The stress

When Hanny first reached out to me, 18 months ago, he was starting a website that would plot local real estate stats. Now it’s a fixture (http://TorontoRealEstateCharts.com).

“I was going back through my old notes,” he said this week, “and saw that I first contacted you on January 5, 2017 with this chart (aka “peak crazy”):

Wow. That chart said one thing: higher prices as a growing cadre of buyers chased a dwindling supply of houses. Plus, if you recall, mortgage wars raged. It was a race to the bottom as lenders pushed home loan rates down to the 2% level, and sometimes even below. Just a few months later, as a result, we would erupt in peak house with an orgiastic spray of FOMO. And now we are making that inevitable descent down the other side.

“It’s been 1.5 years since that time,” says Hanny, “and now the same chart looks like this:

Another wow. This chart says the opposite – demand faltering while supply explodes higher. It portends falling prices and market stagnation, especially since mortgage rates have jumped dramatically and a universal stress test means everyone has to qualify at 5.34%.

“The last time supply and demand for Toronto detached looked like they do today,” the stats guy tells us, “annual price increases were 0-5%. But that was in an environment when interest rates were mostly declining and politics felt more stable. Since there does not appear to be a mass exodus from Toronto, it appears that it’s quite possible that investors are selling properties (that’s my theory anyway).”

And it’s a good one. The writing’s on the wall for condo owners who thought they could ride a wave higher for years to come. They can’t. She’s done. The first salvo came from what’s-her-name, that disgraced Ontario premier (for one more day) who ushered in universal rent controls capturing all those new units. Then came the standardized lease form and a law saying tenants must be paid to vacate at the end of their leases. Meanwhile the B20 stress test happened, kicking out 20% of buyers. Then price appreciation slowed and four in ten landlords found they had negative cash flow. Finally, there’s the blood-curdling spectre of a Dipper Premier lusting to legislate rents, spank landlords and squish the market with a spec tax.

The result, of course? Fewer rental units available and ultimately higher rents.

This note to me from Adam is typical – a solid glimpse into what’s happening widely.

My wife and I have been renting in downtown Toronto for 4 years now.  Despite not buying a unit, I’ve still been able to save a good chuck of change, take vacations, buy a car, and pay for a wedding without incurring a single penny of debt. Now, our landlord wants to sell and we may have to vacate.  We have the option of buying our own place or finding a new rental.  Problem is, rents have gone through the roof!  While we currently pay only 20% of our income on rent, we’d now have to cough up closer to 35% – for a smaller unit, that is.

For only a few hundred more, we’d be able to carry a mortgage, condo fees, and property taxes.  Assuming a 4% interest rate and even a modest (by today’s standards) 3.5% appreciation, we’d come out ahead in 5 years if we bought a unit.  We’d also have the security of knowing we wouldn’t be kicked out during that time – especially important if we decide to have our first kid.

We aren’t alone in our predicament.  Many of our friends that rent condos have received that dreaded N12 form as their landlords cashed in on their investment.  Every time this happens, they’d be forced to find new units at up to 150% more rent.  This seriously impacts our ability to save and is increasingly seeming like a poor financial choice.  With rental vacancies so low, it’s been incredibly stressful apartment hunting, and the majority of places are investor-owned condos.

Given how intense the rental market has become, do you really think renting remains the wisest approach?

Given Hanny’s chart, the drip-drip increase in mortgage costs, stupid condo costs (the average is over $601,000) and a blizzard of new supply. I’d say you’d be foolish to buy and count on 3.5% annual appreciation to justify the higher costs. As a tenant you have no money tied up in equity, no property taxes or condos fees beyond your control, complete freedom to move, no maintenance costs, no market or interest rate risk and your monthly costs will be less, allowing you to build diversified wealth.

But Adam has to deal with emotion, his spouse, hormones, a potential kid, his friends and fear of missing out. Yes, pooched.

More important, it’s the wave of listing/selling now washing over the market that will shape events. Nobody builds apartment buildings any more since cap rates are pathetic. More than half of condo sales in recent years have been to speculators and amateur landlords who shoved them onto the rental market. That was a bad idea, so people like Adam are being punted and the rental crisis grows. Vacancy rates in the GTA and Vancouver have essentially gone to zero. Renters are forced to buy – and may now be doing so into a declining market.

The inventory of properties for sale in the GTA (unlike the LM, where the Dippers are obviously practicing mind control) is bloating – smashing last April’s record – while sales are fading.

The fundamentals won’t change much with the election outcome, while sentiment might. Looks like a PC win with a strong opposition of orange people and the extinction of the Libs. The odds of Premier DeWalt nixing the foreign buyers tax is about the same as him opening up protected green space to developers. Nil. Hanny’s charts, therefore, will continue to track a market destined to eat its young.

196 comments ↓

#1 Hot Karl on 06.06.18 at 4:50 pm

FIRST!

#2 RealTime on 06.06.18 at 4:59 pm

“Nobody builds apartment buildings any more since cap rates are pathetic”

Well… there are five rental apartment towers going up within a three block radius of Davie @ Bidwell in the west end of DT Vancouver, and one near completion at Davie @ Thurlow. So ‘nobody’ and ‘any more’ are slight exaggerations.

#3 Doug for President! on 06.06.18 at 5:01 pm

Once Doug’s majority victory happen tomorrow it will be beautiful end to this communist era!!!

Rent controls — gone! finally! We are a democracy and the market needs to decide prices not stupid governments!

Standard lease form — gone! As a landlord I have the right to ask whatever the hell I want! It’s my house! If you don’t like the questions then get lost and find another place to live!

Paying tenants to vacate — gone! It’s my damn house! If I want my house back then that is my right! Sick of these communists who want a life of luxury without having to own or pay for anything! get lost!

Lets hope Dougie will somehow put an end to that stupid stress test and that stupid 15% tax for foreign buyers. We are a democratic country and should treat people equally and not give extra tax to people helping our houses hold value. Government stay out!!!

#4 MSM-Free Zone on 06.06.18 at 5:03 pm

“….The odds of Premier DeWalt nixing the foreign buyers tax is about the same as him opening up protected green space to developers. Nil……”
________________________________________

Never underestimate the power and influence of well-connected lobbyists over the perfect patsy, especially an under-educated, silver-spoon, hypocritical, blowhard patsy who is clueless about the inner workings of government and the financial world. One only needs to look south across the border for a perfect example of the chaos to follow….

Drug Fraud: For the Sheeple.

(….And I was really hoping to vote for a true (c)onservative).

#5 SunShowers on 06.06.18 at 5:07 pm

Trump is justifying tariffs on Canada because “we burned down the White House in 1812.”

I can’t believe Democrats cleared the field for the ONE person capable of losing to this complete buffoon.

#6 Let it Burn on 06.06.18 at 5:07 pm

Don’t eat meat and don’t buy a stupid condo. Don’t buy right now period. Never understood why anyone would ever want to buy a coffin with Windows in the sky.

#7 Stone on 06.06.18 at 5:09 pm

In Ontario, just because the landlord wants to sell doesn’t mean tenants need to move out. Landlord’s can only kick you out under very specific circumstances and selling the condo isn’t one of them. Just because you get an N12 doesn’t mean you need to do anything. I recommend you stay put and wait until you receive a notice from the Landlord Tenant Board to appear for a hearing. I have a feeling they won’t be siding with the landlord especially since he says he wants to sell. Hope you have that in writing – all the better. And worse case, the LTR only schedules hearings 3-6 weeks from the time the landlord files a grievance. Sit tight in the meantime and worse case scenario, look for another place with plenty of time to spare. And if the new owner plans to move in, well, they will need to issue an N12 and you will have another 60 days to do what you need to do. When might the new owner take possession? Months into the future. Oh shucks, you might be there for another year. Still feel stressed? =P

#8 Lawnboy on 06.06.18 at 5:20 pm

Good clean data, that’ll steer you straight. Great tool for scanning the market.

Great blog.

Remember , green side up!

#9 Gyga on 06.06.18 at 5:21 pm

I don’t get it. If number of listings went up why rental vacancies are so low?
I specially in DT where there are so many condos.
I would expect those amateur landlords to compete for tenants.
Anyways who wants to live in DT TO?!

#10 Condos Ruined the Market! on 06.06.18 at 5:25 pm

I think Condos are a curse on the market. Here in Ottawa there have been a ton of them in the past couple of years. A friend said the builder artificially keeps the condo fees low, so people will buy in. They have bought into a high rise with heating systems and underground garages that need an engineer to look after them. So the fees go up. 30 somethings love living downtown. Suddenly the real estate hawkers can justify paying more for a house, because of all these over-priced condos. The cost that they are willing to pay for a few hundred square feet is rediculous. Think about the complex engineering involved in these new buildings – that is what you are buying into. Not only that but you don’t get to move out because one of your neighbours has an electric guitar or installs the noisy flooring above you, or flushes his toilet and turns on his window air conditioner in the middle of the night waking you up! Think carefully!!

#11 Ian on 06.06.18 at 5:29 pm

Stay patient on the GTA rental cost thing.

I fully appreciate the current situation really sucks. I’m in a rental only building in Toronto Centre and it’s a complete rip off.

However, rental prices will continue to fall as house prices fall. Those still long empty properties will be desperate to get any amount of cash flow they can get their hands on.

Wait till condos join the waterslide too.

#12 Cocaine Communist on 06.06.18 at 5:30 pm

#3 Doug for President!

The derp is strong in this one.

#13 NotLegalAdvice on 06.06.18 at 5:33 pm

“Renters are forced to buy – and may now be doing so into a declining market.” – Garth

I was about to comment that yesterday you said if the PC won, markets would be going back up and your advice from a few weeks ago (to buy if you could afford to) would have been proved correct.

However, I then realized you said “may now be doing so..”, so I’ve decided not to comment on it.

Moving forward, PC wins tomorrow, and our real estate market is still ……screwed!

#14 dakkie on 06.06.18 at 5:33 pm

The Truth About Ontario’s Debt Crisis. Prepare Yourself.

http://www.investmentwatchblog.com/the-truth-about-ontarios-debt-crisis-prepare-yourself/

#15 Excellent Presentation on 06.06.18 at 5:33 pm

Another factor to consider is the university and college graduates with special skills outside of the GTA and Vancouver for example. These young people with skills and knowledge will not be moving to either center. The costs are simply too high for them, and a great loss going forward. These young people with future needs for society growth that have enthusiasm, knowledge, skills, and ideas will settle in other parts of Canada that are affordable and will prosper greatly.

#16 MF on 06.06.18 at 5:36 pm

“People like Adam are being punted and the rental crisis grows. Vacancy rates in the GTA and Vancouver have essentially gone to zero. Renters are forced to buy – and may now be doing so into a declining market.”

-That sounds like increased demand to me. I don’t see how that would make property values decrease. Further increases in Toronto condos moving forward (I was right when I predicted that last year).

MF

#17 mj on 06.06.18 at 5:43 pm

I think the best way to slow down the real estate market was what they started before. 40 year amortization down to 25 years. I would of liked to see that continue to 20 years, or even 15 years. More money would go back in the home owners pocket, while slowing down the market. rather than stress test.

#18 Victor V on 06.06.18 at 5:43 pm

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/if-ontario-liberals-lose-recognized-party-status-after-thursday-s-election-what-comes-next-1.4693261

As of June 5, according to the CBC News poll tracker, the Progressive Conservatives were at 37.6 per cent support, the NDP at 36.1 and the Liberals at 19.9 per cent.

As a result, seat projections were at 74 for the PCs, 48 for the NDP and two for the Liberals. That would be a stunning, though not unheard of, fall for a governing party that has been in power for 15 years.

But what does losing party status mean in Ontario? And how does a party stay relevant when it’s been reduced to what looks like bystander status?

#19 Bobby on 06.06.18 at 5:43 pm

For #7 Stone,

You’ve articulated quite succinctly why there is a shortage of rentals. And the shortage will only get worse.
Why would anyone want to be a landlord?

#20 Apartment on 06.06.18 at 5:49 pm

Wish the economics for apartments made more sense then condos. Maybe the NDP will over regulate condos to the point where it makes more sense economically to build purpose-built apartments. One can hope.

Also, buying a condo makes no sense, don’t do it. It’s not cool to be indebted the rest of your life. I think the challenge for this guy is that he’s not putting what he’s saved into equities/bonds. If he was paying 1500 and now he’ll be paying 2500, 12k a year over the last 5 years in a conservative dividend portfolio would be paying at least part of his rent increase now.

The answer is back to the old wealthy barber book; Pay yourself first!

#21 confused on 06.06.18 at 5:49 pm

When do the ‘Not My Premier’ riots start in downtown Toronto?

#22 Lost...but not leased on 06.06.18 at 5:52 pm

Ontario ElECTION…

On the surface…It seems to be a battle of Orville Redenbacher VS Auric Goldfinger…

What will likely happen is a gov’t formed by coalition between NDP and NOTA

#23 Willy Wonka on 06.06.18 at 5:52 pm

Amateur condo investors forget that major rental projects are well underway in Toronto with thousands of units to be delivered in the next 24 months. Good luck competing with the professional landlords. Here are two projects in midtown that will be completed by Christmas:

https://riocan.com/development-portfolio/development/ecentral/
https://www.rhapsodyliving.ca/find-an-apartment/montgomery-square

#24 Mattl on 06.06.18 at 5:53 pm

Yawn. Prices everywhere are still crazy, wake me up when a family making 300k can reasonably afford a home in downtown TO or Vancouver. All that matters is selling prices and as we sit today, homes are still crazy expensive. That may change, but so far it hasn’t

#25 Bibi on 06.06.18 at 6:04 pm

Some things in this article don’t make sense. Low vacancy rate can NOT be the result of people selling condos. There is either imbalance between the number of people and the housing stock or some of the housing stock is sitting empty. How many units are sold is irrelevant.

#26 Bibi on 06.06.18 at 6:11 pm

And if the rents are rising so much, why are the landlords selling those precious condos? This blog has been talking for a decade about an imminent oversupply of condos in GTA. And now there is a shortage of housing in GTA. It looks like the RE shysters were actually right!

There is decidedly no shortage of condos. – Garth

#27 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 06.06.18 at 6:21 pm

Doug for President #3

You are a communist and most likely a SHYSTER. Doud can do nothing about stress test. Also no mention of the communist Mortgage Housing Corporation (CMHC) . I get your ok with that? You SHYSTERS make me sick. It’s so easy to spot you useless eaters. Open up MLS you communist SHYSTERS.

