Worsts

When the official numbers emerge in a week or so, the extent of social engineering will become obvious. Vancouver is pooched. Socialism doesn’t work. You cannot make things cheaper by taxing them more. Every politician in Canada should be watching, taking notes, and never forgetting. One of our great cities is in trouble, largely of its own making.

March was a mess. April will probably be worse. A silent spring on the left coast.

Consider the recent stats coming out of one of the most expensive and petulant housing markets in North America:

  • Detached house sales in the city are sitting at a 27-year low. Fewer than 140 homes changed hands last month, toppling 44% from a year ago.
  • As sales plunge, listings decline. Sellers are “confused”, the real estate board boss says. “They’re just holding on, taking a wait-and-see approach.”
  • Sales for the entire urban region are scarcely better, falling 37% from last year.
  • There haven’t been this few properties for sale since the end of the credit crisis. That has helped keep prices from collapsing along with sales. But this will change when owners understand the market’s about to get a lot worse.
  • Condo prices have shot high with the sales ratio sitting far about that of detached houses, thanks new mortgage rules. What was affordable no longer is. Meanwhile investment dollars have been driven away by the empty houses tax, the luxury property tax, the anti-Alberta speculation tax and the 20% anti-foreigner tax.
  • In the first 90 days of this year, a mere 350 houses sold in YVR, the lowest ever. Worse that during the darkest days of the financial crisis.

“It’s going to be a very dry year,” realtor Allan Angell told his clients the other day. “Our government continues to steal the equity from our houses.”

Angell has been compiling stats for more than 30 years, back to the mid-Eighties. What he’s just published is at shocking odds with the subdued story being told by the Great Vancouver Real Estate Board. “We saw less demand from buyers and fewer homes listed for sale in our region in the first quarter of the year,” the board admits. “High prices, new tax announcements, rising interest rates, and stricter mortgage requirements are among the factors affecting home buyer and seller activity today.”

But only by putting this in historic context can you see the damage now being wrought by the perfect storm of monetary policy, regulatory overkill and elected morons.

  • West Vancouver. Average sales for a March over 34 years have been 77. The worst-ever March saw 40 sales – until now. Last month just 26 occurred.
  • North Vancouver. Average sales over the last three decades for a March have been 141. The worst March on record had 79 deals. Last month there were only 70.
  • On the Westside the three-decade March average for sales is 182. The worst month ever had 94. This March the number was 58.
  • Greater Vancouver. The March average for the whole region is 1,415, with the worst recorded total being 1,036. But last month just 757 sold – a precipitous drop of 46.5%.
  • Finally, unsold inventory of detached luxury houses is mounting fast. For example, only 3% of the 117 properties worth more than $6 million have sold this year. So, 97% linger.

This is the start, not the end. The impact of Comrade Premier Horgan’s market-killing plan has been largely psychological so far, as the spec tax is just being legislated. Sentiment has turned negative against BC almost everywhere outside the province, since the notion of seriously taxing long-time property owners just because they have Alberta or Ontario license plates is anti-Canadian. Ripping off buyers coming in from other countries with a massive 20% surcharge looks xenophobic and tribal. It makes BC seem like a backwater economy. The river of money that jurisdictions like Florida and California welcome to help pay for local services, is slowing to a dry trickle in the Lower Mainland and on the Island. Meanwhile mortgage regs are pushing demand into condos, escalating the debt of newbie buyers.

Sales go first, prices later. The only brake on valuations now is the paucity of listings. When it becomes clear there are several years of NDP incompetence, rigid ideology and trial-and-error legislation ahead, sellers will be scrambling to get out. Mr. Angell will have many more ‘worsts’ to record.

226 comments ↓

#1 For those about to flop... on 04.22.18 at 4:12 pm

Pink Pollen falling in Vancouver.

Of all my cases ,these guys are as good as any example of someone who I hope makes it out o.k as their nerves have probably suffered enough after trying to get their money back for 18 months now.

After noticing things were not the same in my neighborhood in the fall of 2016 as was being reported in the media,and after taking a look around the city to see if the problem was more widespread ,this house on Mons Drive was one of earliest cases I discovered that matched what I was seeing on the ground.

After taking a break for a while ,they just put it back on the market for 1.49 after coughing up 1.4 at the peak in May 2016.

The assessment is in their favour, but even when they had it on for 1.3 and were seemingly prepared to face their fate ,despite being on the lower rungs of the Vancouver ladder,they couldn’t get an acceptable offer.

They would have been amongst the first potential sellers in the city to discover that this segment of the market was no longer coveted as it had been in the 15 or so years previous.

This is the third calendar year that this house has been for sale.

I’m rooting for ya.

Justa get it done ,mon…

M43BC

3406 mons Drive, Vancouver paid 1.4 May 2016 ass1.55 asking 1.49

Oct 15:$1,628,000 < 2016
Jan 25:$1,499,000
Change: – 129000.00 -8%

2016-12-13 : $1,599,800
2017-01-16 : $1,549,000
2017-01-25 : $1,499,000
2016-10-15 : $1,628,000
2016-11-08 : $1,599,800
2017-10-30 : $1,300,000
2018-04-19 : $1,498,000

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/3406-mons-drive

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAwMlhIVg==

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Feel free to make a donation.

Flop For Fox Fund…

http://www.terryfox.org/get-involved/ways-to-give/

#2 Stan Brooks on 04.22.18 at 4:13 pm

Read the comments:

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/5-reasons-why-gas-prices-080000482.html

It is game over Boyz.

#3 Bobs ur uncle on 04.22.18 at 4:18 pm

Only question for me is whether lower sales trickle out to the areas of the province where the new spec taxes don’t (yet) apply. Or whether those will now see a spike instead.

#4 Andrewski on 04.22.18 at 4:20 pm

My eyes must be deceiving me, as I’m seeing things (in south Mississauga) I’ve not seen for quite some time, open house signs & I don’t mean one here or there, I mean handfuls lined up at street corners. Drive along Lakeshore Rd & see for yourself. At 1 corner a realtor has hired someone to stand with his open house sign, waving it around, because that’s what will draw potential buyers… This is just the start of the $h/t-storm!

#5 Cow Man on 04.22.18 at 4:23 pm

Sir Garth:

You state:” Ripping off buyers coming in from other countries with a massive 20% surcharge looks xenophobic and tribal. It makes BC seem like a backwater economy.”

Try buying farmland in Quebec if you are not a Quebec resident. A society does not secure a culture and an identity by putting itself up for sale to the highest bidder.

Of course the desire to save a culture or an identity may now be verboten in Mr. Dress Ups Canada.

Anyone can buy up to 10 acres of farmland in Quebec. Working farms require a provincial ownership component. – Garth

#6 Andrewski on 04.22.18 at 4:24 pm

A buddy’s spouse works in a real estate office in Surrey BC & she reports last year around this time, realtors at the location where she works were bringing in deals daily. This month, the entire office, with 8 days left in the month, have brought in a total of 4! Screeching halt I’d say.

#7 Stan Brooks on 04.22.18 at 4:29 pm

Absolutely mind-blowing stupidity of the sheeple.
Exceptional case of collective delusion.

This will be studied in the history of collective mental disorders,

#8 8thandmain on 04.22.18 at 4:32 pm

Couldn’t care less, bring on the melt. maybe it will deter Chinese triad gang money flowing in through bc casinos and laundered through real estate and their fentanyl flooding the streets. Way to go NDP. Eby seems to be the only one acknowledging this.

#9 Fake News Again on 04.22.18 at 4:40 pm

crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.22.18 at 12:13 pm
@#53 Flake News
“Cue the beer drinking whiskey swilling wine guzzling prudes that call weed users “pot heads”……and whom no very little about science.’
+++++
Apparently what I “know” about the english language trumps what you “no” about science
You wouldnt take a drink from a liquor bottle passed through a crowd of strangers but…..

You wont hesitate to have another hit off a joint passed through a crowd of strangers at the beach…..awesome dude….much less “prudish”.

idiot.

______

And there he is…the stuck up wine swiller who always has to comment on how “great” he is compared to everyone else.

#10 Specuskeptic on 04.22.18 at 4:41 pm

Two things: 1) “Ripping off buyers coming in from other countries with a massive 20% surcharge looks xenophobic and tribal. It makes BC seem like a backwater economy. ”

BCLibs turning a blind eye to laundered/dodgy money, flipping and speculation while maintaining a kleptocracy combined with rampant promulgation of FOMO and the deliberately-promoted cranking up of household debt (and a growing local dependence upon that crazy spending built upon that debt) makes BC seem like a backwater economy. It also makes us left coasters look like suckas.

2) “The river of money that jurisdictions like Florida and California welcome to help pay for local services, is slowing to a dry trickle in the Lower Mainland and on the Island.”

Perhaps some speculative money from out of province driving up prices can help pay for the costs of the fentanyl crisis. It’s not like profits from it and efforts to hide it in the RE market didn’t have anything to do with it – smaller impact than other factors though it may be.

Also, to be sure, it’s clear that federal policy (0/40, low rates, etc.) for the last decade + has had the single biggest impact. Local dynamics merely iced that cake.

I for one welcome our new FBT/speculator tax overlords…. for now.

#11 yvr2zrh on 04.22.18 at 4:42 pm

Garth – I’ve followed you for a long time and I like your work. I’ve met you – and we’ve talked a few times. You’ve got a pretty consistent message and a good view on things. What I don’t seem to understand is why you are so against the government stepping in to torpedo demand and the real estate market and basically expropriate people’s “excess” property.

I would never consider myself a socialist – but – as a fairly successful person earning mid 6-figures, there was no path to a real life in B.C. with the current setup. Without this intervention – which people have basically voted for – entire generations would be unable to “earn” their way into life – they could only inherit it. If I find the market difficult, I can only imagine what it must be for someone earning 1/10th of my income. There is a serious problem and one which could have lead to even a serious physical revolution in the medium term.

All the government has done is said “If you own real estate which is beyond your primary residence, that will cost you more in taxes. Frankly – a lot of taxes – and that’s just the way it will be. The reason is that we don’t have sufficient housing stock as it is to house those in what they should be housed in (If a doctor earns $1M per year – they should live accordingly – or they will leave), and – this excess house wealth that people have accumulated or are speculating on is an economic externality that those holding the excess real estate impose on those who don’t have even basic primary residence real estate.

Ultimately, if the current policies “shake the tree” a bit – and get a few thousand units into the market for people to buy and live in – then I think it has been a success. Also, if it prevents others from continuing to look to purchase more property, it will remove demand from the market which is propping up prices.

Finally – these changes will force those who are living with a non-resident bread winner to pay taxes – lots of taxes – based on what they live in. I’m not sure I 100% agree with this one but you have to see that it is a bit of a loop hole when you can be married and have children but your spouse is not a tax resident and then you can live without paying taxes (and in many cases – collecting welfare etc). Private school combined with welfare – you can’t make this stuff up – but it happens.

It’s tough to say where this is not fair. I don’t really have any sympathy for anyone who lives in a $6 million house – regardless of what they paid – and how is subject to some additional taxes. – school taxes. If you’ve owned your second house in Kelowna for 20 years on the lake and that’s your vacation home – that must be nice – – it will now cost you more – a lot more – but you can still keep it if you really want.

The one thing I have a problem with is the naming of the taxes – they are mostly red herrings – and the fact that these taxes are not designed to be revenue neutral – as what you should be doing is re-allocating the “wealth” taxes to reduce income taxes.

I am glad someone has had the b—s to do something. It’s harsh – but it is needed – and all I can hope is that no government comes in and changes the rules before they have a chance to play out.

If the market were to fall by 75% over the course of this program – and if they kept all the restrictions in place to keep it from coming back – I think it would be seen as a serious success.

Precipitous, forced house price declines will come with big economic consequences – for your six-figure income as well as real estate. Be careful what you wish for. – Garth

#12 crossbordershopper on 04.22.18 at 4:45 pm

realtors like many other service jobs dont really produce anything, just exchange time for money, they should get a fee for service not a piece of the price.
same with money managers, i have no idea why money managers fund advisors etc get a percentage of the asset. does a mechanic do that, example if a part is 100 or 500 depending on the car and the item does the price increase because the car is worth more, same time to install, fixed price for time, regardless of the value of the car.
its all about what you can steal from people, i still think everyone should work for 15 bucks an hour.
and the ndp will do their best to make it happen, looking forward to it.
greed, greed, see where it gets you, the politicians will simply redirect money from the haves to the nots. simple the only question is the degree and how to structure it.
you either give it to the bumbs or they take it from you, you decide what society you want to have, but everyone has to eat in the end regardless if they work or not.
life for most people is irrelevent anyway, waiting for my mininum governement cheque, for most its better than the hell hole life most of us lead anyway

#13 RM on 04.22.18 at 4:46 pm

In a decade-plus-old building in Burnaby, there’s a 2bd, 2 bath 1040 sq ft. unit on the 25th floor asking $900,000. Monthly maintenance fees of $350. That’s nearly a million after closing costs for a box in a building already half-way through its prime. No land. Crazy!

#14 Islander on 04.22.18 at 4:57 pm

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/globe-investigation-into-money-laundering-in-bc-real-estate-will-lead-to-new-rules-ag-says/article38018921/
Thank goodness for Mr. Eby….at least some of our elected officials are looking into the massive problems we have in YVR with money laundering via casinos, real estate etc. About time….not that I as a long time renter can afford to live in my own province any more!

#15 David Pylyp on 04.22.18 at 4:57 pm

Excellent Post

I see the very same indicators here in Toronto. Job growth and unemployment numbers now include Part Time positions.

Seniors hoping to cash out may have fewer customers.

David Pylyp

#16 Smartalox on 04.22.18 at 5:05 pm

Not mentioned in this piece, but still relevant, is that Vancouver’s Air BnB laws kicked in on Thursday. Now would-be Microtel managers will have to get a city business license, and Air BnB will be reporting the addresses of their sites, and the licensee’s names to the city.

They’ll also start collecting taxes on behalf of the Province and the metro Vancouver region.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/vancouver-s-short-term-rental-bylaws-take-effect-april-19-1.4614330

Next up, Revenue Canada will request all that info for a Retrospective Review of the rents paid on these properties.

Just another nail in the coffin for the real estate market!

#17 robert james on 04.22.18 at 5:08 pm

When houses become commodities such as they have, sh*t happens .. It was going to happen with NDP or without NDP at some point..

#18 Last of the Boomers on 04.22.18 at 5:08 pm

Oops. I seem to have arrived at a prohyperinflation real estate support blog. My bad.

While I’m here I will just mention that since moving to West Vancouver in 2012 (where my job is and where my kids go to school) and while being able to afford a single family dwelling in 2012 (older smaller homes in great location would run approx. $900,000), I followed the advice of the “real estate is going to drop” crew. We have witness the run up of housing prices where the average home is now listed at 2.7 -$ 3,000,000, and upwards from there. That’s over 6 years Garth. Received my end of Tenancy termination papers once again last Monday, (reason given, immediate family members coming to Canada to occupy the suite) so once again we have to pack up the family, spend $2500 on moving company, countless hours searching, packing, cleaning and moving over our holiday time. I followed the advice on your blog back then. Not a good time to buy you said. I have no sympathy for complaints about a drop in sales, or whining from anyone, including you, about potential price drops in West Vancouver. I have had it up-to-here with the constant displacement, and the inability to adequately staff our hospitals, of which housing unaffordability plays a large part. The way you make it sound is as if residential real estate speculation and foreign capital inflow into this one sector is the only game in town!

If you could afford a $900,000 house in 2012, and chose to rent, then you have has six years of great financial markets to grow your obvious wealth. Did you? By the way, the average West Van house cost $1.5 million in 2012, not nine large. – Garth

#19 RudyGQ on 04.22.18 at 5:09 pm

Capitalism and Socialism
Two of the most economically productive provinces in the country are Ontario and Alberta-the highest contributors to the national GDP. Consequently more productivity produces more wealth and as such the most amount of wealthy people live in these two provinces. Contrast this against the BC backdrop whose community has elected to take predominantly a socialist approach. Consequently, socialism does not accelerate wealth building among the most ambitious and creative entrepreneur citizens but instead dampens incentives to build prosperity and rather redistribute from those who have to those who don’t.

In a global context each philosophy (capitalism & socialism) has its benefits and draw backs. One isn’t necessarily better than the other. However in the context of economics free market societies tend to have more money in their pockets and are looking for a place to spend it (i.e. BC recreational properties). By the BC government creating policies to ‘protect’ everyday common BCers through diminishing incentives for ‘foreign’ (i.e. out of province) investments, the real damage will be felt by the very same people the policies were designed to protect. When in the history of modern civilization has a policy designed to punish the rich ever had long term sustainable benefits to the middle class/poor class……….never. These polices do not address the real problem. BC’s productivity is underwhelming and thus the people don’t have enough money to compete with the citizens of the ‘have’ provinces.

