Last March Rob Alexander was a happy guy. Houses were flying off the shelf. Agents were ecstatic. Sellers were raking it in. “Unprecedented” was the word Rob chose to describe what was happening in Barrie, the burg 110 km north of the Big Smoke, which is now part of the commutershed.
“Monthly home sales in March 2017 cracked 700 for the first time in history,” he said in the media release of the real estate board, of which he was president. “That is perhaps not so surprising since we have been experiencing record level demand for some time now, but it is unprecedented to see this many sales this early in the year. April, May and June may well see even more homes trade hands…”
The city of 150,000 souls, long a northern outcrop of the GTA, connected to the distant downtown by one of the deadliest, scariest expressways in the nation, suddenly turned hot. Minivans streamed north as families traded more snow and a longer commute for dramatically cheaper houses. But soon the Toronto bubble had spread to the shores of Kempenfelt Bay.
Sales last March shot higher 27% year/year in the area and 40% in the city itself. Astonishing to the locals was a 36.9% surge in house prices, catapulting the average through the half-million mark, to $547,847. Barrie was cheap and blue collar no more.
Well, the fire’s out. In fact, the town borders on a real estate disaster.
Transactions have plunged from more than 700 in 2017 to just 263 last month – a drop of more than 66%. The overall decrease in the first two months of the year was 33%, so you can see the downward momentum. Within the city itself, a mere 139 sales – 64% fewer than this month one year ago. The average price is also dropping – off 4.5% to barely over $509,000 – showing that even sticky valuations eventually come unglued. Likely there are bigger drops yet to come, as has been the case to the south in Vaughan, Richmond Hill or Markham.
Barrie provides a neat microcosm of how real estate thrives and dies. House sales and prices soared wildly for no discernible economic reason. The average place cost $381,000 in 2015, and jumped to $547,000 twenty-four months later – a 43% bloat. Meanwhile the population remained relatively stable, incomes were static (the average family brings in $81,000 before tax), and no major employers opened their doors. At the heart of the bubble was speculation, fueled by low interest rates and herd instinct. As the GTA swelled, so did the hinterland, from Niagara to Kingston – a sea of house horniness almost 400 km wide.
Give the 2-hour commute to Toronto, there was always a reason Barrie was cheap. But that was erased quickly as FOMO pushed further and further north.
Today Barrie is pooched. At least those who purchased a year ago are. They bought at peak house in a place where real estate is destined to continue to fall in value. Simply put, it lacks the population base, in-migration or internal demand to sustain bubble prices. That’s tough news in a town where there are 1,000 realtors and just 263 sales.
Outside of demand 416 hoods, urban Van and a few other spots, 2018 will be tough on most regional markets. In two or three more months the effects of the B20 stress test will be evident as credit is seriously restricted for newbie buyers. Ham-handed politicians continue to make things more dire with foreign buyers taxes, enhanced property taxes, empty house taxes and BC’s stunningly daft speculation tax. Now we have the spectre of a Trumpian trade war looming and Canada, as a trading nation, is in the crosshairs.
Of course, the greatest threat to housing is the same thing that most inflated it – the cost of money. A year ago, when Barrie was Stormy Daniels-hot, purchasers could find five-year mortgages at the scanty rate of 2%. No more. Fivers are close to 3.5% and with the stress test buyers must qualify at 5.14% or higher.
The US Fed raised its benchmark rate another quarter point last week – the fifth in about a year. Current odds are running more than 80% that the Bank of Canada will hike the cost of money for the fourth time in 10 months at its May setting, driving the stress test ever-closer to 6%.
Meanwhile, we have uncertainty. Disquiet. Concerns. Financial markets have been volatile and changeable. International bodies keep warning our banks have too much property exposure. Trump, as detailed here Friday, is quixotic and unpredictable. There’s no NAFTA deal yet, and now we have a new threat from Washington. That could bring big news in Barrie, where the largest private employer is a Honda factory. The second is a casino.
This blog has told you often that people are weird. They lust for things exploding in value (705 sales) and shun them when they fall (263 deals). They make really bad decisions ($547,847) then have a hard time admitting it ($509,000). They buy on emotion because everyone else is. The behaviour is classic, and foolhardy.
Highway 400 will be a sad ride for a while.
181 comments ↓
Now this is early!
eh garth I just want to thank you for doing this blog.
Before I found this blog a few months ago I was basically financially illiterate and planning on scraping together every nickel I could to buy a condo in YVR.
ty for saving me from financial suicide. For now I’ll keep renint and maxing out my TFSA. thanks again.
At the heart of the bubble was speculation, fueled by low interest rates and herd instinct.
……………………………..
…..and at the heart of speculation are the tax free capital gains whether you are a citizen of Canada or not.
Most speculators are not buying principal residences. – Garth
We just sold our McMansion in NW YYC – for ~6% more than we bought it for, five years ago. We have not closed yet, but conditions are waived. Fingers crossed. I see a lot of ‘Price Reduced’ notices in my inbox.
Going to rent for 1/2 the cost of owning in the same hood and see how this all plays out.
The handwringing and hyperbole about Facebook’s involvement with Cambridge Analytica is a bit overdone. We’ve seen this movie before. Does anyone remember “subliminal advertising”?
In subliminal advertising a message is flashed repeatedly on a movie or TV screen so fast it can’t be consciously perceived. The theory is viewers would be subconsciously affected by the message. At peak media frenzy, there was much blathering about how it represented a new era of mind control and democracy was at risk.
I worked for a while as a manager in a market research company specializing in television advertising. Our technical people thought subliminal advertising was nonsense. Our clients were Fortune 500 companies and they would have been all over it if they thought it had even half a chance.
Still nothing would convince the media that we weren’t all about to die in our beds until they got bored and moved on to the next panic. Younger blog dogs should note that this panic/moral outrage cycle is nothing new and is only getting worse with the internet. It sells clicks like nothing else.
The attached article gives a good explanation of what Cambridge Analytica was trying to do. It seems to amount to trying to infer a person’s psychological profile from their Facebook likes. Interesting but I’m not sure my old clients would have bought into it even if Steve Bannon did. The search for the infallible way to target ads is like the quest for the guaranteed stock picking system. It will never end and will never succeed.
There are of course other significant issues in the Analytica story like privacy of data but anyone who thought Facebook was protecting their data shouldn’t be allowed out without a minder.
I reluctantly agree with Trump supporters that this story only has legs because of the fanciful idea that Analytica’s digital skullduggery was enough to get him elected but nobody cared when Obama did similar things.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-what-is-the-science-behind-cambridge-analytica-scandal/
The party has to come to an end right?? Although your reasonings are sound, they have been wrong. Property values have been going away from the fundamentals for years, for the exact same reasons. Interest rates, government, FOMO, etc etc etc. NOTHING yet had made a significant dent in the upward trajectory. City centers will always be expensive for average people, but when Abbotsford and Chilliwack have SFH at over 800-1million.. We have a problem.
FUUURRRSSTTTT!!!!!
Look on my works, ye Mighty, and despair!
I heard an excellent description for that new fangled “wuud” that they are using to build houses, you know the stuff, it’s that particulate press board they are using that looks like the remnants that were swept up from a carpenter’s shop floor…………….”Beaver Puke”………….
Looking at Trump’s trail of bombastic announcements followed almost inevitably by climb downs and temporizing, it is easy to conclude he is either demented or clueless. However if you consider that his base is supposed to consist of low information voters who only get their news from Fox, Facebook or conspiracy blogs, his approach makes a kind of sense.
It is an axiom of public relations that the first message drowns out everything that follows. If Trump tweets that he is imposing tariffs on all imported steel, he gets giant headlines. The base is thrilled. He is standing up for them against Them. The steady climb down is not reported with the same intensity and may not reach many in the base who only read headlines. The few who figure it out are still left with the original emotional glow of identifying with their champion.
Of course, even if we credit Trump with actually having a plan, it is doing vast damage to the reputation of the US government but if Trump cared about other people, he wouldn’t be Trump. He is essentially holding the GOP to ransom and at bay by threatening to rally his base against any relatively sane candidates they may want to run in the next elections. Keeping his base fired up is an essential tool even if he doesn’t really care about them.
I have no way to know if Trump has such a plan but it seems to fit the observable facts including his continued rabid support in the face of few real accomplishments that supposedly matter to his supporters.
There also may be an alarming parallel here with Russia. Putin is popular because he is seen as making Russia great again. He escapes much of the blame for Russia’s problems because people apparently blame the “boyars”, the oligarchs, for thwarting Putin’s good intentions for his people. Trump has “the Swamp”.
So, if this isn’t 2008 why so many empty shop fronts on main street downtowns and in the malls? From Canada to Manhattan NY. That along with the record gas prices at the pumps in Vancouver as well as high gas prices across the country, Canadian consumers being the most indebted in the World, $1.5 trillion in mortgages outstanding amongst 6 million borrowers of which 3 million have HELOCS to name a few things in Cda, record number of retailers going under, Cdn banks ranked highest risk along with Hong King and China….
the US economy is doing and will do better is due to pro-business decisions by Trump
https://www.investors.com/politics/commentary/trump-just-did-something-obama-never-could-deliver-on-promised-gdp-growth/
Obama just wasn’t focused on the economy. he had 10 years to turn things around and just didn’t know what to do
“Monthly home sales in March 2017 cracked 700 for the first time in history,”
when real estate peaked in spring 2017 nobody knew
except gartho
and me
you’re welcome
Rental market still hot in the 416. Even in sleepy parkdale and bud put down rental applications for 3 places and finally got accepted on 4th try.
Couple weeks ago I was the only bidder on a newish townhouse in Leslieville and I lowballed 5% under. Came within a couple G of closing but nothing happened. Week later, place sold for full price. Still crazies out there!!!
Calgary mouses are super inexpensive now. Been dropping for years in our little Alberta recession. The NW went up a bit earlier so dropping back now. We just bought a drastically reduced price home in central of city. Finally starting to pay into my TFSA… hoping to max it by end of year.. things are looking up!
pro tip: happiness is directly correlated to your commute… live in Barrie and work downtown TO brings a lifetime of sadness
The year of 2078. Blog dogs excitedly discuss bill B220 designed to restrict credit and make houses finally affordable in Canada. Average price for SFD in Langley BC already dropped 15% – from $28mln to $23.8mln. The trend is your friend is the main theme on the forum…
For all those blaming Donald Trump for everything including a cold winter-don’t worry-in 2020 he will be defeated by either Kamala Harris, crazy Bernie, Pocahontas Warren or Creepy Uncle Joe-then all your personal problems will vanish with the wind. Current odds:
Trump 1.9 to 1
Harris 14 to 1
Bernie 16 to 1
Warren 18 to1
Biden 20 to 1
Month after month, and year after year YVR continues to make many folks very wealthy. Why is that, what is different here? No matter what the government does YVR RE refuses to chill. The question is rhetorical of course. The folks living here have long known what’s up. But that is fine. Clean air, clean air, nice schools, peaceful rule of law and one of the top 10 places in the world to live if you like cities. If you don’t want to pay the piper to live here then fine, here is your self contained breathing apparatus, enjoy the coal smog.