#28 S on 06.06.18 at 6:34 pm

I am facing the same predicament as Adam. I don’t have any debt, have developed a good amount of savings ($200k) and my wife and I both earn good money ($200k + a year). We rent a 2 bedroom apartment downtown for $2,500 a month and if we are given an N12, a similar unit will rent for over $3,500! Earlier, Garth suggested that it was the right time to buy a house but I really don’t have any desire to own a house in the suburbs. I don’t care to cut grass, shovel snow or deal with a long commute to work. I want to continue living in the city in a Condo with my wife and baby. I have convinced my wife that owning a condo is a bad investment but having uncertainty over where we live and thinking about moving is a huge PITA! The stress involved with finding a condo that works, in an area that works, that is close to work and daycare – it is really overwhelming and tiring. Every time we have moved, it has taken us a long time to find the right unit. Then there are costs involved with moving, effort involved with packing, time off work, etc. I think about the day the landlord will come and say that they need to sell the unit or need it for their own use and I don’t know what I would do next. Adam – I feel your pain and you are living my worst nightmare! I hope you are able to find a solution that works for you and your family. Garth – what advice could you give someone like me? Someone that wants to live in the city but also wouldn’t mind having some security. I think its crazy to think that I could buy a condo and wake up tomorrow with no savings and owe the bank a ton of money. At the same time, the stress of housing uncertainty is really becoming difficult to manage.

#29 Example on 06.06.18 at 6:48 pm

The great brain migration started a few years ago as had no idea what was taking place in the tech area, as must have been sleeping. I discovered this a year ago. In Toronto alone 3,000 moved to affordability plus many other university grads moved; perhaps another 1000. in a short period of time about 300 companies started up that are booming with business. It was all about the cost of living because homes and rents were modest without the crime. They saw for themselves a better future, and those with homes blew them off to buy for much less enjoying a carefree lifestyle. Get ready for the pending great migration, as it has begun and don’t be left behind.

#30 NumNum on 06.06.18 at 6:49 pm

I was recently looking at property prices in Karachi, Pakistan. This is a third world country with severe law and order issues lacking basic necessities like reliable electricity and water supply and a GDP per capita of ~1500 USD. Karachi salaries are a bit higher but nothing to explain this:
Real estate costs only slightly lower than what it does in Canada. Take a look: https://www.zameen.com/

That makes me genuinely scared for the future of the affordability of real estate. It seems the world is reverting back to feudalism and those without property will completely miss out.

#31 RRSP RENTALS on 06.06.18 at 6:49 pm

Back into the mid 1990’s there was a flurry of changes made to the Fed’s RRSP program to spur developers to build and small investors to buy up and hold condo units and collect rents as part of their retirement income. At some point the folks who have held all these condos will have to sell them. Just wait until all the first waves of wrinkly boomers in the big cities start dumping them by the tens of thousands, year after year.

#32 Newcomer on 06.06.18 at 6:51 pm

Let’s not forget that, in addition to all that Garth said, rents will plummet as unsold supply builds up and owners despair of selling. In Calgary, just about every landlord had to lower the rent to keep existing tenants from crossing the hall for a 30% discount.

#33 brian1 on 06.06.18 at 6:52 pm

Put signs in the street stating that condo prices will fall
70% over next 5 years and problem solved.

#34 HowDeepThePain? on 06.06.18 at 6:53 pm

I am facing the same predicament as Adam. I don’t have any debt, have developed a good amount of savings ($200k) and my wife and I both earn good money ($200k + a year). We rent a 2 bedroom apartment downtown for $2,500 a month and if we are given an N12, a similar unit will rent for over $3,500! Earlier, Garth suggested that it was the right time to buy a house but I really don’t have any desire to own a house in the suburbs. I don’t care to cut grass, shovel snow or deal with a long commute to work. I want to continue living in the city in a Condo with my wife and baby. I have convinced my wife that owning a condo is a bad investment but having uncertainty over where we live and thinking about moving is a huge PITA! The stress involved with finding a condo that works, in an area that works, that is close to work and daycare – it is really overwhelming and tiring. Every time we have moved, it has taken us a long time to find the right unit. Then there are costs involved with moving, effort involved with packing, time off work, etc. I think about the day the landlord will come and say that they need to sell the unit or need it for their own use and I don’t know what I would do next. Adam – I feel your pain and you are living my worst nightmare! I hope you are able to find a solution that works for you and your family. Garth – what advice could you give someone like me? Someone that wants to live in the city but also wouldn’t mind having some security. I think its crazy to think that I could buy a condo and wake up tomorrow with no savings and owe the bank a ton of money. At the same time, the stress of housing uncertainty is really becoming difficult to manage.

+++++++++++

What’s the issue? The Condo owner has to pay your last months rent which is roughly comparable cost to hiring movers to pack up all your stuff and move it.

All you have to do is dig deep and find a place at a reasonable cost. Landlords are subsidizing costs significantly.

This is your chance to try a new area.

Canada Post will forward your mail for a small fee, update your drivers license if you have one.

Easy…

#35 TalkingPie on 06.06.18 at 6:54 pm

News from the Montreal area:

Girlfriend and I accepted an offer on a purchase today. 2,700 sq ft house on a 25,000 sq ft lot, built in 1990, original but in nice shape. Above-ground pool, double garage, good schools nearby and very peaceful – the neighbours behind are a horse stable. Within an hour door-to-door to downtown Montreal, although we don’t need to go there with any kind of regularity. $348k.

If that’s the result of what the rest of the country considers draconian rental rules (they’re considerably more tenant-friendly than Toronto’s new rules), it might be something for Ontario and BC to take a look at.

#36 Craig on 06.06.18 at 7:08 pm

Re #3

Going to bed with a roof over your head at night (whether your rent or own) is a basic necessity in life not a luxury. If everyone thought like you then we would be overrun with homeless people. Think before you speak next time.

#37 Leo Trollstoy on 06.06.18 at 7:12 pm

“I was going back through my old notes,” he said this week, “and saw that I first contacted you on January 5, 2017 with this chart (aka “peak crazy“)

Damn! Hanny nailed the peak of real estate prices in 2017

Nice job!

#38 Craig on 06.06.18 at 7:14 pm

Re #3

Going to bed with a roof over your head at night ( whether your rent or own ) is a basic necessity in life not a luxury. If everyone thought like you then we would be overrun with homeless people. Think before you speak next time.

#39 Ian on 06.06.18 at 7:16 pm

My prediction for tomorrow, based on Advanced Symbolics CEO Erin Kelly’s great interviews with Paikin on TVO:

Blues 71, Oranges 50, Reds 2, Greens 1.

Reds win my riding in Toronto Centre and Toronto St Paul’s, and MAY win Wynne’s riding but heavens I hope not.

Blues on the rise!!!

#40 MF on 06.06.18 at 7:18 pm

#29 Example on 06.06.18 at 6:48 pm

And just where are these tech superstars who demand 6 figure wages (E stats reported here) going to go?

Palo Alto?

What is the cost of living like there? Must be super cheap alright.

Toronto is absolutely booming. There is tons of in migration to replace those 3-4 thousand people. That’s why demand for RE is off the charts and a 600 square foot condo costs $600,000.00.

MF

#41 Newcomer on 06.06.18 at 7:23 pm

There are three separate numbers to consider:
1) stock (how many units are out there);
2) sales supply (how many units are for sale); and
3) rental supply (how many units are for rent).

These numbers can all vary independently of each other. There is plenty of stock everywhere in Canada, far exceeding the housing needs of the population. There is little sales supply because people are holding the stock off the market in hopes of appreciation. Basically, people are treating housing just like they do gold: a product with very low practical value that is only held as a speculative asset and store of wealth. The same is true for the lack of rental supply.

Of these three numbers, only stock is physically determined. Sales supply and rental supply are the product of mass psychology.

#42 Disgruntled on 06.06.18 at 7:30 pm

#7 “Just because you get an N12 doesn’t mean you need to do anything. I recommend you stay put and wait until you receive a notice from the Landlord Tenant Board to appear for a hearing. I have a feeling they won’t be siding with the landlord especially since he says he wants to sell.”

I must say when renters start to be very hard to evict and basically act like they own the place, that contributes to the vacant properties problem. A close friend of mine had an enormous amount of trouble getting a young couple with a brat out of her house who were two to three weeks late with the rent every single month. and when they finally did leave did not pay the last 2 months. Besides that they basically trashed the place and she had to spend $50,000 to renovate, more than wiping out any rental income she had received from this garbage family. Sorry to say but if I owned an extra house I would think twice about renting it out, given what she has experienced and given sentiment such as that you have described, whereby you can basically ignore eviction notices. Bad tenants are like a rodent infestation. good luck getting them out and they laugh about it and flaunt the tenancy laws. This contributes to empty houses.

#43 PGer on 06.06.18 at 7:33 pm

Wow – am I ever glad I live in bumf#$k nowhere in BC. Where my house is paid for and I’ve had no mortage for the last 2 decades.

But I guess I’m missing out on the big city experience – too bad, at least we have some money and can visit a big city (like super unfriendly YVR) when the wife and I feel like it (which isn’t often).

#44 Smoking Man on 06.06.18 at 7:48 pm

Anyone feel like having fun.

CRA scammers at it again. They said I owed them 80k
They got so excited when I said sure I’ll pay…

Asked when is Canadas birthday. Boom busted.
Time is money keep them on the line for as long as posable before you tell them where to go.

Here is the number, have fun.

604 449 4544.

#45 Selective memory on 06.06.18 at 7:50 pm

77 AK on 06.03.18 at 7:28 pm

#46 Doug in London on 06.03.18 at 5:39 pm
“Yes, if the NDP get in, then we’ll get bigger government, increased social spending, cheap childcare, free drugs, bigger deficits and more taxes, no doubt about that. Then again, if the Con artists get in we’ll get tax breaks we can’t afford. Someone has to pay for these tax breaks, so what will that do to our already big deficit and debt? Somehow, the Dippers don’t seem all that bad.”
—————————————————————–

May be you were not old enough in 1990 through 1995.
—————-
Maybe you have selective memory and forgot WALKERTON from the Mike Harris cuts of 1999-2002. One era jobs were spared, the other lives were lost.

#46 pay your taxes on 06.06.18 at 7:58 pm

I drive past the sign in the photo every day. They’ve been doing signs like that for as long as I can remember. The business is a print shop, rare as hen’s teeth these days.

Renters here in Vancouver are pretty much screwed too. The ones I know who have been in the same place for a few years are defecating bricks, waiting for that eviction notice to arrive so the landlord can throw them out and double the rent.

The children of renters are doomed to be members of the underclass. Maybe one day they will be branded or tattooed for identification purposes. Na, the haunted look in their eyes will make them easy enough to recognize.

#47 Editrix on 06.06.18 at 8:03 pm

Adam and his wife should see if they can find jobs in Montreal. Much better quality of life and lower prices for accommodation. My industry has many jobs there and a lot of my co-workers are moving or have moved there.

Recently my company tried to recruit in Ottawa. That city has a lot of jobs in my industry at the moment, but even so, no one wants to move to Toronto because of the cost of living.

#48 Alice in Wonderland.. on 06.06.18 at 8:04 pm

Brian 1…Love the idea! People all over the country should post similar signs saying the same about houses as well as condos!!~and over priced farm land, etc..

If across the country we get a 20%-40% drop in all sorts of RE the next couple years, Garth will insist you write the Forward to his next book!! He may even give you a free autographed copy …maybe not free..perhaps discounted.. :)

#49 Reality is stark on 06.06.18 at 8:09 pm

Nothing good in this world was ever accomplished without taxes.
More taxes are good for you.
When you tax the incentive out of people we can all feel better about ourselves.
They should have a government department that has a mandate to come up with creative ways of taxing the populace.
I never met a tax I didn’t like.

#50 Ray on 06.06.18 at 8:13 pm

Pres.Trump uses the argument that Canada burned down the White House in the War of 1812 to justify his opinion that Canada is a national security threat. I say “Yeh, Canada won the War of 1812, and that’s why the US got Michigan”
http://nationalpost.com/news/canada/didnt-you-guys-burn-down-the-white-house-trump-uses-war-of-1812-to-justify-canada-as-security-threat

#51 Dolce Vita on 06.06.18 at 8:16 pm

As predicted right about this time in 2018, RE “investors” bailing. Last out the turnstiles loses. Prices set to drop like a rock 4th Qtr 2018…today’s RE Inventory stats = Marketing’s “Early Adopters”.

Patience renters.

When the “investors” can’t sell, they will be stuck with their “investment” properties and in need of cash flow, at any price.

Then will come renters revenge (a.k.a., ask Calgary).

As for Ford removing the foreign buyers tax…who cares. That will not help a failing RE market and then there is B20 and rising interest rates, ALL out of his control.

Add to that NAFTA failing (again out of Ford’s control), and it will, bringing with it a “doomer” psychology.

Trump and the US are intransigent on the 5-yr Sunset Clause which Canada opposes whilst our Pretty Boi PM (too busy batting his eyelashes for NBC along with a pouty hurt puppy dog face) yet lobbying behind Trump’s back with anyone that will listen to him and his sidekick Chrystia.

Yup, that will make Trump very, very happy indeed (and dutying Paul Ryan pickles, McConnell bourbon and Florida OJ just ’cause they helped elect Trump).

Yup, NAFTA will be ratified in flying colors.

All in all, relax renters, hang in there ’til 4th Qtr 2018…the best is yet to come (worse if the NDP get elected…you poor things).

#52 Bdog on 06.06.18 at 8:19 pm

Seen this all before. Posting charts that make us think times are changing, sorry they wont. Go Capitals!

#53 Drug Ford on 06.06.18 at 8:20 pm

ALL RIGHT!!! For the people, and for Garth too!!

Thanks for your support, my friend. For a while there, I thought you were against me, you know, like a racist.
You can be a racist against people that eat little red apples.

#Hashish

#54 For those about to flop... on 06.06.18 at 8:21 pm

Pink Pollen falling in West Vancouver.

The guys just put this house back on the market all shiny a new after taking 500 k off the asking price.

If you look at the asking price history ,that is now 1 million less than original ask.

They are on the hook for 4.35 and the new ask is 3.98

The assessment is strong at 4.53 ,but the detached market is weak…

M43BC

3050 Spencer Drive, West Vancouver, Paid 4.35 February 2017 ass4.53
2017-07-28 : $4,988,000
2017-10-30 : $4,880,000
2017-12-03 : $4,488,000
Now asking 3.98

https://www.zolo.ca/west-vancouver-real-estate/3050-spencer-drive

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAyOTVNQg

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Feel free to make a donation.

