Bring it on

Allison is 32, self-employed (runs a family plumbing supply company), single, drives a used Boxster (“my one folly”), owns a tiny bung and thinks she’s fearless.

“I have a big tolerance for risk,” she says. “Besides, I’m young, never gonna have kids, own my job and day-to-day things don’t rattle me. So let’s roll the dice.”

She wants a portfolio that is all-stock, all the time – based entirely on her personality, her cowgirl attitude and the innate belief she’s bullet-proof because of a long time horizon as an investor. “So long as I don’t panic,” she says, mockingly, “and turn into a girly girl, then it’s all good.”

But it’s not. Ally confuses investing with gambling. Her portfolio is a couple of hundred thou – not enough money to achieve diversification buying individual stocks (that takes a few dozen positions, despite what you might think), and if any one of the eight or ten equities she now holds takes a hit, she loses big. Also, A has yet to go through any kind of serious or protracted market correction (we actually haven’t had a decent one since 2011). So she has no idea if her bravado will hold up, or the inner wimp come through.

Let’s make some assumptions that Allison is like everyone else I’ve ever met, and has the same two goals: (a) don’t lose money and (b) score a reasonable rate of return.

The second principle of investing is that despite age, appetite for risk, family status, wealth or goals, we all live in the same world. The challenges and opportunities are universal. You’re not going to change any of the factors which will move economies or markets over the next few years. So invest for to ensure both (a) and (b). In that regard, all-equities doesn’t cut it.

We all have to deal with Trump, the most unpredictable and quixotic prez ever. We all live in a time of rekindling inflation and steadily creeping interest rates. Our society is laced as never before with personal debt and government deficits. There’s an international trade war brewing. Corporate profits are massive by historic measure, global growth is robust and US tax cuts are making titans rich. But it’s also a world where the wealth divide is driving politics, leading to populism, tribalism, nationalism, jingoism and xenophobia. Technology is running rampant, but things like AI, the Internet of Things and autonomous vehicles will forever alter the nature of work. More voter upheaval. Meanwhile many financial markets are near record highs while central banks actively plot to suck back the stimulus that fed them.

In short, the good and the bad surround us. The world’s finally growing again after almost a decade of loss. But it comes atop a mountain of fresh debt and political threats to the monetary policy that enabled it. Thinking you can pick a few stocks, outperform the market, avoid corrections and be the smartest gal in the room is fatal. Sooner or later, after all, individual stocks have a 70% chance of catastrophic loss. You don’t want that happening the year before you retire.

The first defence is to be diversified. Don’t pick six equities, but instead buy one ETF which holds all of the market. For example, the exchange-traded fund XSP gives exposure to the 500 biggest companies in the US – and so, it’s a proxy for the entire American economy. And the fund ZLB provides low-vol exposure to the whole Canadian market, which means about 25% is exposed to our money-spewing banks. Use ETFs to build broad exposure to other needed asset classes, like preferred shares and real estate investment trusts (commercial property).

Being diversified also means avoiding the trap of home country bias. Canada is a cool place, but maple should not make up most of your portfolio. Nor should the US – where Trumpenomics has helped propel equities into nosebleed territory. It’s a big world, in which China is on the path to be the largest economy and Europe has emerged from deflation into growth. So, be diversified and be global.

But also be balanced. The correct mixture of bonds (government, corporate, high-yield and provincial) can reduce volatility substantially. When stocks fall, money doesn’t evaporate. Instead, it moves – usually into safer places, and often into bonds. However, bonds decline as rates rise so mitigate that by going short, plus adding the kind of preferred shares that grow along with the cost of money but still pay a steady (low-taxed) dividend. In the world in which both Allison and retirees live, they equally need balance – with a traditional 60/40 (growth/safe stuff) being the norm.

Investing should be boring. If you want scary unpredictable, vote NDP.

199 comments ↓

#1 TurnerNation on 06.07.18 at 4:48 pm

Toronto getting the first United Nations inspired (mandated?) work/live kamp.

Where have you before seen these tents?

Hint they are not temporary. Even high earners cannot afford housing. This is the new normal.

#worldclass

https://www.blogto.com/city/2018/06/toronto-temporary-homeless-shelters/

You can use it to educate the kids. Noses pressed up against kamp fencing observing the dismal conditions inside. Support the Party kids.

#2 Honey Dripper on 06.07.18 at 4:52 pm

Hey Garth, you used to also have an alternative ETF included with stuff not available elsewhere. Used to be provided by ishares until they delisted.

Any recos in that universe?

#3 Kurt on 06.07.18 at 5:00 pm

“If you want scary unpredictable, vote NDP.”

Says the guy with the business in Ontario, just before a mess of an election. No. If you want scary, vote NDP or Liberal. If you want scary unpredictable, vote PC. If you want not-scary, move.

#4 Loster in Space on 06.07.18 at 5:09 pm

Fantastic article on psychology of money

PS that picture is disgusting

http://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/the-psychology-of-money/

#5 BC West on 06.07.18 at 5:09 pm

Hi Garth – so if a couple hundred thousand isn’t enough to buy individual stocks and be diversified, then how much is? 500k?

Seven figures. – Garth

#6 slam on 06.07.18 at 5:09 pm

“Meanwhile many financial markets are near record highs”

Would you consider at some point in the near term, take some profits from the current highs and be on the sideline until the next correction?

I know people (and some advisors) who have been waiting since 2011. That was a fail. Never exit an asset class. – Garth

#7 conan on 06.07.18 at 5:23 pm

Not many predictions for today’s election in Ontario. That is telling in a way.

My guess:
Liberals= better then predicted
Cons= less then predicted
NDP= less then predicted

#8 Smoking Man on 06.07.18 at 5:24 pm

If the dippers win?. Hahaha not a chance, I think?
Need to start drinking again, my crystal ball is broken.

#9 Penny Henny on 06.07.18 at 5:29 pm

Oh no :(

The poster who used to go by the name of ‘Old Man’ is back…

#187 Movie Date on 06.07.18 at 4:35 pm
#181 conan – Its amusing that you mentioned a movie date. There was this girl staying down the hall whose family sent her from Italy to learn English, and cooked me dinner often. The movie she asked me to take her to see was the Godfather – true story.

#10 Rook on 06.07.18 at 5:29 pm

Garth,
Have you made enough dividends to buy yourself a heart? Your post on June 5th is appalling. How could you speak to someone that is clearly calling out for help. Yes, bad choices were made and there is no easy way out for that individual. The way you handled it was so immature, pompous and without the slightest bit of clarity or wisdom. I don’t expect you to post this comment, but I hope it gives you the slightest pause. People look up to you. Your words have the power to absolutely crush. Don’t be mistaken, it is power. I really do hope this man lands on his feet one day, it certainly wouldn’t be on account of you.

The comments were factual and true. Empathy solves nothing. – Garth

#11 iogitra on 06.07.18 at 5:36 pm

So what will happen when the couch potatoes will get scared of the downturn and sell their holdings (which are ETFs exclusively as it was preached by everybody). I doubt the ETFs gonna hold, but I guess we’ll have to wait and see.
At least TSLA is exhilarating both in driving and investing :-).

#12 YVRvan on 06.07.18 at 5:41 pm

I have XUS instead of XSP. Garth, what are the pros and cons of hedged vs unhedged over a long investment horizon?

#13 Reynolds531 on 06.07.18 at 5:42 pm

I can’t put money in China until it’s transparent and a level playing field.

#14 The real Kip on 06.07.18 at 5:43 pm

“If you want scary unpredictable, vote NDP.”

Yup, done, thanks for reminding me.

#15 Camille on 06.07.18 at 5:46 pm

Eloquent, forceful, wise words. Thank you. Made me, after repeated writings, buy preferred shares. I think bonds are not so well understood. Long bonds offer true insurance. You won’t be able to time your way in, and much of the unwinding has taken place. Interest rates will rise, but then come down. Much literature, regarding diversified, or risk parity portfolios, write of long bonds. I also own US dollar denominated Tips.

#16 earthboundmisfit on 06.07.18 at 5:52 pm

Does your 60/40 ever change, with advancing age?

Yes, at 90. – Garth

#17 Wrk.dover on 06.07.18 at 5:53 pm

Garth, you can use journalism instruction as a back up plan, tonight’s piece (as usual) is scholarship quality perfect.

But you know that.

#18 tccontrarian on 06.07.18 at 5:55 pm

“She wants a portfolio that is all-stock, all the time – based entirely on her personality, her cowgirl attitude and the innate belief she’s bullet-proof because of a long time horizon as an investor.” GT
—————————————————–

Absolutely one of the worst times ever to go long equities! Limited upside (if any), and yuuge downside.
Wait it out girl, until nearly everyone is afraid of losing money in the markets.
********************************************

“I know people (and some advisors) who have been waiting since 2011.”
{The ones waiting since 2011 are clearly clueless.}

“… Never exit an asset class.” – Garth
{Clearly you don’t believe this – you’ve been warning about Canadian Real Estate and the associated risks due to overvaluation!}

I like that Cowgirl attitude though (but that shirt has got to go!)

TCC

#19 Damifino on 06.07.18 at 5:55 pm

Man… that picture! Wrong on so many levels. I’m never going to be the same.

#20 jess on 06.07.18 at 5:56 pm

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-44396781

Set up in 2009 with funding from Microsoft’s Bill Gates and Canada oil sands financier Norman Murray Edwards, their pilot plant has been running since 2015, capturing about one tonne of CO2 per day

Prof Keith’s “useful way” is not to simply suck carbon out of the air but to use the extracted gas as a key raw material for synthetic liquid fuel. The company is currently making around one barrel a day by combining the pure CO2 with hydrogen derived from water, using renewable energy.

“What Carbon Engineering is taking to market is first of all carbon neutral fuels, in that sense we are just another emissions-cutting technology, there is no net removal from the atmosphere,” he said.

“This is a real step forward, and it’s not just our company saying it,” Prof David Keith from Harvard University, and a founder of Carbon Engineering told BBC News.

“I hope this changes views about this technology from being this thing which people think is a magic saviour which it isn’t, or that it is absurdly expensive which it isn’t, to an industrial technology that is do-able and can be developed in a useful way.”

#21 Cristian on 06.07.18 at 6:07 pm

“never gonna have kids”

Ha, ha, ha!!! That’s a good one!
All the guys and gals I’ve seen asking for reversal of vasectomy or reversal of tubal ligation were also thinking this at some point… :-)

#22 kommykim on 06.07.18 at 6:10 pm

I vote NDP and hold ZLB for the Canadian portion of my portfolio. Balance! ;-)

#23 MSM-Free Zone on 06.07.18 at 6:10 pm

“….If you want scary unpredictable, vote NDP…..”
_____________________________

Actually, if you want scary unpredictable, vote Drug Fraud.

His campaign handlers, absolutely terrified of their uneducated, serial-lying, clueless, one-civic-term, grand-standing blowhard add a hat-trick to the record of epic Ontario PC election failures, have done a remarkable job in keeping him muzzled right up to voting day.

Even more weird, the more rabid, right-leaning, ideologically blinded Canadian media (Sun News chain, Nat Post, and convicted non-citizen felon Lord Balk of Crossdresser), ever the championing stewards of less government, less taxes, and balanced budgets, continue to pump a morally bankrupt hypocrite with no costed platform, a simpleton who seems to think that burning a financial candle at both ends is the most ‘efficient’ way to light a province.

