at 9:30 pm
Mark 77, Apr 7th, 2014:

“I view it as very likely that the CAD$ has probably bottomed out and is moving to parity and beyond — far beyond, over the next number of years. ‘

—————————–

The guy/Mark is delusional.

With all this raging inflation and much more to come with the loonie going sub .65 next year as per official estimates and tariffs looming on US imports which will further escalate inflation (most of produce is imported from California), he sees an imaginary ‘deflation’.

NAFTA is going bust fast, auto tariffs looming, trading with US is toast, we are at peak credit and no meaningful rate increase is possible for CAD while US is increasing rates steadily.

So the sh..ty loonie is going down, big time, hedge accordingly.

Look at Poloz and BoC and stop right there, look no furhter.
I will never ever trust anything issued/in control of such dilettantes and incompetents.

#143 Bill C-21 on 06.28.18 at 7:03 am

Big Brother will be watching you now if it passes the Senate in the Fall. All personal data will be collected on Canadians entering and leaving the country. Will they share this information with the USA? You could loose more freedoms, and what ever happened to the Chapter of Rights and Freedoms or the so-called Privacy Act? In some ways it has a few good points, because it will save government money, but some citizens could loose entitlements.

#144 Stan Brooks on 06.28.18 at 7:13 am

#123 Oft deleted much maligned stock.picker on 06.27.18 at 11:21 pm
The Canadian economy is in free fall under Trudeau/Butts….no way Poloz pulls the trigger . Short CDN is a global theme. World wants Trudeau out….Foreign investment is fighting to get out….it’s a flood….SMEs begging Trudeau to get his head out of arse….to no avail. Trudeau is anti Trump and he’s standing with Obama and EU protectionists .

===============================

Nice summary of what to expect.

The dangerous part is that things are unraveling very quickly, much faster than I expected.

#145 New Era on 06.28.18 at 7:23 am

Before complaining abut Trump and his policies, try looking at things from his perspective.

The USA has a market full of demand that everyone covets.

Therefore, you charge full price for admission – why would you discount for anybody when your product (the USA market ) is in such high demand ?

He is not even asking for a premium to enter that market , just reciprocity and “fairness”.

He is enacting / threatening policies that, to his mind and the minds of his advisors, achieve that goal.

Canadians and all trade partners will have to respect his outlook and negotiate the best they can.

If you were in his position and holding all the cards, would you not use this to your country’s advantage in the way you saw fit ?

#146 Wrk.dover on 06.28.18 at 7:25 am

Picture of About to Flop canvassing for the Terry Fox fund?

#147 New Era on 06.28.18 at 7:41 am

Canadians are finally being jarred out of their sleepy bubble existence of hockey, Tim Hortons , socialist bs and apathy.

Rocked by the economic reality of America moving (albeit clumsily) to further its interests , they are shocked to find that the bs liberal “sunny ways” construct is all an illusion and their leaders truly incompetent fools.

Freeland, Truedopeand his entire cabinet may be just posturing, virtue signalling cretins, but Canadians voted them in and they are representative of the ‘unicorns farting candies’ lalala world that most Canadians live in.

Now the ‘leaders’ of Canada and its deluded public are having reality forced upon their demented socialist dreams and have no clue of how to stop this particular macroaggression.

I repeat – most Canadians live in a bubble which is now breaking as reality intrudes into their silly delusions.

Time for Canada to grow up.

#148 Oft deleted much maligned stock.picker on 06.28.18 at 7:45 am

News Flash …both Poloz and Trudeau both say “Duuuuuuhhhhh!” Never in my life has Canada been represented by such a brainless cabal of “Dddddduuuuuuhhh”.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/the-daily-chase-poloz-leaves-bay-street-guessing-trudeau-meets-with-top-ceos-1.1100204

Meanwhile Gerald Butts shoots self in the face with his ignorant tweet that under Harper the NAFTA deal would have already been done. A no-deal he says means that he and Justin haven’t “rolled over”…excuse.me…but I think they’ve been rolling over far too much…..maybe that’s the problem. He and Mr Dressup don’t seem to understand that NAFTA is about Canadian jobs…..not the radical politics of two hand puppets.

#149 Shawn on 06.28.18 at 7:53 am

Since the S&P500 peak in late Jan 2018, US small caps are up ~2%. Emerging markets are down ~25%.

#150 Shawn on 06.28.18 at 7:54 am

Latin America is down ~35% in USD.

Surprising the TSX is near ATHs – a sign of strength.

#151 Shawn on 06.28.18 at 7:57 am

Recent market price action suggests future leadership from developed markets (ie US, Canada & Europe) over developing and emerging markets.

#152 New Era on 06.28.18 at 8:10 am

to #124 AB Boxster

Great post and sadly true.

As a “crow from the East” ( Ontario), I worked in Alberta on a drilling rig to pay for my university education. What a great opportunity I was given and always reflect on that time with great fondness.

The province and people of Alberta taught me many life lessons by their example and helped me start on my adult life journey. I will always be grateful to and respectful of that great province.

Alberta is a different kind of place and was a great place for a young man to mature or a family to live in.

I can understand your love of the place and your disdain for the sad ‘cultures’ of Ontario and Quebec.

If I was an Albertan, I would wait until the next national election before deciding to leave or join the party that wants to secede.

If the Liberals win, you will have major decisions to make.

Good luck to all Albertans – not that they need it – they have been making their own luck for a very long time !

#153 Ezzy on 06.28.18 at 8:11 am

What was it that was occurring at a large scale shortly before Rome fell? At least, the western half of the empire.

Oh yeah! Decadence.

Also, weed = Soma (Brave New World). Look it up. It’s not a conspiracy, it’s a self fulfilling prophecy.

#154 Bytor the Snow Dog on 06.28.18 at 8:25 am

91 Flop sez:

“Write me again and I will no longer post on Greaterfool.”
——————————————————————-

Is that a threat or a promise?

#155 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.28.18 at 8:38 am

@#136 Blacksheepskin

Sooooo.
Its only happy happy thoughts and “lets not talk about price declines.”

Newsflash Ostrich head
House prices are DROPPING.
Housing sales are TANKING.
The ponzi flipper shell game and the offshore money is over.
The NDP are issuing daily reports on the corruption that drove us to this point.
And no amount of whining on your part will change that.
If you bought in the last two years you’re going to lose.
If you want prices to continue to go up so that you can benefit you’re either a realtor or( at the risk of repeating myself) a greedy prick that doesnt care about the vast majority of people that cant afford to buy anything.
Its all about you. I get it.

