The conundrum

Is Dippernomics finally hitting the Left Coast housing market? Hmm, maybe. Ontario should take note.

The NDP’s draconian anti-real estate measures have really not even taken effect yet, but the psychology certainly has. You don’t increase the tax load on homeowners by hundreds of millions a year and expect (a) no change in human behaviour or (b) cheaper houses. And so it is – sales are falling in Vancouver and listings are bloating while prices are stuck. Vancouver’s empty house tax, meanwhile, has done zip to change the vacancy rate and the province has been successful in fueling a class war between the Wealthy and the Wrest.

Last month the number of transactions crashed more than 35% from year-ago levels (but up over April) and sit 20% below the 10-year average. Active listings were the real story – up more than 38% over 2017 and a big 15% jump from April. The news here is probably this: homeowners who previously believed the market would get better now understand it won’t. Things will only get worse, since four long years of Dipperdom lie ahead. So it’s get out now before prices and buyers grow more anemic, or wait and watch while mortgage rates increase and the new taxes bite.

Even the kids appear to be learning. Condo sales fell 29% from last year and that big spike in prices appears to be over as values stayed flat from April. (By the way, detached are in desperate shape – sales off 40.2% and a sales-to-listing ratio which is abysmal.)

In the nation’s biggest market, where real estate is also a political issue, sales have similarly crashed – 22% overall, with detached houses taking a 30% hit. Prices are still lower than a year ago – by 12% (last month it was 14%) – but again the real story is listings. While they’re multiplying in YVR, in the GTA it’s the opposite. New listings were 26% lower last month which puts this market into a more balanced state – fewer buyers and fewer sellers. The fact prices are falling is due mostly to softness at the top end of the market (over $3 million), and a whole lotta hurtin’ going on in York Region.

In that area the realtor Frankenumber shows a 17.5% price plop, with average sales numbers telling a worse tale – off about 25% from last Spring.

However, the average Toronto detached still costs $1.426 million and a condo comes in at $602,800. Those are unaffordable numbers. If the NDP wins on Thursday (which appears to be statistically impossible) you know what comes next – a tax on second properties, higher incomes taxes and legislated rents. If the Tories take it and Ford makes good on his promise to deregulate, including ending the tax on foreign capital, the bottom of the current cycle might be in the rear view.

As regular, addicted readers with no lives will recall, this blog was turned into a bloodied pulp by the rabble two months ago for suggesting a 30% price plunge in certain areas populated by desperate sellers might be the bottom. If you have been waiting for a correction and feel like vultching, we said, then give it a shot. The time might never be better to achieve success with a low-ball offer made to poor, over-leveraged owners eking out a terrified existence in their suburban McMansion.

So if the Cons take it this week, I’d say that was a prescient call. If the Dippers win, the bottom yawns before us. If it’s a minority, well, expect a mess.

By the way, here is a scary note in this week’s official GTA realtor media release:

“Home ownership remains a sound long-term investment.  Unfortunately, many home buyers are still finding it difficult find a home that meets their needs. In a recent Canadian Centre for Economic Analysis study undertaken for the Toronto Real Estate Board, it was found that many people are over-housed in Ontario, with over five million extra bedrooms. These people don’t list their homes for sale, because they feel there are no alternative housing types for them to move into.  Policy makers need to focus more on the ‘missing middle’ – home types that bridge the gap between detached houses and condominium apartments,” said Tim Syrianos, TREB President.

Five million empty bedrooms in Ontario? And here we have renters moaning about a zero vacancy rate, lease costs exceeding 30% of incomes and the largest demographic (the moisters) overwhelmingly in support of leftist engineering. Even the realtors know what’s inevitably coming – a dramatic increase in the taxation of land, real estate, housing and, yes, empty bedrooms. A wealth tax, based on property. Give serious thought to moving your bling elsewhere, while time remains.

157 comments ↓

#1 Peter McLean on 06.04.18 at 4:40 pm

I’ll let everyone on a little secret on how to gain riches. Buy low, then sell high.

#2 SunShowers on 06.04.18 at 4:45 pm

– Capitalism

– “Small government”

– A healthy distribution of wealth across society that doesn’t leave the masses one national crisis away from leading the plutocrats to the guillotine.

Pick two.

#3 MF on 06.04.18 at 4:58 pm

Lol “bottom of the current cycle”.

There is no cycle. Nothing seems to have gone down in price at all. Everything is just as unaffordable as ever.

This blog seems to be the only group of people who believe otherwise.

You can see the appeal of the NDP. Kind of.

MF

#4 NotLegalAdvice on 06.04.18 at 4:59 pm

#1 Peter McLean on 06.04.18 at 4:40 pm
“I’ll let everyone on a little secret on how to gain riches. Buy low, then sell high.”

– Your advice only matters if you are able to determine if now is considered the “low”.

;)

#5 Leah on 06.04.18 at 5:06 pm

So do you think its a good time to make a lowball offer on a place in the okanagan?

#6 ok on 06.04.18 at 5:07 pm

So do you think its a good time to make a lowball offer on a place in the okanagan?

#7 Reality is stark on 06.04.18 at 5:08 pm

The lowest common denominator.
Kathleen has decided that borrow and spend is the only way to govern. She is bowing out to give room to someone who intends to borrow and spend at double the rate.
The NDP now has a 4 point lead and can thank Kathleen for passing the torch. Death by taxes is our destiny.
No need to be envious of your neighbour. Just steal his belongings and tell him how good it is for him.
The Canadian way.

#8 Let's Go Expos! on 06.04.18 at 5:12 pm

And while sales have been plopping in the YVR/905/416 markets, perhaps some activity is moving east to the 514. I’ve been hearing some ‘noise’ about how foreign buyers are increasingly looking toward Montreal real estate. The failing and soon-to-be defunct Montreal Gazette recently did piece on the increase of Chinese buyers in the predominantly anglo West Island. More importantly, The Westmount Independent, a local weekly of a small and wealthy residential enclave did a piece on Chinese buyers in their recent Real Estate Supplement. What I found interesting was the use of marriage location in the title deed as a measure of where buyers are from:

“Almost as many Westmount real estate buyers were married in China as in Quebec, the latest 6-month count of title deed data shows. At least 30 buyers of Westmount residential property in the second six months of 2017 were married in China, compared to 33 who had been married in Quebec.

The next-highest numbers show only five who were married in the United States and three in Ontario. While it is nearly impossible to gauge the nationality of buyers with any accuracy, a study of the deeds of sale usually includes information on the location of married buyers’ weddings, since this indicates the types of marriage contracts that might, eventually, affect the disposition of the property in the cases of death, divorce or family partition.”

It continues: “Thus, 149 title deeds last year reported the country in which the buyer or buyers were married. Of those, 66 or 44 percent were married in Quebec, while 51 were married in China. The numbers for the first half-year favoured the Quebec-married buyers 33-21, and though the number of Quebec-married buyers stayed the same in the second half of the year, the number married in China jumped significantly.”
http://www.westmountindependent.com/WIv12.5c%20RE.pdf

Anecdotally, I would say there seems to be a proliferation of real estate agents catering to Chinese buyers, whether in Westmount, Downtown and even the souless and poorly planned collection of Condo buildings that have sprouted in Griffintown over the past decade. I mean, check these guys out:
https://vimeo.com/194618842

#9 Figus Makum on 06.04.18 at 5:17 pm

The Truth About Ontario’s Debt Crisis

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tax7H6O_Yw4&feature=youtu.be

The debt trend is NOT your friend.
Some takeaways:
Ontario’s debt doubled in last 10 years;
Debt servicing is 4th largest cost after health care,
education and social services;
40% of Ontario’s $312 billion debt due during next
governmental term;
Ontario’s debt/GDP ration has exploded from 9.1% in
80-81 to just under 40% at present;
Last 3 years, Ontario’s net debt increased by $22.8 billion;
Next 3 years, the proposed budget calls for a provincial debt to grow by $52 billion;
NDP’s election platform spending greater than that of Liberals’ by more than $5 billion in 21/22.

PC’s costed election platform is ……… TBD.

Vote accordingly.

#10 dakkie on 06.04.18 at 5:19 pm

Housing Bubbles in Sydney & Melbourne Deflate

http://www.investmentwatchblog.com/housing-bubbles-in-sydney-melbourne-deflate/

#11 Marketpundit on 06.04.18 at 5:24 pm

Cognitive Dissonance I will have!
I was looking forward to today’s RE numbers for Ontario. GTA specifically. So, on the way to work and back, i was listening 1010AM and 640AM. Both stations reported on results as neutral to slightly negative. But mostly negative vibe i got from those stations.
However, when i got home i checked BnnBLOOMBERG website. There you can see how today’s morning headline reads:” Toronto Home Prices Climb For The Fifth Month”.
And, most recent article/video published on the website has Poloz talking about rising RE prices in Toronto and Vancouver.

#12 MaxBerniersShorts on 06.04.18 at 5:31 pm

#7 Lets Go Expos
And I’m sure Garth will tell you there’s nothing to see in those stats, please move along…

#13 waiting on the westcoast on 06.04.18 at 5:36 pm

…fueling a class war between the Wealthy and the Wrest….

Awesome Garth! – you should be a writer! ;-)

#14 How To Bridge The Gap on 06.04.18 at 5:36 pm

This as a question is not easy to answer. It has to be somewhere in the middle from a detached home to a condo. Logic points to a townhouse rather than a box high in the sky. The very thought of moving into a townhouse becomes negative for many couples because of attributes to be given up. What is the solution here? I can only think of one.

#15 Jerry on 06.04.18 at 5:39 pm

Christy Clark and the liberals set the fuel to this class war you are talking about Garth and all the NDP are doing is putting it out. The taxes are working. Prices are stabilizing here and eventually they will decrease. Surprise but this is what the people of BC voted for. I keep hearing the same lines from conservatives about it being a wealth tax. Everyone here sees it as real estate freeloading taxes. To all the people of Ontario thinking of voting for Ford think again. BC is the experiment that you should use as a lesson. Ford is the same person as Christie Clark. It will take years for BC NDP to dig us out of the devestation the previous govt left here. If you want a chaotic housing market, class warfare, and tax cuts for the richest paid for at the expense of every social program Ford is your guy

#16 Stan Brooks on 06.04.18 at 5:39 pm

It is logical, increase property taxes.
Rich people should pay their fair share of taxes.

#8 Figus Makum on 06.04.18 at 5:17 pm

It is mind-blowing how clusterf…ed this place/Ontario is and nobody seems to care.
Nobody seems to notice.

It is worth living for the days of recon. Stocking on popcorn in anticipation. Oh that orgasmic schadenfreude…

#17 k on 06.04.18 at 5:41 pm

Winston Churchill once said… If you don’t have some leanings toward socialism in your youth you have no heart. However in later years when you have grown up and still value the merits of socialism you have no brain !

Brilliant ! George Orwell Animal Farm “All animals are equal . However some are more equal than others ” China today !

#18 Doug t on 06.04.18 at 5:45 pm

Greed and FOMO are destroying this country and once it implodes there will be huge casualties

RATM

#19 RW_M on 06.04.18 at 5:46 pm

“this blog was turned into a bloodied pulp by the rabble two months ago for suggesting a 30% price plunge in certain areas populated by desperate sellers might be the bottom”

That’s because practically nothing did go down by 30%. Everything in eyeshot of where I grew up has gone straight up by about $1 million dollars since I started reading this blog; I’m sure there’s a jagged line in there somewhere if you zoom the graph enough.

#20 Stan Brooks on 06.04.18 at 5:46 pm

Here it is, loonie holders:

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/canada-faces-significant-risks-u-205559312.html

In the preliminary findings of its annual review of the Canadian economy, the IMF said that interest rates should be raised only gradually, even as inflationary pressures are building and that the Bank of Canada’s approach appears to be broadly appropriate.

That is right folks, expect real inflation/cost of living at 10-12 %, CPI at 4-5 % and no change in interest rates.

That is apparently the right thing to do.

Cheers savers and retirees on fix income. How is that 1.1 % pension indexing working for ya?

#21 Howard on 06.04.18 at 5:57 pm

In that case, the bulls were right, as long as Conservatives win elections. Real estate really does keep going up forever in urban centres, since there was precisely zero correction in the 416. Interesting how you now say that foreign buyers will be a key component to giving Toronto prices some acceleration again.

