Shocking

When Donald Trump unwisely blew up the Iran deal this week, it sure didn’t help your mortgage. Oil jumped a few bucks on the news, topped seventy dollars and convinced some people it’s on the way to eighty or even ninety by year’s end. So if you think gas prices are crazy now, just wait.

Oil means inflation. It pops the cost of most everything. Turning off Iran’s big pipe was the last thing needed, now that bond yields have been swelling, central banks hiking and Canadians dealing with an epic debt overhang. It’s another thing the Trumpster has been doing to increase the cost of living, along with trade tariffs, big deficit spending and protectionism. His corporate tax cuts are also stoking the fires, since they’ve led to rising corporate profits, higher stock markets and an unemployment rate of just 3.9%. That means wage pressures. More inflation. Higher bond yields. Rate increases.

Well, look at the Bank of Canada’s bond chart. Tells you all you need to know.

Government of Canada Marketable Bonds – Average Yield – 3 to 5 year

Source: Bank of Canada, May 8, 2017 to May 8, 2018

The yield on government bonds here in cold Canada has been tracking those in the excited states – of course. That’s what the bond market does, because wealth has no allegiance to any nation. Higher inflation and tighter monetary policy to the south of us bring exactly the same outcome here sooner or later. Our central bank follows the lead of the Fed nine times out of ten. This is no exception. Not different this time. The next few years will see the cost of money rise – perhaps more vigorously now that the American president has squished Iran and jacked crude.

Current odds of rate hikes here, by the way are as follows: 95% for two additional increases by the end of the year. The prime rate by Christmas will then be a hair under 4%, and most HELOCs will rise to almost 5%. The five-year fixed (posted) mortgage rate will also be 5%, and the Bank of Canada benchmark rate (for the stress test) will be about 5.8%. What a shocking increase since mortgages were being dished out everywhere at 2% last spring.

So what?

So, payments on a $500,000 mortgage would jump from $2,100 a month to $3,139. Ouch. But, you cry, nobody actually pays the stress test rate. Borrowers just have to qualify as if rates were actually that high. So stop scaring us, dude!

True enough. The stress test requires any new borrower (or renewers changing banks) to prove they can handle a loan at that level, which means they still get the bank’s retail rate – but the amount of credit they’re offered is reduced. Thus a family with a $100,000 income and $50,000 to put down on a property that could have borrowed $545,000 last spring may soon qualify for a mortgage of only $367,500. They’ll be shopping for a $400,000 house, not one listed for $600,000.

That’s why rates matter. Just as low rates inflated real estate, so higher ones will deflate it. Ironically, the more inflation an economy generates, the more upward pressure there is on the cost of money. Those pressures are now building. Look at the bonds. They’re pumped.

Meanwhile politicians make things worse, as this blog has tediously pointed out. Taxes are inflationary, too – like governments that raise unrealistic expectations. Too many Canadians are over-reaching for real estate, adding to over $2 trillion in borrowing, completely ignoring the train in the debt tunnel. Incredibly 12% of us are now sub-prime borrowers with credit so poor even [email protected] has given them the heave-ho. As the central banker said days ago, 8% owe 20% of all that money – and mostly they live in Toronto and Vancouver.

Even before the Iranian mistake it looked like the Fed would raise rates 7 more times before this cycle has peaked – if history’s any guide. That probably means four or five here, so you can do that math. It’s the perfect storm – an indebted nation, incompetent leaders, regulatory overkill, rising rates, and the kind of envy-based generational warfare on display here yesterday. Why the children would want to own inflated, costly, indebted, imperiled assets like houses is beyond me.

196 comments ↓

#1 Caleb Landry on 05.09.18 at 4:18 pm

At social gatherings in Vancouver, people are finally saying things like “we’ve had our place listed for a couple months, I thought it would have sold by now” – these are people that just plunked $2.5m down on a new house and need the capital from their townhome to make the deal work. Bought it for $700k asking well over double a few years later and can’t believe that they aren’t getting multiple offers… It’s just a matter of time now that it all shakes itself out. For first time in years, nice liveable homes in Kitsilano and Dunbar are being listed for less than $2m. Still outrageous, but a year and a half ago they all would have sold for $2.5-2.7m. If interest rates keep clawing forward and the US stock market goes for a shit, the bottom is going to drop out of this. Bridgewater is now net short the market – wonder if they know something everyone else doesn’t know… If only the racket of sucking foreign money in to our country and central bankers force feeding debt on citizens around the world wasn’t the main playbook – we might have a viable economy that wasn’t going to take us all down with it. Lessons to be learned??? I doubt it.

#2 Honey Dripper on 05.09.18 at 4:18 pm

So, don’t fight the FED, right? Bonds yields will be goosed higher.

#3 Renter 4 Life on 05.09.18 at 4:20 pm

First – FINALLY!!!

#4 Crash N Dash on 05.09.18 at 4:21 pm

Last one out of Canada – turn out the lights

#5 Kumar on 05.09.18 at 4:28 pm

So glad I placed bets on both cryptocurrency and owning land. Cash is worthless and inflated

#6 Catalyst on 05.09.18 at 4:28 pm

Governments are going to have a tough time funding these deficits with yields rising and maybe a credit downgrade or two.

I’m not sure I agree with mortgage testing set at 50% higher than current rates. ($2,100>$3,139) It seems too shocking a change to a r/e market that was already cracking. I think 1% actual rate is plenty given other risk management guidelines (Max TDSR and Amortization restrictions)

#7 SandyM on 05.09.18 at 4:29 pm

“Look at the bonds. They’re pumped.”
—-
Please explain? The bond ETFs (XCB, ZMP for example) look like losers right now…

#8 jess on 05.09.18 at 4:38 pm

energy transfer partners

Louisiana State Court Declares Bayou Bridge Pipeline Permit Illegal

A Louisiana judge recently ruled that the state regulators violated guidelines when it issued Energy Transfer Partners’ controversial Bayou Bridge pipeline a coastal use permit.

The permit was issued for the last 18-mile stretch of the fracked oil pipeline that would have run through the riverside town of St. James Parish, where dozens of refineries and industrial facilities are already fueling a public health crisis in the mostly African-American community. ”

https://www.ecowatch.com/bayou-bridge-pipeline-louisiana-2566981602.html

#9 Mark on 05.09.18 at 4:39 pm

Deflation is going to be a major factor as interest rates rise and credit contracts. Since peak real estate (2013), we have been suffering with major stagflation, setting up for the upcoming rounds of deflation.

#10 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 05.09.18 at 4:46 pm

Soon people will say “I should of sold when I had the chance” or you will hear people bragging how they “sold at the top of the housing bubble” and “anyone that is buying now is an idiot”. The only fools telling people to buy is you shady SHYSTER. It’s interesting how some realtors are saying we are in a bubble and prices need to come down. You won’t hear that from the dirty SHYSTERS who post daily on this blog. Enjoy the crash everyone! Happy Housing Crash Everyone! :-)

#11 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 05.09.18 at 4:49 pm

Also you DIRTY SHYSTERS laughed at Garth that rates will never go up since many will go bankrupt. Well rates are going up ALOT and will go much HIGHER and YES! many will go bankrupt including SHYSTERS themselves.

#12 Sprigg on 05.09.18 at 4:54 pm

Thanks again Vancouver Brit and everyone else for your help. I’m gonna start off with 50/50 and later on more towards more equity as i get more comfortable.

Thanks again for clarifying the re-balancing for me Vancouver Brit.

#13 Dave on 05.09.18 at 5:01 pm

With Oil on the rise will Alberta rebound? Will commercial real estate finally have occupants and prices will rise?

#14 Stan Brooks on 05.09.18 at 5:01 pm


#9 Mark on 05.09.18 at 4:39 pm
Deflation is going to be a major factor as interest rates rise and credit contracts. Since peak real estate (2013), we have been suffering with major stagflation, setting up for the upcoming rounds of deflation.

This can’t be Mark, even he is not that stupid.

What deflation with oil going up, just starting the ascent actually with much more to come and with rates increasing to match the inflation?

Stagflation stands for inflation accompanied by stagnation.

Please take your pills.
As for bond yields, just wait, this is only the beginning.
8 % anyone?

#15 SimplyPut7 on 05.09.18 at 5:18 pm

In Toronto, the big banks have also started refusing to finance condos that are less than 500 sq ft. I have coworker looking for a condo and their mortgage broker told them they won’t qualify for the mortgage if the condo is under 500 sq ft. And if the condo is over 500 sq ft they would have to have a down payment of 20% or greater to afford a condo in Toronto today (400k – 600k, for a starter condo). Broker also said they would qualify for more money if they buy a house.

Looks like those speculators in Toronto with the 400 sq ft studio condos will have trouble unloading those units in the future, if buyers can’t get a mortgage to buy them.

#16 Aren on 05.09.18 at 5:18 pm

bank of canada moves qualifying rate up 20 bps to 5.34%, 1st move since January, this is huge!

#17 Specu-Renter on 05.09.18 at 5:25 pm

With first time buyers squeezed out of the bottom of the market, they have to live somewhere. And that means they will rent, increasing demand and putting even more pressure on limited rental stock.

In south Vancouver Island, people are already charging more in rent than a mortgage/property tax/and insurance payment is for the value of the home. Landlords are asking and getting 2500 plus for a 500k house.

Gee, it sure was wise to be a specu-renter waiting on the sidelines right? As the bottom rung of the market is wiped away, you can look forward to years of increased rent as people clamour for any available housing.

If the bust takes several more years, then those renters that stayed on the sidelines as prices rose and as prices dropped will have paid far more in housing costs than the owners of a house who rode the same wave.

Ouch – that specu-renting will cost you!

#18 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 05.09.18 at 5:27 pm

#9 Mark on 05.09.18 at 4:39 pm
Deflation is going to be a major factor as interest rates rise and credit contracts. Since peak real estate (2013), we have been suffering with major stagflation, setting up for the upcoming rounds of deflation.
…………………………..

I just have to know…..is that indica or sativa? I just gotta try some.

#19 tccontrarian on 05.09.18 at 5:31 pm

“Even before the Iranian mistake…”

Not a ‘mistake’ – the arms dealers need a market to sell their product. El Presidente is the front-man for these entities.

“…it looked like the Fed would raise rates 7 more times before this cycle has peaked – if history’s any guide. That probably means four or five here, so you can do that math. It’s the perfect storm – an indebted nation, incompetent leaders, regulatory overkill, rising rates, and the kind of envy-based generational warfare on display here yesterday. Why the children would want to own inflated, costly, indebted, imperiled assets like houses is beyond me.”
————————————————————

Perhaps a case to buy some gold – if history is a guide!
As well, COT data suggests higher prices for precious metals. Commercial traders are the ‘smart money’, just in case anyone is wondering!
Speculators, on the other hand, are mostly momentum traders who care not for fundamentals.

TCC

#20 The Technical Analyst, CSTA, CPD on 05.09.18 at 5:32 pm

“So if you think gas prices are crazy now, just wait.”

One of the main drivers of Canadian gas prices is that most of Canadian oil is refined in the USA. That Canadian oil coming back into Canada is priced in USD. With the USD at roughly 1.285 CAD, that adds 28.5% to the cost of gas, add in Canadian Carbon Taxing and we get where we are today.

With oil increasing in value, the CAD will increase in value as well, offsetting gasoline prices. You can thank the Canadian Gov’t for the added Carbon Taxes.

In sum, it is the exchange rates and CAD oil refined in the USA that effect gas prices more than the cost of oil.

If you want to hedge, buy ETF:

ZEO

#21 Yvrmc on 05.09.18 at 5:44 pm

I’m off to Europe for two months in two weeks so thought it would be good to have a backup credit card to my Visa. Applied to BofM for a master card . I have more than 1.5 million in cash,investments and pensions . I have zero debt of any kind . I own no RE . Monthly income is net $4500. Pay my Visa off every Monday morning like clockwork . Just received a letter from BOM declining to give me a credit card … wtf ! Who says credit isn’t tightening up ….