#20 Ustabe on 04.22.18 at 5:11 pm

Yin and Yang:

A couple of months ago the house next door went up for sale. Got full ask within the week.

Sold to nice people from Vancouver, deal closed, quick possession I was told. Said my good byes to the old neighbours and we went away for a winter vacation.

Come back after a month and a bit and its now another month and the house sits empty.

I wonder if my new neighbours from Vancouver got themselves caught.

I told the newspaper kid to stop delivering and I empty the mail box into a bin on the back deck from time to time but now I’m going to have to do some dandelion pulling (or suffer the consequences on my property) and cut the lawns for them.

#21 Lost...but not leased on 04.22.18 at 5:16 pm

Garth:

Do you have a link to Allan Angells’ report/ speech to his clients?

Thanks

#22 East Vancouver Will Explode on 04.22.18 at 5:28 pm

Garth I won’t dispute your stats for listings in Vancouver, but the reality of the situation on the ground in East Vancouver tells a different story. Open houses for SFD are jamb-packed with young couples and families. Several listings I called about that looked promising already had accepted offers on them. One house on 136 Garden Dr. had kids and young parents everywhere, with realtors outside on their cell-phones. They are sure to get multiple offers for significantly above asking. It’s possible that the cost of condos in Vancouver has reached so high that people are beginning to realize that for slightly more money they can afford a house. My prediction is that East Vancouver is hot and will explode this summer.

Read more carefully. A shortage of listings has concentrated demand, which is falling. So, yeah, lots of competition. Smart people should be selling. – Garth

#23 social engineering? on 04.22.18 at 5:32 pm

DELETED

#24 her on 04.22.18 at 5:35 pm

As you’ve said many times…it was rolling over long before the NDP showed up. This is a result of the extreme rampant speculative behaviour that has taken place over the course of the last 10 years – not the barely enacted new taxation measures.

Feast your eyes and compare Canada to Spain before they went bust – numbers you can easily verify…

Building/FIRE industries – comprising
Spain 20% of economy vs Canada 23% of economy

Spain Mtg debt 65% GDP vs Canada Mtg debt 76% GDP

Spain Household debt 91 % GDP vs Canada >100% GDP

Between 1996 and 2007 (nationally), Spain’s housing prices increased by > 197%. Compare this to Canada. I’d say we’re worse off.

Spain experienced 31 consecutive quarters of yoy decline. In 2008, their first drop was a tad over 10%.
I’d say we have a long way to go down here in Canada ..and these early drops appear to be epic.

#25 Zapstrap on 04.22.18 at 5:42 pm

Dunno … SOLD signs sprouting in my hood out here. More FOR SALE signs too. Cherry trees just about over. And finally some sun and warmth … supposed to hit 20 degrees this week. It’s nice out here …

#26 Musty Basement Dweller on 04.22.18 at 5:48 pm

I hope you are right about the prices eventually dropping in Vancouver Garth. As you note there is not much indication of that here yet, but the stats you are describing in your post today are wonderful early indications that our hard working “politiburo” is on track with their action plan. It’s a good thing that someone started to do something about this joke of a real estate example here in Vancouver. “Mr. Market” or conservative leaning politicians sure weren’t taking care of things.

#27 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 04.22.18 at 5:50 pm

Ripping off buyers coming in from other countries with a massive 20% surcharge looks xenophobic and tribal.
……………………..

What about affordability for the average born and raised Canadian family making the average family income ? Do you even give a rat’s buttock about them ?

Not any more than the family that has chosen our nation. Like I said, tribal. – Garth

#28 pathcontrolmonk on 04.22.18 at 5:50 pm

y#12 vr2zrh – Ditto what you said.

Garth, there are consequences to doing nothing too. Time to burn down the rotten forest.

Rash words. You will not be happy with the result of a fire. – Garth

#29 Reynolds531 on 04.22.18 at 5:54 pm

Does anyone else think it’s ironic that dude is wearing work boots?

Behold, Canada’s future.

#30 Alberta Ed on 04.22.18 at 5:57 pm

The Dippers have a dismal record of destroying wealth-creating resource development, stretching all the way back to Comrade Harcourt. It’s difficult to see why anyone would invest in BC today. Then again, oolachan oil lamps cast a nice glow and you can light your spliff off them, once BC has done away with fossil fuels.

#31 Last of the Boomers on 04.22.18 at 6:02 pm

Link to Angell notes to clients.

http://blog.theangellgroup.com/wp-content/themes/ama/images/blog-bottom.jpg

Ross Kay also hosted him in Feb or early March. Great listen!

#32 Sales go first, prices later. on 04.22.18 at 6:04 pm

Sales go first, prices later.

Never heard that one before on this blog.

#33 crdt on 04.22.18 at 6:06 pm

“Our government continues to steal the equity from our houses.”

I am going to lock my doors….

#34 Bibi on 04.22.18 at 6:08 pm

I want to believe that BC real estate is a rock solid investment and can only go higher and higher Calling on Blacksheep to support this belief with his solid reasoning and wise words. Lets hear it again Blacksheep, how you got back into the RE game and how to be a winner like you.

#35 Hindsight on 04.22.18 at 6:09 pm

What a ****** you really are Garth….the BS that in the yvr market and its corrupt money laundering foundations are clear for anyone to see….that is anyone but you !!!….this needed to happen, is welcomed by most and is the putting right of blatant criminal activity and tax evasion on a massive scale….yet you complain instead of support ?????

#36 eightlock on 04.22.18 at 6:10 pm

We are in a full on housing crisis in BC. We do not have any more time for the market to “roll over on it’s own.”

Due to policies and innaction from former conservative governments; 40 year amortizations w/ zero down, RRSP homebuyers plan, provincial home buyer loan matching, CRA letting speculators abuse the personal residence exemption, law enforcement letting criminals launder their drug money through the housing market, rock bottom interest rates, blind eye to the banks letting financial illiterates borrow up to their eye balls…people in this province have democratically chosen to have a government that will address the problem of housing. You may not like it, but this is how democracy works. When the people become unhappy with the direction a government is taking they vote in a different one. You conservatives might not like it but this is how democracy is supposed to work.

The stance of doing nothing, letting Laissez-faire capitalism and natural market forces return housing to a price people can afford is actually not capitalism, it is anarchism.

#37 Sitting on the toilet thinking on 04.22.18 at 6:12 pm

This is what happens when you have central bankers putting 8.5 trillion dollars of liquidity in world markets for 2.5 trillion of growth for the last 10 years. 6 trillion dollars to blow up assets all over the world. The consequence of that is people electing stupid governments because they’re pissed off. Don’t blame governments they are just are reflection of people’s frustration.

#38 OttawaMike on 04.22.18 at 6:15 pm

Why is Global news doing a piece on fentynal money laundering via Triads and casinos to Vancouver real estate?

And what happened to all the FINTRAC reporting surrounding a home sale? I didn’t fill out any forms for that on my latest purchase in 2017.
Unlike previous deals.

#39 Dee on 04.22.18 at 6:16 pm

Damned if you do and damned if you dont. You cant expect a calm reaction to a parabolic rise. I believe the avg person should be able to afford an average home. Shelter is a basic need and the cost of owning shelter should not be in the stratosphere. This whole housing bubble is an embarassment and shame. Time and time again I speak to people who make it seem like having a dinner out is some sort of luxury. It is not. The fruits of your labour (and your spouse’s) for 5/6 days a week should allow for people to go out on a night out. The truth is ridiculous housing costs command those dollars and time. Might as well just go live in a warmer European country. At the end of their week they dont have money but at least they got to go to the beach with friends and family. People work 5/6 days a week with nothing left over over here. Something has to change. It’s time

#40 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 04.22.18 at 6:17 pm

What about affordability for the average born and raised Canadian family making the average family income ? Do you even give a rat’s buttock about them ?

Not any more than the family that has chosen our nation. Like I said, tribal. – Garth
……………………

What a shameful response. You have truly lost your way…..

People are people. You are not special. – Garth

#41 TurnerNation on 04.22.18 at 6:21 pm

Life in Kanada:

You know you’ve made it when you cram your posterior into a seat of a godawful airline’s plane (Slumwing,
Air Transfat) and jet off to a resort where they’ll feed you as much rotgut and e-coli as you can handle. 50/50 says you spend most of this time hunched over a latrine (if the utilities are working or its hurricane season).

Don’t even think of leaving your compound, over fear the locals will hack you to pieces.

Bonus points if said country is run by a communist dictator, is in the midst of a narco war, or is hopelessly corrupted.

This is living man!

#42 Newcomer on 04.22.18 at 6:29 pm

I don’t believe I’ve heard anyone say the expect a crash without a recession. Both are coming. Both will be less destructive if they happen earlier. The NDP is lancing the boil now, and it will hurt because the Libs let it fester for 20 years. That in no way means that it would be a good idea for the NDP to let more puss accumulate.

#43 TRUMP on 04.22.18 at 6:31 pm

GOOD….. GET IT OVER WITH!!!!

IT WONT BE LONG BEFORE OUR GOVERNMENT IMPLODES ON ITSELF.

CANADA WILL TOPPLE JUST LIKE THE ROMAN EMPIRE DID …… OVERTAXATION AND GOVERNMENT MISMANAGEMENT.

#44 ben on 04.22.18 at 6:35 pm

It’s looking grim Garth. Will the govt do the equivalent of a new Home Buyers Plan to prop up the market just at the time it was destined to fall, thereby storing up more problems on someone else’s watch?!

#45 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.22.18 at 6:38 pm

@#9 Flake News…again
“And there he is…the stuck up wine swiller who always has to comment on how “great” he is compared to everyone else.”
+++++

Actually. Truth be know.
Wine is about the only thing I dont swill…..(I know ,I know….you’re thinking “Philistine!”)……
But on another more important segway.
Since you seem to enjoy destroying brain cells with toxic gas……
Will you pull my finger the next time we’re in an elevator?

#46 For those about to flop... on 04.22.18 at 6:41 pm

Pink Pollen falling in West Vancouver.

Here is another long term case that also thought the best course of action was to hold on and wait for the market to possibly come back to life.

These guys just like my previous post have been trying to get the bulk of their money back since late 2016.

They are on the hook for 1.51 and the listing focuses on what they would like to be able to sell , as opposed to what they actually have for sale.

They know by now.

They bought at the Summit…

M43BC

6236 Summit Avenue, West Vancouver paid 1.51 now asking 1.46

Oct 26:$1,688,000 <2016
Jan 29: $1,649,000
Change: – 39000.00 -2%

2017-01-29 : $1,649,000
2017-05-15 : $1,850,000
2017-06-28 : $1,599,000
2016-10-26 : $1,688,000
2018-04-03 : $1,468,000

https://www.zolo.ca/west-vancouver-real-estate/6236-summit-avenue

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAyOTBFQg==

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Feel free to make a donation.

Flop For Fox Fund…

http://www.terryfox.org/get-involved/ways-to-give/

#47 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.22.18 at 6:42 pm

I drove around Burnaby this am and then took the same route back this afternoon…..and listings have EXPLODED.
House “For Sale” signs are up on every block and multiple houses per block are for sale.
Unbelievable.
I cant remember that amount of listing signs pop up in a single day….
Panic setting in?
Lets see what May brings……

#48 Undead Karl Marx on 04.22.18 at 6:44 pm

My warmest applause to Comrade Horgan for making at least some effort to address the fundamental contradiction between use value and exchange value which continues to inflict heavy damage on the social fabric of BC.

There are but two classes: those who produce value and those who feed upon them. These most recent decades have been a feeding frenzy for the parasitic landed property owners of Vancouver and Victoria. They’ve been rewarded with many lifetimes’ worth of income for pure idleness. If they must now suffer some modest correction in their totally unearned wealth, no one ought to shed any tears on their behalf.

#49 Linda on 04.22.18 at 6:44 pm

I don’t think buyers are ‘confused’. I think buyers have finally come to their senses & have realized that an average household income of less than $80,000 annually isn’t enough to cover the cost of a mortgage (esp. with rising rates) of houses that are being listed at a million plus. I did do a search on SD housing under one million for Vancouver; the one site I went to showed exactly 13 properties listed for under a million. The least expensive were on Indian lands – beautiful places, very well priced but a current annual rental fee of $20,000 per year for the land the houses sit upon probably puts buyers off. The remaining homes for sale were most of them in the upper 900K range. Less than a million, yes – but not by much.

#50 Nemesis on 04.22.18 at 6:46 pm

“The river of money that jurisdictions like Florida and California welcome to help pay for local services…”… TrickleDownLaissezFaireGT

[LATIMES] – Los Angeles’ homelessness crisis is a national disgrace

…”There are close to 58,000 homeless people in Los Angeles county. That’s a stunning, bewildering, tragic number – in a region that’s home to some of the richest people in the world. This is an L.A. Times editorial series.”…

http://www.latimes.com/opinion/editorials/la-ed-homeless-crisis-overview-20180225-htmlstory.html

#51 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.22.18 at 6:52 pm

@#41 Turnernation
“….. if said country is run by a communist dictator, is in the midst of a narco war, or is hopelessly corrupted….”
++++++

vacationing in BC are we?

#52 Moses71 on 04.22.18 at 6:55 pm

What? Economy to lose how many thousands of jobs due to real estate price/equity decline? You mean we may have to devise another way to compensate for jobs aside from real estate, the way we were doing decades prior to the last? When people could afford to live closer to where they work? What? Don’t see a problem with that picture. Guess Canadians need to put their thinking caps back on re: ways to boost economy other than using real estate as a commodity, which lands you flat on your face, anyways.

#53 Harrison Bergeron on 04.22.18 at 6:58 pm

If you’re feeling down or wanting a look at life in Vancouver simply go to BC Courts and have a look at

Thiessen V Soprovich

All the gory details for all to see, some insights also…

#54 Ian on 04.22.18 at 7:01 pm

US yield curve close to inversion. Recession ahead!

The rate rises are done.

https://on.mktw.net/2K4Ctdn

#55 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 04.22.18 at 7:08 pm

What about affordability for the average born and raised Canadian family making the average family income ? Do you even give a rat’s buttock about them ?

Not any more than the family that has chosen our nation. Like I said, tribal. – Garth
……………………

What a shameful response. You have truly lost your way…..

People are people. You are not special. – Garth
……………………….

You have gone non sequitur Garth. Are you hanging out with Smoking Man ?

#56 Timmy on 04.22.18 at 7:14 pm

The nerve of Horogan, what does he think this is? That hard working taxpayers deserve affordable housing? Come on, it is an investment. Who cares about average wage earners–right Garth?

You seriously think the government will make it possible for you to buy a house in Van without destroying the economy? How? – Garth

#57 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.22.18 at 7:19 pm

@#70 Flake news…again
“A spelling error? Really?”
++++++
No no.
No spelling error.
You spelled “no” correctly.
As your Mom says when you repeatedly hit the toilet, “Good JOB!”
You just used “no” when you meant “know”……ya know?

So, moving forward.
Whether (weather?) you (ewe?) want to (two?, too?) be considered an illiterate, grammatically challenged, pot smoking boob( boob?) by your (you’re?, yor?) friends (fiends?) when you visit their( they’re? there?) pot farm (grow op? grow up?)
Just put their minds at ease and let them know you can still count…… grams, ounces and pounds.

#58 TS on 04.22.18 at 7:26 pm

Government interference to stop money laundering from a country of one billion that’s driving up housing prices for all Canadians is warranted

None of the actions I mentioned have anything to do with money laundering. Straw man argument. – Garth

#59 Caleb Landry on 04.22.18 at 7:27 pm

I welcome any and all of what’s happening right now.

It’s long overdue – it’s been made infinitely worse by politicians at every level.

As a little aside – remember this guy?

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/jeff-rubin-leaving-cibc/article20442133/

Top Canadian Economist forecast that oil would perenially stay above $150/barrel…

We all know how that turned out.

Bring on the end of the asset bubble. It can’t come soon enough.

CL

#60 Kilt on 04.22.18 at 7:37 pm

Garth. You are fear mongering worse than the gold bulls. 1.9 million dollar tear downs in Vancouver actually getting listed for their true value will get houses selling again.
Lots of industries would be better off with lower prices. Right now it is a struggle to find people because no one wants to rent a 600 sq ft basement suite for 1500 a month. There is a ton of demand. Just not at these prices

Kilt

#61 ben on 04.22.18 at 7:39 pm

Just to add on the “land in Quebec” thing. Quebec is vast and whenever you venture north of Montreal there are *so many* places with “land for sale” signs (in French!). Also so many cottages up for sale.

