The mission

It’s possible I may have mentioned I lost my mind and ran for public office. Twice, 17 years apart. The first time stepping onto the floor of the House of Commons I was awestruck, compliant and relatively useless. The second I was blasé, defiant and on a mission. That, of course, led to disaster. At the heart of my demise were two things: blogging and mortgages.

In 1988, nobody had a blog. In 2005 I was the first MP who decided to use digital communications to bring political decisions to voters, and vice versa. In Ottawa everyone hated that idea. Involve citizens in government? Was this guy Turner completely off his meds? Conflict ensued. The prime minister threatened me. I was turfed from my party, stripped of my nice office and assigned a seat in the House so far back the Speaker had to squint.

But I didn’t shut up. Even about the mortgages.

Before my ouster, shaming and mashing, I sat on the Finance Committee, an all-party body designed to study, support or vet legislation destined to impact Canadians’ lives. The big idea of the day: allow people to buy houses with 0% down and mortgages 40 years long which would be backstopped by CMHC. It was 2006, and the American real estate market was starting to roll over – murdered in part by billions in mortgages loaned to people who should never have received them. Zero-down purchases, interest-only payments and teaser rates had helped inflate a housing gasbag destined to pffft. Why would we want the same crap up here?

No government MPs on the committee shared my concern (because the prime minister wanted this passed pronto) so I got the opposition guys to support the idea of a hearing to study the changes. Witnesses came and the likely consequences of the proposal became clear through their testimony – a booming market would become a bubble, inflated by easy money and speculation. Danger.

No matter, the government MPs all lined up. The measure passed into law. Real estate prices started to soar. The PM exacted his revenge on me. And I wrote a book called “Greater Fool, the Troubled Future of Real Estate,” to warn people, before being eviscerated in the next election. Two years later, facing a crisis in affordability, the government rescinded the 0%-40 law. Too late, as we headed into the financial crisis and a collapse in mortgage rates.

Well, I was reminded of this episode by Calgary MP Tom Kmiec, a Conservative, who days ago tried to get the Finance Committee to conduct a study into the effects (so far) of the B20 mortgage stress test. As you know, anyone taking out a new mortgage or switching lenders upon renewal has to overcome an income stress test, regardless of the size of their downpayment or the amount of equity they own in their home. The test is the higher of 5.34% or the rate offered by their lender plus 2%.

What do we know so far about B20’s impact?

Sales are down in 80% of markets across Canada. The mortgage brokers say the stress test has reduced the amount people can borrow by about 20%. Royal LePage says first-time buyers have lost an average of $40,000 in purchasing power. The level of real estate activity has dropped by the most in seven years ago far in 2018 (the stress test arrived in January), and overall borrowing has fallen. Mortgage loans dropped $2 billion in the first 90 days of the year, and $13.7 billion which was the lowest since 2014

Most consequential, real estate has become less affordable for young people. By chopping the amount the moisters can borrow, B20 increased competition for lower-priced properties (namely condos) and threw the brakes on move-up buyers. So six months after the test arrived, condos cost a lot more and detached houses have dropped bigly – but are still out of the reach of most in urban areas.

So did the stress test have unintended consequences in the marketplace? Is it making renewers spend more since they can no longer shop around when their loans comes due? And with almost 50% of all mortgages expiring in 2018, was this the worst time possible to enact such a thing?

Finally, was this all a sop to the banks? After all, it was the brainchild not of CMHC or the federal government, but OSFI – the regulator of financial institutions – which is mandated with protecting the banks, not ensuring people can afford houses.

Well, we won’t know. Not now, at least. Kmiec was stonewalled by government MPs who voted as a block against the idea of a hearing. Some said they are too busy worrying about next Spring’s budget and others claimed there’s not enough data to reach any conclusions. “It tells me they’re not taking it seriously,” said the jilted politician.

Perhaps B20 is just what we need right now to cold-shower the entire market. But maybe forcing people qualify for mortgages at almost 5.5% is extreme. Perchance this rule is causing long-term disruption by making entry-level housing cost more and shutting first-timers out, exacerbating the divide between the haves and the horny.

But politics is a team sport. The red guys don’t care what the blue or the orange guys think. No government can ever admit to making a mistake. And pesky little MPs who think they must speak up for their constituents are destined to be roadkill.

I still wear the tread marks. Proudly.

173 comments ↓

#1 dakkie on 06.17.18 at 4:51 pm

Next Mortgage Default Tsunami Isn’t Going to Drown Big Banks but “Shadow Banks”

http://www.investmentwatchblog.com/next-mortgage-default-tsunami-isnt-going-to-drown-big-banks-but-shadow-banks/

#2 For those about to flop... on 06.17.18 at 4:53 pm

I just put this one up on my Pink Snow blog.

Recent sale report/ Realtor assistance needed.

Zolo is showing condos negative year over year for the first time in a long time that I can remember.

Let’s see if these guys were impacted in any way.

This condo sold 20 days ago.

Picked up for 1.01 in June 2017 ,they were asking 999k before the sale.

Doctor,doctor give me the news…

M43BC

1607 950 Cambie Street, Vancouver .paid 1.01June 2017 ass 1.00

Apr 17:$1,099,000
May 18: $999,900
Change: – 99100.00 -9%

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/950-cambie-street/1607

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAwNDZEMA==

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Feel free to make a donation.

Flop For Fox Fund…

http://www.terryfox.org/get-involved/ways-to-give/

#3 Penny Henny on 06.17.18 at 4:54 pm

This one is for Jimmy.

#4 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.17.18 at 4:55 pm

“mortgages at 5.5% are extreme….”
+++++++
Remember the early 1980’s when mortgages were at 19.75%?

The 1990’s when they were 10%?

My God how much money do people owe when 5.5% is “extreme”

#5 Debtslavecreator on 06.17.18 at 5:03 pm

Canada’s economy and financial system is a farce. Canadian FIs are able to issue about twice the amount of loans for the same level of capital compared to US banks and can determine what assumptions to apply for risks and on when to define what’s a defaulted loan
This means the public, despite being fooled into thinking they’re getting richer, is signing very real contractual ageeements based on imaginary asset values pumped up by the debt counterfeiting operation
This allows the direct transfer of wealth from the masses to thevelites and government as nominal home prices and rents are rising far above the economy’s underlying rate of growth driven by investment, productivity , wage growth and labour force growth etc
The economy is slowly being loaded up with non self liquidating debt and the middle and lower classes being decimated
Look at publicly available chart an u will see residential investment as a % of GDP rising to over 7 % while investment in machinary and capital assets steadily declining to under 4.5% of GDP
Canada’s economy is false prosperity and a classic neoliberal kleptocracy
Unfortunately the rate of growth in credit has just stalled and we are only in the 2nd or so inning of what will be a devastating economic climate over the next 5 years or so
Most of this blame lies with borrowers who chose to gamble but government intervention was a critical enabler
Their actions allowed all this junk credit to be mid priced and hence issued in amounts far greater than what anybody would have allowed

#6 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.17.18 at 5:08 pm

@#84 Gravy Train
“I’m a retired accountant”
+++++
Its a pity you cant count.
Taxpayers in Ontario are already subsidizing three major public employee pension plans by almost 50%….

Its outrageous to expect unpensioned private sector taxpayers to pay for 50% of Teachers and public servants pension plans….outrageous.

https://www.google.ca/url?url=https://www.fraserinstitute.org/article/public-sector-pension-reform-less-advertised&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ved=0ahUKEwiS1vO6y9vbAhUlCjQIHXyfC2MQFgg3MAc&usg=AOvVaw1e2lTosMbHDWkTrvulBpei

#7 saskatoon on 06.17.18 at 5:13 pm

#6 crowdedelevatorfartz

it isn’t an expectation…it is the initiation of force.

#8 Howard on 06.17.18 at 5:16 pm

Saint Bernards! Such gentle giants. Best breed. You need a mortgage to feed them though.

#9 For those about to flop... on 06.17.18 at 5:18 pm

Pink Pollen falling in Delta.

Hang in there Crowdie ,only a handful more days of Pink Pollen falling and then we look for Pink Lemonade Stands as the summer starts.

These guys purchased this place in Delta in October 2016 for 1.15 and even though it is assessed at 1.27 ,they are struggling.

The new ask is 1.18 and they need to find a way to make this work as soon as possible.

They live in a Delta and the market is flooding…

M43BC

211 52nd st,Delta .paid 1.15 October 2016 ass 1.27

Mar 16:$1,250,000
Jun 16: $1,189,000
Change: – 61000.00 -5%

https://www.zolo.ca/delta-real-estate/211-52-street

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDA1VkxRRA==

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Feel free to make a donation.

Flop For Fox Fund…

http://www.terryfox.org/get-involved/ways-to-give/

#10 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 06.17.18 at 5:18 pm

But maybe forcing people qualify for mortgages at almost 5.5% is extreme. Perchance this rule is causing long-term disruption by making entry-level housing cost more and shutting first-timers out, exacerbating the divide between the haves and the horny.
……………

I qualified for my first mortgage on my first house at 14% in 1985. What is the big f’n deal now at 5.5 % ?

#11 ShawnG in TO on 06.17.18 at 5:23 pm

amateur landlords are going to sharks to buy the condos they can’t afford
amateurs are going to get wiped and taking sharks down with them
i’m ok with that
(as long as my tax money aren’t going to pay for it)

#12 Your Vote on 06.17.18 at 5:27 pm

The reason to vote in your assigned polling district is to elect the person representing you in Parliament, but look what happens. Your party wins and the person you voted for is on the team. The leader has an agenda which is often hidden at first. All members of the party must comply to the party line as directed by the leader. In effect the member representing your concerns has been made null and void. He can no longer function as your personal representative, and if he does, will be threatened, punished, or tossed aside.

#13 Reality is stark on 06.17.18 at 5:30 pm

Create a housing bubble and live off the proceeds. This is how our new politicians pay for dubious programs and are rewarded with idiotic pensions.
How about preparing 70% of our young for technology jobs instead of influencing them to become social justice warriors.
Kathleen Wynne, Justin, Horwath and their ilk are imbeciles.
The big 5 make a bundle on the bubble and the government rakes in half of their profits. They jack up property taxes to suck in more from housing. They get the CRA to look back and make sure they grab any money they missed from housing gains. They double land transfer taxes and hit builders with additional levies. They get their income tax from the high earners in the sector.
In the meantime they created nothing and now the citizens find out that they have been duped.
Too bad we can’t file criminal charges against these politicians who knew full well that they were raping the people due to the low level of financial literacy of the average Canadian dolt.

#14 TalkingPie on 06.17.18 at 5:33 pm

Even post-stress test, I was able to qualify for more house than what I consider responsible. $70k income, I preapproved for a $360k house with 20% down. The only reason I went for it is because my common-law girlfriend makes $45k in self-employed income which the banks don’t recognize. Even so, 3 times gross income is near the limit of what I feel is reasonable for a family to spend.

I know that $360k doesn’t get you anything in Toronto or Vancouver, but in my opinion it’s more than what a responsible person of my income can afford. If the stress test throttles back the amount of people borrowing beyond that – and in turn forces house prices lower – that sounds pretty good to me.

#15 SoggyShorts on 06.17.18 at 5:35 pm

#10 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 06.17.18 at 5:18 pm

I qualified for my first mortgage on my first house at 14% in 1985. What is the big f’n deal now at 5.5 % ?

**************************
Just guessing here, but maybe the difference between a house that cost you 3x salary @14% interest was less than one at 10x salary at 5.5%?

#16 Cohen on 06.17.18 at 5:43 pm

Garth, why did you delete my commentary response to Mr. Elderman regarding this Case law?
http://canlii.ca/t/hrch7

Please advise. Everyone knows how ludicrous the HRTO Tribunal cases are when it comes to social justice causes.

Sincerely, Bernard Cohen
Partner

Because it demeaned this blog (which takes a lot). – Garth

#17 akashic record on 06.17.18 at 5:59 pm

Garth, maybe you have the true insight: what was the real reason for pushing politicians the 0% downpayment, 40 yrs mortgage, both in the US and Canada?

It was obvious that it enabled people to take out mortgages who should have never qualified?

The hearts of politicians don’t just melt overnight, waking up that “all the people are entitled to home ownership”.

