Stuff happens

It’s not often this blog talks about my day job. For good reason. It’s not a commercial – so you don’t see any Google Adwords here or banners for mortgage floggers, banks, thirsty underwear manufacturers or robo advisors.  Over the last decade Canadians have trusted me with a lot of wealth and everybody accepted as a client seems to have the same two goals: (a) don’t lose my money and (b) make it grow reasonably.

Investing prudently, hacking taxes, planning for life’s goals and bumps and giving wise advice is the responsibility I’ve embraced. As I watch people succeed, it’s a rush. Then, of course, I go home and write this pathetic blog. But the message here is the same as in my business – be balanced, be liquid and be diversified. I walk the talk.

Oddly that brings to Grand Forks, BC, where Greg is still wearing moist shorts. He has a lesson to share.

Greetings from a frequent blog reader but general non-contributor.  However, I thought you might find this interesting.

I live in Grand Forks BC, location of severe flooding this spring.  High water surpassed even the 1948 event and huge portions of the town and outlying areas got hit hard.  The whole of downtown proper was submerged and many homes in flood plain locations were totally inundated.  Even a few on higher ground suffered immense damage as embankments eroded.  Word is that many buildings in town may not be salvageable due to backed up sewage.

So, many people have been hit hard financially – lost ‘everything’ in some cases.  Sadly, it seems to be the old story of having essentially all of your net worth in a single asset.  Those involved, I assume, thought it would never happen to them, yet when the value of that single asset collapsed, so went their lives along with it.  I feel for these folks.

About 2,800 families were evacuated in the GF area, and it’s too early to know what the damage will be to homes. A similar story in New Brunswick, where 10,000 people were affected and the TransCanada Highway shut down for days, also for flooding. The early estimate of the cost of homeowners there is $24 million. People with all their net worth in real estate, with mortgages and maybe sketchy insurance, have been whacked.

But this isn’t just about water. Let’s add fire.

The Beast was a forest inferno in Alberta that consumed much of Fort McMurray in May of 2016. Over 80,000 people were forced to flee and when The Beast finally moved out of town (it would take another full year to tame), 2,400 buildings were left incinerated or largely destroyed.

The initial response from officials – politicians and realtors – was that the place would be revived by a torrent of insurance money flowing in to fund rebuilding. They also said because so much of the housing stock had gone up in flames that prices would jump, given the extremely limited supply.

Well, says Brittany, it didn’t work out that way.

“Sure lots of people have been building new homes – hundreds of them – but they’ve also been leaving and selling them. That new construction has just made all the old houses worth less, and now we are all heading lower. It’s a mess.” Brittany says the house she and John have was worth $850,000 two years ago and now, “maybe six hundred, and going down every month.”

Active listings in Fort Mac last month were about 24% lower than a year ago as the market seizes up. The average sale price dropped again – by 8% – and is now $580,753. This, despite the fact oil has spurted above $70 US, thanks to Trump’s stance on Iran and the new mid-east turmoil caused by moving the US embassy to Jerusalem. Since bottoming, oil has risen 160% and local real estate has lost 30%. And now the mark of The Beast lingers.

Are widening floods and angry fires a result of climate change? Beats me. But weather is unpredictable and since real estate’s an immovable asset, properties are always vulnerable to extremes, whatever the cause. Having all of your financial eggs in a single basket – one house on one street in a single city – is a risky proposition, especially when big leverage was used to get it. Insurance is supposed to mitigate that risk, but have you read your policy lately? Have you ever tried to collect? Seems insurers are in the business of Hoovering premiums, then seeking ways not to pay.

Balance means buying real estate when you can afford it, and without gutting your finances. If you can increase cash flow – saving and investing more – by renting for a few years, then do it. No shame there. With rates rising and debt everywhere, the odds are financial assets will perform better than houses for a long stretch. Real estate does not equal security or stability, and owning some is not a financial strategy. It’s only part of one.

Make sure you always own stuff that will not drown, burn or blow away. And that was not a commercial. Seriously.

100 comments ↓

#1 AnyonebutKathleen on 05.21.18 at 6:13 pm

The calm before the economic storm…..

#2 Victoria Real Estate Update on 05.21.18 at 6:13 pm

PREDICTIONS BASED ON NOTHING

* “Demand Likely To Continue In 2017”. – Victoria’s R/E board, January 3, 2017

April:
2018: 376 *
2017: 403
2016: 705
2015: 435

March:
2018: 295 *
2017: 429
2016: 569
2015: 393

February:
2018: 236 *
2017: 304
2016: 404
2015: 285

January:
2018: 193*
2017: 204
2016: 250
2015: 162
(Source: Victoria’s R/E board)

So realtors at Victoria’s R/E board predicted that 2016 demand was “likely to continue in 2017” but, instead, demand for detached homes tanked in 2017. And the situation has worsened significantly in 2018.

What was their (wrong) prediction, “Demand Likely To Continue In 2017”, based on?

The local board provided no real facts to justify their bullish prediction.

There was no recent major permanent change to the local economy (employment) that could have been used to substantiate such a statement. The key word is “permanent”.

Victoria did experience what all housing bubbles do – a temporary debt-induced (speculative) construction and sales boom as part of it’s bubble inflation. But hundreds of years of world housing bubble history proves that the effect of such booms on a local economy are always only temporary. The key word is “temporary”.

Victoria’s recent temporary speculative real estate boom began after January 2015 when local speculators, flippers and amateur landlords became confident that interest rates would never rise again after the Bank of Canada lowered (emergency level) rates again on January 21, 2015. Again, the key word is “temporary”.

100% temporary. 0% permanent.

So the local board’s prediction, “Demand Likely To Continue in 2017”, was based on nothing. And they were wrong.

And now they want you to believe (again without fact-based justification) that Victoria’s significant sales slowdown won’t result in future lower prices in Victoria (when history proves the contrary with housing bubbles – that a significant sales slowdown signals that the inevitable major price correction is on the horizon).

“Slower start to spring does not signal lower prices for Victoria real estate market”. – Victoria’s R/E board, May 1, 2018

#3 RAY SPENCER on 05.21.18 at 6:15 pm

Sage Advice. Thank You for your blog.

#4 yvrmc on 05.21.18 at 6:16 pm

Does the average house insurance policy cover floods, or is that a clause you need to pay extra for?

#5 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.21.18 at 6:23 pm

Just spoke with an aquaintance who owns a house and an “investment” condo.
Loses $300/month on rent/strata/taxes.
When I suggested he sell now because it would sell for a small profit……. “Nah, Real estate here always goes up…..”
He then mentioned his brother has sold his house of 20+ years and bought a million dollar condo……”It’ll be worth $2 million in 5-10 years.”
When I suggested that real estate is too expensive now for most people and everyone is in debt up to their eyeballs he shook his head, ” Doesnt matter the offshore money will pick up the slack.”