Here’s hoping for a minority government and a Liberal seat tally of precisely zero. I never want to see Orville’s face or hear her voice ever again.

#22 Hiding On the Backstreets on 06.04.18 at 5:57 pm

“Vancouver’s empty house tax, meanwhile, has done zip to change the vacancy rate and the province has been successful in fueling a class war between the Wealthy and the Wrest.”

Is the purpose of the govt’s measures really to reduce house prices and enhance affordability, or is the whole rigamarole just more government gobblygook?

People know that the government talks a big game, but deep down couldn’t give a flying f**k about house prices. Even if they knew what they were doing.

It’s just another insidiuos tax scheme.

#23 Kilt on 06.04.18 at 6:05 pm

CowTown numbers are looking awful. Should be interesting to see where prices go come September.

Kilt.

#24 jess on 06.04.18 at 6:06 pm

do you think mr. ford just needs a job?

The widow and children of Toronto mayor Rob Ford have sued Doug Ford alleging he has deprived them of millions of dollars, including shares in the family business and a life insurance policy left behind to support his family.

In a $16.5-million lawsuit, filed Friday in Superior Court, Renata Ford also alleges that Doug Ford is a “negligent” business manager whose decisions have led to a steady decrease in the value of the Ford company, Deco Labels. Despite setting his sight on a political career, Doug has continued to receive “extravagant compensation,” even though Deco is losing money, Renata claims in her court filings.

Rob Ford’s widow sues Doug Ford, alleging he has deprived her and her children of millions

In a $16.5-million lawsuit, filed Friday in Superior Court, Renata Ford also alleges that Doug Ford is a “negligent” business manager whose decisions have led to a steady decrease in the value of the Ford company, Deco Labels.

#25 jess on 06.04.18 at 6:12 pm

law suit against doug ford …changes things eh/

#26 Conservative Canadian Millenial on 06.04.18 at 6:14 pm

DELETED

#27 Nonplused on 06.04.18 at 6:15 pm

Of course there are 5 million empty bedrooms in Toronto. That’s just the way building houses works. It would be stupid to build a 1 bedroom house because the pool of buyers who might one day buy it from you is so small. That’s what condos are for. So you build a 3 bedroom house, sell it to a couple, and 2 bedrooms are empty. Most likely the couple fills the bedrooms up over the next few years, but 18 to 25 years later the bedrooms are empty again and they stay that way until the couple retires and sells the house.

My dad built a 1 bedroom house and it has definitively affected his resale value because only retirees are interested in it and most of them already have houses. So you have to build extra bedrooms even if you don’t need them.

I’ve got 2 empty bedrooms myself. But I need them because my adult children often stay in them when they are back from school. So I can’t rent them out. I wouldn’t want to rent them out anyway because who wants roommates at my age? And it would make no sense to remove them because when I go to sell the buyers would probably want them. And I am not sure how you go about removing a bedroom anyway. I would just call them both “offices” if the tax man ever came after them.

So anyone who thinks there is some insight in counting the number of empty bedrooms in a city is disingenuous at best and below average IQ at worst. Even couples who buy condos often get a 2 bedroom so they have some place to put the computer and store their bikes. There is no significance to this statistic and there is no way to use it to address the housing shortage. All it is is yet another lie to support yet another tax proposal.

Also it’s good to have an extra bedroom in case your wife starts snoring.

#28 dr talc on 06.04.18 at 6:15 pm

Type into google ‘doug ford’
you will see Every headline is negative: Every headline!
That’s called an agenda, by all MSM
Now the same people who deliver those lies, are delivering ‘new pole results’ showing an NDP surge.
People, I can guarantee one thing: there is no surge.
Never believe Proven liars
If you catch your spouse cheating on you several times, you will never believe them again. So treat the MSM the same way.

#29 Smartalox on 06.04.18 at 6:18 pm

REBGV Observations May 2018:
Detached sales ‘Year to Date’ are now down in all sectors, and accelerating. Previous months had shown some growth in sales in New West and Maple Ridge, but sales in these areas are now at -6% and -14% respectively. Only East Van showed a faint ‘dead cat’s bounce’, reporting a 29% decrease in YTD sales in May, compared to a 45% decrease in YTD sales reported in April.

– Median Price appreciation YTD is decelerating rapidly in all areas;
– Maple Ridge, New West, and PoCo have all peaked.
– North Van is at 0% for the second straight month, while Burnaby, Richmond and Van East are in the low single digits, and are expected to turn negative, soon.
– Van Westside median prices are now at -2% compared to last year, (was -1% last month) and West Van prices are holding at -15% year-over-year for another month. They were at -7% in March’s data.

Comparing May 2017 and May 2018, monthly sales are down in all areas; Van west is down 51%, Coquitlam down 49%. The ray of light is East Van, where sales are only down 29%(!). Year to Year comparisons of sales to listings ratios are down in all areas as well, reflecting sluggish sales, while the number of listings in all areas appears flat, or slowing;
– the only real competition evident right now is in New West, (new listings up 19%) though there too, the rate of new listings is declining (listings were up 31% in April, and up 25% in March).

– What does all this mean? I think that we can call this the Wile E. Coyote phase of the cycle, where he’s off the cliff, he’s realised that he’s hanging in the air, and parts of his body have started to drop out of the frame, while only his head, and maybe a hand holding up a sign (‘Oh S—t!’) hang suspended for one last instant.

The time of big year-over-year gains is OVER. Median sale prices (not listing prices) are flat, or have actually been declining for the last several months.

Sales are plummeting, and the significant declines in sales-to-listing ratios reflect this.

At the same time, the numbers of new listings are very, very low, suggesting that owners are still holding back. Either they don’t like the advice they’re getting from their agents with regard to pricing, they’re content to hold onto their properties, or they have now missed their chance to monetize their gains.

Next update in July!

#30 The Real Mark (not the imposter) on 06.04.18 at 6:21 pm

“However, when i got home i checked BnnBLOOMBERG website. There you can see how today’s morning headline reads:” Toronto Home Prices Climb For The Fifth Month”.”

That’s your problem. Tune out the propaganda channel. Start listening to some real news. Anyone who has legitimately studied the Canadian, and the GTA/GVR RE market in particular knows it peaked in 2013 price-wise, and any alleged ‘increases’ since then have been sales-mix driven.

There’s been so many completely inaccurate and out to lunch articles written by that Bloomberg outfit. Quite frankly, the National Inquirer is more credible at this point.

#31 Danny on 06.04.18 at 6:22 pm

“the average Toronto detached still costs $1.426 million and a condo comes in at $602,800. Those are unaffordable numbers.”

Garth………Yes Etobicoke Central prices are very close to your numbers.

I have noticed in the last 2 weeks……more units in homes and condos for sale….probably….20% increase.

One condo completely renovated……..on sale for 8 weeks….was at $810,000……now down to $699,000…
Will probably sell……and be recorded by the Real Estate Cartel……as sold “for asking”

This unit sold for $610,000 one year ago….before renovation.

Although many are hoping that a Ford win……will save the day….for homeowners ready to sell.

City is now discussing “Second Units ” ……in homes and I am sure it will not go over well in Etobicoke Centre…….they are anti anything but one home one unit…..despite all those empty bedrooms.

They moved here to get away from the “rift raft “. That is how they view people of lower income…….who said only India has a”class society?

The origins of suburbia….was to keep certain people out and have no “through streets “…..you know where the Fords live. Too bad for Doug…….many Immigrant Italians moved there in the 1960’s…..Sorry Doug you can’t get away from immigrants.

#32 Jeremy on 06.04.18 at 6:32 pm

So we’ve had the longest real estate bull market in a generation and after 6 months of softening you say it’s time to jump in with a lowball offer and save 10 percent? You called it wrong on the way up and it seems like you are calling it wrong on the way down too. At least you are consistent.

I said in select areas where declines hit 30%. Can’t you read? – Garth

#33 Honey Dripper on 06.04.18 at 6:35 pm

My vote is in. I had to go with the trend and people who can at least talk to my level. Phew!

#34 Musty Basement Dweller on 06.04.18 at 6:41 pm

Empty Bedrooms Tax has a nice ring to it. Maybe they can test drive that in Toronto and I’m sure we would buy into the idea afterwards in Vancouver.

#35 John on 06.04.18 at 6:45 pm

**If the Dippers win, the bottom yawns before us**

Meaning that “Here’s the bottom if they win!”?? Deregulation will keep prices and sales up??

#36 akashic record on 06.04.18 at 6:51 pm

“many people are over-housed in Ontario”

The use a Commie terminology, used to justify the distribution of the limited inventory of apartments has found it’s way to Canadian Centre for Economic Analysis in their quest for “collaborative evidence-based evaluation for the economic prosperity of Canadians”.

It didn’t even need to elect NDP majority.

#37 akashic record on 06.04.18 at 7:03 pm

Line up time, Gulag goes global.

As part of its “media monitoring,” the DHS seeks to track more than 290,000 global news sources as well as social media in over 100 languages, including Arabic, Chinese and Russian, for instant translation into English. The successful contracting company will have “24/7 access to a password protected, media influencer database, including journalists, editors, correspondents, social media influencers, bloggers etc.” in order to “identify any and all media coverage related to the Department of Homeland Security or a particular event.”

“Any and all media coverage,” as you might imagine, is quite broad and includes “online, print, broadcast, cable, radio, trade and industry publications, local sources, national/international outlets, traditional news sources, and social media.”

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-06-04/department-homeland-security-compiles-list-all-bloggers-journalists-social-media

#38 SunShowers on 06.04.18 at 7:06 pm

#24 Conservative Canadian Millenial on 06.04.18 at 6:14 pm
There are 14 to 88 reasons why we should vote for Doug Ford this Thursday.
——————————————————-

Hey Garth, you might want to Google 1488 and decide if you want this apparent white nationalist continuing to post on your blog.

Done. – Garth

#39 leebow on 06.04.18 at 7:06 pm

#24 Conservative Canadian Millenial

14 and 88 you say? Are you a nazi? Fourteen words?

#40 Stan Brooks on 06.04.18 at 7:11 pm

Empty suburban cardboard particles house bedroom and a crocodile (soon to be former ontario politician) in white dentelle/sateen lingerie in it…. approaching a smoking hot young sexy quebec boy with duck socks…. for a game of curling.

What a dream…

#41 The ghost of rofo rises on 06.04.18 at 7:13 pm

Go get him renata!

#42 Penny Henny on 06.04.18 at 7:16 pm

#19 Howard on 06.04.18 at 5:57 pm
Here’s hoping for a minority government and a Liberal seat tally of precisely zero. I never want to see Orville’s face or hear her voice ever again.

////////////////

Just wondering how there might be possible to have a minority government and the Libs winning zero seats?
You think the green party is going to win a seat?

#43 Mark Zolt on 06.04.18 at 7:35 pm

DELETED (libel)

#44 Wrk.dover on 06.04.18 at 7:40 pm

I built my house with one bedroom, specifically for my wife and I in 1981. So far we are thrilled with it, but the property assessor seems to think it has no relative value, as reflected by the low taxes for this neighbourhood.

So yeah, have more bedrooms than you need, maybe two 8X10’s, as in a whopping 160 sq/ft bigger house, and pay double the tax which I actually do enjoy paying, go for it!

#45 jess on 06.04.18 at 7:41 pm

As Barrie has boomed in population, demand for housing has spiked too, putting it out of reach for many in the city, which is home to about 150,000 people, 110 kilometres north of Toronto.

Last month, the city was the fourth most expensive place to rent in the country according to Padmapper, behind Vancouver, Toronto and Burnaby, B.C. One bedroom rents in Barrie averaged $1,380. The price of buying a detached home averaged about $500,000 in 2017

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/affordable-housing-election-1.4689932

#46 adee on 06.04.18 at 7:42 pm

Various long term and short term government policies have led to ridiculous house price appreciation and misaallocation of capital.
The primary beneficiaries have been long term homeowners who will realize incredible tax free gains. A wealth tax on their risk free windfall is not inappropriate given every other government intervention. Until Canada gets more competitive internationally, all we can do is poach off each other…

A fair nation either allows tax-free capital gains on residential real estate or it doesn’t. We tax what people earn, not what they possess. Don’t fall down that slippery slope. – Garth

#47 Reynolds531 on 06.04.18 at 7:43 pm

Those aren’t bedrooms. That’s a wine room and and art collection atrium.

