The shove off

With just a few days remaining in the only month that tells you what to do, things are looking dodgy for the nation’s biggest housing market. Exclusive numbers secured by GreaterFool operatives confirm the pattern of the last few months. Down. The FOMO is gone and sales are falling.

Up to Tuesday just 2,276 properties of all kinds had changed hands in the Kingdom of 416. If this holds until the weekend, it means a withering 36% plop in transactions over 2017. In fact, there could be fewer sales in March of 2018 than at any time since back in the spring of 2009, when the world was gripped by the credit crisis.

Prices? Don’t expect much change when the official realtor Frankenumber® stats are released at the end of next week. Down a couple more per cent maybe – but these are early days in the process. First sales tumble then, if conditions persist, sellers capitulate and the ask drops. This will be speeded up if overall listings increase, and delayed if they shrink. In any case, the sentiment is negative.

Ditto in Victoria. Sales so far in March are 28% below year-ago levels. In Calgary, sales this month have fallen 25% while the number of active listings is greater by 23%. So, it’s pretty clear where that market is headed.

Making things worse, as usual, are politicians. The latest to demonstrate their mental opacity are the Dippers in BC, where Comrade Premier Horgan has just admitted they  screwed up on their latest market-killing tax. The provincial government unleashed a tsunami of outrage and criticism when it announced everyone with a second home, cottage, cabin or lakeside lovenest who didn’t rent it out would be taxed as a ‘speculator’ even if they’d owned it for decades and had no intention of selling. It soon became clear this was a tax on anyone ‘rich’ enough to have two properties. On Planet NDP they therefore deserve to be Hoovered.

Horrified locals came to understand it would apply to them as well as those loathsome offshore buyers everyone hates, plus Albertans that they hate even more, along with those odious Upper Canadians. (Much hate in BC these days.) Evident to all was that the government hadn’t properly thought this out, had not modelled it and failed to understand the negative impact it would have on the economy – especially touristy areas included in the tax. Meanwhile it sent out a horrible message to fellow Canadians who pay income tax and may have bought a BC property which they finance like everyone else. That message: shove off. BC for BCers. Four legs good, two legs bad.

The big retreat (sort of) came yesterday. The geographic area the tax covers will be trimmed mightily (but not as much as places like Kelowna wanted – it’s still in), and citizens will be divided into two classes. Those who reside outside of BC, but in Canada, will pay double the rate locals face. Foreign buyers will be crucified as originally intended.

As with any tax, the spec levy is growing more complex by the hour. Now Parksville and Qualicum are out but Nanaimo is still in. Harrison Hot Springs and Hope are exempt. Not so with Chilliwack or Abby. People with cabins and cottages may be exempt, or maybe not. Places have to be rented out three months this year and six months in 2019. Locals will participate in an upfront tax credit program to offset the annual levy. People living across the line in Alberta need to pay it all in advance. Condo owners in buildings where rentals are banned, and who don’t live there full-time, will be temporarily grandfathered. And on and on. Just imagine the amount of red tape, government overhead and bureaucrats necessary to figure all this out, document it and force compliance – surely enough to eat up most of the revenue expected.

Anyway, what will this do to real estate prices on the left coast?

Beats me. But I’m convinced the market will slow to a morbid crawl. Sales of higher-end homes will be severely impacted – the kinds of properties nobody can buy. The declines in prices there will bring down the average, but not do anything to restore affordability to the region. The kids will continue to jump into condos, so don’t expect much moderation there. Areas like Kelowna will be injured disproportionately. The outflow of Albertan money will have a negative impact on resort and tourist areas – places with low population – which the NDP actually doesn’t care about.

So, no big increase in rental stock. No drop in rents. Certainly no collapse in urban real estate prices, but a wounded market with economic implications plus families with trapped equity. Remember – when assets lose favour, buyers go away.

The Dippers blew this in every possible way. Big surprise.

223 comments ↓

#1 Victoria Real Estate Update on 03.27.18 at 6:00 pm

HOUSING “EXPERTS” ALWAYS PREDICT A SOFT LANDING FOR THEIR MARKET

Look for it and you’ll definitely find it. Canadian housing “experts” typically argue that it is different here and that there will be a soft landing for Canada’s housing market.

Their arguments are as narrow-minded and self-serving as those used by housing “experts” in pre-bust Japan, Ireland, Italy, Greece, the US, Iceland, Spain, etc.

Typically Canadian “experts” ignore 200 years worth of world housing bubble history and choose to compare Canada’s situation to that of only one of history’s housing bubbles – the 2006 US bubble- and try to pass it off as a well-researched and valid “it’s different here” argument.

As well, Canadian “experts” always ignore relevant factual information – that Canada’s housing price run-up between 2000 and 2006/08 mirrored that of the US (first chart) and that Canada’s debt run-up tracked that of the US from 2000 to 2006/08 (third chart).

Clearly they prefer to keep the first half of Canada’s bubble inflation out of their biased “it’s different here” argument.

The fact of the matter is that 200 years of world housing bubble history has shown that a bubble is a bubble and it makes no difference how it got that way. And once a bubble inflates there will automatically be a bust.

It happens like this:

THE BOOM YEARS:

HOW IT BEGINS:
* The implementation of lax lending standards is always the starting point for a housing bubble. Canada certainly had its share (mostly beginning after 2000) and too much of it remains in place today. For example, Canada’s miniscule 5% minimum down payment rule (since 1992). If a mortgage with a 5% down payment was issued today in the US it would be considered subprime (the minimum down payment there is 20%).

THE OBVIOUS RESULT:
* Housing prices suddenly take off, often from “safe” levels that had been stable and properly supported by income levels (with responsible lending standards) for several years (think Canada 1995-2000).
* Lax lending standards (and poor enforcement), mortgage fraud and highly leveraged speculation temporarily push house prices to unbelievable levels, leaving gains in incomes far behind.
* Abnormally strong (and temporary) gains are seen in home ownership levels, real estate investment, speculation (mostly by locals), construction activity, HELOCs, etc. and the vacancy rate temporarily drops to abnormally low levels.

THE INEVITABLE DEBT PROBLEM:
* Extreme debt levels are always part of the housing bubble experience.
* It’s no secret that Canada’s bubble housing price run-up mirrored that of the US from 2000 to 2006/08 along with its debt run-up.
* With the implementation of more and more reckless policy, Canadian house prices skyrocketed past those in the US after 2006/08 (first chart) while Canadian debt levels also continued to soar, leaving those in the US far below (second chart)..

NO HOUSING BUBBLE HERE!
* Policymakers deny the existence of a housing bubble in their country and repeatedly offer assurances of a soft landing. Anybody who suggests a hard landing is inevitable is immediately labelled a “doom-and gloomer” by those in the housing industry or anybody with a mortgage.
* Housing bubbles trash the real economy of a country. Overdependence on the (overactive) housing industry (which stimulates the entire economy as long as house prices are rising) temporarily masks the growing list of problems with the real economy and household finances (BC has a -8% savings rate).

Continued…

#2 I saw Ogopogo on 03.27.18 at 6:04 pm

Delusional South Okanagan Realtor Alert !!!

BC Assessment $681,000
https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDA5NTBZUQ==

But this renovated rancher listed today at $1,200,000
https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/19226716/1162-REDLANDS-ROAD-PENTICTON-British-Columbia-V2A1X4-PE-UplandsRedlands

Don’t be looking at this bigger newer home with an extra 3 car garage with pool for only $1,149,900
https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/19208146/172-PENROSE-CRT-PENTICTON-British-Columbia-V2A9B6-PE-WiltseValleyview

#3 Victoria Real Estate Update on 03.27.18 at 6:06 pm

SMUGNESS
* Many of those who took on (new or additional) mortgage debt at unsustainable price levels feel smug (and brag a lot) while prices temporarily continue to climb… but when prices reverse and the bust plays out, many of those who felt smug and bragged become quiet and depressed as they are forced to face financial ruin.

THE BUST YEARS:

ONCE IT STARTS IT CAN’T BE STOPPED
* Despite the efforts of policy makers to stop the price decline, house prices fall back to the long-term mean (that was established before lax lending standards were implemented) and most often over-correct past that level.
* Cities with the highest levels of speculation (think Victoria, Vancouver and Toronto) always end up experiencing the most brutal price busts. (In the US correction, house prices in west coast, warm weather, tech-central Francisco fell 45% in 3 years, while prices in Dallas and Denver fell only 11% and 12%, respectively (Case Shiller index)).

EMOTIONS
* Emotional panic buying present during the boom is replaced by more powerful emotional panic selling during the bust.

THE ARTIFICIAL ECONOMIC BOOM REVERSES
* During the boom, rising prices and an overactive housing market stimulated the entire economy.
* But during the (equally powerful) bust, artificial stimulation disappears and the (now compromised and much weaker) economy isn’t able to support bubble house price levels.
* The weakness of the post-boom economy (with its dramatically lower consumer spending levels (reversal of the wealth effect), job losses, lower wages (in a lot of cases), elevated debt levels, etc.) plays a significant role in pushing house prices back down to the long-term mean.

POST-BUST BUYERS ENTER THE MARKET AT SAFE PRICE LEVELS
* After house prices have corrected/crashed and are once again supported by income levels and other fundamentals, those who refused to buy at ridiculous and unsustainable price levels have plenty of time and selection with which to enter the market. Their experience is relaxed and enjoyable instead of panicked and stressful.
* Those who made the intelligent decision to rent and wait for prices to fall back to their city’s long-term mean (which didn’t take too long) think back at the experience and laugh at those who said things like “If they didn’t get in by (year xxxx) they‘ll never get in” and feel smug knowing they got in at prices much lower than in the year xxxx.
* It seems like only yesterday for those who waited until after the bust to buy as they think back and laugh at all of the housing industry propaganda they ignored when prices were obviously at unsustainably bloated levels. It was common to hear (false) industry sales pitches like “With inflation it isn’t worth waiting for lower prices” or “If it was going to happen it would have happened already” or “They were wrong in 2012 so they’re wrong now” or “It’s different in our city, here’s why…”.
* Those who waited for the inevitable bust to play out before taking the plunge think back and laugh at those who said that “Government knows that the economy would be screwed if they let housing fall, so they won’t let prices correct” and feel smug that they knew at the time that in 200 years of world housing bubble history no government succeeded at the impossible task of preventing the brutally destructive bust part of the housing boom-bust cycle.

#4 scooby doo on 03.27.18 at 6:08 pm

Wynne now offering free child care for pre-schoolers. It has to end.

#5 Guy in Calgary on 03.27.18 at 6:09 pm

The old “make it up as you go” is strong with the BC NDP. This spec tax thing will be re-written over and over. Once Kelowna turns into a smoldering crater, it will be exempt as well.

The TMP fiasco is hilarious as well. Posturing and entering litigation they cannot win, the BC NDP come across as the heroes the socialists wanted. “Look! We’re trying!” The thing is being built. Maybe worry about your strip mining, clear cutting and ecosystem destroying hydro dam. Not to mention the poop and needles being pumped into the water in Victoria. What a mess.

Horgan knows they cannot stop it but if we try, the greenies and socialists will salivate over us and we secure their votes. It is so freakin obvious.

Both a shame and at this point, a joke.

#6 Reality is stark on 03.27.18 at 6:11 pm

Buyers are on strike.
Nothing is moving.
It’s all over but the shouting.
Open houses are dead.
The bloodletting has begun.
My buddy the divorce lawyer says calls coming in from prospective female clients are up 500% over last year.
It will be an ugly slaughter.

#7 Wheresthemath on 03.27.18 at 6:13 pm

When I first heard about the spec tax, I could only shake my head. Its not a spec tax. To me, a spec tax would be some sort of sliding scale of capital gains tax that you would pay depending on how long you held the property for. You buy and sell within a year, boom, gov takes 80% of profits. 5 years, 50% of profits. 10 years, regular old capital gains tax.
That would be a tax that would be aimed at speculation.

This one they cooked up is just making them look like the asshats they are. And now they’re backpedaling and still don’t have anything that makes any real sense. Vancouver and the LM is doomed, what a craphole.

#8 Lost....but not leased on 03.27.18 at 6:20 pm

Gooooo NDP…..to hell

#9 Jungle on 03.27.18 at 6:21 pm

In GTA condos surging and detach holding. Interesting times.

#10 Millennial Realist on 03.27.18 at 6:21 pm

Wow!

Kathleen Wynne just won the Ontario election.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-liberals-daycare-election-budget-1.4594803

No way the Conservatards can match this kind of chutzpah. Rumors are there will be more, maybe a Liberal tax cut as well.

The sad blue party of the Boomers is about to sail off into the sunset, totally out of touch with what young adults care about today. See you later, Dougie!

https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2018/03/26/online-guerrillas-take-aim-at-pc-leader-doug-ford.html

#11 Brian1 on 03.27.18 at 6:22 pm

I haven’t seen the democrats this angry since they were ordered to give up their slaves.

#12 Reximus on 03.27.18 at 6:25 pm

Here’s the 416 trend to get used to: condo owners, having gained a lot of equity of late on their units, selling and buying freeholds as their households grow beyond what strata units can do for them

So the property ladder has a legit new rung as a supply of move-up buyer

#13 Bobs ur uncle on 03.27.18 at 6:26 pm

Not to mention, further complicating things:

“Also, properties valued at below $400,000 in urban areas such as Metro Vancouver and Greater Victoria will be exempt if owned by a British Columbian. ”

Huh?

#14 TEMPLE on 03.27.18 at 6:30 pm

The Dippers blew this in every possible way. Big surprise. Not.

Are you ever going to stop whining about this? Face it, your ideology lost this round and for once, government did the right thing and closed a too-open market and actually protected its constituents against predation by the rich. The tax is a good solution to a problem that was completely intractable by any other method. BC is for British Columbians first. Not second, not after Alberta, but first. After that we can talk about grandma from Ontario getting to own a “vacation” condo in a market experiencing a full on housing crisis.

#15 Debtslavecreator on 03.27.18 at 6:30 pm

Left wing brain disease
Affects most politicians in Canadzuela
These deranged idiots use words like “fairness”, “equality”, “inclusive” to justify their extortion and fraud as they look to anyone smarter and or more successful than them with envy and steal what others have to satisfy what they think they deserve
They also think running massive deficits is making an “investment “
The good news is socialism is collapsing as we speak and as it always does but these deranged left wing crooks will get more crazy as we steadily approach the inevitable sovereign debt crisis by late 2021
Watch your ASSets

#16 Our pal val on 03.27.18 at 6:34 pm

Beware of Doug

#17 Foreign Canadian Millenial on 03.27.18 at 6:34 pm

In Toronto the immodestly dressed HR Manager tells me that I should work for free to gain Canadian experience but how will that pay the rent?
Why should the HR Manager earn a salary, while I, an immigrant to Canada, work for free? Why am I even on this blog? I will never afford real estate in Canada if all of us have to work for free.

#18 Our pal val on 03.27.18 at 6:36 pm

CHeck this out https://www.blogto.com/city/2018/03/beware-doug-signs-pop-around-toronto/

#19 MF on 03.27.18 at 6:36 pm

#10 Millennial Realist on 03.27.18 at 6:21 pm

Too little too late.

She’s done. Voter fatigue with the Liberals will finish off the party.

Doesn’t matter who runs against her from the PC’s.

MF

#20 Zapstrap on 03.27.18 at 6:36 pm

Let’s not forget … crooked Christy had to go … and I am no dipper.

#21 MF on 03.27.18 at 6:39 pm

#12 Reximus on 03.27.18 at 6:25 pm

Correct. Except for one minor thing: the expenses of houses are beyond any condo owner’s pay scale.

It’s easy to maintain your 6-800 sq ft condo, but not much more difficult and expensive for a house.

Watch condos go higher and higher.