Lets see it he’s singing the same song in 6 months or a year.

#6 TurnerNation on 05.21.18 at 6:40 pm

Everything old is new again: feudal slaves renting space from the masters, the land owners. Did we think they’d let us get economic power? The same which is required to start wars?

You know when our elites keep telling us we’re free…this means…
(They go out of their way.)Free to watch endless mind numbing hours of their “programming” online, free to gorge at all-you-can eats of heavily modified but good tasking gunk. Fatten up, the lean times are coming.

From the home of the Free-est:

“United Way has done a study on a group of Americans they call ALICE: Asset Limited, Income Constrained, Employed. The study found that this group does not make the money needed “to survive in the modern economy.”

ALICE is your child care worker, your parent on Social Security, the cashier at your supermarket, the gas attendant, the salesperson at your big box store, your waitress, a home health aide, an office clerk. ALICE cannot always pay the bills, has little or nothing in savings, and is forced to make tough choices such as deciding between quality child care or paying the rent. One unexpected car repair or medical bill can push these financially strapped families over the edge.

ALICE is a hardworking member of the community who is employed yet does not earn enough to afford the basic necessities of life.

ALICE earns above the federal poverty level but does not earn enough to afford a bare-bones household budget of housing, child care, food, transportation, and healthcare. (source)”

#7 Flooding on 05.21.18 at 6:49 pm

Before you purchase a residence near a river, pond, or lake be sure to check the history of past flooding in the area. Next inquire if future flooding projections have been done, and look at them carefully. Talk with the neighbours, and lastly have a chat with the town engineer. You will be amazed what you might find.

#8 For those about to flop... on 05.21.18 at 6:51 pm

When I was around 20 years old ,as I sat in car in my driveway contemplating whether to go and have a couple of hop pops at the auto body shop around the corner ,I noticed smoke starting to billow out of the eaves of my house.

I raced up to the front door and opened it and toxic dark grey smoke poured out.

The smoke ceiling was about 3 feet off the ground an so I dropped to my knees to go and see what was going on.

I crawled down the hallway and down into the kitchen.

What I saw was my refrigerator on fire ,halfway through the floorboards and flames creeping up the wall towards the roof.

Only a handful of people in town had cell phones back then,so I crawled back to the hallway and slow dialled “000” which was the emergency number in Australia as it was the hardest number to miss-dial as you had to spin the whole phone dial around 3 times.

The lady that answered told me to go wait outside and the fire department would be there in 20 minutes.

As I demonstrate on this blog daily ,I am a boofhead and I decided I wasn’t going to let the house burn down as I knew once it got to the roof it was all over.

I crawled through the house and turned the power off ,which was located in the laundry room,then I started to go out the back door and at this stage I was in a full on panic and didn’t know if bringing a hose in the house and flooding the house was the wisest option , so I second guessed myself and went back in the laundry room and pulled some football gear I had soaking in big buckets in the sink out and proceeded to launch 9 or 10 buckets and the fire until I could no longer see flames and only steam.

Not long after ,the fire department turned up and brought the hoses in anyway to douse it some more ,and they got up on the roof and took the corrugated iron off the roof the allow all the pent up heat and smoke out.

The treated me on the front steps for smoke inhalation mainly from the gases emitted from the fridge made me sick for a week or so,they encouraged me to go to the hospital but I didn’t want to.

The main reason I am doing this post,is to talk about the insurance claim that happened afterwards.

In a word, if I had to describe the insurance company,tight.

They only wanted to pay for the bare minimum,surprise,surprise.

Curtains that were totally smoked,literally,they just wanted to dry clean.I replaced them on my dime.

The flooring in the kitchen was linoleum and continued into the laundry room on the left and the pantry on the right.They would only pay for the kitchen and so I had to pay for the other two rooms.

They only paid for the painting to be done in the kitchen even though the whole house was coated in toxic soot, I had to take care of the rest.

Wouldn’t pay for the carpets to be cleaned after the fire department came in and done their business.

Probably lots of other things,but I learnt early on in life that insurance companies are not your friends.

I put to house back together and done some upgrades at the same time and sold the house a few years later when I decided that having a house was o.k ,but wanted to go out and experience the world.

Tasmania is still there ,and so is that house ,mainly because I am very good at doing the opposite of what I’m told…

M43BC

#9 Lost...but not leased on 05.21.18 at 6:58 pm

RE: Today’s blog photo…

Wheres the dog….?

Oh I get it…they took the photo

#10 Shaw Vynnist Canadian Millenial on 05.21.18 at 6:59 pm

Isn’t it scientific fact that men and women have different digestive systems, with women having a longer intestinal tract than men? Why delete scientific facts?

#11 New West on 05.21.18 at 7:03 pm

Some anecdotal reports from the lower Mainland…

Talked to my sister yesterday. Her neighbour’s son (works in a trade with Hydro, recently married, kid on the way) recently bought a two bed condo in Port Moody. Apparently they are paying $6000 a month on the mortgage, with his wife due to go on maternity leave any day (and no, she is not making six figures a year, not even close).

The plan is to live in the condo for three years, and then to transfer up to Kelowna to work on the proposed transmission project and buy a house. He thinks they are going to make a bundle on the Port Moody condo when they sell. I’m sure his mum, who is a hairdresser, didn’t kick in any money, as she is worried about her own retirement – her only asset being thirty year old apartment in Coquitlam.

My colleague at work who wants to move to the Gulf Islands still hasn’t sold her place in Burnaby. It’s been on the market for five months now, lots of open houses, not one offer even after lowering the price. But then they aren’t going to “give it away” so I don’t imagine they lowered it much.

One more thing I’m noticing – way back during the last downturn here there were an increasing number of cars parked on the road with “For Sale” signs in the back window. I’m starting to see that again for the first time in years. I guess I shouldn’t be surprised. My brother in law drives an F350 for work and it’s costing ~$300 a fill now. It’s no wonder people are getting angrier on the highway.

#12 Conn Smythe on 05.21.18 at 7:05 pm

A general comment on the battle between some boomers on this blog and some millennials. Both sides have a point. As a boomer myself, like many boomers, I was brought up to work hard, save and do well in school. I know my own children have had luxuries and family vacations that I could only have dreamed of. They have grown up in a world that was very, very foreign to my childhood. Yet when I think of the largest purchase one makes in life, a principle residence, I was fortunate to get into the Toronto house market at a time when our first home cost only three times my wife and my combined salaries. I was mortgage free at the tender age of 29 with disciplined paying down of my mortgage. Truly the good ol days. This same home fast forward 30 years is worth 1.2 million. What young couple is making a third of 1.2 million in 2018? 400k a year? So I am in total sympathy for this generation starting out in a city like Toronto. I speak about it often at gatherings and the boomers that say they had it rough buying a house when they started out just don’t get the math.