#48 SoggyShorts on 06.04.18 at 8:00 pm

#24 Conservative Canadian Millenial on 06.04.18 at 6:14 pm
There are 14 to 88 reasons why we should vote for Doug Ford this Thursday.

14 stands for the 14 words, “We must secure the existence of our people and a future for white children.” A phrase coined by David Lane, not George Rockwell, who instead started the term white power. 88 Can refer to HH, Heil Hitler, or to another of David Lane’s works the 88 precepts. Which is an essay he wrote and is in his book. The other guy was close but still incorrect.
Garth, I think this one slipped by your filter.

Comment now deleted. – Garth

#49 Sennie Relum on 06.04.18 at 8:02 pm

Renata wants to sue Doug and family. This will only embolden the Ford Nation Base. Expect a Full Majority PC Party elected Thursday. Sorry Kathleen.

#50 What can I say about that? on 06.04.18 at 8:07 pm

“this blog was turned into a bloodied pulp by the rabble two months ago for suggesting a 30% price plunge in certain areas populated by desperate sellers might be the bottom” – Garth

————————————————

Nothing went down as far as I can see. For the last 10+ years, TO RE has followed a very definite overall upward trend with some very minor dips. If you ever want to buy and can handle it financially, might as well go ahead. TO RE will never go down.

It just did. – Garth

#51 the Jaguar on 06.04.18 at 8:17 pm

I notice the coat of arms that belongs to the previous building owner is still intact above the doorway in the Lunenburg photo. Is that staying in the new design?

By decree of heritage guardians, yes. – Garth

#52 Victor V on 06.04.18 at 8:18 pm

From politico Warren Kinsella via Facebook:

———

Kathleen Wynne doesn’t think she should have resigned.

On Saturday, five days before Election Day, the Ontario Liberal leader conceded the election. Usually, politicians wait until, you know, the actual vote has taken place. But Kathleen Wynne insisted she was doing so because she wanted to help her party’s candidates. “I would never want to do anything that would undermine any of my candidates, any of those races. I have thought long and hard about this, believe me,” she said.

Her view: I’m helping out my caucus and candidates by throwing in the towel. The view of many Ontario Liberals: bullshit.

One lifelong Grit, Jim Curran, wrote this on Facebook. He has given me approval to quote it:

“I am voting Liberal anyway. What Kathleen did to her candidates yesterday was pretty much the shittiest thing I’ve ever seen a leader do to her own, hardworking, selfless, dedicated candidates who have put their lives and families on hold for the party they believe in. It was absolutely selfish and totally disgusting IMHO. I will continue to support my local Liberal candidate as the alternative is not acceptable to me. I’m for a party dedicated to a living wage for its citizens, free pharma for the young, dedication to making sure our kids get to go to college and dedication to building and expanding hospitals for our growing and aging population. In [my riding] I will be voting for [his candidate], LIBERAL.”

I feel the same way. I am disgusted by what Wynne and her $70,000-a-month “strategist” Wizard did. But I am going to enthusiastically vote for my friend Arthur Potts, the Ontario Liberal candidate in our riding, because he richly deserves re-election.

This morning, Kathleen Wynne was yet again on CBC Toronto’s Metro Morning, because she likes preaching to the choir. Matt Galloway, who is a tough interviewer, demanded to know why Wynne didn’t quit the leadership a year ago. Lots of us have been wondering that, although I was pretty much the only one saying so publicly.

Wynne dodged and weaved, but then she finally said she had consulted her “advisors and colleagues,” a year ago, but concluded that she “really believed” she could get re-elected.

Let’s examine that, shall we?

Exactly one year ago, the first slide shows what the Angus Reid Group were saying about Wynne’s ability to get re-elected.

Not too good, eh? Least-popular Premier in Canada.

But maybe she meant to say the year before that – in 2016. So, the next slide shows where she was in May of that year.

A bit better, but not by much. So, what gives? Kathleen Wynne has been very unpopular for a very long time. What persuaded her to “really believe” she could win over the past couple years?

There are two possibilities, here. One, she is delusional, and totally removed from political reality. Having known her for a long time, however, I can tell you this is impossible. She is very, very smart.

The other possibility is one I have been hearing whispers about: Kathleen Wynne was being presented with numbers that were completely and totally wrong. Those bogus numbers persuaded her – and, beyond her, her cabinet and caucus, who never once rose up in revolt – that victory was attainable.

I think you all know where I am going with this.

Kathleen Wynne would have resigned a year ago if she had been presented with reliable, verifiable data. She would have have quit if she knew the truth. But someone didn’t give her the truth.

I wonder who that person is?

#53 Victor V on 06.04.18 at 8:23 pm

#39 The ghost of rofo rises on 06.04.18 at 7:13 pm

Go get him renata!

———-

One does not need to be a Doug Ford supporter to see that the timing of the claim is grotesque and clearly made for ulterior motives.

Like Patrick Brown? – Garth

#54 salted on 06.04.18 at 8:50 pm

#3 MF

I know how much you make.

#55 akashic record on 06.04.18 at 8:52 pm

Like Patrick Brown? – Garth

Quite possibly. Cheaper than creating “Russiagate”.

#56 Leo Trollstoy on 06.04.18 at 8:52 pm

to avoid fake news, listen to gartho

gartho describes the peak in real estate prices last year in 2017!

A year ago assignment sales were the rage, especially with condo units in Toronto, Vancouver, Victoria, Ottawa or Montreal.
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2018/05/25/the-unforgiven-2/

im still correctly calling stable inflation, strong US$, useless gold

youre welcome!

#57 akashic record on 06.04.18 at 8:57 pm

One does not need to be a Doug Ford supporter to see that the timing of the claim is grotesque and clearly made for ulterior motives.

Like Patrick Brown? – Garth

I wonder if is this part of the same game, from different angle? Has this been guy planted here with the same purpose?

#24 Conservative Canadian Millenial
There are 14 to 88 reasons why we should vote for Doug Ford this Thursday.

#58 Shawn Allen on 06.04.18 at 9:00 pm

Are People Spreading “Vicious Truths” about Doug Ford?

#26 dr talc on 06.04.18 at 6:15 pm lamented:

“Type into google ‘doug ford’
you will see Every headline is negative: Every headline!”

**********************************

If it is anything like what happened with Trump, the main stream media (i.e. the professional media) may be out there spreading “vicious truths”. These can be far more damaging than vicious lies.

It’s amazing for a very long time we had boring elections in Canada. But now we have had a string of exciting elections often with unexpected winners. (NDP in Alberta!, Trudeau majority). It makes for a fun night watching the returns come in. But some might argue that the the hangover after those celebration parties was pretty bad.

#59 Smoking Man on 06.04.18 at 9:07 pm

Boils down to this. If you’re a govt worker, a moister with nothing but bitterness, or a renter. Or a shitty businessman who can only make a living off govt contracts Vote NDP.

If you’re a homeowner, private sector worker or creative entrepeneur go with the conservatives.

#60 SimplyPut7 on 06.04.18 at 9:08 pm

If the Tories take it and Ford makes good on his promise to deregulate, including ending the tax on foreign capital, the bottom of the current cycle might be in the rear view.

—————————————-

Rates are still going up, if what you say about HELOCs going to 6% is true, there are not enough foreign buyers and local speculators to bailout all of the novice flippers and speculators who hoarded real estate and need prices to go back to 2017 levels to break-even.

The rate hikes, B20, OFSI changes to syndicated mortgages coming up in July and CRA are doing more damage than a one-time speculation tax that paid for itself if home prices continued to increase year-over-year by double digits like they have in past years.

#61 Camille on 06.04.18 at 9:10 pm

Hi. Garth is a talented writer. I feel like I’m reading the original “Seven Types Of Ambiguity” by Empson. Real spy stuff today.

#62 akashic record on 06.04.18 at 9:12 pm

#55 Shawn Allen

Are People Spreading “Vicious Truths” about Doug Ford?

Smells more and more like the standard Commie playbook after WW2.

#63 Tony on 06.04.18 at 9:19 pm

I only look at inventory in the GTA and inventory has moved sharply higher month over month. Meaning homes prices likely will fall. I have no idea where you get your statistics. This guy on youtube confirms exactly what I said here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfGVTjluQw0

#64 Yorkville Renter on 06.04.18 at 9:27 pm

#50 – I wonder who that person is

Genuinely have no idea who you’re talking about… but yes, Wynne is awful

#65 Tony on 06.04.18 at 9:34 pm

Re: #21 Kilt on 06.04.18 at 6:05 pm

Real estate prices in general in Alberta have falling for the last 10 or 11 years. Calgary prices will fall each year for at least the next 6 years.

#66 Linda on 06.04.18 at 9:36 pm

The usual thing to do in situations like the upcoming Ontario election is ‘wait & see’. However, given the way the NDP has attacked property owners in BC via taxation to appease the vocal unpropertied voters & the published for public perusal platform of the NDP in Ontario’s upcoming election property owner panic is not an unreasonable response.

Thus far those who only own one property which they occupy full time may be safe from the more onerous of the new tax laws. Anyone who does own rental property however could be excused for feeling targeted. If these already enacted or proposed new laws were based on sex, race or religion there would be one honking big lawsuit citing discrimination.

I can understand government trying to provide affordable housing to the wider electorate. What I disagree with is the government offloading the responsibility & costs of providing such housing onto those who happen to own rental property. Even worse, the expectation that the property owner provide these services at a personal financial loss by enacting rent ‘controls’ that would potentially prevent the property owner from even covering their base costs. I say potentially as there must be landlords whose costs would still be covered even with rent controls in place. Even so, if I were one of those landlords I’d be doing my best to offload that millstone before I sank.

#67 PBrasseur on 06.04.18 at 9:37 pm

We’ve seen the bottom? That’s a joke right?

It will take years to see the bottom and more years for this country to recover from the miseries it’s excesses have caused.

The only things worth buying in Canada are fast food chains and low cost retail… Just stay away from anything else.

#68 akashic record on 06.04.18 at 9:37 pm

Internet was supposed to bring democracy, freedom. It turned out to be a carefully designed honeypot.

CIA provided seed founding to set up Google, the daddy of Internet, DARPA had a secret project LifeLog, which was terminated the same day when FaceBook was founded.

DARPA’s ex-boss later worked both at “what they think” Google and “who they are” Facebook.

One too many co-incidences.

Google it, if you still dare.

While you were yapping your heart and brain out for free, from the convenience of your couch, you were put under the microscope, with the invisible watchers collecting all the un-deletable information about you, as if you were a lab animal.

The little remedy that remains for you is to start talking all kinds of incoherent, they and night, until the algos grant you a harmless fool jail-free card. You can also play the drunk alien role to make your predictions sound like a fiction.

#69 akashic record on 06.04.18 at 9:42 pm

Poor Garth must have a catch-22 moment.

Is his blog used as a tool to wipe out from politics D Ford and sabotage a Tory victory or not?

#70 Tony on 06.04.18 at 9:49 pm

We are toasted!
Wish we had a Prime Minister like Mr. Trump.
Political correctness is killing poor Canada.
Sorry to say this but run with your money while you can.
Welcome to Kanazuela!

#71 viorelli on 06.04.18 at 10:10 pm

It is getting harder and harder to survive in Vancouver for many people including the well paid professionals. My son’s friend’s brother is a family practice MD in New Westminster, BC. One would think that clearing $8-9000 per month would afford one a very comfortable life, but unfortunately this is no longer the case. Here is his spreadsheet of monthly expenses:
1. Mortgage on a new 3BR townhome, $ 3.280
2. Strata fees, $ 350
3. Student loan repayment $ 1800 – 2000
4. Full time child day care (private), $ 1700
5. New Honda Civic monthly payment, insurance, gas, $ 750
6. Two phone plans, $ 160
7. Grocery bills monthly $ 1000 – 1300
8. Insurance, home, life, etc. $ 250
9. Clothing, restaurant, leisure, travel (once annually), $ 400 – 500
10. Oldest child’s sports and tutoring: $ 700

Total: $ 10.890, thus he is – $ 1890 (short monthly), his wife clears roughly $ 2000 – 2500 as a part time dental hygienist, thus there is approximate savings of maybe $ 600 – 700 per month. Those are two well paid professionals in LM, I don’t even know how the rest of the regular folks doing it here. It is a great mystery.

