Outgunned

“I have read your blog for many years and I have shared many of your ideas regarding buying a home vs. renting and investing with many people,” says James, correctly opening his email with the obligatory suck-up. “Many people see the logic behind renting and investing, but insist that buying a home is the way to go. I subscribe to the rent and invest ideology myself. My wife and I are now in our thirties with three young kids.”

Okay, James, all good. But why are you writing me from Calgary if you’re happy? Dude, nobody corresponds with me because they’re okay…

“Recently my wife switched teams and is horny for buying. Her parents are pushing hard for a home as well and now I am afraid that we may make the leap and purchase a home. What I find frustrating is that I hear your voice is in the back of my head, or at least what I imagine it sounds like… older and full of frustration and talking about truck nuts. haha Your voice, the imagined one, keeps reminding me of ETF’s and consideration of rising interest rates and what that could do to future home values in Calgary and all over Canada (i.e. slow melt).

“What I have decided is that I should let the real Garth speak for him-self, or a least I hope you will as I really want the imagined one to be quiet.I am having some serious “want to purchase housing guilt.”

“Is there something I should be considering in regards to this purchase or not purchase? If we bought would this be something I seriously regret in a year’s time? I know that you must get many of these types of e-mails all the time. Regardless of if you reply, I want you to know that your message about being financially literate and aware of world circumstances is appreciated.”

A classic note. Mars and Venus. He wants a liquid, diversified, balanced portfolio to provide financial security going forward, thereby relieving some of the pressure every man feels to work until he drops. Financial stress, never, ever ends. Having a pile of money sure helps, though. She, on the other hand, sees it clearly. Security = a nest. An owned home stabilizes things, provides an emotional embrace of permanence, creating foreverness. Norman Rockwell. Mr. Rogers. The goal of life. A home. Worth throwing everything at to achieve. Especially when your Mom says it’s the right thing to do.

Well, when Mars and Venus clash, it’s usually head against heart, anxiety warring with desire with (almost always) emotion wins. So, James, we both know you’re pooched. It’s four against one (plus her parents). Roll over, buddy. You’re outgunned.

Having said that, the best course of action is to be smart about what comes next. First, know the market. Calgary is actually a reasonably good place to purchase now because so many sellers are desperate, lonely for buyers and often willing to deal.

Having said this, Cowtown has more misery ahead. Sales this month are down 13% and listings are up 32%. It’s a pattern that’s been repeated over and over – a continuous drip-drip erosion of strength and confidence. Median prices are lower again (by 5% in June) and the number of days it takes to sell a home has increased by a fifth from last year. Condos downtown have been decimated in market value, and current projects will be years in selling out. There is only downward momentum in the residential market. When it comes to commercial real estate – a harbinger of employment opportunities – no truck nuts here, either. The office vacancy rate swelled to 23% in the latest quarter, up from 20% and the worst since at least 2008.

But that doesn’t tell the complete story. There are whole empty floors in key downtown towers that are not even counted in the vacancy rate since the leases are still being paid by corporations that decided it’s cheaper to fork over the rent – even if nobody works there. Some people estimate 40% of the core’s overall space is empty. It’s a fact borne out by light rush hour traffic and lots of empty parking spots at 8 am.

And oil? Even a trip from $27 a pop to almost $70 has not saved the city. Now with OPEC turning on the taps again and big troubles in the oil sands (the lights went out a few days ago), volatility is in the air. Meanwhile the province which was once the bastion of low taxes and free enterprise has turned into just another centrist-lefty place where governments spend vastly more than they make, tax punitively and squander economic advantage. Too bad. Perhaps a mistake to be corrected before long.

Then, James, you have rising mortgage rates to consider. Plus the stress test. The utter unpredictability and tribalism of Donald Trump. The bottom line: any house you buy will probably decline in value, especially when you factor in closing costs.

Will you regret it in a year’s time?

If your goal was to make money, yes. Of course. If you want to stay married, no. Of course.

Just buy a home you can afford. Remember my rule of 90. Be modest, borrow small. Live below your means. Don’t gut your investment portfolio. Do not obsess about paying off the mortgage. And refuse to take any house money from your MIL. Kiss of death.

We’re pulling for you.

169 comments ↓

#1 Doug in London on 06.26.18 at 3:55 pm

Now I know why some men marry other men.

#2 Millennial905er on 06.26.18 at 3:55 pm

How about my neck o the woods? 905? Houses sitting at a milkion…. Hold out and vultch later?

#3 Binary switch on 06.26.18 at 3:57 pm

#1 Doug in London on 06.26.18 at 3:55 pm

Now I know why some men marry other men.

Well …
“Recently my wife switched teams

#4 Karl on 06.26.18 at 4:03 pm

S E C O N D!

#5 Fool on 06.26.18 at 4:03 pm

She wants you to buy a house so that she and the kids keep it if you guys get divorced. If you stay liquid, she only gets half of that and she has to find someone to manage the investments for her (what a PITA that would be).

If you love your wife, just buy her a house.

#6 Phil on 06.26.18 at 4:19 pm

Thanks Garth for keeping your shill pie hole shut about politics for once and good to get your thoughts on the Calgary RE market! You’ve earned yourself a treat.

#7 Karl on 06.26.18 at 4:23 pm

Ok, I get it. No more “Hot” in front.

Question, and forgive my ignorance, what does “MIL” stand for?

#8 Dolce Vita on 06.26.18 at 4:24 pm

Tell wifey that MIL has to buy the house.

Rent it off her.

Wife gets a house. You get to keep your investment portfolio. MIL gets a steady income stream.

Everyone happy.

Well, except that MIL now has a say in what happens to the house but lucky you, now has to pay for that privilege.

#9 Dolce Vita on 06.26.18 at 4:37 pm

PS:

Take out life insurance on the MIL >> than the mortgage value and dutifully pay the premiums.

If you get kicked out of the home soon after MIL’s meeting with St. Peter, you can buy your own home.

If the life insurance actuaries are correct on average, the premiums will be << less than the insurance policy pay out.

A few years of pain for many years of gain [pre and post St. Peter meeting].

#10 Mike in Toronto on 06.26.18 at 4:44 pm

Hey, don’t forget all the homeowners wanting you to buy so as to make them feel superior.

‘Johnny bought late, we told him! now he’s in a semi on the other side of town’

…meanwhile the local rush for the GO train is well underway…

#11 Dan on 06.26.18 at 4:44 pm

Do not let emotions dictate your financial decisions.

best case: rent a new place and just tell everyone you bought it, so they get off your back. Also, best strategy is to limit contact with in-laws entirely.

#12 Dead Cat Bounce on 06.26.18 at 4:47 pm

Blah Blah Blah Happy wife… Happy life…

James a house won’t make her happy

M55BC

#13 He Needs To Resign on 06.26.18 at 4:52 pm

Something exploded today, but won’t spoil the party, so carry on.

#14 Bobs ur uncle on 06.26.18 at 4:53 pm

Renting is great until the owners sell and you get kicked out. Which is happening to me for the third time in 7 years. And the available rental stock now costs ~50% more than what I was paying. Having a dog is not helping. Still not thrilled at the idea of buying, but hard to avoid the nesting hormones when that keeps happening. The math now points to buying as the logical step, but will sit tight for a few months to see whether b-20 is all it’s cracked up to be. Thankfully I do have a halfway decent portfolio to fall back on, so it’s not all bad.

#15 Dolce Vita on 06.26.18 at 4:55 pm

#6 Phil

“Thanks Garth for keeping your shill pie hole shut about politics”

It’s his Blog.

He charges nobody to, nor makes anyone, read it.

He has no advertising on his Blog.

Thus, he gets to say what he wants.

#16 crossbordershopper on 06.26.18 at 4:59 pm

a wife or drywall, what a choice.

#17 Renter's Revenge! on 06.26.18 at 5:08 pm

#238 IHCTD9 on 06.26.18 at 4:17 pm
Sometimes, I can’t help but wonder if the globe is careening off towards some big SHTF reset after which things will return to “normal”.

Seriously, start adding up the BS going on in the world. You won’t even be able to update it on pace with all the new garbage hitting the headlines.

Sometime, somewhere, someone is going to snap and set off a chain of events that no one can stop. Borders will be unable to defend.

===================================

Maybe there isn’t an actual increase in BS going on in the world, maybe it’s just that we’re more aware of it because of an increase in the reporting of BS. With the increasing reach of communication technology, there’s always something bad happening somewhere in the world that can be reported, whereas in the past, you may have only heard local news on a daily basis, and BS usually doesn’t happen on a daily basis locally.

On the other hand, big SHTF resets have happened in the past, so it’s not like they’re out of the question.

How many times have a million or more people died from something in the past? You can count them on these Wikipedia pages (warning: they’re depressing):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_and_anthropogenic_disasters_by_death_toll
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_epidemics

So basically, don’t worry about bad stuff happening. It’s going to happen whether you worry about it or not.

#18 Shawn Allen on 06.26.18 at 5:13 pm

Edmonton…

Just from driving around Edmonton the place seems to be almost booming.

I could give details but suffice to say that everywhere I drive I am passing new construction of commercial space as well as tons of recently completed buildings.

Can it all be left over inertia and buildings committed to before oil dropped in 2014? I doubt it.

While fighting crowds in restaurants and shopping malls, the joke is “gee I hope this recession ends soon”!

Obviously some people were very hard hit by job loss (unemployment up from about 4% to about 7%) but that means for literally 97% of the workforce nothing has changed.

Have home prices declined? I don’t follow that.

#19 Stan Brooks on 06.26.18 at 5:13 pm

Nesting is normal human instinct.

So the elite – banks, politicians decides to capitalize on it through fraud and ponzi schemes destroying the currency and the pensioners.

Converting basic human need into commodity and ‘investment’ of course for the benefits of the banks.

No other country has and ever had such enormous credit bubble, courtesy of the idiots at BoC and CHMC.

The sheeple has to realize it is owned, herded and about to be culled.

#20 crdt on 06.26.18 at 5:15 pm

“The utter unpredictability and tribalism of Donald Trump.”

Trump is simply a figure head of a much larger movement, as in the movement that elected him. It is great to focus on a particular personality/person, but if the appetite was not there for such a phenomenon it would simply be amongst the millions of other non starters. Just like a summer hit song that is virtually un enjoyable once the vibe has passed. The pendulum has swung the other way, most extreme at the inflection point.

#21 Blacksheep on 06.26.18 at 5:23 pm

Really all this, immigration / trade shit comes down to, two simple questions:

1) Are you willing to accept a lower standard of living for the benefit of complete strangers, even if it means your child’s living standards, will likely be, significantly lower than yours?

Or….

2) Do want to hold on to the current advantage and life quality you enjoy, hopefully ensuring you child’s living standards will be as good, or potentially much better than yours with a little dynastic wealth planning?

I’m honest, so I’ll admit I’m firmly in camp # 2).

I think a lot of Trump supporters may have had some first hand experience with what camp # 1) looks like and are letting him (Trump) do what ever he wants, if it increases their chances of getting back on track, to the former American Dream of camp # 2).

You just lost a lot of credibility. – Garth

#22 BC Foreign Buyer Tax Starts Trial on 06.26.18 at 5:26 pm

A Master’s student is able to afford a house for $600K and a group of lawyers fees?! Something is very fishy.