#13 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 05.21.18 at 7:07 pm

The insurance industry is one helluva racket. Why bother paying out customers what they are owed and paid for all that time when there are lazy bums who need their dividends and Warren Buffett (geico) well he never has enough does he. What a scam. It’s all a scam.

#14 Just speculating but... on 05.21.18 at 7:12 pm

@For Those About to Flop, aka Burning House Man

First off, I am not in the insurance business but the insurers did cover what was the actual, primary damage and not what was collateral damage. So, if the entire house had burn’t down, perhaps they would’ve ponied up for more of the actual replacement cost. They could not, legally or morally, have expected you to do what you did.

Sometimes, doing nothing is the right thing to do.

#15 North Burnaby on 05.21.18 at 7:18 pm

I wouldn’t be where I am today had I not invested in Vancouver real estate

#16 Lot on 05.21.18 at 7:19 pm

Good point, indeed!

Be it not universally applicable.

In Vancouver, you typically see a $180k assessed home sitting on a $2M assessed lot.

Who cares if it gets burnt down? Saves the next owner from having to recycle and the old house, and wait for demolition permits.

#17 Baloney Sandwitch on 05.21.18 at 7:21 pm

Good post. Insurance is necessary evil – I make it a point to own insurance stocks (manu, sun, intact etc.) , together with banks (all), telecom (rogers, bell), hydro (one) etc. It’s makes it feel less bad when they nickel and dime you – at least I am a part owner.

#18 The Real Mark (not the imposter) on 05.21.18 at 7:22 pm


#12 Conn Smythe on 05.21.18 at 7:05 pm
A general comment on the battle between some boomers on this blog and some millennials. Both sides have a point.”

Good post.. But instead of casting the Millennials as victims, why not focus on the opportunity the Millennials have with their money going forward.

The TSX, for example, has been in a decade-long consolidation period, is priced mostly beneath the replacement cost of its assets, and the dividend yield on the TSX index, even without adjusting for taxes, is beneath that of long-term Government of Canada bonds. The boomers are generally glad to finance a purchase of TSX index funds for less than 3% pre-tax, or 2% after-tax. Sometimes even less.

If ever there was an opportunity being handed to the youngsters, this is it. Its an epic opportunity, Millennials can acquire the assets that basically make Canada live and work, at such extremely low prices.

Or people like SCM can come to this blog every day and complain about high RE prices and lack of opportunity when opportunity is basically being served up for young Canadian investors on a silver platter. Some asset classes in the Canadian economy, such as the precious metals miners, are priced literally for less than they were priced in the early 1980s. Its incredible the bargains that are out there. Even at current precious metals prices, being able to buy companies at 3X cashflow, 5-6X ex-cash earnings isn’t all that uncommon. The boomers are so infatuated with housing that they’re practically giving away their other assets at the moment.

#19 jess on 05.21.18 at 7:28 pm

..”employees may now be forced behind closed doors into an individual, costly — and often secret — arbitration process.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-21/supreme-court-says-employers-can-bar-worker-class-action-suits-jhgbqpz0

#20 Reality is stark on 05.21.18 at 7:36 pm

Taxes are not high enough.
I was so pleased when Kathleen decided to tax natural gas for home heating. Natural gas prices tanked when fracking reduced the cost. Our government realized quickly that people were previously paying more and were suddenly paying less. Obviously people could afford to pay more for heat so let’s slip in a tax and they shouldn’t notice the difference.
I can’t wait to pay a toll to go into Toronto from the Gardiner Expressway. More taxes to solve issues rather than manage and reduce costs.
However the most fair new tax is the good looking tax. It is no secret that good looking people fair better in life so they should be deemed to pay a couple percentage points more income tax at each level of our progressive system.
Our American neighbors don’t understand fairness as well as us. They have so much to learn.

#21 ShawnG in TO on 05.21.18 at 7:41 pm

> Make sure you always own stuff that will not drown, burn or blow away.

OMG is Garth suggesting …. ?? all my money on gld ! no, make that hgu ! :D

…or melt. – Garth

#22 Leichendiener on 05.21.18 at 7:53 pm

DELETED

#23 Q on 05.21.18 at 8:01 pm

Q Anon…

#24 Jack Qunintal on 05.21.18 at 8:04 pm

We only buy long term strips in our RRSP, TFSA. We now have $150,000 in our total TFSA and $900,000 in our total RRSP.

We sold our house last year and made a tax free capital gain of $800,000. We now are retired with $1,400,000 in non-registered money giving us $75,000 a year in yearly, growing dividends.

We are paying almost no taxes on $140,000 a year in annual income from all our investments. Who needs real estate. We rent a similar house with costing us 40% less when we owned and no maintenance, repairs and hassles.

#25 Fake News Again on 05.21.18 at 8:35 pm

So I wonder “how cold” for “how many years” it is going to be before dumb ass people realize that GloBULL Warming is a total scam invented by the Govt to STEAL your money.

Are you going to demand any of it back?

#26 Spectacle on 05.21.18 at 8:38 pm

#4 yvrmc on 05.21.18 at 6:16 pm
Does the average house insurance policy cover floods, or is that a clause you need to pay extra for?
————————-

Interesting addition to your inquiry.
You cannot get flood water coverage in Richmond from your insurer. Broken dishwasher etc , yes, but Richmond can and will largely flood over at some point. It is an underwater sandbar.

The YVR airport Flight services are quietly moving to the Boundary Bay Airport, for exactly this reason. Invest wisely my friend.

#27 Spectacle on 05.21.18 at 8:46 pm

crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.21.18 at 6:23 pm
Just spoke with an aquaintance who owns a house and an “investment” condo.
Loses $300/month on rent/strata/taxes.
When I suggested he sell now because it would sell for a small profit……. “Nah, Real estate here always goes up…..”

When I suggested that real estate is too expensive now for most people and everyone is in debt up to their eyeballs he shook his head, ” Doesnt matter the offshore money will pick up the slack.”

Lets see it he’s singing the same song in 6 months or a year.
————————
Or he has to pony up the difference in “bankers valuation” upon remortgaging both of his places! To say nothing of a magic Special Levy of work, perhaps the Elevator Fans for example….
Chances are he will be regretting that Otis ride of a one asset strategy, in poor odour!