#22 David on 05.09.18 at 5:46 pm

Garth, you keep getting the stress test wrong. For most borrowers (other than gta borrowers at max debt servicing) the reduction in mortgage needed to pass stress test is much smaller than you suggest. Please show your homework. If your stressed GDS is 42%, you just have to get down to 39%. Plus many lenders can go 42% since no prescribed limit.

#23 Yvrmc on 05.09.18 at 5:47 pm

Follow up , I went to Costco with my gf and she suggested I get a Costco MasterCard. Filled out the paperwork and received a card 3-4 days later… guess it’s only the banks who are in panic mode …

#24 Happy penguins on 05.09.18 at 5:48 pm

Mark on 05.09.18 at 4:39 pm
Deflation is going to be a major factor as interest rates rise and credit contracts. Since peak real estate (2013), we have been suffering with major stagflation, setting up for the upcoming rounds of deflation.
..

You are stunning beauty of an ignoramus

#25 Doghouse Dweller on 05.09.18 at 5:51 pm

#7 SandyM

When bonds are pumped (yield Up) prices are dumped (value Down).
If you owned individual bonds or GIC`s you could hold them to maturity and get your original capital back plus interest. So the day to day price is irrelevant.
Bond funds on the other hand never mature, so they loose when rates pump and force you to dump at a loss.

#26 Smoking Man on 05.09.18 at 5:54 pm

Let’s not forget usdcad long is holding up quite well in spite of the surging price of oil.

Fx market is saying the Canada economy is doomed now that the govt is moving to full on communism.

Got to hand it to Trump. Ramps up oil exports, then shut off the taps to Iran Oil “compition” and is absolutely laughing his ass off at T2 who is dilabartly sabatoging our oil exports…..

Leave the lights on when you exit Canada. Bill is not going to get paid anyway.

#27 Ex-Cowtown on 05.09.18 at 5:54 pm

The only way Trump killing the Iranian deal could be viewed as bad is if it was real. The Iranian deal belongs in the same category as:

1. Piltdown Man
2. Sasquatch
3. Y2K
4. Cheap and abundant solar power
5. Hillary’s clean bill of health
6. Stormy Daniels not being in for Democrat donor’s multi-million $$ payday
7. Russian Collusion
8. David Suzuki’s 1970’s campaign against the Coming Ice Age
9. David Suzuki’s 2000’s campaign against the Coming Global Warming.
10. Anything on CNN

Trump’s big challenge is that so many people are heavily invested in the chimera of the Iran deal. Fortunately, Trump is the Honey Badger of politics; Honey badger don’t give a #$%^.

Oil is going to where it would have been if Obama and his minions had anything other than a passing acquaintance with reality.

#28 Brian1 on 05.09.18 at 5:57 pm

Who’s side are you on anyway. It is war now or later.

#29 MF on 05.09.18 at 5:58 pm

Iranian mistake? Subtle but incorrect.

That Iran deal was bad. Everyone knew it but we wanted it to work so it stayed.

Did the situation in Syria improve? No
Did the Iranian nuclear program stall? No
Are the militias still armed, funded and looking to instigate violence wherever they can? Yes

The hope is the new Iran deal that Trump will negotiate will actually address the massive elephant in the room: Iran’s support of regional militias whose sole purpose is to instigate violence and deflect.

Only when that issue gets addressed will any lasting peace occur.

Bet on Hamas and Hezbollah trying everything they can to start a conflict with Israel or Saudi Arabia. Then everyone can blame Trump. The next few months are critical.

MF

#30 Newcomer on 05.09.18 at 6:00 pm

That all sounds great, but I was surprised by:
Meanwhile politicians make things worse, as this blog has tediously pointed out. Taxes are inflationary, too…

Aren’t we all desperately trying to stoke inflation? Isn’t the lack of inflation the horrible problem that central banks have been grappling with for a decade? If taxes are inflationary, it’s hard to see them as bad. I know that you can have too much of a good thing, but inflation is the spice that makes working for a living and taking risks more palatable. We could use some.

#31 Rexx Rock on 05.09.18 at 6:03 pm

I don’t know?The highly respected USA radio host and NY times best selling author said Trump may be the best president we will ever see in our life time.You can always count on Micheal Savage to bring you the honest truth to the airwaves.To bad Canada doesn’t broadcast him but we all know free speech isn’t allowed Canuckistan.

#32 Keep raising rates !!!!! on 05.09.18 at 6:10 pm

Increase yields .

This way decrease need for market exposure . Just livin off the yield shield . Playing out perfectly

Inflate baby !!

#33 Michael King on 05.09.18 at 6:10 pm

This Vancouver Kitsilano condo has been on the market for a month and just sold for 515k. Below the asking price but more than the summer of 2016 initial asking price of 499k. Back then the condo did not sell after being on the market for three months and the asking price being lowered to 448k. At least for condos, the Vancouver madness continues.
https://www.rew.ca/properties/R2256743/203-2370-w-2nd-avenue-vancouver-bc

#34 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 05.09.18 at 6:13 pm

Almost half of Central Okanagan renters are spending more than they can afford to keep a roof over their heads.

New data from the Canadian Rental Housing Index shows 46 per cent of households here spend more than 30 per cent of their income on rent and utilities.

The average rent is also higher than the provincial average, coming in at $1,184 a month compared to $1,148 province-wide.

According to the BC Non-Profit Housing Association, the data show “a growing number” of families and individuals are “at a crisis level of spending and at risk of homelessness,” and that spending more than what’s affordable “has become the new normal” for many.

#35 Terry on 05.09.18 at 6:19 pm

“When Donald Trump unwisely blew up the Iran deal this week,”

Nothing unwise about it. It was a bad deal negotiated by the worst U.S. President ever to ever hold office! Trump once again is correcting for past Presidents mistakes.

#36 VICTORIA TEA PARTY on 05.09.18 at 6:22 pm

THE TRUMPSTER/MR. MARKET…ONE AND THE SAME

I think for the US to back out of the Iran nuke deal was done because the other signatories apparently could not find out what the Iranians were actually up to in those underground tunnels.

So what does the world want, ignorance or certainty? Hope the latter results. There will be another deal, sometime.

IN THE MEANTIME…

If world oil prices go up, so what, they go up.

If Canada had its act together we’d be receiving huge additional revenues from the sales of our oil.

But no.

We suck up to lying environmental groups funded in whole or in part by the big American environmental outfits.

The result?

We will be unable to protect ourselves from the ravages of both higher oil prices and interest rates along with resultant inflation.

We’ll get what we deserve alright.

Another nail in the coffin for our disappearing middle class.

US WILL BE LESS AFFECTED BY HIGHER OIL PRICES

At least the Yanks are now NET EXPORTERS of oil/natty gas for the first time since I don’t know when. That reality will shield consumers somewhat.

Also, their jobless rate is at historic lows as opposed to Canada’s which are not.

MORE TO COME

Now we await the outcome of NAFTA, and whatever Mr. Market, I mean the Trumpster, ALSO has in mind for the rest of us in the Great White North.

With the Paris climate accords deal in basic tatters, what the hell?

Why be patsies for the Al Gores of this world?

They still fly around in their executive jets and live large at their mansions. They’re the modern-day snake-oil salesmen and women, selling climatic dreams and unicorn farms.

#37 Fake News Again on 05.09.18 at 6:26 pm

Lorne on 05.09.18 at 4:52 pm
#177 Fake News Again on 05.09.18 at 12:00 pm
Conn Smythe
#143 crowdedelevatorfartz

“Ummm , I hate to disagree but most of the teachers I have met are in it for the garanteed money($75k/year starting out?), the job security that unionization bring and , oh yes, almost forgot, that excellent garanteed pension $$$$$”

Sadly you are correct for the majority of teachers and I know this first hand better than most….

______

Absolutely true. The school we have our kids at is falling apart. They are ‘raising money” all the time. But yet when you include the “Gold Plated Pension” all the teachers there make over 100K.

It has not been “about the kids” for a long long time.
…….
If it is such a great deal, why don’t you go to university for 5 years and join the crowd?? Of course, you might have to try to actually teach something to 30, 14 year olds!

_____

1. I will never work for Govt because I am not a hypocrite

2. WHY do Govt Workers like teachers, nurses, police always talk like they are “so hard done by”? YOU VOLUNTEERED for the job for the cash. Don’t lie. Its why you did it. You think that Oil Rig Pigs, Construction Workers or Safe injection site VOLUNTEERS are of “Less Worth/Value” than your poor entitled govt ass?

Again……Govt Workers wonder why the plebs are always so pissed off……

#38 R Vanzo on 05.09.18 at 6:28 pm

Iranian mistake in your opinion. But I bet you called the way this administration was dealing with North Korea a mistake too. Time will tell. Meanwhile, the already broke Iranian economy will be even more broken. And the US will not accept any refugees from Iran. That is, unless they come to the negotiation table as they should: begging.

#39 MSM-Free Zone on 05.09.18 at 6:30 pm

Just curious, has DoFo’s fake reporter been able to interview DoFo’s fake supporters?

Inquiring minds need to know. So few choices, so little time…

#40 westcoastguy on 05.09.18 at 6:30 pm

https://www.myrealtycheck.ca/

The myrealtycheck.ca website says that the average May asking price drop in Richmond is more than -6% and the average dollar amount asking price drop in Langley is over -200k?

And May is just 9 days old? Is this for real?
June will be super scary for sure …

#41 Penny Henny on 05.09.18 at 6:37 pm

#3 Renter 4 Life on 05.09.18 at 4:20 pm
First – FINALLY!!!
////////////

Oh my, the irony.
A self proclaimed renter for life thinks they are first.
Wrong in so many ways.

#42 renter in Surrey on 05.09.18 at 6:39 pm

TD 6 years fixed is just 3.77%

https://www.tdcanadatrust.com/products-services/banking/mortgages/mortgage-rates.jsp

#43 Reynolds531 on 05.09.18 at 6:41 pm

#21 turned down for credit card

Paying too often on a credit card harms your score. I would pay off my Canadian tire mc whenever I used it. They lowered my credit limit.

#44 joblo on 05.09.18 at 6:41 pm

Incompetent leaders you say?

Mister speaker “for 10 years the Harper government …blah blah blah”

Mister speaker for 2.5 years I have been saying “For 10 years the Harper blah blah blah”

Mister Speaker when I win the next election I will continue with” For 10 years the Harper blah blah blah”

now that’s competence

#45 God bless the president of the United States of America on 05.09.18 at 6:44 pm

A real man.
A real country with it’s own core Identity.
God bless AMERICA and the American President.

#46 Mark on 05.09.18 at 6:48 pm

#9 Mark on 05.09.18 at 4:39 pm
Deflation is going to be a major factor as interest rates rise and credit contracts. Since peak real estate (2013), we have been suffering with major stagflation, setting up for the upcoming rounds of deflation.

///////////////////

Please ignore this earlier comment as peak real estate was not 2013 as I have stated many times before. It was actually 2009 for Toronto and Vancouver. I don’t know how I missed this fact earlier but I must say that my Spidey senses are truly tingling tonight.

#47 Camille on 05.09.18 at 6:50 pm

Mean reverting from yesterday’s post are we?

#48 renter in Surrey on 05.09.18 at 6:52 pm

#40 westcoastguy

… average dollar amount asking price drop in Langley is over -200k?

——————————————————————-

nope, decent houses are still $1mil+

https://www.zolo.ca/langley-real-estate/7238-196-street
https://www.zolo.ca/langley-real-estate/7238-196-street
https://www.zolo.ca/langley-real-estate/27161-35b-avenue
https://www.zolo.ca/langley-real-estate/9421-202a-street
https://www.zolo.ca/langley-real-estate/9264-203a-street

#49 jess on 05.09.18 at 6:53 pm

shysters access ?