Enjoy the housing price and sales slump because if its anything thing like what happened in the 80’s……epic price drops
But you keep blaming people for speaking the truth backed up with verifiable stats.
That’ll make things better.

Happy Housing Crash Everyone

#156 dharma bum on 06.28.18 at 8:54 am

#5 Bob C

“Replace those good jobs with more bartenders and wait people.”
——————————————————————–

That’s right. Professions and vocations that at least serve a USEFUL purpose!

Mmmmmmmmm….alcohol……fooooooood………

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=msQPHxTUgzI

#157 dharma bum on 06.28.18 at 9:00 am

The original Trump VS Trudeau story:

https://i1.wp.com/farm3.static.flickr.com/2255/4531750940_455c96cc79_o.jpg

#158 Big Kahuna on 06.28.18 at 9:05 am

Anyone can look at the trade stats-compared to the USA, Germany and France combined hardly buy anything from Canada-so what does Trudeau do? Make a huge splash at the G7 kissing up to Merkel and Macron and disrespecting Trump. Trudeau appears to be focused on climbing up the globalist heirarchy at any cost and if the cost is sacrificing Canada so be it.

#159 Soma on 06.28.18 at 9:07 am

#152 Ezzy: – I am familiar with Soma in that book, and agree entirely with your association to weed, because there is a well defined association of what is coming down our way into a greater darkness.

#160 dharma bum on 06.28.18 at 9:11 am

#26 Scared

“Every day I’m angrier at the people who came before me for letting it get this bad.”
——————————————————————–

Don’t worry, smoke legal weed and drink legal weed infused beer!

Everything gonna be alriiiiiight, maaaaaan!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WGfOW0KwfGk

#161 Kick out the jams on 06.28.18 at 9:21 am

How does one actually buy US $ denominated assets? Any suggestions on this?

#162 saskatoon on 06.28.18 at 9:25 am

“movement”?

“despot”?

“unstable”?

“global meltdown”?

hyperbole much today, garth?

lol

#163 dharma bum on 06.28.18 at 9:26 am

#103 Samuel

“We need Mr. Dressup to get on a plane to Washington and tell Canada he won’t return until he has a new NAFTA deal.”
——————————————————————–

Excellent idea.

Here’s the dress-up costume he can wear to pander to the Americans:

https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/61tsKZwnVtL._SL1000_.jpg

#164 Rationalization on 06.28.18 at 9:35 am

The major premise for the Weed Bill was bogus. The illegal was made legal based upon protecting the younger citizens, and taking the profits away from the criminal element. The situation before was very limited, and compartmentalized throughout society because one needed where to go for the purchase of a dime bag, and could be a cop your buying from to be arrested. Now in short order, one will be able to buy it anywhere and even grow it at home. Who have become the legal criminals now, who are taking a cut called taxation on a much larger scale? Society has been had in my opinion with social consequences coming our way in a variety of forms. T2 stated its time we took control of it all, for a better way of doing things.

#165 Dissident on 06.28.18 at 9:36 am

So last night, I had to cite this blog to dissuade my newly-retired mother to not buy a $800,000 new build condo by the Humber River (the same cockroach-ridden neighborhood they settled in after they met as 20-year-old immigrants in Toronto).

She was complaining about the fact that the model suite’s kitchen cupboards don’t even have hardware, “just a lip of the wood to open and close with”, and “I can’t believe they charge me maintenance fees to keep a locker!”, and “can you believe the property taxes on this thing”, and “what if those cockroaches infest this new building too?” (Mom knows cockroaches don’t discriminate between rentals and luxury condos).

Her reason for going to check out this condo with Dad in tow – “I thought I was missing out.” My mom has FOMO. Even at 65. She sees all her neighbors selling their houses and moving into new condos and she thinks she has to do the same thing.

I said, “Mom, just cause neighbor 1 and 2 did this, doesn’t mean you have to. And don’t forget, neighbor 3 lived next door to you till she kicked the bucket – she made it work with an in-home care-giver – you don’t have to move! And if you can’t deal with the house when you get older, then you’ll either sell it or rent it out and move into a rental apartment! Either way, your house would pay your rent, not for another mortgage! Don’t tie up your equity in a new home in your old age! What if you need the money liquid!?” Etc, etc, etc.

Anyways, after talking some sense into her, she saw the error of her ways. That’s one less sad home buyer email that Garth needs to read in his inbox.

#166 IHCTD9 on 06.28.18 at 9:37 am

#157 NoName on 06.27.18 at 3:38 pm
#151 IHCTD9 on 06.27.18 at 1:50 pm

Next step is getting the message across in a passive manner that they should not be dating anyone that does not have similar ambitions, earning potential, and demonstrated financial knowledge as them.

Horror stories everyone with kids not yet married should read:

https://talkaboutmarriage.com/financial-problems-marriage/

—-

My new book just came in, first section deals with meariage and devorce topic.

section 1, chapter 5.
https://imgur.com/a/29qikM0
_____

I look back to when I first started seeing my eventual Wife, I was only 18 years old! I was thinking about what a babe she was – never a single thought given to financial compatibility!

I got LUCKY. Who would have guessed just how bad it would become in Divorce Court for the bread winner of the couple near 30 years later. The stories on that forum – especially about divorce/infidelity – are terrifying.

It won’t be easy, but my boys need to have a good grasp of the risks involved in divorce these days, and understand just how carefully they need to pick their mate.

I don’t know if the kind of character that keeps a couple together through thick and thin even exists out there anymore. Everyone’s a snowflake.

Hence, damage control needs to start even before marriage these days. Financial compatibility is definitely under rated.

#167 Oft deleted much maligned stock.picker on 06.28.18 at 9:57 am

No rate hike….it’s official

https://business.financialpost.com/

It’s official when they say so. – Garth

#168 For those about to flop... on 06.28.18 at 9:58 am

I’m only putting this post up because I want Vancouver real estate to come down.

All renters are losers that are waiting to buy.

Too many selfish people on this blog.