4 hours to Stormy !
Melanie and Donald have already separated, she is staying in Florida, he has flown to Washington.
Enjoy your popcorn and the distraction tonight, it will be the last bit of entertainment for a long time.
But understand how this will fuel a total unraveling of the USA, in mere hours and days.
Popcorn.
Fuel.
Food supplies.
Batteries.
Water.
Radiation-proof blankets.
Self defense.
PREPARE.
Why anyone would turn to Facebook for their news when greaterfool is available daily is beyond me.
Most speculators are not buying principal residences. – Garth
………………………….
We all know that. They are speculating and flipping for the tax free capital gains.
#18 Dog in The Fight
Indeed, Garth didn’t explain his opinion why Urban YVR would be exempt from this correction…
Where did I say ‘exempt’? It’s a matter of degree. – Garth
the average price of 500k is misleading as when volume falls typically only they higher end stock gets sold. the overall fall is likely considerably more, but it will take the rate increases to flush them out.
Andrew Woburn: agreed on the FB/Analytica moral panic.
This article was also good:
https://thebaffler.com/latest/cambridge-analytica-con-levine
They are selling our data and it does matter, but it’s not “magic”.
Econ 101 …. EZ money results in inflated assets ….. and it’s been EZ for a long time. Houses as well as financial paper are overly inflated, everywhere.
‘Financial paper’? Stocks, bonds, trusts, preferreds, options, term deposits, etc – you cannot paint all with the same brush, unless you are young & foolish. – Garth
Three months into B20, and southern Vancouver Island is still hot. Prices have gone nowhere but up; houses are still selling because there is no inventory – hence the decline in sales; and rents have almost doubled in the last year.
B20, rising interest rates, ‘comrade’ tax policies are all red herrings – zero, I mean zero impact on prices in Vancouver Island. The much vaunted moister killer, B20, has done nothing. And nor will it.
Meanwhile, if there is every an effect, the amount people have paid in ridiculous rents – almost close to mortgage payments in communities surrounding Victoria – will be more than any prices declines taking place over years. Remember, prices are sticky on the way down so this 13 year bull run will take that much time to unwind. That is 26 years – thats a lifetime of bad choices in renting.
Don’t be so hasty. The ill-advised BC changes are not even law yet. – Garth
You dirty uneducated SHYSTERS are not qualified to get a minimum wage job. Most of you are useless eaters that tell stupid lies and try to pass them off as truth. Many will losing EVERYTHING as the Housing crash goes from bad to very bad with worse yet to come years from now. You useless SHYSTERS have ruined countless lives and families.
“the average price of 500k is misleading as when volume falls typically only they higher end stock gets sold. the overall fall is likely considerably more”
Very true. If a proper sales mix adjustment was performed on the data in question, the peak likely was in 2013, just like much of the rest of the country.
First time buyers locked out + supply onslaught from the high prices + boomers trading amongst themselves + landlord families flipping properties back and forth between each other = higher Realtor-quoted “average selling prices” even in the absence of price growth on individual identical properties transacted between arms-length individuals.
Barrie provides a neat microcosm of how real estate thrives and dies. House sales and prices soared wildly for no discernible economic reason. The average place cost $381,000 in 2015, and jumped to $547,000 twenty-four months later – a 43% bloat.
Hey Mark the 2013 peak RE guy – Garth is saying that that you are wrong. I am sure you are going to post a long rebuttal about your sales mix theory again which I’m going to quickly scroll thru.
#26 Bad Choices , the same is everywhere… not real impact…. don’t look also at small bumps… same as any investment .. goes up and down and up again…
The average place cost $381,000 in 2015, and jumped to $547,000 twenty-four months later – a 43% bloat.
history will associate 2017 with maximum RE bloat
Hey are you trying to mock me?
Stormy Daniels hot..HAHa
I guess you do have good taste Garth.
Here we go…. They say it will start tomorrow…
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03-21/china-days-away-killing-petrodollar?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29
The US dollar will be the global currency as long as everyone reading this blog is alive. Don’t get too excited. – Garth
Things are being felt but a lot of people are slow to clue in. I have a friend in Mississauga who purchased her house ~$640k 10 yrs ago. She just listed it a month ago for 1.2M and expected it to sell in days. It had two offers that fell threw and has now been on the market for a month. She is out looking for something closer to downtown and a subway line. She just assumes the market is good and her house will sell any day for close to asking. Wonder how long it will take for the average person to realize that things are changing.
Grew up in Barrie, my family bought a new home in south Barrie (Allendale) in 1964. It was $7000 and the family income was $12000 roughly. Not making any sense.
The only thing wrong with the ill advised speculator tax is that is wasn’t high enough. The off shore folks that have bought here are not going anywhere. They are willing to pay almost anything for clean air, clean water and government which isn’t corrupt. Like me they are concerned about their children’s future which I get. Since we are shutting down industry out here to provide the environment we enjoy Beautiful British Columbia needs to get the cash from somewhere, and we have something that is priceless. So if 2% proves to be too low, then go to 3% and so on. Lets not give away that which people with cash want.
It’s a wealth tax, not a speculation tax. Pure NDP. More Albertans and Ontario residents than rich Chinese will be nailed. This is bad for Canada, and for you. – Garth
…. and who are these speculators that have driven the market in Vancouver. It seems like a lot of real estate “salespeople” have driven FOMO and the Foreign buyer meme for personal gain. Whaaaat? Can’t be.
“he Globe also reviewed records of 1,585 building permits issued in the suburb of Richmond since 2011. More than 200 of the single-family properties – 14 per cent – were owned by people who were brokers or shared a name with a broker; or by a numbered company with a broker listed as a director. Some owned multiple properties. A sample of 2015 Vancouver building permits yielded similar results. (Building permits are instructive because broker-owners often demolish an older house, build a new one and sell it for up to double their purchase price.)”
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/investigations/the-real-estate-technique-fuelling-vancouvers-housing-market/article28634868/
#24 ben on 03.25.18 at 3:50 pm
Andrew Woburn: agreed on the FB/Analytica moral panic.
This article was also good:
https://thebaffler.com/latest/cambridge-analytica-con-levine
==================
Thanks. Really good article.
It reinforces the idea that Democrats can’t understand that they lost the election, not that Trump won.
Hillary wasn’t a great candidate but she came very close. I suspect many American women just couldn’t bring themselves to vote for a woman. In the wake of the #Metoo movement, that could be about to change.
#11 Leo Trollstoy on 03.25.18 at 2:00 pm
the US economy is doing and will do better is due to pro-business decisions by Trump
https://www.investors.com/politics/commentary/trump-just-did-something-obama-never-could-deliver-on-promised-gdp-growth/
Obama just wasn’t focused on the economy. he had 10 years to turn things around and just didn’t know what to do
……
Just did a ten mile walk through the heart of Corona Del Mar. Almost every retail shop has help wanted adds in their windows. The economy is not booming. It’s exploding. Super high rates to follow.
The wife got s manicure and a peddy. I just did a peddy. Bill 95 USD and the place was packed.
Those rates will follow in Canada. Real Estate is going to be a shit asset class for the next 5 to 10 years.
Higher interest rates will probably result in slower growth and lower GDPs everywhere ….. recession time … and of course lower equity values.
Rates rise when CBs estimate economies are strong enough to absorb them. Stronger economies create more profitable companies. History shows equity markets rise during most tightening cycles. Maybe you should stick with your day job there at Sbux. – Garth
@ #3 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 03.25.18 at 1:10 pm
I agree!
I don’t know a single “mom & pop” speculator who has paid a penny in capital gains tax on their investment homes – not one! There are so many techniques to get around the capital gains tax for real estate.
The only people paying capital gains tax are those buying stocks and bonds outside of a TFSA. RRSP accounts get nailed hard at the exit door and so they don’t count. RRSPs are just a useless government vehicle that keeps you happy during your working years – they get you will the tax when you are weak, old, and somewhat clueless.
So long as foreign and domestic investors get to enjoy tax free capital gains on real estate you would be a fool to expect prices to fall in any meaningful way.
So tell us how to legally ‘get around’ paying capital gains tax on non-principal residences. – Garth
It’s a wealth tax, not a speculation tax. Pure NDP. More Albertans and Ontario residents than rich Chinese will be nailed. This is bad for Canada, and for you. – Garth
Yes it is a wealth tax. We’ll see what the final legislation looks like. But the fact remains that we have something special here and we must charge what the market will bear. I wouldn’t expect you to sell your ice cream at less than full market value. If folks can and will pay the tax then we should charge it. There isn’t any industry left in the LM other than a couple of dying saw mills, and professional protesting. Cash gotta come from somewhere.
In my day to day life I deal with 100’s of folks that live in both China, Russia and the middle east who are white as well as other races. Many of them are gaming the system. What would your solution be?
I fail to see why a wealth tax is bad for Canada. We have all kinds of taxes which are progressive in nature. Why should real estate be exempt?
You will learn. – Garth
Sold almost 1 million less than assessed in Point Grey:
https://twitter.com/RWong1975/status/977063600249425921
Hey Garth… Living in Barrie since 2002 I have witnessed many changes. Some good some negative but overall it’s been a positive move from soulless Toronto. The 2 hour commute you noted though most who work in Toronto travel by train. Royal Victoria hospital has been a huge employer which provided excellent paying jobs that pushed home prices higher plus most that I have met recently are either retired, cashed out and moved here with plenty in the bank so Garth’s impression that many will face a negative return is somewhat misleading. Barrie is 40% retired,.. 40% young families who are currently priced out of single detached homes and there is a big boom for townhomes and the remaining 20% such as myself are middle aged and mortgage free. We have a wonderful clean lake only minutes away…ski hills, open fields and the door step to muskoka so I doubt many will be too upset if prices reflect a more realistic value.nice try Garth in making Barrie homeowners appear to be up a creek…more like we’re paddling that creek on weekends…
I said those who succumbed to peak house prices will regret it. The rest of you will rationalize. – Garth
#19 trumpocalypse 2018
Q: you wouldn’t happen to be the guy that used to be seen on the don mills overpass with the placards reading
“the End Is Near”?
The US dollar will be the global currency as long as everyone reading this blog is alive. Don’t get too excited. – Garth
Exactly
$US all day every day
You’re welcome
I also need to add that spike in home sales that past few years was largely due to the hospital expansion and Georgian college expansion that brought hundreds of new Jobs thus fueling that growth…
great article…why not do an article on shorting…they should know how it works as their capital value erodes…
“The economy is not booming. It’s exploding. Super high rates to follow. “
Based on one data point. Meanwhile retail sales are posting massive declines nationwide.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-retail/u-s-retail-sales-post-biggest-decline-in-11-months-idUSKCN1FY1X8
There’s a big problem with using anecdotal data from literally one place, and extrapolating it across the entire nation.