$4, 425,033.46
http://www.msnbc.com/the-last-word/watch/avenatti-suspicious-payments-to-trump-lawyer-1228798531802

#50 JF on 05.09.18 at 6:57 pm

Garth, what does [email protected] mean ? Long time reader, never bothered to ask, but tonight is the night.

#51 John on 05.09.18 at 7:00 pm

Not sure that I understand how taxes are inflationary. They take money out of the system, thus less consumption/demand/pricing power for sellers.

Maybe it’s just been too long since undergrad economics.

#52 Linda M Youell on 05.09.18 at 7:00 pm

Foreign ownership of condos in the Miami market

Wall Street Journal, Wed 09 May 2018, pB6:
Lending venture aids Miami’s condo market, by Peter Grant

“A real-estate investment group has rolled out a $300 million lending business targeting foreign investors who already have made big down payments on units in Miami condominium projects but prefer to borrow the balance when the units are delivered.

“Most of the borrowers were investors from countries such as Venezuela, Argentina and Brazil, who earlier had put down at least half of their units’ costs, said [the] managing principal of [the investment firm].”

“In Miami, foreign demand has helped fuel a condo boom. Since 2012, 6300 new units have been delivered in the downtown Miami market, according to Integra Realty Resources, a real-estate tracking firm.

“About 5000 units are under construction and 864 condos are in the planning stage, Integra said.”

#53 Lisa on 05.09.18 at 7:08 pm

Sorry, Garth. The Iran deal was garbage.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailywire.com/news/30415/day-iran-deal-died-ben-shapiro%3famp

#54 Shawn Allen on 05.09.18 at 7:10 pm

Oil?

As Garth alludes, oil is a major fuel for the economy. Cheaper oil causes the economy to burn bright. More expensive oil causes the economy to cool.

But that reminds me, it is credit that is the grease of the economy. If credit tightens the economy can really seize up. Think about what economic activity happens these days without credit being involved.

There is not a lot of new investment in the economy that happens without borrowed money being involved.

How many cars are bought without credit?

How many major consumer purchases of any kind are done without the involvement of credit?

How many businesses expand without the use of credit?

#55 Big Kahuna on 05.09.18 at 7:21 pm

You can tell from all the Iran deal comments here that the corrupt MSM is having a harder time every year keeping the truth from the public (or at least the awake public).

#56 ANON on 05.09.18 at 7:22 pm

Oil means inflation.

Making promises (credit, debt, whatever definition bakes on’s noodle) means inflation. :)
High oil prices solve inflation rather quickly, and very unpleasantly. They did the last time, but this ain’t no 2008, it’s ten years later, and a few trillions more promises here and there. And everywhere.

#57 S.Bby on 05.09.18 at 7:27 pm

#48 renter in Surrey on 05.09.18 at 6:52 pm

nope, decent houses are still $1mil+

but all of these are under a $mil and none of these are selling at ask …. nice try though.

#58 Josh Welsha on 05.09.18 at 7:28 pm

I hope gas prices go to $2.00 a liter by the first week of June-2018 so all the cap and trade, H.S.T etc. will push Ontarians to the brink courtesy of Liberals.

#59 Ian on 05.09.18 at 7:30 pm

Mark is the Kelvin scale of real estate. You know how Celsius is Kelvin -273.15 degrees? Peak Mark real estate is -4 years.

Inflation is raging, dogs. And it’s not even close to being measured accurately. It’s way higher than government figures, and every citizen knows this when they go to buy shit.

The US Fed is now using the word ‘symmetrical’ to describe their willingness to let inflation run up, which is one of many reasons that should give people pause who expect rise after rise in rates.

I don’t see it. Atlanta Fed GDP for Q2 will be marked way down again. Powell will help Trumpy by keeping rates low. Give me a bad US stock market in the next few weeks and that’s the excuse that will be trotted out.

Canazuela is in for a big economic contraction too. Real estate making up 1/3 of Ontario’s economy? That will turn out just great a year or two out.

I don’t know how Ford deals with this 11.6bln structural deficit, but someone has to and it better be double quick.
Play time is over. It’s time to stop fiddling with the puppy and fix this debacle.

Also, WTF with the media describing today’s US 10 year note auction as ‘strong’?! Yields were above 3% most of the day. Most of the asks in the competitive auction were hit at 2.99%. Wtf media?!?

#60 Vanecdotal on 05.09.18 at 7:39 pm

Re: yesterday’s post, some context. From Glowball, once the (unofficial) propaganda arm of RE cartel/BC Liberals. Tone has shifted.

“The BC NDP’s housing moves are so popular, even BC Liberal supporters like them: poll”
https://globalnews.ca/news/4196524/bc-ndp-housing-bc-liberals-poll/

“The number of past BC Liberal supporters who like the housing measures is “significant,” Angus Reid Institute executive director Shachi Kurl told Global News.

And the poll results are a sign that people’s feelings on housing affordability aren’t “totally politically or ideologically driven,” she added.”

Also: https://globalnews.ca/news/4196392/horgan-school-tax-revolt/

“[Take the] example of a home on the West Side of Vancouver that have seen their property values go up just last year almost six percent on a $3 million home. That’s a realized gain of almost $200,000, and the tax burden will be about a thousand dollars,” Horgan said.

“If you just took the gain you could have realized last year, you can pay the school tax for 200 years and still be ahead.”

Honest question, am wondering why it’s ok to suggest the renter class leave their home city/long-time adopted city and find cheaper housing elsewhere, but not ok to suggest the same for the ‘house poor’ homeowner/pensioner sitting on a massive tax free windfall do the same? From a purely fiscal standpoint, in this example where in a society does it make the most sense to incentivize / discourage economic activity to encourage sustainable economic growth and a happy population?

#61 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.09.18 at 7:42 pm

@#50 JF
“Garth, what does [email protected] mean ?
++++++
Total Nutjob Lunatics at The Bar

#62 Ian on 05.09.18 at 7:44 pm

I have a great inflation story for you dogs.

Peter Schiff was reviewing a government report that said newspaper cost (meaning to the end consumer / reader) had risen 30% in 10 years.

So he went to the library to find microfilm or whatever from ten years ago of a cross section of various newspapers, where you can read the price on the front.

Guess what? The increase was 130% in ten years, not 30%.

Don’t believe any of the government figures on inflation. It’s all dog poo.

#63 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 05.09.18 at 7:53 pm

When Donald Trump unwisely blew up the Iran deal this week, it sure didn’t help your mortgage. Oil jumped a few bucks on the news, topped seventy dollars and convinced some people it’s on the way to eighty or even ninety by year’s end. So if you think gas prices are crazy now, just wait.
……………………..”?

It was a bad deal. Obummer made that deal all by his own self because he desperately wanted a foreign policy accomplishment. He knew it would not get congressional approval so he forced it through on his own. I give Trump credit for shitcanning it.

#64 Professor SX on 05.09.18 at 8:00 pm

#61 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.09.18 at 7:42 pm

@#50 JF
“Garth, what does [email protected] mean ?
++++++
Total Nutjob Lunatics at The Bar
..

AKA…. Smoking Man

#65 renter in Surrey on 05.09.18 at 8:02 pm

#57 S.Bby on 05.09.18 at 7:27 pm

but all of these are under a $mil and none of these are selling at ask …. nice try though.

————————————————————————————————————

yeah, yeah, they are $998K, under a million, you are right (though some of them are over mil)
we are splitting hairs here

when I see house like that for $699 I believe something changing
(actually $699K would be $299K too much)

#66 Guillaume on 05.09.18 at 8:02 pm

#29 MF You should stop drinking Nato’s Kool-Aid…. Educate yourself from different perspectives than the one from the warmongers in DC and Tel Aviv…

#67 Eco Capitalist on 05.09.18 at 8:13 pm

@ #61 crowdedelevatorfartz

Now now, don’t be spreading misinformation. The MSM are doing plenty of that already.

@ #50 JF

[email protected] is The Nice Lady at The Bank.

#68 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 05.09.18 at 8:13 pm

BMO is now offering a five-year variable closed mortgage rate of 2.45 per cent until the end of May.

“Our five year variable rate is reflective of the competitive environment and is a great rate for customers seeking a variable mortgage,” said a BMO spokesperson in an emailed statement.

“Customers that choose this product can also renew to a fixed rate mortgage with the same or longer term at any time with no fees.”

RBC late last month said it will reduce its offered rate for a five-year variable closed mortgage to 3.3 per cent from 3.45 per cent.

TD Bank last month cut its five-year variable closed rate offering for new and renewed mortgages earlier this month to 2.85 per cent which is 75 basis points less than its prime rate. Previously it was 2.95 per cent.

And why is it you think they are pushing variable rate loans? – Garth

#69 Editrix on 05.09.18 at 8:18 pm

High oil prices means Alberta’s economy will be better.

#70 Raging Ranter on 05.09.18 at 8:19 pm

#30 Newcomer, forget what you learned in ECON 101. (Sounds like you learned from the same crap textbooks I did.) Inflation is not a good thing, and does not encourage sensible risk taking. If anything, it encourages asset bubbles as people try to front-run inflation and benefit from it.

#71 Dongareff on 05.09.18 at 8:20 pm

He he. I see the hasbara gnomes are very active re: Iran

#72 Tony on 05.09.18 at 8:30 pm

Re: #13 Dave on 05.09.18 at 5:01 pm

No Alberta home prices are still in free-fall mode. Canadian oil is still sold a a deep discount to west Texas Crude. Albertans say if the NDP loses the next election home prices will get crushed due to massive job cuts. Home prices may stop falling in Alberta if oil hits the 100 dollar American mark again.

#73 Trojan House on 05.09.18 at 8:32 pm

#14 Stan Brooks on 05.09.18 at 5:01 pm
#24 Happy penguins on 05.09.18 at 5:48 pm

I think Mark may be right. You guys look at only the domestic economy and forget that the whole world is connected economically. Rising rates will make the US dollar strengthen, which increases the cost of money, which in turn will make it more difficult for emerging markets to finance their debt. It’s like a contagion – the only question is: Who will be patient zero who will start the debt crisis?

#74 Mark on 05.09.18 at 8:34 pm

”#59 Ian on 05.09.18 at 7:30 pm
Mark is the Kelvin scale of real estate. You know how Celsius is Kelvin -273.15 degrees? Peak Mark real estate is -4 years.”

Anyone who ademently follows, and listens, to the great prophet Ross Clerk knows peak real estate was 2013. Go listen to his podcasts yourself, he is just incredible, maybe the most incredible.

#75 mike from mtl on 05.09.18 at 8:37 pm

#62 Ian on 05.09.18 at 7:44 pm
…Don’t believe any of the government figures on inflation. It’s all dog poo.
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Of course, anyone who’s been paying attention the last two decades knows this is total fiction.

#76 Tony on 05.09.18 at 8:40 pm

Re: #59 Ian on 05.09.18 at 7:30 pm

The month of May has generally been one of if not the best months of the year for stocks. Each year I only play the month of May long for stocks. Each year in the future you’ll see May will always be the best month of the year for U.S. stocks.

#77 Mark on 05.09.18 at 8:41 pm

“#33 Michael King on 05.09.18 at 6:10 pm
This Vancouver Kitsilano condo has been on the market for a month and just sold for 515k. Below the asking price but more than the summer of 2016 initial asking price of 499k. Back then the condo did not sell after being on the market for three months and the asking price being lowered to 448k. At least for condos, the Vancouver madness continues.
https://www.rew.ca/properties/R2256743/203-2370-w-2nd-avenue-vancouver-bc”

Further proof of stagnation leading to deflation. 2013 was peak re, I can guarantee an identical same unit would sold for about the same.

#78 MSM-Free Zone on 05.09.18 at 8:46 pm

“…#45 God bless the president of the United States of America on 05.09.18 at 6:44 pm…”
__________________________________

Lots of freedum-luvin, guvment-hatin, bumpstock-packin, banjo-pickin, mission-accomplishin, god-fearin, evangelical hypocrites posting here tonight.