Someone had to die before I decided to switch from being a commenter and try and be a contributor…

M44BC

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With numbers this big, it’s easy to see why the SEC might want to get involved. Investopediadefines a security as a “fungible, negotiable financial instrument that holds some type of monetary value.” According to the SEC’s chief cryptocurrency official, William Hinman, bitcoin and ether do not qualify as securities because of their decentralization. There is no third party expecting to make a return. In other words, there’s no underlying ownership in a company or a brokerage generating the initial public offering.

That being said, Hinman chose his words carefully, saying: “Over time, there may be other sufficiently decentralized networks and systems where regulating the tokens or coins that function on them as securities may not be required.” That means the SEC will determine whether a cryptocurrency counts as a security on a case-by-case basis, like Ripple.

There are a lot of good reasons for the SEC to evaluate cryptocurrencies one at a time. For one thing, our graph shows how the market is still exploding, even if it has slowed down a bit in Q2 for 2018. The continued interest in ICOs is one reason the SEC created a fake website, warning investors about suspicious ICOs. After all, a lot of ICOs are clearly scams with fake founders and plagiarized whitepapers. Remember the one with Floyd Mayweather’s endorsement but which was later found to be fraud? Some cryptocurrencies are less outrageous but should still raise the eyebrow of a discerning investor, like the currency invented by a bunch of Russians called bananacoin.

All of this goes to show the SEC may still have a valuable role to play in eliminating bad actors from the market. What do you think? Should the SEC get involved in regulating the crypto market? Send us an email and tell us your opinion at [email protected].”

https://howmuch.net/articles/the-ico-explosion-in-the-past-5-years

#169 Smoking Man on 06.28.18 at 10:06 am

Attention Deplorables

Facebook is getting ready to censor your posts in next years election if you are critical of T2.
Put your political content in images. Their algos can’t read them. Lets make Canada a free speech zone again.

#170 Blacksheep on 06.28.18 at 10:19 am

AB # 124,

“I’m not a fan of seeing people lose well paid jobs.

That was one of the reasons I supported the bailout of the auto industry by the Harper government. It seemed the Canadian thing to do.

But, now I don’t think I really care now about this industry or dairy producers in Ontario or Quebec.

They are not in Alberta.

We have our own issues to deal with, what with 4 years of the worst job killing recession still impacting our economy and Ottawa killing all the pipeline projects that might help us recover.

And then refusing to listen to any changes to the ridiculous equalization formula that continues to enrich Quebec and Ontario at the expense of provinces like Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland (yes, wealthy Newfoundland with its 15% unemployment rate)

And, as Canadians, and their government of central idiots has shown, what is really important is to kowtow and pay homage only to your tribe.

That being BC only for Comrade Horgan and many BCites, and Ontario and Quebec , for the Liberal virtue feminists.

Garth, you write far too much on tribalism at the national level as is exhibited by Trump. The real danger is tribalism at the political and cultural, and individual level.

Watch the tribal left in the US call for violence against men and women they disagree with. See them call for the physical and sexual assault of their children. Tribalism at its best.

The Global warming tribalists, the left wing media tribalists, the identity politics that seeks to break society down into its tribes of gays, blacks, transgendered, indigenous, left, right, eyi eyi o.

That is the real concern.

Listen to Jordan Peterson on this. He has nailed this issue perfectly.

But tribalism is hard to fight against.
It’s hard to be a Canadian tribalist when your government does not support Canada or Canadians.

It’s hard to support other Canadian regions when the regions don’t really give a flying F about your region, other than to suck them dry through equalization.

So I’m just going to become a tribalist as well.

Alberta all the way.

Whatever is good for Alberta I will support.
Whatever is good or bad for he rest of Canada, I’m really ambivalent about.

If Trump helps build Keystone and it is good for Alberta, hey I will love Trump.

If Trump kills thousands of jobs in the east, well it sucks to be you.

The global warming tribalists will be happy too, given all of the C02 that will be reduced when no autos are produced in Ontario.

See how tribalism works?

As good Liberal Keith Davey said in 1980 – ‘Screw the West. We’ll take the rest’

It’s pretty much the same today, and frankly the Liberals can have the rest.

It took 20 years, after T1 and his band of Liberal bandits, for Alberta to feel that it had a stake in the country. (Well other than Alberta’s role in perpertually contributing to economic basket case provinces)

And here we are again, another Trudeau leading this once-great nation into economic oblivion.
And supporting the breakdown of Canada into a multitude of tribal interests”
——————————–
Powerful, honest comment.

Yes, of course it sounds selfish, but in a ever more divisive (by plan) world, you gotta look after your own, first. This is exactly what Trump said he was going to do, regardless of how missguided his path. Should anyone be surprised?

Dr. Jordan Peterson is brilliant, love to see him debate
Trudeau, would be a metaphorical bloodbath.

We can’t get rid of the Horgan NDP fast enough.

#171 Tony on 06.28.18 at 10:22 am

If Poloz doesn’t raise rates July 11th Trump will look at this as a sign of bad faith (lower dollar gives Canada a trade advantage) and slap Canada with every tariff imaginable. I hope the Bank of Canada at least has the brains to realize this.

#172 James on 06.28.18 at 10:22 am

#120 Smoking Man on 06.27.18 at 11:07 pm

Anyone who has cold called on thousands of people in sales, or read trumps book art of the deal knows exactly what he’s up too.
Those who have not, those that don’t know how to catch or hunt a meal will probably dislike him.. Govt workers for example they are feed by hunters, naturally they hate him.
___________________________________________
Hey knucklehead you do know that Donald Trump did not write the ‘The Art of the Deal.’ It was ghost written by Tony Schwartz. Donal Trump is barely literate if you haven’t noticed.
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2016/07/25/donald-trumps-ghostwriter-tells-all

#173 Tony on 06.28.18 at 10:25 am

Re: #140 Mini on 06.28.18 at 6:27 am

Powell states he wants to implode all the bubbles. Of course we know the universe will end first before the U.S. stock market bubble implodes so figuratively speaking all bubbles except the stock market bubble.

#174 Tommy Johnson on 06.28.18 at 10:42 am

Hey, I worked as a bartender for 30 years now and I am still working at the same place making pretty good money. It is about $1,200 a week gross.

I work 6 days a week and take home $900 a week net after income taxes, C.P.P, E.I. etc. My shift adds up to 60 hours a week.

We do sell alot of booze and parties are what packs this place 12 hours a day.