Then again, if you have no costed platform to offer today, no member of Ford Nation can call you a liar tomorrow.

#24 Rider McCabe on 06.07.18 at 6:11 pm

Garth, Do you think NAFTA is an actual threat to the Canadian Dividend Investors out there or is it just a paper tiger?

#25 Vik on 06.07.18 at 6:17 pm

Garth, What are your thoughts on Vanguard all in one ETFs.

Never put all your money in a single security. – Garth

#26 not 1st on 06.07.18 at 6:21 pm

I never liked the ford bros until I now see the socialist snowflake SJWs they are fighting in downtown toronto.

I mean voting NDP after Ontario has already amassed a $300B debt should be immediate admission at the nearest mental ward. Millennial no nothings are responsible. Should move the voting age to 40.

#27 Red Allen on 06.07.18 at 6:25 pm

Garth, If the dippers get a majority tonight, will the tsx fall 5%?

#28 Newcomer on 06.07.18 at 6:38 pm

Today’s unintentional irony award goes to:

#26 not 1st on 06.07.18 at 6:21 pm
Millennial no nothings are responsible.

#29 BlogDog123 on 06.07.18 at 6:53 pm

Alright Blogdogs,

** Ontariowe Election Prediction Night **

Libs – 5
Cons – 78
Dippers – 40
Other – 1

What’s your guess ??

#30 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.07.18 at 7:00 pm

@#10 Rook
“How could you speak to someone that is clearly calling out for help…..”
+++++
He asked for advice. He got it.
Was Garth supposed to give him a hug and say “Good job! Better luck next time.”?

#31 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.07.18 at 7:06 pm

@#4 Loster, #19 Damfino, etc.
“that picture is disgusting….”
+++++
Now you know how most people feel at the beach seeing a guy like that.

Interestingly enough. People have the same reaction to “off color” food changed with coloring.
Blue Bananas, Green Porridge, etc.
Repulsive

#32 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.07.18 at 7:10 pm

@#26 definitely not 1st
“Millennial no nothings are responsible. Should move the voting age to 40….”
+++++
Ladies and Gentlemen.
I must apologize for the know nothing Gen X in the front row.

#33 Wallflower on 06.07.18 at 7:18 pm

DELETED

#34 Reynolds531 on 06.07.18 at 7:21 pm

“Never put all you money in one security”

When asked about vanguard ETFs above ie VGRO….what is your specific concern?

Valuation risk at the custodian?

It has after all hundreds of underlying securities. Globally and type diversified. May not be a perfect fit, but as a point and shoot solution for the small investor it is compelling.

If you’re talking $5k, then go for it. But no larger portfolio should be in one security. Ever. And this one ain’t great. – Garth

#35 Stone on 06.07.18 at 7:23 pm

#5 BC West on 06.07.18 at 5:09 pm
Hi Garth – so if a couple hundred thousand isn’t enough to buy individual stocks and be diversified, then how much is? 500k?

Seven figures. – Garth

————

I’m not sure I understand why there’s a need to start dabbling in individual stocks when you hit 7 figures. I used to dabble in stocks pretty successfully but had switched to ETFs. Are the returns as good as when I traded individual stocks? No. Am I more relaxed overall as I don’t fret on an individual stock tanking out of the blue? Yes. Overall, having a basket of ETFs allows me the luxury of not stressing over what I can’t control and gives me the opportunity to focus on other things in my life. All that is required is an occasional rebalancing when the percentages shift to widely. When I eventually retire, do I want to retire only to trade stocks full time? No! There’s a million other things that are far more worthwhile. Why then would anyone want to go back to individual stocks just because they have seven figures? I’m really not getting it and I have a seven figure portfolio.

Where did I say you should buy stocks? The question was at what level might one have enough to create a diversified portfolio with individual equities. – Garth

#36 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.07.18 at 7:28 pm

Libs 7
Cons 55
NDP 60
Other 2

#37 Cheesetoast on 06.07.18 at 7:28 pm

Okay, off to vote for scary unpredictable!

#38 Yuck on 06.07.18 at 7:28 pm

Woof woof that picture – burns the eyes. Looks like she could drop a few pounds, perhaps the shirt would look better!

#39 Erick on 06.07.18 at 7:29 pm

“Her portfolio is a couple of hundred thou – not enough money to achieve diversification buying individual stocks (that takes a few dozen positions, despite what you might think)”

I don’t really understand how a few hundred thou does not allow you to buy a few dozen positions in individual stocks (at a reasonable cost)

Why would you when you can have a properly balanced portfolio with less risk and more predictability? — Garth

#40 Ford For President on 06.07.18 at 7:30 pm

Don’t eat meat, vote for Ford!

#41 Classical Liberal Millennial on 06.07.18 at 7:32 pm

The silent majority will show up today.
PC – 80
NDP – 40
Libs – 4

If Christine had won the leadership it would have been a bloodbath. 100 seats.

#42 ANON on 06.07.18 at 7:33 pm

Fantastic article on psychology of money

Interesting, but misses the point. Money IS psychological. It is merely the promise of more in the future, the trust in the narrative. The narrative splits in many little narratives, like stocks, ETFs, bonds, derivatives, but basically they are all the promise of more in the future from that particular narrative, the continuation of the trend.
When the realization comes, money will be “lost”, or more likely be “stolen” by da’ bad guys. Everyone knows money was there, so someone must have taken it. :)

On the other hand, if all da’ money existed physically as pretty IOU notes, we would carry wheelbarrows around. :)
No way out of deflationary implosion…None.

#43 young & foolish on 06.07.18 at 7:38 pm

I admit Balanced & Diversified makes rational sense … but then why do so many investors (Buffet included) opt for concentrated portfolios largely invested in good quality businesses?

Are you a billionaire? That might change things. – Garth

#44 dr talc on 06.07.18 at 7:43 pm

…..and I’m not the only one who thinks Rob Ford’s death was fake:

http://fakeologist.com/blog/2018/06/07/more-evidence-of-the-rob-ford-death-hoax/

#45 Vancouver Brit on 06.07.18 at 7:44 pm

I’ve been waiting for a compelling argument to move out of a 100% equity portfolio, and alas, this wasn’t it.

Sure, don’t buy individual stocks, that’s a fools game, but Allison never said she was going to do that. She said she has a long time horizon (she does), she can handle high risk (seems likely) and she doesn’t need access to the money anytime soon for something like children. By all intents and purposes, Allison is the exact person that should go in all guns blazing. Now, you could argue Allison may not be prepared for a market crash and her cockiness could be her downfall. But what if she IS prepared, she doesn’t mind seeing her portfolio crash 50%, and she will stick it out?

With everything Allison said, if she can keep her cool in a bear market, she is certainly going to experience better returns than a 60/40 portfolio. The S&P has returned around 10% over history. Show me a 60/40 portfolio that has achieved anything close to that.

I’m in a similar boat to Allison and I see no reason to move out of 100% equity.

#46 Lee on 06.07.18 at 7:45 pm

#29,

65-55-3-1-0 pc-ndp-lib-gr-oth

#47 Westcoaster_mill on 06.07.18 at 7:50 pm

Is nobody else scared of the fact that young Justin is pushing bills to relieve his own personal confusion as a child…. From bill c-16 to c-45 seems like mommy and daddy issues need to be dealt with before this guy ruins our children. I have never considered myself a conservative in the past, i have a criminal record from pot, and still think passing it for recreational purposes is crazy. Do i wish i didnt have a criminal record because i wanted to get stoned as a youngster ya maybe but did that small offence keep me from pursuing a life of crime… hell ya. All the medical marijuana talk is non sense the liberals love sheep just keep lining up!!!

#48 Nonplused on 06.07.18 at 7:51 pm

The advice I would pass along to Allison is the same advice my grandmother gave me many years ago: “Stick to your knitting.” Or in this case plumbing supply business.

Years ago when I was first starting out I did my own portfolio planning and trading as I was first starting to scratch some money together. This was in the days when stock prices were first becoming available for free on the internet so I ended up building an Excel program that could automatically scrape websites for data and run all kinds of technical analysis, mark my portfolio to market ever day, etc. It worked ok but it eventually grew to be a second job. So one day it dawned on me, “why am I putting so much time into this to grow a small amount of money by hopefully maybe 10% per year when I can just get somebody to handle it and get 7%, freeing me up to do more of my regular day job, which currently pays more?” So I did. You need to focus to be successful.

(And anyway all of the features I had laboriously developed myself all those years ago are now available for free on every bank website.)

The right way to look at it is that you shouldn’t try and be a day trader unless you can make more at it per hour than your plumbing (or whatever) business pays. By the sounds of it Allison’s success comes from the plumbing business, not from stock trading, so that is where she should focus. So get a financial adviser like Garth or even a robo-adviser if you don’t have a lot of money yet and go back to your day job.

(I’m speculating Garth doesn’t like robo-advisers but if you only have a small amount of money they work fine. Once you’ve saved enough you can move to a real adviser and it won’t hurt the robot’s feelings.)

Remember folks, the first step in successful investing is to come up with some money to invest. That means job number 1 is to make enough money from your day job to cover expenses and keep the expenses low enough you can put some money in the bank (preferably in a TFSA). These days it’s hard to do, taxes being so high and going higher along with the high cost of housing and living in general, but it’s the only “get rich quick” scheme that’s likely to work without the risk of jail time.

I’ve often talked about the IQ distribution (remember, 50% of the population is below average) especially since seeing a Jordan Peterson video in which he pointed out that 15% of the population is so dumb the army can’t even come up with a job for them. It is pretty profound. But there is also a “skill distribution” among the population for almost any “skill” you can imagine. For example I can do some plumbing, say change a gasket in a leaky tap or solder together 2 copper pipes, but if it has anything to do with plastic pipe count me out. I can use a chain saw but if it’s a big tree that has to be climbed to be felled I’m not going up there. These things apply to all areas of life because we live in an era where we have a “distribution of labor”. Things are so complicated we need experts in every field. You wouldn’t let just anybody perform surgery on your brain, you pay the extra for a brain surgeon. Well, the same applies to investing.

It is an interesting question though why we all think we are experts at the stock market. I think it comes from the same part of the brain that thinks it can beat a VLT.

#49 Shawn Allen on 06.07.18 at 7:54 pm

Never Put it all in One Security?

#25 Vik on 06.07.18 at 6:17 pm
Garth, What are your thoughts on Vanguard all in one ETFs.

Never put all your money in a single security. – Garth

*************************************
An ETF is technically one security in form. But is that true in substance? How much more risk is there in a Vanguard ETF compared to investing in the same 500 or whatever individual stocks? If Vanguard went broke would investors still own the underlying stocks? I don’t know how much risk the Vanguard ETF would have over and above the risk of the underlying stocks but I would think it is very small indeed.

That may or may not be the case for smaller ETF providers. Depends the extent to which the assets are separate from the fund company?