Truly frightening.

#79 Terry on 05.09.18 at 8:47 pm

and in other news ………………

The weather forecast for the Victoria day weekend calls for rain, blowing rain and cold temperatures ……….. so dress warm everybody. LOL

#80 Honey Dripper on 05.09.18 at 8:49 pm

FYI

[email protected] = The Nice Lady at the Bank

#81 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.09.18 at 9:01 pm

@#67 Eco Capitalist
[email protected] is The Nice Lady at The Bank.”
+++++
Arrrrgh! Dammit!
I could have had some fun with that!
You Eco Millenial Terrorists ruin everything with the truth!
What do you do for fun at parties?
Rinse the empty bottles and put them back in their appropriate cases?
Tell people how many starving third world children you could feed for the price of a bottle of good wine?
Damn honesty.
Ruins everything…….

#82 Trumpocalypse2018 on 05.09.18 at 9:09 pm

HOLY SH#T!!!!

IRAN FIRING ON ISRAEL RIGHT NOW!!!!

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-44063022

Those people praising Trump have no clue what this is going to lead to.

PREPARE.

NOW.

#83 When Will They Raise Rates? on 05.09.18 at 9:10 pm

#18 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 05.09.18 at 5:27 pm

#9 Mark on 05.09.18 at 4:39 pm
Deflation is going to be a major factor as interest rates rise and credit contracts. Since peak real estate (2013), we have been suffering with major stagflation, setting up for the upcoming rounds of deflation.
…………………………..

I just have to know…..is that indica or sativa? I just gotta try some.

——-

Crack

#84 Deplorable Dude on 05.09.18 at 9:14 pm

#63 Four Fingers Watson….’It was a bad deal. Obummer made that deal all by his own self because he desperately wanted a foreign policy accomplishment. He knew it would not get congressional approval so he forced it through on his own. I give Trump credit for shitcanning it.”

Same for the ‘Paris Accord’ agreement. Which wasn’t called a ‘Treaty’, as doing so would mean Congress would have had to vote on it, and Obama knew it would never pass, so he forced it thru unilaterally.

The globalists are lamenting the loss of all their lucrative trade deals with Iran….along with all the back handers….

Trump is a bull in a China Shop….just look at what his blustering has done in North Korea…

…oh wait…..

#85 For those about to flop... on 05.09.18 at 9:22 pm

#168 Thanks Flop on 05.09.18 at 11:12 am
To For Those About to Flop. Really appreciate your posts they are generally the best part of this comment section. Very valuable. Thank you.

//////////////////

That’s nice of you to say.

I wouldn’t go as far to say that they are generally the best part of the comment section ,but I try to contribute original material and help people see what the gang a few doors down at howmuch are up to

While I am writing I might as well ask the person last night who called themselves a Dirty Shyster if they would mind putting up what 1870 Sasamat Street sold for recently.

I haven’t found a reliable person to help me report in real time.

The Hunt for Pink October continues…

M43BC

#86 Leo Trollstoy on 05.09.18 at 9:24 pm

Oil means inflation. It pops the cost of most everything. Turning off Iran’s big pipe was the last thing needed, now that bond yields have been swelling, central banks hiking and Canadians dealing with an epic debt overhang…

Bingo bongo bang!

I’ve been right so much that I can’t hadlenit

Who said deflation was a myth and were in an inflationary environment?

We said rates would go up?

Who said gold sucks?

You’re welcome!

#87 Leo Trollstoy on 05.09.18 at 9:26 pm

Why the children would want to own inflated, costly, indebted, imperiled assets like houses is beyond m

Cuz ppl below 40 is dumb

Dum as bricks

#88 CKNW 980 on 05.09.18 at 9:27 pm

Absolute brawls on the radio call in line today. All afternnon.

Boomers, Gen Xers, Millenials just going at it, yelling, getting fired up and 980 is just stoking it.

Bad gov = civil unrest. These people in person would be swinging at each other.

“I work so hard to get to where I am, I had to walk through 10 feet of snow back in the day”

#89 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 05.09.18 at 9:30 pm

And why is it you think they are pushing variable rate loans? – Garth
…………………

People want cheap mortgage rates and are willing to take the risks and the banks are happy to oblige.

#90 MF on 05.09.18 at 9:33 pm

#66 Guillaume on 05.09.18 at 8:02 pm

I’m curious, why didn’t you include Riyadh in your list of so-called “war mongers”?

You see, the overly simplified, anti western kool-aid you yourself appear to be drinking is about ten years past it’s due date.

We actually could have a real chance at peace here.

MF

#91 Creditguru on 05.09.18 at 9:37 pm

#21

You did not get a credit card,because your credit score is too low. Your score is not based on how much money you have but on your credit history which shows your ability to repay loans. Your credit history is non existent looking at your post. If you need a credit card for traveling get prepaid one and load amounts that you need. This card behaves exactly like an actual credit card where the card limit is set by yourself. You can add funds online anytime (if you link it with your online banking acc).
Someone here suggested that paying your card balance often lowers your credit score. This is completely untrue.
Don’t pay your balance once a week but pay off your cc before your statement date. So if your statement comes on 15th every month make sure your payment is posted before that date. Your statement will show zero . Your score will jump up.
Secondly go online and check what your credit score is. There are 2 companies in Canada that deal with that. And banks contact them to see your history. Some banks (the red one) let’s you check your score for free.

#92 april on 05.09.18 at 9:37 pm

#89 – because the market is slowing down…

#93 dr talc on 05.09.18 at 9:42 pm

all nuclear bomb film footage has been proven fake
Iran and its leaders are in the big club
the antagonism and provocation is fake
many Television Believers think nukes are real,
but they cant recognize dis or misinformation
delivered to them by msm, gov, and military

here’s a helpful question I always ask myself:

” They lie about everything, why would they tell the truth about this ?”

#94 TurnerNation on 05.09.18 at 9:46 pm

#21 Yvrmc I found your problem. You tried too hard son.
This is Kanada.

http://www.rbc.com/newcomers/credit-solutions.html

Get Your First Canadian Credit Card – No Credit History Required2
Start building your Canadian credit history today with an RBC® credit card today. No credit history is required 2. You can apply for an RBC Royal Bank® credit card – Visa‡ or Mastercard‡. Two of our most popular credit cards with newcomers are:

#95 For those about to flop... on 05.09.18 at 9:48 pm

#40 westcoastguy on 05.09.18 at 6:30 pm
https://www.myrealtycheck.ca/

The myrealtycheck.ca website says that the average May asking price drop in Richmond is more than -6% and the average dollar amount asking price drop in Langley is over -200k?

And May is just 9 days old? Is this for real?
June will be super scary for sure …

///:///////////

I will try to help you out the best I can.

I noticed the Langley number a couple of days ago and with only 27 price adjustments when someone does something like this below ,then things get skewed.

Or is that skewered.

Time for some kababs…

M43BC

19759 28 Avenue, Langley

Mar 9:$3,950,000
May 3: $1,500,000
Change: – 2450000.00 -62%

#96 TurnerNation on 05.09.18 at 9:52 pm

#71 Dongareff CNBC today rolled out some some hillarious propaganda footage of proported Iran burning a US flag. And chanting. ZOMG they had beads too. Beards!

#97 BlorgDorg on 05.09.18 at 10:08 pm

For anyone who, like Garth, can’t seem to understand where the mils are coming from, it’s simple: they just want the same things that their parents, the boomers, have (and had).

The boomers tell them to do the same things they once did, which is no longer possible because the world is vastly different now than it was then.

There are rich boomers, there are poor boomers. There are entitled millennials, there are successful millennials.

Perhaps a better question to be asking is whether the standard of living in Canada is going up or down, and fast enough or not.

#98 Spectacle on 05.09.18 at 10:15 pm

#50 JF on 05.09.18 at 6:57 pm
Garth, what does [email protected] mean ? Long time reader, never bothered to ask, but tonight is the night.

————————
Oh, it just means …Today, Nobody Laughs @ The Bar.

Or… The nice lady @ the bank. ( who isn’t ! )

#99 Dumbndumber on 05.09.18 at 10:42 pm

Why do all three child men federal leaders sound to me like teenage boys when they open their mouths.

#100 Eco Capitalist on 05.09.18 at 10:51 pm

@ #81 crowdedelevatorfartz

Actually, I’m a Gen Xer and the bottles can wait until the morning after.

As to the 3rd world, the second half of my alias believes that those children should either move or work hard to get ahead. The world does not owe anyone anything.

It’s government that ruins everything, not honesty. Think of everything the word “politics” implies. We need more honesty and less government.

#101 Dirty SHYSTER on 05.09.18 at 10:53 pm

For those about to flop…

3.9

#102 conan on 05.09.18 at 11:05 pm

“That Iran deal was bad. Everyone knew it but we wanted it to work so it stayed.”

I agree with Garth, and most of NATO, that pulling out was a “BAD’ idea.

It is going to lead to war, I think the Golan Heights is under attack as I type this.

When is comes to Global political BS, I try to think like a bouncer in a busy night club. I do not care who threw the last punch, it is who threw the first punch that I want to bounce out.

There is some history between US and Iran going back to the 1950’s and its not that great.
Plus, the US totally f’d it in Iraq. It has lead to all sorts of problems.

Stop drinking the FOX Koolaid. Maybe learn some history and expand your sources of news,

#103 Incredible on 05.09.18 at 11:09 pm

#74 Mark

You should look up that word in the dictionary, Mark.
‘Incredible’, as in: not credible.

#104 Fuzzy Camel on 05.09.18 at 11:11 pm

Yes Garth, Trump just lit the fuse for World War 3 in the middle east. Expect oil to double if Saudi Arabia and Iran start bombing each other.

US is going to hike rates to tame the inflation. Powell just told emerging markets ‘You’re on your own’. Can you say emerging debt crisis?

Canadians meanwhile are driving Dodge Ram 1500s 75km each way to work, with a $600k+ mortgage on a house an hour from work.

Now the kicker, get ready for a currency war later this year. As Powell raises rates, the USD will rally up. Everyone else’s currencies will tank. Trump will start tweeting about how unfair it is that the other countries are not raising rates and allowing their currency to devaluing, this giving them a huuuuge trade advantage, he’ll call it a currency war. He’ll probably threaten to cut trade unless countries around the world raise rates in unison. Canada will get whacked. Bad.

If you think the lefties hate Trump now, just wait. He’s about to cause a lot of pain to the world economy.

#105 NoName on 05.09.18 at 11:12 pm

What were they thinking

http://amp.timeinc.net/thedrive/news/20722/internet-revolts-after-couple-trades-in-husbands-dream-1966-ford-mustang-for-a-new-audi-s5?source=dam

#106 Protea on 05.09.18 at 11:13 pm

Iran in the US Backyard

When Donald Trump unwisely blew up the Iran deal this week, GT. Totally disagree with you on this subject. You and Chamberlain would have got on really well !!

Culturally, Iran has helped Hezbollah establish itself as the dominant force among Shia Muslim communities throughout Latin America, and has taken control of their mosques, schools and cultural institutions.

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/12268/iran-latin-america

#107 Long-Time Lurker on 05.09.18 at 11:14 pm

#60 Vanecdotal on 05.09.18 at 7:39 pm

Honest question, am wondering why it’s ok to suggest the renter class leave their home city/long-time adopted city and find cheaper housing elsewhere, but not ok to suggest the same for the ‘house poor’ homeowner/pensioner sitting on a massive tax free windfall do the same?

From a purely fiscal standpoint, in this example where in a society does it make the most sense to incentivize / discourage economic activity to encourage sustainable economic growth and a happy population?

>Rhetorical questions. What is fair?

Confiscating someone’s property so someone else can live there? Taxing someone on a windfall that hasn’t materialized until they have sold?

Can we achieve utopia?

Define happiness and how to measure it.