I have always made sure I save every month. This is why I managed to save up a $750,000 RRSP and $65,000 TFSA.

If I took all the income taxes I paid I would of had another $1 million easy now.

#175 The Alien Guy on 06.28.18 at 10:44 am

#168 Smoking Man: – Once Bill C-21 gets approved by the Senate, and signed into Law you will have more to worry about than FB crap. You could loose everything, and if shared with the USA might even get arrested, and parked into a FEMA camp because your another illegal. Could it be The Bell Tolls for thee?

#176 James on 06.28.18 at 10:50 am

Just returned last night from a meeting with customers in the good old USA. They are all asking how can we circumvent this trade tariff situation? I said we really can not. They were getting very creative in their discussions about circumventing it to the point of being illegal. Businesses in the US and their owners are smart, they want to do one thing and one thing only. Make money! Right now where any impact on their bottom line is going to occur it is money out of their pocket. One of my customers has become so infuriated that he told me he has called his senator and congressman to complain. The one congressman did call him back and off the record said we don’t know what to do with the situation, where as the congressman began to say it was all due to the democrats and they caused this by letting to much free trade happen so we had to do something. My customer said no it that’s bullshit! It has been a partisan issue over the last 25 years and your leader did this with the stroke of a pen without thinking of the consequences. He relented and agreed it was Trumps doing and they are trying to work something out. He said to my customer be patient? I asked my customer how do you contact your Representative and this how it works. So if you want to complain call congressional offices directly or through the switchboard. If you do not have the direct number, you can reach US representatives by calling 202-225-3121, and US senators by calling 202-224-3121. Ask the operator to connect you to the individual office.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2018/06/26/limit-trump-tariffs-businesses-tell-congress/732481002/

#177 Shawn Allen on 06.28.18 at 10:56 am

Spend it In Canada?

#111 Doug in London points out:

“Last but not least, there’s plenty to see right here at home in Canada. Anyone here planning to drive that new road to Tuktoyaktuk, NT this year?

************************************
New Slogan for Tourism…

“The Canadian Dollar, Don’t leave home WITH it.”

Apologies to the American Express Card

#178 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.28.18 at 10:57 am

#157 Big Kahuna on 06.28.18 at 9:05 am
Anyone can look at the trade stats-compared to the USA, Germany and France combined hardly buy anything from Canada-so what does Trudeau do? Make a huge splash at the G7 kissing up to Merkel and Macron and disrespecting Trump. Trudeau appears to be focused on climbing up the globalist heirarchy at any cost and if the cost is sacrificing Canada so be it.
————
Typical post by a person who views the world only in economic terms.
There’s more to life than counting trade numbers.
Standing together against a bully is a timeless virtue.

#179 James on 06.28.18 at 10:57 am

#168 Smoking Man on 06.28.18 at 10:06 am

Attention Deplorables
Facebook is getting ready to censor your posts in next years election if you are critical of T2.
Put your political content in images. Their algos can’t read them. Lets make Canada a free speech zone again.
____________________________________________
Again I have to ask why do you care about Canada and the implications of free speech you turncoat?
Your a wannabe American now! Now go wrap old glory around your old man body.
https://www.reddit.com/r/photoshopbattles/comments/3xxp4n/psbattle_usa_presidential_candidate_donald_trump/

#180 Wrk.dover on 06.28.18 at 11:23 am

Maybe if the MacKenzie bros would tell T-rump to “take off aye?”, this could stop.

What else we got Hosers?

#181 Ace Goodheart on 06.28.18 at 11:35 am

RE: #160 Kick out the jams on 06.28.18 at 9:21 am

How does one actually buy US $ denominated assets? Any suggestions on this?

I buy the SP 500 through this: https://ycharts.com/companies/VFV.TO

There are lots more like this. You can buy indexes all over the world using this method, in Canadian dollars.

#182 Ponnaps on 06.28.18 at 11:48 am

Isnt NAFTA also a protectionist scheme?

So in essence US is just moving from one protectionist scheme to another. One that was disadvantageous to the rest of the world to one thats disadvantageous to 2 countries..

Canada has been lulled into complacency by economic and military protectionism(among other types of course) … explains the disproportionate focus the government seems have on frivolous policy matters.. hope all of these events serve as a wake up call.. time to pull up Mr socks..

#183 Smoking Man on 06.28.18 at 11:48 am

Harper goes to Washington and the Canadian dollar gains a cent.

#184 IHCTD9 on 06.28.18 at 11:59 am

#162 Ace Goodheart on 06.27.18 at 5:16 pm
RE: #147 IHCTD9 on 06.27.18 at 1:19 pm

______________

Don’t Pols, Dutch, Danes, Swedes, Finns, Italians, Brits, Irish, and all kinds of Slav’s etc… immigrate to Canada?

I hope I can live long enough to see a day where this simplistic reasoning has been permanently jettisoned for more rational and intellectually sound assertions.

__

I have not heard a lot of complaints about Irish or British or Polish immigration.
______

Fair enough, just don’t hang your hat on that line of thought too quick. You’ll note that the GTA has some of the largest ethic enclaves in the World…

Rather than getting all PC about it – I prefer to just accept human nature for what it is – folks like to be around other folks that are mostly like them.

A new Chinese immigrant may head to BC, a South Asian to Brampton etc. I don’t fault the Indian families for making a beeline to Brampton, and I don’t fault the 4th Gen Canadians also living in Brampton for bailing out after a certain point.

Race has nothing to do with it. Birds of a feather. Comfort, familiarity, security. It is what it is. Unfamiliarity is unpleasant, differences are awkward, adapting to change is hard. The forces that create an enclave are the exact same forces that create “White Flight”. White Flight is just an enclave moving to another location. Tossing around random accusations of racism as an explanation means you will gain zero wisdom and understanding on the topic.

It’s not some kind of horror show that folks display this tendency either – and ALL of History displays it. Differences in Religion and Nationality were equally effective in dividing Westerners into enclaves well before the 3rd world moved in.

There are also many examples where different races flock together under a transcending common priority – like Faith. That’s because Spirituality trumps Race, Culture, and Language. So we see those that share a common faith will group together even if they are very different in other areas.

Modern Day Racism is 99% BS if anyone wants to think about it’s actual roots of it for more than 5 seconds. Not everyone is going to like everyone else. Trying to explain this fundamental truth via skin colour is a pastime for idiots.

