Going alt

– Davie & Granville, downtown Vancity, April 25

The numbers are foggy, but it seems alt lenders are raking it in. Outfits like Toronto’s Firm Capital give out mortgages to anxious people at an average of about 8.5% – close to three times the cost of a home loan from one of the big banks.

Of course, you have to be desperate to pay that amount of coin. And most are – desperate to buy a house or refinance an expiring mortgage and unable to pass the B20 stress test. So, they go alt. The risk of default is big, therefore so is the rate. No mortgage insurance involved. No bank regulator, either. And business is booming.

The US central bank has raised rates five times in about a year. Our guys have pulled the trigger three times. The Bank of Canada took a pass this month, so now markets are giving 76% odds that the cost of money (including mortgages) will go up on July 11th. That will take the BoC rate to 1.5%, which is still less than inflation of 2.3%. So, rates are actually negative – something bank boss Stephen Poloz says will not continue to be the case for long, since we are now nine long years into a recovery.

Translation: the central bank wants a ‘neutral’ rate at least equal to, if not greater than, inflation. So there’s a 1% increase (four traditional hikes) in the pipeline over the next period of time. A year? Eighteen months?

Beats me. But markets are reacting now. Hikes in the bond market had stocks going in the other direction earlier this week as US Treasuries nailed the 3% mark for the first time in four years. The 10-year American issue has been flirting with that level for a few months, and every time it closes in, money streams out of equities and into safer havens. After all, if the government will pay you 3%, risk-free, to hold a bond then why risk capital losses to own shares with a dividend not much higher? Bonds at these levels start to compete with stocks. And stocks don’t like it.

The expectation now is Treasuries will finish the year at 3.25% or so, and that’ll mean three or four additional increases by the Fed. Next year, another three. In all, this cycle will have seen 12 to 16 jumps by the American central bank. If you think our guys are going to sit on their hands and watch without acting, you’re reading the wrong blog. Google “NDP Economics” instead.

Inaction would tank the value of the dollar and spike inflation. That might be okay for trade (so long as the Americans don’t complain about currency manipulation) but it gooses prices and drops consumer spending while encouraging wage demands (pesky employees). None of that does the central bank want. Nor will we get it.

Our bank has followed the Fed more than 90% of the time. With decent economic growth, robust job creation and romping corporate profitability, this time will not be different. The path ahead will be gradual, but it will be up and more up. The combination of slowly rising rates and steadily diminishing house equity will screw up people who thought the opposite would always prevail. Well, no more. That ship has sailed.

What does the Bank of Canada desire?

Simple. Low inflation – about 2%. A stable, range-bound currency around 80 cents. Steady economic growth of maybe two per cent. And it wants people to stop snorfling debt like crazed truffle pigs.

Those who have come here for years to say rates would never increase have been proven wrong. There’s more to come. No recession (except in BC). No rate cuts. No going back to 2% mortgages. Things may get so damn boring this bog will shudder to a halt, then reopen as an online, sub-prime lender. With a cat theme.

184 comments ↓

#1 For those about to flop... on 04.26.18 at 5:06 pm

Pink Pollen falling in Vancouver.

Check out what these guys on the Westside thought was the best course of action.

They were asking 4.86 and just got medieval on the price and chopped 870k or roughly 18% off of it down to the latest assessment number of 3.99

Their assessment was rolled back from 4.38 to 3.99 leaving one less leg on the stool.

So they are into it 4.3, asking 3.99 and it is a 56 build,no bueno.

Their search for a greater fool has fallen flat after the previous owners checked in February 2015 and checked out safely February 2016 ,and so it is looking like it is themselves at this point in time

This one has the potential to be another half a million dollar loss, but maybe this is their bottom number to get a fish on the hook and then lie about the how long the tail was…

M43BC

2526 Edgar Crescent. paid 4.3 February 2016 ass3.99 asking 3.99

2526 Edgar Crescent, Vancouver, BC V6L 2G4

2017-07-24 : $4,880,000
2018-01-23 : $4,868,000

Now asking 3.99

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/2526-edgar-crescent

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAwMEw4Wg==

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Feel free to make a donation.

Flop For Fox Fund…

http://www.terryfox.org/get-involved/ways-to-give/

#2 Blaze on 04.26.18 at 5:10 pm

Let’s go Bitcoin!

*clap* *clap *clap-clap* *clap*

#3 Stan Brooks on 04.26.18 at 5:11 pm

BoC does not want low inflation.

They want high inflation but they lie about but keeping rates low in order to support an ill-advised, if not outright criminal policy of ‘the banks above all’ along with CMHC.

Inflation has been steady at at least 6-8 % yearly and only an idiot or a professional lair would claim otherwise.

At least we have no expenses for gold storage any more:

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-04-26/canada-has-no-gold-mountain-debt-things-will-end-badly

We are smarter than US who has 800 tons of ‘rocks’.

No western central bank wants high inflation. – Garth

#4 Stan Brooks on 04.26.18 at 5:23 pm


No western central bank wants high inflation. – Garth

That is the official narrative. I don’t believe a single word of it.

Only a fool would believe in their CPI ‘inflation’ numbers. You can’t have ‘inflation’ at 2 % with cost of living increasing by 7-8 %.

Obviously I am not a fool.

The combination of CHMC and BoC is lethal.
We are already hit with huge inflation/cots of living increases, people borrowed over 250 billions through HELOC /home equity line of credit in order to put food on their table and to pay their bills and taxes, why is that if there is deflation and wages increase?

With all due respect, we already have lived long enough in this big giant lie with hiding real government debt (over 1 trillion federal, 90 %f GDP combined government debt), 270 % of GDP private debt (including over 101 % household debt), how long do we think these lies can continue?

#5 Where's The Money Guido? on 04.26.18 at 5:27 pm

DELETED

#6 Stan Brooks on 04.26.18 at 5:28 pm

And the Ontario government’s lies are another proof, they report budget deficit of 6 billions while it is 11.

Lies, lies, lies. Big giant lies, Canadian lies.

#7 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 04.26.18 at 5:35 pm

No western central bank wants high inflation. – Garth
………………………………………

Nor do they want governments and consumers to go bankrupt. Inflation numbers have been BS for years. Ask anyone who shops regularly. Interest rates will stay as low as possible for as long as possible. Maybe a token quarter point hike here and there for appearance sake. Exporters will love the low loonie. Stop scaring the children Garth. Carry on folks…..

Five Fed hikes and four by our bank in the space of a year is not ‘a token quarter point hike here and there.’ Stop lying to the children. – Garth

#8 Alberta Ed on 04.26.18 at 5:35 pm

Speaking of snorfling debt like crazed truffle pigs, perhaps the BoC should have a chat with Mr. Dressup.

#9 Stan Brooks on 04.26.18 at 5:40 pm

#7 Alberta Ed on 04.26.18 at 5:35 pm

In my mind anyone who has any trust whatsoever in whatever federal government, T2, the finance minister, provincial governments, BoC, CMHC say should be automatically qualified as ‘certifiable insane’.

Have you actually watched these guys speaking?

I would shoot myself if I had that low IQ. But it somehow works on the populace! Amazing.

#10 Kilt on 04.26.18 at 5:41 pm

Rubbish. They have raised rates 3 times. 2 were to make up for dropping rates to react to a flop in oil prices. Inflation might hurt consumer spending. But raising rates will hurt it more. Oil has recovered but will be headed back down again. And speaking of heading down, the Dow looks horrible. Lower lows and lower highs. Correction will become bear very soon. Summer will be ugly for markets.
Yes rates will go up. But it will be 10 years before you will be renewing at anything above 5%.
Kilt

The minimum mortgage stress test level is now 5.14%. – Garth

#11 Stan Brooks on 04.26.18 at 5:51 pm

#10 Kilt on 04.26.18 at 5:41 pm
Rubbish. They have raised rates 3 times. 2 were to make up for dropping rates to react to a flop in oil prices. Inflation might hurt consumer spending. But raising rates will hurt it more. Oil has recovered but will be headed back down again. And speaking of heading down, the Dow looks horrible. Lower lows and lower highs. Correction will become bear very soon. Summer will be ugly for markets.
Yes rates will go up. But it will be 10 years before you will be renewing at anything above 5%.
Kilt

=====================

You are very mistaken about oil at this phase (late) of the credit cycle/which is bullish for commodities.

Oil and gold will double from here despite interest rate increases.

And you know what?

The Scheiße dollah/aka the lonnie/aka the Polzo peso will dive against the USD despite the increase in commodity prices and you will see soon 3 $ gas per liter at the pump, 4 $ coffee.

No you say?
Just watch out.

#12 NotLegalAdvice on 04.26.18 at 6:05 pm

Why does it matter than the stress test is at 5.14, when people that pass the test can still afford houses at an interest of 3.65?

Majority of the banks are still offering low interest mortgages (but the damn value is still too high). Wouldn’t you rather pay higher interest with a lower principal owing? (Ie a 500k house opposed to a 1 million dollar home).

#13 Felix on 04.26.18 at 6:12 pm

Things may get so damn boring this bog will shudder to a halt, then reopen as an online, sub-prime lender. With a cat theme.

————————————————————–

You’ll be raising the IQ requirements of your readers then, Garth. Dogs attract dummies.

A great plan – we’ll be here to help .

Meow )

#14 TheDood on 04.26.18 at 6:14 pm

#10 Kilt on 04.26.18 at 5:41 pm

…….Yes rates will go up. But it will be 10 years before you will be renewing at anything above 5%.

Kilt.

The minimum mortgage stress test level is now 5.14%. – Garth

____________________________________

LOL!

Free education for financially illiterate.

In 10 years, all will be renewing at 10% (or more!)

#15 rental property math on 04.26.18 at 6:14 pm

Garth when are my weed stocks going to go up? I was a financial genius in January when they peaked but now not so much. TD rates all my picks as “Buy” or “Strong Buy”, same with yahoo finance. The last senate vote is June 7 so it still needs to be voted as legal. Will big financial institutions buy in after that? All of the companies I chose had large bought deal offerings at share prices higher than my costs. Shouldn’t be any more dilution. Does that mean I’m good? They would have done more due diligence than me. I only know rental property math.

#16 Whimp on 04.26.18 at 6:21 pm

#4 Stan Brooks
I agree, high gas prices will happen and end life as we know it in North America. Rising rates will add to the pain, but I have a feeling interest rates will drop back down when high oil/gas prices cause a deep recession. I’m already seeing the squeeze on people with things like sales of snowmobiles dropping for years. With people struggling to pay their mortgage and being completely house poor, they’ve been borrowing like crazy, once they can’t do that anymore, the only sales that will be going up will be cat food. Most seem to already have their credit cards maxed, once the HELOC is tapped, she’s all over, US cerca 2007 or Greece. The numbers are all there it’s just a matter of time until we see another financial crises. We’re in the “Jagged peak” of the peak oil paradigm, overdue for another trough. Climbing oil prices will make this happen

#17 jess on 04.26.18 at 6:26 pm

also the mexican election july?

The leading candidate, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, wants to reverse policies that have tied a knot between Mexico and the United States in recent years in energy production and consumption. And he has promised to make sure that oil never falls “back into the hands of foreigners.”

https://www.nytimes.com/topic/person/andres-manuel-lopez-obrador

#18 IMHO on 04.26.18 at 6:30 pm

Low inflation is 2%?

So in a short 25 yrs, your cash will lose 50% of its value.

Got it ;)

#19 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.26.18 at 6:31 pm

Gas still climbing in the Lower Brainland.
I spotted $158.9 in Port Coquitlam today…….

#20 Corban on 04.26.18 at 6:37 pm

I think my rental condo in abbotsford has gone up 30% this year. I’m dumping it as soon as i can.

My brother’s townhouse in aldergrove seems to have doubled in price in the last five years, and will net him a cool 200k if he sells now.

I would consider both of these properties to be on the really low end. Nuckin futz!

#21 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.26.18 at 6:38 pm

@#178 Headhunter
“why in this day and age would one “work their ass off” thats what slaves had to do…”oh wait a minute”

+++++
I’ve found that most people that “work their asses off” control the slaves……..

Let me guess.
Commission based income?
Job placing people in “the perfect job”?
Network with Human Resources people?
The same people who know how to “game the system ” to abuse stress leave for themselves?
Whats the going rate for job placing these days?
3 months salary? 6 months?

#22 Whatcha Minnie on 04.26.18 at 6:39 pm

Well, we flew to Denver, rented a truck & trailer, then camped all over the Colorado Rockies. Then we drove to Utah & have visited “The Arches”, “Zion National Park”, and today “Bryce Canyon”. Utah has amazing rock formation sites and people come here from all over the world. It’s been a great vacation. I just hate driving inches from cliffs!