MF

#22 BlogDog123 on 03.27.18 at 6:42 pm

The Ontario Liberals are offering free childcare for toddlers and preschoolers. But wait, that’s not enough billions of our money redistributed…

1) Just like all-day kindergarden, they’ll find the most expensive labour force to deliver daycare: OCT certified teachers! Yes, DB pensions, strict union rules will ensure only the top price is paid to deliver this service whether you want it or not.
2) They’ll send an army of government workers to mow your front lawn. Yes, again, OFL members will clear those pesky dandelions and weeds. Spring is here and you’re wondering who’s gonna do all that work for you.
3) Free university education for everyone! Yes, there’s only $312,000,000,000 or so of debt, but who’s really counting! Even if you don’t have the aptitude for higher education, go anyways, meet new people, it’s free!
4) Free nose jobs, boob jobs, whatever it takes, June 7th is coming and the libs need your vote.
5) Virtue signalling money to float around, look for various injustices and throw some more money at the problem.
6) Is your bum itchy, don’t worry, your Ontario Government will “invest” in the finest toilet paper and deliver it to you, with a friendly government employee to wipe. An army of bureaucrats will have $1B databases to track all the bums in the province…

Provincial debt? Boring! There’s an election to win…

#23 Andrew Woburn on 03.27.18 at 6:42 pm

“There’s something Trump is as eager to hide as any entanglements with Russians and porn stars: The man who gave us “The Art of the Deal” couldn’t get Congress to approve a resolution supporting Mother’s Day. Even if he brought flowers.”

The Great Negotiator strikes again. Apparently right wing pundits are apoplectic. They think the budget just passed was basically a Democrat’s dream.

You would think the Base would be horribly disappointed but some observers think they really care more about God and guns than economics. Maybe.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/trump-has-played-his-supporters-for-suckers/2018/03/26/ecbc91ce-3130-11e8-8abc-22a366b72f2d_story.html?utm_term=.674adba1ca76&wpisrc=nl_most&wpmm=1

#24 45north on 03.27.18 at 6:43 pm

And on and on. Just imagine the amount of red tape, government overhead and bureaucrats necessary to figure all this out, document it and force compliance – surely enough to eat up most of the revenue expected.

40 years in the Federal Civil Service gave me a good look at government programs. The politicians have proposed legislation and are now revising it. The BC civil servants then have to draft regulations to enact legislation. They have never dealt with anything like this starting with a tax on property. Right now BC Assessment deals with property, not who owns it. Suppose a million properties in BC, who is going to assign ownership? How are they going to do it? When is it going to be done? BC Assessment has an appeal process. What’s the appeal process for ownership? Typical government procedure would be to phase this in over four years – first year would be pilot on a limited geographical area with no revenue implications. Second year would expand the geographical area with trial taxes levied – people would get some kind of estimate but wouldn’t actually have to pay it. Third year they would and the fourth year it would cover the whole province. This is not what Comrade Horgan is promising – the whole thing is going to be up and running by Christmas. What about appeals to the Supreme Court – what is proposed is contrary to common law – sounds like an invitation to a class action suit. This is a black hole.

#25 MF on 03.27.18 at 6:43 pm

#9 Jungle on 03.27.18 at 6:21 p

Watch for detached to start surging as well. There is way too much demand for any sort of price decrease.

The narrative that the GTA is “crashing” on this blog is simply false. I wish it were true, but reality is miles away from it.

MF

#26 Smoke Signals on 03.27.18 at 6:45 pm

Townhouses in Pickering, just east of Toronto, are mysteriously catching on fire. Probably just the beginning of convenient insurance claims.

#27 I’m stupid on 03.27.18 at 6:46 pm

I went to an open house on the weekend. As I walked in the agent told me the home was sold conditionally on financing. And that 60 people came threw in 2 days. He said I’m welcome to have a look. As I was tourning the property he kept screaming “the boom is back baby” I kid you not. I thought to myself if you were my agent I’d fire you because of the property was as popular as stated why would you accept a conditional offer especially one based on financing.

#28 Reximus on 03.27.18 at 6:48 pm

#14 “BC is for British Columbians first. Not second, not after Alberta, but first’

BC is in Canada, it’s not a separate entity…you sound like Trump

#29 acdel on 03.27.18 at 6:51 pm

I hate the fact that so many Canadian’s are turning on each other, are we a country or not??

The West Coast dippers “REALLY” do not understand on how much money pours into B.C., especially the interior the ALTA, B.C. border, never mind the rest of Canadians that have purchased or take their vacations in that province. Canadian’s spend billions in that Province and yet the Foreign Greenie hypocrites financed by out of country special interest (so called green groups) dictate what should be done to the rest of this country.

You hypocrites are in for a rude awakening! I am looking forward to it!

#30 No more NDP on 03.27.18 at 6:51 pm

Even though the NDP government just tweaked the speculation tax today I still feel that the future for BC is worrisome. The NDP government has no clue about the consequences of their ideology driven “bleed the wealthy” agenda. With a 0.5 to 2% “spec” tax just tweaked, an increased school tax on homes over 3M, increased transfer tax on more expensive homes, 20% foreign buyer tax, increased tax on income >150K, Vancouver’s 1% empty house tax, coupled with increasing interest rates and a difficult to pass mortgage stress test, is a severe BC housing crash inevitable?

I suspect that a housing correction will spiral down far beyond what the NDP envisioned. The NDP has the naive delusion that they can engineer a mild to moderate BC housing correction affecting only areas that they designate so that those who currently want a home but cannot afford it, will be in a position to become property owners. Of course it will be positive for renters since rents will decrease if property values plunge enough. Unfortunately, a severe housing crash coupled with NDP’s hostility towards oil and US imposed punishing softwood lumber and newspaper print tariffs, will possibly cause a mostly made in BC recession with high unemployment. This will swell the population of basement dwellers rather than BC resident property owners or renters with jobs. Going back to 2008 we can see what a housing crash can do to an economy.

Also, nobody in his or her right mind would invest their investment dollars in the “Socialist Republic of B.C.” which will impede or stop the creation of new jobs. The inevitable fall in BC tax revenue would of course severely curtail the spending agenda of the NDP.

The NDP and other left inclined political parties (including our federal liberals with a marxist leaning PM and finance minister) tend to make rosy assumptions how much revenue they get by jacking up taxes everywhere but not realizing that investing capital is very mobile and people will adjust their behaviour to avoid tax grabs or just move away from BC to more tax friendly jurisdictions. Socialists never learn.

Unfortunately, for many BC residents the reign of the NDP will be a painful one, being unemployed or under water with their mortgage, many of whom probably voted for the NDP. The only bright spot is that the NDP will be booted out at the next election due to their gross incompetence in “managing” the provincial economy.

#31 AGuyInVancouver on 03.27.18 at 6:54 pm

#7 Wheresthemath on 03.27.18 at 6:13 pm
When I first heard about the spec tax, I could only shake my head. Its not a spec tax. To me, a spec tax would be some sort of sliding scale of capital gains tax that you would pay depending on how long you held the property for. You buy and sell within a year, boom, gov takes 80% of profits. 5 years, 50% of profits. 10 years, regular old capital gains tax.
That would be a tax that would be aimed at speculation…
_ _ _
As far as I know it is outside the purview of provincial governments to levy capital gains taxes, perhaps Garth can correct me if I’m wrong. Given that, the BC NDP had to use whatever tools they had in their arsenal.

After 16 years being governed by plunderers who looked the other way with money laundering and real estate chicanery, Horgan and the NDP are a refreshing change.

#32 Outrageous! on 03.27.18 at 6:56 pm

So, looking at my gas bill for last month, the cost of fuel was $66.29, and the Carbon Levy was $48.12. Oh and did you know you pay GST on top of the Carbon Levy? Yup. A tax on a tax. And since I had already paid income tax on that money it is a tax on a tax on a tax. And since the oil companies already paid royalties on the gas it’s a tax on a tax on a tax on a tax. T^4 for short. Plus all the ATCO riders of course. So I paid $206.63 to get $66.20 worth of gas plus income tax on that amount so let’s call it $300 for short. No wonder everyone is broke. And the government still needs a deficit.

When comes the revolution? Are we going to have to wait until after the economic collapse? Because a system like this is clearly not sustainable.

I also noticed that for part of the month the gas cost was only $1.733/GJ. How on earth is anybody making any money when gas goes for $1.733/GJ in the winter? This summer could be ugly for Alberta.

Meanwhile they Rockyview School Board is raising busing fees as much as they can and reducing routes because they have to pay the carbon tax too just to get the kidlets to school, and they can’t afford it. And get this, the province caps what they can charge, so on the one hand they have to pay the carbon tax but on the other they can’t raise fees! The government is completely insane!

But I do have to admit that BC is proving to be even more insane! Where do they think people are gong to get all this money?

#33 Andrew Woburn on 03.27.18 at 6:56 pm

#4 scooby doo on 03.27.18 at 6:08 pm
Wynne now offering free child care for pre-schoolers. It has to end.
==================
Clearly this is pre-election BS.

But, it this country wants both educated women in the workforce and sustainable growth in population base, we need to stop treating child care as solely a private burden for women. We need to realize we all have a stake in it and that social investment is required and appropriate.

#34 Reynolds531 on 03.27.18 at 6:57 pm

#6 reality is Stark

I hope the 500% increase in woman calling your buddy isn’t true. Then again as a card carrying member of match.com……fresh meat.

Ok maybe not fresh…

#35 Mattl on 03.27.18 at 6:57 pm

The spec tax is just plain stupid. The area we are in, on the lake and full of Albertans is outside the taxable area, by about 2km’s. The NDP clearly has no idea what they are doing. Abby in but Harrison out?

For the record I don’t support any area being in, the tax is a joke.

Should be a fun 4-12 years out here, waching Carole James flailing, making up for her embarrassing years as opp leader. By further embarrassing herself.

#36 joblo on 03.27.18 at 6:59 pm

when is the Belfountain General store opening?

Friday, she be. – Garth

#37 HoweStreet.com on 03.27.18 at 7:00 pm

Ross Kay on HoweStreet.com Radio:
How to Time the Real Estate Market.
Dangers of a pro-tenant city council.

https://www.howestreet.com/2018/03/26/how-to-time-the-real-estate-market/

#38 HowDeepThePain? on 03.27.18 at 7:00 pm

TREBs numbers I do not know…

The Narrative will be the same though…”Prices will hold…Lack of Supply”

Yet some 25,000 homes listed in the golden horseshoe area…7,500 over $1 Million…

#39 Bob on 03.27.18 at 7:07 pm

I really think this blog has not fully understood Vancouver. All the evidence I see is of a very strong market with no let up. Detached homes over $3 million might be soft but everything else is selling at an extremely brisk pace. 300 plus families move to Canada every week, A lot of them come with money and want to buy a home. Heroically rates are still low and even with 2 to 3 percentage points added they are never going to be where we saw rates in the eighties and early nineties.

#40 Darryl on 03.27.18 at 7:10 pm

#13 Bobs ur uncle on 03.27.18 at 6:26 pm
Not to mention, further complicating things:
“Also, properties valued at below $400,000 in urban areas such as Metro Vancouver and Greater Victoria will be exempt if owned by a British Columbian. ”
Huh?
——————————————————————
But only on Tuesdays if you are wearing blue and only on Fridays if you are wearing yellow except if ………

#41 When the Whip Comes Down on 03.27.18 at 7:12 pm

Whaatt? Vreu is back???

#42 Darryl on 03.27.18 at 7:12 pm

#4 scooby doo on 03.27.18 at 6:08 pm
Wynne now offering free child care for pre-schoolers. It has to end.
——————————————————————-
She will also offer free lunch at the Keg once a month for all if her numbers don’t get better before the election .

#43 AK on 03.27.18 at 7:14 pm

“The Dippers blew this in every possible way.”
——————————————————————-
Why would anybody vote NDP…

#44 Cut Their Nose Off to Spite Their Face on 03.27.18 at 7:15 pm

No one likes surprises.

At least with the NDP in charge in BC – you always know what you are going to get.

YIKES!!!

#45 Whatcha Minnie on 03.27.18 at 7:16 pm

My wife thinks I am going to my dads place for the weekend to help him cut wood but really going to a friends place and will be learning to to forge my own jewelry so I can give my wife the dream wedding ring she wanted ever since she was a teen.

#46 I saw Ogopogo on 03.27.18 at 7:16 pm

More South Okanagan craziness !!! Let’s ask double !!!

BC Assessment 2017 $ 723,820 ( now farm land )
BC Assessment 2016 $1,371,000
https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDA5NTFQUg==

Listed today at $ 2,099,000
https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/19226714/1125-MUNSON-AVE-PENTICTON-British-Columbia-V2A8S5-PE-UplandsRedlands

#47 Linda on 03.27.18 at 7:17 pm

I’m presuming that figure of 2,276 was since January 1 of this calendar year. So properties are still changing hands, albeit at a reduced rate compared to last year.

Yep, much envy coming out of BC. The outcome of the new policy may be the exodus of tourist dollars & folks selling off their second properties (if they can find a buyer). As for purchasing a property in BC, unless one intends to move there permanently why bother? I expect the rental market to be robust & prices to be competitive. Be interesting to see the impact of these new policies & I am sure that if the impact is negative, those who are currently chanting ‘BC for BC residents’ will attribute the blame to out of towners/foreigners as well. For sure, there is absolutely no way they’d accept their own actions resulted in the outcome – after all, according to them the high prices in Vancouver are solely attributable to the sales to foreigners/out of towners. Because you know, they are all of them money laundering – apparently the belief is that no one could possibly have money unless they engage in criminal activity.

#48 Common sense on 03.27.18 at 7:17 pm

Wealth tax upcoming in how many years in a province or country near to you?

#49 Who Cares About BC on 03.27.18 at 7:20 pm

Everyone is headed East out of BC with a one way ticket from what I am hearing.

Look at those South Okanagan numbers. Worse than Vancouver if you factor in supporting economy.

Only people moving in are rich boomers.

Anyone care to guess who picks up the slack after this demographic disappears in those areas after 15-20 years?

#50 renter in Surrey on 03.27.18 at 7:21 pm

So bottom line – NDP has retreated. Prices will keep hovering at current levels or crawling up. Business is usual. B20 was another nothing burger. Am I missing something?

BTW, I got eviction notice, time to pack my stuff and look for new rental, damn. Renting is fun, isn’t it. Well, may be prices will go down and I can buy in 20-25 years. Will see.

#51 Lawnboy on 03.27.18 at 7:28 pm

My best indication of market troubles, say Black Friday 1987 has always been the autotrader! You know things are heading for Midland when you see an Edlebrock Highrise manfold being sacrificed for 10 cents on the dollar!

And what’s beside it in the back of the barn…..along with the aforementioned performance upgrade….. a fresh litter of kittens (or a puppy for Garth).

Yup…the toys go just before all H breaks!

#52 BC NDP on 03.27.18 at 7:28 pm

I think that the BC NDP realize that a mass exodus to which they are recording at present kills the business community and can cause just as much damage as a major housing downturn.

Pick your poison.

I don’t think that the BC NDP can stop the #leaveBC movement. The effects will be felt over the next decade.

#53 Nonplused on 03.27.18 at 7:28 pm

#10 Millennial Realist

So, will this daycare free daycare require parents to prove they are both working or can mom sign up and head for the gym or go shopping?

Another poorly thought out program. Anytime you make something “free”, demand goes way up. When demand goes ways up, prices rise. So the government is going to have to pay considerably more than they figure. And they are going to have to raise taxes on everyone, including the families they are supposedly helping.

I don’t think I like this trend of socializing the cost of raising children. If you can’t afford children, maybe you shouldn’t have children. We don’t really need any more there are already too many people “out of the labor force” and the machines are only going to make that worse. By the time a baby born today finishes university there may in fact be almost no jobs left that require much in the way of human oversight. Although I suppose at that point we also won’t need much in the way of free daycare. Does Wynne even keep up with the trends? Or is she just politicing?

And if they are going to provide free daycare, one thing I would like to see added to the bill is free summer camps for children in K-12. Before and after care quits for the summer and sending the kidlets off to “Adventure Camp” for 6 weeks is damn expensive! Most 2 income families have to do this because what else do you do with your 8 year old in July when you have to work? The day cares run right through but for most working parents “school breaks” are a seriously difficult issue to deal with, one of you has to take vacation and typically that only adds to 6 weeks a year between the 2 of you. With the amount of breaks the teachers take, you can be pretty much out of vacation time by the time June rolls around.

#54 Carlos from BC on 03.27.18 at 7:30 pm

Why all the hate? Good! Glad the NDP did this. I rent with my family in Richmond. Happy to do so. But house prices are so out of wack that anything that drops them helps.

As its been pointed out many many many times here, the percentage of income spent on housing costs and ownership (condo, shack, house, whatever) is way out of line. Let the correction ensue, with or without the NDPs help. They’re only folly is that they didn’t do the advance sell job with info and details right after the budget was dropped. Big whoop-dee-doo.

Why do you think higher taxes will bring lower house costs? – Garth

#55 NOSTRADAMUS on 03.27.18 at 7:33 pm

NO STORY!