Most graduate students I know (and I work at a university)… are barely scraping by on scholarships and jobs to finance their education, room and board.

If it were up to me, I would more draconian and completely ban all foreign ownership and give the properties back to the locals. If only 16 years of housing data were not missing…

I hope the BC government will win the case easily. Down vote for Li and her lawyers who are playing the race card!

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/foreign-buyer-tax-housing-vancouver-1.4721597

#23 Reality is stark on 06.26.18 at 5:32 pm

“You can be somebody or you can be somebody’s fool.”
Mr. T.
You buy that home you become somebody’s fool.
You will be left holding the bag.
Don’t let them shame you into stupid choices.
Remember you’ve already made one very big mistake, don’t compound things.

#24 Calgary will not recover for 12 more years based on GDP forecast. on 06.26.18 at 5:34 pm

I think the CEO of Calgary Economic Development might know a thing or two about Calgary.

Negative -75% drop in lease rates.

She says the unskilled, high paying labor force in the oil patch of the past that has been obliterated and will never return as new tech and efficiencies fill the void.

The unoccupied office space in Calgary totals a greater area of downtown Vancouver.

The residential house prices are decent value but I don’t see an immediate recovery as I still here of Albertans abandoning ship and selling at a steep loss right now. Selling right now in Alberta means you have not made any money on your real estate if it was bought in the past 10 years. Zero!

At the end of the day it is all about what you can afford in the long game.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3S-knVFOWl0

#25 Keith on 06.26.18 at 5:37 pm

High property taxes can solve everything. Tom Davidoff.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M1bjKuiplC4&feature=youtu.be

#26 Freebird on 06.26.18 at 5:39 pm

Interestingly, I know many cases where the opposite was/is true and husband/BF is/was the spender incl a house (then a bigger better house). I guess there’s always exceptions. Never did like that book. BTW hope everyone has access to A/C, pool or beach in Ont this weekend! Maybe visit friends in Newfoundland?

#27 If it was me? on 06.26.18 at 5:44 pm

I already just bought in Calgary.

Great houses on sale in any neighborhood and you can pick up some nice stuff in most neighborhoods – 500k.

Go spend a week anywhere in BC and you will realize what a steal this is.

I expect my property to even dip a bit more on price around 5-8%, but it will recover and in my opinion and in the least be stable on the 10-year outlook.

And a % on 500K is a lot less harsh then a % on 1M. It is double. Therefore, I would not recommend buying anything in GTA or BC at present. Unless of course you like loosing big money.

Calgary will be back, and that is not when you decide to buy. When things look really bad and people are fleeing is when you buy IF you can afford it and have job confidence etc.

500k for a nice SFD is peanuts these days. Ask anyone in Vancouver or the GTA.

And interest rates sure don’t seem to be going anywhere. Let’s see if they actually move a measly 0.25 next month. Come on boloz the BoC clown.

#28 WUL on 06.26.18 at 5:44 pm

Garth,

I cannot help but comment. How a hirsute, cowboy boot wearing dude at Bay and King knows more than 60% of my fellow residents of Cowtown know about the Stampede City remains a mystery to me.

Nicely done. Nicely captured.

The Greatest Show on earth opens soon. Don’t forget, the Dream Home Lottery at the annual Stoopede. Dream Home with a Nightmare Commute.

Thx.

#29 Dusty on 06.26.18 at 5:47 pm

Garth, I don’t remember your rule of 90.
Fellow blogers, please explain the rule of 90.
I’m in Vancouver so it might mean you won’t be able to afford to buy until you’re 90? How does that apply to Calgary.

#30 Freebird on 06.26.18 at 5:49 pm

Off topic but I’ve noticed this blog and now very few Cdn corp media sources still supporting free speech by allowing anonymous comments. Others (CBC) are now heavily moderating (censoring?) them. It’s not hard to allow open, even critical public feedback (like here) with a way to publicly flag ones seen as offensive etc, and like Garth, delete them (multiple times) if warranted. I now avoid reading/ supporting media sites who don’t allow open comments, over moderate/control or disable them. It’s a slippery slope in my view. Similar is happening at more universities. I know there’s another side but it’s the argument for it Im not buying. Yet.

#31 Phil on 06.26.18 at 5:55 pm

#15 Dolce Vita

“#6 Phil

“Thanks Garth for keeping your shill pie hole shut about politics”

It’s his Blog.

He charges nobody to, nor makes anyone, read it.

He has no advertising on his Blog.

Thus, he gets to say what he wants.”

Hey Dolce Vita, thanks for the reply. I am going to have to respectfully disagree with you. He may not have advertisements on the website but owning a blog with a very large following is extremely valuable and will garner a lot of interest to groups that want to reach people of our demographic. Which is perhaps one of the reasons why we are seeing guest bloggers. Garth knows he has something special here and is smart enough to nurture it for future considerations/opportunities. So there is definitely something in it for him.

I come here for the entertaining and informational value of Garth’s view on the various real estate markets. His political views are cringe worthy but to his defense he seems to be equally negative amongst all groups. That being said, when you have a large following you do have some responsibility for the things you say and the ideas you shape into people’s minds. Hopefully people on this blog are smart enough to come up with their own thoughts/views/ideas. Just because Garth is a successful dude with a great career (outside of politics) with the inside track on real estate doesn’t mean you should believe all his world views. Thus the sarcastic shill comment.

#32 Big Kahuna on 06.26.18 at 5:57 pm

#21Blacksheep-you can’t see the whole picture-the cheerleaders for massive immigration benefit financially from massive immigration-all the while pretending to be Mother Theresa. Finally many people have woken up to the Scam.

#33 Freebird on 06.26.18 at 5:58 pm

Politics are tied to economies, and investing. Hard to cover one w/o the other.

Fun fact, POTUS has history of hiring illegal immigrants…
https://youtu.be/liolFpV34rM

#34 Jeremy on 06.26.18 at 6:06 pm

Amazing post. Kudos.

#35 Ace Goodheart on 06.26.18 at 6:09 pm

Talked to some folks from the Toronto Beaches recently. They purchased a home there a couple of years back, on the assumption that they better get into a good neighbourhood now, or they would be priced out forever.

They did not look at the median income level of their ‘hood and try to figure out what the other buyers could actually afford. The idea was that house prices would just go up forever.

Well, they didn’t.

Mortgage rates did, though.

These folks want out. They are looking at a diminishing pile of cash at the end of each month. Interesting thing is when you increase the amount of money you are financing, incremental increases in interest rates, which would mean nothing to a smaller pile of borrowed money, get really worrisome when applied to a large pile. These folks owe a million four hundred on a million eight hundred thousand dollar house (that is now only worth about a million four).

Their concern was, they put four hundred K into this house, plus land transfer tax and then did a hundred K of renos, and if they sell it now, they will owe money.

Yeah, that is right. They would have to PAY to get rid of their house. Is that ridiculous or what? Here is my house, and $100,000.00, please take it from me.

Canada is a nutty place indeed.

I met two people up in Barrie last week with a similar problem. Spent $650,000 on a house last year, put $100,000.00 down and financed the rest. They separated and now want to sell the place. Trouble is, their realtor says it is only worth $560,000.00. With real estate commission, they will owe money on the sale.

Again, here is my house, and some cash, please take it from me!

This seems to be happening a lot.

I have met others in similar situations. People are PAYING other people money, to TAKE their houses. I mean, what sort of a looney society do we live in, where that happens?

Just a little while ago, you had to stand in line outside and participate in a blind auction, to buy a house. Now you have to pay someone to take the house from you and rid yourself of the title (and associated mortgage). Are people nuts?

On my side of things, of course the two houses I bought for cash in the crappity crap neighbourhood (that rapidly gentrified when they decided to build a “transit” hub next door, complete with underground LRT and UPX station) are worth about four times what I paid for them currently. I still have both.

But I have problems also. I wanted to spend three weeks up at my third house which is on a lake in Muskoka (also purchased for cash at a fire sale price during the 2009 financial collapse, from some guy who just lost his pension and was heading to financial catastrophe – he still had a mortgage on the cottage and was paying it from his pension earnings).

But how can I do that, when I have to take care of two Toronto houses? Who will water the plants? Cut the grass? Bring the bins out on garbage day and then back in again?

Real estate, is just a problem, followed by more problems. Even if you own it. My Muskoka property needs about two days worth of garden maintenance. Plus a good cleaning. An Airb&b they would do the garden maintenance and clean it before I got there.

Real estate. The only good real estate, is real estate that you DON’T own…..

#36 Dave on 06.26.18 at 6:11 pm

Every weekly call you give the price of Gold…yet on your blog you throw it a side like a piece of garbage?

#37 Who wants to elect a Canadian Leader with balls of steel? on 06.26.18 at 6:12 pm

DELETED

#38 You Suck Justin on 06.26.18 at 6:14 pm

What a weak leader. We are so screwed here.

#39 New World on 06.26.18 at 6:16 pm

#30 Freebird : – The Ministry of Truth has indeed been very busy for the past couple of years. Do not use the search engine called Google, because they have hired thousands of magicians to change and destroy. The MSM uses updates because the powers to be need to delete and change the narrative into a better reality.

#40 John on 06.26.18 at 6:17 pm

PHIL

I like Garth’s politics… maybe you should shut your pie hole? Mes oui?

#41 Guy in Calgary on 06.26.18 at 6:18 pm

There are a lot of places that have been sitting all summer. You should be able to get a place that she likes at a price that allows you to continue to save. Buyers market for sure.

#42 Calgary will Survive on 06.26.18 at 6:19 pm

Calgary will be back.

#43 Victor V on 06.26.18 at 6:23 pm

#29 Dusty on 06.26.18 at 5:47 pm

Garth, I don’t remember your rule of 90.
Fellow blogers, please explain the rule of 90.
I’m in Vancouver so it might mean you won’t be able to afford to buy until you’re 90? How does that apply to Calgary.

=========

Here you go: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2015/03/20/rule-of-90/

#44 the ryguy on 06.26.18 at 6:24 pm

#8 Dolce Vita on 06.26.18 at 4:24 pm
—————————————–

Dude, best comment in a while, hahaha I love it.

#45 S.Bby on 06.26.18 at 6:32 pm

I was picking up the kids from school today and overheard some random mom mentioning to her husband “I talked to my mom about the house for sale over on the next street…” and then they moved out of earshot. But yeah it’s always the wife wanting the house.

#46 MSM-Free Zone on 06.26.18 at 6:33 pm

“…..Meanwhile the province which was once the bastion of low taxes and free enterprise has turned into just another centrist-lefty place where governments spend vastly more than they make, tax punitively and squander economic advantage…..”
________________________________

CORRECTION:

“….Meanwhile the province which was once the bastion of 4 decades of (C)onservative-incompetence-masking royalties and squandered highest per-capita spending (who knew?) in the country has turned into a province which has weathered the most recent and extended oil price slump surprisingly well with a more diversified economy this time around ……”

Sure Alberta is in deficit spending right now. The NDP doesn’t have a monopoly on deficit spending. What province isn’t right now?

Wait until Drug Fraud introduces his first low-taxation/high-spending provincial budget in the near future.

#47 Ace Goodheart on 06.26.18 at 6:34 pm

Trump is done for, BTW.

The guy has been reduced to a rambling lunatic.

He just referred to Kim Jong as “Chairman” of North Korea.