#23 pay your taxes on 04.26.18 at 6:40 pm

#17 Jess

“The leading candidate, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, wants to reverse policies that have tied a knot between Mexico and the United States in recent years in energy production and consumption. And he has promised to make sure that oil never falls “back into the hands of foreigners.”

The cemeteries of Central and South America are well populated by deceased politicians who had similar sentiments. Maybe he should stick to traveling by bus for the foreseeable future.

#24 Ardy on 04.26.18 at 6:45 pm

#142 For those about to flop… on 04.26.18 at 11:23 am
#92 Ardy on 04.26.18 at 1:26 am
Flop, you are a gentleman.

-RD

#121 Penny Henny on 04.26.18 at 9:13 am
#9 Ardy on 04.25.18 at 8:02 pm
Mr. Flop,

I don’t think you do GTA, but if you can get details on 119 Via Toscana, Woodbridge, Ontario, I’d be rather amused.

Cheers,
-RD

////////////////

no sale showing for the last 180 days- Penny Henny.

//////////////////

Hey RD ,don’t thank me yet.

Is this this information you wanted?

If not maybe you can be a bit more specific.

Also thanks Penn for stepping up and maybe you can follow up on my behalf,thanks in advance.

We’ve got a nationwide network here ,and some people think that the country is crumbling, let’s help each other out when we can and whatever the future may hold hopefully we can stay one step ahead and limit any damage to our lives.

The boss of this blog makes a sacrifice for this blog and I for one am grateful…

M43BC

Thanks Flop and Penn!!!!!

It just hit the market that day so chances were slim the public had much info, but you folks are RE wizards.

Here’s a link of what I found today. https://www.rew.ca/properties/N4107461/119-via-toscana-vaughan-on

Might help, might not…. but I appreciate your efforts.

-RD

#25 Dave on 04.26.18 at 6:47 pm

DELETED

#26 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 04.26.18 at 6:53 pm

Five Fed hikes and four by our bank in the space of a year is not ‘a token quarter point hike here and there.’ Stop lying to the children. – Garth
……………………..

Current BOC rate is 1.25%. What a joke. And rates will stay as low as possible for as long as possible to prevent defaults from happening. And if defaults start happening rates will be frozen and will not rise for a long time. Solvency is more important than inflation.

#27 MSM-Free Zone on 04.26.18 at 6:54 pm

REALTURD®’s continue to push Millennials (and their parents) into catching a falling knife:

“…..Their reduced buying power is causing some Toronto-area buyers to reconsider re-sale homes in favour of new construction homes because the 20 per cent downpayment is staggered so they have more time to come up with the money, said Royal LePage sales representative Tom Storey.

“…They know they’ll be in a better financial position when the property closes. They’re willing to wait that two or three years for it to come to market just based on what they’ve been approved for now……”

“….Even though they can usually afford their monthly mortgage payments, he says almost all his first-time millennial home buyers need help from their parents to afford a downpayment….”

“…Half of my job is just talking the parents through it, because they’re involved. They’re not just involved financially, they want to come to the showings,” said Storey….”

#28 conan on 04.26.18 at 6:55 pm

Dr Garth’s Eee Zee loans, has a ring to it.

Today’s guest poster: Rasta Cat

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=30mWjoftB0s

#29 Where's The Money Guido? on 04.26.18 at 7:01 pm

Five Fed hikes and four by our bank in the space of a year is not ‘a token quarter point hike here and there.’ Stop lying to the children. – Garth

Why would you Delete my post, I wasn’t libeling anyone, just showing links to Canadian stories of $13 billion in Chinese property investment in one year in Vancouver. Are these ppl lying?
Wazzup?

Take your anti-Chinese bias elsewhere. – Garth

#30 The Wet One on 04.26.18 at 7:03 pm

A CAT THEME!?!?!?!?!??!

ZOMG!!!!!

ALL IS LOST! THE END IS NIGH!!! REPENT YE SINNERS!!! REPENT!!!!

#31 Nonplused on 04.26.18 at 7:05 pm

“And it wants people to stop snorfling debt like crazed truffle pigs.”

Well,they can’t, because taxes are too dang high, and more are coming. If you live in a province where the HST is say 11% and now carbon taxes are coming which is in essence just another HST of qt least 11% (because it compounds, it’s not charged just at the consumer purchase point but at every step alone the manufacture, so it is probably much higher but let’s use 11% for now), you effectively have to pay 22% tax on everything you buy even if you have no income! Even a new house! It takes a lot of energy to turn all those trees into OSB and ship it out to the suburbs.

If you live in a high rise you are paying carbon taxes just to ride the elevator to your floor. Poor Garth has to pay carbon taxes just to keep the ice cream frozen.
They truly are a tax on everything.

So how is a salaried person to get ahead in this environment? If our salaried person lives in Ontario and makes a modest amount of say $70,000 a year, his tax rate is already 25%. $17,000 a year is already out the door for federal, provincial and CPP/EI. Put an 11% HST and then a carbon tax on top of all of this and he or she is truly screwed, glued and tattooed before they even think about buying a house. So the only way out for someone who wants to maintain the semblance of the “Canadian lifestyle” is to embrace continuously escalating levels of personal debt, which is what we clearly see in the numbers.

Well, there is one other way out for our salaried person, and that is for them to adjust their lifestyle to match their income. But if everyone did that it would be a complete disaster for the Canadian economy, at least in the short term. New house construction would cease, car sales would plummet, even the Apple store would be empty. Heck you might even see a resurgence in land lines at the expense of cell phone sales. And of course that sort of scenario would lead to all kinds of job losses and a deep recession, which would only make matters worse and spiral downward. We definitely don’t want that to happen, so the borrowing much continue. It cannot at this point be stopped, because taxes are too darn high and they are increasingly targeted at consumption rather than income.

As anyone who has read one of my comments before knows I really hate the carbon tax, it is one of the most underhanded taxes on the poor ever devised. We have been on an efficiency drive in this country since the 70’s. It just isn’t yet possible to build mass housing much more efficiently than we already do. It’s damn near impossible to find an incandescent light bulb anymore and the government is lately practically giving away LED lights. Car engines are approaching the thermodynamic limits for efficiency so the only way to go there is smaller and lighter until we are all riding scooters in the snow. Or maybe bicycles.

When Nutley imposed the carbon tax on everything here in Alberta, she both disingenuously under described how much money it was going to cost people, she also didn’t give everyone a $2000/year after tax raise to cover it. So for most people it either comes out of the HELOC or Johnie stops playing hockey and Sally stops piano lessons. There never really was anywhere else for it to come from for most people. A few free LED light bulbs were never going to help, lighting is not a major source of power consumption within a house. These are, in rough order, the furnace, the air conditioner, the clothes dryer, the hot water tank, the stove, the washing machine. Lights make very little difference, unless you’ve got yourself an air conditioned office. And all of those major loads are already approaching thermodynamic limits for efficiency as well. Stoves will never be efficient just because of how they work but the microwave oven sure is. I guess Nutley wants us all to go buy a clothes line and put our nickers out in the yard like some third world country. That is going to make laundry day a lot more cumbersome. Also condo dwellers probably can’t, unless the built up areas start to resemble 1920’s New York. Clothes lines running over the street between buildings. Yes, that is exactly where this is going. You can’t make an electric heating element any more efficient than it already is. It’s pretty near 100% already. Maybe you can vent the dryer into your greenhouse but that only works when the dryer is running so now you have a greenhouse to heat too, and that is not very efficient.

So it doesn’t matter what they do with rates, personal debt will continue up until it breaks. Higher interest rates will only speed the coming of the reckoning.

#32 Parksville Prankster on 04.26.18 at 7:14 pm

… all may be a moot point going forward. According to the Huff, the ‘average’ peak Millennial can only afford to carry 200K worth of housing on their own, or 400K as a couple… that might buy a double wide on a quarter acre out near Coombs here on the island, but not much else…

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2018/04/26/heres-how-much-home-canadas-peak-millennials-can-afford_a_23421000/?utm_hp_ref=ca-homepage

#33 Rargary on 04.26.18 at 7:20 pm

Bloomberg tonight… TD raised mortgage rates 0.45 pts!! It’s a coming! Buckle down! Huddle with your family in the cellar! Till the damage is done… We are not in Kansas anymore folks! Thank you Garth for your dedication and spreading your wisdom… climb out of debt folks! Invest and save..

#34 Triplenet on 04.26.18 at 7:29 pm

The Florida Marlins baseball team investors are paying Larry 12%. So 8.5% with Firm is a “steal”.

#35 Dog in The Fight on 04.26.18 at 7:29 pm

TaDa

#36 RentingMySkyBox on 04.26.18 at 7:30 pm

On alt lenders: High risk of default brings more headaches than just high interest. To underwriters, hight default risk is also a high risk of fraud… ahm… I mean, “fire” when things go south. Many insurers won’t cover a property that has alt financing attached to it. And if they do go on-risk for one of these properties, you better believe the premiums will reflect that risk.

#37 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 04.26.18 at 7:31 pm

#22 Whatcha Minnie on 04.26.18 at 6:39 pm
Well, we flew to Denver, rented a truck & trailer, then camped all over the Colorado Rockies. Then we drove to Utah & have visited “The Arches”, “Zion National Park”, and today “Bryce Canyon”. Utah has amazing rock formation sites and people come here from all over the world. It’s been a great vacation. I just hate driving inches from cliffs!
………………………………

I laughed so hard when you fell off the trapeze at the strip club the other night. I swear it wasn’t me that cut the cable ! But I did see a bearded man who shall remain nameless ( Garth ) making a quick exit on a motorcycle. Is it itchy under the body cast ?

#38 Kelsey on 04.26.18 at 7:32 pm

Stan Brooks is right about the CP-Lie as Mike Maloney likes to call it. The government keeps changing how CPI is calculated (hedonic pricing, substitution effect, etc.) The goal is to inflate away massive amounts of debt and unfunded liabilities without the public catching on. Statistical lies by Western governments are just less egregious than in Communist Russia or Orwell’s 1984.

The rate hikes are window-dressing dragged out as long as possible to continue the “recovery” narrative and maintain confidence in fiat dollars and our giant socialist welfare state. Central Banks coordinate so that when one major bank tightens the others are easing, flooding the globe with additional liquidity.

Does anyone here believe we could get to an overnight rate of 5%-6% without completely imploding the system? 1.25% is a joke and they whiffed on the last hike. US 2/10 yield curve will be inverted by this time next year and Fed Funds will be barely above 2%. Unless of course there is a total breakdown in the bond market before then, in which case the US will have to default or launch QE4.

#39 Zapstrap on 04.26.18 at 7:33 pm

#31 Nonplused on 04.26.18 at 7:05 pm
I guess Nutley wants us all to go buy a clothes line and put our nickers out in the yard like some third world country.

I knew a guy that used to like looking at his neighbors nickers.

#40 Dave on 04.26.18 at 7:34 pm

DELETED

#41 For those about to flop... on 04.26.18 at 7:38 pm

Hey RD,I don’t know Ontario that well but at first you asked me about a house in Woobridge and if you look into it then a house in Vaughan comes up as well.

When I looked last night there were two 119 Via Toscanas.

One in Woodbridge and one in Vaughan.

Is this the same house,you wanted the info on?

Or are you just testing me to see if I am an amateur or semi-professional.

Don’t worry the rate is the same…

M43BC

#42 Bob Dog on 04.26.18 at 7:38 pm

I think the answer to our problems is the move the capital of Canada to Vancouver.

After 2 years of this horror show, the tools running this country into 3rd world territory would change their toon. The situation would change drastically.

Let the politicians experience some of their own corruption and criminality.

Im about to just give up and retire to st john. Working for a living in BC is futile.

https://www.royallepage.ca/en/property/new-brunswick/saint-john/83-university-avenue/7620660/mlsnb002503/

#43 Former TD employee on 04.26.18 at 7:39 pm

Inflation has increased by over 50% on items like goat cheese that sold for $6.00 last year, but now it’s at over $8.99.

The Bank of Canada also aims for a 60-cent Loonie to boost exports of wheat, canola, crude oil and feminism.

#44 Our pal val on 04.26.18 at 7:40 pm

HELOC= home equity loss of credit…BIS rules…. this all happened because gommurment has no pension money for you so ..cash out while prices are still high.

#45 Willy H on 04.26.18 at 7:41 pm

“Low inflation – about 2%.”

A Federal Reserve and BoC franken-number that factors out residential realestate price increases, petrol (gas) prices, and education costs increasing at almost double the posted inflation rate for years.