It would seem that after nearly 15 years of nothing but good time some lessons would have been learned. In my opinion the on going reckless abandon by todays borrowers is due to the lack of experience with the consequences of debt.
In 2008 Margaret Atwood discussed this point in a Wall Street Journal article, “without memory there is no debt” put another way, without a story, there is no debt.
A story is a string of actions occurring over time – one damn thing after another, and debt happens as a result of actions occurring over time. Therefore, any debt involves a plot line, how you got into debt, what you did, said and thought while you were in there, and then, depending on whether the ending is to be happy or sad, how you got out of debt, or else how you got further and further into it until you became overwhelmed by it and sank from view. The problem today for most people, there is no “story” about the consequences of debt .
As M’s Atwood concluded, “there’s nothing we human beings can imagine, including debt, that can’t be turned into a game- something done for entertainment. And, in reverse, there are no games, however frivolous, that can also be played very seriously, and some very unpleasantly.
But when the play turns nasty in dead earnest, the game becomes, a hard game.
In hard games the stakes are high, the play is dirty, and the outcome may well be a puddle of gore on the floor.
There is likely only one way the current lack of fiscal control turns out. History is replete with individuals and countries that have attempted the same limits of profligate spending. For a multitude of heavily indebted individuals the ending of their particular story is soon to be written.
Just be careful where you step.

#56 Move to BC on 03.27.18 at 7:35 pm

Hahahahahaha.

You can’t even joke about bringing cash there anymore.

The cash you bring will be spent on the $1.70 per liter gas prices.

There are people in Surrey getting eviction notices and they are still clinging onto hope. The BC disease of perma-denial.

#57 AK on 03.27.18 at 7:38 pm

#10 Millennial Realist on 03.27.18 at 6:21 pm
“Wow!
Kathleen Wynne just won the Ontario election.”
——————————————————————-
Not a chance. Dream on….

#58 Sam Cooper has Left BC on 03.27.18 at 7:41 pm

Hardcore Vancouverite and the guy who pulled the curtains back to wake up Vancouver with what is going on.

The guy deserves the order of Canada.

He knows that sometimes it is better to cut your losses and he knows it is finished in BC. It has been for a longtime. I think the final straw was his big push on solid ideas that the NDP mostly cold shouldered.

Enjoy Ottawa, man.

#59 AK on 03.27.18 at 7:41 pm

#42 Darryl on 03.27.18 at 7:12 pm
#4 scooby doo on 03.27.18 at 6:08 pm
“Wynne now offering free child care for pre-schoolers. It has to end.”
——————————————————————-
“She will also offer free lunch at the Keg once a month for all if her numbers don’t get better before the election .”
——————————————————————

LMFAO. Desperate Times Call for Desperate Measures.

Bring on June 07, 2018…

#60 renter in Surrey on 03.27.18 at 7:43 pm

#56 There are people in Surrey getting eviction notices and they are still clinging onto hope.
———————————————————

I was sarcastic.

#61 Figmund Sreud on 03.27.18 at 7:45 pm

… what will this do to real estate prices on the left coast?
_______________________

Well, … here at Point Holmes:
https://www.facebook.com/pages/Point-Holmes-Comox-BC/744449932280994

… sellers bonanza continues unabated! Anything that goes onto the market, is declared sold to the highest bidder, … well before the signage contract guy has a chance to stake the for sale sign up front.

F.S., Comox, BC.

#62 Mark on 03.27.18 at 7:48 pm

“#1 Victoria Real Estate Update on 03.27.18 at 6:00 pm “

A good synopsis as usual. Might want to add, briefly, that it is quite common for RE markets to peak (as Canada’s did, particularly in the GTA/GVR in 2013), but for the Realtor-claimed prices to keep rising. The result of the sales mix shifting as highly leveraged market participants move heaven and Earth to create the allusion (delusion) of rising prices.

Appraisal fraud, flipping scams, fraudulent reporting of related entity transactions to the MLS as though they were arms-length, “assignment flipping”, and various other manipulations are the tools deployed by the sell side to try and sucker a few more dollars and a few more dummies to the table. And vitally important for the landlord families in particular who face a real battle for solvency as prices now start falling from their 2013 plateau.

Listeners to me on the blog or elsewhere I that I make presentations, those under the advice of bright people like Ross Kay, understand that the sales mix is highly influential on the Realtor-quoted ‘average selling prices’, and that houses, unlike stocks or bonds, are not homogenous asset classes. The hypothetical ‘average house’ that transacted in 2013 is very different than the hypothetical “average house” that transacts today simply due to the fact that the first time buyers are largely absent today, and that large numbers of units transacting today are relatively new luxury units compared to a more regularly distributed transactional mix experienced in 2013.

#63 Chipshot on 03.27.18 at 7:53 pm

“So, no big increase in rental stock. No drop in rents. Certainly no collapse in urban real estate prices, but a wounded market with economic implications plus families with trapped equity. Remember – when assets lose favour, buyers go away.”

Umm, that’s the idea isn’t it ? Plus it’s just been explained finally like yesterday ? What did you expect overnight ? A Dow selloff ?

Slow the market by making the buyers back off so the sellers are forced to drop their prices. It’s what they got voted in for, to cool the market off and what this blog has preached for years now. Rents will drop accordingly and the FOMO will learn a valuable life lesson. It’s a win win.

To think new taxes will make a market correct is flawed logic. Wait and see. – Garth

#64 'Anybody can ask anything': Check out what $6.98M gets you in Vancouver on 03.27.18 at 7:53 pm

A 96-year old Vancouver home described as “just needing a little TLC” has been listed for sale for $6.98 million – almost 150 per cent more than what it sold for over two years ago.

The aging 2,372 square foot three-story home in the west-end of downtown Vancouver sold for $2.8 million near the end of 2015. It was reported to have received 11 offers then and sold in two weeks.

Now the same house is back on the market and the owners are asking for well over double that price.

“LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION!!!” are the first words used to describe the house, with four pictures of the property showing a fenced up front yard wedged between newer homes on each side.

Realtor Sydney Deng describes the four-bedroom home as a “beautiful old timer house” with a “well laid-out floorplan with beautiful, original inlaid floors,” in the listing. But, there are no pictures of what the house looks like on the inside.

Only in Van would anybody care about a single listing priced for a fool. Focus on what matters. – Garth

#65 Mark on 03.27.18 at 7:55 pm

“300 plus families move to Canada every week, A lot of them come with money and want to buy a home.”

Average wealth of newcomers to Canada is barely enough for a downpayment on an apartment rental, a few months living expenses, and maybe a used car. And Canada generally receives migrants who are fairly well off in their own countries, which should give you a fairly good idea of the wealth disparity between Canada and the nations from which Canadian immigrants emigrate.

Evidence for any foreign investment of any statistical significant in GTA/GVR is scant to almost non-existent. The “Chinese with suitcases of money” (occasionally Persians, Russians, Arabs, etc.) is a most disgustingly concocted and inaccurate meme indeed designed to appeal to some of the worst amongst us.

#66 Wheresthemath on 03.27.18 at 7:59 pm

#31 AGuyInVancouver on 03.27.18 at 6:54 pm
#7 Wheresthemath on 03.27.18 at 6:13 pm
When I first heard about the spec tax, I could only shake my head. Its not a spec tax. To me, a spec tax would be some sort of sliding scale of capital gains tax that you would pay depending on how long you held the property for. You buy and sell within a year, boom, gov takes 80% of profits. 5 years, 50% of profits. 10 years, regular old capital gains tax.
That would be a tax that would be aimed at speculation…
_ _ _
As far as I know it is outside the purview of provincial governments to levy capital gains taxes, perhaps Garth can correct me if I’m wrong. Given that, the BC NDP had to use whatever tools they had in their arsenal.

After 16 years being governed by plunderers who looked the other way with money laundering and real estate chicanery, Horgan and the NDP are a refreshing change.
———————————————————
Thanks for the answer. Makes sense. Still a disaster for the NDP. And trust me, I have no love lost for Crusty and her gang of crooks. Couldn’t be happier to see them go. Not terribly enamored with the NDP. Choice between a giant douche and a turd sandwich. But then again, it usually is with gov.
Should be some good popcorn viewing while they flounder around with this one.

#67 -=jwk=- on 03.27.18 at 7:59 pm

We’ve been renting in Toronto and are getting kicked out (for the third time) as our landlord is selling the property to cash out.

When you checked your landlords references – you DID check references right?- did this issue come up?

If you are going to rent, rent from a professional with a good track record. If they just bought the place, and are losing money every month, just say no!

#68 Hamsterwheelie on 03.27.18 at 7:59 pm

What’s wrong with living within your means? If you could afford a house in April of 2017 and tried to outbid everyone but didn’t get it and now you could buy that same house for $100 000 less but won’t? Who does that and why? New builds are dropping their prices because demand has waned & despite developers crying the blues about government preserving greenbelts & driving prices up (not true – the need to make max profit, rising labour costs due to labour shortages in the trades & increased material costs are driving up new house prices) there’s now better deals to be had if you don’t mind living in an unwalkable ‘community’.
If you could wrap your head around buying a condo then why not buy a whole house and rent out half or 2/3 of it? Get a place to live for free – worry less about what the value is, what interest rates are. Sure you’re living in a house that’s been duplexed or triplexed but still lots less neighbours than a condo, and you can take the unit with the porch, garage and garden.
Oh yeah – just one more little thing, its not Toronto or Van, it’s Hamilton, a city, with a thumping little heart and a great quality of life. I never would have imagined I could be so happy in a place I thought was all about steel mills when actually its more about the 100 waterfalls, escarpment, waterfront and a great walk score. Hard not to love a place with so much opportunity, beautiful housing stock and interesting people that actually have time to talk to you. Please don’t bother telling me how crap Hamilton is – you definitely don’t know about the great stuff if you haven’t been living here for the last 5 years & if you think where you are is worth (literally) a million dollars more – consider how much time you spend inside your home, curtains shut and ask yourself if it truly matters that much. :-)

#69 Doing it right on the left coast on 03.27.18 at 8:02 pm

I love you Garth.

In a macho, hairy, barrel chested, hetero-normative, alpha wolf/pack wolf, kind of way…, of course.

It is well researched and witty posts that keep me coming back every day! I know more about taxes, government policy, real estate and investing in Canada from reading your posts than any other single source. I recommend it to anyone who is willing to listen. And did I mention it’s free!

Keep fighting the good fight!

Turner 2019!

#70 For those about to flop... on 03.27.18 at 8:11 pm

Pink Pollen falling in Vancouver.

These guys paid 1.7 for a 1950 build in May of last year.

The assessment went slightly backwards to 1.63

I think Smartalox lives down that way,so he can probably go and ask them how it’s going…

M43BC

1821 UPLAND DR VANCOUVER paid 1.7 May 2017 asking 1.78

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAwM0ZGVg==

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/1821-upland-drive

#71 oncebittwiceshy on 03.27.18 at 8:12 pm

Chipshot: “It’s a win win.”

“To think new taxes will make a market correct is flawed logic. Wait and see. – Garth”

<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

You do realize that you are both right, Garth.

Chipshot is simply viewing the repercussions of this tax somewhat myopically, but he is right. He just doesn't know how right he might be.

You have a more macroscopic view of the situation knowing that the B.C. housing market was headed for disaster anyhow.

These taxes simply push the markets over the cliff sooner and the taxes will be ingrained in the marketplace forever. Nothing good every comes from increased taxation.

#72 'Anybody can ask anything' on 03.27.18 at 8:15 pm

Re: #68

Long live Hamilton!

#73 backwardsevolution on 03.27.18 at 8:19 pm

Lots of real estate pumpers on this site today, pumping for all they’re worth. Desperation?

#74 Andrew Woburn on 03.27.18 at 8:22 pm

It is rumoured that, although this blog teams with cat lovers, there are one or two dog fanciers aboard. This is for them.

– Dogs Prefer You Talk to Them in ‘Dog Talk’

http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/seriouslyscience/2018/03/13/dogs-prefer-when-you-talk-to-them-in-dog-talk/#.WrrfaqjwaM_

#75 lawnboy on 03.27.18 at 8:23 pm

#68 Hammer(ster)wheelie

1. Stop that, you might start a stampede!
2. And it’s 1000 falls.

Just sayin.

#76 DZH on 03.27.18 at 8:24 pm

If there isn’t a massive housing correction in the GTA in the next 12 months I’m leaving Canada for good. I’ve been a dutiful saver and with my job I can have a much higher standard of living elsewhere. In truth I’m only here as a favor to my Boomer parents. The moral narcissism, oligopolies and weather are enough, but running up debt to buy votes is now a threat to my kids.

#77 Laughable on 03.27.18 at 8:25 pm

Re: #65

Change your name to Off-the-Mark.

Swing and a miss.

#78 april on 03.27.18 at 8:26 pm

#37 – Ross Kay goes all around the mulberry bush and never gives a straight answer. I guess one has to be a paying client and for that one has to have a certain amount of money.

#79 akashic record on 03.27.18 at 8:27 pm

Pre-school age is extremely important phase of child development, it’s a unique window of opportunity to shape personal development.

Anyone can read about Maria Montessori, who developed the program for this age, which is still the best. I can tell this from personal experience.

I don’t trust though government to run even a decent pre-school program, especially not today. It would probably cause more harm than good. The current education system is run by failed teachers, who morphed into consultants, who direct teachers who could make it in the classroom.

Bottom line: if you can afford Montessori per-school go for it, it’s worth it – otherwise stay away from the overcrowded, ideologically and professionally screwed up government run daycare system.

#80 oncebittwiceshy on 03.27.18 at 8:28 pm

Bob: “I really think this blog has not fully understood Vancouver. All the evidence I see is of a very strong market with no let up.”

<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

It's too bad that the realtors don't agree with you, Bob.

http://vancitycondoguide.com/bc-government-revises-property-speculation-tax/

"No further changes appear to be in the works. With Vancouver detached sales hitting a twenty year low in the month of February it’s hard to imagine this bodes well for a segment already under siege. This could also force the hand of satellite families and out of province homeowners who will face substantial taxation on a yearly basis."

#81 Hello on 03.27.18 at 8:31 pm

#62

Yo, Ross Kay, is that you?

#82 Bobty on 03.27.18 at 8:37 pm

Garth in Montreal high property and so the housing is afordable oven with taxes. Any comment or you ignore such questions?

#83 the Jaguar on 03.27.18 at 8:37 pm

#14 TEMPLE on 03.27.18 at 6:30 pm
The Dippers blew this in every possible way. Big surprise.

Are you ever going to stop whining about this? Face it, your ideology lost this round and for once, government did the right thing and closed a too-open market and actually protected its constituents against predation by the rich. The tax is a good solution to a problem that was completely intractable by any other method. BC is for British Columbians first. Not second, not after Alberta, but first. After that we can talk about grandma from Ontario getting to own a “vacation” condo in a market experiencing a full on housing crisis.

Yawn. Mercy. It’s gas bags like this who really illustrate what’s behind the envy, jealousy, and failure to admit that for decades Albertans have been solid contributors to many small BC economies. Many who own property have family history in BC, care about the local environment, contribute to local initiatives, consider themselves western Canadians with shared and beneficial economic interests. Until the moment some arrogant gas bag takes a swing at us. Albertans are not in the habit of turning away from a fight where honour is to be preserved. There are other wines to drink, after all. We don’t need a government order to begin our own boycott.
Lock Photon Torpedoes, Mr. Sulu. Shields up.
Beam down the landing party.
I like the menu listed on the chalkboard at the Bell Fountain Store. Good value and an interesting and tasty selection.

#84 Bobty on 03.27.18 at 8:38 pm

Correction high property tax

#85 Still kicking, but getting close on 03.27.18 at 8:41 pm

The slowdown has started.

People still spending their brains out. Hold tight.

Don’t worry about governments letting you down.

What is coming will have you soiling your pants.

The question of the day with be: “What the hell is going on?”

Coming to Canada soon.

#86 Long-Time Lurker on 03.27.18 at 8:41 pm

What? Tweedledum and Tweedledee didn’t let Humpty Dumpty fall off a wall? We have seen the enemy and he is us.

#87 For those about to flop... on 03.27.18 at 8:50 pm

This one is only a Possible Pinkie at this stage ,but I will share it will you guys before I file it away.

The guys on Point Grey Rd trying to get their 15.5 million back have something in common with this guy.

They both have an old product that they are trying to get top dollar for post peak in that segment.