Rates may very well go higher, but not due to a hot economy — quite the opposite, if the US economy was actually doing well, production would be up and trade deficits would be dramatically shrinking. And plenty of capital would be generated to keep interest rates low, something that’s clearly not happening.
#38Andy-good point about METOO-kinda funny that both Harvey Weinstein (who got the whole thing started) and Anthony Weiner were such close friends of Crooked Hillary-LOL.
should be buying Real estate in Europe as our dollar tanks the Euro surges it has already…it’s like getting a free down payment…and only 1.75% 5 year rates…sking in the Alps is fun!
GTA is one ugly place….
It’s a wealth tax, not a speculation tax. – Garth
————————–
Wealth taxes are awesome though.
Taxing wealth and financial transactions is far more progressive than taxing income and consumption.
More of the former, less of the latter please!
DELETED
Only reason ever to find yourself in Kempenfelt Bay is to be on top of it, not beside it. Lake trout and white fish plenty, but when no luck perch will do…
https://imgur.com/a/RbYX7
#42 Dog in The Fight on 03.25.18 at 5:31 pm
>> In my day to day life I deal with 100’s of folks that live in both China, Russia and the middle east who are white as well as other races. Many of them are gaming the system. What would your solution be?
Taxes should be increased on Canadians who are not dual citizens to make up for the losses. Canadians who have stolen bread from Loblaws should be thrown in jail – no parole, ever. Canadians arrogant enough to start businesses should be gleefully audited and assessed into ruination by the CRA.
Plus ca change…..
I did the long commute for years and looking back it was a mistake. I justified it by saying I can get a bigger house outside the metro and that it would all be worth it at the end. It wasn’t.
Car maintenance costs really add up, the stress and length of the commute affects your health negatively, you are tired at work and at home, no time to do anything fun with your kids, and you can’t keep up with general household duties so you eat out more and spend $$$.
My advice to young professionals with families is to buy or rent closer to your job. Change jobs to another area if you need to. The time you save is important and you could make some serious cash with a side hustle that might grow into a full-time business.
I knew a guy who had a craigslist ad stating he fixed dishwashers. He came after his regular job and checked my dishwasher and noticed the water pressure was low, dishwasher was fine. It took him 10 minutes total and he charged $40 cash. He later told me that majority of his calls are from people who have low water pressure and dishwashers are fine. He had three more calls to go to that day. Great side hustle.
Null problemo! The new batch of Ninja Loans is selling like hot pancakes …
https://twitter.com/Mr_Silbergleit/status/978020571278589952
Whatever happened to FreedomFirst ??
Really who would buy in Barrie? Didn’t you example a million dollar townhouse there about one year ago? I shook my head.
#41 Bossman on 03.25.18 at 5:24 pm
“I agree!
I don’t know a single “mom & pop” speculator who has paid a penny in capital gains tax on their investment homes – not one! There are so many techniques to get around the capital gains tax for real estate.”
——————————————————————–
LMFAO… You are full of crap. Ask the thousands that are currently being audited by the CRA, as to how much they have to pay….
Sure lotsa name-calling and labeling on here lately…oh well, at least a few of us are still capable of getting upset! Good to see that damned flouride in the water hasn’t washed all away all of our passion yet haha
Misc thought processes this weekend…
Hitler’s actions on gun control notwithstanding, check out his parties’ anti-smoking campaigns. Drawing parallels can be a dangerous experiment…re: the current emphasis on gun control, I’m aware that both of the states/cities with the most restrictive gun laws in the USA are Chicago and NYC…they also share the highest body count.
Maybe we could just stop making the damned things for a few years? And lets stop producing opioids for a while too…there, epidemic solved. Rush can get addicted to salt n vinegar chips the next time (like me)
And just why do these supposedly random spree shootings occur nowhere except the USA? What in hell is going on here? And why is no one in a “leadership” position publicly asking this question?
Moving on, I noticed SM last nite referred to his belief in “unregulated capitalism” and that the the best rise to the top. Firstly, that’s pretty much what’s turning most western countries into plutocracies, and secondly; monetary wealth (or the pursuit of such) has not, is not, and never will be an effective measure of “the best”.
(the best players at unregulated capitalism are simply the best adapted, or trained, or naturally talented to play that game…period. It doesn’t mean they are naturally superlative human beings who should be running and/or directing everything, including most peoples lives, usually for their own selfish benefit.)
To wit, maybe Galileo should have quit wasting his time worrying about those stupid planets and their useless orbital periods, and concentrated on investing in that tulip bulb bubble. He could have done something really useful with all that cash, like buy lotsa property and stocks and started speculating on currencies. Newton? Gravity? Who gives a damn? How the hell you gonna make that pay? Don’t even get me started on Vermeer or Da Vinci…all of ’em missed the boat on filling their pockets with as much money as possible because they were dawdling with other stuff!
I’m cherry picking a couple centuries here; there’s obviously a whole bunch more peeps who made positive contributions to humankind because they imagined, or were just curious, and persevered; and our planet is better for it. Or maybe, they believed in things or had some principals, Lord help us…always dangerous!
Lastly, using the word “leaders” implies peeps must be led…wherever, whenever, for whatever reason…that implication alone I’ve always found rather disturbing right from the start.
RE-wise, we pooched…even in north central AB…MIL had an appraiser out the acreage the other day, gave her a number that about 70K off her expectations. She needs to sell and move into town, so its kindof a zero-sum game…RE dudette said nuthin is selling there either. Lots of workin’ man’s bungalows/bilevels/3 level splits for mid to hi 200’s here.
Probably A LOT more in 60 days!
Sutton is under much more selling pressure than Barrie. Partly because of the special assessment tax for local improvements over the next 8 years in the northern part and incomes being among the lowest in the entire GTA. The B20 stress test freezes out almost all of the locals.
#6 Nic on 03.25.18 at 1:52 pm
The party has to come to an end right?? Although your reasonings are sound, they have been wrong. Property values have been going away from the fundamentals for years, for the exact same reasons. Interest rates, government, FOMO, etc etc etc. NOTHING yet had made a significant dent in the upward trajectory. City centers will always be expensive for average people, but when Abbotsford and Chilliwack have SFH at over 800-1million.. We have a problem.
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We have a problem when an averaged priced house in Vancouver that could be purchased for 2.5 to 3 times one average income in the not too distant past now costs 20 times two annual incomes. When most homeowners in the lower mainland would not be able to qualify to purchase their own home, you know you have a major problem. It will not be different this time, it will be much worse. Most will not get to realize those illusionary gains. Wait and see.
#12 Leo Trollstoy on 03.25.18 at 2:02 pm
“Monthly home sales in March 2017 cracked 700 for the first time in history,”
when real estate peaked in spring 2017 nobody knew
except gartho
and me
you’re welcome
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But according to Mark it was 2013 right?
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Living in Los Angeles in 2003 ( approx same era as what 416 is going through now) we were priced out of investment properties – all of which were strongly cash flow negative anyway. Looking further afield we did a day trip around the hill to lancaster and palmdale. It was nuts. We weren’t even allowed on the property unless we had a reservation to speak to a salesperson. Within in two years it was gone, and with 3 entire incomplte subdvisions were being bulldozed under. The bank was being fined by the city for their unfinished homes, and since they were worthless they were just plowed under to stop the pain….not sayng that’s barries fate, but when you are 2 hrs away and there is nothing holding up the boom things can get real bad….
“Well, the fire’s out. In fact, the town borders on a real estate disaster.” – Garth
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Sorry, but I think the only RE disaster will be for the poor folk who don’t buy GTA RE in the next little while. We currently have a possible window of affordable opportunity. For a time. However, in 10 years time, GTA RE will be worth much more than it is today. This is an inescapable truth. If you don’t believe it, just look at the massive influx of people into the GTA. At least a couple of hundred thousand per year.
Toronto population growth slowed significantly over the last two census periods – the most in 40 years of statistics. – Garth
“The average price is also dropping – off 4.5% to barely over $509,000 – showing that even sticky valuations eventually come unglued.” – Garth
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Seriously, what is the worry? A drop of 4.5% is nothing compared to a 36% surge last year! Let’s get real. Ten years from now, GTA RE will be worth much more than it is today. Period.
Let’s guess. You own in Barrie, right? – Garth
Hi Garth,
In your blog you quoted “….. In two or three more months the effects of the B20 stress test will be evident as credit is seriously restricted for newbie buyers…”
Wouldn’t the B20 stress test be evident now as it was in effect January 1st, 2018. We should by now see some downturn on the Real Estate, especially here in B.C. High priced homes in B.C. have not moved, mind you they are not flying off the shelf as being sold either.
If anyone, or yourself are able to reply… would help to understand what the reasoning is behind this 2 or 3 months business…
Thanks.
“Let’s guess. You own in Barrie, right?” – Garth
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Nope, can’t stand commuting. Especially the 400. However, it wouldn’t be all that bad to be sitting on a piece of property worth a cool 1/2 mill that I paid only a 150 grand for a few short years ago.
Those days are done. Recency bias. – Garth
Well the place we were refused entry and was subsequently plowed under is still empty (you can see it on google maps, hwy14 and I ave w, next to the movie theatre.). There is an In and Out burger at the exit.
but, GOOD NEWS! the next subdivsion just west on I ave has been ressurcted and has homes available, but nothing actually built, from just $396k. http://www.beazer.com ‘sunset landing’. Which is about the price we were looking at back in 2003. So in 15 years they are back to where they started….or nowhere at all.
Young couple in 2009 told that peak house in the GTA and golden horseshoe is present and advised that they should take their 60K down payment, invest in a balanced portfolio and and keep contributing whatever they could save, to their portfolio. Fast forward ahead 9 years in places like Barrie(d) where prices have more than doubled since then with absolutely no guarantee of a reversion to the mean. In the meantime rent rates have exploded into oblivion with absolutely no stability for families.
Good or bad decision?
Catastrophic most would say.
And if they had invested in Netflix? Arguments such as this, looking in the rear view, are useless. Those who cannot afford to buy real estate should not. One-asset strategies carry outsized risk. – Garth
#11 Leo
Obama was a career politician and socialist. You don’t want such a man focusing on the economy.
#53 SunShowers on 03.25.18 at 6:04 pm
“It’s a wealth tax, not a speculation tax. – Garth
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Wealth taxes are awesome though.
Taxing wealth and financial transactions is far more progressive than taxing income and consumption.
More of the former, less of the latter please!”
All taxes are “wealth taxes”. It doesn’t matter what kind of tax you call it, wealth tax, sin tax, carbon tax, HST, income tax, property tax, capital gains tax, road tax, license fee, I’m sure I missed a few, the net effect is the same: Money goes out of your pocket and in to the government’s pocket. And no matter where you put the tax, it is always represented in the prices you pay for goods and services, so no matter how progressive the tax system is, everyone pays.