Can you imagine how many boomers are going to list their cottages in the next decade as it becomes beyond them to shovel out the snow? So many in this generation own cottages, I guess many will keep them in the family but event then handing one down is passing the problem down. Maintenance. Frozen pipes. Fees for the road clearing. I really think this can only go one way: down.

#62 Everythingisterrible on 04.22.18 at 7:40 pm

Not any more than the family that has chosen our nation. Like I said, tribal. – Garth

Yah why care more about your fellow countrymen’s quality of life, you have no more duty or obligation to fellow citizens then you do to a rich foreigner who is looking for a safe investment to park a couple million dollars incase his home country government shifts back to its more aggressive communist policies.
What a disheartening statement.

The vast majority of people coming here are not wealthy and don’t buy $2 million houses. Exaggeration negates your argument. – Garth

#63 J. Canuck on 04.22.18 at 7:43 pm

It makes BC seem like a backwater economy.

**************
You say that like it’s a bad thing.
After almost 20 (sleepy) years in the Victoria, I note that the tempo of activity has picked up substantially due to the “high tech” sector (whatever the hell that means). Lots of startups over the last 5-7 years mainly focused on software development.
Which is not as sexy as you might think when you realize that starting a software company requires 2 programmers, a server and an office slightly larger than your standard bathroom.
Nevertheless, the developers are going mad and condos are popping up all over the place as quickly as holes can be dug. Reminds me of the booming 70’s and 80’s in Calgary (in between the busts).
Something similar will happen here, I think.

#64 Bitcoinnaire on 04.22.18 at 7:43 pm

So who’s getting ready for the great Cryptocurrency bull run of 2018?

The charts and volumes are signalling a reversal, what are you lads betting on?

I want to see a securitzation token succeed in a single legal jurisdiction, betting on a few low market cap tokens to effect this.

#65 young & foolish on 04.22.18 at 7:47 pm

I have some die-hard socialist friends, and in discussions with them I have come to see the following ….

Free Market Advocate: you are free to decide what/where/how to live.

Socialist: I will get government to force you to accept that which I feel is just and righteous.

#66 morrey on 04.22.18 at 7:50 pm

“High prices, new tax announcements, rising interest rates, and stricter mortgage requirements are among the factors affecting home buyer and seller activity today.”
how many of these factors are the BC NDP’s doing?

The main one at the moment – tax announcements. – Garth

#67 What can I say about that? on 04.22.18 at 7:55 pm

Next they will introduce a grow-op tax in BC. Nonsense.

#68 I’m stupid on 04.22.18 at 7:59 pm

You seriously think the government will make it possible for you to buy a house in Van without destroying the economy? How? – Garth

The reason things got so screwed up in the first place is because of the collapse of interest rates. The government flooded the market with liquidity and people kept borrowing.

Now we have a big problem because most debt is Realestate related and that takes a long time to fix. Rising interest rates will cause a recession.

Raise rates and tank the economy. Don’t raise rates and import inflation with a collapsing dollar value. Damned if you do damned if you don’t. The party is over now it’s time to pay the bill!

Gradually increasing rates will not crash the economy since rates generally increase with economic growth. Capricious and politically-motivated taxation, on the other hand, is a job-killer. – Garth

#69 Reynolds531 on 04.22.18 at 8:02 pm

#55 Watson

I think what you and others are getting at is the idea that living here, paying taxes, contributing and paying your dues should mean that you are your kids will be better off. That there is or should be a long term dividend to being in the game.

I think what Garth is getting at is that you have to build it through wealth. Ideally by being smarter than a regular working Joe, and passing both the wealth and the smarts on. Otherwise living hand to mouth makes you the same as a newcomer.

#70 For those about to flop... on 04.22.18 at 8:03 pm

Pink Pollen falling in West Vancouver.

This one is actually for sale by the same group of realtors that Garth wrote about in his post, Angell Hasman and Associates.

They have their work cut out for them.

Been at it on and off for a year.

The biggest bit of news about this one perhaps is when they originally started trying to sell it and I first reported it ,the assessment was 4.5 and now it is only assessed at 3.42.

I don’t recall seeing a bigger rollback than this yet,I’m sure they are probably out there , I just haven’t seen it.

In the middle of trying to exit the market they got a 24% rollback in assessed value.

Think about that…

M43BC

2592 Nelson Avenue, West Vancouver paid 3.68 2016 ass 4.5 now asking 3.78

Now assessed 3.42 2017

Apr 19:$4,098,000
Jun 21: $3,598,000
Change: – 500000.00 -12%

2017-04-19 : $4,098,000

2017-05-11 : $4,198,000

2017-06-21 : $3,598,000

2017-07-05 : $3,998,000

2018-04-04 : $3,788,000

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAyOTRKVA==

https://www.zolo.ca/west-vancouver-real-estate/2592-nelson-avenue

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Feel free to make a donation.

Flop For Fox Fund…

http://www.terryfox.org/get-involved/ways-to-give/

#71 Steve French on 04.22.18 at 8:04 pm

I say, let it burn baby burn!

One two three four… we’ve got disco property war in Vancouver!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=47gahDuOff8

Time to clear out the economic underbrush…

#72 Caleb Landry on 04.22.18 at 8:05 pm

Cry me a river Allan Angell – have a read of this interview from Business in Vancouver from a few years back…

https://biv.com/article/2015/06/4m-teardown-sells-1m-over-asking-price-throwing-mo

Quote – Verbatim…

Allan Angell of Angell Hasman, a West Vancouver real estate company that caters to the high end of the market, puts that figure higher. “I’m selling 80% of my high-end houses to Chinese,” he said.

Good riddance.

#73 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 04.22.18 at 8:05 pm

The nerve of Horogan, what does he think this is? That hard working taxpayers deserve affordable housing? Come on, it is an investment. Who cares about average wage earners–right Garth?

You seriously think the government will make it possible for you to buy a house in Van without destroying the economy? How? – Garth
……………………………

Whether the NDP crashes the economy or house prices fall all on their own like you have been preaching for so long does not really matter. Housing IS the economy and when housing crashes the economy will crash. Let’s just get it done quickly and move on and invest in something that can produce real wealth and jobs such as business and industry and manufacturing like we should have in 2009.

#74 RW_Z on 04.22.18 at 8:05 pm

“Ripping off buyers coming in from other countries with a massive 20% surcharge looks xenophobic and tribal.”

If xenophobia and tribalism are so bad, maybe we should tax all these xenophobic, tribal people?

Where you live, and who lives around you, adds up to most of the reason you’re forced to spend most of your life working. The notion that it would be “mean” to prevent investors from the other side of the world from making some extra profit off the worsening of your life is profoundly asinine. And it’s reserved, once again, for people who are not impacted by any of the consequences of their sentiments.

#75 Harrison Bergeron on 04.22.18 at 8:12 pm

All this pot talk brings up a point about our current currency currently. Before the change to the new bills in the old days the dealers would simply sort the bills by colour and then weigh them to count. Old currency weighed exactly 1 gram. Grab any old bill and see for yourself. These days the weights aren’t consistent and increase overheads with sorting detail. Very broken windowish if you ask me. See! the government does create meaningful work.

#76 conan on 04.22.18 at 8:12 pm

#12 crossbordershopper

“realtors like many other service jobs dont really produce anything, just exchange time for money, they should get a fee for service not a piece of the price.”

That would be an economic disaster. Sales people trigger the movement of money. It is this money movement that creates wealth, and all of the jobs.

Business owners will always pay more than decent money for those that can bring in new business. Sales people know how to herd cats, and that is a highly valued skill in the business world.

Why would you want to stop or interfere in that? The result would be less competition, more money to the big players, and devastation to the small and medium companies that could not financially compete using TV and internet media.

No one would be a sales person if they did not get paid well for bringing in big sales. No sales = the economy stopping.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vTwJzTsb2QQ

#77 KAC on 04.22.18 at 8:13 pm

#13 RM on 04.22.18 at 4:46 pm

“In a decade-plus-old building in Burnaby, there’s a 2bd, 2 bath 1040 sq ft. unit on the 25th floor asking $900,000. Monthly maintenance fees of $350. That’s nearly a million after closing costs for a box in a building already half-way through its prime. No land. Crazy!”
fascinating.

—————————————————————————-

Wow, yes that does sound crazy. How is this 25 floor building supported? Is it hanging from cables attached to hot air balloons?

All the condos I’ve seen are built on land which belongs to the condo owners. The landless one you mention sounds unique and perhaps it’s priced high because of its
mysterious denial of the laws of physics. Truly fascinating, do you have pictures of this miraculous structure?

#78 Long-Time Lurker on 04.22.18 at 8:13 pm

#36 eightlock on 04.22.18 at 6:10 pm
We are in a full on housing crisis in BC. We do not have any more time for the market to “roll over on it’s own.”

>Why is it a housing crisis? Canada is the second largest country in the world. Move somewhere else. Envy?

#42 Newcomer on 04.22.18 at 6:29 pm
I don’t believe I’ve heard anyone say the expect a crash without a recession. Both are coming. Both will be less destructive if they happen earlier. The NDP is lancing the boil now, and it will hurt because the Libs let it fester for 20 years. That in no way means that it would be a good
idea for the NDP to let more puss accumulate.

>How is crashing the economy going to be good for BC? Businesses will shut down. People will be unemployed and leave. The housing market will return to normal but this is really just about you wanting a house.

#48 Undead Karl Marx on 04.22.18 at 6:44 pm
My warmest applause to Comrade Horgan for making at least some effort to address the fundamental contradiction between use value and exchange value which continues to inflict heavy damage on the social fabric of BC.

There are but two classes: those who produce value and those who feed upon them. These most recent decades have been a feeding frenzy for the parasitic landed property owners of Vancouver and Victoria. They’ve been rewarded with many lifetimes’ worth of income for pure idleness. If they must now suffer some modest correction in their totally unearned wealth, no one ought to shed any tears on their behalf.

>In a free society where people can create their own businesses, seek desired employment and leave undesired employment how are people being exploited? Everyone is allowed to create their own value and trade it for the price they see fit (generally).
Who jacked-up the house prices? The owners? You can ask for a price but buyers don’t have to pay it.
If you think communism works just go to Cuba or North Korea. By the way, they’ll be failed states soon: probably in a decade or less –just ask Venezuela.

Go ahead. Make a rebuttal.

#79 eightlock on 04.22.18 at 8:36 pm

>Why is it a housing crisis? Canada is the second largest country in the world. Move somewhere else. Envy?

Why is it a housing crisis?///////////

The median salary of a person in bc is 38k per year. The The average cost of housing is 1.1 million. The vacancy rate for rentals is less than 1%.

source: http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/crea-house-prices-1.4487522

Canada is the second largest country in the world. Move somewhere else. Envy?//////////////

Yes canada is a geographically large country. Very astute observation of you. However the land mass of Canada has nothing to do with its macroeconomics or cost of housing.

Go ahead. Make a rebuttal.////////

There is nothing to rebut, if you read your comment you did not make any arguments.

The median house price in BC is $677,200, down from $704,300 in 2017. It is not $1.1 million. – Garth

#80 Tony on 04.22.18 at 8:38 pm

Re: #32 Sales go first, prices later. on 04.22.18 at 6:04 pm

You must be new to this blog, real estate and basic economics.

#81 Trojan House on 04.22.18 at 8:38 pm

…”the notion of seriously taxing long-time property owners just because they have Alberta or Ontario license plates is anti-Canadian.”

It’s like buying beer and alcohol in Quebec and bringing it back to New Brunswick. The Supreme Court says it’s okay for the government to “punish” you.

If you live in NB and drink it in Quebec, no problem. That’s the correct analogy. – Garth

#82 MaxBerniersShorts on 04.22.18 at 8:40 pm

I’m actually pretty disappointed in your post Garth, for a number of reasons. First, it’s clear the market had peaked before the NDP came to power. Second, B20 has had far more of an effect than the FBT ever did, where’s the criticism for OSFI? Third, where did you expect single family homes sales to go when people can no longer afford them? You spent years pointing out how overpriced they were.

I have argued the market was poised to wither on its own, and thus the tax barrage is dangerous overkill. But BCers will just have to discover that. As for B20 I’ve made it plenty clear this has decreased overall affordability. Markets correct on their own, or collapse when pushed. Horgan is trotting down the wrong path. – Garth

#83 Harrison Bergeron on 04.22.18 at 8:47 pm

From what I can cobble together both sides get nailed in the house thing. Either too much wealth or not enough. The neighbours for example, an indian family, are in crisis, and have been for years due to the fact the kids are unable to secure mates. The 4 children are well into their 30’s and none have spouses. So to sum it up the parents came in the 70’s and no doubt had every intention of things going along as planned but their lust for housing has in effect “shot them in the foot” so to speak. There will be no pitter patter of tiny feet running around the parents of these children house. Too many assets and protectionism over said assets in addition to cultural ways seems to be a gene killer for some families. No potential spouse stands a chance the way THE PARENTS set things up. So the parents dreams/hopes in addition to grandchildren (you know they want it) to carry on has been extinguished. I find this becoming rather common as time passes. All self inflicted pain with zero insight to their condition or reality of what they FULLY PARTICIPATED in. They put on a brave face but the math gets worse as each day ticks away…..

#84 Vanrentor on 04.22.18 at 8:50 pm

I follow the Tsawwassen, BC market as I am waiting to vulch in a few years. Listings are at an all time high today at 183. My realturd sent me April sales up to the 19th and there were only 5. He just returned his leased vehicle and is preparing for a slow year.

The numbers tell the story but it is amazing how the people I talk to have no idea. They think it is business as usual, real estate only goes up and mortgage debt is good debt. When this sentiment changes look out!

#85 Dod In The Fight on 04.22.18 at 8:55 pm

The bigest thing going on out here are pipeline wars, and yet all I ever find on this blog is a single repeat and largly incorrect narritive regarding the cause of YVR RE woes. In a phrase OCD.

Pipeline wars are a remote abstraction to most families. – Garth

#86 -=jwk=- on 04.22.18 at 8:56 pm

I have argued the market was poised to wither on its own

If it did collapse on it’s own, would you insist the government ‘take action’ to keep the party going? if not, what’s the difference here? All the NDP has done is accelerate things by a year or two. Same end result.

A measured decline in real estate is not the same as an induced collapse in an economy where a quarter of the GDP is based upon it. Everyone suffers then. How hard is that to understand? – Garth

#87 Terrie on 04.22.18 at 9:07 pm

“Comrade Premier Horgan’s market-killing plan”
Your writing, while usually brilliant and
insightful is showing a tendency towards labelling. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labelling

Some people earn them. – Garth

#88 InternetHam on 04.22.18 at 9:16 pm

I’m confused, I first found this blog and got the impression that the poster was someone who was sick of the insanely high prices, clearly due to speculation / foreign investment?

Maybe I’m misinterpreting and you think the policies introduced are too far? Or are you one of the property spruiker / bull types who is angry you may make a loss?

It is a shame ‘normal’ locals right in the middle may be impacted, but selling the country out to foreigners and screwing the middle and lower class is not good, at all.

Am I getting this blog wrong? this post seems different to several others I’ve read recently.

#89 Victoria Renter on 04.22.18 at 9:19 pm

http://jlcollinsnh.com/2013/05/29/why-your-house-is-a-terrible-investment/ <—- thought this would resonate with Garth and friends.

Owing a home is a terrible investment.

Yet I'd still like a house for my family someday.

#90 Wazzup on 04.22.18 at 9:29 pm

Hello Garth,

I have read this column for a while and appreciate your views.
Today you are “working” too hard with your comments.

Just for today, hold back your comments, give the people a chance to have their say. Just let those comments “flow” uninterrupted baby!
The folks making comments make your blog better.
They are witnessing Math, Physics and Economics take over from the silliness of the last few years.
You know the ole saying “what will be , will be”.

Keep up the great work,
Cheers!

#91 I’m stupid on 04.22.18 at 9:29 pm

Gradually increasing rates will not crash the economy since rates generally increase with economic growth. Capricious and politically-motivated taxation, on the other hand, is a job-killer. – Garth

Agreed, but BOC has no control over how fast the US raises rates. The BOC dropped the ball during the Gfc. Since Canada as a whole wasn’t affected like other countries (because household debt exploded) interest rates should have never been dropped so low. Now we’re pickled in debt at a time when US households have nearly recovered from the last recession. How does this end well?

I’m not disagreeing with what you’re saying about NDP policy purposefully creating a hard landing in BC. I’m saying that with debt levels at historic highs I can’t see how household spending doesn’t contract and cause a prolonged recession.

#92 For those about to flop... on 04.22.18 at 9:30 pm

Pink Pollen falling in Vancouver.