P.S. It is however okay to put all funds with one manager? Is there no risk there? I assume that risk is small because of regulations. Is that risk less than the risk of putting it all in a single a diversified Vanguard ETF? (Vanguard offers balanced ETFs although the balance might not be optimal)

A single ETF is one security issued by one company. No, you do not own one-bazillionth of each company on the S&P 500 if the issuer croaks. The ETF is a product manufactured by the issuer and nobody should ever own just one security. As for placing your funds with a single manager, if that fee-based advisor builds you a balanced diversified portfolio then you’re the registered owner of every asset in that portfolio. They are negotiable. You can take them and sell at any time. The greater risk may be in having multiple advisors and, hence, no integrated tax plan plus potential overlap, duplication and augmented risk. Maybe you should go back to confusing people about lines of credit. – Garth

#50 Molly Coddled Millenial on 06.07.18 at 7:58 pm

WAaaaaa WAaaaaaa WAaaaaaaa

#51 Linda on 06.07.18 at 8:13 pm

That is one androgynous photo.

With the ever increasing reliance on computers, I wonder how long it will be before people are considered obsolete. Certainly it appears that employment is going to be fundamentally altered & that even the well educated may find themselves replaced by a computer algorithm. So the current trends of protectionism, xenophobia, wealth divide etc. are likely to continue which is not to anyone’s benefit. We are definitely living in interesting times.

#52 Joseph R. on 06.07.18 at 8:13 pm

BC West on 06.07.18 at 5:09 pm
Hi Garth – so if a couple hundred thousand isn’t enough to buy individual stocks and be diversified, then how much is? 500k?

Seven figures. – Garth

————————————–

As such, it would be unwise to contribute to an Employee Stock Purchase Plan (ESPP), despite the free money and tax advantages?

Not it you sell when the shares vest. Otherwise you have double risk – employment and investment. – Garth

#53 10 equities on 06.07.18 at 8:17 pm

10 equities, one takes a hit…

Sure, shitty if that happens.

But realistically, isn’t it likely that one of those 10 other equities will surge, for whatever reason, to make up for the loss?

If stocks are down across the board….
even that should not faze Allison!

She can keep collecting her dividends while she awaits the recovery.

“Get paid while you wait” is my slogan.

Go for it, Allison.

#54 is this peak ? on 06.07.18 at 8:29 pm

Garth,
Are you saying we should liquidate our portfolios now and sit on the sides?

I give up. – Garth

#55 Rural Rick on 06.07.18 at 8:31 pm

So any Blog Dogs care to make a prediction on the election?
I am going with PC minority.
How about you?

#56 MF on 06.07.18 at 8:33 pm

#26 not 1st on 06.07.18 at 6:21 p

-The last NDP government in Ontario was in the early 90’s. Millennials were too young to vote back then..so guess who did?

Hint: look in the mirror.

MF

That’s what makes experience. Mistakes. Learn from them. – Garth

#57 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 06.07.18 at 8:33 pm

#54 is this peak ? on 06.07.18 at 8:29 pm
Garth,
Are you saying we should liquidate our portfolios now and sit on the sides?

I give up. – Garth
……………………

Resistance is futile. You will be assimilated.

#58 Reality is stark on 06.07.18 at 8:36 pm

This may sound strange but I believe Doug Ford and Andrea Horwath would make an interesting couple. They both like food. They both have expensive tastes.
They both like to spend other people’s money.
Now as far as bedroom antics go, I prefer not to speculate.

#59 Reynolds531 on 06.07.18 at 8:46 pm

#34 respectfully you didn’t answer my question Garth.

Insert two more quarters. – Garth

#60 Stone on 06.07.18 at 8:53 pm

#35 Stone on 06.07.18 at 7:23 pm
#5 BC West on 06.07.18 at 5:09 pm
Hi Garth – so if a couple hundred thousand isn’t enough to buy individual stocks and be diversified, then how much is? 500k?

Seven figures. – Garth

————

I’m not sure I understand why there’s a need to start dabbling in individual stocks when you hit 7 figures. I used to dabble in stocks pretty successfully but had switched to ETFs. Are the returns as good as when I traded individual stocks? No. Am I more relaxed overall as I don’t fret on an individual stock tanking out of the blue? Yes. Overall, having a basket of ETFs allows me the luxury of not stressing over what I can’t control and gives me the opportunity to focus on other things in my life. All that is required is an occasional rebalancing when the percentages shift to widely. When I eventually retire, do I want to retire only to trade stocks full time? No! There’s a million other things that are far more worthwhile. Why then would anyone want to go back to individual stocks just because they have seven figures? I’m really not getting it and I have a seven figure portfolio.

Where did I say you should buy stocks? The question was at what level might one have enough to create a diversified portfolio with individual equities. – Garth

———

Thank you. That makes more sense.

#61 mark on 06.07.18 at 8:53 pm

Not everyone is a Weenie, some want the biggest bang and that’s all stock etfs.

Everybody’s a weenie when markets correct, especially the all-stock guys. – Garth

#62 Cannabis Man on 06.07.18 at 8:58 pm

DOUG FORD wins by a majority!

Just to be accurate, you posted that 42 seconds after polls closed. – Garth

#63 ndpetf on 06.07.18 at 9:00 pm

If you want scary unpredictable, vote NDP.-Garth”

is there an ETF for that?

#64 scarynhairy on 06.07.18 at 9:01 pm

Hate to see the hair below the belt-line

#65 not 1st on 06.07.18 at 9:14 pm

#32 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.07.18 at 7:10 pm

You are probably sitting there at home trying to rationalize your vote for the NDP. Its ok if the province is $500B in debt as long as you get free caps your hipster teeth.

#66 Petawawa Renter on 06.07.18 at 9:14 pm

So she’s 32 and doesn’t want kids…

I find most of the women I’ve known tend to grow out of that phase once they hit their early 30’s and realize that the ‘tick if the clock’ is getting louder. Give it a few years and she’ll either be in full on panic-mode or cat-lady territory. Time will tell.

Either way, it’s a shame. She’s obviously smart and talented enough to save that sort of money by 32, and like most professional women I’ve met: don’t want kids. Yet these are exactly the sort of people that should be having them, because I know more drop-outs and bums with kids than without… I thought ‘Idiocracy’ was supposed to be a funny movie and not a documentary.

https://youtu.be/YwZ0ZUy7P3E

I fear for the future. Not so much my future, because my portfolio is balanced.

There are 7.6 billion people in the world, and 152 million more every year. Maybe we have too many babies. – Garth

#67 Smoking Man on 06.07.18 at 9:16 pm

Yeah looks like a PC majority. Now I just need to concentrate Go Knights Go.

#68 Premiere DoFo DeWalt on 06.07.18 at 9:16 pm

Hopefully he channels his inner ROFO… let the mayhem begin… mayhem is better than the commies any day.

#69 not 1st on 06.07.18 at 9:16 pm

Bye bye Wynn. Time to polish your resume. Heard the TTC is hiring greeters for their washrooms.

#70 Long-Time Lurker on 06.07.18 at 9:22 pm

#177 RG on 06.07.18 at 3:38 pm

“Interest today rewards no genuine sacrifice, any more than does the rent of land.” — Keynes

Bring on the euthansia of the rentier! Figuratively speaking of course ;)

>Wrong, Keynes. How did they get the financial instrument or land in the first place?

#148 IHCTD9 on 06.07.18 at 11:59 am

…Millennial guys I’ve never met were walking up and complimenting my beard…

>Ryan and Doug are you reading this?

#71 Blacksheep on 06.07.18 at 9:28 pm

YES!!!

#72 Tsx futures up tomorrow on 06.07.18 at 9:29 pm

Bye bye hipster losers…. PC is back in power finally

Trudeau on the chopping block next….

#73 PastThePeak on 06.07.18 at 9:30 pm

Well, the orange wave needs to wait for another day. While that is undeniably a positive for the province, so far the PC’s haven’t indicated any financial sense at all (other than not to promise to kill private business as the NDP were going to).

If in 4 years there has not been a halt to growing the debt, we know the province is not going to pull out of the slide…

#74 AK on 06.07.18 at 9:33 pm

12 minutes after the polls closed, a PC majority government has been declared.

So much for all the CNN fake polls.

#75 Reynolds531 on 06.07.18 at 9:34 pm

#49

Garth, the answer you gave here is actually wrong. ETFs are mutual fund trusts. If the issuer goes belly up, you do indeed own one bazillionth of each underlying security. Those securities are held by the custodian for benefit of the unit holders.

Exactly the same as your broker going bankrupt. Assets are segregated from assets of the firm. Unless your stocks are out on loan etc. But in that case the collateral would make you whole.

It would take weeks but you would get your value out of a collapsed mutual fund.

#76 Darryl on 06.07.18 at 9:40 pm

blue wave
yah baby . Take that SCM . Unfortunate that the Liberals still seem to have party status .

#77 Game Over on 06.07.18 at 9:42 pm

I guess it’s safe for Ford to lay out the spending cuts needed to pay for their costed platform lol

#78 Retired on a Gulf Island on 06.07.18 at 9:43 pm

I don’t understand your comments (nos. 25, 34, 49) advising against investing in “one security” in the context of Vanguard’s new Canadian ETFs:

https://www.vanguardcanada.ca/individual/etfs/about-our-asset-allocation-etfs.htm?

They appear to me to provide great diversification over many different equity markets, as well diversification in the fixed income component. They automatically rebalance and have a low MER (.22%). The only decision to make is the equity/fixed income ratio – 80/20, 60/40, or 40/60.

My wife and I have several million dollars invested right now and our present plan is to gradually acquire a lot of VGRO or VBAL without disrupting our portfolios.

#79 Blacksheep on 06.07.18 at 9:46 pm

“There are 7.6 billion people in the world, and 152 million more every year.”

“Maybe we have too many babies. – Garth”
—————————
Ding, ding, ding…

This is why I know taxing society based on carbon, is absolute bullshit.

If humans really are the source of the problematic “carbon,” why are there no real world, main stream convo’s discussing limiting population growth?

Why not make is socially unacceptable to pump out 5 kids like hypocrite David Suzuki?

Not to mention his 4 houses.

Cause its just an excuse to tax more…

#80 Voting In Ontario on 06.07.18 at 9:47 pm

It matters not who you vote for anymore, because all that matters is who is counting the votes. Electronic machines and vote counters were used this year. The days of the paper ballot are history.

#81 Chaddywack on 06.07.18 at 9:48 pm

FORD!!

All I can hope is the federal results mimic the Ontario ones in a year’s time.

JT needs to be dumped next.

#82 Fake News Again on 06.07.18 at 9:50 pm

PROOF Socialism is a SCAM and a FAILURE……..

I give you President Donald Trump and Premier Doug Ford

#83 mike from mtl on 06.07.18 at 9:54 pm

#12 YVRvan on 06.07.18 at 5:41 pm
I have XUS instead of XSP. Garth, what are the pros and cons of hedged vs unhedged over a long investment horizon?
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Not Garth here but my rule is never, EVER, hedge on poloz peso. Over the long run this works out, unless you day trade and are FOREX knowledgeable, don’t mess with it.

Unhedged all the way.

btw, XUS is like US total VUN/VTI and XSP is sp500 VOO/VFV.

#84 Newcomer on 06.07.18 at 10:00 pm

Game on!

Now we have a control to measure the GreenDP housing policies against.

