Humans

Topher Brophy & Rosenberg

When human nature changes, so will markets. That hasn’t happened yet. And this explains a great deal about where we are.

So the maple economy is shrinking. The latest numbers, released Friday, surprised economists (like that’s hard) who had expected modest growth. Nope. Down she went. The culprits were a drop in oil production (prices were boggy) and a sharp decline in household spending and investment – mostly on real estate.

Realtors suffered a 13% plunge in activity. House sales slumped almost 20% across Canada. Mortgage originations crashed. But household debt continued to rise. And then, of course, the B20 stress test started to take effect, while Comrade Horgan began taxing the poop out of housing in BC.

So, the largest economic decline since 2015, after Canada had earlier led the G7 nations with explosive growth. It’s no coincidence our fat GDP number came in late 2016 and 2017 when the housing bubble was the most gaseous. Peak house brought historic prices, epic family debt levels and a surge in consumer buying. As I said – human nature. When mortgage rates were low and real estate values surging, FOMO kicked in, prompting people to drive property prices even higher, to borrow big, and spend large. That’s what economists call the ‘wealth effect.’ You think your house is inflating wildly, so you’re okay taking a HELOC or maxing your credit to buy stuff. After all, personal net worth is surging. Every homeowner’s a winner. Why not enjoy?

Well, FOMO is gone. Household spending is falling rapidly as people cut back. Real estate is going negative in most major markets. The trade picture with the US is cloudy. The dollarette is weak. And realtors are terrified.

“Seriously, I have never seen this before in my career,” says a broker-agent who’s been selling for the past decade. “A year ago buyers would take a few hours, at most, to come up with an offer. Now it’s weeks, literally, that they’ll spend thinking about things, and then come back with lowball stuff that shocks the sellers. And, yeah, they usually take it. Having said that, the buyers are almost gone”

Human nature often makes us do the opposite of what we should. When assets are rising, we covet them. When it comes to real estate, the more it costs the greater the house lust. Every silly price plateau becomes the next floor, allowing people to justify bully offers, multiple bids, blind auctions and over-asking deals. We put up with abrasive, arrogant rockstar realtors, greedy sellers, demands for $100,000 certified-cheque deposits and hours spent in cars idling outside while an owner decides who to shake down for more.

Without a doubt, people who succumbed to that paid too much, borrowed too greatly and roundly impaired their financial futures. Many felt regret, and walked. They’re now the sued. Owners who wanted to sell but didn’t out of fear for where they’d live missed the greatest opportunity in a generation (or more) to harvest unearned, untaxed windfall profits. More regret.

So now, the flip side. Sales activity has slowed to a crawl, and in most markets there are months and months’ worth of inventory available – thousands of listings from which to choose, with virtually no competition. Prices in some areas have already cratered 30% or more, and sellers grow increasingly motivated by the day. For detached homes (almost everywhere outside of a few isolated demand areas) there are no more multiple offers, no bully buyers, no blind auctions and no sleazy agent holding back bids to create maximum buyer stress.

In other words, this is purchaser heaven. A buyer’s market. Sale prices – even in crazed Vancouver – are almost always below the listing ask. Conditional offers are back – protecting buyers with assurances on home inspections and financing. If you make an offer, most often it will be the only one. The vendor – unless she’s a fool – will work with you instead of abusing and belittling you. In short, last spring was hell. This is puppy tummy.

But what happens?

Buyers retreat as prices and sales fall. The economy shrinks. The news travels. The meme spreads that houses are declining. The spiral intensifies. Making it worse – this is precisely the moment tough new mortgage regs take effect and politicians show up to bolt the barn door long after the horse has flown the coop (you know what I mean). The combination of Ontario’s new rent controls and foreign buyer’s tax, plus the mortgage stress test, Vancouver’s empty house tax plus BC’s 20% anti-Chinese tax, spec tax and luxury tax is too much to overcome. The market was rolling over anyway. Now it’s going paws-up.

This blog has teemed for years with snarky, whiny, self-absorbed, envious renters and malcontents who cheered market-killing politicians and prayed for the day they could buy without being forced into a bidding war. They were consumed with both FOMO and rage, supporting any and all government action they thought would punish ‘the rich’ homeowners, and level the field.

Well, kids, this is your moment.

Sales are down. Competition is gone. Mortgages still historically cheap. Sellers desperate. Prices tumbling. Realtors ripped. Bargains at last. You’ve moaned long enough. If you’ve wanted a single house, this could be the moment to try. Man up. Or shut up.

217 comments ↓

#1 Le Zouave on 03.29.18 at 6:55 pm

Not in Ottawa sadly…

#2 How much laundered money? on 03.29.18 at 6:56 pm

The lack of concrete action on money laundering makes Canada’s financial watchdog look like a “sheep’s mask on a wolf’s face,” B.C.’s attorney general told a federal parliamentary committee Tuesday.

Vancouver is the biggest money laundering hub in the entire world.

#3 Common Sense on 03.29.18 at 6:58 pm

Nah..too early to buy…wait at least another year if you can or until they start lower interest rates again.

We are only in the top half of the 1st.

#4 Common Sense on 03.29.18 at 6:58 pm

Happy Easter everyone….all the best!

#5 Anbang Money in Vancouver on 03.29.18 at 7:02 pm

Anbang Chairman in Court charged with $10B fraud, part of it perpetrated in Vancouver.

https://twitter.com/cduhaime/status/978968392311898112

#6 dakkie on 03.29.18 at 7:02 pm

DELETED

#7 Boombusr on 03.29.18 at 7:02 pm

HELP!

If there are any realtors out there who can post the daily REBGV stats for Metro Vancouver, please do so.

There has not been a lot of info lately re: Sales, Price Changes and overall Inventory Levels.

Thanks in advance!

#8 Stone on 03.29.18 at 7:04 pm

Well, kids, this is your moment.

Sales are down. Competition is gone. Mortgages still historically cheap. Sellers desperate. Prices tumbling. Realtors ripped. Bargains at last. You’ve moaned long enough. If you’ve wanted a single house, this could be the moment to try. Man up. Or shut up.

———

Bargains at last? Seriously? I think not. When prices drop 50%, give me a call and I’ll think about it. Otherwise, sellers can bugger off.

#9 Mattl on 03.29.18 at 7:06 pm

The folks that were on the sidelines 6 years ago waiting for a crash will continue waiting. They are going to have a hard time jumping into the market at the same prices they passed on years ago. That little voice inside their head will continue to tell them that houses are too expensive, same voice that told them that in 2012.

Mentally how do you pull the trigger now when you had the exact same opportunity years ago and couldn’t get it done. You have to believe that there is more to come, and many will miss the best buying opps. By the time they are readt, the market will have turned and they will be looking for gov to save them again.

#10 KingKouros6969 on 03.29.18 at 7:06 pm

This surely can’t be the time to buy a single detached house in Toronto…….maybe Saint John.

#11 r on 03.29.18 at 7:07 pm

U saying its a good time, I mean I can wait

#12 Joe on 03.29.18 at 7:07 pm

According to Zolo, the median detached house price in Mississauga is indeed inching down but is still $1.1 million. Meanwhile, the median two-income household makes around $85K. So the average house is 13 times the average income. Where are these deals of which you speak?

#13 Bibby on 03.29.18 at 7:08 pm

Yes, now houses in Toronto are finally so affordable I think I’ll buy two.

#14 Cautious Criticism on 03.29.18 at 7:08 pm

“The market was rolling over anyway. Now it’s going paws-up.”

I think most long time real estate bears will dismiss this perception of the market. The markets were ‘rolling over’ in 2012 and 2015 in the lower mainland and south vancouver island, only to see rekindled interest and massive price appreciation beyond reason. A interest rate cut here, new capital controls in China there pushing funds out, the flight of Albertans to BC with the collapse of high priced oil, and so on….

I would be cautious in calling this the end and think that B20 and provincal taxes and efforts to clamp down on money laundering and speculation will do anything.

In outlying communities from Victoria, prices are up close to 40% over the last two years, and rents up an equal amount (no, not the rent controlled increase, but actual increases between the same units when vacated)

No way those prices will retreat in a year. Prices are sticky on the way down, so those waiting will be paying nosebleed rents for years, which will be more than the lost equity from a price decline over several years. Its relatively simple math.

Sorry, but those waiting on the sidelines are losing out in many ways – first, they missed the run up and once in a life time price appreciation and capital gains; second, they missed out on security of tenure in the hot urban markets as rents skyrocketed and amateur landlords ran the show, free to rent for whatever and sell for whatever; and third, they are now stuck waiting years for a market melt in order to purchase something they likely could have purchased years ago.

Those waiting have likely waited a lifetime before the market softens to the point they can buy.

#15 Smartalox on 03.29.18 at 7:11 pm

This is a historic day: Garth is giving the ‘buy’ signal!

Not in response to a specific letter, stating particular circumstances, or like that time he told Canadians to buy America, when the Loonie was above par –

This is an honest to goodness, everyone who wants it, go buy it call for Canadian Real Estate.

About 6 months early, in my opinion, but hey: fortune favours the bold….

Now the aftermath. Will it be crickets, or a delighted fumbling of puppies as they hear the call for ‘Walkies’!

#16 Contrary Canadian on 03.29.18 at 7:12 pm

#3 – Common Sense

> Nah..too early to buy…wait at least another year if you can or until they start lower interest rates again.

Now that really is some common sense – all these measures don’t kick in right away – it’ll take at least another year before we see the full impact.

#17 Bob Dog on 03.29.18 at 7:13 pm

The worthless POS GoC should have let the market crash in 2008 instead of bailing out the criminal banking cartel.

When I see tent cities filled with arrogant home debtors evicted from their homes and realtors aimlessly marching up and down East Hastings looking for their next crack hit, that is when I will start making offers on crappy rundown homes in Vancouver.

I would love to see 25% unemployment in Canada. The stupid deserve their fate.

#18 Fuzzy Camel on 03.29.18 at 7:15 pm

Every house in my area is sold day of listing. No slow down, only the illusion of one. Immigration is too high and supply is too low.

Binder and Raj can’t get enough real estate, buy house, slap in a basement apartment, repeat.

#19 zee on 03.29.18 at 7:15 pm

Condo market is booming. How do you explain that?

#20 oncebittwiceshy on 03.29.18 at 7:18 pm

Garth: “Sales are down. Competition is gone. Mortgages still historically cheap. Sellers desperate. Prices tumbling. Realtors ripped. Bargains at last. You’ve moaned long enough. If you’ve wanted a single house, this could be the moment to try. Man up. Or shut up.”

<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Lol, sorry Garth but you called it. Nobody is buying at 10 – 30% off when next week, month, year it will be even cheaper.

70% of people own homes. The 30% that haven't bought either can't or won't. There will be some "vultures" but not nearly enough to stabilize the market.

We lived through the 80's and 90's and Canada watched the American housing implosion with smug indifference.

Apparently experience is the only teacher and we have done everything we can as Canadians to outdo the Americans.

We know how this will play out … significantly fewer sales, dropping prices, unemployment surge in the FIRE industry and finally the recession from hell.

Not what I want or you want but since when does Mr. Market care.

#21 jim on 03.29.18 at 7:19 pm

“Well, kids, this is your moment. Sales are down. Competition is gone. Mortgages still historically cheap. Sellers desperate. Prices tumbling. ”

Umm, no. Prices will fall further.

Part of it is regional, of course. For instance, look at the US housing decline. Prices in Seattle didn’t bottom until 2010, well after the peak in 2007. Miami and Sacramento hit dirt way before that.

I suspect, but cannot prove, that cities with economies that do not depend too much on real estate can hold out longer, since sellers can opt to wait it out.

The desirable areas of Toronto probably fit that bill, as there are enough well paid civil servants, lawyers, bankers, doctors (etc) to keep up.

I would not expect outlying areas to hold out and resist significant price drops. Hence, buying is a bad idea unless you wish to be underwater for some time.

The time to buy is when former homeowners run around cursing housing and warning young people against buying homes.

#22 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.29.18 at 7:20 pm

Buy now?
Nah.
Gonna wait at least a year and maybe vultch…..

#23 Plastic Nation on 03.29.18 at 7:24 pm

Perhaps we should me more concerned about this:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/garbage-recycling-china-plastics-canada-1.4586602

… and less concerned with our bank accounts, RRSPs, TFSAs, and which corrupt partisan is running our country/province. (And for all you Conservative voters who whine about NDP and Liberal mismanagement, I have 3 words for you: Phoenix Pay System)

The biospheres are collapsing, there is a plastic soup in the ocean 3 times the size of France, and not a single one of our parties gives a damn about anything but money and power.