I shop each week and the price increases in most grocery stores are astonishing OR price remains the same but package quantity is cut by a third.

#46 Our pal val on 04.26.18 at 7:42 pm

#26 defaults are good it replenish the housing stock

#47 Jim on 04.26.18 at 7:46 pm

DELETED

#48 For those about to flop... on 04.26.18 at 7:47 pm

O.k so I just learned my Canadian lesson for the day.

Woodbridge is a suburb of the city of Vaughan and depending on who listed the house some realtors used the suburb and some realtors used the city.

I think it is best if I delegate this case to my Ontario brokerage of Pink Snow…

M43BC

#49 Kilt on 04.26.18 at 7:48 pm

Stress test and rates are two different things. You don’t pay interest on a stress test. I follow you though. Three more rate increases and Canada is toast.

Kilt

#50 Deane Brooker on 04.26.18 at 7:52 pm

Garth, Is this a buying opportunity on Preferreds? We are down a bit lately..

#51 Gas Prices Rising! on 04.26.18 at 7:54 pm

19 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.26.18 at 6:31 pm

Gas still climbing in the Lower Brainland.
I spotted $158.9 in Port Coquitlam today…….
*************************************************
My wife complained about the rising gas prices too – then I told her that we own lots of energy stocks and we’ll get very, very wealthy because of this (and then buy a Tesla).
“How about ‘gold’, she asked! My reply was, ‘gold’ will make us ‘filthy’ rich!
“And how about marijuana?”
Now that will just get us … ‘high’!

TCC

#52 50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE! on 04.26.18 at 8:00 pm

Boston 7, pathetic wannabe City of Losers 4

Nothing world class about Toronto, only stupid sheeple want to live there, gambling everything on ridiculous housing “investments” that are all about to implode, just like their imitation hockey team.

The Loser Leafs, by the way, have now one of the oldest rosters in the NHL, not the youngest.

Yep, this awful, incompetent season was the best you will all see for another generation. Just like Toronto’s “peak house” moment this past year, it’s all downhill from here for the Leafs. (Maybe the GM will trade away more draft picks for some aging ‘star’ to add to the lineup – that worked so well before, LOL!!!!)

The same delusional idiocy that fuelled the GTA housing bubble is behind the strange support for this deplorable, incompetent sports franchise.

You are bottom of the barrel, Toronto.

Bwahaahaahaahaaahaahaahaaaaaaa!!!!

51 YEARS AND COUNTING!

#53 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.26.18 at 8:02 pm

@#30 The Wet One
“ALL IS LOST! THE END IS NIGH!!! REPENT YE SINNERS!!! REPENT!!!!”
++++++

Apocalypse2018’s evil twin?

#54 For those about to flop... on 04.26.18 at 8:12 pm

#22 Whatcha Minnie on 04.26.18 at 6:39 pm
Well, we flew to Denver, rented a truck & trailer, then camped all over the Colorado Rockies. Then we drove to Utah & have visited “The Arches”, “Zion National Park”, and today “Bryce Canyon”. Utah has amazing rock formation sites and people come here from all over the world. It’s been a great vacation. I just hate driving inches from cliffs!

//////////////////

You’re going to have to come up with a new schtick now that you’ve been busted…

M43BC

https://www.yelp.com/topic/san-jose-where-did-you-go-on-your-last-vacation

#55 fishman on 04.26.18 at 8:26 pm

Where’s this B.C. recession coming from? Lumber: the price is so high that the mills are paying truckers for 14 hour round trips for a load of logs. 20% tariff means nothing.Nothing in the yards for spring breakup cause no logging truck drivers. Movie industry: everything booked for months. Education: its the biggest industry in Vantown & there’s no shortage of students.Distribution: port,full tilt, it isn’t our oil or wheat thats being sold. As long as the gantries bring in containers of Chinese crap & our coal lumber etc. leaves everything fine. Tourism: please stay home, please, please, don’t come here, its full. Oh I know the dippers are putting the gloomy on R/E. Sorry ROC. I guess you didn’t get the memo that the feds have donated all their excess RCMP & DOD bases plus whatever spare acres they could scrape up to the natives. The natives are going to be the biggest R/E developers in the next decades. In case you didn’t get that memo, the Natives don’t go by our government ,they got their own.
Besides, be careful what you wish for. What B.C. is now is a precursor to what awaits ROC.
One more time: B.C. is the gateway to the Pacific. The third millennium is the age of the Pacific. Atlantic #2, Mediterranean #3. Just the inevitability of history.

#56 Clearwater on 04.26.18 at 8:27 pm

Ramblings in the comment section about inflation and low IQ is dumb. Everyone has a difirent measure. Best to get over being right and accept the narative for what it is. The gov makes decisions on their numbers. The system will work itself out, likely without a mojor catastrphy to the economy.

The biggest risk i see is in policy mistakes for political reasons in canada, not fiscal ones. We have rejected 100billion in private infrastructure investment in the energy industry in the last few years. Tge economy should be booming.

#57 Smoking Man on 04.26.18 at 8:28 pm

16 fourty theird at at in shlong branch.
Listed for 296 days down to 699k no takers.
According to zolo 58% decline on 2 bedroom bungees.
Last year 1.3m This year 563k

It’s getting ugly out there..

#58 Reynolds531 on 04.26.18 at 8:31 pm

I signed my first mortgage twenty years ago at 6.35.

I signed the last one six months ago at 2.64.

I like this one better. Gonna ride that as far as she can run.

#59 Reality is stark on 04.26.18 at 8:47 pm

Politicians like Kathleen Wynne who love taxes and debt financing are brilliant. You don’t have to manage anything, you just spend like a drunken sailor and throw money that is not yours at any problems that arise.
To top it all off you tell everyone how hard you are working and the people are stupid enough to believe you.
The people of Ontario are equally as stupid as the people of Venezuela. We believe that debt leads you to the promised land.

#60 crossbordershopper on 04.26.18 at 8:56 pm

i would gladly pay 8.5% for a mortgage, anytime, when the bank saids no, like what do you do, you have no choice, i have paid 10% last year, paid in full, i know people who go to pay day loans and have 4500 balance paying 45% interest rates, paying 2 or 3 is fantasy land for millions of canadians with no collateral, no verifiable income, working paycheque to paycheque.
bank loans are for regular people who have a job etc, not for the millions of people with spotty credit, spotty income, no collateral. a huge market out there to exploit,
the banks dont even know or care about this market, where in reality that is where the market is, sure they went high end, getting crazy management expense ratio of 2.5% to buy a bank stock, crazy why pay 19 a month when they can take thousands for “managing” your money.
scam scam and other scam its all about money,
but i am happy, i have cash and no debt now, but i paid and now i am good.

#61 Game Over on 04.26.18 at 9:10 pm

Everyone keeps saying “the recovery”, but can you still say it after 10 years? Are we just 89 years in to the recovery of the Great Depression?

Poloz does a lot of things that aren’t in the mandate of the central bank. There was absolotely no reason for him to cut the rates in 2015 by 50% but he did and single handedly put the icing on the cake for insane house prices. Now he is in between a rock and hard place because we wants to maintain price stability now but he can’t because people are so far in debt. Its either house prices cave in the economy or inflation caves it in by not hiking.

#62 Buddy on 04.26.18 at 9:11 pm

Great bleeping post Gartho. An era of nothingness and bleak returns. We’ll see what happens with the rates though. 3% and it tops says history. Ill be glad I didnt buy a house in the past 5 years only when I see the yield continue up from here.

#63 Fiendish Thingy on 04.26.18 at 9:13 pm

So, if Garth’s predictions are correct, by next summer stress test rates could be above 7%, and alt rates could be in the double digits…

Ah, no. – Garth

#64 Myra Andrews on 04.26.18 at 9:13 pm

Greater Vancouver Stats from realtor Paul Boenisch

April 26 New 208 Sold 161 TI 10,332
April 25 New 239 Sold 123 TI 10,345
April 24 New 323 Sold 136 TI 10,299
April 23 New 385 Sold 145 TI 10,180

April 20 no post from Paul
April 19 New 211 Sold 133 TI 10,006
April 18 New 266 Sold 128 TI 9989
April 17 New 297 Sold 120 TI 9898
April 16 New 377 Sold 191 TI 9799

April 13 New 152 Sold 137 TI 9727
April 12 New 199 Sold 112 TI 9748
April 11 New 248 Sold 101 TI 9709
April 10 no post from Paul
April 9 New 382 Sold 117 TI 9450

April 6 no post from Paul
April 5 New 268 Sold 164 TI 9264
April 4 New 324 Sold 154 TI 9204
April 3 New 538 Sold 131 TI 9104

Mar 26-29 New 793 Sold 455 TI 9032
Mar 19-23 New 1041 Sold 617 TI 8916
Mar 12-16 New 1147 Sold 682 TI 8743
Mar 5-9 New 1101 Sold 542 TI 8510

#65 DON on 04.26.18 at 9:26 pm

“Google “NDP Economics” instead.

No recession (except in BC).”

*************************

Chumming the waters tonight?

#66 DON on 04.26.18 at 9:31 pm

Blink…

Letter sent via press release. What leadership!

“McKenna pens open letter to B.C. proposing joint panel to study oil spills, response measures
Panel offer from federal government meant to help address concerns over possible spill off B.C. coast”

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/mckenna-heyman-joint-science-panel-1.4637275.

Still that pesky First Nations court challenge.

#67 Balmuto on 04.26.18 at 9:38 pm

This is huge. And TD has a reputation for being first on interest rate changes, so don’t be surprised if other banks follow:

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2018-04-26/toronto-dominion-lifts-mortgage-rate-in-biggest-move-in-years

#68 Headhunter on 04.26.18 at 9:41 pm

crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.26.18 at 6:38 pm
+++++
I’ve found that most people that “work their asses off” control the slaves……..

_______________________________________

nah pure illusion the people who you speak are really just supervisors on the taxfarm, just a little closer to the masters house and they get a few more crumbs.. to keep the other cows in place

Ya im a 100% commish. I’m second guessing myself as when I was a younger man I did a 9000 hour apprenticeship and am a fully qualified Electrician. Spent 2 years at the Dome.. was 22 years old raking in 1800 week clean (working 7/10’s)Maybe I should have just got a gig with the TTC, School Board, Hydro I’d be retired now with 5-6K coming in a month.. never miss a pay day in your life.

#69 Where's The Money Guido? on 04.26.18 at 9:43 pm

DELETED

#70 Headhunter on 04.26.18 at 9:44 pm

OK “weed stocks?” I’m no expert but take the profit. State of Oregon grows 3 times the weed they can consume. Think about that.

Will be the same here in Canada. Everyone and their aunt will be growing the shit.

#71 Ghosts of Temple Past on 04.26.18 at 9:47 pm

Things may get so damn boring this bog will shudder to a halt, then reopen as an online, sub-prime lender. With a cat theme.

And maybe then you’ll quit censoring people who disagree with you politically?

Only the xenophobes and haters get punted. – Garth

#72 DON on 04.26.18 at 9:48 pm

“McKenna pens open letter to B.C. proposing joint panel to study oil spills, response measures
Panel offer from federal government meant to help address concerns over possible spill off B.C. coast”
*************************

BC will bring ‘green’ science and the
feds will bring the drama and pouty looks.

#73 For those about to flop... on 04.26.18 at 9:49 pm

Got my Loblaws card today.

It was supposed to buy my silence ,but I have bigger plans for those bunch of cat scratchers.

Tomorrow I am going down there to buy $25 worth of bread.

I will then go outside and smother the slices of bread in Nutella ,one by one ,and fling them at the windows until a paddy wagon pulls up.

They better place an order for cleaning products.

The crowd will chant.

You’re going home in the back of a paddy wagon…

M43BC

Watch this short clip.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=8xc1_JUE_mI

#74 INTO THE SUNSET on 04.26.18 at 9:59 pm

Carbon Tax is a scam on the world populations. Please
Research Professor Ian Plimer.

Please read below.

When the volcano Mt Pinatubo erupted in the Philippines in 1991, it spewed out more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere than the entire human race had emitted in all its years on earth and Mt Pinatubo was active for over One year – think about it.

Another the bombshell. The volcanic eruption in Iceland. Since its first spewing of volcanic ash,in just FOUR DAYS, NEGATED EVERY SINGLE EFFORT made in the past five years to control CO2 emissions on our planet.

Of course, this evil carbon dioxide that we are trying to suppress – it’s that vital chemical compound that every plant requires to live and grow and to synthesize into oxygen for us humans and all animal life.