#85 MF on 06.07.18 at 10:06 pm

#56 MF on 06.07.18 at 8:33 pm

“That’s what makes experience. Mistakes. Learn from them. – Garth”

-I always vote PC. Learned from my parents in the 90’s. My comment was directed at the previous poster’s ageist comment.

MF

#86 Myra Andrews on 06.07.18 at 10:06 pm

Greater Vancouver Stats from realtor Paul

June 7 New 232 Sold 117 TI; 12,226
June 6 New 295 Sold 156 TI: 12,154
June 5 New 359 Sold 101 TI: 12,105
June 4 New 376 Sold 117 TI: 11,942

June 1 New 224 Sold 105 TI: 11,817
May 31 New 208 Sold 109 TI: 11,975
May 30 New 286 Sold 113 TI: 11,964
May 29 New 303 Sold 158 TI: 11,882
May 28 no post from Paul

May 25 New 210 Sold 123 TI: 11,697
May 24 New 231 Sold 128 TI: 11,676
May 23 New 328 Sold 144 TI: 11,613
May 22 New 477 Sold 143 TI: 11,496

May 18 New 226 Sold 119 TI 11,208
May 17 New 191 Sold 110 TI 11,161
May 16 New 235 Sold 147 TI 11,133
May 15 New 315 Sold 178 TI 11,127
Hi May 14 New 302 Sold 124 TI 11,052

May 11 New 183 Sold 132 TI 10,935
May 10 New 229 Sold 126 TI 10,957
May 9 New 309 Sold 172 TI 10,914
May 8 New 318 Sold 117 TI 10,835
May 7 New 389 Sold 131 TI 10,697

May 4 New 191 Sold 110 TI 10,540
May 3 New 213 Sold 103 TI 10,503
May 2 New 268 Sold 146 TI 10,481
May 1 New 363 Sold 134 TI 10,420
Apr 30 New 375 Sold 163 TI 10,459

April 16-27 New 2453 Sold 1224 TI 10,347
April 3-13 New 2111 Sold 916 TI 9,727

Mar 19-29 New 1834 Sold 1072 TI 9,032
Mar 5-16 New 2248 Sold 1224 TI 8,743

The inventory at the end of February was 8,211

#87 Sask to AB on 06.07.18 at 10:09 pm

Thank you for this excellent post–greatly appreciated.

#88 Ace Goodheart on 06.07.18 at 10:09 pm

Conservative landslide folks. I believe I called this.

Ontario always swings right when things get too socialist.

Very predictable province

#89 Spectacle on 06.07.18 at 10:12 pm

#54 is this peak ? on 06.07.18 at 8:29 pm
Garth,
Are you saying we should liquidate our portfolios now and sit on the sides?

I give up. – Garth
———————– what meant was…. ——————-

Sit on our balanced , diversified Portfolios, ….and sit on the side, consuming Liquids!

#90 Bonds ? on 06.07.18 at 10:14 pm

Not a chance !

All equities .

#91 Lost...but not leased on 06.07.18 at 10:17 pm

Trump is 4 th best ever leader in North America…after:

(i) Richard Nixon
(ii) Joe Clark
(iii)Kim Campbell

#92 Paul on 06.07.18 at 10:19 pm

I think the average investor would be fine with just three ETFs; VCN (Canada), XAW (All world ex-Canada) and VAB (Bonds, about 80% govt, the rest corp). MERs are low and you can adjust your asset allocation how you like. You can asset allocate how you want. JUST STICK WITH THE PLAN!

If you can’t a boring fund like MAW104 should be fine for most despite the high MER.

Finally, if you begin to max out your registered accounts it would probably be wise to give Garth a call. Tax avoidance, and withholding taxes would begin to come into play.

When it comes to investing most times the greatest detriment to success is yourself.

#93 joblo on 06.07.18 at 10:27 pm

“If the Conservatives win, it’s big trouble for T2 a year before the next federal election, ”

Garth, I really hope your right :)

#94 yvr_lurker on 06.07.18 at 10:29 pm

Thankfully I am a YVR lurker and not from the GTA. People there have, however, spoken; They have decided to embrace the Ford nation and welcome what is likely to be the daily shit-show (ala Trump-style) that will result from having a semi-literate dude (former drug guy) who will likely bring forth bring all sorts of corruption, under the table dealings and scandals. Hopefully, he will be tamer than his brother. Good luck to you all; the 3 choices were indeed all rather flawed for sure. I am happy that I live out here where the NDP-Green’s are doing a good job and rate well in the Polls. No I’m not some disgruntled 30 year old; just someone who hates seeing the daily shit-show that is going on in the US night after night. Makes me want to change the TV channel every night. A repeat of this Canadian style from Ontario will be a disaster.

#95 CalgaryCarGuy on 06.07.18 at 10:30 pm

Re #66

There are 7.6 billion people in the world, and 152 million more every year. Maybe we have too many babies. – Garth.——————-

——————————————————————

BINGO!! The number one best answer to a huge number of world problems. The elephant in the room. If every couple in the world had only ONE child our influence on the earth’s environment would be reduced by 50% in a hundred years. Not gonna happen soon though. Politicians don’t touch this topic.

#96 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.07.18 at 10:36 pm

@#65 3rd
“Its ok if the province is $500B in debt as long as you get free caps your hipster teeth.”
+++++
Nah . I voted NDP to get rid of Christy ( no Corporate contract shall go unawarded) Clark.
As for my Hippie tooth….. Its a little loose.
Like your grasp on reality

#97 Garth Gate on 06.07.18 at 10:37 pm

Meddling in the election.

Can’t wait for the foreign buyer tax to come off. re-direct the foreign investment East away from the West.

#98 IHCTD9 on 06.07.18 at 10:38 pm

#73 PastThePeak on 06.07.18 at 9:30 pm
Well, the orange wave needs to wait for another day. While that is undeniably a positive for the province, so far the PC’s haven’t indicated any financial sense at all (other than not to promise to kill private business as the NDP were going to).

If in 4 years there has not been a halt to growing the debt, we know the province is not going to pull out of the slide…
————-

Exactly, we don’t really know what we’ve got yet. The red and orange were guaranteed financial destruction, but DF is a mystery on that front – could be the same thing.

My bet is continued deficits, increased debt, maybe less tax increases. That’s still bad news in the long run.

#99 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.07.18 at 10:40 pm

Is it true?
Has General Zod’s evil twin Doug won?

#100 islander on 06.07.18 at 10:45 pm

Boy Garth…. haven’t seen a picture like on yer blog since those 3 (?)buxom gals on the back porch……….after that it was all dogs, dogs, dogs…..
This pic looks like a cross between a woman and a dog!
Do I sense a frisson of alarm………has the worm turned in our investment nirvana… are we in for an ‘adjustment’………..?
BTW enjoy the next few years with ‘dirty’ Doug!
And thanks, as always….

#101 Victor V on 06.07.18 at 10:47 pm

BREAKING: Kathleen Wynne says she is resigning as leader of the Ontario Liberal Party

#102 berniebee on 06.07.18 at 11:05 pm

#94 CalgaryCarGuy “BINGO!! The number one best answer to a huge number of world problems. ”

Of course if that were to happen, you would have to find investments other than real estate or equities.

Not saying I entirely disagree with you, but the problem with low birthrate is that business does not expand, and your pension has fewer payers.

#103 Generation Why on 06.07.18 at 11:05 pm

I’m surprised nobodies weighted in on C45 so far.

Like Allison my portfolio is mostly equities, & tonight I’m breathing a sigh of relief.

I bet the farm on pot stocks several times over the past few years on my personal pet project how to turn a Hyundai elantra into a 997t. Freedom 35 is a real thing.

I’ve been lurking for the better part of the past 6 years this blog & read 5 of your books so far. Check on the blog near daily and appreciate the comment section regulars. I’m very reluctant to call myself a millennial, as I do see a generation gap between the Saturday morning cartoons ninja turtles/power rangers/dragon ball Z there’s a difference, & yet most are broke. If you’re done anything over the past few years it’s been keeping me afraid to dip my toes into real estate, and advice not to use my RRSP as a roulette table. One of the lessons stuck so far…

Seeing a few hundred percent gains on select stocks (I’ did my homework on for years & practiced patience) pays off especially when playing with the ‘house’ money. If I’d done the strategy with a heloc I’d be a millionaire already.

#104 Terry on 06.07.18 at 11:15 pm

Great Job Mr Ford!

A PC Majority for Ontario and a great start to say to Trudeau “One and Done” as Canada gets rid of the Federal Liberals in 2019!

No victory on new trade deals with the U.S. until the Liberals are gone!

#105 Petawawa Renter on 06.07.18 at 11:17 pm

“There are 7.6 billion people in the world, and 152 million more every year. Maybe we have too many babies. – Garth”

Perhaps you’re right. Canada’s birth rate is 1.6 babies per woman. The rate in the EU is 1.58. The US? 1.8. All well below replacement levels. If population numbers are truly a problem, and humans cause anthropogenic global warming, then why are we importing 300,000 of them every year? Sounds like schizophrenic policy to me. Maybe an economist can explain that infinite growth is great.

Allison is arguably in the top 5% of income earners on the planet, and can provide an education, opportunities, and a life for a child that billions of people the world over would kill for. Yet like many in her bracket, chooses not to. I just don’t get it.

I hope her money keeps good company.

#106 KLNR on 06.07.18 at 11:25 pm

The circus is back in town folks.

#107 Bytor the Snow Dog on 06.07.18 at 11:35 pm

#79 Voting In Ontario on 06.07.18 at 9:47 pm sez:

“It matters not who you vote for anymore, because all that matters is who is counting the votes. Electronic machines and vote counters were used this year. The days of the paper ballot are history.”
————————————————–
Wrong, dog breath. All of the paper ballots were kept securely in the counting machine after being read by the scanner. An indisputable paper trail.

Welcome to Premier Doug Ford.

#108 Nonplused on 06.07.18 at 11:50 pm

So the conservatives win in Ontario. That’s good, it means they will go off the debt cliff Selma and Louise style in 3rd gear rather than 4th or 5th. Don’t think it makes a whole lot of difference other than that.

#109 Stan Brooks on 06.08.18 at 12:07 am

Liberal scumbags are out after setting the province with record debt. The witch has left the building.

Too bad the newly elected PC is not much better. NDP probably even worse.

What a choice to have.

#110 aa5 on 06.08.18 at 12:11 am

I don’t see Ontario running large deficits. I know all 3 parties and the public would like to continue running large deficits for obvious reasons.

But the creditors already reduced down what the Ontario Liberals were able to borrow over the past few years.

#111 slick on 06.08.18 at 12:26 am

blogdog123;
Alright Blogdogs,

** Ontariowe Election Prediction Night **

Libs – 5
Cons – 78
Dippers – 40
Other – 1

What’s your guess ??
As my grandma used to say,
‘that is about as close as damn is to swearing’

#112 Smoking Man on 06.08.18 at 12:57 am

Vegas tomorrow dogs. My knights are throwing a huge party. Sucks they lost. I’m happy for Ovy. He deserves it.

Now I don’t have to rip my appt apart looking for my 500 to 1 fifty dollar ticket, that bet on the knights winning the cup.

Ford wins. Justin the girl groper is next to go down.