#28 Smoking Man on 05.21.18 at 8:49 pm

13 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 05.21.18 at 7:07 pm
The insurance industry is one helluva racket. Why bother paying out customers what they are owed and paid for all that time when there are lazy bums who need their dividends and Warren Buffett (geico) well he never has enough does he. What a scam. It’s all a scam.
……
Yes it is.
Why don’t you own shares.? Kid the sooner you flush your idealistic teaching down the toilet and become a scamster the happier you will be.

You’re on a collision course with lifelong misary if you don’t change the way you think.

Dr Smoking Man
Phd Herdonomics.

#29 Spectacle on 05.21.18 at 8:50 pm

Lost…but not leased on 05.21.18 at 6:58 pm
RE: Today’s blog photo…

Wheres the dog….?

Oh I get it…they took the photo

——————–
If you enlarge the photo, look across the street near the white pick up truck, tadda! One grey puppy, probably named Yanny…….just a detail guy. Garth wants us to pay better attention perhaps? : )

M

#30 Tony on 05.21.18 at 8:53 pm

Re: #17 Baloney Sandwitch on 05.21.18 at 7:21 pm

Stupid money has come into the telecom stocks in Canada of late which are utilities. Why anyone would be buying utilities in Canada while U.S. utility stocks are sold off amass boggles the mind. Either some people are ignorant or don’t like money.

#31 Pete from St. Cesaire on 05.21.18 at 8:54 pm

Make sure you always own stuff that will not drown, burn or blow away. = ie. GOLD / SILVER

Give it a rest. Gold is 100% speculative and completely inappropriate for most people. Stop wasting space here. – Garth

#32 Harold on 05.21.18 at 9:00 pm

Many years ago I thought I’d like to become an insurance agent so I took the insurance course at the local college.

Day 1, lesson one, the instructor wrote in large letters on the board ‘Don’t pay the claim’. The remainder of the course focused on ways to get out of paying a claim.

It left a bad taste in my mouth and I never did pursue such a career.

#33 Tony on 05.21.18 at 9:00 pm

Re: #18 The Real Mark (not the imposter) on 05.21.18 at 7:22

Russian stocks are cheap, tsx stocks are very overvalued due to the ties or influence of the U.S. stock market which has valuations in the stratosphere.

#34 Brian on 05.21.18 at 9:02 pm

Sketchy insurance? Everyone should know that flooding and water penetration is simply not covered under a typical homeowner’s policy. I know I sure don’t want to subsidize through my premiums for their wish/choice to live river/lake front or on a flood plain.

#35 Wrk.dover on 05.21.18 at 9:03 pm

All an insurance policy is, is some thing you can sue over when you have had a loss. Lose the suit, and you never really had good insurance at all is the bottom line, the way those frat boys operate. Allegedly. I hear.

With motor vehicles, the longer you can hold out for a proper settlement, the bigger it gets is how it basically works. A two year wait, is required for the payout you deserve. To the day.

ALICE can’t wait that long, hence profits for share holders. Ethical as nothing.

#36 Reynolds531 on 05.21.18 at 9:07 pm

Gold will melt in a house fire. Wash away in a flood. And get handed to me at gunpoint when the zombies take over.

#37 Bezengy on 05.21.18 at 9:44 pm

My Daughter called me at 3:30 PM that day from the Fort and told me things were getting serious as her guy, who happened to be a fireman was called back to work, even though he had just finished a 12 hour shift, but no worries she said, probably just the usual precautionary crap. The next few hours I received sporadic texts from her, the tone changed from humor to terror quickly as dogs and other family pets couldn’t be saved and were left abandoned, hospital and fire trucks were on fire, absolute chaos everywhere, grab the children and leave now. She left with a convoy of three vehicles, and luckily one made it out with everyone packed in, just missing a little paint maybe. Life changing experience for her for sure, and you can bet she no longer worries about the small stuff. I honestly I think she’s a better person for having experienced the disaster, in some weird kind of way. It’s not over of course, for many the damage is done, and they face heavy financial loss, or even worse many have been directly affected health wise, and yes some have paid the ultimate price. Anyway, to your point, you can plan all you want but sometimes, life throws you a curve. And sadly, “the best made plans of men and mice often go awry”

#38 cd on 05.21.18 at 9:54 pm

“Make sure you always own stuff that will not drown, burn or blow away”

motorcycles

#39 Harrison Bergeron on 05.21.18 at 10:04 pm

Since the comments are steering towards insurance and female intestine length. I’ll add it takes females in general longer to heal from whiplash crashes on account of the their longer neck. Any other oddities to add?

#40 Built to Spec on 05.21.18 at 10:31 pm

The “middle east turmoil”, by which you mean the violent Gaza protests, was happening anyway, as a Hamas tactic and Israel’s 70th anniversary.

Relative to the much bigger sources of conflict in the area, i.e Syria, Iran, it’s hard to see how eiher the protests or the embassy have any effect on the price of oil.

#41 Tony on 05.21.18 at 10:32 pm

Another one of my mother’s predictions from 4 and a half years ago comes true.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/sunnybrook-stables-fire-1.4671735

#42 Linda on 05.21.18 at 10:34 pm

Regarding the insurance premiums comment, amen. After all, insurance is a business & exists to make a profit. Paying out more than premiums collected is not what any insurer wants to do.

Climate change is real, apparently cyclical & while I maintain it is not solely human caused I do think human activity has exacerbated the effects. From an insurers point of view, nightmare scenario. The drawback to urbanization & population growth means any major weather related disaster is magnified. Their best hope is that many people are either uninsured or under insured. Or if they are insured, they have said or done something that permits the insurer to deny the claim.

Since these events are expected to continue & intensify, the prudent person should take steps (including getting insurance if they haven’t already done so) & assess what they can do to mitigate whatever risks they think might reasonably occur.

#43 TurnerNation on 05.21.18 at 10:47 pm

Logged in to check Futures. Melt up for a week or so.

I’d rather this blog offered tips on How to pose on Instagram; or, How to Shotgu88 a Beer. Handbrake turns anybody?

Say, who raised those Millennials? Why it was those Boomers.

Sinc,

GenXer

#44 YVR - 60% crash! on 05.21.18 at 10:52 pm

#24 Jack Qunintal

“$150,000 in our total TFSA”

Whatever You Are Smoking, I Want Some!

#45 Steven Rowlandson on 05.21.18 at 10:55 pm

It isn’t that $70+ a barrel for crude oil that decides the health of the economy as much as it is the pay rates and hours for the majority of wage earners. If their pay is too close to minimum wage their spending power will be crap and savings will be insignificant and their real capacity to pay these grotesque home prices will be crap just like their pay rates. One has to view the economy as a system with feed back mechanisms. When things are in balance the system works because the bills get paid and people get what they want or need. Jack up costs without increasing income and sooner or later bills don’t get paid, people go without and you wind up with a crisis or worse.

