Oh Canada?!

RYAN  By Guest Blogger Ryan Lewenza

What’s the deal with the TSX? With the improving Canadian and global economy, rebounding corporate profits and higher commodity prices, you would think the TSX should be doing a lot better than the -5% YTD return and the 6.7% average total return over the last five years. The conditions are there for the TSX to be crushing it instead the TSX is greatly lagging the US and many other global markets. What gives?

I believe it’s all about the macro right now rather than the fundamentals, which are actually quite solid. I think global investors are avoiding Canadian stocks, despite typically positive conditions, given macro concerns like the NAFTA negotiations, our inflated housing market, and our ineffective leaders who are dragging their feet on major pro-growth projects like the much needed BC pipeline.

This can be seen in foreign investor flows, with foreign investment in Canadian assets declining materially over the last two years, from roughly $70 billion in 2013-2015 to just $40 billion in the last two years.

Annual Foreign Investment in Canada

Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments

Another great chart that further illustrates this underperformance is to compare TSX returns relative to the world, with emerging market equity relative performance. Essentially, investing in the TSX is the same as investing in EM equities as they are plays on stronger global growth, a weaker US dollar, and higher commodity prices. Below I capture the high correlation between these two markets (relative to global equities). Note how they have closely tracked each other for years, but noticeably, have diverged recently with EM greatly outperforming the TSX over the last year. For example, EM equities were up 30% in 2017, far better than the TSX, which was up only 9%. Why is this happening?

TSX and EM Equities Relative Performance

Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments

I believe it’s a mix of internal and external forces that is causing this TSX underperformance. Specifically, I believe the ongoing NAFTA negotiations (external event) and the anti-global trade sentiment emanating from 1600 Pennsylvania Ave are causing investors to look elsewhere for their commodity exposure. Note how the divergence with EM equities started in early 2017 when Trump took over as Commander-in-Chief. Investors are connecting the dots that if President Trump rips up NAFTA then Canada’s going to clearly be impacted from this given our high reliance on trade with the US.

But it’s not just NAFTA. I believe our own internal dysfunction and misplaced government priorities are weighing on our economy and markets. Here I’m talking about the current anti-business, misdirected pro-spending policies coming from the provincial and federal governments.

In BC, the NDP government is trying to torpedo the housing market, blow up the Kinder Morgan Trans Mountain pipeline expansion, and only reluctantly approved the massive Site C Dam project. Our Federal government is dragging its heels on much needed infrastructure, is not pushing hard enough on the BC pipeline expansion, while our PM seems more preoccupied with photo-ops and wearing the most fashionable Indian garb while on unproductive state visits. And don’t even get me started on Kathleen Wynne and her blatant attempt to buy votes in the upcoming Ontario provincial election.

For me the BC pipeline is emblematic of everything wrong with our current leaders and their priorities. This is a layup and they can’t even get this one right. Global oil demand is close to hitting a new all-time high of a 100 million bls/day in 2018, while Canada ranks third in the world for oil reserves.

So we know there’s lots of demand for our oil, but due to our dysfunction and lack of leadership, we’re failing to ship this oil to new markets. And this has major consequences for our economy, as perfectly captured in the massive discount of our oil price (Western Canadian Select) to US (West Texas Intermediate) and global (Brent). Below I show this discount, which currently sits near a record high of US$25/bbl relative to WTI. Yes we have to consider the environmental consequences and try to minimize the effects of drilling and exporting oil & gas, but this shouldn’t take precedence over jobs, economic prosperity and progress!

Canadian Oil Price Trading At a Huge Discount

Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments

So there you have it. The TSX can and should be doing better, but it’s going to require our leaders to get to work and resolve some of these major impediments to economic growth.

Thankfully we’re hearing great progress is being made on NAFTA with some speculating a deal is just a month or two away. Let’s get this resolved and then have our leaders zero-in on the BC pipeline and many other needed infrastructure projects which will help stimulate economic growth, increase productivity, and help address our lagging stock market.

Ryan Lewenza, CFA,CMT is a Partner and Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments, and a Senior Vice President, Private Client Group, of Raymond James Ltd.

 

135 comments ↓

#1 The Greater Cauliflower on 03.30.18 at 4:28 pm

Today’s Stock Market Report:
Helium was up, feathers were down.
Paper was stationery.
Fluorescent tubing was dimmed in light trading.
Knives were up sharply.
Cows steered into a bull market.
Pencils lost a few points.
Hiking equipment was trailing.
Elevators rose, while escalators continued their slow decline.
Weights were up in heavy trading.
Light switches were off.
Mining equipment hit rock bottom.
Diapers remained unchanged.
Shipping lines stayed at an even keel.
The market for raisins dried up.
Coca Cola fizzled.
Caterpillar stock inched up a bit.
The Sun peaked at midday.
Balloon prices were inflated.
Scott Tissue touched a new bottom.
And batteries exploded in an attempt to recharge the market.

#2 Penny Henny on 03.30.18 at 4:30 pm

I know it feels like a Saturday but it’s not!

#3 Penny Henny on 03.30.18 at 4:39 pm

And don’t even get me started on Kathleen Wynne and her blatant attempt to buy votes in the upcoming Ontario provincial election.-Ryan

////////////////

It’s about doing what’s right. Ha, ha, ha

#4 Shawn on 03.30.18 at 4:46 pm

Informative post, as per usual Ryan.

I for one am a big fan of renewable energy and think the future is looking brighter in terms of the gradual shift to those alternatives.

However it is 2018 and the world runs on oil, it’s simply not fair that a province can hold a nation’s resources hostage.

What are you thoughts on the cancelled Energy East pipeline? Would that have been a boom for the provinces involved or a money pit?

#5 waiting on the westcoast on 03.30.18 at 5:04 pm

Another great article and demonstrates that while government is rarely responsible for the current economic position a country is in, it has massive influence and signaling to global investors on where they are taking the country to.

We are heading to morning sessions of cartoons, the friendly giant and Mr. DressUp.

Pablum in, pablum out!

#6 Camille on 03.30.18 at 5:05 pm

Hi. I agree with your analysis. In addition, would you buy Canadian equities if you expected the currency to depreciate? I do not have the information, but expect this may be part of the reason, as additional background to Ryan’s explanations (though I am not so bold to picky back his analysis).
Funny though, how everyone dislikes President Trump, until it hits them in the pocket book. He is very much trying to free us from the socialist agenda, though I’m not sure he will succeed.

#7 THe Answer on 03.30.18 at 5:07 pm

The answer is simple logic and critical analysis of the situation because we have no political leaders. Instead we have a circus filled with clowns, and the whole world is laughing at these actors on stage.

#8 TurnerNation on 03.30.18 at 5:08 pm

Richer than we think. The trend us up:

Toronto the Good? No longer. We’re like Van now with an interolerable presence of a small army of professional street beggers. Never before seen it this bad.

They’ve staked out every downtown corner on King St. – from Yonge St out to Bathurst (I was asked 2x last night); sitting outside every downtown Liquor store, Tim Hortons and Keg. Asking outside Yonge St. subway entrances up to Bloor. Sitting in the underground PATH between buildings and out of sight of cameras.
Took Queen St streetcar the other week , was asked both ways – made mistake of stopping to check my phone. Keep moving @ all times! They also stalk every stop light along Lakeshore Blvd – asking lines of stopped cars. Driving, even offers little relief.

Nothing is done. Our law and order types – Toronto police, parking and transit enforcement – have a very visible presence downtown: writing law abiding, working tax paying people endless traffic and personal tickets. You see, the cost of their salaries, gold plated benefits, and overtimes (100-250k per year per head) must be funded…by us.

As mentioned Ontariowe exists for only one reason: to fund the lifestyles of elite public ‘non-servants’ and of the Crown Corps and the public unions members.
(Of course bankers take their cut – as we drown in bond interest.)

The news picked up on it last week though I’ve not seen this ilk myself:
http://toronto.citynews.ca/2018/03/26/panhandlers-calling-themselves-refugees-appear-on-gta-streets/

The insanity of the Left: http://toronto.citynews.ca/2018/03/28/community-pushes-back-displacement-homeless-man/

#9 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 03.30.18 at 5:13 pm

It is a little bit funny, people in B.C. pissing and moaning about energy costs, the high cost of gasoline and electricity and natural gas, but nobody wants pipelines or hydroelectric dams that deliver the energy more cheaply and abundantly. People can’t seem to make the connection. I think half of us are brain dead.

#10 dakkie on 03.30.18 at 5:24 pm

DELETED

#11 AB Boxster on 03.30.18 at 5:25 pm

#4 Shawn on 03.30.18 at 4:46 pm


What are you thoughts on the cancelled Energy East pipeline? Would that have been a boom for the provinces involved or a money pit?

—————————

How could a pipeline that was fully funded by private enterprise, and used to sell Canadian product from one part of Canada to another part of Canada, (ie. oil from Alberta to Eastern refineries) and which would have diplaced higher priced oil currently imported to eastern Canada from foreign countries, ever be considered a money pit for the provinces?

Seeing that no level of government ever would have invested a cent in the building of the pipeline?

#12 Mark on 03.30.18 at 5:27 pm

Canadians are obsessed with RE. The TSX has been left for dead. However, as people are disabused of RE being a viable retirement asset, look for the TSX to come back with a vengeance.

Just a quick scan of message boards indicates that TSX sentiment is extremely poor. Canadians dissing Canada, completely concocted stuff being made up about deficits and the current sitting government, etc. Delusion about the future prospects of the USA including the S&P500 index. Etc. Some of such nonsense even infects the comments here on a daily basis, including a few very vocal posters who think the CAD$ is on its way to $0.50.