If in the land of cbc weirdos could not stop Ford. Trump will kill insanity in the mid terms.

Life is getting good.

Periscope in vegas. Action can be followed here.
@SmokingMan

On Linked In
Jim Stojsin.
My friends call me Stoj.

Your serve JohneeBoy. James, Grvey Train..

I’m board.

#113 Ustabe on 06.08.18 at 1:04 am

To those of you celebrating because “your guys” won and to those of you sad because yours did not remember one thing.

Doug Ford and the OPC are neither the problem, nor a solution. He and they are a symptom. A symptom of the general public failing to properly use a Parliamentary democracy by elevating these types of people.

All of you all in Ontario are in for some tumultuous years.

Doug Ford doesn’t give a shit about you or the ground you walk upon. He cares about himself. You will see…soon.

#114 Newcomer on 06.08.18 at 1:27 am

#94 CalgaryCarGuy on 06.07.18 at 10:30 pm
Re #66

There are 7.6 billion people in the world, and 152 million more every year. Maybe we have too many babies. – Garth.——————-

——————————————————————

BINGO!!
………
Politicians don’t touch this topic.
———-

They do, but what they say is always the opposite of what you and Garth are saying because population growth is never a problem. The issue that gets addressed by politicians is declining population because that messes with the economy. That’s why many European counties have incentives to get people to have babies. When counties reach a certain level of prosperity the birth rate drops below the replacement rate. For example, in Canada, only 8 babies are born for every 10 people. Of course, all 10 of those people will die, so the population would shrink by 2 if it weren’t for immigrants. Also, as people are living longer, the decrease in population is delayed. This trend is universal and so, as more counties join the global middle class, there will be less and less population growth. Within 80 years, when the people being born now start to die, it will be a major problem. Enjoy rising world population and the economic benefits it brings while you can.

#115 jas on 06.08.18 at 1:30 am

Thank God we in Ontario are saved !!
its an event of no less significance than this planet escaping a close encounter with an alien body from outer space.
Whew!!!

#116 crossbordershopper on 06.08.18 at 1:44 am

so the girl ally doesnt want children. obviously she is only thinking about herself, and as parents we at times wanted to strnagle our children, we wouldnt give them up for anything.
no children, where have we come to, who cares about her life, it will end in about 50 years or so and then you know what, guess what her nieces and nephews will take her stuff. just like that, what does she think she is working for, herself, a diversifed portfolio ? its completeley irrelevent and a major problem white people have in general.
this self interested thing will get you no where, yes its your life and you can live in without children etc, all i know is i have been in homes of a lovely 92 year old single lady never married no kids while her nephew takes over her stuff litterly and she goes into a home. .thats how it all ends ally, alone and dimensia in a home. i was there last week seeing it for myself.
this lady had about a million, i calculated she should of had 10 she only had 1 i thought was kinda poor, how can a lady 92 who never got sick in her life, lived fairly frugely, until the recent year or two. but regarldess of the amount, it goes to crappola.
what a stupid way to live and plan your life, you think alley cat will know what experiences she had in her youth, your brain and boddy go to mush you dont even know where you have been what you did, its all useless go ahead, buy your stock portfolio, who cares
my advice roll the dice and go for the moon shot, try to be a billionaire, this pocket change stuff is irrelevent

#117 Oft deleted much maligned stock.picker on 06.08.18 at 2:30 am

Will the latest Revelations of Justin Trudeau’s sex offense(s) result in his stepping down….or will he be charged and stand trial…. Will Justin react to news of his own offensive illegal behaviour as he has with all others?

Will he defend himself saying…” I wouldn’t have done it if I’d known she was a national journalist”? What about any other girl who wasn’t a national journalist (#youtoo) coming forward now….healthy and cathartic for the country don’t you think? Fess up Justin….do the right thing and give us a good cry on the way out. After all you flamed so many others people’s carreer. And Justin, you’ve sold yourself as the anti Trump and said Trump was awful because he dis the same thing as you’ve admitted to…..resign because you’re better than him.

#118 Karma on 06.08.18 at 2:32 am

Garth,

Your boy, Alan Angell is issuing threats against elected officials…

https://twitter.com/bluenose1989/status/1004937424848355328?s=21

Not my guy. – Garth

#119 New Era on 06.08.18 at 3:36 am

“…ding, dong, the witch is dead ! ”

Here’s hoping the PCs can start to get us back on the “Yellow Brick Road ”

It’s a new era …

#120 boysofgreaterfool on 06.08.18 at 4:14 am

There are 7.6 billion people in the world, and 152 million more every year. Maybe we have too many babies. – Garth”

Garth unfortunately, very few of those carry your genetics or bloodline as most come from developing countries like India or China. Maybe you can produce a few rugrats in your later years, just to keep the rest of the planet on its toes, of course.

#121 Oft deleted much maligned stock.picker on 06.08.18 at 4:35 am

#52 Victor…..I started with less than a thousand dollars.
Rent money included. Used a hall phone between classes to trade. No internet or cell phones then. Taking extreme risk sharpens the pencil. Stock markets are not a social services diaper for the stupid and lazy. I read every shelf in the library…..took several business degrees , certs and charters….stupid rich today….anyone can do it if they get serious about investing.

#122 SimplyPut7 on 06.08.18 at 4:44 am

#66 Petawawa Renter on 06.07.18 at 9:14 pm
#94 CalgaryCarGuy on 06.07.18 at 10:30 pm

Women are not afraid anymore of their biological clock running out, they can always adopt children, not every woman needs to be pregnant to be a mom. Nor have they decided to take one for the team and not have kids because they are concerned about the environment and overpopulating Earth.

The next generation of women is enjoying the freedom and extra money and time that comes from not having kids. There is less stigma from the younger generations, especially in Western countries than in past generations about single women or women who are married and choose not to have children.

They can work longer hours and advance their careers without worries that a pregnancy or maternity leave will cause them to miss out on a promotion at work. They can move to a new city and take a better job without family and friends calling them selfish for uprooting the kids to pursue their own dreams. They can spoil their nieces, nephews and younger cousins by taking them to places and buying gifts their parents could afford to do all the time. They have more money to give to charity and other causes that make them feel like they are contributing to society in the same way a family with children will raise children that grow into adults that contribute to society.

The population of Earth starts to decrease after 2100 as a result of families choosing to have fewer kids. Advances in technology and education which have lead to better standards of living across the world have contributed to the decline. Only countries in Africa have population growth above their natural replacement levels, even China is having trouble getting families to have more children to reduce the chance the aging population and shrinking working population will decrease economic growth.

#123 Blobby on 06.08.18 at 4:50 am

If you want scary and unpredictable – vote a Ford!

Oh oooh, they did! Far less scary than ndp apparently!

Can’t wait to see this one … well previous history tells me this won’t end well

Meanwhile in bc.., the ndp are doing a great job ! Not a single thing they have done so far that I disagree with! And polls seem to say the same

#124 Howard on 06.08.18 at 4:52 am

In the end it wasn’t even that close. A 7-point gap is a solid win in our electoral system.

I’m no fan of Doug Ford and I especially did not like his statement about axing the FBT (let’s hope he conveniently “forgets” that one).

At the very least, he will likely halt or at least slow the theft of private sector wealth and (stagnant) incomes to fund obscene public sector salaries and benefits.

#125 Gravy Train on 06.08.18 at 6:09 am

#81 Fake News Again on 06.07.18 at 9:50 pm
“PROOF Socialism is a SCAM and a FAILURE…….. I give you President Donald Trump….”

Hey, genius baby! Both The Wall Street Journal and The U.S. Chamber of Commerce state that Trump’s tariffs and the tearing up of NAFTA will cost millions of U.S. jobs. Are you calling these bastions of American enterprise leftist? If so, you’re simply nuts!

You’re obviously not an investor—or even conservative, for that matter—since these tariffs will lower corporate profits and share prices. The inflationary effects (of the tariffs) will cause the Fed to put upward pressure on interest rates, which in turn will put the brakes on the economy and further lower share prices. Any first-year economics student could tell you that.

Do you even read Garth’s posts, you genius baby? He disagrees with everything you write. Why do you even comment on this blog?

Your moniker suits you to a tee: Whenever I read your posts, I think to myself, “Fake news again!”

#126 New Era on 06.08.18 at 6:20 am

to #116 Oft

Don’t bet on it.
This self aggrandizing marxist only signals virtue – you don’t expect him to actually be virtuous do you?

Also, the story so far has not found traction in the MSM, and probably won’t as the CBC and other marxist publications ignore it.

And what about the interview with his wife who admitted to his having had an affair and that “..it was good for their relationship. She did not specify if it was a woman or a man involved. Many people I have spoken with consider Sophie to be a “beard”.

#127 TRUMP on 06.08.18 at 6:26 am

FORD NATION !!!!

TRUMP COUNTRY !!!!

She’s gonna be Douzzee.

#128 Be Realistic on 06.08.18 at 6:36 am

I have a similar portfolio to what Garth is suggesting, ETFs and bonds. However my current ratio is 70/30 given my “younger” age. I will move to 60/40 eventually. YOY my portfolio has netted me 11%, not bad.

As for Doug Ford, it will be interesting to see where he plans to find these “inefficiencies” in order to pay for his promises. That is if he even delivers on any of them. If the speculation tax goes, I think we’ll see the RE prices get a bump for sure – especially in the 905.

#129 FATLADY on 06.08.18 at 6:44 am

Garth – Your recommendation that one should not have a diversified balanced portfolio of individual securities until 7 figures is totally incorrect.

You have stressed so many times how so many people especially the younger generation shy from the stock market and are too wrapped up in Real Estate but then discourage the same group from getting into the stock markets???

Note: I opened an account with Questrade 9 years ago with the minimum allowed- 1000 bucks. Through regular contributions and studying the stock market and individual companies I have well over A MILLION in there an climbing.

YOUR SENDING THE WRONG MESSAGE

Congratulations on the investments. Now learn how to read. – Garth

#130 Howard on 06.08.18 at 6:45 am

#103 Terry on 06.07.18 at 11:15 pm

Great Job Mr Ford!

A PC Majority for Ontario and a great start to say to Trudeau “One and Done” as Canada gets rid of the Federal Liberals in 2019!

No victory on new trade deals with the U.S. until the Liberals are gone!

—————————————–

Ontario and federal governing parties are usually opposites. Has been that for most of the last century. Ford’s win actually HELPS Trudeau, politically. Not saying the Liberals can’t lose next year but this new Ontario government makes it a more difficult task to defeat them.

#131 big dog on 06.08.18 at 6:48 am

hhahaha to the libs…. the feds are next bye bye trudeau… maybe we can get some major primary industry projetcs going…thats money to the country…like a second pipeline to the EAST …. and the RING OF FIRE…. go canada go… bye bye crying baby trudeau….

#132 Cottingham a bargain on 06.08.18 at 7:27 am

Women proclaiming that they don’t want kids . What a joke, that gave me laugh.

Every woman eventually gets the same affliction as she continues to age and it’s called “ baby rabies” . Causes mad rush for sperm donor. Men watchout for this condition. Can ruin your life too.