The main reason why wealth & property taxes are the most insidious though, is that there is no avoiding them even if you have no income. Wealth taxes are in particular the worst of the worst because they devastate one’s ability to save for retirement or build a business. The closer a person gets to “the number” (the point at which they think they have enough to retire), the faster the government takes it away from them. Very hard to see how anyone could ever retire with a wealth tax as low as 2%.
Income taxes have the same effect, removing money you have and giving it to the government, but at least if you lose your job and have no income you don’t have to pay it until you start working again. With wealth and property taxes (and indeed HST and carbon taxes as well), even if you lose your job and have no income you have to pay those taxes. You can cut consumption to minimize the HST and carbon taxes, but wealth and property taxes burn right through your savings.
So it strikes my that I am not sure why you are lurking around on a financial site like this one, it seems to me you must be young and having no real assets saved for retirement, equity in your house, or business interests yet or you would not be advocating a wealth tax. You must be flat broke.
Another thing that is really terrible about BC’s “second home” or “speculator” tax is that many of those properties are probably mortgaged. So 2% on the value of the house is already devastating (as a reminder you have to come up with $12,000/year in after tax money to own a $600,000 condo on the lake that the locals do not need or want), but the actual equity in the property could be considerably less, meaning the tax as applied to equity could be multiples of 2%. This thing is going to devastate BC, just watch.
And it’s going to be the locals who get hit the hardest, not the rich. A lot of people in YVR bought houses over the years at 5-10 times annual income, a decision that could only be justified if the house price continues to rise dramatically because there is no way they could carry the house and also live without HELOCs. That game is finished now.
Grandma always said that you can afford a house that is 3-4 times your annual income, and not more. She was right. Not just from a cash flow perspective, because interest rates change. Not just from the perspective of being able to pay it off in 25 years. But also because of what’s about to happen. If you have a modest mortgage and don’t need HELOCs to live, you can survive a 25% housing correction and groove on. If your mortgage is so big you need to borrow money every month for groceries (and the implicit carbon taxes and HST), a 10% housing correction can wipe you out.
It’s going to be really funny to watch, actually. Because things are so bad in BC and Toronto, efforts to curb the market are at this point likely to put a great number, and I mean like 30% of the people, out on the street with a bad credit rating. Houses will get really, really affordable because nobody will qualify for a mortgage after having defaulted.
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#70 Chelsea on 03.25.18 at 7:15 pm
Mortgage pre approvals are likely not subject to B-20. They last 90-120 days. The last of them from December 2017 should be expiring end of April 2018. Those buyers will have to get a much cheaper house after their pre-approvals expire.. probably afford 20% less. So some of them will jump into buying while they have access to more credit … Even if it means paying relatively more now
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History shows equity markets rise during most tightening cycles. Maybe you should stick with your day job there at Sbux. – Garth
Garth – when do you think interest rates will start weighing on stocks? Warren Buffet has said interest rates are like gravity. If interest rates can whack RE – why not stocks – lots of this stuff is bought on margin and leveraged.
It takes 15 or so increases to affect markets. We are half way. – Garth
can you define ‘speculation’ and why its so bad and why ‘investing’ is good (bank sanctioned)
at least specs take out the garbage
#59 AK on 03.25.18 at 6:28 pm
Whatever happened to FreedomFirst ??
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He probably got a life.
Counting the days until I become an American citizen so I can vote for Mr. Trump.
MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!!
LACK OF CANDOR.
As the Real Estate market continues to correct (downward) a great number of buyers and sellers who trustingly relied upon professional advise will come to the sad conclusion, that the advice so freely given was in fact a “lack of candor”. Which to us mere mortals is something between a small white lie and a big fat self serving black lie.
There’s an old saying “you want to look smart, hang out with stupid people”. That is exactly what a lot of Real Estate oriented people ( agents, mortgage brokers , appraisers, bankers etc. have been doing, hanging out with naïve unsuspecting clients (buyers and sellers) who for years trusted these professional advisers to work in their best interest.
When confronted with their porky lies these same professionals will respond with ” at worst” I was not clear in my response, and because of what was going on around me , may well have been confused and distracted and for that I take full responsibility. But that is not ” lack of candor”.
Stop your 416 snobbery, Turner!
“the 2-hour commute to Toronto”
– I call BS, some days it’s less than 90 mins. one way
“Highway 400 will be a sad ride for a while.”
-never sad, we suburbanites always find ways to make it interesting :)
https://barrie.ctvnews.ca/barrie-woman-facing-charges-after-driving-the-wrong-way-on-hwy-400-1.3857481
“It takes 15 or so increases to affect markets. We are half way. – Garth”
Well ok, no need to sell our equity portfolios blog dogs … plenty of room for growth!
Greetings from Sbux!
I am lucky I don’t need to commute …. grandpa owns a whole bunch of hipster-friendly slanty semis, and I get a flat for cheap. But many of my contemporaries have to fork out ridiculous rents. Is there any sign of hope for average earners in the 416 …. ever again?
#76 Waiverless on 03.25.18 at 7:24 pm
Mortgage pre approvals are likely not subject to B-20. They last 90-120 days. The last of them from December 2017 should be expiring end of April 2018.
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Why does everyone assume that people were all lined up at their lenders on New Years Eve locking in their mortgage rates?
I would assume that most of the folks doing this in December were doing it weeks prior to Christmas so the B-20 rules are in effect for virtually all buyers by then end of March/beginning of April.
#66 akashic record on 03.25.18 at 6:57 pm
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—
Have you, really? :)
Garth
This all reminds me of Calgary, way back in 1979… we couldn’t save the deposit fast enough to catch up to the housing that we desired way out from the city. Coles notes version, we moved and by 1981 the dollar sales were all over the news. Yup, leave the keys on the sink and walk out the door.
Just lucky that we did not take the hook/line/sinker. That period of time was like a bad dream.
Ya try and tell yer kids…and they won’t believe ya. But then there was the Chev Vega too!!!
China Prepares Death Blow To The Dollar
https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/International/China-Prepares-Death-Blow-To-The-Dollar.html
#18 Dog in The Fight
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Do some research before you post – saves making yourself look ignorant.
I moved from BC 10years ago because of asthma attacks (children). The entire Valley is pooched for air quality. There’s countless reports on it – try reading.
Kids are doing great in Southern Ontario :-)
https://globalnews.ca/news/3649748/metro-vancouver-air-quality-worse-than-beijing-st-pauls-respirologist/
Work with a bunch of guys that all brought in Barrie and Innisfil in the last 5 years. I can tell you that the bottom has fallen out of those markets.
There simply is no market up there for 500K plus as there are no jobs. Almost everyone commutes.
Sure a house at 500K sounds great but remember that’s on one income as the wife will never find work in Barrie, add in GO train costs or vehicle costs and maint and your not really ahead.
there is no market above 500K without the people selling in the 416-905 and buying properties there.
@#41 Bossman on 03.25.18 at 5:24 pm
‘I don’t know a single ‘mom and pop’ speculator that has paid tax on their income properties’
I agree with you somewhat as I know several coworkers that own multiple properties. Essentially at the end of the year, they never show a profit or very little. If they buy a new TV for their own home, they write it off on their income properties. If they renovate their own home, they write it off, if they buy new furniture, they write it off. If they buy Raptors or Leafs tickets, or go to a restaurant, they write it off as entertainment. Yes, probably all illegal, but they ALL do it!
This is what having a corporation enables them to do, yes, they are spending money, but they are living a nice lifestyle. It has worked for them for years and years and perhaps the government is getting slightly smarter about it, they don’t want to go there, just like they backed off when physicians and small business started protesting. Personally, I find it frustrating and not fair, but they get away with it!
As for Barrie, I live here, bought for $378,000 in the summer of 2016, by the spring of 2017 similar houses were going for $550,000 to $600,000. People are irrational, not only in Barrie, but everywhere. Born and raised in Toronto…I love the city, but truthfully when I moved out here, beside amazing trails, skiing, fresh air, I just thought, why did I believe that Toronto was the centre of the universe. I can now live, enjoy the fact that I’m not mortgaged up to the ying yans, but yes, I do need to hold on to my job…just like everyone else! I drive the 400, 1-2X/week into T.O. for Work so I can deal with it, but yes it’s dangerous!!! Oh yeah, what about the house taxes in Barrie, there’s no business here, so they are some of the highest in the country!
Having a corporation does not entitle anyone to cheat and lie. As for Barrie. take your profits before they’re gone. – Garth
Yet in southern BC it’s more of the same. B20… what’s that? It’s been 3 months and crickets. Yah I know, wait for 6 months… wait for 12 months, wait 2 years for rates to rise, wait for this, wait for that, meanwhile it’s full steam ahead for (insert gender neutral term) market.
Totally agree with #36 – Dog In The Fight – People with money will pay anything for clean air, water and stable govt’s for their families and as safe havens to park their wealth. As societies from around the globe descend into chaos, run out of water, succumb to terrorist attacks and radical nationalisms, Canada is that gem that is welcoming, stable, clean and abundant.
Now for those that are hanging on waiting and wishing and hoping for YVR to crash land, forget about it. Time to stop dreaming.
#62 stage1dave on 03.25.18 at 6:38 pm
“…And lets stop producing opioids for a while too…there, epidemic solved…”
Oh sure, let’s joke about it. They’ve made prescription synthetic opioids much harder to get. (Bad news if you’ve got incurable pain).
Now addicts have switched to heroin, fentanyl, carfentanyl and other crap that they buy from the illegal market. Let’s stop that too, because people are dying in very large numbers.
Oh, they’ve already tried to stop it? For decades? Let’s take a look at the result: http://time.com/james-nachtwey-opioid-addiction-america
Frankly, the way that Portugal manages drugs is far more effective, cheaper and more humane.
#26 Bad Choices
“..and rents have almost doubled in the last year.”
Wildly and clearly incorrect, and I’m calling bs on this. By law, the maximum increase is 4% for 2018. My rent hasn’t changed a penny in three years. The owner wouldn’t dare try it.
Checkin’ futures. Wake me at VIX 25 to buy.
…
From the No Replacement for Displacement Dept: Not so fast?
Check out this Vette. From 60 to 120…MPH in 5 seconds. Super car performance on a beer budget. Torque for days, OHC tho – a slight nod toward progression.
https://www.instagram.com/p/BepyvR8FfGK/?taken-at=89964
Speaking of supercars…all the best stuff we know (food, clothes, cars) comes from Germany and Italy.
Did ya notice how hard our ruling elites tried to stomp these successes, with a succession of dictators (Musolini, Adolf) and then a Wall and now weaponsized financial/EU dealings w/migration.
Next one. Et tu, USA and T-rump?
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#86 Slowly Boiling Frogs on 03.25.18 at 8:38 pm
#76 Waiverless on 03.25.18 at 7:24 pm
Mortgage pre approvals are likely not subject to B-20. They last 90-120 days. The last of them from December 2017 should be expiring end of April 2018.
———————————————–
Why does everyone assume that people were all lined up at their lenders on New Years Eve locking in their mortgage rates?