These guys have gotten creative or desperate,depending on your take on things.

When I first reported on these guys ,they were trying to get 2.7 for a property in East Van which they paid 2.53 for in April 2016.

For reasons only known to them,they aborted plans to develop the property and decided to split the lot in two but now find someone with deeper pockets to finish the project.

Probably not a good chapter in their lives.

They just want to grab the page and Turner…

M43BC

2995 Turner Street, Vancouver paid 2.53 April 2016 ass 2.57 asking 1.318split lot 2.636 for both.

Feb 1:$2,788,000
Jul 12: $2,700,000
Change: – 88000.00 -3%

This is the new pitch.

“Build to suite/Investor/Builder Alert! 66×132 lot which already subdivided into 2 33×132 lots. Plans have been submitted into City Hall for two 3 level detached homes with laneway. Owner looking to custom build for 1 or both properties and also willing to sell this site with building plans. Centrally located to schools,transportation, shopping, and in the heart of the Renfrew area. Great opportunity and lots of potential. List price is per lot. Call for more details. Don’t miss out!”

2017-02-01 : $2,788,000
2017-06-28 : $2,780,000
2017-07-12 : $2,700,000
2018-02-23 : $1,388,000

Now 1.318

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/2995-turner-street

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAwMlJTOA==

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Feel free to make a donation.

Flop For Fox Fund…

http://www.terryfox.org/get-involved/ways-to-give/

#93 Sydneysider on 04.22.18 at 9:33 pm

To put things in perspective, sellers of SFHs in Burnaby , which are typically ancient dumps, are still asking for about $100K over assessment, whereas the places that do sell (at least in my area) seem to go for near ($10-30K) the assessed value.

#94 Nick B on 04.22.18 at 9:35 pm

The real estate market may get some help from Poloz, sounds like he is comfortable with inflation running above 2%. Per his comments, he’s happy having average inflation at 2% so periods above are just fine as they even out periods below the target. We will see if continued rate hikes in the US cause him to follow. Given our collective debt levels, I’m sure he’s concerned about causing more pain and the cooling RE market. We’ll see what happens.

#95 Bk on 04.22.18 at 9:40 pm

Garth, some of your comments in response to others are ridiculous! Who’s side are you on anyway?

The logical one. – Garth

#96 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 04.22.18 at 9:42 pm

“Comrade Premier Horgan’s market-killing plan”
Your writing, while usually brilliant and
insightful is showing a tendency towards labelling. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labelling

Some people earn them. – Garth
………………………………

In context of argumentation and debate, labelling a debator or position is often (whether consciously or unconsciously) used as a “red herring” to divert or dismiss the argument, in stead of valid argumentation.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labelling

Labels save words. Environmentally responsible. – Garth

#97 Ex-Cowtown on 04.22.18 at 9:53 pm

#3 Bobs ur uncle on 04.22.18 at 4:18 pm

Only question for me is whether lower sales trickle out to the areas of the province where the new spec taxes don’t (yet) apply. Or whether those will now see a spike instead.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Sales in outlying areas took off when people sold in Van, and like Elvis, left the building. This started well before peak house. As houses in YVR become stranded assets people will lose the ability to sell and move away. This means that sales in outlying areas will dry up also. It’s just math, not magic.

#98 SaveRHomes on 04.22.18 at 9:54 pm

The Vancouver real estate market crashing to reflect the taxpaying economy is the best thing that can happen for the long term health of BC. The over priced housing due to untaxed offshore money is killing and driving away all other business that is the heart of BC. The Spec Tax is the best thing possible to target offshore speculators, the limited amount from AB is minor compared to the actual target of tax evading parasitic money from China.
I don’t agree with much of what Horgan is doing, but the Spec Tax is bang on for the big picture in BC until CRA starts doing their job and going after millionaires driving $500k cars and declaring poverty for income tax.

#99 Jay on 04.22.18 at 9:56 pm

20% tax come on, this is nothing these people that boosted our prices to the point that regular working BC people cannot even afford rent let alone buy a home.
40% would be more reasonable.
Or a total ban till things get normalized.

#100 Dog in The Fight on 04.22.18 at 9:57 pm

Pipeline wars are a remote abstraction to most families. – Garth

Sorry Garth, everyone and I mean everyone, is talking about it. Alberta threatening to cut the oil off got everyone’s attention. In my 57 years I have never seen anything as nasty as this, and it is getting worse. If you are right and the dippers and the watermelons (green on the outside, and red on the inside) have engineered a collapse in BC RE. It is going to get very nasty out here.

#101 toronto1 on 04.22.18 at 9:58 pm

this is a chicken and egg type deal in BC

what came first?

without the parabolic, almost insane rise in price the dippers would never had a chance in you know what of being elected.

when the majority of the population-even those in the top 10% or 5% stand no hope of being able to purchase a home this is what happens.

the bigger danger with the communist crowd is how the benchmark of someone being rich keeps dropping lower and lower.

In BC it is not if you own multiple property (even if its a cottage) you are now considered to be rich so pay up

in Ontario- the new threshold if Wynne gets elected is going to be 92K a year . pretty good coin to be making for one person, but watch that number keep dropping….

politicans just respond to what the public wants and they will pledge what ever they need to in order to be elected.

big issue in the coming years will be various levels of govt- municipal, provincial, federal ability to continue to pay the interest on their bonds as interest rates inevitably rise back to their mean. in order to cover that increase plus the additional revenue they have pledged in order to be elected an astounding array of new taxes will need to be created.

the politicians that plead austerity never get elected.

at some point in time, guys like Garth, whose tax burden must already be either near or past 50% of take home will just say enough is enough and either move offshore or just choose to produce less because they already have everything they need for a comfortable life.

whose is left to pay their share of taxes when that happens?

thats right, its the chumps that voted in these communists………..

#102 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 04.22.18 at 10:04 pm

Labels save words. Environmentally responsible. – Garth
………………………

……especially when you are not prevailing with logic.

What a pissy, humourless crew here tonight. – Garth

#103 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 04.22.18 at 10:08 pm

The Biggest Comrade was Harper and the Corporate Conservatives. They lowered requirements for communist CMHC to inflate the housing bubble. No complaints from the SHYSTERS who are not qualified on giving advise on tying shoelaces. I wish Canada would actually have free markets and get rid of CMHC? We know the communist Bankers, Mortgage brokers and the communist SHYSTERS would be screaming like wild animals foaming at the mouth at the very thought. Communism for the rich is ok but communism for the people is bad and we need free markets. lol hypocrite SHYSTERS.

#104 Chaddywack on 04.22.18 at 10:10 pm

My wife and I are easily in the top 1% of income in Vancouver and we could not afford a detached home the way things were going.

If the top 1% cannot afford it who can……? The government had to do something. I don’t blame Horgan one bit for doing what he did.

It’s not xenophobic to put the interests of your own citizens first (well maybe it JT’s world it is, but other than that…..)

#105 Blobby on 04.22.18 at 10:16 pm

Looks to me like the ndp are doing what I voted them in to do. No complaints here, so far so good

#106 Disgruntled on 04.22.18 at 10:18 pm

“This is the start, not the end.”

I certainly hope it isn’t the end considering prices haven’t moved a damn bit here. And Garth your use of the word xenophobia is completely off base and ridiculous in the context of the Vancouver housing market. If you’d been to many open houses here in the last few years perhaps you’d realize that. Of course you live in Toronto. But of course it’s everyone born and raised here earning Canadian incomes who are spending 2 million dollars on those little half houses. Yep it’s just us silly locals.

You can tell foreign people at open houses? Do they come with horns? – Garth

#107 fishman on 04.22.18 at 10:20 pm

Went to the parade in Surrey on Sat. Not much of a parade. Some motorcycles leading a few semis hauling decorated wagons. In them schoolchildren, really old people, chanting priests, anti-infanticide organization & the inevitable Free Khalistan crew. The action is on the street.
What happens is that every Punjabi Sikh within 500 miles comes, puts on traditional gear. The largest gathering of Sikhs outside of India in the world. Then they all congregate in the street & slowly start walking & talking & visiting & eating. 500,000 of them.
The colours are psychedelic. Preponderance of saffron, but yellows,blues,reds,purple on the mens heads. My Punjabi buddies tell me the colour of the turban has no significance Beautiful young Punjabi women, sheer colourful saris draped carelessly over shiny long dark hair & bare shoulders,flashing dark eyes. The sweet, hot smell of cumin from the food stands. Free food,water.
Everyone, & I noticed less than 200 people not dressed in some way with the colours Sikh’s wear was clean, orderly, courteous, no garbage,no cops except a few Sikh RCMP at the roadblocks.
That was something, just standing in the middle of the road looking both ways & as far as the eye can see an undulating moving river of bright colours.
Went to 4:20 on friday. 35,000 visitors & 400 booths. Everyone wore black. Bud,shatter,oil is cheap,cheap.
The Sun run today. 60,000 people 3 lanes wide, 5-8 abreast; took 1 1/2 -2 hours to run by my place. Everyone wore green.

#108 Bill Grable on 04.22.18 at 10:20 pm

How desperate are R/E companies.

My very private cellphone rings and a woman asked for my wife – “I am calling Julie B**** to get her e-mail so we can e-mail her some listings in Montreal”… I hit the ceiling but was polite. She won’t call again. How did she get my cellphone?

Wow….talk about desperate.

They know the party is over….and now the bleeding starts.

Let’s try to get a grasp on how bad this is going to be.

$9 trillion was pumped into the US economy by the Fed….and $2 trillion was the resultant activity in the economy. The other $7 trillion is now wandering through the economy looking for a home and when this kind of ridiculous imbalance hit the beach last month – now would be a very good time to move to oh, anywhere but the construction zone, of Vancouver.

It sucks.

#109 Brett on 04.22.18 at 10:23 pm

Also lets all not forget to boycott ALL BC Products until the pipeline is built. Time to block all gas and oil going to BC. Further inspections on all goods being exported east of BC.

#110 Disgruntled on 04.22.18 at 10:28 pm

“Precipitous, forced house price declines will come with big economic consequences – for your six-figure income as well as real estate. Be careful what you wish for. – Garth”

Seriously this is such a ridiculous argument. In other words anytime there is a bubble that the economy grows to depend on we should simply never let the bubble pop for fear of experiencing some pain. Absolute stupidity.

#111 Surprised on 04.22.18 at 10:32 pm

I am suprised that a left -wing party like the NDP actually did the right thing. They get my vote the next election.

#112 Fake News Again on 04.22.18 at 10:34 pm

crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.22.18 at 7:19 pm
@#70 Flake news…again
“A spelling error? Really?”
++++++
No no.
No spelling error.
You spelled “no” correctly.
As your Mom says when you repeatedly hit the toilet, “Good JOB!”
You just used “no” when you meant “know”……ya know?

So, moving forward.
Whether (weather?) you (ewe?) want to (two?, too?) be considered an illiterate, grammatically challenged, pot smoking boob( boob?) by your (you’re?, yor?) friends (fiends?) when you visit their( they’re? there?) pot farm (grow op? grow up?)
Just put their minds at ease and let them know you can still count…… grams, ounces and pounds.

_____

I quote my brother the systems analyst……”The world is going to be so much better once all the self serving pompous know it all baby boomers are dead…..”

#113 Brett on 04.22.18 at 10:34 pm

The bigest thing going on out here are pipeline wars, and yet all I ever find on this blog is a single repeat and largly incorrect narritive regarding the cause of YVR RE woes. In a phrase OCD.

Pipeline wars are a remote abstraction to most families. – Garth

You are so wrong on this Garth. Come out to Alberta/Sk and it is the biggest topic by far. People want to punish BC economically.

#114 PastThePeak on 04.22.18 at 11:05 pm

Canada is pooched. The SPOC just ruled that provinces can restrict inter-provincial trade in any way as long as it can be shown to be “for a reason other than purely restricting trade”.

It is perfectly fine, the SPOC said, to make it illegal to purchase beer/wine/spirits in one province and bring home to another, because the reason for that law is to control alcohol consumption and is not purely a tariff. I expect the provinces will invest more in policing to increase their fine income.

Not hard to see how a province can make a similar claim for anything else going forward. It is estimated that this type of inter-prov trade restriction already acts as a 7% tax on the economy within Canada. It will only get worse, not better.

This was the final nail in the coffin for TMP. BC now has the basis for legal backing of the highest court to restrict (or at the very least tax highly) the contents on any pipeline by making it an environmental issue – not a pure tariff you see.

The Supreme Court of Canada said it clearly – Canada is not a country, it is a federation. Every province for themselves. Canada is clearly past its peak…

#115 45north on 04.22.18 at 11:05 pm

yvr2zrh: If the market were to fall by 75% over the course of this program – and if they kept all the restrictions in place to keep it from coming back – I think it would be seen as a serious success.

“if the market were to fall by 75%” – you have got to be kidding! You mean if prices were to fall by 75%. In which case, most people would owe more on their mortgages than their houses would be worth. Real estate sales would collapse. Construction and renovation would collapse – I’m thinking Home Depot. Lumber yards. Carpenters, electricians, plumbers. People would default The banks would stop lending.

yvr2zrh is Vancouver to Zurich. as a fairly successful person earning mid 6-figures in other words, you’re a wealthy international jet-setter who can afford a superior attitude but no politician in BC can. Not anything like it.

You say Ultimately, if the current policies “shake the tree” a bit. “Shake the tree a bit” means a price decline of 10%. More than that and the Dippers will panic. I mean full-on panic like when Hillary supporters did a final poll, the day before the election. Problem is one only sees the 10% decline in the rear-view mirror. A 10% price decline is baked in – statements made already guarantee a 10% price decline.

I heard over the kitchen table, that the BC Ministry of Revenue, will be responsible for classifying owners – whether they’re BC residents, Canadian residents or foreigners. So right now out of 1 million property owners, none are classified. It seems altogether likely, that in the first year of the speculation tax, costs of classifying will be more than the revenue collected.

#116 For those about to flop... on 04.22.18 at 11:12 pm

What a pissy, humourless crew here tonight. – Garth

/////////////

What about me?

Here’s something to cheer you up.

A house on Turner Street with dogs up on the front gable with the word Turner written on them…

M43BC

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/2520-turner-street

#117 PastThePeak on 04.22.18 at 11:13 pm

#105 Brett on 04.22.18 at 10:23 pm
Also lets all not forget to boycott ALL BC Products until the pipeline is built. Time to block all gas and oil going to BC. Further inspections on all goods being exported east of BC.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

TMP will never be built. KinderMorgan will walk. There is no way at all to have any certainty of it being built in any length of time due to protestor action, of BC not being able to restrict or tax the contents of the pipeline.

No project that is opposed by radical environmentalists will ever be built in this country. Canada in fact has moved beyond BANANA (Build Absolutely Nothing Anywhere Near Anyone) to just “build nothing”…

#118 Dolce Vita on 04.22.18 at 11:17 pm

YVR RE will become a mess this year and in the next couple of years as large swaths of RE wealth are wiped out.

Many not happy with Garth today but I lived in Calgary during the RE collapse of the early 80’s – after T1s Windfall Profits Tax, etc. A fictional billboard joke of the times was:

Last person out, please turn off the lights.

They were very bad times economically – ALL were hurt, not just a few.

One point though Garth, I do not have much sympathy for investors putting all of their money into a single asset (RE) and then losing a large chunk of it.

They should have known better. They acted irresponsibly and will end up hurting many others because of their actions. Good they will be taken out of the economy for their bad decision making and for many years to come.

Put that money into the hands of responsible investors instead. The only positive that will emerge from all this and in a few years time, as for now, the hurt has just begun.

#119 The Secret Code on 04.22.18 at 11:27 pm

Precipitous, forced house price declines will come with big economic consequences – for your six-figure income as well as real estate. Be careful what you wish for. – Garth

This is by popular demand in BC. And just like I predicted, long-be-hold, realtors in the Okanagan are finally talking about things slowing.

Inventory is building nicely. Money laundering (although still present) is retreating.

Balance market in effect.

I predict buyers market by fall.

I sit with popcorn knowing fireworks can happen at anytime, like a spring market that never shows up.

For anyone with a short memory, in May of 2008 the lights went out over night in Kelowna – just like that.

By 2009 the damage started appearing.

Prices are going to hold along with interest rates for now.

I expect something to crack and show by this winter though as the slow NDP start pushing through money laundering initiatives.

Look at how Eby is behind the media push in getting this message out. They are preparing people for the fall out which is going to be messy.

Valuations are at an insane level thanks to the out of control dirty money.

#120 The Secret Code on 04.22.18 at 11:33 pm

There will be a 35% price correction in BC materializing over the next few years that has the potential to swing wildly and as deep as 70% price drops depending on how disorderly things shake out (the worst case scenario would be a housing meltdown being coupled with economic turmoil going sideways globally).