At this point, a TSX overweight seems wise. Dividend yields relative to long-term CAD$ debt have never been so attractive. And it is well known that the TSX outperforms in a rising long-term interest rate environment which appears to be what we’re facing globally after decades of the opposite that led to obvious TSE/TSX underperformance. The precious metals mining sector is a sleeping giant on the precipice of breaking out into a multi-decade bull run. The next few decades probably will be very fun for Canada, but people who have invested their entire wad in RE won’t be having the funnest of times and will be left in the dust.

#13 CEO Canadian Millenial on 03.30.18 at 5:39 pm

Where do you see oil and the Loonie in six months from now and 1-3 year outlook from now?

#14 Mattie Delruth on 03.30.18 at 5:53 pm

If Doug Ford gets elected, then back up the Truck on the TSX. If Kathleen Wynne gets in, then the ice we are skating on becomes ever thin. If Jason Kenney gets in, then John Horgan might lose a bit of sleep. And If Scheer gets in we’re in the clear! And if it’s Trudeau oh I don’t wanna know!

#15 Lower mainland sucks on 03.30.18 at 6:05 pm

We can blame all the people in lower mainland that voted for ndp, Horgan wasn’t even voted in so he’s a fake premier. Okanagan, interior cariboo and Northern bc All voted liberal. Bc is a joke right now. Time for our dress up pm to get his head out …. and build it. Pm of Alberta should cut off the oil to bc ASAP. Then will see if anything happens

#16 AK on 03.30.18 at 6:05 pm

“This can be seen in foreign investor flows, with foreign investment in Canadian assets declining materially over the last two years, from roughly $70 billion in 2013-2015 to just $40 billion in the last two years.”
——————————————————————–
Unfortunately, this trend will continue until The Liberals get the boot in 2019.

#17 Jungle on 03.30.18 at 6:13 pm

Great post Ryan. The tsx sure is a dog on its leash (USA)
And,I wouldn’t bet on our current gov providing priority of economic prosparity vs socialism paid by debt and going after the rich for a “fair middle class”

#18 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.30.18 at 6:17 pm

Canadian oil prices are in the basement and Vancouver pays the highest gas prices in North America…….

$1.54.9 per litre today

Thank the NDP/Lib carbon taxes. – Garth

#19 Axehead on 03.30.18 at 6:23 pm

Nice pic Ryan. SIL is a Mountie so sent him the link. Great insight regarding Mr. Dressup and BC red premier.

#20 Robert on 03.30.18 at 6:31 pm

BC can support responsible economic development, but the TarSands dilbit pipeline project sends all the environmental risks downstream into BC with relatively little return or support to BC taxpayers. Who is responsible for cleanup and restoration if and when the pipelines rupture? (Remember it’s a two way line, with solvent flowing east and dilbit flowing west through our steep mountain passes) On the coast foreign tanker traffic will be quintupled, increasing the risk of collision and spill. The Gulf of Georgia is one of the most ecologically productive basins in the world; a major tar spill will be a disaster with long term consequences. “Cleanup” requires applications of massive amounts of toxic dispersants on the tar oil that threaten the survival of that ecosystem. BC is not holding the Tar Sands for ransom, we are asking our neighbours to consider the risks they are demanding we undertake on their behalf. All the money in the world is useless if we’ve poisoned the world we live in.

#21 Madcat on 03.30.18 at 6:32 pm

“Yes we have to consider the environmental consequences and try to minimize the effects of drilling and exporting oil & gas, but this shouldn’t take precedence over jobs, economic prosperity and progress!”

This is exactly the kind of thinking that will destroy our planet for future generations. It is time to change our way of life to better our planet. Some of our fellow human beings may have to be subject to poverty while our economy transitions.

Humans could live in a utopia if we reduce our population by 90% and develop our robot work force…

#22 Windsor guy on 03.30.18 at 6:33 pm

Thanks Ryan for todays post….does any of the events happening in Canada right now change your view on on the amount of Canada we should be holding in our portfolios?

#23 Brent on 03.30.18 at 6:55 pm

Tar sands bitumen is worth less than oil because it is an inferior toxic product that is more expensive to refine, transport, and dig up out of the ground.

Is anyone counting the cost of fires, floods and storms caused by climate change?

Who will pay to clean up the toxic tar sands tailing ponds?

Who will pay if there is a spill off the left coast.

Why is Alberta broke after decades of digging up bitumen?

Who really profits from the Kinder Morgan (formally Enron) pipeline expansion?

#24 Barb on 03.30.18 at 7:01 pm

Sorry the following is so long…couldn’t find the original link.

Excellent comments from Fort St. John’s mayor, Lori Ackerman:

“Dear British Columbia Citizens,
That is not a current headline but it could be. What would happen to our economy if it was? I would like to talk to you about energy, pipelines and our natural resources. I am a mum and a grandma and I have lived in the north all my life.

I am also the Mayor of Fort St. John – right smack in the middle of one of the world’s largest supplies of oil and gas. I live in a region surrounded by pipelines, wells, hydraulic fracturing (fracking) sites and canola and wheat fields. I have eaten the food we grow here and I drink our water. I understand what it takes to extract our natural resources and what it takes to protect our environment. I live it.

I don’t want to try to convince you of anything but I would like to share with you what I know to be true. I strongly encourage you to do some of your own research. Learn more than what you read in a tweet or a Facebook post.

Where does the petroleum we all use every day come from? Canada has some of the largest petroleum resources in the world and yet Canada imports 634,000 barrels of crude oil from foreign countries every single day. That is $26 BILLION of oil imports every year that we could have supplied to ourselves. That product arrives in tankers and is transported to where it needs to go by truck and train right through our communities. And yet we don’t want our own product to flow in pipelines to our communities for our own use or to our ports so we can export it? That just makes no sense at all to me.

So let’s talk about pipelines. I know pipelines are a safe, cost-efficient means of oil and natural gas transportation and emit fewer greenhouse gases than alternate transportation methods. Canada has 830,000 kilometers of pipelines. Three million barrels of crude oil is transported safely every single day.

B.C. has over 43,000 kilometers of pipelines. If we took that oil out of the pipelines, we would need 4,200 rail cars to move it. How many of those cars would you like rolling through your community? Between 2002 and 2015, 99.9995% of liquid was transported through our pipelines SAFELY. You probably spill more when you fill up at the gas station.

I understand you don’t want tankers floating down our beautiful B.C. Coast. But did you know the USA has been shipping up to 600,000 barrels a day of crude from Alaska to the Puget Sound through the Salish Sea for the last 20 years? Did you know that B.C. Has a Tanker Exclusion Zone that has been respected for years?
That zone stipulates that full tankers must travel on the west side of the zone but those that are not transporting goods can stay inside the protective zone. Other than one natural gas pipeline, Vancouver Island receives all of their petroleum by barge every day. I don’t remember ever hearing anyone complain about that.

According to Transport Canada over 197,000 vessels arrived or departed from west coast ports in 2015 – 1487 of them were tankers. 400,000 barrels of crude oil is safely transported off the B.C. Coast every single day. Sooo…. I think we are OK there. Emissions? 80% of the emissions associated with fossil fuels are generated in their combustion – not their extraction and transportation.

If you want to do something about our reliance on fossil fuels then address the demand for them not the transportation of them. Change starts with consumers not industry.

A large part of the demand for fossil fuels in B.C. Is transportation. 33% of our fossil fuels are used to operate cars, trucks, planes, trains and ferries. If we switched all of that over to electricity we would need not just one Site C dam but 15 of them. Which communities do you want to flood to provide the energy for your electric cars? Remember I live 7 km from Site C dam so I have a pretty good understanding of them.

I love this quote from Blair King an Environmental Scientist and Writer: “We live in a world where all the work we do to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions in B.C. Can be undone with the flick of a pen in China or India. No matter what we do, those developing countries are going to get electrical power to their populations – if not with LNG, then with coal; and if not with B.C. LNG, then with lower intensity (read: dirtier) LNG from one of our competitors. In both cases the end result is higher global GHG emissions than if B.C. LNG was used.”

He is telling us to look outside our province and see the impact we can have on GHG on our planet. Our LNG is cleaner than the stuff already on the market because our regulations are tougher and we emit far less GHG in our production than in other countries.

Our natural gas industry is committed to continuous improvement. I understand that you are concerned about safety. I am too. In Canada we have some of the strictest safety requirements in the world. Canada’s oil and gas producers are continuously improving the safety of their operations and transportation of their products.

Emergency Response Plans are customized for each community, covering key areas such as public safety, protection of community infrastructure, and a clear plan of action with local emergency responders. And we have the B.C. Oil and Gas Commission to oversee B.C. projects and the National Energy Board oversees the larger multi-jurisdictional projects.

The Oil and Gas Commission is our provincial agency responsible for regulating oil and gas activities in British Columbia, including exploration, development, pipeline transportation and reclamation.

Core responsibilities include reviewing and assessing applications for proposed industry activities, engaging with First Nations, cooperating with partner agencies, and ensuring industry complies with provincial legislation and all regulatory requirements. International delegations come to B.C., as world leaders, to learn how we have partnered environmental protection with resource extraction. I think the Oil and Gas Commission does a good job of protecting the interests of citizens.

Many of you have concerns about the rights of our Indigenous Peoples. I will not speak for them but I will provide you with a quote from Stephen Buffalo, president and CEO of the Indian Resource Council: “I think industry is now willing to be a partner (with First Nations). They want to come with the First Nations together. We are depending on these pipelines for the success of the Canadian economy.”