I would assume that most of the folks doing this in December were doing it weeks prior to Christmas so the B-20 rules are in effect for virtually all buyers by then end of March/beginning of April.
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I didnt assume that – you have. I said ‘the last of them’ implying the few that are left.
But every one of those very last people that buys maintains the market illusion that there are still buyers out there for the inflted prices. Add in 2-3 months after that for the grind down to start – cause no one in their right mind would drop prices right away.
Facebook Has Been Storing Logs Of Phone Calls, Text Messages For Years: Report
… Only if you are one of those geniuses who trusted Zuck, who calls you… well, just google it.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03-25/facebook-has-been-storing-logs-phone-calls-text-messages-years-report
I don’t understand where the belief that rents have gone insane comes from. My ex has been in his 4 bedroom, 4 bathroom rental for the last 4 years and his rent has only increased by $80.
Unless you’re moving every year, rents can’t increase more than 1.8%.
This attitude of hysteria has got to go. Laws and policies based on fear are terrible and destructive, but unfortunately, this seems to be the spirit of the present age. I am so glad I have no kids.
https://news.ontario.ca/mho/en/2017/06/ontario-capping-rent-increases-for-tenants-in-2018.html
Anyways, Happy Easter!! Hooray for a four day work week!
#10 JKGalbraithRules on 03.25.18 at 1:58 pm
So, if this isn’t 2008 why so many empty shop fronts on main street downtowns and in the malls? From Canada to Manhattan NY. That along with the record gas prices at the pumps in Vancouver as well as high gas prices across the country, Canadian consumers being the most indebted in the World, $1.5 trillion in mortgages outstanding amongst 6 million borrowers of which 3 million have HELOCS to name a few things in Cda, record number of retailers going under, Cdn banks ranked highest risk along with Hong King and China….
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Nothing some diversity won’t fix…
So I went house shopping today. I saw 3 detached homes valued at 1.25 – 1.39 million in Brampton. They were about 3500 sq ft. I could not afford them, no where near. But it was nice to see what a late 20 something year old would have been able to afford 2 decades ago. Maybe 1 decade ago?
Anyways, I also saw a Semi-detached. It was 1800 sq ft. And it smelt bad! The Tenant was still living in the basement and was watching TV downstairs. If I know anything about landlord and tenant agreements, it will be difficult to get that man out of there.
Also, the big 3500 sq ft. houses were amazing! Why can’t they just be 500k again? Okay fine, 550k??
Garth, I work in downtown Toronto, where is a good affordable place for me to live in a detached house without having to commute that for hours? I need something affordable.
#75 MP from Steveston Announces on 03.25.18 at 7:23 pm
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#77 MP from Steveston Announces on 03.25.18 at 7:26 pm
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Say again? :)
#17 Big Kahuna on 03.25.18 at 2:48 pm
“For all those blaming Donald Trump for everything….”
You really are a whackjob, aren’t you?
#41 Bossman
“So tell us how to legally ‘get around’ paying capital gains tax on non-principal residences. – Garth”
Garth couldn’t be more correct. The only thing that confuses most people, is that as with other assets like bonds you don’t pay the tax until you sell. This capital gains tax already applies to vacation homes as well, only your primary residence is included. Tax also applies to any income made by renting out a second house even on a part time basis.
Let’s face it folks, there isn’t much in the way of taxation the government hasn’t already thought of except to take advantage of the fact that half of us have below average IQ so the can get away with calling a massive increase in the HST a “carbon tax” and telling us it is for our own good.
VanMan: “Totally agree with #36 – Dog In The Fight”
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Of course you do. Working in the same real estate office makes it easy to support each other, doesn't it?
Garth on #73
“And if they had invested in Netflix? Arguments such as this, looking in the rear view, are useless. Those who cannot afford to buy real estate should not. One-asset strategies carry outsized risk. – Garth”
Or Facebook. Google hasn’t been hit yet but they will be because they’ve been doing the same thing.
Oh and Tesla is probably going down too not only because they constantly lose money but also because they have pretty much proven Lithium Ion batteries are not a safe way to store energy in a vehicle that can be damaged and cause a short.
For those of you who are not engineers I’ll explain it as briefly as I can. Gasoline, while extremely volatile when mixed with oxygen is not volatile at all without the oxygen and it is stored in a puncture resistant tank in you car and protected by the frame (well, except for the Pinto and certain GM trucks from the 80’s). Thus, it cannot catch fire unless it gets out of the tank. That does happen from time to time but it’s pretty rare.
Batteries, on the other hand, contain both sides of the chemical equation and require no inputs you can control from the outside. Short a battery and it can catch fire, especially a high capacity lithium battery. And you can’t put it out with water that can make it worse. So the problem is that it is not easy to protect all the high power wires in an electric car from shorting in the case of an extreme accident, and that short can set the batteries to overheat and catch fire and all the chemicals that are required are already in the battery.
Lead acid batteries won’t do this, or at least I’ve never heard of it, although they can produce hydrogen if overcharged, which can go boom in the air. The reason lead acid batteries can’t burn is because they contain a lot of lead and water which acts as a heat sink if they get shorted and also they don’t contain nearly as much energy in the first place which is why they are not popular for powering electric cars. I mean they would work to do it, but extremely limited range and they are heavy.
Anyway my point is that there is more than one way to watch a sure fire investment catch on fire and burn to the ground.
#7 Steve French on 03.25.18 at 1:53 pm
#7 Steve French on 03.25.18 at 1:53 pm
“Nothing beside remains; round the decay
Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare,
The lone and level sands stretch far away”
Check out #1 baby! Yeah!
The Speculation, or I mean Wealth tax, will bring down the NDP here in BC. The NDP came to power promising so much on the premise others will pay. Now many ordinary British Columbians are realizing they are the ones actually paying. They don’t like it. No, nothing is free.
Just wait till gas goes to $1.70 a litre, the idea of carbon taxes and the like will become even less popular.
I was in Ontario in the early 90’s during the last real estate bust. It gets ugly quickly when you realize your house isn’t worth what your realtor says it is. Nothing worse than being stuck in a home that doesn’t sell.
It’s the new reality.
What’s happening in Barrie with housing is the same thing that is happening in Hamilton currently…a slow melt.
I bought a place on the Mountain six years ago and have done well with the GTA appreciation effect but would like to sell and cash out. But where do I go that is inexpensive? Certainly not the Niagara region or anywhere else it seems in Southern Ontario.
Keep telling my better half that there is only one place for a quieter more serene lifestyle….Nova Scotia. Still trying to convince her even as we tour the sub-continent.
I want to find an alternative word for Libralism. I hate using labels. It a cop out for people who lack intellect to put words together to defend there position.
This is what my search came up with.
alarming, astounding, awful, bad, daunting, dire, disheartening, dismaying, dreadful, fearful, formidable, frightening, frightful, ghastly, grim, grody, gross*, harrowing, heavy*, hideous, horrible, horrid, horrific, intimidating, mean, petrifying, scaring, shocking, terrible, terrifying, the end, unnerving
Oh and I forgot to add, some people might be thinking Facebook isn’t really in trouble, this privacy scandal will pass, but it won’t. The savvy tech users have always used Firefox for browsing, they use DuckDuckGo for searching, they are starting to use ButChut instead of Google to avoid censorship, and they are playing in the blockchain space.
The problem with the internet and computers in general is that software, while expensive to develop on the order of say Microsoft Office, is not scarce. Once it’s made you can copy it everywhere. Once you lose your customer’s trust you’re toast. Look at what happened to Lotus 1-2-3. (Ya, I’m old enough to remember that.)
Facebook is going to zero so if you have some sell. It’s easier to burn down a software company than a Tesla battery.
PS, Space-X is also a joke. They say they are so much cheaper than NASA but they are still only firing test rockets for the most part. Whereas Russia can get to the space station and back using tested technology for less money already. And they have heavy lift. Sure, they can’t reuse their rockets, but sometimes disposable is actually cheaper. That’s why there are no glass milk jugs anymore. You can’t wash a glass milk jug for less than you can recycle a plastic one.
*BitChute. I am sure ButChut will get the wrong sort of videos. Sorry.
#83 Barrie from Barrie
You consider a 90 minute one way commute acceptable? Yikes! I’ll do it to go skiing but not for work.
Christ every time I post something. I have to hit the active x control who’s caption reads submit.
You are a bastard Garth. Please get your IT guy to change submit to post. Or say something.
The word submit is offensive to a free spirit.
From what i am seeing,the real estate market in Barrie is
pooched although there are plenty of delusional sellers in the market at least at present. sales have tanked, after a pretty significant run up in costs in the last 2 years. the reality of daily 4 hour commutes,high divorce rates and completely unrealistic valuations is setting in.
seeing and hearing of many deals failing due to mortgage appraisal short falls,the smart money has bailed. expect to observe a epic correction by years end as reality sets in and stupidity is cut off at the knee by lenders moving to a “risk on” position before advancing mortgages in the area.
I think the concept of risk is not really fully understood by most people. my aunt lives in a nursing home who is under quarantine due to some virus or something. i was thinking she has medium alzheimers. she is not only in prison in her mind, she is in prison in a retirement home. what is the difference than a real prison. you get your unit, you have recreational activity you dont really do anything other than stay in your unit. and you cant leave, in jail you will come out, in the retirement home, you leave in a box. the meal list as well as the activity list is just like prison instead of in the elevator posting its on the common area.
whats my point, risk? my aunt didnt do anything wrong with her life, conservative, never married no kids. she saved some money and now the retirement home will take all her money to look after her while the guy next to her eats the same chicken and pays the home with what the free cheque from the government gives him.
not fair, but its our system, everyone eats.
back to risk, my buddy, sure he stole from others, did 4 years for fraud, and now lives in the bahamas. i know he has a cayman account with a couple million, sure he did wrong, he knew what he was doing and paid his dues, he said it wasnt that bad in jail borring he told me.
i am not saying we should be criminals or a nice aunt some take risks others dont. in the end risk is truely relative, its a very hard thing to evaluate and measure since some people worry for nothing and others throw caution to the wind every day of their life.
this concept of asset concentration of financial assets, or real property is a conceptual question, but in realty, some people are ok with paying the bank 40% of their take home pay for 25 years to have the privilege of living in a house, while others would like to pay a landlord for the same priviledge. the numbers may change based on location of course but in the end, risk is an individual assessment, i own bank stocks, i dont even look at them, while a guy i know looks at his chequing account every week, i asked do you think it will change or something, he said i am just checking to see if its still there. people are so funny.
risk is what my grandfather did, in 23 get on a boat from dublin to halifax. he didnt know anything, i bet you if he did his research he would not have come over.
and eventually his decision made my life possible. risk is part of life, we all have to do our part for humanity.
i think my aunt didnt really live, and as she enters the last few years of her life, i know for a fact that she will simply be a footnote in the family history while others and their poor wife choices, lifestyle choices that went wrong, buiness ventures that went wrong, much more of a colourful story. life is about risk, stories, experiences, i think about my aunt than anyone else in this world, as a framework of something not to do. no risk,
buying an overpriced house might be a financial over extension for some, but in the bigger picture its no risk at all. i am neither my grandfather nor my aunt, one extreme to another.