Nobody knows how much dirty money is propping this thing up. And funny money has a was of disappearing fast.

In fact, I was just listening to Andrew Weaver mention that he is very concerned about the economic fall out happening in BC right now from the spec tax when fighting on BNN air over the pipe-line. Not sure if many people picked up on that side comment.

What numbers is he seeing right now in BC real estate that the public is not?

#121 iogitra on 04.22.18 at 11:37 pm

The governments giveth (Harper/Flaherty/Clark/DeJong) and the government taketh away (Horgan/Eby).
Why demonizing the latter when we know full well the real culprits.
I’ll take Horgan and Eby over any other politicians in Canada in recent past and present.
PC Ontario had my vote until Doug Ford got cozy with RE cartel and Mike Harris (Jr.). Who’s next? Hudak Minister of Finance?

#122 Hulk Horgan on 04.22.18 at 11:47 pm

Andrew Weaver and Horgan have my vote for life.

I would like to see Eby run for Prime Minister.

That snake Justin is doing dirty Christy Clark like dealings right now.

There is not a enough legal weed to hide this fact. It doesn’t matter how stoned you are. People are seeing what is going on in Canada.

#123 Nimbyism - take your pipe line and shove it on 04.22.18 at 11:52 pm

Hey Andrew Weaver.

Don’t bother taking anymore interviews on the BS news network that is BNN. These one sided bay street bs’ers don’t give fair interviews.

They only like interviewing Kevin O’leary types where that blonde hair reporter can bat her eye lashes and pretend to be a journalist.

#124 Captainsurfalot on 04.22.18 at 11:56 pm

Garth for such a smart guy you sure aim to flip flop. You screamed bubble for years, now it’s happening and you seemed perturbed about it. With all respect hot money pushed this thing and put locals into panic mode extending personal debt. BC has been a Wild West completely corrupt and lawless, without moral contempt. Short sighted and blind eye to where the dollars have come from is going to crush a lot of individuals here. But it needs to be done as we are living in a fast food city where only big box businesses thrive. Boutique and small business’ struggle to keep employees-mainly due to obscene living costs. Sometimes you need to to go through pain in order to Rehab-sorry this it what we need and B.C. needs to get back to basics. The NDP have the guts to see beyond easy $$, they realize Canada is a global joke and a cesspool internationally when it comes to crime networks. Wow what a thing to be proud of. Also NDP has no choice. International authorities are slamming Canada for being a enabler to proceeds of crime. We are the best country in the world for this. Sad.

#125 Bob Dog on 04.23.18 at 12:06 am

None of this pain and suffering would be necessary if Canadians demand the bank of Canada re instated and the private banks nationalized.

Bankers are terrorists. They have been for 2000 years

#126 Bobby on 04.23.18 at 12:35 am

When the government gets involved in the housing market, it is a good time to sit on one’s hands and just wait. But when an NDP government gets involved, brace for the worst, one thing they have no understanding of is simple economics. Who suggests their intention is to bring down the market. Duh!
As the economy unwinds, and it will quickly, BC will see first hand again why the NDP were so unceremoniously turfed out the last time they were in power. What surprises me is how quickly they are making a mess of things. Perhaps that is what happens when you have someone like the Greens propping you up.
Hopefully an election will be soon, before too much damage occurs.

#127 Proper Liberal on 04.23.18 at 12:38 am

“BC NDP’s so-called ‘Speculation Tax’ Intent”

https://proper-liberal.tumblr.com/post/172302834191/bc-ndps-so-called-speculation-tax-intent

#128 Moister Miller on 04.23.18 at 12:54 am

nice analysis

https://affordanything.com/is-renting-better-than-buying-should-i-rent-or-buy/

#129 Karma on 04.23.18 at 12:55 am

#47 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.22.18 at 6:42 pm
“I drove around Burnaby this am and then took the same route back this afternoon…..and listings have EXPLODED.
House “For Sale” signs are up on every block and multiple houses per block are for sale.
Unbelievable.
I cant remember that amount of listing signs pop up in a single day….
Panic setting in?
Lets see what May brings……”

What neighbourhoods? Burnaby is one of the most sought after parts of Metro Vancouver by non-residents. It would be interesting to see if the targets of the speculation tax are waking up to the new reality that their money isn’t “safe” in Canada.

#130 BCWally on 04.23.18 at 12:57 am

Just had to comment looking at some of the posts here tonight. There is a lot of truth to the thought that foreign money whether legal or not has driven the market to the stratosphere.
What has to be kept in mind is that the local population has agreed to these price increases and kept the party going.
We are vulnerable to the various money laundering offshore schemes in Canada as it is a safe haven in what was a free market. A regulated safe place to convert money from other jurisdictions in to real estate that can be resold later free of taxation, fully converted in to Canadian dollars in Canada away from prying eyes in the nation of origin.
It was the Canadian people, governments and banking institutions who aided and abetted this real estate culture of greed and arrogance. The foreign dollars could only maybe start this, not sustain it.
The BC NDP government? Likely to end up only part of the study material for future economic students on the financial mismanagement of an entire country by various governments over time.
The real discussion now should be the epic fallout and credit crisis that will result and whether our way of life will survive it.
If you want to experience what happens first hand in a severe recession/credit crisis, get a job in and move to a one horse industry northern town and then watch that industry close. Oh, and make sure you join the local volunteer fire department. They will need you.

#131 We're happy on 04.23.18 at 1:06 am

Good. That’s what we wanted. Are you jealous you didn’t think of this kind of plan?

#132 Karma on 04.23.18 at 1:24 am

#68 I’m stupid on 04.22.18 at 7:59 pm
“You seriously think the government will make it possible for you to buy a house in Van without destroying the economy? How? – Garth

The reason things got so screwed up in the first place is because of the collapse of interest rates. The government flooded the market with liquidity and people kept borrowing.

Now we have a big problem because most debt is Realestate related and that takes a long time to fix. Rising interest rates will cause a recession.

Raise rates and tank the economy. Don’t raise rates and import inflation with a collapsing dollar value. Damned if you do damned if you don’t. The party is over now it’s time to pay the bill!

Gradually increasing rates will not crash the economy since rates generally increase with economic growth. Capricious and politically-motivated taxation, on the other hand, is a job-killer. – Garth”

Sorry, but taxing freeloaders (i.e. satellite families and others who use Canada as place to store excess capital) won’t “crash” the economy. If they do sell in large quantities that shift the prices lower, which I don’t think they will do because they would have to move somewhere else, then there will be savings for the next buyers.

The reality is the “wealth effect” is a crock of crap, and is a pernicious economic theory. Pursuing an economy based on the “wealth effect” has never been, and never will be, a sustainable economic model. If people, millennials in particular, have recently bought homes and they eventually go underwater (which I don’t think will happen except for maybe the few people who taken on CMHC insurance) then that sucks for them. But that shouldn’t stop the BC NDP from following through with a reasonable taxation of freeloaders and reducing the attractiveness of encouraging more freeloaders from coming to BC.

Freeloaders are those people, such as satellite families, who send their kids to BC schools, use BC healthcare (if necessary), get Canadian citizenship (in time) and get BC university tuition rather than paying international rate while the family never pays a cent of provincial sales tax. Yes, they pay property tax and, yes, they pay GST and PST. But since the husband doesn’t declare their worldwide income, the family gets the benefits of living in BC without the main associated cost (provincial income tax). So they are freeloaders. And there are many thousands of them in Vancouver.

I know 4 from high school alone. I’m sure there’s 10-15 more that I don’t know about. If my high school class had 400 people and 20 of them and their parents never paid income taxes in BC, that’s a hell of a lot of subsidization by taxpayers for the benefit of people who are not poor, but just have never needed to pay tax in BC because of their unique situation.

#133 westcoastguy on 04.23.18 at 1:31 am

Watching some listings and someone out there right now no doubt has that indescribable feeling of buying and closing a house and then one week later an even better one in every way shape and form is listed for 15% less.

Isn’t there like a 37 letter German word to describe this feeling? Might be good to know … for future dinner conversations of course!

#134 westcoastguy on 04.23.18 at 1:34 am

Also everyone who visits this site has bookmarked this site right?

https://myrealtycheck.ca/

It’s a sea of red bloodshed in the streets. The trend may or may not be your friend.

#135 renter in Surrey on 04.23.18 at 2:14 am

West Vancouver. Average sales for a March over 34 years have been 77. The worst-ever March saw 40 sales – until now. Last month just 26 occurred.

—————————————————————–

In other words – in March there were sold 50 less houses than average… oh horror…

May be everybody is happily living in their dream homes and nobody wanted to sell.

Relax everybody, business as usual, interest rates are still next to zero and not going up any time soon, same with RE prices, not going to drop materially.
There are a couple of houses in Aldergrove I always come across on MLS – around 1 mil price tag, for sale for more than a year, price not dropped a penny.

Division on population had happened – first class citizens who own RE, second class who destined to rent for life.

Accept reality.

#136 renter in Surrey on 04.23.18 at 2:17 am

#125 Bob Dog on 04.23.18 at 12:06 am
None of this pain and suffering would be necessary if Canadians demand the bank of Canada re instated and the private banks nationalized.
————————————————————-
I think they did something like that in Venezuela, worked out great, right?

#137 Smoking Man on 04.23.18 at 2:22 am

The religion of home ownership is getting beat up by bible burners the communists and empty walet syndrome.

If ford is trump. That’s great news. Lets hope that ford doesent go with Bolton or Guliani.

#138 Boots on the Ground in Ptown on 04.23.18 at 2:29 am

#96 WATSON FINGERS
#102 ” ”
———————————-
GARTH! Killing me laughing over here on the “left coast but south of the border of afore mentioned stricken BC”

“Labels save words…” etc, can I steal this for a bumper sticker pls?

Side note i’m an extremely tolerant person and I know Garth is also, as I think we all know. We’re all free to read or not read this Personal Blog..which by very definition allows the writer to write as he pleases. “market killing plan” I dont know if I’m missing something, but isn’t that the point of the plan so isn’t this just reiterating a fact in a catchy way? Splitting hairs.

I admire your neverending patience in commenting Garth. Principle of the thing is never an easy argument to make about any issue, too subjective. (thinking of your take on gov intervention in this ridiculous market, which I agree is a slippery slope) I’m not saying housing isnt out of control but sadly the underlying reasons for it -aside from all the basic ones flogged here daily- is the fact too many Canadians (and Americans) don’t think for themselves and then expect the gov to “fix it”. I think there will be long term implications for where Canada is headed/has been headed due to certain mindsets that you faithfully try to set right here. True to my dual citizenship I must also include US here, just its own variety and flavor of said implications. It will be in regretful hindsight that your underlying messages will be realized too late. And I dont mean underlying messages as in, “does he mean its time to buy now” for you more literal readers out there. Meantime, Bandits getting neglected while you wade into the comment muck here!

Also I for one am baffled why so many are so confused and think Garth has crossed the tracks or something, like there were any tracks to begin with. This subject isn’t about sides, being a renter or an owner, or hoping for RE to crash or for it to boom etc. Garths about balance. (Not sure why I continue to wade the steerage section since I’m usually a tad off balance afterward actually.) I guess because the sum of the whole is fascinating. Theres no “right” way or opinion really about much of anything and I enjoy all the comments no matter how far removed from my own opin..

Take the argument for/against socialism or capitalism. Sadly its only much hindsight that shows the error of the ways in either system and lets not forget, in this example neither “system” is really to blame but like in everything else, all we can honestly really blame always goes back to the human condition.

My capitalist friends say socialists are lazy. My socialist friends say capitalists are greedy. Aren’t both of those 2 of the deadly sins… and we all were unboxed with 7 of those and lots of bubble wrap. We spend more time popping others’ bubble wrap bubbles than looking at those 7.

/diatribe

#139 Boots on the Ground in Ptown on 04.23.18 at 2:35 am

Lastly: keep on keepin on Garth.
Sign in todays photo is an analogy of the mission of your comments section, aka series of small fires.
Did you ever think you’d end up in firefighting?
Humor aside, your contribution to all things personal finance are in my mind as much of a public service as the guys climbing the red ladders

F34WA

#140 Howard on 04.23.18 at 4:13 am

Influx into Toronto rising again after declining for a couple years.

Real Estate to soar back to the 2017 highs.

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2018/04/22/immigration-to-ontario-increasing-after-prolonged-slump.html

#141 Gravy Train on 04.23.18 at 6:01 am

Oh, dear! Mark won’t like this news!

“The Consumer Price Index rose 2.3% on a year-over-year basis in March, following a 2.2% increase in February. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the Consumer Price Index was up 0.1% in March, after increasing 0.2% in February.”
https://www.statcan.gc.ca/eng/start

#142 Andre on 04.23.18 at 6:35 am

Garth

Based on the post and or comments you are pointing out that the go home taxes and spec taxes and empty home taxes ( that would affect only non taxes residents) will push RE to crash (a scenario that could push the economy into a deep recession).. at the same time you also point out that foreigner buyers and new immigrants are not the cause of reason for the insanity of the prices … I think the arguments are not coherent ( or foreigner capital has an impact on RE and the taxes will crash the prices or they don’t and these taxes will have no impact on RE)

The market moves on mass sentiment. When people felt FOMO they piled in. When they think it’s gone, sales will tumble. It’s what people believe that matters most, not what is. – Garth

#143 Ian on 04.23.18 at 6:58 am

At 5am EST the US 10 year touched 3%. Since then backed off a fraction, but this is the week the 3% yield mark gets breached. Major bond selloff.

#144 Ian on 04.23.18 at 7:06 am

#140 Gravy

Don’t worry, he’ll keep saying there’s deflation and that real estate peaked in 2013.

True inflation that people experience in everyday life is so much higher than the CPI number. It’s so flawed. Inflation will roar for the rest of the year due to the cheap money period.

#145 Gravy Train on 04.23.18 at 7:29 am

#104 Chaddywack on 04.22.18 at 10:10 pm
“My wife and I are easily in the top 1% of income….” You have a household income of over $200,000 per year? Well done. What line of work are you in?

“It’s not xenophobic to put the interests of your own citizens first….” You’re right. It’s nativist, which in turn is based on the feeling of xenophobia. Any economist (e.g., Gary Becker) will tell you that discrimination against certain segments of society leads to economic inefficiency and the mispricing and misallocation of resources. Donald Trump is the leading proponent of nativism, so you’re in good company!

#146 Khuy on 04.23.18 at 7:52 am

Do you realize you contradicted yourself?
First you said you can’t make things cheaper by taxing them. Then in the end you said first sales go down and then prices.

I said the prices of affordable homes is rising as a result of bad politics. The price of unaffordable homes is dropping, and they are still unaffordable. Lose-lose. – Garth

#147 Darryl on 04.23.18 at 8:03 am

#51 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.22.18 at 6:52 pm
@#41 Turnernation
“….. if said country is run by a communist dictator, is in the midst of a narco war, or is hopelessly corrupted….”
++++++
vacationing in BC are we?
——————————————————————-

LOL … Good one Fartz

#148 Steven Rowlandson on 04.23.18 at 8:04 am

“Socialism doesn’t work.” Who created Socialism or Marxism? The same people who created capitalism (which is the rule of monied interests) and run both for their own political and economic benefit. So when you really think about it both don’t work, both are the tactics of organized crime practised by a globalist oligarchy and both proclaim the alleged virtues of democracy providing that their people get to call the shots and determine policy. What are the basic values of such a system? Nihilism and a lust for money and power! The real estate market as we know it is an example of these values in action and it is not compatible with the best interests of society and the nation.

#149 Conspiratard on 04.23.18 at 8:05 am

The globalists pressed a climate button on Friday, and we went from winter to spring overnight.

The CN tower was “shut down due to ice hazards” all last week. (BS – nobody was hit or killed at all.)

The Don Valley Parkway was “shut down for seasonal repairs” all weekend. Completely unnecessary, all the potholes were fixed already.

Why?

Trump and Kim Jong Un were inside the CN Tower on the afternoon of 4-20, smoking doobies and signing secret deals to enrich their families. Their motorcades used the closed off DVP to shuttle in their Illuminati banker friends and then escape the city on the weekend.

Meanwhile, the media was focussed on the convenient death and funeral of Barbara Bush on the weekend. Trump was not there.

And now, a new Royal boy has just been born to join the Illuminati.

Coincidence? I think not.

I think not.

#150 NYCer on 04.23.18 at 8:10 am

Went to 3 open houses yesterday. Last one was for fun a detached on in North York originally listed for $3.3M and down to $2.9M

Sellers are very motivated said the agent and was listed earlier. She said the owner moved downtown.