So let’s talk about the economy. B.C.’s energy sector offers some of the largest provincial economic opportunities in a generation. It is estimated that, in 2010, 11.2% of the provincial exports came from the natural resource sector. That was over $21 billion worth.
Canada’s oil and natural gas sector contributes $1.5 billion to the provincial government but it is estimated that it could go as high as $2.4 billion per year. This is money for health care, education and infrastructure. The resource sector is the foundational stone upon which the B.C. economy was built, and it is as important today as ever. 440,000 Canadians are employed because of the oil and gas sector.

A recent study by Philip Cross, former chief economic analyst at Statistics Canada, shows the huge economic value of the natural resource industry in B.C., and in particular the Lower Mainland. Cross’ report demonstrates that over 55 percent of resource-related jobs and income (direct, indirect and induced) flow to the Lower Mainland.

This means those workers contribute to our economy by renting or buying homes, buying groceries, enjoying a quality life and shopping their local businesses. Let’s lead the world in resource extraction, continuous improvements and long term planning. Let’s be leaders in reliable and renewable energy development.

Let’s support Canadian industry and stop buying foreign oil. Let’s grow our economy by meeting our domestic needs and exporting our abundant resources. Let’s live well now and in the future.

Thank you for taking the time to be an informed citizen.”

#25 Shawn on 03.30.18 at 7:03 pm

I strongly disagree. The TSX underperformance has nothing to do with macroeconomic factors. Its underperformance is directly a result of not consisting of stocks investors are buying. Energy and basic materials stocks are lagging in EM countries and the US also. The stocks are lagging their relative commodities.

#26 Leo Trollstoy on 03.30.18 at 7:04 pm

The conditions are there for the TSX to be crushing it instead the TSX is greatly lagging the US

$US all day every day cuz

#MAGA

#27 uh oh? on 03.30.18 at 7:09 pm

i see. interesting story. but as a technical analyst, why would you be holding the TSX? at what point would you exit the index? or are you just ignoring your tools in favour of hope?

#28 Reynolds531 on 03.30.18 at 7:19 pm

#8 Turner nation

It’s not just Toronto. London is overrun. Every major intersection when the weather allows. Don’t walk downtown more than thirty feet before you’re asked.

I worked downtown for twenty years, I’ve never seen it like this.

#29 Joseph R. on 03.30.18 at 7:20 pm

Thank the NDP/Lib carbon taxes. – Garth

A new motor fuel tax starts on April 1. No Joke.

” Effective April 1, 2018, the motor fuel tax rates in the Victoria regional transit service area are increased to 5.5 cents per litre from 3.5 cents on gasoline and diesel.”

https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/taxes/tax-changes/budget-changes

#30 PGer on 03.30.18 at 7:21 pm

Can’t wait until Alberta puts the screws to the lower rainland with its oil shipments. 2.00/litre gas anyone? But everyone will travel down to Blaine to fill up on that US non-carbon taxed/ non-transit levied gas, and give the gas taxes to the Americans.

That’s got to make perfect sense to the econuts and the NDP, and will surely save the world from that bad, bad Alberta oil. Honestly, you have to wonder just how stupid the BC NDP/ Greenie voters really are. Obviously, economics wasn’t their major.

#31 Blacksheep on 03.30.18 at 7:23 pm

Stan Brooks # 204,

#194 Blacksheep on 03.30.18 at 2:33 pm

Things will correct a bit based on human behavior, but the new lows price wise, will much higher than most people think.

Or, I’m completely full of shit and have no idea what I’m talking about, you decide.

=====================

“You are missing the opportunity cost of NOT INVESTING IN CANADA,

which is the best solution by far going forward,
You don’t need a house in this place when jobs disappear.”
—————————————
Not missing this Stan.

You, or a very small % of the population has the abilty
(capital) to ditch the RES to chase better returns via EM or wherever outside Canada.

But what the hell does the rest of the country do?

Was not saying the path chosen by the system is the best, but with very limited other options, that wouldn’t include a shit load of financial pain for the masses, there’s no denying, a rising tide, lifts all boats.

The reference was to Dogs waiting for a crash, that will be waiting a hell of a long time if ever, based on the scale of deflation required to half, the current market values in major cities globally.

#32 Lawnboy on 03.30.18 at 7:39 pm

I think those two symbols of Canadiana should be outside the Belfountain Store! Heck, I’ll buy 2 scoops and a photo op.

#33 Ryan Lewenza on 03.30.18 at 7:46 pm

Shawn “What are you thoughts on the cancelled Energy East pipeline? Would that have been a boom for the provinces involved or a money pit?”

I was a stronger proponent of the BC pipeline as the growth is clearly to the west (ie China). The Energy East pipeline would have allowed us to ship more oil to the eastern states and refineries but the growth is not nearly as high as it is with the west. So if Trudeau was going to kill one pipeline, Energy East was the right one IMO. – Ryan L

#34 Shawn on 03.30.18 at 7:50 pm

The TSX will go up but it will lag an unhedged S&P500 ETF (ie VFV) for the forseable future.

#35 Ryan Lewenza on 03.30.18 at 7:51 pm

Camille “Hi. I agree with your analysis. In addition, would you buy Canadian equities if you expected the currency to depreciate?”

For a Canadian investor and investing in Canadian stocks our dollar is less of an issue. If the CAD is going down that means the USD is going up so this could be a factor in deciding to buy more US stocks, but the direction of the CAD is less important when deciding to invest in Canadian stocks. – Ryan L

#36 Ryan Lewenza on 03.30.18 at 7:55 pm

CEO Canadian Millenial “Where do you see oil and the Loonie in six months from now and 1-3 year outlook from now?”

Over the next 6 months basically flat – oil is trading at my year end target of $66/bl and I’ve been calling for a flat Canadian dollar for this year. On a 1-3 year outlook, both higher. – Ryan L

#37 David on 03.30.18 at 7:55 pm

Why not process the bitumen ourselves in Alberta?

Then export a refined product.

More jobs, added value, means more money. Whats not to like about that.

This would be something every Canadian would be onside for.

#38 Ronaldo on 03.30.18 at 7:56 pm

#1 The Greater Cauliflower on 03.30.18 at 4:28 pm

Now that was funny.

#39 Alberta Ed on 03.30.18 at 8:09 pm

Don’t hold your breath for Mr. Dressup. He’s too busy planning his next apology.

#40 PGer on 03.30.18 at 8:14 pm

#24 Barb. Thanks for the comments from Lori Ackerman – I hadn’t seen these. Makes too much sense for the brainwashed, American-funded BC eco-warriors though. They don’t want to hear common sense. This is just war, funded mainly by US ecogroups, to kill the Canadian oil and gas industry (while the US one is somehow thriving like never before – funny about that).

They have spent a lot of time and money brainwashing the citizenry and have a very fertile ground here to do so. Just look at our politcal ‘leaders’ – Robertson, Corrigan, Horigan, Heyman, Weaver etc. I hope they’re all actually getting paid by the Americans, or else it makes absolutely no sense at all. And home to such great pro-Canadian eco-organizations such as Greenpeace, Suzuki, Sierra Club etc who try so hard to shut down everything Canadian resource related.

Nope – no sense in trying to talk sense to them. Turn off the oil taps to the lower mainland and watch them squirm. Horgan will do an about face faster than you can say Site C.

#41 SunnyDays on 03.30.18 at 8:23 pm

What’s the deal with the TSX?

It is missing companies driving growth.

For example, only about 3% of the index is Information Technology companies:
https://web.tmxmoney.com/index_sector.php?qm_symbol=^TSX

IT sector is 28% in Vanguard Growth ETF (VUG):
https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0967&FundIntExt=INT&funds_disable_redirect=true#tab=2

Scott Barlow describes this nicely in a Globe article. To test his claims, I compared S&P/ASX 200 (Australia), S&P TSX and XEM ETF charts and his theory holds for now:
http://www.globeinvestor.com/servlet/ArticleNews/story/GAM/20180130/RBIMBARLOWEMERGING

#42 Cash is King on 03.30.18 at 8:36 pm

“And don’t even get me started on Kathleen Wynne and her blatant attempt to buy votes in the upcoming Ontario provincial election.”

Sorry Ryan, It is not buying votes, It’s procuring suckers. Unfortunately, it works.

#43 Doghouse Dweller on 03.30.18 at 8:37 pm

Thank the NDP/Lib carbon taxes. – Garth

As per Gas Buddy.

Downtown BPOE gas $ 1.54 Cdn
Ferndale WA. gas $ 1.05 Cdn

49% more !!!!

Downtown Toronto gas $ 1.32
Buffallo NY. gas $ 0.88

44% more !!!!!

That carbon tax is going to cut off the Oxygen for Joe Sixpack.

#44 crossbordershopper on 03.30.18 at 8:46 pm

canada is a joke and a scam, everyone knows that. greatest country in the world if you compare it to the Ukraine or Nigeria. sure.
otherwise, America where any hard working high school grad can make it very well
in canada, very educated people have trouble doing well, i see it everyday. spinning your wheels for nothing.
the returns in Canada are sub par and always will be. i see people earning 6 percent a year, and think its pretty good, pocket change compared to US corporations and business opportunities that i have encountered down there.
1000 month rental rates for a 65K condo. and on and on, business you can buy for 2 x cash flow. sbla loans where you can get financing, in canada they give you the 3rd degree for a credit card with a 5K limit.
what, dividend tax credit, its been wattered down for 30 years now, what a bribe to stay in Canada. Americans pay 10 and 15% net on their div and capital gains, simple straight. in canada, enclusion rates, tax credits etc, what is all this bs.

#45 Smudgekin on 03.30.18 at 8:51 pm

So this explains Doug Ford’s 100% go on Ontario’s Ring of Fire.

#46 For those about to flop... on 03.30.18 at 8:58 pm

If you don’t wanna get wet ,stay away from the Super Soper…

M43BC

“B.C. speculation tax: Royal LePage report says new real estate levies could hurt consumer confidence.