#72 Millennial Realist on 06.04.18 at 10:39 pm

What a deplorable piece of sh&te the entire Ford family is.

Look yourselves in the mirror, pathetic conservatards (sadly, mostly boomers…..sigh) and ask yourselves how low you will truly go.

And now the widow of Rob Ford is leaking the truth of what an incompetent leader and manager Doug is, whose only success in life was choosing somewhat successful parents. Truly pathetic and appalling.

Rob Ford was a criminal, a drug user, a wife beater (multiple 911 calls record this) a liar, and a racist moron. He accomplished nothing of merit at Toronto city hall.

Doug is a proven drug dealer, liar, half-wit failed BS artist who has no clue about running anything, business or government.

Two dumb, uneducated, out of control and morbidly obese drug-addled thugs, and this is “Ford Nation”?

Good grief!

PC supporters…….the bell is tolling for thee.

Are you really complete trash yourselves?

If so welcome to history’s dustbin…….a new generation is taking over soon, even faster than I had thought!

#73 OttawaMike on 06.04.18 at 10:51 pm

It seems that Doug Ford has found $16.5 million in efficiencies for Rob’s wife and kids.

#74 akashic record on 06.04.18 at 10:51 pm

Before you stress out about the election

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3J-cYxxHQGQ

#75 Lost...but not leased on 06.04.18 at 10:52 pm

NDP fans are so clueless…

B.C. NDP 2.0(aka 4 NDP premiers between 1991 and 2001) had golden opportunity FOR TEN FRIKKIN YEARS to “fix” things such as the housing issue….all they are remembered for is Fast Ferries, photo radar etc……..their term in office paralleled the Federal Liberals.

NDP always has been and always will be an amalgam of professional politicians (and often double dipping civil servants) who simply wait for citizens to tire of the current gov’ts and then act like kids in legislative candy house imposing whackjob legislation based on whims that has negative consequences far into the future.

Morons…..

#76 waiting on the westcoast on 06.04.18 at 10:54 pm

For you Victoria fans out there. DFH sales declined in May (not just lower than last year but actually went lower than April) while listings continued to grow.

https://househuntvictoria.ca/2018/05/31/may-market-wrapup/

Inventory levels increasing is what you need to see to get price declines and May is an example of how that could happen.

#77 Tony on 06.04.18 at 11:07 pm

Re: #57 SimplyPut7 on 06.04.18 at 9:08 pm

There’s also a unilateral tax agreement between Canada and China which comes in affect this September. The foreigners who evaded paying taxes on property sales in Canada will be paying up big time thanks to this new agreement.

#78 fishman on 06.04.18 at 11:09 pm

Political Correctness isn’t killing Canada; its killing the Liberal Party & “lil potato” for adopting its tenants as decision making precepts. Notice his present use of the 4th plague of PC with the Donald: Victim Status. That should work fine with such a sensitive President.
And the 3rd plaque; Multiculturalism. Its fascinating watching the tribes forming up; like the old days of the Reformers & Separatists.
Now you gotta go all in & adopt the 2nd plaque: Totalitarian Secularism. By, By any religious voters.
Lastly, to square the square,” lil potato’s drowning voice breathlessly supporting the 1st plaque; Moral Relativism. He & his heirs & his Liberal Party will subsequently be relegated to kooksville.

#79 waiting on the westcoast on 06.04.18 at 11:16 pm

56 Smoking Man on 06.04.18 at 9:07 pm says…”Boils down to this. If you’re a govt worker, a moister with nothing but bitterness, or a renter. Or a shitty businessman who can only make a living off govt contracts Vote NDP.
If you’re a homeowner, private sector worker or creative entrepeneur go with the conservatives.”

What if your a renter and an entrepreneur (non-shitty, I think?)… ;-)

#80 Ronaldo on 06.04.18 at 11:20 pm

#5 Leah

”So do you think its a good time to make a lowball offer on a place in the okanagan?”

—————————————————————–
No need to rush Leah. Wait til September/October and you will see prices dropping a whole lot more. Here is a link to homes for sale in Vernon. 522 listings. One development I am watching of affordable homes, the realtor that sold my place two years ago has only sold 1 home of 17 listings in that development since beginning of year and the price of that home was below $350000. Prices will need to come down a whole lot more.

https://www.point2homes.com/CA/Real-Estate-Listings/BC/Vernon.html?page=11

#81 Lost...but not leased on 06.04.18 at 11:20 pm

Whinny renters…

Landlords pay property taxes that fund schools hospitals, sewer, parks police, firemen etc…any suggestions as to who else should shoulder the tax burden ?

Re: Capital gains…the landlord, via interest payments, will have paid 3X’s or more the initial purchase price before having clear title. Gov’t must be taking this into account… versus the option of investing elsewhere.

#82 Bruce on 06.04.18 at 11:23 pm

I listen to Ross Kay…. he says the exact opposite Garth. Ontario heading down the tubes thanks to real estate price drops. It’s unavoidable regardless who gets into power.

#83 Tony on 06.04.18 at 11:45 pm

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#84 Cheesetoast on 06.04.18 at 11:54 pm

And so it starts….the circus is beginning already and he isn’t even elected yet! Doug Ford being sued by Rob Ford’s widow for siphoning off/stealing from his late brother’s estate. Well Garth, maybe the Dippers aren’t so bad.

#85 Fake News Again on 06.04.18 at 11:58 pm

Vancouver’s empty house tax, meanwhile, has done zip to change the vacancy rate and the province has been successful in fueling a class war between the Wealthy and the Wrest.

____

Maybe if the BC Govt would grow a pair and start arresting all the foreign money laundering criminals, RE agents and bankers helping them…..you would see a difference in vacancies. The Govt welcoming in refugees by the cruise ship full is not helping either.

#86 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.05.18 at 12:08 am

Tried to watch the Stanley Cup finals,
But all I could see was Ontario PC commercials.
They must be desperate
Go, Dippers, Go!

#87 Nik on 06.05.18 at 12:10 am

#68 Viorelli

Not surprising! It just sucks to live in (Metro) Vancouver as a renter, especially with a young/growing family. Vacancy is so low that rentals can command absurd pricing (25% more than last year!!) and they still end up being taken by someone desperate.
this is a worldwide phenomenon but unfortunately Vancouver is the only city where wages are not related to the housing prices in any way. high real estate costs and our dropping currency value creeps into every part of our lives including food, daycare, groceries etc.
I cannot imagine how the less fortunate are managing to survive in this city!
NDP is absolutely right to increase the cost of housing to certain strategically targeted segments. The idea is to increase the “cost” of holding property as a speculation cost. Its pathetic to see Garth oppose these measures without offering up any other meaningful solution. Fact is he doesn’t give a damn about affordability as most of his clients (and party loyalists) are already (wealthy) home owners !!

#88 Stan Brooks on 06.05.18 at 12:11 am


#68 viorelli on 06.04.18 at 10:10 pm
It is getting harder and harder to survive in Vancouver for many people including the well paid professionals. My son’s friend’s brother is a family practice MD in New Westminster, BC. One would think that clearing $8-9000 per month would afford one a very comfortable life, but unfortunately this is no longer the case. Here is his spreadsheet of monthly expenses:
1. Mortgage on a new 3BR townhome, $ 3.280
2. Strata fees, $ 350
3. Student loan repayment $ 1800 – 2000
4. Full time child day care (private), $ 1700
5. New Honda Civic monthly payment, insurance, gas, $ 750
6. Two phone plans, $ 160
7. Grocery bills monthly $ 1000 – 1300
8. Insurance, home, life, etc. $ 250
9. Clothing, restaurant, leisure, travel (once annually), $ 400 – 500
10. Oldest child’s sports and tutoring: $ 700

Total: $ 10.890, thus he is – $ 1890 (short monthly), his wife clears roughly $ 2000 – 2500 as a part time dental hygienist, thus there is approximate savings of maybe $ 600 – 700 per month. Those are two well paid professionals in LM, I don’t even know how the rest of the regular folks doing it here. It is a great mystery.

He is paying debts – mortgage and student while he is supposed to pay interest only on both. So there is some room for ‘improvement’. Plus they are saving (the horror) that meager $ 600 a month while they are are supposed to go deeper in debt so BoC’s friends at the banks can make some bucks.

No to worry, BoC will keep conveniently the interest rates (1.25) significantly below inflation (7-8 %) for quite some time in the future so he is actually ‘doing quite well’ if you ask BoC and the banks.

I give your friend 2-3 years.

And hey, let’s not forget, a townhouse is a ‘luxury’ item for an MD and his family.

#89 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.05.18 at 12:19 am

It is getting harder and harder to survive in Vancouver for many people including the well paid professionals. My son’s friend’s brother is a family practice MD in New Westminster, BC. One would think that clearing $8-9000 per month would afford one a very comfortable life, but unfortunately this is no longer the case. Here is his spreadsheet of monthly expenses:
1. Mortgage on a new 3BR townhome, $ 3.280
2. Strata fees, $ 350
3. Student loan repayment $ 1800 – 2000
4. Full time child day care (private), $ 1700
5. New Honda Civic monthly payment, insurance, gas, $ 750
6. Two phone plans, $ 160
7. Grocery bills monthly $ 1000 – 1300
8. Insurance, home, life, etc. $ 250
9. Clothing, restaurant, leisure, travel (once annually), $ 400 – 500
10. Oldest child’s sports and tutoring: $ 700

Total: $ 10.890, thus he is – $ 1890 (short monthly), his wife clears roughly $ 2000 – 2500 as a part time dental hygienist, thus there is approximate savings of maybe $ 600 – 700 per month. Those are two well paid professionals in LM, I don’t even know how the rest of the regular folks doing it here. It is a great mystery.
————
You forgot to factor in about 40% in income taxes.
They might as well declare bancruptcy.

#90 Stan Brooks on 06.05.18 at 12:25 am

#68 viorelli on 06.04.18 at 10:10 pm

Having kids is also a luxury, the MD and the dental hygienist are supposed to work without reproducing (what for, their kids will not find work anyway) reproduction here, at the best place on earth, is a privilege reserved for some (the owners of the joint).

The rest are supposed to be debt slaves/serfs who work until they die – no retirement, remember, there is no room for that in the doctor’s budget and if there is Mr. more-tax-now will ensure they are not stealing from the society and not paying their fair share (that french villa requires maintenance)

I would say the prices should be 3 times higher so the the doctor and his wife live in 450 sqft condo, have no kids, with no retirement, going moderately further in debt to the tune of 10-15 % of their income additionally per year. Premium worth paying for the privilege to live here, don’t you think?

If they don’t like it, let them leave, but be careful not to let the door hit them on their way out.

And if they decide to stay and sacrifice, fight for the privilege to live here, don’t forget it has an expiration date (no pension or retirement, remember) so don’t forget that tasty pesticides meal, antibiotic and growth hormones rich meat or GMO food at the closest retail store.

Not to worry, if they get sick earlier, our leading cancer research facilities will help expedite the dispatch with their excellent palliative care facilities.

#91 Newcomer on 06.05.18 at 12:27 am

It would be cruel of me to wish Doug Ford on Ontario for research purposes. But if we get the right in on the right coast and the left in on the left cost, we can see where major drops happen. Garth argues that GreenDP policies are not effective in lowering prices. I’m not so sure. Let’s see who gets to half-off first.

#92 Midnights on 06.05.18 at 12:29 am

Great video, thanks for sharing.

Figus Makum on 06.04.18 at 5:17 pm
The Truth About Ontario’s Debt Crisis

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tax7H6O_Yw4&feature=youtu.be

The debt trend is NOT your friend.
Some takeaways:
Ontario’s debt doubled in last 10 years;
Debt servicing is 4th largest cost after health care,
education and social services;
40% of Ontario’s $312 billion debt due during next

#93 pay your taxes on 06.05.18 at 12:53 am

Just had a conversation with a fine fellow who had the cold shock of reality wash over him. He made an offer on another place subject to sale of his current abode. No offers on current abode so the agent suggested a price reduction to attract offers. Rage and entitlement ensued. I get the impression that the agent was dealt with very harshly. Some folk don’t like the smell of that coffee known as reality. The house was bought for 20 percent of the current asking price but this chap wants “every penny that is due”. I had no idea he was that kind of person.