@Woburn #5:
The Cambridge Analytica scandal is only a new spin on a much older ploy. The funny part is that the etchiniques that were used to get Trump elected were developed by Americans trying to win ‘hearts and minds’ for NATO in Afghanistan and Iraq.
Read this, and tell me it doesn’t seem familiar:
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/another-runaway-general-army-deploys-psy-ops-on-u-s-senators-20110223
If culling info from Facebook profiles was enough target messages to influence the votes of US SenatorsSenators, culling FB to influence the votes of voters was the logical next step.
The NATO military in this article didn’t have a big enough database to accurately assess American voters’ motivations, but then along came Facebook and the ‘Cambridge’ cum Russia psychological researcher with the FB App, and a 50-million user sample set, and BAM!
Motive, and opportunity. The next step is a to determine what part the Russian troll farms played: did they harvest or collate the Facebook data, or were they given the CA to database by someone on the Trump team, (officially, or unofficially) where the Russians then used the CA info to direct ad buys on FB in key states, districts and precincts, with the goal of influencing the 2016 election. It was illegal to use such techniques on American Senators in 2012, and it’s still illegal for the US government to use such techniques on Americans today.
But Cambridge Analytica wasn’t an American company. (legally) and their whistle blower is a Canadian, so not technically illegal. Bot what if the combined info an expertise were sold by CA for profit, to other bidders? What if they were ‘donated’ by executives who were placed highly in the organization?
These are now the Questions: did the Trump team sell out the personal info of 50M Americans to the Russians? Did the Team give the info to the Russians as a quid pro quo for laundering ill-gotten wealth through Trump (and Kushner) branded condo-megaproject developments, throughout the global credit financing freeze – which gutted Real Estate development – of 2007-2009? Is any such influence continuing?
We will learn more in the coming days. Personally, my bet is that someone brought the voter targeting plan and the FB data set from CA to the Trump Campaign. Once there, the game plan, and the underlying information were transferred to the Russians, who then deployed it to help sway voters, and secure Russian influence in America as a result of the election.
The puzzle pieces are starting to become clear. How the pieces fit together has not yet been defined.
Of topic but interesting read.
https://splinternews.com/a-glimpse-into-the-bureaucratic-hell-of-denying-health-1823560356
If a speculator made a profit from flipping a property the gain is taxed as income and not as a capital gain.
If you rented out the property and held on to it for a while any gain on the sale is taxed as a capital gain.
I recall back in the early 1980’s Revenue Canada started auditing real estate sales to look for quick resales.
If the CRA believes that you purchased the property with the intent of selling it for a profit, it will likely consider it as business income.
http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/flipping-houses-expect-to-face-100-tax-on-your-profits
http://madanca.com/articles/entry/taxes-on-flipping-canadian-real-estate-capital-gains-vs-business-income/
http://taxsolutionscanada.com/is-house-flipping-considered-capital-gains-or-business-income/
Things that make you go umm…
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/north-american-governments-continued-spending-stokes-concerns-about-readiness-for-a-downturn/article38350146/
Here’s a song to celebrate the USD index this am:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=WEDnGAvjQXw
Lyric: ‘Michigan’s in the rear view now’
https://www.theice.com/products/194/US-Dollar-Index-Futures/data
New lyrics: ‘89’s in the rear view now’
#42 – Dog in the fight “There isn’t any industry left in the LM other than a couple of dying saw mills, and professional protesting. Cash gotta come from somewhere.”
You will learn. – Garth
They won’t, Garth. Because this is who they really are…lazy, spiteful, jealous, smug inhabitants of that province who refuse to see who is actually contributing in a large way to paying the bills in their province.
#57 @careeraftschool on 03.25.18 at 6:24 pm
—————————————————————–
Water pressure to low ?
You just met a modern day snake oil sales guy .
Dishwashers have their own pumps and don’t rely on water pressure . Once turned on the valve opens to let the water get to a certain level dictated by a float switch . Then the pump does the work . The water flow from the pump can be affected by clogged lines or clogged filters or a damaged impeller .
This ‘news’ article made me laugh. . Let the crying begin…
https://globalnews.ca/news/4104694/she-hasnt-even-owned-her-home-for-a-month-but-might-have-to-sell-because-of-b-c-s-speculation-tax/
BC is growing a bad rep quickly. Locals will be the ones who suffer. – Garth
“Astonishing to the locals was a 36.9% surge in house prices, catapulting the average through the half-million mark, to $547,847. Barrie was cheap and blue collar no more.”
Barrie is not cheap! It like the rest of the country is genocidally expensive!
I said, ‘cheap no more.’ Have a coffee. Wake up. – Garth
Liberal approval rating drops to 44% as women, middle class look to Tories: Ipsos poll
https://globalnews.ca/news/4104673/trudeau-liberals-approval-rating-down/
Discontent with the Trudeau Liberals has grown to such a level that if a federal election were held tomorrow, the Conservatives would romp to a comfortable win.
That’s according to a new Ipsos poll that found the Liberals to be hemorrhaging support even among their target demographics, namely the middle class, women and millennials, with many progressives increasingly weighing up a vote for the NDP.
#76 The Jaguar
They won’t, Garth. Because this is who they really are…lazy, spiteful, jealous, smug inhabitants of that province who refuse to see who is actually contributing in a large way to paying the bills in their province.
The folks that pay most of the taxes are the middle class. I know, math is hard. My best income year was $700,000, so I am not much worried about paying more tax. My neighbors that work in Saudia Arabia, China and Africa really hate this new tax. Gee I wonder why.
Because it is arbitrary and capricious. The same reason Albertans, Americans and Ontarians dislike it. This will be a self-inflicted wound on BC. – Garth
@ #102 NotLegalAdvice, it was never normal for 20-somethings to buy 3500 square foot homes. Ever. I’m not saying none did. But houses that size were, until recently, something rich people bought. 3500 square feet would have been called a “mansion” 20 years ago, without the quotation marks.
Bought a townhouse in Barrie back in 2008. Paid the princely sum of $168,000
Sold it in 2011 for $235,000
Same townhouses today are going for around $450,000
Neighbours were all each other’s cousins.
Favorite neighbourhood sport was chasing the wild turkeys.
Buses came once an hour, unless the driver had something else to do. Entire city is car dependant. Most popular Saturday destination is the Mapleview Drive strip mall complex.
Ahhh Barrie. I can still smell you.
400 was fun. Isn’t that the highway where people burned to death in their cars after a fuel tanker exploded?
@#57 @careeraftschool, #125 Darryl is right. Dishwashers have their own pump. That’s why if you put too much soap in them, they start growling and lose pressure. The internal pump can’t prime with all the foam.
Water pressure only affects the dishwasher’s ability to fill with water in the first place. But if you were not noticing water pressure issues elsewhere in the house (faucets, showers) then you never had a water pressure issue. Unless there’s something I’m missing, the kid charged you $40 for nothing.
crazy bidding wars in London, Ontario. 16 offers on one house in 30 minutes – asking $270, sold $330 no conditions. London is just outside the foreign buyer tax area… hmmmn.
Barry is a dump. Buffalo is better and 10-15 time cheaper.
——————————-
Total federal debt?
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/federal-government-apos-total-apos-110000638.html
Not 650 billion as you are told, but over a trillion. Federal debt on which interest is paid.
50 % of GDP.
More lies:
“Canada has the best balance sheet in the G7, and that advantage is getting better all the time,” said Dan Lauzon, Morneau’s director of communications.
“Compared to the size and strength of the overall economy, our debt is shrinking, and on track to be in the best position we’ve seen in almost 40 years.
If we add provincial debts it is very different picture.
Other G7 countries do not have it/the provincial debt burden.
Probably total provincial and federal liabilities around 80 % of GDP.
And then there is personal debt.
Over 100 % of GDP.
So Canada debt – personal, provincial, federal, not including corporate or municipal?
180 % of GDP.
Italy’s debt? (presented as total basket case in the media)?
government: 132.0% of GDP (2016)
Personal/household debt? 42 %
Total: 172 %.
A little humility is I believe appropriate.
Neighbours house just sold for $917,000 in 4 days. 2100ft2 house on a 5,000ft2 lot. I could have bought it in 2011 for 580K.
Market is still active, listings down, but lack of listings is the only thing keeping prices up.
Because it is arbitrary and capricious. The same reason Albertans, Americans and Ontarians dislike it. This will be a self-inflicted wound on BC. – Garth
You don’t know for certian the impact of the tax, and why should I care. If you are a wrinkle and live in Ontario or Alberta simply become residents of BC and pay provincial tax here. Then everyone is happy. Well almost.
But
116 Smoking Man on 03.26.18 at 1:21 am sez:
“Every time I post something. I have to hit the active x control who’s caption reads submit.
You are a bastard Garth. Please get your IT guy to change submit to post. Or say something.
The word submit is offensive to a free spirit.”
———————————————————
Shouldn’t be feminists posting here then….
Ahhhhh Barrie, I worked up there for a year and a half and tried to get a job up there but to no avail. Decent jobs are few and far between and RVH and Georgian are managed poorly (worked for one).
Even on the weekends the traffic on the 400 is getting bad with construction and cottage traffic. Hubby and I have sat in massive cottage traffic because the family had to have a birthday party late on a Sunday. Ugh.
Told my brother-in-law to sell his Barrie house back in late 2016 NOW, when their 250k house was worth 500k.
But they decided to want until they bought a new house in Innisfil instead. Couldn’t nab a place for a reasonable offer, now they are stuck in Barrie. Thankfully, they can still afford the place.
Ha now that was funny, Stormy Daniels interview yesterday on 60 minutes tell all. What did we learn about Donald Trump, nothing new? We already knew that he was a low life cheating back stabbing philanderer who uses intimidation tactics to unnerve his opponents.
The response from Trump last night…..chirp, chirp, chirp that is the sound of crickets my friends.
Classic Trump so what does he do today?
Trump expelling 60 Russian diplomats in wake of UK nerve agent attack. Does Donald Trump think we are all that stupid? I guess he does.
Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_nc2GSjmsYQ
#39 Smoking Man on 03.25.18 at 5:16 pm
#11 Leo Trollstoy on 03.25.18 at 2:00 pm
the US economy is doing and will do better is due to pro-business decisions by Trump
https://www.investors.com/politics/commentary/trump-just-did-something-obama-never-could-deliver-on-promised-gdp-growth/
Obama just wasn’t focused on the economy. he had 10 years to turn things around and just didn’t know what to do
……
Just did a ten mile walk through the heart of Corona Del Mar. Almost every retail shop has help wanted adds in their windows. The economy is not booming. It’s exploding. Super high rates to follow.
The wife got s manicure and a peddy. I just did a peddy. Bill 95 USD and the place was packed.
Those rates will follow in Canada. Real Estate is going to be a shit asset class for the next 5 to 10 years.