Anyways my husband loved the place. Ground floor was amazing, the rest was OK. I told him if we were to spend that money, I’d rather custom build my house. Plus it’s too big for 2 people, more work for us to clean and take care of.

#151 Howard on 04.23.18 at 8:12 am

#40 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 04.22.18 at 6:17 pm

What about affordability for the average born and raised Canadian family making the average family income ? Do you even give a rat’s buttock about them ?

Not any more than the family that has chosen our nation. Like I said, tribal. – Garth
……………………

What a shameful response. You have truly lost your way…..

People are people. You are not special. – Garth

————————————-

People are people. But most countries put their own citizens’ interests at least somewhat above those of foreigners. Otherwise what is the point in having separate nation states?

People who choose to move here are foreigners no longer. The anti-Chinese sentiment (as an ethnicity, not nationality) in BC is disheartening. – Garth

#152 Howard on 04.23.18 at 8:16 am

#50 Nemesis on 04.22.18 at 6:46 pm

Pretty obvious reason why Los Angeles has such a large homeless population. Miami has a lot too.

Can you guess what it is?

#153 TurnerNation on 04.23.18 at 8:17 am

As I always say our future includes working to pay for public sector unionistas and Party Elites. Nothing more.

This will cost tax farm slave commuters another $150 each month in parking fees…just to take the transit.
So much for helping the environment. Many will stay in their cars and pay for parking at work.

Transit executives and unions will enjoy another round of raises and bonuses this year while the transit system continues imploding due to lack of capacity. See: all that “densification” underway.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ttc-line-1-free-parking-ends-1.4630431

#154 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.23.18 at 8:23 am

@#112 Flake News….again.
“I quote my brother the systems analyst……”The world is going to be so much better once all the self serving pompous know it all baby boomers are dead…..”
+++++

You’re quoting your “Big brother” who blames all the world’s ills on ……”Boomers”.

Yeesh.
As a wise man once said.
“I would love to engage in a battle of wits with you but I dont want to fight an unarmed man…”

So
Party on dude!
Roll another fatty, suck that THC deep into your lungs and hold it in……’cause it’ll make you even more paranoid ( fake news…..riiiiiiiight), hungry and lazy….

Just curious, when you smoke your way through the Boomer parents inheiritance, who will you blame then….your “rich” brother?

#155 Vader on 04.23.18 at 8:35 am

The government had to do something for the locals trying to live in the place they were raised. Also, tradesman and “Middle class” people make the city run, and when their pushed out of the market, no more services they provide. It’d be the day when we see office folks taking out the garbage and doing oil changes and repairs, looking after the sewer systems ect. It’s on the backs of these people that the city was built, now they can’t afford to live there unless enslaved to debt for their entire lives and half their firstborns. The government needs to make affordable land available for people in a certain income bracket, that’s the only way we’ll see a healthy market without a financial crises, which is already likely to happen with fuel prices going up, China buying all the extra oil and exporting nations jumping to the “Petro Yuan” and dumping the US dollar. It’s embarrassing that we live in one of the biggest countries in the world with one of the smallest populations and there’s a shortage of land available. The government took this land for free and kicked all the Natives off into reserves, now their selling it to rich people that pass it on to the surfs who end up enslaved to debt forever and passing that money up. Why are we making huge payments to britain and the “Royal” family? time to separate for real and take some free land for ourselves, especially out in BC where there’s plenty of it. The 99% need to rise up and take the country back, too bad their not hungry enough yet, but it’s coming

#156 maxx on 04.23.18 at 8:37 am

#10 Specuskeptic on 04.22.18 at 4:41 pm

“Also, to be sure, it’s clear that federal policy (0/40, low rates, etc.) for the last decade + has had the single biggest impact. Local dynamics merely iced that cake.

I for one welcome our new FBT/speculator tax overlords…. for now.”

Agree 100%. I also find this pronunciation totally beyond it:

“Our government continues to steal the equity from our houses.”

Cry me an ocean. No, two. This “equity” has largely been created by the sick-making drops in interest rates of the past 2+ decades, but most especially as you point out, 10+ years.

When I think about the “equity” that has been stolen from people’s savings over this period (very simple calculation), the last thing I feel is sympathy for greedy sellers who’ve rocked the upper hand due to official, obscene mucking with the money supply.

What we have now is a stand-off between precarious re wealth and the concomitant consumer debt shambles vs. a potential buy-side that is finally waking up to the lopsided re price growth that government and realtards have boosted like a cancer on the real economy.

This sideways trajectory the economy is (still) seeing won’t disappear until most of the little viable taxpaying units see a bit more money returned to their wallets via the restoration of the value of cash.

Cheap money = higher prices = more debt = taking more risk with investments = lost sleep = declining health = increased social problems.

Hey, that would be now.

“Our government continues to steal the equity from our houses.”

Boooooo-frickin-Hoooooooo.

#157 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.23.18 at 8:37 am

@#128 Karma
“Burnaby is one of the most sought after parts of Metro Vancouver by non-residents. ”
++++++

Really?
News to me. Links? Stats?
But then again I’ve suffered repeated exposure to the gibbering ravings of a pouting, paranoid, pot smoking, plebe ( go look all those “big brother” words up FNA).

Most of the people going in and out of the houses appeared to be locals ……. and it was the first sunny Sunday in weeks…..might have just been “lookie loos”
Tons of new listings on Sunday.
Tons.
Panic selling?
Lets see what sales numbers in May, June, July tell us.
A long hot summer awaits

#158 Bud on 04.23.18 at 8:41 am

Using the term ‘un-Canadian’ removes all credibility for whatever you had to say….

#159 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.23.18 at 8:41 am

@#148 Conspiratard

Ahahahahaha. That was awesome!

Yo! Fake News!
EVERYTHING in comment #148 is true.
Trust me.

#160 Ex-Cowtown on 04.23.18 at 8:54 am

#123 Nimbyism – take your pipe line and shove it on 04.22.18 at 11:52 pm

Hey Andrew Weaver.

Don’t bother taking anymore interviews on the BS news network that is BNN. These one sided bay street bs’ers don’t give fair interviews.

They only like interviewing Kevin O’leary types where that blonde hair reporter can bat her eye lashes and pretend to be a journalist.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Answering questions can be hard. Especially so when your answers are hypocritical, dark, xenophobic, mean, illogical and ill-informed and then someone points that out to you. It can be very triggering. I get why Weaver shouldn’t do any more interviews.

#161 fancy_pants on 04.23.18 at 9:08 am

when rates can no longer be suppressed, when inflation can no longer be contained – RE and markets will crash while the ‘basket of goods’ skyrockets. Economy is walking on an ever narrowing ledge.

And to top it off, socialism finds a way to perpetually redistribute until everyone finds the bottom of the barrel.

Thankfully Mr dressup has assured us that the budget will balance itself. And if not, we shall spend ourselves to prosperity. And if not, dope everyone up so they don’t know the difference.

kumbaya

#162 JohnnyBoy on 04.23.18 at 9:46 am

Just pulled my Harley Softail out on the weekend and the freaking rear tire was flat. Pumped the bitch up and shes still flat. Shes done. Started checking $350-$400 before the tire comes off the bike. So where do you get a replacement ire on the weekend? You don’t sigh………… Wanted to go for a ride so bad on Sunday. I had set up a ride last week to go up to your Forks of the Credit area, never been there I hear its pretty nice. My buddies came by yesterday on their bad boys just to rub it in, I ended up being my friend Kostas bitch on the back of his bike. Have to say its a nice ride along the main road and up the twisting hills. Coming back with my hog next weekend. New tires and bringing my wife.

#163 Howard on 04.23.18 at 10:00 am

#153 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.23.18 at 8:23 am

You act as if Boomers themselves never experimented with drugs.

#164 Sonny on 04.23.18 at 10:03 am

Real estate anxiety hits B.C. divorce court

High-end West Van Realtor worries family lifestyle is now unsustainable, judgment reveals

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/real-estate-anxiety-hits-b-c-divorce-court-1.4629631

#165 Howard on 04.23.18 at 10:06 am

People who choose to move here are foreigners no longer. The anti-Chinese sentiment (as an ethnicity, not nationality) in BC is disheartening. – Garth

————————————–

The FBT does not impact immigrants or permanent residents.

And part of acting in the interests of existing citizens (both native-born and immigrants) is determining the optimal number of foreigners to allow to settle. Governments across Canada have been negligent in this particular duty for decades.

Immigration has been consistent for decades at less than 1% of the population annually. The country, by the way, is mostly empty. Go and look. – Garth

#166 FarmerBrown on 04.23.18 at 10:14 am

The market hasn’t seemed to slow outside of Victoria. I’m about an hour north and sales are still robust, waitlists to build houses are in excess of two years or more. Want to get our kitchen remodeled but their was no interest in anyone even giving us a quote. And rentals? Forgedaboudit!

#167 millmech on 04.23.18 at 10:15 am

The Secret Code
House prices are already falling, my realtor in one of the Okanagan markets has told me to low ball an offer on a house for 3bdrm 1bth, said to offer 210k. I am going to wait until after the summer because if the Alberta money stays home which is the lifeblood for these economies there will be better deals in the fall.
I am hoping to get a house for around 160k in the market I am looking at, which will rent for close to 1600/mth and that is the proper price to rent metric of 1% return per month.

#168 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.23.18 at 10:21 am

@#163 Howard
“You act as if Boomers themselves never experimented with drugs.”
++++

I’m living proof Boomers experimented.

But the pot we inhaled was a pale wisp of smoke compared to the ass kicking, mind altering, THC enhanced, cheeba grown today.

Legalize it?
Ok.
Pointless to be ruining peoples lives with criminal records over a recreational habit.
Tax it rather than let the gangs get 100% profit?
OK. I also understand the govt mindset.
But to promote it like its “harmless”?
Just like booze is “harmless”?
Time will tell.
But if were going to generalize about Boomers.
Legal pot?.
Millenials don’t need another excuse to be lazy.

#169 Islander on 04.23.18 at 10:23 am

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-leaky-condo-crisis-1.4609418
Lest we forget!….this fiasco cost tax payers in BC billions and it still ain’t over!

#170 Rental Monkey on 04.23.18 at 10:34 am

It’s hard to have any sympathy for this guy. But, wow! That’s a heck of a lot child and spousal support in a dwindling market.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/real-estate-anxiety-hits-b-c-divorce-court-1.4629631

#171 IHCTD9 on 04.23.18 at 10:37 am

Probably about 14 years ago, I built myself a nice 72″ x 144″ tandem axle trailer for hauling scrap steel, and misc. trash and construction garbage to the dump. There was a lot to haul off the property back then.

It then sat for years, outside; until my BIL’s Dad passed away. It was called into regular action once more for 2 years hauling probably 40-50,000 lbs. of scrap steel and garbage off to their various destinations.

It sat again for several more years, and when I hauled it out of the weeds this spring, it finally needed some attention.

It got several new cross members, a slew of reinforcing gussets were also welded in. 1 tire needed a leak repaired. All the wood was rotted and got replaced with 3/4″ pressure treated plywood. A nice hinged 70″ x 60″ loading ramp was added. Six beefy frame mounted tie down points were welded in. New lights will soon be added once I find a deal on Kijiji.

This trailer is an IHCTD9 special. The axles, rims and tires were acquired via a trade for a case of beer. Much of the steel was used/repurposed and surplus to my old employer, and procured for pennies on the dollar. I paid full price with tax for the wood – but that’s it. All labour done by me.

This will remain my M.O. going forward in this tax happy Canadian landscape. Those who support politicians like Wynne and Trudeau with their vote, can support them also with their dollars.

#172 Heloguy on 04.23.18 at 10:42 am

#151 Howard on 04.23.18 at 8:16 am
#50 Nemesis on 04.22.18 at 6:46 pm

Pretty obvious reason why Los Angeles has such a large homeless population. Miami has a lot too.

Can you guess what it is?

Gee I don’t know. How about because you won’t freeze to death when you sleep outside.

#173 Howard on 04.23.18 at 10:44 am

#165 Howard on 04.23.18 at 10:06 am

People who choose to move here are foreigners no longer. The anti-Chinese sentiment (as an ethnicity, not nationality) in BC is disheartening. – Garth

————————————–

The FBT does not impact immigrants or permanent residents.

And part of acting in the interests of existing citizens (both native-born and immigrants) is determining the optimal number of foreigners to allow to settle. Governments across Canada have been negligent in this particular duty for decades.

Immigration has been consistent for decades at less than 1% of the population annually. The country, by the way, is mostly empty. Go and look. – Garth

————————————

Sure is. Empty of jobs too.

I would argue that a massive housing crisis in Canada’s #1 and #3 metros, together representing ~25% of the country’s population, combined with chronically stagnant wages, is reason enough to deviate from the historical norm of which you speak.

#174 Stephane Bergeron on 04.23.18 at 10:49 am

I will tell you a secret,

I don’t read the comments, but scroll down to see your replies, that conveniently appear in italics. You have replied to more in this post than usual. Always witty, I with your assessement; ‘Snowflakes’ to be ecological.

#175 Damifino on 04.23.18 at 10:53 am

#163 Howard

You act as if Boomers themselves never experimented with drugs.
—————————————

“Experimentation” sounds so cute. Most of my cohorts were full scale stoners by their late teens.

Not me, of course.

#176 Shawn Allen on 04.23.18 at 11:00 am

There is No Team Canada in Economics

Howard at 150 said:

People are people. But most countries put their own citizens’ interests at least somewhat above those of foreigners. Otherwise what is the point in having separate nation states?

***********************************
Nation States may eventually become obsolete but I believe they grew out of tribalism and were certainly necessary for defense over the years.

As far as your nation making rules to benefit you economically and protecting you from foreign economic interests, forget about it.

In economics you are on your own. If, for example, you think current home owners will accept selling to you at a lower price than foreigners will pay, dream on.

Nationalism is popular in the U.S. today. But in the great sweep of history nationalism has become less acceptable and that will continue in the long term.

Nationalism will eventually be no more acceptable than (its close cousin) racism.

Over time the standard of living and opportunities will tend to converge across the globe (eventually at far higher levels than today) and there will be less reason to fear immigration.

Some day it may be considered a basic human right to live anywhere on earth as long as you are law-abiding and self supporting. We are certainly not there yet.

I am currently visiting Amsterdam which became a great City based on its unusual level of tolerance. It certainly has some great intolerance in its history as well, but it has progressed most in times of tolerance.

On a different topic, Amsterdam is a City of about 850,000 people and probably 100,000 tourists on a given day and it has almost no single family detached houses as far as I can tell.

#177 bdwy sktrn on 04.23.18 at 11:13 am

ihctd9 – hey dozer dude check this bad boy out…
https://www.flickr.com/photos/cjb19772009/6023130441

the neighbour has an old one of these, my friend and I (the scummy RE agent) spent ALL DAY yesterday helping him with a idler alignment problem. none of us had a clue about these machines or any other dozers.
After removing the blade, we managed to get the track off and the idler wheel out to get at the busted part that carries the end of axle.
Not a small job! But we all had alot of fun doing it. Huge bolts rusted on for 50+ years. Most needed a 5′ pipe on the wrench then a 200lb guy jumping on the end of said pipe to break loose. We had to grind off a few that would not co-operate. Used a backhoe to lift off the track. No manual, no instructions, just felt our way along.
All in all a satisfying and fun day!

#178 Victor V on 04.23.18 at 11:18 am

Meet the alternative mortgage lender who’s a last resort for desperate homebuyers bigger banks won’t touch

http://business.financialpost.com/real-estate/mortgages/meet-the-alternative-mortgage-lender-whos-become-a-last-resort-for-desperate-homebuyers-bigger-banks-wont-touch

Firm Capital’s specialty is lending for terms up to 24 months, after which the borrower will ideally refinance the loan at one of the country’s big banks, or if things aren’t going well, head to another private mortgage investment corporation. Its public mortgage portfolio has an average interest rate of 8.3 per cent, compared with about 3 per cent for home loans at the big banks.

“In this liquid market, whenever there’s a problem, somebody refinances us,” he said. “You never want to be the last guy on the stick. Leave enough room to get taken out.”

#179 For those about to flop... on 04.23.18 at 11:19 am

Too big to fail…

M43BC

“The Gun Industry’s Economic Impact in One Map.”

Which region is more dependent on the gun industry for jobs, deeply conservative and rural Western states or the liberal and urban Northeast? You might be surprised to find out that the most gun-friendly states are often not the ones where the guns are actually produced. Our new map breaks down which states have the most economic dependence on the firearms industry.