Yeah, that will go over well with the US Military, which has 37,500 members currently serving in South Korea, for the principal purpose of acting against “Chairman Kim” of North Korea, should his royal pain in the ass decide to take a move against the South.

Done, done, done.

One thing you never do, as a sitting US President, is insult the US military.

Trump has done that with his “Chairman Kim” nonsense and associated cancellation of necessary US Military exercises in South Korea this August.

He is done for.

Rambling, stuttering, done for, old buffoon. It is just a matter of time now………

#48 LP on 06.26.18 at 6:36 pm

#7 Karl on 06.26.18 at 4:23 pm
– MIL = mother-in-law

#8 Dolce Vita on 06.26.18 at 4:24 pm
Tell wifey that MIL has to buy the house.
– excellent solution!

#49 Suede on 06.26.18 at 6:38 pm

Let me save you time.

With some expensive free advice.

Most people can’t save anything.

…even with money left over every paycheque.

Having a mortgage obligates you to pay into something that’s building you equity.

At least this way you’ll have some money to your name. Note, for this luxury, all the while, the bank makes money off you.

Don’t move (you will), don’t make too many life changes (you will), and then you’ll have a nice paid off place to live like they do in the TV shows.

For everything else, move to Atlanta or Nashville and live like a king.

#50 suede on 06.26.18 at 6:39 pm

BTW

Anyone still getting rich off Bitcoin?

It was supposed to change the world.

Now i can’t withdraw funds without waiting 4 days. Even the bank does it in 2.

#51 Ace Goodheart on 06.26.18 at 6:44 pm

Re: #21 Blacksheep on 06.26.18 at 5:23 pm

Immigrants make the economy better, not worse.

They add working people to the population.

Their children join the workforce.

Their families consume goods, produced by manufacturers.

Immigration is good, full stop.

Look at Toronto, for example. Look at the most economically prosperous, economically productive areas of the City. What do you see? I see a whole lot of recent immigrants, working, producing, consuming, building families, and industry in the process.

The only people who disagree with immigration, are racists.

I am sorry, but that is the truth and it is about time someone says it.

#52 conan on 06.26.18 at 6:46 pm

The kitten in the bottom left corner started it.

Source: I was a bouncer at a cat cafe.

Some of the shit I had to deal with.

https://i.imgur.com/WhUu4Ib.mp4

#53 the Jaguar on 06.26.18 at 6:51 pm

Calgary Real Estate Board – May 2018 continued:
Year over year change-inventory – up 36.01%
Year over year months of supply – 2.94 to 4.90 (up 66.66%)
Days on market (y/y) – 37 to 46

Be patient. Given the number of mortgage renewals coming due and the sticker shock on households that have not been paying attention there could very well be even more listings. As Garth so often tells us…sales fall first, then prices. There is often lag time. It won’t be near the carnage that will occur in other places.
As for the fortunes of the city and Alberta in general, never count this city or province out. On its knees it is still a monument to faith, hope and charity. All the quitters exited stage left some time ago. To paraphrase Trudeau#1 “Just watch us”.

#54 KLNR on 06.26.18 at 6:56 pm

meh, renting when you have a family blows.
Buy what you can afford, live your life, be happy.

#55 espressobob on 06.26.18 at 7:07 pm

The psychology of the herd. Lusting for rainbows because they deliver a pot of gold? Naïve and gullible? And most amusing.

RE, Crypto, PM, and the energy crowd miss the point.

This never gets old.

#56 Nonplused on 06.26.18 at 7:08 pm

James did not say what his work situation was but I assume he must have a fairly stable job?

Most of the cutbacks in the oil patch have already been made, they are running on bear bones staff levels right now just to keep the existing production running. Of course until things turn around the only direction for employment to go is down but it won’t be as dramatic as it was in 2014. Nothing is going to change that trend until oil prices go sustainably above $80 or we get some pipelines built. So, realistically Alberta is in a deep recession and has been since 2014.

On the plus side, house prices in Calgary really haven’t gone anywhere since 2006:

http://www.chpc.biz/6-canadian-metros.html

They are up, but not anything like YYZ or YVR, so while I would say there is still considerable risk if you buy it’s much more manageable in YYC.

I too was renting 6 years ago. I had all my money in a REIT type structure that had exploded in price such that my rate of return had fallen to about 2% of what I could sell it for. (The return on what I paid was still pretty good.) I was getting about $2500 a month in dividends, which I then paid tax on, and then paid $2500 a month in after tax money on rent. So I sold the REIT and after many, many months of looking we found what we thought was an ideal house for us and bought it. I didn’t really beat the tax man of course because the capital gains taxes had to be paid but it simplified things. Since I don’t have a mortgage, I consider myself to still be earning 2% on owning the house based on the “owner’s equivalent rent” argument. And while Garth does not advocate paying off your mortgage, I consider the asset available if an investment idea comes up that would justify taking on a mortgage. The money is there, but after paying the interest and taxes I’d probably need something guaranteed north of 5% to justify it. So for now I’m happy to have 2% owner’s equivalent rent tax free. Of course Garth will point out that I’m not counting taxes and maintenance, but it is a lovely house compared to what we were renting. If you want the fancy car you have to pay more for it. That’s just the way it works.

So, James, if your jobs are secure Calgary probably isn’t a bad place to buy right now. You probably won’t make any money for a long time but the downside is probably not much more than your rent over the time you own the house. My advice would be to take your time though and see a lot of houses. This is a good time to wait until you find the “perfect” house for you and your family. Take your time and consider everything, from the house itself, to commute times, the schools in the area, whether your kids will be on a bus to get to school, how far you have to walk to the nearest pub, even what minor sports clubs are in the area (especially important if your kids play hockey as you don’t get a choice which club your kid can play for). If you attend a particular church even consider where that is as chances are all your friends from church more or less live nearby. Although I would put where friends and family live at the bottom of the checklist because they all eventually move away anyway. Or maybe that’s just me.

When buying houses and cars, people often rush much more than they should considering what a major decision it is. Of course the agents and sales persons have every incentive to move you to close as quickly as possible. But right now is the time to take it slow, make your agent earn their money, and see lots and lots of houses. Yes, it’s a considerable amount of time, seriously I was looking at houses every second weekend for 6 months before we finally decided this was the one. But it was worth it. We looked at so much junk that I am very glad we were fussy. Be fussy. Be firm on what you want and what you are willing to pay. Adjust your expectations as to what you can afford as you go along but wait until you know the market well enough to know you are getting the best deal. Pay a little more if the house is well maintained, and if it isn’t ask the seller to fix the place or lower the price.

If you do all that, you’ll be a happy home owner even if you don’t make any money on it.

There is strangely something deeply satisfying about being able to say “my house”, “my car”, “my skis”, etc, when in reality it is almost always cheaper to rent or lease. But that satisfaction comes at a price.

And trust me, even if you do lose money on the house, it’ll pale in comparison to what you will lose in a divorce. That’s risk management 101. And if the house does go down in value, your wife will bear 50% of the loss even in the event of a divorce, so she should get 50% of the votes.

#57 TnT on 06.26.18 at 7:10 pm

#51 Ace Goodheart on 06.26.18 at 6:44 pm
Re: #21 Blacksheep on 06.26.18 at 5:23 pm

*****

The single most important perspective on this topic is whether you are a crab still stuck in the bucket or a crab who made it out of the bucket.

Ask the poor kid in Detroit about jobs and wages then ask Ace….

#58 Mountainguy on 06.26.18 at 7:11 pm

#32 MSM. Thanks!
I was just going to write the same comment. about 4 decades of squandered wealth by the PCs

#59 Willy H on 06.26.18 at 7:15 pm

#51 Ace Goodheart on 06.26.18 at 6:44 pm

Re: #21 Blacksheep on 06.26.18 at 5:23 pm

Immigrants make the economy better, not worse.

They add working people to the population.

Their children join the workforce.

Their families consume goods, produced by manufacturers.

Immigration is good, full stop.

___ ___ ___ ___ ___

Yes, immigration is good for the economy.

Sadly, immigration is the only thing driving Canada’s economic growth.

We are not becoming more competitive or productive globally.

We are not innovating or creating value-add jobs in our economy.

Our economy remains largely resource based with very little value-add that creates incremental wealth.

Immigration, especially in fast growing urban centres like the GTA (T.O.) is destroying Canada’s best farmland at an alarming rate. The quality of life in the GTA has deteriorated. It’s a grid-locked soulless suburban hellscape from Oshawa to St Catherine’s to Kitchener to Newmarket.

#60 brian1 on 06.26.18 at 7:22 pm

Maxime Waters encourages harrassment but when
reporters harass her today she becomes angry.

#61 Smoking Man on 06.26.18 at 7:26 pm

Attn Forex Blog Dogs. USDCAD is consolidating at around 1.33 same volume pattern back in Oct-Nov of 2015 when it went right up to 1.45…

History doesn’t always repeat itself. But if the pattern holds true. Canada is in deep do-do

#62 TS on 06.26.18 at 7:26 pm

In a place like Calgary where you don’t have the hoards of speculators real estate basically boils down to wages and interest rates. Wages go up, interest rates go down = real estate goes up.

All you guys saying Calgary will be back, do you really see wages going up (they are already double the national average). And we all know what is going on with interest rates…

If there is a better case for dead money than oil inflated real estate in cow town, I don’t know what it is.

#63 Trudy on 06.26.18 at 7:27 pm

The women of Canada have had enough with the dude who wears expensive sunglasses. They have coined a new name for said leader, after what they saw he did today with the other joker with their hard earned tax dollars going down the drain. No wonder he will be a no show for Canada Day in Ottawa, as needed to go into hiding. His travel record is now marked ‘private’.

#64 Out Of Work CEO, Will Travel on 06.26.18 at 7:33 pm

Calgary …..a renter’s paradise. Your average GTA renter could never imagine such an accommodating market for human beings.

#65 Shawn Allen on 06.26.18 at 7:35 pm

Anti-Immigrant

Ace Goodheart at 51 boldly said:

“The only people who disagree with immigration, are racists.”

************************************
I would quibble with only but I agree many of the anti-immigrant crowd are racist. I consider nationalism to be the new racism.

But many anti-immigrants are just not knowledgeable about economics and what benefits an economy.

Others just don’t think they can handle the competition – any they may well be right. Certainly the bottom third or so of the labour force might be right on that score.

Allowing immigration is clearly positive for growing GDP.

It is probably (this is not AS clear) better for GDP per capita.

Clearly immigration does harm some existing citizens in some ways.

Immigration is also the right thing to allow from the perspective of human decency, as is aiding other areas of the world to enter at least the 20th century in terms of their own economics and politics.

#66 Flat Earth Society on 06.26.18 at 7:37 pm

I overheard a conversation between 2 folks who said they worked at Shell and seemed knowledgeable, so I jumped in.

They said that many PetroCan (So, Suncor) stations in the YVR area were out of gas due to turnarounds.

Can anyone confirm this happened? I haven’t been out there.

Usually oil companies load up enough supplies ahead of turnaround to see them through. If they run out they buy from others on the wholesale market. I ran both these theories by the Shell employees and they said “nope, the PetroCans are closed”. They made some excuse about the “witch’s brew” (what proprietary additives different brands add to the gas) as being the problem with the wholesale market.

So can any readers from BC confirm they have seen a closed PetroCan? Closed only for gas, the retail stores are apparently still open.