You all know it’s true, deep down. Garth too…

#24 Baroque Moustache on 03.29.18 at 7:24 pm

Last time this happened in Edmonton, I jumped in too soon (October 2008), I even had FOMO of the rock bottom! I thought if I wait too long prices will spring up again. I learned that it takes years to recover, so don’t rush, boys and girls!

#25 Ardy on 03.29.18 at 7:25 pm

Garth,

Here in Turd-eww-stan it’s, “Person up, or please maybe shush slightly”

Happy Easter!

-RD

#26 Hold off buying for one year! on 03.29.18 at 7:27 pm

Don’t be tempted to buy this year, you will regret it next year when the crash has really sunk in. Today you might get 5 to -5 percent less than asking, dependingon location, next year the discount will be double or triple that. So, just keep renting fir another year and watch the crash unfolding.

#27 CEO Canadian Millenial on 03.29.18 at 7:27 pm

What about our Loonies? Will we have to pay Garth in $100 bills for ice cream? Where do we see the Loonie in Q4 2018, 2019, 2020 2021 and 2022?

#28 The Kitsilano Kid on 03.29.18 at 7:29 pm

I wish you were correct Garth – detached houses in westside Vancouver are plateauing at $3M – right at the NDP supertax level. Still way too expensive for the commoner. Maybe next year….

#29 Dolce Vita on 03.29.18 at 7:30 pm

“Friday, surprised economists (like that’s hard)”

2 thumbs up. THAT

#30 Reality is stark on 03.29.18 at 7:30 pm

So the land transfer tax they exploit to fund municipalities is about to take a big hit. Councillors who use that money to boost their salaries are not about to take a cut when the windfall disappears. Their job is to rip you off come hell or high water. It’s all about raping the taxpayer in this country.
And the people here are stupid enough to allow themselves to be raped.

#31 CEO Canadian Millenial on 03.29.18 at 7:34 pm

What happens to our savings if our Loonie falls to 40 cents? If Ryan Lewenza puts $100,000 in a Canadian bank account, it will be worth way less under a 40 cent Loonie. Many institutions in Canada don’t have CDIC insurance for US Dollar deposits.

#32 Oakville Stinks on 03.29.18 at 7:36 pm

Despite all you said Garth, there are still so many baphoons out there!

IE: townhome was just sold near me for $800,000; on a main road into the subdivision; with a hydro transformer in the front yard and for the price of a semi-detached! Sold price was $500 below asking!!! FOOLS!!!! Lots of dummies in Oakville!

#33 Dolce Vita on 03.29.18 at 7:37 pm

#9 zee

Because that’s all they can afford.

Give it a few more months. In a RE correction, the cheapest and smallest properties are last to correct.

You’ll know when all the cranes come down on the new high rise developments as they are mothballed or have a fire sale to break even, if they can.

Your shiny condo is about to lose value, sooner than you think.

#34 Nonplused on 03.29.18 at 7:37 pm

Well, I think the bubble was about to deflate even without all the government action. As always, the government always arrives just in time to make things worse.

#35 Camille on 03.29.18 at 7:39 pm

I’ll read this in the morning. Things are getting weird!

#36 Madcat on 03.29.18 at 7:40 pm

This is just the beginning… I cannot wait to see how things look in 2 years from now.

#37 Interstellar Old Yeller on 03.29.18 at 7:41 pm

Frighteningly, I’m with the rest of the steerage section on this, and surprised you’re already advising to buy. At even a 30% discount on buying our current rent deal is far more tempting.

All real estate is local. Seems everyone is forgetting that. – Garth

#38 MF on 03.29.18 at 7:41 pm

Gta prices down?

Last time I read (today) condos soared 20% y/y.

And rents are up.

MF

Where did I say ‘condo’? – Garth

#39 Zapstrap on 03.29.18 at 7:42 pm

I’ve seen “it” before out here on the west coast … and this ain’t “it” … not by a longshot.

#40 The Boulder on 03.29.18 at 7:44 pm

Yayy, Garth gave green signal, and I just bought a house. Was listed last november for 890k, I bargained for 770k. Walking to Go station, 40 mintues to Union station. 4 bedroom detach suburb. Seller still made huge profit, but was unhappy as he bought his new house last year. I feel for him.

Was worried that narket can still go down by another 10%, but when Garth says time to buy, can’t be another better time.

#41 Andrew Woburn on 03.29.18 at 7:45 pm

There’s gold in them there blockchains.

– Goldcorp deposits 3,000 ounces of gold in blockchain ‘milestone’

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-goldcorp-blockchain/goldcorp-deposits-3000-ounces-of-gold-in-blockchain-milestone-idUSKBN1H52QE

#42 Flint on 03.29.18 at 7:45 pm

I take it this means Poloz and Morneau are plotting to goose the market again, because we’re barely off the 2017 launch point, even in bedroom communities

#43 I’m stupid on 03.29.18 at 7:48 pm

Oh oh maybe a Tim’s short is in play.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/health/california-coffee-cancer-warnings-1.4599906

#44 Yorkville Renter on 03.29.18 at 7:49 pm

#9 Mentally how do you pull the trigger now when you had the exact same opportunity years ago and couldn’t get it done

assume they earn more $$$ and have saved more too… so there ya go

#45 Capt. Serious on 03.29.18 at 7:51 pm

Corollary: If for some reason you happen to own a house, and need to sell it to move for some reason, make sure you sell your house first before buying another one.

#46 Geraldo416 on 03.29.18 at 7:51 pm

Condo market booming. Detached still selling for a million. Not sure what you’re smoking Garth.

How can my message be so lost on people? The buying conditions are massively better than a year ago. – Garth

#47 Ford Prefect on 03.29.18 at 7:53 pm

The domain newhouseinfo.com, at bottom of Bill McSpadden realty sign above, is for sale.

Is this fact of any significance?

#48 Jimmy on 03.29.18 at 7:54 pm

The only thing really important is will there be any new ice cream flavors at the store?

Many. Open tomorrow. Show your GreaterFool decoder ring for free sprinkles. – Garth

#49 Dolce Vita on 03.29.18 at 7:56 pm

I agree with other Commenters on the wait part.

Historically, this year and next will be the large price drop years, followed by another 5 years of lower price drops as prices begin to stabilize.

7 years of hurt to come but worst of all will be the drop in Consumer spending – the latter will indeed hurt the economy.

Bad times. One way or the other, we will all suffer for it.

Human nature is a constant, why history repeats, over, and over, again.

I am surprised Garth that you resisted an Audi repossession side joke.

#50 the Jaguar on 03.29.18 at 7:58 pm

Garth
I hope your opening day is a huge success tommorow. I know it will be.
A while back at the end of one of your blogs you said “Money changes everything’. And that it took you a long time to learn that. It’s been bothering me. What did you mean?

It makes things worse. – Garth

#51 MF on 03.29.18 at 7:59 pm

Where did I say ‘condo’? – Garth

-You didn’t. But this article did:

http://business.financialpost.com/real-estate/toronto-morphs-into-new-monster-as-houses-slump-condos-soar

MF

Soon I will tell you children why condos are wealth traps. – Garth

#52 6thSense on 03.29.18 at 8:04 pm

Are you suggesting the prices have bottomed up already? A mere 12% decrease compared to last year’s insanely high prices is hardly a bargain.

As stated, it is now a buyer’s market in many areas. Go and bargain instead of reading realtor.ca under the covers. – Garth

#53 HouseBuster on 03.29.18 at 8:06 pm

Yeah great time – anything half decent is still over a million bucks!!!

#54 Blacksheep on 03.29.18 at 8:08 pm

“This blog has teemed for years with snarky, whiny, self-absorbed, envious renters and malcontents who cheered market-killing politicians and prayed for the day they could buy without being forced into a bidding war. They were consumed with both FOMO and rage, supporting any and all government action they thought would punish ‘the rich’ homeowners, and level the field.”

“Well, kids, this is your moment.”

“Sales are down. Competition is gone. Mortgages still historically cheap. Sellers desperate. Prices tumbling. Realtors ripped. Bargains at last. You’ve moaned long enough. If you’ve wanted a single house, this could be the moment to try. Man up. Or shut up.” -Garth
——————————–
I think Garth is saying buy now cause even if prices drop a bit more, rates may be up, so its a wash.

But of course most Vultchers will wait so they can bitch some more and miss out.

Garth is three steps ahead and knows this. When some dog queries a year from now, after the market has leveled and gone sideways (not up/not down) they will be told:

“Member when I told you to Buy?”

Seems greed works both ways…..

Human natures a bitch.

#55 -=jwk=- on 03.29.18 at 8:08 pm

@ #1

Not in Ottawa sadly…

it didn’t boom, so how could it bust? Prices flat for 10 years, and will be for 10 more…and that’s fine with me!

#56 SimplyPut7 on 03.29.18 at 8:09 pm

Prices are still too high, incomes in Ontario have not risen enough to justify asking home prices usually associated with multi-millionaires, billionaires, and Hollywood celebrities.

Once we’re back to pre-2014 prices when people didn’t believe Ontario was running out of land, foreigners would pay any ridiculous price for a home in Canada because we have “world-class” cities and interest rates would stay low forever. Then I may say the market is back to normal.

But we still have two problems in Ontario:
1) We are not building enough houses in the greater golden horseshoe valley at prices no more than 4 or 5 times the median family income level of the province. We don’t need 500 sq ft concrete boxes nor 5000 sq ft McMansions.

2) We don’t know what is the full effect of all of the local and domestic speculators who bought new under construction detached homes, townhouses and condos as well as flipped homes that sit vacant waiting for buyers.

The second point along with the shadow banking and syndicated mortgages will be a challenge for the next government in Ontario to manage.

#57 yyzer on 03.29.18 at 8:11 pm

Well, kids, this is your moment.

Sales are down. Competition is gone. Mortgages still historically cheap. Sellers desperate. Prices tumbling. Realtors ripped. Bargains at last. You’ve moaned long enough. If you’ve wanted a single house, this could be the moment to try. Man up. Or shut up.
_______________________________________

I can’t believe this advice! If this is what we’ve been waiting for, we’re paying dearly for the wait. I don’t know about the burbs, but in Toronto itself prices haven’t come down. Yes, houses aren’t flying off the shelf and some sit and sit (mainly bad ones or bad location), but inventory is still quite low. The half-decent houses are going for asking and the quarter-decent ones are going above asking.

At this rate we’ll be with Vancouver in no time. And this is even before Ford rolls back the foreign buyer tax etc. Crazy.

I did not say urban 416, and patiently explained previously why this would not be the case. Were you ill that day? – Garth

#58 Newcomer on 03.29.18 at 8:11 pm

…prayed for the day they could buy without being forced into a bidding war.
———

Seems an odd thing to pray for. Bidding wars are fine by me, as long as the starting price is a bargain and the other bidders have less money than I do. A fella ought to put a little thought into his prayer.

#59 Why buy? on 03.29.18 at 8:12 pm

“Prices tumbling. Realtors ripped. Bargains at last.”

This is a bit hypocritical. By your own rule of 90, and your own calls that RE is over priced years ago, today’s prices are still too expensive to buy for the average family.

Look, for example, at an average GTA family which is trying to keep your advice of not sinking their full net worth into their house. A short 4-5 years ago a 500k house would have been too expensive, and you already (rightfully) called it that way. This house went to over 1M and now came down to 700k. It is still too expensive.

Those who chose rent over ownership in 2013 or 2014 due to unfavorable rent/ownership cost analysis will surely reach the same conclusion today.

Those who will buy today but not in back in 2016 will fall foul of your same analysis for the same price back in 2015.

If the average house was worth X on the way up and your opinion was it is overpriced, then it went up, and now it is back to X on the way down, why is it not still overpriced? Why has the advice changed? Is there anything materially favorable in buying in early 2018 compared to late 2016? Prices are about the same.

#60 Toronto1 on 03.29.18 at 8:13 pm

Garth- bold move…….

Still to early but may be not enough to matter………. time will tell.

I saw the US market implode first hand as I was doing weekly travel there at that time in my career

my own opinion, much to early still- if your buying this year, wait until Oct-Nov-Dec- by that time what froth is left will be long gone- mortgage origination’s will be at much lower then now, many homes will have been listed twice by that point with no offers and some real fear will be present.

watch interest rates and inter bank lending rate. We are setting up for a very rough ride here, US will keep raising as their economy is hot right now, Canada will have no choice but too follow, depressing an already stall market.

i agree with # 49 Dolce- bigger price drops yet to come before it levels off but prices are not going for a while so it really doesnt matter

#61 Flamed out in Kitchener on 03.29.18 at 8:14 pm

Now back to the dogs …

You already knew this; but here’s more proof.