We gathered data from the Firearms and Ammunition Industry Economic Impact Report from 2017 from the National Shooting Sports Foundation, an organization representing over 12,000 companies in the gun industry. The report tabulates the total jobs and average wages for workers who manufacture and sell guns in each state. We visualized these numbers on a map where the size of the state corresponds to the financial impact of the industry. We then color-coded each state to indicate the number of jobs at stake. The result is an interesting snapshot of an industry at odds with the political divide.

Let’s start by taking a look at the places where the gun industry is comparably small. Hawaii ($39M), Delaware ($40M), Rhode Island ($97M), Vermont ($0.1B)—these places only have a few hundred people making and selling firearms. It may not be surprising that the Northeast lacks a robust gun industry, but also consider places like New Mexico ($0.13B), Nevada ($0.4B) or Oklahoma ($0.51B). The gun industry just isn’t a large employer in these states, despite the fact that they have some of the lightest regulations in the country.

At the other end of the spectrum, Texas has the largest gun industry measured both in terms of economic activity ($8.83B) and jobs (23,070). That’s not surprising. But several states in the Northeast and across the Midwest have robust multi-billion-dollar gun industries as well, including many liberal places with strict gun control legislation. California ($3.64B), Minnesota ($2.43B) and Illinois ($2.18B) are not exactly known for politicians friendly with the NRA. For example, Massachusetts just had its assault weapons ban upheld. The gun industry generates $1.86B in economic activity and provides some 7,116 people with jobs in Massachusetts, the same state where Clinton beat Trump by 29 points.

Top Ten States with the Highest Economic Impact of the Gun Industry
1. Texas: $3.83B and 23,070 jobs

2. California: $3.64B and 20,610 jobs

3. Minnesota: $2.43B and 11,650 jobs

4. Florida: $2.39B and 14,850 jobs

5. Illinois: $2.18B and 10,681 jobs

6. North Carolina: $1.98B and 11,427 jobs

7. Pennsylvania: $1.94B and 12,436 jobs

8. Massachusetts: $1.86B and 7,116 jobs

9. New York: $1.84B and 8020 jobs

10. Ohio: $1.61B and 11,772 jobs

Our map indicates that the gun industry challenges the usual political divides. Texas has the largest firearms sector, but California is a very close second. This suggests that Republicans might think about a counterintuitive approach next time they campaign on the Second Amendment. If you want to promote gun-friendly legislation, just highlight the industry’s contributions to the economy.”

https://howmuch.net/articles/how-much-gun-industry-impacts-your-state

#180 Boot on the Ground in Ptown on 04.23.18 at 11:32 am

#167 millmech
The secret code
————————————————————–
Curious to know which market millmech? I recall one of you two watching Vernon? I’d like to know boots on the ground developments if it is Vernon, thanks! Especially when you’re talking offering 160k. Do you happen to also frequent Paula Pant’s affordanything.com?

Just back from Penticton a few wks ago. Summerland looks to be cashing in on Kelowna spillover. (Development advert for a bunch of houses going in near Giants Head states “outside of new taxation areas”.)Roughly comparing RE papers from last May to current it appears that it is indeed a somewhat mixed market. Comps in areas listed last yr listed this yr at or slightly above or below last yrs list prices. Higher end stuff still sitting, witness some Naramata carnage (900k+) listing 100k below last yrs list.
I’m curious to watch if Kelowna bulge keeps Penticton area afloat somewhat, however I think the end result of the anti-AB doozy will be a major headwind for the Peach City.

#181 aa5 on 04.23.18 at 11:34 am

Now the bubble dynamics work in reverse. As the price of housing falls, it reduces the equity of all the home owners in the area. Which makes them less able to withdraw home equity and use that as a down payment on another house.

Since this means there are less bidders, it means house prices fall more. Which further reduces home equity, etc.

#182 Boot on the Ground in Ptown on 04.23.18 at 11:59 am

One door down over at

http://www.thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=10411

Looks like in MA they’re taking lessons from the other “Vancouver Model” re: empty house taxes.

Not that I know what the correct answer is to these issues. But, it encroaches on property rights IMHO, thats said as a far from wealthy renter. However, that 5 trillion sloshing around the globe as mentioned above by someone, looking for a roost, (laundered and unlaundered) is the real culprit with all these “bubbles” around the world. Uncharted territory in so many ways.

#183 IHCTD9 on 04.23.18 at 12:00 pm

#161 Herb on 04.23.18 at 9:13 am

I am well aware of property tax and maintenance costs, and they certainly would not have exceeded the $24,000/year I have paid in rent, plus the cost of two completed moves and one impending.

_____

If you sold to buddy for 1 Mil, and he then averages 4.5% over the next 25 years, he’ll pay 661,000.00 total in interest.

That’s 26,440.00 per year just in interest, plus:
Taxes 3000.00 per year
Maintenance 2500.00 per year
Insurance 3500.00 per year
Much more I’m not even adding in like the inevitable reno’s and upgrades

That’s 35,440.00 per year – way more than rent, and for two and a half consecutive decades in a row. At the end, he’s into it for over 1.9 Million.

If I took that 6286.00 (minimum) the guy who bought your house is shelling out in exclusive SFD costs and invested it at 6% – I’d be at 4.3 Million – knock 600K off for 25 years of rent and I’m still at 3.7 Million.

The guy that bought your house is going to lose big money compared to investing in financials while renting – unless he can get over 6 million when he sells. That’s fine if he’s got the bank, and it’s just a place to live while he is also building bank in other ways.

I sure as hell hope you are not telling any young folks that RE in general is a good overall investment without qualifying that full on bubbly market appreciation is required just to break even.

#184 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 04.23.18 at 12:02 pm

People who choose to move here are foreigners no longer. The anti-Chinese sentiment (as an ethnicity, not nationality) in BC is disheartening. – Garth
………………………………..

We know this…And it is a shame when average first and second generation Canadian families earning an average income cannot afford to buy an average home in their own country. This racism thing is all in your own mind Garth.

Not when posters here often say, ‘I went to open houses and they were packed with foreigners,’ which is code (of course) for Asian. Vancouver society is in trouble. – Garth

#185 Big Kahuna on 04.23.18 at 12:09 pm

I gotta admit-lotsa laughs reading these comments with Garth cast in the role of Marie Antoinette-“Let them eat cake” and the outraged long suffering residents of Vancouver.

#186 Howard on 04.23.18 at 12:14 pm

#176 Shawn Allen on 04.23.18 at 11:00 am

Wow look at you, you visited the touristy bits of Amsterdam. Well done. Did you visit the no-go areas in Amsterdam, the Hague, and Rotterdam? The areas where the rule of law no longer applies? I assume not.

Probably didn’t ask any ordinary Dutch people their opinion either. You might be surprised.

I believe Trudeau’s globalist agenda will be rejected but I would never overestimate the intelligence of the Canadian voter.

#187 Howard on 04.23.18 at 12:15 pm

#172 Heloguy on 04.23.18 at 10:42 am

#151 Howard on 04.23.18 at 8:16 am
#50 Nemesis on 04.22.18 at 6:46 pm

Pretty obvious reason why Los Angeles has such a large homeless population. Miami has a lot too.

Can you guess what it is?

Gee I don’t know. How about because you won’t freeze to death when you sleep outside.

———————————-

Someone give this man a cookie.

#188 IHCTD9 on 04.23.18 at 12:24 pm

#2 Stan Brooks on 04.22.18 at 4:13 pm
Read the comments:

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/5-reasons-why-gas-prices-080000482.html

It is game over Boyz.
_________________________________

Good grief, articles like that must be written either for the dumbest of all consumers of media, or as an apologetic half-assed attempt at an excuse for why Canadians are getting hosed again on fuel costs.

Just the fact that the new carbon taxes weren’t even mentioned as a reason for increased gas prices is cause to just chuck this article in the round file, and never take anything ever written by the author again.

#189 Duke on 04.23.18 at 12:43 pm

#181 aa5 on 04.23.18 at 11:34 am
Now the bubble dynamics work in reverse. As the price of housing falls, it reduces the equity of all the home owners in the area. Which makes them less able to withdraw home equity and use that as a down payment on another house.

Since this means there are less bidders, it means house prices fall more. Which further reduces home equity, etc.

========================

That’s exactly what happens now, but many people don’e realize it.

#190 RentYVR on 04.23.18 at 12:47 pm

This is a good post (I am usually negative on your postings Garth-o so credit where it is due!)

My sense too is that the mood here in la la land has changed recently. The open house in my condo building this weekend had almost nobody which is in contrast to the huge lines (and i mean around building lines) I was seeing for similar units in the building all fall and winter. Took a walk with the family in Spanish Banks (which is in West Point Grey for those outside of YVR) and overheard an older couple discussing their surprise that no offers came on their place on the set offer date last Tuesday and that they may need to lower price to sell it. They didn’t seem distressed by this fact so it’s likely that they had set an unrealistically high price as a starting point to test the market, but to get no offers in the most desired area of the lower mainland seems somewhat telling to me.

So there appears to be an odd standoff happening. There’s little pressure on sellers as rates remain very low and the vast majority have built significantly large equity that they aren’t scared of “health” correction. And there’s little pressure on buyers as prices have stalled so the FOMO has died down. Hard to say who will win but the longer this goes on the more pressure will build on the selling side as people who are forced to sell for whatever reason (deaths, moving cities, trading up/down) potentially set lower sales comps for the next seller and so on. i’m not a perma-bear or perma-bull so i’ll enjoy watching this action for the sidelines.

#191 RentYVR on 04.23.18 at 12:48 pm

meant “healthy” correction, not “health correction!

#192 IHCTD9 on 04.23.18 at 12:59 pm

#177 bdwy sktrn on 04.23.18 at 11:13 am
ihctd9 – hey dozer dude check this bad boy out…
https://www.flickr.com/photos/cjb19772009/6023130441

the neighbour has an old one of these, my friend and I (the scummy RE agent) spent ALL DAY yesterday helping him with a idler alignment problem. none of us had a clue about these machines or any other dozers.
After removing the blade, we managed to get the track off and the idler wheel out to get at the busted part that carries the end of axle.
Not a small job! But we all had alot of fun doing it. Huge bolts rusted on for 50+ years. Most needed a 5′ pipe on the wrench then a 200lb guy jumping on the end of said pipe to break loose. We had to grind off a few that would not co-operate. Used a backhoe to lift off the track. No manual, no instructions, just felt our way along.
All in all a satisfying and fun day!
____________________________________________

Ha! – break out the 1″ drive ratchet set and various lengths of pipe! :).

That is a sweet machine – old AC HD16. I checked the specs and the bare tractor is 28,000 lbs, so if it had a full loader frame, CW, and shovel with all the other mods – it would be 53,000+ lbs! 2.5X the size of my TD9-DROTT. Spec sheet says it can pull 59,840 lbs max drawbar with the TC trans! I’ll bet it could push even more.

Unfortunately, if I brought something like this home, it would be divorce.

Working on big old iron is an education for sure. They’re simple, but everything is huge and you can’t lift or budge anything with common hand tools. Even heating up a big 3″ nut to help remove it takes forever with a std. torch!

As you found out – it pretty much takes other heavy equipment standing by to work on this stuff. I’ve also found access to a welding shop and machine shop to be very handy!

Thanks for the post!

#193 Newcomer on 04.23.18 at 1:14 pm

#78 Long-Time Lurker on 04.22.18 at 8:13 pm
#36 eightlock on 04.22.18 at 6:10 pm
We are in a full on housing crisis in BC. We do not have any more time for the market to “roll over on it’s own.”

>Why is it a housing crisis? Canada is the second largest country in the world. Move somewhere else. Envy?

#42 Newcomer on 04.22.18 at 6:29 pm
I don’t believe I’ve heard anyone say the expect a crash without a recession. Both are coming. Both will be less destructive if they happen earlier. The NDP is lancing the boil now, and it will hurt because the Libs let it fester for 20 years. That in no way means that it would be a good
idea for the NDP to let more puss accumulate.

>How is crashing the economy going to be good for BC? Businesses will shut down. People will be unemployed and leave. The housing market will return to normal but this is really just about you wanting a house.
——-

I don’t see a version where the economy does not go through a reversion to the mean. The only question is timing. I also don’t have plans to buy in Vancouver. I also don’t see a scenario where buying will beat renting in the next five years and I will be changing to part time residency before then. I no longer have a dog in this fight.

#194 The Late Jim Lahey on 04.23.18 at 1:21 pm

Hi folks. Been a few years since I commented or checked in with this blog. Since then I have gone to the great Trailer Park in the sky. I see there is talk of a real estate bubble. This has been the main theme since this blog started in 2008…. In any case, all economic bubbles end when the supply is huge and the demand falls precipitously. Since 2005, the world’s largest greenbelt surrounds the GTA. Housing demand is and will be high in the GTA due to the constant inflow of immigration. There are no vacant homes in subdivisions in the GTA like there were when the US housing bubble burst. Unless the Ontario government loosens the greenbelt there will be no spectacular housing collapse. A neighbour of mine sold his primary residence after 15 years of ownership and made 1.1 million capital gain free profit and bought a new home on gorgeous Georgian Bay at the Cobble Beach resort for half his gain. Brand spanking 3000 sq ft new home overlooking the water and on a golf course that includes free membership. 10 minute drive north of Owen Sound. Yes, he just retired.

#195 Newcomer on 04.23.18 at 1:25 pm

I have argued the market was poised to wither on its own, and thus the tax barrage is dangerous overkill.
——–

You recently argued that the market would fall by less than 40% that would be underkill. 60% is the minimum required correction to get back in line with fundamentals. There is no path forward without at least a short steep recession to allow for reallocation of resources. We could make it a long slightly shallower recession too but I don’t see hoe delaying hard work a shirking responsiblity is better for BC in the long run. The province needs productivity, not fantasy and debt.

A 60% decline will not happen. If it did, home equity would be destroyed with no move-up buyers and an economy in crisis. Such silly expectations being broadcast here. – Garth

#196 jess on 04.23.18 at 1:28 pm

islander how bout these “professionals”

more superlatives

“How a company created a whole system only to pay bribes, and how many public agents were involved. This case implicated almost one-third of Brazil’s senators and almost half of all Brazil’s governors.

“One sole company paid bribes in favour of 415 politicians and 26 political parties in Brazil. It makes the Watergate scandal look like a couple of kids playing in a sandbox.”

And the web of corruption had tentacles reaching to Africa and across the region.

The president of Peru was forced to resign last month in allegations related to Odebrecht. The vice-president of Ecuador is in prison.

Politicians and officials from 10 Latin American nations continue to fall under the Odebrecht bus.

“One sole company paid bribes in favour of 415 politicians and 26 political parties in Brazil. It makes the Watergate scandal look like a couple of kids playing in a sandbox.”

And the web of corruption had tentacles reaching to Africa and across the region.

Politicians and officials from 10 Latin American nations continue to fall under the Odebrecht bus.

The largest foreign bribery case in history’
By Linda Pressly BBC World Service

22 April 2018

Prosecutors ‘speechless’

In the case brought by the US Department of Justice, with Brazil and Switzerland in December 2016, Odebrecht and its petrochemical subsidiary, Braskem, admitted bribery to the tune of $788m (£553m) and agreed a record-breaking fine of at least $3.5bn.

The construction giant paid off politicians, political parties, officials of state-owned enterprises, lawyers, bankers and fixers to secure lucrative contracts in Brazil and abroad.

===========================

The transactions The Globe uncovered were made possible by B.C. solicitors who registered mortgages and filed court claims on the lenders’ behalf. The federal government says it is now working on new rules to make that more difficult.

Lawyers currently don’t have to report suspicious transactions to FinTRAC, the federal agency that monitors money laundering, because law societies fought that requirement in the Supreme Court of Canada and won.

https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=962c55c5-aa73-4093-b61a-4f8ac08a6536

#197 jess on 04.23.18 at 1:45 pm

don’t be blaming “socialists” this is the avaricionist party

Sleaze machine

This was organised crime – highly organised crime. All financial activity was systematised using two parallel, bespoke computer systems.

The police chief is anticipating more arrests in the Odebrecht case, especially once technicians have cracked Mywebday. So why is that so complicated?

“On Marcelo Odebrecht’s cellphone, we found information that there were orders to destroy evidence, to clean up devices,” says prosecutor Deltan Dallagnol.

“It seems the devices that contained the files that could open the system were destroyed. We tried to rebuild the system in different ways.

“We asked the FBI for help. It turned out we’d need a lot of computers doing only this for more than 100 years in order for us to have a lucky strike.”

But Fabio Salvador, the technical manager for the federal police, is optimistic. His team had a breakthrough in late February.

“This is a great fight for criminal expertise in Brazil,” he says. “And we’re going to win.”