The main difference is the the one on Point Grey Rd bought into the market in August 2015 with a waterfront property and have spent large portions of the last three years trying to get a refund after the market sagged in that segment.

These guys only got in late last year after coughing up slightly more than assessment at 14.1.

They thought it was worth it and now they have to find someone to pay over 15 million to make them whole after expenses.

I haven’t seen that happening much with my cases when someone absolutely needed to get a number on the Westside ,but the previous owner found these guys and now they are on the hunt themselves.

There is nothing to support the number they are asking with current conditions,but we do stuff differently here.

Could make money.

Could end up looking like Elmer Fudd…

M43BC

4777 2ND AVE W VANCOUVER paid 14.1 December 2017 asking 18.8

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/4777-w-2nd-avenue

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAwMDBIUQ==

#88 Doing it right on the left coast on 03.27.18 at 8:51 pm

@ 14 temple

“…government did the right thing and closed a too-open market and actually protected its constituents against predation by the rich. The tax is a good solution… BC is for British Columbians first. Not second, not after Alberta, but first. After that we can talk about grandma from Ontario…”

This is what we call nationalism. Or, in this case, provincialism, I guess… Usually frowned at in a free society. You know, equal rights and all that.

Government created this problem with: home owner grants, interest free loans to first time buyers, first time buyer grants, interest free loans for taxes to seniors, underwriting bad loans with CMHC, low interest rates, high regulations on housing (ie: mandating what door knobs to install!), restrictive zoning, restrictive residential tenancy acts, restrictive heritage regulations, capital gains free RE transactions, transfer taxes, registration fees and requirements and all sorts of other market interference.

The government consistently inflates demand for real estate and reduces supply.

The market is far from free, because of government. These policies do not protect constituents from predation.

The tax is not a solution. It is a problem for which the NDP are already having to find solutions.

The NDP are a joke and now another generation has to learn that lesson. Do you know why the Liberals were in power so long? Because people hate the NDP. They are a disaster party that can’t cobble together enough decent candidates to fill the ballots.

The guy in my riding was a nobody who got tossed from the RCMP for bad behaviour! The RCMP!

The libs woman had a CV with so many board positions I was asking why she’d stoop to politics?!

Learn what causes and creates prices in a market and you may see a different perspective. Prices are an important market indicator and provide valuable information on the health of a market and supply and demand.

And may I suggest you stop trying to punish your fellow Canadian citizens and have some respect for what they have accomplished.

ps: Unless you’re just tolling, in which case, nice one.

(And a thanks to Garth.)

#89 Rexx Rock on 03.27.18 at 8:52 pm

I’ve noticed alot of full times jobs avertised everywhere.They are low paying jobs but are great for students.These jobs are survival jobs and not family supporting jobs.I think alot of people are just getting by in this city.One co worker that works full time pays half just for rent.She’s 69 years old and is quite happy to retire next year but says she’ll have to leave beautiful Victoria because the cost of living is way to high.It was in the newspaper that there is alot of people are sleeping in their cars and vans.The new bylaw allows this because its so bad here.The only affordable housing in Victoria is your minivan!

#90 Ustabe on 03.27.18 at 8:54 pm

Does Garth send out a super secret memo when he is going to post NDP/BC porn?

Because some of you sure showed up all lubed and ready, eh?

Like monkeys in a cage, flinging poo…its not at all like you represent here in BC. Where I’m at things are stable, rental apartment blocks have recently been built, rental housing is tight but rents remain stable in the $1,200 range for a 2/3 bedroom house (and up of course). Employment across the board is good, cars are being sold, crab and prawns are being consumed.

Not much Metamucil because we don’t need it.

I guess everything is fake news until it fits your narrative.

My wife and I are doing a cross country this summer…I think it will be a pleasure to meet and enjoy folks across this country…tell me I’m wrong.

#91 Samuel on 03.27.18 at 9:04 pm

Can you imagine the headache assessing this tax when taking sales during the year into consideration?

#92 For those about to flop... on 03.27.18 at 9:07 pm

Pink Pollen falling in Richmond.

Here’s another one with no meat left on the bone.

Unlike the last guys,this one has a solid assessment at 1.94 and a product to sell that was constructed within the last 50 years.

We’ll see how it plays out.

Had some cases on this Avenue before ,and so it’s a bit of a hotbed…

M43BC

7840 MALAHAT AVE RICHMOND paid 1.7 February 2017 asking 1.81

https://www.zolo.ca/richmond-real-estate/7840-malahat-avenue

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDA1V1pZUA==

#93 TurnerNation on 03.27.18 at 9:07 pm

Gee it’s almost like there’s some kind of over-arching power, say a supra-national force or I don’t know a crown, working systematically to keep this tax colony on its knees.

Let’s review the few decades in the past:

Decimate Least Coast fishing and mining industries.
Force political and economic uncertainty via Seperatism.
Cripple Ontario with debt and unions
Fire , Flood and carbon tax the strongest province, AB.
Neo-liberalize the FIRE industry in BC.
We got anything left?

No, no I’m sure this is by accident. Disparate discord.
(Cough, Avro Arrow what you could have been.)

Here baby, here’s candy now let me take it away.

M42ON

#94 prairie person on 03.27.18 at 9:10 pm

The NDP solution, no thought, no analysis, no planning, rushed into as an easy solution has been a disaster. The Gulf Islands survive on summer cottagers and tourists. Take those away and everything collapses. There are no factory jobs. Extending the tax would have killed the market for all the idealistic market gardeners, for all the artisans who make their living during the summer months at places like the Salt Spring market. The NDP has been waiting in the wings for ten years. During that time what were they doing? They had years to work out understanding and policy. Does no one say here are the things we should think about, that we should have ready when we become government? Prices for houses on the islands would have collapsed if the NDP hadn’t excluded them from the tax. None of what they have done actually deals with the real problem. Money laundering on a large scale. It’s like a poor teacher who punishes an entire class for the bad behaviour of the few. It was time for Christy to go. No doubt about that but surely the NDP could have prepared itself for the possibility that they might become the government. Or were they gobsmacked and totally unprepared to become government?

#95 Laws of the Jungle BC on 03.27.18 at 9:14 pm

Ustabe – The banana republic of BC has turned anyone who is left into the current mutants googling garth turner, steve saretstky, mike martins and better dwelling for some kind of counseling.

As a unintended consequence, we have all now turned into savvy investors within the finance sector.

Google confirms this: as showing on the side where is says “people also search for” (the above names) when you search any of the above names. That means it is happening on mass and Google bots have picked up on this for predictive suggestions.

#96 Eh on 03.27.18 at 9:19 pm

MF

MF you are full of s#it.

Obviously, You stand for More Filth (MF).

#97 Gravy Train on 03.27.18 at 9:24 pm

#25 MF on 03.27.18 at 6:43 pm
“The narrative that the GTA is ‘crashing’ on this blog is simply false.”

Are you trying to convince Garth that he’s wrong? Why are you here? :)

The GTA is not crashing, nor will it. But houses in certain areas are losing a third or more of their value, and prices in general will melt lower over time. – Garth

#98 Chaddywack on 03.27.18 at 9:32 pm

“grandparented” not “grandfathered” Garth.

Don’t you remember that our great leader Justin Trudeau lectured us on gender neutrality recently?

He’s bringing peoplekind into the modern era!

#99 Everybody Calm Down on 03.27.18 at 9:33 pm

Weed will be legal soon.

Take a nice looooong hit of this.

Don’t choke! Puff, puff, pass, but if you’re gonna pay for it make sure you get your half.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtkWe_hlvbY

#100 Rasta on 03.27.18 at 9:37 pm

I’ve come to realize!

Real estate agents are being told to remove listings that sell under list.

Why?

Because, fewer sales looks far better then lower prices. The number of sales can go back up. Lower prices rarely do!

#101 Sydneysider on 03.27.18 at 9:38 pm

“With just a few days remaining in the only month that tells you what to do,”

june, v. U.S. colloq. and dial.

(dʒuːn)

[? f. the n.]

a. intr. To move in a lively fashion, hurry; to be restless or aimless; to wander around. b. trans. To drive briskly. rare.

   1869 Overland Monthly III. 127 A trig, smirk little horse is a ‘lace-horse’, and he often has to ‘june’ or ‘quill’.    1892 Dialect Notes I. 230 June-in’, running fast. ‘She came a-june-in’.’    1895 W. C. Gore in Inlander Nov. 61 June around, to be busy but not accomplish anything.    1903 A. Adams Log of Cowboy xiv. 228 To june a herd of cattle across in this manner would have been shameful.    1948 Amer. Speech XXIII. 305/1 You stay here and I’ll go down and june around awhile.

#102 Barb on 03.27.18 at 9:39 pm

Horgan’s such an idiot; James isn’t any better.
And Weaver? he’s wrinkling his ballet shoes, huffing and puffing with continued indignation at Site C approval and the LNG talks.

Gawd, what a mess this province is.

And we LOVE Albertans, despite what’s said here!

#103 Chimingin on 03.27.18 at 9:41 pm

#10 – Give me a break. I know moisters are dumb, but are they really THAT dumb? There is no such thing as “free” if it’s coming from the government. The kids themselves will be paying for this when they’re adults. Their kids will be, too. We have one of the largest deficits in the world. And anyway, the rest of us had to figure out child care on our own dime, and so should you. Honestly…I weep for the future.

#104 Mark on 03.27.18 at 9:48 pm

“#25 MF on 03.27.18 at 6:43 pm
“The narrative that the GTA is ‘crashing’ on this blog is simply false.””

A reversion of the sales mix adjustments that have plagued the GTA/GVR market since the 2013 peak may have the appearance of a ‘crash’ per the Realtor’s published numbers, but just as mix changes severely exaggerated the upside since the 2013 peak (stagnation ever since on individual identical properties), the mix changes being reverted will probably exaggerate the downside.

This is why using average Realtor selling prices is a very poor and inaccurate way of looking at a RE marketplace that has clearly experienced a large shift to the sales mix due to the vanquishing of first-time buyers (due to CMHC subprime mortgage insurance changes) and the onslaught of brand new luxury RE.

Unfortunately, and perhaps for entirely self-serving reasons, the Realtors, in the post-peak era, haven’t been all that interested in sharing comprehensive datasets. Even taking certain entities to court when they attempted to do so. The legal chill around such is why you don’t have a lot of rigorously scrutinized analysis of the shifting sales mix available in the public domain with respect to the GTA/GVR, but trust me, the banks have such data in-house and have been acting upon it.

#105 Rick on 03.27.18 at 10:00 pm

http://www.richmond-news.com/real-estate/numbered-companies-lose-10-townhouses-in-richmond-1.23209325?mzpfi=84390

Interesting read of chinese invester buying 10 townhouses using 2 numbered companies. This is just one that made it to the news. How many more out there that didn’t make the news is anyones guess.

Where in that article does it state he is Chinese? – Garth

#106 LS in Arbutus on 03.27.18 at 10:02 pm

FLOP

Check out North Shore Bubble on Twitter. A couple of juicy ones:

5930 Condor Pl
Purchased March 2016 $2,990,000
SOLD Jan 2018 $2,640,000
Assessed $3,178,000
$350,000 LOSS

701 Blueridge Ave
Purchased May 2016 $2,550,000
Listed Jan 2018 $2,678,000
REDUCED March 2018 by $398,000
Now listed at $2,280,000
Assessed $1,875,000
At least $300,000 loss if sold …

#107 Leo Trollstoy on 03.27.18 at 10:05 pm

I agree with Garth that the RE price peak in the Kingdom of 416 was last year in 2017

Inflation is also strong, deflation a myth that never existed

$US all day every day

You’re welcome!

#108 TEMP on 03.27.18 at 10:15 pm

So…we rent for about 3 months every winter on Vancouver Island. We’re willing to sign a 6 month lease at half the normal monthly rate in 2019 – and you can even use the place for 3 of the 6 months. Got something special you need to rent out?

No pets, no kids, good references…..

Thanks Comrade Horgan

#109 Pete on 03.27.18 at 10:21 pm

There is nobody to blame but the banks…that are forced to report increased revenue year over year by their BOD’s. BOD’s that don’t give a f^%$ about any human or living thing on this planet. i.e. members of the top 1%.

Unfortunately, 70% of the population have an IQ that is not capable of understanding the ramifications of owning debt that is impossible to manage. They need solid advice on budgeting and not given unmanageable debt by bankers. Shysters as bad a RE agents.

#110 Lisa on 03.27.18 at 10:21 pm

Hello from Hamilton!

I am so glad I moved back to my hometown from BC. I lived there in the 90s and even then it was insufferable. It’s a sad day when an 18-year-old can’t wait to go back to Hamilton, Ontario. BC suffers from the GTA effect: the whole province is run by one small, densely populated area known as the Lower Mainland. The virtue-signalling, bloated gasbags that populate that area are out of control.
——————————————
Ah, yes. The government taking over the daycare scene. Just before I left the industry for good, we had government advisors come in and rip our daycare apart. No, not for what you think (I took all the duct tape off the kids mouths BEFORE they got there, thankfully). This was because our artwork was on a coloured background and Auntie Kathleen wants it on either a black or white background. That was just the tip of the iceberg, believe me. They want to take all individuality and self-expression out of daycares and make them all the same. How fun! Sounds like Romania in the 80s. And all right before an election!

#111 TEMPLE on 03.27.18 at 10:33 pm

#83 the Jaguar on 03.27.18 at 8:37 pm

Yawn. Mercy. It’s gas bags like this who really illustrate what’s behind the envy, jealousy, and failure to admit that for decades Albertans have been solid contributors to many small BC economies. Many who own property have family history in BC, care about the local environment, contribute to local initiatives, consider themselves western Canadians with shared and beneficial economic interests. Until the moment some arrogant gas bag takes a swing at us. Albertans are not in the habit of turning away from a fight where honour is to be preserved. There are other wines to drink, after all. We don’t need a government order to begin our own boycott.

I love it when Albertans talk tough, like we need the miserable (in every way) contribution of the tar sands to our local economies. If you cared, you would be happy to pay this tax and happy to back away from that nasty sewer pipe.

On the other hand, maybe we do need Alberta! So let me be the first to thank you for contributing to high real estate prices in BC. And for a raging case of Dutch disease. And embarrassing us globally when it comes to climate change. I also really love seeing all those big expensive trucks driving 25kph over the speed limit and listening to your jet skis. Yep, suffering that for a few weeks or maybe a month or two a year sure does make a big contribution to BC. From the heart, thank you.

#oilmoneystrong

#112 LS in Arbutus on 03.27.18 at 10:43 pm

BC government (and federal government) have been asleep at the switch in this run up and/or they have facilitated it.

NDP was voted in because of housing. People are really angry here in BC.

As a gen X’er who has NEVER voted NDP, and thought I never would, I voted NDP. So did most of my friends. Despite having corporate jobs, we held our noses and we voted NDP. Unheard of 5 years ago.

While most of the run up is due to cheap credit (domestic and foreign) there are other issues.

I was so disillusioned with the liberals. No one has data on anything. Can’t have an informed discussion on anything because nothing is tracked. Developers are seemingly allowed to do whatever they want. I think the main thing was the Liberals didn’t even discuss the issues, they pretended they didn’t exist. (Still do.)

Total mess at the casinos (swept under the rug) and start looking at the real estate cases making their way through the courts. Seems like there is no enforcement of anything. Anything goes.

Current laws aren’t being enforced. CRA is nowhere to be seen, unless you missed a T slip or they’re auditing a waitress. People are simply fed up.

This is basically why NDP was voted in, for better or for worse, and it’s because Liberals were, and continue to be, TOTALLY out of touch with how angry the masses are.

Lower mainland is essentially unlivable at current cost to buy/ rent, daycare, food, gas etc. Come try. It’s surprising there’s any young people left. Certainly impossible for a young family not making a minimum $100,000 a year.

Will NDP help, who knows? But people feel it can’t be any worse than it was under the Liberals. Guess we’ll see.

It would be refreshing to see Canadians vote for something, not just against. – Garth

#113 Ian on 03.27.18 at 10:55 pm

As the Ontario Liberals plunge back into single digits popularity, the election promises won’t be limited to a free dinner at The Keg once per month.

As my friend the assistant crown attorney says, why not just offer all Ontarians a free 100k payment? Then the provincial debt can be half a trillion. No worries.

Go Doug and go Blues!!