#185 Love Guru’s Dad on 06.28.18 at 12:35 pm

#152 Ezzy on 06.28.18 at 8:11 am
What was it that was occurring at a large scale shortly before Rome fell? At least, the western half of the empire.

Oh yeah! Decadence.

Also, weed = Soma (Brave New World). Look it up. It’s not a conspiracy, it’s a self fulfilling prophecy
—————
Let’s consider another possibility. I’m into music. It can be a great medium to inspire awareness. And “everything is rhythm”. Look it up on you tube. Note the happiness. Listen to Reggae, pay attention to the words, learn a little about its roots, Rastafari, Nyabinghi. How did freed slaves and their offspring, who had nothing, from a small island create a genre of music that led to the Album of the Century according to, I think, Time or Life magazine? One Love.

Did “Weed” help them get there?

#186 James on 06.28.18 at 12:46 pm

House rejects Republican immigration bill, ignoring Trump saying he is a ridicules racist senile old man. The Republican-led House resoundingly rejected a far-ranging immigration bill on Wednesday despite an eleventh-hour endorsement by President Donald Trump, as the gulf between the GOP’s moderate and conservative wings proved too deep for leaders to avert an election-year display of division. The Republicans have finally realized their leader is taking them on a one way trip to hell.

#187 Dan B on 06.28.18 at 12:49 pm

Poloz signaling uncertainly points to a lack of confidence. Perception in systemic weakness leads to a lower $CDN and the corresponding outflow of capital. This is a serious matter and we will be extraordinarily lucky if we can avoid a recession. Invest accordingly.

#188 Stan Brooks on 06.28.18 at 12:51 pm


It’s official when they say so. – Garth

I just did.

#189 Ezzy on 06.28.18 at 12:54 pm

#158 Soma

Thing is, weed is the catalyst only because it’s the most accessible. It could’ve easily been something else. It’s not just weed though. There are tens of millions in North America that use far more interesting drugs. Plus, there’s still alcohol. I don’t blame people though, with the general depression and loneliness that is so prevalent in our society escapism is the way to go, for most.

#190 Balmuto on 06.28.18 at 12:56 pm

Forget about Trump’s tweets, rising oil prices are wind in the sails of the CAD:

https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/usdcad-drops-as-oil-prices-jump-and-the-market-has-a-re-think-on-poloz-20180628

#191 conan on 06.28.18 at 12:59 pm

If you were in his position and holding all the cards, would you not use this to your country’s advantage in the way you saw fit ? -New Era

His strategy is not sound. More then a coin toss he causes some States to leave the Union. They might even join Canada, in order to get the instant NATO benefit, and avoid a pointless Civil War.

#192 IHCTD9 on 06.28.18 at 12:59 pm

“On Canada Day our country will retaliate against the US with tariffs on billions of dollars’ worth of American goods. That means you will pay more to buy stuff, without earning any more or having your tax load reduced. No benefit. Just more cost”

______

Yep – more jobs gone here. Hope not to many dogs make their living buying, selling, and working with stainless steel flat rolled products. Our braindead government is slapping tariffs on products we don’t even produce.

Just more cost, then less work, then less jobs.

Work at the IHCTD9 bunker complex may have to be accelerated.

#193 Yuri Kogan on 06.28.18 at 1:17 pm

May be, our Mr. Socks should stop being stupid and lift Canadian tariffs on milk and other things, making real free trade.

#194 Dan on 06.28.18 at 1:20 pm

Well we know that Canada is up north but we never go there

#195 Canadian Eh on 06.28.18 at 1:29 pm

Thanks to Donald Trump’s baffling decision to plunge us into a trade war, Canada Day this year will almost certainly feature a higher-than-average rate of passive-aggressive America-bashing. The United States remains our closest friend and ally, and continues to supply us with all our non-Drake entertainment. Nevertheless Trump appears to tell us help helped during WW1 and WW2. He should really read up on history, real history not the shit that he makes up in his mind. We fought Nazis earlier! America First my ass! The awesome might and manpower of the United States was instrumental in liberating Western Europe from Nazi domination and shielding it from Soviet conquest. Nevertheless, Canada can take pride that we were killing Nazis while Charles Lindbergh was still hosting isolationist “America First” rallies. The United States not only entered the Second World War late, but retained financial ties with Nazi Germany well into 1941. Even as Hitler steamrolled Europe and laid siege to Great Britain, Germany was getting its movies from Hollywood and building Wehrmacht trucks in Ford Motor Company factories. Frustrated by their country’s neutrality, thousands of Americans would cross the border to join the Canadian military. The RCAF alone recruited around 9,000 Americans before the attack on Pearl Harbor brought the United States into the war. George H.W. Bush, in fact, was seriously considering strapping on a maple leaf to fight the Nazis before Pearl Harbor intervened.

#196 Blacksheep on 06.28.18 at 1:35 pm

Smelly one # 154,

“Its only happy happy thoughts and “lets not talk about price declines.”
Newsflash Ostrich head
House prices are DROPPING.
Housing sales are TANKING.
The ponzi flipper shell game and the offshore money is over.
The NDP are issuing daily reports on the corruption that drove us to this point.
And no amount of whining on your part will change that.
If you bought in the last two years you’re going to lose.”
————————-
Show me where I whined about house prices dropping and you will never read my name here again.

I bought (stole it actually, divorce sale, days after Xmas) 4.5 years ago. The hoods getting redeveloped, so ya I’m good (but mostly lucky) and have no plans to sell, regardless of the level of RE correction.
————————
“If you want prices to continue to go up so that you can benefit you’re either a realtor or( at the risk of repeating myself) a greedy prick that doesnt care about the vast majority of people that cant afford to buy anything.”
————————————
“greedy prick” + “vast majority”

I your going to spit venom, at least get your facts straight first as approximately:

30% of the population, does not own, Canadian Real Estate. (a minority)

70% of the population, does own, Canadian Real Estate. (a majority)

Seems the numbers, are on my side….
————————————
“Its all about you. I get it.”
————————————
It’s very kind of you, to promote the idea of a harsh RE correction, even when it could mean severe financial sacrifice on your part, all for the good of others.

I, am not so socialistic and do not apologize for my stance.