You’re welcome.

Happy Easter and Belfountain Store season Garth!

https://www.inverse.com/article/42733-why-do-dogs-love-us-science-explains

#62 Whatcha Minnie on 03.29.18 at 8:15 pm

I’m visiting a friend in Austin, Texas with another friend. I haven’t seen either of them since New Years and I’ve never been to Texas. I’m excited to see my friends, eat lots of good BBQ, and finally see what it’s like down south!

#63 Dead Cat Bounce on 03.29.18 at 8:15 pm

116 New Listing by South Okanagan Real Estate Board in last 2 days
http://www.soreb.org/DoHotSheet?table=mls

#64 will on 03.29.18 at 8:19 pm

Decoder ring images:

https://www.google.ca/search?q=decoder+ring&hl=en&dcr=0&prmd=ivns&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjKh_j14ZLaAhVGw2MKHVwJCwkQ_AUIBigB

#65 AK on 03.29.18 at 8:19 pm

“Seriously, I have never seen this before in my career,” says a broker-agent whose been selling for the past decade. “”
——————————————————————–
A member of a generation that believe interest rates will be near zero forever…

#66 Jimbo on 03.29.18 at 8:19 pm

I was able to reduce the ask by 50k on the new house we purchased last week. It was asking for 900k, for a 3000 sqft home in Pickering. Earlier in January, the same type of house sold for 950k in the same neighbourhood!

#67 Mountain_camper_in_tent on 03.29.18 at 8:25 pm

I’m thinking of buying a brand new townhome in South Calgary as rental property.I think this is the bottom in house price in Calgary…it will be stable going forward,or may even go up if economy improves a bit.

You cannot make money on a SFH rental. Especially in Calgary. – Garth

#68 MF on 03.29.18 at 8:26 pm

Soon I will tell you children why condos are wealth traps. – Garth

We (34 year old children) know why already.

We know about ever rising maintenance fees, special assessments, property taxes, dogs barking, sex sounds from the walls, strange smells in the hallway, and everything else.

Condos should be cheaper in reality but they are not.

That’s because our central bank is still incompetent, the Liberal government measures were an expected failure, the gta is booming, and “Millennials” are still house horny.

Most people think OSFI is a term describing the lesbian/gay/transsexual community.

MF

Condos cost too much because you keep buying them. Dumb. – Garth

#69 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 03.29.18 at 8:29 pm

All real estate is local. Seems everyone is forgetting that. – Garth
………………..

Real estate is not “local” any more. If it was, the average locals could afford to buy average family homes in their own home towns. With the advent of globalization and the internet and being able to move money with the click of a mouse and with tax free capital gains for foreign speckers and money launderers, the Canadian housing market has become international, not local.

I give up. Have a nice snit. – Garth

#70 Dave on 03.29.18 at 8:30 pm

You’re telling us this is time to buy after many have waited in the sidelines for years watching prices go mad and now is time to buy?

I said better than last year. Do we have a hearing problem here tonight? – Garth

#71 Lawnboy on 03.29.18 at 8:32 pm

Fore Sale :

Complete set of “ Sing Along with Conny Stephans “ 8 tracks . Comes with player and attached Ford Pinto…..please …No TEST Pilots!!!!

7.8492748 Bitcoin or best offer.

#72 Leo Trollstoy on 03.29.18 at 8:35 pm

“Seriously, I have never seen this before in my career,” says a broker-agent whose been selling for the past decade. “A year ago buyers would take a few hours, at most, to come up with an offer. Now it’s weeks, literally, that they’ll spend thinking about things, and then come back with lowball stuff that shocks the sellers. And, yeah, they usually take it.”

This coincided with the 2017 peak in real estate prices

I called it

You’re welcome

#73 Reximus on 03.29.18 at 8:39 pm

The smart move IMHO is into the lower priced freehold neighborhoods of downtown 416, like E02, get a decent semi/town before all the condo refugees grab em up

Many of them now have decent equity in their apts, and can no longer stand them, or just can’t fit their lives in them any longer…this trend has already begun

#74 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 03.29.18 at 8:43 pm

As stated, it is now a buyer’s market in many areas. Go and bargain instead of reading realtor.ca under the covers. – Garth
……………………

What areas are those ? Are there jobs there ? Are prices under 5 x family incomes ? Inquiring minds want to know……..

Inquiring minds with time to waste being a blog harpy can find out. – Garth

#75 LivinLarge on 03.29.18 at 8:44 pm

“How can my message be so lost on people?”…rhetorical question right????

#76 MF on 03.29.18 at 8:45 pm

Condos cost too much because you keep buying them. Dumb. – Garth

Rents have increased too. This is not because we keep paying it, but because there is a demand for units.

MF

#77 Stone on 03.29.18 at 8:46 pm

#51 MF on 03.29.18 at 7:59 pm
Where did I say ‘condo’? – Garth

-You didn’t. But this article did:

http://business.financialpost.com/real-estate/toronto-morphs-into-new-monster-as-houses-slump-condos-soar

MF

Soon I will tell you children why condos are wealth traps. – Garth

—————

That one is easy. For the masses of morons buying concrete coffins in the sky who haven’t figured it out (and yes, I realize there are many), they will soon come to realize what a horrible mistake they have made. Just look at older condos for sale and then explain why you wouldn’t go near them with an offer to purchase. New condos become older condos over time, believe it or not. It’s not an urban legend. LOL

#78 For those about to flop... on 03.29.18 at 8:49 pm

Pink Pollen falling in Richmond.

While you guys talk about what you think is going on ,I’m gonna keep on showing you the real ,verifiable information that you need.

These guys just took another 100k off and they are now asking 1.89

They are on the hook for 2.15 and the latest assessment comes in at 2.05

Another one a few doors down in trouble as well…

M43BC

7720 Malahat Ave,Richmond.

Paid 2.15 April 2017

Were Asking 2.09

Then 1.99

Now 1.89

https://www.zolo.ca/richmond-real-estate/7720-malahat-avenue

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDA1V1pZSA==

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Feel free to make a donation.

Flop For Fox Fund…

http://www.terryfox.org/get-involved/ways-to-give/

#79 Here for a baloney sandwitch on 03.29.18 at 8:50 pm

When RE last crashed in the GTA in 1989 – it did not bottom till 1996. Interest rates are sill going up. Corrupt chinese bureaucrats are not going to rescue the RE market – esp in the soul-less burbs of 905.

#80 joblo on 03.29.18 at 8:57 pm

One more sleep until Belfountain General store opens :)
Yippee!
Yum!

#81 Old gringo on 03.29.18 at 9:01 pm

Sorry Garth , but need to disagree with your statement, now may be a time to buy.
The blood has not even started to run yet!
When it gets knee deep, then it starts to get interesting.
Looking for an entry point 30-40% down from here,
Let’s see who’s right.
OG

It’s not a contest. I said buying conditions today are vastly improved. – Garth

#82 Reynolds531 on 03.29.18 at 9:04 pm

When I was in University I worked at a bike shop. There was a kid who hung around constantly. At ten years old, he couldn’t buy a bike, so we put him to work and built him one from scrap.
When I graduated, my first job was at CIBC. Part of my job was doing potential reversals…. deciding which cheques to bounce. This same kids dad was a real estate agent. I bounced a ton of this guy’s cheques in 1995.
Some of these agents are not going to make it.

#83 Financial Orchid on 03.29.18 at 9:05 pm

But Uncle Garth! Now everyone is waiting it out to see if it’ll fall SOME MORE before getting in.

Unless they’re pregnant.

#84 Ustabe on 03.29.18 at 9:07 pm

I’m thinking of buying a brand new townhome in South Calgary as rental property.I think this is the bottom in house price in Calgary…it will be stable going forward,or may even go up if economy improves a bit.

You cannot make money on a SFH rental. Especially in Calgary. – Garth

well you can…but it takes years. We had a small string of Calgary rentals, took us almost 15 years to be cash flow positive as we accumulated, profitable after 20.

Fast forward another almost 20 years and we held two commercial units in a strata building, one legal duplex, one existing, non conforming duplex, 2 what you call Executive Rentals and 7 SFH.

Partner (brother) accidentally passed, I sold out just before the oil crisis. After tax lawyers/accountants/CRA had their way I pocketed loads of money.

but it took almost 4 decades. Folks don’t think that far out but I’ll tell you this…I am active, healthy and ruggedly handsome. I have given away almost 1.5 this past couple of years and still have more than we need.

Real estate is a long game. My home of 20 years just went up almost $150,000 over the last two years.

#85 ToonTownStud on 03.29.18 at 9:07 pm

If it was announced that the Canadian economy is shrinking, why did my Canada All Cap Index ETF go up 1.4% today?

#86 Mark on 03.29.18 at 9:09 pm

https://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/interest-rates/canadian-bonds/

Holy moly, look at how close the CAD$ GoC bond yield curve is to inversion.

Unless CPI has a nasty print to the upside, the next move of the BoC is most likely down.

#87 Pete from St. Cesaire on 03.29.18 at 9:11 pm

40 The Boulder on 03.29.18 at 7:44 pm
Yayy, Garth gave green signal
——————————————————————–
If you take it as Garth giving the signal to buy. I just see it as Garth trying to minimize the destruction that lies ahead through softening the landing by encouraging some sales so as to avert a non-existent, stalemate, no-trades market followed by a total collapse.
I say bring on the total collapse; they’ll never be tempered until they’ve been through the fire.

#88 Sitting on the toilet thinking on 03.29.18 at 9:12 pm

Garth I totally agree with you, if you wanted to buy the conditions are a hell of a lot better today than last year. But a year from I’m guessing everyone will be able to see who was swimming naked. I started a site a couple of weeks ago for one of the biggest builders in Canada 190 houses were planned but they only sold 22. The builder has shut down the sales office. I’ve also done model homes in Richmond hill for another very large builder as the construction manager told me they haven’t sold 1 house yet and another builder in the queensville area is struggling to even close house because people are walking away. I’ve read something that the 8% of gta works in construction, what happens when there’s very little work how are these people going to pay their bills. That’s when I think things get very interesting.

#89 AACI Homedog on 03.29.18 at 9:12 pm

I agree Garth, all real estate is local. IMO you should mention where that 10 year realtor is talking about. I assume Ontario ?

GTA. You know, The Centre. – Garth

#90 meslippery on 03.29.18 at 9:14 pm

This just in.. Dogs respond more positively to dog-directed speech (DDS).

https://www.inverse.com/article/42733-why-do-dogs-love-us-science-explains

#91 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 03.29.18 at 9:16 pm

Inquiring minds with time to waste being a blog harpy can find out. – Garth
………………….
har·py
ˈhärpē/Submit
nounGREEK & ROMAN MYTHOLOGY
a rapacious monster described as having a woman’s head and body and a bird’s wings and claws or depicted as a bird of prey with a woman’s face.
………………..
Seriously ? Name calling now ?

#92 When Will They Raise Rates? on 03.29.18 at 9:17 pm

Not yet… I’m waiting for blood.

#93 Eco Capitalist on 03.29.18 at 9:17 pm

Anyone selling their decoder ring? I want free sprinkles!

#94 palebird on 03.29.18 at 9:23 pm

There sure are some delusional people on here. Libor has been steadily increasing and it is not about to stop. And that is what directly influences interest rates on mortgages and loans, people. Not the government. Within another six months a lot of people in Canada will be in serious financial trouble. And it will get a lot worse before it gets better. The domino effect ya know. See what that does to the almighty real estate market.

#95 Asterix1 on 03.29.18 at 9:27 pm

Way too soon to buy anything in GTA at the moment for single detached! Condos are also next to crash in this pyramid.

Garth is right, its a great moment. But the best moment has yet to come. Its going to get extremely ugly in the near future.

#96 Pete on 03.29.18 at 9:33 pm

It sounds like you’ve been influenced by TREB. I spend lots of time each week comparing 2018 solds to 2016 solds, and they’re not where you think they are. DO NOT BUY NOW. When semis that sold for $400k in 2016 and $300k in 2015 are selling for $650k (untouched) in 2018, prices in GTA have not moved very much in that segment.

What you’re seeing is the $1.5M to $3M market reacting the most at this time. No trickle down yet!