#198 NEVER GIVE UP on 04.23.18 at 1:49 pm

I remember arriving in Vancouver from several years in Hong Kong in 1983. No internet and not much information kept me in the dark as I searched for property. The one thing I noted was the incredible amount of inventory. Every road and every street had for sale signs planted all over the place.

People will soon learn what that is like.
Even as late a 2008 I noted a lot of properties dropped prices very rapidly. Lots of inventory. Low sales.

Get ready for much of the same healthy correction to the markets.

I don’t know why Garth complains about the NDP here in BC. We all agree prices are out of control at about 12 x earnings or more.

How is it wrong for them to slow down the money laundering, the rapid flipping of un-built properties?

I think they are on the right track.

Sure it will hurt some and help others.

The ones who it will help have been abused in this market. The people who live here.

Naïve. Nobody is helped when the entire economy deflates. – Garth

#199 Mattl on 04.23.18 at 2:06 pm

Since 2011 a balanced portfolio has averaged just over 7%. Most housing markets have not matched that, two being the exception. Anyway, hindsight is useless so get over it. You made a decision. Live with it and enjoy your days. – Garth

Those two markets are the largest in Canada and represent a signifcant portion of the population. Your blog is also heavily focused on those markets. And 7% is great (net of fees?) but when you account for leverage, tax free gains and the not insignificant fact that you can actually live in a home, RE has crushed a balanced portfolio.

Personally we started with 22k down in 2008, have never paid more the the cost of comparable rent including prop taxes and pulled over 350k out of our house sale in 2017. Maintenance is a real thing but for us has been minimal.

Balanced ports are great when you already have money – we moved money from RE to balanced – but its very hard to build a lot of wealth on 7 percent returns unless you start investing when you are 12, or have very high income. Anyone that sold – or held of on buying – in the GTA or YVR in. 2011 or 12 left a fortune tax free on the table.

Like I said, hindsight is useless. BTW Van is not the second biggest housing market in Canada. Just the flakiest. – Garth

#200 AGuyInVancouver on 04.23.18 at 2:15 pm

#62 Everythingisterrible on 04.22.18 at 7:40 pm
Not any more than the family that has chosen our nation. Like I said, tribal. – Garth

Yah why care more about your fellow countrymen’s quality of life, you have no more duty or obligation to fellow citizens then you do to a rich foreigner who is looking for a safe investment to park a couple million dollars incase his home country government shifts back to its more aggressive communist policies.
What a disheartening statement.

The vast majority of people coming here are not wealthy and don’t buy $2 million houses. Exaggeration negates your argument. – Garth
_ _ _
So Garth, who bought all those $2 million houses in YVR, that were worth $800k just 10 years ago? Poloz the Timid’s interest rates will only get you so far with the bank.

It doesn’t matter that the “vast majority” aren’t wealthy. If just 15% of them are, and just 2% of that are active laundering money you’ve got a big housing problem.

#201 Zapstrap on 04.23.18 at 2:25 pm

#195 The Late Jim Lahey on 04.23.18 at 1:21 pm
Hi folks. Been a few years since I commented or checked in with this blog.

RIP Jim. We loved ya. No better drunk than you. Say hello to Philadelphia Phil Collins for us. Loved him too.

#202 Van City Man on 04.23.18 at 2:31 pm

Um, Toronto is a bubble because it’s a Canadian city at the end of the day. Vancouver is not. It is truly a Pacific Rim city. It is still booming, the boom is just in condos now not SFHs since the condos are the wave of the future (and even the houses are down only a little bit so most people did great).

I have a relative who bought a condo for $1.7 million in late 2015 after downsizing from the North Shore – that condo would easily fetch a minimum of $2.6 million, maybe even $3 million now. That’s what a 50-75% increase in 2 years? Sounds like it did far, far better than a “balanced portfolio.”

#203 Yorkville Renter on 04.23.18 at 2:31 pm

inside the CN Tower … smoking doobies

many moons ago I did exactly this at a work Christmas party on the observation deck above the restaurant… good times

#204 mike from mtl on 04.23.18 at 2:48 pm

In related news, latest is NO BoC in May.

Source? – Garth

#205 Blacksheep on 04.23.18 at 2:49 pm

New # 196,

Garth:

“I have argued the market was poised to wither on its own, and thus the tax barrage is dangerous overkill.”
——–
New:

“You recently argued that the market would fall by less than 40% that would be underkill. 60% is the minimum required correction to get back in line with fundamentals.”
——————————-
Do you think Horgan is too stupid to recognize the very real dangers to the BC economy, Garth is warning of?

Do you believe Horgan has the stomach, to watch the RE markets crash, 40%, forget a 60% correction ?

Here is what I think is the real, ‘behind the doors’ NDP action plan:

1) Achieve some quantifiable downward movement in Van RE prices (already occurring in Van)

2) Reduce money laundering (on it)

3) Tighten up rentals men regulations (on it)

4) Provide some new, low cost housing (on it)

5) All punitive measures / taxes, can be adjusted / rescinded, at any point to control the outcome.

Horgan and the NDP can and will claim victory by doing what they promised while running for office, yet still avoid alienating the 70% of the population that already owns RE.

Remember, first and foremost, Horgan’s a politician whose staying in power, means keeping the largest % of the voting populace happy. Unemployed voters, are not happy voters, regardless how cheap housing gets.

The last thing Horgan wants, is to take a strong economy under Clark (even if corrupt) and just plain kill it, confirming all the dire warnings from NDP naysayers and once again, eliminate the chance of an NDP government in BC for another generation.

This all seems so obvious, I don’t know why many can’t see what’s happening…

#206 Fake News Again on 04.23.18 at 2:50 pm

crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.23.18 at 8:23 am
@#112 Flake News….again.
“I quote my brother the systems analyst……”The world is going to be so much better once all the self serving pompous know it all baby boomers are dead…..”
+++++

You’re quoting your “Big brother” who blames all the world’s ills on ……”Boomers”.

Yeesh.
As a wise man once said.
“I would love to engage in a battle of wits with you but I dont want to fight an unarmed man…”

So
Party on dude!
Roll another fatty, suck that THC deep into your lungs and hold it in……’cause it’ll make you even more paranoid ( fake news…..riiiiiiiight), hungry and lazy….

Just curious, when you smoke your way through the Boomer parents inheiritance, who will you blame then….your “rich” brother?

_______

I rest my case. Yeah so…..its 2018….no one “smokes weed” anymore. Its eaten or vaped. The technologies for weed are as good or better than booze. So….easy on the home brew wine for you………

#207 Mattl on 04.23.18 at 2:52 pm

Like I said, hindsight is useless. BTW Van is not the second biggest housing market in Canada. Just the flakiest. – Garth

Agree on that, we are RE bears and did well but left a lot on the table by being cautious. Don’t lose any sleep over it. Never though of blaming anyone for our choices.

Van may not be the second biggest market but the Lower Mainland and Fraser Valley comined plus the GTA represent a big portion on Canadian RE. The problem with unafordability extends from West Van to Mission these days. And those far out markets are going to get annihilated when Van finally turns.

#208 jess on 04.23.18 at 2:56 pm

A collaboration of 18 news organisations, including the Guardian, Reuters and the New York Times, has been researching Pilatus. Led by France’s Forbidden Stories, the Daphne Project was created to continue the investigations of Daphne Caruana Galizia, who was killed by a car bomb in October.

why are the secrecy?

Azeri ruling families linked to secret investments via Maltese bank

President’s children among alleged beneficiaries of multimillion-pound global investments by networks of companies

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/23/azerbaijan-ruling-families-linked-to-secret-investments-via-maltese-bank

#209 Fake News Again on 04.23.18 at 2:57 pm

NEVER GIVE UP on 04.23.18 at 1:49 pm
I remember arriving in Vancouver from several years in Hong Kong in 1983. No internet and not much information kept me in the dark as I searched for property. The one thing I noted was the incredible amount of inventory. Every road and every street had for sale signs planted all over the place.

People will soon learn what that is like.
Even as late a 2008 I noted a lot of properties dropped prices very rapidly. Lots of inventory. Low sales.

Get ready for much of the same healthy correction to the markets.

I don’t know why Garth complains about the NDP here in BC. We all agree prices are out of control at about 12 x earnings or more.

How is it wrong for them to slow down the money laundering, the rapid flipping of un-built properties?

I think they are on the right track.

Sure it will hurt some and help others.

The ones who it will help have been abused in this market. The people who live here.

Naïve. Nobody is helped when the entire economy deflates. – Garth

_____

EVERYONE is leaving Vancouver. How do overpriced foreign owned houses HELP locals? Assuming you post this tough question.

#210 Smoking Man on 04.23.18 at 3:08 pm

It was a matter of when. Not if.

T2 is finished now.

#211 mike from mtl on 04.23.18 at 3:22 pm

#205 mike from mtl on 04.23.18 at 2:48 pm

In related news, latest is NO BoC in May.

Source? – Garth

///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

“..The implied odds in the OIS market of a May 30 hike have fallen to 35% from nearly 50% last week.

Poloz was also attempting to add a more nuanced view to the path of inflation. He highlighted that temporary factors were going to push Canadian inflation higher over the next few months. He said that won’t be a reason to hike.

At the same time, he sees a period of higher-than-2% inflation as beneficial because that could help anchor expectations for consumers…”

https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/usdcad-rises-to-the-highest-since-april-4-in-fourth-day-of-gains-20180423

#212 Stan Brooks on 04.23.18 at 3:27 pm

A lair is a lair

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RqgWDgS8PjY

#213 Ian on 04.23.18 at 3:29 pm

Holy short squeeze on the USD today wowzers

https://www.theice.com/products/194/US-Dollar-Index-Futures/data

#214 empty on 04.23.18 at 3:41 pm

Sure, empty home tax revenue is pretty small.
$30M is peanuts, it buys you just a single Point Grey mansion.

However! the more important effect: abandoned homes get inhabitants.

On my block, a home has been empty since I moved into the neighbourhood 5 yrs ago.

Now, people are cleaning up the dump and are moving in.
I worry for their health though: 10% of the mass in that house must be mould by now.

http://www.570news.com/2018/04/23/vancouver-to-rake-in-30-million-in-empty-homes-tax-in-first-year/

#215 B20 Moaning on 04.23.18 at 3:48 pm

The narrative that the ‘market has turned’ or would have ‘turned on its own’ is getting so tired.

The notion that the market will collapse under its own weight has been paraded here for years, all the while the extreme disconnect from local incomes and astronomical prices remains in effect. Its 2018 – after years of this message, and a series of failed federal and provincial measures to cool the market, prices remain in nose bleed territory.

https://betterdwelling.com/city/vancouver/vancouver-detached-real-estate-sees-worst-q1-sales-in-over-27-years-prices-still-climb/

Why bemoan a series of provincial measures to reduce housing prices when for the last decade its has been pointed out on this blog that houses are overvalued?

After a decade’s of warnings that prices are too high – and destructive to people’s finances as well as the social fabric – and we are supposed to be concerned about a few taxes that will drop prices 10-30% after prices have risen 300%

Even in a ‘natural correction’ where the market roles over on itself, there will be losers and winners – just as there will be in ‘engineered correction.’ What is the social and economic difference if one is natural and one is engineered if the consequence are the same – lost equity, a loss of some construction and FIRE sector jobs, and spillover effect in the economy.

Of course, the argument still stands that the rise in prices was an engineered event though CHMC insurance underwriting the bank’s cheap credit, lax tax enforcement on principle residences and undeclared rental income, extended amortization periods, and a blatant unwillingness to change course despite the ever rising chorus of an ‘affordability crisis.’

#216 Musty Basement Dweller on 04.23.18 at 4:01 pm

$30 mil is not a bad result for the first year. Especially considering they are quite sure there are still a lot of people trying to lie about their places being empty .. It’s only a start
but government intervention is clearly working.
http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/vancouver-to-announce-results-of-empty-homes-tax-on-monday-morning

#217 conan on 04.23.18 at 4:07 pm

I feel like I have just been punched in the head. This terror attack in Toronto infuriates me.

#211 Smoking Man on 04.23.18 at 3:08 pm
“It was a matter of when. Not if.

T2 is finished now.”

And we rush back to a Harper type Government?
Nay on that.
T2 will get more popular.

#218 jess on 04.23.18 at 4:13 pm

armenia

Sargsyan issued a stark mea culpa on Monday. “I was wrong,” he said in a statement on his government’s website. And he resigned.

Residents of the capital, Yerevan, poured out on the streets to celebrate. “The street movement is against my tenure. I am fulfilling your demand,” his statement said.

Hundreds of uniformed soldiers had joined anti-government demonstrators earlier on Monday in the 11th consecutive day of protests.

The demonstrations were sparked by Sargsyan’s decision to take on the post of prime minister after serving for more than a decade as the country’s president, provoking anger among opposition parties and other protest groups.

The decision came as his second term as president came to an end, and shortly after the constitution was amended to give more power to the prime minister and transform the presidency into a ceremonial role.

#219 Moister Miller on 04.23.18 at 4:28 pm

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/23/bond-king-gundlach-says-closing-above-3-percent-on-10-year-yield-will-spark-even-higher-rates.html

So rates are heading up faster than anticipated.

#220 Smoking Man on 04.23.18 at 4:38 pm

218 conan on 04.23.18 at 4:07 pm
I feel like I have just been punched in the head. This terror attack in Toronto infuriates me.

#211 Smoking Man on 04.23.18 at 3:08 pm
“It was a matter of when. Not if.

T2 is finished now.”

And we rush back to a Harper type Government?
Nay on that.
T2 will get more popular.
….

T2s mind is with unicorns and fairys. He has the mind of a child. All his huggs and kiss expetment is an epic fail.

I for one am not surprised. We need imagination but vet them. There crazy people in the world.

Heart goes out to the families. Damn. Sad.
It’s all over the news wire her in SoCal

#221 Howard on 04.23.18 at 4:46 pm

#218 conan on 04.23.18 at 4:07 pm
I feel like I have just been punched in the head. This terror attack in Toronto infuriates me.

#211 Smoking Man on 04.23.18 at 3:08 pm
“It was a matter of when. Not if.

T2 is finished now.”

And we rush back to a Harper type Government?
Nay on that.
T2 will get more popular.

————————————————

Diversity is our strength, right conan?

Btw T2 is less popular at this stage of his term than Harper was.

#222 jess on 04.23.18 at 4:48 pm

“The 2018 St. Patrick’s Day cost to the city, WRPS [Waterloo Regional Police Service], Waterloo Fire Rescue, Region of Waterloo Paramedic Services, Wilfrid Laurier University and University of Waterloo was a combined $713,500,” the City of Waterloo reported in a document released Friday.

The breakdown noted in the release:

$330,000 for policing
$62,500 for the City of Waterloo
$120,000 for regional paramedic services
$191,000 for Wilfrid Laurier University
$10,000 for the University of Waterloo

and the benefit to the community?

#223 jess on 04.23.18 at 4:52 pm

This appeal, your honour, is about two multinationals, two Canadian multinationals, who are parking their surplus cash offshore in a Loblaws-controlled foreign affiliate to avoid paying Canadian tax on investment income,” government lawyer Elizabeth Chasson, arguing for the CRA, said in court Monday morning.

The government contends that the Barbados subsidiary, Glenhuron Bank, got its seed money from “the diversion” of more than $470 million US from two sources: a Loblaws unit in the Netherlands and the sale of the Loblaws-Weston grocery business in the U.S.

The Crown alleges Loblaws dressed up Glenhuron to look like an actual Barbados-based bank so it could invest those proceeds and enjoy tax exemptions on the profits under the Income Tax Act, while in reality it was just a regular offshore company.

“If the appellant had made these investments in Canada, the profits would have been subject to Canadian tax. If the appellant had left the money in its Netherlands subsidiary, it would have been subject to Canadian tax,” Chasson argued.

“If the appellant had left the money in the U.S. when it sold its grocery business, and just left that surplus cash in the U.S., to earn investment income, it would have been [taxed]. All the appellant has done is take that surplus cash to move it to” Barbados, she said.

#224 Stan Brooks on 04.23.18 at 4:52 pm

I used to drink my coffee there

https://www.cp24.com/video?clipId=373266

#225 Ebony on 04.23.18 at 6:48 pm

This is one of the most open countries on Earth with one of the most accepting populations of newcomers and one the highest per capita immigration rates in the developed world. Canadians are not a “xenophobic” society.
Whether you agree with the laws, your dismissal of the other side as xenophobes is lazy and disrespectful.

#226 IKnow on 04.23.18 at 9:12 pm

#118 Dolce Vita on 04.22.18 at 11:17 pm
YVR RE will become a mess this year and in the next couple of years as large swaths of RE wealth are wiped out.

——-

What’s your justification?
People said the same since 10 years ago, wise to be muted about YVR house prices.