I’ve owned a business for the past 27 years. Many times have had to sacrifice to keep employees / things afloat. No one bailed my ass out ever, including a banker.

At this point, I am more concerned with my only daughters future and my ability to give her a half decent inheritance. If you, or anyone thinks that’s wrong, I really don’t give a shit.

#197 Reasonfirst on 06.28.18 at 1:44 pm

Rome burns…one down.

#198 plonk on 06.28.18 at 2:05 pm

“What part of don’t ever write me again can you not get through your thick head?

Write me again and I will no longer post on Greaterfool.”

Hey! You promised! STOP!

#199 When Will They Raise Rates? on 06.28.18 at 2:16 pm

#148 Shawn on 06.28.18 at 7:53 am
Since the S&P500 peak in late Jan 2018, US small caps are up ~2%. Emerging markets are down ~25%.
—————

Presumably because traders believe (perhaps mistakenly) that the non-multinationals won’t get hurt by tariffs… Explains why the Russell 2000 is up.

#200 kommykim on 06.28.18 at 2:25 pm

RE: #160 Kick out the jams on 06.28.18 at 9:21 am
How does one actually buy US $ denominated assets? Any suggestions on this?

=========================

An ETF like VUN trades on the TSX but is unhedged and contains a large number (3559) of US stocks. ie: So if the US market was flat but the Canadian dollar fell against the US Dollar, VUN would rise in value.

#201 Shawn Allen on 06.28.18 at 2:32 pm

Can Rates Rise?

Many argue interest rates won’t and can’t rise because the economy and certain borrowers include the government can’t handle it.

But don’t the lenders get a vote? Can the bank of Canada prevent interest rates from rising especially if lenders fear recession and therefore more default risk? Or lenders see better opportunities to put their money to work.

I am always skeptical when people argue or imply that the laws of supply and demand don’t apply.

#202 Fiendish Thingy on 06.28.18 at 2:34 pm

Garth,
Apparently Poloz made some comments after you posted today’s blog, because the odds of a BOC rate hike July 11 jumped to over 70%, up from 50% yesterday…

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/odds-of-july-rate-hike-rise-as-bank-of-canada-decision-looms-1.1098861

#203 NoName on 06.28.18 at 2:37 pm

#165 IHCTD9 on 06.28.18 at 9:37 am
#157 NoName on 06.27.18 at 3:38 pm
#151 IHCTD9 on 06.27.18 at 1:50 pm
Next step is getting the message across in a passive manner that they should not be dating anyone that does not have similar ambitions, earning potential, and demonstrated financial knowledge as them.
Horror stories everyone with kids not yet married should read:
https://talkaboutmarriage.com/financial-problems-marriage/
—-
My new book just came in, first section deals with meariage and devorce topic.
section 1, chapter 5.
https://imgur.com/a/29qikM0
_____
I look back to when I first started seeing my eventual Wife, I was only 18 years old! I was thinking about what a babe she was – never a single thought given to financial compatibility!
I got LUCKY. Who would have guessed just how bad it would become in Divorce Court for the bread winner of the couple near 30 years later. The stories on that forum – especially about divorce/infidelity – are terrifying.
It won’t be easy, but my boys need to have a good grasp of the risks involved in divorce these days, and understand just how carefully they need to pick their mate.
I don’t know if the kind of character that keeps a couple together through thick and thin even exists out there anymore. Everyone’s a snowflake.
Hence, damage control needs to start even before marriage these days. Financial compatibility is definitely under rated.

Funny no one, (ok very few), think money early in relationship, I remember taking that course in church to be married I always wondered why 3rd question was state you income…

That dude from radio, from who SM (yes you did, and both times you did it same day) liked to borrow a one-liners from, says; your wife is you biggest investment, but unfortunately very few are able to time market, plus when volatility comes in many will sell on lowest point…

Only thing what I can speak is for my self and my experience, when I met my wifi she was live in nanny for some rich MFs cousins. Comparing her to other girls I dated prior to her, she made less money, she was not as hot (not that is important, but we will get to that later) and what would deter most “man” majority of her left over income she was sending back home to support her very sick brother. Basically she was holding a sign stay away from me.

On another hand I was bit younger, much better looking, making good money at the time.

Fast forward to now things are opposite, she is beautiful mother, hot wife who cooks, cleans and don’t complain (as much as she should,) with secret account that she uses to bail us out when we needed bailout.

We both got very lucky.

Similar joke was posted here some time ago, and its so true…

There was a man who had 3 girlfriends, but he did not know which one to marry. So he decided to give each 1 $5000 and see how each of them spent it.

1st went out and got a total makeover with the money. She got new clothes, a new hairdo, manicure, pedicure, the works, and tells the man, “I spent the money so I could look pretty for you because I love you so much.”

2nd one went out and bought new golf clubs, a CD player, a television, and a stereo and gave them to the man. She said, “I bought these gifts for you with the money because I love you so much.”

3rd one takes the $5000 and invests it in the stock market, doubles her investment, returns the $5000 to the man and reinvests the rest. She says, “I am investing the rest of the money for our future because I love you so much.”

The man thought hard about how each of the women spent the money. Finally, being a man he decided to marry the one with the biggest ****.

#204 IHCTD9 on 06.28.18 at 2:43 pm

#173 Tommy Johnson on 06.28.18 at 10:42 am
Hey, I worked as a bartender for 30 years now and I am still working at the same place making pretty good money. It is about $1,200 a week gross.

I work 6 days a week and take home $900 a week net after income taxes, C.P.P, E.I. etc. My shift adds up to 60 hours a week.

We do sell alot of booze and parties are what packs this place 12 hours a day.

I have always made sure I save every month. This is why I managed to save up a $750,000 RRSP and $65,000 TFSA.

If I took all the income taxes I paid I would of had another $1 million easy now.
_________________________________

Excellent job!

#205 conan on 06.28.18 at 2:58 pm

Lol @ Benedict Harper.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/harper-blindsides-trudeau-pmo-plans-visit-to-white-house-1.3992079

If it was not so sad, it would be funny.

#206 tarrifsonUSAcars-whocares on 06.28.18 at 3:03 pm

As long as decent auto brands like BMW, Mercedes, Lexus, Volvo, Toyota, Nissan etc and of coarse: Ferrari, Porsche, Lambo don’t go up in price, who cares about Trumps auto tarrifs for CA buyers? Let Ford, GM, Chevy dealers struggle with a 25% price increase. We will just be negatively reinforced against buying crap cars from the south with horrible maintenance and reliability issues.