Flop For Fox Fund…

http://www.terryfox.org/get-involved/ways-to-give/

#55 Stone on 06.06.18 at 8:33 pm

#42 Disgruntled on 06.06.18 at 7:30 pm
#7 “Just because you get an N12 doesn’t mean you need to do anything. I recommend you stay put and wait until you receive a notice from the Landlord Tenant Board to appear for a hearing. I have a feeling they won’t be siding with the landlord especially since he says he wants to sell.”

I must say when renters start to be very hard to evict and basically act like they own the place, that contributes to the vacant properties problem. A close friend of mine had an enormous amount of trouble getting a young couple with a brat out of her house who were two to three weeks late with the rent every single month. and when they finally did leave did not pay the last 2 months. Besides that they basically trashed the place and she had to spend $50,000 to renovate, more than wiping out any rental income she had received from this garbage family. Sorry to say but if I owned an extra house I would think twice about renting it out, given what she has experienced and given sentiment such as that you have described, whereby you can basically ignore eviction notices. Bad tenants are like a rodent infestation. good luck getting them out and they laugh about it and flaunt the tenancy laws. This contributes to empty houses.

——-

I’ve always paid the rent on time (post dated cheques) and always kept the place nice and tidy. I will say that many landlord’s are downright abusive and so they had this coming for a while. The new rental act equalizes the playing field though and for that, I am appreciative.

Also, for the one who commented about not wanting to rent in the burbs because they don’t want to cut grass or clean snow, no worries. Maintenance, which includes grass cutting and snow cleaning, is a landlord responsibility. Tenants responsibilities are to keep the place clean, nothing else. Same responsibilities if you rent in an apartment building or rent a single detached house. The rental act indicates that even if an illegal clause in a lease agreement is included making you responsible, the clause is null and void if it contravenes the rental act.

I like fairness. It’s not about flaunting the tenancy laws but respecting them. Landlords are not above the law. Neither are tenants.

#56 Ace Goodheart on 06.06.18 at 8:42 pm

RE: #5 SunShowers on 06.06.18 at 5:07 pm

“Trump is justifying tariffs on Canada because “we burned down the White House in 1812.”

I can’t believe Democrats cleared the field for the ONE person capable of losing to this complete buffoon.”

Looks like Trumpster’s about to get crushed by the Koch brothers and their massive republican fund raising and political influence machine…..

#57 Allen on 06.06.18 at 8:49 pm

#50 Ray on 06.06.18 at 8:13 pm
Pres.Trump uses the argument that Canada burned down the White House in the War of 1812

Oh geez, here comes another tearful apology from Trudope.

#58 Danny on 06.06.18 at 8:52 pm

Doug……..will be our first illiterate Premier.

Let’s wait a year and see what this blog will say…..then….
Garth usually you stick to facts…..but sprinkled with some displeasure…..against liberals and NDP….maybe the Green Party too…..in the future.

Overall you are balanced…..like all of us you can’t help your past political slant. At least you realize, I believe you said before “Doug is an idiot ”

As to the comment section hopefully it will stick to facts……most of the time and not chant the conservative tribal cry to war…… that comes out of those loyalists for the new leader……who starts with ” my friends”…..Where did Doug learn that?……..probably high school…See who said he has a bad memory.

I predict like ” Dumbo Don Donald “…..Doug will fight with the press…..because he can’t control them…..except of course for the Sun Newspaper….who will pull his puppet parrot strings.

I guess sales from LCBO and beer stores will go up tomorrow.

#59 Smoking Man on 06.06.18 at 9:03 pm

I can’t understand why teacher and their newly minted socialists don’t get it. Money has wings, you treat it badly and it will fly off to greener pastures.

If the dippers win, business say screw it. Good bye.
But I’m sensing the teacher and their pets know the destruction a dipper govt will cause. They are happy about it.

It’s like punching yourself in the face and screaming at the mirror this is cool. Lets do it again..

Good luck Ontario. I’m watching from my safe space away from the deep hand of communism.

Good Luck Ford. You will need it. Your up against entire generation of brain washed masicists.

Dr Smoking Man
Phd Hetdonomics.

#60 Tony on 06.06.18 at 9:05 pm

Re: #39 Ian on 06.06.18 at 7:16 pm

The ones that would have voted liberal will figure it out and not waste a vote. The ones that would have voted liberal are more apt to vote NDP rather than conservative. The race will be much tighter than you think.

#61 Lead Paint on 06.06.18 at 9:09 pm

#3 Doug for President! on 06.06.18 at 5:01 pm

So would you feel that way if the bank you owe money to repossess your home without notice ? When you accept someone as a renter it becomes their home, even if it’s your property. If you want absolute control over your property don’t rent it out or owe money on it.

Even then, hope you can afford the property taxes on it and abide by local governing laws or else you’ll find yourself dispossessed.

Basically you have certain rights over that property over a certain period of time, but you never really own or control it in in a true sense.

Finally learn some compassion. You’ll create a lot of misery along the way without it.

#62 ANON on 06.06.18 at 9:16 pm

Don’t eat meat?! I thought this is a paleo blog! What am I supposed to do with the squirrel recipe collection, then?

#63 Reply to MF on 06.06.18 at 9:20 pm

#40 MF: – Small city center in Ontario, and the IT geeks are developing software applications with major websites on the internet making big money. I imagine this is taking place elsewhere in Canada. One doesn’t need a large staff to run a huge system on the net as this is known. In many cases 6 figures is just pocket change.

#64 brian1 on 06.06.18 at 9:26 pm

If we allow markets to decide rents we will have landlord collusion resulting in 2000 % increases.

#65 BlogDog123 on 06.06.18 at 9:33 pm

Wynne and the libs of 14 years deserve to lose for many, many reasons including:
1) removing power of AG to forbid partisan gov’t paid advertising.
2) clusterf**k’ing the energy file
3) paying teachers to bargain (pizza cost how much?)
4) allowing the LRT to subway debacle to happen (fully costed plan vs. one stop empty trains) purely to win a few seats
5) screwing up the “new math” curriculum
6) hydro FIT program (the more the wind blows, the more we all get screwed with global adjustments, paying people to take our excess power)
7) Pan Am bloated costs and bonuses fiasco
8) $14,000 of your money going to wealthy Tesla owners
9) Overpaid Ontario Pension Plan employees, plus their generous severance pkgs for nothing done
10) Ontario tax collectors given huge severances then swapping business cards to work for feds
11) Bloated government agencies like OPA (since merged with IESO, I wonder if anyone got laid off…)

Wynnebag will still likely get a nice $400,000 severance pkg. I don’t think they get pensions in Ontario, thank god…

Don’t let the door kick you on the way out…

Somebody make sure to do triple tape backups of their hard-drives before they leave? Mr. Speaker or Lt. Gov. Ont. can you make sure that happens?

#66 rental property math on 06.06.18 at 9:41 pm

This is why you go with retired boomer tenants. The ones that sold their house and want to rent for a few years to see where the market goes. They might even move to Nova Scotia. Garth’s advice gets around. No issues about shoveling a single car driveway. That’s only a millennial snowflake thing. No wonder you’re always getting the boot.

#67 PBrasseur on 06.06.18 at 9:41 pm

Libéral debacle coming up in Ontario, expect same next fall in Quebec, next is T2.

Maybe there’s hope for this country after all!

#68 DON on 06.06.18 at 9:45 pm

There are rental buildings starting to appear throughout the Vancouver island. The retirement mecca of Canada…Listings popping up all over…natural cycle of life. Did we reach peak retirement?

#69 Aussie Housing Dropping Big on 06.06.18 at 9:47 pm

Check out what is happening in Australia. Canada will follow.

Eby is cleaning up RE laundering very well. And the party is just getting started.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/fall-in-house-prices-is-quite-a-bit-larger-than-expected-says-anz-20180606-p4zjr9.html

#70 ImGonnaBeSick on 06.06.18 at 9:55 pm

#40 MF – most of my employees make 6 figures, and I live in an area of Ontario where the cost of living is about 20% lower than that of Toronto. They also have top notch benefits and a generous RSP matching. I would take 10 of those techs tomorrow if they wanted to relocate away from that terrible city.

#71 DON on 06.06.18 at 9:58 pm

So higher rates….right now but as more listings come on the market coupled with low sales then the competition for renters starts as investors fail to sell?

On another note China and Canada to share data – count

#72 ImGonnaBeSick on 06.06.18 at 10:01 pm

#49 Reality is stark – “I never met a tax I didn’t like”
——
Or, “I never met a tax I didn’t hike” signed the Liberal Government.

#73 What can I say about that? on 06.06.18 at 10:03 pm

What nonsense. Rental is one thing, but if you ever want a house in TO to live in, just buy it ASAP. Waiting is nonsense. Predictions of price declines are nonsense. Even if there is a temporary interim dip, in 10 short years from now, all TO housing will be worth much more than it is today. That prediction assumes that rates will stay low (which they will), massive immigration continues (which it will), the Ponzi debt economy doesn’t collapse (which it probably won’t).

#74 DON on 06.06.18 at 10:10 pm

Ontario Election Deciding Factor: Unaffordable housing and people are pissed and everyone has seen the Trumpster in action.

#75 DON on 06.06.18 at 10:16 pm

#19 Bobby on 06.06.18 at 5:43 pm

For #7 Stone,

You’ve articulated quite succinctly why there is a shortage of rentals. And the shortage will only get worse.
Why would anyone want to be a landlord?

********
Let’s take this one step further (on this roller coaster ride) falling sales and increasing supply will force some to become or remain being a landlord and perhaps competing for tenants. This is not a static event. It’s the downside.

Increasing rates, stress test – sharing financial info with China who want their money back from embezzlers. The flip side is a bitch for some.

#76 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.06.18 at 10:29 pm

@#46 pay your taxes
“The children of renters are doomed to be members of the underclass. Maybe one day they will be branded or tattooed for identification purposes. Na, the haunted look in their eyes will make them easy enough to recognize.”
++++++

my my my.
You Realtors are getting desperate arent you.

Just make sure YOU pay your taxes

#77 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.06.18 at 10:34 pm

@#43 PG’er
“and can visit a big city (like super unfriendly YVR) when the wife and I feel like it (which isn’t often).
+++++
Ahhh yessss

Prince George aka Pig’s Gorge
While I agree with what you say about unfriendly YVR ( the security at most airports is a pain)

Well, when I want to visit a trailer park/strip mall experience….no need to drive all the way to Pig’s Gorge………I go to Surrey

#78 Not Low Enough on 06.06.18 at 10:36 pm

#69 ImGonnaBeSick – Not nearly enough to make them jump for 20%. Try 50% or better.

#79 NotLegalAdvice on 06.06.18 at 10:37 pm

#28 S on 06.06.18 at 6:34 pm

Come on man, sometimes you have to make sacrifices for your kids. Commuting into toronto from the burbs ain’t so bad. Stay close to a Go Station. Your child will have a real backyard to kick around a soccer ball. Summer days grilling on your BBQ. For 2500 bux in the burbs you can get a detached home. The beauty of having a man cave.

You still have options. Don’t feel defeated.

#80 Wicked as it seems on 06.06.18 at 10:38 pm

Bought a six pack and bottle of tequila in BC…tax was $5.60 more than the price of goods in Oaxaca, Mexico

#81 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.06.18 at 10:41 pm

@#50 Ray
“Pres.Trump uses the argument that Canada burned down the White House in the War of 1812 to justify his opinion that Canada is a national security threat.”
+++++
Mr Trump should review history.
Canada wasnt a country until 1867.
Thus by 1812 the US was 45 years old and British regulars with volunteer rabble from the colonies invaded Washington, sacked the White House, looted the building ( with the exception of historically important items hidden by the serving President Madison’s wife after the President fled).
The British soldiers then defecated on the dining room table before they left……….
Trump really holds a grudge……

#82 MF on 06.06.18 at 10:44 pm

69 ImGonnaBeSick on 06.06.18 at

-Terrible city? Okay pal.

Nobody cares about “your employees” and how much they make or where they live. Certainly not me or the 6 million other souls who live in Toronto.

My cousin had a good job as a lawyer in New York City, but he left to come back to Toronto and practice. Does that mean NYC is terrible?

No. It doesnt.

MF

#83 Not a renter but, on 06.06.18 at 10:51 pm

Don’t understand why landlords are giving out N12 if they are selling the unit. N12 is for evictions for owner using the property.
The rules state:
It is now an offence under the RTA for a landlord to knowingly end a tenancy by giving notice in bad faith. A conviction for this offence can result in a fine of up to $25,000 for an individual.
It is presumed, unless the contrary is proven on a balance of probabilities, that a landlord gave a notice of termination in bad faith, if within one year:….
advertises the rental unit, or the building that contains the rental unit, for sale.

#84 Tom from Mississauga on 06.06.18 at 11:04 pm

Got my rental May 1st. Expensive, hard to get, arrived for viewing cheque in hand. Then went to employer and haggled an 11% raise. Very common in Mississauga, employers expect to pay way more. Finding replacement employees is impossible.

#85 Newcomer on 06.06.18 at 11:07 pm

#28 S on 06.06.18 at 6:34 pm
I am facing the same predicament as Adam.
…Every time we have moved, it has taken us a long time to find the right unit. Then there are costs involved with moving, effort involved with packing, time off work, etc.
———

How about a contingency plan/fund? Say you have to pay 50% more rent for two years (it’s still a reasonable percentage of your income), that would make it easier to find the next place and would come to 30K over two years. Pay a mover to do all the packing, that would be 5K. So budget to put aside 35 K. Make a list of realtors who you can send an email blast to, when the need arises, letting them know that you are in the market for a rental property. Work out what your requirements will be (location, sqft, etc.). Then sit back with the knowledge that you are as prepared as a boy scout.

You are a wealthy guy in nice safe city, in a nice safe country. Relax.

#86 Doughberman on 06.06.18 at 11:10 pm

#81 MF on 06.06.18 at 10:44 pm
69 ImGonnaBeSick on 06.06.18 at

-Terrible city? Okay pal.

Nobody cares about “your employees” and how much they make or where they live. Certainly not me or the 6 million other souls who live in Toronto.

My cousin had a good job as a lawyer in New York City, but he left to come back to Toronto and practice. Does that mean NYC is terrible?

No. It doesnt.

MF

—————

Toronto is a terrible city.

The sooner you admit it to yourself the sooner you can get over it and move on a better life.