It’s very disheartening to realize that all of the carbon emission savings you have accomplished while suffering the inconvenience and expense of driving Prius hybrids, buying fabric grocery bags, sitting up till midnight to finish your kids “The Green Revolution” science project, throwing out all of your non-green cleaning supplies, using only two squares of toilet paper, putting a brick in your toilet tank reservoir, selling your SUV and speedboat, vacationing at home instead of abroad,nearly getting hit every day on your bicycle, replacing all of your 50 cent light bulbs with $10.00 light bulbs…..well, all of those things you have done was all gone down the tubes in just four days!

Volcanic ash emitted into the Earth’s atmosphere in just four days – yes, FOUR DAYS – by that volcano in Iceland has totally erased every single effort you have made to reduce the evil beast, carbon. And there are around 200 active volcanoes on the planet spewing out this crud at any one time – EVERY DAY.

Let Justin T and the rest of the politicians know the facts.
Let us not be taken into accepting another unnecessary tax!!

#75 Myra Andrews on 04.26.18 at 10:06 pm

#22 Whatcha Minnie

Verbatim from a Yelp posting from June 2014
“Where did you go on your last vacation?
in Travel”

Ruthie V. San Jose, CA
463 friends 703 reviews
Elite ’18

I’m in Utah right now. We flew to Denver, rented a truck & trailer, then camped all over the Colorado Rockies. Then we drove to Utah & have visited “The Arches”, “Zion National Park”, and today “Bryce Canyon”. Utah has amazing rock formation sites and people come here from all over the world. It’s been a great vacation. I just hate driving inches from cliffs!

6/19/2014

#76 Ghosts of Temple Past on 04.26.18 at 10:07 pm

Only the xenophobes and haters get punted. – Garth

Nonsense, of course. You have plenty of xenophobes and haters on here but you silently booted a bunch of us who support the BC speculation tax. You just don’t like me (and my ilk) because I use facts and I am kinda on the left on most subjects.

#77 Danforth on 04.26.18 at 10:15 pm

Yay to the proposed cat theme!! :)

#78 Brandon on 04.26.18 at 10:22 pm

Stan Brooks needs to comment on here more often. One of the few people who actually gets it. Long vol; long commodities; short CDN$; short BC RE

#79 Disgruntled on 04.26.18 at 10:34 pm

“The Bank of Canada took a pass this month, so now markets are giving 76% odds that the cost of money (including mortgages) will go up on July 11th.”

Oops I answered this in the wrong comment section. Anyway with poloz in charge I put it closer to a 1% chance they raise rather than 76%.

#80 CalgaryCarGuy on 04.26.18 at 10:36 pm

Re #155 by Brett in Calgary from yesterday

#25 Nonplused & #84 EV expert

In the spirit of a friendly discussion on carbon tax, EV’s save the average family about $200/year in tax (link provided by EV expert).

In financial terms this is largely meaningless when a new Nissan Leaf runs at $40K on Autotrader while a new Nissan Sentra costs $18.5K.

Of course I am stating the obvious when I say it would take many years for that differential to even out.
——————————————————————
As a 25 year Nissan dealership employee myself…you are absolutely spot on. You don’t buy a Leaf to save money…you buy it to be environmentally friendly. A Sentra is much better value. I own a 2014 Sentra with a 6 speed manual as a commuter car. 100 kms a day, 6 liters/100 average….best has been 4.9. 114000 current kms and almost no issues. I expect to clock 400-500000 kms on this car.

#81 Millmech on 04.26.18 at 10:44 pm

Ian
Told you rates are going up, another.40 in July if BOC raises theirs, what are people going to do, bank owns them.
The next shoe to come down is no haggling on rates take it or leave it, let the shearing begin.
PS
I bet rates are hitting 7% by year end!

#82 Fish on 04.26.18 at 11:01 pm

Stan Brooks is like water under a bridge

#83 paracho on 04.26.18 at 11:04 pm

The US sneezes and we feel the effects . Our Central Bank has to follow US policy or we face negative consequences as a result .
By not raising rates we end up devaluing our currency . Which is already too low .
There is a high probability that Poliz and his team will raise rates in accordance with US rates . If not July 11 then the next meet . Maybe even both meets with have a rate hike !
Many will not be happy with their real estate investments made on leverage . Large leverage .
Garth summed up our policy goals in the best way possible in the following quote :
What does the Bank of Canada desire?

Simple. Low inflation – about 2%. A stable, range-bound currency around 80 cents. Steady economic growth of maybe two per cent. And it wants people to stop snorfling debt like crazed truffle pigs.

I think these are great goals !

#84 Mark on 04.26.18 at 11:19 pm

No recession? Really? Has Canada *ever* transitioned from one sector that was responsible for an overwhelming amount of economic activity, to another, without a recession during the interlude?

Is there really anything waiting in the wings that will re-employ the workers associated with the 25%+ of GDP that is associated with the RE sector?

Rate cuts, and deflation right around the corner. Doubt there’s anything stopping it. Buy those CAD$, they’ll be of increasing value going forward as they’re the only thing that CAD$ denominated debt can be paid with.

#85 SunnyDays on 04.26.18 at 11:40 pm

#3 Stan Brooks on 04.26.18 at 5:11 pm

“Inflation has been steady at least 6-8 % yearly…”

In Toronto 6-8% inflation rate is about right. For example, Ontario Gov’t increased service fees by 8% from the prior year:
http://www.fao-on.org/en/Blog/Publications/service-fees

Today’s blog entry says: “money streams out of equities and into safer havens”

This is where it gets interesting, because the 60/40 balanced portfolio assumes safe haven = bonds. We have a clear and present danger that stocks and bonds may sell off meaningfully at the same time.

Post-2008 Financial Crisis, the US Federal Reserve deformed the “risk free rate of return” of the 10-year treasury with ZIRP and QE creating a buyer of bonds at any price for almost a decade.

The 10 year treasury is the foundation of the entire financial system, and its yield was artificially suppressed. As a result, risk assets were mispriced and bubbles were blown. Now that the “risk free” rate is increasing, we will see re-pricing of risk assets with unintended consequences.

Bonds are vulnerable to capital losses in a rising interest rate environment. Especially when their rates have been kept artificially low at floor-level for such a long time.

#86 Fish on 04.26.18 at 11:51 pm

RE yesterday @ 38 Mac on 04.25.18 at 8:46 pm
…and dumb ass Canadians can’t seem to figure out why they are broke. Still blaming it on the notion that the “rich” have somehow stolen from them and must be punished. Unreal. Absolutely unreal.

How can people be so utterly daft, dim witted, and slow to not fully grasp the fact that the institution of government IS responsible for the overwhelming amount of the issues people are wailing about – not the solution.

*******
Agree

#87 Playing Monoply on 04.26.18 at 11:56 pm

What’s with Watcha Miine #22 today???????

copied and pasted from

https://www.yelp.com/topic/san-jose-where-did-you-go-on-your-last-vacation

Please BAN this sort of ridiculous behaviour

#88 PastThePeak on 04.27.18 at 12:00 am

I agree that BoC rates will rise a bit, but disagree with Garth on the size. All of the public comments I have read from Poloz indicate a very dovish approach. Basically raise rates only if the data is overwhelming.

I expect one rate increase in July or September, and then that is it for the year. While a possibility of another in December, my bet is on January 2019 as the next (and will depend).

The guy is more liberal than the Liberals. Harper / Flaherty must have quickly regretted his appointment.

#89 Victor V on 04.27.18 at 12:10 am

“Biggest move in years”: TD lifts 5-year fixed mortgage rate

https://www.bnn.ca/biggest-move-in-years-td-lifts-5-year-fixed-mortgage-rate-1.1067804

Toronto-Dominion Bank has lifted its posted rate for five-year fixed mortgages by 45 basis points to 5.59 per cent as government bond yields touched their highest levels since 2011 this week.

“It’s a big move, the biggest move in years,” said Rob McLister, founder of RateSpy.com, a mortgage comparison website. “There’s a lot of reasons why that could be — maybe they’re taking a position on rates going forward, which is not that typical; maybe they’re trying to get people to lock in and generate better spreads.”

Toronto-Dominion, Canada’s second-largest lender, lifted its five-year closed rate on Wednesday, along with increases to its two-year, three-year, six-year and seven-year mortgage rates, bank spokeswoman Julie Bellissimo said Thursday in an e-mailed statement.

#90 WM on 04.27.18 at 12:18 am

#74: false

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/earthtalks-volcanoes-or-humans

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/georgemonbiot/2009/dec/16/ian-plimer-versus-george-monbiot

#91 will on 04.27.18 at 12:40 am

yup. got shares in Firm Capital.

#92 TS on 04.27.18 at 12:55 am

RE #80

Nobody buys a leaf for 40k. The smart money buys a lease back with 40k kms for 10k. EVs depreciate like crazy.

#93 Stan Is Right on 04.27.18 at 1:10 am

#9 Stan Brooks

You are right, but sadly you have to face a World where if the average IQ is 90 that means half the population has an IQ of less than 90. I feel your pain and totally agree. Many people on this blog are lost but you’re not.

#94 Stan Is Right on 04.27.18 at 1:20 am

I’m totally confused by people that think anyone cares what they did on the weekend? Garth puts in enormous time creating his blog to help people and create a forum to discus real estate, investments and general stupidity when it comes to investing. Welcome it, appreciate it and cherish it, because I have a feeling it won’t last much longer. Just saying. Thank you Garth.

#95 Leo Trollstoy on 04.27.18 at 1:25 am

Aww Brokaw we hardly knew yaw

http://thehill.com/homenews/media/385124-two-women-allege-tom-brokaw-acted-inappropriately-toward-them-in-the-90s

#96 Smoking Man on 04.27.18 at 1:49 am

When you can’t defend your argument you put the word phobe at the end of an invented word in a futile attempt not to debate because your position is week.

I’m god damn dyslexic who cant spell worth a shit. And the schooled bastard fear me. Will not engage in a battle of wits.

Cowards.

#97 Stan Is Right on 04.27.18 at 1:49 am

#74 Into the Sunset
THANK YOU
People are uneducated in all of this. How do we fix this?
We can’t, as most people are uneducated in World facts. They hear shite on CBC, CTV, etc and spew it out to the World. If people with even a little intelligence took the time to research they would know that it’s BS.

#98 Smoking Man on 04.27.18 at 2:08 am

Phobe has become a powerfull end of word thing.
Example. Lets turn this around

You’re a deranged straightwhitemaleaphope.

Paints a gross picture of the beast using it.

Just saying.

Love bitchs not hate

Dr Smoking Man
Phd Herdonomics

#99 For those about to flop... on 04.27.18 at 2:12 am

Pink Pollen falling in Richmond.

These guys finally got the smelling salts out of the medicine cabinet and have broken through the fog of what they thought they were going to get for their house in Richmond.

They picked this place up for 1.76 in July 2017 and with the massive 24% reduction from the dreamer price they wanted ,they are now in Pink Draw territory if they get ask.

Not the worst result,right?

That is until you read the listing, and if you take them at their word ,they did a 300k renovation on an 80s build and tried to flip it after the bloom was already off the detached rose.

Boomshakalaka…

M43BC

9428 Laka Drive, Richmond

Mar 5:$2,480,000
Apr 25: $1,888,888
Change: – 591112.00 -24%

https://www.zolo.ca/richmond-real-estate/9428-laka-drive

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDA1WE5RUg==

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Feel free to make a donation.

Flop For Fox Fund…

http://www.terryfox.org/get-involved/ways-to-give/

#100 Nonplused on 04.27.18 at 2:46 am

#80 CalgaryCarGuy

From an energy perspective, EV’s do not save energy, they just move the smokestack to the coal plant at great expense. It isn’t cheap to get all that lithium out of the ground and into battery form, and when I say it isn’t cheap I mean it takes energy, mostly from carbon. It also isn’t cheap to recharge those batteries and most of that comes from carbon. Electricity doesn’t just “come out of the wall” any more than gasoline “comes from the gas station”. We are actually approaching a point where over the life of a vehicle a gasoline powered car has a lower carbon footprint than an EV.

This can be clearly seen in costs. The underlying cost behind almost everything you eat, ride in or on, live in, or watch is the electricity or direct consumption associated with it, and it’s 80% carbon and much of the rest is nuclear which is a disaster that is no longer waiting to happen, it’s underway.

So the reason the Sentra is cheaper than the Leaf is that is has a much lower carbon footprint. Judging by the purchase price about half. It’s all in the outrageous cost of the batteries which must be paid for in carbon. EV’s are a scam, which is why nobody is buying Teslas except the really fast ones and nobody buys a Leaf.