Once again, I said all real estate is local, and urban 416 will not see the declines that have already occurred elsewhere. Sheesh. Where are my crayons…? – Garth

#97 Debtslavecreator on 03.29.18 at 9:34 pm

In most GTA areas new mortgage apps are Down dramatically
9 out of 12 branches in a Toronto region are nowhere close to making the mortgage / HELOC target at a major bank
At another bank mortgage apps are down 25-30%
Story is the same in most branches
Geeks and looks like spring 2008
Very good chance we are in early recession now with a serious financial crisis evident by Q4 and into 2029
In most areas I would wait at least until Feb next year and in s cases not before November 2018
Be careful out there – real chance at another 10-15 % drop in mosh areas from today’s prices with a chance at 20-25 in many areas
Job losses are starting and will accelerate big time

#98 Debtslavecreator on 03.29.18 at 9:36 pm

Feels and looks like 2008
Crisis into 2019
I need to slow down

#99 AlMac on 03.29.18 at 9:40 pm

Jeezus Garth, this post sounds a bit unhinged. Let us just take a breath and see where things go with real estate. You would counsel the same with the current volatile stock markets no?

How much Canada in the old portfolio now eh? Ready to rebalance but buy more maple…don’t know right now.

#100 april on 03.29.18 at 9:50 pm

From a wealth manager and portfolio manager, regarding real estate ” The sign that it might be over to watch for … banks forcing people to sell… banks selling homes they’ve taken over by foreclosure or power of sale, also watch for companies in the real estate business and lenders to go into bankruptcy”.

#101 Franco on 03.29.18 at 9:57 pm

Here in PTBO houses do not stay up for sale for very long. So if you want to buy you better do it soon or you will have to move in the boonies if you want to afford a house.
Population of the GTA will only increase dramatically over the next few decades. Listen to Garth, this is the time to buy and you may not get another chance.

#102 jane24 on 03.29.18 at 9:59 pm

Gosh Garth, brave move here. The line that resonated with me was your realtor friend saying that a year ago folk brought a million plus house with no conditions and only a couple of hours of thinking. How crazy is that! Reminds me of the late 1970’s condo townhouse boom where poor families went out for an ice cream and came home with a new townhouse due to govt incentives at the time and you and I know how that turned out a decade later. Once the special mortgage deals expired many lost their homes as they really couldn’t afford them in the first place. Such townhomes were thrown up quickly and have not aged well, all aluminum wiring and no insulation. Buying a home should take several weeks of thinking and heavy math before the offer goes in. Plus why catch a falling knife, if the house you are interested in will be cheaper next month. You wait.

Chatted to a friend who is a RE broker in Markham. He said that the overseas Chinese tap there is totally turned off and the market is dead as homes there are currently unaffordable for locals. Sounds like these homes will soon be affordable again. I like Markham, well located.

The interesting story will indeed be all the idiots who were too late in the game and have brought future new builds with the idea of flipping for unearned gains. Probably have already spent the promised loot too. A lot of hurt in the pipeline for them. I wonder how exactly many propose to close their deal from two years ago.

#103 Nic on 03.29.18 at 10:03 pm

Like other readers I was surprised by the advice to buy. But perhaps you meant downtown core SFH, that have seen a decline but wont see much more. Because the declines havent yet spread to the burbs and those would be more substantial?

#104 NOSTRADAMUS on 03.29.18 at 10:08 pm

BONE PICKERS.
The secret to a restful night, pay down your heavy debt load in the good times. In the bad times you will be forced to do things you wouldn’t have believed you were capable of. But all is not lost , ease your mind lost soul. There is always the confessional on Saturday night at the local church. Bend a knee, confess your sins and start afresh Sunday morning. No need to feel guilty for those you have buried to stay afloat. You will be forgiven by a higher authority. However, down here on earth, your banker and creditors will not be so quick to forgive. Picking Bones is an old Victorian saying. When a man has been laid to rest, in your case (tapped out) the bankers and creditors will start Picking Bones, fighting over the last of your earthly assets. Soon a great number of debt slaves will experience the cold boney hands of the Bone Pickers.

#105 Keith in Rio on 03.29.18 at 10:09 pm

He who opens their mouth first loses…….keep it shut.

Prices are still going to keep declining, for years in fact, there’s no stopping it.

#106 Biff on 03.29.18 at 10:11 pm

It will be interesting watch this market turn into a Dutch auction in the coming years. Great post.

#107 John on 03.29.18 at 10:11 pm

“Once again, I said all real estate is local, and urban 416 will not see the declines that have already occurred elsewhere. Sheesh. Where are my crayons…? – Garth”

Lol. It shows you the intelligence and reading comprehension of your blog audience Garth.

#108 YoSouth on 03.29.18 at 10:21 pm

Garth,
I admire you but sometime you r totally disconnected with reality. Earth to Garth…
“This is the moment” WRONG!

#109 Asterix1 on 03.29.18 at 10:23 pm

National Post tries to print an article about RE in GTA and reality. They got the title kind of right, the rest is pure garbage thanks to useless quotes from the RE industry.

“Toronto morphs into whole new ‘monster’ as houses slump and condos soar”
http://business.financialpost.com/real-estate/toronto-morphs-into-new-monster-as-houses-slump-condos-soar#comments-area

Quotes from:
– Beth O’Donoghue, a sales representative at Brad J. Lamb Realty
– Patrick Rocca, a real estate agent at Bosley Real Estate Ltd
– according to Bank of Montreal economists.
– Christopher Alexander, regional director at real estate firm Re/Max Integra.
– Simeon Papailias, co-founder of the Real Estate Center

It’s just pathetic! And sad….(and should be illegal)

#110 What I think I know on 03.29.18 at 10:23 pm

“You’ve moaned long enough. If you’ve wanted a single house, this could be the moment to try. Man up. Or shut up.” – Garth

—————————————————-

Nope. The moment to BUY was several years ago. Like between 2009 and 2014. Now is just an OK moment to buy. Regardless, in 10 years time, all GTA housing will be worth much more than today. So, it’s definitely OK to proceed with no fear.

My context was today vs last spring, as stated. Try not to be a dick. – Garth

#111 Samuel on 03.29.18 at 10:33 pm

If prices are down 10 to 30% in some areas and you have the opportunity to negotiate someone down another 10%…You may be purchasing for the same $$$ as waiting out a slow melt.

#112 Mark on 03.29.18 at 10:37 pm

@ #55 -=jwk=-

with all due respect, you are living under a rock (or not in Ottawa) if you think prices haven’t boomed here. sure maybe not as much as Toronto or van. but for prices to nearly double over the last 10-15 years, in a city full of federal drones whose incomes track inflation (or less than, in most cases), how in earth can anyone see that as sustainable and normal?

#113 morrey on 03.29.18 at 10:39 pm

too early to buy. wait ’til june/july

#114 tccontrarian on 03.29.18 at 10:40 pm

Like someone else mentioned above, we’re in the 1st inning of the housing correction (aka ‘crash’, in certain markets). When the news is that ‘jingle-mail’ is becoming a common occurence, I will consider being on the buy side. Until then, stay on the short side (by renting).

Speaking of ‘shorts’ – I see that the beloved FAANG’s are getting less love these days. If Tesla rebounds to the $290-300 level, I’m doubling down on my short position.
There are some who think this may actually go to “0”. I’m a bit more optimistic than this – I cover at $100!

TCC

#115 ANON on 03.29.18 at 10:44 pm

Only human. Neither stupid (for all the claims of rationality we do not truly comprehend the very principles our civilization is based upon: mathematics, the laws of thermodynamics, scientific method -yes, I’m looking at you dude Viscount St Alban=) nor desperate (yet, but that’s coming fast).

#116 Dzh on 03.29.18 at 10:51 pm

MF – definitionally the rents are up because we are willing pay them. It’s on us that we don’t leave the city and drive down demand. Pathetic lack of entrepreneurial spirit here… we devote it all to RE.

Garth – I think you’re just worried about the overall economy and just want us renters to buy to prevent contagion of sorts; no way you actually think now is the time to buy / catch a falling knife!

To those knocking the perma-bears: my income is now double and my savings about 2-3x higher than when I first declined to buy. This is why I can afford to either wait out a crash in GTA and vultch hard, or just move to the US for a 3:1 mortgage to income, much nicer if not completely new house with world class health care and a 401k match which I don’t get here… either way my quality of life is better not being scared of rate increases, an NDP government, rising property taxes, further cuts to pay in my field. And I can afford to give my kids top quality education along the way.

#117 burnaby guy on 03.29.18 at 11:04 pm

To Mark the 2013 peak RE guy –

Here is another proof Garth disagrees with you – Garth wrote –
” It’s no coincidence our fat GDP number came in late 2016 and 2017 when the housing bubble was the most gaseous. Peak house brought historic prices ”

Nobody believes Canadian RE peak in 2013 except that Mark 2013 peak RE guy and that Ross Who guy with their sales mix theory. I am waiting for a long reply from Mark so I can quickly scroll pass.

#118 NoName on 03.29.18 at 11:05 pm

@flop and san diego

I’ve never been to san diego but few people i know went there and all of them mentioned zoo. Somewhere on my bucket list is to take pacific coast highway, start with visit to my childhood friend in seattle and turn around when we hit the border to mexico, i cant go in we just beat them in soccer other day. Until then ill just keep daydreaming and going thru pages of Moon Pacific Coast Highway Road Trip.

Few yrs back wife’s highschool friend and her family came over from san diego, everything they sad about sd was nice, but they did complain bit about re prices, and all to consider that both of them are RN, wife is kaiser nurse and dude works as rn at department of correctional services.

what 1.5m buys you in san
https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/14825-Whispering-Ridge-Rd-92131/home/12153099

and what 1.5m buys you in yyz
https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/19231353/3671-W-11-AVENUE-Vancouver-British-Columbia-V6R2K4

#119 Tony on 03.29.18 at 11:12 pm

Everything comes down to Donald Trump and tariffs. If he slaps tariffs big time on the rest of the world interest rates will go skyward in America even with the criminals and shysters trying to manipulate bond yields lower to save the stock market. This is what to watch for in the near future because of the spillover effect pushing up Canadian interest rates.

#120 Tony on 03.29.18 at 11:21 pm

Re: #111 Samuel on 03.29.18 at 10:33 pm

Long term 30 to 50 years out homes should be one of the worst if not the worst possible investment choices. Virtually everything sets up as a negative for housing for at least the next several decades.

#121 Linda on 03.29.18 at 11:23 pm

Comments today are hilarious & underline Garth’s point about herd mentality. Most are variations on won’t buy now or don’t buy now, wait for prices to fall X% or the sun to rise in the west or the alignment of the stars etc., etc.

I strongly expect that the envious will still end up not purchasing even if prices drop 50% or more, either because their finances are still not robust enough to purchase even with that price reduction or because they are now trying to time the market.

One thing that does puzzle me is why people use their property to pile on more debt when they have no intention of actually selling. Seems to me they use the rise in property values as an excuse to justify making poor financial choices. Then when the bubble bursts they expect sympathy & for someone else to bail them out of the hole they dug. Delusional to say the least.

#122 You said it! on 03.29.18 at 11:29 pm

(And for all you Conservative voters who whine about NDP and Liberal mismanagement, I have 3 words for you: Phoenix Pay System)
_______________________________________

If only there were emojis here…. this would get 2 thumbs up from me!

#123 Tony on 03.29.18 at 11:29 pm

Re: #15 Smartalox on 03.29.18 at 7:11 pm

None of the debt in Canada has even unwound. Canadian still has the highest debt ratios in the entire world. In theory this would still be the worst time to buy a home. Only the east coast cities and smaller cities in Alberta would be places to even consider but still debt has to unwind first.

#124 SinCity on 03.29.18 at 11:30 pm

#110
“Nope. The moment to BUY was several years ago. Like between 2009 and 2014. Now is just an OK moment to buy. Regardless, in 10 years time, all GTA housing will be worth much more than today. So, it’s definitely OK to proceed with no fear.”

Yes, 2009 to 2014 was a great time to buy in the GTA, but in 10 years time properties will NOT be worth more. The next best time to buy will start in 2020, when a 5 year mortgage will be at 5% and many mortgages that were under 3% will come due.

Many of you might not realize it, but power of sales have already entered our market in the GTA. Markham, Scarborough, Brampton, Vaughan, Barrie, Whitby and Sharon are places that have active power of sale listings.