#46 BCWally on 05.21.18 at 11:10 pm

I hope for the best for Ft. Mac as I have friends I work with that live there. It’s highly unlikely that things will get better for the place any time soon though.
Pipeline capacity is too full for any expansions, in fact it’s so bad the oil majors up there are taking cash flow and buying their own outstanding shares rather than site development. Great for shareholders like myself but sad that you can make more money this way.
By the way most of us in the BC interior support Kinder Morgan as poll data proves so please don’t paint the whole province with the same brush.
Just one more comment on that – this pipeline is a test on whether Canada is a secure place to invest in. If it dies, then there is a whole lot of outside investment that will disappear on the basis that the country has no clear governance.
Imagine the effect on housing prices then.

#47 Bobby on 05.21.18 at 11:31 pm

For #20 Reality is Stark

How about a tax on idiots? Looking at what is happening here in Canada I would suggest the government would collect a bundle.
How much would they collect from you? Any idea?

#48 Ex-Cowtown on 05.22.18 at 12:11 am

“Any other oddities to add?”
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Quiet night, so just a couple:

1. The pronouncement by CNN that “Obama was only spying on the Trump campaign to protect him from Russia, so Trump should thank him”. That statement will be used 100 years from now as the best known example of cognitive dissonance in the 21st Century.

2. Researchers have closed the door on Global Warming. It’s been determined that solar activity is the ultimate cause of climate change.

http://notrickszone.com/#sthash.NErzfnQa.dpbs

Ten years from now talk of regulating cow farts and imposing carbon taxes will be viewed with the same nostalgia as ABBA music.

http://www.breitbart.com/big-hollywood/2018/05/21/bill-nye-taxing-cow-farts-a-fantastic-thing-for-the-world/

Like I said, quiet night….

#49 Darrrel on 05.22.18 at 12:19 am

…. I knew there was a reason the wife took longer in the lou

#50 Leo Trollstoy on 05.22.18 at 12:21 am

#24 Jack Qunintal on 05.21.18 at 8:04 pm
We sold our house last year and made a tax free capital gain of $800,000.

Nice job selling at the peak of real estate prices!

#51 Leo Trollstoy on 05.22.18 at 12:23 am

The good news for Millenials is that Boomers won’t spend their inheritance! They tend to die with their unspent money

#52 jane24 on 05.22.18 at 1:32 am

Garth the real mystery is why a house in the frozen north of Canada was worth $850,000 in the first place. That had to be a false economy that would fall for some reason at some time. Made no sense.

Son was considering using his second passport and returning to Canada the land of his birth for a few years to work. Family over there all singing that Canada is the best place on earth. Well he got his calculator out and concluded that the wages are generally low, the cost of living and taxes very high and that there isn’t much to do or see in the snow. Has decided that life and future prospects are better elsewhere for his generation. More younger members of our large family should do the same. This world is a large and exciting place.

#53 Vampire studies GMST on 05.22.18 at 1:34 am

http://www.env.gov.bc.ca/wsd/data_searches/fpm/reports/keyplans-html/kettle-granby-r-at-grand-forks5-9.html

I dont think you can get flood insurance in any of these designated flood plain areas.

Local governments are mandated by legislation to enforce building to these respective flood levels. Of course no guarantee this will be high enough, but the province figured it out close enough that they will cover it. At least this is the idea.

#54 Wallflower on 05.22.18 at 1:52 am

Standing at intersection on Westside today. Overheard, “Their condo deal fell through on Friday. It isn’t going to close.”

#55 Oft deleted much maligned stock.picker on 05.22.18 at 2:07 am

I agree ….real estate has zero value as an investment….as a non fungible asset it’s virtually useless except to create debt. Mine is a family flophouse….”worth’ over a million… but not on the balance sheet. Real money is in stocks that go up.

#56 Smoking Man on 05.22.18 at 2:23 am

Just watched Black Panther. I was expecting some virtue signalling theme, those evil old white men….

Wow it blew my mind.. Best movie in a decade..

The theme was rise up, love your fellow man and believe in yourself and stop thinking you are a victim..

Brilliant movie….

#57 NoName on 05.22.18 at 2:27 am

There you have it, edragon calling for new ottoman empire. balkan kaput, again???

https://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/news/erdogan-mobilises-diaspora-friends-in-balkans/

#58 Smartalox on 05.22.18 at 2:52 am

Flopper, it sounds like utter horro what you went through, both at the time of the fire and afterward, but i agree with poster #14: do what you can to save life and limb, and after that, just let it burn.

Without health, there is no wealth.

I recall in my teens I found myself in a similar position, once. running into a burining building to pull (of all things) Jerry dans of gas out of a fire. I rationalised it by telling myself that doing so avoided an explosion that would have injured many amateur fire figurera on the scene, including my little brother, working just outside to set up a fire pump.

I recall a moment of clarity, watching flames lick across the ceiling of the cabin, as we rushed in, and how it reminded me of a log on a fire: that’ll never be the same

We rent, and in doing so we’ve saved a decent nest egg. But last week was the annual fire alarm test the in our complex, and I took the time to school our four year old: if you hear that sound, get out. Don’t wait for us.

Get to the street, we will come find you.

Glad you made it out, (literally AND figuratively) but don’t do that again. Everything you have will be irreparably damaged, and few things are worth a life.

#59 Westcdn on 05.22.18 at 2:53 am

My insurance companies have always paid my claims, rare as it is. Perhaps it is because I am cheap and not looking for a profit.

#60 Gravy Train on 05.22.18 at 6:15 am

#48 Ex-Cowtown on 05.22.18 at 12:11 am
“Any other oddities to add?”

Tell us some more of your conspiracy theories, you wackadoodle! :)

#61 Conn Smythe on 05.22.18 at 7:29 am

15 Canada=Poor cousin of U.S on 05.22.18 at 2:54 am
Too late to the party…

“I wish I could live in states and get a green card…
very sad…..”

You have to be kidding… Want to live in the good ol’ US of A where 63% of Americans can’t afford the $1000 tab for an emergency hospital visit or a $500 emergency car repair? Try a serious illness like cancer in the USA and not have medical insurance and let me know how it works out for you.

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/63-of-americans-cant-afford-500-car-repair-or-1000-emergency-room-visit-300200097.html

#62 Conn Smythe on 05.22.18 at 7:31 am

#59 Westcdn

“My insurance companies have always paid my claims, rare as it is. Perhaps it is because I am cheap and not looking for a profit.”