Owning a Leaf is like driving a Tesla Roadster to your Lear jet. Simple moral signalling. Shameful. Al Gore and his solar panels while owning a yacht and a plane. It’s so silly it’s hard to believe when the rest of us are just trying to heat up a can of soup.

Electric motorcycles can kind of work for short ranges but that’s because a Harley already gets 45 mpg for being so much lighter than a car. Electric cars are just a joke. Electric trucks are simply propaganda. You ain’t getting your camper to the mountains using batteries, it just won’t work. If you understand science and thermodynamics, you understand it is ridiculous.

#101 renter in Surrey on 04.27.18 at 2:46 am

#81 Millmech
I bet rates are hitting 7% by year end!
————————————————————

Yeah sure, 77%.

#102 Howard on 04.27.18 at 5:11 am

#10 Kilt on 04.26.18 at 5:41 pm

I disagree with you on oil. It is in the early stages of a bull market. Reserves continue to decline. Tesla has proven to be a disaster. Electric cars still very far off from public acceptance. Population explosion in the 3rd world = increasing demand for fuel. Saudis have had enough and want $100 oil again. Trump indifferent.

Canadian oilies are dirt cheap thanks for Dressup’s pipeline bungling. In the end I do believe Trans Mountain will go forward. I’ve been buying mid-sized heavily discounted oil patch companies with clean balance sheets.

#103 Howard on 04.27.18 at 5:19 am

#48 For those about to flop… on 04.26.18 at 7:47 pm

O.k so I just learned my Canadian lesson for the day.

Woodbridge is a suburb of the city of Vaughan and depending on who listed the house some realtors used the suburb and some realtors used the city.

——————————————–

Yeah the York Region place names are rather fluid between the actual cities and the neighbourhoods within them.

Vaughan, Markham, Richmond Hill, Aurora, Newmarket, and Stouffville are all municipalities.

Woodbridge and Maple are areas within western Vaughan with no official status.

Thornhill is an area spanning southeastern Vaughan and southwestern Markham. No official status.

Unionville is an area within eastern Markham. No official status.

#104 Howard on 04.27.18 at 5:23 am

#78 Brandon on 04.26.18 at 10:22 pm

Stan Brooks needs to comment on here more often. One of the few people who actually gets it. Long vol; long commodities; short CDN$; short BC RE

——————————————–

Long commodities but short CAD?
How do you square that circle?

#105 NoName on 04.27.18 at 5:34 am

@flop

Don’t do that, take card to salivation army.

#106 NoName on 04.27.18 at 6:08 am

Hey Jonny

You are so good at finding spelling mistakes try out Ontario budget se how many misspelled numbers you can find in it. Or just for fun try to correct spelling in this video. Warning heavy accent.

https://youtu.be/FN_8TVvFmFs

#107 ANON on 04.27.18 at 6:25 am

I may not know what “bank deposit” or “ton of money” means, but coin, that I remember. However I don’t think I’ve ever seen the “amount of coin” Garth mentions. Coins is rather shy lately, everyone creates their own “coin” instantly using plastic or phones. Or graphic cards and ASICs. No different, just pile more promises on top of those. But let’s just blame someone else: banks, politicians, commies, capies, the dipers, the bunnies, pick one, anyone! The more, the merrier. :)

#108 desperately seeking serenity on 04.27.18 at 7:02 am

Some info from Toronto Life on foreign buyers in Toronto…

Stat of the Week
The percentage of Toronto home sales that involved a foreign buyer (as defined by Queen’s Park) during a three month period ending in February, according to new numbers from the province, as analyzed by the Globe. In May 2017, just after the introduction of Ontario’s tax on non-resident real estate speculators, 7.2 per cent of Toronto sales involved foreign buyers.

#109 Howard on 04.27.18 at 7:03 am

#61 Game Over on 04.26.18 at 9:10 pm

Everyone keeps saying “the recovery”, but can you still say it after 10 years? Are we just 89 years in to the recovery of the Great Depression?

Poloz does a lot of things that aren’t in the mandate of the central bank. There was absolotely no reason for him to cut the rates in 2015 by 50% but he did and single handedly put the icing on the cake for insane house prices. Now he is in between a rock and hard place because we wants to maintain price stability now but he can’t because people are so far in debt. Its either house prices cave in the economy or inflation caves it in by not hiking.

——————————————

Haven’t you heard? Poloz is now delving into social policy.

According to him, taxpayers must fund everyone’s decision to procreate : http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/poloz-child-care-quebec-1.4574195

#110 Conn Smythe on 04.27.18 at 7:24 am

#52 Toronto Basher

So how do you really feel about the Leafs? Regardless of their lack of winning Lord Stanley’s prize for 51 years, they are the second most valuable franchise out of 31 NHL teams. Who is crying all the way to the bank?

As to your comments about the housing in our fair city, the third largest metropolis in North America behind New York and LA. No slums like in its closest American city by size Chicago. Yes, it has become expensive to the unfortunate who have to buy now. There will be no housing collapse. There is high demand for housing and low supply of housing available. Leafs aside, take your Toronto bashing elsewhere cowboy, you sound like a raving fool.

#111 Howard on 04.27.18 at 7:30 am

#43 Former TD employee on 04.26.18 at 7:39 pm

Inflation has increased by over 50% on items like goat cheese that sold for $6.00 last year, but now it’s at over $8.99.

The Bank of Canada also aims for a 60-cent Loonie to boost exports of wheat, canola, crude oil and feminism.

————————————————

The burger at a pub in dt Toronto where I used to go for trivia night increased from $8.99 in 2011 to $11.99 when I was last there a year ago (possibly even higher now).

I now live in France and cheese is one of the only things that is cheap here.

#112 Mishuko on 04.27.18 at 7:38 am

If you drop the dog theme that would be a black swan in my books!

#113 Tater on 04.27.18 at 7:47 am

#15 rental property math on 04.26.18 at 6:14 pm
Garth when are my weed stocks going to go up? I was a financial genius in January when they peaked but now not so much. TD rates all my picks as “Buy” or “Strong Buy”, same with yahoo finance. The last senate vote is June 7 so it still needs to be voted as legal. Will big financial institutions buy in after that? All of the companies I chose had large bought deal offerings at share prices higher than my costs. Shouldn’t be any more dilution. Does that mean I’m good? They would have done more due diligence than me. I only know rental property math.
————————————————————–

That’s so cute. You think IB analyst ratings mean something. And you cross check with Yahoo.

Maybe stick to real estate.

#114 Buy? Curious? on 04.27.18 at 8:08 am

Hey Garth!

How many Baby Boomers does it take to change a lightbulb? None. They’ve worked hard all their lives, nothing has been given to them. The millennial a should do it and stop whining! Gimme, gimme, GIIIIMMMMEEE! And stop tearing holes in your jeans.

Sounds reasonable. – Garth

#115 dharma bum on 04.27.18 at 8:21 am

The interest rate on HELOCS will be 8% by early 2020.

You heard it here first.

#116 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.27.18 at 8:27 am

@#76 Temple
Were you always this paranoid or are you overcompensating for delusional feelings of persecution?

#117 Hamsterwheelie on 04.27.18 at 8:37 am

Gah. Folks complain about a point here or there, we are at 11% interest only payments on a private loan. Why? Because no one will finance us during our build. What are we building? Glad you asked, 3 rentals plus our own little casa all under one historic roof, great location, pristine fully refurbished, new appliances etc etc.
We will have great rents each month coming in but banks count only half. We are self employed with perfect credit but essentially show no income so no mortgage for you! Once the place is fully finished and we are flat broke, if we can spin 2017 taxes to look good we may, possibly, perhaps, just barely qualify for the meager $200 000 we’re looking for, if not, broker and legal fees to the tune of $10 000 plus interest 7% on top. Grrrr.

#118 Tater on 04.27.18 at 8:46 am

#85 SunnyDays on 04.26.18 at 11:40 pm
#3 Stan Brooks on 04.26.18 at 5:11 pm

“Inflation has been steady at least 6-8 % yearly…”

In Toronto 6-8% inflation rate is about right. For example, Ontario Gov’t increased service fees by 8% from the prior year:
http://www.fao-on.org/en/Blog/Publications/service-fees

Today’s blog entry says: “money streams out of equities and into safer havens”

This is where it gets interesting, because the 60/40 balanced portfolio assumes safe haven = bonds. We have a clear and present danger that stocks and bonds may sell off meaningfully at the same time.

Post-2008 Financial Crisis, the US Federal Reserve deformed the “risk free rate of return” of the 10-year treasury with ZIRP and QE creating a buyer of bonds at any price for almost a decade.

The 10 year treasury is the foundation of the entire financial system, and its yield was artificially suppressed. As a result, risk assets were mispriced and bubbles were blown. Now that the “risk free” rate is increasing, we will see re-pricing of risk assets with unintended consequences.

Bonds are vulnerable to capital losses in a rising interest rate environment. Especially when their rates have been kept artificially low at floor-level for such a long time.
—————————————————————–
The negative correlation between bonds and stocks has been an aberration over the last 20 to 25 years. When that relationship reverts to it’s historical norms, it will be ugly.

#119 50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE! on 04.27.18 at 8:48 am

#110 Conn Smythe

So how do you really feel about the Leafs? Regardless of their lack of winning Lord Stanley’s prize for 51 years, they are the second most valuable franchise out of 31 NHL teams. Who is crying all the way to the bank?

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Seriously!? Really!?

Well it always was about the money for you, not respect for the people. Even when the Loser Leafs won a few cups, they mostly played like crap in the regular season, ripping off their paying customers. This is why Conn was against 1967 expansion, he feared competent competition. He was right.

And that is barely the tip of the iceberg for Conn Smythe. You are incredibly ignorant of your own reality, just like everyone today who claims to “love” Toronto, to ignore this.

Conn Smythe:

A racist who said of a great Black hockey player that he would have to be “turned white” in order to join the Leafs.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/racial-discrimination-ruined-his-hockey-career-but-it-didnt-ruin-his-life/article2371115/

A silver spoon capitalist who was against his players getting a decent wage and starting a union, who famously demoted players who got married without his permission. (Was this an Alabama plantation? Sounds like it!)

A man who hated the modern Canadian flag, and a proud supporter of Diefenbumpkus.

A man whose son faced criminal charges before he died, related to shady family business dealings.

A man who laid the groundwork for convicted criminal Harold Ballard to take over, leading into an era of disgusting criminal acts including the multiple rapes of young boys by Maple Leaf Gardens staff that went on for years.

A bigot who resigned from the Leaf’s board in protest because a black man, Muhammad Ali, was scheduled to have a match at Maple Leaf Gardens. (Conn said he was “traded for $35,000 and a black Muslim minister.”)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conn_Smythe

Your hockey team, like your city, is a pile of hypocritical crap.

The fans? The quality of play? The innocent children? The Black people striving for respect? These mean nothing. It’s only the money for the Loser Leafs, and they know the more they lose, the more idiots they can suck into their scheme.

Thanks for helping me make my point ;)

51 YEARS AND COUNTING!

#120 rental property math on 04.27.18 at 9:10 am

70 Headhunter on 04.26.18 at 9:44 pm
OK “weed stocks?” I’m no expert but take the profit. State of Oregon grows 3 times the weed they can consume. Think about that.

Will be the same here in Canada. Everyone and their aunt will be growing the shit.

———-
I looked into it a bit. Looks like Oregon has 950 licensed producers for 4 million people. Vs Canada 102 LPs (which about 50 have license to sell)

So Oregon has 1/10 the population and 10x the amount of producers. If you go off Canadian LPs that have a sales license it goes to 20x.

If we take into account the international markets, Canadian LPs are supplying a population of at least 200-300 million people. (Germany + Italy alone are 140)

So 50 LPs supplying 300 million vs 950 LPs supplying 4 million.

The over supply makes sense, especially since they can’t legally cross state lines with the product.

Also anyone who wants to grow weed is already doing it. I bet they are probably making their own wine, brewing their own beer and have their copper distiller out in full force. Weed isn’t just weed. There’s a lot of different varieties. Not everyone buys the $8 wine and the 24s of lakeport.

Just my 2 cents

#121 rental property math on 04.27.18 at 9:14 am

#113 Tater on 04.27.18 at 7:47 am

—–
Anyone who sold at January’s peek would have made hundreds of percent on a 1 year hold. Sure investing in rentals in Hamilton has also been a good way to double my money but a little diversification is key right. Some of us want to be fully retired by 40.