Take it from someone who used to think like you.

On another note, you must think very highly of yourself to suggest you speak for 6 million people. Just saying. There’s a pattern to your thinking.

#87 Mao Say Tongue on 06.06.18 at 11:13 pm

People sharpen your hockey sticks and get the flotilla of Canadian navy (ie canoes and row boats) ready to invade this petulant neighbour.

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/trump-apos-tariffs-key-topic-161336905.html

“Trump mentioned the burning of the White House during the War of 1812 during the confrontational May 25 call, which was first reported by CNN and confirmed by CBC News.

Trudeau reportedly asked Trump how tariffs could be imposed on Canada on “national security” grounds. Trump reportedly responded: “Didn’t you guys burn down the White House?”

General Garth, your humble servants await instruction

#88 IHCTD9 on 06.06.18 at 11:15 pm

#28 S on 06.06.18 at 6:34 pm
Someone that wants to live in the city but also wouldn’t mind having some security. I think its crazy to think that I could buy a condo and wake up tomorrow with no savings and owe the bank a ton of money. At the same time, the stress of housing uncertainty is really becoming difficult to manage.
———-

Welcome to big city living in Canada. 200k just ain’t enough.

S, you might want to sit down and do a few thought experiments, and keep focused on value for the dollar in Toronto. Calculate where you’ll likely be 20-30 years from now. Then compare your results to mine:

Our income is roughly half of yours, but we own an actual house – already paid for. 4 acres, big pond, 3000 sf shop filled with toys (atv’s, dozers, a motorcycle, and tractors), a leafy paradise (IMHO) with 138 years of history and counting. No debt on anything whatsoever. I have sent my kids to private schools since day 1, that’s basically a University Tuition for what will be 15 consecutive years in a row. I pay in CASH. I plunked down 11 grand for braces last year – CASH. I replaced both our vehicles last year too, just under 20 grand – CASH. I have a 21 year old portfolio that will retire us as millionaires. There’s an excellent chance both my boys might become millionaires too via the residual. We keep a nice 5 figure sum on hand at all times in CASH, just in case. Nothing here is extravagant, but the financial security is opa Fort Knox style.

HALF your income (and some effort, well… lots of it) allowed for this. Also remember the HUGE value of compound interest over time on your investments. If you decide to blow that 200K on a condo, make sure you understand you’re giving up a 1.15 million dollar portfolio 3 decades from now, even at a modest 6%, and even if you never put a single additional dime into it from here on in.

The critical difference between us, is that where I live; I get value for the dollar – you don’t. I did not have to sell my soul to the bank to put a roof over my familys’ heads, you’ve got virtually no choice. It’s what you’ve got left over at the end of the month that counts. You’ve put your leftovers to good use. Blow that great nest egg now, in your youth – and you’re done like dinner. Arrive at 40 half way through a mortgage with no savings – TOAST.

I can tell we’re cut from the same cloth, and you’re well ahead of where I was at your age (early 30’s?). Greatness is within your reach, you just need to move out of the GTA.

#89 MF on 06.06.18 at 11:17 pm

#63 Reply to MF on 06.06.18 at 9:20

And your point? You have bank execs in Toronto making good money as well.

While important, life is not 100% about money.

Most people enjoy the amenities of a large city.

MF

#90 jefferson on 06.06.18 at 11:22 pm

Just my two cents tonight,

People complain rent is expensive in Toronto.. but don’t consider cheaper and potentially better options because they won’t go north 30 minutes etc.

Not bragging, as some of you know I rent a brand new 3 bedroom townhouse for $1700 in East Gwillimbury, near Newmarket. I see there’s a handful on Realtor.ca right now, for slightly higher.

I live in it all to myself with two pets. Backyard. Garage. Brand new stainless steel appliances. 35 minute commute to my job in North York. If you had a spouse or significant other to split rent it would be unbelievably cheap rent for a great home.

For about the same price, you could be digging cockroaches out of your cereal box at some of the older apartment buildings I visited in Toronto.

#91 Ace Goodheart on 06.06.18 at 11:26 pm

RE: Trumpster’s history lessons: I wonder if the Americans realise the extent to which the rest of the world is laughing at them right now. The noise of the laughter is getting louder.

They have to be the most sheltered country on the planet to not see this.

They are becoming the literal laughing stock.

Their King Donald is going to smash everything, like the giant baby that he is, and then run away when things get to hot for him.

Meanwhile, the USA is becoming a running joke.

#92 ImGonnaBeSick on 06.06.18 at 11:29 pm

#81 MF – you asked.. I responded. I care about my emoloyees, not sure why you quotationed that. I can assume the intent. You Toronto people are so nice to converse with.

I can think of at least one thing your initials could stand for. Have a good night “pal”.

#93 Myra Andrews on 06.06.18 at 11:38 pm

Greater Vancouver Stats from realtor Paul Boenisch

June 6 New 295 Sold 156 TI: 12,154
June 5 New 359 Sold 101 TI: 12,105
June 4 New 376 Sold 117 TI: 11,942

June 1 New 224 Sold 105 TI: 11,817
May 31 New 208 Sold 109 TI: 11,975
May 30 New 286 Sold 113 TI: 11,964
May 29 New 303 Sold 158 TI: 11,882
May 28 no post from Paul

May 25 New 210 Sold 123 TI: 11,697
May 24 New 231 Sold 128 TI: 11,676
May 23 New 328 Sold 144 TI: 11,613
May 22 New 477 Sold 143 TI: 11,496

May 18 New 226 Sold 119 TI 11,208
May 17 New 191 Sold 110 TI 11,161
May 16 New 235 Sold 147 TI 11,133
May 15 New 315 Sold 178 TI 11,127
May 14 New 302 Sold 124 TI 11,052

May 11 New 183 Sold 132 TI 10,935
May 10 New 229 Sold 126 TI 10,957
May 9 New 309 Sold 172 TI 10,914
May 8 New 318 Sold 117 TI 10,835
May 7 New 389 Sold 131 TI 10,697

May 4 New 191 Sold 110 TI 10,540
May 3 New 213 Sold 103 TI 10,503
May 2 New 268 Sold 146 TI 10,481
May 1 New 363 Sold 134 TI 10,420
Apr 30 New 375 Sold 163 TI 10,459

April 16-27 New 2453 Sold 1224 TI 10,347
April 3-13 New 2111 Sold 916 TI 9,727

Mar 19-29 New 1834 Sold 1072 TI 9,032
Mar 5-16 New 2248 Sold 1224 TI 8,743

The inventory at the end of February was 8,211

#94 Linda on 06.06.18 at 11:38 pm

#9 – I believe the word ‘listings’ means the unit is for sale. Not for rent, so it follows that rental accommodations are not going to increase. Plus, with the current state of affairs regarding tenant vs. landlord rights, who in their right mind would want to rent out a unit they want to sell? Based on what I’ve read, getting a tenant out is not only a more difficult experience but a much more costly one. As in, the landlord has to pay the tenant to leave even if the lease has expired & the landlord has notified the tenant that the lease will not be renewed. Read back a couple of posts where a buyer had to pay ‘inherited’ tenants some $10,000 to get them out of the property they had purchased. I’m sure that wasn’t an expense they had expected when they made their offer. Yet another reason why those listing a property for sale wouldn’t want to have a tenant. It is just much easier to stage, show & hopefully sell a property when it is unoccupied…..

#95 yorkville renter on 06.06.18 at 11:56 pm

I saw my old rental (1+, 1ba) listed for more than $600 more a month than I paid… which is about 33% higher.

I still live in the same building but my unit is 40% bigger (2bd,2ba) and is only $200 more than what my old unit is listed at.

jackpot!

#96 yorkville renter on 06.07.18 at 12:03 am

I would love to see this exact graph for the past 30 years to see if that simply two-line graph can be as predictive historically as it just was.

would be SUPER interesting and SUPER helpful.

#97 conan on 06.07.18 at 12:16 am

“One day Canada will take over the World………..”

If there was a world price for fresh water and it operated like the oil industry does……. Canada could do quite well.

It would mean World class water management, but we can do that.

We could also generate clean energy at the same time. By lining the water channels, with high tech water turbines, just like at Niagara Falls.

Future is bright if we all work together.

#98 Fake News Again on 06.07.18 at 12:20 am

crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.06.18 at 10:34 pm
@#43 PG’er
“and can visit a big city (like super unfriendly YVR) when the wife and I feel like it (which isn’t often).
+++++
Ahhh yessss

Prince George aka Pig’s Gorge
While I agree with what you say about unfriendly YVR ( the security at most airports is a pain)

Well, when I want to visit a trailer park/strip mall experience….no need to drive all the way to Pig’s Gorge………I go to Surrey

_____

BC is such a pathetic banana republic now that the people that live here are trying to compare as to “who lives in the shittiest part” of BC.

#99 Balmuto on 06.07.18 at 12:23 am

In another sign of how ridiculous things have gotten:

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2018-06-06/sticker-shock-hits-new-yorker-hunting-for-apartment-in-toronto

#100 Oft deleted much maligned stock picker on 06.07.18 at 2:01 am

Trump not only takes offense at burning down the WH…..but with Canadian SMantha Bee calling his daughter Ivanka a ‘[email protected] There there’s Trudeau… making anti Trump speeches.. calling him names….calling him stupid, refusing to shake hands…push stupid leftist nonsense on behalf of Obama….etc etc. oh for the days of Brian Mulroney singing Irish Eyes with Reagan and getting things done for Canada. Trudeau is play acting the part assigned to him ….but doing nothing positive for Canadians. Why would Trump go out of his way for a petulant goof who’s gone out of his way to be an insulting clown? Sorry….I’m with Trump when it comes to Trudeau. Treat the dick like a dick…..until the dick apologizes or disappears. I think Obama promised Trudeau another state dinner if he foot dragged and made Trump lol like the bad guy. Looks like Trump is getting the last laugh . BTW….one of my energy picked has doubled since January…..pays a radioactive dividend….snack

#101 RW_M on 06.07.18 at 2:04 am

Good charts indeed. Incidentally, they show prices in Toronto marching straight up from 2012 to 2018 like a staircase, with a wee bit of jaggedness if you squint.

#102 Smoking Man on 06.07.18 at 2:07 am

Got no editor to suck up to on linked in.
Sorry Garth I know you sort of protect me on here when I go nuts with Jack Danials courage.

I’ve lost it brother. Feed me to the lions. I don’t give shit any more.

#103 Howard on 06.07.18 at 4:32 am

#3 Doug for President! on 06.06.18 at 5:01 pm

Once Doug’s majority victory happen tomorrow it will be beautiful end to this communist era!!!

Rent controls — gone! finally! We are a democracy and the market needs to decide prices not stupid governments!

Standard lease form — gone! As a landlord I have the right to ask whatever the hell I want! It’s my house! If you don’t like the questions then get lost and find another place to live!

Paying tenants to vacate — gone! It’s my damn house! If I want my house back then that is my right! Sick of these communists who want a life of luxury without having to own or pay for anything! get lost!

Lets hope Dougie will somehow put an end to that stupid stress test and that stupid 15% tax for foreign buyers. We are a democratic country and should treat people equally and not give extra tax to people helping our houses hold value. Government stay out!!!

————————————-

I assume this is a facetious post, but since there are many homeowners who think like the caricature above, I’ll ask if the government should also stay out in the following ways :

1) Primary residence capital gains exemption. Why should the government play favourites between one type of investment over another? No cap gains exemption! Government out!!

2) Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). Why is government backstopping banks’ mortgage loans? Government out! Let banks assume FULL responsibility for the housing loans that they grant. No more privatizing profits and socializing losses.

3) Lack of free information re: sales data. The government, by allowing the realturds to continue their monopoly on information, is putting buyers at a disadvantage. Is this a democracy or what? No hiding information from buyers!

4) 40-year 0% down mortgages. This has since been axed but was put in place as a government measure to support the housing market. Government out!! Let the housing market sink or swim according to market fundamentals and prevailing economics.

5) Low interest rates. The Fed is going up while we stagnate. The Bank of Canada is favouring homeowners by keeping rates artificially low even relative to our biggest trading partner. No more coddling homeowners at the expense of the country as a whole!

6) Greenbelt. Who is government to tell developers where they can build and citizens where they can and cannot buy? Get the government out, tear down the greenbelt, and start pouring concrete for McMansions.

So you see, realtors and housing shills seem to love government intervention and socialism but only when it benefits THEM!

#104 Howard on 06.07.18 at 4:38 am

#23 Willy Wonka on 06.06.18 at 5:52 pm

“Thousands” of new rental units is nothing in a city like Toronto. Immigration will go up significantly every year the federal Liberals are in power. Those new units will be filled up right away with no impact on rental prices or vacancy rate.

#105 Howard on 06.07.18 at 5:01 am

T2 groped a random woman at an event in 2000.

http://warrenkinsella.com/2018/06/um-what/

“I’m sorry. If I had known you were reporting for a national paper, I never would have been so forward.” – T2

#106 under the radar on 06.07.18 at 5:43 am

I have seen this time and again, people buying before they sell and now caught in a vice because they can’t sell.
The noose gets tighter when in the midst of this , life throws another curve ball for good measure. Falling prices and higher rates makes pulling out equity cumbersome and painful.
People need to think and plan before they sign ,not hope and pray after.

#107 Wrk.dover on 06.07.18 at 5:59 am

What a nice day to not believe I need to live and own in GTA! Again.

#108 NoName on 06.07.18 at 6:29 am

Ontario don’t forget to vote today, circus
must go on.

https://youtu.be/Zqct2SGoDE0

#109 Be Realistic on 06.07.18 at 6:31 am

Renting is a waste unless you absolutely have to live somewhere and simply do not have the financial means to reasonably afford a home.

I know there are a lot of books and opinions (like this pathetic blog) about how renting is the “better” option, but it’s just nonsense. An economic fad, albeit one partly fueled by rising RE prices.

I’ve also noticed that those who push renting make home ownership out to be some kind of hell. These people long for “freedom” and absence of any responsibility or “burden”, but home ownership is good for the individual and society at large. Caring and working on the place where you live is very important.

Money is only one part of the equation.

#110 MF on 06.07.18 at 6:41 am

5 Doughberman on 06.06.18 at 11:10

I’ll ignore your worthless personal attack.

But seriously, what makes Toronto “terrible”?

MF

#111 Wrk.dover on 06.07.18 at 6:50 am

Statistically, using rounded numbers, there are 1,000 people living elsewhere in the world for each and every Torontonian. The common thread in GTA, is they are forced to be there for work, you see.