If your economy isn’t sustainable it’ll die on it’s own. Example: ghost towns.

#108 For those about to flop... on 05.09.18 at 11:16 pm

#100 Dirty SHYSTER on 05.09.18 at 10:53 pm
For those about to flop…

3.9

///////////////////////

Interesting,interesting!

So they paid 3.8 and the best part of 3 years later sold for 100k more before expenses.

One of my more educated assistants will probably have a crack at this one but Flop math says 330k loss if we add in the rest of the expenses and then a couple of percent each year for opportunities lost.

A construction worker with a conscience and a realtor with one as well.

We could do good things together…

M43BC

1870 Sasamat St. Van paid 3.8 June 2015 asking 4.25 ass 4.02

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/1870-sasamat-street

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAwMDAyQw==

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Feel free to make a donation.

Flop For Fox Fund…

http://www.terryfox.org/get-involved/ways-to-give/

#109 Doug in London on 05.09.18 at 11:23 pm

Garth, you’re totally WRONG about interest rates going up. Why? Because a lot of knowledgeable, well informed, and articulate commenters here say so. Here are some examples:

No interest rate increase in Canada, real estate will continue rising

Garth Sir, I apologize and again agree to disagree, but interest rates will not rise in near for seen future, at least next 15 years, for multiple reasons.
A) Govt will not want to be blamed and neither will want to lose on taxes.
B) For past 30 years, interest rates are in declining trajectory.
C) Canada will have a negative interest rate model adopted after next 5 years, and that will be kind of tax the rich.

If interest rates don’t climb then debt can be easily serviced so no falling prices, and interest rates aren’t going to climb meaningfully anytime soon, simple as that really !

Talking about interest rates, they keep falling as the 5, 10 and 30 year Canada yields are now 0.93%, 1.4%, 2.01%.
U.S. bond yields have also dropped a lot 5, 10, 30 years to 1.73%, 2.17%, 2.83% are much lower since months following the big hype over the U.S. election back in November-2016.
Now with the U.K. general election, just like last year, BREXIT crashed interest rates pushing the 30 year Canada bond yield down to 1.55% at time low.
Interest rates are going down and once people say they will go up and up, they are wrong for 30 years now and counting. Posted June 5/17

#110 burnaby guy on 05.09.18 at 11:24 pm

Garth, are you sure you’re right? You keep talking about inflation but 2013 peak/apex RE Mark keeps saying no inflation and we have deflation.
You posted several times RE peaked in 2017 but he said RE peaked in 2013. Are you sure you are right?
2013 peak / apex RE Mark must be right because he thinks he knows it all and everybody else is wrong. I better get my mouse ready because he’s gonna make a long post to say how right he is.

#111 Disgruntled on 05.09.18 at 11:42 pm

“odds of rate hikes here, by the way are as follows: 95% for two additional increases by the end of the year.”

Dream on Garth.

Those are market odds. I don’t gamble. – Garth

#112 the ryguy on 05.09.18 at 11:54 pm

And why is it you think they are pushing variable rate loans? – Garth
—————————————

Mmm hmm. Id bet the new mortgages are way down in the big 5. So lets get the last few suckers out there to make a 25 year commitment while we steadily increase the rates.

#113 Trump Bump on 05.10.18 at 12:06 am

#78 MSM-Free Zone on 05.09.18 at 8:46 pm
“…#45 God bless the president of the United States of America on 05.09.18 at 6:44 pm…”
__________________________________

Lots of freedum-luvin, guvment-hatin, bumpstock-packin, banjo-pickin, mission-accomplishin, god-fearin, evangelical hypocrites posting here tonight.

Truly frightening.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

It’s sad that you’re frightened and offended by people whose offence to your life is that they have views that are not consistent with yours. They have a word for that:

Intolerance. Think about that one a bit. Let it sink in.

I may not agree with you, but I’m not frightened of you. I tolerate your views without the need to oppose or silence them. By definition, that makes me tolerant. But you? Not so much. You need to work on that.

Try being open-minded enough to let someone whose opinions you dislike express them openly and not be frightened. It’s called living in freedom. Try it. You may like it.

#114 The Totally Unbiased, Highly Intelligent, Rational Observer on 05.10.18 at 12:38 am

“When Donald Trump unwisely blew up the Iran deal this week….”–GT

Looks like another typo there, Garth.

Surely you meant to say, “When Donald Trump wisely and courageously blew up the fatally flawed Iran deal this week before those sneaky terrorists could develop nukes and blow us up….”

This is why everybody luvs The Donald. He has all those important qualities that mere politicians totally lack these days: wisdom, courage, patriotism, and COMMON SENSE. He is, indeed, a very stable genius. And on top of all that, he is heavenly blessed and worldly wise!!!

Check out President Trump’s truly great speech about the truly bad Iran deal for yourself (12 minutes, 46 seconds):

Totally Awesome Trump Speech

#115 Newcomer on 05.10.18 at 1:10 am

#97 BlorgDorg on 05.09.18 at 10:08 pm
For anyone who, like Garth, can’t seem to understand where the mils are coming from, it’s simple: they just want the same things that their parents, the boomers, have (and had).
——

Ick! How boring. Whatever happened to sticking it to the man and changing the world. It’s very hard to have sympathy for people who have no creativity or imagination, but I am trying.

#116 Leichendiener on 05.10.18 at 1:42 am

How about [email protected]!

#117 Exodus2020 on 05.10.18 at 1:45 am

As I said before, history repeats itself so prepare for 1981-82 like interest spike! Not 20%, but a jump from 3% to 6% would be almost as painful as 8% to 20%.

Causes of 81-82:
Oil price shock
Big boomer generation putting pressure on wages
Preceded by a decade of loose monetary policy and low interest rates

See any similarities? Millennials will be demanding higher wages to afford cost of living, just wait!

#118 Oft deleted much maligned stock.picker on 05.10.18 at 1:47 am

Dude….don’t blame Trump for the oil price…..blame Trudeau for locking in millions of barrels a day. We don’t need Iran….but Trudau supports Iranian and middle East oil more than he does Canadian. The Iran deal was flawed from the get go…..Iran is a gong show of religious zealots. The Obama deal gave them the bomb in ten years. We have plenty of oil in Canada but Obama stabbed Canada oin the he back either KXL…..while at the same time finding no problem snging on New energy inf astructure in the US. He stabbed Israel in the back long his way out the door in favour of more terror in the Middle East. The Obama funded propaganda campaign against Canadian energy was false and disengenuous. Canada is left with a legacy of his false narrative. Iran is a really bad actor….so was Obama….let Trump do his job and fix it….the way he fixed N Korea…..with a big stick. Get rid of Trudeau idiocy and Canada’s oil will flow….making billions for us and ensuring balance in the market. Les learn to recognize the real bad guys and not the others who want us to not think for ourselves.

#119 Ulsterman on 05.10.18 at 1:58 am

#88 CKNW 980 “Absolute brawls on the radio call in line today. All afternnon. Boomers, Gen Xers, Millenials just going at it, yelling, getting fired up and 980 is just stoking it.

Please you enjoyed my show :) And yes i do realize my anonymous status is now gone. Oh well.

I emailed Lynda Steel a couple of days ago and she liked the comment. Invited me to a pre-recorded show today at 10:30am. Unfortunately of course i didn’t manage to get all my myth-busting comments across in the time available. As a Gen X i tried defending millennials from unfair criticism, but the foaming-at-the-mouth callers ignored the facts and resorted to “in my day i worked really hard, walking barefoot in snow, uphill both ways.” They didn’t want to hear about price-earnings ratios etc.

https://globalnews.ca/pages/audio-vault-cknw/

May 9th, 3pm, 6:30 mins on the scroll bar.

#120 jane24 on 05.10.18 at 2:04 am

No the problem is that the kids want today what it took their parents all their life to achieve. None of my kids would buy or live in their parents’ first house. It was practically condemned but it was all we could afford and we were so proud of it. A lot of work later it was much improved. Kids want houses that are impressive from day one.

#121 Smoking Man on 05.10.18 at 3:10 am

Just saw this.

Gravy Train on 05.09.18 at 4:38 pm
#180 Gravy Train on 05.09.18 at 12:12 pm
“The less [italics added] education people get, the more deplorable they become.”

#188 Smoking Man on 05.09.18 at 1:03 pm
“The fewer [sic] education people get, the more deplorable they become [misattribution].

Smokey, don’t misattribute words to me that I never used. If you change what someone wrote, then use square brackets to indicate the change. I’d prefer that people think that you’re the ignoramus. :)

BTW, I’ve provided you with a link to the proper usage of the words less and fewer. :)
https://www.merriam-webster.com/words-at-play/fewer-vs-less
….

Let me fill you on a little secret , putting an [ ] around a word makes you a rocket scientist little teacher.

How about writing some code that figures out where good Friday lands on any given year. Then incorporate it into your automated trading system in a tax free haven….

People who memorize where [duh] belong are in big supply. Me not so much….

#122 Karma on 05.10.18 at 3:19 am

#51 John on 05.09.18 at 7:00 pm
“Not sure that I understand how taxes are inflationary. They take money out of the system, thus less consumption/demand/pricing power for sellers.

Maybe it’s just been too long since undergrad economics.”

Depends on the tax. And depends on the definition of “inflation”.

Taxes on purchase prices (i.e. PTT/LTT/GST/DCCs/CACs) are just added on to the end-user’s new price. Flip side is at some threshold, new buyers can’t close on the deal, at which point the deflationary effects kick in.

Taxes on income reduce disposable income for the masses, thus is taking money out of the system, which reduces the buyer power of consumers and pricing power of sellers of goods/services/assets.

End of the day, humans don’t like to sell their assets for less than they bought them (loss-aversion). So Garth is assuming the costs incurred on the holder of the asset will just get pushed onto the future buyer.

#123 under the radar on 05.10.18 at 5:28 am

One of my jobs is to manage a 90 unit rental building at yonge and eglinton. Older building , decent, right in the middle of all the new condo’s . The mills choose to rent the new condo’s for 700.00 more per month. My suites are bigger location is the same. The difference ,they get new stainless appliances, a gym and long waits in the morning to get outside and, evicted when the flipper decides they no longer wish to subsidize them. But to come home to 500 ft of stainless ,fake wood flooring and a balcony where you can touch your neighbour, priceless …

#124 not recently on 05.10.18 at 7:13 am

Our central bank follows the lead of the Fed nine times out of ten

………..

not the case over the last 18 months, not even close

going forward Canada will not raise rates at the same pace. Sorry. Our economic situation does not remotely mimic the US, hence the recent divergence

best advice an ‘active portfolio manager’ could have given in early 2017 was to DECREASE TSX exposure…..some increased, can’t win em all

Judge the future by the last 18 months and see how that turns out. – Garth

#125 Eric on 05.10.18 at 7:22 am

Another $700k Toronto gem.

I particularly like this part of the description: **Do Not Enter The Home**. It May Not Be Safe.

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/19344269/28-WOODFIELD-RD-Toronto-Ontario-M4L2W3-Greenwood-Coxwell

#126 dharma bum on 05.10.18 at 7:32 am

Meanwhile politicians make things worse, as this blog has tediously pointed out. – Garth
——————————————————————–

“People are hard to govern. The rulers interfere with too much. That is why people are hard to govern.” ~ Lao Tzu
[Tao Te Ching chapter 75]

#127 Conn Smythe on 05.10.18 at 7:39 am

#46 Mark

“Please ignore this earlier comment as peak real estate was not 2013 as I have stated many times before. It was actually 2009 for Toronto and Vancouver. I don’t know how I missed this fact earlier but I must say that my Spidey senses are truly tingling tonight.”

This is killing me! The wit of some of these bloggers… Between the bearded mystic sage’s brilliant ripostes and the hilarious comments by some blog dogs, this blog has got to rank as one of the best in the land! Keep it up everyone!