________________________________________
No worry for you Smoking Man since you don’t have any real estate. Your placard and small space under the bridge is still reserved for you and the rest of the winos.
No wonder you hate teachers, your illiterate, uneducated and uninformed.
https://www.factcheck.org/2017/09/obamas-final-numbers/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2017/12/14/comparing-the-trump-economy-to-the-obama-economy/?utm_term=.f48b90d22d6e
http://www.macleans.ca/economy/economicanalysis/trumps-economy-looks-just-like-obamas-except-for-one-important-thing/
Garth, tell us something new. Highway 400 will be a sad ride for a while. Drove up there last weekend just to check on my place and even on a Saturday in March its hell to drive. It has been a sad ride every year since I inherited a cottage up in the hinterlands. Thank god I didn’t pay for it. My brother and his family love it my wife and three children love it. I enjoy it only for a couple of weeks in the summer then I want out of it. Could never imagine living up there and doing the commute.
Properties are unbelievably cheap in Brampton. You can pretty much get a 3,000 sft house on a huge lot for $600,000 to $650,000. Unbelievable.
houses in the danforth and coxwell area are going for about 20%+ over asking. seems that all houses in Toronto will one day find the happy medium of $1.2MM as a price and go from there.
they’re not going down – no B20, no bank of mom bans no nothing. its been 10+ years of this shit straight lining to the top.
despite fundamentals absolutely having NOTHING to do with house prices. I can understand premiums for location, but to this effect? Unreal. Incomes flat, cost of living going up, and prices UP UP AND AWAY!
Another great post GT! You forgot to mention how many Audi dealers are in Barrie. I still see condos on very tiny lots in Penticton using pressed cornflakes for siding and on the roof. Can you see leaky condo. These are selling for ridiculously expensive amounts. No yard, privacy- what’s that. Many were sold before the new lending policies came in. Should be interesting what happens in a few months.
AGuyInVancouver on 03.25.18 at 3:41 pm
#18 Dog in The Fight
Indeed, Garth didn’t explain his opinion why Urban YVR would be exempt from this correction…
Where did I say ‘exempt’? It’s a matter of degree. – Garth
_____
Because people are too chicken to use words like “money laundering”.
Back in the late 40’s my Grandpa looked around at his home country and decided it was time to bail out of Europe. He took his family to Canada and started over.
Back in the early 80’s, my parents looked at their once thriving heavy industrial blue collar city, and decided it was time to bail. We sold everything and moved to southern Ontario and started over.
Every single grandparent, uncle and aunt I have on both sides of the family were not born here. Once in Canada, everyone eventually moved on again to other Cities, Provinces, even Countries seeking a better life, and chasing their dreams.
Today, miraculously; I am still here. Other than myself, moving on has benefited every single other person in my extended family in one way or another.
Folks who can’t buy and are going broke on rent need to just move. It’s a time honoured antibiotic for eliminating a stubborn outbreak of stupid in your lives. War, economic decline, the pursuit of happiness and an infinity of other reasons have caused folks the world over to “just bail” since history began.
Obviously, if you sit there in sack cloth and ashes bellyaching about how expensive everything is, but refuse to move – then you need to fermer la pie hole Qui? Sh!t or get off the pot, no one wants to hear it.
#134 Stan Brooks
Barry is a dump. Buffalo is better and 10-15 time cheaper.
——————————————
A dump you say? I assume you’ve never been on Granville Street in down town Vancouver.
And it’s 15 times more.
You can’t wash a glass milk jug for less than you can recycle a plastic one.
____
That’s because you’ve got all the homeowners guilted into rinsing out the jugs, sorting all the materials, and hauling it out to the curb — for free :).
In my area they coerce you with garbage bag tags too. (ie. if you toss something that is recyclable – you pay for it via more bag tags).
“I’m aware that both of the states/cities with the most restrictive gun laws in the USA are Chicago and NYC…they also share the highest body count.”…another wonderful example of how fact and reality diverge.
Of course NYC and Chicago have the “highest body counts” they’re the largest metropolitan areas in the US. Now do they also have the highest body counts per capita? I don’t know, just asking. The body count per capita is the only important stat.
#112 Smoking Man on 03.26.18 at 12:55 am
“I want to find an alternative word for Libralism [sic]. I hate using labels. It [is] a cop[-]out for people who lack [the] intellect to put words together to defend the[ir] position.”
Hey, Smokey. There’s no such word as “libralism”; the word you’re searching for is the word liberalism, and here’s its definition:
1 : the quality or state of being liberal
2 b : a theory in economics emphasizing individual freedom from restraint and usually based on free competition, the self-regulating market, and the gold standard (see gold standard 1)
c : a political philosophy based on belief in progress, the essential goodness of the human race, and the autonomy (see autonomy 2) of the individual and standing for the protection of political and civil liberties; specifically : such a philosophy that considers government as a crucial instrument for amelioration of social inequities (such as those involving race, gender, or class).
Here are a couple of book recommendations: 1) How Democracies Die by Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt (Crown Publishing, 2018), and 2) The Retreat of Western Liberalism by Edward Luce (Atlantic Monthly Press, 2017).
Oh, that’s right, I forgot. You don’t read books; you burn them! :)
#148 Damifino on 03.26.18 at 11:54 am
#134 Stan Brooks
Barry is a dump. Buffalo is better and 10-15 time cheaper.
——————————————
A dump you say? I assume you’ve never been on Granville Street in down town Vancouver.
And it’s 15 times more.
—————————————————————-
Yep. Granville and Georgia. Beggers on every corner and fighting over their territory. Most people who live there don’t notice them because its become so common and the rest are glued to their Iphones so they don’t notice anything. But everyone wants to live there cause it’s the BPOE.
Did you ever stop and think that maybe it isn’t arbitrary and capricious at all, and that maybe it is an attempt to solve a persistent and troubling problem here? I don’t know why you think BC’s economy should depend on selling “vacation” properties to rich people from out of province. Where else has that ever worked? Banff? Cuba? Mexico? No thanks. I’d rather be a poorer person in a province I can afford than (arguably) getting trickled-down-on by rich people who want extra houses.
Actually, given the choice in the matter, I would rather be too poor to afford this province without foreign buyers than too poor to afford it with them. It’s all the same to me, and at least I won’t have to look at as many big trucks with JAFA plates all day long.
#112 Smoking Man on 03.26.18 at 12:55 am
I want to find an alternative word for Libralism. I hate using labels. It a cop out for people who lack intellect to put words together to defend there position.
This is what my search came up with.
alarming, astounding, awful, bad, daunting, dire, disheartening, dismaying, dreadful, fearful, formidable, frightening, frightful, ghastly, grim, grody, gross*, harrowing, heavy*, hideous, horrible, horrid, horrific, intimidating, mean, petrifying, scaring, shocking, terrible, terrifying, the end, unnerving, Smoking Man
Are sealed . Premium to pay for hogtown
Folks who think they will be able Buy an average house for $650,000 are flat out nuts.
Ship sailed
#14 Rargary on 03.25.18 at 2:15 pm
“…We just bought a drastically reduced price home in central of city. Finally starting to pay into my TFSA… hoping to max it by end of year.. things are looking up!..”
_________________________
“Finally starting to pay into my TFSA”???? So you’re one of “those” who’ve been bamboozled by the RE marketing machine. Son, never, ever ignore investment into TFSA and RRSP – always pay yourself first. ALWAYS maximize TFSA and RRSP first, then buy a house you can afford with whatever money is left over. If there is not enough money left over, D O N O T B U Y R E A L E S T A T E!!
Every opportunity lost in maximizing investment into TFSA/RRSP increases risk that you will retire poor. Liquid assets are king. RE is not liquid and does not pay an income.
#74 Nonplused on 03.25.18 at 7:19 pm
I don’t often comment, but have to jump in on this one.
Generally, I think that Nonplused’s comments are great, but this one is a bit off.
Wealth and income should be taxed differently, but with a much heavier bias towards unproductive “wealth”.
Gov’ts use taxes to fill the coffers, but they also use taxes to incentivize / decentivize behaviours (think sin tax on cigarettes/booze etc.)
I fail to understand why a gov’t would want to decentivize productivity (essentially income) in favour of unproductive wealth hording.
In the low rate / mis-allocation of capital era, gov’t needs to do anything possible to make productive assets great again. This has to include rebalancing how capital is taxed.
Please help me understand why someone selling a YVR house 2 years after buying pays $0 tax on a $400,000 gain, and someone working for 2 years earning a total of $400,000 pays approx $200,000 in tax.
Which of these two behaviours is more valued, which should be incentivized?
For the record, I’ve got a pretty strong libertarian bent and have a hard time with gov’t interference in general, but that’s another conversation ;)
Taxing wealth eliminates the incentive to save and be financially secure. The end result is a population dependent on government. Are you actually arguing for that? – Garth
#143 torontorocks on 03.26.18 at 11:27 am
houses in the danforth and coxwell area are going for about 20%+ over asking. seems that all houses in Toronto will one day find the happy medium of $1.2MM as a price and go from there.
they’re not going down – no B20, no bank of mom bans no nothing. its been 10+ years of this shit straight lining to the top.
==================
Houses where? Danforth and Coxwell? 1.2 mil? Really?
Fair value in my mind of max 350 k in this specific place. Max.
#125 Darryl on 03.26.18 at 8:18 am
#57 @careeraftschool on 03.25.18 at 6:24 pm
—————————————————————–
Water pressure to low ?
You just met a modern day snake oil sales guy .
Dishwashers have their own pumps and don’t rely on water pressure . Once turned on the valve opens to let the water get to a certain level dictated by a float switch . Then the pump does the work . The water flow from the pump can be affected by clogged lines or clogged filters or a damaged impeller .
////////////////////////
My Miele dishwasher used a timer to fill the dishwasher to the appropriate amount. If the water pressure was to low you were able to adjust the timer to run longer in order to fill.
Taxing wealth eliminates the incentive to save and be financially secure. The end result is a population dependent on government. Are you actually arguing for that? – Garth
========================
There is no wealth in Canada.
Only debt.
4.1 trillion of government debt and liabilities alone in 2014.
https://www.fraserinstitute.org/sites/default/files/canadian-government-debt-2014-rev2.pdf
+ record household debt.
#126 Reddy
Holy crap… the comments on that article are insane!
I thought the nutbars who showed up here were full of vitriol.
And it’s not even Zerohedge or some commie echo chamber… it’s GlobalNews!
Rage and intolerance in BC getting scary. I would probably look at getting out of town in an environment like that, tax or no tax.
#148 Damifino on 03.26.18 at 11:54 am
#134 Stan Brooks
Barry is a dump. Buffalo is better and 10-15 time cheaper.
______________________________________
Buffalo is a great city. However, if you move your residence to the U.S., you lose OHIP health insurance coverage, even when working full-time in Canada and paying income taxes in Canada. I checked.