As sure as death and taxes , no woman escapes it

That was enlightened. – Garth

#133 globally balnced portfolio on 06.08.18 at 7:37 am

more red after today

barely up 1% ytd

#134 Tater on 06.08.18 at 7:38 am

#43 young & foolish on 06.07.18 at 7:38 pm
I admit Balanced & Diversified makes rational sense … but then why do so many investors (Buffet included) opt for concentrated portfolios largely invested in good quality businesses?

Are you a billionaire? That might change things. – Garth
—————————————————————-
Berkshire owns nearly 200 different public equities and over 1000 fixed income securities.

#135 Tater on 06.08.18 at 7:48 am

#77 Retired on a Gulf Island on 06.07.18 at 9:43 pm
I don’t understand your comments (nos. 25, 34, 49) advising against investing in “one security” in the context of Vanguard’s new Canadian ETFs:

https://www.vanguardcanada.ca/individual/etfs/about-our-asset-allocation-etfs.htm?

They appear to me to provide great diversification over many different equity markets, as well diversification in the fixed income component. They automatically rebalance and have a low MER (.22%). The only decision to make is the equity/fixed income ratio – 80/20, 60/40, or 40/60.

My wife and I have several million dollars invested right now and our present plan is to gradually acquire a lot of VGRO or VBAL without disrupting our portfolios.
—————————————————————
Have you read the prospectus? The answer is in there.

#136 Mike on 06.08.18 at 7:53 am

“Maybe you should go back to confusing people about lines of credit. – Garth”

Wow, someone call an ambulance for Shawn Allen. Dude just got steamrolled!

#137 the Jaguar on 06.08.18 at 7:55 am

Wow. You read #115 Cross Border Shopper and you really begin to understand what Jordan Peterson means when he talks about the 10%. Don’t bother showing up for induction into the US Army Cross Border Shopper. You clearly score below 83 percentile.

#138 Glengarry Girl on 06.08.18 at 8:09 am

#93 yvr_lurker

I agree, I am from Ontario and I travel and live in both Countries, my heart is in Canada. When I’m in the States, the whole MAGA thing gets me down. Trump is a Clown and the people that love him are mostly hypocrites. I’ve lost friends over Politics in the US, the gun reform debate pushed me over the edge. The Americans love of guns and their newly empowered hatred of immigrants has peaked. So every summer I get myself back home to my beloved Country where I feel Freedom again. Now I come home to a Family debate about Ford and how he will save Ontario from the evil Liberals and I feel nauseated. How the immigrants are the reason for our troubles, not government mismanagement and corruption. Doug Ford just screams Shady Shyster. The parallels are so similar that I can’t ignore them. What the REAL problem in the World is Inequality, Greed and corruption of the Wealthy who use the politicians to get what they want. The Rich get richer and the rest are pitted against each other blaming immigrants for their decline. Our advantage and strength in Canada is our inclusiveness and our diversity. I’m also thankful that we don’t have the worship of Guns and Football imbedded like a Religion. Gawd I hope our Thanksgiving dinners aren’t arguing about Politics. I hope that when I return home every year I notice a difference, I really hate to see what’s happening to Americans. Also, feet on the ground, Donald Trump’s is not making America great again, in fact it kind of sucks there right now.

#139 Conspiratard on 06.08.18 at 8:18 am

Organic matter found on Mars.

The Capitals win the cup, after unknown forces interrupt and manipulate the countdown clock, confusing Las Vegas and ruining their chances of a comeback.

Doug Ford elected Premier in a surprise landslide.

Anthony Bourdain found dead this morning.

Random events? You must be kidding!

Coincidence? I think not.

I think not.

#140 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.08.18 at 8:27 am

Anthony Bourdain?!?!?!?!?
Unbelievable.

#141 Capt. Serious on 06.08.18 at 8:47 am

#79 Voting In Ontario on 06.07.18 at 9:47 pm
It matters not who you vote for anymore, because all that matters is who is counting the votes. Electronic machines and vote counters were used this year. The days of the paper ballot are history.

Did you vote? I assure you that a paper ballot is what I found at the polling booth, and that was read by a machine, and they keep all the paper ballots in case of recounts.

Really that is the best of both worlds. Simple for the voter. Easy to tally the votes.

#142 James on 06.08.18 at 8:47 am

#30 Smoking Man on 05.30.18 at 7:33 pm
It’s going to be another Golden Knight…
WRONG!

#98 Smoking Man on 06.06.18 at 3:09 am
I’m cool with a NDP win.
Got loot, patients and ready to vultch after they destroy real estate and the equity markets in Canada.
Safe in my compound banking USD…

WRONG!
Two for two Smoking Man.
Stay in Socal we have this all under control here now. No vultching for you Smoking Man. Funny you should be a vultching type of personality. A particular characteristic of many vultures is a bald head, devoid of normal feathers. Although it has been historically believed to help keep the head clean when feeding, the bare skin may play an important role in thermoregulation.Vultures have been observed to hunch their bodies and tuck in their heads in the cold, and open their wings and stretch their necks in the heat. Vultures also use urine as a way to keep themselves cool by urinating on themselves. Yes that makes sense.

#143 Gonkman on 06.08.18 at 8:48 am

#123 globally balnced portfolio on 06.08.18 at 7:37 am
more red after today
barely up 1% ytd

********************************************

You are doing it wrong..

I am up +3.2% YTD as of this morning.

Hire Garth or educate yourself better. Hope you didn’t invest in Unicorn Food before the election.

The Orange Crush has been cancelled and Unicorn Food Futures tanked last night…

I hear Kleenex Futures are on the rise though to sop up all those Lefty Tears.

Ontario has spoken! Go Ford Nation!

#144 New Era on 06.08.18 at 8:52 am

to # 128 Glen Garry Goil

“…not government mismanagement and corruption.”

Which happened during 15 years of Liberals in power in Ontario and 8 years under Obama. That is what Canada and US society is ailing from.

Truedope and the Obamanation did more to cause divisiveness in their respective countries than anyone in recent history.

It’s a new era …

You must have voted NDP in Ontario and / or Democrat in the USA. Now you have another defeat to cry about for the next few years.

#145 maxx on 06.08.18 at 8:54 am

#47 Westcoaster_mill on 06.07.18 at 7:50 pm

Interesting take….wondered the same thing myself a few times. At any rate, given the track record to date, the PM’s msm visuals remind of a handful of lines from the song “Hey-Ya”:

“You think you’ve got it
Oh, you think you’ve got it
But got it just don’t get it
‘Til there’s nothing at all”

Hopefully next year, we’ll see “Liberal Implosion, Part Deux” brought on by said track record (which by then will be even more embarrassing) with a dismantling of the pothead bill and restoration of TFSA’s contribution limits.

Those would be platforms that would get my vote.

#146 Capt. Serious on 06.08.18 at 8:56 am

The only way a single ETF can become a liquidity risk is if the underlying assets (stocks, bonds) become illiquid. Provided there is a market for the underlying securities you will always be able to liquidate an ETF because on the creation/destruction side there are arbitrage opportunities. That said, I don’t like multi-asset class ETFs because they take the rebalancing decisions out of one’s own hands. Also, people should be aware that ETFs that trade at low volume tend to have larger bid/ask spreads, so are more “expensive” to trade if you will be doing buying and selling to re-balance.

#147 Vanrentor on 06.08.18 at 9:00 am

https://thebreaker.news/news/west-van-empty-mansions/

#148 maxx on 06.08.18 at 9:13 am

#51 Linda on 06.07.18 at 8:13 pm

…..”With the ever increasing reliance on computers, I wonder how long it will be before people are considered obsolete. Certainly it appears that employment is going to be fundamentally altered & that even the well educated may find themselves replaced by a computer algorithm. So the current trends of protectionism, xenophobia, wealth divide etc. are likely to continue which is not to anyone’s benefit. We are definitely living in interesting times.”

Hear, hear. Two of the most effective devices, of course for insulating your life from the effects of AI, etc. are quality social connections and plenty of cash. Without those, times do indeed become very interesting.

Those with no cash/no debt are at ground zero and those with net debt are well below ground. The effect of those interesting times will be more keenly felt there.

#149 Tony on 06.08.18 at 9:13 am

Re: #129 Conspiratard on 06.08.18 at 8:18 am

Now the $64,000 is how long will it take for Toronto real estate to surpass Vancouver real estate in price? People will eventually leave the GTA in droves just like what’s happening today in San Francisco. 15 dollars an hour in the GTA and you’ll either starve to death or freeze to death.

#150 Tony on 06.08.18 at 9:29 am

DELETED

#151 conan on 06.08.18 at 9:41 am

Ford needs to get Progressive Conservatism back to what it used to be. Fail in that, and he won’t last more than a term.

I don’t think people were voting for a return of Harper Conservatism.

#152 Penny Henny on 06.08.18 at 9:44 am

#29 BlogDog123 on 06.07.18 at 6:53 pm
Alright Blogdogs,

** Ontariowe Election Prediction Night **

Libs – 5
Cons – 78
Dippers – 40
Other – 1

What’s your guess ??
//////////////////////

Awesome call Kreskin.

#153 Calgary Rip Off on 06.08.18 at 9:47 am

First strategy for investing is to avoid Allison. 32 and wont have kids shows a self centered woman. Lose her. Most women seem to think they are men and are a waste of time, space, and energy. Women are women. Men are men. They are different. Women have different intelligence and talents then men. Men can learn from women.

Financial advisors exist however low medium and high risk come without insider information. Unless you know businesses and many other variables it is a gamble.

Women that think they are men and try to emulate men are not men physiologically or any other way. What happens when a woman denies this? She eventually self destructs.

Take your Bible-thumping, women-are-for-babies-ony logic and go away. People are people. – Garth

#154 Oft deleted much maligned stock.picker on 06.08.18 at 9:53 am

DELETED

#155 Penny Henny on 06.08.18 at 10:04 am

#100 Victor V on 06.07.18 at 10:47 pm
BREAKING: Kathleen Wynne says she is resigning as leader of the Ontario Liberal Party
/////////////////////////

If she would have announced that she would be stepping down after the election I’m sure the Libs would have had more votes

#156 NoName on 06.08.18 at 10:13 am

Interesting read

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-trump-effect-solar-insight/billions-in-u-s-solar-projects-shelved-after-trump-panel-tariff-idUSKCN1J30CT

#157 Glengarry Girl on 06.08.18 at 10:17 am

#143 New Era

Very clever name calling, sounds just like you admire your Hero Trump. If you read what I said, I agree, Politicians and Governments are corrupt, Greed is rampant and the People are turning on each other, Social unrest is growing. I’m a resident of US with a Green Card, can’t Vote in either Country. I don’t really care for the Politicians of our time anyway. I did like Bernie Sanders message because he talked about Inequality, and I think that he was for the People, but of coarse the Oligarchy squashed his chances. I think we have huge economic problems that no Party is presenting solutions for. We are at an End of Growth stage with a huge Debt Bubble. Our current system requires more consumerism that needs more Debt. This all works until it doesn’t. I live well and I’m happy, my kids are too and I give them the encouragement daily to live their lives to the fullest. Life is quite miserable for many, regardless of their financial success. So much depression, addiction and suicides, there is so much negatively. I try to rise above and not argue over Politics and I avoid negative people.

#158 Calgary_rip_off on 06.08.18 at 10:19 am

“What the REAL problem in the World is Inequality, Greed and corruption of the Wealthy”

Acceptance of this reality and learning how to deal with it is key.