#128 JM Keynes on 05.10.18 at 7:41 am

#51 John

“Not sure that I understand how taxes are inflationary.”

Taxes make life more expensive and hence inflation.

#129 Tater on 05.10.18 at 7:42 am

#21 Yvrmc on 05.09.18 at 5:44 pm
I’m off to Europe for two months in two weeks so thought it would be good to have a backup credit card to my Visa. Applied to BofM for a master card . I have more than 1.5 million in cash,investments and pensions . I have zero debt of any kind . I own no RE . Monthly income is net $4500. Pay my Visa off every Monday morning like clockwork . Just received a letter from BOM declining to give me a credit card … wtf ! Who says credit isn’t tightening up ….
—————————————————————–

You’d be a terrible client for a credit card issuer. You’ll use it and pay it off in full every month. They want the person who will carry a balance right around half the limit, and make payments that are double the minimum each month, but no more.

#130 Conn Smythe on 05.10.18 at 7:46 am

#78 MSM-Free Zone on 05.09.18 at 8:46 pm

“Lots of freedum-luvin, guvment-hatin, bumpstock-packin, banjo-pickin, mission-accomplishin, god-fearin, evangelical hypocrites posting here tonight.

Truly frightening.”

Very witty comment and very true at the same time…

#131 Conn Smythe on 05.10.18 at 7:50 am

#102 Conan

“Stop drinking the FOX Koolaid. Maybe learn some history and expand your sources of news,”

Wise words of advice!

#132 Dissident on 05.10.18 at 7:51 am

Fresh off the press – http://business.financialpost.com/real-estate/as-middle-class-gets-priced-out-of-housing-market-canada-takes-drastic-steps-to-make-it-affordable

As Middle Class gets priced out of housing market Canada takes drastic steps to make it affordable

“If we don’t deal with this issue of housing, we’ll hit a ceiling where we can’t expand that sector of the economy that we desperately need” – Ian Gillespie

Translation: making millennial workers (the nice, cheap wage slaves) pay for a shared basement apartment 1 hour away from their job will be ameliorated by creating 50,000 affordable rental units in Toronto and Vancouver to help sustain an apparently “booming” tech industry.

Government is realizing the economy will choke if you can’t funnel in fresh new wage slaves, the base of their labor pyramid, who can’t afford to live, work and pay for exorbitantly priced rentals, let alone purchase any sort of property.

A stark reality when people realize they can’t hire entry-level workers at $35K to start – a starting salary that hasn’t moved up since 2007!!! – and expect them to survive on that when rent is $2000 a month for anything local – rent which has doubled since 2007. It just does not compute. And they’re finally realizing this, why? Cause it hits them in the pocketbook. Not cause they care about the plight of the entry-level wage slave.

#133 Conn Smythe on 05.10.18 at 7:52 am

#104 Fuzzy Camel

“Canadians meanwhile are driving Dodge Ram 1500s 75km each way to work, with a $600k+ mortgage on a house an hour from work.”

Hilarious and profoundly sad at the same time…

#134 Conn Smythe on 05.10.18 at 8:03 am

#113 Trump Bump

You really think the folks MSM Free Zone was criticizing are open minded and not afraid of other’s opinions? You have got to be kidding. MSM’s whole point is that these folks are the complete inverse of open minded and not afraid of other’s opinions. Your moniker Trump is the poster boy for a narrow view of humanity.

#135 CJBob on 05.10.18 at 8:11 am

#63 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 05.09.18 at 7:53 pm
Obummer made that deal all by his own self…
________
Signed by the UK, US, China, Germany and France.

When you studied the agreement, which area did you have an objection to? Feel free to be specific, because it sounds like you dislike it because of who was in charge in one of the countries when it was signed, not because of the details.

#136 Gravy Train on 05.10.18 at 8:16 am

#116 Leichendiener on 05.10.18 at 1:42 am
“How about [email protected]!”

Are you referring to Gina Haspel? She’s not very nice; she’s big on the use of torture. She’s Donald Trump’s kind of gal; he’s also big on the use of torture. :(

#137 moh omar on 05.10.18 at 8:35 am

Hi Garth,

Should I lock in 3.55% Fixed rate at one of the big five or should I go for a variable rate that BMO is offering at 2.5%? The fixed rate is for 5 years and the variable is for 4 years which allows me to lock in if rates go to high.

#138 Big Kahuna on 05.10.18 at 8:44 am

MSM coverage of Trump 92% NEGATIVE-and still the guy gets more popular every day-I guess it is fair to conclude that the mainstream media hates any success the USA has as a country https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ABpxgxRqzEs

#139 Oft deleted much maligned stock.picker on 05.10.18 at 9:03 am

Investment under Trudeau crashes 68% ….. while investment in Super Asia triples…wtf Canada.

https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/news/1461609/investment-applications-more-than-triple-in-q1

#140 James on 05.10.18 at 9:25 am

#136 Gravy Train on 05.10.18 at 8:16 am

#116 Leichendiener on 05.10.18 at 1:42 am
“How about [email protected]!”

Are you referring to Gina Haspel? She’s not very nice; she’s big on the use of torture. She’s Donald Trump’s kind of gal; he’s also big on the use of torture. :(
…………………………………………………………….
No now that’s a lie and Fake news Donald J Trump would never condone the use of torture would he………..
Oops my bad………

https://www.cbsnews.com/video/donald-trump-we-need-to-change-law-to-allow-torture-waterboarding/

#141 James on 05.10.18 at 9:36 am

DELETED

#142 nogriftza on 05.10.18 at 9:56 am

Hey Garth,

Lots of chatter from you lately on retiring in the cold rainy Maritimes etc. Not sure many retirees are buying that or wanna put up with this kind of stuff.

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/star-columnists/2018/05/09/woman-yelling-at-group-of-men-in-alberta-dennys-shows-racism-is-part-of-canadas-character.html

Lots of friendlier people around the world for retirees to interact with.

What does a racist woman in Alberta have to do with the welcoming Maritimes? – Garth

#143 For those about to flop... on 05.10.18 at 9:58 am

Here is the latest effort from howmuch.

A little longer than normal with a lot of information to incorporate, so click on the link for the full picture…

M43BC

“The Wild West of Crypto Hacks in One Graph

Pundits and commentators have long worried about the security of decentralized cryptocurrencies. In fact, detractors often complain that investing in cryptocurrencies carries far too much downside for the average investor—even if the price goes up, you can still lose it all to hackers. We wanted to take a step back and analyze the history of cryptocurrency hacks. Please note that all USD estimated value is based on average market value at the time of the event.

We created our new graph by taking data from CryptoAware.org, which recently published a list of highly significant crypto hacks and scams. There’s no central record keeper for this sort of thing, so CryptoAware undoubtedly missed some. We combined a cluster graph representing the size of the hack on a timeline with the logo of the exchange or wallet provider that fell prey. This approach lets you easily see how often and to what extent the crypto-market has sustained attacks over the last several years.

A general trend is immediately obvious about our visualization: cryptocurrency hacks have generally become more common and more valuable over time. $10M+ hacks started happening with some regularity after the summer of 2016, right when the crypto-market started taking off. Prior to that time, there was exactly one hack over $10M, the infamous Mt. Gox hack in 2014. More on that in a minute. The second-most devastating hack happened very recently in a Tokyo exchange called Coincheck, for the somewhat obscure NEM coins. The only other two cryptocurrency hacks worth more than $100M were Parity’s Ether wallet hack ($160M) and BitGrail’a Nano hack from early this year ($170M). The latter is still causing lots of consternation within the cryptocurrency community. All things being equal, the average crypto-hack comes out to about $37M.

The critical thing to remember about our graph is that it represents the value of the cryptocurrency theft at the time it occurred. This creates a fair comparison because the value of cryptocurrencies changes literally every second of every day. But keep in mind what this really means: the Mt. Gox hack represented $450M in crypto-wealth as of early 2014, back when Bitcoin cost about $560. As of this writing on May 1, 2018, those same Bitcoins are worth just over $9,000, or a total of about $7,252,000,000. Think that’s incredible? Back in December of 2017, the stash would have been worth $15B+. That’s 10% of the entire Bitcoin market captoday and several times bigger than the biggest bank robberies ever.

This raises two important questions. First, what would somebody do with so much cryptocurrency? Obviously, the value of the currency would plunge as news broke of such a massive heist. Since there is no central governing authority, it is relatively easy to launder cryptocurrencies through different exchanges, which makes it possible to convert the coins into a country’s accepted currency. Second, can cryptocurrency exchanges and wallet providers come up with some sort of system to prevent hacks without government regulations? The Wild West nature of cryptocurrencies—price manipulations, flash crashes, hacks—all indicate that these platforms have to do a better job securing value. Suppose 10% of the entire Bitcoin market were to disappear tomorrow. What are the chances that central governments will outlaw exchanges then?”

https://howmuch.net/articles/biggest-crypto-hacks-scams

#144 Smoking Man on 05.10.18 at 10:09 am

Bill C-48

T2 and his band of tree huggers just passed s bill banning oil tankers near the BC coast from vancover to alaska.

Indigenous-owned Eagle Spirit – who are seeking to build a 1,500 KM pipeline – are challenging the Trudeau government in court to stop bill C-48.

Saudi Arabia will be thrilled. So much for Mr Dress Ups pledge to help native canadians.

#145 IHCTD9 on 05.10.18 at 10:16 am

#137 moh omar on 05.10.18 at 8:35 am
Hi Garth,

Should I lock in 3.55% Fixed rate at one of the big five or should I go for a variable rate that BMO is offering at 2.5%? The fixed rate is for 5 years and the variable is for 4 years which allows me to lock in if rates go to high.
____

That’s a no brainer isn’t it?

I don’t have a mortgage anymore, but I never won with a fixed rate.

#146 IHCTD9 on 05.10.18 at 10:20 am

#5 Kumar on 05.09.18 at 4:28 pm

So glad I placed bets on both cryptocurrency and owning land.
_____

Buddy, you’re not going to be glad for long. You’d better start praying to lady luck – she’s all you got.

#147 nogriftza on 05.10.18 at 10:23 am

What does a racist woman in Alberta have to do with the welcoming Maritimes? – Garth”

Ok I will admit the eastern girls are crazy friendly, and gotta love the newfs, they are number 1…this is starting to sound like a Beach Boys song.

#148 IHCTD9 on 05.10.18 at 10:29 am

#142 nogriftza on 05.10.18 at 9:56 am
Hey Garth,

Lots of chatter from you lately on retiring in the cold rainy Maritimes etc. Not sure many retirees are buying that or wanna put up with this kind of stuff.

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/star-columnists/2018/05/09/woman-yelling-at-group-of-men-in-alberta-dennys-shows-racism-is-part-of-canadas-character.html

____

Love how the dingbat author of the article ascribes this one woman’s actions to all Canadians from coast to coast.

Just another reason why it’s so hard to read the Star. With any luck, they will eventually become insolvent for good, and finally fade out of existence.

#149 IHCTD9 on 05.10.18 at 10:45 am

#125 Eric on 05.10.18 at 7:22 am

Another $700k Toronto gem.

I particularly like this part of the description: **Do Not Enter The Home**. It May Not Be Safe.

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/19344269/28-WOODFIELD-RD-Toronto-Ontario-M4L2W3-Greenwood-Coxwell
___________________________________________

That dump has ‘dry ice blast” written all over it.

Yeah, I got 700K for that LOL! That’s a good 4K per month once you add in taxes and insurance – before you even start trying to fix it.

Even Bob the Builder would say “No we can’t!!” to this one.

#150 georgist on 05.10.18 at 10:59 am

> That’s a no brainer isn’t it?

> I don’t have a mortgage anymore, but I never won with a fixed rate.

We’ve had a trend for decades of falling rates.

https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/interest-rate

Select “max”.

This isn’t a good way to build a map for the future.