A survey of 535 real estate professionals suggests that moves by the B.C. government to crack down on housing speculators will lead to a broader decrease in consumer confidence.

The survey, released by real estate agency Royal LePage, found that 85 per cent of the professionals polled believe “the new tax policies have hurt consumer confidence in residential real estate across the province.”

Additionally, 78 per cent of respondents think home sales will decrease within the next three months (57.3 per cent say prices will also go down in that time period).

Asked if the new regulation will cool interest from overseas buyers, 77 per cent said it would, but only 11.3 per cent believe those buyers will feel the biggest impact of the new policies; 44.8 per cent of advisers believe B.C. residents will be most affected, while 43.5 per cent think the new taxes will most hurt Canadians from outside B.C. who own or are looking to buy property in the province.

“The expected impact of the proposed housing taxes announced in British Columbia should not be taken lightly,” Royal LePage CEO Phil Soper said in a statement. “Canadian homebuyers from coast-to-coast were already struggling with new federal restrictions on access to mortgage financing. We expect the impact of (B.C.’s) new government’s housing tax policies to be even more pronounced as they will force Canadians, Americans and potential buyers from elsewhere in the world out of the market.”

Interest in property in the province from Canadians outside of B.C. has already gone down, 81.5 per cent of respondents said, while 73.8 per cent believe those from outside B.C. who already own property in the province will look to sell.

This trend is pinned on the speculation tax, where 90.8 of the survey respondents said the new tax, which was modified from its original proposed orientation by the government earlier this week, will have an impact on buyers from other provinces like Alberta.

“There are further unintended consequences from these kinds of policy changes,” Soper said. “If property values decline, property tax revenues decline. Local municipalities will have to deal with this added burden.”

The provincial government’s 2018 budget will put in place a speculation tax in certain areas of the province on properties which are determined to be secondary homes. It also increased the foreign buyers tax in hopes of decreasing the influence of overseas money in driving prices beyond levels that locals can afford; and added a new school tax on properties valued over $3 million, which can be deferred until the property is sold or the owner passes.”

http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/b-c-speculation-tax-royal-le-page-report-says-new-real-estate-levies-could-hurt-consumer-confidence#click=https://t.co/9bFIRFYwrf

#47 Sue on 03.30.18 at 9:06 pm

I think Alberta needs a wall, but just on the west side, do canada a big favor.

#48 New West on 03.30.18 at 9:10 pm

I was on the bus up to SFU one day last year. On the stretch up the Parkway I noticed all these pricier cars and SUVs (well over 75) parked on either side of the road. When I got up to the university I asked someone what was going on. “Oh,” he said,”there’s a pipeline protest going on against Kinder-Morgan.”

The irony, it burns.

#49 Sue on 03.30.18 at 9:11 pm

Oh and make them pay for it and also built it not using albertas ‘dirty oil’. It could be a green tourist attraction.

#50 Andrew Woburn on 03.30.18 at 9:12 pm

#4 Shawn on 03.30.18 at 4:46 pm
What are you thoughts on the cancelled Energy East pipeline? Would that have been a boom for the provinces involved or a money pit?
================

My two cents.

The EE Project might have made sense before the collapse of oil prices, the rise of renewables and the boom in US fracking.

The payback on a project like that has to be over 50 years or so. The price pipeline users can afford to pay for using the service has to be related to price they can get for oil delivered to the coast. Many people believe the rise of alternative energy and US fracking will keep oil prices in a tight range under $100 for the foreseeable future. It would be a very brave forecaster who could say EEP would have a positive payback over 50 years, i.e. recover its costs.

Although it seems like a no-brainer that Canadians should want to deliver Alberta oil to the East Coast in domestic pipelines, it is likely much more cost efficient to boost pipeline capacity to Texas and transship oil from there to the Maritimes or the rest of the world.

From the oil shippers point of view it is probably also more risk efficient to ship east by rail since, although unit shipping costs are higher, you only incur them when you have cash coming back from a sale. If you want guaranteed capacity on a pipeline you usually have to sign a “take-or-pay” contract which means you have to pay for contracted capacity even if you can’t use it. How scary is that in the brave new world of oil?

#51 Damifino on 03.30.18 at 9:13 pm

#8 TurnerNation

Toronto the Good? No longer. We’re like Van now with an interolerable presence of a small army of professional street beggers. Never before seen it this bad.
————————————————-

Check out Victoria, BC. Blanchard Street or Douglas. Any time of year. Hoo boy! Brutal.

#52 FreeBird on 03.30.18 at 9:31 pm

Watched a story on CBC a few months ago on this and seems not all indigenous groups/ leaders agree on pipeline and resent the more extreme environmental orgs. Not sure how true or where it stands now.

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.4253470

#53 espressobob on 03.30.18 at 9:31 pm

Speculation and market timing make for a bad portfolio.

Global index investors by market cap have been kicking the crap out of our beloved TSX for years.

Just saying. But still good with a side-bet or two on occasion. A few energy stocks are looking interesting?

#54 TSX Hopeless? on 03.30.18 at 9:40 pm

“I believe it’s a mix of internal and external forces that is causing this TSX underperformance. Specifically, I believe the ongoing NAFTA negotiations (external event) and the anti-global trade sentiment emanating from 1600 Pennsylvania Ave are causing investors to look elsewhere for their commodity exposure.”

——————————————————————-

With the greatest amount of respect Ryan, this doesn’t begin to explain why the TSX has done so poorly over the past 10 years. I mean at what point do you just give up on this dog and perhaps only maintain the percentage of its worldwide representation, which is about one and a half percent , in your portfolio? I know you have recently maintained that you believe that the index is spring loaded, but I truly don’t think the rest of the world cares about our stock market especially in light of the fact that the astute global investors believe that our bloated bully banks will go down with our real estate market.

#55 Garth's Son on 03.30.18 at 9:49 pm

Here’s the next weapon in the battle for B.C. housing affordability

Now it looks as if the B.C. NDP is preparing to take on a more thorny challenge to confront the housing crisis. It’s a tax-related problem that Liberal MLA Mike DeJong promised to address three years ago when he was finance minister, but never did. The repercussions could be significant for increasing housing affordability.

The challenge is the so-called “bare-trust loophole,”

The loophole remains open in B.C. despite the province of Ontario largely closing it in the late 1980s.

B.C. Attorney General David Eby and anti-money-laundering expert Peter German were in Ottawa this week telling a parliamentary committee about how the transnational rich are pumping billions of dollars into B.C. real estate by using bare trust loopholes and other techniques that make it possible for them to avoid paying B.C.’s property transfer taxes, the foreign-buyers tax and federal capital gains taxes.

http://vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/douglas-todd-heres-the-next-weapon-in-the-battle-for-b-c-housing-affordability

Zero impact on house prices. And you are no son of mine! – Garth

#56 Mountain_camper_in_tent on 03.30.18 at 9:49 pm

#24 Barb

Thanks for uploading mayor’s letter.Exactly my sentiments.

A working Albertan.

#57 Newcomer on 03.30.18 at 9:50 pm

Is it not possible that Canada was simply over-bought? During the financial crisis, vast amounts of money flowed into Canada as a safe-haven country, commodities were likewise bought as a safe bet. Now that the doom and despair have blown over it’s not unreasonable for there to be some unwinding.

#58 Shawn on 03.30.18 at 9:52 pm

I unfortunately think the TSX is headed back to 14000 in the near term due to further weakness in commodity related stocks. Canadian banks will continue to lag US banks also and are due for some someways consolidation.

#59 april on 03.30.18 at 9:53 pm

#46 – O dear we complain about consumers being over indebted and foolishly buying over priced homes then we complain about the changes to try and cool things down. Of course the real estate industry will be against any moves to cool the market and try to make it look like there concerned about the consumers when in fact their only concerned about the own interests. Vancouver area needs a huge home price correction so just let it happen.

#60 Mountain_camper_in_tent on 03.30.18 at 9:58 pm

#37 David

Very good idea to upgrade resources right here in Alberta.I remember in boom years 2006-7 industry was complaining that labor is too expensive for new projects.Guess what, thousands of technical workforce are available right now.

Build gas crackers – make ethylene- from which every possible petrochemical that we use in our daily life,can be made…such as rubbers/plastics/solvents etc.Obviously,our environmental and engineering standards will make sure that we do it in a environmentally friendly way.Thousands of good paying jobs can be created.

Land is not a problem.
Let’s do it.

#61 NoName on 03.30.18 at 10:13 pm

amazon

http://uk.businessinsider.com/amazon-hq2-could-go-to-virginia-evidence-2018-3

#62 Garth's Son He Never Had on 03.30.18 at 10:14 pm

Zero impact on house prices. And you are no son of mine! – Garth

So, hundreds of billions of dollars being invested into Canadian real estate that enjoys tax avoidance won’t have an impact on prices if all of the sudden it shifts elsewhere to another country that doesn’t have the spotlight turned on?

Should be fine.

The local middle class worker can fill in the hole left by what is coming.

Richard Wozny (who died in January), that shows how a “large, mysterious, untaxed pool of international capital” is being converted into speculative investment in residential real estate. Much of that investment, Wozny discovered, is being subsidized by tax avoidance and evasion, which hurts the tax-paying middle class.


‘Hundreds of billions.’ Funny. – Garth

#63 mike from mtl on 03.30.18 at 10:18 pm

Told ya, TSE is basically a EM not worth concentraing in.

Other than collecting dividends in poloz peso who cares about us?