#125 oncebittwiceshy on 03.29.18 at 11:34 pm

Oh, yes, there is a long way to go yet.

http://vancitycondoguide.com/detached-home-flipping-10-year-low/

“Meanwhile, credit unions have failed to replace the hole left by the big banks following the B-20 mortgage stress test. Per Northcove Advisors analyst Ben Rabidoux on Twitter, “If credit unions are providing a workaround to B-20, it’s sure not showing up in the data yet. Annualized mortgage growth from the end of 2017 is 1/3 that of the banks.”

#126 NotLegalAdvice on 03.29.18 at 11:38 pm

“That’s what economists call the ‘wealth effect.’ You think your house is inflating wildly, so you’re okay taking a HELOC or maxing your credit to buy stuff.”

——-> sort of like people mortgaging their homes to buy bitcoin, or maxing their credit cards on it! Not anymore though!

“You’ve moaned long enough. If you’ve wanted a single house, this could be the moment to try. Man up. Or shut up.”

——-> You sure it’s the right time to man up?! I think it’s a better time now than 4 months ago, but there are several drops to come! Feds increased interest rates last week, we’ll do the same in May. When that happens, wait another 6 months and bam!

#127 Rifles on 03.29.18 at 11:39 pm

“Seriously, I have never seen this before in my career,” says a broker-agent who’s been selling for the past decade.

A whole decade in a one way market? Why does this count as a revelation?

#128 Missed Opportunities on 03.29.18 at 11:41 pm

Oh, how anti-climatic.

After a decade of commentary on the dangers of an overheated market with inflated values, the buy signal has been given here. Prices have doubled and tripled over 10 years and just recently gave up maybe 10-20%, and now is the time to buy? Seriously?

For ten years it was wait, be patient because interest rates would rise; mortgage rules were changed; new amortization and down payment changes; the moister killing B20 rules would whack the market. And now, before B20 is even felt (since there are 2 days left of pre-approvals), the buy signal is given?

I guess all the realtors, developers and real estate pumpers were right. All the angst ridden and jealous renters hoping for a crash were so very wrong for all these years. If now is the time to buy, then those life long renters have wasted money and missed out on a once in a lifetime capital gains that have cemented the divided betweent he haves and have nots.

#129 NEVER GIVE UP on 03.29.18 at 11:43 pm

I need another 30% to 40% from today before scooping up!

Seriously thinking of moving to France or California! At least we are talking.

I also do not want to wait forever.

Quality of life here has declined tremendously.
Cost of living is out of control and time spent in car is a human torture worse than waterboarding!

#130 NotLegalAdvice on 03.29.18 at 11:46 pm

Soon I will tell you children why condos are wealth traps. – Garth

——-> it’s funny you say this. When I was articling for a real estate firm, the amount of upset condo owners we had was ridiculous. These old condo’s require repairs and the management company isn’t going to let owners off easy. I had a group of condo owners approach our firm because they were upset at being charged 5 grand to help with building repairs. “How is the management company allowed to do this! This is illegal!”. Actually, no its not illegal, it’s just the nature of the game. Read your status certificate people.

#131 Hamsterwheelie on 03.29.18 at 11:49 pm

Sure, prices are a tumblin but just try and self declare or get anyone to finance you under the new rules. Prices may drop but regs just got way tighter for the self employed, edge clingin’ types who aren’t on the sunshine list. Time to get a government job if you want to get a house.

#132 Alberta Ed on 03.30.18 at 12:03 am

Will Mr. Dressup apologize for this?

#133 paulo on 03.30.18 at 12:10 am

Yes, this might be a good time to have a good look at the
real estate market. only and provided you are looking primarily for a home for your family with a long term horizon,and not looking at a quick flip or short term investment. also provided you have the coin for the down stroke,not borrowed and can meet the b20 standards.
so get your pre approval post April first,thous making you a minority,a purchaser with funding in place. negotiate from the prospective of being a buyer in a buyers market. play hard but fair keeping in mind that your seller is facing a declining market,likely for years to come,coupled with raising interest rates also likely for the foreseeable future.
you need to do the math concerning near term interest rate advantage vs. declining values.
bottom line is that a major correction in real estate
will have significant impact on the economy, just as the run up in values powered the economy forward,a major blow out in re values will tank the economy.
not withstanding the head winds i think most are hoping that a orderly correction will take place and reasonable balance will be achieved. i am thinking the next 6 month’s will be telling but there will be many casualties on the road.

#134 Stan Brooks on 03.30.18 at 12:19 am

Hey, what happened to that plumber and doctor tax killing whizz ‘star’ financial minister managing the economy?
Oh, sorry, he was busy introducing (his) business friendly (tax and pension) laws that screw everyone else. And french villa vacations.

Economy shrinking? Of course.
All the ‘growth’ was based on credit.

It is one thing to inherit daddy’s business and marry billionaire heiress and another to run a country’s economy.

Now the other whizz at BOC will use this as an excuse not to raise rates and down they go in tandem – the economy and the loonie. Inflationary depression unfolding at the worse time of trade wars and tariffs.

Housing? Who would care about that when people loose jobs and start depending on food banks?

At least the socks boy’s carbon tax is working, it seems global warming is defeated.

fun 20 years ahead.

#135 Understood, but... on 03.30.18 at 12:22 am

We understand that all you did was compare this year’s conditions to last year’s. What makes less sense in light of your earlier writings is why you encourage people to start entering the market now, instead of waiting this out another year or so. The decline has hardly begun, it would appear. Or is your recommendation driven by the idea that if many people go in now and do a good job low-balling, the decline will happen faster? The basic law of supply and demand would suggest that this cannot work…

#136 Stan Brooks on 03.30.18 at 12:34 am

No correction? Sure (as I would willingly agree with mental facility disturbed patients)

416 housing will go down in smoke in the biggest housing crash the world has ever seen.

Just go to Danforth and Coxwell and see these 1.2-1.5 million ‘gems’ that could not sell for 300 k in 2004-2005.

Considering the state of the economy these should be going for 200 k a piece.

Or go to Mississauga and crappy Vaughan and see their 2 million ‘gems’.

It beats me why a person would desire to live in GTA when it all comes crashing down. Owning ultra-expensive sub-standard shack or paying astronomic rent.

#137 Stan Brooks on 03.30.18 at 12:47 am

So that was it?

Preaching that real estate is expensive at 35-40 % of current valuations for 416/GTA /like in 2008 and now is the time to buy (as likely prices will increase tomorrow)?

As I said:
Any attempt to manage the unmanageable/soft landing will be futile.

Things must be really, really bad for GT to start talking real estate up in a place with no economy where the housing crash is just starting.

Diversify out and wait it out from aside.
When it crashes and burns you won’t like buying there in first place.

#138 Gulf Breeze on 03.30.18 at 12:55 am

#84 Ustabe,

Just a hint “rugged good looks” is code for “looks like I had my face sand blasted and trampled by a herd of heifers.” It’s a fetchin’ giddy-up look if you can get away with it!

#139 Gulf Breeze on 03.30.18 at 1:21 am

Watcha Minnie

Today I puttered around, fixed the rotating blade on my blender, caught a spider resting on a towel on the floor, flossed my teeth.

I put on a white t shirt and boxer shorts under a grey flannel shirt and hardy trousers. When I was finished I checked myself in the mirror.

Something wasn’t right. I changed into my own clothes after that. My husband didn’t mind.
Still, something was missing. I listened to Eartha Kitt singing Say see Bone. THAT wasn’t it.
It wasn’t until I read your latest post that I figured it allll out.
Watcha Minnie’s Austin Adventures is what had been missing from my day! Thanks for all the updates!

#140 Barb on 03.30.18 at 1:29 am

“Where are my crayons…? – Garth”

——————————————————

Must be a low biorhythm week for a lot of folks.

Bring out the finger puppets.

#141 Mountain_camper_in_tent on 03.30.18 at 1:34 am

What the heck is wrong with BC? Why they are not approving pipelines construction?This is a national project approved by Federal government.

For now I am boycotting BC until they approve our pipes.

No camping in BC.
No road trips to BC
NO wine from BC ( It’s not that good anyways).
No real estate purchase in BC (Not brainer)

I support Alberta Dippers to stop oil shipments to BC.Let them pay 2$ for gas.

Long live Alberta
Long live Canada

#142 mbacandidate on 03.30.18 at 1:43 am

We sold our second property four years ago and invested the proceeds into our TFSAs with enough left over to fund business school. Those investments have done well but nowhere near what that house is worth now. I secretly blame this blog!

#143 Bob in India on 03.30.18 at 2:10 am

#18 Fuzzy Camel on 03.29.18 at 7:15 pm
Binder and Raj can’t get enough real estate, buy house, slap in a basement apartment, repeat.
____________________________________________
For a point of reference, here in India the cultural and financial significance of owning property is not up for debate. Indians love property and hold onto it forever, regardless of the opportunity costs or potential losses. Owning property is a mantra and they never seem to sell in good times or bad. One can see that transfer of beliefs to Canada by the diaspora.

I’ve seen Indian relatives with real estate properties that are essentially ‘dead’ monies (in a true financial analysis sense) but they refuse to sell and move on….not unlike a lot of people in Canada.

#144 Dan on 03.30.18 at 2:31 am

Semi I rent was sold in midtown Toronto, first week multiple offers and 100k above asked. Family in the move again. I hear but I don’t see this Downturn.

#145 Disgruntled on 03.30.18 at 3:18 am

Garth I don’t think you thought through today’s post or give any consideration to the fact that Vancouver prices have not dropped more than a couple percent. People sitting on their multimillion-dollar lottery tickets are not in any hurry to sell them I think we need to Clines of at least 30% which you may have seen in Toronto but there’s nothing like that here in Vancouver. So no this is not the time to buy unless of course you’ve given up on any real correction Vancouver which frankly I would not blame you.

#146 Fake News Again on 03.30.18 at 3:41 am

The maple has been going south for a while now.

But GEE WHIZZ – you sure wouldn’t know it with the 10s of thousands of GOVT WORKERS that keep getting hired. So being as how greater than 50% of the people that (brag) on this blog about how much money they make – maybe one of these super enriched GOVT WORKERS can explain to us 3rd class boos HOW these continual hiring – of tens of thousands – of GOVT WORKERS are going to get paid?

And that does not even count the 500 billion in UN-funded Govt Worker pension liabilities…..

I wonder whom is going to brave enough to answer……

#147 under the radar on 03.30.18 at 5:46 am

No question momentum has shifted in favour of buyers in some parts of the 416, while other parts remain firmly sellers markets. The bug infested hipster hoods still get bidding wars . Shoebox condo’s remain all the rage for the newly minted briefcase crowd looking for their first ball and chain. Please do not forget all the delusional beginner landlords chasing anything they think they can break even on. The rogue spec builder crowd is getting clobbered waiting for their North York 4000 sq ft , $3 million stone and stucco temples to sell as buyers for these fluffed and stuffed turkeys seem to have evaporated.
Rising rates and a jittery stock market will reinforce a lack of confidence and prices will moderate or drop, but not in every part of the GTA which makes for a complicated market.

#148 Bggu on 03.30.18 at 6:06 am

I looked at 5 houses last week in Toronto, they all sold within days for 10-20% over asking. The fat lady has not sung yet.

#149 Gravy Train on 03.30.18 at 6:15 am

#38 MF on 03.29.18 at 7:41 pm
Where did I say ‘condo’? – Garth

#51 MF on 03.29.18 at 7:59 pm
Soon I will tell you children why condos are wealth traps. – Garth

#68 MF on 03.29.18 at 8:26 pm
Condos cost too much because you keep buying them. Dumb. – Garth

Rent ha[s] increased too. This is not because we keep paying it, but because there is a demand for units.

All real estate is local. Seems everyone is forgetting that. – Garth

For greater clarity, MF, move to a location where rents are much lower! Simple! (How many times does this have to be explained to you?!)

I pay less than $600/mo. on a mortgage for a 3-bed, 2-bath (with den) SFH built in 2004 that I bought in 2011. I also pay less than $600/mo. on a mortgage for both sides of a semi-detached with each side bringing in rents of $850/month. You have to be able to do math! Get it? No? You don’t? I give up! Dumb as a brick!

Hey, Floppy. Maybe you can knock some sense into him! :)

#150 Compounded Growth on 03.30.18 at 6:44 am

Now is not the time to buy in the GTA, in decent areas prices have barely moved down. If prices only flat line or decline 10-15% from here on you might as well invest your down payment in the stock market as you can still find things to buy like BRK-B and WFC which would provide a better return going forward than GTA real estate in my opinion. Without any serious price declines in the GTA, you will never make back the lost equity that you would have had had you bought years ago. If you have young family than maybe you have to move out of the GTA, Calgary might be the best option

#151 Howard on 03.30.18 at 7:10 am

The combination of Ontario’s new rent controls and foreign buyer’s tax, plus the mortgage stress test, Vancouver’s empty house tax plus BC’s 20% anti-Chinese tax, spec tax and luxury tax is too much to overcome. The market was rolling over anyway. Now it’s going paws-up.