#122 Fish on 04.27.18 at 9:36 am

That’s what,happens when you have complete idiots thinking they know what they are doing, they mix up a couple of stories and RUIN peoples lives COMPLETE IDIOTS

#123 Gravy Train on 04.27.18 at 9:48 am

#100 Nonplused on 04.27.18 at 2:46 am
“Electricity doesn’t just ‘come out of the wall’ any more than gasoline ‘comes from the gas station.’ We are … approaching a point where over the life of a vehicle a gasoline-powered car has a lower carbon footprint than an EV.” I’m looking into the economics of enhanced net metering (such as using a wind turbine and/or a set of solar panels). Ever heard of such audacity? :)

#124 Smoking Man on 04.27.18 at 9:57 am

DELETED

#125 SunShowers on 04.27.18 at 10:04 am

#29 Where’s The Money Guido? on 04.26.18 at 7:01 pm

“Why would you Delete my post, I wasn’t libeling anyone”

——————

Your name is literally an ethnic slur.

#126 maxx on 04.27.18 at 10:07 am

#18 IMHO on 04.26.18 at 6:30 pm

“Low inflation is 2%?

So in a short 25 yrs, your cash will lose 50% of its value.

Got it ;)”

That’s why it’s so important to save like crazy and push both savings and growth into the future when you’re young. It’s far less painful than getting to mid-life or later with an impotent amount of liquid, declining job quality, disappearing benefits, increased competition for everything on all fronts and having to provide for a more fragile existence.

Quality of life later on can be attained by teaching our young about the high importance of cash in later life whilst still enjoying all that this great world has to offer….you simply need to fund that out of income rather than debt.

Debt, for most = inescapable misery.

#127 Shlong Branch Advicates on 04.27.18 at 10:08 am

#57 Smoking Man on 04.26.18 at 8:28 pm

16 fourty theird at at in shlong branch.
Listed for 296 days down to 699k no takers.
According to zolo 58% decline on 2 bedroom bungees.
Last year 1.3m This year 563k

It’s getting ugly out there..
______________________________________

Never has a two bedroom bungalow in the area been listed for 1.3M in your dreams Smoky.
Actually the entire community has been cleaned up since you moved out of the area! Now go look in the mirror!

#128 Penny Henny on 04.27.18 at 10:10 am

#31 Nonplused on 04.26.18 at 7:05 pm
“And it wants people to stop snorfling debt like crazed truffle pigs.”

Well,they can’t, because taxes are too dang high, and more are coming. If you live in a province where the HST is say 11% and now carbon taxes are coming which is in essence just another HST of qt least 11% (because it compounds, it’s not charged just at the consumer purchase point but at every step alone the manufacture, so it is probably much higher but let’s use 11% for now), you effectively have to pay 22% tax on everything you buy even if you have no income! Even a new house! It takes a lot of energy to turn all those trees into OSB and ship it out to the suburbs.

If you live in a high rise you are paying carbon taxes just to ride the elevator to your floor. Poor Garth has to pay carbon taxes just to keep the ice cream frozen.
They truly are a tax on everything.

So how is a salaried person to get ahead in this environment? If our salaried person lives in Ontario and makes a modest amount of say $70,000 a year, his tax rate is already 25%. $17,000 a year is already out the door for federal, provincial and CPP/EI. Put an 11% HST and then a carbon tax on top of all of this and he or she is truly screwed, glued and tattooed before they even think about buying a house. So the only way out for someone who wants to maintain the semblance of the “Canadian lifestyle” is to embrace continuously escalating levels of personal debt, which is what we clearly see in the numbers.

Well, there is one other way out for our salaried person, and that is for them to adjust their lifestyle to match their income. But if everyone did that it would be a complete disaster for the Canadian economy, at least in the short term. New house construction would cease, car sales would plummet, even the Apple store would be empty. Heck you might even see a resurgence in land lines at the expense of cell phone sales. And of course that sort of scenario would lead to all kinds of job losses and a deep recession, which would only make matters worse and spiral downward. We definitely don’t want that to happen, so the borrowing much continue. It cannot at this point be stopped, because taxes are too darn high and they are increasingly targeted at consumption rather than income.

As anyone who has read one of my comments before knows I really hate the carbon tax, it is one of the most underhanded taxes on the poor ever devised. We have been on an efficiency drive in this country since the 70’s. It just isn’t yet possible to build mass housing much more efficiently than we already do. It’s damn near impossible to find an incandescent light bulb anymore and the government is lately practically giving away LED lights. Car engines are approaching the thermodynamic limits for efficiency so the only way to go there is smaller and lighter until we are all riding scooters in the snow. Or maybe bicycles.

When Nutley imposed the carbon tax on everything here in Alberta, she both disingenuously under described how much money it was going to cost people, she also didn’t give everyone a $2000/year after tax raise to cover it. So for most people it either comes out of the HELOC or Johnie stops playing hockey and Sally stops piano lessons. There never really was anywhere else for it to come from for most people. A few free LED light bulbs were never going to help, lighting is not a major source of power consumption within a house. These are, in rough order, the furnace, the air conditioner, the clothes dryer, the hot water tank, the stove, the washing machine. Lights make very little difference, unless you’ve got yourself an air conditioned office. And all of those major loads are already approaching thermodynamic limits for efficiency as well. Stoves will never be efficient just because of how they work but the microwave oven sure is. I guess Nutley wants us all to go buy a clothes line and put our nickers out in the yard like some third world country. That is going to make laundry day a lot more cumbersome. Also condo dwellers probably can’t, unless the built up areas start to resemble 1920’s New York. Clothes lines running over the street between buildings. Yes, that is exactly where this is going. You can’t make an electric heating element any more efficient than it already is. It’s pretty near 100% already. Maybe you can vent the dryer into your greenhouse but that only works when the dryer is running so now you have a greenhouse to heat too, and that is not very efficient.

So it doesn’t matter what they do with rates, personal debt will continue up until it breaks. Higher interest rates will only speed the coming of the reckoning.

///////////////////////////

I had no idea what the definition of ‘Nonplused’ was so I had to look it up.
One thing I was pretty sure of though was that it did NOT mean ‘direct and to the point’

#129 Blacksheep on 04.27.18 at 10:13 am

100 comments and nobody?

Nice word play G man.

#130 LP on 04.27.18 at 10:30 am

#119, 50 Years …

Just out of idle curiosity, what is the basis for your hatred of and vitriol for all things Toronto?

It can’t be good for your health to carry such anger and ill-will for a place and it’s citizens, most of whom you cannot possibly know and, since you disrespect it so much, you likely don’t visit.

For the sake of your own psyche, take a step back and seek out something peaceful; those closest to you will breathe a sigh of relief.

F70+ON

#131 Conn Smythe on 04.27.18 at 10:31 am

#119 Toronto Hater

It is you that crack me up. Ranting like some deranged lunatic about Toronto and the faults of Mr. Smythe. Nice of you to pick on ol Conn and not on the likes of Jack Norris of the Red Wings who paid Gordie Howe peanuts until Ted Lindsey took a stand for the players. Ol Conn was a man of his times and had his faults but did the other owners of NHL clubs. Smythe raised millions for the Ontario Society for Crippled Children and was a straight arrow in business. His son Stafford engaged in illegal activity along with his buddy Harold Ballard but Conn in no way, shape or form supported Ballard and in fact never wanted Ballard involved in the Leafs organization. That was all Stafford’s doing. It was Ballard who didn’t care about the fans and only the loot, not Smythe. Get your facts straight cowboy.

Toronto is the most multicultural city on the planet cowboy. A desired destination for millions throughout its history. The third largest metropolis in North America with a fraction of the crime of a comparable city like Chicago. There will be no housing collapse in this great city.

#132 millmech on 04.27.18 at 10:41 am

#101
There is a very good chance mortgage rates will be at 7% by the end of the year, if the BOC signals it is going to raise rates the banks seem to add a .15% just before so all that we need is two more rate increases and one more bump up like yesterday and we basically there.
Might even have another .45% bump up in the very near future as close to 50% of mortgages are coming up for renewal this year. Banks need those profits and when RBC, Scotia see that TD is making more by raising their rates again they will follow.
The banks have captive(literally) consumers as they know all your financial information and those that they can profit from they will.
You must remember the good old days of 18% mortgage rates, I do and when your mortgage was affordable at 9%-10% and it had to be renewed at double the rate people got hammered. I know people back then who said rates would never go that high, could never happen and were wiped out.
By the way banks were just as caring then as they are now.

#133 Blacksheep on 04.27.18 at 10:51 am

Stan,

The more I actually read your comments, the more I
fundamentally agree with much (not all) of what your saying.

The trouble is, knowing things should, or shouldn’t be a certain way, does not make it so. I learned the hard way, railing against the system simply clouded my judgment. I now instead attempt to observe with emotional detachment, what has or is, actually happened or happening.

Much like the saying “Never bet against the FED”

The system has the surprising ability to pull, elephant sized rabbits out of its butt, when required.

You expect a given outcome to occur because rational thought deems it unavoidable, then BAM, the system’s resiliency proves you wrong, as it protects its own self interests and saves the day….until it one day can’t.

And that’s the short, that’s impossible to predict.

#134 Baph on 04.27.18 at 10:53 am

“reopen as an online, sub-prime lender. With a cat theme.”
You should call it Garthfield Financial ;)

#135 Sonny on 04.27.18 at 10:59 am

FROM RATESPY.COM

RBC says its rates are changing as follows on April 30:

* 1yr-4yr Fixed: up 15 bps
* 5yr-10yr Fixed: up 20 bps
* Variable closed mortgage: down by 15 bps.

Still awaiting confirmation on specifically which posted and special offer rates are changing.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/989880646603628544

#136 Brett in Calgary on 04.27.18 at 11:12 am

#100 Nonplused

“Science and thermodynamics”, now you’re just talking crazy! Unfortunately, if Canadians can’t understand money/finances there is very little hope of them understanding energy flow. After all electricity is “clean” because it doesn’t smell when it comes out of my wall socket ;-).

#137 Reynolds531 on 04.27.18 at 11:55 am

One of my favorite hobbies is arguing with strangers on the internet. I would say based on the number of people willing to pick a fight with me saying carbon tax is good policy…. it’s here to stay.

#138 Fish on 04.27.18 at 12:09 pm

Re #84 Mark on 04.26.18 at 11:19 pm
No recession? Really? Has Canada *ever* transitioned from one sector that was responsible for an overwhelming amount of economic activity, to another, without a recession during the interlude?

Is there really anything waiting in the wings that will re-employ the workers associated with the 25%+ of GDP that is associated with the RE sector?

Rate cuts, and deflation right around the corner. Doubt there’s anything stopping it. Buy those CAD$, they’ll be of increasing value going forward as they’re the only thing that CAD$ denominated debt can be paid with.

***

Like being caught between a ROCK and a VERY HARD PLACE

#139 Rexx Rock on 04.27.18 at 12:12 pm

Poloz the clown and conman Carney have done a great job.All the bs they spewed over the last 10 years telling Canadians about interest rates going up and inflation at 2%.Canadians can’t be that stupid to believe these idiots.
Whats going to happen is another qe and lower interest rates.Its a given,do you really think its better to raise rates when debt is in the trillions.No,how about Japan and the EU?There not worried or concerned about zirp.Life goes on as usual.

#140 X on 04.27.18 at 12:23 pm

Toronto-Dominion Bank has lifted its posted rate for five-year fixed mortgages by 45 basis points to 5.59 percent as government bond yields touched their highest levels since 2011 this week. Bloomberg

Looks like they are counting on rising rates as well from the US Fed and BoC.

#141 Gravy Train on 04.27.18 at 12:30 pm

#124 Smoking Man on 04.27.18 at 9:57 am
DELETED

What happened? Did you slip on a banana peel? Drinkin’ too much Jack?

Hey, Smokey. That was quite the meltdown that Trumpty Dumpty had on Fox & Friends the other day! Did you catch it? Brian Kilmeade yanked Trump off the air after a 30-min. rant by saying, “We could talk to you all day, but it looks like you have a million things to do. I hope you can join us again, Mr. President.” What a gong show! (Trump, I mean.) :)

#142 Moronto? on 04.27.18 at 12:54 pm

131 Conn Smythe on 04.27.18 at 10:31 am

There will be no housing collapse in this great city.

————————————————

Great city? More like a frozen ghetto with zero infrastructure, zero vision and zero lifestyle.

You need to travel more.

#143 Oft deleted much maligned stock picker on 04.27.18 at 12:55 pm

Hah…..the old Liberal shell game….long rates up….’cause nobodys locked in….and variable rates down…..the carnage continues into the next election cycle. Great going Trudeau/Poloz/Axelrod and Butts….you’ll leave Canada as little more than a shell.