#94 SoggyShorts on 06.05.18 at 12:58 am

#68 viorelli on 06.04.18 at 10:10 pm
4. Full time child day care (private), $ 1700
, his wife clears roughly $ 2000 – 2500 as a part time dental hygienist,

***********************
If the wife is working part time, why is the child care full time?

#95 Tony on 06.05.18 at 1:13 am

At the 2:32 mark
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gtTTik2t4tA

Canada and China to share tax information starting in September.

#96 Exodus 2020 on 06.05.18 at 1:19 am

Hi Garth,

I think increased property taxes are fair given that much of the perceived value of real estate is from the surrounding amenities, parks and schools paid for and probably underfunded by property taxes.

Can you do a comparison of property tax rates between Canada and the USA? I hear their rates are actually much higher, and no capital gains exemptions, but tax deductible mortgage interest. Sounds fair to me!

#97 Fortune500 on 06.05.18 at 1:43 am

Look, anyone under 40 with a family, or hopes of having a home some day, I would strongly advise you to leave the GTA and Vancouver. In fact, look out of country completely.

If Garth’s recent change of view is true, and this is the ‘new normal’ in Canada, then we have truly lost our way. If incomes are never going to keep up with these extreme prices, and prices are never again going to reach reasonable affordability levels, then consider finding locations in the world where that is not the case.

Yes, Canada has some good points, but honestly, don’t settle for a life of being a debt slave because some Boomer tells you to. That isn’t how they got to where they are, so I would take their advice with a grain of salt.

So you weren’t old enough to buy in before the apparently irreversible boom. Or you didn’t have wealthy parents or a big enough down payment to get in before the ‘new normal’ occurred. MOVE. Trust me, there is life beyond House Worship.

#98 Nonplused on 06.05.18 at 2:00 am

I see there are a few comments on the “empty bedroom” thing, so I thought up an analogy.

So my daughter just bought a sub-compact (all she could afford) and it in theory can seat 5 (although I think 4 is a safer bet). But most of the time it’s going to be seating 1 (her). Should she pay a tax on the empty seats???? Should she be forced to carry vagabonds around because she has room?

We have car pool lanes and that’s great for people who can put the right number of people in the car to go in the bus lane, but should people who can’t have to pay an extra tax? It’s a silly idea.

Why do cars have 5 to sometimes 7 seats when only one gets used most of the time? That’s just how you have to build cars, because some of the people require the extra seats some of the time. Bedrooms are no different.

If the housing industry went to building all 2 bedroom housing that would have about the same affect as the automobile industry going to all 2-seater sports-cars. We’d need a lot more of them, and a lot more drivers too.

#99 Myra Andrews on 06.05.18 at 2:43 am

Greater Vancouver Stats from realtor Paul Boenisch

June 2 New 376 Sold 117 TI: 11,942

June 1 New 224 Sold 105 TI: 11,817
May 31 New 208 Sold 109 TI: 11,975
May 30 New 286 Sold 113 TI: 11,964
May 29 New 303 Sold 158 TI: 11,882
May 28 no post from Paul

May 25 New 210 Sold 123 TI: 11,697
May 24 New 231 Sold 128 TI: 11,676
May 23 New 328 Sold 144 TI: 11,613
May 22 New 477 Sold 143 TI: 11,496

May 18 New 226 Sold 119 TI 11,208
May 17 New 191 Sold 110 TI 11,161
May 16 New 235 Sold 147 TI 11,133
May 15 New 315 Sold 178 TI 11,127
May 14 New 302 Sold 124 TI 11,052

May 11 New 183 Sold 132 TI 10,935
May 10 New 229 Sold 126 TI 10,957
May 9 New 309 Sold 172 TI 10,914
May 8 New 318 Sold 117 TI 10,835
May 7 New 389 Sold 131 TI 10,697

May 4 New 191 Sold 110 TI 10,540
May 3 New 213 Sold 103 TI 10,503
May 2 New 268 Sold 146 TI 10,481
May 1 New 363 Sold 134 TI 10,420
Apr 30 New 375 Sold 163 TI 10,459

April 16-27 New 2453 Sold 1224 TI 10,347
April 3-13 New 2111 Sold 916 TI 9,727

Mar 19-29 New 1834 Sold 1072 TI 9,032
Mar 5-16 New 2248 Sold 1224 TI 8,743

The inventory at the end of February was 8,211

#100 Lolo on 06.05.18 at 2:46 am

#68 viorelli
It isn’t that hard…don’t spend what you can’t afford. We live in Vancouver, but find ways to be frugal. I didn’t want to be stretched too thin, so opted to rent instead of buy. You don’t say how many kids he has. We have 2, at one time paying over $2300 in daycare costs at a daycare centre for a toddler and pre-schooler. Now we pay afterschool care costs and a preshooler costs for about just under $1200 a month; the difference goes into investment accounts, not new spending. I also have a Honda Civic. But it’s 20 years old and paid cash when i saved up and bought it out of university (We don’t use it much but it still runs great, and less than 130k on it) Granted, my husband has a nicer car, but we bought it used. I think my husband’s phone plan is $45, I have an old phone and i just use pre-paid plans. The grocery bill seems like there’s room to cut and $8400/yr on one kid’s activities are a luxury if they can’t afford it. I think they just need to prioritize saving over consumption a little better.

#101 James Koik on 06.05.18 at 3:17 am

” If the NDP wins on Thursday (which appears to be statistically impossible) ”

I recall some time ago all analytics cried that Trump’s win was also “statistically impossible” :-)

On the good side, for the sake of pure fairness, let NDP a chance to make as many mistakes as libs/cons already did.

#102 Howard on 06.05.18 at 4:05 am

#40 Penny Henny on 06.04.18 at 7:16 pm

#19 Howard on 06.04.18 at 5:57 pm
Here’s hoping for a minority government and a Liberal seat tally of precisely zero. I never want to see Orville’s face or hear her voice ever again.

////////////////

Just wondering how there might be possible to have a minority government and the Libs winning zero seats?
You think the green party is going to win a seat?

——————————————

Damn, brain fart on my part. My utter hatred of the Ontario Liberals seemed to have clouded my thoughts. You’re right of course. The Liberals would need to win at least a few seats in order to plunge the legislature into a minority situation. Likely Toronto-St. Paul’s and Toronto-Centre, where there are a lot of old-money elites as well as public sector workers. Hopefully Orville’s own seat of Don Valley West is lost and she disappears forever.

And yes, it actually does look like the Greens will win Guelph. That could of course create a minority situation without any Liberal if the NDP and PC votes are distributed just perfectly.

#103 Howard on 06.05.18 at 4:23 am

Toronto house with toilet in living room selling for almost a million

https://www.blogto.com/real-estate-toronto/2018/06/toronto-house-toilet-living-room-sale-900k/

#104 Under the radar on 06.05.18 at 5:30 am

Ford family structure shows pitiful planning . Rob’s shares should have been disposed of before he died and funds held by corporate trustee to pay widow and children income . No good reason to keep widow tethered to two brother in laws who cannot spell integrity. No matter which party wins the election , Ontario is in deep trouble.

#105 TurnerNation on 06.05.18 at 7:54 am

How to rig an election.

Have the party incumbent with lowest support drop out of race at last minute.
The other party have them fail to release an election platform till last minute then see its leader embroiled in a personal lawsuit.

Slam dunk for #3. Magic performed while we were distracted.

Et tu, Russia? (Not needed)

#106 Howard on 06.05.18 at 7:56 am

#69 Millennial Realist on 06.04.18 at 10:39 pm

Not a fan of the Fords, but you self-described progressives have no leg to stand on after you selected the lowest-IQ PM in Canadian history to lead the country.

As for Rob Ford’s troubled tenure, it was still leagues better than the union-kissing marxist regime of the previous mayor David Miller.

And there is precisely zero evidence that any of the Fords are “racist”.

#107 dharma bum on 06.05.18 at 7:59 am

Unfortunately, the price drop we’ve seen in GTA housing over the past year, whether 10%, 15%, 20%, 30%, or whatever it actually is, is completely irrelevant to the average income earner.

The fact remains that the cost of homes in the GTA (and Vancouver area) is completely out of sync with the incomes of the population. Even with another 25% price drop (which ain’t gonna happen, by the way), regular folk (i.e., 99%) cannot really afford a GTA home.

The affordability illusion caused by artificially low rates gave the masses a glimpse of home “ownership”, but as we now see, that will be coming to an end as mortgage rates creep higher, and many lose their homes at renewal time.

The bottom line is, that if average income earners didn’t get into the housing market many years ago when the cost of homes was more in line with what they could reasonably afford (carrying costs), they are now screwed.

Those lucky ones that happened to buy houses before the costs artificially blew up because of errant government policies in the mid 2000’s, simply have the good fortune of being grandfathered into the GTA housing market.

Anyone that missed their chance at buying a GTA house many years ago, for whatever reason, is toast as far as ever really “owning” a home that falls into a price range that will consume a manageable proportion of their disposable income, and not bleed them dry.

As in any major housing market (New York City, San Francisco, Paris, London, Geneva, Hong Kong, Sydney, etc.), if you’re not already in, the only way you’re getting in (EVER) is if you already own a house that is worth a lot of money, or, you happened to already have a ton of cash or other saleable assets.

If you don’t already have a lot of money, you are out of luck.

That’s just the way it is. Money rules.

No government policies, property taxes, punitive measures on rich people, or ANYTHING will change that.

#108 Conn Smythe on 06.05.18 at 8:08 am

For Proof?

I was thinking about your comment on our subdivisions being in a different empty form than the built subdivisions of the US housing crash. Your point was that developers like yourself are not building and hence our subdivisions are empty in a prebuilt state rather than the built state of the US housing crash. So my question for you then is, how are the empty unbuilt subdivisions not contributing to a lack of supply? It is only exacerbating the supply problem. The comparison to the US is not valid then. Whereas in the US the homes were built and hence added to the oversupply, here by not being built they are making the supply issue worse…

#109 Dan on 06.05.18 at 8:09 am

This will backfire and probably help Ford. Maybe it was all planned by Rob from the beginning.
Next Doug will give his life to get Randy elected Prime minister.

#110 Dissident on 06.05.18 at 8:17 am

And here we have Rob Ford’s widow suing Doug Ford for the millions he is allegedly withholding from her and the kids. And allegations that he is mis-managing Deco Labels and running it into the ground, thus “destroying its value” whilst still siphoning a handsome “salary”. Not hard to imagine.

If this is how he behaves in his personal life, just wait till he does this to the province in the name of fame and popularity. Don’t vote for this man-baby. Why do you want a Trump-in-diapers running the province.

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2018/06/04/rob-fords-widow-sues-doug-ford-alleging-he-has-deprived-them-of-millions.html

#111 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.05.18 at 8:34 am

@#68 Viorelli

A couple of options.
Sell the 3 bdrm condo and the new car. Rent and buy a used vehicle. Probably cut the monthly payments for those in half.
OR
Sell everything and move out of the Lower Brainland to a small city oo town elsewhere in BC, Canada or the US.
Housing costs will be considerably cheaper, the doctor will still recieve the same pay or more, car insurance, etc, should be cheaper and no insane commutes …. With the added bonus …. great place to raise a family.

#112 Renter's Revenge! on 06.05.18 at 8:46 am

I’ve noticed that ever since Doug and Ryan started posting on Saturdays, Garth has cut back on the financial stuff and focused his posts more and more on his one true passion – politics.

Which to me is like giving up eating a healthy diet so that you can focus on drinking and smoking.

Politics = economics = financial consequences. Follow the puck. – Garth

#113 Saint Herb on 06.05.18 at 9:07 am

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/poloz-says-mother-nature-driving-vancouver-toronto-housing-1.1087254

Seems Canada is going to have the first huge housing bubble that does NOT crash or revert to the mean.

“A year-and-a-half ago we had the changes in the Vancouver market and there was an initial effect and then a bounce back, and that just shows you that Mother Nature is still there – that the fundamentals for housing remain quite strong,” Poloz said in an interview with BNN Bloomberg late Friday in Whistler, B.C.