If so, I wonder if Suncor isn’t sending a subtle message to the BC government.

#67 Smartalox on 06.26.18 at 7:37 pm

@Blacksheep #21:

I don’t understand your choices. ‘Giving up a quality of life that you enjoy’ strikes me as not being quite right: are you, yourself really missing out on anything? Food? Shelter? Treats and small luxuries? Travel? All these things are still available to you, are they not?

What you may have lost is the feeling of exclusivity that you might have felt at one time – how the experiences and material goods that you used to see as signs that you were different from ‘the masses’ are now no longer exclusive to you, and the people you feel are just like you.

Now anybody can drive a German sports car, or live in a particular neighbourhood, or eat steak for dinner, if they can afford it (or at least, afford the payments).

It wasn’t always like that: even 50 years ago, there was a huge difference between ‘The Canadian Establishment’ and anything resembling the middle class.

That has changed for many reasons, not least of which are:
– more and better education, simply better earning power
– more and better access to the workplace – particularly for women, minorities and immigrants
– globalization, and the ability to buy things cheaply, including travel, goods and services – as well as finding markets for the same.

To be sure, many gains have been aided by and equally obscured by major expansion and growth of credit and subsequent debt, but if you can live debt free, you can have a middling, middle class job, and build a dynastic / multi-generational level of wealth within a generation.

My family had its place in the ‘Canadian Establishment’ once, though I was born a generation or two too late to participate. Two of my great-grandfathers established a major Canadian bank. One of their daughters (not my line) married the heir to a sugar company. Mansions, servants, cars, travel, clubs, business connections, they had it all, at a time when few in this country had indoor plumbing! The wealth that these titans of industry bestowed on their heirs financed a very high standard of living for generations, but ending with the last generation before mine.

So what happened? Well, if you’re wealthy, you have to make money if you want to stay wealthy. It’s nice when your investments work for you (as I am slowly learning), but even if you’re independently wealthy, there’s nothing stopping you from working to build more wealth.

You’ve got to earn your privilege before you claim it, and however much you think you were born with, fades fast. another thought: privilege is always lost, never taken. Spend your inheritance foolishly, you won’t be wealthy for long – it all just trickles away.

Remember: poverty is not a choice – it’s the thing that happens to you when you don’t do anything to help yourself.

Trump’s supporters support Trump because they’re losers. They may not realise they themselves lost the privilege they feel that they’re owed, but instead chose to blame 50 years of liberal – progressive rule, the onset of globalization, and the crowding of all these ‘uppity’ immigrants, taking all the jobs.

They blame their loss on all that, so they vote for the guy who boasts that he’ll reverse the norms of the past 50 or 60 years, and ‘make things the way they were, again’. This is why the core supports him. For this reason, and none other.

Ironically, Trump’s supporters voted for Trump because they hope he’ll make them feel like winners again, though it is becoming increasingly apparent that Trump has no ability or intention to actually improve the lives of those that make up his base. Instead they’re going to wake up a year or two from now, no further ahead, and in many cases, much worse off than they were in 2015.

#68 WUL on 06.26.18 at 7:41 pm

M’lord, Justice Turner,

I take my feet to make two more points if I may.

Times have changed. Used to be (at least when I was married in Calgary 28 years ago), you got married and bought a house in one fell swoop. There was no analysis and figgerin. It used to pay off.

Next, an interesting article in today’s Calgary Daily Bugle:

http://calgaryherald.com/commodities/energy/sleepy-u-s-canada-border-post-reveals-diverging-oil-fortunes/wcm/a2ccc426-3379-4e80-89c2-33b829ce0825?video_autoplay=true

I’ve been to Texas. Wouldn’t leave Alberta for that place ever. Maternal health care ranks well down the list. Some terrible countries rank better.

Anyway, none of the above matters.

#69 Damifino on 06.26.18 at 7:49 pm

#14 Bobs

Renting is great until the owners sell and you get kicked out.
————————–

It’s a bad idea to rent from land speculators. Rent only from professionals who actually want to be in the rental business.

#70 Blacksheep on 06.26.18 at 7:49 pm

“You just lost a lot of credibility. – Garth”
——————————–
Hmm…until we have some reforms:
——————————–
1) Publicly fund national elections, paying Presidents 5 billion / Prime ministers, one billion annually, making them unbuyable.

2) Ban all corporate / political lobbing, with mandatory jail time for first time offenders, cause corporations, are not people.

3) Ban all offshoring of taxation period, time for every ultra hi end earner to pay your often touted, 53%, then maybe we can actually afford to help the bottom end of our struggling society. The homeless situation in Canada, is just getting out of control.

4) End all US / Can foreign military adventures, closing the 800 US bases globally. Most of the planets current immigration issues stem directly from regime change and intervention in countries that never attacked or invited us in.

5) Put those repatriated military bodies to work, rebuilding North America’s crumbling infrastructure. Funding will come from defunding the pentagon 10% a year, for the next 5 years, plus monies saved by keeping the military on sovereign soil.

6) Set up an international system of trade where tariffs are based solely on: Wages, working conditions, living standards, environmental controls, ect. The better the global citizen they are, the lower tariffs that applied.
—————————–
But of course the above is pure fantasy as the gate keepers will die before allowing this level of change.

So please save the condescending comment for a party the doesn’t see the globalist agenda, for what it is.

I will continue to look after me and mine first, then and only then, if I can give a hand up, I will, with zero guilt.

Names Blacksheep, not fuzzy kitten, for a reason.

#71 50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE! on 06.26.18 at 7:56 pm

At least in Calgary, James has a chance of drowning his sorrows with a Flames Stanley Cup win celebration sometime in his lifetime :)

In Toronto, not so much :(

#72 mitzerboyakaQueencitykidd on 06.26.18 at 8:03 pm

Freebird on 06.26.18 at 5:49 pm

Off topic but I’ve noticed this blog and now very few Cdn corp media sources still supporting free speech by allowing anonymous comments. Others (CBC) are now heavily moderating (censoring?) them. It’s not hard to allow open, even critical public feedback (like here) with a way to publicly flag ones seen as offensive etc, and like Garth, delete them (multiple times) if warranted. I now avoid reading/ supporting media sites who don’t allow open comments, over moderate/control or disable them. It’s a slippery slope in my view. Similar is happening at more universities. I know there’s another side but it’s the argument for it Im not buying. Yet.
—————————————————————-
x2
the local rag here still allows comments
if u wish to comment …. most don’t any more

#73 Saw It All on 06.26.18 at 8:03 pm

#45 S.Bby: – One night at 2:00 AM there was a hen fest taking place that I was watching in a chat room. One of the women was not too happy with her marriage, and was thinking about a divorce. The hens that were gathered had all gone through it, and giving her advice. It was mutually agreed to always get the house first, before you go for his last dime – shocking!

#74 tccontrarian on 06.26.18 at 8:03 pm

James…

The familial pressures notwithstanding, see if you can ‘negotiate’ to wait till, say, December 2020, while following the trends for neigbourhoods you’d like to live in. If the trend continues noticeably down then she may just have a change of heart – when the hormones subside! Just don’t add the litter as that will get them firing again!

Ideally, you want to be buying at the tail end of a deflationary cycle, which will likely occur over the next 2-3 years.
Personally, I’m now renting (I sold in 2015), and I’ve concentrated my efforts in growing my net worth until said event.

TCC

#75 For those about to flop... on 06.26.18 at 8:04 pm

Feel the power…

M44BC

“See How Much Each State Pays for Electricity in Two Maps.

President Trump recently ordered the Energy Department to bail out several unprofitable power plants around the country. There’s no doubt Trump is a big supporter of the coal industry, but it made us think about how the government interferes with energy markets. After all, electric companies are a regulated public utility and they’re subject to additional scrutiny when it comes to setting prices. We wanted to better understand how this impacts the economy, so we created two maps showing residential and commercial electricity prices.

Our data comes from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. We created two heat maps, one for residential electricity (what you pay out-of-pocket at your house) and one for commercial electricity (what businesses pay). Energy utilities can charge different rates depending on the nature of their customers because some companies consume massive amounts of electricity. We turned these numbers into a heat map by state, where the shade corresponds to the price in cents per kilowatt hour (cents/kWh). The result is two snapshots of the American energy economy in easy-to-understand maps.

Top 5 States with the Most Expensive Residential Electricity Rates (cents/kWh)
1. Hawaii: 31.57

2. Massachusetts: 21.64

3. Alaska: 21.43

4. Rhode Island: 21.42

5. Connecticut: 20.77

Top 5 States with the Priciest Commercial Electricity Rates (cents/kWh)
1. Hawaii: 29.17

2. Alaska: 18.81

3. Rhode Island: 17.19

4. Massachusetts: 17.17

5. Connecticut: 16.89

Our maps reveal a few key similarities between the residential and commercial electrical markets. Let’s start by considering the Northeast, the region in which electricity is the most expensive. Both residential and business consumers pay above-average rates in states like Connecticut and New York because of the large population centers. In other words, our maps clearly illustrate how high levels of demand increase cost. The same can be said about California, where the combination of large cities and a strong environmental movement decrease the availability of things like coal-fired power plants. Alaska’s status as an expensive market makes a certain amount of sense, too—it costs a lot of money for any company to electrify the last frontier. Curiously, both maps highlight how Wisconsin and Michigan pay above average, too, owing perhaps to their location far away from natural gas and coal repositories.

Both maps are also in agreement at the opposite end of the spectrum. The cheapest markets tend to be in the deep South and other very rural states. The best prices for residential electricity are in Louisiana (9.05 cents/kWH) and the best rates for commercial electricity are in Oklahoma (7.72 cents/kWh). At a glance, there are light shades in both maps throughout the country’s midsection.

Finally, there are a few surprises beneath the surface as well. In general, consumers pay a higher rate for electricity than businesses (13.31 vs. 10.00 cents/kWh). Oddly enough, Tennessee and Louisiana are the only two states where consumers pay a better rate; every other state has a better price for commercial customers. Pennsylvania has the greatest disparity between the two rates—businesses pay 4.69 cents/kWh less than consumers, which comes out to a 33% discount.

The big takeaway from our maps is that even in a highly regulated market—including one in which the President intervenes to bail out major companies—the laws of supply and demand still determine price.”

https://howmuch.net/articles/electricity-rates-by-state

#76 Capt. Serious on 06.26.18 at 8:12 pm

Buy a house you can afford and move on. In Calgary it ought to be possible. Life is not all about the portfolio.

#77 The Real Mark (not the imposter) on 06.26.18 at 8:13 pm

While I’m usually quite the RE bear, and correctly identified that Calgary’s RE bubble peaked in 2011 (coincident with the last big orgy of front-end engineering done for the oilsands projects, and ahead of the pan-Canadian 2013 peak), anecdotally a lot of my friends and associates, and even myself are receiving a lot of interest from firms for engineering jobs. Even non-O&G firms who had hiring freezes are starting to take steps to revive requisitions that have sat unfilled for the past year or two. If there’s a revival in the works, the very front end of it appears to be starting to take shape. At least as far as the engineering sector is concerned.