M48ON – UltraBlues

#114 burnaby guy on 03.27.18 at 10:58 pm

#62 Mark on 03.27.18 at 7:48 pm

Oh here comes that Mark 2013 peak RE guys with his sales mix theory and long post – time for a quick scroll pass.

#115 Protea on 03.27.18 at 10:59 pm

#111 TEMPLE on 03.27.18 at 10:33 pm

Do you really have to insult and be rude to a fellow Canadian? Garth must be wondering why he continues this blog that has been drawn into the gutter with your juvenile comments you should be ashamed of yourself.Please stop posting and stay away from this blog.

#116 Entrepreneur on 03.27.18 at 11:01 pm

The BC Liberals were not approachable and would not listen to us, pretended everything was all okay.

James did say that she was going to adjust, make amends. And Eby is tackling the money laundering and I wonder how he is doing in Ottawa?

The Liberals left a mess.

#117 For those about to flop... on 03.27.18 at 11:01 pm

#106 LS in Arbutus on 03.27.18 at 10:02 pm
FLOP

Check out North Shore Bubble on Twitter. A couple of juicy ones:

5930 Condor Pl
Purchased March 2016 $2,990,000
SOLD Jan 2018 $2,640,000
Assessed $3,178,000
$350,000 LOSS

701 Blueridge Ave
Purchased May 2016 $2,550,000
Listed Jan 2018 $2,678,000
REDUCED March 2018 by $398,000
Now listed at $2,280,000
Assessed $1,875,000
At least $300,000 loss if sold …

Hey LS,yeah not good for them guys.

Got a few in the folder that are looking at similar results.

West Vancouver,Westside and Richmond are putting up some heavy dollar losses ,but percentage wise ,the pain seems spread fairly even at this stage…

M43BC

#118 dosouth on 03.27.18 at 11:03 pm

Horgan changing his mind is, as one would expect, in most areas where the NDP and the Greens have vested political interest. Or where the wrinklies hold behind the scene influence…like Parksville/Nanoose/Parksville.

Supposed public consultation my butt. No real surprise and will just push sales out of places like Nanaimo and others if the tax is a consideration in the purchase. I don’t believe it is for anyone who has enough to buy in those areas as investment or holiday homes. But is was enough to put a scare into the politicians careers…..what new.

#119 jane24 on 03.27.18 at 11:04 pm

We were chatting recently about how advances in computer software and artificial intelligence (AI) would decimate the job market and how would we all pay our bills with no jobs. Surveys have recently been published in Britain claiming that 20% to 40% of existing jobs won’t exist in a decade. We were under the impression l believe that this was a threat to mostly non and semi skilled employment.

WELL I had an AI expert over for supper and the situation is far more advanced that I knew. She pointed out that computers now learn rather than just deliver a set program and they learn exponentially. She is the top AI person for a big British opticians chain. I didn’t even know that most big bushiness now have AI depts. She says that they are close to no longer needing trained staff to test your eyes or supply glasses as computers can do this with 90% accuracy verses professionally qualified humans with 95% accuracy and the company can live with a 10% glasses return rate. Glasses stores of the future will just have a human greeter and computurised kiosks only; so professionals replaced by computers.

AI is close to totally changing Western life as we know it right at a time that Canadian consumer debt is the highest ever. People are committing to monster mortgages totally unaware that their jobs may not exist soon. Plus who is going to pay the income and social insurance taxes to keep our established systems going. Are we going to tax AI? Will machines pay taxes?

THIS is the elephant in the room. THIS is the new Pandora’s Box. How do I advise my grandchildren? How do they future-proof their careers. I even saw a robotic brick layer on TV. Lays bricks at lightning speed and doesn’t need constant cups of tea.

#120 bdwy sktn on 03.27.18 at 11:11 pm

Mark please clean up that spot of vomit you left on the blog floor.

Buy the dip ,again? Violent reversal that was. Of course the sp500 not the sad tsx.

#121 For those about to flop... on 03.27.18 at 11:11 pm

Recent Sale Report/ Realtor Assistance Needed.

This place in Coquitlam sold 24 days ago.

They most likely made out or right ,but it was a bit of a process and they played around with the price a bit.

Have a guy on the blog looking for some price discovery out that way.

Help him out…

M43BC

1315 SOBALL Street, Coquitlam paid 1.33 ass 1.28 asking 1.53

2017-03-01 : $1,458,000
2018-02-08 : $1,538,000
2017-07-14 : $1,428,800
2017-08-02 : $1,588,000

https://www.zolo.ca/coquitlam-real-estate/1315-soball-street

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/RDAwMDBDSDZWQg==

#122 Bytor the Snow Dog on 03.27.18 at 11:14 pm

It would be refreshing to see Canadians vote for something, not just against. – Garth
—————————————————-

Politicians need to give us something to vote “for”, besides mediocrity.

#123 bdwy sktn on 03.27.18 at 11:17 pm

Tesla should continue to incinerate. Buy puts.

#124 For those about to flop... on 03.27.18 at 11:18 pm

Recent Sale Report/ Realtor Assistance Needed

Here is another one that someone could help JettaFlair out with.

This one went 19 days ago and will help fill the information well a little more…

M43BC

1585 Dansey Avenue, Coquitlam paid 1.17 June 2016 ass 1.23

Oct 4:$1,299,800
Mar 2: $1,278,000
Change: – 21800.00 -2%

https://www.zolo.ca/coquitlam-real-estate/1585-dansey-avenue

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAzWEU2UQ==

#125 Oh on 03.27.18 at 11:29 pm

The GTA is not crashing, nor will it. But houses in certain areas are losing a third or more of their value, and prices in general will melt lower over time. – Garth

Markham/Unionville and Richmond Hill are at the top of that list.

#126 MF on 03.27.18 at 11:34 pm

6 Eh on 03.27.18 at 9:19 pm

-No. I’m just telling you something you clearly don’t want to hear.

Some wishful thinking, but most people realize no crash is coming.

If you want to buy gta re, keep waiting then. Maybe by 2055 you will have your price point reached.

MF

#127 NEVER GIVE UP on 03.27.18 at 11:53 pm

#112 LS in Arbutus on 03.27.18 at 10:43 pm
BC government (and federal government) have been asleep at the switch in this run up and/or they have facilitated it.

NDP was voted in because of housing. People are really angry here in BC.

As a gen X’er who has NEVER voted NDP, and thought I never would, I voted NDP. So did most of my friends. Despite having corporate jobs, we held our noses and we voted NDP. Unheard of 5 years ago.
===================================
I couldn’t agree with you more.
Good post!
We differ from our esteemed Blog owner but I believe if something is broken you must try something else. Why would anyone re-elect criminals?

#128 Playing Monoply on 03.28.18 at 12:12 am

I am Sooooo embarrassed to be from BC. I never would have thought that any BC Government would treat
Canadian Citizens from other provinces differently
than BC residents. I am surprised it is even legal.
Just because it is legal does not make it right or moral. All the Albertans I know don’t own property in BC. Many of them frequently holiday or visit BC for numerous reasons.
They tell me they will avoid (like the plague) any visits to BC untl this crap is rectified and until then reschedule their visits and go to Montana, Idaho, Washington, Oregon, California, Utah, Arizona,
Nevada and the rest of Canada. I understand. The BC NDP mentality has such crap for brains. The Pox on them.

#129 Smartalox on 03.28.18 at 12:29 am

Why don’t Canadians vote FOR something instead of always voting against the incumbent?

It would help if opposition parties bothered to cultivate actual opposition to government policy as it is formented, engaging in debate instead of lobbing empty rhetorical petards, in the hope that a soundbite might make it to the evening news, or play to the base on twitter.

Seriously: the people hew and cry about how parties in government ‘dominate’ the discourse (with a one seat lead, and a shaky coalition) because the opposition can’t be bothered to oppose much of anything. Until election time, of course, when the political consultants emerge brimming with Facebook data and a ‘platform’ that does little to describe how the party’s policies will FIX the problems caused by the incumbents, but lots to promise expensive NEW policies of to add to the tax base. They’ll blame the ‘deep state’ or ‘big Government’ for the failure of their policies even while, making their governments even bigger.

But that’s what the political consultants do: they get paid to win elections, not to run governments.

And so, you end up with populist politicians: political rookies, some never having been in parliament, and without a riding to represent – but reliable pitchmen, equipped with familiar names and recognizable brands – even if those brands are somewhat tarnished. Trudeau. Ford. Mulroney. Makes me wonder if Christine Sinclair had run as Christine Flaherty, she might have done better.

At least she could have leveraged her extensive experience as a representative of the people of Ontario, both as a politician and a Civil Servant, to be a credible force in opposition, instead of the sad lot of amateurs we have to choose from, who then embarrass themselves, and by extension, the electorate, soon as they take office.

#130 DON on 03.28.18 at 12:35 am

It would be refreshing to see Canadians vote for something, not just against. – Garth

Okay – independents then.

Public sets agenda (figure it out! get NASA involved)

Independents vote based on constituents consensus (some how – see if the UN can figure it out, without the veto vote)

Constituents can recall MLA/MP if unethical things occur.

We need citizen-political detente. Jail Time!

Who do you trust your country with?

#131 Smoking Man on 03.28.18 at 12:36 am

New phone keyboard. Watch this.

My opinion on the dunamics of Libralism is based on the saturation of the cinematic molecular thorium.

3/4 of my bottle now empty.

#132 VanMan on 03.28.18 at 12:36 am

#39 Bob on 03.27.18 at 7:07 pm
I really think this blog has not fully understood Vancouver. All the evidence I see is of a very strong market with no let up. Detached homes over $3 million might be soft but everything else is selling at an extremely brisk pace. 300 plus families move to Canada every week, A lot of them come with money and want to buy a home. Heroically rates are still low and even with 2 to 3 percentage points added they are never going to be where we saw rates in the eighties and early nineties.

______________________

Agreed. Those of us from Vancouver understand that the market is still on fire for all condo’s & townhomes and habitable residences under $3M.

For anyone that is waiting and wishing for the YVR/Lower Mainland prices to become affordable to anyone with less than 7 zero’s of liquid net worth… dream on. It’s never, ever going to happen. If you can’t afford at this moment, I’m afraid no spec tax, B20, change of Gov’t, rate increase nor anything else is going to change this. You’re about 5+ years too late.

Finally some validation:

“So, no big increase in rental stock. No drop in rents. Certainly no collapse in urban real estate prices”

#133 DON on 03.28.18 at 12:42 am

Enough with the BC/Alberta bashing and back to the main event…the end of recency bias and the start of … (fill in the blank).

Going to be a stormy spring. Downward sentiment. Yikes!

Noticed more listings coming on the market. Signs on every corner again. A few sold signs here and there. Victoria. The silence is deafening no real estate talk at work…zippo.

#134 Bobby on 03.28.18 at 12:46 am

Here in BC many are now starting to realize the NDP couldn’t run a hot dog stand. Mr Horgan is reminding us why the NDP were turfed out 16 years ago and left with only two seats. Of course, Mr Weaver continues to huff and puff and is becoming more irrelevant with each passing change in the speculation tax.
What’s next to give them the monies they need to try and meet their election promises; may I suggest a tax on idiots. With that many who voted for these clowns will finally realize that nothing is free, yes they are the ones paying for it all.
Send help.

#135 waiting on the westcoast on 03.28.18 at 12:52 am

105 Rick on 03.27.18 at 10:00 pm, says ”
http://www.richmond-news.com/real-estate/numbered-companies-lose-10-townhouses-in-richmond-1.23209325?mzpfi=84390
Interesting read of chinese invester buying 10 townhouses using 2 numbered companies. This is just one that made it to the news. How many more out there that didn’t make the news is anyones guess.”

Whether or not he is a foreigner, he invested. Notice the developer, even with the initial deposit money (or option – make sure you read your presale docs), he could not close monies to complete development.

If you are ready to step up and put that money up, maybe we would have another 10 townhouses / rentals available in the market. Extra supply means lower prices and lower terms.

Did anyone here study any economics?

#136 Smoking Man on 03.28.18 at 12:57 am

Canada even worse. Wynne wants access to your kids minds when they are still in diapers.

Ron Paul:

“Don’t Let The State Brainwash Your Children: Homeschool!”
For many decades in America the Constitutional Republic has been engaged in a new type of ‘Civil War’ to decide the future – and that is a ‘Culture War’ – and as the manipulation of young minds continue – Dr. Ron Paul has offered a solution: “Don’t let the state brainwash your children, homeschool them!”

In a recent tweet, Doctor Paul made this clear through his web series and hopes that parents will listen to the dangers being posed to children through the public educational system, via mass indoctrination.

We all hear the horror stories of some of the perverted minds that are now teaching our children, and no parent wishes to subject their child to such abuse.

It’s child abuse, and it’s being perpetuated by the public school system, to create a future for America that no longer has morals or Godly values, and instead, we’re seeing massively programmed children into drone-like social justice warriors to be used as tools by globalists to achieve their endgame.

We’re seeing it every day in America.
…..

We’re seeing it every day in Canada too Dr Paul.

Good news liberals will get destroyed in Ontario in June.

#137 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 03.28.18 at 12:59 am

It would be refreshing to see Canadians vote for something, not just against. – Garth
…………………….

When was the last time that happened ? McKenzie King ?

#138 Jon on 03.28.18 at 1:09 am

I moved into place as renter in 2013 could have bought for 569k in January landlord said selling and offered to me atvassesed 780k . Ps I should have bought on 2013. They dropped another 20k in late February I moved on but lease ends march31. No offers at ask yet and now are replacing all floors and relishing again lower I hand over the keys tomorrow. He told me at list time he’d take 730 but they are waiting. The thing is condos in Vancouver depend so much on age. You can buy a similar u it in OMA for 699 or buy new at Altus for 970k for even less square feet. Condos rose a lot I could have had a OMA for 420 which is 699 after three years. But the disparity between new builds and something 8 years old on a two bedroom is 300k. So u cold buy an OMA which is already granite stainless lol for 700 or new for 970k it just makes me think people are way too much for new. You could totally Pimp Garth that 700k place for 100k make it way nicer than the 970k. Basically Vancouver has gone nuts spending more and more fore new logic defies the pricing over a few blocks. Take it extreme and that two bedroom is 560k for much older you could Donald trump it in gold leaf for price of new. Insanity is all I can at say on what people spend on something a bit newer in condo market

#139 Smoking Man on 03.28.18 at 1:24 am

I don’t know what the hell is going to happen if Trump deports all the illegal Mexicans in California. Talking to lots of business owners here, business booming can’t get anyone to work.

I’ve meet many illegals, wonderful hardworking people. But there are lots of thugs too. Lucky I haven’t met any of those yet.

Guess living in a gated community has its draw backs.

#140 Bob Loblaw on 03.28.18 at 1:26 am

When the price of crude tanked a few years ago, you’d see lots of trucks here in Alberta with a bumper sticker that said “please God, give us another oil boom, we promise not to piss it away this time”

Wonder if we’ll see a similar declaration soon on the back windows of all the Audis and BMWs in BC, only with RE in place of oil

#141 Newcomer on 03.28.18 at 1:33 am

I no longer expect to see fundamentals play a defining role in Canadian house prices. It could happen, of course. Gravity could kick in at any time. But its equally likely that prices will just double again. I wouldn’t be surprised to see one-bedroom condos in Merritt going for a million dollars before Oprah has started her second term. Who would?

But unless we get some Weimar Republic style wage inflation going on, it still seems unwise to be a million dollars in debt for your home. I’m sure a few people here will have noticed that it’s a real drag to save up a million dollars. It takes a long time, and a lot of hard work, and that’s with the power of compound interest working in your favor. Paying off a million dollars by the sweat of your brow, when interest is working the other way, ought to be even harder.

So the bulls may be right, but I’m still not interested.

#142 Randy Randerson on 03.28.18 at 1:45 am

BC NDP, the comedians.

HAHAHAHA

#143 Where's The Money Guido? on 03.28.18 at 3:08 am

Re: #3 Victoria Real Estate Update on 03.27.18 at 6:06 pm
++++++++++++++++++++++++++
That’s usually the norm with boom and busts, but…where are all those gang-bangers going to launder their money if not in RE.
If I remember correctly and I can’t find the info on it, the 2012 gov’t’s numbers from just marijuana in BC is $4 billion/year, from one gang. How many properties are they buying?
That’s 4000-1 million dollar homes. Just from pot and one gang. From the amount of killings going on in the Vancouver area, there’s lots of players looking for a good laundry.
That money has to go somewhere and it’s obvious it’s going into RE of all kinds.