Was it pressure from the banks?

I can’t see a PM or a President being able to force banks to loan money against the will of the bankers. Even if some of those loans are backstopped by governments.

Do you know the real story?

#18 Camille on 06.17.18 at 6:00 pm

What doesn’t kill you makes you stronger. Congratulations. “Beware of Mr. Turner.”

#19 TalkingPie on 06.17.18 at 6:11 pm

#10 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 06.17.18 at 5:18 pm

I qualified for my first mortgage on my first house at 14% in 1985. What is the big f’n deal now at 5.5 % ?

*********************************************

The big f’n deal can be found by comparing the purchase price of your first home to what a starter home sells for now. In most markets you’ll find that prices have far outpaced wage increases. Lower interest rates make for higher prices and vice versa.

The house my parents bought in the Montreal suburbs for $75k in 1983 when interest rates were high would easily go for $500k now. Do you think that average wages went up 567% in the ensuing 35 years?

#20 For those about to flop... on 06.17.18 at 6:12 pm

Dude,where’s my market?

O.k I will do something different for a change since people are talking about 5.5% mortgage repayments and how everything is so stretched these days.

Check out one of my Pink Snow cases and see how you would like to be them at the moment.

The house is basically assessed at 3 million less than ask and to get a deal done on a lot of detached houses now you need to be in and around minus 10% from assessment to get action.

They picked this place up for 11.38 million in January 2016 when Cabbage Patch Clark was still in charge.

They are asking for 12.38 and are what most people would call hooped.

But now let’s get to the main point of this post.

We don’t now how much they put down or the details of the mortgage but they are most likely in a similar position and are looking for someone to come in and If ,and that’s a big If ,they could rustle up 20% that is a 2.47m down payment with a 9.91 million mortgage.

Monthly mortgage payments….43k

And that is at the lowest rate on the zolo calculator of 2.25%,5 year variable.

If you go to the current highest one they have at 3.94%,10 year fixed, it spat out the number of 51k a month.

I don’t remember what happened after that as I blacked out…

M43BC

6349 Elm st, Vancouver.Paid 11.38 January 2016 ass 9.23 2017

Asking 12.38

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/6349-elm-street

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAwMFRKUw

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Feel free to make a donation.

Flop For Fox Fund…

http://www.terryfox.org/get-involved/ways-to-give/

#21 Lost...but not leased on 06.17.18 at 6:14 pm

#2 Flop

Request you dig up more info on multi-family/strata//condos

We know SFH has been impacted…..we need to save the FOMO/BOM/Moisters etc from making a bad move…as I have noted numerous times we have an unprecedented inventory of strata (currently and in the future)that can only end up in a major disaster .

#22 Stone on 06.17.18 at 6:18 pm

Perhaps B20 is just what we need right now to cold-shower the entire market. But maybe forcing people qualify for mortgages at almost 5.5% is extreme. Perchance this rule is causing long-term disruption by making entry-level housing cost more and shutting first-timers out, exacerbating the divide between the haves and the horny.

———

I don’t see this as extreme. The distortions currently experienced at the low end of the real estate market are temporary as they are the last desperate throes of those trying to secure themselves an overpriced residential property (note that I don’t say home).

This will all eventually normalize. Once it does, and as interest rates continue to rise, so will the real estate market adjust downward, both at the bottom end all the way up to the top end.

B20 was and is a sound and wise decision however the full effect will likely be felt in years versus months. Eventually, the sheeple (yes, even the sheeple) will come to realize that residential real estate is a depreciating liability (not asset) and not a speculative asset class.

When that realization will hit, the true value of residential real estate will be known and affordability based on income earned will return.

#23 North Burnaby on 06.17.18 at 6:22 pm

Gartho, do you expect the housing market in Vancouver to bounce back anytime soon?

#24 Paul on 06.17.18 at 6:23 pm

B20’s impact, been getting calls from mortgage brokers looking for funds. Offering 7/8 percent 60% advance shaky credit but solid equity the the banks won’t fund them.

#25 YYZer on 06.17.18 at 6:26 pm

In the short run the stress test may have increased competition as well as prices for condos and lower priced townhouses and semis. But as high end homes drop in prices, as they have begun to do, the others have to drop them too. It all takes time. B20 has at least slowed down the insane run up in prices and FOMO.

#26 Fascism on 06.17.18 at 6:33 pm

Is when corporations and government get together for a like minded result that benefits them both, against the best interests of the citizens. The reason the mortgage rules were changed was a mixed bag, as who benefited in the end. The banks gained by expanding their portfolios and selling new products that they sold. The government benefited with the increased economic activity looking good to be re-elected. The citizens got sucked into the emotional charge called greed, and in the end were left holding the bag.

#27 millmech on 06.17.18 at 6:33 pm

No wages didn’t go up but rates went way down, go to a mortgage calculator and do the math at 12%-15% and a TDS of 32% see what you could afford and also go back and see what the wages were back then too and use them in your calculations.
Heck go back far enough and you can gripe at how the US bought the state of Alaska for $6,000,000(we should all be able to afford/entitled to our own States now)

#28 AB Boxster on 06.17.18 at 6:40 pm

Talked to my American relative on mortgages.

They were shocked that in progressive Canada that we cannot get a 25 year mortgage.

They are selling in California and leaving the commie state to go to live in Texas. Flight of the middle class out of CA due to higher taxes, no water, and never ending regulation.

Oh yeah, in Texas, 2500+ sq foot homes on five acres.
Beautiful home.
325K.

We are royally ripped off in our country.

#29 A Yank in BC on 06.17.18 at 6:40 pm

Can’t help but wonder how much more affordable housing would be for everyone, rich or poor, had B20 been in effect all along.

#30 Reynolds531 on 06.17.18 at 6:51 pm

After many years working in finance I no longer ask why we don’t teach investment, credit, personal finance in school. I’ve resigned to the fact that those in charge simply don’t want the sheep to know enough to protect themselves.

#31 islander on 06.17.18 at 7:00 pm

We all know that this scenario has gone on waaaay too long.
In YVR the chickens have come home to roost as people realize that close friends and family are leaving town, never to return. Goodbye grandchildren – unless you fancy sharing your big expensive house with numerous relatives!
Neighbourhoods have been gutted and small businesses are struggling mightily to stay afloat. (Where have all their employees gone??)
Real estate agents are still selling condos, investors are still buying, but you can’t build a functioning community out of empty boxes and fly in fly out ‘citizens’.

#32 Dolce Vita on 06.17.18 at 7:17 pm

#23 North Burnaby

Read #22 Stone, 2nd paragraph.

He/she has it.
_____________________________

I agree Harper’s move was wrong with 2018 rear view 20/20 hindsight mirror.

Anyone with an appreciation for RE knew a bubble was coming as a result of 0/40 and ultimately the wrong thing to do…though, they were desperate times.

The choice was a RE bubble and an indebted nation vs. an all out economic catastrophe which Canada avoided vs. what happened to the Americans.

Which would have been worse?

I say the RE bubble and debt at least give people a chance to make economic amends.

In an all out recession, on verge depression…no amends are possible…economic ruin the end game.

You are wrong. 0/40 was implemented before the credit crisis. It was not a desperate measure, Just a lameass one. – Garth

#33 Keith on 06.17.18 at 7:19 pm

I am quite concerned about the current low unemployment numbers, and the persistent lousy fiscal situation federally and too often provincially.

I fear that the unemployment number is another scam, much like the inflation number. The government should shift to an employment number for those between the ages of 25 and 60, a much better measure.

With low unemployment, the governments should be swimming in revenue, and choices. Sadly these days employment pays so much less than it used to, income tax revenue will continue to be a huge problem. Big cuts or deficits will have to continue with an aging population.

#34 Nova Johnny on 06.17.18 at 7:22 pm

Your story is exactly why we should do away with party politics. The current system does not serve the best interest of the people as was intended. And while i’m at it, polling should be eliminated also, it skews the weak minded.

#35 Spectacle on 06.17.18 at 7:34 pm

Cohen on 06.17.18 at 5:43 pm
Garth, why did you delete my commentary……………

……….. Please advise. Everyone knows how ludicrous the HRTO Tribunal cases are when it comes to social justice causes.

Sincerely, Bernard Cohen
Partner

Because it demeaned this blog (which takes a lot). – Garth

Gosh Garth, had to dry my right eye after that one. Hope you don’t get a bill and a copy right notification on that.

#36 It Started in Vancouver on 06.17.18 at 7:35 pm

And will end in the small communities of BC.

An SFD listed in Ladner in the 800ks this past week that would have listed for 1.4M in 2016.

The view counts on classified ads outside of Vancouver in Kelowna are almost nil. 200-300 views per recent ad posted versus 4,000-5,000 views per recent ad in 2016.

The last half of the year is when the real B20 data will show up. No need to worry about house price appreciation for the rest of the year.

But we all know BC assessment will flat-line and pump those properties that never caught up with the wave of capital that spread throughout BC in 2015 to make things look “healthy”

And this is when the economy is firing on all cylinders. Anyone can get a job right now in BC.

The house pumping policies were a trap that Canadian walked right into and collectively could not resist. It pays to know these policies and their effects in advance because the only way to survive them is to game them and make money.

#37 X on 06.17.18 at 7:41 pm

“But maybe forcing people qualify for mortgages at almost 5.5% is extreme.”

Hasn’t the historical 5 year fixed averaged out to around 6%…so making people qualify for less than that doesn’t seem unreasonable.

We aren’t even 6 months in on these new rules, so I am not sure how accurate a study would be at this time, it would reveal a short term trend though, however we already know that result. Given that the B20 was implemented a little too late imo, and the RE market was already at stupid levels.

#38 Vancouver Market on 06.17.18 at 7:41 pm

Will the Vancouver market bounce back?

Does dropping a suitcase full of cash make a noise in the forest?

As long as Eby is slowing the money laundering Vancouver will continue to sink in value. In fact, Eby is about to up his game on the RE component of the money laundering it. And this is bad news for prices.

I couldn’t be happier for those who earn an honest living and expect an honest cost of living expense in return instead of being robbed of it due to crime and the lack of enforcement under Crusty Clark who is now aiding the law firms who orchestrate the funny money deals.

#39 Cabinet Minister on 06.17.18 at 7:42 pm

This is what is called a flashback, that spins a political tale with a message. Never trust a Finance Minister who has his breakfast in public eating with his hands. This is a sign of character that has no conscience or self respect for himself or others, and eventually will end up badly for the citizens.

#40 Terrie Rolph on 06.17.18 at 7:42 pm

“I qualified for my first mortgage on my first house at 14% in 1985. What is the big f’n deal now at 5.5 % ?”

I think it could be because in 1985 in Canada, the price of an entry level house (old, 2 bedroom bungalowish sort of entry level) was priced at about 3 times an entry level buyer’s gross annual salary. Today, it’s closer to 13
times their salary.

#41 Spectacle on 06.17.18 at 7:43 pm

#23 North Burnaby on 06.17.18 at 6:22 pm
Gartho, do you expect the housing market in Vancouver to bounce back anytime soon?

——————————::———————–
I’ve got this one::

Yes, this time Burnaby is so different from every other state, province, city on Earth…….

You mean you haven’t been snapping those properties up in Burnaby? Whoa…., so missed that memo.

Ps:: Garth, If you did run again now, it would probably alter the landscape of financial politics in Canada for 100 years. Can only Dream of your tweets and blog posts! Do it, please!

#42 Poor Lower Mainland on 06.17.18 at 7:47 pm

Full of debt serfs and unhappy people who will go out of their way to see you stumble. Try merging in traffic there. I guess when you are loaded up the eyeballs in debt that rubbing someone out into the ditch is one way to vent.

Delta BC getting hammered with values dropping.

Tsawwassen still a bit delusional too, but starting to get chipped away at the shins. They smoke a lot of weed down there and have swinger parties. Garden gnomes sold out at the hardware stores.