#112 NEVER GIVE UP on 06.07.18 at 7:26 am

#3 Doug for President! on 06.06.18 at 5:01 pm
Once Doug’s majority victory happen tomorrow it will be beautiful end to this communist era!!!

Rent controls — gone! finally! We are a democracy and the market needs to decide prices not stupid governments!

Standard lease form — gone! As a landlord I have the right to ask whatever the hell I want! It’s my house! If you don’t like the questions then get lost and find another place to live!

Paying tenants to vacate — gone! It’s my damn house! If I want my house back then that is my right! Sick of these communists who want a life of luxury without having to own or pay for anything! get lost!

Lets hope Dougie will somehow put an end to that stupid stress test and that stupid 15% tax for foreign buyers. We are a democratic country and should treat people equally and not give extra tax to people helping our houses hold value. Government stay out!!!

===================================

Yeah…. Take care of your selfish!

#113 NoName on 06.07.18 at 7:35 am

Interesting read, Jonh Bolge is going diversified for employees of vanguard. Bye, bye spy…

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/vanguard-employees-wont-have-sp-500-funds-in-the-401k-plan-2018-06-06

#114 NEVER GIVE UP on 06.07.18 at 7:48 am

#28 S on 06.06.18 at 6:34 pm
I am facing the same predicament as Adam. I don’t have any debt, have developed a good amount of savings ($200k) and my wife and I both earn good money ($200k + a year). We rent a 2 bedroom apartment downtown for $2,500 a month and if we are given an N12, a similar unit will rent for over $3,500! Earlier, Garth suggested that it was the right time to buy a house but I really don’t have any desire to own a house in the suburbs. I don’t care to cut grass, shovel snow or deal with a long commute to work. I want to continue living in the city in a Condo with my wife and baby. I have convinced my wife that owning a condo is a bad investment but having uncertainty over where we live and thinking about moving is a huge PITA! The stress involved with finding a condo that works, in an area that works, that is close to work and daycare – it is really overwhelming and tiring. Every time we have moved, it has taken us a long time to find the right unit. Then there are costs involved with moving, effort involved with packing, time off work, etc. I think about the day the landlord will come and say that they need to sell the unit or need it for their own use and I don’t know what I would do next. Adam – I feel your pain and you are living my worst nightmare! I hope you are able to find a solution that works for you and your family. Garth – what advice could you give someone like me? Someone that wants to live in the city but also wouldn’t mind having some security. I think its crazy to think that I could buy a condo and wake up tomorrow with no savings and owe the bank a ton of money. At the same time, the stress of housing uncertainty is really becoming difficult to manage.
===================================
Renters are used like old boots, discarded whenever it pleases the landlord.

This system completely discounts the fact that the rental community enables all owners the ability to get into the rental business or the flexibility to move without selling.
Renters are an integral part of the whole system but used and abused.

That is why I propose a one year free rent buyout or cash buyout if a renter is asked to leave.

That gives the renter time to look and if they score the right place in 5 months they can use the remaining 7 months cash rebate to pay for moving expenses.

I have had to move a few times and it takes sometimes a year to find the right fit.

Landlords should either be in the business or not. Not just using people for their own selfish reasons of flexibility to be able to move back in whenever it pleases them.
We need to change the thinking here. There is no respect for tenants.

#115 dharma bum on 06.07.18 at 7:52 am

“For only a few hundred more, we’d be able to carry a mortgage, condo fees, and property taxes.” – Adam
——————————————————————–

Hey Adam,

Do yourself a big favour and do NOT purchase a condo.

Ever.

Bad idea.

If you really need to buy (vs renting), then suck up the extra expense initially and get a real house. With a little patch of land.

Sure, the value of that property might go down for a few years after your purchase date, but don’t worry about it.

If the reasons you state for wanting to buy vs rent are true, then get a real home, not a sky box. You should not be overly concerned about its appreciation potential at this point. It should be considered as a tool to raise your young family. A homestead. A base. A source of comfort, stability, peace, and refuge from the outside world.

When I bought my first house (in 1989), its market value plummeted by about 20% within a year, and stayed down for the next 14 or 15 years. I am still in that house almost 30 years later. I do not obsess over what it’s worth. It’s my house. I live in it.

Its market value did not matter to me. I was barely aware of its “worth”, since I was busy working and raising a family. Home is home. Financial assets are a separate matter.

Bite the bullet, buy yourself a proper home, and then forget about what it is “worth”. Concentrate on working and saving as much as you can from whatever is left over to build a diversified liquid financial asset portfolio over the next 40 years, and just forget about the value of your home. Focus on working, saving, investing, and pay attention to your wife and kids.

The house is a place to live, enjoy, and grow your young family. Make memories. Cut the lawn, barbecue. Paint.

Time, and your personal effort, frugality, dedication, financial discipline, common sense, and work ethic will take care of everything else.

Now, go do the right thing.

#116 dharma bum on 06.07.18 at 7:57 am

#28 S

“Garth suggested that it was the right time to buy a house but I really don’t have any desire to own a house in the suburbs. I don’t care to cut grass, shovel snow or deal with a long commute to work.”
——————————————————————–

Wahhhhh Wahhhhhhhh Wahhhhhhhhhhh…..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qS7nqwGt4-I

#117 Tater on 06.07.18 at 8:01 am

#3 Doug for President! on 06.06.18 at 5:01 pm
Once Doug’s majority victory happen tomorrow it will be beautiful end to this communist era!!!

Rent controls — gone! finally! We are a democracy and the market needs to decide prices not stupid governments!

Standard lease form — gone! As a landlord I have the right to ask whatever the hell I want! It’s my house! If you don’t like the questions then get lost and find another place to live!

Paying tenants to vacate — gone! It’s my damn house! If I want my house back then that is my right! Sick of these communists who want a life of luxury without having to own or pay for anything! get lost!

Lets hope Dougie will somehow put an end to that stupid stress test and that stupid 15% tax for foreign buyers. We are a democratic country and should treat people equally and not give extra tax to people helping our houses hold value. Government stay out!!!
—————————————————————
Excellent. While we’re at it let’s get rid of government backed mortgage insurance as well. Can’t have government meddling in the housing market, right?

#118 Be Realistic on 06.07.18 at 8:04 am

#114 dharma bum on 06.07.18 at 7:52 am

——————————————————————–

I could not have said it better. Well done, sir.

#119 Glengarry Girl on 06.07.18 at 8:08 am

Just some food for thought….the masses have been brainwashed for decades to believe that home ownership is good and renting is bad. With that comes all of the stereo type BS that some of us know is completely false. Fear is what keeps people in the group mentality beating to the same drum. I have rented 11 homes in 7 States over the past 10 years. We lived through the Seattle Bubble as a renter and witnessed the whole thing first hand. Our plan has been to be mobile and move for the jobs, enjoy the experience and save to retire early. We did this with 3 kids and the Fear that I read about having to move and find another apartment with a child wilst earning $200 grand a year is at the height of Greed and Stupidity. Many will be loosing that good job and having to move, now that’s something to be worried about. Our lifestyle is not the norm so the masses condemn it and assume we are unstable but of course as things came apart in the US we were redeemed. Meanwhile, we raised our 3 kids to be fiscally responsible, another rare traight. All are independent at 18, came home to Canada, all doing well. One graduated, got a job in GTA and rents a condo there, she’s 22 debt free, did it by herself. At the height of the Bubble it was assumed all Dirty Renters were broke loosers. They would destroy your house and not live as clean as a house owner. This false stereo type is alive and well currently in Canada. Home owners, and I use the term loosely since most are mortgage poor and soon will be underwater, feel Superior and smart. This mentality is about to have a huge upheaval. Because those that got themselves into the mess in the first place lack logic, once the reality of their situation comes to light they will feel a barrage of negative feelings. This time will be rough as they transition from home owner to Dirty Renter. The false narrative that goes along with houses only go up in value will be shot to hell and the masses will start to realize that renting is not a bad thing. With the correction comes mass migration. Jobs will be inevitably lost with Canadian GDP being pumped by Real Estate.

#120 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.07.18 at 8:14 am

@#97 Fake News
Never been to Pigs Gorge I take it?
I leaned that charming nick name for PG when I was there….. from a local.

However. The endless “strip mall” comparison to Surrey was all mine. :)

#121 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.07.18 at 8:31 am

@#90 Ace
“Their King Donald is going to smash everything, like the giant baby that he is, and then run away when things get to hot for him. ”
+++++
Nah, even Presidents cant run and hide.

Mid term elections in Nov.
If the Democrats recapture a majority in the Senate and the House of Representatives……ooh baby.
Get ready for a rocky next two years. The Democrats will be going after him with everything they have. Senate investigations will look under every slimey rock.

If he’s impeached, Trump has mused out loud that he could Pardon himself……
Constitutional experts have said that would be unprecedented and possibly illegal.
If Trump goes to jail he would be in excellent company. Almost 25% of US prisoners are 55 or older and prisoners get free medicare.

But not to worry, VP Mike Pence would pardon him in a heartbeat and then the world would have a ultra religious nutbar with the nuclear codes…….

#122 Howard on 06.07.18 at 8:38 am

#94 yorkville renter on 06.06.18 at 11:56 pm

I saw my old rental (1+, 1ba) listed for more than $600 more a month than I paid… which is about 33% higher.

I still live in the same building but my unit is 40% bigger (2bd,2ba) and is only $200 more than what my old unit is listed at.

jackpot!

————————————————

Before moving abroad I lived in a rental at Yonge & St. Clair. I paid $1325 for a junior one-bedroom (parking extra) in 2014.

I recently looked up the prices at my old building and the junior 1-bdrm now goes for $1650 a month, a 25% increase in less than 4 years.

#123 Lee on 06.07.18 at 8:38 am

Prediction:

PC 65 NDP 55 LIB 3 GRN 1 OTH 0

#124 Incubus on 06.07.18 at 8:41 am

The mistake they made was to rent a condo for prestige.

If they had rented an apartment in a tenants building it would not have happened.

He makes a daydream to believe in a 3.5% appreciation for 5 years. This will probably be a depreciation that he will suffer.

It’s funny to see people inventing pink scenarios to justify bad decisions.

#125 Conn Smythe on 06.07.18 at 8:56 am

#144 Dharma Bum

“Now, go do the right thing.”

A mystical moment. Just put down Frank O’Dea’s book Do the Right Thing to look at the blog dog comments and voila, there you go saying, “do the right thing….” Cue Twilight Zone music…

#126 Conn Smythe on 06.07.18 at 8:58 am

#114 dharma bum

Your comments about a home being a place to live and rear a family are spot on. I also saw my home decline in value in the 90s and couldn’t have cared less…

#127 Hot Karl on 06.07.18 at 9:02 am

Hot Karl in the city, runnin’ wild and looking pretty!

#128 Tater on 06.07.18 at 9:02 am

#40 MF on 06.06.18 at 7:18 pm
#29 Example on 06.06.18 at 6:48 pm

And just where are these tech superstars who demand 6 figure wages (E stats reported here) going to go?

Palo Alto?

What is the cost of living like there? Must be super cheap alright.

Toronto is absolutely booming. There is tons of in migration to replace those 3-4 thousand people. That’s why demand for RE is off the charts and a 600 square foot condo costs $600,000.00.

MF
————————————————————-

How do you square this with the fact that the GTA saw 30k more homes built form 2011-2016 than households form?

“Between 2011 and 2016, the number of households in Toronto rose to 2.14 million, an addition of about 146,200, according to the census data, the latest round of which came out Wednesday. That compares to 175,825 new homes built over that period. In other words, supply of new houses exceeded real household demand by almost 30,000 over those five years.”

Source: http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/toronto-has-more-housing-than-you-thought-canada-eco-watch

#129 In Garth We Trust on 06.07.18 at 9:04 am

An appeal to the mystic bearded financial oracle that runs this blog and all faithful blog dogs. It is time for a new political party to enter the scene in Canada. We shall call ourselves the FRASP party. Fiscally responsible and socially progressive party. Our leader will of course be the Harley riding, financial tea leaf reading bearded mystic sage that runs this blog and with blog dogs coast to coast, we should be able to have candidates in all the local ridings. Our conventions will be held in Garth’s new home town of Lunenburg. Get ready Canada!

#130 IHCTD9 on 06.07.18 at 9:25 am

#110 Wrk.dover on 06.07.18 at 6:50 am
Statistically, using rounded numbers, there are 1,000 people living elsewhere in the world for each and every Torontonian. The common thread in GTA, is they are forced to be there for work, you see.
______

Don’t forget all the ah… err… restaurants and entertainment. These things must be extremely valuable to the GTA urbanites as many seem to be willing to retire on OAS just to live close to a variety of eateries.

The choice between financial security without many eateries vs piles of debt with plenty of eateries seems like an easy one to make. Hell, the first thing that get’s chopped off our spending list when money is tight is eating out. It’s the lowest of hanging fruit when it comes to tightening up the budget.

#131 Blake clark on 06.07.18 at 9:39 am

Garth, is it possible to discuss in a post what would happen if the green belt were to be opened to development?
Would it be beneficial? Are we already overbuilding?
Is it even possible or would that be stopped on a federal level?

#132 Phd in Dumb Ass Fat Fingers on 06.07.18 at 9:42 am

#59 Smoking Man on 06.06.18 at 9:03 pm
I can’t understand why teacher and their newly minted socialists don’t get it. Money has wings, you treat it badly and it will fly off to greener pastures.
If the dippers win, business say screw it. Good bye.
But I’m sensing the teacher and their pets know the destruction a dipper govt will cause. They are happy about it.
It’s like punching yourself in the face and screaming at the mirror this is cool. Lets do it again..
Good luck Ontario. I’m watching from my safe space away from the deep hand of communism.
Good Luck Ford. You will need it. Your up against entire generation of brain washed masicists.

Dr Smoking Man
Phd Hetdonomics.
…………………………………………………………………..
OMG you now have another Phd in Hetdonomics now, congratulations Smoking Man.
Wow a Phd in Herdonomics and now one in Hetdonomics!
Does that last one allow you to discuss brain washed masicists? Not quite sure what masicists are but carry on! Your use of our English language is pure comedy, too bad your not a comedian.

BTW Ford will win!