#144 Howard on 03.28.18 at 5:19 am

#49 Who Cares About BC on 03.27.18 at 7:20 pm

Everyone is headed East out of BC with a one way ticket from what I am hearing.

Look at those South Okanagan numbers. Worse than Vancouver if you factor in supporting economy.

Only people moving in are rich boomers.

Anyone care to guess who picks up the slack after this demographic disappears in those areas after 15-20 years?

——————————————-

I have absolutely no issue with BC turning into a giant foreign holiday resort as long as the foreign land owners (who will eventually have the majority of BC’s private land) are taxed to the hilt. Perhaps that cash can fund a middle class tax cut to Canadian citizens.

#145 NoName on 03.28.18 at 5:53 am

Interesting read

Warehouses Are Now Worth More Than Offices, Thanks to Amazon https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-28/warehouses-are-now-worth-more-than-offices-thanks-to-amazon-com

#146 Howard on 03.28.18 at 6:07 am

I recall some people here complaining that Harper’s increase in the TFSA limit (reversed by Airhead) was just a vote-buying stunt. True enough.

But now, Premier Orville Redenbacher is proposing free childcare for the 4-year period between the end of mat leave until the start of JK. Social engineering, more helicopter money at freeloaders.

Which version of vote-buying do you prefer? At least Harper’s was egalitarian and oriented towards responsible saving. Every citizen could have taken advantage of the higher TFSA limit.

#147 Howard on 03.28.18 at 6:20 am

#111 TEMPLE on 03.27.18 at 10:33 pm

You don’t strike me as the kind of person who can afford a car, but I bet you know many who can. And they won’t relish the 100%+ increase in gas prices that will come if Alberta turns off the tap. Do your lot REALLY want to go up against Jason Kenney in this kind of fight?

Are you proud, as a BCer, that Victoria discharges raw sewage right into the ocean? At least Alberta’s economy is based on smarts (yes, it takes world class engineering talent to turn low-quality sludge into a profitable commodity). What is the basis of BC’s economy?

#148 dharma bum on 03.28.18 at 6:38 am

Think the NDP is harmless?
Here’s another guy who claims that he wasn’t a commie:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hiSfK5QrlMo

Perfect for BC!

#149 Gravy Train on 03.28.18 at 6:48 am

#139 Smoking Man on 03.28.18 at 1:24 am
“I don’t know what … is going to happen if Trump deports all the illegal Mexicans in California. Talking to lots of business owners here, business booming can’t get anyone to work…. I’ve met many illegals, wonderful hardworking people.”

Gosh, Smokey, there may be hope for you yet! I never thought I would ever say this, but you just may be capable of learning! Will wonders never cease?! There may come a day when you start reading books! Well, that may be too much to hope for! Ha!

This is the first post I’ve read in which you’re not worshiping at the altar of Trump. Protea and Big Kahuna will now say you’ve betrayed your race! :)

#150 dharma bum on 03.28.18 at 6:53 am

#131 Smoking Man

“My opinion on the dunamics of Libralism is based on the saturation of the cinematic molecular thorium.”
——————————————————————–

Exacatacaly.

God what a husband I’d make! Yes, I should get married!
So much to do! like sneaking into Mr Jones’ house late at night
and cover his golf clubs with 1920 Norwegian books . . .
And when the milkman comes leave him a note in the bottle
Penguin dust, bring me penguin dust, I want penguin dust.

And other such gibberish.

#151 Howard on 03.28.18 at 7:04 am

To think new taxes will make a market correct is flawed logic. Wait and see. – Garth

——————————

I’m going to have to start copying to a Word file excerpts from your blogs since I’m fairly certain you’ve stated multiple times that the NDP taxes would accelerate the decline in BC RE (and somehow, that this is a bad thing).

So now they won’t do a thing? So what’s the problem then? Government gets more revenues and RE stays lofty. Win-win for the foreign resort community known as BC.

The NDP will kill the market activity, reduce sales and drive buyers away. It will not make real estate more affordable. – Garth

#152 Be Realistic on 03.28.18 at 7:18 am

Trump is Targeting Amazon

From CNBC: President Donald Trump is not a fan of Amazon.

Axios is reporting Trump wants to “go after” the e-commerce giant, according to five sources who’ve talked about Amazon with him.

“He’s obsessed with Amazon,” a source told the media outlet. “Obsessed.”

Trump has discussed altering the company’s tax treatment because several of his friends told him Amazon is hurting their businesses and “killing shopping malls and brick-and-mortar retailers.”

What do you think Amazon in GTA does for home prices if anything? Could be a big boon.

#153 Howard on 03.28.18 at 7:24 am

#22 BlogDog123 on 03.27.18 at 6:42 pm

4) Free nose jobs, boob jobs, whatever it takes, June 7th is coming and the libs need your vote.

——————————–

Why not? The Liberals already made sex-change operations “free”.

#154 NotLegalAdvice on 03.28.18 at 7:46 am

Looks like I’ll be renting! 2500 in Brampton can get you a whole house!

Also, the same house I’ll be renting for 2500 was bought at over a million bux!

“You’ll be paying someone else’s mortgage” they say. I say they were the greater fool and now I’ll benefit.

Thanks Garth

#155 Kaganovich on 03.28.18 at 8:00 am

The taxes that the BC NDP will do what they are intended to do, compress wealth inequality, levelling a growing chasm between those few haves and the many have nots. That is, if Horgan doesn’t totally cave. Walter Scheidel gives a great analysis of what wealth tax can do in stabilizing a volatile situation in his discussion of the USA’s post WW2 policies in Japan. By today’s common criterion, MacArthur would be accused of being an unabashed socialist lol.

The taxes will do nothing about ‘wealth inequality.’ How naive can you be? – Garth

#156 The 905 Is On Fire! on 03.28.18 at 8:11 am

(
(Nope, this is not another Al Sinclair headline.)

https://globalnews.ca/news/4107584/pickering-fire-no-injuries/

And yet again today:

http://www.680news.com/2018/03/28/fire-pickering-home/

Expect many more mysterious fires in the 905 and cottage country in the months ahead.

A destructively creative way out of a falling market…..

Good time to start liquidating shares in insurance companies, too.

#157 Steven Rowlandson on 03.28.18 at 8:29 am

Everyone who hopes to buy low and sell high is a speculator regardless of what the investment is.
In the case of residential real estate we are dealing with a necessity of life and that makes all the difference.
Deliberately raising the price higher than what the 3 years pay rule allows at minimum wage is not fair game. It is a crime against humanity, genocide under article 2 section c and d of the genocide convention and bad economics. In this situation the maximum price must be limited by the minimum wage.

#158 LivinLarge on 03.28.18 at 8:41 am

“At least Harper’s was egalitarian and oriented towards responsible saving. Every citizen could have taken advantage of the higher TFSA limit.”…well, no, not really. There is a very large cohort of Canadians who simply live day to day so TFSA headroom means nothing.

This is still an elitist attitude. Sort of our CDN version of “have they no brioche?”.

Helmet head had the same stats as we had at the time, that only about 4% of CDN tax payers had already maxed their TFSAs and that 4% was almost entirely high net worth folks, far more likely to vote PC so from a tactical outlook is was an excellent one that would almost certainly target and retain a proportion of the PC loyal base.

So, while TFSA contribution limits are not income tested, they still were, far more the domain of the upper income strata than of the lower and middle income stratas.

Thanks to Fearless Leader and the advisory industry as a whole, the TFSA is becoming more popular every day….yayyyyyy.

#159 IHCTD9 on 03.28.18 at 8:47 am

#158 Steven Rowlandson on 03.28.18 at 8:29 am
Everyone who hopes to buy low and sell high is a speculator regardless of what the investment is.
In the case of residential real estate we are dealing with a necessity of life and that makes all the difference.
Deliberately raising the price higher than what the 3 years pay rule allows at minimum wage is not fair game. It is a crime against humanity, genocide under article 2 section c and d of the genocide convention and bad economics. In this situation the maximum price must be limited by the minimum wage.
__________________

Sticking a high price on a house is genocide these days? lol

#160 maxx on 03.28.18 at 8:49 am

#29 acdel on 03.27.18 at 6:51 pm

“I hate the fact that so many Canadian’s are turning on each other, are we a country or not??

The West Coast dippers “REALLY” do not understand on how much money pours into B.C., especially the interior the ALTA, B.C. border, never mind the rest of Canadians that have purchased or take their vacations in that province. Canadian’s spend billions in that Province and yet the Foreign Greenie hypocrites financed by out of country special interest (so called green groups) dictate what should be done to the rest of this country.

You hypocrites are in for a rude awakening! I am looking forward to it!”

Cry us a river….how about the big push in Ontariowe to eject out of province patients. I know people in their mid 80’s who lost their GP after 40 years. Hippocrates would roll in his grave at this disgusting move, not to mention the fury of Ontariowe docs who keep seeing their salaries drop year over year.

Yeah, we’re a country all right. Ontario is in debt quicksand and bitches incessantly about unequal transfer payments whilst dangling unsustainable levels of social benefits. Free day care, free meds……wouldn’t know what to do with a transfer payment if it smacked it across the face.

Debt does break apart families and most definitely reverberates the same way across a country.

#161 TurnerNation on 03.28.18 at 8:50 am

What I was saying. Success in Kanada is to be torn down.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/sunshine-list-so-white-ontario-public-sector-executives-1.4593238

What if…minorities and immigrants are in fact too hardworking and full of pride, to take a useless government paperpushing job overcharging fellow Kanadians?

Like working for Hydro One electricity rip off, or the CRTC (psst we have Netflix now) or Language or Gender Police., or the Carbon taxers. Or in bloated Admin sucking money from medical patients and school/Uni students.
Or managing our overpriced airports (highest landing fees in the world at Pearon). World class yo.
Kanada’s existence is for funding public unions and paperpushers and overcharging us via oligopolies and monopolies. Full stop.

We’ve not advanced in decades. Not medically, scientifically or culturally, or via technology. And we will not do so. 2nd World.

#162 LivinLarge on 03.28.18 at 8:53 am

“It would be refreshing to see Canadians vote for something, not just against. – Garth”…well, ya. It would help if we had some “THING” to vote for for a change.

Like him or loathe him PET stood for some “THING” and that “thing” created a cult of personality. T2 isn’t the character his father was so that’s pretty much a washout.

#163 neo on 03.28.18 at 9:07 am

Garth,

The Fed has raised interest rates like 5 times and the 10 year is still at 2.77%. Shouldn’t it be well above 3.00% at this point once you factor in another 3 hikes this year? These Fed rate hikes just looks like theatre to me. 3.00% is the mendoza line for interest rate derivative books on some huge banks. The rate seems to be artificially kept below three with whatever negative headline is necessary. Deutsche Bank is the canary in the coal mine. That bank has the biggest derivatives book on the planet and they keep hitting 52 lows every week. Their book is larger than the entire Germany economy.

#164 going after the cause not the symptom on 03.28.18 at 9:13 am

I agree that taxes are not a good answer. So with a supply/demand issue, it should be a simple solution – create more supply. This takes care of inflated prices, creates housing to meet demand and all is well (and no it will still not be affordable to live in the downtown of YVR or YYT, but you should be able to live within a decent commute affordably). So with this is mind, maybe a lobbying effort is needed by the citizens to get major amounts of land open (its not like we don’t have any in this country. LOL) for development. There will be push back by groups that gain off of a restricted supple and higher prices, but they should be small in numbers compared to the amount of people wanting affordable homes. This would give people something to vote and lobby for, rather than voting against what they can no longer tolerate.

#165 ArcticOutback on 03.28.18 at 9:23 am

RE: #53 Nonplused on 03.27.18 at 7:28 pm

– After shelling out over 100k for both of our kids to have daycare so we had the privilege of paying high taxes to keep both of our career tracks on the rails, then having the Child benefit (household income too high) and fitness credit removed (Lib chop) this kind of vote pandering peeves me off.

It is very poorly thought out it will be a nightmare to deliver/administer and will be ripe for abuse. The whole program is simply not fair to other working families with children on either side of the slim 2.5 year to 4 year old window.

The majority of employers only cover 3-6 months mat leave and the early years of childcare are the most expensive. So what is someone to do from 6 months to 2.5 years? I like the Quebec system of having a subsidized fee based on income from extremely low basic fees of $7.55 per day to $20.70 per day at the high end.

I agree that in addition the Government should do something to provide a greater tax credit for after-school care/camps for children to age 12. With 3 months of school off yearly to cover (2 months summer/2 weeks Christmas/ 1 week March break plus >10 PA days).

Perhaps with all of that time off teachers can split coverage for Government run summer/winter camps? It would still give them 6 weeks off yearly to recoup which is more than the 3 weeks I have now (after 5 years of being on the job).

#166 IHCTD9 on 03.28.18 at 9:29 am

#209 Ace Goodheart on 03.27.18 at 8:00 pm

Toronto utilities and property taxes are cheap. I have a three unit rental building that I pay $900.00 per year for water, sewage and garbage pick up. Property tax? $1900.00 per year.

Small town property tax and utilities are nutso. The idea is the big cities pool the resources and everything is cheaper in quantity. Just look at how much people in Muskoka are paying for electricity compared to people in Toronto.
______

Yep, density has some benefits. Makes perfect sense.

Small town home owners really do get hosed, taxes keep going up at Province leading percentages as the old world economic base dries up, but council keeps voting yes to a new City Hall, fire dept., police station, and pay raises across the board. Meanwhile cuts are made as a reward for our tax increase.

I am always watching. At some point, the economic value of the area drops below the asking price for taxes. Big paying jobs outside of the public sector are few and far between. There are only so many rich retirees you can expect to move in every year. At some point, tax rates will butt directly against those regular folks actually trying to make a living in the town.

The trick is to have your place sold before the tax rates deter the majority of would be buyers. Already a decent place runs 6-7K per year, my taxes have near tripled in 16 years and the only non user-fee’d services I get are Police and snowplowing. We have no street lights, no sidewalk, no sewer, no water, pretty much no value at all for my tax dollar.

Don’t need to be a genius to understand that it ain’t the 30 year old pavement in front of my house driving up the costs at City Hall…

#167 IHCTD9 on 03.28.18 at 9:38 am

#210 Be Realistic on 03.28.18 at 7:16 am
#206 – IHCTD9

$630K in 2015
___________________

What’s that house you’re living in worth today?

#168 Frank Blood on 03.28.18 at 9:38 am

Re: #128 Playing Monopoly. My annual sports car road trip this year is to Washington and Idaho, avoiding BC as much as possible. Spring trip to Victoria in April for some sightseeing and scuba… nope, Puget sound area in Washington now. Next year skiing will be Montana instead of Kimberly or Big White.

#169 Ezzy on 03.28.18 at 9:49 am

#10 Millennial Realist

God I am so happy you’re not a reflection of the majority of people in our generation.

Secondly, the Liberals care about recently immigrated young couples and families, much more than they do millennials. In doing so they are securing future votes. And that’s as it should be because we all know millennials are having fewer and fewer children anyway. Notwithstanding the shouty, what-about-me characteristics that seem to define our generation, I suspect our cohort won’t matter much in a decade or so anyway. Aside the enormous amount of debt we’ve incurred, as a collective.

#170 TEMPLE on 03.28.18 at 9:52 am

#147 Howard on 03.28.18 at 6:20 am

Come on, Howard, you are smarter than that:

http://nationalpost.com/news/canada/could-alberta-bring-b-c-to-its-knees-by-shutting-off-the-oil

I’m not even going to bother about sewage from Victoria, but you are mostly wrong about that, too.

#171 maxx on 03.28.18 at 9:54 am

#33 Andrew Woburn on 03.27.18 at 6:56 pm

“#4 scooby doo on 03.27.18 at 6:08 pm
Wynne now offering free child care for pre-schoolers. It has to end.
==================
Clearly this is pre-election BS.

But, it this country wants both educated women in the workforce and sustainable growth in population base, we need to stop treating child care as solely a private burden for women. We need to realize we all have a stake in it and that social investment is required and appropriate.”

Yes. Priced a helluva lot lower, but according to families’ ability to pay. Quebec has it right.

#172 Elektrobahn on 03.28.18 at 9:56 am

‘The Dippers blew this in every possible way. Big surprise’

They are doing the same thing in Alberta and Ontario is still recovering from Boob Rae. The question is why Canadians keep voting for the socialists. I believe it’s due to stupidity, and that’s why T2 will win in a landslide next year.