#43 conan on 06.17.18 at 7:50 pm

Did anyone think that Mexico was going to beat Germany?

https://youtu.be/9FFexPAXPcw?t=15

#44 Doghouse Dweller on 06.17.18 at 7:51 pm

#30 Reynolds531
simply don’t want the sheep to know enough to protect themselves.
——————————————————————————-

“You know what they want? Obedient workers ­ people who are just smart enough to run the machines and do the paperwork but just dumb enough to passively accept all these increasingly shittier jobs with the lower pay, the longer hours, reduced benefits, the end of overtime and the vanishing pension that disappears the minute you go to collect it.”
~ the late George Carlin

Never ever heard a financial guy say sell , they are just not programmed that way. Just buy ,buy ,buy, and never exit an asset class till your hauled away in a Hearst.

#45 Sebee on 06.17.18 at 7:59 pm

It is amazing that in this day and age we agree to turn over our decision making to politicians.

Phones and computers are safe enough and good enough for us to bank with and conduct business and billions in transactions each hour.

God forbid we should keep our ability to decide and render politicians useless with the same technology, right?

#46 georgist on 06.17.18 at 8:02 pm

#10 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 06.17.18 at 5:18 pm

I qualified for my first mortgage on my first house at 14% in 1985. What is the big f’n deal now at 5.5 % ?

——

You are innumerate.

1. house prices have increased far more than wages

2. higher rates (and wage inflation) see the original debt eroded by inflation

3. the price of the house as a % of wages was far, far lower then meaning the principal was more easily paid down

Someone as innumerate as you would have a rubbish job today and you’d be on the bread line. Your generation had less global competition and your peers were retarded by lead leading to a reduced IQ.

#47 akashic record on 06.17.18 at 8:04 pm

#17 akashic record on 06.17.18 at 5:59 pm

Do you know the real story?

—-

I didn’t think so.

Though that’s the only thing that really matters about this whole “mission”.

#48 april on 06.17.18 at 8:07 pm

#23 – Of course not…LM is on a long slide down.

#49 fishman on 06.17.18 at 8:13 pm

So right about MP’s being roadkill. I was a Manning Reformer & bagman for John Cummins. We had so much faith that John’s years on the Fisheries Standing Committee & then Chairman as Reform & Alliance opposition member would translate into salvation for our Pacific fisheries. If we could persevere long enough to get power.
How wrong we were. The Control Freak never spoke to John once for the full 9 years he was in caucus. Banished to Siberia even before Garth. We paid our own delegates way to Ottawa & were laughed at for our troubles. Now the Pacific Fishing Industry is in collapse. If this Adam’s sockeye run doesn’t show this summer that’s it. B.C. salmon done for at least in my lifetime. DFO’s trying desperately to hand the resource off to the Indians to get out from under the coming catastrophe. Wash, repeat like the cod collapse in Newfie land. Kill the messenger (local MP’s) cause you don’t like the message. There’s going to be sh*t to pay out here real soon.

#50 Kurt on 06.17.18 at 8:16 pm

akashic record – why? It’s fairly simple. Voters, as a group, favor the incumbent when they feel like their economic circumstances are improving. This was simply buying votes with the voter’s money, but with the money grab hidden by having CMHC take on the risk associated with the mortgages. That way the government could claim that it cost the taxpayer nothing – of course, CMHC is ultimately backstopped by the taxpayers, so if the risk was realized, it would cost the taxpayer plenty. Garth labelled the policy as “lame”, but he is too kind. It was crooked and gutless. Unfortunately, the Canadian public *likes* crooked and gutless – that’s why we keep getting it, regardless whether the color is red, blue, orange or something else.

#51 Ron on 06.17.18 at 8:24 pm

Coming from the States, I’m a bit surprised how skeptical and ignorant Canadians are of stock market investing. It seems like real estate is the only asset class worthy of investment, so it doesn’t surprise me that buyers continue to pile into the low-end despite all the red flags.

Is it all just vanity? If only balanced portfolios came with granite and hardwood. Maybe we can start a trend of portfolio parties where you invite your friends over to show off your index funds…

#52 bubu on 06.17.18 at 8:29 pm

In other words, guys be prepared… next year if the cons win the elections, they will remove B-20 2%, lower the interest rate and introduce again 0% and 40years.. buy now when you still can afford something….

#53 crossbordershopper on 06.17.18 at 8:31 pm

life is about playing along to getting along. we can all fight against the machine but its hard and they dont really hand out a lot of trophies for it.
i remember giving good idea when i was working and tried to save the company some money, wow was i told to be quiet. i was nieve, i though in the end everyone would win. the truth is, everyone is in it for themelves, people, governements, companies etc.
garth didnt want to toe the line, no probllem, get another bearded guy from milton. there just monkies in the back clappng on demand anyway. why does canada have like 330 members for so few people and america has like 540 for like ten times the population.
more importantly, mortgage deductibility and low tax rates in american as well as a low dollar, everyone knows trudeau will drift our dollar below 70.
with all this , i have no idea why anyone, would still be here, a lifetime of higher taxes, high real estate which is after tax dollars, high costs everywhere for stuff, and they give you this coloured plastic money omg.
its 3 years people from start to finish the b1 visa then change of status its 3 years and couple grand.
anyway, canada is very controlled country, i dont know why people are frustrated by that, did you think it was free. Canada is not America. i had trouble finding my way in canada, in the usa, omg, it was so easy. people actually buy, what you arent going to squeeze my margin to the bone, you actually want to buy some.
in canada, since everyone is basically poor, and kinda smart, well, let me think about it, shop around ,whats your best price. no tax, cash , everything for a deal.
i found the us much easier and better to do business.
but find out for yourself and your personal situation.

#54 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.17.18 at 8:31 pm

@#44 Doghouse Dweller
“till your hauled away in a Hearst.’
++++

Would that be a William Randolph Hearst or a Patty Hearst that my twitching corpse is laid out in?

Only the real hearse knows for sure.

By the way I have four winter tars I took off my truck that are for sale….interested?

#55 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.17.18 at 8:48 pm

@#49 fishman
“There’s going to be sh*t to pay out here real soon.”
++++

Total agreement.
But the feds will pump billions into new coast guard/fisheries enforcement boats.
Not to mention the growing anger at the foreign owned”fish farms” spreading sea lice into the wild juvenile salmon.
One wonders when the fishermen, the natives and the majority of voters deand the end of fish farming…….will the politicians still accept lobbyist money from fish farms and deny there is a problem?

#56 Jimmy on 06.17.18 at 8:49 pm

Re: #3 Penny Henny

Thanks! Jimmy still number one when necessary.
Too busy watching SM live on Periscope.

#57 Mike on 06.17.18 at 8:51 pm

Just a lameass one. – Garth

Lame ass. Two words

#58 yvr_lurker on 06.17.18 at 8:52 pm

I don’t see how the stress test is not a good idea, when combined with other avenues to curtail speculation. By having the stress test, families hopefully will not impale themselves on the stake when interest rates rise begin their march back up to long time averages (as Garth always warns people that interest rates will revert back up and people can be pickled in debt). So indeed entry level housing with the stress test is “more unaffordable” initially for locals. Now if the Gov’t actively tries to curtail speculation in the market, especially foreign dudes and shadow flipping on condos (by the overseas and local markets), then the “demand” for condos should decrease, and hopefully the prices of entry level condos decrease as the interest rate rises. Give it time; In Vancouver it has been the wild west since 2005 with zero oversight or controls. Let’s see where we are in 3.5 years from now (in YVR) when the next election unfolds. It is complete BS to say at such an early stage how the new regulations are not working, things are not more affordable, etc… Just give it some time for the balloon to unwind.

#59 Give a mortgage to anyone on 06.17.18 at 8:59 pm

I totally support the B20 tests even though I am a home owner in Canada. About 5 years ago, I narrowly missed buying a house because other buyers had their offer accepted first. A week later, the house was back on the market. My realtor explained the purchaser’s financing had fallen through. Had I “won” a bidding war for that property, I would have paid a higher price because of other bidders who should not have been in the market.

#60 theoryAndPractice on 06.17.18 at 9:03 pm

Dictionary time with help of google ;

ex·traor·di·nar·y
ikˈstrôrd(ə)nˌerē,ˌekstrəˈôrdnˌerē/
adjective
adjective: extraordinary; adjective: extra-ordinary

1.
very unusual or remarkable.
“the extraordinary plumage of the male”
synonyms: remarkable, exceptional, amazing, astonishing, astounding, sensational, stunning, incredible, unbelievable, phenomenal; striking, outstanding, momentous, impressive, singular, memorable, unforgettable, unique, noteworthy;
out of the ordinary, unusual, uncommon, rare, surprising;
informalfantastic, terrific, tremendous, stupendous, awesome;

#61 45north on 06.17.18 at 9:13 pm

Calgary MP Tom Kmiec, a Conservative, days ago tried to get the Finance Committee to conduct a study into the effects of the B20 mortgage stress test.

Finally, was this all a sop to the banks? After all, it was the brainchild not of CMHC or the federal government, but OSFI – the regulator of financial institutions – which is mandated with protecting the banks, not ensuring people can afford houses.</i?

this was a sop to the banks. It virtually guarantees that the banks will do okay: new mortgages will do well and existing mortgages will renew at a modest increase.

So did the stress test have unintended consequences in the marketplace? Is it making renewers spend more since they can no longer shop around when their loans come due? And with almost 50% of all mortgages expiring in 2018, was this the worst time possible to enact such a thing?

my feeling is the stress test is squeezing the middle class and it’s too bad that Tom Kmiec couldn’t get the Finance Committee to do the study. We’re getting highly filtered information: we know sales are down because the real estate boards say they are; we know the amount people can borrow is down because the mortgage brokers say it is. What about the promise of data-driven policy?

Worse, it seems to me, that it is in the vital interest of the government, to know what is going on in the GTA. I mean one of the big reasons Doug Ford was elected as Premier of Ontario was the middle class in the GTA was being squeezed. With a federal election coming up next year, you would think that the government would want a little more precision in its knowledge base.

#62 45north on 06.17.18 at 9:15 pm

DebtSlaveCreator: The economy is slowly being loaded up with non self liquidating debt and the middle and lower classes are being decimated

Unfortunately the rate of growth in credit has just stalled and we are only in the 2nd or so inning of what will be a devastating economic climate over the next 5 years

I have the feeling that the middle class is being squeezed and is about to feel real hardship. But it’s the kind of hardship that remains hidden – people don’t talk about their mortgage payments.

#63 conan on 06.17.18 at 9:24 pm

will the politicians still accept lobbyist money from fish farms and deny there is a problem?

-crowdedelevatorfartz

I would sell my share in fish farms if I owned any. Everything I read on this contamination problem reminds of an oil spill, except its dangerous DNA.

Stop you fools!

#64 Leichendiener on 06.17.18 at 9:27 pm

Zero for forty has now devolved to three hundred for twenty.

#65 WUL on 06.17.18 at 9:33 pm

As a proud resident of the Stampede City (Cowtown) and a proud member of that class called Oilfield Trash, I offer the following.

Yes, the Vitamin B20 shot administered by Dr. OSFI is kicking in, but watch for two more events over the next three weeks or so.

First, on or about June 26 – 27, that Minnesota regulatory body will deliver its decision on the Enbridge Line 3 pipeline from Hardisty, AB to the US Midwest where the Koch bros are making a fortune on AB heavy oil and bitumen. I should visit Hardisty. I wonder if it has a rodeo?

Also, any day now the Federal Court of Appeal should deliver its decision on the two week hearing in Vancouver heard in October, 2017. 16 or 17 applications by opponents of the Kinder Morgan (now the Truedeau Morneau) Trans Mountain XL pipeline (which goes through Jasper National Park).

The applications by First Nations, the Province of BC, and environmental groups were consolidated into one hearing.

I have spoken with counsel for one of the appellant groups and it sounds like they may have caught the attention of the three justices hearing the matters.

We’ll see soon.

Oh, and Turner, you have qualities (good ones) that disqualify you from descending into the muck of present day politics. Maybe someday, a few good women and men will serve us again and you can be back strolling through the Peace Tower.