Will engineers, many of whom, particularly the younger ones, were priced out of the market during the last boom by outrageous tradespeople salaries, finally be able to get a foothold? Perhaps. This time around, with the collapsing RE market in the rest of the country, it will be much easier, across the whole spectrum of trades, to power Alberta’s growth without experiencing the sort of wage inflation that happened last time around. The calamity of engineers earning less than tradespeople, and even police officers may finally start to abate. A HR study I read indicated Alberta engineers could enjoy average wage increases of 6% this year, which is considerably closes the gap.

“In a place like Calgary where you don’t have the hoards of speculators real estate basically boils down to wages and interest rates. “

Interesting you say that. Calgary, unlike Toronto and Vancouver, actually had real jobs for newcomers to Canada. Hence, the famous “landlord families” didn’t proliferate to anywhere near the same extent as seen in GTA/GVR, the dominant force in those respective RE markets.

#78 bubu on 06.26.18 at 8:25 pm

Buy in Calgary or Edmonton… prices will go up from here… Actually in the neighborhoods close to downtown or universities the prices go up…. For the prices to be lower in AB, Toronto and Vancouver markets should go down 40-50% which is not realistic…. Calgary and Edmonton prices will go up, Vancouver and Toronto down and they will meet in the middle….700-750k … Anything different will be a huge recession and who cares about the prices at that point….

#79 TnT on 06.26.18 at 8:27 pm

#67 Smartalox on 06.26.18 at 7:37 pm

There is a reason that The US military and CIA / FBI are making the US economy a national defense interest.

Check out Peter Zeihan work on the subject of Global Trade. zeihan.com

Check any YouTube videos on the plight of Detroit.

Connect the dots between the poverty in USA to the local politicians control of Unions, School Boards to Federal policies on foreign trade.

Query “elephant graph economics” and learn its meaning.

Query “Made in China 2025 policy”

Check out Peter Navarro and his free movie Death by China.

Peter is the Director of the White House National Trade Council, a newly created entity in the executive branch of the U.S. federal government.

The US military is scared right now that it is about to get usurped by China.

If more people were emigrating to China from USA then I would not care, BUT it is the other way around.

Therefore I do care who Alpha Dog is….

#80 Shawn Allen on 06.26.18 at 8:30 pm

Alberta Wages are Still Tops

Just came across this:

In 2017, 8 of the 10 economic regions with the highest average hourly wages were in Alberta and the territories. Wood Buffalo–Cold Lake, Alberta, had the highest average hourly wage at $34.35.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/180626/dq180626a-eng.htm?CMP=mstatcan

Averages don’t mean a lot, (’cause not everyone is anywhere near average) but perhaps some interesting data here about average wages by occupation.

#81 NoName on 06.26.18 at 8:33 pm

Of topic but interesting, i’ll be getting paperback as soon is available.

John Butman: “New World, Inc.
The Making of America by England’s Merchant […]”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CWOtDojV0b4

#82 Bob Dog on 06.26.18 at 8:42 pm

If there is so much uncertainty in Canada, why is the TSE in such a tear the last 6 months.

Devaluation of the CAD perhaps

#83 Long-Time Lurker on 06.26.18 at 8:47 pm

Yesterday’s comment section looked nuttier than usual -which says a lot.

The U.S. is going nuts. Some of the left/Democrats are promoting aggression against Trump supporters. Steve Scalise almost died last year because of some nut-job with a rifle. Um, try voting again in a few years?

So, I heard oil went up today because Trump is trying to get Iranian oil banned. Friday’s jump in oil prices (against the fundamentals) might have been insider trading.

Thanks, Smokey. I say CAD down for the next five years. It’ll take that long to work our way out of our mess.

#84 Gregor Samsa on 06.26.18 at 8:52 pm

#18 Sean Allen

Easy explanation for that. Since taking over, the Notely NDP government has not dared to harm so much as a single hair on a single public servant head. So the days of bloated payrolls, fat government salaries, and loads of free time to spend it (since most barely work) have not ended in Edmonton. Most Alberta public servants reside in Edmonton.

As for Calgary, most sellers are underwater and just praying for a greater fool to come along and buy them out. I personally know of a townhouse over $100K underwater, being rented at a monthly loss to keep the lights on.

The higher interest rates in Canada get, the lower house prices get. We are on a downward trajectory. In a speech Monday night, Trump again made threats against Canada and mentioned energy. Alberta oil pours into the USA tariff free due to NAFTA. If Trump blows that up, you won’t be able to give a house away in Calgary. It’s still very much a one-trick pony sort of town.

#85 Its A Secret on 06.26.18 at 8:59 pm

What ever happened to transparency? Our government is now writing off huge loans, but won’t say how much or who borrowed this money. What a day! Just wait to see the other mess.

#86 Tony on 06.26.18 at 9:19 pm

Re: #18 Shawn Allen on 06.26.18 at 5:13 pm

When was the last time you were in Edmonton? Homes sit for years on mls as more and more people leave Alberta. Edmonton’s only hope is retirees from British Columbia looking for a low cost of living.

#87 Slowly Boiling Frogs on 06.26.18 at 9:21 pm

#17 Renter’s Revenge! on 06.26.18 at 5:08 pm

HOLY CRAP! That is the most overwhelming and depressing 10 minutes I have ever spent in Wikipedia.

It’s incredible that there are any human beings left.

#88 Trojan House on 06.26.18 at 9:23 pm

Mars and Venus – careful, Garth. In today’s world everyone will have us believe men and women are equal. So, it’s more like Mars and Mars. However, what James’ letter says is that men and women are nowhere near equal. Women are emotional and make decisions based on emotion. Men are more practical and make decisions based on practicality. Of course he has to buy a house. He has to keep the “happy” emotion in his wife otherwise he’s screwed – and not in the good way.

#89 Tony on 06.26.18 at 9:26 pm

DELETED

#90 NoName on 06.26.18 at 9:49 pm

#67 Smartalox on 06.26.18 at 7:37 pm

Remember: poverty is not a choice – it’s the thing that happens to you when you don’t do anything to help yourself.


Hang oh that taught as long as you can, its much better to believe in that than in a reality.

Poor people are poor because they have very few options to succeed, and competition is fierce, not because they are lazy. Chances/oportunities to elevate you self up are very rare. I almost had chance during dot com, and GFC but life and ignorance (slowly i am coming to terms that ignorance is not bad word) got in a way.

I spend considerable time listening, reading and watching what i could find on social mobility, i can say i learn some, but i guess what i am steel in a bucket…

Rule of tumb is after you immigrate/get born where you find yourself in 10 years of working life, that is most likely (almost certenty) where you will stay remainder of your live there. “Rule” fairly well applies to with money and with nomoney. In my 20 years i witness only 1 person that transitioned from middle class to top 5%, and i did met lots of people.

i might be wrong, but wrong rearly i am.

#91 Myra Andrews on 06.26.18 at 9:51 pm

The inventory is staying the same. Must be that a lot of people have pulled their houses off the market

Greater Vancouver Stats from realtor Paul

June 26 New 209 Sold 104 TI: 12,788
June 25 New 231 Sold 103 TI: 12,755
June 22 New 160 Sold 93 TI: 12,755
June 21 New 202 Sold 119 TI: 12,758
June 20 New 224 Sold 119 TI: 12,744
June 19 New 268 Sold 152 TI: 12,715
June 18 New 285 Sold 149 TI: 12,699
June 15 New 179 Sold 140 TI: 12,637
June 14 New 306 Sold 104 TI: 12,679
June 13 New 278 Sold 134 TI: 12,533
June 12 New 318 Sold 106 TI: 12,477
June 11 New 372 Sold 131 TI: 12,368
June 8 New 202 Sold 108 TI: 12,271
June 7 New 232 Sold 117 TI: 12,226
June 6 New 295 Sold 156 TI: 12,154
June 5 New 359 Sold 101 TI: 12,105
June 4 New 376 Sold 117 TI: 11,942
June 1 New 224 Sold 105 TI: 11,817

Inventory at the end of:
May- 11,975
April- 10,459
March- 9,032
Feb- 8,211

#92 Mr Happy on 06.26.18 at 9:54 pm

“She wants you to buy a house so that she and the kids keep it if you guys get divorced.”

This where Garth and I differ! Take as much money as the MIL will give you!! Cuz you will keep half of that [email protected]&$#s money in the divorce!!!

#93 TurnerNation on 06.26.18 at 9:59 pm

#51 Ace G

Your post is a visual microaggression. Your thesis is built upon an item of social construct.
Enough virtual signalling and liberal guilt.

P.s. I’d not recommend wrapping thyself with any flag. Why, the first rule of economics: Capital is mobile.

P.p.s. long ENB

#94 islander on 06.26.18 at 10:14 pm

http://www.kernickhomes.com/search_foreclosure.php
Check out Calgary foreclosures…..list growing daily!
Have fun James. Probably as good a time to buy as any- as you’ll be holding on to your property for at least 10 – 15 years, I hope.
I take it your job is secure.
A family man – three kids – go for it. Just make sure you don’t buy more than you can afford.
That’s the secret to house happiness!
All the family and friends ‘oooing and ahhing’ won’t pay the bills if you go overboard.

#95 MP's Must Come Back on 06.26.18 at 10:22 pm

Trudy and the Liberal Government have called an emergency meeting to get back to Ottawa. In the meantime Xi Jinping of China went on the attack against America and the Beast. He said we have no drug problems, so clean your own house, and told them how to do it. The opiates are being manufactured by X company in huge amounts in USA for example.

#96 For those about to flop... on 06.26.18 at 10:33 pm

Recent sale report.

This house on Vancouver’s Westside just sold.

2957 w 23rd ave ,Vancouver

Originally asking 2.48

Lower price to 1.88

Just sold for 2.1

Assessment 2.53

So the drastic reduction got the intended attention and they got them up ,but it still went 17% less than assessed.

So fresh a sale it’s still up on zolo…

M44BC

2018-03-06 : $2,488,000
2018-06-18 : $1,888,000

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/2957-west-23rd-avenue

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Feel free to make a donation.

Flop For Fox Fund…

http://www.terryfox.org/get-involved/ways-to-give/

#97 Moh Omar on 06.26.18 at 10:36 pm

Honestly if your wife/partner cannot understand the reasoning on why it is a bad idea to buy a house at this time then it is time to reconsider your marriage/relationship. I picked up this blog in 2012 and I summarize Garth’s post to my wife all the time. She agrees with me all the time saying that buying a house right now is Financial suicide when total housing expenses. My wife of 5 years (I am 32 and she is 28) has been supportive in us renting a two bedroom apartment in Brampton. Guys lets stop arguing that Women and Men beliefs are different when it comes to housing or money. If your women or man understands any sort of basic financing they will understand that renting is absolutely fine. My wife and I brag all the time to ourselves on the great decision we made to rent after getting married in 2014. We save what we can but we also enjoy life. Lots of finer things in life than owning a house. We both have great furniture that very comfortable. We both have very nice wardrobes. We also have two cars and we are not afraid to spend a few dollars on things that important to us. Not to mention that I work for Bank I have a Pension Plan, RRSP and a little bit TFSA. She also has a TFSA and RRSP. All in all it is great to be married with your soulmate. Love conquers our marriage not houses and possessions.