#173 maxx on 03.28.18 at 9:59 am

#48 Common sense on 03.27.18 at 7:17 pm

“Wealth tax upcoming in how many years in a province or country near to you?”

That would be silly, however a luxury tax would be an excellent idea.

#174 MommaBear on 03.28.18 at 10:01 am

@#33

Ms Wynne s absolutely off her gourd and so is anyone else who thinks that “Daycare” is a ‘good place’ to leave children all day. You may think your child is cute, special, smart and wonderful but strangers couldn’t care less.

Even so-called ‘quality’ daycares with their 1:4 caregiver:child ratios.

Tell me this: if a woman had quadruplets most people would assume she would need ALOT of help during the day. Friends and family would gather round to assist with the diapering, feeding, laundry, cleaning, cooking eyc….but then think a 20-something child-care worker straight out of Uni will have NO PROBLEMS looking after strange kids 8-12 hr/day 5-6 days per week. Ridiculous!

Please name ONE institution run by government that is cost-effective, & offers quality efficient service? Hmmmm? They cant even run the DMV properly but mothers are supposed to entrust the health & well-being of their vulnerable children to them all day, every day.

If the Liberals really cared about the children, they would adjust their policies so a parent could stay home with their child (lower taxation perhaps?). Instead they have it ass-backwards and want to increase taxation to force even more people to work and leave children at these “day-farms”.

Government can legislate child ratios, daycare fees, training, curriculum, cleanliness and hours of operation but they will never be able to legislate what a child needs most: love and attention.

#175 IHCTD9 on 03.28.18 at 10:05 am

#136 Smoking Man on 03.28.18 at 12:57 am
Canada even worse. Wynne wants access to your kids minds when they are still in diapers.

Ron Paul:

“Don’t Let The State Brainwash Your Children: Homeschool!”
___________________________

Seriously, it’s not a bad idea.

My kids do well in school and when younger – did many math, spelling, posters, chess, competitions – you name it.

Consequently, I was in attendance at many of these events. I now currently understand that saying the homeschooled kids will do excellent is as predictable as saying the Asians will.

#176 Tony on 03.28.18 at 10:11 am

At least the Albertans can sell a property in British Columbia. A little in Alberta where listings can sit on mls for several years or longer.

#177 Blacksheep on 03.28.18 at 10:20 am

Steve # 158,

“Everyone who hopes to buy low and sell high is a speculator regardless of what the investment is.
In the case of residential real estate we are dealing with a necessity of life and that makes all the difference.”

“Deliberately raising the price higher than what the 3 years pay rule allows at minimum wage is not fair game. It is a crime against humanity, genocide under article 2 section c and d of the genocide convention and bad economics. In this situation the maximum price must be limited by the minimum wage.”
——————————
Ahh…you had me there for a minute, thinking you were actually, serious.

See guys this, is the type of sharp wit that keeps me comming back to G.F. : )

#178 Smoking Man on 03.28.18 at 10:25 am

I wish they would stop talking about this.

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=357932924690916&id=345572965926912

#179 Ponnaps on 03.28.18 at 10:32 am

I just don’t get how we’ve accepted giving up 5.65% of the selling price as commissions to brokers who basically add little value.

In an advanced country like ours with robust systems and record keeping do we really need brokers.. Sellers anyway pay for RE lawyers to look into legalities…

Basically taking a huge 5.65% loss in your property value for no commensurate benefit…

#180 PastThePeak on 03.28.18 at 10:40 am

#111 TEMPLE on 03.27.18 at 10:33 pm

Do you really have to insult and be rude to a fellow Canadian? Garth must be wondering why he continues this blog that has been drawn into the gutter with your juvenile comments you should be ashamed of yourself.Please stop posting and stay away from this blog.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Well said. This TEMPLE person seems to be a very jealous, mean-spirited, contemptible human being.

#181 Alex N calgary on 03.28.18 at 10:42 am

Nanaimo has gone nutso, the houses have skyrocketed as people look for investment properties outside Van. My sister sold their house in like a day to speccers, there are no jobs there, but the houses cost a fortune and rents are obscene, someone had to do something. You’ve been advocating they do something for years, but now its a tax on the rich? what would be your ideal plan to control the speculative investment? A natural market correction we’d hoped for years ago never happened, higher and higher, propose a fix that doesn’t tax the “rich” I’d be curious to see what you’d do that isn’t comrade-party-leader in your mind.

Keep up the good work.

#182 PastThePeak on 03.28.18 at 10:43 am

Universal health care, partial pharmacare, dental care, and now daycare. What will come next?

Since my largest expense is taxes, any chance on some taxacare where gov’t miraculously pays for this…

#183 dosouth on 03.28.18 at 10:45 am

“The NDP will kill the market activity, reduce sales and drive buyers away. It will not make real estate more affordable. – Garth…”

Buying or selling this is not a bad thing.

It’s the worst possible thing for sellers. And human nature being what it is, buyers almost always want to purchase in rising markets, not falling ones. – Garth

#184 Karma on 03.28.18 at 11:20 am

Garth, you will like this!

https://vimeo.com/41152287

#185 Damifino on 03.28.18 at 11:27 am

#112 LS in Arbutus

As a gen X’er who has NEVER voted NDP, and thought I never would, I voted NDP. So did most of my friends.
———————————-

Then you made a mistake. That’s OK. At least it was an honest mistake. Who knew the dippers could fumble the ball worse that the Liberals?

Hillary looks good in hindsight. Hell, even Harper does. But Christy Clark? Even I have to think about that for a while.

#186 Gravy Train on 03.28.18 at 11:37 am

… And human nature being what it is, buyers almost always want to purchase in rising markets, not falling ones. – Garth

Baffling, isn’t it? I suppose it’s the same with stocks.

#187 MF on 03.28.18 at 11:39 am

#162 TurnerNation on 03.28

Umm that’s the Ontario provincial government.

Not the “Kanadian” one.

MF

#188 Ogopogo on 03.28.18 at 11:45 am

Garth wrote:

“Areas like Kelowna will be injured disproportionately.”

That’s precisely what I’m counting on. Almost giddy over here with excitement. As soon as the beast begins to tumble, I’ll be there with ridiculously low-ball offers to kneecap desperate sellers. Still expect it to be a while, (perhaps even a couple of years) until the delusional herd begins to truly stampede, but with any luck I’ll catch one of the premature lemmings.

It’s sad that it has come to this dog-eat-dog world out here in BC, but the BC Liberals bear massive responsibility for letting the bubble grow this toxic. I’ve spent the last 7 years quietly building my portfolio and outpacing housing gains only to have to suffer through friends bragging about how much their house has gained in value. Little do they know how farther ahead I am than they are, not to mention all the headaches I and my wife have avoided by renting.

C’est la via. The vultch is on.

It was central bank monetary policy and unbridled house horniness that inflated the bubble. Blaming the Libs for it is nothing more than false justification for having elected socialists & lettuce-heads. – Garth

#189 Ronaldo on 03.28.18 at 11:49 am

#182 Alex N calgary on 03.28.18 at 10:42 am

Nanaimo has gone nutso, the houses have skyrocketed as people look for investment properties outside Van. My sister sold their house in like a day to speccers, there are no jobs there, but the houses cost a fortune and rents are obscene, someone had to do something. You’ve been advocating they do something for years, but now its a tax on the rich? what would be your ideal plan to control the speculative investment? A natural market correction we’d hoped for years ago never happened, higher and higher, propose a fix that doesn’t tax the “rich” I’d be curious to see what you’d do that isn’t comrade-party-leader in your mind.

Keep up the good work.
————————————————————
Nutso is a good word for it Alex, especially in the past couple months. 2 months ago a house on our street sold for 20 thousand over assessment. In the last couple weeks a house a few lots over sold for $128,000 over assessment. Two years ago the house next to ours sold for $20,000 under assessment. 1 year ago a house a few doors down from ours sold for $4000 under assessment. Friends recently sold their house in another part of town near the hospital for $155,000 over assessment. These are houses that were in the asking price range of $585,000 to $797,000. And things don’t appear to be slowing down. We caught the virus.

#190 For those about to flop... on 03.28.18 at 12:02 pm

My version of a Trade War is Carpenters versus Electricians.

You never know what’s gonna happen.

That’s why I dress up like Mel Gibson in Braveheart before I go to work each day…

M43BC

Visualizing How Vulnerable is Each State to a Trade War
Is the U.S. about to engage in a trade war? Markets are down as political rhetoric continues to escalate around everything from tariffs to trade deficits. With so much attention being paid to international trade, we thought now would be a great time to figure out which states’ economies depend the most on imports and exports. We crunched the numbers and created a new graph.

We gathered our data from a few different places. The Bureau of Economic Analysis keeps track of GDP figures at the state level, the US Census Bureau tabulates trade figures for each state, and the American Enterprise Institute neatly synthesized the information. Last year we graphed data in an intuitive map of the U.S., but we decided to change things up this time around with a circular bar chart. Each blue bar represents the total GDP ($B) for each state. Because states vary significantly in size, we added a color-coded red bar to represent the percentage of the state’s economy dependent on trade. In other words, this metric tells you how important trade is to the overall economy of both large and small states.
Here are the top five states where international trade makes up the greatest percentage of the local economy (we included the GDP ($B) of each state for reference):

1. Michigan: $200B – 38.9%

2. Louisiana: $94B – 38.7%

3. Kentucky: $78B – 38.1%

4. Tennessee: $112B – 32.6%

5. South Carolina: $70B – 31.9%

And here are the five states (including Washington, DC) where international trade makes up the smallest percentage of GDP:

1. Washington, DC: $2B – 1.5%

2. Wyoming: $2B – 5%

3. South Dakota: $3B – 5.1%

4. Hawaii: $5B – 5.4%

5. New Mexico: $6B – 6%

We can quickly learn a lot about the American economy by looking at this kind of data. The average state generates about 20% of its economic activity through international trade of one kind or another. Six states get more than 30% of their GDP this way. Three states with huge economies are extremely reliant on trade: California ($2,734B total GDP with 22.4% from trade), Texas ($1,692B total with 31.2% from trade), and New York ($1,550B total with 13% from trade). Pause for a moment and think about that. California alone depends on trade for more than $600B of their GDP every year. That’s bigger than the entire GDP of the 11 smallest states in the Union!

Given President Trump’s rhetoric around trade deficits and tariffs, we might expect him to perform better in states with a low dependence on foreign trade. Surprisingly, however, the exact opposite is true. He won seven of the top ten states most reliant on foreign trade, including each of the top five, and lost six of the ten states least dependent on foreign trade (including Washington, DC). Elections clearly aren’t won or lost based on economic interests alone.

We know several states that voted for President Trump directly benefit from high levels of international trade and pundits are learning to pay more attention to Trump’s actions as President than simply basing their analyses on what he says, on Twitter or otherwise. The recent carve-outs for American allies on his steel tariffs are only the latest case in point. We will have to wait and see if his recent trade war rhetoric follows a pattern.”

https://howmuch.net/articles/international-trade-as-a-share-of-state-GDP

#191 Stan Brooks on 03.28.18 at 12:03 pm

#3 Victoria Real Estate Update on 03.27.18 at 6:06 pm
SMUGNESS

* Cities with the highest levels of speculation (think Victoria, Vancouver and Toronto) always end up experiencing the most brutal price busts. (In the US correction, house prices in west coast, warm weather, tech-central Francisco fell 45% in 3 years, while prices in Dallas and Denver fell only 11% and 12%, respectively (Case Shiller index)).

=====================

Of course.

The very thought that sh..ty Toronto, crappy GTA suburbs will only decline modestly is laughable.

Somebody was quoting Danforth and Coxwell at 1.2 millions. Have you ever been to this place?

What a crappy subway station. What crappy old houses that did not sell even for 300 k in 2005-2006, now they are suddenly 1.2 mil in a place with absolutely no economy?

To reiterate: we have 2 options:
1. destruction of the loonie
2. crash of the housing market in GTA with 70-80 % on average from the top, maybe 40-50 for desired Toronto locations.

Any calls for soft landing and modest decline in Toronto/GTA are just wishful thinking and attempt to manage the unmanageable.

The banks will get their money back one way or another. But the populace will be crashed.
The clueless liberals are looking to increase taxes in such environment! What king of fool would it take to unwind the biggest credit bubble by not doing QE but instead increasing taxes in attempt to manage inflation?

Inflationary depression is a given.
Move out/step aside and save whatever you can, while you can.

It will be messy and smelly once it hits the fan.

#192 Howard on 03.28.18 at 12:10 pm

#171 TEMPLE on 03.28.18 at 9:52 am

Your National Post link presents a fairly benign view of the impact to BC of oil disruption.

The National Post link below paints a rather more dire picture.

Where’s the truth? Likely somewhere in the middle.

http://nationalpost.com/news/canada/how-alberta-could-sow-gas-price-armageddon-in-vancouver

Besides which, it is unconstitutional for a province to block a project under federal responsibility, particularly when the opposition to the project is based on pseudo-science, petty aims to destroy a fellow province’s biggest industry, and is riven with hypocrisy.

You think that horrible Site-C dam is environmentally friendly?

But sure, go up against Jason Kenney. He will have Premier Doug Ford in his corner, not to mention that the pro-development CAQ party is likely to win Quebec’s election this fall. AND if you haven’t noticed, PM Airhead’s numbers are plummeting, and the unambiguously pro-pipeline Conservatives are rising.

#193 Good job Canada! on 03.28.18 at 12:14 pm

Post #112 LS in Arbutus

My wife and I felt the same way. Have never voted NDP at the provincial level or Liberal at the federal level. However, what has happened in Vancouver beggars belief. We both have designations, bring in close to $300k and are about to break $1 million in financial assets. To buy something, even a relatively modest townhouse in a traditional blue collar area, which now go for approx. $1.3-$1.5, we would have to liquidate a significant chunk of our assets and take on big debt. Doesn’t sound smart.

Things have gotten so bad here that it’s no surprise that the NDP swayed voters like myself and LS in Arbutus or that Horgan is the most popular Premier in the country.

For those of you that might counter by saying “move”. I’m almost in agreement. We have considered it but everything in Canada is too expensive for what you are getting — why is the average SFH in Canada twice the price of a US SFH? Get rid of CMHC I say. Also addresses the argument that the govt. shouldn’t interfere in the market. It already does.

For those of you that might counter by saying that “the NDP will crash the economy” or “what about the children?”. Most certainly a risk as this province let itself become entirely dependent on real estate. However, our work is totally unrelated to the fortunes of this province, so not a concern. That being said, the NDP really needs to come up a plan for a post-real-estate economy.

#194 Fake News Again on 03.28.18 at 12:14 pm

FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 03.28.18 at 12:59 am
It would be refreshing to see Canadians vote for something, not just against. – Garth
…………………….

When was the last time that happened ? McKenzie King ?

______

Agreed. There has been no one to vote for or any kind of democracy in Canada for many generations. If you think that “electing an Autocratic Dictator” is democracy I have an acre of tundra to sell you……

#195 Mattl on 03.28.18 at 12:14 pm

It would be refreshing to see Canadians vote for something, not just against. – Garth

In this case the pinheads that voted NDP are getting what they voted for, class warfare and housing policies intented to crash the market. Unfortunately for them, like the NDP, they have no understanding on how markets work and are going to be stunned when that crash costs them their job and their landlord swoops in and buys ten more homes. As if middle class bc families are going to be able to afford sfh in Van with no other side affects.

#196 Fake News Again on 03.28.18 at 12:17 pm

Ogopogo on 03.28.18 at 11:45 am
Garth wrote:

“Areas like Kelowna will be injured disproportionately.”

That’s precisely what I’m counting on. Almost giddy over here with excitement. As soon as the beast begins to tumble, I’ll be there with ridiculously low-ball offers to kneecap desperate sellers. Still expect it to be a while, (perhaps even a couple of years) until the delusional herd begins to truly stampede, but with any luck I’ll catch one of the premature lemmings.

It’s sad that it has come to this dog-eat-dog world out here in BC, but the BC Liberals bear massive responsibility for letting the bubble grow this toxic. I’ve spent the last 7 years quietly building my portfolio and outpacing housing gains only to have to suffer through friends bragging about how much their house has gained in value. Little do they know how farther ahead I am than they are, not to mention all the headaches I and my wife have avoided by renting.

C’est la via. The vultch is on.