#66 prairie person on 06.17.18 at 9:44 pm

Garth, I know it isn’t really on your radar but if you could say something about the situation in Manitoba, I’d appreciate it. I’m there now. Seems to be a lot of places for sale. About ten years ago, there was a big rush by retirees to sell in the city (Wpg) and move to the country where they bought five acres, built a large house to impress t heir friends (no need for rooms as the kids were gone. it was all house bragging.)Now, those 65 year olds are 75 and having to drive to town every time you want a litre of milk isn’t so much fun. Also, medical help is slow coming and sometimes not available. I’m not sure what these people thought was going to happen in ten years. They were going to get younger? Prices went up quite a bit for a while and I don’t see much evidence of prices dropping but prices staying where they’ve been for some time plus more and more houses coming on the market. A lot of the houses are too expensive for cottages but there have never been many jobs in the country that would support buying a house 500k and up. It took two years for a friend of mine to sell his place.

#67 Fake News Again on 06.17.18 at 9:50 pm

Bravo. Great speech Garth…….

Welcome to Canada…..a FAKE democratic country that “elects” the next Autocrat PM (dictator light) every 4 (or so) years……

Please go away. – Garth

#68 Willy H on 06.17.18 at 9:54 pm

B20

“threw the brakes on move-up buyers”

__ __ __ __

Yup, cut off the head of snake. It’s the only way to bring sanity back into this market which is still in bubble territory.

Slowing down the move-up buyer is critical to slowing down this freight train. We are going to have to be patient.

Overall this should tame the beast but there are some weird local trends like Brampton.

Houses in Brampton (a large burb bordering the GTA) are selling above asking. Yes, sales have slowed but the market is still strong. Why? (1) Because this local market never reached the stratospheric heights of it’s hip neighbour’s. (2) Lot’s of 1960’s bungalows perfect for empty-nester’s who like to travel – Pearson Int’l Airport is 15-20 minutes and major transit hubs for Via and Go are well placed.

Parts of Bramalea (a planned garden-patterned burb) are very similiar to Etobicoke 1960’s sprawl, but half the price!

#69 mark on 06.17.18 at 9:55 pm

I think winnipeg is a stable market with affordable housing.

#70 Infill on 06.17.18 at 9:56 pm

Flop, you posted this one yesterday:

https://m.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/19575646/4650-BALDWIN-STREET-Vancouver-British-Columbia-V5N5B6

…and mentioned it was just infill.

But let’s be real here: at 6200 sq ft, it is larger than a standard 33’ lot in East Van.

Brand new, so I agree: cheap price.
I can’t remember seeing brand new homes on relatively large lots for that price.

The Vancouver market has truly changed, if there is no catch.

#71 Infill on 06.17.18 at 10:05 pm

#70

Ah, i get it now….
The 6200 sq ft is shared with main house.

So just one lot with a 1.1M laneway and a 1.5M main house, totalling a 2.6M property, hence still near 2016 pricing.

I am surprised that they are allowed to sell them seperately. I thought laneway homes couldn’t be split from main property?

#72 Leo Trollstoy on 06.17.18 at 10:13 pm

It was 2006, and the American real estate market was starting to roll over

This began the best half decade in real estate history for Canadians

C$ US$ at parity for years

US RE at pennies on the dollar

As close to free money as Canadians will ever get

If you can’t hit softballs don’t expect to be rich. Just go back to work and be nice to your boss

#73 Dead Cat Bounce on 06.17.18 at 10:14 pm

Kamloops inventory starting to pile up and price reductions starting to be advertised, the realtors trying to tell you different but their new boss is telling it like it is !!!
Lots of places “relisted” after sitting on the market for 30 + days, summertime here now, it’s all going down from here now !!!

https://cfjctoday.com/article/623073/kamloops-real-estate-inventory-freeze-began-thaw-may

#74 Adult or Child on 06.17.18 at 10:14 pm

The definition of being an adult is said to be doing things that one knows have to be done but one does not want or like to do.

A child is the opposite.

http://brianlilley.com/justin-trudeaus-childish-antics-wont-help-on-nafta-trade-files/

#75 meslippery on 06.17.18 at 10:16 pm

Reynolds531 on 06.17.18 at 6:51 pm

After many years working in finance I no longer ask why we don’t teach investment, credit, personal finance in school. I’ve resigned to the fact that those in charge simply don’t want the sheep to know enough to protect themselves.
—————
We should thank Garth for what he does here at no charge. Thanks Garth ( long time reader from the The Toronto Sun)

#76 Stuart on 06.17.18 at 10:29 pm

Why condos are up is B20 driving specers into subprime

https://wolfstreet.com/2018/06/15/canada-has-a-subprime-real-estate-problem-you-just-dont-know-it/

Just spoke to a millennium real estate couple…they are totally brainwashed…they bought from a flipper who defaulted on the reno and did not finish it.in Montreal.
Lakeshore properties are being flipped yearly here and old homes demolished on big lots and monster houses built and flipped.

#77 Doghouse Dweller on 06.17.18 at 10:30 pm

#55 crowdedelevatorfartz
deand
————————————–
deand ? What a self appointed spell-checker Stasi who can`t spell worth Sh*t !

#78 Keith in Rio on 06.17.18 at 10:32 pm

The SWISS direct democratic model is the best option. It’s populism at it’s best (for now).

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/07/switzerland-direct-democracy-explained/

Individual cantons, etc, and the citizens within can vote for things to be passed or denied, not the other way around.

For example, the proposed guaranteed income which was put forth failed in said vote recently as did backing the CHF by gold again. Here in “Kanaduh” Justin Merkel would simply ram whatever he wants your you know what without lube. Same for Scheer or the NDP dude living in his parents basement.

#79 Calgary's sucking on 06.17.18 at 10:43 pm

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/real-estate-sales-new-listing-ratio-calgary-june-2018-1.4692606

#80 SimplyPut7 on 06.17.18 at 10:55 pm

There’s nothing wrong with B20, the only problem with it, is that it was introduced too late.

It should have been introduced when the people with less than 20% down had to go through the stress test because now those people (if they didn’t go into debt and go crazy with the HELOC) will be able to afford the higher mortgage at renewal while many people with 20% down will not.

The government trusted banks and didn’t think they would knowingly let a people go to a private lender or use their parents HELOC for the down payment and then finance the rest as a conventional mortgage.

Even if B20 didn’t exist, rates are rising. The frenzy we saw in Vancouver and Toronto only works if rates are very low. What was the plan when the subprime borrowers renew their mortgage at their bank and private lender and IFRS 9 showed how many borrowers on the banks’ books were like this woman from Ajax in the link below?

https://globalnews.ca/news/3951652/interest-rates-canaa-housing-underwater/

What would happen to the new construction homeowners who need prices to increase drastically and rates to stay low to afford their new home under construction like the Mattamy homeowners?

https://www.thestar.com/business/real_estate/2018/04/05/oakville-homebuyers-purchased-at-their-own-risk-housing-minister-says.html

What happens when private lenders don’t want to lend money to risky subprime borrowers as rates increase and they can get better returns in other types of investments? Where will these borrowers go?

What will the local speculators in the condo market do as rates continue to rise and HELOCs and mortgage rates go higher, and they have to take possession of poorly built small concrete boxes that local and foreign investors have no interest in anymore?

The only plan realtors, the media, banks, and homeowners had was rates would stay low and the frenzy would continue. No one with an income of 100k to 200k and mortgages of 500k to over $1million ever thought they would have to pay all this money back. There was supposed to be a greater fool who takes this burden off of their hands.

It’s weird that a 50k down payment cannot buy you even a concrete box within 90 minutes of downtown Toronto or Vancouver. Most world-class cities do not have such housing markets, even in this low-interest rate environment. I could live in New York, London (UK), any coastline US city and live an hour away and have a detached house that’s 2 to 4 times my income. I cannot do that in Toronto or Vancouver.

How can Toronto and Vancouver attract international businesses to their cities, if there are better world-class cities offering cheaper commercial lease spaces and affordable homes for their employees?

B20 just showed Canada how obsessed with real estate we have become. What are we going to do with all of this debt?

#81 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.17.18 at 11:03 pm

@#77 Doghouse Dweller

There’s a bit of a difference between spelling mistakes and mistaking a Hearst for a hearse……….

:)

#82 Entrepreneur on 06.17.18 at 11:04 pm

I agree with other bloggers on here that the B20 should have been bought in waay earlier but it seems to me that it should stay to keep the sanity.

I say the same thing #34 Nova Johnny on getting rid of political parties and set up a system for the people. Right now, back and forth and with lies to win. Same with the polling, get rid of it. Time to move with the times. Automation might be the answer.

Anyone notice that once Ford was elected his speech hinted that he will try to do as promised then his latest his speech he mentioned he will try but hasn’t seen the budget. Just like someone said on here.

#83 Fake News Again on 06.17.18 at 11:05 pm

Fake News Again on 06.17.18 at 9:50 pm
Bravo. Great speech Garth…….

Welcome to Canada…..a FAKE democratic country that “elects” the next Autocrat PM (dictator light) every 4 (or so) years……

Please go away. – Garth

______

So I compliment you on a great blog…..and you tell me to go away? Are you truly trying to only have “govt workers” read your blog and “go away” the rest? Bob Corker much?

Bye. – Garth

#84 infill house on 06.17.18 at 11:20 pm

#70 Infill on 06.17.18 at 9:56 pm
Flop, you posted this one yesterday:

https://m.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/19575646/4650-BALDWIN-STREET-Vancouver-British-Columbia-V5N5B6

…and mentioned it was just infill.

But let’s be real here: at 6200 sq ft, it is larger than a standard 33’ lot in East Van.

Brand new, so I agree: cheap price.
I can’t remember seeing brand new homes on relatively large lots for that price.

The Vancouver market has truly changed, if there is no catch.
*******

Does this price include this infill house and lot as well?
Or this price is only for this infill house with zero land?

#85 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 06.17.18 at 11:41 pm

#15 SoggyShorts
#40 Terrie Rolph
#46 georgist

My first house was 5 and a bit times earnings. It was a smallish fixer upper. I had 20% down and qualified for a 14% mortgage. I would like to see your punk ass qualify at 8% and pay and actual 6% mortgage for the next whatever number of years you have left. Cheers.

#86 When Will They Raise Rates? on 06.17.18 at 11:50 pm

How about getting the Finance Committee to conduct a study into the effects of CMHC on housing affordability?

#87 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 06.18.18 at 12:07 am

Willy H #68

What delusions are you trying to sell? NOTHING is selling in Brampton and prices are falling. Brampton is the fraud capital of Canada. I hear over 70% of mortgages are fraudulent in Brampton. When I visit inlaws the same houses for sale week after week and month after month. Their is one sold sign that’s still up for over a year. A realtor owns it and just keeps his sign up. Lmfao. It’s been at least one years.

#88 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 06.18.18 at 12:11 am

I find it interesting how the socialist communist SHYSTERS are hoping the socialist communist Conservative party will use taxpayer money to keep the fraud going. SHYSTERS hate the free market as much as the communist conservatives. You SHYSTERS know I am right.

#89 Vanron on 06.18.18 at 12:17 am

When I read about your experiences as a politician it reinforces my believe that we have never had a democracy in Canada. You personally lived in the lie. If you look at the inner workings of Canadian political parties they operate identically to a communist party. All the candidates that we are offered are selected internally by the party and not the public. On Election Day we are basically offered candidates that have no allegiance to the public but to the party. As you know Garth once elected the dictator we call Prime Minister controls all the MP’s. You only answer to him and the party first and foremost. The people who elected you and you are supposed to represent are left out in the cold. We have never had democracy in Canada but more accurately a democratic dictatorship or democratic communist party leadership. We simply get to chose which dictatorship or communist styled party who is going to lie and ignore us.

#90 Smoking Man on 06.18.18 at 12:20 am

Dear god. If periscope existed when Hunter S Thomson did. The entertainment factor would be off the charts..

I’m trying to fill the void. The machine whenever I say something real. Kills my audio.

Swines.

#91 Smoking Man on 06.18.18 at 1:05 am

What Obumer , Geroge Soros, butts and T2 think of you minions.

https://youtu.be/Wph149Sk0ps

Go trump slay these beasts.

#92 Dolce Vita on 06.18.18 at 1:18 am

Just a lameass one. – Garth

…now Garth, learn to be more forthright in your responses.
____________________

You were there, I was not. So I believe you.

To me, I would have expected Big G should have seen the economic writing on the wall and let loose anything that prevents economic demise.

Then again, that would planning ahead (and bad planning at that).

I have to admit, when they came out with 0/40, I cringed.