“And I think the same thing is there in Toronto – that’s what it looks like. There’s very, very strong fundamentals.”

“This was never about controlling prices or the housing market,” Poloz said about regulatory changes. “It was about improving the quality of indebtedness to make it more sustainable. And by all accounts, that’s looking like it’s moving in the right direction.”

I should get off the save and rent band wagon waiting for a meaningful price correction in real estate and jump on the pile on the debt wagon.

Poloz is going to make sure everyone can handle there huge debts. So everyone gets what they want when they want it.

#114 Game Over on 06.05.18 at 9:07 am

If we are truly on the precipice of another real estate cycle, what happened to the last two stages for the last cycle? There hasn’t been any over supply and there is certainly no recession. Even 10% lower prices from a high that saw a 30% increase the year before puts you ahead by a significant amount.

There is a consistent warning not just from this blog, but other media outlets of over indebtedness, rising interest rates, housing cycles and the risk of a one asset strategy, yet that is exactly what has paid off the last ten years. And from the sounds of it, it will continue to pay off in to the next cycle. It seems like people have an endless supply of money that is unaffected by interest rates, and there is another wave of millenial demand that is forecast to propel this market higher. Is telling the moisters to save, invest and then buy dirt a losing strategy in the near term and possibly the long term?
If the PCs win, would it be smarter just to go all out on a house? Would you be able to grow enough money to keep up or will leverage and the growth from that leverage continue to outperform? Not being critical, I am just confused about some of the statements and predictions I read.

#115 PeterfromCalgary on 06.05.18 at 9:18 am

“Empty Bedroom” well doesn’t that foosball table mean it is not empty?

#116 Hot Karl on 06.05.18 at 9:46 am

#104 dharma bum

This guy (or girl) nailed it. The type of unaffordability we are seeing in Toronto has been the norm in other cities around the world for some time, Toronto is just getting its moment now. Nothing is going to change it.

The simple reality is that people who can’t afford it have to move. This has been happening in San Francisco, NY, etc.. In fact right now there is a mass middle class migration leaving California and going to places like Nevada and Arizona.

The market will not crash because the middle class can’t afford it, it’s going to be for the wealthy and if you refuse debt servitude then it’s Nova Scotia for you … and maybe that’s not so bad.

#117 How can anyone vote PC? on 06.05.18 at 10:03 am

Ford is a silver spoon moron. He ran his dads company to the ground. He is a proven liar and now word is he has stolen money from a widower. Both Liberals and Conservatives have been proven disastrous for Ontario with Conservatives to be proven the worst. Mike Harris did so much damage to Ontario that the Liberals were able to keep winning since everyone could remember the disaster called Mike Harris. Leasing thr 407 for pennies on the dollar for 99 years. Deregulating hydro from not for profit to for profit which costs us $$$$$$ to this day. All the CONs can scream is the name Bob rae who is now a Liberal. Oh no Bob rae which has cost me nothing. Mike Harris continues to costs the people money even to this day and for another 80 years on just the 407 alone. Hydro is another cost thanks to him. Ford will sell out assets for pennies on the dollar just like Mike Harris.

Scaremonger much? – Garth

#118 IHCTD9 on 06.05.18 at 10:12 am

#113 Hot Karl on 06.05.18 at 9:46 am

The market will not crash because the middle class can’t afford it, it’s going to be for the wealthy and if you refuse debt servitude then it’s Nova Scotia for you … and maybe that’s not so bad.
______

Don’t need to go that far East. 2 hrs away from the GTA is plenty.

#119 Dissident on 06.05.18 at 10:24 am

#70 OttawaMike on 06.04.18 at 10:51 pm
It seems that Doug Ford has found $16.5 million in efficiencies for Rob’s wife and kids.

– – – – – – – – – – –

Pwnd!!! :D

#120 Renter's Revenge! on 06.05.18 at 10:32 am

“Politics = economics = financial consequences. Follow the puck.” – Garth

In theory. It seems to me, though, that empires rise and fall in spite of government action, not because of it.

I tend to agree more with dharma bum’s thinking:

#104 dharma bum on 06.05.18 at 7:59 am

“As in any major housing market (New York City, San Francisco, Paris, London, Geneva, Hong Kong, Sydney, etc.), if you’re not already in, the only way you’re getting in (EVER) is if you already own a house that is worth a lot of money, or, you happened to already have a ton of cash or other saleable assets.

If you don’t already have a lot of money, you are out of luck.

That’s just the way it is. Money rules.

No government policies, property taxes, punitive measures on rich people, or ANYTHING will change that.”

#121 Game Over on 06.05.18 at 10:35 am

Trump thought he had a bad deal with NAFTA.. He should have seen the 407 deal. Half empty highway that costs a car payment to use. Having said that, all transport trucks passing through should be diverted up there to by pass the city and the province or TO should be taking a cut to pay for transit infrastructure.

#122 IHCTD9 on 06.05.18 at 10:38 am

Was talking with a Gen X business owner the other day – he employs about 50. He’s voted Liberal since the 90’s, but he will be voting for Ford this week.

Why?

Because business is getting very difficult. Between the City, Province, Feds, MOL, WSIB, MOE, OPG, Hydro One, wages, the economy, higher taxes, insurance, and regulation – it’s got to the point where his Political ideologies are taking a back seat to his fear of being able to make a living.

This is why the NDP is the answer for Ontario’s eventual return to sanity. Imagine how much fear and economic destruction the NDP would exact over a 4 year majority. Focus on things that are actually important for society would be regained – quickly.

4 years of an NDP majority would have millions of Ontarians snapping back into reality as they face job loss, oppressive economic policy, and downright immoral revenue generation tactics. A few houses might even end up on the line…

The ex-Liberal voting business owner I mentioned is proof it’ll work. All you need to do is bring the fear, and the pain – by the truckload. A perfect job for the NDP.

#123 Hot Karl on 06.05.18 at 10:40 am

#115 IHCTD9

“Don’t need to go that far East. 2 hrs away from the GTA is plenty.”

Good point. There are so many great towns and cities to live in across the country that are very affordable.

The problem is finding steady employment, which is not impossible by any means in those other areas. The other issue is a lot of people have their friends and families in the GTA and perhaps solid employment with DB pensions. Those people have to either bite the bullet with GTA housing or start over somewhere else which is easier said than done.

#124 Stan Brooks on 06.05.18 at 10:43 am

#110 Saint Herb on 06.05.18 at 9:07 am

Poloz is just the village idiot with the finger in the dyke as David Rosenberg famously said.

He can not control the borrowing/long term mortgage costs, it follows US 10 years treasuries but he surely is stupid enough to destroy the Canadian dollar as he influences interest rates on deposits.

So everyone will get whatever they deserve, but if somebody thinks that current house valuations will help with pensions indexed with CPI (1-2 %) with real inflation 8-10, good luck.

As I said countless times one must be worse than complete idiot to have any trust in the Poloz peso.

So far diversification out of Canada has worked marvelously well for me, and I am experiencing the sheer joy of not having to pay taxes to such idiots far inferior intellectually to any average Canadian.

But hey, we deserve them.
So suck it up and get ready fro higher taxes.

Cheers.

#125 PastThePeak on 06.05.18 at 11:21 am

#115 IHCTD9 on 06.05.18 at 10:12 am
#113 Hot Karl on 06.05.18 at 9:46 am

The market will not crash because the middle class can’t afford it, it’s going to be for the wealthy and if you refuse debt servitude then it’s Nova Scotia for you … and maybe that’s not so bad.
______

Don’t need to go that far East. 2 hrs away from the GTA is plenty.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Don’t encourage them! Let them stay in GTA. According to the housing bulls on this comment section, it won’t be long before the average SFD is $3M and a 1-BR condo is $1.5M.

Meanwhile, in the remainder of the country, it will be less (much less) than 50% as much. Why would this happen? Will business pay wages in GTA which are significantly higher than what they would pay in Montreal, Ottawa, Calgary, Edmonton or Halifax? Will people sign themselves up for an even higher debt ratio & service costs for life, just to live in the GTA?

Seems dubious, but who knows…

#126 IHCTD9 on 06.05.18 at 11:34 am

#68 viorelli on 06.04.18 at 10:10 pm

Here is his spreadsheet of monthly expenses:
1. Mortgage on a new 3BR townhome, $ 3.280
2. Strata fees, $ 350
3. Student loan repayment $ 1800 – 2000
4. Full time child day care (private), $ 1700
5. New Honda Civic monthly payment, insurance, gas, $ 750
6. Two phone plans, $ 160
7. Grocery bills monthly $ 1000 – 1300
8. Insurance, home, life, etc. $ 250
9. Clothing, restaurant, leisure, travel (once annually), $ 400 – 500
10. Oldest child’s sports and tutoring: $ 700

Total: $ 10.890, thus he is – $ 1890 (short monthly), his wife clears roughly $ 2000 – 2500 as a part time dental hygienist, thus there is approximate savings of maybe $ 600 – 700 per month. Those are two well paid professionals in LM, I don’t even know how the rest of the regular folks doing it here. It is a great mystery.
____

I’m with Stan. Make a YVR crap shack cost 5.0 Million. Daycare – 5000.00/mo. Strata – 2000.00/mo.

Here is some old math folks in YVR/GTA should learn to understand:

Pain x Resistance = Suffering

In GTA/YVR, that takes the form of: Huge cost of living x doing zip about it = Suffering.

Since Suffering ^10 = rebellion, all we need to do is allow the screws to keep turning until Millionaires can’t even afford to rent. At this point, all normal folks will be happily living elsewhere getting ahead in life, securing their futures, and their kids futures.

People resist change until the pain is essentially unbearable. Look at failing businesses, bad marriages, poor career paths, and destructive governments. People tough it out and deal until something snaps and change begins. The vast majority end up in a much better place after being driven to do something about their miserable condition. The sooner they do so – the better off they’ll be.

IMHO, continuing on as a MD with a paltry 600.00 cash to your name left over every month should be enough to start planning an exit. Seriously, my 16 year old does better than that at a summer job…

#127 Damifino on 06.05.18 at 11:42 am

#117 Renter’s Revenge!

If you don’t already have a lot of money, you are out of luck.
———————————–

And if you were use that ‘lot of money’ to buy residential real estate in the midst of a bubble you are also out of luck and probably out of brains too.

If I had enough cash lying around to buy a house in Vancouver, the very last thing I’d do with it is buy a house in Vancouver.

#128 Penny Henny on 06.05.18 at 11:52 am

Charts. Who needs charts?

http://torontorealestatecharts.com/?utm_source=Newsletter&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=May_2018

#129 Shawn Allen on 06.05.18 at 11:53 am

Lines of Credit With No Payments Required Do Not Exist

A few days ago I stated that home equity lines of credit with no monthly payments of any kind required until the credit limit is reached do not exist.

Garth disputed this and responded to me:

“Give it up. You lose. The common practice of banks is to allow HELOCs to sit without any actual payments being made monthly from a borrower’s bank account into the loan account. The amount of the outstanding debt simply increases until the limit is reached. Then the bank calls and asks for some money. Get a LOC. Try it. – Garth”

*************************************
With respect, I believe that the paper that claimed that some 40% of Canadians were not making interest payments on home equity lines of credit was misleading.

I just spoke to a lending specialist at TD who told me that TD does not offer a home equity (or any other) line of credit with no payments required. The minimum is to pay the interest monthly. Also they have never heard of any competitor offering such home equity lines of credit with no payments required until the credit limit is reached.

I believe what the paper referred to is that people simply draw out more money on the line of credit periodically so that in the net in substance they have paid nothing down on the line of credit over a year and in fact the balance has increased by the amount of the interest or more.

So the point stands certainly that people are heavily in debt and many are in substance not even paying interest. But they do have to make the monthly payments even if it is a bit of a charade as they borrow to make the payments.

If anyone has a no-payments-required loan of any kind from a Big 5 bank in Canada, please share details.

But in form, yes they must pay at least the interest on the line of credit monthly.