It was central bank monetary policy and unbridled house horniness that inflated the bubble. Blaming the Libs for it is nothing more than false justification for having elected socialists & lettuce-heads. – Garth
______

Yeah Garth…it has absolutely NOTHING to do with tens of billions of dollars being laundered here with RE coming from overseas………

Lordy lordy……the denial on this blog about BC is just mind boggling.

Foreign investment is a factor in every major Canadian market, but not the determining one in any. There is no evidence to support that view. – Garth

#197 James on 03.28.18 at 12:36 pm

#131 Smoking Man on 03.28.18 at 12:36 am

New phone keyboard. Watch this.

My opinion on the dunamics of Libralism is based on the saturation of the cinematic molecular thorium.

3/4 of my bottle now empty.
__________________________________________
Yes your absolutely correct.
nIm wIb ngogh ‘ej HIq chenmoH penguin poop chenmoH garden HIq vISop vIparHa’. vaj nuq bIQopchugh SoH?

#198 Mattl on 03.28.18 at 12:36 pm

Ogopogo – stop embarrassing yourself. You’ve been waiting 7 years in Kelowna? This market, save the last 18 months has been mostly flat, single digit yoy. You could have bought SFH for under 300 in 2011, for free money lol. Or acreage lakeview under 600. Even now homes stay up for 70 plus days.

You vulchers kill me. You missed the previous buying opp and expect us to believe you are going to find the next one. By the time you buy in you would be halfway to paying off the 2011 house , payments less then todays sfh rental cost.

Not suggesting now is a good time to buy but 2011-2016 were great times to get in and if you didn’t like those prices expect to be waiting forever.

#199 Mike in Toronto on 03.28.18 at 12:46 pm

#175 MommaBear

It’s like Wynne is trying to lose. People who are expecting don’t anticipate the brutal insanity of childcare costs, people who are paying for it now won’t need it by mid-late 2020, and people who paid it cerainly don’t want to pay for everyone else’s for the rest of their lives.

So disappointing. Ontario has no provincial leaders. I’ll be voting for my local representative. Probably not PC because Ford will ignore them and will be too busy cancelling Toronto transit plans and fighting his war on bicycles.

#200 Newcomer on 03.28.18 at 12:55 pm

The NDP will kill the market activity, reduce sales and drive buyers away. It will not make real estate more affordable. – Garth
—–

In today’s blog post, you said, regarding GTA, “First sales tumble then, if conditions persist, sellers capitulate and the ask drops. ”

Is there another mechanism in place in BC whereby sales will tumble but the ask will not drop, or are you arguing that lowering asking prices will not make real estate more affordable?

Prices fall from the top, not the bottom or middle. If you want a $5 million home for $3.8, then Horgan is your guy! – Garth

#201 IHCTD9 on 03.28.18 at 1:06 pm

#194 Good job Canada! on 03.28.18 at 12:14 pm
_____________________

Good comments.

Here is what Canada needs: A good solid SHTF reset. That’s what it takes pretty much anywhere in the world before voters see the light. Jobs need to be lost, houses foreclosed, savings pounded, economies beat down.

Folks don’t look too far outside their own 4 walls, therefore the pain needs to kick down the front door and barge into the living room before anyone feels the need to look outside and down the road a ways.

The airhead politicians we have up for grabs in this country is a good indication of what Canadian voters actually want. Yes, that’s hard to believe – we’d all much rather blame the politicians themselves – but the blame rests on the shoulders of Canadian voters at the end of the day. These types will eventually bring about the SHTF I mentioned earlier.

You’re making 300K and griping about how expensive houses are. Most folks around the globe would have you committed upon hearing it. This is all the proof you need to understand it’s time to bail.

It was time years ago.

#202 TurnerNation on 03.28.18 at 1:09 pm

#192 Stan Brooks concur. I lived up there over 10 years ago. It’s an area in social decline with the old guard stores closing in favor of flavor of the month expensive hipster joints.
And due to increased crime anywhere East of Donlands at Danforth is a no-go zone at night.
Remain Greeks have fled or died off in this Greektown area.

#203 renter in Surrey on 03.28.18 at 1:25 pm

Origin of money for RE in BC

http://parlvu.parl.gc.ca/XRender/en/PowerBrowser/PowerBrowserV2/20180327/-1/29018?useragent=Mozilla/5.0%20(Macintosh;%20Intel%20Mac%20OS%20X%2010.12;%20rv:59.0)%20Gecko/20100101%20Firefox/59.0

David Eby, showboat. – Garth

#204 renter in Surrey on 03.28.18 at 1:28 pm

If you want a $5 million home for $3.8, then Horgan is your guy!
————————————————————-
If I want $1.2 mln house in Langley for $600K, who is my guy? Or it never happening?

Not with this government. – Garth

#205 jess on 03.28.18 at 1:53 pm

sanctions rlly. russian bonds
Last month, City clearing houses, working alongside a major sanctioned Russian bank, helped issue $4bn (£2.83bn) of eurobonds to finance Russian sovereign debt, of which nearly half was sold in London markets. Nearly half the debt was bought by London-based investors, predominantly institutional investors.

A loophole in EU and UK legislation has allowed sanctioned Russian banks, primarily VTB bank, to act as the main organisers – known as book runners – for the issuance of Russian debt. ”

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/mar/28/may-considers-banning-city-of-london-from-selling-russian-debt

==========

Tax havens are a stain on Britain – the cleanup starts now
John Mann

We need answers about crown dependencies and overseas territories that help the wealthy dodge tax owed to society

• John Mann is chair of the Treasury subcommittee
he Guardian’s Panama and Paradise Papers investigations confirmed what had long been rumoured: tax havens, and the rules of financial secrecy that underpin them, have enabled the world’s financial elite to hide their cash away from public scrutiny, to the detriment of us all….
“HMRC’s figures from 2015-16 showed that 6% of tax due in Britain went uncollected – a whopping £34bn. About £1.7bn of this came from avoiding tax by taking legal steps to minimise one’s liability and an estimated £5.2bn came from evading tax illegally. With our public finances strained, it is an insult to diligent taxpayers that multinational firms and high-net-worth individuals can use a complex myriad of loopholes and accounting gymnastics to minimise their tax bill.”
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/mar/27/treasury-inquiry-tax-havens-stain-britain-cleanup

=========
The diplomatic reaction to the Salisbury poisoning won’t stop more terrorism. Better to stem the tide of dirty money

…”The National Crime Agency estimates that £90bn of criminal money is laundered through the UK each year. That is 4% of the UK’s GDP – and the estimate is probably conservative.

Much of the money goes into buying UK properties. Global Witness claims 85,000 properties across the UK are owned by companies that are incorporated in UK tax havens ”

====================
McMafia
Globalized Crime
Author and journalist Misha Glenny s
https://tvo.org/video/programs/the-agenda-with-steve-paikin/globalized-crime
===========================================
“snow washing” illicit funds.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/how-much-real-estate-do-foreigners-really-own-statscan-got-it-wrong/article37439665/
https://www.economist.com/news/business/21734034-identity-checks-obtain-library-card-are-more-onerous-those-form-private

#206 renter in Surrey on 03.28.18 at 1:54 pm

Not with this government. – Garth
————————————————————

I agree that it should not be government, but rather market forces. But it were government policies (low interest rates, CMHC insurance, ignoring money londering, etc) that drove RE prices to current levels in first place.

What government would be better? This RE accent started when Harper was PM, am I wrong?

This phase started after the credit crisis with plunging interest rates. Harper was irrelevant. – Garth

#207 Duke on 03.28.18 at 2:02 pm

#157 The 905 Is On Fire! on 03.28.18 at 8:11 am
(
(Nope, this is not another Al Sinclair headline.)

https://globalnews.ca/news/4107584/pickering-fire-no-injuries/

And yet again today:

http://www.680news.com/2018/03/28/fire-pickering-home/

Expect many more mysterious fires in the 905 and cottage country in the months ahead.

A destructively creative way out of a falling market…..

Good time to start liquidating shares in insurance companies, too.

=====================

It must be either a meth lab or insurance fraud. With high level of debt, people look for supplemental income and a meth lab is a way to make quick money. Insurance fraud is another possibility as RE prices are falling.

#208 Newcomer on 03.28.18 at 2:04 pm

#194 Good job Canada! on 03.28.18 at 12:14 pm
For those of you that might counter by saying “move”. I’m almost in agreement. We have considered it but everything in Canada is too expensive for what you are getting …

—–

I agreed with everything in your comment but this in particular. It makes sense to me that Vancouver is more expensive than, say, Barrie. And when you look at what you get in Barrie, including the weather, the countryside, the amenities, and so on, it is actually a significantly worse deal than Vancouver. The same can be said of essentially everywhere in Canada, other than the Maritimes.

You need to get out more. – Garth

#209 renter in Surrey on 03.28.18 at 2:09 pm

This phase started after the credit crisis with plunging interest rates. Harper was irrelevant. – Garth
————————————————————-
He could reduce max amortization and CMHC insurance to prevent this. But amortization was increased instead. So he has something to do with that.

Some, but not much. Coming out of the credit crisis, big borrowing was exactly what the Bank of Canada was hoping for. That’s why rates fell. – Garth

#210 Reddy on 03.28.18 at 2:18 pm

Thanks Garth. Appreciate you doing that…

#211 VanMan on 03.28.18 at 2:35 pm

#199 Mattl on 03.28.18 at 12:36 pm
Ogopogo – stop embarrassing yourself. You’ve been waiting 7 years in Kelowna? This market, save the last 18 months has been mostly flat, single digit yoy. You could have bought SFH for under 300 in 2011, for free money lol. Or acreage lakeview under 600. Even now homes stay up for 70 plus days.

You vulchers kill me. You missed the previous buying opp and expect us to believe you are going to find the next one. By the time you buy in you would be halfway to paying off the 2011 house , payments less then todays sfh rental cost.

Not suggesting now is a good time to buy but 2011-2016 were great times to get in and if you didn’t like those prices expect to be waiting forever.

_______________________

Comment of the day! (applause).

Same can be said of all of lower mainland.

#212 Entrepreneur on 03.28.18 at 2:53 pm

All three major political parties are “socialist and lettuce-heads” and #207 renter in Surrey is correct when this all started when Harper was in power (or somewhat).

Could the need to have foreign anything not to be touched because Canada’s economy is not in good shape. Remember when Christy Clark said that if we tax the foreigners the real estate will crash or something similar. And another time she said BC economy is on top.

Parties are giving away freebies to win so I will vote for the first person who says that they will abandoned the income tax and honour what was promised.

And the only time people of a province or country get a say is at the voting station. We can shout, protest all we want but will be ignored. Oh, the big thing coming from the Federal Liberals is that they will help save the whales, really? Just bring on those 7X more oil tankers on our oceans with a world-class response, what a disaster in the making.

#213 jess on 03.28.18 at 3:16 pm

The man who in 2014 claimed to be a Spanish flight controller and blamed Ukraine for shooting down Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17, turns out to be a petty criminal who says he was paid to launch the hoax, a journalist investigation revealed …

Who is Carlos? claimed he was paid by RT

https://www.occrp.org/en/27-ccwatch/cc-watch-briefs/7772-investigation-ex-convict-ran-pro-russian-twitter-account

#214 jess on 03.28.18 at 3:18 pm

Even President Vladimir Putin referred to the claims of the Spanish air controller in an interview with Oliver Stone.

“As far as I know, right away after this terrible catastrophe, one of the Ukrainian air controllers — I think he is a specialist of Spanish origin — announced that he had seen a military aircraft in the corridor assigned for civil aircraft. And there could have been no other military aircraft there but Ukraine’s,” Putin is quoted as saying in the Russian-language version of Stone’s book.

#215 Bod Dog on 03.28.18 at 3:23 pm

Thats Mr Bentley the Dog.

https://www.instagram.com/mrbentley_thedog/?hl=en

See him around Yaletown with his human sometimes.

#216 Stan Brooks on 03.28.18 at 3:25 pm

Some, but not much. Coming out of the credit crisis, big borrowing was exactly what the Bank of Canada was hoping for. That’s why rates fell. – Garth

————————–

No.

The problem was with too much borrowing. You don’t fix it with more borrowing.
We should have taken our pill as US did.

Our housing market tanked, 15 % down in matter of weeks in 2009.

We should have used low rates to deleverage, not to increase leverage.

As a result, our crash will be horrendous, surpassing by far the US/Ireland/Japanese crashes.

As we have irrelevant currency in highly indebted economy with the worst current account balance per capita in the world.

+ we like to hide our liabilities in crown corporations provincial debt.

I am absolutely shocked by the giant lies that downplay the debt reducing ti only to part of the federal debt, even excluding crown corporations from it.

It is a giant lie as the giant was the lie about our banks being example of stability in 2009 (due to hidden 120 billion infusion of liquidity).

If we were honest we could have long forgotten about the crises of 2009. We choose to lie. Now we will face the real crises, the like of which we have never seen.

Buckle up.

#217 Stan Brooks on 03.28.18 at 3:37 pm

crisis damn it.

#218 James on 03.28.18 at 4:00 pm

Several top US law firms have left President Donald Trump with few places to turn for legal help in the Russia probe. Five large law firms are passing on the opportunity to represent the President after a shakeup last week on his private defense team and as he anticipates giving possible testimony to special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation.
Well-known Washington lawyers cited several reasons for declining the President in recent weeks, according to multiple sources familiar with their decisions. Among them, Trump appears to be a difficult client and has rebuked some of his lawyers’ advice. He’s perceived as so politically unpopular he may damage reputations rather than boost them. Lawyers at large firms fear backlash from their corporate clients if they were to represent the President. And many want to steer clear of conflicts of interest that could complicate their other obligations.
I hereby suggest the indubitable esteemed firm of
Dewy, Cheat-um & Howe.

#219 acdel on 03.28.18 at 5:35 pm

#161 maxx

Max, I am not familiar with what is happening in Ontario besides the news headlines (which are usually B.S.) with the exception of a few good reporters and what I read on this blog from Ontario.

What I have read from you is that you are as frustrated as I am although we are in different parts of the country.

The majority of us are, we are attempted to being weaken by the very powerful minority (sponsored) by whom ever to not vote, to fall in line, to be good soldiers (in which I admire the true ones to the fullest), but most of us are frustrated, Garth has given us an avenue to voice our frustrations and perhaps educate as well as to “NOT GIVE UP”, these fools are exactly that “FOOLS”! What ever what region, those of us that have the same values must keep the path.

#220 aa5 on 03.28.18 at 5:57 pm

The revenues for the BC government will fall off a cliff without the free money replenishing home ATM’s.

That imo is what is driving the total desperation here.

I think the NDP are desperately trying to get credit too, but being told no.

#221 Linda on 03.28.18 at 7:11 pm

#119 ‘Jane24’ – you make an excellent point regarding the anticipated robotization of the work force. There are a lot of jobs that will disappear as automation with AI robots replaces costly human beings. The problem is that there is currently no plan on how to manage the displaced. What will all those people do if their jobs ‘go away’ but their living expenses remain? Few if any will have sufficient funds to live on for the rest of their lives. Government programs such as EI will eventually end & unless there are human centric jobs that the unemployed can train for & get within the time frame of EI benefits ending, the outcome is likely to be catastrophic for those whose jobs are affected.

Many will say this is alarmist & rightfully point out that many industries have gone the way of the dodo bird, with the eventual outcome being a better standard of living as people found work in new industries. The difference is that the changes happened at a human pace. If AI is able to push the pace of change closer to computer speed, people simply won’t have enough time to adjust. This will greatly magnify the impact of change.

#222 maxx on 03.28.18 at 7:34 pm

#146 Howard on 03.28.18 at 6:07 am

“I recall some people here complaining that Harper’s increase in the TFSA limit (reversed by Airhead) was just a vote-buying stunt. True enough.

But now, Premier Orville Redenbacher is proposing free childcare for the 4-year period between the end of mat leave until the start of JK. Social engineering, more helicopter money at freeloaders.

Which version of vote-buying do you prefer? At least Harper’s was egalitarian and oriented towards responsible saving. Every citizen could have taken advantage of the higher TFSA limit.”

Agree 100%. However, what airhead and Orville do understand (much to the detriment of a potentially thriving economy and motivating people to save) is that the average prole prefers to be spoon fed the refunded “gift” of a tiny portion of their taxes rather than going to all the bother of saving and investing.

#223 AG on 03.29.18 at 12:07 am

Only morons vote in NDP governments more than once. BC must now ride the little bus to school forever.