I thought…here we go:

let’s put money in the hands of people so they can spend what they cannot afford.

#93 NEVER GIVE UP on 06.18.18 at 1:24 am

#12 Your Vote on 06.17.18 at 5:27 pm
The reason to vote in your assigned polling district is to elect the person representing you in Parliament, but look what happens. Your party wins and the person you voted for is on the team. The leader has an agenda which is often hidden at first. All members of the party must comply to the party line as directed by the leader. In effect the member representing your concerns has been made null and void. He can no longer function as your personal representative, and if he does, will be threatened, punished, or tossed aside.
==================================

Vote with your feet.
Make sure you are free to leave the country and move to wherever the politics don’t bother you.

I lived for 5 straight years in East Asia. 11 years there adding up all the days.
In that time I never felt so free. Why? Because I was free of National and local petty politics.
It did not matter to me if the Hong Kong LEGCO was putting forth a bill for whatever.
It is really liberating to live in places where you are not a citizen!

#94 NEVER GIVE UP on 06.18.18 at 1:33 am

#31 islander on 06.17.18 at 7:00 pm
We all know that this scenario has gone on waaaay too long.
In YVR the chickens have come home to roost as people realize that close friends and family are leaving town, never to return. Goodbye grandchildren – unless you fancy sharing your big expensive house with numerous relatives!
Neighbourhoods have been gutted and small businesses are struggling mightily to stay afloat. (Where have all their employees gone??)
Real estate agents are still selling condos, investors are still buying, but you can’t build a functioning community out of empty boxes and fly in fly out ‘citizens’.
====================================

The situation you have described is accurate and poignant. I have one word to describe my feelings about it. ANGER!

#95 Smoking Man on 06.18.18 at 1:36 am

Son number one posts an epic fathers day post on facebook. He missed the mind fkg by the machine. The other two. Don’t like me right now.

Gravy Train. You make a kid like this. Doubt it

Best salesmen in a multinational crop every month for the last year.

This is what he said today..
Happy fathers day to the one time Pilot,Entrapenuer,Published Author,World traveler,Programmer and of course my mentor. You are the most incredible dad in the world full of love and sacrifice. Thank you today and every day for the man you are and the one you have helped me and my brothers become. Have a fun day in California!

Love him.. The other two will come around.

https://youtu.be/R3iX0SUQpPg

#96 Flip flop on 06.18.18 at 1:52 am

# 2 Flop
Not sure about 1601, but i can tell you about 2003 at 950 Cambie.
Current owner bought in 2011 little under $600K. Put on the market in February 2018 for $1,048,000. Delisted in May and put on again for $999,000. Delisted in June and put again on the market few days ago at $1.020,000. Still, on the market since Feb and not sold. Chasing it’s own tail..? still, even if it’s sells under $900,000 we are talking about $300K profit in 6 years. Not bad. Initial money came from abroad… There are 3 similar condos for sale in the bldg at approximately same price

#97 NEVER GIVE UP on 06.18.18 at 1:57 am

#42 Poor Lower Mainland on 06.17.18 at 7:47 pm
Tsawwassen still a bit delusional too, but starting to get chipped away at the shins. They smoke a lot of weed down there and have swinger parties. Garden gnomes sold out at the hardware stores.

=====================================
Gross! Just thinking about all those crusty wrinklies having a swinger party! Yuck!

#98 NEVER GIVE UP on 06.18.18 at 2:03 am

#49 fishman on 06.17.18 at 8:13 pm
So right about MP’s being roadkill. I was a Manning Reformer & bagman for John Cummins. We had so much faith that John’s years on the Fisheries Standing Committee & then Chairman as Reform & Alliance opposition member would translate into salvation for our Pacific fisheries. If we could persevere long enough to get power.
How wrong we were. The Control Freak never spoke to John once for the full 9 years he was in caucus. Banished to Siberia even before Garth. We paid our own delegates way to Ottawa & were laughed at for our troubles. Now the Pacific Fishing Industry is in collapse. If this Adam’s sockeye run doesn’t show this summer that’s it. B.C. salmon done for at least in my lifetime. DFO’s trying desperately to hand the resource off to the Indians to get out from under the coming catastrophe. Wash, repeat like the cod collapse in Newfie land. Kill the messenger (local MP’s) cause you don’t like the message. There’s going to be sh*t to pay out here real soon.

====================================

There is a simple solution. Pay Icelanders to manage our entire fishery. They really know what they are doing unlike our idiots!

#99 NEVER GIVE UP on 06.18.18 at 2:11 am

#59 Give a mortgage to anyone on 06.17.18 at 8:59 pm
I totally support the B20 tests even though I am a home owner in Canada. About 5 years ago, I narrowly missed buying a house because other buyers had their offer accepted first. A week later, the house was back on the market. My realtor explained the purchaser’s financing had fallen through. Had I “won” a bidding war for that property, I would have paid a higher price because of other bidders who should not have been in the market.
——–============================

There may not have been another bidder as evidenced in Vancouver’s market. With the Fraud perpetrated by BC Realtors often there was only one bidder bidding against no one!

UN-INVESTIGATED FRAUD and THEFT!

Well we are Canadians aren’t we. Water under the bridge. We are the greatest suckers in the entire world!

Can’t you see that we have one of the last bubbles in the world! That is because we are weak and easy targets of FRAUD!

#100 marc on 06.18.18 at 2:14 am

As an another commenter asked, whats the low down on Manitoba?

Prices are steadily RISING within the $275-420k price point since B20 kicked in, with people being able to afford less. This is what is considered “affordable” out here these days for a 30-70 years old house.

We are seeing bidding wars for any property that is in decent condition and is priced around $330k-420k price. Most of these properties are in the south of the city, which has more development (commercial and residential), safety, proximity to the University, plenty of public transport access, and higher “quality” schooling.

Whats a young family to do? Hold out and keep on renting or dive into this frenzy? With 20% down, mortgages payments are about on par with rent prices in the area. But will the market for decent/affordable quickly becomes decent/un-affordable?

#101 smoking man on 06.18.18 at 2:17 am

DELETED

#102 Stan Brooks on 06.18.18 at 3:02 am

#5 Debtslavecreator on 06.17.18 at 5:03 pm

Pretty good summary, but for quite some time there is no wealth left to transfer from the middle class to the elites and now the hungry elites (think FI, oligopolies) want more.

Realizing they can not take the shirt and the shoes away from the bare naked and unwilling to spend carrots, now they want to utilize debt as the stick and beat you to death to make you ‘productive’ even if that means utilizing ever cheaper labour to produce chips and low added value goods for US.

Giant labour camp with increasingly rustier labour skills.

But expensive, elite needs more money, mr. more-tax–now more taxes, mr socks new pairs of socks.

I always suspected Harpo for that 0-40 and other decisions, realizing that F was just the puppet, the tool for perpetrating that fraud.
I bet their kids will have long and prosperous careers in these financial institutions.

And now I understand why you (GT) are being cautious on certain topic, the bozos are looking for somebody to blame when it all unravels, most likely the messenger for breaking their ‘flawless’ (by definition) design.

So one can’t say that the emperor has no clothes.

================================

#80 SimplyPut7 on 06.17.18 at 10:55 pm

You are wasting your logic and time, these are world class mental institutions, not world class cities.

#103 NoName on 06.18.18 at 3:09 am

Interesting read

A pattern of weakness is becoming apparent in megacity housing markets around the world. By the end of May, home prices in Sidney had fallen 4.7% year-over-year. In Toronto, the average price of a single family home had fallen 13% since the market’s peak in April of last year. Meanwhile, in February, London saw its first annual decrease in prices in more than eight years, which accelerated in March and April. And in the first quarter of this year, Manhattan saw the median price-per-square foot fall 18% year-over-year.

https://latest.13d.com/boom-global-megacities-bust-contagion-economy-real-estate-30d0951e21bc

#104 NoName on 06.18.18 at 4:08 am

Some time to much fun is not good thing.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-soccer-worldcup-ger-mex-mexico/mexicans-jubilant-over-world-cup-win-trigger-earthquake-sensors-idUSKBN1JD125

#105 PastThePeak on 06.18.18 at 5:04 am

#40 Terrie Rolph on 06.17.18 at 7:42 pm
“I qualified for my first mortgage on my first house at 14% in 1985. What is the big f’n deal now at 5.5 % ?”

I think it could be because in 1985 in Canada, the price of an entry level house (old, 2 bedroom bungalowish sort of entry level) was priced at about 3 times an entry level buyer’s gross annual salary. Today, it’s closer to 13
times their salary.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Please, it is not “Canada”, it is GTA & YVR/LM. The average home does not cost 10x household salary in most of the country.

#106 NoName on 06.18.18 at 5:09 am

Interesting read

While Xi Jinping appears on the global stage as a model of calm, his regime feels the need to suppress women who want an end to harassment on public transport, and Muslims in Xinjiang who resist the party’s orders to drink alcohol in “re-education” camps. In 2013 the party issued a list of seven topics that could no longer be discussed with students: universal values, a free press, civil society, civic rights, the party’s past “mistakes”, corruption and an independent judiciary. This speaks of fear rather than confidence. That fear should be of concern to liberal democracies.

https://www.economist.com/open-future/2018/06/15/the-chinese-communist-partys-fear-of-its-people-spells-trouble

#107 Tater on 06.18.18 at 7:36 am

And with almost 50% of all mortgages expiring in 2018, was this the worst time possible to enact such a thing?
—————————————————————-
I know CIBC put out a report saying this, based on a BOC paper, but it’s not true. The BOC has even come out and said so.

The graphic this was based on included variable rate mortgages which were classified as having a renewal time of immediate. IIRC, only 20% of fixed mortgages actually renew this year, which is totally normal.

Link? – Garth

#108 dharma bum on 06.18.18 at 7:54 am

Same old story, same old song and dance, my friend.

Governments ruin everything.

#109 Gravy Train on 06.18.18 at 8:01 am

#106 NoName on 06.18.18 at 5:09 am
“That fear should be of concern to liberal democracies.”

Smokey and other alt-right ‘mouth-breathing’ ‘knuckle-draggers’ here in the steerage section don’t like it when you use the words liberal or democracy, so you can expect a full reprisal any minute!

Oh—and before any of you geniuses attack me—just know that the words in quotes above are Garth’s, not mine! :)
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2018/05/31/the-draggers/#comments

#110 Hamsterwheelie on 06.18.18 at 8:19 am

I can say that B20 has made our lives quite a bit more complicated and stuffed the pockets bigly of Mortgage brokers and private lenders.
No one will finance us even after selling up 2 other properties to continue our conversion of a downtown residential into 4 units, one of which will be our primary residence. Its quite maddening to get denied over and over from banks and credit unions. Hand out, we humbly ask for a mere $200 000 on a $500 000 property that will have $4500 a month coming in.
Sure you say, cry me a river you say, well to cover those crazy extra $20 000 and up lenders fees we will charge more rent than we had intended to get back to a place of stability and try and edge out from under the %12 interest only payments. Thanks B20. Awesome

#111 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.18.18 at 8:29 am

I’m noticing more and more “For Lease” signs everywhere in the Lower Brainland….

“Signs” of the times?

#112 Tater on 06.18.18 at 8:35 am

#85 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 06.17.18 at 11:41 pm
#15 SoggyShorts
#40 Terrie Rolph
#46 georgist

My first house was 5 and a bit times earnings. It was a smallish fixer upper. I had 20% down and qualified for a 14% mortgage. I would like to see your punk ass qualify at 8% and pay and actual 6% mortgage for the next whatever number of years you have left. Cheers.
————————————————————–

You’re actually making their point for them.

#113 Retiree News Bulletin Board on 06.18.18 at 8:54 am

Let the Good Times Roll- Some mornings the old in box has some exceptional content.

Protecting your pension
Understanding the Comprehensive Plan Review
As part of the Comprehensive Plan Review, the SC Board is exploring the possibility of introducing “conditional indexing” at some point in the future.
Again, any changes that come out of the Review will have no impact on you. Your pension, including guaranteed indexing, is secure. As a retiree, you will continue to receive full indexing under the terms of the Plan.