You are still incorrect. Nobody needs to go to an ATM and withdraw money on a LOC to then deposit as a LOC payment. Does not happen. The LOC is serviced by the line itself, with automatic bank-initiated transfers. As I said, go and get a line and see for yourself how it functions in the real world. My last entry on this arcane subject. – Garth

#130 IHCTD9 on 06.05.18 at 12:00 pm

#120 Hot Karl on 06.05.18 at 10:40 am
#115 IHCTD9

“Don’t need to go that far East. 2 hrs away from the GTA is plenty.”

Good point. There are so many great towns and cities to live in across the country that are very affordable.

The problem is finding steady employment, which is not impossible by any means in those other areas. The other issue is a lot of people have their friends and families in the GTA and perhaps solid employment with DB pensions. Those people have to either bite the bullet with GTA housing or start over somewhere else which is easier said than done.
_____

Yep, small towns are cheap – and slowly dying an economic and demographic death. Medium towns can still support a generation or two yet though.

At the rate it’s going in Ontario, a young couple will need only a solid supply of minimum wage jobs to comfortably afford a decent home, decent vehicles, and decent savings. I’ve done the math on here many times – a small town couple on minimum wage can easily live better, and save more – than your typical 100-150K/yr, degreed, white collar GTA couple just starting out.

Obviously being a Lawyer sounds a lot better to friends and family than being a burger flipper – but doing the math – ALL OF IT, makes a compelling case for what I’m talking about.

#131 Midnights on 06.05.18 at 12:01 pm

Vancouver home sales figures for May released
https://m.canadianrealestatemagazine.ca/business-news/vancouver-home-sales-figures-for-may-released-243434.aspx

#132 Proof ? on 06.05.18 at 12:13 pm

to # 107 Dissident

So, in your books, Doug Ford is guilty before the case is even heard by a court ?

Under that system – guilty until proven innocent, you had better hope -no really hope – that no one ever accuses you of any wrong doing.

You definitely sound like a the member of a mob – no wonder you support the NDP.

#133 Stan Brooks on 06.05.18 at 12:19 pm

Somewhere in the western crapland:

‘Not something that should happen’: homeless man spends dying hours at Vancouver Tim Hortons

https://ca.yahoo.com/news/apos-not-something-happen-apos-173218025.html

#134 conan on 06.05.18 at 12:23 pm

He’s voted Liberal since the 90’s, but he will be voting for Ford this week.-IHCTD9

Doubt it. Never mess with the widow.

At a minimum, the hounds of CRA have been released. More likely, 25% of the popular support for Ford Nation/Premier Doug, just evaporated as well.

Those votes go to General Zod, or the Liberals.

#135 Proof ? on 06.05.18 at 12:24 pm

to # 105 Conn Smythe

New home sales are down by up to 75 % compared to last year in the GTA.
Ergo, demand is down.
Those ubdivisions are planned years in advance and many are in registration etc., intending to come online.
Ergo, there is already the overcapacity as of right now – AT THESE PRICE POINTS.
That is why Mattamy, for instance, has been dropping its prices substantially. You don’t reduce pricing unless there is oversupply.
This, of course, can change.

#136 Hot Karl on 06.05.18 at 12:29 pm

#122 PastThePeak

I don’t think the GTA in of itself is the allure as it’s mostly just an effect of Toronto’s jump into the world class city light and all the wealth that comes with that.

The wealth gap is widening much faster than anyone has really been able to comprehend. 100K household income is borderline poor and I believe that harsh realization, relative to house prices as one example, is shocking people. A lot of people are in denial.

I would argue that this is very much a class issue, but taxing the wealthy and “successful” has never worked out well in history. One just has to look at communism and the horror it produced.

The exodus of the middle class to the outer burbs and further has just begun. In California it is well underway.

#137 Stan Brooks on 06.05.18 at 12:39 pm


#129 Stan Brooks on 06.05.18 at 12:19 pm
Somewhere in the western crapland:

‘Not something that should happen’: homeless man spends dying hours at Vancouver Tim Hortons

https://ca.yahoo.com/news/apos-not-something-happen-apos-173218025.html

Not that it will disturb Poloz’s appreciation of his own ‘good’ work or his night sleep.

Note: guy dies with cancer homeless due to low pension.

Quiz question # 1: What will you pension be with CPI indexed at 1-2 % while real inflation and cost of living rages at 8 % + and do you think Poloz’s idiotic policies will have anything to do with your future retirement situation?

#138 Newcomer on 06.05.18 at 12:54 pm

#104 dharma bum on 06.05.18 at 7:59 am

The bottom line is, that if average income earners didn’t get into the housing market many years ago when the cost of homes was more in line with what they could reasonably afford (carrying costs), they are now screwed.
—-

The situation you describe is not stable in economic terms.

What will happen when the current lucky owners sell because they have to move or they die? Who will buy their houses?

Separately, where will average income earners live? If they rent, will existing owners have enough income to subsidize the housing costs of non-owners?

One of the core teachings of the Dharma is “anicca,” or “impermanence.” It is one of the basic characteristics of all things, including real estate markets. All situations (such as millions of people living in houses worth ten times what they earn in a year) come into existence as a part of change and will certainly pass out of existence again due to the constant change that is inherent in the market. Meanwhile, the human mind is predisposed to see things as permanent (I will always love her, I will never understand my father, etc.). Recognizing anicca around us is part of “right view” (see the eightfold path) which leads to the end of attachment and hence suffering.

In other words, don’t sweat it, it will change. In the words of Freddie Mercury, nothing lasts forever.

#139 Jen on 06.05.18 at 1:12 pm

http://www.trebhome.com/market_news/release_market_updates/news2018/nr_stop_mltt.htm

York Region wants to a levy a MLTT >.<

#140 Justin P on 06.05.18 at 1:12 pm

#68 viorelli on 06.04.18 at 10:10 pm

“One would think that clearing $8-9000 per month would afford one a very comfortable life”

As a tax accountant with many MD clients, I can assure you they do lead comfortable lives. Allow me to elaborate.

Typical MD situation (simplified):

Gross revenue = $480k ($40k/month OHIP billing – attainable working 5 day/ 37.5 hr weeks

Overhead (rent, salary for receptionist, misc. expenses) $140k

Taxable corporate income = $340k

Corporate income tax at 13.5% in Ontario = $46k

Net income after tax = $294k

Of course this is in the corporation – in order to take cash personally, there are personal tax implications. Your friend needs his $8-9k net per month.

Let’s assume he takes out $10k/month. $120k dividend to be included in MD’s personal income. In Ontario, this dividend generates personal tax of roughly $22.5k. MD is left with net $97,500, or $8,125/month.

End result:

MD is keeping $174k in his corporation ($294k less $120k). This is after-tax cash, and is typically invested/kept in a rainy-day fund, which grows and grows on a tax-deferred basis.

MD is also keeping $8,125/month x 12 = $97,500. His personal cash, to pay living expenses, mortgages, sports for the kids, etc.

Looking at it another way, total billings of $480k result in corporate cash of $174k and personal cash of $97.5k totalling $271,500. Your MD friend is actually “netting” $22,625/month.

So the next time an MD friend is crying the blues, take it with a grain of salt. I can promise you they’re doing fine.

#141 Justin P on 06.05.18 at 1:18 pm

#68 viorelli on 06.04.18 at 10:10 pm

“One would think that clearing $8-9000 per month would afford one a very comfortable life”

As a tax accountant with many MD clients, I can assure you they do lead comfortable lives. Allow me to elaborate.

Typical MD situation (simplified):

Gross revenue = $480k ($40k/month OHIP billing – attainable working 5 day/ 37.5 hr weeks

Overhead (rent, salary for receptionist, misc. expenses) $140k

Taxable corporate income = $340k

Corporate income tax at 13.5% in Ontario = $46k

Net income after tax = $294k

Of course this is in the corporation – in order to take cash personally, there are personal tax implications. Your friend needs his $8-9k net per month.

Let’s assume he takes out $10k/month. $120k dividend to be included in MD’s personal income. In Ontario, this dividend generates personal tax of roughly $22.5k. MD is left with net $97,500, or $8,125/month.

End result:

MD is keeping $174k in his corporation ($294k less $120k). This is after-tax cash, and is typically invested/kept in a rainy-day fund, which grows and grows on a tax-deferred basis.

MD is also keeping $8,125/month x 12 = $97,500. His personal cash, to pay living expenses, mortgages, sports for the kids, etc.

Looking at it another way, total billings of $480k result in corporate cash of $174k and personal cash of $97.5k totalling $271,500. Your MD friend is actually “netting” $22,625/month.

So the next time an MD friend is crying the blues, take it with a grain of salt. I can promise you they’re doing fine.

#142 BooBooBear on 06.05.18 at 1:28 pm

#68 viorelli

It is getting harder and harder to survive in Vancouver for many people including the well paid professionals. My son’s friend’s brother is a family practice MD in New Westminster, BC. One would think that clearing $8-9000 per month would afford one a very comfortable life, but unfortunately this is no longer the case. Here is his spreadsheet of monthly expenses:
1. Mortgage on a new 3BR townhome, $ 3.280
2. Strata fees, $ 350
3. Student loan repayment $ 1800 – 2000
4. Full time child day care (private), $ 1700
5. New Honda Civic monthly payment, insurance, gas, $ 750
6. Two phone plans, $ 160
7. Grocery bills monthly $ 1000 – 1300
8. Insurance, home, life, etc. $ 250
9. Clothing, restaurant, leisure, travel (once annually), $ 400 – 500
10. Oldest child’s sports and tutoring: $ 700

Total: $ 10.890, thus he is – $ 1890 (short monthly), his wife clears roughly $ 2000 – 2500 as a part time dental hygienist, thus there is approximate savings of maybe $ 600 – 700 per month. Those are two well paid professionals in LM, I don’t even know how the rest of the regular folks doing it here. It is a great mystery.
__________________________________________
Oh, boo hoo, cry me a river…choices, it’s all about choices. Have a hard time feeling sorry for this “struggling” couple pulling in $8-9K/mon. I pull in $3700 (net) per month, and still manage to invest about 40% of that in my portfolio.

Rent – $1300
Car – $0 – bought for cash, used
Student Loan – $0 – graduated from “school of life”
Debt – $0 – because I read, and taught myself F.I.
Cell Phone – $50 – keep it simple
Grocery, Monthly Bills – $800
Investments – $800
Disposable Income/Fun – $700

It’s really not that hard. Live below your means, avoid debt like the plague, read & educate yourself, think for yourself, don’t follow the crowd. The biggest one of all… kids! They are a very, very expensive luxury – think hard before taking the plunge! It’s really not rocket science, but I’m always amazed at how deep people dig themselves into the hole.

#143 Newcomer on 06.05.18 at 1:29 pm

#110 Saint Herb on 06.05.18 at 9:07 am

“This was never about controlling prices or the housing market,” Poloz said about regulatory changes. “It was about improving the quality of indebtedness to make it more sustainable. And by all accounts, that’s looking like it’s moving in the right direction.”

—-
Now that’s some evil [email protected]#t. Sustainable indebtedness. At least he doesn’t mince words.

#144 Shawn Allen on 06.05.18 at 1:32 pm

No Payment Line of Credits?

“You are still incorrect. Nobody needs to go to an ATM and withdraw money on a LOC to then deposit as a LOC payment. Does not happen. The LOC is serviced by the line itself, with automatic bank-initiated transfers. As I said, go and get a line and see for yourself how it functions in the real world. My last entry on this arcane subject. – Garth”

************************************
Sorry to belabor the point but I honestly believe you were misled by the report that 40% of Canadians are not even paying monthly interest on lines of credit. My only experience with a home equity line of credit is with HSBC and was set up years ago and requires a monthly payment that is larger than interest.

I checked again and TD still is adamant that the minimum payment is the interest. And you cannot make the payment from that same line of credit. They tell me today that is a bank rule. A payment cannot be charged to the same account. That is against their rules.

Maybe the rules are different at the other banks.

Again, I have no disagreement that debt is excessive and I am sure many people keep increasing their lines of credit and effectively are borrowing to make the interest payment.

If automated systems exist to charge payments to the same line of credit, that is not offered by TD and if it is at other banks then I was indeed wrong.

Sorry but the idea that no-payments-required home equity line of credits exist and are indeed widespread did not sound right to me.