#64 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.30.18 at 10:25 pm

@#37 David
“Why not process the bitumen ourselves in Alberta?
Then export a refined product.
More jobs, added value, means more money. Whats not to like about that.
This would be something every Canadian would be onside for.”
+++++++

Total agreement.
Except for the last line.
There are protesters for every issue.
Some would still oppose Alberta oil being piped and shipped through BC because…….if they werent busy protesting everything they’d be cut off welfare

#65 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.30.18 at 10:35 pm

@#51 Damfino
“interolerable presence of a small army of professional street beggers. Never before seen it this bad….”
+++++

Yep, stopped giving cash to street kids with stolen puppies or healthy adults with nicer, cleaner clothes than mine years ago.
I miss the good old days of toothless buskers singing “Ring of Fire” off key while playing a stringless guitar outside the Liquor store.
Ahhhhh memories………
But I digress.
Now?
I hand out completed McDonalds Coffee cards to the down and out….at least they’re allowed to use the washroom if they’re a customer.

#66 Loonie Doctor on 03.30.18 at 10:45 pm

One of the main reasons in my mind to have some Canadian in the portfolio, rather than just emerging markets on the whole, has been the favourable dividend treatment. The currency is the one we live in so is not a major concern for me. I am admittedly still below my allocation of Canadian stocks. Every time I sit down and rebalance, I add a bit but still boost my other below target areas a bit faster. There should be reversion to the mean at some point, but everytime I think we are about to start it our government says or does something else to torpedo the incentives or infrastructure for building successful Canadian businesses and the economy. It is stunning really.

#67 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.30.18 at 11:06 pm

@#62 Garth’s Wanna Be Pretend son
“Richard Wozny (who died in January), that shows how a “large, mysterious, untaxed pool of international capital” is being converted into speculative investment in residential real estate.”
+++++++

Dr. Evil voice ………. Riiiiiiiiiiight

#68 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.30.18 at 11:07 pm

Full Moon tonight!
Explains a lot

#69 Andrew Woburn on 03.30.18 at 11:17 pm

#55 Garth’s Son on 03.30.18 at 9:49 pm
Here’s the next weapon in the battle for B.C. housing affordability

The challenge is the so-called “bare-trust loophole,”

The loophole remains open in B.C. despite the province of Ontario largely closing it in the late 1980s.
================

I can’t see how this is a big deal. A bare trust simply implies that the trustee is holding the property in trust for a third party or parties and that the trustee retains no beneficial interest in the property. There has to be a written trust agreement on file to make it effective.

While this conceals the identity of the owner from the general public, it is no shield against governmental authorities especially CRA who have every legal right to demand the identities of the beneficiaries. If they are not doing this, it is a failure of enforcement.

If somehow this is a problem I would simply change the rules to deem that any trustee for any asset is a non-resident unless they provide solid proof of the identity of the related beneficial owners. This would make trustees personally liable for any resulting taxes owing until they divulged the identities of the beneficial owners to government authorities.

Problem solved.

#70 Andrew Woburn on 03.30.18 at 11:28 pm

#37 David on 03.30.18 at 7:55 pm
Why not process the bitumen ourselves in Alberta?

Then export a refined product.

More jobs, added value, means more money. Whats not to like about that.

This would be something every Canadian would be onside for.

================

We actually are processing in Alberta. Read about the new Sturgeon refinery and there are also partial upgraders that take to bitumen to a more transportable form

http://business.financialpost.com/commodities/energy/north-west-refining-withdrawing-proposal-to-expand-sturgeon-refinery-for-now

#71 espressobob on 03.30.18 at 11:33 pm

Given the day and age we currently live in, why do so many investors and advisors suffer from residential bias?

Canada is a small player on the world stage.

#72 VICTORIA TEA PARTY on 03.30.18 at 11:41 pm

# 24 #40

CAPITAL FLIGHT: BOOT LICKING, KNEE BENDS AND OTHER GYMNATICS

That’s what Canada’s “elites” are doing in a national genuflection toward Big American Environmental.

In a country filled to the brim with “useful idiots” who happily support American environmental organizations whose sole goal is to ensure Canada has NO ECONOMIC FUTURE leaves me wondering what the hell happened leading up to this current state of affairs.

Two main reasons:

–our pitiful colonial past just keeps our “elites” in thrall because it feels comfortable. No change here folks, nothing to see, just drive on; Upper and Lower Canada Compacts. Old customs do not die. They just get stinky.

–young people “graduating”, if you can call it that from various arts faculties at our colleges and universities, are beyond ignorant.

They are the dull-brained cannon fodder and pathetic snowflakes which is why you find them on the front lines of “environmental” protests.

They’ve nowhere else to go. Who’d want them?

No one ever taught them history, economics, or how to read and write with any degree of competence, never mind to even “think critically.”

So these numbskulls shackle themselves to Kinder Morgan’s fence in Burnaby BC, hoping to “bring down capitalism.” They vote Green, and have no identifiable skills that would plop them into the workforce; impoverished basement and apartment spawn.

Result? These folks are killing their own country and they don’t even know it. No clue at all.

Big American Environmental has one goal: to have Canadians keep ALL our non-renewable resources “safely in the ground” so the American Empire can return and plunder them decades from now. Meanwhile the American Empire has shucked off the Obama somnambulant years and is firing on all cylinders.

These orgs don’t care about Canada or Canadians. They see us as “deplorables” who deserve perdition and poverty. “Screw ’em” they are saying about us. And they would be right.

If we don’t look after ourselves someone else will!

Meanwhile our mainly left-leaning politicians just re-enforce those ignorants at the fence-lines and prattle and bleat about how “bad” oil sands oil is.

It may interest you all to know that there would be only ONE ADDITIONAL TANKER SHIPMENT PER DAY out of the Port of Vancouver should the pipeline be finished.

Selling that oil will bring in billions of dollars of desperately needed revenues so our governments can buy all those endlessly expensive social programs.

The only revenue option is to borrow money and become serfs to the foreign bond market brokers. They are greedy and have NO sense of humour.

Ontario, for example, fobs $1-billion a MONTH in interest payments to the bond sellers and buyers on its amazingly large debt. Talk about serfdom.

Back to Kinder Morgan: much of that “tar sands”oil is already daily leaving the port in double-hulled tankers destined for…ta da…Cherry Point’s oil refinery in Washington state, and elsewhere.

Meanwhile, and also daily, American-flagged tankers shuttle millions of barrels of Alaskan crude through Juan de Fuca Strait past southern Vancouver Island’s pristine shores, and a group of 56 “endangered” killer whales, to that very busy Cherry Point refinery, just south of Vancouver.

So why aren’t the environmentalists picketing THOSE ships? Because they are American bottoms and they are needed to help “Make America Great Again.” Don’t mess with the Trumpster.

MEANWHILE, who out there in the Great White North has the balls to try and “Make Canada Great Again?”

No one. Why?

Because those “in charge” don’t want to offend their American masters south of the 49th.

They’re happy just to drink their collective bathwater and get a good eight hours sleep every night.

Meanwhile those same “elites” are getting giddy with excitement because they think the new NAFTA deal will be “good” for Canada! Soon.

How do they know?

They don’t.

Meanwhile capital keeps fleeing our shores for greener pastures, which means just about EVERYWHERE.

#73 JSS on 03.30.18 at 11:42 pm

The day after you get fed up and sell your Canadian equities, will be the start of a long bull run for the TSX.

You will become both frustrated and elated, and end up entering and exiting the TSX at all the wrong times.

Your return on Canadian equities will be below the TSX return, and then you will become frustrated and purchase bonds.

#74 JSS on 03.30.18 at 11:46 pm

For any long term pragmatic TSX investors, Reits, pipelines, utilities, insurance, and railroads are all on sale. These are Canadian dividend growth blue chip stocks were talking about here, with decades of growth in both dividend and capital gains.

You’ll look back a year down the line and say “s$&t how could I have missed that?”

#75 Entrepreneur on 03.31.18 at 12:04 am

And process the bitumen right here in Alberta #37 Dave and I am sure even Elizabeth May would agree with you.

This would create jobs for Canadians and we get to see the pros and cons. At least it is in our own backyard.

As for #37 Barb…about Lori Ackerman’s letter…just because the US is shipping oil pass us does not make it the correct thing to do. And that is a lot of heavy responsibility if and when something happens. I know that I could not live myself.

And this is 2018 and the earth/environment need calming down, leaders should show respect. And how to do that? Try not disrupt the soil/land/water.

Did you know Lori Ackerman that the earth is not as solid as thought, the top layer so many feet down but underneath is like a jelly mass? And we should not be disturbing it like we are doing now.

#76 Dolce Vita on 03.31.18 at 12:07 am

#9 FOUR FINGERS WATSON

Well, 50% of the population has an IQ < 100, so, there you go.

The sad thing is, you can't tell them that or their feelings will be hurt or they just, plain, don't understand what you're trying to tell them.

The lights are on, but nobody's home.

Nice to read a reductio that is not absurdum.

Good observation 4 Fingers.

#77 Dolce Vita on 03.31.18 at 12:26 am

You can’t reason with fanatics.

Especially in swing ridings that border the BC coast where you have tankers cozying up for refueling and those same swing ridings get you elected in a BC Election.

Yes, it is perfectly ridiculous that a very small population of fanatics wish to dictate the National Energy Program of a Nation.

Of course, they are all proud Canadians as long as it is NIMBY.

Canadians, due to the expanse of the country, have always been “provincial” in their thinking (just like RE) but this is taking that nuance to the point of stupidity and harming the livelihoods of many, many other Canadians (let alone our Trade Balance) at the expense of their RE market value and their perceived infringement of their own “private habitat” that they wish to create (or maintain).

Petty, is an understatement.

All you have now in Government is seems is policy by polls and speeches that wish to resonate with the Facebook and Twitter SJW crowd.

There are no Leaders anymore that care about the National good, just Followers (as in Twitter).