I gave my daughter a Bible and Book of Mormon for her 16th birthday. Invaluable tools for survival.

#159 ThinkingMan on 06.08.18 at 10:20 am

The biggest disgrace is that ILLEGAL immigrants have been lumped in with normal law-respecting immigrants in both American and Canadian discourse. The context and consequences are completely different. This is another argument framing trick by the left and it’s followers.

#160 Wait There on 06.08.18 at 10:25 am

OK, It looks like Trudeau is done like toast the next election.
He is cornered. If he concedes to the dairy tariff requested by Trump which the press hardly mentions, then he is done in the next election. If he does not agree to the tariff reduction or removal by Trump, chances are NAFTA will go down and he will lose the seats he has in Ontario. He is in a lose lose situation now.
Ford will let Trudeau know that Ontario is watching. The Job numbers are starting to show the effects of the freeze in Nafta.
Enough of this leftist nonsense when food on the table is at stake here.
The GOP will wait for the next government. I could never see how he and Trump got along and all along he was being played. The press also forgot that Trudeau ridiculed Trump during the election. The press has a shorter memory when it is convenient.
When you are playing with a gorilla of a country, you tread lightly and don’t swing your stick when they have a bat.

#161 Wait There on 06.08.18 at 10:31 am

#128

Was just back from Florida. Say what you will but the US economy is on fire. People don’t care as much as you think as long as the jobs are there and they have confidence in the future. We are left here with record household debt, FALLING numbers on full time work, and potentially falling trade. We love Canada but we must come to reality at some point. There is no hate for immigration down there but there is hate for ILLEGAL immigration. There is a difference a big difference. Would you want your population to be primarily law breakers. It sends the wrong message.

As for guns, it is hard to fathom but the carrying of arms is something of a cultural thing. I don’t like guns but I see how it came to be and there is not much that can be done at this point. You have to understand the history and how it came to be. You cannot legislate that out quickly like some believe. It is unrealistic.

#162 KLNR on 06.08.18 at 10:32 am

@#143 New Era on 06.08.18 at 8:52 am
to # 128 Glen Garry Goil

Truedope and the Obamanation

____________________

LOL, quit acting like a 5 year old.

#163 Shawn on 06.08.18 at 10:52 am

TSLA to $525

#164 Research It on 06.08.18 at 10:55 am

#140 Captain Serious – Little two bit villages might have been given a pass for these expensive voting machines and electronic counters. CTV was displaying the votes 10 minutes after the polls closed.

#165 Adam on 06.08.18 at 10:58 am

Unpredictable like the new majority government that doesn’t have a platform?

#166 Yuus bin Haad on 06.08.18 at 10:59 am

I was at Kathleen’s post-election confab and caught Gerald sneaking out muttering, “Don’t look at me …”

#167 Dominoes Lining Up on 06.08.18 at 10:59 am

Where are we heading?

Jobs report not looking healthy.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/7-500-jobs-lost-in-may-unemployment-rate-holds-steady-at-5-8-per-cent-1.3965149

For better or worse, Ontario PCs are in power now in large part thanks to people who are so tight financially that they really need a “12% decrease” in hydro bills, or 10 cents off a liter of gas. A few bucks a month, in other words – that is, if that actually happens.

The voters in rural ‘blue’ Ontario are also in much worse financial pain than those in big cities, hence their support.

How the new government addresses this, the debt, the promises, “without cutting a single job” is a mystery within a mystery.

This will unravel badly, and quickly, I think. The new guy appears prone to scandals and distraction that will rival his brother and the US president.

Lots of distraction looms ahead, as Ontario spirals downward.

Even more reason to dump your real estate assets there, and quickly.

#168 Victor V on 06.08.18 at 11:00 am

Canada shed 7,500 jobs in May, but saw ‘shocker’ wage growth

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/canada-shed-7-500-jobs-in-may-but-saw-shocker-wage-growth-1.1089963

“The shocker there is that wage growth number of 3.9 per cent,” said Frances Donald, senior economist with Manulife Asset Management, in an interview with BNN Bloomberg Friday. “So economists are going to spend today diving into those details to see what the minimum wage increase impact is on that.”

“But I can pretty much guarantee that the Bank of Canada’s number-one focus today is going to be that strong wage growth and whether it means that we are going to be seeing inflation moving forward,” she added. “It probably, in my mind, cements a July rate hike from the Bank of Canada right off the top, right there.”

#169 Shawn on 06.08.18 at 11:05 am

I disagree. Anyone lay investor under the age of 40 should be dollar cost averaging into VFV (or low cost equivalent). If they don’t have the know how or ability to do it themselves they should have Vanguard do it for them. It’s as simple as this.

Dollar-cost averaging over the last few years was a disastrous approach. Unless you need the money shortly, invest it when you get it. – Garth

#170 IHCTD9 on 06.08.18 at 11:13 am

#128 FATLADY on 06.08.18 at 6:44 am

Garth – Your recommendation that one should not…

Congratulations on the investments. Now learn how to read. – Garth

____

Heavy Austrian Accent:

“I let him go”

“He had to split”

“So you want to be a farmer… Here’s a couple of acres.”

“I’ll be back”

“Congratulations on the investments. Now learn how to read.”

#171 yvr_lurker on 06.08.18 at 11:14 am

#137 Glengarry_girl

————————-

Very articulate response. You and I are on the same general page for sure. Now if only Canada had a Stephen Colbert type figure who could provide (if needed) the daily “roast” for our new elected premier, like he does for the Trump circus…. This would at least be more interesting to watch. I am hoping that Ford does not follow too closely in his brother’s footsteps, but I am not optimistic. Thankfully I am removed from this….

#172 mike from mtl on 06.08.18 at 11:18 am

#132 globally balnced portfolio on 06.08.18 at 7:37 am

more red after today

barely up 1% ytd
///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

You’re doing it wrong. Just checked mine for 2018.

TFSA +5.78 non-reg +6.13 RRSP +4.42

#173 SimplyPut7 on 06.08.18 at 11:22 am

Are there any realtors left on the blog? Why have home listings in the GTA drastically increase over the last 2 weeks?

Doug didn’t say he would remove the speculator tax tomorrow. He may not even be able to remove it before the end of this year. We may get 2 more rate hikes during that time period.

#174 CJBob on 06.08.18 at 11:50 am

#158 Wait There on 06.08.18 at 10:25 am
If he concedes to the dairy tariff requested by Trump which the press hardly mentions, then he is done in the next election.
___________
I’m not sure how you’ve reached the conclusion this is an issue that will swing the election. Most Canadians don’t understand it / know it / or care about it. Lots of ways T2 can lose the next election, I don’t it’s going to be cow related.

#175 Glengarry Girl on 06.08.18 at 11:54 am

#158

The US economy is on Fire, can you elaborate? What brings you back from Florida, we’re you on Holiday? As a visitor going out to Restaurants and Shopping, things may look positive in both Countries. I lived in Naples Florida in 2016, what I saw within the working class there was not very hopeful. Last year I lived in Vegas and Pheonix, again the working class was not a rosy sight. I see Teachers striking nation wide for better wages. Income inequality, lots of shootings, Police moral sucks, distrust of authority, school administrators and politicians corruption on news daily, poor standard of living, rents being too high, crappy jobs. The UN recently raised the flag on the standard of living for the poor. Of coarse the patio restaurants in Scottsdale and 3rd Street are packed in season, but the workers can’t afford the rent. INEQUALITY, look up some documentaries on what happens when the spread gets too wide. Many Americans are so worked up and negative that they classify anyone that is not a US citizen not worthy to be there. Trust me I see it and hear it all the time because I’m white and sound like I’m from North Dakota. Naples radio shows even celebrate when the Snowbirds leave in May. Social unrest is a symptom of an ailing economy. If things were great and booming you would not have these symptoms, they aren’t hard to see, if your looking.

#176 Glengarry Girl on 06.08.18 at 11:59 am

#159

The US economy is on Fire, can you elaborate? What brings you back from Florida, we’re you on Holiday? As a visitor going out to Restaurants and Shopping, things may look positive in both Countries. I lived in Naples Florida in 2016, what I saw within the working class there was not very hopeful. Last year I lived in Vegas and Pheonix, again the working class was not a rosy sight. I see Teachers striking nation wide for better wages. Income inequality, lots of shootings, Police moral sucks, distrust of authority, school administrators and politicians corruption on news daily, poor standard of living, rents being too high, crappy jobs. The UN recently raised the flag on the standard of living for the poor. Of coarse the patio restaurants in Scottsdale and 3rd Street are packed in season, but the workers can’t afford the rent. INEQUALITY, look up some documentaries on what happens when the spread gets too wide. Many Americans are so worked up and negative that they classify anyone that is not a US citizen not worthy to be there. Trust me I see it and hear it all the time because I’m white and sound like I’m from North Dakota. Naples radio shows even celebrate when the Snowbirds leave in May. Social unrest is a symptom of an ailing economy. If things were great and booming you would not have these symptoms, they aren’t hard to see, if your looking.

#177 Renter's Revenge! on 06.08.18 at 12:00 pm

Hey IHCTD9!

Someone took a page out of your book:

https://medium.com/@nicolemariebass/why-my-rural-life-is-better-than-your-metropolitan-life-8120c84fda86

#178 Boots on the Ground in Ptown on 06.08.18 at 12:09 pm

#155 Glengarry Girl on 06.08.18 at 10:17 am
responding to #143 New Era
—————————————–
Hey you should post more. I enjoyed your other recent post as well. Seems we’re cut from similar cloth. 3 kids also and duallies in both these suffering NA countries. Against the grain /freedom to move for work/no debt mindset. I read daily, don’t post too often but when I do its usually a long philosophical dandy. Many other posters I enjoy as well- regardless if I disagree with, its always thought provoking. Thanks all dogs. Bandit looks happy as a clam in NS

#179 New Era on 06.08.18 at 12:24 pm

to # 160 KLNR

Can’t handle the truth ?

Try reading some facts about your socialist elite hypocritical “heroes” without your ideological blinders on.
How do you think we got here?

You’re lucky I didn’t refer to these two fools by the names I hear them called everyday (and not in Canada nor the USA).

#180 good read on 06.08.18 at 12:40 pm

some interesting read

http://www.richmond-news.com/news/richmond-lawyer-hong-guo-announces-bid-for-mayor-courts-chinese-voters-1.23327431

https://thebreaker.news/news/west-van-empty-mansions/

#181 PastThePeak on 06.08.18 at 1:03 pm

Reading the news today, you might think there was a sudden conversion to fiscal responsibility in Ontario. We can only dream.

– ~60% of voters selected left wing parties (NDP, Lib, Green)
– The PC’s hardly ran on much of a fiscally conservative platform. It was mostly a mishmash of cut taxes / cut costs / fire no one / “buck-a-beer”.

I voted PC as I felt that was the better option vs. the NDP who showed their extreme left ideology, as there are hopefully some in the broader party leadership who have some clue as to the fiscal problem.