#133 For those about to flop... on 06.07.18 at 9:48 am

I never finished college,mainly because I never started…

M43BC

“See Which Schools Have the Highest ROI in Every State

The average student loan debt is now $39,400, and yet Americans still like to believe that going to college is an investment in the future. It brings lifelong friendships, challenging coursework and hopefully a good job at the end. But has anyone ever thought to conduct a rigorous ROI analysis, considering the average tuition costs, student debt and earnings potential for graduates?

We found the numbers for our map from Payscale.com, which calculated a few different metrics for every major college or university in each state across the country. They took the average total cost of tuition (the red part of our visual), the average student debt (the puple part), the typical length of time to graduation (usually 4 years), and the graduation rate. They then determined the 20-year ROI for going to school by comparing two different populations: people who skip college and start a career right after high school, and people who go to college and wait to start a career. In other words, think about a high school graduate with 24 years of experience compared to a college graduate with only 20. What is the net difference, if any, in pay? That’s the blue part of our visual.

There are several high-level trends in our visualization. First off, no matter where you live, it clearly pays to go to college. Every single state has a large blue bar in it. The worst ROI for getting a degree is in Hawaii, but even their graduates will have earned $263,000 more than their less-educated counterparts after 20 years of working. The average ROI for all 50 schools (plus Washington DC) is an eye-popping $595,000, and the average loan amount is just under $29,000. That means that, on average, going to a high-value school gives you roughly 20x return on your money. Try getting that in the stock market.

Our map also lays out a nice visual of value schools across the U.S. The best value can be found in the Northeast, which is represented by the large blue bars in several states. There are several schools with $700k+ returns. Things look relatively modest in the South, with no state topping $700k. California meanwhile anchors the West Coast with the best value in the region, where Harvey Mudd College generates just shy of $1M in ROI for graduates.

Taking a closer look at the visualization reveals another interesting trend. Some of the schools are very well known, like MIT in Massachusetts and many of the state schools across the Midwest. But if you’re honest, how many of the top ten have you previously heard of? Clearly there are several schools with the word “technology” in the name, indicating that getting a science, engineering or IT degree carries some serious ROI. Many of these schools might not be well known in pop culture, but we bet hiring managers compete for the attention of these graduates.

But what if you are nervous about taking out student loans to finance your college career? After all, a lot of people start college but don’t finish. That can lead to the worst of both worlds: student debt but no degree (or higher earning potential) to show for it. The graduation rates are relatively high for all these schools, topping 80 and even 90+%. But if you still want to hedge your bets, consider joining the armed services through the Naval Academy ($0 in debt at graduation, but an ROI of $1,004,000). And if joining the military doesn’t appeal to you, consider instead a low-cost, low-debt school on our list, like BUY-Idaho. Graduates typically only have $17,700 in average debt, which comes out to only about $200/month in repayments over 10 years. If that still seems like a lot, remember, you’re going to make $468,000 more over the next two decades!”

https://howmuch.net/articles/best-value-colleges-by-state

#134 Home Buying on 06.07.18 at 9:54 am

The real problem is too many cannot divide the concept of a place to live versus an investment asset. The greater fools didn’t buy an asset, but bought debt instead, and many are going under water. It then becomes imperative to buy what you can afford, so a sense of investment diversity takes place in terms of assets. You must rent if you cannot afford a home or move elsewhere. Why buy a home for $1 million if the same home can be bought for $300,000 elsewhere? Those with cash can have it all, as then your in a position to diversify into a balanced portfolio with the difference.

#135 not 1st on 06.07.18 at 9:57 am

These buying in toronto posts are comical. Dont people realize that province is done like dinner. Will have a half a trillion in debt in a few short years. Demographics will contribute as well.

There is no reversing the trend. You are stupid to buy in Ontario and stupider to live there. Let the socialist own it now. Real canada, if there even is one after all this, will shift westward. Please dont come.

#136 rental property math on 06.07.18 at 9:57 am

#113 NEVER GIVE UP on 06.07.18 at 7:48 am

Renters are used like old boots, discarded whenever it pleases the landlord.

This system completely discounts the fact that the rental community enables all owners the ability to get into the rental business or the flexibility to move without selling.
Renters are an integral part of the whole system but used and abused.

That is why I propose a one year free rent buyout or cash buyout if a renter is asked to leave.

That gives the renter time to look and if they score the right place in 5 months they can use the remaining 7 months cash rebate to pay for moving expenses.

I have had to move a few times and it takes sometimes a year to find the right fit.

Landlords should either be in the business or not. Not just using people for their own selfish reasons of flexibility to be able to move back in whenever it pleases them.
We need to change the thinking here. There is no respect for tenants.

——————–
One year of free rent? Sounds like you want to have all the perks of home ownership but without the ownership part. In a few years I’ll be handing one of my tenants an N12 and will be moving in myself. I’ll give them a heads up a year in advance but if my situation changes they it’ll be 60-90 days. I find it very absurd that I have to move into my rental for a full year in order to have tenants vacate so I can fix the place up and sell. That’s fine, I’ll play by the rules. You can’t have your cake and eat it too.

Stop renting from mom n’ pop landlords and rent in a rental building. Every year I look at the equity I have in a property and how much that will churn in a balanced portfolio (except when I have amazing tenants who do minor fixes and aren’t tough on the place)

Any tenant who isn’t a retired boomer is probably a social justice warrior. You are reason why no one wants to be a landlord and they are sick of you. Tenants don’t know how to pick their battles. Before you start complaining about shoveling a single car driveway or mowing a postage stamp sized lawn, ask yourself what would a former home owner retired boomer do? The answer is plant some nice flowers and ask me if I want a cold beer if I’m called to pick up some mail.

Instead, you all have your agendas. You’ll never push a broom around the place. God forbid you put an NDP sign in the lawn. I swear most of you are like children that never grew up. I refuse to babysit people my OWN age.

The rental crisis is only for whiny high maintenance tenants. If you are 60 years old, retired and work at the golf course part time so you can play free golf, we are going to get along just fine.

#137 For those about to flop... on 06.07.18 at 10:03 am

Well i guess if you count the six weeks a year I had to go to trade college during the last 3 years of my apprenticeship,then technically I went to college.

I got paid to go to school and to learn my trade,as I stated in a post a few weeks ago was even able to by a cheapo house at the end of it.

Kids today like to suffer.

They do have nice clean hands though…

M43BC

#138 IHCTD9 on 06.07.18 at 10:11 am

#104 Howard on 06.07.18 at 5:01 am
T2 groped a random woman at an event in 2000.

http://warrenkinsella.com/2018/06/um-what/

“I’m sorry. If I had known you were reporting for a national paper, I never would have been so forward.” – T2
____________

There are definitely some dusty skeletons in T2’s closet. Sophie, years ago – scoffed when told of Trudeau’s denial of an affair in a CBC interview. She said “no marriage is easy”, also “I’m happy we had to go through that.”

I imagine he’s never had more opportunity than now, he’s got everything any Woman could ever ask for. How’s Justin handling it?

He does a lot of travelling…

#139 Mike in Toronto on 06.07.18 at 10:22 am

My wife and I refuse to rent from amateur landlords for exactly the reasons of the comments in this blog.

Bunch of whiners. When you offer services to people in our society which are findamental to their lives, you are held to account for the standards of the services you provide.

This is why Toronto doesn’t have favelas.

Now to go pay the WSIB for my nanny. Because there are standards.

#140 Calgary Rip Off on 06.07.18 at 10:30 am

“But Adam has to deal with emotion, his spouse, hormones, a potential kid, his friends and fear of missing out. Yes, pooched.”

Recently I had an argument with a person regarding truth. In LDS religion, persons typically comment saying “I know the book of Mormon is true” as if they had authority to judge God. Whats more accurate I argued was that they can choose to accept or deny. Jesus Christ died on the cross for sins of those who choose to accept Him. Its not like it didn’t happen. If someone at my work dies on the table in the hospital people can argue that it isn’t true that the patient didn’t die, but the reality is that it did. They can either choose to accept or live in denial.

The problem with all people, myself included, is that emotions are needed to make decisions. Studies have shown that if you choose to not make emotional decisions, chances are high that you wont do anything at all. Perhaps this is why in my high school year years, 1987-1990 I didn’t date female coeds. And it wasn’t because I am gay. It was because the emotional invest of dealing with most women is a waste of time and money. Fortunately Im married now so I don’t have to waste my time and money on prospective suitors.

What is key in real estate investment is some emotion to drive decisions so something is actually done, otherwise, deal with most decisions logically.

Facts: Calgary real estate is a joke. $500K for a shack worth $200K. Oh yes. And then the baby boomers close to retirement whine about how their house is worth that and how they have no money. I work with some of them. Everyone however has the right to voice their thoughts.

On rentfaster the rents in Calgary are about the same as a mortgage. Still. So logically if your job is relatively secure and you will be there say greater than 10 years, why would you rent? My co worker says she is ejecting from Calgary in 4 years to go to Ontario with her husband. Of course that makes sense to rent. For me, though, logically as Im not eligible for my pension until 2032, am I going to rent until then in Calgary? My emotions say no. That’s retarded.

Perhaps if humans were more like AlphaGo which has a neural net and applies weights to decision making with an undecipherable hidden layer, decision making would be more logical. Until that time I try to make a brick wall to dealing with the general public. My compliments to you Garth for your patience in maintaining your site and dealing with people, if I were you I would take my money, close the site and eject to somewhere nice where I had no interaction with the general public.

#141 Hot Karl on 06.07.18 at 10:53 am

We need to get past this whole renting or buying is better argument. Different strokes for different folks, that’s what Hot Karl always says.

#142 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.07.18 at 11:12 am

@#136 Floppie
“I got paid to go to school and to learn my trade,as I stated in a post a few weeks ago was even able to by a cheapo house at the end of it.
Kids today like to suffer.
They do have nice clean hands though…”
Classic and so true.
Trades kids. Get into trades.
Or, if you want to travel……. Trucking.

HUGE shortage of skilled truckers.
ALL the items I have to order from the US of eastern Canada used to take 5-7 days max.
Now?
10 -14 days minimum.
Lack of skilled drivers and new safety regs shortening hours on the road.
Trucker shortage…here now and going to get much much much worse.

#143 Shortymac on 06.07.18 at 11:34 am

I’ve been through a few “landlord selling the place” and YOU DO NOT HAVE TO VACATE THE UNIT JUST BECAUSE THE LANDLORD IS SELLING.

The next owner is obligated to take your lease and can only kick you out if they are planning to live there. If that happens, pay very close attention to the unit and make sure the new owner didn’t lie to you.

If it was a lie you can take your claim to the landlord and tenant board and sue.

If you have to move, the rents are still reasonable in various non-downtown areas of Toronto. No need to buy. Just keep looking.

#144 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 06.07.18 at 11:38 am

#130 Blake clark on 06.07.18 at 9:39 am
Garth, is it possible to discuss in a post what would happen if the green belt were to be opened to development?
Would it be beneficial? Are we already overbuilding?
Is it even possible or would that be stopped on a federal level?
………………………………

99% of Canada is a green belt.

#145 Damifino on 06.07.18 at 11:43 am

#134 not 1st

Real canada, if there even is one after all this, will shift westward.
———————————-

Hope you’re right. I’m about as far west as you can get and it’s seriously unreal here at the moment.

#146 Victor V on 06.07.18 at 11:46 am

I have a buddy who, after years of investing/saving, now has a diversified portfolio of about $1M or so, and rents a lovely 4 bedroom detached home in Toronto for $5,000/month with a multi-year lease term. The house is valued at $3 million.

So doing the math, his portfolio keeps growing, and the income from his portfolio basically pays the rent, and he gets to live in a mansion he could never afford to buy (even given him and his wife make a good living as professionals).

For some people, renting is a no-brainer path to building wealth while living very comfortably.

YMMV.

#147 Wrk.dover on 06.07.18 at 11:55 am

#129 IHCTD9 on 06.07.18 at 9:25 am
#110 Wrk.dover on 06.07.18 at 6:50 am
Statistically, using rounded numbers, there are 1,000 people living elsewhere in the world for each and every Torontonian. The common thread in GTA, is they are forced to be there for work, you see.
______

Don’t forget all the ah… err… restaurants and entertainment. These things must be extremely valuable to the GTA urbanites as many seem to be willing to retire on OAS just to live close to a variety of eateries.

The choice between financial security without many eateries vs piles of debt with plenty of eateries seems like an easy one to make. Hell, the first thing that get’s chopped off our spending list when money is tight is eating out. It’s the lowest of hanging fruit when it comes to tightening up the budget.

———————

And the beer tastes so much better at six bucks plus tip in multiples while standing in a shouting elbowing crowd than it does back at the condo! Heaven forbid you order a double double highball; bartender tout suit, another mortgage over here!

I save my urges to eat and drink with a bunch of strangers for Jamaican resorts. Everyone on the same page, and no one packing heat. And no cheque shock. Yeah yeah the big T has some great food, but just as much great disappointment at the same table is possible.

Eating at friends reciprocally is the way to eat out where I live, unless you want deep fry. But unlike Toronto incomes, keep in mind I live on air.

#148 $5,000 a month on 06.07.18 at 11:57 am

#145 Victor V – The annual rental income received of $60,000 becomes taxable income. Such a deal, but no thank-you.

#149 IHCTD9 on 06.07.18 at 11:59 am

#109 MF on 06.07.18 at 6:41 am

But seriously, what makes Toronto “terrible”?

MF
_____

Just my humble opinion:

1. Too many people, too close together
2. Too much traffic.
3. Crap public transport
4. Too expensive Houses
5. Too expensive Condos
6. Too expensive Rent
7. Too many folks on the fringe of Society
8. Too many folks on the fringe of Politics
9. It smells real bad
10. The water tastes like diluted effluent.
11. English is being butchered to death
12. Actual born Canadians are a Minority
13. Totally segregated population
14. Always present brown haze when sun goes away
15. Nowhere to ride ATV
16. Nowhere to fish Walleye and Pike
17. Tons of job market competition
18. Crummy wages for most
19. Super high car insurance
20. Gas always 5 cents more in the GTA
21. Stupid outdated events like the GPP and Slut Walk
22. Leafs are the worst hockey team in sports history
23. Tickets for same are most expensive in the NHL (?)
24. GTA will folks pay top dollar to watch said team.
25. Giant lineups at any event or venue
26. Homeless folks all over the place
27. Half the city suffering from Stockholm syndrome
28. Questionable Women (so I’m told)
29. No identity or culture
30. Lots of crybabies
31. Nothing Canadian about it

There’s almost nothing for a guy like me in the GTA.