Same here. Had a couple cars written off and my insurance paid up and I even had a nice rental for a month while waiting…

There seems to be a wide gulf between auto insurance and property coverage. – Garth

#63 Conn Smythe on 05.22.18 at 7:35 am

55 Oft deleted much maligned stock.picker on 05.22.18 at 2:07 am
“I agree ….real estate has zero value as an investment….as a non fungible asset it’s virtually useless except to create debt. Mine is a family flophouse….”worth’ over a million… but not on the balance sheet. Real money is in stocks that go up.”

Tell your line of real estate has zero value as an investment to the good folks I know who bought homes in Toronto in the good ol days for $20k and now have an asset worth $2 million and the kicker, it is capital gains free because it is their primary residence. Zero value as an investment huh?

#64 Conn Smythe on 05.22.18 at 7:38 am

With all the Canada bashing going on here, poor cousin of the US of A, better places in the world to live, etc…. Guess the students from over 20 nations that attend my private high school didn’t get the memo that Canada is a crap place to live…. If only they knew!

#65 dharma bum on 05.22.18 at 7:38 am

Real estate does not equal security or stability, and owning some is not a financial strategy. It’s only part of one. – Garth
——————————————————————–

Stay diversified. As Lao Tzu warns: “Going to extremes is never best”.

Always maintain balance.

#66 Trumpocalypse2018 on 05.22.18 at 8:34 am

Floods, volcanoes, forest fire season just beginning. You are totally right, Garth.

Add another elephant in the room: Food supply is also under a massive cloud of risk right now as well, so there could be widespread famine very shortly. 70% of beekeepers report unsustainable colony losses in Ontario.

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/bees-ontario-beekeepers-suffer-devastating-losses/101723

No bees, no pollination, no produce, no animals, no humans. Follow the breadcrumbs, or lack thereof.

Stock up NOW on canned goods. I have a three year supply and am ramping this up to five years as we speak. There are also simple ways to extend the life of canned goods.

Oh, and did I mention, Trump’s WAR is coming, too.

Don’t be a greater fool.

PREPARE.

#67 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.22.18 at 8:41 am

@#15 North Burnaby
“wouldn’t be where I am today had I not invested in Vancouver real estate”
*******

Thats why you live in a condo in Burnaby?

#68 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.22.18 at 8:50 am

@#11 New West
“an increasing number of cars parked on the road with “For Sale” signs in the back window. I’m starting to see that again for the first time in years. I guess I shouldn’t be surprised. My brother in law drives an F350 for work and it’s costing ~$300 a fill now”
*****

Yup, disposable income is vanishing.
I’m seeing a lot of vacant stores “For Lease”.
Everyone complaining about the price of everything………
Working poor?
We’ll see in the next few months of low sales, remortgages at higher rates, B20 twisting the screws tighter……
Havent seen many house fires yet…….

#69 James on 05.22.18 at 8:58 am

56 Smoking Man on 05.22.18 at 2:23 am

Just watched Black Panther. I was expecting some virtue signalling theme, those evil old white men….
Wow it blew my mind.. Best movie in a decade..
The theme was rise up, love your fellow man and believe in yourself and stop thinking you are a victim..
Brilliant movie….
____________________________________________
You are correct the movie was not about you at all. It was a good movie if you are in to fantasy sci fi.

#70 Ex-Cowtown on 05.22.18 at 9:00 am

#60 Gravy Train on 05.22.18 at 6:15 am
#48 Ex-Cowtown on 05.22.18 at 12:11 am
“Any other oddities to add?”

Tell us some more of your conspiracy theories, you wackadoodle! :)

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

When you go straight to name calling, you’ve admitted that you’ve lost the argument. Thanks for the easy win!!!

“Every dollar spent on Carbon Tax is a dollar wasted” – Ex-Cowtown

#71 James on 05.22.18 at 9:07 am

62 Conn Smythe on 05.22.18 at 7:29 am

15 Canada=Poor cousin of U.S on 05.22.18 at 2:54 am
Too late to the party…

“I wish I could live in states and get a green card…
very sad…..”

You have to be kidding… Want to live in the good ol’ US of A where 63% of Americans can’t afford the $1000 tab for an emergency hospital visit or a $500 emergency car repair? Try a serious illness like cancer in the USA and not have medical insurance and let me know how it works out for you.

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/63-of-americans-cant-afford-500-car-repair-or-1000-emergency-room-visit-300200097.html
___________________________________________
My wife’s sister in law found this out the hard way. They live in San Diego. They live on the edge with minimal coverage just squeezing by with enough to cover the biggies. Oh yes you can pick and choose what you want to cover. Preexisting conditions short of anything can preclude you from gaining insurance even if you can afford it. Say for example you had a small cancerous lesion that was benign then you are hooped for cancer coverage unless have oodles of cash for a higher premium. So if your in excellent health with zero preexisting conditions you good to go and start paying that premium if you can afford it.

#72 Conn Smythe on 05.22.18 at 10:17 am

#73 James

Thanks for the personal example of someone in the “good ‘ol USA”. Now for a contrasting tale of Canada’s medical system. An immediate family member had cancer and was treated at Princess Margaret one of the top 5 cancer research hospitals in the world. Our bill for 6 months of chemo therapy under expert hands? You know the answer and yes, I gladly pay my taxes to pay for such a service. Thank you Tommy Douglas, you were truly a great Canadian!

#73 Tbone on 05.22.18 at 10:42 am

I have owned houses since 1980 .
Never made a claim on my insurance policy .
They must love guys like me .
I subsidize the phoney claim payouts .

#74 Penny Henny on 05.22.18 at 10:49 am

#8 For those about to flop… on 05.21.18 at 6:51 pm
When I was around 20 years old ,as I sat in car in my driveway contemplating whether to go and have a couple of hop pops at the auto body shop around the corner ,I noticed smoke starting to billow out of the eaves of my house.
////////////////////////////

Going to the Auto Body shop to have a couple of beers.

Sounds like great fun

#75 Fish on 05.22.18 at 11:08 am

First no guarantee but please remember not a mind

reader, time,

who needs to be second, or third

When you can be at last

Oh the beauty of it and all you have to do is say

something, like over coffee

#76 Gravy Train on 05.22.18 at 11:24 am

#72 Ex-Cowtown on 05.22.18 at 9:00 am
“When you go straight to name calling, you’ve admitted that you’ve lost the argument. Thanks for the easy win!”

Were we arguing? I didn’t realize that.

I see you’re an avid reader of Breitbart ‘News’. That’s good for a giggle, don’t you think?