#114 Bluetheimpala on 06.18.18 at 9:05 am

Push out first-time buyers? Sure in the 6-12 month range as the industry normalizes but the reality is prices are coming down and as the BoC keeps ratcheting up rates for fear of imploding our currency and killing exports, prices will come down. It is so myopic to think the next 3-12 months will ‘make the market’; we don’t know what the market will look like in a year plus but I know it will be more affordable and will stay that way for 10-15 years as we weather a number of economic distasters. Booom and buuust.. BettweDwelling4Life

#115 CHERRY BLOSSOM on 06.18.18 at 9:07 am

Autos, like mortgages, are also forcing huge debt in this country. Anyone who turns 16 gets a ‘New” Car. Why? cause you can get them just like a mortgage with no credit, no money down and a pulse. It used to be one car per family and we would hang on to the car for 20 years. People talk about oil and carbon as bad but don’t see the auto industry pushing sales of cars to every single human as fast as they can, thereby pushing carbon release higher. So in my mind the auto industry and their unions should bear a lot, a lot of responsibility for our carbon tax and stop complaining about gas that they actually have to buy with real earned money.

#116 russell on 06.18.18 at 9:12 am

For all the bashers who post negative comments… as a former MP (Garth) who like he says no politician will ever admit they are wrong as they would sooner drive the entire country over the edge to hang on to their worthless balls, I say piss on you… I don’t see one add on this site and nobody is making a coin here… anyway go Garth go bro…

#117 New Car on 06.18.18 at 9:32 am

#115 Cherry Blossom – My dad bought a new car every 3 years because he had the money to do so. I had no car at age 16, but for the next new family car to be purchased shortly talked him into buying the luxury sports model with the bigger engine option. In this way was able to hoop me dates in high school, as all waited in line to be taken for a fast ride. This car burned a lot of rubber on the road – big engine!

#118 Howard on 06.18.18 at 9:33 am

#10 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 06.17.18 at 5:18 pm

But maybe forcing people qualify for mortgages at almost 5.5% is extreme. Perchance this rule is causing long-term disruption by making entry-level housing cost more and shutting first-timers out, exacerbating the divide between the haves and the horny.
……………

I qualified for my first mortgage on my first house at 14% in 1985. What is the big f’n deal now at 5.5 % ?

————————————-

This is the kind of tone-deaf Boomer idiocy that SCM rightly called out.

What do you think has happened to the income to house price ratio since 1985? To say nothing of lack of wage growth today versus the 80s, university tuition costs, and myriad other big ticket costs that have skyrocketed since then.

#119 Danny Johnson on 06.18.18 at 9:42 am

Knowing the Liberals and NDP, they would of gone way more ahead to pump up housing.

The first Trudeau did this back in the 70’s for first time buyers would get $1,000 to buy their first home.

Now, $1,000 back then on a $25,000 to $40,000 average size house is equivalent of $20,000 to $30,000 today free money to buy a house at taxpayers expense. Even worse, interest rates were much higher, 9% to 10%+.

So, after 25 years it really was $50,000 to $60,000 at taxpayers expense.

#120 1950's on 06.18.18 at 10:10 am

The mortgage rate was about 5% to buy a home, but the average home was like $8,000. One must compare the relative ratios for those that bought homes using cheap cost of money. The asset component was huge so it became a leveraged buy at low interest rates, and each increase on a percentage basis against a low rate increases the mortgage payment dramatically. It was all a trap with stagnant wage increases with many going under the water for a bath – go figure!

#121 IHCTD9 on 06.18.18 at 10:15 am

#115 CHERRY BLOSSOM on 06.18.18 at 9:07 am
Autos, like mortgages, are also forcing huge debt in this country.
____

Got a really nice fold out pamphlet in the mail (weird eh?) last week promoting the “all new 2018 Ram 1500”. Glossy paper, beautiful photos. The truck had more leather and wood than a Benz, 395 hp , 400+ ft-lb, 12,500 lbs towing, 4 door 4×4, 53K. I did not read all the fine print, but that was the basic deal.

53K seems CHEAP (comparatively speaking) to me. My 15 year old truck was 43,800.00 in 2003, no leather, no 4×4, no wood, no 12″ touch screen, but one size up. The 2018 RAM 1500 is MUCH nicer, is 15 years newer, and does everything better than my old clunker except load and towing capacity – for like only 10K more. That 10K is mostly – if not all – just loss of purchasing power of our dollar over time. But look at the difference in the vehicle. That’s a lot of bang for the buck compared to what we used to get.

The truck should sell itself at that price, but they were offering 72 month financing at 0%. On top of that, they also had a “technology” promotion where if you buy you could win a whole raft of electronic stuff – a laptop, tablet, a phone, and more.

Obviously sales must be slow – at least for the local dealer. These trucks are supposed to be the hot sellers and big margins.

#122 Smoking Man on 06.18.18 at 10:25 am

I got to stop chirping T2

He’s the gift that keeps on giving.
https://www.dailyfx.com/usd-cad

#123 Mike in Edm on 06.18.18 at 10:32 am

I heard on the news last week that Edmonton now has record house listings, tied with 2008, but in 2008 4 out of every 10 houses sold… Currently, it’s 1 in every 10 houses. So something has to crack soon. My money is on prices.

My inlaws have been trying to sell their acreage all year. They bought 3-4 years ago, put at least $30k into it, and have recently just dropped the price by 10%. Even if they sell it for their current asking price, they are going to take about a $100k loss on the place, and that doesn’t factor in realtor fees.

#124 SimiplyPut7 on 06.18.18 at 10:38 am

#110 Hamsterwheelie on 06.18.18 at 8:19 am

Banks love making people into debt slaves. If they don’t want you there is a reason why.

Try Warren Buffett/Home Capital, I’m sure they will be willing to lend you money in exchange for your financial independence.

#125 Vehicle on 06.18.18 at 10:50 am

Any vehicle purchase is the worst possible investment because it depreciates quickly, and costly to maintain. Its no investment at all as pays no dividends, but sucks you dry with expenses. The purpose of a family vehicle for the most part is to transport you from A to B, and back. Of course those with money can buy whatever they want, or some vehicles are needed for special demand purposes. I say, buy cheap for basic transportation.

#126 millmech on 06.18.18 at 10:51 am

118 Howard
You do realize that tuition went through the roof the same time everyone started to use student loans, since there was easy money for education the institutes could charge more. If students stopped going to these institutes and enrollment dropped what would happen ?You guessed it, prices would drop for education, it is supply and demand as everyone needs a degree these days.

This can also been seen in house prices, back in the boomer buying days there was only one income to buy a house and interest rates were higher along with down payment amounts.
Now you have two incomes buying a house with a large down payment from parents, very low interest rates and minimal down payment policies. It is a no brainer that housing is where it is.
You want Boomer prices do these things
1)can only use one income to qualify for a mortgage
2)down payment from mortgage applicant can not be gifted, need proof that they saved it up themselves
3)mortgage rate must be in low double digits
4)mortgage down payment must be 25% of purchase price

Also just look at vehicle prices now that there is zero interest loans, up to $90,000 for a new truck(0% financing for 96 months), really I should be ranting at the millennials for driving vehicle affordability through the roof.

#127 Shawn Allen on 06.18.18 at 10:59 am

STOP with the multiple names

#117 New Car…

Why not pick one screen name and stick with it. Or, here’s a thought, be willing to post under your real name?

Maybe use “As” as your name since you annoyingly over use “as” instead of since or because. Also are you a reincarnation of “Old Man” who also over used “as”?

#128 SimplyPut7 on 06.18.18 at 11:01 am

#102 Stan Brooks on 06.18.18 at 3:02 am

It’s been a couple of decades since people have heard the word ‘No’ from their banks or lenders.

Credit cards can only keep you afloat for so long, before you are in real trouble. What if the buyers of the 60,000 condos under construction in GTA can’t get funding because of rising rates and lower prices. The newly built low-rise units in the GTA (townhouses and detached houses) are having that problem now, they bought at the peak and their homes cost 25-30% more than what is selling down the street from them.

The ripple effect from defaulting speculators/flippers could be massive.

#129 Howard on 06.18.18 at 11:54 am

Surely this qualifies as dumb money?

http://forums.redflagdeals.com/borrowing-deposit-pre-construction-condo-2201313/

I want to purchase a pre-construction condo in BC. The sales are expected to start in August with construction beginning in the next year and completion of 2021. My budget is $500,000 so I will need $50,000 by August. I hardly have any savings but expect to have about $12-15K by August 1st. So I’m contemplating a)asking my dad to lend me the money from his HELOC because I think he’s around 4% or b) using my own unsecured LOC which is at 8.44%! Obviously the former will be cheaper but the latter will protect my pride. Anyways, I called RBC to see if they have more competitive rates and the guy was saying that I can’t borrow to put money down on a Pre-construction home. The way I understood it was that you’re just giving money to the builder in 10% +5% +5% instalments over pre-determined intervals and then you get a mortgage in 2021 (at build completion). The banks, therefore, are not involved until the end. Am I wrong?

#130 Wrk.dover on 06.18.18 at 11:56 am

Every year the intrinsic price of a new vehicle is less.

The sticker on a 1994 Buick LeSabre Limited, was $36,000 and the CDN $ was maybe worth sixty cents.

Same car today in barely used, time capsule condition is worth $800?

Faced with a repaint, people trade for new. Relatively no body shops left that do repaints. Same with engine rebuilds.

Only question buyers ask is “how much/month?”

#131 IHCTD9 on 06.18.18 at 12:01 pm

Ms. IH and I have been talking of moving into a newer home over the last year. I can see the time to start preparing our current place for getting listed is now.

Out here, there are many sub 200K houses that sit for quite a while, not too many wanting a “starter” home these days I guess – not even Millennials. These places are great bang for the buck if you’re a handy guy.

200-400K homes are still older, but nicely maintained and upgraded. Some Millennials buy here. Good deals can be had because most of the buyers are shopping in the next category up the ladder…

The 400-600K zone is jammed with nice new/newer homes that everyone wants, and just about everyone can afford. Bang for the buck is low, these are souped up bungalows on an acre or less, usually in a subdivision. Every builder out here is building in this zone, and they’re trying like hell to get the prices over 600K on the high end of things. These homes are the best most locals can afford. The biggest, and most overpriced segment of the local new home market. Sure they’re nice, but they offer little real value to back up the half mil price tag.

Now, things are starting to look good in the 600K+ range. The houses have been sitting since spring, some evidently have to sell as they’re cutting the price over time. They’re not moving. New high-end listings are actually starting to look good.

An example of a good deal is one I saw last night: 3000 sf custom home, cathedral ceilings everywhere, wood and stone all over, floor to ceiling windows, two car detached garage just as nice as the house, both have radiant in-floor heat, another 4000sf detached shop also, heated and insulated. Hot tub, pool and decks all very nicely done. Over 70 acres of forest – and we’re talking some sweet land here with mature 100+ year old trees and established trails. Pretty much everything is 5 years old or less. Price is 690K, it’s 2-3X the bang for the buck as the 4-600K subdivision bungs. I’d offer this guy 650, sell my place, and move in at less than 1500.00/month and own it before retirement.

2 years from now will be an awesome time to shop in the current 600-1M zone out here. The 900K-1M places are going to have to sit for ages, or drop low enough to tease buyers in the ~800K zone up the ladder a notch. Then everyone else is going to have to drop too.

#132 georgist on 06.18.18 at 12:04 pm

> My first house was 5 and a bit times earnings. It was a smallish fixer upper. I had 20% down and qualified for a 14% mortgage. I would like to see your punk ass qualify at 8% and pay and actual 6% mortgage for the next whatever number of years you have left. Cheers.

I can easily qualify for that old man.

My point is you can’t add up hence you don’t know why it’s more expensive now. Keep the trash talk for your trashy life.

#133 Howard on 06.18.18 at 12:11 pm

#126 millmech on 06.18.18 at 10:51 am

Are you seriously blaming students for high tuition costs? Are you blaming them (and not employers) for credential inflation? Are you seriously blaming young people for skyrocketing housing? And you’re also blaming young people for the fact that they need two incomes to support a family?

I can’t tell if you are trolling or if you really are that thick.

Your comment about car ownership is ridiculous since Millennials have very low car ownership rates compared to Gen X and Boomers. The idiots paying $90K for a vehicle are part of your own cohort.