#98 Lobster Man on 06.26.18 at 10:36 pm

Similar to what #77 Real Mark says, I am also optimistic about the engineering activities that will soon be revived in the Alberta oil industry – especially with respect to the older plants. They may not be full scale new installations. But they will be large scale rebuilds.
You see, most of these plant infrastructures are decades old. The transformer that blew up in Syncrude was very old. Such equipment do not last forever. This was a lesson learned. No doubt Syncrude management is now looking into the possibility of a huge rebuild, not just for the electrical system, but other infrastructures as well.

And Suncor will need to do the same.

They cannot afford to have downtimes like this one.

So, my message to Albertans: Just hang on!

#99 Mike on 06.26.18 at 10:45 pm

Remember James (or anyone else considering buying) – DON’T SIGN A BRA!!!

#100 CalgaryCarGuy on 06.26.18 at 10:50 pm

It is nice to see my fellow Calgarians sticking up for our city and province tonight. Thankyou. You can always tell a true born and raised Calgarian by their positive and confident feelings about the strength this city has always had. It really does have a strong heart and is a terrific place to call home.
My family roots trace back to the United States in the 1800’s and my ancestors first came up here in about 1896 checking things out. They went back to California and then came up again for good in approximately 1906. Homesteaded near Lacombe. Sod roof cabin—the whole nine yards. There is a lot of pride in living in this beautiful province. We’re fighters. We have also proven ourselves to have long memories (eg. NEP). Don’t forget that. We value our friends and we don’t forget our enemies.

#101 TRUMP on 06.26.18 at 10:58 pm

Classic pic.

Reminds me of our UNION BOSS surrounded by the managers.

HAHA

#102 islander on 06.26.18 at 11:02 pm

#35 Ace Goodheart
” how can I do that, when I have to take care of two Toronto houses? Who will water the plants? Cut the grass? Bring the bins out on garbage day and then back in again? ”
Oh so true. That’s one reason people downsize. There is more to life (I hope) than ‘the house or houses’.
And by the way, there is a reason we used to refer to married women as ‘housewives’! Yeah – married to the house! And don’t you forget it!
As our host has pointed out more than once – balance – balance…..

#103 Balmuto on 06.26.18 at 11:07 pm

It’s hard to forecast with all the headline risk from trade wars, etc. but I wouldn’t be betting against the CAD with oil prices in a solid uptrend. Historically, there is a 75%-80% positive correlation:

http://forexexperts.net/index.php/trade-strategy/forex-correlations/oil-usdcad-correlation

#104 Niagara Region on 06.26.18 at 11:11 pm

#45 S.Bby
But yeah it’s always the wife wanting the house.
_______________________________________
S.Bby, this claim is too universalizing. In my case, it’s my hubbie who wants a house. I don’t much care if I buy a house or not–apart from the possibility of escaping those landlords who are sleazy.

Renting often sucks. I was severely injured by my landlords who were negligent; and under Ontario law, an injured party doesn’t get much of a settlement for injuries, even when severe. (I checked.) I’m in my early 50s and have rented my entire adult life, as has my hubbie who rents elsewhere because of work. From landlords, I’ve dealt with sexual harassment, major cockroach infestations, two sets of severe injuries, destruction of my property through water damage and mold, and more. My hubbie has dealt with an in-house landlord hooking up his own apartment’s electrical wires to my husband’s meter, a different in-house landlord hooking up his own heating pipes to my husband’s furnace, bailing waste-high sewage in the basement for months, and more. There are far too many sleazy landlords out there.

Although many people might complain that tenants have a lot of rights, I have not found this to be the case (at least regarding the above issues).

A nesting instinct makes no sense to me, but escaping abusive landlords is one logic I can get behind.

#105 Its Only Money on 06.26.18 at 11:16 pm

Class action suit from thousands, with more to come from your tax dollars. RCMP faces $1.1 Billion lawsuit over bullying and harassment dating back decades. What will Trudy the feminist do for these women now?

#106 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.26.18 at 11:17 pm

@#77 Floppie
Interesting stats on electrical rates in the US.
I used to manage several buildings in dwntwn Van and we we constantly trying to “game the rates” through conservation, load shifting, energy efficient upgrades, etc.
I remember one 200,000 sq ft office tower we retrofitted all the fluorescent fixtures (lights are the biggest power draw in most office buildings) from 2 tube 4ft T12’s to single tube T8 fixtures with reflectors.
Our consumption dropped by 40% overnight.
A corporate accountant from Toronto called us the next month to ask if we had lost a major tenant.
We also realized huge power savings because the reduction of lighting also meant we reduced our building heat load in the Summer, hence less refrigeration required to cool the building.
Demand charges also kick in.
BC Hydro charges you more for “peak demand” ie big power draws when everyone else is drawing maximum power.
I would stagger our floor fan start times by 15 minutes per floor as opposed to starting all the fans in the building at the exact same time. Huge savings.
After a large Quebec based company took over the management of the building they brought in an unimaginative, by the book, dolt who reversed all the changes I had made.
All ligghting, fans , pumps, refrig units started at the exact same time….why? because its easier for the dolt to program the computor…who cares about power savings, the planet, ..he isnt paying for it.

I left to better endeavours. The idiot hired lickspittles to cheer his every stupid, brainless move.

I reduced the power consumption in a new company I started at by 45% the first two months I was there by doing the same things I had done before.

Unfortunately, as I travel through life I realize…..
Common sense……..isnt so common.

#107 Bottoms_Up on 06.26.18 at 11:36 pm

James, buy a house you can afford, in an area of the city you like, and would be happy living in for 5-10 years. You will make money (maybe not a tonne), but you will pay down the mortgage a bit, and it will likely be worth more 5-10 years out. A house is a place to live, to raise kids. Take a 30 year amortization. Take a variable rate. Your payments will be very reasonable.

#108 Mrs. Fool on 06.26.18 at 11:36 pm

Garth,
Real state is in our genes, this madness will continue forever. I have a friend in Calgary who lost her job in the oil patch two and a half years ago. No job prospects, living off her savings and she doesn’t want to sell her condo!
The previous owner contacted her recently to ask whether she is interested in selling it back to him, i.e. he will take her mortgage and pay what she has put down on it (she bought it under the same agreement), but she refuses to make a deal. She says her condo has increased in value (was bought about five years ago) and doesn’t want to sell for less of ‘its worth’.
Go figure!

#109 TS on 06.26.18 at 11:54 pm

I get why people would want to put down roots in Calgary. It really is a nice place to live. Where else in North America is rush hour at 3:30 in the afternoon and Fridays off to play in the Rockies. And they make more than anyplace in Canada. The flip side to that is try to organize a meeting after 4pm in cowtown. Never going to happen. The pool of workers doesn’t translate well to anywhere outside the oil bubble. Cost matters in energy now, and Calgary will have trouble keeping its salaries at double the national average. It already has the highest unemployment in the country even with the rebound in oil prices. Bricks are still expensive in Calgary…rent and enjoy your Fridays in the Rockies.

#110 Jasper Flyer on 06.27.18 at 12:00 am

I have been doing business in Calgary for 40 years and seen the town up and down, I appreciate all the current problems with interest rates up and the current slowdown. Last week I spent a day downtown and the mojo is returning to YYC, Shell should announce an LNG plant this fall and Alberta may crawl out of a hole despite both levels of government trying to bury western Canada. There are worse places than YYC to buy a home and get on with life..

#111 Spectacle on 06.27.18 at 12:08 am

#111 Good Article on 06.25.18 at 8:53 pm
#96 Spectacle – I saw that the other day, and have a pic of T2 from BC with date unknown dressed up at a gay affair wearing a cowboy suit in shorts with guns holstered on each hip laughing. He wasn’t married at this time.

———————————–
Thank You #111 Good Article from yesterday…

Makes for thought how powerful and abusive of that power the Canadian Government is. Mr Stupid Socks, failed Drama teacher,
1) Woman elbower in the House,
2) Groper of Women but it doesn’t matter because he supports women, and the environment, and corruption..oh and those quaint Natives, oh and Pipelines that will never be built ( (250 plus permits of 1000+ required not even applied for yet)

He got money from an offshore investor with tons of money, might have torched his own 2nd Shagnessey Heritage house and leaves it exposed to the Vancouver rain.

Point being::

## nobody wants to end their career because T2 Idiot Socks will End it., if they expose him for the entitled useless ;.$9!|},.}-hole he really is. And End their career.

The good:: there are very powerful people going after corrupt Trudeau ! Panama Papers sure stays out of the Canadian Media. Leak 2 just came out! Ouch.

More to come tomorrow I imagine.

Rant over thnx

#112 NoName on 06.27.18 at 12:27 am

@106 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.26.18 at 11:17 pm

Fluorescent bulbs as I like to call them.

I remember when my former employer, retrofit all hibay HPS and metal halide with t5, man where they happy when they got gov. check for green rebate.

As for t5 they suck they could not handle heat in non wented fixtures. Good thing was who ever sold them bill of goods guaranteed them new “bulbs” for 3 years. Rumor was there was up to “hiden” somewhere.

#113 NoName on 06.27.18 at 12:38 am

Interesting read

Reuters reports that, according to the Mexican Automotive Armor Association, sales this year will rise to 3,284 armored vehicles, above the previous all-time record in 2012. It’s particularly important in the luxury vehicle market, where high net-worth buyers feel targeted and unsafe:

Brazil, in particular, is a massive spot for armored car sales. A total of 15,145 armored cars were sold in the country in 2017, with sales expected to grow by a staggering 25 percent this year, according to Reuters.

https://jalopnik.com/rich-people-in-mexico-and-brazil-cant-get-enough-armore-1827142546

#114 Clearwater on 06.27.18 at 1:00 am

Long time renter in calgary. Just bought a 1.2m place downtown. Was 1.4 in 2011. Good enough i suppose. Plan to die in the place so no need to worry about price. Went in with an expectation of a 20-30% price drop but could not keep waiting any longer. Hope it works out.

#115 Clearwater on 06.27.18 at 1:09 am

Our company just subleased a pile of space in dt calgary. Looks busy to me downtown and in the shops. Expecting things to go gangbusters when the lng plant gets approved. Cowtown is on a diffirent cycle than canada.

#116 James on 06.27.18 at 1:11 am

Garth you softie. Thanks for caring for us.

#117 Fortune500 on 06.27.18 at 1:12 am

My unsolicited advice is to play hardball and make some cheeky offers. Try to stick to less than 3.5 family income.

Expect the value to dip in the coming years, but if your plan is to stay in this ‘family home’ for more than 10 years, than it will likely all come out in the wash.

#118 harp sangha on 06.27.18 at 1:14 am

Garth you are political prisoner, you beliefs about Ford and Trump are sad. these “men” will bring sanity back to the system you were a part of and could not fix. GO AWAY

#119 Deano on 06.27.18 at 1:22 am

Awe smiley ways, smiley ways. Brilliant BS to moisters who fell for it. Mr Socks what a Fake. The media loved it and everything was going to be like the second coming of Obama made in Canada. Was Steven Harper that bad? Can’t make the same mistake again or are kids,kids will pay a huge price.

#120 Dolce Vita on 06.27.18 at 2:07 am

#31 Phil

True Phil but then again, it is all FREE.

And if what you say is true, the Blog would post its investment prowess by showing returns for their clients with happy story quotes all over the Blog page side margins to reinforce that success [and with inquiry numbers, addresses, etc.] and other forms of advertising.

I see none of this.