What do you think of the TV documentary series The Circus: Inside the Greatest Political Show on Earth? Have you watched it? No? I think you’d enjoy it. All the Trump supporters are hilarious to listen to. All their stereotypical behaviour we’ve come to expect is on full display. It’s as if the chickens insist that the fox guard the henhouse, don’t you think? :)

#77 bill on 05.22.18 at 11:27 am

nice vid of the bluenose Garth!

#78 Smoking Man on 05.22.18 at 11:38 am

Whoa!!! Everyone bailing on Canadian Bank ETFs
Must be the MSM pushing their love of the NDP.

Money has wings people…

#79 Damifino on 05.22.18 at 11:44 am

#51 Leo Trollstoy

The good news for Millenials is that Boomers won’t spend their inheritance! They tend to die with their unspent money
————————————

All the more reason to bequeath one’s wealth to worthy organizations that fight Alzheimer’s disease or Cancer.

So yes, in that way, it is good news for Millennials.

#80 Alistair McLaughlin on 05.22.18 at 11:44 am

@$7 Flooding, In most places, your insurance won’t cover you for “overland flooding” (i.e. natural flood). Your insurance will usually cover flooding due to sewer back up or a plumbing malfunction or a gutter failure that ends up dumping water into your basement window well. But if the local creek overflows its banks and swamps your house, you’re on your own.

There is specific overland flood insurance available in some areas, but it costs a bloody fortune.

#81 conan on 05.22.18 at 12:01 pm

Quite the electoral swing happening in Ontario. Looks like an Orange wave unless the Liberals receive a miracle.

Not going Harper Blue…… Liberals will vote NDP,and vice versa.

Same will happen in the next Federal election, except it will be another Red wave.

Lessons for Conservatives? Don’t let anyone like Harper lead your Party ever again.

Sorry Police State…errrr Harper Blue lovers.

#82 Wrk.dover on 05.22.18 at 12:10 pm

Was in the passenger seat of a vehicle t-boned by an 18 wheeler. The seat belt grabbed hard. Couldn’t get my arms over my head for a couple of weeks. Ribs sore. Scar on face from flying glass. Was offered $500. Over time the offer grew. Got $3400 two years to the day.

#83 CJBob on 05.22.18 at 12:53 pm

#83 conan on 05.22.18 at 12:01 pm
Quite the electoral swing happening in Ontario. Looks like an Orange wave unless the Liberals receive a miracle.
_______________
I’d suggest you change your user name to ‘Leon Lett Superbowl’.

I am among many who will vote NDP for the first time because we can’t stomach the other options. But this is far from over and I still expect a small PC victory unless
they let Doug Ford talk. Out loud. In public.

#84 oncebittwiceshy on 05.22.18 at 12:58 pm

Conn Smyth: “Our bill for 6 months of chemo therapy under expert hands? You know the answer and yes, I gladly pay my taxes to pay for such a service. Thank you Tommy Douglas, you were truly a great Canadian!”
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

There is no greater value than your loved one being saved. Conversely, my mom died waiting for her operation. Win some and lose some in Canada, I guess.

#85 Boots on the Ground in Ptown on 05.22.18 at 1:07 pm

http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/channels/pipelinepress/05222018-yield-curve-shape.aspx

“Last week a long-time mortgage executive shared his thoughts with me on today’s market. “The tough retail origination market we are in currently is here to stay for several years. The industry has grown accustomed to challenging markets ending in 18-24 months, usually based on some sort of refinance activity. That is not going to happen this time, and it is going to be particularly difficult for smaller companies originating $1 billion or less annually unable to reduce fixed operations costs enough to offset shrinking volume and margins. I believe that going forward to survive and prosper you will need plenty of capital, scale, the very best technology, and great cost efficiency. Eventually things will improve but not until capacity shrinks through company failures and consolidation. As it stands right now, company owners are taking more and more risk for a smaller and smaller share of the profits, and that is not sustainable. Eventually LO’s compensation will have to come in line with the realities of today’s economics, but many expect things to get worse for owners before they get better.” If you would like to discuss today’s environment, finding the right partner, or looking at your options, please contact me to forward your note along to an interested party.”

#86 jess on 05.22.18 at 1:17 pm

Conclusion

The popularity of the out-of-context video showed how fast a sensationalist piece of falsified content can spread through social networks in the midst of an developing security situation. It was noteworthy that the out-of-context video was watched almost a million times across Twitter and more than 158,000 on Facebook.

This is not the first time that @DFRLab observed out-of-context videos being used to spread disinformation. Last week, DFRLab wrote about a video with false subtitles spreading in the Moldovan information space. The video allegedly depicted Moldova’s mayoral candidate agreeing to lease the city of Chisinau to the United Arab Emirates for 50 years. The doctored video went viral on social networks and generated more than 500,000 views.

Both of these case studies serve as stark reminders for social media users to remain vigilant and skeptical when consuming information online from new or unverified sources. Only this can produce digital resilience across society.”

https://medium.com/dfrlab/viral-video-from-gaza-protests-not-actually-from-gaza-protests-6186791586cc

#87 LP on 05.22.18 at 1:21 pm

#63 Conn Smythe on 05.22.18 at 7:31 am
#59 Westcdn

There seems to be a wide gulf between auto insurance and property coverage. – Garth
*****************************************

Back in the olden days, around 1976, my husband was walking our collie off-leash in a very large empty lot, probably 10 acres in size. It was early evening. “Major” scared up a rabbit and gave chase despite being called back. All over that field the two animals ran, one for its life and the other just for the fun of it. Suddenly, rabbit runs across the road and Major was right after it. Rabbit just missed the oncoming car but the dog ran square into the side of the driver’s door.

The resulting damage to the caved in door was $150. Our homeowners’ policy paid it.

For the dog, the vet advised two aspirin – one that night and the other in the morning and “don’t walk him too hard for a couple of days”. Hubby had a scotch.

#88 Deplorable Dude on 05.22.18 at 3:27 pm

#78 Gravy Train….

……You have no idea what is about to happen do you….

The biggest scandal in US history is slowly being revealed by the multiple ongoing FBI/DOJ Inspector General reports.

US State surveillance apparatus was illegally used to spy on a Presidential Candidate AND sitting President in what is a soft coup attempt, and attempt to frame the President with a salacious unverified dossier, sourced from foreign spies and paid for by the DNC/Clinton.

The scale of the corruption is staggering. Witness how many senior employees of the FBI/DOJ have been fired/demoted. Those that have gone radio silent are now singing like a canary to the IG.

The MSM is doing their best to ignore it, or try and spin the narrative. They are part of it, acting as conduits for leaks from blackhats in the CIA, FBI, DOJ.