I have such a line. You are incorrect. – Garth

#145 jess on 06.05.18 at 1:41 pm

reputational risk the “culture”

Cocaine, girls, million-dollar fraud: What the Commonwealth Bank lender
“I’m not a rat and I was never gonna talk, I was never gonna talk. But I’m not gonna sit there and cop it because, yes, I did wrong, but I wasn’t the only one. I was taught how to do it.”

https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/cocaine-girls-million-dollar-fraud-what-the-commonwealth-bank-lender-did-next-20180511-p4zeqt.html

In a 2018, findings from the Royal Commission into Misconduct in the Banking, Superannuation and Financial Services Industry have indicated a negative culture within the Bank, amid allegations of fraud, deception, and money laundering, amoung various other crimes.

Commonwealth Bank agrees to pay $700m to settle money laundering lawsuit

If federal court accepts offer it will be largest civil penalty in Australia’s corporate history
===
http://www.austrac.gov.au/sites/default/files/statement-agreed-facts-admissions-3june2018.pdf
In August Austrac announced it was suing CBA for 53,700 alleged breaches of money laundering and counter-terrorism financing laws. The case related to CBA’s use of intelligent deposit machines, a type of ATM launched in 2012, which let customers anonymously deposit and transfer cash.

..”Austrac’s chief executive, Nicole Rose, said the agreement sent a strong message to the financial industry.”

“Again it reinforces the call we have been making for the last two years for a royal commission,” he told Sky News. “We have seen from CBA alone, scandals ranging from children’s bank accounts to charging dead people for work that hadn’t been done.”

#146 Reality is stark on 06.05.18 at 1:43 pm

First debt then taxes.
The liberals saddled us with outrageous debts.
Now the NDP can finish the job with outrageous taxes.
Do not kid yourself they will come after every dollar you have.
Within their term:
They will repeal the personal residence exemption.
They will bring back photo radar.
They will double gas taxes.
They will allow all regions to double land transfer taxes.
Anyone making over $70,000 per year will see significant provincial income tax increases.
Property taxes will skyrocket.
All luxury goods will be subject to new surtaxes.
I guarantee you that all these new taxes WILL NOT balance the budget. This will be the impetus for new inheritance taxes. Eventually you can expect that tax to hit 50%.
The NDP does not care how many new taxes they introduce.
Remember they have already told you they will increase taxes, this gives them a legal license to take all your money if they feel like it.
There is no way to forecast how much it will cost when they introduce their personal therapy program where everyone gets free psychological counselling to deal with poverty. Venezuela style poverty.

#147 jess on 06.05.18 at 1:47 pm

ding ding ding financial tax engineering

Fortunately, recently released statistics from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) on cross-border financial positions have allowed researchers to begin to pierce the veil of offshore secrecy.
Offshore shell games

Foreign direct investment is usually perceived as long-term strategic and stable investment reflecting fundamental location decisions of multinational firms. Such investment is often thought to bring job creation, production, construction of new factories, and transfer of technology. However, a new study (Damgaard and Elkjaer 2017) combines detailed statistics on foreign direct investment published by the OECD with the broad coverage of the IMF’s Coordinated Direct Investment Survey and finds that a stunning $12 trillion—almost 40 percent of all foreign direct investment positions globally—is completely artificial: it consists of financial investment passing through empty corporate shells with no real activity.

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2018/06/inside-the-world-of-global-tax-havens-and-offshore-banking/damgaard.htm#.WxUN1jS9GXo.twitter

#148 Johnnyboy on 06.05.18 at 2:12 pm

#114 How can anyone vote PC? on 06.05.18 at 10:03 am

Ford is a silver spoon moron. He ran his dads company to the ground. He is a proven liar and now word is he has stolen money from a widower. Both Liberals and Conservatives have been proven disastrous for Ontario with Conservatives to be proven the worst. Mike Harris did so much damage to Ontario that the Liberals were able to keep winning since everyone could remember the disaster called Mike Harris. Leasing thr 407 for pennies on the dollar for 99 years. Deregulating hydro from not for profit to for profit which costs us $$$$$$ to this day. All the CONs can scream is the name Bob rae who is now a Liberal. Oh no Bob rae which has cost me nothing. Mike Harris continues to costs the people money even to this day and for another 80 years on just the 407 alone. Hydro is another cost thanks to him. Ford will sell out assets for pennies on the dollar just like Mike Harris.

Scaremonger much? – Garth
……………………………………………………………………
Blah, blah, blah, it is simple vote you moron, make a difference. BTW if you don’t like paying for the 407 then don’t use it. That will sure as hell send a message to the lease holders. They may end up dumping back to us for pennies on the dollar.

#149 IHCTD9 on 06.05.18 at 2:45 pm

#122 PastThePeak on 06.05.18 at 11:21 am

Don’t encourage them! Let them stay in GTA. According to the housing bulls on this comment section, it won’t be long before the average SFD is $3M and a 1-BR condo is $1.5M.

Meanwhile, in the remainder of the country, it will be less (much less) than 50% as much. Why would this happen? Will business pay wages in GTA which are significantly higher than what they would pay in Montreal, Ottawa, Calgary, Edmonton or Halifax? Will people sign themselves up for an even higher debt ratio & service costs for life, just to live in the GTA?

Seems dubious, but who knows…
________________________________

Ha! Many are here though right? Retirees. Probably folks who were not born in the GTA, but moved there for work. Many of my peers did the same, and all of them plan on moving back here for retirement. IMHO, these folks are all good – the more the better. They bring bags of cash out here! Plus they like new subdivisions in/near town, so I don’t have to compete with them for housing!

The diversity of the GTA job market can’t be beat, but I suspect some wages have been low for a long time out there.

In fact I know they are, I worked with two Chinese engineering guys who commuted 1.5+ hrs. ea. way from the GTA to work with us. My wife works with an 55 year old Indian guy who commutes from Brampton 2++ hrs. ea. way. THAT’S INSANE.

I also think that new Canadians exiting India, the middle East, China etc, would not even come here AT ALL if it weren’t for the big enclaves in YVR and GTA. Once here – many become trapped inside them. Unless they can develop a severe unquenchable fire to learn the language, culture, and a trade – and then work with a bunch of 3rd+ Gen Canadian roughnecks in the Hinterland – I can’t see it happening. I’ve seen Chinese/East Asian Tradesmen fairly regular so they seem to do it. But that’s pretty much it outside of any foreign white folks.

I’ve never seen an Indian Tradesman – ever. Not sure about ME guys – few – if any. These guys are stuck unless they want to try their luck running a gas station/hotel/restaurant/corner store etc. (which they do out here, they live in them too).

I also think young folks just prefer the city for the most part. These younger folks can’t even change a tire – they would have big troubles if they had to get their hands dirty with something.

Someday – as I’ve said – the pain of staying will outweigh the pain of leaving – we’ll see how much they can take before something blows! If they do show up in herds, – I’ll just move North.

I’ll be watching from the lavish, yet comfortably paid for; IHCTD9 Hinterland Division Offices :).

#150 IHCTD9 on 06.05.18 at 3:21 pm

#69 Millennial Realist on 06.04.18 at 10:39 pm

…….a new generation is taking over soon, even faster than I had thought!
_______

I hope so. The sooner folks like the NDP get voted in (with majorities), the sooner the government becomes insolvent and we all start losing our jobs.

Just what the Doctor ordered for large scale IQ elevation.

#151 jess on 06.05.18 at 3:33 pm

36 Former Military and Civilian National Security Leaders Urge Congress to EndAnonymous Shell Companies
May 31, 2018

…”The U.S. remains t
he easiest place in the world to set up an anonymous shell company according to an
academic study from the University of Texas and Brigham Young University.
1
To give one example, during the
research phase of the study, one corporate formation agent in Florida responded to an email describing a
fictitious inquiry writing that, “[Y]our started [sic] purpose could well be a front for funding terrorism… I
wouldn’t even consider doing that for less [than $5,000] a month… If you are working with less than serious money, don’t waste anybody’s time here.”

…These companies have put Americans at risk and worse

criminals enjoy the benefits of strong investment
returns and total secrecy here in the U.S. Drug cartels and human trafficking operations have long
unders
tood the benefits of corporate secrecy to launder money from criminal enterprises. More recently,
anonymous companies are implicated in terror financing, fraudulent contracting with our military, and even
sanctions evasion.
The growing list of examples of anonymous companies used to undermine troop safety are unsettling to say
the least. According to research by the investigative group Global Witness, the Department of Defense
entered into a contract with a U.S.

Afghan contractor secretly owned by individuals who purchased weapons for the Taliban. Anonymous companies won contracts and provided unusable bullets, shoddy weapons parts, and ineffective body armor, endangering the troops and wasting national security dollars.
3
read more @
https://thefactcoalition.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/20180531-National-Security-BOT-Support-Letter-House-Final.pdf

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-43833116#

Financial institutions ANZ, Deutsche Bank and Citigroup will be prosecuted on criminal cartel charges, Australia’s consumer watchdog says.Several “other individuals” are also expected to be charged by prosecutors, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) said.

“The charges will involve alleged cartel arrangements relating to trading in ANZ shares following an ANZ institutional share placement in August 2015,” chairman Rod Sims said in a statement.

“It will be alleged that ANZ and the individuals were knowingly concerned in some or all of the conduct.”

The government has proposed new 10-year jail terms for bankers and other financial executives who violate misconduct laws.

#152 Not Yet on 06.05.18 at 3:55 pm

#5 Leah

The prices have not gone down yet in the Okanagan but I live downtown in Waterscapes and I saw realtor signs at the entrance to the complex on the weekend for the first time in 3 years. The Realtor down the street printed a ‘book’ of listings just for my complex haha. Wait it out. If you know anything about bubbles, first comes lack of sales, then too much inventory, then price reductions. It doesn’t happen overnight but if you’re not patient, you will lose a ton of your hard earned cash. They are over building in Kelowna beyond belief and there’s nobody to buy these condos. Albertans and Ontarions are running for the exit. It’s about to hit the fan. Get some popcorn and keep your money where it is for now. Trust me, it’s worth the wait.

#153 Barb on 06.05.18 at 3:59 pm

B.C.’s NDP govt is launching yet another review of the landlord/tenant “act”.

https://www.straight.com/news/1055731/provincial-task-force-asked-update-bc-tenancy-laws-and-address-rental-affordability

More and more “government in our face” in B.C.
Despicable.

#154 JohnnyBoy on 06.05.18 at 4:10 pm

Rudy Giuliani: No One Lied About Trump Tower Meeting, They Just Made A Mistake. I swear to God!
Wow do the American people really believe this bull$hit?
They really can not be that gullible or naive, can they? I used to believe that America was the true bastion of great power in the world. Now I do not believe a single thing that comes from the top leader or any of his minions in America.

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/rudy-giuliani-donald-trump-tower_us_5b15f598e4b093ac33a113c8

#155 Gravy Train on 06.05.18 at 4:45 pm

#138 Shawn Allen on 06.05.18 at 1:32 pm
I have such a line. You are incorrect. – Garth

Stay down for the count, Shawn. Oh—never mind—the ref and the judges have all just ruled it’s a TKO in Garth’s favour! :)

#156 Viorelli on 06.05.18 at 5:59 pm

Justin P. At 1.12 pm
My son’s friend is incorporated associate, does not own his own practice and working around 60 hours a week. He barely saves anything on his corporate account. The pay structure was negotiated with the owner who is also an M.D. and employs one more associate doctor.

#157 Ronaldo on 06.05.18 at 7:35 pm

#152 Not Yet on 06.05.18 at 3:55 pm

#5 Leah

The prices have not gone down yet in the Okanagan but I live downtown in Waterscapes and I saw realtor signs at the entrance to the complex on the weekend for the first time in 3 years. The Realtor down the street printed a ‘book’ of listings just for my complex haha. Wait it out. If you know anything about bubbles, first comes lack of sales, then too much inventory, then price reductions. It doesn’t happen overnight but if you’re not patient, you will lose a ton of your hard earned cash. They are over building in Kelowna beyond belief and there’s nobody to buy these condos. Albertans and Ontarions are running for the exit. It’s about to hit the fan. Get some popcorn and keep your money where it is for now. Trust me, it’s worth the wait.
—————————————————————-
Totally agree, it’s a repeat of the 90’s.