#78 Dolce Vita on 03.31.18 at 12:35 am

#24 Barb

That was excellent except for 1 minor flaw:

You cannot reason with NIMBY fanatics. Plain. And. Simple.

That was a great post and exceptionally well written by the heartfelt Mayor, pity it will fall upon deaf fanatical ears.

Like the other days post: Human Nature hard at work, yet again.

#79 Kool Aid on 03.31.18 at 12:38 am

Then after the subprime crisis materialized….

The FED printed heavenly and bailout (recapitalized) major US financial institutions, whom in turn actively supported big biz loans aimed at stock buy backs, knowing the outcome, the derivatives market positioned long for an extended period, amplifying the result.

The BOC supported CHMC, increased loan flow through and increased loan generation & capacity to the benefited the property market.

Happy Easter Weekend

#80 joblo on 03.31.18 at 12:55 am

Hey Alberta, screw B.C., Turdeau and the tree huggies.
Explore building your own pipeline down to connect with Montana and ship it to Cherry Point refinery in Washington state.
It’s where the Alaska stuff that flows down past B.C. “pristine” coastline everyday gets refined. (Hippocrates)
I think Montana, Idaho and Washington are not commies.

#81 AGuyInVancouver on 03.31.18 at 1:33 am

Gee, you think Garth would be celebrating, rather than castigating the Dippers, as he claimed all along it was speculators driving YVR home prices:

“It appears to be the end of the road for the Vancouver detached housing market. Sales are expected to round out the first quarter of 2018 at their lowest total in twenty years. With that, speculative activity has also dried up.

As of March 29th, Vancouver detached home flipping, (a home bought and resold within 24 months) plummeted to it’s lowest total since November 2008…”
http://vancitycondoguide.com/detached-home-flipping-10-year-low/

#82 corruption on 03.31.18 at 1:42 am

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-13813688

#83 TEMPLE on 03.31.18 at 1:45 am

“Yes we have to consider the environmental consequences and try to minimize the effects of drilling and exporting oil & gas, but this shouldn’t take precedence over jobs, economic prosperity and progress!”

Wow…just…wow. Really, Ryan? It would take me an hour I don’t have just to unpack all the wrong in this alone. I believe I am very relieved you aren’t in charge of any of these decisions. Thank whatever for the NDP and Greens.

#84 OntarioIsBankrupt on 03.31.18 at 1:49 am

I wish you ripped Justin and Katy Wynne more than you did. But you did alright… I am now a fan of yours. #ZeroSeatsForOntarioLiberals2018

#85 salted on 03.31.18 at 1:51 am

#44 crossbordershopper

The BS is prolly this..

Prostate cancer treatment in US? $70,000.
In Canada? Free.

That’s why.

#86 Doug t on 03.31.18 at 1:53 am

This country is going to the dogs – and to put a Royal Crappy Mounted Police in the pic is a diservice to that beaver

RATM

#87 Al on 03.31.18 at 4:00 am

“Yes we have to consider the environmental consequences and try to minimize the effects of drilling and exporting oil & gas, but this shouldn’t take precedence over jobs, economic prosperity and progress!”

Should we continue to encourage an energy industry with such poor EROI? That doesnt seem like a sound long term strategy. There also that annoying environment thing. Not surprisingly the two are related. Maximum short term $$$$ at all costs?? Yup. Human nature never changes it seems.

#88 not so liquid in calgary on 03.31.18 at 6:43 am

@ David on 03.30.18 at 7:55 pm
Why not process the bitumen ourselves in Alberta?

————————————————————————

refineries are big and expensive. then there is the NIMBY issue. here’s another take:

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2012/05/23/canada-oil-refineries_n_1539701.html

#89 Old Ron the Realtor on 03.31.18 at 7:41 am

Ryan says that the BC pipeline is not getting done because of political “foot fragging” Thanks for clearing that up because the issue has been stalled since early in the Harper administration. (2006 – 2015)

The Federal Gov has been trying for more than a decade to get a pipe to the ocean, both for gas and oil. Meanwhile our Alberta Select oil is selling this week @ $36.93 USD a barrel to our only foreign customer the USA.

That fact could explain why most of the financial support for the opposition groups, (both indigenous and environmental) comes from the USA. Gee maybe some USA folks (and agencies). like our $36 oil and don’t want to spend WTI prices.

Also included in the opposition mix is a long standing antipathy between BC and Alberta. Throw in centuries old unresolved land rights issues, and you have what we have.

So do some digging Ryan and maybe spread the word that Canada is Pi**ing away $10s of Billions of dollars every year in part because our province’s tail is wagging the National Government’s dog.

#90 maxx on 03.31.18 at 8:37 am

#27 CEO Canadian Millenial on 03.29.18 at 7:27 pm

“What about our Loonies? Will we have to pay Garth in $100 bills for ice cream? Where do we see the Loonie in Q4 2018, 2019, 2020 2021 and 2022?”

When we rethink elements as basic as space and time, the budget will balance itself and the loonie regain parity.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o86n3MJxarc

What a toe-curling global embarrassment.

#91 Wrk.dover on 03.31.18 at 8:51 am

I’ll just leave this here…

“He died on the cross for what?”

#92 Kaganovich on 03.31.18 at 8:59 am

Ryan wrote:
“Yes we have to consider the environmental consequences and try to minimize the effects of drilling and exporting oil & gas, but this shouldn’t take precedence over jobs, economic prosperity and progress!”

This sentiment will be obsolete within a decade or so I predict. We are witnessing, in real time, the meltdown of the Arctic and the attendant impairment of the jetstream/predictable weather patterns that we took for granted. Perhaps you could make a case for mega scale geoengineering and the GDP boost they may provide, but really, it may behoove you to listen to Carney’s speech to Lloyds again. Regardless, it is becoming common knowledge that ‘progress, growth, jobs’ etc. are merely trees. The biosphere is the forest. Prioritize accordingly.

#93 Penny Henny on 03.31.18 at 9:54 am

I was at a dinner party last night and the subject of politics came up. A public sector employee mentioned he might vote for Wynne. In a very polite way I said ” How can you be that stupid?”. My thoughts are that some people will be voting Liberal even though they may not openly admit it. Just like what happened in the US presidential election, people wanted Trump but they didn’t want to be ridiculed so they did not talk about it, they were closet Trumpers. Here it is a bit different though, Ontarions want all the goodies but will not say they are voting Liberal next election.
I’m very scared.

#94 Sean Anderson on 03.31.18 at 9:58 am

Ryan – there are a number of reasons why Canadian oil is trading at significant discount – it’s not of the same quality and the transportation economics don’t compare even if the pipeline is built. Check this article out:

http://theenergymix.com/2018/03/04/exclusive-out-of-the-loop-the-fatal-flaw-of-albertas-oil-export-expansion/

#95 WYNNING ! on 03.31.18 at 10:03 am

Haha, even the alt-right National Post agrees :)

““The increase in support for the Liberals is as drastic as it is sudden,” Forum Research president Lorne Bozinoff said in a statement.”

http://nationalpost.com/news/canada/ontario-liberal-budget-appears-to-work-new-poll-shows-pcs-unable-to-capture-majority

“Although 44 per cent of the 768 surveyed said they disapprove of the budget, specific elements seemed to have just enough appeal to swing the difference for the Liberals. Free daycare received a thumbs up from 53 per cent, while 74 per cent backed added spending to reduce overcrowding at hospitals.”

Tories are toast. This trend is just starting, and will continue until June.

Conservatives are out-of-touch idiot elitists, who don’t even know who they are.

WYNNING !

#96 Drew Peacock on 03.31.18 at 10:12 am

In typical Canadian fashion, there will be a massive joint Federal-Provincial porkbarrelling project to develop extraction, transmission, pumping, and related port, rail, and road infrastructure.

………And by the time they release the funding and permits to jumpstart this, the projects will be commissioned precisely 3 years after the technical challenges related to electric autos and solar energy are solved, and, smash the value of this investment back by 60% and make it dead before costs can be recovered.

That’s how we roll.

I think the ideal time when the governments needed to do something to jumpstart oil production and shipping was back in the glory days when oil was like $75 a barrel and on its way to $110 whatever.

Or maybe now….if we get some big stuff on line in 5 years, it might bring in enough wealth to justify the investment before we’re off oil. In any case, the Keynesians will be delighted with the residual economic benefit.

#97 Here for a Baloney Sandwitch on 03.31.18 at 10:31 am

Patience, Ryan. T2 is on the job. He will fix NAFTA first before turning to the pipeline. KML stock has been trending up – with a nice 3.5% yield.

#98 Doug in London on 03.31.18 at 10:38 am

It appears that getting new oil pipelines built in this country is bordering on impossible, so there may be a another solution. What’s the feasibility of fixing up that rail line to Churchill and shipping some of that crude there by rail and loading it on ships? It’s seasonal but better than no shipping at all. What about oil spills if there’s a derailment? There’s a process where that bitumen can be solidified into puck sized bars for shipping and re-liquified at the receiving end.

#99 Doug in London on 03.31.18 at 10:43 am

@JSS, posts #73 and 74:
I agree with you on those ideas. I’ve also added to my holdings of pipelines and electric utilities during these late Boxing Week sales. One exception is I’m not buying any more Enbridge, despite these cheap prices, as it’s probably going to be a longer time to recover.

#100 Bytor the Snow Dog on 03.31.18 at 10:57 am

#21 Madcat on 03.30.18 at 6:32 pm sez:

“This is exactly the kind of thinking that will destroy our planet for future generations. It is time to change our way of life to better our planet. Some of our fellow human beings may have to be subject to poverty while our economy transitions.
Humans could live in a utopia if we reduce our population by 90% and develop our robot work force…”

———————————————————–

Time for you to put your best foot forward, put your money where your mouth is, and step up. You should take a leadership role in being impoverished then you could volunteer to be part of the 90% culled.