#144 Big Kahuna on 04.27.18 at 1:01 pm

Trump brokers a peace deal between North and South Korea after 60 years of failure by the US-almost zero mention in the corrupt MSM-I will expect this post to be deleted as it contradicts the narrative pushed by this blog (i.e. Gravy Train).

I didn’t see Trump at the DMZ. Kim has assumed the role of hero. Who knew?- Garth

#145 Looney Baloney on 04.27.18 at 1:02 pm

#31 Nonplused on 04.26.18 at 7:05 pm

Great post! Canada has been sold out to the highest bidder. Communism incoming in 3… 2… 1…

Why I moved south of the border. Gonna be good here for another 7 years until emperor Trump is through.

FYI @all I’ll be voting for T2 for a second term and Kanye West in 2024.

#146 Vancouver Loser on 04.27.18 at 1:04 pm

#71 #76 Ghosts of Temple Past

Have to admit, I have noticed the same thing . . . alot of the vocal opposition to Garth lately has been uncharacteristically silent. I sure hope someone isn’t actively filtering out opposing comments, simply because they don’t support the “current” Garth narrative; I say “current” because the Garth mantra hammered home over the past few years seems to have changed lately (“real estate cannot continue like this, and it WILL have to revert to the historical mean . . .” has suddenly become, “well, I guess maybe a 30% reduction is as good as it is going to get.”).

As someone who lives in BC, I see just how messed up the real estate market actually is. Foreign buyers? Yes, it is actually a factor. Illicit funds being laundered through real estate? Yes, it actually is a factor. Is FOMO and unfair competition with buyers (who are utilizing the above foreign and/or illicit $) causing prices to inflate wildly? Absolutely.

It truly has nothing to do with racism or prejudice . . . it is something that is being observed firsthand all over the lower mainland. It is something that is hard to see in stats and numbers, because the data collection processes used to generate the stats are flawed and inaccurate and fail to ask the correct questions. If all your arguments are based upon numbers/stats, you are very likely missing a relevant piece of the puzzle (especially if you cannot guarantee their data collection methods are legit). Anyone who has taken a university level stats course knows that you can use different types of analysis to make the same numbers APPEAR to show completely different things (ie/ realtors using the exact same sales data to create their “franken-number” stats that support the notion that sales/prices are juuuuuust fine). Numbers are just too easy to “spin” when taken by themselves, alone.

We each need to observe what is going on around us (preferably firsthand), and talk to other people who are also making observations. We need to have open discussions to collate ALL of the data, stats, AND observations before we can assume we have a reasonably accurate picture of what is happening around us. I hope this blog continues to include observations that might contradict the GreaterFool status quo . . . many of us live in BC and are seeing things happening around us that ARE absolutely relevant to the big picture.

You see what you wish to see, blaming others for a market in which 90% of buyers are locals. – Garth

#147 IHCTD9 on 04.27.18 at 1:08 pm

#133 Blacksheep on 04.27.18 at 10:51 am
Stan,

The more I actually read your comments, the more I
fundamentally agree with much (not all) of what your saying.

The trouble is, knowing things should, or shouldn’t be a certain way, does not make it so. I learned the hard way, railing against the system simply clouded my judgment. I now instead attempt to observe with emotional detachment, what has or is, actually happened or happening.

Much like the saying “Never bet against the FED”

The system has the surprising ability to pull, elephant sized rabbits out of its butt, when required.

You expect a given outcome to occur because rational thought deems it unavoidable, then BAM, the system’s resiliency proves you wrong, as it protects its own self interests and saves the day….until it one day can’t.

And that’s the short, that’s impossible to predict.
__________________________________

I agree with most of Stan’s comments as well, and I also agree with your comment above. We can only speculate on the future. A guy can get riled right up taking pot shots at future events using ammo from today. I make a conscious effort to keep from becoming angered. I already know how anger can lead to longer term effects on my quality of life, and can effect others around me. Divorcing your emotions from what you see going on around you is a great way to go.

This wisdom goes back a long way:

“There is only one way to happiness, and that is to cease worrying about things which are beyond the power of our will. “
-Epictetus

“Therefore do not worry about tomorrow, for tomorrow will worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own.”
-Jesus Christ

Getting yourself twisted up too much over politics can make a guy difficult to be around. I like the idea of finding resolve and enjoyment in making a plan, and executing instead.

Hope for the best, plan for the worst. Expect to be wrong half the time and govern yourself accordingly. If a guy can cast off fear and worry, he’ll be so much more able to get done the job at hand.

“Most things I worry about, never happen anyway”
– Tom Petty

#148 Schlong Branch Advicates on 04.27.18 at 1:18 pm

#141 Gravy Train on 04.27.18 at 12:30 pm

#124 Smoking Man on 04.27.18 at 9:57 am
DELETED

What happened? Did you slip on a banana peel? Drinkin’ too much Jack?

Hey, Smokey. That was quite the meltdown that Trumpty Dumpty had on Fox & Friends the other day! Did you catch it? Brian Kilmeade yanked Trump off the air after a 30-min. rant by saying, “We could talk to you all day, but it looks like you have a million things to do. I hope you can join us again, Mr. President.” What a gong show! (Trump, I mean.) :)
__________________________________________
Caught Trumpty Dumpty on Fox & Friends the other morning as I was sick at home. Could not believe my ears when I hear that a$$hole start talking. This guy doesn’t think his own $hit stinks. He is better than any TV show ever, its like watching a troupe of monkeys at the Zoo.

#149 Sean on 04.27.18 at 1:19 pm

Anyone in Ontario knows inflation has been through the roof since minimum wage went up. It’s obvious if you buy anything, anywhere in Toronto.

Mix that with general inflation going up.

I’m not sure what most people can afford anymore.

#150 What can I say about that? on 04.27.18 at 1:44 pm

Poloz says blah, blah. What BS. He has no credibility.

#151 What can I say about that? on 04.27.18 at 1:49 pm

Poloz says inflation is at 2.3%. More BS. Well, I guess it is true if you can manipulate the basket of goods that the CPI is based on. Pick whatever you want to place in that basket so that your inflation rate comes in at what you want it to be.

#152 What can I say about that? on 04.27.18 at 1:52 pm

Poloz doesn’t care, as don’t all CBs, about the avearge citizen. He cares about the banksters. And other members of the FIRE menagerie.

#153 Proof ? on 04.27.18 at 1:56 pm

to comment # 131 Conn Smythe

“There will be no housing collapse in this great city.”

Why not ? – “Because I said so.”

“…great city” – How many great cities have you ever visited? I am guessing very few. Or, you could just be legally blind I suppose.

#154 Vancouver Loser on 04.27.18 at 2:04 pm

You see what you wish to see, blaming others for a market in which 90% of buyers are locals. – Garth

uh-huh . . . so, does that make you the Teapot or the Kettle? I think we BOTH see what we see. Only difference is that I am seeing the situation in BC from ground zero.

The worst place for perspective. – Garth

#155 Long-Time Lurker on 04.27.18 at 2:07 pm

The Korean War over.

Rocket Man and Dotard: A Love Story.

#156 YVRvan on 04.27.18 at 2:16 pm

You see what you wish to see, blaming others for a market in which 90% of buyers are locals. – Garth

1 in 10 properties sold to non locals, money launders, gangs and people parking cash, can and has distorted this ridiculous market. You just proved your own point.

Well, now Comrdae Premier Horgan will make it all yummy for you. – Garth

#157 Kurt on 04.27.18 at 2:26 pm

“With a cat theme.” Right. And hell will freeze over too.

#158 45north on 04.27.18 at 2:46 pm

flop: You’re going to have to come up with a new schtick now that you’ve been busted…
M43BC
https://www.yelp.com/topic/san-jose-where-did-you-go-on-your-last-vacation

pretty funny

#159 Stan Brooks on 04.27.18 at 3:27 pm

TSX down due to technology glitch,
I guess cheap Temporary foreign workers labour does not mean quality labour, on the countrary.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-04-27/tmx-market-incident-all-toronto-stock-exchange-tmx-systems-are-down

Trouble is brewing:

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-04-27/canada-serious-trouble-again-and-time-its-real

Zerohedge has been spectacularly and consistently ignorant of Canada. – Garth

#160 Lorne on 04.27.18 at 3:30 pm

#146 Vancouver Loser
#71 #76 Ghosts of Temple Past

Have to admit, I have noticed the same thing . . . alot of the vocal opposition to Garth lately has been uncharacteristically silent. I sure hope someone isn’t actively filtering out opposing comments, simply because they don’t support the “current” Garth narrative; I say “current” because the Garth mantra hammered home over the past few years seems to have changed lately (“real estate cannot continue like this, and it WILL have to revert to the historical mean . . .” has suddenly become, “well, I guess maybe a 30% reduction is as good as it is going to get.”).

As someone who lives in BC, I see just how messed up the real estate market actually is. Foreign buyers? Yes, it is actually a factor. Illicit funds being laundered through real estate? Yes, it actually is a factor. Is FOMO and unfair competition with buyers (who are utilizing the above foreign and/or illicit $) causing prices to inflate wildly? Absolutely.

It truly has nothing to do with racism or prejudice . . . it is something that is being observed firsthand all over the lower mainland. It is something that is hard to see in stats and numbers, because the data collection processes used to generate the stats are flawed and inaccurate and fail to ask the correct questions. If all your arguments are based upon numbers/stats, you are very likely missing a relevant piece of the puzzle (especially if you cannot guarantee their data collection methods are legit). Anyone who has taken a university level stats course knows that you can use different types of analysis to make the same numbers APPEAR to show completely different things (ie/ realtors using the exact same sales data to create their “franken-number” stats that support the notion that sales/prices are juuuuuust fine). Numbers are just too easy to “spin” when taken by themselves, alone.

We each need to observe what is going on around us (preferably firsthand), and talk to other people who are also making observations. We need to have open discussions to collate ALL of the data, stats, AND observations before we can assume we have a reasonably accurate picture of what is happening around us. I hope this blog continues to include observations that might contradict the GreaterFool status quo . . . many of us live in BC and are seeing things happening around us that ARE absolutely relevant to the big picture.
……..
You see what you wish to see, blaming others for a market in which 90% of buyers are locals. – Garth
…….
So, you are suggesting the other 10% cannot or are not, influencing the 90% of local buyers??

‘The devil made me do it!’ – Garth

#161 Fake News Again on 04.27.18 at 3:32 pm

crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.26.18 at 6:38 pm
@#178 Headhunter
“why in this day and age would one “work their ass off” thats what slaves had to do…”oh wait a minute”

+++++
I’ve found that most people that “work their asses off” control the slaves……..

Let me guess.
Commission based income?
Job placing people in “the perfect job”?
Network with Human Resources people?
The same people who know how to “game the system ” to abuse stress leave for themselves?
Whats the going rate for job placing these days?
3 months salary? 6 months?

_______

FAKEST comment this year. GOVT believes they “control” us (slaves) and Govt Workers are BAR NONE the laziest most useless un-productive people in the world in any country……

#162 PastThePeak on 04.27.18 at 3:35 pm

#133 Blacksheep on 04.27.18 at 10:51 am
Stan,

The more I actually read your comments, the more I
fundamentally agree with much (not all) of what your saying.

The trouble is, knowing things should, or shouldn’t be a certain way, does not make it so. I learned the hard way, railing against the system simply clouded my judgment. I now instead attempt to observe with emotional detachment, what has or is, actually happened or happening.

Much like the saying “Never bet against the FED”

The system has the surprising ability to pull, elephant sized rabbits out of its butt, when required.

You expect a given outcome to occur because rational thought deems it unavoidable, then BAM, the system’s resiliency proves you wrong, as it protects its own self interests and saves the day….until it one day can’t.

And that’s the short, that’s impossible to predict.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Good points, and I generally agree. Stan’s points that the inflation we perceive is much higher than official CPI have merit, although I don’t agree with the 6-8% annually (sometimes it might be, but not consistently every year).

While I can only shiver in dread at the debt the Canadian population is accumulating, the debts of our governments across the land, and the cluelessness of the people to it. It seems like it is only a short matter of time until it explodes, and Canada goes through an even nastier “2008/09” event like the Americans did.

But then, like you note, it doesn’t take into account what central banks have learned since then. They *CAN* kick the can further down the road. Lots of times it seems. Eventually it will explode, but it might be many decades longer than everyone thought. Perhaps all of the G20 countries will agree to devalue currencies and wipeout some debts at the same time, or something equally ridiculous sounding. Who knows.