#134 Fake News Again on 06.18.18 at 12:13 pm

DELETED

#135 Dead Cat Bounce on 06.18.18 at 12:48 pm

#129 Howard on 06.18.18 at 11:54 am
Surely this qualifies as dumb money?

http://forums.redflagdeals.com/borrowing-deposit-pre-construction-condo-2201313/
——————————————————————

#136 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 06.18.18 at 12:49 pm

#112 Tater

You’re actually making their point for them.
………………………………….

What point is that ? My point is : a 6% interest rate is near the historical norm for mortgages. It is not outrageous at all. 14% would be outrageous, 6% not so much.

#137 Penny Henny on 06.18.18 at 12:57 pm

#127 Shawn Allen on 06.18.18 at 10:59 am
STOP with the multiple names

#117 New Car…

Why not pick one screen name and stick with it. Or, here’s a thought, be willing to post under your real name?

Maybe use “As” as your name since you annoyingly over use “as” instead of since or because. Also are you a reincarnation of “Old Man” who also over used “as”?

///////////////////////

I suspect the same thing.
Annoying old coot isn’t he coming here to drop his pearls of wisdom.

#138 Lost...but not leased on 06.18.18 at 1:04 pm

“I still wear the treadmarks. Proudly.”
Garth
=======
Here here…

I would encourage parties to involve themselves in a capacity beyond the average citizen. …especially if it involves a taxpayer funded entity.Then and only then will you understand what REALLY goes on behind the scenes, and what the majority see is simply a facade.

I was an active PAC member and delegated to bring a program to the school. This involved sending a standard form from the program to the students laying out the cost and what was being provided…in essence a “contract”.

All was fine until the form was sent out…a totally different one than the original. I questioned the school principal re: what had happened, and he admitted he had done it. In the real world that is fraud and misrepresentation.

Up to this point, he had presented this warm jovial persona, but I realized this person was a control freak…who micromanaged everything that went on in the school. He and I locked horns for years afterward. My fellow PAC members almost all female…wouldn’t listen to me ,nor my experience and warnings.

Example: Annual PNE passes.
The PNE had provided passes to children in elementary school when I was a kid…I thought the program was cancelled. Then a parent confided to us that the school secretary informed them that the passes had been sent to the school but not distributed. ??? Ultimately…a few parents showed up at next PAC meeting and we cornered the Principal…who turned red and claimed the PNE was a corporate brainwashing venue???? This clown was imposing his subjective ideological views on approx. 400 students.

The Vice Principal was just a toadie…the school district was in denial…..I had a number of other incidents as well.

Why didn’t I quit?…because I felt an even stronger obligation to be present and let them know I AM WATCHING THEIR EVERY MOVE.

Once you know …you can never go back…

#139 232 on 06.18.18 at 1:04 pm

#10 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 06.17.18 at 5:18 pm
I qualified for my first mortgage on my first house at 14% in 1985. What is the big f’n deal now at 5.5 % ?

——————————————————————

You sir, don’t know how to use a calculator, or Excel… or common sense.
Thank God you are not a millennial as else you were doomed. My guess is that I’m helping pay your pension too….

#140 Found Him on 06.18.18 at 1:34 pm

Doug Rowat used the ‘as’ word four times, and in one paragraph alone there were three of them. I believe he is our suspect.

#141 Shawn Allen on 06.18.18 at 1:42 pm

The LAW OF UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES AT WORK

#126 millmech on 06.18.18 at 10:51 am said:
118 Howard
You do realize that tuition went through the roof the same time everyone started to use student loans, since there was easy money for education the institutes could charge more.

********************************
That is a good point. It does not blame the students but under the laws of supply and demand when you help out the demand side of things to try to improve affordability (Student loans , CMHC, longer amortization, lower interest rates) the increased demand means that the equilibrium price increases. Any attempt to make houses or university more affordable automatically causes an increase in the cost or price charged. It is simple supply and demand and the law of unintended consequences at work.

#142 Jaco Joubert on 06.18.18 at 1:52 pm

> Link? – Garth

Here you go: https://www.ratespy.com/47-of-mortgages-will-not-renew-this-year-05116120

> “Our staff estimates that roughly 25% of mortgages will be renewed this year, in line with historical norms,” says Bank of Canada spokesperson Josianne Ménard.

#143 IHCTD9 on 06.18.18 at 1:55 pm

#130 Wrk.dover on 06.18.18 at 11:56 am

Only question buyers ask is “how much/month?”
______

Yep, no one is interested in a cheap old car anymore. If you can cough up 3-400.00/month, you can buy a new econobox with the warranty they also need because no one can operate a wrench anymore either.

Hell, in the GTA you see leases galore. Like new Audi’s, BMW’s and Benz’s coming off lease by the thousands. If you can cough up 700.00-800.00/month, you can drive around in a new luxury car, show off “how rich” you are to all the Women, and your maintenance/repair concerns end upon filling the gas tank.

#144 Brett in Calgary on 06.18.18 at 1:56 pm

Interesting and likely to continue.

#123 Mike in Edm on 06.18.18 at 10:32 am
I heard on the news last week that Edmonton now has record house listings, tied with 2008, but in 2008 4 out of every 10 houses sold… Currently, it’s 1 in every 10 houses. So something has to crack soon. My money is on prices.

My inlaws have been trying to sell their acreage all year. They bought 3-4 years ago, put at least $30k into it, and have recently just dropped the price by 10%. Even if they sell it for their current asking price, they are going to take about a $100k loss on the place, and that doesn’t factor in realtor fees.

#145 Howard on 06.18.18 at 2:02 pm

#141 Shawn Allen on 06.18.18 at 1:42 pm

The LAW OF UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES AT WORK

#126 millmech on 06.18.18 at 10:51 am said:
118 Howard
You do realize that tuition went through the roof the same time everyone started to use student loans, since there was easy money for education the institutes could charge more.

********************************
That is a good point. It does not blame the students but under the laws of supply and demand when you help out the demand side of things to try to improve affordability (Student loans , CMHC, longer amortization, lower interest rates) the increased demand means that the equilibrium price increases. Any attempt to make houses or university more affordable automatically causes an increase in the cost or price charged. It is simple supply and demand and the law of unintended consequences at work.

————————————————-

You’re speculating that student loans were the cause of, rather than a response to, high tuition costs.

If young people could walk into a bank branch or manufacturing plant down the street the day after highschool graduation and be instantly hired to a well-paid job with good benefits and steady wage growth – like the Boomers could do in the 70s and, to a lesser extent, the 80s – I think you’d find many would gladly choose that over university. Bring back that sort of easy, laidback job market and watch university enrollment plummet.

#146 Fake News Again on 06.18.18 at 2:17 pm

DELETED

#147 Heloguy on 06.18.18 at 2:28 pm

The purpose of a family vehicle for the most part is to transport you from A to B, and back.
——————————————————————-
My 1980 GMC truck, bought used for 5k in 1990 is what I drive. Worth more today than when I bought it. Basic high school mechanic skills keep it going strong. If I was going to pay 50 k for a car, it would be one that doesn’t depreciate.

https://azure.barrett-jackson.com/

#148 millmech on 06.18.18 at 2:49 pm

Both my boys got advanced education in high school and earn six figure salaries as tradesmen. No student debt one makes just over$50/hr and the other makers around $41/hr. Multi degree barista pouring people making $15/hr because poor people have poor people habits.

Also do these people that go for these degrees even research their field, I made sure my boys interviewed around a dozen people in the field they wanted to get into and asked critical questions. Their guidance counsellor was pushing them into accounting and HR careers(which you obviously need degrees).

Also my oldest has purchased a house in the interior of BC with his wife who is a nurse for cash lol
, no mortgage to worry about and great db pensions to boot

#149 maxx on 06.18.18 at 3:00 pm

Consumer debt levels, such as those we have today, are a cancer on our economy. Government has screwed up royally and most everyone knows it.

Having allowed people to borrow at extreme levels and to develop a mindset that accepts most debt as normal is a huge mistake and seriously damages the fabric of commerce – it also makes the real economy far more sensitive to any type of shock, let alone black swan events. Partly why those pricey, check out the competition, hand-holding “G-series” meetings are considered so important. Tea and sympathy, anyone?

What an ugly, intransigent mess. Gubbmint always seems to need to mess with something. Had it simply left interest rates at normal levels, little of this crap would have transpired.

Today, our young are pissed, seniors are pissed, those in the middle are scratching their heads wondering why a decent retirement seems so far away and votes flip from one extreme to another. Comes from their being force-fed a diet of austerity alongside streaming evidence of lavish lifestyles by the few.

Money is tight at the grass roots level, but corps, the rich and those fortunate enough to be employed in benefit-rich jobs are doing better than ever. Layer on robotics and AI and watch what happens over the next decade.

Low hanging tax fruit, tapping the self-indulgence chromosome by diddling with rates.

#150 SimplyPut7 on 06.18.18 at 3:00 pm

#131 IHCTD9 on 06.18.18 at 12:01 pm

Young people are obsessed with new homes because they think they will be able to move on to the next house before the repairs in the house start to add up, like a car lease.

Once they realize debt is meant to be paid down and they may not be able to move so easily as new homeowners in Toronto are finding out, maybe they will stop overpaying for new homes and look for nice older homes that can be paid off quickly rather than be indebted to their bank or private lender for the next 25-40 years.

#151 millmech on 06.18.18 at 3:08 pm

Howard
Just to let you know my friends site prep company starts labourers at $28/hr, after a year if your good they are at $35/hr. He has the smartest crew out there, two certified librarians and one with a psychology degree, digging ditches and laying pipe, if they had gone to work for him out of high school they would probably be $500k ahead of where they are now.

#152 Gravy Train on 06.18.18 at 3:11 pm

#6 crowdedelevator on 06.17.18 at 5:08 pm
“It’s a pity you can’t count [being a former accountant].”

I received top-honours marks and academic awards in my field.

#153 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 06.18.18 at 3:24 pm

#139 232 on 06.18.18 at 1:04 pm
#10 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 06.17.18 at 5:18 pm
I qualified for my first mortgage on my first house at 14% in 1985. What is the big f’n deal now at 5.5 % ?

——————————————————————

You sir, don’t know how to use a calculator, or Excel… or common sense.
Thank God you are not a millennial as else you were doomed. My guess is that I’m helping pay your pension too….
…………………………

My point is : a 6% interest rate is near the historical norm for mortgages. It is not outrageous at all. 14% would be outrageous, 6% not so much. You would be guessing wrong about my pension, I financed that myself. And i learned to do math before calculators and Excel were invented, unlike you who would need fingers and toes if you didn’t have a calculator.

#154 Tater on 06.18.18 at 3:26 pm

#107 Tater on 06.18.18 at 7:36 am
And with almost 50% of all mortgages expiring in 2018, was this the worst time possible to enact such a thing?
—————————————————————-
I know CIBC put out a report saying this, based on a BOC paper, but it’s not true. The BOC has even come out and said so.

The graphic this was based on included variable rate mortgages which were classified as having a renewal time of immediate. IIRC, only 20% of fixed mortgages actually renew this year, which is totally normal.

Link? – Garth
————————————————————–
Not the best source, but it does give the rationale for how they came up with the inaccurate stat: https://www.ratespy.com/47-of-mortgages-will-not-renew-this-year-05116120

and here’s the BOC doc in question, page 7 and 8 are the relevant bits: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/fsr-november2017.pdf

The BOC was illustrating who is vulnerable to rising rates and included those with variable mortgages and fixed rate mortgages that would renew.

If 25% of home loans renew this year and 22% have VRMs which will be impacted by rising rates, it is consequential nonetheless. – Garth

#155 Victor V on 06.18.18 at 3:31 pm

#110 Hamsterwheelie on 06.18.18 at 8:19 am

I can say that B20 has made our lives quite a bit more complicated and stuffed the pockets bigly of Mortgage brokers and private lenders.
No one will finance us even after selling up 2 other properties to continue our conversion of a downtown residential into 4 units, one of which will be our primary residence. Its quite maddening to get denied over and over from banks and credit unions. Hand out, we humbly ask for a mere $200 000 on a $500 000 property that will have $4500 a month coming in.
Sure you say, cry me a river you say, well to cover those crazy extra $20 000 and up lenders fees we will charge more rent than we had intended to get back to a place of stability and try and edge out from under the %12 interest only payments. Thanks B20. Awesome

=============================

Why do you think Warren Buffett invested in Canada’s largest alt lender last year?