Unfortunately, it is likely to go something like this:
– PC’s talk about some modest attempts to cut the deficit, but put the priority on items like cutting hydro rates further through more debt, cutting gasoline prices through more debt; etc.
– Some cutting attempted, but with the explosion of complaints, it becomes modest. Populists don’t like to be unpopular.
– End result is that, in 4 years, the debt growth is less than the liberals, but still substantial. Without a recession, probably about $350B by 2022. With a recession, closer to $400B.
– Ontario endures at least one further credit downgrade by the bond rating agencies.

After 4 years of DF, and extreme wailing by the unions/media/NDP/Libs about “austerity” (meaning not greatly increasing debt & gov’t as they wanted), a left wing party forms next gov’t (likely a minority Lib supported by NDP).

The debt binge renews in earnest after some modest slowdown. Further credit downgrades. Debt hits $500B by 2025, and interest on debt (regardless of BoC and Fed rates) due to credit downgrades is about $20B+/year, becoming the 2nd largest expenditure of the budget.

The question becomes – at this point (the $500B level, huge interest payments) – does a majority of the population start to get it?

#182 saskatoon on 06.08.18 at 1:06 pm

#159 Wait There

dude…you don’t like guns…you LOVE guns!

“legislation” IS guns.

#183 Myra Andrews on 06.08.18 at 1:09 pm

Greater Vancouver Stats from realtor Paul Boenisch

June 7 New 232 Sold 117 TI; 12,226
June 6 New 295 Sold 156 TI: 12,154
June 5 New 359 Sold 101 TI: 12,105
June 4 New 376 Sold 117 TI: 11,942

June 1 New 224 Sold 105 TI: 11,817

Ending inventory
May 11,975
April 10,459
March 9,032
Feb 8,211

#184 Tony on 06.08.18 at 1:37 pm

Re: #171 SimplyPut7 on 06.08.18 at 11:22 am

We’ll see if sales pick up dramatically between now and the end of this month in Toronto. Conversely home prices should go into free-fall mode in Vancouver as money comes back to Toronto. People will buy in anticipation of the removal of the foreigner buyers tax.

#185 Newcomer on 06.08.18 at 1:53 pm

#146 maxx on 06.08.18 at 9:13 am

Hear, hear. Two of the most effective devices, of course for insulating your life from the effects of AI, etc. are quality social connections and plenty of cash.

———-

A third is to learn how to use AI as the tool it is. I use an AI system that takes care of more than half of the difficult grunt work I used to have to do. But remember, it’s like managing an employee. The employee doesn’t know how to create value and cannot be expected to work without supervision. The big upside is that, by making it possible for everyone to have an employee who works for pennies, the capitalization required for value creation is plummeting.

#186 Good Narrative on 06.08.18 at 2:11 pm

#173 Glengarry Girl – An excellent and accurate description, and at first thought you were describing the state of affairs in the GTA. There was a beach in Naples with flocks of seagulls on alert. One held up some food, and they would swoop down to snatch it over and over again. Fun time it was feeding the birds while at the beach.

#187 James on 06.08.18 at 2:20 pm

sooo….I initially followed the Potato-head method, holding a Canadian (VCN), an ex-Canada (XAW) and and all in one bond (ZAG). I’ve learned a lot. with a 25,000 portfolio, (not including my employee rrsp prog which i move every year and the employee share buys which are locked in for 5 years at a time) Is it worth selling these and diversifying further, according to your recommendations? Any commentary on those 3 ETFs?

#188 Shawn on 06.08.18 at 2:23 pm

When it comes to investing for the long term, less is more. It’s a cruel irony that few learn early enough.

#189 mike from mtl on 06.08.18 at 3:14 pm

#184 James on 06.08.18 at 2:20 pm
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

James, other than adding perhaps some REITs and preferreds not much to gain by breaking up those all-in-ones. With such an amount doesn’t make sense to me.

ZAG has longer maturity bonds like VAB – short or longer bonds are taking a beating lately anyway.

Keep at it and you’re doing much better than the vast majority of poor preforming active mutuals.

#190 Green Party Canadian Gen Xer on 06.08.18 at 3:35 pm

The first day of Doug Ford’s Ontario:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/man-pulls-hijabs-1.4698077

#191 Doug in London on 06.08.18 at 3:36 pm

That an investor believes there’s nothing wrong with investing in 100% equities should tell you something. Traditionally your age is the percent of investments you should have in fixed income investments. In 2006 or 2007 I read an article that said that rule no longer applies and you should have a larger percentage of equities in your portfolio. It tells me that the mentality of those days is coming back and fear of equities taking a serious correction is fading. If anything, it’s a time to take some profits from equities that have had a good run and buy more fixed income investments if you haven’t already done so. If you absolutely MUST buy equities then buy ones that are on sale now like pipeline companies, electric utilities, or telecom stocks. Another word of warning, I’m starting to hear and read about labour shortages coming as our population ages, just like I heard in 2006 and 2007. Obviously anyone who believes that idea hasn’t taken into account labour saving technologies that will eliminate jobs, which will arrive just in time for the next recession. Yes, I feel myself being drawn back to 2006-07 by the time tunnel. Be careful, and get yourself that diversified portfolio you keep reading about here over and over and over and over.

#192 Vamanos Pest on 06.08.18 at 3:50 pm

@#131 Cottingham a Bargain
@#151 Calgary Rip Off

Don’t comment much anymore but have to speak out against your comments here, which are disgusting. You’ve judged her not on the merits of her actions, but on her gender. All you have revealed to any open minded reader is that you are small men, who need to feel bigger by judging and putting down others. I hope at some point you both find meaning in your lives so that you can feel a sense of fulfillment through your own accomplishments, rather than through putting down others…like Allison does.

#193 Johnnyboy on 06.08.18 at 4:05 pm

#111 Smoking Man on 06.08.18 at 12:57 am
Vegas tomorrow dogs. My knights are throwing a huge party. Sucks they lost. I’m happy for Ovy. He deserves it.
Now I don’t have to rip my appt apart looking for my 500 to 1 fifty dollar ticket, that bet on the knights winning the cup.
Ford wins. Justin the girl groper is next to go down.
If in the land of cbc weirdos could not stop Ford. Trump will kill insanity in the mid terms.
Life is getting good.
Periscope in vegas. Action can be followed here.
@SmokingMan
On Linked In
Jim Stojsin.
My friends call me Stoj.
Your serve JohneeBoy. James, Grvey Train..
I’m board.
………………………………………………………….
It is spelled bored, wow you hitting the juice early today. Gee-sh had to look you up, you are a sorry looking old man. Can’t you sign up with your son for re-hab, didn’t you say he had a great new centre open in Niagara area. I hear its a very nice place. You should sign up maybe your son will provide his services pro bono. It sounds like he has his $hit together.

#194 jess on 06.08.18 at 4:56 pm

“Ever since the internet turned Microsoft’s Tay racist and genocidal, forcing Microsoft to shut down the chatbot within 24 hours, we’ve known how susceptible artificial intelligence (AI) can be to turning evil.

To study how AI can become corrupted by biased data, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) decided to intentionally turn its AI into a psychopath named Norman—a reference to the villain in Alfred Hitchcock’s Psycho.

The MIT team pulled images and captions from an infamous subreddit dedicated to photos of death and violence, then incorporated the captions into its data of how to describe objects.

When the team subsequently gave Norman some Rorschach inkblots to analyze, Norman’s responses—compared to a “standard image captioning neural network”—were incredibly alarming. ”

================

Michael K. Spencer writes:
How will we understand when AI mutates into something other than simply tools for our digital immersion and attention capture? Tools for monetization and greed?
Let’s remember, algorithms will be making decisions directly affecting our health, job prospects, who to date, and our ability to get loans. In China, algorithms will decide if we have the right to travel, or get certain benefits in society due to our social credit score. AI will be implicated in everything we do, and yet they (the algorithms) still aren’t regulated.
https://medium.com/futuresin/2018-shows-the-dark-side-of-artificial-intelligence-fe958a74e753

=====================================
shrinking the decision making = wealth distribution gap? machine bias/ human bias

less advisors =good $$$ t
AI efficiencies = good $$$ = less humans t

profit is good = $$$$ algorithms and platforms
less is more = good = t
AI thinking t

winners and losers
the > # of fools = > $$$ for the few t/f ?

diversity in portfolio = good t
diversity in ecology = food chain = good t

< bio diversity =
food chains predator /prey balance = bad = t
mono crops = bad = pesticides =super bugs/weeds = bad = t
genocide of humans = war =migrations = bad $$$ =t

deaths = less fools?

winners and losers
the > # of fools = > $$$ for the few t/f?

#195 Fake Photo on 06.08.18 at 5:03 pm

#190 Johhnyboy – thanks for the tip as had to look at the old man putting up the groper picture of our PM. It has been altered with software technology. What a shame.

#196 Newcomer on 06.08.18 at 6:23 pm

Dollar-cost averaging over the last few years was a disastrous approach.
——

Of course, when prices only go up, dollar cost averaging is a losing proposition. By the way, over the past few years, paying my car insurance was a disastrous approach, as I didn’t have a single accident. Should I stop?

#197 Zero Hedge strategy on 06.08.18 at 6:25 pm

Investing in a diversified portfolio of ETFs is not diversification. Every time I say this my post never appears on this blog. When the market goes down, like it did in 2008-2009, all these financial assets (bonds and stocks) go down together.

True diversification is one etf, one house, one stamp collection, one block of gold, etc. A pile of different ETF or bonds is still the same asset class: financial asset.

#198 IHCTD9 on 06.09.18 at 10:11 am

#175 Renter’s Revenge! on 06.08.18 at 12:00 pm
Hey IHCTD9!

Someone took a page out of your book:

https://medium.com/@nicolemariebass/why-my-rural-life-is-better-than-your-metropolitan-life-8120c84fda86

——-

They really moved out out into the boonies, I haven’t had to fight with bears yet coming out of the grocery store :).

They appeared to be chasing a lifestyle as much as affordable living, but that’s cool. If you look at most blogs dealing with homesteading, tiny houses, cabins, etc… you’ll see it’s 99% Millennials doing this stuff.

My little village is now full of young 30 something families. We had ~90% turnover in like 10 years, and there’s only 2 houses left with old retired folks in them. I might see 1-2 for sale signs per year normally.

IMHO, living in a small village is awesome. Great sense of community, lots of activity all the time, folks are always outside doing something. We’re allowed to ride our ATV’s on the road here, and when I head out to the trails I barely get to hang onto the left handlegrip for all the waving. Our road is very old, twisty, and picturesque, we regularly have lines of bikers and car clubs cruising along taking in the view on weekends. IMHO, it’s great living at bargain prices, the bang for the buck is unbeatable.

Still, I find the idea of REALLY getting off the beaten path appealing. Maybe someday – if I can get the wife on board…

#199 Doug in London on 06.09.18 at 10:42 am

@Zero Hedge strategy, post #195:
My finding was that when markets went down in 2008-09 my bond funds (I had mutual funds back then) either held their value or only dropped slightly while equity funds and stocks dropped a lot more. That was a good time to cash in some of those bond funds and buy dirt cheap equity funds and stocks, which I did. My crystal ball is made of black ebony so don’t ask me what the markets are going to do going forward but if history can be a guide stocks and equity ETFs will go on sale again sometime. That’s when you cash in those bond funds, even if you take a small loss, and buy dirt cheap equities.