I went to a local craft beer festival earlier this year. Everyone was half in the bag because beers were 2.00/ea. Millennial guys I’ve never met were walking up and complimenting my beard. Met all kinds of folks I hadn’t seen in a while, the beers were strange and great, plus I found 5.00 laying on the ground (which I spent on more beer). No massive lines, no stupidity, one big homogeneous crowd, 12.00 to get in. That beat standing in line outside Ripley’s aquarium for 2 ******* hours waiting to get in by a hundred miles.

#150 Fake News Again on 06.07.18 at 12:18 pm

crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.07.18 at 11:12 am
@#136 Floppie
“I got paid to go to school and to learn my trade,as I stated in a post a few weeks ago was even able to by a cheapo house at the end of it.
Kids today like to suffer.
They do have nice clean hands though…”
Classic and so true.
Trades kids. Get into trades.
Or, if you want to travel……. Trucking.

HUGE shortage of skilled truckers.
ALL the items I have to order from the US of eastern Canada used to take 5-7 days max.
Now?
10 -14 days minimum.
Lack of skilled drivers and new safety regs shortening hours on the road.
Trucker shortage…here now and going to get much much much worse.

_______

Of course there is a trucking shortage what with all the Surrey trucking companies under cutting everyone. No one wants to do it…….

#151 IHCTD9 on 06.07.18 at 12:22 pm

#141 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.07.18 at 11:12 am

Trucker shortage…here now and going to get much much much worse.
_____

I used to have a DZ, got it as a teen when I thought I’d try something different for a summer job. Now I have just a D, as years ago the Province brought in a bunch of stupid, costly, time consuming new requirements – so I let it go.

4 years from now, I’ll be back to a G, as the Province did the same stupid s#it with the D license. Even more costly and time consuming, so I’ll be letting that go too.

Then again – drivers out of the GTA work dirt cheap, so I don’t blame the kids for not getting into it.

#152 People watching people on 06.07.18 at 12:24 pm

We got the N12 over a month ago. Got a new place in 3 days for less rent (under $3k) for a 2 bedder + den, parking, storage locker and all utilities and fees, right downtown in TO. 2nd move in 3 years. Last one we looked for all of 2 days for a place.

Also get Beanfield to boot so my Internet costs are very low too, and that with $350 annually for insurance is the only thing I pay out of pocket for in all my rentals over the last 15 years.

With all the money we have socked away we could buy any of the condos we’ve rented many times over now.

The secret is to look when no one else is looking. Anytime between May 1 and Sept 15, rental demand is crazy, as students start the annual crush for housing. My best rental happened in Dec, 2 weeks before Xmas. Unit had been sitting empty since Sept, and landlord was desperate. Got sweet rental for %25 less than the going rate, which the landlord never raised for a decade. Moving in the winter sucks, but one day of stupid for a decade of extra cash flow… I’m ok with that.

#153 IHCTD9 on 06.07.18 at 12:29 pm

#98 Balmuto on 06.07.18 at 12:23 am
In another sign of how ridiculous things have gotten:

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2018-06-06/sticker-shock-hits-new-yorker-hunting-for-apartment-in-toronto
___________________________

Moves from Montreal to Toronto for 40% bump in pay. Now lives in a tiny overpriced dive and wants to leave.

Some day, our youth will hopefully involve a calculator in decisions like this.

#154 NoName on 06.07.18 at 12:30 pm

@ fartz

Maybe we should applys germany found solutions for refugies and trucking.

https://voiceofeurope.com/2018/05/germany-will-now-train-asylum-seekers-to-become-truck-drivers/

#155 Jimbo on 06.07.18 at 12:47 pm

Just remember a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. When you look at that 3.5% appreciation you need to discount that rate. In 5 years a Canadian dollar buys less and is essentially a different currency than today. Even if overall inflation stays low there will be increases to contend with and will most certainly make your dollar feel like less even when it is worth more….

#156 cmj on 06.07.18 at 12:48 pm

#135 Rental property math
I agree with your rebuttal to the person who made outrageous expectations for rental agreements
There are both tenants and landlords who have treated each other unfairly. There needs to be a fair and balanced rental agreement honoring both groups. Holding back rent payments or damaging a landlords property is absurd! Telling tenants they need to leave and then increase the rent substantially is also absurd. There are emails that instruct tenants of how to “play the system” and stay in their rental units.
Is it any wonder when either group hears the horror stories that they act defensively and find ways to protect themselves. This is not the route to go since no one wins. It’s vindictive. A sad day in reading these posts. Many have lost their way

#157 Owner Of Home on 06.07.18 at 12:50 pm

Here is a case where an owner has a $3 million home renting for $5,000 a month. He is taxed on the rental income, and if he sells the home has a further tax problem. Now if this at one time was his declared principal residence the sale would be tax free, and those funds could have been diversified properly.

#158 cmj on 06.07.18 at 12:50 pm

#135 Rental property math
I agree with your rebuttal to the person who made outrageous expectations for rental agreements.
There are both tenants and landlords who have treated each other unfairly. There needs to be a fair and balanced rental agreement honoring both groups. Holding back rent payments or damaging a landlords property is absurd! Telling tenants they need to leave and then increase the rent substantially is also absurd. There are emails that instruct tenants of how to “play the system” and stay in their rental units.
Is it any wonder when either group hears the horror stories that they act defensively and find ways to protect themselves. This is not the route to go since no one wins. It’s vindictive. A sad day in reading these posts. Many have lost their way

#159 dgb on 06.07.18 at 12:50 pm

re: #28….let me get this right..your incomes are 200K+…your new rent may go to 3500 per month ..that is 42000k per year and this is beyond your budget??? you have no carrying costs as does the owner(insurance,strata fees,property taxes,upkeep and repairs) .your landlord on the other hand foots all these for you plus the mortgage and interest…this would likely be costing him close to 75000k per year and you feel it unfair of him to recoup more of his cost from his renter…of your 12 x 3500k =42000k off of your income of 200000+ that leaves you with 158000k to pay utilities and eat and you feel he is riping you off?….you should feel blessed that he looks after your housing needs for such a small amount in return(fridge stove washer dryer dishwasher heating plumbing everything is his responibility to replace when worn out or not working) !!!I do not understand how you people can have it so good and waste your monies to the detriment of your living and just assume someone else is to blame…..try making 50000k income and paying 1325.00in rent plus utilities and still eat and find something in life to enjoy with the leftovers.we really need some form of life budgeting to be taught in the classroom as some have greatly fallen short in teaching their children on their own.what a world we have become where we cannot manage to live on 200000k per year and pay our landlord a decent amount for taking all of the risk for us….I’m ashamed for you and all others like you.

#160 saskatoon on 06.07.18 at 1:00 pm

if you are a government employee…or making bank from affiliated coercive taxation….

it is unethical to attempt to control government, when you have contributed nothing to the cost of operating it.

do the right thing today…and surrender your suffrage right…if you get $$$ from the state…don’t vote.

#161 Steven Rowlandson on 06.07.18 at 1:03 pm

These uber capitalists fail to realize that to get a lot people have to earn a lot and in many cases a hell of a lot more than the much derided as too much minimum wage.
If you pay people to be poor you can’t expect them to live any where near the job you gave them if the cost of renting is 2 to 4 weeks pay or higher every month instead of a weeks pay per month or if the cost of a home is 10 to 30 years pay instead of equal to or less than 3.
This is not communist talk, this is common sense and decency talk. It isn’t about free rides either it is about putting a stop to financial sodomy in the interests of the common good and that is part of the job of any ethical government especially monarchies. One might reflect on the idea that there are behaviours people like and behaviours that preserve the people and they are not always the same thing.

#162 BillyBob on 06.07.18 at 1:05 pm

#88 MF on 06.06.18 at 11:17 pm
#63 Reply to MF on 06.06.18 at 9:20

And your point? You have bank execs in Toronto making good money as well.

While important, life is not 100% about money.

Most people enjoy the amenities of a large city.

MF

===================================

You’re a funny one, MF. Always complaining about how you can’t afford a place in Toronto, but then defend its “amenities”, and refuse to leave it because you’d miss your friends and family. True, money isn’t everything, but you sure as hell need a lot of it – borrowed or actual – to buy a shitty house in Toronto, so either learn to love money a little more or you’re destined to never have what you apparently want. Protesting against the unfairness of it all will never substitute for cold, hard cash.

And at some point you should really decide what exactly it is you want, because I can assure you ain’t gonna have it all, and you don’t “deserve” it just because you’re from there.

You may actually have to sacrifice something to get something. Imagine that.

And yeah, Toronto isn’t terrible. It’s worse than that – it’s mediocre.

#163 IHCTD9 on 06.07.18 at 1:09 pm

#134 not 1st on 06.07.18 at 9:57 am
These buying in toronto posts are comical. Dont people realize that province is done like dinner. Will have a half a trillion in debt in a few short years. Demographics will contribute as well.

There is no reversing the trend. You are stupid to buy in Ontario and stupider to live there. Let the socialist own it now. Real canada, if there even is one after all this, will shift westward. Please dont come.
______

Ontario will be one of the first Provinces to experience severe revenue and debt servicing issues, but there is nowhere safe to move within our borders.

If you want to stay anywhere in Canada, and minimize the consequences of decades of stupid voters and even dumber policies – then you need to take the bull by the horns and plan for the day.

That means learning what you can do to offset/avoid the coming tsunami of taxes. You can live well, but you’ll need to become one in a million (no joke).

I am working towards eliminating my non-conventional heating costs, eliminating my portion of transportation fuels 100%, and being able to generate my own electricity (if needed, probably won’t be worth it). You want to pay the government less, and keep more in your pocket. Very few are even interested in this – forget about being able to pull it off.

One in a million. I’ll probably be the only guy in the province driving to work without gas when it’s 3.00/litre at the pump.

#164 Howard on 06.07.18 at 1:12 pm

#143 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 06.07.18 at 11:38 am

#130 Blake clark on 06.07.18 at 9:39 am
Garth, is it possible to discuss in a post what would happen if the green belt were to be opened to development?
Would it be beneficial? Are we already overbuilding?
Is it even possible or would that be stopped on a federal level?
………………………………

99% of Canada is a green belt.

——————————————————

Not where it’s arable and temperate.

#165 Mattl on 06.07.18 at 1:30 pm

#118 Glengarry Girl

7 homes in 11 years, sounds like a nightmare. I mean why even unpack your boxes. And renting through 2008 sounds great, trust you bough my after home prices got crushed? 200k income, please tell me you bought in 2010 ish and made 500k- a mil on home appreciation?

Overall point being we just went through the single greatest wealth generating opportunity the middle class will ever see. Those renting and cash rich in 2009, that didn’t but, shouldn’t be bragging about being debt free and mobile. With few exceptions renting is for the rich and the poor, middle class shrubs like me, in nearly all markets in NA, will never be underwater on RE purchased 10 years ago

#166 Mattl on 06.07.18 at 1:44 pm

#145 thats great that he can pay 60k a year to live in a home worth 3mm. What was that home worth 5 years ago? He needs his whole portfolio returns to pay his rent, and he missed out on massive RE appreciation. You can call that a win but lets be real, if he buys a place
5 years ago for 1.5 his mortage equals rent, he is 15 years away from being clear and his net worth is 3mm. Hindsight is 20/20 but lets be real here, this guy missed big time

#167 James on 06.07.18 at 2:09 pm

#148 IHCTD9 on 06.07.18 at 11:59 am

#109 MF on 06.07.18 at 6:41 am

But seriously, what makes Toronto “terrible”?

MF
_____

Just my humble opinion:

1. Too many people, too close together
2. Too much traffic.
3. Crap public transport
4. Too expensive Houses
5. Too expensive Condos
6. Too expensive Rent
7. Too many folks on the fringe of Society
8. Too many folks on the fringe of Politics
9. It smells real bad
10. The water tastes like diluted effluent.
11. English is being butchered to death
12. Actual born Canadians are a Minority
13. Totally segregated population
14. Always present brown haze when sun goes away
15. Nowhere to ride ATV
16. Nowhere to fish Walleye and Pike
17. Tons of job market competition
18. Crummy wages for most
19. Super high car insurance
20. Gas always 5 cents more in the GTA
21. Stupid outdated events like the GPP and Slut Walk
22. Leafs are the worst hockey team in sports history
23. Tickets for same are most expensive in the NHL (?)
24. GTA will folks pay top dollar to watch said team.
25. Giant lineups at any event or venue
26. Homeless folks all over the place
27. Half the city suffering from Stockholm syndrome
28. Questionable Women (so I’m told)
29. No identity or culture
30. Lots of crybabies
31. Nothing Canadian about it

There’s almost nothing for a guy like me in the GTA.

I went to a local craft beer festival earlier this year. Everyone was half in the bag because beers were 2.00/ea. Millennial guys I’ve never met were walking up and complimenting my beard. Met all kinds of folks I hadn’t seen in a while, the beers were strange and great, plus I found 5.00 laying on the ground (which I spent on more beer). No massive lines, no stupidity, one big homogeneous crowd, 12.00 to get in. That beat standing in line outside Ripley’s aquarium for 2 ******* hours waiting to get in by a hundred miles.
_________________________________________
You also just accurately described where I used to live in greater Los Angles area, minus the gangs with guns on every corner, Minus the 1000 plus murders per year I experienced in the late 90’s, minus the extreme racism and prejudice, minus the insane traffic that actually makes the 401 look appealing, minus the extreme severe poverty and I mean extreme, minus the massive wildfires, flash floods, and near I say earthquakes, minus the weird by laws and codes within the greater LA area with almost 100 little towns packed beside each other making up LA. The nice thing about that area was you could talk to your neighbours and they were nice but every single neighbour was packing a gun. Great feeling when your talking politics over a few beers. I kept my mouth shut quite a lot, just keep smiling and nodding my head in agreement. So yes your list describes many cities not just Toronto.

#168 jess on 06.07.18 at 2:17 pm

don’t get it. If number of listings went up why rental vacancies are so low?

humans being humans i’m sure there are copycats to this:

made the units seem like the units were rented installed auto lighting to come on at night leave shoes at the doors keeps tvs on etc hire straw renters when inspection come etc etc

Would the management of a REIT really care if a building was fully occupied? A shortage/low vacancy rate would make it seem more valuable to investors.

For example, here a latest one but there have been many.

Rochester developer’s son, nephew charged with bank fraud; includes …
http://www.syracuse.com/…/rochester_developer_robert_morgans_son_nephew_charged_w...

May 23, 2018 – Rugby Square Apartments on Dorchester Avenue in Syracuse are among the real estate holdings of Rochester developer Robert Morgan.