#156 Gravy Train on 06.18.18 at 3:33 pm

#134 Fake News Again on 06.18.18 at 12:13 pm
DELETED

#146 Fake News Again on 06.18.18 at 2:17 pm
DELETED

Third times’s the charm! Nah! Three strikes, you’re out! :)

#157 Barb on 06.18.18 at 3:37 pm

Just think what an improvement GT would be over T2.

I can dream!

#158 Duke on 06.18.18 at 3:39 pm

#148 millmech on 06.18.18 at 2:49 pm
Both my boys got advanced education in high school and earn six figure salaries as tradesmen. No student debt one makes just over$50/hr and the other makers around $41/hr. Multi degree barista pouring people making $15/hr because poor people have poor people habits.

======================

You don’t know the difference between salaries and hourly wages. $50/hr in Canada doesn’t get you six figure because $50/hr x 7.5hr/day x 252days = $94,500. He can only make six figure with overtime work. LOL What is ‘advanced education’ in high school? Is there such a thing? Are you talking about IB or AP courses?

#159 El presidente trump on 06.18.18 at 3:43 pm

I hearby create Space Force to ensure even aliens kiss my ass, though I know the most prolific poster on this blog already does.
Commander Bone Spurs.

#160 Nurse Story on 06.18.18 at 3:44 pm

#148 millmech – A friend of mine is a nurse in Toronto who was earning about 100K a year and only 47 years old. She and her husband sold at the top in the northern part of Toronto, and bought a condo in the core. They are well off because everything was paid in full including the summer home up north. Her husband told her to quit because they needed no more money, and she did, because loved to shop. Here is what happened, she became restless, so went on standby since it paid much more per hour. A week here, a couple of weeks there, or a month somewhere. It gave her control and freedom for dining, shopping, trips to NYC, and spending time up north with her husband while still making big money. An RN degree from a university with specialization is portable, and the same with a school teacher, or a skilled trade.

#161 Fake News Again on 06.18.18 at 4:09 pm

BANNED

#162 Tater on 06.18.18 at 4:19 pm

#136 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 06.18.18 at 12:49 pm
#112 Tater

You’re actually making their point for them.
………………………………….

What point is that ? My point is : a 6% interest rate is near the historical norm for mortgages. It is not outrageous at all. 14% would be outrageous, 6% not so much.
—————————————————————-
If rates drop from 15% to 5%, purchasing power doubles, all else equal. So bragging that people today can’t afford a 6% mortgage means that you understand that incomes haven’t kept pace with prices and even the low interest rates can’t help.

#163 jess on 06.18.18 at 4:23 pm

Oh yeah, in Texas vs california? regarding your water comparison

water in texas flooding too much or not drinkable
Drinking water contamination pronounced in Texas’ rural areas | The …
https://www.texastribune.org/…/texas-drinking-water-contamination-problem-pronou…

Jan 22, 2018

For years, some residents of Parker County in North Texas have believed that nearby gas drilling was responsible for high levels of methane in neighborhood water wells. Research published today in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences appears to back that up. The study looked at water contamination in Texas and Pennsylvania.
ttps://stateimpact.npr.org/texas/tag/water-issues/

https://www.kvue.com/article/news/investigations/defenders/the-dirty-truth-about-texas-water/269-342366238

Radium contamination in water most widespread in Texas …
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/drinking-water-radium-contamination-cancer/

Jan 11, 2018

Report: Major Texas industrial facilities rank first nationally in illegal water pollution

A study by a Texas environmental group and a California think tank found that about half of Texas’ major industrial facilities released illegal levels of pollution into rivers, lakes and other waterways over the past two years.

by Kiah Collier March 15, 2018 Updated: 5 PM

#164 BEEZY on 06.18.18 at 4:31 pm

What do you guys think of these new 1 fund solutions?

0.22% MER

Vanguard Conservative ETF Portfolio (VCNS) (40% equity / 60% fixed income)
Vanguard Balanced ETF Portfolio (VBAL) (60% equity / 40% fixed income)
Vanguard Growth ETF Portfolio (VGRO) (80% equity / 20% fixed income)

#165 B20 is the real deal on 06.18.18 at 4:40 pm

Don’t mess with B20. It is a necessary reality check for RE markets across Canada.

Product price increases of 25% or more 2015 to 2018 are choking off every other industry or investment that is not somehow related to the FIRE economy.

If the market takes a 25% haircut, we’re back to 2015 levels. Big whoop for the majority of homeowners unless of course.. the buyers chased the market and bought in 2017. Will take 10 years to get back to those prices, maybe longer.

Speculators and “investors” have largely created this mess. Let them take a bath. If they’re solid, they can weather this dip and see it as a buying opportunity to add to their portfolio. If they’re stretched to the max and have no room to breathe, they’re financial roadkill anyway.

#166 Where's The Money Greedo? on 06.18.18 at 5:02 pm

Re: #70 Infill on 06.17.18 at 9:56 pm
#84 infill house on 06.17.18 at 11:20 pm

Does this price include this infill house and lot as well?
Or this price is only for this infill house with zero land?
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
If you google the MLS R2280119 it says that there is another house. The original house (if it’s still there) shows there is room for that house beside it but my bet the lot has got 2 new houses on it.

#167 joe on 06.18.18 at 5:20 pm

So did the stress test have unintended consequences in the marketplace?

OK…I’ll bite…with another question…

If it wasn’t for artificially low rates brought on by central banks in the first place, would we even be in this situation?

#168 SimplyPut7 on 06.18.18 at 5:38 pm

#164 BEEZY on 06.18.18 at 4:31 pm

According to the ETF factsheets, they each seem to be made up of the same 3 Vanguard ETFs:

Vanguard Canadian Aggregate Bond Index ETF
Vanguard Global ex-US Aggregate Bond ETF CAD Hedged
Vanguard FTSE Canada All Cap Index ETF

The MER is 0.22% but if you take for example Vanguard Conservative ETF Portfolio and use the weights they have given in the factsheet, it appears the combined MER is only 0.13583% [(0.571 x 0.08) + (0.229 x 0.35)+ (0.2 x 0.05)].

https://www.vanguardcanada.ca/advisors/mvc/loadImage?country=can&docId=12394

If you created the same weights of the individual ETFs that make up the one fund would that be worth saving that MER difference of 0.08417% (0.22 – 0.13583) or would you rather not having to check the factsheet periodically to see if they have changed the weights of the ETFs that make up that one fund and/or replaced some of the ETFs with other ETFs they offer.

#169 JonBoy on 06.18.18 at 6:31 pm

125 Vehicle on 06.18.18 at 10:50 am
Any vehicle purchase is the worst possible investment because it depreciates quickly, and costly to maintain. Its no investment at all as pays no dividends, but sucks you dry with expenses. The purpose of a family vehicle for the most part is to transport you from A to B, and back. Of course those with money can buy whatever they want, or some vehicles are needed for special demand purposes. I say, buy cheap for basic transportation.

——–

Well said! I buy my family vehicles used, usually 4-6 years old, with moderate mileage. They’re usually 60-70% less than the buyer paid for them, new.

Simple is better. I buy Hondas, mostly, and they run forever with basic maintenance.

That said, I occasionally have a sportscar in the garage (for fun) and I tend to pick ones that I know are holding their value. I haven’t lost a penny on the last three sportscars I bought, in terms of buy/sell price, so I was stuck merely paying for insurance and registration (ie, normal vehicle use). Now that I’m in BC, that’s tougher to do as they charge tax on used vehicles, so I’m a little more leery of shelling out the cash for a toy, especially with such insane insurance rates. But you never know… It’s my one vice and a few grand over a year or two is worth the fun.

#170 jess on 06.18.18 at 6:35 pm

sorting

coca cola mootopia

It’s one of the biggest and most sophisticated dairies in the country, and it is home to 37,000 cows, divided among 11 different milking operations.

https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2014/12/25/372664332/inside-the-indiana-megadairy-making-coca-colas-new-milk

========
https://www.woodbusiness.ca/sawmilling/mills/saunas-and-sawmills-4628

Staffing
Walking around the mills in Estonia and Finland is almost eerie. The machines run with very little supervision. With this high level of automation, most mills employ what Canadian sawmills would consider a skeleton staff.

Reducing employee count is a touchy subject in Canada, particularly in communities where a mill is one of if not the largest employer. Yet across the country many mills struggle to find staff members who will stick around. Automation would be a boon for these mills.

At Toftan 2 just 18 staff members, including the mill manager and all maintenance staff, are required to produce 200,000 cubic metres per year – almost 85 million bdft. Those staff members were carefully selected from more than 250 applicants, Arula says, and trained for more than six months in Finland and Sweden at Toftan’s parent company mills.

This level of skill and dedication to the job may be the reason for what Gaétan Gagné, president of Quebec’s KTG Groupe, describes as a sense of pride in the millwrights we encountered.

“The people in the mills here are very proud and they love what they are doing. In Canada it’s tough because there are so many opportunities for employment. But the environment here in Europe is low stress; they take their time to do it properly,” Gagné says.

Clean up is one major takeaway for Gagné. “These mills here are very clean; no dust in the air. The buildings and conception of equipment here, from the installation and engineering, they are thinking about this point. I think it’s forgotten in Canada. In the long term we need to be thinking about this more.”

Messier agrees. “You can see the machines are very well maintained and they’re very proud of their machines,” he says. “As far as how they operate the mill, they are run by very few people and are still very efficient with not a lot of downtime. It’s good to see that and we have to learn from that.”

#171 Where's The Money Greedo? on 06.18.18 at 6:40 pm

Re: #96 Flip flop on 06.18.18 at 1:52 am

# 2 Flop
Not sure about 1601, but i can tell you about 2003 at 950 Cambie.
Current owner bought in 2011 little under $600K. Put on the market in February 2018 for $1,048,000. Delisted in May and put on again for $999,000. Delisted in June and put again on the market few days ago at $1.020,000. Still, on the market since Feb and not sold. Chasing it’s own tail..? still, even if it’s sells under $900,000 we are talking about $300K profit in 6 years. Not bad. Initial money came from abroad… There are 3 similar condos for sale in the bldg at approximately same price
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++=
I worked on these buildings: Pacific Place 1+2 on the same lot back in the early 90’s—some of the original leaky condos. Mushrooms growing in the spaces between floors and inside condos when water penetrated.
Li Ka Shing, his son Victor-Stanley Kwok-Henderson Developments knew all about it. They had contingencies built in to repair them before they were built because of all the leaky problems on the first builds at the east end of False Creek by Science World. It’s funny they didn’t re-design those window walls after the east False Creek problems. How would you like to buy a new condo and then in the winter mushrooms start growing INSIDE your condo.
They took a couple summers to repair those, if I remember right.
I wasn’t on those towers, I was on another leaky tower over in Coal Harbor area.
How they are not still leaking like crazy is mind boggling.
The way they designed windows back then was trial and error, so called “new technology”, but we tradespeeps knew better, even walked off job and let them know, but were told to shut up or lose job.
Gordon Campbell, 35th Mayor of Vancouver from 1986 to 1993, set the ball in motion. How he ended up Premier of BC is a shame! He wrecked BC, selling out to foreigners. And of course remember his BC Rail scandal (https://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2011/12/27/BCRail/, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BC_Legislature_Raids).
I would never buy a condo in a building with a cheaper window wall (a lot different than more expensive “curtain wall”), too many ways for leaks to penetrate. I don’t believe they use that type of install any more. I wouldn’t know, got out of the industry because of the shoddy companies.
Buyer beware!!!!!!

#172 Fluorine on 06.18.18 at 7:50 pm

No loss.

Rule 2: Respectful, wide-ranging discussion on the topic of the posting is encouraged, and will not be censored.

Off topic nonsense about MSM bogeymen and American politics is just padding post counts… which Garth doesn’t need.

#173 Steven Rowlandson on 06.19.18 at 2:33 pm

Garth being right and telling the truth in a society that prefers otherwise is often risky and sometimes fatal.
On the bright side they haven’t crucified you yet.