#151 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 05.10.18 at 11:08 am

#135 CJBob on 05.10.18 at 8:11 am
#63 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 05.09.18 at 7:53 pm
Obummer made that deal all by his own self…
________
Signed by the UK, US, China, Germany and France.

When you studied the agreement, which area did you have an objection to? Feel free to be specific, because it sounds like you dislike it because of who was in charge in one of the countries when it was signed, not because of the details.
…………………………………

Inspections and verification are not allowed at military sites where the nuclear development would occur. Did YOU study the agreement ?

#152 in Calgary on 05.10.18 at 11:12 am

#137 moh omar on 05.10.18 at 8:35 am
Hi Garth,

Should I lock in 3.55% Fixed rate at one of the big five or should I go for a variable rate that BMO is offering at 2.5%? The fixed rate is for 5 years and the variable is for 4 years which allows me to lock in if rates go to high.
_____________________________________

I never comment here but I think this is exactly what the bank wants you to do – opt for the cheaper variable rate now, but within the year it will almost certainly be higher, prompting you to switch to a fixed anyway (which who knows what they will offer you at that time). I suppose if you are willing to take the risk on how long the variable will stay as is go for it, but if you need payment certainty fixed might be the right way to go – and in 5 years I’d be willing to risk rates being higher than 3.55%. Also, how long are they offering this “promo” variable rate to you? Don’t be fooled into thinking its 2.5% for 5 years as the definition of variable is it can change at any time…

#153 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 05.10.18 at 11:16 am

not the case over the last 18 months, not even close

going forward Canada will not raise rates at the same pace. Sorry. Our economic situation does not remotely mimic the US, hence the recent divergence

best advice an ‘active portfolio manager’ could have given in early 2017 was to DECREASE TSX exposure…..some increased, can’t win em all

Judge the future by the last 18 months and see how that turns out. – Garth
………………………….”

Howza ‘bout ‘dis : Living with Lower for Longer by Stephen Poloz, BOC, Sept.2016

https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2016/09/living-lower-longer/

#154 IHCTD9 on 05.10.18 at 11:18 am

#88 CKNW 980 on 05.09.18 at 9:27 pm

Bad gov = civil unrest. These people in person would be swinging at each other.
____

Get too many of this kind going and they’ll start a Civil war.

Bottom end IQ, and emotional instability – just what the Doctor did not order.

#155 Gravy Train on 05.10.18 at 11:25 am

DELETED

#156 IHCTD9 on 05.10.18 at 11:32 am

#118 Oft deleted much maligned stock.picker on 05.10.18 at 1:47 am

Get rid of Trudeau idiocy and Canada’s oil will flow….making billions for us and ensuring balance in the market. Les learn to recognize the real bad guys and not the others who want us to not think for ourselves.
________

Way too many folks living in la-la land in this country for this to happen.

Hey, I love to think about all the great things that could easily happen here in Canada too.

But, then I realize these same things are hated by youth, protested to infinity, blocked by courts, and beat to death by our elected officials.

Now we are watching billions in private sector investment fleeing to other countries, while whatever’s left here gets shook down by the dumbest people and politicians on earth.

The only question we need ask is: “Is stupid a one way street?”

#157 not so liquid in calgary on 05.10.18 at 11:43 am

Sir Garth,

“excited states”… a Dr. Foth ‘cadge’?

#158 Gravy Train on 05.10.18 at 11:49 am

Garth, I’m amazed that people who reject your point of view continue to read your blog! How do you manage to attract them? Are they trying to persuade you to their own way of thinking? Are they going after your readers? Whatever it is, it’s baffling!

My charisma. – Garth

#159 Pre-retiree on 05.10.18 at 12:06 pm

FYI
[email protected] = The nice (or not-so-nice) lady at the bank.

#160 YVRvan on 05.10.18 at 12:15 pm

You’re gonna love this one Happy. You know when shysters use the C-word, it’s serious.

https://biv.com/article/2018/05/realtors-developers-brace-crash

#161 Keith in Rio on 05.10.18 at 12:18 pm

What is our PM…..Justin Merkel……doing to make Kanaduh great agsin ???

#162 People watching people on 05.10.18 at 12:34 pm

My rented skybox sold. Below ask. Meh, only took a year.

My new rental costs LESS than my current rent, basically the same size in the building across the street. Same builder, so the finishes are the same. Unit has been updated, so nicer than the last dump that had 13 year old builder carpet, appliances and paint.

I guess when you have near 800 credit scores and actual jobs, you can out muscle Moisters for rentals with a lower price. We low balled the rent with 3 competing offers from Moisters, and we won.

#163 In Garth We Trust on 05.10.18 at 12:36 pm

#158 Gravy Train

“Garth, I’m amazed that people who reject your point of view continue to read your blog! How do you manage to attract them? Are they trying to persuade you to their own way of thinking? Are they going after your readers? Whatever it is, it’s baffling!”

The bearded mystic sage, all knowing, all wise, debunker of scoundrel politicians, financial tea leaf reader extraordinaire, champion of the common Canadian, winner of financial advice awards, best selling author, Harley riding badass, lover of all things canine and all round jolly good fellow has a Rasputin like control over all readers of this blog…

#164 Smoking Man on 05.10.18 at 12:38 pm

Gravy Train on 05.10.18 at 11:25 am
DELETED
……

Ha Ha, welcome to the club… Only 1, and I know it’s spelt one.

1 alpha allowed in this dog pen…and it ain’t you.

#165 dgb on 05.10.18 at 12:49 pm

#89–WRONG…the banks know that rates are going up and they do not want you to lock in at the low rate for even one year..so variable gives them more interest from you lest you be unable or forget to renew or change it to fixed on the exact date that it goes up

#166 Calgary Rip Off on 05.10.18 at 12:57 pm

Since the start of this site renting has been seen as being better. This doesn’t account for many variables. Here in Calgary many of the rentals are the same as the mortgage.

So what do you do? Get a mortgage within your money. Borrow wisely so when rates go up you will requalify. This is exactly what I did. Got an overpriced shack for $420K in Calgary NW. As a first time buyer I put down the appropriate cash. Now the principle is at $300K thereabouts. If housing stays the same or goes up, at least I didn’t pad some landlords pocket with that money. Are there costs in owning a mortgage? Definitely. Will I “make” money off owning this mortgage? Maybe. I just feel more comfortable not paying money to some prick who timed the market and bought a bunch of houses so he wouldn’t need a real job to survive. I don’t support that mentality and this is also why I acquired a mortgage. There are many good landlords, and many slimy ones. The one I had in Calgary said “You will never buy a home” while I was paying him $1700/month to live in his shack. In 2011 I found a shack down the street and bought the mortgage. Will I pay it off eventually? Yes. Here’s some perspective: Do what makes YOU comfortable. In 100 years it wont matter, because you will be dead. So use your time wisely here because once you are expired, that’s it. Who you are stays with you in the afterlife. And focusing on money exclusively and not principles of why you are doing what you are doing, intentions, is not the way to live.

#167 PastThePeak on 05.10.18 at 1:07 pm

#156 IHCTD9 on 05.10.18 at 11:32 am
#118 Oft deleted much maligned stock.picker on 05.10.18 at 1:47 am

Get rid of Trudeau idiocy and Canada’s oil will flow….making billions for us and ensuring balance in the market. Les learn to recognize the real bad guys and not the others who want us to not think for ourselves.
________

But, then I realize these same things are hated by youth, protested to infinity, blocked by courts, and beat to death by our elected officials.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Remember a politician’s top 3 priorities:
1. Get elected
2. Get re-elected
3. Make personal and business connections in order to have a career after no longer able to get elected

If more people could understand this, there might be less inclination to look to “the government” for help…

#168 Another Cranky Boomer on 05.10.18 at 1:28 pm

Baddeck, NS would never be confused with Shaughnessy or Point Grey Rd. For one, Baddeck has a better restaurant (the Bite House). Secondly, Baddeck has better beer (Big Spruce from nearby Nyanza).

However, Baddeck has its own tax revolt involving the estate of Alexander Graham Bell. You YVR residents can take a look at the building and the amounts involved. Then you can either laugh or cry.

http://thechronicleherald.ca/capebreton/1555137-owners-of-alexander-graham-bell’s-estate-dispute-885k-property-valuation

#169 James on 05.10.18 at 1:29 pm

#45 God bless the president of the United States of America on 05.09.18 at 6:44 pm

A real man.
A real country with it’s own core Identity.
God bless AMERICA and the American President.
………………………………………………………………
Well America used to be the epitome of freedom and democracy at one interval. That time is over. After visiting the UK last week for a meeting the general consensus is that the UK and the EU are on their own against the Russians and for that matter any tyrannical leader, Jihadist or for that matter the evils that wish to bring down western democracy. Everyone I have talked to has indicated that America is no long viewed as the leaders of the free world but rather they are, and I quote, “A circus act with Donald J trump as the Head Clown”. With freedom of expression (first amendment rights) and freedom of the press under siege it is only a matter of time before Dorky Donald covertly influences the uninformed Americans that his way is the future compliments of the Republicans who support him. This reads like Orwell’s 1984. “All animals are Equal. But some animals are more equal than others! Twelve voices were shouting in anger, and they were all alike. No question, now, what had happened to the faces of the pigs. The creatures outside looked from pig to man, and from man to pig, and from pig to man again; but already it was impossible to say which was which. What have we become?

#170 James on 05.10.18 at 1:33 pm

#164 Smoking Man on 05.10.18 at 12:38 pm

Gravy Train on 05.10.18 at 11:25 am
DELETED
……

Ha Ha, welcome to the club… Only 1, and I know it’s spelt one.
1 alpha allowed in this dog pen…and it ain’t you.
………………………………………………………………
Nice job alpha dog, whatever your name is……Cuddles
Cutie
Darling
Dixie
Doodle
Fifi
Fluffy
Gidget
Magic
Mittens
Pickle
Pixie
Puddles
Nipper
Marshmallow
Skittles
Socks
Sparkle
Sweetie
Twinkle

#171 Newcomer on 05.10.18 at 1:37 pm

#162 People watching people on 05.10.18 at 12:34 pm

I guess when you have near 800 credit scores and actual jobs, you can out muscle Moisters for rentals with a lower price.

Good job on the lowballing, but how did you end up with a credit score under 800? I hope it’s not by carrying balances on your CC. That would be what MM would call a debt emergency and would need to be fixed.

#172 Buster the Clown on 05.10.18 at 2:01 pm

#168 James

“Everyone I have talked to has indicated that America is no long viewed as the leaders of the free world but rather they are, and I quote, “A circus act with Donald J trump as the Head Clown”.”

That’s right James, we clowns love our head honcho, Donald the Clown! You have to have real buffoon abilities to do what Donald the Clown does!

#173 CJBob on 05.10.18 at 2:04 pm

#166 PastThePeak on 05.10.18 at 1:07 pm
Remember a politician’s top 3 priorities:
1. Get elected
2. Get re-elected
3. Make personal and business connections in order to have a career after no longer able to get elected

If more people could understand this, there might be less inclination to look to “the government” for help…
______________
Remember a private corporations top 3 priorities:
Make money, make money, make more money.

If more people could understand this they might understand there is a role for government in the world.

#174 Natrx on 05.10.18 at 2:10 pm

Bought 12+ years ago. Mortgage now is about $300K, with basement rental income of $700/month. Was that a ‘dumb’ move?

#175 Dan on 05.10.18 at 2:22 pm

In order for Canadian oil companies to be profitable I think oil should be about 500 bucks. TSX last four years?
Total disaster. Now imagine Canada in EU without printing it’s own money. Would be like Greece without tourists.

#176 Stan Brooks on 05.10.18 at 2:25 pm

#73 Trojan House on 05.09.18 at 8:32 pm
#14 Stan Brooks on 05.09.18 at 5:01 pm
#24 Happy penguins on 05.09.18 at 5:48 pm

I think Mark may be right. You guys look at only the domestic economy and forget that the whole world is connected economically. Rising rates will make the US dollar strengthen, which increases the cost of money, which in turn will make it more difficult for emerging markets to finance their debt. It’s like a contagion – the only question is: Who will be patient zero who will start the debt crisis?