#207 jess on 06.28.18 at 3:14 pm

Wealthy Canadians with hidden offshore accounts are evading up to $3 billion in tax every year, according to the first ever estimate of the international tax gap by the Canada Revenue Agency, obtained by the Star.

In a report to be made public Thursday, the government estimates Canadian individuals are hiding between $75.9 billion and $240.5 billion in offshore tax havens and elsewhere, and not paying tax on it.

ttps://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2018/06/28/canadians-with-offshore-holdings-evade-up-to-3-billion-in-tax-per-year.html

============
US steel users challenge Trump’s authority to impose tariffs in court

A group representing users of imported steel filed Wednesday the first known legal challenge to steel tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump earlier this year.
With the lawsuit, taken to the US Court of International Trade in New York by the American Institute for International Steel (AISS) and two of its member companies, the plaintiffs are trying to overturn the decades-old trade law that allowed Trump to penalize imports of aluminum and steel.
The group argues Trump’s move was unconstitutional, adding that it rests on an additional flaw that lets Congress delegate trade powers to US presidents.

“Unlike most cases brought against actions of the Trump administration, it is Congress — through its delegation of unfettered discretion to the President in this statute — and not the President that is the violator of the Constitution,” Alan Morrison, lead counsel for the plaintiffs, said in a statement. “The President simply took advantage of the opportunity to impose his views on international trade on the American people, with nothing in the law to stop him.”
The suit comes as Republican senators consider options to limit Trump’s unilateral authority to impose tariffs on national-security grounds. Among the potential measures, the legislators may try to pursue legislation on the 232 statute, a 1960s trade law that gives the president broad powers to bypass Congress in his decision.

=========

“foxconnisin”

…”The Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources granted the company’s request to divert Lake Michigan water for its use—a move that’s leaving nearby states none too happy. Of the 7 million gallons that will flow to the factory daily, around 2.7 million will be lost mainly through evaporation, and the rest, according to the company, will be treated and then returned to the lake. Typically, factories that want to divert water from Lake Michigan must get approval from all eight states that surround the Great Lakes. Because Foxconn’s facility, which hasn’t been built yet, will be located just outside the boundaries of the Great Lakes Basin, it was able to apply for its water usage directly with the city of Racine.

Too Many Eggs in a Risky High-Tech Basket”

Good Jobs First Statement on Foxconn Groundbreaking in Southeast Wisconsin

Washington, DC—Good Jobs First executive director Greg LeRoy made the following statement concerning today’s groundbreaking ceremony in Racine County, Wisconsin for the Foxconn Technology Group’s liquid crystal display factory.

“At $4.79 billion and counting, the Foxconn megadeal is the third-costliest subsidy package in U.S. history—and 39 times bigger than any prior deal in Wisconsin. It’s too many eggs in a risky high-tech basket.

“The state admits it will take 25 years to break even on its own $3 billion part of that. Betting that a high-tech product will even be here a quarter-century from now is like betting on modems or beepers or MP3 players.

https://www.goodjobsfirst.org/news/releases/good-jobs-first-statement-foxconn-groundbreaking-southeast-wisconsin

#208 Ford on 06.28.18 at 3:31 pm

Ford was making a little speech today, and beside him was Lady Freeloader. Ford was spewing his agenda and the Lady’s head was moving up and down on his every word indicating yes. This was so funny and very artificial. The first thing on his agenda is to dismantle the cap and trade. Most of the corporate accounts registered in Ontario can no longer trade their account positions involving California and Quebec; perhaps others, amounting to $billions spread out like a spider web.

#209 jess on 06.28.18 at 3:33 pm

foxConnsin –

The cost per job will be far higher if Foxconn invests heavily in automation …If Foxconn creates a factory that uses state-of-the-art robots and only creates 3,000 new jobs, while still
spending at least $9 billion for capital costs at the new facilities, the cost per job could exceed an average
of $587,000 per year, but the total cost of the new credits would be significantly lower – about $1.76 billion over 15 years, rather than $2.85 billion. (see
http://www.wisconsinbudgetproject.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/Foxconn-payments-for-jobs.pdf

#210 Big Kahuna on 06.28.18 at 3:55 pm

Every day that goes by Harper looks better and better-I don’t think we Canadians appreciated how nice it was to have an adult in the Prime Minister job.

#211 Aliens united on 06.28.18 at 4:13 pm

#174 The Alien Guy on 06.28.18 at 10:44 am
#168 Smoking Man: – Once Bill C-21 gets approved by the Senate, and signed into Law you will have more to worry about than FB crap. You could loose everything, and if shared with the USA might even get arrested, and parked into a FEMA camp because your another illegal. Could it be The Bell Tolls for thee?
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#102 ww1 on 05.15.17 at 10:59 pm
#99 acdel on 05.15.17 at 10:44 pm
#82 Smoking Man
What is your occupation/location under LinkedIn?
As you know; this is on how one connects under this system.
Take your pick :
jim.stojsin on linkedin
or
jim.stojsin on facebook
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#177 Penny Henny on 01.06.17 at 3:17 pm
Peak for the bungee? Ha ha. You will never leave the comfort and safety of UFO central. Just had to sign in and have a look. Your in for a whacking in 2018, sell now.
https://www.lilypad.ca/etobicoke/57-james-street
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57 James Street. Hmmmm.
Ford ranger pick up out front, gazebo in the yard and a boat on the side driveway.
https://www.google.ca/maps/@43.5905944,-79.5397571,3a,75y,166.43h,76.07t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1svf_AL2wu-YsoZGkP2Yr7_Q!2e0!7i13312!8i6656!6m1!1e1

Look out for teachers Smokie. They’ll burn you at the stake
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Ha there you go. We remember all of your stuff Smoky! Its all posted here and there, everywhere. Smokin Man AKA Jim Stojsin, used to live at 57 James Street, Toronto, Ontario. Silver pick up truck………. We are coming for you with bill C21 and some beer.
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This enactment amends the Customs Act to authorize the Canada Border Services Agency to collect, from prescribed persons and prescribed sources, personal information on all persons who are leaving or have left Canada. It also amends the Act to authorize an officer, as defined in that Act, to require that goods that are to be exported from Canada are to be reported despite any exemption under that Act. In addition, it amends the Act to provide officers with the power to examine any goods that are to be exported. Finally, it amends the Act to authorize the disclosure of information collected under the Customs Act to an official of the Department of Employment and Social Development for the purposes of administering or enforcing the Old Age Security Act.