——————————–

Paws up?

The other day you said the BC initiatives won’t make houses more affordable.

Or are you saying sales will seize up but prices will be indefinitely sticky? Like, forever?

I said what I said. Markets freeze and buyers get cold feet. Just read the comments here. Wusses. – Garth

#152 David McDonald on 03.30.18 at 7:24 am

#112 Mark is right that prices have boomed in the west end of Ottawa. Location is everything and in this case the cause of the boom is DND (Department of National Defence) moving to the former Nortel headquarters on Moodie Drive in west Ottawa. Since traffic is terrible on the 417 across the city this means the 9000 DND employees are thinking about moving west.

However Ottawa is a government town and moderation is a local trait. There never was a crazy jump in prices like Toronto. Prices are fairly flat in the east, south and center of the city. I suspect we will go into the doldrums like the nineties over the next few years. Sales will go down and prices will flatline.

Is it a good time to buy? Probably but sell your property first.

#153 JWD on 03.30.18 at 7:30 am

The natives are restless on the “buy” signal. Consensus after the first pull back in many years is wait and be patient. Things will keep turning south and real deals will likely happen into next winter. Let the spiral intensify.

Exactly what I wrote about. Human nature. People lust for rising assets and recoil from falling ones. How predictable. – Garth

#154 maxx on 03.30.18 at 8:44 am

“Sales are down. Competition is gone. Mortgages still historically cheap. Sellers desperate. Prices tumbling. Realtors ripped. Bargains at last. You’ve moaned long enough. If you’ve wanted a single house, this could be the moment to try. Man up. Or shut up.”

What, and put a floor under this mess? Let the wreck fester some more….a lot more. Buying now is still a wealth flush in most markets. The greed factor needs to deflate by a few orders of magnitude.

#155 dharma bum on 03.30.18 at 8:55 am

“When human nature changes, so will markets. That hasn’t happened yet. And this explains a great deal about where we are.” – Garth
——————————————————————–

Humans are very materialistic and selfish and want power and status. We try the easiest most convenient ways to get it – through fear and greed and acquisition (consumption).

This greed, selfishness, and materialism invariably leads to more suffering.

To gain true happiness and to become truly powerful and a better person, you need to free yourself from these things, but human nature gets in the way.

We are naturally greedy and selfish, because it gives us a false sense of status and power which is an illusion to mask the low self esteem and insecurity that most humans have.

Hence the endless desire to acquire more, bigger, and “better” things to show off (i.e. luxury houses and cars, fancy clothes and jewelry, and endless baubles, gadgets, and trinkets).

Consequently, most people remain perpetually vacuous, unsatisfied, broke, and miserable.

Change your own nature. End desire. Choose freedom.

#156 Steven Rowlandson on 03.30.18 at 9:05 am

“a sharp decline in household spending and investment – mostly on real estate.”

I’m doing my part. Total boycott of the genocidal real estate market. Real estate to or near zero! Hail Victory!

#157 ben on 03.30.18 at 9:19 am

> Well, kids, this is your moment.

Hold until you see the yellow of the boomer eyes.

Hold. Wait until they are *desperate*.

What has ‘boomer’ got to do with it? An ageist comment. Go away. – Garth

#158 Hogtown Indebted on 03.30.18 at 9:22 am

Soon I will tell you children why condos are wealth traps. – Garth

I remember well looking at new condo buildings off Church St near Wellesley in Toronto around 1990. They were for sale for around $199-280K for 1-2 bedrooms.

By about 1994, the last ones were being sold off, with big ads in the Toronto Star, by the bankruptcy selling corp with CMHC on board.

Prices? About $84K for a 2 bedroom condo. I took a couple tours, and they were very nice units, though a bit small. Great location. But it was tough to imagine the pain of those who had paid full price. They probably just broke even a few years ago.

This is coming back, for sure.

#159 ben on 03.30.18 at 9:23 am

End of March at the start of the listing season after new restrictive lending rules in January. Three months in, two of which everyone is around a fire.

Rush in now? You gotta be kidding me. I’m really surprised by this call. This isn’t the stock market.

#160 Duke on 03.30.18 at 9:24 am

#121 Linda on 03.29.18 at 11:23 pm

———————-

You are one of few sane people in this blog.

#161 D Apostrophe on 03.30.18 at 9:30 am

So you’re here. Hosers, you are on the brink of a once in a LIFETIME moment to buy in the 6ix coming up in probably a year or so. Hubris is a helluva drug. I saw it in LA and this market appears to be falling faster. That was beyond my imagination until I saw the numbers. Now it’s reality. If you need to find a real estate broker.. just go to a Shoppers and find a stock boy. He’ll be happy to switch hats for ya on his break.

#162 Mattl on 03.30.18 at 9:31 am

Comments confirm what I suspected, that the “vulchers” will never know when, or have to guts, to get into the market. Impossible to time the exact bottom and they are so afraid of any downward movement after purchase that they will never be able to pull the trigger.

Yet they still pray and vote for a crash that will take out their investments and possibly their careers.

#163 Heloguy on 03.30.18 at 10:06 am

#17 Bob Dog on 03.29.18 at 7:13 pm

I would love to see 25% unemployment in Canada. The stupid deserve their fate.

I hope your bunker is well stocked!

#164 NoName on 03.30.18 at 10:06 am

Horrors and nightmares of landlords or just marketing 101 for dummies.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/mobile/canada/woman-sues-quebec-company-after-rental-home-was-used-to-shoot-pornography-1.3864653
“Bassett says the “highly disturbing discovery” has caused her emotional and psychological distress.”

I wonder did discovery cam to light, considering all the news lately my money is on spankwire.

#165 nutbar on 03.30.18 at 10:18 am

consequently, most people remain perpetually vacuous, unsatisfied, broke, and miserable.

Change your own nature. End desire. Choose freedom.

……….

we’re talking bent noodle here

#166 akashic record on 03.30.18 at 10:27 am

We don’t need 500 sq ft concrete boxes nor 5000 sq ft McMansions

These are not created out of the blue…

If you have a SFH in Toronto, walking distance to the subway, as it was built originally (1800 sqf on a 65×120 lot), maximizing ROI will make you build a 4-5K sqf new house, whether you “need it” or not.

The only way this would become more rational if zoning was changed to allow 2-unit homes on the footprint of the 4-5K sqf building without splitting the plot. This would also make perfect sense for multi-generational family housing arrangement.

#167 Heloguy on 03.30.18 at 10:29 am

#1- Commonly stated number here is 70% home ownership. How many actually own their home outright?

#2- “Buyers Market” and “Go buy a house now”, mean two entirely different things.

#3- Condos = Wealth trap. Early 80’s joke heard around Alberta.
Question: Would you rather have syphillis or a condo?
Answer: Syphillis, because you can get rid of it.

#168 joblo on 03.30.18 at 10:35 am

Garth, methinks the Milli’s need a Power of Sale post.
Milli’s need to be prepared.

#169 Dr talc on 03.30.18 at 10:40 am

This blog has become a millenial moonbat magnet,
A byproduct of giving hope to the hopless

#170 Oft deleted much maligned stock.picker on 03.30.18 at 10:49 am

DELETED

#171 Not RE Advice on 03.30.18 at 10:52 am

The number of people here who think of the realtor’s office as the local ‘house store’ is incredible.

Asking prices are *asking prices*. Don’t be tricked when they call it by the other sneaky name of “listing price”. You want a deal now? Get out and make a low-ball offer on that house you’ve been drooling over. Offer the price you think it is worth, or the price you can afford, or the price you think it will be in a year. If they don’t take it? Go back in 3 months with another, lower offer. If you have a list of 3-4 houses that you can live with, you will probably find a buyer in no time.

The most important part of Garth’s post above: “If you make an offer, most often it will be the only one.”

To sum it up:

1. Mortgage rates are still historically low. Anything in 3% is a bargain!! My first mortgage was 5.84% in 2006 and I thought that was great at the time. And it was! Mortgages are forecast to rise over the coming years. If you wait to buy a house on credit, your mortgage payments will be higher.

2. House prices are falling. They are forecast to continue to fall. BUT if you offer less than current asking prices, you can bring those future, lower prices forward into the present. A seller who saw their house price double but missed the peak will possibly be ecstatic at offers of *only* 20-30% lower than current asking prices, just to take his/her capital gains out of a now ‘risky’ market.

What does it mean? You can, right now, get the best of both worlds if you shop around and negotiate. A low-rate mortgage and a lower priced home.

Don’t worry Garth, some of us get it.

#172 Linda on 03.30.18 at 10:59 am

‘missed out on a once in a lifetime capital gain that has cemented the divide between the haves & the have-nots’.

An interesting point of view. So, because those who waited, either due to lack of purchasing power in the first place or because they were not willing to pay the prices asked have been shut out of the market. So tell me, if those folks were not mired in debt trying to pay off a mortgage (had they bought) what stopped them from investing the money they would have presumably used to pay for a house into a balanced portfolio instead? Or put it into an RRSP or TFSA for future use? How is others taking the leap & tying themselves up in long term debt somehow disadvantaging those who did not? How is the choice made by others to NOT purchase the fault – because yes, there is a definite air of ‘its not fair’ in the above statement about missing out – of those who did buy?

Hate to break it to you but the choices made by others to their financial loss or detriment are not the responsibility of others to amend. In other words, those who took the risk & are now in the ‘have’ category are not obliged to lift the ‘have nots’ to their own level, at their own expense. Because not once have I seen any of the envious whiners take responsibility for their own choices. Nope, their mantra is ‘they are rich; I am not; it isn’t fair; the government should step in & give me what they (unfairly) received, etc.

Which brings me to my next point. That ‘once in a lifetime’ capital gain will only materialize if & when the person who owns the property sells it. Depending on timing & circumstance that sale may not gain the seller much of a capital gain. For instance, what if when they sell the market is flooded with competing properties? Which could well happen if retiring Boomers have to liquidate the family home in order to have retirement income beyond CPP/OAS/GIS. What everyone seems to forget is that the rise in home prices is essentially meaningless until that property is sold. IF that rise is realized, rejoice! But don’t count on it. Also, take care to compare apples to apples. What I see is people saying ‘they bought for $500K & sold for a million, they are rich’ I’m thinking ‘they bought for $500K, paid that off over 25 years so actually paid 1.5 or 2 million to the bank & sold for a million, so it cost them $500K to 1 million to live there for 25 years’. In other words I deduct both the original purchase price & the estimated interest paid to the bank from the actual selling price of the property. Depending on where they bought/sold, land transfer tax might apply. So the government scoops off some of those ‘gains’ as well. Plus don’t forget to deduct the costs for any home maintenance or property taxes during the period of ownership.

I strongly suspect that if one compared a diligent investor/saver renter to a diligent pay off the mortgage/sell/realize capital gains home owner that the amount of money each would have would be surprisingly similar once all the costs were factored in.

#173 I Live in Shangalila on 03.30.18 at 11:00 am

Asset price inflation is a world wide phenomena. It has been caused by too much money being created in too little time.

Get used to it folks.

The part of us that yearns for the past and to have things stay the way they are for nostalgia sake and for comfort sake wishes low prices would return.

The vulture in us wishes low prices would return to enable a good vulching, which has been fantasized about for years and decades perhaps.

Face facts.. inflation is a reality and we are in hyper inflationary times. Are they really going to increase the minimum wage to $15/hour in Onterrible?

So I would suggest all the good readers here get used to permanently higher prices.

That being said, buying on a pullback as Garth has suggested is not a bad idea because now the buyer is in the driver’s seat.

#174 Penny Henny on 03.30.18 at 11:19 am

Once again, I said all real estate is local, and urban 416 will not see the declines that have already occurred elsewhere. Sheesh. Where are my crayons…? – Garth
/////////////////

Do you like to colour when you are stressed? Me too.
Reporting from W08 in Etobicoke. It seems that everything under $1 million is hot again.