#157 AJM on 03.26.18 at 1:20 pm
Taxing wealth eliminates the incentive to save and be financially secure. The end result is a population dependent on government. Are you actually arguing for that? – Garth
Taxing income eliminates the incentive to be productive, ultimately resulting in a population dependent on government generated asset bubbles and an endless supply of greater fools. Are you actually arguing for that? – AJM
One could argue this is the reason for the house horniness we’ve seen in this country recently. Net, it’s made a hell of a lot more sense tying capital up in real estate that is has to deploy human capital over the past 20+ years. We’ve now got a nation of people in their most “productive” years of life that are convinced the only way to be wealthy is by leveraging every penny they can get their hands on and buying real estate…
In all fairness, it doesn’t make much sense to talk about this in binary terms, but it also don’t make much sense to defend the status quo either.
ps. big fan of the blog Garth – appreciate the opportunity to share and hear your feedback.
#95 A Yank in BC on 03.25.18 at 9:45 pm
#26 Bad Choices
“..and rents have almost doubled in the last year.”
Wildly and clearly incorrect, and I’m calling bs on this. By law, the maximum increase is 4% for 2018. My rent hasn’t changed a penny in three years. The owner wouldn’t dare try it.
——–
Well your situation must be the only truth right?
The RTA allows a maximum increase of 2% plus inflation.
Of course, the use of fixed term tenancy agreements (which the province just got rid of) allowed owners to increase the rent by whatever percentage they wanted – or you would have to vacate the premises. As such, rents went wildly up.
So if you think rents only went up 4% try giving you place up and seeing what you would now pay for a place. If you are in South Vancouver Island, I guarantee you will be spending a double digit increase in rent….
Smoky, Gravy Train is right.
Liberalism used to mean freedom. I know you meant Liberals as in the modern use, so there’s only one word:
Statist.
ie, someone who hates personal freedom and believes the state should do everything, which are all Canadian political parties except for the Conservatives.
#118Cross-best post ever on this site-the observation of the retirement home vs the minimum security prison was great.
DELETED
Just bought a big chunk of VFV today, buying the “dip”.
It’s always a good day when you can get a piece of the Standard and Poor’s 500 for less than net asset value. Don’t let these opportunities pass you by…….
#94 SW
I’m all for Portugal’s approach, lets decriminalize “drug abuse” and treat it as the social condition it is. I’m tired of wars on nouns, anyway. My comment about opioids was directed about the incredibly large supply available for a need that is obviously much smaller. Do the manufacturers actually care about where a good portion of this stuff is winding up?
#150 LivinLarge
Here’s violent crime stats per 100K of population. https://www.forbes.com/forbes/welcome/?toURL=https%3A//www.forbes.com
Detroit and St Louis top the list! NYC doesn’t make the top 20 in violent crime, btw.
Murder by gun stats per 100K: https://www.cbsnews.com/pictures/death-by-gun-top-20-states-with-highest-rates/3/
Utah and Georgia tied fer top spot! Indiana comes in 3rd. Interestingly, Indiana is the only state on the top 20 with permits required for gun purchases.
Here’s a quick read that hilights the downward trend of gun deaths in NYC compared to Chicago: http://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/nyc-crime/new-york-city-murder-rate-heading-historic-police-article-1.3468067
This is all pretty grim stuff, but the dichotomy I see is the level of gun violence despite both these states (NY and IN) having a paper process in place to (supposedly) regulate their purchase. Apparently peeps who want to kill someone can still find one!
BC is growing a bad rep quickly. Locals will be the ones who suffer. – Garth
_ _ _
If housing prices come down, locals will win. Sure a few who bought in the last couple years might get burnt, but you haven’t shared any tears for that group in Barrie, have you?
If the message gets out from Shanghai to Switzerland that BC is no longer a good place to try and hide your wealth in residential real estate, we all win.
#169 stage1dave on 03.26.18 at 3:43 pm
This is where i get my numbers, not from some flashy shiny slides.
https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s
https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2016/crime-in-the-u.s.-2016
https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2016/crime-in-the-u.s.-2016/tables/table-22
https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2016/crime-in-the-u.s.-2016/tables/table-12
separation of religion and state
Iran changes within
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-03-26/iranian-revolution-shiite-clerics-are-standing-up-to-khamenei
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The impeachment bill prompted a rare rebuke from the chief justice of the Pennsylvania Supreme Court, Thomas Saylor, a Republican who dissented from the redistricting ruling. “Threats of impeachment directed against Justices because of their decision in a particular case are an attack upon an independent judiciary, which is an essential component of our constitutional plan of government,” he said in a statement.
Impeachment of the justices requires a majority vote in the state House and two-thirds in the Senate. Republicans currently control 120 of 203 seats in the House and 34 of 50 seats in the Senate, giving them just enough votes to remove the justices if every Republican votes for the measure. Dush says he’s received assurances from the leaders of the Pennsylvania legislature that they’ll allow a vote on his bill.
In all three of these states—Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina—courts have struck down redistricting maps drawn by Republicans. As their hold on power becomes less secure with the prospect of a Democratic wave in 2018, the GOP is only amplifying its attacks on the judiciary.
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These guys have guns and are licensed!
atomwaffen :
hyper-violent book: “Siege.” The 563-page book collects and organizes the monthly newsletters produced during the 1980s by an old-line neo-Nazi activist named James Mason.
Read the Chilling Texts of Nazis Celebrating the Murder of a Jewish Teen
An internal Atomwaffen document obtained by ProPublica shows members scattered across 23 states and Canada.
A.C. Thompson, Ali Winston and Jake Hanrahan
https://www.motherjones.com/crime-justice/2018/03/read-the-chilling-texts-of-nazis-celebrating-the-murder-of-a-jewish-teen/
#162 Niagara Region on 03.26.18 at 1:56 pm
#148 Damifino on 03.26.18 at 11:54 am
#134 Stan Brooks
Barry is a dump. Buffalo is better and 10-15 time cheaper.
______________________________________
Buffalo is a great city. However, if you move your residence to the U.S., you lose OHIP health insurance coverage, even when working full-time in Canada and paying income taxes in Canada. I checked.
====================
How Canadian, Eh?
Paying taxes, no benefits.
Pay your taxes there.
168 Ace Goodheart on 03.26.18 at
“The dip” is just a post 2008 fake manipulated market phenomenon. Stocks don’t always just go up, as we will see at some point very soon most likely.
MF
@ Nonplused on 03.26.18 at 12:41 am
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Re: Tesla — how does it continue to maintain it’s 5 Star Crash Rating across all product lines?
#167 Big Kahuna on 03.26.18 at 3:20 pm
DELETED
Cat got your tongue? :)
can’t hide behind the platform :phantom sense
This case is the first time the U.S. government has targeted a company and its leaders for assisting a criminal organization by providing them with technology to “go dark,” or evade law enforcement’s detection of their crimes.
“By shutting down Phantom Secure, criminals worldwide no longer have that platform to conduct their dangerous criminal activities.”
Nicholas Cheviron, special agent, FBI San Diego
“The indictment of Vincent Ramos and his associates is a milestone against transnational crime,” said FBI Director Christopher Wray. “Phantom Secure allegedly provided a service designed to allow criminals the world over to evade law enforcement to traffic drugs and commit acts of violent crime without detection. Ramos and his company made millions off this criminal activity, and our takedown sends a serious message to those who exploit encryption to go dark on law enforcement. I want to thank our partners at the Department of Justice, as well as our Australian and Canadian law enforcement partners, for their incredible work on this case.”
https://www.fbi.gov/news/stories/phantom-secure-takedown-031618
#174 MF on 03.26.18 at 4:51 pm
“Stocks don’t always just go up, as we will see at some point very soon most likely.”
Market timing again, MF? How’s that working for you? :)
#106 oncebittwiceshy on 03.26.18 at 12:28 am
VanMan: “Totally agree with #36 – Dog In The Fight”
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
Of course you do. Working in the same real estate office makes it easy to support each other, doesn't it?
__________________________
So anyway… I've already replied time and time again that I am NOT a realtor, NOT in the real estate business nor make my livelihood from the industry. I am merely one who lives in Vancouver and as such mingles with locals at the grocery store, dog park, playground, sporting events, the office, on transit, etc. Those of us here as boots on the ground believe what we see with our own eyes. Speculators (both foreign and domestic…mostly foreign), AirBNB, low-interest rates and a city set in the most beautiful area of Canada with a temperate climate are the catalysts for the real estate values. Add in an absolute obsession for real estate and you have the formula for the current market conditions.
My point is that prices in Vancouver will never retract in any meaningful way from where they currently reside (in the $600K-$3m range). If there is even the slightest blip than it gets snapped up. If you're waiting on the sidelines to vultch then your a few years too late. It ain't going to happen here. Locals who are priced out and want in are praying for this big crash, well guess what… it's not happening.
As I've stated in the past, it's not just foreigners who are the problem. It's locals too. In my circle of friends, there are at least a half dozen that individually owns more than 2 properties in Vancouver. For some, it's 6 or more. It's an absolute obsession. It's every topic of conversation all day, every day. In Vancouver, people pride themselves on how many units they own. The debt load does not matter… the only thing that matters is the accumulation of hard assets. I don't see what's going to change this. Sadly, not even an increase in rates… because as stated there is always someone else.
#162 Niagara Region on 03.26.18 at 1:56 pm
#148 Damifino on 03.26.18 at 11:54 am
#134 Stan Brooks
Barry is a dump. Buffalo is better and 10-15 time cheaper.
______________________________________
Buffalo is a great city. However, if you move your residence to the U.S., you lose OHIP health insurance coverage, even when working full-time in Canada and paying income taxes in Canada. I checked.
====================
How Canadian, Eh?
Paying taxes, no benefits.
Pay your taxes there.
_______________________________________
Paying U.S. taxes alone would make one eligible for only whatever coverage remains of Obamacare. Even then, one would have to pay for that coverage.
By moving one’s residence to the U.S., a person loses a stable, government-funded health insurance (OTIP) for unpredictable, increasingly expensive U.S. health insurance. Unless a worker gets U.S. health insurance through an employer, the price of that insurance is staggering. Even when a worker does get health insurance through the employer, it is typically extremely expensive, in terms of both the premiums and the co-pays.
U.S. healthcare leaves a person open to great financial risk: prior to the 2008 housing disaster, medical bills were the number one reason why American women declared bankruptcy.
(I am a dual Canadian/U.S. citizen who worked in the U.S. in three different states over the course of two decades and who has experienced first-hand the enormity of U.S. healthcare bills, even though I had what is considered top-notch health insurance through my employers. Btw, I do pay both Canadian and U.S. taxes now.)
RE: #174 MF on 03.26.18 at 4:51 pm
“The dip” is just a post 2008 fake manipulated market phenomenon. Stocks don’t always just go up, as we will see at some point very soon most likely.
MF”
True, very true. Stocks don’t always go up.
However, the S&P 500 always does:
http://www.fedprimerate.com/s-and-p-500-index-history-chart.htm
Cheers!