Interest rates will move up a bit from here I think (as the US Fed does a few more). But when the next recession hits, Poloz will cut to 0% (or lower) faster than you can track, and QE will be instant. Similar would be in US, Europe, or China. When that happens, housing will soar again, debts will expand ever outward, and moral hazard will take another beating.

But by the time it all plays out, it could be 20-30+ years from now, and people on the sidelines will miss out and just have their savings devalued in future.

Or the bottom could fall it within next 2-3 years…

#163 Ian on 04.27.18 at 3:37 pm

#81 Millmech

It will be interesting for sure my man, but here is why I think the US Fed might be done:

1) Q1 GDP is settling around 2% which is way down from earlier in the year estimates..

https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx?panel=fa9ccf1bede04c3b8a3ac751883e58a91

look at that declining trend. And that was before the majority of the stock market trouble.

2) Powell is a Republican appointee who will be out to help his good buddy Trumpy by keeping rates low.

3) The US bond market action has been really fascinating lately as we move towards inversion, which is signalling coming problems and recession.

4) I think people are misreading why US yields on the 10 year are rising. I think they are rising because the USD is at a 3.5 year low, so foreign holders should sell and certainly are.

The bigger factor is I think the bond market is waking up to the fact that there is $21t in debt and $1.3t in deficits this year, AND the Fed supposedly wants to dump $600b from its $4t of accumulated dog poo, which means an effective deficit of $2t. Traders are finally realising that it makes no sense for yields to be below 3%. I think they should be more like 7 or 8% given the current scenario.

So I disagree that yields are rising because the market believes rate rises are coming. They’re rising because the US is a fiscal trainwreck.

#164 Blacksheep on 04.27.18 at 3:54 pm

IHCTD9 # 147,

Exactly…life’s too damn short.

Thanks for the response.

#165 Stan Brooks on 04.27.18 at 4:19 pm


Zerohedge has been spectacularly and consistently ignorant of Canada. – Garth

I think we, Canadians have been spectacularly and consistently ignorant of Canada.

These 2 articles have merit. Ignore the authors and the motives.

=============================

Blacksheep, PastThePeak , IHCTD9

You will be surprised at how fragile the current world monetary framework really is,

When it comes down to a monetary crisis/and we are close to one/watch out, rates will skyrocket.

The owners of this place want their profit and they do not care about the debt slaves,

#166 Blacksheep on 04.27.18 at 4:22 pm

Past # 152,

“Perhaps all of the G20 countries will agree to devalue currencies and wipeout some debts at the same time, or something equally ridiculous sounding. Who knows.”
—————————————–
I recently watched an economic discussion panel made up of three ‘experts’ (I think someone here supplied the link a few months back) One was a heavy weight hedge fund manager, the second from the Bank of Canada and the third an economist, I believe.

I’m sure someone will correct me.

The take away was the hedge fund chick (real sharp) was very pessimistic about the whole debt situation in the West. The BoC woman sounded just like a FED spokesperson, very cautiously choosing her language.

But the third dude’s perspective was most surprising, straight out stating that a “Debt Jubilee” may be required to save the system and didn’t see too many other options.

The funny part was, this was not an attempt at humour on his part as he was dead serious as he suggested this and no one on the panel was laughing. I thought I remembered Steve Keen talking about this years ago also.

Strange days indeed…

#167 Gravy Train on 04.27.18 at 4:26 pm

#144 Big Kahuna on 04.27.18 at 1:01 pm
“I will expect this post to be deleted as it contradicts the narrative pushed by this blog (i.e., Gravy Train).”

Didn’t mean to ruffle your feathers, big guy! Oh, no, that’s not true; I did mean to. :)

Hey, big guy. Have you been noticing in the news how whistleblowers, the U.S. Congress, and Robert Mueller have been draining the swamp? One swamp monster at a time! We’re all just waiting patiently for them to bag the big kahuna. Oh, wait a minute, that’s your handle! :)

#168 Fake News Again on 04.27.18 at 4:48 pm

Schlong Branch Advicates on 04.27.18 at 1:18 pm
#141 Gravy Train on 04.27.18 at 12:30 pm

#124 Smoking Man on 04.27.18 at 9:57 am
DELETED

What happened? Did you slip on a banana peel? Drinkin’ too much Jack?

Hey, Smokey. That was quite the meltdown that Trumpty Dumpty had on Fox & Friends the other day! Did you catch it? Brian Kilmeade yanked Trump off the air after a 30-min. rant by saying, “We could talk to you all day, but it looks like you have a million things to do. I hope you can join us again, Mr. President.” What a gong show! (Trump, I mean.) :)
__________________________________________
Caught Trumpty Dumpty on Fox & Friends the other morning as I was sick at home. Could not believe my ears when I hear that a$$hole start talking. This guy doesn’t think his own $hit stinks. He is better than any TV show ever, its like watching a troupe of monkeys at the Zoo.

______

Typical responses from the marxist LEFT.

#169 Graeme on 04.27.18 at 5:21 pm

Lock in now???

#170 What can I say about that on 04.27.18 at 5:24 pm

You see what you wish to see, blaming others for a market in which 90% of buyers are locals. – Garth

—————————————————–

Even if that were true (which it probably isn’t), only 10% extra demand (especially if they were willing to pay sky-high prices) could totally skew prices much higher.

P.S. I got a final mark of 100% on U of T introductory stats course in 1975. I’m smart.

#171 NEVER GIVE UP on 04.27.18 at 6:07 pm

I feel for the average American patriot who cringes when their Idiot president speaks or acts.

In Trumps words “Sad”

#172 NEVER GIVE UP on 04.27.18 at 6:11 pm

Don’t feel too bad Americans,… Every nation gets suckered once or twice a Century.

Why Canada was suckered with not one but 2 Trudeau’s ! So don’t feel so bad. Just get rid of him soon.

If you guys elect him again you have no hope left!

#173 Salted on 04.27.18 at 6:29 pm

I’m refinancing both my condos to pull equity out. Saying goodbye to 2.8% and replacing them with 3.25% to position myself for the next property aqusition.

Going commercial, but the one I have my eye on is soooo not sexy. Peeling skim-coat on cinderblock in the worst part of town. The lady-bankers can’t see beyond its lack of curb appeal; I’ve been nixed twice, but guys drool over its light industrial shop potential so I’m sticking with them.

If you look a little deeper there as an ocean view, it’s a mile to downtown and new builds are beginning to replace the rotten one bedroom bungalows.

Court-ordered sale and one solid bid already in place. I’m green in this area, but I’m going to try my hand at a last-minute bid. Wish me luck. Any tips?

#174 Salted on 04.27.18 at 6:44 pm

Oh.. I’m moving banks from RBC to VanCity.

I’ll miss the hot young tellers perched in the cavernous vault and going from Royal Blue to cramped Tomato Red will take some getting used to.

It’s interesting.. I have assests, a union and pension, equity, investments, no debt, and still, RBC’s hands are tied. B20 Red-taped it for them.

From what I understand, credit unions aren’t regulated the same ways banks are.

#175 Gravy Train on 04.27.18 at 7:22 pm

#168 Fake News Again on 04.27.18 at 4:48 pm
“Typical responses from the marxist LEFT.”

But I’m not a Marxist or a leftist! But I suppose in your world facts don’t matter!. :)

#176 Conn Smythe on 04.27.18 at 7:49 pm

#153 Proof
There will be no housing collapse in this great city.”

Why not ? – “Because I said so.”

“…great city” – How many great cities have you ever visited? I am guessing very few. Or, you could just be legally blind I suppose.

Your comments crack me up. Shall I list some of the cities I have visited? Went to school in LA for four years, I have visited Paris, London, Rome, Milan, Amsterdam, Copenhagen, Stockholm, Oslo, Helsinki, London as in England, Berlin, Geneva, shall I continue?

The reason there will not be a housing collapse is simple. The world’s largest greenbelt was put around Toronto in 2005. 7500 sq km worth and it may be expanded. Further, demand is huge for housing. 60,000 immigrants a year plus local demand. Economics 101. Low supply high demand equals what? Even you should be able to figure that one out.

#177 Conn Smythe on 04.27.18 at 7:52 pm

Forgot to mention a city I visit yearly, the Big Apple or rather Manhattan

#178 Smoking Man on 04.28.18 at 1:52 am

Rates went up and I went down.

When you figure out how to wheel 400 to 1 margin.
Your a rock star in your own mind. But you cant really share the evidence.
CRS is watching. Never take big risks were communists lurk.

Off shore those bets.

In vegas again pissing away some profit in the name of fun.

@smokingman on twitter. Live streaming clips from vegas.
Dr told me six years ago I had 6 months to live.
What an idiot.

MJ is really good.

#179 LivinLarge on 04.28.18 at 9:42 am

“After all, if the government will pay you 3%, risk-free, to hold a bond then why risk capital losses to own shares with a dividend not much higher?”…OK, I absolutely appreciate the potential capital value reduction risk avoidance issue but two questions immediately jump to mind.

First, if corporate profits are indeed soaring or about to soar, aren’t the dividends in question going to follow in lock step as these profits soar thus mooting the incentive to move one’s equities into treasuries?

Second, since the tax treatment of dividends is sooooo much different from the tax treatment of treasuries, doesn’t a bond’s interest rate need to be considerably higher than a dividend yield to meaningfully impact the incentive to liquidate equities to buy bonds?

And since I am no “pro from Dover” regarding bonds, is the interest on bonds taxable in the year earned (like a GIC) or only when received?

#180 LivinLarge on 04.28.18 at 9:49 am

“P.S. I got a final mark of 100% on U of T introductory stats course in 1975. I’m smart.”…can you truly think that your grade in a Stats 101 course in 1975 means anything about your intelligence in 2018? Really now. The mark in Stats 304 would be far more illustrative.

#181 LivinLarge on 04.28.18 at 10:03 am

“Trump brokers a peace deal between North and South Korea after 60 years of failure by the US-almost zero mention in the corrupt MSM”… I’m just guessing here but you don’t actually follow the MSM because you’re stuck on this “MSM = corrupt” mantra aren’t you?

Donny didn’t broker anything at all. Kim’s nuclear development facility was effectively destroyed a few days ago by an earthquake induced by underground testing. It’s not like Kim had a bunch of such facilites scattered around the country to fall back on…they had just one and it’s now a mass of underground rubble.

The loss of the facility’s infrastructure coupled with the effects of the sanctions means he has no capacity to start again from scratch so lo and behold, he suddenly cuddles up to the South. See, actually reading and watching the MSM delivers a broader understanding of the real world much better than starting from the bias that the MSM is inherently corrupt.

#182 Steven Rowlandson on 04.28.18 at 11:02 am

Yes! Just what we need ! Microscopic home prices and monster medieval interest rates on savings accounts and GICs. Lovely!

When do we get there?

#183 AGuyInVancouver on 04.28.18 at 1:54 pm

Interesting, condo listings are starting to pile up in the City of Vancouver. Prices have climbed so high, who can afford them especially with B20? Will we start to see prices soften?

#184 Where's The Money Greedo? on 04.28.18 at 3:59 pm

Re: #174 Salted on 04.27.18 at 6:44 pm
Oh.. I’m moving banks from RBC to VanCity.

I’ll miss the hot young tellers perched in the cavernous vault and going from Royal Blue to cramped Tomato Red will take some getting used to.

It’s interesting.. I have assests, a union and pension, equity, investments, no debt, and still, RBC’s hands are tied. B20 Red-taped it for them.

From what I understand, credit unions aren’t regulated the same ways banks are.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Trust me Vancity is no better.
I moved from them to Coast Capital Savings CU during the 2008-2009 recession because of their inaction of not selling my mutual funds when I wanted therby losing 30%. Now I’ve just moved from Coast Capital to TD Bank because of them trying to going under CDIC, thereby diminishing their exposure to $100k per account when TSHTF, instead of $1 million under CUDIC, backstopped by the BC gov’t instead of the Feds.
Last AGM at Coast had Vancity’s CEO there watching the procedures regarding the change to CDIC, so Vancity looks to wanting to do the same thing and limiting exposure. So don’t leave any more than $100k in their accounts either, BC gov’t won’t be able to cover, they’re broke.
Read my entry:
#199 Where’s The Money Guido? on 05.05.17 at 6:31 pm . This will give you goods on Credit Unions going federal in Australia for an example and what it did to ‘members’ shares. You’d be surprised what happens to your shares in the Credit Union when they switch.
I’d be steering clear of these…..
If you have more than 10k to slosh around then you have minor free banking at TD (don’t know all the ins and outs), which the others don’t have. Worth it for me.