You know, for the good of humanity.

#101 Cowpoke on 03.31.18 at 11:02 am

Which country do you want to live in? Choose wisely.

#102 just a dude on 03.31.18 at 11:10 am

Ryan, great insights. Thanks for sharing.

#103 KingOfWhat on 03.31.18 at 11:42 am

ya ok, found a succinct, detailed post answering the question “why does the internet hate Wynne ?”.

https://goo.gl/GhqSrw (reddit)

good reading, in my opinion.

#104 Two-thirds on 03.31.18 at 11:47 am

What seems to be lost on the discussion here today is how the total level of foreign investment has (not an overstatement) plummeted in recent history.

Compared to the turn of the century, foreign investment in Canada is down 60%. Compared to just prior to the Great Recession, it is down 67%, and even compared against the (already reduced) level before the start of our current government, it is down by 50%!

Why does (legal) *foreign investment* matter? When Canada’s capital is heavily tilted towards the FIRE (finance, insurance and real estate) industries, the investment required in many other sectors (manufacture, resources, etc.) has to come from somewhere else. Investors’ decision to do so depends on how appealing the return on investment stacks up against other global destinations where foreign capital could go. This applies equally to Canadian capital, which can (and does) walk out the door in search of better returns in other economies.

What we are witnessing, according to Ryan’s chart, is international investors choosing better returns and a more welcoming treatment elsewhere. This is largely dictated by government policies that either encourage or discourage foreign capital to come to Canada, foster economic activity and the local jobs that come with it.

We seem to have lost that contest to other jurisdictions.

Our national and provincial leaders are choosing priorities and policies that make it unappealing for investors (foreign and national) to invest here. By focusing on increased taxation, a dramatic expansion of social programs, and neglecting investment in infrastructure or innovation, our governments are signaling to the world that Canada, the unassailable beacon in all gender- and equity-related matters, is not very interested in their business and will not compete for investors to bring economic activity here.

So instead of arguing over whether AB or BC is right, or which economy is more righteous, let us ask what steps our governments have taken to replace investment (national and foreign) on Canada’s historically strong industries. It is fine if a government’s policy is to move the economy away from certain sectors, and voters support it, but the government also has to explain which sectors will replace the old ones, how, when, and what policies they will put in place to make this happen. Failing to do so causes uncertainty, and uncertainty is like kryptonite for entities seeking to invest billions in our country, for the long run.

If investors are staying away from Canada, is it a stretch to conclude that they either: 1) do not understand our plans, 2) do not believe they will be successful, or 3) not see us as competitive an investment destination as others?

Until this gets addressed, and the imbalances in capital allocation towards non-productive assets (i.e., residential real estate) get fixed, we will continue being a: morally-superior, passive-aggressive, over-educated but under-achieving bunch, paying more and more taxes to support a vision of Canada that transcends national unity, economic growth, and prosperity through productivity, giving us instead gender balance, abundant marijuana, “free” health coverage and drugs, “free” childcare or monetary benefits (for some), and zero concerns about national budgets and debt.

Oh Canada?! is right. Sadly.

#105 Lachman Balani on 03.31.18 at 11:52 am

Really tsx ytd is -5%?

#106 Brett on 03.31.18 at 12:05 pm

“Yes we have to consider the environmental consequences and try to minimize the effects of drilling and exporting oil & gas, but this shouldn’t take precedence over jobs, economic prosperity and progress!”

The typical line of “balancing economic priorities with environmental stewardship” . What crap… Instead of Canada investing in truck nutz and high school educations that pay $100k a year to drive a dump truck we should be investing in strategies and technologies that reduce our energy demand and then export that expertise. Knowledge is the new oil… Forget that and you might be sitting at a Trump Loves Coal event someday soon!

#107 IMHO on 03.31.18 at 12:43 pm

Ryan,

The TSX is basically just oil and bank stocks.

Canadian oil has no pricing power due to the green minorities in this country.

Banks gladly marketed and booked every cheap money loan they could get their hands on. Only now they (and the customers they sold to) have more leverage than in the run up to 2008.

It is not complicated and no need for fancy charts.

#108 Russ on 03.31.18 at 12:53 pm

Old Ron the Realtor on 03.31.18 at 7:41 am

Ryan says that the BC pipeline is not getting done because of political “foot fragging” Thanks for clearing that up because the issue has been stalled since early in the Harper administration. (2006 – 2015)

Also included in the opposition mix is a long standing antipathy between BC and Alberta. Throw in centuries old unresolved land rights issues, and you have what we have.

So do some digging Ryan and maybe spread the word that Canada is Pi**ing away $10s of Billions of dollars every year in part because our province’s tail is wagging the National Government’s dog.
======================

You forgot to mention B.C.’s position to play the separatist card. Notwithstanding.

For very first time in history we have NDP in B.C. and Alberta and they cannot agree on basic isssue.

What a friggin’ joke!

#109 Andrew Woburn on 03.31.18 at 1:00 pm

85 salted on 03.31.18 at 1:51 am
#44 crossbordershopper
The BS is prolly this..
Prostate cancer treatment in US? $70,000.
In Canada? Free.
That’s why.
======================

It is a mute testament to the inadequacy of the education system that so many Canadians think our health care is free. How can they so ignorant of the fact that it is a huge component of our personal tax bill and growing rapidly?

The difference between our system and the US is theirs is only partially socialized (Medicaid, etc), and the private component is expensive, inefficient and hopelessly unfair to poor citizens. Average Americans pay way more for inferior coverage but we still pay heavily for coverage. We just don’t see the bill.

#110 Keith on 03.31.18 at 1:12 pm

China invested over 100 billion last year in renewable energy. Investment in renewable energy in emerging markets was more than double the investment in conventional fossil fuel power. The more public and private resources we commit to fossil fuels, the further behind we will fall.

Fossil fuels will be used for a long time to come, but when solar, wind and distributed storage reach a tipping point the size of the market will plummet. Germany is at 36% green power, despite the first mover disadvantages. We are already being left behind.

http://www.publicfinanceinternational.org/news/2016/03/china-worlds-largest-investor-renewable-energy

#111 Honey Dripper on 03.31.18 at 1:24 pm

I’m down -6.5 % but in my wife’s greater fool balanced Pf down just -2%
https://thestockmarketspeculator.blogspot.ca/2018/03/investing-performance-q1-2018.html

#112 Andrew Woburn on 03.31.18 at 1:35 pm

I have as much stake in the pipeline/tanker argument as anyone. Our front deck is 100 yards from the pristine Salish Sea and our neighborhood marine park has breathtaking views. At the most selfish level, a major oil spill will affect our property enjoyment and value directly.

Nevertheless I remain skeptical of the tanker hysteria. Ships pass our house constantly. There is always some risk of a catastrophic spill but I note that the Alaska and Gulf of Mexico spills did not actually destroy their local environments as expected although the immediate effects were not pretty and some have lasted.

I also do not share the Republican belief that markets will regulate themselves. Oil shipments need stringent regulation and tough enforcement though I suspect that insurance companies do a reasonable job of risk management as well.

I would have a great deal more sympathy with environmental agitators if they could come up with policies that would help manage risk rather than take the absurd position that all oil use must stop. It just reinforces my perception that they don’t or refuse to understand that all government revenues derive from present or past entrepreneurial activities and that their morally elitist demands can only hurt average Canadians.

I wish they would turn their drive and political skills to making a safer system that works and in making wealth distribution in this country less unequal.

#113 Bobby on 03.31.18 at 1:36 pm

For #95 Wynning!

I am surprised how so many just like you are so easily duped here in Canada. Mr Trudeau, Mr Horgan and now Ms Wynn promised voters everything and it wouldn’t cost them anything. Sadly, the joke is on you.
Either the promise never materializes or if it does your costs rise to pay for it. No $10 daycare here in BC.
They say everyone has a price. But I’m surprised how cheap many can be bought for, especially with their own money.
Perhaps I’ll run for office. Everyone will never have to work again, there will be a million in every bank account and I’ll sweeten the pot with a red convertible.
My goodness, look at the line up.

#114 Karma on 03.31.18 at 1:40 pm

Garth and blog dogs,

I’m trying to introduce a friend to this blog and she has zero idea on how to create a portfolio. So I want to provide her with the best of Garth’s portfolio creation posts over the years. Does anyone remember some of the best ones (and their dates of posting) for a newby?

#115 Andrew Woburn on 03.31.18 at 2:11 pm

#94 Sean Anderson on 03.31.18 at 9:58 am
Ryan – there are a number of reasons why Canadian oil is trading at significant discount – it’s not of the same quality and the transportation economics don’t compare even if the pipeline is built. Check this article out:

http://theenergymix.com/2018/03/04/exclusive-out-of-the-loop-the-fatal-flaw-of-albertas-oil-export-expansion/
=======================

There is nothing in this article which is new or surprising. It appears to be written by an “investigative reporter” with a climate agenda.

If VLCC shipments reduce the end price of oil to world users, that will have to be reflected in the selling price of oil sands products just as all the other additional refining transportation costs are now. It won’t put them out of business as existing players are profitable at current price levels. These new VLCC’s are not designed to carry heavy oil products anyway.

VLCC’s are not an unmixed blessing for shippers. There will be few ports able to accept them so much of their cargoes will have to be transshipped to their final destination. The Panama canal has just been double tracked to accommodate increased traffic but I doubt that it can accept VLCC’s and I suspect the same applies to the Suez Canal.