#175 crossbordershopper on 03.30.18 at 11:33 am

i kinda disagree, its way to early to buy,the government will monitor this for quite a while, buyers and sellers will just wait, and time will pass. one thing about real estate is that its sticky, not like the market, people will suffer and stay in a house a lot longer, buyers will just sit and wait. Real Estate is a long term thing, on the up and on the down.
the bigger picture in Ontario is that it sucks, the relentless increase in immigration will keep new buyers coming and depress wages. With higher gas prices and a crazy commute for many people to those jobs makes for a poor life.
so, yes in the end you end up with quite an expensive asset, it litterly kills you early in the meantime.
if you can find a job close to home, and either live with your parents or a cheap rent, then your not confused on why you work and where you live.
being young and poor is a lot better than older and richer, freedom is the key. i personally dont answer to anyone and i am free to come and go as i please, but its all in illusion. the government controls everything.

#176 MF on 03.30.18 at 11:49 am

167 NoName on 03.30.18 at 10:06 am

“Bassett says the “highly disturbing discovery” has caused her emotional and psychological distress.”

-Not everyone would consider this a bad thing!

MF

#177 Reynolds531 on 03.30.18 at 12:08 pm

And….one poll is reporting the Liberal budget in Ontario has closed the gap. Conservatives would not form a majority if the election was held today.

FFS, how dumb are people in this province?

#178 april on 03.30.18 at 12:08 pm

#45 – Your wrong!

#179 april on 03.30.18 at 12:10 pm

#178 – Should be #145 not #45

#180 M on 03.30.18 at 12:39 pm

Housing in Canada was/is 70+% of the economy.
Yes…I include Rona, car sales on HELOC, etc in it….as it should be.
Since all of it is on debt , it’s all a smokescreen since consumer debt (yes, housing is consumer debt since debt increased as a faster rate than incomes and the outcomes are non-productive) will need to either to be paid back (good luck with that) or need to be restructured (lucky banks they are mate…).

Recessions and depressions are a good thing in the sense that allow for a resetting of the cycle of debt.
Since the west was always miraged by marxism, it was only a matter of decades for westerners to attempt the socialist perfect society in which there is goldilocks for everyone – but with a high standard of living (vs easter europe cca 1985 that had a crappy standard of living)

I came to Canada in 1990 and when I stepped into McGill for my PhD program I was greeted with a flier from the Marxist Party of Canada and another one with the LBGM’s Rainbow.

During the years, I observed the dumbing down of knowledge in sciences and applied technologies (exactly what makes a country great and productive) and I remembered an instant in which a dear leader’s wife in the East decided to terminated the faculty of mathematics as a stand alone faculty across the country.

I smiled to myself saying that an endeavour can have many shapes and can carry many flags but the final results are always the same.

The way in which people commit collective suicides always puzzled me.

So…I am not at all surprised as how things are building up slowly to the tzunami of the systemic disaster. I have witnessed the collapse of a system…and now I am witnessing a second.

To the ones that would reply “yes M..but that was socialism” I would serenely reply “Have you watched yourself in the mirror you arrogant fool ?”

Thing is… I do not think that the west’s economic crisis has so much to do with knowledge or techniques. I think the rot is far far deeper, down to the core of the societal and individual values. The economic aspect is one of the symptoms.

Looking at the Eastern European experience it seems to me that social fallacies may be eventually corrected with 30 years of poverty, sufferance and rediscovery of the simple truths.

A taste of what’s to come in Gringo land:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zKkJB8Etq54

#181 For those about to flop... on 03.30.18 at 12:42 pm

#118 NoName on 03.29.18 at 11:05 pm
@flop and san diego

I’ve never been to san diego but few people i know went there and all of them mentioned zoo. Somewhere on my bucket list is to take pacific coast highway, start with visit to my childhood friend in seattle and turn around when we hit the border to mexico, i cant go in we just beat them in soccer other day. Until then ill just keep daydreaming and going thru pages of Moon Pacific Coast Highway Road Trip.

Few yrs back wife’s highschool friend and her family came over from san diego, everything they sad about sd was nice, but they did complain bit about re prices, and all to consider that both of them are RN, wife is kaiser nurse and dude works as rn at department of correctional services.

///////////////////////////////////

Hey NoName,that was our fourth visit to San Diego.

They get great weather there,not too hot,not too cold.

Yes ,the real estate there is some of the most expensive in the country, I put a chart at the bottom for you to look at the difference across certain regions.

As far as a California road trip is concerned I have a campervan and my wife has the summers off ,so I drove down to Yosemite N.P via Crater Lake and Lassen Volcanic N.P and after visiting family in the Bay Area drove the coast highway all the way back to Vancouver.

Checked out the giant Redwood and Sequoia trees as well.

We took our time and did this trip over a six week period.

I am not in the best health for my age ,and so while trying to save for retirement,I also try to live a little as well.

When we go camping in the summer time ,mainly in the states ,people come over to look at my old van and when we get to talking a lot of them state that they have regrets about not taking time to take a break and relax earlier in life…

M43BC

How Many Hours Americans Need to Work to Pay Their Mortgage

https://howmuch.net/articles/hours-work-afford-home

#182 Alex N calgary on 03.30.18 at 12:52 pm

I feel like you’re a bit defensive about predictions of the housing market being a bit off? You were the one preaching huge market correction for 5 years + now! (which should have happened) are you one of the snarky malcontents? Some house prices in Calgary have gone down, a lot have not, despite very tough jobs climate, despite huge rental inventory and I mean huge.

I mean technically its better to buy then last year, but the risk of loss is still pretty high? I get how you want people to just screw off who are still whiney about corrections, and there seems to be no end in sight and its hard to predict, but man I don’t blame you for it! ignore those people,

keep up the good work, its up to all of us whiney renters to decide on our own when its time to buy, based on info from you, local market, our own predictions, gotta do the work on our own right?

#183 Mountain_Camper_in_tent on 03.30.18 at 12:54 pm

Request from Red Deer:

Rather than bringing heat to property market, please bring heat into ambient air…its way more valuable as we speak right now.Red Deer is getting 15 cm of snow today….crazy.

p.s. : I don’t think there will be any heat coming into property market in Red Deer this year….its been steady for last few years. Good for young people and new comers. Speculators….I do not care.

#184 Stan Brooks on 03.30.18 at 1:08 pm

Once in a lifetime capital gains is if you sold.
If not, buckle up, you are in for a ride.

You know, houses in Detroit used to be expensive at some point.

For real prices in Canada, look at Minneapolis, even Buffalo.

like 25 % of current prices in GAT/Vancouver. Maybe less.

Even Atlanta/Georgia is better.
But best value for the money is Huston, Dallas, even Florida.

Much cheaper, much less idiots willing to work for less mortgaging their life by not having kids, just the cardboard house, if lucky or the glass condo.

#185 Stan Brooks on 03.30.18 at 1:11 pm

#180 Reynolds531 on 03.30.18 at 12:08 pm
And….one poll is reporting the Liberal budget in Ontario has closed the gap. Conservatives would not form a majority if the election was held today.

FFS, how dumb are people in this province?

————————–

Very dumb. The dumbest from the ‘dumb and the dumber.’

#186 Glengarry Girl on 03.30.18 at 1:27 pm

In terms of where we are at on the Housing Bubble Correction Phase, there are many charts and theories that do a great job of laying this out. There are many sources that break down and analyze this data. We have the added problem of a Huge Debt Bubble combined with a relatively flat TSX for many years. Proceeded by over a decade of very low interest rates which has fueled the Debt Bubble with easy money and credit creating an unsustainable cycle of extreme leverage. Basically the chart would resemble a roller coaster ride with us strapped in about to free fall over the first and highest part of the track.

#187 Karma on 03.30.18 at 2:05 pm

Garth,

Have you ever seen the Khan Academy’s website before?

I think it’s quite an amazing tool for anyone to learn the basics of finance.

Here’s the link to the finance section:
https://www.khanacademy.org/economics-finance-domain/core-finance

Perhaps you can embed in your messages the links that these moisters need to know to make better decisions.

#188 DON on 03.30.18 at 2:12 pm

Things getting outrages yet!

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/kamloops-man-sues-10-year-old-girl-after-jogging-into-her-bike-1.4599629

Rosario Perilli was injured after trying to pass girl and her friends cycling 3 abreast.

FFS… MAN-UP! Entitled Adults.

or this one… to chum the the Greater Fool Ocean (GFO) and it’s apparent opposition to reading comprehension.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/private-companies-spent-47k-to-send-surrey-s-mayor-to-real-estate-conference-1.4598087

Check out the list of private companies. The BC liberals keep on giving, trying to pump the market to foreigners.

#189 aa5 on 03.30.18 at 2:27 pm

As predicted here, once the home equity ATM gets turned off, the economy will just crater.

One of the next shoes to drop is collapsing government revenues.

#190 DON on 03.30.18 at 2:32 pm

Hi Garth.

Have a message from my son.

“Hi Garth! I love your blog. Daddy reads it to us daily at bedtime. I have a little money put aside that I made from a side business. I have a trillion dollars in a GIC. My daddy calls him the ‘orange guy’. Anyways…I don’t know what that means and figure the old man is loosing it. I want to get in the housing market and think now is the right moment. Even though the market is in decline…in my lifetime things have never appeared cheaper. My dad is telling me not to put all my eggs in one basket. I am still not sure what that means…like I said the old man seems to be loosing his mind – he mumbles ‘peak 2013’ in his sleep. By the way I made my fortune selling fake gold coins to a bunch of emotional old people. I mean 20 is old to a 9 yr old. Please help Garth…I think my parent’s are embezzling from me. Should I buy Dubai? Please help me.

On a side note – do children get ice cream for free on opening day? – I am a little skint this month”

If you could help my son out that would be great Garth!

Thanks in advance. oh yah beware of his team of lawyers…

#191 Blacksheep on 03.30.18 at 2:33 pm

I think it’s time to post this very enlightening video again, by Ray Dalio.

He spells out in very simple terms how the economy functions. Many dogs are pushing back on Garth’s blog comments today, because I really don’t think they see what’s happened / happening, in the western economies.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHe0bXAIuk0

At about the 26 to 32 minute mark, Ray shares what he calls “A beautiful deleveraging” watch and he explains what it means.

My takeaway relevant to today’s blog is:

He explains debt cycles, expand/over supply/contract/repeat.

The short term cycle, 5 plus years and the long term cycle, 50 plus years. He then points out, the very important rule #3:

“Do all that you can to raise your productivity”

Because debt spending pulls financial obligations from the future, debtors must earn / acquire, “raised” incomes / revenues to cover said additional future debts. As long as debts do not stack up too much to the point that debtors can no longer borrow from the future, things keep rolling along.

This is where the West has gotten into trouble. Wages have stagnated for decades now and with out wage growth, additional debts cannot be taken / serviced.

So what can the system possibly do to avoid the ending of the long term 50 + cycle and accompanying depression?

Create a wealth effect for the citizenry by inflationary means. Ray calls it printing money (over simplified description but the results the same) ZIRP is offered to the masses, inflationary forces kick into high gear because everybody/business can carry so much more debt, asset prices (global real estate values) go nuts.

Today, many dogs are clinging to the traditional, 3X income calculation as an expectation of what a home should cost. This is faulty thinking, for the above explained reasons.

Those waiting for the “crash” will be waiting a very long time as there is just too much $ floating around to let things deflate to that level.

Things will correct a bit based on human behavior, but the new lows price wise, will much higher than most people think.

Or, I’m completely full of shit and have no idea what I’m talking about, you decide.

#192 Welcome to Slurrey on 03.30.18 at 2:34 pm

Your supposed to wait till April 1st to play the joke Garth……..unless your referring to other areas other than YVR -> people could have bought 4 years ago in YVR at a half the cost and now your advising buy at double ? lol, thanks for the laugh.

#193 Madcat on 03.30.18 at 2:39 pm

I am seeing a lot of people blaming Garth for their decision not to buy. The fact of the matter is that all of us found a blog that shared the same view point as we did… We didn’t join some realtor’s bull blog… If any of us have missed the boat it was our own fault. We all did the research and underestimated the government’s willingness to lower rates/ lengthen amortizations/ lower down payments/banks’ lending stupid amounts to people who should never have qualified/ FOMO etc… We were wrong… We are all responsible for our own life choices. Hopefully the correction is finally upon us before we drop dead…

#194 DON on 03.30.18 at 2:44 pm

#93 Eco Capitalist on 03.29.18 at 9:17 pm

Anyone selling their decoder ring? I want free sprinkles!
************************

When will the decoder ring be updated with a reading comprehension app?

#195 LivinLarge on 03.30.18 at 2:44 pm

“FFS, how dumb are people in this province?”…apparently not dumb enough to give Dougie control of anything of any value…thank heavens. If they could ever get their scat together and come up with a likable leader the cons could take back control, instead they just keep finding folks less likable than the Libs.