#121 NoName on 06.27.18 at 2:37 am

Interesting read

A 10% reduction in Hb1Ac reduces the risk of death as a result of diabetes by 21%, and drops by 37% other complications, like blindness and loss of feeling in hands and feet, according to a 2000 study.
http://fortune.com/2018/06/21/tuberculosis-vaccine-reverse-juvenile-diabetes-study-shows/

#122 NoName on 06.27.18 at 2:45 am

Oil from the thin air, Uran I um from see water…

https://www.pnnl.gov/news/release.aspx?id=4514

#123 Karl on 06.27.18 at 6:41 am

It seems New York condos are in a record high demand as investments:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-27/nyc-condos-become-rentals-at-a-record-rate-as-investors-pile-in

#124 MF on 06.27.18 at 7:03 am

#93 TurnerNation on 06.26.18 at 9:59 pm

Rich coming from someone whose every post is about unknown faceless evil “elites”.

I’ve seen the positives of immigration (legal). I’ve rarely any your posts be positive, just useless paranoia, whiny complaints and attempts to be subversive/edgy.

MF

#125 Wrk.dover on 06.27.18 at 7:21 am

I have a tool room with four, four foot single tube old school florescent fixtures. Dim and flickering when cold. Shadowy at the best of times. I threw $100 at two T8 ballasts, some conduit to be able to hook two fixtures on one ballast, and four LED four foot tubes.

Now for one penny, I can be snow blind for eight hours in there at any temperature. The pay back is in the vision.

#126 Wrk.dover on 06.27.18 at 7:25 am

Correction: penny/hour

#127 Pawan on 06.27.18 at 7:39 am

Garth – what’s your rule of 90?

#128 Axehead on 06.27.18 at 8:18 am

Why not Cochrane, James? Nice place to raise a family. 30k people. Clean mountain river runs thru town. Close to Banfffff and mountains. 30 min to downtown Cgy. Less expensive housing.

#129 Renter's Revenge! on 06.27.18 at 8:24 am

#87 Slowly Boiling Frogs on 06.26.18 at 9:21 pm
#17 Renter’s Revenge! on 06.26.18 at 5:08 pm
“HOLY CRAP! That is the most overwhelming and depressing 10 minutes I have ever spent in Wikipedia.”

Well, I did warn people :)

“It’s incredible that there are any human beings left.”

That’s funny, I was thinking something similar. Like, after all that, how are there still so many people on the planet?

One thing I learned from the list of wars and genocide, was that the Armenian genocide from 1914-1918 was conducted by the “Young Turks” government in the name of progressive change.

So that goofball liberal political show on YouTube, “The Young Turks”, is actually named after a group responsible for genocide!

#130 dharma bum on 06.27.18 at 8:44 am

“And refuse to take any house money from your MIL. Kiss of death.” – Garth
——————————————————————–

Ha ha!

Back in 1983, when houses in the GTA ‘burbs were still relatively cheap, my MIL came to us (recently married) and announced that she has just put down payments on
2 new-builds on the same street for her son and daughter (my BIL and wife).
Oh GOODY!
I now get to move into a place of my MIL’s choosing, next to my BIL, and be beholden to her unbridled generosity as long as I live.
Uh, no.
I rejected the gift.
To the dismay of my wife, and in-laws, I was a pariah, and an ingrate. Persona non grata.
We continued to rent for the next two years.
Ended up buying a house of our own choosing, in a location of our own choosing, nowhere near the family.
Happy, happy, happy.
Don’t make a deal with the devil.

#131 HaHaHa on 06.27.18 at 8:51 am

DELETED

#132 Midnights on 06.27.18 at 9:06 am

Gerald Celente

http://www.newsmaxtv.com/shows/the-brett-winterble-show/vid/0_bm44n4jw

#133 The Technical Analyst, CSTA, CPD on 06.27.18 at 9:13 am

I really like Calgary, it is my favorite Canadian city. But Alberta has changed over the past 20 years, NDP, Calgary mayor, but still, it is a great “small-city” place (horrible long winters though). O&G is still the future in Canada, not pot or tech*. (*unless we can complete vs India, Philippines or a host of other countries willing to work 1/5th our wages).

Ontario, I like, but not as much, too much anti-success headwinds, distrust and I’m shocked the NDP didn’t get elected here.

Even with the -50°C windchill 6 month winters I’ll most likely be moving back to Calgary in my future.

Go Calgary!

#134 For those about to flop... on 06.27.18 at 9:57 am

Probably worth getting athletes foot for…

M44BC

“How Much do the World’s Highest-Paid Athletes Make?

The media pays a lot of attention to the gargantuan multi-year contracts that star athletes sign with different teams, but did you know that they usually make more money from sponsors than from the teams they play for? Our new visualization captures the different sources of income for the 25 most highly-compensated athletes over the last year.

We adapted a ranking from Forbes into a visualization—the vertical axis represents an athlete’s salary or winnings and the horizontal axis represents endorsement or sponsorship deals. The size of each bubble corresponds to total compensation, while the color indicates a particular sport. We also added each athlete’s photo for easy reference.

Top Ten Highest-Paid Athletes ($M)
1. Floyd Mayweather (Boxing): $285M

2. Lionel Messi (Soccer): $111M

3. Cristiano Ronaldo (Soccer): $108M

4. Conor McGregor (Mixed Martial Arts): $99M

5. Neymar (Soccer): $90M

6. LeBron James (Basketball): $85.5M

7. Roger Federer (Tennis): $77.2M

8. Stephen Curry (Basketball): $76.9M

9. Matt Ryan (Football): $67.3M

10. Matthew Stafford (Football): $59.5M

Our visualization looks different than the one we produced last year thanks in large part to Floyd Mayweather, who clearly stands out at the top of our rankings. That’s because he orchestrated a highly-anticipated boxing match and media circus with Conor McGregor, the 4th-ranked athlete on our list. Mayweather and McGregor are quite exceptional in the sense that their earnings appear to be unrepeatable (unless they have another match). Most of the other athletes in our visualization have multi-year contracts that pay tens of millions no matter what happens. All things being equal, that means they will remain on this list next year, too.

It’s easy to pick out the outliers in our visualization. Basketball has the highest number of athletes (6), but boxing clearly has the most money ($368.5M). Perhaps the most interesting fact about our visualization is what’s missing: baseball players. The original 100-athlete list from Forbes has 3 baseball players in the top 50, but none of them made it into the top 25. The comparably low compensation rates make us wonder why professional players of “America’s Pastime” don’t grumble more about their pay, considering their season consists of a whopping 162 games, compared with 82 in the NBA and a measly 16 in the NFL.

Our visualization reveals a key insight about the sports world: it is much easier to cash in on endorsement deals than normal player/athlete salaries. Look how the bubbles are spread out along the horizontal axis more so than along the vertical axis. This indicates that athletes get more money from sponsors than from actually playing their sports. Part of the reason why has to do with salary caps—for example, NBA teams are restricted in the amount of money they can offer LeBron James this summer. Things are different in tennis, but even still, Roger Federer gets paid a lot more for making sure that his tennis racket is made by Wilson than for what he accomplishes while swinging it.

https://howmuch.net/articles/worlds-highest-paid-athletes-in-top-sports

#135 Tolerance on 06.27.18 at 10:35 am

http://www.cbc.ca/news/opinion/trudeau-zero-tolerance-1.4723664

#136 Blacksheep on 06.27.18 at 10:36 am

Ace #51,

“Re: #21 Blacksheep on 06.26.18 at 5:23 pm

“Immigration is good, full stop.”

“They add working people to the population”.
————————————
Demand VS Supply applies to all things, including labour availability and Real Estate.

1) How’s Canadian wages holding up?

https://globalnews.ca/news/3531614/average-hourly-wage-canada-stagnant/

2) The average price for a detached in T.O. $ 891K

https://www.zolo.ca/toronto-real-estate/trends

3) And how about we take care of these people first:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/30-000-canadians-are-homeless-every-night-1.1413016

4) Or maybe these:

https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/census-children-make-up-one-quarter-of-4-8m-canadians-living-in-poverty-1.3587472

If our house was thriving and holding its own, let in all the immigrants, the country can comfortably handle.

But…

Just look at the economic situation affecting millions of Canadians, already here and struggling.

Something tells me, adding more bodies to an all ready highly stressed system, will not help matters, in anyway.

#137 Steel Tariffs on 06.27.18 at 10:56 am

The Liberal government is going to apply steel tariffs against a global list of countries to appease the Beast in the hope that Canada will be passed over. This could have consequences, and not a very good idea because China is on the list. Nothing more than a sign of weakness at this point.

#138 DM in C on 06.27.18 at 11:11 am

We got out of the Cowtown market in March.

Sold for $50k more than what we paid, after 5 years. Since then, it’s been nothing but priced reduced in our community, and listings have bloated.

Now renting in the same community, 2min from our old house — for less than our principal mortgage payment, no taxes, no maintenance, no worries. Socking $4k/month into investments. Heading to Europe for three weeks in August.

Can’t time the market, but we did all right.

#139 Shortymac on 06.27.18 at 11:13 am

Don’t blame women, blame society for not teaching women finances and making them risk-averse.

I love the books “Nice girls don’t get the corner office” and “Nice girls don’t get rich” by Dr. Lois Frankel. Frankel goes through the various financial pitfalls women find themselves in and how to get out of it or avoid it.

I also like Suzy Orman (US) and Gail Vaz-Oxlade (Canada) for personal finance. Buy these books for her and learn these concepts together.

I’m the financial gal in our relationship and I’m very business oriented because my parents made sure I learned the basics from a young age and drilled it into me.

Many don’t or have bad/old-fashioned ideas about finance, like his in-laws.

#140 NutzFactory on 06.27.18 at 11:55 am

Dear sir, should I put a hold on your order of truck nutz?

#141 Analogy on 06.27.18 at 11:59 am

I have looked at our leader, the drama queen, with his cabinet holding files that have no clue, and has always been a formula ending badly. This reminds me of my small town building the finest arena anywhere which even had a room to stage live plays. Our hockey team could not be beat, and it had a few super stars who eventually turned pro. One day it was announced that an expedition game would take place because the Detroit Red Wings were coming. The buzz around town was we were going to kick their butts. In essence we had become the Judy Rangers against the Detroit Red Wings who were going to go down. The seats were filled with standing room only. Things didn’t end too well that night because we lost – 21 to 1.

#142 Brett in Calgary on 06.27.18 at 12:11 pm

I agree with you TS, although it is interesting to hear about a potential new LNG plant this fall. That could boost things a little.

Still with higher interest rates looming and the highest debt per household in the country, I would be surprised to see a surge in home prices in Calgary. I tend to think a best-case scenario is flat, or perhaps an increase at the rate of inflation. Neither motivates me to rush to market.

=====================================
#62 TS on 06.26.18 at 7:26 pm

All you guys saying Calgary will be back, do you really see wages going up (they are already double the national average). And we all know what is going on with interest rates…

If there is a better case for dead money than oil inflated real estate in cow town, I don’t know what it is.

#143 IHCTD9 on 06.27.18 at 12:37 pm

#105 Its Only Money on 06.26.18 at 11:16 pm
Class action suit from thousands, with more to come from your tax dollars. RCMP faces $1.1 Billion lawsuit over bullying and harassment dating back decades. What will Trudy the feminist do for these women now?
_________

Probably pay them 10 million each.