It is probable that oil majors exited the oil sands because they are driven by short term profit goals and saw greater opportunities in fracking and are worried about major long term capital commitments in anything including deep sea projects. Established Canadian producers with pipe in the ground can afford a longer term view.

The more likely change to oil sands economics will be the developing concerns about the use of bunker oil by world shipping. This is unquestionably dirty and even if you are a global warming skeptic, you have to prefer that industry be restrained from pumping nasty stuff into the airshed.

#116 Entrepreneur on 03.31.18 at 2:41 pm

A healthy debate in the comment section today and thanks RL for allowing us to do so.

And is #104 Two-thirds sounds like nonplused, style of thinking. Some good points.

And after this back and forth discussion #110 Keith is the solution: green energy, which other countries are ahead of us. This is a healthier solution for us and earth.

And with jobs.

#117 Cici on 03.31.18 at 2:41 pm

I think the oil analysis is leaning a liitle towards idealism. Even if the project erre to go through, I doubt prices would come down for Canadians.
And although I’m no expert on the oil industry, as far as refineries go, I’m not sure that there are many left in Eastern Canada. From what I can vaguely remember, the Americans bought a bunch of them up some eight years ago, kept the sites as stocking terminals only, but displaced all the refinery activity to American soil. They played their cards right, and if I’m not mistaken, that all occurred under Harper’s Conservatives. I imagine the result is that we have our hands tied: not enough refineries left, those that are probably aren’t even under our true ownership, and the cost of the buy-backs and getting them into production would probably be onerous.

#118 Joe on 03.31.18 at 2:49 pm

EM was tied to commodities once upon a time – now it has a huge tech sector driving returns.

#119 jess on 03.31.18 at 2:53 pm

youth activism/ agism
#20 Robert on 03.30.18 at 6:31 pm

“rebalancing”
https://features.propublica.org/ibm/ibm-age-discrimination-american-workers/

“This country has banned mandatory retirement,” said Seiner, the University of South Carolina law professor and former EEOC appellate lawyer. “The law says taking a retirement package has to be voluntary. If you tell somebody ‘Retire or we’ll lay you off or fire you,’ that’s not voluntary.”
https://www.propublica.org/article/investigating-ibm-digital-community-ex-employees

Ingraham is leaving amidst ongoing controversy and boycotts
As Advertisers Bail, Fox News’ Laura Ingraham Announces “Vacation”
https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2018/03/as-advertisers-bail-fox-news-laura-ingraham-announces-vacation/

This 16-Year-Old Founded a “Movement of Unstoppable Youth” to Save the Planet
Zero Hour is marching for climate action this summer.

https://www.ourchildrenstrust.org/
https://ici.radio-canada.ca/premiere/emissions/phare-ouest/segments/entrevue/64810/jacob-lebel-americain-orgegon-poursuite-our-children-trust
Hogg told CNN that Ingraham’s remarks were part of an effort to “distract” from the debate on gun violence.

“From a journalistic standpoint I would say she needs to be more objective and stand down because I am not the issue here,” he said. “The issue needs to be gun violence in America. But what she’s trying to do is to distract from that and I hate it.”

#120 jess on 03.31.18 at 3:06 pm

depends on the “foreign” investments and what kind of jobs eh ;)

….”In 2016, anti-slavery advocates at the Polaris Project analyzed public information to identify human trafficking occurring in businesses fronting as massage parlors across the country. The inability to identify who owned or controlled the companies was a recurring challenge in every location. In Fairfax County alone, Polaris identified 108 illicit massage businesses that were connected to 181 corporations.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/my-law-degree-wasnt-meant-for-money-laundering-but-boy-it-would-make-it-easy/2018/03/29/f7cbfa4c-320b-11e8-8bdd-cdb33a5eef83_story.html?utm_term=.deb5373583e0

#121 Fake News Again on 03.31.18 at 3:07 pm

Funny how everyone “makes fun of Trump” as Canada circles the toilet bowl…..

#122 AB Boxster on 03.31.18 at 3:27 pm


Knowledge is the new oil. – #106 Brett on 03.31.18 at 12:05 pm

Canada’s strength is it’s resourcefullness, not its resources – T2 on whothefkcares at 1:00 pm

——————

What a massive load of shite.

#123 Spaccone on 03.31.18 at 3:38 pm

I can’t remember the source of a US “study” by a blog at the moment, but if it’s currently the same situation in Canada, it came to the conclusion that lower than normal household investment in mutual funds/stocks preceded a higher than average or healthy 10-year forward return (essentially on a graph equity investment by households was inversely related to future return).

They referenced the info quickly from the Fed website but not sure where you’d get the info in Canada.

#124 Ryan Lewenza on 03.31.18 at 4:12 pm

Sean Anderson “Ryan – there are a number of reasons why Canadian oil is trading at significant discount – it’s not of the same quality and the transportation economics don’t compare even if the pipeline is built.”

Yes our oil trades at a discount to WTI largely due to our higher sulfur content. But the discount is abnormally high right now (US$25/bl) and this is largely due to the lack of pipeline capacity. Basically with the oil sands projects now producing lots more oil we have not built out additional pipeline capacity to ship it with oil now stockpiling. It’s pretty simple to me. Oil demand continues to hit new all time highs yet we’re not doing enough to get it to market. Hence why I said “layup”. – Ryan L

#125 Ryan Lewenza on 03.31.18 at 4:23 pm

Two-Thirds “What seems to be lost on the discussion here today is how the total level of foreign investment has (not an overstatement) plummeted in recent history…What we are witnessing, according to Ryan’s chart, is international investors choosing better returns and a more welcoming treatment elsewhere. This is largely dictated by government policies that either encourage or discourage foreign capital to come to Canada, foster economic activity and the local jobs that come with it.”

Well said! It’s all the federal and provincial decisions in totality that are causing foreign investment to leave or be redirected from Canada. In AB we’ve seen a number of US and foreign oil companies sell assets and retrench from Canada due to new carbon taxes, increased regulations and lack of direction on pipelines. Nationally we’re dealing with higher personal income taxes and now a loss of competitiveness with the significant reduction in US corporate taxes. In ON we have high utility costs, significantly higher minimum wage, and now crazy spending proposed. When you put all that together, I understand why foreign investment is down. – Ryan L

#126 Tony on 03.31.18 at 4:42 pm

Re: #12 Mark on 03.30.18 at 5:27 pm

The U.S. stock market will tank the TSX for decades to come. No foreigners will buy anything Canadian due to the falling Canadian dollar.

#127 Gravy Train on 03.31.18 at 4:57 pm

#121 Fake News Again on 03.31.18 at 3:07 pm
“Funny how everyone ‘makes fun of Trump’ as Canada circles the toilet bowl…..”

I don’t think it’s Canada that’s circling the bowl! Have you not been following the news lately? Oh, that’s right, I forgot: You think it’s all fake! :)

#128 Mark on 03.31.18 at 4:57 pm

“#118 Joe on 03.31.18 at 2:49 pm
EM was tied to commodities once upon a time – now it has a huge tech sector driving returns.”

If you plot EWC versus VWO, for example (Canada and Emerging Markets, both normalized to USD$), neither have returned to their 2008 highs. So its not like either have been particularly helped a lot by whatever they’re exposed to. Canada’s non-participation in tech is rather unfortunate this time around, but unlike the early 2000s when tech was a heavy participant (by way of Nortel exposure in the TSX), a crash of the tech sector due to lack of profitability won’t destroy the TSX as it did in the early 2000s.

People buying the US stock market I think are a bit insane these days, especially when you can buy Canada, Emerging Markets, etc., for prices beneath those of 10 years ago. And with a lot of growth in their underlying/real economies since.

#129 Yvrmc on 03.31.18 at 5:16 pm

Re # 109. I agree with AW , why do we think anything is free ? It’s never without cost . Health care free, I think not. Child care free , who are you kidding it will cost a fortune . Free university ? WTF is wrong with you people ?! The left promises all this “free” stuff and you buy that shit !! We are sooooo doomed in this country with that kind of thinking …..

#130 Tony on 03.31.18 at 5:23 pm

Re: #54 TSX Hopeless? on 03.30.18 at 9:40 pm

If the U.S. stock market wasn’t rigged to the nth degree today we’d be looking at the TSX in the 3,000 to 4,000 range.

#131 Emcan on 03.31.18 at 10:59 pm

Ryan, love your posts. However, the detachment of Canada to EM is more based on the diversification of BRIC countries economies. Major EM holdings are increasingly non-resource stocks. The language and culture barrier of those countries gives them a step up on Canada. We really should be only investing about 15% of our portfolios in Canada.

#132 Ross whitney on 04.01.18 at 12:43 am

Cut every tree, suck every ounce of oil out of the ground. Pollute our world ,don’t think about future generations.As long as we make money now, who cares. ..It can’t be business as usual anymore.What if we ignored the science that told us cfc’s were destroying the ozone?

#133 Ryan on 04.01.18 at 1:45 pm

For the WCS/WTI spread, going back to 2009, see:
http://economicdashboard.alberta.ca/OilPrice

#134 Itis Simple on 04.01.18 at 9:35 pm

Canadians are unproductive, uncompetitive and make nothing that other countries can’t make. Weak economy. Hence poorly performing TSX. That simple.

#135 Doug in London on 04.03.18 at 2:13 pm

There are many reasons why the TSX hasn’t been a star performer, but one is quite simply that commodities are still in a slow period. Once again the time tunnel brings me back to 1998-2000 when the popular sentiment was no one wants rocks and trees. In the following decade, after the shine on tech stocks wore off (tech wreck, dot bomb, the NauseateDAQ) and the world economy picked up commodities were in the spot light again. Yes, the world did want rocks (including ones that contain oil) and trees again. Could it happen all over again? I wouldn’t rule it out, everything goes full circle.