Brennan/Clapper have gone from denying it to saying so what….? Their days are numbered.

First IG report nailed McCabe…he’s still got a lot more indictments coming due to FISA abuses.

The next IG report will blow the lid off the FISA warrant abuses that took place that are mind blowing. False ‘302’ FISA warrants by McCabe and others to get a hook into the Trump campaign to spy on them.

One man deserves to be remembered as the one who saved the US Republic. Recently retired Admiral Mike Rogers (NSA)….who discovered the FISA abuse, went over the head of his boss, Brennan, and straight to Trump to inform him he was being spied on.

But of course I doubt you are aware of any of this.

Turn off the MSM…they are garbage and complicit.

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2018/05/04/doj-inspector-general-updates-testimony-postponed-fbi-response-letters-page-strzok-personal-communication-not-captured/

#89 PastThePeak on 05.22.18 at 3:38 pm

#83 conan on 05.22.18 at 12:01 pm
Quite the electoral swing happening in Ontario. Looks like an Orange wave unless the Liberals receive a miracle.

Not going Harper Blue…… Liberals will vote NDP,and vice versa.

Same will happen in the next Federal election, except it will be another Red wave.

Lessons for Conservatives? Don’t let anyone like Harper lead your Party ever again.

Sorry Police State…errrr Harper Blue lovers.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

What’s that saying again – “…better to keep your mouth shut and have some think you are a moron, than say something and prove it…”

You might want to do some fact checking – Harper had nothing to do with the Ontario PC party. But thanks for your insights…

I am fine with Ontario voting NDP – the province will get what it deserves…

#90 Wrk.dover on 05.22.18 at 3:42 pm

The trouble with making a piddling amount claim in this day and age, is that if another claim has to be made for any reason, you then have two claims on your record. A serious tarnish that you don’t want to know about what follows…jacked rates and or cancellation and needing good luck finding a new carrier.

Insurance is for full on disaster or nothing, and nothing in between.

#91 young & foolish on 05.22.18 at 3:49 pm

Treasuries up, stocks down? Does this meme still apply?

#92 Fake News Again on 05.22.18 at 3:53 pm

Gravy Train on 05.22.18 at 6:15 am
#48 Ex-Cowtown on 05.22.18 at 12:11 am
“Any other oddities to add?”

Tell us some more of your conspiracy theories, you wackadoodle! :)

_____

The words “Conspiracy Theory” was invented by pompous Govt Workers like you…….and if you would get your head out of your linear thinking butt you would see that most modern “conspiracy theories” are now FACT. But I guess when you are an avid Global/CNN watcher that feat is impossible.

#93 CJBob on 05.22.18 at 4:00 pm

#91 PastThePeak on 05.22.18 at 3:38 pm
Lessons for Conservatives? Don’t let anyone like Harper lead your Party ever again.
____________________
You might want to do some fact checking – Harper had nothing to do with the Ontario PC party.
_______________________
It’s funny when someone completely misses the point but thinks they are the smart one.

http://examples.yourdictionary.com/examples-of-similes.html

That might not be enough for you, let’s spell it out completely. Harper IS LIKE Ford. Does that help?

#94 Dawn Simms on 05.22.18 at 4:10 pm

A $150,000 TFSA for 2 people is not a far stretch as the unused TFSA room since 2009 is $57,500 each or $115,000 for 2 TFSA’s.

A 5.8% to 6% annual rate of return with full maximum annual TFSA contributions would get a $75,000 single TFSA or $150,000 for 2 people’s TFSA today.

#95 Gravy Train on 05.22.18 at 4:45 pm

#90 Deplorable Dude on 05.22.18 at 3:27 pm
#94 Fake News Again on 05.22.18 at 3:53 pm

I’ve stirred up a hornet’s nest, haven’t I? As everyone might have guessed, I love doing that! Hey, Smokey, did you want to get your licks in?

BTW, is there an office pool on the ultimate outcome? :)

#96 NoName on 05.22.18 at 5:01 pm

Small but steady increase in CC delinquencies over a last 2 years, nothing to worry for now, student loans, and mortgages are doing “fine”, but cars look bit funny.

CC
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRCCLACBS

This is kind of interesting, re in holand is piking up rate of 2000 euros a month, hut home sales are falling. Use translate if no speak nederlandian (if that is word).

https://www.businessinsider.nl/huizenprijs-stijgt-9-in-april-in-12-maanden-werd-je-huis-e1-935-per-maand-duurder/

and this

The historical relationship between house prices and recessions, in one chart

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/house-price-cycle-lead-indicator-recession-periods-2018-5?_ga=2.142581042.1251338117.1527021560-1398237650.1527021560

#97 Newcomer on 05.22.18 at 5:10 pm

This just in from the Who Needs More Land department:

“The fact is that all of East Asia, all of Europe, and all of North America are experiencing birthrates that are below replacement level — which means, simply, were it not for immigration and longer life spans, all of these regions would be experiencing year-to-year population decline.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/22/opinion/populist-populism-fertility-rates.html

It makes it clear that the notion that residential real estate is a long-term play because of population growth is silly. And while remaining populations are concentrating in cities, Japan a Russia both show once overall growth goes negative cities start to shrink too. Canada will probably be able to rely on immigration to maintain its population growth at the current historic lows for a while longer. But the writing is on the wall.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2015/01/12/reference/residences-left-empty-posing-problems-across-nation/#.WwSHAIjRWUk

#98 SoggyShorts on 05.22.18 at 7:44 pm

#63 Conn Smythe on 05.22.18 at 7:31 am
#59 Westcdn

“My insurance companies have always paid my claims, rare as it is. Perhaps it is because I am cheap and not looking for a profit.”

Same here. Had a couple cars written off and my insurance paid up and I even had a nice rental for a month while waiting…

There seems to be a wide gulf between auto insurance and property coverage. – Garth
****************************
Not that big of a gulf. I totalled my truck when a car ran a red light, and while at physio therapy my insurance left me a voicemail to tell me they had valued it at $21K and that’s what I would be getting. All I had to do was call back and confirm.
Later that night I checked my policy and discovered I had an “R43” clause that states if my truck is totalled in the first 24 months that I would get the purchase price as a settlement.
Narrowly avoided getting screwed out of $15,000 on that one….

#99 Danny Baccianne on 05.22.18 at 9:51 pm

We are mortgage free for 50 years now and never have paid for home insurance on my 2 houses we owned.

We figure we saved about $200,000 in premiums and compound interest we would of lost.

#100 Shawn on 05.23.18 at 1:40 pm

Notable emerging market and Europe weakness…

Big USDCAD rally coming

SPY > EEM > VGK