#144 IHCTD9 on 06.27.18 at 12:51 pm

#46 MSM-Free Zone on 06.26.18 at 6:33 pm

Wait until Drug Fraud introduces his first low-taxation/high-spending provincial budget in the near future.
______________

Don’t worry about us Ontarians, after 15 long years of suffering under hard left socialists masquerading as Liberals – our skin is 4 inches thick.

#145 TurnerNation on 06.27.18 at 12:57 pm

Blacksheep you have committed many ThoughtCrimes here today. Ones which turn you into a T-Rump/Ford supporter de facto.
Welcome to Leftism 101.

#146 Maggie the Tech Writer on 06.27.18 at 1:10 pm

#88 Trojan Horse

“Women are emotional and make decisions based on emotion. Men are more practical and make decisions based on practicality.”

Horse, if you believe this, you haven’t spent much time reading the comments on this blog, which I regard as an important contributor to my on-going education about men.

The passion, the angst, the negativity, the shallow despair, the attacks on commenters, rather than on their ideas, the support for Mr. Trump… and I used to think men were rational.

My favourite memory is of the poster whose response to a modest downturn in the stock market was to ask Garth for advice on what kind of gun he should buy to protect his family.

Who is it slogs on, no matter what, cleaning the house, doing the laundry, keeping everyone fed? The practical one. Who sometimes is a man, no doubt.

#147 Musty Basement Dweller on 06.27.18 at 1:11 pm

More ACTION from our hardworking new government. One more bit of hard evidence that debt pigging out isn’t the only factor in our messed up Vancouver real estate market.
http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/b-c-government-to-release-casino-money-laundering-report

#148 IHCTD9 on 06.27.18 at 1:19 pm

#51 Ace Goodheart on 06.26.18 at 6:44 pm

The only people who disagree with immigration, are racists.

I am sorry, but that is the truth and it is about time someone says it.
______________

Don’t Pols, Dutch, Danes, Swedes, Finns, Italians, Brits, Irish, and all kinds of Slav’s etc… immigrate to Canada?

I hope I can live long enough to see a day where this simplistic reasoning has been permanently jettisoned for more rational and intellectually sound assertions.

#149 CJBob on 06.27.18 at 1:23 pm

#141 Brett in Calgary on 06.27.18 at 12:11 pm
And we all know what is going on with interest rates…
_____________________
We do? What I see is the market is split 50/50 whether rates are increasing in Canada next month and a trade war could slow the economy and reduce the chances of rate increases in the future.

I’m not saying rates aren’t going up, they might. Then again, they might not or at least not as much as some thought.

#150 Mark Baum on 06.27.18 at 1:26 pm

What happened with the OREA/Ford Effect on Realtors & Home Ownership webcast this morning? Missed it

#151 conan on 06.27.18 at 1:46 pm

Crazy Group F in the World Cup….. Sweden? I thought they were Nordic luck sucks…….. guess not.

Playing with fire.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G-EastWzxnQ

#152 IHCTD9 on 06.27.18 at 1:50 pm

#138 Shortymac on 06.27.18 at 11:13 am

Don’t blame women, blame society for not teaching women finances and making them risk-averse.
___________________________________

I think parents should be modeling a good financial acumen to the kids. My wife is passively educated in this manner. She is risk averse, but thinks long term – same as me, we have done well together.

Our kids see us and hear us talk about chequing account balances and upcoming bills, emergency fund balances and deposits, mortgage payment strategies, investment deposits, and future spending plans, Tax return maximization, and all manner of keeping expenditures low. We do it all right in front of them. I’d bet both my kids could fairly accurately list off our income, investment total, what we put in every month, how much our hydro bill is, some of the interest rates we paid when the mortgage was being paid off, and much more. They know we think investing over the long term is a necessity, that mortgages need to leave room for life and investing, and that all kinds of bills are payable.

Both of the kiddies have demonstrated good sense so far, and have a good understanding of most financial concerns that exist in the typical household.

Next step is getting the message across in a passive manner that they should not be dating anyone that does not have similar ambitions, earning potential, and demonstrated financial knowledge as them.

Horror stories everyone with kids not yet married should read:

https://talkaboutmarriage.com/financial-problems-marriage/

#153 Guy in Calgary on 06.27.18 at 2:16 pm

The downtown in Calgary is generally busier. The weekends there is quite a bit of foot traffic as well. I assume most of the people saying the city is dead are those that don’t actually live here.

#154 IHCTD9 on 06.27.18 at 2:23 pm

#31 Phil on 06.26.18 at 5:55 pm

His political views are cringe worthy but to his defense he seems to be equally negative amongst all groups. That being said, when you have a large following you do have some responsibility for the things you say and the ideas you shape into people’s minds. Hopefully people on this blog are smart enough to come up with their own thoughts/views/ideas. Just because Garth is a successful dude with a great career (outside of politics) with the inside track on real estate doesn’t mean you should believe all his world views. Thus the sarcastic shill comment.
______

Translation:

I don’t agree with Garth’s views.

I am worried that other people might agree with Garth’s views upon hearing them.

Therefore I would like Garth to shut his shill pie-hole.

#155 Stunning BC Casino money laundering video on 06.27.18 at 2:51 pm

better be some people in jail soon…..

https://twitter.com/nafeesakarim/status/1012018579426848768

#156 Ford on 06.27.18 at 3:01 pm

The new leader of Ontario has a serious problem involving $billions. Part of his platform stated he would cancel the carbon tax without doing his homework. There are large corporations in a bind because of cap and trade issues that they were involved in holding positions.

#157 LP on 06.27.18 at 3:38 pm

#145 Maggie the Tech Writer on 06.27.18 at 1:10 pm

Hey Mags

You forgot the part about paying the bills, handling all finances, keeping hubby from going into debt for new golf clubs, a newer car, another suit when he doesn’t wear the ones he has. Practical chores all and one needs to be pretty bright to handle it all.

#158 NoName on 06.27.18 at 3:38 pm

#151 IHCTD9 on 06.27.18 at 1:50 pm

Next step is getting the message across in a passive manner that they should not be dating anyone that does not have similar ambitions, earning potential, and demonstrated financial knowledge as them.

Horror stories everyone with kids not yet married should read:

https://talkaboutmarriage.com/financial-problems-marriage/

—-

My new book just came in, first section deals with meariage and devorce topic.

section 1, chapter 5.
https://imgur.com/a/29qikM0

#159 young & foolish on 06.27.18 at 3:45 pm

Rooooar! ….. watch out Blog Dogs … the bears are coming out of the woods (7% or -7% this year?)

#160 Ubul on 06.27.18 at 3:46 pm

#142 IHCTD9 on 06.27.18 at 12:37 pm

#105 Its Only Money on 06.26.18 at 11:16 pm
Class action suit from thousands, with more to come from your tax dollars. RCMP faces $1.1 Billion lawsuit over bullying and harassment dating back decades. What will Trudy the feminist do for these women now?
_________

Probably pay them 10 million each.

Unless he will be out by then, falling into his own sword. #hetoo

#161 Smartalox on 06.27.18 at 4:57 pm

So the big report is out on the River Rock Laundromat.

People of Ontario, the party is coming to you! In December 2017, the organization that owns the River Rock casino in Richmond BC, Great Canadian Gaming, won a process to take over ownership of 4 facilities from Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corp (in addition to other gambling operations they have there already).

Initially, in August 2017, the Ontario PCs called for the process to be halted due to the money laundering allegations being made out in BC.

Since then, the party turfed its leader that made the call (under a cloud of remembered allegations that proved hazy at best), then hurriedly elected a new one – one that had previously displayed some remarkable feats of ‘ethical flexibility’, a populist that was swept into office in the general election.

Will the (new) Ontario PCs renew their call to prevent GCG from taking control of OLGs gambling operations? Will they enact stricter controls than BC, and protect them from tampering?

Only time will tell.

In the mean time, read this and weep:
http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/b-c-government-to-release-casino-money-laundering-report?video_autoplay=true

Outgunned, indeed

#162 Civil War on 06.27.18 at 5:06 pm

The monitoring of US websites are talking about a soft civil war brewing, because the angry mobs continue to roll. You wouldn’t want to spend a summer vacation south of the border now. Keep your dollars here instead, and plan accordingly. Why not a train trip out of Toronto? Go to Montreal for a few days, and then on the Ocean train to Halifax for a longer adventure looking around. This train has many cars such as the dome, service, park, dining, and sleeper cars – get the sleep plus one, or the cabin for two. Then you could fly back.

#163 Ace Goodheart on 06.27.18 at 5:16 pm

RE: #147 IHCTD9 on 06.27.18 at 1:19 pm

______________

Don’t Pols, Dutch, Danes, Swedes, Finns, Italians, Brits, Irish, and all kinds of Slav’s etc… immigrate to Canada?

I hope I can live long enough to see a day where this simplistic reasoning has been permanently jettisoned for more rational and intellectually sound assertions.

I have not heard a lot of complaints about Irish or British or Polish immigration.

However I do hear quite a bit of complaining about Immigration by other groups of people from other parts of the world.

People need to think very carefully about why they do not want people to immigrate and consider which people they do not want. British people immigrate here all the time and no one complains. But if Syrians try to do the same thing, or Chinese, or Koreans, or someone from the Congo, wow it is a totally different reaction you get.

I mean, they want to build a border wall with Mexico because apparently Americans do not want Hispanic people becoming citizens. I do not hear complaints about the occasional white person who might slip across the border undocumented from Mexico. But a Hispanic family? Lock them up! (quite literally, and put the children in cages).

Arguments around immigration always end up just showing racist attitudes. Keep the Chinese out of Vancouver. Keep the Hispanic people out of Texas. We don’t want Syrians in Toronto. It’s always the same. Same old thing, over and over and over again……

#164 dakkie on 06.27.18 at 5:35 pm

London House Prices Fall 1.9% In Quarter – Bubble Bursting?

http://www.investmentwatchblog.com/london-house-prices-fall-1-9-in-quarter-bubble-bursting/

#165 Tony on 06.27.18 at 5:39 pm

Re: #147 IHCTD9 on 06.27.18 at 1:19 pm

There’s a vast difference between foreigners and immigrants. Problem being none of the foreigners will come to Canada while all the immigrants are only too happy to come to this country.

#166 Tony on 06.27.18 at 5:58 pm

Re: #108 Mrs. Fool on 06.26.18 at 11:36 pm

She should do the smart thing and just hand the keys over to the bank. Others in Calgary just don’t get it either. Selling at a loss beats putting money into something that can only keep on falling in value.

#167 Tony on 06.27.18 at 6:22 pm

Re: #29 Dusty on 06.26.18 at 5:47 pm

In Vancouver it means saving up for the next 90 years just to afford a down payment on a house. In Vancouver you have to start saving at age 10 and live to 100.

#168 Where's The Money Greedo? on 06.27.18 at 9:40 pm

DELETED

#169 Where's The Money Greedo? on 06.28.18 at 1:32 am

Re; Re: #108 Mrs. Fool on 06.26.18 at 11:36 pm

She should do the smart thing and just hand the keys over to the bank. Others in Calgary just don’t get it either. Selling at a loss beats putting money into something that can only keep on falling in value.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
I was glancing over the foreclosures in Calgary and just the maintenance fees for 30-40 year old, $200k and under places were over $500/month.
Who would pay that? My guess is NO ONE hehe….
Dump it already!