============================

Raising rates increase the cost of credit, not money.

Cost of money (whatever the wealthy owners perceived it to be) is determined on free market, not by central bankers.

Anyone who thinks that in current high debt low growth (mostly inflationary) environment deflation is a viable option (in mid to long run, not in a month time frame) is certifiably insane.

Look at the oil prices now and imagine in the late cycle (where we are now) those tripping and gas at the pump 5 bucks in Canada with all the consequences.

Would that be ‘deflationary’?
Absolutely not.

Credit tightening is post-inflationary action in this case, if they want to curb the inflation rates should be 7- 8 %.

#177 Stan Brooks on 05.10.18 at 2:29 pm

#174 Natrx on 05.10.18 at 2:10 pm
Bought 12+ years ago. Mortgage now is about $300K, with basement rental income of $700/month. Was that a ‘dumb’ move?

=======================

It depends on the time-frame.
Short to mid term you look genius.

If you bought in GTA and ask your kids or grand-kids 30 years from now they probably would qualify it as the dumbest decision in your lifetime.

Everything is relative.

#178 Conn Smythe on 05.10.18 at 2:41 pm

#174 Natrx

“Bought 12+ years ago. Mortgage now is about $300K, with basement rental income of $700/month. Was that a ‘dumb’ move?”

What did you pay, what is it worth? Subtract and see if you are happy with the answer…

Wrong answer. Subtract the total ownership costs and what the equity might have earned in other investment vehicle, less rental equivalent, from the difference between acquisition price and market value. – Garth

#179 jess on 05.10.18 at 2:48 pm

78 MSM-Free Zone on 05.09.18 at 8:46 pm

A sign in Maryland tells liberals to get their guns if they try to impeach Trump

trump …he loves other people’s cash

Columbus Nova as part of the larger Renova Group, suggesting it was a subsidiary. Columbus Nova’s website also previously called the firm “the US investment vehicle” for Renova.
…”several SEC filings related to Columbus Nova show that the firm and Intrater have been deeply interwoven with Vekselberg and his business empire.”

#180 Trump Bump on 05.10.18 at 2:57 pm

#134 Conn Smythe on 05.10.18 at 8:03 am
#113 Trump Bump

You really think the folks MSM Free Zone was criticizing are open minded and not afraid of other’s opinions? You have got to be kidding. MSM’s whole point is that these folks are the complete inverse of open minded and not afraid of other’s opinions. Your moniker Trump is the poster boy for a narrow view of humanity.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

How many times did “progressive” Anti-fa thugs beat or attack Trump supporters, Hollywood elites verbally abuse Trump supporters, people lose their jobs or be blacklisted for being Trump supporters, or in the case of Kanye West, be told that he’s no longer black?

The progressives are the ones with the narrow minded hate issues.

But if you only watch CNN you live in the Echo Chamber.

#181 Gravy Train on 05.10.18 at 2:57 pm

#155 Gravy Train on 05.10.18 at 11:25 am
DELETED

#164 Smoking Man on 05.10.18 at 12:38 pm
“Ha Ha, welcome to the club… Only 1, and I know it’s spelt one. 1 alpha allowed in this dog pen…and it ain’t you.”

I’m now officially a bad boy; tell all the girls! :)

#182 Mark on 05.10.18 at 2:58 pm

”#174 Natrx on 05.10.18 at 2:10 pm
Bought 12+ years ago. Mortgage now is about $300K, with basement rental income of $700/month. Was that a ‘dumb’ move?”

With the 2013 apex behind us, and the real threat of currency deflation over the next cycle, you should do well. The worst case being capital gains tax when you sell based upon the size of the rental unit relative to the entire house. There are methods available to limit this to an almost unnoticeable amount.

I wouldn’t concern myself with Stan Brooks and his opinions in any regard. Safest bet is to ignore him. He seems like the type who likes to hear himself talk. Noticed how he didn’t provide any real input, just a lot of hot air.

#183 jess on 05.10.18 at 2:59 pm

literacy

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-33521655

and that “real man” President Trump’s past comments slamming those who plead the Fifth Amendment quickly resurfaced Wednesday after Trump’s personal …
Cohen to Plead Fifth, Though Trump Said That’s for Mobsters – NYMag
nymag.com/daily/…/cohen-to-plead-fifth-though-trump-said-thats-for-mobsters.html

Apr 26, 2018 – Back in 2016, before his longtime fixer had been raided by the FBI, Trump mused, “If you’re innocent, why are you taking the Fifth Amendment?”

#184 Dan on 05.10.18 at 3:04 pm

DELETED

#185 Smoking Man on 05.10.18 at 3:13 pm

T2 knows hes toast next up to bat. So he’s changing the rules. He’s got the cbc and Toronto star. Every one else including individuals need to shut up 3 months before election.

Welcome to communism comrades
https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/global-opinions/wp/2018/05/10/why-is-canada-trying-to-restrain-political-activism/?noredirect=on&__twitter_impression=true

#186 Chris on 05.10.18 at 3:27 pm

#13 Dave on 05.09.18 at 5:01 pm

With Oil on the rise will Alberta rebound? Will commercial real estate finally have occupants and prices will rise?

#72 Tony on 05.09.18 at 8:30 pm
Re: #13 Dave on 05.09.18 at 5:01 pm

No Alberta home prices are still in free-fall mode. Canadian oil is still sold a a deep discount to west Texas Crude. Albertans say if the NDP loses the next election home prices will get crushed due to massive job cuts. Home prices may stop falling in Alberta if oil hits the 100 dollar American mark again.
____________________________

I agree with the first thing Tony mentioned but what WCS sells for is more reliant on market access. If the U.S. continues to be Canada’s only customer for oil sands crude, then yes. But if (by some shocking surprise) we get smart enough to build a pipeline to tidewater and therefore other markets, WCS prices will rebound and Alberta will recover. Without that though, I am deeply concerned for Alberta and by association, Canada’s GDP.

#187 Stan Brooks on 05.10.18 at 3:51 pm

Nice explanation of real inflation:

http://realinvestmentadvice.com/stoking-the-embers-of-inflation/

In US it seems around 5%, soon to reach 6, 7 %

So watch out for the rates.

===============

As I stated many times for Canada:

real inflation is 6-8 %, soon to be north of 10.
Imagine what the incompetents at BoC will do once real rates hit 7,8, 12 %..hint: nothing,

The good news is that savers will be screwed with no deposit rate increases,

Cheers.

#188 Leo Trollstoy on 05.10.18 at 3:57 pm

Every day Chris proves that my identification of him as a troll is correct lol

I’m always in the know!

You’re welcome

#189 aa5 on 05.10.18 at 4:31 pm

In BC all the papers, tv, radio media are reporting big gains for real estate over the last year. The Vancouver Real Estate Board’s ‘benchmark house price’ is up 12% year over year.

The BC assessment came out with big price increases over the last year. Near everyone agrees their house went up big again.

The only people who disagree are the people who have recently sold their houses and were not able to fetch year ago prices. But these negative nellies are just shouted down as morons who sold their house for way less than it was ‘really’ worth.

#190 A Yank in BC on 05.10.18 at 4:31 pm

#173 CJBob on 05.10.18 at 2:04 pm
“Remember a private corporations top 3 priorities:
Make money, make money, make more money.”

And what’s wrong with that? Is producing goods and services that people want to buy while providing jobs for their employees a bad thing? You seriously need a course in economics.

#191 SilverSon on 05.10.18 at 4:35 pm

#182 Mark on 05.10.18 at 2:58 pm

I think Stan is correct on this one. He didn’t say that Natrx was dumb – he pointed out that “dumb” is relative and gave an example to illustrate that.

To determine if an action was dumb requires context and there’s not enough context in Natrx’s comment for any of us to determine any level of dumb-ness. Natrx owns part of a house, and entire $300k mortgage and has at least $700/month income from a basement rental apartment. That’s all we know. Did Natrx pay $2-million for that house 12 years ago and it’s only 1200 square feet and located in Barrie? I dunno. Would that make Natrx dumb? Not if Natrx loves that house and was happy to pay any cost to own it.

Natrx is is either:
1. Happy with what Natrx has, therefore not dumb in which case this question wouldn’t have even been posted;
2. Worried about what Natrx has, so Natrx posted a comment to look for others to validate that Natrx isn’t dumb; or
3. Believes Natrx is a shrewd RE investor and posted a comment to brag to everyone else about how smart Natrx is.

I am wearing size 9 shoes, drive a 4-door car, and had a peanut butter sandwich for lunch. Am I dumb?

#192 not so liquid in calgary on 05.10.18 at 4:55 pm

@ Another Cranky Boomer on 05.10.18 at 1:28 pm

——————————————————————————————–

the Bell property includes 600 acres… non?

#193 Stan Brooks on 05.10.18 at 5:00 pm

#182 Mark on 05.10.18 at 2:58 pm
”#174 Natrx on 05.10.18 at 2:10 pm
Bought 12+ years ago. Mortgage now is about $300K, with basement rental income of $700/month. Was that a ‘dumb’ move?”

With the 2013 apex behind us, and the real threat of currency deflation over the next cycle, you should do well. The worst case being capital gains tax when you sell based upon the size of the rental unit relative to the entire house. There are methods available to limit this to an almost unnoticeable amount.

I wouldn’t concern myself with Stan Brooks and his opinions in any regard. Safest bet is to ignore him. He seems like the type who likes to hear himself talk. Noticed how he didn’t provide any real input, just a lot of hot air.

=======================

I accept this as a great compliment as it comes from you, the guy who constantly gets it wrong with the ‘deflation’ but is strong headed enough to continue with his idiocies.

How Canadian.

#194 CJBob on 05.10.18 at 5:07 pm

190 A Yank in BC on 05.10.18 at 4:31 pm
And what’s wrong with that? Is producing goods and services that people want to buy while providing jobs for their employees a bad thing? You seriously need a course in economics.
___________
And if there are no checks and balances you end up with the great recession of 2008.

#195 PastThePeak on 05.10.18 at 5:50 pm

190 A Yank in BC on 05.10.18 at 4:31 pm
And what’s wrong with that? Is producing goods and services that people want to buy while providing jobs for their employees a bad thing? You seriously need a course in economics.
___________
And if there are no checks and balances you end up with the great recession of 2008.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

No one is saying that “anarchy” is the preferred state. Of course there has to be checks and balances. Canada is up the yingyang with regulations, in case you are not aware.

My point was that those who think that government needs to /should solve all the problems of society are being delusional – you will not get the results needed, as solving the problem is not primary in a politician’s objectives. They want to be “seen” to be doing something, but that is not the same as doing.

Take the simple case of “constructing a rental apartment building”. The politician’s objective (per my 3 notes) is to look to be doing something for his/her base, virtue signaling in all the right ways, supporting the right businesses or unions, and to not cause any controversy. Actually getting the “building built” is only tangentially relevant (it is a good photo op, but if they get elected before it is ever done, it doesn’t really matter).

A private company’s business is to make money. To get the money, they need to construct the building, adhere to regulations, & obtain approval that the job was done. Yes, they will try to maximize their profit, and so as a buyer you need to negotiate and manage them. Gov’t has a role is ensuring safety. But at the end of the day, “constructing the building” is 100% in line with the objective to be profitable

Hopefully you can see the difference…heaven help us if most of the younger generation can’t…

#196 whynot mickey on 05.11.18 at 8:38 pm

#125 Eric on 05.10.18 at 7:22 am

Another $700k Toronto gem.

I particularly like this part of the description: **Do Not Enter The Home**. It May Not Be Safe.

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/19344269/28-WOODFIELD-RD-Toronto-Ontario-M4L2W3-Greenwood-Coxwell

kewl! a nice little fixer-upper!