#169 IHCTD9 on 06.07.18 at 2:26 pm

#146 Wrk.dover on 06.07.18 at 11:55 am

And the beer tastes so much better at six bucks plus tip in multiples while standing in a shouting elbowing crowd than it does back at the condo!
____

Sometimes price does affect the taste of beer.

While shopping I noticed “de-alcohol-ized beer” on sale: $5.99 for 12 cans.

It sure did seem like they tasted better with every can I drank!

#170 SimplyPut7 on 06.07.18 at 2:31 pm

#145 Victor V on 06.07.18 at 11:46 am

In the GTA above $2500 a month, it’s worth it to rent, but most people in the city can’t afford to spend that much on rent. The GTA needs better quality places that rent for $1000, $1200 or $1400 instead of lots of great properties that rent for $2500 or more a month.

#165 Mattl on 06.07.18 at 1:44 pm

Interest rates are rising, the home he’s renting valued at $3 million may go down in value like the ones ‘For those about to flop’ has shown on this blog for years, or may not increase in value at a rate that is faster than investing the money in the stock market, which is happening in Toronto right now.

Only middle-class and lower income families are obsessed with real estate like that. Wealthier people would prefer the liquid financial assets that can be sold in a few days when an investment strategy starts to go south.

How many people in the GTA have investment homes they can’t sell right now because the market has turned. Very few homes in Toronto sell for over $2 million, even fewer sell for $3 million.

#171 Newcomer on 06.07.18 at 2:34 pm

#114 dharma bum on 06.07.18 at 7:52 am
—–

Man, you are seriously clinging to your home. Just remember that, like all conditioned things, a home is not a part of you (anatta), it is subject to change and decay (anicca) and when you cling to it, it will ultimately stress you out (dukkha).

The man said he likes condos. That means he is open to change and accepts that, at the end of the day, nobody ever owns anything. In a nutshell, he seems to be further along the path. Be happy for him.

#172 ThinkingMan on 06.07.18 at 2:35 pm

5 SunShowers on 06.06.18 at 5:07 pm
Trump is justifying tariffs on Canada because “we burned down the White House in 1812.”

I can’t believe Democrats cleared the field for the ONE person capable of losing to this complete buffoon.

It was a joke you morons!

#173 Doughberman on 06.07.18 at 2:36 pm

#109 MF on 06.07.18 at 6:41 am
5 Doughberman on 06.06.18 at 11:10

I’ll ignore your worthless personal attack.

But seriously, what makes Toronto “terrible”?

MF

————

It wasn’t a personal attack, it was an observation. You seem to believe you speak for everyone, or even a majority. You don’t.

A few points which make Toronto a terrible city:
– traffic
– weather
– poorly maintained roads
– terrible public transit
– costs of getting around the city
– parking
– large event centres are in poor condition (BMO field excepted)
– the smell of the raw sewage dumped into the lake after rain storms
– the algae blooms after rain storms which close the beaches

Most of all, what makes Toronto a terrible city these days, is that it is full of man babies. I can’t handle the whining, me first, man babies that have taken over the city. They are unable to do anything by themselves, always needing mom or dad to assistance even for the most basic tasks and decisions.

You, MF, are 100% a self centered, unable to get past the hurt of feeling hard done by, man baby.

An observation based on your history of posts. Not a personal attack. You often come off like an angry teenager.

#174 Shawn Allen on 06.07.18 at 3:00 pm

Government Worker Contributions?

159 saskatoon on 06.07.18 at 1:00 pm

if you are a government employee…or making bank from affiliated coercive taxation….

it is unethical to attempt to control government, when you have contributed nothing to the cost of operating it.

do the right thing today…and surrender your suffrage right…if you get $$$ from the state…don’t vote.

****************************
It’s hard to believe anyone could believe that no government worker contributes to the cost of government.

No point arguing though. People believe what they want to believe. It gives him comfort to believe it and so is harmless enough. Hopefully few thinking people would be influenced by such a silly view.

#175 The Worst Has Passed on 06.07.18 at 3:10 pm

If as Garth states that we have already had the little 30% correction, and now is a time to buy if there is a deal in impacted communities, then the worst has past, and there is no longer a worry about having bought a house that will go down in value. Nor should there be any worry that the condo will not sell.

The correction has passed, so its only a matter of time before the values go up again. Hold tight and don’t offload your house or your condo.

Not what I said, but nice try. The general correction has not peaked, has not passed and in many areas not even yet begun. By the way, you’ve posted here under more than 20 names, and done so 155 times – every one pumping real estate. Don’t you have a job? – Garth

#176 My Best Rental on 06.07.18 at 3:20 pm

It was located in a prime location on Bloor Street West in an 18 storey apartment building not far from the St. George subway with a restaurant on the lower level. It was a corner room that cost me a premium, and had underground parking. I miss it dearly as was happy living there filled with young women who invited me for dinner all week long. On occasion took each one of them to a movie night, and a restaurant snack later or a ride in my new car to the nearest beach. My total monthly cost for this accommodation including the phone and cable came to about $116.00 a month. Oh how things have changed.

#177 Glengarry Girl on 06.07.18 at 3:25 pm

Mattl #164

No, not a nightmare at all, an adventure actually. We rented homes and lived like we were on vacation with rent being much less than mortgage, no risk. Kids turned out ok so the fear mongering on that one can be canned. The mobility is what made my husbands consilting skills marketable, which is valuable to us and since he made more money moving made up for any gains we could have had sitting in a house. Renting made it easy to pick up and do this. Im also a minimalist so I dont have to move a bunch of junk that I don’t need. Moving every year is also a fantastic tax break. I didn’t say we make $200 Grand a year I was referring to the person complaining in the article Jeesh what a problem they have EH? Also, your logic and math is off, in hindsight u can pick a scenario and say you could make money on real estate, but when things are correcting you have no insight or guarantee of making 500 grand on real estate, it’s a gamble. Maybe you didn’t get what I said, I’m a fiscally responsible person and can sleep very well at night in all stages of a market correction. I guess my lifestyle is not for everyone but now the kids are out on their own my husband is shopping for a nice liveaboard boat, we could buy 3 houses but really don’t see that as living the dream.

#178 RG on 06.07.18 at 3:38 pm

“Interest today rewards no genuine sacrifice, any more than does the rent of land.” — Keynes

Bring on the euthansia of the rentier! Figuratively speaking of course ;)

#179 Lee on 06.07.18 at 3:41 pm

Garth,

Just tell us how low Toronto will go. I’m sure you know.

#180 not 1st on 06.07.18 at 3:45 pm

Thank god we still have quite a few baby boomers around to offset millenial stupidity. Wynn isnt qualified to clean toilets at Garths ice cream shop.

Dear boomers, you have one last task to save canada and thats giving T2 and gang a kick square in the nads in 2019.

#181 Dan on 06.07.18 at 3:48 pm

Well there is a book called Mc Mafia where author describes how BC residents get marijuana to USA and how much they make. So housing is not their main concern.

#182 conan on 06.07.18 at 3:56 pm

came to about $116.00 a month- My best rental

Sounds early 70’s

I heard The Poseidon Adventure was a great first date movie.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4p_f7Df2-oM

#183 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 06.07.18 at 4:06 pm

99% of Canada is a green belt.

——————————————————
#163 Howard
Not where it’s arable and temperate
…………….

Doesn’t have to be arable and temperate…..just green….that’s why it is called a green belt…….it is not called an arable temperate belt green belt. Get it ?

#184 Stoner on 06.07.18 at 4:20 pm

#159
It’s called voter suppression. And Govt employees do pay taxes and try living in a city without police and law and order for a day when a mob of looters is after your greatly earned wealth.
The kind of insane haters that Trump and Tea party has spawned. Thank God for Darwin.

#185 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.07.18 at 4:22 pm

@#143 Fake News
“Of course there is a trucking shortage what with all the Surrey trucking companies under cutting everyone. No one wants to do it…….”
++++++

Apparently the Trucker shortage is North America wide. Not just Surrey
50,000 drivers needed N.A wide.
But the American Trucker Magazine featured a Sikh “Driver of the Year” in one of their issues a few months back.

https://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjNjPi7sMLbAhX4CDQIHScfDA0QFggtMAE&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.economist.com%2Funited-states%2F2018%2F05%2F03%2Fan-all-american-industry-changes-the-all-american-way&usg=AOvVaw2gq77fZlyxfeQxUBY3zLVp
Apparently truck driving is considered an honorable profession in the old country.

The entire N.A. shipping industry is geared towards trucks hauling freight and with internet sales/delivery services booming……. get used to waiting for supplies/ material and more serious accidents.
I’ve had two different companies show up and the drivers couldn’t back their trailers into my loading bay.
They parked on the street and waited for the load to be fork lifted off .
Other drivers have no pallet jacks in the trailer and don’t know how to use them…..
Give most trucks/trailers a wide berth , inexperienced drivers abound.

#186 Howard on 06.07.18 at 4:25 pm

#165 Mattl on 06.07.18 at 1:44 pm
#145 that’s great that he can pay 60k a year to live in a home worth 3mm. What was that home worth 5 years ago? He needs his whole portfolio returns to pay his rent, and he missed out on massive RE appreciation. You can call that a win but lets be real, if he buys a place
5 years ago for 1.5 his mortage equals rent, he is 15 years away from being clear and his net worth is 3mm. Hindsight is 20/20 but lets be real here, this guy missed big time

———————————————————-

Well I guess not everyone is as perfect a market timer as you claim to be. Or maybe some people are focused more on steady financial management (balanced portfolios) rather than speculating on real estate.

And naturally everyone who was too young 5 years ago and/or had no Bank of Mom should just suck it up and applaud their elders for the great achievement of having been born at the right time and/or to the right parents.

#187 Howard on 06.07.18 at 4:34 pm

Incidentally, Glengarry Girl sounds many orders of magnitude more interesting than Mattl. What is it about RE cultists that makes them so utterly dull?

#188 Movie Date on 06.07.18 at 4:35 pm

#181 conan – Its amusing that you mentioned a movie date. There was this girl staying down the hall whose family sent her from Italy to learn English, and cooked me dinner often. The movie she asked me to take her to see was the Godfather – true story.

#189 Newcomer on 06.07.18 at 4:44 pm

#147 $5,000 a month on 06.07.18 at 11:57 am
#145 Victor V – The annual rental income received of $60,000 becomes taxable income. Such a deal, but no thank-you.
———

Exactly. Which is why the imputed rent on living in a house you own should be a taxable benefit. There is no logical reason for this not to be the case while we pay taxes on investemnt income. I say people should be able to invest 5.5K a year in their homes without having to pay tax on the imputed rent corresponding to that portion of the purchase price, the rest is fair game for the CRA.

#190 SunShowers on 06.07.18 at 4:47 pm

By the way, you’ve posted here under more than 20 names, and done so 155 times – every one pumping real estate. Don’t you have a job? – Garth

——————————————

The cynic in me would conclude that this IS his job (not actual real estate, but astroturfing FOR real estate).

#191 Glengarry Girl on 06.07.18 at 4:56 pm

Mattl #164

My point was that house buying = good renting = bad is relative to the situation. Your analysis of how to make money in real estate is flawed. I live in both Countries and this blog is about Canada’s Housing bubble not the US. I use the US as a recent example of a correction, because really they are all similar. I can tell u that in the US by 2009 people weren’t jumping back into the house buying mania. They were licking their wounds, many lost their equity in their homes if they had any also their 401s tanked. This all has taken some a decade to break even, some will never be whole. In Canada, with the Debt data as it stands is in for a similar correction, could even be worse. If you have cash to buy stuff, yes it could be opportunity. But it’s easy to look in hindsight and make a statement about how to make money in that market. What if you don’t want a house in the corrected market? Why can’t some people understand that owning a house is not tied to happiness or prosperity? I think many are about to find out the hard way how untrue that is. I’m renting a spot in a beautiful place for the summer, living in my RV, not stressing about the housing market or debt. I feel bad for those that got caught up in this bubble, now that’s going to be a true nightmare. I tell my kids, moving for a job offer, living below your means, that’s Freedom.

#192 Glengarry Girl on 06.07.18 at 5:09 pm

Mattl #164

My point was that house buying = good renting = bad is relative to the situation. Your analysis of how to make money in real estate is flawed. I live in both Countries and this blog is about Canada’s Housing bubble not the US. I use the US as a recent example of a correction, because really they are all similar. I can tell u that in the US by 2009 people weren’t jumping back into the house buying mania. They were licking their wounds, many lost their equity in their homes if they had any also their 401s tanked. This all has taken some a decade to break even, some will never be whole. In Canada, with the Debt data as it stands is in for a similar correction, could even be worse. If you have cash to buy stuff, yes it could be opportunity. But it’s easy to look in hindsight and make a statement about how to make money in that market. What if you don’t want a house in the corrected market? Why can’t some people understand that owning a house is not tied to happiness or prosperity? I think many are about to find out the hard way. I’m renting a spot in a beautiful place for the summer, living in my RV, not stressing about the housing market or debt. I feel bad for those that got caught up in this bubble, now that’s going to be a true nightmare. I tell my kids, moving for a job offer, living below your means, that’s Freedom.

#193 Penny Henny on 06.07.18 at 5:20 pm

Oh no :(

The one who once used to post as ‘Old Man’ is back.

#187 Movie Date on 06.07.18 at 4:35 pm
#181 conan – Its amusing that you mentioned a movie date. There was this girl staying down the hall whose family sent her from Italy to learn English, and cooked me dinner often. The movie she asked me to take her to see was the Godfather – true story.

#194 Made in Alberta on 06.07.18 at 5:46 pm

Canadians are no longer free.
-over 50% of our income goes towards income taxes, property taxes, sales taxes.
-another 25% goes to pay bank interest
– another 10% goes to pay energy companies for water, electricity, natural gas, gasoline.
What does that leave us left with? We are now part of the grid. We depend in the grid.
– its not worth owning real estate anymore

#195 Ali Baba on 06.07.18 at 5:50 pm

Debt and housing remain key risks: Bank Of Canada
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstories/debt-and-housing-remain-key-risks-boc/ar-AAyloO4?li=AAgh0dA&ocid=mailsignout

#196 Ali Baba on 06.07.18 at 5:52 pm

What the Bank of Canada saying about “Debt and housing remain key risks”: Bank Of Canada
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstories/debt-and-housing-remain-key-risks-boc/ar-AAyloO4?li=AAgh0dA&ocid=mailsignout