#196 Newcomer on 03.30.18 at 2:57 pm

#156 dharma bum on 03.30.18 at 8:55 am

We are naturally greedy and selfish, because it gives us a false sense of status and power which is an illusion to mask the low self esteem and insecurity that most humans have.
———-

You are going further than you need to. We are naturally greedy. That’s it. All things with consciousness are greedy. That’s what keeps them alive. Self-esteem and insecurity are just Bhava-taṇhā, which is to say a subclass of desire, not a cause. Focusing on that only confuses the issue because people will fall into the trap of thinking that if they had higher self-esteem and more security, they wouldn’t be greedy. They would. As you say, it’s better to work directly on not wanting stuff, then the self-esteem and insecurity will take care of themselves.

#197 Damifino on 03.30.18 at 3:10 pm

#195 Newcomer

Great comment. I hope you will stick around.

#198 DON on 03.30.18 at 3:13 pm

#164 Mattl on 03.30.18 at 9:31 am

Comments confirm what I suspected, that the “vulchers” will never know when, or have to guts, to get into the market. Impossible to time the exact bottom and they are so afraid of any downward movement after purchase that they will never be able to pull the trigger.

Yet they still pray and vote for a crash that will take out their investments and possibly their careers.
*****************
Are you going to keep on nattering while the market is in decline.

Consumer spending is down, even though Helocs are up. Real estate takes a dip and now magically the economy is shrinking. Try reading history and projecting into the future.

The amount of time you spend on here telling people the market will never decline could be put to use selling another house or buying another investment property of just sticking your head in the sand. Look around you and observe. ‘I never saw it coming naturally flows to…No one saw this coming’ Well some are watching it actually occur while others will try to justify why they didn’t.

#199 DON on 03.30.18 at 3:13 pm

For April Fools this year. Giver your local realtor a call. LOL

#200 For those about to flop... on 03.30.18 at 3:34 pm

Seen this a few times lately.

This property despite being on the first rung of the Vancouver detached ladder doing a small ,quick reduction after no being on the market for long.

Only took 26k off but they seem proud to have it on the market for. 1.24 when the assessment is 1.46, a 15% difference on the low end of the salt water swimming pool.

The tide is going out…

M43BC

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/4189-miller-street

#201 Stan Brooks on 03.30.18 at 3:36 pm

#194 Blacksheep on 03.30.18 at 2:33 pm

Things will correct a bit based on human behavior, but the new lows price wise, will much higher than most people think.

Or, I’m completely full of shit and have no idea what I’m talking about, you decide.

=====================

You are missing the opportunity cost of NOT INVESTING IN CANADA,

which is the best solution by far going forward,
You don’t need a house in this place when jobs disappear.

#202 Rargary on 03.30.18 at 3:36 pm

#170 Heloguy… #1- Commonly stated number here is 70% home ownership. How many actually own their home outright?

#2- “Buyers Market” and “Go buy a house now”, mean two entirely different things.

#3- Condos = Wealth trap. Early 80’s joke heard around Alberta.
Question: Would you rather have syphillis or a condo?
Answer: Syphillis, because you can get rid of it.

HAHAHA SOOOO TRUE!

#203 Reynolds531 on 03.30.18 at 4:00 pm

#198

I complained loudly in a tim hortons the other day that I would rather vote for my cat than anyone currently running. I came away with commitments from two strangers to support Bear the cat for premier.

#204 tccontrarian on 03.30.18 at 4:24 pm

199 Newcomer on 03.30.18 at 2:57 pm

#156 dharma bum on 03.30.18 at 8:55 am

We are naturally greedy and selfish, because it gives us a false sense of status and power which is an illusion to mask the low self esteem and insecurity that most humans have.
———-

You are going further than you need to. We are naturally greedy. That’s it. All things with consciousness are greedy. That’s what keeps them alive. Self-esteem and insecurity are just Bhava-taṇhā, which is to say a subclass of desire, not a cause. Focusing on that only confuses the issue because people will fall into the trap of thinking that if they had higher self-esteem and more security, they wouldn’t be greedy. They would. As you say, it’s better to work directly on not wanting stuff, then the self-esteem and insecurity will take care of themselves.
–=========================================
I’m more than just ‘greedy’- I’m a pig (as per Stanley Drunkemiller)!
I see an opportunity, do my due diligence, and once I’m satisfied with conviction I go fot it in a sizeable way.
My ‘mentor’ once commented (paraphrasing), “if you have $20 to spend on a meal and you have a choice between a McDonalds Meal or an entre at a fine French restaurant for the same cost, why would you go for the double arches”?
Am I being ‘greedy’ or plain ‘smart’? So far, my successes would suggest the latter.

TC

#205 Terry on 03.30.18 at 4:38 pm

Sorry to sound like a troll, but I can’t see this being the time to buy in Canada. Where I live (Small town) there’s nothing for sale and prices are stupid compared to even 2 years ago. Looking back I could have bought and flipped to get into the market. Now I can’t afford to, but not too worried. Household spending is going down because people are house poor here. Interest rates are just starting to rise, the more they do, the less disposable income people will have. The petro-Yuan just rolled out and will change things this year. Oil and gas prices are going higher this year, taking more disposable income from the “Middle class” there’s no reason to think real-estate will go higher, wages haven’t caught up, prices on everything going up. (ICBC premium 40% over next 4 years!) I’m not buying now, if prices are starting to slide, this is finally the beginning of a crash that’s been a long time coming and there’s no reason for the prices we have now besides central bank policy. This next wealth transfer will be unprecedented

#206 The Technical Analyst, CSTA, CPD on 03.30.18 at 6:11 pm

I don’t think now is time to buy… from a technical/financial point of view… usually “time to buy” means FEAR, there isn’t enough fear out there to call it a bottom… have you heard:

“Never own real estate”
“Buying a house was the worst financial mistake…”
“Never lost so much money…”

anything?

Not yet.

#207 Andrii on 03.30.18 at 7:08 pm

Not buying , it’s not a bottom .

#208 rational on 03.30.18 at 7:59 pm

Bargains at last. You’ve moaned long enough. If you’ve wanted a single house, this could be the moment to try.
———
After the biggest, longest housing bubble in decades just be ready to pop, for most people now surely is not the right moment to try to buy.

#209 45north on 03.30.18 at 8:52 pm

M: Housing in Canada is 70% of the economy. Yes, including Rona, car sales on HELOC, etc. It’s all a smokescreen, since all of it is on debt.
Recessions and depressions are good things in the sense they allow for a resetting of debt.

The west has always been fooled by Marxism. In a matter of decades, westerners are trying to build the perfect socialist society but with a high standard of living (versus Eastern Europe circa 1985 that had a low standard of living)

I came to Canada in 1990. When I stepped into McGill for my PhD program I was greeted with a flier from the Marxist Party of Canada and another one with the LBGM’s Rainbow. During the years, I observed the dumbing down of knowledge in sciences and applied technologies (exactly what makes a country great and productive). I remembered when the dear leader’s wife in the East decided to terminate the faculty of mathematics as a stand alone faculty across the country.

Russia?


I smiled to myself saying that an endeavour can have many shapes and can carry many flags but the final result is always the same. The endeavour is the move towards socialism and the final result is a kind of collective suicide. I am not surprised by how things are moving towards a systemic disaster. I have witnessed the collapse of a system and now I am witnessing the collapse of a second.

To the ones that would reply “yes M..but that was socialism” I would serenely reply “Have you seen yourself in the mirror you arrogant fool ?”

Thing is… I do not think that the west’s economic crisis has so much to do with knowledge or techniques. I think the rot is deeper, down to the core of the societal and individual values. The economic aspect is one of the symptoms. Looking at the Eastern European experience it seems to me that social fallacies may be eventually corrected with 30 years of poverty, suffering and rediscovery of the simple truths.

A taste of what’s to come in Gringo land:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zKkJB8Etq54

I watched the video California Dreaming – The Bankrupt Golden State. Half of it anyways. Your words, I find sobering.

#210 Pete on 03.30.18 at 11:25 pm

107 John

–—————————-

If I’m dumb, then you’re dumber.

Read the blog carefully. RE is local, but buyers are not. 20% of buyers in NR are from gta. For example. Garth’s assumptions are too simple.

#211 Vaughan on 03.31.18 at 8:59 am

Except that in Toronto proper, the so-called “moisters” and “FOMOs” are now signing the equivalent of a house priced in 905 for a 400 sq ft box in a 50 storey filing cabinet: https://tinyurl.com/yag5s2tt

#212 Steven Rowlandson on 03.31.18 at 9:13 am

#158 It isn’t as simple as studying harder or doing something different work wise. Employers want cheap
labour and if they can’t get it locally they will import it or go where it is available. They want expert well trained workers who will work cheaply also.
Employers don’t want to pay the 80 to 100 bucks an hour needed by their employees to buy a home. Don’t believe it? Ask them.

Studying harder? Are you joking? Learning in Canadian schools is freaking hard because of the bad behaviour of other students. It is a war zone and a social hell. Except for Illuminati black ops there is no other explanation for school shootings and other forms of violence. School is a hell walk and that is a law and not a theory. The only way you will learn without the social BS and hell walk is if you learn in a school where the animals posing as humans are not legally required to attend. K to 12 night school or at learning centres would do nicely and the results would be pretty damned good. In my case going from 24 to 33 credits with good marks as an adult student worked for me but it did not facilitate career change or get me into higher education. I’m 57 years old , homeless and an experienced stair builder working part time for $15 an hour. There is no serious income or welfare to allow accommodation and retraining and by virtue of market forces as we know them there never will be without serious changes. Wages and welfare is a sick joke next to the real estate market.
The market for labour only wants cheap wage slaves in all professions if possible. For example if the prime minister of Canada were to appoint me as his replacement and resign the first instinct of those writing my pay cheque would be to put me on minimum wage and no benefits or expense accounts because of who and what I am. Straight, white and intelligent with sense of right and wrong. Rewarding such a person with decent pay would be politically incorrect. I would need extraordinary powers to make the corrections I deem necessary to make things right for me and the future of this country. It would not be pleasant.
Fixing this country would only be recognized as being good generations after it has been accomplished and only after the last of the PC reprobates and real estate speculators have died out and been largely forgotten both in their persons and their deeds.

#213 Guy in Calgary on 03.31.18 at 11:36 am

#67 Mountain_camper_in_tent on 03.29.18 at 8:25 pm
I’m thinking of buying a brand new townhome in South Calgary as rental property.I think this is the bottom in house price in Calgary…it will be stable going forward,or may even go up if economy improves a bit.

You cannot make money on a SFH rental. Especially in Calgary. – Garth
—————————————————————–

Cap rates on some condos downtown are beginning to look pretty attractive. Tonnes of inventory in Calgary currently. Realtor friend of mine listed his place and took it off the market a few weeks later since he only had 1 showing.

Good properties priced well continue to sell but a lot of inventory is just sitting there.

#214 Guy in Calgary on 03.31.18 at 11:39 am

#69 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 03.29.18 at 8:29 pm
All real estate is local. Seems everyone is forgetting that. – Garth
………………..

Real estate is not “local” any more. If it was, the average locals could afford to buy average family homes in their own home towns.
——————————————————–

You’ve obviously never been East of the GTA or west of Ontario.

West of AB doesn’t count.

#215 Sid on 03.31.18 at 4:02 pm

HI Garth,

Myself and many blog dogs are perplexed. Maybe on one of your posts next week you can explain where is best to buy. I’m in Mississauga and there is no slow down here. Waiting patiently!

#216 David on 04.01.18 at 9:24 pm

He’s not saying buy, he’s saying it’s better now. I’m saying wait and be patient. The unwinding has just begun. Don’t try to catch a falling knife. This may last years.

#217 M on 04.01.18 at 10:13 pm

@45North

Russia ?

NIET ! :)
One of the “lil’ ” satellites. Much like Canada …fence in fence with the elephant. “our” elephant. :)
Satellite states in Eastern Europe have collapsed just like the big boy. However… the worst of the times were 1994-1997.
To have a taste…imagine famous university teachers begging at the metro stations. Break your heart.

Ex USSR though… was far far far worse. In addition…oil fields “rented out” for 99 years returning 2% of output to the Russian state…. Putin does have a point…and believe me… his election percentages are real. Russians do remember the “decade of national humiliation”.

…talking about “collapse”… it’s a sudden event. No matter what the system is… what matters in the end is solidarity of its citizens, food, shelter, safety.

Peace.