#212 Deckard on 06.28.18 at 4:56 pm

“Every day that goes by Harper looks better and better-I don’t think we Canadians appreciated how nice it was to have an adult in the Prime Minister job.”

I agree.

Hard to believe we have a little child running this country.

#213 Toronto Star on 06.28.18 at 5:28 pm

They are going under a pay wall soon. One must subscribe and register to read 5 free stories per month, and so on. We shall see how that rolls because pay for nothing in a free and democratic society on the web, except for my all too expensive internet connection. Oh well just might have to download my free VPN once again.

#214 Josh Schwartz on 06.28.18 at 6:14 pm

IHCTD9

It may seem quite an achievement with $815,000 in 30 years but according to my calculations, it is $225 a week or $975 a month earing 5% a year compounded for 30 years.

This is not even including the RRSP income tax refunds reinvested. So really, if this was done, he really needed a much lower $160 a week or $700 a month would get you to $815,000.

IHCTD9, don’t get me wrong, it is much better than most will ever achieve in their life financially in this debt ridden society. I would say in the top 10% to 15% of all Canadians.

I would say most people are not millionaires or multi-millionaires because they don’t start saving, investing and no discipline to keep it going for years, decades.

The last 30 years most people did not have the foresight to think that cheap money, rock bottom interest rates and stretching out debt, financing was a debt trap and did not think all the lost money they could of have now by not having more debt, refinancing over and over etc.

My cousin skipped on buying a second property 30 years ago. It would of cost him about $1,500 a month but he piled that in his RRSP’s and averaged 8% a year compounded that with all his RRSP tax refunds and now has $2.237 million in his RRSP. He has no debts, retired last year at 54 years old with a total net worth of $4.5 million, house, investments, RRSP, TFSA etc.

The tortoise and the hare, slow and steady wins the race.

#215 Retired Boomer WI Jr on 06.28.18 at 7:26 pm

Howdy all,

I wanted to give a shout out to all the apparent Trump fans on this blog a great big shout out of ‘WTF, are you all crazy?’, and let you know what I think is coming out of Trumps’ mouth (ass, or whatever) both now and in the future, and what it might mean for the rest of the world. Extrapolate what implications that these views or actions may have on the US or Canuck Economy for yourselves.

I really didn’t like the guy from the start, but after he was elected, I figured that I would give the guy a chance before I rendered any real judgement on the man, and I have. Enough time has passed now in order for me to pass judgement, and I DO NOT approve. I am NOT a fan at all of the orange-haired, egomaniacal, obnoxious, loud-mouthed, p*ssy-grabbing, wanna-be King otherwise known as the current President of the United States. I believe that this asshat is a very dangerous man to be entrusted with the powers that he now possesses, and let me tell you why.

Now, for starters I am not against anyone who wants to throw their hat into the ring and making a run for the Presidency from doing so, I only wish that people would have made a better decision than they did. Trump has lied through his teeth to the American people, and continues to hoodwink his most devout followers into thinking and believing that he was and is on the side of the ‘forgotten man’, you know the little guy. When in fact he has NEVER been on the side of the little guy. He has a long and storied history of contractors not being paid for work that they had already performed for him. I’ve read that there were instances that the some of the work performed may have been sloppy or somehow below standards, and that is why they weren’t paid, but I have my doubts about that. I think that the Trump Organization as a whole have much more time and money to fight them in court in order to drain their contractors assets in the hope that their contractors will either give up or accept less money than what was agreed upon in their contract. I personally find that this is much easier to believe than a contractor doing work that their client didn’t like or approve of, and then weren’t given an opportunity to make it right, and therefore to make their client happy. Maybe he then purchased them after they had to file for Chapter 7?

He has created for himself, and by relation, his family, the very same thing he said that Clinton would have done for herself if she had won: A Quid Pro quo. If a person or a country wants some influence over Trump and some decision he will make in the future, all they have to do is stage some large convention or some such thing and host it at one of his many hotels, golf courses, or convention centers around the world, and that money sooner or later will end up right in his pocket. Right now, he has the best of both worlds: He has the power of the Presidency, and can make money for himself and his family because of it.

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act is another example. True, they have enacted the largest corporate tax cuts in US history, and they have also cut taxes for the middle class (temporarily at least). Both are set to sunset in 2025, but there has been talk just within the last few days about putting up another tax bill this fall that will make the corporate taxes permanent. Perhaps they will lower corporate taxes down to the lower bound this time? Who knows.

Trump claims to be smarter than he really is. I am not going to knock on him for using the laws of the US to his business advantage (e.g. bankruptcy law, etc). However, in his current job, a president is only as smart as the people he (or she) surrounds themselves with to advise them on matters that are not really within their purview. Trump feels that he doesn’t need anyone with the type of background or experience where they could potentially advise him on things that he doesn’t know as well as he should, in order to execute policies that will benefit the vast majority of Americans, rather than pandering to his chosen few (e.g. rich people). After all, isn’t he supposed to be President of the whole damn country? the little people he supposedly cares about is a joke, but he does need their VOTE.

Starting trade wars with Canada, Mexico, China and the EU, flipping off our closest allies around the world, cracking down on both illegal (which I approve of) and LEGAL immigration, and making excuses for not allowing due process to asylum seekers (which is actually US law), is not in the long term what I would call smart. I could certainly think of much different words to use, but smart sure isn’t one of them. Trade wars were rampant in the 1920’s, along with protectionism and an over-inflated stock market. How did that turn out?

Oh, wait…

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#91 For those about to flop…

I know you and my dad were friends on here. What is this Pink Snow project that you talked about on here and how can I find it. Thanks.

Paul
M43WI

#216 Dale Goldsmith on 06.28.18 at 7:37 pm

To Big Kahuna

Don’t forget Jim Flaherty and the TFSA. It is too bad such a great mind ended too early. The TFSA should be $10,000 today but Morneau is not a forward thinker.

I remember the character in Spin City for Deputy Mayor of New York City played by Michael J.Fox was named Mike Flaherty.